摩根士丹利 (MS) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to Morgan Stanley's third-quarter 2026 earnings call. On behalf of Morgan Stanley, I will begin the call with the following information and disclaimers. This call is being recorded.

早安。歡迎參加摩根士丹利 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。我謹代表摩根士丹利，以以下資訊與免責聲明開始本次會議。本次會議將被錄音。

During today's presentation, we will refer to our earnings release and financial supplement, copies of which are available at morganstanley.com. Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially.

在今天的簡報中，我們將引用我們的財報新聞稿與財務補充資料，其副本可於 morganstanley.com 取得。今天的簡報可能包含前瞻性陳述，該等陳述受風險與不確定性影響，可能導致實際結果與所述內容出現重大差異。

Morgan Stanley does not undertake to update the forward-looking statements in this discussion. Please refer to our notices regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures that appear in the earnings release. This presentation may not be duplicated or reproduced without our consent.

摩根士丹利不承諾更新本次討論中的前瞻性陳述。請參閱財報新聞稿中關於前瞻性陳述與非 GAAP 衡量指標的相關聲明。未經我們同意，本簡報不得複製或重製。

I will now turn the call over to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Ted Pick.

接下來我將把電話交給董事長兼執行長 Ted Pick。

Thank you, operator. Good morning and thank you for joining us. In the third-quarter, Morgan Stanley delivered strong performance on the top and bottom lines with Firm net revenue of $20.3 billion and earnings per share of $3.03, with a return on tangible equity of 22.6%, this quarter marks our fifth consecutive quarter above 20%, speaking to the consistent strength of our global franchise. Total client assets across Wealth and Investment Management grew by nearly $400 billion during the quarter to a record $10.5 trillion.

謝謝接線員。各位早安，感謝各位加入。第三季，摩根士丹利在營收與獲利兩端皆繳出強勁表現：全公司淨營收 203 億美元、每股盈餘 3.03 美元，有形股東權益報酬率（ROTCE）為 22.6%；本季是我們連續第五季高於 20%，彰顯我們全球特許經營業務一貫的強勁實力。財富管理與投資管理的客戶資產總額在本季增加近 4,000 億美元，達到創紀錄的 10.5 兆美元。

Against the complicated backdrop, the quarter's overall performance speaks to the momentum of the integrated firm. Wealth Management continues to scale as clients entrust us with additional assets and deepen their relationships with Morgan Stanley. Wealth had a record quarter with revenues of over $9 billion with milestone levels of net new assets of $232 billion and fee-based flows of $80 billion. This sustained performance reflects the strength of our financial advisers. The breadth of our unique capabilities and product offerings and the trusted partnerships that distinguish our integrated firm.

在複雜的背景之下，本季整體表現展現出整合型公司的動能。財富管理持續擴張規模，客戶將更多資產託付給我們，並加深與摩根士丹利的關係。財富管理創下單季新高，營收超過 90 億美元；淨新增資產達到里程碑水準 2,320 億美元，費基資金流入 800 億美元。這樣的持續表現反映出我們財務顧問團隊的實力。也反映出我們獨特能力與產品供給的廣度，以及使我們整合型公司脫穎而出的可信賴合作夥伴關係。

Institutional Securities delivered $10 billion of revenue, up 18% year-over-year. Equities led the way with another outstanding quarter at $5.8 billion. Clients largely remained active as we deepened engagement across our global franchise. On the forward, banking pipelines remain high and strategic dialogues inside corporate board rooms are active and generally receptive to action. Clients are seeking advice to capitalize on the current dynamic growth environment while accepting some additional structural volatility.

機構證券業務營收 100 億美元，年增 18%。股票業務再度領先，繳出 58 億美元的亮眼單季表現。隨著我們在全球特許經營版圖中加深互動，客戶整體上仍維持活躍。展望未來，投資銀行業務管線仍維持高檔，企業董事會內部的策略性對話活躍，且整體而言對採取行動持開放態度。客戶正尋求建議，以把握當前充滿動能的成長環境，同時接受一些額外的結構性波動。

Pent-up demand and catalysts to drive scale and productivity and a more constructive regulatory backdrop, support an ongoing favourable outlook for investment banking activity. In short, we remain positive about the ongoing ability to monetize the corporate finance life cycle across the investment bank.

累積需求、推動規模與生產力的催化因素，以及較為建設性的監管背景，支持投資銀行活動持續的正向展望。簡言之，我們仍對投資銀行在企業財務生命週期各環節持續變現的能力保持正面看法。

Stepping back, the third-quarter unfolded in two distinct phases. July and August were unusually brisk, as risk appetite was dominated by hyperscaler investment in the build-out of the AI ecosystem. In contrast, as Labor Day approached we observed the headwinds of renewed tensions in the Middle East and higher interest rates globally as central banks move to keep inflation at bay. Market volumes were slower across asset classes as investors and institutional actors gauged risk-reward into the fourth-quarter and year-end.

回頭看，第三季可分為兩個截然不同的階段。7 月與 8 月異常熱絡，風險偏好主要受超大規模雲端業者（hyperscalers）投資建置 AI 生態系所主導。相較之下，隨著勞動節將近，我們觀察到中東緊張局勢再起，以及全球利率走高（各國央行為抑制通膨而採取行動）所帶來的逆風。投資人與機構參與者在評估進入第四季與年底的風險報酬之際，各資產類別的市場成交量普遍放緩。

As we move through October, the two known unknowns that we wrote about in our March shareholder letter, namely the acceleration of AI at the enterprise level and the risks associated with geopolitical conflict have reached a critical juncture. And the glass is mostly full camp. The enormous capital, which continues to be raised and deployed across the AI ecosystem toward efficiency, resiliency and productivity is driving US nominal GDP growth of 5% to 6%.

進入 10 月，我們在 3 月致股東信中提到的兩個「已知的未知數」——亦即企業層級 AI 加速，以及地緣政治衝突相關風險——已來到關鍵轉折點。而「杯子大多是滿的」那一派占上風。持續在 AI 生態系中被募集並投入於效率、韌性與生產力的龐大資本，正推動美國名目 GDP 成長達 5% 至 6%。

Large-cap corporate earnings continue to move higher. The economy is at full employment. The Fed is focused on managing long-term inflation expectations and the salutary effects of common sense regulation are kicking in. In the glass is half empty cap, persisting conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, meaningfully higher benchmark interest rates, and energy prices around the developed world. Elevated asset prices in a fourth year of a bull market for equities and uncertain electoral and policy responses in both the US and globally are reasons to be more cautious.

大型企業獲利持續走高。經濟處於充分就業。聯準會聚焦於管理長期通膨預期，而常識性監管所帶來的正面效果也正在顯現。在「杯子半空」那一派看來，中東與烏克蘭的衝突延宕、基準利率顯著走高，以及已開發世界各地的能源價格，都是不利因素。此外，股市多頭市場進入第四年、資產價格偏高，以及美國與全球選舉與政策回應的不確定性，都是需要更為審慎的理由。

As we move into the fourth-quarter, it is clear to us now that these two known unknowns and how they interact and which of the third-quarter's narratives, half full or half empty holds the upper hand, will drive investor and corporate behaviour into year-end and into the first half of 2027.

邁入第四季，我們已清楚看到：這兩個「已知的未知數」及其相互作用，以及第三季兩種敘事（杯子半滿或半空）何者占上風，將驅動投資人與企業在年底前、以及 2027 年上半年期間的行為。

Against either backdrop, financial strength remains a key pillar of Morgan Stanley. We continue to actively support clients while remaining well capitalized. Our very healthy level of excess capital with 300 basis points of excess CET1 contributes to our financial strength and affords us with substantial flexibility ahead. We look forward to continued dialogue and upcoming transparency as our regulators finalize the bank capital regulatory framework.

無論背景如何，財務實力仍是摩根士丹利的關鍵支柱。我們在保持充足資本的同時，持續積極支持客戶。我們擁有非常健康的超額資本水準，普通股權一級資本（CET1）超額 300 個基點，強化了我們的財務實力，並為未來提供相當大的彈性。我們期待持續對話，並在監管機關完成銀行資本監管框架定案之際，提供更多透明資訊。

As we enter the final quarter of the year, Morgan Stanley remains aligned and cohesive focused on delivering higher highs and higher lows through the cycle, particularly when the environment is as complex as it is today, it is essential that we continue to execute on our clear and consistent strategy to act as trusted adviser to our clients, raising, managing and allocating capital across the integrated firm.

進入年度最後一季，摩根士丹利仍保持一致與凝聚，專注於在景氣循環中實現「更高的高點與更高的低點」。尤其在當前如此複雜的環境下，我們必須持續執行清晰且一致的策略：作為客戶可信賴的顧問，在整合型公司內進行資本募集、管理與配置。

With that, I'll turn it over to Sharon to take you through the quarter in greater detail.

接下來我把時間交給 Sharon，請她更詳細地帶各位回顧本季表現。

Thank you, and good morning. In the third-quarter the firm delivered strong results. Revenues of $20.3 billion, EPS of $3.03, and an ROTCE of 22.6%. Growth momentum from the second-quarter carried into the early part of the third-quarter with markets focused on AI investment and continued economic expansion. However, rising energy prices and interest rates weighed on market activity following a shortened post Labor Day September. Despite market uncertainty, corporate activity remains strong. reflecting continued strategic dialogue. Ongoing client engagement reinforces the opportunity for our integrated firm to deepen relationships and support future activity.

謝謝，各位早安。第三季公司交出強勁成果。營收 203 億美元、每股盈餘 3.03 美元，ROTCE 為 22.6%。第二季的成長動能延續到第三季前段，市場聚焦於 AI 投資與經濟持續擴張。然而，在勞動節後縮短的 9 月期間，能源價格與利率上升抑制了市場活動。儘管市場不確定性升高，企業活動仍維持強勁。反映策略性對話持續進行。客戶持續互動進一步強化了我們整合型公司深化關係並支持未來活動的機會。

Year-to-date, the firm's efficiency ratio was 66%. Strong revenues drove operating leverage, more than offsetting elevated execution-related costs compared to the prior year. We continue to invest across our technology stack, embracing AI tools to support our infrastructure, business growth, and people. Together, these investments position us to strengthen our competitive moats across the integrated firm.

年初至今，公司效率比率為 66%。強勁營收帶動營運槓桿，足以抵銷相較去年偏高的執行相關成本。我們持續投資於整體技術堆疊，採用 AI 工具以支援基礎設施、業務成長與人才。這些投資共同使我們得以在整合型公司各領域強化競爭護城河。

Now to the businesses. Institutional Securities revenues were $10 billion, up 18% versus the prior year. The year-over-year increase was driven by our leading Equities franchise and a pickup in advisory. Exit momentum from the second-quarter carried into July before client activity in markets moderated through September. But boardroom dialogue remains strong through the quarter, supporting the build of strategic pipelines and future capital market financing.

接著談各項業務。機構證券業務營收為 100 億美元，較去年同期成長 18%。年增主要由我們領先的股票業務特許經營，以及顧問業務回升所帶動。第二季的收官動能延續至 7 月，之後市場客戶活動在 9 月前逐步降溫。但董事會層級的對話在整季仍維持強勁，支持策略性管線的建立以及未來資本市場融資。

Investment Banking revenues were $2.2 billion, up 2% from the prior year, reflecting strength in the Americas as well as in Asia, consistent with our expectations of a sequential broadening out of global activity.

投資銀行業務營收為 22 億美元，較去年同期成長 2%，反映美洲以及亞洲的強勁表現，符合我們對全球活動將按季逐步擴散的預期。

Advisory revenues of $887 million drove results. The increase relative to the prior year period reflect higher completed activity across most sectors. Equity underwriting revenues were $525 million, down compared to broad-based strength in the prior year with a few large deals driving the market. Fixed income underwriting revenues continued to be strong at $747 million, supported by a new issue market that remained active. Pipelines remain robust and diversified across products, sectors, and regions. Strategic activity remains healthy, supported by ongoing corporate investment, portfolio repositioning, and capital allocation priorities. AI continues to contribute to the advisory and capital markets momentum, but activity is broad-based across sectors and products.

8.87億美元的顧問業務收入帶動了業績表現。相較於去年同期的增長，反映出多數產業完成交易活動增加。股票承銷收入為5.25億美元，較去年同期下滑；去年市場呈現廣泛走強，且由少數大型交易帶動。固定收益承銷收入維持強勁，達7.47億美元，受惠於新發行市場持續活躍。在產品、產業與地區方面，我們的在手案源（pipeline）仍然強勁且多元化。在持續的企業投資、投資組合再配置與資本配置優先事項支撐下，策略性活動維持健康。AI持續為顧問與資本市場動能做出貢獻，但整體活動在各產業與產品間呈現廣泛分布。

Turning to equity. Revenues were $5.8 billion, increasing 41% versus the prior year, reflecting growth across products and across Asia. As client needs become more complex and global, our integrated franchise is well positioned. Our investments in technology and talent have strengthened our capabilities, allowing us to serve at greater scale and manage risk more effectively in fast-moving markets. Prime brokerage drove results led by growth in financing revenues on higher average client balances.

接著談股票業務。收入為58億美元，較去年成長41%，反映產品面與亞洲地區的成長。隨著客戶需求愈加複雜且全球化，我們的一體化平台具備良好優勢。我們在科技與人才上的投資強化了能力，使我們能以更大規模服務客戶，並在快速變動的市場中更有效地管理風險。主經紀業務（Prime Brokerage）帶動了整體表現，主要受惠於客戶平均餘額提高所帶來的融資收入成長。

Derivative results increased versus the prior year, driven by higher client activity early in the quarter and strong risk management. Cash results were higher year-over-year, driven by increased client volumes across regions. Fixed income revenues were $2 billion, reflecting lower structured activity and credit and commodities. Macro results modest increased modestly compared to the prior year, aided by foreign exchange. Micro results declined year-over-year, driven by lower performance in securitized products. Commodity results were solid, though declined against a strong comparative period that benefited from structured transactions.

衍生性商品表現較去年提升，主要由本季初客戶活動增加以及強勁的風險管理所帶動。現金業務（Cash）結果年增，主要因各地區客戶交易量增加。固定收益收入為20億美元，反映結構性活動以及信用與大宗商品業務走弱。宏觀（Macro）業務結果較去年小幅增加，受外匯帶動。微觀（Micro）業務結果年減，主要因證券化產品表現較弱。大宗商品業務表現穩健，但相較於受結構性交易帶動、基期較強的比較期間仍有所下滑。

Turning to ISG lending and provisions. In the quarter, ISG provisions were $141 million, driven primarily by portfolio growth. Net charge-offs were $105 million, primarily related to certain corporate and commercial real estate loans, which were largely provisioned for in prior periods.

接著談ISG放款與提存。本季ISG提存為1.41億美元，主要由投資組合成長所驅動。淨沖銷為1.05億美元，主要與部分企業與商用不動產貸款相關，而這些貸款在先前期間大多已提列準備。

Turning to Wealth Management. The business delivered records across key growth indicators, including net new assets of $232 billion and fee-based flows of $80 billion. In the first nine months of the year, we have delivered roughly $0.5 trillion of net new assets and about $175 billion in fee-based flows. These results demonstrate the reach of our multichannel model and our ability to connect clients with trusted advice.

接著談財富管理。該業務在多項關鍵成長指標上創下紀錄，包括淨新增資產2,320億美元以及以費用為基礎的資金流入800億美元。今年前九個月，我們累計實現約0.5兆美元的淨新增資產，以及約1,750億美元的以費用為基礎資金流入。這些成果展現了我們多通路模式的觸及力，以及將客戶與值得信賴的建議連結起來的能力。

Revenues of $9.1 billion and pretax profit of $2.8 billion were also records. The pretax margin of 30.4% shows consistent strength as we invest in technology, marketing, and our banking capabilities to support future growth.

收入91億美元與稅前利潤28億美元同樣創下紀錄。30.4%的稅前利潤率顯示我們在持續投資科技、行銷與銀行業務能力以支持未來成長的同時，仍維持一致的強勁表現。

Asset management revenues grew 16% year-over-year to $5.5 billion, benefiting from higher markets and the cumulative impact of robust fee-based flows. Fee-based flows of $80 billion set a new organic record with nearly half coming from a corporate retirement mandate. We continue to expand our retirement capabilities and deepen engagement with plan participants, creating more opportunities to build advice-based relationships over time. Transactional revenues were $1.2 billion, up 6% year-over-year, excluding the prior year's DCP benefit. While trading activity moderated from the second-quarter, retail engagement across our differentiated product offering remains healthy, with alternatives delivering another quarter of record sales.

資產管理收入年增16%至55億美元，受惠於市場走高以及強勁的以費用為基礎資金流入所帶來的累積效應。以費用為基礎的資金流入800億美元創下新的自然成長紀錄，其中近一半來自一項企業退休金委託案。我們持續擴展退休金相關能力，並加深與計畫參與者的互動，隨時間推進創造更多建立以建議為核心關係的機會。交易型收入為12億美元，若排除去年DCP帶來的利益，年增6%。儘管交易活動較第二季降溫，我們差異化產品組合下的零售客戶參與度仍維持健康，其中另類投資再度創下單季銷售紀錄。

Bank lending balances grew $5 billion sequentially, driven by securities-based lending and mortgages. Total deposits grew by nearly $30 billion sequentially to $465 billion, reflected investments to strengthen our bank offering. Net interest income was $2.2 billion, down modestly as deposits grew and the mix shifted. Looking ahead, we expect a modest increase in the fourth-quarter, subject to rates and client behaviour.

銀行放款餘額較前一季增加50億美元，主要由以證券為擔保的放款與房貸所帶動。總存款較前一季增加近300億美元至4,650億美元，反映我們為強化銀行產品所進行的投入。淨利息收入為22億美元，因存款成長及結構組合變化而小幅下降。展望未來，我們預期第四季將小幅回升，但仍取決於利率與客戶行為。

Lastly, net new assets of $232 billion reflect the strength of our core business and the differentiated growth opportunities created by Workplace and the integrated firm. IPO-related flows once again contributed to just over half of the overall M&A. With an active IPO calendar, the pace of our funnel accelerates and client interest in advice increases. While flows will fluctuate as lockups expires, funds make distributions and individuals use assets for consumption our pipeline and our connectivity across channels allows us to build relationships early and deepen them over time.

最後，淨新增資產2,320億美元反映我們核心業務的實力，以及由職場（Workplace）與一體化公司所創造的差異化成長機會。與IPO相關的資金流再次貢獻了整體併購（M&A）的一半以上。隨著IPO行事曆活躍，我們的案源漏斗（funnel）節奏加快，客戶對顧問服務的興趣也提升。雖然隨著禁售期（lockup）到期、基金進行分配以及個人為消費動用資產，資金流會有所波動，但我們的案源與跨通路連結能力使我們能及早建立關係並隨時間深化。

Since acquiring ETRADE and expanding our workplace offering six years ago, we have added over $2 trillion of net new assets. Our multiyear track record demonstrates our differentiated client acquisition funnel and its durability.

自收購E*TRADE並在六年前擴展職場業務以來，我們已新增超過2兆美元的淨新增資產。我們多年來的實績展現了差異化的客戶獲取漏斗及其持久性。

Today, we have $8.4 trillion in client assets and serve nearly 21 million relationships. Our platform and broad product offering enables us to serve our clients across a wide range of needs, while our scale supports continued investment in future technology, including AI and digital tools. Together, these strengths provide us with a powerful competitive advantage that positions us to lead as the future of wealth management take shape.

目前，我們擁有8.4兆美元的客戶資產，並服務近2,100萬個客戶關係。我們的平台與廣泛的產品供給使我們能滿足客戶多元需求，而我們的規模也支持持續投資未來科技，包括AI與數位工具。綜合而言，這些優勢為我們帶來強大的競爭優勢，使我們在財富管理未來樣貌逐步成形之際具備領先地位。

Turning to Investment Management. Consistent strength from parametric and fixed income contributed to long-term inflows of $15.8 billion. Parametric continues to benefit from distribution through our scaled wealth management platform, while fixed income was supported by strong performance. Revenues of $1.5 billion reflects steady growth in asset management and related fees. Carry reversal primarily related to two investments in a private fund muted overall results.

接著談投資管理。參數化（Parametric）與固定收益的持續強勁表現，帶動長期資金淨流入158億美元。參數化業務持續受惠於透過我們具規模的財富管理平台進行的通路分銷，而固定收益則由強勁績效所支撐。收入15億美元反映資產管理及相關費用的穩健成長。Carry回轉主要與私募基金中的兩項投資相關，抑制了整體表現。

Looking ahead, we continue to invest in opportunities related to global distribution and connectivity with our financial advisers.

展望未來，我們將持續投資於全球分銷機會，以及與我們財務顧問之間的連結與協同。

Turning to the balance sheet. Total spot assets ended the quarter at $1.7 trillion. Standardized RWAs increased sequentially to $596 billion as we actively supported clients in our markets business and continue to grow corporate lending. We repurchased $1.5 billion of common stock in the quarter and our standardized CET1 ratio ended at 14.9%. Our quarterly tax rate was 23.3%.

接著談資產負債表。本季末即期資產總額為1.7兆美元。標準化風險加權資產（RWA）較前一季增加至5,960億美元，因我們在市場業務中積極支持客戶，並持續擴大企業放款。本季我們回購普通股15億美元，標準化普通股權益第一類資本（CET1）比率季末為14.9%。本季有效稅率為23.3%。

For the fourth-quarter, we expect our tax rate to be slightly above the third-quarter's tax rate, and our full year guidance remains unchanged. Amid a changing rate environment and geopolitical uncertainty, we remain a trusted adviser to clients. This environment underscores the value of the integrated firm as we leverage capabilities across businesses to address evolving client needs. With $10.5 trillion in total client assets across Wealth and Investment Management, we have the foundation to build on as we close out the year.

對於第四季，我們預期稅率將略高於第三季，而全年指引維持不變。在利率環境變化與地緣政治不確定性之下，我們仍是客戶信賴的顧問。此環境凸顯一體化公司的價值，因我們能整合跨業務能力以因應客戶需求的演變。財富管理與投資管理合計客戶資產達10.5兆美元，為我們在年末收官奠定可持續發展的基礎。

With that, we will now open the line up to questions.

接下來，我們將開放提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

Wolfe Research的Steven Chubak。

So this is a meaty one. So I'm just going to limit it to one question, but a two-parter. Just on the topic of digital infra CapEx spending and the implications for future revenue growth. So you guys have been the leader just in digital infra-related financing activity. We see then the league table numbers for both ECM and DCM.

這題內容很扎實。我會把它限制在一個問題，但分成兩個部分。主要想談數位基礎設施（digital infra）的資本支出（CapEx）投入，以及其對未來營收成長的意涵。你們一直是數位基礎設施相關融資活動的領導者。我們也看到股權資本市場（ECM）與債權資本市場（DCM）的排行榜數據。

As we look ahead, do you think there's room for digital infra-related IB fees to continue to grow off the current base, even as a larger portion of equity in debt financing is expected to migrate from the public to the private markets?

展望未來，即使預期債務融資中的較大一部分股權將從公開市場轉向私募市場，您認為與數位基礎設施相關的投資銀行（IB）費用，是否仍有空間在目前基礎上持續成長？

And then for the second part, I was hoping you could just speak to some of the ancillary revenue streams tied to a lot of this digital infra build-out that exists outside of the core IB franchise. So certainly, SpaceX and the NAA tailwind it should be a durable source of strength in wealth, but whether there's other sources of revenue related to this opportunity that might be overlooked by the investor community.

另外第二部分，我希望您能談談，這波數位基礎設施建置所帶動、但存在於核心投資銀行業務版圖之外的一些附帶收入來源。當然，SpaceX 以及 NAA 的順風應該會成為財富管理業務中持久的強項來源，但是否還有其他與此機會相關、可能被投資人社群忽略的收入來源？

Yes, media questions. On AI, of course, we're still relatively early in the CapEx cycle, whether it ends up being $10 trillion or more or less we will see as it plays out. But the hyperscaler CapEx is running as we speak at around $1 trillion a year. And our role as an adviser in all pieces of this will remain to be a critical differentiator. We're advising clients on the full ecosystem of their strategic and capital markets alternatives.

是的，媒體提問。關於 AI，當然我們仍處於資本支出（CapEx）週期的相對早期階段，最終會是 10 兆美元或更多或更少，將隨著發展而見分曉。但超大規模雲端業者（hyperscaler）的資本支出目前正以每年約 1 兆美元的速度進行。而我們作為顧問在這一切各個環節中的角色，仍將是關鍵的差異化因素。我們正就其策略與資本市場替代方案的完整生態系，為客戶提供建議。

We're helping them innovate. We're helping them finance through the life cycle, and we're working really across the full ecosystem, whether it's our teams working to help build public solutions or private solutions to act as an innovator across the world and whether we're working with the chips folks, the data centers or the power providers, the activity from here may not accelerate, but I think we all see that the power of AI as an efficiency and productivity and resiliency tools incontrovertible, generational jump in technology, the relationships and innovation that Morgan Stanley brings to our clients will absolutely be critical as friends become friends in certain context maybe not permanent friends, but permanent interest in the context of who does deals with whom and how they are structured in what market, where on the capital structure.

我們協助他們創新。我們協助他們在整個生命週期中進行融資，並且我們確實橫跨整個生態系運作——無論是我們的團隊協助打造公開市場解決方案或私募市場解決方案，以在全球扮演創新者；也無論我們是在與晶片業者、資料中心或電力供應商合作。從現在起相關活動未必會加速，但我想大家都看得到，AI 作為效率、生產力與韌性工具的力量是無可爭辯的，這是世代性的技術躍升。Morgan Stanley 帶給客戶的關係與創新，絕對會至關重要；因為在某些情境下朋友會成為朋友，未必是永久的朋友，但在「誰與誰做交易、交易如何設計、在哪個市場、在資本結構的哪一層」這些面向上，會形成長期且持續的利益連結。

That requires real structuring knowledge, real expertise and real trust. And the Morgan Stanley team has shown itself to be quite excellent here as a differentiator. And importantly, what clears the market sometimes the technology will be ahead of what the market will accept and sometimes vice versa. And we have to be cognizant of what the market will accept at a given time. So some judgment there is, of course, experiential judgment is critical.

這需要真正的結構設計知識、真正的專業能力與真正的信任。而 Morgan Stanley 團隊已證明自己在這方面相當出色，形成差異化優勢。而且重要的是，有時候能清算市場（clears the market）的條件是：技術會走在市場可接受程度之前；有時則相反。我們必須意識到在特定時間點市場能接受什麼。因此其中需要一些判斷，而這種判斷當然是經驗性的判斷，至關重要。

Steve, on your net new asset question, we see a lot of growth associated with IPO events, but beyond the IPO channel, when we look at workplace and our presence with so many private companies, we believe that this cycle has many years to come. Net new assets will ebb and flow in a given quarter, but as Sharon said, but let's take a step back and remember that we bought ETRADE six years ago, this completed the funnel.

Steve，關於你提到的淨新增資產（net new assets）問題，我們看到與 IPO 事件相關的成長很多；但除了 IPO 這個管道之外，當我們看工作場所（workplace）以及我們在眾多私營公司的布局時，我們相信這個週期還有很多年可走。單一季度的淨新增資產會有起伏，如 Sharon 所說；但讓我們退一步回顧：我們在六年前收購了 ETRADE，這完成了漏斗（funnel）。

The funnel is this extraordinary self-directed piece, workplace and then, of course, the financial adviser and we generated $1 trillion of net new assets in the three years subsequent to the acquisition of trade. And then the last three years, we drew in another $1 trillion. So $1 trillion over three years, two, three year sets running shows not only our ability to make the proposition the case that scale begets scale, but the reinvestment from within the funnel is clearly here.

這個漏斗包含了非常卓越的自助式（self-directed）板塊、workplace，然後當然還有財務顧問；而在收購 ETRADE 後的三年裡，我們創造了 1 兆美元的淨新增資產。接著在過去三年，我們又吸引了另外 1 兆美元。也就是說，三年 1 兆美元、再三年 1 兆美元的表現，不僅顯示我們有能力把命題講清楚——規模帶來規模（scale begets scale）——也清楚顯示漏斗內部的再投資正在發生。

And of course, as lockups and funds make distributions, there are further opportunities to retain assets. So we are very excited about the attachment points ultimately that bring clients to ETRADE that we are close with them in the corporate stock plan context, i.e., workplace, but then ultimately, where it's appropriate fee-based flows that make their way to the advisers, which is that why that $80 billion number that Sharon speaks to the fee-based flows is such an important statistic.

當然，隨著禁售期（lockups）到期以及基金進行分配（distributions），也會有更多保留資產的機會。因此，我們對最終把客戶帶到 ETRADE 的各個連結點（attachment points）感到非常振奮：我們在企業股票計畫（corporate stock plan）的情境下與他們保持緊密關係，也就是 workplace；但最終在適當情況下，按費用計價（fee-based）的資金流會流向顧問端。這也是為什麼 Sharon 提到的、按費用計價資金流的 800 億美元數字，是如此重要的統計指標。

Brennan Hawken, BMO Capital Markets.

BMO Capital Markets 的 Brennan Hawken。

Was going to follow up on that last point. The net new at $232 billion, really quite impressive. You flagged the benefits from the IPOs despite a slower quarter for issuance. So could you speak to how much of that was the tail from prior deals versus the current quarter? And what's the best way that we should be thinking about that tail as we think about quarters still to come?

我想就剛才那點追問一下。淨新增資產達到 2,320 億美元，確實非常亮眼。你提到即使本季發行較慢，IPO 仍帶來助益。所以你能否談談，其中有多少是先前交易帶來的尾端效應（tail），相對於本季的貢獻？以及在展望未來幾季時，我們應該如何看待這個尾端效應？

Sure. Thanks, Brennan. I'll take it. In terms of -- you highlighted a really good point. that we talk about IPOs, and we talk about them as not just one quarter, but you use a word that I use as well, which is there's a tail to this process.

當然。謝謝你，Brennan。我來回答。就——你點出了一個非常好的重點。我們談 IPO 時，談的不是只有單一季度；你用了我也常用的一個詞，也就是這個流程有「尾端效應」（tail）。

So in the second-quarter, you'll note specifically even in the press release, I think I spoke about it in my prepared remarks, we talked about the flows that came from the IPOs being largely employee-related. This quarter, what you saw is a continuation of these flows that come from IPOs is not necessarily just a one quarter event. So as you know, we have a full cap table. We understand early investors you can think, for example, of an endowment that might receive a stock associated with an IPO. He or she might take that and it through from a transfer agent into a Morgan Stanley advice-based relationship.

所以在第二季，你會注意到，甚至在新聞稿裡——我想我在事先準備的發言中也提到——我們談到來自 IPO 的資金流主要與員工相關。而本季你看到的是，來自 IPO 的這些資金流的延續；它不一定只是單一季度的事件。因此如你所知，我們掌握完整的資本結構表（cap table）。我們了解早期投資人——例如你可以想像某個捐贈基金（endowment）可能因 IPO 而收到股票；他或她可能把這些股票透過過戶代理（transfer agent）轉入 Morgan Stanley 的顧問式（advice-based）關係中。

So now you have flows that are under the advice-based channel and our say, a different portion of the cap table. You might, as Ted said, also have flows that are now distributed from funds go into individual-based accounts, right? So the fund takes it and the lockup buyers and they're distributed to the underlying investor or on an individual level. So there's a lot of places where that funnel begins to move into an advice-based relationship.

因此現在你就有資金流進入顧問式通路，而且是資本結構表中不同的一部分。你也可能如 Ted 所說，看到基金分配出來的資金流，進入以個人為基礎的帳戶，對吧？也就是基金拿到之後，禁售期買方（lockup buyers）所持有的部位被分配給底層投資人，或在個人層級進行分配。因此有很多地方會讓這個漏斗開始往顧問式關係移動。

Of course, as we move forward, I said it, you can ebb and flow and you can see people actually as lockup expires, selling stock and using it for different acquisitions of different real assets, but the point is that this is the top part of the funnel. It's really a way to continue to aggregate new assets, new employee relationships, and we're seeing that. We're seeing with some of these IPOs the first or the third-quarter. So now that some of these IPOs have come to market, real relationships, adviser-led relationships being built. And that's just one piece, right? That's one piece of the top of the funnel.

當然，隨著我們往前走，我也說過，資金流會有起伏；你也會看到人們在禁售期到期後賣出股票，並將資金用於不同的收購、不同的實體資產。但重點是，這是漏斗的最上層。這確實是一種持續匯聚新資產、新員工關係的方法，而我們正在看到這點。我們看到在某些 IPO 中，第一季或第三季也有這樣的情況。所以現在，隨著部分 IPO 已進入市場，真正的關係、由顧問主導的關係正在建立。而那只是其中一塊，對吧？那只是漏斗頂端的一塊。

You also have, as you probably saw these corporate retirement flows that are coming through as fee-based assets where we're also talking to the individuals. So all a very big picture that we've been investing in for many, many years. It has to do with both the workplace and the individual and the corporate life cycle of wealth.

此外，如你可能也看到的，還有這些企業退休金（corporate retirement）資金流，會以按費用計價資產（fee-based assets）的形式流入，而我們也在與個人進行溝通。因此，整體而言，這是一個我們多年來持續投入的大藍圖。它同時關乎 workplace、個人，以及企業在財富生命週期中的各個階段。

Thanks for that color, Sharon, and good to see the funnel operating so well. I'd love to also ask another question on wealth. The deposit growth was really robust here. And although it was driven realistically by the sort of higher cost variety, could you speak to maybe how this growth is related to the bank and what you're doing there with funding of ISG operations? And how we should think about those benefits pulling through whether there's a lag and how long that might take?

謝謝你提供這些補充說明，Sharon，也很高興看到這個漏斗運作得如此順暢。我也想再問一個關於財富管理的問題。這裡的存款成長非常強勁。雖然實際上是由較高成本的類別所驅動，你能否談談這樣的成長與銀行端的關聯，以及你們在那裡如何為 ISG 營運提供資金（funding）？以及我們應該如何看待這些效益的傳導——是否存在滯後，以及可能需要多久？

Yes, absolutely. So thank you for -- you hit the nail on the head in terms of what you see from NII, which is a very modest decline in the NII from a quarter-over-quarter basis. But a very large increase in the deposits of nearly $30 billion on a sequential basis. It is a very intentional decision, a strategic choice that we've made to grow the bank. We saw an opportunity to do so.

是的，絕對是。所以謝謝你——你一語中的，點出了你從淨利息收入（NII）所看到的情況，也就是按季來看 NII 只是非常溫和地下滑。但存款在連續基礎上卻大幅增加了將近 300 億美元。這是一個非常刻意的決定，是我們為了擴大銀行規模所做出的策略性選擇。我們看到了這樣做的機會。

I'd say that it's twofold, both from an integrated firm perspective. But also from a wealth management perspective. So from the integrated firm, we've talked a lot about the bank and using the bank strategically as a source of funding. And we saw that as we've begun to move assets into the bank eligible assets moving to the bank over the course of the year. And yes, I think I spoke about it in the first-quarter call that, that will be something that we'll see from a funding benefit as we enter into next year.

我會說這有兩個層面，從整合型公司的角度來看是如此。從財富管理的角度來看也是如此。就整合型公司而言，我們談了很多關於銀行，以及策略性地把銀行作為資金來源。而我們也看到，隨著我們開始在一年當中把資產移入銀行——符合資格的資產逐步轉入銀行。是的，我想我在第一季電話會議上提過，當我們進入明年時，這將會在資金面的效益上有所體現。

So it's not immediate. It will come over time, and you'll see that playing through our numbers over the course of next year. But in addition to the funding benefit, I'd also should mention that we do see really strong attachment points that are coming from the bank. So those clients that are bank of first clients.

所以這不是立刻就會發生的。它會隨著時間推進，你會在明年一整年中看到它逐步反映在我們的數字上。但除了資金面的效益之外，我也應該提到，我們確實看到來自銀行端非常強的「黏著點」（attachment points）。也就是那些把我們銀行作為主要往來銀行的客戶。

Over time, we've seen that 1/3 of them end up being a digital client or in a relationship and adviser-based client as well. So that also helps. In addition, they end up also having more multiples more of NNA that comes to the institution. So we see a real opportunity to grow the bank both from the wealth management perspective and the top of the funnel, but also from the funding side that will play out over time.

隨著時間推進，我們看到其中有三分之一最後會成為數位客戶，或同時也成為關係型、顧問導向的客戶。所以這也有幫助。此外，他們帶進機構的淨新增資產（NNA）也會是倍數成長。因此我們看到一個真正的機會：一方面從財富管理與漏斗上游（top of the funnel）的角度來擴大銀行規模，另一方面也從資金端來看，這些效益會隨時間逐步展現。

Glenn Schorr, Evercore ISI.

Glenn Schorr，Evercore ISI。

So we've all asked the banks on Agentic cash and all that movement. But from time to time, people have the same questions on how changes in technology are going to impact the wealth business going forward. So I know you guys invested in open AI before I knew that was a company. But outside of just the normal efficiency and advisory productivity that you're getting I'm curious as the leaders in wealth, how you see what investments you're making, how you see the wealth advice as a service evolving in this technological backdrop?

所以我們都問過各家銀行關於 Agentic 現金以及所有那些資金移動。但不時地，人們也會問同樣的問題：科技變化未來將如何影響財富管理業務。所以我知道你們在我還不知道那是一家公司之前就投資了 OpenAI。但除了你們正在取得的一般效率提升與顧問生產力之外，我很好奇：作為財富管理領域的領導者，你們如何看待你們正在做的投資？在這樣的科技背景下，你們如何看待「財富建議作為一種服務」的演進？

Glenn, it's a critical question for Morgan Stanley as a strategic matter. We are now in a singular position in the industry where the -- where we see the integrated scaling of the funnel that you described, we have the self-directed channel that continues to innovate for clients. We have, as Sharon was describing, a differentiated workplace offering that continues to expand and source new relationships. And we have ultimately the deep trust-based relationships between the financial advisers and their clients. And against that platform, we have built a number of advantages that not only allow us to preserve our moat but actually make technology a differentiator in our favour.

Glenn，這對摩根士丹利而言在策略層面是一個關鍵問題。我們現在在產業中處於一個獨特的位置：就你所描述的那個漏斗而言，我們看到其整合式、可規模化的擴張；我們有持續為客戶創新、自主導向（self-directed）的通路。我們也有如 Sharon 所描述的、具差異化的職場（workplace）方案，持續擴張並帶來新的關係。而最終，我們擁有財務顧問與其客戶之間深厚、以信任為基礎的關係。在這個平台之上，我們建立了多項優勢，不僅能讓我們守住護城河，甚至能讓科技成為對我們有利的差異化因素。

I'd highlight four. The first is we all bear in mind that we've got a unique set of products and capabilities as the largest distributor in the world. We're the most important wealth partner to the entire asset management industry. There are significant parts of our old platform, both product and pricing that are not available to clients anywhere else.

我想強調四點。第一，我們都要記得，作為全球最大的分銷商，我們擁有一套獨特的產品與能力。我們是整個資產管理產業最重要的財富合作夥伴。我們舊有平台中有相當重要的部分——無論是產品或定價——在其他任何地方客戶都無法取得。

You are a Morgan Stanley client. You have access to our research. You have access to the calendar. You have access to private markets via equities in, you have co-investment opportunities. And then importantly, for ultra-high net worth family office infrastructure solutions. So the scale that we have offers differentiation that will remain and even be aided by agents.

你是摩根士丹利的客戶。你可以使用我們的研究。你可以使用我們的行事曆（calendar）。你可以透過我們進入私募市場、參與股權相關機會，也有共同投資（co-investment）的機會。而且很重要的是，對於超高淨值客戶，我們提供家族辦公室基礎設施解決方案。因此，我們的規模帶來的差異化將會持續存在，甚至會在代理（agents）的助力下更為強化。

Second, unique data. With $8.4 trillion of assets in wealth management and now getting to 21 million households, we have tremendous insights into what works and what doesn't when you talk to your financial adviser. You want to gauge on a particular day or a particular month or a particular year, which are risk reward sentiment ought to be, how you should be thinking about life and some of that can be governed by what others are doing through the use of data. It gives us insights given our size and scale that allow our FAs I tailor advice and equip our own tools to deliver that advice to help clients achieve their goals.

第二，獨特的數據。財富管理資產達 8.4 兆美元，且目前接近 2,100 萬戶家庭，我們對於當你與財務顧問溝通時，什麼有效、什麼無效，有非常深的洞察。你想在某一天、某一個月或某一年判斷你的風險報酬偏好應該是什麼、你應該如何思考人生，而其中一部分可以透過數據、參考其他人的行為來加以引導。憑藉我們的規模與體量，這些洞察讓我們的財務顧問（FAs）能夠量身打造建議，並讓我們的工具具備交付這些建議的能力，協助客戶達成目標。

Third, and this is critical, is the ability to protect client assets. We're one of a very few number of firms that could continue to invest whatever it takes to protect our clients. Others, you can't engage head-to-head with AI out of your garage. So there will be a resiliency theme that will be super important to clients with real net worth as we go forward.

第三，而且這點很關鍵，是保護客戶資產的能力。我們是少數能夠持續投入、不惜代價保護客戶的公司之一。其他人不可能在自家車庫裡就跟 AI 正面對決。因此，隨著我們往前走，「韌性」將會是一個對真正有淨值的客戶而言極其重要的主題。

And then fourth point, and this is really where it begins where it ends is it's a people business. At some level, if the technology is world-class. Folks want to make decisions with their financial advisers based on the complexity and singularity of their own financial needs at a particular point in life with respect to their parents, their kids, how they want to go about philanthropy, how they want to go about taxes, the whole thing. That is something that technology can help do a lot of the early work, but ultimately, once you know that you have the ability to allocate across the entire asset spectrum, given that we are the largest distributor in the world of any kind of asset management product, given we have insights from the unique data. And given that we are a protective shield for those assets, ultimately comes down to, do I trust my financial adviser.

第四點，而這也真的是起點也是終點：這是一門以人為本的生意。在某個層面上，即便科技是世界級的。人們仍然希望基於自身財務需求在特定人生階段的複雜性與獨特性，與他們的財務顧問一起做決策——涉及父母、孩子、如何做慈善、如何處理稅務，所有這些。科技可以協助完成許多前期工作，但最終，一旦你知道自己具備跨整個資產光譜進行配置的能力——考量到我們是全球最大的各類資產管理產品分銷商，考量到我們從獨特數據中獲得的洞察，並且考量到我們是這些資產的保護盾——最後歸結為：我是否信任我的財務顧問。

And if I do, I'm at a place where the adviser retention rate is above 99%. And the clients obviously are quite happy, which is why over time, it's so important that we continue to scale not quarter-to-quarter, but over multiple years and that we see the reinvestment in the funnel that the funnel becomes not only a way to preserve our moat, but actually to be a technology winner, which is dating back to some of what you talked about, but continues today.

如果我信任，那麼我們所在的位置是顧問留任率超過 99%。而客戶顯然也相當滿意，這也是為什麼隨著時間推進，我們持續擴大規模不是按季，而是跨多年如此重要；而且我們看到對漏斗的再投資，使漏斗不僅是守住護城河的方法，甚至能讓我們成為科技上的贏家——這呼應了你提到的一些內容，而且至今仍在延續。

So I'd say of all the many things to be excited about, I'd say now what the management team is most excited about is our ability now to further our scaling and over time, our operating leverage in the wealth management business.

所以我會說，在眾多令人振奮的事情之中，管理團隊目前最感到振奮的是：我們現在有能力進一步擴大規模，並隨著時間推進提升財富管理業務的營運槓桿。

Christian Bolu, Autonomous.

Christian Bolu，Autonomous。

Maybe first I have a question on the impressive IPO flows into wealth management. Sorry if I missed Sharon, your earlier answer, but are you still expecting incremental flows in 4Q and '27 of what you've had so far? And then more broadly, how should we think about the economics of these flows? Are you seeing any signs that you can ultimately retain and turn them into annuitized fee-based assets?

也許先問一個關於令人印象深刻的 IPO 資金流入財富管理的問題。如果我漏聽了 Sharon 你先前的回答先說聲抱歉，但你們是否仍預期在第四季以及 2027 年會有相較於目前為止的增量流入？然後更廣泛地說，我們應該如何看待這些資金流的經濟性？你們是否看到任何跡象顯示，最終可以留住這些資產，並把它們轉化為可年金化（annuitized）的以費用為基礎資產？

Absolutely. Why don't I take it and I'll take the last one first, which is that we are absolutely seeing that we can retain the assets, and we're seeing a pick up in the ability, and this is a China the last answer is those IPOs that came to fruition in the second-quarter that we are building relationships, adviser-led relationships.

當然可以。不如我先從最後一點回答起，也就是我們確實看到自己能夠留住資產，而且我們也看到這方面能力正在提升；而這在中國的情況下，最後一點答案是，那些在第二季成功落地的 IPO，我們正在建立關係——由顧問主導的關係。

And there's a lot of opportunities to do so, and there's a lot of interest to move forward, and we continue -- we will continue to build on those relationships, not just with where we've started now, but I think there's more opportunities to go with those individuals. As it relates to retention rates, we're seeing steady retention rates. So what does that mean?

而且這方面有很多機會，也有很高的意願推進；我們會持續——我們將持續在這些關係上加碼，不僅是從目前已經開始的地方，我認為與這些個人還有更多可延伸的機會。至於留存率，我們看到留存率保持穩定。那這代表什麼？

It actually means that the dollars of assets is greater. So if you can keep the retention rates where they are, even as you get more flow, more assets at the top of the funnel, that means that eventually, that will help from a fee-based advisory flow as well or an adviser-led product or an adviser-led relationship.

其實這代表資產金額（以美元計）更大了。所以如果你能在獲得更多資金流入、漏斗頂端有更多資產的同時，仍把留存率維持在目前水準，那最終也會對以費用為基礎的顧問業務流量有所助益，或是對顧問主導的產品、顧問主導的關係有所助益。

Now as it relates to the [fourth]-quarter (corrected by company after the call), there's nothing material to call out in terms of expectations for those flows as you move forward. as we said, assets will ebb and flow. You can think of an individual who might sell assets in order to buy something, but you can also think of individuals that have those advice-based relationships and begin to aggregate assets held away.

至於[第四]季（公司在電話會後更正），就你往前看對這些資金流的預期而言，沒有什麼重大事項需要特別指出。如同我們所說，資產會有起伏。你可以想像某個人可能為了購買某樣東西而賣出資產，但你也可以想像有些人建立了以建議為基礎的關係，並開始把原本放在外部持有的資產逐步集中回來。

And that's been a lot of the strategy even over the course -- if you go back 10 years, we just talked about that, Christian, which is we see a great opportunity with assets held away. These individuals have just stepped into wealth. They begin to consolidate assets and understand the value of a fulsome advice-based relationship.

而這一直是我們的策略重點之一——即便回顧過去 10 年，我們剛才也談到這點，Christian，也就是我們在外部持有的資產上看到很大的機會。這些人剛踏入財富階段。他們開始整合資產，並理解一段完整、以建議為核心的關係所帶來的價值。

Great. On expenses, I guess, non-comp expenses were flat QoQ firm-wide despite sort of lower revenues I think you spoke about some AI investments in your prepared remarks. Give me a sense of like more detail here, what are you spending on? Is it sort of tokens? Or are there more structural AI investments and should we think about this as a sort of multiyear investment program?

很好。關於費用，我想問一下，儘管營收較低，你們全公司層面的非薪酬費用（non-comp expenses）季對季持平；我記得你在事先準備的發言中提到一些 AI 投資。能否更具體說明一下，你們主要花在什麼上？是像 token 這類用量成本嗎？還是更偏結構性的 AI 投資？我們是否應把這視為一個為期多年的投資計畫？

Yes. I think that you will see that from any company in America is using their technology dollars to think about how to use AI, how to be more productive and how to support greater growth in revenues with their current expense base, with some of that translating into technology itself. So sort of a redistribution of dollars as you move forward? And how do you actually see that productivity?

是的。我認為你會看到，美國任何一家企業都在用他們的科技預算思考如何運用 AI、如何提升生產力，以及如何在既有費用基礎上支撐更高的營收成長，其中一部分會直接轉化為科技本身的投入。所以，往前看算是一種資金的重新分配？那你們實際上如何看到這種生產力提升？

Again, anybody who works in sort of a senior management role can tell you how much AI is fundamentally changing with our other sleeves do, I can speak as sort of just as Head of Finance. What we're seeing is remarkable. The reconciliation that you can see across different books things that usually take so many manual human hours and can have -- obviously, there are controls in place, but the ability to see it with fewer errors and fewer mistakes and fewer checks is real.

再說一次，任何在高階管理職的人都能告訴你，AI 正在從根本上改變我們其他部門的工作方式；我可以就我作為財務主管的角度來談。我們看到的效果非常驚人。跨不同帳簿的對帳，以往需要大量人工工時；當然有控制措施，但現在能以更少錯誤、更少失誤、更少覆核就看得更清楚，這是確實存在的。

And in addition to that, there are just manual processes and manual, what we call EUs, which are spreadsheets and others. They can automatically be written, understood, coded, and then moved into our real productivity life cycle, so a front to back of products. So it's an incredible tool. We're seeing it in the actual businesses themselves, even within our equities business, where you have different AI tools that salespeople can use, and I think that, that productivity is real, and that's where a lot of the spend is being seen.

此外，還有很多手動流程，以及我們所稱的 EU（終端使用者工具），也就是試算表等。它們可以自動被撰寫、理解、編碼，然後納入我們真正的生產力生命週期，涵蓋產品從前到後的流程。所以這是一個不可思議的工具。我們也在實際業務中看到它的影響，甚至在我們的股票業務裡，業務人員可以使用不同的 AI 工具；我認為那種生產力提升是真實的，而很多支出也正是投入在這裡。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

Mike Mayo，富國銀行。

You talked about half full, half empty. In the half empty column, you've had concerns about the AI CapEx super cycle as it relates to overbuilding, power, financing, politics, and you can probably complete that list a lot more. Where is your conviction on the AI CapEx super cycle in light of all these headlines and you've had some pulled IPOs. And last quarter, you talked about CapEx. I think you had numbers like $800 billion to $1.3 trillion to $1.5 trillion. I'm just kind of marking to market the way you're thinking about it.

你提到「半滿、半空」。在「半空」那一欄，你曾對 AI 資本支出（CapEx）超級週期的疑慮提出過一些點，例如過度建置、電力、融資、政治因素，你大概還能把清單列得更長。在這些新聞標題之下，你對 AI CapEx 超級週期的信心目前在哪裡？而且你們也有一些撤回的 IPO。上季你談到 CapEx，我記得你提過像 8,000 億美元到 1.3 兆到 1.5 兆美元這樣的數字。我只是想更新一下你現在的看法，等於把你的思考「按市價重估」一下。

Yes. And Mike, I actually think this question is just going to have to be asked over and over again because the quantum's are so big and the growth of the US economy is at some level and even the global economy being powered by this AI cap CapEx cycle. I don't know that it necessarily accelerates from the $1 trillion that we're at. It could be $1 trillion, it could be $1.2 trillion, but we are at a level where it is meaningful, 50, 70 basis points of real GDP in the US, that is no small matter.

是的。Mike，我其實覺得這個問題會被一問再問，因為量級實在太大，而美國經濟在某種程度上、甚至全球經濟的成長，都正在由這一波 AI 資本支出週期所驅動。我不確定它是否一定會從我們目前約 1 兆美元的水準再加速。它可能是 1 兆，也可能是 1.2 兆，但我們已經處在一個非常有意義的水準——對美國實質 GDP 來說是 50 到 70 個基點，這絕非小事。

And then how many years it takes? I mean, as we've talked about, sometimes the technology is going to be headed to financing, the financing on the technology. But the efficiency and productivity and then obviously, the need to protect all of these are incontrovertibly important for every large-cap institution over time, every institution, of course, it's not just at the enterprise level at the individual level.

然後需要多少年？我的意思是，如同我們談過的，有時候技術的發展會走向融資——也就是技術的融資。但效率與生產力，以及顯然保護所有這些事物的需求，對每一家大型機構而言在時間推移下都是無可爭辯地重要；當然不只是企業層級，個人層級也是如此。

The key is our ability to continue to act as an adviser. That is what we are most focused on. And we are able to effectively act as the clearing mechanism in this very complicated ecosystem between all of the players, such that we are viewed as a fair hand in acting as the adviser, the structure, the financing partner. If a deal doesn't clear the public markets, what do they do next do they raise private capital? How do they do that?

關鍵在於我們能否持續扮演顧問角色。這是我們最專注的事情。而且我們能夠有效地在這個由所有參與者構成、非常複雜的生態系中，扮演清算與撮合的機制，使得市場把我們視為一個公平的角色，能夠提供顧問服務、架構設計、以及融資夥伴的功能。如果一筆交易無法在公開市場完成，那接下來怎麼辦？他們要去募私募資本嗎？要怎麼做？

How do they satisfy the needs of their LPs and other constituencies. So it will be complicated, i.e., there will be moments of uncertainty. And I have no doubt there will be times when it will feel like it's going too fast, and there is a sense of overbuilding in some respects. And then there are going to be other times when it's not fast enough and that there's a different bottleneck in the ecosystem, perhaps it's power. But the reality is the capital is going to have to be provided for this once in a multi-generation change.

他們要如何滿足其 LP（有限合夥人）以及其他利害關係人的需求。所以這會很複雜，也就是說，會有不確定性的時刻。我毫不懷疑會有一些時候讓人覺得進展太快，某些面向確實有過度建置的感覺。然後也會有另一些時候覺得不夠快，生態系中出現不同的瓶頸，也許是電力。但現實是，為了這場一代人才會遇到一次的變革，資本終究必須到位。

As we talked about S&P 500, value is somewhere between $65 million and $70 trillion. Global GDP is, let's say, $120 trillion. These are sort of the denominators one can talk about. So $1 trillion is a heck of a lot in a given year, but $1 trillion against some of the best performing companies of modern times that are still running cash flow positive to something that becomes -- you got to be in it to win it. That is conceivable, really over the course of 5, 10 years that it could be at a run rate that is plus or minus $1 trillion. And our role is when things feel like they're going too fast. And the market is not ready for the next financing or structure innovation, we have to effectively consider what is appropriate. And then when it's not fast enough because the capital is needed, we throttle accordingly.

如同我們談到的，標普 500 的市值大約在 65 兆到 70 兆美元之間。全球 GDP 我們就算 120 兆美元。這些是我們可以拿來討論的分母。所以 1 兆美元在單一年份確實非常龐大，但把 1 兆美元放在一些現代史上表現最好的公司之中——這些公司仍然是正向現金流——對於一個最終會成形的趨勢而言，你必須參與其中才有機會勝出。在 5 到 10 年的時間尺度上，資本支出以年化速度在正負 1 兆美元附近運行，是可以想像的。而我們的角色是：當事情看起來太快、市場尚未準備好迎接下一輪融資或結構創新時，我們必須有效地評估什麼是合適的。而當進展不夠快、資本確實需要被提供時，我們也會相應地調整節奏。

So I am -- I continue to be humble and as querying as anyone with respect to whether the right number for, let's say, 2028 on hyperscale or CapEx is $1.2 trillion or $1.4 trillion, or $1 trillion, but the number is going to be, we see $1 trillion and at some kind of plateau level continue to be a very important part of what we all do. in the capital markets as originators and delivering content and again, in bringing real sustained not just efficiency but productivity improvement to large-cap companies.

所以我——我仍然保持謙遜，也像任何人一樣持續探問：以 2028 年來說，超大規模（hyperscale）或資本支出（CapEx）的正確數字究竟是 1.2 兆美元、1.4 兆美元，還是 1 兆美元；但這個數字終究會是——我們看到 1 兆美元，並且在某種平台期水準上，將持續成為我們所有人所做事情中非常重要的一部分。在資本市場中，作為承銷／發起方並提供內容；同時，再次強調，為大型企業帶來真正可持續的——不只是效率，而是生產力提升。

So where the rubber meets the road, you have to allocate resources for the AI opportunity. So in light of what you just said, the risks and opportunities, are you allocating more or less to the AI opportunity and how are your backlogs?

所以當真正要落地執行時，你必須為 AI 機會配置資源。那麼基於你剛才談到的風險與機會，你是在 AI 機會上配置更多還是更少？另外你們的在手訂單（backlog）情況如何？

We were, as you know, overweighted to AI from the early days in wealth with some of the work we did with OpenAI. We've been overweighted working with other complexes. You know who they are in terms of banking coverage, in terms of usage in our plan in terms of wealth relationships, in terms of thinking about what it's like to go public I would say that we were overweight and in light of it being something that matters not just to our clients. But to us, I would say we are now double overweight.

如你所知，我們從早期開始就在財富管理領域對 AI 採取超配，部分源於我們與 OpenAI 合作所做的一些工作。我們也在與其他生態系／平台合作上維持超配。就銀行覆蓋而言、就我們計畫中的使用情況而言、就財富端的關係而言、以及就思考「上市會是什麼樣子」而言——我會說我們原本就是超配，而且鑑於這不僅對客戶重要，對我們也同樣重要，我會說我們現在是「加倍超配」。

There is just no question that this is existentially important that we are viewed as a trusted adviser in the middle of the ecosystem given that we have a very clear strategy where we are acting as the wealth manager, the asset allocator, the banker.

毫無疑問，這在生存層面至關重要：在我們擁有非常清晰的策略、同時扮演財富管理人、資產配置者與銀行家的前提下，我們必須被視為生態系中值得信賴的顧問。

And for us to be part of the content and the thinking and the evolution of this is absolutely the top priority for the firm as the adviser and then also that we're eating our cooking and that we are providing resiliency and all that comes with the need to keep up with all of the innovation. And I appreciate the question, Mike.

對我們而言，作為顧問，能夠參與內容、思考與這一切的演進，絕對是公司最優先的事項；同時我們也要「吃自己做的菜」（以自身採用驗證），並提供韌性，以及為了跟上所有創新所需的一切。我也感謝你的提問，Mike。

Dan Fannon, Jefferies.

Dan Fannon，Jefferies。

You guys have talked about fee-based flows being key to the margin expansion within the wealth channel. And as you have more success with migrating workplace clients to advice, should we see this convergence of the total flows and the fee-based flows continue? Or is that something that will always kind of have some spread to it?

你們談到以費用為基礎（fee-based）的資金流入是財富通路利潤率擴張的關鍵。隨著你們在把 Workplace 客戶成功遷移到顧問服務（advice）方面更有進展，我們是否會看到總資金流入與 fee-based 資金流入之間的收斂持續發生？還是說兩者之間永遠都會存在某種差距？

That's a great question, Dan. It's going to depend really on what flows end up seeking what type of advice and those that want to be part of the fee boost ecosystem. What we've seen is, it can -- let's take this quarter as an example, right? So fee-based flows, we talked about a portion of those fee-based flows coming from a corporate retirement mandate. As you bring a full corporate retirement mandate on board, those will also be considered net new assets, right, because it's coming in immediately as a fee-based flow.

這是個很好的問題，Dan。這其實取決於最終資金流入會去尋求哪一種類型的建議，以及哪些客戶希望成為 fee-based 生態系的一部分。我們看到的是——可以用本季作為例子，對吧？fee-based 流入方面，我們談到其中一部分來自企業退休金委任（corporate retirement mandate）。當你把完整的企業退休金委任納入後，這些也會被視為淨新增資產（net new assets），對吧，因為它會立即以 fee-based 流入的形式進來。

But you can have other situations, and we saw big backlogs where we had dollars accumulate just in brokerage, both on the advisory side and on the self-directed side but then move into fee-based flows. And those are just individual accounts. And then you might have also relationships between stock plan where people aggregate assets and move them directly into fee-based. So I think it just will depend on what flows you're discussing.

但你也可能遇到其他情況；我們看到很大的在手量（backlog），資金先在券商帳戶中累積——不論是在顧問端或自助交易端——之後再轉入 fee-based 流入。而那些只是個人帳戶。另外你也可能在股票計畫（stock plan）相關的關係中看到：人們把資產彙總後，直接轉入 fee-based。所以我認為，這取決於你在討論的是哪一類資金流入。

But importantly, we do see that, that value of advice they come in directly as a fee-based account or they come in and migrate over time from self-directed or otherwise is critically important. I think a statistic that I gave you guys earlier in the year was that a little bit over 20% of all of the advisor-led [assets are those that originated from Workplace or E*TRADE] (corrected by company after the call). I mean that still holds, is not growing. And so that just shows you how powerful the fee-based model and the advice led model is.

但重要的是，我們確實看到：建議（advice）的價值——不論是客戶一開始就以 fee-based 帳戶進來，或是從自助交易等模式隨時間遷移過來——都至關重要。我今年稍早給過大家一個統計數字：所有由顧問主導的[資產中，略高於 20% 來自 Workplace 或 E*TRADE 的來源]（公司在電話會議後更正）。我的意思是，這個比例仍然成立，並沒有成長。這也顯示 fee-based 模式與顧問主導模式的威力有多大。

That's helpful. And then just a follow-up on NII, and we heard your outlook for 4Q. But as you look at the rate backdrop today, trends in loan growth still seem to be positive. Is it reasonable to think about loan NII growth as we think about 2027 based upon kind of where things sit today?

這很有幫助。接著追問一下淨利息收入（NII）：我們聽到了你們對第四季（4Q）的展望。但以目前的利率背景來看，放款成長的趨勢似乎仍偏正向。那麼以今天的狀況為基礎，去思考 2027 年的放款 NII 成長，這樣的推論合理嗎？

Yes. We do expect to see NII over next year, expand. And to your point, that's largely on the back of loan growth.

是的。我們預期明年 NII 會擴張。而如你所說，這主要是由放款成長所帶動。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

Ebrahim Poonawala，美國銀行（Bank of America）。

I guess just one question first on -- when we think about the wealth management business, like the conversion from Workplace seems to be going extremely well. All the investments you talked about in a world where like there's a lot of focus on just downside risks to the revenue environment. How should we think about that pretax margin? Like its 30%, I get you're making investments for the foreseeable future. So you're not like short-term targeting a higher pretax margin.

我想先問一個問題——當我們思考財富管理業務時，從 Workplace 的轉換看起來進展非常順利。在你們談到的所有投資之下，而市場又非常關注營收環境的下行風險，我們應該如何看待稅前利潤率（pretax margin）？例如現在是 30%，我理解你們在可預見的未來仍會持續投資。所以你們並不是以短期為目標去追求更高的稅前利潤率。

I'm trying to get to like is all this conversion going to translate into a better pretax margin environment? And if things were to slow down, does it add to defensibility of earnings within that business and to the firm-wide ROE? If you could help us sort of think through that.

我想釐清的是：這些轉換是否會轉化為更好的稅前利潤率環境？以及如果景氣放緩，這是否會提升該業務盈餘的防禦性，並改善全公司層面的股東權益報酬率（ROE）？如果你能幫我們把這個邏輯梳理一下。

Yes. The answer is yes. The pretax margin will expand over time with scale. And to your point, our intention is not to manage it on a quarter-by-quarter basis. It's to make investments over the long term.

是的。答案是肯定的。稅前利潤率會隨著規模擴大而在時間推移中提升。而如你所說，我們的意圖不是按季去管理它。而是做長期投資。

You've seen us make those investments across our channels, Workplace is self-directed and advisory that increases the breadth of the funnel, moves it to fee-based, and we see an expansion of margins since the beginning -- this inception of this larger business model well over a decade ago.

你們看到我們在各個通路都做了這些投資：Workplace、自助交易（self-directed）以及顧問服務（advisory），這會擴大漏斗的廣度，把資產導向 fee-based；而自從——這個更大型的商業模式在十多年前啟動以來，我們就看到利潤率持續擴張。

I mean, Ebrahim, just to add to that, we have we've really tried to be very disciplined about the slide deck and these targets, these objectives and to really meet them and beat them. And as you know, 5 quarters of above 20% ROTCE and some would say, okay, then are you going to raise that. And then you're at 30%, you're going to raise that. And we're really trying to, again, speak to, as you know, the core of our very long-term real money shareholder base. They want multiple year returns, higher highs, higher lows in all seasons.

Ebrahim，我再補充一下：我們在簡報（slide deck）與這些目標、這些目的上，一直努力保持高度紀律，並真正做到達標甚至超標。而如你所知，我們已經連續 5 個季度 ROTCE 超過 20%，有人會說，好，那你們是不是要把目標往上調。接著你們到 30%，又要再往上調。我們其實是想再次對你也知道的——我們核心、非常長期、真正投入資金的股東基礎（real money shareholder base）——說清楚。他們要的是多年期的回報，在所有景氣循環中都能「高點更高、低點也更高」。

Now obviously, for risk off, and things are really tough, and the glass is more than half and gets three quarters empty, we're going to be slower because it's going to be less to do. But this idea of having something that really is close to all weather but then can actually power higher over time just on scale and the ability to actually activate the funnel. That is what the team is most focused on.

當然，在風險趨避（risk off）且環境非常艱難、杯子不只半空而是變成四分之三空的時候，我們會更慢，因為可做的事情會更少。但這個概念是：擁有一個幾乎接近全天候（all weather）的業務，同時又能僅靠規模與實際啟動漏斗的能力，隨時間推移而推動更高的成長。這就是團隊最專注的方向。

So if there was one statistic of all of the CF statistics, and I know that the market backdrop in the last couple of days has been more mixed. But if there's one takeaway, it's $1 trillion of net new assets over the last three years, which was preceded by $1 trillion of net new assets in the preceding three years.

所以如果要從所有的 CF 統計數字中挑一個——我知道過去幾天的市場背景更為分歧——但如果只能帶走一個重點，那就是過去三年淨新增資產（net new assets）達到 1 兆美元，而在此之前的三年也同樣是 1 兆美元的淨新增資產。

And the key then is will those assets make their way ultimately to fee-based flows into the financial adviser and in many cases, yes. And the ability for us to -- with the financial adviser monetize that singular experience and actually to have Technology Act as our friend here over the long expensive time, the long expense of time that should create incremental operating leverage. So the answer is, ultimately, yes.

而關鍵在於，這些資產最終是否會轉化為流向財務顧問端的收費型資金流入？在很多情況下，答案是肯定的。而我們與財務顧問一起，將那種單一體驗變現的能力，並且在這裡讓科技成為我們的助力——在漫長且成本高昂的時間跨度中——應該能夠帶來額外的營運槓桿。所以最終答案是：是的。

That's good color. And maybe separately, I mean it still seems like a sandbox, but the SEC put out some rules around tokenized equities. Just talk to us, what does that mean for your business? How are you investing and the ability of the firm to one defend share gain share if we move -- if it gains steam as far as just broad-based tokenization of equities is concerned?

這個說明很有幫助。另外也許分開來看，我是說它看起來仍像是在沙盒階段，但美國證券交易委員會（SEC）發布了一些關於代幣化股票的規則。請跟我們談談，這對你們的業務意味著什麼？你們如何投資？以及如果股票的廣泛代幣化開始加速推進，貴公司在一方面防守、另一方面爭取市占（share gain）的能力如何？

Sure. I think that Ted and one of his comments said, we're excited about the future of wealth and investing in this and what does it mean to think about the future of wealth management. The tokenized world is just a portion of that. And the tokenized world means it's faster and easier to move assets around and you will need advice to think about those assets and how do you move those assets quickly. What are the right assets to move? And how do you think about token usage?

當然。我認為 Ted 在其中一則評論裡提到，我們對財富與投資的未來感到興奮，而這也意味著要思考財富管理的未來會是什麼樣子。代幣化世界只是其中的一部分。而代幣化世界的意義在於：資產移轉會更快、更容易；你也會需要建議來思考這些資產，以及如何快速移動這些資產。哪些資產適合移動？以及你如何看待代幣的使用？

So our perspective, it's just an opportunity. Another opportunity that we've been investing in. We've been investing in the digital space, more broadly across both wealth and ISG. And I think we'll continue to be a leader, specifically as investors and clients demand device.

所以從我們的角度來看，這就是一個機會。是我們一直在投入的另一個機會。我們一直在數位領域投資，更廣泛地涵蓋財富管理與 ISG 兩端。我認為我們會持續保持領先，特別是在投資人與客戶需求驅動之下。

Devin Ryan with Citizens Bank.

Citizens Bank 的 Devin Ryan。

I want to start on institutional equities. Obviously, as we continue to see these really impressive results come through revenues are almost double where they were in 2024. I think a lot of us and clients are trying to understand better contextualize the cyclical versus secular involvements. And obviously, we see the largest firms consolidating share, the prime businesses are doing great.

我想先從機構股票業務談起。顯然，隨著我們持續看到這些非常亮眼的成果，營收幾乎是 2024 年時的兩倍。我想我們很多人以及客戶都在試著更好地理解並脈絡化其中的週期性因素與結構性（長期）因素。而且很明顯，我們看到最大的公司正在整併市占，主經紀（prime）業務表現也非常好。

And it seems like geographies like Asia are structurally larger, but can you help us unpack like from your lens, how much of this feels cyclical versus just you're seeing a bigger pie and there's new areas that are contributing that weren't historically and you're gaining market share in those areas?

而且看起來像亞洲這樣的地區在結構上變得更大了；但你能否從你們的視角幫我們拆解一下：這其中有多少更像是週期性的？又有多少是因為你們看到整體市場餅變大、出現了過去沒有的新貢獻領域，並且你們在那些領域取得了市占？

Well, we're still in a stock-based world. Equities are still all things being equal, the attractive asset class. The question would be if interest rates were to back up further and it would start pinching corporate earnings, would you see earnings multiple contraction and then it becomes less attractive to be allocated to equities. I mean, just sort of vanilla. But we're still in an equities world, and we're seeing growth and we're seeing the returns on capital being generated by very healthy large-cap corporates.

嗯，我們仍然處在一個以股票為主的世界。在其他條件相同的情況下，股票仍然是具吸引力的資產類別。問題在於：如果利率進一步上行，開始擠壓企業獲利，你是否會看到本益比收縮，進而使得配置股票的吸引力下降。我的意思是，這就是很基本的情境。但我們仍然在一個股票市場主導的環境中；我們看到成長，也看到非常健康的大型企業正在產生資本報酬。

So when you put that together with the need for private equity and other private capital underwriters to effectively harvest their portfolio through the public markets. that is all kind of in our favour.

因此，當你把這些因素與私募股權及其他私募資本承銷商需要透過公開市場有效地「收割」其投資組合（退出/變現）的需求結合起來看，這整體上都對我們有利。

If we go way back in time, it's just, I guess, 15 years ago, when we created the 9 boxes, cash derivatives and prime brokerage in 3 regions, we were recovering post GFC, and we got the prime brokerage piece right early because we had world-class technology in MSET, that linked us to a world-class high-touch cash product. That continues today. You see it in our mandates to stabilize IPO. You see it in our ability to work large transactions for asset managers. You see it in our ability to deliver research content.

如果我們把時間拉回很久以前，大概 15 年前，當我們在三個區域建立「九宮格」（9 boxes）——現貨、衍生品與主經紀（prime brokerage）——那時我們正處於全球金融危機（GFC）後的復甦期；我們很早就把主經紀這塊做對了，因為我們在 MSET 擁有世界級的科技，將我們與世界級的高接觸（high-touch）現貨產品連結起來。這點一直延續到今天。你可以在我們穩定 IPO 的委任案中看到。你也可以在我們為資產管理人處理大型交易的能力上看到。

What's changed here in recent years under the leadership of Ellen and Gokul is really the build-out of a world-class derivatives business. This is something that I just didn't get done. And they have figured it out. It's really the missing link in a world that has gone way beyond cash to hedge, to express a customized view. It's a global business, and they've done a wonderful job knitting cash to prime brokerage through the derivatives product.

近年來在 Ellen 與 Gokul 的領導下，真正改變的是我們打造出世界級衍生品業務的建置。這是我當時沒有完成的事情。而他們把它做成了。在一個早已遠遠超越現貨、需要用來避險並表達客製化觀點的世界裡，這其實是缺失的關鍵環節。這是一個全球性業務，而他們透過衍生品產品，把現貨與主經紀串接起來，做得非常出色。

So in that sense, I'd say the equities business is more robust than it was seven or eight years ago. But it would be silly to say that it's not subject to cycles and investor sentiment.

所以從這個角度來說，我會說股票業務比七、八年前更為穩健。但如果說它不受景氣循環與投資人情緒影響，那就太不切實際了。

We saw in September when volumes were drying up in Asia, and that became sort of the re-underwriting moment in the US. Of course, the volumes are lower, which means the output is going to be lower for everybody in the ecosystem. But we clearly have found a position now that's an enviable one, where we act as a trusted adviser now in the secondary context to asset managers across the nine boxes.

我們在 9 月看到亞洲的成交量開始枯竭，而那也成為美國某種重新承銷（re-underwriting）的時刻。當然，成交量較低就意味著整個生態系裡每個人的產出都會更低。但我們顯然已經找到一個令人稱羨的位置：在次級市場情境下，我們作為跨九宮格、服務資產管理人的可信賴顧問。

And here, a little like wealth, actually much like well, scale is existentially important, you have to be faster, better, cheaper in addition to having the ability to get the trust of the client and you got to be global, which is why it matters that we are -- we're big in London, and we're big in Paris. But so too in Hong Kong, Tokyo, in Seoul, in India and, of course, in the US. So it's a business that I think inures to the benefit of the largest players. We will continue to focus on scaling that. We're also very focused on use of capital.

而在這裡，有點像財富管理——其實非常像——規模在本質上至關重要；除了要能取得客戶信任之外，你還必須更快、更好、更便宜，而且你必須是全球化的。這也是為什麼我們在倫敦很大、在巴黎也很大很重要。同樣地，在香港、東京、首爾、印度，當然還有美國，我們也都很強。所以我認為這是一個會讓最大型參與者受益的業務。我們會持續聚焦於擴大規模。

One of the underlying themes of today for us, in addition to the $1 trillion every three years, and I know there's potential for distraction with all that's going on in the world and the whole group are reporting is the fact that we have a 300 basis point CET1 buffer. That is not a small matter. That is something we have worked to achieve assiduously at the top of the house in partnership with the business unit.

今天對我們而言的其中一個底層主題，除了每三年 1 兆美元之外——我知道在世界局勢與整個同業都在公布財報的情況下，可能會有分心的因素——就是我們擁有 300 個基點的 CET1 緩衝。這不是小事。這是我們在總部層級與各業務單位合作下，長期且一絲不苟努力達成的成果。

And of course, there are other ways to measure usage SLR and the like, but we like the capital buffer because it in different areas will allow us to actually put more capital to clients through the equities and fixed income businesses when the opportunity arises.

當然，還有其他衡量使用情況的方法，例如 SLR 等等，但我們喜歡資本緩衝，因為它在不同領域能讓我們在機會出現時，透過股票與固定收益業務，實際上把更多資本提供給客戶。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Chris McGratty, KBW.

KBW 的 Chris McGratty。

Just going back to the prior question. So it's more of a geography capital allocation, where are you most excited about in the next couple of years to lean into capital allocation domestically, internationally by product? So maybe just a few comments there would be great.

回到前一個問題。所以這更像是地理區域與資本配置的問題：未來幾年你們最看好在哪些地方加大資本配置——在國內、國際上，或按產品線來看？所以如果能就此給幾點評論會很棒。

I'll take a crack at it. I'm interested, Sharon will improve my answer. I think the answer geographically is a global allocation. I think part of this is you can't decide you wanted to be big in Hong Kong over the last three years. You already were in Hong Kong for the last 20, 25 years with a world-class team or you weren't, and we have been there.

我先試著回答一下。我想 Sharon 會補強我的答案。我認為從地理上來看，答案是全球配置。其中一部分原因是：你不可能在過去三年才決定想在香港做大。你要嘛在過去 20、25 年就已經在香港，並且擁有世界級團隊；要嘛就沒有。而我們一直都在那裡。

Tokyo, of course, is super-hot. We've been there with our partners at MUFG, we have the largest capital markets franchise in Japan, both clearing FX and also working in the equity space amongst the global firms. And you just sort of go down the tick list, a number of us who have been in Europe the last couple of weeks, need to be big across the UK and the continent. And of course, the US continues to be fertile especially in a world of dispersion where you want to own new issues and performance that is just beyond beta. So I think the answer is a geographic matter. We've had edge in Asia for sure, but I think the answer is global.

東京當然是超級火熱。我們與三菱日聯金融集團（MUFG）的合作夥伴一起在那裡深耕；我們在日本擁有最大的資本市場業務版圖，在全球同業中同時涵蓋外匯清算，以及股票領域的業務。你沿著清單往下看，過去幾週我們當中有不少人在歐洲，也需要在英國與歐陸兩邊都做大做強。當然，美國仍然是一片沃土，特別是在一個分散度很高的市場環境中，你會想持有新發行標的，以及那些超越單純 beta 的表現。所以我認為答案在於地理分布。我們在亞洲確實有優勢，但我認為答案是全球性的。

And again, I would give a similar answer with respect to the products. I think it's the integrated solution across cash, derivatives, and prime brokerage. I don't think you can just be the prime broker of choice. You have to have proper risk management and margin around the right clients. and you need to be able to monetize them not just through the financing product, but through your ability to execute low and high-touch cash and the derivatives product as well.

再一次，就產品面而言，我也會給出類似的答案。我認為關鍵在於跨現金產品、衍生性商品與主經紀（prime brokerage）的整合式解決方案。我不認為你只要成為首選主經紀商就夠了。你必須對合適的客戶具備完善的風險管理與保證金管理。而且你需要能夠將客戶價值變現，不僅透過融資產品，還要透過你在低觸及與高觸及的現金交易執行能力，以及衍生性商品產品的能力。

And I would add that what's most critically important in this period is the integration across the markets businesses, some clients, and this goes back to some of the AI questions. It isn't just a banking phenomenon, it becomes a fixed income secured lending securitized lending phenomenon where we have a world-class group.

我還要補充，在這個時期最關鍵的重要性在於市場業務之間的整合、部分客戶的整合；這也回到一些關於 AI 的問題。這不只是銀行業的現象，它也延伸成為固定收益的擔保放款、證券化放款的現象，而我們在這方面擁有世界級團隊。

So the micro and macro and commodities folks working closely with equities and an integrated markets offering where folks have sat in each seat and they want to generate the best risk-adjusted return for the client. That's something that is not just kind of a technocratic exercise, but also a behavioural one and something that is tried and true here because people get along real well. And that actually matters and the clients see it.

因此，微觀與宏觀以及商品團隊與股票團隊緊密合作，提供整合式的市場服務；大家都坐過各個席位，並希望為客戶創造最佳的風險調整後報酬。這不只是某種技術官僚式的作業，也是一種行為層面的事情；而且在這裡已被反覆驗證有效，因為大家合作得非常融洽。而這其實很重要，客戶也看得見。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

Erika Najarian，瑞銀（UBS）。

Just to take a step back, Ted, you asked a lot about the pipeline as it relates to the AI super cycle, and I appreciate your prepared remarks. Just to zoom in on this a little bit. Clearly, the equity market or at least bank investors are starting to worry about the impact of sustainably higher rates obviously, both in the direction of the Fed and the 10-year. And as you talk to your clients broadly across sectors and across the type of capital need, how are higher rates in the sort of sustained level and the 10-year impacting, if at all, sort of their decisions in terms of capital raising?

先退一步看，Ted，你在談到 AI 超級循環時，問了很多關於案源管線（pipeline）的问题，我也很感謝你事先準備的發言。我想把焦點再拉近一點。很明顯，股票市場、或至少銀行股投資人，開始擔心利率長期維持在較高水準的影響，這當然同時反映在聯準會政策方向以及 10 年期利率上。當你與各產業、各種資本需求類型的客戶廣泛交流時，較高利率在這種持續水準、以及 10 年期利率，是否、以及如何影響他們在募資決策上的考量？

An excellent question. It's not just higher nominal rates as you're saying, it's also higher real rates and the reality that the cost of capital is nothing like it was during a financial repression or the years following with COVID and stimulus. So you have to have real capital structure. And if it doesn't work, it's something that resembles in some cases, an investment-grade capital structure in other cases, a sub-investment-grade capital structure at sub-investment cost of capital on a traditional basis. If that's not working, the immediacy of the market is going to find that out.

這是個很棒的問題。如你所說，不只是名目利率更高，實質利率也更高；而且現實是，資本成本已經完全不同於金融抑制時期，或 COVID 之後搭配刺激政策的那些年。所以你必須有真正可行的資本結構。如果行不通，那在某些情況下就會變成看起來像投資級的資本結構；在另一些情況下，則是次投資級的資本結構，卻仍以傳統方式承擔次投資級的資本成本。如果這套不成立，市場的即時性很快就會揭露出來。

And we, as a structure, as an underwriter, of course, we want to try to pick winners, and we want to be giving advice at the right place, but where we are committing capital as a lender or helping in any respect, again, putting our own balance sheet to work.

而我們，作為結構設計者、作為承銷商，當然希望挑選贏家，也希望在正確的位置提供建議；但在我們以放款人身分承諾資本、或以任何方式提供協助時，本質上都是在動用我們自己的資產負債表。

This is part of the implication of double overweight. Double overweight doesn't mean just that we're going to send bankers out to try to get business, but that we are being incredibly rigorous and sharp about where we want to allocate risk capital where a bridge or where a relationship loan that in theory was a piece of debt turns into a piece of equity, which eventually gets provisioned. I imagine there are going to be cases where we are going to make mistakes. That is just an inevitable reality of something that is a generational change.

這也是「雙重加碼」（double overweight）的含意之一。雙重加碼不只是指我們會派銀行家出去爭取業務，而是指我們在決定把風險資本配置到哪裡時會極度嚴謹、非常精準——例如某筆過橋貸款或關係型貸款，理論上原本是一筆債務，卻轉變成一筆股權，最終需要提列備抵。我想一定會有我們犯錯的案例。這就是世代性變革下不可避免的現實。

But our job is to minimize the foolishness and to make sure that we are active and where it makes sense for us to help bridge capital, but ultimately, our value add, again, is the M&A advice, the strategic advice versus just putting a bunch of balance sheet out. But you are right, when there is elevated and elevated interest rate world, if interest rates are higher as a function of higher productivity and higher GDP all is good. That is back to a world that we saw pre-GFC, where we see real GDP at 2% or 3%. And if this is helping stimulate that, I think that would be viewed as a very healthy and necessary phenomenon.

但我們的工作是把愚蠢的決策降到最低，並確保我們在適合的地方保持積極、在合理時協助銜接資本；但歸根結底，我們的附加價值仍是併購（M&A）建議、策略建議，而不是單純丟出一大堆資產負債表資源。不過你說得對，在利率高企、而且持續偏高的世界裡，如果利率上升是因為生產力提高、GDP 提高，那一切都很好。那會回到我們在全球金融危機（GFC）前看到的世界，實質 GDP 約 2% 或 3%。如果這有助於刺激那樣的成長，我認為這會被視為非常健康且必要的現象。

If higher interest rates are the result of a lack of control over inflationary expectations or supply-side shocks as a result of some of the geopolitical tail risk. Well, then obviously, people are going to be less excited about putting up illiquid risk capital. And that's just the reality of private and public markets checking each other, and that's why we have super sharp people in our capital markets business, GCM, constantly working with the entire ecosystem to see what works not just in the long term but whether a market window opens or closes.

但如果較高利率是因為通膨預期失控，或因某些地緣政治尾端風險導致供給面衝擊。那麼很顯然，人們就不會那麼熱衷於投入流動性較差的風險資本。這就是私募與公募市場彼此制衡的現實；也因此我們資本市場業務、全球資本市場（GCM）擁有非常敏銳的人才，持續與整個生態系合作，去判斷什麼在長期可行，以及市場窗口何時開啟或關閉。

Scott Siefers, TD Cowen.

Scott Siefers，TD Cowen。

A little bit of a follow-up on the capital markets state of play. I do have to say that the glass half full, half empty analogy is probably the clearest and the most balanced short-form commentary I've heard sort of regarding where we are and can go. I was just hoping you could speak specifically to

我想就資本市場現況再追問一下。我必須說，「杯子半滿、半空」的比喻，大概是我聽過對於我們所處位置以及可能走向，最清楚、也最平衡的短評。我只是希望你能具體談談

Thank you for that. Could you repeat that? Could you repeat that? I want to be sure there are probably some listeners left. Just if you don't mind give me a feedback on that.

謝謝你。你能再重複一次嗎？你能再重複一次嗎？我想確認一下，可能還有一些聽眾在。如果你不介意的話，請再給我一次回饋。

Whether you wrote it or others?

那是你寫的，還是別人寫的？

No, dude, I wrote it. I wrote it. I wrote it. No chat. It's me. Okay. Military College.

不，老兄，是我寫的。我寫的。我寫的。沒有用聊天機器人。是我。好吧。軍校出身。

Excellent. Excellent. I was hoping you could speak to the backlog in sponsor mandates specifically. That's an area that hasn't necessarily ebbed and flowed as much. It feels like it's been more of a waiting game for the last couple of years.

很好。很好。我希望你能談談贊助商委託案（sponsor mandates）的積壓量（backlog），特別是這一塊。這個領域不一定像其他領域那樣大起大落。感覺過去幾年更像是在等待時機。

How does that long-term break, what sort of the holdup as you see it? I mean, is the answer the same as what you just said in response to the last question or is it anything different as you see it?

這種長期的中斷，你認為卡在哪裡？我的意思是，你的答案會不會跟你剛才回應上一個問題時說的一樣，還是你覺得有什麼不同？

Yes. I'll give you two answers on that. First one is that at some point, the Piper must be paid, i.e. the investment portfolio needs to be harvested. On the other hand, there's been, of course, a ton of engineering, continuation funds, the ability to put some assets and new funds and in fairness, there are some very smart private equity investors and others in the private universe who have decided they actually want to keep some of these investments on their balance sheet that these investments work in a higher interest rate world back to Erika's question and that actually, over time, they can generate, low to mid double-digit IRRs with whatever they think is the appropriate leverage. Maybe they want to keep it for themselves or maybe they want to bring the harvesting out later. That's my positive response.

是的。對此我給你兩個答案。第一個是，到了某個時點，該付的代價終究要付——也就是投資組合需要被收割、需要退出變現。另一方面，當然也有大量的「工程操作」：延續基金（continuation funds）、把部分資產放進新基金的能力；公平地說，私募股權投資人以及私募領域裡其他一些非常聰明的投資人，已經決定他們其實想把其中一些投資留在自己的資產負債表上——回到 Erika 的問題，這些投資在高利率世界裡仍然行得通；而且隨著時間推移，它們可以在他們認為合適的槓桿水準下，產生低到中段的雙位數 IRR（內部報酬率）。也許他們想自己留著，或也許他們想把收割時間往後延。這是我偏正面的回應。

My less positive, less salutary response would be, it is a little frustrating. There are some sponsors in the universe that are stuck on marks and moist that are just not going to come to pass given the market is very sharp to what is in folks portfolio and very sharp to the reality of what the new weighted average cost of capital regime is around the world and what incremental country risk or supply risk or AI risk means for that asset.

我比較不那麼正面、也不那麼有益的回應是：這確實有點令人沮喪。在市場對人們投資組合裡的內容非常敏銳、也非常清楚全球新的加權平均資本成本（WACC）體制是什麼，以及額外的國家風險、供給風險或 AI 風險對該資產意味著什麼的情況下，市場上仍有一些贊助方（sponsors）卡在一些估值標記（marks）與「moist」上，而那些情況就是不太可能發生。

So the question is going to be at what point are they going to come? And how are they going to come? And I think in some cases, the leading private equity firms and others have an incredibly smart and agile about bringing some stuff that maybe doesn't have a higher mark, but it's ready for prime time, and maybe they bring that along with stuff that is a big winner. So they've had sort of portfolio composition mix.

所以問題會是：他們會在什麼時點出現？又會以什麼方式出現？我認為在某些情況下，領先的私募股權公司與其他機構非常聰明且靈活，會把一些也許沒有更高估值標記、但已經準備好上場的資產拿出來，並且可能把它與一些大贏家一起帶到市場。因此他們在投資組合的組成與搭配上做了某種混合。

And then in other cases, they're holding on and hoping for better. And I think it is probably a longer odds bet that we are going to have a low interest rate, low inflation non-recessionary environment. I think that I would not bet on that, in which case, you really have to think about what old-school corporate finance looks like for these companies. And I think the smartest and most important private equity partners that we have we'll be continuing to find ways to bring these companies market against a favourable regulatory backdrop, whether they IPO them or go the M&A route.

但在其他情況下，他們選擇繼續抱著不放、期待更好的時機。而我認為，我們會回到低利率、低通膨、且不衰退的環境，這大概是一個勝算較低的賭注。我不會押注在那上面；在那種情況下，你就必須真正思考，對這些公司而言，傳統的公司財務會是什麼樣子。我也認為，我們最聰明、最重要的私募股權合作夥伴將會持續想辦法，在有利的監管背景下把這些公司帶到市場——不論是透過 IPO，或是走併購（M&A）路徑。

So in short, I think it is with some conditionality here, I continue to think it is a positive tailwind where perhaps I was mistaken was a couple of years ago thinking it might lead the corporate finance life cycle. It's very clear to all of us that it's the strategic real corporate universe that's leading the life cycle and the sponsors have to hustle to keep up with effectively the strategic bid and the strategic demand for capital.

所以簡而言之，在這裡帶有一些條件前提，我仍然認為這是一股正面的順風；我可能犯的錯，是在幾年前以為它可能會引領公司財務的生命週期。對我們所有人來說非常清楚的是，真正引領生命週期的是策略性、真正的企業界（strategic real corporate universe）；而贊助方必須加緊腳步，才能跟上策略性出價以及策略性資本需求。

Ben Gerlinger, Citi.

Ben Gerlinger，花旗（Citi）。

Well, it's admittedly not the easiest or best way to look at your franchise relative to others. But if you just look at league tables of equities or FICC or investment banking, you guys have stood out well in the areas that have been strong, and it's obviously not trying to say the pie has gotten bigger.

嗯，坦白說，這並不是把你們的特許經營（franchise）與其他人相比的最容易或最佳方式。但如果你只看股票、FICC 或投資銀行的排行榜（league tables），你們在那些表現強勢的領域確實很突出；當然我並不是想說整個市場的餅變大了。

So you've clearly made strategic investments. But when we look you guys versus peers within FICC itself, it seems like you have excess capital, you have a unique funding opportunity in front of you, but is FICC an area where there's a substantial amount of investment opportunity to take market share? Or is it an area more so focused on equities because equities on a global scale has so much more expansionary opportunity in front of it?

所以你們顯然做了策略性投資。但當我們在 FICC 本身把你們與同業相比時，看起來你們有超額資本（excess capital），眼前也有獨特的融資機會；那麼，FICC 是否是一個有大量投資機會、可以用來搶市占的領域？還是說，重點更偏向股票業務，因為股票在全球尺度上有更多擴張性的機會在前方？

Appreciate the question. The -- as you may recall, there was a time when fixed income was an Achilles heel of the Morgan Stanley Investment Bank dating back 15 years. And what is extraordinary about the leadership that Jay and Yaakovian brought to bear is the other stability of this business. against some headwinds and cross wins. These folks are generating efficient returns on capital and $2 billion a quarter.

感謝這個問題。如你可能記得，大約 15 年前，固定收益曾經是摩根士丹利投資銀行的阿基里斯腱。而 Jay 和 Yaakovian 的領導所帶來的非凡之處，在於讓這項業務在面對一些逆風與交錯的風向（cross winds）時，仍然保持穩定。（承上）這些團隊正在創造高效率的資本報酬，每季達到 20 億美元。

There was a time when we wanted to get to $1 billion a quarter. Importantly, the business is integrated with investment banking and capital markets on the private side and equities in a way that this institution has never seen, which is an extraordinary thing. So there's a lot of time that is spent helping to prosecute equities product or banking product that may not book into fixed income as an external segment matter, but absolutely books existentially in the underwriting line, the advisory line, the equities line. So I think it is a world-class business.

曾經有一段時間，我們的目標是每季做到 10 億美元。更重要的是，這項業務與投資銀行、資本市場（在私募端）以及股票業務的整合程度，是本機構前所未見的，這非常了不起。因此，我們花了很多時間去協助推進（prosecute）股票產品或銀行產品；這些可能不會在外部分部揭露上被記入固定收益，但在承銷收入線、顧問收入線、股票收入線上，絕對是實質地入帳。所以我認為這是一個世界級的業務。

We are not a traditional natural in the sense we're not a commercial bank dating back to all that. But given the work that we've done to bring assets on the bank. And given now the cost of funding is more pari-passu with the group and given the talent we have and given the importance of the AI ecosystem and important

我們並不是傳統意義上的「天然」玩家，因為我們不是一路以來的商業銀行。但考量到我們為了把資產納入銀行體系所做的工作，以及現在資金成本與同業更為同等（pari-passu），再加上我們擁有的人才，以及 AI 生態系的重要性與重要——

Importantly, that we've built the product out globally, I think our commodities business, over the 2 miles, our macro business and our micro business, Salv and Europe and others, these are folks that get the entire proposition of the integrated firm, and it's a business that we will continue to invest in over time.

更重要的是，我們已在全球把產品建置完成；我認為我們的大宗商品業務、我們的宏觀業務與微觀業務，以及 Salv、歐洲與其他地區的團隊，這些人都理解整合型公司的完整命題（proposition），而這也是一項我們會隨時間持續投入的業務。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you, everyone, for participating. You may now disconnect, and have a great day.

各位女士先生，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線，祝您有美好的一天。