Markel Group Inc. (MKL) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Markel Group second quarter 2026 conference call. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加 Markel Group 2026 年第二季電話會議。(接線員指示)

During the call today, we may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. They are based on current assumptions and opinions concerning a variety of known and unknown risks. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or suggested by such forward-looking statements. Additional information about factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements is included in the press release for our first quarter 2026 results as well as our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q, including under the captions safe harbor and cautionary statements and Risk Factors.

在今天的電話會議中，我們可能會在《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案》的意義下作出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述係基於目前對各種已知與未知風險的假設與觀點。實際結果可能與此等前瞻性陳述所載或所暗示者有重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所預測者出現重大差異之因素的更多資訊，載於我們 2026 年第一季業績新聞稿，以及我們最近一期的 Form 10-K 年報與 Form 10-Q 季報中，包括在「安全港與警示性陳述」及「風險因素」等標題之下。

We may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures during the call today. You may find the most directly comparable GAAP measures and a reconciliation to GAAP for these measures in the press release for our first quarter 2026 results or in our most recent Form 10-Q. The press release for our first quarter 2026 results as well as our Form 10-K and Form 10-Q can be found on our website at www.mklgroup.com in the Investor Relations section. Please note, this event is being recorded.

我們今天也可能討論若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。您可在我們 2026 年第一季業績新聞稿或最近一期 Form 10-Q 中，找到與之最直接可比的 GAAP 指標，以及這些指標與 GAAP 之間的調節表。我們 2026 年第一季業績新聞稿以及 Form 10-K 與 Form 10-Q，可於我們網站 www.mklgroup.com 的投資人關係專區查閱。請注意，本活動將被錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Tom Gayner, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

現在我想把會議交給執行長 Tom Gayner。請開始。

Thank you, Matt, and good morning, and welcome to our second quarter conference call. We welcome this opportunity to update you on our current and long-term performance and to answer your questions. As we've long stated, at Markel, we operate with the dual time horizon of however and right now.

謝謝你，Matt，早安，歡迎參加我們的第二季電話會議。我們很高興藉此機會向各位更新我們目前與長期的表現，並回答各位的問題。正如我們長期以來所說，在 Markel，我們以「永遠」與「當下」這兩個時間視角來經營。

I believe that the movie Field of Dreams got it right, the central premise of the film stated, if you build it, they will come. We think that is true, and we continue to work on building the system designed to relentlessly compound your capital.

我認為電影《夢幻成真》（Field of Dreams）抓住了重點；影片的核心前提是：只要你把它建好，他們就會來。我們認為這是真的，因此我們持續致力於打造一套旨在不斷複利增長各位資本的系統。

We are building the value of Markel and doing so in a way that rewards you, our shareholders, along with our customers and associates. That's the forever score comment. The right now performance indicates how the journey continues to progress step by step. To gauge the right now we look at adjusted operating income, which doesn't include many adjustments and simply GAAP operating income, excluding the short-term swings in public equity markets and amortization expenses. Equities often swing wildly quarter-to-quarter. Any short-term metric that includes those swings is noisy and doesn't do a very good job of describing our progress.

我們正在打造 Markel 的價值，並以能回饋各位股東、同時也回饋我們的客戶與同仁的方式來做到這一點。這就是「永遠的計分板」那段話的意思。而「當下」的表現則顯示這段旅程如何一步一步持續推進。為了衡量「當下」，我們看調整後營業利益（adjusted operating income），其調整項目不多，基本上就是 GAAP 營業利益，排除公開股票市場的短期波動以及攤銷費用。股票往往在各季之間大幅波動。任何包含這些波動的短期指標都會很吵雜，無法很好地描述我們的進展。

Over 5-year periods, public equity volatility tends to normalize. So over this time frame, we focus on operating income, which includes our equity returns. The adjusted operating income of our business plus growth in our public equity portfolio drives intrinsic value. Over time, we believe our stock price should track that intrinsic value.

在 5 年期間內，公開股票的波動性往往會趨於正常化。因此在這個時間框架下，我們聚焦於營業利益，其中包含我們的股票投資報酬。我們業務的調整後營業利益，加上我們公開股票投資組合的成長，共同推動內在價值。隨著時間推移，我們相信股價應該會追隨該內在價值。

But first, right now. In the second quarter of this year, our reorganized and refocused insurance business continued to improve profitability, either by strong underwriting and favorable reserve development. In our ongoing insurance business, excluding global (inaudible), grew the top line at 10% and voted a combined ratio in the low 90s. We are also seeing early signs of our expense discipline starting to show up in the numbers.

但先談「當下」。在今年第二季，我們已重整並重新聚焦的保險業務持續提升獲利能力，這得益於強勁的核保以及有利的準備金發展。在我們持續經營的保險業務中（不含全球（聽不清）），保費收入成長 10%，並繳出 90% 出頭的綜合比率。我們也看到費用紀律開始在數字上出現初步跡象。

Our consumer businesses also performed well. Our industrial businesses continue to be solidly profitable and cash generative despite the continued softer end market conditions they faced in the first half of 2026. And I'm encouraged that some tailwinds are beginning to emerge now.

我們的消費者事業也表現良好。儘管 2026 年上半年其所面臨的終端市場環境仍偏疲弱，我們的工業事業仍持續穩健獲利並創造現金。而我也受到鼓舞，因為目前開始出現一些順風因素。

Finally, in our financial business, we acknowledged last quarter that within our state national business, we experienced a collateral shortfall relative to our total exposure to a particular capacity provider currently in bankruptcy.

最後，在我們的金融事業方面，我們在上季已提到，在 State National 業務中，針對目前正處於破產程序的某一容量提供者（capacity provider），我們的擔保品相對於總曝險出現不足。

This quarter, after extensive actuarial work, including the engagement of an outside third party, we recognized a reserve of $205 million. I believe this event was driven more by unique and unfortunate confluence of events, including the nature of the business written, the jurisdictions involved, and the pace at which losses develop. This particular business involved began in 2012, and we ceased rating on these programs in 2021. This marks the first substantial credit loss and State Nationals over a 40-year history.

本季在進行大量精算工作（包括聘請外部第三方）後，我們認列了 2.05 億美元的準備金。我認為此事件更多是由一些獨特且不幸的事件交會所致，包括承作業務的性質、涉及的司法管轄區，以及損失發展的速度。這項特定業務始於 2012 年，而我們在 2021 年已停止對這些計畫進行報價（rating）。這是 State National 在 40 年歷史中首次出現重大的信用損失。

Per our practice, we've made what we believe is a conservative estimate of our ultimate liability consistent with our overall reserving philosophy. As is always the case of Markel, we do our best to recognize and report bad news quickly and let good news develop over time. Today's action is in keeping with that philosophy.

依照我們的一貫作法，我們做出了我們認為保守的最終責任估計，並與我們整體的準備金提列理念一致。一如 Markel 一貫作風，我們會盡力快速認列並揭露壞消息，並讓好消息隨時間自然發展。今天的作為正是秉持這項理念。

Turning to the forever. We focus on a 5-year time horizon to measure and compensate the senior management team. We think that 5-year timeframe matches up with a meaningful measurement of economic progress better than quarterly or annual metrics.

接著談「永遠」。我們以 5 年時間視角來衡量並獎酬高階管理團隊。我們認為，相較於季度或年度指標，5 年期間更能與有意義的經濟進展衡量相匹配。

For the last five years ending in June 2026, average annual operating income was $2.5 billion compared to $1.2 billion in the previous 5-year period for a compound annual growth rate of 15%. We've been repurchasing our stock at an increasing rate and have reduced the total outstanding shares from 13.7 million to 12.4 million, a reduction of just under 10% over the last five years.

截至 2026 年 6 月的過去五年，平均年度營業利益為 25 億美元，相較於前一個五年期間的 12 億美元，年複合成長率為 15%。我們以愈來愈高的速度回購自家股票，並將流通在外股數由 1,370 萬股降至 1,240 萬股，過去五年合計減少略低於 10%。

On a per share basis, average operating income per share was $188.94 for the last five years ending June 2026, compared to $88.99 for the previous 5-year period, with compound annual growth rate of 16%. The average shareholders' equity we used to produce these results grew by only 9% over the same period. That significant earnings growth delivered in a capital-efficient way on fewer shares.

以每股計算，截至 2026 年 6 月的過去五年，平均每股營業利益為 188.94 美元，相較於前一個五年期間的 88.99 美元，年複合成長率為 16%。用以產生這些成果的平均股東權益在同一期間僅成長 9%。這代表顯著的獲利成長，是以資本效率高、且在更少股數的情況下達成。

Our diversification is an important feature and benefit of the Markel Group system, which provides resilience and durability to our earnings and returns. When things go bump in the night, and they do, we can absorb it. When opportunities aligned with our values arise, we can pursue them. Our businesses continue to generate cash, which fuels the ongoing capital allocation activities. Over the last few years, the single largest use of capital has been the repurchasing of our own shares.

多元化是 Markel Group 系統的重要特徵與優勢，能為我們的獲利與報酬提供韌性與持久性。當夜裡出現顛簸時——而且確實會發生——我們能承受得住。當出現與我們價值觀一致的機會時，我們也能把握追求。我們的各項業務持續產生現金，為持續的資本配置活動提供燃料。過去幾年中，最大的單一資本用途就是回購我們自己的股票。

During the second quarter, we repurchased 237 million of our shares or roughly 1% of all shares outstanding up from 134 million in the first quarter. We have now repurchased more than $2 billion since the beginning of 2022.

在第二季期間，我們回購了 2.37 億美元的自家股票，約占流通在外股數的 1%，高於第一季的 1.34 億美元。自 2022 年初以來，我們累計回購已超過 20 億美元。

We continue to believe that at current prices and relative to the current set of alternatives, Markel shares represent the highest and best use of capital, and we're acting accordingly. I would also point out that we funded these repurchases through earnings. We are not leveraging up our borrowing money to repurchase shares.

我們仍然相信，以目前價格並相對於現有的替代選項，Markel 股票代表最高且最佳的資本用途，因此我們也據此採取行動。我也要指出，我們是以獲利來支應這些回購。我們並非透過加槓桿或借款來回購股票。

We continue to operate with a solid balance sheet, which positions us well to consider acquisition opportunities, make attractive investments, and repurchase shares through thick and thin. As these repurchases continue to take place at a discount to our estimate of intrinsic value, that should continue to increase the value of each share of Markel. Brian will now share some financial highlights and details from the first half of 2026, and then Simon will provide an update about our insurance operations.

我們持續以穩健的資產負債表經營，使我們能在景氣好壞之際都具備條件去考慮併購機會、進行具吸引力的投資，並回購股票。只要這些回購持續以低於我們對內在價值的估計之折價進行，就應能持續提升 Markel 每股的價值。接下來 Brian 將分享 2026 年上半年的一些財務重點與細節，然後 Simon 會就我們的保險營運提供最新進展。

We will then open the floor for any questions you may have. Andrew Crowley is also here to join us for that. Thank you again for your ongoing interest and support of Markel.

接下來我們將開放現場，回答各位可能有的任何問題。Andrew Crowley 也在現場，將與我們一同參與問答。再次感謝各位持續關注並支持 Markel。

Brian?

Brian？

Thank you, Tom, and good morning, everyone. First, Markel Group's consolidated results for the second quarter of 2026. Operating revenues, which exclude net investment gains, were $4 billion for the quarter and $7.6 billion for the first six months. Both periods were flat to comparable periods a year ago.

謝謝你，Tom，各位早安。首先，Markel Group 2026 年第二季的合併業績。營業收入（不含投資淨收益）本季為 40 億美元，前六個月為 76 億美元。兩個期間與去年同期相比皆持平。

Operating income, which includes net investment gains, was $1.6 billion for the quarter versus $1.1 billion in the second quarter of 2025. For the first six months of 2026, operating income was $1.3 billion versus $1.4 billion a year ago.

營業利益（包含投資淨收益）本季為 16 億美元，對比 2025 年第二季的 11 億美元。2026 年前六個月營業利益為 13 億美元，對比去年同期的 14 億美元。

Adjusted operating income, which excludes net investment gains and amortization expenses, totaled $436 million for the quarter versus $578 million in the second quarter of 2025. For the first six months of 2026, adjusted operating income was $934 million versus $1.1 billion a year ago.

調整後營業利益（不含投資淨收益與攤銷費用）本季合計 4.36 億美元，對比 2025 年第二季的 5.78 億美元。2026 年前六個月調整後營業利益為 9.34 億美元，對比去年同期的 11 億美元。

The prior two quarters served as a good illustration of why we use longer-term views of operating income performance as net investment gains were $1.2 billion for the quarter, more than reversing the investment losses from the first quarter. For the first six months of 2026, net investment gains totaled $440 million versus $431 million a year ago.

前兩季很好地說明了為何我們以較長期的角度來看營業利益表現，因為本季投資淨收益為 12 億美元，不僅抵銷且超過第一季的投資損失。2026 年前六個月投資淨收益合計 4.40 億美元，對比去年同期的 4.31 億美元。

Net income to common shareholders was $1.2 billion or $93 per diluted share for the quarter versus $631 million or $50 per diluted share a year ago. For the first six months of 2026, net income to common shareholders was $957 million or $74 per diluted share versus $753 million or $62 per diluted share a year ago.

歸屬普通股股東之淨利本季為 12 億美元，或稀釋後每股 93 美元，對比去年同期的 6.31 億美元或稀釋後每股 50 美元。2026 年前六個月歸屬普通股股東之淨利為 9.57 億美元，或稀釋後每股 74 美元，對比去年同期的 7.53 億美元或稀釋後每股 62 美元。

Moving now to our Markel Insurance business. Underwriting gross written premiums were $2.4 billion for the quarter versus $2.8 billion in the second quarter of 2025. For the first six months of 2026, underwriting gross written premiums were $4.6 billion versus $5.6 billion a year ago.

接著看我們的 Markel 保險業務。承保毛簽保費本季為 24 億美元，對比 2025 年第二季的 28 億美元。2026 年前六個月承保毛簽保費為 46 億美元，對比去年同期的 56 億美元。

In both periods, growth was 10% when excluding the impact of exiting our Global Reinsurance division and the transition of our Hagerty program to a fronting model. Net earned premiums were down 3% for both the quarter and the first six months of this year.

在兩個期間，若排除退出全球再保險事業部以及 Hagerty 計畫轉為前置（fronting）模式的影響，成長率皆為 10%。本季與今年前六個月的淨已賺保費皆下滑 3%。

The combined ratio was 93% for the quarter compared to 97% in the second quarter of 2025. The improvement was driven by more favorable prior year reserve development and a slightly lower expense ratio, partially offset by $41 million or 2 points of current year catastrophe losses related to the Middle East conflict.

本季綜合比率為 93%，對比 2025 年第二季的 97%。改善主要來自前期年度準備金發展較為有利，以及費用率略降；但部分被與中東衝突相關的本年度巨災損失 4,100 萬美元（約 2 個點）所抵銷。

For the first six months of 2026, the combined ratio was 93% versus 96% a year ago and included $76 million or 2 points of Middle East conflict losses while the prior year period included $61 million or 1.5 points of losses from the California wildfires.

2026 年前六個月綜合比率為 93%，對比去年同期的 96%；其中包含與中東衝突相關的損失 7,600 萬美元（約 2 個點），而去年同期則包含加州野火損失 6,100 萬美元（約 1.5 個點）。

Adjusted operating income was $376 million for the quarter, versus $270 million in the second quarter of 2025. For the first six months of 2026, adjusted operating income was $746 million versus $552 million a year ago.

調整後營業利益本季為 3.76 億美元，對比 2025 年第二季的 2.70 億美元。2026 年前六個月調整後營業利益為 7.46 億美元，對比去年同期的 5.52 億美元。

In both periods, the increases were driven by improved underwriting profits and higher net investment income. Total operating income, which includes net investment gains within our insurance operations, for the first half of this year was $1.2 billion, putting us on pace to achieve double-digit return on equity for the full year.

在兩個期間，增加主要由承保利潤改善與淨投資收益提高所帶動。今年上半年總營業利益（包含保險營運中的投資淨收益）為 12 億美元，使我們有望在全年達成兩位數的股東權益報酬率。

Looking now at the ongoing divisions within our insurance operations. Within our International division, gross written premiums were $890 million, up 31% versus the second quarter of 2025 with growth across the division, led by marine and energy, general liabilities, and professional liability lines. The combined ratio was 82% compared to 78% a year ago with the current quarter, including 6 points of losses from the Middle East conflict.

接著看我們保險營運中的持續經營事業部。在國際事業部，毛簽保費為 8.90 億美元，較 2025 年第二季成長 31%；成長遍及整個事業部，其中以海事與能源、一般責任及專業責任險種領先。綜合比率為 82%，對比去年同期的 78%；本季包含與中東衝突相關的損失 6 個點。

For our US Wholesale and Specialty division, gross written premiums were $799 million, down 4% versus the second quarter of 2025, driven by intentional contraction in binding contractors and casualty lines and a softening property rate environment, partially offset by growth in professional liability lines.

在美國批發與專業事業部，毛簽保費為 7.99 億美元，較 2025 年第二季下滑 4%；主要因我們在綁定承包商與意外險種上有意收縮，以及財產險費率環境轉趨疲軟；部分被專業責任險種的成長所抵銷。

The combined ratio improved to 97% from 102% a year ago, reflecting lower loss and expense ratios from our continued underwriting actions. Within our Programs and Solutions division, underwriting gross written premiums were $717 million, down 27% from the second quarter of 2025. This reduction was driven by the shift of our Hagerty program to a pure fronting model.

綜合比率由去年的 102% 改善至 97%，反映我們持續採取承保措施後，損失率與費用率下降。在計畫與解決方案事業部，承保毛簽保費為 7.17 億美元，較 2025 年第二季下滑 27%。此下降主要由 Hagerty 計畫轉為純前置（pure fronting）模式所致。

Excluding that impact, gross written premiums grew by 6%, led by our delegated programs and Personal Lines businesses. The combined ratio was 94%, up from 91% a year ago, with the increase reflecting a higher current accident year loss ratio in our personal umbrella line and within certain delegated programs.

若排除該影響，毛簽保費成長 6%，主要由我們的委任（delegated）計畫與個人險業務帶動。綜合比率為 94%，高於去年的 91%；上升反映個人超額責任險（personal umbrella）以及部分委任計畫的本事故年度損失率較高。

Turning now to our consolidated investment portfolio. Net investment income totaled $256 million for the quarter, up 11% from the second quarter of 2025, reflecting a higher average book yield and an increase in the average balances within our fixed maturity portfolio.

接著看我們的合併投資組合。本季淨投資收益合計 2.56 億美元，較 2025 年第二季成長 11%，反映平均帳面殖利率較高，以及固定到期投資組合的平均餘額增加。

For the first six months of 2026, net investment income was $512 million, up 10% from a year ago. The fair value of our public equity holdings increased to $13.5 billion at quarter end, up from $12.3 billion at the end of the first quarter, which represents a 10% increase. For the first six months, the portfolio increased by 4%. Our cumulative pretax unrealized gain on our equity holdings at the end of the period was $9.3 billion.

2026 年前六個月淨投資收益為 5.12 億美元，較去年同期成長 10%。本季季末，我們的公開股票持有部位公允價值增至 135 億美元，高於第一季季末的 123 億美元，增幅為 10%。前六個月整體投資組合增加 4%。期末我們股票持有部位的累計稅前未實現收益為 93 億美元。

Moving now to our Industrial segment. Revenue was $1 billion for the quarter, a 2% increase versus the second quarter of 2025, driven by the contribution from a bolt-on acquisition in December of 2025. Organic revenue was flat as higher sales volume of our precast concrete products and fire safety services were offset by lower sales volume on our car hauling equipment due to a continued down cycle in demand for that industry.

接著看我們的工業事業群。本季營收為 10 億美元，較 2025 年第二季成長 2%，主要由 2025 年 12 月一項附加收購（bolt-on acquisition）的貢獻所帶動。有機營收持平：預鑄混凝土產品與消防安全服務的銷量增加，被汽車運輸設備因該產業需求持續處於下行週期而導致的銷量下滑所抵銷。

For the first six months of 2026, revenue was $1.9 billion, up 4% from a year ago, with organic revenue growth of 2%. Adjusted operating income was $75 million for the quarter, versus $105 million in the second quarter of 2025, primarily reflecting tighter margins along with softer demand within our car hauling equipment business. For the first six months of 2026, adjusted operating income was $125 million versus $162 million in the prior year.

2026 年前六個月營收為 19 億美元，較去年同期成長 4%，其中有機營收成長 2%。本季調整後營業利益為 7,500 萬美元，對比 2025 年第二季的 1.05 億美元，主要反映利潤率收緊，以及汽車運輸設備業務需求較疲弱。2026 年前六個月調整後營業利益為 1.25 億美元，對比去年同期的 1.62 億美元。

Moving to our Financial segment. Revenue was $171 million for the quarter versus $173 million in the second quarter of 2025. For the first six months of 2026, revenue was $333 million versus $351 million a year ago, with the 6-month period last year, including nonrecurring gains of $41 million from our investment in Velocity and the sale of its MGA operations.

接著看我們的金融事業群。本季營收為 1.71 億美元，對比 2025 年第二季的 1.73 億美元。2026 年前六個月營收為 3.33 億美元，對比去年同期的 3.51 億美元；去年同期的六個月期間包含一次性收益 4,100 萬美元，來自我們對 Velocity 的投資以及其 MGA 業務的出售。

Financial segment recorded an adjusted operating loss of $149 million for the quarter versus income of $78 million a year ago. For the first six months of 2026, the segment recorded an adjusted operating loss of $113 million versus income of $158 million a year ago. Both periods were impacted by the $205 million bad debt charge within our State National Programs unit in the second quarter of this year.

金融事業群本季錄得調整後營業損失 1.49 億美元，對比去年同期的營業利益 7,800 萬美元。2026 年前六個月，該事業群錄得調整後營業損失 1.13 億美元，對比去年同期的營業利益 1.58 億美元。兩個期間皆受到今年第二季在 State National Programs 單位認列 2.05 億美元呆帳費用的影響。

Moving now to the Consumer and Other segment. Revenue was $552 million for the quarter, a 4% increase versus the second quarter of 2025 relating to organic revenue growth in ornamental plants during the seasonality strongest period of the year.

現在轉到消費者及其他（Consumer and Other）部門。本季營收為5.52億美元，較2025年第二季成長4%，主要與一年中季節性最強期間觀賞植物的有機營收成長有關。

For the first six months of 2026, revenue was $832 million, up 2% from a year ago, with organic revenue essentially flat. Adjusted operating income was $122 million versus $102 million in the second quarter of 2025, primarily attributed to the increased sales volume.

2026年前六個月營收為8.32億美元，較去年同期成長2%，其中有機營收基本持平。調整後營業利益為1.22億美元，較2025年第二季的1.02億美元增加，主要歸因於銷售量提升。

For the first six months of 2026, adjusted operating income was $162 million versus $134 million a year ago. Finally, regarding capital allocation. As Tom has described many times before, we think about capital allocation as a 360-degree set of opportunities.

2026年前六個月調整後營業利益為1.62億美元，較去年同期的1.34億美元增加。最後，關於資本配置。如Tom過去多次所述，我們將資本配置視為一套360度的機會集合。

The cash of our market-leading businesses generate -- the cash that our market-leading businesses generate can be reinvested in growth opportunities within our existing businesses used to acquire new wholly owned businesses invested in publicly traded equity securities are used to repurchase our own shares. We direct capital to wherever we see the best long-term return.

我們市場領先業務所產生的現金——我們市場領先業務所產生的現金——可以再投資於既有業務內的成長機會、用於收購新的全資子公司、投資於公開交易的股權證券，或用於回購我們自己的股票。我們將資本導向我們認為能帶來最佳長期報酬之處。

Some notes from this quarter. Within public equities, net purchases were nominal, totaling $21 million. Acquisitions totaled $24 million of small downstream deals within our existing companies. We also paid $74 million to increase our ownership stake in our existing businesses.

本季有幾點說明。在公開股權投資方面，淨買入金額不大，合計2,100萬美元。併購合計2,400萬美元，主要為我們既有公司內的小型下游交易。我們也支付7,400萬美元以提高對既有業務的持股比例。

Regarding share repurchases, we repurchased 237 million in shares during the quarter and 371 million year-to-date, reducing our share count at the end of the second quarter to 12.4 million shares. With that, I will turn the call over to Simon.

關於股票回購，我們本季回購2.37億美元的股票，年初至今累計回購3.71億美元，使得第二季末的流通股數降至1,240萬股。接下來我把電話交給Simon。

Thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone. This time last year, I reported on a quarter where our combined ratio stood in the high 90s. Today, I'm pleased to report a 93% combined ratio for Markel Insurance for the fourth quarter in a row.

謝謝你，Brian，各位早安。去年此時，我報告的那一季我們的綜合比率在接近100%的高90%區間。今天，我很高興報告Markel Insurance已連續第四個季度達成93%的綜合比率。

Improving our performance and generating greater levels of consistency has been a central focus for the leadership team. The improvement has come on the back of some tough decisions where we've chosen the sanity of bottom line profit over the vanity of top line growth.

提升績效並產生更高程度的一致性，一直是領導團隊的核心重點。這項改善來自一些艱難的決策：我們選擇以損益表底線的獲利理性，優先於營收成長的虛榮。

Overall, our headline GWP is down for the quarter, but excluding the global reexit and the transition of the Hagerty book to a service fee basis, we grew 10%. This growth is driven by the business units where we have seen the most success in recent years, especially from our International division.

整體而言，本季我們的表面總保費（GWP）下降，但若排除全球再保退出（global reexit）以及Hagerty保單組合轉為服務費模式的影響，我們成長了10%。此成長由近年來最成功的業務單位所帶動，尤其來自我們的國際事業部。

On the surface, reporting four quarters in a row of a low 90s combined ratio may appear a little boring. In that regard, long made boring continue. However, under the surface, the level of change that has been implemented to set Markel back on the path of being a leading specialty insurer has been significant.

表面上看，連續四個季度呈報低90%區間的綜合比率，可能顯得有點無聊。就此而言，長期維持「無聊」請繼續。然而在水面下，為了讓Markel重回成為領先專業保險公司的軌道，我們所推動的變革幅度相當顯著。

Two simple principles sit at the core of everything we have done. First, be obsessed with our customers. But our clients at the heart of all we do and make decisions as close to them as possible. Second, create a structure that allows our business leaders to think and act like owners. These two defining principles underpin every decision that has been made over the past 18 months.

我們所做的一切都圍繞兩個簡單原則。第一，對客戶保持高度執著。把客戶置於我們所有工作的核心，並盡可能在最貼近客戶的地方做決策。第二，建立一個能讓業務領導者像所有者一樣思考與行動的架構。這兩項定義性的原則支撐了過去18個月所做的每一項決策。

The outcome of the work done so far is as follows: Markel Insurance now consist of three divisions below which at 14 business units, each with a clearly identified leader. Each business unit leader has committed to delivering a financial plan for 2026 and a strategic plan over the next five years. The reporting lines of thousands of people along with all our financial reporting and management information have been aligned to the new structure.

目前工作的成果如下：Markel Insurance現在由三個事業部組成，其下共有14個業務單位，每個單位都有明確指定的負責人。每位業務單位負責人已承諾交付2026年的財務計畫，以及未來五年的策略計畫。數千名員工的匯報關係，以及我們所有財務報告與管理資訊，均已依新架構完成對齊。

Our results have improved and become more consistent, but even more importantly, our clients now describe our new setup as being simpler to access and quicker to make decisions. The leaders of our business units relish the challenge of building great businesses that will endure over the long term. These are critical foundations, but we are now focused on the next year of progress. At the heart of that focus lies the execution of our financial and strategic plans and the investments that we are making in our operations and technology.

我們的業績已改善且更為一致；更重要的是，客戶現在形容我們的新架構更容易接觸、決策更迅速。各業務單位的領導者樂於迎接打造可長期延續的卓越企業之挑戰。這些是關鍵基礎，但我們現在聚焦於下一年的進一步進展。該聚焦的核心在於執行我們的財務與策略計畫，以及我們在營運與科技上的投資。

AI provides Markel Insurance with tools that allow us to reimagine how work gets done. We have asked all of our businesses, how we can get better products in front of our customers much faster. This involves looking at every aspect of the business process end-to-end and having AI support and augment it.

AI為Markel Insurance提供工具，使我們能重新想像工作如何完成。我們已要求所有業務思考：如何能更快把更好的產品帶到客戶面前。這需要端到端檢視業務流程的每個環節，並讓AI提供支援與增強。

So far, we see the deployment of AI show up at three levels. First, building a new strategic business unit from scratch. Back in March of this year, we partnered with Bain & Co and kicked off a project to reimagine how to underwrite and service hard to place US casualty risks with a new business model, where this model would be built with market-leading AI tools to design and built by Markel and Bain experts.

截至目前，我們看到AI的部署主要體現在三個層面。第一，從零開始打造一個新的策略性業務單位。今年3月，我們與Bain & Co合作啟動專案，重新構想如何以新的商業模式承保並服務難以承作的美國責任險風險；該模式將以市場領先的AI工具建構，由Markel與Bain的專家共同設計與打造。

We're able to combine the team's underwriting knowledge gained over a decade and the data we have amassed during that time. A new business unit named Cortex was launched within our Wholesale and Specialty division last week, just a few months after we started the process. We have moved quickly learned a lot and believe that we have created something of genuine value in an area of the market where Markel has a right to win.

我們得以結合團隊十年來累積的核保知識，以及期間所蒐集的大量資料。上週，一個名為Cortex的新業務單位已在我們的批發與專業（Wholesale and Specialty）事業部內正式啟動，距離我們開始流程僅數個月。我們推進迅速、學到很多，並相信在Markel具備勝出條件的市場領域中，我們打造了真正有價值的事物。

Second, we wire class of business using agenetic AI. Over the past 12 months, we have comprehensively required six classes of business across both our US and international operations, totaling over 500 million of existing GWP. We have partnered with harve AI have to do this. and the impact of applying agenetic AI to sophisticated specialty underwriting is significant.

第二，使用代理式AI（agentic AI）重塑各險種（class of business）。過去12個月，我們已在美國與國際營運中，全面重塑六個險種，合計涵蓋超過5億美元的既有總保費（GWP）。我們與Harvey AI合作完成此事，而將代理式AI應用於高階專業核保所帶來的影響相當顯著。

For example, the reduction in time to have an initial risk assessment in front of an underwriter has flown by between 50% and 90%, depending on the line of business and accuracy levels are above 90% in all cases. This frees underwriters to focus on decision-making, negotiation, and getting quotes out of the door. The results is higher levels of better quality business with the WI portfolio in London growing by 50% in the year since we deployed Harvey.

例如，將初步風險評估交到核保人手上的時間縮短了50%到90%不等，取決於業務線別；且在所有情況下，準確率都高於90%。這讓核保人能把重心放在決策、談判，以及更快把報價送出。其結果是更高水準、品質更佳的業務；自我們部署Harvey以來的一年內，倫敦的WI投資組合成長了50%。

Third, introducing AI agents at the business process level. Our AI accelerator fund was launched in February of this year with money made available to the best ideas stemming from the wider business. In total, we chose nine ideas, all of which were developed and put into production during the single month of April. The idea has ranged from a new engine in our Equine business that makes initial quotes available to our equine customers in seconds. To an agent that vastly increases our ability to respond to the fast-moving marine ore market.

第三，在業務流程層級導入AI代理（AI agents）。我們的AI加速器基金於今年2月成立，提供資金支持來自更廣泛組織中的最佳構想。我們總共選出九個點子，且全部都在4月單月內完成開發並投入生產環境。這些點子涵蓋範圍從我們馬術（Equine）業務中的新引擎，可在數秒內向馬術客戶提供初步報價。到一個代理，能大幅提升我們回應快速變動的海運礦石市場（marine ore market）的能力。

To the wind site tool, which analyzes the vast amount of data made available by our brokers on upcoming renewals and prioritizes the opportunities so that we can concentrate on those who are most likely to win. The accelerator fund promotes ground-up ideas in our decentralized model. We are increasingly confident in our deployment of AI and are committed to utilizing it to transform our business. However, AI is only beneficial if it improves our service to customers while generating returns on capital over time. So as the business unit leaders who determine how best to deploy the technology.

再到wind site工具，它會分析經由我們經紀人提供、關於即將到期續保的大量資料，並將機會排序，以便我們把資源集中在最有可能勝出的案件上。加速器基金在我們的去中心化模式下，促進由下而上的構想。我們對AI的部署愈來愈有信心，並致力於運用它來轉型我們的業務。然而，AI只有在能改善我們對客戶的服務，並隨時間推移產生資本報酬時，才有價值。因此，由各業務單位領導者來決定如何最佳部署這項技術。

Leadership plays its part by consistently challenging these leaders to think differently and by sharing great ideas from other parts of Markel. Not all of our technology investment is being made in AI. There are some areas where building strong and durable core infrastructure is a critical step to ensuring we can make the most of AI further down the line. Examples of this work include deploying ClaimCenter across our US operations earlier in 2026.

領導層也扮演其角色，持續挑戰這些領導者以不同方式思考，並分享來自 Markel 其他部門的絕佳想法。我們的科技投資並非全部都投入在 AI。在某些領域，打造強健且耐用的核心基礎設施，是確保我們在未來能充分發揮 AI 效益的關鍵一步。這項工作的例子包括在 2026 年稍早於我們美國營運中部署 ClaimCenter。

The investment in Policy Center is our core system for the Parcel Lines business unit and the overhaul of our data environment in our international operations over the past three years.

對 Policy Center 的投資是我們 Parcel Lines 事業單位的核心系統，以及過去三年我們在國際營運中對資料環境所進行的全面改造。

These investments in our core infrastructure provide the necessary foundation that enables future AI initiatives to enhance our overall offering and will ensure that we can scale Markel Insurance for years to come.

這些對核心基礎設施的投資提供了必要的根基，使未來的 AI 計畫得以強化我們的整體產品與服務，並確保我們能在未來多年擴大 Markel Insurance 的規模。

Overall, our underwriting results have improved and become more consistent. We are growing where we have earned the rotor win and managing the cycle where rates and terms do not support long-term profitability.

整體而言，我們的核保結果已改善，且更為穩定一致。我們在已經贏得應有勝利的領域持續成長，並在費率與條款不支持長期獲利時，妥善管理景氣循環。

I could dwell on market conditions and heightened global risk, but these factors are largely beyond our control. What remains within our control is how effectively we manage the insurance cycle and build an exceptional operation using powerful new tools that fundamentally improve the way we do business.

我可以著墨於市場狀況與升高的全球風險，但這些因素多半超出我們的控制範圍。仍在我們掌控之內的，是我們管理保險循環的成效，以及運用強大的新工具打造卓越營運，從根本上改善我們的經營方式。

Sadly, football may not be coming home this year, but maybe, just maybe, specialty insurance is. These are exciting times at Markel Insurance. And with that, I'll pass you back to Tom.

遺憾的是，今年足球可能不會「回家」，但也許、只是也許，專業保險會。這是 Markel Insurance 令人振奮的時刻。接下來我把時間交回給 Tom。

Thank you, Simon. Indeed, these are exciting times in market, and we look forward to answering your questions. Matt, if you'd be so kind as to open the floor.

謝謝你，Simon。確實，市場正處於令人振奮的時刻，我們也期待回答各位的問題。Matt，麻煩你開放提問。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

Tracy Benguigui, Wolfe Research.

Tracy Benguigui，Wolfe Research。

When the third-party actuarial team that came in to assess the counterparty credit risk shortfall at the bankrupt reinsurer, it seems like that review is limited to just one counterparty at State National or did this third party also review the adequacy of collateral behind all of your unrated reinsurance partners are backing much larger liabilities? And if you could comment on the general health of your collateral backing reinsurance counterparties.

關於那家破產再保險人之交易對手信用風險缺口，第三方精算團隊進場評估時，看起來該審查僅限於 State National 的單一交易對手；還是該第三方也檢視了你們所有未評等再保險合作夥伴背後的擔保品是否充足（尤其是其承擔更大負債者）？另外，能否評論一下你們再保險交易對手擔保品整體健康狀況？

Thank you. I appreciate the question. That specific engagement was for the specific contract where we thought we had some issues, and we wanted to nail that down. the best of our abilities. As you might imagine, we as managers do in our duty are looking at everything at the same time, but the specific third party was engaged just for that topic.

謝謝。我很感謝這個問題。那次特定委任是針對我們認為可能有問題的特定合約，我們希望在能力所及範圍內把它釐清。如你所想像，我們作為管理團隊在履行職責時，同時也會檢視所有事項，但該特定第三方僅就那個主題受聘。

Right. So can you comment about your view of the general health of collateral back in all of your reinsurance counterparties, particularly those that are not rated.

了解。那你能否談談你對所有再保險交易對手（特別是未評等者）之擔保品整體健康狀況的看法？

Yes, happy to do so. That is the core business of State National for a long time. The charts that we put up is in keeping with our philosophy of having a number up there that is more likely to be redundant the deficient that's the long-standing reserving philosophy mark out and this charge reflect that. So that applies that we have looked at everything and we're putting out our best estimate for what we think things are.

可以，很樂意說明。這一直是 State National 長期以來的核心業務。我們展示的圖表符合我們的理念：所呈現的數字更可能是冗餘而非不足，這是 Markel 長期的準備金哲學，而這些圖表也反映了這點。因此，這表示我們已檢視所有事項，並提出我們對現況的最佳估計。

This is the first loss of this nature in over 40 years of history, State National is operating in this business, and they have demonstrated the ability to handle those kinds of risks for multiple decades. We have every confidence that they're investing that on doing so and continue to believe that's the case.

在 State National 經營此業務超過 40 年的歷史中，這是首次出現此類損失，而他們已證明自己在數十年間具備處理此類風險的能力。我們完全有信心他們正投入處理，並且仍相信情況確實如此。

Okay. Looking at your reserve development, what gave you comfort to release workers' comp reserves for recent accident years and on the topic of reserves as we sit here today halfway through the year, is the conclusion of our actual versus expected analysis support your guide of favorable development up to 5% or $800 million during 2026?

好的。就你們的準備金發展而言，是什麼讓你們有信心釋放近年事故年度的勞工補償準備金？另外，談到準備金，截至今天我們已過了半年，你們實際值對比預期值（A vs E）的分析結論，是否支持你們對 2026 年有利準備金發展最高達 5% 或 8 億美元的指引？

Yes. Let me ask Brian to comment on that.

是的。我請 Brian 來回應。

Sure. Yes. Specifically on workers' comp. I mean, that has behaved very well, I think, across the industry in general. But for us, in particular, from an A versus E standpoint, we've been holding a fair amount of margin there for a while.

好的。是的。就勞工補償而言，我的意思是，整體產業表現普遍都相當良好。但對我們來說，特別是從實際值對比預期值（A vs E）的角度，我們在那裡保留了相當多的緩衝一段時間了。

We're starting to release some of that as the A versus E continues to come in and trend favorably. Kind of overall on the reserve side, what you're seeing us do is react to exactly those A versus E trends that we're seeing over multiple periods. And so our releases are concentrated in kind of first-party lines in the US, that would be our property, our line Marine and our Personal Lines E&S homeowners book, along with many lines in our international book that have performed very, very well and behaved very well from a reserving standpoint.

隨著 A vs E 持續呈現並趨勢向好，我們開始釋放其中一部分。整體就準備金面而言，你看到我們所做的，是針對我們在多個期間觀察到的 A vs E 趨勢做出反應。因此，我們的釋放主要集中在美國的一方保險線別，包括財產險、海上保險，以及我們個人險 E&S 住宅險組合；同時也包括我們國際業務中許多從準備金角度表現非常、非常好且發展非常穩健的線別。

On the casualty side, casualty and professional, that's a more a hold the line. Very modest kind of adverse development. It's kind of been trending as we would have expected on the whole and that's kind of how we've been reacting there.

在責任險方面，包含一般責任與專業責任，則比較偏向守住水位。僅有非常輕微的不利發展。整體而言，其趨勢大致符合我們的預期，我們也據此做出相應調整。

One other reminder on the casualty side, we do have a stop-loss reinsurance treaty in place for accident years 2019 and forward that impacts kind of our analysis when we set the reserving basis.

另外提醒一點，在責任險方面，我們針對 2019 事故年度及之後已設有停損再保合約，這會影響我們在設定準備金基礎時的分析。

Andrew Anderson, Jefferies.

Andrew Anderson，Jefferies。

Maybe back on the State National matter. I just want to make sure I kind of have the sequence of events correct. I think at year-end, this relationship was nearly fully collateralized in 1Q, you did increase the loss ratio of this business a little bit. At the same time, you engaged a third-party firm who subsequently, I think significantly increased this loss estimate, almost doubled it. So maybe what did the third-party actuarial firm discover that was beyond what you saw in the first quarter and why not engage the firm to review reserve adequacy across the broader State National platform?

也許回到 State National 這件事。我只是想確認我對事件順序的理解是否正確。我想在年末時，這段關係幾乎已完全擔保化；在第一季，你們把這項業務的損失率稍微上調。同時，你們聘請了第三方公司，而該公司之後似乎大幅提高了損失估計，幾乎翻倍。所以，第三方精算公司發現了哪些是你們在第一季未看到的？以及為何不聘請該公司去檢視 State National 更廣泛平台的準備金充足性？

I'm going to ask Brian to respond to that.

我請 Brian 回應。

Yes. Andrew, I think your fact pattern is generally correct. We sat at year-end, we had been increasing. We had adequate collateral. There was a small deficiency based on our actuarial view at the end of the first quarter.

好的。Andrew，我認為你描述的事實脈絡大致正確。在年末時，我們一直在提高（估計）。我們有足夠的擔保品。在第一季末，依我們的精算觀點，存在一個小幅缺口。

What we did was we went back and got more granular data on this program that we did not have available. We did our own ground-up actuarial review internally. We engaged the third party. And then we also look at our kind of insurance book of primary casualty that we have written for a long time, have a lot of credible data there. Use all of those data points to kind of analyze the claims trend on what we were seeing in that series of programs, five different programs that kind of pass through to this counterparty.

我們所做的是回頭取得更細緻的該計畫資料，這些資料先前我們無法取得。我們在內部自行從頭進行精算審視。我們也聘請了第三方。此外，我們也檢視我們長期承作的一般責任原保險組合，該部分有大量具可信度的資料。運用所有這些資料點，來分析我們在那一系列計畫中所看到的理賠趨勢——共有五個不同計畫，最終都會透過轉分保傳導到這個交易對手。

And then made a judgment based on our historical reserving philosophy to set a level that we believe is more likely redundant than deficient.

接著依據我們一貫的歷史準備金哲學做出判斷，設定一個我們相信更可能是冗餘而非不足的水位。

Okay. It just seems that this increase this quarter, it is pretty large percentage of state national surplus, which is, of course, part of the broader Markel Group, which is very well capitalized. I'm just surprised to see such a big change after 1Q. Are you able to share what type of business this was related to or what type of lines?

好的。只是看起來本季的增加，占 State National 盈餘的比例相當大；當然，State National 是資本非常充足的 Markel 集團的一部分。我只是對在第一季之後出現這麼大的變動感到意外。你們能否分享這與哪一類業務或哪一些險種有關？

Yes. It was mostly primary habitational casualty business across these programs. There was a little bit of excess casualty in there, but that was less than 10%. And concentrated in a handful of states.

是的。這些計畫中主要是自住住宅的意外險業務。其中也有一點超額意外險，但不到 10%。而且集中在少數幾個州。

Okay. And maybe on the core book, if I look at total insurance ex cat, ex PID loss ratios. It was about 60% in the first quarter and then about 63.5% in the second quarter. Maybe you could help us think about the trajectory throughout the rest of the year? And maybe what's the right run rate for the ex cat ex-PYD loss ratio?

好的。另外，關於核心業務，如果我看總保險（不含巨災、不含 PID）的損失率。第一季大約是 60%，第二季大約是 63.5%。也許你可以幫我們思考一下今年剩餘時間的走勢？以及不含巨災、不含 PYD 的損失率合理的常態水準（run rate）應該是多少？

Yes. I would say where we booked in the second quarter is kind of where we feel things are -- the main increase driver was we did increase our loss pick on our personal umbrella line here in the second quarter. When we do that, it applies to two quarters of premium. So it becomes a little bit of a larger increase in the quarter. We did that earlier when we started seeing some signs of A versus E that we may typically do later in the year. So try to get out in front of that as early as we were seeing some cracks there.

是的。我會說，我們在第二季入帳的水準大致就是我們認為目前的狀況——主要的上升驅動因素是我們在第二季提高了個人超額責任傘（personal umbrella）這條線的損失選取（loss pick）。當我們這麼做時，它會套用到兩個季度的保費。所以在該季度看起來會是比較大的增幅。我們比往年更早做了這件事，因為我們開始看到 A 相對於 E 的一些跡象，而這通常是我們可能會在年內較晚才做的。因此在看到一些裂縫時，我們就盡可能提早因應、走在前面。

Okay. And last one. Within the Financial segment on the combined ratio, it does look like accident year losses were up year over year. Is that related to the loss pick adjustment that you had just mentioned or something else within the Financial segment accident year combined ratio?

好的。最後一個問題。在金融事業群的綜合率方面，看起來事故年度損失年增。這是跟你剛提到的損失選取調整有關，還是金融事業群事故年度綜合率中其他因素造成的？

No. The underwriting piece of the financial segment is related to the collateral protection line the State National right, so that's their other business. We have seen a little bit of heightened losses there, particularly in the first quarter. Second quarter was significantly better. That is a very, very short tail line.

不是。金融事業群的核保部分與 State National 的擔保品保護（collateral protection）產品線有關，對，那是他們的其他業務。我們確實看到那裡的損失略有升高，特別是在第一季。第二季則明顯好很多。那是一條非常、非常短尾的產品線。

So we have real-time indicators -- there's not a lot of IBNR that's held there. So it's really moving on kind of actual incurred losses that are coming through from the repossession of audits.

所以我們有即時指標——那裡不會持有太多 IBNR。因此它主要是隨著實際已發生損失（incurred losses）的變動而移動，這些損失是由收回（repossession）的稽核所帶出來的。

Maxwell Fritscher, Truist.

Maxwell Fritscher，Truist。

I'm calling in from Mark Hughes. What are your observations around pricing in casualty lines. You mentioned last quarter, claims trending in the low double digits. What would you say pricing is relative to that? And then -- have you seen any incremental competition in those lines since last quarter?

我代 Mark Hughes 來提問。你們對意外險產品線的定價有什麼觀察？你們上季提到理賠趨勢在低雙位數。你會說定價相對於這個趨勢如何？另外——自上季以來，你們是否看到這些產品線出現任何額外的競爭？

I would -- thanks, Max. Well, it's Simon here. I would say in casualty, what we're seeing across the whole US casualty on average is probably claims trending in the low double-digit kind of numbers, maybe 10%, 12%, something of that nature.

我會——謝謝你，Max。我是 Simon。我會說，在意外險方面，我們看到全美意外險整體平均的理賠趨勢大概是低雙位數，可能 10%、12% 之類。

Rates on average are probably slightly below that. So there's a divergence, I think, between where the average market is getting rate maybe 9%, I'd say, and then that low double digit on the trend. So that's the average.

平均費率大概略低於那個水準。所以我認為存在一個落差：市場平均可能拿到大約 9% 的費率調升，而趨勢是低雙位數。這是平均狀況。

What we've been doing is we've been really focused on that book of business in terms of managing the cycle because those average numbers over a period of time, just don't work. I mean that's clear to us. So the key actions that we've been taking, and I've mentioned this a couple of times before, we've been reducing our line sizes across different risks where we're on.

我們一直在做的是，針對那本業務（book of business）非常專注於循環管理，因為這些平均數字長期下來就是行不通。這點對我們很清楚。因此我們採取的關鍵行動——我之前也提過幾次——是我們在不同風險上降低了我們承擔的線額（line size）。

So what was typically a $10 million line would now be more like a $5 million line, for example. So that's actually action number one. The second really important action we've been taking is to reduce our exposure to construction casualty, which has caused a significant chunk of the losses out of average, I would say, in those numbers, and we continue to focus on the areas.

例如，過去典型的 1,000 萬美元線額，現在可能更像是 500 萬美元。這其實是第一個行動。第二個非常重要的行動是降低我們在建築工程意外險（construction casualty）的曝險；我會說，那一塊在上述數字中造成了相當大一部分高於平均的損失，而我們也持續聚焦在相關領域。

The new business unit that I described earlier to focus on the hard to place US casualty risk. We feel as though we can underwrite risk in a way that is better quality than the average market in that particular area, which is the reason that we've gone after it. So we've tried to focus our attention in areas where we believe that we can get rate which is better than trend. We'll see how that plays out.

我先前提到的新業務單位，專注於難以承保（hard to place）的美國意外險風險。我們認為在那個領域，我們能以比市場平均更好的品質來核保風險，這也是我們切入的原因。因此我們把注意力放在我們相信能取得高於趨勢的費率的領域。接下來就看結果如何。

But that said, we are more in a defensive mode in that US casualty market at the moment. And we are walking away from areas which are really causing the majority of losses to our book and we've probably accelerated that in the first half of this year.

但即便如此，目前在美國意外險市場，我們更偏向防禦模式。我們正在退出那些對我們業務組合造成大部分損失的領域，而且我們可能在今年上半年加速了這個動作。

Got it. That's helpful. And then I guess switching gears to property. How do you expect rates to trend in the back half of the year? Of course, it will depend on the storm season. But as we stand here now, are you seeing carriers reach a floor and seeing rates stabilize? Or do you expect some incremental pressure there as well?

了解。這很有幫助。接著我想把話題轉到財產險。你們預期今年下半年費率趨勢會如何？當然這會取決於風暴季。但就目前來看，你們是否看到承保公司已經觸底、費率開始穩定？還是你們也預期會有一些額外的下行壓力？

Well, as you say, the first half of this year, it's been very aggressive for competition in that property segment, given that results that have been announced thus far during the year. We can see people are making a lot of profit. Some of the reason for that is we haven't had the winds blow or the fires burned just yet. So there is still competition in that sector. I think some of the more disciplined carriers have started to react by walking away because technical rate probably is being reached.

嗯，如你所說，今年上半年在財產險板塊的競爭非常激烈，考量到今年迄今已公布的業績結果。我們可以看到很多人賺了不少利潤。其中一部分原因是風還沒真正吹起來、火也還沒真正燒起來。所以那個領域仍然存在競爭。我認為一些更自律的承保公司已開始透過退出來反應，因為技術費率（technical rate）可能已經被觸及。

We're just not getting enough premium for the technical amount of risk that we're taking on. But generally, I think that the competition in the property market will continue on a downward kind of trajectory up and until we get some significant losses, which, if you look at the history of the property market, they crop up every now and then.

我們拿到的保費不足以覆蓋我們所承擔風險的技術性水準。但整體而言，我認為財產險市場的競爭會沿著下行的軌跡持續，直到出現一些重大損失；如果你看財產險市場的歷史，這種情況時不時就會發生。

I think as a long-term player. Our job is to make sure that we pick the right risk areas where we feel that we can add something, we can make money at the technical rate, walk away from those where it isn't there, and be around that when the market does start to turn and the capital is valued again to the degree that it needs to be, we'll be there to answer the bell, I guess, at that point in time. So definitely, a competitive environment for the second half but we will see how that solvency goes, as you say.

我認為作為長期參與者，我們的工作是確保挑選正確的風險領域：在我們覺得能提供一些價值、能以技術費率賺錢的地方承作；在做不到的地方就退出；並且當市場開始反轉、資本再次被賦予其應有價值時，我們會在那裡，屆時我想我們就會挺身而出、迎戰。所以，下半年肯定仍是競爭環境，但如你所說，我們也會觀察那個償付能力（solvency）的走向。

And Max, you didn't ask this particular question, but I'm going to add some color commentary. Obviously, we've been repurchasing our shares. We've noticed a lot of other companies starting to repurchase stock and return capital. And actually, that's a pretty good sign for the insurance industry.

Max，你沒有問這個問題，但我想補充一些背景說明。很明顯地，我們一直在回購自家股票。我們也注意到很多其他公司開始回購股票並回饋資本。其實，這對保險產業來說是個相當好的訊號。

We're large in the degree of discipline that we're seeing across the board is encouraging to me that the fundamentals of supply and demand would cause things to stay on the rails a little bit more than might have been the case the past insurance market cycles. This is a different set of behaviors you're observing this time around, and it's for the better.

我們看到整體的自律程度在提高，這讓我感到鼓舞：供需的基本面會讓市場運作更能維持在正軌上，相較於過去的保險市場循環可能更是如此。這次你觀察到的是一套不同的行為模式，而且是往更好的方向發展。

Understood. And then Tom, last quarter, you had called out $700 million underwriting profit as a reasonable number. And then as we sit here today, is that still achievable in your view?

了解。那麼 Tom，上季你曾提到 7 億美元的承保利潤是個合理的數字。而以我們今天的情況來看，你認為這仍然可達成嗎？

I think that it's probably a little lighter than that, but we're very encouraged by the progress so far, and I don't want to put a number on it. But more importantly, what I observe is in with Simon's leadership, with the people that I talk to, people are leaning in, we've got the Cortex business unit that we're -- is now out there and starting to write business. So again, we're a long-term company and those kinds of numbers are definitely achievable. And the organization is set on the right footing right now.

我認為可能會比那個數字稍微低一些，但我們對目前為止的進展感到非常鼓舞，我也不想把它量化成一個具體數字。但更重要的是，我觀察到在 Simon 的領導下，從我接觸的人來看，大家都更積極投入；我們的 Cortex 事業單位——現在已經在外面了，並開始承接業務。所以再說一次，我們是一家著眼長期的公司，那類數字絕對是可以達成的。而且目前組織也已經站在正確的基礎上。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cohen.

Andrew Kligerman，TD Cohen。

Thanks a lot. I was intrigued by Brian's commentary around the casualty reserve development. He said, I think, Brian, you said a lot of adverse development in casualty. And then you mentioned the stoploss. Brian, could you give a little more clarity around the accident years and any numbers would be great.

非常感謝。我對 Brian 關於意外險準備金發展（reserve development）的評論很感興趣。我想 Brian，你說的是意外險出現了不少不利發展（adverse development）。然後你又提到了停損（stoploss）。Brian，你能否更清楚說明涉及哪些事故年度（accident years），如果能提供一些數字就更好了。

And then with regard to the stop loss, could you give us a little bit of the parameters around that?

另外，關於停損，你能否提供一下該安排的大致條款參數？

Sure. Yes. So on the casualty side, you'll continue to see, I would say, very modest adverse development. It's not concentrated in any year. It's kind of sprinkled across. A versus E has been pretty much on and some lines. It's been better in some classes. It's been a little worse than others. So you got to go down another level to kind of get into kind of what we're reacting to.

當然。是的。就意外險而言，你們會持續看到我稱之為非常溫和的不利發展。它並不集中在任何特定年度。而是分散在各年度之間。A 對 E（實際值相對預期值）大致符合預期，在某些線別上也是如此。有些類別表現更好。有些則稍微差一些。所以你得再往下拆一層，才能理解我們究竟在因應什麼。

But on the whole, it's been holding up to kind of what we put up a few years ago in the US to strengthen kind of our net position. The stop-loss treaty, the way that works, there's a bunch of deductibles that apply to that. Ultimately, what happens is once we hit kind of an aggregate deductible and there's a per claim deductible, there's an amount that is now passed on to the reinsurers. That happens on a last-in first-out basis.

但整體而言，它大致仍符合我們幾年前在美國為了強化淨部位而建立的水準。停損再保合約（stop-loss treaty）的運作方式是：其中適用一系列自負額（deductibles）。最終，一旦我們達到某個累積自負額（aggregate deductible），且每一筆理賠也有單筆自負額（per claim deductible），超出部分就會轉由再保人承擔。而這是以後進先出（last-in first-out）的方式發生。

So as we sit here today, all of that amount that we're passing along in IBNR, where you incurred losses that are happening in the early part of the tail, 100% belong to us. And so those are set based on expected loss ratios when we negotiate the treaty. And then obviously, we've seen kind of since those earlier years, '19, '20, '21 have behaved across the industry worse than I think everyone anticipated that stop loss treaty has started to kick in and provide IBNR that we are seeding to the treaty.

因此以我們今天的狀況來看，我們在 IBNR（已發生但未報告）中所轉出的那部分金額——也就是在尾端早期發生的已發生損失——目前 100% 都屬於我們。而這些是在我們談判該合約時，依據預期損失率（expected loss ratios）來設定的。然後很明顯地，自那些較早年度以來，'19、'20、'21 在整個產業的表現都比我想大家原先預期的更差，因此該停損合約開始啟動，並提供我們正在分出（seeding）給該合約的 IBNR 保障。

Got it. And then outside of insurance, I was very curious around both consumer and industrial. So maybe just starting with consumer, 20% adjusted operating income growth on top of 4% revenue. And I think I read in the Q about margin enhancement. Do you think that kind of earnings growth is sustainable for the foreseeable future?

了解。那麼在保險以外的部分，我對消費與工業兩塊都很好奇。先從消費端開始，調整後營業利益成長 20%，而營收只成長 4%。我想我在 Q 裡看到你們提到利潤率提升。你認為這種獲利成長在可預見的未來是可持續的嗎？

I mean any color on on what was going on there because it was an interesting dichotomy between the operating revenue and the adjusted operating income?

能否補充一下那邊到底發生了什麼？因為營業收入與調整後營業利益之間呈現一個很有趣的反差。

Going to invite my colleague, Andrew, probably to speak to that.

我想請我的同事 Andrew 來回答這個問題。

Andrew, A lot of Andrews here. It's Andrew Crowley. I'll start with the consumer question first. I think when you see 4% on a top line and 20% on a bottom line, it wouldn't be fair to extrapolate those trends into what has driven some of the bottom line is, frankly, the strength of execution of our leaders.

Andrew，這裡有很多位 Andrew。我是 Andrew Crowley。我先回答消費端的問題。當你看到營收端 4%、獲利端 20% 時，若把這些趨勢直接外推，可能並不公平；因為推動部分獲利端表現的因素，坦白說，是我們領導團隊執行力的強勁。

As we've mentioned time and time again, we've got great leadership teams, they have an ability to focus on and drive operational efficiency within their markets during pretty good times and some of them are operating in pretty good times.

正如我們一再提到的，我們有很棒的領導團隊；他們能在景氣不錯的時候——而其中一些人確實是在相當不錯的環境中運作——專注並推動其市場內的營運效率。

In addition, there's a variety of business within the segment, some of which have a higher margin profile versus others. We've seen some outsized growth in businesses with higher margins, which is resulting in that number you see, and lastly, as we alluded to, there are some impacts from full period results. EPI was not in the first quarter in its entirety last year. And in the current quarter, we have lift from a downstream acquisition in one of our other businesses.

此外，該事業群內包含多種業務，其中一些的利潤率結構高於其他業務。我們看到部分高毛利業務出現超常成長，因而帶來你所看到的數字；最後，如我們所提到的，還有一些來自「完整期間」結果的影響。去年第一季 EPI 並非整季都納入。而在本季，我們也因為在另一項業務中進行下游收購（downstream acquisition）而有所提振。

I'll just add one other point on consumer while we're on it. a good reminder, we called it out in the Q that Q2 is particularly strong for consumer. And if you looked last year, you would see about 60% of our earnings came in that quarter alone and about 40% of the revenue. So just contextualizing this quarter versus what to expect in the coming quarters and compare to the first quarter. On the industrial side, Go ahead.

我再補充消費端一點。提醒一下，我們在 Q 裡有特別指出第二季對消費端特別強。如果你看去年，你會發現大約 60% 的獲利是在那一季單季貢獻，而大約 40% 的營收也在那一季。所以這是在把本季放在脈絡中，說明接下來幾季可能的表現，並與第一季做比較。至於工業端，請繼續。

No, that was very helpful. Yes, on the industrial side, and that's my last question. Yes, just kind of curious, it's sort of the opposite of consumer with a 27% decline in operating income versus a 2% gain in revenue. And I don't know, I'm wondering, is this the construction area? Is there a lot of pressure on margins.

不，這非常有幫助。是的，工業端也是我最後一個問題。我有點好奇，這看起來跟消費端相反：營收成長 2%，但營業利益下滑 27%。我不確定，這是建築相關領域嗎？利潤率是否承受很大壓力？

Just really curious there, Andrew, what's happening?

Andrew，我真的很好奇，那邊發生了什麼？

Yes. Thanks for that question. The good news is similar to the other point, up a bit on revenue and down a meaningful amount on profit is also a trend that we don't expect to continue. Just to highlight a couple of things within that where we have called out markets that are in cyclical decline, specifically car hauling industrial bakery equipment, you do lose a bit of operating leverage as you go down.

是的。謝謝這個問題。好消息是，跟剛才另一點類似：營收小幅上升、但利潤明顯下降，這也是我們不預期會持續的趨勢。簡單點出其中幾個因素：我們已提到有些市場正處於景氣循環下行，特別是汽車運輸（car hauling）與工業烘焙設備（industrial bakery equipment）；當規模下滑時，營運槓桿也會減弱一些。

The good news about those businesses, as Tom alluded to in his shareholder letter in 2024 and Brian in prior comments, over long periods of time, we've done well. Our competitive position remains strong, and those end markets are enduring and essential to the economy. So we feel really good about where we are. We're just working through a normal cycle.

這些業務的好消息是，正如 Tom 在 2024 年致股東信中提到的，以及 Brian 先前的評論所說，長期來看我們表現良好。我們的競爭地位依然強勁，而這些終端市場具有持久性，且對經濟至關重要。因此我們對自身所處位置感到非常有信心。我們只是正在經歷一個正常的循環。

In addition, we have a couple of businesses making SG&A investments for the long term, whether it's a branch-based business, opening up a new branch that will generate revenue over time. We continue to want to support our leaders in making those types of long-term investments that will pay off. So we're carrying a little extra cost there as well.

此外，我們有幾項業務正在為長期進行 SG&A（銷售、一般及管理費用）投資；例如分支據點型業務，開設新分點會隨時間帶來營收。我們仍希望支持領導團隊進行這類能帶來回報的長期投資。因此那邊也會承擔一些額外成本。

Drew Estes, Banyan Capital Management.

Drew Estes，Banyan Capital Management。

This is for Tom or Simon. And as you might imagine, this is with regard to State National. I have a few questions. As to the nature of the collateral shortfall, was it that the assets that were posted weren't actually there? Or were they bad assets? Or did losses develop such that the collateral required was just too little. If you could just provide any color on that, that would be great?

這題給 Tom 或 Simon。如你們所料，這是關於 State National。我有幾個問題。就擔保品不足（collateral shortfall）的性質而言，是因為所提交的資產其實並不存在？還是那些資產品質不佳？或者是損失發展導致所需擔保品變得太少、因而不足？如果你們能提供任何補充說明就太好了。

Absolutely. It's full. The collateral spoke just that the losses and those are actual estimates of the losses moved to such a rate that have got ahead of the collateral.

當然。已經滿了。擔保品方面剛剛提到，損失以及那些對損失的實際估計，變動到某個速度，已經超前於擔保品。

Okay. Next question is just aggregation risk in State National. It's I know a lot of these alternative capacity providers tend to play in the same sand boxes. So how does State National think about that and try to manage that risk for the book as a whole?

好的。下一個問題是關於 State National 的聚合風險。我知道很多這些替代性承保容量提供者往往在相同的領域裡運作。那麼 State National 如何看待這點，並嘗試為整體承保簿管理這項風險？

Yes. I mean that's the normal course of business, and that would be a factor and a thing that will be looked at and managed and thought about all the time. Oftentimes, State National is involved in a very specific kinds of risk or very specific products. And I wouldn't say there are industry-wide aggregation events that are as relevant to some of the selection they would make that would be the case sort of for the industry as a whole. But they have an over 40-year history of managing those processes and that kind of risk quite well.

是的。我的意思是，這是正常的業務運作過程，這會是一個因素，也是會一直被檢視、管理並持續思考的事情。很多時候，State National 參與的是非常特定類型的風險或非常特定的產品。我不會說存在那種在全產業層面上的聚合事件，對他們所做的一些選擇而言有同樣的相關性，就像對整個產業那樣。但他們有超過 40 年的歷史，在管理這些流程與這類風險方面做得相當好。

State National has been a great investment for us, a great contributor. We paid roughly $900 million for that back in 2017, even including the events of this last quarter, earnings since that time, cumulatively over $1 billion. They are disciplined first-class operators in what they do and managing aggregates is just a daily business for their operations. Andrew might have one thing to add.

State National 對我們而言一直是一項很棒的投資，也是很大的貢獻者。我們在 2017 年大約以 9 億美元買下它；即使包含上一季的事件，自那之後的累計盈餘也超過 10 億美元。他們在所做的事情上是自律的一流操作者，而管理聚合風險對他們的營運而言就是日常工作。Andrew 可能還有一點補充。

Drew, just adding one thing. It's Andrew Crowley, when we think about aggregation, I think you do want to look at it in two ways, one of which is the programs that are originating together, which is the reinsurers. And I can confirm that we do look at both. And in fact, as a result of the work we've been doing, it will result in some collateral top-ups for similar lines of business with other reinsurers who are in financially healthy positions, but we will have collateral increases as a result.

Drew，我補充一點。我是 Andrew Crowley。當我們思考聚合時，我認為你確實要從兩個面向來看，其中之一是一起發起這些計畫的對象，也就是再保險人。我可以確認我們兩者都會看。事實上，基於我們正在進行的工作，對於與其他再保險人在相似業務線上的安排，將會需要一些擔保品補提（top-ups）；這些再保險人的財務狀況健康，但我們仍會因此要求提高擔保品。

Okay. That's good to hear. And just final question. Since A lot of these fronting insurers are pretty thinly capitalized because they see the risk. I'm curious if this loss will impair State National's ability to do business.

好的。很高興聽到。最後一個問題。由於很多這些前端承保（fronting）保險公司資本相當薄，因為他們承接風險。我想知道這次損失是否會損害 State National 的業務承作能力。

And it's under what conditions would the parent provide support.

以及在什麼條件下母公司會提供支持。

State National is part of the family and it is well capitalized and continues to be so. We move capital around between different subsidiaries on a regular basis, this normal course of business. So State National is in good shape and will continue to be set from a capital on view.

State National 是我們集團的一部分，資本充足，而且仍將維持如此。我們會在不同子公司之間定期調度資本，這是正常的業務運作。因此 State National 的狀況良好，從資本角度來看也會持續如此。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

Mark Hughes, Truist.

Mark Hughes，Truist。

Just on State National, I'm just sort of curious what you see in terms of new business opportunities with State National and what might say about just broader capacity flows within the P&C space? And then I think related to that ongoing discussion, what do you see in terms of, I guess, terms and conditions, capacity providers being eager for risk sharing that sort of thing? Just how much demand? And then what are the -- what's the competitive environment and the ask on the part of potential partners?

關於 State National，我有點好奇你們看到哪些新的業務機會，以及這可能反映出產險（P&C）領域更廣泛的承保容量流向？然後我想延續剛才的討論，你們看到在條款與條件方面，容量提供者是否更積極尋求風險分攤之類的安排？需求到底有多大？另外，潛在合作夥伴所面對的競爭環境，以及他們提出的要求是什麼？

I can't really speak to what others are going to do in industry-wide comments. I can State National operations that has and will continue to operate with discipline and professionalism and doing their homework and making sure things are buttoned up. And as Simon alluded to earlier, we care about the bottom line more than the top line. They'll continue to operate with that focus as does the rest of Markel. But I can't really speak for the rest of the industry.

我無法就整個產業做出業界層面的評論，去談別人會怎麼做。我能談的是 State National 的營運：他們一直以來、也將持續以紀律與專業來運作，做好功課並確保各項事項都完善到位。正如 Simon 先前提到的，我們更在意的是底線而不是營收規模。他們會持續以這個重點運作，Markel 其他業務也是如此。但我確實無法代表整個產業發言。

Yes, I hear you definitely. How about the -- just the flow of business or opportunities? Any kind of reflections on capacity, looking at it through the State National wins?

是的，我完全理解。那關於——業務流入或機會的流向呢？從 State National 的角度來看承保容量，有沒有什麼觀察或想法？

Andrew, has a thought.

Andrew 有一些想法。

Yes. I would put it in the camp of normal course ins and outs. So there are times where programs will naturally sunset and move on, and there's times where new opportunities arise. I wouldn't put the trajectory as unusually up or down in that regard.

是的。我會把它歸類為正常的進進出出。所以有些時候，某些計畫會自然到期並往前走；也有些時候，新的機會會出現。就這點而言，我不會說趨勢有異常地上升或下降。

And in fact, if you just go back over a 5-year time horizon, you would see modest growth in State National and some publications would point to industry growth well above that, which is a reflection of State National continuing to pick it spots where its terms and conditions can be met and let them go spots where it's best suited for another party.

事實上，如果你回頭看 5 年的時間跨度，你會看到 State National 有溫和的成長；而一些出版物可能會指出產業成長遠高於此，這反映了 State National 持續挑選那些能滿足其條款與條件的領域，同時也會放棄那些更適合由其他方承作的領域。

And I do want to pick up on that because I think that speaks to the beauty and the design of the Markel Group system rip large, every single business that's part of this system, as part of the Markel Group family operates with a good balance sheet and a long-term time horizon and the ability to make good long-term decisions and not be under unusual short-term overly pressure is really one of the keys and one of the factors that has allowed the double-digit compounding relentless compounding that's been going on around here for decades.

我也想接著這點說，因為我認為這正好體現了 Markel Group 系統的美妙之處與設計理念（放大來看）。這個系統中的每一個業務、每一個屬於 Markel Group 家族的企業，都以良好的資產負債表、長期的時間視野來運作，並且能做出良好的長期決策，而不會承受不尋常的短期過度壓力；這確實是關鍵之一，也是促成數十年來持續不懈的兩位數複利成長的因素之一。

So obviously, see National is front and center, and it's in everybody's mind right now. But this is the sort of thing that we can absorb, learn from, improve and the Markel Group system and all the individual operating businesses out there are not overreacting. They're making the good long-term decisions and as a result, it's a pretty powerful map over a long period of time, and we fully expect that to continue.

所以很明顯，State National 現在是焦點，也在每個人的腦海中。但這類事情我們可以吸收、從中學習並加以改進，而 Markel Group 系統以及所有個別營運事業都不會過度反應。他們會做出良好的長期決策，因此長期來看這是一個相當強大的模式，我們完全預期這會持續下去。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Tom Gayner for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給 Tom Gayner，請他做結語。

Thanks so much for joining us. I appreciate your interest and support, and we look forward to connecting with you again soon. Thank you.

非常感謝各位加入我們。感謝各位的關注與支持，我們期待很快能再次與各位交流。謝謝。

The conference call has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

電話會議現在結束。感謝各位參加今天的簡報。您現在可以掛線。