Markel Group Inc (MKL) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Markel Group first quarter 2025 conference call. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加 Markel Group 2025 年第一季電話會議。（操作員指示）

During the call today, we may make forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. They are based on current assumptions and opinions concerning a variety of known and unknown risks. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or suggested by such forward-looking statements.

在今天的電話會議中，我們可能會根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》做出前瞻性陳述。它們基於有關各種已知和未知風險的當前假設和意見。實際結果可能與此類前瞻性陳述所包含或暗示的結果有重大差異。

Additional information about factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements is included in the press release for our first quarter 2025 results as well as our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report form on 10-Q including other captions, safe harbor and cautionary statements and Risk Factors.

有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中預測的結果有重大差異的因素的其他資訊包含在我們 2025 年第一季業績新聞稿以及我們最近的 10-K 表年度報告和 10-Q 表季度報告中，包括其他標題、安全港和警示聲明以及風險因素。

We may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures during the call today. You may find the most directly comparable GAAP measures and a reconciliation to GAAP for these measures in the press release for our first quarter 2025 results or in our most recent Form 10-Q.

我們也可能在今天的電話會議中討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們 2025 年第一季業績新聞稿或最新的 10-Q 表中找到最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標以及這些指標與 GAAP 的對帳。

The press release for our first quarter 2025 results as well as our Form 10-K and Form 10-Q can be found on our website at www.mklgroup.com in the Investor Relations section. Please note today's event is being recorded.

我們的 2025 年第一季業績新聞稿以及 10-K 表和 10-Q 表可在我們的網站 www.mklgroup.com 的「投資者關係」部分找到。請注意，今天的活動正在記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Tom Gayner, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給執行長湯姆蓋納 (Tom Gayner)。請繼續。

Good morning. Thank you, Jeanine. This is indeed Tom Gayner, your CEO. I welcome you to our Markel Group first quarter earnings call. Joining me on the call this morning is Brian Costanzo, our CFO; and Simon Wilson, our new CEO of Markel Insurance.

早安.謝謝你，珍妮。這確實是你們的執行長湯姆蓋納 (Tom Gayner)。歡迎您參加 Markel Group 第一季財報電話會議。今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的財務長 Brian Costanzo；以及我們 Markel Insurance 的新任執行長 Simon Wilson。

At Markel Group, we aspire to be the best home in the world for our businesses. Markel Group is a diverse and resilient family of businesses with our insurance business at its core. Working together, the system -- we're always happy to report a good quarter, longer time horizons matter more. our normal 5-year measurement display the relentless compounding of our aspirations. In the first quarter, we also took a few significant notable organizational steps of progress on our [forever foot race]. Specifically, we elevated Simon Wilson to be the new leader of our Markel Insurance business.

在 Markel Group，我們立志成為全球最佳的企業之家。Markel Group 是一家多元化且富有韌性的企業集團，其保險業務是其核心。透過系統協作－我們總是樂於報告一個好的季度，更長的時間範圍更重要。我們正常的 5 年測量顯示了我們願望的不斷複合。在第一季度，我們也採取了一些重要的、值得注意的組織措施，以取得進展。[永遠的賽跑]。具體來說，我們提拔西蒙·威爾遜 (Simon Wilson) 為 Markel 保險業務的新領導者。

Simon is a proven leader and winner. He has a clear strategic vision for solidifying and growing Markel's market-leading presence in specialty insurance, all while putting the customer first. We're excited for you to get to know him and to hear more about his vision and plan. Under Simon's leadership, our insurance business will continue its path of simplification and growth. We're reducing complexity, making it easier for customers to do business with us, all while improving the accountability and increasing our operating efficiency. The reunderwriting of the last two years has created a stronger foundation from which these operational enhancements will build. Under Simon's leadership, I'm confident we can become even easier to do business with and win market share.

西蒙是一位公認的領導者和勝利者。他擁有清晰的策略願景，致力於鞏固和擴大 Markel 在專業保險領域的市場領先地位，同時將客戶放在第一位。我們很高興您能認識他並了解更多關於他的願景和計劃。在西蒙的領導下，我們的保險業務將繼續走簡化和成長的道路。我們正在降低複雜性，使客戶更容易與我們開展業務，同時提高責任感並提高我們的營運效率。過去兩年的重新核保為這些營運改善奠定了更堅實的基礎。我相信，在西蒙的領導下，我們可以更容易開展業務並贏得市場份額。

We see great potential over the years ahead to significantly improve from what's already a strong base of performance. While that work is in its early innings and (technical difficulties) --

我們看到，未來幾年，在現有強勁業績基礎上，我們將有巨大的潛力實現顯著提升。雖然這項工作還處於初期階段，（技術困難）——

Ladies and gentlemen, this is the operator. Please stand by. Thank you. Hello, ladies and gentlemen, the call will begin shortly. We experienced technical difficulties. Please continue standing by.

女士們、先生們，我是接線生。請稍候。謝謝。女士們、先生們，大家好，會議即將開始。我們遇到了技術困難。請繼續等候。

Yes. Good morning. Sorry, Tom Gayner. I apologize for the technical difficulties we had. I understand that the call dropped off where I mentioned that we were in the early innings and will take time. We are indeed on the path to better. Apparently for the call as well. Further, Simon's appointment and the changes we're making to the insurance business show that while our Board continues to make progress on its review of Markel Group, we are not waiting to make changes where we see they're needed. In terms of the board-led review, it continues a pace, but we won't have any further update on that today.

是的。早安.抱歉，湯姆蓋納。對於我們遇到的技術困難，我深表歉意。我知道當我提到我們正處於早期階段並且需要時間時通話就中斷了。我們確實正在走向更好的道路。顯然也是為了打電話。此外，西蒙的任命以及我們對保險業務所做的改變表明，雖然我們的董事會在對馬克爾集團的審查中繼續取得進展，但我們不會等待在需要的地方做出改變。就董事會主導的審查而言，它仍在繼續進行，但今天我們不會對此進行進一步的更新。

Stepping back, we enjoy some distinct advantages with our Markel Group system. Markel Group enjoys resilient and robust operating income, comprising recurring investment income of dividends and interest, underwriting profits and operating profits from our Ventures businesses. Further, this operating profit converts well into a river of operating cash flows, given our modest capital expenditures and the negative working capital from our insurance operations. In the full year 2024, that river of operating cash flow amounted to $2.6 billion. In the first quarter, it was $376 million. Our Markel Group architecture allows a 360-degree view of capital allocation opportunities to reinvest that cash, all in a cost and tax efficient way.

回顧一下，我們的 Markel Group 系統享有一些獨特的優勢。Markel Group 擁有強勁且穩健的營業收入，包括股息和利息的經常性投資收入、承保利潤以及來自創投業務的營業利潤。此外，考慮到我們適度的資本支出和保險業務的負營運資本，這項營業利潤可以很好地轉化為營業現金流。2024 年全年，該營運現金流達 26 億美元。第一季為3.76億美元。我們的 Markel Group 架構允許 360 度查看資本配置機會，以便以成本和稅收高效的方式重新投資現金。

For the full year 2024, we invested $208 million in acquisitions, $394 million in net equity purchases, $573 million in repurchasing our shares and $204 million of interest costs and $255 million of CapEx. In the first quarter of 2025, we invested zero in acquisitions, $57 million in net equity purchases, $170 million in repurchasing our shares and $52 million in interest costs and $41 million in CapEx. We believe we're deploying that capital into places where we can earn double-digit returns over time. We've consistently delivered on that goal, and we expect to do so going forward as well. Part of it allows -- to do so is our unique cost and tax advantage structure that's positioned to redeploy capital with low friction -- we can make favorable capital allocation decisions. All of this amounts to a relentless compounding machine.

2024 年全年，我們投資了 2.08 億美元用於收購，3.94 億美元用於淨股權購買，5.73 億美元用於回購我們的股票，2.04 億美元的利息成本和 2.55 億美元的資本支出。2025 年第一季度，我們在收購上的投資為零，淨股權購買投資為 5,700 萬美元，回購股票投資為 1.7 億美元，利息成本為 5,200 萬美元，資本支出為 4,100 萬美元。我們相信，我們將這些資本投入到能夠隨著時間的推移獲得兩位數回報的地方。我們一直在努力實現這一目標，並且希望未來也能如此。其中一部分是我們獨特的成本和稅收優勢結構，能夠以低摩擦的方式重新部署資本——我們可以做出有利的資本配置決策。所有這些都構成了一台無情的複利機器。

It seems like there's a news headline out almost daily these days talking about other companies like Brookfield, KKR, Pershing Square and others, trying to create permanent capital vehicles. I'm proud to say we have one, and we've been at it, building such a virtuous operating model and system with your partnership since our IPO in 1986.

最近幾乎每天都有新聞標題談論 Brookfield、KKR、Pershing Square 等其他公司試圖創建永久性資本工具。我很自豪地說我們有一個這樣的體系，而且自 1986 年首次公開募股以來，我們一直在努力建立這樣一個良性的營運模式和體系。

People often ask me about market developments and specifically in periods like what we experienced in April, to which I reply, I don't have a crystal ball, no one knows what will happen in the short term, but the beauty of our system is how it's built for safety and resiliency. Fall weather. It's built with the idea that we can't and don't know. We've never known with precision what the future holds, but our record indicates that our system flourishes even without perfect foresight. History doesn't repeat as they say, but it rhymes. There's nothing new under the sun. We manage our balance sheet and business to withstand stress. We have not relied on financial leverage to drive our equity returns. In times of low interest rates, that has made it difficult to keep up with many who do. But in a period of deleveraging, if that is, in fact, where we're in now, while it proved painful for the economy broadly, our model will stand ready to capitalize on its competitive advantages. We will continue serving customers come what may, and I think our conservative and low leverage approach will serve us very well in the period to come.

人們經常問我有關市場發展的情況，特別是像我們在四月份經歷的時期，對此我回答說，我沒有水晶球，沒有人知道短期內會發生什麼，但我們系統的美妙之處在於它是如何為安全性和彈性而構建的。秋天的天氣。它的建立是基於「我們不能知道，也不知道」這個理念。我們從未確切地知道未來會發生什麼，但我們的記錄表明，即使沒有完美的預見，我們的系統也能蓬勃發展。正如人們所說，歷史不會重演，但總是押韻。太陽底下並無新鮮事。我們管理資產負債表和業務以承受壓力。我們並沒有依賴財務槓桿來推動我們的股權回報。在低利率時期，這使得跟上許多人的步伐變得困難。但在去槓桿時期，如果事實上我們現在正處於去槓桿時期，儘管這對整個經濟來說是痛苦的，但我們的模式將隨時準備好利用其競爭優勢。無論發生什麼，我們都將繼續為客戶服務，我認為我們保守和低槓桿的方法將在未來一段時間內為我們提供良好的服務。

This morning, I'd also like to extend a warm welcome to John Michael, who recently joined our Board of Directors. John joined RLI, a specialty insurer we know quite well at Markel in 1982. He was the President and CEO of RLI for 20 years from 2001 through 2021. RLI is one of the longest duration holdings in our stock portfolio. We have owned it for over 3 decades over which time the business generated tremendous shareholder value. There is much we can all learn from John, and we are excited for the chance to do so.

今天上午，我也要向最近加入我們董事會的約翰‧麥可表示熱烈的歡迎。約翰於 1982 年加入了 RLI，這是一家我們在 Markel 非常熟悉的專業保險公司。從 2001 年到 2021 年，他擔任 RLI 總裁兼執行長達 20 年。RLI 是我們股票投資組合中持倉時間最長的股票之一。我們擁有該公司已有 30 多年，在此期間，該公司的業務創造了巨大的股東價值。我們可以從約翰身上學到很多東西，我們很高興有機會這樣做。

John's arrival also coincided with the conclusion of Tony Markel's over 6 decades of contributions to the company that bears his name. We look forward to properly celebrating Tony later this month at our annual meeting, which we now call the Reunion on May 21 in Richmond.

約翰的到來也恰逢托尼馬克爾為以他的名字命名的公司貢獻 60 多年的結束。我們期待在本月稍後的年度會議上正式慶祝托尼，我們現在稱之為 5 月 21 日在里士滿舉行的聚會。

Tony is a lion of the industry and for this company. His paw prints are all over the Markel Group, and this will continue to be the case for generations to come. Upon his retirement from the board, Tony will continue to serve as Chairman Emeritus, marking his outsized contributions to your company. The only other person to be given such an honor, the late Alan Kirshner, that should tell you what Tony means to us. Thank you, Tony.

托尼是這個行業和這家公司的領導者。他的足跡遍布馬克爾集團，而這種足跡也將繼續遍布後代。托尼從董事會退休後，將繼續擔任名譽董事長，以彰顯他對貴公司的巨大貢獻。唯一獲得此項榮譽的另一位人士是已故的艾倫·基什納 (Alan Kirshner)，他應該能告訴你托尼對我們意味著什麼。謝謝你，托尼。

Finally, before I turn things over to Brian, in the Q&A, we'll focus on our operating results for the last quarter. I would kindly ask that you keep your questions today focused on those results. We also look forward to being with many of you in Omaha and/or Richmond for our Reunion on May 21. In Omaha, we intend to share more with you about how we seek to relentlessly compound your capital for the generations to come. We will also take your questions. If you haven't signed up for our Reunion, I encourage you to join us and sign up at mklreunion.com. We're excited to welcome over 2,000 shareholders from around the world to our home in Richmond. The Reunion for us is our Markel style on display and the chance for you to feel what our home is like.

最後，在我將問題交給 Brian 之前，在問答環節中，我們將重點討論上個季度的經營業績。我懇請您今天的問題集中在這些結果上。我們也期待 5 月 21 日與你們在奧馬哈和/或里士滿相聚。在奧馬哈，我們打算與你們分享更多關於我們如何為子孫後代不懈努力地增加你們的資本的資訊。我們也會回答您的問題。如果您還沒有報名參加我們的股東大會，我鼓勵您加入我們，並在 mklreunion.com 上報名。我們非常高興地歡迎來自世界各地的 2,000 多名股東來到我們位於里士滿的總部。對我們來說，團聚是展示我們的 Markel 風格並讓您感受到我們的家的機會。

With that, I will now turn it over to Brian who will walk you through our results for the quarter. After you hear from Brian, Simon Wilson, the new leader of our insurance business, will introduce his vision for that business and the work that lies ahead. Then we will open the floor for your questions. Thank you.

現在，我將把時間交給 Brian，他將向您介紹我們本季的業績。在您聽完 Brian 的演講後，我們保險業務的新領導人 Simon Wilson 將介紹他對該業務的願景以及未來的工作。然後我們將開始回答大家的提問。謝謝。

Brian?

布賴恩？

Thank you, Tom. Good morning, everyone. At the start of 2024, we began reporting Markel Group operating income for investments, ventures, insurance and on a consolidated basis. Operating income is a key driver of intrinsic value and our long-term incentives. If you must pick one metric for our scorecard. Operating income is the best gains on the equity portfolio, which flows through GAAP revenue and operating income distorting any signal within quarterly year-over-year comparisons.

謝謝你，湯姆。大家早安。從 2024 年初開始，我們開始報告 Markel Group 的投資、創投、保險和合併營業收入。營業收入是內在價值和長期激勵的關鍵驅動因素。如果您必須為我們的記分卡選擇一個指標。營業收入是股票投資組合的最佳收益，它透過 GAAP 收入和營業收入扭曲季度同比比較中的任何訊號。

First, within insurance, our largest operating business, we locally empowered great leaders to serve customers in the markets that they know best all while focusing on the long term with the help of our strong balance sheet. Insurance operating income was $145 million for the first quarter of 2025 versus $136 million in the same period one year ago. The slight improvement year-over-year was driven by more favorable prior year loss development and $31 million of income related to our minority investment in Velocity, a former subsidiary of Nephila. These were largely offset by an increase in catastrophe losses.

首先，在我們最大的營運業務—保險領域，我們授權本地優秀領導者為他們最了解的市場中的客戶提供服務，同時藉助我們強大的資產負債表著眼於長期發展。2025 年第一季保險營業收入為 1.45 億美元，去年同期為 1.36 億美元。與去年同期相比略有改善，這得益於上年虧損情況的改善，以及與我們對 Nephila 前子公司 Velocity 的少數股權投資相關的 3,100 萬美元收入。這些損失在很大程度上被災難損失的增加所抵消。

In Ventures, our operating businesses are autonomous and accountable. We use equity capital to acquire our family of businesses while promoting a long-term focus and our shared set of values. We see companies with lasting competitive advantages that provide strong, steady returns on capital across economic cycles. Within certain of our businesses, cycles will and do occur, we price that into our underwriting.

在 Ventures，我們的營運業務是自主且負責的。我們利用股權資本收購我們的企業家族，同時提倡長期關注和共同的價值觀。我們看到具有持久競爭優勢的公司能夠在整個經濟週期中提供強勁、穩定的資本回報。在我們的某些業務中，週期將會發生，並且確實會發生，我們將其計入承保範圍。

Although we didn't complete any new acquisitions during the first quarter of 2025, we began consolidating EPI this quarter upon attaining the required regulatory approval following our September 2024 investment in this business.

儘管我們在 2025 年第一季沒有完成任何新的收購，但在 2024 年 9 月對該業務進行投資後，我們在獲得所需的監管部門批准後，於本季度開始合併 EPI。

Ventures revenues were $1.1 billion in both the current and prior year quarters for a decline of around 1% year over year. Our consumer and building products businesses and an expectation businesses saw a deceleration in end market conditions. We saw improvement year-over-year in demand in our equipment manufacturing businesses. Recent acquisitions of Valor and EPI contributed $28 million in revenue in the most recent quarter with no contribution in the same quarter one year ago. Ventures operating income was $103 million in the first quarter of 2025 and $104 million in the same period last year or down 1% year-over-year.

本季和去年同期的創投收入均為 11 億美元，年減約 1%。我們的消費品和建築產品業務以及預期業務的終端市場狀況有所放緩。我們看到設備製造業務的需求年增。最近收購的 Valor 和 EPI 在最近一個季度貢獻了 2,800 萬美元的收入，而去年同期則沒有貢獻。2025 年第一季度，創投營業收入為 1.03 億美元，去年同期為 1.04 億美元，年減 1%。

Turning over to our investments. Through our public equity portfolio, we own interest in many of the best businesses in the world. We seek out profitable businesses with good returns on capital -- float of our insurance operations into highly rated fixed income securities while seeking to minimize credit, currency and interest rate risk across our asset liability profile. Investments operating income was $82 million for the first quarter of 2025 and $1.1 billion in the same period 1 year ago. Our equity portfolio declined 1% in the first quarter with $147 million in mark-to-market losses, which are included in our 2025 operating income versus $907 million in gains in the comparable quarter last year. Over the long term, our public equity portfolio has created excellent return a cumulative unrealized gain of $7.8 billion. We continue to take advantage of our low cost and tax efficient structure long-term lens and incoming cash flows to compound capital in our public equity portfolio. Net investment income was $236 million in Q1 2025 versus $217 million in Q1 2024. For Q1 2025, our fixed income book yield was 3.5%. During the first quarter, we added new fixed income investments at higher yields, approximating 4.4% versus maturing bonds at approximately 3.6%. 98% of our bonds portfolio was held in fixed income securities that are rated AA or better.

轉向我們的投資。透過我們的公開股權投資組合，我們擁有世界上許多最佳企業的權益。我們尋求具有良好資本回報率的獲利業務—將我們的保險業務轉移到高評級的固定收益證券中，同時尋求在我們的資產負債狀況中盡量減少信貸、貨幣和利率風險。2025 年第一季投資營業收入為 8,200 萬美元，去年同期為 11 億美元。我們股票投資組合在第一季下跌了 1%，以市價計算的損失為 1.47 億美元，這筆損失計入了我們的 2025 年營業收入，而去年同期的收益為 9.07 億美元。長期來看，我們的公開股票投資組合創造了優異的回報，累計未實現收益達78億美元。我們繼續利用我們的低成本和稅收效率結構、長期視角和流入的現金流來複合我們公共股權投資組合中的資本。2025 年第一季淨投資收入為 2.36 億美元，而 2024 年第一季為 2.17 億美元。2025 年第一季度，我們的固定收益帳面收益率為 3.5%。在第一季度，我們增加了收益率較高的固定收益投資，收益率約為 4.4%，而到期債券的收益率約為 3.6%。我們債券投資組合的 98% 為 AA 或更高評級的固定收益證券。

Moving now to a little more detail on our underwriting operations, our largest operating business. In the first quarter of 2025, underwriting gross written premiums were up 3% to the prior year, driven by strong growth in US personal lines, specifically our E&S homeowners and Hagerty lines and more modest growth within our US programs and international general liability and professional liability lines and our reinsurance workers' compensation line. US professional lines are down as expected due to the product transition within our US risk managed portfolio. Our more modest gross written premium growth this quarter reflects the combination of achieving growth within the majority of our portfolio while remaining balanced with selective deployment of capital in certain US lines where profitability is more challenged. Earned premium was down 2% in the quarter. We're running a little ahead of plan given we expected to decline in earned premium from our underwriting actions taken last year. We expect the impact of these re-underwriting actions on our earned premiums to soften throughout the year. The overall combined ratio was 95.8% versus 95.2% in the same quarter one year ago. This quarter included roughly $81 million or just under 4 points of impact from the California wildfires, including both losses and reinstatement premiums. That resulted in an x-catastrophe combined ratio of 92%, which is 3 points better than a year ago. The level of losses we incurred from the California wildfires is a testament to the underwriting actions taken over the past few years to manage our exposure to such events. An industry loss of this size a few years ago would have produced a larger impact on our first quarter underwriting results. Our current accident year loss ratio was 67.2% in the first quarter of 2025 and 64.1% if you exclude the impact from wildfire losses, which is consistent with the same period one year ago. Prior year loss development was 7.2% favorable in 2025 versus 3.6% in the comparable period. The expense ratio was 35.8% in 2024 versus 34.7% in the comparable period. That's up a point from the same period one year ago but it's also a point better sequentially versus Q4 2024 and from our plan as we made some progress on efficiency initiatives which were offset by negative operating leverage from the slight decline in earned premiums.

現在來更詳細地介紹我們的核保業務，也就是我們最大的營運業務。2025 年第一季度，承保毛保費較上年增長 3%，這得益於美國個人險業務的強勁增長，特別是我們的 E&S 房主險和 Hagerty 險業務，以及美國計劃、國際一般責任險和專業責任險以及再保險工人賠償險業務的溫和增長。由於我們美國創投投資組合中的產品轉型，美國專業險種的下降符合預期。本季我們的總承保保費成長較為溫和，反映了我們大部分投資組合實現成長的同時，對獲利能力面臨更大挑戰的某些美國業務選擇性地部署資本保持平衡。本季已賺保費下降了 2%。由於我們預計去年承保行動所賺取的保費將會下降，因此我們的進度略微提前於計劃。我們預計這些重新核保行動對我們全年已賺取保費的影響將會減弱。整體綜合比率為 95.8%，去年同期為 95.2%。本季度，加州野火造成的損失約為 8,100 萬美元，即略低於 4 點，其中包括損失和恢復保費。這使得 x-catastrophe 綜合比率達到 92%，比一年前提高了 3 個百分點。加州野火對我們造成的損失程度證明了過去幾年來我們為管理此類事件風險而採取的承保行動。幾年前這種規模的行業損失會對我們第一季的承保業績產生更大的影響。2025 年第一季度，我們目前的事故年度損失率為 67.2%，如果排除野火損失的影響，則為 64.1%，這與去年同期一致。2025 年，上年虧損發展動能良好，為 7.2%，而同期虧損為 3.6%。2024 年費用率為 35.8%，而同期費用率為 34.7%。這比去年同期上升了一個點，但與 2024 年第四季度和我們的計劃相比，也比上一季度有所提高，因為我們在效率舉措方面取得了一些進展，但這些進展被已賺保費略有下降導致的負經營槓桿所抵消。

Our exit collateral protection insurance product line or CPI, added $16 million or 1 point to the consolidated combined ratio in the first quarter of 2025. As we noted on the previous earnings calls, we still expect CPI losses to decrease in 2025 versus 2024. As a reminder, we took numerous corrective underwriting actions starting early in 2024. We exited several product lines, including primary casualty retail, business owners policy, risk-managed excess construction, risk-managed architects and engineers and collateral protection insurance. Second, across our portfolio, we meaningfully reduced the construction mix in our casualty portfolio. We changed the terms and conditions to eliminate exposures to subcontractors, reduced limits on excess lines and implemented premium caps in challenging states, achieved double-digit rate increases across the casualty portfolio and walked away from risks that were not adequately priced.

我們的退出抵押品保護保險產品線或 CPI 在 2025 年第一季為合併綜合比率增加了 1,600 萬美元或 1 個百分點。正如我們在先前的收益電話會議上所指出的，我們仍然預計 2025 年的 CPI 損失將比 2024 年有所下降。提醒一下，我們從 2024 年初開始採取了許多糾正核保措施。我們退出了多條產品線，包括主要傷亡零售、企業主保險、風險管理超額建設、風險管理建築師和工程師以及抵押品保護保險。其次，在我們的投資組合中，我們大幅減少了傷亡投資組合中的建築組合。我們改變了條款和條件，以消除對分包商的風險敞口，降低超額線的限制，並在具有挑戰性的州實施保費上限，在整個意外險組合中實現了兩位數的費率增長，並放棄了那些定價不充分的風險。

Third, and our most challenged class US public D&O. We moved to a single access point for public D&O and large financial institutions coverage based out of our Bermuda platform. These collective actions comprised a reduction of $350 million in 2024 gross written premium, but were accretive to our 2024 combined ratio results. As we noted in the Q4 '24 call, they will be further accretive to our 2025 results, but we'll also continue to put pressure on top line premiums, which in the first quarter of 2025, reflected a reduction to the $33 million in premiums related to these exited lives.

第三，也是我們面臨的最具挑戰性的美國公共 D&O 類問題。我們已將公共 D&O 和大型金融機構覆蓋範圍從百慕達平台轉移到單一存取點。這些集體行動導致 2024 年毛承保保費減少 3.5 億美元，但卻增加了我們 2024 年的綜合成本率結果。正如我們在 2024 年第四季度電話會議上所指出的那樣，這些退出生命的人將進一步增加我們 2025 年的業績，但我們也將繼續對頂線保費施加壓力，在 2025 年第一季度，與這些退出生命相關的保費減少了 3300 萬美元。

Finally, we continue to hold reserves at a level that we believe is more likely redundant than deficient, shoring up pockets of adverse development trend over the past few years. We expect our reserving philosophy to produce prior year loss takedowns in future periods. We expect all our actions to drive an improved attritional combined ratio in 2025 and continued improvement into 2026.

最後，我們繼續將儲備維持在我們認為更可能是過剩而非不足的水平，以支撐過去幾年不利的發展趨勢。我們預計，我們的準備金理念將在未來期間減少前一年的損失。我們預計，我們所有的行動將推動 2025 年綜合損耗率的改善，並在 2026 年繼續改善。

Our reinsurance operations showed modest improvement this quarter with a combined ratio of 90.8% and prior year favorable development of 5 points in the quarter. We remain prudent in our reserving and continue to increase the levels of margin in our current accident year loss picks in reinsurance.

本季度，我們的再保險業務略有改善，綜合成本率為 90.8%，比去年同期成長 5 個百分點。我們在準備金方面保持謹慎，並繼續提高目前事故年度再保險損失選擇的保證金水準。

With that, I will turn it over to Simon, the new Head of our insurance business.

說完這些，我將把權力移交給我們保險業務的新主管西蒙。

Thank you, Brian, and hello, everyone. Thank you for this opportunity to introduce myself and share with you a brief word about my vision for Markel Group's Cornerstone insurance business. First up, I want to say that I'm a person who likes to keep things simple. The organization that I'm responsible for sells a variety of specialty insurance products across the world. No more, no less. Over many years, Markel has shown that it's been able to do more than hold its own in this competitive market. The key observation that I would make about Markel Insurance is that we really are an amalgamation of many teams who specialize in their very particular areas of the marketplace. We win when we empower the outstanding leaders of these teams to focus on their customers and build businesses around them. My job is to set direction, select great leaders, provide them with the environment in which they can make decisions and hold them accountable to those decisions. In that context, I've looked at the position of Markel insurance and made several key decisions over the past few weeks.

謝謝你，布萊恩，大家好。感謝您給我這個機會介紹自己，並簡要分享我對 Markel Group Cornerstone 保險業務的願景。首先，我想說我是一個喜歡讓事情變得簡單的人。我負責的組織在世界各地銷售各種專業保險產品。不多不少。多年來，Markel 已證明自己有能力在這個競爭激烈的市場中站穩腳跟。我對 Markel Insurance 的主要觀察是，我們實際上是許多專注於特定市場領域的團隊的混合體。當我們授權這些團隊的傑出領導者專注於他們的客戶並圍繞他們開展業務時，我們就贏了。我的工作是設定方向，選拔優秀的領導者，為他們提供一個可以做出決策的環境，並讓他們對這些決策負責。在這種背景下，我研究了 Markel 保險的情況，並在過去幾週做出了幾個關鍵決定。

Firstly, we simplified our structure to ensure that our core business units are clearly aligned with the buying behavior of our customers and distribution partners. Thanks by retaining a high degree of focus on our customers. Second, we're going to double down our commitment to the US wholesale and specialty market. I'm delighted to say that Wendy Hauser will be leading this critical area of our business. Third, we will progressively shift our shared service organizations such as IT, which currently reside at a corporate center to our frontline divisions. This will create far stronger alignment between technology and underwriting, for example, will also drive greater efficiency in decision-making and increase the speed at which we're able to deliver products to customers. I plan to share more about the broad-broad outline of this plan and we speak to our investors in Omaha on May 4, as today's call is dedicated to our quarterly results.

首先，我們簡化了結構，以確保我們的核心業務部門與客戶和分銷合作夥伴的購買行為保持一致。透過高度關注我們的客戶來表示感謝。其次，我們將加倍致力於美國批發和專業市場。我很高興地說，溫迪豪瑟將領導我們業務的這個關鍵領域。第三，我們將逐步把目前位於企業中心的IT等共享服務組織轉移到我們的第一線部門。例如，這將使技術與承保之間建立更緊密的聯繫，也將提高決策效率並加快我們向客戶交付產品的速度。我計劃分享更多有關該計劃的概要，我們將於 5 月 4 日在奧馬哈與投資者交談，因為今天的電話會議專門討論我們的季度業績。

In summary, I firmly believe that the combination of selecting great leaders and then trusting and empowering them to build great businesses, differentiates Markel, when hiring people and serving customers is the secret sauce that creates pride and ownership to ensure that good decisions are made every single day without the need for micro management. Markel has believed in this approach since the beginning, and it will drive our success going forward. I want to end by saying this role is the most exciting professional opportunity of my life. I look forward to the work ahead. We have tremendous potential here at Markel. It's time for us to show the world what we can do.

總而言之，我堅信，選擇優秀的領導者，然後信任並授權他們建立偉大的企業，是 Markel 在招聘員工和服務客戶時脫穎而出的秘訣，它能創造自豪感和主人翁精神，確保每天都能做出正確的決策，而無需微觀管理。Markel 從一開始就相信這種方法，它將推動我們未來的成功。最後我想說，這個角色是我一生中最令人興奮的職業機會。我期待著未來的工作。Markel 擁有巨大的潛力。現在是我們向世界展示我們能做什麼的時候了。

Thank you, Simon. And unfortunately, given our technical difficulties. I'll ask my colleagues to let me know if you can hear me or not.

謝謝你，西蒙。不幸的是，我們遇到了技術困難。我會讓我的同事告訴我你是否能聽到我說話。

We can hear. Loud and clear.

我們能聽到。聲音響亮、清晰。

Thank you, Simon. Finally, you may have noticed the press release that we sent on April 15. As part of our annual Omaha brunch tradition, this year, we will be answering questions, as we always do, and we can't wait to see all of you there.

謝謝你，西蒙。最後，您可能已經注意到我們在4月15日發出的新聞稿。作為我們一年一度的奧馬哈早午餐傳統的一部分，今年我們將像往常一樣回答問題，我們迫不及待地想在那裡見到大家。

Before we open the Q&A this year in Omaha, we will be giving a brief presentation. While this marks a slight deviation from our tradition, there's been a lot going on in the business, and we felt in this specific year, it is important that we share some updates with you, our partners. We thought there would be no more appropriate setting to do so than in Omaha in a room full of our longest tenured and most engaged partners.

在今年奧馬哈問答開始之前，我們將做一個簡短的介紹。雖然這與我們的傳統略有不同，但業務上已經發生了很多事情，我們認為在這一年中，與我們的合作夥伴分享一些最新情況非常重要。我們認為，沒有比在奧馬哈，在一個坐滿我們任職時間最長、最投入的合夥人的房間裡進行這一活動更合適的場合了。

With that, we will open things up to your questions. And I'd also like to note that Mike Heaton, our COO is also in the room to join us for the Q&A. Jeanine, if you'd be so kind as to open the floor for questions.

這樣，我們就可以回答您的問題了。我還想指出，我們的營運長 Mike Heaton 也在場，與我們一起參加問答環節。Jeanine，請容許我提問。

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。我們現在開始問答環節。（操作員指示）

Andrew Kligerman from TD Securities

道明證券的 Andrew Kligerman

I guess the first question is around the favorable 7.2% prior year development and I think it was called out in the release, professional liability and general liability. Could you -- just given that you've taken a big charge in those areas about 5 quarters ago, could you elaborate on the accident years and maybe a little bit more on the products where you're seeing the favorable development?

我想第一個問題是關於去年有利的 7.2% 的發展，我認為這是在發布、專業責任和一般責任時提到的。鑑於您在大約 5 個季度前對這些領域進行了大力投入，您能否詳細說明事故發生年份的情況，並再多介紹一下您看到良好發展的產品？

Thank you, Andrew, I'll ask Brian to respond.

謝謝你，安德魯，我會讓布萊恩回覆。

Yes. Thanks, Tom. Andrew, what I would say is really what we saw in the first quarter was pretty much a quiet quarter from kind of an actual versus expected loss development. And so if you pair that with kind of our level of prudency and how our reserving philosophy is formed consistently be more likely redundant than deficient. That reserving philosophy produces a natural amount of takedowns quarter-over-quarter. We allocate that prudency largely into those professional and casualty longer tail lines. So really what's coming through is just us moving prudency into the current year and taking a little of that out of the prior years with kind of benign activity across the rest of the portfolio.

是的。謝謝，湯姆。安德魯，我想說的是，從實際損失與預期損失的發展來看，第一季的情況相當平靜。因此，如果將其與我們的審慎程度以及我們始終如一形成的儲備理念結合起來，那麼它更有可能是多餘的，而不是不足的。這種保留理念自然會導致季度環比的刪除量增加。我們將這種謹慎主要分配給那些專業和意外的較長尾線。因此，我們實際上採取的做法是，在今年採取審慎態度，並在前幾年採取一些溫和的措施，對投資組合的其他部分採取溫和的行動。

Got it. Okay. And maybe moving over to the expense ratio at 35.8%, and you cited that it was 1 point better than Q4. I've observed a number of developments. I think you talked about some time ago, put out a release on Guidewire, managing your claims, Simon, who's just talked about simplification. Any sense of where that 35 intake could go? I know a lot of your peers are under 30. Any thoughts on your objective or where that can go?

知道了。好的。也許將費用率提高到 35.8%，您提到這比第四季好 1 個百分點。我觀察到了許多發展。我想您之前談過，在 Guidewire 上發布了一份新聞稿，管理您的索賠，西蒙，他剛才談到了簡化。知道那 35 個進氣口可以流向哪裡嗎？我知道你們中的很多人都不到30歲。您對自己的目標或未來發展有何想法？

Yes. Thank you, Andrew. Brian, continue, if you would, please.

是的。謝謝你，安德魯。布萊恩，如果可以的話，請繼續。

Yes. So Andrew, what I'd say is we're not where we want to be. The expense ratio at where we're at is not where we want to get to. We certainly have a little bit of drag in there from a handful of things, one being continued investment in the IT space. Another we talked about is launching some new platforms, particularly in Asia and Europe, where we've hired a lot of the staff to grow those businesses. the earned premium just hasn't come through to catch up with that. So you've got some natural things that will bring that down over time. We also have a few things in the quarter, our total earned premium being down 2%. Some of the underwriting actions we took last year starting to come through. That will start to diminish off, and we'll see more normal earned premium growth which will create some lift in the -- lift downwards in the expense ratio there, along with a few onetime items in the quarter, around some consulting expenses and severance costs that has a little bit of a drag. So while we won't give an exact number, we definitely are targeting something lower than what we're sitting today.

是的。所以安德魯，我想說的是，我們還沒有達到我們想要的水平。我們現在的費用率並不是我們想要達到的水平。我們確實受到了一些因素的阻礙，其中之一就是對 IT 領域的持續投資。我們談到的另一個問題是推出一些新平台，特別是在亞洲和歐洲，我們在那裡僱用了大量員工來發展這些業務。但賺取的溢價還不足以彌補這一差距。因此，隨著時間的推移，一些自然的事情會降低這一水平。本季我們也遇到了一些問題，我們的總保費收入下降了 2%。我們去年採取的一些承保行動開始取得成效。這種成長將開始減少，我們將看到更多正常的已賺保費成長，這將對費用率產生一些提升——下降，以及本季度的一些一次性項目，圍繞一些諮詢費用和遣散費，這會帶來一點拖累。因此，雖然我們不會給出確切的數字，但我們的目標肯定比現在的水平要低。

Yes. And Andrew, I might just add. Simon here. We talked about simplification. One of the things that I'm very, very focused on is having clearly align P&L statements and owners that sit on the top of those P&Ls. And I kind of spoke a little bit in my comments about moving our central services into those business units. And I think what that does naturally is give business leaders a decision to make over what needs to have and what's nice to have. And I think there's just a natural opportunity there for us to reassess the expenses and we're putting those investments or where we're spending our money. And naturally, I think that will reduce the total number of dollars that we're spending on various things.

是的。我還要補充一點，安德魯。西蒙在這裡。我們討論了簡化。我非常非常關注的事情之一是清晰地協調損益表和位於損益表頂部的所有者。我在我的評論中談到了將我們的中央服務轉移到這些業務部門。我認為這自然會讓企業領導者做出決定，決定什麼是必須的，什麼是可有可無的。我認為這是一個自然的機會，讓我們重新評估我們的支出、投資方向或資金的使用。當然，我認為這將減少我們在各種事情上花費的總金額。

Now like Brian said, I'm not going to put a target on that today. but that's the direction of travel. And when you put business leaders in charge of their P&Ls and give them clear accountability for it, I think good things come from that overall.

現在就像布萊恩所說的那樣，我今天不會為此設定目標。但這是旅行的方向。當你讓企業領導者負責他們的損益表並給予他們明確的責任時，我認為整體上會產生好的結果。

Got it, thanks very much

明白了，非常感謝

Mark Hughes from Truist.

Truist 的 Mark Hughes。

Yeah, thank you very much. Good morning. What should we think about the cadence of the top line as we go through the year. I think you'd mentioned we should start to see a little bit more momentum. Just trying to get a sense of how much more kind of refinement of the book is ahead of us? Or will we start to transition to more of a growth top line?

是的，非常感謝。早安.我們該如何看待這一年的收入節奏？我想您提到我們應該開始看到更多的動力。只是想了解我們面前還有多少種對這本書的完善？或者我們會開始轉向更多的成長收入？

Thank you, Mark. And I think both Simon and Mike and Brian might have a point of view about that. I will also add in from the Venture side comparisons we had against a wonderful year last year made for tough comparisons, but the Ventures business is doing well, and I'll let my colleagues speak on the insurance side.

謝謝你，馬克。我認為西蒙、麥克和布萊恩對此可能有自己的看法。我還將從創投方面進行補充，我們與去年的精彩表現進行了比較，雖然比較起來有些困難，但創投業務表現良好，我會讓我的同事就保險方面發表意見。

Yes, Simon speaking. I'll go first on this is Mark. Thanks for the question. A couple of things on this point. '23 and '24, there is a significant amount of focus on re-underwriting here. There's underwriting actions that Brian spoke about. That, as you take those decisions in the round, they're good [words], they're going to improve the combined ratio over time -- during that period, and that gives me a really nice foundation from which to focus on. Can we say that no further is required? We always -- we've got a huge book of business. Lots and lots of different lines. So we're always kind of making decisions in and around them, but I would suggest that the real heavy lifting is really behind us from that perspective. That gives us a great opportunity to turn to growth, and that's really why we set up in a way that I started to describe earlier. Just to give you a sense of that by passing out our wholesale and specialty unit under Wendy Hauser, and then putting our programs and solutions businesses under Alex Martin, we got two leaders there who've got smaller portfolios than we had in that US business previously. That gives them more opportunity, time and attention to say how do we win in these specific marketplaces that we've created P&Ls for here.

是的，我是西蒙。我首先發言的是馬克。謝謝你的提問。關於這一點有幾件事。 23 和 24，這裡重點關注的是重新承保。布萊恩談到了承保行動。當你全面做出這些決定時，它們都是好的[字詞]，它們會隨著時間的推移改善綜合比率——在那段時期內，這為我提供了一個非常好的基礎，讓我可以集中精力。我們能說不需要再做進一步的事了嗎？我們總是——我們有大量的業務。很多很多不同的線條。因此，我們總是在它們內部和周圍做出決定，但我認為從這個角度來看，真正的重任已經過去了。這為我們提供了實現成長的絕佳機會，這也是我們以我之前描述的方式建立公司的原因。為了讓大家了解這一點，我們將批發和專業部門交給溫迪·豪瑟 (Wendy Hauser) 管理，將專案和解決方案業務交給亞歷克斯·馬丁 (Alex Martin) 管理，我們在那里安排了兩位領導者，他們的投資組合比我們之前在美國業務中的投資組合要小。這為他們提供了更多的機會、時間和注意力來思考我們如何在我們為其創建損益表的這些特定市場中獲勝。

An example within Alex Martin's programs and Solutions business, we've got a business called Markel Personal Lines run by an individual called Jeff May. Great business. We've been seeing huge demand actually in that particular space over the last few years. But Jeff's been really pushing that forward on its own with his own team. That now elevates into the organization where Alex is looking at really strongly, I'm looking at really strongly and saying, "Well, what can we invest in Jeff's personal lines business there" to take that to the next level and move it from to $650 million business at the moment, how do we make that to a profitable $1 billion business, for example. You can ask the same question for our workers comp book, our surety book, and of course, the big business that Wendy will be leading in our wholesale and specialty lines.

以亞歷克斯馬丁 (Alex Martin) 的計劃和解決方案業務為例，我們有一家名為 Markel Personal Lines 的公司，由一位名叫傑夫梅 (Jeff May) 的個人經營。很棒的生意。過去幾年來，我們確實看到了該特定領域的巨大需求。但傑夫和他的團隊一直在推動這項進程。現在，這個問題已經上升到亞歷克斯非常重視的組織層面，我也非常重視這個問題，並說道：“好吧，我們可以在傑夫的個人險業務上投資什麼”，以將其提升到一個新的水平，並將其從目前的 6.5 億美元業務轉變為一個盈利的 10 億美元業務，例如。您可以針對我們的工人補償書、保證書，當然還有溫蒂將領導的批發和專業業務的大業務提出同樣的問題。

So the way that we've set up really magnifies our attention on where the best opportunities are for investment and I think as I look, not just in the US but around the world, there is significant scope for us to do more as an organization. So '25 is a bit of a transitional year as that premium is kind of flat in the early stages, and we expect some acceleration during the second half. But the initiatives that will set off during the course of '25 will pay dividends in '26 and beyond.

因此，我們的設立方式確實增強了我們對最佳投資機會的關注，我認為，不僅在美國，而且在世界各地，我們作為一個組織都有很大的發展空間。因此，25 年是一個過渡年，因為在早期階段，溢價比較平穩，我們預計下半年會加速。但 25 年啟動的舉措將在 26 年及以後帶來回報。

Maybe I'll just throw 2 quick things at what Simon said. If you think on the US side, our most profitable lines grew about 8% in the quarter. A lot of that was in our E&S book and E&S platform in the US side. The other point I'll make on the international side, our growth was around 3%, but the dollar weakened quite a bit in the first quarter. So if you take constant rate of exchanges to normalize that, it's more like 6%. So there is a little bit of FX noise kind of in the top line number, particularly on the international side.

也許我只想針對西蒙所說的話提出兩點看法。如果你從美國方面來看，我們最賺錢的產品線在本季成長了約 8%。其中許多內容都包含在我們美國的 E&S 書籍和 E&S 平台上。關於國際方面，我要說的另一點是，我們的成長率約為 3%，但美元在第一季大幅貶值。因此，如果採用恆定匯率來使其正常化，則該數字更像是 6%。因此，頂線數字中存在一些外匯噪音，特別是在國際方面。

Yes. The 6% adjustment, was that the overall written premium company-wide?

是的。6% 的調整是整個公司整體的承保保費嗎？

Written premium companywide?

全公司範圍內簽訂保費合約？

No, that's just on our international division, just within the international business.

不，這只是我們國際部門的國際業務。

And then, Simon, I think you mentioned you had optimism about US wholesale and specialty. I think the new structure is part of that. Is there anything out of the market that you see that gives you optimism? Anything about casualty pricing, loss trends, driving the top line? What is the -- influencing your thoughts there?

然後，西蒙，我想你提到你對美國批發和專業行業持樂觀態度。我認為新結構是其中的一部分。您看到市場上有什麼事情讓您感到樂觀嗎？有關於傷亡定價、損失趨勢、推動收入成長的任何資訊嗎？是什麼影響了你的想法？

Yes. So wholesale and specialty, if we just take the excess and surplus lines aspect of that, actually let me just get the figures for it. Mark, the compound annual growth rate in that E&S market in the US over the past 5 or 6 years, it's been 20% year-on-year-on-year. Now sometimes, that's a soft market, hard market thing. So in a hard market, business shifts into E&S. My view is that there is a structural move now within the US marketplace of a move towards the excess and surplus line space.

是的。因此，如果我們只考慮批發和專業方面的超額和剩餘線路方面，實際上讓我得到它的數字。馬克，過去 5 或 6 年間，美國 E&S 市場的年複合成長率一直維持在 20% 左右。現在有時候，這是一個軟市場，硬市場的事情。因此，在艱難的市場中，業務轉向 E&S。我的觀點是，目前美國市場正在向過剩和剩餘線路空間邁進，這是一個結構性趨勢。

Reason for that, I think customers become much more demanding in what they want from their wording and the solutions that are being delivered by insurers. They don't want the vanilla solutions quite so much these days. They do want a specialty offering, which is tailored towards their needs. And that's typically when you go into the E&S market, that's where that comes from.

原因在於，我認為客戶對保險公司提供的措辭和解決方案的要求變得更加嚴格。如今，他們不太想要普通的解決方案。他們確實想要一個能夠滿足他們需求的特色產品。這通常是當你進入 E&S 市場時，就會出現的情況。

So we've seen significant growth, we've got a buildup in customer demand for the products being sold there. And the strength of the brokerages that have developed in that space, take the big 3 (inaudible), CRT, RT, specialty. I mean they are -- business is gravitating towards them and they're putting more and more investment into that space. So I just feel that there is a structural shift and tailwinds within that E&S space in the wholesale and specialty market in the US Markel office and our capabilities around underwriting, distribution, the way that we interact with customers and brokers in that space.

因此，我們看到了顯著的成長，客戶對在那裡銷售的產品的需求也在增加。並且在該領域發展起來的經紀公司的實力，包括三大（聽不清楚），CRT，RT，專業。我的意思是——商業正在向他們靠攏，他們正在向該領域投入越來越多的投資。因此，我只是覺得，美國 Markel 辦事處的批發和專業市場中的 E&S 領域以及我們在承保、分銷方面的能力以及我們與該領域的客戶和經紀人互動的方式正在發生結構性轉變和順風。

On the rate question, that's a good one. The casualty market, in particular in that area is seeing (inaudible). I think that was needed. We've seen claims trend spike really in the last few years. That's been a constant theme throughout the industry. And the market is responding to that and responding quite hard. So we're seeing rate in the first quarter of this year at 13%, and that's on top of 10% rate in 2024.

關於利率問題，這是個好問題。傷亡保險市場，尤其是該地區的傷亡保險市場（聽不清楚）。我認為這是必要的。我們發現過去幾年索賠趨勢確實大幅上升。這是整個產業不變的主題。市場正在對此作出反應，而且反應相當強烈。因此，我們預計今年第一季的利率將達到 13%，而 2024 年的利率將達到 10%。

So there's a compounding of upwards rate in that area. We're also seeing kind of the size of lines that are being offered in the market, they're shrinking, they're getting smaller. So people are able to really underwrite our way through the market in the casualty space. I think that creates very significant opportunity for Markel now that we've cleaned house, as I said, in '23 and '24. So reasons for optimism is absolute general growth our capabilities in this space and in particular, the casualty lines of business are seeing some really favorable rates as we look at it today.

因此該地區的利率呈現複合上升趨勢。我們也看到市場上提供的線路規模正在縮小，越來越小。因此，人們能夠真正承保我們在意外險領域的市場。我認為，既然我們已經在 23 年和 24 年清理了門戶，那麼這為 Markel 創造了非常重要的機會。因此，樂觀的理由是我們在這個領域的能力絕對整體成長，特別是傷亡業務線，正如我們今天所看到的，看到了一些非常有利的利率。

That's a pretty good dual point there, Simon. You would say if we were operating at peak efficiency, you still feel pretty optimistic about the marketplace and tailwinds, summing up some of what you said there, but you couple that with some of the changes you're making internally where, for whatever reason, we haven't necessarily had quite clarity of P&L ownership that you might want to see. And now you've got leaders who will be very, very clear and about the business that they own and the decisions that they're responsible for making. You put those two things together, it's going to be pretty interesting.

西蒙，這是一個非常好的雙重觀點。你會說，如果我們以最高效率運營，你仍然對市場和順風感到相當樂觀，總結一下你在那裡所說的一些內容，但你把它與你在內部所做的某些改變結合起來，無論出於何種原因，我們不一定非常清楚你可能希望看到的損益所有權。現在，領導者將非常清楚自己所擁有的業務以及自己負責所做的決定。如果你把這兩件事放在一起，就會變得非常有趣。

Thank you very much. Appreciate.

非常感謝。欣賞。

Andrew Anderson from Jefferies.

傑富瑞的安德魯安德森。

Hey, good morning. In the [queue], you had mentioned that you decreased the level of caution and loss reserves. Could you maybe talk about what drove that level of change in caution, just given that social inflation is still pretty high across the industry?

嘿，早安。在[隊列]中，您提到您降低了謹慎和損失準備金的水平。鑑於整個行業的社會通膨水平仍然很高，您能否談談是什麼促使我們做出如此謹慎的改變？

Thank you, Andrew Bryan. Would you handle that, please?

謝謝你，安德魯布萊恩。請你處理一下好嗎？

Yes. I would say it's [cut it] back to the answer that I gave Andrew earlier. It's really about kind of realizing a fairly benign quarter kind of flipping some of the prudency [into the courier] taking some out in the prior year. We still hold a high level of redundancy in our casualty lines, our core loss picks there have remained fairly steady. We haven't budged off of those at all. It's just more of the level of prudency that we hold across the balance sheet as a whole that's moving around.

是的。我想說這又回到了我之前給安德魯的答案。這實際上是為了實現一個相當溫和的季度，將一些謹慎轉向快遞，而將上一年的一些謹慎轉向快遞。我們的傷亡險線仍然保持著較高的冗餘度，我們的核心損失選擇仍然保持相當穩定。我們根本沒有改變這些。這只是我們在整個資產負債表上保持的審慎程度不斷變化。

Within the professional space, we continue to be watching closely, particularly in that risk managed kind of large account Certainly, we've seen some pops and claims in the 2022 year across the industry, has started out fairly early in the tail, pretty rough. So we have been adding a little bit in that space to kind of continue to buffer that year.

在專業領域，我們將繼續密切關注，特別是在風險管理類型的大額帳戶中。當然，我們已經看到整個行業在 2022 年出現了一些波動和索賠，在尾部開始得相當早，相當艱難。因此，我們一直在該空間中添加一點點內容，以便在那一年繼續緩衝。

And then I think you said on the insurance underlying loss ratio, you think there could be improvement year-over-year. I just want to level set what base should we be looking at for '24.

然後我想您說過，就保險基礎損失率而言，您認為可能會逐年改善。我只是想確定一下我們應該以什麼為基礎來看待 '24。

Yes. I would say, ultimately, what's going to happen is the underwriting actions that we've taken over the last 1.5 years or so, start earning their way through. Those underwriting actions were targeted to bring down the attritional loss ratio. So you'll see that kind of call its way through the results quarter-over-quarter and the earnings mix shifts.

是的。我想說，最終會發生的是，我們在過去一年半左右採取的承保行動開始獲得回報。這些承保行動的目的是降低損耗率。因此，您會看到這種變化會透過季度環比業績和盈利組合的變化而發生。

We've also shifted the portfolio from just a growth standpoint towards more premium in our more profitable lines, so that should -- that will improve the combined ratio overall may or may not shift the loss ratio versus the expense ratio depending on which line that is. So a line like [surely] that we feel very good about. We've been growing quite a bit in that has a very different kind of loss ratio, expense ratio profile than some of our other lines.

我們還將投資組合從單純的成長角度轉向了利潤更高的產品線中的更高保費，因此，這應該會改善總體綜合比率，但可能會或可能不會改變損失率與費用率，具體取決於哪條產品線。因此，我們對「肯定」這樣的台詞感覺非常好。我們已經取得了相當大的成長，其損失率、費用率狀況與我們的其他一些業務截然不同。

Sorry. So just to be clear, if we're looking at the 63.5% insurance ex cat, ex PYD, what we should be thinking there's improvement relative to?

對不起。因此，需要明確的是，如果我們看一下 63.5% 的保險（不包括貓和 PYD），我們應該認為相對於什麼有所改善？

I would say we would continue to see that market is way down slowly over time, yes.

我想說的是，隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續看到市場緩慢下滑。

Okay, thanks. And then just last one. I think last year, within Nephila, you made a comment that you were kind of doing some hedging and you didn't really deploy all the business just given, I think it's still kind of an active hurricane outlook according to Colorado State, and it's still obviously very early in the year. But can you maybe talk about just capital deployment on Nephila and how it could earn into other ops?

好的，謝謝。接下來是最後一個。我認為去年，在 Nephila 內部，您曾評論說您正在做一些對沖，並沒有真正部署所有的業務，我認為根據科羅拉多州的說法，這仍然是一種活躍的颶風前景，而且顯然還處於年初階段。但是您能否談談 Nephila 上的資本部署以及它如何為其他行動帶來收益？

Brian, if you would handle that?

布萊恩，你能處理嗎？

Yeah, so I mean they still they kind of go a year by year in terms of their strategy looking at what's out there in the marketplace. They deployed some of their capital is still in the process of being deployed, certainly elevated cat seasons on their mind.

是的，所以我的意思是，他們仍然會逐年制定策略，觀察市場上的情況。他們部署的部分資本仍在部署過程中，這無疑提高了他們對貓季的擔憂。

What they're going to do is what they think is in the best interest of their investors and how do they manage returns for their investors and kind of what they believe the current climate is so. That could involve various levels of buying certain types of hedges, whether they be cap bonds or ILWs within the portfolio. When they buy those they tend to use our rated paper to front them so that's what you're seeing in the queue, it's just Marquell providing access to our rated paper to facilitate the transactions they're using to manage kind of the expected returns for their investors.

他們要做的是根據他們認為最符合投資者利益的事情，如何為投資者管理回報，以及他們認為當前的環境是怎樣的。這可能涉及購買不同程度的特定類型的對沖，無論是投資組合中的上限債券還是 ILW。當他們購買這些債券時，他們傾向於使用我們的評級票據作為鋪墊，所以這就是您在隊列中看到的，這只是 Marquell 提供對我們評級票據的訪問權限，以促進他們用來管理投資者預期回報的交易。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andrew Kligerman from TD Securities

道明證券的 Andrew Kligerman

Yes, thank you for taking my follow-up question. Simon, I'm kind of curious with the addition of Guidewire, what are you doing in terms of data and analytics and AI? And how do you see Markel's insurance operations relative to your peers in that area?

是的，感謝您回答我的後續問題。西蒙，我有點好奇，Guidewire 的加入，你們在數據、分析和人工智慧方面做了什麼？您如何看待 Markel 的保險業務與該地區同行相比？

Thanks for the question, Andrew. So data and analytics on my mind, is absolutely fundamental critical area of the industry, right? People who are going to start winning in data analytics, they're going to be able to price better, price quicker, respond faster to various customers. Whether you're in personal lines, commercial lines or specialty lines that we're putting forward here, I think that's going to be very, very important. Obviously, I was responsible for a long time. the international operations. And in that segment, we probably increased our spend in the data and analytics team fivefold over the last 3 years. So we've created a body of people that literally come to work and just -- building models and they're building data warehouses, which are operating with API tucked in as well to tell us more about the business than we've ever seen before. And we're getting genuine with huge returns on that and the underwriting community is using that team more and more. I think we've probably got upwards of 40 people in that team, and it was only a team of kind of 3 or 4 previously. We're going to be taking those skill sets that we see in the international operations and building on a smaller group of people that we have here in the US, but it's something that I'm very, very focused on. to spend some more of our investment dollars. That's going to be crucial to us in the future.

謝謝你的提問，安德魯。所以在我看來，數據和分析絕對是該行業的關鍵領域，對嗎？那些在數據分析領域取得成功的人將能夠更好地定價、更快地定價、更快地回應各種客戶。無論您從事的是個人業務、商業業務還是我們在此提出的專業業務，我認為這都非常非常重要。顯然，我長期負責國際業務。在該領域，我們在過去 3 年中對數據和分析團隊的支出可能增加了 5 倍。因此，我們組建了一支人員隊伍，他們實際上只是來工作並建立模型，他們正在建立資料倉儲，這些倉庫也使用 API 進行操作，以便向我們提供比以往任何時候更多的業務資訊。我們確實獲得了豐厚的回報，核保界也越來越多地使用該團隊。我認為我們這個團隊可能有 40 多人，而之前只有 3 或 4 個人。我們將利用我們在國際運營中看到的那些技能，並在美國現有的一小群人的基礎上進行建設，但這是我非常非常關注的事情。投入更多的投資資金。這對我們未來來說至關重要。

AI technology, that's being used increasingly around the business. We see it in some of the data ingestion that we're bringing into some of our systems so that that's being done automatically rather than it being done by people, frees up our people's time to underwrite and then serve customers. So I think that will play an increasing role as we go through the next few years. Not all the AI, by the way, is being done in-house. We're partnering up with specialists outside of the organization to do some of our processes for us. We see quite a lot of that from partners out in India. So AI doesn't always have to be done at home. It can be done with partners who are the real focus in that area.

人工智慧技術在商業領域的應用越來越廣泛。我們在引入某些系統的資料提取過程中看到了這一點，這些資料提取過程可以自動完成，而不是由人工完成，從而讓我們的員工有更多的時間來承保並為客戶提供服務。因此我認為，在未來幾年裡，它將發揮越來越重要的作用。順便說一句，並非所有的人工智慧都是在公司內部完成的。我們正在與組織外部的專家合作，為我們完成一些流程。我們從印度的合作夥伴那裡看到了很多這樣的情況。因此，人工智慧並不總是必須在家中完成。我們可以與真正專注於該領域的合作夥伴一起完成這項工作。

Guidewire is slightly different. I would say the Guidewire investment is particular to our claims organization. We've taken many systems that we're operating independently, and we're putting all of those on one claims Guidewire system, which we felt it was a terrific investment in that particular area. And ultimately, claims is what we're selling when we need those people to work both efficiently and have workflows, which are just top of market, and that's what the Guidewire system does. That's just coming to [force] actually over the last quarter, we started to use at Guidewire and (inaudible) and we'll start to use that increasingly as we go through the year. And I think that will lead to both efficiencies, but the quality of our claims dealing as well.

導絲略有不同。我想說 Guidewire 的投資對於我們的索賠組織來說具有特殊意義。我們採用了許多獨立運作的系統，並將所有這些系統放在一個 Guidewire 索賠系統中，我們認為這是對該特定領域的一項極好的投資。最終，當我們需要這些人有效率地工作並擁有工作流程時，我們所銷售的就是索賠，這是市場上的頂級水平，而這正是 Guidewire 系統所做的。實際上，這是上個季度才開始生效的，我們開始在 Guidewire 使用（聽不清楚），並且隨著時間的推移，我們將開始越來越多地使用它。我認為這不僅會提高效率，還會提高我們處理索賠的品質。

I hope what I've given to you, and very happy to take follow-ups on this, is a focus on investment around data analytics and our core technology stack as well. We are spending tens of millions in those areas at the moment to revolutionize the quality of what we do at the coal phase, but our ability to actually see what's going on across the portfolio management perspective as well is it's something that I'm passionate about and will continue to push over the next year or so.

我希望我給您的信息，並且非常高興對此進行跟進，重點是圍繞數據分析和我們的核心技術堆疊進行投資。我們目前正在這些領域投入數千萬美元，以徹底改變我們在煤炭階段所做工作的質量，但我們也能夠真正了解投資組合管理視角中正在發生的事情，這是我熱衷的事情，並將在未來一年左右繼續推動。

And then just my follow-up would be around the Ventures business. It looked like revenue dropped off about 1%. And I'm just kind of curious color around -- I think on the call, you cited consumer and building products seeing a deceleration or maybe even a drop in revenue. Maybe just elaborate a little more on what you're seeing across your different ventures, businesses and what we might expect over the course of the year.

然後我的後續事宜將圍繞創投業務。看起來收入下降了約 1%。我只是有點好奇——我想在電話會議上，您提到消費品和建築產品的收入正在減速，甚至下降。也許您可以更詳細地闡述您在不同企業、業務中看到的情況以及我們對今年的預期。

Andrew, yes, it's Tom, and I'll invite my colleague Mike to speak as well. Mainly, the first quarter last year was a white hot quarter and specifically the highest heat and the most wonderful economic performance as we're in the realm of transportation and construction that we spoke of. So it's just, frankly, a fairly challenging comparison. By the time we get to the second half of the year, those comparisons will be a little easier and a little more normal.

安德魯，是的，我是湯姆，我也會邀請我的同事麥克來演講。主要是去年第一季是一個白熱化的一個季度，具體來說是我們所說的交通運輸和建築領域熱度最高、經濟表現最出色的一個季度。所以坦白說，這只是一個相當具有挑戰性的比較。到今年下半年，這些比較將會變得更容易、更正常。

In terms of the turbulence that you see in the economy, I think the first quarter was pretty good. We're attending -- we're looking at the monthly financial statements. We're attending the Board meetings of each of the businesses to try to keep our fingers on the pulse of what's happening there in the economy. And I would say any data, any hard data that you look at is still pretty early days, but everybody is hypersensitive to changes in the economy that may or may not come as of yet, things are carrying on at a pretty good level.

就經濟動盪而言，我認為第一季表現相當不錯。我們正在參加—我們正在查看每月的財務報表。我們參加每個企業的董事會會議，以便隨時了解當地經濟的動態。我想說，任何數據，任何硬數據，你看到的都還處於早期階段，但每個人都對可能發生或可能不會發生的經濟變化高度敏感，事情正在以相當好的水平繼續發展。

So I'll pause there and let Mike pick up if he has anything he wants to add to that.

因此，我將在這裡暫停一下，讓麥克繼續說，看看他是否還有什麼要補充的。

Maybe just to further the point, I agree with all of that for sure. Maybe here's the way you could think about it, Andrew, if you think about each of those businesses as a car. We have different kinds of cars within that family of companies. Some of them are [Steady Eddies]. They go 55 miles an hour down the road every single day. And those are a little easier to get your hands around. We've got a really good, stable base of those. And a number of those businesses, Tom alluded to, and we've said this quarter after quarter for many years or the kind that you buy expecting to go 55 miles an hour, but sometimes they're going 65 miles, sometimes they're going 45 miles.

也許只是為了進一步說明這一點，我肯定同意所有這些。安德魯，如果你把這些企業都想像成一輛車，也許你可以這麼想。我們公司旗下有不同類型的車款。其中一些是[穩定的漩渦]。他們每天以每小時 55 英里的速度在路上行駛。而且它們更容易拿在手裡。我們擁有非常好的、穩定的基礎。湯姆提到，我們多年來每個季度都說過，有很多這樣的企業，你買的時候預計時速 55 英里，但有時它們會開到 65 英里，有時又會開到 45 英里。

In recent years, a number of those important cars have been going to 65 miles. And that's fantastic. I mean we'd love that and now maybe they're easing back down closer to the 55 miles. And sometimes it's hard to know if they're going to go to 50 miles before they come back to 55 miles. We don't really worry too much about that as long as over the course of years, they're going to [the speed] at which we expect them to go. And on hold, that's absolutely true. So that's some of what we're feeling, and it's a little hard to look at them and know exactly which speed on aggregate, we're going to end up on. But as Tom said, we're really thrilled with the last couple of years. And that's a good thing.

近年來，許多重要的汽車行駛里程已達到 65 英里。這真是太棒了。我的意思是我們很喜歡這樣，現在他們可能正在慢慢放慢速度，接近 55 英里。有時很難知道他們是否會先走 50 英里，然後再回到 55 英里。只要在未來幾年內，它們能夠按照我們預期的速度發展，我們就不會太擔心這一點。並且，這絕對是真的。這就是我們的一些感受，我們很難透過觀察它們確切地知道我們最終會達到什麼樣的整體速度。但正如湯姆所說，我們對過去幾年的表現感到非常興奮。這是一件好事。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Charles Gold from Truist.

Truist 的 Charles Gold。

Thank you. Simon, congratulations. I can't wait to spend some time with you at the reunion. I appreciate the move towards simplicity and clarity. I'm not sure the clarity I see is based on recent cataract surgery or the numbers are becoming clear.

謝謝。西蒙，恭喜你。我迫不及待地想在聚會上和你一起度過一段時間。我很欣賞這種朝著簡單和清晰邁進的舉措。我不確定我看到的清晰度是基於最近的白內障手術還是數字變得清晰。

But a couple of observations, and I hope you could correct my thoughts. First of all, I saw acquisitions last year, two, I believe that we're roughly $310 million in cash. The way I view that you're taking 4% dollars and putting them in 10% to 12% returns over time and compounding that. The investment income line approaching the $1 billion number. I know you don't pay full tax because some is [muni] but $800 million after taxes and 12.5 million shares comes out to a pretty big number, $60 a share that we start every year with. And I know the lines will cross again, but right now, they're still going in our favor.

但有幾點觀察，我希望你能修正我的想法。首先，我看到去年的收購，我相信我們大約有 3.1 億美元的現金。我認為，你拿出 4% 的美元，隨著時間的推移，將其投入到 10% 到 12% 的回報中，並將其複合化。投資收益線接近10億美元。我知道你不用繳全額稅款，因為有些是市政債券，但稅後 8 億美元和 1250 萬股股票是一個相當大的數字，我們每年開始時每股 60 美元。我知道這條線還會再次交叉，但是現在，它仍然對我們有利。

You've got two products that have been punishing the IP and letters of credit but they're in runoff. And the numbers are coming in a little lower than you first put up. So those look like maybe two points that will be favorable '26 versus '25 and the probabilities of that are extremely high. I never like to do the -- if we didn't count the catastrophe line, but maybe the fires are exceptional, and maybe 2% is a more realistic number. So you take the [2% and the 2%] and you're operating somewhere around [92] as we speak on a going-forward basis and a point for the expense ratio, which you say is headed down.

您有兩種產品一直在懲罰 IP 和信用證，但它們正在流失。而且實際數字比你最初提出的數字低一點。因此，這看起來可能是 26 年對 25 年有利的兩點，而且可能性極高。我從來都不喜歡這樣做——如果我們不計算災難線，但也許火災是例外，也許 2% 是一個更現實的數字。因此，您採用 [2% 和 2%]，並且按照我們所說的未來基礎，您的營運水準將在 [92] 左右，而費用率則處於一個點位，您說這個點位正在下降。

So it looks like we have a [91] company heading into next year with half the catastrophe losses that we had this year, and we're struggling in the [96 to 8] area. So you take the $1 billion of investment income, which we should hit this year, should hit that $2.50 a quarter number and a 5-point reduction in combined ratio and a Markel Ventures division that's doing better than treading water and with the new additions should produce more revenue and EBITDA. The picture has cleared up for me. And I just want to see if I'm looking at things correctly through my new eyes.

因此，看起來我們公司明年的災難損失將只有今年的一半，而且我們在 [96 到 8] 區域陷入困境。因此，假設我們今年的投資收益為 10 億美元，應該達到每季 2.50 美元的目標，綜合成本率將降低 5 個百分點，Markel Ventures 部門的業績將好於原地踏步，隨著新成員的加入，應該會產生更多的收入和 EBITDA。我已看清了一切。我只是想看看我是否能透過新的視角正確地看待事物。

Charles, this is Tom Gayner. Directionally, I agree with your math. The only other thing I would add is that we did last year, spent $573 million to buy back our shares, and we also spent $170 million doing that through the first quarter of this year. So we're applying some of that capital that we're already generating, not theoretical. That's cash the business. So it's being divided by fewer number of shares outstanding.

查爾斯，這是湯姆蓋納。從方向上來說，我同意你的數學。我唯一想補充的是，去年我們確實花了 5.73 億美元回購了我們的股票，今年第一季我們還花了 1.7 億美元回購了股票。因此，我們正在運用一些我們已經產生的資本，而不是理論上的。這就是現金生意。因此，它被較少的流通股數所劃分。

As you know, that's only on my mind daily. And I've beaten you up over the years on that subject, and I applaud the actions that you're taking. You're not saying the words, you're walking the walk. So that's the right thing to do.

正如你所知，我每天只想著這件事。多年來，我一直在這個問題上批評你，我讚賞你所採取的行動。你不是在說這些話，而是在做這些事。所以這是正確的做法。

Thank you. I don't think my colleagues have anything to add. They can jump in if they do.

謝謝。我認為我的同事沒有什麼好補充的。如果他們願意的話，他們就可以跳進去。

Show up at bridge sometime.

有時出現在橋上。

Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back to Tom Gayner for closing remarks.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我想請湯姆蓋納 (Tom Gayner) 致閉幕詞。

Again, thank you all for joining us. We apologize for our technical difficulties along the way. We hope to see you in person, either in Omaha and/or Richmond over the coming weeks. And if not before then, we'll connect 90 days from now on the call. Thank you very much for joining us. Be well.

再次感謝大家的參與。我們對過程中遇到的技術困難深感抱歉。我們希望在未來幾週內在奧馬哈和/或里士滿親自見到您。如果在此之前沒有聯繫，我們將在 90 天後進行通話。非常感謝您加入我們。保重。

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。