Markel Group Inc (MKL) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Products to specific portfolio actions, exhibiting several unprofitable lines, re-underwriting others, and growing in areas of strength. Looking back from where we stand today, we have much to be proud of Markel is earning good returns. We remain committed to our customers from the steps we have taken there. The Markel style continues to guide us.

產品針對特定的投資組合行動，展示幾條無利可圖的產品線，重新承保其他產品線，並在優勢領域實現成長。回顧我們今天的立場，我們有很多值得自豪的事情，因為 Markel 正在獲得豐厚的回報。從我們已經採取的措施來看，我們仍然致力於為客戶服務。馬克爾風格繼續引導著我們。

Overall, the Markel group system is stronger, and much of the groundwork for the road ahead has been laid. Or even a great company, but to be one of the world's great companies. That means more consistent excellence across all our operations, all the time is required. Charting such a course requires continuous self-examination. In 2025 and beyond, we will continue to improve the foundation of our business.

整體來說，Markel集團體系更加強大，未來發展的基礎已經打下。甚至不是一家偉大的公司，而是成為世界上最偉大的公司之一。這意味著我們所有的營運都需要更一致的卓越，時刻保持卓越。規劃這樣的路線需要不斷地自我反省。2025年及以後，我們將繼續完善業務基礎。

Yesterday we announced a board-led review that will include evaluating where we can continue to improve our insurance organization. As part of the review, we will consider ways to simplify our structure, find greater efficiency, optimize our approach to capital allocation, and enhance our disclosures. External consultants and advisors will assist with the review. We look forward to updating our shareholders when that work is completed.

昨天，我們宣布了一項由董事會領導的審查，其中將包括評估我們可以在哪些方面繼續改進我們的保險組織。作為審查的一部分，我們將考慮簡化結構、提高效率、優化資本配置方法和加強揭露的方法。外部諮詢師和顧問將協助審查。我們期待該工作完成後向股東通報最新情況。

Before moving forward, I want to mention that we will not be taking questions on the board led review at this time. Our pursuit of becoming one of the world's great companies, Markel has always come from providing an atmosphere in which people can reach their potential. We want to ensure that our associates are invigorated and empowered. We want to reward the best performing crew members and hold every crew member in the boat accountable.

在繼續之前，我想說一下，我們目前不會回答有關董事會主導的審查的問題。我們致力於成為世界上最偉大的公司之一，Markel 始終致力於提供一種讓人們充分發揮潛力的氛圍。我們希望確保我們的員工充滿活力和力量。我們要獎勵表現最好的船員，並讓船上的每位船員承擔責任。

Your feedback will be incorporated into our work. As the author Kenn Blanchard once said, feedback is the breakfast of champions. One theme that emerged from our recent conversations with shareholders is that you see early progress in insurance but also would like more information on what success looks like, path to get there, and signpost to track along the way. In a similar vein, investors also asked for increased clarity with respect to certain aspects of venture's performance as it doesn't seem to be fully appreciated.

您的回饋將會被納入我們的工作中。正如作家肯恩·布蘭查德（Kenn Blanchard）曾經說過的，反饋是冠軍的早餐。我們最近與股東的對話中出現的一個主題是，您看到了保險業的早期進展，但也希望更多地了解成功的樣子、實現成功的途徑以及沿途的路標。同樣地，投資者也要求對創投公司某些方面的績效給予更高的透明度，因為這些方面似乎還沒有得到充分的重視。

We will do better to provide you with this information. Beyond all that I just mentioned on the capital allocation front, we have been repurchasing more shares over the last two years. In 2022, I believe the trend in our stock price started to significantly diverge from that of Markel Group's [intrinsic] value. In 2022 we were purchased $291 million of our shares. This was when I began speaking more openly about the business's intrinsic value growth. It's my duty to explain to our shareholders why we're using more of their capital for share repurchases.

我們將更好地向您提供這些資訊。除了我剛才提到的資本配置方面之外，過去兩年我們一直在回購更多股票。2022 年，我相信我們的股價趨勢開始與 Markel Group 的 [內在] 價值出現明顯分歧。2022 年，我們收購了價值 2.91 億美元的股票。從那時起，我開始更公開地談論企業的內在價值成長。我有責任向股東解釋為什麼我們要用更多的資本來回購股票。

We were purchased more shares in '23 and '24 totaling $445 million and $573 million respectively. An additional $2 billion in share repurchases several board members, managers, and I have also bought shares personally but what will ultimately close the GAAP between our stock price and intrinsic value as we see it. We will continue to focus on everything within our control. We will run our businesses at the highest levels and invest behind our winners where we are falling short, we will learn.

我們在 23 年和 24 年購買了更多股票，總額分別達到 4.45 億美元和 5.73 億美元。另外 20 億美元的股票回購，幾位董事會成員、經理人和我個人也購買了股票，但最終將使我們的股價和內在價值在 GAAP 上接近。我們將繼續專注於我們所能掌控的一切。我們將以最高水準經營我們的業務，並投資於我們的成功者，我們將在不足之處吸取教訓。

We will also strive to communicate more clearly, as the great Dr. Seuss once said, sometimes the questions are complicated, and the answers are simple. To that end, we simplified our intrinsic value calculation. At last year's annual letter to shareholders, I discussed the building blocks of Markel Group's intrinsic value. The framework we provided in our press release this morning takes those principles and simplifies them further.

我們也將努力進行更清晰的溝通，正如偉大的蘇斯博士曾經說過的，有時問題很複雜，而答案很簡單。為此，我們簡化了內在價值的計算。在去年致股東的年度信中，我討論了馬克爾集團內在價值的基石。我們今天早上在新聞稿中提供的框架採用了這些原則並進一步簡化了它們。

We provide this not as a fixed number, but to show how we begin to think about the intrinsic value growth of Markel Group. It's a starting point. I'd also encourage placing less stock in the precise number and more in the rate of change you can see over time when you calculate this consistently year after year. The record will show that the number has compounded at high rates over the last 5-years and since our IPO in 1,986. Our recent growth benefited from a period above average returns in our equity portfolio.

我們提供這個數字並不是一個固定的數字，而是為了展示我們如何開始思考 Markel Group 的內在價值成長。這是一個起點。我還鼓勵大家少關注精確的數字，多關注當你年復一年地持續計算時可以看到隨時間變化的變化率。記錄顯示，過去 5 年以及自 1986 年 IPO 以來，該數字一直以高速度增長。我們近期的成長受惠於股票投資組合在一段時間內高於平均水準的報酬。

We must improve our insurance results to reach our full potential in the next 5 years. We must also live our values, serve our customers, and communicate with our long-term partners who trust us with their capital. Just as the COGS and calls out, when it's time for the rowers to give it everything they've got, we know that it's time for us to make those ants fly.

我們必須提高我們的保險業績，才能在未來五年內充分發揮我們的潛力。我們也必須實踐我們的價值觀、服務我們的客戶、並與信任我們、將資本交給我們的長期合作夥伴進行溝通。正如 COGS 所呼籲的那樣，當划船者需要竭盡全力的時候，我們知道是時候讓那些螞蟻飛起來了。

Before I turn it over to Brian, I would like to welcome some new team members. In 2024, we welcomed two new businesses and their leaders, Valor and EPI to our team. Valor and environmental joined the family in June. Valor, founded by JJ Madado, and Kirk Foster, offers erosion control and stormwater management services. These are required for anyone moving dirt and water in the US.

在將任務交給 Brian 之前，我想歡迎一些新團隊成員。2024 年，我們歡迎兩家新企業及其領導者 Valor 和 EPI 加入我們的團隊。勇氣和環境在六月加入了這個大家庭。Valor 由 JJ Madado 和 Kirk Foster 創立，提供侵蝕控制和雨水管理服務。對於在美國運輸泥土和水的任何人來說，這些都是必需的。

JJ and Kirk, we found common ground in our shared values and focus on customer service. However, we could not formally and publicly welcome them at that time. To the pending nature of certain final regulatory approvals that were just recently received. We were happy to make things official in January. After a career as an educator. Deborah founded EPI, which sponsors an exchange visitor program for teachers. It serves school districts in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, US states. Welcome to Valor and the EPI.

JJ 和 Kirk，我們在共同的價值觀和對客戶服務的關注上找到了共同點。但當時我們無法正式公開地歡迎他們。對於最近剛收到的某些最終監管批准的待決性質。我們很高興能在一月正式公佈這項消息。曾從事教育工作者職業。黛博拉創立了 EPI，該計畫贊助教師交流訪客計畫。它為美國東南部和中大西洋地區的學區提供服務。歡迎來到 Valor 和 EPI。

For that, I'll turn the call over to Brian. We'll go through some of our financial numbers from 2024. He will then turn it over to Jeremy. We'll talk about performance in the insurance business. Brian.

為此，我將把電話轉給布萊恩。我們將回顧 2024 年的一些財務數據。然後他會將其交給傑里米。我們將討論保險業務的表現。布萊恩。

Thank you, Tom. Good morning, everyone. I will first review key metrics at the Markel Group level. Then I will share performance numbers for our insurance and ventures businesses plus our investment results.

謝謝你，湯姆。大家早安。我將先回顧 Markel Group 層面的關鍵指標。然後我將分享我們的保險和創投業務以及投資結果的績效數據。

At the group level, let me begin by talking a bit more, -- in a bit more detail about the intrinsic value that Tom mentioned. Before getting into the specific numbers, I'll offer you a surgeon General's warning for our simple approach. As Tom, suggested, we intentionally left our calculation at the 100-course level, simple and easy to follow, designed for ease of use and interpretation. It should be used with an awareness of its limitations, such as determining an appropriate multiple involves considering many factors. We just picked one that seemed reasonably conservative.

在團隊層面，我首先要更詳細地談談湯姆提到的內在價值。在討論具體數字之前，我想先給大家提供一位衛生局局長的警告，提醒我們採取簡單的方法。正如湯姆所建議的，我們有意將計算留在 100 道菜的水平，簡單易懂，易於使用和解釋。使用時應注意其局限性，例如確定合適的倍數需要考慮許多因素。我們只是選擇了一個看起來相當保守的。

12 times is not the multiple we would pay for a business, nor would we consider buying a business for less than 12 times to be automatically accreted to intrinsic value. Items that are one time in nature have not been adjusted for, such as disposal gains or losses. The value of equities is a snapshot in time as of the end of each year, and the world is dynamic. Like commercials that you would see for medications, using this formula as a precise measure could cause dizziness, headaches, tunnel vision, or other side effects.

12 倍並不是我們願意為一家企業支付的倍數，我們也不會考慮以低於 12 倍的價格購買一家企業並自動增加其內在價值。一次性項目尚未調整，例如處置收益或損失。股票價值是每年年底的一個快照，而世界是動態的。就像您看到的藥物廣告一樣，使用此配方作為精確測量可能會導致頭暈、頭痛、視野狹窄或其他副作用。

You get the point, and I could go on and on with those like they tend to at the end of those commercials and actually spend more time with that than purpose of the calculation is but I think that makes the illustration. Recognizing these limitations of the approach, we believe that our simplified method provides an annual insight into how we think about value creation when viewed over longer time periods. Details of our intrinsic value calculation can be found in the back of this morning's press release.

你明白我的意思，我可以繼續討論這些，就像他們在那些商業廣告結尾​​處傾向於討論的那樣，實際上我花在這上面的時間比計算的目的還要多，但我認為這說明了一切。認識到該方法的這些局限性，我們相信，我們的簡化方法可以提供年度洞察，讓我們了解在較長時間段內我們如何看待價值創造。我們的內在價值計算的詳細資訊可以在今天上午的新聞稿中找到。

Using our intrinsic value calculation and taking a 5 year view, Markel Group's intrinsic value compounded at 18.3% over the last five years. This is compared to total shareholder return over the same period, growing at 8.6%, highlighting the GAAP that Tom, mentioned previously. At the beginning of 2024, we began reporting our operating income for investments, ventures, insurance, and on a consolidated basis. Operating income is a key driver of intrinsic value and our long-term incentives. If you must pick one metric for our scorecard, operating income is a good place to start.

根據我們的內在價值計算並以 5 年期視角來看，Markel Group 的內在價值在過去五年中複合成長率為 18.3%。相比之下，同期的股東總回報率增加了 8.6%，凸顯了湯姆之前提到的 GAAP。從 2024 年初開始報告投資、企業、保險和合併報表的營業收入。營業收入是內在價值和長期激勵的關鍵驅動因素。如果您必須為我們的記分卡選擇一個指標，那麼營業收入是一個很好的起點。

Markel Group's operating income was $3.7 billion in 2024, up from $2.9 billion in 2023. As Tom, noted, the largest contributor to operating income was unrealized gains in our equity portfolio. Breaking down our operating income by engine. Insurance operating income was $601 million for the year and $143 million in the fourth quarter. Insurance operating income includes our global underwriting profits, along with fee-based income from Nephila and State national.

Markel Group 的營業收入從 2023 年的 29 億美元成長至 2024 年的 37 億美元。正如湯姆所指出的，營業收入的最大貢獻者是我們股票投資組合中的未實現收益。按引擎細分我們的營業收入。全年保險營業收入為 6.01 億美元，第四季為 1.43 億美元。保險營業收入包括我們的全球承保利潤，以及來自 Nephila 和 State national 的收費收入。

Investments operating income was $2.8 billion for the year and $367 million in the fourth quarter. Our annual investment operating income further breaks down at $913 million of recurring net investment income, $1.8 billion of net investment gains, largely from the mark on our equity portfolio, and $52 million of earnings from equity method investments. Ventures operating income across our 21 businesses was $520 million for the year and $132 million in the fourth quarter.

全年投資營業收入為 28 億美元，第四季投資營業收入為 3.67 億美元。我們的年度投資營業收入進一步細分為 9.13 億美元的經常性淨投資收入、18 億美元的投資淨收益（主要來自我們的股票投資組合）以及 5,200 萬美元的權益法投資收益。我們 21 家企業的創投營業收入全年為 5.2 億美元，第四季為 1.32 億美元。

The beauty of the Markel Group system lies in the fact that these diversified streams produce a river of cash flow. Operating income is generally convertible into cash that can be redeployed. Growth in insurance premiums and the time lag of paying reserves also generates cash, further fueling reinvestment. This growth generates future operating cash flows all in a cost and tax efficient manner.

Markel Group 系統的優點在於，這些多樣化的資金流產生了現金流之河。營業收入通常可以轉換成可重新部署的現金。保險費的成長和繳納準備金的時間落後也會產生現金，進一步刺激再投資。這種成長以成本和稅收高效的方式產生未來的營運現金流。

Our total cash flows from operating activities in 2024 totaled $2.6 billion driven largely by our insurance engine. Moving to our insurance operations, in insurance, we serve our customers through specialized underwriting, building lasting partnerships with our distribution partners, focusing on the long term, our strong balance sheet, and maximizing our people powered culture. First, a comment about the natural catastrophe losses. During 2024, we incurred $71 million, or just under 1 point of losses related to Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton.

我們 2024 年的營運活動現金流總額為 26 億美元，主要由我們的保險引擎推動。談到我們的保險業務，在保險方面，我們透過專業承保為客戶提供服務，與我們的分銷夥伴建立持久的合作夥伴關係，著眼於長期發展，擁有強勁的資產負債表，並最大限度地發揮我們的以人為本的文化。首先，關於自然災害損失的評論。2024 年，我們遭受了 7,100 萬美元的損失，或與颶風海倫和颶風米爾頓相關的損失略低於 1%。

These losses have come down from our original estimates and are well within our expectations for events of this size. Further, while it is still early days for the California wildfires, we disclosed an estimated $90 million to $130 million dollar impact on our first quarter of 2025 results. This estimate is inclusive of losses and reinstatement premiums across our global underwriting operations. This range includes no provision for potential salvage and subrogation recoveries, and we have minimal premiums subject to the California fair plan.

這些損失已低於我們最初的估計，並且完全符合我們對此類規模事件的預期。此外，雖然加州山火還處於早期階段，但我們披露，山火將對我們 2025 年第一季的業績造成約 9,000 萬至 1.3 億美元的影響。這項估計金額包括了我們全球承保業務的損失和恢復保費。此範圍不包括潛在的打撈和代位追償的準備金，而且我們的保費最低，須遵守加州公平計劃。

While several of our first party product lines will have losses. Our largest impact is in our international fine arts and specie book. Overall, our underwriting teams have done an excellent job of minimizing our exposure to wildfire losses. Which largely represents our specialty and international divisions. Gross written premium was $9.4 billion and net earned premium was $7.4 billion in 2024, each representing a 2% increase from a year ago.

雖然我們的幾條第一方產品線將會遭受損失。我們最大的影響力在於我們的國際美術和硬幣書籍。總體而言，我們的核保團隊在最大限度減少野火損失方面做得非常出色。這在很大程度上代表了我們的專業和國際分工。2024 年毛承保保費為 94 億美元，淨賺保費為 74 億美元，較去年同期成長 2%。

Insurance premiums grew despite numerous portfolio actions that reduced premiums in our US casualty and risk managed professional lines taken to improve the balance of the portfolio. The combined ratio was 94.3% versus 97.8% in 2023. An improvement of 3.5 points driven by higher prior accidents in your loss takedowns and our underwriting actions starting to earn through with more benefits from these actions expected in 2025 and beyond.

儘管我們採取了多項措施降低美國意外險和風險管理專業險的保費以改善投資組合的平衡，但保費仍然增長。綜合比率為 94.3%，而 2023 年為 97.8%。3.5 個百分點的改善是由於您損失記錄中先前發生的事故增多，以及我們的承保行動開始發揮作用，預計在 2025 年及以後將從這些行動中獲得更多收益。

Our current acts in year loss ratio was 64.4% in both 2024 and 2023. Prior year loss development was 6.1 points favorable in 2024 versus 1.4 points favorable in 2023 due to actions taken in 2023 to strengthen reserves in our casualty portfolio and prior higher prior year loss takedowns this year in our international portfolio. The expense ratio was 36% in 2024 versus 35% in 2023, with the 1 point increase driven by the decline in earned premiums in the US from the underwriting actions and changes in our professional liability reinsurance structure.

我們目前的年度損失率在 2024 年和 2023 年均為 64.4%。2024 年上年損失發展有利 6.1 個百分點，而 2023 年則有利 1.4 個百分點，原因是 2023 年採取了措施加強了我們的傷亡組合中的準備金，並且今年我們的國際組合中上年損失減少幅度更高。2024 年的費用率為 36%，而 2023 年的費用率為 35%，其中 1 個百分點的增加是由於承保行動導緻美國已賺保費下降以及我們的專業責任再保險結構變化所致。

A higher operating expense ratio in our international operations to support investment and growth initiatives. Our exited Collateral Protection Insurance product line, or CPI, added 2.3 points on the insurance segment results this year versus 1.3 points last year. We expect the impact of CPI losses on our results to decrease in 2025. Jeremy, will speak later about what we've done this past year and are further doing in 2025 to improve the long-term results within our US specialty business.

我們國際業務的營業費用率更高，以支持投資和成長計劃。我們退出的抵押品保障保險產品線（CPI）今年為保險部門業績增添了 2.3 個百分點，而去年則為 1.3 個百分點。我們預計，2025 年 CPI 損失對我們業績的影響將會減少。傑里米稍後會談到我們在過去一年所做的工作以及 2025 年為改善美國專業業務的長期業績而採取的進一步措施。

Moving to our reinsurance segment, reinsurance underwriting process that continues to trail our targets with a combined ratio of 101 for the year. Higher nutritional loss ratios in our professional and general liability products drove this. We also had some large individual losses within our credit and surety products. Our prior year loss ratio was slightly favorable this year and we had $34 million or 3 points of adverse development this year from our recently discontinued public entity product line.

轉向我們的再保險部門，再保險核保流程繼續落後於我們的目標，今年的綜合比率為 101。我們的專業和一般責任產品中營養損失率較高導致了這種情況。我們的信貸和擔保產品中也有一些個人巨額損失。我們去年的損失率今年略有改善，而我們最近停止生產的公共實體產品線今年帶來了 3,400 萬美元或 3 個點的不利發展。

Turning next to our program, services, and ILS businesses, AKA State National and Nafia. In 2024, State National had strong, consistent performance with operating profits of $122 million and Nafia produced operating income of $41 million a bit lower than last year. However, the 2023 results included $31 million in one-time fee income related to releasing capital from side pockets.

接下來介紹我們的計劃、服務和 ILS 業務，又稱為 State National 和 Nafia。2024年，State National 表現強勁、穩定，營業利潤達 1.22 億美元，Nafia 營業收入為 4,100 萬美元，略低於去年。然而，2023 年的業績包括與釋放側袋資本相關的 3,100 萬美元一次性費用收入。

Turning next to our results from Marco Ventures. In ventures, our operating businesses are autonomous and accountable. We use equity capital to acquire our family of businesses while promoting a long-term focus and our shared set of values. We see companies with lasting competitive advantages within certain of our businesses, cycles will and do occur we price that into our underwriting. As to our 2024 revenues, total revenues exceeded $5 billion for the first time in our history, experiencing year-over-year growth of 3%.

接下來我們來看看 Marco Ventures 的研究結果。在合資企業中，我們的經營業務是自主且負責的。我們利用股本資本收購我們的企業家族，同時提倡長期關注和共同的價值觀。我們看到某些業務領域內具有持久競爭優勢的公司，週期將會發生，我們將其計入承保價格中。至於我們的 2024 年收入，總收入將首次超過 50 億美元，較去年同期成長 3%。

Our consumer and building products businesses drove the majority of ventures growth while transportation-related businesses took a step back. As context, transportation related demand has been very strong since the first half of 2020, providing a tailwind for our market leading businesses in this sector the past few years. Historically, these businesses typically experience 5 years to 10 year cycles with the rising need for transportation equipment and predictable replacement cycles fueling growth from one cycle to the next.

我們的消費品和建築產品業務推動了大部分企業的成長，而運輸相關業務則有所退步。作為背景，自 2020 年上半年以來，與運輸相關的需求一直非常強勁，為我們過去幾年在該領域的市場領先業務提供了順風。從歷史上看，這些業務通常經歷 5 年到 10 年的周期，對運輸設備的需求不斷增長，可預測的更換週期推動著從一個週期到下一個週期的成長。

So while revenues have come down from the high points of the cycle, these are businesses that particularly benefit from our long-term high equity capital approach. Additionally, our construction services businesses, our largest grouping by total revenues, saw deceleration in growth this year compared to last with flat year-over-year revenue growth when excluding the addition of valor in June. Like transportation-related markets, demand for construction services was particularly strong post-COVID.

因此，雖然收入已從週期的高點回落，但這些企業尤其受益於我們的長期高股本資本方法。此外，我們的建築服務業務（按總收入計算，我們最大的業務組合）今年的增長與去年相比有所放緩，若不包括 6 月份增加的勇氣，收入同比增長持平。與交通相關市場一樣，疫情過後對建築服務的需求特別強勁。

Although elevated interest rates present a challenge for construction activity in this economic climate, we consider flat reoccurring revenue growth to be a solid result for this group. Venture's operating income was $520 million for the year. Within both our equipment, manufacturing, and consumer and building products businesses strong revenue growth drove even stronger operating income growth over the past two years.

儘管在當前的經濟環境下，利率上升對建築活動構成了挑戰，但我們認為平穩的經常性收入成長對該集團而言是一個穩健的表現。Venture 全年營業收入為 5.2 億美元。在我們的設備、製造、消費和建築產品業務中，強勁的收入成長在過去兩年中推動了更強勁的營業收入成長。

Although we noted that revenues across all of our construction services businesses were flat, excluding valor, the construction services operating margins did decline slightly. Now moving over to our investments through our public equity portfolio, we own interest in many of the best businesses in the world. We seek out profitable businesses with good returns on capital, management teams with integrity and talent, and companies that have attractive reinvestment opportunities and are available at reasonable valuations.

雖然我們注意到，除價值稅外，我們所有建築服務業務的收入都持平，但建築服務營業利潤率確實略有下降。現在我們透過公共股權投資組合進行投資，我們擁有世界上許多最佳企業的權益。我們尋找具有良好資本回報率的盈利企業、誠信且有才華的管理團隊以及具有有吸引力的再投資機會且估值合理的公司。

Our equity portfolio earned a 20.1% return included in our 2024 operating income. The equity portfolio averaged a compound annual growth rate of 14.3% over the last five years. We don't expect these returns to be repeated in the next five years, but we're pleased with our portfolio, it has and should compound capital and attractive rates over long periods.

我們的股票投資組合獲得了 20.1% 的回報，計入我們的 2024 年營業收入。過去五年，股票投資組合的平均年複合成長率為 14.3%。我們預計未來五年內不會重複這些回報，但我們對我們的投資組合感到滿意，它已經並且應該在長期內增加資本和有吸引力的利率。

Net investment income was $920 million in 2024 versus $735 million last year. For 2024, our fixed income book yield was 3.2%. In the fourth quarter, we continued to add new fixed income investments at higher yields, approximately 4.4%, versus maturing bonds at approximately 3.6%. 98% of our bond portfolio was held in fixed income securities that are rated AA or better.

2024 年淨投資收入為 9.2 億美元，去年為 7.35 億美元。2024 年，我們的固定收益帳面收益率為 3.2%。第四季度，我們繼續增加新的固定收益投資，收益率較高，約為 4.4%，而到期債券的收益率約為 3.6%。我們的債券投資組合中有 98% 是 AA 級或更高評級的固定收益證券。

Now we'll turn it over to Jeremy, who will provide more commentary on insurance.

現在我們將話題交給傑里米，他將對保險提供更多評論。

Great, thanks, Brian, and hello, everyone.

太好了，謝謝你，布萊恩，大家好。

I'd like to begin by adding my thanks to the efforts of my teammates in 2024. As was mentioned earlier, we have many areas across the business that are performing exceptionally well. This year we saw continued strong performance in our international and state national operations. Both grew while achieving profitability levels above our targets. We are investing in these businesses to support their long-term growth. Within our specialty business, our personal lines, property programs, commercial professional liability products, and most of our small commercial offerings also exceeded our targets.

首先，我要感謝我的隊友在 2024 年的努力。正如前面提到的，我們業務的許多領域都表現得非常出色。今年我們的國際和國內業務持續表現強勁。兩家公司均實現了成長，並且實現了高於我們目標的獲利水準。我們正在投資這些企業以支持它們的長期成長。在我們的專業業務中，我們的個人險、財產保險計劃、商業專業責任產品以及大多數小型商業產品也超出了我們的目標。

We continue to drive profitable growth in these areas. These lines represented over half of our gross written premiums in 2024. As we have noted, underperformance in our US casualty and risk managed professional liability books weighed on our results, and as a result, our overall US specialty business fell short of our expectations. We have taken numerous actions during 2024.

我們將繼續推動這些領域的獲利成長。這些險種占我們 2024 年毛承保保費的一半以上。正如我們所指出的，美國意外險和風險管理專業責任險的表現不佳對我們的業績造成了壓力，因此，我們的整體美國專業業務未能達到我們的預期。我們在 2024 年採取了許多行動。

First, early last year, we exited several product lines, including primary casualty retail, business owners' policy, risk managed access construction, risk managed architects and engineers, and collateral protection insurance. These exits were creative to our 2024 results and will be further creative in 2025. Second, we took more than 100 underwriting actions across our portfolio, including meaningfully reducing the construction mix in our casualty portfolio, changing terms and conditions to eliminate certain exposures to subcontractors, reducing limits on excess lines, and implementing premium caps in challenging states.

首先，去年年初，我們退出了幾條產品線，包括主要傷亡零售、企業主保險、風險管理准入建設、風險管理建築師和工程師以及抵押品保護保險。這些退出對我們 2024 年的業績具有創造性，並將在 2025 年進一步發揮創造力。其次，我們在整個投資組合中採取了 100 多項承保行動，包括大幅減少意外險投資組合中的建築險組合、改變條款和條件以消除對分包商的某些風險敞口、降低超額險種的限制以及在具有挑戰性的州實施保費上限。

Achieving double digit rate increases across the cash portfolio while walking away from risks that were not adequately priced and terminating certain underperforming programs. In risk managed professional liability products, non-renewing business, contracting limits, and improving portfolio mix through segmentation in And our most challenged class, US public DNO, we recently announced further actions to move to a single access point for public DNO and large financial institutions coverage based in Bermuda.

實現現金投資組合的兩位數利率成長，同時規避那些未充分定價的風險並終止某些表現不佳的項目。在風險管理專業責任產品、非續保業務、收縮限額以及透過細分改善投資組合組合方面，以及我們最具挑戰性的類別美國公共 DNO，我們最近宣布採取進一步行動，將公共 DNO 和大型金融機構覆蓋範圍轉移到位於百慕達的單一接入點。

In total, these actions, in addition to the exits mentioned in my first point, resulted in a reduction to gross written premiums of over $350 million in 2024, but it should be accretive to net income. Third, we bolster our reserves by increasing our overall level of conservatism on the current accident year by approximately 2 points, which roughly offset the benefits from our underwriting actions earned in 2024. By adding a margin of safety to our current reserves, we increase the likelihood of greater prior year redundancies in future periods.

總的來說，這些行動加上我在第一點中提到的退出，導致 2024 年的毛承保保費減少超過 3.5 億美元，但這應該會增加淨收入。第三，我們透過將目前事故年度的整體保守程度提高約 2 個百分點來增強我們的儲備金，這大致抵消了我們在 2024 年承保行動中獲得的收益。透過在我們現有的儲備上增加安全邊際，我們增加了未來時期更大程度地裁減上一年員工的可能性。

Over the past 14 months, we appointed a new President of our specialty division and added a new divisional Chief Underwriting Officer, COO, CIO, and CFO to complement our product and field leaders. And fifth, we made progress on our multi-year effort to improve our technology. We are investing heavily to make it easier and more exciting to do business with us and improve the customer experience by enhancing our underwriting and claims processes.

在過去的 14 個月中，我們任命了一位新的專業部門總裁，並增加了一位新的部門首席承保官、首席營運官、首席資訊長和首席財務官，以補充我們的產品和現場領導。第五，我們多年努力的技術改進取得了進展。我們正在投入大量資金，使與我們開展業務變得更加容易和令人興奮，並透過增強核保和索賠流程來改善客戶體驗。

We will give our underwriting, claims, and actuarial teams richer data. These investments will help us make better decisions, find insights faster, and improve efficiency. As Tom, alluded to earlier, what tangible signposts and what does success look like and how long will it take? While we strive to provide perspective on these important questions as we progress, let me say today, our combined ratio of 95.2% is still higher than it should be. We expect our actions to drive the underlying combined ratio lower in 25% and even more so beyond.

我們將為核保、索賠和精算團隊提供更豐富的數據。這些投資將幫助我們做出更好的決策，更快找到見解，並提高效率。正如湯姆之前提到的，有什麼切實的路標？雖然我們不斷進步，力求對這些重要問題提供見解，但今天我要說的是，我們的綜合比率為 95.2%，仍然高於應有的水平。我們預計，我們的行動將使基礎綜合比率降低 25% 甚至更多。

Prior your takedowns in 2024 were 5.4%, a great improvement, but still not at our longer-term average of 68 points. Finally, we recently announced the Guidewire claims module, an important next step in the modern in the modernizing of our US-based technology architecture, which will significantly improve our claims handling experience and over time our operating efficiency. This is progress, but we are not stopping there. We acknowledge that we still have work to do with underwriting actions, technology investments, and operating efficiency enhancements. We are committed to long-term success.

此前，您在 2024 年的擊倒率為 5.4%，這是一個很大的進步，但仍然沒有達到我們長期的平均 68 分。最後，我們最近宣布了 Guidewire 索賠模組，這是我們美國技術架構現代化的重要下一步，它將顯著改善我們的索賠處理經驗，並隨著時間的推移提高我們的營運效率。這是進步，但我們不會就此止步。我們承認，我們在承保行動、技術投資和營運效率提高方面仍有工作要做。我們致力於長期的成功。

Before concluding, I'd be remiss if I didn't highlight the excellent performance of Markel International, which in 2024 delivered a sub 80 combined ratio with strong growth while making notable investments in new products and markets. Well done team. Thank you to the entire insurance team for improving our business in 2024. All the fruits of all our labors. To that, I'd say stay tuned.

最後，如果我不強調 Markel International 的出色表現，那我就太失職了，該公司在 2024 年實現了低於 80 的綜合成本率和強勁的增長，同時在新產品和新市場進行了顯著投資。團隊做得好。感謝整個保險團隊在 2024 年對我們業務的提升。這是我們一切勞動的成果。對此，我想說請繼續關注。

We are excited by our long-term prospects. We look forward to updating you on our progress in the coming quarters and years. With that, I'll pass it back to Tom.

我們對我們的長期前景感到興奮。我們期待在未來幾季和幾年向您通報我們的進展。說完這些，我就交還給湯姆。

Continued growth adventures and notable performance in many areas of our insurance business, all while staying true to our values and striving for excellence. Over the past two years, Markel Group has made significant strides. As we continue to build on this progress, we are committed to enhancing our insurance operating performance and driving profitable growth across our family of businesses. We're excited for 2025 and the work ahead and to continue winning for shareholders, customers, and associates. Mike Keaton, the CLO of Markel Group, will also join me. I'm Brian in the room to take your questions, operator.

我們在保險業務的許多領域持續發展並取得顯著業績，同時堅守我們的價值觀並追求卓越。在過去的兩年裡，Markel Group 取得了長足的進步。在繼續鞏固這一進步的同時，我們致力於提高我們的保險經營業績，推動整個業務系列的獲利成長。我們對 2025 年和未來的工作感到興奮，並將繼續為股東、客戶和同事贏得勝利。Markel Group 的首席法律長 Mike Keaton 也將與我一起參加。我是布萊恩，接線員，現在來回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Yeah, thank you. Good morning. This may venture in some the feedback you received on the, business. How much do you feel like with the structure just the all the different components of what you do as opposed to execution, just how successful you've been on on operating in that structure.

是的，謝謝。早安.這可能會影響您在業務上收到的一些回饋。您覺得這種結構有多大程度上包括了您所做的工作的所有不同組成部分而不是執行，您在這種結構下運作有多成功。

And Mark, that it's really a mix of both. So I think in terms of the structure, the issue is sometimes people have suggested that they can't understand or the clarity is not what it should be, and they would like things to be presented in a different way and more clarity. And I think the press release that we put out today in the fourth quarter result, just the whole package is our first pass at trying to address that.

馬克，這其實是兩者的結合。因此，我認為就結構而言，問題有時在於人們表示他們無法理解或清晰度不夠，他們希望以不同的方式、更清晰的方式呈現事物。我認為，我們今天發布的有關第四季度業績的新聞稿以及整個方案是我們嘗試解決這一問題的第一步。

Secondly, in terms of execution, we, -- we've publicly said for a while now that we've had some challenges, particularly in the insurance business and there are areas where we can and should do better. So we're we're continuing that theme and continuing to do the hard work of delivering and executing on those businesses, but it's a combination of both.

其次，在執行方面，我們已經公開表示過一段時間了，我們遇到了一些挑戰，特別是在保險業務方面，有些領域我們可以而且應該做得更好。因此，我們將繼續這個主題，繼續努力地實現和執行這些業務，但這是兩者的結合。

Understood. When we think about the intrinsic value calculation for MarKel Ventures, how does that compare to the carrying value, and I apologize if it's, I could pull it out of a relief, but just curious whether you can give a sense of that.

明白了。當我們考慮 MarKel Ventures 的內在價值計算時，它與帳面價值相比如何，如果是的話，我很抱歉，我可以鬆一口氣，但只是好奇你是否可以給出一種感覺。

Yes, in very general terms, it would be more. So again, part of the way in which we're laying out some of the pieces of the intrinsic value is again to to address the rate of change and value that happens over time. So it's not the single point estimate it's having a methodology that you can repeat and do year after year after year after year. And because GAAP accounting has sort of different approaches of how it would recognize things that happen inside a financial business such as insurance compared to a non-financial business such as those that comprise ventures.

是的，從一般意義上來說，會更多。因此，我們再次列出內在價值的某些部分的方式是為了解決隨時間推移的變化率和價值。因此，它不是一個單點估計，而是一種可以年復一年重複執行的方法。因為 GAAP 會計對於識別金融業務（例如保險）內部發生的事情的方法與非金融業務（例如由企業組成的業務）內部發生的事情的方法有所不同。

This is the way that I as a fellow owner of Markel, think about the economic progress of the Markel group over time. And and we've been talking, this is not new, we've been talking about this in the annual report that the last Couple of years. So it's not about the point estimate. It's about having a consistent methodology that you do year by year by year try to amplify and clarify what GAAP accounting might suggest in order to get the real economics of what's happening in the business.

這是我作為 Markel 的共同所有者對 Markel 集團隨著時間的推移所取得的經濟發展的看法。我們一直在談論，這並不是什麼新鮮事，我們在過去幾年的年度報告中也一直在談論這個問題。所以這與點估計無關。這是關於擁有一個一致的方法，你年復一年地嘗試擴大和澄清 GAAP 會計可能建議的內容，以便了解業務中正在發生的真實經濟情況。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah, also not a 5-component metric, it's really just taking the whole thing as a whole. So your question about ventures specifically, I mean, in fact what you've got is a bit of a blended multiple of many different streams of.

是的，這也不是 5 組分度量，它實際上只是將整個事物作為一個整體。所以你關於企業的問題具體來說，我的意思是，事實上你所得到的是許多不同流的混合體。

Of. Okay. And then when we think about top line opportunities, say within the insurance segment, you, you've made a lot of progress in your underwriting. I think you had some favorable development on 2024 within some of the casualty lines maybe GL if I properly. Is it time to, start growing again in 2025, or is there an opportunity to grow the top line? How should we think about the outlook here?

的。好的。然後，當我們考慮營收機會時，例如在保險領域，您在承保方面已經取得了很大進展。我認為，2024 年，在一些傷亡線上，你取得了一些有利的進展，如果我沒記錯的話，也許是 GL。是不是應該在 2025 年再次開始成長，或者還有機會提高營收？我們該如何看待這裡的前景？

Yeah, I'll let Brian comment about the specifics of the numbers there, but in terms of growth, when we execute our business well, growth seems to follow, and profitable growth is what we're emphasizing around here. That's first and foremost and again, we think in longer term time frames around here, 5 years at a time is the way we calculate our and there hasn't been any 5 year period that I'm aware of that we were doing less business than what we did the 5 year chunk before that, right.

是的，我會讓布萊恩對那裡的數位具體情況發表評論，但就成長而言，當我們很好地執行我們的業務時，成長似乎就會隨之而來，而盈利性成長正是我們在這裡強調的。這是首要的，我們再次考慮從較長的時間範圍來看，我們以 5 年為一個時間段來計算，據我所知，沒有哪個 5 年期間我們的業務量比之前 5 年少，對吧。

It's Jeremy. I'll add to that just to say the key for us, as Tom, was alluding to is just getting on the other side of those corrective actions as we kind of mentioned in some of the prepared remarks, we have been seeing and we are growing across a number of product areas both in the US and internationally. The good news is we've managed to offset all of the reductions in premium volume that we experienced over the year. Those continued reductions where we're taking underwriting actions that will continue to play out a little bit in '25, and we should get to more normalized growth levels over time once we get on the other side of that corrective action.

是傑里米。我要補充一點，正如湯姆所暗示的，對我們來說，關鍵就是採取這些糾正措施，正如我們在一些準備好的評論中提到的那樣，我們已經看到，我們在美國和國際上的多個產品領域都在增長。好消息是我們已經成功抵消了去年經歷的保費減少的所有影響。我們採取的核保行動將繼續減少成本，這些措施將在 25 年繼續發揮作用，一旦我們完成糾正措施，我們就應該隨著時間的推移達到更正常的成長水平。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Securities.

道明證券 (TD Securities) 的安德魯‧克利格曼 (Andrew Kligerman)。

Hey, good morning. Kind of curious, you had 5.2% points of favorable prior year development. Could you share with us, the geography of that prior year development and I'm most interested in the casualty side because I know that's been a rough line for you. Could you talk about whether that piece casualty was favorable or unfavorable and to what degree and what underwriting year?

嘿，早安。有點好奇，你們去年的有利發展率為 5.2%。您能否與我們分享去年發展的地理位置？ 我最感興趣的是傷亡方面，因為我知道這對您來說是一個艱難的決定。您能否談談該筆傷亡是有利的還是不利的、有利的程度以及承保年份是多少？

I'll let Brian and Jeremy chime in on the specific way to answer that question, but I do want to reiterate, getting back to the fundamental principles and the fundamental values of the Markel Group, we have from day one always wanted our reserves to be more likely to be redundant than deficient, and I think you could just randomly ask any person in this building in any Markel office anywhere in the world, and they would tell you that almost world for word, that is drilled into our culture.

我會讓布萊恩和傑里米來談談如何具體回答這個問題，但我確實想重申，回到馬克爾集團的基本原則和基本價值觀，從第一天起，我們就一直希望我們的儲備更有可能是多餘的，而不是不足的，我想你可以隨意問世界上任何地方的馬克爾辦公室裡這棟樓裡的任何人，他們全世界都會告訴你，幾乎植根於我們的文化中已經植根於我們的文化中。

So we're glad to be back this year reporting something that has way more redundancy than it did last year and it's getting back to our historical level of conservative, -- conservatism and reserve development in a positive way.

因此，我們很高興今年能夠報告比去年冗餘度更大的事情，並且它正在以積極的方式回到我們的歷史保守水平——保守主義和儲備發展。

Yeah, I'd say generally speaking, last year we hit the casualty really hard. So if you look at year-over-year, adverse development in casualty this year fairly flat in the casualty on a net basis. So those actions have largely held up throughout the year on a net basis. Within professional, it's kind of a mixed story on the international side, we had takedowns here. That business is a lot different than the business we were talking about in the. US, so that that was a catalyst to takedowns this year.

是的，我想說，總體來說，去年我們的損失確實很嚴重。因此，如果與去年同期相比，今年的傷亡事故發生率出現不利發展，在淨傷亡事故中，傷亡事故發生率基本上持平。因此，從淨值來看，這些舉措全年基本上都維持了下去。在專業方面，國際方面的情況有點複雜，我們在這裡也遇到一些挫折。這項業務與我們談論的業務有很大不同。美國，所以這成為今年拆除行動的催化劑。

We did have some adverse development on the US DNO line the risk manage lines that we were talking about earlier. But overall, the 5 points, like Jeremy, said, that's closer to our normal run rate with kind of the way in which we do reserving. So we have kind of a natural embedded kind of takedown in the way we do our reserving, and that's kind of what you're seeing come through the results this year.

我們之前談到的美國 DNO 線路風險管理線路確實出現了一些不利的發展。但總體而言，就像傑里米所說的那樣，這 5 點更接近我們正常的運行率以及我們進行儲備的方式。因此，我們在進行儲備的方式中自然而然地嵌入了一種削減策略，這就是您今年所看到的結果。

Got it. And any of the casualty, in any of the negative adverse casualty in recent underwriting years?

知道了。在最近幾年的承保中，有任何損失或不利傷亡嗎？

Yeah, so what I would say there is we've got a close eye on that. We have been increasing slightly there on a gross basis, the downside on a net basis there. So overall it's relatively flat.

是的，我想說的是，我們會密切注意這一點。從總量上看，我們的成長速度略有加快，但從淨額上看，我們的成長速度有所下降。因此整體來說相對平穩。

Got it. That's super helpful. And it is kind of interesting how you're kind of, it seems like you're moving your mix more to short tail lines. So last year, for net and premium general liability was 29% and professional, and last year meaning 2023, and professional was 25%. Has that mix changed? Is it materially more short tail has GL and professional.

知道了。這非常有幫助。有趣的是，你似乎正在將你的混合更多地轉向短尾線。因此，去年，淨責任和保費一般責任為 29%，專業責任為 29%，而去年（即 2023 年）專業責任為 25%。其混合形式有改變嗎？從本質上講，它的短尾更具有 GL 和專業性。

Andrew's, this is Jeremy. I would not say the mix has changed materially. We, -- as you pointed to, we've historically been more concentrated in longer tail lines and even with taking some corrective actions in areas like our US general liability and professional liability spaces, we're still weighted more in that space. So look, we're trying each of our Over 100 major product lines to write in the market that's most attractive where we feel we can deploy capital and earn appropriate returns, and we don't sort of necessarily think about just long tail versus shorter tail so it's a little bit of a mixed story in that space but nothing material.

安德魯，這是傑瑞米。我不會說這種組合發生了實質的改變。正如您所指出的，我們歷來更加專注於較長的尾線，即使在美國一般責任和專業責任等領域採取了一些糾正措施，我們仍然在該領域佔有更大的比重。所以看，我們正在嘗試將我們的 100 多個主要產品線中的每一個都投入到最具吸引力的市場中，我們認為我們可以在其中部署資本並獲得適當的回報，而且我們不一定只考慮長尾與短尾，所以這在那個領域有點混合，但沒有什麼實質性的。

Got it. I'll hop back into the queue so others can ask questions.

知道了。我會重新回到隊列，以便其他人可以提問。

Andrew Anderson, Jeffries.

安德魯安德森，杰弗里斯。

Hey, good morning. Sounds like some pretty strong results on the international side of the house. Can you just remind us what percentage of the insurance segment is that? And I guess the reason I'm asking is if we look at some, large account skewed surveys, it seems to indicate international pricing is kind of going negative. Perhaps you could talk about what you're seeing in your international business in terms of rate.

嘿，早安。聽起來國際方面取得了相當強勁的成績。您能否提醒我們一下這佔保險部門的百分比是多少？我之所以問這個問題，是因為如果我們看一些大型帳戶扭曲調查，似乎就會發現國際定價有點走向負面。也許您可以談談您在國際業務中看到的利率情況。

Hey, and it's Jeremy. So international rough, call it a third, and 2/3 would be sort of the US insurance. You're right in pointing out that in the international space, and again if you think about that, we've got a large London market wholesale business where we write a lot of specialty lines, and then we really have our regional presence Asia Pacific. So trends and dynamics in those local markets can change a little bit.

嘿，我是傑瑞米。因此，國際毛坯鑽石被稱為三分之一，而三分之二則相當於美國保險。您指出國際領域的情況非常正確，如果您再想想，我們在倫敦市場擁有大型批發業務，生產許多專業產品，而且我們在亞太地區也有區域業務。因此這些本地市場的趨勢和動態可能會發生一些變化。

In the London market. Space to your point, it's it's been a little bit of a transitioning market prices are coming off of where they've been, and in some places they're modestly flat to down or only up slightly. However, that's off a very attractive level, I think, of rate adequacy. So we're monitoring that, but that business is performing very strong to your point in recent years.

在倫敦市場。正如您所說，現在正處於一個過渡期，市場價格正在從原來的水平回落，在某些地方，價格略有持平、下降或僅略有上漲。然而，我認為，這是一個非常有吸引力的利率充足水準。所以我們正在監控這一點，但正如您所說，這項業務近年來表現非常強勁。

Thanks and maybe just keeping on pricing. I think I heard you say double digit rate increases across casualty portfolio. I'm assuming that's US casualty, but maybe you could just give us some more color on what the US portion is seeing in terms of rate and whether that's above lost trend.

謝謝，也許只是繼續定價。我想我聽到您說過意外險組合的費率將出現兩位數的增長。我認為這是美國的損失，但也許您可以給我們一些關於美國部分的比例情況以及是否高於失去的趨勢的資訊。

Yeah, sure. And again it's Jeremy, and you're right. So casualty pricing has been one of the stronger areas in the portfolio and really, we saw the pricing being pretty strong over the course of '24 that continued to be the case in the fourth quarter. That's across the portfolio and there's a number of classes in line. So but across the portfolio, double digit rate increases that would be staying slightly ahead of trend, and I don't see any reason why that pricing environment shouldn't persist as we go into '25.

是的，當然。再次，這是傑里米，你是對的。因此，傷亡定價一直是投資組合中實力較強的領域之一，事實上，我們看到 24 年間定價一直非常強勁，在第四季度仍然如此。這涵蓋整個投資組合，並且有多個類別。因此，但在整個投資組合中，兩位數的利率成長將略微領先於趨勢，而且我認為在進入25年時這種定價環境沒有理由不會持續下去。

We talked about and obviously it's pretty widely understood across the industry, given inflationary drivers, elevated loss costs, market dynamics, I would expect to continue to see pricing momentum in that space.

我們討論過，而且顯然整個行業都普遍理解這一點，考慮到通膨驅動因素、損失成本上升、市場動態，我預計該領域的定價勢頭將繼續保持。

John Fox, Centaur Asset Management.

約翰·福克斯（John Fox），Centaur Asset Management。

Good morning, everyone. I have two questions, first, you mentioned, more disclosure in the formatting. Which I noticed in this release and I appreciate it. So that's a nice job. First question, Tom, you mentioned in the first sentence of this release about your targets, which were exceeded this year, and then maybe not longer term in the conference call so that you're thinking about.

大家早安。我有兩個問題，首先，您提到了格式上的更多披露。我在此版本中註意到了這一點並且對此表示感謝。這是一份好工作。第一個問題，湯姆，您在本新聞稿的第一句話中提到了您的目標，今年您的目標已經超額完成了，但在電話會議中也許不會再長期實現，所以您正在考慮。

Well, the main ones that would have the most tangible impact on yours truly as well as the people sitting around the table is the compensation calculations that you find in the proxy statement and the double digit rates of return in operating income and market price per share, and we start getting paid nice incentives, so you can start there and work backwards.

嗯，對我以及在座的各位產生最切實影響的主要因素是您在代理聲明中找到的薪酬計算以及兩位數的營業收入和每股市場價格的回報率，我們開始獲得不錯的獎勵，因此您可以從那裡開始並反向工作。

Okay, great. And then I just have a question on. How do you think about the intrinsic value per share. Looking at the table, I think you're using gross equity securities, $11.78 billion. And some amount of gross investments, but there's an offsetting liability, you are your policyholders $26 billion which of course will be paid out over time. So probably, present value less than that. But, how do you think about using gross investment in the intrinsic value with there is a liability that, those investments are going to go out the door at some point. So how do you think about that? Thank you.

好的，太好了。我還有一個問題。您認為每股的內在價值如何？從表格中可以看出，我認為您使用的股權證券總額為 117.8 億美元。還有一定金額的總投資，但有一筆抵消負債，您是您的保單持有人，共計 260 億美元，這筆錢當然會隨著時間的推移而支付。因此，現值很可能低於該數字。但是，您如何看待使用總投資的內在價值，而存在著負債，這些投資在某個時候將會消失。那麼您對此有什麼看法？謝謝。

Sure, and I invite you to think about it however you want to, and I can assure you that there were robot discussions and points of view that had some differences from the people in this room. And the real you can do it any way you want but do it consistently. So at one extreme way of thinking about the question you've asked and Buffett really deserves the credit for being the first person who realized this, build a business around it, is that if you have insurance liabilities and you make an underwriting profit on them and they don't go down over time. I mean, the net value of that liability is zero.

當然，我邀請你們以你們想要的任何方式來思考這個問題，我可以向你們保證，關於機器人的討論和觀點與這個房間裡的人存在一些不同。事實上，你可以用任何你想要的方式去做，但要堅持不懈。因此，從一種極端的角度來思考你提出的問題，巴菲特確實值得稱讚，因為他是第一個意識到這一點並圍繞這一點建立企業的人，那就是如果你有保險負債，你就從中獲得承保利潤，而這些利潤不會隨著時間的推移而下降。我的意思是，該負債的淨值為零。

Now that yields a rather extreme answer, which my colleagues cautioned me away from. Okay, so we're, we've applied some haircuts and some conservativism, but that is theoretically within the realm of possibility. So you can get a pretty big dispersion of numbers depending on your method. The thing that really is worthy and doesn't have much dispersion to it is the rate of change over time. And the longer the time frame you use, the tighter the dispersion, no matter what your method and the more accurate it becomes, and that's the way we think about intrinsic value per share.

現在這得出了一個相當極端的答案，我的同事警告我不要這麼做。好的，我們確實採取了一些削減和保守措施，但從理論上講這是有可能實現的。因此，根據您的方法，您可以獲得相當大的數字分散。真正有價值並且沒有太多分散的事情是隨著時間的推移而發生的變化率。而且，無論使用什麼方法，使用的時間範圍越長，分散度就越緊密，而且它就越準確，這就是我們思考每股內在價值的方式。

Scott Heleniak, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Scott Heleniak。

Yeah, good morning. Is there anything notable to share at the January 1 renewals both on your reinsurance book and just, from a buyer reinsurance standpoint, anything you can talk to there and, the secondary question on the reinsurance side is the, -- exit of public entity, is that, can you remind me when that happened? Is that pretty much close to being anniversary?

是的，早安。在 1 月 1 日續保時，無論是在您的再保險帳簿上，還是從買方再保險的角度來看，有什麼值得分享的嗎？這快到週年紀念日了嗎？

Yes, Scott, it's Jeremy. I'll take the second first. So with regards to the exit of public entity, we announced that right at the beginning of the 4th quarter, so I think we touched upon that a quarter ago, that really went into effect this past 4th quarter. And public entity probably contributed about 4 points to the reinsurance combined ratio in the year. So that we we're off risk now, but that happened in the fourth quarter, and that'll that the benefit of that I'll earn over the course of the next several quarters. With regards to [11], let me talk first to your point about our outward reinsurance, so where we buy reinsurance. Overall, pretty pleased, I mean, I would call the market orderly in some pockets such as property and I'd say our marine and energy out of London, favorable terms, favorable pricing, good support, and it's certainly a good outcome.

是的，史考特，我是傑瑞米。我先選擇第二個。關於退出公共實體，我們在第四季度初就宣布了這一點，所以我認為我們在一個季度前就提到過這一點，它實際上是在過去的第四季度生效的。而公共實體當年大概對再保險綜合比率貢獻了4個百分點左右。所以我們現在擺脫了風險，但那發生在第四季度，那將是我在接下來的幾個季度中獲得的好處。關於[11]，讓我先談談您提到的我們的對外再保險，也就是我們在哪裡購買再保險。總體而言，我非常高興，我的意思是，我認為市場在某些領域是有序的，例如房地產，而且我們的海運和能源業務在倫敦以外，有優惠的條件、優惠的價格、良好的支持，這當然是一個好的結果。

That's improvement year over year. A professional, which we place late in the year, was kind of flat on pricing. We kept the structure the same casually, probably no surprise there. A little bit of an uptick in pricing, but all in all, good result, good support, pleased with the structures we have in place. Not a lot of change year-over-year. As far as the overall pricing conditions and marketplace going into the year, we're not massive necessarily on -- one, and obviously we have a more modest total for reinsurance book. I would say most of the pricing trends that either I touched upon earlier or that you've generally heard across the marketplace play true for us as well.

這是逐年進步的。我們在年底安排的一位專業人士的定價比較穩定。我們隨意地保持了相同的結構，這可能並不奇怪。價格略有上漲，但總體而言，結果不錯，支援良好，對我們現有的結構感到滿意。與去年同期相比，變化並不大。就今年的整體定價條件和市場而言，我們不一定有大量業務 — — 首先，顯然我們的再保險總額比較適中。我想說，我之前提到的或是大家在市場上普遍聽到的大多數定價趨勢對我們來說也同樣適用。

Okay, no, that's really good detail. And then just, you referenced the increase in IT spending in the fourth quarter and you mentioned it as well in the third quarter. Is there any more detail that you can share on those investments? And do you expect that kind of run rate to continue in 2025, or you feel like a lot of the heavy lifting is done? I know IT spending is never done, but, just because you had mentioned it the last couple of quarters, any context you can give on any of that?

好的，不，這確實是一個很好的細節。然後，您提到了第四季度 IT 支出的增加，也提到了第三季的 IT 支出增加。能分享這些投資的更多細節嗎？您是否預計這種運行率將在 2025 年持續下去，或者您覺得許多繁重的工作已經完成？我知道 IT 支出永無止境，但是，僅僅因為您在過去幾季中提到過它，您能提供一些相關背景資訊嗎？

Yeah, sure, good question. We, -- I mean, really, we've been pretty hard at work, I would say making incremental investments in our technology modernization initiatives both in our US and international insurance businesses. Let's call it over the last couple of years but really accelerating this past year and more so this coming year. I won't specifically quantify the level of investment, but it is incrementally adding, at least 0.5 point to the expense ratio, and those benefits will start to come over time.

是的，當然，這是個好問題。我們—我的意思是，我們確實一直在努力工作，我想說的是，我們在美國和國際保險業務的技術現代化計劃上進行了逐步的投資。我們可以說這是過去幾年發生的事情，但過去的一年，這一進程確實在加速，而明年，這一進程將更加加快。我不會具體量化投資水平，但它會逐步增加，費用率至少會增加 0.5 個百分點，而且這些好處會隨著時間的推移開始顯現。

So gave an example, with regards to claims modernization in the US and here pretty shortly we'll be transacting new claims on a new cloud-based modernized platform that will drive productivity and efficiency over time, but we've got a number of initiatives taking place in the US and internationally.

舉個例子，關於美國的索賠現代化，很快我們將在一個新的基於雲端的現代化平台上處理新的索賠，這將隨著時間的推移提高生產力和效率，但我們已經在美國和國際上開展了許多舉措。

Okay, great. That's helpful. And just the last one just on US professional liability, that's been, more competitive market. You've seen softening pricing just market wide, and I know that's an area where you guys had started to pull back, probably a year or more. Are you seeing stabilization in that? Do you expect to, return to growth in that for 2025, or is it still highly competitive and you still may not want to grow in that, given what's happening now.

好的，太好了。這很有幫助。最後一個關於美國專業責任的問題，那就是市場競爭更加激烈。你已經看到整個市場的價格都在走軟，我知道這是你們開始撤退的領域，可能已經有一年或更長時間了。您認為其是否正在趨於穩定？您是否預計 2025 年該領域會恢復成長，或考慮到目前的情況，競爭仍然非常激烈，而且您可能仍不希望該領域實現成長。

Yeah, it's Jeremy again, and you're the latter, I would say is the case. It continues to be a very challenging sector, pricing is not, I think, at levels of rate adequacy. We have scaled back this past year, and that will continue to be the case as we go into '25. It's just, it's not an area of emphasis for us right now because the marketplace is not supportive.

是的，又是傑瑞米，而你是後者，我想說情況就是這樣。這仍然是一個非常具有挑戰性的行業，我認為定價還沒有達到利率充足性的水平。我們去年縮減了規模，進入2025年，這種狀況還會持續下去。只是，這不是我們目前的重點領域，因為市場不支​​援。

Great appreciate all the answers.

非常感謝大家的回答。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Securities.

道明證券 (TD Securities) 的安德魯‧克利格曼 (Andrew Kligerman)。

Great, thanks for the follow up. Just following up on the expense ratio, so it was at 37.1%, about 170 basis points above last year's and you just pointed out 50 basis points from investments in technology and seeing improvements over time. And of course, earlier you mentioned scale is an issue as you decreased during premium a little bit, changes in reinsurance, but as I think about it, where would you like to see this expense ratio maybe 3 years to 5 years from now? Are there any initiatives to get that down? I mean, will it just be the efficiencies from your technology investing right now? Could there be more initiatives, maybe a little color on. What else is occurring and where you'd like to see it maybe 3 years to 5 years from now.

太好了，謝謝您的跟進。讓我們來看看費用率，目前費用率為 37.1%，比去年高出約 170 個基點，而您剛才指出，這 50 個基點來自於對技術的投資，並且隨著時間的推移，我們看到了改進。當然，您之前提到規模是一個問題，因為您在保費方面有所降低，再保險方面也有所變化，但我想，您希望 3 年至 5 年後這個費用率會達到什麼水平？有什麼舉措可以降低這一水平嗎？我的意思是，這是否只是您現在技術投資帶來的效率？是否可以有更多的舉措，或許可以增添一些色彩。還發生了什麼事情，您希望 3 至 5 年後看到什麼事情發生？

Yeah, thanks Andrew's, it's Jeremy. Couple things here. So first off, I think with regards to the fourth quarter and that expense ratio being elevated, that is really because of a spike in the period that will not recur. It was associated with catching up on recognizing some contingent commissions in both our international and specialty divisions on profitable lines of business where we have been growing. So first I'd say think of our sort of full year expense ratio maybe it's a better indicator of where we are.

是的，謝謝安德魯，我是傑瑞米。把這兩件事放在一起。首先，我認為就第四季而言，費用率上升實際上是因為該時期的飆升，而且這種飆升不會再發生。這與在我們不斷增長的盈利業務線上確認我們的國際和專業部門的一些或有佣金有關。所以首先我想說的是，想想我們的全年費用率，也許它可以更好地表明我們的狀況。

The second point that you're acknowledging is we would acknowledge that expense ratio is elevated to where our longer-term objectives would be, and we are taking actions. I would tell you if you thought of our expense ratio for the full year. In the US, that expense ratio is up about 0.5 point. In our international operations, it's up about 2.5 points, and that is really because, as I mentioned, sub 80 combined, higher profit-sharing costs, we're actually investing significantly in the business. So we've been growing geographically, opening new offices and locations in new countries.

您承認的第二點是，我們承認費用率已經上升到了我們長期目標的水平，我們正在採取行動。如果您想想過我們全年的費用率，我會告訴您。在美國，該費用率上升了約0.5個百分點。在我們的國際業務中，這一數字上升了約 2.5 個百分點，而這實際上是因為，正如我提到的那樣，綜合來看，利潤分享成本更高，我們實際上在業務上投入了大量資金。因此，我們一直在地域上不斷擴張，在新的國家開設新的辦公室和分店。

Australia is a good example of that but making investments across Asia Pacific and the continental Europe. We've added product capabilities, so we're writing international casualty. We've added power to our sustainable energy platform. So we're investing in that business and that's having a bigger impact on the expense ratio, the wonderful results in that in that business. In the US, the half a point is impacted by the portfolio corrective actions we've taken and then also the investments we're making in technology.

澳洲就是一個很好的例子，但它在亞太地區和歐洲大陸進行投資。我們增加了產品功能，因此我們正在撰寫國際傷亡險。我們為永續能源平台增添了動力。因此，我們對該業務進行了投資，這對費用率產生了更大的影響，並且該業務取得了出色的成果。在美國，這半個百分點受到我們採取的投資組合糾正措施以及我們在技術方面的投資的影響。

So as we stabilize, get on the other side of actions get back to more normalized levels of growth and as we start to receive the benefits of the investments, we're making in product growth and geographic expansion internationally as well as the technology modernization, we're going to see that come down. What does that look like? I mean there's certainly over you said 3 years to 5 years, so I can be a little bit more open there. I mean, a couple of points of improvement is certainly something that would be an objective of ours.

因此，隨著我們穩定下來，採取行動，回到更正常化的成長水平，並開始獲得投資收益，我們在產品成長和國際地域擴張以及技術現代化方面所做的投資，我們將看到這一數字下降。它看起來像什麼？我的意思是，肯定有超過 3 到 5 年的時間，所以我可以更公開地回答這個問題。我的意思是，改進幾個點肯定是我們的目標。

Yeah, that's very helpful. Thanks for that detail. I guess one more, on the intrinsic value and, the process of dizziness and headache. I have to say I got a little bit of that and incentive comp, and I'd like a little more clarity on how that's measured. Is it over a five year period? Because as I looked at the chart that you provided in the second page of your release. You started with 2020 for your intrinsic value, which is the COVID year and you earned about $1.3 million in operating income versus 2021, which was $3.2 million or 3.3%.

是的，這很有幫助。謝謝你的詳細說明。我想再問一個，關於內在價值，以及頭暈頭痛的過程。我必須說，我已經得到了一點這樣的待遇和激勵補償，我希望更清楚地了解如何衡量這些待遇。持續時間超過五年嗎？因為當我查看您在新聞稿第二頁提供的圖表時。您的內在價值是從 2020 年開始計算的，也就是新冠疫情年，您的營業收入約為 130 萬美元，而 2021 年為 320 萬美元，佔 3.3%。

And then if I look back even at 2019, you earned 2.5 billion and then if I look at the insurance ops, if I look at 2021, you earned $118 million and this year it was $601 million. So I guess if we had, you had that COVID year in 2020, is that going to generate a lot of compensation when there are really some difficult circumstances in that year.

然後，如果我回顧 2019 年，您賺了 25 億美元，然後如果我看看保險業務，如果我看看 2021 年，您賺了 1.18 億美元，而今年是 6.01 億美元。所以我想，如果我們在 2020 年經歷了疫情，那麼當那一年真的出現一些困難的情況時，是否會產生很多補償呢？

Yeah, this is Tom. It is over a 5 year rolling average, so all those years get added in to come up with the 5-year number. I might remind you that 2020 subtracted from our conversation for a couple of years, so it does roll off and mature and there's some smiles around the faces as we do get past the pre-COVID to post-COVID comparisons but I would refer you to our proxy statement.

是的，這是湯姆。這是 5 年的滾動平均值，因此將所有這些年份加起來得出 5 年的數字。我可能需要提醒您，2020 年已經從我們的談話中減少了幾年，因此它確實會結束和成熟，而且隨著我們確實超越了 COVID 之前和 COVID 之後的比較，臉上也露出了一些笑容，但我建議您參閱我們的代理聲明。

We try to lay it out as clear as we possibly can. We've been consistent in the calculation method for many years and in our 38-year history as a public company. We've made very few changes. I mean, every number of years that there might be some update into the calculation and the hurdle rates that are involved, but the basic structure and the basic theory of pay for performance and making sure that our shareholders get paid first hat's been consistent since day one and we'll be going forward.

我們嘗試將其闡述得盡可能清晰。多年來，以及在我們作為上市公司的38年歷史中，我們的計算方法始終保持一致。我們只做了很少的改變。我的意思是，每隔幾年，所涉及的計算和最低收益率可能會有一些更新，但績效工資的基本結構和基本理論以及確保我們的股東首先獲得報酬的理念從第一天起就始終如一，我們也將繼續這樣做。

That sounds very fair. Okay, thanks a lot.

這聽起來很公平。好的，非常感謝。

John Fox, Fenimore Asset Management.

約翰·福克斯（John Fox），費尼莫爾資產管理公司。

Hey, good morning. I have a follow up for Jeremy. I was a little bit surprised to see the gross and net written premium volume growth and reinsurance, given that, it's been a poor underwriting record over time, so.

嘿，早安。我要跟進傑里米的情況。我對毛承保保費和淨承保保費的增長以及再保險感到有點驚訝，因為長期以來承保記錄一直很差。

Sure, John, it's Jeremy. Ultimately, it's a little bit about sort of mixed within the portfolios. So where we have seen a little bit of growth year-over-year is in places like our marine and energy offerings out of the London market, places like Workers' comp, maybe transactional liability, which kind of came back a little bit stronger and, as far as premium volume in the overall marketplace in '24 versus '23.

當然，約翰，我是傑瑞米。最終，這有點類似於投資組合中的混合。因此，我們看到年成長的一些面向包括倫敦市場的海洋和能源產品、工傷補償、交易責任等領域，這些領域的成長略有加強，就 2024 年與 2023 年相比，整個市場的保費收入也略有增加。

Where we've been more challenged traditional areas of professional liability like DNO or in the casualty, we've been contracting in those spaces So some of that growth would come from how we might increase our participation or see growth in exposure or be taking advantage of maybe some new business in lines that we believe are performing and have performed better, but they're smaller aspects of the overall portfolio.

我們在傳統的專業責任領域（如 DNO 或災難險）面臨的挑戰更大，我們一直在這些領域進行承包，因此，部分增長可能來自於我們如何增加參與度或看到曝光度的增長，或者利用我們認為表現良好且表現更好的一些新業務，但它們只是整體投資組合中較小的部分。

Okay, so I mean the implication would be better combined ratio in the future.

好的，我的意思是這意味著未來的綜合比率會更好。

The future.

未來。

We are sure working hard at that. The combined ratio and reinsurance is not, -- has not been an acceptable level, so it's got to be better.

我們肯定會為此而努力。綜合比率和再保險還沒有達到可接受的水平，因此必須做得更好。

Right, absolutely. Okay, we'll keep an eye on that. Thank you.

對，絕對如此。好的，我們會密切注意。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And this includes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Thomas Gaynor, for any closing remarks.

這包括我們的問答環節。我想將會議交還給托馬斯·蓋納 (Thomas Gaynor)，請他作最後發言。

Thank you for joining us. Thank you for your support. We look forward to reporting our progress to you as the year goes by. Have a great day.

感謝您加入我們。感謝您的支持。我們期待在未來的一年向您報告我們的進展。祝你有美好的一天。

The conference call has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may not disconnect.

電話會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您不能斷開連線。