莫霍克工業集團 (MHK) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Mohawk Industries first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

大家早安，歡迎參加莫霍克工業 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

At this time, I'd like to turn the conference call over to Mr. James Brunk, Chief Financial Officer. Sir, please go ahead.

現在，我想將電話會議交給財務長詹姆斯·布倫克先生。先生，請繼續。

Thanks, Jamie. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Mohawk Industries' quarterly investor conference call. Joining me on the call are Jeff Lorberbaum, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Paul De Cock, President and Chief Operating Officer.

謝謝，傑米。大家早安，歡迎參加莫霍克工業季度投資者電話會議。參加電話會議的還有董事長兼執行長 Jeff Lorberbaum 和總裁兼營運長 Paul De Cock。

Today, we'll update you on the company's first-quarter performance and provide guidance for the second quarter of 2025. I'd like to remind everyone that our press release and statements that we make during this call may include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, those set forth in our press release and periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

今天，我們將向您介紹公司第一季的業績，並為 2025 年第二季提供指導。我想提醒大家，我們的新聞稿和我們在本次電話會議中發表的聲明可能包括《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受各種風險和不確定性的影響，包括但不限於我們的新聞稿和定期向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述。

This call may include the discussion of non-GAAP numbers. For a reconciliation of any non-GAAP to GAAP amounts, please refer to our Form 8-K and press release in the Investors section of our website.

此次電話會議可能包括對非公認會計準則資料進行討論。任何非 GAAP 與 GAAP 金額的對賬，請參閱我們網站投資者部分的 8-K 表格和新聞稿。

I'll now turn over the call to Jeff for his opening remarks.

現在我將把電話轉給傑夫，請他致開場白。

Thank you, Jim. In the first quarter, our reported sales were $2.5 billion, a decrease of 5.7% as reported or about flat on a constant basis absorbing two fewer shipping days and year-over-year foreign exchange headwinds. Even with some market conditions, our premium collections and differentiated products we launched in 2024 generated above-market results. We recorded earnings per share of $1.52, with our performance primarily benefiting from productivity gains, restructuring actions and a lower tax rate, which offset pricing pressure and higher input costs. The impact of missed sales and extraordinary costs from our new Flooring North America order system was within the expected range and services returned to historical rates.

謝謝你，吉姆。第一季度，我們的報告銷售額為 25 億美元，報告下降 5.7%，或基本持平，原因是運輸時間減少了兩天，並且比去年同期受到外匯不利因素的影響。即使在某些市場條件下，我們在 2024 年推出的高端系列和差異化產品仍產生了高於市場的業績。我們的每股盈餘為 1.52 美元，業績主要受益於生產力提高、重組行動和較低的稅率，這些稅率抵消了定價壓力和更高的投入成本。我們新的北美地板訂單系統造成的銷售損失和額外成本的影響在預期範圍內，服務恢復到歷史水準。

We are enhancing the system to improve our efficiencies and provide greater functionality and capabilities. During the quarter, we purchased 225,000 shares of our stock for approximately $26 million. Last month, global tariffs were announced, which elevated uncertainty for businesses and consumers. In response to the retaliatory tariffs, the US also implemented tariffs of 145% on China, which supplies a significant part of LVT sold in the US.

我們正在增強系統以提高效率並提供更強大的功能和能力。本季度，我們以約 2,600 萬美元的價格回購了 225,000 股股票。上個月，全球關稅宣布，這增加了企業和消費者的不確定性。為了回應報復性關稅，美國也對中國實施了145%的關稅，而中國是美國LVT銷售市場很大一部分的供應國。

Mohawk has a substantial domestic operation to produce ceramic tile, carpet, laminate, sheet vinyl, LVT and quartz countertops, which is more advantageous as tariffs increase. To offer our customers a wider variety of options, we supplement our ceramic tile and LVT manufactured in the US with imported products. Most of the ceramic tile and some of the LVT we import is produced in our own facilities in Mexico and is not subject to tariffs under the USMCA agreement. We increased our inventory levels in preparation of tariffs being implemented.

莫霍克在國內擁有大量業務，生產瓷磚、地毯、層壓板、乙烯基片材、LVT 和石英檯面，隨著關稅上調，這些業務更具優勢。為了向我們的客戶提供更廣泛的選擇，我們在美國生產的瓷磚和 LVT 中添加了進口產品。我們進口的大部分瓷磚和部分 LVT 都是在我們位於墨西哥的自有工廠生產的，根據 USMCA 協議，這些產品不徵收關稅。我們增加了庫存水平，為實施關稅做好準備。

At the current 10% rate, we expect estimate Mohawk will incur annualized costs of approximately $50 million, which is -- we expect to address through price increases and supply chain adjustments as needed. In addition to direct to the direct impact, the tariffs are likely to influence consumer and new construction and business spending in both the US and abroad, though the extent is unpredictable at this time. Another impact of the tariffs is the weakening of the US dollar, which could benefit our domestic manufacturing and translated results this year.

以目前 10% 的利率，我們預計莫霍克每年將產生約 5,000 萬美元的成本，我們預計將根據需要透過提高價格和調整供應鏈來解決這個問題。除了直接影響外，關稅還可能影響美國及國外的消費者、新建築和商業支出，儘管目前影響程度尚無法預測。關稅的另一個影響是美元走弱，這可能有利於我們今年的國內製造業和轉換績效。

Across our markets, conditions in the first quarter weakened sequentially and with residential remodeling remaining the lowest sector. Even before the tariff announcements, consumer confidence had been falling as individuals have grown increasingly anxious about their future prospects. In the US, concerns over inflation have prevented the Fed from reducing rates, though most are now predicting a Fed will make multiple rate cuts during 2025. So far this year, more US homes are being offered for sale as available housing inventory continues to rise.

在我們的整個市場中，第一季的狀況較上季走弱，而住宅改造仍是最低的產業。甚至在關稅公告發布之前，消費者信心就已經下降，因為人們對未來前景越來越感到擔憂。在美國，對通膨的擔憂阻止了聯準會降低利率，儘管目前大多數人預測聯準會將在 2025 年期間多次降息。今年到目前為止，隨著可用房屋庫存持續增加，美國待售房屋數量增加。

After multiple years of deferring purchases, some consumers are reentering the real estate market to meet their current family needs. Others are staying in their homes longer than planned and will initiate remodeling projects to maintain their properties and accommodate family changes. As the spring selling season begins, the outlook for US homebuilders remains cautious with March results showing significant variation by region. Due to economic uncertainty and the war in Ukraine, consumer confidence in Europe has also declined leading to postponed home sales and remodeling activities.

經過多年的延後購屋後，一些消費者重新進入房地產市場以滿足當前的家庭需求。其他人則比計劃更長時間地留在自己的家中，並將啟動改造項目以維護他們的財產並適應家庭的變化。隨著春季銷售季節的開始，美國房屋建築商的前景依然謹慎，三月的結果顯示各地區有顯著差異。由於經濟不確定性和烏克蘭戰爭，歐洲消費者信心也下降，導致房屋銷售和改造活動延後。

As inflation near their target the European Central Bank conceptual rate to 2.25% in April to stimulate the economy as well as the housing market as defense and infrastructure spending increases, European economies, particularly Germany could see improvement.

隨著通膨接近目標，歐洲央行4月將概念利率上調至2.25%，以刺激經濟以及房地產市場，隨著國防和基礎設施支出的增加，歐洲經濟體，特別是德國，可能會出現改善。

Now Jim will review our financial details for the quarter.

現在吉姆將審查我們本季的財務細節。

Thank you, Jeff. Sales for the quarter were just over $2.5 billion. It's 5.7% decrease as reported or 0.7% on a constant basis, including absorbing two less shipping days, unfavorable year-over-year foreign exchange, and the previously disclosed on the Flooring North America system conversion. These headwinds were partially offset by favorable price/mix in the quarter, primarily in our global ceramic and Flooring North America segments. Gross margin for the quarter was 23.1% as reported and excluding charges was 24.1%, in line with the prior year. SG&A expense as a percentage of sales was 19.2% on an adjusted basis, again, relatively in line with the prior year.

謝謝你，傑夫。本季銷售額略高於 25 億美元。報告顯示下降了 5.7%，或按固定匯率下降了 0.7%，其中包括吸收了兩天的運輸時間、不利的同比外匯影響以及先前披露的北美地板系統轉換。這些不利因素被本季有利的價格/產品組合所部分抵消，主要是在我們的全球陶瓷和北美地板部門。本季毛利率為 23.1%，扣除費用後為 24.1%，與前一年持平。銷售、一般及行政費用佔銷售額的百分比（經調整後）為 19.2%，與上年基本持平。

Operating income, as reported, was $96 million or 3.8%. During the quarter, we had charges of $26 million, primarily related to our previously announced restructuring actions across the enterprise, which will generate approximately $100 million of savings this year. That gave us an operating margin from an adjusted basis of 4.8%, 130-basis-point decrease versus the prior year due to higher input costs of $41 million. The impact of the Flooring North America order management system conversion of approximately $30 million, which was in line with our expectations, volume of $11 million, partially offset by improvement in productivity of $51 million. Interest expense for the quarter was $6 million, a decrease versus the prior year due to lower overall debt and the benefit of interest income, reflecting the strength of our balance sheet.

據報道，營業收入為 9,600 萬美元，佔 3.8%。本季度，我們的費用為 2,600 萬美元，主要與我們先前宣布的整個企業的重組行動有關，這將在今年產生約 1 億美元的節餘。這使得我們的調整後營業利潤率為 4.8%，由於投入成本增加 4,100 萬美元，比上年下降了 130 個基點。北美地板訂單管理系統轉換的影響約為 3000 萬美元，符合我們的預期，交易量為 1,100 萬美元，但被 5,100 萬美元的生產率提高部分抵消。本季利息支出為 600 萬美元，較上年有所下降，原因是整體債務減少和利息收入增加，反映了我們資產負債表的強勁。

Based on our current outlook, we anticipate our interest expense to be in the range of $25 million to $30 million for the full year. Our non-GAAP tax rate was approximately 18% versus 21.8% in the prior year. We're forecasting a Q2 tax rate of approximately 21% and for the full year to be approximately 20%. It gave us an earnings per share for the quarter on a reported basis of $1.15 and adjusted earnings per share of $1.52.

根據我們目前的展望，我們預計全年利息支出將在 2,500 萬至 3,000 萬美元之間。我們的非公認會計準則稅率約為 18%，而前一年為 21.8%。我們預測第二季的稅率約為 21%，全年的稅率約為 20%。根據報告，本季每股收益為 1.15 美元，調整後每股收益為 1.52 美元。

Turning to the segments. Global Ceramic had sales of just over $990 million. It's a 4.9% decrease as reported and an increase of 1.2% on a constant basis, driven by an improvement in our product and channel mix across the segment, partially offset by lower sales volume. Our operating income on an adjusted basis was $48 million or 4.8%. That's only 20 basis points below the prior year as higher input costs of $18 million, lower sales volume of $10 million offset gains in productivity versus the prior year of $21 million, driven by an improvement in our year-over-year results in the US, Brazil and Europe.

轉向各個部分。Global Ceramic 的銷售額略高於 9.9 億美元。報告顯示，這一數字下降了 4.9%，但以固定匯率計算則增長了 1.2%，這得益於我們整個部門的產品和渠道組合的改善，但銷量下降部分抵消了這一影響。調整後的營業收入為 4,800 萬美元，增幅為 4.8%。這僅比前一年低 20 個基點，因為投入成本增加了 1,800 萬美元，銷售額減少了 1,000 萬美元，抵銷了生產力的提高（去年為 2,100 萬美元），這得益於我們在美國、巴西和歐洲的同比業績改善。

In Flooring North America, our sales were $862 million. That is a decrease of 4.2% or 1.1% on a constant basis, as the segment had improvement in price and mix especially in the resilient laminate and commercial soft business units, offset by the negative impact of the order management system conversion, which was approximately $50 million, most of that being on volume. It gave us an operating income on an adjusted basis of $26 million or 3% excluding charges, a decline of 230 basis points versus the prior year as the year-over-year improvement in productivity of $27 million was offset by higher input costs of $19 million and the impact of the system conversion of approximately $30 million. In Flooring Rest of the World, we had sales of $670 million, that's an 8.8% decrease as reported and 2.9% on an adjusted basis, driven by lower sales volume and unfavorable price mix, primarily in our laminate insulation and cheap vinyl business units. Operating income on an adjusted basis was 9.1%. That's a decline of 100 basis points versus the prior year due to unfavorable price mix of approximately $8 million and lower sales volume only partially offset by stronger productivity as the improvement in our LVT business was offset by the weakness in insulation and laminate.

在北美地板市場，我們的銷售額為 8.62 億美元。這一下降幅度為 4.2% 或按固定比率下降 1.1%，因為該部門的價格和產品組合有所改善，特別是在彈性層壓板和商業軟業務部門，但訂單管理系統轉換的負面影響（約為 5000 萬美元，其中大部分是數量上的）抵消了這一影響。它使我們的調整後營業收入達到 2600 萬美元，即 3%（不包括費用），比上年下降了 230 個基點，因為生產率同比增長 2700 萬美元被 1900 萬美元的投入成本增加和系統轉換約 3000 萬美元的影響所抵消。在世界其他地區的地板業務中，我們的銷售額為 6.7 億美元，報告下降 8.8%，調整後下降 2.9%，主要原因是銷量下降和價格組合不利，這主要發生在我們的層壓絕緣材料和廉價乙烯基業務部門。調整後的營業收入為9.1%。與前一年相比，這一數字下降了 100 個基點，因為價格組合不利，約 800 萬美元，而且銷售量下降，但生產力提高只能部分抵消這一影響，因為我們的 LVT 業務的改善被絕緣和層壓板的疲軟所抵消。

Corporate eliminations for the quarter were $12 million, in line with the prior year, and we anticipate the full year expenses to be approximately $50 million. Turning to the balance sheet. Cash and cash equivalents were just over $700 million. In Q1, our free cash flow was a use of approximately $85 million primarily due to timing with the delayed invoicing in Flooring North America and an increase in imported goods ahead of US tariff rollout.

本季公司消除支出為 1,200 萬美元，與上年持平，我們預計全年支出約為 5,000 萬美元。轉向資產負債表。現金和現金等價物略高於7億美元。在第一季度，我們的自由現金流使用量約為 8,500 萬美元，這主要是由於北美地板業務的發票延遲以及美國關稅推出前進口商品增加所致。

We still forecast a strong overall year in free cash flow. Inventories were just over $2.6 billion. Our inventory grew by approximately $80 million versus the prior year, primarily due to the increase of imported goods, again, ahead of the recently announced US tariffs. Property plant and equipment were just over $4.6 billion.

我們仍然預測今年全年自由現金流將保持強勁。庫存略高於26億美元。我們的庫存比去年增加了約 8000 萬美元，這主要是由於進口商品的增加，而且是在最近宣布的美國關稅之前。房地產、廠房和設備價值略高於 46 億美元。

Our Q1 CapEx was $89 million, with D&A at approximately $150 million. The company plans to invest approximately $530 million in 2025 with D&A of approximately $600 million, focusing on cost reduction and product innovation projects. And lastly, overall, the balance sheet and cash flow outlook remained very strong with current net debt of $1.7 billion and a leverage of 1.2 times.

我們第一季的資本支出為 8,900 萬美元，折舊攤提前利潤約為 1.5 億美元。該公司計劃在2025年投資約5.3億美元，其中折舊攤提前利潤約6億美元，專注於降低成本和產品創新項目。最後，整體而言，資產負債表和現金流前景依然強勁，目前淨債務為 17 億美元，槓桿比率為 1.2 倍。

And with that, I will turn it over to Paul to review our Q1 operational performance.

接下來，我將把任務交給保羅來回顧我們第一季的營運表現。

Thank you, Jim. In our Global Ceramic segment, our strategy is to grow our market share in a difficult environment. We believe we outperformed the markets in most of our regions while optimizing our mix and reducing costs. With low demand, we are leveraging our extensive offering, superior service, and reliability to improve our position with existing customers while pursuing new opportunities. Pricing pressure remains a challenge due to low capacity utilization across the industry in all of our geographies, and we are taking selective pricing actions where feasible.

謝謝你，吉姆。在我們的全球陶瓷領域，我們的策略是在困難的環境中擴大我們的市場份額。我們相信，在優化產品組合和降低成本的同時，我們在大多數地區的表現都優於市場。由於需求低，我們正在利用我們廣泛的產品、優質的服務和可靠性來提高我們在現有客戶中的地位，同時尋求新的機會。由於我們所有地區的行業產能利用率較低，定價壓力仍然是一個挑戰，我們正在可行的情況下採取選擇性定價措施。

Our restructuring projects are on schedule, and we are evaluating additional initiatives to lower our costs. In the US, we delivered solid results in both residential and commercial as we focused on ceramic tile contractors, kitchen and bath dealers, and commercial projects. Given rising input costs, we implemented targeted pricing increases on our higher-value products. Most of our US floor [involved our] portfolio is manufactured in the US and Mexico, which should advantage our business given tariffs on imported products.

我們的重組項目正在按計劃進行，我們正在評估降低成本的其他措施。在美國，我們專注於瓷磚承包商、廚房和浴室經銷商以及商業項目，在住宅和商業領域都取得了穩健的業績。鑑於投入成本的上升，我們對高價值產品實施了有針對性的漲價。我們在美國的大部分地板產品都是在美國和墨西哥生產的，考慮到進口產品的關稅，這應該對我們的業務有利。

Our domestically produced quart countertops should also benefit since more than half of that market is using imported alternatives. In Europe, our results benefited from our premium collections, innovative product introductions and growing participation in the commercial channel, which is outperforming residential. Sales of our porcelain slabs are growing significantly due to our advanced visuals capacity expansion and improved costs. Natural gas prices in Europe have recently declined and will help offset other inflation.

我們國產的石英檯面也應該會受益，因為超過一半的市場都在使用進口替代品。在歐洲，我們的業績得益於我們的優質系列、創新產品的推出以及商業通路日益增長的參與度，而商業通路的表現優於住宅通路。由於我們先進的視覺產能擴張和成本改善，我們的瓷磚銷售量正在大幅成長。歐洲天然氣價格近期有所下降，將有助於抵銷其他通膨。

In Brazil, our results benefited from strengthened exports throughout South America pricing actions and enhanced mix. The Mexican market remains challenging, and we are expanding our porcelain offering to grow our distribution and improve our mix. Our restructuring projects in Mexico are on track and will lower our costs and increase our competitive position. In our Flooring Rest of the World segment, we are responding to challenging market conditions through strategies to expand sales in parts of Europe with stronger economies, introducing new products to satisfy regional preferences and focusing on greater export opportunities around the world. To offset higher input costs, we're taking selective pricing actions where possible while also pursuing productivity gains and cost reductions.

在巴西，我們的業績受益於整個南美洲出口的加強和產品組合的最佳化。墨西哥市場仍然充滿挑戰，我們正在擴大我們的瓷器供應，以擴大我們的分銷範圍並改善我們的產品組合。我們在墨西哥的重組項目正在順利進行，這將降低我們的成本並提高我們的競爭地位。在我們的地板世界其他地區部門，我們正透過擴大歐洲經濟較強地區的銷售、推出新產品以滿足區域偏好以及關注全球更大的出口機會等策略來應對充滿挑戰的市場條件。為了抵​​銷更高的投入成本，我們在盡可能的情況下採取選擇性定價措施，同時追求提高生產力和降低成本。

We are controlling inventory and managing operations to align with lower demand in the region. In Flooring business, our transition from flexible to rigid LVT has helped increase volumes, and we have improved our manufacturing performance. In Europe, we are experiencing increased pricing and mix pressures in our flooring categories as retailers shift their product assortment to lower prices to align with consumers trading down. To increase sales of our Quickstep Premium Flooring, we are expanding distribution in Southern and Eastern Europe. In the quarter, we started a new laminate press that can deliver the next generation of product features and is more efficient than the line we retired.

我們正在控制庫存和管理運營，以適應該地區較低的需求。在地板業務方面，我們從柔性到剛性 LVT 的轉變有助於增加產量，並且我們提高了製造性能。在歐洲，隨著零售商將產品種類轉向較低價格以適應消費者的消費需求，我們的地板類別面臨越來越大的定價和組合壓力。為了增加 Quickstep Premium Flooring 的銷量，我們正在擴大南歐和東歐的分銷範圍。在本季度，我們啟動了一台新的層壓機，它可以提供下一代產品功能，並且比我們淘汰的生產線更有效率。

Our panels mix benefited from the growth of our premium collections and higher value decorates panels despite ongoing pressure on our commodity panels business. Our installation performance improved in the UK and sales of flat roof products for commercial projects increased. We're expanding insulation sales into Eastern Europe to support a new facility in Poland that will be operational in 2027 when we expect more favorable market conditions. In both the panels and insulation business, we have announced selective price increases given inflation.

儘管我們的商品面板業務持續面臨壓力，但我們的面板組合受益於優質系列和更高價值裝飾面板的成長。我們在英國的安裝業績有所提高，商業項目的平屋頂產品銷售量也有所增加。我們正在擴大在東歐的絕緣材料銷售，以支持波蘭的新工廠，該工廠將於 2027 年投入運營，我們預計屆時市場條件將更加有利。對於面板和絕緣材料業務，鑑於通貨膨脹，我們已經宣布選擇性漲價。

Our Flooring North America segment performed in line with expectations as our shipments recovered from the disruption caused by the order system conversion. Residential remodeling remains under pressure due to low housing turnover, elevated interest rates and weakening consumer confidence. In 2025, we launched many new products to better position us for a recovery of the category. At the recent National Trade Show, our New Karastan, Black Label, luxury carpet collection, was chosen by dealers as the best product for style and design. During the quarter, we also benefited from strong sales performance in LVT as we have expanded our portfolio across all price points.

我們的北美地板部門表現符合預期，因為我們的出貨量已從訂單系統轉換造成的中斷中恢復過來。由於住房週轉率低、利率上升和消費者信心減弱，住宅改造仍面臨壓力。2025年，我們推出了許多新產品，以便更好地為該類別的復甦做好準備。在最近的全國貿易展上，我們的 New Karastan Black Label 豪華地毯系列被經銷商評選為風格和設計最佳產品。在本季度，我們也受益於 LVT 的強勁銷售業績，因為我們擴大了所有價位的產品組合。

Our East and West Coast LVT production strategy is improving our service and optimizing our logistics costs. The acceptance of our premium waterproof laminate as an alternative to LVT is progressing in both residential remodeling and new construction. It provides superior aesthetics and scratch resistance and the more dependable supply. We are further increasing our domestic laminate capacity to support the increasing demand. We have expanded our relationships with homebuilders across the country in both carpet and hard surfaces, which are yielding higher sales.

我們的東海岸和西海岸 LVT 生產策略正在改善我們的服務並優化我們的物流成本。我們的優質防水層壓板作為 LVT 替代品的接受度在住宅改造和新建築中都在不斷提高。它具有卓越的美觀性和抗刮性以及更可靠的供應。我們正在進一步提高國內層壓板產能以滿足日益增長的需求。我們擴大了與全國各地地毯和硬地面材料房屋建築商的關係，從而帶來了更高的銷售額。

In commercial, order activity is good in all categories as we benefited from accelerated product launches. Our restructuring actions in the segment are on track and delivering the expected savings. We are working to offset higher input costs through additional process improvements and cost reduction actions.

在商業方面，由於我們受益於加速的產品發布，所有類別的訂單活動都很好。我們在該部門的重組行動正在順利進行並實現了預期的節約。我們正在努力透過額外的流程改進和成本削減措施來抵消更高的投入成本。

I will now return the call to Jeff for his closing remarks.

現在我將回電給傑夫，請他作最後發言。

Thank you, Paul. With the implementation of the tariffs last month, there is more uncertainty with the global economic outlook and softer conditions are anticipated given higher inflation, lower consumer confidence and reduced business investments. At this point, the tariff amount and the effect on consumer spending and housing are still evolving. We will take the appropriate actions to manage the impact of tariffs as needed. We're focusing on optimizing our sales and further lowering our operational costs with our restructuring initiatives this year, which should result in a benefit of approximately $100 million.

謝謝你，保羅。隨著上個月關稅的實施，全球經濟前景變得更加不確定，由於通膨上升、消費者信心下降和商業投資減少，預計經濟狀況將更加疲軟。目前，關稅金額以及對消費支出和住房的影響仍在不斷演變。我們將根據需要採取適當行動來應對關稅的影響。我們今年將致力於透過重組措施優化銷售並進一步降低營運成本，這將帶來約 1 億美元的收益。

Our Flooring North America segment service has returned to historical levels while we continue to enhance the functionality and efficiency of the systems new order system. We expect to increase cost from inflation will be partially mitigated through productivity gains, cost containment and strategic pricing actions. We anticipate pricing pressure will continue in all regions, given low demand in competitive markets. Global Ceramics and Flooring North America are improving their mix with increased participation in the commercial channel, sales of premium collections and performance of recent product introductions. In the Rest of World segment, European consumer demand for large discretionary purchases such as flooring is at a low level with product mixing, though declining interest rates could stimulate demand.

我們的北美地板部門服務已恢復到歷史水平，同時我們繼續增強系統新訂單系統的功能和效率。我們預計，通貨膨脹帶來的成本增加將透過提高生產力、控製成本和策略定價行動得到部分緩解。鑑於競爭激烈的市場需求低迷，我們預計所有地區的價格壓力仍將持續存在。全球陶瓷和地板北美公司正在改善其產品組合，增加商業通路的參與度、高端系列的銷售以及最近推出的產品的性能。在世界其他地區，歐洲消費者對地板等大宗非必需品的需求處於較低水平，且產品混合，但利率下降可能會刺激需求。

Given these factors, we expect our second quarter adjusted EPS will be between $2.52 and $2.62 excluding any restructuring or other onetime charges. We remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of the flooring category given where we are in the housing cycle. To improve our results, we continue to reduce our cost structures, simplify our operations and product complexity and invest in new product features. When the Great Recession bottomed out, our industry rebounded dramatically growing more than 10% in subsequent years. Though we cannot predict the inflection point, we expect our results to significantly improve when the industry volumes return to historical levels.

考慮到這些因素，我們預計第二季調整後的每股盈餘將在 2.52 美元至 2.62 美元之間（不包括任何重組或其他一次性費用）。考慮到我們目前所處的房地產週期，我們仍然對地板類別的長期前景持樂觀態度。為了改善我們的業績，我們繼續降低成本結構，簡化營運和產品複雜性，並投資新的產品功能。當大衰退觸底時，我們的產業大幅反彈，在隨後的幾年裡成長了 10% 以上。雖然我們無法預測拐點，但我們預計，當產業規模恢復到歷史水準時，我們的業績將會顯著改善。

As with past economic cycles, we will emerge from this period operationally stronger and ready to provide our customers with superior products and service. We'll now be glad to take your questions.

與過去的經濟週期一樣，我們將走出這段時期，營運實力將更加強大，並隨時準備為客戶提供優質的產品和服務。我們現在很高興回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) John Lovallo, UBS.

（操作員指示）瑞銀 (UBS) 的 John Lovallo。

Maybe starting with the tariffs. You guys talked about an annualized cost impact of $50 million. I mean how should we sort of think about the timing of that coming through in 2025? I mean is there anything embedded in 2Q, or it's just more kind of a second half? And then you sort of mentioned your intention is to offset the impact with pricing actions and supply chain adjustments.

也許從關稅開始。你們談到了每年 5000 萬美元的成本影響。我的意思是，我們應該如何考慮 2025 年實現這一目標的時間？我的意思是，第二季度中是否存在什麼內含，或者它只是下半年的一部分？然後您提到，您的意圖是透過定價行動和供應鏈調整來抵消影響。

I mean any additional color there between the split of those buckets particularly considering that the pricing environment right now is fairly challenging.

我的意思是，在這些桶的劃分之間有任何額外的顏色，特別是考慮到目前的定價環境相當具有挑戰性。

Well, let me start, John, on your first question on timing. Obviously, as you know, we're on a FIFO accounting system, which means that as we start to purchase material that has a tariff on it, it will take somewhere between four and five months to kind of turn through the inventory. So this will be certainly more of a late third quarter, fourth quarter impact, giving us sufficient time to get pricing and other actions aligned. We've started announcing increases. We're going to continue assessing the timing of when we're going to announce the rest of them.

好吧，約翰，讓我先回答你關於時間的第一個問題。顯然，如您所知，我們採用先進先出會計系統，這意味著當我們開始購買帶有關稅的材料時，大約需要四到五個月的時間才能週轉庫存。因此，這肯定會對第三季末和第四季產生更大的影響，讓我們有足夠的時間來協調定價和其他行動。我們已經開始宣布漲價。我們將繼續評估何時宣布其餘消息。

We think that we've stopped importing product from China at this point already, and we're moving product between different suppliers and regions as we think is appropriate for what's going on. We'll continue adjusting as we need to.

我們認為我們現在已經停止從中國進口產品，並且我們正在不同的供應商和地區之間轉移產品，因為我們認為這適合當前的情況。我們將根據需要繼續進行調整。

Understood. And then the second question would be, if I remember correctly, about 40% of LVT came in from China last year. To the extent that the tariffs actually raised some of those import prices. I mean, how do you guys think about using your domestic capacity to either take some share or raise prices along with the rest of the industry? How do you sort of think about the balance there?

明白了。第二個問題是，如果我沒記錯的話，去年大約有 40% 的 LVT 來自中國。關稅實際上提高了部分進口產品的價格。我的意思是，你們如何考慮利用國內產能來佔據一些份額，或與業內其他公司一起提高價格？您如何看待那裡的平衡？

Well, our East and West Coast production capacity is obviously improving our service and logistics cost and position in the US market. We have a very good manufacturing footprint, which should advantage us with the increase in tariffs. And so going forward, we'll use a balance of source and manufacture goods to optimize our results, and we'll continue on focusing -- filling our existing capacity.

嗯，我們東海岸和西海岸的生產能力顯然正在改善我們在美國市場的服務和物流成本和地位。我們擁有非常好的製造業足跡，這在關稅上調時對我們有利。因此，展望未來，我們將利用貨源和製造產品的平衡來優化我們的業績，並且我們將繼續專注於填補我們現有的產能。

Matthew Bouley, Barclays Investment Bank.

巴克萊投資銀行的馬修‧布萊（Matthew Bouley）。

I guess sticking on that same topic of pricing power. I just wanted to press a little bit on kind of balancing that -- the environment that promotional, right, when you have slower demand in the industry. And you mentioned that the top sort of potential for more pricing pressure across geographies and at the same time you're announcing price increases going forward. So how do you think about that balance there? Is there a mix impact that can happen in that scenario, or maybe are there different categories that may see better pricing power relative to others?

我想繼續討論定價權這個話題。我只是想稍微強調一下平衡這一點——當行業需求放緩時，促銷環境就會變得如此。您提到，跨區定價壓力可能會加大，同時您也宣布未來價格將上漲。那麼您如何看待這種平衡？在這種情況下是否會發生混合影響，或者不同類別是否會比其他類別具有更好的定價能力？

Just any more color on that.

只需再添加一些顏色即可。

We think that the market is going to pass through the tariffs in our category with pricing actions is just starting to happen, and it's still evolving as we're going through at this point. We have announced price increases, and we are assessing the timing of the rest of them to pass it through. We think that the tariffs will increase our competitive position given all the local products that we make. There could be some movements between product categories within it as LVT in general goes up more than the other product categories, and it could benefit our alternatives like laminate, which is a an easy alternative for it, ceramic as well as even carpet may benefit as the costs go up and people try to manage it.

我們認為，市場將會透過定價行動來應對我們類別的關稅問題，而定價行動才剛開始發生，目前仍在不斷發展中。我們已經宣布了漲價，並且正在評估其餘產品的漲價時機。我們認為，考慮到我們生產的所有本地產品，關稅將提高我們的競爭地位。由於 LVT 的價格總體上比其他產品類別上漲幅度更大，因此其內部的產品類別之間可能會出現一些變動，這可能會使我們的替代品受益，例如層壓板，這是一種簡單的替代品，隨著成本的上升和人們試圖管理它，陶瓷甚至地毯都可能受益。

Got it. Okay. And then secondly, back on the $50 million of higher cost, I just wanted to get a little more detail. I guess that implies maybe you import sort of $500 million from other countries besides China. So just any color on what specifically, you do import which countries that may be because obviously, we just want to understand what can happen given what may change with each individual country's tariffs?

知道了。好的。其次，回到 5000 萬美元的更高成本問題，我只是想了解更多細節。我想這意味著你可能從中國以外的其他國家進口了大約 5 億美元。那麼具體來說，您會進口哪些國家的產品，因為顯然，我們只是想了解如果每個國家的關稅發生變化，會發生什麼情況？

Yes. So you're correct. The $500 million is obviously a whole different color of different products, majority LVT, but we import many other products. And then we are optimizing our supply chain continuously to minimize the duties and maximize our buying power across the world across the $500 million.

是的。所以你是對的。這 5 億美元顯然是完全不同顏色的不同產品，大部分是 LVT，但我們進口了許多其他產品。然後，我們不斷優化我們的供應鏈，以盡量減少關稅，並最大限度地提高我們在全球 5 億美元的購買力。

Rafe Jadrosich, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich。

I think last quarter, you guys spoke about sort of hoping to be able to grow EPS year-over-year, obviously, excluding the impact of the ERP issue in the first quarter. With the $50 million tariff hit, like how do you think about that playing out? And then like what are the puts and takes there?

我認為上個季度你們談到希望每股盈餘能夠年成長，顯然不包括第一季 ERP 問題的影響。面對 5000 萬美元的關稅衝擊，您認為後果會如何？那麼那裡的投入和產出是什麼？

I mean, as you know, it's going to be dependent on the market conditions, which are really unpredictable at this point. We think that the tariffs will be covered by price increases as we've said, and we think we'll get enough to cover the present tariffs. We'll have to see what happens after that. We're taking actions that we've gone through to mitigate the inflation by cutting our costs and restructuring, taking other costs out. Our flooring results this year will really depend on the activity level of the global economies, the interest rates, consumer spending and housing around the world.

我的意思是，如你所知，這將取決於市場狀況，而目前市場狀況確實難以預測。我們認為，正如我們所說的那樣，關稅將透過提高價格來彌補，而且我們認為我們將獲得足夠的收入來彌補目前的關稅。我們將拭目以待，看看之後會發生什麼。我們正在採取行動，透過削減成本、重組、消除其他成本來緩解通貨膨脹。我們今年的地板業績實際上將取決於全球經濟的活動水平、利率、消費者支出和世界各地的住房狀況。

And Ray, it's key, as Jeff said, our plan is to offset that $50 million through pricing and other supply chain initiatives. And if you exclude the system conversion, given the current positions, if the economy does stabilize, tariffs remain at the present level, and you should get some maybe potential interest rate falls, we could still exceed last year's results. Obviously, the alternative is the economies weaken and investments in housing, discretionary spending fall, our results would then certainly be under pressure.

雷，關鍵是，正如傑夫所說，我們的計劃是透過定價和其他供應鏈措施來抵消這 5000 萬美元。如果你排除系統轉換，考慮到目前的狀況，如果經濟確實穩定下來，關稅保持在先前的水平，並且你可能會得到一些潛在的利率下降，我們仍然可以超過去年的結果。顯然，另一種情況是經濟走弱，住房投資和可自由支配支出下降，那麼我們的業績肯定會面臨壓力。

That's helpful. And then just on the price cost outlook from here, I think it was a $40 million headwind in the first quarter. You've spoken about some price increases here and it looks like some of the input costs have declined more recently. Just how do we think about the price cost as we go through the year?

這很有幫助。然後從這裡的價格成本前景來看，我認為第一季的逆風是 4000 萬美元。您剛才談到了一些價格上漲，但看起來最近一些投入成本有所下降。那麼，我們該如何看待這一年的價格成本呢？

Well, material and energy costs increased towards the end of last year. And as I said about on the tariffs, that will begin to flow through really our results a little bit this quarter, but even into Q2 and Q3. We also have to absorb the increased cost of labor and benefits across the business. Now the cost of natural gas, you're correct, in the US and Europe recently has decreased, and that should benefit us as it flows through the inventory, but it will be later in the year.

嗯，去年年底材料和能源成本增加。正如我所說的關稅問題，這將在本季開始對我們的業績產生一定影響，甚至延續到第二季​​和第三季。我們還必須承擔整個企業增加的勞動力和福利成本。您說得對，美國和歐洲的天然氣成本最近有所下降，隨著天然氣流入庫存，這應該會為我們帶來好處，但這將在今年稍後發生。

We are increasing prices selectively and taking actions to really further reduce our cost, and we'll adjust as required, though competitive markets are making it more difficult and more challenging for increases.

我們正在選擇性地提高價格，並採取行動進一步降低成本，儘管競爭激烈的市場使漲價變得更加困難和具有挑戰性，但我們會根據需要進行調整。

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的蘇珊馬克拉里 (Susan Maklari)。

My first question is maybe just building on the outlook for 2025. Can you talk a bit more how you're thinking of the sequential lift from first quarter to the second quarter for both the top line and the margins. And then as we do think to the back half of the year, any thoughts on the margin expectations there especially as you think about Flooring North America and some of the various factors around some of the new products gaining momentum, the productivity initiatives relative to some of those headwinds that you've spoken about?

我的第一個問題可能只是基於 2025 年的展望。您能否再多談談您如何看待第一季到第二季營業收入和利潤率的環比成長？然後，當我們考慮下半年時，您對利潤預期有什麼看法，特別是當您考慮北美地板和一些新產品獲得動力的各種因素，以及與您所談到的一些不利因素相關的生產力舉措？

As you look for the rest of the year, the government policies are slowing the economy and reducing consumer confidence, which is lowering the housing and remodeling activity. As we said, we've begun price increases and expect to compensate for the present tariff levels, and we'll have to adjust if they change. We'll benefit from the restructuring savings of more than $70 million left for the balance of the year. We are driving additional productivity to reduce our cost structure to help offset it. We anticipate some tailwinds in the fourth quarter from lower energy.

展望今年剩餘時間，政府政策正在減緩經濟發展並降低消費者信心，從而降低住房和改造活動。正如我們所說，我們已經開始提高價格，並希望彌補目前的關稅水平，如果關稅發生變化，我們就必須進行調整。我們將受益於今年剩餘的 7000 多萬美元重組節省。我們正在提高生產力，以降低成本結構，從而抵消其影響。我們預計第四季能源價格下降會帶來一些利多。

Our interest cost this year will also be lower given that we've reduced our debt and the interest income is higher. And then we still see a potential that central banks are reducing rates and could stimulate growth, which could help our category in Europe, they keep the rates should be getting low enough to help if the consumer confidence will help it a little bit. And we continue to be flexible and will continue to adjust to the changing environment.

由於我們減少了債務且利息收入較高，我們今年的利息成本也會較低。然後，我們仍然看到各國央行降低利率並可能刺激成長的可能性，這可能對我們在歐洲的類別有所幫助，如果消費者信心有一點幫助，他們應該將利率保持在足夠低的水平以提供幫助。我們將繼續保持靈活性並不斷適應不斷變化的環境。

Okay. That's helpful, Jeff. And then it was good to hear and see that you bought back some stock again this quarter. Can you talk a bit to your thoughts on capital allocation in this environment? And maybe with that to Mohawk's ability to continue to generate really strong free cash flows even in a tougher macro.

好的。這很有幫助，傑夫。很高興聽到並看到您本季再次回購了一些股票。您能否談談您對這種環境下資本配置的看法？也許正因如此，即使在宏觀經濟情勢更加嚴峻的情況下，莫霍克仍然有能力繼續產生強勁的自由現金流。

Yes, Susan. We still forecast, even with the used cash in the first quarter, strong free cash flow for the total year. I mentioned that CapEx forecast is about $530 million. But we may reduce that depending on as conditions materialize for the balance of the year. We did buy back about $26 million, and we'll continue to use that as part of our overall capital allocation strategy.

是的，蘇珊。即使第一季使用了現金，我們仍然預測全年仍將有強勁的自由現金流。我提到資本支出預測約 5.3 億美元。但我們可能會根據今年餘下情況的進展減少這筆金額。我們確實回購了約 2600 萬美元，我們將繼續將其作為我們整體資本配置策略的一部分。

Collin Verron, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的科林‧維隆 (Collin Verron)。

For North America sales, they were down modestly in the quarter, but when you start to parse out sort of the system conversion impact, it looks like sales could have been up low single digits. First, is that the right way to think about it? And if it is, can you just talk about what's driving that improvement, either by end markets or product categories? And do you think you saw any pull forward just as customers got ahead of the tariffs here.

就北美銷售額而言，本季略有下降，但當你開始分析系統轉換的影響時，看起來銷售額可能會成長個位數。首先，這是正確的思考方式嗎？如果是的話，您能否談談推動這種改善的因素，無論是終端市場還是產品類別？您是否認為，當客戶領先於這裡的關稅時，您看到了任何拉動？

Yes. So in the Flooring North America, our performance was in line with expectations as our shipments recovered well from the disruption that was caused by the order system conversion. Although residential remodeling is at low levels because of low housing turnover, elevated interest rates, and weakening consumer confidence, and we performed well in the market. We are capturing volume share with differentiated products and promotions. And also, our commercial business performed quite well.

是的。因此，在北美地板市場，我們的表現符合預期，因為我們的出貨量從訂單系統轉換造成的中斷中恢復得很好。儘管由於房屋週轉率低、利率上升和消費者信心減弱，住宅改造處於較低水平，但我們在市場上表現良好。我們正在透過差異化產品和促銷來搶佔銷售份額。而且我們的商業業務表現也相當不錯。

In North America -- in the Flooring North America segment and in the Daltile business, we have a larger exposure to commercial than in our other businesses. And so commercial is holding up well. and pricing is more resilient, and we are increasing investments in that segment.

在北美—在北美地板部門和 Daltile 業務中，我們對商業的關注度比其他業務更大。因此商業表現良好，定價也更具彈性，我們正在增加對該領域的投資。

Great. That's helpful color. And I guess just following up on that, how sustainable are those trends in commercial just given sort of the uncertain backdrop. Have you seen any changes sort of in customer behavior as you look out into sort of projects that might hit in the back half of the year, or is it still pretty strong relative to the other end markets?

偉大的。這是很有幫助的顏色。我想繼續追問，考慮到不確定的背景，這些商業趨勢的可持續性如何。當您展望下半年可能開展的專案時，您是否發現客戶行為有任何變化，或者相對於其他終端市場而言，客戶行為是否仍然相當強勁？

Yes, you're correct that we are, of course, still benefiting from projects that were started last year. But at this time, we don't see the incoming orders on commercial projects tapering down. And so we are hopeful for the remainder of the year that this continues.

是的，您說得對，我們當然仍然受益於去年啟動的專案。但目前，我們並沒有看到商業項目的訂單減少。因此，我們希望今年剩餘時間這種情況能夠持續下去。

Keith Hughes, Truist.

基斯·休斯，Truist。

I think in prepared statements, you said that price mix was up in both Ceramic and Flooring North America. I think that's the first time in a couple of years, but we've seen that. Can you talk about what's going on in those sectors driving that up?

我認為在準備好的聲明中，您曾說過北美陶瓷和地板的價格組合都上漲了。我認為這是幾年來的第一次，但我們已經看到了。您能談談這些產業中推動這項成長的原因嗎？

Well, in Flooring in North America and in Global Ceramic, you are seeing the premium -- first of all, you're seeing the premium products do well, both on the higher end for carpet, laminate, porcelain slab in Europe. And then also, you have that mix of channel that Paul just described, where commercial, which is a larger piece of -- for North America and global ceramic compared to Flooring Rest of the World, has done well so far this year, which is also helping their mix. So it's -- Keith, it's really a combination of a little bit of product mix and a little bit of channel mix.

嗯，在北美的地板和全球陶瓷領域，你會看到高端產品——首先，你會看到高端產品表現良好，無論是在歐洲的地毯、層壓板還是瓷磚的高端領域。然後，你還有保羅剛才描述的渠道組合，其中商業渠道佔了更大的份額——與世界其他地區的地板相比，北美和全球陶瓷的商業渠道今年到目前為止表現良好，這也有助於他們的組合。所以——基思，這其實是一點產品組合和一點管道組合的結合。

Second question, as you look in North America, specifically on LVT, the vast majority is imported. The United States somewhat asked asked earlier, when do you think the price is the price result of everything that's going on? And how long is that going to take to hit the industry?

第二個問題，看看北美，特別是 LVT，絕大多數都是進口的。美國剛才有些問，您認為什麼時候價格是所有正在發生的事情的價格結果？這需要多長時間才能對整個產業產生影響？

Well, we and market participants have already increased prices to compensate for these tariffs. And as the tariffs change, the industry will highly likely push those through with more price increase.

嗯，我們和市場參與者已經提高了價格來補償這些關稅。隨著關稅的變化，該行業很可能會透過進一步提高價格來推動這些變化。

The announcements are just going out on the pricing but different pieces and the implementation will go through. We think you're going to see it as we go through the second quarter, we're going to see more and more of it getting into the marketplace.

公告只是涉及定價，其他部分和實施仍需通過。我們認為，隨著我們進入第二季度，您將會看到越來越多的產品進入市場。

Is there enough inventory out there to kind of carry through the second quarter before the impact, or are we going to say it before then?

在影響發生之前，是否有足夠的庫存來支撐第二季度的運營，或者說，在影響發生之前是否有足夠的庫存來支撐第二季度的運營？

It depends on each -- in us, he said it was probably going to be somewhere in the third quarter before we flow through the inventory.

這取決於我們每個人的情況，他說，在我們用完庫存之前，可能會在第三季的某個時候。

Tim Wojs, Baird.

提姆·沃伊斯，貝爾德。

Maybe just to kind of of hop on the Keith's question. Just -- is there a way that you could kind of give us some color on just what those competitive price increases are in terms of percentages or dollars and kind of what you're thinking, various kind of import competitors are going to have to raise prices? I mean, is there a way that you can just kind of frame how much imports might have to go up in terms of price relative to domestically manufactured products?

也許只是為了回答 Keith 的問題。只是——您能否以百分比或美元的形式向我們介紹一下這些競爭性價格上漲的具體數額，以及您認為各種進口競爭對手將不得不提高的價格？我的意思是，有沒有辦法可以估算進口產品相對於國內製造的產品的價格可能會上漲多少？

It's really too early to tell. They're just getting out there. The announced increases of some of them are somewhere around 8% at the moment, but that's only for a portion of it. We'll have to see how they average out, and what they're going to end up with at the end. It's just -- the first announcements are just rough directions of where it's going, then they get to the individual product prices don't come out until later.

現在說還太早。他們剛剛走出去。目前，其中一些國家宣布的漲幅約為8%，但這只是其中的一部分。我們必須看看它們的平均結果如何，以及最終的結果如何。只是──第一批公告只是大致指明了方向，之後他們才會公佈具體產品的價格。

Okay. And would you raise price by less and focus on volume? I mean, is there -- would there be a real opportunity for you to pick up placements and pick up share, especially in retail.

好的。您是否會減少漲價幅度並專注於銷售？我的意思是，是否存在一個真正的機會讓您獲得位置並獲得份額，特別是在零售領域。

We're really going to have to see how the announcements come out, when they are, what the amounts are. And again, we also have to make sure that whatever is going to happen with inflation in the US also. So we're going to take all those to account, and it will solidify probably over the next 30, 45 days.

我們真的需要看看公告如何發布、何時發布、金額是多少。而且，我們還必須確保美國的通貨膨脹也將隨之發生。因此，我們將把所有這些都考慮進去，並可能在接下來的 30 到 45 天內逐漸鞏固。

Tim, is we really focus back on the fact that our domestic capacity, as Jeff had previously said. And if you think about our capacity in the US on -- from ceramic tile, carpet laminate, cheap vinyl, LVT and Cortez countertop, it really puts us in an advantaged situation as these tariffs increase.

提姆，正如傑夫之前所說的那樣，我們真的重新關注我們的國內產能這一事實。如果你考慮一下我們在美國的產能——從瓷磚、地毯層壓板、廉價乙烯基、LVT 到 Cortez 檯面，隨著關稅的增加，我們確實處於有利地位。

Okay. Okay. And then just thinking about productivity, I mean, it seems like just given the general pressure on price kind of ex tariffs that if you continue to see sluggish demand, I mean we're going to get to a point where pricing keeps going down maybe and you have to kind of do bigger, chunkier productivity kind of improvements again. I mean is there something three to six months from now where the volume environment still hasn't improved, and there's another kind of reassessment of the footprint. Or have you taken as many actions as you can in this environment and everything else is going to be kind of smaller.

好的。好的。然後想想生產力，我的意思是，考慮到價格的總體壓力（例如關稅），如果繼續看到需求低迷，我們可能會達到一個價格持續下降的點，而你必須再次進行更大、更實質性的生產力改進。我的意思是，從現在起三到六個月內，容量環境是否仍未改善，並且需要對足跡進行另一種重新評估。或者，在這種環境下，你已經採取了盡可能多的行動，其他一切都將變得更小。

Listen, start out with. I'm not sure this -- our category of flooring when the interest rate started falling in '22, the industry has been going down since then. I'm not so sure how much there is left to go down as you go through. As if on the other side with our own stuff, we're continuing to take cost out. We have the balance of $100 million, $70 million.

聽著，開始吧。我不確定這一點——當 2022 年利率開始下降時，我們的地板類別自那時起就一直在走下坡路。我不太確定當你走過時還剩下多少路要走。就好像在另一邊，我們用自己的產品繼續降低成本。我們的餘額有 1 億美元、7000 萬美元。

We're looking at additional productivity actions we can take. And if we can find more, we're going to take them.

我們正在研究可以採取的其他提高生產力的措施。如果我們能找到更多，我們就會把它們拿走。

And that $70 million is just on the restructuring savings. So we still have ongoing initiatives just kind of a day-to-day looking at each of the facilities.

這 7,000 萬美元只是重組節省的資金。因此，我們仍在持續進行各項舉措，每天檢查每個設施。

Adam Bamgarten, Zelman.

亞當·班加滕，澤爾曼。

Just on the positive price mix in Flooring North America and Global Ceramic, it sounds like it was mix driven. Can you give us some color on how pricing behaves, was it down or maybe closer to flattish?

僅從北美地板和全球陶瓷的積極價格組合來看，聽起來就像是由組合驅動的。您能否向我們介紹一下價格走勢，是下降了還是接近持平？

No, we did take some selective price increases in some of our more premium ceramic products. We also took price increases in our laminate flooring business because of higher input costs. And so we're continuing to look very strategically where we can take price to compensate some of the inflation that is in the market right now. So we're continuously working on it on all categories.

不，我們確實對一些更優質的陶瓷產品進行了選擇性漲價。由於投入成本上升，我們的強化木地板業務也漲價了。因此，我們將繼續從策略角度研究如何透過價格來彌補目前市場上的部分通膨。因此，我們正在所有類別上持續努力。

Okay. Got it. And then just on the cost side, just with oil prices down, I think that's historically the benefit from a cost perspective in areas like Flooring North America. Do you expect that to flow through at some point later in the year as well? I know you mentioned nat gas costs in being a positive, but maybe as it relates to oil and the timing there?

好的。知道了。然後就成本方面而言，隨著油價下跌，我認為從成本角度來看，北美地板等地區的歷史收益是可以預見的。您是否預計這一情況在今年稍後也會發生？我知道您提到天然氣成本是正面的，但也許它與石油和時機有關？

Well, as we said, we have seen natural gas prices come down, which we believe we should get some benefit later in the year from our energy costs. In terms of raw materials, we really haven't seen a whole lot at this point. But you're right, if any petrochemicals stayed down longer, that would help us. But again, it would have to flow through inventory, so it would be more of a second half later in the year benefit.

嗯，正如我們所說，我們已經看到天然氣價格下降，我們相信今年稍後我們的能源成本會下降。就原料而言，目前我們確實還沒有看到太多。但您說得對，如果任何石化產品價格能夠維持更長時間，對我們都會有幫助。但同樣，它必須流經庫存，因此它更多的是今年下半年的收益。

Brian Biros, Thompson Research Group.

布萊恩·比羅斯（Brian Biros），湯普森研究小組。

Can you expand on the earlier question about balancing your market share versus price and margin? And I guess between the two options, are you more inclined to take share or protect margins and keep your current market share?

您能否詳細解釋一下先前關於平衡市場佔有率與價格和利潤的問題？我想，在這兩種選擇之間，您更傾向於佔領市場份額還是保護利潤率並保持當前的市場份額？

Look, we're always trying to take market share in the markets. We never lead with price to take market share, but we focus on our vast portfolio of differentiated products and phenomenal innovations that we have, so we focus on that. And we focus on our service capabilities. We focus on our quality capabilities in the market, and we never really use price to drive market share, and we will continue to do that.

你看，我們一直在努力佔領市場。我們從不以價格領先來搶佔市場份額，而是專注於我們擁有的大量差異化產品和非凡的創新，所以我們專注於此。我們專注於我們的服務能力。我們專注於市場上的品質能力，我們從不真正使用價格來推動市場份額，我們將繼續這樣做。

Also, given where the markets are, the prices are pretty compressed everywhere in almost all the markets because everybody has excess capacity the costs are the same, whether you run or you don't, in many cases. So one of the reasons our margins are as low as they are, is we're three years into this downturn in volume. At some point, it's got to turn up, and when it does, it's going to go back to the historical trends, and we're going to have multiple years of historically high growth rate feature.

此外，考慮到市場所在位置，幾乎所有市場的價格都相當低迷，因為每個人都有過剩的產能，所以在很多情況下，無論你是否運營，成本都是相同的。因此，我們的利潤率如此低的原因之一是，我們的銷量已經陷入了三年的下滑。在某個時候，它必須出現，當它出現時，它將回到歷史趨勢，我們將擁有多年的歷史高成長率特徵。

Got it. And secondly, can you talk about, I guess, your inventory levels, and I guess really the levels in the channel. Is there any work down that needs to be done there? You talked about some advanced imports on your part we heard there was some maybe pre activity in the retail channel in advance of the price increases as well. So just wondering kind of how that all sits now with the weaker market facility, and how that might flow back through the supply chain.

知道了。其次，您能否談談您的庫存水平，以及渠道中的庫存水平？那裡還有什麼工作要完成嗎？您談到了一些提前進口的情況，我們聽說在價格上漲之前，零售通路可能也進行了一些預先活動。所以我只是想知道，在市場機制較弱的情況下，這一切會如何發展，以及這會如何透過供應鏈回流。

Well, I'll start with our inventory, and it did increase about $80 million. And as I previously said, it's primarily due to the increase in imported goods ahead of the new tariffs. And given the possibility of tariffs increasing further, we'll expect to kind of hold that at this level for -- really for the time being.

好吧，我先從我們的庫存開始，它確實增加了約 8000 萬美元。正如我之前所說，這主要是由於新關稅實施前進口商品增加所致。考慮到關稅可能進一步上調，我們預計目前關稅水準將維持在這一水準。

We haven't seen a significant change we can identify with the customers, given that we haven't announced price increases. We haven't seen a large increase in the downstream volumes from us.

鑑於我們尚未宣布漲價，我們尚未看到客戶認同的重大變化。我們尚未看到下游產量大幅增加。

Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的麥可雷豪特。

First, I just wanted to get a little more granularity on -- in Flooring North America, where you've put across some incremental pricing. What type of impact from a percent revenue basis should we be thinking about for 2Q and 3Q as it currently stands with what you've announced so far?

首先，我只是想更詳細地了解一下——在北美地板行業，你們已經提出了一些增量定價。就您目前宣布的情況來看，我們應該考慮第二季和第三季百分比收入基礎上的哪些影響？

Michael, at this point, as Paul said, it's really been more on a selective basis to offset some increases, short-term increases in raw material, I would expect as we go through the year, as Jeff indicated, with the demand being constrained to continue to see pressure on pricing, which is why it's so good to see that we're getting benefit from mix, both on our premium products and with the strength of the commercial channel.

邁克爾，目前，正如保羅所說，我們實際上更多的是在有選擇的基礎上抵消一些增長，原材料的短期增長，我預計，正如傑夫指出的那樣，隨著需求的減少，我們全年將繼續面臨定價壓力，這就是為什麼我們很高興看到我們從混合中獲益，無論是我們的優質產品還是商業渠道的優勢。

Okay. I guess secondly, on the roughly $500 million of imports that you expect the $50 million tariff hit. Just circling back to that, if you could break down, it would be appreciated, which countries those come from either order of magnitude or a rough down of the top two, three, four countries that you're getting that $500 million from that would be very helpful.

好的。其次，您預計約 5 億美元的進口商品將受到 5,000 萬美元的關稅衝擊。回到剛才的問題，如果您能細分一下，我們將非常感激，這些國家來自哪個數量級，或者粗略地列出這 5 億美元來自哪兩個、三個、四個國家，這將非常有幫助。

Yes. So the $500 million or the tariff imports, of course. As Jeff said, we have barely any exposure to China, which is obviously a good thing. And then besides that, a big component of that $500 million is LVT. And a large component of that comes out of Vietnam.

是的。所以當然是 5 億美元或關稅進口。正如傑夫所說，我們幾乎沒有接觸過中國，這顯然是一件好事。除此之外，這 5 億美元中很大一部分是 LVT。其中很大一部分來自越南。

And then we have also other countries we source from like India. We have countries we source from like Korea. That would be the main ones. And then I can also remind you that Mexico or the products that we make in Mexico are non-tariff at this moment. And so these are not part of this $500 million.

此外，我們也從其他國家採購，例如印度。我們從韓國等國家採購。這些就是主要的。然後我也可以提醒你，墨西哥或我們在墨西哥生產的產品目前是非關稅的。所以這些不屬於這 5 億美元的一部分。

We have tariffs all over the place from countertops coming in from different countries and other product categories as well. Ceramic, we're buying from different ones to supplement our total portfolio.

我們對來自不同國家的檯面以及其他產品類別的進口都徵收關稅。陶瓷，我們從不同的公司購買以補充我們的總產品組合。

Stephen Kim, Evercore.

史蒂芬金 (Stephen Kim)，Evercore。

Kind of two issues kind of working in opposite directions. On the one hand, you obviously have less tariff exposure than probably a lot of your competitors. And on the other side, you also have been leaning into the premium kind of product selection, particularly in North America. But I believe most of those products are imported and so maybe a little more exposed to the tariffs. So let me start with that part first.

兩種問題似乎朝著相反的方向發展。一方面，你們的關稅風險顯然比許多競爭對手還要小。另一方面，你們也一直傾向於高端產品選擇，尤其是在北美。但我相信大多數產品都是進口的，因此可能更容易受到關稅的影響。那麼讓我先從那部分開始。

So on the higher-end products in Flooring North America and ceramic, how much is imported? Would you say the majority of it is important. And is it your view that the tariffs and the necessary pricing to cover the tariffs, would crimp demand there, or is it your view that, that customer is pretty immune. And so you're just going to continue to target the higher end consumer there. You continue to lead into it and just figure lean into it and just figure you'll just drive pricing to cover that, and that really will not suffer from a demand perspective due to price?

那麼北美地板和陶瓷等高端產品進口量有多少呢？您是否認為其中大部分都很重要？您是否認為關稅和覆蓋關稅所需的定價會抑制那裡的需求，或者您是否認為客戶不會受到影響。因此，你將繼續瞄準那裡的高端消費者。您是否繼續引領這一趨勢並試圖傾向於這一趨勢並試圖推動定價來彌補這一缺陷，而這真的不會因價格而受到需求方面的影響？

There's two parts to the question. One part is that over the last few years, we have increased the capabilities of our US manufacturing and we have continued to push up the value proposition of the US manufacturer. On the other hand, a super high premium all comes out of Italy, and we're buying it from our own facilities, and it's going to keep coming over and they're in alternatives for us to either consumer is going to pay more for it or they'll move to some lower value options.

這個問題分為兩部分。一方面，在過去的幾年裡，我們提升了美國製造業的能力，並不斷提升美國製造商的價值主張。另一方面，超高溢價全部來自義大利，我們從自己的工廠購買，而且會繼續供應，我們有兩種選擇：要么消費者支付更多，要么轉向一些價值較低的選擇。

My understanding, though, I think you showed the Karastan Black, and I think there was also the Karastan LVT, if I'm not mistaken, the WCC product. And those are those imported products?

不過，我的理解是，我認為您展示了 Karastan Black，如果我沒記錯的話，我認為還有 Karastan LVT，即 WCC 產品。那些都是進口產品嗎？

Some are, some aren't. The -- some of the high-end wood products we import from our own facilities in Australia. Other cases, we import some from India and in other cases, part of the collection we manufacture here. So all of the above.

有些是，有些不是。我們從澳洲自己的工廠進口一些高端木製品。其他情況下，我們從印度進口一些，在其他情況下，我們在這裡生產部分產品。以上就是全部內容。

So you can't really say that all the premium is imported in the mid is made in America. I mean, we are very focused on getting the right products with the right price comes from the right plant within Mohawk or from the right supplier, and so we're optimizing the full product line.

因此，您不能說所有進口的優質產品都是美國製造的。我的意思是，我們非常注重從莫霍克內部的正確工廠或正確的供應商處獲得以正確價格提供的正確產品，因此我們正在優化整個產品線。

Okay. Yes, that makes sense. Okay. Then the second question relates to sort of the opportunistic pricing opportunity. I guess that maybe some others have touched on.

好的。是的，這很有道理。好的。第二個問題與機會定價機會有關。我想也許其他人也已經談到了這一點。

So you talked about the fact that you have FIFO accounting and that, therefore, it's going to take a certain amount of time. I think you said late 3Q before the impact flow through from any potential tariffs. And yet, the -- your competitors are not all on FIFO, obviously. And so they're putting through pricing, it seems like probably a little bit earlier than you might need, is it reasonable to think, therefore, that you might actually see price/cost be a near-term positive perhaps in late 2Q, Q3 into 3Q. And then you would have the offset to that on the back end, maybe sometime in the future when pricing decelerates.

所以您談到了這樣一個事實：您採用先進先出會計，因此，這將花費一定的時間。我認為您說的是第三季末，在任何潛在關稅產生影響之前。然而，顯然您的競爭對手並非全都採用先進先出 (FIFO) 原則。因此，他們正在製定定價，這似乎可能比您需要的要早一點，因此，您是否可以合理地認為，您可能會在第二季末、第三季到第三季看到價格/成本在短期內呈現正成長？然後你就會在後端得到抵消，也許是在未來某個時候，當價格下降時。

But in the near term, you would actually potentially see a price cost benefit. Is that a reasonable possibility?

但在短期內，你實際上可能會看到價格成本效益。這是一個合理的可能性嗎？

Anything possible. What happens is there's not enough information in the marketplace where the prices are going to go, how they're going to get implemented and the structures of them, and we're waiting to adjust to the market circumstances.

一切皆有可能。實際情況是，市場上沒有足夠的資訊來了解價格走向、價格如何實施以及價格結構，我們正在等待根據市場情況進行調整。

Due to price increases that have been announced are very specific at this point. So we'll have to see how it evolves. But as I said earlier, you -- we still have the higher cost material and energy that was purchased at the end of the year that will flow through. So that has nothing to do with the tariffs. And the general demand outside of tariffs is still very, very competitive.

由於目前已宣布的價格上漲非常具體。所以我們必須觀察它如何發展。但正如我之前所說，我們仍然需要在年底購買成本更高的材料和能源。所以與關稅無關。關稅之外的整體需求仍然非常具有競爭力。

Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

特雷弗·阿林森（Trevor Allinson），沃爾夫研究公司。

First one, I just want to follow up on some of the energy commentary with nat gas prices coming down here. Can you quantify what do you expect the energy cost headwind to be that's assumed in your 2Q guide? And then you're talking about some benefits of lower nat gas by the fourth quarter. Are you talking about just less inflation from nat gas in the fourth quarter? Are you actually expecting nat gas to turn into a tailwind on the year-over-year by the fourth quarter?

首先，我只是想跟進一些有關天然氣價格下降的能源評論。您能否量化您在第二季指南中假設的能源成本逆風預計是多少？然後您談到了第四季度天然氣價格下降的一些好處。您說的只是第四季天然氣通膨下降嗎？您是否真的預計天然氣銷售將在第四季成為年比強勁成長的動力？

When I look at the input costs in total in the first quarter was just over $40 million, as I previously noted, I would expect that to be slightly higher in the second quarter. And again, that's driven by all three main categories of raw materials, wages and benefits, and energy. So all three of those. So I would expect the impact of inflation from a year-over-year perspective that was considered in our guidance to be higher in Q2 versus Q1. And then the second part of your question, again, it really depends on the stability of that natural gas prices -- it could just be sequentially, it could be better as we get into the fourth quarter.

正如我之前提到的，當我看到第一季的總投入成本略高於 4000 萬美元時，我預計第二季的投入成本會略高一些。再次強調，這是由原料、工資和福利以及能源這三大主要類別所推動的。所以這三個都是。因此，我預計，從同比角度來看，我們指導意見中考慮的通膨影響在第二季將高於第一季。然後，關於你問題的第二部分，這實際上取決於天然氣價格的穩定性——它可能只是連續的，進入第四季度後可能會更好。

But from a year-over-year standpoint, it really depends on where that price lands over the next -- really the next quarter.

但從同比角度來看，這實際上取決於下一季（實際上是下一季）的價格水平。

Okay. Got you. Makes sense. And a question on Europe and perhaps maybe the knock-on effects of US tariffs on China.

好的。明白了。有道理。還有一個關於歐洲的問題，也許是關於美國關稅對中國的連鎖影響。

If US competitors who are currently importing LVD from China specifically, if they begin sourcing from other countries, do you see a risk of Chinese LVT finding its way into the European market and perhaps weighing on pricing in Europe?

如果目前專門從中國進口 LVD 的美國競爭對手開始從其他國家採購，您是否認為中國 LVT 有可能進入歐洲市場並可能對歐洲的定價產生影響？

Europe is already importing vast amounts of China produced LVT at this moment. And so the market is saturated with the products and the demand of the market is satisfied, so we don't really expect any additional cost or price pressure in the European markets, given all the changes. And we do expect the China supply chain to move to other countries for the US, of course.

目前歐洲已進口大量中國生產的LVT。因此，市場上的產品已經飽和，市場的需求也得到了滿足，因此，考慮到所有這些變化，我們實際上並不認為歐洲市場會出現任何額外的成本或價格壓力。當然，我們確實預期中國的供應鏈將轉移到美國的其他國家。

Phil Ng, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的 Phil Ng。

Curious to get your thoughts on intra-quarter trends in 1Q, and how April has kind of progressed by geography. Certainly, North America is particularly hard hit with consumer confidence coming down. with tariffs and whatnot. But curious to get your thoughts on just broadly, broadly worldwide, how you're seeing trends kind of progress in your quarter and into April?

我很好奇您對第一季的季度內趨勢的看法，以及四月份按地域劃分的進展。當然，北美受到的打擊尤其嚴重，消費者信心下降，關稅等等。但我很好奇，您想了解一下從全球範圍來看，您如何看待本季和四月份的趨勢進展？

Listen, we're anticipating continued slow conditions. It doesn't matter what country we're in. We're seeing lower consumer confidence and business investments being pushed out. Again, home sales and remodeling have been on a downturn across the entire world. And that what we don't know is outside the US, we've seen interest rates start falling mainly in Europe and that could help demand.

聽著，我們預期緩慢的狀況還會持續下去。我們身處哪個國家並不重要。我們看到消費者信心下降，商業投資受到擠壓。再次，全球的房屋銷售和裝潢都呈現下滑趨勢。我們不知道的是，在美國以外，我們已經看到利率開始下降，主要是在歐洲，這可能有助於需求。

But up to this moment, we haven't seen it yet. The tariff impact is still evolving around the world and the countries that we're in that are shipping products here, it's too early to tell how it's going to impact those economies as we go through. We do expect inflation to keep being a problem, and we're thinking it's going to be mitigated through our strategic pricing, productivity, cost containment and product mix as we go into the second quarter.

但到目前為止，我們還沒有看到它。關稅的影響仍在世界各地不斷演變，對於向我們運送產品的國家來說，現在判斷它將如何影響這些經濟體還為時過早。我們確實預計通貨膨脹將繼續成為一個問題，我們認為，進入第二季度，我們將透過策略定價、生產力、成本控制和產品組合來緩解通貨膨脹。

Jeff, I'm trying to gauge just like April. I mean, certainly March and February softened, but did April get worse, or has it kind of stabilized? I'm just trying to get a gauze from that standpoint.

傑夫，我正在嘗試像艾普麗爾一樣進行衡量。我的意思是，三月和二月的情況確實有所緩和，但四月的情況是否變得更糟了，還是已經趨於穩定？我只是想從那個角度來獲取紗布。

I think it followed the same trends that we've been at so far.

我認為它遵循了我們迄今為止所經歷的相同趨勢。

Okay. So some level of stability. And then for Jim, a lot of moving pieces. The FIFO piece gives you some line of sight on (inaudible) But based on what you know today, would you expect (inaudible) to kind of in terms of year-over-year inflation peaking in 2Q? Or that could actually get materially worse in the back half and certainly from a price cost standpoint, lot of moving pieces on pricing. How do you see that equation kind of evolving from a price cost standpoint as well. I kind of your biggest pinch point quarter, or it actually could get worse in the back half?

好的。因此具有一定程度的穩定性。對吉姆來說，有很多令人感動的事情。FIFO 部分為您提供了一些關於（聽不清楚）的信息，但根據您今天所了解的情況，您是否預計（聽不清楚）通膨率將在第二季度達到同比峰值？或者說，下半年的情況可能會變得更糟，而且從價格成本的角度來看，定價方面有很多變動。從價格成本的角度來看，您如何看待這種等式的演變？我有點像你們最大的痛點季度，或者實際上下半年情況可能會變得更糟？

First, we have to see if the lower oil prices follows through with changing the commodity prices that are related to it. To remind you, we have outside of the plastic pieces, we have large businesses in ceramic that have limited use of it, wood products that aren't impacted by it. So at this point, there's a possibility to come down or there's a possibility that the supply chain, given the low margins that they're at, we're not sure what's going to happen.

首先，我們要看油價下跌是否會造成相關大宗商品價格的變動。提醒您，除了塑膠零件之外，我們還有大型陶瓷企業，它們對它的使用有限，而木製品則不會受到影響。因此，目前來看，利潤率有可能下降，或者供應鏈有可能下降，考慮到利潤率較低，我們不確定會發生什麼。

Laura Champine, Loop Capital.

勞拉·尚皮恩（Laura Champine），Loop Capital。

I'm wondering if there's a material amount of product that you're going to resource into your US facilities? And if so, what the short-term costs might be of moving that production, and what the longer-term sort of capacity utilization benefits might be?

我想知道您是否會將大量產品供應到您的美國工廠？如果是這樣，轉移生產的短期成本可能是多少，長期產能利用率效益又可能是多少？

I'm assuming you asked that question on LVT.

我假設您在 LVT 上問了這個問題。

Yes. Ceramic, I guess it's a good question for ceramic too because I know you make some in Mexico that you import here. I'm not sure what the plan is there.

是的。陶瓷，我想這對陶瓷來說也是一個很好的問題，因為我知道你們在墨西哥生產一些陶瓷然後進口到這裡。我不確定那裡有什麼計劃。

The Mexican stuff doesn't have any tariffs because of the USMCA. So there's no changes in it. So given the impact of the tariffs, we're obviously going to balance our internal resources with our external supply. Not all products can be made in our factories, not all products can be sourced. So we have some limitations there.

由於 USMCA，墨西哥產品不徵收任何關稅。所以沒有什麼變化。因此，考慮到關稅的影響，我們顯然會平衡內部資源和外部供應。並非所有產品都能在我們的工廠生產，並非所有產品都能採購。所以我們在這方面有一些限制。

But as we move forward, we're going to continue to maximize the capacity utilization of our internal factories, and we have a little bit of capacity at this moment across the two categories we just discussed, and we will also continue to import from the appropriate locations, minimizing our cost and minimizing our import duties.

但隨著我們前進，我們將繼續最大限度地提高內部工廠的產能利用率，目前我們在剛才討論的兩個類別中都有一些產能，我們還將繼續從適當的地點進口，最大限度地降低成本和進口關稅。

Got it. And then a quick follow-up on the your comments on Chinese production impacting the European business. I'm aware that you're already there, but an influx impact your pricing there, and are you already accounting for that in your plans for this year?

知道了。然後快速跟進您對中國生產影響歐洲業務的評論。我知道您已經在那裡了，但是大量湧入會影響您在那裡的定價，您是否已經將這一情況考慮到今年的計劃中？

We don't know exactly what's going to happen with the Chinese producers. We know the prices are already low in the European market, and I'm not sure there's a lot lower to get is it. So we'll have to see.

我們不知道中國生產商究竟會發生什麼事。我們知道歐洲市場的價格已經很低了，但我不確定還能降到更低的價格。所以我們得拭目以待。

Mike Dahl, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Mike Dahl。

I want to circle back on channel inventories. I know you mentioned, Jeff, you haven't necessarily seen a meaningful difference in customer activity, but 1 of the large foreign retailers last night seemed to suggest that they had done a material amount of prebuy specifically with some Chinese product. And our sense has been home centers have done some. So do you just not have the level of intelligence in the market to at a market level to get granular into your customers and see those inventory positions, or are you seeing something different there?

我想重新討論渠道庫存。傑夫，我知道你提到過，你不一定看到客戶活動有顯著差異，但昨晚一家大型外國零售商似乎表示，他們已經針對某些中國產品進行了大量預購。我們的感覺是家居中心已經做了一些。那麼，您是否還不具備市場情報水平，無法在市場層面上深入了解您的客戶並了解庫存狀況，還是您看到了一些不同的東西？

I thought I answered a different question. The question was, have they increased the inventories of my products in their stores? I assume everybody in the industry is doing what we're doing and on imported products, expecting high tariffs that everybody raised the inventories.

我以為我回答了另一個問題。問題是，他們是否增加了商店中我的產品的庫存？我認為業內每個人都在做我們正在做的事情，對進口產品徵收高額關稅，因此每個人都提高了庫存。

Okay. Got it. Maybe misinterpreted your answer then. Appreciate the clarification. Second comment or a question.

好的。知道了。也許誤解了你的答案。感謝您的澄清。第二條評論或問題。

I think, Jim, in response to Rick's question about earnings, you suggested for the potential for earnings to be up year-on-year. Here's what I'm wondering, seasonally speaking, your 3Q is usually flat to down versus 2Q and 4Q is almost always down a decent amount seasonally. And so with demand weak and the incremental pressures that could come in the second half, it would take an typically seasonally strong second half to get anywhere close to flat to up for the full year, even ex ERP. So I'm just trying to understand that bridge. It seems like the base case should be that there's going to be some continued year-on-year pressure.

吉姆，我認為，在回答里克關於收益的問題時，您提到了收益有可能同比增長。我想知道的是，從季節性角度來說，第三季通常是持平或下降，而第二季和第四季幾乎總是出現相當大的季節性下降。因此，由於需求疲軟以及下半年可能出現的增量壓力，即使扣除 ERP 因素，通常也需要下半年出現季節性強勁表現，才能使全年經濟接近持平或上漲。所以我只是想了解那座橋。看起來基本情況應該是同比壓力會持續存在。

Well, first of all, everything is excluding the impact of what has happened in Flooring North America with the system conversion. So you set that $30 million impact aside. As we go through the balance of the year, one difference is the benefit of the restructuring, savings that we have flowing through still in Q3, Q4, as Jeff said, we have about $70 million that we should see for the balance of the year. We have additional productivity initiatives as well that will help in Q3 and Q4. And then if we do get some of that tailwind on energy, that would also help that situation as well.

嗯，首先，一切都排除了北美地板系統轉換帶來的影響。所以你把那 3000 萬美元的影響放在一邊。當我們回顧今年的餘額時，一個不同之處是重組帶來的好處，即我們在第三季度和第四季度仍在使用的節省，正如傑夫所說，我們應該看到今年餘額約為 7000 萬美元。我們還有其他生產力舉措，這將有助於第三季和第四季。如果我們確實在能源方面獲得一些順風，那麼這也會對這種情況有所幫助。

The other point, and that's why I gave the range in my prepared remarks, interest cost is the strength of the balance sheet is certainly a help this year. It's down year-over-year just in the quarter, it was down nicely 4 of the period, almost $9 million. So that's going to help us as we go through the balance of the year. And then the last point is the -- on the FX side, we are obviously exposed to the euro. It's our largest currency outside of the US.

另一點，這就是我在準備好的發言中給出範圍的原因，利息成本是資產負債表的強度，這肯定會對今年有所幫助。本季的銷售額年減了 4%，幾乎下降了 900 萬美元。因此，這將幫助我們度過今年的剩餘時間。最後一點是——在外匯方面，我們顯然受到歐元的影響。它是美國以外最大的貨幣。

And with the weakening dollar, you've seen the euro certainly increase from a translation standpoint, that also helps. So a combination of productivity the strengthening mix that we've talked about. And then if we see some of those tailwinds on raw materials or energy as we get to the back half of the year, it is still possible. Now obviously, we do need assistance from, as I've said, some stabilization from the macro economy to make really that happen.

隨著美元走弱，從翻譯的角度來看歐元肯定會升值，這也有幫助。因此，我們討論的是生產力的結合和強化組合。如果我們在下半年看到原材料或能源方面出現一些順風，那麼這仍然是可能的。顯然，正如我所說，我們確實需要宏觀經濟的穩定來真正實現這一目標。

And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll be concluding today's question-and-answer session. I'd now like to turn the floor back over to for any closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，今天的問答環節就到此結束。現在我想將發言權交還給各位，請大家作結語。

Our local manufacturing should be a greater competitive advantage. We're going to continue to flexibly manage the environment as it changes. The postponed housing remodeling that's been pushed out over the last few years will return to historical levels, and we'll see a rebound from it when it occurs. We appreciate your interest in Mohawk. Thank you.

我們的本地製造應該具有更大的競爭優勢。我們將繼續靈活地管理不斷變化的環境。過去幾年推遲的住房改造將恢復到歷史水平，屆時我們將看到反彈。感謝您對 Mohawk 的關注。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference call and presentation. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議和演講到此結束。我們非常感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路了。