莫霍克工業集團 (MHK) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Mohawk Industries Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please note, this event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加莫霍克工業公司 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）。請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to James Brunk, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給財務長詹姆斯布倫克 (James Brunk)。請繼續。

Thank you, Wyatt. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Mohawk Industries' quarterly investor conference call. Joining me on the call are Jeff Lorberbaum, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Wellborn, our Vice Chairman.

謝謝你，懷亞特。大家早安。歡迎參加莫霍克工業公司的季度投資者電話會議。參加電話會議的還有董事長兼執行長 Jeff Lorberbaum；以及我們的副主席 Chris Wellborn。

Today, we'll update you on the company's fourth quarter and full year performance and provide guidance for the first quarter of 2025. I'd like to remind everyone that our press release and statements that we make during this call may include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, those set forth in our press release and our periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call may include discussion of non-GAAP numbers. For a reconciliation of any non-GAAP to GAAP numbers, please refer to our Form 8-K and press release in the Investors section of our website. I'll now turn the call over to Jeff for his opening remarks. Jeff?

今天，我們將向您介紹公司第四季和全年的業績，並提供 2025 年第一季的指導。我想提醒大家，我們的新聞稿和我們在本次電話會議中發表的聲明可能包括《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受各種風險和不確定因素的影響，包括但不限於我們新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期文件中所述的風險和不確定性。此次電話會議可能涉及非 GAAP 數據討論。若要了解非 GAAP 與 GAAP 資料之間的對賬，請參閱我們網站「投資者」部分的 8-K 表格和新聞稿。現在我將電話轉給傑夫，請他致開場白。傑夫？

Thank you, Jim. Our fourth quarter results exceeded our expectations as sales actions, restructuring initiatives and productivity improvements benefited our performance. Additionally, the sales impact from U.S. hurricanes was limited to approximately $10 million.

謝謝你，吉姆。由於銷售措施、重組措施和生產力提高有利於我們的業績，我們的第四季業績超出了我們的預期。此外，美國颶風對銷售的影響僅限於約 1000 萬美元。

Net sales for the quarter were approximately $2.6 billion, consistent with the prior year with 2 additional shipping days, partially offset by the strengthening U.S. dollar. While residential demand remains soft in our markets, our product introductions last year and our marketing initiatives contributed to our sales performance around the globe. Our adjusted EPS for the quarter was $1.95, in line with the prior year from productivity, additional shipping days, lower interest expense offset by unfavorable pricing, product mix and inflation.

本季淨銷售額約 26 億美元，與去年持平，但運輸天數增加了 2 個，部分被美元走強所抵銷。雖然我們市場上的住宅需求依然疲軟，但我們去年推出的產品和行銷措施促進了我們全球的銷售業績。我們本季的調整後每股收益為 1.95 美元，與去年同期持平，原因是生產力提高、運輸天數增加、利息支出降低，但不利的定價、產品組合和通貨膨脹抵消了這一影響。

For the full year, our net sales were approximately $10.8 billion, down approximately 3% as reported and on a constant basis with an adjusted EPS of $9.70 as we progress through the year, our industry deteriorated from higher interest rates, lower housing turnover and reduced remodeling. In response to these conditions, we took additional actions to optimize sales and launch initiatives to reduce overhead, enhanced productivity and restructure operations to maximize our performance.

就全年而言，我們的淨銷售額約為 108 億美元，報告顯示下降約 3%，以固定比率計算，調整後的每股收益為 9.70 美元，但隨著年內的發展，我們的行業因利率上升、住房週轉率下降和改造減少而惡化。為了應對這些情況，我們採取了額外措施來優化銷售和推出新計劃，以降低管理費用、提高生產力和重組運營，從而最大限度地提高我們的業績。

Last year, 55% of our sales were in the U.S. and 45% were in other geographies with leading flooring positions on 4 continents. The fourth quarter environment was an extension of the conditions our industry faced throughout last year. Consumers continue to limit large discretionary purchases and consumer confidence remain constrained by cumulative inflation, economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.

去年，我們 55% 的銷售額來自美國，45% 來自其他地區，在四大洲佔據領先的地板地位。第四季的環境是我們產業去年全年面臨的環境的延續。消費者繼續限制大額可自由支配的購買，消費者信心仍然受到累積通膨、經濟不確定性和地緣政治緊張局勢的限制。

During '24, home sales across the world saved suppressed while U.S. homeowners remain locked in place with low mortgages and existing U.S. home sales fell to a 30-year low. Central banks in the U.S., Europe and other regions lowered interest rates during the latter part of last year, though the impact on housing turnover was negligible in most regions. Consumers who did initiate remodeling were more affluent or completing essential projects.

2024年，全球房屋銷售受到抑制，而美國房主仍陷於低抵押貸款困境，美國現有房屋銷售跌至30年來的最低水準。美國、歐洲等地區央行去年下半年紛紛調降利率，但大部分地區降息對房地產成交量影響不大。發起改造的消費者更富裕或完成了重要的專案。

New home construction was also constrained around the world with higher home costs and interest rates impacting starts. Many U.S. builders increased sales by buying down mortgage rates to make monthly payments more affordable. Throughout the year, investments in the commercial sector slowed, though they remain stronger than residential remodeling. These factors reduced market demand and created heightened industry competition for volume. This also resulted in greater unabsorbed overhead and shutdown costs as we manage production and inventory.

由於房價上漲和利率上升影響了新房開工，全球新房建設也受到限制。許多美國建築商透過降低抵押貸款利率來降低每月還款額，從而增加了銷售額。全年商業領域的投資放緩，但仍強於住宅改造投資。這些因素減少了市場需求並加劇了產業產量競爭。當我們管理生產和庫存時，這也導致了更大的未吸收的間接費用和停工成本。

Given these conditions, we focused on stimulating sales with innovative new products, marketing actions and promotional programs. Our product launches delivered style and performance at affordable prices as well as unique premium products to incentivize remodeling. Last year, we initiated significant restructuring actions and operational improvements that are lowering our costs and will benefit our longer-term results.

鑑於這些情況，我們專注於透過創新的新產品、行銷活動和促銷計劃來刺激銷售。我們推出的產品以實惠的價格提供了時尚和性能，以及獨特的優質產品來激勵改造。去年，我們啟動了重大重組措施和營運改進，這些措施降低了我們的成本並有利於我們的長期業績。

During 2024, we focused capital expenditures on projects driving sales, reducing costs and maintaining our assets. Through these actions, we delivered full year increase of approximately 6% in adjusted earnings per share in a soft market. For the year, we generated free cash flow of $680 million and repurchased 1.3 million shares of stock for $161 million. We ended the year with available liquidity of $1.6 billion and debt leverage of 1.1x. We are well positioned to manage this market cycle, pursue opportunities for long-term profitable growth and emerge stronger when the housing markets improve. We are taking actions in areas we control to optimize our current performance and improve sales and profits when volumes rebound. Now Jim will review our financial details.

2024 年，我們將資本支出重點放在推動銷售、降低成本和維護資產的項目。透過這些舉措，我們在疲軟的市場中實現了全年調整後每股收益成長約 6%。今年，我們產生了 6.8 億美元的自由現金流，並以 1.61 億美元回購了 130 萬股股票。截至年底，我們可用的流動資金為 16 億美元，債務槓桿為 1.1 倍。我們有能力管理這個市場週期，尋求長期獲利成長的機會，並在房地產市場好轉時變得更強大。我們正在我們控制的領域採取行動，以優化我們當前的業績，並在銷售反彈時提高銷售額和利潤。現在吉姆將審查我們的財務細節。

Thank you, Jeff. Sales for the quarter were just over $2.6 billion. That's a 1% increase as reported and a 1% decrease on a constant basis. Gross margin as reported was 23.6% and SG&A as a percentage of sales was 18.6%, giving us an operating income margin on a reported basis of 4.6% with nonrecurring charges of $38 million during the quarter, primarily related to previously announced restructuring actions across all 3 segments, which when completed, will yield cost savings of approximately $285 million.

謝謝你，傑夫。本季銷售額略高於 26 億美元。據報道，這是增長了 1%，但根據恆定計算，這是下降了 1%。報告的毛利率為 23.6%，銷售、一般及行政費用佔銷售額的百分比為 18.6%，報告基礎上的營業收入利潤率為 4.6%，本季度的非經常性費用為 3800 萬美元，主要與先前宣布的所有三個部門的重組行動有關，重組完成後將節省約 2.85 億美元的成本。

Operating income on an adjusted basis was $160 million or 6.1%, which is a decline of 60 basis points versus the prior year due to unfavorable price mix of $51 million, higher input costs of $20 million, partially offset by stronger productivity of $37 million and increased volume of $22 million, mainly due from the additional shipping days. Interest expense was $10 million for the quarter, a decrease versus prior year due to a stronger free cash flow and lower overall debt levels. Non-GAAP tax rate was 17.8% versus 21.3% in the prior year. Looking forward, we expect Q1 and the full year 2025 tax rate to be between 20% and 22%. That gave us an earnings per share on a reported basis of $1.48 and on an adjusted basis, $1.95, in line with the prior year in a very difficult environment. Turning to the segments. Global Ceramic had sales of just over $1 billion.

調整後的營業收入為 1.6 億美元，即 6.1%，比上年下降 60 個基點，原因是 5,100 萬美元的價格組合不利，投入成本增加 2,000 萬美元，但部分被 3,700 萬美元的生產率提高和 2,200 萬美元的銷售增加所抵消，這主要歸因於額外的運輸數。本季利息支出為 1,000 萬美元，較上年同期下降，原因是自由現金流增強且整體債務水準降低。非公認會計準則稅率為 17.8%，而上年度為 21.3%。展望未來，我們預計 2025 年第一季和全年的稅率將在 20% 至 22% 之間。這使得我們的報告每股收益達到 1.48 美元，調整後每股收益達到 1.95 美元，與上年非常困難的環境下的業績持平。轉向各個部分。Global Ceramic 的銷售額剛超過 10 億美元。

That was a 1.5% increase as reported and 1.2% on a constant basis as the benefit of favorable mix and the additional shipping days were only partially offset by pressures on pricing and FX headwinds. Operating income on an adjusted basis was 5.3%. That's a 50 basis point increase over the prior year, with productivity gains of $17 million and increased volume of $8 million were only partially offset by unfavorable price mix of $12 million and increased shutdown costs. In Flooring North America, sales were just over $930 million.

報告顯示，這一增幅為 1.5%，固定成長率為 1.2%，因為有利的產品組合和額外的運輸天數帶來的收益僅被定價和外匯逆風的壓力部分抵消。調整後營業收入為5.3%。這比去年增加了 50 個基點，生產力提高了 1700 萬美元，銷量增加了 800 萬美元，但 1200 萬美元的不利價格組合和停工成本的增加僅部分抵消了這一影響。在北美地板市場，銷售額略高於 9.3 億美元。

That's a 2.8% increase as reported and declined 0.5% on a constant basis as positive volume gains in our laminate, residential soft and LVT businesses were offset by continued pressure on price and mix. Operating income on an adjusted basis was 5.7%. That's a decline of 120 basis points versus the prior year as the impact of that price and mix pressure of $25 million and higher input costs of $11 million were only partially offset by improved volume of $15 million and strengthening productivity of $11 million. Finally, in Flooring Rest of the World, sales were just shy of $700 million. That's a 2.1% decrease as reported and declined 4.8% on a constant basis as the strength of our laminate, LVT and panels businesses were offset by weakness in insulation and sheet vinyl and continued price pressure across the segment.

據報道，這一數字增長了 2.8%，但按固定比率下降了 0.5%，原因是我們的層壓板、住宅軟板和 LVT 業務的銷售增長被持續的價格和產品組合壓力所抵消。調整後營業收入為5.7%。與去年相比，下降了 120 個基點，因為 2500 萬美元的價格和產品組合壓力以及 1100 萬美元的更高投入成本的影響僅被 1500 萬美元的銷量增長和 1100 萬美元的生產率提高所部分抵消。最後，在世界其他地區的地板市場，銷售額略低於 7 億美元。報告顯示，這一數字下降了 2.1%，按固定基礎計算則下降了 4.8%，原因是我們的層壓板、LVT 和板材業務的強勁表現，被絕緣材料和乙烯基片材的疲軟以及整個部門持續的價格壓力所抵消。

Operating margin on an adjusted basis was 10%, declining 60 basis points versus the prior year, primarily due to the impact of unfavorable price and mix of $14 million and slightly higher input costs, only partially offset by improved productivity of $9 million. Corporate and eliminations were $16 million for the quarter as our corporate expenses were in line with our full year expectations of approximately $50 million.

調整後的營業利潤率為 10%，比上年下降 60 個基點，主要原因是 1,400 萬美元的不利價格及產品組合以及略高的投入成本的影響，但 900 萬美元的生產率提高僅部分抵消了這一影響。本季的企業及抵銷費用為 1,600 萬美元，因為我們的企業支出與全年約 5,000 萬美元的預期一致。

Looking at the balance sheet. Cash and cash equivalents were $667 million with free cash flow of over $230 million in the quarter and $680 million for the full year. In addition, in the quarter, we repurchased approximately $74 million of shares in the period. Inventories were just over $2.5 billion and decreased approximately $40 million primarily due to FX as days increased to 134 days versus 130 in the prior year, primarily due to increases in sourced products with the potential of port strikes and tariffs.

看看資產負債表。現金和現金等價物為 6.67 億美元，本季自由現金流超過 2.3 億美元，全年自由現金流為 6.8 億美元。此外，本季我們回購了價值約 7,400 萬美元的股票。庫存略高於 25 億美元，減少約 4,000 萬美元，主要由於外匯影響，庫存天數從上年的 130 天增加至 134 天，這主要是由於港口罷工和關稅等潛在因素導致採購產品增加。

Property, plant and equipment were just over $4.5 billion with CapEx of $161 million in the quarter, and the company plans to invest approximately $520 million in 2025, primarily focused on product innovation and cost reduction projects. The balance sheet overall remains very strong with strong free cash flow, net debt of $1.6 billion and leverage of 1.1x. Now Chris will review our Q4 operational performance.

本季度，房地產、廠房和設備總額略高於 45 億美元，資本支出為 1.61 億美元，公司計劃在 2025 年投資約 5.2 億美元，主要用於產品創新和成本削減項目。整體而言，資產負債表依然強勁，自由現金流強勁，淨債務為 16 億美元，槓桿比率為 1.1 倍。現在克里斯將回顧我們第四季的營運表現。

William Christopher Wellborn Vice Chair

William Christopher Wellborn 副主席

Thank you, Jim. For the quarter, our Global Ceramic segment delivered solid results despite slow demand and industry competition impacting pricing across our regions. The segment's operating income benefited from improved productivity, partially offset by pricing and shutdowns. We implemented many cost containment initiatives, which included reengineering products, improving processes and rationalizing higher cost operations. In a softer market, we increased distribution by expanding our customer base across sales channels, including residential builders, specifiers and specialty retailers. In the quarter, we improved our mix with products launched in 2024, higher commercial sales and expansion of premium collections. We are elevating our product offering through more advanced printing, polishing and rectifying technologies that create industry-leading visuals.

謝謝你，吉姆。本季度，儘管需求放緩且行業競爭影響了各地區的價格，但我們的全球陶瓷部門仍取得了穩健的業績。該部門的營業收入受益於生產力的提高，但被定價和停工等部分抵消。我們實施了許多成本控制舉措，包括重新設計產品、改善流程和合理化高成本營運。在市場疲軟的情況下，我們透過擴大銷售管道的客戶群（包括住宅建築商、指定商和專業零售商）來增加分銷。本季度，我們透過推出 2024 年的產品、更高的商業銷售額和擴大優質系列來改善我們的產品組合。我們正在透過更先進的印刷、拋光和矯正技術來提升我們的產品品質，從而創造出領先業界的視覺效果。

In the U.S., we are leveraging our ceramic service centers to grow contractor sales and increasing our position with kitchen and bath dealers nationwide. We are introducing new high-end quartz countertop collections in advance of our new U.S. production line opening later this year. In Europe, our specifier team, showrooms for the A&D community and premium products are driving commercial sales growth, and we are increasing export sales outside the region.

在美國，我們利用我們的陶瓷服務中心來增加承包商的銷售額，並提高我們在全國廚房和浴室經銷商中的地位。我們將在今年稍後美國新生產線投入營運之前推出全新高端石英檯面系列。在歐洲，我們的規範團隊、面向 A&D 社區的展廳和優質產品正在推動商業銷售成長，我們正在增加該地區以外的出口銷售。

In both Mexico and Brazil, the integration of our acquisitions has improved our product offering, sales organizations and market strategies and our Brazilian exports are strengthening as the currency weakened. Our Flooring Rest of World segment saw improved sales of laminate, LVT and panels versus the prior year, though insulation faced additional headwinds. Our margins were compressed due to competitive industry pricing and rising material and labor costs that were partially offset by productivity gains and lower energy expenses. Our restructuring initiatives in the segment are progressing and improving our cost position and productivity as we rationalize less efficient assets, streamline our product portfolio and reduce administrative overhead.

在墨西哥和巴西，我們的收購整合改善了我們的產品供應、銷售組織和市場策略，隨著貨幣貶值，我們的巴西出口也正在增強。與前一年相比，我們的地板業務（世界其他地區）的層壓板、LVT 和板材的銷售量有所提高，但隔熱材料銷售量則面臨額外的阻力。由於行業定價競爭激烈、材料和勞動力成本上升，我們的利潤率受到壓縮，但生產力提高和能源費用降低部分抵消了這一影響。隨著我們合理化效率較低的資產、精簡我們的產品組合併減少管理費用，我們在該部門的重組計劃正在取得進展，並改善了我們的成本狀況和生產力。

We also contained costs in the quarter by enhancing manufacturing and logistics efficiencies and continuing to manage inventory levels. In December, the European Union introduced tariffs of more than 40% on Chinese wood flooring, which should benefit our sales of laminate, LVT and wood. We grew the sales and mix of our premium laminate and LVT collections through increased advertising that attracted consumers to our retailers.

我們還透過提高製造和物流效率並繼續管理庫存水準來控製本季的成本。12月，歐盟對中國木地板徵收超過40%的關稅，這將有利於我們的強化木地板、LVT地板和木材的銷售。我們透過增加廣告來吸引消費者到我們的零售店，從而增加了優質層壓板和 LVT 系列的銷售和產品組合。

In addition, we increased product placement with our customers in Central Europe that will improve our LVT sales. In our panels business, volumes held up as we took more aggressive promotional actions and our more differentiated decorative panels performed better given stronger nonresidential projects. Our insulation business experienced weak demand and margin pressure from increased competition and material costs. In line with the market, we have announced price increases in insulation to partially offset rising material costs. In our panels and insulation businesses, we are investing to expand our geographic footprint and are developing new products to satisfy those markets. In our Flooring North America segment, we maintained sales in a declining market with benefits from our successful 2024 product launches in our fashion categories.

此外，我們增加了對中歐客戶的產品植入，這將提高我們的 LVT 銷售。在我們的面板業務中，由於我們採取了更積極的促銷活動，銷量得以保持，並且由於非住宅項目的強勁發展，我們差異化的裝飾面板表現更佳。由於競爭加劇和材料成本上升，我們的絕緣業務需求疲軟，利潤面臨壓力。為了順應市場情勢，我們宣布提高絕緣材料的價格，以部分抵銷材料成本的上漲。在我們的面板和絕緣業務中，我們正在投資擴大我們的地理覆蓋範圍，並正在開發新產品來滿足這些市場的需求。在北美地板業務領域，由於我們在 2024 年時尚類別中成功推出的產品，我們在低迷的市場中保持了銷售。

Year-over-year, our margins were reduced by lower pricing and product mix and higher inflation, partially offset by higher volume, stronger productivity and cost reduction actions. During the quarter, we completed our LVT restructuring initiatives, which will enhance operations and provide significant savings. We focused on increasing volume across sales channels, optimizing our SG&A spend and expanding both the home center and residential construction channels. In the quarter, our hard surface sales grew in all channels as a result of increased distribution of our 2024 product introductions.

與去年同期相比，我們的利潤率因定價和產品組合下降以及通貨膨脹上升而下降，但被銷售增加、生產力提高和成本削減措施部分抵消。在本季度，我們完成了 LVT 重組計劃，這將增強營運並帶來大量節約。我們專注於增加銷售通路的銷售量，優化銷售、一般及行政開支，並擴大家居中心和住宅建築通路。本季度，由於我們 2024 年產品推出的分銷範圍擴大，我們所有通路的硬表面銷售額均有所成長。

Sales of our recycled PVC-free resilient flooring expanded as a high-performance LVT alternative. Our residential carpet collections gained market share with the sales of our PET premier polyester collections and fashion categories leading our performance. In the commercial channel, our carpet tile products led our sales with their appealing designs and sustainable properties. Hospitality sales remained strong as new construction and renovation projects were completed. With that, I'll return the call to Jeff for his closing remarks.

作為高性能 LVT 替代品，我們的再生無 PVC 彈性地板的銷售量不斷擴大。我們的住宅地毯系列贏得了市場份額，其中 PET 高級聚酯纖維系列和時尚類別的銷量領先於我們的業績。在商業管道，我們的地毯磚產品以其吸引人的設計和可持續的特性引領了我們的銷售。隨著新建築和裝修項目的完工，酒店銷售依然強勁。說完這些，我將回電給傑夫，請他作最後發言。

As a reminder, we announced Chris would be retiring from his position in February and has agreed to ensure a smooth transition in a consulting role. We appreciate Chris' many contributions to Mohawk's success over the past 2 decades. Under his leadership, Mohawk's ceramic business became the largest in the world with leading positions on 3 continents.

提醒一下，我們宣布克里斯將於二月退休，並同意確保顧問職位的順利過渡。我們感謝克里斯在過去二十年為莫霍克的成功做出的許多貢獻。在他的領導下，莫霍克的陶瓷業務成為全球最大的陶瓷業務，並在三大洲佔據領先地位。

We're pleased Chris will remain on our Board of Directors and will continue to benefit from his expertise. With Chris' retirement, Paul De Cock is taking over the role of Chief Operating Officer after serving as President of our Flooring North America segment for the past 6 years. Paul will focus on enhancing our sales and operating plans across the enterprise. Paul is presently in Europe working with our Flooring Rest of World team, and he will deliver the operational reports next quarter.

我們很高興克里斯將繼續擔任我們的董事會成員，並將繼續受益於他的專業知識。隨著克里斯的退休，保羅·德科克 (Paul De Cock) 將接任首席營運長一職，此前他曾擔任我們地板北美分部的總裁六年。保羅將專注於加強整個企業的銷售和營運計劃。Paul 目前正在歐洲與我們的地板世界其他地區團隊合作，他將於下個季度提交營運報告。

Now returning to the outlook. Our industry has been in a cyclical downturn for multiple years, and we are confident that our markets will return to historical levels, though the inflection point remains unpredictable. We expect ongoing softness in our markets during the first quarter due to elevated interest rates and weakness in housing.

現在回到展望。我們的行業多年來一直處於週期性低迷狀態，儘管轉折點仍然難以預測，但我們有信心我們的市場將回到歷史水平。我們預計，由於利率上升和房屋市場疲軟，第一季市場將持續疲軟。

Intense competition for volume will continue to pressure our pricing, though our mix should benefit from differentiated products launched last year, premium collections and our commercial offering. Increased material and labor costs will reduce our margins in the quarter as we can only partially pass through the higher cost to the market. Our businesses are finding additional ways to reduce expenses and improve processes, which will help to reduce the impact of inflation. We are restructuring our Mexican ceramic business to improve our operational performance, which will save approximately $20 million a year. Our cumulative restructuring actions will generate annualized savings of approximately $285 million when complete in 2026.

儘管我們的產品組合應受益於去年推出的差異化產品、高端系列和商業產品，但激烈的產量競爭將繼續對我們的定價造成壓力。材料和勞動成本的增加將降低我們本季的利潤率，因為我們只能將部分更高的成本轉嫁給市場。我們的企業正在尋找其他方法來削減開支和改進流程，這將有助於減少通貨膨脹的影響。我們正在重組墨西哥陶瓷業務以提高我們的營運績效，這將每年節省約 2000 萬美元。我們的累計重組行動將於 2026 年完成，屆時將產生約 2.85 億美元的年度節省。

Our capital expenditures this year are focused on maximizing sales, improving product mix and reducing costs. As we indicated in our January 24 8-K filing, the Flooring North America segment implemented a new order management system, which had more issues than anticipated.

我們今年的資本支出重點是最大化銷售額、改善產品組合和降低成本。正如我們在 1 月 24 日的 8-K 文件中指出的那樣，地板北美部門實施了一個新的訂單管理系統，但其問題比預期的要多。

The conversion did not impact our manufacturing or financial systems. The majority of the system processes have been corrected and our shipments are currently aligned with our order rates. Our invoicing was delayed, and we are addressing shipping and invoicing errors with customers that mainly occurred in the beginning of the implementation. At this point, we estimate the impact on the first quarter operating income from missed sales and extraordinary costs will be between $25 million and $30 million.

此次轉換不會影響我們的製造或財務系統。大多數系統流程已經修正，我們的出貨量目前與訂單率一致。我們的發票延遲了，我們正在與客戶解決主要發生在實施初期的運輸和發票錯誤。目前，我們估計銷售損失和非經常性成本對第一季營業收入的影響將在 2,500 萬美元至 3,000 萬美元之間。

We are working closely with our customers to remediate any issues or concerns. We believe the impact of extraordinary costs will be limited to the first quarter. It is difficult to estimate the sales impact on future periods, though we do not anticipate it will have a meaningful long-term impact on our customer relationships. The U.S. dollar has strengthened significantly, which will negatively impact our translated results this year. As a reminder, our first quarter is seasonally the lowest during the year, and it will have 2 fewer days compared to last year.

我們正在與客戶密切合作以解決任何問題或疑慮。我們認為，非經常性成本的影響將僅限於第一季。雖然我們預計它不會對我們的客戶關係產生長期重大影響，但很難估計它對未來時期的銷售影響。美元大幅走強，這將對我們今年的轉換結果產生負面影響。提醒一下，我們的第一季是全年季節性最低的，與去年相比少了 2 天。

Given these factors, we expect our first quarter adjusted EPS will be between $1.34 and $1.44, excluding any restructuring or other onetime charges. This includes an estimated EPS impact of $0.35 per share due to the Flooring North America system issues. Historically, cyclical downturns in our industry are followed by strong rebounds as flooring demand returns to historical levels.

考慮到這些因素，我們預計第一季調整後的每股盈餘將在 1.34 美元至 1.44 美元之間（不包括重組或其他一次性費用）。這包括因北美地板系統問題而造成的每股收益 0.35 美元的預期影響。從歷史上看，隨著地板需求恢復到歷史水平，我們行業的周期性衰退之後會出現強勁反彈。

All of our regions need increased home construction to address growing household formations and aging homes will require significant updating after several years of postponed remodeling. As the economy strengthens, business investment will increase in commercial channels. As the world's largest flooring manufacturer, we're uniquely positioned due to our geographic scope, leading innovation, comprehensive portfolio and financial strengths. When the industry recovers, higher volumes will leverage our manufacturing and overhead costs to enhance our results. Additionally, our product mix will improve, pricing will strengthen and margins will expand. We are well prepared to manage through the short term and maximize our results as the category recovers. We'll now be glad to take your questions.

我們所有地區都需要增加住房建設，以應對日益增長的家庭結構，而老化的房屋在推遲幾年的改造後將需要進行重大更新。隨著經濟的增強，企業對商業通路的投資將會增加。作為全球最大的地板製造商，我們憑藉其地理範圍、領先的創新、全面的產品組合和財務實力而佔據獨特優勢。當產業復甦時，更高的產量將會利用我們的製造和管理成本來提高我們的業績。此外，我們的產品結構將會改善，定價將加強，利潤率將擴大。我們已做好充分準備來度過短期困難，並在該類別復甦時實現業績最大化。我們現在很高興回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Trevor Allinson with Wolfe Research.

沃爾夫研究公司的 Trevor Allinson。

Congratulations to Chris on the retirement. It appears 1Q earnings guidance looks like it's roughly in line with normal seasonal trends that you guys saw prior to the pandemic between 4Q and 1Q, excluding the impact of the order management system. As we think about the moving parts of this year moving forward. Should we think that 1Q to 2Q then also exhibits normal seasonality moving forward, again, excluding any of the impacts from the order management system?

祝賀克里斯退休。看起來，第一季的獲利預期與你們在第四季至第一季疫情之前看到的正常季節性趨勢大致一致，不包括訂單管理系統的影響。當我們思考今年接下來的發展。我們是否應該認為，第一季到第二季也表現出正常的季節性，同樣排除訂單管理系統的任何影響？

The second quarter, we don't anticipate any changes in the present market conditions, and we do expect normal seasonal improvements. We'll continue to seek volume to maximize absorbtion of our cost structures. We will benefit from the cost reductions, restructuring and lower shutdowns, though pressures from pricing mix and higher costs will continue in the second quarter.

第二季度，我們預計目前的市場狀況不會發生任何變化，而且我們預計會出現正常的季節性改善。我們將繼續尋求數量來最大限度地吸收我們的成本結構。我們將受益於成本削減、結構重組和停產減少，但第二季仍將面臨定價組合和成本上漲帶來的壓力。

We're investing in new products and sales activities to improve both the mix and distribution. Don't forget the dollar has strengthened, and it's also going to lower our translated foreign results. And as we said, we don't expect any additional cost from Flooring North America system, though it's difficult to estimate, if any sales impact on the future periods at this point.

我們正在投資新產品和銷售活動，以改善產品組合和分銷。別忘了美元已經走強，這也將降低我們的外匯翻譯結果。正如我們所說的，我們預計北美地板系統不會帶來任何額外成本，儘管目前很難估計是否會對未來期間的銷售產生影響。

Trevor Allinson Wolfe Research

特雷弗·艾林森沃爾夫研究

Okay. Makes sense, and that's helpful color. And then second on natural gas prices, they come up pretty rapidly here in recent weeks. Can you talk about what you're expecting from a price/cost standpoint in global ceramics specifically moving forward? And are you expecting to be able to push enough pricing to offset those potential inflationary headwinds moving forward?

好的。很有道理，而且很有幫助。其次，關於天然氣價格，最近幾週價格上漲得相當快。您能否從價格/成本的角度談談您對未來全球陶瓷市場的具體預期？您是否預計能夠推動足夠的定價來抵銷未來潛在的通膨阻力？

Well, U.S. gas prices have increased with higher cost impact in Q1. In Europe, natural gas costs increased, though it's still dramatically lower than the peak. We've hedged a portion of it in Europe to limit our cost volatility.

美國汽油價格上漲，第一季的成本影響也更大。在歐洲，天然氣成本有所上漲，儘管目前仍遠低於高峰水準。我們在歐洲對部分資產進行了對沖，以限製成本波動。

We're trying to recover some of the cost of it through cost takeouts and improved mix, but we think it's going to be difficult to get it all back in passing prices through in this environment.

我們正在嘗試透過降低成本和改善產品組合來收回部分成本，但我們認為，在這種環境下，透過轉嫁價格收回全部成本將會十分困難。

And just remember, as natural gas or energy or material costs change, it takes about a quarter to kind of flow through to the P&L based on their inventory turns.

請記住，隨著天然氣或能源或材料成本的變化，根據庫存週轉率，大約需要四分之一的時間才能流入損益表。

Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Mike Dahl。

Just sticking with the Flooring North America issue, maybe it would help us could break out to the extent you can, like if you call it, $25 million to $30 million hit on income between the extraordinary costs and the sales impact. How much of that $25 million to $30 million is kind of this onetime cost versus the sales and sales leverage impact?

只堅持北美地板問題，也許它可以幫助我們突破你所說的，在非常成本和銷售影響之間 2500 萬至 3000 萬美元的收入損失。這 2500 萬到 3000 萬美元中有多少是一次性成本，有多少是銷售和銷售槓桿的影響？

Yes, Mike. So if you look, we said about $25 million to $30 million. If you look at the extraordinary costs, involved with correcting the system, additional man hours to address issues, manual processes and such. We believe that's about $15 million to $20 million of the impact. And we anticipate a sales impact, so a sales impact of about $25 million to $50 million in the quarter.

是的，麥克。如果你看一下，我們說的是大約2500萬到3000萬美元。如果您看一下涉及修正系統、解決問題的額外人力、手動流程等的額外成本。我們認為影響約為 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元。我們預計這會對銷售產生影響，因此本季的銷售影響約為 2,500 萬至 5,000 萬美元。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful, Jim. And then I appreciate kind of the context and qualitative pieces around thinking beyond 1Q. I think it would it'll probably be really helpful if there's any way, like there's always a lot of these moving pieces. When you add all this together, do you think you will be in a position to grow earnings on a year-on-year basis in 2Q?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助，吉姆。然後，我欣賞超越 1Q 思考的背景和定性部分。我認為如果有任何方法的話它可能會非常有幫助，就像總是有很多這樣的移動部件一樣。將所有這些因素加在一起，您是否認為您能夠在第二季度實現盈利同比增長？

Well, as we look to the whole year, we start out with the industry has really been in a down cycle longer than most in history. These downturns are typically followed by strong rebounds in flooring as demand returns and postponed projects are initiated. Just like you, we're unable to predict the inflection point, but we're confident over time that we will return to the historical levels. At this point, we haven't seen any signs in our markets that the rebound is starting or improving at this point, and we're taking a cautious approach about when the recovery will occur at this point.

嗯，當我們回顧全年時，我們首先發現，該行業確實處於比歷史上大多數時期都要長的下行週期。隨著需求的回升和推遲的項目的啟動，這些衰退之後通常會出現地板價格的強勁反彈。就像您一樣，我們無法預測拐點，但我們相信隨著時間的推移，我們將回到歷史水平。目前，我們還沒有看到市場出現任何反彈開始或改善的跡象，我們對何時會出現復甦持謹慎態度。

Given that, this year, we're expecting mix improvements significant productivity initiatives and specific pricing actions where we can get them should offset the negative pressures of rising costs and headwinds from the stronger dollar. And then absent the Flooring North America change, we should see a slight improvement in overall earnings given those assumptions.

有鑑於此，我們預計今年的組合改進、重大的生產力措施和具體的定價行動將能夠抵消成本上升和美元走強的不利影響。如果沒有北美地板業務的變化，基於這些假設，我們應該會看到整體收益略有改善。

Yes. And adjusting for the impact of the system conversion if you look Q1 to Q2, I would look more at historical growth on sales and on margins. So very typical normal seasonality.

是的。如果您查看第一季至第二季的資料並調整系統轉換的影響，我會更專注於銷售額和利潤的歷史成長。這是非常典型的正常季節性。

Eric Bosshard with Cleveland Research.

克利夫蘭研究公司的 Eric Bosshard。

You talked a bit about competition, your competition as a limiting factor, competition in U.S. tile as a limiting factor. And I know there's always competition in these markets. But I'm just curious, is there anything different from a competitive dynamic that is limiting either pricing or share and then also add into this, any influence of tariffs in consideration of that in the same vein?

您談到了競爭，您的競爭是一個限制因素，美國瓷磚的競爭也是一個限制因素。我知道這些市場總是存在著競爭。但我只是好奇，這與限制定價或份額的競爭動態有什麼不同，然後考慮到這一點，關稅是否會產生影響？

Well, first, and just in terms of pressure, the underutilization in the category puts pressure on pricing. But if you look at our business, we benefited from a strong operational performance and then the restructuring actions that we have taken. Our commercial business is holding up with continued strength in our builder channel. We've leveraged our ceramic service centers to grow contractor sales and increasing our position with kitchen and bath dealers and our domestically produced quartz countertops are outperforming other work surfaces.

首先，就壓力而言，該類別的利用不足給定價帶來了壓力。但如果你看看我們的業務，我們受益於強勁的營運業績以及我們採取的重組行動。我們的商業業務在建築商通路中持續保持強勁。我們利用我們的陶瓷服務中心來增加承包商的銷售額，並提高我們在廚房和浴室經銷商中的地位，而且我們國產的石英檯面表現優於其他工作檯面。

Just to remind you that ceramic industry, a large part of the US comes from around the world and these excess capacities from around the world are ending up in this market, too.

需要提醒你的是，美國的陶瓷產業很大一部分來自世界各地，而來自世界各地的過剩產能最終也流入了這個市場。

Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs.

高盛的蘇珊馬克拉里 (Susan Maklari)。

Taking a longer-term type of view, you've talked in the past about getting the business to a 10% margin. And then even moving higher from there. As you just think about all the cost actions and the things that you are driving in the business from both a product and a margin perspective, do you still think that you are on track get to that? And can you get there even if things do remain a bit more challenged just given what's going on in the business fundamentally?

從長遠角度來看，您過去曾談到將業務利潤率提高到 10%。然後從那裡進一步走高。當您從產品和利潤的角度考慮所有的成本行動和您在業務中推動的事情時，您是否仍然認為您已經走在了正確的軌道上？即使事情確實仍然存在一些挑戰，考慮到業務的基本狀況，您能實現目標嗎？

At the moment, the industry is at very difficult conditions given we're at the cyclical bottom of the cycle. Here in the U.S., the housing sales are at the lowest point since 1995, which is creating the pressure on everything. we expect that a recovery we're going to get back to, it will take multiple years to get back to the historical trend lines and that the postponed remodeling, higher home sales, improved business investment at the time will significantly improve the utilization of our assets.

目前，由於我們正處於週期性的底部，因此該行業處於非常困難的境況。在美國，房屋銷售量正處於1995年以來的最低點，這給一切都帶來了壓力。我們預計經濟將恢復，需要數年時間才能回到歷史趨勢線，而推遲的改造、更高的房屋銷售、當時改善的商業投資將顯著提高我們資產的利用率。

It will increase the average mix of what we're doing. And then to remind you again, flooring in general, has a much higher correlation to home turnovers because when people right before they remodel, right before they sell the home, they tend to remodel or right after they move in, they tend to remodel. So we're getting -- our category is more impacted by that. On the other hand, when we come out of it, it's going to help us much more. At the same time, when a consumer purchases the product, they purchase higher-quality products in the retail remodeling part of the business, which is the most impacted by the categories at the moment.

這將增加我們所做工作的平均組合。然後再提醒你一下，一般來說，地板與房屋週轉率有更高的相關性，因為人們在裝修之前、出售房屋之前或搬進新家之後往往會進行裝修。因此，我們的類別受到的影響更大。另一方面，當我們走出困境時，它會為我們帶來更多幫助。同時，消費者在購買產品的時候，會購買零售重塑業務中品質較高的產品，而這部分是目前受品類影響最大的。

Just to state the obvious, all of our regions are really experiencing the same substantial declines in volume and margin compression that I assume they're going to come out slightly different as we go forward, but we're expecting them to help us get leverage on the restructuring, which is going to be about $285 million when it's all complete. The leverage goes up, our manufacturing cost should drop, and we should get leverage on our SG&A, which will help us get back to the higher margins that we want to be at.

顯而易見的是，我們所有地區實際上都經歷了銷售和利潤率壓縮的大幅下降，我認為隨著我們向前發展，它們會略有不同，但我們預計它們將幫助我們獲得重組的槓桿作用，重組完成後將達到約 2.85 億美元。槓桿率上升，我們的製造成本就會下降，我們應該在銷售、一般及行政開支上獲得槓桿，這將有助於我們回到我們想要的更高利潤率。

Okay. That's helpful. And then turning to the cash flows in the balance sheet. It was nice to see you buying back stock again this quarter. The business has been generating approximately $700 million of free cash in the last 2 years, even with all the pressure that you've been under. Can you talk a bit about how you're thinking about the uses of cash going forward? How buybacks could fit into that and how you're thinking about M&A as well, perhaps?

好的。這很有幫助。然後轉向資產負債表中的現金流量。很高興看到您本季再次回購股票。儘管您承受著巨大的壓力，但該業務在過去 2 年中仍產生了約 7 億美元的自由現金。您能否談談您對未來現金用途的看法？回購如何適應這種情況以及您對併購有何看法？

Yes, Susan. As we look at the generation of free cash flow, we would expect to increase our investments in the business as the market improves to take advantage and grow both from a product innovation, which kind of sets us apart in the marketplace and also cost reductions. we should see more opportunities, as you just said, to acquire more businesses as the environment strengthens.

是的，蘇珊。當我們考慮自由現金流的產生時，我們會期望隨著市場的改善而增加對業務的投資，以利用產品創新的優勢並實現成長，這使我們在市場上脫穎而出，同時也降低了成本。正如您剛才所說，隨著環境的改善，我們應該看到更多收購更多企業的機會。

Right now, the M&A activity in our sector, at least is very quiet, as you would expect. And we'll continue to buy shares as we have in the past as part of our cash usage and our strategy as we move forward. If you think about just one other point. Since 2020, we have purchased about 14% of our outstanding shares at a total cost of about $1.6 billion. So we will continue to utilize that as part of our strategy.

目前，我們行業的併購活動至少非常平靜，正如您所期望的那樣。我們將像過去一樣繼續購買股票，作為我們現金使用和未來策略的一部分。如果你只考慮另一點。自 2020 年以來，我們已回購了約 14% 的流通股，總成本約為 16 億美元。因此我們將繼續將其作為我們策略的一部分。

Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI.

Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

Appreciate all the color so far, and best of luck, Chris, with everything. I guess my first question relates to the outage that you experienced in Flooring North America. I understood what you said about your impacts in the 1Q. What I thought was a little interesting was that I might have expected that some of the missed sales in 1Q would actually lead to a sort of a better-than-normal trend opportunity in 2Q or maybe 2Q, 3Q, something like that. But it sounds like you're sort of leaving the door open for perhaps a little bit of continued sales impact. Just wanted to see if I could -- if we could explore that a little bit. Why is it that you wouldn't get actually a rebound and better-than-normal sales cadence on the other side ofit?

欣賞迄今為止的所有色彩，祝克里斯一切順利。我想我的第一個問題與您在北美地板公司遇到的停電有關。我了解您所說的第一季的影響。我認為有點有趣的是，我可能已經預料到，第一季錯失的一些銷售實際上會為第二季、或第二季、第三季等帶來比正常情況更好的趨勢機會。但這聽起來像是你為持續的銷售影響留下了空間。只是想看看我是否可以——我們是否可以稍微探索一下。為什麼你實際上並沒有獲得反彈並且獲得比正常更好的銷售節奏？

See. A lot of the business is for immediate jobs. And the question is, did you miss the immediate jobs that are there? Or is it going to be postponed. The customers who carry significant inventories, the amount of time that we were behind was very limited. So we're back to normal. We are able to ship them whatever they want today.

看。很多業務都是緊急任務。問題是，您是否懷念那裡眼前的工作？或者說會被推遲。對於擁有大量庫存的客戶，我們落後的時間非常有限。所以我們就恢復正常了。我們今天能把他們想要的任何東西運送給他們。

So the real question is, do we lose any relationships that are there. We think that long term, we haven't. But it's only been a limited period of time to evaluate the actual what's going to happen. So we'll know better over the next couple of months.

所以真正的問題是，我們是否會失去任何存在的關係。我們認為，從長遠來看，我們還沒有做到這一點。但目前只能用有限的時間來評估實際情況。因此我們將在接下來的幾個月內了解更多情況。

All right. That's fine. And then a broader question. I know that we're all waiting for the turn in R&R, and we talked about in the past how that typically comes hand-in-hand with better mix because people tend to -- those kinds of people tend to buy higher quality products. But in the U.S., there's sort of an odd situation where you're seeing a lot of relatively greater strength in the move-up price points right now. I'm talking for houses. And the entry level of the market is obviously very locked up. because of the mortgage rates and that -- and at the lower price points, the homeowners literally can't move up because they just can't afford that jump in mortgage rate.

好的。沒關係。然後是一個更廣泛的問題。我知道我們都在等待 R&R 的轉變，我們過去討論過這通常與更好的組合相伴而生，因為人們傾向於——這些人傾向於購買更高品質的產品。但在美國，存在一種奇怪的情況，你現在會看到價格上漲的勢頭相對較強。我指的是房子。而且市場的進入門檻顯然非常嚴格。因為抵押貸款利率——在較低的價格點，房主實際上無法提高房價，因為他們無法承受抵押貸款利率的上漲。

So I think the lock-in effect is probably more prevalent at the lower price point. And so what I guess I'm saying is that if we were to see the -- an improvement in existing home sales, might it be that you see more of an improvement in -- with consumers who actually are not going to be paying up as much for products, and therefore, you might actually not see the typical product mix, a positive product mix that you would normally expect to see when a cycle recovers.

因此我認為鎖定效應在較低的價格點可能更為普遍。所以我想說的是，如果我們看到現有房屋銷售有所改善，那麼是否會看到更多的改善——消費者實際上不會為產品支付太多費用，因此，您可能實際上看不到典型的產品組合，即在周期復甦時通常會看到的積極的產品組合。

I'm just curious if you've consider that, if that's something you think is a valid thing? And then lastly, is this dynamic just simply a U.S. phenomenon where you have sort of this relative -- much greater relative weakness at the entry level rather than the move-up?

我只是好奇您是否考慮過這一點，您是否認為這是一件有效的事情？最後，這種動態是否只是美國的現象，在入門階段，相對弱勢比在上升階段大得多？

See, to take the question, we are seeing more strength at the bottom at the top, which goes along with what you're saying as we see it. Also the large home construction companies are trying to keep the prices of homes down. So that part of the market is using very low-quality products to get by with a limited spending as they can.

看到，回答這個問題，我們看到底部和頂部的力量越來越強，這與你所說的一致。大型房屋建築公司也盡力壓低房價。因此，這部分市場正在使用品質極低的產品，以盡可能節省開支。

We think that the consumer who owns the house has been postponing remodeling of it. And usually, they don't go to the lower price point that you use in either some of the new construction or some of the multifamily things that have been doing well. So when they come in, we think that it's going to come into the middle part of the market and some of the middle will trade up more than they're doing now since they're concerned about the future.

我們認為，擁有這棟房子的消費者一直在推遲對房子的改造。而且通常，他們不會採用某些新建築或某些表現良好的多戶住宅所採用的較低價格點。因此，當他們進入時，我們認為他們將進入市場的中端部分，並且由於他們擔心未來，其中一些中端市場的交易量將比現在更大。

The people with money always have money, but the bottom end of that market, they tend to trade down to when they get concerned or postponed. So we believe that we're still going to see an improvement in the mix as we come out of this.

有錢人總是有錢，但是當他們感到擔憂或推遲時，他們往往會交易到市場底端。因此，我們相信，當我們走出困境時，我們仍會看到組合狀況的改善。

Sam Reid with Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的 Sam Reid。

So I wanted to talk for North America margins here a little bit. It sounds like volumes were again positive in the segment, if I heard you guys correctly, but we did see a year-over-year margin pullback. I realize there's some input cost pressures that muddy the water here.

所以我想在這裡談談北美的利潤率。如果我沒聽錯的話，聽起來該部門的銷量再次呈正增長，但我們確實看到利潤率同比有所回落。我意識到有些投入成本壓力讓情況變得複雜。

But could you give us a sense as to where some of those incremental volumes that you're getting are coming from? It sounds like it's a function of kind of lower margin channels or end markets, perhaps homebuilders and home centers. Just want to understand sort of what those dynamics actually look like and sort of why incremental volumes aren't necessarily driving an improvement in F&A margins?

但是您能否告訴我們，您獲得的那些增量來自哪裡？這聽起來像是某種低利潤通路或終端市場（可能是房屋建築商和家居中心）的功能。只是想了解這些動態實際上是什麼樣的，以及為什麼增量並不一定會推動財務和行政利潤率的提高？

Volumes have gone up, but we've been more aggressive in the marketplace with pricing. We've been able to improve the mix somewhat, but the pricing and mix are more than offsetting the volume that's hanging in where it is in general is it. Also, the -- remember that there were extra days in the period that you have to take to get it on an equalized basis.

銷售量已經上升，但我們在市場上的定價也更積極。我們已經能夠在一定程度上改善產品組合，但定價和產品組合已經超過了整體上懸而未決的銷售。另外，請記住，您必須花費額外的天數才能在均衡的基礎上獲得它。

The other side, Sam, is, you are seeing cost increase as well, which is we have strong productivity in the segment, but that's being really used or countered by increasing costs that we've seen in materials start to flow through the P&L. So that's also putting pressure on those incremental margins that you're speaking of.

另一方面，山姆，你也看到成本在增加，也就是說，我們在這個領域擁有強大的生產力，但這實際上被我們看到的材料成本增加所利用或抵消，這些成本開始流入損益表。所以這也給您所說的增量利潤帶來了壓力。

No, that helps. And maybe just switching gears. You talked a little bit about capacity utilization at a high level on the call already. But maybe just to put a finer point on that. Could you unpack where those utilization rates sit today, especially for some of these really important categories like U.S. carpet and U.S. ceramics. And then kind of the knock-on question there would be, where would we need to see capacity utilization go before the category would be in a position to take price?

不，這有幫助。或許只是換個話題。您已經在電話會議上談到了高水準的產能利用率問題。但也許只是為了更詳細地闡述這一點。您能否解釋一下目前的使用率水平，特別是一些非常重要的類別，例如美國地毯和美國陶瓷。然後就會出現一個連鎖問題，我們需要看到產能利用率達到什麼水平，該類別才能定價？

In general, the capacity utilizations tend to be ranging from 70% to 80% at this point. If you go to historically when the markets are operating like they have in recoveries, we're operating in 90 or more is it so you get a lot of leverage out of the cost when that happens. What was the other part of the question?

整體而言，此時產能利用率往往在 70% 至 80% 之間。如果您回顧歷史，當市場像復甦時那樣運作時，我們的運作時間是 90% 或更長，因此當這種情況發生時，您可以從成本中獲得很大的槓桿作用。問題的另一部分是什麼？

And you get less pressure on pricing as utilization goes up because that means you have strengthening demand.

隨著利用率的提高，定價壓力也會減小，因為這意味著需求增強。

The competitors and we are taking lower margins trying to operate and reduce the unabsorbed overhead costs. So that's compressing the margins. And then you have the other part, which is the lower mix, which the categories that are doing better are under more pressure.

我們和競爭對手都以較低的利潤率努力運作並減少未吸收的間接成本。這會壓縮利潤空間。然後還有另一部分，即較低的組合，表現較好的類別承受的壓力更大。

Keith Hughes with Truist.

基斯休斯 (Keith Hughes) 和 Truist。

Just wanted to ask about the $200 and I believe you said $85 million of restructuring saves. How much of that is realized in '24? Do you have a view of how much will be saving in '25?

只是想問一下那 200 美元，我相信您說的是重組節省了 8500 萬美元。其中有多少是在'24年實現的？您預計 25 年可以省下多少錢？

So in terms of the restructuring plans across the business, in 2024, we realized about $80 million from a year-over-year perspective. And in '25, our expectation is to see that grow to about $100 million from a year-over-year perspective. And just to remind you the segments, we're exiting a combination of unprofitable products, closing plants, taking out inefficient assets along with streamlining our distribution and warehouses, lowering administrative costs and reducing product complexity, which is key to helping grow that productivity.

因此，就整個業務的重組計劃而言，到 2024 年，我們將實現年增約 8,000 萬美元。而在'25年，我們預計這一數字將年增至約 1 億美元。提醒一下各位，我們正在退出一系列無利可圖的產品，關閉工廠，拆除低效資產，同時精簡我們的分銷和倉庫，降低管理成本，降低產品複雜性，這是幫助提高生產力的關鍵。

Okay. Just to make sure. The $100 million is income and in '25 is incremental, that would be $180 million over the 2 years. Is that the what you're saying it?

好的。只是為了確保。這 1 億美元是收入，而 25 年是增量，也就是兩年內將達到 1.8 億美元。這就是你所說的嗎？

That's what I'm saying, yes. And then as we said, the projects will finish up by the end of -- or during 2026.

是的，這就是我要說的。正如我們所說，這些項目將在 2026 年底或 2026 年期間完成。

'26. Okay. And 1 question for you, Jeff. You mentioned in '25, it was something about -- you thought you might have some more positive mix. I just want to make sure I heard that right. Where do you think you would see that.

'26。好的。傑夫，我還有一個問題想問你。您提到，在 25 年，這是關於——您認為您可能會有一些更積極的組合。我只是想確定我聽得沒錯。您認為您會在哪裡看到它？

The positive mix is coming from the new introductions that we're putting out and the have higher average selling prices and margins on the old ones, so the churning of the product line does -- helps the mix.

正面的產品組合來自於我們推出的新產品，而且它們的平均銷售價格和利潤率高於舊產品，因此產品線的更新確實有助於產品組合。

Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Michael Rehaut。

First, I just wanted to clarify an earlier comment, I think, Jim, that you made about 2Q seeing normal seasonality off of the first quarter in both sales and margins. I assume -- does that kind of -- when you talk about normal seasonality sequentially, is that off of the adjusted numbers, if you were to add back that $0.35 and the various impacts of that, just trying to understand the baseline there.

首先，吉姆，我想，我只是想澄清一下你之前的評論，即第二季度的銷售額和利潤率都與第一季相比出現了正常的季節性變化。我假設 - 當您連續談論正常的季節性時，是否根據調整後的數字，如果您加回 0.35 美元及其各種影響，只是試圖了解那裡的基線。

Absolutely, Mike. The baseline here is absent any impact of the Flooring North America system issue I'm just doing an apples-to-apples. So if you set that aside and you look at the move from Q1 to Q2, what I am saying is that from a -- I would expect that it would be in line with historical growth, both on sales and from an EBIT margin perspective.

當然，麥克。這裡的基準不受北美地板系統問題的影響，我只是進行了同類比較。因此，如果您將其放在一邊，並查看從第一季到第二季的變化，我想說的是，從銷售額和息稅前利潤率的角度來看，我預計它將與歷史成長保持一致。

Great. Great. And then I also thought it would be pretty helpful if you could break out, if possible, what the impact on -- from currency and the natural gas costs that have kind of risen, how -- if there's any way to kind of quantify or roughly quantify what those impacts are expected to be on first quarter and how those might persist over the next quarter or 2?

偉大的。偉大的。然後，我還認為，如果您可以盡可能詳細地說明貨幣和天然氣成本上升對其造成的影響，是否有任何方法可以量化或粗略地量化這些影響預計會在第一季產生什麼影響，以及這些影響在未來一兩個季度可能如何持續？

Yes. So as I said before, you'll see some lag of that higher cost flowing through the P&L. So I would expect, I would see, a ramp-up of the cost impact in quarters 2 and 3 right now would be our projection, inflation would be a headwind, also material costs as well.

是的。所以正如我之前所說的，您會看到較高的成本在損益表中流動時有所滯後。因此，我預計，目前第二季和第三季的成本影響將會增加，通貨膨脹將是一個阻力，材料成本也是如此。

From a currency standpoint, it continues to evolve, as you well know, with the strengthening dollar. But I would expect that to continue to be a drag on operating income it could be in the mid-single digits from our total earnings that we get outside of the US.

從貨幣角度來看，眾所周知，隨著美元的走強，這種情況仍在繼續演變。但我預計，這將繼續拖累營業收入，可能會占到我們在美國以外總收入的中等個位數。

So just to make sure I'm understanding, you're saying -- I apologize, kind of mid-single digits -- is that in the millions of dollars? Or is that an EPS number? And then also in terms of the natural gas, you said that it would be likely higher in 2Q and 3Q. Again, just trying to get any type of quantification off of that and what might -- what might it be both of these issues, again, impacting earnings in the first quarter guide?

所以，為了確保我理解正確，您說的是 — — 抱歉，大概是中等個位數 — — 是數百萬美元嗎？或者這是一個每股收益數字？然後就天然氣而言，您說第二季和第三季的價格可能會更高。再次，只是試圖從中獲得任何類型的量化，以及可能——這兩個問題可能再次影響第一季收益指南嗎？

Yes. It tough to -- on the first quarter, it's difficult to absolutely quantify our assumption is that we'll have limited impact in the first quarter on energy. It will be more in the second quarter as it flows through the P&L. And on the impact of FX, as I said, that would be an operating income level. So you could be in the high single digits of operating income, so somewhere around $7 million and $10 million of an impact in the first quarter.

是的。很難——在第一季度，很難絕對量化我們的假設，即我們在第一季對能源的影響有限。隨著它流入損益表，第二季的數量將會更多。關於外匯的影響，正如我所說，這將是一個營業收入水準。因此，您的營業收入可能會達到個位數的高位，即第一季的影響約為 700 萬美元至 1,000 萬美元。

Tim Wojs with Baird.

沃伊斯 (Tim Wojs) 和貝爾德 (Baird)。

I guess there's a lot of moving pieces kind of in the market and kind of underlying. But as you look at the 3 segments as you report it. Is there a way to kind of talk about what you think those markets grew on an underlying basis in 2024 relative to what you've reported from a growth perspective?

我想，市場中和潛在因素中存在著許多變動因素。但當您查看報告的 3 個部分時。有沒有辦法談談您認為這些市場在 2024 年的基本成長情況，相對於您所報告的成長？

So looking at each of -- it is difficult because you've got the influence of both the U.S. market and outside of the U.S. We normally look at the U.S. that Flooring grows kind of close to GDP, but it's been so under pressure with demand. What we've seen is our hard surface business. So laminate and LVT have grown at a much faster pace than soft surfaces.

因此，縱觀每一個因素，這都很困難，因為你受到美國市場和美國以外市場的影響。我們通常認為，在美國，地板產業的成長接近 GDP，但它一直面臨需求壓力。我們看到的是我們的硬表面業務。因此，層壓板和 LVT 的增長速度比軟表面快得多。

Ceramics, as Jeff indicated earlier, is very impacted by the imports in the U.S., but we continue to maintain very high level of share in the U.S. Outside the U.S. and Europe, the ceramic business continues to improve from a mix perspective, even though pricing and demand is very much under pressure. So our porcelain slab business is doing well and helping that mix. But the demand and pricing is certainly under pressure.

正如傑夫之前所說，陶瓷受到美國進口的很大影響，但我們在美國仍然保持非常高的份額。在美國和歐洲以外，儘管價格和需求面臨很大壓力，但陶瓷業務從組合角度來看仍在繼續改善。因此，我們的磁磚業務表現良好，並有助於實現這一目標。但需求和定價確實面臨壓力。

And then as you go kind of South, Latin America is seeing that same price and mix pressure with their interest rates, Brazil actually increased their interest rates in the midst of this. So demand levels are very much constrained in those regions as well.

然後，當你向南看時，拉丁美洲也面臨著同樣的價格和混合利率壓力，巴西實際上在此期間提高了利率。因此這些地區的需求水準也受到嚴重限制。

The high interest rates around the world trying to reduce inflation impacted all the markets the same. The volumes all decreased. The pressure on the utilization of all the factories decreased, the pressure on pricing was very similar from one market to the next and to improve our position, it's mostly focused on driving either increasing the distribution on one hand or improving the mix to try to get the average price up given that it's very difficult to get pricing in all the markets. So there's not a lot of difference in them.

全球各地為降低通膨而採取的高利率對所有市場都產生了同樣的影響。成交量全部下降。所有工廠的利用率壓力都有所下降，不同市場之間的定價壓力非常相似，為了提高我們的地位，我們主要集中於要么增加分銷，要么改善產品組合，試圖提高平均價格，因為在所有市場都獲得定價非常困難。所以它們之間沒有太大的差別。

Okay. I mean I guess my question was more around like do you feel like you're gaining share in the majority of your markets? Or do you feel like you're growing more in line with the market?

好的。我的意思是，我想我的問題更多的是，您是否覺得您在大多數市場上的份額正在擴大？或者您覺得自己的發展更符合市場潮流？

And it's different by market. I think in most markets, we're either flat or gained a little.

且不同的市場有不同的情況。我認為在大多數市場中，我們要么持平，要么略有增長。

Okay. Good. And then just a quick one. Just in Flooring North America, just like high level, could you just give us a sense for how big hard surface versus soft surfaces right now.

好的。好的。然後就很快了。就像在北美地板展上，就像高層一樣，您能否讓我們了解目前硬表面和軟表面的大小。

I don't have those numbers in front of me.

我面前沒有這些數字。

Yes. As we disclosed, hard surfaces is still running below soft surfaces, residential soft and commercial soft still our larger, but laminate and LVT combined are certainly catching up.

是的。正如我們所揭露的，硬質表面仍然低於軟質表面，住宅軟質表面和商業軟質表面仍然規模較大，但層壓板和 LVT 的結合肯定正在迎頭趕上。

John Lovallo with UBS.

瑞銀的 John Lovallo。

Maybe just from a high level, obviously, existing home turnover has been a headwind. One of the things that's been interesting is that rates have been high, but the prime rate has come in a bit. There's been a little bit more talk about potentially folks kind of leaning into home equity a little bit more than they have in the recent past. I mean, given the high-ticket nature of flooring, I mean, how are you thinking about that dynamic playing out as we move through 2025?

或許僅從高層來看，顯然現房成交量一直是個阻力。有趣的是，利率一直很高，但優惠利率卻下降。最近有越來越多的討論稱，人們可能會比過去更傾向於購買房屋淨值產品。我的意思是，考慮到地板的高價位性質，您如何看待 2025 年時這種動態的發展？

Well, looking at interest rates, central banks have cut rates. So we're really not seeing housing turnover improve that much. In the U.S., you're also seeing mortgage rate spreads increase, which is really offsetting some of the short-term declines. The recovery really, as Jeff has indicated, will be different by region. And we're taking, obviously, many actions to improve our results, whether that be in sales or cost. But certainly, as the industry recovers, we're going to see an increase in our utilization and the ability to expand our margins.

那麼，從利率來看，各國央行已經降息了。因此我們確實沒有看到住房週轉率有那麼大的改善。在美國，你還會看到抵押貸款利差擴大，這實際上抵消了部分短期下跌。正如傑夫所指出的，復甦情況確實因地區而異。顯然，我們正在採取許多措施來改善我們的業績，無論是在銷售方面還是在成本方面。但可以肯定的是，隨著產業復甦，我們的利用率將會提高，利潤率也會提高。

At this point, with our plans, we don't have a significant recovery showing up, but we're hoping it does.

目前，按照我們的計劃，還沒有明顯的復甦跡象，但我們希望能夠出現。

Got you. I mean, I guess I was wondering just about on the ability for folks to extract equity from their homes and use that as a catalyst for R&R. If you had any thoughts around that.

明白了。我的意思是，我只是想知道人們是否有能力從他們的房屋中提取資產，並將其作為 R&R 的催化劑。如果您對此有任何想法。

When the confidence raises, they have significant money available to them given the price of houses. And so it should help the recovery when it occurs.

當信心增強時，考慮到房價，他們就有大量資金可用。因此，當這種情況發生時，它應該有助於恢復。

Okay. Fair enough. And then maybe the second question is the flooring industry, as you mentioned in a tough spot here for a few years. Your balance sheet is been really good shape. I mean it seems like it could create an opportunity for you guys to take advantage of the situation. I mean how are you thinking about the ability to be a little bit more acquisitive in 2025, expanded into new products or regions or whatever it may be?

好的。很公平。那麼第二個問題可能是地板行業，正如您所提到的，該行業幾年來一直處於困境。你的資產負債表狀況非常好。我的意思是，這似乎可以為你們創造一個利用這種情況的機會。我的意思是，您如何看待 2025 年增強收購能力，擴展到新產品、新地區或其他什麼領域？

At this point, given the compression of the earnings, most people that are doing okay, are not aggressively looking to sell. So usually, as you coming out of these downturns and the margins start going up, more opportunities show up, and we agree that we're well positioned to take advantage of them.

此時，考慮到獲利受到的壓縮，大多數狀況還不錯的人並沒有積極尋求出售。因此通常情況下，當你走出這些低迷並且利潤率開始上升時，就會出現更多的機會，而我們都認為我們有能力利用這些機會。

Phil Ing with Jefferies.

傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的 Phil Ing。

Jim, I appreciate the color that the nat gas impact will be more impactful from a P&L standpoint, 2Q, 3Q. But any way to size that up in terms of gas input or just broader inflation in general. And certainly, the million question is around pricing. It's a tough environment, but you're seeing costs go higher have you or your competitors taking price and then in your markets? And from a mix comment, you talked about new products, but should we think of mix holistically up overall? Any color would be helpful.

吉姆，從損益表的角度來看，我很欣賞天然氣的影響在第二季、第三季會更大。但任何方法都不能根據天然氣投入量或整體通膨情況來衡量。當然，最主要的問題是關於定價。這是一個艱難的環境，但您是否看到成本在上漲，您或您的競爭對手是否在您所在的市場中採取了降價措施？從混合評論來看，您談到了新產品，但我們應該從整體上考慮混合嗎？任何顏色都會有幫助。

Well, in terms of the gas impact, I'll just reiterate that in the U.S., we have seen the higher costs, and we'll see some limited impact certainly as we get into the first quarter. In Europe, the gas cost has increased, but still dramatically below the peak. We have -- as we've said in the past, we do some prebuying in Europe to try to help limit the volatility of that -- of those increases. Pricing, you're right, is very difficult, and we're doing it in very strategic areas, maybe more on the higher-end products. But again, there's a lot of competition for volume because of where the demand is at this point.

嗯，就天然氣的影響而言，我只想重申，在美國，我們已經看到了更高的成本，而且進入第一季度，我們肯定會看到一些有限的影響。在歐洲，天然氣成本有所上漲，但仍遠低於高峰。正如我們過去所說的那樣，我們在歐洲進行了一些預購，以試圖幫助限制這些成長的波動。您說得對，定價確實非常困難，而且我們在非常具有策略性的領域進行定價，可能更多地是在高端產品上。但同樣，由於目前的需求，產量競爭非常激烈。

As we said, we think that the mix improvements, productivity initiatives and specific pricing actions are going to basically help cover the rising costs and the headwinds from the stronger dollar is it. And we think we're going to have to have some pricing to help us get the margins back where we want. The question is, will the market allow it or not this year. we're assuming it's going to be difficult to pass through most of it.

正如我們所說，我們認為組合改善、生產力措施和特定的定價行動基本上有助於彌補成本上升和美元走強帶來的阻力。我們認為我們必須進行一些定價來幫助我們將利潤率恢復到我們想要的水平。問題是，今年市場會不會允許這樣做。我們預計，通過其中的大部分步驟將會十分困難。

Yes. And remember what Jeff said earlier on the call is that absent the impact of the system issue, we should see a slight improvement in overall earnings and the only way we get there is the balance between productivity offsetting inflation and then some favorability on the mix side.

是的。記得傑夫早些時候在電話會議上說過，如果沒有系統問題的影響，我們應該會看到整體收益略有改善，而實現這一目標的唯一方法是在生產力抵消通貨膨脹與混合方面的一些有利因素之間取得平衡。

Okay. Great. That's helpful color. In terms of tariffs, appreciating it's a very fluid situation. I guess, how do you see that impacting your business, right? When you look at your peers, you're competing with largely players ex carpet importing product in. Is that going to be a good guy from a pricing standpoint? And remind us how you're set up from a Mexico exposure. You got an LVT facility, ceramic as well. So holistically, tariffs that's proposed, is this a good guy from a price margin standpoint? And then anything that we be mindful from an operation and supply chain standpoint as well?

好的。偉大的。這是很有幫助的顏色。就關稅而言，這是一個非常不穩定的情況。我想，您認為這會對您的業務產生什麼影響呢？當你審視你的同行時，你會發現你的主要競爭對手是地毯進口產品製造商。從定價角度來說，這會是個好人嗎？並提醒我們您是如何從墨西哥的風險中獲益的。你有一個 LVT 設施，還有陶瓷。那麼從整體來看，所提議的關稅從價格利潤率的角度來看是好事嗎？那麼從營運和供應鏈的角度來看我們還要注意什麼嗎？

Well, let's start out that we have no idea what they're going to be, how they're going to be executed and what's going to happen. Other than that, we have a clear view. Presently, so breaking it down, we import products from Mexico where we make ceramic and LVT. Both of those were reviewing alternatives to move to other factories that we own, and we're also looking at potentially outsourcing them as well as what you would be able to do with pricing if there were significant changes in it.

好吧，首先我們不知道它們會是什麼，它們會如何被執行以及會發生什麼。除此之外，我們有一個清晰的看法。目前，細分來看，我們從生產陶瓷和 LVT 的墨西哥進口產品。我們正在研究轉移到我們自己的其他工廠的替代方案，我們也在考慮潛在的外包，以及如果發生重大變化，您可以對定價做些什麼。

In China, we have very limited we buy out of China. And what we do, we're actually moving large pieces of it already to other places. And so those are the big pieces. We think that when it occurs, if it occurs like it is, when it occurred with China a few years ago, you had also a change in the exchange rates. So it's possible that a part of it will be offset by exchange rates going on. And then depending upon what it is, we'll just have to react to it as it occurs, but it's impossible to know what to do at this moment.

在中國，我們的海外採購非常有限。我們所做的實際上已經將大部分內容轉移到其他地方。這些都是大塊的。我們認為，當這種情況發生時，如果像幾年前在中國發生的情況那樣，匯率也會改變。因此，其中的一部分可能會因匯率的變化而被抵消。然後，根據情況的不同，我們必須在它發生時做出反應，但此時不可能知道該做什麼。

Yes, if you think it's a net positive, neutral or a modest headwind for you guys because your competitive landscape is largely importing.

是的，如果你認為這對你們來說是一個淨正面、中性或適度的逆風，因為你們的競爭格局在很大程度上是進口的。

I think the imports we're doing from Mexico, it will be negative 2%. On the other hand, that might give us some positives in manufacturing in U.S. should help some of those and how it balances out as anybody to guess what's going to happen since we don't even know what it is.

我認為我們從墨西哥的進口額將為負2%。另一方面，這可能會給我們帶來一些積極的影響，美國製造業應該會對此有所幫助，因為它如何平衡，任何人都可以猜測會發生什麼，因為我們甚至不知道它是什麼。

Laura Champine with Loop Capital.

Loop Capital 的 Laura Champine。

It's actually a follow-up on let's call them potential tariffs on North America. What percentage of your overall sales are imported from Mexico? And then a little more Farfetch, but totally possible. I know that you export product from the U.S. to Canada. What percentage of your sales is in that bucket?

這實際上是對我們稱之為北美潛在關稅的後續行動。你們總銷售額中有多少比例是從墨西哥進口的？然後再多一點 Farfetch，但完全有可能。我知道你們從美國出口產品到加拿大。您的銷售額中有多少比例屬於這一類別？

So we import somewhere around $300 million from Mexico, and we export approximately $200 million to Canada.

因此，我們從墨西哥進口了大約 3 億美元，向加拿大出口了約 2 億美元。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jeff Lorberbaum for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給 Jeff Lorberbaum 來做結束語。

We appreciate everyone joining us. The recovery is going to come and will significantly improve our results as the market rebounds back to where it was historically. Thanks for joining us again, and have a good day.

我們感謝大家的加入。復甦即將到來，隨著市場反彈至歷史水平，我們的業績將顯著改善。感謝您再次加入我們，祝您有個愉快的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。