莫霍克工業集團 (MHK) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Mohawk Industries third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions). Please note this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加莫霍克工業公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）。請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to hand the call to James Brunk. Please go ahead.

我現在想把電話轉給詹姆斯布倫克。請繼續。

Thank you, Andrea. Good morning. Welcome to Mohawk Industries quarterly investor conference call. Joining me on today's call are Jeff Lorberbaum, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Wellborn, President and Chief Operating Officer. Today, we'll update you on the company's third quarter performance and provide guidance for the fourth quarter of 2024.

謝謝你，安德里亞。早安.歡迎參加莫霍克工業季度投資者電話會議。與我一起參加今天電話會議的還有董事長兼執行長 Jeff Lorberbaum；以及總裁兼營運長 Chris Wellborn。今天，我們將向您介紹公司第三季業績的最新情況，並提供 2024 年第四季的指引。

I'd like to remind everyone that our press release and statements that we make during this call may include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, those set forth in our press release and our periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call may include discussion of non-GAAP numbers. For a reconciliation of any non-GAAP to GAAP amounts, please refer to our Form 8-K and press release in the Investors section of our website.

我想提醒大家，我們在本次電話會議中發表的新聞稿和聲明可能包括1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的前瞻性聲明，這些聲明受到各種風險和不確定性的影響，包括但不限於僅限於我們的新聞稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會定期提交的文件中規定的內容。這次電話會議可能包括對非公認會計原則數字的討論。有關任何非 GAAP 與 GAAP 金額的調整表，請參閱我們的表格 8-K 和我們網站投資者部分的新聞稿。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff.

這樣，我就把電話轉給傑夫。

Thanks, Jim. Good morning, everyone. We delivered a solid third quarter performance and soft market conditions with earnings per share of $2.90, an increase of approximately 7%, which reflects the positive impact of our sales initiatives, productivity and restructuring actions and lower input costs, partially offset by pricing and mix pressure. Our net sales for the quarter were $2.7 billion, down approximately 2% compared to last year.

謝謝，吉姆。大家早安。我們第三季業績強勁，市場環境疲軟，每股盈餘為2.90 美元，成長約7%，這反映了我們的銷售計劃、生產力和重組行動以及較低投入成本的正面影響，部分被定價和組合所抵銷壓力。我們本季的淨銷售額為 27 億美元，比去年下降約 2%。

Due to our increased earnings and management of working capital, we generated free cash flow of approximately $204 million in the quarter for a total of approximately $443 million year to date. This year, we're investing approximately $450 million in capital projects that are focused on growth, reducing cost and asset maintenance. In all of our regions, market conditions were slower than anticipated given high interest rates, lingering inflation and lower consumer confidence.

由於我們的收入和營運資金管理的增加，我們在本季產生了約 2.04 億美元的自由現金流，今年迄今總計約 4.43 億美元。今年，我們將投資約 4.5 億美元用於專注於成長、降低成本和資產維護的資本項目。在我們所有地區，由於高利率、持續的通貨膨脹和較低的消費者信心，市場狀況慢於預期。

Pricing remained under pressure as industry demand in the third quarter continued to decline due to slowing in both residential and commercial activity. Our sales initiatives delivered volume gains in many product categories, offset by pricing pressures and negative mix. Though the commercial channel has lost some momentum as the year progressed and continue to outperform residential.

由於住宅和商業活動放緩，第三季行業需求持續下降，定價仍面臨壓力。我們的銷售措施在許多產品類別中實現了銷售成長，但被定價壓力和負面組合所抵消。儘管隨著時間的推移，商業管道已經失去了一些動力，但其表現仍然優於住宅。

Our markets -- in our markets, central banks are shifting from a restrictive policy to a more balanced approach to stimulate their economy, which should benefit our industry as consumer and business spending expands. We expect the recent interest rate cuts in US, Europe and Latin America will strengthen housing markets and increased flooring sales as we progress through next year.

我們的市場－在我們的市場中，央行正在從限制性政策轉向更平衡的方法來刺激經濟，隨著消費者和企業支出的擴大，這應該有利於我們的產業。我們預計，隨著明年的進展，美國、歐洲和拉丁美洲最近的降息將增強房地產市場並增加地板銷售。

In the US, the Fed decreased rates by 0.5% in September and appears committed to further rate cuts to reduce restrictions on the economy. In all our markets, residential construction has failed to keep pace with household formations and immigration and additional units must be built to satisfy growing needs. In the US, higher home values have significantly increased equity in homes which should support increased remodeling projects that were postponed over the past few years.

在美國，聯準會 9 月降息 0.5%，似乎承諾進一步降息以減少對經濟的限制。在我們所有的市場中，住宅建設未能跟上家庭形成和移民的步伐，必須建造更多單元來滿足不斷增長的需求。在美國，較高的房屋價值顯著增加了房屋淨值，這應該支持過去幾年推遲的改造項目的增加。

In Europe, some governments have introduced programs to provide financial support for home remodeling to enhance the aging housing stock. All of this will support improvement next year in existing home sales remodeling and new construction. We remain focused on managing controllable aspects of our business to enhance our results, with gross margins under pressure from weaker industry demand, all of our businesses are implementing strategies to maximize volume and plant utilization.

在歐洲，一些政府推出了為房屋改造提供財政支持的計劃，以改善老化的房屋存量。所有這些都將支持明年現有房屋銷售、改造和新建的改善。我們仍然專注於管理業務的可控方面，以提高我們的業績，毛利率受到行業需求疲軟的壓力，我們所有的業務都在實施策略，以最大限度地提高產量和工廠利用率。

To increase sales, we're implementing new product launches, marketing initiatives and promotional activities. We are enhancing productivity and exercising disciplined cost management in all aspects of the business. Our teams are executing the $100 million of restructuring initiatives that we announced last quarter including idling capacity, rationalizing assets, streamlining distribution and reducing administrative costs. Our businesses are making additional cost reductions in SG&A, operations, and logistics. These actions will continue throughout next year to achieve our planned savings.

為了增加銷量，我們正在實施新產品發布、行銷計劃和促銷活動。我們正在提高生產力並在業務的各個方面實行嚴格的成本管理。我們的團隊正在執行上季宣布的 1 億美元重組計劃，包括閒置產能、合理化資產、簡化分銷和降低管理成本。我們的企業正在進一步降低銷售、行政管理、營運和物流成本。這些行動將持續到明年，以實現我們計劃的節約。

Now Jim will review our third quarter results.

現在吉姆將回顧我們第三季的業績。

Thank you, Jeff. Sales for the quarter were just over $2.7 billion. It's a 1.7% decrease as reported and 2.1% on an adjusted basis as continued unfavorable price and mix offset the volume growth in a number of our product categories across the company, especially seen in our flooring North American segment.

謝謝你，傑夫。該季度的銷售額略高於 27 億美元。報告中下降了 1.7%，調整後下降了 2.1%，因為持續不利的價格和產品組合抵消了公司多個產品類別的銷售成長，尤其是北美地板業務。

Gross margin for the quarter was 25.5% as reported or 26.2% on an adjusted basis versus 26.6% in the prior year as the impact of the unfavorable price and mix pressured by the underutilization of assets in our industry, offset the accretion of our productivity actions and lower input costs. SG&A as a percentage of sales was 17.7%, as reported or 17.3% on an adjusted basis, versus 18% in the prior year with benefits from our year-over-year restructuring and cost containment actions. That gives us an operating income as reported of $212 million or 7.8%.

本季的毛利率為報告的25.5%，調整後的毛利率為26.2%，而前一年為26.6%，這是由於我們行業資產利用不足所造成的不利價格和組合的影響，抵消了我們生產力行動的增加並降低投入成本。根據報告，SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比為 17.7%，調整後為 17.3%，而前一年為 18%，這得益於我們的逐年重組和成本控制行動。根據報告，我們的營業收入為 2.12 億美元，即 7.8%。

Nonrecurring charges for the quarter were $28 million, primarily due to our previously disclosed restructuring actions, which, on a cumulative basis should generate cost reductions of over $250 million when completed. That gives us an operating income on an adjusted basis of $240 million or 8.8%, that's a 40 basis points improvement versus the 8.4% in the prior year as the benefit of our productivity initiatives of $44 million, lower input costs of $15 million and the combined benefit of increased unit volume and lower shutdown costs of approximately $18 million, offset the continued weakness in price and mix which was $70 million in the quarter. Interest expense for the quarter was $11 million, a decrease over last year due to in part to the strong cash flow and resulting lower debt level.

本季的非經常性費用為 2,800 萬美元，主要是由於我們先前揭露的重組行動，這些重組行動完成後，累積成本將減少超過 2.5 億美元。這使我們的營業收入調整後為2.4 億美元，即8.8%，與上一年的8.4% 相比，提高了40 個基點，這得益於我們4,400 萬美元的生產力計劃、1,500 萬美元的投入成本降低以及單位產量增加和停產成本降低約 1,800 萬美元的綜合效益抵消了價格和產品組合的持續疲軟（本季為 7,000 萬美元）。本季利息支出為 1,100 萬美元，較去年有所下降，部分原因是強勁的現金流和較低的債務水平。

Our non-GAAP tax rate was 19.8% versus 20.7% in the prior year. We expect the Q4 rate to be between 17% and 18%. And giving us a full year rate of approximately 20%. That gave us an earnings per share as reported of $2.55 or on an adjusted basis of $2.90, an increase of approximately 7%.

我們的非 GAAP 稅率為 19.8%，前一年為 20.7%。我們預計第四季的成長率將在 17% 至 18% 之間。並為我們帶來了大約 20% 的全年利率。據報告，我們的每股收益為 2.55 美元，調整後為 2.90 美元，成長約 7%。

Turning to the segments. Global ceramic had sales of just under $1.1 billion, that's a 3.1% decrease as reported and 2.2% on an adjusted basis. Market conditions in our industry remain difficult with consumer confidence under pressure and the deferral of larger remodeling projects. The strength in our sales, is we are leveraging our industry-leading design and finishing technology to create differentiated collections.

轉向細分市場。全球陶瓷銷售額略低於 11 億美元，報告下降 3.1%，調整後下降 2.2%。由於消費者信心面臨壓力以及大型改造項目的推遲，我們行業的市場狀況仍然很困難。我們的銷售優勢在於我們利用業界領先的設計和精加工技術來創造差異化的產品系列。

Operating income on an adjusted basis was $91 million or 8.6%, that's a 60 basis point increase versus last year as our productivity actions of $22 million offset the unfavorable price mix of $15 million and lower year-over-year net sales volume. In addition, our total year-over-year input costs were basically flat with increases in wages and benefits offsetting the deflation in material and energy.

調整後的營業收入為 9,100 萬美元，即 8.6%，比去年增加了 60 個基點，因為我們 2,200 萬美元的生產力行動抵消了 1,500 萬美元的不利價格組合和同比淨銷量下降。此外，我們的總投入成本比去年同期基本持平，薪資和福利的成長抵消了材料和能源的通貨緊縮。

In flooring North America, we had sales of just over $970 million. That's a 1.2% increase as reported due to a combination of our product innovation and sales initiatives, we saw growth in both our residential and commercial soft surface and hard surface collections led by our resilient and laminate product offerings. We are seeing strength in both our premium and value-oriented products even though repair remodeling continues to lag new construction and commercial activity.

在北美地板領域，我們的銷售額略高於 9.7 億美元。據報道，由於我們的產品創新和銷售計劃相結合，增長了 1.2%，我們看到住宅和商業軟表面和硬表面系列的增長，以我們的彈性和層壓產品系列為主導。儘管修復改造繼續落後於新建和商業活動，但我們看到了我們的優質和價值導向產品的優勢。

Our operating income on an adjusted basis was $89 million or 9.1% and that's a 100 basis point improvement versus the prior year. The margin expansion was due to productivity gains of $14 million, deflation of $12 million, and increased sales volume of $11 million, offsetting the unfavorable price/mix of $28 million as pressure in our product category continues.

調整後的營業收入為 8,900 萬美元，即 9.1%，比前一年提高了 100 個基點。利潤率的成長是由於生產力提高了 1400 萬美元、通貨緊縮了 1200 萬美元以及銷量增加了 1100 萬美元，抵消了由於我們產品類別的壓力持續存在而導致的 2800 萬美元的不利價格/組合。

And finally, Flooring Rest of the World at sales of just over $680 million, that's a 3.5% decrease as reported and 6.3% on an adjusted basis. With weak consumer sentiment and remodeling projects trailing prior year, we did not experience the normal bounce post the summer holiday period in Europe. We continue to execute promotional activities and advertising actions to boost traffic in the retail channel. But year-over-year, we did see weakening volume in our flooring and installation product categories in the period. Operating income on an adjusted basis and Flooring Rest of the World was $72 million or 10.5% and that's a 40 basis point decrease versus the prior year as the resulting price and mix weaken approximately $28 million offset the combined gains we experienced an increased productivity lower shutdown and net input cost deflation of approximately $19 million.

最後，全球其他地區的地板銷售額略高於 6.8 億美元，報告下降 3.5%，調整後下降 6.3%。由於消費者信心疲軟和改造專案落後於去年，我們沒有經歷歐洲暑假後的正常反彈。我們持續進行促銷活動和廣告活動，以增加零售通路的流量。但與去年同期相比，我們確實看到同期地板和安裝產品類別的銷售量減弱。調整後的營業收入和世界其他地區的地板為7,200 萬美元，即10.5%，與上年相比下降了40 個基點，因為由此產生的價格和組合下降了約2,800 萬美元，抵消了我們經歷的生產力提高、停工率降低的綜合收益淨投入成本減少約為 1,900 萬美元。

Corporate and eliminations was $11 million in the quarter, in line with the prior year. And the full year 2024 is expected to be approximately $48 million.

本季公司支出和沖銷金額為 1,100 萬美元，與去年同期持平。2024 年全年預計約 4,800 萬美元。

Turning to the balance sheet. Cash and cash equivalents were just over $420 million, with free cash flow for the quarter over $200 million, bringing us to a year-to-date of $440 million. Inventory was just over $2.6 billion with inventory days at $131 million. On a year-over-year basis, inventory increased approximately $90 million due to a combination of higher production volume and impact of FX, partially offset by net lower input costs. property plant equipment was just over $4.7 billion, with CapEx at $115 million and D&A at $156 million.

轉向資產負債表。現金和現金等價物略高於 4.2 億美元，本季自由現金流超過 2 億美元，使我們年初至今的現金流達到 4.4 億美元。庫存略高於 26 億美元，庫存天數為 1.31 億美元。與去年同期相比，由於產量增加和外匯影響，庫存增加了約 9,000 萬美元，但部分被淨投入成本下降所抵消。房地產工廠設備價值略高於 47 億美元，資本支出為 1.15 億美元，D&A 為 1.56 億美元。

The company plans to invest approximately $450 million in 2024 with D&A for the full year of just over $600 million. Given the current conditions, we have again tightened our annual CapEx for the balance of the year, limiting our spending to higher-return projects along with required maintenance. Overall, the balance sheet again, remains in a strong position with net debt of $1.8 billion and leverage at 1.2 times.

該公司計劃在 2024 年投資約 4.5 億美元，全年 D&A 投資略多於 6 億美元。鑑於目前的情況，我們再次收緊了今年剩餘時間的年度資本支出，將我們的支出限制在高回報項目以及所需的維護上。總體而言，資產負債表仍處於強勢地位，淨債務為 18 億美元，槓桿率為 1.2 倍。

And with that, I will turn it over to Chris to review our Q3 operational performance.

接下來，我將把它交給克里斯來審查我們第三季的營運績效。

Thank you, Jim. In global ceramic, competition in our markets remains intense as decreased industry utilization continues to impact pricing. During the quarter, the segment's margins expanded due to increased productivity by lower material and energy costs offset labor and freight inflation. In addition to our restructuring projects, we are executing many cost containment initiatives across the segment, including product reformulations, process enhancements, and improved administrative efficiencies.

謝謝你，吉姆。在全球陶瓷領域，由於產業利用率下降持續影響定價，市場競爭依然激烈。本季度，由於材料和能源成本下降抵消了勞動力和貨運通膨，生產力提高，該部門的利潤率有所擴大。除了重組專案外，我們還在整個細分市場執行許多成本控制舉措，包括產品重新配方、流程增強和提高管理效率。

To grow sales and enhance our mix, we are leveraging industry-leading printing, polishing and rectifying technology to deliver floor and wall tile collections with differentiated visuals. The US Department of Commerce expects the preliminary antidumping decision relative to ceramic tile from India to be rendered in November '24, with tariffs potentially retroactive to August '24. Other ceramic markets are at various stages of pursuing similar antidumping actions against Indian manufacturers. In the US, we increased our partnership with builders by providing a complete product offering with superior service.

為了增加銷售量並增強我們的產品組合，我們利用業界領先的印刷、拋光和矯正技術來提供具有差異化視覺效果的地磚和牆磚系列。美國商務部預計針對印度瓷磚的反傾銷初步決定將於2024年11月做出，關稅可能追溯至24年8月。其他陶瓷市場正處於針對印度製造商採取類似反傾銷行動的不同階段。在美國，我們透過提供完整的產品和優質的服務來加強與建築商的合作關係。

As the commercial sector has begun to slow, we are focusing on the education, healthcare, and hospitality channels, which were expected to be more active in 2025. Our domestically produced quartz countertops are outperforming other work services, and we will start up our new production line next year as the market strengthens. In Europe, our volumes exceeded the prior year even as market demand remains soft. Pricing pressures remained a headwind, partially offset by product mix from advanced technologies and expanded participation in the commercial channel.

隨著商業領域開始放緩，我們將重點放在教育、醫療和酒店管道，預計這些管道將在 2025 年更加活躍。我們國產的石英檯面優於其他工作服務，隨著市場的走強，我們將在明年啟動新的生產線。在歐洲，儘管市場需求依然疲軟，但我們的銷售量仍超過了去年。定價壓力仍然是一個阻力，部分被先進技術的產品組合和商業通路參與度的擴大所抵消。

In Latin America, the Mexican Central Bank lowered rates in September and is expected to make further cuts this year. In Brazil, the Central Bank has cut rates multiple times and is monitoring inflation determine its next steps. We have announced targeted price increases in Mexico and volume in Brazil has begun to strengthen. In both markets, we are implementing sales and operational improvements introducing updated collections and expanding our distribution to improve our results.

在拉丁美洲，墨西哥央行於 9 月降低了利率，預計今年將進一步降息。在巴西，央行已多次降息，並正在監測通膨情況以確定下一步措施。我們已宣布墨西哥的目標價格上漲，巴西的銷售量已開始增強。在這兩個市場，我們正在實施銷售和營運改進，推出更新的產品系列並擴大我們的分銷，以改善我們的績效。

This year, our Flooring Rest of World segment did not see its usual sales improvement in Europe after the summer holidays due to continued weakness in the economy. After six quarters of declines, European building permits have recently increased, and the job market remained strong with record employment levels. Last month, the European Central Bank reduced its key interest rate by an additional 25 basis points to 3.25% as inflation further slowed. In response to current conditions, we are reducing operational and administrative costs, simplifying [SKU] complexity and enhancing logistics operations.

今年，由於經濟持續疲軟，我們的地板其他地區部門在暑假後沒有看到歐洲通常的銷售改善。經過六個季度的下降後，歐洲建築許可最近有所增加，就業市場依然強勁，就業水準創歷史新高。上個月，隨著通膨進一步放緩，歐洲央行將關鍵利率再調降 25 個基點至 3.25%。針對當前情況，我們正在降低營運和管理成本，簡化 [SKU] 複雜性並增強物流營運。

To optimize volumes, we executed promotional activities, which pressured both our pricing and mix, partially offset by lower input costs. We are increasing consumer advertising for our premium laminate products to boost traffic for our retail customer. In slowing markets, our insulation and panels business faced increased competition as new industry capacity came online, impacting pricing.

為了優化銷量，我們開展了促銷活動，這給我們的定價和產品組合帶來了壓力，但投入成本的降低部分抵消了這種影響。我們正在增加優質層壓板產品的消費者廣告，以增加零售客戶的流量。在市場放緩的情況下，隨著新行業產能的上線，我們的隔熱材料和麵板業務面臨日益激烈的競爭，影響了定價。

In Australia and New Zealand, we improved pricing and mix in our carpet collections though volumes remain under pressure. Our operations delivered productivity gains with improved efficiencies across the business. The New Zealand Central Bank recently cut rates 50 basis points to stimulate their economy.

在澳洲和紐西蘭，我們改善了地毯系列的定價和組合，儘管銷售仍然面臨壓力。我們的營運提高了整個企業的效率，並提高了生產力。紐西蘭央行最近降息50個基點以刺激經濟。

In our flooring North America segment, we believe we're outperforming the overall market in a difficult environment with sales and margins improving over the prior year and increased volume, partially offset by lower pricing and mix. Our margins benefited from lower raw material costs, restructuring projects and productivity gains in our manufacturing, administrative and sales operations. With existing home sales at multi-decade lows residential remodeling remains under significant pressure.

在我們的北美地板業務中，我們相信，在困難的環境下，我們的表現優於整體市場，銷售額和利潤率比上一年有所改善，銷量有所增加，但部分被較低的價格和產品組合所抵銷。我們的利潤得益於原材料成本的降低、重組項目以及製造、管理和銷售業務生產力的提高。由於現房銷售處於數十年來的低點，住宅改造仍面臨巨大壓力。

We are retiring high-cost equipment and exiting underperforming product categories while investing in capital projects that have short paybacks. We continue to improve our participation in the homebuilder channel with our comprehensive product offering. We are supporting our residential product launches with marketing initiatives to connect consumers with our retail partners. While overall US home sales are down, higher income consumers are purchasing our premium products. Sales of our value-oriented carpet collections are also improving, building on the success of our leading polyester offering.

我們正在淘汰高成本設備並退出表現不佳的產品類別，同時投資回報期較短的資本項目。我們繼續透過提供全面的產品來提高我們在住宅建築商通路中的參與度。我們透過行銷活動支持我們的住宅產品發布，以將消費者與我們的零售合作夥伴聯繫起來。雖然美國整體房屋銷售下降，但收入較高的消費者正在購買我們的優質產品。在我們領先的聚酯產品取得成功的基礎上，我們以價值為導向的地毯系列的銷售也在不斷改善。

Our LVT and laminate collections delivered sales growth as consumers embraced our new introductions with enhanced performance features. We continue to deliver product innovation with a new resilient plank flooring technology that is environmentally friendly and provides greater stability and performance. Our commercial sales were led by our carpet tile collections that offer industry-leading sustainability and award-winning designs inspired by nature.

隨著消費者接受我們具有增強性能特徵的新產品，我們的 LVT 和層壓板系列實現了銷售成長。我們繼續透過新型彈性木板地板技術提供產品創新，該技術既環保，又具有更高的穩定性和性能。我們的商業銷售以方塊地毯系列為主導，這些系列提供業界領先的可持續性和受自然啟發的屢獲殊榮的設計。

Our results also benefited from increased sales of flooring accessories that coordinate with our hard surface products. We continue to pursue additional opportunities in the hospitality channel, which has shown more resilience in the current environment.

我們的業績也得益於與我們的硬表面產品相協調的地板配件銷量的增加。我們繼續在酒店通路尋求更多機會，該通路在當前環境下表現出更強的韌性。

Now I'll return the call to Jeff for closing remarks.

現在我將回電給傑夫，讓他作結束語。

Global conflicts, political uncertainty, and inflation are weighing on consumer confidence and discretionary spending around the world. Short-term macroeconomic conditions remain unpredictable, and we don't anticipate an industry improvement this year. The demand trends remain weak in each of our product categories and markets face unique economic situations. Our mix is impacted by consumers trading down and by new construction outpacing the higher-value remodeling channels. We are responding with sales and restructuring actions operational improvements and cost containment initiatives to strengthen our results.

全球衝突、政治不確定性和通貨膨脹正在影響世界各地的消費者信心和可自由支配支出。短期宏觀經濟狀況仍難以預測，我們預計今年產業不會出現改善。我們每個產品類別的需求趨勢仍然疲軟，市場面臨獨特的經濟狀況。我們的產品組合受到消費者降價購買以及新建築超過高價值改造管道的影響。我們正在透過銷售和重組行動、營運改善和成本控制措施來應對，以加強我們的業績。

We continue to pursue volume through innovative introductions, marketing programs and promotional activity to leverage our fixed cost structure. And some products we're seeing inflation on materials that will increase our costs in the period.

我們繼續透過創新的推出、行銷計劃和促銷活動來追求銷量，以利用我們的固定成本結構。我們發現某些產品的材料價格上漲，這將增加我們在此期間的成本。

As we end the year, we expect to reduce our manufacturing levels to manage our inventory, increasing our unabsorbed overhead. In the period, we anticipate the recent US hurricanes will negatively impact our sales by $25 million to $40 million, with offsetting benefit from rebuilding next year. Given these factors and the effect of seasonality, we anticipate our fourth quarter adjusted EPS to be between $1.77 and $1.87, excluding any restructuring or onetime charges. We remain confident in the fundamentals of our business and our strategy to improve our results.

到年底，我們預計會降低製造水準來管理庫存，從而增加未吸收的管理費用。在此期間，我們預計最近的美國颶風將對我們的銷售額造成 2500 萬至 4000 萬美元的負面影響，並抵消明年重建帶來的收益。考慮到這些因素以及季節性的影響，我們預計第四季度調整後每股收益將在 1.77 美元至 1.87 美元之間，不包括任何重組或一次性費用。我們對我們業務的基本面和改善業績的策略仍然充滿信心。

In 2025, we anticipate demand in all our markets improving as interest rates decline and consumer spending in the category accelerates across the world. Elevated home equity values will provide property owners the resources to renovate their residents. All of our regions require significant new home construction, and we have grown our participation in the channel.

到 2025 年，我們預計，隨著全球利率下降和該類別消費者支出的加速，所有市場的需求都會改善。房屋淨值的上升將為業主提供裝修居民的資源。我們所有的地區都需要大量的新房建設，我們已經增加了對該管道的參與。

Commercial construction and remodeling should also expand as financing becomes more affordable and investment returns increase. As our markets recover, we will leverage the extensive improvements that we've implemented to maximize our sales and margins. We'll now be glad to take your questions.

隨著融資變得更加負擔得起和投資回報增加，商業建設和改造也應該擴大。隨著市場復甦，我們將利用已實施的廣泛改進來最大限度地提高銷售額和利潤。我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Tim Wojs, Baird.

（操作員說明）Tim Wojs，Baird。

Hey, everybody. Good morning. Maybe just first question, Jeff. I mean I know the dynamics kind of going into the fourth quarter with shutdowns and things are still broadly weak. But you have kind of talked about 2025 recovering. And I guess just as you think about next year, do you need lower rates and kind of a normalization and housing turnover to see that recovery? Or do you think there's enough just pent-up demand? And kind of home value equity that can kind of get us back to a growth situation.

嘿，大家。早安.也許只是第一個問題，傑夫。我的意思是，我知道進入第四季時停工的動態，而且情況仍然普遍疲軟。但您談到了 2025 年的復甦。我想，正如您對明年的看法一樣，您是否需要降低利率以及某種程度的正常化和住房週轉率才能看到復甦？或者您認為被壓抑的需求是否足夠？而某種房屋價值資產可以讓我們回到成長狀態。

I think it's going to take a combination of both. We think the interest rates across the world are going to decline and they should improve the demand in our markets. The consumers need to be more positive about the future. And if they are, they can start doing remodeling immediately. So the interest rates are really more to change the confidence level of both businesses and individuals to make it. On the other hand, we expect lower interest rates to come and make housing more affordable in all our markets across the world, and we're anticipating to see that as we start through next year sometime.

我認為這需要兩者結合。我們認為全球利率將會下降，這應該會改善我們市場的需求。消費者需要對未來更加積極。如果是的話，他們可以立即開始進行改造。所以利率其實更多的是改變企業和個人的信心水準。另一方面，我們預計利率將會下降，並使全球所有市場的房屋價格變得更加實惠，並且我們預計明年開始時就會看到這一點。

Okay. And I guess if that doesn't happen, do you feel like you just keep slugging it out as things kind of bottom? Is that kind of the other side?

好的。我想如果這種情況沒有發生，你會不會覺得事情已經觸底了，你會繼續奮力拼搏？對方是這樣的嗎？

I really can't see a scenario where we stay where we are. I mean, the interest rates everywhere coming down, all the banks are continuing to the central banks are saying they're going to continue lowering them. They're still in restrictive territory based on historical levels that you think about. So we'll have to see how it goes.

我實在看不出我們會原地踏步。我的意思是，各地的利率都在下降，所有銀行都在繼續向央行表示他們將繼續降低利率。根據您所考慮的歷史水平，它們仍然處於限制性區域。所以我們得看看事情進展如何。

Okay. And then just my second question. Do you have any figures or numbers just around how much LVT capacity is based in North America, both your own and just the overall industry?

好的。然後是我的第二個問題。您是否有關於北美 LVT 產能（包括您自己的以及整個產業）的數據？

I don't have it now.

我現在沒有了。

Yeah.

是的。

Basically, Tim, what the latest data showed that LVT as a market is over 30% of the US market. But there is still limited manufacturing capacity in the US Most of it certainly -- it's still an import story. look on the rest of the year.

基本上，Tim，最新數據顯示，LVT 市場占美國市場的 30% 以上。但美國的製造能力仍然有限，其中大部分當然是——這仍然是一個進口故事。看看今年剩下的時間。

Okay, sounds good. Thank you, guys. Good luck on the rest of the year.

好吧，聽起來不錯。謝謝你們，夥計們。祝你今年剩下的時間一切順利。

John Lovallo, UBS.

約翰‧洛瓦洛，瑞銀集團。

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions as well. Jim, I think the prior expectation from a revenue standpoint in the fourth quarter was for global ceramic and Flooring Rest of World to be up sort of low single digits year-over-year, and I think flooring North America to be sort of flattish. Curious if those have changed. It seems like there might be a little bit of downside to that. So any thoughts on that would be helpful.

早安，夥計們。也感謝您回答我的問題。吉姆，我認為從第四季度收入的角度來看，先前的預期是全球陶瓷和世界其他地區的地板將同比增長較低的個位數，而我認為北美的地板將持平。好奇這些是否已經改變了。似乎這可能有一點缺點。因此，對此的任何想法都會有所幫助。

Certainly. John, we gave guidance from an EPS perspective. So obviously, that was an assumption people were making. As you look at Q4, as Jeff talked about, we anticipate limited industry improvement, and the demand does remain weak. The events, the terrible events that happen with the back-to-back hurricanes certainly have impacted the Southeast, and it hurts the US ceramic business and our flooring North America business.

當然。約翰，我們從 EPS 的角度提供了指導。顯然，這是人們所做的假設。正如傑夫所說，當你看看第四季時，我們預計行業改善有限，而且需求仍然疲軟。這些事件，連續颶風發生的可怕事件肯定影響了東南部，並損害了美國陶瓷業務和我們的北美地板業務。

So that weighs into our outlook for the fourth quarter. Seasonally, of course, the volume declined in Q4, and we do have sniffing and shutdowns as well. So at this point, those factors weigh into the sales and our guidance for the fourth quarter.

因此，這影響了我們對第四季的展望。當然，從季節性來看，第四季度的銷量有所下降，我們也確實遇到了嗅聞和關閉的情況。因此，在這一點上，這些因素會影響銷售和我們對第四季的指導。

Understood. And then maybe taking it one step further to the margins. I mean it appears that the lapping of the lower material and energy costs are going to turn price/mix, productivity negative here. I mean, how should we sort of think about the cadence of margins by segment as we move into the fourth quarter?

明白了。然後可能會進一步向邊緣邁進。我的意思是，材料和能源成本的降低似乎將使價格/組合、生產力為負值。我的意思是，當我們進入第四季時，我們應該如何考慮各細分市場的利潤率節奏？

Well, what I would say is first on the inflation, deflation story of this year, unlike the first three quarters where we did enjoy through the P&L, the benefits of lower material and energy costs, which offset the increased wages and benefits. We now have lapped that period of time. So in the fourth quarter, we do have inflation, which basically is driven by wages and benefits. And price mix, although it has stepped down from Q2 of from Q2's level to Q3, it still remains as a headwind with the underutilization in the industry. Certainly, the positive news is the strength of the productivity that we've had as I just reported, it was over $44 million in the quarter, and I would expect to see a similar, if not greater productivity in the fourth quarter. So all the businesses are taking the necessary actions in the quarter.

嗯，我首先要說的是今年的通膨、通貨緊縮情況，與前三個季度我們確實透過損益表享受到的材料和能源成本降低帶來的好處不同，這抵消了工資和福利的增加。現在我們已經度過了那段時光。因此，在第四季度，我們確實出現了通貨膨脹，這基本上是由工資和福利所驅動的。價格結構方面，儘管已從第二季度的水平下降到第三季度，但由於行業利用率不足，它仍然是一個阻力。當然，積極的消息是我們的生產力強勁，正如我剛剛報告的那樣，該季度的生產力超過 4400 萬美元，我預計第四季度的生產力將達到類似水平，甚至更高。因此，所有企業都在本季採取必要的行動。

Okay. Thank you, guys.

好的。謝謝你們，夥計們。

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

蘇珊·馬克拉里，高盛。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝。大家早安。

Good morning.

早安.

My first question is talking a little bit more about those company-specific efforts that you did come through in the third quarter. You mentioned productivity and the cost savings. Can you talk a bit more about how those did come together and help to offset some of the broader demand weakness? And how do you build upon those as you look to 2025 and maybe even further out from there?

我的第一個問題是多談談你們在第三季所做的針對公司的具體努力。您提到了生產力和成本節約。您能否多談談這些因素是如何結合起來並幫助抵消一些更廣泛的需求疲軟的？展望 2025 年甚至更遠的未來，您將如何在這些基礎上再接再厲？

Well, in the third quarter, we benefited from all our initiatives in sales, productivity, cost containment as well as the restructuring actions we took. Demand in the third quarter started out stronger and as we went through the period that slowed in most channels and geographies. We still have commercial outperforming residential. Pricing continue to remain under pressure given the slow market and low utilization that we saw through.

嗯，在第三季度，我們受益於我們在銷售、生產力、成本控制以及我們採取的重組行動方面的所有措施。第三季的需求開始強勁，但我們經歷了大多數通路和地區放緩的時期。我們的商業地產仍優於住宅地產。鑑於我們看到的市場緩慢和利用率低，定價繼續面臨壓力。

As we look towards '25. We think as we discussed a minute ago, that interest rates around the world will continue to decline. We believe that demand in all our markets will increase. It's impossible to predict the exact inflection point given all the variables that make up in the different markets that we're in. We think the changes in interest rates will have a positive impact on the confidence of both consumers and businesses, and that will increase our volume and help our mix, which will end up improving our sales and margins.

當我們展望 '25 時。我們認為，正如我們一分鐘前討論的那樣，全球利率將繼續下降。我們相信我們所有市場的需求都會增加。考慮到我們所處的不同市場的所有變量，不可能預測準確的拐點。我們認為利率的變化將對消費者和企業的信心產生積極影響，這將增加我們的銷售並幫助我們的產品組合，最終提高我們的銷售額和利潤率。

Next year, we also believe we'll have an improved mix, both the channel mix as well as product mix. We see volume increasing at some point, and we see the asset utilization increasing. At the same time, we're anticipating limited inflation given the environment we're in. All the activities that we've been talking about will benefit our -- from our restructuring, we'll have lower costs, and we expect to have higher productivity, and then we continue to introduce new innovative products, which we think will help us pull through.

明年，我們也相信我們的組合將得到改善，包括通路組合和產品組合。我們看到交易量在某個時候有所增加，資產利用率也在增加。同時，鑑於我們所處的環境，我們預期通膨將有限。我們一直在談論的所有活動都將使我們受益——透過我們的重組，我們將降低成本，我們期望獲得更高的生產力，然後我們繼續推出新的創新產品，我們認為這將幫助我們渡過難關。

And just to remind everybody, historically, as we exited downturn, given the compression that the industry goes through, you have several years of above industry average growth as these postponed projects are initiated, and they all leverage all our fixed costs. And with that, we anticipate our results improving as we go through '25.

只是提醒大家，從歷史上看，當我們擺脫低迷時，考慮到行業經歷的壓縮，隨著這些推遲的項目啟動，您將有幾年高於行業平均水平的增長，並且它們都利用了我們所有的固定成本。因此，我們預計隨著 25 年的到來，我們的業績將會有所改善。

Okay. That's very helpful color. And then maybe digging in a little bit more to that product mix. it sounds like you are getting some momentum as you're building into some of these faster-growing categories, exiting some of the underperforming areas and gaining share in there. Can you talk about how that is coming through and the progress and how you're thinking about that over the next several years?

好的。這是非常有用的顏色。然後也許會進一步研究該產品組合。聽起來你正在獲得一些動力，因為你正在進入一些成長較快的類別，退出一些表現不佳的領域並在那裡獲得份額。您能談談這是如何實現的、取得的進展以及您對未來幾年的看法嗎？

We continue to invest in areas that we think we're going to have the most increase in sales. We have invested in our ceramic business in certain categories where the ceramic slabs, which are a growing category. We're investing in countertop ports, which we're going to increase further and other areas that we have limitations on as we go through it over the next -- and then we expect the price and mix to turn on us because the retail consumer who buys their own products tries to buy the best thing they can afford. And so with the existing home sales down across the world, that consumer isn't spending money like they have in postponing it with inflation. So we believe we're going to have a natural increase in margins and mix as we go through. What else can I tell you?

我們繼續投資於我們認為銷售額增幅最大的領域。我們在陶瓷板的某些類別中投資了我們的陶瓷業務，這是一個不斷增長的類別。我們正在投資檯面端口，我們將進一步增加這些端口，以及我們在接下來的過程中受到限制的其他領域——然後我們預計價格和組合會對我們不利，因為零售消費者購買自己產品的人會盡力購買自己買得起的最好的東西。因此，隨著全球現有房屋銷售的下降，消費者不會像通貨膨脹那樣花錢。因此，我們相信，隨著我們的發展，我們的利潤率和產品組合將會自然增加。我還能告訴你什麼？

I don't know. That was good color, Jeff. Thank you, that's helpful. Good luck with everything.

我不知道。那顏色真好，傑夫。謝謝，這很有幫助。祝一切順利。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

馬修·博利，巴克萊銀行。

Morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. I just wanted to ask on the hurricane impact, the $25 million to $40 million. Historically or typically what do you usually see with that kind of rebuild in the year after? Kind of can you recoup all of it? And typically, what would be the kind of timing of recouping some of that? Thank you.

早安，大家。感謝您提出問題。我只是想問一下颶風造成的 2500 萬至 4000 萬美元的影響。從歷史或通常情況來看，您通常會在年後的這種重建中看到什麼？你能收回全部嗎？通常情況下，收回部分損失的時機是什麼？謝謝。

Thank you, Matt. In terms of the impacted areas, certainly, it's going to take a while for our customers and the locations that were closed after the storms to reopen and for consumers to initiate new projects or ramp up from this current situation. The damaged properties obviously have to be repaired. And remember, flooring is the last product to really be installed. So the timing of really the rebuild from our perspective would be pushed through 2025. It really depends on the pace of the recovery.

謝謝你，馬特。當然，就受影響的地區而言，我們的客戶和風暴後關閉的地點需要一段時間才能重新開放，消費者也需要一段時間才能啟動新專案或擺脫當前的情況。受損的財產顯然必須修復。請記住，地板是最後真正安裝的產品。因此，從我們的角度來看，真正重建的時間將推遲到 2025 年。這實際上取決於復甦的速度。

Okay. Thanks for that, Jim. And then secondly, the plant shutdown that you're guiding to in Q4. Is this kind of just a Q4 thing given the sort of state of demand here and maybe channel inventories, or is the expectation from what you could tell today that you may still be looking to reduce inventories in early 2025 as well? Thank you.

好的。謝謝你，吉姆。其次，您在第四季度指導的工廠關閉。考慮到這裡的需求狀況以及通路庫存，這只是第四季度的事情嗎？謝謝。

Well, as we said in my prepared remarks, inventory was slightly up in the quarter. We do expect to decrease the inventory with shutdowns in Q4. Our goal right now is that total inventory should end the year relatively from a dollar basis, relatively flat from previous year end. Now if you look at that, industry certainly is slower than expected.

嗯，正如我們在我準備好的發言中所說，本季庫存略有增加。我們確實預計第四季的停產將減少庫存。我們目前的目標是，以美元計算，今年年底的總庫存應該相對平穩，與去年年底相對持平。現在如果你看一下，工業發展肯定比預期慢。

We've talked about the seasonality of Q4 as well. The impact of the hurricanes only reduce that further in terms of demand in the quarter. So reducing the inventory is a prudent thing to do at this point, and it's best for the business to do it during that holiday shutdown time.

我們也討論了第四季的季節性。颶風的影響只會進一步減少本季的需求。因此，此時減少庫存是一件謹慎的事情，而且企業最好在假期停工期間進行。

Alright. Thanks, Jim. Thanks, everyone. Good luck.

好吧。謝謝，吉姆。謝謝大家。祝你好運。

Phil Ng, Jefferies.

菲爾·吳，杰弗里斯。

Hey, guys. Ocean freight prices have started to move higher. You called out inflation. That said, price mix is obviously still a challenging weighing on your margins in the fourth quarter. Are you seeing any ability to kind of raise price as we look out to 2025? And have you seen price increases from some of your competitors that import goods.

嘿，夥計們。海運價格已開始走高。你喊出了通貨膨脹。也就是說，價格組合顯然仍對第四季的利潤構成挑戰。展望 2025 年，您認為有可能提高價格嗎？您是否看到一些進口商品的競爭對手漲價了？

Separately, I think one of your larger competitors in (inaudible) announced some capacity closure on the feedstock side and I think another player announced some today on nylon polymer. So kind of help us think through, is this a needle mover in terms of capacity tightening up in North America? And then your ability broadly to get price to offset a more inflationary environment.

另外，我認為（聽不清楚）你們的一個較大競爭對手宣布了原料方面的一些產能關閉，我認為另一家公司今天宣布了一些尼龍聚合物方面的產能關閉。這有助於我們思考，這是否對北美產能收緊起到了推動作用？然後你有能力獲得價格來抵消更嚴重的通貨膨脹環境。

There has been some capacity taken out of the industry. There is still -- the industry is still at a huge deficit to where we were running before so that we still have excess capacity -- the ocean freight is increasing the cost of landing imported products and those imported products will have to go up to pay for the increased ocean freight at some point. Our ability to raise prices is limited given everybody is trying to keep their assets running. On the other hand, if you have significant inflation, everyone has to push it through.

該行業的一些產能已經被淘汰。與我們之前的情況相比，該行業仍然存在巨大的赤字，因此我們仍然有過剩的產能。增加海運費。鑑於每個人都在努力保持資產運轉，我們提高價格的能力是有限的。另一方面，如果通貨膨脹嚴重，每個人都必須度過難關。

Okay. And then Jeff, you expressed confidence that demand will be up across the board in all your segments. Timing this is not easy. But I guess my question is, when do you kind of expect -- how do you kind of expect a year to shape up first half, back half? And in some of the fourth quarter headwinds, whether it's curtailment, the hurricane; hopefully, that gets flushed out. Do you have enough levers to kind of grow EBITDA and EPS because you were growing EBITDA, EPS the first three quarters of this year. So I just want to get a level set of the shape of the year for 2025. And then your ability to drive earnings and EBITDA higher next year?

好的。然後傑夫，您表示有信心所有細分市場的需求都會全面上升。要把握這個時機並不容易。但我想我的問題是，你預計什麼時候──你預計今年上半年、下半年會如何？在第四季的一些逆風中，無論是削減、颶風或颶風；希望這能被沖掉。您是否有足夠的槓桿來增加 EBITDA 和 EPS，因為今年前三個季度您的 EBITDA 和 EPS 都在成長。所以我只想得到 2025 年形狀的水平集。那麼明年你有能力提高獲利和 EBITDA 嗎？

The drivers that we have are to reduce our cost structure, which we announced the other restructuring not long ago, it will take us through most of next year to get it. Jim, I believe earlier gave the dollar amount he expected to flow through in the period. The predicting of the inflection point given all the moving parts in any single economy and around the world is impossible to anticipate all the different markets are projected to have significant growth in housing and remodeling across the world in all the different markets as the capacity gets utilized, we get leverage from the fixed costs that come up we get leverage out of the mix change as higher-quality products work, and we expect to have higher margins with that now. The moment in time it occurs is anybody's guess.

我們的驅動因素是降低成本結構，我們不久前宣布了另一項重組，這將花費我們明年的大部分時間來實現。吉姆，我相信早些時候給出了他預計在此期間流入的美元金額。考慮到任何單一經濟體和世界各地的所有變化因素，對拐點的預測是不可能預測隨著產能的利用，全球所有不同市場的住房和改造預計將出現顯著增長，我們從出現的固定成本中獲得槓桿作用，隨著更高品質的產品發揮作用，我們從組合變化中獲得槓桿作用，我們預計現在可以獲得更高的利潤。任何人都可以猜測它發生的時間。

Helpful. I appreciate the color. Thank you.

有幫助。我很欣賞它的顏色。謝謝。

Laura Champine, Loop Capital.

勞拉·尚平 (Laura Champine)，Loop Capital。

Hi guys, Laura Champine. Question, a follow-up question on hurricane. I really appreciate the quantification of disruption, like $25 million to $40 million. I think you called out when we think about your ability to assist folks and repairing, should we be thinking about a benefit through next year of multiples of that? Or can you help us frame up based on prior storms of this size kind of how much of a revenue lift we should get next year?

大家好，勞拉·尚平。問題，關於颶風的後續問題。我真的很欣賞對破壞的量化，例如 2500 萬到 4000 萬美元。我認為，當我們考慮到您幫助人們和修復的能力時，您大聲喊道，我們是否應該考慮明年的倍數收益？或者您能否幫助我們根據之前這種規模的風暴來確定明年我們應該獲得多少收入提升？

We don't have a good way of estimating it. What happens first is it depends on the damage to the house. So as you know, the building. Typically, it takes a significant amount of time just to get the insurance companies to agree what to do. Then what happens is where you have limited damage of a few broken windows of water you can replace it as you go through.

我們沒有一個好的方法來估計它。首先發生的情況取決於房屋的損壞情況。正如你所知，這座建築。通常情況下，僅僅讓保險公司同意做什麼就需要花費大量的時間。然後發生的情況是，你對一些破損的水窗的損壞有限，你可以在通過時更換它。

And then if you have major damage, you have to rebuild the house, dry out everything, and it could take 9 to 12 months or more. And then if it's depending upon how much there is in the geography, there's not enough labor to do it. So it could drag out over a couple of years, depending upon how much there is and how broad it is. The impact in ours, it's just going to get distributed over the quarters. And it's going to be hard to see in any given moment.

然後，如果損壞嚴重，則必須重建房屋，將所有東西都弄乾，這可能需要 9 到 12 個月或更長時間。如果這取決於地理上的資源量，那麼就沒有足夠的勞動力來做這件事。因此，它可能會拖延幾年，這取決於有多少和有多廣泛。對我們的影響只會在幾個季度內分配。而且在任何特定時刻都很難看到。

Got it. On the European business, which seems to be kind of taking another leg down in terms of demand. Should we expect that to recover on a lagging basis relative to your other geographies? Or would that be reading too much into this Q4 softness?

知道了。就歐洲業務而言，需求似乎又下降了一步。我們是否應該期望這種復甦相對於其他地區滯後？或者說這對第四季的疲軟解讀不多？

You should really start with just kind of looking at conditions outside the US. When you look higher interest rates that really similarly impacted our category. We expect differences in the recovery -- the pace of the recovery and the timing, but it's hard to predict with any precision at this point. In addition, you have the political uncertainties in Europe that may impact the timing of the recovery. Now the good news is that the central banks in Europe at least are on their third interest rate cut and lowering those rates is an effort to hopefully stimulate more activity, which would benefit our category as well.

你真的應該從看看美國以外的情況開始。當你觀察更高的利率時，這確實對我們的類別產生了類似的影響。我們預期復甦的速度和時間會有所不同，但目前很難準確預測。此外，歐洲的政治不確定性可能會影響復甦的時間。現在的好消息是，歐洲央行至少正在進行第三次降息，降低利率是為了刺激更多的活動，這也將有利於我們的類別。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Keith Hughes, Truist.

基斯‧休斯，真理主義者。

Thank you. And the way you talk about the $100 million cost reduction plan has been around a while. It looks like you might be talking a little bit more than that. So I guess my question is, what kind of magnitude are we looking at? And how much have you already realized through the third quarter?

謝謝。您談論 1 億美元成本削減計劃的方式已經存在一段時間了。看來你說的可能不只如此。所以我想我的問題是，我們正在關注什麼樣的規模？第三季您已經實現了多少？

So in the plan that we announced -- in the second quarter, we originally announced it was about $100 million savings as each of the segments have firmed up those plans, we should get a little bit more than that.

因此，在我們宣布的計劃中，在第二季度，我們最初宣布節省了大約 1 億美元，因為每個部門都已經落實了這些計劃，我們應該會比這多一點。

Again, we'll see about $20 million to $25 million this year with the majority, probably two-thirds of it in '25. A little bit on the longer projects will carry over into '26. But so far, the projects are being initiated by each of the segments, and we're on schedule.

同樣，今年我們將看到大約 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元，其中大部分（可能是三分之二）是在 25 年。一些較長的項目將延續到 26 年。但到目前為止，各個部門正在啟動這些項目，而且我們正在按計劃進行。

Okay. that's helpful. Thank you.

好的。這很有幫助。謝謝。

Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

麥可雷豪特，摩根大通。

Hi, everyone. This is Ad Azzi on for Mike. Thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to ask maybe in Flooring Rest of World, given some of those reduction of cost and simplifying SKU, how large of a net impact are you expecting there? Or is it relatively small?

大家好。我是 Ad Azzi 為 Mike 做的節目。感謝您回答我的問題。我只是想問一下，在世界其他地區的地板領域，考慮到成本的降低和 SKU 的簡化，您預計會產生多大的淨影響？還是相對較小？

Well, in Flooring Rest of World, our sales volumes didn't pick up as we expected after the holidays. The market conditions remain challenging, and we executed additional promotional activities. Pricing and mix headwinds continue, given the weak demand, but declining inflation led to ECB to lower interest rates with additional cuts are expected.

嗯，在世界其他地區的地板，我們的銷量在假期後沒有像我們預期的那樣回升。市場狀況仍充滿挑戰，我們進行了額外的促銷活動。鑑於需求疲軟，定價和混合阻力仍在繼續，但通膨下降導致歐洲央行降低利率，預計還會進一步降息。

Got it. Thanks. And maybe in LVT and laminate it seems things are going well. If I want to see if you could expand on kind of the growth you expect to see next year and how that is going to play out going forward? Thanks.

知道了。謝謝。也許在 LVT 和層壓板方面，一切似乎進展順利。如果我想看看您是否可以擴大您期望明年看到的成長，以及未來將如何發揮作用？謝謝。

Well, I can address LVT. Our sales are under pressure and pricing has declined, but we believe we outperformed the market. Our margins have benefited from productivity and lower material costs. We're launching a new wood plank with recycled content and better performance.

好吧，我可以解決LVT問題。我們的銷售面臨壓力，定價也有所下降，但我們相信我們的表現優於市場。我們的利潤得益於生產力的提高和材料成本的降低。我們正在推出一種具有回收成分和更好性能的新型木板。

Our West Coast operation is increasing production, and our Georgia restructuring is being executed to further improve results. And in Europe, we've changed our residential LVT from flexible to rigid, we're expanding our volumes, which will leverage our fixed cost, and we're executing productivity and restructuring initiatives to improve the results.

我們的西海岸業務正在增加產量，喬治亞州的重組正在進行中，以進一步改善業績。在歐洲，我們已將住宅 LVT 從靈活改為剛性，我們正在擴大產量，這將利用我們的固定成本，我們正在執行生產力和重組計劃以改善結果。

On the laminate side in the US, our volume increased over last year. It's been more accepted by the different channels, including the new construction home business, which didn't use it in the past. We're taking share as the waterproof alternative with superior performance to LVT. In the period, we had some cost benefit that were offset by price and mix, and we continue to start up new production to satisfy increasing demand.

在美國的層壓板方面，我們的銷量比去年有所增加。它已經被不同的管道所接受，包括過去不使用它的新建住宅業務。我們將 Share 作為防水替代品，其性能優於 LVT。在此期間，我們獲得了一些成本效益，但這些效益被價格和產品組合所抵消，並且我們繼續啟動新的生產以滿足不斷增長的需求。

Got it. Thank you. I appreciate the color. Thank you, gentlemen and good luck.

知道了。謝謝。我很欣賞它的顏色。謝謝你們，先生們，祝你們好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Adam Baumgarten, Zelman.

亞當·鮑姆加滕，澤爾曼。

Hey, good morning, guys. Just curious if you saw any benefit to shipments in September for maybe some customer inventory stocking ahead of the port strike, which obviously in hindsight, was resolved. But in September, did you see any bump in shipments?

嘿，早上好，夥計們。只是好奇您是否認為 9 月的發貨有任何好處，因為也許在港口罷工之前有一些客戶庫存庫存，事後看來，這顯然已經解決。但在 9 月份，您看到出貨量有任何成長嗎？

It's hard to measure what's going where. We believe that customers took in some more in anticipation of potential problems at the strike, but it's hard to quantify anything.

很難衡量什麼發生在哪裡。我們相信，顧客因預期罷工可能出現問題而增加了一些，但很難量化任何事情。

Okay. Got it. And then just on commercial, you talked about demand slowing. Any specific verticals you'd call out as being weaker than they had been maybe earlier in the year?

好的。知道了。然後就商業而言，您談到了需求放緩。您認為有哪些特定垂直產業比今年稍早更弱？

Well, from a channel perspective, as we said on the flip side, hospitality, government and education are actually the ones outperforming, and it's where we're really focusing our attention on. The good news on commercial as well is that its pricing is more resilient given the more differentiation, which helps from a margin perspective. But commercial does take longer to respond to economic changes. So it has a longer tail as you go down. And then the flip side, as you recover, it normally takes longer to start back up.

嗯，從通路的角度來看，正如我們另一方面所說，酒店、政府和教育實際上表現出色，這也是我們真正關注的領域。商業方面的好消息是，鑑於差異化程度更大，其定價更具彈性，這從利潤角度來看是有幫助的。但商業確實需要更長的時間來應對經濟變化。所以當你下降時它的尾巴會更長。另一方面，當您恢復時，通常需要更長的時間才能重新啟動。

Okay. Thanks a lot.

好的。多謝。

Eric Bosshard, Cleveland Research.

艾瑞克‧博斯哈德，克里夫蘭研究中心。

A follow-up and then a question, if I could. On the commercial conversation, Jim, your comment that I think it's still growing, but entering a period where it's probably going to contract. Is this a pressure point for mix for the business and in '25. I know there's some optimism about better price mix. Is slowing commercial and offset to that and to what magnitude? How should we think about that?

如果可以的話，先進行跟進，然後再提出一個問題。關於商業對話，吉姆，你的評論是，我認為它仍在增長，但進入了一個可能會收縮的時期。這是業務組合和 25 年的壓力點嗎？我知道人們對更好的價格組合持樂觀態度。商業放緩是否會抵消這項影響，幅度有多大？我們該如何思考這個問題？

Commercial is generally a higher-margin product the residential pieces. So -- and we are anticipating that it slows. If you look at the architectural index, it's been negative for a significant amount of time. And the question is, is it going to come back in time, so we don't have a significant dip in the commercial channel. But in our plans, we are expecting a slowdown.

商業建築通常是比住宅建築利潤更高的產品。所以——我們預計它會放緩。如果您查看架構指數，您會發現它在很長一段時間內一直為負值。問題是，它是否會及時恢復，這樣我們的商業管道就不會大幅下滑。但在我們的計劃中，我們預計增速會放緩。

And the good news, Eric, is taking that into account is the commercial across our whole business. is roughly 25%. Obviously, the majority and the key spot is the remodeling. And then probably half of our business. So as Jeff said earlier, when you get that inflection on remodeling, you can uptick in mix and volume.

艾瑞克，好消息是我們整個業務的廣告都考慮到了這一點。大約是25%。顯然，改造是重頭戲和重點。然後可能是我們一半的業務。因此，正如傑夫之前所說，當你在改造上有所改變時，你可以增加混合和數量。

So we get the benefit from the contribution of volume, the contribution on higher mix and also the more steady production levels and asset utilization. So as you look at '25 that is really what we're focused on. And normally, in these cycles is the first thing that comes back out is the remodeling as consumer confidence is really heightened.

因此，我們從產量的貢獻、更高的組合的貢獻以及更穩定的生產水準和資產利用率中受益。因此，當你看到 25 年來，這確實是我們關注的焦點。通常，在這些週期中，隨著消費者信心的真正增強，首先出現的是重塑。

It should be significant pent-up demand. I mean, we're at the cyclical bottom, Existing home sales are at the lowest point since 1995 to remind everybody, flooring tends to have a higher correlation to home sales because people tend to remodel more either right before they sell it to get more or right after they move into it as they go through. So we think there's a huge recovery coming that the question is when.

這應該是巨大的被壓抑的需求。我的意思是，我們正處於週期性底部，現有房屋銷售處於1995 年以來的最低點，提醒大家，地板往往與房屋銷售具有更高的相關性，因為人們傾向於在出售之前進行更多改造以獲得更多或在他們經歷時進入其中之後。因此，我們認為巨大的復甦即將到來，問題是什麼時候。

Okay. That's helpful. And then secondly, I just wanted to clarify as well, Jeff, you commented earlier about expecting demand to improve in '25. And I think most companies, including Mohawk expected demand to improve in the second half of '24, and that obviously hasn't taken place. And so like is your comment like demand improves in -- is there something you're seeing in the business that gives you conviction on that? Or is this a -- like eventually demand is going to improve. I just want to understand the point you're trying to make.

好的。這很有幫助。其次，我也想澄清一下，Jeff，您之前評論過預計 25 年需求會有所改善。我認為包括莫霍克在內的大多數公司都預計需求將在 24 年下半年有所改善，但這顯然沒有發生。就像您評論的那樣，需求有所改善——您在行業中看到的一些東西是否讓您對此深信不疑？或者說，最終需求將會改善。我只是想了解你想表達的觀點。

Listen, I've been through a lot of these cycles in my career. And I haven't seen one when interest rates fell dramatically that the housing industry didn't pick up from the pent-up demand that would test people could afford to buy them. And I would be highly surprised if it didn't occur this time as well.

聽著，我在職業生涯中經歷過很多這樣的周期。我還沒見過，當利率大幅下降時，房地產業沒有從被壓抑的需求中恢復過來，這將考驗人們的購買能力。如果這次沒有發生的話我會感到非常驚訝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI.

史蒂芬金，Evercore ISI。

Yeah. Thanks very much, guys. I wanted to maybe just start off with a couple of housekeeping items. First, did you repurchase any shares in the quarter? And Jim, can you hear with us what the benefit of volume was to sales in 3Q by segment?

是的。非常感謝，夥計們。我想也許從一些家用品開始。首先，您在本季回購了任何股票嗎？吉姆，您能和我們一起聽聽銷售對第三季按細分市場的銷售帶來的好處嗎？

No, we did not repurchase shares in the quarter. We'll continue to be opportunistic in terms of the buyback of stock. Certainly, on the positive side is we have -- continue to have strong free cash flow and liquidity provides us options, including internal investments acquisitions and stock repurchase. And then what was your second question, Stephen?

不，我們本季沒有回購股票。我們將繼續在股票回購方面採取機會主義態度。當然，積極的一面是我們繼續擁有強勁的自由現金流和流動性為我們提供了選擇，包括內部投資收購和股票回購。那你的第二個問題是什麼，史蒂芬？

The benefit of volume to sales across the segments.

各細分市場銷售的優勢。

In terms of volume, really across segments on sales, you had anywhere between $15 million to $20 million in ceramic and Flooring Rest of the world and probably double that in Flooring North America, if you're speaking of volume.

就銷售而言，實際上在各個細分市場的銷售量方面，世界其他地區的陶瓷和地板產品的銷售額在1,500 萬美元至2,000 萬美元之間，如果就銷量而言，北美的地板產品可能是這數字的兩倍。

Yeah. That's -- yeah, okay, great. That's helpful. So I wanted to touch on this benefit the volume. The pickup in volume in flooring North America a little bit more because I think that's probably one of the most interesting areas that investors are focusing on.

是的。那是——是的，好的，太好了。這很有幫助。所以我想談談這個卷的好處。北美地板成交量的回升有所增加，因為我認為這可能是投資者關注的最有趣的領域之一。

Because this is -- I mean, obviously, the European environment is a headwind, but it looks like you've sort of you're really kind of bottoming, I guess, I would say, in flooring North America. You talked about LVT. You feel like you're gaining share to laminate you're gaining share.

因為這——我的意思是，顯然，歐洲環境是一個逆風，但看起來你確實已經觸底了，我想，我會說，在北美。你談到了LVT。你感覺你正在獲得份額，層壓你正在獲得份額。

Obviously, I know that laminate has been driven by a lot of innovation. LVT, I guess it's off a kind of a lower base as well. But can you talk a little bit more about your confidence that you're gaining share in flooring North America? Is it limited to those two categories? Are you seeing signs of something broader in flooring North America.

顯然，我知道層壓板是由大量創新推動的。LVT，我想它的基礎也較低。但您能否多談談您對自己在北美地板市場份額不斷增加的信心？僅限於這兩個類別嗎？您是否看到北美地板領域出現更廣泛的跡象？

I'm specifically talking about you relative to the industry. And is there anything you're doing that is particularly worth calling out either on the distribution side or the merchandising that's different from what you have been doing over the last, call it, year or two.

我專門談的是與產業相關的你。您正在做的事情是否特別值得指出，無論是在分銷方面還是在銷售方面，都與您過去所做的事情有所不同，稱之為一年或兩年。

We're seeing improvement in most of the different product categories, not just in those two. It's come from more aggressive approach to try to pick up volume to keep the plants running. On the other side, we're giving up some price and margin to do it. So they're offsetting each other a little bit, but we think we're gaining share in market.

我們看到大多數不同產品類別的改進，而不僅僅是這兩個。它來自更積極的方法，試圖增加產量以保持工廠運作。另一方面，我們為此放棄了一些價格和利潤。因此，它們相互抵消了一點，但我們認為我們正在獲得市場份額。

Really, when you look at it, we're very proud of the product features that we continue to bring to the market with LVT, for example, introducing a recycled polymer core, which is PVC-free, laminate, next-generation of aesthetics in those products. And along with that, in ceramic, looking at increasing textures, using 3D surfaces, the enhanced printing technologies are amazing. When you look at the new projects that are coming out, both in ceramic and on the countertop side as well. And in carpet, looking at more super premium collection in terms of same resistant softness and the ability really to help the consumer.

真的，當你看到它時，我們對我們繼續透過 LVT 推向市場的產品功能感到非常自豪，例如，引入再生聚合物芯，不含 PVC、層壓板、下一代美學在那些產品中。除此之外，在陶瓷中，使用 3D 表面來增加紋理，增強的列印技術令人驚嘆。當你看到即將推出的新項目時，無論是陶瓷還是檯面方面。在地毯方面，我們正在尋找更多超優質系列，以具有相同的耐用柔軟性和真正幫助消費者的能力。

Jim, you just mentioned there, something that caught my ear, which was you said in ceramic, you talked about the visualization technology which we feel is a competitive advantage. I recall that this was definitely something that more than several years back was a real moat around your ceramic business, your visualization technology. It feels like we went through a period where that became a little bit more commoditized. is what you're describing here with the 3D visualization technology, something like the advantage that you had back then?

吉姆，你剛才提到了一些引起我注意的事情，你在陶瓷中說的，你談到了視覺化技術，我們認為這是一種競爭優勢。我記得這絕對是幾年前圍繞陶瓷業務、視覺化技術的真正護城河。感覺我們經歷了一個變得更商品化的時期。就是你在這裡描述的3D視覺化技術，類似你當時的優勢？

Absolutely. I think the technology that we're using across the ceramic business, led by our business in Italy is making really great strides and that's also being helping out the porcelain slabs business, the innovation that's going into that porcelain slabs is industry leading. So I feel pretty good about it. And also, the ability to take that technology and push it through all of our divisions across the globe is an advantage for us.

絕對地。我認為我們在陶瓷業務中使用的技術，以我們在義大利的業務為主導，正在取得真正的長足進步，這也正在幫助陶瓷板業務，陶瓷板的創新處於行業領先。所以我對此感覺很好。此外，能夠採用該技術並將其推廣到我們全球所有部門，這對我們來說是一個優勢。

Thank you. That's all my question.

謝謝。這就是我的全部問題。

Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

特雷弗·阿林森，沃爾夫研究中心。

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. First, the presidential election is less than two weeks away, and clearly elevated tariff rates have been a big topic depending on the outcome of that election. Should we see significantly higher rates on imported LVT. Do you have a sense for how large of a tailwind that could be for you, not only from your domestic LVT production, but also your premium laminate. And then you guys have also brought on the laminate capacity recently. Can you remind us the size of that capacity add and what the current utilization of it is.

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。首先，距離總統選舉還有不到兩週的時間，關稅稅率的大幅提高一直是一個大話題，取決於選舉的結果。我們是否應該看到進口 LVT 的稅率顯著提高？您是否知道這對您來說有多大的推動力，不僅來自您的國內 LVT 生產，還來自您的優質層壓板。你們最近也增加了層壓板產能。您能否提醒我們新增容量的大小以及目前的使用率是多少？

Higher tariffs would increase the prices of all. If it's broad-based, it would increase the price of imported products. The amount of it would have a dramatic impact depending on if it's large or small, to change the different marketplaces, we'll have to see what happens in the future. We have changed the technology inside of our plant in Georgia, and we are most of the way through starting up the plant in Mexico next to the California border, and both are running, and we're continuing to improve the productivity and production in both.

更高的關稅將提高所有產品的價格。如果基礎廣泛，就會提高進口產品的價格。它的數量會產生巨大的影響，這取決於它的大小，為了改變不同的市場，我們必須看看未來會發生什麼。我們已經改變了喬治亞州工廠內部的技術，我們在加州邊境附近的墨西哥工廠已經啟動了大部分時間，並且兩個工廠都在運行，我們正在繼續提高兩個工廠的生產力和產量。

Okay. Got you. That's helpful. And then can you talk about the M&A environment and the M&A process, given lower utilization rates right now? Are there opportunities to acquire weaker players and consolidate the market? And then maybe how does -- opportunities compare inside and outside of the US? Thanks.

好的。明白你了。這很有幫助。那麼考慮到目前利用率較低，您能談談併購環境和併購流程嗎？是否有機會收購實力較弱的企業並鞏固市場？那麼，美國國內外的機會比較如何？謝謝。

When the industry is at a low point, earnings are low, people typically don't want to sell their businesses and want to wait until the business turns around. So at the moment, there are limited transactions given (technical difficulty). We expect over the next 12, 18 months to see a significant change as the industry improves.

當產業處於低潮、獲利較低時，人們通常不想出售自己的企業，而是想等到企業好轉。所以目前交易量有限（技術難度）。我們預計在未來 12、18 個月內，隨著產業的改善，將會出現重大變化。

No, it makes sense. Thank a lot and good luck in the quarter.

不，這是有道理的。非常感謝，祝本季好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sam Reid, Wells Fargo.

薩姆·里德，富國銀行。

Thanks so much. I wanted to circle back on the hurricane impact, kind of a two-part question. So first, could you just walk us through the math you used to get to the $25 million to $40 million estimate. It's very precise. So I just want to understand that. And then looking back in time, I don't think you've called out hurricane impact in past even after some of the activity we might have seen in 2022, which was arguably more damaging. So I just want to understand what's different about this hurricane cycle versus prior cycles?

非常感謝。我想回顧一下颶風的影響，這是一個由兩個部分組成的問題。首先，您能否向我們介紹您用於估算 2500 萬至 4000 萬美元的數學過程。這是非常精確的。所以我只是想了解這一點。然後回顧過去，我認為即使在我們可能在 2022 年看到的一些活動之後，我認為您過去也沒有指出颶風的影響，這些活動可以說更具破壞性。所以我只是想了解這個颶風週期與之前的週期有什麼不同？

First of all, the number is anything but precise. And we took the regions that were impacted. We've been following the sales since they occurred. And as you would suspect, when it first occurred, everything went to zero is it. And then we've been tracking how they've been coming back. And based on that, we made an estimate they could come back faster or slower than the estimate as we go through. So what was the other part of the question?

首先，這個數字並不精確。我們選取了受影響的區域。自從銷售發生以來，我們一直在追蹤銷售情況。正如你所懷疑的，當它第一次發生時，一切都歸零了。然後我們一直在追蹤他們回來的情況。基於此，我們估計他們回來的速度可能會比我們估計的更快或更慢。那麼問題的另一部分是什麼呢？

Just in terms of --

僅就而言--

Comparing the other hurricanes. I mean, the devastation and you really need to step back and ensure we recognize and share our sympathies with the families and the businesses that have been impacted with this. It's kind of unprecedented to have back-to-back hurricanes in the span of three weeks, plus it's a little bit unprecedented for it to go the direction that went where it really went into not only Georgia and South Carolina, but into North Carolina.

與其他颶風進行比較。我的意思是，這場災難確實需要退後一步，確保我們認識到受此影響的家庭和企業並向其表示同情。在三週內連續遭遇颶風，這有點史無前例，而且它的發展方向不僅進入了佐治亞州和南卡羅來納州，還進入了北卡羅來納州，這也是史無前例的。

So I think the difference, Florida, obviously, was hit twice as well. So that whole Southeast region was more impacted, certainly this time around than in past cycles. And it represents a meaningful piece of both our flooring North America and our US ceramic business.

所以我認為不同的是，佛羅裡達州顯然也受到了兩次打擊。因此，整個東南地區受到的影響更大，這次肯定比過去的周期受到更大的影響。它代表了我們北美地板和美國陶瓷業務的重要組成部分。

No, that's really helpful. I think both. And then I wanted to follow up on M&A question. I don't want to read too much into you not repurchasing shares in the third quarter, but would one interpretation of that fee that you're potentially saving up firepower for M&A as the category potentially recovers? Just thinking about the M&A from that angle.

不，這真的很有幫助。我認為兩者都有。然後我想跟進併購問題。我不想過度解讀您在第三季不回購股票的情況，但這筆費用的一種解釋是，隨著該類別的潛在復甦，您可能會為併購節省火力？只是從這個角度來思考併購。

I can just answer the question that where we talked about M&A before, there are limited options at this point. we assume that there's going to be more coming, but you can't make bets on things that aren't here.

我只能回答這樣一個問題：我們之前談到併購，目前的選擇有限。我們假設將會有更多的事情發生，但你不能對不存在的事情下注。

No, it makes total sense. Thanks so much.

不，這完全有道理。非常感謝。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Jeff Lorberbaum for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將電話轉回傑夫·洛伯鮑姆 (Jeff Lorberbaum)，讓其結束語。

We appreciate you taking time and joining us. We're well positioned for the recovery that we believe is going to start soon, and the industry should see the impact of it next year. We appreciate you taking the time with us and have a nice weekend.

我們感謝您抽空加入我們。我們已經為復甦做好了準備，我們相信復甦很快就會開始，整個產業明年應該會看到復甦的影響。感謝您抽出寶貴的時間與我們在一起，並祝您週末愉快。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演示，您現在可以斷開連接了。