Manulife Financial Corp (MFC) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please be advised that this conference call is being recorded.

請注意，此電話會議正在錄製中。

Good morning, and welcome to the Manulife Financial Fourth Quarter 2022 Financial Results Call. Your host for today will be Mr. Hung Ko. Please go ahead, Mr. Ko.

早上好，歡迎來到宏利金融 2022 年第四季度財務業績電話會議。今天的主持人是 Hung Ko 先生。請繼續，Ko 先生。

Thank you. Welcome to Manulife's earnings conference call to discuss our fourth quarter and year-end 2022 financial and operating results. Our earnings materials, including the webcast live for today's call, are available on the Investor Relations section of our website at manulife.com.

謝謝。歡迎參加宏利的收益電話會議，討論我們 2022 年第四季度和年底的財務和經營業績。我們的收益資料，包括今天電話會議的網絡直播，可在我們網站 manulife.com 的投資者關係部分獲取。

Turning to Slide 4. We will begin today's presentation with an overview of our progress in 2022 and an outlook for 2023 by Rory Gori, our President and Chief Executive Officer. Following Roy's remarks, Phil Witherington, our Chief Financial Officer, will discuss the company's financial and operating results and provide an update on IFRS 17. After the prepared remarks, we will move to the live Q&A portion of the call. We ask each participant to adhere to a limit of 2 questions, including follow-up questions. If you have additional questions, please requeue and we will do our best to respond to everyone.

轉到幻燈片 4。我們將在今天的演講開始時概述我們在 2022 年取得的進展，並由我們的總裁兼首席執行官羅里·戈里 (Rory Gori) 展望 2023 年。 Roy 發表講話後，我們的首席財務官 Phil Witherington 將討論公司的財務和經營業績，並提供有關 IFRS 17 的最新信息。在準備好的講話之後，我們將進入電話會議的現場問答部分。我們要求每位參與者最多回答 2 個問題，包括後續問題。如果您還有其他問題，請重新排隊，我們會盡力回復大家。

Before we start, please refer to Slide 2 for a caution on forward-looking statements and Slide 45, for a note on the non-GAAP and other financial measures used in this presentation. Note that certain material factors or assumptions are applied in making forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially from what is stated. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Roy Gori, our President and Chief Executive Officer. Roy?

在我們開始之前，請參閱幻燈片 2 以了解前瞻性陳述的注意事項和幻燈片 45，以了解有關本演示文稿中使用的非 GAAP 和其他財務指標的說明。請注意，在做出前瞻性陳述時應用了某些重大因素或假設，實際結果可能與陳述的內容存在重大差異。有了這個，我想把電話轉給我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Roy Gori。羅伊？

Thanks, Hung, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Yesterday, we announced our fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results. We've made significant progress against our strategic priorities and are pleased to have delivered strong results, which are a testament to the resilience and strength of our diverse global franchise. We're especially pleased with these results against the backdrop of the year that was challenging for businesses broadly with multiple headwinds impacting our industry as well as ongoing market volatility.

謝謝 Hung，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。昨天，我們公佈了 2022 年第四季度和全年的財務業績。我們在戰略重點方面取得了重大進展，並很高興取得了強勁的成果，這證明了我們多元化的全球特許經營的韌性和實力。在這一年的背景下，我們對這些結果感到特別滿意，這一年對企業造成了廣泛的挑戰，影響我們行業的多重逆風以及持續的市場波動。

On our financial results, we're proud of 2 records we achieved in 2022, a record net income of $7.3 billion and the highest ever remittances of $6.9 billion. Meanwhile, we've also driven robust new business value growth in both of our North American segments in 2022, with NBV growth in the U.S. and Canada of 25% and 18%, respectively. This strong performance demonstrates the power of our diversified franchise, given the impacts of COVID-19 restrictions in Asia.

在我們的財務業績方面，我們為 2022 年取得的兩項記錄感到自豪，即創紀錄的 73 億美元淨收入和有史以來最高的匯款額 69 億美元。與此同時，到 2022 年，我們還推動了北美兩個細分市場的新業務價值強勁增長，美國和加拿大的新業務價值分別增長了 25% 和 18%。考慮到亞洲 COVID-19 限制的影響，這一強勁表現證明了我們多元化特許經營的力量。

We also took meaningful actions to significantly reduce the risk profile of our business. We reinsured more than 80% of our legacy U.S. variable annuity block through 2 transactions that released $2.5 billion of capital and further reduced our go-forward risk profile. Core earnings from the LTC and VA blocks represents only 18% of total company core earnings in 2022, a material reduction from 25% just 2 years ago, and we are on track to deliver on our 2025 business mix targets.

我們還採取了有意義的行動來顯著降低我們業務的風險狀況。我們通過 2 筆交易釋放了 25 億美元的資本，進一步降低了我們的前瞻性風險狀況，為超過 80% 的遺留美國可變年金塊提供再保險。 LTC 和 VA 板塊的核心收益僅佔 2022 年公司核心收益總額的 18%，比 2 年前的 25% 大幅下降，我們有望實現 2025 年的業務組合目標。

And our sensitivity to market movements is also greatly reduced since 2009. At the end of 2022, our sensitivity to interest rate movements was approximately 1/10 of that in 2009, and our sensitivity to equity markets has more than halved during the same period. We're also growing our scale and market share globally. In Asia, we are not only at scale but we were also the fastest-growing life insurer among the top 3 pan-Asian players between 2017 and 2021.

而我們對市場走勢的敏感度也從2009年開始大幅降低。到2022年年底，我們對利率變動的敏感度約為2009年的1/10，而同期我們對股市的敏感度下降了一半以上。我們還在全球範圍內擴大規模和市場份額。在亞洲，我們不僅規模龐大，而且還是 2017 年至 2021 年汎亞三大保險公司中增長最快的人壽保險公司。

Our Global WAM business recorded $3.3 billion of net inflows in 2022 against the industry backdrop of net outflows in North America. This performance extended our remarkable track record of delivering positive net flows in 12 of the past 13 years. In Canada, we grew our net income, core earnings and NBV at double-digit growth rates in 2022. We continue to distribute significant cash returns to our shareholders. Between 2017 and 2022, we grew our common share dividend by 10% per year on average, and I'm pleased to share that our Board approved an increase of 11% starting in March of 2023.

在北美淨流出的行業背景下，我們的全球 WAM 業務在 2022 年錄得 33 億美元的淨流入。這一業績延續了我們在過去 13 年中的 12 年實現正淨流量的卓越記錄。在加拿大，我們的淨收入、核心收益和新業務價值在 2022 年以兩位數的速度增長。我們繼續向股東分配可觀的現金回報。從 2017 年到 2022 年，我們的普通股股息平均每年增長 10%，我很高興與大家分享，我們的董事會批准從 2023 年 3 月開始增加 11%。

In addition to sustained dividend increases, in 2022, we enhanced shareholder returns through $1.9 billion of share buybacks, which represents 4.1% of outstanding common shares. We're also strategically deploying capital to invest for the future. In 2022, we acquired full ownership of Manulife TEDA, making us the first foreign company to be given approval to acquire an existing asset management JV in China. And in Vietnam, we commenced offering insurance solutions under our 16-year exclusive partnership with VietinBank, one of the largest banks in Vietnam.

除了持續增加股息外，我們在 2022 年還通過 19 億美元的股票回購（佔已發行普通股的 4.1%）提高了股東回報。我們還在戰略性地部署資本以投資未來。 2022年，我們全資收購泰達宏利，成為第一家獲准在中國收購現有資產管理合資企業的外資公司。在越南，我們與越南最大的銀行之一 VietinBank 建立了長達 16 年的獨家合作夥伴關係，開始提供保險解決方案。

Turning to Slide 7. The achievements that I've mentioned earlier was supported by our strong digital and ESG leadership as well as our winning team. We've made notable progress on our digital customer-centric initiatives, as evidenced by the 15 percentage point increase in our global straight-through processing metric compared with the 2018 baseline, with improvements across all segments. Our 2022 NPS marked a significant 19-point improvement from the 2017 baseline. We also led or were on par with the leading peers in 11 of the 16 business lines where we benchmark.

轉到幻燈片 7。我之前提到的成就得到了我們強大的數字和 ESG 領導以及我們獲勝團隊的支持。我們在以客戶為中心的數字計劃方面取得了顯著進展，與 2018 年基線相比，我們的全球直通式處理指標增長了 15 個百分點，所有細分市場均有所改善。我們的 2022 年 NPS 比 2017 年基線顯著提高了 19 個百分點。在我們進行基準測試的 16 條業務線中，有 11 條我們也領先或與領先同行持平。

We have invested $1 billion since 2018 to enhance our digital capabilities to make decisions easier and lives better for our customers, while at the same time, driving significant efficiency improvements in our operations. As a leader in ESG, we're also achieving strong results and serving our customers and other stakeholders in a socially responsible and sustainable way.

自 2018 年以來，我們已投資 10 億美元來增強我們的數字能力，讓我們的客戶更輕鬆地做出決策並改善生活，同時顯著提高我們的運營效率。作為 ESG 領域的領導者，我們也取得了不錯的成績，並以對社會負責和可持續的方式為我們的客戶和其他利益相關者提供服務。

In 2022, we shared our impact agenda, an articulation of our long-standing commitment to empowering health and well-being, driving inclusive economic opportunities and accelerating a sustainable future. While we are already Net Zero in our Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions, we are committed to further reducing our absolute emissions by 35% by 2035 and to achieving Net Zero Scope 3 finance submissions in our general account by 2050.

2022 年，我們分享了我們的影響力議程，闡明了我們對增強健康和福祉、推動包容性經濟機會和加速可持續未來的長期承諾。雖然我們的範圍 1 和範圍 2 溫室氣體排放量已經達到淨零，但我們承諾到 2035 年將絕對排放量進一步減少 35%，並到 2050 年在我們的一般賬戶中實現範圍 3 財務提交的淨零。

In recognition of our continued and strengthening commitment to sustainability performance, in 2022, we were once again named to the S&P Dow Jones Sustainability Index, 1 of only 7 insurers across North America to be included. And within the top 10% of our industry peers globally. Our high-performing team in winning culture have been key to our success. We have achieved a top quartile employee engagement ranking annually since 2020.

為表彰我們對可持續發展績效的持續和加強承諾，我們在 2022 年再次入選標準普爾道瓊斯可持續發展指數，是北美僅有的 7 家保險公司之一。在全球同行中排名前 10%。我們在致勝文化方面表現出色的團隊是我們成功的關鍵。自 2020 年以來，我們每年都在員工敬業度排名中名列前茅。

And in 2022, we ranked in the top 6% amongst global financial and insurance companies. In addition, we've been consistently recognized as an employer of choice including as 1 of the World's Best Employers by Forbes for the third consecutive year. The Canadian insurance industry will adopt IFRS 17 in 2023. While this is a significant endeavor, we are fully prepared for a successful implementation and are looking forward to the improved transparency and stability in our financial results that the new accounting standards will bring.

2022年，我們在全球金融和保險公司中排名前6%。此外，我們一直被公認為首選雇主，包括連續第三年被福布斯評為全球最佳雇主之一。加拿大保險業將於 2023 年採用 IFRS 17。雖然這是一項重大努力，但我們已為成功實施做好充分準備，並期待新會計準則將提高我們財務業績的透明度和穩定性。

Throughout 2022, we've been proactive in providing insights into the expected impacts of IFRS 17, both on transition and on our medium-term targets. Let me highlight a few points. First, IFRS 17 does not impact the fundamental economics of our business. Second, we expect our core earnings, book value and LICAT to be more stable under IFRS 17. Third, the contractual service margin, or CSM for short, is a key value metric under IFRS 17. A growing CSM balance will drive future earnings growth. And we have announced a target of growing our CSM balance by 8% to 10% per year.

在整個 2022 年，我們一直在積極提供有關 IFRS 17 對過渡和我們的中期目標的預期影響的見解。讓我強調幾點。首先，IFRS 17 不會影響我們業務的基本經濟狀況。其次，我們預計我們的核心收益、賬面價值和 LICAT 在 IFRS 17 下將更加穩定。第三，合同服務邊際（簡稱 CSM）是 IFRS 17 下的關鍵價值指標。CSM 餘額的增長將推動未來收益增長.我們還宣布了每年將 CSM 餘額增長 8% 至 10% 的目標。

Turning to Slide 8. Looking ahead, while we continue to navigate macroeconomic uncertainties in the short term, we see both challenges and opportunities in 2023 and beyond. Some of the notable headwinds and tailwinds are: First, we may see volatility in equity markets and interest rates continuing in 2023. But higher rates are clearly beneficial to our insurance businesses as we've seen in our 2022 results; second, while we may see short-term disruption related to the transition from COVID Zero policies in Asia, we expect business momentum to strengthen as pandemic restrictions normalize; third, while in North America, we may see GDP growth slowing down, many Asian countries are forecast to deliver economic growth of 5% or higher in 2023, which is a benefit to our business, given our presence at scale in the most attractive growth markets across the region.

轉到幻燈片 8。展望未來，雖然我們在短期內繼續應對宏觀經濟的不確定性，但我們看到了 2023 年及以後的挑戰和機遇。一些顯著的逆風和順風是：首先，我們可能會看到股票市場和利率在 2023 年繼續波動。但正如我們在 2022 年的業績中看到的那樣，更高的利率顯然對我們的保險業務有利；其次，雖然我們可能會看到與亞洲從 COVID 零政策過渡相關的短期中斷，但我們預計隨著大流行限制措施的正常化，業務勢頭將會增強；第三，雖然在北美，我們可能會看到 GDP 增長放緩，但預計許多亞洲國家將在 2023 年實現 5% 或更高的經濟增長，這對我們的業務有利，因為我們在最具吸引力的增長中規模龐大整個地區的市場。

Notwithstanding the pandemic and recent macro headwinds, the 3 megatrends that underpin our strategy remain unchanged. Our business is uniquely positioned to continue to capitalize on these megatrends. As a top 3 Pan-Asian insurer, we see significant growth opportunities emerging in Asia, including in Hong Kong, where we are a leading insurer and well positioned to benefit from the significant MCV and GBA opportunities, following the reopening of the border between Mainland China and Hong Kong.

儘管大流行和最近的宏觀逆風，支撐我們戰略的 3 大趨勢保持不變。我們的業務具有獨特的優勢，可以繼續利用這些大趨勢。作為汎亞地區排名前三的保險公司，我們看到亞洲（包括香港）出現了重大的增長機會，我們是香港領先的保險公司，並且在大陸與大陸之間的邊界重新開放後處於有利地位，可以從重要的 MCV 和 GBA 機會中受益中國和香港。

Our global WAM business is not only a leading global retirement solutions provider with approximately 9 million customers but we are also a top 10 global retail multi-manager. In our home market of Canada, we serve 1 in 4 Canadians, and we are a leader across many of our business lines. And globally, we are a leader in our unique behavioral insurance offering. We are confident that our all-weather strategy, diverse business model and considerable financial strength and flexibility position us well to win and deliver in 2023 and on our 2025 strategic targets.

我們的全球 WAM 業務不僅是全球領先的退休解決方案提供商，擁有約 900 萬客戶，而且我們還是全球前 10 大零售多經理人。在我們的加拿大本土市場，我們為四分之一的加拿大人提供服務，我們在許多業務領域都處於領先地位。在全球範圍內，我們是我們獨特的行為保險產品的領導者。我們相信，我們的全天候戰略、多元化的商業模式以及可觀的財務實力和靈活性將使我們能夠在 2023 年和 2025 年的戰略目標中獲勝並實現目標。

Thank you. And I'll hand it over to Phil Witherington, who will review the highlights of our financial results. Phil?

謝謝。我會把它交給 Phil Witherington，他將審查我們財務業績的亮點。菲爾？

Thanks, Roy. Before we start, I would like to recognize that the fourth quarter of 2022 is our last reporting period under IFRS 4. Starting with the first quarter of 2023, we'll be reporting under IFRS 17 and IFRS 9. In the latter part of my presentation, I'll provide an update on our IFRS 17 transition impacts. I'll start on Slide 10. We generated core earnings of $1.7 billion, a modest 2% decrease from the prior year quarter. The results reflect a number of factors, including lower core earnings in Global WAM, lower new business gains in Asia and the U.S. and lower in-force earnings in the U.S. due to the VA reinsurance transactions.

謝謝，羅伊。在我們開始之前，我想知道 2022 年第四季度是我們根據 IFRS 4 的最後一個報告期。從 2023 年第一季度開始，我們將根據 IFRS 17 和 IFRS 9 進行報告。在我的後半部分在演示文稿中，我將提供有關 IFRS 17 過渡影響的最新信息。我將從幻燈片 10 開始。我們產生了 17 億美元的核心收益，比去年同期小幅下降 2%。該結果反映了許多因素，包括全球 WAM 的核心收益下降、亞洲和美國的新業務收益下降以及美國因 VA 再保險交易而導致的有效收益下降。

These were largely offset by higher yields on surplus fixed income investments, gains on seed money investments and lower withholding taxes in Corporate and Other, improved policyholder experience in North America and in-force business growth in Asia and Canada. Net income attributed to shareholders of $1.9 billion, decreased by $193 million from the prior year quarter, mainly due to losses from investment-related experience and a smaller gain from the direct impact of markets, partially offset by the favorable impact of an increase in the Canadian corporate tax rate.

這些在很大程度上被盈餘固定收益投資的更高收益率、種子資金投資的收益以及企業和其他領域較低的預扣稅、北美保單持有人體驗的改善以及亞洲和加拿大的有效業務增長所抵消。歸屬於股東的淨收入為 19 億美元，比去年同期減少 1.93 億美元，這主要是由於投資相關經驗的損失和市場直接影響帶來的收益減少，部分被增加的有利影響所抵消加拿大公司稅率。

Of note, investment-related experience in the fourth quarter reflected losses in our older portfolio driven by real estate fair value appraisals, partially offset by the favorable impact of fixed income reinvestment activities and favorable credit experience. I'll speak more about our older performance in a moment. We recognized a net loss of $357 million from investment-related experience. A $100 million gain was included in core earnings and a loss of $457 million was reported outside of core earnings.

值得注意的是，第四季度與投資相關的經驗反映了我們較舊的投資組合因房地產公允價值評估而出現的損失，部分被固定收益再投資活動的有利影響和良好的信貸經驗所抵消。我稍後會更多地談論我們過去的表現。我們從投資相關經驗中確認了 3.57 億美元的淨虧損。 1 億美元的收益計入核心收益，4.57 億美元的損失報告在核心收益之外。

On a full year basis, overall investment-related experience was a gain of $1.2 billion, of which $400 million was reported in core earnings. Our net income in the fourth quarter also included a $297 million gain from the impact of the Canadian corporate tax rate change, an $86 million fair value gain as a result of acquiring the remaining 51% equity interest in our Asset Management business in Mainland China, and a $35 million gain from the reinsurance of our legacy New York VA block.

按全年計算，與投資相關的整體收益為 12 億美元，其中 4 億美元為核心收益。我們第四季度的淨收入還包括因加拿大公司稅率變化的影響而產生的 2.97 億美元收益，以及因收購中國大陸資產管理業務剩餘 51% 股權而產生的 8600 萬美元公允價值收益，以及我們遺留的紐約 VA 街區的再保險收益 3500 萬美元。

Slide 11 shows a recent history of our investment-related experience, including a total gain of $1.2 billion in 2022 that I noted earlier. In addition to the continued strong credit experience and gains from fixed income reinvestment activities in 2022, our older portfolio also achieved higher-than-expected returns, contributing $147 million to investment-related experience gains. The strong performance of our older portfolio is shown on Slide 12. The average annual return of our diversified portfolio since the acquisition of John Hancock 18 years ago was 9.3%, outperforming our current best estimate long-term return assumption of 9.2%.

幻燈片 11 顯示了我們最近的投資相關經驗，包括我之前提到的 2022 年總收益 12 億美元。除了 2022 年持續強勁的信貸經驗和固定收益再投資活動的收益外，我們的舊投資組合還實現了高於預期的回報，為投資相關經驗收益貢獻了 1.47 億美元。幻燈片 12 顯示了我們舊投資組合的強勁表現。自 18 年前收購 John Hancock 以來，我們多元化投資組合的平均年回報率為 9.3%，超過了我們目前最佳估計的 9.2% 的長期回報假設。

Slide 13 shows our source of earnings analysis for the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with the prior year quarter. Expected profit on in-force decreased by 1%, driven by lower U.S. Annuities in-force earnings due to the 2 reinsurance transactions completed in 2022, partially offset by in-force business growth in Asia and Canada. Excluding the impact of the VA reinsurance transactions, our in-force earnings would have grown by 5%. New business gains decreased by 21%, primarily driven by lower gains in Asia and the U.S.

幻燈片 13 顯示了我們對 2022 年第四季度與去年同期相比的收益分析來源。由於 2022 年完成的 2 筆再保險交易導緻美國年金有效收益下降，預期有效利潤下降 1%，部分被亞洲和加拿大的有效業務增長所抵消。排除 VA 再保險交易的影響，我們的有效收益將增長 5%。新業務收益下降 21%，主要受亞洲和美國收益下降的推動。

In Asia, the weaker customer sentiment in Hong Kong, seen in the third quarter continued into the fourth quarter, leading to lower sales volumes. This was partially offset by higher sales and improved margins in Japan. Lower new business gains in the U.S. were primarily due to lower brokerage sales. Policyholder experience was a net charge of $82 million on a pretax basis, an improvement of $38 million compared with the prior year quarter, mainly driven by improved policyholder experience in Canada.

在亞洲，第三季度香港客戶情緒疲軟持續到第四季度，導致銷量下降。這部分被日本更高的銷售額和更高的利潤率所抵消。美國新業務收益下降主要是由於經紀業務銷售額下降。保單持有人體驗的稅前淨費用為 8200 萬美元，與去年同期相比增加了 3800 萬美元，這主要是由於加拿大保單持有人體驗的改善。

Slides 14 and 15 show our earnings by segment and return on equity in the fourth quarter and full year 2022. My remarks will focus on the fourth quarter results. Core earnings in our global WAM business decreased by 34%, primarily driven by a decrease in net fee income from lower average AUMA due to the unfavorable impact of markets. Core earnings in Asia increased by 1%, driven by favorable changes in new business product mix and in-force business growth, partially offset by the impact of lower new business volumes, primarily in Hong Kong due to the factors I noted earlier.

幻燈片 14 和 15 顯示了我們按部門劃分的收益和 2022 年第四季度和全年的股本回報率。我的發言將集中在第四季度的結果上。我們全球 WAM 業務的核心收益下降了 34%，這主要是由於市場的不利影響導致平均 AUMA 較低導致淨費用收入減少所致。在新業務產品組合和有效業務增長的有利變化的推動下，亞洲的核心收益增長了 1%，部分被新業務量減少的影響所抵消，主要是由於我之前提到的因素在香港。

We continued to deliver double-digit core earnings growth in Canada, with a 22% increase, reflecting more favorable experience gains in all business lines, higher Manulife Bank earnings and higher in-force earnings. Core earnings in the U.S. decreased by 25%, largely driven by reduced in-force earnings, due to the VA reinsurance transactions and lower new business gains. The core gain in Corporate and Other of $86 million was $165 million favorable compared with the prior year quarter, mainly due to higher yields on fixed income investments, gains on seeds money investments and lower withholding taxes, partially offset by higher interest on allocated capital to operating segments.

我們在加拿大繼續實現兩位數的核心盈利增長，增幅為 22%，反映出所有業務線的更有利的經驗收益、更高的宏利銀行收益和更高的有效收益。美國的核心收益下降了 25%，這主要是由於 VA 再保險交易和較低的新業務收益導致有效收益減少所致。公司和其他業務的核心收益為 8600 萬美元，與去年同期相比增加了 1.65 億美元，這主要是由於固定收益投資收益率更高、種子資金投資收益和預扣稅更低，部分被分配資本利息增加所抵消經營分部。

And we delivered core ROE of 13.2%, an improvement of 0.5 percentage point compared with the fourth quarter of last year. Turning to Slide 16, which shows our APE sales and new business value generation. In the fourth quarter, we generated APE sales of $1.3 billion, down 12% from the prior year quarter. In Asia, APE sales decreased by 9%, reflecting continued weak customer sentiment in Hong Kong. This was partially offset by higher sales in Japan and Asia Other and notably Mainland China.

核心股本回報率為13.2%，較去年四季度提升0.5個百分點。轉到幻燈片 16，它顯示了我們的 APE 銷售額和新業務價值的產生。第四季度，我們的 APE 銷售額為 13 億美元，比去年同期下降 12%。在亞洲，APE 銷售額下降 9%，反映出香港客戶情緒持續疲軟。這部分被日本和亞洲其他地區，尤其是中國大陸的銷售額增加所抵消。

In Canada, APE sales decreased 15%, reflecting the lower segregated fund and power insurance sales, partially offset by higher group insurance sales. APE sales in the U.S. decreased 21%, reflecting lower customer demand, amid volatile equity markets. And on a full year basis, APE sales decreased 7% compared with the prior year. In the fourth quarter, we delivered new business value of $525 million, a decrease of 9% from the prior year quarter.

在加拿大，APE 銷售額下降了 15%，反映了獨立基金和電力保險銷售額的減少，部分被團體保險銷售額的增加所抵消。美國的 APE 銷售額下降了 21%，反映出在股市波動的情況下客戶需求下降。從全年來看，APE 銷售額與上年相比下降了 7%。第四季度，我們實現了 5.25 億美元的新業務價值，比去年同期下降 9%。

In Asia, NBV decreased 17%, reflecting lower sales in Hong Kong and unfavorable changes in product mix in Asia Other, partially offset by the benefit of higher interest rates and higher individual protection and other wealth sales in Japan. NBV increased 6% in Canada, primarily due to higher margins in our insurance businesses, partially offset by lower volumes in annuities. In the U.S., NBV increased 12%, driven by higher interest rates, higher international sales volumes and product actions, partially offset by lower brokerage sales volumes. For the full year, we delivered new business value of $2.1 billion.

在亞洲，新業務價值下降了 17%，反映了香港銷售額的下降以及亞洲其他地區產品組合的不利變化，部分被日本更高的利率和更高的個人保護以及其他財富銷售所抵消。加拿大的 NBV 增長了 6%，這主要是由於我們保險業務的利潤率較高，但部分被年金業務量下降所抵消。在美國，受利率上升、國際銷售量增加和產品行動推動，新業務價值增長 12%，部分被經紀業務銷售量下降所抵消。全年，我們實現了 21 億美元的新業務價值。

Turning to Slide 17. Our Global WAM business recorded net outflows in the fourth quarter after 8 consecutive quarters of positive net inflows. The net outflow of $8.3 billion reflects weak investor sentiment amid record industry fund outflows in North America mid-market volatility. On a full year basis, we delivered net inflows of $3.3 billion.

轉到幻燈片 17。我們的全球 WAM 業務在連續 8 個季度出現正淨流入後，第四季度錄得淨流出。 83 億美元的淨流出反映了北美中期市場波動創紀錄的行業資金流出導致投資者情緒疲軟。按全年計算，我們實現了 33 億美元的淨流入。

In Retail, net outflows were $4.7 billion compared with net inflows of $7.5 billion in the prior year quarter. The decrease reflects higher mutual fund redemptions and lower investor demand amid higher interest rates and equity market declines. In Retirement, net outflows were $4.6 billion compared with net outflows of $1 billion in the prior year quarter, primarily driven by higher planned redemptions in the U.S.

在零售業，淨流出 47 億美元，而去年同期為 75 億美元的淨流入。這一下降反映了在利率上升和股市下跌的情況下，共同基金贖回增加以及投資者需求下降。在退休方面，淨流出 46 億美元，而去年同期為淨流出 10 億美元，這主要是由於美國更高的計劃贖回。

Our Institutional Asset Management business recorded net inflows of $0.9 billion compared with net inflows of $1.6 billion in the prior year quarter, driven by lower net flows in real estate, timberland and infrastructure products, partially offset by higher sales of fixed income mandates. Overall, 2022 Global WAM's average AUMA decreased by 12% compared with the prior year quarter, driven by unfavorable market movements in the earlier part of 2022.

我們的機構資產管理業務錄得 9 億美元的淨流入，而去年同期為 16 億美元，這是受房地產、林地和基礎設施產品淨流入減少的推動，部分被固定收益授權銷售的增加所抵消。總體而言，由於 2022 年初不利的市場走勢，2022 年全球 WAM 的平均 AUMA 與去年同期相比下降了 12%。

Turning to Slide 18. Net fee income yield of 43.7 basis points was modestly lower than the prior year quarter, driven by lower fee spread. Our core EBITDA margin of 27.3% was 4 percentage points lower than the prior year quarter, reflecting lower fee revenue from lower average AUMA. For the full year, our core EBITDA margin was resilient at 30.4%, enabled by our substantial scale and disciplined approach to managing operating expenses.

轉到幻燈片 18。由於費用利差降低，淨費用收入收益率為 43.7 個基點，略低於去年同期。我們的核心 EBITDA 利潤率為 27.3%，比去年同期低 4 個百分點，反映出較低的平均 AUMA 導致的較低費用收入。全年，我們的核心 EBITDA 利潤率保持在 30.4%，這得益於我們龐大的規模和嚴格的運營支出管理方法。

Moving to Slide 19. We have achieved a remarkable track record of generating positive net flows in 12 of the past 13 years, a demonstration of our strong and diverse Global WAM franchise across retail, retirement and institutional business lines and across geographies.

轉到幻燈片 19。我們在過去 13 年中有 12 年取得了產生正淨流量的卓越記錄，這證明了我們在零售、退休和機構業務線以及跨地區的強大和多樣化的全球 WAM 特許經營權。

Turning to Slide 20. Our strategic focus on digitization and efficiency and disciplined approach to managing operating expenses enabled us to contain core general expense growth to 5% in the fourth quarter and remain in line with 2021 on a full year basis. We achieved an expense efficiency ratio of 50.9% for both the fourth quarter and the full year 2022, despite the inflationary environment. We committed to the target efficiency ratio of below 50% and see it as an important strategic priority to deliver sustainable shareholder value.

轉到幻燈片 20。我們對數字化和效率的戰略重點以及管理運營費用的嚴格方法使我們能夠在第四季度將核心一般費用增長控制在 5%，並與 2021 年全年持平。儘管存在通貨膨脹環境，我們在第四季度和 2022 年全年的費用效率比都達到了 50.9%。我們致力於將目標效率比率控制在 50% 以下，並將其視為實現可持續股東價值的重要戰略重點。

Slide 21 reinforces our strong balance sheet and capital position. Our LICAT ratio of 131% remains strong and represents approximately $20 billion of capital above the supervisory target. The 5 percentage points decrease compared to the third quarter was driven by a capital redemption, continued common share buybacks and the unfavorable impact of market movements on capital, primarily due to the narrowing of corporate spreads.

幻燈片 21 鞏固了我們強大的資產負債表和資本狀況。我們 131% 的 LICAT 比率保持強勁，代表比監管目標高出約 200 億美元的資本。與第三季度相比下降 5 個百分點的原因是資本贖回、持續的普通股回購以及市場變動對資本的不利影響，主要是由於企業利差收窄。

Our financial leverage ratio declined by 1.1 percentage points from the prior quarter, reflecting the redemption of $1 billion of subordinated debt, share buybacks and retained earnings growth. We delivered record remittances of $6.9 billion in 2022, an increase of $2.5 billion compared with 2021, supported by 2 VA reinsurance transactions completed in 2022.

我們的財務槓桿率比上一季度下降了 1.1 個百分點，反映了 10 億美元次級債務的贖回、股票回購和留存收益的增長。在 2022 年完成的 2 筆 VA 再保險交易的支持下，我們在 2022 年交付了創紀錄的 69 億美元匯款，比 2021 年增加了 25 億美元。

Turning to Slide 22. We're committed to creating value to shareholders, including through the use of regular dividends and share buybacks. As Roy mentioned earlier, we have increased our dividend per common share by 10% on an annualized basis since 2017. And we announced yesterday a $0.035 or 11% increase to the quarterly dividend per common share.

轉到幻燈片 22。我們致力於為股東創造價值，包括通過使用定期股息和股票回購。正如 Roy 之前提到的，自 2017 年以來，我們已將每股普通股股息按年率增加 10%。我們昨天宣布將每股普通股季度股息增加 0.035 美元或 11%。

In addition, we repurchased 4.1% of the company's outstanding common shares for $1.9 billion in 2022, demonstrating our strong conviction to execute on buybacks. For the 5-year period from 2018 to 2022, we returned a total of $14.7 billion of cash to our shareholders, which represents approximately 33% of our market capitalization as at the end of 2022.

此外，我們在 2022 年以 19 億美元回購了公司 4.1% 的已發行普通股，表明我們執行回購的堅定信念。從 2018 年到 2022 年的 5 年期間，我們向股東返還了總計 147 億美元的現金，約占我們截至 2022 年底市值的 33%。

Slide 23 shows the summary of our financial performance for the fourth quarter and the full year 2022, and Slide 24 outlines our medium-term financial targets and recent performance. Our performance reflects the resilience of our business against a backdrop of a challenging macro and operating environment in 2022.

幻燈片 23 顯示了我們第四季度和 2022 年全年的財務業績摘要，幻燈片 24 概述了我們的中期財務目標和近期業績。我們的業績反映了我們業務在 2022 年充滿挑戰的宏觀和經營環境背景下的韌性。

Turning to Slide 25, which provides additional information on our IFRS 17 opening balance sheet as of January 1, 2022. Our opening total equity under IFRS 17 was $46.9 billion, 20% lower than reported under IFRS 4 and in line with our previous guidance. The main driver of the decrease is the establishment of the CSM, partially offset by other measurement changes, including 2 provisions held for noneconomic risks and changes to discount rates.

轉到幻燈片 25，它提供了我們截至 2022 年 1 月 1 日的 IFRS 17 期初資產負債表的更多信息。我們根據 IFRS 17 的期初總股本為 469 億美元，比根據 IFRS 4 報告的低 20%，符合我們之前的指導。減少的主要驅動因素是 CSM 的建立，部分被其他計量變化所抵消，包括為非經濟風險持有的 2 項準備金和貼現率的變化。

As a quick recap, one of the key impacts of IFRS 17 is the requirement to set up a new insurance liability component for CSM, which represents expected future profits and is treated as available capital under LICAT. For these reasons, we believe the CSM is an important metric for measuring future earnings capacity and value of the business. As noted previously, we expect the new business CSM balance to grow at 15% per annum and the CSM amortization into core earnings to be approximately 8% to 10% per annum.

快速回顧一下，IFRS 17 的主要影響之一是要求為 CSM 設立一個新的保險負債組成部分，它代表預期的未來利潤，在 LICAT 下被視為可用資本。由於這些原因，我們認為 CSM 是衡量企業未來盈利能力和價值的重要指標。如前所述，我們預計新業務 CSM 餘額將以每年 15% 的速度增長，並且 CSM 攤銷到核心收益中的年增長率約為 8% 至 10%。

The difference in discount rates used for IFRS 17 compared with IFRS 4 has a modestly negative impact. Under IFRS 17, liability discount rates reflect the characteristics of the liability and not the expected returns of assets supporting the liabilities. As such, the weighted average liability discount rate has decreased overall, but the impact varies between segments and business lines.

與 IFRS 4 相比，IFRS 17 所用貼現率的差異具有適度的負面影響。根據 IFRS 17，負債貼現率反映了負債的特徵，而不是支持負債的資產的預期回報。因此，加權平均負債貼現率總體上有所下降，但影響因部門和業務線而異。

Turning to Slide 26. Based on the preliminary results from our IFRS 17 parallel runs for 2022, which is still underway and is not yet complete, I would like to provide an update on our estimated transition impacts. Under IFRS 17, core earnings for the 2022 comparative year are expected to be lower than IFRS 4 2022 core earnings by 5% to 10% compared with the previous estimate of approximately 10%.

轉到幻燈片 26。根據 2022 年 IFRS 17 並行運行的初步結果（仍在進行中且尚未完成），我想提供有關我們估計的過渡影響的最新信息。根據 IFRS 17，2022 比較年的核心收益預計將比 IFRS 4 2022 年核心收益低 5% 至 10%，而此前的估計約為 10%。

As I noted earlier, opening balance sheet total equity declined 20% on January 1, 2022, in line with the guidance that we provided. With respect to January 1, 2023, we expect total equity to be approximately 15% lower on an IFRS 17 basis compared with IFRS 4 and book value per common share to be approximately 20% lower on an IFRS 17 basis compared with IFRS 4.

正如我之前指出的那樣，根據我們提供的指導，2022 年 1 月 1 日期初資產負債表總權益下降了 20%。關於 2023 年 1 月 1 日，我們預計與 IFRS 4 相比，基於 IFRS 17 的總權益將減少約 15%，與 IFRS 4 相比，基於 IFRS 17 的每股普通股賬面價值將減少約 20%。

Along with our second quarter results and with reference to the final 2023 LICAT guideline that was released by OSFI in July 2022, we announced that the estimated impact of IFRS 17 on our LICAT ratio was approximately neutral based on 30th of June market conditions. We also said that we expected the IFRS 17 LICAT ratio to be more stable than under IFRS 4 and in particular, less sensitive to changes in interest rates. Changes in market conditions, specifically rate movements in the second half of 2022, have reduced our LICAT ratio under IFRS 4.

除了我們的第二季度業績，並參考 OSFI 於 2022 年 7 月發布的最終 2023 LICAT 指南，我們宣布，根據 6 月 30 日的市場狀況，IFRS 17 對我們的 LICAT 比率的估計影響大致為中性。我們還表示，我們預計 IFRS 17 LICAT 比率將比 IFRS 4 更穩定，尤其是對利率變化不太敏感。市場條件的變化，特別是 2022 年下半年的利率變動，降低了我們在 IFRS 4 下的 LICAT 比率。

Given the greater stability of our LICAT ratio under IFRS 17, we expect a low single-digit increase in our LICAT ratio as of January 1, 2023. There is no change to our medium-term financial targets, including the new CSM-related targets that were communicated last year. This concludes our prepared remarks. Before we move to the Q&A session, I would like to remind each participant to adhere to a limit of 2 questions, including follow-ups. Operator, we will now open the call to questions.

鑑於我們的 LICAT 比率在 IFRS 17 下更加穩定，我們預計到 2023 年 1 月 1 日我們的 LICAT 比率將以低個位數增長。我們的中期財務目標沒有變化，包括新的 CSM 相關目標這是去年傳達的。我們準備好的發言到此結束。在我們進入問答環節之前，我想提醒每位參與者堅持不超過 2 個問題，包括後續問題。接線員，我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) And the first question is from Meny Grauman from Scotiabank.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Meny Grauman。

Just wanted to ask about investment-related returns. Phil, you referenced fair value changes on real estate. Just wanted to get some more details on that in terms of the asset class geographies? Is it something concentrated? So I'll start there, please.

只是想問一下投資相關的回報。 Phil，你提到了房地產的公允價值變化。只是想了解有關資產類別地理位置的更多詳細信息？它是集中的東西嗎？所以我將從這裡開始。

Sure, Meny. This is Scott Hartz. Thanks for the question. So yes, when we look at investment-related returns, as Phil pointed out, it's been a very strong year with $1.2 billion of investment gains, $800 million above what we would have put into core earnings. And for the -- all the portfolio, in particular, we had gains of $147 million for the year, meaning we slightly exceeded our long-term return expectations. But those returns will vary quarter-to-quarter, particularly all the returns, given the mark-to-market flows through earnings.

當然，梅尼。我是斯科特·哈茨。謝謝你的問題。所以，是的，當我們查看與投資相關的回報時，正如菲爾指出的那樣，這是非常強勁的一年，投資收益為 12 億美元，比我們本應投入核心收益的收益高出 8 億美元。特別是對於所有投資組合，我們今年獲得了 1.47 億美元的收益，這意味著我們略微超出了我們的長期回報預期。但考慮到收益按市值計價，這些回報將隨季度變化，尤其是所有回報。

And in the fourth quarter, we did see lower investment returns. That was largely driven by our real estate portfolio. Most of our other 5, all the categories performed in line with our long-term expectations. So the loss you see, the $357 million for total investment gains, was driven by the real estate portfolio. Now it's important to note that our real estate portfolio is almost entirely mark-to-market by external appraisers each quarter, over 95% of the portfolio. So only a few small properties that are not.

在第四季度，我們確實看到了較低的投資回報。這主要是由我們的房地產投資組合推動的。我們其他 5 個類別中的大多數，所有類別的表現都符合我們的長期預期。所以你看到的損失，即總投資收益的 3.57 億美元，是由房地產投資組合造成的。現在需要注意的是，我們的房地產投資組合幾乎每個季度都由外部評估師按市值計價，佔投資組合的 95% 以上。所以只有幾個小屬性不是。

And what we saw in the fourth quarter is that external appraisers raised their discount rates on real estate, and that was really across the board. So it really hit all categories, not just office, which office has been weaker over the last couple of years. But in the fourth quarter we saw that weakness extend across all categories, particularly in North America. Asia held up a little bit better. It's important to note that these were mark-to-market losses based on higher discount rates. And given the higher discount rates, we would expect to recover those losses in the future through higher returns. So that was really the driver, Meny.

我們在第四季度看到的是，外部評估師提高了他們對房地產的貼現率，這確實是全面的。所以它真的影響了所有類別，而不僅僅是辦公室，在過去幾年中辦公室一直較弱。但在第四季度，我們看到所有類別都表現疲軟，尤其是在北美。亞洲表現好一點。重要的是要注意，這些是基於更高貼現率的按市值計算的損失。考慮到更高的貼現率，我們預計未來會通過更高的回報來彌補這些損失。所以那真的是司機，Meny。

Okay. Yes. I guess, it answers the question. I mean everyone is worried about office values in particular. So the question is, are we seeing the start of that downward revaluation of office properties? But you're saying it's more broad-based than that in terms of what we're seeing this quarter?

好的。是的。我想，它回答了這個問題。我的意思是每個人都特別擔心辦公室價值觀。所以問題是，我們是否看到寫字樓資產價值下調的開始？但你是說它比我們本季度看到的更廣泛？

Yes, that's correct. I think we've seen weakness in office for a couple of years now. And we've got a highly diversified all the portfolio, other things we're doing well. So that didn't really show much. But in the fourth quarter, it really did extend to all categories of real estate.

對，那是正確的。我認為我們已經看到幾年來辦公室的弱點。我們擁有高度多元化的所有投資組合，其他方面我們做得很好。所以這並沒有真正顯示出太多。但到了四季度，它確實擴展到了所有類別的房地產。

The next question is from Gabriel Dechaine from National Bank Financial.

下一個問題來自 National Bank Financial 的 Gabriel Dechaine。

I've got a couple of questions. One is on the reopening in Asia, specifically Hong Kong. I know these things don't turn on a dime. I'm just wondering what sort of lag you expect from now until your sales hit? What you consider their normal run rate or something above where they are today?

我有幾個問題。一是關於在亞洲重新開放，特別是香港。我知道這些東西不會一毛錢。我只是想知道從現在開始到您的銷售達到預期會有什麼樣的滯後？你認為他們的正常運行率是多少還是高於他們今天的水平？

Gabriel. It's Damien here. I appreciate the question. We are seeing -- so firstly, we saw an uptick in MCV, Mainland Chinese visitor sales in the fourth quarter of 2022, which is very positive. We registered strong double-digit growth in Mainland China for quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year in Macau, which was a very positive sign.

加布里埃爾。我是達米安。我很欣賞這個問題。我們看到 - 首先，我們看到 2022 年第四季度中國大陸游客銷售額 MCV 有所上升，這是非常積極的。我們在中國大陸的季度環比和澳門同比均實現了強勁的兩位數增長，這是一個非常積極的信號。

As we go into the first quarter, we are seeing a step change in Mainland Chinese visitor sales into Hong Kong, albeit off a low base, Gabriel, but very positive signs. So whilst clearly, the recovery is happening here. Clearly, the inflows are there. The pace of that recovery over coming months is clearly got to be determined. But positive sign so far.

隨著我們進入第一季度，我們看到中國大陸游客進入香港的銷售額發生了階躍變化，儘管基數較低，加布里埃爾，但這是非常積極的跡象。因此，雖然很明顯，復甦正在這裡發生。顯然，資金流入就在那裡。未來幾個月的複蘇步伐顯然有待確定。但到目前為止是積極的跡象。

And the last thing I'd say here is we're very well positioned to capitalize on the Mainland Chinese visitor opportunity as it returns to Hong Kong. We've got 12,000 agents. We've been focusing very, very hard over the course of the pandemic in beefing up our Mainland Chinese visitor sales capabilities as well as partnership channels, including DBS Bank.

我在這裡要說的最後一件事是，我們已經做好充分準備，可以利用中國大陸游客返回香港的機會。我們有 12,000 名代理人。在大流行期間，我們一直非常非常努力地加強我們的中國大陸游客銷售能力以及包括星展銀行在內的合作渠道。

Somewhere it's more like back half where you expect it to ramp up?

在某個地方它更像是後半部分，您希望它會上升？

Definitely. What I would say is we're expecting a significant recovery over the course of 2023, with a ramp-up in Q1, but that's the way I see it. Thanks.

確實。我想說的是，我們預計在 2023 年期間會出現顯著復甦，並在第一季度有所回升，但這就是我的看法。謝謝。

Okay. And then my second question on the. policyholder experience. I don't know if you can break that number down for us. We just got the one number, which in and of itself is fine. But how much of it was mortality gains in LTV? How much of it was, I'm assuming group in Canada, was positive? And then on the other side, how much of it was negative lapse and mortality in the U.S.? And if that lapse issue was -- experience was tied to the no-lapse guarantee business?

好的。然後是我的第二個問題。保單持有人的經驗。我不知道你是否可以為我們分解這個數字。我們剛得到一個號碼，這本身就很好。但其中有多少是 LTV 的死亡率增加？我假設在加拿大的小組中有多少是積極的？另一方面，在美國有多少是負面的失誤和死亡率？如果那個失誤問題是——經驗與無失誤擔保業務有關？

Thanks, Gabriel. It's Steve here. I'll tackle that. And I guess, I'll speak broadly about what we saw and then try to answer your questions on some of the specifics. So Q4 policyholder experience in total, as Phil noted, was just over $80 million pretax, an improvement from Q3 and from Q4 prior year. I would categorize it as the broad driver of the result was unfavorable lapse experience in our U.S. Life business.

謝謝，加布里埃爾。我是史蒂夫。我會解決的。我想，我會廣泛地談論我們所看到的，然後嘗試回答你關於一些細節的問題。因此，正如 Phil 指出的那樣，第四季度保單持有人的總經驗剛剛超過 8000 萬美元的稅前收入，比第三季度和去年第四季度有所改善。我將其歸類為結果的廣泛驅動因素是我們美國人壽業務中不利的失效經驗。

In terms of mortality and morbidity, so claims results, that varied across businesses and geographies, but it was neutral overall for the quarter. And that was driven by a couple of the things that you noted. We had favorable experience in Group Benefits in Canada, which has been a trend for the full year, very positive results there in the Canadian Group Benefits. We saw a gain in LTC. We saw in Q4 what I would consider normal large-case variability that was a charge in the U.S. So that's sort of the claims side of things.

就死亡率和發病率而言，索賠結果因企業和地區而異，但本季度總體上是中性的。這是由您提到的幾件事驅動的。我們在加拿大的團體福利方面有良好的經驗，這一直是全年的趨勢，在加拿大團體福利方面取得了非常積極的成果。我們看到了 LTC 的收益。我們在第四季度看到了我認為正常的大案例可變性，這在美國是一種收費，所以這就是事情的索賠方面。

In terms of lapse, a little bit of context. So what we're seeing in terms of the lapse results, we had updated our experience in the U.S., updated the assumptions in 2021 fully reflecting pre-pandemic experience. And what we're seeing now is really a shock to the system caused by health concerns from the pandemic as well as more recently, the variability in markets and the uncertain economic outlook. That's impacting more than just the guaranteed UL product line. So it's across a number of product lines.

在失效方面，有一點背景。因此，就失效結果而言，我們所看到的是，我們更新了在美國的經驗，更新了 2021 年的假設，充分反映了大流行前的經驗。我們現在看到的是大流行帶來的健康問題以及最近市場的多變性和經濟前景的不確定性對系統造成的衝擊。這不僅對有保證的 UL 產品線產生影響。所以它跨越了許多產品線。

But my expectation is that these impacts are expected to moderate going forward and revert back to pre-pandemic levels as the pandemic subsides and the economic uncertainty abates. And what really matters is our long-term assumptions. And I continue to have confidence in our -- in the prudence of our long-term assumptions and reserves. And some of what is informing that, that view and that expectation is looking back to another shock to the system, which we saw in the global financial crisis.

但我的預期是，隨著大流行病的消退和經濟不確定性的減弱，這些影響有望在未來緩和並恢復到大流行前的水平。真正重要的是我們的長期假設。而且我繼續對我們的 - 對我們的長期假設和儲備的審慎性充滿信心。一些信息表明，這種觀點和期望正在回顧我們在全球金融危機中看到的對系統的另一次沖擊。

And I lived through that in the U.S. Life business. And we saw a similar phenomenon, discontinuities across multiple product lines, and that experience did -- it took some time, but it did revert back to pre-pandemic levels, and that's informing my views. On the NLG, those lapse rates bottomed out in the middle of 2021, and we have seen some trend or reversion back, but not fully at this point. So I'll stop there.

我在美國人壽保險業務中經歷了這些。我們看到了類似的現象，即跨多個產品線的不連續性，這種經歷確實發生了——這花了一些時間，但它確實恢復到了大流行前的水平，這就是我的觀點。在 NLG 上，這些失效率在 2021 年年中觸底，我們看到了一些趨勢或回歸，但目前還沒有完全回歸。所以我就到此為止。

The next question is from Doug Young from Desjardins Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 Desjardins Capital Markets 的 Doug Young。

Phil, I wanted to go back to Slide 26 and just a few things I wanted to clarify here. You say the equity hit from transitioning to IFRS 17 was 13%, but the book value hit is 20%. Just trying to understand the difference between the moves, 15% to 20% between those 2? Why the difference in equity and the book value hit? And then can you also kind of delve into a little bit on why the impact on core earnings 2022 comp went down from roughly 10% to 5% to 10%? If you can give maybe a little bit of detail as to what drove that.

Phil，我想回到幻燈片 26，我只想在這裡澄清幾件事。你說過渡到 IFRS 17 對股權的影響是 13%，但賬面價值的影響是 20%。只是想了解這些動作之間的差異，這兩個動作之間有 15% 到 20%？為什麼股權和賬面價值的差異會受到影響？然後，您能否深入研究一下為什麼對 2022 年核心收益的影響從大約 10% 下降到 5% 再到 10%？如果你能提供一些細節來說明是什麼推動了這一點。

Sure. Thank you, Doug, for the question. I'm happy to elaborate there. So I'll start with the first component of your question on the balance sheet impact. The guidance we provided, it was -- along with our Q1 results in 2022 was a 20% impact to an estimated 20% impact to total equity. That's actually what has happened. We published our opening balance sheet, along with our results yesterday, the impact is 20%. But the additional guidance we provided yesterday was over the course of 2022, what we have seen is a more stable IFRS 17 book value relative to IFRS 4. And therefore, by the end of 2022, we expect the total equity impact to be lower and approximately 15%.

當然。謝謝道格提出的問題。我很樂意在那裡詳細說明。因此，我將從您關於資產負債表影響的問題的第一個組成部分開始。我們提供的指導以及我們 2022 年第一季度的業績對總股本產生了 20% 的影響，估計影響為 20%。這就是實際發生的事情。我們昨天公佈了我們的期初資產負債表以及我們的結果，影響是 20%。但我們昨天提供的額外指導是在 2022 年期間，我們看到的是 IFRS 17 賬面價值相對於 IFRS 4 更穩定。因此，到 2022 年底，我們預計總股本影響會更低，約 15%。

Your question on why the book value -- common shareholder book value per share is approximately 20% impact by the end of 2022. That's really the -- what I would describe as the denominator impact. When you strip out the preference shares (inaudible) as well as policy -- participating policyholder impacts, the impact is approximately 20% by the end of 2022.

你的問題是為什麼賬面價值——到 2022 年底，普通股股東每股賬面價值會受到大約 20% 的影響。這真的是——我稱之為分母的影響。當你剔除優先股（聽不清）以及政策——參與保單持有人的影響時，到 2022 年底影響約為 20%。

The -- your second question relating to the expected impact on 2022 core earnings. When we provided the guidance earlier last year, we were expecting 2022 to be a more normal year, a typical year, I think, is the language we used at the time. What's actually transpired in 2022, it's a very challenging backdrop. And for that reason, new business gains on an IFRS 4 basis were lower than we had anticipated. In fact, approximately 20% lower year-on-year. And that's really the key driver of the reduced impact that we're now expecting somewhere between 5% and 10%.

你的第二個問題是關於對 2022 年核心收益的預期影響。當我們去年早些時候提供指導時，我們預計 2022 年將是更正常的一年，我認為典型的一年是我們當時使用的語言。 2022 年實際發生的事情是一個非常具有挑戰性的背景。因此，基於 IFRS 4 的新業務收益低於我們的預期。事實上，同比下降約 20%。這確實是我們現在預計影響降低 5% 到 10% 的關鍵驅動因素。

Okay. So just to clarify, the total equity includes par, includes perhaps all of those things, that's different than the book value per share. Is that -- or is that include shareholder equity?

好的。所以澄清一下，總股本包括面值，可能包括所有這些東西，這與每股賬面價值不同。那是——還是包括股東權益？

Spot on.

發現。

The next question is from Paul Holden from CIBC.

下一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Paul Holden。

So sticking with the IFRS 17 theme. One of your peers highlighted that there's more of an interest rate benefit under IFRS 17 versus IFRS 4, i.e., it flows through into core results faster under IFRS 17. Wondering if that's also true in your case, you suggest that there's less rate sensitivity. So maybe you can just address that and help us out.

所以堅持 IFRS 17 的主題。您的一位同行強調，與 IFRS 4 相比，IFRS 17 下的利率優勢更大，即，它在 IFRS 17 下更快地流入核心結果。想知道這是否也適用於您的情況，您認為利率敏感性較低。所以也許你可以解決這個問題並幫助我們。

Sure. Thanks, Paul. This is Phil. The main benefit that we see from interest rates on an IFRS 17 basis is actually the closer matching of the economics of the assets and liabilities. So what we have observed during the 2022 ongoing parallel runs is that the greater stability in our book value as a result of the largely offsetting movements in assets and liabilities as a result of movements in interest rates.

當然。謝謝，保羅。這是菲爾。我們從基於 IFRS 17 的利率中看到的主要好處實際上是資產和負債的經濟性更加匹配。因此，我們在 2022 年正在進行的並行運行中觀察到的是，由於利率變動導致資產和負債的變動在很大程度上抵消了我們賬面價值的穩定性。

And that really reflects the fact that when we manage our asset portfolio, we hedge our liability movements on an economic basis and IFRS 17 is a closer representation of the economics. So when you translate all that to the -- what we see in an IFRS 17 environment, we see greater stability in book value And when you compare that greater stability on an IFRS 17 basis to IFRS 4, during the course of 2022, we've seen rising interest rates that has had a lowering impact or an adverse impact on IFRS 4 equity, but very stable IFRS 17 equity, including a more stable LICAT ratio, which I think is a very positive factor for the future.

這確實反映了這樣一個事實，即當我們管理我們的資產組合時，我們在經濟基礎上對我們的負債變動進行了對沖，而 IFRS 17 更接近於經濟學。因此，當您將所有這些轉化為——我們在 IFRS 17 環境中看到的情況時，我們會看到賬面價值更加穩定 當您將 IFRS 17 基礎上的穩定性與 IFRS 4 進行比較時，在 2022 年期間，我們'我已經看到利率上升對 IFRS 4 權益產生了降低影響或不利影響，但 IFRS 17 權益非常穩定，包括更穩定的 LICAT 比率，我認為這對未來是一個非常積極的因素。

And Phil, I'll just jump in there in terms of interest -- the impact of interest rates flowing into earnings, some of -- the same benefits that we've seen under IFRS 4 in 2022 from higher rates, particularly earnings on surplus, that will flow through as well under IFRS 17.

Phil，我只想談一下利息——利率對收益的影響，其中一些——我們在 2022 年根據 IFRS 4 從更高的利率中看到的相同收益，特別是盈餘收益，這也將在 IFRS 17 下流過。

Okay. That's helpful. And that kind of leads me into the second question, which is the earnings on surplus was obviously very positive this quarter. I mean a significant outlier versus recent quarters and even going back over history. So just wondering if you can help us break down to what extent that's attributable to higher bond yields? And how much might be sort of, to abnormal gains on seed capital and other factors?

好的。這很有幫助。這讓我想到了第二個問題，即本季度的盈餘收益顯然非常積極。我的意思是與最近幾個季度相比有很大的異常值，甚至可以追溯到歷史。所以只是想知道你是否可以幫助我們分解在多大程度上歸因於較高的債券收益率？種子資本和其他因素的異常收益可能有多少？

Got it. Thanks, Paul. Great question. And earlier this year, for the first 3 quarters, I think some of the benefits of higher interest rates have been less visible because of declines in seed capital and the absence of AFS equity gains being recognized in core earnings because of market conditions. But when we look at Q4, a more normal market environment, we do see the benefits of higher interest rates showing through in earnings on surplus.

知道了。謝謝，保羅。很好的問題。今年早些時候，在前 3 個季度，我認為由於種子資本下降以及市場狀況導致 AFS 股權收益沒有在核心收益中得到確認，因此較高利率的一些好處不太明顯。但當我們審視第四季度時，一個更正常的市場環境，我們確實看到更高利率的好處體現在盈餘收益中。

And to give you a sense of the magnitude there, when you look at our after-tax earnings on surplus in the fourth quarter, $295 million, $260 million of that is coming from yield on fixed income instruments. That's an $80 million increase after tax compared to the fourth quarter of last year. And what that reflects is the sustainable impact of higher interest rates that currently prevail. So if rates stay where they are, we would expect not only that to remain stable, but also to increase over time as we continue to invest in higher-yielding instruments.

為了讓您了解其中的規模，當您查看我們第四季度的稅後盈餘收益時，2.95 億美元，其中 2.6 億美元來自固定收益工具的收益率。與去年第四季度相比，稅後收入增加了 8000 萬美元。這反映的是目前普遍存在的更高利率的可持續影響。因此，如果利率保持不變，我們預計利率不僅會保持穩定，而且會隨著我們繼續投資於高收益工具而隨著時間的推移而增加。

Now the -- to your point on to what extent is the seed capital gains and gains from AFS equities included within that? That's -- the dollar amount in the fourth quarter in aggregate for AFS equity gains and seed capital is just over $100 million. Typically, I would expect somewhere between $80 million and $100 million a quarter. So this is -- I'd say just above the typical range that we would expect maybe in the order of $10 million or so.

現在 - 你的觀點是種子資本收益和 AFS 股票收益在多大程度上包含在其中？也就是說——第四季度 AFS 股權收益和種子資本的美元總額剛剛超過 1 億美元。通常，我預計每個季度的收入在 8000 萬到 1 億美元之間。所以這是 - 我會說略高於我們預期的典型範圍，可能在 1000 萬美元左右。

But I would emphasize this is a normalization, I think, in the fourth quarter of what we would typically expect to see on an IFRS 4 basis. And the first 3 quarters of the year were not what I would typically expect to have experienced.

但我要強調的是，我認為這是我們通常期望在 IFRS 4 基礎上看到的第四季度的正常化。今年前 3 個季度並不是我通常期望的那樣。

Well, I might just add a couple of other points, if I may. And I think Phil covered the question quite well, but if you think about higher rates, we have been in an environment of lower rates for more than a decade, which has been a headwind for our industry and, quite frankly, for us. And per our disclosures, we've shared that a 50 basis point increase in rates equates to a $1.6 billion PV of future earnings.

好吧，如果可以的話，我可能會補充幾點。我認為菲爾很好地回答了這個問題，但如果你考慮更高的利率，十多年來我們一直處於較低利率的環境中，這對我們的行業來說是一個逆風，坦率地說，對我們來說也是如此。根據我們的披露，我們已經分享了利率增加 50 個基點相當於未來收益 16 億美元的現值。

So higher rates is certainly something which is a positive and a tailwind for us. In '22, we saw rates up approximately about 150 points. And the run rate benefit to earnings of those higher rates are approximately $170 million per year. That's pretax. And that doesn't include other benefits such as margin improvements in our Group Benefits business or new business value improvements as well.

因此，更高的利率對我們來說肯定是積極的和順風的。在 22 年，我們看到利率上升了大約 150 個百分點。這些較高利率的運行率收益每年約為 1.7 億美元。那是稅前。這還不包括其他好處，例如我們集團福利業務的利潤率提高或新業務價值的提高。

And on top of that, obviously, if rates stay higher at the tail end, then there are possibly URR benefits as well. So I would just sort of add that whilst '22 was an environment with a lot of volatility, we have seen higher rates. We do expect that as central banks around the world continue to raise rates despite inflation that we are going to be in an environment of higher rates and we see that as a positive clearly.

最重要的是，顯然，如果利率在尾端保持較高水平，那麼 URR 也可能帶來好處。所以我想補充一點，雖然 22 年是一個波動很大的環境，但我們看到了更高的利率。我們確實預計，儘管通貨膨脹，但隨著世界各國央行繼續加息，我們將處於更高利率的環境中，我們認為這顯然是積極的。

The next question is from Tom MacKinnon from BMO Capital.

下一個問題來自 BMO Capital 的 Tom MacKinnon。

Just continuing on this seed capital AFS gains guide that you gave, Phil. It was over $100 million in the quarter and you expect kind of a run rate of $80 million to $100 million. Seed capital gains in AFS equity gains are largely driven by increases in the equity markets. The fourth quarter, the equity market was up 7% from September 30 to December 31. So I think you generally assume the market would be up about 2% each quarter. So why would the number not be like, 2/7 of that over $100 million? Why wouldn't the guide be like significantly less than the $100 million going forward? And then I have a follow-up.

菲爾，請繼續閱讀您提供的種子資本 AFS 收益指南。本季度超過 1 億美元，您預計運行率為 8000 萬至 1 億美元。 AFS 股權收益中的種子資本收益主要由股票市場的增長驅動。第四季度，股市從 9 月 30 日到 12 月 31 日上漲了 7%。所以我認為你通常認為市場每個季度上漲約 2%。那麼，為什麼這個數字不是超過 1 億美元的 2/7？為什麼指南不會比未來的 1 億美元少很多？然後我有一個後續行動。

Thanks, Tom. So in a typical quarter, normal environment, we'd expect somewhere between $50 million and $100 million of aggregate seed capital and AFS equity gains. There's clearly some discretion as to the timing of AFS equity gains. So it's not entirely dependent upon what happens in any particular quarter. What happened in the fourth quarter, the aggregate gain was $110 million post tax. So I would say that's in the order of $10 million above the sort of typical range that you could expect in any particular quarter, Tom.

謝謝，湯姆。因此，在一個典型的季度、正常環境中，我們預計總種子資本和 AFS 股權收益將在 5000 萬至 1 億美元之間。對於 AFS 股權收益的時間，顯然有一些自由裁量權。因此，這並不完全取決於任何特定季度發生的情況。第四季度的稅後總收益為 1.1 億美元。所以我想說，這比你在任何特定季度預期的典型範圍高出 1000 萬美元，湯姆。

Yes. It's Scott. I might add to that. I think you're right. So that math doesn't work because of the AFS timing as well as in the seed capital, there are a bunch of bond funds and rates were up in the fourth quarter. So that did not create the gains you might have otherwise expect.

是的。是斯科特。我可能會補充一點。我想你是正確的。因此，由於 AFS 的時間安排以及種子資本，數學不起作用，第四季度有大量債券基金和利率上升。因此，這並沒有創造您可能期望的收益。

Okay. So the wild card seems to be the timing of the AFS gains. But -- okay. Question with respect to the Global Wealth and Asset Management business. Even if I just look quarter-over-quarter, the assets were higher, but the core earnings were significantly less and the margins were significantly less. Now is there anything particular to the fourth quarter, like in terms of higher OpEx, any other kind of expenses that would deem to be one timers?

好的。因此，外卡似乎是 AFS 收益的時機。但是——好吧。關於全球財富和資產管理業務的問題。即使我只看季度環比，資產也更高，但核心收益明顯減少，利潤率也明顯減少。現在第四季度有什麼特別之處嗎，比如在更高的運營支出方面，是否有任何其他類型的費用被認為是一次性費用？

How should we be looking at core earnings and margin potential for this business going forward? Because I think the fourth quarter GWAM disappointed in terms of margins and in terms of flows. But if you can give us any kind of guide as to how we should be thinking about this business going forward? And how -- anything that was unique to the fourth quarter that drove that margin down?

我們應該如何看待這項業務未來的核心收益和利潤潛力？因為我認為第四季度 GWAM 在利潤率和流量方面令人失望。但是，您能否就我們應該如何考慮這項業務的發展提供任何指導？以及如何 - 第四季度的任何獨特之處導致利潤率下降？

Yes. Thanks, Tom. It's Paul here. So you're right. We did have some onetime items in Q4 as well as Q3. And so quarter-over-quarter, I'll kind of just go through that with you and then give you kind of a perspective of how to maybe look at it. In Q3, there were 2 items that were favorable to the core earnings. One was a tax benefit. We tend to see every Q3, particularly in our U.S. Retirement business. And then we also had an adjustment to our compensation expense in Q3 that was lower, so a negative adjustment.

是的。謝謝，湯姆。是保羅。所以你是對的。我們在第四季度和第三季度確實有一些一次性項目。所以每個季度，我都會和你一起經歷，然後給你一個關於如何看待它的觀點。第三季度，有2項對核心收益有利。一個是稅收優惠。我們傾向於看到每個第三季度，特別是在我們的美國退休業務中。然後我們還對第三季度的補償費用進行了調整，該費用較低，因此是負調整。

The combination of those 2 in Q3 was about $37 million of core earnings. If I look at Q4, there was also some onetime items in Q4, but they were going the other way. We tend to see seasonal -- higher seasonal expenses in our Retirement business as we gear up for the next year. And again, that typically happens every Q4. But we also had incurred a restructuring charge in the quarter as we made some changes with the GWAM to drive efficiencies go forward. The combination of those 2 was about $34 million.

第三季度這兩項的總和約為 3700 萬美元的核心收益。如果我看一下第四季度，第四季度也有一些一次性項目，但它們是相反的。隨著我們為明年做準備，我們往往會看到退休業務的季節性支出增加。同樣，這通常會在每個第四季度發生。但我們在本季度也產生了重組費用，因為我們對 GWAM 進行了一些更改以提高效率。這兩個的總和約為 3400 萬美元。

So if you look at the quarter-over-quarter, that's about $71 million of the $86 million change. The rest is really the average AUMA movement and the fee income on that. So the way I would look at it is, is really look at full year 2022 versus 2021. That will automatically adjust for the seasonality of the tax benefit in Q3 and the seasonality of expenses in Q4. And just smooth out any onetime that may happen from quarter-to-quarter.

因此，如果你看一下季度環比，這大約是 8600 萬美元變化中的 7100 萬美元。剩下的實際上是平均 AUMA 運動和收費收入。所以我看待它的方式是，真正看一下 2022 年全年與 2021 年的對比。這將自動調整第三季度稅收優惠的季節性和第四季度支出的季節性。並消除每個季度可能發生的任何一次。

If you look at that, I would really look to the overall AUMA as the driver, the core EBITDA margin. And then the stability of our net interest fee yield on the assets as well as our expense management over time. So if you look at the EBITDA margin, an example '22, there was a little bit of compression from 2021. And that's really the average AUMA movement and fee income. And while we were able to manage expenses and keep them flat, including that restructuring charge, we can't completely offset the total decline in down markets, but the opposite is true in up markets.

如果你看那個，我真的會把整體 AUMA 視為驅動因素，即核心 EBITDA 利潤率。然後是我們資產的淨利息費用收益率的穩定性以及我們的費用管理隨著時間的推移。因此，如果您查看 EBITDA 利潤率，例如 22 年，從 2021 年開始有所壓縮。這實際上是平均 AUMA 變動和費用收入。雖然我們能夠管理費用並保持平穩，包括重組費用，但我們無法完全抵消低迷市場的總下降，但在高漲市場中情況恰恰相反。

And you would have seen that historically over the last 3 years as we've driven margin expansion as markets improve and we manage our expenses. So that's how I would think about the business. And I wouldn't look to Q4 as really an indication of any change in terms of the underlying earnings power of the franchise.

你會在過去 3 年的歷史中看到這一點，因為隨著市場的改善和我們管理費用，我們推動了利潤率的增長。這就是我對業務的看法。而且我不會將第四季度視為特許經營的潛在盈利能力發生任何變化的真正跡象。

So we had 30% in 2022 or 29.9% and that was a down market, if you will. And then 2021, up market, we had 31.5% in terms of core EBITDA margin. Should we be thinking that, going forward, it would be somewhere between those 2 if we got more stable markets?

所以我們在 2022 年有 30% 或 29.9%，如果你願意的話，那是一個低迷的市場。然後到 2021 年，在高端市場，我們的核心 EBITDA 利潤率為 31.5%。我們是否應該考慮，如果我們有更穩定的市場，未來會介於這兩者之間？

Yes. It's really dependent on the markets and average AUMA. What I can say what I reiterated before is we try and manage our expenses to about 50% of revenue growth over the long term to help drive that expansion. So I would just look at what's typically happened. And again, you would have thought about 110-basis-point last year decline based on that market. And again, we would see the opposite. If we saw markets improve as we would expect some leverage on our fixed expense base.

是的。這真的取決於市場和平均 AUMA。我可以說的是，我之前重申過的是，我們試圖將我們的支出長期控制在收入增長的 50% 左右，以幫助推動這種擴張。所以我只想看看通常會發生什麼。再一次，你會想到去年基於那個市場下跌 110 個基點。再一次，我們會看到相反的情況。如果我們看到市場像我們預期的那樣改善我們的固定費用基礎。

The next question is from Scott Chan from Canaccord Genuity.

下一個問題來自 Canaccord Genuity 的 Scott Chan。

Maybe going back to Asia, Damien. I see that core expenses were up in Q4, and I assume that's because of the ramp-up and you called out agents. And I noticed your agents were increased a lot, and I see that with peers. But as you head into 2023, like from the ground level, can you give us a sense of competition that you see is kind of more or less or if there's any certain Asia regions that you could refer to that might have that dynamic?

也許回到亞洲，達米恩。我看到第四季度的核心費用增加了，我認為這是因為增加了，你叫了代理人。我注意到你們的代理人增加了很多，我在同行中也看到了這一點。但是當你進入 2023 年時，比如從地面上看，你能否給我們一種你看到的或多或少的競爭感，或者你是否可以參考某些亞洲地區可能具有這種動態？

Yes. Thanks, Scott, for the question. Firstly, on the question of expenses, let me cover that briefly. We remain tightly focused on expense discipline and continue to track within our capital expense efficiency ratio target of 50% and did so for the full year of 2022 and for the fourth quarter. You will see some seasonality there, which we did see in the fourth quarter associated with us driving some business growth there. But generally, we're hanging on fairly well there.

是的。斯科特，謝謝你提出這個問題。首先，關於費用問題，讓我簡單介紹一下。我們仍然密切關注費用紀律，並繼續跟踪我們 50% 的資本費用效率目標，並在 2022 年全年和第四季度實現了這一目標。你會在那裡看到一些季節性，我們在第四季度確實看到了與我們推動那裡的一些業務增長相關的季節性。但總的來說，我們在那裡堅持得相當好。

In terms of competition across markets, the first thing I'd say is, I mean, just a macro view on our competitive performance through the pandemic. We've demonstrated considerable resilience through the pandemic in comparison to peers, growing our core earnings at a CAGR of 4% between 2019 being the immediate pre-pandemic year and to the end of last year's reporting period 2022, pretty positive. We remain the top 3 Pan-Asian insurer, and we're a scaled player there operating in 11 markets.

就跨市場競爭而言，我要說的第一件事是，我的意思是，只是對我們在大流行期間的競爭表現的宏觀看法。與同行相比，我們在大流行期間表現出了相當大的彈性，從 2019 年大流行前一年到去年 2022 年報告期末，我們的核心收益以 4% 的複合年增長率增長，非常積極。我們仍然是汎亞地區排名前三的保險公司，而且我們是一家在 11 個市場開展業務的大型企業。

So typically, in terms of competitive dynamics, I'd have to say broadly, every market in Asia, whether it's an emerging market or a more mature market like Hong Kong or Japan, has considerable competition and quite intense competition. But our scaled franchise, particularly in cornerstone markets like Hong Kong, where we're a leader; Singapore, where we're #2 in the market; Vietnam, where we have the leading franchise by far, gives us scale advantages and comparative scale advantages. So I think we're very well equipped to continue to compete for the share of growth and value.

因此，通常情況下，就競爭動態而言，我不得不廣泛地說，亞洲的每個市場，無論是新興市場還是像香港或日本這樣更成熟的市場，都存在相當大的競爭，而且競爭非常激烈。但我們規模龐大的特許經營權，尤其是在我們處於領先地位的香港等基石市場；新加坡，我們在市場上排名第二；到目前為止，我們在越南擁有領先的特許經營權，為我們提供了規模優勢和比較規模優勢。所以我認為我們有能力繼續爭奪增長和價值的份額。

And maybe one follow-up for Roy. Just on capital deployment. You kind of talked about 100% ownership. But I saw that you did a minority stake in a private equity firm in Asia. So it seems like the theme of deployment in Asia, as you talked about in the past, is important. I'm just curious within your maybe current JV ownerships or outside of that looking at other asset management and bank insurance. And maybe if you can kind of maybe talk about the pipeline now that Asia is reopening there?

也許還有羅伊的後續行動。只是在資本配置上。您談到了 100% 的所有權。但我看到你持有亞洲一家私募股權公司的少數股權。因此，正如您過去談到的那樣，在亞洲部署的主題似乎很重要。我只是好奇您目前的合資企業所有權，或者在其他資產管理和銀行保險方面的所有權。既然亞洲正在那裡重新開放，也許你能談談管道嗎？

Yes. Thanks for the question. Scott, a couple of thoughts I'd leave you with. Firstly, we are in a strong capital position with a LICAT ratio of 1.31. We have $20 billion in excess of the supervisory minimum. So that really gives us certainly a lot of confidence, especially as we've navigated 3 challenging years through the pandemic and still an uncertain economic environment as we look to '23 and beyond. But despite that, I think that capital strength has put us in a position to create value through the deployment of capital.

是的。謝謝你的問題。斯科特，我想留給你一些想法。首先，我們的資本狀況良好，LICAT 比率為 1.31。我們有 200 億美元超過監管最低限額。因此，這確實給了我們很大的信心，尤其是當我們在大流行病中度過了充滿挑戰的 3 年，展望 23 世紀及以後，經濟環境仍然不確定。但儘管如此，我認為資本實力使我們能夠通過資本配置創造價值。

In '22, we basically bought back 4.1% of our outstanding shares or deployed $1.9 billion to share buybacks, which, again, we felt was a very prudent way to create value for shareholders. And our dividend increase, the CAGR of 10% from 2017 to '22, again, was a source of value, and we're proud to announce that the Board approved an 11% increase effective March of '23.

在 22 年，我們基本上回購了 4.1% 的已發行股票或部署了 19 億美元用於股票回購，我們再次認為這是為股東創造價值的一種非常謹慎的方式。我們的股息增長，從 2017 年到 22 年 10% 的複合年增長率，再次成為價值的來源，我們很自豪地宣布，董事會批准從 23 年 3 月起增加 11%。

So dividend buybacks -- sorry, dividend increases and share buybacks have been really a large part of our focus from a capital deployment perspective. We think that, opportunistically, there may be M&A opportunities for us to consider. Although one of our unique opportunities is that we can grow and deliver against our targets without M&A, which I think has really meant that we can be more judicious and less reckless, quite honestly, with a deployment of capital to M&A.

因此，股息回購——抱歉，從資本部署的角度來看，股息增加和股票回購確實是我們關注的很大一部分。我們認為，從機會主義的角度來看，我們可能會考慮併購機會。儘管我們獨特的機會之一是我們可以在不進行併購的情況下實現增長並實現我們的目標，但我認為這確實意味著我們可以更明智、更不魯莽，老實說，通過將資本部署到併購中。

But despite that, we have deployed to various initiatives, including the MTEDA JV acquisition that you referenced, which is something we're really excited about. In fact, we were the first foreign company to receive approval to acquire full ownership of a JV asset management company. We've been with our JV partner for 10 years. It's performed incredibly well, and that opportunity in China is a phenomenal one. It's a $3.8 trillion market, basically opportunity with incredibly low penetration rates.

但儘管如此，我們已經部署了各種計劃，包括您提到的 MTEDA JV 收購，這是我們非常興奮的事情。事實上，我們是第一家獲准收購合資資產管理公司全部所有權的外國公司。我們與合資夥伴合作已有 10 年。它表現得非常好，在中國的機會是一個非凡的機會。這是一個 3.8 萬億美元的市場，基本上是滲透率極低的機會。

And it's a market that's grown at a CAGR of 20% over the last 10 years. So that obviously is very exciting for us. We did the JV with Mahindra in India. Again, we think that's a tremendous opportunity, given the growth and scale of the India market. We started our bank partnership with VietinBank in Q1 of '22, which, again, gives us access to 14 million customers. So we're feeling pretty good about the capital that we've deployed.

這是一個在過去 10 年中以 20% 的複合年增長率增長的市場。所以這顯然對我們來說非常令人興奮。我們在印度與 Mahindra 建立了合資企業。同樣，鑑於印度市場的增長和規模，我們認為這是一個巨大的機會。我們在 22 年第一季度開始與 VietinBank 建立銀行合作夥伴關係，這再次使我們能夠接觸到 1400 萬客戶。所以我們對我們已經部署的資本感覺很好。

We do believe that there may be more opportunities that may emerge, and our strong capital position will actually equip us with the opportunity to possibly opportunistically look at those. And we recently filed for a new NCIB for 2023 with the TSX. So again, capital strength, I think, is something that's been forte for our company, and it's allowed us to create shareholder value. And quite frankly, we'll continue to allow us to create shareholder value in '23.

我們確實相信可能會出現更多機會，而我們強大的資本狀況實際上將使我們有機會機會主義地看待這些機會。我們最近向 TSX 申請了 2023 年新的 NCIB。因此，我認為，資本實力對我們公司來說一直是強項，它讓我們能夠創造股東價值。坦率地說，我們將繼續允許我們在 23 年創造股東價值。

The next question is from Mario Mendonca from TD Securities.

下一個問題來自道明證券的 Mario Mendonca。

First, we could go to the CSM balance. That balance, can you give us an indication of how -- you're clear that the balance grows at 8% to 10%. Would it be fair to say that the amortization would also grow by 8% to 10%? And sort of related to that, how quickly does that CSM amortize? Is it over 10 years, 20 years? Can you give us an outlook on those 2?

首先，我們可以查看 CSM 餘額。那個餘額，你能告訴我們如何 - 你很清楚餘額以 8% 到 10% 的速度增長。攤銷也會增長 8% 到 10% 公平嗎？與此相關的是，CSM 的攤銷速度有多快？超過10年，20年？你能給我們一個關於這兩個的展望嗎？

Sure. Mario, thanks for the question. This is Phil. Your hypothesis is right there. We expect the amortization of the CSM to be about 8% to 10% per year. So over a 12-year period, it would emerge into income based on that math. But the reality is that we expect the CSM balance to not only remain stable as a result of the new business generation but grow by a similar magnitude at 8% to 10%. And that really reflects the growth opportunity in our global franchise, in particular, in Asia.

當然。馬里奧，謝謝你的提問。這是菲爾。你的假設就在那裡。我們預計 CSM 的攤銷每年約為 8% 至 10%。因此，在 12 年的時間裡，它將根據該數學計算得出收入。但現實情況是，我們預計 CSM 平衡不僅會因為新業務的產生而保持穩定，而且還會以 8% 至 10% 的類似幅度增長。這確實反映了我們全球特許經營的增長機會，尤其是在亞洲。

Okay. So the 8% to 10% you said in your opening comments, that was the 12 years you were referring to. I thought you said that was the growth in the balance?

好的。所以你在開場評論中說的 8% 到 10%，就是你指的 12 年。我以為你說那是餘額增長？

It's both. So 8% to 10% of growth in the balance, but also 8% to 10% amortization of that balance per year.

兩者都是。所以 8% 到 10% 的餘額增長，還有 8% 到 10% 的餘額攤銷每年。

I understand. Okay. And then my second question, and this might be more appropriate for Steve. Looking at the changes in assumptions, and I'm not talking about the noneconomics, I'm talking about the economic assumptions. Changes in assumptions for public equities and all of the -- going forward. Under IFRS 4, that would have been immediately reflected in your LICAT, would have been immediately reflected in net income, maybe taken out of core. It would have been reflected immediately in book value and book value excluding OCI.

我明白。好的。然後是我的第二個問題，這可能更適合史蒂夫。看看假設的變化，我不是在談論非經濟學，而是在談論經濟假設。公共股票和所有未來假設的變化。根據 IFRS 4，這會立即反映在您的 LICAT 中，會立即反映在淨收入中，可能會從核心中扣除。它會立即反映在賬面價值和不包括 OCI 的賬面價值中。

But under IFRS 17, my understanding is that changes in things like public equity assumptions and ALDA will flow through all of those things, net income, core, book value, LICAT. First, do I have that right?

但根據 IFRS 17，我的理解是，公共股權假設和 ALDA 等事物的變化將貫穿所有這些事物，淨收入、核心、賬面價值、LICAT。首先，我有這個權利嗎？

Mario, yes, you have that right. Under IFRS 4, we capitalized the full present value of all the future impacts as -- if we change in ALDA assumption. Under IFRS 17 because of the delinking between the assets and the liabilities, it does not impact the valuation. And if the assumption has changed, presumably that reflects what will actually occur, that will come in over time.

馬里奧，是的，你有這個權利。根據 IFRS 4，我們將所有未來影響的全部現值資本化為——如果我們改變 ALDA 假設。根據 IFRS 17，由於資產和負債之間的脫鉤，它不會影響估值。如果假設已經改變，大概反映了實際發生的事情，那將隨著時間的推移而出現。

And now because it's going to come in overtime in all areas, core earnings, net income, book value, LICAT, does that change your perspective on making changes to assumptions because it was such a -- it could have such a dramatic effect under IFRS 4, it's much more, I'm going to call it, sensible under IFRS 17, does that change your perspective on making changes to those assumptions? .

現在，因為它會在所有領域加班，核心收益、淨收入、賬面價值、LICAT，這是否會改變您對更改假設的看法，因為它是——它可能會在 IFRS 下產生如此巨大的影響4，更重要的是，我將稱之為，在 IFRS 17 下是明智的，這是否會改變您對更改這些假設的看法？ .

It -- I think it changes the amount of attention it gets in the spotlight because the capitalized impacts could be quite large, as you've seen from our sensitivities. But in terms of the rigor that we apply those assumptions are important for pricing, they're important for setting the right expectations for projections of earnings and for embedded value. And it will continue to get the same level of rigor and attention from Scott's group and my group.

它——我認為它改變了它在聚光燈下獲得的關注度，因為資本化的影響可能非常大，正如你從我們的敏感性中看到的那樣。但就我們應用這些假設的嚴謹性而言，這些假設對定價很重要，它們對於為收益預測和內含價值設定正確的預期也很重要。它將繼續從 Scott 的團隊和我的團隊那裡得到同樣程度的嚴謹和關注。

And you saw in the -- in Phil's prepared remarks that over the last 18 years since the acquisition, we've been bang on effectively just a little higher than the current assumptions. So it will continue to get the same focus, but probably less of a spotlight.

你在 Phil 準備好的評論中看到，自收購以來的過去 18 年裡，我們一直在有效地比目前的假設高一點。因此它將繼續獲得同樣的關注，但可能不會那麼引人注目。

The next question is from Lemar Persaud from Cormark Securities.

下一個問題來自 Cormark Securities 的 Lemar Persaud。

I'll be really quick because most of my questions have been asked and answered. But just starting off here, I want to come back to Paul and Tom's questioning on earnings on surplus. So I just want to be clear here bottom line. Are you guys suggesting that this quarter is over $300 million in earnings on surplus is indicative of what we should expect moving forward or perhaps even some upside from that number from higher rates?

我會很快，因為我的大部分問題都已被提出並得到解答。但是從這裡開始，我想回到保羅和湯姆對盈餘收益的質疑。所以我只想在這裡明確底線。你們是不是在暗示本季度超過 3 億美元的盈餘表明我們應該期待未來的發展，或者甚至可能從更高的利率中獲得一些上行空間？

Thanks, Lemar, for the question. This is Phil. I think what we're seeing this quarter is a reasonable baseline. The benefits that are included this quarter from the seed capital and available-for-sale equity gains are at the higher end of our typical range. In fact, just over the higher end of a typical range, but only by about $10 million post tax. As I said earlier, the main benefit is actually the impact of higher interest rates, which is showing through on our fixed income portfolio within surplus.

謝謝 Lemar 提出這個問題。這是菲爾。我認為我們在本季度看到的是一個合理的基線。本季度從種子資本和可供出售股權收益中獲得的收益處於我們典型範圍的較高端。事實上，剛好超過典型範圍的高端，但稅後僅高出約 1000 萬美元。正如我之前所說，主要好處實際上是更高利率的影響，這體現在我們盈餘的固定收益投資組合上。

And when we break that down as to what's driving that increase in the fixed income yield, there are a couple of things. One is the impact of higher rates on the shorter-term instruments that we include in that portfolio, but then also the impact of trading within the portfolio. And Roy earlier referenced $170 million a pretax of benefit that we have seen in 2022 from higher rates. So that's the benefit through the year on our interest on surplus -- or the fixed income element of our earnings on surplus.

當我們分析是什麼推動了固定收益收益率的增長時，有幾件事。一是利率上升對我們包含在該投資組合中的短期工具的影響，還有投資組合內交易的影響。羅伊早些時候提到了我們在 2022 年從更高的利率中看到的 1.7 億美元的稅前收益。這就是我們的盈餘利息或我們盈餘收益的固定收益部分的全年收益。

About $80 million of that $170 million was coming from the impacts of higher rates on the shorter-term instruments. And then $120 million of it was coming from trading longer-term instruments, therefore, locking in a higher yield. And offsetting that was a slight increase naturally in the cost of debt in a higher interest rate environment, and that all nets off to the $170 million pretax that Roy referenced.

在這 1.7 億美元中，約有 8000 萬美元來自較高利率對短期工具的影響。然後其中 1.2 億美元來自交易長期工具，因此鎖定了更高的收益率。在高利率環境下，債務成本自然會略有增加，而這一切都抵消了羅伊提到的 1.7 億美元稅前成本。

Okay. Great. And then just my second question here. You guys talk about how Manulife has returned a significant amount of capital to shareholders over time. I just want to try this one again because I think it's come up in the past. How should we think about excess capital for deployment under IFRS 17, maybe in terms of dollars and directionally, is it higher than under IFRS 4? I know you guys had referenced the $20 billion over the supervisory target. But presumably, not all of that is deployable. So how should we think about that?

好的。偉大的。然後是我的第二個問題。你們談論宏利如何隨著時間的推移向股東返還大量資本。我只想再試一次，因為我認為它已經出現在過去了。我們應該如何考慮根據 IFRS 17 部署的超額資本，也許就美元和方向而言，它是否高於 IFRS 4？我知道你們提到了超過監管目標的 200 億美元。但據推測，並非所有這些都是可部署的。那麼我們應該如何考慮呢？

Yes. So Lemar, a couple of thoughts. I mean, again, I would just go back to my earlier point, and that is that we're clearly in a very strong capital position. This has been a big focus for the company over the last 5 years. We've freed up $9 billion worth of capital, and that's put us in a position of strength, which has given us a lot of flexibility and optionality, which is why we've deployed capital, not only organically but inorganically as well as against dividend increases and share buybacks.

是的。所以勒馬爾，有幾個想法。我的意思是，再一次，我只想回到我之前的觀點，那就是我們顯然處於非常強大的資本狀況。在過去的 5 年裡，這一直是該公司的一大重點。我們已經釋放了價值 90 億美元的資本，這使我們處於優勢地位，這給了我們很大的靈活性和選擇性，這就是為什麼我們部署了資本，不僅是有機的，而且是無機的，以及反對股息增加和股票回購。

Obviously, as we transition to IFRS 17, we've been closely looking at what that means to our LICAT ratios and our surplus. And as we've shared in our presentation, we see that our LICAT ratio, based on rates as at the end of the year, appear to be -- putting us in a position where we'll have a higher LICAT ratio -- slightly higher LICAT ratio of a couple of percentage points.

顯然，在我們過渡到 IFRS 17 時，我們一直在密切關注這對我們的 LICAT 比率和盈餘意味著什麼。正如我們在演示文稿中分享的那樣，我們看到我們的 LICAT 比率，基於年底的利率，似乎 - 使我們處於一個更高的 LICAT 比率的位置 - 略微LICAT 比率高幾個百分點。

So we're not really going to share much more than that at this point. I'd sort of hold out until we are able to really share much more details at our next earnings call on more data on that front.

所以在這一點上我們真的不會分享更多。在我們能夠在下一次財報電話會議上就這方面的更多數據真正分享更多細節之前，我會堅持下去。

The next question is from Nigel D'Souza from Veritas Investment Research.

下一個問題來自 Veritas Investment Research 的 Nigel D'Souza。

I wanted to circle back on Asia and get a better sense of the underlying trends there. When I look at the last 4 quarters, premiums have just lowered, but it looks like that's offset by higher profitability. I was wondering if you could speak to how much of the trend we see in 2023, you could attribute to mobility restrictions, how much you attribute to sentiment from market volatility and economic uncertainty? And how much you attribute to just changes in product mix? And how do you see those factors spinning out in 2023?

我想回到亞洲，更好地了解那裡的潛在趨勢。當我回顧過去 4 個季度時，保費剛剛下降，但這似乎被更高的盈利能力所抵消。我想知道您能否談談我們在 2023 年看到的趨勢有多少可以歸因於流動性限制，有多少歸因於市場波動和經濟不確定性帶來的情緒？您在多大程度上歸因於產品組合的變化？您如何看待這些因素在 2023 年逐漸消失？

Nigel, thanks for the question. I think it's all of those things. I mean apportioning is not necessarily easy to do. But I would say predominantly what's impacted our results in Asia over the course of 2022 was the extended or lingering COVID containment measures in China and Hong Kong. These are both core businesses for us. And I think we saw those containment measures linger on well into 2022 in both Hong Kong and China. And that impacted consumer sentiment, economic growth and further constrained our growth opportunity in those markets in the year.

奈傑爾，謝謝你的提問。我認為這就是所有這些。我的意思是分配不一定容易做到。但我要說的是，影響我們 2022 年亞洲業績的主要因素是中國和香港延長或揮之不去的 COVID 遏制措施。這些都是我們的核心業務。我認為我們看到這些遏制措施在香港和中國大陸一直持續到 2022 年。這影響了消費者信心、經濟增長，並進一步限制了我們當年在這些市場的增長機會。

Generally, though, I'd say that we did -- through our focus on execution and resilience, we were able to post, as you know, year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter core earnings growth in the fourth quarter, despite the uneven kind of post-pandemic recovery there. Underpinning that momentum was Hong Kong, where we saw quarter-on-quarter improvement in all key metrics in the fourth quarter; APE, core earnings and NBV. Japan continues its terrific turnaround, delivering high double-digit growth in core earnings quarter-on-quarter and for the full year.

不過，總的來說，我想說我們做到了——通過我們對執行力和彈性的關注，我們能夠發布，如你所知，第四季度核心收入同比和環比增長，儘管那裡的大流行後恢復參差不齊。支撐這一勢頭的是香港，我們看到第四季度所有關鍵指標都出現了環比改善； APE、核心收益和 NBV。日本繼續其驚人的好轉，核心收入環比和全年實現兩位數的高增長。

And the Asia Other grouping, we delivered a robust core earnings growth result also. So just to circle back and summarize, I think it very much -- the constraints last year were driven by sentiment -- external factor sentiment, capital market volatility And so far as product mix is concerned, probably only in China, that was a relevant factor where you can see our core earnings and NBV results in China. Whilst we've got some resilience coming through and we registered 4% growth in APE for the full year in China, which was extraordinary given the difficulties across the economy, what constrained us in terms of product mix were some one-off changes to the regulatory environment around critical illness products.

在亞洲其他地區，我們也實現了強勁的核心收益增長。所以回過頭來總結一下，我認為非常重要——去年的限制是由情緒驅動的——外部因素情緒、資本市場波動就產品組合而言，可能只有在中國，這是一個相關的問題您可以在其中查看我們在中國的核心收益和新業務價值結果的因素。雖然我們有一些韌性，我們在中國全年的 APE 增長了 4%，考慮到整個經濟的困難，這是非同尋常的，但在產品組合方面限制我們的是一些一次性的變化重大疾病產品的監管環境。

Key point there is those changes are probably good for the long term of the industry in terms of sustainability in China. They do not preclude us from undertaking margin enhancement. And indeed, that's underway for us, and we feel quite optimistic about that in the first quarter and the first half of 2023. Thanks, Nigel.

關鍵在於，就中國的可持續性而言，這些變化可能對行業的長期發展有利。它們並不妨礙我們提高利潤率。事實上，這對我們來說正在進行中，我們對 2023 年第一季度和上半年的情況感到非常樂觀。謝謝，奈傑爾。

I might just add a couple of points. '22 was a challenging year for Asia, specifically as it relates to COVID with the restrictions that Damien referenced and referred to. And we saw in North America, Canada and the U.S., actually more of a normalization, a return to normal from a sales perspective as it relates to COVID. There are clearly still some lingering impacts. But we had really strong growth from a sales perspective in North America with 25% and 18% NBV growth, respectively.

我可能只是補充幾點。 ‘22 年對亞洲來說是充滿挑戰的一年，特別是因為它與 COVID 以及 Damien 提到的限制有關。我們在北美、加拿大和美國看到，實際上更多的是正常化，從與 COVID 相關的銷售角度來看，恢復正常。顯然仍有一些揮之不去的影響。但從北美的銷售角度來看，我們的增長非常強勁，新業務價值分別增長了 25% 和 18%。

But dial back to '21, it was almost the opposite. In '21, we saw North America -- really significantly negatively impacted by COVID restrictions. And Asia actually did quite well there. So we did see the balance of our portfolio actually whether those environments quite well, and that was the strength of our diversity. And again, as we look to '23, we're actually quite optimistic, notwithstanding the comments that Damien mentioned around will take some time for that Zero COVID policy to really transition and unfold.

但撥回 21 年，情況幾乎相反。在 21 年，我們看到北美 - 確實受到 COVID 限制的顯著負面影響。亞洲實際上在那裡做得很好。所以我們確實看到了我們投資組合的平衡，實際上這些環境是否很好，這就是我們多樣性的優勢。再一次，當我們展望 23 年時，我們實際上非常樂觀，儘管 Damien 提到的評論需要一些時間才能讓零 COVID 政策真正過渡和展開。

But we're feeling quite optimistic about '23 being a year where we will see more of a return to normalization specifically as it relates to COVID restrictions and the impact on sentiment and therefore, on sales.

但我們對 23 年這一年感到非常樂觀，我們將看到更多的回歸正常化，特別是因為它與 COVID 限制以及對情緒和銷售的影響有關。

Okay. That's a very helpful answer. And my second question was on your LICAT sensitivity. When I look at your interest rate sensitivity disclosure, the dollar amount from a 50-basis-point increase is the same, but the percentage-point impact went down to 2 percentage points. I assume that's rounding. But I wanted to get a sense of the complexity of that portfolio. Is there a level of rates where the percentage point impact could fall to 1%? And does any of the interest rate sensitivity change under IFRS 17?

好的。這是一個非常有幫助的答案。我的第二個問題是關於您的 LICAT 敏感性。當我查看您的利率敏感度披露時，增加 50 個基點的美元金額是相同的，但百分比影響下降到 2 個百分點。我假設這是四捨五入。但我想了解一下該投資組合的複雜性。是否存在百分比影響可能降至 1% 的利率水平？ IFRS 17 下的利率敏感度是否有變化？

Yes. Thanks, Nigel. It's Steve. And you got that right, that what we've seen is some complexity here. As rates have risen, we've seen less sensitivity in the LICAT ratio under IFRS 4. And that same phenomenon will be there under IFRS 17. But as Phil pointed out earlier, overall, the LICAT ratio under IFRS 17 will be less sensitive to interest rates, which we view as a positive. It increases the stability. So we'll see that sensitivity drop further under IFRS 17. Thanks.

是的。謝謝，奈傑爾。是史蒂夫。你沒看錯，我們在這裡看到的是一些複雜性。隨著利率上升，我們發現 IFRS 4 下 LICAT 比率的敏感性降低。在 IFRS 17 下也會出現同樣的現象。但正如 Phil 早些時候指出的那樣，總體而言，IFRS 17 下的 LICAT 比率將不太敏感利率，我們認為這是積極的。它增加了穩定性。因此，我們將看到 IFRS 17 下的敏感性進一步下降。謝謝。

There are no further questions registered at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to you, Mr. Ko.

目前沒有其他問題登記。我想把電話轉給你，Ko 先生。

Thank you, operator. We'll be available after the call if there are any follow-up questions. Have a good day, everyone.

謝謝你，運營商。如果有任何後續問題，我們將在通話後提供服務。祝大家有美好的一天。

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

謝謝。會議現已結束。請此時斷開您的線路，我們感謝您的參與。