Manulife Financial Corp (MFC) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Manulife Financial Corporation third quarter 2025 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) And the conference call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

    感謝您的耐心等待。這是會議接線員。歡迎參加宏利金融集團2025年第三季業績電話會議。(操作員指示)本次電話會議正在錄音。(操作說明)

  • I'd now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Hung Ko, Global Head of Treasury and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我將把會議交給全球財務及投資者關係主管洪高先生。請繼續。

  • Hung Ko - VP, Global Head of Treasury and Investor Relations

    Hung Ko - VP, Global Head of Treasury and Investor Relations

  • Thank you. Welcome to Manulife's earnings conference call to discuss our third quarter 2025 financial and operating results as well as our refreshed strategy that was announced yesterday afternoon. Our earnings materials, including webcast slides for today's call, are available in the Investor Relations section of our website at manulife.com. In addition, I would like to note that a video recording of our refreshed strategy presentation and the related materials are also available in the same section of our website.

    謝謝。歡迎參加宏利金融的獲利電話會議,我們將討論2025年第三季的財務和營運業績,以及我們昨天下午宣布的更新策略。我們的獲利報告資料,包括今天電話會議的網路直播幻燈片,都可以在我們網站 manulife.com 的「投資者關係」欄位中找到。此外,我還想指出,我們更新後的策略性簡報影片及相關資料也已發佈在網站的同一欄位中。

  • Before we start, please refer to slide 2 for a caution on forward-looking statements and slide 33 for a note on the non-GAAP and other financial measures used in this presentation. Please note that certain material factors or assumptions are applied in making forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially from what is stated.

    在開始之前,請參閱第 2 頁投影片,以了解有關前瞻性陳述的注意事項,並參閱第 33 頁投影片,以了解有關本簡報中使用的非 GAAP 和其他財務指標的說明。請注意,在做出前瞻性陳述時,會應用某些重要因素或假設,實際結果可能與所述內容有重大差異。

  • Turning to slide 4. We'll begin today's presentation with Phil Witherington, our President and Chief Executive Officer, who will provide a highlight of our third quarter 2025 results and a strategic update, including an overview of our refreshed strategy. Following Phil, Colin Simpson, our Chief Financial Officer, will discuss the company's financial and operating results in more detail. After their prepared remarks, we will move to the live Q&A portion of the call.

    翻到第4張投影片。今天,我們將首先由總裁兼執行長 Phil Witherington 進行演講,他將重點介紹我們 2025 年第三季的業績和策略更新,包括對我們更新後的策略的概述。菲爾之後,我們的財務長科林辛普森將更詳細地討論公司的財務和營運表現。在他們發言結束後,我們將進入電話會議的現場問答環節。

  • With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Phil.

    接下來,我想把電話交給菲爾。

  • Philip Witherington - President & CEO

    Philip Witherington - President & CEO

  • Thanks, Hung, and thank you everyone for joining us today. Before I start, I'd like to thank Marc Costantini, who's with us on the call today, for his outstanding contributions to Manulife throughout his career at the company and wish him well in the next chapter of his career. Marc's 2 stints with Manulife total more than 25 years. And in his most recent role as Global Head of Inforce Management, he had an immense impact in a short period of time, including the completion of several monumental reinsurance transactions, which unlocked significant value for shareholders. While we're sad to see him go, we know he will flourish as a CEO, and we wish him nothing but the best.

    謝謝洪,也謝謝今天所有到場的各位。在開始之前,我要感謝今天和我們一起參加電話會議的馬克·科斯坦蒂尼,感謝他在整個職業生涯中為宏利金融做出的傑出貢獻,並祝愿他在職業生涯的下一個階段一切順利。馬克在宏利金融的兩段工作經驗加起來超過 25 年。在他最近擔任全球現有保險管理主管期間,他在短時間內取得了巨大的成就,包括完成了幾項意義重大的再保險交易,為股東釋放了巨大的價值。雖然我們很遺憾他要離開,但我們知道他作為CEO一定會取得成功,我們祝他一切順利。

  • In-force Management has been embedded as a capability in our organization, and it will remain an important enabler of our commercial success. Naveed Irshad, President and CEO of Manulife Canada, has taken on an expanded role and assumed responsibility for In-force Management and Reinsurance globally, while continuing to lead the Canada segment.

    有效資產管理已融入我們組織的一項能力,並將繼續成為我們商業成功的重要推動因素。宏利加拿大總裁兼執行長納維德·伊爾沙德 (Naveed Irshad) 承擔了更廣泛的職責,負責全球現有保單管理和再保險業務,同時繼續領導加拿大業務。

  • Shifting back to the purpose of today's call, yesterday, we announced our third quarter 2025 financial results. At the same time, we unveiled our refreshed enterprise strategy, which builds on our strengths, is growth focused, and is anchored in our ambition to be the number one choice for customers.

    回到今天電話會議的主題,昨天我們公佈了 2025 年第三季的財務表現。同時,我們發布了更新的企業策略,該策略以我們的優勢為基礎,以成長為重點,並以成為客戶首選為目標。

  • Materials related to our refreshed strategy, including a video, are available in the Investor Relations section of our website, but I want to highlight a few key takeaways. To deliver on our ambition, drive sustainable growth for the long term, and build on our total shareholder return momentum, we're pleased to introduce new and elevated strategic priorities.

    與我們更新後的策略相關的資料,包括一段視頻,可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到,但我想重點強調幾個關鍵要點。為了實現我們的目標,推動長期永續成長,並鞏固股東總回報的勢頭,我們很高興推出新的、更高層次的策略重點。

  • Maintaining a diversified and balanced portfolio is important to us, as it provides resilience and access to multiple sources of growth, without overreliance on any single market.

    對我們來說,維持多元化和均衡的投資組合非常重要,因為它能提供韌性,並能獲得多種成長來源,而不會過度依賴任何單一市場。

  • We continue to be well positioned to capture the exceptional growth opportunities across Asia and Global WAM, and I'm pleased to share that we have reached an agreement with Mahindra, a leading conglomerate and consumer brand in India, to form a joint venture to enter the India insurance market, subject to regulatory approvals. Mahindra is an incredibly strong and trusted partner with whom we have an existing asset management relationship, and I'm excited about expanding our partnership further. Our continued focus on Asia and Global WAM will be accompanied by deliberate investments to enhance and strengthen our leadership position in our home market and maintain a scaled presence in the US, which remains the largest insurance market and the largest economy in the world.

    我們依然處於有利地位,能夠抓住亞洲和全球WAM地區非凡的成長機會。我很高興地宣布,我們已與印度領先的綜合企業和消費品牌 Mahindra 達成協議,成立一家合資企業,進軍印度保險市場,但需獲得監管部門的批准。Mahindra 是一家實力雄厚、值得信賴的合作夥伴,我們與他們之間已有資產管理合作關係,我很高興能夠進一步拓展我們的合作關係。我們將繼續專注於亞洲和全球WAM市場,同時進行有計劃的投資,以增強和鞏固我們在本土市場的領導地位,並在美國保持規模化的業務。美國仍然是世界上最大的保險市場和最大的經濟體。

  • We will also leverage our early leadership in AI to become a truly AI-powered organization, and we will utilize our strengths in product, digital innovation and partnerships to become the most trusted partner for our customers' health, wealth and financial wellbeing. These efforts will be further enabled through superior distribution, making it easier for customers, agents and partners to engage with us, and of course, through our winning team and culture, which is critical to every aspect of the execution of our strategy.

    我們還將利用我們在人工智慧領域的早期領先地位,成為真正的人工智慧驅動型組織,並利用我們在產品、數位創新和合作夥伴關係方面的優勢,成為客戶在健康、財富和財務福祉方面最值得信賴的合作夥伴。這些努力將透過卓越的分銷管道進一步推動,使客戶、代理商和合作夥伴更容易與我們互動;當然,還有我們優秀的團隊和文化,這對於我們策略執行的方方面面都至關重要。

  • At our Investor Day in 2024, we announced various key performance indicators and targets, including total shareholder return, employee engagement and Net Promoter Score, which we remain focused on delivering. I am incredibly excited about this next chapter for Manulife, and am confident that executing on our strategy will further strengthen our ability to deliver on both our 2027 financial targets and sustain our growth for the next decade and beyond.

    在 2024 年的投資者日上,我們公佈了各項關鍵績效指標和目標,包括股東總回報、員工敬業度和淨推薦值,我們將繼續致力於實現這些目標。我對宏利金融的下一個篇章感到無比興奮,並堅信執行我們的策略將進一步增強我們實現 2027 年財務目標的能力,並在未來十年及更長時間內保持成長。

  • Moving on to our quarterly results on slide 7, which reflects our continued focus on execution and demonstrate the strength and diversity of our businesses. We generated strong insurance new business performance this quarter, with each insurance segment delivering growth of 15% or greater in new business CSM, providing clear evidence of our future earnings potential. While Global WAM experienced net outflows of $6.2 billion, which Colin will discuss in more detail shortly, it continued to generate positive operating leverage with margin expansion year-over-year.

    接下來是第 7 頁的季度業績報告,該報告反映了我們對執行力的持續關注,並展示了我們業務的實力和多樣性。本季度,我們的保險新業務表現強勁,每個保險業務板塊的新業務客戶成功率均增長了 15% 或以上,這清楚地證明了我們未來的盈利潛力。儘管 Global WAM 經歷了 62 億美元的淨流出(Colin 稍後將對此進行更詳細的討論),但它繼續產生積極的經營槓桿,利潤率逐年擴大。

  • From a profitability standpoint, core EPS grew 16% from the prior year supported by a record level of core earnings, reflecting strong underlying business growth in Asia, Global WAM and Canada segments, along with other factors, which Colin will talk about further. Our strong core earnings generation contributed to third quarter core ROE of 18.1%, demonstrating that our core ROE target of 18%-plus by 2027 is within reach, and we remain confident that we'll deliver on it.

    從獲利能力的角度來看,核心每股收益比上年增長了 16%,這得益於核心收益創歷史新高,反映了亞洲、全球 WAM 和加拿大業務部門強勁的潛在業務增長,以及其他因素,Colin 將進一步討論這些因素。我們強勁的核心獲利能力使第三季核心淨資產收益率達到 18.1%,這表明我們到 2027 年實現 18% 以上的核心淨資產收益率目標是可以實現的,我們仍然有信心實現這一目標。

  • Our balance sheet remains strong with a LICAT ratio of 138% and a leverage ratio of 22.7%. And we generated another quarter of book value per share growth, with an increase of 7% from the prior year, while continuing to return a significant amount of capital to shareholders.

    我們的資產負債表依然穩健,LICAT 比率為 138%,槓桿比率為 22.7%。我們實現了每股帳面價值的另一個季度成長,比上年增長了 7%,同時繼續向股東返還了大量資本。

  • On to slide 8, I'd like to dive a little deeper into the recent performance of our high-potential businesses, particularly Asia and Global WAM as they remain critical elements of our refreshed enterprise strategy. Over the past several years, both segments demonstrated strong track records of generating consistent growth and resilience through a volatile operating environment.

    接下來是第 8 張投影片,我想更深入地探討我們高潛力業務的近期表現,特別是亞洲和全球 WAM 業務,因為它們仍然是我們更新後的企業策略的關鍵要素。過去幾年,這兩個業務板塊在動盪的經營環境中都展現出強勁的成長勢頭和韌性。

  • The performance from both Asia and Global WAM has meant that on a year-to-date basis, our highest potential businesses are contributing 76% of core earnings, exceeding our 2025 target of 75%.

    亞洲和全球 WAM 的出色表現意味著,今年迄今為止,我們最具潛力的業務貢獻了 76% 的核心收益,超過了我們 2025 年 75% 的目標。

  • Asia had another outstanding quarter of growth, delivering a 29% year-on-year increase in core earnings to a record level. Our NBV margin also remained resilient, improving year-on-year to 39%, backed by the solid growth in new business during the quarter. In Global WAM, we also delivered a record level of core earnings, maintaining another quarter of strong growth and this was our eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit pre-tax growth from the prior year. And our focus on disciplined growth, with proactive expense management, enabled us to continue to generate positive operating leverage and steadily increase our core EBITDA margin, which expanded by 310 basis points year-on-year to 30.9% this quarter.

    亞洲又迎來了一個出色的季度成長,核心收益年增 29%,創歷史新高。我們的淨帳面利潤率也保持了韌性,年增至 39%,這得益於本季度新業務的穩健增長。在全球 WAM 業務方面,我們也實現了創紀錄的核心收益,保持了另一個季度的強勁增長,這也是我們連續第八個季度實現比上一年兩位數的稅前增長。我們專注於穩健成長,積極進行費用管理,使我們能夠繼續產生積極的經營槓桿,並穩步提高核心 EBITDA 利潤率,本季同比增長 310 個基點,達到 30.9%。

  • These are great results. And as I reflect on the future and what comes next, I'm confident that our refreshed strategy, supported by clear priorities, will position us to deliver sustainable growth and achieve our new ambition to be the number one choice for customers.

    這是非常好的結果。展望未來,展望未來,我相信,在明確的優先事項的支持下,我們更新後的策略將使我們能夠實現永續成長,並實現成為客戶首選的新目標。

  • With that, I'll hand it over to Colin to discuss our quarterly results in more detail. Colin?

    接下來,我將把發言權交給科林,讓他更詳細地討論我們的季度表現。科林?

  • Colin Simpson - Chief Financial Officer

    Colin Simpson - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Phil. The third quarter was indeed a strong quarter for Manulife, where we continue to demonstrate the ongoing strength, quality and resilience of our business. Let's begin on slide 10, where we talk about our growth in the quarter. The momentum in our insurance new business performance continued in the third quarter. Our APE sales increased 8% from the prior year, with strong contributions from our North American businesses. This resulted in continued growth in our value metrics with 25% and 11% growth in new business CSM and new business value, respectively.

    謝謝你,菲爾。第三季對宏利金融來說的確是一個強勁的季度,我們繼續展現了我們業務的持續實力、品質和韌性。讓我們從第 10 張投影片開始,這裡我們討論了本季的成長情況。第三季度,我們的保險新業務業績持續保持成長動能。我們的 APE 銷售額比上年增長了 8%,其中北美業務貢獻強勁。這使得我們的價值指標持續成長,新業務客戶成功率和新業務價值分別成長了 25% 和 11%。

  • Growth in new business CSM was strong, with each insurance segment delivering growth of 15% or greater compared to the prior year quarter. In fact, our total new business CSM increased over 20% year-over-year for the fifth consecutive quarter, further highlighting the strength of our diversified franchise and providing an encouraging read-through to the future earnings potential of each business. Headwinds in North American Retail and our US Retirement channel led to net outflows of $6.2 billion for Global WAM following six consecutive quarters of positive net flows. In our Retail business, this was primarily due to continued pressure in the intermediary and wealth channels, while the headwinds in our US Retirement business were anticipated as elevated markets resulted in higher absolute level of participant withdrawals.

    新業務 CSM 成長強勁,每個保險細分市場與上一季相比均實現了 15% 或更高的成長。事實上,我們的新業務總 CSM 連續第五個季度同比增長超過 20%,進一步凸顯了我們多元化特許經營的實力,並為每項業務未來的盈利潛力提供了令人鼓舞的預兆。北美零售業和美國退休管道的逆風導致全球財富管理業務在連續六個季度實現正淨流入後出現 62 億美元的淨流出。在我們的零售業務中,這主要是由於中介和財富管道持續面臨壓力,而我們美國退休業務的不利因素也在預料之中,因為市場高企導致參與者提款的絕對水平更高。

  • Moving on to slide 11, which summarizes the main earnings drivers when compared to the same period last year.

    接下來是第 11 張投影片,其中總結了與去年同期相比的主要獲利驅動因素。

  • We continue to see growth in our insurance businesses in Asia and Canada, which contributed to a higher insurance service result. We also saw a net favorable impact from the annual actuarial review of methods and assumptions, or “basis change”, during the quarter. Although this was partially offset by unfavorable claims experience in the US, I would note that US insurance experience improved from the previous quarter, even though claims severity remains somewhat elevated on a small number of policies, in contrast with last year's favorable experience.

    我們在亞洲和加拿大的保險業務持續成長,促成了保險服務績效的提升。我們也看到,本季年度精算方法和假設審查(或「基礎變更」)產生了淨有利影響。儘管美國不利的理賠情況部分抵消了這一利好,但我注意到,與去年良好的理賠情況相比,美國保險業的狀況較上一季度有所改善,儘管少數保單的理賠嚴重程度仍然較高。

  • Moving down on the DOE table, you'll note a year-over-year improvement in our net investment result, mainly due to a release in the expected credit loss or “ECL” provision driven by updates to our parameters and models, compared with an increase in the provision in the prior year.

    繼續向下看 DOE 表格,你會注意到我們的淨投資結果同比有所改善,這主要是由於預期信用損失或 ECL 撥備的釋放,而這又是由我們的參數和模型的更新所驅動的,與上一年撥備的增加相比。

  • Note that we continue to expect an ECL charge of $30 million to $50 million per quarter on average, and year-to-date, the increase in ECL is $86 million post tax. Excluding the impact of the ECL, our core earnings growth would have been 6% compared with the prior year.

    請注意,我們仍然預計平均每季將產生 3,000 萬美元至 5,000 萬美元的 ECL 費用,而今年迄今,稅後 ECL 增加額為 8,600 萬美元。剔除預期信用損失的影響,我們的核心獲利成長率將比上年成長 6%。

  • Global WAM continues to be a significant contributor to our core earnings and reported a 19% growth in pre-tax core earnings this quarter. You'll notice the lower income tax amount despite the growth in our core earnings. This is mainly driven by an adjustment to our year-to-date withholding tax accrual, reflecting the use of our internal funding for the Comvest acquisition. Finally, I would also add that the most recent US reinsurance transaction with RGA reduced our core earnings by $12 million across multiple lines of the DOE.

    全球 WAM 業務繼續為我們的核心收益做出重大貢獻,本季稅前核心收益成長了 19%。你會注意到,儘管我們的核心獲利成長了,但所得稅額卻降低了。這主要是由於我們調整了年初至今的預扣稅計提,反映了我們使用內部資金收購 Comvest 的情況。最後,我還想補充一點,最近與 RGA 進行的美國再保險交易使我們在能源部多個業務線的核心收益減少了 1200 萬美元。

  • Turning to slide 12. Core EPS increased 16% from the prior year, reflecting the strong double-digit growth in core earnings as well as the impact of share buybacks. In fact, even after adjusting for ECL, we saw strong growth of 11%. We reported $1.8 billion of net income this quarter, which reflects neutral market experience where a $291 million gain from higher-than-expected public equity returns was offset by a charge of $289 million in our ALDA portfolio from lower-than-expected returns. Our ALDA performance was primarily impacted by lower-than-expected returns on private equity and commercial real estate investments as well as our timber assets, reflecting a recent decline in commodity prices.

    翻到第12張投影片。核心每股收益較上年增長 16%,反映了核心收益強勁的兩位數增長以及股票回購的影響。事實上,即使調整了預期信用損失,我們也看到了 11% 的強勁成長。本季我們報告淨收入為 18 億美元,這反映了中性的市場表現,其中高於預期的公開股票回報帶來的 2.91 億美元收益被低於預期的 ALDA 投資組合回報帶來的 2.89 億美元支出所抵消。我們的 ALDA 業績主要受到私募股權和商業房地產投資以及木材資產收益低於預期的影響,這反映了近期大宗商品價格的下跌。

  • During the quarter, we also completed our annual basis change, which included our comprehensive triennial review of our US long-term care business or “LTC”. The basis change resulted in a net favorable impact of a $605 million decrease in overall pre-tax fulfillment cash flows, which comprised a $1.1 billion increase in CSM partially offset by a modest decrease in net income of $216 million post tax, as well as a small impact to OCI. I would also note that the overall impact of the LTC study was slightly favorable, largely driven by favorable re-rate experience and assumed future premium rate increases as well as updates to reflect higher terminations, partially offset by higher utilization of benefits given the higher cost of care. The premium increases included amounts tied to future asks as well as approvals in excess of our prior assumptions, illustrating our conservatism in embedding these into our reserves.

    本季度,我們也完成了年度基準變更,其中包括我們對美國長期照護業務或「照護」三年一次的全面審查。基準變化導致稅前整體履行現金流量淨有利減少了 6.05 億美元,其中包括 CSM 增加 11 億美元,部分被稅後淨收入小幅減少 2.16 億美元所抵消,以及對其他綜合收益 (OCI) 的輕微影響。我還想指出,長期照護研究的總體影響略微有利,這主要是由於有利的重新評級經驗和預期的未來保費上漲以及反映更高終止率的更新,但部分被更高的護理成本導致的福利使用率提高所抵消。保費上漲包括與未來需求相關的金額以及超出我們先前假設的批准金額,這反映了我們在將這些金額納入儲備金方面的保守態度。

  • It is important to note the favorable net impact from the basis change further validates the prudence of our reserves. We reported a modest favorable impact on core earnings this quarter, and we also expect a similarly modest positive impact on core earnings going forward. More information on the basis change is available in the appendix of this presentation.

    值得注意的是,基差變化帶來的有利淨影響進一步驗證了我們儲備的審慎性。本季度我們報告稱,核心收益受到了輕微的正面影響,我們也預計未來核心收益將受到類似的輕微正面影響。有關基差變更的更多信息,請參閱本簡報的附錄。

  • Moving to the segment results. We'll start with Asia on slide 13, where we generated solid growth across all new business metrics despite a very strong prior year comparable. APE sales increased 5% from the prior year, led by strong growth in Asia Other.

    接下來查看細分市場結果。我們將從第 13 頁的亞洲市場開始,儘管去年同期業績非常強勁,但我們在所有新業務指標方面都實現了穩健成長。APE銷售額較前一年成長5%,其中亞洲其他地區的強勁成長帶動了整體成長。

  • While Hong Kong sales declined year-on-year compared to a very strong prior year quarter, we generated sequential growth of 4%. The overall increase in sales contributed to solid growth in value metrics, with new business CSM and new business value increasing 18% and 7%, respectively. All of this, together with improved product mix, drove NBV margin expansion from the prior year of 2.5-percentage-points to 39%. Asia core earnings also delivered another strong quarter of strong year-on-year growth, increasing 29% as we benefited from continued business growth momentum, the net favorable impact of basis change, and improved insurance experience, as well as a release in the ECL provision compared with an increase in the prior year quarter.

    儘管香港銷售額年減,與去年同期強勁的業績相比有所下滑,但我們實現了 4% 的環比增長。整體銷售額的成長帶動了價值指標的穩健成長,其中新業務客戶成功率和新業務價值分別成長了 18% 和 7%。所有這些因素,加上產品組合的改善,推動 NBV 利潤率從前一年的 2.5 個百分點成長到 39%。亞洲核心獲利也實現了強勁的季度同比增長,增幅達 29%,這得益於業務持續增長勢頭、基差變動的淨有利影響、保險經驗的改善,以及與上年同期相比,預期信用損失準備金的釋放。

  • Over to Global WAM on slide 14. Global WAM continued to build on its growth momentum, delivering record-level core earnings with a solid 9% increase year-on-year. This was again supported by higher average AUMA and higher performance fees, as well as continued expense discipline, partially offset by lower favorable tax true-ups and tax benefits.

    接下來請看第 14 張投影片,了解全球 WAM。Global WAM 持續維持成長勢頭,核心收益創歷史新高,較去年同期成長 9%。這再次得到了平均資產管理規模 (AUMA) 和業績費上漲的支持,以及持續的費用控制,但部分被較低的優惠稅收調整和稅收優惠所抵消。

  • On a pre-tax basis, we achieved our eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year growth, delivering a 19% increase in the third quarter. Net flows were challenged this quarter, resulting in net outflows of $6.2 billion. Our Retail business saw net outflows of $3.9 billion related to our North American intermediary and wealth channels, followed by net outflows of $1.6 billion in our Retirement business. Here, we saw higher outflows due to market appreciation, as people generally had higher account balances, which resulted in ordinary course withdrawals also being higher. Our Institutional business also saw modest net outflows of $0.7 billion and with the close of our third infrastructure fund in the quarter, we expect this to be a positive contributor to flows as money is deployed over the course of next year.

    以稅前利潤計算,我們連續第八個季度實現了兩位數的同比增長,第三季度增長了 19%。本季淨資金流入受到挑戰,導致淨流出62億美元。我們的零售業務淨流出資金達 39 億美元,主要來自北美中介和財富管道;其次是退休業務淨流出資金達 16 億美元。在這裡,由於市場升值,我們看到資金流出量增加,因為人們的帳戶餘額普遍較高,導致正常課程提款量也較高。我們的機構業務也出現了 0.7 億美元的淨流出,隨著本季第三支基礎設施基金的完成,我們預計這將對資金流動做出積極貢獻,因為資金將在明年期間部署。

  • Despite the challenges in our net flows, we delivered another quarter of positive operating leverage with core EBITDA margin of 30.9%, which expanded 310 basis points from the prior year, or 80 basis points sequentially, backed by our continued proactive expense management. With regards to eMPF, I can confirm we officially commenced our onboarding to the new platform in Hong Kong on November 6th and thus expect to reflect an impact to core earnings in our Retirement business starting in the fourth quarter.

    儘管淨流量面臨挑戰,但我們仍實現了又一個季度的積極經營槓桿,核心 EBITDA 利潤率為 30.9%,比上年增長了 310 個基點,環比增長了 80 個基點,這得益於我們持續積極的費用管理。關於電子強積金(eMPF),我可以確認我們已於11月6日在香港正式開始使用新平台,因此預計從第四季度開始,這將對我們的退休業務核心收益產生影響。

  • Next, let's head over to Canada on slide 15, where we delivered another quarter of solid results. APE sales increased 9% from the prior year, reflecting continued double-digit growth in our Individual Insurance business, primarily due to higher par sales. Our Individual Insurance business was the key contributor to a strong new business CSM growth of 15% year-on-year as our Group Insurance business does not generate CSM.

    接下來,讓我們來看看第 15 張幻燈片中的加拿大,我們在那裡又取得了一個季度穩健的業績。APE 銷售額比上年增長 9%,反映出我們的個人保險業務持續保持兩位數成長,這主要是由於單價銷售額的提高。由於團體保險業務不產生 CSM,因此我們的個人保險業務是新業務 CSM 年成長 15% 的主要貢獻者。

  • We also delivered a solid 4% year-over-year growth in core earnings, driven by higher investment spreads as well as continued growth in our Group Insurance business and favorable insurance experience in Individual Insurance. The basis change provided additional uplift, but these drivers were partially offset by less favorable insurance experience in Group Insurance.

    在投資利差擴大、團體保險業務持續成長以及個人保險業務良好績效的推動下,我們的核心收益也實現了 4% 的年成長。基數變化帶來了額外的提振,但這些因素被團體保險業務中不太有利的保險經驗部分抵消。

  • Lastly, our US segment's results on slide 16. In the US, we delivered another quarter of strong APE sales growth of 51%, fueled by higher broad-based demand for our suite of products. This momentum led to more than doubling of our new business CSM and a 53% increase in new business value. Core earnings decreased 20% year-on-year, primarily due to unfavorable life insurance claims experience this quarter compared with favorable experience a year ago, along with lower expected investment earnings.

    最後,第 16 頁是我們美國業務部門的業績。在美國,由於市場對我們全系列產品的廣泛需求增加,我們的 APE 銷售額又實現了強勁成長,達到 51%。這一勢頭使我們的新業務客戶成功率提高了一倍多,新業務價值提高了 53%。核心收益較去年同期下降 20%,主要原因是本季人壽保險理賠情況不利於去年同期,以及預期投資收益下降。

  • These impacts were partially offset by a release in the ECL provision compared with an increase in the prior year as well as favorable lapse experience in our Life business. While large claims variability presented challenges, the fundamentals of our US business remain strong and position us well for steady earnings in the long term. Our confidence is reinforced by the sequential improvement in core earnings and the continued strong growth in our new business metrics this quarter, which bodes well for our future earnings in the segment. Looking beyond our earnings, it's worth noting our overall LTC insurance experience was once again modestly positive, including favorable incidents reported in the CSM.

    這些影響部分被預期信用損失準備金的釋放(與前一年相比有所增加)以及我們人壽業務的有利失效經驗所抵消。雖然大額索賠的波動帶來了挑戰,但我們美國業務的基本面依然強勁,這使我們能夠在長期內實現穩定的盈利。本季核心獲利環比改善,新業務指標持續強勁成長,增強了我們的信心,也預示著該業務板塊未來的獲利前景良好。除了我們的收益之外,值得注意的是,我們的整體長期照護保險經驗再次略微積極,包括 CSM 中報告的有利事件。

  • Bringing you to our book value on slide 17. Even after returning nearly $4 billion of capital to shareholders year-to-date through dividends and share buybacks, we continue to grow our adjusted book value per share which was up 12% from the prior year quarter to $38.22. On a stand-alone quarter basis, we continue to demonstrate our strong cash generation capability and returned over $1.3 billion of capital to shareholders, including both dividends and share buybacks during the period. And as Phil mentioned in our refreshed strategy update, we expect our remittances for 2025 to be approximately $6 billion, putting us well on our way to achieving our cumulative 2027 target of at least $22 billion.

    帶您了解我們第 17 頁投影片中的帳面價值。即使今年迄今已透過分紅和股票回購向股東返還了近40億美元的資本,我們的調整後每股帳面價值仍持續增長,較上年同期增長12%至38.22美元。就本季而言,我們繼續展現出強勁的現金流生成能力,並在本季度向股東返還了超過13億美元的資本,其中包括分紅和股票回購。正如菲爾在我們更新後的策略中提到的那樣,我們預計 2025 年的匯款將達到約 60 億美元,這將使我們朝著實現 2027 年累計至少 220 億美元的目標穩步邁進。

  • Let's now move to our balance sheet on slide 18. Our LICAT ratio remained strong at 138%, providing a $26 billion buffer above the Supervisory Target Ratio. Our financial leverage ratio improved sequentially as well as year-on-year, standing at 22.7% and remaining well below our medium-term target of 25%. Together, these metrics highlight the strength and stability of our robust capital position and balance sheet, which provide ample financial flexibility to drive future growth.

    現在讓我們來看看第 18 頁的資產負債表。我們的LICAT比率維持在138%的強勁水平,比監管目標比率高出260億美元。我們的財務槓桿率環比和年比均有所改善,達到 22.7%,遠低於我們 25% 的中期目標。這些指標共同突顯了我們穩健的資本狀況和資產負債表的實力和穩定性,為推動未來成長提供了充足的財務靈活性。

  • And finally, moving to slide 19, which summarizes the progress against our 2027 and medium-term targets. I'm pleased with our overall financial performance this quarter, in particular, with record core earnings supported by our continued top-line momentum, despite some headwinds that impacted our net flows and ALDA performance. This quarter, we also generated core ROE of 18.1%, with a meaningful expansion of 1.5 percentage-points year-on-year. As Phil highlighted in our refreshed strategy update, we have a clear path to achieving our 2027 core ROE target of 18%-plus, and I'm confident in our ability to do so.

    最後,我們來看第 19 張投影片,其中總結了我們在實現 2027 年和中期目標方面的進展。我對我們本季的整體財務表現感到滿意,特別是核心收益創歷史新高,這得益於我們持續的營收成長勢頭,儘管一些不利因素影響了我們的淨流入和ALDA業績。本季度,我們的核心 ROE 也達到了 18.1%,年增了 1.5 個百分點。正如菲爾在我們更新的策略中所強調的那樣,我們有明確的路徑來實現 2027 年核心 ROE 目標 18% 以上,我對我們實現這一目標的能力充滿信心。

  • Overall, our third quarter results reflect the ongoing strength of our underlying business performance and the quality of our portfolio. And when combined with our focused execution against refreshed strategic priorities, I'm excited for the future and the opportunities that lie ahead.

    總體而言,我們第三季的業績反映了我們基本業務表現的持續強勁以及我們產品組合的品質。再加上我們針對更新後的策略重點所採取的專注執行措施,我對未來以及即將到來的機會感到興奮。

  • This concludes our prepared remarks. Before we move to the Q&A session, I would like to remind each participant to adhere to a limit of two questions, including follow-ups, and to requeue if they have additional questions. Operator, we will now open the call to questions.

    我們的發言稿到此結束。在進入問答環節之前,我想提醒每位參與者,提問次數(包括後續問題)不得超過兩個,如有其他問題,請重新排隊。接線員,現在開始接受提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • John Aiken, Jefferies.

    約翰艾肯,傑富瑞集團。

  • John Aiken - Equity Analyst

    John Aiken - Equity Analyst

  • Good morning Phil, I'm very intrigued about the venture that you announced in India. I was hoping you might be able to give us a couple of more details in terms of what type of products you think you're going to be offering. What you bring to the table, in what I believe is a very competitive marketplace? And then finally, the regulatory approval process, how long do you think that will take before you can actually open shop for business?

    菲爾,早安。我對你在印度宣布的那個計畫非常感興趣。我希望您能提供更多關於您計劃提供的產品類型的細節資訊。在競爭如此激烈的市場中,你能為公司帶來什麼?最後,監管審批流程,您認為從獲得審批到正式開業需要多長時間?

  • Philip Witherington - President & CEO

    Philip Witherington - President & CEO

  • John, this is Phil. Thanks for the question and the first question today. Certainly, the announcement we made yesterday of our intention to enter the India market through a JV with Mahindra is very exciting. We've been looking at an India market entry from an insurance perspective for many years and have been really observing the environment to wait for the right moment. And what we've seen in recent years is that the regulatory environment has moved favorably, the digital infrastructure within India has moved very favorably; there's been consistent economic growth and market maturity within the insurance sector, as well as that, there has been a notable increase in wealth across the India population, and that creates insurance needs and provides an ability to purchase insurance products.

    約翰,我是菲爾。感謝你的提問,這也是今天的第一個問題。當然,我們昨天宣布將透過與 Mahindra 成立合資企業進入印度市場的計劃,這令人非常興奮。多年來,我們一直在從保險的角度考慮進入印度市場,並一直在密切關注市場環境,等待合適的時機。近年來我們看到,監管環境朝著有利的方向發展,印度的數位基礎設施也朝著非常有利的方向發展;保險業持續增長,市場日趨成熟;此外,印度人口的財富也顯著增長,這創造了保險需求,並提供了購買保險產品的能力。

  • And, I think, a really important component of our entry strategy here is really moving with the right partner, and Mahindra, who's been our partner on the asset management side since 2020, is a fantastic partner and has not only substantial local knowledge, but a strong brand as well as a distribution infrastructure. So, in terms of some of the specific questions that you ask on what we bring to the table, we bring our global expertise in the insurance sector to this partnership. And it's not only about product development, but it's also an aspect such as risk management, which is so important to managing insurance businesses. It's too early to get into a topic such as which product will -- what the products will look like. I expect it would take in the order of 12 to 18 months to get this operation off the ground and up and running, including the regulatory approval process that you referenced, and I look forward to providing updates along the way.

    我認為,我們進入市場的策略中一個非常重要的組成部分是找到合適的合作夥伴,而自 2020 年以來一直是我們在資產管理方面的合作夥伴的 Mahindra 就是一個非常棒的合作夥伴,它不僅擁有豐富的本地知識,而且擁有強大的品牌和分銷基礎設施。所以,對於您提出的關於我們能為此次合作帶來什麼的具體問題,我們將我們在保險領域的全球專業知識帶到這次合作中。這不僅關乎產品開發,還涉及風險管理等對保險業務管理至關重要的方面。現在討論哪些產品會推出-產品會是什麼樣子-這類話題還為時過早。我預計從啟動到運營,包括您提到的監管審批流程,大約需要 12 到 18 個月的時間,我期待在此過程中向您提供最新進展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alex Scott, Barclays.

    亞歷克斯·斯科特,巴克萊銀行。

  • Alex Scott - Equity Analyst

    Alex Scott - Equity Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. I wanted to see if you could talk a little bit more about what you're seeing in some of your Asian markets and the growth has been pretty good. What's your outlook for contingent strength of sales over the next couple of years?

    嘿,早安。我想請您再詳細談談您在一些亞洲市場看到的情況,目前來看,這些市場的成長情況相當不錯。您認為未來幾年銷售額的波動性如何?

  • Steven Finch - President & CEO, Manulife Asia

    Steven Finch - President & CEO, Manulife Asia

  • Yes. Thanks, Alex. It's Steve Finch here. I can take that. Yes, as you noted, we've had some strong momentum in results in Asia as Colin covered. We saw continued solid momentum in sales growth in the quarter with our new business value metrics up 7% on NBV, 18% up on CSM, new business CSM, which bodes well for our future earnings.

    是的。謝謝你,亞歷克斯。我是史蒂夫芬奇。我可以接受。是的,正如您所指出的,正如科林所報導的,我們在亞洲的業績取得了強勁的成長勢頭。本季銷售成長勢頭強勁,新業務價值指標 NBV 成長 7%,CSM 成長 18%,新業務 CSM 成長 18%,這對我們未來的獲利來說是一個好兆頭。

  • And we've seen broad-based success across multiple markets; continued strength in the value metrics in Hong Kong. And then in Asia Other, we had a strong result in our China business, as well as continued momentum in Singapore, our Indonesia agency and as well as our bank partner in the Philippines. So, we've continued to see broad-based success. And what we see is the market fundamentals and customer demand remain strong and aligned with the strategy that Phil updated on. We're continuing to make the investments for growth, and we're well positioned to capitalize in markets across the region.

    我們在多個市場都取得了廣泛的成功;香港的價值指標持續強勁。在亞洲其他地區,我們在中國的業務取得了強勁的業績,在新加坡、印尼代理機構以及菲律賓銀行合作夥伴的業務也保持了持續成長勢頭。因此,我們持續看到廣泛的成功。我們看到的是,市場基本面和客戶需求依然強勁,與菲爾更新的策略一致。我們將繼續加大投資以促進成長,並且我們已做好充分準備,把握整個地區市場的機會。

  • Alex Scott - Equity Analyst

    Alex Scott - Equity Analyst

  • That's helpful, thank you. So, the next question I wanted to ask about your private credit exposure. See if you could put numbers around some of the different forms of private credit you have. And also, just ask if you have any comments, just on some of the comments that have been made by industry participants out there that have been a little more critical of private credit recently.

    這很有幫助,謝謝。那麼,接下來我想問的是關於您的私人信用風險敞口的問題。試著用數字來量化你擁有的一些不同類型的私人信貸。另外,也想問大家,對於最近一些業內人士對私人信貸持較為批評態度的評論,你們有什麼看法?

  • Trevor Kreel - Chief Investment Officer

    Trevor Kreel - Chief Investment Officer

  • Alex, it's Trevor. Thanks for the question. So yes, in terms of private credits, just for context, our below investment-grade private credit portfolio is around CAD4 billion. It's a little bit less than about 1% of our general account assets. It is -- the strategy is largely focused on middle market lending to private equity-sponsored companies. It's pretty diverse by issuer, sector and sponsor. And we do manage and underwrite these assets in-house. I would say we see our participation as kind of being on the low end of the risk spectrum. Our performance has actually been quite strong even with COVID, even with the rate increases. And the credit expense has actually been, I think, well within our loss assumptions.

    Alex,我是Trevor。謝謝你的提問。所以,就私人信貸而言,為了便於理解,我們投資等級以下的私人信貸組合約為 40 億加元。這大約略低於我們一般帳戶資產的1%。沒錯—該策略主要集中於向私募股權投資公司提供中端市場貸款。按發行人、產業和發起人劃分,種類相當繁多。而我們確實對這些資產進行內部管理和承銷。我認為我們參與的風險程度屬於較低程度。即使在新冠疫情期間,即使利率上漲,我們的業績實際上也相當強勁。而且我認為,信貸支出實際上完全在我們的損失預期之內。

  • So, we are actually quite happy with the strategy. In terms of use of private credit, I would say, we're always looking at new asset classes to diversify the balance sheet. I think, given the nature of private credit – the ratings, the term, and the fact that it's floating rate, the most natural home for us on the balance sheet is probably our par and adjustable liabilities, where investment experience is passed back to the policyholders. So, I think, we might look to add a little bit more there where we thought it was sort of appropriate for the balance sheet.

    所以,我們對這個策略其實相當滿意。就私人信貸的使用而言,我認為我們一直在尋找新的資產類別來實現資產負債表的多元化。我認為,考慮到私人信貸的性質——評級、期限以及浮動利率的事實——對我們來說,資產負債表上最自然的歸宿可能是我們的平價和可調整負債,在那裡,投資經驗會回饋給保單持有人。所以,我認為,我們可能會考慮在資產負債表上增加一些資金,因為我們認為這樣做比較適合。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gabriel Dechaine, National Bank Financial.

    Gabriel Dechaine,國家銀行金融公司。

  • Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

    Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

  • Good morning. First question is for the -- the GWAM business, the Mandatory Provident Fund fee changes that are going to start having an effect in Q4. So, we all are aware of this, but you alluded to some actions you would take, and you contemplated this regulatory change when you laid out your 2027 vision. Maybe you can shed a bit more light on what some of these offsets are, how impactful it could be when they could become effective, I guess?

    早安.第一個問題是關於 GWAM 業務,強制公積金費用的變化將在第四季度開始產生影響。所以,我們都知道這一點,但您曾暗示過您會採取一些行動,並且在您闡述 2027 年願景時也考慮過這種監管變化。或許您可以更詳細地解釋一下這些抵銷措施是什麼,以及它們生效時會產生多大的影響?

  • Paul Lorentz - President & CEO, Global Wealth and Asset Management

    Paul Lorentz - President & CEO, Global Wealth and Asset Management

  • Yes. Thank you. It's Paul Lorentz here. Just on that, the guidance we provided around about USD25 million a quarter remains intact once we get through the entire transition. So, we did transition earlier this month. It will take us some time to decommission systems, obviously, reduce our FTE footprint there because we're no longer servicing the business. So, you'd expect to see some of that come through, those costs continue into Q1, and then we would expect most of those to disappear into Q2. In terms of outlook for Q4, we did end the quarter with higher AUMA versus the average. So, there is a little bit of upside there in terms of revenue, but that would be offset by the eMPF coming in for two months of the quarter. And then in Q1, we would obviously get the full run rate coming through.

    是的。謝謝。我是保羅‧洛倫茲。僅就這一點而言,我們先前給出的每季約 2500 萬美元的預期,在完成整個過渡期後仍然有效。所以,我們本月初完成了過渡。顯然,我們需要一些時間來停用系統,減少我們在那裡的全職員工人數,因為我們不再為該業務提供服務。所以,預計其中一些成本會持續到第一季度,然後我們預計其中大部分成本會在第二季度消失。就第四季的展望而言,我們本季末的 AUMA 高於平均水準。因此,就收入而言,這方面還有一些成長空間,但這將被本季兩個月的 eMPF 收入所抵消。然後到了第一季度,我們顯然就能看到全部的運行率了。

  • Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

    Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

  • So just to put a finer point, are you expecting to fully offset at some point in the future or not?

    所以,更確切地說,您是否預期在未來的某個時候完全抵消這些債務?

  • Paul Lorentz - President & CEO, Global Wealth and Asset Management

    Paul Lorentz - President & CEO, Global Wealth and Asset Management

  • So, most of the expense actions we took were upfront to try and get ahead of it. That's why we've seen such an improvement in our margin, frankly, leading up to the transition. So, we are very proactive in terms of not waiting for the transition to happen. So, we feel we've taken most of the costs out, except for those that are remaining, which will disappear in Q1.

    因此,我們採取的大部分費用控制措施都是預先進行的,目的是提前做好準備。坦白說,正因如此,我們在轉型之前利潤率才有瞭如此大的提升。因此,我們採取了非常積極主動的態度,不會坐等過渡發生。因此,我們感覺已經消除了大部分成本,只剩下一些剩餘的成本,這些成本將在第一季消失。

  • Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

    Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

  • Okay. Then, a question on the actuarial review, which I always am hesitant to ask about because it could get a little bit technical. But, in the LTC components, specifically, there's a familiar pattern: you increase your morbidity reserves, essentially, and then offset that with future premium increases expected. But, on the medical cost inflation that you're observing, you talked about higher utilization because of rising health care costs. Is that just another way of saying the utilization is -- well, is it actually higher or it's the same utilization and it's just costing you more? Because it's kind of a nuanced message there. And what kind of, I guess, inflation are you factoring into this updated assumption? Up to 10% a year or something like that? I don't know.

    好的。然後,我想問一個關於精算審查的問題,我一直不太敢問,因為它可能會有點技術性。但是,具體到長期照護保險部分,有一個熟悉的模式:基本上,你增加你的疾病儲備,然後用預期的未來保費成長來抵消它。但是,關於您所觀察到的醫療成本上漲問題,您提到由於醫療保健成本上升,醫療資源利用率也隨之提高。這只是另一種說法,意思是利用率──嗯,實際上是更高了,還是利用率不變,只是成本更高了?因為那裡面傳遞的訊息比較微妙。那麼,您在更新後的假設中考慮了哪一種通膨因素呢?每年最高可達10%左右?我不知道。

  • Stephanie Fadous - Chief Actuary

    Stephanie Fadous - Chief Actuary

  • Gabe, it's Stephanie. Thank you for the question. So, for the LTC triennial review, what we saw is a modest favorable impact that's in line with the experience that we would have seen since the last review. But as you point out, there were different parts. And if we dive in a little deeper, we have been seeing utilization losses for a number of quarters. And to your question, that is a result of higher medical inflation. So, this is something we were focused on. And we fully address what we've observed, and we are also reflecting elevated inflation for a little longer period of time. There were also, as you point out, other parts that led to positives. We had absorbed consistent termination gains, which led to a favorable impact to reserve. And we have also reviewed our premium rate increase assumption, which we remain very conservative and embedded less than 30% of the total outstanding ask.

    Gabe,我是Stephanie。謝謝你的提問。因此,對於 LTC 三年一次的審查,我們看到的是一種適度的有利影響,這與我們自上次審查以來所看到的經驗相符。但正如你所指出的,它由不同的部分組成。如果我們深入分析一下,就會發現我們已經連續幾季出現利用率下降的情況。至於你的問題,這是醫療通膨上升的結果。所以,這是我們一直在關注的重點。我們會充分考慮我們觀察到的情況,我們也考慮到通貨膨脹率會在更長的時間內保持在較高水準。正如你所指出的,還有其他一些方面也帶來了正面的影響。我們已經吸收了持續的終止收益,這對儲備金產生了有利影響。我們也重新檢視了保費上漲的假設,我們仍然非常保守,並將上漲幅度控制在未決總額的30%以內。

  • Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

    Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

  • Got it. And any sense of what medical cost inflation you're assuming?

    知道了。你對醫療成本上漲幅度有什麼估計嗎?

  • Stephanie Fadous - Chief Actuary

    Stephanie Fadous - Chief Actuary

  • So, as I mentioned, we did reflect that. The medical cost inflation has come down since its peak, but it's still slightly elevated. We reflected that that would persist a little longer before returning to our longer-term view. And, I think, I would leave it with our longer-term view is higher than general inflation expectations.

    正如我之前提到的,我們也考慮到了這一點。醫療成本通膨率雖然已從高峰迴落,但仍略高於平均值。我們預計這種情況還會持續一段時間,之後才會恢復到我們的長期視角。而且,我認為,最後我想說的是,我們的長期預期高於整體通膨預期。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom MacKinnon, BMO Capital.

    Tom MacKinnon,BMO Capital。

  • Tom Mackinnon - Analyst

    Tom Mackinnon - Analyst

  • Yes. Thanks very much, good morning. A question maybe for Phil here. Just the thinking behind this refreshed strategy. I mean you came out with these 2027 targets about 16 months ago; you're standing by them. Is it really a new team, you wanted to kind of refresh it because you've got a new kind of leadership team?

    是的。非常感謝,早安。這裡或許有個問題想問菲爾。只是這項全新策略背後的思路。我的意思是,你們大約在16個月前提出了這些2027年的目標;你們仍然堅持這些目標。真的是新團隊嗎?你們想對團隊做一些調整,因為你們有了新的領導團隊?

  • And I noticed that now you're talking about kind of more balanced growth across the portfolio. I'm just interpreting it, leave it up to you to here to paraphrase. But investing to grow in Canada and the US, how should we be thinking about that in terms of outlook for share buybacks? They still look like that's going to be fairly robust. But yes, maybe you can address some of those points I've raised.

    我注意到,你現在談論的是投資組合中更均衡的成長。我只是在翻譯,至於如何改寫,就交給你了。但是,在加拿大和美國進行投資以實現成長時,我們應該如何看待股票回購的前景?它們看起來仍然會相當堅固耐用。不過,或許您可以回應一下我提出的一些問題。

  • Philip Witherington - President & CEO

    Philip Witherington - President & CEO

  • Thanks, Tom. This is Phil. And there's quite a lot in there to unpack. So, if I miss something out, please do call me out on it, and I'll provide a supplement. But the logic for the refreshed strategy update, I do acknowledge that the strategy we've had for the past eight years has served the company tremendously well, we've been through a period of hugely successful transformation.

    謝謝你,湯姆。這是菲爾。這裡面有很多東西要解讀。所以,如果我遺漏了什麼,請告訴我,我會補充說明。但就這次策略更新的邏輯而言,我確實承認,過去八年來我們採取的策略對公司來說非常有效,我們經歷了一段非常成功的轉型期。

  • And we felt, having achieved what we wanted to achieve with the last strategy as a leadership team, we felt that this was the right time to take a fresh look. And something that I've said before is that given that the external environment continues to evolve, it's really important that the strategy is never static, that we always look at what's changing externally and how do we position the company. Yes, of course, to deliver on our 2027 targets, but have a much longer time horizon beyond that when we think about setting the company up for long-term success.

    我們領導團隊認為,在上一個策略中我們實現了想要達成的目標之後,現在是時候重新檢視了。我之前說過,鑑於外部環境不斷變化,策略絕不能一成不變,我們必須時時關注外部環境的變化,並調整公司的定位,這一點非常重要。當然,我們的目標是實現 2027 年的目標,但當我們考慮如何讓公司長期成功時,我們的目光要放眼更長遠。

  • So Tom, you picked up on something that's really important and that is balanced growth. And having a diversified organization is something that we truly value. It's something that provides resilience. One of the things that is not changing as part of this strategy is that Asia and Global Wealth and Asset Management remain compelling growth opportunities, and we will do everything within our means to fulfill that opportunity. But at the same time, given the transformation that has been delivered over the course of the past eight years, our new business footprint in both Canada and the US is attractive. We're generating attractive margins, and we see an opportunity to invest to grow our new business in the US and Canada; and in particular, in the US, to grow new business so that it sustains our scale.

    所以湯姆,你注意到了一個很重要的點,那就是均衡發展。擁有多元化的組織是我們非常重視的。它能增強韌性。該策略中不變的一點是,亞洲和全球財富及資產管理仍然是極具吸引力的成長機會,我們將竭盡所能抓住這一機會。但同時,鑑於過去八年來的轉型,我們在加拿大和美國的新業務佈局具有吸引力。我們正在創造可觀的利潤,我們看到了投資發展我們在美國和加拿大新業務的機會;尤其是在美國,發展新業務以維持我們的規模。

  • And that, therefore, is the relevance, I think, to our overall portfolio diversification, we sustain a level of diversification within the overall organization. On this topic as well, our strategy clarifies that we do believe that it's important to be in the mega economies of the future, and we have a hugely successful business in the US, both on the GWAM side and on the insurance side with John Hancock. We have a successful scale business in China. And where we saw a strategic gap was the scale of our presence in India. And that was really the logic for us taking decisive action to enter the India insurance market. There are other elements of our strategy that I won't go into, but I'd just call out that being a leader in AI and an AI-powered organization is important to us. And I think that's very important to our overall competitive position and future success.

    因此,我認為,這就是我們整體投資組合多元化的意義所在,我們要在整個組織內部保持一定程度的多元化。關於這一點,我們的策略也明確表明,我們相信參與未來的超級經濟體非常重要,而且我們在美國的業務非常成功,無論是在 GWAM 方面還是在與 John Hancock 合作的保險方面。我們在中國擁有成功的規模化業務。我們發現的策略差距在於我們在印度的業務規模。這就是我們果斷進入印度保險市場的真正邏輯。我們的策略還有其他一些要素,我就不贅述了,但我只想強調一點,成為人工智慧領域的領導者和人工智慧驅動型組織對我們來說非常重要。我認為這對我們的整體競爭地位和未來成功至關重要。

  • But Tom, you referenced the importance of capital generation. And I do want to emphasize that we expect to continue the strong capital generation that the company has seen in recent years. Colin referenced our expectations for remittances for 2025. I think that's a good example, $6 billion. And when it comes to capital deployment and share buybacks, our highest priority is unchanged, and that's to organically invest in our business, as well as sustaining and growing our shareholder dividend.

    但是湯姆,你提到了累積資本的重要性。我還要強調,我們期望公司能夠持續維持近年來強勁的資本創造動能。科林提到了我們對 2025 年匯款的預期。我認為這是一個很好的例子,60億美元。至於資本部署和股票回購,我們的首要任務依然不變,那就是對我們的業務進行有機投資,同時維持和增加股東分紅。

  • And then, for what's left over, buybacks and strategic M&A are possibilities. But I will emphasize, when it comes to strategic M&A, the bar is high, and that means that buybacks – we expect to continue to be an important form of capital deployment for us. I hope that covers all the points you raised, Tom.

    至於剩餘的股份,可以考慮回購和策略併購。但我要強調的是,在策略併購方面,門檻很高,這意味著股票回購——我們預計仍將是我們重要的資本部署方式。湯姆,我希望這能涵蓋你提出的所有問題。

  • Tom Mackinnon - Analyst

    Tom Mackinnon - Analyst

  • No, that's fulsome. Thank you so much, Phil. And congratulations to Marc Constantini as he kind of moves on to his next role here. So, all the best.

    不,這太誇張了。非常感謝你,菲爾。恭喜馬克康斯坦蒂尼即將開啟他的新篇章。祝一切順利。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Doug Young, Desjardins Capital Markets.

    道格楊,德斯賈丁資本市場。

  • Doug Young - Analyst

    Doug Young - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. I'm going to go back to the actuarial review. And there was, I think, a change in methodology in Asia, correct me if I'm wrong, from the PPA to the GMM; and I think this had a decent positive impact on the CSM. And so, I'm just trying to understand why the shift and what impact did that shift have on core earnings in the quarter and, with all the moving parts, the core earnings going forward, Colin I think you talked a bit about it, will have a positive impact. Can you put a finer point on what that positive impact might be?

    您好,早安。我要回去複習精算知識。我認為,亞洲的市場方法發生了變化,如果我錯了請糾正我,從 PPA 轉變為 GMM;我認為這對 CSM 產生了相當大的正面影響。所以,我只是想了解為什麼會出現這種轉變,以及這種轉變對本季核心收益產生了什麼影響。考慮到所有變數,科林,我想你剛才也談到了一些,未來的核心收益將會產生正面影響。您能否更具體地說明這種正面影響可能是什麼?

  • Stephanie Fadous - Chief Actuary

    Stephanie Fadous - Chief Actuary

  • Thanks Doug. It's Stephanie. I'll start and see if Colin wants to add. But you're right. So, in terms of the impact of the annual review, which was favorable and led to a reserve reduction of $605 million, a large part of this was driven by a change in how we account for some health insurance contract in Hong Kong. We're moving from the PAA approach, or what you would call short-term insurance contract, to reserving for the lifetime. I'd add that since we implemented our IFRS 17, we've been studying industry practice, and we found that most players accounted for these products over the lifetime, so we're now aligning with this practice. What this does is we've capitalized our cash flows in the reserve, and we've set up a CSM to offset it. No impact to total insurance contract liability. In terms of the impact to core earnings for this item, and there are small timing differences. So, there will be a modest favorable impact. And then you asked about the impact of the annual review overall on core earnings. Due to the favorable impact, we saw an increase in CSM which will lead to an increase in CSM amortization of approximately $30 million per quarter.

    謝謝你,道格。是史蒂芬妮。我先來,看看科林要不要補充。但你說得對。因此,就年度審查的影響而言,審查結果是有利的,導致準備金減少了 6.05 億美元,其中很大一部分原因是我們在香港對一些健康保險合約的會計處理方式發生了變化。我們正在從 PAA 方法(或您稱之為短期保險合約)轉向終身準備金。我還要補充一點,自從我們實施 IFRS 17 以來,我們一直在研究行業慣例,我們發現大多數參與者都會在產品的整個生命週期內進行會計處理,因此我們現在正在與這種做法保持一致。這樣做就是將我們的現金流量資本化到儲備金中,並設立了現金流管理機制來抵銷它。對保險契約總賠償責任無影響。就該專案對核心收益的影響而言,存在一些時間上的差異。因此,將會產生適度的有利影響。然後您問到年度考核對核心收益的整體影響。由於有利的影響,我們看到 CSM 增加,這將導致 CSM 攤銷每季增加約 3000 萬美元。

  • Doug Young - Analyst

    Doug Young - Analyst

  • Per quarter, okay. And is there any other changes being contemplated?

    按季度算,好的。還有其他正在考慮的改變嗎?

  • Stephanie Fadous - Chief Actuary

    Stephanie Fadous - Chief Actuary

  • At this time, with no other changes of the type being contemplated.

    目前暫無其他此類變更的考量。

  • Doug Young - Analyst

    Doug Young - Analyst

  • Okay. And then just second, on the credit side, thanks for the detail on private credit. But what got my eye is, it seems like the parameter movements caused a reversal of credit provisions this quarter, and it was kind of tied into the positive moves in equity markets. And everyone can see the positive move in equity markets. But I was a bit surprised that positive move in equity market has an impact on the ECL or as significant impact on ECL. So, I just wanted to kind of understand the mechanics there a little bit.

    好的。其次,關於信貸方面,感謝您詳細介紹私人信貸。但讓我注意到的是,參數變動似乎導致了本季信貸撥備的逆轉,而且這與股票市場的積極走勢有一定的關聯。每個人都能看到股市的正面趨勢。但我有點驚訝,股市的正面趨勢會對預期信用損失產生影響,或者說對預期信用損失有顯著影響。所以,我只是想稍微了解一下其中的運作機制。

  • Trevor Kreel - Chief Investment Officer

    Trevor Kreel - Chief Investment Officer

  • Hi, Doug, it's Trevor. Thanks for the question. So yes, in terms of the ECL, as you noted, there was a $44 million release, which was better than the charge than we saw in Q2. And just to remind people, the ECL charge is broadly two main components. The first one is basically the impact of defaults and rating changes, which you would expect.

    嗨,道格,我是特雷弗。謝謝你的提問。是的,就 ECL 而言,正如您所指出的,釋放了 4400 萬美元,這比我們在第二季度看到的費用要好。提醒大家一下,ECL 費用大致由兩部分組成。第一個影響主要體現在違約和評等變化上,這也在意料之中。

  • And then there is, secondly, this modeled impact reflecting changes in the broader economic environment. And we include both of those components in our definition of core earnings. As you said, for Q3 specifically, the majority of the benefit was driven by this positive impact from the market movement impact or the market environment impact driven by strong equity markets.

    其次,還有反映更廣泛經濟環境變化的模型影響。我們將這兩個組成部分都納入了核心效益的定義中。正如您所說,具體到第三季度,大部分收益是由強勁的股票市場帶來的市場波動或市場環境的正面影響所驅動的。

  • So I guess to your question, so we use a third-party model, and that third-party model basically generates this market environment impact and it includes a variety of metrics. So, equity markets is one, volatility, interest rates, et cetera, and how those have actually been correlated to credit experience in the past. So that's what the model is basically doing. It's not a linear impact but, given the strength of equity markets and the consistency of that strength, the model obviously picked it up and felt that the environment was obviously much less risky than it had been in prior quarters, and that leads to the release.

    所以,我想回答你的問題,我們使用第三方模型,該第三方模型基本上產生了這種市場環境影響,其中包括各種指標。因此,股票市場是一方面,波動性、利率等等,以及這些因素在過去與信貸經驗的實際相關性。這就是該模型的基本工作原理。這並非線性影響,但鑑於股市的強勁勢頭及其持續性,該模型顯然捕捉到了這一點,並認為當前環境的風險明顯低於前幾季度,因此導致了此次發布。

  • Doug Young - Analyst

    Doug Young - Analyst

  • And I guess the point is, I mean, this obviously was favorable this quarter, but this is another area where if equity markets were to decline, you could see the reverse happen, I guess that's kind of obvious, but --

    我想說的是,這顯然是本季有利的,但如果股市下跌,情況可能會相反,我想這一點顯而易見。--

  • Trevor Kreel - Chief Investment Officer

    Trevor Kreel - Chief Investment Officer

  • Yes, exactly. Yes, that’s right.

    是的,正是如此。是的,沒錯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Paul Holden, CIBC.

    Paul Holden,加拿大帝國商業銀行。

  • Paul Holden - Analyst

    Paul Holden - Analyst

  • Yes, good morning. First question, I want to ask about the Hong Kong APE sales. Obviously, they were quite strong over the prior four quarters and now a little bit of a decline year-over-year. So really, I guess what I want to understand is what should we expect over the next few quarters as you continue to lap up some pretty good comps. Do you think you can produce positive growth in sales? Or is it going to be similar to this quarter, or maybe there's a bit of, I don't know if you call it, a normalization in growth?

    是的,早安。首先,我想問一下關於香港 APE 銷售的情況。顯然,他們在前四個季度表現相當強勁,但現在比去年同期略有下滑。所以,我真正想了解的是,在接下來的幾個季度裡,隨著你們繼續享受一些相當不錯的同業比較,我們應該期待些什麼。你認為你能實現銷售額的正成長嗎?或者情況會和本季類似,或是成長會出現一些,我不知道該怎麼稱呼,正常化趨勢?

  • Steven Finch - President & CEO, Manulife Asia

    Steven Finch - President & CEO, Manulife Asia

  • Yes. Thanks, Paul. It's Steve here. And as you noted, the Hong Kong, the APE was down modestly year-over-year. And that was off, as Colin noted earlier, a very strong base the prior year. And your point about growth, we've seen year-to-date, the APE has increased 46% year-over-year. So, that demonstrates the growth that we've had. In addition, while the APE declined in the quarter, our value metrics performed strongly.

    是的。謝謝你,保羅。我是史蒂夫。正如您所指出的,香港的APE比去年同期略有下降。正如科林之前提到的那樣,這是建立在前一年非常堅實的基礎上的。關於您提到的成長問題,我們看到,今年迄今為止,APE 年比增長了 46%。這證明了我們所取得的成長。此外,雖然本季度 APE 有所下降,但我們的價值指標表現強勁。

  • So in Hong Kong, we are happy with these results. NBV and NB CSM were up 10% and 12% year-over-year, respectively. And that was due to some favorable mix, some additional health and protection that we saw in the quarter. In terms of outlook in Hong Kong, Q4 was another strong last year. We typically see seasonal variability, so we'd expect some drop off in Q4 and picking up again in Q1.

    所以在香港,我們對這些結果感到滿意。NBV 和 NB CSM 分別較去年同期成長 10% 和 12%。這是由於本季出現了一些有利的因素,以及一些額外的健康和保護措施。就香港市場前景而言,去年第四季依然表現強勁。我們通常會看到季節性波動,因此我們預計第四季度會出現一些下降,然後第一季會再次回升。

  • But if I back up to look at the underlying fundamentals and look a bit further out than that, the market fundamentals do remain very strong, and demand is high from our customers. We also see that in Hong Kong, and in Singapore as well – an international financial center, and there's a strong flow of funds. So, the underlying drivers are favorable, and we're making significant investments in our capabilities to support customers and distributors. So, as we look out over the medium term, we remain very optimistic about the Hong Kong market.

    但是,如果我回顧一下基本面,並展望更長遠的未來,就會發現市場基本面依然非常強勁,而且客戶需求也很高。我們也看到,在香港和新加坡—國際金融中心—資金流動非常強勁。因此,根本驅動因素是有利的,我們正在大力投資提升自身能力,以更好地支援客戶和經銷商。因此,展望中期,我們對香港市場依然非常樂觀。

  • Paul Holden - Analyst

    Paul Holden - Analyst

  • Okay. Second question is going back to the strategy refresh. So, I want to get a better sense of how we should think about the earnings trajectory for Canada and US. When I hear investments in those markets, I think about maybe in the short term, higher expenses as a result of those investments, but longer-term growth rates. Is that the right interpretation?

    好的。第二個問題是回到策略調整上來。所以,我想更了解我們應該如何看待加拿大和美國的獲利軌跡。當我聽到對這些市場進行投資時,我想到的可能是短期內這些投資會帶來更高的支出,但長期來看會有成長率。這種解讀正確嗎?

  • Philip Witherington - President & CEO

    Philip Witherington - President & CEO

  • Paul, this is Phil. Thanks for the drill-down question there on the strategy. The way I see this, I mean, we only have one target when it comes to medium-term earnings growth and that's the 10% to 12% core EPS. But my expectation, and this is the leadership team's expectation, is that each of our segments contribute to that growth. And the lens that we've applied in resetting the strategy is really to make it clear that growth will not only come from Asia and Global WAM, the US and Canada will be important contributors to that. And so, this is about investing to sustain scale, investing to sustain capital generation, investing to sustain growth rates. And I don't want to get too precise or issue any formal guidance.

    保羅,我是菲爾。感謝您就該策略提出的深入問題。就我看來,就中期獲利成長而言,我們只有一個目標,那就是核心每股盈餘成長 10% 至 12%。但我認為,也是領導團隊的期望,我們每個業務部門都能為此成長做出貢獻。我們在重新制定策略時所採用的視角,是要明確表明成長不僅來自亞洲和全球WAM,美國和加拿大也將為此做出重要貢獻。因此,這關乎於投資以維持規模,投資以維持資本創造,投資以維持成長率。我不想說得太具體,也不想發布任何正式的指導。

  • But I think what's reasonable are: we're not looking double digits for Canada and the US, but it's sort of low to mid-single digits for the US and a little higher for Canada. But I think we have great businesses in North America, and this strategy really clarifies that we see those businesses being an ongoing and important part of the overall portfolio.

    但我認為比較合理的預測是:加拿大和美國的感染人數不會達到兩位數,美國的感染人數大概在個位數偏低到中等水平,而加拿大的感染人數會稍微高一些。但我認為我們在北美擁有非常優秀的業務,而這項策略真正明確地表明,我們認為這些業務是整體投資組合中持續且重要的組成部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mario Mendonca, TD Securities.

    馬裡奧門東卡,道明證券。

  • Mario Mendonca - Analyst

    Mario Mendonca - Analyst

  • Good morning, Phil, a related question. So, when I reflect back on what the US business was in the past and what it's become, I remember, as I suspect many people on the call do, that the US business was a much broader business – long-term care, universal life, variable annuities, variable universal life; there was a lot going on, but it was a really messy business as well.

    早上好,菲爾,我還有一個相關的問題。所以,當我回顧美國業務過去的樣子和現在的樣子時,我記得,就像我懷疑電話會議上的許多人一樣,美國業務曾經是一個更廣泛的業務——長期護理、萬能壽險、可變年金、可變萬能壽險;當時有很多事情在發生,但同時也是一個非常混亂的業務。

  • So, as you think about this refresh in the US, is the point that -- is the goal to drive higher sales levels in your existing product mix? Or will you return Manulife to its former self with just a much broader product suite in the US?

    所以,當您考慮在美國進行這次產品更新時,重點是—目標是提高現有產品組合的銷售水平嗎?或者,您會透過在美國提供更廣泛的產品組合,使宏利金融恢復到以前的狀態嗎?

  • Philip Witherington - President & CEO

    Philip Witherington - President & CEO

  • Thank you, Mario, for the question. And let me be really clear up front: there is no intention in the US or John Hancock to go back to the days of variable annuities and that higher market risk types of products. There are really two elements to our strategy, and I'll come on to this.

    謝謝你的提問,馬裡奧。首先我要先明確一點:美國和約翰漢考克公司都沒有打算回到可變年金和高市場風險產品時代的時代。我們的策略實際上包含兩個要素,我稍後會詳細說明。

  • What we're really thinking about is, when we reflect on the transformation that we've delivered in the US over the course of the past seven to eight years, is we've created differentiation through our focus on behavioral insurance that promotes health and wellness. And that creates differentiation in the market that has enabled us to be successful in what I would say is quite a niche footprint in the high net worth, focusing on the high net worth customer segment.

    我們真正思考的是,回顧過去七、八年我們在美國實現的轉型,我們透過專注於促進健康和福祉的行為保險,創造了差異化優勢。這在市場上創造了差異化優勢,使我們能夠在高淨值客戶群這一相對小眾的領域中取得成功,並專注於高淨值客戶群。

  • It's profitable. The business we write is profitable. The margins are now at a similar level to the margins that we generate on average in Asia. So, the question for us is twofold. One is: how do we potentially broaden the scope of solutions that we provide to customers, but within our risk appetite? So, not going back to where we were 10, 15, 20 years ago. And secondly, how do we take the solutions that we have and enable those solutions to be accessed not only by high net worth individuals, but affluent individuals and families and emerging high net worth individuals? So, that's really an expansion of the relevant customer segments that we focus on. And, I feel, with some of the strategic changes that we're making in the US and the team that we have, we're very well positioned to be able to deliver on that opportunity and sustain our scale, earnings and capital generation from what is the largest economy and the largest insurance market in the world.

    它有利可圖。我們撰寫的商業文章是有利可圖的。目前利潤率與我們在亞洲平均獲得的利潤率處於相似水平。所以,對我們來說,問題有兩個面向。其中一個問題是:我們如何在風險承受範圍內,盡可能擴大我們為客戶提供的解決方案的範圍?所以,我們不會回到 10 年前、15 年前、20 年前的狀態。其次,我們如何利用現有的解決方案,使這些解決方案不僅能被高淨值人士獲得,還能被富裕人士、家庭以及新興高淨值人士獲得?所以,這其實是對我們關注的相關客戶群的擴展。而且,我覺得,憑藉我們在美國進行的一些戰略變革以及我們擁有的團隊,我們完全有能力抓住這個機遇,並維持我們在美國——世界上最大的經濟體和最大的保險市場——的規模、收益和資本創造。

  • Mario Mendonca - Analyst

    Mario Mendonca - Analyst

  • So Phil, does that mean that you stick with your existing product suite? I couldn't quite figure that out.

    菲爾,那是不是意味著你會繼續使用現有的產品組合?我始終沒能完全弄明白。

  • Philip Witherington - President & CEO

    Philip Witherington - President & CEO

  • In the near term, we're sticking with our existing product suite and scaling that or moving that into additional customer segments. We are also looking to be fully transparent, Mario, also looking at opportunities in adjacent products that help fulfill a wider range of customer needs, but within our risk appetite. And we have robust risk disciplines that apply not only in the US but around the world.

    短期內,我們將繼續使用現有的產品套件,並擴大其規模或將其推廣到其他客戶群。馬裡奧,我們也希望做到完全透明,同時也在尋找相關產品的機會,以滿足更廣泛的客戶需求,但這一切都在我們的風險承受範圍內。我們擁有健全的風險管理體系,不僅適用於美國,也適用於世界各地。

  • Mario Mendonca - Analyst

    Mario Mendonca - Analyst

  • Okay. A quick follow-up question. Look, none of this is free. I see that the efficiency target is no longer formally part of your strategic refresh, but I appreciate that it's still a priority. Would it be fair to say that the sub-45% efficiency ratio, that's something you could sacrifice in the near term in pursuit of this refreshed strategy in Canada and the US?

    好的。還有一個後續問題。你看,這一切都不是免費的。我注意到效率目標已不再是你們策略調整的正式組成部分,但我很欣賞它仍然是你們的優先事項。可以說,為了在加拿大和美國推行這項新的策略,短期內可以犧牲低於 45% 的效率比率嗎?

  • Philip Witherington - President & CEO

    Philip Witherington - President & CEO

  • Actually, Mario, we're not withdrawing our sub-45% targets when it comes to efficiency ratio. I expect that to be maintained. And going in the other direction on this. Yes, we'll be investing in our businesses. But part of our investments at an enterprise level include becoming an AI-powered organization. And we're already seeing the benefits of our investments and leadership position in AI pay off, when it comes to mitigating expense growth and providing an ability for the organization to do more with less. And so, I think there are forces moving in both directions that will enable us to continue to be efficient.

    實際上,馬裡奧,我們並沒有放棄將效率比率設定在 45% 以下的目標。我希望這種情況能夠維持下去。而在這件事上,我們卻朝著相反的方向發展。是的,我們會對我們的企業進行投資。但我們在企業層面的投資之一,就是成為人工智慧驅動型組織。我們已經看到,我們在人工智慧領域的投資和領先地位正在帶來回報,例如降低成本成長,並使組織能夠以更少的資源做更多的事情。因此,我認為目前存在著雙向發展的力量,這將使我們能夠繼續保持高效率。

  • Mario Mendonca - Analyst

    Mario Mendonca - Analyst

  • And Marc, congratulations on a great career there and hope to see you in your new role.

    馬克,恭喜你在那裡取得了輝煌的職業生涯,並希望在新崗位上繼續見到你。

  • Philip Witherington - President & CEO

    Philip Witherington - President & CEO

  • He's smiling. Thanks Mario.

    他面帶微笑。謝謝你,馬裡奧。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Darko Mihelic, RBC Capital Markets.

    Darko Mihelic,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

  • Darko Mihelic - Analyst

    Darko Mihelic - Analyst

  • Hi, thank you, good morning. Just a real quick question on corporate. There's a bit of noise in there. You actually have a negative CSM. Colin, how should I think about this business unit on a go-forward basis from a modeling perspective?

    您好,謝謝,早安。關於公司方面,我有個很簡短的問題。裡面有點噪音。你的 CSM 其實是負值。柯林,從建模的角度來看,我該如何看待這個事業部門未來的發展?

  • Colin Simpson - Chief Financial Officer

    Colin Simpson - Chief Financial Officer

  • Good to hear from you. Corporate was a little bit more different to the trend, actually, and a large part of that was the withholding tax accrual release that we made in respect of the Comvest acquisition. But I think going forward, you would expect us to have a result of $300 million to $400 million in this line, and that reflects further investments in central products. You mentioned the CSM, the negative CSM; that is related to our COLI product that we've owned for many years. It's really just an intercompany settlement and nothing to really focus on. It will be steady for the next few quarters.

    很高興收到你的來信。實際上,公司方面的情況與趨勢略有不同,這很大程度上是因為我們針對 Comvest 收購案進行了預扣稅提列釋放。但我認為展望未來,我們預計該業務線將實現 3 億至 4 億美元的業績,這反映了我們對核心產品的進一步投資。您提到了 CSM,負 CSM;這與我們擁有多年的 COLI 產品有關。這其實只是一筆公司內部結算,沒什麼值得特別關注的。未來幾季將保持穩定。

  • Darko Mihelic - Analyst

    Darko Mihelic - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you. And a question for Steve Finch. Steve, the question is really twofold. One is: your agent count is still declining. Maybe you can talk a little bit about what it is you're doing there, and does it affect sales power? And then on top of that, just quickly, how should we think about the build-out of India in terms of the earnings drag for the next couple of years?

    好的。謝謝。還有一個問題想問史蒂夫芬奇。史蒂夫,這個問題其實包含兩個面向。第一點是:您的經紀人數量仍在下降。或許您可以簡單談談您在那裡從事的工作,以及它是否會影響銷售業績?此外,簡單來說,我們該如何看待未來幾年印度市場擴張對獲利的拖累作用?

  • Steven Finch - President & CEO, Manulife Asia

    Steven Finch - President & CEO, Manulife Asia

  • Thanks, Darko. And on the agency side, our focus there, our strategy is building out a high-quality and professional agency. And it's not really driven by that metric in terms of number of agents. So, if we look at other metrics in terms of top-tier agency, our APE per active agent is growing significantly, our NBV per agent is also growing materially. And we've seen growth in our agency sales this year as a result of this. One of the other objective measures there, is a measure of top-tier agents, is the Million Dollar Round Table. Manulife was third globally in terms of number of MDRT qualifiers in '24, and the run rate is in the 20s, 20% for growth tracking through 2025 as well. And what we're continuing to do to drive this, is we're making investments. And broadly speaking, those investments are training and development, really investing in our people to be able to recruit high-quality agents, train them very well, develop them into leaders, and create highly professional agents, along with investments in technology and tools, AI tools that are making the agents more efficient providing better service to our customers, identifying from all the data that we've got on customer interactions, what the next best need for the agent would be.

    謝謝你,達科。在代理商方面,我們的重點和策略是打造一家高品質、專業的代理商。而且,這其實並不是由代理商數量這個指標所驅動的。所以,如果我們從頂級代理商的其他指標來看,我們每位活躍代理人的平均年收入 (APE) 正在顯著增長,我們每位代理人的淨業務價值 (NBV) 也在大幅增長。因此,我們今年的代理商銷售額也實現了成長。另一個客觀的衡量標準是百萬圓桌會議,它是衡量頂級經紀人的標準。2024 年,宏利金融在全球 MDRT 合格人數方面排名第三,到 2025 年,其成長率將保持在 20% 左右。為了推動這一進程,我們正在持續進行投資。總的來說,這些投資包括培訓和發展,真正投資於我們的員工,以便能夠招募高品質的代理人,對他們進行良好的培訓,將他們培養成領導者,並打造高度專業的代理人;同時投資於技術和工具,人工智能工具,使代理人更有效率地為客戶提供更好的服務,從我們擁有的所有客戶互動數據中識別出代理人的下一個最佳需求是什麼。

  • And we're seeing benefits from these investments. So, we are pleased with what we're seeing come out of these investments in the agency strategy. It's one of the core distribution engine of the franchise representing a little over a third of the sales.

    我們已經從這些投資中獲得了收益。因此,我們對這些投資在代理機構策略方面所取得的成果感到滿意。它是該特許經營的核心分銷引擎之一,佔銷售額的三分之一多一點。

  • Philip Witherington - President & CEO

    Philip Witherington - President & CEO

  • And Steve, did you want to cover the India earnings question? Okay. You go ahead, Steve.

    史蒂夫,你想談談印度的獲利問題嗎?好的。你先請,史蒂夫。

  • Steven Finch - President & CEO, Manulife Asia

    Steven Finch - President & CEO, Manulife Asia

  • Yes. Thanks. As Phil said earlier, we still have a ways to go to get the entity set up. We're not giving those forward projections at this time in terms of financial metrics, but we look forward to updating on that in the future.

    是的。謝謝。正如菲爾之前所說,我們距離實體的建立還有很長的路要走。目前我們暫不提供財務指標的預測,但我們期待未來能對此進行更新。

  • Philip Witherington - President & CEO

    Philip Witherington - President & CEO

  • Yes, that makes sense. And just to supplement, in terms of one financial metric we can provide is we expect the capital cost of India over the course of the next decade to be around USD400 million capital injection. In the first five years, that's around USD140 million to USD150 million. And I think that helps really to put some parameters around what the overall financial dynamics are, but a hugely exciting move for Manulife.

    是的,這很有道理。另外,就一項財務指標而言,我們預計印度在未來十年內的資本成本約為 4 億美元。前五年,這大約是 1.4 億美元到 1.5 億美元。我認為這確實有助於為整體財務動態設定一些參數,但對宏利來說,這是一個非常令人興奮的舉措。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. And this concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Hung Ko for any closing remarks.

    謝謝。問答環節到此結束。我謹將會議交還給洪高先生,請他作總結發言。

  • Hung Ko - VP, Global Head of Treasury and Investor Relations

    Hung Ko - VP, Global Head of Treasury and Investor Relations

  • Thank you, operator. We'll be available after the call if there are any follow-up questions. Have a good day, everyone.

    謝謝接線生。通話結束後,如有任何後續問題,我們將隨時為您解答。祝大家今天過得愉快。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This brings to a close of today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與,祝您有個愉快的一天。