Manulife Financial Corp (MFC) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Manulife Financial First Quarter 2024 Financial Results Conference Call. I would now like to hand the meeting over to Mr. Ko. Please go ahead, Mr. Ko.

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加宏利金融 2024 年第一季財務業績電話會議。現在我想把會議交給柯先生。請繼續，柯先生。

Thank you. Welcome to Manulife's earnings conference call to discuss our first quarter 2024 financial and operating results. Our earnings materials, including webcast slide for today's call, are available on the Investor Relations section of our website at manulife.com.

謝謝。歡迎參加宏利獲利電話會議，討論我們 2024 年第一季的財務和經營業績。我們的收益資料（包括今天電話會議的網路直播投影片）可在我們網站 manulife.com 的投資者關係部分找到。

Before we start, please refer to Slide 2 for a caution on forward-looking statements and Slide 36, for a note on the non-GAAP and other financial measures used in this presentation. Note that certain material factors or assumptions are applied in making forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially from what is stated.

在我們開始之前，請參閱投影片 2 中有關前瞻性陳述的警告，以及投影片 36 中有關本簡報中使用的非 GAAP 和其他財務指標的說明。請注意，在作出前瞻性陳述時會應用某些重要因素或假設，實際結果可能與所述結果有重大差異。

Turning to Slide 4. Roy Gori, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will begin today's presentation with the highlights of our first quarter results and strategic update. Following his remarks, Colin Simpson, our Chief Financial Officer, will discuss the company's financial and operating results in more detail. After the prepared remarks, we'll move to the live Q&A portion of the call. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Roy Gori, our President and Chief Executive Officer. Roy?

翻到投影片 4。我們的財務長 Colin Simpson 在演講結束後將更詳細地討論公司的財務和營運表現。準備好發言後，我們將進入電話會議的現場問答部分。接下來，我想將電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長羅伊·戈里 (Roy Gori)。羅伊？

Thanks, Hung, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Starting on Slide 6. Yesterday, we announced our first quarter 2024 financial results. We continued to execute against our strategy, driving quality growth and delivering superior results as we began 2024. Our topline growth was broad-based with record levels of new insurance business results, including double-digit growth in APE sales across each of our insurance segments, and $6.7 billion of Global WAM net inflows with positive contributions from each global business line.

謝謝 Hung，也謝謝大家今天的參與。從第 6 張投影片開始。在 2024 年伊始，我們繼續執行策略，推動高品質成長並取得卓越業績。 我們的營收成長基礎廣泛，新保險業務業績創下歷史新高，包括各保險部門的 APE 銷售額均實現兩位數增長，全球 WAM 淨流入達 67 億美元，每條全球業務線均做出積極貢獻。

This quarter, we closed the milestone reinsurance transaction with Global Atlantic, which includes the largest ever LTC block. Despite the modest impact of the transaction, we generated 16% growth in core earnings, supported by strong contributions from Asia and Global WAM. Core EPS grew by 20% as we continue to return capital to shareholders, including through share buybacks. Core ROE grew nearly 2 percentage points from prior year to 16.7% and is well ahead of our medium-term target of 15% plus. And we are delivering superior returns, while maintaining a robust balance sheet and ample financial flexibility.

本季度，我們與 Global Atlantic 完成了里程碑式的再保險交易，其中包括有史以來最大的 LTC 區塊。儘管交易的影響不大，但由於亞洲和全球 WAM 的強勁貢獻，我們的核心盈利仍增長了 16%。由於我們持續向股東返還資本（包括透過股票回購），因此核心每股盈餘成長了 20%。核心股本報酬率較上年成長近2個百分點，達到16.7%，遠高於我們15%以上的中期目標。我們在實現優異回報的同時，保持了強勁的資產負債表和充足的財務彈性。

Growing ROE is a key priority and a key outcome of our transformation journey, which takes me to Slide 7. During the quarter, we announced the largest ever Universal Life reinsurance deal in Canada, which is another milestone and a testament to our execution capabilities. We once again transacted, at an attractive earnings multiple ahead of where we currently trade. The transaction will release $800 million of capital which we plan to return to shareholders through an amendment to our existing share buyback program to repurchase up to 5% of our outstanding common shares.

提高 ROE 是我們轉型之旅的重中之重，也是關鍵成果，這讓我想到了第 7 張幻燈片。我們再次進行了交易，收益比目前的交易價格高出許多。此交易將釋放 8 億美元資本，我們計劃透過修改現有股票回購計劃，回購最多 5% 的已發行普通股，將這些資本返還給股東。

After accounting for buybacks, the deal will be accretive to both core ROE and core EPS. We also expect to reduce $600 million of ALDA backing the transacted block. This transaction is another example of the value that we continue to create for our shareholders and will contribute to higher returns going forward.

考慮到回購因素後，該交易將增加核心 ROE 和核心 EPS。我們也預計將減少 6 億美元的 ALDA 作為支援交易區塊的資金。此次交易是我們持續為股東創造價值的另一個例證，並將為未來更高的回報做出貢獻。

Turning to Slide 8. Expanding ROE is critical to delivering value to our shareholders. We have made tremendous progress since 2017, increasing core ROE by more than 5 percentage points, up from 11.3%. We continue to take organic and inorganic actions that drive even higher ROE. Our unique footprint and strong cash generation enable us to invest in our highest potential businesses to generate superior returns.

轉到投影片 8。自 2017 年以來，我們取得了巨大進步，核心 ROE 提高了 5 個百分點以上，高於 11.3%。我們將繼續採取有機和無機行動，進一步提高 ROE。我們獨特的足跡和強大的現金創造能力使我們能夠投資於最具潛力的業務，以獲得豐厚的回報。

During the quarter, we delivered 34% NBV growth, with Asia comprising approximately 70% of the balance. In addition to record topline metrics, we have generated strong bottom-line growth, and our transformation is driving increased earnings contributions from our high-return businesses, with over 2/3 of core earnings delivered by our highest potential businesses during the quarter. This is up from 60% in the prior year. Inclusive of dividends, over the past year we returned $4.1 billion of capital to our shareholders. We continued to expand Global WAM's capabilities and footprint by closing our acquisition of CQS in April. CQS's experience in alternative credit investments not only expands our presence in Europe, but also accelerates the growth of our global wealth and asset management capabilities, broadening the solutions we can offer our clients around the world.

本季度，我們的新業務價值成長了 34%，其中亞洲約佔成長的 70%。除了創紀錄的營收指標外，我們還實現了強勁的淨利潤成長，我們的轉型推動了高回報業務的獲利貢獻增加，本季超過三分之二的核心獲利來自我們最具潛力的業務。這一數字比上年的 60% 有所上升。包括股息在內，過去的一年我們向股東返還了 41 億美元的資本。我們於 4 月完成對 CQS 的收購，並持續拓展 Global WAM 的能力與影響力。 CQS 在另類信貸投資方面的經驗不僅擴大了我們在歐洲的業務，而且加速了我們全球財富和資產管理能力的成長，拓寬了我們可以為全球客戶提供的解決方案。

In addition, we will return the $2 billion of capital release from our 2 recent reinsurance transactions on low ROE businesses to shareholders through buybacks. All of these actions support long-term ROE growth, and we are focused on exploring additional opportunities to continue to generate higher returns.

此外，我們將透過回購的方式將最近兩筆低 ROE 業務再保險交易中釋放的 20 億美元資本返還給股東。所有這些舉措都支持長期 ROE 成長，我們專注於探索更多機會以繼續產生更高的回報。

I am excited by our momentum in the first quarter, and by the opportunities ahead of us to continue generating shareholder value. I will now hand it over to Colin to review the highlights of our financial results. Colin.

我對我們第一季的發展勢頭以及繼續為股東創造價值的未來機會感到興奮。現在我將交給科林來回顧我們財務表現的亮點。科林。

Thanks, Roy. 2024 has started off well, and I am excited to go into a little more detail on the quarter's results before the Q&A. I will start with our top line on Slide 10. Our APE sales increased 21% from prior year with double-digit growth across each of our insurance segments. This increase was supported by higher sales across several Asian businesses, higher large-case group insurance sales in Canada and an increase in demand from affluent customers in the U.S. The momentum in our sales contributed to strong increases in new business CSM and new business value of 52% and 34%, respectively. Our value metrics grew by more than our volume metrics, demonstrating our focus on pricing discipline and business mix shift towards higher-margin products.

謝謝，羅伊。 2024 年開局良好，我很高興在問答環節之前更詳細地介紹本季度的業績。我先從投影片 10 上的頂線開始介紹。這一成長得益於多家亞洲企業的銷售成長、加拿大大額團體保險銷售成長以及美國富裕客戶需求成長。我們的價值指標成長超過了數量指標，顯示我們對定價紀律的關注以及業務組合向利潤率更高的產品的轉變。

Global WAM saw strong net inflows of $6.7 billion, reflecting positive flows from each business line. As you can see, there is real momentum in our global portfolio of businesses.

全球 WAM 淨流入強勁，達 67 億美元，反映出各業務線均有正流入。如您所見，我們的全球業務組合呈現出真正的發展勢頭。

Turning to Slide 11, which shows the growth in our profit metrics. Core EPS increased 20% as we grew core earnings and continued buying back shares. During the quarter, we further improved our core ROE to 16.7%, above our medium-term target of 15% plus for the fourth consecutive quarter. We remain focused on driving up ROE and have been able to demonstrate progress through the execution of our 2 recent reinsurance transactions, along with business performance improvement and astute capital allocation.

翻到投影片 11，它展示了我們的利潤指標的成長。隨著我們核心收益的成長和持續回購股票，核心每股收益成長了 20%。本季度，我們的核心股本回報率進一步提高至 16.7%，連續四個季度高於 15% 以上的中期目標。我們仍然專注於提高 ROE，並且透過執行最近兩筆再保險交易、改善業務績效和精明的資本配置已經能夠展示進度。

And on Slide 12, you can see that we continued to show steady growth in our adjusted book value per share, supported by an increase in our book value together with our CSM, which is a store of future earnings. This resulted in growth from the prior year quarter of 11%, or 13% excluding the effect of foreign exchange rate movements, to $33.39.

在投影片 12 上，您可以看到我們的調整後每股帳面價值持續穩定成長，這得益於我們的帳面價值和 CSM（未來收益的儲備）的增加。與去年同期相比，數字成長了 11%，若不考慮外匯匯率變動的影響，則成長了 13%，達到 33.39 美元。

Bringing you back to our core earnings results on Slide 13. I would like to call out some of the highlights of the Drivers of Earnings analysis presented relative to the prior year quarter. The first point to highlight is the 8% growth in core net insurance service result due to increases in expected earnings on insurance contracts in both our Asia and Canada segments. Secondly, an increase of 18% in our core net investment result was mainly due to a release in our expected credit loss, or ECL provision, over the quarter, compared with provisions for certain commercial mortgages in the prior year. This reflects the benign credit environment during the quarter, and the impact of reducing assets with the Global Atlantic reinsurance transaction.

讓我們回顧幻燈片 13 上的核心獲利結果。首先要強調的是，由於亞洲和加拿大分部的保險合約預期收益增加，核心淨保險服務業績成長了 8%。其次，我們的核心淨投資業績成長 18%，主要由於本季我們的預期信用損失（或 ECL 準備金）有所釋放，而去年同期的某些商業抵押貸款準備金則有所減少。這反映了本季良好的信貸環境，以及全球大西洋再保險交易減少資產的影響。

Towards the bottom of the table, you will see that Global WAM was a notable contributor to the results, supported by higher average AUMA, improved margins and expense discipline. These factors were partially offset by higher workforce-related expenses, reflecting strong TSR performance included in Other core earnings.

在表格底部，您將看到 Global WAM 對業績做出了顯著貢獻，這得益於更高的平均 AUMA、更高的利潤率和費用控制。這些因素被更高的勞動力相關費用部分抵消，反映了其他核心收益中包含的強勁的 TSR 表現。

I should also mention the net impact of the reinsurance transaction with Global Atlantic was an $18 million reduction in core earnings. Note that this included some favorable one-time items during the quarter, mostly related to the release of ECL on debt instruments sold. More information on the earnings impact is available in the appendix.

我還應該提到，與 Global Atlantic 的再保險交易的淨影響是核心收益減少 1800 萬美元。請注意，這包括本季度的一些有利的一次性項目，主要與已出售債務工具的 ECL 釋放有關。有關收益影響的更多資訊請參閱附錄。

On to Slide 14. When we announced the reinsurance transaction with Global Atlantic back in December of last year, we had told you that we expect to recognize in net income, $1 billion of unrealized losses from assets disposed as part of this transaction. We actually saw a lower non-core charge of approximately $750 million across several lines, although mostly related to the recognition of unrealized losses. The charge was lower than expected due to a decrease in interest rates since the end of the third quarter of last year, which was the basis of the estimated impact we announced. Of note, there was an offsetting change in OCI, neutralizing the book value impact. We closed this transaction on February the 22nd,and are now focused on future in-force activity.

轉到第 14 張投影片。實際上，我們看到多條業務的非核心費用有所降低，約 7.5 億美元，但這主要與未實現損失的確認有關。由於去年第三季末以來利率下降，該費用低於預期，這是我們宣布的預期影響的基礎。值得注意的是，其他綜合收益 (OCI) 發生了抵消變化，從而抵消了帳面價值的影響。我們於 2 月 22 日完成了這筆交易，現在專注於未來有效的活動。

Lower-than-expected returns on ALDA resulted in a $255 million charge, largely reflecting the ongoing pressure on commercial real estate due to increasing cap rates. The 40% reduction from peak in our U.S. office values reflects the difficult market and, is also a demonstration of our disciplined approach to asset valuations where more than 95% of our real estate portfolio is appraised by external appraisers each quarter. We are encouraged to see continued sequential improvement in our ALDA experience compared to recent periods, and the charge was partially offset by a $216 million gain due to higher-than-expected public equity returns during the quarter. This meant that our net income for the quarter was $1.6 billion, much more in line with our core earnings when you exclude the impact of the reinsurance transaction.

ALDA 的回報低於預期，導致產生了 2.55 億美元的費用，這在很大程度上反映了由於資本化率上升導致商業房地產持續面臨的壓力。我們美國辦公室價值較高峰下降了 40％，這反映了市場的艱難，也證明了我們對資產估值的嚴謹態度，我們 95％ 以上的房地產投資組合每個季度都由外部評估師進行評估。我們很高興地看到，與近期相比，我們的 ALDA 體驗繼續連續改善，並且由於本季度公共股權回報高於預期，該費用被 2.16 億美元的收益部分抵消。這意味著我們本季的淨收入為 16 億美元，如果排除再保險交易的影響，則與我們的核心收益更加一致。

The next few slides will cover the segment view of our results, starting with Asia on Slide 15. The first quarter was another strong quarter with double-digit growth in both top and bottom-line metrics. APE sales increased 13% from prior year quarter, largely driven by growth in bancassurance sales in mainland China as well as growth in Singapore and Japan, partially offset by lower sales in Hong Kong and continued industry headwinds in Vietnam. The overall increase in sales contributed to a 68% and 28% growth in new business CSM and NBV, respectively, which we refer to as our value metrics.

接下來的幾張投影片將介紹我們業績的分部情況，從第 15 張投影片上的亞洲開始。 APE 銷售額較去年同期增長 13%，主要得益於中國大陸銀保銷售額的增長以及新加坡和日本的增長，但香港銷售額的下降和越南持續的行業逆風部分抵消了這一增長。整體銷售額的成長分別推動新業務 CSM 和 NBV 成長 68% 和 28%，我們稱之為價值指標。

We delivered 39% core earnings growth, with meaningful increases in contribution from both Hong Kong, which is our largest in-force business, and Japan.

我們的核心獲利成長了39%，其中來自香港（我們最大的有效業務）和日本的貢獻都有顯著增加。

Moving over to Global WAM's results on Slide 16. We reported very strong net inflows of $6.7 billion for the quarter, continuing our momentum of positive net flows in 13 of the last 14 years in competitive markets. The strong net inflows this quarter were due to higher new plan sales in Retirement. We also saw demand increasing in our Retail business supported by strong equity markets, and we continued to generate strong inflows in our Institutional business. Global WAM also delivered double-digit core earnings growth, supported by higher average AUMA, which increased 9% from prior year quarter, along with our disciplined expense management. To that end, we are starting to see savings as a result of our restructuring efforts in the prior quarter, with core expenses up only 2%, which is much improved from 2023 results.

轉到幻燈片 16 上的 Global WAM 業績。本季強勁的淨流入是由於退休新計劃銷售額增加。我們也看到，在強勁的股票市場的支持下，零售業務的需求不斷增加，並且我們的機構業務繼續產生強勁的資金流入。全球 WAM 也實現了兩位數的核心獲利成長，這得益於更高的平均 AUMA（較去年同期成長 9%）以及我們嚴格的費用管理。為此，我們開始看到上一季重組努力帶來的節約，核心支出僅成長 2%，比 2023 年的業績有很大改善。

Heading over to Canada on Slide 17. We delivered another strong quarter of new business metrics. APE sales increased 54% from prior year quarter, mainly due to higher large-case sales in our Group Insurance business, which was also the main contributor to our 71% growth in new business value. Core earnings increased 3%, primarily driven by business growth and a lower ECL provision, but these were partially offset by lower investment spreads.

前往投影片 17 上的加拿大。 APE銷售額較去年同期成長54％，主要由於團體保險業務大額案件銷售額增加，這也是我們新業務價值增長71％的主要貢獻者。核心獲利成長 3%，主要得益於業務成長和預期信用損失撥備下降，但投資利差下降部分抵消了這些影響。

Slide 18 shows our U.S. segment's results. In the U.S., we saw somewhat of a return of demand from affluent customers, which drove up APE sales, NBV and new business CSM results. The business delivered strong core earnings, which increased 18% from the prior year quarter, mainly reflecting a higher ECL provision in the prior year quarter as well as the impact of higher yields and business growth. This was partially offset by more adverse net insurance experience. In addition, the reinsurance transaction reduced core earnings by USD 19 million.

幻燈片 18 展示了我們美國分部的表現。在美國，我們看到富裕客戶的需求回升，這推高了 APE 銷售額、NBV 和新業務 CSM 業績。該業務的核心獲利表現強勁，較去年同期成長 18%，主要反映了去年同期預期信用損失撥備的增加以及收益率提高和業務成長的影響。但這差異被較不利的淨保險經驗所部分抵銷。此外，再保險交易導致核心收益減少了1,900萬美元。

On to Slide 19 and our balance sheet. We started off the year with a strong LICAT ratio of 138% in the first quarter, which was $24 billion above the Supervisory Target Ratio. Our financial leverage ratio of 24.3% remains within our target ratio of 25%, adding to our ample financial flexibility. Through dividends and share buybacks, we returned over $0.9 billion of capital to shareholders during the [first] (added by company after the call) quarter. As previously announced, we launched a new buyback program in late February related to our reinsurance transaction with Global Atlantic. Following our Canadian UL reinsurance transaction, we announced that we plan to amend the program to purchase up to 5% of our outstanding common shares. We have now received approvals from OSFI and the TSX for the new program, which will return the freed-up capital from the two transactions to shareholders. As such, you will see an acceleration of our buyback activity from the $0.2 billion in the first quarter, to more like $0.6 billion a quarter run-rate for the rest of the year.

前往投影片 19 和我們的資產負債表。今年第一季度，我們的 LICAT 比率高達 138%，比監管目標比率高出 240 億美元。我們的財務槓桿率為24.3%，仍維持在25%的目標範圍內，增強了我們的財務彈性。透過股利和股票回購，我們在[第一]季度（電話會議後公司增加）向股東返還了超過 9 億美元的資本。正如先前宣布的那樣，我們在二月底啟動了一項新的回購計劃，與我們與 Global Atlantic 的再保險交易有關。在我們的加拿大 UL 再保險交易之後，我們宣布我們計劃修改該計劃，購買最多 5% 的已發行普通股。我們目前已獲得 OSFI 和 TSX 對新計劃的批准，該計劃將把兩筆交易中釋放的資本返還給股東。因此，您將看到我們的回購活動從第一季的 2 億美元加速增加到今年剩餘時間每季 6 億美元的水平。

And finally, moving to Slide 20, which summarizes how we are tracking against our medium-term targets. In the first quarter, we exceeded all of our medium-term targets. We also generated 44% of earnings from the Asia region and increased our contribution from highest potential businesses to 67%. As you can see, Asia continues to play a pivotal role in our earnings growth, and we are looking forward to welcoming you to Asia for our in-person Investor Day in June.

最後，轉到投影片 20，它總結了我們如何實現中期目標。第一季度，我們超額完成了所有中期目標。我們也從亞洲地區創造了 44% 的收益，並將最具潛力的業務貢獻提高到 67%。如您所見，亞洲繼續在我們的獲利成長中發揮關鍵作用，我們期待在六月歡迎您來亞洲參加我們的投資者日活動。

This concludes our prepared remarks. Before we move to the Q&A session, (Operator Instructions). Operator, we will now open the call to questions.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。在我們進入問答環節之前，（操作員指示）。接線員，我們現在開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Meny Grauman from Scotiabank.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Meny Grauman。

Just wanted to start off asking a question about Asia. Obviously, very strong results. If I look at the core earnings there, just wondering if there is anything that you would flag that is not sustainable? I guess I see the ECL maybe is a very small component of that, but wondering if there is anything else there that would sort of impact the run rate going forward?

我首先想問一個關於亞洲的問題。顯然，結果非常強勁。如果我看一下那裡的核心盈利，我只是想知道您是否會標記任何不可持續的東西？我認為 ECL 可能只是其中很小的一部分，但我想知道是否有其他因素會對未來的運行率產生影響？

This is Phil and thank you for the question. You are right to point out, it has been a strong core earnings quarter for Asia. In fact, a strong quarter for all of our value metrics across the board. The level of earnings that you see are largely sustainable, and I will peel the onion a bit on this. The driver of growth in core earnings is the fact that we have grown the CSM by adding quality new business over the course of the past 12 to 18 months. And you can see that through the CSM expansion in the balance sheet. And we also had the impact, the favorable impact of the methodology change that took effect from Q4, and we spoke about last quarter. Now, in terms of items within the core earnings this quarter that are, I suppose, not necessarily indicative of the overall run rate, I will highlight two points. One is that Asia, and this is coming from Japan, benefited by approximately USD 9 million in the first quarter from the impact of the Global Atlantic reinsurance transaction. And secondly, you may recall that last year in Q1, in Asia, there was negative policyholder experience through core earnings. This quarter, that was a modest positive of $5 million. And I would expect policyholder experience to vary from quarter-to-quarter and be approximately neutral on average. So, I feel that the core earnings that you are seeing is largely sustainable. That is underpinned by the fundamentals of our business. And we may see some variability from, modest variability from policyholder experience and ECL, I think this is a good indication of the future.

我是菲爾，感謝您的提問。你說得對，本季亞洲的核心獲利表現強勁。事實上，本季我們所有價值指標均表現強勁。您所看到的盈利水平基本上是可持續的，我將對此進行稍微闡述。核心獲利成長的動力來自於我們在過去 12 到 18 個月內透過增加優質新業務實現了 CSM 的成長。您可以透過資產負債表中的 CSM 擴充功能看到這一點。我們也受到了影響，從第四季度開始生效的方法論變化帶來的有利影響，我們在上個季度討論過這一點。現在，就本季核心獲利項目而言，我想，這些項目並不一定能反映整體運作率，我將強調兩點。一是亞洲，尤其是日本，第一季受惠於全球大西洋再保險交易的影響，收益約 900 萬美元。其次，您可能還記得，去年第一季度，亞洲的保單持有人的核心收益體驗不佳。本季度，該利潤小幅上漲，達到 500 萬美元。我預計保單持有人的體驗每季都會有所不同，平均而言大致保持中性。因此，我認為您看到的核心盈利基本上是可持續的。這是我們業務基本面所支撐的。我們可能會看到保單持有人的經驗和 ECL 有一定的變化，我認為這是未來的一個很好的跡象。

And then just as a follow-up, just focusing on sales and specifically, the decline in Hong Kong. If you could just talk to what you are seeing in terms of the MCV sales in particular. And I am wondering if the decline we are seeing there is just a function of the fact that, you had so much growth after coming out of lockdowns? Or, is there any other dynamic there that you are seeing when it comes to Mainland Chinese visitor sales, that would be impacting the results beyond just the fact that you had such a strong reopening?

然後作為後續行動，只關注銷售，特別是香港的下滑。您可以具體談談您對 MCV 銷售情況的看法嗎？我想知道，我們看到的下降是否僅僅是由於你們在解除封鎖後實現瞭如此大的增長？或者，就中國大陸遊客銷售而言，您是否看到其他任何動態，除了您如此強大地重新開放這一事實之外，這些動態會對業績產生影響？

Great. Thank you for the question, the follow-up question, Meny. It has been a really strong quarter in Hong Kong. And as I said last quarter, our focus is on value generation and value metrics. And notably, we have seen 15% growth in new business value in Hong Kong, but it is not just NBV. We have seen growth in core earnings and new business CSM as well. Now the variability in APE is caused by variability in volume through the third-party broker channel, and that is MCV broker channel. And what we are seeing with that channel is really quite fierce competition as well as possibly an element of pent-up demand in the prior year period. But I think the main driver there is intense competition. And when I look at the MCV business that we are sourcing from channels outside of third-party brokers, so the agency channel and the bancassurance channel, we are seeing strong double-digit growth. And that is what I would expect.

偉大的。謝謝你的提問，梅尼，後續的問題。本季，香港業務表現十分強勁。正如我上個季度所說，我們的重點是價值創造和價值指標。值得注意的是，我們看到香港的新業務價值成長了15％，但這不僅僅是新業務價值。我們也看到核心獲利和新業務 CSM 的成長。現在 APE 的變化是由第三方經紀管道（即 MCV 經紀管道）的交易量變化引起的。我們看到該通路的競爭確實相當激烈，而且可能還存在著去年同期被壓抑的需求。但我認為主要的驅動力是激烈的競爭。當我查看我們從第三方經紀商以外的管道（即代理商管道和銀保管道）採購的 MCV 業務時，我們看到了強勁的兩位數成長。這正是我所期望的。

I said many times, the MCV customer segment is a legitimate customer segment that we expect to grow over the medium-term. It reflects approximately 20% to 25% of our business from a new business value perspective in Hong Kong. And that, the other side of that, is that our core business in Hong Kong is our domestic business, and that accounts for 75% to 80% of our NBV in the Hong Kong market. Now, that core strength domestically is really important. And I spoke last quarter of the very strong growth that we have seen in the domestic business. We saw about 15% growth in the fourth quarter of last year. That level of sales has been sustained into the first quarter. Now in terms of outlook for Hong Kong, I am confident that we will continue to see growth in value metrics. This is our focus.

我多次說過，MCV 客戶群是一個合法的客戶群，我們預計該客戶群將在中期內成長。從香港的新商業價值角度來看，它反映了我們香港業務的約 20% 至 25%。另一方面，我們在香港的核心業務是國內業務，這占我們在香港市場新業務價值的 75% 至 80%。現在，國內的核心實力確實非常重要。我上個季度就談到我們國內業務的強勁成長。去年第四季我們的成長率約為15%。這一銷售水準一直維持到第一季。現在就香港的前景而言，我相信我們將繼續看到價值指標的成長。這是我們的重點。

And we get most value from our proprietary channels and exclusive banca channels. We will see some variability in APE from quarter-to-quarter as a result largely of the broker channel. But overall, I feel confident about the future.

我們從專有管道和銀行專屬管道獲取最大價值。我們會看到 APE 在各個季度之間會有所變化，這主要是由於經紀管道的影響。但總的來說，我對未來充滿信心。

Following question is from Gabriel Dechaine from National Bank Financial.

以下問題來自國家銀行金融公司的 Gabriel Dechaine。

I will stick with that line of questioning and then I will switch over to something else. But I am wondering if you are starting to see the impact of the decline in sales on the MCV products because of that regulatory investigation running, call it, across the industry. I want to point that out. And then is there -- it is more of a risk to your sales numbers. The profit impact is probably pretty insignificant if the sales do decline because it is a small portion of your sales and I think it is a lower-margin product. Maybe you can edify me there.

我會繼續問這個問題，然後再轉換話題。但我想知道，由於整個行業正在進行監管調查，您是否開始看到 MCV 產品銷售下降的影響。我想指出這一點。然後就是—這對您的銷售數字來說是一個更大的風險。如果銷售額確實下降，對利潤的影響可能非常小，因為這只是銷售額的一小部分，而且我認為它是一種利潤率較低的產品。也許你可以在那裡啟發我。

Yes. Thanks, Gabriel, for the question. This is Phil again. You are right to highlight the regulatory investigation. This is not anything that is specific to Manulife. The regulatory authorities in Hong Kong have announced an investigation, and conducted an investigation to unlicensed selling of insurance policies to customers from Mainland China. This is limited to the broker channel and has no direct impact on Manulife. Of course, at Manulife, we have robust processes in place to enable compliance with all applicable laws and regulations. You asked whether that investigation in the broker channel is driving the variability that we see in Q1 in APE? It is not. And we are not seeing, at this point, any impact directly from that regulatory investigation.

是的。謝謝加布里埃爾提問。我又是菲爾。您強調監理調查是正確的。這並不是宏利獨有的現象。香港監理機關已宣布展開調查，對無牌向內地客戶銷售保險的行為展開調查。這僅限於經紀管道，對宏利沒有直接影響。當然，在宏利，我們擁有完善的流程以確保遵守所有適用的法律法規。您問過，經紀通路的調查是否導致了我們在第一季看到的 APE 的變化？它不是。目前，我們還沒有看到該監管調查直接產生任何影響。

Although, I will highlight two things. One is that we have seen a decline in the first quarter relative to last year in the broker channel. And that is really driven, as I said earlier, by fierce competition in that channel. But we are seeing growth in our other MCV channels, agency and bancassurance. So, I think that is one important point. I think the second important point is that while we have not seen it yet, it is reasonable to expect that the regulatory actions will or may cause some disruption in the MCV broker channel in the months to come. And that is really, -- I would expect brokers to be reviewing their processes in light of recent regulatory developments.

不過，我想強調兩件事。一是我們看到第一季經紀管道相對於去年有所下滑。正如我之前所說，這實際上是由該管道的激烈競爭所驅動的。但我們看到其他 MCV 通路、代理商和銀保業務正在成長。所以，我認為這是一個重要的觀點。我認為第二個重點是，雖然我們還沒有看到，但有理由預期監管行動將或可能在未來幾個月對 MCV 經紀管道造成一些幹擾。確實如此——我希望經紀人能夠根據最近的監管發展來審查他們的流程。

Now you are right, Gabriel, to highlight that the variability in potential sales from the broker channel has much less of an impact on value metrics. It is lower-margin business, largely because of the product mix, the savings-oriented product mix that comes through that channel. If we look at our Hong Kong business, only 13% of new business value comes from the broker channel. So, it's really quite modest and our results will therefore be resilient to variability in that channel. And earnings, given the IFRS 17 methodology which is driven by CSM and risk adjustment in the balance sheet, I would expect earnings also to be stable regardless of what happens to APE variability.

加布里埃爾，你說得對，要強調的是，來自經紀人管道的潛在銷售額的變化對價值指標的影響要小得多。這是利潤率較低的業務，主要是因為產品組合，即透過該管道銷售的以節省成本為導向的產品組合。如果我們看看我們的香港業務，只有13％的新業務價值來自經紀人管道。所以，它確實相當適中，因此我們的結果將能夠抵禦該管道變化的影響。而收益方面，鑑於 IFRS 17 方法論是由 CSM 和資產負債表中的風險調整所驅動的，我預計無論 APE 波動如何，收益也將保持穩定。

Gabriel, Roy here. I just want to add a couple of quick comments, and I think Phil captured the essence of what is actually happening in Hong Kong and our outlook quite well. But we actually welcome the regulatory scrutiny and focus on MCV and the processes that are critical to selling, and selling appropriately. We have always held a very high bar in terms of the practices that we employ both from a compliance and from a governance perspective. So, actually, we think this is a good thing for the industry to have a higher standard of care applied. And in the long-run, it is going to make this segment a much more sustainable and profitable segment. So, it is something that we have actually been quite pleased with.

加布里埃爾，這是羅伊。我只想補充幾點簡短的評論，我認為菲爾很好地抓住了香港正在發生的事情的本質以及我們的觀點。但我們實際上歡迎監管審查，並專注於 MCV 以及對銷售和適當銷售至關重要的流程。無論從合規性角度或治理角度，我們對所採用的實踐始終保持極高的標準。因此，實際上，我們認為這對於業界應用更高的護理標準是一件好事。從長遠來看，這將使這一領域變得更加永續、更加有利可圖。因此，我們實際上對此感到非常高興。

Got you. My next question, just an update on the legacy process there. I do not know if Marc or Colin have something to add there. I know when you disposed of the LTC block last December, you isolated another $4 billion of portfolio of similar characteristics to what you sold, if that number may be expanded, or if your main struggle is what would you bundle in with that sub portfolio, if you will, because my understanding is that potential buyers would want something in addition to LTC?

明白了。我的下一個問題是關於那裡的遺留流程的更新。我不知道 Marc 和 Colin 是否有話要補充。我知道，當您去年 12 月處置 LTC 區塊時，您隔離了另外 40 億美元的與您出售的具有類似特徵的投資組合，如果這個數字可以擴大，或者您主要的困難是您將把什麼與該子投資組合捆綁在一起，因為我的理解是潛在買家除了 LTC 還想要一些東西？

Thank you, Gabriel. It is Marc. So yes, when we announced the transaction, as you mentioned, obviously, it was a very substantial transaction for us and the industry validated, obviously, our assumptions on our balance sheet tied to LTC and really created a lot of interest in our business in Manulife. And I would say we transacted with a world-class counterparty as well. We had, as you mentioned, some significant interest in the transaction by the other parties around the industry. And as you mentioned, we do have another block of business that has the same vintage and characteristics. And as I am sure you saw in our results for the last little while, the LTC experience is positive, right, which is another positive halo to our block and our performance overall as a firm.

謝謝你，加布里埃爾。是馬克。是的，當我們宣布這項交易時，正如您所說，這顯然對我們來說是一筆非常重大的交易，而且業界顯然也驗證了我們資產負債表上與 LTC 掛鉤的假設，並且確實引起了人們對宏利業務的極大興趣。我想說，我們的交易對手也是世界級的。正如您所說，業內其他各方對此交易表現出了濃厚的興趣。正如您所說，我們確實有另一塊具有相同歷史和特點的業務。我相信您從我們最近的業績中看到了，LTC 的體驗是積極的，對吧，這對我們的業務板塊以及我們作為一家公司的整體表現來說是另一個積極的光環。

And we have demonstrated, obviously, execution capability in this space. So, we do not talk about what is forthcoming, but we do have interest in the block. And we are optimistic that the validation of our assumptions and our experience stand by itself, but we have had interest in the block, and we continue to optimize, as we demonstrated by this Canadian transaction, our overall legacy business, and we do so always with very favorable economics to our shareholders. So -- and we can promise you that is what we continue to do on a daily basis around our in-force.

而且我們顯然已經展示了我們在這個領域的執行能力。因此，我們不談論即將發生的事情，但我們確實對這個區塊感興趣。我們樂觀地認為，我們的假設和經驗的驗證是不言而喻的，但我們對該區塊感興趣，並且我們將繼續優化，正如我們在加拿大的這筆交易中所展示的那樣，我們的整體遺留業務，我們這樣做始終為我們的股東帶來非常有利的經濟效益。所以 — — 我們可以向你們保證，這就是我們每天在部隊中持續做的事情。

A following question is from Doug Young from Desjardin Capital Markets.

以下問題來自 Desjardin Capital Markets 的 Doug Young。

Just want to start with credit and there was an ECL release, as you talked about and there was a release even if you exclude the impact from the sale of the fixed income portfolio around the Global Atlantic deal. And so, it just seems a little counterintuitive to what I am thinking, I guess, given the macro environment. And so -- but I just wanted to kind of dig into a little bit. Are you not seeing any negative migration from Stage 1, 2 and 3? Does it change any forward-looking indicators or model ratings? Or is there anything else unusual to think about from a credit perspective? And I mean, if you can weave in how you think about credit evolving, that would be helpful as well.

只想從信貸開始，有一個 ECL 釋放，正如您談到的，即使排除全球大西洋交易固定收益投資組合出售的影響，也會有一個釋放。所以，考慮到宏觀環境，我想這似乎與我的想法有點違反直覺。所以——但我只是想深入了解一下。您是否沒有看到第 1、2 和 3 階段有任何負面遷移？它是否會改變任何前瞻性指標或模型評級？或者從信用角度來看還有其他不尋常的事情需要考慮嗎？我的意思是，如果你能融入你對信貸發展的看法，這也會很有幫助。

Doug, it is Scott. Thanks for the question. And yes, it was a very good quarter for credit results. Start with that, we were not seeing much of any migration in the portfolio. So that led to very little in the way of addition to the ECL. And having a release is unusual. Normally, we would expect sort of through the cycle $30 million to $50 million addition to the ECL. Of course, it is a fairly benign credit environment. So, we would expect to do better than that until that situation changes. As far as the release goes, which is unusual, there are really 2 factors driving it. One was a small release from the reinsurance transaction. We disposed of a large number of bonds with ECL tagged to that and that led to a $16 million release.

道格，我是史考特。謝謝你的提問。是的，對於信貸業績來說這是一個非常好的季度。首先，我們沒有看到投資組合中有太多的遷移。因此，這導致 ECL 的增加非常少。且發布的情況並不常見。正常情況下，我們預計整個週期內 ECL 會增加 3,000 萬到 5,000 萬美元。當然，這是一個相當良好的信用環境。因此，在情況改變之前，我們希望做得更好。就此次發布而言，這是不尋常的，實際上有兩個因素推動了它。一是來自再保險交易的小規模釋放。我們處置了大量帶有 ECL 標籤的債券，釋放了 1,600 萬美元。

And then you are right, there is, as part of the ECL process, we are required to model out current market conditions, and we use a Moody's model to do that. And what drives that, are largely capital market issues such as equity markets, which were very strong in Q1, credit spreads, which continued to tighten in Q1 as well as other factors such as unemployment, which stayed low. So, the model did result in a modest release. So, those were really the drivers.

您說得對，作為 ECL 流程的一部分，我們需要模擬當前的市場狀況，我們使用穆迪模型來做到這一點。推動這一趨勢的主要因素是資本市場問題，例如股票市場在第一季表現非常強勁，信貸利差在第一季度繼續收緊，以及失業率保持在低點等其他因素。因此，該模型確實產生了適度的釋放。所以，這些才是真正的驅動因素。

And just to clarify, that $30 million to $50 million addition, is that per quarter or per year?

需要澄清的是，增加的 3000 萬到 5000 萬美元是按季度還是按年增加的？

That would be per quarter. And again, you will see that there will be a lot of variability in that in benign environments like today, you should expect to do better. And then to the extent we move into a recession, we will go above that, to get to that long-term average.

這是按季度計算的。而且，您會看到，在像今天這樣的良性環境中會存在很大的可變性，您應該期望做得更好。當我們陷入衰退時，我們就會超越這個水平，達到長期平均水平。

I appreciate that. And then just second, I guess, it is for Steve. Negative lapse experience again in the U.S. life book. I assume that relates to the secondary guarantee business. And I am just wondering how you are feeling around that business around the upcoming actuarial review of that book. Is the experience progressively getting better over the last -- most negative is, it progressively getting better over the last year, is it stand about the same? And if you do have to reset reserves, like do you have offsets elsewhere that you can kind of pull levers on. Just hopefully, to get some color on that.

我很感激。其次，我想，這是給史蒂夫的。美國壽險書中再次出現負面失誤經驗。我認為這與二級擔保業務有關。我只是想知道您對即將對這本書進行精算審查有何感想。在過去的一年裡，體驗是否有所改善——最糟糕的是，它在過去一年裡是否有所改善，但它是否保持大致相同？如果你確實需要重設儲備，那麼你是否在其他地方有可以拉動槓桿的抵銷？只是希望能對此有所了解。

Sure. Doug, thanks for the question. Yes, in terms of what we are seeing on U.S. lapses, we have seen a continuation of some of the trends. Where it is coming from, there is a portion that is coming from earlier duration lapses really related to the economic environment and higher interest rates. That is certainly more a short-term concern. In terms of the protection products, in general, I have commented a few times about how we saw a drop, a discontinuity in lapse rates when the pandemic started. And we saw that across Canadian UL, seg fund products. We have seen it trending back, fully trended back in Canadian UL, which is a similar product, trended back in seg funds, but it is not fully trended back in U.S. life. We do expect that trend to emerge over time.

當然。道格，謝謝你的提問。是的，就我們看到的美國失誤而言，我們看到一些趨勢延續。至於其來源，有一部分來自於早期的存續失效，這實際上與經濟環境和較高的利率有關。這顯然只是一個短期擔憂。就整體防護產品而言，我已多次評論過，當疫情開始時，我們看到了失效率的下降和不連續性。我們在加拿大 UL 和 seg 基金產品中都看到了這一點。我們看到它呈現回升趨勢，在類似的產品加拿大 UL 中呈現完全回升趨勢，在 seg 基金中呈現回升趨勢，但在美國人壽中尚未完全回升。我們確實預期這種趨勢會隨著時間的推移而顯現。

And then, what I would tell you about how are thinking about the actuarial assumption review here, just a little bit of context. As you know, we update assumptions very regularly. And we have reviewed lapse assumptions over the years. The last U.S. lapse review was in 2021, that fully reflected pre-pandemic experience. So, we were up to date. And as a result of those reviews, our long-term assumptions are, they are low. They are below 1%. So, we are taking all this information into consideration as we do our review, and too early to update you at this point, but we will update you as we get through that review later this year.

然後，我想告訴你們關於這裡如何考慮精算假設審查，只是一點點背景資訊。如您所知，我們會定期更新假設。多年來，我們一直在審查失效假設。美國上一次失效審查是在 2021 年，充分反映了疫情前的經驗。因此，我們已經了解了最新情況。根據這些評估的結果，我們的長期假設是，它們較低。它們低於1%。因此，我們在進行審查時會考慮所有這些信息，現在向您更新信息還為時過早，但我們會在今年晚些時候審查完成後向您更新信息。

The following question is from Paul Holden from CIBC.

以下問題來自加拿大帝國商業銀行 (CIBC) 的 Paul Holden。

I want to ask about the strength in Asia Other sales, maybe a few more details behind what drove that strength? And maybe more importantly, how sustainable that may be?

我想問一下亞洲其他地區的銷售實力，也許可以更詳細地介紹一下推動這種實力的因素是什麼？或許更重要的是，這種做法有多可持續？

Great. Thank you, Paul. This is Phil. You are right to highlight that we had a very strong performance in Asia Other markets. APE growth of 20% and a higher growth in value metrics relative to that. What we have seen in 2024, as we start the year and get through Q1 is a broadening of the recovery across multiple markets in Asia Other. And you may recall that I said a few times last year, that the emergence from the pandemic was uneven across Asia. We have seen some evening out of that recovery in 2024, notably with 7 out of 9 of our Asia Other markets delivering double-digit growth in sales. Now when we deep dive, peel the onion into what is going on within Asia, we have seen a record quarter in Mainland China. And we often see seasonality of sales in China, but this first quarter, it has been particularly strong. That is particularly coming from the bancassurance channel.

偉大的。謝謝你，保羅。這是菲爾。您說得對，我們在亞洲其他市場的表現非常強勁。 APE 成長率為 20%，且價值指標相對成長率較高。 2024 年伊始，我們迎來了第一季度，我們看到亞洲其他地區多個市場的復甦範圍不斷擴大。大家可能還記得，我去年說過幾次，亞洲各地擺脫疫情的進程並不平衡。 2024 年，我們看到復甦勢頭有所緩和，尤其是我們 9 個亞洲其他市場中有 7 個實現了兩位數的銷售成長。現在，當我們深入研究、了解亞洲內部正在發生的事情時，我們看到中國大陸的季度業績創下了紀錄。我們經常看到中國的銷售具有季節性，但今年第一季的銷售表現特別強勁。這尤其來自銀保通路。

And while we may see some variability quarter-to-quarter in Mainland China as a result of typical seasonality and other factors. I do feel confident about the future over the medium-term. Now in our Other Emerging markets, Indonesia has been particularly important and is delivering very strong growth, and I look forward to sharing more about that as part of our upcoming Investor Day. And we should not forget about Singapore as well. Singapore has had a really strong start to the year, and that is a very important market to us in APE terms. It is now very similar to Hong Kong in terms of volume. So, through the consistent growth in Asia Other markets and notably Singapore in recent years, we have diversified our portfolio and really developed a strong footprint within ASEAN.

雖然我們可能會看到中國大陸由於典型的季節性和其他因素而出現季度間差異。我確實對中期未來充滿信心。現在，在我們的其他新興市場中，印尼尤其重要並且正在實現非常強勁的成長，我期待在即將到來的投資者日上分享更多有關這方面的資訊。我們也不該忘記新加坡。新加坡今年開局表現強勁，從 APE 角度而言，這對我們而言是一個非常重要的市場。現在從數量上看，它與香港非常相似。因此，透過近年來在亞洲其他市場尤其是新加坡的持續成長，我們實現了投資組合多元化，並真正在東協地區形成了強大的影響力。

Okay. That is great. And then my second question is just bigger picture, higher-for-longer interest rate scenario seems increasingly probable. The way I view it for Manulife, there is probably some puts and takes. So, where I would like to particularly focus on is what does that mean for the net investment result, did not increase as much as I would have expected this year. So, maybe you can address that as well. But kind of what we should expect for that line with higher for longer? And then two, what does that mean for the ALDA experience, does that mean maybe a period of underperformance relative to long-term assumed returns, for a little bit longer. So those two components, please?

好的。那太棒了。我的第二個問題是，從更大角度來看，長期維持高利率的情況似乎越來越有可能。就我對宏利金融的看法而言，它可能存在一些利弊。所以，我想特別關注的是，這對淨投資結果意味著什麼，今年的淨投資結果並沒有像我預期的那樣增加那麼多。所以，也許你也可以解決這個問題。但是，我們應該對這條更高、更長的線路抱持怎樣的期望呢？其次，這對 ALDA 的經驗意味著什麼，是否意味著相對於長期假定的回報，一段時間內可能會出現表現不佳的情況？那麼，請問是這兩個組件嗎？

Yes. Paul, that is a great question. And let me start, and I will sort of provide some high-level comments, and I will hand over to Steve and then Scott might want to chime in as well, because there is a lot to unpack with your question. And I think the first comment I would make is that higher rates are positive for Manulife. We have said this in the past, and quite frankly, it is a function of the fact that it means more attractive propositions for our customers in terms of the products that we offer, but it also talks to the fact that our surplus portfolio obviously benefits from the re-pricing of our fixed income portfolio, and that just simply flows through. If you look at 2023, we saw about a $200 million pre-tax, year-on-year benefit from higher rates. This year, if rates stay where they are currently, it is probably about a $40 million benefit in '24 versus '23.

是的。保羅，這個問題問得真好。首先，我會提供一些高層次的評論，然後我會把時間交給史蒂夫，然後斯科特可能也想加入討論，因為你的問題有很多內容需要解答。我認為我首先要說的是，更高的利率對宏利來說有利。我們過去曾說過這一點，坦白說，這意味著我們提供的產品對客戶來說更具吸引力，但這也說明我們的盈餘投資組合顯然受益於固定收益投資組合的重新定價，而這只是順其自然而已。如果你展望 2023 年，我們會發現更高的利率帶來的稅前收益比去年同期上漲約 2 億美元。今年，如果利率維持在目前的水平，那麼24年的收益可能比23年的收益高出約4,000萬美元。

So, it moderates a little bit because of the big impact that we saw and the big uplift that we saw in '23. And largely, we have hedged our portfolio and reduced the volatility and the reliance on movements in rates or quite frankly, even equity markets, but it still is a very big positive for us as we look forward. And that does not include any of the benefits from URR, which is our long-term assumption, which again, where we stand today in terms of the 30-year is significantly higher, at least in some jurisdictions versus the ultimate reinvestment rate. So, in summary, what I would leave you with is we are a beneficiary of higher rates. We are not expecting that rates are going to go much higher from here. We think that possibly the short end of the curve will come down a little bit, but the long end of the curve may be a little bit more sticky. And if you think about this from a multi-decade perspective, rates at the long end, whilst a little bit higher than where they have been for the last couple of decades, are still from a historic perspective, quite reasonable. So, we think that again will be a bit of a tailwind for our business, both in terms of the earnings, but equally importantly, from the perspective of the attractiveness of our products in the market. Steve?

因此，由於我們看到的巨大影響和23年的巨大提升，它有所緩和。在很大程度上，我們已經對投資組合進行了對沖，降低了波動性和對利率或坦率地說甚至是股票市場變動的依賴，但展望未來，這對我們而言仍然是一個非常大的利好。這還不包括 URR 帶來的任何好處，這是我們的長期假設，同樣，就目前情況而言，30 年期利率明顯較高，至少在某些司法管轄區內與最終再投資利率相比是如此。所以，總而言之，我想說的是，我們是更高利率的受益者。我們預計利率不會進一步上升。我們認為，曲線的短端可能會稍微下降一點，但曲線的長端可能會更堅挺。如果從數十年的角度來考慮這個問題，長期利率雖然比過去幾十年的水平略高一些，但從歷史角度來看仍然相當合理。因此，我們認為，這對我們的業務來說將再次是一個推動力，不僅在盈利方面，而且同樣重要的是，從我們的產品在市場上的吸引力的角度來看。史蒂夫？

Yes, I will just emphasize a couple of things. Roy commented on where we saw the benefit of higher rates coming through. That is largely in the surplus portfolio. We do have very robust hedging programs. So, we do not like to take interest -- large amounts of interest rate risk. And -- so you won't see it coming through the segment so much. But one other emphasis is the URR. I used to get questions all the time because our URR was above where the long-term rates are, and that was a potential headwind for the company. Now it is a potential tailwind if rates stay where they are because in our major geographies, we have URRs, that are now lower generally than the current long-term rates.

是的，我只想強調幾點。羅伊評論了我們看到的提高利率的好處。這主要體現在盈餘投資組合中。我們確實有非常強大的對沖計劃。所以，我們不喜歡承擔利息──大量的利率風險。並且—因此，您不會在該片段中看到太多這樣的情況。但另一個重點是 URR。我以前經常被問到問題，因為我們的 URR 高於長期利率，這對公司來說是一個潛在的阻力。如果利率維持在當前水平，現在這將是一個潛在的順風，因為在我們主要地區，我們的 URR 通常低於目前的長期利率。

A follow-up on the -- on how it affects the ALDA portfolio. So, interest rates do have an impact, small move in rates will not really matter, but when we see pretty significant rate moves, it will have an impact. And we saw this when rates came down. When rates came down, that did provide a bit of a tailwind to current valuations. But you may recall, at that point in time, we actually reduced the future expected returns because if it is simply discount rates coming down, that means you get it today, but then the prospective returns are going to be lower. And we are seeing the opposite result today with higher rates. We are seeing some valuations come down. But our expected future returns are now higher. And these assets are backing very long liabilities, we intend to hold these, and we will get that back in higher future returns. Now it affects different asset classes a little bit differently within our ALDA portfolio. Private equity is not much affected by long-term rates, actually short-term rates matter more there because that is how the underlying companies finance themselves. And so, I do think, as Roy mentioned, we would expect short rates to come down in the future, and that will be a bit of a tailwind for private equity, whereas the longer-term rates more affect the real estate portfolio, those are the discount rates that are being used, and we are not really expecting those to come down much going forward. In fact, they have gone up by 50-plus basis points so far this year, and that represents a little bit of a continuing headwind on the real estate portfolio for the remainder of the year.

後續問題是關於它如何影響 ALDA 投資組合。因此，利率確實會產生影響，利率的小幅變動實際上並不重要，但當我們看到相當顯著的利率變動時，就會產生影響。當利率下降時我們就看到了這一點。當利率下降時，這確實為當前的估值提供了一點推動力。但你可能還記得，在那個時間點，我們實際上降低了未來的預期回報，因為如果只是折現率下降，那就意味著你今天可以得到它，但預期回報會更低。但如今我們看到的卻是相反的結果，利率上升。我們看到一些估值正在下降。但我們預期的未來回報現在更高了。這些資產支持著非常長期的負債，我們打算持有這些資產，並將在未來獲得更高的回報。現在，它對我們的 ALDA 投資組合中不同資產類別的影響略有不同。私募股權不受長期利率太大影響，實際上短期利率對私募股權的影響更大，因為這是基礎公司融資的方式。因此，我確實認為，正如羅伊所提到的，我們預計未來短期利率將會下降，這對私募股權來說將是一個順風，而長期利率對房地產投資組合的影響更大，這些是正在使用的折現率，我們實際上並不期望這些利率在未來會下降太多。事實上，今年迄今為止，它們已經上漲了 50 多個基點，這意味著今年剩餘時間內房地產投資組合將繼續面臨阻力。

Following question is from Mario Mendonca from TD Securities.

以下問題來自道明證券的 Mario Mendonca。

First, on the global minimum tax. Colin, would it be fair to say that we will start to see the increase in the Asia and wealth management tax rates as early as next quarter? And should we be sort of budgeting for something like 15% tax rate in Asia?

第一，關於全球最低稅率。 Colin，是否可以說我們最早會在下個季度開始看到亞洲和財富管理稅率的增加？我們是否應該為亞洲 15% 左右的稅率編制預算？

Good to hear from you. Yes, you are right. It all depends on when GMT is substantively enacted in Canada. And so, our expectation is Q2 and effective 01/01/24. So, if that happens, we will have a catch up in the second quarter for both the first quarter and the second quarter. You highlighted Asia, that is right. I mean you can see from our effective tax rates that we pay a little lower than average tax in our Asian businesses, and that is predominantly in Hong Kong. So, you would expect those rates to creep up. As we said before and actually on the last call, a good guide for our future effective tax rate range is about 17% to 22%.

很高興收到你的來信。是的你是對的。這一切都取決於加拿大何時實質實施格林威治標準時間。因此，我們的預期是第二季並於 2024 年 1 月 1 日生效。因此，如果發生這種情況，我們將在第二季度趕上第一季和第二季的水平。您強調了亞洲，這是正確的。我的意思是，從我們的有效稅率可以看出，我們在亞洲業務中繳納的稅率略低於平均水平，主要是在香港。因此，你可以預期這些利率將會逐漸上升。正如我們之前所說，實際上在上次電話會議上，我們未來有效稅率範圍的良好指導值約為 17% 至 22%。

Slightly different question. For 2 quarters, in the last quarter, we saw the change in CSM, the methodology change. This quarter, we are seeing a greater allocation of investment income I believe, to Asia and wealth management. Now maybe, -- what I am trying to get at here is the greater allocation investment into Asia and wealth management, is this something that's happened before? Or is this like a first-time thing?

稍微不同的問題。在過去兩個季度中，尤其是在上個季度，我們看到了 CSM 的變化，即方法論的變化。我相信，本季我們的投資收益將更多地分配給亞洲和財富管理。現在可能——我在這裡想說的是，向亞洲和財富管理的配置投資增加，這是以前發生過的事情嗎？或者說這只是第一次發生的事？

Yes, you are right. And just to be clear, what you are talking about is the allocation of surplus across the businesses. So, we take -- we carry out an exercise every year, once a year. We look at overall surplus and we allocate it to each of the segments accordingly. Now because yields have increased and actually certain businesses have got bigger, some businesses are getting bigger allocations than others. Because we did it at the start of the year, we sort of -- there is a bit of a lag. So, you will not obviously notice it in Q2, Q3, Q4, but -- so Q1, it seems a little more outsized. But it really reflects the yield environment and the change in size of the businesses, completely unrelated to the CSM, the yield cycle basis change that happened last quarter.

是的你是對的。要先明確的是，你談論的是各企業之間的盈餘分配。所以，我們每年都會進行一次演習。我們考慮總體盈餘，並將其相應地分配給每個部門。現在，由於收益率上升，而且某些企業的規模實際上已經擴大，因此有些企業獲得的分配比其他企業更大。因為我們是在年初就這樣做的，所以我們有點——有一點滯後。因此，您不會在 Q2、Q3、Q4 中明顯注意到它，但是——在 Q1 中，它似乎更加突出一些。但它確實反映了收益環境和業務規模的變化，與上個季度發生的收益週期基礎變化（CSM）完全無關。

Yes, I appreciate that they are not related, but they -- I connect them because in both cases, they actually put Manulife in a better light. So, what I am asking is, did you expect any other changes of this nature that either maybe allocate more income to the high-growth segments or speed up the pace of CSM amortization or anything else of that nature?

是的，我知道它們沒有關聯，但我把它們聯繫起來是因為在這兩種情況下，它們實際上都讓宏利顯得更好。所以，我想問的是，您是否預計會有其他類似變化，例如為高成長部分分配更多收入，或加快 CSM 攤銷速度，或其他類似變化？

An interesting question, Mario. I mean I would not argue that it paints Manulife in a particularly better light, because when I look at everyone's valuation models, no one really looks at us on a sum of the parts valuation methodology. So, I do not view it as a way for us to improve the Manulife performance, but we are very proud of our Asia and our GWAM performance. In terms of outward looking perspective, there is nothing on the horizon that you would expect of this nature or magnitude.

這是一個有趣的問題，馬裡奧。我的意思是，我不會爭辯說它將宏利描繪得特別好，因為當我查看每個人的估值模型時，沒有人真正根據各部分總和的估值方法來看我們。因此，我並不認為這是我們提高宏利績效的一種方式，但我們對亞洲和宏利資產管理的表現感到非常自豪。從外部視角來看，地平線上沒有你所期望的這種性質或規模的事物。

Following question is from Lemar Persaud from Cormark Securities.

以下問題來自 Cormark Securities 的 Lemar Persaud。

Bigger picture question here for my first one, I am probably front running the Investor Day, but the core ROE has been ahead of your target for the past kind of 4 quarters. Are there some specific factor that you expect to cause Manulife to move back down to that target? Or is the kind of mid-16% ROE an appropriate way to think about this company now? Yes, any thoughts would be helpful on that one.

對於我的第一個問題，這裡有一個更大的問題，我可能在投資者日處於領先地位，但在過去的 4 個季度中，核心 ROE 一直領先於你的目標。您認為是否存在某些特定因素會導致宏利重新回到該目標？或者說，16% 左右的 ROE 是否是現在看待這家公司的合適方式？是的，任何想法都會對此有幫助。

Yes. Lemar, Roy here. Let me tackle that and to some extent, front-running our Investor Day. So, I would certainly welcome everyone a), to join that, but b), to highlight that we are going to be talking about core ROE and our outlook for that in the future. ROE and the improvement of our returns has been a huge focus for us over the last 6 years, and I have mentioned this on prior calls, but we have been very deliberate about reducing the risk profile of our franchise and improving the returns. Our ROE, back in 2017 was circa 11%, and we took that up to almost 16% at the end of '23. That story has continued into '24 off the back of really solid momentum and good results. We delivered a core ROE in Q1 of 16.7%, 2% up on prior year. We are really pleased with that progress, and it has been a function of a couple of things.

是的。勒馬爾，這是羅伊。讓我來解決這個問題，並在某種程度上領先於我們的投資者日。因此，我當然歡迎大家 a) 加入其中，但 b) 需要強調的是，我們將討論核心 ROE 以及我們對此的未來展望。在過去 6 年裡，ROE 和回報率的提高一直是我們關注的重點，我在之前的電話會議中也提到過這一點，但我們一直非常謹慎地降低特許經營的風險狀況並提高回報率。 2017 年我們的 ROE 約為 11%，到 23 年底我們將其提升至近 16%。憑藉著強勁的勢頭和良好的業績，這個故事一直延續到 24 年。我們第一季的核心股本回報率為 16.7%，比去年同期成長了 2%。我們對這項進展感到非常高興，這是由幾件事共同作用的結果。

The first is that we have divested low ROE businesses. We freed up $11 billion worth of capital over the last 6 years, and that is capital that was being dedicated towards low ROE franchises, and obviously, deploying that capital towards buybacks. In fact, we bought back $5.5 billion worth of shares over the last 5 years has been obviously a tailwind to our ROE story. At the same time, we have increased our capital buffers. So, that has been something that, again, we are very proud of, and it gives us ammunition for future actions in the future. The second big focus for us is that we have improved the ROE on our new business across the board. Every segment has improved the lifetime return on capital, of all of our new business, which means that as we write new business, it is going to improve our earnings and our return outlook for the future.

第一，我們剝離了低ROE的業務。我們在過去 6 年中釋放了價值 110 億美元的資本，這些資本原本用於投資低 ROE 特許經營權，顯然，這些資本將用於回購。事實上，我們在過去 5 年裡回購了價值 55 億美元的股票，這顯然對我們的 ROE 故事起到了推動作用。同時，我們增加了資本緩衝。所以，這再次讓我們感到非常自豪，它為我們未來的行動提供了彈藥。我們關注的第二個重點是全面提升新業務的 ROE。每個部門都提高了所有新業務的終身資本回報率，這意味著，隨著我們開展新業務，我們的獲利能力和未來的回報前景將會提高。

As we grow those higher ROE businesses, as you have seen and heard, Asia and WAM in particular, that changes the portfolio mix of our franchise and has been, again, another big positive. The final thing I would say is that on the expense front, we have driven a much greater focus on efficiency, which again is accretive to ROE. So, in summary, I would not say that we would expect to go backwards from where we are to the 15-plus percent guidance. We think that what we are able to deliver in '23 is a baseline, and we see further upside for improvement. I am going to have to ask you to sort of wait to hear more about that at our Investor Day.

正如您所看到和聽到的，隨著我們發展那些具有更高 ROE 的業務，尤其是亞洲和 WAM，這改變了我們特許經營的投資組合，並再次帶來了另一個重大利好。我最後要說的是，在費用方面，我們更重視效率，這又有利於提高 ROE。因此，總而言之，我不會說我們預計會從目前的水平倒退到 15% 以上的指導水平。我們認為，我們在23年能夠實現的目標是一個基準，我們也看到了進一步改進的空間。我將不得不請您等待，以便在我們的投資者日上聽到有關此事的更多消息。

That is fair. And then my second question, just continuing on the credit losses from an earlier question. You guys mentioned $30 million to $50 million being kind of normal and explain the reasoning for the release this quarter. But I am wondering does Manulife make use of expert credit judgment to smooth out credit loss provisioning? Or is it simply whatever the model spits out is what makes its way into the DOE, so, we should expect kind of more volatility in the ECL line.

這很公平。然後是我的第二個問題，繼續討論之前問題的信用損失。你們提到 3000 萬到 5000 萬美元是正常的，請解釋一下本季發布的原因。但我想知道宏利是否利用專家的信用判斷來平滑信用損失準備？或者只是模型輸出的結果進入了 DOE，因此，我們應該預期 ECL 線會出現更大的波動。

Lemar, it is Scott. So, there is a model which is formulaic, which is from Moody's that we and a number of other people use. But we also have a process to go through it and apply judgment on top of that. And we have applied that judgment in the past. We tend to apply it in a more conservative nature, I would say, particularly if things are happening after the end of the quarter, if you looked at the first quarter of last year, I believe the model suggested we should have a release, and we were a bit concerned given what was going on with Silicon Valley Bank and so forth. So, we overrode the model not to do that. So yes, we do have a governance process and apply expert judgment on top of the model.

勒馬爾，我是史考特。因此，有一個公式化的模型，它來自穆迪，我們和許多其他人都在使用。但我們也要經歷一個過程，並在此基礎上做出判斷。我們過去也曾運用過這項判斷。我想說，我們傾向於以更保守的方式應用它，特別是如果事情發生在季度末之後，如果你看去年第一季度，我相信模型表明我們應該發布一個數據，考慮到矽谷銀行等發生的事情，我們有點擔心。因此，我們推翻了模型，不再這樣做。所以是的，我們確實有一個治理流程，並在模型之上運用專家判斷。

Following question is from Tom MacKinnon from BMO Capital Markets.

以下問題來自 BMO 資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets) 的 Tom MacKinnon。

I think, Roy, you mentioned higher rates are a positive in the surplus portfolios, benefiting from this re-pricing. If I look at expected earnings on surplus though at [$253 million] in the quarter, it is down over the last 5 quarters. So, help me understand that. And obviously, your surplus portfolio must be growing, your LICAT is growing, your remittances are increasing as well. So, help me understand why that earnings on surplus is falling sequentially and has fallen over the last 4 quarters? And how should we be thinking about earnings on surplus going forward?

羅伊，我認為，你提到的更高的利率對於盈餘投資組合來說是一個積極因素，它將受益於這次重新定價。如果我看一下本季的預期盈餘收益 [2.53 億美元]，那麼過去 5 個季度以來，這一數字有所下降。因此，請幫助我理解這一點。顯然，您的盈餘投資組合一定在成長，您的 LICAT 在成長，您的匯款也在增加。那麼，請幫我理解為什麼盈餘收益會連續下降，並且在過去 4 個季度中一直下降？那我們該如何考慮未來的盈餘收益呢？

Tom, it is Colin. You are right. Earnings on surplus fell $11 million quarter-on-quarter and actually $30 million year-on-year. There are 2 things happening here. The first is the share buyback is reducing surplus, and that had a $20 million impact throughout the entire year. The second item, you will see this in the last quarter is the line item that you refer to does not capture the earnings on surplus for our GWAM business. And so, as part of the surplus allocation exercise that I talked to Mario about, GWAM got a little bit more surplus allocated to that. So that reduced the line item that you are referring to. But you are right, in terms of the yields going up, yields went up 2.8% to 2.9% during the quarter. But because of all the allocation and inter-account balance settlements, the actual surplus amount fell from $39 billion to $38 billion.

湯姆，我是科林。你是對的。盈餘收益比上一季下降 1,100 萬美元，比去年同期下降 3,000 萬美元。這裡發生了兩件事。首先，股票回購減少了盈餘，這對全年產生了 2,000 萬美元的影響。第二項，您將在上個季度看到，您所提到的項目並未反映出我們 GWAM 業務的盈餘收益。因此，作為我與馬裡奧談論的盈餘分配活動的一部分，GWAM 獲得了更多的盈餘分配。這樣就減少了您所指的項目。但您說得對，就收益率上升而言，本季收益率上升了 2.8% 至 2.9%。但由於全部分配和帳戶間餘額清算，實際盈餘金額從390億美元下降至380億美元。

So, should we be thinking that this number should -- with increases in buybacks that it should continue to decline going forward? Or it just stabilizes -- what you lose in the buyback is offset by what you are gaining from just generally having more surplus. How should we be thinking about that going forward?

那麼，我們是否應該認為，隨著回購的增加，這個數字應該會繼續下降？或者它只是穩定下來——你在回購中損失的錢會被你從通常擁有的更多盈餘中獲得的錢所抵消。我們今後該如何思考這個問題？

I think -- well, first point -- and sorry, you did ask this in the first part of the question, is Q1 is a good run rate to consider for the rest of the year. Yes, as we make money and we are returning capital through dividends and buybacks, you would expect a fairly stable surplus balance. So, no great movements there. And just as a -- to remind you, for every 50 basis points increase in interest rates, we will see $25 million of earnings coming through this line. So those numbers are also quite modest relative to movements in interest rates.

我認為 - 嗯，第一點 - 抱歉，您確實在問題的第一部分問到了這個問題，第一季的運行率是今年剩餘時間內值得考慮的良好水平。是的，當我們賺錢並且透過股利和回購返還資本時，您會期望獲得相當穩定的盈餘餘額。因此，那裡沒有什麼大動靜。需要提醒的是，利率每增加 50 個基點，我們就會看到 2,500 萬美元的收益透過這條線路流出。因此，相對於利率變動而言，這些數字也相當溫和。

And then a follow-up with the expected investment in earnings. That is flat year-over-year. Now what you end up having here is you have got higher rates. So, I think this is kind of net of the discount on the reserves, but still you would assume that that spread is probably, if anything, has picked up, how should we be thinking about that expected investment earnings line going forward? And why it is just relatively flat year-over-year?

然後跟進預期的投資收益。與去年同期相比持平。現在你最終得到的是更高的利率。所以，我認為這是準備金折扣的淨值，但你仍然會認為，如果有的話，利差可能已經回升，我們應該如何考慮未來的預期投資收益線？為什麼與去年同期相比相對持平？

Yes. Tom, it is Steve. There is a couple of things going on in this quarter. One is we do see a reduction from the Global Atlantic transaction of about $20 million in the quarter. And then as we implemented IFRS 17 last year, there were a couple of methodology refinements, which is a bit of a headwind on that investment earnings. There is a partial offset where a portion got moved actually up into the insurance service results in the short-term insurance business. The Q1 of this year is a good run rate that we expect to grow as the business grows over time.

是的。湯姆，我是史蒂夫。本季發生了幾件事。一是我們確實看到本季 Global Atlantic 的交易減少了約 2000 萬美元。然後，當我們去年實施 IFRS 17 時，進行了一些方法改進，這對投資收益造成了一些不利影響。其中，有一部分被實際轉移到短期保險業務的保險服務結果中，這是部分抵銷。今年第一季的運作率很好，我們預計隨著業務的成長，運行率還會繼續成長。

Our following question is from Nigel D'Souza from Veritas Investment Research.

以下問題來自 Veritas Investment Research 的 Nigel D'Souza。

I wanted to touch on your ALDA dispositions this quarter. I noticed that the sale of ALDA assets mainly comprised of private equity, timberland and infrastructure. So, it is not proportional to your current ALDA portfolio. And what I am getting at here is if that continues as you go through more ALDA dispositions, is that going to result in ALDA portfolio that becomes more indexed to real estate? And does that have any implications for expected investment returns or volatility of ALDA experience going forward?

我想談談您本季的 ALDA 配置。我注意到 ALDA 資產的出售主要包括私募股權、林地和基礎設施。所以，它與您目前的 ALDA 投資組合不成比例。我想說的是，如果這種情況在 ALDA 處置過程中持續下去，是否會導致 ALDA 投資組合與房地產更加掛鉤？這對預期投資報酬率或 ALDA 未來波動有何影響？

Sure, Nigel, it is Scott. Thanks for the question. So yes, we -- as you point out, we have largely covered off the amount of ALDA sales we need for the Global Atlantic transaction. And I will point out we did it at values a bit above of where we had last valued those investments. And a couple of thoughts went into what parts of the portfolio to sell. One was we really did want to lean into private equity. It is the most volatile part of the portfolio, and it has grown over the years given the good performance there. So that was sort of a proactive move to reduce the size of that portfolio.

當然，奈傑爾，我是史考特。謝謝你的提問。所以是的，正如您所指出的，我們已經基本上涵蓋了全球大西洋交易所需的 ALDA 銷售額。我要指出的是，我們當時的估值略高於上次對這些投資的估值。並且對要出售投資組合的哪些部分進行了幾次思考。一是我們確實想依賴私募股權。它是投資組合中最不穩定的部分，由於其良好的表現，它的規模多年來一直在增長。因此，這是一種減少投資組合規模的主動舉措。

As you would expect, we did not do anything in real estate, given that the bid offer in that market is wider than anywhere else. And we do expect that bid offer to narrow. We have seen it start to narrow already. And we certainly would have plans to continue to rebalance the portfolio away from these transactions based on the sizes we want. And I would expect over the next couple of years, while we did not do anything in the really short-term given the kind of disruption in that market that we will rebalance the portfolio to where we want it. So, I do not see real estate becoming really a bigger proportion of the ALDA portfolio going forward.

正如你所料，我們沒有在房地產領域做任何事情，因為該市場的出價範圍比其他任何地方都更廣。我們確實預計競標範圍會縮小。我們看到它已經開始變窄。而且，我們肯定會根據我們想要的規模，制定計劃，繼續平衡投資組合，遠離這些交易。我希望在接下來的幾年裡，儘管考慮到市場混亂的情況，我們在短期內不會採取任何行動，但我們將重新平衡投資組合，使其達到我們想要的水平。因此，我並不認為房地產在未來 ALDA 投資組合中所佔的比重會變得更大。

Roy here, I just might chime in and add a couple of thoughts. The first is that the $1.7 billion sell-down of ALDA that relates to the GA reinsurance transaction reduces our ALDA by about 6%, and we have, through Scott's leadership, worked very hard to diversify our ALDA portfolio over the years. ALDA comprised of about 50% real estate -- commercial real estate some 10 years ago and now it represents approximately 30% or slightly less than that. So, actually our portfolio is actually quite diverse. And actually, that is what we like. We like to see a diverse portfolio because it allows us to weather all sorts of economic environments, which I think puts us in a very strong position.

我是 Roy，我只是想插嘴補充一些想法。首先，與 GA 再保險交易相關的 17 億美元 ALDA 出售使我們的 ALDA 減少了約 6%，並且在 Scott 的領導下，多年來我們一直努力實現我們的 ALDA 投資組合多元化。大約 10 年前，ALDA 由大約 50% 的房地產（商業房地產）組成，而現在這一比例約為 30% 或略低。所以實際上我們的投資組合是相當多元的。事實上，這正是我們喜歡的。我們希望看到多元化的投資組合，因為它使我們能夠經受各種經濟環境的考驗，我認為這使我們處於非常有利的地位。

Okay. That makes sense. And if I could just have some general questions about Asia. That is a strong growth driver for you. You want that, I believe, to get to Asia and wealth to get 50% of your core earnings. So just two questions here. Could you remind us on the number of agents that is declining in Asia. What is the trend that is driving that given the growth? And then the second aspect is just more recent market volatility in regards to the Japanese yen. Are there any implications for your franchise in Japan from yen volatility other than currency translation?

好的。這很有道理。我可以問一些關於亞洲的常見問題嗎？這對您來說是一個強大的成長動力。我相信，你想要的是到亞洲去獲取財富，從而獲得核心收益的 50%。這裡只有兩個問題。您能否提醒我們亞洲代理商的數量正在減少。推動這成長的趨勢是什麼？第二個面向是日圓近期的市場波動。除了貨幣換算以外，日圓波動對您在日本的特許經營權還有什麼影響嗎？

Well, thank you, Nigel, for the question. This is Phil. I will start with your question on agent numbers. And what we have seen in the first quarter is actually stability with the fourth quarter. Year-on-year, you will see a decline, and that has been driven by Vietnam and Mainland China. But I think what is more important than absolute agent numbers is actually the productivity of agents. And this is consistent with our strategic focus, and we have been talking about this for many years, professionalism, full-time agents that are equipped with digital tools in order to be highly productive. And we see that as being consistent with the notion of helping customers identify more complex financial planning needs that they have, which we believe is good for customers, but it is also good for us in terms of the quality of business that we write and the quality of agents that we attract. So new business value per active agent is actually up by 41% year-on-year despite the year-on-year decline in number of agents.

好吧，謝謝你，奈傑爾，提出這個問題。這是菲爾。我將從有關代理號碼的問題開始。我們在第一季看到的情況實際上與第四季持穩定。與去年同期相比，你會看到下降，這是由越南和中國大陸推動的。但我認為比絕對的經紀人數量更重要的是經紀人的生產力。這與我們的策略重點是一致的，我們多年來一直在談論這一點，即專業化、配備數位工具的全職代理，以提高生產力。我們認為這與幫助客戶確定他們更複雜的財務規劃需求的理念是一致的，我們相信這對客戶有好處，但就我們開展的業務品質和吸引的代理商的品質而言，這對我們也有利。因此，儘管代理商數量同比有所下降，但每位活躍代理商的新業務價值實際上比去年同期增長了 41%。

The second thing that you asked about was Japan and the impact of the weaker yen. Now as you may know, most of our business in Japan is foreign currency denominated business, largely U.S. dollars, some Australian dollar as well. And what we see is, as the yen declines, actually, there is more interest in diversification within investment portfolios of our customers in Japan. Now we are naturally very cautious when it comes to our sales process here. But we have launched some new products in Japan over the course of the last quarter. That has driven a quite strong rebound in sales and value metrics as well. So, I do feel optimistic about the prospects for Japan.

您問到的第二件事是日本和日圓貶值的影響。大家可能知道，我們在日本的大部分業務都是以外幣計價的業務，主要是美元，也有一些澳元。我們看到，隨著日圓貶值，日本客戶對投資組合多元化的興趣實際上有所增加。現在，我們在銷售流程方面自然非常謹慎。但我們上個季度在日本推出了一些新產品。這也推動了銷售和價值指標的強勁反彈。因此，我確實對日本的前景感到樂觀。

But just to remind, when we think about Japan, our strategy is one of value maximization. We are seeing that strategy being very successful in terms of earnings generation and value metric generation. And I expect that to continue in our medium-term expectations for Japan, a high single-digit growth in key value metrics and core earnings.

但需要提醒的是，當我們考慮日本時，我們的策略是價值最大化。我們看到該策略在獲利創造和價值指標創造方面非常成功。我預計，日本的中期預期將繼續如此，關鍵價值指標和核心收益將保持高個位數成長。

And Nigel, while we might have some earnings currency translation, and by the way, the larger part on that is the U.S. appreciation, which is obviously a positive for us from a currency translation perspective. In each of the markets that we operate in, we typically match our asset currency with our liability currency. So, we do not like to take foreign currency risk in terms of matching our liabilities with the assets in the markets that we operate in.

奈傑爾，雖然我們可能會有一些收益與貨幣換算有關，但順便說一句，其中更大的原因是美元升值，從貨幣換算的角度來看，這對我們來說顯然是有利的。在我們經營的每個市場中，我們通常將資產貨幣與負債貨幣相匹配。因此，我們不願意在將我們的負債與我們經營的市場中的資產相匹配時承擔外匯風險。

(Operator Instructions) The following question is from Tom Gallagher from Evercore ISI.

（操作員指示）以下問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Tom Gallagher。

Just a few questions on U.S. life insurance. Steve, just a follow-up on the SGUL lapse rate question. I know you mentioned that your ultimate lapse rate assumption is below 1%. Can you be a little more specific? And the reason I ask is, if it is around 90 basis points, I think that would still probably be at a level above the industry study that was conducted a few years ago, from what I understand the average lapse rate that they were implying was about 40 to 50 basis points. And if you are on the higher end, like above the 40 to 50, would that still imply you may have an impact if there is a reset made with the actuarial review?

關於美國人壽保險，我有幾個問題想問一下。史蒂夫，我只是想跟進 SGUL 失效率的問題。我知道您提到過，您的最終失效率假設低於 1%。能更具體一點嗎？我之所以問這個問題，是因為如果它在 90 個基點左右，我認為這仍然可能高於幾年前進行的行業研究的水平，據我所知，他們暗示的平均失效率約為 40 到 50 個基點。如果您的薪酬處於較高水平，例如高於 40 到 50，這是否仍然意味著如果精算審查進行重置，您可能會產生影響？

Yes. Sure, Tom. Thanks. And as I am sure you can imagine, the -- it is not as simple as one lapse rate, which is why I refer to less than 1. It varies by single, survivorship, size of policy, etc. So, there is a variety in there. In terms of our ultimate lapse rates, when I look at it, I think we are in line with what the industry has got overall. I think what we are seeing more right now is what is happening in the current environment with respect to the pandemic and how does that trend out over time.

是的。當然，湯姆。謝謝。我相信您可以想像，這並不像一個失效率那麼簡單，這就是我提到小於 1 的原因。就我們的最終失效率而言，我認為我們與整個產業的整體失效率是一致的。我認為我們現在更多地看到的是當前疫情環境下發生的情況，以及隨著時間的推移其趨勢如何。

Got you. So, you would be more in line with, we will say, that industry study that had come out and the implication there you'd be at least directionally close to that level. Is that fair to say?

明白了。因此，我們會說，您會更符合已經發布的行業研究結果，並且這意味著您至少在方向上會接近該水平。這樣說公平嗎？

That is my view, yes.

是的，這是我的看法。

Okay. Great. And then the second question is, this last quarter, we have seen kind of a number of reinsurance and litigation charges for the U.S. life insurance business. Some insurers took charges for cost of insurance litigation. Others due to arbitrations with reinsurers for rate increases. Curious if you have either one going on? And if so, whether you've provisioned for these?

好的。偉大的。第二個問題是，上個季度，我們看到美國人壽保險業務出現了一些再保險和訴訟費用。有些保險公司收取保險訴訟費用。其他則因與再保險公司就費率上漲進行仲裁而產生。好奇您是否正在進行其中任何一項？如果是的話，您是否已為此做好了準備？

Yes. Thanks, Tom. In terms of reinsurance, we have got ongoing relationships with our reinsurance partners, and that is a pretty comprehensive relationship, including looking at new business, future opportunities and a variety of in-force management initiatives to drive alignment of interest on performance of the business. Over the years, part of that in-force management has at certain times resulted in rate increase requests from reinsurers. We work with them constructively on that. It is an ongoing part of managing this business.

是的。謝謝，湯姆。在再保險方面，我們與再保險合作夥伴保持著持續的合作關係，這是一種非常全面的關係，包括尋找新業務、未來機會和各種現行管理舉措，以推動利益與業務績效的協調。多年來，部分有效管理在某些時候導致再保險公司提出提高費率的請求。我們在此方面與他們進行了建設性的合作。這是管理這項業務的持續部分。

In certain situations, we dispute those right to rate increases, but look at it really as part of the ongoing relationship management. What I would tell you is that when we look at our reserves in aggregate, and that is how we manage the balance sheet, when we look at reserves in aggregate, I am confident in saying they are overall adequate and prudent including the ongoing management of these reinsurance relationships.

在某些情況下，我們會對提高利率的權利提出異議，但實際上將其視為持續關係管理的一部分。我想告訴你的是，當我們從總體上看我們的儲備金時，這就是我們管理資產負債表的方式，當我們從總體上看儲備金時，我有信心說，它們總體上是充足和審慎的，包括對這些再保險關係的持續管理。

Got it. And the COI litigation?

知道了。還有 COI 訴訟嗎？

I will pass to Brooks on that one.

我將把這一問題轉交給布魯克斯。

Yes. Thanks, Tom. It is Brooks Tingle. So, we did undertake a COI increase on a block of UL policies in 2018. As is the case in the industry when those events occur, litigation ensues. We have now settled all federal and state litigation regarding that. 100% of the disputes have been resolved. We made certain payments. But importantly, the increases stay in effect going forward.

是的。謝謝，湯姆。是布魯克斯·丁格爾。因此，我們確實在 2018 年對一批 UL 保單提高了 COI。我們現在已經解決了與此有關的所有聯邦和州訴訟。 100%的爭議已解決。我們進行了一定的付款。但重要的是，這一成長趨勢今後仍將持續有效。

We have no further questions registered at this time. I would now like to turn the meeting back over to Mr. Ko.

我們目前沒有其他問題。現在我想將會議交還給 Ko 先生。

Thank you, operator. We will be available after the call if there are any follow-up questions. Have a good day, everyone.

謝謝您，接線生。如果有任何後續問題，我們將在通話結束後為您提供協助。祝大家有美好的一天。

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

謝謝。會議現已結束。請立即斷開您的線路，感謝您的參與。