大都會人壽保險 (MET) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。

Welcome to the MetLife fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings and outlook conference call.

歡迎參加大都會人壽第四季及 2024 年全年獲利及展望電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

Before we get started, I refer you to the cautionary note about forward-looking statements in yesterday's earnings release and to risk factors discussed in MetLife's SEC filings.

在我們開始之前，我請您參閱昨天的收益報告中關於前瞻性陳述的警告，以及大都會人壽提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中討論的風險因素。

With that, I will turn the call over to John Hall, Global Head of Investor Relations.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給全球投資者關係主管約翰霍爾 (John Hall)。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝您，接線生。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

We appreciate you joining us for MetLife's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings and near-term outlook call.

感謝您參加大都會人壽 2024 年第四季財報和近期展望電話會議。

Before we begin, I'd point you to the information on non-GAAP measures on the Investor Relations portion of metlife.com in our earnings release and in our quarterly financial supplements, which you should review.

在我們開始之前，我想先向您指出 metlife.com 的投資者關係部分中有關非 GAAP 指標的信息，這些信息包含在我們的收益報告和季度財務補充文件中，您應該查看一下。

On the call this morning are Michel Khalaf, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John McCallion, Chief Financial Officer and Head of MetLife Investment Management.

參加今天早上電話會議的有總裁兼執行長 Michel Khalaf；以及大都會人壽投資管理部財務長兼主管 John McCallion。

Also participating in the discussion are other members of senior management.

其他高階主管也參與了討論。

Last night, we released a set of supplemental slides which address the quarter as well as our near-term outlook.

昨晚，我們發布了一系列補充幻燈片，涉及本季以及我們的近期展望。

They are available on our website.

您可在我們的網站上找到它們。

John McCallion will speak to those supplemental slides in his prepared remarks.

約翰·麥卡利恩將在他的準備好的演講中討論這些補充幻燈片。

An appendix to the slides features outlook sensitivities, disclosures, GAAP reconciliations, and other information which you should also review.

投影片的附錄介紹了前景敏感度、揭露、 GAAP 對帳以及您也應該查看的其他資訊。

After prepared remarks, we will have a Q&A session, which will end promptly at the top of the hour.

在準備好的發言之後，我們將進入問答環節，並將在整點時準時結束。

As a reminder, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up.

提醒一下，請將自己限制為一個問題和一個後續問題。

With that, over to Michel.

現在，交給米歇爾 (Michel)。

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，約翰，大家早安。

Last night, MetLife reported fourth quarter and full-year results that underscore the strength and resilience of our market-leading portfolio of businesses in the face of constant change.

昨晚，大都會人壽公佈了第四季度和全年業績，凸顯了我們市場領先的業務組合在不斷變化中的實力和韌性。

While unemployment in the US has stayed at low levels and economic growth appears healthy, the path and pace of anticipated interest rate cuts remain in question due to concerns about persistent inflation.

儘管美國失業率一直保持在低水平且經濟成長看似健康，但由於對持續通膨的擔憂，預期降息的路徑和步伐仍存在疑問。

MetLife's capacity to execute across changing environments has been a hallmark of our success.

大都會人壽在不斷變化的環境中的執行能力一直是我們成功的標誌。

This past year, 2024 brought to a close the five-year period associated with our Next Horizon strategy.

過去的一年，2024年，結束了與我們的「下一個地平線」策略相關的五年期。

Despite a global pandemic, a short-lived banking crisis, and volatile interest rates, we delivered on all our Next Horizon financial commitments, return on equity, free cash flow, and operating leverage.

儘管遭遇了全球疫情、短暫的銀行業危機和波動的利率，我們仍履行了所有「Next Horizo​​n」財務承諾，實現了股本回報率、自由現金流和經營槓桿。

The market has recognized our strong fundamental performance as MetLife stock outperformed the Standard & Poor's 500 index in 2024.

大都會人壽股票在 2024 年的表現優於標準普爾 500 指數，市場已經認可了我們強勁的基本面表現。

MetLife did not go quietly into the end of the year, and we do not rest on our laurels.

大都會人壽並沒有悄悄走向年底，我們也不會滿足於現狀。

In December, we hosted a well-received Investor Day to roll out our New Frontier strategy, along with a refreshed set of financial commitments.

12 月，我們舉辦了廣受好評的投資者日，推廣了我們的「新前沿」策略，以及一系列新的財務承諾。

While the basic tenets of Next Horizon, focus, simplify, and differentiate, aren't going anywhere, MetLife is at a different place than it was five years ago.

儘管 Next Horizo​​n 的基本原則（專注、簡化和差異化）不會改變，但大都會人壽與五年前相比已經發生了變化。

We are more front-footed and more able to play offense.

我們的進攻更加積極，也更有進攻能力。

Our New Frontier strategy is more oriented towards growth.

我們的「新前沿」策略更注重成長。

And by that, I mean responsible growth.

我指的是負責任的成長。

To build on this, we have identified four strategic priorities as part of New Frontier.

在此基礎上，我們確定了新前沿的四個策略重點。

Together, they drive nearly 80% of adjusted earnings today and will fuel strong growth through the five-year New Frontier strategy.

他們共同推動了目前近 80% 的調整後收益，並將透過五年新前沿戰略推動強勁成長。

The first is further extending our leadership in group benefits.

一是進一步擴大我在團體福利方面的領導地位。

The second is capitalizing on our unique retirement platform.

第二是利用我們獨特的退休平台。

The third is accelerating growth in asset management, while the fourth is expanding in high-growth international markets.

第三是加速資產管理業務成長；四是拓展高成長的國際市場。

Again, here at MetLife, we do not stand still.

再說一遍，在大都會人壽，我們不會停滯不前。

Along with the rollout of our New Frontier strategy, we announced several important transactions that activate across our new strategic priorities and which we believe will drive shareholder value for years to come.

隨著我們新前沿戰略的推出，我們宣布了幾項重要交易，這些交易激活了我們的新戰略重點，我們相信這些交易將在未來幾年推動股東價值。

In December, MetLife and General Atlantic announced the formation of Chariot Re which will be a Bermuda-based life and annuity reinsurance company.

12 月，大都會人壽和泛大西洋資本集團宣布成立 Chariot Re，這是一家總部位於百慕達的人壽和年金再保險公司。

We anticipate a combined equity investment of over $1 billion and that Chubb will join us as an anchor investor.

我們預計總股權投資將超過 10 億美元，而且 Chubb 將作為基石投資者加入我們。

Chariot Re will serve the growing demand for life and retirement solutions around the world.

Chariot Re 將滿足全球日益增長的人壽和退休解決方案需求。

The strategic use of reinsurance allows us to position MetLife to capture the growth in these trends and add to enterprise value.

策略性地使用再保險使我們能夠讓大都會人壽抓住這些趨勢的成長機會並增加企業價值。

Chariot Re will also leverage MetLife's deep insurance and investing expertise as well as the investment capabilities of General Atlantic.

Chariot Re 也將利用大都會人壽的深厚保險和投資專業知識以及泛大西洋資本集團的投資能力。

Also in December, we announced an agreement to acquire PineBridge Investments, a leading global asset manager with approximately $100 billion in assets under management.

此外，在 12 月，我們宣布了一項協議，收購 PineBridge Investments，這是一家領先的全球資產管理公司，管理的資產約為 1000 億美元。

PineBridge will substantially add to MetLife Investment Management by expanding its public and private credit offerings especially on an international basis.

PineBridge 將透過擴大其公共和私人信貸產品（尤其是在國際範圍內）大幅增強大都會投資管理的實力。

Finally, MIM signed an agreement to acquire the high-yield and bank loan, the strategic fixed income, and the small cap equity teams from Mesirow Financial with about $6 billion of assets managed by those teams.

最後，MIM 簽署協議，從 Mesirow Financial 收購高收益和銀行貸款、策略性固定收益和小型股股票團隊，這些團隊管理的資產約 60 億美元。

Our New Frontier strategy is more than just words on a page.

我們的「新前沿」策略不只是紙上談兵。

To measure our progress and hold ourselves accountable, we have established new five-year commitments.

為了衡量我們的進展並承擔責任，我們制定了新的五年承諾。

We have introduced adjusted earnings per share as a new metric for MetLife.

我們引入了調整後每股收益作為大都會人壽的一項新指標。

We are committed to achieving double-digit adjusted EPS growth over the course of the New Frontier period with 60% driven by business and margin growth and the balance from disciplined capital management.

我們致力於在新前沿期間實現兩位數的調整後每股收益成長，其中 60% 來自於業務和利潤率的成長，其餘則來自於嚴格的資本管理。

We have increased our adjusted return on equity target range to 15% to 17%, up from our previous target range of 13% to 15%.

我們已將調整後的股本回報率目標範圍從先前的 13% 至 15% 提高至 15% 至 17%。

We have also committed to cut another 100 basis points from our prior direct expense ratio target of 12.3% during the five-year period.

我們也承諾在五年內將直接費用率目標從先前的 12.3% 再降低 100 個基點。

And finally, we have committed to $25 billion of free cash flow over the five-year period, up from our prior five-year $20 billion commitment.

最後，我們承諾在五年內提供 250 億美元的自由現金流，高於先前五年 200 億美元的承諾。

You'll see when John discusses our 2025 outlook, these commitments are in alignment with our expectation for the near term.

當約翰討論我們的 2025 年展望時，您會看到這些承諾與我們對近期的預期一致。

Now turning to our fourth-quarter 2024 results.

現在來談談我們的 2024 年第四季業績。

Last night, we reported adjusted earnings of $1.5 billion or $2.09 per share, up 14% from the prior year period.

昨晚，我們報告調整後收益為 15 億美元，即每股 2.09 美元，較去年同期增長 14%。

Excluding notable items in both periods, we reported adjusted earnings of $2.08 per share, up 8%.

除去兩個時期的顯著項目，我們報告的調整後每股收益為 2.08 美元，成長 8%。

Variable investment income, or VII, was higher in the quarter due to improved private equity fund performance.

由於私募股權基金業績改善，本季可變投資收益（VII）增加。

And we saw good momentum across most of our businesses.

我們的大多數業務都呈現良好的發展勢頭。

Shifting to the full year 2024.

轉向 2024 年全年。

We generated adjusted earnings excluding notable items of $5.8 billion.

扣除重要項目後，我們的調整後收益為 58 億美元。

Strong volume growth and favorable underwriting along with market factors helped drive our results.

強勁的交易量成長、有利的核保以及市場因素推動了我們的業績成長。

Pointing to our capital efficiency, MetLife posted an adjusted ROE of 15.2% for the year, above our target range.

大都會人壽的資本效率已提升，全年調整後的淨資產收益率 (ROE) 為 15.2%，高於我們的目標範圍。

And our direct expense ratio was 12.1%, beating our Next Horizon target range.

我們的直接費用率為 12.1%，超過了我們的 Next Horizo​​n 目標範圍。

Our Group Benefits business continues to demonstrate its leadership position in what I believe to be the most attractive segment of US Life Insurance.

我們的團體福利業務繼續展現其在我認為的美國人壽保險最具吸引力的領域的領導地位。

Group Benefits generated adjusted earnings excluding notable items of $1.7 billion in 2024.

2024 年，集團福利費用調整後收益（不包括重要項目）為 17 億美元。

Full year sales were up 8% on strong growth in national accounts.

由於全國帳戶強勁增長，全年銷售額增長了 8%。

This is a business where we believe that scale, technology, and discipline will carry the day.

我們相信，在這個行業中，規模、技術和紀律將會取得勝利。

We believe MetLife has the capacity to continue to grow faster than the market, driven by the many scale benefits associated with our size.

我們相信，大都會人壽有能力持續以高於市場的速度成長，這得益於我們規模所帶來的許多規模優勢。

In the New Frontier, our formula for Group Benefits growth is simple, more employers, more products, and more employee participation.

在新前沿，我們團體福利成長的公式很簡單：更多的雇主、更多的產品和更多的員工參與。

And we are actively driving each of these elements.

我們正在積極推動每一個要素。

Moving to Retirement and Income Solutions, or RIS.

轉向退休和收入解決方案（RIS）。

Adjusted earnings excluding notables totaled $1.6 billion in the year.

扣除重要利潤後的調整後利潤總額為 16 億美元。

RIS continued to demonstrate the strength and breadth of its liability generation capabilities in 2024.

2024 年，RIS 繼續展現其負債生成能力的實力和廣度。

Our liability exposures grew 3.4% in the year, above the midpoint of our prior outlook range, with strong contributions from structured settlements, UK longevity and funded reinsurance, and US pension risk transfer.

我們的負債曝險在今年成長了 3.4%，高於我們先前預測範圍的中點，其中結構化結算、英國長壽和基金再保險以及美國退休金風險轉移做出了強勁貢獻。

Shifting to our international businesses, Asia posted adjusted earnings excluding notables of $1.7 billion in 2024, up 21% on the rebound in VII.

轉向我們的國際業務，亞洲在 2024 年公佈的調整後收益（不包括重要收益）為 17 億美元，比 VII 的反彈增長 21%。

General account AUM grew 5% on a constant currency basis.

以固定匯率計算，一般帳戶 AUM 成長了 5%。

It was also a historic year for our Latin America business, which saw record adjusted earnings excluding notables of $877 million despite substantial currency headwinds.

對於我們的拉丁美洲業務來說，這也是歷史性的一年，儘管面臨巨大的匯率阻力，但我們的拉丁美洲業務調整後收益（不包括重要收益）仍達到創紀錄的 8.77 億美元。

Our expanded product portfolio in the region and our investments in digital distribution place us in the pole position to further grow in this important region.

我們在該地區擴大的產品組合以及我們在數位分銷方面的投資使我們在這一重要地區佔據了進一步發展的有利位置。

When I look across our business results for the year, what stands out is the balance of our adjusted earnings across segments.

當我回顧我們全年的經營績效時，最引人注目的是我們各部門調整後收益的平衡。

Our three largest segments, Group Benefits, RIS, and Asia, all posted adjusted earnings in the neighborhood of $1.7 billion.

我們最大的三個部門，團體福利、RIS 和亞洲，調整後收益均約為 17 億美元。

I have framed MetLife's balance and diversification as being our super power, something that has enabled us to generate the type of all-weather performance achieved in 2024.

我把大都會人壽的平衡和多樣化視為我們的超能力，這使我們能夠在 2024 年實現全天候的表現。

Moving to capital management.

轉向資本管理。

In the fourth quarter, our buyback activity was restricted due to pending announcements.

第四季度，由於尚未公佈的公告，我們的回購活動受到限制。

In total, we still repurchased nearly $400 million of our common stock in the fourth quarter.

整體而言，我們在第四季仍回購了近4億美元的普通股。

We have started the new year strong, having repurchased roughly $470 million of our common stock in January.

我們以強勁的勢頭開啟了新的一年，一月份回購了約 4.7 億美元的普通股。

For the full year 2024, we returned approximately $4.7 billion to shareholders through $3.2 billion of our common stock repurchases and $1.5 billion of common stock dividends.

2024 年全年，我們透過 32 億美元的普通股回購和 15 億美元的普通股股息向股東返還了約 47 億美元。

In closing, 2024 marks the end of Next Horizon and the beginning of New Frontier, where we are starting from a position of strength and with a greater emphasis on responsible growth.

最後，2024 年標誌著「下一個地平線」的結束和「新前沿」的開始，我們將從實力出發，更加重視負責任的成長。

MetLife operates in highly attractive markets with deep competitive moats that we've constructed carefully over time.

大都會人壽在極具吸引力的市場中運營，擁有我們經過長期精心構建的深厚競爭護城河。

And we are poised to capitalize on the many global tailwinds, which have informed our New Frontier strategy.

我們已準備好利用全球的諸多順風，這些順風為我們的新前沿戰略提供了資訊。

Met is well positioned to deliver strong, responsible growth; attractive returns; and with lower risk -- not one or the other, but all three.

Met 已準備好實現強勁、負責任的成長；可觀的回報；且風險較低——不是其中之一，而是三者兼而有之。

And that is MetLife's unique value proposition.

這就是大都會人壽獨特的價值主張。

Now I'll turn it over to John to cover our performance and outlook in greater detail.

現在我將讓約翰更詳細地介紹我們的表現和展望。

Thank you, Michel, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，米歇爾，大家早安。

I will start with the 4Q '24 supplemental slides, which covers highlights of our financial performance including an update on our liquidity and capital position.

我將從 24 年第四季的補充幻燈片開始，其中涵蓋了我們財務表現的亮點，包括我們的流動性和資本狀況的最新情況。

In addition, I will discuss our near-term outlook.

此外，我將討論我們的近期前景。

Starting on page 3, we provide a comparison of net income to adjusted earnings in the fourth quarter and full year of 2024.

從第 3 頁開始，我們對 2024 年第四季和全年的淨收入與調整後收益進行了比較。

Net income was $1.2 billion and $4.2 billion for the fourth quarter and full year of '24, respectively.

24年第四季和全年淨收入分別為12億美元和42億美元。

The difference between net income and adjusted earnings is attributable to net derivative losses primarily due to the rise in long-term interest rates and the strengthening of the US dollar.

淨收入和調整後收益之間的差額主要歸因於長期利率上升和美元走強造成的淨衍生性商品損失。

That said, derivative losses were partially offset by market risk benefit or MRB remeasurement gains due to higher interest rates.

儘管如此，由於利率上升，衍生性商品損失被市場風險收益或 MRB 重估收益部分抵消。

In addition, net investment losses were largely the result of normal trading activity on the portfolio in a rising interest rate environment and credit remains stable.

此外，投資淨損失主要是由於利率上升環境下投資組合的正常交易活動以及信貸保持穩定所致。

As highlighted on the bottom of the page, we had two notable items in the current quarter that net to a positive impact to adjusted earnings of $10 million.

正如頁面底部所強調的，本季我們有兩個值得注意的項目，對調整後收益產生了 1000 萬美元的正面影響。

This was primarily due to interest associated with a tax refund partially offset by higher asbestos litigation reserves in the quarter.

這主要是由於本季度退稅相關的利息被較高的石棉訴訟準備金部分抵消。

On page 4, we provide a year-over-year comparison of fourth quarter adjusted earnings by segment, excluding total notable items in both periods.

在第 4 頁中，我們提供了按部門劃分的第四季度調整後收益與去年同期的比較情況，不包括兩個時期內的顯著項目總額。

Adjusted earnings, excluding total notable items, were $1.4 billion, up 1% and 3% on a constant currency basis.

調整後收益（不包括總值得注意的項目）為 14 億美元，以固定匯率計算成長 1% 和 3%。

The increase was primarily driven by higher variable investment income and solid volume growth, which were partially offset by less favorable recurring interest and expense margins compared to the previous year.

成長的主要原因是可變投資收入增加和銷售穩健成長，但與前一年相比，經常性利息和費用利潤率較低，部分抵消了這些成長。

Adjusted earnings per share, excluding total notable items, were $2.08 and up 8% and 10% on a constant currency basis.

調整後每股盈餘（不包括總值得注意的項目）為 2.08 美元，以固定匯率計算分別成長 8% 和 10%。

Moving to the businesses.

轉向企業。

Group Benefits adjusted earnings were $416 million, down 11% from the prior year quarter.

團體福利調整後收益為 4.16 億美元，較去年同期下降 11%。

The key driver was less favorable nonmedical health underwriting margins compared to the prior year.

主要驅動因素是與前一年相比，非醫療健康承保利潤率較低。

The non-medical health interest-adjusted benefit ratio was 71.8%,.

非醫療健康利息調整福利比率為71.8%。

Although above prior year, it was in line with expectations and within our annual target range of 69% to 74%.

儘管高於去年同期，仍符合預期，且在我們 69% 至 74% 的年度目標範圍內。

The Group Life mortality ratio was 83.2% for the quarter.

本季團體人壽死亡率為 83.2%。

For the full year, the ratio was 84.5%, at the bottom end of our 2024 target range of 84% to 89%.

就全年而言，該比例為 84.5%，位於我們 2024 年目標範圍 84% 至 89% 的底端。

Turning to the top line, Group Benefits adjusted PFOs on a full year basis were up 4% year over year.

從營業收入來看，全年集團福利調整後的 PFO 年比成長 4%。

Taking participating contracts into account which dampened growth by roughly 100 basis points, the underlying PFOs were up approximately 5% year over year, within our 2024 target growth range up 4% to 6%.

考慮到參與合約抑制了約 100 個基點的成長，基礎 PFO 年比成長約 5%，在我們 2024 年的目標成長範圍內，即成長 4% 至 6%。

RIS adjusted earnings were $386 million in 4Q of '24, down 8% year over year.

RIS 24 年第四季調整後收益為 3.86 億美元，年減 8%。

The primary drivers were lower recurring interest margins and less favorable underwriting, partially offset by higher variable investment income.

主要驅動因素是經常性息差下降和承保條件不佳，但可變投資收益上升部分抵消了這一影響。

Solid volume growth also contributed to the year-over-year results.

銷量的穩定成長也為業績年增率做出了貢獻。

RIS total investment spreads were 112 basis points in the fourth quarter, up 6 basis points sequentially mainly due to higher variable investment income as our core spread remained flat at 108 basis points, consistent with expectations.

RIS 總投資利差在第四季為 112 個基點，比上一季上升 6 個基點，這主要由於可變投資收益增加，而我們的核心利差保持穩定在 108 個基點，與預期一致。

RIS adjusted PFOs were up 26%, primarily driven by growth across several products, most notably PRT, including UK-funded reinsurance.

RIS 調整後的 PFO 上漲了 26%，主要得益於多種產品的成長，最顯著的是 PRT，包括英國資助的再保險。

As we highlighted at Investor Day, we completed our inaugural funded reinsurance transaction for approximately $300 million, demonstrating the successful relationships that we have built with leading UK insurers.

正如我們在投資者日強調的那樣，我們完成了首次約 3 億美元的融資再保險交易，證明了我們與英國領先保險公司建立的成功關係。

This brings our total PRT inflows for both the US and UK combined to approximately $6.7 billion for 2024.

這使得我們 2024 年美國和英國的 PRT 總流入量達到約 67 億美元。

Moving to Asia.

移居亞洲。

Adjusted earnings were $443 million, up 50% and 52% on a constant currency basis primarily due to higher variable investment income and favorable underwriting margins, which included positive reserve refinements that benefited adjusted earnings by roughly $30 million.

調整後收益為 4.43 億美元，以固定匯率計算成長 50% 和 52%，這主要歸因於更高的可變投資收入和有利的承保利潤率，其中包括積極的準備金細化，使調整後收益受益約 3000 萬美元。

For Asia's full year 2024 key growth metrics, general account assets under management on an amortized cost basis were up 5% year over year on a constant currency basis and sales were down 5% on a constant currency basis versus 2023.

對於亞洲 2024 年全年的關鍵成長指標，以攤銷成本計算的管理一般帳戶資產以固定匯率計算年增 5%，以固定匯率計算的銷售額與 2023 年相比下降 5%。

Lower Japan sales were partially offset by other Asia markets, which were up 21%, most notably due to solid growth in Korea, India, and China.

日本銷售額的下降部分抵消了其他亞洲市場的銷售額成長 21% 的影響，最主要的是由於韓國、印度和中國的強勁成長。

In Japan, sales were down 18% year over year, primarily due to the impact of yen volatility on foreign currency products.

日本的銷售額較去年同期下降了18%，主要原因是日圓波動對外幣產品的影響。

Latin America adjusted earnings were $201 million, down 3% but up 10% on a constant currency basis primarily due to higher volume growth across the region, partially offset by lower Chilean encaje returns versus a strong Q4 '23.

拉丁美洲調整後收益為 2.01 億美元，下降 3%，但按固定匯率計算增長 10%，這主要由於該地區銷量增長較高，但與 23 年第四季度相比，智利 encaje 的回報較低，部分抵消了這一影響。

Latin America's top line continues to perform well, although reported growth rates are being masked by recent currency headwinds.

儘管近期的貨幣逆風掩蓋了報告的成長率，但拉丁美洲的營收仍持續表現良好。

Adjusted PFOs were down 3% but up 9% on a constant currency basis driven by strong growth and solid persistency across the region.

受該地區強勁成長和穩固持續性的推動，調整後的 PFO 下降了 3%，但以固定匯率計算則上漲了 9%。

EMEA adjusted earnings were $59 million, up 26% and 31% on a constant currency basis, primarily driven by solid volume growth and lower tax charges in the quarter.

歐洲、中東和非洲地區調整後收益為 5,900 萬美元，以固定匯率計算成長 26% 和 31%，主要得益於本季銷量穩定成長和稅率降低。

This was partially offset by less favorable expense margins and underwriting margins year over year.

但這變化被同比費用利潤率和承保利潤率的下降部分抵消。

EMEA adjusted PFOs were up 10% and 13% on a constant currency basis, reflecting strong sales across the region.

歐洲、中東和非洲地區調整後的 PFO 以固定匯率計算分別上漲 10% 和 13%，反映出該地區銷售強勁。

MetLife Holdings adjusted earnings were $153 million, down 2%, largely driven by foregone earnings as a result of the reinsurance transaction that closed in November of 2023.

大都會人壽控股調整後收益為 1.53 億美元，下降 2%，主要由於 2023 年 11 月完成的再保險交易導致的收益損失。

Favorable life underwriting was a partial offset.

優惠的人壽承保可以部分抵消這一影響。

Corporate and other adjusted loss was $209 million versus an adjusted loss of $156 million in the prior year.

該公司及其他調整後虧損為 2.09 億美元，而去年調整後虧損為 1.56 億美元。

Higher expenses and taxes were partially offset by higher variable investment income year over year.

較高的費用和稅收被同比較高的可變投資收入部分抵消。

The company's effective tax rate on adjusted earnings in the quarter was 23.5%, modestly below our 2024 guidance range of 24% to 26%.

該公司本季調整後收益的有效稅率為 23.5%，略低於我們預期的 2024 年 24%​​ 至 26% 的預期範圍。

On page 5, this chart reflects our pretax variable investment income for the four quarters and full year of 2024.

第 5 頁的圖表反映了我們 2024 年四個季度和全年的稅前可變投資收益。

Variable investment income was $293 million in Q4 driven by the private equity portfolio, which had an average return of 1.8% in the quarter.

第四季可變投資收入為 2.93 億美元，主要受私募股權投資組合推動，本季平均回報率為 1.8%。

Our real estate and other funds had an average return of essentially zero in the quarter.

我們的房地產和其他基金本季的平均回報率基本上為零。

As a reminder, PE and real estate and other funds are reported on a one-quarter lag and accounted for on a mark-to-market basis.

需要提醒的是，PE和房地產等基金的報告時間落後一個季度，並且採用市價法進行核算。

For the full year, variable investment income, or VII, was $1 billion, below our 2024 target of approximately $1.5 billion, but well ahead of the prior year.

全年而言，可變投資收益（VII）為 10 億美元，低於我們 2024 年約 15 億美元的目標，但遠高於前一年。

Real estate and other funds accounted for most of the shortfall, while PE returns were largely in line with our annual 2024 expected returns.

房地產和其他基金佔了大部分缺口，而 PE 回報與我們對 2024 年年度預期回報基本一致。

On page 6, we provide VII post-tax by segment and corporate and other for the four quarters and full year 2024.

在第 6 頁，我們提供了 2024 年四個季度和全年按部門、公司及其他劃分的稅後 VII 數據。

As reflected in the chart, Asia, RIS, and MetLife Holdings continue to hold the largest proportion of VII assets given their long-dated liability profiles.

如圖所示，鑑於其長期負債狀況，亞洲、RIS 和大都會人壽控股繼續持有 VII 資產的最大比例。

However, as a reminder, each business has its own discrete portfolio aligned and matched to its liabilities.

不過，需要提醒的是，每個企業都有自己與其負債一致且相符的獨立投資組合。

Asia's VII portfolio outperformed in the quarter, generating more than 50% of the total.

亞洲 VII 投資組合在本季表現出色，佔總收益的 50% 以上。

Turning to page 7.

翻到第 7 頁。

This chart shows a comparison of our direct expense ratio over eight quarters and full year 2023 and 2024.

這張圖表顯示了我們八個季度以及 2023 年和 2024 年全年的直接費用率比較。

Our direct expense ratio 4Q of '24 was elevated at 13.1%, reflecting the impact from seasonal enrollment costs and group benefits as well as higher employee-related costs and technology initiatives.

我們的24年第四季的直接費用率上升至13.1％，反映了季節性入學成本和團體福利以及更高的員工相關成本和技術舉措的影響。

That said, as we've highlighted previously, we believe our full year direct expense ratio is the best way to measure performance due to fluctuations in quarterly results.

儘管如此，正如我們之前所強調的那樣，我們認為，由於季度業績的波動，全年直接費用率是衡量業績的最佳方式。

For the full year 2024, our direct expense ratio was 12.1%, below our 2024 target of 12.3%.

2024 年全年，我們的直接費用率為 12.1%，低於 2024 年 12.3% 的目標。

We believe this result once again demonstrates our consistent execution and focus on a sustained efficiency mindset.

我們相信這個結果再次證明了我們始終如一的執行力和對持續效率思維的關注。

I will now discuss our cash and capital position on page 8.

我現在將在第 8 頁討論我們的現金和資本狀況。

Overall, MetLife is well capitalized with more than ample liquidity.

整體而言，大都會人壽資本充足，流動性充足。

We had share repurchases of roughly $400 million in the fourth quarter and have repurchased shares totaling $470 million in January.

我們在第四季回購了約 4 億美元的股票，1​​ 月回購股票總額達到 4.7 億美元。

In terms of statutory capital for our US companies, preliminary 2024 statutory operating earnings were approximately $4 billion, while net income was approximately $2.9 billion.

就我們美國公司的法定資本而言，2024 年初步法定營業收入約為 40 億美元，淨收入約為 29 億美元。

Statutory operating earnings decreased by approximately $500 million year over year primarily driven by impacts of the reinsurance transaction in November of 2023 and lower net investment income, partially offset by favorable underwriting.

法定營業收入年減約 5 億美元，主要原因是 2023 年 11 月的再保險交易的影響以及淨投資收益的下降，但有利的承保條件部分抵消了這一影響。

On page 9, this chart shows the final tally in beating our five-year financial commitments under Next Horizon.

第 9 頁的圖表顯示了我們在 Next Horizo​​n 計畫下實現五年財務承諾的最終結果。

Our full year 2024 adjusted ROE of 15.2% was above our original 12% to 14% commitment made in 2019 and above our 13% to 15% guidance for 2024.

我們 2024 年全年調整後的 ROE 為 15.2%，高於我們在 2019 年做出的最初承諾 12% 至 14%，也高於我們對 2024 年 13% 至 15% 的預期。

For the years 2023 through 2024, we generated distributable cash of $20.7 billion, above our $20 billion commitment, and created $1.2 billion of additional operating leverage capacity to accelerate growth above our $1 billion commitment.

從 2023 年到 2024 年，我們產生的可分配現金為 207 億美元，高於我們 200 億美元的承諾，並創造了 12 億美元的額外營運槓桿能力，以加速成長，超過我們 10 億美元的承諾。

Now let's turn to page 11 for further details on our near-term outlook, starting with the overview.

現在讓我們翻到第 11 頁，從概述開始，了解我們近期展望的更多詳細資訊。

Based on the forward currency curve, the US dollar is expected to further strengthen which creates a headwind to adjusted earnings growth of approximately $150 million to $175 million in 2025.

根據遠期貨幣曲線，預計美元將進一步走強，這將對 2025 年調整後獲利成長造成約 1.5 億至 1.75 億美元的阻力。

This impact is embedded in the non-US segment outlook that I will discuss in a moment.

這種影響體現在稍後我將討論的非美國市場前景。

The forward interest rate curve projects long-term interest rates to be stable and the yield curve to steepen, a positive development.

遠期利率曲線預測長期利率將保持穩定，殖利率曲線將趨陡，這是一個積極的發展。

And we used an assumption of 5% annual return for the S&P 500.

我們假設標準普爾 500 指數的年報酬率為 5%。

For our near-term targets, these are consistent with our New Frontier commitments that we announced at Investor Day.

就我們的近期目標而言，這些與我們在投資者日宣布的新前沿承諾一致。

We expect to achieve double-digit adjusted EPS growth.

我們預計調整後每股收益將達到兩位數成長。

We expect adjusted ROE to be in the range of 15% to 17%.

我們預計調整後的 ROE 在 15% 至 17% 之間。

We expect to maintain our two-year average free cash flow ratio of 65% to 75% of adjusted earnings, which supports our five-year commitment to generate $25 billion plus of free cash flow.

我們預計將維持兩年平均自由現金流佔調整後收益的 65% 至 75% 的比率，這支持了我們五年內創造 250 億美元以上自由現金流的承諾。

Also, given our continued focus on expense discipline, we target reducing our expense ratio down 100 basis points to 11.3% by 2029.

此外，鑑於我們持續關注費用控制，我們的目標是到 2029 年將費用率降低 100 個基點至 11.3%。

And therefore, for 2025, we are lowering our direct expense ratio guidance to 12.1%, down from 12.3% in 2024.

因此，我們將 2025 年的直接費用率指引從 2024 年的 12.3% 下調至 12.1%。

Specifically, for 2025, variable investment income is expected to be approximately $1.7 billion pretax.

具體來說，到 2025 年，預計可變投資收益約為稅前 17 億美元。

Our corporate and other adjusted loss is expected to be between $850 million to $950 million after tax.

我們的企業及其他調整後損失預計稅後在 8.5 億美元至 9.5 億美元之間。

And we are maintaining our expected effective tax rate range of 24% to 26%.

我們維持預期有效稅率範圍為 24% 至 26%。

At the bottom of the page, you'll see certain interest rate sensitivities relative to our base case reflecting a relatively modest impact on adjusted earnings over the near term.

在頁面底部，您將看到相對於我們的基本情況的某些利率敏感度，反映出對短期調整後收益的相對適度的影響。

Further sensitivities are in the appendix to these slides.

進一步的敏感度請參閱這些投影片的附錄。

On page 12, the chart reflects our expectation of VII average asset balances to be stable in 2025.

第 12 頁的圖表反映了我們對 VII 平均資產餘額在 2025 年保持穩定的預期。

We are increasing our near-term expected annual returns for private equity to be between 9% to 11%, and we are also increasing our expected return for real estate and other funds to be in a range of 7% to 9% over the near term.

我們正在將私募股權的近期預期年回報率提高到 9% 至 11% 之間，同時我們也將房地產和其他基金的預期回報率提高到近期 7% 至 9% 之間。

In 2025, we expect both PE and real estate and other funds to be toward the lower end of their respective ranges before trending higher in 2026 and 2027.

我們預計，2025 年，PE、房地產及其他基金都將處於各自範圍的低端，然後在 2026 年和 2027 年呈上升趨勢。

Finally, as a reminder, we include prepayment fees on fixed maturities and mortgage loans in VII.

最後，提醒一下，我們在 VII 中包含了固定期限和抵押貸款的預付費用。

So now, I will discuss our near-term outlook for our business segments.

現在，我將討論我們業務部門的近期前景。

Let's start with the US on page 13.

讓我們從第 13 頁的美國開始。

For Group Benefits, we are increasing our adjusted PFO growth target to 4% to 7% annually over the near term.

對於團體福利，我們將在短期內將調整後的 PFO 成長目標提高到每年 4% 至 7%。

We are maintaining our near-term underwriting guidance ranges, Group Life mortality ratio of 84% to 89%, and group nonmedical health interest adjusted benefit ratio of 69% to 74%.

我們維持近期承保指導範圍，團體人壽死亡率為 84% 至 89%，團體非醫療健康利益調整福利比率為 69% 至 74%。

Please keep in mind, these are annual ratios and both typically skew to the higher end of the ranges in the first quarter given the seasonality of the business.

請記住，這些都是年度比率，考慮到業務的季節性，兩者通常在第一季都偏向範圍的高端。

However, for Group Life, if the positive trend we have seen in the last couple of quarters persist into the first half of the year, we expect the full year ratio to be in the bottom half of the guidance range in 2025.

然而，對於團體人壽而言，如果我們在過去幾個季度看到的正面趨勢持續到上半年，我們預計 2025 年全年比率將處於指導範圍的下半部分。

Lastly, we expect Group Benefits adjusted earnings to benefit from factors outside of underwriting, largely from continued change in our product mix, greater operating efficiencies, and higher investment income.

最後，我們預期團體福利調整後收益將受惠於承保以外的因素，主要得益於我們產品組合的持續變化、更高的營運效率和更高的投資收益。

This will add an incremental 5% to 10% to adjusted earnings in 2025.

這將使 2025 年的調整後收益增加 5% 至 10%。

For RIS, we've talked about the business being comprised primarily of spread and fee earnings.

對於 RIS，我們討論過業務主要由利差和費用收入組成。

To that end, we provide a long-term balanced growth range for total liabilities, which can be used to project our future spread and fee balances.

為此，我們提供了總負債的長期平衡成長範圍，可用於預測我們未來的利差和費用餘額。

And in light of the opportunity we see under New Frontier, we are now increasing our total liability annual growth guidance to 3% to 5%.

鑑於我們在 New Frontier 下看到的機遇，我們目前將總負債年增長預期上調至 3% 至 5%。

The total spread guidance range for the upcoming year can be applied to our projected general account balances to get a good proxy for our pretax spread income before expenses.

可以將下一年度的總利差指導範圍應用於我們預計的一般帳戶餘額，以獲得費用前稅前利差收入的良好代表。

We expect 2025 total general account investment spread to be 110 to 135 basis points, assuming the forward curve holds and based on our VII estimate for 2025.

假設遠期曲線保持不變，且基於我們對 2025 年的 VII 估計，我們預計 2025 年一般帳戶總投資利差將達到 110 至 135 個基點。

We anticipate our core spread to stabilize from 2025 forward now that all remaining interest rate caps have matured.

目前所有剩餘的利率上限均已到期，我們預期核心利差將從 2025 年開始趨於穩定。

Beyond spread earnings, total fee and underwriting income, net of expenses, adds an incremental 5% to RIS adjusted earnings.

除了利差收益之外，扣除費用後的總費用和承保收入將為 RIS 調整後收益增加 5%。

For MetLife Holdings, we are expecting adjusted PFOs to decline approximately 4% to 6% in 2025, and we are lowering the adjusted earnings guidance range to $650 million to $800 million in 2025.

對於大都會人壽控股，我們預計調整後的 PFO 將到 2025 年下降約 4% 至 6%，並且我們將 2025 年調整後的盈利預期範圍下調至 6.5 億美元至 8 億美元。

The business runoff accelerated in 2024 to roughly 9% of adjusted earnings as life and variable annuity lapses were higher during the year.

由於年內人壽和變額年金的失效率較高，2024 年業務流失加速至調整後收益的約 9%。

Now let's look at the near-term guidance for our segments outside the US on page 14.

現在讓我們來看看第 14 頁針對美國以外地區分部的近期指引。

For Asia, we expect sales to grow mid- to high single digits on a constant currency basis over the near term.

對於亞洲，我們預計短期內銷售額將以固定匯率計算實現中高個位數成長。

In addition, we expect general account AUM on a constant currency basis to maintain mid-single-digit growth.

此外，我們預計以固定匯率計算的一般帳戶 AUM 將維持中位數個位數成長。

Asia adjusted earnings in 2025 are expected to grow mid-single digits on a constant currency basis and low single digits on a reported basis given the yen weakness assumed in the forward curve.

鑑於遠期曲線中假設的日圓疲軟，預計 2025 年亞洲調整後收益將以固定匯率計算成長中個位數，以報告基礎計算成長低個位數。

For 2026 and 2027, adjusted earnings are expected to grow mid-single digits on both a reported and constant currency basis.

預計 2026 年和 2027 年調整後收益將按報告和固定匯率計算實現中個位數成長。

For Latin America, we expect both adjusted PFOs and adjusted earnings in 2025 to grow high single digits on a constant currency basis and flat on a reported basis given the forward currency rates, which assumes Mexican and Chilean pesos weakened in 2025.

對於拉丁美洲，我們預計 2025 年調整後的 PFO 和調整後的收益都將在固定匯率基礎上實現高個位數增長，在報告基礎上則將持平，因為遠期匯率假設墨西哥和智利比索在 2025 年走弱。

For 2026 and 2027, we expect adjusted PFOs and adjusted earnings to grow high single digits on both a reported and constant currency basis.

對於 2026 年和 2027 年，我們預計調整後的 PFO 和調整後的收益在報告和固定匯率基礎上都將實現高個位數成長。

Finally for EMEA, we are expecting adjusted PFOs to grow mid- to high single digits on a reported basis.

最後，對於 EMEA 地區，我們預計調整後的 PFO 將以報告為基礎實現中高個位數成長。

For adjusted earnings, we expect EMEA's new quarterly run rate to be $70 million to $75 million in 2025 and then grow mid-single digits in 2026, 2027.

對於調整後的收益，我們預計 EMEA 地區新的季度運行率在 2025 年將達到 7,000 萬至 7,500 萬美元，然後在 2026 年、2027 年實現中等個位數成長。

Let me conclude by saying that MetLife delivered a solid quarter to close out another strong year.

最後，我想說，大都會人壽本季業績表現穩健，為又一強勁的年度畫下句點。

Our fourth quarter and full year results reflected the strong underlying fundamentals across our portfolio of businesses.

我們的第四季和全年業績反映了我們業務組合強勁的基本面。

We continue to move forward from a position of strength with a strong balance sheet, recurring free cash flow generation, and a diversified set of market-leading businesses.

我們憑藉強勁的資產負債表、經常性的自由現金流產生以及一系列多元化的市場領先業務，繼續保持強勢地位向前邁進。

As we complete the final leg of our Next Horizon journey, we are pleased to have exceeded all the commitments that we made.

當我們完成「Next Horizo​​n」之旅的最後一段時，我們很高興已經超額完成了我們所做的所有承諾。

Now as we forge our way into the New Frontier, our strategic priorities position us well to deliver on our unique value proposition of accelerating responsible growth and generating attractive returns with lower risk.

現在，隨著我們開拓新領域，我們的策略重點使我們能夠實現獨特的價值主張，即加速負責任的成長並以較低的風險產生可觀的回報。

And with that, I'll turn the call back to the operator for your questions.

說完這些，我將把電話轉回給接線員以回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Ryan Krueger, KBW.

（操作員指示）Ryan Krueger，KBW。

My first question was for Ramy on group.

我的第一個問題是針對小組的 Ramy 的。

Can you give some additional details and color on 1/1 renewals, what you saw in terms of competition, pricing, and any other factors you'd highlight?

您能否提供一些有關 1/1 續約的更多細節和信息，以及您在競爭、定價和其他您​​想強調的因素方面看到的情況？

Sure, Ryan.

當然，瑞安。

So I would say we're off to a really good start in 1/1.

因此我想說我們在 1/1 方面取得了一個很好的開始。

We've had renewals and persistency within our expectations.

我們的更新和堅持都符合我們的預期。

We're particularly pleased with the renewal actions on the dental business, which we've talked about before in terms of getting our targeted rate actions as well as maintaining a very strong persistency.

我們對牙科業務的更新行動感到特別高興，我們之前已經討論過有關獲得目標利率行動以及保持非常強的持久性的舉措。

So off to a really strong start in 1/1.

因此，1/1 開局非常強勁。

And that's part of the reason why we really also feel good about taking our PFO guidance range from 4% to 7%, which is a 1 point increase from where we were last year.

這也是我們對將 PFO 指導範圍從 4% 提高到 7% 感到非常滿意的原因之一，這比去年的水平增加了 1 個百分點。

And then a question on the -- I guess, somewhat broader question on the PRT market.

然後是一個關於——我想，關於 PRT 市場的一個更廣泛的問題。

There were a number of lawsuits targeted against one specific provider and plan sponsors that shows them it's gotten expanded to a couple more.

有數起訴訟針對的是特定的提供者和計劃發起人，這表明訴訟範圍已擴大到其他幾個。

MET has not been involved in this at this point.

目前 MET 尚未參與此事。

But yes, just curious, are you starting to see any level of leaning in that market as plan sponsors might be more concerned about this lawsuit activity?

但是的，只是好奇，您是否開始看到該市場出現任何程度的傾向，因為計劃發起人可能會更加關注這場訴訟活動？

Or is it not really having much of an impact for you guys at this point?

或者說目前它對你們來說並沒有太大的影響？

Hey, Ryan.

嘿，瑞安。

It's Ramy here again.

拉米又來了。

Look, it is very hard to forecast like what and if any impact this is going to have on the market.

看起來，很難預測這會對市場產生什麼影響以及是否會造成影響。

But may be helpful is just to share with you what we're seeing as of now, right?

但與您分享我們目前所看到的情況可能會有所幫助，對嗎？

So one, this is a very well-established market.

首先，這是一個非常成熟的市場。

It does operate within the rules and regulations which govern plan sponsors' responsibilities and a very robust solvency regulation which govern insurance companies.

它確實在管理計劃發起人責任的規則和條例以及管理保險公司的非常嚴格的償付能力條例的範圍內運作。

And within that context, the PRT products offer really valuable solution to plan sponsors and retirees.

在這種背景下，PRT 產品為計劃發起人和退休人員提供了真正有價值的解決方案。

So in the here and now, we finished last year with a $6.4 billion of inflows for PRTs and healthy ROEs.

所以就目前情況來看，去年我們的 PRT 流入量達到 64 億美元，且 ROE 也表現健康。

And we're off to a really good start in '25.

我們在25年已經有了一個非常好的開始。

We had a $640 million plan that we wrote in the first part of '25.

我們在25年上半年制定了一個6.4億美元的計畫。

And the factors that we talked about that will continue to drive this market in terms of the funded status, the financial and the industrial logic, will persist.

我們談到的將繼續推動這個市場的因素，包括資金狀況、金融和產業邏輯，都將持續存在。

And this is also reflective of the pipeline.

這也反映了管道的情況。

So we still see a pipeline.

因此我們仍然看到一條管道。

We still see interest here, and we haven't really seen any material impact on the market.

我們仍然看到人們對此感興趣，但我們還沒有真正看到對市場產生任何實質的影響。

And just to step back outside of PRT and think about our RIS liability origination in general, inclusive of all the pieces we talked about on our Investor Day as well as the adjacencies that we talked about, we still here feel really good that we will deliver the 3% to 5% balance growth over the near term, which is also a point up from where we were last year.

撇開 PRT 不談，整體思考一下我們的 RIS 負債起源，包括我們在投資者日談到的所有內容以及我們所談到的鄰接關係，我們仍然感到非常高興，我們將在短期內實現 3% 到 5% 的餘額增長，這也比去年有所提高。

So in aggregate, we still feel good about that range sitting here today.

因此，總體而言，我們對於今天的這個範圍仍然感到滿意。

Tom Gallagher, Evercore.

湯姆·加拉格爾，Evercore。

First question for Ramy, as well.

第一個問題也是針對拉米 (Ramy) 的。

Some peers have called out elevated voluntary benefit loss ratios this quarter.

一些同業指出，本季自願福利損失率上升。

Did you also see that?

你也看到了嗎？

And when I consider that impact plus the benefits you expect to get from dental repricing, would you say non-medical health loss ratio is going to be better or worse in '25 versus '24?

當我考慮這種影響以及您期望從牙科重新定價中獲得的收益時，您是否認為 25 年與 24 年相比，非醫療保健的損失率會更好還是更糟？

Good morning, Tom.

早上好，湯姆。

I would say for Accident and Health, we aren't seeing any material deviations outside of what you would call normal range of expectations.

我想說，對於意外和健康險而言，我們沒有看到任何超出正常預期範圍的重大偏差。

And we look at this on a product-by-product basis.

我們會根據每個產品來研究這個問題。

Remember, it's not one single product.

請記住，它不是單一產品。

So I wouldn't say we've seen any material deviations here.

所以我不會說我們在這裡看到任何重大偏差。

And we continue to see very much growth here with really solid margins.

我們繼續看到這裡的大幅成長和穩定穩健的利潤率。

If you think about next year versus this year, we did finish '24 above -- less than 1 point above the midpoint of our range.

如果將明年與今年進行比較，我們的成績確實高出了 24 分，比範圍的中點高出不到 1 個百分點。

We haven't changed the range for next year.

我們沒有改變明年的範圍。

So a good starting point for '25 is to go back to the midpoint of that range on the nonmedical health ratio, which does factor in some of the improvements around dental that you mentioned as well.

因此，25 年的一個好起點是回到非醫療健康比例範圍的中點，這也確實考慮到了您提到的一些牙科方面的改善。

So like 1 point better is a reasonable base case?

那麼 1 點更好是合理的基本情況嗎？

Midpoint of the range is where we point to, so I think that's where I would start.

我們所指向的正是範圍的中點，因此我認為這就是我開始的地方。

Yeah.

是的。

Good.

好的。

And just for a follow-up, John, just on raising alternative return assumptions for '25.

只是為了後續問題，約翰，只是提出 25 年的替代報酬假設。

What's the thought process there?

那裡的思考過程是怎麼樣的？

Is it just general market performance?

這僅僅是一般的市場表現嗎？

Do you have some line of visibility into Q1?

您對第一季的情況有什麼了解嗎？

Because obviously, you haven't met any of the lower quarterly expectations for '24.

因為很明顯，你沒有達到 24 年任何較低的季度預期。

So curious why raise it now.

很好奇為什麼現在提出這個問題。

Good morning, Tom.

早上好，湯姆。

Yeah, so there's two components there.

是的，這裡有兩個組成部分。

In VII, we have our private equity LP investments, and then we have some real estate and other funds.

在VII中，我們有私募股權LP投資，然後我們有一些房地產和其他基金。

So I think on the -- and the private equity obviously is a much bigger proportion, as you saw on the slide in terms of average assets.

因此我認為——私募股權顯然佔據了更大的比例，就像你在投影片上看到的平均資產比例一樣。

So we have a few things going on.

因此，我們有一些事情正在進行中。

Obviously, there's been a tailwind with public equity markets.

顯然，公開股票市場已經出現了順風。

That has been the case.

事實確實如此。

It hasn't really shown itself in the private market yet, but we think that that is still beneficial.

它還沒有真正在私人市場上展現出來，但我們認為這仍然是有益的。

Our sense is that the underlying operating companies are benefiting from that.

我們的感覺是，基礎營運公司正在從中受益。

You're starting to sense an increase in exit activity beginning.

您開始感覺到退出活動開始增加。

So the backlog is starting to remove or get better.

因此，積壓問題開始消除或改善。

I think there's probably a more accommodating regulatory and business-friendly environment ahead of us.

我認為我們未來可能會面臨更寬鬆的監管和更有利於商業的環境。

So I think there's a number of positive backdrops that lead you to our view for private equity.

因此，我認為有許多積極的背景可以引導您形成我們對私募股權的看法。

The private equity returns for the year, they actually weren't far off.

今年的私募股權投資報酬率其實不算太高。

If not, they might have been actually on target relative to the guidance we gave last year.

如果不是，他們可能實際上已經達到了我們去年給出的指導目標。

So we're really just moving it up 1 point.

所以我們實際上只是將其提高 1 個百分點。

So that takes the big, I'll say, the majority of the VII balance.

所以我可以說，這佔據了 VII 餘額的大部分。

Then you're left with real estate and other.

接下來你就只剩下房地產和其他了。

And that asset class probably underperformed our expectation last year.

去年該資產類別的表現可能低於我們的預期。

But we're starting to see and you're hearing there's some bit of optimism beginning in the real estate market.

但我們開始看到並且你們也聽到房地產市場開始出現一些樂觀情緒。

It's showing signs of stabilizing.

它正顯示出穩定的跡象。

And so our view is that we're going to start to see recovery in values in 2025.

因此，我們的觀點是，我們將在 2025 年開始看到價值復甦。

So those -- the combined factors there give us a view that next year will be better than this year.

所以這些綜合因素使我們認為明年的情況會比今年更好。

We still think that there will be a gradual improvement throughout the year.

我們仍認為全年情況將會逐步改善。

So we don't think you get in the first quarter to call it the run rate or divide 1.7 by 4.

因此，我們認為在第一季你無法將其稱為運行率或將 1.7 除以 4。

We think it's still lower, but we think we're above where we were here in the fourth quarter.

我們認為它仍然較低，但我們認為我們高於第四季度的水平。

So hopefully, that gives you a sense of our thinking.

希望這能讓您了解我們的想法。

Suneet Kamath, Jefferies.

蘇尼特·卡馬斯（Suneet Kamath），傑富瑞（Jefferies）。

I wanted to go to the RIS spread guidance.

我想要了解 RIS 利差指導。

If I look at the 110 to 135, it looks like that might be 5 basis points below what you originally guided to for 2024.

如果我看一下 110 到 135，看起來這可能比您最初指導的 2024 年低 5 個基點。

And -- but you've taken your VII up, and I thought you said core spreads were supposed to be stable.

而且 — — 但您已將 VII 提高了，我以為您說核心利差應該是穩定的。

So I'm just trying to understand what would explain that delta, if I'm remembering correctly.

所以我只是想知道如何解釋這個差異，如果我沒記錯的話。

Good morning, Suneet.

早上好，Suneet。

It's John.

是約翰。

So let me try to -- let me give you my maybe way of thinking about it, and I'll come back to your specific question of the relative to the last year's guidance.

所以，讓我嘗試——讓我給你我對此的可能思考方式，然後我會回到你關於去年指導的具體問題。

So we ended this fourth quarter at 112, which was up 6 basis points sequentially.

因此，我們第四季的收盤價為 112，比上一季上漲了 6 個基點。

We are flat on the core spread at 108.

核心利差持平於 108。

And then as we look ahead, our view is that we expect in 2025 total spread to be, as we said, 110 to 135.

展望未來，我們預期 2025 年的總利差將達到我們所謂的 110 到 135。

If you take the midpoint of that, it's actually above the 2024 actual spread that we ended with, right?

如果取其中間值，它實際上高於我們最終得出的 2024 年實際利差，對嗎？

So what's doing that?

那麼這是怎麼回事呢？

So you see a bit of recovery in VII being forecasted, coupled with stabilizing core spreads in '25.

因此，您會看到預計 VII 會出現一定程度的復甦，同時核心利差將在 25 年穩定下來。

So all of the interest rate caps have rolled off.

因此，所有的利率上限都已取消。

That was one of the things that started to depress core spreads during the course of 2024.

這是2024年開始壓低核心利差的因素之一。

Those hedges performed as intended, which was to protect us from a sharp rise of interest rates and an inverted curve.

這些對沖發揮了預期的作用，保護我們免受利率急劇上升和曲線倒掛的影響。

And so now, we think of core spreads stabilizing into '25 and quite honestly, for the near term.

因此現在，我們認為核心利差將穩定到25年，坦白說，在短期內也是如此。

And we typically are pretty hesitant about talking about more than one year.

我們通常不太願意談論一年以上的時間。

But I think we're starting to see, I think -- steeping in the curve will be positive eventually.

但我認為我們開始看到，我認為——曲線的傾斜最終將是積極的。

It could have a little pressure on us in the near term as we reposition some of the portfolio, but it also gives us the ability to implement other tools that we have.

由於我們重新定位部分投資組合，這可能會在短期內給我們帶來一些壓力，但它也使我們有能力實施我們擁有的其他工具。

So maybe there's a few points of 1- or 2-point pressure in '25 relative to the 108, but we think quickly reverts back to that.

因此，相對於 108，'25 可能會有幾個 1 或 2 點的壓力，但我們認為很快就會恢復到那個狀態。

So if you think of like the 106 to 108 over the near term is a pretty good sense of what our core spread.

因此，如果您想到短期內的 106 到 108，您就能很好地了解我們的核心利差。

You're going to see a lot more stability in the spread as we go forward.

隨著我們不斷前進，你會看到價差變得更加穩定。

And especially as we put on new business, they tend to be accretive now to spread as well.

特別是當我們開展新業務時，它們往往也會加速擴張。

So again, I think it's a very positive backdrop.

因此，我再次認為這是一個非常積極的背景。

But that maybe helps try to reconcile -- I think relative to last year, I think the biggest probably delta is just the roll-off of the interest rate caps relative to this year.

但這可能有助於嘗試調和——我認為相對於去年，最大的可能差異只是相對於今年的利率上限的取消。

Okay.

好的。

That makes sense.

這很有道理。

And then on Chariot, can you just talk about what blocks of business you'd be interested in using that vehicle for?

然後關於 Chariot，您能談談您有興趣將該車輛用於哪些業務領域嗎？

Is it TRT?

是 TRT 嗎？

Is it retail annuities?

是零售年金嗎？

Can you use it domestically and internationally?

國內和國外都可以用嗎？

Just some color about the scope of what you're thinking there would be helpful.

只要稍微闡明一下您認為的範圍就很有幫助。

Sure.

當然。

Good morning, Suneet.

早上好，Suneet。

It's Michel.

是米歇爾。

So just taking a step back, let me just say we're very pleased with the progress we're making here and really excited about the growth opportunities that Chariot Re will allow us to capture.

所以退一步來說，我只想說，我們對我們在這裡的進展感到非常滿意，並對 Chariot Re 將為我們帶來成長機會感到非常興奮。

And keep in mind, we've been at work on this with our partner, General Atlantic, for less than a year.

請記住，我們與合作夥伴泛大西洋資本集團 (General Atlantic) 合作開展這項工作還不到一年。

So we're continuing to move at pace to fully capitalize and operationalize the company.

因此，我們將繼續快速行動，充分利用公司資本並實現公司營運。

And again, the intention here is to create a long-term strategic partnership with Chariot Re.

再次強調，我們的目的是與 Chariot Re 建立長期策略合作夥伴關係。

As we mentioned at Investor Day, really, this is intended to enhance our capital flexibility and to allow us to generate additional liability growth beyond our balance sheet capacity, if need be.

正如我們在投資者日所提到的，這實際上是為了增強我們的資本靈活性，並允許我們在必要時產生超出資產負債表能力的額外負債成長。

So -- and the other aspect to this is that it will allow us to convert this additional growth into high-value earnings for MIM as well.

所以 — — 另一方面是，它將使我們能夠將這種額外的成長轉化為 MIM 的高價值收益。

I think we said also that the intention here is that for the first few years, the liabilities will be sourced through MetLife.

我想我們也說過，這裡的意圖是，在最初幾年，負債將透過大都會人壽來承擔。

And -- but the possibility does exist that down the road, Chariot Re may reinsure liabilities from third parties as well.

並且 —— 但也存在這種可能性，即未來 Chariot Re 也可能為第三方的責任提供再保險。

And the liabilities sourced through MetLife include PRT and other liabilities sourced by RIS as well as potentially Japan liabilities.

透過大都會人壽獲得的負債包括 PRT 和 RIS 獲得的其他負債以及潛在的日本負債。

So hopefully, this gives you a bit of color.

希望這能帶給你一些啟發。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特 (Alex Scott)。

First one I had for you is actually on MetLife Investment Management.

我首先要問的其實是有關大都會人壽投資管理的。

I'm sure you saw there was a news article suggesting that maybe Brighthouse Financial would potentially look to sell itself.

我確信您已經看到一篇新聞文章，其中暗示 Brighthouse Financial 可能考慮出售自己。

And I'm not asking you to opine on that.

我並不是要求你對此發表意見。

But what I'm more interested in is if you could frame for us what impact you could potentially have in MetLife Investment Management if an asset manager, one of these private equity-backed companies, engaged there and were interested in managing general account.

但我更感興趣的是，如果您可以向我們描述一下，如果一家資產管理公司（這些私募股權支持的公司之一）參與大都會投資管理並有興趣管理一般帳戶，您可能會對大都會投資管理產生什麼影響。

How would that affect potentially your positioning?

這會對你的定位產生什麼潛在影響？

Like how much money do you make up their general account management, et cetera?

例如你為他們的一般帳戶管理賺了多少錢等等？

It's John.

是約翰。

I think first thing is we don't comment on specific client P&Ls.

我認為首先我們不對特定客戶的損益表發表評論。

So I probably won't get that out of me today.

所以我今天可能不會說這件事了。

But look, they're an excellent customer and client of ours.

但你看，他們是我們優秀的顧客和客戶。

We take pride in the fact that we have them as a customer.

我們為擁有他們這樣的客戶而感到自豪。

And particularly given our historical relationship and the historical personal relationships as we all have, I think it's a prized client for us, and we really value it.

特別是考慮到我們的歷史關係以及我們之間的歷史個人關係，我認為他是我們珍貴的客戶，我們非常重視他。

We've read the papers as well and heard that as well.

我們也讀過報紙並聽說過這件事。

And so look, we've had other situations over time occur.

所以你看，隨著時間的推移，我們還遇到過其他情況。

We think we offer a unique value proposition and provide some unique capabilities.

我們認為我們提供了獨特的價值主張並提供了一些獨特的能力。

That's what we've been building here in MetLife Investment Management.

這就是我們在大都會人壽投資管理公司一直致力於建立的目標。

We continue to do that.

我們將繼續這樣做。

We're looking to grow our capabilities, and you saw that most recently in some of the announcements that we made.

我們正在尋求提升我們的能力，您在最近我們發布的一些公告中看到了這一點。

So we think we have a unique offering.

因此我們認為我們擁有獨特的產品。

Having said that, we recognize that things can change over time.

話雖如此，我們認識到事情會隨著時間而改變。

And we think we're a well-diversified client base.

我們認為我們的客戶群非常多元化。

And we'll have to manage things as they come, but we are pretty excited about the things that we have to offer.

我們必須隨機應變，但我們對所能提供的東西感到非常興奮。

Got it.

知道了。

I totally understand.

我完全理解。

Second one maybe on capital deployment, Holdco cash in a really strong spot.

第二個可能是在資本部署方面，Holdco 的現金狀況非常強勁。

I would be interested, too, though, if you could comment at all about how much capital is behind -- statutory capital behind the Holdings business at this point and how to think about, if you did find opportunities there, how that could add to the capital flexibility you have?

不過，如果您可以評論一下目前控股業務背後的法定資本有多少，以及如何思考，如果您確實在那裡找到了機會，這將如何增加您的資本靈活性，我也會感興趣？

And then ultimately, are there areas that you'll look to add to in terms of inorganic activity?

最後，在無機活動方面您是否希望增加一些領域？

It's John.

是約翰。

It's probably a little bit of too broad of a question for us to answer.

這個問題可能有點太廣泛了，我們無法回答。

I think as we've talked about, we are very effective at managing MetLife Holdings.

我認為，正如我們所討論的，我們在管理大都會人壽控股方面非常有效。

At the same time, we take a very -- we have a third-party view and talk to third parties to see if there's an opportunity for something that makes sense that's accretive to our firm from a risk-adjusted basis.

同時，我們採取非常——我們有第三方的觀點，並與第三方交談，看看是否有機會做一些有意義的事情，從風險調整的基礎上為我們的公司帶來增值。

There's a lot of different variables and factors that go into the outcomes or the items that drive value creation.

許多不同的變數和因素都會影響結果或推動價值創造的項目。

So it's probably a little hard to give that broad answer.

因此，可能很難給出這個廣泛的答案。

Also, you have to -- there's diversification benefits we have to consider as well and things like that.

此外，我們還必須考慮多樣化效益之類的因素。

So at the end of the day, it's performing very well for us.

所以總的來說，它對我們來說表現得非常好。

When we think there's an opportunity, you've seen us take action.

當我們認為有機會時，您會看到我們採取行動。

If not, there's no burning platform for us, and we're happy to manage this effectively ourselves.

如果沒有的話，我們就沒有燃燒的平台，我們很樂意自己有效地管理這一點。

We think we have the unique capabilities to do that.

我們認為我們有獨特的能力來做到這一點。

Wes Carmichael, Autonomous Research.

韋斯·卡邁克爾，自主研究。

And maybe just following up on the last question and maybe a little bit less broad, but particularly on long-term care.

也許只是繼續回答最後一個問題，也許討論得不那麼廣泛，但主要是關於長期照護。

And haven't gotten a lot of attention lately, but I think last quarter, you made some comments on the risk transfer market that seems somewhat constructive.

最近沒有引起太多關注，但我認為上個季度，您對風險轉移市場發表的一些評論似乎相當有建設性。

And I was just curious if there's any further developments there in terms of pricing or bid ask.

我只是好奇在定價或買賣方面是否還有進一步的發展。

And just maybe if I think about that block in particular, how does long-term care flow into the free cash flow conversion ratio for the company?

如果我特別考慮這個區塊，長期照護如何影響公司的自由現金流轉換率？

Because I know a lot of the runoff in Holdings has pretty high cash flow profile.

因為我知道控股公司裡的許多流失資金都有相當高的現金流狀況。

It's Ramy here.

我是拉米。

Look, like we talked about last quarter, we are seeing more activity in that risk transfer market.

看，就像我們上個季度談到的那樣，我們看到風險轉移市場變得更加活躍。

And when deals get announced, it means you're getting more convergence between cedents and reinsurers, and that's encouraging.

當交易宣佈時，這意味著分保人和再保險公司之間的融合更加緊密，這是令人鼓舞的。

Having said that, these are always complex transactions to execute.

話雖如此，這些交易的執行始終都很複雜。

They take time.

他們需要時間。

Our objective for any risk transfer deal is always the same.

我們對任何風險轉移交易的目標始終是相同的。

We want to maximize shareholder value and continue to serve our customers.

我們希望實現股東價值最大化並繼續為客戶服務。

And from the former, price matters for these deals and so does structure.

從前者來看，價格對這些交易很重要，結構也很重要。

But in the interim specific to our book, I would say it's well capitalized, well reserved.

但就我們的書而言，我想說的是，它的資本充足，保留得很好。

Recall, we are under the New York DFS reserving standards.

回想一下，我們遵守紐約 DFS 保留標準。

We're held to higher bar here.

我們在這裡要遵守更高的標準。

The book is well managed.

這本書管理得很好。

It's performing in line with our expectations.

它的表現符合我們的預期。

And we continue to have a really successful rate action program that's allowing us to obtain the necessary premium increases and continuing to provide coverage.

我們繼續擁有一個真正成功的利率行動計劃，這使我們能夠獲得必要的保費成長並繼續提供保障。

So that's a bit of an update in terms of where we stand, and I'll let John talk about the free cash flow piece of it.

就我們的現狀而言，這算是一點更新，我會讓約翰談談其中的自由現金流部分。

Yeah, sure.

是的，當然。

It is a block of business that is growing its liabilities over time still.

這是一個業務板塊，其負債隨著時間的推移而不斷增加。

So it has not reached peak.

所以還沒達到頂峰。

So at the end of the day, it's actually not providing much in the way of cash flow these days.

所以說到底，它現在實際上並沒有提供太多的現金流。

If anything, it continues to strain just given you have to grow -- you're continuing to grow liabilities to the peak.

如果有的話，它會繼續緊張，因為你必須要成長——你的負債會繼續增長到頂峰。

So hopefully, that helps.

希望這能有所幫助。

And my second question was just on the positive trends in Group Life that you mentioned that may persist through 2025.

我的第二個問題是關於您所提到的團體生活中的正面趨勢可能會持續到 2025 年。

Can you provide a little bit more color on what you're seeing recently?

能否詳細介紹一下您最近看到的情況？

And could this be something that persists a little bit longer term?

這種現象會不會持續較長時間？

It's Ramy here.

我是拉米。

Look, if you look at the public data and the recent trends in the CDC population data, in particular, for the working age population, you see favorability in that data year over year.

你看，如果你看看公開數據和疾病預防控制中心人口數據的最新趨勢，特別是勞動年齡人口的數據，你會發現這些數據逐年呈上升趨勢。

And given our size and diversification, that favorability in the population data is working its way into our ratios here.

考慮到我們的規模和多樣化，人口數據的有利性正在影響我們的比率。

And that's probably the major driver as to why we came below the lower end of our range for 2024.

這可能是導致我們 2024 年目標低於預期範圍下限的主要原因。

We're still watching it.

我們仍在關注。

I think I would say if the positive trends that we have seen in terms of population mortality continue and continue to, say, the first half of '25, we would expect that for the full year, we would be in the bottom half of our guidance range on the mortality ratio, as John alluded to.

我想說的是，如果我們在人口死亡率方面看到的積極趨勢持續下去，比如說，持續到 25 年上半年，我們預計全年死亡率將處於我們指導範圍的下半部分，正如約翰所提到的。

So very much population data driven and that favorability working into our numbers.

因此，人口數據是主要驅動因素，而好感度則體現在我們的數字中。

Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar。

I just had a couple of questions.

我只是有幾個問題。

The first one is on commercial real estate.

第一個是關於商業房地產。

And if you look at your portfolio, your metrics are fairly stable, although they've been getting slightly worse over the last few quarters, both on the coverage ratio and loan-to-value, but not materially.

如果你看看你的投資組合，你會發現你的指標相當穩定，儘管在過去幾個季度裡，無論是覆蓋率還是貸款價值比，它們都略有惡化，但並不嚴重。

So how should we think about losses coming in from that over the course of this year?

那麼，我們該如何看待今年由此造成的損失呢？

And has the market stabilized?

市場已經穩定了嗎？

Or do you think there's more pain to go through as you go through this year?

或者您認為今年您還會經歷更多的痛苦嗎？

And then secondly, on pension reform in Latin America, there's been a lot of concern about the Chilean market, and it comes and goes.

其次，關於拉丁美洲的退休金改革，人們對智利市場非常擔憂，而且這種擔憂時有發生，時有變化。

But I think recently, there have been even some reports about potential nationalization out of some of the AFP businesses.

但我認為最近甚至有報告說 AFP 的一些企業可能會被國有化。

So just wondering if you have any insights on what is going on there.

我只是想知道您是否對那裡發生的事情有任何見解。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Jimmy.

謝謝，吉米。

It's John.

是約翰。

On the commercial mortgage front and the market, as you -- we all know there's been some recent pressure over the last few years.

在商業抵押貸款方面和市場方面，正如您所知——過去幾年來一直存在一些壓力。

And -- but think there's the backdrop, it's starting to build some optimism for the going forward.

而且 — — 但想想看，有這樣的背景，它開始為未來的發展建立一些樂觀情緒。

Obviously, there's been strong economic growth that continues to remain healthy.

顯然，經濟成長強勁，並且持續保持健康。

And you start to see some -- even some real estate fundamentals beginning even in office.

你會開始看到一些東西——甚至一些房地產基本面甚至在任職期間就開始顯現。

It's showing signs of bottoming.

它已顯示出觸底的跡象。

It's still probably not quite there yet, but it's showing signs office vacancies likely peaked most in 2024.

目前可能還沒有完全達到這一水平，但有跡象表明辦公室空置率可能在 2024 年達到頂峰。

You see the remote work starting to reverse.

您會看到遠端工作開始發生逆轉。

You see lease signings have been increasing.

您會發現，租賃簽約量一直在增加。

And so all in all -- and then couple that with like a low construction pipeline.

總而言之 — — 然後將其與低建設管道結合。

All of that starts to give itself the ability to start to make a shift in terms of where things are.

所有這些都開始賦予它自己能力，使事物的現狀改變。

I think even vacancy rates across other properties are at historical averages, if not below.

我認為其他房產的空置率也處於歷史平均水平，甚至更低。

And then last thing I'd highlight is you're beginning to see signs of transaction volumes pickup.

我最後要強調的是，您開始看到交易量回升的跡象。

Even us, I think we had a $80 million level of -- or $90 million of gains this quarter on sales.

即使是我們，我認為本季的銷售收益也達到了 8,000 萬美元至 9,000 萬美元。

So you're starting to see transactions.

因此您開始看到交易。

So look, as we look forward, we think we've -- we're approaching the peak of the cycle or trough, whichever way you want to put it.

所以，展望未來，我們認為我們已經——正在接近週期的頂峰或低谷，無論你想怎麼說。

And so we think from an LTV perspective, we probably have hit our point.

因此我們認為從 LTV 的角度來看，我們可能已經達到了目的。

Maybe there's a little more change, but I think we've kind of hit it in terms of LTVs.

也許還會有更多變化，但我認為我們在 LTV 方面已經達到了目標。

And looking forward, in terms of losses, we've pretty -- I would say we've effectively reserved, for the most part, if not all, for losses.

展望未來，就損失而言，我想說我們已經有效地為損失預留了大部分（如果不是全部的話）資金。

So right now, it's just getting to the end of letting the dust settle.

所以現在，事情只是到了塵埃落定的階段。

Probably the best way to think about what's left is we probably -- we might have a point or two of RBC.

可能思考剩下什麼的最好方式是，我們可能 - 我們可能有 1 點或 2 點 RBC。

That's maybe a better way to size what this means as opposed to maybe charge-offs or losses because we probably have been fully reserved now and -- all else equal, obviously.

這也許是衡量其含義的更好方法，而不是沖銷或損失，因為我們現在可能已經完全保留了，而且 — — 在其他所有條件相同的情況下，顯然如此。

And so once all the dust settles, maybe there's another point or two on average in terms of the impact of the cycle.

因此，一旦一切塵埃落定，就週期的影響而言，平均可能會再增加一兩點。

That's how I'd maybe put it.

我可能就是這麼表述的。

Hi, Jimmy.

你好，吉米。

Regarding the Chile pension reform -- so yeah, you're right.

關於智利退休金改革——是的，你是對的。

After almost a decade of debate, pension reform was approved last week by the Chilean Congress.

經過近十年的辯論，退休金改革於上週獲得智利國會批准。

So now with this recent development, basically, we have more clarity on what's next.

所以現在有了最近的發展，基本上，我們對下一步該怎麼做有了更清楚的認識。

And in a nutshell, the key takeaways from this reform are threefold.

概括來說，這次改革的關鍵要點有三點。

One, the private pension system continues in its current structure with a few adjustments.

一是私人退休金制度延續現有架構，並進行一些調整。

The second is that employer contributions will be gradually increased over time.

第二，雇主繳費將隨著時間的推移逐漸增加。

And the third is in terms of implementation, the reform will be gradual and take several years.

第三，在實施方面，改革將是漸進的，需要幾年的時間。

So some elements of the law will require us to adapt our operations over time.

因此，法律的某些要素將要求我們隨著時間的推移調整我們的營運。

And we don't foresee any material impact to our business that we wouldn't be able to mitigate.

我們預計我們的業務不會受到任何無法減輕的重大影響。

And we continue to remain very much committed to providing high-quality pension management services to our customers as we navigate these changes over time.

隨著我們逐漸適應這些變化，我們將繼續致力於為客戶提供高品質的退休金管理服務。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的伊莉絲‧格林斯潘 (Elyse Greenspan)。

My first question is on MIM.

我的第一個問題是關於 MIM 的。

I know that's included within corporate.

我知道這包括在公司範圍內。

And John, I know in December, you told us you guys would start breaking it out, right, this year.

約翰，我知道去年 12 月你就告訴我們，你們會在今年開始實施這項計畫。

So could you give us a sense of how much earnings MIM contributed in '24 and the growth that you're expecting in MIM in 2025 within your guide?

那麼，您能否告訴我們 MIM 在 24 年貢獻了多少收益，以及您預計 2025 年 MIM 的成長？

Good morning, Elyse.

早安，伊莉絲。

Look, we'll do all that when we start to break out the segment.

你看，當我們開始細分市場時，我們會做所有這些事情。

The way -- and the reason why I hesitate to start doing that now is what we try to do today was -- is provide you the outlook based on our current state.

我現在猶豫是否開始這麼做的原因是，我們今天嘗試做的事情是，根據我們的現狀為您提供展望。

And as you just said, MIM's incorporated in that, but it's spread out.

正如您剛才所說，MIM 已融入其中，但它已經分散。

So we -- I'm reluctant to throw out a number that then creates other confusion.

因此我們—我不願意說出一個會造成其他混亂的數字。

So I think for modeling purposes, I would stick to the segmentation that we have today.

因此我認為，出於建模目的，我會堅持我們今天的細分。

As we said at Investor Day, we expect to report MIM as a segment in '25.

正如我們在投資者日所說的那樣，我們預計將在 25 年將 MIM 作為一個部門進行報告。

But in light of the recent announcement of PineBridge, we are now aiming to do that in -- to coincide with the closing of the transaction.

但鑑於 PineBridge 最近宣布的消息，我們現在的目標是在交易完成時完成這一目標。

And you can all thank John Hall.

你們都應該感謝約翰·霍爾。

He said that you worked very hard, all of you, and that we wanted to make it easier for you to do all your model changes.

他說你們都非常努力，我們想讓你們更輕鬆地完成所有模型變更。

So that was -- you can thank him in due time.

所以那是——你可以及時感謝他。

So we expect the timing of the close to be in the second half of '25.

因此，我們預計收盤時間將在2025年下半年。

We have a number of regulatory approvals that we have to get done, but the team is working intensely to get those completed.

我們有多項監管部門的批准需要完成，但團隊正在努力完成這些批准。

So that would be our timing of when we get more info on MIM.

這就是我們獲取更多有關 MIM 資訊的時間。

And then one last quick one.

最後再簡單說一下。

It sounds like you guys are using the forward curve, right, for some of the currency assumptions within the guide.

聽起來你們正在使用遠期曲線，對吧，對於指南中的某些貨幣假設。

I'm just trying to get a sense if there's upside or even downside risk to some of the international earnings as currency moves during 2025.

我只是想知道，隨著 2025 年貨幣變動，部分國際收益是否會出現上行甚至下行的風險。

Yeah, that's correct, Elyse.

是的，伊莉絲，沒錯。

We tend to just lock in on the 12/31 forward curves.

我們傾向於鎖定 12/31 遠期曲線。

And I think the places where we're seeing the most change over the last three months is primarily Latin America.

我認為過去三個月我們看到變化最大的地方主要是拉丁美洲。

You saw that mostly throughout the fourth quarter happen.

您會看到這種情況在整個第四季大部分時間都在發生。

So the average for the year is really pressured there.

因此，今年的平均值確實面臨壓力。

I think from here, we see maybe a little more weakening from the spot rate.

我認為從現在來看，我們可能會看到現貨匯率進一步下跌。

So I think at the end of 2025, it's somewhere a little above 21%, where we're maybe hovering in the 20s today.

因此我認為到 2025 年底，這個數字會略高於 21%，而今天這個數字可能徘徊在 20% 左右。

And then also Asia as well.

還有亞洲。

So we use a forward curve.

因此我們使用遠期曲線。

I think we're in like -- the yen today is in the [154] range or so, something like that.

我認為我們現在的狀況是－日圓現在的匯率在[154]左右。

And we're -- I think the forward curve says spot rate will be low 50s, somewhere around there.

而且我們 — — 我認為遠期曲線表明現貨匯率將在 50 的低位，大約在這個水平左右。

So there's -- I think on average, there's a little pressure if you take the average for the year.

所以 — — 我認為，如果按年取平均值，平均而言，會有一點壓力。

So it's a little bit of a headwind as well as some of the other Asian currencies.

因此，它和其他一些亞洲貨幣一樣，都面臨一些阻力。

So hopefully, that helps.

希望這能有所幫助。

This concludes our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

I will now turn the call back over to John Hall for closing remarks.

現在我將電話轉回給約翰·霍爾，請他作最後發言。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us.

感謝大家加入我們。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。