大都會人壽保險 (MET) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。

Welcome to the MetLife third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加大都會人壽 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

Before we get started, I refer you to the cautionary note about forward-looking statements in yesterday's earnings release and to risk factors discussed in MetLife's SEC filings.

在我們開始之前，我請您參閱昨天收益發布中有關前瞻性陳述的警示說明以及大都會人壽向 SEC 提交的文件中討論的風險因素。

With that, I will turn the call over to John Hall, Global Head of Investor Relations.

接下來，我會將電話轉給投資者關係全球主管約翰‧霍爾 (John Hall)。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，接線生。

Good morning all.

大家早安。

We appreciate you joining MetLife's third-quarter 2024 earnings call.

我們感謝您參加大都會人壽 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

Before we begin, I'd point you to information on non-GAAP measures on the Investor Relations portion of metlife.com, in our earnings release, and in our quarterly financial supplements, which you should review.

在我們開始之前，我想向您介紹metlife.com 投資者關係部分、我們的收益發布和季度財務補充資料中有關非公認會計準則衡量標準的信息，您應該查看這些信息。

On the call this morning are Michel Khalaf, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John McCallion, Chief Financial Officer.

今天早上接聽電話的是總裁兼執行長米歇爾·哈拉夫 (Michel Khalaf)；和財務長約翰·麥考利恩。

Other members of senior management are also available to participate.

其他高階主管也可以參加。

We released our supplemental slides last night, and they are available on our website.

我們昨晚發布了補充幻燈片，它們可以在我們的網站上找到。

John McCallion will speak to them in his prepared remarks.

約翰·麥考利恩將在他準備好的演講中向他們發表講話。

An appendix to the slides features disclosures, GAAP reconciliations, and other information for your review.

投影片的附錄包含揭露資訊、GAAP 調節表和其他資訊供您審查。

Q&A will follow prepared remarks and will end just before the top of the hour.

問答將在準備好的發言之後進行，並在整點前結束。

(Event Instructions)

（活動須知）

On to Michel.

轉向米歇爾。

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。

Last night, MetLife reported third-quarter results, which while absorbing pressure on variable investment income affirm the financial attractiveness of our businesses.

昨晚，大都會人壽公佈了第三季業績，在吸收可變投資收入壓力的同時，肯定了我們業務的財務吸引力。

Taking a wider view, year-to-date adjusted earnings per share, excluding notable items, are up 12%, pointing to our broader-based momentum and a favorable underlying environment for our global set of market-leading businesses.

從更廣泛的角度來看，年初至今的調整後每股收益（不包括顯著項目）增長了 12%，這表明我們基礎更廣泛的勢頭以及我們全球市場領先業務的有利基礎環境。

In the US, unemployment remains at historically low levels, inflation appears to be under control, and the yield curve has started to see a positive slope beyond two years.

在美國，失業率仍處於歷史低位，通膨似乎受到控制，殖利率曲線在兩年後開始出現正斜率。

These are conditions that favor both our group benefits and our retirement and income solutions businesses.

這些條件有利於我們的團體福利以及我們的退休和收入解決方案業務。

Outside the US, we are seeing a promising backdrop for many of our key markets.

在美國以外，我們看到許多關鍵市場前景光明。

For instance, in Japan, the combination of modest inflation, the 10-year JGB near 1% and government incentives to save has the potential to put money in motion, moving from the sidelines and into the investment and insurance products MetLife offers.

例如，在日本，溫和的通膨、接近 1% 的 10 年期日本國債以及政府的儲蓄激勵措施相結合，有可能推動資金從場外轉向大都會人壽提供的投資和保險產品。

Elsewhere around the world, in Mexico, near-shoring activities can put more people to work and at higher wages, which is good for the Mexican economy as well as for our business there.

在世界其他地方，在墨西哥，近岸活動可以讓更多的人工作並獲得更高的工資，這對墨西哥經濟以及我們在那裡的業務都有好處。

While in Brazil, the rapid adoption of digital distribution channels for financial products is democratizing financial services and bringing them to a wider audience of customers.

在巴西，金融產品數位分銷管道的迅速採用正在使金融服務民主化，並將其帶給更廣泛的客戶群。

Still, the geopolitical conditions that persist in many regions remain challenging, and we have an election here in the US next week.

儘管如此，許多地區持續存在的地緣政治狀況仍然充滿挑戰，而且美國下週將舉行大選。

Yet throughout its 156-year history, MetLife has successfully managed risk and found opportunity in uncertain times.

然而，在其 156 年的歷史中，大都會人壽成功地管理了風險，並在不確定的時期發現了機會。

Our purpose, always with you building a more confident future, resonates at times like these, and I have every confidence that MetLife will continue to create value for our customers, shareholders and other stakeholders going forward.

我們的宗旨是始終與您一起建立更有自信的未來，在這樣的時刻引起共鳴，我完全相信大都會人壽將繼續為我們的客戶、股東和其他利害關係人創造價值。

Turning to the quarter.

轉向季度。

We reported adjusted earnings of $1.4 billion or $1.95 per share.

我們公佈的調整後收益為 14 億美元，即每股 1.95 美元。

After reflecting net positive notable items from our annual actuarial assumption review and other insurance adjustments, adjusted earnings per share totaled $1.93 per share.

在反映我們的年度精算假設審查和其他保險調整的淨正顯著項目後，調整後每股收益總計為 1.93 美元。

Recurring interest margins, underwriting, and foreign currency exchange rates were all less favorable than a year ago, partially offset by volume growth and higher equity markets.

經常性息差、承銷和外幣匯率均不如一年前有利，部分被銷售成長和股市上漲所抵銷。

As we had previously indicated, private equity returns came in below expectations, leading variable investment income, or VII, to dip under the prior-year period results.

正如我們先前指出的，私募股權回報低於預期，導致可變投資收益（VII）低於去年同期業績。

At the same time, real estate and other fund returns improved sequentially, extending the trend we've seen developed through the year.

同時，房地產和其他基金回報率連續改善，延續了我們今年所看到的趨勢。

In the quarter, our key performance metrics reflect the power of our business.

在本季度，我們的關鍵績效指標反映了我們業務的實力。

MetLife posted a 14.6% adjusted return on equity, and we are on track to exceed our 13% to 15% target range for the full year.

大都會人壽公佈的調整後股本回報率為 14.6%，我們預計將超過全年 13% 至 15% 的目標範圍。

This further demonstrates our focus on deploying capital to generate responsible growth and high returns.

這進一步表明我們專注於部署資本以實現負責任的成長和高回報。

And our efficiency mindset was evident in MetLife's third-quarter direct expense ratio of 11.7%, an improvement year over year and below our 12.3% annual target.

大都會人壽第三季直接費用率為 11.7%，年比有所改善，低於我們 12.3% 的年度目標，這充分體現了我們的效率理念。

Shifting to business segment results.

轉向業務部門業績。

Our group benefits business reported adjusted earnings of $431 million, excluding notable items, down from a strong underwriting quarter a year ago.

我們的團體福利業務報告調整後收益為 4.31 億美元（不包括顯著項目），低於一年前強勁的核保季度。

On a year-to-date basis, also excluding notable items, adjusted earnings are up 7%.

年初至今（也不包括值得注意的項目）調整後收益成長了 7%。

Our scale and broad product range have long been points of competitive differentiation for our group benefits business, contributing to our adjusted premiums, fees, and other revenue growth.

我們的規模和廣泛的產品範圍長期以來一直是我們團體福利業務的競爭優勢點，有助於我們調整後的保費、費用和其他收入的成長。

In the quarter, adjusted PFOs, excluding the (inaudible) policies, rose 5.3%.

本季度，調整後的 PFO（不包括（聽不清楚）政策）上漲了 5.3%。

For the year-to-date period, adjusted PFOs on the same basis similarly grew 5.5%.

今年迄今，調整後的 PFO 在相同基礎上同樣成長了 5.5%。

With employee benefits enrollment season again upon us, this year, more than 1 million US employees will be able to make their enrollment experiences easier by using MetLife's Upwise, a newly developed tool, to help them choose and use their benefits.

隨著員工福利登記季再次到來，今年，超過 100 萬名美國員工將能夠使用大都會人壽新開發的工具 Upwise，幫助他們選擇和使用福利，從而讓他們的登記體驗變得更加輕鬆。

Upwise simplifies benefits selection by making custom recommendations based on an employee's individual needs and preferences.

Upwise 根據員工的個人需求和偏好提出客製化建議，簡化福利選擇。

And Upwise is important because our research shows that more informed benefit selection decisions lead to a more engaged and productive workforce, a win for employees and employers.

Upwise 很重要，因為我們的研究表明，更明智的福利選擇決策可以提高員工的敬業度和生產力，這對員工和雇主來說都是雙贏。

Moving to retirement and income solutions, or RIS.

轉向退休和收入解決方案（RIS）。

Adjusted earnings, excluding notable items, totaled $368 million in the quarter, reflecting the impact of interest rate caps maturing.

本季調整後收益（不包括重要項目）總計 3.68 億美元，反映了利率上限到期的影響。

Sales of stable value and UK longevity reinsurance remains strong, and we maintain our leadership position in the competitive jumbo pension risk transfer space.

穩定價值和英國長壽再保險的銷售仍然強勁，我們在競爭激烈的巨額退休金風險轉移領域保持領先地位。

With a strong start to the fourth quarter, we've now closed $5.6 billion of PRT sales so far in 2024.

隨著第四季的強勁開局，我們在 2024 年迄今已完成了 56 億美元的 PRT 銷售額。

We published our annual pension risk transfer poll last month, which continues to point to a robust pension risk transfer pipeline.

我們上個月發布了年度退休金風險轉移民意調查，該調查繼續顯示退休金風險轉移管道強勁。

The 2024 poll found that among companies with defined benefit pension de-risking goals, a full 93% intend to completely divest their plans, up from 89% in the 2023 poll.

2024 年的民意調查發現，在製定了固定福利退休金去風險目標的公司中，93% 的公司打算完全剝離其計劃，高於 2023 年民意調查的 89%。

Moreover, about half of these companies plan to divest in the next two to five years.

此外，這些公司中約有一半計劃在未來兩到五年內撤資。

Turning to Asia.

轉向亞洲。

Adjusted earnings, excluding notable items, were $347 million, down 6% from the year-ago quarter on market-related items, partially offset by favorable underwriting margins.

不包括重要項目的調整後收益為 3.47 億美元，市場相關項目較去年同期下降 6%，部分被有利的承保利潤率所抵銷。

On a year-to-date basis, adjusted earnings grew 16%.

今年迄今，調整後收益成長了 16%。

Asia's general account assets under management, a key measure for this region, grew 6% year over year on a constant currency basis.

亞洲管理的普通帳戶資產（該地區的關鍵指標）以固定匯率計算年增 6%。

Looking to Latin America.

放眼拉丁美洲。

We saw strong bottom-line results with adjusted earnings excluding notable items of $217 million, rising 9% from a year ago.

我們看到了強勁的底線業績，扣除重要項目後的調整後收益為 2.17 億美元，比去年同期增長 9%。

On a constant currency basis, sales and adjusted PFOs both grew double digits.

以固定匯率計算，銷售額和調整後的 PFO 均達到兩位數成長。

Our momentum in Latin America has been building for some time.

我們在拉丁美洲的勢頭已經建立了一段時間。

This can be seen in Brazil, where we have seized upon the growing adoption of digital distribution of financial sales to partner with some of the leading players in that market.

這可以在巴西看到，我們抓住了金融銷售數位化分銷日益普及的機會，與該市場的一些領先企業合作。

To capture this opportunity, we have deployed an integrated technology solution called Accelerator, which allows us to meet customers where they are.

為了抓住這個機會，我們部署了一個名為 Accelerator 的整合技術解決方案，它使我們能夠滿足客戶的需求。

MetLife Accelerator helps leading banks, retailers, and other companies offer insurance to our customers with a simple, frictionless, and fully digital insurance experience.

MetLife Accelerator 幫助領先的銀行、零售商和其他公司為我們的客戶提供簡單、順暢和全數位化的保險體驗。

Starting in Brazil.

從巴西開始。

We branched out to bring this innovative technology to other core markets in Latin America, including Mexico and Chile, with more than 4 million in-force customers in the region since launching a year ago.

我們將這項創新技術推廣到拉丁美洲的其他核心市場，包括墨西哥和智利，自一年前推出以來，該地區擁有超過 400 萬有效客戶。

For some time now, we have spoken to the importance of value of new business as a critical management tool.

一段時間以來，我們一直在談論新業務價值作為關鍵管理工具的重要性。

Our focus and the intensity of our execution across this metric is truly impressive.

我們對這項指標的關注和執行力度確實令人印象深刻。

For 2023, we generated a 19% internal rate of return on $3.6 billion of capital deployed, creating VNB of $2.6 billion with a payback period of roughly five years.

到 2023 年，我們部署的 36 億美元資本的內部報酬率為 19%，創造了 26 億美元的 VNB，投資回收期約為五年。

It is even more impressive when you consider the substantial progress we've made over the course of the Next Horizon timeframe, a 400-basis-point increase in IRR and a two-year decrease in payback period, all of which adds up to more cash sooner.

考慮到我們在 Next Horizo​​n 時間框架內取得的實質進展、IRR 增加 400 個基點以及投資回收期縮短兩年，所有這些加起來就更令人印象深刻了。

As you can see from our VNB numbers, MetLife prioritizes organic growth with attractive payback periods and internal rates of return.

正如您從我們的 VNB 數據中看到的，大都會人壽優先考慮具有有吸引力的投資回收期和內部回報率的有機增長。

We also favor strategic inorganic growth with similar financial characteristics.

我們也青睞具有類似財務特徵的策略性無機成長。

When appropriate organic and inorganic opportunities are not available, we will return capital to shareholders via share repurchase while also generating attractive IRRs.

當沒有適當的有機和無機機會時，我們將透過股票回購向股東返還資本，同時產生有吸引力的內部報酬率。

Our track record proves this out.

我們的記錄證明了這一點。

In the third quarter, we were again active in capital management and returned close to $1.2 billion to shareholders via common stock dividends and share repurchase.

第三季度，我們再次積極進行資本管理，透過普通股股利和股票回購向股東返還近12億美元。

We distributed common stock dividends of roughly $400 million and bought back approximately $800 million of our common shares.

我們發放了約 4 億美元的普通股股息，並回購了約 8 億美元的普通股。

This brings total common stock repurchase through the third quarter to about $2.8 billion.

這使得第三季普通股回購總額達到約 28 億美元。

We still have more than $2 billion remaining on our Board authorization.

我們的董事會授權仍有超過 20 億美元剩餘。

Finally, at the end of the third quarter, we had $4.5 billion of cash and liquid assets at our holding companies, which is above our target cash buffer of $3 billion to $4 billion.

最後，在第三季末，我們的控股公司擁有 45 億美元的現金和流動資產，這超出了我們 30 億至 40 億美元現金緩衝的目標。

To wrap up, we are moving closer to our December 12 Investor Day, where we are excited to roll out our next five-year strategy, New Frontier.

最後，我們距離 12 月 12 日投資者日越來越近，我們很高興在這一天推出我們的下一個五年策略「New Frontier」。

As I have mentioned, New Frontier is not a radical change in direction for MetLife.

正如我所提到的，New Frontier 並不是大都會人壽方向的根本性改變。

Rather, it takes us to places where we have the right to win.

相反，它會把我們帶到我們有權利獲勝的地方。

It is a growth platform that builds on the success of Next Horizon and provides a pathway to lead MetLife to even stronger performance in the future.

它是一個建立在 Next Horizo​​n 成功基礎上的成長平台，並為帶領大都會人壽在未來取得更強勁的業績提供了一條途徑。

We are in a much different position than we were five years ago, more front-footed and oriented towards offense versus defense.

與五年前相比，我們的處境有很大不同，我們更主動，更注重進攻和防守。

I look forward to expanding on the precepts of New Frontier, which are anchored on accelerating growth, boosting returns, and fostering greater consistency.

我期待著擴展新前沿的原則，這些原則的基礎是加速成長、提高回報和促進更大的一致性。

Now, I'll turn it over to John to cover our quarterly performance in more detail.

現在，我將把它交給約翰，以更詳細地介紹我們的季度業績。

Thank you, Michel, and good morning.

謝謝你，米歇爾，早安。

I'll start with the 3Q '24 supplemental slides, which provide highlights of our financial performance, including details of our annual global actuarial assumption review.

我將從 24 年第三季的補充幻燈片開始，其中重點介紹了我們的財務業績，包括我們年度全球精算假設審查的詳細資訊。

In addition, I'll provide updates on our value of new business metrics and our liquidity and capital position.

此外，我將提供有關新業務指標價值以及流動性和資本狀況的最新資訊。

Starting on page 3, we provide a comparison of net income to adjusted earnings in the third quarter.

從第 3 頁開始，我們提供了第三季淨利與調整後收益的比較。

Net income was $1.3 billion, $100 million lower than adjusted earnings.

淨利潤為 13 億美元，比調整後收益低 1 億美元。

We had net derivative gains primarily due to the strengthening of the yen versus the US dollar and the decline in interest rates in the third quarter.

我們的衍生性商品淨收益主要是由於日圓兌美元走強以及第三季利率下降。

That said, derivative gains were partially offset by market risk benefit, or MRB, remeasurement losses due to lower interest rates.

也就是說，衍生性商品收益被市場風險收益（MRB）以及利率下降導致的重新計量損失部分抵銷。

Net investment losses were modest, reflecting normal trading activity and a continuation of a stable credit environment.

淨投資損失不大，反映出正常的交易活動和穩定的信貸環境的持續。

Overall, the investment portfolio remains high quality and resilient and our hedging program performed as expected.

整體而言，投資組合仍然保持高品質和彈性，我們的對沖計劃表現符合預期。

The table on page 4 provides highlights of our annual actuarial assumption review and other insurance adjustments with the breakdown of the adjusted earnings and net income impact by segment.

第 4 頁的表格重點介紹了我們的年度精算假設審查和其他保險調整，並按部門細分了調整後收益和淨利潤影響。

Overall, the impact to adjusted earnings and net income was modest.

整體而言，對調整後收益和淨利的影響不大。

In group benefits, we had an unfavorable impact due to a liability refinement related to an annuity payout feature on a small subset of our Group Life portfolio.

在團體福利方面，由於與我們團體人壽投資組合的一小部分年金支付功能相關的責任細化，我們產生了不利的影響。

There is no ongoing impact due to this refinement.

此改進不會產生持續影響。

In retirement and income solutions, or RIS, while we have maintained our long-term mortality trend assumption consistent with pre-COVID.

在退休和收入解決方案（RIS）中，我們保持了與新冠疫情之前一致的長期死亡率趨勢假設。

This reflects the impact of higher mortality over the last few years, which resulted in a positive impact to adjusted earnings.

這反映了過去幾年死亡率上升的影響，這對調整後的收入產生了積極影響。

And in Asia, the net unfavorable impact was primarily due to three factors: unfavorable changes to lapsed assumptions across life and accident health products in Japan, lower expected fund returns for variable life products in Korea, and these were partially offset by a positive impact from improved morbidity for accident and health products in Japan and Korea.

在亞洲，淨不利影響主要歸因於三個因素：日本壽險和意外健康產品的失效假設發生不利變化，韓國可變壽險產品的預期基金回報率較低，而這些因素被日本和韓國的事故和保健產品的發生率有所改善。

On page 5, you can see the third-quarter year-over-year comparison of adjusted earnings by segment, excluding notable items.

在第 5 頁，您可以看到按部門劃分的第三季調整後收益的年比比較（不包括值得注意的項目）。

Adjusted earnings were $1.4 billion, down 8% and 6% on a constant currency basis primarily due to lower recurring interest margins, partially offset by solid volume growth year over year.

調整後收益為 14 億美元，以固定匯率計算分別下降 8% 和 6%，主要是由於經常性息差較低，但銷量同比穩健增長部分抵消了這一影響。

Adjusted earnings per share were $1.93, down 1% on a reported basis but up 1% on a constant currency basis.

調整後每股收益為 1.93 美元，按報告數據計算下降 1%，但以固定匯率計算成長 1%。

Moving to the businesses.

轉向企業。

Group benefits adjusted earnings were $431 million, down 11% year over year, primarily due to less favorable nonmedical health underwriting margins versus a strong comparison in Q3 of '23.

集團福利調整後收益為 4.31 億美元，年減 11%，主要是由於與 23 年第三季的強勁對比相比，非醫療健康承保利潤率較差。

The Group Life mortality ratio was 85.6% and 82.4% when excluding the notable items discussed earlier.

排除前面討論的值得注意的項目後，團體人壽死亡率分別為 85.6% 和 82.4%。

This was below our annual target of 84% to 89%.

這低於我們 84% 至 89% 的年度目標。

Our mortality results remain seasonally strong, albeit following record-low life claims in 2Q of '24.

儘管 2024 年第二季的生命主張創下歷史新低，但我們的死亡率結果仍保持季節性強勁。

Year to date, our Group Life mortality ratio remained at the low end of our annual target range, although we would expect the ratio to be toward the middle of the range in the fourth quarter.

今年迄今為止，我們的團體壽險死亡率仍處於年度目標範圍的低端，儘管我們預計該比率將在第四季度接近該範圍的中間。

Regarding nonmedical health, the interest-adjusted benefit ratio was 72.4% in the quarter, within our annual target range of 69% to 70% but higher than the prior year quarter of 69% or 70.4% excluding a favorable notable item related to disability in 3Q of '23.

在非醫療健康方面，本季經利率調整後的福利比率為72.4%，在我們69% 至70% 的年度目標範圍內，但高於去年同期的69% 或70.4%（不包括與殘疾相關的有利的值得注意項目） 23 年第三季。

Turning to the top line.

轉向頂線。

Group benefits adjusted PFOs were up 5% year-over-year and at the midpoint of our 2024 target growth range of 4% to 6%.

集團福利調整後的 PFO 年成長 5%，處於我們 2024 年目標成長範圍 4% 至 6% 的中點。

Group benefits year-to-date sales were up 9% driven by strong growth in national accounts.

在國民帳強勁成長的推動下，集團今年迄今的銷售額成長了 9%。

RIS adjusted earnings were $368 million, down 10% versus the prior year.

RIS 調整後收益為 3.68 億美元，比上年下降 10%。

Lower recurring interest margins were partially offset by strong volume growth and favorable underwriting margins.

較低的經常性息差被強勁的銷售成長和有利的承保利潤率部分抵消。

RIS total investment spreads were 106 basis points, down 15 basis points sequentially mainly due to the continued expiration of interest rate caps and lower variable investment income.

RIS總投資利差為106個基點，季減15個基點，主要是由於利率上限持續到期和可變投資收益下降。

As we highlighted in the Q2 earnings call, the continued roll-off of the interest rate caps drove the majority of the sequential decline.

正如我們在第二季財報電話會議中所強調的那樣，利率上限的持續下調推動了大部分環比下降。

Given the vast majority of interest caps have expired and based on the current forward interest rate curve, we expect fourth-quarter spreads, excluding variable investment income, to now stabilize and be flat to up 1 to 2 basis points.

鑑於絕大多數利率上限已到期，並且根據當前的遠期利率曲線，我們預計第四季度利差（不包括可變投資收益）目前將穩定並持平，上升 1 至 2 個基點。

RIS adjusted PFOs, excluding pension risk transfers, were up 3% year over year primarily driven by strong sales in UK longevity reinsurance.

RIS 調整後的 PFO（不包括退休金風險轉移）年增 3%，這主要是由於英國長壽再保險的強勁銷售所致。

With regards to PRT, we continue to see an active market.

就 PRT 而言，我們繼續看到活躍的市場。

We had premiums of approximately $500 million in the third quarter, and we have already seen a strong start to Q4 with over $1.5 billion in PRT wins in the past month alone.

我們第三季的保費約為 5 億美元，我們已經看到第四季度的強勁開局，僅過去一個月就贏得了超過 15 億美元的 PRT。

Moving to Asia.

搬到亞洲。

Adjusted earnings were $347 million, down 6% and 5% on a constant currency basis primarily due to market-related items in the quarter, partially offset by favorable underwriting margins.

調整後收益為 3.47 億美元，以固定匯率計算分別下降 6% 和 5%，主要是由於本季度的市場相關項目所致，但部分被有利的承保利潤所抵消。

For Asia's growth metrics, general account assets under management on an amortized cost basis were up 6% year over year on a constant currency basis.

就亞洲成長指標而言，以攤餘成本計算的普通帳戶管理資產以固定匯率計算年增 6%。

Asia sales were down 1% on a constant currency basis.

以固定匯率計算，亞洲銷售額下降 1%。

Lower Japan sales were mostly offset by other Asian markets, which were up 10%, most notably due to strong growth in India and China.

日本銷售額的下降大部分被其他亞洲市場的成長 10% 所抵消，其中最引人注目的是印度和中國的強勁成長。

In Japan, sales were down 7% year over year primarily due to the impact of yen volatility on foreign currency products.

在日本，銷售額較去年同期下降7%，主要是因為日圓波動對外幣產品的影響。

However, we continue to see a favorable outlook given higher interest rates and positive macro changes in Japan.

然而，鑑於日本利率上升和積極的宏觀變化，我們仍然看到良好的前景。

For example, our refreshed yen-denominated variable life and cancer products introduced earlier this year have performed well.

例如，我們今年稍早推出的新的以日圓計價的可變生命和癌症產品表現良好。

Latin America adjusted earnings were $217 million, up 9% and 21% on a constant currency basis primarily driven by strong Chilean encaje returns in the quarter and volume growth in our key markets.

拉丁美洲調整後收益為 2.17 億美元，按固定匯率計算分別增長 9% 和 21%，這主要是受到本季度智利 encaje 強勁回報和我們主要市場銷量增長的推動。

Latin America's top line also continues to perform well as adjusted PFOs were up 1% or 11% on a constant currency basis driven by strong sales and solid persistency across the region.

拉丁美洲的營收也持續表現良好，在該地區強勁的銷售和穩定的持續性的推動下，調整後的 PFO 按固定匯率計算增長了 1% 或 11%。

Turning to EMEA.

轉向歐洲、中東和非洲地區。

Adjusted earnings were $75 million, up 7% on a reported basis and 9% on a constant currency basis, primarily driven by strong volume growth year over year.

調整後收益為 7,500 萬美元，按報告計算成長 7%，以固定匯率計算成長 9%，主要是由於銷量較去年同期強勁成長。

EMEA adjusted PFOs were up 11% and 18% on a constant currency basis driven by growth across the region, and sales were up 32% on a constant currency basis primarily from Turkey and Egypt.

受該地區成長的推動，歐洲、中東和非洲地區調整後的 PFO 以固定匯率計算分別成長 11% 和 18%，主要來自土耳其和埃及的銷售額以固定匯率計算成長 32%。

MetLife Holdings adjusted earnings were $170 million, down 17% versus the prior-year quarter.

MetLife Holdings 調整後收益為 1.7 億美元，比去年同期下降 17%。

The primary driver was the foregone earnings due to the reinsurance transaction that closed in November of 2023.

主要驅動因素是 2023 年 11 月完成的再保險交易所導致的收益損失。

Corporate and other adjusted loss was $249 million versus an adjusted loss of $262 million in the prior year.

公司及其他調整後虧損為 2.49 億美元，而上一年調整後虧損為 2.62 億美元。

The company's effective tax rate on adjusted earnings in the quarter was approximately 24% and within our 2024 guidance range of 24% to 26%.

該公司本季調整後收益的有效稅率約為 24%，在我們 2024 年 24%​​ 至 26% 的指導範圍內。

On page 6, this chart reflects our pretax investment income for the prior five quarters, including $162 million in Q3 of '24.

第 6 頁的圖表反映了我們前五個季度的稅前投資收入，其中包括 2024 年第三季的 1.62 億美元。

This was down $17 million versus Q3 of '23.

與 23 年第三季相比，這一數字減少了 1,700 萬美元。

The private equity portfolio, which had over $14 billion in VII assets as of September 30, had a positive 0.6% return in the quarter.

截至 9 月 30 日，該私募股權投資組合擁有超過 140 億美元的 VII 資產，該季度的回報率為 0.6%。

This compared to a 1.4% return in Q3 of '23.

相比之下，23 年第三季的回報率為 1.4%。

While PE returns were below recent trends, our real-estate-related and other funds of roughly $4.5 billion continued to improve with a 1.1% return in the quarter.

雖然 PE 回報率低於近期趨勢，但我們約 45 億美元的房地產相關基金和其他基金繼續改善，本季回報率為 1.1%。

As a reminder, PE, real-estate-related and other funds are reported on a one-quarter lag and accounted for on a mark-to-market basis.

需要提醒的是，私募股權基金、房地產相關基金和其他基金的報告落後四分之一，並以市值計算。

On page 7, we provide VII post-tax by segment for the last four quarters and the third quarter of '24.

在第 7 頁，我們提供了過去四個季度和 2024 年第三季按部門劃分的 VII 稅後資料。

As you can see in the chart, Asia and MetLife Holdings continue to hold the largest proportion of VII assets given their long-dated liability profile.

正如您在圖表中看到的，考慮到長期負債狀況，亞洲和大都會人壽控股公司繼續持有 VII 資產的最大比例。

Now turning to page 8.

現在翻到第8頁。

The chart on the left of the page illustrates the split of our adjusted net investment income between recurring and VII for the last three years, including third quarter of 2023 and '24.

頁面左側的圖表顯示了過去三年（包括 2023 年第三季和 2024 年）我們調整後的經常性淨投資收入和 VII 之間的分配情況。

Adjusted net investment income in Q3 of '24 was essentially flat versus the prior year.

2024 年第三季調整後淨投資收入與前一年基本持平。

While recurring investment income has benefited from asset growth and higher interest rates, it has been offset by the roll-off of interest rate caps.

雖然經常性投資收益受益於資產成長和利率上升，但已被利率上限的下調所抵消。

Turning your attention to the right side of the page.

將注意力轉向頁面的右側。

This shows our new money rate versus roll-off yield since the third quarter of '21.

這顯示了自 21 年第三季以來我們的新貨幣利率與滾降收益率的比較。

Over the last 10 quarters, new money yields have outpaced roll-off yields, consistent with higher interest rates.

在過去 10 個季度中，新貨幣收益率超過了滾存收益率，這與較高的利率一致。

In Q3 of '24, our global new money rate achieved a yield of 6%, 22 basis points higher than the roll-off rate.

2024 年第三季度，我們的全球新貨幣利率實現了 6% 的收益率，比滾降利率高出 22 個基點。

The narrowing of the spread between new money rates and roll-off yields in 3Q was primarily due to a roughly 70-basis-point decline in US interest rates and elevated pay downs in the quarter of recently purchased higher-yield securities.

第三季新貨幣利率與滾存收益率之間的利差收窄，主要是由於美國利率下降了約 70 個基點，以及最近購買的高收益證券在本季的支付率上升。

That said, the proceeds from these pay downs in 3Q have been reinvested in high relative value public and private assets with similar yields.

也就是說，第三季這些減薪的收益已再投資於殖利率相似的高相對價值公共和私人資產。

I would also note that the new money rate-related purchases in 3Q of roughly $14 billion, more than twice that of the invested assets rolling off.

我還要指出，第三季與貨幣利率相關的新購買量約為 140 億美元，是投資資產滾存量的兩倍多。

So while the difference between our new money rates and roll-off yields shown here is as an indicative metric for future investment margin impact, it's only directional in nature and not a perfect depiction of spread impacts.

因此，雖然這裡顯示的新貨幣利率和滾存收益率之間的差異是作為未來投資利潤影響的指標性指標，但它本質上只是方向性的，並不能完美地描述利差影響。

At these levels, we continue to see positive impact of higher yields on our in-force and new business growth.

在這些水平上，我們繼續看到更高的收益率對我們的有效業務和新業務成長產生積極影響。

Now, moving to expenses on page 9.

現在，轉到第 9 頁的費用。

This chart shows a comparison of our direct expense ratio for the full year 2023 of 12.2% and the first three quarters to '24 all below 12%, including 11.7% in Q3 of '24.

這張圖表顯示了我們 2023 年全年 12.2% 的直接費用率與 2024 年前三個季度的直接費用率均低於 12%，其中包括 24 年第三季的 11.7%。

As we have highlighted previously, we believe our full-year direct expense ratio is the best way to measure performance due to fluctuations in quarterly results.

正如我們之前所強調的那樣，我們認為，由於季度業績的波動，我們的全年直接費用率是衡量業績的最佳方式。

Our Q3 direct expense ratio benefited from solid top-line growth and ongoing expense discipline.

我們第三季的直接費用比率受益於穩健的營收成長和持續的費用紀律。

Looking ahead, we would expect our direct expense ratio to be higher in the fourth quarter, consistent with the seasonal nature of our business.

展望未來，我們預計第四季度的直接費用率將更高，這與我們業務的季節性特徵一致。

That said, our performance year-to-date positions us to beat our full-year 2024 direct expense ratio target of 12.3%, demonstrating our consistent execution and a sustained efficiency mindset.

也就是說，我們今年迄今的業績使我們能夠超越 2024 年全年直接費用率 12.3% 的目標，這表明我們始終如一的執行力和持續的效率思維。

Now, let's turn to page 10.

現在，讓我們翻到第10頁。

This chart reflects new business value metrics for MetLife's major segments for the past five years, including an update for 2023.

這張圖表反映了大都會人壽主要部門過去五年的新業務價值指標，包括 2023 年的更新。

MetLife invested $3.6 billion of capital in 2023 to support new business.

大都會人壽在 2023 年投資 36 億美元資本來支持新業務。

This was deployed at an average unlevered IRR of approximately 19% with a payback period of five years, generating roughly $2.6 billion in value.

該項目的平均無槓桿 IRR 約為 19%，投資回收期為 5 年，創造了約 26 億美元的價值。

I will now discuss our cash and capital position on page 11.

我現在將在第 11 頁討論我們的現金和資本狀況。

Cash and liquid assets at the holding companies were $4.5 billion at September 30, which is above our target cash buffer of $3 billion to $4 billion.

截至 9 月 30 日，控股公司的現金和流動資產為 45 億美元，高於我們 30 億至 40 億美元現金緩衝的目標。

Cash at the holding companies reflects the net effects of subsidiary dividends, payment of our common stock dividend, and share repurchases of roughly $800 million in the third quarter as well as holding company expenses and other cash flows.

控股公司的現金反映了子公司股息、普通股股息支付、第三季約 8 億美元的股票回購以及控股公司費用和其他現金流的淨影響。

In addition, we have repurchased shares totaling approximately $130 million in October.

此外，我們在 10 月回購了總計約 1.3 億美元的股票。

For our US companies, preliminary third-quarter year-to-date 2024 statutory operating earnings were approximately $2.8 billion, essentially flat year over year, while net income was approximately $2 billion.

對於我們的美國公司來說，2024 年迄今第三季法定營業利潤初步約為 28 億美元，比去年同期基本持平，而淨利潤約為 20 億美元。

We estimate that our total US statutory adjusted capital was approximately $17.6 billion as of September 30, 2024, down 2% from June 30, 2024, primarily due to dividends paid and derivative losses, partially offset by operating earnings.

我們估計，截至2024 年9 月30 日，我們的美國法定調整資本總額約為176 億美元，較2024 年6 月30 日下降2%，主要是由於支付的股息和衍生品損失，部分被營業收入抵消。

Finally, we expect the Japan solvency margin ratio to be approximately 745% as of September 30, which will be based on statutory statements that will be filed in the next few weeks.

最後，我們預計截至 9 月 30 日，日本償付能力充足率約為 745%，這將基於未來幾週內提交的法定報表。

Before I wrap up, I would just like to highlight that we have an updated commercial mortgage loan slide as of September 30 in the appendix.

在結束之前，我想強調一下，我們在附錄中提供了截至 9 月 30 日更新的商業抵押貸款幻燈片。

Overall, the CML portfolio continues to perform as expected with attractive loan-to-value and debt service coverage ratios as well as the expectation of modest losses.

整體而言，CML 投資組合的表現持續符合預期，貸款價值比和償債覆蓋率具有吸引力，且損失預期不大。

In summary, while adjusted earnings were below our expectations primarily due to lower VII, the underlying strength of our business fundamentals was evident with strong top-line growth, disciplined underwriting, and prudent expense management.

總而言之，雖然調整後收益低於我們的預期主要是由於 VII 值較低，但我們的業務基本面的潛在實力是顯而易見的，包括強勁的營收成長、嚴格的承保和審慎的費用管理。

In addition, our strong value of new business metrics demonstrate our disciplined approach to deploying capital to its highest and best use, consistent with our all-weather strategy.

此外，我們對新業務指標的強大價值證明了我們將資本部署到最高和最佳用途的嚴格方法，這與我們的全天候策略相一致。

MetLife remains in a position of strength given our balance sheet, free cash flow generation, and diversification of our market-leading businesses, and we are committed to deploying capital to achieve responsible growth and building sustainable value for our customers and our shareholders.

鑑於我們的資產負債表、自由現金流的產生以及市場領先業務的多元化，大都會人壽仍然處於優勢地位，我們致力於部署資本以實現負責任的增長，並為我們的客戶和股東創造可持續的價值。

Finally, let me close by saying that we look forward to seeing many of you on December 12 at our Investor Day, which will focus on the introduction of our New Frontier strategy.

最後，我想說的是，我們期待在 12 月 12 日的投資者日見到你們，屆時將重點介紹我們的新前沿策略。

As we have in the past several years, we will be offering our near-term outlook in early February as part of our fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call.

與過去幾年一樣，我們將在 2 月初提供近期展望，作為 2024 年第四季財報電話會議的一部分。

And with that, I'll turn the call back to the operator for your questions.

然後，我會將電話轉回給接線員詢問您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Suneet Kamath, Jefferies.

（操作員說明）Suneet Kamath，Jefferies。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

I wanted to start with group benefits, if I could.

如果可以的話，我想從團體福利開始。

I know your adjusted loss ratios are in your guide, but maybe a little bit higher than they've been tracking recently.

我知道您的調整後損失率在您的指南中，但可能比他們最近追蹤的要高一些。

So can you just talk a little bit about how you're thinking about pricing in that business, particularly in dental, where I think you've seen some pressure?

那麼，您能否簡單談談您對該業務定價的看法，特別是牙科業務，我認為您在該業務中遇到了一些壓力？

And maybe some comments on the competitive environment as well.

也許還有一些關於競爭環境的評論。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Hey.

嘿。

Good morning, Suneet.

早安，蘇妮特。

Maybe I'll start with the competitive environment.

也許我會從競爭環境開始。

I would reiterate we're not really seeing any change in the competitive environment in group.

我想重申的是，我們並沒有真正看到團體競爭環境有任何變化。

The market has been competitive, remains competitive.

市場競爭一直存在，而且仍然競爭。

But having said that, we always did note that the pricing perspective is not an irrational market, and the short-term nature of the products that we sell, in particular, also dental, means that any aggressive pricing will shop fairly quickly in earnings, which acts as a kind of a natural check on any irrational pricing.

但話雖如此，我們始終注意到定價觀點並不是一個非理性的市場，而且我們銷售的產品（尤其是牙科產品）的短期性質意味著任何激進的定價都會相當快地轉化為收益，這是對任何不合理定價的自然檢查。

So the headline for you here, yeah, it's competitive, not irrational.

所以這裡的標題是，是的，這是競爭性的，而不是非理性的。

And we do see kind of a competitive environment.

我們確實看到了一種競爭環境。

That also extends beyond price as we've also talked about before in terms of capabilities, digital experiences, breadth of product

這也超出了價格的範圍，正如我們之前在功能、數位體驗、產品廣度方面討論過的那樣

[and what have you].

[你有什麼]。

From a ratios perspective, I'll start with life.

從比率的角度來看，我將從生活開始。

We're particularly pleased with the life ratio this quarter.

我們對本季的生命比率特別滿意。

It is still below our lower end of our guidance range once you kind of take that notable piece out.

一旦你把那個值得注意的部分拿出來，它仍然低於我們指導範圍的下限。

And we're benefiting from favorable incidents in the population, and you continue to see that in the CDC population data for the working age population.

我們正從人口中的有利事件中受益，並且您將繼續在疾病預防控制中心的勞動年齡人口數據中看到這一點。

So if you look at that life ratio year to date, we're at 83.9%.

因此，如果你看看今年迄今為止的生命比率，我們是 83.9%。

And even if you were to factor in a seasonally higher Q4 on the life side, we would still be close to the bottom end of the range for life.

即使你將壽險方面第四季的季節性較高因素考慮在內，我們仍將接近壽險範圍的底部。

And then finally, moving on to the nonmedical health ratio.

最後，轉向非醫療健康比率。

We're also within the range, as you pointed.

正如您所指出的，我們也在範圍內。

We did have a number of smaller items in the nonmedical health ratio, which were unfavorable to the ratio.

我們在非醫療健康比例中確實有一些較小的項目，這些項目對比例不利。

Those were worth about a point.

這些大約值一分。

So if you take that out, it would bring us right back in the middle of that range.

所以如果你把它去掉，它會讓我們回到這個範圍的中間。

Then with respect to dental in particular, I did talk about the competitive environment.

然後，特別是在牙科方面，我確實談到了競爭環境。

And we also did talk in the past about a market that's trending back to prepandemic seasonality and utilization levels.

我們過去也確實討論過市場正在回歸到大流行前的季節性和利用率水準。

And we have seen these dynamics play out, and we have been taking actions in terms of pricing.

我們已經看到這些動態的發揮，並且我們一直在定價方面採取行動。

So think of that as really part and parcel of how we manage our dental block through cycles.

因此，請將此視為我們如何透過週期管理牙塊的重要組成部分。

The critical point I would make here is going forward, it's really about ability to reprice and maintain persistency.

我在這裡要提出的關鍵點是前進，這實際上是關於重新定價和維持持久性的能力。

We can reprice about 80% of that business in any given year.

我們可以在任何一年對大約 80% 的業務重新定價。

So while this quarter was higher than our seasonal expectations, our pricing for 1/1 reflects these dynamics.

因此，雖然本季高於我們的季節性預期，但我們 1 月 1 日的定價反映了這些動態。

And we feel really good about returning back to our target margins for the block in 2025.

我們對 2025 年回到我們的目標利潤率感到非常高興。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then, I guess, for either Michel or John, on the VNB slide, can you just talk a little bit about what's driving the improvement in the IRR and the reduction in the payback period?

然後，我想，無論是米歇爾還是約翰，在 VNB 幻燈片上，您能談談推動 IRR 改善和投資回收期縮短的因素嗎？

And have you sort of back-tested these IRRs?

您對這些 IRR 進行過回測嗎？

Because I'm assuming they're sort of pricing IRRs.

因為我假設它們是按內部收益率定價的。

And so when you look at how these blocks have actually developed, are they pretty close to your pricing assumptions?

因此，當您查看這些區塊的實際開發情況時，它們是否非常接近您的定價假設？

Or can you just give us some color on that?

或者你能給我們一些顏色嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Thanks, Suneet.

謝謝，蘇尼特。

I'll start, and then I'll let John add some color as well.

我會開始，然後我也會讓約翰添加一些顏色。

So really pleased with the journey we've been on here in terms of -- one of our main pillars for Next Horizon was the focus pillar, which is allocating capital to its highest and best use.

我們對我們在這裡經歷的旅程感到非常滿意——我們「下一個地平線」的主要支柱之一是焦點支柱，即將資本分配到其最高和最佳用途。

And I think that's reflected in how we allocate capital in support of organic growth, of new business growth.

我認為這反映在我們如何分配資本來支持有機成長和新業務成長。

And if you think about sort of the trajectory we've been on here, think about group benefits, LatAm, two of our higher-return businesses, continuing to show really strong growth there.

如果你考慮我們在這裡所經歷的軌跡，想想集團利益，拉丁美洲，我們的兩個回報率較高的業務，在那裡繼續表現出真正強勁的成長。

So that's certainly a contributing factor.

所以這肯定是促成因素。

We're not getting 19%, I would say, across all of our businesses, but the fact that we have businesses with higher returns growing faster than some of the other businesses, that's certainly contributing to the VNB picture you see on our slide.

我想說，我們所有業務的成長率都沒有達到19%，但事實上，我們的業務回報率較高，且比其他一些業務增長得更快，這無疑對您在幻燈片上看到的VNB 情況做出了貢獻。

Yeah.

是的。

And Suneet, I think your -- it's a good question, the point around just back testing because as you said, this is -- these are IRRs on new business that we've priced based on our best estimate assumptions.

Suneet，我認為你的——這是一個很好的問題，重點是回溯測試，因為正如你所說，這是——這些是我們根據我們的最佳估計假設定價的新業務的 IRR。

And I think -- I have been thinking about that as well.

我想——我也一直在思考這個問題。

And I think there's a couple of things.

我認為有幾件事。

Certainly, the environment has been favorable here, right?

當然，這裡的環境很好，對吧？

I mean, in the case of -- if you just think about -- we've been in benign credit environment.

我的意思是，如果你想一想，我們一直處於良性的信用環境中。

Underwriting has generally been in line across our businesses, and interest rates have been favorable.

我們的業務承保總體上保持一致，而且利率也很優惠。

So all of those -- so I think the answer is yes, it's hard to be really precise, give or take, on all of those things.

所以所有這些——所以我認為答案是肯定的，在所有這些事情上很難做到真正精確，給予或接受。

But we think about -- we've asked the same question ourselves because, obviously, we're seeing the positive momentum here.

但我們想——我們自己也問過同樣的問題，因為顯然我們在這裡看到了積極的動力。

And I think, just thinking a little more about the positive momentum, like Michel said, mix of business is certainly a driver there in terms of our new business.

我認為，只要更多地考慮積極的勢頭，就像米歇爾所說的那樣，業務組合肯定是我們新業務的驅動力。

Two, I think the tool itself as a management tool has causes everyone to continue to refine things in terms of pricing, capital optimization, how you might use reinsurance.

第二，我認為該工具本身作為一種管理工具，促使每個人在定價、資本優化、如何使用再保險方面不斷改進。

We did get some favorable regulatory changes.

我們確實得到了一些有利的監管變化。

Like in Korea, for example, they've moved to an economic framework recently, typically favors up because we tend to follow an economic framework.

例如，就像在韓國一樣，他們最近轉向了經濟框架，通常會受到青睞，因為我們傾向於遵循經濟框架。

So that has ultimately given us a lot more excess capital there that will over time be redistributed up into the holding company.

因此，這最終給了我們更多的過剩資本，隨著時間的推移，這些資本將重新分配給控股公司。

And then I think the third thing is there's been a trend of unit cost improvement there.

我認為第三件事是單位成本有改善的趨勢。

So I think all of those factors give rise to why you see this kind of migration occurring.

所以我認為所有這些因素都會導致你看到這種遷移發生的原因。

And I think probably the biggest one is what Michel said, which is mix of business, you have high growth in -- certainly in some of our businesses that have had high IRRs from very low capital-intensive businesses like group and Latin America.

我認為最大的一個可能是米歇爾所說的，這是業務組合，你有高成長——當然是在我們的一些業務中，這些業務從集團和拉丁美洲等資本密集型業務中獲得了高內部報酬率。

So hopefully, it helps.

希望它能有所幫助。

It does.

確實如此。

If I could just throw in one quick follow-up.

如果我能快速跟進一下就好了。

These IRRs, I mean, I'm assuming they would give us a directional indication of where your ROE is headed given that they're unlevered returns?

我的意思是，我假設這些 IRR 會給我們一個方向性指示，說明您的 ROE 的走向，因為它們是無槓桿回報？

Yeah.

是的。

I mean, I think that should give a good indication in terms of direction of traffic here, especially if you consider that besides what we just mentioned, the fact that MetLife Holdings, which is a low-ROE business, is running off.

我的意思是，我認為這應該為這裡的流量方向提供一個很好的指示，特別是如果你考慮到除了我們剛才提到的之外，大都會人壽控股（MetLife Holdings）這一低股本回報率業務正在流失。

So all of these factors combined, I think, would point to a ROE trending upwards.

因此，我認為，所有這些因素結合起來，將表明股本回報率呈上升趨勢。

Got it.

知道了。

Makes sense.

有道理。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

吉米·布拉爾，摩根大通。

Good morning.

早安.

I had a couple of questions.

我有幾個問題。

One was just on Japan sales.

其中之一就是日本的銷售情況。

Should we assume that with the yen-dollar exchange rate moving around that Japan sales, especially dollar-denominated products, will stay weak in the near term?

我們是否應該假設，隨著日圓兌美元匯率的波動，日本的銷售，尤其是以美元計價的產品，短期內將保持疲軟？

Or are there other sort of products that you're thinking about that should help mitigate the impact?

或者您正在考慮其他類型的產品來幫助減輕影響？

And then secondly, on the portfolio, most of the metrics on your commercial real estate portfolio seems fairly stable with where they've been.

其次，在投資組合上，商業房地產投資組合的大多數指標似乎都相當穩定。

But what are you seeing overall in the market?

但您對市場的整體看法如何？

And do you think office and non-office, are they close to bottoming?

您認為辦公室和非辦公室是否已接近觸底？

And then there's been renewed concerns, I think, recently with the single asset, single borrower-type loans back in CMBS.

我認為，最近人們對 CMBS 中單一資產、單一借款人類型的貸款重新產生了擔憂。

And if you could just give some numbers on your exposure to those.

如果你能給一些關於你接觸這些的數字。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Great.

偉大的。

Jimmy, it's Lyndon here.

吉米，我是林登。

Let me take the Japan question.

我來回答日本問題。

So let's start with Japan sales, and I'll give you some color on overall Asia.

讓我們從日本的銷售開始，然後我將向您介紹整個亞洲的情況。

Look, Japan is an attractive market.

看來，日本是一個有吸引力的市場。

Look, we're seeing increasing interest rates as well as positive macro trends there.

看，我們看到利率上升以及積極的宏觀趨勢。

And what we are seeing is an overall environment for FX products that has become more competitive.

我們看到的是外匯產品的整體環境變得更具競爭力。

If you look at Japan sales, they were lower year-over-year in single premium FX products.

如果你看看日本的銷售情況，你會發現單一優質外匯產品的銷售額年減。

Now, a few reasons.

現在，有幾個原因。

We face a tough comparative against last year.

我們面臨著與去年的嚴峻比較。

Sales in '23 for the full year were up 14% year over year.

23 年全年銷售額年增 14%。

And then, as you said, while the yen has strengthened in the quarter, we do see continued volatility of FX markets, and that has impacted the sales of foreign currency products.

然後，正如您所說，雖然日圓在本季度走強，但我們確實看到外匯市場持續波動，這影響了外幣產品的銷售。

So essentially, what we're seeing are more customers staying on the sideline during these periods of FX volatility.

因此，從本質上講，我們看到更多的客戶在外匯波動期間保持觀望。

Japan sales for the third quarter sequentially were in line with where they were for the second quarter.

第三季日本銷售額與第二季持平。

Now, we do have a diversified portfolio.

現在，我們確實擁有多元化的投資組合。

We have both US dollar as well as yen products in Japan, and we continue to evolve this product portfolio to maintain competitiveness.

我們在日本擁有美元和日圓產品，並且我們不斷發展該產品組合以保持競爭力。

So we've introduced several new products.

因此，我們推出了幾種新產品。

We launched a refreshed yen-denominated variable life product.

我們推出了全新的日圓計價可變壽險產品。

We've launched a cancer product earlier this year.

我們今年稍早推出了一種抗癌產品。

Both products have performed very well.

這兩款產品都表現非常出色。

We've also launched a refreshed A&H medical product this month, and we're planning to launch a new US dollar life product early next year.

本月我們也推出了更新的 A&H 醫療產品，並計劃明年初推出新的美元壽險產品。

If we look at the rest of Asia, what we're seeing, our sales have gone up 9% year over year, and that's driven primarily from China and India.

如果我們看看亞洲其他地區，我們會發現我們的銷售額比去年同期成長了 9%，這主要來自中國和印度。

Solid performance in China, especially as we look across both our channels, bancassurance as well as agency.

在中國的表現穩健，特別是當我們審視我們的通路、銀行保險和代理商時。

And if you look in India, we've seen sales increase sharply there with strong growth across all our channels.

如果你看看印度，我們會發現那裡的銷售額急劇成長，我們所有通路都強勁成長。

As far as an outlook goes, look, year-to-date sales have been in line with the prior year, and we expect full-year sales for Asia to be close to flat year over year.

就前景而言，今年迄今的銷售額與去年持平，我們預計亞洲的全年銷售額將與去年同期持平。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Jimmy, I'll take your commercial mortgage comment or question.

吉米，我將接受您的商業抵押貸款評論或問題。

As you pointed out, I think despite the recent pressure, we've kind of commented on a few factors, right?

正如您所指出的，我認為儘管最近面臨壓力，我們還是對一些因素進行了評論，對吧？

There's been continued -- economic growth has been healthy.

經濟持續健康成長。

That has been good news for fundamentals of real estate.

這對房地產基本面來說是個好消息。

There's some modest trend towards in-office or even office has some kind of backdrop momentum here.

辦公室內有一些溫和的趨勢，甚至辦公室也有某種背景動力。

And overall, I think as you point out, we feel -- outside of office, we probably feel like we've kind of hit the trough, and we've probably seen a positive outlook.

總的來說，我認為正如你所指出的，我們覺得——在辦公室之外，我們可能覺得我們已經陷入了低谷，我們可能看到了積極的前景。

There's healthy fundamentals overall now for the economy.

目前經濟整體基本面良好。

You have like some at least expectation of some declining interest rates.

您至少對利率下降有一些預期。

Even steepening of the curve, I think, would be a positive here.

我認為，即使曲線變陡，也會是正面的。

You're starting to see increasing transaction activity.

您開始看到交易活動不斷增加。

Even us in this quarter, we probably -- I think we had five sales of real estate properties for a gain, about $120 million, $150 million of gain in the quarter.

即使是我們這個季度，我們也可能——我認為我們有五次房地產銷售獲得了收益，大約是 1.2 億美元，本季度收益 1.5 億美元。

So again, we're just starting to see more liquidity come back into the market.

再說一次，我們才剛開始看到更多的流動性回到市場。

So we think -- overall, there is a positive backdrop that's starting to emerge.

所以我們認為，總體而言，正面的背景正在開始出現。

I don't think we're out of it.

我不認為我們已經擺脫困境了。

We're not going to see kind of a V-shape recovery per se, but it certainly is setting up for a more positive 2025 environment.

我們本身不會看到 V 型復甦，但它肯定會為 2025 年更積極的環境奠定基礎。

I think you asked about single borrower.

我想你問的是單身借款人。

I don't have the exact number on CMBS, but it's relatively small.

我沒有 CMBS 的確切數字，但相對較小。

I think I'd just give you a few statistics.

我想我只想給你一些統計數據。

We have about $10 billion of CMBS.

我們擁有約 100 億美元的 CMBS。

And of that, over 80% or about 80% of that is rated AAA or AA. But the single borrower exposure is relatively small.

其中，超過 80% 或約 80% 的評級為 AAA 或 AA。但單一借款人的風險相對較小。

I just don't have that at my fingertips.

我只是手邊沒有這個。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Tom Gallagher, Evercore.

湯姆‧加拉格爾，《Evercore》。

Thanks.

謝謝。

First, just a follow-up on group benefits.

首先，只是對團體福利的追蹤。

The -- Ramy, I think you mentioned the -- there were certain nonmedical health products that were elevated in the quarter.

拉米，我想你提到過，某些非醫療保健產品在本季價格上漲。

What were those -- outside of dental, can you -- what risks are those?

那些是什麼——除了牙科之外，你能——那些風險是什麼？

Are those disability or something else?

這些是殘疾還是其他？

And is there a reason you would expect those to recover quickly or is there going to be some tail to those where you think those might remain elevated?

您是否有理由期望這些數據會迅速恢復，或者您認為這些數據可能會保持在較高水平，是否會出現一些尾隨？

And then also just on dental, how do you see that playing out?

然後就牙科而言，您認為效果如何？

Is there -- does it take a year in terms of the way the repricing works versus the margin or is it quicker than that?

就重新定價與利潤率的關係而言，是否需要一年的時間，還是比這更快？

Hey, Tom.

嘿，湯姆。

Thank you for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

So the one-timers were about 1 point in aggregate.

所以一次性分數總計約 1 分。

So think of them as -- the small items were about 1 point in aggregate.

因此，可以將它們視為——小項目總計約為 1 分。

So think of that as about $20 million post tax.

因此，稅後金額約為 2000 萬美元。

And I would largely characterize them as one-timers.

我在很大程度上將他們描述為一次性者。

So we've got some of -- small item on the reinsurance true-up, another item on timing of rate approvals.

因此，我們有一些關於再保險調整的小項目，另一個關於利率批准時間的項目。

So think of them as a collection of items that just all went against us in the quarter.

因此，請將它們視為本季度所有對我們不利的項目的集合。

Within the -- disability continues to perform very well for us, and we continue to see incidents in line with expectations.

在此期間，殘疾問題繼續對我們表現良好，我們繼續看到符合預期的事件。

We continue to see strong recoveries in that line of business.

我們繼續看到該業務領域的強勁復甦。

So that's a bit of a -- kind of some more color on those smaller items.

所以這有點像在那些較小的物品上添加更多顏色。

But in aggregate, I would say, largely think of them as onetime in nature.

但總的來說，我想說，很大程度上認為它們本質上是一次性的。

With dental, we have been putting rate increases in the books since the beginning of the year.

對於牙科，我們自今年年初以來就一直在帳面上增加費率。

And as and when business comes up for renewal, these rate increases kind of will go into place.

當業務需要更新時，這些費率上漲就會生效。

While we don't have complete visibility into 1/1, the visibility is pretty good at this point.

雖然我們無法完全了解 1/1，但此時的可見度相當不錯。

And from what we're seeing so far, we are going to be back to our margin for the full year '25.

從目前來看，我們將在 25 年全年恢復利潤率。

So this is not a multiyear issue.

所以這不是一個需要多年的問題。

We're kind of towards the end of that cycle, and 1/1 would have us back to our target margin.

我們正接近該週期的尾聲，1/1 將使我們回到目標利潤。

Got you, thanks.

明白了，謝謝。

And then just a question on risk transfer.

然後是關於風險轉移的問題。

A peer of yours recently said they looked into long-term care risk transfer, decided the pricing was too adverse, and they're moving on.

您的一位同行最近表示，他們研究了長期照護風險轉移，認為定價過於不利，因此他們正在繼續前進。

They're not going to pursue anything beyond that.

他們不會追求除此之外的任何東西。

Curious if you've looked into that market and if you have, your view of it, do you share that view that the pricing is too onerous or is that something you might want to pursue?

很好奇您是否調查過這個市場，如果您有的話，您對此有何看法？

Hey, Tom.

嘿，湯姆。

It's Ramy again here.

拉米又來了。

While I can't comment on the specific of any peer.

雖然我無法評論任何同行的具體情況。

We continue to see activity in that market, I would say, increased activity, in particular over the last 12 months.

我想說的是，我們繼續看到該市場的活動增加，特別是在過去 12 個月。

And I would say the bid-ask spreads are somewhat narrowing, which is, I think, encouraging as we think about our book and some of the bid-ask spreads that are out there.

我想說的是，買賣價差有所縮小，當我們考慮我們的書和現有的一些買賣價差時，我認為這是令人鼓舞的。

But as we've always said, our book is well capitalized, it's well managed.

但正如我們常說的，我們的書資本充足，管理良好。

It continues to perform in line with expectations.

它的表現繼續符合預期。

So we continue to assess risk transfer options.

因此，我們持續評估風險轉移方案。

Clearly, any deal needs to create long-term shareholder value.

顯然，任何交易都需要創造長期股東價值。

So price matters, structure matters here.

因此，價格很重要，結構也很重要。

But in general, I would say, active discussions and somewhat narrowing of bid-ask spreads there in terms of what we see.

但總的來說，我想說，就我們所看到的而言，討論活躍，買賣價差有所縮小。

Got you.

明白你了。

Thanks for that.

謝謝你。

Ryan Krueger, KBW.

瑞安·克魯格，KBW。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

I had a question on RIS spreads.

我有一個關於 RIS 點差的問題。

John, does your comment on the spreads stabilizing in the fourth quarter also translate into stable spreads in '25 as well based on the forward curve?

約翰，您對第四季利差穩定的評論是否也可以轉化為基於遠期曲線的 25 年利差穩定？

Hey, Ryan, good morning.

嘿，瑞安，早安。

Yeah, and just as -- just to kind of rehash what I said, right, we had we had a little bit more of a decline this quarter relative to what we had called out in the second quarter of 8 to 10 basis points on the core spreads, and it came in around 11.

是的，就像——只是為了重述我所說的，對，我們本季度的下降幅度比我們在第二季度所說的 8 到 10 個基點要多一些。 。

So I think a good reminder, which I didn't say in my opening remarks, is that in the second quarter, we said 8 to 10 would occur as well, and we came in under that.

因此，我認為一個很好的提醒（我在開場白中沒有提到）是，在第二季度，我們說也會發生 8 到 10 次，我們是在這個情況下進入的。

So a little bit of each of those quarters are a function of just what rates did in the quarter.

因此，每個季度都有一點點是該季度利率變化的函數。

And this quarter, we had we had some lower rates during the quarter.

本季度，我們的利率有所下降。

Although as everyone has seen, rates have ticked up, which gives us a little bit of the -- kind of optimism to being flat to up a few basis points come fourth quarter.

儘管正如每個人都看到的那樣，利率有所上升，這讓我們對第四季度的利率持平甚至上升幾個基點感到有點樂觀。

We'll give more color in the outlook call in February.

我們將在二月的展望電話會議中提供更多資訊。

I think that maybe the -- but I will say that we do feel like we've gotten to a more stable spread, maybe is the way I'd put it, but curve matters.

我認為也許 - 但我會說，我們確實感覺我們已經達到了更穩定的價差，也許是我所說的方式，但曲線很重要。

So that will be an aspect of what we do in our outlook.

因此，這將是我們展望中所做工作的一個面向。

So hesitant to kind of call it now.

所以現在有點猶豫要不要打電話。

I think we'll wait and see where the curve is, and also the sensitivities can change and things like that, very dependent upon kind of the outlook of the curve.

我認為我們將拭目以待，看看曲線在哪裡，敏感性也會發生變化，類似的事情，很大程度上取決於曲線的前景。

But all in all, we are seeing more stability now.

但總而言之，我們現在看到了更多的穩定性。

And so I think that's a fair assumption for now.

所以我認為目前這是一個合理的假設。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And then do you have any early insight into fourth-quarter variable investment income at this point?

那麼您現在對第四季可變投資收入有什麼初步了解嗎？

I wish I could say yes, but probably, I don't know if we have really good insights.

我希望我能說是，但也許，我不知道我們是否有真正好的見解。

I mean, look, at the end of the day, we probably have a view.

我的意思是，看，最終我們可能會有一個看法。

And I think the reality is that this portfolio in the sector of PE, they continue to adjust to higher rates and more volatile markets and a constrained set of exit options.

我認為現實情況是，私募股權領域的投資組合將繼續調整以適應更高的利率和更不穩定的市場以及一組有限的退出選擇。

That said, it was still positive returns this quarter.

儘管如此，本季仍實現正回報。

We also saw a positive rebound in the real estate and related funds there in the quarter, again, maybe referencing back to some of the comments I made earlier around kind of what we're seeing in real estate.

我們也看到本季房地產和相關基金的積極反彈，這可能再次參考了我之前就我們在房地產中看到的一些評論。

And I think the other thing that I did call out, I think it was at your conference possibly, is that we had another $600 million of distributions occur.

我認為我確實提到的另一件事，我想可能是在你們的會議上，是我們又進行了 6 億美元的分配。

So this is still giving a strong cash flow.

因此，這仍然帶來強勁的現金流。

I think performance has been good on a relative scale, I think, top -- kind of top half quartile -- top-half performance, maybe second-quartile performance.

我認為相對規模上的表現一直很好，我認為，頂部——上半部的表現——上半部的表現，也許是第二四分位數的表現。

In the quarter, when we went in and dug deep, we saw that there were probably a few one-off situations in certain funds in the quarter, where some of the funds had to mark a particular asset as opposed to broad marks across.

在本季度，當我們深入研究時，我們發現本季度某些基金可能存在一些一次性情況，其中一些基金必須標記特定資產，而不是廣泛標記。

We think that those are more one-off factors.

我們認為這些比較是一次性因素。

So if we were to normalize for them and use that as our proxy for the fourth quarter, you should think maybe total VII would be north of where we are today, maybe doesn't get us back to 2Q levels.

因此，如果我們對它們進行標準化並使用它作為第四季度的代理，您應該認為總 VII 可能會高於我們今天的水平，也許不會讓我們回到第二季度的水平。

So maybe you take the midpoint of those two as a good estimate for fourth quarter at this juncture.

因此，也許您此時可以將這兩者的中點作為第四季度的良好估計。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

亞歷克斯·斯科特，巴克萊銀行。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

I just wanted to come back to some of the comments on RIS and maybe even more broadly across the firm.

我只是想回顧一些關於 RIS 甚至整個公司的評論。

Could you talk about your sensitivity to interest rates?

您能談談您對利率的敏感度嗎？

Maybe help us think through what kind of floating rate allocation you have and the net of floating rate liabilities and so forth.

也許可以幫助我們思考您擁有什麼樣的浮動利率配置以及浮動利率負債的淨額等等。

And would be interested in RIS specifically.

並且對 RIS 特別感興趣。

The shape of the yield curve changing the way it has, is that a net positive, negative?

殖利率曲線的形狀改變了它的方式，是淨正還是負？

I just want to get a better feel for rate exposure.

我只是想更好地了解利率暴露。

Yeah.

是的。

Good morning, Alex.

早安，亞歷克斯。

It's John, and welcome back.

我是約翰，歡迎回來。

Yeah, just as a framing, generally, for our portfolio is -- a steeper curve is better.

是的，就像我們的投資組合的框架一樣——曲線越陡越好。

So we -- higher rates are better, steeper curve is better as well.

所以我們——利率越高越好，曲線越陡越好。

So I think that helps with maybe the direction of travel.

所以我認為這可能有助於確定旅行的方向。

In terms of like our floating rate assets to liabilities, we're pretty well matched.

就我們的浮動利率資產與負債而言，我們非常匹配。

Sometimes we have a little bit of floating rate assets in corporate and other, so that can be one place where you might see.

有時我們在企業和其他領域擁有一些浮動利率資產，因此這可能是您可能會看到的一個地方。

But ultimately, a lower short end of the curve is better for us, and that's just how we typically manage our collective portfolio.

但最終，曲線的短端較低對我們來說更好，這就是我們通常管理集體投資組合的方式。

So I think the outlook slides we provided back in February of this year in terms of just parallel shifts in the curve are probably still pretty good proxies for the impact to our firm.

因此，我認為我們在今年 2 月提供的前景幻燈片（僅就曲線的平行移動而言）可能仍然是對我們公司影響的很好的代表。

But in terms of shape of the curve, I can probably just give you directional commentary at this juncture.

但就曲線的形狀而言，我現在可能只能給你一個方向性的評論。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And as a follow-up, as we think through the strategies that's on the come here in December and thinking through the comments that it should provide further enhancement to returns, will that come more through revenue growth and growing some of the businesses with higher returns?

作為後續行動，當我們思考 12 月發布的策略並思考應該進一步提高回報的評論時，這是否會更多地透過收入成長和發展一些回報更高的業務來實現？

Or are there further levers that you can pull to take down that expense ratio and drive efficiency across the organization?

或者您可以採取進一步的手段來降低費用比率並提高整個組織的效率？

Yeah.

是的。

Hi, Alex.

嗨，亞歷克斯。

Yeah, I would say it's a combination of continuing to grow high-return businesses, continue with the same discipline that we've -- that's now sort of -- really sort of a muscle that's very strong in the organization, I would say, in terms of how we price, how we bring product to market.

是的，我想說，這是持續發展高回報業務的結合，繼續遵循我們現在所擁有的同樣的紀律，這確實是組織中非常強大的力量，我想說，就我們如何定價、如何將產品推向市場而言。

And then to the point that John made earlier, our unit cost also has been coming down.

正如約翰之前所說，我們的單位成本也一直在下降。

So that's another contributing factor there.

這是另一個影響因素。

So it's both of those things.

所以這兩件事都是如此。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Wilma Burdis, Raymond James.

威爾瑪·布爾迪斯，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Could you walk us through what you see as a more normalized run rate level of earnings for both group and RIS?

您能否向我們介紹一下您認為集團和 RIS 的更正常化的收益運行率水準？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

I think we -- Wilma, I just want to make sure we were able to hear that.

我想我們——威爾瑪，我只是想確保我們能夠聽到這一點。

You just said, could you walk through more normalized earnings for group and RIS?

您剛才說，您能否介紹一下集團和 RIS 的更正常化的收益？

Yes, sorry.

是的，抱歉。

No problem.

沒問題。

Okay.

好的。

I can just start at a high level, and then Ramy can add.

我可以從高水平開始，然後拉米可以補充。

I think, obviously, RIS has been impacted by the roll-off of our interest rate caps.

我認為，顯然，RIS 受到了利率上限下調的影響。

And I'd say -- we've provided some guidance on that actually in February, roughly 8 to 10 basis points a quarter.

我想說的是，我們實際上在 2 月就提供了一些指導，大約每季 8 到 10 個基點。

I would say, basically, hit that on the mark.

我想說，基本上，切中要害。

We were a little lower in that roll off and impact in the second quarter, a little higher than the third.

我們第二季的下滑和影響略低，略高於第三季。

Net-net, we probably ended where we expected.

Net-net，我們的結局大概就是我們所期望的。

And now we'll see -- we should see some stabilization in those levels for the fourth quarter and on.

現在我們會看到 - 我們應該會看到第四季度及以後這些水平會有所穩​​定。

And I think for RIS, you have to take into account VII, right?

我認為對於 RIS，你必須考慮 VII，對吧？

And if you think about our earnings this quarter, that's obviously a fairly large delta for us relative to what we think our underlying run rate is for the firm.

如果你考慮我們本季的收益，相對於我們認為公司的基本運作率而言，這顯然是一個相當大的增量。

I think for group, you have to be -- seasonality matters a lot.

我認為對於團體來說，季節性非常重要。

So it depends on what quarter we're talking about.

所以這取決於我們談論的是哪個季度。

But I think, as Ramy pointed out in some of his remarks, that we did have a few things that just went against us this quarter.

但我認為，正如拉米在他的一些言論中指出的那樣，本季我們確實有一些對我們不利的事情。

And I think that's the case also in Japan and others.

我認為日本和其他國家也是如此。

And it's just one of those things where we've got a few things that we don't expect to recur.

這只是我們預計不會再次發生的一些事情之一。

They just tend to all happen in one quarter, and they all were relatively small but added to some numbers that all went in one direction.

它們往往都在一個季度內發生，而且它們都相對較小，但增加了一些數字，所有這些都朝著一個方向發展。

So that's kind of how we probably see the quarter at this juncture.

這就是我們目前對本季的看法。

And I know you only said RIS and group, but I thought I'd give you a more holistic view of that.

我知道您只說了 RIS 和組，但我想我應該給您一個更全面的看法。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

And then just maybe related to an earlier question, but could you just talk about the economic environment that would be supportive of VII returning to more normal levels?

然後可能與先前的問題有關，但您能否談談支持 VII 恢復到更正常水平的經濟環境？

Sure.

當然。

I think -- as we were referencing earlier, certainly, higher interest rates have caused the sector to have to adjust, right?

我認為，正如我們之前提到的，利率上升肯定導致該行業必須進行調整，對嗎？

I mean it's been a sector that has benefited significantly from the lower-forever environment that no longer is forever.

我的意思是，這個行業從不再是永遠的低水平環境中獲益匪淺。

And so as rates have risen, things have -- firms have had to shift back to kind of the growth model and -- as opposed to just the leverage model.

因此，隨著利率上升，企業不得不轉向成長模式，而不僅僅是槓桿模式。

And I think that was a strategy; I don't think it was wrong.

我認為這是一種策略；我不認為這是錯的。

It was just it was.

就是這樣。

And so it's taking some time, coupled with the fact that the environment needs exit options and M&A or IPO activity, and that also has slowed a bit as a result of the broader macroenvironment.

因此，這需要一些時間，再加上環境需要退出選擇和併購或 IPO 活動，而且由於更廣泛的宏觀環境，這一速度也有所放緩。

So we think with the one-time, it's probably one factor that improves the sector.

因此，我們認為一次性可能是改善該行業的因素之一。

And the second is I think that as rates start to stabilize and probably the curve starts to stabilize more importantly, that will be kind of a positive aspect to support the sector.

第二，我認為隨著利率開始穩定，更重要的是曲線可能開始穩定，這將是支持該行業的積極方面。

Thank you.

謝謝。

John Barnidge, Piper Sandler.

約翰·巴尼奇，派珀·桑德勒。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

My question is on real estate.

我的問題是關於房地產的。

Given the improved positivity in directionality and given it's more of a cycle asset class than anything else, do you think the recovery could be more extended in what goes into VII on a normalized basis post real estate recovery actually could end up being larger on the real estate side?

鑑於方向性的積極性有所改善，並且考慮到它比其他任何資產類別都更像是一種週期資產類別，您是否認為在標準化的基礎上進入第七階段的復甦可能會更大，房地產復甦後實際上最終可能會比實際情況更大地產方面？

Thank you.

謝謝。

And John, just to make sure I have that, you're asking whether there could be a larger allocation as a result of maybe the outlook?

約翰，為了確保我明白這一點，你問是否可能因為前景而進行更大的分配？

Is that what you mean?

你是這個意思嗎？

No, not allocation.

不，不是分配。

Just as the contribution to real estate in the third quarter of overall VII was larger than it was in the prior counters, as that cycle turns, should we actually think of that actually being larger possibly on the other side, not allocation.

正如整個第七季第三季對房地產的貢獻大於先前的櫃檯一樣，隨著週期的轉變，我們實際上是否應該考慮到另一邊實際上可能更大，而不是分配。

I wouldn't -- got it.

我不會——明白了。

Okay.

好的。

I wouldn't -- I would -- I mean we've given some outlook -- in our outlook, we gave some views of returns for the asset classes.

我不會——我會——我的意思是我們已經給出了一些展望——在我們的展望中，我們給出了對資產類別回報的一些看法。

And obviously, they were predicated on a certain set of assumptions.

顯然，它們是基於一組特定的假設。

Not all those assumptions have come true, and they aren't -- and that's expected.

並非所有這些假設都實現了，而且也沒有實現——這是預期的。

I still think using that relative scaling, even if the returns kind of migrate up, is still a good concept.

我仍然認為使用相對縮放比例，即使回報有所上升，仍然是一個好概念。

And if you think about our real estate exposure in VII today, it's more in the, call it, core, core plus and maybe some bit of opportunistic.

如果你想想我們今天在 VII 中的房地產風險，你會發現它更多的是核心、核心加，也許還有一些機會主義。

So in terms of the expected return on those types of investments, you would think they're lower than what you would be expecting per se, a PE or a venture capital fund.

因此，就這些類型的投資的預期回報而言，您可能會認為它們低於您本身的預期（私募股權投資或創投基金）。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And then my other question, can you talk about the opportunity being opened up due to regulatory reform, not just in Korea but broadly in Asia?

然後我的另一個問題是，您能否談談監管改革帶來的機遇，不僅在韓國，而且在整個亞洲？

Could we be seeing more growth from those markets?

我們能否從這些市場看到更多成長？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

I think just my -- I'll just say quickly my comment on Korea, and I think you probably caught on to it, is we do tend to work better in a more economic framework because we tend to run our firm very much like that.

我想，我想快速地說一下我對韓國的評論，我想你可能已經明白了，我們確實傾向於在更經濟的框架中工作得更好，因為我們傾向於以這種方式經營我們的公司。

Obviously, you have to manage to the statutory constraints in any jurisdiction, and so you can't ignore them.

顯然，您必須遵守任何司法管轄區的法定限制，因此您不能忽視它們。

But we certainly spend a lot of time thinking about the economic nature of our business.

但我們確實花了很多時間思考我們業務的經濟性質。

And so we -- that's one thing we saw in Korea.

所以我們——這是我們在韓國看到的一件事。

And I'm not so sure it opens up the environment or for business outlook per se, but we certainly think it's more favorable for us and it avoids having to manage too many different constraints.

我不太確定它會打開環境或商業前景本身，但我們當然認為這對我們更有利，而且它避免了管理太多不同的限制。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Due to time constraints, we're going to have to cut the question-and-answer session short.

由於時間限制，我們將不得不縮短問答環節。

I will now turn the call back over to John Hall for closing remarks.

現在，我將把電話轉回給約翰·霍爾，讓他發表結束語。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, everybody, for joining us today.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。

Have a Happy Halloween, and we look forward to seeing you where we can on December 12.

萬聖節快樂，我們期待 12 月 12 日與您見面。

Bye.

再見。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The meeting has now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day.

感謝您的加入，祝您有個愉快的一天。