大都會人壽保險 (MET) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the MetLife Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Before we get started, I refer you to the cautionary note about forward-looking statements in yesterday's earnings release and to risk factors discussed in MetLife's SEC filings.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加大都會人壽 2023 年第三季財報發布電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。在我們開始之前，我請您參閱昨天收益發布中有關前瞻性陳述的警示說明以及大都會人壽向 SEC 提交的文件中討論的風險因素。

With that, I will now turn the call over to John Hall, Global Head of Investor Relations.

現在，我將把電話轉給投資者關係全球主管約翰霍爾 (John Hall)。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for MetLife's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Before we begin, I'd point you to the information on non-GAAP measures on the Investor Relations portion of metlife.com, in our earnings release and in our quarterly financial supplements, which you should review. On the call this morning are Michel Khalaf, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John McCallion, Chief Financial Officer. Also participating in the discussion are other members of senior management.

謝謝你，接線生。大家，早安。我們感謝您參加大都會人壽 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。在我們開始之前，我想向您介紹metlife.com 投資者關係部分、我們的收益發布和季度財務補充資料中有關非公認會計準則衡量標準的信息，您應該查看這些信息。今天早上接聽電話的是總裁兼執行長米歇爾·哈拉夫 (Michel Khalaf)；和財務長約翰·麥考利恩。其他高階主管也參加了討論。

Also, last night, we released a set of supplemental slides, which address the quarter. The slides are available on our website. John McCallion will speak to them in his prepared remarks if you wish to follow along. An appendix to the slides features GAAP reconciliations and other information, which you should similarly review. As usual, after prepared remarks, we will host a Q&A session. We will end Q&A just prior to the top of the hour. (Operator Instructions)

此外，昨晚，我們發布了一組補充幻燈片，涉及該季度。這些幻燈片可在我們的網站上找到。如果您願意的話，約翰·麥卡利恩將在他準備好的講話中與他們交談。投影片的附錄包含 GAAP 調節表和其他信息，您也應該同樣查看這些資訊。像往常一樣，在準備好發言後，我們將舉行問答環節。我們將在整點之前結束問答。 （操作員說明）

With that, over to Michel.

接下來，交給米歇爾。

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. As you can see from the report we posted last night, MetLife delivered another quarter of strong underlying results with sustained business momentum. MetLife's capacity to perform across a wide range of economic scenarios bears testament to the resilience of our all-weather strategy and is characterized by our unyielding focus on execution. And concentrating on those elements within our control, such as balance sheet security, investment performance, reserve adequacy, responsible growth, expense efficiency and capital deployment, to name just a few, we have positioned MetLife to generate significant value for our shareholders and other stakeholders for many years to come.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。正如您從我們昨晚發布的報告中看到的那樣，大都會人壽又一個季度實現了強勁的基本業績，業務勢頭持續強勁。大都會人壽在各種經濟情境中的表現能力證明了我們全天候策略的彈性，並以我們對執行的堅定關注為特徵。我們專注於我們控制範圍內的要素，例如資產負債表安全、投資績效、準備金充足性、負責任的成長、費用效率和資本配置等，我們將大都會人壽定位為為我們的股東和其他利益相關者創造巨大價值未來很多年。

Turning to the quarter. We reported adjusted earnings of $1.5 billion or $1.97 per share. Notable items in the quarter included our annual actuarial assumption review and other insurance adjustments, which had a positive impact of only $14 million or $0.02 per share on adjusted earnings. Excluding notable items, adjusted earnings per share were $1.95, up 43% from a year ago. As we previously indicated, variable investment income of $179 million fell below our quarterly outlook expectation. Private equity returns totaled 1.4%, while real estate equity risk trailed at minus 3%.

轉向季度。我們公佈的調整後收益為 15 億美元，即每股 1.97 美元。本季值得注意的項目包括我們的年度精算假設審查和其他保險調整，這對調整後收益僅產生了 1,400 萬美元或每股 0.02 美元的正面影響。不包括顯著項目，調整後每股收益為 1.95 美元，比去年同期成長 43%。正如我們之前指出的，可變投資收益為 1.79 億美元，低於我們的季度前景預期。私募股權回報率為 1.4%，而房地產股權風險則為負 3%。

In the aggregate, net income for the third quarter was $422 million compared to $1.1 billion in the prior year period. The third quarter result reflects the negative impact of certain required accounting adjustments associated with our previously announced reinsurance transaction. Net derivative losses related to interest rate and foreign exchange hedges helped to protect our balance sheet, further reduce net income. Our investment portfolio has stayed up in quality and continues to perform well. Underscoring that quality, the credit metrics associated with our real estate portfolio remain largely unchanged sequentially, and we did not incur material credit losses during the third quarter.

整體而言，第三季淨利為 4.22 億美元，而去年同期淨利為 11 億美元。第三季業績反映了與我們先前宣布的再保險交易相關的某些所需會計調整的負面影響。與利率和外匯對沖相關的淨衍生性商品損失有助於保護我們的資產負債表，進一步減少淨利潤。我們的投資組合一直保持著高品質並繼續表現良好。與我們的房地產投資組合相關的信貸指標基本上保持不變，而且我們在第三季沒有遭受重大信貸損失，這突顯了這種品質。

Moving to MetLife's business performance in the quarter. I will start with our U.S. Group Benefits results. Adjusted earnings, excluding notable items, totaled $483 million, an all-time high and up 16% from a year ago. Underwriting results in the quarter for both Group Life and Non-Medical Health were outstanding. Year-to-date sales are up 11%, while adjusted PFOs are up more than 4% in the quarter, reflecting the impact of our contracts and within our 4% to 6% outlook range, which we expect to achieve for the full year.

接下來看大都會人壽本季的業務表現。我將從我們的美國團體福利結果開始。不計重要項目的調整後收益總計 4.83 億美元，創歷史新高，較上年同期成長 16%。本季團體人壽和非醫療健康的核保業績均表現優異。年初至今的銷售額成長了 11%，而本季調整後的 PFO 成長了 4% 以上，反映了我們合約的影響，並且在我們預計全年將實現的 4% 至 6% 的前景範圍內。

In Group Benefits, we have invested significantly to integrate with the employer benefits ecosystem and enhance our enrollment capabilities and, perhaps more important, our reenrollment capabilities. With a significant portion of our overall sales in Group Benefits coming from employee paid products, our efforts to enhance enrollment and take-up rates are critical. Speaking of enrollment, we are about to enter open enrollment season. This is an important opportunity to review our employee benefit needs and refresh selections for the upcoming year, something I encourage all of you to do. Several of the investments that I referenced aim to make this process easier for participants.

在團體福利方面，我們投入了大量資金來與雇主福利生態系統整合，並增強我們的註冊能力，也許更重要的是，我們的重新註冊能力。由於我們集團福利整體銷售額的很大一部分來自員工付費產品，因此我們提高入學率和使用率的努力至關重要。說到招生，我們即將進入公開招生季。這是一個重要的機會來審查我們的員工福利需求並更新來年的選擇，我鼓勵你們所有人都這樣做。我提到的幾項投資旨在讓參與者更輕鬆地完成這個過程。

Further, we are activating emerging technologies that will help accelerate some of our group benefits initiatives, particularly around underwriting, claims and the customer experience. We believe the impact of these investments will enable us, over time, to further leverage our size to drive greater scale advantage.

此外，我們正在啟動新興技術，這將有助於加快我們的一些集團福利計劃，特別是在核保、索賠和客戶體驗方面。我們相信，隨著時間的推移，這些投資的影響將使我們能夠進一步利用我們的規模來推動更大的規模優勢。

Looking to Retirement and Income Solutions, or RIS. Adjusted earnings, excluding notable items, totaled $409 million, up 60% from the prior year, driven by higher recurring interest margins, better variable investment income and higher asset balances. Sales in the quarter were very strong across a range of products, including pension risk transfer with roughly $1.5 billion booked as well as structured settlements and U.K. longevity reinsurance. We are poised to generate close to $3 billion or more of sales in each of these 2 high-return product categories for the full year.

尋找退休和收入解決方案（RIS）。調整後收益（不包括重要項目）總計 4.09 億美元，比上年增長 60%，這主要得益於更高的經常性利差、更好的可變投資收入和更高的資產餘額。本季一系列產品的銷售都非常強勁，包括預訂了約 15 億美元的退休金風險轉移以及結構性結算和英國長壽再保險。我們預計全年這兩個高回報產品類別的銷售額將接近 30 億美元或更多。

Just after the close of the third quarter, we released our 2023 pension risk transfer poll, an example of our thought leadership in the space, which we have been publishing for the past 8 years. The poll, which serve plan sponsors with derisking goals, revealed several important observations relevant to the growth prospect for the PRT market. Let me offer some examples.

第三季結束後，我們發布了 2023 年退休金風險轉移調查，這是我們在該領域的思想領導力的一個例子，我們在過去 8 年裡一直在發布該調查。這項民意調查為計劃發起人提供了降低風險的目標，揭示了與 PRT 市場成長前景相關的幾個重要觀察結果。讓我舉一些例子。

Following record PRT sales in 2022, market activity is expected to remain strong for the foreseeable future. Among companies who plan to derisk, 9 of 10 companies plan to completely divest all their defined benefit pension plan liabilities. And finally, 85% of plan sponsors expressed concern over missing an attractive window to secure an annuity buyout at competitive rates. These findings confirm what I have said before. We should continue to see a strong pipeline for our pension risk transfer business.

繼 2022 年 PRT 銷售創紀錄之後，預計市場活動在可預見的未來將保持強勁。在計劃降低風險的公司中，10 家公司中有 9 家計劃完全剝離所有固定福利退休金計劃負債。最後，85% 的計劃發起人表示擔心錯過一個有吸引力的窗口，以有競爭力的價格獲得年金買斷。這些發現證實了我之前所說的。我們應該繼續看到我們的退休金風險轉移業務有強大的管道。

Now shifting over to Asia. Adjusted earnings, excluding notable items, of $369 million were 23% above a year ago on better variable investment income. Sales in the region on a constant currency basis were up 5%, led by life insurance in Japan and Korea. For Latin America, adjusted earnings, excluding notable items, totaled $199 million. Further, Latin America posted healthy 16% gains in both sales and adjusted PFOs on a constant currency basis.

現在轉移到亞洲。由於可變投資收入有所改善，調整後收益（不包括重要項目）為 3.69 億美元，較上年同期成長 23%。該地區以固定匯率計算的銷售額成長了 5%，其中日本和韓國的人壽保險銷售額成長最快。拉丁美洲地區的調整後收益（不包括重要項目）總計 1.99 億美元。此外，以固定匯率計算，拉丁美洲的銷售額和調整後的 PFO 均實現了 16% 的健康成長。

Our digital initiatives don't stop at the U.S. border. They extend around the world. For instance, in Latin America we launched a digital platform that seamlessly integrates insurance solutions into the customer journeys of our LatAm business partners, such as banks, financial institutions, retailers and others, which we expect will lead to even more responsible growth in the region over time.

我們的數位措施不止於美國邊境。它們遍布世界各地。例如，在拉丁美洲，我們推出了一個數位平台，將保險解決方案無縫整合到銀行、金融機構、零售商等拉丁美洲業務合作夥伴的客戶旅程中，我們預計這將導致該地區更加負責任的成長隨著時間的推移。

Expanding on the subject of responsible growth. In the third quarter, we released our value of new business, or VNB, statistics for the full year 2022. And the results are powerful. To summarize, MetLife deployed roughly $3.7 billion of capital to support the origination of new business in 2022. This capital was put to work at an average internal rate of return of 17%, with an expected payback period of approximately 6 years. The value of new business generated in 2022 is around $2.3 billion, which represents the net present value of distributable cash flows in excess of the hurdle rate.

擴大負責任成長的主題。第三季度，我們發布了 2022 年全年新業務價值 (VNB) 統計數據。結果非常強大。總而言之，大都會人壽部署了約 37 億美元的資本來支持 2022 年新業務的開展。這筆資本的平均內部收益率為 17%，預計投資回收期約為 6 年。 2022 年產生的新業務價值約為 23 億美元，這代表了超過最低門檻的可分配現金流的淨現值。

When we reference terms of MetLife like responsible growth and disciplined capital deployment, their application in our business is grounded in the systematic use of VNB. It is hard to overestimate the positive impact this analytical tool has had in managing our business starting with the deeply embedded practice of using IRRs and product pricing and ending with the establishment of business unit-level VNB goals and targets. Simply put, VNB guides our effort to target and prioritize capital-efficient and shorter-payback business and measure our progress and success in doing so.

當我們引用大都會人壽的術語（例如負責任的成長和嚴格的資本部署）時，它們在我們業務中的應用是基於 VNB 的系統使用。很難高估該分析工具在管理我們的業務方面所產生的正面影響，從使用 IRR 和產品定價的深入實踐開始，到建立業務部門層級的 VNB 目標和目標。簡而言之，VNB 指導我們努力瞄準和優先考慮資本效率高、回報期較短的業務，並衡量我們在這方面的進展和成功。

Over time, we've sought to maintain the right balance of capital deployment across organic growth, acquisitions and share repurchase to drive value for shareholders. While we bought back $11.1 billion of our shares and executed $2 billion of acquisitions from 2019 to 2022, we similarly deployed $13.5 billion to support responsible growth over the same period.

隨著時間的推移，我們一直力求在有機成長、收購和股票回購之間保持資本配置的適當平衡，從而為股東創造價值。雖然我們從 2019 年到 2022 年回購了 111 億美元的股票並執行了 20 億美元的收購，但我們同樣部署了 135 億美元來支持同期的負責任成長。

Moving to quarterly capital and cash. MetLife remained active with capital management during the third quarter. We paid about $400 million of common stock dividends to shareholders, and we repurchased nearly $800 million of our common stock. In addition to our activity in the third quarter, we repurchased roughly another $250 million of our common stock during the month of October. Year-to-date through October, we have repurchased about $2.5 billion of our common shares, and there is approximately $2.7 billion remaining on our repurchase authorization. At the end of the quarter, we had $4.9 billion of cash at our holding companies, which is above the top end of the $3 billion to $4 billion liquidity buffer we maintain.

轉向季度資本和現金。大都會人壽第三季的資本管理依然活躍。我們向股東支付了約 4 億美元的普通股股息，並回購了近 8 億美元的普通股。除了第三季的活動之外，我們還在 10 月回購了約 2.5 億美元的普通股。年初至今，截至 10 月份，我們已回購了約 25 億美元的普通股，回購授權尚剩餘約 27 億美元。截至本季末，我們的控股公司擁有 49 億美元現金，高於我們維持的 30 億至 40 億美元流動性緩衝的上限。

Before I close, let me provide a quick update on our pending reinsurance transaction with Global Atlantic. At this juncture, we have received all necessary regulatory approvals, and we expect to close in short order. We do not anticipate any material changes to the terms announced in May.

在結束之前，讓我快速介紹一下我們與 Global Atlantic 懸而未決的再保險交易的最新情況。目前，我們已獲得所有必要的監管批准，預計將在短期內完成。我們預計 5 月宣布的條款不會有任何重大變化。

In closing, we hosted a strategy session with our Board of Directors during the first week of October. This recurring annual meeting presents us with an opportunity to pressure test our strategy and to assess progress made toward our Next Horizon investor commitments. On that front, we are on track to exceed each commitment made at our December 2019 Investor Day, and I am confident we will continue to deliver for our shareholders and other stakeholders.

最後，我們在 10 月的第一周與董事會舉辦了一次策略會議。這次定期舉行的年度會議為我們提供了一個機會，對我們的策略進行壓力測試，並評估我們在實現 Next Horizo​​n 投資者承諾方面取得的進展。在這方面，我們預計將超越 2019 年 12 月投資者日所做的每項承諾，我相信我們將繼續為股東和其他利害關係人提供服務。

Now I'll turn it over to John to cover our performance in greater detail.

現在我將把它交給約翰來更詳細地介紹我們的表現。

Thank you, Michel, and good morning. I will start with the 3Q '23 supplemental slides, which provide highlights of our financial performance, including details of our annual global actuarial assumption review. In addition, I'll provide updates on our value of new business metrics, our liquidity and capital positions as well as our commercial mortgage loan portfolio.

謝謝你，米歇爾，早安。我將從 23 年第三季的補充幻燈片開始，其中重點介紹了我們的財務業績，包括我們年度全球精算假設審查的詳細資訊。此外，我還將提供有關新業務指標價值、流動性和資本狀況以及商業抵押貸款組合的最新資訊。

Starting on Page 3. We provide a comparison of net income to adjusted earnings in the third quarter. Net investment losses include the mark-to-market impact on securities that are expected to be transferred with the pending reinsurance transaction with Global Atlantic that we announced at the end of May. For GAAP purposes, any increase in gross unrealized losses on these securities are required to be realized through net income until we close the transaction. Also, we had net investment losses from our normal trading activity in the portfolio given the rising interest rate environment.

從第 3 頁開始。我們提供了第三季淨利與調整後收益的比較。淨投資損失包括以市價計價對證券的影響，這些證券預計將隨著我們 5 月底宣布的與 Global Atlantic 的未決再保險交易而轉移。出於公認會計準則的目的，這些證券的未實現總損失的任何增加都需要透過淨利潤實現，直到我們完成交易。此外，鑑於利率上升的環境，我們在投資組合中的正常交易活動中出現了淨投資損失。

In addition, we had net derivative losses due to higher interest rates and strengthening of the U.S. dollar versus multiple currencies, primarily the Chilean peso and yen. That said, net derivative losses were partially offset this quarter by market risk benefit, or MRB, remeasurement gains due to higher interest rates.

此外，由於利率上升和美元兌多種貨幣（主要是智利比索和日圓）走強，我們出現了衍生性商品淨損失。也就是說，本季的淨衍生性商品損失被市場風險收益（MRB）以及利率上升導致的重新計量收益所部分抵銷。

Overall, the portfolio remains well positioned. Credit losses continued to be modest and the hedging program performed as expected. The table on Page 4 provides highlights of our annual actuarial assumption review and other insurance adjustments with a breakdown of the adjusted earnings and net income impact by business.

整體而言，投資組合仍處於有利位置。信貸損失持續保持溫和，對沖計劃的表現符合預期。第 4 頁的表格重點介紹了我們的年度精算假設審查和其他保險調整，並詳細介紹了調整後收益和按業務劃分的淨利潤影響。

Overall, the impact to adjusted earnings and net income was negligible. In Group Benefits, we had a favorable impact from assumption changes in individual disability, primarily due to lower incident rates and favorable recoveries. In Retirement and Income Solutions, or RIS, we lowered our near-term assumption for mortality improvement, which resulted in an economic benefit given the longevity products in this business. In Asia, the net unfavorable impact was due to lapse rate changes across life and accident and health products in Japan as well as lowering lapse rates and expected fund returns for variable life products in Korea.

整體而言，對調整後收益和淨利的影響可以忽略不計。在團體福利方面，我們因個人殘疾假設的變化而產生了有利的影響，這主要是由於較低的事故發生率和良好的恢復。在退休和收入解決方案（RIS）中，我們降低了對死亡率改善的近期假設，鑑於該業務中的長壽產品，這帶來了經濟效益。在亞洲，淨不利影響是由於日本壽險、意外險和健康產品的失效率變化以及韓國可變壽險產品失效率和預期基金回報率的降低。

On Page 5, you can see the third quarter year-over-year comparison of adjusted earnings by segment, excluding notable items associated with the annual assumption review and other insurance adjustments in both periods. Adjusted earnings were $1.5 billion, up 35% and 33% on a constant currency basis. The primary drivers were higher variable investment income, or VII, strong recurring interest margins and favorable underwriting margins. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.95, up 43% and 40% on a constant currency basis.

在第 5 頁，您可以看到按部門劃分的第三季調整後收益的同比比較，不包括與兩個時期的年度假設審查和其他保險調整相關的顯著項目。調整後收益為 15 億美元，以固定匯率計算分別成長 35% 和 33%。主要驅動因素是較高的可變投資收入（VII）、強勁的經常性利差和有利的承保利潤。調整後每股收益為 1.95 美元，以固定匯率計算分別成長 43% 和 40%。

Moving to the businesses, starting with the U.S. Group Benefits adjusted earnings were $483 million, up 16% versus the prior year period. The key drivers were favorable underwriting margins and solid volume growth.

轉向業務方面，首先是美國集團福利調整後收益為 4.83 億美元，比去年同期成長 16%。主要驅動因素是有利的承保利潤率和穩健的銷售成長。

The Group Life mortality ratio was 83.6%, favorable to the prior year quarter of 85.7% and below the bottom end of our annual target range of 85% to 90%. As a reminder, mortality results tend to be more favorable in the third quarter, so we would expect our Group Life ratio to be back within the 85% to 90% range in the fourth quarter and full year of 2023.

團體壽險死亡率為 83.6%，優於去年同期的 85.7%，低於我們年度目標範圍 85% 至 90% 的下限。提醒一下，第三季的死亡率結果往往更為有利，因此我們預計我們的團體壽險比率將在 2023 年第四季和全年恢復到 85% 至 90% 的範圍內。

Regarding Non-Medical Health, the interest adjusted benefit ratio was 69% in the quarter or 70.4%, excluding the favorable impact related to the annual assumption review that I mentioned earlier, and at the low end of its annual target range of 70% to 75%.

關於非醫療健康，本季度利率調整後的福利比率為 69%，即 70.4%，排除我之前提到的與年度假設審查相關的有利影響，處於其年度目標範圍 70% 至 70% 的下限。75 %。

Turning to the top line. Group Benefits adjusted PFOs were up 3% year-over-year. Taking participating contracts into account, which dampened growth by roughly 1%, the underlying PFOs were up approximately 4% year-over-year, primarily due to solid growth across most products, including continued strong momentum in voluntary, and was within our 2023 target growth range of 4% to 6%. In addition, Group Benefit sales were up 11% year-to-date, driven by strong growth across most products and markets.

轉向頂行。集團福利調整後的 PFO 年成長 3%。考慮到分紅合約（抑製成長約 1%），基本 PFO 同比增長約 4%，這主要是由於大多數產品的穩健增長，包括自願的持續強勁勢頭，並且在我們的 2023 年目標之內增長幅度為4%至6%。此外，受大多數產品和市場強勁成長的推動，今年迄今為止，Group Benefit 銷售額成長了 11%。

RIS adjusted earnings were $409 million, up 60% year-over-year. The primary driver was favorable investment margins due to higher recurring interest and variable investment income. Solid volume growth year-over-year also contributed to the strong performance. RIS investment spreads were 130 basis points. Spreads, excluding VII, were 138 basis points, up 26 points versus Q3 of '22, primarily due to higher interest rates as well as income from in-the-money interest rate caps. RIS adjusted PFOs, excluding pension risk transfers, were up 75%, primarily driven by strong sales of structured settlement products, growth in U.K. longevity reinsurance and postretirement benefits. With regards to PRT, we added transactions worth approximately $1.5 billion in Q3 of '23, bringing our year-to-date total to roughly $3.5 billion.

RIS 調整後收益為 4.09 億美元，年增 60%。主要驅動力是由於較高的經常性利息和可變投資收入而帶來的有利的投資利潤。銷量的年比穩健成長也促成了強勁的業績。 RIS投資利差為130個基點。利差（不包括 VII）為 138 個基點，比 22 年第三季上升 26 個基點，主要是由於利率上升以及實值利率上限的收入。 RIS 調整後的 PFO（不包括退休金風險轉移）成長了 75%，這主要是由於結構性結算產品的強勁銷售、英國長壽再保險和退休後福利的成長所推動的。關於 PRT，我們在 23 年第三季增加了價值約 15 億美元的交易，使我們今年迄今的交易總額達到約 35 億美元。

Moving to Asia. Adjusted earnings were $369 million, up 23% and 25% on a constant currency basis, primarily due to higher investment margins. Asia's key growth metrics were solid as general account assets under management on an amortized cost basis as well as sales both grew 5% year-over-year on a constant currency basis, driven by growth across most of the region.

搬到亞洲。調整後收益為 3.69 億美元，以固定匯率計算分別成長 23% 和 25%，主要是由於投資利潤率提高。亞洲的主要成長指標穩健，以攤銷成本計算的普通帳戶資產以及以固定匯率計算的銷售額年增 5%，這主要得益於該地區大部分地區的成長。

In Japan, sales on a constant currency basis were up 3% year-over-year, driven by strong life sales due to the ongoing momentum of a single premium FX Life product that was relaunched April 1 of this year. In other Asia, sales on a constant currency basis were up 8% year-over-year, primarily driven by strong life sales in Korea in advance of a prospective regulatory change that took place on September 1 that impacts low cash value whole life products. Looking ahead, while we anticipate Asia year-over-year sales will decline in the fourth quarter, we expect full year 2023 sales growth to be at the top end or exceed our annual guidance range of mid to high single digits.

在日本，由於今年 4 月 1 日重新推出的單一保費 FX Life 產品的持續成長勢頭，強勁的壽險銷售推動了以固定匯率計算的銷售額年增 3%。在亞洲其他地區，以固定匯率計算的銷售額年增 8%，這主要是由於 9 月 1 日發生的預期監管變化影響了低現金價值終身壽險產品之前，韓國壽險銷售的強勁推動。展望未來，雖然我們預計第四季度亞洲同比銷售額將下降，但我們預計 2023 年全年銷售額增長將達到上限或超過我們中高個位數的年度指導範圍。

Latin America adjusted earnings were $199 million, up 26% and 8% on a constant currency basis, primarily due to solid volume growth and favorable underwriting margins. Latin America's top line continues to perform well as adjusted PFOs were up 32% and 16% on a constant currency basis. And sales were also up 16% on a constant currency basis, driven by strong growth in Mexico and Chile and solid persistency across the region.

拉丁美洲調整後收益為 1.99 億美元，以固定匯率計算分別成長 26% 和 8%，主要得益於穩健的銷售成長和有利的承保利潤。拉丁美洲的營收持續表現良好，調整後的 PFO 以固定匯率計算分別成長 32% 和 16%。在墨西哥和智利的強勁成長以及整個地區的持續穩定成長的推動下，以固定匯率計算銷售額也成長了 16%。

EMEA adjusted earnings were $70 million, up 43% and 40% on a constant currency basis, primarily due to higher volume growth, recurring interest margins as well as underwriting margins running favorable to expectations. This was partially offset by less favorable expense margins year-over-year. EMEA adjusted PFOs were up 9% on both a reported and constant currency basis. And sales were up 20% on a constant currency basis, reflecting strong growth across the region.

歐洲、中東和非洲地區調整後收益為 7,000 萬美元，以固定匯率計算分別成長 43% 和 40%，這主要是由於銷量成長加快、經常性利差以及承保利潤率均符合預期。這被同比不太有利的費用利潤率部分抵消。歐洲、中東和非洲地區調整後的 PFO 按報告匯率和固定匯率計算均成長 9%。以固定匯率計算，銷售額成長了 20%，反映出整個地區的強勁成長。

MetLife Holdings adjusted earnings were $206 million, up 23%, primarily driven by higher variable investment income. Corporate and other adjusted loss was $262 million compared to an adjusted loss of $258 million in the prior year quarter. Higher expenses, including interest on incremental debt, were partially offset by higher net investment income. The company's effective tax rate on adjusted earnings in the quarter was approximately 23% and within our 2023 guidance of 22% to 24%.

大都會人壽控股 (MetLife Holdings) 調整後獲利為 2.06 億美元，成長 23%，主要是由於可變投資收入增加。公司及其他調整後虧損為 2.62 億美元，去年同期調整後虧損為 2.58 億美元。較高的支出（包括增量債務利息）被較高的淨投資收入部分抵銷。該公司本季調整後收益的有效稅率約為 23%，在我們 2023 年 22% 至 24% 的指導範圍內。

On Page 6, this chart reflects our pretax variable investment income for the prior 5 quarters, including $179 million in Q3 of '23. The private equity portfolio of $14.9 billion had a plus 1.4% return in the quarter. Real estate equity funds of $2.2 billion had a minus 3% return. As of now, we anticipate PE returns to remain consistent with the second and third quarter with a modest improvement in real estate funds in the fourth quarter. Therefore, VII would more closely resemble second quarter results.

在第 6 頁上，此圖表反映了我們前 5 個季度的稅前可變投資收入，其中包括 23 年第三季的 1.79 億美元。 149 億美元的私募股權投資組合本季的報酬率為 1.4%。 22 億美元的房地產股票基金的報酬率為-3%。截至目前，我們預計 PE 回報率將與第二季和第三季保持一致，第四季房地產基金將略有改善。因此，VII 更接近第二季的結果。

On Page 7, we provide VII post tax by segment for the prior 5 quarters. As we have noted previously, each of the businesses hold its own discrete investment portfolios, which have been built to match its liabilities. As reflected in the chart, Asia RIS and MetLife Holdings continue to hold the largest proportion of VII assets given their long-dated liability profile, while Corporate and Other continues to hold higher VII assets than historical levels.

在第 7 頁，我們按部門提供了前 5 個季度的 VII 稅後數據。正如我們之前所指出的，每個企業都擁有自己的離散投資組合，這些投資組合是為了與其負債相符而建立的。如圖所示，考慮到長期負債情況，亞洲 RIS 和大都會人壽控股公司繼續持有最大比例的 VII 資產，而企業和其他公司繼續持有高於歷史水平的 VII 資產。

Now turning to Page 8. The chart on the left of the page shows the split of our net investment income between recurring and VII for the past 3 years and Q3 of '22 versus Q3 of '23. While VII has had lower than trend returns over the last few quarters, recurring income, which accounts for approximately 96% of net investment income, was up approximately $700 million year-over-year, reflecting higher interest rates and growth in asset balances.

現在翻到第 8 頁。該頁左側的圖表顯示了過去 3 年以及 22 年第 3 季與 23 年第 3 季的經常性淨投資收入和 VII 淨投資收入之間的分配情況。雖然過去幾季 VII 的回報率低於趨勢水平，但佔淨投資收入約 96% 的經常性收入年增約 7 億美元，反映出利率上升和資產餘額成長。

Shifting your attention to the right of the page, which shows our new money yield versus roll-off yield over the past 3 years. New money yields continue to outpace roll-off yields in the recent quarters. In this quarter, our global new money yield continued its upward trajectory, coming in at 6.26%, 156 basis points higher than the roll-off yield. We expect this favorable trend to continue assuming interest rates remain near current levels.

將您的注意力轉移到頁面右側，其中顯示了過去 3 年我們的新資金收益率與滾存收益率。最近幾個季度，新貨幣收益率持續超過滾存收益率。本季度，我們的全球新貨幣收益率持續上升，達到 6.26%，比滾存收益率高 156 個基點。我們預計，假設利率保持在當前水準附近，這種有利趨勢將持續下去。

Turning to Page 9. I'll provide a few updates on our commercial mortgage loans. First, let me say that we are pleased with the commercial mortgage loan, or CML portfolio, which continues to perform as expected. As we have noted last quarter, our real estate team updated all U.S. office valuations through June 30, assuming a 25% peak to trough valuation decline. In this quarter, the team shifted its effort to revaluing other CML asset classes, which have not been under the pressure seen in the office sector.

翻到第 9 頁。我將提供一些有關我們的商業抵押貸款的最新資訊。首先，我要說的是，我們對商業抵押貸款（CML 投資組合）感到滿意，該投資組合繼續按預期表現。正如我們上季度所指出的，我們的房地產團隊更新了截至 6 月 30 日的所有美國辦公室估值，假設估值從高峰到谷值下降 25%。在本季度，該團隊將工作重點轉向了其他 CML 資產類別的重新估值，這些資產類別並未受到辦公大樓領域的壓力。

Not surprisingly, the average LTV increased only slightly as a result with our CML portfolio now at an average LTV of 63%, up from 62% in the second quarter of '23, and an average debt service coverage ratio of 2.3x, which represents no change versus 2Q '23. The modest increase in LTVs and stable debt service coverage rate are further indicators of the disciplined approach we take to investing in this asset class. The quality of our CML portfolio remains strong with only 1.6% of loans having LTVs more than 80% and DSCRs less than 1x.

毫不奇怪，平均 LTV 僅略有增加，我們的 CML 投資組合現在平均 LTV 為 63%，高於 2023 年第二季的 62%，平均償債覆蓋率為 2.3 倍，這代表與2023 年第二季度相比沒有變化。貸款價值的小幅增長和穩定的償債覆蓋率進一步表明我們在投資這一資產類別時採取了嚴格的方法。我們的 CML 投資組合品質依然強勁，只有 1.6% 的貸款 LTV 超過 80%，DSCR 低於 1 倍。

With regards to CML loan maturities, we now have successfully resolved almost 90% of the portfolio scheduled to mature in 2023, and our expectation remains for minimal losses on the portfolio. Our CML portfolio scheduled maturities over the next 3 years are very manageable: 10% in 2024, 13% in 2025 and 16% in 2026.

關於 CML 貸款到期，我們現在已經成功解決了計劃於 2023 年到期的投資組合的近 90%，我們仍然期望投資組合的損失最小化。我們的 CML 投資組合未來 3 年的計畫到期日非常易於管理：2024 年為 10%，2025 年為 13%，2026 年為 16%。

Now let's switch gears to discuss expenses on Page 10. This chart shows a comparison of our direct expense ratio for the full year of '22 as well as the first 3 quarters of '23. In Q3 of '23, the ratio was 12.3%. As we have highlighted previously, we believe our full year direct expense ratio is the best way to measure performance due to fluctuations in quarterly results. Our Q3 direct expense ratio benefited from solid top line growth and ongoing expense discipline. While we would expect our direct expense ratio to be higher in Q4, consistent with the seasonality of our business, we are confident we will beat our full year direct expense ratio target of 12.6% in 2023 despite the challenging inflationary environment. We believe this demonstrates our consistent execution and focus on an efficiency mindset.

現在讓我們換個角度來討論第 10 頁上的費用。這張圖表顯示了我們 22 年全年以及 23 年前 3 個季度的直接費用比率的比較。 23年第三季度，這一比例為12.3%。正如我們之前所強調的那樣，我們認為，由於季度業績的波動，我們的全年直接費用率是衡量業績的最佳方式。我們第三季的直接費用比率受益於穩健的營收成長和持續的費用紀律。雖然我們預計第四季度的直接費用率會更高，這與我們業務的季節性一致，但我們有信心，儘管通膨環境充滿挑戰，我們仍將在2023 年實現12.6% 的全年直接費用率目標。我們相信，這顯示了我們一貫的執行力和對效率思維的關注。

Now let's turn to Page 11. This chart reflects new business value metrics for MetLife's major segments for the past 5 years, including an update for 2022. As mentioned by Michel, MetLife invested $3.7 billion of capital in '22 to support new business. This was deployed at an average unlevered IRR of approximately 17% with a payback period of 6 years, generating roughly $2.3 billion in value.

現在讓我們翻到第11 頁。這張圖表反映了大都會人壽主要部門過去5 年的新業務價值指標，包括2022 年的更新。正如Michel 所提到的，大都會人壽在2022 年投資了37 億美元資本來支持新業務。該項目的平均無槓桿 IRR 約為 17%，投資回收期為 6 年，創造了約 23 億美元的價值。

I will now discuss our cash and capital position on Page 12. Cash and liquid assets at the holding companies were approximately $4.9 billion at September 30, which is above our target cash buffer of $3 billion to $4 billion and higher than our $4.2 billion at June 30. The cash of the holding companies reflects the net effects of subsidiary dividends, a $1 billion senior debt issuance in July, payment of our common stock dividend, share repurchase of roughly $800 million in the third quarter as well as holding company expenses and other cash flows. In addition, we have repurchased shares holding approximately $250 million in October.

我現在將在第12 頁討論我們的現金和資本狀況。截至9 月30 日，控股公司的現金和流動資產約為49 億美元，高於我們30 億至40 億美元的現金緩衝目標，也高於6 月份的42 億美元30. 控股公司的現金反映了子公司股息、7 月份發行10 億美元優先債券、支付普通股股息、第三季度約8 億美元的股票回購以及控股公司費用和其他費用的淨影響。現金流。此外，我們也在 10 月回購了約 2.5 億美元的股票。

For our U.S. companies, preliminary third quarter year-to-date 2023 statutory operating earnings were approximately $3.1 billion, while net income was approximately $2.1 billion. Statutory operating earnings increased by approximately $1.6 billion year-over-year, primarily driven by favorable underwriting, partially offset by higher expenses. We estimate that our total U.S. statutory adjusted capital was approximately $17.7 billion as of September 30, 2023, up 2% from June 30, 2023. This increase was primarily due to operating earnings, partially offset by dividends paid and net investment losses. Total U.S. statutory adjusted capital has absorbed a negative impact of roughly $300 million associated with the investments expected to be transferred to Global Atlantic, which will be recovered upon closing.

對於我們的美國公司來說，2023 年迄今第三季的初步法定營業利潤約為 31 億美元，淨利潤約為 21 億美元。法定營業利潤年增約 16 億美元，主要由有利的承保推動，但部分被較高的費用所抵消。我們估計，截至2023 年9 月30 日，我們的美國法定調整資本總額約為177 億美元，較2023 年6 月30 日增長2%。這一增長主要歸因於營業收入，部分被支付的股息和淨投資損失所抵銷。美國法定調整資本總額已吸收了與預計轉移至 Global Atlantic 的投資相關的約 3 億美元的負面影響，該投資將在交易完成後收回。

Finally, we expect the Japan solvency margin ratio to be approximately 600% as of September 30, which we based on statutory statements that will be filed over the next few weeks.

最後，我們預計截至 9 月 30 日，日本償付能力充足率約為 600%，這是我們基於將在未來幾週內提交的法定聲明得出的。

Let me conclude with a few points. First, while VII remains below historical returns, core spreads remain robust and continue to benefit from higher yield environment. Second, the underlying strength of our business fundamentals continues to be displayed with strong top line growth, coupled with disciplined underwriting and expense management. Finally, our strong value of new business metrics provide further evidence of our disciplined approach to deploying capital to its highest and best use, consistent with our all-weather strategy.

讓我總結幾點。首先，雖然 VII 仍低於歷史回報，但核心利差仍強勁，並持續受益於較高的殖利率環境。其次，我們的業務基本面的潛在優勢繼續透過強勁的收入成長以及嚴格的核保和費用管理來體現。最後，我們對新業務指標的強大價值進一步證明了我們將資本部署到最高和最佳用途的嚴格方法，這與我們的全天候策略一致。

To close, MetLife remains in a position of strength given our balance sheet, free cash flow generation and diversification of our market-leading businesses, and we are committed to deploying capital to achieve responsible growth and building sustainable value for our customers and our shareholders.

截至收盤，鑑於我們的資產負債表、自由現金流產生和市場領先業務的多元化，大都會人壽仍然處於優勢地位，我們致力於部署資本以實現負責任的增長，並為我們的客戶和股東創造可持續的價值。

And with that, I will turn the call back to the operator for your questions.

然後，我會將電話轉回給接線員詢問您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And we have a question from Ryan Krueger with KBW.

（操作員說明）我們有 KBW 的 Ryan Krueger 提出的問題。

Can you provide some color on how January 1 renewals are shaping up so far in Group Benefits and also both in terms of persistency and the pricing dynamic in the market?

您能否提供一些關於 1 月 1 日續約迄今為止在團體福利方面以及持續性和市場定價動態方面的情況的資訊？

Ryan, it's Ramy here. I would say we're still in the middle of the season. Recall, the middle part of the market is still kind of active right now. But from everything we can see so far, we are doing extremely well here. Persistency in national accounts continues to be exceptionally high. We are seeing a tick up in the jumbo activity into next year as well, building on what we're doing this year. And with respect to our rate actions, we are getting the rates that the book needs in the market and continue to see that both in terms of new business as well as persistency.

瑞安，我是拉米。我想說我們仍處於賽季中期。回想一下，市場的中間部分目前仍然很活躍。但從目前我們所看到的一切來看，我們在這裡做得非常好。國民帳戶的持續性仍然非常高。在我們今年所做的事情的基礎上，我們預計明年的大型活動也會增加。就我們的利率行動而言，我們正在獲得這本書在市場上所需的利率，並繼續在新業務和持久性方面看到這一點。

And then in terms of capabilities within -- in Group Benefits and M&A, you've done a couple of things to round out the portfolio. Is there anything else you'd be interested in at this point? Or do you feel like you have what you need to grow organically?

然後就集團利益和併購方面的能力而言，您已經做了一些事情來完善投資組合。此時您還有什麼感興趣的嗎？或者您覺得自己擁有有機成長所需的條件嗎？

Yes. Ryan, it's Michel. Yes, I mean I think we're very pleased with the capabilities that we've built with the transactions that we've done in the last few years in Group Benefits. I think they've been highly complementary, and we're very pleased in how they've performed. Think about our PetFirst acquisition, our Versant acquisition. And we'll continue to invest in this business. We've said all along that this is a business where scale matters. And to continue to meet customer expectations, you have to continue to make meaningful investment, something that we've done. And I think that's translating in terms of the momentum we're seeing, whether it's in variable benefits or in other areas.

是的。瑞安，這是米歇爾。是的，我的意思是，我認為我們對過去幾年在集團福利方面所做的交易所建立的能力感到非常滿意。我認為他們具有很強的互補性，我們對他們的表現非常滿意。想想我們對 PetFirst 的收購和對 Versant 的收購。我們將繼續投資這項業務。我們一直說，這是一個規模很重要的業務。為了繼續滿足客戶的期望，您必須繼續進行有意義的投資，就像我們所做的那樣。我認為這正在轉化為我們所看到的勢頭，無論是在可變利益還是在其他領域。

Whereas we don't see any gaps when it comes to our product set or our capabilities, we're always open to opportunities if we think those make strategic sense, if we think they can help us accelerate revenue growth, whereas we see a path to continue to grow at -- within the range that we provided organically, if there was something that would help us accelerate that, that would make sense strategically and that would make sense from a valuation perspective as well. We look for the type of transactions that are accretive over time, that clear a minimum risk-adjusted hurdle rate. And we're always going to also compare any transaction to other potential uses of capital. At the end of the day, our focus pillar is about deploying capital to its highest and best use. So hopefully, this helps.

儘管我們在產品集或能力方面沒有看到任何差距，但如果我們認為這些機會具有戰略意義，如果我們認為它們可以幫助我們加速收入成長，那麼我們總是對機會持開放態度，而我們看到了一條道路在我們有機提供的範圍內繼續增長，如果有什麼東西可以幫助我們加速成長，那麼這在策略上是有意義的，從估值角度來看也是有意義的。我們尋找隨著時間的推移而增值的交易類型，以清除最低風險調整門檻利率。我們總是會將任何交易與其他潛在的資本用途進行比較。歸根結底，我們的重點支柱是如何最大限度地利用資本。希望這會有所幫助。

Next, we go to the line of Tom Gallagher with Evercore ISI.

接下來，我們進入 Tom Gallagher 與 Evercore ISI 的合作。

A couple of questions on capital. The SMR in Japan seems kind of low at 600% now. Is that something to watch? Or should we really be more focused on ESR since we're going to be pivoting to that new regime pretty soon? So that's the first question. The second is just the $1 billion increase in debt. Is that part of the permanent capital structure? Or are you prefunding a maturity there?

關於資本的幾個問題。現在日本的 SMR 似乎很低，只有 600%。這有什麼值得關注的嗎？或者我們真的應該更加關注 ESR，因為我們很快就會轉向新制度？這是第一個問題。第二個就是債務增加了10億美元。這是永久資本結構的一部分嗎？或您是否預先融資到期？

Tom, it's John. So first question on SMR. Yes, I think it's a balance when you start to look at these metrics. Obviously, we're looking forward at ESR. Higher rates are positive to ESR. So I think there's a transition happening in the market. We don't have any concerns with being at roughly 600% right now. Also, we have other tools if needed. To the extent that rates would rise further, we have other internal reinsurance transactions we could do as of now. So no concerns from a capital perspective or dividend capacity perspective.

湯姆，這是約翰。第一個問題是關於 SMR 的。是的，我認為當你開始考慮這些指標時，這是一種平衡。顯然，我們對 ESR 充滿期待。較高的利率對 ESR 有利。所以我認為市場正在轉變。我們對於目前大約 600% 的情況沒有任何擔憂。此外，如果需要，我們還有其他工具。如果利率進一步上升，我們目前還可以進行其他內部再保險交易。因此，從資本角度或股利能力角度來看，無需擔心。

What was your second question?

你的第二個問題是什麼？

The $1 billion debt increase.

債務增加10億美元。

On debt, yes, so we issued the debt in July. That is not considered permanent capital. That is to prefund a maturity in the first quarter of next year.

關於債務，是的，所以我們在七月發行了債務。這不被視為永久資本。即為明年第一季到期的資金進行預籌。

Okay. And then just one other quick one. The slightly improved real estate returns expected for alternatives in 4Q. Is that because you have some property sales resuming and related gains? Or is that just marks being stable?

好的。然後又是另一快。第四季替代品的房地產回報預期略有改善。這是因為您恢復了一些房地產銷售並獲得了相關收益嗎？或者這只是穩定的標誌？

Yes. I think it's more of the latter. I think it's just we've -- in a way, it's trailing a little bit of what's happened in PE, where we had kind of the markdown and then we've built -- you've kind of gotten to a trough. And as we said before, we feel like we'll bump along the bottom here for a little bit on some of these fund-related returns for some time, so before we see kind of that U-shaped recovery. So it's more of that.

是的。我認為更多的是後者。我認為這只是我們 - 在某種程度上，它有點落後於 PE 中發生的事情，我們進行了某種降價，然後我們進行了構建 - 你已經進入了低谷。正如我們之前所說，我們認為在一段時間內，我們會在一些與基金相關的回報上沿著底部波動，所以在我們看到 U 形復甦之前。所以更多的是這樣的。

Next, we move on to Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.

接下來，我們轉向摩根大通的吉米·布拉爾 (Jimmy Bhullar)。

First, I had a question on just retirement spreads. Should we assume that core spreads in the RIS business will maybe compress a little bit as you go through 2024 given expiration of caps? Or are there other puts and takes?

首先，我有一個關於退休利差的問題。我們是否應該假設，隨著 2024 年上限到期，RIS 業務的核心利差可能會略有壓縮？或者還有其他的看跌期權嗎？

Jimmy, it's John. As you said, so good strong core spreads this quarter, similar to last quarter. Just to help you guide to fourth, we think something in the same vicinity, maybe 135 to 140 is a good range to think about for fourth quarter. And then as you mentioned, over the course of '24, we will have some expiration of some of the caps. As we said before, this whole thing was constructed in a way for the caps to provide us time for the long rates to find their way into spreads. And those things, you've seen that come through in a healthy way. So we'll give some more guidance on that on the outlook call and provide some more detail as to how to think about 2024.

吉米，這是約翰。正如您所說，本季核心利差非常強勁，與上季類似。只是為了幫助您指導第四季度，我們認為在同一附近的某個值，也許 135 到 140 是第四季度值得考慮的一個不錯的範圍。然後正如您所提到的，在 24 年期間，我們的一些上限將會到期。正如我們之前所說，整件事的建構方式是為了讓我們有時間讓長期利率進入利差。您已經看到這些事情以健康的方式實現。因此，我們將在展望電話會議上就此提供更多指導，並提供更多有關如何思考 2024 年的細節。

Okay. And then on the CRE portfolio, the metrics almost seem deceptively too good and stable. But you mentioned you've resolved 88% of your 2023 maturities. Are you resolving them similar to how you would have done in the past, like in terms of either extending them yourself or third-party financing or stuff? Or are there differences in how the loans are being -- how the maturities are being resolved now versus maybe a few years ago when things were much more stable than CRE?

好的。然後就商業房地產投資組合而言，這些指標幾乎看起來過於良好和穩定。但您提到您已經解決了 2023 年到期債務的 88%。您是否像過去一樣解決這些問題，例如自己擴展或第三方融資或其他方式？或者貸款的處理方式是否存在差異——現在如何解決到期問題與幾年前相比，當時情況比商業房地產穩定得多？

Yes, it's John again. Thanks. I take issue with your deceptively comments, but besides that, only kidding. But on the maturities, it's roughly speaking, we've talked about these contractual extension options. That's been about 60% of the maturities and how they've all had contractual right. If you're in good standing, you meet all the financial tests. They tend to be in the mid-50s LTV. So strong financial metrics, almost 30% as well in terms of paid off or refinanced.

是的，又是約翰。謝謝。我對你的欺騙性評論表示異議，但除此之外，這只是開玩笑。但就到期日而言，粗略地說，我們已經討論了這些合約延期選項。這就是大約 60% 的到期日以及它們如何擁有合約權利。如果您信譽良好，則可以滿足所有財務測試。他們的 LTV 往往在 50 年代中期。如此強大的財務指標，在還清或再融資方面幾乎達到了 30%。

And then the remainder is probably 10% of that is loan modifications, and then the remaining small single digits is the foreclosure or net payoff, which is honestly, that level is somewhat similar to what we've seen in the past. So nothing out of the ordinary given the environment. So I think overall, roughly in line with historical. Maybe the -- people on the contractual options, those are floating rate. They're tending to wait to see when they lock in their long-term rates. So maybe there's been a little extra in terms of contractual extension options, but nothing out of the ordinary, I think, is the way to think about it.

然後剩下的可能是貸款修改的 10%，然後剩下的小個位數是止贖或淨收益，老實說，這個水平有點類似於我們過去看到的水平。因此，考慮到環境，沒有什麼異常。所以我認為整體來說，大致符合歷史。也許那些有合約選擇權的人，那些都是浮動利率。他們傾向於觀望何時鎖定長期利率。因此，也許在合約延期選項方面有一些額外的內容，但我認為，沒有什麼不同尋常的思考方式。

And the remaining 12%, that's just like a matter of time and you're going through stuff? Or is there something unique about those properties either by property location or otherwise?

剩下的 12%，這只是時間問題，你正在經歷一些事情？或者這些房產是否因房產位置或其他原因而有什麼獨特之處？

Yes. And the levels I gave you just now, they incorporate what we expect for the remaining 12%. So nothing unique or out of the ordinary. So I think the punchline we would share is everything is effectively in line with what we said in the first quarter when we gave an outline of what our expectation was for the year.

是的。我剛才給你們的水平，包含了我們對剩餘 12% 的預期。所以沒有什麼獨特或不尋常的。因此，我認為我們要分享的要點是，一切都與我們在第一季概述今年的預期時所說的一致。

And our next question is from the line of Suneet Kamath with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自蘇尼特·卡馬斯 (Suneet Kamath) 和傑弗里斯 (Jefferies)。

Just first question on the value of new business slide. So the amount of capital you've been deploying has sort of been the $3.7 billion. It's pretty similar to what you did in '18 and '19. But given where interest rates are, are you seeing incremental opportunities to deploy more capital in the business? And then relatedly, should we expect that IRR of 17%, which I acknowledge is pretty healthy, does that have upside in this rate environment?

關於新業務投影片的價值的第一個問題。因此，您已部署的資本金額約為 37 億美元。這與你在 18 年和 19 年所做的非常相似。但考慮到利率水平，您是否看到了在業務中部署更多資本的增量機會？與此相關的是，我們是否應該預期 17% 的 IRR（我承認這是相當健康的），在這種利率環境下是否有上升空間？

Suneet, it's John. Good question. So just in terms of deployment of capital, remember last year, I mean, just one reason for that is we had the large IBM case that came through in the third quarter of last year. But nonetheless, like you pointed out, very strong unlevered IRRs, strong payback periods. Very pleased with the results. We saw some great results actually in Japan as well. That's actually helping boost the VNB as well over the course of '22.

蘇妮特，是約翰。好問題。因此，就資本部署而言，請記住去年，我的意思是，原因之一是我們在去年第三季完成了 IBM 的大型案例。但儘管如此，正如您所指出的，無槓桿 IRR 非常強勁，投資回收期也很長。對結果非常滿意。實際上，我們在日本也看到了一些出色的成果。這實際上也有助於在 22 年期間提振 VNB。

In terms of IRRs, some of the things we've talked about is we do see -- I think broadly speaking, yes, I mean we're starting to see demand for these annuity-type products to pick up, right? So I think a volume aspect is emerging. I'd say it's still emerging in the institutional and retail space, broadly speaking. In terms of IRR and pricing, typically, the rate environment will price in. These -- the counterparties were buying or selling, however you want to look at it. They're pricing in the current rate environment. So I wouldn't expect a big uptick in IRRs. I think 17% IRR is a pretty healthy level to be at. But we'll see how things evolve.

就內部報酬率而言，我們談論的一些事情是我們確實看到的——我認為從廣義上講，是的，我的意思是我們開始看到對這些年金類型產品的需求回升，對嗎？所以我認為數量方面正在出現。我想說，從廣義上講，它仍然在機構和零售領域出現。就內部報酬率和定價而言，通常情況下，利率環境會影響價格。這些——交易對手正在買入或賣出，無論你想如何看待。他們是在當前的利率環境下定價的。因此，我預計 IRR 不會大幅上升。我認為 17% 的 IRR 是一個相當健康的水平。但我們會看到事情如何發展。

Okay. Got it. And then just on capital, should we expect a pickup in the sort of the pace of buyback once you close the Global Atlantic deal?

好的。知道了。那麼就資本而言，一旦完成全球大西洋交易，我們是否應該預期回購步伐會加快？

Yes. Suneet, it's Michel. So really pleased with the fact that we've secured all regulatory approvals for the Global Atlantic transaction. As we had mentioned, we expect that to add about 60 points to our RBC, and we consider that to be excess capital. When we announced the transaction, we increased the authorization by $1 billion, and that was to signal the sustainability of our buyback activity. We also have a track record post major divestitures of returning capital in a deliberate and expeditious manner. So I would suggest that we would conduct ourselves in the same manner here.

是的。蘇尼特，我是米歇爾。我們非常高興我們已經獲得了 Global Atlantic 交易的所有監管批准。正如我們所提到的，我們預計這將為我們的 RBC 增加約 60 個點，我們認為這是過剩資本。當我們宣布這項交易時，我們將授權增加了 10 億美元，這是為了表明我們回購活動的可持續性。我們也擁有在重大資產剝離後以審慎而迅速的方式返還資本的記錄。所以我建議我們在這裡也以同樣的方式行事。

And our next question is from Wes Carmichael with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的韋斯·卡邁克爾。

A follow-up on the group business. It seems like we're seeing pretty favorable results across the industry, maybe not deceptively good but definitely good. But just wondering what your outlook is for the industry to retain better margins in that business or if it's kind of given back over pricing in the next couple of years.

跟進集團業務。我們似乎看到整個行業都取得了相當不錯的結果，也許不是看似好，但絕對是好。但只是想知道您對該行業的前景如何，以在該業務中保留更好的利潤率，或者在未來幾年內是否會在定價方面得到回報。

Wes, it's Ramy here. I mean look, I think a couple of points to note here. So one, we're, of course, extremely pleased with our record quarter here, which is, by the way, a record even if you exclude the notable in the quarter. In general, what we tend to see in our results is there's seasonality. And while the dynamics are different by product line, in aggregate, the third quarter tends to be the most favorable over the course of the year. If I think for us specifically on a go-forward basis, you should think about the mortality ratio, which is below the guidance for this quarter. Think about that coming back in the fourth quarter to be within line for our guidance range.

韋斯，我是拉米。我的意思是，我認為這裡有幾點要注意。因此，我們當然對我們創紀錄的季度感到非常滿意，順便說一句，即使您排除本季度的值得注意的事情，這也是一個記錄。一般來說，我們在結果中往往會看到季節性。儘管不同產品線的動態有所不同，但總體而言，第三季往往是全年中最有利的季度。如果我特別從未來的角度考慮，您應該考慮死亡率，該比率低於本季度的指導值。考慮一下第四季的回報是否符合我們的指導範圍。

The other one I would perhaps talk about here is disability. I mean disability continues to perform really well, both with respect to incidents and recovery levels. Some of this favorability is stemming from a favorable macro environment. And we believe that favorability will, over time -- it's not going to happen in any given quarter but will, over time, come back into pricing.

我可能會在這裡談論的另一個問題是殘疾。我的意思是，無論是在事故發生率還是恢復水平方面，殘疾仍然表現得非常好。這種有利性部分源自於有利的宏觀環境。我們相信，隨著時間的推移，這種好感度不會在任何特定季度發生，但隨著時間的推移，它會重新體現在定價上。

But having said that -- and I'll refer back to kind of Michel's comments on having real focus and strategic intent here in terms of how we're investing in this business. The favorability we're seeing in disability is coming from solid underwriting, return to health capabilities, deployment of data, technology, predictive analytics in how we're running this business, in particular, investments we're also making in the leave and absence space. Those are resonating really well in the market and we believe, over time, will allow us to fuel further growth and maintain pretty robust margins here. And those are not going away. Those are differentiating capabilities that we have and distinct competitive advantages that we will maintain and continue to invest in.

但話雖如此，我還是要回顧一下米歇爾關於我們如何投資這項業務的真正重點和策略意圖的評論。我們在殘疾方面看到的優勢來自於可靠的核保、恢復健康能力、資料部署、技術、我們如何經營這項業務的預測分析，特別是我們在休假和缺勤方面進行的投資空間。這些在市場上引起了很好的反響，我們相信，隨著時間的推移，這將使我們能夠推動進一步的成長並保持相當強勁的利潤率。這些並不會消失。這些是我們擁有的差異化能力以及我們將維持並繼續投資的獨特競爭優勢。

And maybe sticking with the U.S. on the pension risk transfer market. It seems like maybe the market for full plan terminations has been heating up a little bit. I'm just wondering if you're willing to participate in those deals and also what the pipeline looks like as the fourth quarter has been pretty busy historically.

也許在退休金風險轉移市場上繼續與美國合作。看來全計劃終止的市場已經有點升溫了。我只是想知道您是否願意參與這些交易以及管道情況如何，因為歷史上第四季度一直非常繁忙。

Thanks. So we're pretty pleased with our performance this quarter. So year-to-date, we've had $3.5 billion worth of sales. We've also added another $600 million of premium so far in the fourth quarter. And we see a very healthy pipeline ahead and really with a lot of visibility into 2024, in particular, in the jumbo end of the market, which is where we focus and where we have distinct competitive advantages.

謝謝。所以我們對本季的表現非常滿意。今年迄今為止，我們的銷售額已達 35 億美元。到目前為止，第四季我們還額外增加了 6 億美元的保費。我們看到未來的管道非常健康，並且對 2024 年確實有很大的了解，特別是在大型市場，這是我們關注的領域，也是我們擁有明顯競爭優勢的領域。

Our focus so far has been on the immediate retiree only part of the market, and we see significant pipeline there, and we're able to win business at healthy IRRs. But we always continuously evaluate opportunities here. And as we've always stated, it's value over volume here. And so if we see opportunities with the right IRRs and the right returns and the right risk profile, we're always going to be looking to evaluate those as we go forward.

到目前為止，我們的重點只是直接退休人員市場的一部分，我們看到那裡有大量的管道，我們能夠以健康的內部收益率贏得業務。但我們總是不斷評估這裡的機會。正如我們一直所說的，這裡的價值重於數量。因此，如果我們看到具有正確內部報酬率、正確回報和正確風險狀況的機會，我們將始終在前進時尋求評估這些機會。

Next, we go to the line of Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們來看看 Alex Scott 與高盛的合作。

First one I had for you on LatAm. We continue to see good growth there. I think in the comments, you mentioned some of the digital initiatives and things like that. But I wanted to see if you could extrapolate further just on the sustainability of the really robust growth that you've seen in PFOs and how we should think about that business going into '24.

我在拉丁美洲為您準備的第一個。我們繼續看到那裡的良好增長。我認為您在評論中提到了一些數位舉措和類似的事情。但我想看看您是否可以進一步推斷您在 PFO 中看到的真正強勁增長的可持續性，以及我們應該如何考慮進入 24 年的業務。

Yes. Alex, thanks for the question. This is Eric. So we're overall very pleased with our results for the quarter. This is the fourth consecutive quarter of adjusted earnings in the $200 million range. The quarter's results are primarily driven by volume growth, favorable underwriting as well as foreign currency tailwinds, which were partially offset by lower recurring interest margins. And on the top line side, the positive trajectory continues, as you mentioned with solid double-digit growth, consistent with our expectations.

是的。亞歷克斯，謝謝你的提問。這是埃里克。因此，我們總體上對本季的業績感到非常滿意。這是調整後收益連續第四個季度達到 2 億美元。該季度的業績主要受到銷售成長、有利的承保以及外匯順風的推動，但經常性息差的下降部分抵消了這些影響。在收入方面，正如您所提到的那樣，積極的軌跡仍在繼續，實現了兩位數的穩健成長，這與我們的預期一致。

We're seeing growth across the region in both our retail and group business. We've been very deliberate in expanding beyond our core avenues of growth, developing third-party distribution channels, such as banks, financial institutions, retailers and others. And we've made significant technology-related investments in that space.

我們看到整個地區的零售和集團業務都在成長。我們一直非常謹慎地超越我們的核心成長途徑，開發第三方分銷管道，例如銀行、金融機構、零售商和其他管道。我們在該領域進行了大量與技術相關的投資。

And a good example is what you referred to that Michel mentioned and is opening around the launch of our new integrated platform, which provides embedded insurance capabilities for our distribution partners and thus creating a differentiating competitive advantage for us across the region. So all these factors, combined with our disciplined underwriting, pricing as well as efficiency focus, are contributing to the solid earnings performance and sustained momentum.

一個很好的例子就是您提到的米歇爾提到的，並圍繞我們新的整合平台的推出而開放，該平台為我們的分銷合作夥伴提供嵌入式保險功能，從而為我們在整個地區創造差異化的競爭優勢。因此，所有這些因素，再加上我們嚴格的核保、定價以及對效率的關注，都有助於實現穩健的獲利表現和持續的勢頭。

Very helpful. And then second question was on net investment income. Wanted to see if you could help us just with the benefits of higher interest rates and what it means really for net investment income trajectory more broadly across the organization. And then also interested if there's any tactical things you can do, anything you're doing allocation-wise that we should consider related to net investment income.

很有幫助。第二個問題是關於投資淨收益。我想看看您是否可以幫助我們了解更高利率的好處，以及它對整個組織更廣泛的淨投資收入軌跡的真正意義。然後，如果您可以做任何戰術性的事情，您正在做的任何分配方面的事情，我們都應該考慮與淨投資收益相關，那麼我們也很感興趣。

Alex, it's John. So a couple of things to point to for your question. We've given some sensitivities to interest rate movements in the past. And I think those are still fair approach to thinking about the impact generally driven by the benefits of roll-off and reinvest, and you're seeing that on the slides we shared. So that has an incremental benefit. Obviously, we've also done a lot to reduce our interest rate sensitivity over the years. So it's not a hockey stick per se, but there's inertia there as you look at some of those sensitivities. So I don't know if I have a number to give because gross numbers maybe get lost, but those sensitivities are more from an earnings perspective, and those are probably pretty good things to follow and think through as you kind of model out earnings growth.

亞歷克斯，這是約翰。對於你的問題，有幾點需要指出。過去我們對利率變動給予了一定的敏感度。我認為這些仍然是思考由滾動和再投資的好處通常帶來的影響的公平方法，你可以在我們分享的幻燈片上看到這一點。所以這會帶來增量好處。顯然，多年來我們也做了很多工作來降低利率敏感度。因此，它本身不是一根曲棍球棒，但當你考慮其中的一些敏感性時，就會存在慣性。所以我不知道我是否有一個數字可以給出，因為總數字可能會丟失，但這些敏感性更多是從盈利角度來看的，當你模擬盈利增長時，這些可能是值得遵循和思考的很好的事情。

In terms of tactical, I think there's always tactical asset allocations that occur. We have a view of relative values that we take into account. But certainly, as rates grow, fixed-oriented products kind of to grow in relative value. And we're seeing some unique opportunities out there. It's very helpful to have a wide breadth of product and expertise to work through the opportunities that are in the space, and that's scale. That scale is a big benefit. So we're excited for the opportunities that are out there. And having said that, we've been maintaining an up in quality mentality when it comes to investments. And with these rates, it's worked pretty well.

在戰術方面，我認為總是會發生戰術資產配置。我們有一個我們考慮的相對價值的觀點。但可以肯定的是，隨著利率的成長，固定導向產品的相對價值也會成長。我們看到了一些獨特的機會。擁有廣泛的產品和專業知識來利用該領域的機會非常有幫助，這就是規模。這種規模是一個很大的好處。因此，我們對現有的機會感到興奮。話雖如此，在投資方面我們一直保持著高品質的心態。就這些利率而言，它的效果非常好。

Our next question is from John Barnidge from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 John Barnidge。

Question about the value of new business slide that's updated, not around IRRs, but can you talk about how higher rates in your outlook for that volume could possibly increase along with the value of new business?

關於更新的新業務投影片的價值的問題，而不是圍繞內部報酬率，但您能否談談您對該數量的展望中的更高利率可能會如何隨著新業務價值的增加而增加？

John, it's John. Thanks for the question. I think there's a couple of ways to think through that, as I mentioned in the earlier comment. I mean we are seeing an increase in demand, and that is -- we've been able to solve that fairly efficiently with just annual capital generation. And that -- but we do think that it is going to grow, and we are constantly considering different ways to take advantage of that. I think eventually, as -- and maybe a little bit to an earlier question, as volume and demand grows, that could improve pricing to some degree. Right now, I think it's fairly consistent and adjust with interest rates. But there is dynamics between volume and how that can also improve value, but that will take some time.

約翰，是約翰。謝謝你的提問。正如我在之前的評論中提到的，我認為有幾種方法可以解決這個問題。我的意思是，我們看到需求的增加，也就是說，我們已經能夠透過每年的資本產生相當有效地解決這個問題。但我們確實認為它將會成長，並且我們不斷考慮以不同的方式來利用這一點。我認為最終，隨著數量和需求的增長，可能會在某種程度上提高定價。目前，我認為它相當一致，並隨著利率進行調整。但數量與如何提高價值之間存在動態關係，但這需要一些時間。

And my follow-up question. I know we're in the thick of renewal season for group benefits, but some retailers have started to comment about the impact from GLP or obesity treatment. How do you -- is that something that's come up within the renewal conversation at all? Just wanted to ask that.

還有我的後續問題。我知道我們正處於團體福利更新的高峰期，但一些零售商已經開始評論 GLP 或肥胖治療的影響。你怎麼看——這是否是續約對話中出現的問題？只是想問這個。

Yes. We're not really -- it's Ramy here, John. We're not really seeing any of those having any kind of material effect on our book of business. And remember, we're not in the major medical. We're not providing Rx. We are group life players, and none of that is really having any material impact at this point.

是的。我們不是真的──約翰，這裡是拉米。我們並沒有真正看到任何這些對我們的業務產生任何實質影響。請記住，我們不從事重大醫療工作。我們不提供 Rx。我們是團體生活的參與者，目前這些都沒有真正產生任何實質影響。

And our next question is from Mike Ward with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的麥克沃德。

I was just wondering if you could comment on the trends in Asia. It seems like the economy in Japan at least is reengaging or reopening. So any thoughts on maybe the near-term outlook there?

我只是想知道您是否可以評論一下亞洲的趨勢。日本經濟似乎至少正在重新啟動或重新開放。那麼對近期前景有什麼想法嗎？

Mike, it's Lyndon here. So just as we look at broadly Asia, I'll just comment on sales, and then maybe we can getting Japan more specifically. Overall, we've had a very strong quarter, and year-over-year sales continue to be very strong. We've seen a 5% growth overall and in Japan, 3%. In Asia in total, we've been up 8%, and that's driven broadly between Korea and China. If we look at the economy in Japan, it is really strong, but our sales are primarily driven by interest rates. And so the stronger interest rates have really helped us. So as long as that continues, we think we've got a really solid platform on which to leverage the higher sales.

麥克，我是林登。因此，正如我們廣泛關注亞洲一樣，我只會評論銷售情況，然後也許我們可以更具體地了解日本。總體而言，我們度過了一個非常強勁的季度，並且同比銷售仍然非常強勁。我們看到整體成長了 5%，日本成長了 3%。在亞洲，我們的整體成長了 8%，這主要是由韓國和中國推動的。如果我們看看日本的經濟，它確實很強勁，但我們的銷售主要是由利率驅動的。因此，更強勁的利率確實對我們有幫助。因此，只要這種情況持續下去，我們就認為我們擁有一個非常可靠的平台來利用更高的銷售額。

And then maybe just could you guys maybe speak to your appetite specifically for inorganic growth in the U.S. around voluntary benefits? That would be helpful.

然後，也許你們能談談你們對美國圍繞自願福利的無機增長的興趣嗎？那會有幫助的。

Mike, it's Michel. So as I mentioned earlier, whereas we don't see any gaps when it comes to our Group Benefits business here, we've been growing voluntary at -- in the high teens for a number of years. The employee paid component of our sales is also growing. We're always open to do something inorganically if we feel that it fits strategically, if it adds the capability, if it helps us accelerate revenue growth, provided it is accretive over time and provided it also compares favorably to other potential uses of capital. So whereas there are no gaps, we have M&A as a strategic capability here, and we'll deploy it if we believe it makes sense to do so and if it's a better use of capital compared to other potential uses.

麥克，這是米歇爾。正如我之前提到的，雖然我們在團體福利業務方面沒有看到任何差距，但多年來我們的志願服務一直在十幾歲左右增長。我們銷售額中員工付費的部分也在成長。如果我們認為某些事情符合策略，如果它增加了能力，如果它有助於我們加速收入成長，如果它隨著時間的推移而增加，並且與其他潛在的資本用途相比，我們總是願意做一些無機的事情。因此，雖然不存在差距，但我們將併購作為一種戰略能力，如果我們認為這樣做有意義，並且與其他潛在用途相比，它可以更好地利用資本，我們就會部署它。

Michel, maybe just one follow-up on that. Is case size something that makes you consider or not consider M&A and group overall?

米歇爾，也許只是對此的一個後續行動。案件規模是否會促使您考慮或不考慮併購和集團整體？

Meaning, Mike, you're referring to sort of deal size?

麥克，你指的是交易規模？

No, sorry, like the target market employer size.

不，抱歉，就像目標市場雇主規模一樣。

I mean not really. I mean I would say we have scale across our businesses and across markets. It's more around does 1 plus 1 equal more than 2, if you like, in terms of what we have and what we are potentially acquiring.

我的意思是不是真的。我的意思是，我們在各個業務和各個市場都具有規模。如果你願意的話，更多的是關於 1 加 1 是否等於 2，就我們擁有的和我們可能獲得的而言。

And we will turn the conference back to John Hall.

我們將把會議轉回約翰·霍爾。

Great. Thank you, everybody, for joining us on this very busy morning for insurance earnings, and have a nice day. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝大家在這個非常忙碌的早上加入我們以獲得保險收入，祝您有美好的一天。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。