Methanex Corp (MEOH) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Kate and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Methanex Corporation fourth-quarter 2025 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

早安.我叫凱特，今天將擔任你們的會議接線生。在此，我謹代表 Methanex 公司歡迎各位參加 2025 年第四季業績電話會議。（操作說明）謝謝。

I would now like to turn the conference call over to the Vice President of Investor Relations at Methanex, Mr. Robert Winslow. Please go ahead, Mr. Winslow.

現在，我將把電話會議交給 Methanex 的投資者關係副總裁羅伯特·溫斯洛先生。請繼續，溫斯洛先生。

Good morning, everyone. My name is Robert Winslow, and I recently joined Methanex as Vice President, Investor Relations. Welcome to Methanex's fourth quarter 2025 results conference call. Our 2025 fourth-quarter news release and 2025 annual report were posted yesterday and can be accessed through our website at methanex.com.

各位早安。我叫羅伯特‧溫斯洛，最近加入 Methanex 公司擔任投資人關係副總裁。歡迎參加 Methanex 2025 年第四季業績電話會議。我們2025年第四季新聞稿和2025年年度報告已於昨日發布，可透過我們的網站methanex.com存取。

I would like to remind the listeners that our comments today may contain forward-looking information, which by its nature is subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause the stated outcome to differ materially from actual results.

我想提醒各位聽眾，我們今天的評論可能包含前瞻性訊息，而前瞻性訊息本身存在風險和不確定性，可能導致所述結果與實際結果有重大差異。

We may also refer to non-GAAP financial measures and ratios that do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP, and are, therefore, unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. Any references made on today's call reflect our 63.1% economic interest in the Atlas facility, our 50% economic interest in the Egypt facility, our 50% interest in the Natgasoline facility, and our 60% interest in Waterfront Shipping. To review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, and to find definitions and reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures, please refer to our most recent news release, MD&A, annual report and investor presentation, all of which are posted on our website under the Investor Relations tab.

我們也可能提及非公認會計準則財務指標和比率，這些指標和比率沒有公認會計準則規定的任何標準含義，因此不太可能與其他公司提供的類似指標具有可比性。今天電話會議中提及的任何內容均反映了我們在 Atlas 工廠 63.1% 的經濟利益、我們在埃及工廠 50% 的經濟利益、我們在 Natgasoline 工廠 50% 的權益以及我們在 Waterfront Shipping 60% 的權益。如需查看有關前瞻性聲明的警示性語言，以及非GAAP指標的定義和調節表，請參閱我們最新的新聞稿、管理層討論與分析、年度報告和投資者演示文稿，所有這些文件都發佈在我們網站的「投資者關係」標籤下。

I will now turn the call over to Methanex's President and CEO, Mr. Rich Sumner for his comments, followed by a question-and-answer period.

現在我將把電話交給 Methanex 的總裁兼執行長 Rich Sumner 先生，請他發表講話，之後將進行問答環節。

Thank you, Robert, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today to discuss our fourth-quarter 2025 results. I'd like to start the call by thanking all our global team members for their continued commitment to responsible care and safety which remains at the core of our company's culture. Over 2024 and 2025, we've had the best two-year safety performance in our company's history even as we navigated significant changes to our asset portfolio and supply chain.

謝謝你，羅伯特，大家早安。感謝您今天蒞臨現場，與我們共同探討我們 2025 年第四季的業績。首先，我要感謝我們全球所有團隊成員，感謝他們一直以來對負責任的關懷和安全的承諾，這仍然是我們公司文化的核心。在 2024 年和 2025 年，儘管我們的資產組合和供應鏈發生了重大變化，但我們仍然取得了公司歷史上最好的兩年安全業績。

As a demonstration of these results, we've had zero Tier 1 process safety incidents over the past two years and recorded only 0.09 and 0.12 recordable injuries per 200,000 hours worked in 2024 and 2025 respectively compared with the chemical industry average of 0.59 in 2024. These outstanding achievements are a testament to our employees and contractors continued focus on strong planning, hazard awareness, and reliable behaviors.

為了證明這些成果，過去兩年我們未發生任何一級製程安全事故，2024 年和 2025 年每 20 萬工時分別僅記錄到 0.09 和 0.12 起可記錄傷害事故，而 2024 年化學工業的平均水平為 0.59 起。這些傑出的成就證明了我們的員工和承包商持續專注於周密的計劃、危險意識和可靠的行為。

Turning now to the financial and operational review of the company. Our fourth-quarter average realized price of $331 per tonne and produced sales of approximately 2.4 million tonnes generated adjusted EBITDA of $186 million and an adjusted net loss of $11 million. Adjusted EBITDA was lower compared to the third quarter of 2025 as higher sales of produced methanol were offset by a lower average realized price and the impact of immediate fixed cost recognition related to plant outages in the fourth quarter.

接下來對公司進行財務和營運審查。我們第四季平均實現價格為每噸 331 美元，產量約 240 萬噸，調整後 EBITDA 為 1.86 億美元，調整後淨虧損為 1,100 萬美元。與 2025 年第三季相比，調整後的 EBITDA 有所下降，因為甲醇產量增加被平均實現價格下降以及第四季度工廠停工導致的立即固定成本確認所抵消。

Turning now to industry fundamentals. We're closely monitoring the current events in the Middle East region and its impact on global markets and our business. Looking back on the fourth quarter, we estimate that global demand increased in China by about 4%, while demand outside of China was relatively flat.

現在來看一下行業基本面。我們正在密切關注中東地區的最新局勢及其對全球市場和我們業務的影響。回顧第四季度，我們估計中國市場的全球需求成長了約 4%，而中國以外市場的需求則相對穩定。

The increased demand in China in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter was driven by increased demand for methanol into energy applications and higher operating rates by methanol to olefin producers, the latter also being supported by high operating rates and import supply availability from Iran.

與第三季相比，第四季中國需求的成長主要受能源應用領域甲醇需求增加以及甲醇制烯烴生產商開工率提高的推動，而後者也得益於伊朗的高開工率和進口供應。

Steady imports from Iran, particularly through October and November, also led to higher coastal inventories in China, which pushed pricing towards the $250 per metric ton range. Towards the end of the fourth quarter, we believe seasonal gas constraints significantly reduced Iranian output leading to MTO producers reduced operating rates in response to decreasing supply.

伊朗的穩定進口，尤其是在 10 月和 11 月，也導致中國沿海地區的庫存增加，將價格推高至每公噸約 250 美元。我們認為，在第四季末，季節性天然氣供應限制大幅降低了伊朗的產量，導致MTO生產商因供應減少而降低了開工率。

Through the first quarter of 2026, up until current market escalations, our average realized pricing has been quite stable with some small increases on slightly tighter supply conditions. After considering first quarter posted prices and factoring in higher discounts -- customer discounts through recontracting for 2026, our first quarter average realized price is estimated to be between $330 and $340 per tonne.

從 2026 年第一季到目前市場狀況惡化之前，我們的平均實際價格一直相當穩定，在供應略微緊張的情況下略有上漲。考慮到第一季公佈的價格，併計入更高的折扣——客戶透過續約 2026 年合約獲得的折扣，我們第一季的平均實際價格估計在每噸 330 至 340 美元之間。

The current escalation in the Middle East brings significant uncertainty to reliability of methanol supply to the market from this region. We continue to see significantly reduced methanol supply from Iran, and we believe it is also impacting operations and trade flows from other producers. This has led to an increase in spot methanol pricing in Asia Pacific and Europe with Chinese methanol prices now trading above $300 per metric ton and European spot prices now trading close to $400 per tonne.

中東局勢的升級為該地區甲醇供應市場的可靠性帶來了極大的不確定性。我們持續看到伊朗甲醇供應大幅減少，我們認為這也影響了其他生產商的營運和貿易流動。這導致亞太地區和歐洲的甲醇現貨價格上漲，中國甲醇價格目前交易價格超過每噸 300 美元，歐洲現貨價格目前交易價格接近每噸 400 美元。

Now turning to our operations, where our methanol production was higher in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. Starting with our newly acquired assets in Texas. We produced 216,000 tonnes at Beaumont and 186,000 tonnes from our equity share of Natgasoline. During the fourth quarter, Beaumont experienced a short unplanned outage and Natgasoline took a plant 10-day outage to reduce a -- to replace the catalyst that's important to environmental compliance.

現在來看我們的營運情況，第四季的甲醇產量比第三季有所提高。首先從我們在德州新近收購的資產開始。我們在博蒙特生產了 216,000 噸汽油，從我們持有的 Natgasoline 股份中生產了 186,000 噸汽油。第四季度，博蒙特經歷了一次短暫的計劃外停產，而納特加索林工廠停產了 10 天，以減少——更換對環境合規性至關重要的催化劑。

We've been actively working with both of these manufacturing sites on integration plans, completing detailed reviews of systems and technical findings and are pleased with the progress to date.

我們一直積極與這兩個製造基地合作制定整合計劃，完成了對系統和技術發現的詳細審查，並對迄今為止的進展感到滿意。

In Geismar, production was slightly higher in the fourth quarter as all three plants operated reasonably well, although we did experience some minor unplanned outages. In Chile, after completing a plant turnaround in September, we operated both plants at full rates for most of the fourth quarter, utilizing gas supply from Chile and Argentina.

在蓋斯馬，第四季度的產量略有增加，因為所有三家工廠的運作狀況都相當不錯，儘管我們也經歷了一些小型的計劃外停機。在智利，我們在 9 月完成工廠檢修後，在第四季度的大部分時間裡，兩家工廠都以滿載運轉，利用來自智利和阿根廷的天然氣供應。

During December, a third-party pipeline failure caused a temporary restriction on gas supply to our facilities, and this resulted in approximately 75,000 tonnes of lost production. The gas supplier developed a resolution to this issue in early '26, and we're now operating both plants at full rates, which we expect to sustain through April.

12 月期間，第三方管道故障導致我方設施的天然氣供應暫時受限，造成約 75,000 噸的產量損失。天然氣供應商在 2026 年初找到了解決此問題的方案，我們現在兩座工廠都已滿載運轉，預計這種情況將持續到 4 月。

In Egypt, we had higher production in the fourth quarter as the third quarter was partially impacted by seasonal gas availability constraints. There's been stabilization of gas balances in the region, but some continued limitations on supply to industrial plants are expected going forward, particularly in the summer. The plant is currently operating at full rates, and we're closely monitoring the regional situation for any potential impact on gas supply to the plant.

在埃及，由於第三季受到季節性天然氣供應限制的影響，第四季的產量增加。該地區的天然氣平衡已經趨於穩定，但預計未來工業工廠的天然氣供應仍將受到一些限制，尤其是在夏季。該工廠目前正滿載運轉，我們正在密切關注區域情況，以防對工廠的天然氣供應產生任何潛在影響。

In New Zealand, we produced 171,000 tonnes as increased gas supply was available in the nonwinter season. Notwithstanding the short-term dynamics, structural gas supply availability in New Zealand continues to be challenging, and we're working with our gas suppliers, and the government to optimize our operations in the country.

在新西蘭，由於非冬季天然氣供應增加，我們生產了 171,000 噸天然氣。儘管短期內情況有所好轉，但紐西蘭的結構性天然氣供應仍然面臨挑戰，我們正在與天然氣供應商和政府合作，以優化我們在該國的營運。

Our expected equity production for 2026 is approximately 9 million tonnes of methanol. Actual production may vary by quarter based on timing of turnarounds, gas availability, unplanned outages, and unanticipated events.

我們預計 2026 年的權益產量約為 900 萬噸甲醇。實際產量可能因檢修時間、天然氣供應情況、計劃外停產和意外事件等因素而按季度有所不同。

Now turning to our current financial position and outlook. During the fourth quarter, solid cash flows from operations allowed us to repay $75 million of the Term Loan A facility and end the year in a strong cash position with $425 million on the balance sheet. Since the start of '26, we've repaid a further $50 million, and the balance of the Term Loan A facility is currently at $300 million.

現在來談談我們目前的財務狀況和前景。第四季度，穩健的經營現金流使我們能夠償還 7,500 萬美元的 A 類定期貸款，並以 4.25 億美元的強勁現金儲備結束了這一年。自 2026 年初以來，我們又償還了 5,000 萬美元，目前 A 類定期貸款的餘額為 3 億美元。

Our priorities for 2026 are to safely and reliably operate our business and continue to deliver on our integration plan. We remain focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and ensuring financial flexibility and our near-term capital allocation priority is to direct all free cash flow to the repayment of the Term Loan A facility.

我們2026年的首要任務是安全可靠地經營業務，並持續推進我們的整合計畫。我們將繼續專注於維持穩健的資產負債表，確保財務靈活性，近期資本配置的首要任務是將所有自由現金流用於償還 A 類定期貸款。

Based on a forecasted first-quarter average realized price between $330 and $340 per tonne and similar produced sales, we expect slightly higher adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the fourth quarter.

根據預測的第一季平均實現價格在每噸 330 美元至 340 美元之間，以及類似的產量和銷售情況，我們預計 2026 年第一季的調整後 EBITDA 將比第四季略高。

We'd now be happy to answer your questions.

我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

Joel Jackson，BMO資本市場。

Welcome aboard, Rob. Nice to hear from you again. Rich team, can you talk about costs? So if we look at Q4, and we think of costs, not gas costs but other costs logistics, other things going on, can you talk about what does that look like into the first half of this year in Q1? It seems like costs have really elevated.

歡迎加入，羅布。很高興再次收到你的來信。Rich團隊，可以談談費用問題嗎？所以，如果我們展望第四季度，考慮成本，不僅僅是汽油成本，而是其他成本、物流成本以及其他相關因素，您能否談談今年上半年（第一季）的情況？成本似乎確實上漲了很多。

What's going on? Are there any artifacts, some of the things going on with the OCI taking over the OCI assets?

這是怎麼回事？OCI接管OCI資產的過程中，是否存在一些遺留問題或情況？

Thanks, Joel. Yeah. I mean, a couple of points I'd make on cost is we did see that the unabsorbed costs come through. That's really about how the assets ran through December. We saw some outages there that just results in immediate recognition of those costs to the P&L. As we think into where we were, our fixed costs we would expect those to come down. Our ocean freight was probably a longer supply chain in the third and fourth quarter.

謝謝你，喬爾。是的。我的意思是，關於成本，我想指出幾點：我們確實看到未吸收的成本顯現出來了。以上就是截至 12 月的資產營運狀況。我們看到那裡出現了一些故障，導致這些損失立即計入損益表。回顧過去，我們的固定成本預計會下降。第三季和第四季，我們的海運供應鏈可能更長。

As we said, we do have probably a higher percentage of sales coming through in the last few quarters as we -- higher than we expect as we move into the new year with our contracted position. And then we have not yet -- we're not all the way through the OCI transaction. So right now, we are spending costs as we move through to create the synergies post deal, and that will happen through 2026 and when we get into 2027. So we're not all the way there obviously, and what we do need to do is to continue the integration plans.

正如我們所說，隨著我們進入新的一年，根據我們簽訂的合同，我們預計過去幾個季度的銷售額佔比可能會高於預期。而且我們還沒有——我們還沒有完全完成 OCI 交易。所以現在，我們正在投入成本，以便在交易完成後創造協同效應，這種情況將持續到 2026 年以及 2027 年。顯然，我們還沒有完全實現目標，我們現在需要做的是繼續推進整合計畫。

And as we move through, we'd expect beginning in 2027 that our fixed cost structure also adjusts down to the new base of the business.

隨著業務的推進，我們預計從 2027 年開始，我們的固定成本結構也將調整到新的業務基礎水準。

Okay. And then my second question is, obviously, you all know what's going on in the world. And there's a lot of methanol sitting in Iran and Saudi and around the Middle East. You obviously set your contract prices, your posted prices for March just on the onset of this. It's early, but what do you think is going to happen here in the market?

好的。那麼我的第二個問題是，很顯然，你們都知道世界上正在發生什麼事。伊朗、沙烏地阿拉伯和中東地區儲存著大量的甲醇。顯然，你們在疫情初期就確定了合約價格和三月的公佈價格。現在下結論還為時過早，但你認為市場接下來會發生什麼？

Like if this continues, can you talk about what will we see in the short term, the medium term as you see your business potentially changing from what's going on?

如果這種情況持續下去，您能否談談短期和中期內，您認為您的業務可能會受到當前情況的影響而發生哪些變化？

Yeah, for sure. I think for us, I mean, I think the -- our first -- and first priority here is our supply to customers. And I think this is where our reliability of supply and our global supply chain really shows -- demonstrates its value. And where we are today is that's our first commitment. Pricing has obviously increased in all regions with the anticipation of tightness coming out because the amount of tons on the internationally traded market here is quite meaningful that's currently impacted.

是的，當然。我認為對我們來說，我的意思是，我認為——我們的首要任務是滿足客戶的供應需求。我認為這真正體現了我們供應的可靠性和全球供應鏈的價值。而我們今天所處的階段，就是我們首要的承諾。由於國際貿易市場上的噸位相當可觀，目前受到影響的噸位數量相當可觀，預計供應將趨緊，因此所有地區的定價顯然都有所上漲。

So our first commitment is to our customers. And as of right now, we'll see some benefits because of the tightness on pricing through March, but the real reset will come through into the second quarter.

因此，我們首要的承諾是服務好我們的客戶。就目前而言，由於三月價格走低，我們將看到一些好處，但真正的調整將在第二季到來。

I think the big -- we're talking about around 15 million to 20 million tonnes of the globally internationally traded methanol market here. So it's a significant impact. which will ultimately impact all global markets, and we've seen pricing come up around the world, and we're watching things really closely here obviously, with our customers trying to make sure we keep them whole while also looking at the risks on the global market and potentially some demand destruction that could come out of the market as well. So watching things very closely, and we're really talking to all our suppliers about -- or all of our customers about how we can keep them supplied through this.

我認為最大的問題是——我們在這裡談論的是全球國際甲醇貿易市場中約 1500 萬至 2000 萬噸的甲醇市場。所以這是一個重大影響，最終將影響所有全球市場。我們已經看到世界各地的價格都在上漲，顯然，我們正在密切關注事態發展，努力確保我們的客戶利益不受損害，同時也在關注全球市場的風險，以及市場可能出現的某些需求萎縮。所以我們正在密切關注事態發展，並且正在與所有供應商或所有客戶討論如何確保他們在此期間的供應。

Ben Isaacson, Scotiabank.

本‧艾薩克森，加拿大豐業銀行。

I have a question and a follow-up. Rich, can you remind us how opportunistic are you able to be when we have price spikes? I know most of your volume is contracted. So can you just talk about how you can take advantage of short-term price spikes? And is there some kind of lag in that recognition?

我有一個問題和一個後續問題。Rich，你可以提醒我們一下，當價格飆升時，你是如何抓住機會的嗎？我知道你們的大部分業務量都屬於合約工。那麼，您能談談如何利用短期價格飆升的機會嗎？這種認知是否存在某種滯後性？

Thanks, Ben. Yeah, I mean, we're a term contract supplier. So our first priority is our commitment to our customers, and we reset price monthly. And so right now, we're selling based on our March contract price. And we would expect under current conditions that we would be resetting into April to be reflective of the market. So our first priority right today is the security of supply to our customers globally.

謝謝你，本。是的，我們是長期合約供應商。因此，我們的首要任務是履行對客戶的承諾，我們每個月都會調整價格。所以目前，我們是按照三月的合約價格來銷售的。我們預計，在目前情況下，4 月的調整將反映市場狀況。因此，我們目前的首要任務是保障全球客戶的供應安全。

Of course, there are certain mechanisms in our contracts, which may adjust up slightly, and that's built into our forecast. So you could see that there could be a little bit of a push up in our kind of guidance on where pricing is for the first quarter. But generally, it will reset into April. And our first commitment is really about, how do we make sure we keep the industry operating for our customers and really to help them take care of their business.

當然，我們的合約中有一些機制，可能會略微上調，這已經納入了我們的預測中。因此，您可以看到，我們對第一季定價的預期可能會略有上調。但通常情況下，它會在四月重置。我們首要的承諾是，如何確保產業持續運轉，為我們的客戶服務，並真正幫助他們管理好自己的業務。

Great. And my follow-up is in the Middle East. I know things are moving very quickly. Are you aware factually of any damage to methanol assets or export or port infrastructure in Iran? And are you seeing a slowdown in gas flow from Israel to Egypt?

偉大的。我的後續行程在中東。我知道事情發展得很快。您是否確切了解伊朗的甲醇資產、出口或港口基礎設施是否遭受任何損失？您是否注意到從以色列到埃及的天然氣輸送量減少？

Thanks, Ben. No, we're not aware of any damage to any methanol facilities. We're monitoring the situation really, really closely. As far as it relates to the gas supply from Israel and to Egypt, our understanding is that gas is not flowing that they've all but shut down the gas imports from Israel today. What we're working really closely with our gas suppliers in Egypt.

謝謝你，本。不，我們目前沒有發現任何甲醇生產設施遭到破壞。我們正在密切關注事態發展。就以色列向埃及的天然氣供應而言，據我們了解，天然氣供應已經中斷，他們今天幾乎完全停止了從以色列進口天然氣。我們正與埃及的天然氣供應商密切合作。

Our plant continues to operate. It is the low season in terms of demand on the gas grid in Egypt. And -- the Egyptian government has been getting in excess supply or more supply through LNG imports. So, so far, we've got sustainable operations there, but we're watching things and monitoring them really closely.

我們的工廠繼續運作。目前正值埃及天然氣管網需求的淡季。而且——埃及政府一直在透過進口液化天然氣獲得過剩的供應或更多的供應。所以，到目前為止，我們在那裡的運作是可持續的，但我們正在密切關注和監控情況。

Hamir Patel, CIBC Capital Markets.

Hamir Patel，加拿大帝國商業銀行資本市場。

Rich, in your price guidance for Q1, you referenced new customer discounts for 2026. So how should we think about, how much maybe on an annual basis, those have shifted? And will that largely be apparent in Q1? Or will it adjust over the year?

Rich，您在第一季的價格指引中提到了 2026 年的新客戶折扣。那我們該如何看待這些變化，比如說，每年可能會發生多大的變化？這種情況會在第一季明顯顯現嗎？或者它會在一年內進行調整？

I think the Q1 will be sort of -- is sort of the reset, Hamir. It's what we'll wind up seeing is that when we think about where our realized pricing is for Q1, if you go sort of region by region, China is going to be up because we saw that supply through Q4 built in China. So China is going to realize more in Q1. The European contract settlement actually results in slightly lower pricing for Q1 compared to Q4. And then when we look at where North America, Latin America, and Asia Pacific are, they're kind of relatively flat on a realized basis.

我認為第一季將會是某種意義上的重置，哈米爾。最終我們會看到，當我們考慮第一季的實際價格時，如果按地區來看，中國的價格將會上漲，因為我們看到第四季度中國生產的供應量增加。所以中國將在第一季實現更多成長。歐洲合約結算實際上導致第一季的價格比第四季略低。然後，當我們看一下北美、拉丁美洲和亞太地區的情況時，會發現它們的實際成長速度相對平緩。

So that should be a resetting the discount for 2020 -- or Q1 should be consistent through or a good guide for the rest of the year. And then on an average realized basis, we're expecting to be up a little bit. And this is all pre the current developments, right? So I think prior to the current situation, we were going to be slightly up mainly because of China and factoring in all those other considerations.

所以這應該會重置 2020 年的折扣——或者說第一季的折扣應該會保持一致，或者可以作為今年剩餘時間的良好參考。然後，從平均實際收益來看，我們預計會略有成長。這一切都發生在當前事態發展之前，對吧？所以我覺得，在目前的情況出現之前，我們原本會略有成長，這主要是因為中國經濟，也考慮到了其他一些因素。

Okay. Great. And Rich, with respect to the 2026, the $9 million production guide, can you give us some color on some of the regional puts and takes embedded in that? I imagine the Egypt piece is probably maybe the most fluid.

好的。偉大的。Rich，關於 2026 年 900 萬美元的產量指導，你能給我們介紹一下其中涉及的一些區域性風險和收益嗎？我想埃及主題的作品可能是最流暢的。

Yeah, I think it's -- we've got a -- you can think of it in terms of these numbers about 6 million or a little over 6 million tonnes in North America, about 1.3 million to 1.4 million tonnes for Chile, which is consistent with where we were last year, around 0.5 million to 0.6 million tonnes for Egypt, which is obviously less than around an 80% operating rate. And then Trinidad would be one plant would be really the Titan plant around 800,000 tonnes. So I think -- and then New Zealand our guide for New Zealand is less than 0.5 million tonnes, and that's because of the situation we're faced with in New Zealand on gas supply. So those are rough numbers to help you with kind of breaking that out by plant.

是的，我認為——我們可以用這些數字來理解：北美大約600萬噸或略高於600萬噸，智利大約130萬至140萬噸，這與我們去年的情況一致，埃及大約50萬至60萬噸，這顯然低於80%的開工率。然後，特立尼達的一家工廠實際上是泰坦工廠，年產能約 80 萬噸。所以我認為——紐西蘭的指導值不到 50 萬噸，這是因為紐西蘭目前面臨的天然氣供應狀況。以上是一些粗略的數字，可以幫助您按植物細分。

Steve Hansen, Raymond James.

史蒂夫漢森，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

I just want to go back to the discount issue or perhaps even just the weighted average global price just as we think about the shifting dynamics there. It did strike me that the realized price came in lower, but not just because of the discount but because of that global-weighted spread or global-weighted average, I should say. Has there been a material shift in the sales mix here in the last two quarters relative to prior? It does seem that the formulas we used in the past are becoming outdated.

我只想回到折扣問題，甚至是全球加權平均價格，因為我們正在思考這方面的動態變化。讓我感到驚訝的是，實際成交價更低了，但這不僅僅是因為折扣，而是因為全球加權價差或全球加權平均值。與之前相比，過去兩個季度的銷售結構是否發生了實質變化？看來我們過去使用的公式正在逐漸過時。

No, I think, what we do is we give guidance in terms of percentages in terms of regional allocations there, Steve. So I think you can use those as a good guide. And I think the proportion of China was higher as we move through Q4 for sure. And that's partly because when we acquired the assets, we did inherit a fairly large uncontracted position from the OCI business. We've contracted into Q1 now.

不，我認為，我們所做的，是就區域分配的百分比給出指導，史蒂夫。所以我認為你可以把這些當作很好的參考。而且我認為，隨著我們進入第四季度，中國所佔的比例肯定會更高。部分原因是，當我們收購這些資產時，我們從 OCI 業務中繼承了相當大的未簽訂合約部位。我們現在已經進入第一季了。

And I think the what you'd see is that if you work the percentages, and the pricing you get close to our ARP. But I think, we can help you with that offline, if it's, for some reason, it's not adding up.

我認為你會發現，如果你計算百分比和定價，你就會得到接近我們ARP的結果。但我認為，如果出於某種原因，帳目對不上，我們可以線下幫您解決這個問題。

Okay. No, that's very helpful. And just on the operational rhythm or cadence at the new facility in Geismar. It sounds like things are running well now. But just to give us a sense for again that cadence?

好的。不，這很有幫助。以及蓋斯馬新工廠的運作節奏或韻律。聽起來現在一切都很順利。但只是為了讓我們再一次感受那種節奏嗎？

Is it running sort of to plan, and you think you suggested even full rates? But I mean, is there anything else in sort of the tempo that we should expect to change over the balance of the year, whether it be turnarounds or other major hiccups?

目前進展基本上符合計劃，你覺得你甚至建議了全額收費嗎？但我的意思是，在今年剩餘的時間裡，節奏方面是否還有其他變化是我們應該預期的，無論是出現轉機還是其他重大波折？

Yeah. No, we're pleased with the operations in Geismar. We've gotten through our the ATR challenges that we had, and we feel really good about the way the asset is running. So in a lot of ways, it's about just continuing to ensure safe, reliable operations in Geismar, and the team is doing a fantastic job there. So we're -- we've put those issues behind us.

是的。不，我們對蓋斯馬的運作情況很滿意。我們已經克服了ATR所面臨的挑戰，並且對資產的運作感到非常滿意。因此，從很多方面來看，關鍵在於繼續確保蓋斯馬的安全、可靠運營，而團隊在那裡做得非常出色。所以，我們已經把那些問題拋在腦後了。

And right now, we've got a really good, stable production coming out of Geismar.

目前，蓋斯瑪工廠的生產非常穩定且品質優良。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

Jeff Zekauskas，摩根大通。

I remember that you were less hedged on gas at Beaumont and Natgasoline. Is your hedging now consistent with your other North American plants, and when there was that gas spike at the end of January? Was that something that you felt or you were hedged against it?

我記得你在博蒙特和納特加索林公司對汽油的投入較少。你們目前的對沖策略是否與你們在北美的其他工廠以及1月底天然氣價格飆升時的情況一致？你是否曾有過這種感覺，還是你對此有所防備？

Yeah. Thanks, Jeff. We -- so our hedging today, what we're guiding towards is around 50% hedged for our North American assets, and that's across the whole portfolio. We did see gas pricing, as we always see, come up through the winter period, and then we did hit the gas spike. We'll talk more about our operations when we get to our first quarter results, but we would expect and normally expect gas prices to come up, and then we have different ways to manage that.

是的。謝謝你，傑夫。因此，我們目前的對沖目標是北美資產的對沖比例達到 50% 左右，這涵蓋了整個投資組合。正如我們往常看到的那樣，冬季期間汽油價格上漲，然後我們遇到了汽油價格飆升。我們將在公佈第一季業績時詳細討論我們的營運情況，但我們預計（而且通常也預料到）汽油價格會上漲，屆時我們將採取不同的方法來應對。

So we would have had some open exposure, but we would have been managing disclose more about that in our first quarter. We do expect the gas pricing, and that's part of the guide. Really, when we look at slightly higher earnings, part of the reason that it's slightly higher and not higher is because there is a bit higher gas cost coming through in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter, which we'll give more information on when we go to disclose that in the coming weeks here.

因此，我們可能會有一些公開披露的信息，但我們會在第一季更多地披露這些信息。我們預計汽油價格會有所波動，這已納入指導方針中。實際上，當我們觀察略微增長的收益時，部分原因是第一季的天然氣成本比第四季度略高，我們將在未來幾週披露相關資訊時提供更多詳情。

Okay. And in Trinidad, do you expect your operating rates to rise relative to the fourth quarter or fall in the first quarter?

好的。那麼在特立尼達，您預計您的營業額會比第四季上升還是比第一季下降？

Well, we've got in Trinidad. We're running the one plant, the one -- the smaller Titan plant based on a gas contract for the plant. So we're expecting that operations should be very consistent. And yeah, we'll operate that plant. Our main focus is going to be on gas contract renewals for the Titan facility. That contract comes up at the end of -- in September timeframe, and we would expect to have good operations from that plant up until that timeframe.

嗯，我們在特立尼達。我們目前只經營一家工廠，就是那家規模較小的泰坦工廠，該工廠是根據一份天然氣合約運作的。因此，我們預計營運情況會非常穩定。是的，我們會運作那座工廠。我們的主要工作重點將是泰坦設施的天然氣合約續約。該合約將於9月底到期，我們預計工廠在此之前將保持良好的運作狀態。

We are looking at the contract renewal already. Most producers are already in discussions for their gas recontracting, their feedstock recontracting in Trinidad, and we're making sure we're in discussions as ours comes up later in the year. But I would anticipate that we're running that plant at similar rates to last year until that time.

我們已經在考慮續約事宜了。大多數生產商已經在就其天然氣續約和在特立尼達的原料續約進行談判，我們也正在確保我們參與談判，因為我們的續約談判將在今年稍後進行。但我預計，到那時為止，該工廠的運作速度將與去年類似。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀集團的 Josh Spector。

It's Chris Perrella on for Josh. As you had lower production out of the OCI -- the acquired assets sequentially. Can you just give us an update on the integration there and sort of what the cost puts and takes over the course of 2026 or what you guys are budgeting in there for the spend to get the synergies?

克里斯·佩雷拉代替喬許上場。由於 OCI 的產量較低——收購的資產按順序遞減。能否為我們介紹一下這方面的整合進展，以及在 2026 年期間的成本投入和支出情況，或者你們為實現協同效應在預算中預留了多少資金？

Yeah. No, the first thing I'd say about the assets is we're really pleased with the way the operations are going there. We -- when we modeled this, on the acquisition, we used operating rates of around 85% to 90%, and we've definitely achieved over and above that since we've owned the assets. We're really impressed with the teams that we're working with, and we're really working collaboratively together to bring our global expertise and work with the expertise at both sites to create value from the asset.

是的。不，關於這些資產，我首先要說的是，我們對那裡的營運情況非常滿意。我們在進行收購建模時，使用了大約 85% 到 90% 的營運率，而自從我們擁有這些資產以來，我們肯定已經遠遠超過了這個數字。我們對合作的團隊印象深刻，我們正在真正地共同協作，將我們的全球專業知識與兩個地點的專業知識相結合，從資產中創造價值。

So really happy with that. We did have some downtime in Natgasoline, and that was really partly an environmental compliance getting ahead of environmental compliance there and taking a proactive outage. And then we did have some minor downtime at the Beaumont plant as well. So really happy with the way the assets are running and as well as the other parts of the integration. What we did have is, we had, we said about $30 million in synergies that we were targeting to realize by the end of 2026.

對此我非常滿意。我們在天然氣業務上確實遇到了一些停工，這實際上部分原因是環境合規問題，我們提前採取了主動停工措施。然後，博蒙特工廠也出現了一些小的停工。我對資產的運作方式以及整合的其他部分都非常滿意。我們確實擁有，我們說過，到 2026 年底，我們將實現約 3000 萬美元的協同效應。

We've realized some of those, but you also have to take on higher costs when you're integrating systems, and you're integrating teams and other things during that phase. So we're in the middle of that right now, and we'd expect to try to complete that as we move through 2026, and then have realized the $30 million in synergies as we move into '27.

我們已經意識到其中一些問題，但在整合系統、整合團隊以及其他環節時，也需要承擔更高的成本。所以我們現在正處於這個階段，我們預計在 2026 年完成這項工作，然後在進入 2027 年時實現 3000 萬美元的協同效應。

I appreciate that. Is there a step-up in the spend there in the year? Or is that cost now kind of baked in on a go-forward basis, at least through the end of the year? And then could you just -- has the gas supply situation in Trinidad absent the contract improved since the events in Venezuela?

我很感激。今年該地區的消費額是否增加？或者說，這筆成本現在已經基本計入未來一段時間的預算中了，至少到今年年底為止？那麼，您能否簡要說明一下——自委內瑞拉局勢惡化以來，在沒有合約的情況下，特立尼達的天然氣供應情況是否有所改善？

Yeah. So to the first question about the spend there increased. I would say no. When we did the modeling around the deal, we would have set a certain assumption around operating rates, and we would have set an assumption around CapEx spend on average per year.

是的。所以，關於那裡的支出增加這個問題，首先要回答的是：我會說不。在對這筆交易進行建模時，我們會對營運率設定一些假設，也會對每年的平均資本支出設定一些假設。

The two things I'd say to that is the plants have been operating above our assumptions on the deal. And the second thing is both of the assets have come off of turnarounds in 2024 and 2025. So really, the CapEx spend relative to where we had deal assumptions, which would have been an average are much lower in the early phase of the asset acquisition, which is good for us because we're in a deleveraging period.

對此我想說兩點：一是這些工廠的運作已經超出了我們當初對這筆交易的預期。第二點是，這兩項資產分別在 2024 年和 2025 年完成了扭虧為盈。所以實際上，相對於我們先前的交易假設（即平均水平），資產收購早期階段的資本支出要低得多，這對我們來說是好事，因為我們正處於去槓桿化時期。

On your second question, which is in regards to Venezuela, yeah, so there's announcements about fields being developed there and for import into Trinidad. So that is a longer-term positive. When we look at the Dragon field that's recently been announced, the things I would say is, one, the size of these fields relative to the demand/supply gap, more than just the Dragon field needs to be developed. So there are other fields also being developed, but that's going to take time.

關於你的第二個問題，也就是關於委內瑞拉的問題，是的，有公告指那裡正在開發油田，並將原油進口到特立尼達。所以從長遠來看，這是一個正面因素。當我們審視最近宣布的龍油田時，我想說的是，第一，這些油田的規模相對於供需缺口而言，需要開發的不僅僅是龍油田。所以其他領域也在發展，但這需要時間。

It's going to take a lot of progress. And then ultimately, we're also going to need to ensure that the commercial agreements and pricing that is for that gas, allows that to make sense long term for methanol.

這需要取得很多進展。最終，我們還需要確保與甲醇相關的商業協議和定價能夠使其長期發展具有意義。

So there's a lot to be done there, and our focus is really on the short term right now is how we're operating our plants in Trinidad with a contract renewal that's ahead of us before any of this gas could come on.

所以還有很多工作要做，而我們現在的重點實際上是短期內我們在特立尼達的工廠的運作情況，因為在這些天然氣投入使用之前，我們還要完成合約續約。

Nelson Ng, RBC Capital Markets.

納爾遜·吳（Nelson Ng），加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Quick question on the supply/demand dynamics. Rich, you talked about potential demand destruction. Can you -- like I think you talked about in the past how MTO facilities are, like their economics are somewhat challenged. But do you expect a large reduction in MTO demand? And also from your customer perspective, do you have a sense of how price sensitive they are?

關於供需動態，我有個問題想請教一下。Rich，你剛才談到了潛在的需求萎縮。你能不能——就像你以前談過的，MTO設施的經濟狀況在某種程度上受到了挑戰。但你預計按訂單生產的需求會大幅下降嗎？另外，從顧客的角度來看，您是否了解他們對價格的敏感度？

Yes. So thanks, Nelson. Yes, just there's a lot of dynamics going on, obviously, right now. So we've seen, just in terms of MTO and MTO affordability, to your point, the price in methanol is rising, but so is the price downstream for the -- in the olefins market, and that's because, it's not -- methanol is constrained, but so is naphtha, so is all the oil derivatives that come out of the Middle East, which means naphtha pricing has gone up, which means olefins pricing has gone up, which means that makes methanol more affordable. So there's a lot of dynamics at play right now.

是的。謝謝你，納爾遜。是的，顯然，現在有很多因素在起作用。所以我們看到，就MTO和MTO的可負擔性而言，正如您所說，甲醇的價格正在上漲，下游烯烴市場的價格也在上漲，這是因為甲醇的供應受到限制，石腦油的供應也受到限制，所有來自中東的石油衍生品的供應也受到限制，這意味著石腦油的價格上漲了，烯烴的價格也上漲了，這意味著甲醇的價格更實惠。所以現在有很多因素在起作用。

That's what's you're actually uplifting China price, but their pricing in the downstream has gone up too. So the affordability dynamics are changing as well. So there's a lot in play.

實際上，你提高了中國的價格，但他們的下游產品價格也上漲了。因此，購屋能力也在改變。所以有很多因素在起作用。

I think what's going to happen here is depending on the restriction on supply, it's going to be, okay, how does that supply get directed into which markets, and then what does that do to price? So we're watching things really, really closely. But right now, every -- all energy and energy derivatives are lifting up because the demand/supply gap continues to grow every day that there's disruption in that region and not a lot of product flowing out.

我認為接下來會發生的情況取決於供應限制，問題在於，這些供應將如何流入哪些市場，以及這將對價格產生什麼影響？所以我們正在非常密切地關注事態發展。但目前，所有能源及能源衍生性商品價格都在上漲，因為該地區持續動盪，產品供應不足，導致供需缺口不斷擴大。

So we're going to monitor this really closely. Our commitments to work with our customers and on security of supply, and certainly, we see the forecast would be there's going to be pressure until some relief comes into the market.

所以我們會密切關注此事。我們致力於與客戶合作，保障供應安全。當然，我們預計在市場出現一些緩解措施之前，供應壓力將會持續存在。

Okay. Got it. And then in terms of your production in New Zealand, it's staying relatively low in 2026. I presume that facility is marginally profitable. So I just want to get your sense on like what are some of the factors or some of the key factors you look at in terms of making a decision to potentially like mothball that last plant?

好的。知道了。至於紐西蘭的產量，2026 年將維持相對較低水準。我估計這家工廠的利潤微薄。所以我想了解一下，在決定是否要封存最後一株植物時，您會考慮哪些因素或關鍵因素？

Yes. So I mean, really, it's coming down to gas production and gas development and production out of the field. These are very mature fields, and there's not outside of the existing fields, there's not a lot of new exploration going on. So our concern would be that we have seen the forecast continue to decline. And in that industry, you have to see capital going in, and you have to see development consistently happening for that to be -- for your operations to be sustained. So we're watching things really, really closely.

是的。所以我的意思是，說到底，問題歸根究底還是天然氣生產、天然氣開發和油田開採。這些都是非常成熟的領域，在現有領域之外，並沒有太多新的探索正在進行中。因此，我們擔心的是，我們已經看到預測值持續下降。在這個產業裡，你必須看到資金投入，你必須看到持續的發展，這樣你的營運才能得以維持。所以我們正在非常密切地關注事態發展。

Today, that we've got a profitable operation, but we are operating even when there's peak gas available, we're still operating at less than one plant at less than full rates, which is not ideal. So we're watching things really closely. And we're working with gas suppliers as well as the government to sustained operations, but it is a tough outlook right now.

雖然我們目前營運獲利，但即使在天然氣供應高峰期，我們也只有不到一個工廠以低於滿載的產能運行，這並不理想。所以我們正在密切關注事態發展。我們正在與天然氣供應商和政府合作，以維持運營，但目前前景艱難。

Matthew Blair, TPH.

Matthew Blair，TPH。

Great. Could you talk about whether you're truly realizing the benefits of the OCI acquisition that closed in mid-2025. And just looking at the total company EBITDA in Q3 and Q4, it's roughly flat to Q2, even though like global spot methanol prices are also about flat, and I think the OCI acquisition should have provided at least $250 million in EBITDA. So is this just a function of, I remember Q3, you had some accounting headwinds, Q4, it sounds like some unplanned outages, but are you getting the benefits of that OCI deal rolling through?

偉大的。您能否談談您是否真正實現了在 2025 年中完成的 OCI 收購帶來的好處？單看第三季和第四季的公司 EBITDA 總額，與第二季基本持平，儘管全球現貨甲醇價格也基本持平，但我認為收購 OCI 應該會帶來至少 2.5 億美元的 EBITDA。所以這僅僅是因為，我記得第三季度你們遇到了一些會計方面的困難，第四季度聽起來像是出現了一些計劃外的停工，但是你們是否正在享受 OCI 交易帶來的好處？

Yeah. So I think, maybe the way to answer this is just look at that -- if we look at kind of the numbers that we had on the deal at a $350 methanol price, we said it was slightly over $1 billion in EBITDA. So that would be $250. Methanol prices today are not at $350 per tonne, that's $20 lower across an asset base that's 9 million tonnes. So that's -- the big thing is price.

是的。所以我覺得，回答這個問題的方法可能就是看看這個——如果我們看一下我們當時在甲醇價格為每盎司 350 美元時達成的交易數據，我們說它的 EBITDA 略高於 10 億美元。所以那就是250美元。今天的甲醇價格並非每噸 350 美元，而是比 900 萬噸資產規模下的價格低 20 美元。所以，最重要的是價格。

We're also pre-synergies on the deal, so we haven't realized the synergies. And I did describe there are some other things on cost structure that are slightly above what our assumptions would have been on the deal.

目前我們還沒有實現這筆交易的綜效，所以綜效尚未顯現。我還提到，成本結構方面還有一些其他因素略高於我們對這筆交易的預期。

So as we see that some of those cost issues are transitionary. And I think we can get back to those numbers, but we certainly need the market to be a little tighter and methanol prices to be at the $350 level to hit the numbers that we disclosed. And in today's environment, we would be looking and thinking we're probably at least in the short term, going above $350.

由此可見，其中一些成本問題是暫時的。我認為我們可以回到那些數字，但我們當然需要市場更加緊張一些，甲醇價格達到 350 美元/加侖的水平，才能實現我們公佈的數字。在今天的環境下，我們預計至少在短期內，價格可能會超過 350 美元。

Okay. Sounds good. And then what percent of your North American methanol production is exported? And should we think about applying spot US prices to those export volumes? Or is that really still on like a contract basis?

好的。聽起來不錯。那麼，你們北美甲醇產量中有多少百分比用於出口？我們是否應該考慮將美國現貨價格應用於這些出口量？或者說，這實際上仍然是以合約形式進行的？

We run our -- I think the way to think of it is we run our global supply chain, our assets through our global supply chain. So we give our regional sales percentages, and then you can see where our assets are located. So our -- we run things so that our product isn't assigned to any particular region. It's a flexible supply chain where we -- our main priority is to keep our customers full with in the most cost-effective manner to do that. So I think it's a little bit more, you have to put it together on where the product is going and how much we're selling.

我認為應該這樣理解：我們經營我們的全球供應鏈，我們的資產透過我們的全球供應鏈運作。因此，我們會給出各區域的銷售百分比，然後您就可以看到我們的資產位於哪裡。所以我們採取的措施是，讓我們的產品不被分配到任何特定地區。這是一個靈活的供應鏈，我們的首要任務是以最具成本效益的方式讓我們的客戶獲得充足的供應。所以我覺得這其中還有更多因素，你需要把產品的銷售方向和銷售量結合起來考慮。

And right now, we've got -- we would give you the global sales allocation, and you can see where our assets are located. And so we will have some cross-basin flows from the Atlantic over into Asia Pacific, but mostly the product stays within the Atlantic Basin.

現在，我們可以向您提供全球銷售分配情況，您可以看到我們的資產位於哪裡。因此，大西洋會有一些跨盆地流動到亞太地區，但大部分產品仍留在大西洋盆地內。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯‧亞歷山大，傑富瑞集團。

I guess, first of all, just can you help parse what the current situation means for the market in terms of the near term? Like how much of the near-term disruption is shipping being rerouted, and to what extent, or how long do you think it will take for you to start seeing customers shutting capacity in response to a tighter market? Can you help sort of parse the near-term supply chain adjustment versus how you're thinking about the demand adjustment?

首先，我想請您幫忙分析一下，就近期市場走勢而言，當前情勢意味著什麼？例如，近期內有多少運輸中斷是因為航運路線改道造成的，改道的程度如何？或者，您認為需要多久才能看到客戶因市場供應緊張而關閉產能？您能否幫忙分析近期供應鏈調整與您所設想的需求調整之間的關係？

Yeah. So thanks, Laurence. I think when we look at what supply is impacted today, you have between Iran that Iran puts into the market around 9 million to 10 million tonnes a year. And then when you combine Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain in other countries that are going to be impacted. It's probably another 9 million to 10 million tonnes of a 100 million-tonne market, but really a globally internationally traded market about 55 million tonnes. So this is a pretty big impact.

是的。謝謝你，勞倫斯。我認為，當我們審視目前受影響的供應時，會發現伊朗每年向市場投放約 900 萬至 1,000 萬噸原油。然後，再加上沙烏地阿拉伯、阿曼、卡達、巴林以及其他將受到影響的國家。這可能相當於1億噸市場中的900萬至1000萬噸，但實際上全球國際貿易市場約為5500萬噸。所以這影響相當大。

Of course, Iranian supply goes only into China. So that's a direct impact to the China market. And then the other product services, mainly the Asia Pacific region as well as some into Europe. So those trade flows today have stopped. How long this lasts, how quickly you can -- you work, you're going to first work off inventories, you're going to try and buy product to ensure security of supply.

當然，伊朗的物資只銷往中國。所以這對中國市場有直接影響。然後是其他產品服務，主要面向亞太地區，也包括一些歐洲地區。所以，如今這些貿易往來已經停止了。這種情況會持續多久，你能多快做到——你得先消耗掉庫存，然後才能設法購買產品以確保供應安全。

How long this lasts will impact. How long and how long people have on inventory will ultimately determine how long people can operate here. So our first commitment here is to our contract customers, and the security of supply that we provide through our contracts, and that's our number one commitment, and we'll continue to monitor this as it evolves because it's certainly hitting methanol, and it's hitting a lot of other downstream oil and energy products as this develops.

這種情況會持續多久將會產生影響。人們的庫存週轉時間和庫存週轉天數最終將決定他們在這裡能夠經營多久。因此，我們首要的承諾是履行與合約客戶之間的義務，保障我們透過合約提供的供應安全，這是我們最重要的承諾。我們將繼續密切關注事態發展，因為甲醇肯定會受到影響，而且隨著事態發展，許多其他下游石油和能源產品也將受到影響。

And secondly, on your shipping fleets, given that you can reroute tankers more quickly than sort of somebody who's using the -- has a ship but that might be contracted to ship in other products rather than being committed to methanol. Should you be seeing a benefit in Q2 or Q3 from that? And can you help size it?

其次，就你們的船隊而言，鑑於你們可以比那些擁有船舶但可能簽訂了運輸其他產品而非專門運輸甲醇的合約的人更快地重新安排油輪航線。預計第二季或第三季會從中受益嗎？你能幫忙量一下尺寸嗎？

Yeah. I mean, I think the main thing for us is that this is where our time charters certainly give us that security within our supply chain. And so we have very little spot exposure in our fleet. We've seen shipping rates double on a lot of the lanes that we do. And so it's more of a what does it do to our competitors versus what does it do to us to the extent that pricing has to go up to help our competitors cover costs to meet security of supply well, then that's going to be baked into the pricing that we can benefit from.

是的。我的意思是，我認為對我們來說最重要的是，我們的定期租船合約確實能為我們的供應鏈提供保障。因此，我們的船隊中現貨風險敞口非常小。我們發現我們許多運輸路線的運費都翻了一番。因此，更多的是考慮這對我們的競爭對手有什麼影響，而不是對我們有什麼影響。如果為了幫助競爭對手彌補成本以確保供應安全，價格必須上漲，那麼這部分成本就會反映在價格中，而我們可以從中受益。

So it's not an immediate like instant hit to our cost structure because we -- ours are fixed in. But we do think that that partially is compensated through increasing price that's required to get other products into market. So again, that's another factor that we'll be watching. And certainly, this shows that demonstrates the value of our Waterfront Shipping company and having dedicated ships to our business.

所以這不會立即對我們的成本結構造成衝擊，因為我們的成本結構是固定的。但我們認為，這部分損失可以透過提高其他產品進入市場所需的價格來部分彌補。所以，這也是我們需要關注的另一個因素。這無疑證明了我們濱水航運公司的價值，以及擁有專用船舶對我們業務的重要性。

The last question comes from the line of Steve Hansen with Raymond James.

最後一個問題來自史蒂夫漢森和雷蒙德詹姆斯的連線。

Just in the event that this conflict does last longer than planned or longer than some people might expect, how do you think about the incremental or excess cash flow coming in the door? Is it just going to accelerate the paydown of Term Loan A? How you've been at a fairly rapid pace thus far, anyways. But is that how we should think about that excess cash flow that comes in the door?

萬一這場衝突持續時間比計劃的更長，或者比一些人預期的更長，您如何看待由此帶來的額外現金流？這樣做只是為了加快A期貸款的償還速度嗎？總之，到目前為止，你的進度一直相當快。但是，我們應該這樣看待這筆額外的現金流嗎？

Yeah. Our first commitment is to our balance sheet right now. We have, like I said in the opening remarks, we've got $300 million left on the Term Loan A, and that's our first priority for cash. Of course, we're going to monitor things really closely here. Volatility is important.

是的。我們目前的首要任務是專注於資產負債表。正如我在開場白中所說，我們還有 3 億美元的 A 類定期貸款，這是我們現金的第一要務。當然，我們會密切關注事態發展。波動性很重要。

You can have fly-ups, and then you can have reversals depending on how quickly things do change. But obviously, our first priority and commitment is to the balance sheet post-deal. And right now, obviously, this pricing environment is very supportive of that.

你可以經歷快速上升期，然後根據情況變化的速度，可能會出現逆轉。但很顯然，我們首要的任務和承諾是交易後的資產負債表。顯然，目前的定價環境非常有利於這一點。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Rich Sumner.

目前沒有其他問題了。現在我將把電話交給里奇·薩姆納先生。

All right. Well, thank you for your questions and interest in our company. We hope you'll join us in April when we update you on our first-quarter results.

好的。感謝您對我們公司的提問與關注。我們希望您能在四月與我們一起了解第一季的業績。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。