億滋國際 (MDLZ) 2016 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Mondelez International second-quarter 2016 earnings conference call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Mondelez Management and the question-and-answer session.

早安，歡迎參加億滋國際2016年第二季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議預計持續約一小時，包括億滋管理層的演講和問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Brian Gladden, EVP and CFO for Mondelez International. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將把電話交給億滋國際執行副總裁兼財務長布萊恩‧格拉登先生。請您發言，先生。

Great. Thank you, Paula. Good morning, and thanks for joining us. Before we get started, I wanted to take a moment to thank Dexter Congbalay for his many contributions to our Company throughout the years, including most recently running both Treasury and Investor Relations. As most of you know, Dexter will be leaving us this month. He's been a trusted partner. We will wish him the very best, both personally and professionally.

太好了。謝謝你，寶拉。早安，感謝各位的到來。在正式開始之前，我想藉此機會感謝德克斯特·康巴萊多年來對公司的諸多貢獻，包括最近他同時負責財務和投資者關係工作。正如大家所知，德克斯特將於本月離開公司。他一直是值得信賴的合作夥伴。我們衷心祝福他一切順利，無論在個人生活或職業生涯中。

I'd also like to introduce Shep Dunlap, who has joined us as our VP of Investor Relations. Shep brings a great set of skills and experience, and I'm sure you'll enjoy working with him as he settles into his new role here.

我還要介紹一下謝普·鄧拉普，他已加入我們公司擔任投資者關係副總裁。謝普擁有豐富的技能和經驗，我相信在他適應新職位後，您會很樂意與他共事。

With that, let me turn the call over to Shep to get started.

那麼，現在我把電話交給謝普，就讓他開始吧。

Thanks for the introduction, Brian, and I'm happy to be here. Earlier today, we sent out our earnings release and presentation slides, which are also available on our website, MondelezInternational.com. As you know, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the Company's performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially, due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our 10-K and our 10-Q filings for more details on our forward-looking statements.

謝謝布萊恩的介紹，我很高興來到這裡。今天早些時候，我們發布了盈利報告和演示文稿，您也可以訪問我們的網站 MondelezInternational.com 查看。如您所知，在本次電話會議中，我們將對公司績效做出一些前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於我們目前的判斷。由於存在風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。有關前瞻性陳述的更多詳情，請參閱我們 10-K 和 10-Q 文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素。

Some of today's prepared remarks include non-GAAP financial measures. You can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and at the back of the slide position.

今天的部分發言稿中包含非公認會計準則（非GAAP）財務指標。您可以在我們的獲利報告中以及投影片背面找到公認會計準則與非公認會計準則的調整表。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Irene Rosenfeld.

接下來，我將把電話交給我們的董事長兼執行長艾琳·羅森菲爾德。

Thanks, Shep, and good morning. Despite a challenging environment, we continue to deliver solid results, and we're confident in delivering our 2016 outlook and our 2018 margin targets. I'm pleased with the progress made by our teams in reinventing our supply chain, reducing overheads, and reinvesting in growth.

謝謝謝普，早安。儘管面臨挑戰，我們依然取得了穩健的業績，並且有信心實現2016年的業績展望和2018年的利潤目標。我對我們團隊在重塑供應鏈、降低營運成本和重新投資於成長方面取得的進展感到滿意。

Our strategy is working, driving strong near-term margin performance, providing fuel for investment, and positioning us to sustainably deliver top- and bottom-line growth. Long term, we expect our advantage platform -- together with an ongoing focus on growth and margin expansion -- to drive organic net revenue at or above our category rates; double-digit adjusted EPS growth; improving cash generation; and significant return of capital to our shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

我們的策略正在奏效，推動了近期強勁的利潤率表現，為投資提供了動力，並使我們能夠持續實現營收和利潤的成長。從長遠來看，我們預計憑藉自身優勢平台，以及對成長和利潤率提升的持續關注，我們將實現有機淨收入達到或超過同類產品的水平；調整後每股收益實現兩位數增長；現金流狀況不斷改善；並透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還大量資本。

With that as context, let's review the highlights of the second quarter. Organic revenue grew 1.5%, including the negative impact of about 1 point from revenue management actions. Through the first half, our growth rate was 1.9%. Our power brands once again drove our top line, up 3% and in line with global categories.

了解了以上背景後，我們來回顧第二季的亮點。有機收入成長了1.5%，其中包含了約1個百分點的營收管理措施帶來的負面影響。上半年，我們的成長率為1.9%。我們的主力品牌再次成為營收成長的主要驅動力，成長了3%，與全球同類產品持平。

Emerging markets rose nearly 4%, fueled by currency-driven pricing in markets like Argentina and Russia. Developed markets were essentially flat, but delivered another positive quarter of vol/mix, while continuing to significantly expand margins.

新興市場上漲近4%，主要受阿根廷和俄羅斯等市場匯率波動的影響。已開發市場基本持平，但成交量和產品組合連續第二季保持正成長，同時利潤率持續顯著擴大。

Our overall share performance was not yet where we wanted it to be, but we began to see meaningful improvements in a number of key markets, like chocolate in the UK, Germany, Australia, and India, as well as biscuits in Europe and globally across our gum and candy business. This progress was partially offset by declines in some large markets, such as US biscuits and Brazil, where our near-term share positions were negatively impacted by aggressive competitive trade promotions. Brian will discuss market share in more detail in a moment.

我們的整體市佔率表現尚未達到預期，但我們在一些關鍵市場，例如英國、德國、澳洲和印度的巧克力市場，以及歐洲和全球口香糖及糖果業務的餅乾市場，開始看到顯著改善。然而，這些進展被一些大型市場的下滑部分抵消，例如美國餅乾市場和巴西市場，在這些市場，我們近期的市場份額受到競爭對手激進的促銷活動的負面影響。布萊恩稍後將更詳細地討論市場份額問題。

Adjusted OI margin for the second quarter was strong, up 210 basis points versus prior year. Cost control has now become embedded in our culture, and we're firing on all cylinders, both in supply chain, as well as in overheads. These first-half results position us well for the full year. Our focus on cost enables us to expand margins while continuing to fuel growth. In that spirit, let me take you through two exciting opportunities that will be important drivers going forward.

第二季調整後營業利益率表現強勁，較上年同期成長210個基點。成本控制已深深融入我們的企業文化，我們在供應鏈和管理費用方面都全力以赴。上半年的業績為我們全年的發展奠定了良好的基礎。我們對成本的重視使我們能夠在擴大利潤率的同時，繼續推動成長。基於此，我將向您介紹兩個令人振奮的機遇，它們將成為未來發展的重要驅動力。

First, we are delighted to announce the launch of our Milka brand into China's $2.8 billion chocolate market. This is a prime example of our growth strategy in action. As we've discussed, most of our emerging markets are one- or two-category countries. We added gum to our leading China biscuit business in the second half of 2012, and today that business generates annual revenue of approximately $200 million. By leveraging a formidable power brand like Milka in a sizable category white space, we see significant potential for chocolate in a market where per-capita consumption is quite low, even by emerging market standards.

首先，我們非常高興地宣布，Milka品牌正式進軍中國價值28億美元的巧克力市場。這正是我們成長策略成功實施的絕佳例證。正如我們之前討論過的，我們的大多數新興市場都只有一兩個類別。 2012年下半年，我們在領先的中國餅乾業務基礎上新增了口香糖產品，如今該業務的年收入約為2億美元。憑藉Milka這樣強大的品牌實力，在巧克力這一巨大的市場空白領域，我們看到了巨大的發展潛力。即使以新興市場的標準來看，中國的人均巧克力消費量也相當低。

We expect our unique brand assets, industry-leading innovation, a new world-class manufacturing facility, and strong sales and marketing capabilities will not only grow our business, but will also accelerate the category. While chocolate in China has recently been challenged, we believe we are well positioned to succeed. Our plans have been presented to customers and we'll enter the market in the next few weeks, well before the critical Chinese New Year season.

我們期望憑藉我們獨特的品牌資產、業界領先的創新能力、世界一流的新生產設施以及強大的銷售和行銷能力，不僅能夠促進自身業務成長，更能加速整個品類的發展。儘管中國巧克力市場近期面臨挑戰，但我們相信我們已做好充分準備迎接挑戰。我們的計劃已提交給客戶，並將於未來幾週內正式進入市場，搶在關鍵的春節銷售旺季之前上市。

Finally, while only a small part of our business today, we have significantly bolstered our capabilities in e-commerce. Although online snacks are relatively underdeveloped, we believe e-commerce will be increasingly important as consumer purchasing behavior changes. Our intent is to capture share in this fast-growing channel by leveraging our strong brands and marketing know-how.

最後，儘管電子商務目前僅占我們業務的一小部分，但我們已大幅提升了在該領域的實力。雖然線上零食市場相對不發達，但我們相信，隨著消費者購買行為的改變，電子商務的重要性將日益凸顯。我們的目標是憑藉強大的品牌和行銷經驗，在這個快速成長的管道中搶佔市場份額。

Since the start of the year, we've taken a number of steps, including enhancing our infrastructure, adding new experience resources and building capability, strengthening our partnerships with Amazon in the US, Alibaba in China, and with the e-commerce arms of our traditional retailers, as well as accelerating gift offers with personalized packaging and subscriptions on brands like Cadbury in the UK. Early results are very encouraging. In the first half, we grew our e-commerce revenue by more than 30%. Looking ahead, our goal is snacking leadership in e-commerce and over $1 billion in sales by 2020. The launch of chocolate in China and our progress in e-commerce are just two examples of investments that are continuing to build and transform our advantage platform.

自年初以來，我們採取了一系列舉措，包括增強基礎設施、增加新的體驗資源和提升能力、加強與美國亞馬遜、中國阿里巴巴以及傳統零售商電商部門的合作，並加快推出個性化包裝和訂閱服務等禮品產品，例如在英國銷售的吉百利等品牌。初步成果令人鼓舞。上半年，我們的電商收入成長超過30%。展望未來，我們的目標是到2020年成為零食電商領域的領導者，並實現超過10億美元的銷售額。在中國推出巧克力產品以及我們在電商領域的進展，只是我們持續投資以建構和轉型優勢平台的兩個例證。

Looking ahead, there's no question that the environment remains challenging, especially in emerging markets. We remain focused on what we can control -- margin and share. To that end, we are taking a number of actions that will impact the second half. These include: increased A&C on our power brands; targeted investments in trade spending to narrow price gaps in key markets; several significant innovation launches, including chocolate in China; and continued expansion of our routes to market, including e-commerce; all while continuing to drive cost reduction across the Enterprise. We remain confident in our strategy and execution to grow both our top and bottom lines over the long term, and to create significant value for our shareholders.

展望未來，毫無疑問，市場環境依然充滿挑戰，尤其是在新興市場。我們將繼續專注於我們能夠掌控的因素——利潤率和市場份額。為此，我們正在採取一系列措施，這些措施將對下半年業績產生影響。這些措施包括：增加對旗下主力品牌的廣告和成本控制；有針對性地增加貿易支出，以縮小關鍵市場的價格差距；推出多項重大創新產品，包括在中國推出巧克力產品；以及持續拓展市場管道，包括電子商務；同時，我們將繼續在全公司範圍內降低成本。我們對自身的策略和執行力充滿信心，相信能夠實現長期營收和利潤的成長，並為股東創造顯著價值。

Before I close, I know many of you would like an update on the potential transaction with Hershey. While I can confirm that we did make an offer to Hershey, as you would expect regarding any potential M&A activity, we have no additional comments to make.

在結束演講之前，我知道很多人都想了解與好時公司潛在交易的最新進展。我可以確認我們確實向好時公司提出了收購要約，但正如大家在任何潛在的併購活動中都會預料到的那樣，我們沒有其他補充說明。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Brian.

接下來，我將把電話交給布萊恩。

Thanks, Irene. We had solid financial results for the second quarter and the first half of the year. Specifically, we delivered another quarter of strong adjusted OI margin expansion and earnings growth. Adjusted gross margin of over 40% was flat in Q2, as the negative impact of mark to market, as well as currency-driven inflation, offset another quarter of strong net productivity.

謝謝艾琳。我們第二季和上半年的財務表現表現穩健。具體而言，我們再次實現了強勁的調整後營業利潤率擴張和獲利成長。第二季調整後毛利率維持在40%以上，與上季持平，原因是市值計價的負面影響以及匯率波動導致的通膨抵消了淨生產力的強勁成長。

In fact, our efforts to reinvent our supply chain and deploy advantage manufacturing lines of the future continued to drive margin benefits, as we delivered net productivity of better than 3.5% for the first half. Q2 adjusted OI margin was 15.2%, up 210 basis points. This was largely driven by the ongoing ZBB impact on our overheads, and especially our execution on shared-service initiatives. In addition, the margin expansion included some one-time favorable impacts from asset sales in North America. These proceeds more or less offset the negative impacts of mark to market and the costs of our US labor-related business continuity planning.

事實上，我們重塑供應鏈並部署面向未來的優勢生產線的努力持續推動利潤率提升，上半年淨生產力成長超過3.5%。第二季調整後營業利益率為15.2%，成長210個基點。這主要得益於零基預算對營運成本的持續影響，尤其是我們共享服務計畫的有效實施。此外，利潤率的提升還包括北美資產出售帶來的一次性利好。這些收益基本上抵消了按市值計價帶來的負面影響以及美國勞動力相關業務連續性計劃的成本。

We're pleased with our first-half margin performance and are slightly ahead of our plan as our cost execution has exceeded expectations. We're also investing in additional A&C and selected incremental trade spending during the second half to support top-line growth and improve share.

我們對上半年的利潤率表現感到滿意，並且由於成本控制超出預期，實際業績略高於預期。下半年，我們還將增加對廣告和相關業務以及部分新增貿易支出的投入，以支持營收成長並提升市場份額。

Let me now provide some color on regional performance for both revenue and margins. North America had a very solid -- a very strong margin quarter. Adjusted OI margins expanded by 470 basis points, driven by strong productivity, overhead cost reductions, as well as the previously mentioned asset sale benefit, offset somewhat by the US labor business continuity planning costs.

現在讓我來詳細分析一下各地區的營收和利潤率表現。北美地區的業績非常穩健，利潤率也十分強勁。經調整後的營業利潤率成長了470個基點，這主要得益於生產效率的提高、管理費用的降低以及先前提到的資產出售收益，但部分被美國勞動力業務連續性計劃成本所抵消。

We grew organic revenue nearly 1%, driven by vol/mix increases. Escalated trade spending by our competitors negatively affected our short-term results. Overall, biscuits were up only modestly, but Oreo, belVita, and Triscuit all delivered solid consumption growth. Candy posted strong results, driven by Sour Patch Kids and Halls. In gum, Trident turned in another quarter of solid performance, and we began the relaunch of Stride late in the quarter, which should improve shares in the months ahead. As Irene mentioned, we have several strong programs in place to better position us for the second half.

受銷售量和產品組合提升的推動，我們的有機收入成長近1%。競爭對手不斷增加的貿易支出對我們的短期業績產生了負面影響。總體而言，餅乾業務成長幅度不大，但奧利奧、belVita 和 Triscuit 的消費量均實現了穩健成長。糖果業務表現強勁，主要得益於 Sour Patch Kids 和 Halls 的出色表現。在口香糖方面，Trident 再次保持了良好的季度業績，我們在本季末啟動了 Stride 的重新上市，預計未來幾個月其市場份額將有所提升。正如 Irene 所提到的，我們已製定多項強有力的計劃，以更好地為下半年做好準備。

Europe also had an outstanding margin quarter, with adjusted OI margin of 350 basis points, to 18%, driven by strong productivity and lower overheads. Organic revenue in Europe was essentially flat, although here, too, we're seeing a nice progression in vol/mix and share trends. Both our chocolate and biscuit categories delivered strong results in the UK and Germany, which helped grow vol/mix by 70 basis points for the region. Building on last year's launch in the UK, we also launched Ritz Crisp & Thin crackers in France, which is delivering good results, as we take the brand to a new consumption occasion.

歐洲本季利潤率表現同樣出色，經調整後的營業利潤率提升350個基點，達到18%，這主要得益於生產效率的提升和營運成本的降低。歐洲的有機收入基本上持平，但銷售/產品組合和市場份額的趨勢也呈現良好成長。我們的巧克力和餅乾類別在英國和德國均取得了強勁的業績，推動該地區的銷售/產品組合成長了70個基點。繼去年在英國成功推出之後，我們也在法國推出了Ritz Crisp & Thin薄脆餅乾，並取得了良好的銷售業績，成功將品牌拓展到新的消費場景。

In EMEA, adjusted OI margins were flat, driven by weaker demand and the resulting volume leverage impact. Organic revenue declined more than 2%, driven by a slowdown in the Middle East and North Africa, where economic and geopolitical volatility, including the impact of low oil prices, is having a more pronounced effect on consumer demand. A very weak Ramadan season in the Middle East also tempered the top line. Despite that backdrop, Russia turned in a solid performance, growing low-double digits as a result of pricing actions to offset inflation.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，經調整後的營業利潤率持平，主要受需求疲軟及其導致的銷售槓桿效應影響。有機收入下降超過2%，主要原因是中東和北非地區的經濟放緩，這些地區的經濟和地緣政治波動，包括低油價的影響，對消費需求造成了更顯著的衝擊。中東地區齋戒月期間的疲軟銷售也抑制了營收成長。儘管面臨上述挑戰，俄羅斯市場表現穩健，由於採取了價格措施以抵消通膨，實現了兩位數的低成長。

In Asia-Pacific, our adjusted OI margins were up 190 basis points, driven by improved overheads, strong productivity, and pricing. Organic revenue increased 2% and vol/mix was positive, up more than 1%. This is our fifth consecutive order of growth in Asia. India benefited from the launch of Bournvita biscuits, which addresses consumers' growing need for a morning snack under a well-known brand that delivers taste and nutrition. Chocolate also generated solid gains.

在亞太地區，經調整後的營業利潤率提升了190個基點，主要得益於營運成本的降低、生產效率的提高以及定價策略的最佳化。有機收入成長了2%，銷量和產品組合均實現了正成長，增幅超過1%。這是我們在亞洲連續第五年實現成長。印度市場受益於Bournvita餅乾的上市，該產品滿足了消費者對兼具美味和營養的知名品牌早餐零食日益增長的需求。巧克力產品也取得了穩健的成長。

Australia was also strong, while Southeast Asia was up for the third straight quarter. Our Kinh Do business in Vietnam continues to be a bright spot. Our teams are executing well as we integrate this business, which provides a platform to drive our power brands through its distribution network of 130,000 outlets. China declined low-single digits, as the biscuit category slowed and we lapped last year's Trident gum launch. While overall China consumer demand has recently slowed, we believe longer-term dynamics will improve, as evidenced by our significant investment in chocolate that Irene discussed earlier.

澳洲市場表現強勁，東南亞市場連續第三季實現成長。我們在越南的京都業務持續表現亮眼。我們的團隊在整合這項業務方面執行得非常出色，京都擁有13萬個銷售網點的分銷網絡，為我們推廣旗下強勢品牌提供了平台。中國市場出現個位數下滑，主要原因是餅乾類別成長放緩，以及我們去年推出的Trident口香糖銷量超過了去年同期。儘管近期中國整體消費需求有所放緩，但我們相信長期來看市場動態將會改善，正如Irene先前提到的，我們對巧克力領域的巨額投資就證明了這一點。

In Latin America, adjusted OI margins declined 210 basis points. Difficult economic conditions in Brazil pressured margins in the form of currency and volume headwinds. Latin America organic revenue grew nearly 9%, led by strength in Argentina and Mexico. Argentina grew double digits, primarily due to inflation-driven pricing, while Mexico had a strong first half and continued to gain momentum as strong vol/mix contributed to high-single-digit revenue growth. Brazil declined low-single digits and we see no short-term catalysts for improvement in the Brazilian economy. We're taking actions to close selective price gaps, but we expect the market to remain challenging in terms of both revenue and margins, at least through the second half.

在拉丁美洲，經調整後的未平倉合約利潤率下降了210個基點。巴西嚴峻的經濟情勢，包括匯率波動和銷售下滑，對利潤率造成了壓力。拉丁美洲有機收入成長近9%，主要得益於阿根廷和墨西哥的強勁表現。阿根廷實現了兩位數成長，主要歸功於通膨推動的價格上漲；墨西哥上半年表現強勁，並在銷量和產品組合的強勁推動下，繼續保持增長勢頭，實現了接近兩位數的收入增長。巴西的成長率下降了接近兩位數，我們認為短期內巴西經濟沒有改善的催化劑。我們正在採取措施縮小部分價格差距，但預計至少在下半年，市場在收入和利潤率方面仍將面臨挑戰。

Let me spend a moment providing a few highlights by category. In aggregate, categories have slowed to about 3% year to date, driven by key emerging markets like Brazil, China, and India. Our global biscuits business grew nearly 2%, with strength in the UK, in the US, and Germany. Oreo led the way, growing high-single digits. In addition, we're continuing to drive our well-being portfolio, belVita grew high-single digits globally, while our Good Thins innovation in the US also posted solid results. While our biscuit share has been challenged in some key markets, we have a number of actions underway to address the issue.

讓我花點時間按品類介紹幾個亮點。整體而言，各品類今年迄今成長放緩至約3%，主要由巴西、中國和印度等新興市場推動。我們的全球餅乾業務成長近2%，其中英國、美國和德國市場表現強勁。奧利奧領跑，實現了接近兩位數的成長。此外，我們持續推進健康產品組合，belVita在全球範圍內實現了接近兩位數的成長，而我們在美國推出的Good Thins創新產品也取得了穩健的業績。雖然我們在一些關鍵市場的餅乾市佔率面臨挑戰，但我們正在採取多項措施來應對這個問題。

In the US, we're innovating across several winning biscuit platforms, while investing incremental trade spending behind our DSD execution. In Brazil, we are investing in additional advertising and consumer support, while selectively narrowing price gaps on key SKUs. Our focus remains on improving our share position. We expect the incremental actions we are taking will improve our share position in the second half.

在美國，我們正圍繞著多個成功的餅乾平台進行創新，同時增加對直接送貨上門（DSD）策略的投入。在巴西，我們正加大廣告投入和消費者支持力度，並選擇性地縮小關鍵產品的價格差距。我們始終專注於提升市場佔有率。我們預計，這些逐步推進的舉措將在下半年提升我們的市場佔有率。

Chocolate grew more than 2%, driven by solid results in India, Australia, and the UK. Also in the quarter, Germany continued to deliver strong growth, as we lapped last year's revenue management actions. More than one-half of our revenue in chocolate grew share. Gum and candy increased nearly 2%, led by solid performance in the US and Mexico. About one-half of our revenue in this category gained or held share.

巧克力業務成長超過2%，主要得益於印度、澳洲和英國市場的強勁表現。此外，德國市場在本季也維持了強勁成長，這得益於我們成功超越了去年同期的營收管理措施。巧克力業務收入中超過一半實現了市場份額成長。口香糖和糖果業務成長近2%，主要得益於美國和墨西哥市場的優異表現。該類別中約一半的收入實現了市場份額增長或保持穩定。

Now turning to earnings per share. For Q2, our adjusted EPS was up more than 4% on a constant-currency basis, which includes the impact of coffee dilution. And then for the first half, adjusted EPS increased 17% on a constant-currency basis. Operating gains of $0.15 were the primary driver of the improvement. Below the line, adjusted EPS declined $0.01, as dilution from last year's coffee deal more than offset benefits from lower share count, taxes, and interest expense. Note that this will be the last quarter of coffee dilution as we lap the close of last year's coffee transactions. I would note that both JDE and Keurig performed well in the quarter and contributed some upside versus our expectations.

現在來看每股收益。第二季度，我們調整後的每股盈餘以固定匯率計算成長超過4%，這其中包含了咖啡業務稀釋的影響。上半年，調整後的每股盈餘以固定匯率計算成長了17%。 0.15美元的營業收益是成長的主要驅動力。然而，由於去年咖啡交易帶來的稀釋效應超過了股本減少、稅收和利息支出帶來的好處，調整後的每股盈餘下降了0.01美元。需要注意的是，這將是咖啡業務稀釋效應的最後一個季度，因為我們將完成去年咖啡交易的結算。值得一提的是，JDE和Keurig在本季表現良好，並超出了我們的預期。

In the second quarter, we delivered more than $500 million of free cash flow and improved our cash conversion cycle by 20 days, to minus 4 days. Returning capital to our shareholders remains a priority for us and we've returned more than $1.8 billion to shareholders through the first half. We've repurchased more than $1.3 billion in our shares at an average price of $41.07, and we continue to target $2 billion in share repurchases for the year. Last week, we also announced a 12% increase in our quarterly dividend. Dividends remain an important part of our capital return strategy, as we target a payout of at least 30%. Since the spin, we have returned nearly $13 billion of cash to shareholders.

第二季度，我們實現了超過5億美元的自由現金流，並將現金週轉週期縮短了20天，達到負4天。向股東返還資本仍是我們的首要任務，上半年我們已向股東返還了超過18億美元。我們以平均每股41.07美元的價格回購了超過13億美元的股票，並持續維持全年20億美元的股票回購目標。上週，我們也宣布將季度股利提高12%。股息仍然是我們資本回報策略的重要組成部分，我們的目標是至少派發30%的股息。自分拆以來，我們已向股東返還了近130億美元的現金。

Let's take a closer look at our current outlook. As you've heard today, we feel good about our first-half results and expect continued strong performance in the second half, despite the macro backdrop, especially in the emerging markets. Specifically, we now expect the following for 2016. We've modestly reduced our organic net revenue growth outlook to approximately 2% from at least 2%. This reflects the increasing challenges we're seeing in global categories, and includes about 100 basis points from revenue management actions. We continue to expect adjusted OI margin of 15% to 16% and are increasingly confident in delivering this commitment.

讓我們更詳細地看一下我們目前的展望。正如您今天所聽到的，我們對上半年的業績感到滿意，並預計下半年業績將繼續保持強勁，儘管宏觀經濟環境，尤其是在新興市場，仍將如此。具體而言，我們現在對2016年的預期如下：我們將有機淨收入成長預期從至少2%略微下調至約2%。這反映了我們在全球品類中面臨的日益嚴峻的挑戰，並包含了約100個基點的收入管理措施。我們仍預期調整後的營業利潤率在15%至16%之間，並且越來越有信心實現這一目標。

As you think about the second half, we expect heavier investments in the third quarter, which would lead to higher margins in the fourth quarter. We continue to expect double-digit growth in adjusted EPS on a constant-currency basis. Our view now includes an incremental $0.03 to $0.05 versus our last outlook due to solid operating performance, lower interest expense, and strong performance in our coffee joint ventures.

展望下半年，我們預計第三季將加大投資力度，這將提升第四季的利潤率。我們依然預期以固定匯率計算的調整後每股盈餘將達到兩位數成長。由於穩健的營運績效、較低的利息支出以及咖啡合資企業的優異表現，我們目前的預期較先前的預測增加了0.03至0.05美元。

Unfortunately, based on recent spot rates, this upside will be mostly offset by currency. We expect currency to be a 4-point headwind to revenue growth, up from 3 points. And for adjusted EPS, we estimate an $0.08 headwind, up from $0.05. This also includes our view of the Brexit impact on our results, which is limited to an approximate $0.02 headwind related to the currency translation impact on our UK-based earnings. Our net transaction exposure is very limited, as we buy a majority of our global cocoa needs in British pounds, which offsets net transaction exposure in the UK. So, to summarize our EPS outlook, the upside we're seeing in EPS allows us to fully offset the negative impact of currency changes, including Brexit. Finally, we still expect free cash flow excluding items of at least $1.4 billion.

遺憾的是，根據近期的即期匯率，這項利多因素將被匯率波動抵銷。我們預期匯率波動將對營收成長造成4個百分點的負面影響，高於先前預期的3個百分點。對於調整後的每股盈餘，我們預期匯率波動將造成0.08美元的負面影響，高於先前預期的0.05美元。這其中也包含了我們對英國脫歐影響的預期，即匯率折算對我們英國業務收益的影響約為0.02美元。由於我們大部分的全球可可需求都以英鎊採購，這抵消了我們在英國的淨交易風險敞口，因此我們的淨交易風險敞口非常有限。綜上所述，我們預期每股盈餘的利多因素足以完全抵消匯率波動（包括英國脫歐）帶來的負面影響。最後，我們仍然預期不計特殊項目的自由現金流至少為14億美元。

So, to wrap up, we're pleased with our results in the first half: we delivered significant margin expansion, while continuing to invest behind our power brands; our vol/mix performance continued to improve; and we returned $1.8 billion to shareholders. While we remain cautious about the challenging operating environment, we're confident in our ability to deliver on our top- and bottom-line targets, and we remain on track to reach our adjusted OI margin target of 17% to 18% in 2018.

綜上所述，我們對上半年的業績感到滿意：我們實現了顯著的利潤率提升，同時持續加大對旗下強勢品牌的投入；銷量和產品組合表現持續改善；並向股東返還了18億美元。儘管我們對充滿挑戰的經營環境仍保持謹慎，但我們有信心實現營收和利潤目標，並預計在2018年實現17%至18%的調整後營業利潤率目標。

With that, let's open it up for questions.

那麼，接下來就進入提問環節。

(Operator instructions)

（操作說明）

Chris Growe, Stifel.

Chris Growe，Stifel。

Hi, good morning/

您好，早安。

Hey, Chris.

嘿，克里斯。

Hi. I had just two questions, if I could, to start off. The first question I wanted to ask was in relation to your developed versus developing market growth. This quarter seemed to show a little softer growth in developed markets, actually. I had expected a little bit of pressure on Brazil and some of those markets and you've certainly cited those.

您好。如果可以的話，我先有兩個問題。第一個問題是關於您公司已開發市場與發展中市場的成長。實際上，本季已開發市場的成長似乎略有放緩。我預料到巴西和其他一些市場會面臨一些壓力，您也確實提到了這些市場。

But overall emerging market growth was about consistent with where it was in the first quarter. Do you expect that to weaken a bit as we go through the second half, as some of these markets are more challenged? And is it developed markets then pick up a little bit in the second half of the year from where they are currently?

但整體而言，新興市場的成長與第一季基本持平。您預計隨著下半年的到來，部分新興市場面臨更多挑戰，其成長速度是否會放緩？已開發市場在下半年是否會從目前的水準略有回升？

Actually, Chris, you have to separate -- your assessment about emerging markets is correct, obviously. We're feeling like having watched what's happening, particularly in Brazil, we're seeing more softness there than we had anticipated. But I'd say in our developed markets, it's really all about North America.

克里斯，其實你需要分開來看——你對新興市場的評估顯然是正確的。我們觀察了正在發生的事情，尤其是在巴西，感覺那裡的經濟疲軟程度超出了我們的預期。但就我們已開發市場而言，我認為真正的問題都出在北美。

Europe is actually continuing to improve sequentially. We're seeing strong vol/mix performance. We're seeing nice performance on share. The big change is really on our US biscuit business, where as we mentioned, we saw some very aggressive trade spending from some of our competition.

歐洲市場實際上持續較上季改善。銷售量和產品組合表現強勁，市佔率也表現良好。最大的變化主要體現在美國的餅乾業務上，正如我們之前提到的，一些競爭對手加大了貿易投入。

It is not helping to grow the category, but we certainly are responding. I would tell you, even in the early couple of weeks in July, we're starting to see that business come back. So net/net, we do expect our developed markets to continue to show strong performance in terms of vol/mix improvement, as well as share.

雖然這不利於品類成長，但我們確實在積極應對。我可以告訴大家，即使在七月初的頭幾週，我們也開始看到業務回升。因此，總的來說，我們預計已開發市場在銷售/產品組合改善以及市場份額方面將繼續保持強勁表現。

But we are -- our overall forecast continues to be somewhat muted because the aggregate category growth, which we had thought would be in the 3% to 4% range is below the lower end of that range. That's really what's driving our forecast.

但是，我們的整體預測仍然較為保守，因為我們原本預期的3%至4%的整體品類成長率會低於該區間的下限。這才是真正影響我們預測的原因。

The other thing I would add, Chris, is just emerging -- the growth was similar in Q1 and Q2, but the quality in terms of vol/mix got better, so it's not nearly as price-driven as it was in the first quarter.

克里斯，我還要補充一點，這一點正在顯現——第一季和第二季的成長情況類似，但銷量/組合方面的品質有所提高，因此它遠不如第一季度那樣受價格驅動。

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you for that color. A quick question for you then on the guidance. Obviously, the revenue growth guidance has moderated a bit and so has the SKU rationalization -- expectation or activity there.

好的，這很有幫助。謝謝您提供的資訊。關於業績指引，我還有一個問題。顯然，營收成長預期有所下調，SKU精簡計畫——無論是預期還是實際操作——也都有所減少。

On the margin side, are you seeing a little better margin? We were pushing more towards the low end of that range. Is 15% to 16% now a better range, if you will, versus the low-end for your operating margin in 2016?

利潤率方面，您覺得利潤率是否有改善？我們之前一直處於利潤率區間的下限。您認為現在15%到16%的區間，比起2016年營業利益率的下限，是否更適合？

Yes, I wouldn't change, Chris, the view. We feel really good about the first half. As I said, we're a bit ahead on the cost execution. Given the dynamics in the market, clearly it's a volatile environment.

是的，克里斯，我不會改變我的看法。我們對上半年的業績非常滿意。正如我所說，我們在成本控制方面略有優勢。考慮到當前的市場動態，這顯然是一個動盪的環境。

We are planning to invest back, probably more than we would have expected in the first half of the year in the second half to drive some improvement in those shares and the growth. So we feel good with where we are. We're not really changing the outlook on margins and being at 15%-plus for the first half gives us confidence for sure, but we're going to invest.

我們計劃在下半年加大投資力度，可能會超過上半年的預期，以推動股價和成長。因此，我們對目前的狀況感到滿意。我們並沒有改變對利潤率的預期，上半年超過15%的利潤率無疑給了我們信心，但我們仍將繼續投資。

Okay. Thanks so much for your time.

好的。非常感謝您抽出時間。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝你，克里斯。

Bryan Spillane, Bank of America.

布萊恩·斯皮蘭，美國銀行。

Hey. Good morning, everyone.

嘿，大家早安。

Hey, Bryan.

嘿，布萊恩。

Wanted to ask a more broad question about capital allocation, and completely understanding that you can't talk specifically about Hershey. But one question that we've fielded quite a bit over the last few weeks has been, just from a broader perspective, Irene, that you are at a point now where you're considering doing a relatively good-sized acquisition. Can you just talk to how you get to that point?

我想問一個關於資本配置的更廣泛的問題，完全理解您不能具體談論好時公司的情況。但過去幾週我們收到很多關於這個問題的提問，Irene，從更宏觀的角度來看，您現在正在考慮進行一次規模較大的收購。您能談談您是如何做出這個決定的嗎？

Is it because the Company is at a point now where you feel like you're ready to make a -- can take on a transaction like that? Does it make a statement about what you think maybe the medium- or longer-term outlook is for the some of the categories given what's changed in emerging markets? Just some context or color in terms of how you got to the point where you are ready to at least contemplate potentially making a large transaction?

是因為公司現在發展到您認為可以進行此類交易的階段了嗎？這是否反映了您對某些類別在中長期前景的看法，尤其是在新興市場變化的情況下？能否提供一些背景資訊或細節，說明您是如何走到今天這一步，並開始考慮進行此類大型交易的？

Bryan, our capital allocation strategy has that changed. As I said in my remarks, I have no additional comments on the Hershey situation.

布萊恩，我們的資本配置策略已經改變了。正如我剛才所說，我對好時公司的情況沒有其他補充評論。

Okay. Thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Thanks, Bryan.

謝謝你，布萊恩。

Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

安德魯·拉扎爾，巴克萊銀行。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

Hey, Andrew.

嘿，安德魯。

Two things for me. One, the move into China with the Milka brand. My question there is following on to Bryan's really is more about timing. Why is now the right time for something like that? Are there capabilities now that you didn't have before that you have now?

對我來說有兩件事。第一，是帶著Milka品牌進軍中國市場。我的問題其實是接著Bryan的提問，更著重在時機。為什麼現在是進軍中國市場的好時機？你們現在是否具備了以前不具備的能力？

Is it there's more clarity on productivity efforts that enable investment at this point? I'm really trying to get a better read on the timing of this announcement because obviously the white space here in China in the chocolate has been around for quite some time?

目前是否有更清晰的生產力提升方案來促進投資？我真的很想更能理解這項公告的時機，因為很明顯，中國巧克力市場的空白期已經存在相當長一段時間了。

We have been planning this for some time, as you said, and one of the most important poles in that tent is local production. We have a factory now up and running in Suzhou and it is ready to go.

正如您所說，我們為此籌劃已久，而其中最重要的支柱之一就是在地化生產。我們目前在蘇州的工廠已經投產，一切都準備就緒。

We have continued to monitor the marketplace to understand the opportunities, both in terms of our portfolio, as well as in our channels. Obviously, e-commerce is an important channel for us in China and our partnership with Alibaba is a critical piece of our launch plan.

我們持續關注市場動態，以了解產品組合和通路的機會。顯然，電子商務對我們在中國市場至關重要，而與阿里巴巴的合作是我們市場拓展計畫的關鍵一環。

So it was frankly just the opportunity to get all the various elements together for the launch plan. But we think it is quite representative of the growth opportunity that we see in a number of our emerging markets.

坦白說，這只是一個將各種要素整合起來，制定上市計畫的機會。但我們認為，這很能代表我們在許多新興市場看到的成長機會。

Okay. Then 2Q gross margin came in a little below what we had been modeling. I realize there was less of a benefit from mark-to-market, but gross margin comps do get tougher in the back half and I know this is supposed to be very big year with respect to supply chain efforts and we're seeing some of that come through. So is 2Q the way we should be thinking about gross margin expansion for the next few quarters or are we likely to see the rate of year-over-year change for gross margin improve moving forward?

好的。第二季的毛利率略低於我們先前的預期。我知道市值調整帶來的收益有所減少，但下半年毛利率的同比變化確實會更加明顯，而且我知道今年在供應鏈方面投入了大量精力，我們也看到了一些成效。那麼，第二季的毛利率表現是否代表了我們未來幾季毛利率成長的預期，還是說我們更有可能看到毛利率年增率在未來有所提升？

Andrew, I would say, if you look at the quarter -- maybe I'd start with year-to-date gross margins up 150 basis points, that's mark-to-market. The quarter ex market to market up 70. Developed markets have been very strong on gross margins.

安德魯，我想說，如果你看一下這個季度——或許可以先從年初至今的毛利率增長150個基點說起，這是按市值計價後的毛利率。剔除市值因素後，本季毛利率成長70%。已開發市場的毛利率一直非常強勁。

In the quarter, you would have seen some challenges in terms of keeping up with currency driven inflation in a couple markets. Brazil is a good example. EMEA is a bit of a challenge in terms of volume leverage. I would tell you, as we've said and as we shared in the conferences, this is going to be as much a primarily a gross margin-driven continued margin expansion.

本季度，部分市場在應對匯率波動引發的通膨方面面臨一些挑戰，巴西就是一個很好的例子。歐洲、中東和非洲地區（EMEA）在銷售槓桿方面也存在一些挑戰。正如我們之前所說，並在會議上分享的，這主要將取決於毛利率的持續增長。

The supply chain work that we're doing is still significant. We feel great about that. The net productivity was very strong and gross margin will continue to be a driver of the margin expansion force.

我們目前在供應鏈方面所做的工作仍然意義重大，對此我們感到非常滿意。淨生產力表現強勁，毛利率將繼續成為利潤率擴張的主要驅動力。

Okay. Thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Matthew Grainger, Morgan Stanley.

馬修‧格蘭傑，摩根士丹利。

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the questions. Brian, I wanted to ask first about your revenue management efforts. My sense is that you're still in the relatively early stages of analyzing and starting to unlock some of those efficiencies.

大家早安。感謝大家的提問。布萊恩，我想先問問你們在收益管理上所做的努力。我的感覺是，你們目前還處於分析和挖掘效率提升潛力的初期階段。

So as you talk today about the need to reinvest a bit back into trade US and a few other markets, should we really expect trade optimization to have a meaningful impact on price mix dynamic or margins this year? Or is it something that you're looking at over more of a multi-year time frame?

既然您今天談到需要對美國和其他一些市場的貿易進行一些再投資，我們真的應該期待貿易優化在今年對價格組合動態或利潤率產生實質影響嗎？還是說這是您需要從更長遠的視角來看待的問題？

I wouldn't really change anything from what we've said. It continues to be a large spend for us and a big opportunity. We've mobilized resources, and analytically are better understanding our trade spend now on a global basis. I would say we continue to look for opportunities to more effectively manage that spend.

我並不想改變我們之前所說的任何內容。貿易支出對我們來說仍然是一筆龐大的開支，也是一個巨大的機會。我們已經調動了資源，並且從分析的角度更好地了解了我們在全球範圍內的貿易支出。我認為我們將繼續尋找更有效管理這筆支出的機會。

In some cases, it's going to allow us to reinvest those dollars in important markets where we think that's necessary to drive growth and good margins. And it is really, for us, it's about balancing share and customer relationships and margins and that's going to be an important part of how we manage the overall growth of the business and the margins of the business.

在某些情況下，這將使我們能夠將這些資金再投資到我們認為對推動成長和實現良好利潤率至關重要的重要市場。對我們而言，關鍵在於平衡市場佔有率、客戶關係和利潤率，這將是我們管理業務整體成長和利潤率的重要組成部分。

So nothing's really changed in terms of what we're doing. The activity and the initiative is on track and you'll always see us selectively reinvest trade spend where we have to, where we think that's a prudent decision with good ROI.

所以，就我們正在做的事情而言，實際上並沒有什麼改變。各項活動和計劃都在按計劃進行，您會看到我們始終會選擇性地將貿易支出再投資於我們認為謹慎且能帶來良好投資回報率的地方。

Okay. Thanks, Brian. Just one follow-up on the organic sales trends in Eastern Europe, you mentioned some newer issues emerging in the Middle East and North Africa. Just wondering if the impact from those was amplified by the seasonal timing in the quarter or a difficult comparison? And going forward, into the second half of the year, would you expect the region broadly to return to some level of positive organic sales growth?

好的，謝謝布萊恩。關於東歐的有機銷售趨勢，我還有一個後續問題。您提到中東和北非出現了一些新問題。我想知道這些問題的影響是否是因為季度季節性因素放大，還是因為去年同期數據比較困難？展望下半年，您預期該地區整體有機銷售成長能否恢復到一定水準？

Yes, I would say not a lot of seasonality in that. It's more the macro dynamics in oil prices, political instability, you can go right down the list. Clearly, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Yemen, Syria, those are markets that are challenging, and I would say just consumer demand was down and categories have been down.

是的，我認為這其中季節性因素不多。更多的是受宏觀經濟因素的影響，例如油價波動、政治不穩定等等，不勝枚舉。顯然，沙烏地阿拉伯、奈及利亞、葉門、敘利亞等市場都面臨挑戰，我認為消費者需求下降，各品類的需求都在下滑。

So we do see some signs of stabilization as we look to the second half of the year. And as we talked about, the other elements of that business Eastern Europe, Russia has had done very well and there are parts of Africa that have also done well. So we'll manage it. It's one of the reasons why you saw us take down the overall view on revenue for the total year is that instability and that volatility.

所以，展望下半年，我們確實看到了一些企穩跡象。正如我們之前提到的，東歐、俄羅斯以及非洲部分地區的業務表現都非常出色。因此，我們會妥善應對。這也是我們下調全年營收預期的原因之一，因為市場存在不穩定和波動。

Yes, probably the only seasonality that does have an is Ramadan in the Mideast and it was a slow Ramadan season in large measure, as Brian said, because of the macro environment, driven by lower oil prices. That's volume that doesn't come back. But net/net, our outlook for a number of the other countries is to see continued momentum.

是的，可能唯一有明顯季節性影響的就是中東的齋月，而今年的齋月銷量很低，正如布萊恩所說，這很大程度上是由於宏觀環境，尤其是油價下跌所致。這種銷售損失是無法恢復的。但總的來說，我們對其他一些國家的展望是，成長動能將持續下去。

Okay. Great. Thank you both.

好的，太好了，謝謝你們兩位。

Robert Moskow, Credit Suisse

瑞士信貸羅伯特·莫斯科

Hi. Thanks for the question. This is the second quarter in a row where you've said that you're increasing A&C support, but I'm having a little trouble understanding -- quantifying that and then figuring it out. As a percentage of sales, is it going up? And then you also said you're increasing trade promotion in certain areas.

您好，感謝您的提問。這已經是您連續第二季提到要增加A&C（廣告和客戶支援）方面的投入了，但我不太明白具體是怎麼量化的。它佔銷售額的百分比會上升嗎？另外，您也提到會在某些地區加大貿易促銷。

So maybe I could break it out his way. Internally, are you telling the Organization that were putting more money into marketing than you thought in the beginning of the year, like consumer marketing, and at the same time also more into trade promotion simultaneously? Thanks.

或許我可以換個角度跟他解釋。在公司內部，您是否告知公司，我們在行銷方面的投入比年初預想的要多，包括消費者行銷，同時也在增加貿易促銷方面的投入？謝謝。

Rob, it varies a little bit by market, but overall, we are getting good returns on the A&C investment and that's why we continue to make those investments. Our A&C is above 9% of revenue. You [won't] have visibility to that right now, but we continue to see A&C as a critical driver of our brand equities.

羅布，具體情況會因市場而略有不同，但總體而言，我們在廣告和傳播方面的投資獲得了良好的回報，這也是我們繼續進行這些投資的原因。我們的廣告和傳播支出佔收入的9%以上。你現在可能無法看到具體數據，但我們仍然認為廣告和傳播是我們品牌價值的關鍵驅動因素。

Certainly, as you start to see the recovery in places like the UK, Germany, India, Australia, EU biscuits, it's all reflective of the investments that we're making. So those are the kinds of places that we will continue to make investments, as well as in digital marketing.

當然，隨著英國、德國、印度、澳洲、歐盟等地的市場開始復甦，這都反映了我們正在進行的投資。因此，我們將繼續在這些地區以及數位行銷領域進行投資。

That said, there are selected hot spots that we've talked about, particularly markets like US biscuit and Brazil, where our price gaps are not where we want them to be and so we are going to invest some trades back in that business, but that's not going to be without A&C support to continue to drive the longer term brand equity. So net/net, we are increasing A&C in those places where we feel we're getting an adequate return and that's an important part of our algorithm going forward.

話雖如此，我們之前也討論過一些重點市場，特別是像美國餅乾和巴西這樣的市場，這些市場的價格差距並沒有達到我們的期望。因此，我們將把部分資金重新投入這些業務中，但這離不開廣告和成本控制的支持，以持續提升品牌的長期價值。總而言之，我們會在那些我們認為能夠獲得足夠回報的市場增加廣告和成本控制，而這正是我們未來發展策略的重要組成部分。

Okay. Thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Thanks, Rob.

謝謝你，羅伯。

David Palmer, RBC Capital Markets.

David Palmer，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Thanks. Good morning, everybody. As a follow-up on that trade promotion question and also [turning in] the SKU rationalization, can you provide any specific examples of changes that you've been making? And have your expectations around trade promotion spending changed for this year given the competitive environment you just laid out?

謝謝。大家早安。關於您剛才提到的貿易促銷問題以及SKU精簡計劃，能否提供一些具體的調整案例？鑑於您剛才闡述的競爭環境，您對今年貿易促銷支出的預期是否有所改變？

Yes, for sure, David. The reality is we are seeing a little bit different environment where not only a bit weaker in terms of category growth in some markets, but seeing how competitors play. A couple examples we called that in the discussion are North America in biscuits, and Brazil, where we've seen more aggressive competitive trade spend that's affected our shares and our growth.

是的，沒錯，大衛。現實情況是，我們現在面臨的環境略有不同，不僅某些市場的品類成長放緩，而且競爭對手的策略也發生了變化。我們在討論中舉了幾個例子，例如北美的餅乾市場和巴西市場，在這些市場，競爭對手更積極的貿易支出影響了我們的市場份額和成長。

So that is clearly a place where we're redeploying trade spend. I would say we're finding -- to your first part of your question -- we are finding opportunities to free up some dollars in other trade spending we do across the business and realign it in this market, which is going to be important, given the environment that we're seeing.

所以很明顯，我們正在重新部署貿易支出。關於您問題的第一部分，我想說，我們正在尋找機會，從公司其他領域的貿易支出中騰出一些資金，並將其重新分配到這個市場，鑑於我們目前所看到的市場環境，這一點至關重要。

Are there any specific examples that you can cite that you -- in terms of the bigger buckets have changed with regard to trade promo spending and SKU rationalization?

就貿易促銷支出和 SKU 合理化而言，您能否舉出一些具體的例子，說明在較大的業務領域中，您發生了哪些變化？

SKU rationalization has been ongoing and that's a contributor as much to what we're doing on net productivity and supply chain reinvention. So without getting into specific details on where we might be cutting trade spend or specific accounts, not going to probably get into that.

SKU精簡工作一直在進行，這對我們提高淨生產力和重塑供應鏈也起到了重要作用。因此，我們不打算透露具體細節，例如我們可能會削減哪些貿易支出或特定客戶，敬請見諒。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jason English, Goldman Sachs.

Jason English，高盛集團。

Hey. Good morning, folks. Thank you for the question. I wanted to circle back to Rob Moskow's question in terms of A&C spend. Can you give us the specifics in terms of what advertising within SG&A has done year-to-date and what your expectations for the full year?

大家好，早安。感謝你們的提問。我想再次回答羅伯莫斯科關於廣告和諮詢支出的問題。能否具體說明一下銷售、一般及行政費用中的廣告支出今年迄今的具體情況，以及你們對全年的預期？

Jay, we'll give you that number at the end of the year, as we always do in our 10-K. But again, advertising is an important component of our overall brand equities. We will continue to look to make sure that our share of voice and share market are well aligned, and I've been very clear about where the key markets are where we're making those investments, but we will continue to monitor the returns that we're getting on those investments, both near-term as well as over the longer-term.

傑伊，我們會像往常一樣在年底的10-K報告中提供這個數字。但再次強調，廣告是我們整體品牌資產的重要組成部分。我們將繼續努力確保我們的聲量和市場份額保持良好平衡，我已經非常明確地說明了我們重點投資的市場，但我們會持續關注這些投資的回報，包括短期和長期回報。

Okay. Let me try another one then. Let's talk price real quick. I appreciate the vol/mix has gotten better. Comparisons certainly are more favorable going forward, but price is sliding a little bit. It sounds like you're -- the trajectory of the forward is even weaker, which isn't inconsistent with what we're hearing from other companies. Is that consistent, though, with how you're looking at the world right now?

好的。那我再試試別的。我們先快速聊聊價格。我注意到成交量/組合有所改善。未來的比較數據確實更有利，但價格略有下滑。聽起來您認為未來的走勢甚至更弱，這與其他公司的情況一致。不過，這與您目前對市場的看法一致嗎？

Covering costs with our pricing is critical to our algorithm, as you know, and so it is our intent to continue to price to offset higher input costs, particularly those that are common to industry. Currency, in particular, continues to be a headwind for us in most markets around the world.

如您所知，透過定價覆蓋成本對我們的演算法至關重要，因此我們計劃繼續調整定價策略，以抵消不斷上漲的投入成本，特別是該行業普遍存在的成本。尤其值得注意的是，匯率波動在世界大多數市場仍對我們構成不利影響。

So the key for us as we think about protecting gross margins, as well as continuing to drive our ability to invest in our brands, making sure that we have adequate coverage of our cost is critically important. As the market leader, we typically are the first to increase prices. It does often lead to some temporary dislocation, but it ultimately recovers.

因此，當我們考慮如何保護毛利率以及持續提升品牌投資能力時，確保成本得到充分覆蓋至關重要。身為市場領導者，我們通常會率先提價。這往往會導致一些暫時的市場波動，但最終都會恢復正常。

I talked a lot about -- last year, I talked a lot about our share position in chocolate in general, but particularly in markets like the UK and Germany. It took some time for the consumers to adjust to those new price points and now we're start to see our shares recover. So there's no question there's some short-term dislocation, but our ability to cover costs with our pricing is critical to our overall algorithm.

去年，我多次談到我們在巧克力市場的份額，尤其是在英國和德國等市場。消費者需要一些時間來適應新的價格，現在我們開始看到市場份額回升。因此，短期內出現一些波動是毋庸置疑的，但我們透過定價覆蓋成本的能力對我們的整體策略至關重要。

Got it. Very good.

明白了。很好。

2016, as we've said to you, pricing will be less of a factor than it has been in the past years, but we still do see a couple of the emerging market economies that are going to require that we continue to price.

正如我們之前所說，2016 年定價將不再像過去幾年那麼重要，但我們仍然看到一些新興市場經濟體需要我們繼續進行定價。

Yes, yes. Thank you very much.

是的，是的。非常感謝。

David Driscoll, Citi.

大衛‧德里斯科爾，花旗集團。

Great, thank you, and good morning.

太好了，謝謝，早安。

Hey, David.

嘿，大衛。

Brian, just a minor thing, apologies here. You said $0.08 on the FX impact. Your slide actually says minus $0.09. Did you just misspeak or is -- which one is it? $0.08 or $0.09?

布萊恩，有個小問題，不好意思。你說外匯影響是 0.08 美元，但你的幻燈片上寫的是負 0.09 美元。你是說錯了嗎？到底是哪個？ 0.08 美元還是 0.09 美元？

It is $0.08 and if the slide is wrong, we will get it fixed.

價格是 0.08 美元，如果幻燈片有問題，我們會進行修正。

No worries. It's minor. Just want to make sure I'm writing the right things here. The big picture, I'd just like to go back to the capital allocation and just at least give it a try, see what you think of this question. But if the margin upside is as good as laid out, and if there is more to come after 2018, why not just take the capital and buy back stock and execute the margin improvement program?

別擔心，這只是個小問題。我只是想確保我在這裡寫的內容正確。總的來說，我只是想回到資本配置的問題上來，至少嘗試一下，看看你對這個問題有什麼看法。但如果利潤率提升空間真像預期的那麼大，而且2018年後還有更大的成長空間，為什麼不直接用這些資金回購股票，然後執行利潤率提升計畫呢？

Wouldn't a large acquisition require the sale of equity, which is presumably under-earning right now? And then, I just wanted to say, Irene, that I'm really trying to make this not a Hershey question and I totally understand your sensitivity. I'm really trying to focus on the margin potential side of this and how big is that margin potential over time?

大規模收購不需要出售股權嗎？而這些股權目前的收益可能並不理想。另外，艾琳，我想說的是，我真的不想把這個問題和好時公司扯上關係，我也完全理解你的敏感。我真正想關注的是利潤率潛力，以及隨著時間的推移，這個利潤率潛力究竟有多大？

Then lastly, I'd just note that this builds on the big margin changes that we've seen at the peers with some announcement for bigger margin expectations having just got rolled out. So it's incredibly topical. Thank you.

最後，我想指出，這建立在同行公司利潤率大幅變化的基礎上，而且一些公司剛剛發布了更高的利潤率預期。所以，這非常具有現實意義。謝謝。

David, we really believe our point of difference versus other companies is our ability to grow on both the top and the bottom line. We have an advantaged set of assets, both in terms of our brand portfolio, our routes to market, as well as in our overall geographic footprint, and we will continue to invest in those assets to drive long-term growth.

大衛，我們堅信，我們與其他公司最大的區別在於我們能夠同時實現營收和利潤的雙重成長。我們在品牌組合、市場通路以及全球佈局方面都擁有許多優勢，我們將繼續投資這些優勢，以推動長期成長。

In the near-term, and frankly, over the longer-term, the funding source for those investments will come from continued margin expansion. As you rightly point out, we see opportunity, as you've heard from us this morning, we continue to see opportunities to deliver margins in the 17% to 18% range in 2018 and certainly we will continue to see opportunities beyond that.

短期內，坦白說，從長遠來看，這些投資的資金來源將來自利潤率的持續成長。正如您所指出的，我們看到了機遇，正如您今天早上聽到的，我們仍然認為有機會在2018年實現17%至18%的利潤率，而且我們肯定會繼續看到更高的利潤率。

So margin remains the source of expansion, as to the bottom line, as well as the source of funding for us to continue to invest in our brand franchises. Even as our global categories have slowed, snacking categories are growing at a much faster rate than other food and we continue to see the long-term potential of investing in that growth opportunity.

因此，利潤率仍是公司擴張與獲利的源泉，也是我們持續投資旗下品牌特許經營權的資金來源。儘管我們的全球品類成長放緩，但零食品類的成長速度遠超其他食品，我們仍看好投資這項成長機會的長期潛力。

Okay. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

好的，我就說到這裡。謝謝。

Thanks, David.

謝謝你，大衛。

Alexia Howard, Bernstein Research

Alexia Howard，伯恩斯坦研究公司

Hi. This is Matt Ramirez standing in for Alexia. Good morning. Thanks for the question. I was just wondering if you could just give us a brief update on your China business? You mentioned the initiative of launching chocolate there now. Basically, it's broad size within the APAC segment, is its profitability broadly in line with the segment profitability we see? Just general color in the China business would be nice? Thank you.

您好。我是Matt Ramirez，代替Alexia。早安.感謝您的提問。我想請您簡單介紹一下您在中國的業務狀況。您提到了目前正在中國推出巧克力產品的計畫。目前，中國市場在亞太地區佔據了相當大的規模，其獲利能力是否與我們觀察到的亞太地區整體獲利能力基本一致？能否請您就中國業務的整體情況做個簡要介紹？謝謝。

China is an important market for us. We have some of the most attractive gross margins in that market of any of the emerging market in the world, but there is no question that the economy has weakened and that's contributed to slower growth of our categories. So we have continued to selectively invest in marketing support in our power brands, and in particular in e-commerce, as the fastest growth in e-commerce is occurring in China.

中國對我們來說是一個重要的市場。我們在中國市場的毛利率在所有新興市場中名列前茅，但毫無疑問，中國經濟已經走弱，這導致我們各個品類的成長放緩。因此，我們持續有選擇地加大對旗下主力品牌的行銷投入，尤其是在電子商務領域，因為中國是電子商務成長最快的地區。

We actually see close to 10% of snacks being purchased online and it is one of the drivers of the partnership that we have struck with Alibaba. So we really believe that the strong programming we have on our core franchises, biscuits and gum, together with the launch of China, will help us to continue the momentum in that market.

我們發現，近10%的零食是透過線上管道購買的，這也是我們與阿里巴巴合作的重要原因之一。因此，我們堅信，憑藉我們在核心產品——餅乾和口香糖——上製定的強有力的推廣計劃，以及進軍中國市場的舉措，將有助於我們繼續保持在中國市場的成長勢頭。

But near-term, we do remain cautious given the economy. But there's no question as we look at the long-term profile, the growing middle class, the urbanization of the population, and the opportunity for continued distribution gains, China will continue to be an important part of our growth story.

但就短期而言，鑑於當前的經濟狀況，我們仍保持謹慎。但毫無疑問，從長遠來看，隨著中產階級的壯大、人口的城市化進程以及持續擴大分配規模的機遇，中國將繼續成為我們成長故事的重要組成部分。

But any ballpark numbers for profitability that you can share?

能否分享一下大致的獲利數字？

We are not providing profitability by country.

我們不提供各國獲利狀況數據。

All right. Okay. Thank you.

好的，謝謝。

John Baumgartner, Wells Fargo.

約翰·鮑姆加特納，富國銀行。

Good morning. Thank you.

早安.謝謝。

Hey, John. You with us, John? We lost you.

嘿，約翰。你還在嗎，約翰？我們跟丟你了。

He may have lost his connection. John, go ahead.

他可能斷線了。約翰，你繼續。

Can you hear me? Sorry about that. I'd like to ask about the power brands, that the rate of growth there has really moderated from solid mid-single-digits the last two years down to 3% this quarter. Can you walk through what's behind that deceleration, and maybe specifically the extent that you've already realized some of the easier distribution gains, and now it's just a slower build going forward? Or is it really just tied back to biscuits and the macro issues in general?

您聽得到我說話嗎？不好意思。我想問一下關於強勢品牌的問題，它們的成長率確實放緩了，從過去兩年穩健的個位數中段成長率降至本季的3%。您能否解釋一下成長放緩的原因，特別是考慮到你們已經實現了部分容易實現的通路拓展目標，所以現在需要放慢成長速度？或者這真的只是餅乾業務以及整體宏觀經濟情勢的問題？

I would say it's the latter, John. There's a question that if you think about our overall share performance, we're only down 0.3 points of share in the US biscuit, but given the size of that market, it has a profound impact on our overall performance. So there's no question that getting that US biscuit business back growing again is more significantly is a critical piece of our overall performance.

約翰，我認為是後者。這裡有個問題：如果我們從整體市佔率來看，雖然我們在美國餅乾市場的佔有率只下降了0.3個百分點，但考慮到該市場的規模，這對我們的整體表現有著深遠的影響。因此，毫無疑問，讓美國餅乾業務重回成長軌道，對我們整體業績的提升至關重要。

But our power brands will continue to be the growth drivers of our overall portfolio. They carry higher margins, they grow at a faster rate, and we expect that we are now, over time, continuing to put them on advantaged assets through the work we're doing in supply chain reinvention. So the Q2 numbers were largely impacted by the US biscuit situation.

但我們的強勢品牌仍將是整體產品組合的成長動力。它們利潤率更高，成長速度更快，而且我們預計，隨著供應鏈重塑工作的推進，我們將逐步將它們部署到更具優勢的資產上。因此，第二季的業績很大程度上受到了美國餅乾市場的影響。

And there are big power brand exposures in some of the emerging markets that have slowed, John, so it's really the macro.

約翰，一些新興市場中一些實力雄厚的品牌曝光度已經放緩，所以這實際上是宏觀經濟因素造成的。

But the white space opportunity is still just as strong as it's been going forward?

但未來的市場空白機會依然像以往一樣強勁嗎？

Absolutely, absolutely.

當然，當然。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Kenneth Zaslow, BMO Capital Markets.

Kenneth Zaslow，BMO資本市場。

Hey, good morning, everyone.

嘿，大家早安。

Hey, Ken.

嘿，肯。

I have two sizing questions in terms of the new market. When you think about China in the chocolate market, you said that gum has grown to about $200 million business over a four-year period. Is that the right metric to think about it in how big this white space opportunity is? Is it bigger than that? Can you just sized opportunity for us?

關於新市場的規模，我有兩個問題。您提到，在中國巧克力市場，口香糖業務在四年內成長到了約2億美元。這個指標是否足以衡量這個空白市場機會的規模？它是否更大？您能否幫我們估算一下這個機會的規模？

I'm not going to give you our business proposition, but again we see it as a very attractive market, and frankly, the opportunity -- many of the players in that market have not performed particularly well of late and so we see it is as a real opportunity for us to take some leadership and get the category growing faster.

我不會向你們透露我們的商業計劃，但我們再次強調，我們認為這是一個非常有吸引力的市場，坦白說，機會也很大——該市場中的許多參與者最近表現都不太好，因此我們認為這是一個真正的機會，可以讓我們發揮領導作用，並推動該品類更快地增長。

Okay. All right. Then the second question that I have is, when you think about the online business, you said $1 billion in 2020, is that all incremental, does that take away other business? How much of that do we actually think of as truly new business? Is there a way to parse that out, as well?

好的。好的。那麼我的第二個問題是，您提到2020年線上業務規模達到10億美元，這全部都是新增業務嗎？會不會擠佔其他業務？我們究竟能把其中多少視為真正的新事業？有沒有辦法把這部分也細分出來？

Obviously, it's early days, Ken, and so it's hard to tell you exactly how incremental it is. As consumers shift their behavior from more traditional channels, it's not going to be 100% incremental, but there's no question that we have the opportunity as we look at the kinds of items we are offering in those channels, as well as the nature of the consumption occasions that consumer is using those channels for, be it gifting or subscription opportunities, that clearly will be incremental to our base business. It's one of the reasons we are so encouraged about that opportunity and have chosen to invest significantly behind it.

顯然，現在還處於早期階段，肯，所以很難準確地告訴你它能帶來多大的增量。隨著消費者行為從傳統管道轉向其他管道，增量不會是百分之百的，但毫無疑問，我們有機會透過審視我們在這些管道提供的商品類型，以及消費者使用這些管道的消費場景（無論是送禮還是訂閱服務），來提升我們的基礎業務。這正是我們對這機會充滿信心並決定投入大量資金的原因之一。

Okay. What I'm trying to get at is, I understand that this year is a little bit weaker in terms of sales growth relative to your long-term expectations, but are there other legs to the stool where -- like these, that you expect to see the acceleration. Is that the way to think about? Is that -- how you see whites pace opportunities in these growth algorithms, that, that's how you're to get back to that higher level of growth? Is that way to think about it?

好的。我想問的是，我理解今年的銷售成長相對於你們的長期預期略顯疲軟，但你們是否預期其他方面——例如這些方面——能夠加速成長？是這樣想的嗎？你們是如何看待這些成長演算法中出現的機遇，並以此重回更高成長水準的？是這樣想的嗎？

Yes, the opportunity is both white space in terms of our category participation, as well as our channel participation. As we look at emerging markets, for example, we still see growth in the traditional trade.

是的，機會既體現在我們品類參與度的空白領域，也體現在我們通路參與度的空白領域。例如，當我們審視新興市場時，我們仍然看到傳統貿易管道的成長。

So part of our investment in route to market in areas like Brazil or India or even China, as we think about getting outside the main cities, is designed to access those consumers and that consumption that we don't cover with our participation in the modern trade. So it's both white space with respect to brands and innovation opportunities, as well as with respect to channel.

因此，我們在巴西、印度甚至中國等地區，增加對市場通路的投資，旨在拓展到主要城市以外的市場，從而觸及我們目前透過傳統管道尚未覆蓋的消費者群體和消費群體。這既包括品牌和創新機會的空白市場，也包括通路方面的空白市場。

Great, I really appreciate it. Thank you.

太好了，非常感謝。

Thanks, Ken.

謝謝你，肯。

Jonathan Feeney, Consumer Edge Research.

喬納森·費尼，消費者優勢研究公司。

Good morning. Thanks for getting me in. Just a couple quick ones. First, if you look at what Hersey did recently in China, essentially extend the milk chocolate Hersey brand to a lot of different places, they've recently had to significantly retrench maybe their growth expectations. So looking at that and maybe how much penetration and competition there is in the chocolate business, what is it about Milka that makes you think it's a good time right now to launch in China?

早安.謝謝邀請我參加。我只想問幾個問題。首先，看看好時（Hershey）最近在中國的舉措，他們基本上把牛奶巧克力品牌拓展到了很多地方，但最近可能不得不大幅下調增長預期。考慮到這一點，以及巧克力產業的滲透率和競爭程度，您認為現在是Milka進軍中國市場的好時機，原因是什麼？

And secondly, if I can, what is it about -- just this fascinating 10% or so of snacks being bought in China via e-commerce? What is it that's going on in that market that makes that consumer want to buy snacks through your Alibaba partnership, e-commerce in general? And can you bring that to North America, to Latin America, other markets in a way where Mondelez can well out-punch the competition in that channel? Thanks very much.

其次，如果可以的話，我想請教一下，中國大約有10%的零食是透過電商管道購買的，這究竟是怎麼回事？是什麼讓消費者選擇透過你們與阿里巴巴的合作，或者說透過電商平台購買零食？你們能否將這種模式推廣到北美、拉丁美洲以及其他市場，使億滋國際在這些通路中超越競爭對手？非常感謝。

John, let me answer the second question first, which is absolutely we see the opportunity. There's no question the model -- there's different models within e-commerce. Alibaba is much more of a single item model versus some of the models that we see with some of our traditional retailers in the developed markets that are more of a market basket approach to a way -- to buy their normal purchases.

約翰，我先回答第二個問題，那就是我們絕對看到了其中的機會。毫無疑問，電商領域存在著不同的模式。阿里巴巴的模式更偏向單件商品銷售，而我們在已開發市場看到的一些傳統零售商則更傾向於銷售一籃子商品，也就是顧客購買日常所需物品的方式。

So we see every opportunity to learn from the experience we're having with Alibaba and bring some of the unique items, some of these subscription opportunities for brands like belVita, for example, to the online space and to drive our growth. That is the big opportunity that we see. We are certainly learning a lot from the various partnerships that we have around the world.

因此，我們看到了與阿里巴巴合作的每一個機會，可以從中學習，並將一些獨特的商品，例如belVita等品牌的訂閱服務，引入線上平台，從而推動業務成長。這是我們看到的巨大機會。我們當然也從與世界各地合作夥伴的合作中獲益良多。

With respect to chocolate in China, we have studied this for quite some time. The Chinese consumers love brands with personality. We've done a lot of testing with the consumer and our Milka bundle is a very unique bundle. The purity of Alpine milk together with some of the assets that you're familiar with, the Lila Cow, for example, are really positive with the Chinese consumer, and we have every expectation that we can actually bring growth back to this market with the launch of Milka.

針對中國巧克力市場，我們已經進行了相當長的研究。中國消費者喜愛個性鮮明的品牌。我們進行了大量的消費者測試，最終確定了Milka的獨特組合。純淨的阿爾卑斯山牛奶，加上一些您耳熟能詳的品牌元素，例如莉拉乳牛，都深受中國消費者的喜愛。我們完全有信心，Milka的上市能為中國市場帶來成長。

Great. Thanks very much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Thanks, Jonathan.

謝謝你，喬納森。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。今天的電話會議到此結束，您可以斷開連線了。