億滋國際 (MDLZ) 2016 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to Mondelez International first-quarter 2016 earnings conference call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks from Mondelez management and the question and answer session. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加億滋國際2016年第一季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議預計持續約一小時，包括億滋國際管理層的演講和問答環節。（操作說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Dexter Congbalay, Vice President Investor Relations for Mondelez International. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將把電話交給億滋國際投資者關係副總裁德克斯特‧康巴萊先生。請繼續，先生。

Good morning and thanks for joining us. With me are Irene Rosenfeld, our Chairman and CEO, and Brian Gladden, our CFO.

早安，感謝各位收看。陪同我的是我們的董事長兼執行長艾琳·羅森菲爾德，以及我們的財務長布萊恩·格拉登。

Earlier today, we sent out our earnings release in today's slides, which are available on our website, mondelezinternational.com.

今天早些時候，我們發布了收益報告，報告以幻燈片的形式呈現，可在我們的網站mondelezinternational.com上查看。

As you know, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the Company's performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our 10-K and 10-Q filings for more details on our forward-looking statements.

如您所知，在本次電話會議中，我們將對本公司的業績做出前瞻性陳述。這些說法是基於我們今天看待事物的方式。由於風險和不確定因素，實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。有關我們前瞻性聲明的更多詳情，請參閱我們 10-K 和 10-Q 文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素。

Some of today's prepared remarks include non-GAAP financial measures. You can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and at the back of the slide presentation.

今天準備的發言稿中部分內容涉及非GAAP財務指標。您可以在我們的獲利報告中以及投影片簡報的背面找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調整表。

With that, I will now turn the call over to Irene.

接下來，我將把電話交給艾琳。

Thanks, Dexter. Good morning.

謝謝你，德克斯特。早安.

We had a good start to the year. We continue to drive top-tier margin expansion and earnings growth while stepping up organic revenue growth. Specifically, organic net revenue grew more than 2% as we drove our Power Brands, stepped up volume mix in developed markets, raised prices again to recover currency-driven input costs in emerging markets, and continued to eliminate less profitable brands and lower return spending.

今年開局不錯。我們持續推動頂級利潤率擴張和獲利成長，同時加快內生性收入成長。具體而言，隨著我們大力發展強勢品牌、在已開發市場提高銷量、再次提價以彌補新興市場受匯率影響的投入成本，以及繼續淘汰盈利能力較弱的品牌和降低迴報支出，有機淨收入增長超過 2%。

We expanded adjusted gross profit margin by 170 basis points to 39.7% by driving strong net productivity. Adjusted operating income margin expanded 240 basis points to 15.1% as we continue to aggressively reduce overheads while significantly stepping up A&C support. And, finally, adjusted EPS was $0.48, up 31% on a constant currency basis, driven by operating gains.

透過提高淨生產力，我們將調整後的毛利率提高了 170 個基點，達到 39.7%。經調整後的營業利潤率成長了 240 個基點，達到 15.1%，這得益於我們繼續積極削減開支，同時大幅加強了 A&C 支持。最後，經調整後的每股盈餘為 0.48 美元，以固定匯率計算成長 31%，主要得益於營業利潤的成長。

Let's take a closer look at the details. Organic revenue in Q1 grew just over 2%, in line with our annual guidance. Importantly, the impact from our revenue management actions, which includes SKU reduction and trade optimization, was a little more than 1 percentage point. That is largely consistent with our full-year estimate of about 1.25 points, and you will see in a few minutes how that plays through our margins.

讓我們仔細看看細節。第一季有機收入成長略高於 2%，與我們的年度預期一致。重要的是，我們的收入管理措施（包括 SKU 減少和貿易優化）的影響略高於 1 個百分點。這與我們全年約 1.25 個百分點的預測基本一致，稍後您將看到這如何影響我們的利潤率。

We delivered this growth, despite the volatile operating and currency environment that pressured category growth, especially in many of our larger emerging markets. In aggregate, emerging markets were up about 3.5% as we priced to recover currency-driven inflation to protect profitability.

儘管經營和貨幣環境動盪，給品類成長帶來了壓力，尤其是在我們許多較大的新興市場，但我們仍然實現了這一成長。總體而言，新興市場上漲約 3.5%，因為我們預期貨幣驅動的通膨將會復甦以保護獲利能力。

Along with softening category growth, this pricing had some elasticity impact, which resulted in lower vol/mix in the short term. In contrast, developed markets grew 1.3%.

隨著品類成長放緩，這種定價策略對彈性產生了一定影響，導致短期內銷售/產品組合下降。相比之下，已開發市場成長了1.3%。

What is noteworthy is that nearly all of this growth was driven by vol/mix, including solid growth in both Europe and North America. This reflects the continuation of the improvement in our vol/mix contribution as the cost environment has moderated since early 2015.

值得注意的是，幾乎所有這些成長都是由波動率/組合驅動的，包括歐洲和北美地區的穩健成長。這反映出，自 2015 年初成本環境趨於緩和以來，我們的銷售/產品組合貢獻持續改善。

Power Brands continue to drive our growth. They were up nearly 4%, in line with our categories. The shift of Easter-related shipments into the first quarter provided us with only a modest benefit, given that Easter was only one week earlier than last year.

強勢品牌持續推動我們的成長。與我們的分類結果一致，它們的漲幅接近 4%。考慮到復活節只比去年提前了一周，復活節相關貨​​物的發貨提前到第一季只給我們帶來了有限的收益。

Turning now to our results by region. Despite the challenging environment, every region contributed to revenue growth with three of them also delivering positive vol/mix. Latin America was up nearly 4%, all due to pricing in response to currency-driven inflation in Argentina and Brazil. Brazil was down low to mid-single digits as the deteriorating political and economic environment pressured category growth. We expect operating conditions in Brazil to remain challenging for the balance of the year, and that is reflected in our current outlook.

現在來看我們按地區劃分的結果。儘管面臨充滿挑戰的環境，但每個地區都為收入成長做出了貢獻，其中三個地區也實現了正的銷售/產品組合。拉丁美洲整體上漲近 4%，這完全是由於阿根廷和巴西貨幣貶值導致通貨膨脹，進而推高了物價。由於政治和經濟環境惡化，巴西的零售額下降了個位數百分比，這給該品類的成長帶來了壓力。我們預計今年剩餘時間內巴西的經營環境仍將充滿挑戰，這也反映在我們目前的展望中。

In contrast, Mexico, our second largest market in the region, was a bright spot. Revenue was up high single digits, driven by strong volume and share growth in gum. EEMEA grew 4.5%, all driven by pricing, in response to continued currency-driven inflation in several markets. Political and economic instability in several countries tempered category growth. Russia grew low single digits as higher pricing was mostly offset by elasticity and softer consumption due to the macro environment.

相較之下，我們在該地區的第二大市場墨西哥則表現亮眼。受口香糖銷量和市場份額強勁增長的推動，營收實現了接近兩位數的成長。EEMEA 成長 4.5%，全部由物價上漲推動，以應對多個市場持續的貨幣通膨。多個國家的政治和經濟不穩定抑制了該品類的成長。俄羅斯經濟成長率僅為個位數，原因是價格上漲被宏觀環境導致的消費彈性下降和消費疲軟所抵消。

Nonetheless, we held share in our two largest categories, chocolate and biscuits.

儘管如此，我們在巧克力和餅乾這兩個最大的類別中仍然保持著一定的市場份額。

As with Brazil, we remain cautious about the near-term operating environment in Russia, and that also continues to temper our full-year outlook.

與巴西的情況一樣，我們對俄羅斯的近期經營環境仍持謹慎態度，這也持續影響著我們對全年的展望。

Asia-Pacific grew almost 3%, including about a point of vol/mix growth. India, Australia, and the Southeast Asian markets all contributed. Chocolate in India was up double digits, driven by vol/mix gains and stable shares. In response to increased A&C support behind Cadbury Dairy Milk and continued momentum of our Bubbly innovation platform.

亞太地區成長近 3%，其中銷售/產品組合成長約 1 個百分點。印度、澳洲和東南亞市場均做出了貢獻。受銷售/產品組合成長和市場份額穩定的推動，印度巧克力價格實現了兩位數的成長。為了響應 A&C 對吉百利牛奶巧克力的日益增長的支持，以及我們 Bubbly 創新平台的持續發展勢頭。

Australia was up mid-single digits behind strength in chocolate as we lapped our significant revenue management actions from a year ago and invest in marketing and innovation behind our now more profitable chocolate and biscuit businesses.

澳洲巧克力業務強勁成長，實現了個位數中段的成長，這得益於我們去年採取的重大收入管理措施，以及對如今盈利能力更強的巧克力和餅乾業務的營銷和創新進行投資。

China was essentially flat. Biscuits revenue was down, reflecting the overall category slowdown. This was offset somewhat by continued double-digit growth in gum, despite a decline in that category as well. We remain cautious about China for the remainder of the year, given the soft consumer environment and category trends.

中國地勢基本平坦。餅乾銷售量下降，反映了整個品類銷售放緩的趨勢。儘管口香糖品類整體下滑，但其兩位數的持續成長在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。鑑於疲軟的消費環境和品類趨勢，我們對今年剩餘時間的中國市場仍持謹慎態度。

Europe continued to show sequential improvement, delivering modest growth in the quarter as price gaps narrowed and we selectively invested behind high ROI initiatives.

歐洲市場繼續呈現環比改善態勢，本季實現了溫和成長，這得益於價格差距的縮小以及我們對高投資回報率項目的選擇性投資。

Notably, Europe posted positive volume mix with strength in both chocolate and biscuits behind Power Brands such as Cadbury Dairy Milk and Oreo.

值得注意的是，歐洲市場銷售量組成呈現正面態勢，巧克力和餅乾銷售量均表現強勁，主要得益於吉百利牛奶巧克力和奧利奧等知名品牌。

Last, but not least, North America was up about 2.5%, including a couple of points of vol/mix growth. Biscuits grew low single digits, largely through higher vol/mix and share growth of Oreo, belVita, and Triscuit.

最後，北美市場上漲約 2.5%，其中波動率/混合指數成長了幾個百分點。餅乾銷售成長了個位數，主要得益於奧利奧、belVita 和 Triscuit 的銷售/產品組合和市場份額的成長。

In addition, we launched Good Thins, a new biscuit innovation platform that capitalizes on consumer demand for more wholesome savory snack options. Good Thins are delicious baked crackers, made with potatoes, chickpeas, or rice, with no artificial ingredients. We launched Good Thins in March, and it has already reached a 1.4 share of the US cracker market.

此外，我們還推出了 Good Thins，這是一個全新的餅乾創新平台，旨在滿足消費者對更健康美味零食的需求。Good Thins 是一種美味的烘焙餅乾，由馬鈴薯、鷹嘴豆或米製成，不含人工成分。我們在 3 月推出了 Good Thins，目前已佔據美國餅乾市場 1.4% 的份額。

Turning now to our categories, in the first quarter, overall category growth was about 4%. However, given the timing of Easter, retail consumption shifted somewhat from Q2 into Q1. Excluding the Easter shift impact, overall category growth was roughly 3%.

現在來看我們的品類，第一季整體品類成長約 4%。然而，由於復活節的時間安排，零售消費從第二季度略微轉移到了第一季。不計入復活節假期的影響，該品類整體成長約 3%。

Our organic growth was about a point below our categories, due primarily to our revenue management actions. Importantly, as I mentioned earlier, our Power Brands grew about 4%, in line with our categories, and drove significant margin expansion.

由於我們的收入管理措施，我們的有機成長率比各類別平均成長率低了約 1 個百分點。重要的是，正如我之前提到的，我們的主力品牌成長了約 4%，與各品類的成長一致，並推動了利潤率的顯著成長。

Net net, building on our Q4 momentum, about 65% of our snacks revenue gained or held share in the first quarter.

總的來說，延續了第四季度的成長勢頭，我們零食收入的約 65% 在第一季實現了成長或維持了市場份額。

Let's look at our performance in each of our categories. Biscuits grew about 2.5% with notable strength in the US and the UK. Our share performance was also strong with around 80% of our biscuits revenue gaining or holding share. Our biscuits Power Brands grew mid-single digits, led by Oreo and belVita.

讓我們來看看我們在每個類別中的表現。餅乾銷量成長約 2.5%，其中美國和英國市場表現特別強勁。我們的股票表現也很強勁，約 80% 的餅乾收入實現了成長或維持了市場份額。我們的餅乾主力品牌實現了中等個位數的成長，其中奧利奧和焙朗引領了成長。

In chocolate, our revenue reflected strong growth in the UK, India and Australia, as the markets adjusted to our pricing action. This was partially offset by soft results in Brazil and Russia. Together, these two markets tempered our overall chocolate growth by more than 1.5 points.

在巧克力業務方面，英國、印度和澳洲的市場表現強勁，收入也隨之實現強勁成長，因為市場已經調整以適應我們的定價策略。巴西和俄羅斯的疲軟成績部分抵消了這一影響。這兩個市場合計使我們整體巧克力業務的成長放緩了 1.5 個百分點以上。

Shares were solid with about half of our chocolate revenue gaining or holding share. We are pleased to see our momentum improving as price gaps narrow and our targeted investments pay off.

股價表現穩健，我們約有一半的巧克力收入實現了成長或保持成長。我們很高興看到，隨著價格差距縮小，我們的發展勢頭正在增強，而且我們的有針對性投資也取得了成效。

Our performance in the UK was especially strong and a sharp turnaround from our share losses through most of 2015. We increased share by nearly a point behind increased A&C support and innovation such as Cadbury Dairy Milk Big Taste and Cadbury Dairy Milk Medley.

我們在英國的業績尤其強勁，扭轉了 2015 年大部分時間的市佔率下滑局面。由於 A&C 加大了支持力度，並推出了吉百利牛奶巧克力大口味和吉百利牛奶巧克力什錦等創新產品，我們的市場份額增長了近一個百分點。

In Germany, our share decline in the quarter was due solely to cycling the impact of the revenue management actions we implemented in the second quarter last year. As a result, this is the last quarter of impact related to those actions.

在德國，我們本季的市佔率下降完全是由於去年第二季實施的收入管理措施的影響所致。因此，這是與這些行動相關的最後一個季度的影響期。

Gum and candy revenue increased almost 3%, led by strong growth of gum in Mexico and China and Sour Patch Kids candy in the US. About 60% of our gum and candy revenue gained or held share with gains in Mexico, China and France.

口香糖和糖果收入成長近 3%，其中墨西哥和中國的口香糖銷量強勁成長，美國 Sour Patch Kids 糖果銷量也大幅成長。我們約 60% 的口香糖和糖果收入實現了成長或維持了市場份額，其中墨西哥、中國和法國的市場份額有所增長。

While we remain disappointed by continued aggregate gum share declines here in the US, we are encouraged to see both Trident and Dentyne growing. In addition, we will be implementing a Stride turnaround plan later this year.

儘管我們對美國口香糖市場份額的持續下滑感到失望，但我們很欣慰地看到 Trident 和 Dentyne 都在增長。此外，我們將在今年稍後實施一項名為「Stride」的扭虧為盈計畫。

To summarize, we are pleased with our first-quarter results. We delivered solid top-line growth and share performance with improving vol/mix, despite continued volatility in some of our largest emerging markets. Our solid top line, together with strong delivery, productivity, and cost savings, which Brian will describe in a moment, provide a good foundation for delivering our full-year forecast.

總而言之，我們對第一季的業績感到滿意。儘管我們一些最大的新興市場持續波動，但我們仍實現了穩健的營收成長和市場佔有率表現，並且銷售/產品組合有所改善。我們穩健的營收成長，加上強大的交付能力、生產力和成本節約（布萊恩稍後會詳細介紹），為我們實現全年預測奠定了良好的基礎。

Before I conclude, however, I would like to pause for a moment to share a few thoughts about Mark Clouse, our Chief Commercial Officer. As you saw in today's press release, Mark will be leaving our Company in a few weeks to become CEO of Pinnacle Foods. Mark is a talented executive and a natural leader, who has made significant contributions to every aspect of our business over the last two decades, most recently as our Chief Commercial Officer. Mark has proven that he is ready for this next step in his career. We thank him and wish him and his family all the best.

不過，在結束之前，我想花一點時間，分享一下關於我們首席商務官馬克·克勞斯的一些想法。正如您在今天的新聞稿中看到的，馬克將在幾週後離開我們公司，並擔任 Pinnacle Foods 的執行長。馬克是一位才華橫溢的高管和天生的領導者，在過去的二十年中，他為我們業務的各個方面都做出了重大貢獻，最近擔任首席商務官。馬克已經證明他已經準備好迎接職業生涯的下一個階段。我們感謝他，並祝福他和他的家人一切順利。

While, of course, we will miss Mark, we have a deep leadership team, and I am confident that they will continue to execute flawlessly. We will take this opportunity to further simplify and streamline our organization, and so we won't be backfilling the Chief Commercial Officer role.

當然，我們會想念馬克，但我們擁有一支實力雄厚的領導團隊，我相信他們會繼續完美地執行各項任務。我們將藉此機會進一步簡化和精簡我們的組織架構，因此我們將不再填補首席商務官的職缺。

With that, let me turn the call over to Brian.

那麼，我把電話交給布萊恩吧。

Thanks, Irene. Good morning, everyone. Building on Irene's comments, we delivered strong margin expansion and earnings growth, despite the continued challenging environment. Adjusted gross margin increased 170 basis points to 39.7%.

謝謝你，艾琳。各位早安。基於 Irene 的評論，儘管環境持續充滿挑戰，我們仍實現了強勁的利潤率擴張和獲利成長。調整後毛利率成長170個基點至39.7%。

Please note that this includes absorbing a 50 basis point headwind related to commodity and currency hedging contracts that don't qualify for hedge accounting treatment. Our gross margin expansion was driven by net productivity of more than 4% of cogs. That is up from about 3.5% last year and reflects continued progress as we implement integrated Lean Six Sigma and strong execution of our supply chain reinvention program, including installing our state-of-the-art lines of the future around the world.

請注意，這包括吸收與商品和貨幣避險合約相關的 50 個基點的不利影響，這些合約不符合避險會計處理條件。我們的毛利率成長得益於齒輪淨生產率提高了 4% 以上。這一比例高於去年的約 3.5%，反映出我們在實施綜合精益六西格瑪和強力執行供應鏈重塑計畫（包括在全球各地安裝我們最先進的未來生產線）方面取得的持續進展。

In fact, we will have four additional lines operational in our Salinas, Mexico facility by year-end. Complementing the seven lines already in place there.

事實上，到今年年底，我們在墨西哥薩利納斯的工廠將新增四條生產線投入營運。與當地已有的七條線路相輔相成。

You may have also seen that we opened our latest greenfield plant in India on Monday. This plant will produce approximately 60,000 tons of Cadbury Dairy Milk chocolate annually to start. By 2020, this multi-category food campus is expected to reach annual capacity of 250,000 tons.

您可能也已經注意到，我們週一在印度開設了最新的綠地工廠。該工廠初期每年將生產約 6 萬噸吉百利牛奶巧克力。到 2020 年，這個多品類食品園區的年產能預計將達到 25 萬噸。

Adjusted OI margin was 15.1%, up 240 basis points. Drivers of the improvement include the gross margin expansion, as well as overhead reductions as we continue to drive ZBB cost savings. We did benefit from the timing of some overhead spending in the quarter that will negatively impact our second quarter, but we are fully on track to deliver our targeted cost savings related to indirect cost packages and the migration of back office processes to global shared services.

調整後的未償付餘額利潤率為 15.1%，上升 240 個基點。推動績效改善的因素包括毛利率的提高，以及隨著我們繼續推進零基預算 (ZBB) 成本節約而帶來的管理費用降低。本季部分間接費用支出對我們第二季的業績產生了負面影響，但我們仍按計畫實現與間接成本方案和後台流程向全球共享服務遷移相關的既定成本節約目標。

We also increased A&C support to more than 9% of revenue to support our Power Brands and drive profitable growth over the long-term.

為了支持我們的主力品牌並推動長期獲利成長，我們也將廣告和廣告支援比例提高到收入的 9% 以上。

Our cost reduction efforts drove margin improvement across all of our regions with the exception of Latin America, which was affected by the tough environment in Brazil. In both North America and Europe, the margin improvement was driven by strong net productivity and reduced overheads, offset by stepped up A&C investments to fuel growth.

除了拉丁美洲以外，我們的成本削減措施提高了所有地區的利潤率，拉丁美洲受到巴西嚴峻環境的影響。在北美和歐洲，利潤率的提高主要得益於淨生產率的提高和管理費用的減少，但同時也被為促進成長而加大的A&C投資所抵銷。

In North America, adjusted OI margin grew 260 basis points to 20.3%, and in Europe margins were up 390 basis points to 19.7%. As you know, North America and Europe have expanded margins by more than 500 and 600 basis points respectively since the end of 2013.

在北美，調整後的未平倉合約利潤率成長了 260 個基點，達到 20.3%；在歐洲，利潤率成長了 390 個基點，達到 19.7%。如您所知，自 2013 年底以來，北美和歐洲的利潤率分別提高了 500 和 600 多個基點。

In EEMEA, margin was 11.5%, up 770 basis points versus what was an easy compare. As you may recall, in the first quarter of 2015, price increases were insufficient to cover the sharp increases in currency-driven input costs. In this quarter, strong net productivity, favorable vol/mix, and overhead reductions were the key drivers of our margin expansion.

在 EEMEA 地區，利潤率為 11.5%，比去年同期成長了 770 個基點，這是一個很容易比較的基數。您可能還記得，2015 年第一季度，價格上漲不足以彌補匯率波動導致的投入成本大幅上漲。本季度，強勁的淨生產力、有利的銷售/產品組合以及管理費用的降低是我們利潤率擴張的關鍵驅動因素。

In Asia-Pacific, margin expanded 310 basis points to 16.1%. This was driven by continued productivity improvements, as well as overhead reductions. In Latin America, given the challenging macroeconomic environment in Brazil, margins declined 260 basis points to 10.5%. This was largely due to unfavorable vol/mix in currency, which more than offset significant cost reductions.

在亞太地區，利潤率成長了 310 個基點，達到 16.1%。這主要得益於生產效率的持續提高以及管理費用的降低。在拉丁美洲，鑑於巴西充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境，利潤率下降了 260 個基點，至 10.5%。這主要是由於貨幣波動/組合不利，抵消了大幅降低的成本。

Now turning to EPS. Adjusted EPS was $0.48, up 31% on a constant currency basis. The increase was driven by $0.07 of operating gains, including a negative $0.02 impact from mark-to-market and a negative $0.01 from calendar adjustments.

現在來看每股收益。調整後的每股收益為 0.48 美元，以固定匯率計算成長 31%。該成長主要由 0.07 美元的營業收益推動，其中包括市值調整帶來的 0.02 美元的負面影響和日曆調整帶來的 0.01 美元的負面影響。

Below the operating line, EPS increased $0.05 as lower interest expense, the benefit from a lower share count, and lower taxes more than offset the dilution from the coffee deal. Our coffee investments in both JDE and Keurig had solid quarters and delivered in line with our expectations.

在營業利潤方面，每股收益增加了 0.05 美元，原因是利息支出減少、股份數量減少帶來的好處以及稅收減少，這些因素足以抵消咖啡交易帶來的稀釋。我們在 JDE 和 Keurig 的咖啡投資都取得了穩健的季度業績，並達到了我們的預期。

In the quarter, we returned $1.5 billion of capital to our shareholders. Specifically, we paid out about $270 million in dividends and purchased $1.2 billion of stock or nearly 29 million shares at an average price of about $41. This amount includes the remaining $500 million of cash received as part of the JDE coffee deal that we committed to use for repurchasing stock.

本季度，我們向股東返還了 15 億美元的資本。具體來說，我們支付了約 2.7 億美元的股息，並以平均每股約 41 美元的價格購買了價值 12 億美元的股票，即近 2,900 萬股。該金額包括作為 JDE 咖啡交易的一部分收到的剩餘 5 億美元現金，我們承諾將其用於回購股票。

In addition, we opportunistically accelerated a portion of our 2016 buyback program into the first quarter. We continue to expect to buy back approximately $2 billion of stock for the year.

此外，我們也抓住機會，將 2016 年股票回購計畫的一部分提前到第一季執行。我們預計今年將回購約20億美元的股票。

Now turning to our outlook. Given our strong start to the year, we remain confident in our ability to deliver on our 2016 outlook and are reaffirming our outlook today. Specifically, we continue to expect to deliver organic revenue growth of at least 2%, adjusted OI margin of 15% to 16%, which is an expansion of at least 200 basis points this year, double-digit adjusted EPS growth, and at least $1.4 billion of free cash flow.

現在談談我們的展望。鑑於我們今年開局強勁，我們仍然有信心實現 2016 年的預期目標，並在今天重申我們的預期目標。具體而言，我們繼續預期至少 2% 的有機收入成長，15% 至 16% 的調整後營業利潤率（比今年至少增長 200 個基點），兩位數的調整後每股收益增長，以及至少 14 億美元的自由現金流。

In addition, based on recent spot rates, we expect less of an impact from currency translation. For revenue, we expect currency to be a 3 percentage point headwind, down from 6 points. And for EPS, we estimate a $0.05 headwind, down from $0.13.

此外，根據最近的即期匯率，我們預期匯率變動的影響較小。就營收而言，我們預期匯率波動將造成 3 個百分點的不利影響，低於先前的 6 個百分點。對於每股盈餘 (EPS)，我們預計會有 0.05 美元的不利影響，低於先前的 0.13 美元。

We've also updated a couple other items to help with your financial models. We currently estimate that our interest expense will be $625 million to $650 million, down about $25 million from our previous estimate. Due to some discrete items in the first quarter, we now estimate our full-year 2016 tax rate will be in the low 20s%, down from the low to mid 20s% in our prior outlook.

我們還更新了其他一些項目，以幫助您建立財務模型。我們目前預計利息支出將為 6.25 億美元至 6.5 億美元，比先前的估計減少了約 2,500 萬美元。由於第一季的一些特殊情況，我們現在預計 2016 年全年稅率將在 20% 左右，低於我們先前預測的 20% 左右。

While we are not providing quarterly guidance, I would like to call out a few items to keep in mind as you think about our second quarter. First, Q2 is typically our lowest margin quarter, given seasonally lower revenues.

雖然我們不提供季度業績指引，但在您考慮我們第二季業績時，我想提幾點需要注意的事項。首先，由於季節性收入下降，第二季通常是我們利潤率最低的季度。

Second, as we mentioned earlier, our first quarter benefitted from the timing of some overhead spending, which will pressure our second quarter.

其次，正如我們之前提到的，我們第一季受益於一些間接費用支出的時間安排，這將給我們的第二季帶來壓力。

Finally, as you may know, collective bargaining agreements covering eight US facilities expired at the end of February. The affected employees have been working without a contract since that time, while we continue to bargain in good faith with the union. We have shared our last, best and final offer with the union. We believe it is fair and the right solution for both our employees and our business. Until we reach an agreement, we expect to incur some one-time costs as we continue the negotiation. While executing business continuity plans for our North America business.

最後，您可能已經知道，涵蓋美國八家工廠的集體談判協議已於二月底到期。受影響的員工自那時起一直沒有簽訂合同，而我們則繼續與工會進行真誠的談判。我們已經向工會提出了最終、最好的方案。我們認為這對我們的員工和公司來說都是公平且正確的解決方案。在達成協議之前，我們預計在繼續談判的過程中會產生一些一次性費用。在執行北美業務連續性計劃的同時。

Despite these short-term items, we are executing well and are confident in our business momentum and our ability to deliver on our full-year commitments.

儘管存在這些短期問題，但我們的執行情況良好，對我們的業務發展勢頭以及實現全年承諾的能力充滿信心。

So to wrap up, we are pleased with our strong results in the first quarter. We delivered significant margin expansion, solid organic revenue growth and share performance with Power Brands up 4%, positive vol/mix growth in developed markets, and increased investments behind our Power Brands and innovation platforms.

綜上所述，我們對第一季的強勁業績感到滿意。我們實現了顯著的利潤率擴張、穩健的有機收入成長和市場佔有率表現，其中強勢品牌成長了 4%，已開發市場的銷售/產品組合實現了正成長，並加大了對強勢品牌和創新平台的投資。

We also returned $1.5 billion to shareholders.

我們也向股東返還了15億美元。

While we remain cautious about the volatile operating environment, we are on track to deliver our 2016 outlook, as well as our adjusted OI margin target of 17% to 18% in 2018.

儘管我們對動盪的經營環境仍保持謹慎，但我們預計將實現 2016 年的業績展望，以及 2018 年調整後的營業利潤率目標 17% 至 18%。

With that, let's open it up for questions.

那麼，接下來就進入提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) Chris Growe, Stifel.

（操作說明）克里斯·格羅，斯蒂費爾。

I just wanted to ask -- and I think I heard a number of points that are worth mentioning, but in terms of the strong first-quarter performance, both EPS margin and even revenue growth, as we think about the full-year guidance, I think I heard a little bit of caution on Brazil, on Russia, on China, as well as some of the timing of overhead spending that can be moving margin around a bit. But I wanted to understand the rationale for holding guidance where it is, and maybe just to answer my own question with those different points there, but are those the ones that are kind of keeping you from being more aggressive with the full-year outlook, in particular on the margin side?

我只是想問一下——而且我認為我聽到了一些值得一提的觀點，但就第一季強勁的業績而言，無論是每股收益利潤率還是收入增長，當我們考慮全年業績指引時，我認為我聽到了一些關於巴西、俄羅斯、中國市場的謹慎意見，以及一些可能會對利潤率產生一定影響的間接費用支出時間安排。但我想要了解維持目前業績指引的理由，也許只是為了回答我自己的問題，這些不同的觀點是否正是你們在全年展望方面，尤其是在利潤率方面，沒有採取更積極的策略的原因？

Yes, Chris, I think -- look, we are very happy with the start, and I think it really does give us confidence as we think about the year. But it is just one quarter in an environment where I think it makes sense to be prudent. You have got an operating and currency environment that is pretty volatile. Consumer demand is somewhat soft. It is soft especially in emerging markets. And then we have got a lot going on in the transformation agenda.

是的，克里斯，我認為——你看，我們對開局非常滿意，我認為這確實給了我們信心，讓我們對今年的比賽充滿信心。但這只是在一個我認為謹慎行事是明智之舉的環境下的一個季度而已。你們的營運和貨幣環境波動性很大。消費者需求略顯疲軟。尤其是在新興市場，情況比較脆弱。此外，我們在轉型議程方面也有很多工作要做。

So while we are executing well and we are doing the things that we can control, at least they are on track, I would just say that the first quarter gives us a nice foundation to feel confident about the year. And we will leave it at that.

所以，雖然我們執行得很好，也做著我們能控制的事情，至少一切都在按計劃進行，但我認為第一季為我們奠定了良好的基礎，讓我們對今年充滿信心。我們就說到這裡吧。

Okay. And just a quick follow-up for you. In relation to the -- vol/mix was a little stronger than I thought in the quarter, and you made some comments about elasticity in some markets. I just wanted to get a sense of maybe you can characterize the pricing environment and price in particular to currency driven-cost inflation. And just the competitive response. Are there markets we should watch out for where you are taking prices up, but competitors have not moved yet, for example?

好的。還有一件事要跟進一下。關於－本季的波動率/組合比我預想的要強一些，你也對某些市場的彈性發表了一些評論。我只是想了解一下，您能否將當前的定價環境，特別是價格，與貨幣驅動的成本通膨聯繫起來進行描述。以及競爭對手的反應。例如，在某些市場中，你們已經提價，但競爭對手尚未跟進，我們應該密切關注這些市場嗎？

No. Actually, Chris, I think a big part of the strong vol/mix performance that you are seeing is that we have now gotten a lot of that behind us. Our gaps are closing. We have continued to invest in our franchises, particularly our Power Brands, and that is playing itself through in vol/mix, as well as in our share performance.

不。實際上，克里斯，我認為你現在看到的強勁音量/混音表現很大程度上是因為我們已經克服了很多這方面的問題。我們的差距正在縮小。我們持續投資於我們的特許經營品牌，特別是我們的強勢品牌，這在銷售/產品組合以及我們的市場份額表現中都得到了體現。

I think the markets that we have called out like Russia, like Brazil, that remain quite challenging from an inflationary and currency standpoint, are the places where there probably will continue to need to be some pricing. But, for the most part, most of that pricing is behind us, and that gives us great confidence with the foundation that we have built.

我認為我們提到的那些市場，例如俄羅斯和巴西，從通膨和貨幣角度來看仍然相當具有挑戰性，這些市場可能還需要一些定價機制。但總的來說，大部分定價問題已經過去，這讓我們對我們所建立的基礎充滿信心。

Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

安德魯·拉扎爾，巴克萊銀行。

I had just two quick things from me. First off, Brian, in the guidance around full-year margins, you reaffirmed the 15% to 16% range, but I think on the fourth-quarter call, you had specifically pointed to the low end of that range because you had deconsolidated Venezuela at the time. So that wasn't mentioned again this time. Is that just because of the better start around margins to the year, or am I just making more of it than I should?

我還有兩件事要簡單說一下。首先，布萊恩，在全年利潤率指引中，你重申了 15% 至 16% 的範圍，但我認為在第四季度電話會議上，你特別指出了該範圍的下限，因為當時你已經將委內瑞拉的業務從合併報表中剔除。所以這次就沒再提這件事了。這只是因為年初利潤率較高，還是我高估了它？

No. I said, it is about a 200 basis point margin improvement, is what we are expecting, and that is the current outlook. So that does put you at the lower end of that range, and it is 200 basis points. So we feel pretty good about that. No change. No change.

不。我說過，我們預期利潤率將提高約 200 個基點，這也是目前的預期。所以這確實讓你處於該範圍的下限，即 200 個基點。所以我們對此感覺相當不錯。沒有變化。沒有變化。

Okay. And then, Irene, you had mentioned that, excluding these strategic actions that you have taken on the top line, that you are growing about in line with your categories globally. Does that mean that, even though Easter was a benefit to global category growth by about a point, that it was not much of a benefit to Mondelez? (multiple speakers)

好的。然後，艾琳，你曾提到，撇開你在營收方面採取的這些策略行動不談，你在全球範圍內的成長與你的各個類別保持一致。這是否意味著，儘管復活節對全球品類成長帶來了約一個百分點的提振，但對億滋國際來說卻並沒有帶來太多好處？（多位發言者）

Andrew, the simple answer is there is a difference between consumption and shipment. So Easter was essentially only a week earlier. So most of our shipments last year were in the first quarter. It doesn't change that much. But, obviously, the consumers' purchasing pattern happens within a week or so of the holiday. So you are going to see the impact. Our consumption was closer to the overall category growth, but our shipments don't reflect that. One, because of revenue management, but, two, because it didn't have that much of an impact on our shipments to our customers.

安德魯，簡單的答案是消費和出貨是有區別的。所以復活節其實只提前了一周。因此，我們去年的大部分出貨量都集中在第一季。變化不大。但很顯然，消費者的購買模式會在假期前後一週左右發生。所以你會看到這種影響。我們的消費量更接近整個品類的成長，但我們的出貨量卻沒有反映出這一點。第一，是因為收入管理；第二，是因為這對我們向客戶的出貨並沒有造成太大影響。

Okay. Got it. And then, the sustainability of developed markets volume that you saw and the improvement in -- clearly, in the first quarter, there was an easier comparison in Europe in the year ago. There was a competitive recall in parts of Europe as well. So I am just trying to get a sense of your level of visibility and comfort that developed markets volume can kind of remain more sustainably in positive territory as we go forward.

好的。知道了。此外，已開發市場交易量的可持續性以及改善——顯然，第一季歐洲與去年同期相比更容易進行比較。歐洲部分地區也出現了競爭性召回。所以，我只是想了解您對已開發市場交易量能否在未來持續保持正成長的預期和信心程度。

No. We feel very good about the underlying momentum in our developed markets. Strong vol/mix performance, as well as -- they were doing that while Europe is up 400 basis points and North America up almost 300 basis points. So I feel very good about the work that they -- the hard work that they did over the course of the last year to get the business fit to win and then the opportunity now to build on top of that base. So I think the underlying momentum that we are seeing is solid and will continue for the balance of the year.

不。我們對已開發市場的潛在成長動能感到非常樂觀。成交量/組合表現強勁，而且——與此同時，歐洲上漲了 400 個基點，北美上漲了近 300 個基點。所以我對他們過去一年來為使公司具備獲勝能力所做的努力感到非常滿意，現在他們有機會在此基礎上繼續發展。所以我認為我們目前看到的潛在成長勢頭是穩固的，並將持續到今年年底。

Andrew, that was improving in the second half of last year as well. So it is not surprising.

安德魯，去年下半年他的情況也有所改善。所以這並不奇怪。

Yes. It is not a totally new phenomenon.

是的。這並非一種全新的現象。

Bryan Spillane, Bank of America.

布萊恩·斯皮蘭，美國銀行。

Just wanted to follow-up on Andrew's question, just in terms of building organic sales growth over the balance of the year because the comparisons get a little more difficult balance of the year, and it sounds as if maybe Brazil, Russia, China, from a macro perspective, a little bit weaker than maybe what you were planning going into the year. And I am not sure how we should think about Nabisco, if there is some contingency or some potential disruption we have to factor in in terms of balance of the year organic growth.

我只是想跟進一下 Andrew 的問題，就今年剩餘時間如何實現有機銷售增長而言，因為到了年底，比較會變得更加困難，而且從宏觀角度來看，巴西、俄羅斯、中國等國的增長可能比你們年初的計劃要弱一些。我不確定我們應該如何看待納貝斯克，是否存在一些突發情況或潛在的干擾因素，我們需要將其納入今年剩餘時間的有機成長中。

So, if you could just talk through, A), our net, your view in terms of the macro, the same, better, or worse than they were going into the year, and then where we should look for drivers to get to that organic sales growth over the balance of the year, given that the comps get a little bit more difficult? Thanks.

所以，如果您能談談以下幾點，A）從宏觀角度來看，您認為我們的淨銷售額是與年初持平、更好還是更差？鑑於同店銷售額的比較難度加大，我們應該在哪些方面尋找驅動因素，才能在今年剩餘時間實現有機銷售成長？謝謝。

Well, Bryan, again, the comps do get more difficult, but in part it was because we began -- as Brian said, we began to make investments. We got a lot of the pricing behind us as we were in the back half of last year. And so the foundational things that we are doing in terms of reinvesting in high ROI, marketing initiatives and continuing the expansion of some of our proven innovation platforms, all of that is in place.

布萊恩，沒錯，比較確實變得越來越困難，但部分原因是因為我們開始——正如布萊恩所說，我們開始進行投資。去年下半年，我們已經解決了大部分定價問題。因此，我們在對高投資回報率的行銷舉措進行再投資以及繼續擴展一些我們已證明有效的創新平台方面所做的基礎性工作，所有這些都已到位。

As you saw in the first quarter, our A&C is up over 9% of revenue. We are continuing to invest in our key franchises, and that will just continue as the year progresses. So yes, we have a headwind from some of these more volatile emerging markets. But, as we said in our -- as I said in my remarks, we feel pretty comfortable that we have accounted for those against the stronger momentum that we should see everywhere else.

正如您在第一季所看到的，我們的A&C收入成長超過9%。我們將繼續投資於我們的主要特許經營業務，隨著時間的推移，這種投資將繼續。是的，我們確實面臨著來自一些波動性較大的新興市場的不利影響。但是，正如我們在演講中所說——正如我在講話中所說，我們相當有信心，我們已經考慮到了那些不利因素，而這些不利因素與我們在其他任何地方應該看到的更強勁的勢頭相悖。

And just -- Nabisco, should we be -- or North America, should we just be thinking or having to factor in some sort of probability or chance that there is some disruption? Just trying to figure out how to accommodate that or factor that in.

那麼——納貝斯克，我們是否應該——或者說北美，我們是否應該考慮或必須考慮到某種可能性或機遇，即可能會出現一些中斷？我只是想弄清楚如何解決這個問題或如何把這一點考慮進去。

Yes. Brian, I guess it is hard to predict where the negotiations go, and the magnitude of an impact would really depend on the outcome of those negotiations.

是的。布萊恩，我想很難預測談判的走向，其影響程度其實取決於談判的結果。

I think, as I said, we will encourage incur some one-time costs, but that is about building business continuity, capability, and being ready. We are trying to strike a balance, I would say, between the inventory necessary and a business continuity plan, but also the incremental costs.

我認為，正如我所說，我們會鼓勵大家承擔一些一次性成本，但這關乎業務連續性、能力建構和做好準備。我認為，我們正在努力在必要的庫存和業務連續性計劃之間取得平衡，同時也要考慮增量成本。

So we have taken into account in our plans the possibility of disruption, but, again, we will plan accordingly, and we will deal with that as it happens. But it is hard to predict where that goes.

因此，我們在計劃中已經考慮到了可能出現的中斷情況，但是，我們會相應地制定計劃，並根據實際情況進行應對。但很難預測事態會如何發展。

Jason English, Goldman Sachs.

Jason English，高盛集團。

First, a couple housekeeping items for you, Brian. Thank you for all the detail on the guidance. I am wondering -- you didn't touch on was the equity income line. It came in a little bit stronger than we were expecting. How should we think about that line item in the P&L as we move forward?

首先，布萊恩，有幾件家事要跟你說。感謝您提供的所有詳細指導。我想問的是──你沒有提到的是權益收入這一項。它的強度比我們預想的要強一些。展望未來，我們該如何看待損益表中的這項項目？

And then, also, sticking below the line, interest expense, 2% was a bit lower. Your guidance suggests it is going to step up. I guess the question there is why. Was there something unique about interest expense, a benefit that is not going to continue on the forward?

此外，在基準線以下，利息支出也略低，為 2%。你的指導表明它將會加強。我想，這裡的問題是為什麼。利息支出方面是否有特殊之處，或者說，這種優勢在遠期合約中不會持續？

Yes. On the equity income line, as I said, the two larger investments there, JDE and Keurig, both delivered in line with our expectations, maybe a little bit better in the quarter. I don't see anything that changes our expectation for the year. They are delivering on commitments, and I don't think that changes at all.

是的。正如我所說，在權益收益方面，兩項較大的投資，JDE 和 Keurig，都達到了我們的預期，本季可能略好一些。我認為沒有什麼會改變我們對今年的預期。他們正在履行承諾，我認為這一點不會改變。

Interest expense, as I signaled in the comments, we are telling you it goes down by about $25 million for the year. It reflects the lower run rate we are seeing in some of the finance -- refinancing activities we had in the first quarter and a little bit of currency. We are not necessarily dropping that through in terms of the outlook, but it does provide a little bit of an opportunity there.

正如我在評論中提到的，我們告訴大家，今年的利息支出將減少約 2500 萬美元。這反映了我們目前在一些金融領域看到的較低運作率——第一季的再融資活動和一些貨幣兌換活動。我們可能不會放棄這種前景，但這確實帶來了一些機會。

Got it. That's helpful. And can you enlighten us on what your expectations are for the equity income line? I don't think you -- if you touched on it previously.

知道了。那很有幫助。您能否為我們說明一下您對股權收益線的預期？我不認為你——如果你之前提到過的話。

And then, the second question goes back to the comments on trade budget optimization that I think you introduced on the last call. I am just curious if you could give us an update on how those plans are progressing, if we are at a stage where there has been any deployment of different strategies or tactics, and what the learning has been so far?

然後，第二個問題回到了您上次電話會議上提出的關於貿易預算優化的評論。我只是好奇您能否向我們介紹一下這些計劃的進展情況，我們是否已經到了部署不同戰略或戰術的階段，以及到目前為止我們吸取了哪些經驗教訓？

Yes, I will take the first part. On JDE and Keurig, we provided a page in the web deck that gives you the pieces to estimate that for the year. Nothing has really changed with that. And, again, these are private companies. We don't plan on providing a lot of visibility to the ongoing performance or the details of that.

是的，我來做第一部分。關於 JDE 和 Keurig，我們在網頁資料中提供了一個頁面，其中包含了估算全年績效所需的資訊。這一點其實沒有什麼改變。再次強調，這些都是私人公司。我們不打算過度公開正在進行的比賽或比賽細節。

Yes.

是的。

With respect to revenue management, Jason, we think the opportunity is sizable, particularly on the trade side, and particularly as we think about increasingly focusing on our Power Brands and on our high return activities.

傑森，關於收入管理，我們認為機會很大，尤其是在貿易方面，特別是當我們考慮越來越關注我們的強勢品牌和高回報活動時。

The challenge, of course, is the pace of implementation because it does have an impact in the short term, typically on volume, on share, on customer relationships, and so our approach remains to strike the right balance among all of those variables. But I am quite confident you will continue to see the benefits of that playing through our margin profile.

當然，挑戰在於實施的速度，因為它確實會在短期內產生影響，通常會對銷售量、份額和客戶關係產生影響，因此我們的方法仍然是在所有這些變數之間取得適當的平衡。但我非常有信心，您將會繼續從我們的利潤率中看到這些優勢。

Yes. Got it.

是的。知道了。

Robert Moscow, Credit Suisse.

羅伯特·莫斯科，瑞士信貸。

A question about category growth in biscuits. In prior quarters, you have shown a slide showing the global category growth rate, and I don't think I see it here. But last quarter you said it was 7%. And if you are gaining share in 80% of your categories this quarter, the implication is that the category has slowed substantially. I wanted to know, could you give us a little color on that? Is that just kind of inflationary pricing in 2015 that just isn't happening now in 2016, or is there something else happening for the category in biscuits that we should know about?

關於餅乾品類成長的問題。在前幾季度，你們曾展示過一張投影片，顯示全球品類成長率，但我在這裡似乎沒有看到。但上個季度你說的是7%。如果你本季在 80% 的品類中都獲得了市場份額，那就代表該品類的成長速度已經大幅放緩。我想知道，您能給我們詳細介紹一下嗎？2015 年的通膨定價現像在 2016 年是否已經消失，還是餅乾品類發生了其他我們應該了解的事情？

Well, good question, Rob. I would tell you that probably the single biggest impact on the overall category growth is the US. It is our biggest biscuit market, and we did see that category slowing down. There is a lot of factors that contribute there. Some of our biggest customers are changing some of their merchandising policies, which is having an impact. I think we are still performing quite well within those constraints, but it is having somewhat of an impact on our overall performance.

問得好，羅布。我認為，對整個品類成長影響最大的單一因素可能是美國。這是我們最大的餅乾市場，我們確實看到該品類的成長速度正在放緩。造成這種情況的原因有很多。我們的一些大客戶正在改變他們的一些商品銷售政策，這產生了一定的影響。我認為在這些限制條件下，我們仍然表現得相當不錯，但這確實對我們的整體表現產生了一定的影響。

So I think the facts are, our revenue in aggregate in North -- our biscuit revenue in North America was up almost 3%. Very strong vol/mix, but the category itself was a little weaker than we had seen, and our approach to that is just to continue to invest in our strong brands, to continue to introduce innovation like Oreo Thins and Good Thins which are driving very strong results, and continuing to leverage the fact that we have got much more flexibility in our packaging capability as a result of the addition of assets like Salinas.

所以我認為事實是，我們在北美的總收入——我們在北美的餅乾收入成長了近 3%。銷售/組合非常強勁，但品類本身比我們之前看到的要弱一些，對此我們採取的策略是繼續投資於我們的強勢品牌，繼續推出像 Oreo Thins 和 Good Thins 這樣帶來強勁業績的創新產品，並繼續利用我們因收購 Salinas 等資產而獲得的包裝能力更大的靈活性這一優勢。

So we are clearly in charge of the category performance here in the US, and we have very strong plans in place to continue to drive that. So I would not read anything more than that into these results.

因此，我們顯然掌控著美國市場的品類表現，並且我們已經制定了非常強而有力的計劃來繼續推動這一目標的實現。所以，我不會對這些結果做出任何其他解讀。

Appreciate the color. One quick follow-up. Could you give us more specifics on what this overhead shift into second quarter is? Why would it shift from first quarter into second quarter, Brian?

欣賞這種顏色。還有一個後續問題。您能否詳細說明這部分成本轉移到第二季的具體情況？布萊恩，為什麼會從第一季轉到第二季？

It is just simply the timing of some spending that we would have initially, probably, expected in the first quarter that is sliding into the second quarter. So we saw a little bit of a benefit on our SG&A in Q1, and it will be a little bit of a headwind in Q2. Total year doesn't change at all.

這只是因為一些原本預計在第一季發生的支出，現在推遲到了第二季。因此，我們在第一季的銷售、一般及行政費用方面看到了一些好處，但在第二季將會面臨一些不利因素。全年總金額完全不變。

Matthew Grainger, Morgan Stanley.

馬修‧格蘭傑，摩根士丹利。

I just had two questions. First, you have talked in recent quarters about the potential to begin to rebuild margins in some of your key emerging market regions, and I think the expectation was that this could be more of a 2017 and 2018 dynamic. We are still seeing headwinds in Eastern Europe, Latin America, (inaudible) Asia. During the quarter, margins were covered pretty sharply and read an all-time high at around 16%. So just curious, Brian, what drove the margin performance there? Whether that was market mix or more sustainable recovery that we could see carry forward through the year?

我只有兩個問題。首先，您在最近幾季談到了在一些主要新興市場地區重建利潤率的可能性，我認為大家的預期是，這可能會在 2017 年和 2018 年更加明顯。我們仍然看到東歐、拉丁美洲、（聽不清楚）亞洲面臨逆風。本季利潤率得到了很好的彌補，達到了約 16% 的歷史新高。布萊恩，我很好奇，是什麼因素推動了那裡的利潤率表現？是市場結構的變化，還是我們今年可以看到的更永續的復甦？

Well, I think it starts with ultimately getting the pricing right, which is, clearly, what is driving EEMEA and Latin America in the short term. But I do think it is the fundamental work that we are doing on getting net productivity to flow through and gross margins improving, while these regions are also doing ZBB and implementing shared services and all the things that are helping us reduce overhead.

我認為，最終還是要從定價入手，這顯然是短期內推動歐洲、中東和非洲以及拉丁美洲市場發展的因素。但我認為，我們正在進行的基礎性工作是提高淨生產力和毛利率，同時這些地區也在實施零基預算、共享服務以及所有有助於我們降低管理費用的措施。

So the fundamental cost structure in the regions has gotten better. If we can get pricing right in the markets, we will see improvement there. And that is what we saw in both EEMEA and Asia-Pacific in the quarter, and Latin America was really the pricing challenge and the currency dynamics in Brazil that hurt us. So good progress there, but it is the same fundamental game plan and initiatives that are driving margins everywhere.

因此，這些地區的基本成本結構有所改善。如果我們能夠合理調整市場定價，我們就會看到市場狀況有所改善。而這正是我們本季在 EEMEA 和亞太地區所看到的，拉丁美洲的情況則是定價挑戰和巴西的貨幣動態對我們造成了傷害。所以這方面取得了不錯的進展，但推動各地獲利成長的基本策略和措施都是一樣的。

Okay. Thanks. And, Irene, I wanted to come back to the Good Thins launch and just get a better sense of how you are thinking about the rollout and the marketing resources there. I know it is still early so we probably haven't seen a huge amount in the marketplace yet, but should we expect to see a stepped up big bet on A&C, or is this the case where you're going to be working more with social media and building out gradually?

好的。謝謝。艾琳，我想再談談 Good Thins 的發布，更了解你對產品推廣和行銷資源的考慮。我知道現在還為時過早，所以我們可能還沒有在市場上看到大量的成果，但是我們是否應該期待看到A&C方面加大投入，還是說你們會更多地利用社交媒體，逐步發展壯大？

No, we have accounted for it in the context of our overall A&C. We are getting very good returns on our investments behind our Power Brands in the US, and we are going to continue to make those investments. So it is accounted for in our aggregate budget. We are very pleased with the early response both from our customers and from our consumers. As I mentioned, it is a [1:4] share after just a couple of weeks in the market. And so we will support it, but it is accounted for in the overall A&C targets that we have given to you.

不，我們已經在整體A&C的背景下考慮了這一點。我們在美國對旗下強勢品牌的投資獲得了非常好的回報，我們將繼續進行這些投資。因此，這筆費用已計入我們的總預算。我們對客戶和消費者的早期回饋感到非常滿意。正如我之前提到的，上市僅僅幾週後，它的股價就達到了 [1:4]。因此，我們將予以支持，但這已納入我們向你們提出的整體A&C目標中。

David Palmer, RBC Capital Markets.

David Palmer，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

You mentioned that you remain cautious about the volatile economic environment. I was wondering if you could give more color about the trends you are seeing in markets like Russia and Brazil. And, of course, you have the benefit of seeing dollars and volume by week and month. And are you seeing that -- the decline rates stabilize, or is that volatility or the deterioration in recent months just making it too difficult to make a call about the bottom in (inaudible)? Thanks.

您提到您對當前動盪的經濟環境仍保持謹慎。我想請您詳細介紹一下您在俄羅斯和巴西等市場觀察到的趨勢。當然，您也可以按週和按月查看金額和交易量。您是否看到下跌速度趨於穩定，還是說近幾個月的波動或惡化使得判斷底部已經到來變得太難了？ （聽不清楚）謝謝。

David, it is a little hard to tell you, are we at the bottom. What we are seeing is certainly worse than what we are seeing last year, and our team is managing through it. There is a little bit of a different situation in Russia versus Brazil, but they are both inflationary markets that are causing us to have to price, and it is having some impact on our categories and on consumer demand.

大衛，很難告訴你，我們是不是已經跌到谷底了。我們現在看到的情況肯定比去年更糟，但我們的團隊正在努力應對。俄羅斯和巴西的情況略有不同，但它們都是通貨膨脹市場，導致我們不得不提高價格，這對我們的產品類別和消費者需求產生了一定的影響。

So we do remain cautious about the operating environment in both of those markets. We don't see any near-term catalyst. Too much of a change. But we are also not expecting it to get dramatically worse.

因此，我們對這兩個市場的經營環境仍然保持謹慎。我們看不到任何近期內的催化劑。變化太大了。但我們也不認為情況會急劇惡化。

So, again, as I said in my remarks, we believe we have accounted for it in the outlook that we are giving to you, but it is one of the reasons that we are being cautious as we think about our outlook for the future.

所以，正如我在演講中所說，我們相信我們已經在向你們提供的展望中考慮到了這一點，但這正是我們在思考未來展望時保持謹慎的原因之一。

And then, just a quick follow-up on Europe. Can you give some color about the improving trends there? Is this really all about the competitive price gaps? And with the comparison (inaudible) in Germany, does it feel like you are turning the corner after this first quarter? Thanks.

然後，再簡單跟進一下歐洲的情況。能詳細介紹一下這方面的改善趨勢嗎？這一切真的只是價格競爭差距的問題嗎？與德國的情況相比（聽不清楚），你覺得經過第一個季度後，你們的情況是否正在好轉？謝謝。

The simple answer is yes. We have taken a number of steps in Europe to get ourselves fit to win, and I am very pleased with the progress that the team has made. Without a doubt, we took a very significant revenue management action in Germany last year. We will lap that as we exit the second quarter. And the rest of our business, I am actually quite pleased to see strong performance on our chocolate business in Germany, ex that customer. We have gotten a terrific response to the incremental investments we have made in our UK chocolate business where our shares are up almost a point in that geography. Our Power Brands are performing well. So I think we needed to reset our base and address the cost impact on our P&L. We have done that, and you are seeing their impact in our gross margins, our operating margins, as well as a return to growth in the region.

答案很簡單，是的。我們在歐洲採取了一系列措施來提升自身實力，爭取贏得比賽，我對球隊的進步感到非常滿意。毫無疑問，我們去年在德國採取了一項非常重要的收入管理措施。我們將在第二節比賽結束時超越這個數字。至於我們其他的業務，我很高興地看到我們在德國的巧克力業務表現強勁，除了那位客戶之外。我們在英國巧克力業務上的增量投資得到了非常好的反響，我們在該地區的股價上漲了近一個百分點。我們的主力品牌表現良好。所以我認為我們需要重新調整基礎，並解決成本對損益表的影響。我們已經做到了這一點，你們也看到了這些措施對我們的毛利率、營業利潤率以及該地區恢復成長的影響。

Ken Goldman, JPMorgan.

Ken Goldman，摩根大通。

It is Josh Levine on for Ken. Irene, you mentioned strong productivity that drove the gross margin improvements in the quarter. Can you help us think about the drivers to the gross margin in more detail? Specifically maybe how much came from new plants, inflation, SKU rationalization that may have gone over and above your typical productivity plans? Just any help you can offer about how sustainable those gains were would be great. Thanks.

喬許·萊文代替肯上場。艾琳，你提到強勁的生產效率推動了本季毛利率的提高。您能否幫助我們更詳細地思考影響毛利率的因素？具體來說，有多少成本來自新工廠、通貨膨脹、SKU 精簡等因素，這些因素可能超出了您通常的生產計劃？如果您能提供任何關於這些成果如何可持續的信息，那就太好了。謝謝。

Simple answer, Josh, is that they are quite sustainable. The bulk of that net productivity is just coming from some of the fundamental work we have done with our teams on Lean Six Sigma and the improvements that we are seeing as a result of that. And that is a gift that keeps giving.

喬希，簡單的答案是：它們非常永續。大部分淨生產力都來自於我們團隊在精實六西格瑪所做的一些基礎性工作，以及由此帶來的改善。這是一份永不枯竭的禮物。

We certainly are beginning to see some of the benefits of the 40-plus Lines of the Future that are operating around the world, and that is part of the algorithm that allows us to have great confidence, not only about our margin targets for this year, but the 2017 to 2018 target that we have given to you as well.

我們確實開始看到全球營運的 40 多條未來航線帶來的一些好處，這也是我們演算法的一部分，使我們不僅對今年的利潤目標充滿信心，而且對我們向您提出的 2017 年至 2018 年的目標也充滿信心。

So it is a combination, but the bulk of it is driven by fundamental execution of our productivity programs around the world and we are very pleased with that performance.

所以這是一個綜合因素，但主要還是得益於我們在全球範圍內有效執行生產力提升計劃，我們對這一成果非常滿意。

Thanks. And maybe just one quick follow-up. There had been some recent news about you being in negotiations to sell a bunch of brands and some plants in Europe. I guess just comment on some of the strategies there, some of the reasons for it, and then, to what extent maybe we could see more of that in the future. Thanks.

謝謝。或許還需要一個簡短的後續問題。最近有消息稱，你正在洽談出售歐洲的一些品牌和工廠。我想就其中的一些策略、一些原因以及未來我們可能會在多大程度上看到更多此類策略發表一些評論。謝謝。

Yes. Look, we continue to focus on Power Brands as a priority, and clearly there are some opportunities as you look at parts of our portfolio. We have an announced transaction that was in the press, involving parts of our French business we sold to Eurazeo, which, for us, these are a very rational set of actions that are consistent with our agenda here.

是的。你看，我們仍然將重點放在實力品牌上，而且很明顯，在我們投資組合的某些部分中存在一些機會。我們已經宣布了一項交易，該交易已在媒體上公佈，涉及我們出售給 Eurazeo 的法國業務的部分內容。對我們來說，這是一系列非常合理的行動，與我們在這裡的議程相符。

So we focus on Power Brands and our portfolio. We simplify our supply chain and allows us to invest behind the brands that have the highest returns.

因此，我們專注於實力品牌和我們的產品組合。我們簡化了供應鏈，使我們能夠投資於回報最高的品牌。

So that transaction is something that will likely close in 2017 as we get through regulatory approvals and (inaudible) and all the things that go with that. But I would say that is just part of what we are doing as we think about focusing on Power Brands. And there could be more opportunities like that, but nothing to talk about today.

因此，隨著監管部門的批准以及（聽不清楚）和所有相關事宜的解決，這筆交易很可能在 2017 年完成。但我想說，這只是我們在考慮專注於實力品牌時所做工作的一部分。或許還會有更多類似的機會，但今天沒什麼好說的。

Alexia Howard, Bernstein.

Alexia Howard，Bernstein。

Can I ask about the advertising spending? You talked about it being above -- the A&C spending being above 9%. How much was that up year on year, and what is the outlook for subsequent quarters in the year? Is it going to be up more or perhaps less going forward?

請問一下廣告支出狀況如何？你提到它高於——A&C 支出高於 9%。與去年同期相比成長了多少？今年接下來幾季的前景如何？接下來它的運作頻率會更高還是更低？

And maybe just to touch on innovation. Where are the big white space opportunities that you are really getting your teeth into this year? What are the main applications of the innovation pipeline in terms of new products at the moment?

或許還可以簡單談談創新。今年你真正著手開拓的重大市場機會有哪些？目前創新流程在新產品的主要應用是什麼？

Thank you and I will pass it on.

謝謝，我會轉達的。

So, first of all, with respect to A&C, our -- A&C is up about low single digit, mid to low single digits, and again it is part of our overall plan to continue to improve our share of voice. You will see that going up for the full year. So there is nothing anomalous about the first quarter, and we are very pleased that, given the strong performance that we are seeing on our margin improvement, we have the opportunity not only to drop that money to the bottom line, but also to reinvest in areas that get a good return for us.

首先，關於廣告和廣告業務，我們的廣告和廣告業務成長了大約個位數，中個位數到低個位數，這也是我們整體計劃的一部分，旨在繼續提高我們的市場份額。你會看到這個數字全年都在上漲。因此，第一季並沒有什麼異常之處，而且我們非常高興地看到，鑑於我們在利潤率改善方面表現出色，我們不僅有機會將這些資金投入到利潤中，還可以再投資到能為我們帶來良好回報的領域。

With respect to innovation, we continue to have a very strong portfolio of platforms, and you will continue to see us take those ideas around the world. And so, for example, Oreo Thins, started in China. We have expanded it to the US, Canada, now into Australia. It is going to be about a $200 million business for us this year. belVita Crunchy we started in many markets with a soft version. We now have a hard version. We call it belVita Crunchy. That is going to be about $500 million for us this year as we expand into a variety of different markets.

在創新方面，我們仍然擁有非常強大的平台組合，您將繼續看到我們將這些理念推廣到世界各地。例如，奧利奧薄脆餅乾就起源於中國。我們已將業務拓展到美國、加拿大，現在又拓展到澳洲。今年這項業務將為我們帶來約 2 億美元的收入。belVita Crunchy，我們最初在許多市場推出的是軟皮版本。我們現在有了困難版。我們稱它為 belVita Crunchy。今年，隨著我們拓展到各種不同的市場，這筆支出將達到約 5 億美元。

We have a number of innovations on our Cadbury Dairy Milk and Milka franchises that we are taking around the world. So net net, we have been seeing a double-digit contribution to our revenue growth from these innovations, and you will see that continue and a portion of our investment as I talk about spending in the 9% to 10% range on A&C. A portion of that is in support of those franchises.

我們在吉百利牛奶巧克力和妙卡巧克力品牌上進行了多項創新，並將這些創新推廣到世界各地。總的來說，這些創新為我們的營收成長貢獻了兩位數，而且正如我所說，我們將在A&C方面投入9%到10%的資金，你會看到這種情況繼續下去。其中一部分用於支持這些特許經營權。

Dave Driscoll, Citigroup.

戴夫·德里斯科爾，花旗集團。

Thank you for squeezing me in here. I appreciate it. So I had two questions. The first one was just on the constant currency outlook of 2% or better. Can you talk a little bit about the components of price and volume? I would assume that because foreign exchange pressures are lower, you don't need to take as much pricing as you were previously contemplating. So would it mean that the price piece has come down and then commensurately you would expect volumes to go up because of elasticities, positive elasticities?

謝謝你擠出時間讓我進來。謝謝。所以我有兩個問題。第一個預測是以固定匯率計算，預期漲幅為 2% 或更高。能談談價格和成交量的構成要素嗎？我推測，由於外匯壓力降低，您無需像之前考慮的那樣進行大量的定價。那麼，這是否意味著價格下降了，然後由於彈性（正彈性），你會預期銷量會相應上升？

Simple answer is yes, David. So (multiple speakers).

答案很簡單，是的，大衛。所以（多位發言者）。

All right.

好的。

As we said to you, our long-term algorithm is a much better balance between pricing and vol/mix. We were very skewed in these last two years or so because of the very significant impact of currencies, as well as some of our imports like cocoa.

正如我們之前所說，我們的長期演算法在定價和銷售/組合之間實現了更好的平衡。過去兩年左右，由於貨幣匯率的重大影響，以及可可等一些進口商品的影響，我們的財務狀況出現了很大的偏差。

As we move forward, we should see a much different relationship, and I think you are starting to see the impact of that play through in our first quarter. As you can see, pricing is a lesser impact, and we are starting to see -- even though vol/mix in aggregate is still negative, it is an improved trend, and certainly I am very pleased to see three of our five regions with positive vol/mix.

隨著比賽的進行，我們應該會看到一種截然不同的關係，我認為你們已經開始從第一季的比賽中看到這種變化的影響了。如您所見，價格的影響較小，我們開始看到——儘管總體銷量/組合仍為負值，但這是一個改善的趨勢，當然，我很高興地看到我們五個地區中有三個地區的銷量/組合為正值。

Maybe, Irene, just to say this. But since the 2% number doesn't change, then it has almost got to be like offsetting effects that go on. Pricing comes down, volume goes up. And I just wanted to be clear that that is, in fact, how to think about this thing. And I know you guys put the plus sign by the 2%, so we never really know exactly what the figure is.

或許，艾琳，我只是想說這句話。但既然 2% 這個數字沒有改變，那麼這幾乎肯定是一種相互抵消的影響。價格下降，銷量上升。我只是想明確一點，這實際上就是思考這件事的正確方式。我知道你們會在 2% 旁邊加上加號，所以我們永遠無法確切地知道這個數字是多少。

But the right answer here is that you would see whenever pricing doesn't come down or however much it is lower than the previous estimate, the volume elasticity will make up for it.

但正確的答案是，無論價格如何變化，無論價格比之前的預估低多少，銷售彈性都會彌補這一點。

Hey, David. It is Dexter. Just kind of quick clarification. Currently, you may recall that in developed markets this year, we said was going to be positive vol/mix for the year, and emerging markets, excluding Brazil and Russia, would be positive for the year. Including Brazil and Russia, emerging markets volume would be negative. We really think of a total Company view, but yes, you are right. The pricing benefit, obviously, should be much more muted than it was last year given the currency dynamics and the commodity dynamics, and trends in vol/mix will definitely improve versus last year as well. And you started to see that play through in the first quarter.

嘿，大衛。是德克斯特。簡單澄清一下。目前，您可能還記得，我們​​曾表示，今年已開發市場的波動率/組合將為正，而除巴西和俄羅斯以外的新興市場今年也將為正值。如果將巴西和俄羅斯也包括在內，新興市場交易量將為負值。我們確實會考慮公司的整體情況，但你說得對。顯然，考慮到貨幣和商品市場的動態變化，價格方面的優勢應該比去年小得多，而且波動率/組合趨勢也肯定會比去年有所改善。你在第一節就開始看到這種戰術了。

Okay. And then, Brian, just one question for you. But it is -- it might be a fascinating question here. Do you have an assessment on what the impact is to Mondelez from the new treasury rules that were issued on April 4? It seems like there is three areas that there could be some impact, whether it is tax rate, share repurchase or cash repatriation. Do you have any assessment for us on any impacts from those new treasury rules?

好的。布萊恩，我最後一個問題想問你。但的確如此──這或許是個引人深思的問題。您能否評估一下4月4日發布的新財政部法規對億滋國際的影響？似乎有三個方面可能會受到影響，無論是稅率、股票回購或現金匯回。您能否就這些新的財政部規定可能產生的影響向我們提供任何評估？

David, what I would say is, we continue to work through that. I would tell you that, as we work through it, from a tax rate standpoint for modeling purposes, we don't anticipate any impact. There are some other things, as you have mentioned, that we will continue to work through and gain a better understanding of how they may affect us. But nothing to share at this point.

大衛，我想說的是，我們會繼續努力解決這個問題。我可以告訴你們，從稅率建模的角度來看，我們預計不會有任何影響。正如您所提到的，還有一些其他的事情，我們將繼續研究並更好地了解它們可能會對我們產生的影響。但目前沒有什麼可以透露的。

I will now turn the call back to management for closing remarks.

現在我將把電話轉回給管理階層，請他們作總結發言。

It is Dexter. Thanks for joining the call this morning. Be happy to take any further calls or comments as the day -- the rest of the week and, of course, over the course of the day. And I will be around to take any calls. Thank you, again.

是德克斯特。感謝您今天上午參加電話會議。非常樂意在當天、本週剩餘時間以及一天中的任何時間接聽您的電話或接受您的評論。我會隨時接聽電話。再次感謝。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。