微晶片科技 (MCHP) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Microchip's Q2 fiscal year 2025 financial results conference call. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Microchip 2025 財年第二季財務業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）。提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。

I'd now like to turn the conference over to our host, Mr. Eric Bjornholt, CFO. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我想將會議轉交給我們的東道主、財務長 Eric Bjornholt 先生。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good afternoon, everyone. During the course of this conference call, we will be making projections and other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company.

大家下午好。在本次電話會議期間，我們將對未來事件或公司未來財務表現做出預測和其他前瞻性陳述。

We wish to caution you that such statements are predictions and that actual events or results may differ materially. We refer you to our press releases of today as well as our recent filings with the SEC that identify important risk factors that may impact Microchip's business and results of operations.

我們希望提醒您，此類陳述僅為預測，實際事件或結果可能會有重大差異。我們建議您參閱今天的新聞稿以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件，其中確定了可能影響 Microchip 業務和營運績效的重要風險因素。

In attendance with me today are Ganesh Moorthy, Microchip's President and CEO; Rich Simoncic, Microchip's COO; and Sajid Daudi, Microchip's Head of Investor Relations. I will comment on our second-quarter fiscal year 2025 financial performance.

今天與我一起出席的有 Microchip 總裁兼執行長 Ganesh Moorthy； Rich Simoncic，Microchip 營運長；以及 Microchip 投資者關係主管 Sajid Daudi。我將評論我們 2025 財年第二季的財務表現。

Rich will then review some product line updates and Ganesh will then provide commentary on our results and cash return strategy as well as an overview of our current business environment. We will then be available to respond to specific investor and analyst questions.

Rich 將審查一些產品線更新，Ganesh 將對我們的業績和現金回報策略發表評論，並概述我們當前的業務環境。然後我們將可以回答具體的投資者和分析師的問題。

We are including information in our press release and this conference call on various GAAP and non-GAAP measures. We have posted a full GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation on the Investor Relations page of our website at www.microchip.com, and included reconciliation information in our earnings press release, which we believe, you will find useful when comparing our GAAP and non-GAAP results. We have also posted a summary of our outstanding debt and our leverage metrics on our website.

我們在新聞稿和本次電話會議中納入了有關各種公認會計原則和非公認會計原則措施的資訊。我們已在我們網站www.microchip.com 的投資者關係頁面上發布了完整的GAAP 與非GAAP 調節表，並在我們的收益新聞稿中包含了調節信息，我們相信，在比較我們的GAAP 和非GAAP 時，您會發現這些資訊很有用。我們也在我們的網站上發布了未償債務和槓桿指標的摘要。

I will now go through some of the operating results, including net sales, gross margin, and operating expenses. Other than net sales, I will be referring to these results on a non-GAAP basis which is based on expenses prior to the effects of our acquisition activities, share-based compensation, and certain other adjustments as described in our earnings press release and in the reconciliation on our website.

我現在將介紹一些經營業績，包括淨銷售額、毛利率和營運費用。除了淨銷售額之外，我將在非公認會計原則的基礎上提及這些結果，該結果基於我們的收購活動影響之前的費用、基於股份的薪酬以及我們的收益新聞稿和中所述的某一些其他調整。

Net sales in the September quarter were $1.164 billion, which was down 6.2% sequentially. We recently settled an ongoing legal matter with one of our licensees. The impact of the settlement was the release of a $13.3 million accrual, which increased revenue and gross profit by $13.3 million in the September 2024 quarter. We have posted a summary of our net sales by product line and geography on our website for your reference.

9 月季度的淨銷售額為 11.64 億美元，季減 6.2%。我們最近與我們的一位被授權人解決了正在進行的法律問題。和解的影響是釋放 1,330 萬美元的應計費用，這使得 2024 年 9 月季度的收入和毛利增加了 1,330 萬美元。我們已在網站上發布了按產品線和地理位置劃分的淨銷售額摘要，供您參考。

On a non-GAAP basis, gross margins were just above the midpoint of our guidance at 59.5%, including capacity underutilization charges of $25.9 million as we continue to manage production activities to adjust the challenging business conditions. Without the benefit of the legal settlement mentioned earlier, the non-GAAP gross margins would have been 59.1%.

以非公認會計準則計算，毛利率略高於我們指引的中點 59.5%，其中包括 2,590 萬美元的產能利用不足費用，因為我們繼續管理生產活動以調整充滿挑戰的業務環境。如果沒有前面提到的法律和解，非 GAAP 毛利率將為 59.1%。

Operating expenses were at 30.3% of net sales and operating margin was 29.3%. Non-GAAP net income was $250.2 million and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share was $0.46, which was $0.03 ahead of the midpoint of our guidance and positively impacted by $0.02 from the aforementioned legal settlement.

營運費用佔淨銷售額的 30.3%，營運利潤率為 29.3%。非 GAAP 淨利潤為 2.502 億美元，非 GAAP 攤薄每股收益為 0.46 美元，比我們指導的中點高出 0.03 美元，並受到上述法律和解的 0.02 美元的積極影響。

On a GAAP basis on the September quarter, gross margins were 57.4%. As you may recall, in August 20, we announced that a cybersecurity incident had impacted our business operations. And on September 4, we announced that this incident was unlikely to materially impact our financial condition or results of operations.

以 GAAP 計算，九月季的毛利率為 57.4%。您可能還記得，8 月 20 日，我們宣布網路安全事件影響了我們的業務運作。 9 月 4 日，我們宣布這起事件不太可能對我們的財務狀況或經營業績產生重大影響。

During the close process for the September quarter, we evaluated the financial impact of the breach, including unscheduled factory outages, and although the incident did not materially impact our financial condition or results of operations, we determined that the total cost impact of the incident was approximately $21.4 million. The majority of this cost is attributed to incremental factory underutilization charges resulting from a cybersecurity incident.

在9 月季度的關閉過程中，我們評估了違規行為的財務影響，包括計劃外的工廠停電，儘管該事件並未對我們的財務狀況或營運業績產生重大影響，但我們確定該事件的總成本影響約2140萬美元。其中大部分成本歸因於網路安全事件導致的工廠未充分利用費用增加。

Total operating expenses were $521.9 million and included acquisition and intangible amortization of $122.7 million, special charges of $1.5 million, share-based compensation of $42 million, and $3.6 million of other expenses. GAAP net income was $78.4 million, resulting in $0.14 in earnings per diluted share.

總營運費用為 5.219 億美元，其中包括 1.227 億美元的收購和無形攤銷、150 萬美元的特殊費用、4,200 萬美元的股權激勵以及 360 萬美元的其他費用。 GAAP 淨利潤為 7,840 萬美元，稀釋後每股收益為 0.14 美元。

Our non-GAAP cash tax rate was 13% in the September quarter, which was in line with our guidance. Our non-GAAP tax rate for fiscal year 2025 is expected to be about 13%, which is exclusive of the transition tax and any tax audit settlements related to taxes accrued in prior fiscal years.

我們九月季度的非公認會計原則現金稅率為 13%，符合我們的指導。我們 2025 財年的非公認會計準則稅率預計約為 13%，其中不包括過渡稅和與上一財年應計稅款相關的任何稅務審計和解。

We are still hopeful that the tax rules requiring companies to capitalize R&D expenses will be pushed out or repealed. If this were to happen, we would anticipate about a 200 basis points favorable adjustment to Microchip's non-GAAP tax rate in future periods.

我們仍然希望要求公司將研發費用資本化的稅收規則將被推遲或廢除。如果這種情況發生，我們預計 Microchip 的非 GAAP 稅率在未來期間將進行約 200 個基點的有利調整。

Our inventory balance at September 30, 2024, was $1.34 billion, which was up $31.6 million from the end of the June 2024 quarter. We had 247 days of inventory at the end of the September quarter, which was up 10 days from the prior quarter's level.

截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日，我們的庫存餘額為 13.4 億美元，比 2024 年 6 月季度末增加了 3,160 萬美元。截至 9 月季度末，我們的庫存天數為 247 天，比上一季的水準增加了 10 天。

At the midpoint of our December 2024 quarter guidance, we would expect both inventory dollars and days to increase. We also continue to invest in building inventory for long-lived, high-margin products whose manufacturing capacity is being end of life by our supply chain partners, and these last-time buys represented 18 days of inventory at the end of September quarter.

在 2024 年 12 月季度指導的中點，我們預計庫存金額和天數都會增加。我們也繼續投資為長壽命、高利潤產品建立庫存，這些產品的製造能力已被我們的供應鏈合作夥伴淘汰，這些最後一次購買代表了 9 月季度末 18 天的庫存。

Inventory at our distributors in the September quarter was at 40 days, which was down three days from the prior quarter's level. Distribution took their inventory holdings in the September quarter down as distribution sell-through was about $95 million higher than distribution sell in.

9 月季度我們經銷商的庫存為 40 天，比上一季的水準減少了三天。分銷商在 9 月季度的庫存量有所下降，因為分銷商的銷售額比分銷商的銷售額高出約 9500 萬美元。

Our cash flow from operating activities was $43.6 million in the September quarter, and was negatively enacted by the timing of interest and tax payments, including the transition tax -- payment that is paid annually and was part of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. We have one more transition tax payment that is due in the September quarter of 2025.

9 月季度我們的營運活動現金流量為 4,360 萬美元，利息和稅款的支付時間對我們產生了負面影響，其中包括每年支付的過渡稅，它是 2017 年減稅和就業法案的一部分。我們還有一筆過渡稅需於 2025 年第 9 季繳納。

[Kantar] adjusted free cash flow was $14 million in the September quarter. As of September 30, our consolidated cash and total investment position was $286.1 million. Our total debt increased by $256 million in the September quarter and was negatively impacted by the higher tax and interest payments than the previous quarter.

[Kantar] 9 月季度調整後的自由現金流為 1,400 萬美元。截至 9 月 30 日，我們的綜合現金和總投資部位為 2.861 億美元。我們的總債務在 9 月季度增加了 2.56 億美元，並且受到比上一季更高的稅收和利息支付的負面影響。

Our adjusted EBITDA in the September quarter was $405.7 million and 34.9% of net sales. Our trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA was $2.61 billion. Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA was $2.85 as of September 30, 2024, up from $1.28 December 30, 2023. Capital expenditures were $2.8 million in the September quarter.

九月季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 4.057 億美元，佔淨銷售額的 34.9%。我們過去 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA 為 26.1 億美元。截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日，我們的調整後 EBITDA 淨債務為 2.85 美元，高於 2023 年 12 月 30 日的 1.28 美元。

Our expectation for capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 is about $150 million and we expect fiscal year 2026 capital expenditures to be lower than that as we have a lot of capacity to grow back into as well as capital that we purchased during the up cycle that has not yet been placed in service.

我們對 2025 財年的資本支出的預期約為 1.5 億美元，我們預計 2026 財年的資本支出將低於該數字，因為我們有大量的成長能力以及我們在經濟成長週期中購買的資本。使用。

Depreciation expense in the September quarter was $41.2 million.

9 月季度的折舊費用為 4,120 萬美元。

I will now turn it over to Rich, who will provide some commentary on our product line performance and innovations in the September quarter. Rich?

我現在將其交給 Rich，他將對我們在九月季度的產品線表現和創新提供一些評論。富有的？

Thank you, Eric, and good afternoon, everyone. We are strategically investing in and launching innovative technologies across high-growth sectors. We believe these advancements are positioning us to capture emerging opportunities and drive long-term value creation. In the microcontroller space, our new dsPIC33A Digital Signal Controller core with its 32-bit architecture and double precision floating point unit is driving innovation in critical sectors and industrial automation, it's enabling more precise, energy-efficient motor control for smart factories and renewable energy systems powering advanced great inverters and solar installations as well as power supplies for GPU and CPU based data centers.

謝謝你，埃里克，大家下午好。我們正在對高成長產業進行策略性投資和推出創新技術。我們相信，這些進步使我們能夠抓住新興機會並推動長期價值創造。在微控制器領域，我們的新型dsPIC33A 數位訊號控制器核心採用32 位元架構和雙精度浮點單元，正在推動關鍵領域和工業自動化的創新，為智慧工廠和再生能源實現更精確、更節能的馬達控制為先進的大型逆變器和太陽能裝置以及基於 GPU 和 CPU 的資料中心供電的系統。

We believe this positions us strongly in a growing clean energy market as evidenced by our recently released electric vehicle charger reference designs. We have further expanded our MPU offerings with our PIC64GX multi-core 64 vehicle processors, targeting secure intelligent edge systems that require multiple applications to run simultaneously on a single platform.

我們相信，這使我們在不斷增長的清潔能源市場中佔據有利地位，我們最近發布的電動車充電器參考設計證明了這一點。我們透過 PIC64GX 多核心 64 個車輛處理器進一步擴展了我們的 MPU 產品，針對需要多個應用程式在單一平台上同時運行的安全智慧邊緣系統。

Similarly, our new PIC64 high-performance space computer, radiation hard and MPU, complete with built-in AI accelerators and advanced Ethernet connectivity represents a significant step forward for the compute needs of space exploration and satellite deployment.

同樣，我們的新型 PIC64 高效能太空電腦、抗輻射硬體和 MPU，配有內建 AI 加速器和先進的乙太網路連接，代表太空探索和衛星部署的運算需求向前邁出了重要一步。

For high-performance space commuters we are sole sourced in aerospace and defense applications for this compute function and working with numerous customers on early development of applications.

對於高效能太空通勤者，我們在航空航太和國防應用中獨家採購此運算功能，並與眾多客戶合作進行應用程式的早期開發。

In our data center and networking business, we are focused on evolving data center needs. Our family of PCIe switches and high-performance PCIe SSD controllers are now in mass production. And widely adopted by customers. These product families are designed and optimized to meet the high-speed connectivity and high-performance storage needs of standard and AI accelerated service.

在我們的資料中心和網路業務中，我們專注於不斷變化的資料中心需求。我們的 PCIe 交換器系列和高效能 PCIe SSD 控制器現已投入量產。並被客戶廣泛採用。這些產品系列經過設計和優化，旨在滿足標準和人工智慧加速服務的高速連接和高效能儲存需求。

We're also seeing increased end customer qualification activity with our CXL controller solutions which will enable larger server memory footprint and improve the efficiency of data center service.

我們還看到我們的 CXL 控制器解決方案的最終客戶資格認證活動增加，這將實現更大的伺服器記憶體佔用並提高資料中心服務的效率。

We believe these solutions position us well to address the evolving needs of next-generation data centers.

我們相信這些解決方案使我們能夠很好地滿足下一代資料中心不斷變化的需求。

In the automotive sector, we are expanding our single parent Ethernet portfolio, where the new 1,000 base T15 supporting extended cable lengths Additionally, we are excited about the launch of our VelocityDRIVE software platform, an automotive qualified multi-gigabit unmet switches, which are now available to support the next generation of software devices and industrial applications.

在汽車領域，我們正在擴展我們的單母乙太網路產品組合，其中新的1,000 Base T15 支援延長的電纜長度。未滿足的交換機，現已推出可用於支援下一代軟體設備和工業應用。

These innovations underscore our commitment to providing cutting-edge solutions across renewable energy, automotive, aerospace, defense, and data center sectors. We are making it easier for our customers to give smarter, more efficient products, laying the groundwork for future growth in these dynamic marketplaces.

這些創新凸顯了我們致力於在再生能源、汽車、航空航太、國防和資料中心領域提供尖端解決方案的承諾。我們致力於讓客戶更輕鬆地提供更智慧、更有效率的產品，為這些充滿活力的市場未來的成長奠定基礎。

With that, I will pass the call to Ganesh for comments about our business and guidance going forward. Ganesh?

接下來，我將致電 Ganesh，徵求對我們業務和未來指導的意見。加內什？

Thank you, Rich, and good afternoon, everyone. As Eric described in his prepared remarks, our September quarter results benefited from the settlement of a legal matter with one of our licensees. Including this benefit, our net sales were down 6.2% sequentially, and our non-GAAP gross margin, non-GAAP operating margin and non-GAAP diluted EPS were all better than the midpoint of our guidance.

謝謝里奇，大家下午好。正如埃里克（Eric）在他準備好的演講中所描述的那樣，我們九月季度的業績得益於與我們的一個被許可人之間的法律問題的和解。包括這一收益在內，我們的淨銷售額比上一季下降了 6.2%，我們的非 GAAP 毛利率、非 GAAP 營業利潤率和非 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益均優於我們指導的中位數。

Excluding the benefit of the legal settlement, our September quarter results were consistent with our guidance, with net sales down 7.3% sequentially as we continue to navigate through an inventory correction that's occurring in the midst of significant macro -- for many manufacturing businesses, especially those in the industrial end markets.

排除法律和解帶來的好處，我們9 月季度的業績與我們的指導一致，淨銷售額環比下降7.3%，因為我們繼續應對在重大宏觀經濟形勢下發生的庫存調整——對於許多製造企業來說，尤其是那些在工業終端市場。

Excluding the legal settlement benefit, non-GAAP gross margin came in just over the midpoint of our guidance at 59.1%. Non-GAAP operating margin came in at the midpoint of our guidance at 28.5% as we continue to manage our expenses by balancing the short-term realities and the long-term growth opportunities. Our consolidated non-GAAP diluted earnings per share came in $0.01 ahead of guidance at $0.04 per share.

不計法律和解收益，非 GAAP 毛利率略高於我們指引值的中點，為 59.1%。由於我們繼續透過平衡短期現實和長期成長機會來管理支出，因此非 GAAP 營業利潤率為我們指引的中位數 28.5%。我們的綜合非 GAAP 攤薄每股收益比指引價值 0.04 美元高出 0.01 美元。

My thanks to our worldwide team for their support, hard work and diligence as we continue to navigate a difficult environment and focus on controllable actions that we believe position us well to thrive in the long term.

我感謝我們的全球團隊在我們繼續應對困難的環境並專注於可控行動時給予我們的支持、辛勤工作和勤奮，我們相信這些行動使我們能夠長期蓬勃發展。

Now for some color about the September quarter and the general business environment. All regions of the world and most of our end markets exhibited varying degrees of weakness. The exceptions were aerospace and defense, and the artificial intelligence subset of data center.

現在我們來了解一下九月季度和整體商業環境。世界所有地區和我們的大部分終端市場都表現出不同程度的疲軟。航空航天和國防以及資料中心的人工智慧子集除外。

Our business in Europe, which is concentrated in the industrial and automotive markets was particularly weak, with revenue down almost 20% on a sequential basis. Our broad base of customers continue to manage their inventory tightly and adjust their purchasing plans in the face of a weak macro environment for manufacturing, high interest rates, inventory in their channels, very short lead time for our products and an uncertain business outlook.

我們在歐洲的業務（主要集中在工業和汽車市場）尤其疲軟，營收季減了近 20%。面對製造業宏觀環境疲軟、利率高企、通路庫存不足、產品交貨期短以及業務前景不確定的情況，我們廣大客戶繼續嚴格管理庫存並調整採購計劃。

This combination of factors we believe is driving lower consumption and continued inventory destocking, as well as reductions in target inventory levels at multiple levels.

我們認為，這些因素的綜合作用正在推動消費下降和庫存持續去庫存，以及多個層面的目標庫存水準的降低。

At our direct customers, at contract manufacturers and distributors who buy from us, and our indirect customers who buy through our distributors and in many cases at our customers' customers. The early signs of green shoots in our business we saw in the March and June quarter progressed at an uneven pace.

我們的直接客戶，從我們這裡購買的合約製造商和分銷商，以及透過我們的經銷商購買的間接客戶，在許多情況下是我們客戶的客戶。我們在三月和六月季度看到的業務復甦的早期跡象，進展速度參差不齊。

With bookings staying -- on a quarterly basis, but continuing to age over shorter periods of time with an increasing number of requests for expedites of new orders as well as shipment date pull-ins for previously placed orders and with cancellations and pushouts declining to normal levels.

預訂量按季度保持不變，但在較短的時間內持續老化，新訂單加急請求數量不斷增加，之前下的訂單的發貨日期提前，取消和取消訂單量也降至正常水平水平。

We believe these factors are positive signs for the formation of a bottom in our business despite low customer confidence in the macro environment, and resultant low visibility for our business. Our average lead times continue to be about 8 weeks or less.

儘管客戶對宏觀環境的信心較低，導致我們業務的可見度較低，但我們相信這些因素是我們業務觸底形成的正面訊號。我們的平均交貨時間仍然約為 8 週或更短。

While the short lead times are resulting in reduced near-term visibility, as customers delay placing orders since they have high confidence that supply is readily available. We also believe short lead times during a period of business uncertainty are helping customers navigate the uncertain environment successfully and improve the quality of backlog placed with us.

雖然交貨時間短導致近期能見度降低，但客戶推遲下訂單，因為他們對供應很容易獲得。我們也相信，在業務不確定時期，較短的交貨時間有助於客戶成功應對不確定的環境，並提高我們積壓的訂單品質。

We have adjusted our operational systems to adapt to this uncertain environment and preposition semifinished and finished goods inventory as best as we can to be able to accept and ship the turns orders we need for the December quarter. Our factories around the world are continuing to run at lower utilization rates in order to help control inventory levels.

我們調整了我們的作業系統，以適應這種不確定的環境，並儘可能預置半成品和成品庫存，以便能夠接受和運送我們在 12 月季度所需的輪換訂單。我們世界各地的工廠繼續以較低的利用率運行，以幫助控制庫存水準。

Our internal capacity expansion actions remain paused and we expect our capital investments in fiscal year '25 as well in fiscal year '26 will be at or below the low end of our long-term range of 3% to 6% of revenue as we plan to use the inventory we have invested in as well as our underutilized capacity to support the initial phases of the next up cycle.

我們的內部產能擴張行動仍處於暫停狀態，我們預計 25 財年以及 26 財年的資本投資將等於或低於我們計劃的佔收入 3% 至 6% 的長期範圍的下限利用我們投資的庫存以及未充分利用的產能來支持下一個上升週期的初始階段。

We are also prepared for the long-term growth of our business, on the one hand, in partnership with our foundry and outsourced single-test partners. And on the other hand, with the optionality of deploying capital, which we have purchased, but not yet placed into service for our internal factories.

一方面，我們也與我們的代工廠和外包單測試合作夥伴合作，為業務的長期成長做好了準備。另一方面，我們可以選擇部署資本，我們已經購買了這些資本，但尚未為我們的內部工廠投入使用。

While there remains uncertainty about the shape of the future recovery, we do expect it to arrive as it has in all prior semiconductor cycles, and we believe we are well prepared for the things we can control to exploit whatever the market recovery will look like.

儘管未來復甦的形式仍存在不確定性，但我們確實預計它會像之前所有半導體週期一樣到來，我們相信，我們已經做好了充分準備，可以控制一切，以利用市場復甦的情況。

On the CHIPS Act front, we are making progress towards concluding a final agreement that is consistent with the goals of the CHIPS program and with our business values. And we are cautiously optimistic that this could happen no later than the end of December.

在 CHIPS 法案方面，我們正在努力達成一項符合 CHIPS 計畫目標和我們的商業價值的最終協議。我們謹慎樂觀地認為，這最晚可能會在 12 月底發生。

Now let's get into the guidance for the December quarter. While we believe substantial inventory destocking has occurred at our customers, channel partners and their downstream customers, we remain in an environment of continuing macro uncertainty for our customers and result in low visibility force.

現在讓我們來看看 12 月季度的指導。雖然我們相信我們的客戶、通路合作夥伴及其下游客戶已經發生了大量庫存去庫存，但我們的客戶仍然處於持續宏觀不確定性的環境中，導致可見度較低。

Additionally, the December quarter has historically been our seasonally weakest quarter, and it's when that are the most manufacturing holidays, especially in Europe and the Americas. And it is also the time of the year when customers can reduce inventory on the year-ending balance sheet.

此外，從歷史上看，12 月季度是我們季節性最弱的季度，也是製造業假期最多的時候，尤其是在歐洲和美洲。而且這也是一年中客戶可以減少年末資產負債表上的庫存的時候。

In the current economic environment, many customers have also indicated that they intend to take an extended year-end shutdown. While we need terms orders and customer-driven pull-ins within the quarter to meet our guidance, and operating in a high turns environment has historically been normal for Microchip, it is challenging to predict and plan for during abnormal times as we're in today.

在目前的經濟環境下，不少客戶也表示打算延長年底停工時間。雖然我們需要本季度內的條款訂單和客戶驅動的拉入來滿足我們的指導，並且在高週轉環境中運營對於Microchip 來說歷來是正常的，但在異常時期預測和計劃是具有挑戰性的，因為我們正處於今天。

Taking all the factors we have discussed on the call into consideration, we expect our net sales for the December quarter to be between $1.025 billion and $1.095 billion. We expect our non-GAAP gross margin to be at 57% and 59% of sales, we expect our non-GAAP operating expenses to be between 33.2% and 34.8% of sales. We impact our non-GAAP operating profit to be between 22.2% and 25.8% of sales and we expect our non-GAAP diluted earnings per share to be between $0.25 and $0.35.

考慮到我們在電話會議上討論的所有因素，我們預計 12 月季度的淨銷售額將在 10.25 億美元至 10.95 億美元之間。我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率將分別佔銷售額的 57% 和 59%，我們預計非 GAAP 營運費用將佔銷售額的 33.2% 至 34.8%。我們將非 GAAP 營業利潤控制在銷售額的 22.2% 至 25.8% 之間，預計非 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益將在 0.25 美元至 0.35 美元之間。

We expect the long-term growth to be driven by a combination of our new product innovation as well as the strength of our design in activity. Rich has already provided a summary of several of the new product innovation results.

我們預計長期成長將由我們的新產品創新以及我們的設計實力相結合來推動。 Rich已經總結了幾項新產品的創新成果。

On the design in front, after 2 years-plus of dealing with shortages and redeploying their innovation resources towards mitigating the impact of shortages, our customers for the last year plus have returned to prioritizing their innovation projects. The result of the strong design-in pipeline across all end markets, megatrends and key customers, which is amplified by our total system solutions approach to take advantage of our broad portfolio of solutions.

在前面的設計中，經過兩年多的時間處理短缺問題並重新部署創新資源以減輕短缺的影響，我們的客戶在過去一年多已經恢復了優先考慮他們的創新項目。這是跨越所有終端市場、大趨勢和主要客戶的強大設計管道的結果，我們的整體系統解決方案方法進一步放大了這一結果，以利用我們廣泛的解決方案組合。

The impact of this growing design pipeline is muted in the current environment where excess inventory gets most of the attention and design in activity takes time to gestate into production. But design win momentum is what we expect will drive above-market long-term growth. We believe the fundamental characteristics of growth, profitability and cash generation of our business remain intact, but is suppressed in the current business environment. We're confident that our solutions remain the engine of innovation for the applications and end markets we serve.

在當前環境下，這種不斷增長的設計管道的影響是微乎其微的，在這種環境下，過剩的庫存受到了大部分關注，而活動中的設計需要時間才能醞釀成生產。但我們預期設計獲勝動力將推動高於市場的長期成長。我們相信，我們業務的成長、獲利能力和現金產生的基本特徵保持不變，但在當前的商業環境中受到抑制。我們相信，我們的解決方案仍然是我們所服務的應用和終端市場的創新引擎。

This down cycle we're in has been the most prolonged and challenging down cycle, I can recall during my 43 years in the industry. And we believe it could set up a strong cycle reversal at some point in 2025, and we remain committed to executing our strategic imperatives, which we believe will deliver sustained results and substantial shareholder value.

在我43年的產業經驗中，我們所處的這個下行週期是最漫長、最具挑戰性的下行週期。我們相信，它可能會在 2025 年的某個時候出現強勁的周期逆轉，我們仍然致力於執行我們的戰略要務，我們相信這將帶來持續的業績和可觀的股東價值。

Let me wrap up with an update about our capital return to shareholders. In the September quarter, we returned $261 million to shareholders through a combination of $243.7 million in dividends and $17.3 million in stock purchase in the open market. This represented 92.5% of our adjusted free cash flow in the June quarter.

最後，讓我介紹一下我們對股東的資本回報的最新情況。在 9 月的季度中，我們透過 2.437 億美元的股息和在公開市場購買 1,730 萬美元的股票，向股東返還了 2.61 億美元。這占我們第二季調整後自由現金流的 92.5%。

Since achieving investment-grade rating in November 2021, we have returned $4.8 billion of capital to shareholders through the September 2024 quarter, of which $2.4 billion represented shares repurchased, which is about 5% of our shares outstanding. We are continuing towards our target of returning 100% of our adjusted free cash flow to shareholders by the March 2025 quarter with the dividend being the fixed component and share buybacks being the variable component. We expect that due to the timing of cash payments, occasionally, our adjusted free cash flow may dip below the fixed component represented by the dividend.

自 2021 年 11 月獲得投資等級以來，截至 2024 年 9 月季度，我們已向股東返還 48 億美元資本，其中 24 億美元為股票回購，約占我們已發行股票的 5%。我們將繼續實現 2025 年 3 月季度將調整後自由現金流 100% 返還給股東的目標，其中股息為固定部分，股票回購為可變部分。我們預計，由於現金支付的時間安排，我們調整後的自由現金流有時可能會低於股利所代表的固定部分。

In such situations, as you heard during Eric's prepared remarks about the September quarter, we expect to temporarily increase our borrowings to pay the dividend and then repay those borrowings in subsequent quarters from the free cash flow generated that is in excess of the dividends paid. With this approach, we aim to stay consistent with our capital return strategy, without causing it to increase our debt permanently.

在這種情況下，正如您在埃里克準備的有關九月季度的講話中所聽到的那樣，我們預計將暫時增加借款以支付股息，然後在隨後的季度中用超過支付股息的自由現金流償還這些借款。透過這種方法，我們的目標是與我們的資本回報策略保持一致，而不導致其永久增加我們的債務。

With that, Matt, would you please poll for questions?

那麼，馬特，請您投票提問好嗎？

Great. Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Timothy Arcuri, UBS.

偉大的。謝謝。 （操作員說明）Timothy Arcuri，UBS。

Thanks a lot. of Ganesh. Ganesh, I wanted your perspective on how long you think it could take the distribution channel to get back to normal. If I look at your drawdown in revenue. Basically, it was all of distribution this quarter. So it seems like things are actually relatively okay beyond that channel. So if you look at inventory days, it's about 2 times what it was before COVID.

多謝。加尼什的。 Ganesh，我想了解您認為分銷管道需要多長時間才能恢復正常的看法。如果我看看你的收入減少。基本上，本季全部都是分銷。所以看起來，除了這個管道之外，事情實際上還算順利。因此，如果你看一下庫存天數，你會發現它大約是新冠疫情爆發前的兩倍。

I mean do you think that 20 days of inventory is still what that channel wants to hold? And given your discussions with them, how long do you think it could take to clear that channel?

我的意思是，您認為 20 天的庫存仍然是該頻道想要持有的嗎？鑑於您與他們的討論，您認為清理該頻道可能需要多長時間？

So maybe 2 points of data first, 20 days was towards the low end of where we were during COVID. If you look at over time, closer to 30 plus or minus is where distribution days of inventory have been. Second, those days of inventory are calculated on a backward-looking revenue basis. And when you are in a steep decline and expecting to bottom and grow again, the backward-looking days of inventory isn't always the most helpful calculation, although it is the calculation that is consistent across quarters.

因此，首先可能有 2 個數據點，20 天是我們在新冠疫情期間的最低值。如果您查看一段時間內的情況，您會發現庫存配送天數接近 30 正負。其次，這些庫存天數是根據回溯收入計算的。當你處於急劇下降並期望觸底並再次增長時，回顧庫存天數並不總是最有用的計算，儘管它的計算在各個季度都是一致的。

Now that said, in this cycle, the distribution inventory is not just driven by what are they carrying. But sometimes, their customers and their customers, customers and their customers' channels also have inventory that is destocking.

話雖如此，在這個週期中，分銷庫存不僅僅由它們所攜帶的東西驅動。但有時，他們的客戶和他們的客戶、客戶和他們客戶的管道也有庫存正在去庫存。

And so what we're seeing is, depending on which customer, what region, which distributor, there's some of this where the distribution destocking is taking place. But what is less visible is destocking taking place at other places further downstream that had all been collecting during the strong quarters as we were in 2023 and 2022 as well.

因此，我們看到的是，根據哪個客戶、哪個地區、哪個分銷商，分銷庫存正在減少。但不太明顯的是，下游其他地方正在去庫存，這些庫存都是在強勁的季度中累積的，就像我們在 2023 年和 2022 年一樣。

So it's a bit more difficult to see. We know that distribution is destocking at the rate quite significantly over the last 3 quarters. But they have to get enough of a signal from their customers on that coming back. We do see some early signs of that, but there their request for expedites, the request for pull-ins and all of that. But it's hard to read beyond that given how little visibility there is in the market.

所以看起來有點困難。我們知道，過去三個季度分銷正在以相當顯著的速度去庫存。但他們必須從客戶那裡得到足夠的回歸訊號。我們確實看到了一些早期跡象，但他們要求加快速度，要求拉入等等。但考慮到市場上的知名度非常低，很難理解除此之外的內容。

Thanks a lot. And then, Eric, just a question on underutilization and how it could affect the shape of the gross margin recovery. The last quarter where you didn't take charges, I think, was the end of '23 when revenue was like [$1.08] a quarter. And so if your capacity hasn't really changed since then, does revenue have to get all the way back to [$1.08] before you're no longer burdened by underutilization. Can you talk through all that?

多謝。然後，埃里克，我想問一個關於利用率不足以及它如何影響毛利率復甦形狀的問題。我認為，您沒有收取費用的最後一個季度是 23 年底，當時每季的收入約為 [1.08 美元]。因此，如果從那時起您的產能沒有真正發生變化，那麼收入是否必須一路回到 [1.08 美元]，然後您才不再受到利用率不足的負擔。你能談談這一切嗎？

Yes. So that depends on what the slope of the revenue curve is as we -- and what our forecast is out in time when we get to that point in terms of how we're going to be ramping. So I can't put a revenue number around it of where that's going to be. But we're significantly underutilized today. That's going to continue, obviously, in the current quarter, and then we'll just gauge it as we go.

是的。因此，這取決於我們的收入曲線的斜率是多少，以及當我們達到這一點時我們對如何成長的預測。所以我無法給出一個收入數字來說明未來的情況。但今天我們的利用率明顯不足。顯然，這種情況將在本季繼續下去，然後我們將邊做邊評估。

But underutilization charges are having a pretty significant impact on our gross margin and our operating results. And on top of that, then we're building inventory and because we don't have great historical sales at this point, I'm looking backward a quarter. And then as we look forward, don't have a lot of backlog, our inventory reserve charges have been quite high also. And that at some point in time, is going to provide a tailwind to gross margin as the environment improves.

但利用不足的費用對我們的毛利率和經營績效產生了相當大的影響。最重要的是，我們正在建立庫存，因為我們目前沒有很好的歷史銷售量，所以我回顧了一個季度。然後，正如我們預期的那樣，不會有太多積壓，我們的庫存儲備費用也相當高。在某個時間點，隨著環境的改善，這將為毛利率帶來推動力。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.

Vivek Arya，美國銀行證券公司。

Thanks for taking my question. Ganesh, when we look across the space, there seems to be a wide range of corrections that we have seen across the diversified names, right? It seems like microcontrollers have been more impacted than analog, industrial more exposed than autos, but this combination of microcontrollers and industrial has corrected the most. What would you attribute that deal? Because it's just hard to imagine this 50% plus peak, hopefully trough correct? And then what is giving you the confidence that this is an industry and a cycle issue and maybe is there something company-specific in terms of share shifts or China in-sourcing.

感謝您提出我的問題。 Ganesh，當我們縱觀整個空間時，我們似乎在多元化的名稱中看到了廣泛的修正，對吧？似乎微控制器比模擬受到的影響更大，工業比汽車受到的影響更大，但微控制器和工業的結合已經糾正了最多的問題。您認為這筆交易的原因是什麼？因為很難想像這個 50% 以上的峰值，希望谷值是正確的嗎？然後是什麼讓你相信這是一個行業和周期問題，也許在股份轉移或中國內購方面存在公司特定的東西。

But just give us the perspective of how is Microchip stacking up versus the industry that you're in.

但請告訴我們 Microchip 與您所在行業相比如何。

I think you're right that this is asynchronous up cycle and down cycle. And so depending on exposure to end markets and exposure to certain regions of the world, results are going to be different. I think as I mentioned a quarter ago at our conference call, there was also different ways in which people try to deal with the up cycle and how to tackle the demand ferocity that was taking place at the time.

我認為你是對的，這是非同步的上行週期和下行週期。因此，根據對終端市場的敞口和對世界某些地區的敞口，結果將會有所不同。我認為正如我在一個季度前的電話會議上提到的那樣，人們嘗試以不同的方式應對上升週期以及如何應對當時發生的猛烈需求。

And so there is an overhang, obviously, that Microchip has, and I think many others have had, but to different degrees that is based on what people were buying in excess of what they needed. And so all of that has to correct and come through. Now what gives us confidence in our business is the connection to the customers that we have on programs, on plans that they have.

因此，很明顯，Microchip 有一個懸而未決的問題，我認為許多其他公司也有這個問題，但在不同程度上，這是基於人們購買的東西超出了他們的需求。因此，所有這些都必須得到糾正並實現。現在讓我們對我們的業務充滿信心的是我們與客戶在專案和計劃上的聯繫。

And really, as they give us more visibility into what is happening with their customers and their channels. The change in revenue isn't because revenue is moving from one supplier to a different supplier, it's really customers who got very, very optimistic, built ahead of demand thinking that their historical in '21, '22 time frame was going to be persistent demand.

事實上，因為他們讓我們更清楚地了解他們的客戶和管道正在發生的事情。收入的變化並不是因為收入從一個供應商轉移到了另一個供應商，而是因為客戶非常非常樂觀，超前於需求，認為他們在 21 年、22 年時間範圍內的歷史記錄將持續存在要求。

And then they got -- they ran into a macro issue where not only do they have high growth plans, higher inventory, but a much slowing demand. So those are all what is correcting through. The customers we have, remain the customers that are working with us. We are working with them on next-generation programs that they will launch as they get to the point where the current inventory is burned off and the new product can be launched. But our confidence comes from -- this is a market that has long cycles, long design in, long production cycles.

然後他們遇到了一個宏觀問題，他們不僅有高成長計劃、更高的庫存，而且需求大幅放緩。所以這些都是正在修正的內容。我們擁有的客戶仍然是與我們合作的客戶。我們正在與他們合作開發下一代計劃，當他們達到當前庫存消耗並可以推出新產品的程度時，他們將啟動這些計劃。但我們的信心來自——這是一個週期長、設計週期長、生產週期長的市場。

And we just need to get through. We're not in the early innings of a correction. We're in the later innings of the correction. And that's why our confidence is that this thing will turn around. It has turned around.

我們只需要渡過難關。我們還沒有處於修正的早期階段。我們正處於修正的後期階段。這就是為什麼我們有信心事情會好轉。它已經扭轉了。

And just as when we were on the upside, it looked like it was impossible to know how could we ever satisfy the demand. On the down cycle, you get the sense that how can we ever turn this thing around. But it does happen. It is a cyclical industry, and it will happen.

就像當我們處於上升趨勢時一樣，看起來我們不可能知道如何滿足需求。在下行週期中，你會感覺到我們如何扭轉局面。但它確實發生了。這是一個週期性行業，它會發生。

For my follow-up, just near-term clarification, what is the level of turns business that you are assuming for December versus normal? And then I know March is still a little bit further away, but if I go back in history, pre-COVID, usually, your March sales tended to be flat to up 1%, 2%. So any conceptual way you would help us think through what March might look like? Thank you.

對於我的後續行動，只是近期的澄清，您預計 12 月的營業額與正常水平相比是多少？然後我知道 3 月還有點遠，但如果我回顧一下歷史，在新冠疫情之前，通常情況下，3 月份的銷售額往往會持平，只增長 1%、2%。那麼您有什麼概念性的方式可以幫助我們思考三月會是什麼樣子嗎？謝謝。

Let me take the second one, and then I'll let Eric speak to the first one. I think with that little visibility as we have, we have a hard enough time trying to call the December quarter, let alone the March quarter. But the puts and takes of March typically, we'll see the Chinese New Year. And usually, there's about a 10-day a 14-day impact that comes. So that's the headwind.

讓我講第二個，然後我請艾瑞克講第一個。我認為，由於我們的能見度很低，我們很難確定 12 月的季度，更不用說 3 月的季度了。但通常情況下，三月的情況是，我們會看到農曆新年。通常，會產生大約 10 天到 14 天的影響。這就是逆風。

The tailwind is we have fewer production holidays in the Western countries in Europe and the Americas. And so you get more production days that happens. And typically, those have strength. And then you have to put to place whatever else takes place in terms of inventory that has been destocked and needs to be starting building closer to consumption. So a lot of puts and takes that go with it, but we're far away from trying to have visibility into the March quarter as we struggle through getting enough visibility into the December quarter.

有利的因素是我們在歐洲和美洲的西方國家的生產假期減少了。這樣你就可以獲得更多的生產天數。通常，這些人都有實力。然後，你必須將已經去庫存並需要開始建立更接近消費的庫存進行安排。因此，隨之而來的是許多看跌期權和賣出期權，但我們距離了解 3 月份季度的情況還很遙遠，因為我們正在努力獲得對 12 月份季度的足夠可視性。

I'll let Eric answer the first question relative to --

我會讓艾瑞克回答第一個問題——

Yes. I mean we don't break out turn specifically. We Ganesh's commentary that bookings continue to be weak in the September quarter. They were pretty much in line with where bookings were in the June quarter, and our book-to-bill was below parity. So our visibility continues to be not great out in time, but we've got short lead times and inventory available and can respond quite quickly and the orders that we are receiving from customers now are more in line with where our lead times are, and we're well positioned for that.

是的。我的意思是我們沒有專門進行回合。我們 Ganesh 的評論稱，九月季度的預訂量繼續疲軟。它們與六月季度的預訂量基本一致，而且我們的訂單出貨比低於平價。因此，我們的可見性仍然不是很好，但我們的交貨時間很短，庫存充足，可以很快做出回應，而且我們現在從客戶那裡收到的訂單更符合我們的交貨時間，我們已經做好充分準備了。

So the level of terms that we need is not outside of what we've seen historically, Microchip to be able to execute on and is obviously contemplated in the range of guidance that we gave today.

因此，我們需要的條款水平並不超出我們歷史上看到的水平，Microchip 能夠執行，並且顯然在我們今天提供的指導範圍內進行了考慮。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs.

Toshiya Hari，高盛。

Hi, good afternoon, and thank you so much for taking the question. I had two questions as well. My first one, I'm just curious how you're thinking about the gap today that exists between what you're selling in versus what is being sold through. And I know you don't have perfect visibility, but your December quarter revenue outlook. I think at the midpoint is 20% or 25% below where you were pre-pandemic? And if I recall correctly, late 2019, back then you were going through a cyclical correction.

你好，下午好，非常感謝你提出問題。我也有兩個問題。我的第一個問題是，我只是好奇您如何看待今天您所銷售的產品與正在銷售的產品之間的差距。我知道您沒有完美的可見性，但您對 12 月季度的收入前景有一定的了解。我認為中間值比疫情前低 20% 或 25%？如果我沒記錯的話，2019 年末，當時正在經歷週期性調整。

So you must be shipping well, well below what's being consumed. I'm curious if you have an estimation of how big that gap could be today

因此，您的運輸量必須遠低於消耗量。我很好奇你是否估計今天的差距有多大

So we don't have a -- we absolutely agree with you. We are shipping considerably under where consumption is taking place. As I speak to our customers to find how are they seeing the business, right? It is nowhere close to magnitude of what our business is going through. And I think that is the bullwhip effect we're seeing on the reverse side where they're trying to manage through their inventory channels and where they're at, plus some macros that -- macro things they're going through.

所以我們沒有——我們絕對同意你的觀點。我們的運輸量遠低於消費發生地。當我與客戶交談以了解他們如何看待我們的業務時，對嗎？這與我們的業務正在經歷的規模相差甚遠。我認為這就是我們在反面看到的牛鞭效應，他們試圖透過他們的庫存管道和他們所處的位置進行管理，再加上他們正在經歷的一些宏觀事情。

But our customer business is down substantially less than what our business is down. And that is what gives us the comfort that as they correct the inventory, they have to go back to a consumption level that is a lot higher we're at today.

但我們的客戶業務下降幅度遠小於我們業務的下降幅度。這讓我們感到欣慰的是，當他們糾正庫存時，他們必須回到比我們今天高得多的消費水準。

Got it. And then as my follow-up, I'm curious how you're thinking about blended pricing into calendar '25. And I know Ganesh historically, you've said that you operate a strategic business and it's less transactional than it used to be back in the day. But you've had a couple of peers point to low single-digit declines next year, mid-single-digit declines next year. I'm curious how at Microchip you're thinking about pricing as of today. Thank you.

知道了。然後，作為我的後續行動，我很好奇您如何考慮將混合定價納入日曆 '25。我從歷史上就認識 Ganesh，您說您經營的是策略業務，而且它的交易性比以前少。但有一些同業指出明年的跌幅較低，為個位數，而明年的跌幅為中個位數。我很好奇，截至目前，Microchip 是如何考慮定價的。謝謝。

I think in general, our direction has changed. Our pricing is pretty consistent year-over-year. The environment for new designs is, of course, a lot more competitive. There are players who are in some cases, being more aggressive than they were historically at. And we will match them to make sure that in the business that is important to us.

我認為總的來說，我們的方向已經改變了。我們的定價與去年同期相當一致。當然，新設計的環境競爭更加激烈。有些球員在某些情況下比歷史上更具侵略性。我們將匹配他們，以確保在業務中對我們很重要。

But we also have a substantial discipline in our process and how we go run it. And remember, it isn't just pricing, but we also have cost reductions that we're bringing on, which is what are we doing from -- in terms of design shrinks and other things we can do to be able to drive the margin side of the equation as well.

但我們在流程和運作方式上也有嚴格的紀律。請記住，這不僅僅是定價，而且我們還降低了成本，這就是我們正在做的事情——在設計縮小和我們可以採取的其他措施方面，以提高利潤率等式的一邊也是如此。

So will there be pricing pressure as we go throughout 2025? Yes. But a lot of it is going to be on new designs as they start going to production. And we have a substantial amount of existing designs that will continue to stay with where pricing and terms are today.

那麼 2025 年我們會面臨定價壓力嗎？是的。但當它們開始投入生產時，其中許多將採用新設計。我們有大量現有設計將繼續保持當前的定價和條款。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Chris Caso, Wolfe Research.

克里斯‧卡索，沃爾夫研究中心。

Yes. Thank you. I guess first question is on what you've been seeing by geography and it looks like there's some sharp differences there with particularly what you're seeing in Europe and is that just simply end market dependent, I guess, saying with the exposure to industrial and auto there. In addition, we've seen some others in the space talk about some strength in China. Can you speak to that and if that's been a partial offset for you?

是的。謝謝。我想第一個問題是關於您所看到的地理情況，看起來與您在歐洲看到的情況存在一些顯著差異，我想這只是簡單地取決於終端市場，即與工業的接觸有關和汽車那裡。此外，我們還看到該領域的其他一些人談論了中國的一些優勢。您能談談這一點嗎？

Sure. So Europe has a couple of factors in it. Historically, I don't know for whatever reason, Europe seems to enter cycle 1 to 2 quarters behind when we see it in the Americas. So on a down cycle, they start a little bit slower than that. But a big part of what we're seeing in Europe and the large sequential decline that we have seen in year-over-year declines we've seen have been the high percentage of industrial and automotive end market customers that we have there, so yes.

當然。所以歐洲有幾個因素。從歷史上看，我不知道出於什麼原因，當我們在美洲看到它時，歐洲似乎落後了 1 到 2 個季度。因此，在下行週期中，它們的啟動速度會比這慢一些。但我們在歐洲看到的情況以及我們所看到的同比下降的大幅連續下降的很大一部分是因為我們在那裡擁有很高比例的工業和汽車終端市場客戶，所以是的。

And I think you've seen that in the commentary for many others. And I see that in the commentary from many other industries with high exposure to Europe as well as that's where the biggest challenges are for anyone with a large industrial and automotive side of the business.

我想您已經在許多其他人的評論中看到了這一點。我在許多其他對歐洲有較高影響力的行業的評論中看到了這一點，這對於擁有大型工業和汽車業務的任何人來說都是最大的挑戰。

With respect to the other geographies, your question was about China. I would say that, and we don't quite break out China. But when you look at Greater China for us, which is Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, all combined on it, off the 4 regions or the 3 regions, the subset of Asia that represents Greater China would be the one where at least there is not weakness. There's not great strength. But it doesn't have the same weakness as we see in Europe and the Americas.

關於其他地區，你的問題是關於中國的。我想說的是，我們還沒有完全突破中國。但是，當你看看我們的大中華區，即台灣、中國、香港，所有這些都結合起來，除了 4 個地區或 3 個地區外，代表大中華區的亞洲子集將是至少有不是弱點。沒有很大的力氣。但它並不存在我們在歐洲和美洲看到的同樣的弱點。

Got it. As a follow-up, you mentioned in the prepared remarks about some borrowing that you were contemplating around the dividend. I wonder if you could give some of the details around that, some of the background of why you're choosing to do that? And maybe more broadly, given the downturn that's lasting longer than the most of us have thought, it's your general view towards the borrowing levels right now.

知道了。作為後續行動，您在準備好的評論中提到了您正在考慮圍繞股息的一些借款。我想知道您是否可以提供一些相關細節以及您選擇這樣做的一些背景？也許更廣泛地說，考慮到經濟低迷持續的時間比我們大多數人想像的要長，這是您目前對借貸水平的普遍看法。

Sure. So maybe I miscommunicated in my prepared remarks. So let me go through them again. In any given quarter, the adjusted free cash flow we generate will vary depending on various actions, particularly when we have concentrations of tax payments or interest payments which happened a little bit more lumpy.

當然。所以也許我在準備好的發言中傳達了錯誤。讓我再回顧一下它們。在任何給定的季度，我們產生的調整後的自由現金流都會根據各種行動而有所不同，特別是當我們集中納稅或利息支付時，這些情況會更加不穩定。

In that quarter, we may generate lower -- less adjusted free cash flow than the dividend that we pay. And all that I was trying to say is that in subsequent quarters, what we would do is take some of the adjusted free cash flow that was in excess of the dividend and compensate for that so that we didn't have a net borrowing between quarters where the adjusted free cash flow was less than the dividend payment. So it's really borrowing from within Microchip, not so much borrowing from the bank.

在該季度，我們產生的調整後自由現金流可能低於我們支付的股息。我想說的是，在接下來的幾個季度中，我們要做的就是採取一些超過股息的調整後自由現金流並進行補償，這樣我們就不會在季度之間產生淨借款調整後的自由現金流量小於股利支付。因此，這實際上是從 Microchip 內部借款，而不是向銀行借款。

We did in the last quarter, as Eric said in his prepared remarks, have to increase the debt in order to pay the dividend because our adjusted free cash flow was lower than what the dividend payment was. And there will be subsequent quarters as we go back into a recovery where we would generate more. And what we will do is just bring the debt level down so that the 100% capital return can still happen without raising the aggregate debt.

正如埃里克在他準備好的演講中所說，我們在上個季度所做的，必須增加債務才能支付股息，因為我們調整後的自由現金流低於股息支付。當我們恢復復甦時，接下來的幾季我們將產生更多的收入。我們要做的只是降低債務水平，以便在不增加總債務的情況下仍然可以實現 100% 的資本回報。

Do you want to add anything to that, Eric?

艾瑞克，你想補充什麼嗎？

Just maybe take a real simple example. So if, for example, the dividend in the current quarter is in excess of the prior quarter's free cash flow calculation by $100 million. And then we fast forward to the June quarter of next year.

也許舉一個真正簡單的例子。例如，如果當季的股利比上一季的自由現金流計算結果多出 1 億美元。然後我們快轉到明年六月季度。

And hypothetically, the adjusted free cash flow is $200 million higher than what the dividend would be. The forward we would start buying back stock, we would back out that $100 million that in Ganesh's terminology. We borrowed in the current quarter to pay the dividend. So over the course of time, it's 100% free cash flow return.

假設調整後的自由現金流比股利高 2 億美元。未來我們將開始回購股票，用 Ganesh 的術語來說，我們將回購 1 億美元。我們在本季借錢來支付股利。所以隨著時間的推移，它是 100% 的自由現金流回報。

Without a structural increase in debt levels?

債務水準沒有結構性增加？

Yes. That's exactly what we're targeting.

是的。這正是我們的目標。

And a commitment to our shareholders that the dividend is strong and continue to be there and that our cash generations continue to be strong over the long term.

並向我們的股東承諾，股息強勁且持續存在，並且我們的現金產生能力長期保持強勁。

Okay. Got it. That's clear. Thank you.

好的。知道了。很清楚。謝謝。

Blayne Curtis, Jefferies.

布萊恩·柯蒂斯，杰弗里斯。

Good afternoon. Thanks for your question. I had two. Just curious on the message on the guidance. So it sounded like last quarter, you were hopeful of some green shoots. You said they're uneven. So I'm just curious, are you seeing any area, either product-wise or geography that you're feeling better about?

午安.謝謝你的提問。我有兩個。只是對指南上的消息感到好奇。所以聽起來上個季度，你對出現一些新芽抱有希望。你說他們不平衡。所以我很好奇，您是否看到任何您感覺更好的領域，無論是產品方面還是地理方面？

And then, I guess, for the guidance, it sounds like you're just assuming less turns. Is that anything you're seeing? Or it's just as you explained seasonal and you're just being conservative on that.

然後，我想，對於指導，聽起來你只是假設更少的轉彎。這是你看到的嗎？或者就像你解釋的季節性一樣，你只是對此持保守態度。

So as I mentioned, the 2 places where we continue to see strength is in aerospace and defense, as well as the AI subset of data centers. So that has been continuing now for multiple quarters. I think in this quarter, beyond the normal macroeconomic forces and all that stuff also is we know that the quarter end in December, when there are more holidays and so less production days and people will take the opportunity to tamp down any production plans as well as to cut back on inventory because many of them have year-end for their balance sheet.

正如我所提到的，我們繼續看到優勢的兩個領域是航空航太和國防，以及資料中心的人工智慧子集。因此，這種情況已經持續了多個季度。我認為在本季度，除了正常的宏觀經濟力量之外，我們知道該季度將於 12 月結束，屆時假期較多，生產天數較少，人們也會藉此機會壓低任何生產計劃減少庫存，因為許多公司的資產負債表已到年底。

And they want to have a balance sheet without excess inventory sitting on it. And we've already heard from some customers who have production shutdowns that are in the latter part of the quarter.

他們希望資產負債表上沒有多餘的庫存。我們已經收到一些客戶的回饋，他們在本季後半段停產了。

So I think all of that plays into us trying to get a sense of where is this quarter going to go. And at this point in time, I think the guidance tries to reflect that combination of what are we able to do, what we will come and where are the places where there's going to be some challenges to work through.

因此，我認為所有這些都讓我們試圖了解本季的發展。目前，我認為該指南試圖反映我們能夠做什麼、我們將做什麼以及哪些地方將面臨一些挑戰的組合。

Right. And just to clarify, we didn't break out a turns percentage. We aren't necessarily expecting less turns, but our backlog has continued to fall as our book-to-bill has been less than one.

正確的。澄清一下，我們沒有公佈轉彎百分比。我們不一定期望週轉率會減少，但由於我們的訂單出貨比不到一，因此我們的積壓訂單持續下降。

Got you. And then maybe just on OpEx over the next couple of quarters here. I thought that you had to pay cuts that would come back in, I'm assuming a lower forecast though, maybe the variable comp is down from -- I think you're guiding it up $12 million sequentially for December. But how do you think about the next few quarters beyond that?

明白你了。然後也許只是在接下來的幾季的營運支出上。我認為你必須削減工資，這會回來，但我假設預測較低，也許可變補償會下降 - 我認為你將在 12 月連續指導它增加 1200 萬美元。但除此之外，您如何看待接下來的幾季？

Yes. So on a non-GAAP basis, it's a little bit more at the midpoint of guidance, a little bit more than $8 million up quarter-on-quarter, December to September. And then we are reinstating the salary cuts getting -- taking the majority of employees that are below a director level back to 100% salary this quarter, and that is factored into that $8 million increase.

是的。因此，在非 GAAP 基礎上，12 月至 9 月的季度環比增長略高於 800 萬美元，略高於指導值的中點。然後我們將恢復減薪——將本季度主管級別以下的大多數員工的工資恢復到 100%，這已計入 800 萬美元的增長中。

And so I would expect that OpEx because we'll have a full quarter of that effect in the March quarter will go up again in dollars, and we'll see where the revenue comes in terms of percentage of sales and all that. But those are things that we feel that we need to do.

因此，我預計營運支出會再次上升，因為我們將在三月的季度中受到整個季度的影響，以美元計算，我們將看到收入在銷售百分比等方面的表現。但這些是我們認為需要做的事情。

Our employees will have been on a pay cut for 9 months, and we want to make sure that we've got an engaged group that is being compensated for the work that they are performing.

我們的員工將被減薪 9 個月，我們希望確保我們有一個敬業的團隊，他們所做的工作可以得到補償。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Chris Rolland, Susquehanna International Group.

克里斯羅蘭，薩斯奎哈納國際集團。

Hi, guys. Thanks for the question. You had some comments about some data center products, which was nice to see PCIe switching some SSD, SXL, some other stuff as well. I guess a couple of questions here. Like is there a home run product amongst this group?

嗨，大家好。謝謝你的提問。您對一些資料中心產品有一些評論，很高興看到 PCIe 切換了一些 SSD、SXL 以及其他一些產品。我想這裡有幾個問題。例如這個群體中有一個全壘打產品嗎？

Is this outgrowing, I would assume the rest of your other end markets, the last update that you guys had, I think, data center was 18% of revenue, but it hasn't necessarily grown over time. Would you expect, given this product line up for data center to expand as a percentage of your total over time? Thanks.

我認為你們的其他終端市場的其他部分是否已經過時了，我認為你們最近一次的更新資料中心佔收入的 18%，但它不一定會隨著時間的推移而成長。隨著時間的推移，您是否期望資料中心產品系列在您的產品系列中所佔的比例不斷擴大？謝謝。

So in the long run, we are very confident about data center as an end market, as a megatrend and our participation in the opportunities within that. And it's pretty broad in terms of what all we bring in there. In the short run, the data center subset, which is driven by accelerated computing or the AI portion of the subset. And we had estimated that to be about 30%-ish of the overall data center revenue we have. That is, in fact, continuing to be strong and growing.

因此，從長遠來看，我們對資料中心作為終端市場、大趨勢以及我們參與其中的機會非常有信心。就我們所帶來的一切而言，它的範圍相當廣泛。從短期來看，資料中心子集是由加速運算或子集的人工智慧部分所驅動的。我們預計這大約占我們資料中心總收入的 30% 左右。事實上，這就是繼續強大和增長。

But as you know, overall, data center budgets are being squeezed on the non-AI portion of what they're spending. And eventually, it will come back because they do need to go back and put some of our infrastructure in place.

但如您所知，總體而言，資料中心預算正在被擠壓在其支出的非人工智慧部分上。最終，它會回來，因為他們確實需要回去並將我們的一些基礎設施建設到位。

But today, the data center overall growth is constrained because the non-AI portion does not have the same capital expenses that end customers are putting in place while they build out some of the AI infrastructure at the pace that it's going on. But long run, AI or the data center is a huge opportunity for us with multiple growth areas inside of it.

但如今，資料中心的整體成長受到限制，因為非人工智慧部分的資本支出與最終客戶在以當前速度建立一些人工智慧基礎設施時所投入的資本支出不同。但從長遠來看，人工智慧或資料中心對我們來說是一個巨大的機會，其中有多個成長領域。

They're very good. Perhaps, secondly, CapEx, it seems like you guys paused your second silicon. I was wondering longer term, how should we be thinking about CapEx? And you mentioned also an update on the CHIPS Act. Remind us what you're playing for there and the timing of payments.

他們非常好。其次，也許，資本支出，你們似乎暫停了第二塊晶片。我想知道從長遠來看，我們應該如何考慮資本支出？您也提到了《CHIPS 法案》的更新。提醒我們您在那裡玩什麼遊戲以及付款時間。

Okay. Well, I'll answer the CapEx question. So our CapEx for the current fiscal year, which will end in March is expected to be about $150 million. It was pretty front-end loaded where we had about $70 million in the June quarter and then it's going to be at this lower rate through the end of the fiscal year. We do expect fiscal '26 CapEx to be even lower than fiscal '25.

好的。好吧，我來回答資本支出問題。因此，我們本財年（將於 3 月結束）的資本支出預計約為 1.5 億美元。它的前端負載相當大，我們在 6 月季度有大約 7000 萬美元，然後到本財年末都會保持在這個較低的水平。我們確實預期 26 財年的資本支出將低於 25 財年。

And that's because we've made a lot of investments in capacity that we need to grow back into. During the up cycle, we were planning for growth and brought in a bunch of equipment that's been received now that is sitting in an undepreciated state that we can deploy. So we've got maintenance CapEx obviously, we'll be investing in growth areas of the business, but CapEx, I expect to be quite low again in fiscal '26 for CHIPS Act, I'll turn it back to Ganesh.

這是因為我們在產能方面進行了大量投資，我們需要恢復成長。在升級週期中，我們正在計劃成長，並引進了一堆現在已收到的設備，這些設備處於未折舊狀態，可供我們部署。因此，我們顯然有維護資本支出，我們將投資於業務的成長領域，但資本支出，我預計在26 財年的《CHIPS 法案》中，資本支出將再次相當低，我會將其轉回給Ganesh 。

So yes, we don't yet have an agreement on the CHIPS Act. We're working through it. We're optimistic about it. I think the CHIPS act has a piece of it, which is the investment tax credit that's been taking place over some time. But we would need to be deploying capital to be able to take advantage of that, and that will happen in time, but it's not something near term we need to go off and do.

所以，是的，我們尚未就 CHIPS 法案達成一致。我們正在解決這個問題。我們對此持樂觀態度。我認為 CHIPS 法案中有一部分內容，就是已經實施了一段時間的投資稅收抵免。但我們需要部署資本才能​​利用這一點，這會及時發生，但這不是我們短期內需要做的事情。

And then there are grants and those grants are the ones we're still negotiating. And those would be determined based on when would we bring on capabilities or capacity consistent with what those grants were delivered for. So I'm not looking for any short-term benefit that comes out of the CHIPS Act in the next one, two quarters or so. But over a three-, four-, five-year period of time, as demand returns as we continue to expand and deploy the capital we have and live up to the commitments that we're making into the CHIPS Act, they will all be beneficial to us.

然後還有贈款，這些贈款是我們仍在談判的。這些將根據我們何時提供與這些贈款的用途相符的能力來決定。因此，我不希望在接下來的一個、兩個季度左右的時間內從《CHIPS 法案》中獲得任何短期利益。但在三年、四年、五年的時間裡，隨著我們繼續擴大和部署我們擁有的資本並履行我們在《CHIPS 法案》中所做的承諾，需求將會回歸，它們都將是對我們有利。

Excellent. Thanks, Ganesh. Thanks, Eric.

出色的。謝謝，加內什。謝謝，埃里克。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

哈蘭‧蘇爾，摩根大通。

Yes, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Lots of questions on the near-term cyclical dynamics. Maybe just one for me on your products and technology. So you guys mentioned your customers are back to focusing on innovation, your TSS strategy continues to play out.

是的，下午好。感謝您提出我的問題。關於近期週期性動態的許多問題。也許只是給我介紹一下你們的產品和技術。你們提到你們的客戶重新開始專注於創新，你們的 TSS 策略繼續發揮作用。

The team has a very comprehensive system in place, right, to track the opportunity pipeline, also content growth for opportunity, I don't know, can you guys quantify how successful TSS has been? How has the Microchip dollar content per customer opportunity increased over the past several years. Any way to convey your success with TSS?

團隊有一個非常全面的系統，對吧，追蹤機會管道，以及機會的內容成長，我不知道，你們能量化 TSS 的成功程度嗎？在過去幾年中，Microchip 每個客戶機會的美元含量如何增加。有什麼方法可以傳達您在 TSS 方面的成功嗎？

It's more what we have because we have 120,000 customers, a substantial number of them through the distribution channel, it's hard to pick that data off on a very consistent basis. But we do have subsets of what we look at, subsets of some of the large customers, subsets of specific mega trends, subsets of things.

這更重要的是我們擁有的，因為我們有 12 萬名客戶，其中很大一部分是透過分銷管道獲得的，很難在非常一致的基礎上挑選出這些數據。但我們確實有我們所關注的子集、一些大客戶的子集、特定大趨勢的子集、事物的子集。

And so internally, we track as we look at these subsets, how is it performing? And really the same processes we know are creating that multiplier effect in other places as well. So I think that's the best way we don't break it down by each initiative or each megatrend in terms of what we're doing.

因此，在內部，我們在查看這些子集時進行跟踪，其表現如何？事實上，我們所知道的相同過程也在其他地方產生了乘數效應。所以我認為這是最好的方式，我們不會根據我們正在做的事情按每一項舉措或每一個大趨勢來分解它。

But we do know and we do see that the TSS reflected by the total content in these applications is growing in the areas that we're focused on. And we'll think about is there a way to provide some of that insight. Over the years, we had shown some of the customer designs without putting any names on them, showing all the different content. It doesn't go to your question of dollars, but it does go to your question of content and maybe we'll bring some of that back into the investor circuit. Do you have any other --

但我們確實知道並且確實看到這些應用程式的總內容所反映的 TSS 在我們關注的領域正在成長。我們會考慮是否有一種方法可以提供一些洞察力。多年來，我們展示了一些客戶的設計，但沒有標註任何名稱，展示了所有不同的內容。這與你的美元問題無關，但確實涉及你的內容問題，也許我們會將其中一些帶回投資者圈子。你還有其他的——

Yes, I might add maybe a good way for you to look at that, too, is on our website. We now have a very extensive reference design section that we're adding reference designs to every quarter, and you can probably see from that, what markets and about how many devices are in each of those reference designs for those target applications. And that gives you a good idea of where we're targeting and what's happening.

是的，我可能會補充一點，也許您也可以在我們的網站上查看這一點。我們現在有一個非常廣泛的參考設計部分，我們每個季度都會添加參考設計，您可能可以從中看到哪些市場以及針對這些目標應用的每個參考設計中有多少設備。這可以讓您很好地了解我們的目標和正在發生的事情。

Okay. Well, thank you. That's helpful. Thank you.

好的。嗯，謝謝。這很有幫助。謝謝。

Thanks, Harlan.

謝謝，哈倫。

Tore Svanberg, Stifel.

托雷‧思文凱 (Tore Svanberg)、史蒂菲爾 (Stifel)。

Yes. Thank you. Ganesh, I had a question on your turns business. I mean, I assume the percentage each quarter now is very, very high. You obviously have short lead times, you have inventory, but so do your peers. So I'm just curious what's your view on how long we're going to be in this period. And I'm not suggesting maybe revenue is going down every quarter, but could we be in a very high turns environment for a while, just given all the inventory that all, the broad-based made companies have at this point?

是的。謝謝。 Ganesh，我有一個關於你的回合業務的問題。我的意思是，我認為現在每個季度的百分比都非常非常高。顯然，您的交貨時間很短，您有庫存，但您的同行也是如此。所以我只是好奇你對這個時期會持續多久有什麼看法。我並不是說收入可能每季都會下降，但考慮到基礎廣泛的製造公司目前擁有的所有庫存，我們是否會在一段時間內處於非常高的周轉環境中？

Yes. It's hard to tell, right? So I mean let me reverse the thing, go back to the middle of 2023, we had 52-week lead times, and it looks like lead times would never come down. And pretty soon, it's rapidly on manner. And I think the reverse could happen here as well.

是的。很難說，對吧？所以我的意思是讓我扭轉局面，回到 2023 年中期，我們的交貨時間是 52 週，而且看起來交貨時間永遠不會縮短。很快，它就迅速開始了。我認為這裡也可能發生相反的情況。

What will determine this is when do customers either feel the need to place backlog because they feel there's risk if they don't place it, or have confidence in their business and say, hey, I want to get going with it.

決定這一點的是，客戶何時會覺得有必要積壓訂單，因為他們覺得如果不積壓就會有風險，或者對自己的業務有信心，並說，嘿，我想繼續下去。

Right now, our customers in the markets that we've described are uncertain about their business, are uncertain what is the rate at which they're inventory will drain. The new orders will come in at. And as long as they're uncertain and there are short lead times available, there's no need to place backlog. And if they don't play backlog, that means we have higher turns that go with it. It will turn around.

目前，我們所描述的市場中的客戶對他們的業務並不確定，也不確定他們的庫存耗盡的速度是多少。新訂單將於 到達。只要它們不確定且交貨時間很短，就沒有必要積壓。如果他們不玩積壓訂單，那就意味著我們有更高的回合數。它會扭轉。

And it will turn around when they get to the point where they either get concerned, they may not get product because they need to place a backlog or they get confidence in their own business to having turned around.

當他們擔心，他們可能無法獲得產品，因為他們需要積壓，或者他們對自己的業務有信心扭轉局面時，情況就會扭轉。

Some of the things -- the external conditions have started to -- with interest rates starting to come down, that is a good stimulus in the right direction. It's happening here. It's happening in Europe. I think we got to get some of the uncertainty with the elections and some of that stuff out of the way. But as all that works out, and every quarter, inventory is draining, right, which means that their margin of error, if they don't place orders is increasing.

一些事情——外部條件已經開始——隨著利率開始下降，這是朝著正確方向的良好刺激。它就發生在這裡。這正在歐洲發生。我認為我們必須消除選舉中的一些不確定性以及其他一些因素。但隨著一切順利進行，每個季度，庫存都在耗盡，對吧，這意味著如果他們不下訂單，他們的誤差幅度就會增加。

And I think all of that will come back. But how it comes back and how fast it comes back is not very predictable, but we have seen it. And we have seen it come back pretty quickly when we thought it's going to be here taking a long, long time before it recovers.

我認為所有這些都會回來。但它如何回歸以及回歸的速度有多快還不太可預測，但我們已經看到了。當我們認為它需要很長時間才能恢復時，我們發現它很快就回來了。

Well, that's great color. As my follow-up for Eric. Eric, on CapEx, obviously, it's going to be lower next fiscal year. But from a capacity perspective that Microchip has, and I do recognize that you obviously outsource to, right? But I mean, is it fair to say that the company can double its quarterly revenue with basically just maintenance had CapEx at this point?

嗯，這顏色真棒。作為我對埃里克的後續行動。艾瑞克，在資本支出方面，顯然，下一財年的資本支出將會降低。但從 Microchip 的產能角度來看，我確實認識到你們顯然是外包的，對嗎？但我的意思是，可以公平地說，該公司目前只需維護資本支出即可將季度收入翻倍嗎？

Yes. I mean, in theory, if the mix stayed what it was today, we could do that, what the mix is going to be out at where we get there, it's hard to tell, right? And we'll have new products that accelerate their pace into the marketplace, and we'll need to make investments to support that. So it's not a completely straightforward answer. It will be somewhat mix dependent, but we've got a lot of capacity to grow back into.

是的。我的意思是，從理論上講，如果混音保持今天的樣子，我們就可以做到這一點，但到了那裡，混音會是什麼樣子，很難說，對吧？我們將推出新產品，加快它們進入市場的步伐，我們需要進行投資來支持這一點。所以這不是一個完全簡單的答案。這在某種程度上取決於混合，但我們有很大的能力可以恢復成長。

Well, again, thank you.

嗯，再次謝謝你。

William Stein, Truist Securities.

威廉斯坦，Truist 證券公司。

Great. Thank you for taking my question. I'd like to ask about the green shoots as you characterize them and the uneven way that they're playing out. This sounds to me as an outsider looking into the company that this is essentially just expedites, which are easy to confuse as like upside or urgent demands when in reality, the customers are just depending on you to have shorter lead times.

偉大的。謝謝你回答我的問題。我想問一下您對新芽的描述以及它們表現出不平衡的方式。在我看來，作為一個了解公司的局外人，這本質上只是加急，這很容易與上行或緊急需求混淆，而實際上，客戶只是依靠你來縮短交貨時間。

How do you distinguish between those two demand triggers? And where do you think the mix -- like are there -- are there a lot of customers that are viewing demand in the way that they really need upside? Do they need it faster than before the real pull-ins? Or should I think of this mostly as just responding to your very short lead times?

您如何區分這兩種需求觸發因素？您認為這種組合在哪裡——例如那裡——是否有很多客戶以他們真正需要上漲的方式看待需求？他們是否比真正的拉入之前更快地需要它？或者我應該認為這主要是對你們非常短的交貨時間的回應？

I'm sure our customers are taking advantage of the fact that there are short lead times. But we know that we have customers who didn't have the place and didn't place orders for two or three quarters, and they have started to place orders.

我確信我們的客戶正在利用交貨時間短的優勢。但我們知道，我們有客戶沒有地方，兩三個季度沒有下訂單，但他們已經開始下訂單了。

And in some cases, they had previously placed orders for further out in time, but now recognize that they have used up what they had placed and need to pull in. So those are the effects that we see. And the fact that we have short lead times is just our ability to then respond to what they are seeing as the demand signals.

在某些情況下，他們之前曾及時下達了更遠的訂單，但現在意識到他們已經用完了所下的訂單，需要拉貨。事實上，我們的交貨時間很短，這正是我們對他們所看到的需求訊號做出反應的能力。

They don't have very much visibility in their demand signals. But as they sell through, they recognize they need to build more, they need to build more, they're starting to place orders on us, to place orders on us with short lead times are pulling in orders previously placed on it. Though the green shoots that we think reflect consumption and the need to place orders on it that are starting to get closer to where their consumption is at.

他們的需求訊號沒有太多可見性。但隨著他們的銷售，他們認識到他們需要建造更多，他們需要建造更多，他們開始向我們下訂單，以較短的交貨時間向我們下訂單正在拉動之前下的訂單。儘管我們認為的萌芽反映了消費和下訂單的需求，但它們開始接近消費水準。

I have one follow-up if I can. I appreciate that answer, Ganesh. I think at the last Analyst Day, the company highlighted a 6% to 8% long-term growth, but then there was a there was a conference call or an investor conference, perhaps where the company cited a 10% to 15% long-term sales growth view. I'm not expecting you to update this or to tune that outlook up.

如果可以的話，我有一個後續行動。我很欣賞這個答案，Ganesh。我認為在上一個分析師日，該公司強調了 6% 至 8% 的長期增長，但隨後舉行了電話會議或投資者會議，也許該公司引用了 10% 至 15% 的長期增長 -術語銷售增長觀點。我並不期待您更新此內容或調整前景。

But I think there's a more basic question investors have, which is what's the -- what's the actual rate of end demand, even if it weren't really growing much, we're undershipping today. Clearly, you are over shipping at the peak. Do you have any -- even if it's a qualitative way to get at what you think normal normalized demand is on a, let's call it, a sellout basis or an end demand basis?

但我認為投資者有一個更基本的問題，那就是最終需求的實際速度是多少，即使它沒有真正增長太多，但我們今天的出貨量不足。顯然，您在高峰時期的運輸量已經超過了。您是否有任何方法 - 即使這是一種定性方法來了解您認為正常的正常化需求是基於（我們稱之為售罄基礎或最終需求基礎）？

The noise on that signal is so high. It's hard to give you a useful number at this point in time. We were for two years in a row, growing at 25% annually. And we didn't take our growth rates up as that happened because we knew that these things run in cycles. Today, we're in a deep down cycle, and we're not trying to reflect that this is how it's going to be.

此訊號的雜訊非常高。目前很難給你一個有用的數字。我們連續兩年保持每年 25% 的成長率。我們並沒有在發生這種情況時提高成長率，因為我們知道這些事情是循環運作的。今天，我們正處於一個深層的循環中，我們並沒有試圖反思事情將會如何。

So I don't have a good answer. I think we've gone through the most unusual cycle here in the last three years-plus. We're all trying to get our bearings on, okay, what part of that cycle was secular growth versus what were things that were maybe pull ahead because of COVID or because of other issues, et cetera.

所以我沒有一個好的答案。我認為我們經歷了過去三年多來最不尋常的周期。我們都在努力弄清楚，這個週期的哪些部分是長期成長，哪些部分可能因為新冠疫情或其他問題等而提早。

And I don't think anybody knows precisely where that is. So I don't want to give you an answer today reflecting where today's end of the cycle is just so they didn't want to give an answer that was optimistic when the upper end of the cycle was there.

我認為沒有人確切知道那是哪裡。所以我今天不想給你們一個反映今天週期結束的答案，所以他們不想給一個當週期上限時樂觀的答案。

And we really feel that our focus on these areas that we call the megatrends where our products play that we think are the faster area, growing areas of the market that we can participate in as well as TSS is going to allow us to consistently gain market share over time.

我們確實認為，我們對這些我們稱之為大趨勢的領域（我們的產品所發揮的作用）的關注，我們認為是我們可以參與的更快的領域、不斷增長的市場領域以及TSS 將使我們能夠持續贏得市場隨著時間的推移分享。

Well, I think the way if I can look at it, I look and say, okay, there's a lot of noise in the short term, et cetera. But how is innovation in what you and I and others and everybody else counts on and uses in what we do and how we run things, et cetera, being delivered.

好吧，我想如果我能看一下的話，我會說，好吧，短期內有很多噪音，等等。但是，你、我、其他人和其他人在我們所做的事情以及我們如何運作事物等方面所依賴和使用的創新是如何實現的。

And that innovation has a substantial semiconductor content on which is being delivered. And if you believe that semiconductor content is essential for how growth and innovation is being delivered by the customer base for all of us as consumers to be able to take advantage, right?

該創新具有大量的半導體內容可供交付。如果您認為半導體內容對於客戶群如何實現成長和創新至關重要，讓我們作為消費者能夠利用這一優勢，對嗎？

There's a lot of optimism around where this thing goes in the long term. But the noise in the short term is just too high to be able to discern where that is in the long term.

從長遠來看，人們對這件事的發展持樂觀態度。但短期內的噪音太大，無法辨別長期的狀況。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Chris Danely, Citi.

克里斯丹利，花旗銀行。

Hey, thanks, guys. So clearly, this downturn has gone on longer and deeper and farther than any of us expected. If we're still in this muck, let's call it another couple of quarters or whatever, is there any risk of an inventory write-down or restructuring? Or would you guys have to cut the dividend?

嘿，謝謝，夥計們。很明顯，這次衰退持續的時間比我們任何人預期的都要長、更深、更遠。如果我們仍然陷入困境，我們稱之為再過幾個季度或其他什麼，是否存在庫存減記或重組的風險？或者你們必須削減股息嗎？

So and yes, I think the answer to that on a cut in the dividend or a significant inventory write-down. Those aren't things that we lose sleep over. Our products have really long lives. We know this is going to come back. Timing of that and the size of the bounce back, it's hard to predict.

所以，是的，我認為答案是削減股息或大幅減記庫存。這些不是讓我們失眠的事情。我們的產品使用壽命非常長。我們知道這會回來。反彈的時間和幅度很難預測。

But that's not anything that we're worried about. The cash generation from this business is there and the dividend is there to stay. I don't know if I've addressed all pieces of your question. Was there anything else?

但這不是我們擔心的事。這項業務產生的現金就在那裡，股息就在那裡。我不知道我是否已經回答了你的所有問題。還有別的事嗎？

That's fine. And then the last one is a little provocative. So some of your or most of your peers have already reported, and I'm sure you see that your sales are down substantially more than any of the competitors. Why is there not anything wrong with Microchip? Or what do you attribute your deeper sales decline versus all the competitors, too?

沒關係。最後一個有點挑釁。因此，您的一些或大多數同行已經報告了，我相信您會發現您的銷售額下降幅度比任何競爭對手都要大。為什麼Microchip沒有任何問題？或者您認為與所有競爭對手相比，您的銷售額下降幅度更大是什麼原因？

So I talked about it a quarter ago. I think if you aggregate over time, we had a steeper increase too, if you go back and look at '22 and '23. And so did some of our shipments take place ahead of what others were at. We all have had different ways in which we have navigated through the cycle. Clearly, for many of our customers in the industrial marketplace and some of the automotive marketplace.

所以我四分之一前就談到這個問題。我認為，如果你隨著時間的推移進行匯總，如果你回頭看看'22和'23，我們也會有更陡峭的增長。因此，我們的部分發貨時間比其他發貨時間早。我們都以不同的方式度過了這個週期。顯然，對於我們工業市場和一些汽車市場的許多客戶來說。

They also had policies about carrying far more inventory. They were building quite valuable end products. And so some of those customers have had a higher inventory that they're starting from which they're burning down.

他們還制定了關於持有更多庫存的政策。他們正在製造非常有價值的最終產品。因此，其中一些客戶的庫存量高於他們開始消耗的庫存量。

But when I look at the aggregate of how much revenue on an index basis has everybody been able to generate going back to the December quarter before COVID to December 2019, I think you'll find that the total area end of the curve is very similar. That said, we're down significantly. And therefore, we expect that the opportunity to grow significantly is also an important part of what is ahead of us in Microchip.

但是，當我查看從 COVID 之前的 12 月季度到 2019 年 12 月的指數基礎上每個人都能產生多少收入時，我認為您會發現曲線末端的總面積非常相似。也就是說，我們的業績大幅下滑。因此，我們預期顯著成長的機會也是 Microchip 未來發展的重要組成部分。

Yes. And I think with that growth should come nice acceleration return to a more normalized level in our operating profit, which is obviously down significantly at this point in time. So I think that's an opportunity.

是的。我認為，隨著這種成長，我們的營業利潤應該會加速恢復到更正常的水平，而目前營業利潤顯然已大幅下降。所以我認為這是一個機會。

That's fair. Thanks, guys.

這很公平。謝謝，夥計們。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

Joshua Buchalter, TD Cowen.

約書亞‧布查爾特 (Joshua Buchalter)，TD 考恩 (TD Cowen)。

Thanks for taking my question. As we bridge to the December quarter gross margin, any help you can give us on expectations for directionally? I know you usually don't comment on utilization rates, but directionally, how you would expect underutilization charges to trend in the quarter? And maybe a similar question regarding expectations for potential inventory write-downs, I know that's been moving a little bit the last few quarters. Thank you.

感謝您提出我的問題。當我們接近 12 月季度的毛利率時，您可以為我們提供有關方向性預期的任何幫助嗎？我知道您通常不會評論利用率，但從方向上看，您預計本季未充分利用費用的趨勢如何？也許還有一個關於潛在庫存減記預期的類似問題，我知道過去幾季有所變化。謝謝。

Yes. I think it's going to be more of the same of what we've seen in the last couple of quarters that we're going to continue to run the freeze at much less than optimal utilization. So those underutilization charges are going to be with us. And so we'll have the manufacturing teams executing on that, and inventory reserves are going to be a result of where inventory ends up and where our sales for the quarter and over the last couple of periods are going to be. So inventory reserves are going to be high again.

是的。我認為這將與我們在過去幾季所看到的情況更加相似，我們將繼續以遠低於最佳利用率的速度運行凍結。因此，那些未充分利用的費用將由我們承擔。因此，我們將讓製造團隊執行此操作，庫存儲備將取決於庫存最終的位置以及我們本季和過去幾個時期的銷售額。因此，庫存儲備將再次處於高位。

And the good thing is, we don't believe we're building inventory that isn't going to sell, right? Long life products are really going to help us in the future. And even though we'll have a write-down currently, the chances of that inventory selling through at some point in the future are quite high.

好處是，我們不相信我們正在建立賣不出去的庫存，對吧？長壽命產品在未來確實對我們有幫助。即使我們目前會進行減記，但在未來某個時候售出庫存的可能性相當高。

Okay. Thank you. And then maybe a bigger picture question. I mean the [distis] obviously issue right now and where you still have work to do on the inventory side. I mean, through this cycle, a lot of your peers have deemphasize the channel and distribution partners.

好的。謝謝。然後也許是一個更大的問題。我的意思是，現在顯然存在問題，而且您在庫存方面仍然有工作要做。我的意思是，在這個週期中，許多同業已經不再重視通路和分銷合作夥伴。

I'm just wondering, I guess, coming out of this cycle, are you thinking about your relationship and the importance of the channel and how you expect it to treat it, I guess, long term strategically as you prioritize your inventory. I'd be curious your thoughts coming out of the cycle. Thank you.

我只是想知道，我想，從這個週期中走出來，你是否會考慮你們的關係和管道的重要性，以及當你優先考慮庫存時，你希望它如何長期戰略性地對待它。我很好奇你對循環的想法。謝謝。

We have, I think, somewhere in the order of about 100 channel partners across the world. They're an important part of our sales process. They reach a large number of customers that we would not be individually able to go. We have different models by which we work with them based on what work that they're able to do and the results that they're able to provide. And we believe that channel partners remain an important part of our strategy.

我認為，我們在全球擁有約 100 個通路合作夥伴。它們是我們銷售流程的重要組成部分。他們接觸到了大量我們無法單獨接觸的客戶。我們根據他們能夠完成的工作以及他們能夠提供的結果，採用不同的模型與他們合作。我們相信通路夥伴仍然是我們策略的重要組成部分。

They've been hanging right about at the 50% less or minus 5%, 10% for a long time to come. But we do evolve how we work with them and how do we work to incentivize and also compensate for performance with them.

在未來很長一段時間內，它們一直徘徊在 50% 或負 5%、10% 左右。但我們確實改進了與他們合作的方式，以及如何激勵和補償他們的績效。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Harsh Kumar, Piper Sandler.

嚴厲的庫馬爾，派珀桑德勒。

Yes. Hey. Can I have a question on pricing in the cycle? This is a period of high capacity, low product uptake. I was curious as you're negotiating prices with your customers, for your next contract for the next 12 months, are you starting to see any pressure at this point in time? Or is pricing still pretty firm?

是的。嘿。我可以對週期內的定價有疑問嗎？這是一個產能高、產品利用率低的時期。我很好奇，當您與客戶就未來 12 個月的下一份合約談判價格時，您此時是否開始感受到壓力？還是定價仍然相當堅挺？

There's always pressure, right? Any purchasing manager work they're sold would be pushing for that. The question is, what is a reasonable deal that allows a win-win outcome that come -- and what is the true risk of losing something on price.

壓力總是有的，對吧？他們出售的任何採購經理工作都會推動這一點。問題是，什麼是合理的交易，可以帶來雙贏的結果，以及因價格損失的真正風險是什麼。

And the vast majority of our products are designed in, have long design-in cycles, long production cycles that go with them. But we're business people, and we work to make sure that if we can make the pie bigger and generate a significant amount of overall business that for both of the customer and for us, is a good win-win relationship. We'll go with it.

我們的絕大多數產品都是經過設計的，具有較長的設計週期和隨之而來的較長的生產週期。但我們是商人，我們努力確保如果我們能夠把蛋糕做大並產生大量的整體業務，那麼對於客戶和我們來說，都是一種良好的雙贏關係。我們就這樣吧。

But I would say in the aggregate, that isn't what is moving gross margins for us. It's really, at this point in time, some of the underutilization and other issues that are pricing on a long-term basis is a lot more stable, a lot more disciplined.

但我想說，總的來說，這並不是影響我們毛利率的因素。事實上，在這個時間點上，一些長期定價的未充分利用和其他問題更加穩定，更加有紀律。

Got it. And for my last question, Ganesh, you talked about green shoots. This is the second quarter, I think you're seeing those signs of cancellation. And this is probably very typical of being at the bottom. But I was curious if you could give us some color on these green shoots.

知道了。對於我的最後一個問題，Ganesh，您談到了新芽。這是第二季度，我想你已經看到了取消的跡象。這可能是處於底層的典型現象。但我很好奇你是否能給我們一些關於這些綠芽的顏色。

Are these green shoots getting stronger for you? Are they just about the same? I mean I'm nitpicking here, but I want to see if there's something to be taken away from the demand signals that you are seeing.

這些綠芽對你來說變得更強壯了嗎？它們差不多嗎？我的意思是我在這裡吹毛求疵，但我想看看你所看到的需求訊號是否有一些東西可以被剔除。

It's hard to tell. I would say the greens shoots were a lot greener 2 quarters ago. And at this point in time, they're still green, but maybe not quite as great. I think there's a malaise in terms of where the market is at. We're seeing the expedites, the pull-ins continuing to rise.

很難說。我想說的是，兩個季度前的果嶺芽要綠得多。此時，它們仍然是綠色的，但可能沒有那麼好。我認為市場狀況有問題。我們看到速度加快，拉動量持續上升。

So that's goodness. We are seeing the cancellations and all of that has bottomed out. That's good news.

所以這就是好事。我們看到取消的情況，所有這些都已經觸底。這是個好消息。

What we haven't seen quite yet is sufficient confidence in customers to give us more bookings and backlog because they don't have quite that same confidence. So I think that's the missing piece that we want to see come through.

我們還沒有看到客戶有足夠的信心為我們提供更多的預訂和積壓，因為他們沒有同樣的信心。所以我認為這就是我們希望看到的缺失部分。

Thanks, Ganesh.

謝謝，加內什。

Thanks, Harsh.

謝謝，嚴酷。

Janet Ramkissoon, Quadra Capital.

Janet Ramkissoon，Quadra Capital。

Well. Yes, just a follow-up on the CHIPS act question that was asked before. I just want to make sure that I understand this correctly. You were awarded what talk -- of an award in brackets for $162 million and $90 million was for the expansion of Colorado Springs facility and only [$72 million] was for Fab expense in [Ariba].

出色地。是的，這只是先前提出的 CHIPS 法案問題的後續。我只是想確保我正確理解這一點。你被授予了什麼談話——括號內的獎金為 1.62 億美元，其中 9000 萬美元用於科羅拉多斯普林斯工廠的擴建，只有 [7200 萬美元] 用於 [Ariba] 的 Fab 費用。

And from January to today, one would think that something would have happened -- is it the situation where the commerce department just made these awards and it's a situation where it's very difficult for you to meet your requirements to actually get these brands. Is there any color that you could provide that could help us understand why this was awarded and nothing has happened?

從一月到今天，人們會認為會發生一些事情——是不是商務部門剛剛頒發這些獎項的情況，你很難滿足你的要求，真正獲得這些品牌。您可以提供任何顏色來幫助我們理解為什麼這個獎項被授予但什麼都沒有發生嗎？

So to kick it off, and then I'll hand it to Rich. So what you're referring to in January as what's called a preliminary memorandum of term. So it's really an LOI, so to speak. If needed work to be done. They need to due diligence and then there was an agreement and to work.

首先，我會將其交給 Rich。所以你在一月所說的所謂的初步術語備忘錄。所以可以這麼說，這確實是個意向書。如果需要完成工作。他們需要盡職調查，然後達成協議並進行工作。

We have worked through a fair amount. And the commerce department, this is new for the chip's office in terms of what needed to happen. So there was a lot of learning for us and for them in terms of where it's at -- we've run into things that were not necessarily the right answer for Microchip that we have to educate them on.

我們已經做了相當多的工作。對於商務部來說，這對晶片辦公室來說是新的事情。因此，我們和他們都學到了很多東西——我們遇到了一些對 Microchip 來說不一定是正確答案的事情，我們必須向他們進行教育。

But we have worked through a lot of that at this point in time. And maybe I'll let Rich do it because he's been spearheading that for Microchip in terms of where we are and why we feel at this point that there is a reasonable chance that we might get the final agreement done this year.

但目前我們已經解決了許多問題。也許我會讓 Rich 來做這件事，因為他一直是 Microchip 的領導者，了解我們所處的位置以及為什麼我們目前認為我們有合理的機會在今年達成最終協議。

You know what, this is probably the first true public-private partnership with government in terms of investment in the US. And as Ganesh said, there was quite a bit of learning on both sides in terms of what it took to invest and grow this industry. This semiconductor device is probably the most complex industrial product that we make with some of the longest cycle times and the most capital-intensive industry that there is out there today.

你知道嗎，這可能是美國第一個與政府在投資上真正的公私部門合作。正如加內什所說，雙方在投資和發展這個行業所需的知識方面都學到了很多東西。這種半導體裝置可能是我們製造的最複雜的工業產品，具有最長的週期時間和當今資本最密集的產業。

And so there was a great deal of education back and forth. In most cases, federal government is dealing with much simpler products that they had to deal with, and not something as complex or high tech as making a semiconductor chip and not familiar with just how intertwined the world's supply chain and support chain is to make a semiconductor chip. It's not contained in one geography or one area to make a chip or install equipment in a factory, we need support from all over the world to make that happen.

因此，有大量的來回教育。在大多數情況下，聯邦政府正在處理他們必須處理的更簡單的產品，而不是像製造半導體晶片那樣複雜或高科技的產品，並且不熟悉世界供應鏈和支援鍊是如何相互交織的，以製造半導體晶片。製造晶片或在工廠安裝設備並不包含在一個地理​​位置或一個地區，我們需要來自世界各地的支援才能實現這一目標。

And so Ganesh said, it took a while to get through and educate each other on what was needed. There was quite a bit of constituents within Washington that weighed in on the CHIPS Act and we had to go through and work with those various constituents to make sure that we met their needs as well as the business needs as well as the structural needs of the CHIPS Act in terms of what it was intended for.

加內什說，我們需要一段時間才能溝通並互相了解需要什麼。華盛頓有相當多的選民對 CHIPS 法案發表了意見，我們必須與這些不同的選民進行討論並合作，以確保我們滿足他們的需求以及業務需求以及結構性需求。

So did you -- you do have some equipment that you haven't deployed yet. At any time, did you feel that you were just trying to get one step ahead in terms of buying equipment to meet the obligations that you would have if you've got that $162 million with the breakdown to Colorado Springs and Oregon.

你也是——你確實有一些尚未部署的設備。在任何時候，您是否覺得自己只是想在購買設備方面領先一步，以履行如果您有 1.62 億美元（包括科羅拉多斯普林斯和俄勒岡州的細項）所需承擔的義務。

It does require a little bit of lead time to be able to deliver on whatever you're promising wherever the commerce department thinks that be getting. So do you feel like you try to order equipment a little earlier because you think you felt like you were going to get this money? Thank you all joining us this morning.

它確實需要一點準備時間才能兌現您承諾的任何內容，無論商務部門認為會實現什麼。那麼，您是否覺得自己會嘗試提早訂購設備，因為您覺得自己會得到這筆錢？感謝大家今天早上加入我們。

No. So we run the business the way we needed to run the business. We weren't running the business to be able to payment with something that the CHIPS Act would end up having to go do. It was all running in parallel. Obviously, the markets have changed and this have changed.

不會。我們經營業務並不是為了能夠支付《CHIPS 法案》最終不得不做的事情。一切都是並行運作的。顯然，市場已經發生了變化，情況也發生了變化。

But all of what we did largely is driven by what do we need to do to run the business.

但我們所做的一切很大程度上都是由我們需要做什麼來經營業務所驅動的。

Thanks very much for the color. I appreciate it.

非常感謝你的顏色。我很感激。

All right. Thanks, Janet.

好的。謝謝，珍妮特。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back to Mr. Moorthy for any closing comments.

問答環節到此結束。我想請穆蒂先生發表最後評論。

Great. Well, thank you, everyone, for your patience in sitting through the meeting, and we appreciate the questions, and we look forward to meeting many of you on the road in the coming weeks. Thank you.

偉大的。好的，謝謝大家耐心地參加會議，我們感謝你們提出的問題，我們期待在未來幾週內與你們中的許多人見面。謝謝。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you again for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。再次感謝您的參與。