微晶片科技 (MCHP) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Microchip Technology Q2 Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Results Conference Call.

您好，歡迎參加 Microchip Technology 2024 年第二季財務業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Eric Bjornholt, Chief Financial Officer.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我想將會議交給主持人、財務長 Eric Bjornholt。

Good afternoon, everybody. During the course of this conference call, we will be making projections and other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company. We wish to caution you that such statements are predictions and that actual events or results may differ materially. We refer you to our press release as of today as well as our recent filings with the SEC that identify important risk factors that may impact Microchip's business and results of operations. In attendance with me today are Ganesh Moorthy, Microchip's President and CEO and Steve Sanghi, Microchip's Executive Chair; and Sajid Daudi, Microchip's Head of Investor Relations. I will comment on our second quarter fiscal year 2024 financial performance. Ganesh will then provide commentary on our results and discuss the current business environment as well as our guidance. And Steve will provide an update on our cash return strategy. We will then be available to respond to specific investor and analyst questions.

大家下午好。在本次電話會議期間，我們將對未來事件或公司未來財務表現做出預測和其他前瞻性陳述。我們希望提醒您，此類陳述僅為預測，實際事件或結果可能會有重大差異。我們建議您參閱今天的新聞稿以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件，其中確定了可能影響 Microchip 業務和營運績效的重要風險因素。今天與我一起出席的有 Microchip 總裁兼執行長 Ganesh Moorthy 和 Microchip 執行主席 Steve Sanghi；以及 Microchip 投資者關係主管 Sajid Daudi。我將評論我們 2024 財年第二季的財務表現。然後 Ganesh 將對我們的結果發表評論，並討論當前的商業環境以及我們的指導。史蒂夫將提供我們現金返還策略的最新資訊。然後我們將可以回答具體的投資者和分析師的問題。

We are including information in our press release and this conference call on various GAAP and non-GAAP measures. We have posted a full GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation on the Investor Relations page of our website at www.microchip.com, and included reconciliation information in our earnings press release, which we believe you will find useful when comparing GAAP and non-GAAP results. We have also posted a summary of our outstanding debt and our leverage metrics on our website. I will now go through some of the operating results, including net sales, gross margin and operating expenses. Other than net sales, I will be referring to these results on a non-GAAP basis, which is based on expenses prior to the effects of our acquisition activities, share-based compensation and certain other adjustments as described in our earnings press release and the reconciliations on our website.

我們在新聞稿和本次電話會議中納入了有關各種公認會計原則和非公認會計原則措施的資訊。我們已在我們網站www.microchip.com 的投資者關係頁面上發布了完整的GAAP 與非GAAP 調節表，並在我們的收益新聞稿中包含了調節信息，我們相信您在比較GAAP 和非GAAP 時會發現這些資訊很有用結果。我們也在我們的網站上發布了未償債務和槓桿指標的摘要。我現在將介紹一些經營業績，包括淨銷售額、毛利率和經營費用。除了淨銷售額之外，我將在非公認會計原則的基礎上提及這些結果，這是基於我們的收購活動、基於股份的薪酬和我們的收益新聞稿中所述的某些其他調整之前的費用和我們網站上的對帳。

Net sales in the September quarter were $2.254 billion, which were down 1.5% sequentially. We have posted a summary of our net sales by product line and geography on our website for your reference. On a non-GAAP basis, gross margins were 68.1%, operating expenses were at 20% and operating income was a record 48.1%. Non-GAAP net income was $889.3 million and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share was $1.62. On a GAAP basis in the September quarter, gross margins were 67.8%, total operating expenses were $642.4 million, and included acquisition intangible amortization of $151.4 million, special charges of $1.8 million, share-based compensation of $38 million and $1.1 million of other expensesGAAP net income was a record $666.6 million, resulting in a record $1.21 in earnings per diluted share. Our non-GAAP cash tax rate was 14.2% in the September quarter. Our non-GAAP tax rate for fiscal year 2024 is expected to be about 14.2%, which is exclusive of the transition tax and any tax audit settlements related to taxes accrued in prior fiscal years.

9 月季度的淨銷售額為 22.54 億美元，季減 1.5%。我們已在網站上發布了按產品線和地理位置劃分的淨銷售額摘要，供您參考。以非公認會計準則計算，毛利率為 68.1%，營運費用為 20%，營運收入為創紀錄的 48.1%。非 GAAP 淨利潤為 8.893 億美元，非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益為 1.62 美元。以GAAP 計算，九月季度的毛利率為67.8%，總營運費用為6.424 億美元，其中包括收購無形攤銷1.514 億美元、特別費用180 萬美元、股權激勵3800 萬美元和110 萬美元其他費用（ GAAP）淨利達到創紀錄的 6.666 億美元，攤薄後每股收益創紀錄的 1.21 美元。 9 月季度的非 GAAP 現金稅率為 14.2%。我們 2024 財年的非公認會計原則稅率預計約為 14.2%，這不包括過渡稅和與上一財年應計稅款相關的任何稅務審計和解。

Our fiscal '24 cash tax rate is expected to be higher than our fiscal '23 tax rate for a variety of factors, including lower availability of tax attributes, such as net operating losses and tax credits, lower depreciation with our expectation for lower capital expenditures in the U.S. in fiscal '24, as well as the impact of current tax rules requiring the capitalization of R&D expenses for tax purposes. We are still hopeful that the tax rules requiring companies to capitalize R&D expenses will be pushed out or repeal. If this were to happen, we would anticipate about a 200 basis point favorable adjustment to Microchip's non-GAAP tax rate in future periods. Our inventory balance at September 30, 2023, was $1.331 billion. We had 167 days of inventory at the end of the September quarter, which was flat to the prior quarter's level. Although we reduced inventory dollars in the quarter, we were not able to make as much progress as we would have liked, as we continue to accommodate requests by customers to push out delivery schedules for products that were very far through the manufacturing process.

由於多種因素，我們的 24 財年現金稅率預計將高於 23 財年稅率，包括稅收屬性的可用性較低，例如淨營運虧損和稅收抵免、折舊較低以及我們對資本支出較低的預期24 財年美國的情況，以及現行稅收規則要求將研發費用資本化以用於稅收目的的影響。我們仍希望要求公司將研發費用資本化的稅收規則將被推遲或廢除。如果這種情況發生，我們預計未來各期間 Microchip 的非 GAAP 稅率將有約 200 個基點的有利調整。截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日，我們的庫存餘額為 13.31 億美元。截至 9 月季度末，我們的庫存天數為 167 天，與上一季的水平持平。儘管我們在本季度減少了庫存，但我們未能取得我們希望的那麼多進展，因為我們繼續滿足客戶的要求，並推遲已完成製造過程的產品的交貨時間表。

We also continue to invest in building inventory for long-lived, high-margin products whose manufacturing capacity is being end of life by our supply chain partners, and these last-time buys represented 10 days of inventory at the end of September. We expect dollars of inventory on our balance sheet to reduce in the December quarter. Inventory at our distributors in the September quarter was at 35 days, which was up 6 days from the prior quarter's level. Our cash flow from operating activities was $616.2 million in the September quarter. Included in our cash flow from operating activities was $87.5 million of long-term supply assurance receipts from customers. We have adjusted these items out of our free cash flow to determine the adjusted free cash flow that we will return to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, as these supply assurance payments will be refundable over time as purchase commitments are fulfilled.

我們也繼續投資建造長壽命、高利潤產品的庫存，這些產品的製造能力已被我們的供應鏈合作夥伴淘汰，這些最後一次購買的庫存相當於 9 月底 10 天的庫存。我們預計資產負債表上的美元庫存將在 12 月季度減少。 9 月季度我們經銷商的庫存為 35 天，比上一季的水準增加了 6 天。 9 月季度我們的經營活動現金流量為 6.162 億美元。我們的經營活動現金流量包括客戶的 8,750 萬美元長期供應保證收入。我們已經從自由現金流中調整了這些項目，以確定調整後的自由現金流，我們將透過股息和股票回購將其返還給股東，因為隨著購買承諾的履行，這些供應保證付款將隨著時間的推移而退還。

Our adjusted free cash flow was $454.3 million in the September quarter. As of September 30, our consolidated cash and total investment position was $256.6 million. Our total debt increased by $45.6 million in the September quarter, and our net debt was up by $60.2 million. Over the last 21 full quarters since we closed the Microsemi acquisition and incurred over $8 billion in debt to do so, we have paid down $6.72 billion of the debt and continue to allocate substantially all of our excess cash beyond dividends and stock buyback to bring down this debt. In the September quarter, we issued a $750 million Term Loan A and retired $1 billion in bonds that matured on September 1, 2023, with the Term Loan A and proceeds from our line of credit. We also issued $1 billion of commercial paper during the September quarter, taking advantage of about a 90 basis point lower interest rate on the commercial paper compared to our line of credit rate.

九月季度調整後的自由現金流為 4.543 億美元。截至 9 月 30 日，我們的綜合現金和總投資部位為 2.566 億美元。我們的總債務在 9 月季度增加了 4,560 萬美元，淨債務增加了 6,020 萬美元。自從我們完成對美高森美的收購並為此承擔了超過80 億美元的債務以來，在過去21 個完整季度中，我們已經償還了67.2 億美元的債務，並繼續分配除股息和股票回購之外的幾乎所有多餘現金，以降低這筆債。在 9 月的季度，我們發行了 7.5 億美元的定期貸款 A，並透過定期貸款 A 和我們的信貸額度收益收回了 2023 年 9 月 1 日到期的 10 億美元債券。我們也在 9 月季度發行了 10 億美元的商業票據，利用商業票據利率比我們的信貸額度低約 90 個基點的優勢。

Our line of credit had $39 million of borrowings against it at September 30, 2023. During the September quarter, we also retired $18.2 million of total principal amount of our 2027 convertible bonds for a total cash payment of $42.7 million. The amount paid above the principal amount essentially works like a synthetic stock buyback, reducing any current and future share count dilution that could result if these convertible bonds were ever converted into shares. The $24.5 million we paid above the par value for the convertible bonds was in addition to our normal share buyback activity that we executed during the quarter, resulting in an additional reduction in the diluted share count outstanding. Our adjusted EBITDA in the September quarter was $1.152 billion and 51.1% of net sales. Our trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA was a record at $4.57 billion. Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 1.28 at September 30, 2023, down from 1.84 at September 30, 2022.

截至2023 年9 月30 日，我們的信貸額度有3,900 萬美元的借款。在9 月的季度中，我們也償還了2027 年可轉換債券本金總額的1,820 萬美元，現金支付總額為4,270 萬美元。高於本金的金額本質上就像合成股票回購一樣，減少了這些可轉換債券轉換為股票時可能導致的任何當前和未來的股票數量稀釋。我們為可轉換債券支付了高於面額的 2,450 萬美元，這是我們在本季度執行的正常股票回購活動之外的，導致稀釋後的流通股數量進一步減少。九月季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 11.52 億美元，佔淨銷售額的 51.1%。我們過去 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA 創歷史新高，達 45.7 億美元。截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日，我們的淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 1.28，低於 2022 年 9 月 30 日的 1.84。

Capital expenditures were $74.4 million in the September quarter. Our expectation for capital expenditures for fiscal year 2024 is between $300 million and $325 million, which is down from the $300 million to $350 million we shared with investors last quarter, as we are delaying certain capital given the more challenging economic backdrop. We expect that our capital investments will continue to provide us with increased control over our production during periods of industry-wide constraints. Depreciation expense in the September quarter was $47 million. I will now turn it over to Ganesh to give his comments on the performance of the business in the September quarter as well as our guidance for the December quarter. Ganesh?

9 月季度的資本支出為 7,440 萬美元。我們對2024 財年資本支出的預期在3 億至3.25 億美元之間，低於我們上季度與投資者分享的3 億至3.5 億美元，因為考慮到更具挑戰性的經濟背景，我們推遲了某些資本支出。我們預計，在全行業受到限制的時期，我們的資本投資將繼續增強我們對生產的控制力。 9 月季度的折舊費用為 4,700 萬美元。現在我將把它交給 Ganesh，讓他對 9 月季度的業務表現以及我們對 12 月季度的指導做出評論。加內什？

Thank you, Eric, and good afternoon, everyone. Our September quarter results were about as we expected, with net sales coming in just under the midpoint of our guidance and well within our guidance range. Net sales were down 1.5% sequentially and up 8.7% on a year-over-year basis. Non-GAAP gross and operating margins remained strong at 68.1% and 48.1%, respectively. Our consolidated non-GAAP diluted EPS was at the midpoint of our guidance at $1.62 per share, up 11% from the year ago quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was 51.1% of net sales, and adjusted free cash flow was 20.2% of net sales in the September quarter, continuing to demonstrate the strong cash generation characteristics of our business. Our net leverage exiting September dropped to 1.28x. We had higher cash flow outflows in the September quarter compared to the June quarter, due to the timing of tax payments and because of record capital return to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases totaling $562.6 million. This is 61% higher than the capital returned to shareholders in the June quarter.

謝謝你，埃里克，大家下午好。我們九月季度的業績與我們的預期基本一致，淨銷售額略低於我們指導的中點，並且完全在我們的指導範圍之內。淨銷售額季減 1.5%，年增 8.7%。非 GAAP 毛利率和營業利潤率依然強勁，分別為 68.1% 和 48.1%。我們的綜合非 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益處於我們指引的中點，為每股 1.62 美元，比去年同期成長 11%。九月季度調整後的 EBITDA 佔淨銷售額的 51.1%，調整後的自由現金流佔淨銷售額的 20.2%，繼續展示了我們業務強大的現金生成特徵。 9 月退出時我們的淨槓桿率降至 1.28 倍。與 6 月季度相比，我們 9 月季度的現金流出量更高，原因是納稅時間以及股息和股票回購中股東資本回報創紀錄的 5.626 億美元。這比 6 月季度返還給股東的資本高出 61%。

Our capital return to shareholders in the December quarter will increase to 77.5% of our September quarter adjusted free cash flow. As we continue on our path, towards 100% of our adjusted free cash flow to shareholders by the March quarter calendar year 2025. My thanks to all our stakeholders, who enabled us to achieve these results despite the increasingly challenging macro environment and especially to the worldwide Microchip team, whose effort and engagement enables us to navigate effectively through the business cycles. Taking a look at our first September quarter net sales from a product line and geographic perspective. Our mixed signal Microcontroller net sales were down 1.7% sequentially and up 8.5% on a year-over-year basis.

我們在 12 月季度向股東提供的資本回報率將增至 9 月季度調整後自由現金流的 77.5%。隨著我們繼續前進，我們將在 2025 年 3 月季度將調整後的自由現金流 100% 流向股東。我感謝所有利益相關者，儘管宏觀環境日益嚴峻，他們使我們能夠實現這些成果，特別是感謝全球Microchip 團隊的努力和參與使我們能夠有效地度過商業週期。從產品線和地理角度來看我們九月第一季的淨銷售額。我們的混合訊號微控制器淨銷售額季減 1.7%，年增 8.5%。

Our Analog product line, net sales were down 1.7% sequentially and up 8.8% on a year-over-year basis. On a sequential revenue basis, Asia was down, Europe was about flat and the Americas was slightly up. Now for some color on the September quarter. Our business slowed down as expected, as our customers continue to respond to the effects of increasing business uncertainty, slowing economic activity and a result in increase in inventory. The combined effects of persistent inflation and high interest rates, we believe, are contributing to the weak macro environment. All regions of the world and most end markets experienced varying degrees of weakness. We continue to receive requests to push out or cancel backlog, as customers start to rebalance their inventory in light of the weaker business conditions and increased uncertainty they were experiencing. And we were able to push out meaningful amounts of backlog to later quarters to help many customers with inventory positions. We are seeing customers continue to adjust the demand expectations as they derisk the inventory position whenever possible.

我們的類比產品線淨銷售額季減 1.7%，年增 8.8%。從環比收入來看，亞洲下降，歐洲基本上持平，美洲略有上升。現在我們來了解一下九月季度的一些情況。我們的業務如預期放緩，因為我們的客戶繼續應對業務不確定性增加、經濟活動放緩以及庫存增加的影響。我們認為，持續通膨和高利率的綜合影響導致宏觀環境疲軟。全球所有地區和大多數終端市場均出現不同程度的疲軟。鑑於業務狀況疲弱和不確定性增加，客戶開始重新平衡庫存，我們不斷收到推遲或取消積壓訂單的請求。我們能夠將大量的積壓訂單推遲到後面幾個季度，以幫助許多客戶解決庫存問題。我們看到客戶繼續調整需求預期，因為他們盡可能降低庫存狀況的風險。

Our experience from prior cycles is that at this stage of the cycle, customers tend to overcorrect their inventory and backlog due to their business uncertainty, combined with the availability of product with very short lead times. This is, in effect, the flip side of what we saw during 2021 and 2022, when demand was historically strong and seemingly insatiable. Reflecting the slow macro environment, our channel inventory grew 35 days. We are working with our channel partners to find the right balance of inventory required to serve customers, as well as to be positioned for the eventual strengthening of business conditions. Most of our internal capacity expansion actions remain paused, and we expect this will result in lower capital investments in fiscal year '24 and fiscal year '25, even as we prepare for the expected robust long-term growth of our business.

我們從先前的周期中獲得的經驗是，在周期的這個階段，由於業務不確定性，加上產品的可用性和交貨時間非常短，客戶往往會過度修正庫存和積壓訂單。實際上，這與我們在 2021 年和 2022 年看到的情況相反，當時的需求歷史性地強勁且似乎無法滿足。我們的通路庫存成長了 35 天，反映出宏觀環境放緩。我們正在與通路合作夥伴合作，尋找服務客戶所需的適當庫存平衡，並為最終加強業務條件做好準備。我們的大部分內部產能擴張行動仍處於暫停狀態，我們預計這將導致 24 財年和 25 財年的資本投資減少，儘管我們正在為業務的預期強勁長期成長做好準備。

In the meanwhile, we have been driving our lead times down and have reduced average lead times from approximately 52 weeks at the start of 2023 to approximately 26 weeks at the end of June, and exited the September quarter at approximately 13 weeks. We expect to continue to drive average lead times down further, to less than 8 weeks by the end of 2023. During a period of macro weakness and business uncertainty, we believe short lead times are the best way to help customers navigate the environment successfully and improve the quality of backlog placed on us, as it enables our customers and Microchip to engage an uncertain environment with more agility and effectiveness. However, the significant reduction in lead times is also resulting in lower bookings and reduced near-term visibility.

同時，我們一直在縮短交貨時間，並將平均交貨時間從 2023 年初的約 52 週減少到 6 月底的約 26 週，並以約 13 週結束 9 月季度。我們預計將繼續進一步縮短平均交貨時間，到2023 年底將平均交貨時間縮短至不到8 週。在宏觀經濟疲軟和業務不確定的時期，我們相信較短的交貨時間是幫助客戶成功應對環境的最佳方式可提高我們積壓的質量，因為它使我們的客戶和 Microchip 能夠更敏捷和有效地應對不確定的環境。然而，交貨時間的大幅縮短也導致預訂量減少和近期能見度降低。

Now let's get into the guidance for the December quarter. As our customers take further actions to adjust to a weakening macro environment and uncertain business conditions, we are continuing to support customers and channel partners with inventory positions to push out their backlog. Taking all the factors we have discussed on the call today into consideration, we expect our net sales for the December quarter to be between down 15% and down 20% sequentially. At the midpoint of our net sales guidance for the December quarter, our year-over-year decline for the quarter would be 14.3%. We expect our non-GAAP gross margin to be between 64% and 65% of sales. We expect non-GAAP operating expenses to be between 22.7% and 23.3% of sales. We expect non-GAAP operating profit to be between 40.7% and 42.3% of sales, and we expect our non-GAAP diluted earnings per share to be between $1.09 and $1.17 per share.

現在讓我們來看看 12 月季度的指導。隨著我們的客戶採取進一步行動來適應疲軟的宏觀環境和不確定的商業狀況，我們將繼續支持有庫存的客戶和通路合作夥伴，以消除積壓的訂單。考慮到我們今天在電話會議上討論的所有因素，我們預計 12 月季度的淨銷售額將比上一季下降 15% 至 20%。以我們 12 月季度淨銷售額指引的中點計算，該季度年減將為 14.3%。我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率將在銷售額的 64% 至 65% 之間。我們預計非 GAAP 營運費用將佔銷售額的 22.7% 至 23.3%。我們預計非 GAAP 營業利潤將在銷售額的 40.7% 至 42.3% 之間，我們預計非 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益將在每股 1.09 美元至 1.17 美元之間。

Given the current macro weakness and resultant business uncertainty, combined with our lower bookings and reduce near-term visibility, we anticipate that our March quarter revenue is likely to decline again sequentially, although to a lesser extent than the December quarter decline. Notwithstanding any near-term macro weakness, we are confident that semiconductors remain the engine of innovation for the applications and markets we serve. Our focus on total system solutions and key market megatrends is fueling strong design win momentum that we expect will drive above-market long-term growth.

鑑於當前宏觀疲軟和由此產生的業務不確定性，加上我們的預訂量減少和近期能見度降低，我們預計 3 月份季度的收入可能會再次出現環比下降，儘管降幅小於 12 月份季度的下降幅度。儘管近期宏觀經濟疲軟，但我們相信半導體仍然是我們所服務的應用和市場的創新引擎。我們對整體系統解決方案和主要市場大趨勢的關注正在推動強勁的設計獲勝勢頭，我們預計這將推動高於市場的長期成長。

If you review Microchip's speak to crop performance on a trailing 12-month basis, through the business cycles over the last 15-plus years, which is included in the investor presentation posted on our website, you will observe our consistent and resilient cash generation gross margin and operating margin results. We remain confident that our non-GAAP operating margins on a trailing 12-month basis should remain above 40% through the business cycles. With that, let me pass the baton to Steve to talk more about our cash return to shareholders.

如果您回顧 Microchip 在過去 15 年多的商業週期中過去 12 個月的農作物表現（包含在我們網站上發布的投資者簡報中），您將觀察到我們始終如一且富有彈性的現金產生總額利潤率和營業利潤率結果。我們仍然相信，在整個商業週期中，我們過去 12 個月的非 GAAP 營業利潤率應保持在 40% 以上。接下來，讓我將接力棒交給史蒂夫，並多談談我們對股東的現金回報。

Thank you, Ganesh, and good afternoon, everyone. I would like to provide you with a further update on our cash return strategy.The Board of Directors announced an increase in the dividend of 33.8% from the year ago quarter to $0.439 per share. During the last quarter, we purchased $339.8 million of our stock in the open market. We also paid out $222.8 million in dividends. Thus, the total cash return was a record $562.6 million. This amount was 72.5% of our actual adjusted free cash flow of $776 million during the June 2023 quarter. Our net leverage at the end of September 2023 quarter was 1.28x. Ever since we achieved an investment-grade rating for our debt in November 2021 and pivoted to increasing our capital return to shareholders, we have returned $3.248 billion to shareholders in September 30, 2023, by a combination of dividends and buybacks.

謝謝你，Ganesh，大家下午好。我想向您提供有關我們現金回報策略的進一步更新。董事會宣布股息比去年同期增加 33.8%，達到每股 0.439 美元。上個季度，我們在公開市場購買了 3.398 億美元的股票。我們還支付了 2.228 億美元的股息。因此，總現金回報達到創紀錄的 5.626 億美元。這筆金額佔 2023 年 6 月季度實際調整後自由現金流 7.76 億美元的 72.5%。截至 2023 年 9 月季末，我們的淨槓桿率為 1.28 倍。自從我們在 2021 年 11 月獲得債務投資等級評級並轉向提高股東資本回報以來，截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日，我們透過股息和回購的方式向股東返還了 32.48 億美元。

In the current December quarter, we will use the adjusted free cash flow from the September quarter to target the amount of cash returned to shareholders. The adjusted free cash flow excludes a net $87.5 million that we collected from our customers for long-term supply assurance payments. These payments are refundable when first 2 commitments are fulfilled. The adjusted free cash flow for the September quarter was $454.3 million. We plan to return 77.5% or $352.1 million of that amount to our shareholders with the dividend expected to be approximately $237.5 million and the stock buyback expected to be approximately $114.6 million. Going forward, we plan to continue to increase free cash flow return to shareholders by 500 basis points every quarter until we reach 100% of adjusted free cash flow returned to shareholders. That will take 5 more quarters and dividends over time, we expect will represent approximately 50% of our cash returned. With that, operator, will you please poll for questions?

在目前 12 月季度，我們將使用 9 月季度調整後的自由現金流來確定返還給股東的現金金額。調整後的自由現金流不包括我們向客戶收取的長期供應保證付款淨額 8,750 萬美元。當履行前 2 個承諾時，這些付款可退還。 9月季度調整後的自由現金流為4.543億美元。我們計劃向股東返還其中的 77.5%，即 3.521 億美元，股息預計約為 2.375 億美元，股票回購預計約為 1.146 億美元。展望未來，我們計劃繼續每季將股東的自由現金流回報增加 500 個基點，直到達到 100% 調整後的自由現金流回報股東。這還需要 5 個季度的時間，隨著時間的推移，我們預計股息將占我們現金回饋的約 50%。那麼，接線員，請您投票提問好嗎？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

First question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

第一個問題來自 Toshiya Hari 與高盛的關係。

I guess my first question is on the December quarter outlook. I think you gave a little bit of color by GEO, but I was hoping you could provide a little bit of context by end market, if any of the end markets stand out EBIT of the downside or the upside? And is this mostly volume that's driving the sequential decline in revenue? Or are you starting to see pricing erode a little bit as well?

我想我的第一個問題是關於 12 月季度展望。我認為您透過 GEO 提供了一些信息，但我希望您可以透過終端市場提供一些背景信息，是否有任何終端市場的息稅前利潤（EBIT）表現突出？這主要是銷售量導致收入連續下降嗎？或者您也開始看到價格下降？

Sure. So firstly, there is no pricing that is driving the changes. It's all volume. The weakness is very broad-based across the different geographies, across the different end markets, with perhaps the one end market, which continues to have reasonable resilience is aerospace and defense, as you might expect. But it's extremely broad-based at this point.

當然。因此，首先，不存在推動變化的定價。都是音量。正如您所預料的那樣，這一弱點在不同地區、不同終端市場上都是非常廣泛的，其中一個終端市場仍然具有合理的彈性，那就是航空航太和國防。但目前它的基礎非常廣泛。

Got it. And then as my follow-up, maybe one for Eric on gross margin and I guess, utilization rates as well. How are your factories running today, both wafer processing and packaging and test? And as you continue to adjust to evolving demand environment, how should we see that impacting gross margins beyond the December quarter? How should we think about the trough?

知道了。然後作為我的後續行動，也許是艾瑞克的毛利率，我想還有利用率。您的工廠目前（晶圓加工、封裝和測試）運作情況如何？隨著您繼續適應不斷變化的需求環境，我們應該如何看待這對 12 月季度之後的毛利率的影響？我們該如何看待低谷？

Okay. So on utilization, we have left the wafer fabs kind of reduced from where they were at the peak when they were running just full out and that has dropped modestly. We're still not in a situation where we are taking underutilization charges, and that's not anticipated in the gross margin guidance that we've provided, but they are running at lower levels and not as efficiently. On the assembly and test side, we definitely have reduced the activities in assembly and tests. We'd rather build the product through Dibang through the wafer fab and then have it ready when orders come in to be able to turn it quite quickly with short lead times to the assembly and test process. So the assembly and test is more kind of in line with where consumption is. We actually reduced finished goods last quarter, and we'll continue to be very focused on that.

好的。因此，在利用率方面，我們使晶圓廠的利用率比它們剛剛滿載運轉時的峰值有所減少，並且略有下降。我們仍然沒有採取未充分利用費用的情況，這在我們提供的毛利率指導中沒有預料到，但它們的運行水平較低，而且效率不高。在組裝和測試方面，我們確實減少了組裝和測試的活動。我們寧願透過晶圓廠透過迪邦製造產品，然後在接到訂單時準備好產品，以便能夠在短時間內將其交付到組裝和測試流程。所以組裝和測試比較符合消費情況。實際上，上個季度我們減少了成品，我們將繼續非常關注這一點。

And our next question comes from the line of Ambrish Srivastava with BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Ambrish Srivastava。

Ganesh, you mentioned cancellations in your prepared remarks, and I just wanted to get -- if you could provide us with a little bit more details around that. This is the first time you mentioned that. And so what percentage is it of your orders. And then for you, is just starting the year-over-year decline, which is kind of a related second part question is the typical cycle, I don't know, 5 to 7 quarters, year-over-year decline. What's your sense of how long does the year-over-year decline last, given the programs you have in place. Now if you look back, clearly, you were over shipping over the last few quarters. So color on both would be very helpful.

Ganesh，您在準備好的發言中提到了取消，我只是想知道您是否能為我們提供更多相關細節。這是你第一次提到這一點。那麼它佔您訂單的百分比是多少？然後對你來說，才剛開始同比下降，這是一個相關的第二部分問題，是典型的周期，我不知道，5 到 7 個季度，同比下降。考慮到您所實施的計劃，您對同比下降會持續多久有什麼看法？現在如果你回頭看，很明顯，你在過去幾季的出貨量已經超額了。因此，兩者的顏色都會非常有幫助。

So first of all, inside of 90 days, any orders that a customer has are cancelable. So that's our just standard tires. And then there are the longer-term noncancelable orders that we have worked, and we don't really work on cancellations there as much as rescheduling and pushing out where that backlog would be. A lot of the backlog that has been placed over the last many quarters were based on very long lead times and the conditions for the market for many of our customers have changed over that time. And so what they believe their businesses are going to do and what their businesses are doing today are a little bit different from when they place those orders. And that's where they're making adjustments to what they require. And if their run rates come down, then whatever units they have in inventory or they have placed on us are at a higher run rate than they really need. And that's what reflects some of the correction you're seeing to bring our shipments and the customer's inventory more on the line.

首先，在 90 天內，客戶的任何訂單都可以取消。這就是我們的標準輪胎。然後是我們已經處理過的長期不可取消訂單，我們並沒有真正處理取消訂單，而是重新安排和推遲積壓的訂單。過去幾季積壓的大量訂單都是由於交貨時間很長而造成的，而且我們許多客戶的市場條件在那段時間發生了變化。因此，他們認為自己的企業將要做的事情以及他們的企業今天正在做的事情與他們下訂單時有所不同。這就是他們根據需要進行調整的地方。如果他們的運行率下降，那麼他們庫存中的或他們放置在我們身上的任何單位的運行率都比他們真正需要的要高。這反映了您所看到的一些調整，使我們的出貨和客戶的庫存更加穩定。

And then the period of year-over-year declines on a -- if you just compare it to the last few cycles?

然後，如果您將其與最近幾個週期進行比較，那麼同比下降的時期會怎樣？

Every cycle is different. I don't know about the year-over-year decline necessarily. But when you look at historically how cycles have played out. Typically, there's a 2, 3 quarter period of time over which the digestion of that inventory takes place. And upon that being completed, the consumption, which is normally ahead of the shipments catch it back up and that's how the cycle gets reborn in what we have seen.

每個週期都是不同的。我不知道同比下降是否必然。但當你回顧歷史時，週期是如何發生的。通常，庫存需要 2、3 個季度的時間來消化。一旦完成，通常領先於發貨的消費就會恢復，這就是我們所看到的循環的重生。

Our next question comes from the line of Gary Mobley with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的加里‧莫布里 (Gary Mobley)。

You commented in your prepared remarks that you expect a further sequential decrease in the March quarter. And I would assume that, that would come with perhaps some lower gross margin attached to it. And that puts you pretty close to that 40% op margin threshold without any OpEx adjustments. So maybe you can just speak to whether or not that lower revenue comes with lower gross margin. And as well, what sort of measures you'd be willing to take to make OpEx adjustments.

您在準備好的發言中表示，預計三月季度將進一步環比下降。我認為，這可能會帶來一些較低的毛利率。這使您非常接近 40% 的營運利潤率閾值，而無需進行任何營運支出調整。因此，也許您可以談談收入下降是否會導致毛利率下降。此外，您願意採取哪些措施來調整營運支出。

So I think in any given quarter, as revenue declines, the operating margin had a very large change in revenue. It's not -- you can't draw a line and say, it will never fall below this line. We look at our operating margins on a trailing 12-month basis. That's what we've always had in terms of the data we've presented, the truck numbers that we have put out there. And we don't know exactly what the magnitude of what might take place in March is. But we're confident that if you look at a 4-quarter rolling or trailing 12 months, we will still be at that 40% trough as where we see it going.

因此，我認為在任何特定季度，隨著收入下降，營業利潤率都會對收入產生很大的變化。不是——你不能畫一條線並說，它永遠不會低於這條線。我們查看過去 12 個月的營業利益率。這就是我們一直以來提供的數據和卡車數量。我們並不確切知道三月可能發生的事情的嚴重程度。但我們有信心，如果你看看 4 個季度的滾動情況或過去 12 個月的情況，我們仍將處於我們所看到的 40% 的低谷。

I guess I would add to that is what investors and analysts have seen from Microchip over time when we face these cycles is we are pretty nimble and we adjust our business appropriately to the environment, whether that's on the expense side or if we need to do something with utilization. And right now, we're continuing to run the factories at a pretty high level, but lower than they were before. And OpEx, we have some weathers that we can pull depending on what business environment we're going to be facing in March and beyond.

我想我想補充一點，隨著時間的推移，當我們面對這些週期時，投資者和分析師從Microchip 看到的是，我們非常靈活，我們根據環境適當調整我們的業務，無論是在費用方面還是我們需要做的有利用性的東西。現在，我們繼續以相當高的水平運營工廠，但低於以前的水平。至於營運支出，我們可以根據三月及以後將面臨的商業環境來應對一些天氣狀況。

Okay. And the follow-up I want to ask about distribution inventory, which was up sequentially. I know you don't really have a sense of how quickly the think is draining or the channel is draining. But maybe if you could just give us a sense of when you could get -- see that work down a bit?

好的。後續我想問一下分銷庫存，該庫存依次上升。我知道你並沒有真正意識到思想或管道的消耗速度有多快。但也許如果你能讓我們了解一下你什麼時候可以——看到這項工作有所進展？

So in terms of timing, some of that's going to be based on what the distributors want to take in terms of inventory. And then obviously, what the end market consumption is going to be. So it's hard to forecast.Our distributors are tasked with having the right level of inventory in place to support their customers, and we will work with them to achieve that level. And just like customers, some distributors need inventory and some distributors are over inventory that are going to work through that and it takes some time. So don't have a specific way to answer your question, but I imagine over the next couple of quarters that distribution inventory will get more rightsized to whatever the distributors think is the best place for them to be.

因此，就時間安排而言，其中一些將取決於分銷商希望獲得的庫存量。顯然，終端市場的消費將會是什麼。所以很難預測。我們的經銷商的任務是擁有適當的庫存水準來支援他們的客戶，我們將與他們合作以達到這一水準。就像客戶一樣，一些分銷商需要庫存，而一些分銷商的庫存過多，這需要一些時間才能解決。因此，沒有具體的方法來回答您的問題，但我想在接下來的幾個季度中，分銷庫存將更加合理化，以適應分銷商認為最適合他們的地方。

The next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Timothy Arcuri。

(inaudible) made you a little different than your peers during the upturn was the PSP and your and CNRs. And the idea was that you don't just let customers push that out and push that out. But it does sound like that's actually what's happening. So are you sort of being a little more proactive about maybe cleaning that out and forcing them to come back and place new orders? And I'm just kind of wondering about the discussions that you're having with these customers that have been under these MCRs.

（聽不清楚）在經濟好轉期間，PSP 以及您和 CNR 使您與同行有所不同。我們的想法是，你不能只是讓客戶把它推出來。但聽起來確實是這樣。那麼，您是否會更積極主動地清理掉這些問題並迫使他們回來下新訂單？我只是想知道您與這些 MCR 下的客戶進行的討論。

So this is not the first quarter in which we have been doing that. We have mentioned that at prior calls as well. When customers are trying to place orders further out in time, they do the best they can, and that conditions change. We will have discussions with them to see what we can do to help and what they can do to help us in terms of what future business is and any business relationship that's give and take. And of course, we have done a significant amount of push-outs to help them out.

因此，這並不是我們這樣做的第一個季度。我們在之前的電話會議中也提到過這一點。當客戶試圖及時下訂單時，他們會盡力而為，但情況會改變。我們將與他們進行討論，看看我們可以做些什麼來幫助我們，他們可以做些什麼來幫助我們了解未來的業務是什麼以及任何業務關係的給予和接受。當然，我們已經做了很多努力來幫助他們擺脫困境。

Okay. And then Eric, can you give us an idea of inside of December, how much of the guidance depends on turns?

好的。然後，Eric，您能給我們介紹一下 12 月內，有多少指導取決於輪流嗎？

We do not break that out, but it's a small number.

我們沒有詳細說明這一點，但這只是一個很小的數字。

Small number. Okay.

少數。好的。

Yes, I would say that we still have more backlog on our books in total than what would be typical for us, but lead times down.

是的，我想說的是，我們的書籍積壓總量仍然比我們的典型情況要多，但交貨時間縮短了。

And our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vivek Arya 與美國銀行證券公司的聯繫。

I had one on sales and one on gross margins. On the sales side, I think Ganesh mentioned that the March quarter could decline again. And I'm wondering if there is a conceptual way to size it? So let's say, if you assume that June and September have kind of been the peak of the cycle, you should be thinking, I don't know, 25% peak to trough that kind of smart sales down mid-single digit. Is that a reasonable way to think about -- just bigger picture, do you think 25% peak to trough is a reasonable expectation of decline in this cycle, but what does history kind of tell us?

我有一份關於銷售額的報告，一份關於毛利率的報告。在銷售方面，我認為 Ganesh 提到三月季度可能會再次下降。我想知道是否有一種概念性的方法來確定它的大小？這麼說吧，如果你假設 6 月和 9 月是周期的高峰，你應該想，我不知道，25% 的高峰到谷底的智能銷售會下降中個位數。這是一個合理的思考方式嗎？從更大的角度來看，您認為 25% 的峰谷值是本週期下降的合理預期嗎？但是歷史告訴我們什麼呢？

Like the history is all over the place. And so it's unclear for us to be able to give you -- and especially when we have low visibility into the March quarter, and we have a fair amount of turns to take in the March quarter itself. The business hasn't gone away. The customers haven't gone away. The designs haven't gone away. So we know they're all there. It's now a matter of where is the macro telling our customers what their bills should be, where is their inventory at and where they will be building to as they go into the March and June quarters for themselves. But at 17.5% in the December quarter, I think this is probably one of the larger declines historically from Microchip than the first quarter of the global financial crisis. So you can see there's a pretty big chunk that is taking place here in the December quarter.

就像歷史無所不在一樣。因此，我們尚不清楚能否為您提供信息，尤其是當我們對三月份季度的能見度較低，並且我們在三月份季度本身有相當多的輪流需要進行時。生意還沒消失。顧客還沒走掉。這些設計並沒有消失。所以我們知道他們都在那裡。現在的問題是宏觀因素在哪裡告訴我們的客戶他們的帳單應該是多少，他們的庫存在哪裡，以及當他們進入三月和六月季度時他們將在哪裡建設。但 12 月所在季度為 17.5%，我認為這可能是 Microchip 歷史上比全球金融危機第一季跌幅更大的跌幅之一。因此，您可以看到 12 月季度發生了相當大的事情。

Okay. On the gross margin side, I'm trying to get a sense of both the kind of the downside risk from here? And then whenever we get to back to kind of the revenue levels in the next cycle, will gross margins get back to prior levels? So on the downside, I think you're guiding gross margins down about 350 basis points. That's also below what we have seen in prior down cycles. Is there a way to think about what is the kind of the trough is potential level? I think, Eric, you mentioned you're still keeping utilization if I recall. So what happens if you have to start cutting them? So what's the downside risk? And then part B of that is, let's say we come back to these revenue levels sometimes, right? Over the next several quarters. Will gross margins get back to 68%? Or will it be different? Because the 68% right plus/minus was achieved during a period of very strong industry pricing and shortages.

好的。在毛利率方面，我試圖從這裡了解哪種下行風險？然後，每當我們在下一個週期恢復到某種收入水準時，毛利率會恢復到先前的水準嗎？因此，從不利的方面來看，我認為你們將毛利率引導下降了約 350 個基點。這也低於我們在先前的下行週期中看到的水平。有沒有辦法思考什麼樣的低谷才是潛在水準？我想，埃里克，你提到你仍在保持利用率，如果我記得的話。那麼如果你必須開始切割它們會發生什麼事呢？那麼下行風險是什麼？ B 部分是，假設我們有時會回到這些收入水平，對嗎？在接下來的幾個季度裡。毛利率會回到68%嗎？還是會有所不同？因為 68% 的正確正負值是在行業定價非常強勁且短缺的時期實現的。

Yes. So there's a lot in that question, and I wish I had a crystal ball to answer it specifically. But the bottom line is, as I said in my response before, we will adjust our operations based on the environment that we're faced with. And with needing quite a bit of turns in the March quarter at this point in time, with short lead times, which again is not unusual but not something that we faced over the last couple of years, there is some uncertainty. But we have confidence in our business longer term. And the products that we build in our factories sell for years and years and years. So sometimes the offset between taking utilization down and then building the product and taking an inventory reserve charge for a period of time, those things can somewhat offset each other.

是的。所以這個問題涉及很多內容，我希望我有一個水晶球來具體回答它。但最重要的是，正如我之前在回覆中所說，我們將根據面臨的環境調整我們的營運。由於此時在三月季度需要相當多的周轉，而且交貨時間很短，這並不罕見，但不是我們在過去幾年中遇到的情況，因此存在一些不確定性。但我們對我們的業務的長期發展充滿信心。我們工廠生產的產品銷售多年。因此，有時降低利用率、然後建立產品以及在一段時間內收取庫存儲備費用之間的抵消，這些事情可以在一定程度上相互抵消。

So we'll evaluate that based on what we're facing when we get into March and beyond and adjust accordingly. But we fully expect our gross margins to stay strong. Yes, they are taking a drop this quarter, but still exceptionally high gross margins. And I wouldn't expect a huge drop from where they're at. But again, that kind of depends on if the environment requires us to do something different. If there's something we aren't seeing at the moment, we'd evaluate that and share that with analysts and investors at that time. Ganesh, would you want to add anything at all of that?

因此，我們將根據進入三月及以後所面臨的情況進行評估，並進行相應調整。但我們完全預計我們的毛利率將保持強勁。是的，他們本季的毛利率有所下降，但毛利率仍然異常高。而且我預計他們的水平不會大幅下降。但同樣，這取決於環境是否要求我們做一些不同的事情。如果我們目前沒有看到什麼，我們會對其進行評估，並與當時的分析師和投資者分享。 Ganesh，您想添加一些內容嗎？

I would say if the revenue was back at the levels that we can a, I see no reason why our gross margin would be back to the levels that we are at.

我想說，如果收入回到我們可以達到的水平，我認為我們的毛利率沒有理由回到我們現在的水平。

And our next question comes from the line of Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Tore Svanberg 和 Stifel。

I know this is a tricky one that we talk about over shipping and undershipping. Do you have a sense for what the true consumption is of your business at this point on a quarterly or annual basis?

我知道這是一個棘手的問題，我們談論的是過度運輸和運輸不足。您是否了解您的企業目前每季或每年的真實消耗量是多少？

Hard question to come up with because our customer demand has also shifted over the last 6 months or so as they are trying to figure out where is the macro going and what is their real demand. And so I don't know if there's a clear number we could give you that says, this is what is consumption. But as we go through this correction, we believe we will be shipping under consumption, but to what extent, I can't tell you.

這個問題很難提出，因為我們的客戶需求在過去 6 個月左右的時間裡也發生了變化，因為他們試圖弄清楚宏觀發展方向以及他們的真正需求是什麼。所以我不知道我們是否可以給你一個明確的數字來說明，這就是消費。但當我們經歷這次調整時，我們相信我們的運輸將低於消費，但到什麼程度，我不能告訴你。

That's fair. And then moving on to the operating margin and not to sort of like focus on the math here, but when you position as a trailing 12 month, I mean 1 quarter could be as low as 25%, right? So I'm just trying to understand just conceptually with your OpEx, how much variability do you have if we continue to see sequential declines in revenues?

這還算公平。然後轉向營業利潤率，而不是像這裡那樣關注數學，但當你定位為過去 12 個月時，我的意思是 1 個季度可能低至 25%，對吧？因此，我只是想從概念上了解您的營運支出，如果我們繼續看到收入連續下降，您的可變性有多大？

So we have more flexibility in our OpEx compared to what we've guided the current quarter for. We are not ready to size that for the Street at this point in time. But as I said before, you guys have seen us work through cycles before. And if the cycle gives us something that's extreme to work with, we will take more measures in our business.

因此，與我們本季的指導相比，我們的營運支出具有更大的靈活性。目前我們還沒準備好為華爾街確定這一規模。但正如我之前所說，你們之前已經看到我們在循環中工作。如果這個週期為我們帶來了一些極端的情況，我們將在我們的業務中採取更多措施。

That is not what we're hoping that we need to do, but we do have levers that we can pull that we've pulled historically that if we're faced with a more difficult environment than we anticipate, OpEx can come down from what you're seeing here in our guidance for the current quarter.

這不是我們希望需要做的，但我們確實有可以利用的槓桿，我們在歷史上曾利用過這些槓桿，如果我們面臨比我們預期更困難的環境，營運支出可以從您在我們本季度的指導中看到了這一點。

Our next question comes from the line of Joshua Buchalter with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Joshua Buchalter 和 TD Cowen 的對話。

I wanted to follow up on the utilization comments. So you mentioned matching utilizations to the business environment. But clearly, you're seeing weakness at your end customers. I guess what are the signals that would drive you to lower utilization? Like what are the -- what would you need to see? And then can you maybe expand a little bit more on the rationale behind keeping utilization high as you're trying to work through inventory, both on books and in the channel?

我想跟進使用評論。所以您提到了將利用率與業務環境相匹配。但顯然，您看到了最終客戶的弱點。我想是什麼訊號會促使您降低使用率？例如你需要看什麼？然後，當您嘗試處理書籍和頻道中的庫存時，您是否可以進一步闡述保持高利用率背後的理由？

I'll start and Ganesh or Steve can add to this. But again, our products have very, very long life cycles. If we were to cut utilization in the factories significantly, there is a large portion of the cost that you can't take out because of the very heavy fixed cost environment. And so the balance does it make sense to build the inventory, have that higher inventory, have it available to support your customers when the business environment turns positive, which it will. And that's kind of how we're managing it right now. Now you can obviously get to a point where that inventory is too high, and it doesn't make sense, and we don't think that we're in that position today, but we have let fab utilization fall from where it was, and we'll continue to monitor it on a really a weekly, monthly basis and make decisions as we go.

我先開始，Ganesh 或 Steve 可以補充。但同樣，我們的產品有非常非常長的生命週期。如果我們要大幅削減工廠的利用率，那麼由於固定成本環境非常沉重，您將無法承擔很大一部分成本。因此，平衡建立庫存、擁有更高的庫存、在商業環境轉好時為您的客戶提供支援（事實會如此）是否有意義。這就是我們現在的管理方式。現在你顯然可以達到庫存過高的地步，這是沒有意義的，我們認為我們今天沒有處於這個位置，但我們已經讓晶圓廠利用率從原來的水平下降，我們將繼續每週、每月進行監控，並隨時做出決定。

What I would add to it is ramping a fab after you take it down drastically, it takes time to get people hired, train, get the equipment and the remaining process work to be done takes time.

我要補充的是，在大幅拆除晶圓廠後，它需要時間來僱用人員、培訓、取得設備，而剩下的製程工作需要時間來完成。

So as we saw in 2021 and 2022, we put the foot on the accelerator, but it took time to get the ramps going. So I think you want to be careful as you make some of those changes. And we are making small changes to get them to where we want to be. But because we have the good fortune of products with extremely long life cycles and all of the inventory is in good shape.

因此，正如我們在 2021 年和 2022 年看到的那樣，我們踩下了油門，但需要時間才能讓坡道啟動。所以我認為你在做出一些改變時要小心。我們正在做出一些小改變，讓他們達到我們想要的目標。但因為我們有幸擁有生命週期極長的產品，而且所有庫存狀況良好。

And in fact, all that inventory allows us to do 2 great things. One, respond quickly when the business changes. And we know when it changes, it will change faster than we expect on the upside. And second, push the capital that is required to be deployed in order to generate those products further out in time. So I think it is a good asset utilization in terms of being able to be careful with how we take capacity down.

事實上，所有這些庫存使我們能夠做兩件很棒的事情。一、業務發生變化時快速響應。我們知道，當它改變時，它的變化速度會比我們預期的更快。其次，推遲生產這些產品所需的資本。因此，我認為這是一種很好的資產利用，因為我們能夠謹慎地減少產能。

I appreciate all the color there. And for my follow-up, I wanted to ask about pricing. I guess it's encouraging to hear pricing still hanging in, but there's a big investor concern that it will roll over. Can you, I guess, provide some anecdotes or what do you think is allowing firmer pricing in past cycles, because that's what's allowing margins to hang in, I think, better than far given the top line but also a major concern for investors.

我欣賞那裡的所有顏色。對於我的後續行動，我想問定價。我想聽到定價仍然穩定是令人鼓舞的，但投資者非常擔心它會滾動。我想，您能否提供一些軼事，或者您認為什麼可以讓過去週期中的定價更加堅挺，因為我認為，這就是讓利潤率保持穩定的原因，考慮到營收，這也是投資者主要關心的問題。

The pricing on our product line, which are long design cycles, very sticky product lines. In past cycles, there's never been something that rolled over, nor are we thrown to trying to use price as a way to leverage any short-term demand change because it doesn't help in where we're going. So our cycles of experience with how we have handled other cycles for pricing, plus where we are and how we're navigating this cycle. We don't feel price is a place where change is expected to happen.

我們產品線的定價，是設計週期長、黏性非常大的產品線。在過去的周期中，從來沒有什麼東西會滾動，我們也不會試圖利用價格作為槓桿任何短期需求變化的方式，因為它對我們的發展沒有幫助。因此，我們的經驗週期包括我們如何處理其他定價週期，以及我們所處的位置以及我們如何駕馭這個週期。我們認為價格不會改變。

Our next question comes from the line of William Stein with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 William Stein。

Great. Guys, I know you're only guiding a quarter, but you made this comment on March, I think about a sequential decline. By my math, I think typical seasonality is down at least a couple of percentage points. And just to help us sensitize our models, would you anticipate another, as you called it last time, I think, amplified or magnified seasonality in Q1? Or do you think it's possible that we're more like a normal seasonal result?

偉大的。夥計們，我知道你們只指導了一個季度，但你們在三月發表了這個評論，我認為是連續下降。根據我的計算，我認為典型的季節性至少下降了幾個百分點。為了幫助我們提高模型的敏感性，我認為您是否會預期第一季會出現另一個（正如您上次所說的）放大或放大的季節性？或者您認為我們可能更像正常的季節性結果？

Well, there's so little visibility that we can apply to any kind of intelligent answer at this point in time. We need to get further down the time to see how next quarter takes shape. And we're guiding to just one quarter -- the December quarter at this point in time. We've given you some directionally where our sense is for the March quarter, but in terms of the magnitude, there's nothing that we can provide at this point that would be helpful.

嗯，目前我們可以應用到任何類型的智慧答案的可見度太少了。我們需要進一步縮短時間，看看下個季度的情況如何。目前我們只預測一個季度——也就是 12 月所在的季度。我們已經向您提供了我們對三月季度的一些方向性看法，但就幅度而言，我們目前無法提供任何有幫助的資訊。

Understood. I have a follow-up, if I can. I'm hoping you can size for us the amount of sales in the December quarter that you anticipate will be filled as part of the PSP program. And similarly, how much PSP backlog you have after December still on the books? It just seems to me with lead times at 13 weeks going to -- I think you said 8. It's hard to imagine customers are lining up for that still.

明白了。如果可以的話，我有一個後續行動。我希望您能為我們確定 12 月份季度的銷售量，您預計這些銷售量將作為 PSP 計劃的一部分得到滿足。同樣，12 月之後，您的帳面上還有多少 PSP 積壓訂單？在我看來，交貨時間為 13 週——我想你說的是 8 週。很難想像客戶還在排隊等待。

So you're right. PSP had a time when it was far more important for customers to be enrolled and to be taking advantage of that priority. As cycle times come down, there are fewer PSP orders that are needed for many customers. It's not that it's gone away. It's still there in a reasonable amount, but it's typically the customers who are very long cycle in their design and very high value in their end products. Because quite honestly, there are many parts of the market that are concerned about what happens on the flip side of the cycle, whatever that is in the second half of '24, et cetera. So it's a customer choice. No customer has to use PSP unless they believe it provides them a tool. And we made adjustments to the program to give them more flexibility, have shorter amount of window of time, et cetera. And we'll continue to evolve the program. And if there's use for it, customers will take advantage of it. And if they want, if there isn't, then they won't.

所以你是對的。 PSP 曾經有一段時間，讓客戶註冊並利用這項優先權變得更加重要。隨著週期時間的縮短，許多客戶所需的 PSP 訂單也隨之減少。並不是說它消失了。它仍然有一個合理的數量，但通常是設計週期很長、最終產品價值很高的客戶。因為老實說，市場上很多人都擔心週期的另一面會發生什麼，無論 24 年下半年會發生什麼，等等。所以這是客戶的選擇。沒有客戶必須使用 PSP，除非他們相信 PSP 為他們提供了工具。我們對計劃進行了調整，為他們提供更大的靈活性、更短的時間窗口等等。我們將繼續改進該計劃。如果它有用，客戶就會利用它。如果他們想要，如果沒有，那麼他們就不會。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And our next question comes from the line of Chris Danely with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的克里斯‧丹尼利 (Chris Danely)。

Question on the geos, I guess. So in terms of all these cancellations and pushouts in the forecast, have any geographies fared any better or worse as we're going through this correction?

我猜是關於地理的問題。那麼，就預測中的所有這些取消和推遲而言，在我們經歷這次調整時，是否有任何地區的表現更好或更差？

No, because a lot of our customers can be in multiple geographies can be headquartered in the U.S., but manufacturing in a different geography. And so the intensity or the requirements for push out and help is -- has no geographic signal that would be different.

不會，因為我們的許多客戶可能位於多個地區，也可能總部位於美國，但在不同的地區進行製造。因此，推出和幫助的強度或要求是——沒有任何不同的地理訊號。

Okay. Yes, I know you said North America was flattish in the previous quarter. I was wondering if anything was still holding up or worse. As my follow-up, so we've seen some of these internal China OEMs finally start to do their own analog or mixed signal chips. BYD doing their own BMS solution is one of them. And it seems like they don't really care about quality or cost or what have you. Can you give us a sense if you know of roughly how much of your business goes to domestic China? And do you see any risk that the non-China MCU business could kind of issues with this?

好的。是的，我知道您說過北美上一季表現平平。我想知道是否還有什麼事情仍然存在或更糟。作為我的後續行動，我們看到一些中國內部 OEM 終於開始生產自己的類比或混合訊號晶片。比亞迪做自己的BMS解決方案就是其中之一。看起來他們並不真正關心品質或成本或你擁有什麼。您能否大致了解一下您的業務中有多少是流向中國國內的？您是否認為非中國 MCU 業務可能會遇到這種問題？

So the proportion of what goes into China for China of a broad-based product line, I would say it's probably under 5-ish percent or in that range. I don't have an exact number, so don't hold me to that. The difference is that, this is not new that we have competition in China. The business is extremely fragmented. There's hundreds thousands customers and applications that are there. And so even previously, we would have had some designs where somebody didn't care about quality or didn't care about something else and said I'm just going to use this. And that's not unusual in where it happened. So it is something we are paying attention to but not something which is creating a dramatic change in the business itself.

因此，我想說，進入中國的產品在廣泛的產品線中所佔的比例可能低於 5％左右或在這個範圍內。我沒有確切的數字，所以不要讓我知道。不同的是，我們在中國的競爭並不新鮮。業務極為分散。那裡有數十萬個客戶和應用程式。因此，即使在以前，我們也會有一些設計，其中有人不關心品質或不關心其他東西，並說我只是要使用這個。這在事情發生的地方並不罕見。因此，這是我們正在關注的事情，但並不是為業務本身帶來巨大變化的事情。

Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Rolland with SIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 Christopher Rolland 與 SIG 的對話。

Can you guys talk about or give us a rough idea of what percent of bookings coming into any of these quarters are being pushed out each quarter? And is that representative basically of the December sequential drop that we're getting here? As you guys mentioned, like that you really didn't have any turns business into the quarter. And I think December has traditionally been somewhat flat. And are these levels of pushouts, are they increasing progressively as we move along here?

你們能否談談或讓我們大致了解一下每個季度進入這些季度的預訂量中有多少百分比被推遲？這基本上代表了我們所看到的 12 月環比下降嗎？正如你們提到的那樣，你們本季確實沒有任何業務轉入。我認為 12 月曆來表現平淡。隨著我們在這裡前進，這些驅逐程度是否會逐漸增加？

So let me start and then Eric might want to chime in here as well. So firstly, new bookings are not the place where people are trying to push things out, because if they are new bookings within the last 3 to 6 months of time, those are with much more informed sense for demand, supply market, et cetera. A lot of the pushout requests for backlog that was placed 9, 12 or longer months where, as time has gone on, the need as they perceive this when they place the orders and the need as they see it today when they are facing the reality of what the markets have changed to, are different. So new bookings actually are in far better shape just because they are much more informed about current market conditions.

那麼就讓我開始吧，然後艾瑞克可能也想插話一下。因此，首先，新預訂並不是人們試圖推出的地方，因為如果它們是過去 3 到 6 個月內的新預訂，那麼這些新預訂對需求、供應市場等有更明智的認識。許多積壓訂單的推出請求已放置了 9 個月、12 個月或更長時間，隨著時間的推移，他們在下訂單時所感知到的需求以及他們今天在面對現實時所看到的需求市場變化的情況有所不同。因此，新預訂實際上狀況要好得多，因為他們更了解當前的市場狀況。

Right. Well, I guess what I would add to that is those new bookings have been pretty modest that have been coming in, right? So bookings have been lower. We don't break out a book-to-bill, but bookings have been low. And the bottom line is, I think it's very difficult for customers to know what they need, particularly with those orders as Ganesh was saying they were placed 9 or 12 months ago. But we have had certain instances where customers have actually asked for a pushout, and then the next month, they're coming back to us and asking for us to pull it in. So I think it's just a very uncertain environment at the customer level, and obviously, that causes some churn on our backlog and the request that we get for push out activity.

正確的。好吧，我想我要補充的是，這些新預訂的數量相當有限，對嗎？所以預訂量較低。我們沒有公佈訂單到帳單的情況，但預訂量一直很低。最重要的是，我認為客戶很難知道他們需要什麼，特別是那些訂單，正如 Ganesh 所說，這些訂單是在 9 或 12 個月前下的。但在某些情況下，客戶實際上要求退出，然後下個月，他們又回到我們這裡並要求我們將其拉入。所以我認為這只是客戶層面的一個非常不確定的環境顯然，這會導致我們的積壓工作和我們收到的推出活動請求出現一些波動。

And they have a benefit today of knowing that supply is readily available, that lead times are short, and they are taking advantage of that, which would make sense.

他們今天的一個好處是知道供應很容易獲得，交貨時間很短，他們正在利用這一點，這是有道理的。

Yes, I think that's a great tie-in maybe to my next question. I guess with hindsight, how do you guys evaluate instituting that 12-month PSP was that a good thing, a bad thing? Would you do it again? And if so, were there any changes you would make?

是的，我認為這可能與我的下一個問題有很好的聯繫。我想事後看來，你們如何評價實行 12 個月的 PSP 是好事還是壞事？你會再做嗎？如果是這樣，您會做出任何改變嗎？

It's a question we ask ourself all the time. But I think you also have to look at not 12 months as a stand-alone piece of information, right? It is what were the lead times. So even if -- when lead times are 52 weeks, you really can't offer somebody something inside of that because there isn't -- all the capacity within that window is already consumed. So like all programs, they have to be designed with a sense of the information at a given point in time, and they have to evolve as that information changes. And so even on PSP, right, it used to be 12 months. Today, 6 months. We made that change several months ago. The flexibilities, et cetera, around or have changed.

這是我們一直問自己的問題。但我認為您還必須將 12 個月視為一條獨立的訊息，對吧？這就是交貨時間。因此，即使 - 當交貨時間為 52 週時，你真的無法向某人提供其中的東西，因為沒有 - 該窗口內的所有容量都已被消耗。因此，像所有程式一樣，它們的設計必須考慮到給定時間點的信息，並且它們必須隨著資訊的變化而發展。所以即使在 PSP 上，對吧，過去也是 12 個月。今天，6個月了。我們幾個月前就做出了這個改變。靈活性等發生了變化或已經發生了變化。

And each program is designed to create a customer solution. And that solution has to be sensitive to what problem we're trying to solve at a given point in time. PSP was a fantastic program for '21 and '22 and parts of '23 when there was very long lead times, then the customers who participated got the most benefit from there. Today, it has less value when cycle -- when lead times come down dramatically and for other than a small set of customers, it is not as important to provide that much visibility.

每個計劃都是為了創建客戶解決方案而設計的。該解決方案必須對我們在給定時間點試圖解決的問題敏感。 PSP 對於 21 年和 22 年以及 23 年的部分時間來說是一個很棒的計劃，當時的交付時間很長，然後參與的客戶從中獲得了最大的利益。如今，它在周期中的價值降低了——當交貨時間急劇縮短時，除了一小部分客戶之外，提供那麼多的可見性並不那麼重要。

Yes. And I've said this to investors time and time again that if we had not had PSP, I am confident that our backlog would have been higher, but we wouldn't have known what was good backlog and what was bad backlog, and we would have made the wrong decisions in terms of foundry orders that we made, capital equipment that we are putting in place. And so the PSP program was designed in a way where we were trying to service customers in a very long lead time environment where we were capacity constrained, and give the customer an option to do that, but then have skin in the game also where just not all that risk sell on Microchip. So there's a lot of good things that came with PSP. Obviously, when the cycle changes, customers can feel differently about the backlog that they place than they did when they placed the order, but there were a lot of happy customers that we serve us well because of the program.

是的。我一次又一次地對投資者說，如果我們沒有 PSP，我相信我們的積壓會更高，但我們不會知道什麼是好的積壓，什麼是壞的積壓，我們就我們所下的鑄造訂單和我們正在安裝的資本設備而言，我們會做出錯誤的決定。因此，PSP 計劃的設計方式是，我們試圖在產能有限的交貨時間很長的環境中為客戶提供服務，並為客戶提供這樣做的選擇，但同時也需要參與其中並非所有風險都在Microchip 上出售。 PSP 帶來了很多好東西。顯然，當週期發生變化時，客戶對他們所積壓的訂單的感受可能與下訂單時不同，但由於該計劃，我們為我們提供了良好的服務，因此有很多滿意的客戶。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Caso with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Chris Caso。

The question is on the cash return program and the buybacks and understand that the program is really meant to be formulaic. But the question is, is there any flexibility within that program to be more opportunistic at times like these? And obviously, you guys are still generating a good amount of cash, but taking advantage when the downturn in the stock is down, have you contemplated that?

問題在於現金返還計劃和回購，並了解該計劃實際上是公式化的。但問題是，該計劃是否有任何靈活性，可以在這樣的時候變得更加機會主義？顯然，你們仍在賺取大量現金，但在股票低迷時利用，你們有考慮過嗎？

Let me get it kicked off, and I think Steve might want to weigh in here as well. So the program is something that the Board looks at on a constant basis. And there is nothing that would prevent us from doing something which is opportunistic for the right reasons, if the Board believes that's the right action for us. Steve, do you want to add to that?

讓我開始吧，我想史蒂夫也可能想在這裡發表意見。因此，該計劃是董事會不斷關注的內容。如果董事會認為這對我們來說是正確的行動，那麼沒有什麼可以阻止我們出於正確的理由做一些機會主義的事情。史蒂夫，你想補充嗎？

So while the main body of the program is formulaic, where we are increasing the cash return to shareholders by 500 basis points every quarter and increasing our dividend by about 7% or so every quarter, and the remaining amount becomes the stock buyback, the program doesn't prohibit us from taking advantage of the environment where start gets into a severe downdraft for any reason. We can certainly have the cash resources on our credit line and all that to the forward buy the stock from the following quarter and then buy less than the following quarter. So we didn't stop us from doing that. We have not done that so far. I think stocks has been kind of reasonably constant in the range of between $70 and $90, but if there was to be a substantial opportunity at a lower stock price, which was to emerge for any reason, then Microchip has the flexibility to do anything we wanted to do.

因此，雖然該計劃的主體是公式化的，即我們每季度將股東的現金回報增加 500 個基點，並將股息每季度增加約 7% 左右，剩下的金額將成為股票回購，但該計劃併不禁止我們利用start因任何原因陷入嚴重衰退的環境。我們當然可以在信用額度上擁有現金資源，以及所有這些資源，以便從下個季度遠期購買股票，然後購買少於下個季度的股票。所以我們沒有阻止我們這樣做。到目前為止我們還沒有這樣做。我認為股票在70 美元到90 美元的範圍內相當穩定，但如果有一個以較低股價存在的大量機會（無論出於何種原因出現），那麼Microchip 就可以靈活地做任何我們想做的事情。想做。

And of course, we have the headroom and what's the approved buyback. There's over $2 billion of headroom available there, and we have the headroom in our line of credit.

當然，我們還有空間以及核准的回購。那裡有超過 20 億美元的可用空間，而且我們的信貸額度也有這個空間。

Got it. That's helpful. As a follow-up, I just want to return to gross margin and the utilization. And I guess asking perhaps some of the questions that have been answered in a different way. Is there a particular level of inventory that would make you uncomfortable that would cause you to reduce the utilization? And I guess part of this depends upon somewhat the duration of the downturn, how long the downturn should last?

知道了。這很有幫助。作為後續，我只想回到毛利率和利用率。我想也許會問一些已經以不同方式回答的問題。是否有特定的庫存水準會讓您感到不舒服，從而導致您降低利用率？我想這在某種程度上取決於經濟低迷的持續時間，經濟低迷應該持續多久？

I think that's a key point to look at there because if you're looking at your inventory on a backward-looking basis or current quarter type basis and what that drives, but you have confidence that 2 quarters, 3 quarters, 4 quarters, 6 quarters, whatever out in time that the business is going to go back and exceed prior highs, you're going to take a different action than if you think the business is in decline mode or in stagnant mode. So those are all the things that we need to evaluate when determining how we're going to run our factories and what's the right position for the inventory. And we've got our position today. And as I've said, we'll continue to evaluate that based on the environment that we see in front of us.

我認為這是一個值得關注的關鍵點，因為如果您在回顧的基礎上或當前季度類型的基礎上查看您的庫存以及其驅動因素，但您有信心2 個季度、3 個季度、4 個季度、6 個季度在接下來的幾個季度中，無論業務何時會回升並超過先前的高點，您都將採取與您認為業務處於衰退模式或停滯模式不同的行動。因此，這些都是我們在確定如何運作工廠以及庫存的正確位置時需要評估的所有內容。今天我們已經確定了立場。正如我所說，我們將繼續根據我們面前的環境進行評估。

And our next question comes from the line of Vijay Rakesh with Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vijay Rakesh 和 Mizuho 的對話。

I was just wondering, is there like a target inventory level that you want to maintain? Or on the flip side of that is at what point do you start to talk to back utilization this?

我只是想知道，您是否想要維持一個目標庫存水準？或者另一方面，您從什麼時候開始談論這一點？

So our target levels that we said at our Analyst and Investor Day back in November of 2021 was 130 to 150 days. We are obviously above those levels today, and there's reasons for that. And I think some of your question I responded to in response to the prepared question. So we're not uncomfortable with where the inventory is today, we're going to watch it closely depending on the environment, and then it's going to be what the outlook is in terms of are we comfortable continuing to run the fabs at the levels that they're running at today or if we need to do something different. Not at that point today where we're going to do something different. Yes, inventory is above our target levels, but I think we're managing it appropriately, and we'll continue to do so.

因此，我們在 2021 年 11 月的分析師和投資者日上表示的目標水準是 130 至 150 天。今天我們顯然高於這些水平，這是有原因的。我認為我對你的一些問題的回答是為了回答準備好的問題。因此，我們對今天的庫存狀況並不感到不舒服，我們將根據環境密切關注，然後我們將根據我們是否願意繼續以現有水平運營晶圓廠來確定前景。他們今天正在運行，或者我們是否需要做一些不同的事情。今天我們不會做一些不同的事情。是的，庫存高於我們的目標水平，但我認為我們正在適當地管理它，並且我們將繼續這樣做。

I would add that in steady state is where the 130 to 150 is where we want to be. If you look back at the last cycle, I think we were down like 108, 109 days and -- that was what it was in the place where demand was so high was depleting our inventory. Today, we're at 167, 10 days of that are really last time buys. So you take that out, we're around 157. So we're not dramatically outside of the steady-state range that we would need to be.

我想補充一點，在穩定狀態下，130 到 150 是我們想要的。如果你回顧上一個週期，我認為我們下降了 108、109 天，這就是需求如此高導致庫存耗盡的地方。今天，我們的價格為 167，這 10 天確實是最後一次購買。所以你把它去掉，我們大約是 157。所以我們並沒有顯著超出我們需要的穩態範圍。

Got it. No, the reason I ask is because the revenues might step down, the DOI might spike -- Got it. And then as you look at the market conditions, can you talk to where the inventory levels are trending? And does that prompt -- are you seeing any pushback on pricing in the supply chain as supply comes on or has demand conditions soften a bit, if you can give some color on that?

知道了。不，我問的原因是因為收入可能會下降，DOI 可能會飆升——明白了。然後，當您觀察市場狀況時，您能談談庫存水準的趨勢嗎？這是否提示——隨著供應的增加或需求狀況的減弱，您是否看到供應鏈中的定價出現任何阻力，如果您能對此提供一些說明的話？

So firstly, we don't -- at our distributors, we have view into the inventory we have. At our customers, we use their requests for pushouts and all that as a proxy for understanding it. But customers have many business units, many product lines, and they could be and certain product lines wanting to push out and other ones, they want to pull in. So it's all over the place. And there was a second part of your question.

因此，首先，我們不會在經銷商處查看我們的庫存。對於我們的客戶，我們使用他們的推播請求以及所有這些作為理解它的代理。但客戶有很多業務部門、很多產品線，他們可能想要推出某些產品線，想要引進其他產品線。所以到處都是。你的問題還有第二部分。

Pricing. Wasn't quite sure if that was a customer pricing or a supplier pricing? Is it supply chain pricing or are customer pricing that you're asking about?

價錢。不太確定這是客戶定價還是供應商定價？您詢問的是供應鏈定價還是客戶定價？

Your customer pricing in terms of -- as the market conditions change, as the supply improves, if inventory levels go up, is that now becoming a part of the discussion?

隨著市場狀況的變化，隨著供應的改善，如果庫存水準上升，您的客戶定價是否會成為討論的一部分？

All the purchasing managers are going to ask for a lower price in an environment that is softer. But these are products where the price elasticity isn't there where somehow if we put a lower price, we get more different this quarter or next quarter, et cetera. These are long design cycles. Prices have stepped 18, 24 or 36 (inaudible) was at the point of designing, and we will be competitive at the point where we do the design business. Business itself in the short term is not affected by the pricing.

所有採購經理都會在疲軟的環境中要求更低的價格。但這些產品不存在價格彈性，如果我們定價較低，我們在本季或下季會得到更多不同，等等。這些都是很長的設計週期。在設計時，價格已經上漲了 18、24 或 36（聽不清楚），而我們在開展設計業務時將具有競爭力。業務本身短期內不會受到定價的影響。

Our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自哈蘭·蘇爾 (Harlan Sur) 與摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 的對話。

Maybe another one on just the inventories. Last quarter, you talked about the lower-than-expected sell-through in China, which was largely responsible for the rising channel inventories in June? Or do I think days increased, I think it was 5 days back in June, days increased another 6 days here in the September quarter. Was this primarily continued sell-through weakness in China? Or was the pickup more pronounced in other geographies?

也許還有一個關於庫存的問題。上個季度，您談到了中國的銷量低於預期，這在很大程度上是造成 6 月份渠道庫存上升的原因？或者我認為天數增加了，我認為 6 月份時天數增加了 5 天，9 月季度的天數又增加了 6 天。這主要是中國銷量持續疲軟嗎？還是其他地區的回升更為明顯？

I'd say that the sell-through was not strong in any geography. So we did not see any significant improvement in distribution sell-through So...

我想說的是，在任何地區，銷售量都不強。所以我們沒有看到分銷銷售有任何顯著改善所以...

And China has continued to be weak. We have not seen the level of improvement we expected out of China, and there's plenty of news information about what's happening from an economy standpoint here.

而中國則持續疲軟。我們還沒有看到中國的改善程度達到我們預期，而且從經濟角度來看，有大量關於中國正在發生的事情的新聞資訊。

Ganesh, you talked about the relative strength in aerospace and defense. You've -- your data center and compute franchise, I think probably now it's about 20% of your business. Mix demand trends here as well, but you guys are exposed to some of the stronger areas like accelerated compute? How is this end market trending for the team?

Ganesh，您談到了航空航太和國防領域的相對實力。我認為，您的資料中心和計算特許經營權現在可能佔您業務的 20% 左右。這裡也混合了需求趨勢，但你們接觸過一些更強大的領域，例如加速運算？該團隊的終端市場趨勢如何？

So I think on data center, I think the last breakout there was about 17% or so in that range. But there are many subsegments that go into it. We clearly have a tailwind on anything and everything that goes into the artificial intelligence and the generative AI space, et cetera. But in terms of the volume that, that drives and the dollars that it drives, while it is meaningful, it's not big enough to offset some of the other weakness we have in other parts of data set.

因此，我認為在資料中心方面，我認為上次突破的比例約為 17% 左右。但其中還有許多細分領域。顯然，我們對人工智慧和生成人工智慧領域等領域的一切事物都有順風順水。但就其驅動的數量和驅動的美元而言，雖然它很有意義，但它還不足以抵消我們在資料集其他部分中存在的一些其他弱點。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自喬摩爾與摩根士丹利的對話。

Ganesh, you talked about every cycle being different in this cycle in the upturn, it seemed like the shortages were more severe. You did see prices go up more on a like-for-like basis and your margins got higher than we've seen before. So I guess as you think about the downturn, is that going to reverse? Or do you have a situation where there's more awareness of the supply chain people want to hold more inventory because of the intensity of the shortages? Can you just tell us like how the strength in the last couple of years might portend for the next couple of quarters?

Ganesh，您談到每個週期都不同，在這個好轉的周期中，短缺似乎更加嚴重。您確實看到價格同比上漲更多，而且您的利潤率也比我們以前看到的要高。所以我想當你考慮經濟低迷時，這種情況會逆轉嗎？或者您是否遇到這樣的情況：由於嚴重短缺，供應鏈人員的意識增強，希望持有更多庫存？您能告訴我們過去幾年的強勁勢頭對未來幾季的預示嗎？

I think different customers have different levels of strategic versus tactical thinking. Last night, I have been with the CEO of one of our largest customers and extremely thoughtful about not just the next one quarter, but about the next 3, 4 years of time and how they want to plan for it. I've also had similar discussions with people who were for 2 or 3 years suffering for with lack of product and all of a sudden they've forgotten about all the things that they need to be able to do. So it's all over the place, and it really depends on what the pressure they're under.

我認為不同的客戶有不同程度的策略與戰術思考。昨晚，我與我們最大客戶之一的執行長會面，不僅考慮了下一個季度，還考慮了未來 3、4 年的時間以及他們希望如何規劃。我也曾與一些人進行過類似的討論，他們在兩三年內因缺乏產品而苦苦掙扎，突然間他們忘記了他們需要做的所有事情。所以到處都有，這實際上取決於他們承受的壓力。

But for the most part, what we see is our customers or our customers' customers in many cases, who are people who build many of the high-value systems are much more thoughtful about how a small piece of the bill of material is not where they need to be able to make a saving, while they have substantial value that they're trying to create at the overall system. So there's no single answer because we serve 100,000 customers. It's all over the place. But without a doubt, short lead times are giving them more flexibility in terms of what are they trying to place on us and how much time do they need to give us in many cases.

但在大多數情況下，我們看到的是我們的客戶，或者我們客戶的客戶，在很多情況下，他們是構建許多高價值系統的人，他們對於一小部分物料清單如何不在何處更加考慮周到。他們需要能夠節省開支，同時他們試圖在整個系統中創造巨大的價值。所以沒有單一的答案，因為我們為 100,000 名客戶提供服務。到處都是。但毫無疑問，較短的交貨時間使他們在試圖向我們提供什麼以及在許多情況下需要給我們多少時間方面提供了更大的靈活性。

And our next question will come again from the line of Ambrish Srivastava with BMO.

我們的下一個問題將再次來自 BMO 的 Ambrish Srivastava。

I had a quick one for you, Eric. What's the target days of inventory for distributors?

我為你準備了一份快速的，艾瑞克。經銷商的目標庫存天數是多少？

So we don't really have a target. It's been all over the place historically. It's been as low as 17 days, and it's been as high as, I think, is 47 in our history and probably as high as 41 over the last maybe 10, 12 years. So it's a broad range. And ultimately, it's the distributor's decision on the product that they purchase and how they support their customers. And obviously, they need a certain amount of inventory to effectively serve their customer base. And if they don't hold that inventory, the end customer will find another channel buy that product through. So we don't drive it to a certain number of days. I would not be surprised in the current environment that distributors with interest rates where they are, if they try to take their inventory down to some degree. But where that goes to, it's very hard for us to predict.

所以我們其實沒有目標。歷史上到處都是這樣的情況。最低的為 17 天，最高的我認為是我們歷史上的 47 天，在過去的 10、12 年裡可能最高為 41 天。所以它的範圍很廣。最終，這是分銷商對其購買的產品以及如何支援客戶的決定。顯然，他們需要一定數量的庫存才能有效地服務其客戶群。如果他們沒有庫存，最終客戶將找到另一個管道購買該產品。所以我們不會把它開到一定的天數。在當前的環境下，如果經銷商試圖在一定程度上降低庫存，我不會感到驚訝。但它會走向何方，我們很難預測。

If I can add to the distributor business over time has also changed. They do the warehousing services for many OEMs, where they actually carry in pipeline inventory for them. So they have programs that are not the traditional distribution where they are carrying the product and the turns rate is not the same when they are pipelining for very large OEMs. So inventory, as Eric said, something that each distributor has a model for what they're trying to accomplish and what they want and what they need is where they end up at.

如果我能加上經銷商的話，生意隨著時間的推移也改變了。他們為許多原始設備製造商提供倉儲服務，實際上為他們提供管道庫存。因此，他們的程序不是傳統的分銷方式，他們在傳統的分銷方式中攜帶產品，並且當他們為非常大的原始設備製造商進行管道輸送時，週轉率也不同。因此，正如艾瑞克所說，庫存是每個分銷商都有一個模型，用於說明他們想要實現的目標以及他們想要的東西和他們需要的東西就是他們最終的目標。

And your business has changed a lot also over the years, you have airspace. It depends what you don't have several years ago. So that's why I was asking. And I think you gave a helpful answer a little bit on the target of inventory days, Ganesh, that depend is also you're carrying at the end of life. So you're not that far out of the range on where you are versus your target shared at the Analyst Day.

多年來，您的業務也發生了很大變化，您擁有空域。這取決於幾年前你沒有什麼。所以這就是我問的原因。我認為你對庫存天數的目標給了一些有用的答案，Ganesh，這也取決於你在生命結束時所攜帶的。因此，與分析師日分享的目標相比，您目前的情況並沒有超出範圍那麼遠。

Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the call back to management for closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，目前沒有其他問題了。我想將電話轉交給管理階層以供結束語。

Okay. I want to thank everybody for participating in the call today. And we do have many events that we will be at during the course of this quarter, and we look forward to talking to you more at those events. Thank you.

好的。我要感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們確實將在本季度參加許多活動，我們期待在這些活動中與您進行更多交談。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。