微晶片科技 (MCHP) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Microchip Technology Q2 Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Eric Bjornholt, Chief Financial Officer.

大家好，歡迎參加 Microchip Technology 2024 財年第二季財務業績電話會議。 （操作員指示）溫馨提示：本次會議正在錄製中。現在，請將會議交給主持人、財務長 Eric Bjornholt。

Good afternoon, everybody. During the course of this conference call, we will be making projections and other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company. We wish to caution you that such statements are predictions and that actual events or results may differ materially. We refer you to our press release as of today as well as our recent filings with the SEC that identify important risk factors that may impact Microchip's business and results of operations. In attendance with me today are Ganesh Moorthy, Microchip's President and CEO and Steve Sanghi, Microchip's Executive Chair; and Sajid Daudi, Microchip's Head of Investor Relations. I will comment on our second quarter fiscal year 2024 financial performance. Ganesh will then provide commentary on our results and discuss the current business environment as well as our guidance. And Steve will provide an update on our cash return strategy. We will then be available to respond to specific investor and analyst questions.

各位下午好。在本次電話會議中，我們將對公司未來事件或未來財務表現做出預測和其他前瞻性陳述。我們在此提醒您，此類陳述僅為預測，實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。請參閱我們今天的新聞稿以及我們最近向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的文件，其中列出了可能影響 Microchip 業務和營運績效的重要風險因素。今天與我一同出席電話會議的嘉賓包括 Microchip 總裁兼執行長 Ganesh Moorthy、Microchip 執行主席 Steve Sanghi 以及 Microchip 投資者關係主管 Sajid Daudi。我將就我們 2024 財年第二季的財務表現進行評論。 Ganesh 隨後將對我們的業績進行評論，並討論當前的業務環境以及我們的預期。 Steve 將介紹我們現金回報策略的最新情況。之後，我們將回答投資人和分析師的具體問題。

We are including information in our press release and this conference call on various GAAP and non-GAAP measures. We have posted a full GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation on the Investor Relations page of our website at www.microchip.com, and included reconciliation information in our earnings press release, which we believe you will find useful when comparing GAAP and non-GAAP results. We have also posted a summary of our outstanding debt and our leverage metrics on our website. I will now go through some of the operating results, including net sales, gross margin and operating expenses. Other than net sales, I will be referring to these results on a non-GAAP basis, which is based on expenses prior to the effects of our acquisition activities, share-based compensation and certain other adjustments as described in our earnings press release and the reconciliations on our website.

我們在新聞稿和本次電話會議中納入了各種 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標的資訊。我們已在公司網站 www.microchip.com 的投資者關係頁面上發布了完整的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 對照表，並在收益新聞稿中包含了對照信息，我們相信這些信息在比較 GAAP 和非 GAAP 業績時會有所幫助。我們也在網站上發布了未償債務和槓桿率指標的摘要。現在，我將介紹一些營運業績，包括淨銷售額、毛利率和營運費用。除淨銷售額外，我將以非 GAAP 為基礎的這些業績，即扣除收購活動、股權激勵以及收益新聞稿和網站上的對照表中所述的某些其他調整的影響之前的費用。

Net sales in the September quarter were $2.254 billion, which were down 1.5% sequentially. We have posted a summary of our net sales by product line and geography on our website for your reference. On a non-GAAP basis, gross margins were 68.1%, operating expenses were at 20% and operating income was a record 48.1%. Non-GAAP net income was $889.3 million and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share was $1.62. On a GAAP basis in the September quarter, gross margins were 67.8%, total operating expenses were $642.4 million, and included acquisition intangible amortization of $151.4 million, special charges of $1.8 million, share-based compensation of $38 million and $1.1 million of other expensesGAAP net income was a record $666.6 million, resulting in a record $1.21 in earnings per diluted share. Our non-GAAP cash tax rate was 14.2% in the September quarter. Our non-GAAP tax rate for fiscal year 2024 is expected to be about 14.2%, which is exclusive of the transition tax and any tax audit settlements related to taxes accrued in prior fiscal years.

9月當季淨銷售額為22.54億美元，季減1.5%。我們已在網站上發布了按產品線和地區劃分的淨銷售額摘要，供您參考。以非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 計算，毛利率為68.1%，營運費用為20%，營運收入達到創紀錄的48.1%。非公認會計準則淨收入為8.893億美元，非公認會計準則每股收益為1.62美元。以公認會計準則 (GAAP) 計算，9月份當季毛利率為67.8%，總營運費用為6.424億美元，其中包括1.514億美元的收購無形資產攤銷、180萬美元的特殊費用、3800萬美元的股權激勵費用和110萬美元的其他費用。公認會計準則淨收入達到創紀錄的6.666億美元，每股盈餘達到創紀錄的1.21美元。 9月份當季非公認會計準則現金稅率為14.2%。我們 2024 財年的非 GAAP 稅率預計約為 14.2%，其中不包括過渡稅以及與前幾財年累計稅款相關的任何稅務審計結算。

Our fiscal '24 cash tax rate is expected to be higher than our fiscal '23 tax rate for a variety of factors, including lower availability of tax attributes, such as net operating losses and tax credits, lower depreciation with our expectation for lower capital expenditures in the U.S. in fiscal '24, as well as the impact of current tax rules requiring the capitalization of R&D expenses for tax purposes. We are still hopeful that the tax rules requiring companies to capitalize R&D expenses will be pushed out or repeal. If this were to happen, we would anticipate about a 200 basis point favorable adjustment to Microchip's non-GAAP tax rate in future periods. Our inventory balance at September 30, 2023, was $1.331 billion. We had 167 days of inventory at the end of the September quarter, which was flat to the prior quarter's level. Although we reduced inventory dollars in the quarter, we were not able to make as much progress as we would have liked, as we continue to accommodate requests by customers to push out delivery schedules for products that were very far through the manufacturing process.

由於多種因素，我們預計 24 財年的現金稅率將高於 23 財年的稅率，包括可獲得的稅項減少（例如淨營業虧損和稅收抵免）、折舊減少（我們預計 24 財年美國資本支出減少），以及要求將研發費用資本化以用於稅收目的的現行稅法的影響。我們仍然希望，要求公司將研發費用資本化的稅法將被推遲或廢除。如果這種情況發生，我們預計未來期間 Microchip 的非 GAAP 稅率將出現約 200 個基點的有利調整。截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日，我們的庫存餘額為 13.31 億美元。截至 9 月末，我們的庫存天數為 167 天，與上一季持平。儘管我們在本季度減少了庫存美元，但我們未能取得我們所希望的那麼大的進展，因為我們繼續滿足客戶的要求，推遲製造過程中已經很遠的產品的交貨時間表。

We also continue to invest in building inventory for long-lived, high-margin products whose manufacturing capacity is being end of life by our supply chain partners, and these last-time buys represented 10 days of inventory at the end of September. We expect dollars of inventory on our balance sheet to reduce in the December quarter. Inventory at our distributors in the September quarter was at 35 days, which was up 6 days from the prior quarter's level. Our cash flow from operating activities was $616.2 million in the September quarter. Included in our cash flow from operating activities was $87.5 million of long-term supply assurance receipts from customers. We have adjusted these items out of our free cash flow to determine the adjusted free cash flow that we will return to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, as these supply assurance payments will be refundable over time as purchase commitments are fulfilled.

我們也繼續投資建立長壽命、高利潤產品的庫存，我們的供應鏈合作夥伴正在停止這些產品的生產，而這些產品最後一次購買相當於9月底10天的庫存。我們預計12月季度資產負債表上的庫存金額將減少。 9月季度我們經銷商的庫存為35天，比上一季增加了6天。 9月季度我們來自經營活動的現金流為6.162億美元。我們的經營活動現金流包括客戶的8,750萬美元的長期供應保證收據。我們已從自由現金流中調整了這些項目，以確定我們將透過股利和股票回購返還給股東的調整後自由現金流，因為這些供應保證付款將隨著採購承諾的履行而退還。

Our adjusted free cash flow was $454.3 million in the September quarter. As of September 30, our consolidated cash and total investment position was $256.6 million. Our total debt increased by $45.6 million in the September quarter, and our net debt was up by $60.2 million. Over the last 21 full quarters since we closed the Microsemi acquisition and incurred over $8 billion in debt to do so, we have paid down $6.72 billion of the debt and continue to allocate substantially all of our excess cash beyond dividends and stock buyback to bring down this debt. In the September quarter, we issued a $750 million Term Loan A and retired $1 billion in bonds that matured on September 1, 2023, with the Term Loan A and proceeds from our line of credit. We also issued $1 billion of commercial paper during the September quarter, taking advantage of about a 90 basis point lower interest rate on the commercial paper compared to our line of credit rate.

9月季度，我們的調整後自由現金流為4.543億美元。截至9月30日，我們的合併現金及總投資部位為2.566億美元。 9月季度，我們的總債務增加了4,560萬美元，淨債務增加了6,020萬美元。自從我們完成對美高森美的收購併承擔超過80億美元的債務以來，在過去的21個完整季度中，我們已償還了67.2億美元的債務，並繼續將除股息和股票回購之外的大部分剩餘現金用於償還債務。 9月季度，我們發行了7.5億美元的A類定期貸款，並用A類定期貸款和信用額度收益償還了10億美元將於2023年9月1日到期的債券。我們也在9月季度發行了10億美元的商業票據，利用了比我們的信用額度利率低約90個基點的商業票據利率。

Our line of credit had $39 million of borrowings against it at September 30, 2023. During the September quarter, we also retired $18.2 million of total principal amount of our 2027 convertible bonds for a total cash payment of $42.7 million. The amount paid above the principal amount essentially works like a synthetic stock buyback, reducing any current and future share count dilution that could result if these convertible bonds were ever converted into shares. The $24.5 million we paid above the par value for the convertible bonds was in addition to our normal share buyback activity that we executed during the quarter, resulting in an additional reduction in the diluted share count outstanding. Our adjusted EBITDA in the September quarter was $1.152 billion and 51.1% of net sales. Our trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA was a record at $4.57 billion. Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 1.28 at September 30, 2023, down from 1.84 at September 30, 2022.

截至2023年9月30日，我們的信用額度中有3,900萬美元的借款。在9月季度，我們也償還了2027年可轉換債券的1,820萬美元本金，共支付現金4,270萬美元。超出本金的部分實質上相當於一次合成股票回購，減少了這些可轉換債券轉換為股票後可能造成的當前和未來股票數量的稀釋。我們為可轉換債券支付的超出票面價值的2450萬美元，是我們在本季度執行的正常股票回購活動的補充，這進一步減少了稀釋後的流通股數量。 9月季度，我們的調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤（EBITDA）為11.52億美元，佔淨銷售額的51.1%。我們過去12個月的調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤（EBITDA）創下了45.7億美元的紀錄。截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日，我們的淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 1.28，低於 2022 年 9 月 30 日的 1.84。

Capital expenditures were $74.4 million in the September quarter. Our expectation for capital expenditures for fiscal year 2024 is between $300 million and $325 million, which is down from the $300 million to $350 million we shared with investors last quarter, as we are delaying certain capital given the more challenging economic backdrop. We expect that our capital investments will continue to provide us with increased control over our production during periods of industry-wide constraints. Depreciation expense in the September quarter was $47 million. I will now turn it over to Ganesh to give his comments on the performance of the business in the September quarter as well as our guidance for the December quarter. Ganesh?

9月季度的資本支出為7440萬美元。我們預計2024財年的資本支出將在3億至3.25億美元之間，低於上季與投資者共享的3億至3.5億美元，原因是鑑於更具挑戰性的經濟環境，我們推遲了部分資本的投入。我們預計，在全行業受限的時期，我們的資本投資將繼續幫助我們更好地控制生產。 9月份季度的折舊支出為4700萬美元。現在，我將請Ganesh就9月季度的業務表現以及12月季度的業績指引發表意見。 Ganesh？

Thank you, Eric, and good afternoon, everyone. Our September quarter results were about as we expected, with net sales coming in just under the midpoint of our guidance and well within our guidance range. Net sales were down 1.5% sequentially and up 8.7% on a year-over-year basis. Non-GAAP gross and operating margins remained strong at 68.1% and 48.1%, respectively. Our consolidated non-GAAP diluted EPS was at the midpoint of our guidance at $1.62 per share, up 11% from the year ago quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was 51.1% of net sales, and adjusted free cash flow was 20.2% of net sales in the September quarter, continuing to demonstrate the strong cash generation characteristics of our business. Our net leverage exiting September dropped to 1.28x. We had higher cash flow outflows in the September quarter compared to the June quarter, due to the timing of tax payments and because of record capital return to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases totaling $562.6 million. This is 61% higher than the capital returned to shareholders in the June quarter.

謝謝Eric，大家下午好。我們9月季度的業績基本上符合預期，淨銷售額略低於我們預期的中點，並且完全符合我們的預期範圍。淨銷售額季減1.5%，較去年成長8.7%。非公認會計準則下的毛利率和營業利益率保持強勁，分別為68.1%和48.1%。我們的合併非公認會計準則下的稀釋每股盈餘達到我們預期的中點，為每股1.62美元，較去年同期成長11%。調整後息稅折舊攤銷前利潤（EBITDA）佔9月份季度淨銷售額的51.1%，調整後自由現金流佔9月份季度淨銷售額的20.2%，繼續展現了我們業務強勁的現金生成能力。截至9月底，我們的淨槓桿比率降至1.28倍。由於報稅時間安排，以及透過股利和股票回購等方式向股東返還的創紀錄資本總額（共5.626億美元），9月季度的現金流出量高於6月季度。這比6月季度向股東返還的資本高出61%。

Our capital return to shareholders in the December quarter will increase to 77.5% of our September quarter adjusted free cash flow. As we continue on our path, towards 100% of our adjusted free cash flow to shareholders by the March quarter calendar year 2025. My thanks to all our stakeholders, who enabled us to achieve these results despite the increasingly challenging macro environment and especially to the worldwide Microchip team, whose effort and engagement enables us to navigate effectively through the business cycles. Taking a look at our first September quarter net sales from a product line and geographic perspective. Our mixed signal Microcontroller net sales were down 1.7% sequentially and up 8.5% on a year-over-year basis.

我們12月季度股東資本報酬率將增加至9月季度調整後自由現金流的77.5%。我們將繼續努力，力爭2025年3月季度實現100%的調整後股東自由現金流。我要感謝所有利益相關者，儘管宏觀環境日益嚴峻，他們依然幫助我們取得了這些業績，尤其要感謝全球Microchip團隊，他們的努力和投入使我們能夠有效地應對商業週期。從產品線和地理角度來看，我們9月第一季的淨銷售額。我們的混合訊號微控制器淨銷售額季減1.7%，年增8.5%。

Our Analog product line, net sales were down 1.7% sequentially and up 8.8% on a year-over-year basis. On a sequential revenue basis, Asia was down, Europe was about flat and the Americas was slightly up. Now for some color on the September quarter. Our business slowed down as expected, as our customers continue to respond to the effects of increasing business uncertainty, slowing economic activity and a result in increase in inventory. The combined effects of persistent inflation and high interest rates, we believe, are contributing to the weak macro environment. All regions of the world and most end markets experienced varying degrees of weakness. We continue to receive requests to push out or cancel backlog, as customers start to rebalance their inventory in light of the weaker business conditions and increased uncertainty they were experiencing. And we were able to push out meaningful amounts of backlog to later quarters to help many customers with inventory positions. We are seeing customers continue to adjust the demand expectations as they derisk the inventory position whenever possible.

我們的類比產品線淨銷售額較上季下降1.7%，較去年同期成長8.8%。以環比收入計算，亞洲銷售額下降，歐洲基本持平，美洲銷售額略有成長。現在來看看9月季度的情況。我們的業務成長率如預期般放緩，因為我們的客戶仍在應對日益加劇的商業不確定性、經濟活動放緩以及由此導致的庫存增加。我們認為，持續的通膨和高利率的共同影響加劇了宏觀環境的疲軟。全球所有地區和大多數終端市場都經歷了不同程度的疲軟。我們不斷收到推遲或取消積壓訂單的請求，因為客戶開始根據疲軟的商業環境和日益加劇的不確定性來重新平衡庫存。我們成功地將大量積壓訂單推遲到以後的季度，以幫助許多客戶維持庫存。我們看到客戶正在不斷調整需求預期，盡可能降低庫存風險。

Our experience from prior cycles is that at this stage of the cycle, customers tend to overcorrect their inventory and backlog due to their business uncertainty, combined with the availability of product with very short lead times. This is, in effect, the flip side of what we saw during 2021 and 2022, when demand was historically strong and seemingly insatiable. Reflecting the slow macro environment, our channel inventory grew 35 days. We are working with our channel partners to find the right balance of inventory required to serve customers, as well as to be positioned for the eventual strengthening of business conditions. Most of our internal capacity expansion actions remain paused, and we expect this will result in lower capital investments in fiscal year '24 and fiscal year '25, even as we prepare for the expected robust long-term growth of our business.

我們從以往的周期經驗中得知，在周期的這個階段，由於業務不確定性，加之產品交付週期極短，客戶往往會過度調整庫存和積壓訂單。這實際上與我們在2021年和2022年所見的情況截然相反，當時的需求達到了歷史性的強勁水平，似乎永無止境。受宏觀經濟放緩的影響，我們的通路庫存增加了35天。我們正在與通路合作夥伴合作，找到服務客戶所需的最佳庫存平衡點，並為最終的業務狀況改善做好準備。我們的大部分內部產能擴張計畫仍處於暫停狀態，預計這將導致24財年和25財年的資本投資減少，儘管我們正在為預期的長期強勁業務成長做準備。

In the meanwhile, we have been driving our lead times down and have reduced average lead times from approximately 52 weeks at the start of 2023 to approximately 26 weeks at the end of June, and exited the September quarter at approximately 13 weeks. We expect to continue to drive average lead times down further, to less than 8 weeks by the end of 2023. During a period of macro weakness and business uncertainty, we believe short lead times are the best way to help customers navigate the environment successfully and improve the quality of backlog placed on us, as it enables our customers and Microchip to engage an uncertain environment with more agility and effectiveness. However, the significant reduction in lead times is also resulting in lower bookings and reduced near-term visibility.

同時，我們一直在縮短交付週期，平均交付週期已從2023年初的約52週縮短至6月底的約26週，9月季度結束時約為13週。我們預計平均交付週期將持續縮短，到2023年底將少於8週。在宏觀經濟疲軟和業務不確定的時期，我們相信縮短交付週期是幫助客戶成功應對市場環境並提高我們積壓訂單品質的最佳途徑，因為它使我們的客戶和Microchip能夠更靈活、更有效地應對不確定的環境。然而，交付週期的大幅縮短也導致訂單量下降和短期前景的不確定性。

Now let's get into the guidance for the December quarter. As our customers take further actions to adjust to a weakening macro environment and uncertain business conditions, we are continuing to support customers and channel partners with inventory positions to push out their backlog. Taking all the factors we have discussed on the call today into consideration, we expect our net sales for the December quarter to be between down 15% and down 20% sequentially. At the midpoint of our net sales guidance for the December quarter, our year-over-year decline for the quarter would be 14.3%. We expect our non-GAAP gross margin to be between 64% and 65% of sales. We expect non-GAAP operating expenses to be between 22.7% and 23.3% of sales. We expect non-GAAP operating profit to be between 40.7% and 42.3% of sales, and we expect our non-GAAP diluted earnings per share to be between $1.09 and $1.17 per share.

現在，我們來看看12月季度的業績指引。隨著我們的客戶進一步採取措施應對疲軟的宏觀環境和不確定的商業環境，我們將繼續透過庫存支援客戶和通路合作夥伴，以解決他們的積壓訂單。綜合考慮我們今天電話會議上討論的所有因素，我們預計12月季度的淨銷售額將環比下降15%至20%。以12月季淨銷售額指引的中位數計算，本季的年減幅將達14.3%。我們預期非公認會計準則下的毛利率將介於銷售額的64%至65%之間。我們預計非公認會計準則下的營運費用將介於銷售額的22.7%至23.3%之間。我們預期非公認會計準則下的營運利潤將介於銷售額的40.7%至42.3%之間，我們預期非公認會計準則下的稀釋每股盈餘將介於1.09美元至1.17美元之間。

Given the current macro weakness and resultant business uncertainty, combined with our lower bookings and reduce near-term visibility, we anticipate that our March quarter revenue is likely to decline again sequentially, although to a lesser extent than the December quarter decline. Notwithstanding any near-term macro weakness, we are confident that semiconductors remain the engine of innovation for the applications and markets we serve. Our focus on total system solutions and key market megatrends is fueling strong design win momentum that we expect will drive above-market long-term growth.

鑑於當前宏觀經濟疲軟及其帶來的業務不確定性，加之我們訂單量下降和短期前景可預見性的下降，我們預計3月季度營收可能再次環比下降，但降幅將小於12月季度。儘管近期宏觀經濟疲軟，但我們堅信半導體仍是我們所服務的應用和市場的創新引擎。我們對整體系統解決方案和關鍵市場大趨勢的關注，正推動強勁的設計贏單勢頭，我們預計這將推動長期成長超越市場。

If you review Microchip's speak to crop performance on a trailing 12-month basis, through the business cycles over the last 15-plus years, which is included in the investor presentation posted on our website, you will observe our consistent and resilient cash generation gross margin and operating margin results. We remain confident that our non-GAAP operating margins on a trailing 12-month basis should remain above 40% through the business cycles. With that, let me pass the baton to Steve to talk more about our cash return to shareholders.

如果您回顧Microchip過去12個月的業績表現，並回顧過去15年多來各個商業週期的表現（這些業績已包含在我們網站上發布的投資者簡報中），您會發現我們持續且富有韌性的現金產生能力、毛利率和營業利潤率。我們仍然有信心，我們過去12個月的非公認會計準則營業利潤率在整個商業週期中都將保持在40%以上。接下來，我將把接力棒交給史蒂夫，讓他進一步談談我們向股東提供的現金回報。

Thank you, Ganesh, and good afternoon, everyone. I would like to provide you with a further update on our cash return strategy.The Board of Directors announced an increase in the dividend of 33.8% from the year ago quarter to $0.439 per share. During the last quarter, we purchased $339.8 million of our stock in the open market. We also paid out $222.8 million in dividends. Thus, the total cash return was a record $562.6 million. This amount was 72.5% of our actual adjusted free cash flow of $776 million during the June 2023 quarter. Our net leverage at the end of September 2023 quarter was 1.28x. Ever since we achieved an investment-grade rating for our debt in November 2021 and pivoted to increasing our capital return to shareholders, we have returned $3.248 billion to shareholders in September 30, 2023, by a combination of dividends and buybacks.

謝謝Ganesh，大家下午好。我想進一步更新我們的現金回報策略。董事會宣布，股利較去年同期成長33.8%，達到每股0.439美元。上一季度，我們在公開市場回購了3.398億美元的股票。我們還派發了2.228億美元的股息。因此，總現金回報達到了創紀錄的5.626億美元。這筆金額佔2023年6月當季實際調整後自由現金流7.76億美元的72.5%。截至2023年9月底，我們的淨槓桿比率為1.28倍。自2021年11月我們的債務獲得投資等級評級並轉向提高股東資本回報以來，我們已透過股息和回購相結合的方式，在2023年9月30日向股東返還了32.48億美元。

In the current December quarter, we will use the adjusted free cash flow from the September quarter to target the amount of cash returned to shareholders. The adjusted free cash flow excludes a net $87.5 million that we collected from our customers for long-term supply assurance payments. These payments are refundable when first 2 commitments are fulfilled. The adjusted free cash flow for the September quarter was $454.3 million. We plan to return 77.5% or $352.1 million of that amount to our shareholders with the dividend expected to be approximately $237.5 million and the stock buyback expected to be approximately $114.6 million. Going forward, we plan to continue to increase free cash flow return to shareholders by 500 basis points every quarter until we reach 100% of adjusted free cash flow returned to shareholders. That will take 5 more quarters and dividends over time, we expect will represent approximately 50% of our cash returned. With that, operator, will you please poll for questions?

在目前的12月季度，我們將使用9月季度的調整後自由現金流來確定返還股東的現金數量。調整後的自由現金流不包括我們向客戶收取的8,750萬美元的長期供應保證金淨額。這些款項在前兩項承諾履行後可退還。 9月季度的調整後自由現金流為4.543億美元。我們計劃將其中的77.5%（即3.521億美元）返還給股東，預計股利約為2.375億美元，股票回購預計約1.146億美元。展望未來，我們計劃繼續每季將股東自由現金流回報率提高500個基點，直到達到100%的調整後自由現金流返還給股東。這將需要5個季度的時間，隨著時間的推移，我們預計股息將占我們返還現金的約50%。接線員，請問您是否可以進行投票提問？

(Operator Instructions) First question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）第一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I guess my first question is on the December quarter outlook. I think you gave a little bit of color by GEO, but I was hoping you could provide a little bit of context by end market, if any of the end markets stand out EBIT of the downside or the upside? And is this mostly volume that's driving the sequential decline in revenue? Or are you starting to see pricing erode a little bit as well?

我的第一個問題是關於12月季度的展望。我想您已經按地區劃分做了一些說明，但我希望您能按終端市場提供一些背景信息，看看哪個終端市場的息稅前利潤（EBIT）表現突出，是下滑還是上漲？這主要是銷量導致營收季減嗎？還是說，價格也開始下降？

Sure. So firstly, there is no pricing that is driving the changes. It's all volume. The weakness is very broad-based across the different geographies, across the different end markets, with perhaps the one end market, which continues to have reasonable resilience is aerospace and defense, as you might expect. But it's extremely broad-based at this point.

當然。首先，推動這些變化的並非定價，而是銷售量。疲軟的勢頭在不同的地區、不同的終端市場普遍存在，或許正如你所料，唯一一個仍然保持合理韌性的終端市場是航空航太和國防市場。但目前來看，這種疲軟的勢頭非常普遍。

Got it. And then as my follow-up, maybe one for Eric on gross margin and I guess, utilization rates as well. How are your factories running today, both wafer processing and packaging and test? And as you continue to adjust to evolving demand environment, how should we see that impacting gross margins beyond the December quarter? How should we think about the trough?

明白了。接下來我想問Eric關於毛利率和使用率的問題。你們的晶圓加工、封裝和測試工廠目前運作情況如何？隨著你們不斷適應不斷變化的需求環境，我們認為這會對12月季度之後的毛利率產生什麼影響？我們該如何看待低谷？

Okay. So on utilization, we have left the wafer fabs kind of reduced from where they were at the peak when they were running just full out and that has dropped modestly. We're still not in a situation where we are taking underutilization charges, and that's not anticipated in the gross margin guidance that we've provided, but they are running at lower levels and not as efficiently. On the assembly and test side, we definitely have reduced the activities in assembly and tests. We'd rather build the product through Dibang through the wafer fab and then have it ready when orders come in to be able to turn it quite quickly with short lead times to the assembly and test process. So the assembly and test is more kind of in line with where consumption is. We actually reduced finished goods last quarter, and we'll continue to be very focused on that.

好的。就利用率而言，我們已將晶圓廠的產能從高峰（滿載運轉）略微降低，目前略有下降。我們目前還沒有產能不足的情況，這在我們提供的毛利率指引中也沒有預料到，但它們的運作水準較低，效率也較低。在封裝和測試方面，我們確實減少了封裝和測試環節的活動。我們更傾向於透過迪邦晶圓廠生產產品，然後在接到訂單時做好準備，以便能夠在較短的交貨週期內快速交付到封裝和測試環節。因此，封裝和測試環節更符合消費需求。我們上個季度實際上減少了​​成品庫存，我們將繼續高度關注這一點。

And our next question comes from the line of Ambrish Srivastava with BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Ambrish Srivastava。

Ganesh, you mentioned cancellations in your prepared remarks, and I just wanted to get -- if you could provide us with a little bit more details around that. This is the first time you mentioned that. And so what percentage is it of your orders. And then for you, is just starting the year-over-year decline, which is kind of a related second part question is the typical cycle, I don't know, 5 to 7 quarters, year-over-year decline. What's your sense of how long does the year-over-year decline last, given the programs you have in place. Now if you look back, clearly, you were over shipping over the last few quarters. So color on both would be very helpful.

Ganesh，您在準備好的發言中提到了取消訂單的情況，我只是想了解一下——能否提供一些更詳細的資訊。這是您第一次提到取消訂單。取消訂單佔您訂單的百分比是多少？然後，對您來說，同比下降才剛開始，這與第二部分的問題相關，典型的周期是，我不知道，5到7個季度，同比下降。考慮到您實施的計劃，您認為年減會持續多久？現在，如果您回顧一下，很明顯，過去幾個季度您的發貨量過大。因此，提供這兩個季度的具體數據將非常有幫助。

So first of all, inside of 90 days, any orders that a customer has are cancelable. So that's our just standard tires. And then there are the longer-term noncancelable orders that we have worked, and we don't really work on cancellations there as much as rescheduling and pushing out where that backlog would be. A lot of the backlog that has been placed over the last many quarters were based on very long lead times and the conditions for the market for many of our customers have changed over that time. And so what they believe their businesses are going to do and what their businesses are doing today are a little bit different from when they place those orders. And that's where they're making adjustments to what they require. And if their run rates come down, then whatever units they have in inventory or they have placed on us are at a higher run rate than they really need. And that's what reflects some of the correction you're seeing to bring our shipments and the customer's inventory more on the line.

首先，在90天內，客戶的任何訂單都可以取消。這只是我們的標準輪胎。此外，我們也處理一些長期不可取消的訂單，我們處理這類訂單的方式與其說是取消訂單，不如說是重新安排訂單，並減少積壓訂單。過去幾季積壓的訂單大多是基於很長的交貨週期，而我們許多客戶的市場狀況也在此期間發生了變化。因此，他們對未來業務的預期和他們目前的業務狀況與他們下訂單時略有不同。這就是他們根據自身需求進行調整的地方。如果他們的開工率下降，那麼他們庫存中的單位數量或他們下單給我們的單位數量的開工率就會高於他們實際需要的數量。這反映了您所看到的一些調整，旨在提高我們的出貨量和客戶的庫存。

And then the period of year-over-year declines on a -- if you just compare it to the last few cycles?

那麼，如果將其與過去幾個週期進行比較，同比下降的時期是怎樣的呢？

Every cycle is different. I don't know about the year-over-year decline necessarily. But when you look at historically how cycles have played out. Typically, there's a 2, 3 quarter period of time over which the digestion of that inventory takes place. And upon that being completed, the consumption, which is normally ahead of the shipments catch it back up and that's how the cycle gets reborn in what we have seen.

每個週期都不一樣。我不確定同比下降的幅度是否一定。但回顧一下歷史週期，你會發現，通常有兩、三個季度的時間來消化庫存。消化完成後，通常先於出貨量的消費量就會趕上來，這就是我們所看到的周期重演的方式。

Our next question comes from the line of Gary Mobley with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的加里‧莫布利 (Gary Mobley)。

You commented in your prepared remarks that you expect a further sequential decrease in the March quarter. And I would assume that, that would come with perhaps some lower gross margin attached to it. And that puts you pretty close to that 40% op margin threshold without any OpEx adjustments. So maybe you can just speak to whether or not that lower revenue comes with lower gross margin. And as well, what sort of measures you'd be willing to take to make OpEx adjustments.

您在準備好的發言稿中提到，預計3月季度的營收將進一步季減。我推測，這或許會導致毛利率下降。這樣一來，在不進行任何營運支出調整的情況下，您的營運利潤率就非常接近40%的門檻了。所以，您能否談談營收下降是否會導致毛利率下降？以及您願意採取哪些措施來調整營運支出？

So I think in any given quarter, as revenue declines, the operating margin had a very large change in revenue. It's not -- you can't draw a line and say, it will never fall below this line. We look at our operating margins on a trailing 12-month basis. That's what we've always had in terms of the data we've presented, the truck numbers that we have put out there. And we don't know exactly what the magnitude of what might take place in March is. But we're confident that if you look at a 4-quarter rolling or trailing 12 months, we will still be at that 40% trough as where we see it going.

所以我認為，在任何一個季度，隨著收入的下降，營業利潤率都會發生很大的變化。你不能劃一條線說它永遠不會低於這條線。我們是根據過去12個月來衡量營業利益率的。就我們呈現的數據和公佈的卡車數量而言，我們一直都是這麼做的。我們不知道3月可能發生的具體幅度。但我們相信，如果你看一下4個季度的滾動數據或過去12個月的數據，我們仍然會處於我們預期的40%的低潮。

I guess I would add to that is what investors and analysts have seen from Microchip over time when we face these cycles is we are pretty nimble and we adjust our business appropriately to the environment, whether that's on the expense side or if we need to do something with utilization. And right now, we're continuing to run the factories at a pretty high level, but lower than they were before. And OpEx, we have some weathers that we can pull depending on what business environment we're going to be facing in March and beyond.

我想補充一點，投資者和分析師們在Microchip面對這些週期時，都看到了我們相當靈活，並且會根據環境適當調整業務，無論是在成本方面，還是在利用率方面。目前，我們工廠的運作水準仍然相當高，但比以前有所降低。至於營運成本，我們可以根據3月及以後面臨的商業環境來調整。

Okay. And the follow-up I want to ask about distribution inventory, which was up sequentially. I know you don't really have a sense of how quickly the think is draining or the channel is draining. But maybe if you could just give us a sense of when you could get -- see that work down a bit?

好的。接下來我想問一下分銷庫存，它環比有所增加。我知道您不太清楚庫存消耗的速度有多快，或者通路消耗的速度有多快。您能否告訴我們，什麼時候庫存可以下降一點？

So in terms of timing, some of that's going to be based on what the distributors want to take in terms of inventory. And then obviously, what the end market consumption is going to be. So it's hard to forecast.Our distributors are tasked with having the right level of inventory in place to support their customers, and we will work with them to achieve that level. And just like customers, some distributors need inventory and some distributors are over inventory that are going to work through that and it takes some time. So don't have a specific way to answer your question, but I imagine over the next couple of quarters that distribution inventory will get more rightsized to whatever the distributors think is the best place for them to be.

所以就時間安排而言，部分取決於分銷商希望佔用多少庫存。當然，最終市場消費情況也取決於此。所以很難預測。我們的經銷商的任務是保持適當的庫存水準來支援他們的客戶，我們會與他們合作，以達到這一水準。就像客戶一樣，有些分銷商需要庫存，有些分銷商庫存過剩，他們需要解決這個問題，這需要一些時間。所以我無法用具體的方法來回答你的問題，但我認為在接下來的幾個季度裡，分銷庫存將會更加合理，達到分銷商認為最適合他們的水平。

The next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的提摩西‧阿庫裡。

(inaudible) made you a little different than your peers during the upturn was the PSP and your and CNRs. And the idea was that you don't just let customers push that out and push that out. But it does sound like that's actually what's happening. So are you sort of being a little more proactive about maybe cleaning that out and forcing them to come back and place new orders? And I'm just kind of wondering about the discussions that you're having with these customers that have been under these MCRs.

（聽不清楚）在經濟復甦期間，PSP 和 CNR 讓你們與同業略有不同。你們的理念是，你們不會只是讓客戶把庫存推來推去。但這聽起來確實就是現在的情況。那麼，你們是否會更積極主動地清理庫存，迫使他們回來下新訂單？我只是有點好奇，你們與這些受 MCR 影響的客戶進行了哪些討論。

So this is not the first quarter in which we have been doing that. We have mentioned that at prior calls as well. When customers are trying to place orders further out in time, they do the best they can, and that conditions change. We will have discussions with them to see what we can do to help and what they can do to help us in terms of what future business is and any business relationship that's give and take. And of course, we have done a significant amount of push-outs to help them out.

所以這不是我們第一個季度這樣做。我們在之前的電話會議中也提到過這一點。當客戶試圖提前下單時，他們會盡力而為，但情況會改變。我們會與他們進行討論，看看我們能提供什麼幫助，以及他們能為我們提供什麼幫助，包括未來的業務以及任何互利的業務關係。當然，我們已經做了大量的延期工作來幫助他們。

Okay. And then Eric, can you give us an idea of inside of December, how much of the guidance depends on turns?

好的。那麼 Eric，您能否告訴我們，12 月的指導中，有多少內容取決於轉彎？

We do not break that out, but it's a small number.

我們沒有詳細列出這個數字，但這個數字確實很小。

Small number. Okay.

數量不多。好的。

Yes, I would say that we still have more backlog on our books in total than what would be typical for us, but lead times down.

是的，我想說的是，我們的積壓書籍總量仍然比通常水平要多，但交貨時間有所縮短。

And our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行證券的 Vivek Arya。

I had one on sales and one on gross margins. On the sales side, I think Ganesh mentioned that the March quarter could decline again. And I'm wondering if there is a conceptual way to size it? So let's say, if you assume that June and September have kind of been the peak of the cycle, you should be thinking, I don't know, 25% peak to trough that kind of smart sales down mid-single digit. Is that a reasonable way to think about -- just bigger picture, do you think 25% peak to trough is a reasonable expectation of decline in this cycle, but what does history kind of tell us?

我有兩個問題，一個是關於銷售額，一個是關於毛利率。在銷售額方面，我記得Ganesh提到過3月季度可能會再次下滑。我想知道有沒有一個概念性的方法來衡量這個數字？假設你假設6月和9月是周期的頂峰，你應該會想，我不知道，這種智能銷售的峰值到谷底的下降幅度應該在個位數的中間。這是合理的思考方式嗎？從更大的角度來看，你認為峰值到谷底的下降幅度在25%是本輪週期合理的預期嗎？但歷史經驗告訴我們什麼呢？

Like the history is all over the place. And so it's unclear for us to be able to give you -- and especially when we have low visibility into the March quarter, and we have a fair amount of turns to take in the March quarter itself. The business hasn't gone away. The customers haven't gone away. The designs haven't gone away. So we know they're all there. It's now a matter of where is the macro telling our customers what their bills should be, where is their inventory at and where they will be building to as they go into the March and June quarters for themselves. But at 17.5% in the December quarter, I think this is probably one of the larger declines historically from Microchip than the first quarter of the global financial crisis. So you can see there's a pretty big chunk that is taking place here in the December quarter.

就像歷史錯綜複雜一樣。因此，我們無法提供明確的數據——尤其是在我們對3月份季度的預測不明朗的情況下，而3月份季度本身就有很多轉折點需要應對。業務沒有消失。客戶沒有流失。設計沒有消失。所以我們知道它們都在那裡。現在的問題是，宏觀經濟如何告訴我們的客戶他們的帳單應該是多少，他們的庫存在哪裡，以及在進入3月和6月季度時他們將在哪裡生產。但12月季的降幅達到17.5%，我認為這可能是Microchip史上比全球金融危機第一季更大的降幅之一。所以你可以看到，12月季的降幅相當大。

Okay. On the gross margin side, I'm trying to get a sense of both the kind of the downside risk from here? And then whenever we get to back to kind of the revenue levels in the next cycle, will gross margins get back to prior levels? So on the downside, I think you're guiding gross margins down about 350 basis points. That's also below what we have seen in prior down cycles. Is there a way to think about what is the kind of the trough is potential level? I think, Eric, you mentioned you're still keeping utilization if I recall. So what happens if you have to start cutting them? So what's the downside risk? And then part B of that is, let's say we come back to these revenue levels sometimes, right? Over the next several quarters. Will gross margins get back to 68%? Or will it be different? Because the 68% right plus/minus was achieved during a period of very strong industry pricing and shortages.

好的。關於毛利率，我想了解現在的下行風險有哪些？然後，當我們在下一個週期回到收入水準時，毛利率會回到之前的水平嗎？所以，就下行風險而言，我認為您預期毛利率會下降約350個基點。這也低於我們在先前的下行週期中看到的水平。有沒有辦法來預測潛在的低谷水平是多少？艾瑞克，如果我沒記錯的話，您提到您仍然保持著產能利用率。那麼，如果您不得不開始削減產能利用率，會發生什麼事？下行風險是什麼？ B部分是，假設我們有時會回到這些收入水平，對吧？在接下來的幾個季度裡。毛利率會回到68%嗎？還是會有所不同？因為68%的正負值是在行業價格非常強勁和短缺的時期實現的。

Yes. So there's a lot in that question, and I wish I had a crystal ball to answer it specifically. But the bottom line is, as I said in my response before, we will adjust our operations based on the environment that we're faced with. And with needing quite a bit of turns in the March quarter at this point in time, with short lead times, which again is not unusual but not something that we faced over the last couple of years, there is some uncertainty. But we have confidence in our business longer term. And the products that we build in our factories sell for years and years and years. So sometimes the offset between taking utilization down and then building the product and taking an inventory reserve charge for a period of time, those things can somewhat offset each other.

是的。這個問題涉及很多方面，我希望我能有一個水晶球來具體回答。但歸根結底，正如我先前的回答所說，我們會根據面臨的環境調整營運。由於目前第一季需要大量週轉，而且交貨週期很短（這並非罕見，但並非我們過去幾年面臨的情況），因此存在一些不確定性。但我們對我們的長期業務充滿信心。我們在工廠生產的產品可以銷售很多年。因此，有時降低利用率、生產產品以及在一段時間內收取庫存儲備費用之間的抵消作用，這些因素可以相互抵消。

So we'll evaluate that based on what we're facing when we get into March and beyond and adjust accordingly. But we fully expect our gross margins to stay strong. Yes, they are taking a drop this quarter, but still exceptionally high gross margins. And I wouldn't expect a huge drop from where they're at. But again, that kind of depends on if the environment requires us to do something different. If there's something we aren't seeing at the moment, we'd evaluate that and share that with analysts and investors at that time. Ganesh, would you want to add anything at all of that?

因此，我們將根據3月及以後面臨的情況進行評估，並進行相應調整。但我們完全預計我們的毛利率將保持強勁。是的，本季毛利率有所下降，但仍然非常高。我預計不會大幅下滑。但同樣，這取決於環境是否要求我們採取不同的措施。如果目前我們還沒有看到什麼，我們會進行評估，並在那時與分析師和投資者分享。 Ganesh，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I would say if the revenue was back at the levels that we can a, I see no reason why our gross margin would be back to the levels that we are at.

我想說，如果收入回到我們可以達到的水平，我看不出為什麼我們的毛利率會回到目前的水平。

And our next question comes from the line of Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Tore Svanberg。

I know this is a tricky one that we talk about over shipping and undershipping. Do you have a sense for what the true consumption is of your business at this point on a quarterly or annual basis?

我知道我們討論的出貨量過剩和出貨量不足是一個棘手的問題。您是否了解目前貴公司的實際季度或年度消耗是多少？

Hard question to come up with because our customer demand has also shifted over the last 6 months or so as they are trying to figure out where is the macro going and what is their real demand. And so I don't know if there's a clear number we could give you that says, this is what is consumption. But as we go through this correction, we believe we will be shipping under consumption, but to what extent, I can't tell you.

這個問題很難回答，因為我們的客戶需求在過去六個月左右也發生了變化，他們正在努力弄清楚宏觀經濟走向以及他們的實際需求是什麼。所以我不知道我們能否提供一個明確的數字來說明消費量是多少。但隨著我們經歷這次調整，我們相信我們的出貨量將低於消費量，但具體到什麼程度，我無法透露。

That's fair. And then moving on to the operating margin and not to sort of like focus on the math here, but when you position as a trailing 12 month, I mean 1 quarter could be as low as 25%, right? So I'm just trying to understand just conceptually with your OpEx, how much variability do you have if we continue to see sequential declines in revenues?

這很合理。然後談談營業利潤率，我不太關注這裡的數學計算，但當你定位到過去12個月時，我的意思是一個季度的利潤率可能低至25%，對吧？所以我只是想從概念上理解你們的營運支出，如果我們看到收入持續連續下降，你們的營運支出會有多大的波動性？

So we have more flexibility in our OpEx compared to what we've guided the current quarter for. We are not ready to size that for the Street at this point in time. But as I said before, you guys have seen us work through cycles before. And if the cycle gives us something that's extreme to work with, we will take more measures in our business.

因此，與本季的預期相比，我們的營運支出擁有更大的靈活性。目前，我們還沒有準備好向華爾街透露具體數字。但正如我之前所說，你們已經見證了我們應對週期的演變。如果週期為我們帶來了一些極端情況，我們將在業務中採取更多措施。

That is not what we're hoping that we need to do, but we do have levers that we can pull that we've pulled historically that if we're faced with a more difficult environment than we anticipate, OpEx can come down from what you're seeing here in our guidance for the current quarter.

這不是我們希望做的，但我們確實有一些可以利用的槓桿，根據以往的經驗，如果我們面臨比預期更困難的環境，營運支出可能會從本季的指導中下降。

Our next question comes from the line of Joshua Buchalter with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Joshua Buchalter。

I wanted to follow up on the utilization comments. So you mentioned matching utilizations to the business environment. But clearly, you're seeing weakness at your end customers. I guess what are the signals that would drive you to lower utilization? Like what are the -- what would you need to see? And then can you maybe expand a little bit more on the rationale behind keeping utilization high as you're trying to work through inventory, both on books and in the channel?

我想跟進一下關於利用率的評論。您提到了將利用率與業務環境相匹配。但顯然，您看到終端客戶表現疲軟。我想問一下，哪些訊號會促使您降低使用率？例如，您需要看到哪些因素？然後，您能否進一步解釋一下，在您試圖處理帳面和通路庫存的同時，保持高利用率背後的原因是什麼？

I'll start and Ganesh or Steve can add to this. But again, our products have very, very long life cycles. If we were to cut utilization in the factories significantly, there is a large portion of the cost that you can't take out because of the very heavy fixed cost environment. And so the balance does it make sense to build the inventory, have that higher inventory, have it available to support your customers when the business environment turns positive, which it will. And that's kind of how we're managing it right now. Now you can obviously get to a point where that inventory is too high, and it doesn't make sense, and we don't think that we're in that position today, but we have let fab utilization fall from where it was, and we'll continue to monitor it on a really a weekly, monthly basis and make decisions as we go.

我先說，Ganesh 或 Steve 可以補充。不過，我們產品的生命週期非常長。如果我們大幅降低工廠的利用率，那麼由於固定成本過高，很大一部分成本是無法降低的。因此，在平衡庫存之間，建立庫存、提高庫存水平，並在商業環境好轉時（當然，商業環境也會轉好）為客戶提供支援是否合理？這就是我們目前的管理方式。現在庫存顯然會過高，這很不合理，我們認為目前還沒有達到這個程度，但我們已經讓工廠的利用率從之前的水平下降，我們將繼續每週、每月進行監控，並在過程中做出決策。

What I would add to it is ramping a fab after you take it down drastically, it takes time to get people hired, train, get the equipment and the remaining process work to be done takes time.

我想補充的是，在大規模關閉晶圓廠之後，要重新提高產能，需要花時間招募、訓練、取得設備，其餘的工序也需要時間。

So as we saw in 2021 and 2022, we put the foot on the accelerator, but it took time to get the ramps going. So I think you want to be careful as you make some of those changes. And we are making small changes to get them to where we want to be. But because we have the good fortune of products with extremely long life cycles and all of the inventory is in good shape.

正如我們在2021年和2022年看到的那樣，我們加大了油門，但需要時間才能讓一切順利。所以我認為在做出這些改變時要謹慎。我們正在進行一些小的調整，以達到我們想要的目標。但因為我們擁有非常長的產品生命週期，而且所有庫存都狀況良好，所以這對我們來說是件好事。

And in fact, all that inventory allows us to do 2 great things. One, respond quickly when the business changes. And we know when it changes, it will change faster than we expect on the upside. And second, push the capital that is required to be deployed in order to generate those products further out in time. So I think it is a good asset utilization in terms of being able to be careful with how we take capacity down.

事實上，所有這些庫存讓我們能夠做到兩件大事。第一，當業務發生變化時，我們能夠快速回應。我們知道，一旦發生變化，其上升速度會比我們預期的要快。第二，可以延後生產這些產品所需的資本投入。所以，我認為，就謹慎地削減產能而言，這是一種很好的資產利用方式。

I appreciate all the color there. And for my follow-up, I wanted to ask about pricing. I guess it's encouraging to hear pricing still hanging in, but there's a big investor concern that it will roll over. Can you, I guess, provide some anecdotes or what do you think is allowing firmer pricing in past cycles, because that's what's allowing margins to hang in, I think, better than far given the top line but also a major concern for investors.

我很感謝大家的關注。接下來我想問定價問題。聽到價格仍然堅挺，我想這令人鼓舞，但投資者非常擔心它會再次上漲。您能否提供一些軼事，或者您認為在過去的周期中，是什麼因素導致了價格的堅挺？因為我認為，正是價格堅挺才使得利潤率得以維持，考慮到營收情況，利潤率遠高於預期，但這也是投資者關注的一個主要問題。

The pricing on our product line, which are long design cycles, very sticky product lines. In past cycles, there's never been something that rolled over, nor are we thrown to trying to use price as a way to leverage any short-term demand change because it doesn't help in where we're going. So our cycles of experience with how we have handled other cycles for pricing, plus where we are and how we're navigating this cycle. We don't feel price is a place where change is expected to happen.

我們產品線的定價策略，設計週期很長，而且非常有黏性。在過去的周期中，從未出現過價格變動，我們也沒有試圖利用價格來影響短期需求變化，因為這對我們的發展方向沒有幫助。所以我們的經驗，包括我們如何處理其他定價週期，以及我們目前的處境和如何應對這個週期。我們不認為價格是一個預期會改變的領域。

Our next question comes from the line of William Stein with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 William Stein。

Great. Guys, I know you're only guiding a quarter, but you made this comment on March, I think about a sequential decline. By my math, I think typical seasonality is down at least a couple of percentage points. And just to help us sensitize our models, would you anticipate another, as you called it last time, I think, amplified or magnified seasonality in Q1? Or do you think it's possible that we're more like a normal seasonal result?

太好了。各位，我知道您只給了一個季度的業績預期，但您在三月就說過，我認為會出現環比下降。根據我的計算，我認為典型的季節性因素至少下降了幾個百分點。為了幫助我們提高模型的敏感性，您是否預計第一季會出現另一個像您上次所說的那樣，放大或加劇的季節性因素？或者您認為我們可能更接近正常的季節性結果？

Well, there's so little visibility that we can apply to any kind of intelligent answer at this point in time. We need to get further down the time to see how next quarter takes shape. And we're guiding to just one quarter -- the December quarter at this point in time. We've given you some directionally where our sense is for the March quarter, but in terms of the magnitude, there's nothing that we can provide at this point that would be helpful.

嗯，目前我們能預見的情況太少，無法給出任何明智的答案。我們需要進一步觀察，看看下個季度的情況如何。目前，我們只預測了一個季度——也就是12月季度。我們之前已經給出了一些關於3月季度的方向性預測，但就其規模而言，目前我們無法提供任何有用的信息。

Understood. I have a follow-up, if I can. I'm hoping you can size for us the amount of sales in the December quarter that you anticipate will be filled as part of the PSP program. And similarly, how much PSP backlog you have after December still on the books? It just seems to me with lead times at 13 weeks going to -- I think you said 8. It's hard to imagine customers are lining up for that still.

明白了。如果可以的話，我還有一個後續問題。我希望您能告訴我們，預計在12月季度，PSP專案將實現多少銷售額。同樣，12月之後，您還有多少PSP訂單積壓？在我看來，交貨週期為13週，預計會變成——我記得您說的是8週。很難想像客戶還會排隊等待這個時間。

So you're right. PSP had a time when it was far more important for customers to be enrolled and to be taking advantage of that priority. As cycle times come down, there are fewer PSP orders that are needed for many customers. It's not that it's gone away. It's still there in a reasonable amount, but it's typically the customers who are very long cycle in their design and very high value in their end products. Because quite honestly, there are many parts of the market that are concerned about what happens on the flip side of the cycle, whatever that is in the second half of '24, et cetera. So it's a customer choice. No customer has to use PSP unless they believe it provides them a tool. And we made adjustments to the program to give them more flexibility, have shorter amount of window of time, et cetera. And we'll continue to evolve the program. And if there's use for it, customers will take advantage of it. And if they want, if there isn't, then they won't.

所以你說得對。 PSP 曾經一度對客戶來說至關重要，他們註冊並享受這項優先服務。隨著週期縮短，許多客戶所需的 PSP 訂單也減少了。但這並不意味著它已經消失了。它仍然存在，但數量相當合理，但通常情況下，它面向的是那些設計週期很長、最終產品價值很高的客戶。因為坦白說，市場上有許多公司擔心週期另一端會發生什麼，例如 2024 年下半年會發生什麼等等。所以，這取決於客戶的選擇。除非客戶認為 PSP 能為他們提供工具，否則他們不會強制使用 PSP。我們對該計劃進行了調整，賦予他們更大的靈活性，縮短時間窗口等等。我們將繼續改進該計劃。只要有用，客戶就會利用它。如果他們想要，否則就不會。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

And our next question comes from the line of Chris Danely with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Chris Danely。

Question on the geos, I guess. So in terms of all these cancellations and pushouts in the forecast, have any geographies fared any better or worse as we're going through this correction?

我想，這是一個關於地理位置的問題。那麼，就預測中的所有這些取消和延期的情況而言，在我們進行這次調整的過程中，有哪些地區的情況有所改善或惡化？

No, because a lot of our customers can be in multiple geographies can be headquartered in the U.S., but manufacturing in a different geography. And so the intensity or the requirements for push out and help is -- has no geographic signal that would be different.

不會，因為我們很多客戶可能分佈在多個地區，總部設在美國，但製造工廠卻在不同的地區。因此，推廣和幫助的強度或要求——沒有地理訊號會有所不同。

Okay. Yes, I know you said North America was flattish in the previous quarter. I was wondering if anything was still holding up or worse. As my follow-up, so we've seen some of these internal China OEMs finally start to do their own analog or mixed signal chips. BYD doing their own BMS solution is one of them. And it seems like they don't really care about quality or cost or what have you. Can you give us a sense if you know of roughly how much of your business goes to domestic China? And do you see any risk that the non-China MCU business could kind of issues with this?

好的。是的，我知道您說上一季北美市場表現平平。我想知道是否還有什麼情況持續或惡化。接下來，我們看到一些中國本土的OEM廠商終於開始自主研發模擬或混合訊號晶片。比亞迪自主研發的BMS解決方案就是其中之一。但他們似乎並不真正關心品質、成本或其他方面。您能否大致告訴我們，貴公司在中國國內的業務佔比有多少？您是否認為中國以外的MCU業務可能會因此受到影響？

So the proportion of what goes into China for China of a broad-based product line, I would say it's probably under 5-ish percent or in that range. I don't have an exact number, so don't hold me to that. The difference is that, this is not new that we have competition in China. The business is extremely fragmented. There's hundreds thousands customers and applications that are there. And so even previously, we would have had some designs where somebody didn't care about quality or didn't care about something else and said I'm just going to use this. And that's not unusual in where it happened. So it is something we are paying attention to but not something which is creating a dramatic change in the business itself.

所以，我認為，在廣泛的產品線中，銷往中國的產品比例大概在5%左右，或是在這個範圍內。我沒有確切的數字，所以不要把我限制在這個數字上。差別在於，我們在中國面臨競爭並不是什麼新鮮事。這個行業極度分散。那裡有成千上萬的客戶和應用。所以，即使在以前，我們也遇到過一些設計，有人不關心品質或其他方面，就說「我就用這個」。這種情況並不罕見。所以，這是我們關注的問題，但不會為業務本身帶來巨大的改變。

Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Rolland with SIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Christopher Rolland。

Can you guys talk about or give us a rough idea of what percent of bookings coming into any of these quarters are being pushed out each quarter? And is that representative basically of the December sequential drop that we're getting here? As you guys mentioned, like that you really didn't have any turns business into the quarter. And I think December has traditionally been somewhat flat. And are these levels of pushouts, are they increasing progressively as we move along here?

你們能否大致談談，或者告訴我們每個季度有多少比例的預訂被推遲了？這是否代表了我們12月份的季減？正如你們所提到的，本季確實沒有任何轉機業務。我認為12月的傳統情況比較平穩。這些推遲的程度，隨著時間的推移，是否會逐漸增加？

So let me start and then Eric might want to chime in here as well. So firstly, new bookings are not the place where people are trying to push things out, because if they are new bookings within the last 3 to 6 months of time, those are with much more informed sense for demand, supply market, et cetera. A lot of the pushout requests for backlog that was placed 9, 12 or longer months where, as time has gone on, the need as they perceive this when they place the orders and the need as they see it today when they are facing the reality of what the markets have changed to, are different. So new bookings actually are in far better shape just because they are much more informed about current market conditions.

那麼，讓我先開始吧，Eric 可能也想插嘴一下。首先，新訂單不是人們試圖推遲訂單的地方，因為如果是過去 3 到 6 個月內的新訂單，他們對需求、供應市場等有著更深入的了解。很多延遲訂單的訂單是 9 個月、12 個月或更長時間的，隨著時間的推移，他們下訂單時感知到的需求和他們今天面對市場變化的現實時所看到的需求是不同的。因此，新訂單的狀況實際上要好得多，因為他們對當前的市場狀況有了更深入的了解。

Right. Well, I guess what I would add to that is those new bookings have been pretty modest that have been coming in, right? So bookings have been lower. We don't break out a book-to-bill, but bookings have been low. And the bottom line is, I think it's very difficult for customers to know what they need, particularly with those orders as Ganesh was saying they were placed 9 or 12 months ago. But we have had certain instances where customers have actually asked for a pushout, and then the next month, they're coming back to us and asking for us to pull it in. So I think it's just a very uncertain environment at the customer level, and obviously, that causes some churn on our backlog and the request that we get for push out activity.

對。我想補充的是，最近收到的新訂單量相當少，對吧？所以訂單量一直在下降。我們沒有公佈訂單出貨比，但訂單量一直很低。歸根究底，我認為客戶很難知道自己需要什麼，尤其是像Ganesh說的9個月或12個月前下的訂單。但我們遇到過一些情況，客戶實際上要求延期交貨，但下個月他們又回來要求我們延期交貨。所以我認為客戶層面的環境非常不確定，這顯然會導致我們積壓訂單和延期交貨請求的流失。

And they have a benefit today of knowing that supply is readily available, that lead times are short, and they are taking advantage of that, which would make sense.

如今，他們的優勢在於知道供應隨時可用，交貨時間很短，他們正在利用這一點，這是有道理的。

Yes, I think that's a great tie-in maybe to my next question. I guess with hindsight, how do you guys evaluate instituting that 12-month PSP was that a good thing, a bad thing? Would you do it again? And if so, were there any changes you would make?

是的，我覺得這或許跟我的下一個問題很契合。事後看來，你們如何評估設立12個月的私人退休金計畫（PSP）是好事還是壞事？你們還會再做嗎？如果會，你們會做出哪些改變？

It's a question we ask ourself all the time. But I think you also have to look at not 12 months as a stand-alone piece of information, right? It is what were the lead times. So even if -- when lead times are 52 weeks, you really can't offer somebody something inside of that because there isn't -- all the capacity within that window is already consumed. So like all programs, they have to be designed with a sense of the information at a given point in time, and they have to evolve as that information changes. And so even on PSP, right, it used to be 12 months. Today, 6 months. We made that change several months ago. The flexibilities, et cetera, around or have changed.

這是我們一直在問自己的問題。但我認為你也不應該把12個月看成一個獨立的訊息，對吧？而應該考慮的是交付週期。即使交付週期是52週，你也無法在這段時間內提供產品，因為這段時間內的所有產能都已經被消耗殆盡了。所以，像所有項目一樣，它們的設計必須考慮到特定時間點的信息，並且必須隨著信息的變化而不斷改進。即使是PSP，以前也是12個月，現在變成了6個月。我們幾個月前就做出了這個改變。靈活性等等，或者說，已經改變了。

And each program is designed to create a customer solution. And that solution has to be sensitive to what problem we're trying to solve at a given point in time. PSP was a fantastic program for '21 and '22 and parts of '23 when there was very long lead times, then the customers who participated got the most benefit from there. Today, it has less value when cycle -- when lead times come down dramatically and for other than a small set of customers, it is not as important to provide that much visibility.

每個專案都旨在創建客戶解決方案。而該解決方案必須能夠敏感地識別我們在特定時間點試圖解決的問題。 PSP 在 2021 年、2022 年以及 2023 年的部分時間裡是一個非常棒的項目，當時交付週期很長，參與其中的客戶從中獲益最多。如今，當交付週期大幅縮短時，PSP 的價值就降低了，而且對於少數客戶以外的客戶來說，提供如此高的可見度並不那麼重要。

Yes. And I've said this to investors time and time again that if we had not had PSP, I am confident that our backlog would have been higher, but we wouldn't have known what was good backlog and what was bad backlog, and we would have made the wrong decisions in terms of foundry orders that we made, capital equipment that we are putting in place. And so the PSP program was designed in a way where we were trying to service customers in a very long lead time environment where we were capacity constrained, and give the customer an option to do that, but then have skin in the game also where just not all that risk sell on Microchip. So there's a lot of good things that came with PSP. Obviously, when the cycle changes, customers can feel differently about the backlog that they place than they did when they placed the order, but there were a lot of happy customers that we serve us well because of the program.

是的。我反覆跟投資人說過，如果沒有PSP，我相信我們的積壓訂單會更高，但我們不會知道哪些積壓訂單是好的，哪些是壞的，而且我們會在代工訂單和正在部署的資本設備方面做出錯誤的決定。所以，PSP計畫的設計初衷是，在產能受限、交貨週期很長的環境下，我們試圖為客戶提供服務，並為客戶提供選擇，但同時也要承擔風險，畢竟Microchip的銷售風險並非全部。所以，PSP帶來了很多好處。當然，當週期發生變化時，客戶對積壓訂單的感受可能會與他們下單時有所不同，但許多客戶對這項計劃提供的優質服務感到滿意。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Caso with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Chris Caso。

The question is on the cash return program and the buybacks and understand that the program is really meant to be formulaic. But the question is, is there any flexibility within that program to be more opportunistic at times like these? And obviously, you guys are still generating a good amount of cash, but taking advantage when the downturn in the stock is down, have you contemplated that?

問題在於現金回饋計畫和股票回購，要知道這些計畫其實都是公式化的。但問題是，在這種時候，這些計劃是否具有彈性，以便更具機會性？顯然，你們仍然在創造大量現金，但你們有沒有考慮過在股價下跌時利用這些機會？

Let me get it kicked off, and I think Steve might want to weigh in here as well. So the program is something that the Board looks at on a constant basis. And there is nothing that would prevent us from doing something which is opportunistic for the right reasons, if the Board believes that's the right action for us. Steve, do you want to add to that?

讓我先開始吧，我想史蒂夫可能也想發表一下意見。所以，董事會會持續關注這個計畫。如果董事會認為我們做對了，出於正當理由，我們可以採取一些機會主義的行動。史蒂夫，你想補充嗎？

So while the main body of the program is formulaic, where we are increasing the cash return to shareholders by 500 basis points every quarter and increasing our dividend by about 7% or so every quarter, and the remaining amount becomes the stock buyback, the program doesn't prohibit us from taking advantage of the environment where start gets into a severe downdraft for any reason. We can certainly have the cash resources on our credit line and all that to the forward buy the stock from the following quarter and then buy less than the following quarter. So we didn't stop us from doing that. We have not done that so far. I think stocks has been kind of reasonably constant in the range of between $70 and $90, but if there was to be a substantial opportunity at a lower stock price, which was to emerge for any reason, then Microchip has the flexibility to do anything we wanted to do.

因此，雖然該計劃的主體是公式化的，即我們每季將股東現金回報提高 500 個基點，每季將股息提高約 7%，剩餘金額用於股票回購，但該計劃並不禁止我們利用公司因任何原因陷入嚴重下滑的環境。我們當然可以利用信用額度上的現金資源以及所有這些資源，從下個季度開始買入股票，然後再買入少於下個季度的股票。所以我們並沒有阻止我們這樣做。到目前為止，我們還沒有這樣做。我認為股價一直在 70 美元到 90 美元之間保持相對穩定，但如果股價因任何原因出現大幅下跌，那麼 Microchip 可以靈活地採取任何我們想採取的行動。

And of course, we have the headroom and what's the approved buyback. There's over $2 billion of headroom available there, and we have the headroom in our line of credit.

當然，我們還有回購空間，核准的回購金額是多少？目前有超過20億美元的可用回購空間，我們的信用額度也有足夠的空間。

Got it. That's helpful. As a follow-up, I just want to return to gross margin and the utilization. And I guess asking perhaps some of the questions that have been answered in a different way. Is there a particular level of inventory that would make you uncomfortable that would cause you to reduce the utilization? And I guess part of this depends upon somewhat the duration of the downturn, how long the downturn should last?

明白了。這很有幫助。接下來，我想回到毛利率和利用率的問題。我想問一些已經用不同方式回答過的問題。是否存在一個特定的庫存水準會讓你感到不安，從而導致你降低利用率？我想這在某種程度上取決於經濟低迷的持續時間，也就是低迷會持續多久？

I think that's a key point to look at there because if you're looking at your inventory on a backward-looking basis or current quarter type basis and what that drives, but you have confidence that 2 quarters, 3 quarters, 4 quarters, 6 quarters, whatever out in time that the business is going to go back and exceed prior highs, you're going to take a different action than if you think the business is in decline mode or in stagnant mode. So those are all the things that we need to evaluate when determining how we're going to run our factories and what's the right position for the inventory. And we've got our position today. And as I've said, we'll continue to evaluate that based on the environment that we see in front of us.

我認為這是一個關鍵點，因為如果你回顧性地或以當前季度為基礎來審視庫存及其驅動因素，但你又相信在未來2個季度、3個季度、4個季度、6個季度，無論何時，業務都會回升並超過之前的高點，那麼你採取的行動與你認為業務處於衰退或停滯狀態時採取的行動不同。因此，在確定如何運作工廠以及庫存的合理配置時，這些都是我們需要評估的因素。我們目前已經確定了庫存的配置。正如我所說，我們將繼續根據眼前的環境進行評估。

And our next question comes from the line of Vijay Rakesh with Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞穗的 Vijay Rakesh。

I was just wondering, is there like a target inventory level that you want to maintain? Or on the flip side of that is at what point do you start to talk to back utilization this?

我只是想知道，您是否希望維持一個目標庫存水準？或者反過來說，您從什麼時候開始討論恢復利用率？

So our target levels that we said at our Analyst and Investor Day back in November of 2021 was 130 to 150 days. We are obviously above those levels today, and there's reasons for that. And I think some of your question I responded to in response to the prepared question. So we're not uncomfortable with where the inventory is today, we're going to watch it closely depending on the environment, and then it's going to be what the outlook is in terms of are we comfortable continuing to run the fabs at the levels that they're running at today or if we need to do something different. Not at that point today where we're going to do something different. Yes, inventory is above our target levels, but I think we're managing it appropriately, and we'll continue to do so.

我們在2021年11月的分析師和投資者日上提出的目標水準是130到150天。我們今天顯然已經超過了這個水平，這是有原因的。我想我在回答你的一些問題時已經回答了準備好的問題。我們對目前的庫存狀況並不感到不安，我們會根據環境密切關注，然後才是前景如何，我們是否願意繼續以目前的水平運營晶圓廠，或者我們是否需要採取不同的措施。目前還不至於到時候我們就會採取不同的措施。是的，庫存確實高於我們的目標水平，但我認為我們正在妥善管理庫存，我們將繼續這樣做。

I would add that in steady state is where the 130 to 150 is where we want to be. If you look back at the last cycle, I think we were down like 108, 109 days and -- that was what it was in the place where demand was so high was depleting our inventory. Today, we're at 167, 10 days of that are really last time buys. So you take that out, we're around 157. So we're not dramatically outside of the steady-state range that we would need to be.

我想補充一點，穩定狀態下，130到150天的庫存才是我們想要的。回顧上一個週期，我認為我們下降了大概108到109天——當時需求旺盛，導致庫存耗盡。現在，我們的庫存是167天，其中10天是最後一次購買。所以，扣除這10天，我們的庫存大約是157天。所以，我們並沒有大幅超出我們所需要的穩定狀態範圍。

Got it. No, the reason I ask is because the revenues might step down, the DOI might spike -- Got it. And then as you look at the market conditions, can you talk to where the inventory levels are trending? And does that prompt -- are you seeing any pushback on pricing in the supply chain as supply comes on or has demand conditions soften a bit, if you can give some color on that?

明白了。不，我問這個問題是因為收入可能會下降，而DOI可能會飆升——明白了。然後，您觀察市場狀況，能否談談庫存水準的趨勢？這是否會促使您——隨著供應增加或需求狀況略有減弱，您是否看到供應鏈中定價方面出現任何阻力，能否具體說明一下？

So firstly, we don't -- at our distributors, we have view into the inventory we have. At our customers, we use their requests for pushouts and all that as a proxy for understanding it. But customers have many business units, many product lines, and they could be and certain product lines wanting to push out and other ones, they want to pull in. So it's all over the place. And there was a second part of your question.

首先，我們無法—對於我們的經銷商，我們無法查看庫存狀況。對於我們的客戶，我們會根據他們的推出請求等來了解庫存狀況。但客戶有很多業務部門、很多產品線，他們可能希望某些產品線推出，而其他產品線則希望引進。所以庫存情況很複雜。這就是你問題的第二部分。

Pricing. Wasn't quite sure if that was a customer pricing or a supplier pricing? Is it supply chain pricing or are customer pricing that you're asking about?

定價。我不太確定這是客戶定價還是供應商定價？您問的是供應鏈定價還是客戶定價？

Your customer pricing in terms of -- as the market conditions change, as the supply improves, if inventory levels go up, is that now becoming a part of the discussion?

您的客戶定價是否隨著市場條件的變化、供應的改善、庫存水準的上升而成為討論的一部分？

All the purchasing managers are going to ask for a lower price in an environment that is softer. But these are products where the price elasticity isn't there where somehow if we put a lower price, we get more different this quarter or next quarter, et cetera. These are long design cycles. Prices have stepped 18, 24 or 36 (inaudible) was at the point of designing, and we will be competitive at the point where we do the design business. Business itself in the short term is not affected by the pricing.

在較為疲軟的市場環境下，所有採購經理都會要求降價。但這些產品的價格彈性並不大，如果我們降價，本季或下季的差異就會更大，等等。這些產品的設計週期很長。在設計階段，價格已經上漲了18倍、24倍或36倍（聽不清楚），而我們在進行設計業務時就能保持競爭力。短期內，業務本身不會受到定價的影響。

Our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Maybe another one on just the inventories. Last quarter, you talked about the lower-than-expected sell-through in China, which was largely responsible for the rising channel inventories in June? Or do I think days increased, I think it was 5 days back in June, days increased another 6 days here in the September quarter. Was this primarily continued sell-through weakness in China? Or was the pickup more pronounced in other geographies?

也許再問一個關於庫存的問題。上個季度，您提到了中國市場的銷售量低於預期，這在很大程度上導致了6月份的通路庫存上升？或者我認為銷售天數增加了，6月份增加了5天，而9月份季度又增加了6天。這主要是因為中國市場的銷售量持續疲軟嗎？還是其他地區的銷售量回升更為明顯？

I'd say that the sell-through was not strong in any geography. So we did not see any significant improvement in distribution sell-through So...

我想說的是，任何地區的銷售情況都不太好。所以我們沒有看到分銷銷售情況有任何顯著改善。所以…

And China has continued to be weak. We have not seen the level of improvement we expected out of China, and there's plenty of news information about what's happening from an economy standpoint here.

中國經濟持續疲軟。我們尚未看到中國經濟出現預期的改善，而且關於中國經濟狀況的新聞報導也相當豐富。

Ganesh, you talked about the relative strength in aerospace and defense. You've -- your data center and compute franchise, I think probably now it's about 20% of your business. Mix demand trends here as well, but you guys are exposed to some of the stronger areas like accelerated compute? How is this end market trending for the team?

Ganesh，您談到了航空航太和國防領域的相對優勢。你們的資料中心和計算業務，我認為現在大概佔你們業務的20%左右。這方面的需求趨勢也比較複雜，但你們接觸到了一些比較強的領域，例如加速運算？這個終端市場對團隊來說趨勢如何？

So I think on data center, I think the last breakout there was about 17% or so in that range. But there are many subsegments that go into it. We clearly have a tailwind on anything and everything that goes into the artificial intelligence and the generative AI space, et cetera. But in terms of the volume that, that drives and the dollars that it drives, while it is meaningful, it's not big enough to offset some of the other weakness we have in other parts of data set.

所以我認為在資料中心方面，上次的突破大約是17%左右。但還有很多細分領域。我們顯然在人工智慧、生成式人工智慧等領域的所有領域都處於順風順水的狀態。但就其帶來的規模和資金而言，雖然這很有意義，但還不足以抵消我們在其他資料集領域的一些弱點。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

Ganesh, you talked about every cycle being different in this cycle in the upturn, it seemed like the shortages were more severe. You did see prices go up more on a like-for-like basis and your margins got higher than we've seen before. So I guess as you think about the downturn, is that going to reverse? Or do you have a situation where there's more awareness of the supply chain people want to hold more inventory because of the intensity of the shortages? Can you just tell us like how the strength in the last couple of years might portend for the next couple of quarters?

Ganesh，您說過每個週期都不一樣，但在這個經濟復甦週期中，似乎短缺更加嚴重。您確實看到價格較去年同期上漲幅度更大，利潤率也比以往更高。所以，我想，您想想經濟衰退時期，這種情況會逆轉嗎？還是說，由於短缺嚴重，人們對供應鏈的意識增強，想要持有更多庫存？您能否談談過去幾年的強勁表現對未來幾季有何預示？

I think different customers have different levels of strategic versus tactical thinking. Last night, I have been with the CEO of one of our largest customers and extremely thoughtful about not just the next one quarter, but about the next 3, 4 years of time and how they want to plan for it. I've also had similar discussions with people who were for 2 or 3 years suffering for with lack of product and all of a sudden they've forgotten about all the things that they need to be able to do. So it's all over the place, and it really depends on what the pressure they're under.

我認為不同的客戶在戰略和戰術思維層面上存在差異。昨晚，我和我們最大的客戶之一的CEO進行了深入的探討，不僅考慮了下一個季度，還考慮了未來3、4年的發展方向以及他們計劃如何規劃。我也和一些客戶進行過類似的討論，他們之前兩三年一直飽受產品匱乏的困擾，突然之間就忘了所有需要做的事情。所以，情況很複雜，這實際上取決於他們承受的壓力。

But for the most part, what we see is our customers or our customers' customers in many cases, who are people who build many of the high-value systems are much more thoughtful about how a small piece of the bill of material is not where they need to be able to make a saving, while they have substantial value that they're trying to create at the overall system. So there's no single answer because we serve 100,000 customers. It's all over the place. But without a doubt, short lead times are giving them more flexibility in terms of what are they trying to place on us and how much time do they need to give us in many cases.

但在大多數情況下，我們看到的是，我們的客戶，或者在很多情況下，我們客戶的客戶，那些構建了許多高價值系統的人，會更加仔細地考慮物料清單中的一小部分是否適合他們節省成本，而他們卻試圖在整個系統中創造巨大的價值。所以，這個問題沒有唯一的答案，因為我們服務10萬個客戶。答案五花八門。但毫無疑問，在許多情況下，較短的交付週期讓他們在決定交付什麼以及需要給我們多少時間方面擁有更大的靈活性。

And our next question will come again from the line of Ambrish Srivastava with BMO.

我們的下一個問題再次來自 BMO 的 Ambrish Srivastava。

I had a quick one for you, Eric. What's the target days of inventory for distributors?

艾瑞克，我有個快速的問題想問你。經銷商的目標庫存天數是多少？

So we don't really have a target. It's been all over the place historically. It's been as low as 17 days, and it's been as high as, I think, is 47 in our history and probably as high as 41 over the last maybe 10, 12 years. So it's a broad range. And ultimately, it's the distributor's decision on the product that they purchase and how they support their customers. And obviously, they need a certain amount of inventory to effectively serve their customer base. And if they don't hold that inventory, the end customer will find another channel buy that product through. So we don't drive it to a certain number of days. I would not be surprised in the current environment that distributors with interest rates where they are, if they try to take their inventory down to some degree. But where that goes to, it's very hard for us to predict.

所以我們沒有設定一個具體的目標。歷史上，庫存週轉天數一直變化很大。最低是17天，最高是47天，過去10到12年裡可能最高是41天。所以這個範圍很廣。最終，這取決於分銷商對其採購的產品以及如何支援客戶的決定。顯然，他們需要一定量的庫存才能有效地服務客戶群。如果他們沒有這些庫存，最終客戶就會透過其他管道購買該產品。所以我們不會把庫存週轉天數限定在某個特定的天數。在目前的環境下，如果分銷商在目前的利率水平下試圖將庫存減少到一定程度，我不會感到驚訝。但最終庫存會減少到什麼程度，我們很難預測。

If I can add to the distributor business over time has also changed. They do the warehousing services for many OEMs, where they actually carry in pipeline inventory for them. So they have programs that are not the traditional distribution where they are carrying the product and the turns rate is not the same when they are pipelining for very large OEMs. So inventory, as Eric said, something that each distributor has a model for what they're trying to accomplish and what they want and what they need is where they end up at.

我可以補充一下，隨著時間的推移，分銷商的業務也發生了變化。他們為許多原始設備製造商提供倉儲服務，實際上就是為他們提供庫存管理服務。所以，他們的專案與傳統的分銷不同，傳統的分銷方式是直接運輸產品，而且他們為大型原始設備製造商提供庫存管理服務時的周轉率也不同。所以，正如Eric所說，每個經銷商都有一個模型，來決定他們想要實現的目標、他們的需求和最終的最終結果。

And your business has changed a lot also over the years, you have airspace. It depends what you don't have several years ago. So that's why I was asking. And I think you gave a helpful answer a little bit on the target of inventory days, Ganesh, that depend is also you're carrying at the end of life. So you're not that far out of the range on where you are versus your target shared at the Analyst Day.

這些年來，您的業務也發生了很大變化，您擁有領空。這取決於您幾年前缺乏什麼。這就是我問這個問題的原因。 Ganesh，我認為您對庫存天數目標的回答很有幫助，這取決於您在產品生命週期結束時的持有量。所以，您目前的庫存水準與分析師日分享的目標值相比，並沒有超出太多。

Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the call back to management for closing remarks.

女士們，先生們，現在沒有其他問題了。我想把發言權交還給管理階層，請他們做最後發言。

Okay. I want to thank everybody for participating in the call today. And we do have many events that we will be at during the course of this quarter, and we look forward to talking to you more at those events. Thank you.

好的。感謝大家今天參加電話會議。本季我們也會參加許多活動，期待在這些活動中與大家有更多交流。謝謝大家。

This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的會議到此結束。各位現在可以斷開線路了。