微晶片科技 (MCHP) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's second quarter fiscal year 2023 financial results conference call. Today's call is being recorded. And now at this time I'd like to turn the call over to Eric.

大家好，歡迎參加今天的 2023 財年第二季度財務業績電話會議。今天的電話正在錄音。現在，我想把電話轉給 Eric。

Thank you and good afternoon, everybody. Thank you for bearing with us. We had some conference call dial-in challenges that we've worked through now, so appreciate your patience with that.

謝謝大家，大家下午好。感謝您對我們的包容。我們現在已經解決了一些電話會議撥入挑戰，因此感謝您的耐心等待。

During the course of this conference call, we will be making projections and other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company. We wish to caution you that such statements are predictions and that actual events or results may differ materially.

在本次電話會議期間，我們將對未來事件或公司未來財務業績做出預測和其他前瞻性陳述。我們希望提醒您，此類陳述是預測，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

We refer you to our press releases of today as well as our recent filings with the SEC that identify important risk factors that may impact Microchip's business and results of operations.

我們向您推薦我們今天的新聞稿以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件，這些文件確定了可能影響 Microchip 業務和運營結果的重要風險因素。

In attendance with me today are Ganesh Moorthy, Microchip's President and CEO; Steve Sanghi, Microchip's Executive Chair; and Sajid Daudi, Microchip's Head of Investor Relations. I will comment on our second quarter financial performance, Ganesh will then provide commentary on our results and discuss the current business environment as well as our guidance, and Steve will provide an update on our cash return strategy.

今天與我一同出席的有 Microchip 總裁兼首席執行官 Ganesh Moorthy； Microchip 執行主席 Steve Sanghi；以及 Microchip 投資者關係主管 Sajid Daudi。我將評論我們第二季度的財務業績，然後 Ganesh 將對我們的業績發表評論並討論當前的商業環境以及我們的指導，史蒂夫將提供我們現金回報策略的最新信息。

We will then be available to respond to specific investor and analyst questions. We are including information in our press release and on this conference call on various GAAP and non-GAAP measures. We have posted a full GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation on the Investor Relations page of our website at www.microchip.com and included reconciliation information in our press release, which we believe you will find useful when comparing our GAAP and non-GAAP results. We have also posted a summary of our outstanding debt and our leverage metrics on our website.

然後，我們將可以回答特定的投資者和分析師的問題。我們將在我們的新聞稿和本次電話會議中包含有關各種 GAAP 和非 GAAP 措施的信息。我們已在我們網站 www.microchip.com 的投資者關係頁面上發布了完整的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 對賬，並在我們的新聞稿中包含了對賬信息，我們相信您在比較我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果時會發現這些信息很有用.我們還在我們的網站上發布了未償債務和槓桿指標的摘要。

I will now go through some of the operating results, including net sales, gross margin and operating expenses. Other than net sales, I will be referring to these results on a non-GAAP basis, which is based on expenses prior to the effects of our acquisition activities, share-based compensation and certain other adjustments as described in our press release.

我現在將介紹一些經營業績，包括淨銷售額、毛利率和經營費用。除淨銷售額外，我將在非公認會計原則的基礎上提及這些結果，這是基於我們的收購活動、基於股份的薪酬和我們新聞稿中描述的某些其他調整的影響之前的費用。

Net sales in the September quarter were $2.073 billion, which was up 5.6% sequentially. We have posted a summary of our GAAP net sales by product line and geography on our website for your reference. On a non-GAAP basis, gross margins were a record at 67.7%. Operating expenses were at 20.9%. And operating income was a record 46.9%.

9 月份季度的淨銷售額為 20.73 億美元，環比增長 5.6%。我們已在我們的網站上發布了按產品線和地理劃分的 GAAP 淨銷售額摘要，供您參考。按非公認會計原則計算，毛利率達到創紀錄的 67.7%。營業費用為20.9%。營業收入達到創紀錄的 46.9%。

Non-GAAP net income was a record $814.4 million. Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share was a record $1.46 and at the high end of our guidance range.

非美國通用會計準則淨收入達到創紀錄的 8.144 億美元。非公認會計準則每股攤薄收益達到創紀錄的 1.46 美元，處於我們指導範圍的高端。

On a GAAP basis in the September quarter, gross margins were a record at 67.4%. Total operating expenses were $642.8 million and included acquisition intangible amortization of $167.5 million, special charges of $4.3 million, $3.2 million of acquisition-related and other costs and share-based compensation of $34.8 million.

按 GAAP 計算，9 月季度的毛利率達到創紀錄的 67.4%。總運營費用為 6.428 億美元，其中包括 1.675 億美元的收購無形攤銷、430 萬美元的特殊費用、320 萬美元的收購相關成本和其他成本以及 3480 萬美元的股權補償。

GAAP net income was a record $546.2 million resulting in a record $0.98 in earnings per diluted share and was adversely impacted by a $2.1 million loss on debt settlement associated with our convertible debt refinancing activities.

GAAP 淨收入為創紀錄的 5.462 億美元，導致每股攤薄收益創紀錄的 0.98 美元，並受到與我們的可轉換債務再融資活動相關的債務清償損失 210 萬美元的不利影響。

Our September quarter GAAP tax expense was impacted by a variety of factors, notably the tax expense recorded as a result of the capitalization of R&D expenses for tax purposes.

我們 9 月份季度的 GAAP 稅費受到多種因素的影響，特別是由於為稅收目的而將研發費用資本化而記錄的稅費。

Our non-GAAP cash tax rate was 11.2% in the September quarter. We now expect our non-GAAP cash tax rate for fiscal '23 to be between 9.8% and 10.8%, exclusive of the transition tax, any potential tax associated with restructuring the Microsemi operations into the Microchip global structure and any tax audit settlements related to taxes accrued in prior fiscal years. This is modestly higher than our previous forecast as we have refined our tax calculations for the year.

我們在 9 月季度的非 GAAP 現金稅率為 11.2%。我們現在預計 23 財年的非公認會計原則現金稅率將在 9.8% 和 10.8% 之間，不包括過渡稅、與將 Microsemi 業務重組為 Microchip 全球結構相關的任何潛在稅收以及與以前會計年度應計的稅款。這略高於我們之前的預測，因為我們已經完善了今年的稅收計算。

A reminder of what we communicated last quarter. Our fiscal '23 cash tax rate is higher than our fiscal '22 tax rate for a variety of factors, including lower availability of tax attributes such as net operating losses and tax credits, as well as the impact of current tax rules requiring the capitalization of R&D expenses for tax purposes. There appears to be some momentum for the tax rules requiring companies to capitalize R&D expenses to be pushed out or repealed. If this were to happen, we would anticipate about a 300 basis point favorable adjustment to Microchip's tax rate in fiscal year 2023.

提醒我們上個季度的溝通內容。由於多種因素，我們的 23 財年現金稅率高於我們的 22 財年稅率，包括稅收屬性的可用性較低，例如淨經營虧損和稅收抵免，以及當前稅收規則要求資本化的影響用於稅收目的的研發費用。要求公司將研發費用資本化的稅收規則似乎有一些推動或廢除的勢頭。如果發生這種情況，我們預計 2023 財年 Microchip 的稅率將有利調整約 300 個基點。

Our inventory balance at September 30, 2022, was $1.03 billion. We had 139 days of inventory at the end of the September quarter, which was up 12 days from the prior quarter's level. We have increased our raw materials inventory to protect our internal manufacturing supply lines. We are carrying higher work in progress to maximize the utilization of constrained equipment as well as to position ourselves to take advantage of new equipment installations, which will relieve bottlenecks.

我們在 2022 年 9 月 30 日的庫存餘額為 10.3 億美元。在 9 月季度末，我們有 139 天的庫存，比上一季度的水平增加了 12 天。我們增加了原材料庫存，以保護我們的內部製造供應線。我們正在進行更高的工作，以最大限度地利用受限設備，並定位自己以利用新設備安裝，這將緩解瓶頸。

We are investing and building inventory for long-life, high-margin products whose manufacturing capacity is being end-of-lifed by our supply chain partners. We need to ensure that our supply lines can feed growth beyond what we expect in the December 2022 and March 2023 quarters, and our reported days of inventory is a backward-looking indicator. As gross margins rise, the effective days of inventory for the same physical inventory rises, and with every 100 basis points of gross margin growth, it creates approximately 3 incremental days of inventory.

我們正在為長壽命、高利潤的產品投資和建立庫存，這些產品的製造能力正在被我們的供應鏈合作夥伴終止。我們需要確保我們的供應線能夠滿足我們在 2022 年 12 月和 2023 年 3 月季度的預期增長，並且我們報告的庫存天數是一個向後看的指標。隨著毛利率的上升，相同實物庫存的有效庫存天數也會增加，毛利率每增長 100 個基點，就會產生大約 3 個增量的庫存天數。

Inventory days at our distributors in the September quarter was at 19 days, which was flat to the prior quarter's level. With distribution inventory still being low, we will be carrying higher inventory at Microchip to ensure our customers can be served.

9 月季度我們分銷商的庫存天數為 19 天，與上一季度持平。由於分銷庫存仍然很低，我們將在 Microchip 增加庫存，以確保我們的客戶能夠得到服務。

In the September quarter, we repurchased $36.9 million of principal value of our 2025 and 2027 convertible subordinated notes for cash, and we also paid cash for the value of these bonds above the principal amount, which was an additional $60 million. We used cash generation during the quarter to fund the amount of the convertible debt repurchases, and we believe that these transactions will benefit stockholders by reducing share count dilution to the extent our stock price appreciates over time.

在 9 月季度，我們以現金回購了 3690 萬美元本金價值的 2025 年和 2027 年可轉換次級票據，我們還為這些債券價值超過本金金額支付了現金，即額外的 6000 萬美元。我們在本季度使用現金產生來為可轉換債務回購的金額提供資金，我們相信這些交易將通過減少股票數量稀釋來使股東受益，因為我們的股價會隨著時間的推移而升值。

The principal amount of convertible debt on our balance sheet at September 30 was $766.6 million. This includes $665.5 million of convertible bonds maturing in November of 2024 with the cap call option in place that offsets any potential dilution from these convertibles up to stock prices of $116.15. At the beginning of calendar year 2020, Microchip had $4.481 billion of convertible bonds outstanding. So today, our overall capital structure is in a much better long-term position.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們資產負債表上的可轉換債務本金為 7.666 億美元。這包括 6.655 億美元的 2024 年 11 月到期的可轉換債券，其中有上限看漲期權，以抵消這些可轉換債券的任何潛在稀釋，最高股價為 116.15 美元。 2020 年初，Microchip 有 44.81 億美元的未償可轉換債券。所以今天，我們的整體資本結構長期處於更好的位置。

Our cash flow from operating activities was $793.2 million in the September quarter. Our free cash flow was $682.9 million and 32.9% of net sales. As of September 30, our consolidated cash and total investment position was $306.8 million. We paid down $264.9 million of total debt in the September quarter, and our net debt was reduced by $192.6 million. Over the last 17 full quarters since we closed the Microsemi acquisition and incurred over $8 billion in debt to do so, we have paid down almost $5.5 billion of debt and continue to allocate substantially all our excess cash beyond dividends and stock buyback to bring down this debt.

我們在 9 月季度的經營活動現金流為 7.932 億美元。我們的自由現金流為 6.829 億美元，占淨銷售額的 32.9%。截至 9 月 30 日，我們的綜合現金和總投資頭寸為 3.068 億美元。我們在 9 月季度償還了 2.649 億美元的總債務，我們的淨債務減少了 1.926 億美元。自從我們完成對 Microsemi 的收購併為此產生了超過 80 億美元的債務以來的過去 17 個完整季度中，我們已經償還了近 55 億美元的債務，並繼續將我們所有的多餘現金分配到股息和股票回購之外，以降低這種情況債務。

Our adjusted EBITDA in the September quarter was a record at $1.056 billion and 50.9% of net sales. Our trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA was also a record at $3.814 billion. Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 1.84 at September 30, 2022, down from 2.05 at June 30, 2022, and down from 3.0 at September 30, 2021.

我們在 9 月季度調整後的 EBITDA 達到創紀錄的 10.56 億美元，占淨銷售額的 50.9%。我們過去 12 個月調整後的 EBITDA 也達到創紀錄的 38.14 億美元。截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日，我們與調整後 EBITDA 的淨債務為 1.84，低於 2022 年 6 月 30 日的 2.05，低於 2021 年 9 月 30 日的 3.0。

Capital expenditures were $110.3 million in the September quarter. Our expectation for capital expenditures for fiscal year 2023 is between $500 million and $550 million as we continue to take actions to support the growth of our business and the ramp of our manufacturing operations.

9 月季度的資本支出為 1.103 億美元。我們對 2023 財年的資本支出的預期在 5 億美元至 5.5 億美元之間，因為我們將繼續採取行動支持我們的業務增長和製造業務的增長。

We continue to prudently add capital equipment to maintain, grow and operate our internal manufacturing operations to support the expected long-term growth of our business. We expect these capital investments will bring gross margin improvement to our business and give us increased control over our production during periods of industry-wide constraints. Depreciation expense in the September quarter was $63.6 million.

我們繼續謹慎地增加資本設備，以維持、發展和運營我們的內部製造業務，以支持我們業務的預期長期增長。我們預計這些資本投資將為我們的業務帶來毛利率的提高，並讓我們在全行業受限期間加強對生產的控制。 9 月季度的折舊費用為 6360 萬美元。

I will now turn it over to Ganesh to give his comments on the performance of the business in the September quarter as well as our guidance for the December quarter. Ganesh?

我現在將把它交給 Ganesh，就 9 月季度的業務表現以及我們對 12 月季度的指導發表評論。加內甚？

Thank you, Eric, and good afternoon, everyone. Our September quarter results continued to be strong, driven by our disciplined execution and our resilient end markets. Net sales grew 5.6% sequentially and 25.7% on a year-over-year basis to achieve another all-time record at $2.07 billion. While we don't normally provide information on a distribution sell-through basis, which we refer to as end market demand, we are providing information this quarter to give investors some insight into consumption. September quarter end market demand grew sequentially at about the same rate as our GAAP net sales, which is based on sell-in recognition. The September quarter was our eighth consecutive quarter where we achieved a net sales record and the first time we have ever crossed the $8 billion annualized net sales mark.

謝謝你，埃里克，大家下午好。在我們紀律嚴明的執行和富有彈性的終端市場的推動下，我們 9 月的季度業績繼續強勁。淨銷售額環比增長 5.6%，同比增長 25.7%，創下 20.7 億美元的歷史新高。雖然我們通常不提供基於分銷銷售的信息，我們將其稱為終端市場需求，但我們在本季度提供信息，讓投資者對消費有所了解。 9 月季度末市場需求的環比增長速度與我們的 GAAP 淨銷售額大致相同，該淨銷售額基於賣出確認。 9 月季度是我們連續第八個季度實現淨銷售額記錄，也是我們首次突破 80 億美元的年化淨銷售額大關。

Non-GAAP gross margin came in at the high end of our guidance at a record 67.7%, up 64 basis points from the June quarter and up 244 basis points from the year ago quarter. Non-GAAP operating margin came in well above the high end of our guidance at a record 46.9%, up 127 basis points from the June quarter and up 438 basis points from the year ago quarter.

非美國通用會計準則毛利率達到我們指引的高端，達到創紀錄的 67.7%，比 6 月季度增長 64 個基點，比去年同期增長 244 個基點。非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率遠高於我們指引的高端，達到創紀錄的 46.9%，比 6 月季度增長 127 個基點，比去年同期增長 438 個基點。

Due to a rapid increase in net sales over the last 2 years, operating expenses at 20.9% were about 160 basis points below the low end of our long-term model range of 22.5% to 23.5%. Our long-term operating expense model will continue to guide our investment actions to drive the long-term growth, profitability and durability of our business.

由於過去兩年淨銷售額的快速增長，20.9% 的運營費用比我們長期模型範圍的低端 22.5% 至 23.5% 低約 160 個基點。我們的長期運營費用模型將繼續指導我們的投資行動，以推動我們業務的長期增長、盈利能力和持久性。

Our consolidated non-GAAP diluted EPS was a record $1.46 per share, up 36.4% from the year ago quarter and at the high end of our guidance. Adjusted EBITDA at 50.9% of net sales and free cash flow at 32.9% of net sales were both very strong in the September quarter, continuing to demonstrate the robust cash generation capabilities of our business.

我們的綜合非公認會計原則攤薄後每股收益達到創紀錄的每股 1.46 美元，比去年同期增長 36.4%，處於我們指導的高端。 9 月季度的調整後 EBITDA（占淨銷售額的 50.9%）和自由現金流（占淨銷售額的 32.9%）都非常強勁，繼續展示了我們業務強勁的現金生成能力。

Net debt declined by $192.6 million, driving our net leverage ratio down to 1.84x exiting the September quarter. During the September quarter, we returned $413.3 million to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases, representing 57.5% of the prior quarter's free cash flow.

淨債務減少了 1.926 億美元，使我們的淨槓桿率在 9 月季度結束時降至 1.84 倍。在 9 月季度，我們向股東返還了 4.133 億美元的股息和股票回購，佔上一季度自由現金流的 57.5%。

I would like to take this opportunity to thank all our stakeholders who enabled us to achieve these outstanding results and especially thank the worldwide Microchip team for their continued efforts during challenging times to deliver results for our customers despite a large and persistent imbalance between supply and demand.

我想藉此機會感謝我們所有的利益相關者，他們使我們能夠取得這些出色的成果，尤其感謝全球 Microchip 團隊在充滿挑戰的時期繼續努力為我們的客戶提供成果，儘管供需之間存在巨大且持續的不平衡.

Taking a look at our net sales from a product line perspective, our microcontroller net sales were sequentially up 11% as compared to the June quarter and set another all-time record. On a year-over-year basis, our September quarter microcontroller net sales were up 31.9%, and microcontrollers represented 56.9% of our net sales in the September quarter.

從產品線的角度來看我們的淨銷售額，我們的微控制器淨銷售額與 6 月季度相比環比增長 11%，並創下歷史新高。與去年同期相比，我們 9 月季度的微控制器淨銷售額增長了 31.9%，微控制器占我們 9 月季度淨銷售額的 56.9%。

Our analog net sales sequentially decreased 1.3% in the September quarter. On a year-over-year basis, our September quarter analog net sales were up 16.6%, and analog represented 27.6% of our net sales in the September quarter.

我們的模擬淨銷售額在 9 月季度環比下降 1.3%。與去年同期相比，我們 9 月季度的模擬淨銷售額增長了 16.6%，模擬占我們 9 月季度淨銷售額的 27.6%。

As we mentioned last quarter, there are quarter-to-quarter differences in supply constraints, which can cause differences in net sales growth by product line. If you compare the trailing 4-quarter net sales growth performance versus the prior 4 quarters for our analog and microcontroller product lines, the growth rates are almost exactly the same. In the September quarter, our technology licensing net sales achieved a new record.

正如我們上個季度提到的，供應限制存在季度差異，這可能導致不同產品線的淨銷售額增長存在差異。如果您將我們的模擬和微控制器產品線過去 4 個季度的淨銷售增長業績與前 4 個季度的業績進行比較，增長率幾乎完全相同。在 9 月季度，我們的技術許可淨銷售額創下新紀錄。

Business conditions continue to be strong as viewed through our internal indicators. Demand continued to be strong despite the capacity increases we have been implementing for some time now. As a result, our unsupported backlog, which represents backlog customers wanted shipped to them in the September quarter but which we could not deliver in the September quarter, climbed again. And we exited the September quarter with our highest unsupported backlog ever with unsupported backlog well above the actual net sales we achieved.

從我們的內部指標來看，商業狀況繼續強勁。儘管我們已經實施了一段時間的產能增加，但需求仍然強勁。結果，我們不受支持的積壓訂單（代表積壓客戶希望在 9 月季度發貨但我們無法在 9 月季度交付）再次攀升。我們以有史以來最高的未支持積壓退出了 9 月季度，未支持的積壓遠高於我們實現的實際淨銷售額。

We are working hard to reduce our unsupported backlog to more manageable levels and expect to do so in the coming quarters but also expect to remain supply constrained through the rest of 2022 and well into 2023. We are, of course, cognizant of the weakening macro conditions resulting from rising inflation and interest rates and are monitoring such conditions closely.

我們正在努力將我們不受支持的積壓減少到更易於管理的水平，並預計在未來幾個季度這樣做，但也預計在 2022 年剩餘時間和 2023 年之前供應將保持受限。當然，我們認識到宏觀經濟疲軟通貨膨脹和利率上升導致的狀況，並正在密切監測這些狀況。

We're also aware that there is some inventory build at our customers as can be seen in their balance sheets. Some of this, we believe, is due to strategic buffer inventory builds arising from the learnings of the last 2 years, and some of this is due to the incomplete kits of the infamous golden screw effect. While we've seen an increase in requests to push out or cancel backlog, these requests remain a very small fraction of the very large backlog we have over multiple quarters, and hence, they have not had a material impact on our business.

我們還知道，從他們的資產負債表中可以看出，我們的客戶有一些庫存。我們認為，其中一些是由於過去 2 年的學習所產生的戰略緩衝庫存構建，還有一些是由於臭名昭著的金螺絲效應的不完整套件。雖然我們看到推出或取消積壓的請求有所增加，但這些請求在我們多個季度的大量積壓中仍然只佔很小的一部分，因此，它們對我們的業務沒有重大影響。

We believe there are 3 reasons why Microchip's business is demonstrating more resilience in the midst of the weakness seen by some of the other semiconductor companies. First, on the demand side, the industrial, automotive, aerospace and defense, data center and communications infrastructure end markets, which make up 86% of our net sales, remain strong. The consumer end market, which is about 14% of our net sales, is experienced some weakness but is dominated by home appliances. And home appliances are more resilient than other consumer markets as a high percentage of demand comes from replacements for appliances which have broken down and must be replaced. Hence, our demand is quite durable because of the end market mix we have consciously gravitated towards over the years.

我們認為，在其他一些半導體公司看到疲軟的情況下，Microchip 的業務表現出更大的彈性有 3 個原因。首先，在需求方面，占我們淨銷售額 86% 的工業、汽車、航空航天和國防、數據中心和通信基礎設施終端市場依然強勁。占我們淨銷售額約 14% 的消費端市場經歷了一些疲軟，但以家電為主。家用電器比其他消費市場更具彈性，因為很大一部分需求來自對已損壞且必須更換的電器的更換。因此，由於多年來我們有意識地傾向於最終市場組合，我們的需求相當持久。

Second, on the supply side, a vast majority of our products are built on specialized technologies requiring trailing edge capacity. This is the capacity that has been most constrained over the last 2 years, which still remains constrained and where there was the least opportunity to overship the consumption. And last but not least, our laser focus on organic growth through total system solutions and higher-growth megatrends for multiple years is giving us increased design win momentum and a resultant revenue tailwind.

其次，在供應方面，我們的絕大多數產品都建立在需要後緣能力的專業技術之上。這是過去 2 年中受到最大限制的產能，但仍然受到限制，並且最不可能過度消費。最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我們多年來通過整體系統解決方案和更高增長的大趨勢專注於有機增長，這給我們帶來了更大的設計獲胜勢頭和由此產生的收入順風。

Given the crosscurrents of strong internal business indicators and some uncertainty in the macro environment, we have modeled a range of potential scenarios and are closely monitoring various indicators, which should enable us to take deliberate action when we feel it's appropriate. Our goal is to deliver a soft landing for our business, if or when there is a softer -- a softer macro environment catches up with it. The playbook we shared with you last quarter for how we will deal with the macro slowdown remains unchanged.

鑑於強勁的內部業務指標的交叉和宏觀環境的一些不確定性，我們已經模擬了一系列潛在的場景並密切關注各種指標，這應該使我們能夠在我們認為合適的時候採取慎重的行動。我們的目標是為我們的業務實現軟著陸，如果或當有一個更軟的宏觀環境趕上它時。我們上個季度與您分享的關於我們將如何應對宏觀經濟放緩的劇本保持不變。

If you study Microchip's peak-to-trough performance through the business cycles over the last 15 years, you will observe our robust and consistent cash generation, gross margin and operating margin results. The investor presentation posted on our IR website provides details about our performance through the business cycles. If or when there is a macro slowdown and that impacts our business, we expect our cash generation, gross margin and operating margin to once again demonstrate consistency and resiliency. This will help us continue to execute our long-term Microchip 3.0 strategy and help insulate it from whatever short-term market challenges there may be.

如果您研究 Microchip 在過去 15 年的商業周期中從峰值到低谷的表現，您將觀察到我們穩健且一致的現金生成、毛利率和營業利潤率結果。我們投資者關係網站上發布的投資者介紹詳細介紹了我們在整個商業周期中的表現。如果或當出現宏觀經濟放緩並影響我們的業務時，我們預計我們的現金產生、毛利率和營業利潤率將再次表現出一致性和彈性。這將幫助我們繼續執行我們的長期 Microchip 3.0 戰略，並幫助我們將其與可能存在的任何短期市場挑戰隔離開來。

While we are seeing some loosening of constraints in our supply chain, we continue to have several internal and external capacity corridors that remain very constrained. We are continuing with our carefully calibrated capacity increases seeking to serve what we believe is a long-term consumption growth. We believe our calibrated increase in capital spending will enable us to capitalize on growth opportunities, serve our customers better, increase our market share, improve our gross margins and give us more control over our destiny, especially for specialized trailing edge technologies.

雖然我們看到供應鏈中的限制有所放鬆，但我們仍然有幾個內部和外部的產能走廊仍然非常受限。我們將繼續進行精心校準的產能增長，以服務於我們認為的長期消費增長。我們相信，資本支出的校準增長將使我們能夠利用增長機會，更好地為客戶服務，增加我們的市場份額，提高我們的毛利率，並讓我們更好地控制我們的命運，特別是對於專業的後緣技術。

As you may have seen, Microchip has expressed its view that the recently approved CHIPS Act is good for the semiconductor industry and for America as it enables critical investments, which will even the global playing field for U.S. companies while being strategically important for our economic and national security.

正如您可能已經看到的，Microchip 表示，最近批准的 CHIPS 法案對半導體行業和美國都有好處，因為它可以實現關鍵投資，甚至對美國公司來說將是全球競爭環境，同時對我們的經濟和戰略具有重要意義。國家安全。

For a very long time, an important component of our business strategy has been to own and operate a substantial portion of our manufacturing resources, including wafer fabrication facilities in the U.S. This strategy enables us to maintain a high level of manufacturing control, resulting in us being one of the lowest-cost producers in the embedded control industry. In light of this strategy and potential grant funding from the CHIPS Act, the investment tax credit provision as well as state and local grants and subsidies, Microchip is in the early stages of considering a 300-millimeter U.S.-based fab for specialized trailing-edge technologies.

很長一段時間以來，我們業務戰略的一個重要組成部分一直是擁有和運營我們大部分的製造資源，包括在美國的晶圓製造設施。這一戰略使我們能夠保持高水平的製造控制，從而使我們是嵌入式控制行業成本最低的生產商之一。鑑於這一戰略和 CHIPS 法案的潛在贈款資金、投資稅收抵免條款以及州和地方的贈款和補貼，Microchip 正處於考慮在美國建立 300 毫米晶圓廠的早期階段，用於專門的後緣技術。

This fab project, if we decide to pursue it, would be intended to provide competitive growth capacity as well as geographic and geopolitical diversification. The availability of grants, subsidies and other incentives will all be important considerations in our analysis and will also help determine the location and timing for the fab.

如果我們決定繼續這個晶圓廠項目，它將旨在提供有競爭力的增長能力以及地理和地緣政治多元化。贈款、補貼和其他激勵措施的可用性都是我們分析中的重要考慮因素，也將有助於確定工廠的位置和時間。

Now let's get into the guidance for the December quarter. Our backlog for the December quarter is strong, and we have more capacity improvements coming into effect. Taking all the factors we've discussed on the call today into consideration, we expect our net sales for the December quarter to be up between 3% and 5% sequentially. We also expect our net sales based on end market demand to grow at about the same growth as our GAAP net sales. And further, we expect sequential net sales growth again in the March quarter.

現在讓我們進入 12 月季度的指導。我們在 12 月季度的積壓工作量很大，而且我們有更多的產能改進正在生效。考慮到我們今天在電話會議上討論的所有因素，我們預計 12 月季度的淨銷售額將環比增長 3% 至 5%。我們還預計我們基於終端市場需求的淨銷售額將以與我們的 GAAP 淨銷售額大致相同的速度增長。此外，我們預計 3 月季度的淨銷售額將再次連續增長。

At the midpoint of our net sales guidance, our year-over-year growth for the December quarter would be a strong 22.7%. We expect our non-GAAP gross margin to be between 67.8% and 68% of sales. We expect non-GAAP operating expenses to be between 20.7% and 20.9% of sales. We expect non-GAAP operating profit to be between 46.9% and 47.3% of sales. And we expect our non-GAAP diluted earnings per share to be between $1.54 per share and $1.56 per share. At the midpoint of our EPS guidance, our year-over-year growth for the December quarter would be a strong 29.2%.

在我們淨銷售額指引的中點，我們 12 月季度的同比增長將達到 22.7%。我們預計我們的非公認會計原則毛利率將在銷售額的 67.8% 至 68% 之間。我們預計非 GAAP 運營費用將佔銷售額的 20.7% 至 20.9%。我們預計非 GAAP 營業利潤將佔銷售額的 46.9% 至 47.3%。我們預計我們的非公認會計原則攤薄後每股收益將在每股 1.54 美元至每股 1.56 美元之間。在我們每股收益指引的中點，我們 12 月季度的同比增長將達到 29.2%。

Finally, as you can see from our September quarter results and our December quarter guidance, our Microchip 3.0 strategy, which we launched a year ago, is firing on all cylinders as we continue to build and improve what we believe is one of the most diversified, defensible, high-growth, high-margin, high cash-generating businesses in the semiconductor industry.

最後，從我們 9 月的季度業績和 12 月的季度指導中可以看出，我們一年前推出的 Microchip 3.0 戰略正在全力以赴，因為我們繼續構建和改進我們認為最多元化的戰略之一、可防禦、高增長、高利潤、高現金產生的半導體行業業務。

Let me now pass the baton to Steve to talk more about our cash return to shareholders. Steve?

現在讓我把接力棒交給史蒂夫，更多地談談我們對股東的現金回報。史蒂夫?

Thank you, Ganesh, and good afternoon, everyone. I would like to reflect on our financial results announced today and provide you further updates on our cash return strategy.

謝謝 Ganesh，大家下午好。我想回顧一下我們今天宣布的財務業績，並為您提供有關我們現金回報策略的進一步更新。

Reflecting on our financial results, I continue to be very proud of all employees of Microchip that have delivered another exceptional quarter while making new records in many respects, namely record net sales, record non-GAAP gross margin percentage, record non-GAAP operating margin percentage, record non-GAAP EPS and record adjusted EBITDA and all of that in a very challenging supply environment.

回顧我們的財務業績，我繼續為 Microchip 的所有員工感到非常自豪，他們在許多方面創造了新的記錄，即創紀錄的淨銷售額、創紀錄的非 GAAP 毛利率、創紀錄的非 GAAP 營業利潤率百分比、創紀錄的非公認會計原則每股收益和創紀錄的調整後 EBITDA 以及在非常具有挑戰性的供應環境中的所有這些。

The Board of Directors announced an increase in the dividend of 9% from last quarter to $0.328 per share. This is an increase of 41.4% from the year ago quarter. During the last quarter, we purchased $247.2 million of our stock in the open market. We also paid out $166.1 million in dividends. Thus, the total cash return was $413.3 million. This amount was 57.5% of our actual free cash flow of $718.5 million during the June 2022 quarter. Our paydown of debt as well as record adjusted EBITDA drove down our net leverage at the end of September 2022 quarter to 1.84 from 2.05 at the end of June.

董事會宣布將股息從上一季度增加 9% 至每股 0.328 美元。這比去年同期增長了 41.4%。在上一季度，我們在公開市場上購買了 2.472 億美元的股票。我們還支付了 1.661 億美元的股息。因此，總現金回報為 4.133 億美元。該金額占我們 2022 年 6 月季度實際自由現金流 7.185 億美元的 57.5%。我們的債務償還以及創紀錄的調整後 EBITDA 將我們在 2022 年 9 月季度末的淨槓桿率從 6 月底的 2.05 降至 1.84。

Ever since we achieved investment-grade rating for our debt in November of 2021 and pivoted to increasing our capital return to shareholders, we have returned $1.457 billion to shareholders through September 30, 2022, by a combination of dividends and share buybacks. In the December quarter, we will use the September quarter's actual free cash flow of $682.9 million and plan to return 60% or $409.7 million of that amount to our shareholders. Of this $409.7 million, the dividend is expected to be approximately $181 million. And the stock buyback is expected to be approximately $228.7 million.

自 2021 年 11 月我們的債務獲得投資級評級並轉向增加對股東的資本回報以來，截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日，我們通過股息和股票回購相結合的方式向股東返還了 14.57 億美元。在 12 月季度，我們將使用 9 月季度的實際自由現金流 6.829 億美元，併計劃將其中的 60% 或 4.097 億美元返還給我們的股東。在這 4.097 億美元中，預計股息約為 1.81 億美元。股票回購預計約為2.287億美元。

With that, operator, will you please poll for questions?

有了這個，接線員，請您投票提問嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Ambrish Srivastava of BMO has our first question.

（操作員說明）BMO 的 Ambrish Srivastava 提出了我們的第一個問題。

It's very appreciated that you put the investor slide deck where you talk about the playbook and the scenarios, and you've talked about the playbook. But I just can't help ask this question because weakness is rampant. It's everywhere. Many of your diversified peers have talked about weakness. Just kind of help us understand, the big concern I have is the longer the lead time stays stressed out, the higher the possibility of a harder landing. So just kind of help us understand how are you managing the "soft" landing that you have addressed a few times, but I just wanted to readdress that issue, if you could, please.

非常感謝您將投資者幻燈片放在您談論劇本和場景的地方，並且您已經談到了劇本。但我就是忍不住要問這個問題，因為弱點很猖獗。它無處不在。您的許多多元化同行都談到了弱點。只是幫助我們理解，我最擔心的是交貨時間越長，更難著陸的可能性就越大。因此，請幫助我們了解您如何管理您已經多次解決的“軟”著陸，但我只是想重新解決這個問題，如果可以的話，請。

Sure. So it starts with having high-quality backlog. And PSP being a high percentage of our backlog, well over 50%, is the highest-quality backlog. It is noncancelable. It's customers who have put time into making a commitment to be noncancelable, and that is always going to have far more thought that goes into it.

當然。因此，首先要擁有高質量的積壓工作。 PSP 在我們的待辦事項中佔很大比例，遠遠超過 50%，是最高質量的待辦事項。它是不可取消的。是客戶花時間做出不可取消的承諾，而且總是會有更多的想法投入其中。

It starts also with the supply side where we're making calibrated investments every quarter. We're not trying to go satisfy all the demand that's out there. And our lead times are long, but they've also, in specific areas, started to improve. And that helps with customers who have visibility out in time.

它也從我們每季度進行校準投資的供應方開始。我們並不是要滿足所有的需求。我們的交貨時間很長，但在特定領域，它們也開始改進。這有助於及時了解情況的客戶。

And then the end market exposure we have is another huge benefit to us, right? Most of these customers in these end markets are not in volatile markets where things can go up and down in short order. They're looking at the long term. They're looking at demand that is far more durable.

然後我們擁有的終端市場曝光對我們來說是另一個巨大的好處，對嗎？這些終端市場中的大多數客戶並不處於動蕩的市場中，在這些市場中情況可能會在短時間內起起落落。他們著眼於長遠。他們正在尋找更持久的需求。

And you put all that together, and we feel we have a model that is outperforming, and for those reasons, from a market standpoint, supply standpoint, and what we have done for ourselves in terms of total system solutions and the mega trends we're focused on and the design-in activity that we have pursued.

你把所有這些放在一起，我們覺得我們有一個表現出色的模型，出於這些原因，從市場的角度來看，供應的角度，以及我們在整體系統解決方案和我們的大趨勢方面為自己所做的事情'重新專注於我們所追求的設計活動。

Okay. Just a quick follow-up. Where are the lead times now on a -- and I know the product line is very diverse, but the way you characterize it, what percent of lead times are -- have come in versus staying at 52-plus weeks?

好的。只是快速跟進。現在的交貨時間在哪裡 - 我知道產品線非常多樣化，但是你描述它的方式，交貨時間的百分比是 - 已經進入而不是停留在 52 多周？

The lead times are all over the place. We have some lead times which are as low as 4 to 8 weeks. We have a lot of them which are at 26 to 52 weeks. It's corridor by corridor, product by product, where the constraints are, right? We go to work every day trying to improve it. And as long as supply improves, we're able to do that. Demand remains still strong.

交貨時間到處都是。我們有一些交貨時間低至 4 到 8 週。我們有很多他們在 26 到 52 週。一個走廊一個走廊，一個產品一個產品，限制在哪裡，對吧？我們每天都去工作，試圖改進它。只要供應有所改善，我們就能做到這一點。需求依然強勁。

So there's not a single number I can give you or a single percentage that I can say, "Hey, this is what the lead times are at." But most importantly, it's not just the lead times. It's also how strong the demand is. And you can see with some of the end market data that we provide you the information on the growth, right? The end market growth is keeping pace with what we're shipping in to -- on a GAAP basis.

因此，我沒有一個數字可以告訴你，也沒有一個百分比可以說，“嘿，這就是交貨時間。”但最重要的是，這不僅僅是交貨時間。這也是需求的強勁程度。您可以通過一些終端市場數據看到我們為您提供的增長信息，對嗎？終端市場的增長與我們的出貨量保持同步——在 GAAP 的基礎上。

Next, we'll hear from Vivek Arya of Bank of America Securities.

接下來，我們將聽取美國銀行證券公司的 Vivek Arya 的來信。

Thanks for taking my questions. For the first one, it's very interesting you're considering a 300-millimeter fab. I was wondering what is driving that decision? What kind of CapEx will it require? Will it have any impact on your dividend or buyback philosophy? And does it mean you will bring back some of what you're giving to external foundries inside the company? Just any more color on the 300-millimeter fab. I appreciate it's probably still in early stages of discussion.

感謝您提出我的問題。對於第一個，您正在考慮一個 300 毫米的晶圓廠，這非常有趣。我想知道是什麼推動了這個決定？它需要什麼樣的資本支出？它會對您的股息或回購理念產生任何影響嗎？這是否意味著你會帶回一些你給公司內部的外部代工廠的東西？ 300 毫米晶圓廠的顏色再多一點。我很欣賞它可能仍處於討論的早期階段。

Yes. So you should look at it as it's a very strategic thought process and decision for us. It's something we think about over a 20-year-plus time frame of what it will do for us. Not unlike how when we bought our Gresham fab just about 20 years ago, right? It was a long-term investment that we made.

是的。因此，您應該將其視為對我們來說非常具有戰略意義的思考過程和決策。這是我們在 20 多年的時間框架內考慮的事情，它將為我們做什麼。與大約 20 年前我們購買 Gresham 工廠時的情形沒有什麼不同，對吧？這是我們進行的一項長期投資。

We have many processes that are at 300 millimeters that are candidates. We have some specific ones we would look at as the early ones we bring in. But I wouldn't look at it as necessarily just bringing all the stuff inside as much as, as we grow, we would have additional places where it can grow. This investment will happen over multiple years. It will be largely within the range of the CapEx that we have provided and that we do not expect it to have either an impact on our dividend or our share buyback or anything else with where we're at.

我們有許多 300 毫米的候選工藝。我們有一些特定的東西，我們會將其視為我們引入的早期產品。但我不會認為只是將所有的東西都帶進去，因為隨著我們的成長，我們會有更多可以生長的地方.這項投資將持續多年。它將在很大程度上在我們提供的資本支出範圍內，並且我們預計它不會對我們的股息或我們的股票回購或我們所處的任何其他方面產生影響。

And for my follow-up, I think, Ganesh, you mentioned that one reason that you might be seeing the strength is some customers are building some buffer inventory. I'm curious how far along do you think they are in that process? And does it just pull forward their demand from other quarters? Because I think what everyone is trying to get a sense for is that in most prior downturns, Microchip was always the first one to signal when the macro conditions weakened. This time conditions are weakening. Every one of your competitors is saying that yet you're not seeing it. So what has changed versus your analog industrial peers? I can understand the consumer part, but what's different versus your peers who are also exposed to the same automotive industrial type markets. Are you guys still there?

對於我的後續行動，我認為，Ganesh，您提到您可能會看到實力的一個原因是一些客戶正在建立一些緩衝庫存。我很好奇你認為他們在這個過程中走了多遠？它是否只是從其他方面拉動他們的需求？因為我認為每個人都試圖了解的是，在之前的大多數低迷時期，Microchip 總是第一個在宏觀條件減弱時發出信號。這次條件正在減弱。您的每個競爭對手都在說，但您沒有看到它。那麼與您的模擬工業同行相比發生了什麼變化？我可以理解消費者部分，但與同樣接觸相同汽車工業類型市場的同行相比有什麼不同。你們還在嗎？

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Please remain on the line while we reconnect our presenters. You may proceed.

在我們重新連接我們的演示者時，請保持在線。你可以繼續。

We're back. Vivek, if you're still on, we didn't get the entirety of your question. Would you repeat your question, please?

我們回來了。 Vivek，如果你還在，我們沒有得到你的全部問題。請你重複你的問題好嗎？

Yes. So basically, what I asked, Ganesh, was that you mentioned customers are building buffer inventory. I was just wondering how far along they are in that process. And in general, if you contrast Microchip today versus in prior downturns, right, when you had a somewhat similar mix of products, the company was always the first to see the downturn, but you're not seeing it now. So I was curious what is the difference between the old Microchip versus the new Microchip.

是的。所以基本上，我問的是，Ganesh，你提到客戶正在建立緩衝庫存。我只是想知道他們在這個過程中走了多遠。總的來說，如果您將今天的 Microchip 與之前的低迷時期進行對比，對，當您擁有類似的產品組合時，該公司總是第一個看到低迷，但您現在沒有看到。所以我很好奇舊的 Microchip 和新的 Microchip 有什麼區別。

Sure. So let me answer the second one first. If you look at the old Microchip, we had more exposure to markets that perhaps are more volatile, right? We didn't have the same aerospace and defense, data center infrastructure. We weren't as high in industrial and automotive. And those are far more durable, right? We had a much higher consumer exposure if you go back 10 years or the financial crisis in that time frame. So that has changed to where we can see the customer and their end market demand as being far more durable today than it was in history.

當然。所以我先回答第二個。如果你看看舊的 Microchip，我們會更多地接觸可能更不穩定的市場，對吧？我們沒有相同的航空航天和國防、數據中心基礎設施。我們在工業和汽車領域沒有那麼高。那些更耐用，對吧？如果你回到 10 年前或那個時間範圍內的金融危機，我們的消費者曝光率要高得多。因此，這已經改變為我們可以看到客戶及其最終市場需求今天比歷史上更加持久的地方。

On your first question about what about the buffer. I think the amount that's being built is small because we're not able to ship, right? I mean, we're constrained in our ability to service all this backlog that is unsupported. But anecdotally, are there going to be some customers who are building in? Yes, we're sure there is some of that. But we still think it's small. And mostly, it is in the markets where there's a very large multiplier for the OEM's end product as compared to the value of the semiconductors that they're carrying.

關於緩衝區的第一個問題。我認為正在建造的數量很小，因為我們無法發貨，對吧？我的意思是，我們服務所有這些不受支持的積壓工作的能力受到限制。但有趣的是，會有一些客戶在建嗎？是的，我們確信其中有一些。但我們仍然認為它很小。大多數情況下，與他們所攜帶的半導體的價值相比，OEM 的最終產品的乘數很大的市場。

Christopher Rolland, Susquehanna.

克里斯托弗·羅蘭，薩斯奎哈納。

I guess my first one is for either Steve or Ganesh. So you had confidence enough to provide growth into March, which is pretty incredible in this environment. Is this -- do you think you have this confidence and this visibility because of your kind of tough stance on your NCNR policy? Is it perhaps you're looking to channel inventories and keeping those tight? Is there some other difference here operationally or that kind of affects your confidence versus others out there? Is there something you're doing different?

我想我的第一個是給史蒂夫或加內甚的。所以你有足夠的信心在 3 月份實現增長，這在這種環境下是相當不可思議的。這是 - 你認為你有這種信心和這種知名度是因為你對你的 NCNR 政策的強硬立場嗎？您是否正在尋找渠道庫存並保持緊張？這裡在操作上是否還有其他一些差異，或者那種影響你與其他人的信心？你有什麼不同的事情嗎？

So firstly, we have confidence both on the demand side as well as the improving supply that we're making. But let me put it in perspective, right?

因此，首先，我們對需求方面以及我們正在改善的供應方面都有信心。但是，讓我換個角度來看，對吧？

Even if we accepted 100% of all the cancellation and pushout requests of noncancelable backlog, this factor alone would not have changed our September quarter results, our December quarter guidance, and we would remain poised to grow sequentially again in March. So don't assume that it's the noncancelability that is somehow propping us up.

即使我們接受了 100% 的不可取消積壓的所有取消和推出請求，僅此因素也不會改變我們 9 月的季度業績和 12 月的季度指導，我們仍將在 3 月繼續保持連續增長。所以不要認為是不可取消性在某種程度上支撐了我們。

Great. Steve, you've talked before about industry capacity being tight for -- and us not having enough as an industry moving forward. I think there's probably been some cancellations in terms of equipment and stuff like that but would love an update here. You -- how you feel about that? Are you even more strong in that belief? And is that what underpins the 300-millimeter thought process as well?

偉大的。史蒂夫，你之前談到過行業產能緊張——而我們作為一個行業向前發展的能力還不夠。我認為在設備和類似的東西方面可能有一些取消，但希望在這裡進行更新。你——你對此感覺如何？你是不是更加堅信這個信念？這也是 300 毫米思維過程的基礎嗎？

Right. So it began 1.5 years ago with capacity being constrained at all the nodes, trailing edge, leading edge and the middle of the way. What has happened in the last few quarters is with the personal computers and cell phones, which are significant consumers of semiconductor and mostly semiconductors on the bleeding edge of technology processors and very high-end chips in the cellular phone.

正確的。所以它始於 1.5 年前，所有節點、後緣、前沿和中間的容量都受到限制。過去幾個季度發生的情況是個人電腦和手機，它們是半導體的重要消費者，主要是處於技術處理器和手機中非常高端芯片的最前沿的半導體。

With the production in that market, the leading -- bleeding edge capacity now is really no longer constrained. You have seen dramatic downside guidance by a lot of the very leading-edge people. So today, if you wanted a 7-nanometer, 10-nanometer 14-nanometer capacity, you can have everything you need. But the trailing-edge capacity continues to be extremely constrained.

隨著該市場的生產，現在領先的前沿產能真的不再受到限制。你已經看到很多非常前沿的人給出了戲劇性的下行指導。所以今天，如果你想要 7 納米、10 納米 14 納米的容量，你可以擁有你需要的一切。但後緣產能繼續受到極大限制。

On trailing edge, we built some inside, and we also bought some from the foundries, and we're constrained on both. Inside, we haven't been able to get all the equipment we wanted. Most equipment that was even scheduled to be delivered got pushed out by many months, sometimes many quarters because the equipment supplier wasn't able to get semiconductors for their parts. So the inside products that we've done inside remain constrained on many different corridors. And the capacity we buy outside is really very similar. The trailing edge capacity remains constrained, and we currently believe will remain constrained well into 2023.

在後緣，我們在內部建造了一些，我們還從鑄造廠購買了一些，但我們都受到了限制。在裡面，我們無法獲得我們想要的所有設備。大多數甚至計劃交付的設備都被推遲了好幾個月，有時甚至是好幾個季度，因為設備供應商無法為他們的零件獲得半導體。因此，我們在內部完成的內部產品仍然受限於許多不同的走廊。而且我們在外面買的容量真的很像。後緣產能仍然受到限制，我們目前認為到 2023 年仍將受到限制。

I would add one more thing, right? I think on 300-millimeter, where -- if we started on a fab tomorrow, it's 4-plus years away before that fab is starting to ramp. So these are not decisions we make in a single cycle. We think through these across cycles on a long-term secular growth basis and what our position is and what we want our capabilities to be at in time.

我還要補充一件事，對吧？我認為在 300 毫米上，如果我們明天開始建造晶圓廠，那麼距該晶圓廠開始生產還有 4 年多的時間。所以這些不是我們在一個週期內做出的決定。我們在長期長期增長的基礎上跨週期思考這些問題，以及我們的立場是什麼以及我們希望我們的能力及時達到什麼水平。

And on the prior question, we were talking about backlog and why we're so resilient and in the prior cycle that we used to be the first one to see this and why we're not seeing it today. I think I wanted to add a comment -- a couple of comments. One that Ganesh mentioned, which is a dramatically different end market mix we have today than when you used to call the canary in the coal mine.

在上一個問題上，我們談論的是積壓工作，以及為什麼我們如此有彈性，在之前的周期中，我們曾經是第一個看到這一點的人，以及為什麼我們今天沒有看到它。我想我想添加一條評論—— 幾條評論。 Ganesh 提到的一個，這是我們今天的終端市場組合，與您過去在煤礦中稱為金絲雀時的終端市場組合截然不同。

And secondly, I think we want to keep emphasizing that PSP backlog is a very high-quality backlog. When a customer has to commit 12 months and, in some cases, 18 months and longer noncancelable, nonreschedulable backlog, there is a lot more thought that goes into it. And it's not the junior purchasing manager who places the backlog. It goes up for approval. So it's a much, much higher-quality backlog. And people don't just double order it thinking that they would cancel it because it's noncancelable. They don't double order it thinking that Microchip would let them change the rules, and we'll let them cancel it.

其次，我認為我們要繼續強調 PSP 積壓是一個非常高質量的積壓。當客戶必須提交 12 個月，在某些情況下，18 個月甚至更長的不可取消、不可重新安排的積壓工作時，需要考慮更多。而且，積壓的不是初級採購經理。它上升以供批准。所以這是一個更高質量的積壓工作。人們不會只是重複訂購它，以為他們會取消它，因為它是不可取消的。他們不會認為 Microchip 會讓他們改變規則而重複訂購，我們會讓他們取消它。

So that backlog is very high quality. We've gotten very small number of scattered requests here and there. And as Ganesh mentioned, if we were to take all of them for cancellation, it wouldn't change anything. It would not change our September, December or March. It's just a minuscule percentage. It really means nothing almost. So take that into account.

因此，積壓的工作質量非常高。我們在這里和那裡收到了非常少量的分散請求。正如 Ganesh 所提到的，如果我們將所有這些都取消，它不會改變任何事情。它不會改變我們的九月、十二月或三月。這只是一個很小的百分比。它幾乎沒有任何意義。所以考慮到這一點。

We've heard from a lot of investors and analysts that think PSP is some sort of accident to happen because people are building inventory, and we're not letting them cancel it, and the fall would be even harder. I think that thinking is not correct.

我們從許多投資者和分析師那裡聽到，他們認為 PSP 是某種意外發生，因為人們正在建立庫存，我們不會讓他們取消它，而且跌幅會更大。我認為這種想法是不正確的。

Next, we'll hear from Timothy Arcuri of UBS.

接下來，我們將聽取瑞銀的蒂莫西·阿庫裡 (Timothy Arcuri) 的講話。

You mentioned PSP is more than half of backlog, but can you talk about how much of the September revenue is moving inside of PSP? And maybe, Steve, I know that you just made some comments about some requests for changes within PSP. It sounds like they're still pretty small. But I guess can you also just double click on the comment you just made because PSP doesn't really change demand. I mean, to a certain degree, you just put product to customers that might not need it because they committed to it 6 to 12 months ago. So can you just kind of talk through that and then maybe answer the question about how much revenue is moving inside of PSP.

你提到 PSP 有超過一半的積壓，但你能談談 9 月份的收入有多少是轉移到 PSP 內部的嗎？也許，史蒂夫，我知道你剛剛對 PSP 中的一些更改請求發表了一些評論。聽起來他們還很小。但我想你也可以雙擊你剛剛發表的評論，因為 PSP 並沒有真正改變需求。我的意思是，在某種程度上，你只是將產品提供給可能不需要它的客戶，因為他們在 6 到 12 個月前就已經承諾了。所以你能不能說一下，然後回答關於 PSP 內部有多少收入的問題。

So firstly, in a given quarter, by the time we get to that quarter, PSP is an overwhelming percentage of what we ship in that quarter. That's what customers who place backlog back in time, receive priority for it, expect. And that's what we give them. And so further out in time, there is more space, and new backlog can come in and fill it out. But near term, like what just happened in September or what is going to happen in December, has a very, very high percentage of it that is PSP backlog that is being fulfilled.

因此，首先，在給定的季度，當我們到達那個季度時，PSP 占我們在那個季度出貨量的絕大多數。這就是那些及時將積壓工作放回原處、獲得優先權的客戶所期望的。這就是我們給他們的。因此，時間越長，空間就越多，新的積壓工作可以進來並填補它。但近期，就像 9 月剛剛發生的事情或 12 月將發生的事情一樣，其中有非常非常高的百分比是 PSP 積壓的正在完成。

Let me reiterate the point Steve made and which I made a little bit earlier on. PSP backlog is the highest-quality backlog out there. We make noncancelable commitments to our suppliers, and we don't make them lightly because there is a financial commitment that is required to have enough scrutiny.

讓我重申一下史蒂夫提出的觀點，以及我早些時候提出的觀點。 PSP 待辦事項是目前質量最高的待辦事項。我們對我們的供應商做出不可撤銷的承諾，我們不會輕易做出承諾，因為有一項財務承諾需要進行足夠的審查。

Similarly, our customers have significant scrutiny when they're trying to make commitments. They don't try to get excess capacity ordered from us. They, in fact, will try to undershoot so that they can actually hit it. So I want you to take from this that PSP backlog is the highest-quality backlog. We have far more cancellations and requests on non-PSP, but PSP backlog is very high quality.

同樣，我們的客戶在做出承諾時也會受到嚴格的審查。他們不會試圖從我們這裡訂購過剩的產能。事實上，他們會嘗試低於目標，以便他們能夠真正擊中它。所以我希望你能從中看出 PSP 積壓是最高質量的積壓。我們對非 PSP 的取消和請求要多得多，但 PSP 積壓的質量非常高。

And even outside PSP, I want to note that our standard cancellation window is 90 days. So when we enter a quarter, really, everything that's on books for the quarter is noncancelable, whether it's PSP or not.

即使在 PSP 之外，我想指出我們的標準取消窗口是 90 天。因此，當我們進入一個季度時，實際上，該季度賬面上的所有內容都是不可取消的，無論是否是 PSP。

You should also think that when we took the PSP backlog and for the last 1.5 years, in the middle of extreme constraints, we made a choice to ship to the PSP customers and not ship to the non-PSP customers. All the non-PSP customers are not low-quality customers. Some of them are very good customers, but their business is such that they cannot make a 1-year commitment, so they were non-PSP customers. They got very little product.

您還應該認為，當我們處理 PSP 積壓訂單時，在過去的 1.5 年中，在極端限制的情況下，我們做出了向 PSP 客戶發貨而不是向非 PSP 客戶發貨的選擇。所有非 PSP 客戶都不是低質量客戶。他們中的一些人是非常好的客戶，但他們的業務是他們無法做出 1 年的承諾，所以他們是非 PSP 客戶。他們得到的產品很少。

So we made a choice to prioritize giving it to PSP customers and let the other customers go, not get product, get somewhere else. So our PSP customers have benefited from the best of our attention in the last 1.5 years. And now they can't have the best of them and then be flexible and not really meet their part of the bargain. We have added capacity for them. We prioritize them. We lost the other customers when we did not give any product. So I think this...

因此，我們選擇優先將其提供給 PSP 客戶，讓其他客戶離開，而不是獲得產品，而是去其他地方。因此，我們的 PSP 客戶受益於我們在過去 1.5 年的最大關注。現在他們不能擁有最好的，然後變得靈活，並沒有真正滿足他們的討價還價。我們為他們增加了容量。我們優先考慮它們。當我們沒有提供任何產品時，我們失去了其他客戶。所以我認為這...

I would say don't be fixated on it. This is our best demand. It's our best customers.

我想說不要執著於它。這是我們最好的要求。是我們最好的客戶。

Got it. And then just as my follow-up. So you gave sort of some view on consumption, and you called it end market demand. Does that include the inventory that's building at your customers?

知道了。然後就像我的後續行動一樣。所以你給出了一些關於消費的觀點，你稱之為終端市場需求。這是否包括為您的客戶建立的庫存？

When you talk about end market demand, is that net of the inventory build at your customers? Or is that inclusive of the inventory build at your customers?

當您談論終端市場需求時，您的客戶是否會增加庫存？還是包括您客戶的庫存構建？

So when we speak of end market demand, it is everything that we ship to our direct customers, which is no different than GAAP revenue. And then the other difference is that roughly 50% of our business that goes through distribution, it represents the distributors' sell-through to their customers rather than what we're selling into the distribution channel.

因此，當我們談到終端市場需求時，就是我們運送給直接客戶的所有東西，這與 GAAP 收入沒有什麼不同。然後另一個區別是，我們大約 50% 的業務是通過分銷進行的，它代表了分銷商對其客戶的銷售，而不是我們向分銷渠道銷售的產品。

We do not have any kind of view in terms of exactly what our customers are doing with inventory. We service 125,000 customers, and that's just not data that we have or is possible for us to track.

對於我們的客戶對庫存的確切操作，我們沒有任何看法。我們為 125,000 名客戶提供服務，而這並不是我們擁有或無法追踪的數據。

Yes. When we talk about potential inventory at customers, all we can see is what do they publicly report. But I can tell you that the level of expedites and customer escalations we're experiencing remain high, indicating the demand supplier imbalance for many customer situations.

是的。當我們談論客戶的潛在庫存時，我們所能看到的只是他們公開報告的內容。但我可以告訴你，我們正在經歷的加速和客戶升級的水平仍然很高，這表明在許多客戶情況下需求供應商不平衡。

Our next question comes from William Stein of Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 William Stein。

First, a little bit of an off-the-run question, and then I will have a follow-up. OpEx, I think you highlighted that it's below your target range as revenue continues to grow, and you're not spending as much as sort of you would normally target. Over what time frame should we anticipate your OpEx approaching your target percent of revenue?

首先是一個跑題，然後我會跟進。運營支出，我認為您強調它低於您的目標範圍，因為收入持續增長，而且您的支出沒有通常的目標那麼高。我們應該在什麼時間範圍內預計您的運營支出接近您的目標收入百分比？

It will be over many quarters. You can see in our guidance it's not happening in the December quarter. The hiring environment has been difficult. Perhaps we will do better as we go into 2023. So it'll be slow. Eric, do you want to say anything?

它將跨越多個季度。您可以在我們的指導中看到它不會在 12 月季度發生。招聘環境一直很艱難。也許進入 2023 年我們會做得更好。所以它會很慢。埃里克，你想說什麼嗎？

Yes. I mean it somewhat depends on what the revenue curve looks like out in time. Obviously, we're guiding for nice growth again in December. Ganesh has made comments about March being a growth quarter for us. So it's going to take us some time to catch up, Will.

是的。我的意思是這在一定程度上取決於收入曲線及時出現的情況。顯然，我們正在引導 12 月再次實現良好增長。 Ganesh 評論說 3 月是我們的增長季度。所以我們需要一些時間才能趕上，威爾。

Okay. And then I want to linger on the same topic that so many other people have hit on, but I want to ask it sort of a different way.

好的。然後我想停留在許多其他人已經提出的同一個話題上，但我想以一種不同的方式問它。

I understand the PSP is very high-quality backlog. You're not seeing many cancellation requests. Even if you took all the cancels, you'd still have this good guidance and the comments on March. What it doesn't so much address is what might happen in a couple quarters if more customers, either doing PSP or otherwise, come in and request a cancel or pushout.

我了解 PSP 是非常高質量的積壓。您沒有看到很多取消請求。即使你取消了所有的取消，你仍然會有這個很好的指導和三月份的評論。它沒有太多解決的是，如果更多的客戶（無論是使用 PSP 還是其他方式）進來並要求取消或推出，那麼可能會在幾個季度內發生什麼。

The question really is that this is one thing that has changed in -- maybe not the model, but in the way the company operates. Steve, in fact, you talk a lot about how you'd never use distribution as sort of a mechanism to, let's say, stuff -- let's call it stuffing the channel for a moment.

真正的問題是，這是一件事發生了變化——也許不是模型，而是公司的運作方式。史蒂夫，事實上，你說了很多關於你永遠不會使用分發作為一種機制的東西，比如說，東西——讓我們暫時稱它為填充渠道。

When you have to make a decision as to whether you force the customer to move up to an NCNR, that is remarkably similar to stuffing the channel in terms of at least the economic impact on your business. And I'm wondering how you're going to take that decision if you wind up in a position where more customers come to you to cancel, whether it's PSP or regular backlog, how you make this decision. On the one hand, I want to make them live up to their commitments because you highlighted all those reasons. On the other hand, if you do that, you know you're damaging future demand and pushing out a painful situation. How do you plan on managing that, balancing those 2 dynamics?

當您必須決定是否強制客戶升級到 NCNR 時，這與填充渠道非常相似，至少對您的業務產生經濟影響。我想知道如果你最終處於更多客戶來找你取消的位置，無論是 PSP 還是定期積壓，你將如何做出這個決定，你如何做出這個決定。一方面，我想讓他們履行承諾，因為你強調了所有這些原因。另一方面，如果你這樣做，你就會知道你正在破壞未來的需求並推動一個痛苦的局面。你打算如何管理它，平衡這兩種動態？

Well, this is not the first time we've had to deal with noncancelable backlog. It has been a part of our business for basically ever, right? It's just that the percentage of that has grown. We work with customers on what their requirements are, but you can't have an asymmetric agreement where heads, they win; and tails, we lose, right? You got to make sure that there are commitments.

好吧，這不是我們第一次不得不處理不可取消的積壓。它基本上一直是我們業務的一部分，對吧？只是其中的百分比有所增加。我們根據客戶的要求與客戶合作，但您不能達成不對稱的協議，只要有頭，他們就贏了；和尾巴，我們輸了，對吧？你必須確保有承諾。

This is why if you make sure that there's an understanding that there is a responsibility with placing that backlog, they will moderate the backlog they place on us. If they have no responsibility, then there is no reason why they wouldn't just give us much, much higher backlog than where they're at.

這就是為什麼如果您確保了解放置該積壓工作有責任，他們將緩和他們放置在我們身上的積壓工作。如果他們沒有責任，那麼他們就沒有理由不給我們比他們所在的地方更多、更高的積壓工作。

So we think, again, going back to the quality of the backlog, it comes because it has responsibility that goes with it. Outside of that situation by situation with the customer, we're in this to be in business. But we're not in this to say it's all risk-free or all the risk is on our side in what we go with it.

因此，我們再次認為，回到積壓的質量，它的出現是因為它有與之相伴的責任。除了與客戶的情況不同之外，我們在此開展業務。但我們並不是說這一切都是沒有風險的，或者在我們採取的行動中，所有的風險都在我們這邊。

And by the way, by and large, that's how customers have expected this thing as well. They're not pushing on us to say, "Hey, I didn't mean that it should be PSP, and I now want something else different from what we had agreed to." So I don't see that as big of an issue. And by the way, if we didn't have PSP, the situation we have is far, far higher backlog and far bigger of a fall from that high backlog we have.

順便說一句，總的來說，這也是客戶對這件事的期望。他們並沒有強迫我們說，“嘿，我不是說它應該是 PSP，我現在想要一些不同於我們同意的東西。”所以我不認為這是一個大問題。順便說一句，如果我們沒有 PSP，我們所面臨的情況是遠遠高得多的積壓，而且比我們擁有的高積壓的下降幅度要大得多。

Yes. I think one other thing I'd like to point out, Will, because you're talking several quarters out in time beyond March, right? A customer that's on PSP and has 12 months of backlog with us, every week or every month that goes by, they make a decision in terms of what the next backlog that they're going to put on us out in time. They could put 0 backlog. They could put 50%. They could put 120% of what it was the month before.

是的。我想我想指出的另一件事，威爾，因為你說的是三月之後的幾個季度，對吧？一個使用 PSP 並在我們這裡有 12 個月積壓的客戶，每週或每個月過去，他們都會根據下一個積壓的內容做出決定，他們將及時向我們提供什麼。他們可以把 0 積壓。他們可以投入 50%。他們可以投入前一個月的 120%。

And so these fears of rising interest rates and recession, this is not new when we woke up today. This has been happening now for several months. And I think customers gradually adjust that over time. But as Ganesh has said, PSP is still a large percentage of our backlog. We still have tons of unsupported. And it's been a program that I believe has worked very well, not only for the customer but for Microchip.

所以這些對利率上升和經濟衰退的擔憂，當我們今天醒來時，這並不是什麼新鮮事。這種情況已經發生了幾個月。我認為客戶會隨著時間的推移逐漸調整。但正如 Ganesh 所說，PSP 仍然是我們積壓的很大一部分。我們仍然有大量不受支持的。我認為這是一個運行良好的程序，不僅對客戶而且對 Microchip 而言。

I think the gist of your question is that lots and lots of PSP customers want to cancel, and we're just now letting them do it. And that is not the case. There is a negligible amount.

我認為你的問題的要點是很多 PSP 客戶想要取消，而我們現在才讓他們這樣做。事實並非如此。有一個微不足道的數量。

I mean, at any point in time, you have customers that want to move small things around. The PSP backlog is not going to see the behavior that you're talking about. We're not inundated with PSP customers wanting to cancel the backlog and we're not canceling it. And that's not happening next quarter. It's not happening quarter after. I think that's the issue. That's your assumption that it would happen.

我的意思是，在任何時候，您都有客戶想要移動小東西。 PSP 積壓不會看到您正在談論的行為。我們沒有被想要取消積壓的 PSP 客戶淹沒，我們也不會取消它。下個季度不會發生這種情況。它不會在四分之一之後發生。我認為這就是問題所在。這是你的假設，它會發生。

We don't think we will face that because the PSP backlog is very high quality, and customers can easily start to adjust it by taking the foot off the gas pedal every month when they place the order 12 months out.

我們認為我們不會面臨這種情況，因為 PSP 積壓的質量非常高，客戶可以在 12 個月後每月下訂單時輕鬆地開始調整它。

Let me give me one more piece of data. We're making a big deal of cancellations. If you aggregate all the cancellation requests we have, it's 4.5% of our total backlog, and that includes PSP, non-PSP, and it will be dominated by non-PSP. It is a negligible part of the business, guys.

讓我再給我一個數據。我們正在大量取消訂單。如果你匯總我們所有的取消請求，它是我們總積壓的 4.5%，這包括 PSP、非 PSP，它將由非 PSP 主導。伙計們，這是業務中微不足道的一部分。

Next, we'll hear from Chris Danely of Citigroup.

接下來，我們將聽取花旗集團的 Chris Danely 的來信。

So I think someone asked you earlier about lead times, how they've gone up or gone down or how much -- and you said you really couldn't define that. You also said you still have some, I guess, quite a bit of business that's constrained or products that are constrained.

所以我想有人早些時候問過你關於交貨時間的問題，他們是如何上升或下降的，或者是多少——你說你真的無法定義。您還說您仍然有一些，我猜，相當多的業務受到限製或產品受到限制。

Is there any, like, I guess, metrics that you could give us that would talk about your percentage of products or percentage of business that is constrained or in shortage now versus 3 months ago and what you expect to be 3 months from now, just so we could, I guess, track the progress of that?

有沒有什麼，比如，我猜，你可以給我們的指標來談論你的產品百分比或現在受限或短缺的業務百分比與 3 個月前相比，以及你對 3 個月後的預期，只是所以我們可以，我猜，跟踪進度？

The best metric probably is what is the unsupported backlog exiting quarters. And I'm going to tell you, it's high. It's probably not healthy to be there, and we will work to improve that. And it is to improve the customer service and the customer experience with it. But we have still substantial constraints that we're working through, and it will take us many, many quarters to work through them.

最好的衡量標準可能是退出季度不受支持的積壓工作。我要告訴你，它很高。在那裡可能不健康，我們將努力改善這一點。這是為了改善客戶服務和客戶體驗。但是我們仍然面臨著巨大的限制，我們正在努力解決這些限制，我們需要很多很多方面來解決這些限制。

I don't know if Ganesh said that earlier, but our unsupported backlog leaving September quarter was another all-time high. So during the quarter, customer wanted more parts to be shipped in the September quarter that we couldn't ship, and the unsupported grew over the June quarter to another record.

我不知道 Ganesh 是否早些時候說過，但我們離開 9 月季度的不受支持的積壓是另一個歷史新高。因此，在本季度，客戶希望在 9 月季度發貨更多我們無法發貨的部件，而不受支持的數量在 6 月季度增長到另一個記錄。

So that doesn't mean in any way that customers are feeling that the lead times are coming in. I mean, we are broadly constrained almost everywhere. I mean, we've got daily escalation calls from multiple customers every day. So it hasn't even reached the peak. The unsupported hasn't even reached the peak and started dropping. It is still growing.

因此，這並不意味著客戶感覺到交貨時間即將到來。我的意思是，我們幾乎在任何地方都受到廣泛限制。我的意思是，我們每天都會接到來自多個客戶的升級電話。所以還沒有達到巔峰。不受支持的甚至還沒有達到頂峰並開始下降。它仍在增長。

Yes. That's what I was getting at is that's what it felt like. And then for my follow-up, so Steve, you've been through even more cycles than I have. If this continues, where the competitors keep taking numbers down and the recession gets worse and worse and your business gets better and better or gets through it, I mean, do you think it's possible for you guys to make it through a global recession and a downturn unscathed or relatively unscathed? And did you see anything during this quarter other than the unsupported backlog that made you feel any better or any worse about Microchip's ability to do that?

是的。這就是我所得到的，這就是它的感覺。然後對於我的後續行動，史蒂夫，你經歷的周期比我還多。如果這種情況繼續下去，競爭對手不斷減少數字，經濟衰退越來越嚴重，而你們的業務越來越好或度過難關，我的意思是，你們認為你們有可能度過全球經濟衰退和經濟衰退嗎？經濟衰退毫髮無損還是相對毫髮無損？除了不受支持的積壓工作之外，您在本季度是否看到任何讓您對 Microchip 的能力感到更好或更糟的事情？

Well, you have to define what unscaled meant. As Ganesh talked about it in his remarks that we're not seeing anything today, but we see the macro weakening and what all the other companies are saying. And what we are seeing is if macro ever catches up to us, then we have steps in place to create a soft landing. When you say unscaled, we're not saying we're going to keep growing 22% per year forever like we have been. But we will soft-land the plane because of all the attributes Ganesh went over.

好吧，您必須定義未縮放的含義。正如 Ganesh 在他的講話中談到的那樣，我們今天沒有看到任何東西，但我們看到宏觀減弱以及所有其他公司在說什麼。我們所看到的是，如果宏觀趕上我們，那麼我們就有了實現軟著陸的步驟。當您說未按比例計算時，我們並不是說我們將像以往那樣永遠保持每年 22% 的增長。但由於 Ganesh 的所有屬性，我們將使飛機軟著陸。

And then next, we'll hear from Toshiya Hari of Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們將聽取高盛的 Toshiya Hari 的來信。

I was hoping you can talk a little bit about what you're seeing from a pricing perspective across your microcontroller and analog businesses. Your September quarter revenue was up 25% plus year-over-year. How much of that was pricing?

我希望您能從定價的角度談談您在微控制器和模擬業務中看到的情況。您的 9 月季度收入同比增長 25%。其中有多少是定價？

And then, Steve, when you were at our -- at our conference 1.5 months ago, you had hinted that pricing should be a tailwind in the early part of '23 as well given some of the conversations that you were having with your foundry suppliers. I'm curious if anything has changed since then. And then I have a quick follow-up.

然後，史蒂夫，當你在 1.5 個月前參加我們的會議時，你曾暗示定價應該在 23 年初成為順風，同時考慮到你與代工供應商的一些對話.我很好奇從那以後是否有任何變化。然後我有一個快速跟進。

So pricing is stable. There are no price adjustments that are being made that are affecting where the quarterly results are. We did make an adjustment at the beginning of this year or the early part of this year, and that's where it's at. I don't think we have any price adjustment plans into 2023 that are in the offing. And so pricing is really not a factor today in terms of what we're executing, where we're going in terms of our new designs and where we are in terms of our business.

所以定價是穩定的。沒有影響季度業績的價格調整。我們確實在今年年初或今年年初進行了調整，這就是它的所在。我認為我們在 2023 年之前沒有任何即將進行的價格調整計劃。因此，就我們正在執行的內容、就我們的新設計而言，我們將走向何方以及就我們的業務而言，我們現在所處的位置而言，定價實際上並不是一個因素。

Got it. And then my follow-up, I guess this is a hypothetical, but given the visibility you have and given everything that you've said so far in the call, if your business in calendar '23 is, say, up 5% or flat or somewhere in that range, and most of your peers are down 10%, would it be fair to say that in a recovery phase in 2024, you undergrow your peers or you perhaps don't participate in that recovery? Or are you guys gaining permanent structural share across the analog and MC businesses?

知道了。然後我的後續行動，我想這是一個假設，但考慮到你的知名度以及到目前為止你在電話會議中所說的一切，如果你在日曆 '23 中的業務增長 5% 或持平或者在這個範圍內，你的大多數同行下降了 10%，公平地說，在 2024 年的複蘇階段，你的同行成長不足，或者你可能不參與復蘇？還是你們在模擬和 MC 業務中獲得了永久的結構性份額？

It's a hypothetical. We don't know what '24 is, but we believe we are gaining share. We are executing the total system solutions strategy we have. We are focused on the fastest-growing markets, and we are seeing substantial wins that are creating the tailwinds for us.

這是一個假設。我們不知道 '24 是什麼，但我們相信我們正在獲得份額。我們正在執行我們擁有的整體系統解決方案戰略。我們專注於增長最快的市場，我們看到了巨大的勝利，為我們創造了順風。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Channel or just the inventories, still 40% below prepandemic levels. Your own inventories are kind of at the low end of your target range. So obviously, clear signs that demand remains strong. Given your capacity expansion plans, looking at your demand profile and backlog, do you guys anticipate increasing inventories with your disti customers and moving towards the midpoint of your range on your own inventories over the next, call it, 2 to 3 quarters?

渠道或僅庫存，仍比大流行前水平低 40%。您自己的庫存處於目標範圍的低端。很明顯，有明顯跡象表明需求仍然強勁。鑑於您的產能擴張計劃，查看您的需求概況和積壓，你們是否預計您的 disti 客戶的庫存會增加，並在接下來的 2 到 3 個季度內向您自己的庫存範圍的中點移動？

So we actually grew quite a bit of inventory on our balance sheet in the September quarter, and you'll see just below our guidance table in our press release, we're expecting that to grow again this quarter. And in my prepared remarks, I kind of went through some of the reasons why that is happening as we're positioning the company for future growth.

因此，我們實際上在 9 月季度的資產負債表上增加了相當多的庫存，您會在我們的新聞稿中看到我們的指導表下方，我們預計本季度將再次增長。在我準備好的評論中，我談到了為什麼會發生這種情況的一些原因，因為我們正在為公司的未來發展定位。

In terms of distribution, distribution inventory stayed flat quarter-on-quarter at 19 days. And we think at some point in time, there will be some level of restocking in the distribution channel. That's going to vary by distributor and what -- how they manage the business. But in the meantime, with their inventory being relatively low, we feel that we need to have more inventory on our balance sheet to support the end customer needs. And so that's what we're doing. But really, we are now within our target range of inventory days that we provided to the Street back in our November Analyst Day. So we're managing it appropriately in a challenged supply environment, I would call it.

在分銷方面，分銷庫存與上一季度持平，為 19 天。我們認為，在某個時間點，分銷渠道會出現一定程度的補貨。這將因分銷商以及他們管理業務的方式而異。但與此同時，由於他們的庫存相對較低，我們認為我們需要在資產負債表上增加庫存來支持最終客戶的需求。這就是我們正在做的事情。但實際上，我們現在處於我們在 11 月分析師日向華爾街提供的庫存天數的目標範圍內。所以我們在一個充滿挑戰的供應環境中適當地管理它，我會這麼稱呼它。

Yes. And I know it's always somewhat complex to sift through end market demand trends because you've got such a broad portfolio of products, you're serving many different end markets. However, there is one segment where products are more easily tracked because they are very specific to that end market that's our rad-hard kind of high roll products that's your aerospace and defense business. I believe it's about 13% to 14% of your revenues, much higher mix versus your peers. It seems like activity around commercial space programs, new satellite [cancellations], defense spending all look strong for not just next year but the next several years. You guys are #1 in space, strong trend in defense. Like help us understand the visibility in A&D, growth trends and sustainability of this segment into a potentially weaker macroeconomic backdrop next year.

是的。而且我知道篩選終端市場需求趨勢總是有些複雜，因為您擁有如此廣泛的產品組合，您正在服務於許多不同的終端市場。但是，有一個部分的產品更容易跟踪，因為它們非常特定於最終市場，即我們的防輻射高輥產品，即您的航空航天和國防業務。我相信它大約佔您收入的 13% 到 14%，與同行相比要高得多。似乎圍繞商業太空計劃、新衛星 [取消]、國防開支的活動不僅在明年而且在未來幾年看起來都很強勁。你們在太空中排名第一，在防守方面有很強的趨勢。就像幫助我們了解 A&D 的可見性、增長趨勢和該細分市場的可持續性，以及明年可能疲軟的宏觀經濟背景。

Sure. So aerospace and defense, I think, is about 9%, 10% of our revenue. It is performing extremely well for many reasons. And you missed commercial aviation. Commercial aviation is going through a strong resurgence. And so all 3 elements, space, defense and commercial aviation, are all doing strongly in the current environment. And they are generally less influenced by shorter-term macroeconomic conditions.

當然。因此，我認為航空航天和國防約占我們收入的 9%、10%。由於許多原因，它的表現非常好。你錯過了商業航空。商業航空正在經歷強勁的複蘇。因此，太空、國防和商業航空這三個要素在當前環境下都表現強勁。而且它們通常較少受到短期宏觀經濟條件的影響。

Next, we'll hear from Matt Ramsay of Cowen.

接下來，我們將聽取 Cowen 的 Matt Ramsay 的來信。

I think Toshiya took my earlier question on ASP assumptions, so I'll just ask one. It's around the consideration of investing in the 300-millimeter fab. I guess there's 2 parts to the question.

我認為 Toshiya 回答了我之前關於 ASP 假設的問題，所以我只問一個。這是圍繞投資300毫米晶圓廠的考慮。我想這個問題有兩個部分。

Ganesh, as you consider that, what would be just, I don't know, ballpark off the top of your head, focus of which process nodes mix in a facility like that if you consider it. And then second, is this something that you guys felt you needed to do but didn't really feel like you could fund all of it until the CHIPS Act got passed, and now that's a reaction to potential funding from governments? Or was this a decision that you were probably going to need to make anyway.

Ganesh，當您考慮到這一點時，我不知道，如果您考慮一下，將關注哪些流程節點混合在這樣的設施中。其次，你們覺得這是不是你們覺得需要做的事情，但在 CHIPS 法案通過之前，你們真的覺得你們不能資助所有這些，現在這是對政府潛在資助的反應？或者這是一個你可能需要做出的決定。

So firstly, on process technologies, those are still being worked. But largely, we use our 300-millimeter foundries today on process technologies that are 90-nanometer and smaller in size. And the workhorse technologies for trailing edge tend to be at 40, 65, 90, in that general neighborhood. But those -- we wouldn't limit ourselves just to that. Again, I want you to think of this as this is a 20-, 25-year look at what we would do with a 300-millimeter fab.

因此，首先，在工藝技術方面，這些仍在工作中。但在很大程度上，我們今天在 90 納米或更小的工藝技術上使用我們的 300 毫米代工廠。而後緣的主力技術往往是 40、65、90，在那個一般附近。但是那些——我們不會僅限於此。再一次，我想讓你想到這一點，因為這是對 20 年、25 年的觀察，我們將用 300 毫米晶圓廠做什麼。

The reasoning for it is we have -- as our business has grown, the portion of our business that we do with 300-millimeter has also grown. And the investment in the trailing edge part of 300-millimeter technologies has not been there with many of our foundries at the level that we have wanted. And -- but it takes a certain scale to get there.

原因是我們有——隨著我們業務的增長，我們用 300 毫米做的業務部分也在增長。我們的許多代工廠在 300 毫米技術的後緣部分的投資並沒有達到我們想要的水平。而且——但它需要一定的規模才能到達那裡。

And if you had a full-boat fab that you needed to build, the way in which the breakeven points and the absorption points come about are different from when there is a fab that can be built with government funding and the investment tax credits and whatever local things come in. So clearly, that has changed the equation as to when does it make sense financially. But that's not the only reason why. We think trailing-edge 300-millimeter technology is going to have constraints for a long time to come, and a portion of that being within Microchip would allow us to better serve those markets.

如果你有一個需要建造的全船晶圓廠，那麼盈虧平衡點和吸收點的產生方式就不同於可以用政府資金和投資稅收抵免等方式建造的晶圓廠當地的東西進來了。很明顯，這已經改變了何時在財務上有意義的等式。但這不是唯一的原因。我們認為，在未來很長一段時間內，前沿 300 毫米技術都會受到限制，而其中一部分位於 Microchip 內部將使我們能夠更好地服務於這些市場。

Our next question comes from Joe Moore of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

If you look at your operating margins now, you're obviously much higher than you've been in prior cycles. It seems like a lot of that is secular. But like do you -- when you contemplate these soft-landing scenarios, do you expect your margins to sort of see the type of decline you've seen historically? Could we go back to prior troughs? Just how do -- I know some of your competitors have talked about a target margin on kind of a trough revenue level. Like how should we think about primarily gross margin leverage in a sort of weaker environment?

如果您現在查看您的營業利潤率，您顯然比之前的周期要高得多。似乎很多都是世俗的。但是像你一樣——當你考慮這些軟著陸的場景時，你是否期望你的利潤率會看到你在歷史上看到的下降類型？我們能回到之前的低谷嗎？怎麼做——我知道你的一些競爭對手已經談到了收入水平低谷的目標利潤率。就像我們應該如何考慮在一種較弱的環境中主要的毛利率槓桿？

Well, I'll give you a quick answer, and then Eric might want to elaborate more on it. Again, the best way to look at it is how have we performed over the last 15 years through the cycles. And you will see that, on those metrics, the gross and operating margin, from peak to trough across the cycle, about 200 basis points is the decline in that range, plus or minus 200, 300 basis points. And that's the way in which we manage the business. It's built into our DNA. It's built into our systems and processes. It's built into the soft landing that I described a quarter ago. Eric, do you want to add more to it?

好吧，我會給你一個快速的答案，然後 Eric 可能想詳細說明一下。同樣，看待它的最佳方式是我們在過去 15 年的周期中表現如何。你會看到，在這些指標上，毛利率和營業利潤率，從整個週期的峰值到低谷，大約 200 個基點是該範圍內的下降，正負 200、300 個基點。這就是我們管理業務的方式。它已融入我們的 DNA。它內置於我們的系統和流程中。它內置在我四分之一前描述的軟著陸中。埃里克，你想添加更多嗎？

Yes. I mean, obviously, we've continued to integrate acquisitions. We've got a different product mix than we've had historically. We feel really comfortable with the margin targets that we've set out for the Street, which we are above today, as you mentioned, on the operating margin side. Because the business has grown so well, we've got quite a bit of cushion. I would call it on our OpEx today with the level of bonuses that we're playing, variable comp that will allow us to adjust if need be, if the macro catches up with us at some point in time.

是的。我的意思是，顯然，我們一直在繼續整合收購。我們的產品組合與以往不同。我們對我們為華爾街設定的利潤率目標感到非常滿意，正如您所提到的，我們今天在營業利潤率方面高於該目標。因為業務發展得如此之好，我們有相當多的緩衝。我今天會在我們的運營支出上稱它為我們正在玩的獎金水平，如果宏觀在某個時間點趕上我們，如果需要，我們可以進行調整的可變薪酬。

So -- and we want to build inventory in our own factories. We think distributors will rebuild inventory. And so we don't want to give a specific number. But again, the range that we've provided on a long-term basis, we think that we can operate within that. And obviously, we're operating above it today.

所以 - 我們想在我們自己的工廠建立庫存。我們認為分銷商將重建庫存。所以我們不想給出一個具體的數字。但同樣，我們長期提供的範圍，我們認為我們可以在此範圍內運作。顯然，我們今天在它上面運行。

And the mix of the business we have has end markets that are far more durable in terms of how they perform and what gross margin these products and solutions we bring are able to command. And it's not just silicon. It's silicon. It's software. It's systems. It's services. These are very, very sticky applications and markets that are not prone to perhaps what a pure consumer or mobile phone type of market may have.

我們擁有的業務組合擁有更加持久的終端市場，這些市場的表現以及我們帶來的這些產品和解決方案能夠控制的毛利率。它不僅僅是矽。是矽。是軟件。是系統。是服務。這些是非常、非常具有粘性的應用程序和市場，它們可能不像純粹的消費者或手機類型的市場那樣容易出現。

Tore Svanberg of Stifel.

Stifel的Tore Svanberg。

Congrats on all the record metrics. I have a sort of a different angle on the pricing question, and it's kind of more related to ASPs. So if you look at the 25.7% growth year-over-year that you are reporting this quarter, how much of that is coming from higher ASPs, meaning selling more value in the form of your total system type solutions?

祝賀所有記錄指標。我對定價問題有不同的看法，它與 ASP 更相關。因此，如果您查看本季度報告的 25.7% 的同比增長，其中有多少來自更高的 ASP，這意味著以您的整體系統類型解決方案的形式銷售更多價值？

There's not an easy way to break that up. Clearly, with constrained capacity, we will direct them and have been directing it to the highest-value products that we're producing. We're shipping more units. So there's a lot of the growth that's coming from capacity and additions that we have made in it. But I certainly don't have a good way to parse out what comes from mix and pricing versus what comes from units alone.

沒有一個簡單的方法可以打破它。顯然，在產能有限的情況下，我們將引導他們並一直將其引導到我們正在生產的最高價值產品上。我們正在運送更多單位。所以有很多增長來自我們在其中所做的容量和增加。但我當然沒有很好的方法來分析來自混合和定價的內容與單獨來自單位的內容。

That's fair. And then I had a question on the inventory, whether it's internal or channel. So obviously, the channel, it sounds like you're going to sort of keep that a little bit constrained going forward. But is there maybe a secular trend here where basically, maybe the right number is actually around 20 days of channel inventory and then your own inventories could maybe even exceed the high end of the range, which is 150.

這還算公平。然後我對庫存有疑問，無論是內部還是渠道。所以很明顯，這個頻道，聽起來你會有點限制前進。但是這裡是否存在長期趨勢，基本上，也許正確的數字實際上是大約 20 天的渠道庫存，然後您自己的庫存甚至可能超過該範圍的高端，即 150。

No, we don't dictate what channel inventory needs to be. The channel decides what inventory do they need. In some cases, we may be constrained in shipping it to them, and they may not be able to get what they want to, but channel has history of what does it take to support the mix of product, the customer expectations that are there. And we are at the low end of what they have historically done and whether they're going to be at 19 or 20 or 25 or 30 is really a decision they're going to make. We don't tell them what to do in terms of inventory.

不，我們不規定需要什麼樣的渠道庫存。渠道決定他們需要什麼庫存。在某些情況下，我們可能會限制將其運送給他們，他們可能無法獲得他們想要的東西，但渠道具有支持產品組合和客戶期望所需的歷史。我們處於他們歷史上所做的事情的低端，他們是否會在 19 歲、20 歲、25 歲或 30 歲時真的是他們要做的決定。我們不會告訴他們在庫存方面該做什麼。

Ultimately, they need to stock the level of inventory appropriate to support their customers, and they'll need to find the right level of that as supply becomes less constrained than it is today. We have a lot of unsupported backlog to our distributors today that we need to catch up on.

最終，他們需要儲存適合支持客戶的庫存水平，並且隨著供應變得不像現在這樣受到限制，他們需要找到合適的庫存水平。我們今天有很多不受支持的積壓給我們的分銷商，我們需要趕上。

Well, for the last year, it doesn't really matter what distributor wanted. We just don't have the product to start them, so that has not been a choice. And we don't think there's a choice for well into 2023. But someday, when we have parts available to start distribution, at that point in time, it will matter what they want to do. Right now, it doesn't matter.

好吧，在過去的一年裡，經銷商想要什麼並不重要。我們只是沒有啟動它們的產品，所以這不是一個選擇。而且我們認為在 2023 年之前沒有選擇。但是有一天，當我們有可用的零件開始分發時，到那時，他們想做什麼就很重要了。現在，沒關係。

Yes, I guess my point was more maybe you have a better read on sell-through than they do, so that's fair.

是的，我想我的觀點可能是你比他們更了解銷售情況，所以這是公平的。

Next we'll hear from Raji Gill of Needham & Company.

接下來我們將聽取 Needham & Company 的 Raji Gill 的來信。

Congratulations on good results in this very uncertain environment. Just one question on gross margins. They continue to be at kind of record levels. I'm wondering kind of what are the -- have been the drivers of the margin so far? And how do we think about those drivers going through into next year?

祝賀在這個非常不確定的環境中取得好成績。只有一個關於毛利率的問題。他們繼續處於創紀錄的水平。我想知道到目前為止，利潤率的驅動因素是什麼？我們如何看待那些進入明年的司機？

Yes. Well, I think the biggest drivers are going to be factory utilization, right? I mean, we have more backlog than we know what to do with at this point in time. And so the factories are running harder than they've ever been before. We're using every piece of equipment that we have to produce as much product as we can. And so with that, our planning and operations team are able to schedule things and batch runs and try to produce as much product as they can.

是的。嗯，我認為最大的驅動因素將是工廠利用率，對吧？我的意思是，我們現在的積壓工作比我們知道的要多得多。因此，工廠比以往任何時候都更加努力地運轉。我們正在使用我們必須生產的每一台設備來盡可能多地生產產品。因此，我們的計劃和運營團隊能夠安排事情和批量運行，並嘗試生產盡可能多的產品。

So that's a big thing. And then I think the other thing that we talked about in the responses to some of the earlier questions is just our product mix and how that's changed over time has continued to enhance the gross margin.

所以這是一件大事。然後我認為我們在回答之前的一些問題時談到的另一件事就是我們的產品組合，隨著時間的推移，這種變化如何繼續提高毛利率。

Next, we here from Vijay Rakesh of Mizuho.

接下來，我們來自瑞穗的 Vijay Rakesh。

Just a quick question here. As you look at -- you talked about your own inventory and the China inventory. I was just wondering if you could give us some color on what the OEM inventories look like because I think you're starting to see some of the OEMs like Stellantis and BMW this morning talk about worries about caution about a slowing down of sales with macro and rates, et cetera? And then I have a follow-up.

這裡只是一個簡單的問題。正如你所看到的——你談到了你自己的庫存和中國的庫存。我只是想知道您是否可以給我們一些關於 OEM 庫存情況的顏色，因為我認為您今天早上開始看到一些 OEM，如 Stellantis 和 BMW 談論對宏觀銷售放緩的擔憂和費率等等？然後我有一個跟進。

So OEMs don't tell us what inventory they carry, right? Now what we can gauge is how are they interacting with us on how they see business, how they're -- how many escalation issues are we still working? And we don't see an abatement in terms of what they're trying to do. And OEMs also have not only a requirement to sell to their demand, they're also trying to replenish their dealers and what the dealers' inventory needs to be. They're trying to replenish what the rental car inventory needs to be out there.

所以原始設備製造商不會告訴我們他們有什麼庫存，對吧？現在我們可以衡量的是，他們如何與我們互動，了解他們對業務的看法、他們的情況——我們仍在處理多少升級問題？而且我們沒有看到他們正在嘗試做的事情有所減少。原始設備製造商不僅要求按需求銷售，他們還試圖補充經銷商以及經銷商的庫存需要多少。他們正試圖補充租車庫存所需的東西。

So demand is still running strong, and we don't see for our products an inventory issue that they're bringing to us to go solve. If anything, we're working more shortages and constraints for it with them.

因此，需求仍然強勁，我們認為我們的產品不會出現庫存問題，他們要我們去解決。如果有的話，我們正在與他們一起解決更多的短缺和限制。

Got it. And on the last quick question on the pricing side. I know you talked about many different products, but obviously, a lot of the microcontrollers are pretty long-life products there. So just wondering if you took a step back and looked at 2021 or '22 as you exit '22 here for some of the long-life products that you guys have, how has that pricing change trended over the last 2 years?

知道了。關於定價方面的最後一個快速問題。我知道您談到了許多不同的產品，但顯然，很多微控制器都是相當長壽命的產品。因此，只是想知道您是否退後一步，看看 2021 年或 22 年，當您在這裡退出 22 年以了解你們擁有的一些長壽命產品時，過去 2 年定價變化的趨勢如何？

So pricing over the history of Microchip is a strategic exercise for a sole-sourced product that is proprietary from us. The only time when we have made a pricing adjustment that's been broad-based, is over the last 1 to 1.5 years when we had cost increases with a view towards covering the cost increases that we were subject to in the way we passed on margined up for that. So outside of that, pricing is not something we try to take advantage of when there are constraints, nor is pricing something that we give up on when there is extra supply.

因此，對 Microchip 的歷史定價是對我們專有的單一來源產品的一項戰略性活動。我們唯一一次進行了廣泛的定價調整，是在過去 1 到 1.5 年中，我們進行了成本增加，以期彌補我們以保證金方式傳遞的成本增加為了那個原因。因此，除此之外，定價不是我們在有限制時試圖利用的東西，也不是我們在有額外供應時放棄的東西。

And it appears there are no further questions at this time. I'll turn the call back over to our presenters for any additional or closing comments.

目前似乎沒有進一步的問題。我會將電話轉回給我們的演示者，以獲取任何其他或結束的評論。

Great. I want to thank everybody for hanging in there and despite some of the technical challenges. We appreciate the questions, and we look forward to seeing many of you and talking to many of you in the phone calls and conferences we have coming up. So thank you.

偉大的。儘管存在一些技術挑戰，但我要感謝大家堅持不懈。我們感謝這些問題，我們期待在即將召開的電話會議和會議中見到你們中的許多人並與你們中的許多人交談。所以謝謝。

That does conclude today's call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

這確實結束了今天的電話會議。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。