微晶片科技 (MCHP) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's second quarter fiscal year 2023 financial results conference call. Today's call is being recorded. And now at this time I'd like to turn the call over to Eric.

大家好，歡迎參加今天的2023財年第二季財務業績電話會議。今天的電話會議正在錄音中。現在，我想把電話交給Eric。

Thank you and good afternoon, everybody. Thank you for bearing with us. We had some conference call dial-in challenges that we've worked through now, so appreciate your patience with that.

謝謝大家，下午好。感謝大家的耐心等待。我們之前遇到了一些電話會議撥號問題，現在已經解決了，非常感謝大家的耐心等待。

During the course of this conference call, we will be making projections and other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company. We wish to caution you that such statements are predictions and that actual events or results may differ materially.

在本次電話會議中，我們將對未來事件或公司未來財務表現做出預測及其他前瞻性陳述。我們在此提醒您，此類陳述僅為預測，實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。

We refer you to our press releases of today as well as our recent filings with the SEC that identify important risk factors that may impact Microchip's business and results of operations.

請您參閱我們今天的新聞稿以及我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，其中列出了可能影響微晶片業務和經營績效的重要風險因素。

In attendance with me today are Ganesh Moorthy, Microchip's President and CEO; Steve Sanghi, Microchip's Executive Chair; and Sajid Daudi, Microchip's Head of Investor Relations. I will comment on our second quarter financial performance, Ganesh will then provide commentary on our results and discuss the current business environment as well as our guidance, and Steve will provide an update on our cash return strategy.

今天與我一同出席的還有 Microchip 總裁兼執行長 Ganesh Moorthy、Microchip 執行主席 Steve Sanghi 以及 Microchip 投資者關係主管 Sajid Daudi。我將對我們第二季的財務業績進行點評，Ganesh 隨後將對我們的業績進行點評，並討論當前的業務環境和我們的預期，Steve 將介紹我們現金回報策略的最新情況。

We will then be available to respond to specific investor and analyst questions. We are including information in our press release and on this conference call on various GAAP and non-GAAP measures. We have posted a full GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation on the Investor Relations page of our website at www.microchip.com and included reconciliation information in our press release, which we believe you will find useful when comparing our GAAP and non-GAAP results. We have also posted a summary of our outstanding debt and our leverage metrics on our website.

屆時，我們將解答投資人和分析師的具體問題。我們將在新聞稿和本次電話會議上發佈各種 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標的資訊。我們已在公司網站 www.microchip.com 的投資者關係頁面上發布了完整的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 對照表，並在新聞稿中提供了對照信息，相信您在比較 GAAP 和非 GAAP 業績時會發現這些信息很有用。我們也在網站上發布了未償債務和槓桿率指標的摘要。

I will now go through some of the operating results, including net sales, gross margin and operating expenses. Other than net sales, I will be referring to these results on a non-GAAP basis, which is based on expenses prior to the effects of our acquisition activities, share-based compensation and certain other adjustments as described in our press release.

現在我將介紹一些營運業績，包括淨銷售額、毛利率和營運費用。除淨銷售額外，我將以非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 為基礎，即扣除收購活動、股權激勵以及新聞稿中所述的某些其他調整的影響後的費用。

Net sales in the September quarter were $2.073 billion, which was up 5.6% sequentially. We have posted a summary of our GAAP net sales by product line and geography on our website for your reference. On a non-GAAP basis, gross margins were a record at 67.7%. Operating expenses were at 20.9%. And operating income was a record 46.9%.

9月當季淨銷售額為20.73億美元，季增5.6%。我們已在網站上發布了按產品線和地區劃分的GAAP淨銷售額摘要，供您參考。以非GAAP計算，毛利率創歷史新高，達67.7%。營運費用為20.9%。營運利潤創歷史新高，達46.9%。

Non-GAAP net income was a record $814.4 million. Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share was a record $1.46 and at the high end of our guidance range.

非公認會計準則淨利創紀錄地達到8.144億美元。非公認會計準則每股攤薄收益創紀錄地達到1.46美元，處於我們預期範圍的高點。

On a GAAP basis in the September quarter, gross margins were a record at 67.4%. Total operating expenses were $642.8 million and included acquisition intangible amortization of $167.5 million, special charges of $4.3 million, $3.2 million of acquisition-related and other costs and share-based compensation of $34.8 million.

以美國通用會計準則 (GAAP) 計算，9 月當季毛利率創歷史新高，達到 67.4%。總營運費用為 6.428 億美元，其中包括 1.675 億美元的收購無形資產攤銷、430 萬美元的特殊費用、320 萬美元的收購相關費用及其他費用，以及 3,480 萬美元的股權激勵費用。

GAAP net income was a record $546.2 million resulting in a record $0.98 in earnings per diluted share and was adversely impacted by a $2.1 million loss on debt settlement associated with our convertible debt refinancing activities.

以美國通用會計準則計算的淨收入達到創紀錄的 5.462 億美元，導致每股稀釋收益達到創紀錄的 0.98 美元，但受到與可轉換債務再融資活動相關的 210 萬美元債務清償損失的不利影響。

Our September quarter GAAP tax expense was impacted by a variety of factors, notably the tax expense recorded as a result of the capitalization of R&D expenses for tax purposes.

我們 9 月季度的 GAAP 稅費受到多種因素的影響，尤其是因稅務目的而將研發費用資本化而記錄的稅費。

Our non-GAAP cash tax rate was 11.2% in the September quarter. We now expect our non-GAAP cash tax rate for fiscal '23 to be between 9.8% and 10.8%, exclusive of the transition tax, any potential tax associated with restructuring the Microsemi operations into the Microchip global structure and any tax audit settlements related to taxes accrued in prior fiscal years. This is modestly higher than our previous forecast as we have refined our tax calculations for the year.

截至9月當季，我們的非公認會計準則現金稅率為11.2%。我們目前預計，2023財年的非公認會計準則現金稅率將在9.8%至10.8%之間，此稅率不包括過渡稅、將美高森美業務重組至美高森美全球架構所產生的任何潛在稅款，以及與前幾財年累計稅款相關的任何稅務審計和解。由於我們已優化了本年度的稅費計算，此稅率略高於我們先前的預測。

A reminder of what we communicated last quarter. Our fiscal '23 cash tax rate is higher than our fiscal '22 tax rate for a variety of factors, including lower availability of tax attributes such as net operating losses and tax credits, as well as the impact of current tax rules requiring the capitalization of R&D expenses for tax purposes. There appears to be some momentum for the tax rules requiring companies to capitalize R&D expenses to be pushed out or repealed. If this were to happen, we would anticipate about a 300 basis point favorable adjustment to Microchip's tax rate in fiscal year 2023.

回顧一下我們上個季度溝通的內容。我們23財年的現金稅率高於22財年的稅率，原因有很多，包括淨營運虧損和稅收抵免等稅務屬性的可得性較低，以及現行稅法要求將研發費用資本化以用於稅收目的的影響。目前看來，要求公司將研發費用資本化的稅法有被延後或廢除的趨勢。如果這種情況發生，我們預計2023財年微晶片的稅率將出現約300個基點的有利調整。

Our inventory balance at September 30, 2022, was $1.03 billion. We had 139 days of inventory at the end of the September quarter, which was up 12 days from the prior quarter's level. We have increased our raw materials inventory to protect our internal manufacturing supply lines. We are carrying higher work in progress to maximize the utilization of constrained equipment as well as to position ourselves to take advantage of new equipment installations, which will relieve bottlenecks.

截至2022年9月30日，我們的庫存餘額為10.3億美元。截至9月季末，我們的庫存週轉天數為139天，較上一季增加12天。我們增加了原料庫存，以保障內部製造供應鏈。我們正在增加在製品庫存，以最大限度地提高受限設備的利用率，並充分利用新設備的安裝，從而緩解瓶頸。

We are investing and building inventory for long-life, high-margin products whose manufacturing capacity is being end-of-lifed by our supply chain partners. We need to ensure that our supply lines can feed growth beyond what we expect in the December 2022 and March 2023 quarters, and our reported days of inventory is a backward-looking indicator. As gross margins rise, the effective days of inventory for the same physical inventory rises, and with every 100 basis points of gross margin growth, it creates approximately 3 incremental days of inventory.

我們正在投資和建立庫存，用於那些壽命長、利潤率高的產品，這些產品的生產能力正被我們的供應鏈合作夥伴逐步淘汰。我們需要確保我們的供應鏈能夠滿足2022年12月和2023年3月季度超出預期的成長，而我們報告的庫存天數是一個回顧性指標。隨著毛利率的上升，相同實體庫存的有效庫存天數也會上升，毛利率每成長100個基點，就會增加約3個庫存天數。

Inventory days at our distributors in the September quarter was at 19 days, which was flat to the prior quarter's level. With distribution inventory still being low, we will be carrying higher inventory at Microchip to ensure our customers can be served.

9月份季度，我們經銷商的庫存天數為19天，與上一季持平。由於分銷商庫存仍然較低，我們將在Microchip增加庫存，以確保為客戶提供服務。

In the September quarter, we repurchased $36.9 million of principal value of our 2025 and 2027 convertible subordinated notes for cash, and we also paid cash for the value of these bonds above the principal amount, which was an additional $60 million. We used cash generation during the quarter to fund the amount of the convertible debt repurchases, and we believe that these transactions will benefit stockholders by reducing share count dilution to the extent our stock price appreciates over time.

9月份季度，我們以現金回購了價值3690萬美元的2025年和2027年可轉換次級債券，此外，我們還以現金支付了超過本金部分的債券價值，即6000萬美元。我們利用本季產生的現金來支付可轉換債券回購的款項，我們相信，這些交易將透過減少股份稀釋（隨著我們股價的上漲）來使股東受益。

The principal amount of convertible debt on our balance sheet at September 30 was $766.6 million. This includes $665.5 million of convertible bonds maturing in November of 2024 with the cap call option in place that offsets any potential dilution from these convertibles up to stock prices of $116.15. At the beginning of calendar year 2020, Microchip had $4.481 billion of convertible bonds outstanding. So today, our overall capital structure is in a much better long-term position.

截至9月30日，我們資產負債表上的可轉換債務本金為7.666億美元。其中包括6.655億美元的可轉換債券，將於2024年11月到期，並設有上限看漲期權，可抵消這些可轉換債券可能造成的稀釋，最高不超過116.15美元的股價。 2020年初，微晶片公司未償還的可轉換債券餘額為44.81億美元。因此，目前我們的整體資本結構處於較佳的長期狀態。

Our cash flow from operating activities was $793.2 million in the September quarter. Our free cash flow was $682.9 million and 32.9% of net sales. As of September 30, our consolidated cash and total investment position was $306.8 million. We paid down $264.9 million of total debt in the September quarter, and our net debt was reduced by $192.6 million. Over the last 17 full quarters since we closed the Microsemi acquisition and incurred over $8 billion in debt to do so, we have paid down almost $5.5 billion of debt and continue to allocate substantially all our excess cash beyond dividends and stock buyback to bring down this debt.

9月季度，我們的經營活動現金流為7.932億美元。我們的自由現金流為6.829億美元，佔淨銷售額的32.9%。截至9月30日，我們的合併現金及總投資額為3.068億美元。 9月季度，我們償還了2.649億美元的總債務，淨債務減少了1.926億美元。自從完成對美高森美的收購以來，過去17個完整季度中，我們為此承擔了超過80億美元的債務，目前已償還近55億美元的債務，並將繼續將除股息和股票回購之外的幾乎所有剩餘現金用於償還債務。

Our adjusted EBITDA in the September quarter was a record at $1.056 billion and 50.9% of net sales. Our trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA was also a record at $3.814 billion. Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 1.84 at September 30, 2022, down from 2.05 at June 30, 2022, and down from 3.0 at September 30, 2021.

我們9月季度的調整後EBITDA達到創紀錄的10.56億美元，佔淨銷售額的50.9%。我們過去12個月的調整後EBITDA也創下了38.14億美元的紀錄。截至2022年9月30日，我們的淨債務與調整後EBITDA之比為1.84，低於2022年6月30日的2.05，也低於2021年9月30日的3.0。

Capital expenditures were $110.3 million in the September quarter. Our expectation for capital expenditures for fiscal year 2023 is between $500 million and $550 million as we continue to take actions to support the growth of our business and the ramp of our manufacturing operations.

9月份季度的資本支出為1.103億美元。我們預計2023財年的資本支出將在5億美元至5.5億美元之間，因為我們將繼續採取措施支持業務成長和製造業務的擴張。

We continue to prudently add capital equipment to maintain, grow and operate our internal manufacturing operations to support the expected long-term growth of our business. We expect these capital investments will bring gross margin improvement to our business and give us increased control over our production during periods of industry-wide constraints. Depreciation expense in the September quarter was $63.6 million.

我們將繼續審慎地增加資本設備，以維護、發展和營運我們的內部製造業務，從而支持我們業務的預期長期成長。我們預計這些資本投資將提高我們業務的毛利率，並在全行業受限的時期增強我們對生產的控制力。 9月份季度的折舊費用為6,360萬美元。

I will now turn it over to Ganesh to give his comments on the performance of the business in the September quarter as well as our guidance for the December quarter. Ganesh?

現在我將把時間交給 Ganesh，請他對 9 月季度的業務表現以及 12 月季度的預期做出評論。 Ganesh？

Thank you, Eric, and good afternoon, everyone. Our September quarter results continued to be strong, driven by our disciplined execution and our resilient end markets. Net sales grew 5.6% sequentially and 25.7% on a year-over-year basis to achieve another all-time record at $2.07 billion. While we don't normally provide information on a distribution sell-through basis, which we refer to as end market demand, we are providing information this quarter to give investors some insight into consumption. September quarter end market demand grew sequentially at about the same rate as our GAAP net sales, which is based on sell-in recognition. The September quarter was our eighth consecutive quarter where we achieved a net sales record and the first time we have ever crossed the $8 billion annualized net sales mark.

謝謝埃里克，大家下午好。由於我們嚴謹的執行力和富有韌性的終端市場，我們9月季度的業績持續強勁。淨銷售額季增5.6%，年增25.7%，再創歷史新高，達20.7億美元。我們通常不提供分銷銷售量（我們稱之為終端市場需求）的信息，但本季度我們提供這些信息，以便投資者了解消費情況。 9月季度的終端市場需求較上季成長與我們的GAAP淨銷售額（基於銷售確認）成長率大致相同。 9月份季度是我們連續第八個季度實現淨銷售額創紀錄，也是我們首次突破80億美元的年度淨銷售額大關。

Non-GAAP gross margin came in at the high end of our guidance at a record 67.7%, up 64 basis points from the June quarter and up 244 basis points from the year ago quarter. Non-GAAP operating margin came in well above the high end of our guidance at a record 46.9%, up 127 basis points from the June quarter and up 438 basis points from the year ago quarter.

非公認會計準則毛利率達到我們預期的高位，達到創紀錄的67.7%，較第二季上升64個基點，較去年同期上升244個基點。非公認會計準則營業利益率遠高於我們預期的高位，達到創紀錄的46.9%，較第二季上升127個基點，較去年同期上升438個基點。

Due to a rapid increase in net sales over the last 2 years, operating expenses at 20.9% were about 160 basis points below the low end of our long-term model range of 22.5% to 23.5%. Our long-term operating expense model will continue to guide our investment actions to drive the long-term growth, profitability and durability of our business.

由於過去兩年淨銷售額快速成長，營運費用為20.9%，比我們長期模型預測範圍的低端（22.5%至23.5%）低約160個基點。我們的長期營運費用模型將繼續指導我們的投資行動，以推動我們業務的長期成長、獲利能力和持久性。

Our consolidated non-GAAP diluted EPS was a record $1.46 per share, up 36.4% from the year ago quarter and at the high end of our guidance. Adjusted EBITDA at 50.9% of net sales and free cash flow at 32.9% of net sales were both very strong in the September quarter, continuing to demonstrate the robust cash generation capabilities of our business.

我們的合併非公認會計準則稀釋每股盈餘創下每股1.46美元的紀錄，較去年同期成長36.4%，達到我們預期的高點。調整後EBITDA佔淨銷售額的50.9%，自由現金流佔淨銷售額的32.9%，9月當季均表現強勁，持續展現出我們業務強勁的現金產生能力。

Net debt declined by $192.6 million, driving our net leverage ratio down to 1.84x exiting the September quarter. During the September quarter, we returned $413.3 million to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases, representing 57.5% of the prior quarter's free cash flow.

淨債務減少了1.926億美元，使我們的淨槓桿率在9月季結束時降至1.84倍。 9月季度，我們以股利和股票回購的方式向股東返還了4.133億美元，佔上一季自由現金流的57.5%。

I would like to take this opportunity to thank all our stakeholders who enabled us to achieve these outstanding results and especially thank the worldwide Microchip team for their continued efforts during challenging times to deliver results for our customers despite a large and persistent imbalance between supply and demand.

我想藉此機會感謝所有使我們取得這些優異成績的利益相關者，並特別感謝全球 Microchip 團隊在充滿挑戰的時期繼續努力，儘管供需之間持續存在巨大不平衡，但仍為我們的客戶提供成果。

Taking a look at our net sales from a product line perspective, our microcontroller net sales were sequentially up 11% as compared to the June quarter and set another all-time record. On a year-over-year basis, our September quarter microcontroller net sales were up 31.9%, and microcontrollers represented 56.9% of our net sales in the September quarter.

從產品線角度來看，我們的微控制器淨銷售額季增11%，再創歷史新高。與去年同期相比，9月微控制器淨銷售額成長了31.9%，微控制器佔9月淨銷售額的56.9%。

Our analog net sales sequentially decreased 1.3% in the September quarter. On a year-over-year basis, our September quarter analog net sales were up 16.6%, and analog represented 27.6% of our net sales in the September quarter.

我們的模擬業務淨銷售額在9月季減1.3%。與去年同期相比，9月季度模擬業務淨銷售額成長了16.6%，模擬業務佔9月份季度淨銷售額的27.6%。

As we mentioned last quarter, there are quarter-to-quarter differences in supply constraints, which can cause differences in net sales growth by product line. If you compare the trailing 4-quarter net sales growth performance versus the prior 4 quarters for our analog and microcontroller product lines, the growth rates are almost exactly the same. In the September quarter, our technology licensing net sales achieved a new record.

正如我們上季度所提到的，供應限制存在季度差異，這可能導致各產品線淨銷售額成長存在差異。如果將過去四季的淨銷售成長表現與前四季的類比和微控制器產品線進行比較，會發現成長率幾乎完全相同。 9月份季度，我們的技術授權淨銷售額創下了新高。

Business conditions continue to be strong as viewed through our internal indicators. Demand continued to be strong despite the capacity increases we have been implementing for some time now. As a result, our unsupported backlog, which represents backlog customers wanted shipped to them in the September quarter but which we could not deliver in the September quarter, climbed again. And we exited the September quarter with our highest unsupported backlog ever with unsupported backlog well above the actual net sales we achieved.

從我們的內部指標來看，業務狀況持續強勁。儘管我們一段時間以來一直在提升產能，但需求依然強勁。因此，我們未交付的積壓訂單（指客戶希望在九月季度發貨，但我們未能在九月季度交付的積壓訂單）再次攀升。九月季度結束時，我們未交付的積壓訂單量創歷史新高，遠高於我們實際實現的淨銷售額。

We are working hard to reduce our unsupported backlog to more manageable levels and expect to do so in the coming quarters but also expect to remain supply constrained through the rest of 2022 and well into 2023. We are, of course, cognizant of the weakening macro conditions resulting from rising inflation and interest rates and are monitoring such conditions closely.

我們正在努力將未得到支持的積壓訂單減少到更易於管理的水平，並預計在未來幾季實現這一目標，但同時預計在 2022 年剩餘時間和 2023 年很長一段時間內，供應仍將受到限制。當然，我們也意識到通膨和利率上升導致的宏觀環境疲軟，並且正在密切監測這種情況。

We're also aware that there is some inventory build at our customers as can be seen in their balance sheets. Some of this, we believe, is due to strategic buffer inventory builds arising from the learnings of the last 2 years, and some of this is due to the incomplete kits of the infamous golden screw effect. While we've seen an increase in requests to push out or cancel backlog, these requests remain a very small fraction of the very large backlog we have over multiple quarters, and hence, they have not had a material impact on our business.

我們也注意到，客戶的庫存增加，這可以從他們的資產負債表中看出。我們認為，部分原因是過去兩年經驗教訓的積累，以及戰略緩衝庫存的增加，部分原因是「黃金螺絲效應」的不完美。雖然我們看到推遲或取消積壓訂單的請求有所增加，但這些請求與我們多個季度以來的巨額積壓訂單相比仍然非常小，因此，它們並未對我們的業務造成重大影響。

We believe there are 3 reasons why Microchip's business is demonstrating more resilience in the midst of the weakness seen by some of the other semiconductor companies. First, on the demand side, the industrial, automotive, aerospace and defense, data center and communications infrastructure end markets, which make up 86% of our net sales, remain strong. The consumer end market, which is about 14% of our net sales, is experienced some weakness but is dominated by home appliances. And home appliances are more resilient than other consumer markets as a high percentage of demand comes from replacements for appliances which have broken down and must be replaced. Hence, our demand is quite durable because of the end market mix we have consciously gravitated towards over the years.

我們認為，在其他一些半導體公司疲軟的背景下，Microchip 的業務表現出更強的韌性有三個原因。首先，在需求方面，工業、汽車、航空航太和國防、資料中心和通訊基礎設施終端市場（占我們淨銷售額的 86%）仍然強勁。消費終端市場約占我們淨銷售額的 14%，雖然經歷了一些疲軟，但以家用電器為主。家用電器比其他消費市場更具韌性，因為很大一部分需求來自於更換損壞且必須更換的家電。因此，由於我們多年來有意識地傾向於終端市場組合，我們的需求相當持久。

Second, on the supply side, a vast majority of our products are built on specialized technologies requiring trailing edge capacity. This is the capacity that has been most constrained over the last 2 years, which still remains constrained and where there was the least opportunity to overship the consumption. And last but not least, our laser focus on organic growth through total system solutions and higher-growth megatrends for multiple years is giving us increased design win momentum and a resultant revenue tailwind.

其次，在供應方面，我們絕大多數產品都基於需要後緣產能的專用技術。這是過去兩年來產能最受限的領域，目前仍然如此，也是供應過剩機會最少的領域。最後，同樣重要的是，多年來，我們專注於透過整體系統解決方案和高成長大趨勢實現有機成長，這為我們帶來了設計贏利的強勁勢頭，並由此帶來了收入成長的順風。

Given the crosscurrents of strong internal business indicators and some uncertainty in the macro environment, we have modeled a range of potential scenarios and are closely monitoring various indicators, which should enable us to take deliberate action when we feel it's appropriate. Our goal is to deliver a soft landing for our business, if or when there is a softer -- a softer macro environment catches up with it. The playbook we shared with you last quarter for how we will deal with the macro slowdown remains unchanged.

鑑於強勁的內部業務指標與宏觀環境的不確定性交織在一起，我們模擬了一系列潛在情景，並密切監測各種指標，以便在我們認為適當的時候採取審慎的行動。我們的目標是，在宏觀環境趨於疲軟的情況下，實現業務軟著陸。我們在上個季度與大家分享的應對宏觀經濟放緩的策略保持不變。

If you study Microchip's peak-to-trough performance through the business cycles over the last 15 years, you will observe our robust and consistent cash generation, gross margin and operating margin results. The investor presentation posted on our IR website provides details about our performance through the business cycles. If or when there is a macro slowdown and that impacts our business, we expect our cash generation, gross margin and operating margin to once again demonstrate consistency and resiliency. This will help us continue to execute our long-term Microchip 3.0 strategy and help insulate it from whatever short-term market challenges there may be.

如果您研究 Microchip 過去 15 年在各個商業週期中從高峰到低谷的表現，您會發現我們強勁且持續的現金產生、毛利率和營業利潤率。我們投資者關係網站上發布的投資者簡報詳細介紹了我們在各個商業週期中的表現。如果宏觀經濟放緩並影響我們的業務，我們預期我們的現金產生、毛利率和營業利潤率將再次展現出一致性和韌性。這將有助於我們繼續執行 Microchip 3.0 的長期策略，並使其免受任何短期市場挑戰的影響。

While we are seeing some loosening of constraints in our supply chain, we continue to have several internal and external capacity corridors that remain very constrained. We are continuing with our carefully calibrated capacity increases seeking to serve what we believe is a long-term consumption growth. We believe our calibrated increase in capital spending will enable us to capitalize on growth opportunities, serve our customers better, increase our market share, improve our gross margins and give us more control over our destiny, especially for specialized trailing edge technologies.

雖然我們看到供應鏈中的限制有所放鬆，但我們內部和外部的幾條產能走廊仍然非常受限。我們將繼續謹慎地增加產能，以服務我們認為的長期消費成長。我們相信，我們適度增加的資本支出將使我們能夠抓住成長機會，更好地服務客戶，提高市場份額，改善毛利率，並讓我們更好地掌控自己的命運，尤其是在專業化前沿技術領域。

As you may have seen, Microchip has expressed its view that the recently approved CHIPS Act is good for the semiconductor industry and for America as it enables critical investments, which will even the global playing field for U.S. companies while being strategically important for our economic and national security.

正如大家所看到的，微晶片公司已經表達了其觀點，即最近批准的《CHIPS法案》對半導體產業和美國有利，因為它可以促進關鍵投資，這將為美國公司創造公平的全球競爭環境，同時對我們的經濟和國家安全具有戰略重要性。

For a very long time, an important component of our business strategy has been to own and operate a substantial portion of our manufacturing resources, including wafer fabrication facilities in the U.S. This strategy enables us to maintain a high level of manufacturing control, resulting in us being one of the lowest-cost producers in the embedded control industry. In light of this strategy and potential grant funding from the CHIPS Act, the investment tax credit provision as well as state and local grants and subsidies, Microchip is in the early stages of considering a 300-millimeter U.S.-based fab for specialized trailing-edge technologies.

長期以來，我們業務策略的一個重要組成部分是擁有並運作我們相當一部分的製造資源，包括位於美國的晶圓製造工廠。這項策略使我們能夠維持高水準的製造控制，從而使我們成為嵌入式控制行業成本最低的生產商之一。鑑於此策略以及《晶片和資訊處理系統法案》(CHIPS Act)、投資稅收抵免條款以及州和地方政府的撥款和補貼等潛在資助，Microchip 正處於初步考慮在美國建造一座 300 毫米晶圓廠，用於專門的後沿技術。

This fab project, if we decide to pursue it, would be intended to provide competitive growth capacity as well as geographic and geopolitical diversification. The availability of grants, subsidies and other incentives will all be important considerations in our analysis and will also help determine the location and timing for the fab.

如果我們決定推進該晶圓廠項目，其目標是提供具有競爭力的成長能力，並實現地理和地緣政治多元化。撥款、補貼和其他激勵措施的可用性都將是我們分析的重要考慮因素，也將有助於確定晶圓廠的選址和建造時間。

Now let's get into the guidance for the December quarter. Our backlog for the December quarter is strong, and we have more capacity improvements coming into effect. Taking all the factors we've discussed on the call today into consideration, we expect our net sales for the December quarter to be up between 3% and 5% sequentially. We also expect our net sales based on end market demand to grow at about the same growth as our GAAP net sales. And further, we expect sequential net sales growth again in the March quarter.

現在我們來看看12月季度的業績指引。我們12月季度的訂單積壓情況良好，而且還有更多產能提升措施即將生效。綜合考慮我們今天電話會議上討論的所有因素，我們預計12月季度的淨銷售額將環比增長3%至5%。我們也預期，基於終端市場需求的淨銷售額增幅將與GAAP淨銷售額的增幅大致相同。此外，我們預計3月季度的淨銷售額將再次環比成長。

At the midpoint of our net sales guidance, our year-over-year growth for the December quarter would be a strong 22.7%. We expect our non-GAAP gross margin to be between 67.8% and 68% of sales. We expect non-GAAP operating expenses to be between 20.7% and 20.9% of sales. We expect non-GAAP operating profit to be between 46.9% and 47.3% of sales. And we expect our non-GAAP diluted earnings per share to be between $1.54 per share and $1.56 per share. At the midpoint of our EPS guidance, our year-over-year growth for the December quarter would be a strong 29.2%.

根據我們淨銷售額指引的中位數，12月季度的年增率將強勁達到22.7%。我們預期非公認會計準則下的毛利率將介於銷售額的67.8%至68%之間。我們預計非公認會計準則下的營運費用將介於銷售額的20.7%至20.9%之間。我們預計非公認會計準則下的營運利潤將介於銷售額的46.9%至47.3%之間。我們預計非公認會計準則下的稀釋每股收益將在1.54美元至1.56美元之間。根據我們每股盈餘指引的中位數，12月季的年成長將強勁達到29.2%。

Finally, as you can see from our September quarter results and our December quarter guidance, our Microchip 3.0 strategy, which we launched a year ago, is firing on all cylinders as we continue to build and improve what we believe is one of the most diversified, defensible, high-growth, high-margin, high cash-generating businesses in the semiconductor industry.

最後，正如您從我們 9 月份季度業績和 12 月份季度指引中看到的那樣，我們一年前推出的 Microchip 3.0 戰略正在全力推進，我們將繼續構建和改進我們認為的半導體行業最多元化、最具防禦性、高增長、高利潤、高現金流的業務之一。

Let me now pass the baton to Steve to talk more about our cash return to shareholders. Steve?

現在，讓我把接力棒交給史蒂夫，讓他進一步談談我們向股東的現金回報。史蒂夫？

Thank you, Ganesh, and good afternoon, everyone. I would like to reflect on our financial results announced today and provide you further updates on our cash return strategy.

謝謝Ganesh，大家下午好。我想回顧我們今天公佈的財務業績，並進一步介紹我們的現金回報策略。

Reflecting on our financial results, I continue to be very proud of all employees of Microchip that have delivered another exceptional quarter while making new records in many respects, namely record net sales, record non-GAAP gross margin percentage, record non-GAAP operating margin percentage, record non-GAAP EPS and record adjusted EBITDA and all of that in a very challenging supply environment.

回顧我們的財務業績，我繼續為微晶片的所有員工感到非常自豪，他們又取得了一個出色的季度，同時在許多方面創造了新紀錄，即創紀錄的淨銷售額、創紀錄的非公認會計準則毛利率百分比、創紀錄的非公認會計準則營業利潤率百分比、創銷紀錄的非會計會計準則在創紀錄的調整後息

The Board of Directors announced an increase in the dividend of 9% from last quarter to $0.328 per share. This is an increase of 41.4% from the year ago quarter. During the last quarter, we purchased $247.2 million of our stock in the open market. We also paid out $166.1 million in dividends. Thus, the total cash return was $413.3 million. This amount was 57.5% of our actual free cash flow of $718.5 million during the June 2022 quarter. Our paydown of debt as well as record adjusted EBITDA drove down our net leverage at the end of September 2022 quarter to 1.84 from 2.05 at the end of June.

董事會宣布股利較上一季增加9%，至每股0.328美元。較去年同期成長41.4%。上一季度，我們在公開市場回購了2.472億美元的股票。我們還派發了1.661億美元的股息。因此，總現金回報為4.133億美元。這占我們2022年6月當季實際自由現金流7.185億美元的57.5%。我們償還了債務，加上創紀錄的調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤 (EBITDA)，使我們2022年9月當季的淨槓桿率從6月底的2.05降至1.84。

Ever since we achieved investment-grade rating for our debt in November of 2021 and pivoted to increasing our capital return to shareholders, we have returned $1.457 billion to shareholders through September 30, 2022, by a combination of dividends and share buybacks. In the December quarter, we will use the September quarter's actual free cash flow of $682.9 million and plan to return 60% or $409.7 million of that amount to our shareholders. Of this $409.7 million, the dividend is expected to be approximately $181 million. And the stock buyback is expected to be approximately $228.7 million.

自2021年11月我們的債務獲得投資等級評級並轉向增加股東資本回報以來，截至2022年9月30日，我們已透過股利和股票回購等方式向股東返還14.57億美元。在12月季度，我們將利用9月季度6.829億美元的實際自由現金流，並計劃將其中的60%（即4.097億美元）返還給股東。在這4.097億美元中，預計股利約為1.81億美元。預計股票回購約2.287億美元。

With that, operator, will you please poll for questions?

接線員，請問您可以調查問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Ambrish Srivastava of BMO has our first question.

（操作員指示）BMO 的 Ambrish Srivastava 提出了我們的第一個問題。

It's very appreciated that you put the investor slide deck where you talk about the playbook and the scenarios, and you've talked about the playbook. But I just can't help ask this question because weakness is rampant. It's everywhere. Many of your diversified peers have talked about weakness. Just kind of help us understand, the big concern I have is the longer the lead time stays stressed out, the higher the possibility of a harder landing. So just kind of help us understand how are you managing the "soft" landing that you have addressed a few times, but I just wanted to readdress that issue, if you could, please.

非常感謝您提供投資者幻燈片，其中討論了策略和各種情景，您也確實談到了策略。但我還是忍不住要問這個問題，因為疲軟現象普遍存在，而且無所不在。您的許多多元化同行都談到了疲軟現象。請您幫助我們理解，我最大的擔憂是，交付週期持續緊張的時間越長，硬著陸的可能性就越大。所以，請您幫助我們理解您是如何管理您多次提到的「軟」著陸的，但我想再次討論這個問題，如果可以的話，請您再說一遍。

Sure. So it starts with having high-quality backlog. And PSP being a high percentage of our backlog, well over 50%, is the highest-quality backlog. It is noncancelable. It's customers who have put time into making a commitment to be noncancelable, and that is always going to have far more thought that goes into it.

當然。所以首先要有高品質的待辦訂單。 PSP 在我們的待辦事項訂單中佔比很高，超過 50%，是品質最高的待辦訂單。它是不可取消的。客戶花了時間做出不可取消的承諾，這必然包含更深的思考。

It starts also with the supply side where we're making calibrated investments every quarter. We're not trying to go satisfy all the demand that's out there. And our lead times are long, but they've also, in specific areas, started to improve. And that helps with customers who have visibility out in time.

這也始於供應端，我們每季都會進行精準的投資。我們不會試著滿足所有的需求。我們的交貨週期雖然很長，但在某些特定領域也開始改善。這有助於客戶及時了解情況。

And then the end market exposure we have is another huge benefit to us, right? Most of these customers in these end markets are not in volatile markets where things can go up and down in short order. They're looking at the long term. They're looking at demand that is far more durable.

那麼，我們在終端市場的曝光度對我們來說也是一個巨大的優勢，對吧？這些終端市場中的大多數客戶並不處於市場波動劇烈、短期內可能出現波動的市場。他們著眼於長遠發展，關注的是更持久的需求。

And you put all that together, and we feel we have a model that is outperforming, and for those reasons, from a market standpoint, supply standpoint, and what we have done for ourselves in terms of total system solutions and the mega trends we're focused on and the design-in activity that we have pursued.

把所有這些放在一起，我們覺得我們有一個表現優異的模型，出於這些原因，從市場角度、供應角度，以及我們在整個系統解決方案和我們關注的大趨勢以及我們所追求的設計活動方面為自己所做的工作來看。

Okay. Just a quick follow-up. Where are the lead times now on a -- and I know the product line is very diverse, but the way you characterize it, what percent of lead times are -- have come in versus staying at 52-plus weeks?

好的。我簡單跟進一下。現在產品的交付週期是怎麼樣的？我知道我們的產品線非常多樣化，但您描述的情況是，交付週期縮短了多少百分比？相比之前維持在52週以上？

The lead times are all over the place. We have some lead times which are as low as 4 to 8 weeks. We have a lot of them which are at 26 to 52 weeks. It's corridor by corridor, product by product, where the constraints are, right? We go to work every day trying to improve it. And as long as supply improves, we're able to do that. Demand remains still strong.

交貨週期很不穩定。有些交貨週期短至4到8週，很多長達26到52週。每個產品線、每個產品都有各自的限制條件，對吧？我們每天都在努力改進。只要供應改善，我們就能做到。需求依然強勁。

So there's not a single number I can give you or a single percentage that I can say, "Hey, this is what the lead times are at." But most importantly, it's not just the lead times. It's also how strong the demand is. And you can see with some of the end market data that we provide you the information on the growth, right? The end market growth is keeping pace with what we're shipping in to -- on a GAAP basis.

所以我無法給出一個具體的數字或百分比，讓我告訴你：「嘿，這就是交貨週期。」但最重要的是，不僅僅是交貨週期，還有需求的強勁程度。從我們提供的一些終端市場數據中，你可以看到成長情況，對吧？終端市場的成長與我們的出貨量保持同步—基於公認會計準則 (GAAP)。

Next, we'll hear from Vivek Arya of Bank of America Securities.

接下來，我們來聽聽美國銀行證券公司的維韋克·阿里亞 (Vivek Arya) 的演講。

Thanks for taking my questions. For the first one, it's very interesting you're considering a 300-millimeter fab. I was wondering what is driving that decision? What kind of CapEx will it require? Will it have any impact on your dividend or buyback philosophy? And does it mean you will bring back some of what you're giving to external foundries inside the company? Just any more color on the 300-millimeter fab. I appreciate it's probably still in early stages of discussion.

感謝您回答我的問題。首先，您考慮建造一座300毫米晶圓廠，這很有趣。我想知道是什麼促使您做出這個決定？它需要多少資本支出？這會對您的股利或回購理念產生什麼影響嗎？這是否意味著您會把一部分給予外部代工廠的資金帶回公司內部？關於300毫米晶圓廠，您能再透露一些細節嗎？我知道這可能還處於討論的早期階段。

Yes. So you should look at it as it's a very strategic thought process and decision for us. It's something we think about over a 20-year-plus time frame of what it will do for us. Not unlike how when we bought our Gresham fab just about 20 years ago, right? It was a long-term investment that we made.

是的。所以你應該把它看作是我們非常有戰略意義的思考過程和決策。我們會用20多年的時間框架來思考它能為我們帶來什麼。這和我們20年前收購格雷沙姆工廠的時候很像，對吧？那是我們所做的一項長期投資。

We have many processes that are at 300 millimeters that are candidates. We have some specific ones we would look at as the early ones we bring in. But I wouldn't look at it as necessarily just bringing all the stuff inside as much as, as we grow, we would have additional places where it can grow. This investment will happen over multiple years. It will be largely within the range of the CapEx that we have provided and that we do not expect it to have either an impact on our dividend or our share buyback or anything else with where we're at.

我們有許多300毫米的工藝可供替代。我們有一些特定的工藝，我們會優先考慮引入。但我並不認為這必然意味著把所有東西都引入進來，隨著我們的發展，我們會有更多可以發展的地方。這項投資將持續數年。它基本上在我們提供的資本支出範圍內，我們預計它不會對我們的股利、股票回購或我們目前狀況下的其他任何事情產生影響。

And for my follow-up, I think, Ganesh, you mentioned that one reason that you might be seeing the strength is some customers are building some buffer inventory. I'm curious how far along do you think they are in that process? And does it just pull forward their demand from other quarters? Because I think what everyone is trying to get a sense for is that in most prior downturns, Microchip was always the first one to signal when the macro conditions weakened. This time conditions are weakening. Every one of your competitors is saying that yet you're not seeing it. So what has changed versus your analog industrial peers? I can understand the consumer part, but what's different versus your peers who are also exposed to the same automotive industrial type markets. Are you guys still there?

接下來，Ganesh，我想問一下，您提到您看到強勁表現的一個原因可能是一些客戶正在建立緩衝庫存。我很好奇，您認為他們目前進展到什麼程度了？這是否會提前拉動其他方面的需求？因為我認為大家都想了解的是，在之前大多數的經濟衰退中，Microchip 總是第一個發出宏觀經濟環境減弱的訊號。而這一次，宏觀環境正在減弱。您的所有競爭對手都在表達這種訊號，但您卻沒有註意到。那麼，與模擬工業領域的同業相比，你們的市場發生了哪些變化？我能理解消費性電子領域的情況，但與同樣面向汽車工業市場的同業相比，你們的市場有什麼不同？你們現在還在嗎？

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Please remain on the line while we reconnect our presenters. You may proceed.

我們正在重新連接主持人，請保持通話。您可以繼續。

We're back. Vivek, if you're still on, we didn't get the entirety of your question. Would you repeat your question, please?

我們回來了。 Vivek，如果你還在，我們還沒聽完你的問題。請再問一次好嗎？

Yes. So basically, what I asked, Ganesh, was that you mentioned customers are building buffer inventory. I was just wondering how far along they are in that process. And in general, if you contrast Microchip today versus in prior downturns, right, when you had a somewhat similar mix of products, the company was always the first to see the downturn, but you're not seeing it now. So I was curious what is the difference between the old Microchip versus the new Microchip.

是的。 Ganesh，我問的基本上是，您提到客戶正在建立緩衝庫存。我只是想知道他們在這個過程中進展到了什麼程度。總的來說，如果將現在的Microchip與以往的經濟低迷時期進行對比，對吧？當時的產品組合比較相似，Microchip總是先感受到經濟低迷，但現在卻沒有。所以我很好奇，老Microchip和新Microchip有什麼不同。

Sure. So let me answer the second one first. If you look at the old Microchip, we had more exposure to markets that perhaps are more volatile, right? We didn't have the same aerospace and defense, data center infrastructure. We weren't as high in industrial and automotive. And those are far more durable, right? We had a much higher consumer exposure if you go back 10 years or the financial crisis in that time frame. So that has changed to where we can see the customer and their end market demand as being far more durable today than it was in history.

當然。那我先回答第二個問題。如果你回顧以前的微晶片，你會發現我們更接觸那些波動性更大的市場，對吧？我們當時沒有像現在這樣在航空航太、國防和資料中心基礎設施投入。我們在工業和汽車領域的投入也不那麼高。而這些領域要耐用得多，對吧？如果回顧10年前，或者說是金融危機期間，我們在消費者市場的投資要高得多。所以情況已經發生了變化，我們可以看到，如今客戶及其終端市場的需求比歷史上任何時候都更加耐用。

On your first question about what about the buffer. I think the amount that's being built is small because we're not able to ship, right? I mean, we're constrained in our ability to service all this backlog that is unsupported. But anecdotally, are there going to be some customers who are building in? Yes, we're sure there is some of that. But we still think it's small. And mostly, it is in the markets where there's a very large multiplier for the OEM's end product as compared to the value of the semiconductors that they're carrying.

關於你的第一個問題，關於緩衝的問題。我認為生產量很小，因為我們無法發貨，對吧？我的意思是，我們服務所有未得到支援的積壓訂單的能力有限。但據傳聞，會不會有一些客戶加入生產？是的，我們確信有一些。但我們仍然認為數量很小。而且，主要集中在那些OEM最終產品與其所持有的半導體價值相比具有巨大乘數的市場。

Christopher Rolland, Susquehanna.

克里斯多福羅蘭 (Christopher Rolland)，薩斯奎漢納。

I guess my first one is for either Steve or Ganesh. So you had confidence enough to provide growth into March, which is pretty incredible in this environment. Is this -- do you think you have this confidence and this visibility because of your kind of tough stance on your NCNR policy? Is it perhaps you're looking to channel inventories and keeping those tight? Is there some other difference here operationally or that kind of affects your confidence versus others out there? Is there something you're doing different?

我想我的第一個問題想問史蒂夫或加內什。所以，你們有足夠的信心在3月份實現成長，這在目前的環境下是相當不可思議的。你認為你們擁有這種信心和這種預見性，是因為你們對NCNR政策採取了強硬立場嗎？是不是因為你們正在考慮疏導庫存，並保持庫存緊張？在營運方面，你們與其他公司相比，是否存在其他差異，或者說這些差異會影響你們的信心？你們的做法有什麼不同嗎？

So firstly, we have confidence both on the demand side as well as the improving supply that we're making. But let me put it in perspective, right?

首先，我們對需求端以及我們正在改善的供應端都充滿信心。不過，讓我客觀地解釋一下，好嗎？

Even if we accepted 100% of all the cancellation and pushout requests of noncancelable backlog, this factor alone would not have changed our September quarter results, our December quarter guidance, and we would remain poised to grow sequentially again in March. So don't assume that it's the noncancelability that is somehow propping us up.

即使我們100%接受了所有不可取消訂單的取消和延期請求，單憑這一點也無法改變我們9月份季度的業績和12月份季度的業績預期，我們3月份的業績仍將保持環比增長。所以，不要以為是不可取消訂單支撐了我們的業績。

Great. Steve, you've talked before about industry capacity being tight for -- and us not having enough as an industry moving forward. I think there's probably been some cancellations in terms of equipment and stuff like that but would love an update here. You -- how you feel about that? Are you even more strong in that belief? And is that what underpins the 300-millimeter thought process as well?

太好了。史蒂夫，你之前說過，產業產能緊張——而且我們這個產業的發展空間還不夠大。我覺得可能有一些設備採購之類的取消了，但我希望你能在這裡更新。你對此有何感想？你是不是更加堅定了這種想法？這也是你300毫米發展思維的基礎嗎？

Right. So it began 1.5 years ago with capacity being constrained at all the nodes, trailing edge, leading edge and the middle of the way. What has happened in the last few quarters is with the personal computers and cell phones, which are significant consumers of semiconductor and mostly semiconductors on the bleeding edge of technology processors and very high-end chips in the cellular phone.

是的。所以，這種情況始於一年半前，當時所有節點的產能都受到限制，包括後緣、前緣和中間環節。過去幾個季度，個人電腦和手機領域的情況也發生了變化，它們是半導體的重要消費者，而且主要是技術最前沿的半導體，例如手機中的處理器和高端晶片。

With the production in that market, the leading -- bleeding edge capacity now is really no longer constrained. You have seen dramatic downside guidance by a lot of the very leading-edge people. So today, if you wanted a 7-nanometer, 10-nanometer 14-nanometer capacity, you can have everything you need. But the trailing-edge capacity continues to be extremely constrained.

隨著該市場的投產，前沿製程的產能如今已不再受到限制。你已經看到許多非常前沿的廠商大幅下調了預期。所以，今天，如果你想要7奈米、10奈米或14奈米的產能，你就能得到你想要的一切。但後沿製程的產能仍極為受限。

On trailing edge, we built some inside, and we also bought some from the foundries, and we're constrained on both. Inside, we haven't been able to get all the equipment we wanted. Most equipment that was even scheduled to be delivered got pushed out by many months, sometimes many quarters because the equipment supplier wasn't able to get semiconductors for their parts. So the inside products that we've done inside remain constrained on many different corridors. And the capacity we buy outside is really very similar. The trailing edge capacity remains constrained, and we currently believe will remain constrained well into 2023.

在後緣工藝方面，我們內部生產了一些，也從代工廠購買了一些，但兩者都受到限制。內部製程方面，我們無法取得所有需要的設備。大多數原定交付的設備都被推遲了好幾個月，有時甚至好幾個季度，因為設備供應商無法獲得用於其零件的半導體。因此，我們在內部生產的產品仍然受到許多不同管道的限制。我們外部採購的產能也非常相似。後緣製程的產能仍受到限制，我們目前認為這種情況將持續到2023年。

I would add one more thing, right? I think on 300-millimeter, where -- if we started on a fab tomorrow, it's 4-plus years away before that fab is starting to ramp. So these are not decisions we make in a single cycle. We think through these across cycles on a long-term secular growth basis and what our position is and what we want our capabilities to be at in time.

我還要補充一點，對吧？我認為就300毫米而言——如果我們明天開始建造一家晶圓廠，那麼這家晶圓廠要等到4年多才能開始量產。所以，這些決定不是我們在一個週期內所做的。我們會從長期成長的角度，跨週期地思考這些問題，思考我們的定位，以及我們希望我們的能力達到什麼程度。

And on the prior question, we were talking about backlog and why we're so resilient and in the prior cycle that we used to be the first one to see this and why we're not seeing it today. I think I wanted to add a comment -- a couple of comments. One that Ganesh mentioned, which is a dramatically different end market mix we have today than when you used to call the canary in the coal mine.

關於先前的問題，我們談到了訂單積壓，以及為什麼我們如此有韌性，在之前的周期中，我們曾經是第一個看到這種情況的人，但為什麼今天我們卻沒有看到。我想補充一點——幾則評論。 Ganesh 提到的一點是，我們今天的終端市場組合與過去預測「煤礦裡的金絲雀」時截然不同。

And secondly, I think we want to keep emphasizing that PSP backlog is a very high-quality backlog. When a customer has to commit 12 months and, in some cases, 18 months and longer noncancelable, nonreschedulable backlog, there is a lot more thought that goes into it. And it's not the junior purchasing manager who places the backlog. It goes up for approval. So it's a much, much higher-quality backlog. And people don't just double order it thinking that they would cancel it because it's noncancelable. They don't double order it thinking that Microchip would let them change the rules, and we'll let them cancel it.

其次，我想我們要不斷強調的是，PSP 待辦訂單是一種非常高品質的待辦訂單。當客戶需要提交 12 個月，在某些情況下甚至 18 個月或更長時間的不可取消、不可重新安排的待辦訂單時，需要更深入的思考。而且，下單的不是初級採購經理，而是待批准的待辦事項訂單。因此，PSP 待辦訂單的品質要高得多。人們不會因為訂單不可取消而重複下單，然後想著取消訂單。他們不會因為 Microchip 會允許他們更改規則，然後我們也會允許他們取消訂單而重複下訂單。

So that backlog is very high quality. We've gotten very small number of scattered requests here and there. And as Ganesh mentioned, if we were to take all of them for cancellation, it wouldn't change anything. It would not change our September, December or March. It's just a minuscule percentage. It really means nothing almost. So take that into account.

所以，積壓訂單的品質非常高。我們收到的零散請求非常少。正如Ganesh所提到的，如果我們把所有訂單都取消，也不會有任何改變。這不會影響我們9月、12月或3月的訂單。這只是一個很小的比例。這幾乎沒有任何意義。所以要考慮到這一點。

We've heard from a lot of investors and analysts that think PSP is some sort of accident to happen because people are building inventory, and we're not letting them cancel it, and the fall would be even harder. I think that thinking is not correct.

許多投資人和分析師認為，PSP 的出現只是一場意外，因為人們正在囤積庫存，而我們不允許他們取消庫存，這樣一來，庫存下降的幅度會更大。我認為這種想法是錯誤的。

Next, we'll hear from Timothy Arcuri of UBS.

接下來，我們來聽聽瑞銀的蒂莫西·阿庫裡 (Timothy Arcuri) 的發言。

You mentioned PSP is more than half of backlog, but can you talk about how much of the September revenue is moving inside of PSP? And maybe, Steve, I know that you just made some comments about some requests for changes within PSP. It sounds like they're still pretty small. But I guess can you also just double click on the comment you just made because PSP doesn't really change demand. I mean, to a certain degree, you just put product to customers that might not need it because they committed to it 6 to 12 months ago. So can you just kind of talk through that and then maybe answer the question about how much revenue is moving inside of PSP.

你提到PSP佔了積壓訂單的一半以上，你能談談9月份有多少收入流向了PSP嗎？史蒂夫，我知道你剛才提到了一些關於PSP內部變更的要求。聽起來這些要求仍然很小。但我想你能不能再雙擊一下你剛才的評論，因為PSP其實並沒有改變需求。我的意思是，在某種程度上，你只是把產品賣給了那些可能不需要它的客戶，因為他們在6到12個月前就承諾了。所以，你能不能先簡單聊聊這個問題，然後再回答一下有多少收入流向了PSP的問題。

So firstly, in a given quarter, by the time we get to that quarter, PSP is an overwhelming percentage of what we ship in that quarter. That's what customers who place backlog back in time, receive priority for it, expect. And that's what we give them. And so further out in time, there is more space, and new backlog can come in and fill it out. But near term, like what just happened in September or what is going to happen in December, has a very, very high percentage of it that is PSP backlog that is being fulfilled.

首先，在某個季度，到我們進入該季度時，PSP訂單占我們該季度出貨量的絕大部分。這正是那些提前提交訂單並獲得優先訂單的客戶所期望的。我們也正是這樣做的。因此，隨著時間推移，會有更多空間，新的訂單可以填補空缺。但就短期而言，例如9月剛完成的訂單，或是12月即將完成的訂單，PSP訂單佔非常高。

Let me reiterate the point Steve made and which I made a little bit earlier on. PSP backlog is the highest-quality backlog out there. We make noncancelable commitments to our suppliers, and we don't make them lightly because there is a financial commitment that is required to have enough scrutiny.

讓我重申一下史蒂夫和我之前提到的觀點。 PSP待辦訂單是目前品質最高的待辦訂單。我們對供應商做出不可撤銷的承諾，而且我們不會輕易做出這些承諾，因為財務承諾需要經過充分的審查。

Similarly, our customers have significant scrutiny when they're trying to make commitments. They don't try to get excess capacity ordered from us. They, in fact, will try to undershoot so that they can actually hit it. So I want you to take from this that PSP backlog is the highest-quality backlog. We have far more cancellations and requests on non-PSP, but PSP backlog is very high quality.

同樣，我們的客戶在做出承諾時也會非常謹慎。他們不會試圖向我們訂購超額產能。事實上，他們會試圖降低產能，以便真正達到目標。所以，我希望大家從中明白，PSP 的待辦訂單是品質最高的。雖然非 PSP 的取消訂單和訂單請求要多得多，但 PSP 的待辦事項訂單品質非常高。

And even outside PSP, I want to note that our standard cancellation window is 90 days. So when we enter a quarter, really, everything that's on books for the quarter is noncancelable, whether it's PSP or not.

即使在PSP之外，我想指出的是，我們的標準取消期限是90天。所以，當我們進入一個季度時，實際上，該季度所有已預訂的合約都是不可取消的，無論是否是PSP。

You should also think that when we took the PSP backlog and for the last 1.5 years, in the middle of extreme constraints, we made a choice to ship to the PSP customers and not ship to the non-PSP customers. All the non-PSP customers are not low-quality customers. Some of them are very good customers, but their business is such that they cannot make a 1-year commitment, so they were non-PSP customers. They got very little product.

你也應該想想，當我們處理PSP訂單積壓問題時，在過去一年半里，在極度受限的情況下，我們選擇只向PSP用戶發貨，而不向非PSP用戶發貨。並非所有非PSP用戶都是低品質客戶。其中一些是非常好的客戶，但他們的業務狀況讓他們無法做出一年的承諾，所以他們成為了非PSP用戶。他們拿到的產品非常少。

So we made a choice to prioritize giving it to PSP customers and let the other customers go, not get product, get somewhere else. So our PSP customers have benefited from the best of our attention in the last 1.5 years. And now they can't have the best of them and then be flexible and not really meet their part of the bargain. We have added capacity for them. We prioritize them. We lost the other customers when we did not give any product. So I think this...

因此，我們決定優先考慮PSP客戶，而讓其他客戶無法獲得產品，轉而去其他地方。因此，在過去一年半的時間裡，我們的PSP客戶受益匪淺。現在，他們不能只顧著享受最好的服務，卻又靈活變通，最終無法真正履行自己的承諾。我們為他們增加了產能。我們優先考慮他們。如果我們不提供任何產品，其他客戶就流失了。所以我認為這…

I would say don't be fixated on it. This is our best demand. It's our best customers.

我想說，別糾結於此。這是我們最好的需求，也是我們最好的客戶。

Got it. And then just as my follow-up. So you gave sort of some view on consumption, and you called it end market demand. Does that include the inventory that's building at your customers?

明白了。然後我接下來想問一下。您剛才談到了消費，並稱之為終端市場需求。這包括您客戶那裡正在累積的庫存嗎？

When you talk about end market demand, is that net of the inventory build at your customers? Or is that inclusive of the inventory build at your customers?

您說的終端市場需求，是扣除客戶庫存增加的部分嗎？還是包含客戶庫存增加的部分？

So when we speak of end market demand, it is everything that we ship to our direct customers, which is no different than GAAP revenue. And then the other difference is that roughly 50% of our business that goes through distribution, it represents the distributors' sell-through to their customers rather than what we're selling into the distribution channel.

所以，當我們談到終端市場需求時，指的是我們發給直接客戶的所有產品，這與GAAP收入沒什麼差別。另一個區別是，我們大約50%的業務是透過分銷管道完成的，這代表分銷商向其客戶銷售的產品，而不是我們自己銷售給分銷管道的產品。

We do not have any kind of view in terms of exactly what our customers are doing with inventory. We service 125,000 customers, and that's just not data that we have or is possible for us to track.

我們完全不了解客戶究竟該如何處理庫存。我們服務12.5萬客戶，這些數據我們既沒有，也不可能追蹤。

Yes. When we talk about potential inventory at customers, all we can see is what do they publicly report. But I can tell you that the level of expedites and customer escalations we're experiencing remain high, indicating the demand supplier imbalance for many customer situations.

是的。當我們談論客戶的潛在庫存時，我們所能看到的只是他們公開報告的內容。但我可以告訴你，我們遇到的加急和客戶升級的情況仍然很高，這表明在許多客戶情況下，需求和供應商之間存在不平衡。

Our next question comes from William Stein of Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 William Stein。

First, a little bit of an off-the-run question, and then I will have a follow-up. OpEx, I think you highlighted that it's below your target range as revenue continues to grow, and you're not spending as much as sort of you would normally target. Over what time frame should we anticipate your OpEx approaching your target percent of revenue?

首先，我想問一個比較臨時的問題，然後我會再問一個後續問題。關於營運支出，我記得您強調過，由於收入持續成長，營運支出低於目標範圍，而且您的支出也沒有達到通常的目標。我們預計您的營運支出會在什麼時間內接近收入佔比的目標？

It will be over many quarters. You can see in our guidance it's not happening in the December quarter. The hiring environment has been difficult. Perhaps we will do better as we go into 2023. So it'll be slow. Eric, do you want to say anything?

這會持續多個季度。您可以看到，我們的業績指引顯示，12月季不會出現這種情況。招聘環境一直很艱難。或許到2023年，我們會做得更好。所以，發展會比較緩慢。艾瑞克，您有什麼想說的嗎？

Yes. I mean it somewhat depends on what the revenue curve looks like out in time. Obviously, we're guiding for nice growth again in December. Ganesh has made comments about March being a growth quarter for us. So it's going to take us some time to catch up, Will.

是的。我的意思是，這在某種程度上取決於未來一段時間的收入曲線。顯然，我們預計12月將再次實現良好的成長。 Ganesh 曾表示，3月對我們來說是一個成長的季度。所以，威爾，我們還需要一些時間來趕上。

Okay. And then I want to linger on the same topic that so many other people have hit on, but I want to ask it sort of a different way.

好的。然後我想繼續聊聊這個很多人已經討論過的話題，但我想換個方式問。

I understand the PSP is very high-quality backlog. You're not seeing many cancellation requests. Even if you took all the cancels, you'd still have this good guidance and the comments on March. What it doesn't so much address is what might happen in a couple quarters if more customers, either doing PSP or otherwise, come in and request a cancel or pushout.

我知道PSP的積壓訂單品質很高。你看到的取消請求並不多。即使你把所有取消的訂單都處理掉，你仍然會得到如此好的業績指引和3月份的評論。但它沒有考慮到的是，如果幾個季度後有更多客戶（無論是使用PSP還是其他方式）進來並要求取消或延期，可能會發生什麼。

The question really is that this is one thing that has changed in -- maybe not the model, but in the way the company operates. Steve, in fact, you talk a lot about how you'd never use distribution as sort of a mechanism to, let's say, stuff -- let's call it stuffing the channel for a moment.

真正的問題是，這其中發生了變化——也許不是模式的變化，而是公司運作方式的變化。史蒂夫，事實上，你常說你永遠不會把分銷當作一種機制，比如說，塞滿通路。

When you have to make a decision as to whether you force the customer to move up to an NCNR, that is remarkably similar to stuffing the channel in terms of at least the economic impact on your business. And I'm wondering how you're going to take that decision if you wind up in a position where more customers come to you to cancel, whether it's PSP or regular backlog, how you make this decision. On the one hand, I want to make them live up to their commitments because you highlighted all those reasons. On the other hand, if you do that, you know you're damaging future demand and pushing out a painful situation. How do you plan on managing that, balancing those 2 dynamics?

當你必須決定是否強迫客戶升級到NCNR時，這至少在對業務的財務影響方面與塞滿管道非常相似。我想知道，如果最終有更多客戶來找你取消訂單，無論是PSP還是常規積壓訂單，你會如何做出這個決定？一方面，我希望他們履行承諾，因為你強調了所有這些原因。另一方面，如果你這樣做，你知道你會損害未來的需求，並加劇痛苦的局面。你打算如何管理這種情況，平衡這兩種動態？

Well, this is not the first time we've had to deal with noncancelable backlog. It has been a part of our business for basically ever, right? It's just that the percentage of that has grown. We work with customers on what their requirements are, but you can't have an asymmetric agreement where heads, they win; and tails, we lose, right? You got to make sure that there are commitments.

嗯，這已經不是我們第一次處理不可取消的積壓訂單了。這基本上一直是我們業務的一部分，對吧？只是佔比有所增長。我們會根據客戶的需求與他們合作，但你不能達成一種不對稱的協議，正面他們贏，反面我們輸，對吧？你必須確保雙方做出承諾。

This is why if you make sure that there's an understanding that there is a responsibility with placing that backlog, they will moderate the backlog they place on us. If they have no responsibility, then there is no reason why they wouldn't just give us much, much higher backlog than where they're at.

這就是為什麼，如果你確保大家理解安排積壓訂單的責任，他們就會適度減少給我們安排的積壓訂單。如果他們沒有責任，那麼他們沒有理由不給我們比現在高得多的積壓訂單。

So we think, again, going back to the quality of the backlog, it comes because it has responsibility that goes with it. Outside of that situation by situation with the customer, we're in this to be in business. But we're not in this to say it's all risk-free or all the risk is on our side in what we go with it.

所以，我們再次強調，回到待辦事項的品質問題上，我們認為，這是因為它承擔著相應的責任。除了與客戶的具體情況之外，我們開展業務也是為了開展業務。但我們並不是說這一切都沒有風險，或者說所有的風險都由我們承擔。

And by the way, by and large, that's how customers have expected this thing as well. They're not pushing on us to say, "Hey, I didn't mean that it should be PSP, and I now want something else different from what we had agreed to." So I don't see that as big of an issue. And by the way, if we didn't have PSP, the situation we have is far, far higher backlog and far bigger of a fall from that high backlog we have.

順便說一句，總的來說，客戶也對此抱有同樣的期望。他們不會催促我們說：「嘿，我的意思不是應該採用PSP，我現在想要一個與我們之前達成一致的方案不同的方案。」 所以我認為這不是什麼大問題。順便說一句，如果我們沒有PSP，我們現在的積壓訂單量會高得多，而訂單量下降幅度也會更大。

Yes. I think one other thing I'd like to point out, Will, because you're talking several quarters out in time beyond March, right? A customer that's on PSP and has 12 months of backlog with us, every week or every month that goes by, they make a decision in terms of what the next backlog that they're going to put on us out in time. They could put 0 backlog. They could put 50%. They could put 120% of what it was the month before.

是的。威爾，我想指出另一件事，因為你指的是三月之後的幾個季度，對吧？一個使用PSP的客戶，如果在我們這裡積壓了12個月的訂單，那麼他們每週或每月都會決定下一批訂單要及時交付給我們。他們可以交付0個訂單，也可以交付50%，甚至可能是上個月的120%。

And so these fears of rising interest rates and recession, this is not new when we woke up today. This has been happening now for several months. And I think customers gradually adjust that over time. But as Ganesh has said, PSP is still a large percentage of our backlog. We still have tons of unsupported. And it's been a program that I believe has worked very well, not only for the customer but for Microchip.

因此，這些對利率上升和經濟衰退的擔憂，在我們今天醒來時並不新鮮。這種情況已經持續了幾個月。我認為客戶會隨著時間的推移而逐漸適應。但正如Ganesh所說，PSP仍然占我們積壓訂單的很大一部分。我們仍然有大量未得到支持的訂單。我相信這個項目非常有效，不僅對客戶如此，對Microchip也是如此。

I think the gist of your question is that lots and lots of PSP customers want to cancel, and we're just now letting them do it. And that is not the case. There is a negligible amount.

我認為你問題的重點是，很多PSP用戶想取消訂閱，而我們現在才允許他們取消。但事實並非如此。取消訂閱的用戶數量微乎其微。

I mean, at any point in time, you have customers that want to move small things around. The PSP backlog is not going to see the behavior that you're talking about. We're not inundated with PSP customers wanting to cancel the backlog and we're not canceling it. And that's not happening next quarter. It's not happening quarter after. I think that's the issue. That's your assumption that it would happen.

我的意思是，在任何時候，都有客戶想要轉移一些小東西。 PSP 積壓訂單不會出現你所說的那種行為。我們並沒有被想要取消積壓訂單的 PSP 客戶淹沒，我們也不會取消訂單。這種情況不會在下個季度發生。也不會在下個季度發生。我認為這就是問題所在。你以為這種情況會發生。

We don't think we will face that because the PSP backlog is very high quality, and customers can easily start to adjust it by taking the foot off the gas pedal every month when they place the order 12 months out.

我們認為我們不會面臨這種情況，因為 PSP 積壓的品質非常高，而且客戶可以在 12 個月後下訂單時每月鬆開油門，輕鬆地開始調整它。

Let me give me one more piece of data. We're making a big deal of cancellations. If you aggregate all the cancellation requests we have, it's 4.5% of our total backlog, and that includes PSP, non-PSP, and it will be dominated by non-PSP. It is a negligible part of the business, guys.

我再給你一個數據。我們的取消訂單量很大。如果把所有取消訂單的請求加起來，占我們積壓訂單總量的4.5%，這其中包括PSP訂單和非PSP訂單，而且非PSP訂單將占主導地位。夥計們，這部分業務量微不足道。

Next, we'll hear from Chris Danely of Citigroup.

接下來，我們來聽聽花旗集團的 Chris Danely 的演講。

So I think someone asked you earlier about lead times, how they've gone up or gone down or how much -- and you said you really couldn't define that. You also said you still have some, I guess, quite a bit of business that's constrained or products that are constrained.

我記得之前有人問過你關於交付週期的問題，例如它是怎麼增加或減少的，或者減少了多少——你說你真的無法定義這個問題。你還說，我猜你仍然有一些業務或產品受到限制。

Is there any, like, I guess, metrics that you could give us that would talk about your percentage of products or percentage of business that is constrained or in shortage now versus 3 months ago and what you expect to be 3 months from now, just so we could, I guess, track the progress of that?

我想，您能否提供一些指標，說明與 3 個月前相比，現在受限或短缺的產品百分比或業務百分比，以及您預計 3 個月後的情況，這樣我們就可以追蹤進展情況了？

The best metric probably is what is the unsupported backlog exiting quarters. And I'm going to tell you, it's high. It's probably not healthy to be there, and we will work to improve that. And it is to improve the customer service and the customer experience with it. But we have still substantial constraints that we're working through, and it will take us many, many quarters to work through them.

最好的衡量指標可能是每個季度有多少未支持的積壓訂單。我要告訴你，這個數字很高。這可能不太健康，我們會努力改善這種情況。這是為了改善客戶服務和客戶體驗。但我們仍然面臨一些重大限制因素，需要花費很多很多個季度才能解決。

I don't know if Ganesh said that earlier, but our unsupported backlog leaving September quarter was another all-time high. So during the quarter, customer wanted more parts to be shipped in the September quarter that we couldn't ship, and the unsupported grew over the June quarter to another record.

我不知道Ganesh之前是否說過，但我們9月季度未支援的積壓訂單量再創新高。因此，在本季度，客戶希望在9月季度出貨更多我們無法出貨的零件，導致6月季度未支援的積壓訂單量再創新高。

So that doesn't mean in any way that customers are feeling that the lead times are coming in. I mean, we are broadly constrained almost everywhere. I mean, we've got daily escalation calls from multiple customers every day. So it hasn't even reached the peak. The unsupported hasn't even reached the peak and started dropping. It is still growing.

所以這並不意味著客戶感覺到交付週期正在縮短。我的意思是，我們幾乎在所有方面都受到了廣泛的限制。我的意思是，我們每天都會接到多個客戶的升級電話。所以它甚至還沒有達到峰值。未獲得支援的訂單甚至還沒有達到高峰就開始下降了。它仍在增長。

Yes. That's what I was getting at is that's what it felt like. And then for my follow-up, so Steve, you've been through even more cycles than I have. If this continues, where the competitors keep taking numbers down and the recession gets worse and worse and your business gets better and better or gets through it, I mean, do you think it's possible for you guys to make it through a global recession and a downturn unscathed or relatively unscathed? And did you see anything during this quarter other than the unsupported backlog that made you feel any better or any worse about Microchip's ability to do that?

是的。我想說的就是這種感覺。接下來我想問的是，史蒂夫，你經歷的週期比我還要多。如果這種情況持續下去，競爭對手的業績不斷下滑，經濟衰退越來越嚴重，而你的業務卻越來越好，或者說挺過來了，我的意思是，你認為你們有可能毫髮無損地或相對毫髮無損地度過全球經濟衰退和低迷時期嗎？除了未得到支援的積壓訂單之外，在本季度，你還看到什麼讓你對微晶片的應對能力感到改善或惡化了嗎？

Well, you have to define what unscaled meant. As Ganesh talked about it in his remarks that we're not seeing anything today, but we see the macro weakening and what all the other companies are saying. And what we are seeing is if macro ever catches up to us, then we have steps in place to create a soft landing. When you say unscaled, we're not saying we're going to keep growing 22% per year forever like we have been. But we will soft-land the plane because of all the attributes Ganesh went over.

嗯，你必須定義「非規模化」的意思。正如Ganesh在他的演講中提到的，我們今天沒有看到任何變化，但我們看到了宏觀經濟的疲軟，以及所有其他公司都在談論的話題。而我們所看到的是，如果宏觀經濟趕上我們，那麼我們已經採取措施實現軟著陸。你說的“非規模化”，並不是說我們會像以前一樣永遠保持每年22%的成長率。但由於Ganesh提到的所有因素，我們將實現軟著陸。

And then next, we'll hear from Toshiya Hari of Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們來聽聽高盛的 Toshiya Hari 的演講。

I was hoping you can talk a little bit about what you're seeing from a pricing perspective across your microcontroller and analog businesses. Your September quarter revenue was up 25% plus year-over-year. How much of that was pricing?

我希望您能從定價角度談談微控制器和模擬業務的現狀。貴公司9月季度的營收年增了25%以上。其中有多少是定價貢獻的？

And then, Steve, when you were at our -- at our conference 1.5 months ago, you had hinted that pricing should be a tailwind in the early part of '23 as well given some of the conversations that you were having with your foundry suppliers. I'm curious if anything has changed since then. And then I have a quick follow-up.

史蒂夫，一個半月前你參加我們的會議時，你曾暗示，考慮到你與代工供應商的一些溝通，2023年初定價應該會成為利好因素。我很好奇從那時起情況是否發生了變化。然後我快速跟進。

So pricing is stable. There are no price adjustments that are being made that are affecting where the quarterly results are. We did make an adjustment at the beginning of this year or the early part of this year, and that's where it's at. I don't think we have any price adjustment plans into 2023 that are in the offing. And so pricing is really not a factor today in terms of what we're executing, where we're going in terms of our new designs and where we are in terms of our business.

所以價格是穩定的。目前沒有任何價格調整會影響季度業績。我們確實在今年年初或年初做過調整，目前價格也維持不變。我認為我們目前沒有製定任何2023年的價格調整計劃。所以，就我們目前的執行情況、新設計的發展方向以及業務現狀而言，價格實際上並不是一個影響因素。

Got it. And then my follow-up, I guess this is a hypothetical, but given the visibility you have and given everything that you've said so far in the call, if your business in calendar '23 is, say, up 5% or flat or somewhere in that range, and most of your peers are down 10%, would it be fair to say that in a recovery phase in 2024, you undergrow your peers or you perhaps don't participate in that recovery? Or are you guys gaining permanent structural share across the analog and MC businesses?

明白了。接下來我想問的是，我想這只是一個假設，但考慮到您目前所掌握的可見性，以及您在電話會議中所說的一切，如果您的業務在2023年增長5%或持平或在這個範圍內，而大多數同行的業務都下降了10%，那麼是否可以說，在2024年的複蘇階段，您的增長速度可能會低於同行，或者您的增長速度可能會低於同行，或者您的增長速度？或者，你們在模擬業務和行動通訊業務中是否會獲得永久性的結構性份額？

It's a hypothetical. We don't know what '24 is, but we believe we are gaining share. We are executing the total system solutions strategy we have. We are focused on the fastest-growing markets, and we are seeing substantial wins that are creating the tailwinds for us.

這只是假設。我們不知道「24」指的是什麼，但我們相信我們正在擴大市場份額。我們正在執行我們現有的整體系統解決方案策略。我們專注於成長最快的市場，並且取得了顯著的成果，這為我們帶來了順風。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Channel or just the inventories, still 40% below prepandemic levels. Your own inventories are kind of at the low end of your target range. So obviously, clear signs that demand remains strong. Given your capacity expansion plans, looking at your demand profile and backlog, do you guys anticipate increasing inventories with your disti customers and moving towards the midpoint of your range on your own inventories over the next, call it, 2 to 3 quarters?

通路庫存，或只是庫存，仍比疫情前的水準低40%。你們自己的庫存大致處於目標範圍的低端。顯然，有明顯的跡象表明需求仍然強勁。考慮到你們的產能擴張計劃，並結合你們的需求狀況和積壓訂單，你們是否預計在接下來的2到3個季度內，你們會增加分銷客戶的庫存，並使自有庫存接近目標範圍的中點？

So we actually grew quite a bit of inventory on our balance sheet in the September quarter, and you'll see just below our guidance table in our press release, we're expecting that to grow again this quarter. And in my prepared remarks, I kind of went through some of the reasons why that is happening as we're positioning the company for future growth.

因此，我們9月份季度的資產負債表上的庫存實際上增長了不少，您可以在新聞稿中的指導表下方看到，我們預計本季度庫存將再次增長。在我準備好的發言中，我大致闡述了出現這種情況的一些原因，我們正在為公司未來的成長做好準備。

In terms of distribution, distribution inventory stayed flat quarter-on-quarter at 19 days. And we think at some point in time, there will be some level of restocking in the distribution channel. That's going to vary by distributor and what -- how they manage the business. But in the meantime, with their inventory being relatively low, we feel that we need to have more inventory on our balance sheet to support the end customer needs. And so that's what we're doing. But really, we are now within our target range of inventory days that we provided to the Street back in our November Analyst Day. So we're managing it appropriately in a challenged supply environment, I would call it.

就分銷而言，分銷庫存環比持平，為19天。我們認為，在某個時間點，分銷通路將進行一定程度的補貨。這將因分銷商及其業務管理方式而異。但同時，由於他們的庫存相對較低，我們認為需要在資產負債表上增加庫存，以滿足最終客戶的需求。這就是我們正在做的事情。但實際上，我們現在的庫存天數已達到我們在11月分析師日向華爾街提供的目標範圍。因此，我認為，在充滿挑戰的供應環境下，我們的庫存管理得當。

Yes. And I know it's always somewhat complex to sift through end market demand trends because you've got such a broad portfolio of products, you're serving many different end markets. However, there is one segment where products are more easily tracked because they are very specific to that end market that's our rad-hard kind of high roll products that's your aerospace and defense business. I believe it's about 13% to 14% of your revenues, much higher mix versus your peers. It seems like activity around commercial space programs, new satellite [cancellations], defense spending all look strong for not just next year but the next several years. You guys are #1 in space, strong trend in defense. Like help us understand the visibility in A&D, growth trends and sustainability of this segment into a potentially weaker macroeconomic backdrop next year.

是的。我知道，篩選終端市場需求趨勢總是有些複雜，因為你們的產品組合非常廣泛，服務許多不同的終端市場。然而，有一個細分市場的產品更容易追踪，因為它們非常具體地針對該終端市場，那就是我們抗輻射的高端產品，也就是你們的航空航太和國防業務。我相信這部分產品約佔你們收入的13%到14%，比你們的同行高很多。看起來，圍繞商業太空計劃、新衛星（取消）以及國防開支的活動不僅在明年，而且在未來幾年都看起來很強勁。你們在太空領域排名第一，在國防領域也發展強勁。請幫助我們了解航空航太和國防業務在明年可能疲軟的宏觀經濟背景下的可見性、成長趨勢和永續性。

Sure. So aerospace and defense, I think, is about 9%, 10% of our revenue. It is performing extremely well for many reasons. And you missed commercial aviation. Commercial aviation is going through a strong resurgence. And so all 3 elements, space, defense and commercial aviation, are all doing strongly in the current environment. And they are generally less influenced by shorter-term macroeconomic conditions.

當然。我認為航空航太和國防業務約占我們收入的9%到10%。由於多種原因，該業務表現非常出色。您忽略了商用航空。商用航空正在強勁復甦。因此，在當前環境下，航太、國防和商用航空這三大領域都表現強勁。而且它們通常受短期宏觀經濟狀況的影響較小。

Next, we'll hear from Matt Ramsay of Cowen.

接下來，我們來聽聽 Cowen 公司的 Matt Ramsay 的發言。

I think Toshiya took my earlier question on ASP assumptions, so I'll just ask one. It's around the consideration of investing in the 300-millimeter fab. I guess there's 2 parts to the question.

我想Toshiya已經回答了我之前關於平均售價（ASP）預測的問題，所以我只問一個。是關於投資300毫米晶圓廠的考慮。我想這個問題可以分成兩個部分。

Ganesh, as you consider that, what would be just, I don't know, ballpark off the top of your head, focus of which process nodes mix in a facility like that if you consider it. And then second, is this something that you guys felt you needed to do but didn't really feel like you could fund all of it until the CHIPS Act got passed, and now that's a reaction to potential funding from governments? Or was this a decision that you were probably going to need to make anyway.

Ganesh，考慮到這一點，您能大概想一下，在這樣的設施中，哪些工藝節點會受到關注？其次，你們是不是覺得有必要這麼做，但在《晶片法案》通過之前，你們真的覺得無法提供全部資金？現在，這是對政府可能提供的資金的一種回應？還是說，這可能是你們無論如何都需要做的決定？

So firstly, on process technologies, those are still being worked. But largely, we use our 300-millimeter foundries today on process technologies that are 90-nanometer and smaller in size. And the workhorse technologies for trailing edge tend to be at 40, 65, 90, in that general neighborhood. But those -- we wouldn't limit ourselves just to that. Again, I want you to think of this as this is a 20-, 25-year look at what we would do with a 300-millimeter fab.

首先，在製程技術方面，這些技術仍在研發中。但目前，我們主要在 300 毫米晶圓廠採用 90 奈米及更小的製程技術。後緣製程的主要技術通常位於 40、65、90 奈米左右。但我們不會將自己局限於此。再次強調，我希望大家將此視為 20 到 25 年後，展望 300 毫米晶圓廠的未來發展方向。

The reasoning for it is we have -- as our business has grown, the portion of our business that we do with 300-millimeter has also grown. And the investment in the trailing edge part of 300-millimeter technologies has not been there with many of our foundries at the level that we have wanted. And -- but it takes a certain scale to get there.

原因在於－隨著我們業務的成長，我們涉及300毫米晶圓的業務份額也在成長。而我們許多代工廠對300毫米技術後緣部分的投資尚未達到我們預期的水準。而且——但要達到這個目標需要一定的規模。

And if you had a full-boat fab that you needed to build, the way in which the breakeven points and the absorption points come about are different from when there is a fab that can be built with government funding and the investment tax credits and whatever local things come in. So clearly, that has changed the equation as to when does it make sense financially. But that's not the only reason why. We think trailing-edge 300-millimeter technology is going to have constraints for a long time to come, and a portion of that being within Microchip would allow us to better serve those markets.

如果你需要建造一座功能齊全的晶圓廠，那麼損益平衡點和吸收點的計算方式與利用政府資金、投資稅收抵免和其他當地資源建造的晶圓廠不同。顯然，這改變了何時建造晶圓廠才具有經濟意義的等式。但這並不是唯一的原因。我們認為，尖端的300毫米技術在未來很長一段時間內都會受到限制，而將部分限制納入微晶片內部，將使我們能夠更好地服務這些市場。

Our next question comes from Joe Moore of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

If you look at your operating margins now, you're obviously much higher than you've been in prior cycles. It seems like a lot of that is secular. But like do you -- when you contemplate these soft-landing scenarios, do you expect your margins to sort of see the type of decline you've seen historically? Could we go back to prior troughs? Just how do -- I know some of your competitors have talked about a target margin on kind of a trough revenue level. Like how should we think about primarily gross margin leverage in a sort of weaker environment?

如果你看看現在的營業利潤率，會發現明顯比前幾個週期高很多。這其中很多因素似乎都是長期的。但是，當你考慮這些軟著陸情景時，你預期利潤率會像歷史上那樣下滑嗎？我們會回到之前的低谷嗎？我知道你們的一些競爭對手談到在低谷收入水準上設定目標利潤率。例如，在經濟疲軟的環境下，我們該如何看待主要的毛利率槓桿？

Well, I'll give you a quick answer, and then Eric might want to elaborate more on it. Again, the best way to look at it is how have we performed over the last 15 years through the cycles. And you will see that, on those metrics, the gross and operating margin, from peak to trough across the cycle, about 200 basis points is the decline in that range, plus or minus 200, 300 basis points. And that's the way in which we manage the business. It's built into our DNA. It's built into our systems and processes. It's built into the soft landing that I described a quarter ago. Eric, do you want to add more to it?

好吧，我先簡單回答一下，然後艾瑞克可能會想更詳細地解釋一下。再次強調，最好的觀察方式是看看我們過去15年在各個週期中的表現。你會發現，從這些指標來看，毛利率和營業利潤率，在整個週期中，從高峰到谷底，下降幅度大約在200個基點左右，上下浮動200到300個基點。這就是我們管理業務的方式。它根植於我們的DNA，根植於我們的系統和流程，也根植於我一個季度前提到的軟著陸。艾瑞克，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. I mean, obviously, we've continued to integrate acquisitions. We've got a different product mix than we've had historically. We feel really comfortable with the margin targets that we've set out for the Street, which we are above today, as you mentioned, on the operating margin side. Because the business has grown so well, we've got quite a bit of cushion. I would call it on our OpEx today with the level of bonuses that we're playing, variable comp that will allow us to adjust if need be, if the macro catches up with us at some point in time.

是的。我的意思是，我們顯然一直在整合收購。我們的產品組合與以往不同。我們對我們向華爾街設定的利潤率目標感到非常滿意，正如您所說，我們目前的營業利潤率已經高於這個目標。由於業務成長良好，我們擁有相當大的緩衝空間。我認為，這得益於我們目前的營運支出，以及我們正在實施的獎金水平，以及浮動薪酬，如果宏觀經濟在某個時間點對我們造成影響，我們可以根據需要進行調整。

So -- and we want to build inventory in our own factories. We think distributors will rebuild inventory. And so we don't want to give a specific number. But again, the range that we've provided on a long-term basis, we think that we can operate within that. And obviously, we're operating above it today.

所以——我們希望在自己的工廠建立庫存。我們認為分銷商也會重建庫存。所以我們不想給一個具體的數字。但再次強調，我們認為我們可以在長期提供的庫存範圍內運作。顯然，我們目前的營運量已經超過了這個範圍。

And the mix of the business we have has end markets that are far more durable in terms of how they perform and what gross margin these products and solutions we bring are able to command. And it's not just silicon. It's silicon. It's software. It's systems. It's services. These are very, very sticky applications and markets that are not prone to perhaps what a pure consumer or mobile phone type of market may have.

我們的業務組合涵蓋了終端市場，這些市場的持久力遠超其表現，也遠遠超出我們產品和解決方案所能帶來的毛利率。這不只是矽片，還有矽片、軟體、系統和服務。這些都是極具黏性的應用和市場，它們不像純粹的消費者市場或手機市場那樣容易受到衝擊。

Tore Svanberg of Stifel.

Stifel 的 Tore Svanberg。

Congrats on all the record metrics. I have a sort of a different angle on the pricing question, and it's kind of more related to ASPs. So if you look at the 25.7% growth year-over-year that you are reporting this quarter, how much of that is coming from higher ASPs, meaning selling more value in the form of your total system type solutions?

恭喜所有指標都創下紀錄。我對定價問題有不同的看法，它與平均售價（ASP）更相關。所以，如果您看本季報告的年增25.7%，其中有多少來自更高的平均售價？這意味著以整體系統解決方案的形式銷售了更多價值。

There's not an easy way to break that up. Clearly, with constrained capacity, we will direct them and have been directing it to the highest-value products that we're producing. We're shipping more units. So there's a lot of the growth that's coming from capacity and additions that we have made in it. But I certainly don't have a good way to parse out what comes from mix and pricing versus what comes from units alone.

很難區分這些差異。顯然，在產能受限的情況下，我們會將資金（並且一直以來）投入到我們生產的高價值產品上。我們的出貨量正在增加。因此，很大一部分成長來自於產能和新增產能。但我實在沒有很好的方法來分析哪些成長來自於產品組合和定價，哪些成長來自單量。

That's fair. And then I had a question on the inventory, whether it's internal or channel. So obviously, the channel, it sounds like you're going to sort of keep that a little bit constrained going forward. But is there maybe a secular trend here where basically, maybe the right number is actually around 20 days of channel inventory and then your own inventories could maybe even exceed the high end of the range, which is 150.

這很合理。然後我有一個關於庫存的問題，無論是內部庫存還是渠道庫存。顯然，渠道庫存，聽起來你未來會稍微限制一下。但這是否有長期趨勢，基本上，正確的數字實際上是大約20天的通路庫存，而你自己的庫存甚至可能超過這個範圍的上限，也就是150天。

No, we don't dictate what channel inventory needs to be. The channel decides what inventory do they need. In some cases, we may be constrained in shipping it to them, and they may not be able to get what they want to, but channel has history of what does it take to support the mix of product, the customer expectations that are there. And we are at the low end of what they have historically done and whether they're going to be at 19 or 20 or 25 or 30 is really a decision they're going to make. We don't tell them what to do in terms of inventory.

不，我們不會規定通路庫存量。渠道決定他們需要多少庫存。在某些情況下，我們可能在出貨方面受到限制，他們可能無法獲得他們想要的貨品，但通路擁有豐富的經驗，知道如何支援現有的產品組合和客戶期望。我們的庫存量處於他們歷史水準的低端，至於他們的庫存量是19、20、25還是30，這完全取決於他們自己。我們不會告訴他們庫存量該怎麼做。

Ultimately, they need to stock the level of inventory appropriate to support their customers, and they'll need to find the right level of that as supply becomes less constrained than it is today. We have a lot of unsupported backlog to our distributors today that we need to catch up on.

最終，他們需要保持適當的庫存水準來支持客戶，並且隨著供應壓力的放寬，他們需要找到合適的庫存水準。目前，我們給經銷商的庫存積壓量很大，需要補足。

Well, for the last year, it doesn't really matter what distributor wanted. We just don't have the product to start them, so that has not been a choice. And we don't think there's a choice for well into 2023. But someday, when we have parts available to start distribution, at that point in time, it will matter what they want to do. Right now, it doesn't matter.

嗯，去年，經銷商想要什麼其實並不重要。我們只是沒有產品來啟動他們的業務，所以這對我來說不是一個選擇。而且我們認為在2023年之前，我們都沒有選擇。但有一天，當我們有零件可以開始分銷時，到那時，他們想要做什麼就很重要了。現在，這還不重要。

Yes, I guess my point was more maybe you have a better read on sell-through than they do, so that's fair.

是的，我想我的觀點是，也許你比他們更了解銷售情況，所以這很公平。

Next we'll hear from Raji Gill of Needham & Company.

接下來我們來聽聽 Needham & Company 的 Raji Gill 的演講。

Congratulations on good results in this very uncertain environment. Just one question on gross margins. They continue to be at kind of record levels. I'm wondering kind of what are the -- have been the drivers of the margin so far? And how do we think about those drivers going through into next year?

恭喜您在當前充滿不確定性的環境下取得了良好的業績。關於毛利率，我只想問一個問題。毛利率持續處於創紀錄的水平。我想知道，到目前為止，毛利率的驅動因素是什麼？我們認為這些驅動因素會如何延續到明年？

Yes. Well, I think the biggest drivers are going to be factory utilization, right? I mean, we have more backlog than we know what to do with at this point in time. And so the factories are running harder than they've ever been before. We're using every piece of equipment that we have to produce as much product as we can. And so with that, our planning and operations team are able to schedule things and batch runs and try to produce as much product as they can.

是的。嗯，我認為最大的驅動因素是工廠利用率，對吧？我的意思是，我們目前積壓的訂單多到我們都不知道該如何處理。所以工廠比以往任何時候都更努力地運作。我們正在使用每一台設備，盡可能地生產產品。這樣，我們的規劃和營運團隊就能安排好生產計畫和批次，盡可能多生產產品。

So that's a big thing. And then I think the other thing that we talked about in the responses to some of the earlier questions is just our product mix and how that's changed over time has continued to enhance the gross margin.

所以這是一件大事。然後，我認為我們在回答之前一些問題時談到的另一件事是我們的產品組合，以及它隨著時間的推移如何持續提高毛利率。

Next, we here from Vijay Rakesh of Mizuho.

接下來，我們請瑞穗的 Vijay Rakesh 發言。

Just a quick question here. As you look at -- you talked about your own inventory and the China inventory. I was just wondering if you could give us some color on what the OEM inventories look like because I think you're starting to see some of the OEMs like Stellantis and BMW this morning talk about worries about caution about a slowing down of sales with macro and rates, et cetera? And then I have a follow-up.

我只是一個簡單的問題。正如您所說——您談到了您自己的庫存和中國的庫存。我只是想知道您能否向我們介紹OEM庫存的情況，因為我認為您今天早上開始看到一些OEM，例如Stellantis和寶馬，談到了對宏觀經濟和利率等因素導致銷售放緩的擔憂。然後我還有一個後續問題。

So OEMs don't tell us what inventory they carry, right? Now what we can gauge is how are they interacting with us on how they see business, how they're -- how many escalation issues are we still working? And we don't see an abatement in terms of what they're trying to do. And OEMs also have not only a requirement to sell to their demand, they're also trying to replenish their dealers and what the dealers' inventory needs to be. They're trying to replenish what the rental car inventory needs to be out there.

所以原始設備製造商不會告訴我們他們有多少庫存，對吧？現在我們可以衡量的是，他們是如何與我們互動的，他們如何看待業務，他們如何——我們仍在處理多少升級問題？而且，我們沒有看到他們正在努力做的事情減少。原始設備製造商不僅需要滿足自身需求，還需要補充經銷商的庫存，滿足經銷商的庫存需求。他們正在努力補充租賃汽車所需的庫存。

So demand is still running strong, and we don't see for our products an inventory issue that they're bringing to us to go solve. If anything, we're working more shortages and constraints for it with them.

所以需求依然強勁，我們並沒有發現他們找我們解決產品庫存問題。如果有的話，我們正在與他們合作解決更多短缺和限制問題。

Got it. And on the last quick question on the pricing side. I know you talked about many different products, but obviously, a lot of the microcontrollers are pretty long-life products there. So just wondering if you took a step back and looked at 2021 or '22 as you exit '22 here for some of the long-life products that you guys have, how has that pricing change trended over the last 2 years?

明白了。最後一個關於定價的快速問題。我知道您談到了許多不同的產品，但顯然，許多微控制器的壽命都很長。所以，我想問一下，在2022年即將結束之際，您是否回顧一下2021年或2022年的情況，看看你們的一些壽命較長的產品，過去兩年裡，它們的價格變化趨勢如何？

So pricing over the history of Microchip is a strategic exercise for a sole-sourced product that is proprietary from us. The only time when we have made a pricing adjustment that's been broad-based, is over the last 1 to 1.5 years when we had cost increases with a view towards covering the cost increases that we were subject to in the way we passed on margined up for that. So outside of that, pricing is not something we try to take advantage of when there are constraints, nor is pricing something that we give up on when there is extra supply.

因此，在Microchip的發展歷程中，定價一直是我們專有的單一來源產品的策略舉措。我們唯一一次進行價格大規模調整是在過去的一年到一年半里，當時我們的成本有所上漲，我們的目標是透過提高利潤來彌補成本上漲帶來的損失。除此之外，在價格受限的情況下，我們不會試圖利用價格優勢；在供應過剩的情況下，我們也不會放棄價格優勢。

And it appears there are no further questions at this time. I'll turn the call back over to our presenters for any additional or closing comments.

目前似乎沒有其他問題了。我會將電話轉回給主持人，請他們補充或發表結束語。

Great. I want to thank everybody for hanging in there and despite some of the technical challenges. We appreciate the questions, and we look forward to seeing many of you and talking to many of you in the phone calls and conferences we have coming up. So thank you.

太好了。我要感謝大家不畏艱難，堅持不懈，克服了一些技術挑戰。我們很感謝大家的提問，也期待在接下來的電話會議和會議中與大家見面，交流探討。謝謝大家。

That does conclude today's call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在可以掛斷電話了。