麥當勞 (MCD) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

麥當勞報告稱,2023 年全球銷售額將強勁成長,客流量增加並維持市場份額。該公司的忠誠度計劃不斷擴大,年銷售額超過 200 億美元。

麥當勞在雞肉類別上經歷了顯著增長,並開設了一家試點 CosMc's 餐廳。他們還努力實現營運現代化和提高效率。

儘管面臨持續的挑戰,麥當勞仍專注於提供實惠的選擇、不斷發展的價值產品和增強品牌體驗。他們預計 2024 年消費者的支出將更加挑剔,但相信他們對麥當勞餐廳的關注將推動成長。

麥當勞計劃吸引更多忠誠會員,增強核心菜單,並擴大雞肉業務。他們的目標是到 2027 年達到 2.5 億活躍忠誠度用戶和 450 億美元的年度忠誠度銷售額。該公司計劃積極投資數位化和技術,以增強客戶體驗並提高效率。他們承認持續存在的阻力,但相信他們的策略使他們能夠實現長期成長。

中東衝突對銷售的影響因國家而異,其中一些國家受到的影響比其他國家更大。麥當勞對自己解決問題和扭轉法國業務的能力充滿信心。他們預計美國和 IOM 的複合成長率將在 3% 至 4% 之間。該公司承認中東局勢對銷售產生重大影響,並表示致力於支持加盟商。

他們在中國度過了成功的一年,並對長期機會保持樂觀。麥當勞在美國實施了提價措施以抵消通貨膨脹,但交易規模減少。他們預計 2024 年定價將根據通貨膨脹而下降,並將繼續根據消費者偏好做出定價決策。

該公司專注於高效運作業務和進行策略性投資。他們期望隨著時間的推移,在一般管理費用方面獲得槓桿作用。麥當勞預計其 McOpCo 利潤率將與 2023 年相對一致,並有信心推動利潤率槓桿和銷售額成長。他們強調了全球範圍內的積極表現和客戶滿意度得分,並感謝參與者的寶貴時間。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, and welcome to McDonald's Fourth Quarter 2023 Investor Conference Call. At the request of McDonald's Corporation, this conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Mike Cieplak, Investor Relations Officer for McDonald's Corporation. Mr. Cieplak, you may begin.

    您好,歡迎參加麥當勞 2023 年第四季投資者電話會議。應麥當勞公司的要求,本次會議正在錄製。 (操作員指示) 我現在想將會議轉交給麥當勞公司投資者關係官 Mike Cieplak 先生。 Cieplak 先生,您可以開始了。

  • Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

    Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

  • Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. With me on the call today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Chris Kempczinski; and Chief Financial Officer, Ian Borden.

    大家早安,感謝您加入我們。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是總裁兼執行長 Chris Kempczinski;和財務長伊恩·博登。

  • As a reminder, the forward-looking statements in our earnings release and 8-K filing also apply to our comments on the call today. Both of those documents are available on our website as are reconciliations of any non-GAAP financial measures mentioned on today's call, along with their corresponding GAAP measures.

    提醒一下,我們的收益發布和 8-K 文件中的前瞻性陳述也適用於我們今天在電話會議上的評論。這些文件以及今天電話會議中提到的任何非公認會計原則財務指標及其相應的公認會計原則指標的調節表都可以在我們的網站上找到。

  • Following prepared remarks this morning, we will take your questions. (Operator Instructions) today's call is being webcast and is also being recorded for replay via our website.

    在今天早上準備好的發言之後,我們將回答你們的問題。 (操作員說明)今天的電話會議正在進行網路廣播,並將透過我們的網站進行錄音以供重播。

  • And now I'll turn it over to Chris.

    現在我將把它交給克里斯。

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, and good morning, everyone. When we gathered at this time last year, we shared that despite a challenging operating environment, McDonald's continued to deliver historically high levels of growth. While macroeconomic pressures persisted throughout 2023, the resilience and power of our system was on full display and we are heading into the new year in a position of strength.

    謝謝大家,大家早安。去年這個時候,當我們齊聚一堂時,我們一致認為,儘管經營環境充滿挑戰,麥當勞仍繼續實現歷史高水準的成長。儘管2023年宏觀經濟壓力持續存在,但我們系統的彈性和力量得到了充分展示,我們正以強勢的姿態邁入新的一年。

  • In 2023, we achieved global comp sales growth of 9%, delivered guest count performance of nearly 3% globally with positive traffic across each of our segments and maintained our leading market share across most of our major markets. These results are a credit to the tireless dedication of the entire McDonald's system: the over 2 million talented people working in our restaurants, the industry's best franchisees and our world-class network of suppliers around the world, all executing with excellence and with an unwavering commitment to serving our customers and local communities.

    2023 年,我們的全球同業銷售額成長了 9%,全球賓客人數成長了近 3%,各個細分市場的客流量均呈正成長,並在大多數主要市場保持了領先的市場份額。這些成果歸功於整個麥當勞系統的不懈奉獻:在我們的餐廳工作的超過200 萬優秀人才、業內最好的特許經營商以及我們遍布世界各地的世界級供應商網絡,所有這些都以卓越的執行力和堅定不移的精神致力於服務我們的客戶和當地社區。

  • And in our restaurants, focusing on the fundamentals of creating an exceptional customer experience has delivered operational improvements, improved service times and increased customer satisfaction across almost all of our major markets. Our Accelerating the Arches strategy is working, fueling over 30% comparable sales growth since 2019, and our MCD growth pillars enable us to remain agile in response to changing customer needs.

    在我們的餐廳中,專注於創造卓越客戶體驗的基本原則已經在我們幾乎所有主要市場實現了營運改善、服務時間縮短和客戶滿意度提高。我們的加速拱門策略正在發揮作用,自 2019 年以來推動可比銷售額成長超過 30%,我們的 MCD 成長支柱使我們能夠保持敏捷性,以應對不斷變化的客戶需求。

  • For example, we've expanded loyalty to 50 markets around the world and reached over $20 billion in annual loyalty system-wide sales in 2023. Our user base continues to grow with over 150 million users that have been active in the last 90 days, making us one of the largest loyalty programs in the world.

    例如,我們已將忠誠度擴展到全球50 個市場,並在2023 年實現忠誠度系統範圍內的年度銷售額超過200 億美元。我們的用戶群持續成長,過去90 天內活躍的用戶數量超過1.5 億,使我們成為世界上最大的忠誠度計劃之一。

  • Over the last 3 years, we've also delivered tremendous growth in chicken by developing the McCrispy, a globally consistent high-quality chicken sandwich. With the goal of solving this unmet customer need across the system, it was developed and tested in a few markets first and has quickly scaled to a $1 billion brand across more than 30 markets worldwide. Our chicken category now represents $25 billion in annual system-wide sales on par with beef.

    在過去 3 年裡,我們也透過開發全球一致的高品質雞肉三明治 McCrispy,實現了雞肉產量的巨大成長。為了解決整個系統中未滿足的客戶需求,它首先在幾個市場進行開發和測試,並迅速擴展到全球 30 多個市場,成為價值 10 億美元的品牌。我們的雞肉品類目前在全系統範圍內的年銷售額為 250 億美元,與牛肉持平。

  • And about a year ago, we formed a new business ventures team designed to operate as an entrepreneurial start-up within McDonald's. The team quickly identified an opportunity in a $100 billion category across our top 6 markets that comprise of beverage-led occasions where our core McDonald's business under indexes.

    大約一年前,我們組建了一個新的商業創投團隊,旨在作為麥當勞內部的新創公司進行營運。團隊很快就在我們的 6 大市場中發現了價值 1000 億美元的機會,其中包括以飲料為主導的場合,我們的核心麥當勞業務已納入索引。

  • In a little less than a year, the team opened a pilot CosMc's restaurant and the buzz has been electric. Now let me say this again: we're only talking about a 10-store test. But more than that, we are excited about what this says about our potential to test, learn and innovate quickly.

    在不到一年的時間裡,團隊開設了一家 CosMc 試點餐廳,引起了轟動。現在讓我再說一次:我們只是談論 10 家商店的測試。但更重要的是,我們對這表明我們快速測試、學習和創新的潛力感到興奮。

  • Each of these examples illustrate our ability to identify opportunities and adopt new ways to surprise and delight our customers. It gives us an incredible amount of resilience as a system no matter where the customer goes next or what the macroeconomic landscape may bring.

    這些例子都說明了我們發現機會並採用新方法來給客戶帶來驚喜和喜悅的能力。無論客戶下一步走向何方,也無論宏觀經濟情勢如何,它都為我們的系統提供了令人難以置信的彈性。

  • In the last year, we also implemented Accelerating the Organization, an effort to modernize the way we work so that we're faster, more innovative and more efficient. And over the past year, as I've had the opportunity to visit markets around the world, I've witnessed how the principles of AtO have empowered our teams to take the right risk, lead in innovation and reduce complexity in decision-making.

    去年,我們還實施了“加速組織”,旨在實現工作方式現代化,使我們更快、更具創新性和更有效率。在過去的一年裡,當我有機會訪問世界各地的市場時,我親眼目睹了 AtO 的原則如何幫助我們的團隊承擔正確的風險、引領創新並降低決策的複雜性。

  • Some of the senior leadership team and I recently visited Salt Lake City, and I witnessed firsthand how knowledge-sharing across the system is unlocking speed and driving customer lifetime value. The business unit is part of our Denver field office, which as a whole has embraced the power of digital, maximizing our platform to drive frequency and engagement with customers. This means that the restaurants can take full advantage of Ready On Arrival.

    我和一些高階領導團隊最近造訪了鹽湖城,我親眼目睹了整個系統的知識共享如何釋放速度並推動客戶終身價值。該業務部門是我們丹佛現場辦事處的一部分,該辦事處作為一個整體已經擁抱了數位化的力量,最大限度地利用我們的平台來提高頻率和與客戶的互動。這意味著餐廳可以充分利用「抵達即準備」服務。

  • In addition to a national average 60-second reduction in wait times for customers that pick up curbside in our restaurant where higher customer satisfaction in these transactions, Ready On Arrival benefits the crew by giving the right information to the right person in the restaurant to deliver food faster and hotter. As a result, we've reduced complexity and stress in restaurants and Salt Lake franchisees are driving higher levels of guest count growth and franchisee cash flow.

    除了將在我們餐廳路邊取貨的顧客的全國平均等待時間縮短60 秒(提高了顧客在這些交易中的滿意度)之外,「到達就緒」功能還可以向餐廳中正確的人員提供正確的資訊以進行送餐,使工作人員受益食物更快更熱。因此,我們降低了餐廳的複雜性和壓力,鹽湖城特許經營商正在推動更高水準的客人數量成長和特許經營商現金流。

  • By removing layers between our people and the restaurants and implementing a One McDonald's Way approach, collaborating across the organization is much more intuitive and teams bring the full breadth of McDonald's resources, skills and experiences to the forefront when making decisions. And as critical as this power of global scale is to our competitive advantage, at our core, we are a global business that is run by local small business owners that employ thousands within their communities.

    透過消除員工與餐廳之間的層級關係並實施「One McDonald’s Way」方法,整個組織內的協作變得更加直觀,團隊在做出決策時可以將麥當勞的全部資源、技能和經驗放在首位。儘管這種全球規模的力量對我們的競爭優勢至關重要,但從本質上講,我們是一家由當地小企業主經營的全球企業,在其社區內僱用了數千名員工。

  • Since the beginning of our brand's history, McDonald's and our franchisees have been steadfast in the support of our communities in the most challenging times. And whether it was the recent earthquake in Japan, the tragedies that struck Morocco and Hawaii last year or the war in the Middle East, our focus is on creating a positive impact in the communities we serve.

    自從我們品牌歷史開始以來,麥當勞和我們的特許經營商在最具挑戰性的時期一直堅定地支持我們的社區。無論是最近發生的日本地震、去年襲擊摩洛哥和夏威夷的悲劇還是中東戰爭,我們的重點都是為我們所服務的社區創造積極影響。

  • Across the more than 75 markets in our IDL segment, McDonald's is a major employer of local citizens, creating valuable career opportunities for more than 780,000 local employees in both restaurant and office jobs and at more than 1,000 locally owned suppliers.

    在我們 IDL 部門的超過 75 個市場中,麥當勞是當地居民的主要雇主,為餐廳和辦公室工作的超過 780,000 名當地員工以及 1,000 多家當地供應商創造了寶貴的職業機會。

  • We're proud to grow that footprint. In 2023, the IDL segment opened an average of 4 new restaurants every single day, creating new jobs for nearly 50,000 people this year alone.

    我們很自豪能夠擴大這一足跡。 2023 年,IDL 部門平均每天新開 4 家餐廳,光是今年就創造了近 5 萬人的新就業機會。

  • And by removing barriers for children who need health care, Ronald McDonald House Charities helped to provide essential services for over 870,000 families across this segment.

    透過消除需要醫療保健的兒童的障礙,麥當勞叔叔之家慈善機構幫助為該領域超過 870,000 個家庭提供基本服務。

  • For the over 130,000 workers in our Europe, Middle East and Africa business, our #1 priority is keeping our people safe. We recognize that families and their communities in the region continue to be tragically impacted by the war, and our thoughts are with them at this time.

    對於我們歐洲、中東和非洲業務的 13 萬多名員工來說,我們的第一要務是確保員工的安全。我們認識到該地區的家庭及其社區繼續受到戰爭的悲慘影響,此時我們的心與他們同在。

  • McDonald's has always been a beacon in our communities around the world, led by local franchisees who work tirelessly to serve and support. The ongoing impact of the war on these franchisees' local businesses is disheartening and ill founded. As our value states, McDonald's will always proudly open our doors to everyone.

    麥當勞一直是我們世界各地社區的燈塔,由當地特許經營商領導,他們孜孜不倦地提供服務和支援。戰爭對這些特許經營商當地業務的持續影響令人沮喪且毫無根據。正如我們的價值觀所表明的那樣,麥當勞將始終自豪地向所有人敞開大門。

  • Thinking back on 2023, I can't help but feel tremendous pride in the entire McDonald's system. And as we think about our ambitions and the potential that lies ahead, there's never been a better time to be part of brand McDonald's. As I will continue to say, we believe there is still significant runway in our Accelerating the Arches strategy and we're setting our sights even higher.

    回想起2023年,我不禁對整個麥當勞系統感到無比自豪。當我們思考我們的雄心壯志和未來的潛力時,現在是成為麥當勞品牌一部分的最佳時機。正如我將繼續說的那樣,我們相信我們的「加速拱門」策略仍然有重要的發展空間,我們將目標定得更高。

  • I'll speak more on the year ahead in a few minutes, but first, I'll turn it over to Ian to talk through our Q4 results.

    我將在幾分鐘內更多地談論未來一年的情況,但首先,我將把它交給 Ian 來討論我們的第四季度業績。

  • Ian Frederick Borden - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Ian Frederick Borden - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • Thanks, and good morning, everyone. As Chris mentioned just a few minutes ago, core to Accelerating the Arches strategy is putting the customer at the center of every decision we make, acting with agility in any environment to deliver delicious feel-good moments at an affordable price each and every day.

    謝謝,大家早安。正如克里斯幾分鐘前提到的,加速拱門策略的核心是將客戶置於我們所做的每一個決策的中心,在任何環境下靈活行動,每天以實惠的價格提供美味的感覺良好的時刻。

  • Our quarter 4 comp sales performance of over 4% in both the U.S. and IOM segments and over 3% globally remains a direct result of exceptional execution against this strategy, making it clear once again that our business is resilient despite ongoing macro pressures and challenges.

    我們的第四季美國和IOM 細分市場的銷售業績超過4%,全球銷售業績超過3%,這仍然是針對此策略的出色執行的直接結果,這再次表明,儘管面臨持續的宏觀壓力和挑戰,我們的業務仍具有彈性。

  • As a system, we've navigated countless challenging environment since we first opened our doors in 1955. This past quarter was no exception, and our thoughts remain with the families and communities impacted by the war in the Middle East. As Chris and I have both mentioned before, the war has meaningfully impacted our IDL segment performance, resulting in fourth quarter comp sales of less than 1%. Despite this, our business model provides stability in our P&L from the negative sales impact in the region.

    作為一個系統,自 1955 年首次開業以來,我們經歷了無數充滿挑戰的環境。過去的這個季度也不例外,我們的想法始終與受中東戰爭影響的家庭和社區同在。正如 Chris 和我之前提到的,戰爭對我們的 IDL 部門業績產生了重大影響,導致第四季的可比銷售額不到 1%。儘管如此,我們的業務模式使我們的損益表保持穩定,免受該地區銷售的負面影響。

  • Among the many strategic advantages of McDonald's are our size, scale and geographic diversity translating to incredible resilience as a system. We will continue to stay focused on supporting our people and the local communities in which we operate as we work closely with our DL partners in the region.

    麥當勞的眾多戰略優勢包括我們的規模、規模和地理多樣性,這些優勢轉化為一個系統令人難以置信的彈性。我們將繼續與該地區的 DL 合作夥伴密切合作,繼續專注於支持我們的員工和我們開展業務的當地社區。

  • We are extremely proud of the way our system continues to consistently show up for customers in every corner of the world, highlighting time and time again the strength of the McDonald's brand when our system comes together.

    我們對我們的系統持續不斷地為世界各個角落的顧客展示的方式感到非常自豪,當我們的系統整合在一起時,一次又一次地凸顯了麥當勞品牌的實力。

  • Providing our customers with affordable options has always been core to our brand, and it's even more important as consumers feel pressure on their spending, particularly the lower-income consumer. We continue to listen to our customers by evolving our value offerings, maintaining strong perceptions in value for money and affordability.

    為客戶提供價格實惠的選擇一直是我們品牌的核心,當消費者(尤其是低收入消費者)感受到支出壓力時,這一點就顯得更加重要。我們不斷傾聽客戶的意見,不斷發展我們的價值產品,保持對物有所值和負擔能力的強烈認知。

  • Canada, for example, maintained their McMuffin and hot coffee pairing this quarter, providing an affordable bundle during a critical daypart and helping to drive market share gains in breakfast.

    例如,加拿大本季保持了麥鬆餅和熱咖啡的搭配,在關鍵時段提供價格實惠的套餐,有助於推動早餐市場份額的成長。

  • The U.K. followed a similar playbook by expanding their Saver Meals Deals to offer smaller bundles during the morning daypart for just a few pounds. Only available through our mobile app, this further cemented McDonald's U.K. as a destination for great food at great value while contributing to increased loyalty sales.

    英國也遵循了類似的策略,擴大了他們的特惠餐優惠,在早上提供小套餐,價格僅為幾英鎊。這只能透過我們的行動應用程式獲得,這進一步鞏固了英國麥當勞作為物超所值的美食目的地的地位,同時有助於增加忠誠度銷售。

  • The U.K. also combined the strength of the McDonald's brand with its proven history of connecting with customers through successful holiday marketing to create Festive Wins, an elevated in-app experience that leaned into the holiday spirit with a fun and interactive calendar promotion. Through a combination of daily deals, compelling prices and exclusive merchandise, Festive Wins boosted digital engagement to an all-time high for the market and generated 4 million active monthly customers.

    英國也將麥當勞品牌的優勢與其透過成功的假日行銷與客戶建立聯繫的悠久歷史相結合,創造了“Festive Wins”,這是一種提升的應用程式內體驗,透過有趣的互動日曆促銷融入節日精神。透過每日優惠、極具吸引力的價格和獨家商品的結合,Festive Wins 將市場的數位參與度提升至歷史最高水平,並產生了 400 萬活躍月度客戶。

  • And in Australia, the market brought back its 30 Days 30 Deals promotion, where customers enjoyed a daily deal available exclusive in the MyMc's app. From discounts on our most iconic menu items like the Big Mac, cheeseburger or our world-famous French fries to unique meal deals, the promotion drove remarkable engagement and contributed to a record number of active loyalty members in the market.

    在澳大利亞,市場恢復了 30 天 30 次優惠促銷活動,客戶可以在 MyMc 應用程式中享受每日獨家優惠。從我們最具代表性的菜單項目(如巨無霸、起司漢堡或世界著名的炸薯條)的折扣,到獨特的餐食優惠,此次促銷活動推動了顯著的參與度,並導致市場上活躍的忠誠會員數量達到創紀錄的水平。

  • Beyond maintaining an affordable price point, we're constantly elevating the McDonald's experience, enhancing the overall value proposition of the brand. This was evident as many markets offered Monopoly this quarter, leveraging learnings from across the globe to create highly interactive campaigns and once again igniting our fan's love for McDonald's.

    除了保持實惠的價格點外,我們還不斷提升麥當勞的體驗,增強品牌的整體價值主張。這一點很明顯,因為本季許多市場都提供了大富翁遊戲,利用全球各地的經驗來創造高度互動的活動,並再次點燃了我們的粉絲對麥當勞的熱愛。

  • The Canadian market tapped into global best practices by offering Monopoly with a Double Peel option for the first time this year by giving customers a second chance to win in the app. The market continued to amplify the digital experience while maintaining those core qualities of the game that our customers love. The customer excitement was on full display, and the market achieved record-setting results generating nearly 700,000 new app customers in just 5 weeks and driving significant lifts in mobile app sales. In fact, more than 43 million Monopoly codes were digitally redeemed during the promotion. That's more than the entire population of Canada.

    加拿大市場借鑒了全球最佳實踐,今年首次為 Monopoly 提供了 Double Peel 選項,為客戶提供了在應用程式中第二次獲勝的機會。市場持續擴大數位體驗,同時保持客戶喜愛的遊戲核心品質。客戶的興奮得到了充分體現,市場取得了創紀錄的成果,在短短 5 週內就創造了近 70 萬個新應用程式客戶,並推動了行動應用程式銷售的大幅提升。事實上,在促銷期間,超過 4,300 萬個大富翁代碼被數位兌換。這比加拿大的總人口還要多。

  • Germany also experienced record-breaking registrations with their Monopoly program by combining iconic peel off game pieces with the ability to scan to win prices in the mobile app. And for the first time, Germany offered loyalty points as prizes, rewarding our customers and driving additional digital customer frequency.

    德國的「大富翁」計畫也打破了註冊記錄,該計畫將標誌性的剝離遊戲部件與行動應用程式中掃描贏取價格的功能相結合。德國首次提供忠誠度積分作為獎勵,獎勵我們的客戶並提高數位客戶頻率。

  • And in France, Monopoly drove additional loyalty sales with an interactive redemption experience for our customers. We continue to navigate a difficult operating environment in the market, where results have softened and comp sales were negative for the quarter.

    在法國,大富翁透過為客戶提供互動兌換體驗,推動了額外的忠誠度銷售。我們持續應對市場的艱難經營環境,該季度業績疲軟,公司銷售額為負。

  • Moving forward, we're confident that we have the right leadership team in place with the right experience to reset with our franchisees who I know are committed to restoring our strong foundation. We are acting with a sense of urgency to address our opportunities and maintaining a growth mindset in critical areas like value, core menu and delivery.

    展望未來,我們相信我們擁有合適的領導團隊,他們擁有正確的經驗,可以與我們的特許經營商一起重置,我知道他們致力於恢復我們堅實的基礎。我們以緊迫感採取行動,抓住機遇,並在價值、核心菜單和交付等關鍵領域保持成長心態。

  • Our One McDonald's Way approach to marketing extends beyond Monopoly as we continue to drive brand strength building cultural relevance and connecting with our customers and crew in new and exciting ways. This quarter, we once again tapped into the nostalgic McDonald's experience of enjoying a Happy Meal as a kid and recreated it for our adult fans featuring our core menu favorites at the center.

    我們的「麥當勞一條路」行銷方式超越了《大富翁》的範疇,我們繼續增強品牌實力,建立文化相關性,並以令人興奮的新方式與客戶和員工建立聯繫。本季度,我們再次利用童年時享受快樂套餐的懷舊麥當勞體驗,並為我們的成年粉絲重新創造了它,其中以我們最喜歡的核心菜單為中心。

  • Originally launched in the U.S. in 2022, we brought back the campaign to the market in December, partnering with artists and creator, Kerwin Frost, and scaling it to 15 additional markets, including Canada. The excitement for the return of this event was evident, driving a significant social media engagement across many of our channels. And by encouraging our customers to trade up with a full margin promotion, we fueled top line growth with a strong average check lift.

    我們最初於 2022 年在美國推出該活動,並於 12 月與藝術家和創作者 Kerwin Frost 合作,將該活動重新推向市場,並將其擴展到包括加拿大在內的其他 15 個市場。這次活動的回歸令人興奮不已,推動了我們許多管道的社群媒體互動。透過鼓勵客戶進行全額利潤促銷,我們透過強勁的平均支票提升推動了營收成長。

  • In an environment where our customers are looking to familiar favorites, those core menu items have never been more relevant or beloved. At the center of our core menu are an iconic portfolio of brands, $17 billion brands in their own right, including 4 different chicken equities that are each $1 billion brands. We continue to stay aggressive on chicken this quarter, making further progress towards our ambition of developing a reputation for great chicken.

    在我們的顧客尋找熟悉的最愛的環境中,這些核心菜單項目從未如此相關或受人喜愛。我們核心菜單的核心是標誌性品牌組合,這些品牌本身價值 170 億美元,其中包括 4 個不同的雞肉股票,每個品牌價值 10 億美元。本季我們繼續在雞肉方面保持積極進取,在實現我們打造優質雞肉聲譽的目標方面取得進一步進展。

  • Germany rehit the McCrispy Chicken Sandwich with strong results driving a lift in chicken sandwich sales and building additional customer affinity for the product. And the U.K. built on its market leadership in chicken by extending the McCrispy brand with a limited time offering, the McCrispy Smokehouse, combining new and exciting flavors and ingredients with our core chicken offerings.

    德國重新推出了 McCrispy 雞肉三明治,取得了強勁的業績,推動了雞肉三明治銷量的提升,並為該產品建立了更多的客戶親和力。英國透過推出限時產品 McCrispy Smokehouse 來擴展 McCrispy 品牌,將令人興奮的新口味和原料與我們的核心雞肉產品相結合,從而鞏固了其在雞肉市場的領導地位。

  • In China, with slowing macroeconomic conditions and consumer confidence near record lows, the market continued to build brand equity by combining our delicious food with culture and community through a collaboration with local street wear designer, Verdy. The campaign not only featured access to exclusive merchandise, but put our delicious chicken at the center and drove incremental traffic into our restaurants by offering customers a discount on a second order.

    在中國,隨著宏觀經濟情勢放緩和消費者信心接近歷史低點,市場透過與當地街頭服飾設計師 Verdy 的合作,將美味佳餚與文化和社區結合起來,繼續建立品牌資產。該活動不僅以獲得獨家商品為特色,而且將我們美味的雞肉放在中心位置,並通過為顧客提供第二次訂單折扣來增加我們餐廳的客流量。

  • Turning to our P&L. Our top line growth drove adjusted earnings per share of $2.95 for the quarter. This is an increase over the prior year of 11% in constant currencies excluding current year charges of almost $140 million for write-offs of impaired software no longer in use and charges related to our Accelerating the Arches growth strategy.

    轉向我們的損益表。我們的營收成長推動本季調整後每股收益達到 2.95 美元。以固定匯率計算,這比前一年增長了 11%,不包括本年度因不再使用的受損軟體沖銷而產生的近 1.4 億美元的費用以及與我們加速 Arches 增長戰略相關的費用。

  • Foreign currency translation positively impacted fourth quarter results by $0.07 per share.

    外幣換算對第四季業績產生了每股 0.07 美元的正面影響。

  • For the full year, adjusted operating margin was just over 47%, reflecting higher restaurant margin dollars across all segments.

    全年調整後營業利益率略高於 47%,反映出所有細分市場的餐廳利潤率均較高。

  • Despite the significant P&L pressures that we've discussed throughout the year, top line results generated $14 billion of restaurant margin for the year, an increase of about 10% in constant currency.

    儘管我們全年討論了巨大的損益壓力,但全年餐廳利潤仍創造了 140 億美元的營收,以固定匯率計算增長了約 10%。

  • Lastly, before I hand it back over to Chris, I want to touch briefly on our capital expenditures and free cash flow profile. Our CapEx spend for the year was approximately $2.4 billion with more than half invested in new unit development across our U.S. and IOM segments. After reinvesting in the business, our free cash flow conversion was in the 90% range for the year.

    最後,在我將其交還給克里斯之前,我想簡要地談談我們的資本支出和自由現金流狀況。我們今年的資本支出約為 24 億美元,其中超過一半投資於我們美國和 IOM 部門的新單位開發。在對業務進行再投資後,我們今年的自由現金流轉換率達到了 90%。

  • And with that, let me turn it back over to Chris.

    接下來,讓我把它轉回給克里斯。

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Ian. As we look to 2024 with elevated absolute prices and muted consumer confidence, we believe that consumers will continue to be more discriminating with their dollars. But we expect our focus on our MCDs will continue to drive growth across our business. And from a historical perspective, we know our resilience is rooted in our ability to adapt in any environment.

    謝謝,伊恩。展望 2024 年,絕對價格上漲且消費者信心低迷,我們相信消費者將繼續更加謹慎地對待自己的美元。但我們預計對 MCD 的關注將繼續推動我們業務的成長。從歷史的角度來看,我們知道我們的韌性植根於我們適應任何環境的能力。

  • McDonald's is one of the world's most recognized and most beloved brands, providing delicious meals at an affordable price and showing up when and where customers need us. By building a One McDonald's Way approach to marketing and creative excellence, we will continue to scale the best ideas globally through common tools and processes that help us maximize return on investment and that shine a light on what people love about McDonald's.

    麥當勞是世界上最受認可和最受歡迎的品牌之一,以實惠的價格提供美味佳餚,並在顧客需要的時間和地點出現。透過建立「麥當勞之路」的營銷和卓越創意方法,我們將繼續透過通用工具和流程在全球推廣最佳創意,幫助我們最大限度地提高投資回報,並彰顯人們對麥當勞的熱愛。

  • We're creating an environment that embraces bold creative and we're remaining connected to culture by tapping into the moments, memories, rituals and behaviors that people have with our brand.

    我們正在創造一個擁抱大膽創意的環境,並透過利用人們對我們品牌的瞬間、記憶、儀式和行為來保持與文化的聯繫。

  • And McDonald's position on value is a competitive advantage. With a strategy rooted in customer behaviors and insights, we are optimizing price while limiting customer resistance.

    麥當勞的價值定位是一種競爭優勢。憑藉植根於客戶行為和洞察的策略,我們在優化價格的同時限制客戶的抵制。

  • As we continue to attract millions of new loyalty members, we can get even smarter with our pricing methodology and tailor our digital offers to our fans, making them even more personalized.

    隨著我們繼續吸引數以百萬計的新忠誠會員,我們可以更加聰明地利用我們的定價方法,並為我們的粉絲量身定制我們的數位優惠,使它們更加個性化。

  • Looking ahead, we'll also continue to make our core menu even more enticing. With initiatives like Best Burger, we've made small changes that are adding up to big differences that our customers are really noticing. Best Burger is now deployed across more than 70 markets, including the U.S., and we're excited about the potential for growth as it deploys to nearly all markets by 2026.

    展望未來,我們也將繼續使我們的核心菜單變得更加誘人。透過像 Best Burger 這樣的舉措,我們做出了一些小改變,這些改變累積起來就產生了我們的客戶真正注意到的巨大差異。 Best Burger 目前已在包括美國在內的 70 多個市場部署,我們對其成長潛力感到興奮,因為到 2026 年它會部署到幾乎所有市場。

  • And as we look to build on our leadership in beef, we're addressing an unmet customer need across markets for larger, high-quality burgers. We're working horizontally across the system to innovate. As we test and learn, we'll be working to understand how the new offering will complement our already established burgers like the Double QPC or the Big Tasty.

    當我們希望鞏固我們在牛肉領域的領導地位時,我們正在解決整個市場上未滿足的客戶對更大、高品質漢堡的需求。我們正在整個系統內橫向進行創新工作。在我們測試和學習的過程中,我們將努力了解新產品將如何補充我們已經推出的漢堡(例如 Double QPC 或 Big Tasty)。

  • We're also excited to further build on our success in chicken by continuing to invest in beloved icons like McNuggets and McChicken while further scaling emerging favorites like McCrispy and McSpicy. These 4 equities are the building blocks of our growing chicken business, and we see the potential to add another point of chicken share by 2026, in part through an expansion of our McCrispy platform into wraps and tenders.

    我們也很高興能夠透過繼續投資 McNuggets 和 McChicken 等深受人們喜愛的品牌,同時進一步擴大 McCrispy 和 McSpicy 等新興美食的規模,進一步鞏固我們在雞肉領域的成功。這 4 隻股票是我們不斷成長的雞肉業務的基石,我們看到到 2026 年有可能再增加一分雞肉份額,部分方法是透過將我們的 McCrispy 平台擴展到捲餅和嫩肉領域。

  • We've made incredible progress across our 4Ds by taking the things our customers love about McDonald's from convenience to personal connections with our brand and making them even better. For example, Ready On Arrival will expand across our top 6 markets by the end of 2025. And while we build one of the largest loyalty programs in the world in just a few years, over 150 million active users today represents only a fraction of our total customers. We aim to reach 250 million active users and $45 billion in annual loyalty system-wide sales by the end of 2027.

    透過將顧客對麥當勞的熱愛(從便利性到與我們品牌的個人聯繫)轉化為更好的品質,我們在 4D 方面取得了令人難以置信的進步。例如,到2025 年底,Ready On Arrival 將擴展到我們的6 大市場。雖然我們在短短幾年內建立了世界上最大的忠誠度計劃之一,但目前超過1.5 億的活躍用戶僅占我們的一小部分客戶總數。我們的目標是到 2027 年底達到 2.5 億活躍用戶和 450 億美元的年度忠誠度系統銷售額。

  • And as you heard during our investor update, the world's largest restaurant company is planning to grow even faster over the next 4 years. We know our ambition to reach 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027 is a compelling opportunity, and we've done our homework. We've identified key areas with high population growth and lower store density across both our IOM and U.S. segments, and that's where we're starting.

    正如您在我們的投資者更新中聽到的那樣,全球最大的餐飲公司計劃在未來 4 年內實現更快的成長。我們知道,到 2027 年底,用餐數量達到 50,000 家的目標是一個極具吸引力的機會,而且我們已經完成了我們的功課。我們已經在 IOM 和美國部門中確定了人口增長較高且商店密度較低的關鍵區域,這就是我們的起點。

  • These opportunities before us in the near term are compelling. But as we plan for long-term growth and solidify McDonald's leadership position, we've introduced 3 new platforms that will become part of Accelerating the Arches: to build on our competitive advantages, cement our place in culture and stay one step ahead of the next generation of digital customers.

    短期內擺在我們面前的這些機會是引人注目的。但隨著我們規劃長期成長並鞏固麥當勞的領導地位,我們推出了3 個新平台,這些平台將成為Accelerated the Arches 的一部分:增強我們的競爭優勢,鞏固我們的文化地位,並領先於競爭對手一步。下一代數位客戶。

  • This includes building one of the largest consumer platforms in the world to attract and retain highly valuable digital and loyalty customers. The easiest and most efficient restaurant operating platform that puts intuitive technology in the hands of our restaurant teams and drives a better experience for both our customers and our crew and a company platform that unlocks speed and innovation.

    這包括建立世界上最大的消費者平台之一,以吸引和留住高價值的數位和忠誠客戶。最簡單、最高效的餐廳營運平台,將直覺的技術交給我們的餐廳團隊,為我們的客戶和員工帶來更好的體驗,也是一個釋放速度和創新的公司平台。

  • We believe our biggest opportunity to advance and acquire new customers and build more meaningful customer relationships that result in greater frequency and spending is continuing to aggressively invest in digital and technology as a 3-legged stool. For our customers, we will better leverage the data we have across our loyalty program to provide targeted offers and personalized experiences, building relationships with the customers that we serve every single day and ensuring that they enjoy a more familiar, consistent experience no matter where they go or how they were.

    我們相信,我們推進和獲取新客戶以及建立更有意義的客戶關係(從而提高頻率和支出)的最大機會是繼續積極投資數位和技術作為三腳凳。對於我們的客戶,我們將更好地利用我們在忠誠度計劃中擁有的數據來提供有針對性的優惠和個性化體驗,與我們每天服務的客戶建立關係,並確保他們無論身在何處都能享受到更熟悉、一致的體驗去或他們怎麼樣。

  • For restaurant, it's investing to put the most intuitive technology in the hands of our restaurant teams that makes their jobs easier and empowers them to provide amazing hospitality while serving hot and accurate orders to customers even faster.

    對於餐廳而言,我們正在投資將最直觀的技術交給我們的餐廳團隊,使他們的工作變得更加輕鬆,並使他們能夠提供令人驚嘆的款待服務,同時更快地為顧客提供熱食和準確的訂單。

  • And for the company, it is building the systems, processes and tools that will enable our people to be more efficient and innovate with speed and agility.

    對於公司來說,它正在建立系統、流程和工具,使我們的員工能夠更有效率、快速、敏捷地進行創新。

  • As I've said before, these are bold plans, but our success tomorrow has always depended on our ability to stay ahead of our customers' changing needs while reimagining what a restaurant can be. We're building the engine that will power McDonald's ability to unleash the full strength of our global scale where it counts.

    正如我之前所說,這些都是大膽的計劃,但我們明天的成功始終取決於我們能否領先於客戶不斷變化的需求,同時重新構想餐廳的未來。我們正在打造一個引擎,讓麥當勞在重要的地方充分發揮我們全球規模的實力。

  • I'll now turn it back over to Ian to talk through our 2024 financial outlook.

    現在我將把它轉回 Ian 來討論我們 2024 年的財務前景。

  • Ian Frederick Borden - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Ian Frederick Borden - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • Thanks, Chris. As we've discussed, we continue to operate in a challenging environment with varying levels of headwinds across our markets. Looking ahead to this year, we anticipate these headwinds will continue as the current macro dynamics continue to weigh on both our consumers and our business results along with the war in the Middle East. As we navigate these ongoing challenges, continuing to execute at the highest level with a laser focus towards growing market share will be critical.

    謝謝,克里斯。正如我們所討論的,我們繼續在充滿挑戰的環境中運營,各個市場都面臨著不同程度的阻力。展望今年,我們預計這些不利因素將繼續存在,因為當前的宏觀動態以及中東戰爭繼續給我們的消費者和我們的業務表現帶來壓力。當我們應對這些持續的挑戰時,繼續以最高水準執行,重點關注不斷增長的市場份額將至關重要。

  • It's clear that we've had exceptional success over the last 4 years with strong broad-based momentum and global comp sales of over 30% when compared to 2019. It's truly remarkable. But as we've mentioned before, we anticipate 2024 comp sales growth will continue to moderate as we return to a more normalized level of growth with expectations closer to historical averages of between 3% and 4% in our U.S. and IOM segments. And in IDL, we do not expect to see meaningful improvement until there is a resolution in the Middle East.

    很明顯,我們在過去 4 年中取得了非凡的成功,擁有強勁的廣泛勢頭,與 2019 年相比,全球銷售額增長了 30% 以上。這確實非常了不起。但正如我們之前提到的,我們預計2024 年公司銷售額成長將繼續放緩,因為我們將恢復到更正常的成長水平,預計美國和IOM 細分市場的成長率將接近3% 至4% 的歷史平均。在中東問題達成解決方案之前,我們預計 IDL 不會出現有意義的改進。

  • We expect our net restaurant expansion in 2024, along with restaurants we opened in 2023, will contribute nearly 2% to system-wide sales growth as we begin to accelerate our new unit development and make progress against our target of 50,000 restaurants by 2027.

    我們預計,隨著我們開始加速新部門的開發並在 2027 年實現 50,000 家餐廳的目標取得進展,2024 年餐廳淨擴張以及 2023 年開設的餐廳將為全系統銷售成長貢獻近 2%。

  • With expectations of moderating sales growth and ongoing inflationary headwinds, we expect our company-operated margin percent will remain pressured in the near term and we expect the full year 2024 company-operated margin percent will be relatively in line with 2023.

    鑑於銷售成長放緩和持續的通膨逆風的預期,我們預計公司經營利潤率在短期內仍將面臨壓力,我們預計 2024 年全年公司經營利潤率將與 2023 年相對一致。

  • Turning to G&A. The financial strength of our system enables us to invest in areas that will drive long-term efficiencies for our people and for our stakeholders. We expect 2024 G&A as a percentage of system-wide sales to be about 2.2%, which reflects elevated investments in technology, digital and Global Business Services or GBS. Through these investments, we'll look to run the business more efficiently over time and ultimately free up more resource to continue to drive long-term growth.

    轉向一般行政費用。我們系統的財務實力使我們能夠投資於能夠為我們的員工和利害關係人帶來長期效率的領域。我們預計 2024 年一般行政費用佔全系統銷售額的百分比約為 2.2%,反映出對技術、數位和全球商業服務 (GBS) 的投資增加。透過這些投資,我們將尋求隨著時間的推移更有效地經營業務,並最終釋放更多資源以繼續推動長期成長。

  • Despite headwinds throughout the P&L, we anticipate an operating margin of mid- to high 40% in 2024, driven primarily by top line growth and franchise margin performance.

    儘管損益表中存在不利因素,但我們預計 2024 年營業利潤率將達到 40% 的中高水平,這主要是由營收成長和特許經營利潤率表現推動的。

  • We're projecting interest expense this year to increase between 9% and 11% compared to 2023 due to higher average debt balances and interest rates.

    由於平均債務餘額和利率較高,我們預計今年的利息支出將比 2023 年增加 9% 至 11%。

  • And we expect our effective tax rate for the year to be between 20% and 22%.

    我們預計今年的有效稅率將在 20% 至 22% 之間。

  • Transitioning to capital expenditures, we plan to spend between $2.5 billion and $2.7 billion this year, more than half of which will be dedicated to new unit openings across our U.S. and IOM segments. Globally, we plan to open more than 2,100 restaurants this year with about 500 of these openings in our U.S. and IOM segments, where we continue to see strong returns.

    轉向資本支出,我們計劃今年支出 25 億至 27 億美元,其中一半以上將專門用於在美國和 IOM 部門開設新部門。在全球範圍內,我們計劃今年開設 2,100 多家餐廳,其中約 500 家開設在我們的美國和 IOM 部門,我們將繼續在這些領域看到強勁的回報。

  • We also expect to open more than 1,600 restaurants in our IDL segment this year, including about 1,000 in China, where we recently completed the acquisition of Carlyle's 28% stake in McDonald's China. We're excited to have increased our minority ownership to 48% in our second largest and fastest-growing market and believe it will enable us to further benefit from the market's long-term potential. Overall, we anticipate about 4% unit growth driven by more than 1,600 net restaurant additions in 2024.

    我們也預計今年將在 IDL 業務中開設超過 1,600 家餐廳,其中約 1,000 家位於中國,我們最近完成了對凱雷集團在麥當勞中國 28% 股份的收購。我們很高興將我們在第二大且成長最快的市場的少數股權增加到 48%,並相信這將使我們能夠進一步受益於該市場的長期潛力。整體而言,我們預計 2024 年淨新增餐廳數量將超過 1,600 家,帶動單位數量將增加約 4%。

  • And finally, we expect to generate strong cash flow in 2024 with free cash flow conversion in the 90% range.

    最後,我們預計 2024 年將產生強勁的現金流,自由現金流轉換率將達到 90%。

  • Going forward, our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. First, investing in the business to drive growth. This includes both capital expenditures as well as increased cash investments in technology, digital and GBS.

    展望未來,我們的資本配置重點維持不變。首先,投資業務以推動成長。這包括資本支出以及在技術、數位和 GBS 方面增加的現金投資。

  • Second, returning all remaining free cash flow through dividends and share buybacks over time.

    其次,隨著時間的推移,透過股利和股票回購返還所有剩餘的自由現金流。

  • While the macro environment remains challenging, we believe that our Accelerating the Arches strategy is the right playbook, and we continue to maximize our M, C and D growth pillars to drive strong results. We have confidence that our competitive strengths and our ability to continue to evolve to stay ahead of the customer positions us to succeed in any economic environment, delivering long-term growth for our system and our shareholders.

    儘管宏觀環境仍然充滿挑戰,但我們相信我們的加速拱門策略是正確的策略,我們將繼續最大限度地發揮我們的 M、C 和 D 成長支柱,以推動強勁的業績。我們相信,我們的競爭優勢和持續發展以保持領先於客戶的能力使我們能夠在任何經濟環境中取得成功,為我們的系統和股東帶來長期成長。

  • Now let me turn it back over to Chris to close.

    現在讓我把它轉回給克里斯結束。

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • For nearly 70 years, the McDonald's story has been one of growth: a first job for millions, the best franchising opportunity in the world and a familiar beacon of support for the over 40,000 communities we serve. In fact, our U.S. business generated 1.4 million jobs and contributed $108 billion to the U.S. GDP in the last year alone.

    近 70 年來,麥當勞的故事一直是一個成長的故事:數百萬人的第一份工作、世界上最好的特許經營機會以及為我們服務的 40,000 多個社區提供支持的熟悉燈塔。事實上,光是去年,我們的美國業務就創造了 140 萬個就業崗位,為美國 GDP 貢獻了 1,080 億美元。

  • Even as the world around us continues to change, the power of our brand has stood the test of time. That's because McDonald's continues to reinvent itself and stay one step ahead of our customers.

    即使我們周圍的世界不斷變化,我們品牌的力量也經歷了時間的考驗。這是因為麥當勞不斷重塑自我,並且始終領先我們的顧客一步。

  • While our Accelerating the Arches strategy is working, we will only keep growing when we're continuing to take smart risks and operating with a long-term mindset. Ray Kroc said it best, "The only way we can advance is by going forward, individually and collectively, in the spirit of the pioneer in the pride of accomplishment."

    雖然我們的「加速拱門」策略正在發揮作用,但只有當我們繼續承擔明智的風險並以長期的思維方式運作時,我們才能保持成長。雷·克羅克(Ray Kroc)說得最好:“我們前進的唯一途徑就是本著為成就而自豪的先鋒精神,單獨和集體地前進。”

  • Even with all that we've accomplished since the launch of Accelerating the Arches, I am confident that there is so much more that we could achieve. I look forward to coming together with all 3 legs of our stool at our upcoming worldwide convention this April to share how we will reimagine our future together.

    儘管自推出「加速拱門」以來我們已經取得瞭如此多的成就,但我相信我們還能取得更多成就。我期待在今年四月即將舉行的全球大會上與我們的三足鼎立,分享我們將如何共同重新構想我們的未來。

  • Thank you to our franchisees, suppliers and employees whose passion and dedication is central to bringing the McDonald's experience to life for our customers each and every day. With that, we'll take questions.

    感謝我們的特許經營商、供應商和員工,他們的熱情和奉獻精神是每天為我們的顧客帶來麥當勞體驗的核心。接下來,我們將回答問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

    Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

  • Our first question is from David Palmer with Evercore.

    我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Palmer。

  • David Sterling Palmer - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    David Sterling Palmer - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • Probably just a two-parter. Quickly, do you think that there's any impact from boycotts to IOM results anywhere even if they're slight?

    大概只是兩個人吧。很快,您認為抵制對國際移民組織的結果是否有任何影響,即使影響很小?

  • And then separately, the multiyear trends this year have been stable for a lot of the year, basically since the second quarter. I'm really thinking the U.S., very strong multiyear trend. So there's no shame in these remaining stable. I'm just wondering if there -- if you think that there is a reason for those trends to reaccelerate or there's a lesson in that maybe your best play because, obviously, we're dealing through some very noisy months here with weather and whatnot over the fourth quarter and here in January. So I'm wondering how you're viewing that with the goal perhaps being that multiyear trend can reaccelerate into '24 and your best play to make that happen.

    另外,今年的多年趨勢在一年中的大部分時間都保持穩定,基本上是從第二季開始。我真的想到了美國,多年來的趨勢非常強勁。因此,保持穩定並不可恥。我只是想知道,如果你認為這些趨勢重新加速是有原因的,或者有一個教訓,這可能是你最好的選擇,因為顯然,我們正在經歷一些非常嘈雜的月份,比如天氣之類的第四季度和一月份。所以我想知道你如何看待這一點,目標可能是多年趨勢可以在 24 年重新加速,以及你最好的表現來實現這一目標。

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Hey, David, it's Chris. Thanks for the questions. First, on your question about the Middle East, obviously, the place that we're seeing the most pronounced impact is in the Middle East. We are seeing some impact in other Muslim countries like Malaysia, Indonesia.

    嘿,大衛,我是克里斯。感謝您的提問。首先,關於你關於中東的問題,顯然,我們看到影響最明顯的地方是中東。我們看到馬來西亞、印尼等其他穆斯林國家受到了一些影響。

  • And then as far as IOM impact, it depends on the country. So in a country, for example, like France that has a larger Muslim population, we are seeing some impact in France. It depends very much on where the restaurant is located and if it's in a Muslim area, but we are seeing some impact there. And then in other countries like Spain, like in Italy, we're seeing no impact. So it really depends very much on the country. But as I said, the most pronounced impact that we're seeing is in the Middle East and in Muslim countries like Indonesia and Malaysia.

    至於國際移民組織的影響,這取決於國家。因此,在像法國這樣穆斯林人口較多的國家,我們看到了一些影響。這在很大程度上取決於餐廳所在的位置以及是否位於穆斯林地區,但我們在那裡看到了一些影響。然後在西班牙、義大利等其他國家,我們沒有看到任何影響。所以這在很大程度上取決於國家。但正如我所說,我們看到的最明顯的影響是在中東以及印尼和馬來西亞等穆斯林國家。

  • Also, as we said, in our prepared remarks, our outlook is, so long as this conflict, this war is going on, we're not making any plans. We're not expecting to see any significant improvement in this. It's a human tragedy what's going on. And I think that, that does weigh on brands like ours.

    此外,正如我們在準備好的演講中所說,我們的前景是,只要這場衝突、這場戰爭仍在繼續,我們就不會制定任何計劃。我們預計這方面不會有任何重大改進。這是一場人類悲劇。我認為,這確實給我們這樣的品牌帶來了壓力。

  • Back to your other question about potentially a reacceleration, as we also said in the prepared remarks and we also talked about at Investor Day, we're expecting 2024 to be normalizing comp sales growth in that kind of 3% to 4% range, which is where we've been more historically. So we certainly had great performance over whether you look at it on a 2-year horizon, a 4-year horizon, 30-plus percent on a 4-year horizon, call it, 14% or so on a 2-year horizon. So feel great about that. But I think we are moving into a 2024 that's going to look more like what you would have considered a typical year prior to COVID and all the things that have gone on.

    回到你關於潛在重新加速的另一個問題,正如我們在準備好的評論中所說以及我們也在投資者日上談到的那樣,我們預計2024 年公司銷售增長將在3% 至4% 的範圍內實現正常化,這是我們歷史上去過的地方。因此,無論從 2 年範圍、4 年範圍來看,4 年範圍內 30% 以上,或 2 年範圍內 14% 左右,我們都取得了出色的表現。所以對此感覺很好。但我認為我們正在進入 2024 年,這看起來更像是新冠疫情和所有發生的事情之前的典型一年。

  • Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

    Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

  • Our next question is from John Ivankoe with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的約翰·伊万科。

  • John William Ivankoe - Senior Restaurant Analyst

    John William Ivankoe - Senior Restaurant Analyst

  • The question is on France. And France has obviously been a leading market for McDonald's in a lot of ways for a couple of decades now, and in some cases, has actually been a leading indicator of positive performance in other markets of things that were done in France that were then copied by others quite successfully -- implemented by others quite successfully. So it did sound like you had some self-help in France: value, core menu and delivery.

    問題是關於法國。幾十年來,法國顯然在許多方面一直是麥當勞的領先市場,在某些情況下,實際上已經成為其他市場積極表現的領先指標,這些市場在法國所做的事情隨後被複製由其他人相當成功地實施- 由其他人相當成功地實施。所以聽起來你在法國確實有一些自助:價值、核心菜單和送貨。

  • I mean did you find yourself, I guess, kind of catching up from behind in some of those metrics? I wanted to understand a little bit more maybe what you could have done differently in the fourth quarter to improve results. And do you think possibly there could be some leading indicators in France that are happening now within the market, of course, excluding the Middle East sentiment, that maybe we can apply to other markets to ensure those markets don't dip negative in the near term?

    我的意思是,我猜你是否發現自己在某些指標上後來居上?我想更了解你在第四季可以採取哪些不同的做法來改善業績。您是否認為法國市場中現在可能出現一些領先指標,當然,不包括中東情緒,也許我們可以應用於其他市場,以確保這些市場在近期不會下跌學期?

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure. Thanks for the question. You're right in pointing out France for us has been historically one of our best markets. We have some of our highest customer satisfaction in that market. We have some of our highest franchising cash flows in that market. We're not happy with our performance in France right now. And if I were to isolate 2 areas that we are focused on to improve in France, the first is we did get offsides on value there. The team has done a very nice job in pivoting and just put in place a new value program there that we're seeing great early success with that. But certainly, that was a reaction and we don't want to see that.

    當然。謝謝你的提問。您正確地指出,法國對我們來說歷來是我們最好的市場之一。我們在該市場擁有最高的客戶滿意度。我們在該市場擁有最高的特許經營現金流。我們對目前在法國的表現並不滿意。如果我要孤立我們在法國重點改進的兩個領域,第一個就是我們確實在價值上越位了。該團隊在轉型方面做得非常出色,並且剛剛在那裡實施了一個新的價值計劃,我們看到了早期的巨大成功。但當然,這是一種反應,我們不想看到這種情況。

  • And then second, we continue to have operations opportunities in France and that's something that we've been having a lot of engagement on with our franchisees.

    其次,我們繼續在法國擁有營運機會,這是我們一直與特許經營商進行大量接觸的事情。

  • So as I think about IOM, certainly lessons there. But on the positive side, France is certainly our most pressured market right now in France -- or in IOM, but I also feel very good that we're going to get that business back on track and continue to have the performance that we've become accustomed to in that market over many, many years.

    因此,當我想到國際移民組織時,我當然從中學到了教訓。但從積極的一面來看,法國無疑是我們目前在法國或國際移民組織中壓力最大的市場,但我也感到非常高興,因為我們將使該業務重回正軌並繼續保持我們的表現。多年來我們已經習慣這個市場了。

  • Ian Frederick Borden - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Ian Frederick Borden - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • And maybe, John, I'll just build on a bit on Chris' comments. I mean, I think 2 things. One is as we talked about in our prepared remarks, we've got almost an entirely new leadership team in place in the market, a team that has a tremendous amount of McDonald's business experience and we have a lot of confidence in that team and the experience they bring, I think, to drive the right catalyst.

    約翰,也許我會以克里斯的評論為基礎。我的意思是,我認為有兩件事。一是正如我們在準備好的發言中談到的那樣,我們在市場上幾乎建立了一個全新的領導團隊,這個團隊擁有豐富的麥當勞業務經驗,我們對該團隊和公司充滿信心我認為,他們帶來的經驗可以推動正確的催化劑。

  • I think when you have a market that maybe is a little bit off track, what you look to have you got the right people with the right experience to drive change and then do you feel like you have clarity of sight to the kind of underlying issues that you need to address. And I think on both of those fronts, we feel good.

    我認為,當你的市場可能有點偏離軌道時,你希望擁有具有正確經驗的合適人員來推動變革,然後你是否覺得自己對潛在問題有清晰的認識您需要解決的問題。我認為在這兩方面,我們感覺都很好。

  • Obviously, as Chris spoke about, it's going to kind of take a moment to get momentum going back in the right direction. But I know together with our franchisees in France, we're going to be aggressive to kind of go after the opportunities that we exist. And I think we're very, very aligned in how we're approaching that with them.

    顯然,正如克里斯所說,需要一些時間才能讓勢頭回到正確的方向。但我知道,與我們在法國的特許經營商一起,我們將積極主動地抓住我們現有的機會。我認為我們與他們的處理方式非常非常一致。

  • Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

    Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

  • Our next question is from Jeff Bernstein with Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的傑夫伯恩斯坦。

  • Jeffrey Andrew Bernstein - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Jeffrey Andrew Bernstein - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Great. Chris, question as we think about 2024. First, I just wanted to clarify, I think you mentioned 3% to 4% comps in the U.S. and IOM. I'm not used to seeing such specific guidance, so that's encouraging. But I'm wondering if you could share any thoughts on the components of that between pricing, which we get the sense is easing versus traffic.

    偉大的。克里斯,我們關於 2024 年的問題。首先,我只是想澄清一下,我認為你提到了美國和國際移民組織 3% 到 4% 的補償。我不習慣看到如此具體的指導,所以這是令人鼓舞的。但我想知道您是否可以分享對定價之間組成部分的任何想法,我們認為定價是放鬆與流量之間的關係。

  • And then just more broadly, the operating margin guidance from mid- to high 40% range, let's say, fairly wide, I guess, 500 basis points or so range. I'm just wondering if you can help narrow or perhaps talk about what would lead margins to be at the upper versus lower end of that wide range.

    更廣泛地說,營業利潤率指引從中等到高 40% 的範圍內,我猜,相當寬的範圍,500 個基點左右。我只是想知道您是否可以幫助縮小範圍,或者談論什麼會導致利潤率處於該寬範圍的上限和下限。

  • Ian Frederick Borden - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Ian Frederick Borden - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • It's Ian. So let me take that. I think as we talked about on the comps in our opening remarks, I think -- and we've been talking about it, as you know, pretty consistently over the last couple of quarters, as inflation levels have come down and obviously our pricing broadly is coming down in line with kind of inflation getting back to what I'll call more normal levels, I think that's why we talk about comps kind of getting back to more of that historical norm range of 3% to 4% in both the U.S. and IOM this year.

    是伊恩。那麼就讓我接受吧。我想,正如我們在開場白中談到的那樣,我想,正如你所知,我們在過去幾個季度一直在談論這個問題,因為通貨膨脹水平已經下降,顯然我們的定價也有所下降總體而言,隨著通貨膨脹率回到我所說的更正常水平,我認為這就是為什麼我們談論經濟增長率回到3%至4%的歷史正常範圍的原因今年美國和國際移民組織。

  • I mean I think the only texture I'd give you there is we had a slower start to the year. I think there are a couple of important reasons for that. Firstly, we had a really strong start to 2023. So obviously, we're lapping against that. And then I think you'll remember a year ago, we talked about just the abnormally mild weather that we were dealing with as a tailwind benefit in beginning of '23 in both North America and Europe, and so we're obviously working against that as well.

    我的意思是,我認為我能給你的唯一的訊息是我們今年的開局較慢。我認為這有幾個重要原因。首先,我們在 2023 年有一個非常強勁的開局。很明顯,我們正在反對這一點。然後我想你會記得一年前,我們談到了 23 年初北美和歐洲的異常溫和天氣,作為順風效益,所以我們顯然正在努力應對這種情況以及。

  • I think if I was to think about the year, I think about the back half of the year probably being slightly stronger -- slightly stronger than probably the front half. Just again, we had an incredibly strong first 2 quarters of 2023 that we're working against. And I think some of the macro factors that were -- are going to impact us in 2024 could, I think, be slightly easing towards the back half of this year versus the front half.

    我想,如果我要考慮這一年,我認為下半年可能會稍微強一些——可能比前半部分強一些。再說一遍,我們在 2023 年前兩個季度的表現異常強勁。我認為,一些將在 2024 年影響我們的宏觀因素可能會在今年下半年相對於上半年略有緩解。

  • On op margin, look, I mean if you go back to 2019, I think we've had a pretty strong demonstration of what we will continue to talk about, which is, over time, certainly believe we continue to be able to drive leverage and op margin as we get the strong top line growth. If you go back to 2019, we were kind of in that 44-ish percent range. We ended last year at just over 47%. I think that's a pretty strong proof point of our ability to continue to grow margins as we look forward on a percentage basis. I think obviously, as Chris talked about 2024, we've got some headwinds to work through, but feel really confident about our ability to continue to grow margins over time.

    在營運利潤率方面,我的意思是,如果你回到2019 年,我認為我們已經有力地證明了我們將繼續討論的內容,那就是,隨著時間的推移,我們肯定相信我們繼續能夠提高槓桿率隨著我們實現強勁的營收成長,營運利潤率也隨之提高。如果你回到 2019 年,我們的比例大約在 44% 左右。去年我們的成長率略高於 47%。我認為這是一個非常有力的證據,證明我們有能力繼續提高利潤率,因為我們以百分比為基礎進行展望。我認為顯然,正如克里斯談到的 2024 年,我們需要克服一些阻力,但對我們隨著時間的推移繼續提高利潤率的能力充滿信心。

  • Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

    Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

  • Our next question is from David Tarantino with Baird.

    我們的下一個問題來自大衛·塔倫蒂諾和貝爾德。

  • David E. Tarantino - Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

    David E. Tarantino - Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

  • My question is on the impacts you're seeing in the Middle East. I guess 2 questions. One, could you help to quantify your estimate on how much that impacted your sales in the fourth quarter?

    我的問題是關於你在中東看到的影響。我猜有2個問題。第一,您能否協助量化您對第四季銷售額影響程度的估計?

  • And then secondly, could you comment on the health of your franchisees in the areas that have been most impacted and whether you think some temporary assistance will be needed as you move through 2024?

    其次,您能否評論一下受影響最嚴重地區的特許經營商的健康狀況,以及您認為 2024 年期間是否需要一些臨時援助?

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Hey, David, it's Chris. Just -- I'll do a couple of things and then let Ian clean up whatever I missed. But we're not going to get into specific numbers on the Middle East. But suffice to say, as you see in our IDL results, you can infer that the impact is meaningful, as I said also in our employee note at the beginning of this year.

    嘿,大衛,我是克里斯。只是——我會做幾件事,然後讓伊恩清理我錯過的一切。但我們不會透露中東的具體數字。但我只想說,正如您在我們的 IDL 結果中看到的那樣,您可以推斷影響是有意義的,正如我在今年年初的員工說明中所說的那樣。

  • And then in terms of health of the franchisees, we're really fortunate in that we have some very strong, very well-capitalized franchisees in the Middle East. But as we have historically done, as we work through challenges around the world, you've seen us in partnership with franchisees do things to support them during difficult periods that sometimes can be deferrals, sometimes it can be other forms of support. And so those are ongoing conversations that we'll have with our franchisees.

    然後就特許經營商的健康狀況而言,我們非常幸運,因為我們在中東擁有一些非常強大、資本充足的特許經營商。但正如我們歷史上所做的那樣,當我們應對世界各地的挑戰時,您會看到我們與特許經營商合作,在困難時期為他們提供支持,有時可能是延期,有時可能是其他形式的支持。因此,我們將與我們的特許經營商進行持續的對話。

  • We believe that working in partnership with our franchisees and doing things together through good times and bad is the way that we've been successful over time. So it's going to be very much a situation-by-situation approach that we have in the Middle East, but certainly, the impact right now is significant. And Ian, I'll pass it off to you for anything else you want to add.

    我們相信,與我們的特許經營者合作,無論順境或逆境,共同努力,才是我們長期成功的方式。因此,我們在中東將採取具體情況具體分析的方法,但當然,目前的影響是巨大的。伊恩,我會將其轉交給您,以供您補充任何其他內容。

  • Ian Frederick Borden - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Ian Frederick Borden - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • Yes. Thanks, Chris. So maybe just a couple of builds to that. I mean, David, you know that, as I've talked about before, I think we've got an incredibly resilient business model. Obviously, if you look back over the last several years, we've had to work through a number of different external challenges, and I think the geographic breadth, the size and scale of our business and our financial strength means we're in a position of strength to kind of work through any of these challenges, including the one that we're currently facing in the Middle East with the war that's going on.

    是的。謝謝,克里斯。所以也許只需要進行一些建造即可。我的意思是,大衛,你知道,正如我之前談到的,我認為我們擁有一個非常有彈性的商業模式。顯然,如果你回顧過去幾年,我們必須應對許多不同的外部挑戰,我認為地理廣度、我們業務的規模和規模以及我們的財務實力意味著我們正處於一個我們擁有應對這些挑戰的實力,包括我們目前在中東面臨的挑戰。

  • In regards to kind of support for franchisees or DL partners, as I've talked about before, I mean, providing support is part of our business model. It's obviously how we work together with our franchisees when conditions outside of their control warrant support. But when we do that, it's always, as you know, targeted and temporary and designed, obviously, to go to owner-operators or partners who are most in need. I think as Chris said, we've got some incredibly strong partners in the Middle East, the majority of those partners have been with us for 20 years or more. We've worked through a variety of challenges over the years. And I think we'll continue to be focused on supporting our team members in the region, working with the communities that we do business in and working closely with the DL partners to get through this together. And I'm very, very confident that we'll do that.

    至於對特許經營商或 DL 合作夥伴的支持,正如我之前談到的,我的意思是,提供支援是我們商業模式的一部分。顯然,當特許經營商無法控制的情況需要支持時,我們就是這樣與他們合作的。但如您所知,當我們這樣做時,顯然總是有針對性的、臨時性的和設計的,以幫助最需要幫助的業主經營者或合作夥伴。我認為正如克里斯所說,我們在中東擁有一些非常強大的合作夥伴,其中大多數合作夥伴已經與我們合作了 20 年或更長時間。多年來,我們應對了各種挑戰。我認為我們將繼續專注於支持該地區的團隊成員,與我們開展業務的社區合作,並與 DL 合作夥伴密切合作,共同度過難關。我非常非常有信心我們會做到這一點。

  • Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

    Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

  • Our next question is from Eric Gonzalez with KeyBanc.

    我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Eric Gonzalez。

  • Eric Andrew Gonzalez - VP & Equity Research Analyst

    Eric Andrew Gonzalez - VP & Equity Research Analyst

  • I'm wondering maybe if you could comment on China specifically. I know it's not a huge part of your profit today, but you do have some big growth aspirations in that country. So if you could comment on some of the macro challenges that you're seeing and how they're impacting results in that country? And maybe talk about how the brand is positioned to gain share in that market.

    我想知道你能否具體評論一下中國。我知道這不是你們今天利潤的很大一部分,但你們確實在那個國家有一些巨大的成長願望。那麼,您是否可以評論一下您所看到的一些宏觀挑戰以及它們如何影響該國的表現?也許還可以談談該品牌如何定位以贏得該市場的份額。

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure. Well, overall, we had a very good 2023 in China. We were happy with how our business performed in China. We're seeing strong growth there. We also built 1,000 restaurants in China. So we're very much on track from our development aspirations and we would expect to do something similar in 2024 from that standpoint. So overall headline is feel good about what we're seeing in China and the progress in growth.

    當然。嗯,總的來說,我們在中國度過了非常美好的2023年。我們對我們在中國的業務表現感到滿意。我們看到那裡的強勁成長。我們還在中國開設了 1,000 家餐廳。因此,我們的發展願望已經步入正軌,從這個角度來看,我們預計在 2024 年會做類似的事情。因此,總體標題是對我們在中國看到的情況和成長的進展感到滿意。

  • Certainly, in China, as you've read about and seen it with a number of other companies, consumer sentiment in the country is a little bit more under pressure right now. And that is leading to -- in Q4, in particular, we saw the environment get more promotional. We didn't necessarily follow that, but certainly the environment is getting more promotional.

    當然,在中國,正如您在許多其他公司中所讀到的那樣,該國的消費者信心目前面臨的壓力更大一些。這導致——特別是在第四季度,我們看到環境得到了更多的宣傳。我們不一定遵循這一點,但可以肯定的是,環境正在變得更加促銷。

  • And our focus is on making sure that we remain competitive. So we're going to do what we need to do to maintain our competitiveness in that market. But if you think about the overall macro trends in China, I talked about this at Investor Day, we certainly think that we're going to continue to see good comp performance in that market as consumer wealth and GDP continue to grow mid-single digits. We think there's going to be an opportunity for us to continue to build out development and penetration in that market to many places where we don't really have McDonald's presence.

    我們的重點是確保我們保持競爭力。因此,我們將採取必要措施來維持我們在該市場的競爭力。但如果你考慮中國的整體宏觀趨勢,我在投資者日談到了這一點,我們當然認為,隨著消費者財富和GDP 繼續以中個位數成長,我們將繼續看到該市場良好的業績表現。我們認為,我們將有機會繼續在該市場上發展和滲透到許多我們實際上沒有麥當勞存在的地方。

  • So overall outlook on China for us continues to be very robust, which is why we increased our stake, as Ian mentioned.

    因此,我們對中國的整體前景仍然非常樂觀,這就是我們增持股份的原因,正如伊恩所提到的。

  • Ian Frederick Borden - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Ian Frederick Borden - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • I might just add on a couple of things to Chris. I mean first, I would just acknowledge the team and our team in China, we opened just over 1,000 restaurants in 2023, which was an all-time high for us. And as Chris mentioned, as we talked about in our remarks, we completed the acquisition of the additional 28% to take our stake to 48% at the end of January. And I think we continue to remain really optimistic about the long-term opportunity there and our ability to have an increased stake in that long-term opportunity with that additional stake acquisition. And we're looking forward to getting that market to 10,000 restaurants by end of 2028, which is, I think, a really important milestone as we look forward.

    我可能會向克里斯補充一些內容。我的意思是,首先,我要感謝我們的團隊和我們在中國的團隊,我們在 2023 年開設了 1,000 多家餐廳,這對我們來說是歷史最高水準。正如克里斯所提到的,正如我們在演講中談到的,我們在一月底完成了額外 28% 的收購,使我們的持股比例達到 48%。我認為我們仍然對那裡的長期機會以及我們透過額外股權收購增加長期機會中的股份的能力保持樂觀。我們期待在 2028 年底讓該市場擁有 10,000 家餐廳,我認為這是我們期待的一個非常重要的里程碑。

  • Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

    Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

  • Our next question is from Brian Harbour with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的布萊恩哈伯。

  • Brian James Harbour - Research Associate

    Brian James Harbour - Research Associate

  • Yes. Maybe I'll just ask about the U.S. Are you willing to say kind of where pricing was in the fourth quarter and also into the first quarter? And also any color you can provide by daypart, I think we've heard some other companies talking more about late night or if you perhaps have any comments on breakfast recently?

    是的。也許我會問一下美國的情況。您願意透露一下第四季和第一季的定價嗎?還有您可以在白天提供的任何顏色,我想我們已經聽到其他一些公司更多地談論深夜,或者您最近對早餐有什麼評論嗎?

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure. Well, I'll kind of just give some macro comments. Again, have Ian pick any details. But certainly, we've continued to work through pricing in the U.S. as we were looking to offset inflation. We saw what I would describe as mid- to high single-digit price increases last year. It depends a little bit on where you were in the country, but mid- to high single-digit pricing.

    當然。好吧,我只是給一些宏觀評論。再次讓 Ian 選擇任何細節。但當然,我們繼續研究美國的定價,因為我們希望抵消通貨膨脹。去年我們看到了我所說的中高個位數的價格上漲。這在一定程度上取決於您在該國的哪個地方,但價格為中高個位數。

  • We are seeing, as I've talked about on prior calls, that particularly among the low-income consumer, there's some transaction size reduction that we're seeing. We're also seeing some trade down there. So that offset a little bit of the pricing -- the absolute pricing that we took.

    正如我在之前的電話會議中談到的那樣,我們看到交易規模有所減少,特別是在低收入消費者中。我們也看到那裡有一些貿易。因此,這抵消了一點定價——我們採用的絕對定價。

  • But I think as you think about 2024, certainly, inflation is going to be less, probably in the low single-digit inflation in '24, and that will be consistent with where we end up on pricing.

    但我認為,當你考慮 2024 年時,通膨肯定會降低,可能會在 24 年達到個位數的低通膨,這將與我們最終的定價結果一致。

  • From a daypart standpoint, I'd say pretty balanced there. But breakfast continues to be a competitive area, a lot of activity going on in breakfast. Our business, as you know, is dominated around particularly lunch. That's our single biggest daypart and that daypart continues to do well. So nothing particularly noteworthy that I would say on dayparts, but Ian, maybe you have any other insights to share there.

    從時段的角度來看,我想說那裡相當平衡。但早餐仍然是一個競爭激烈的領域,早餐中發生了許多活動。如您所知,我們的業務主要以午餐為主。這是我們最大的一天時段,並且該時段繼續表現良好。因此,我在白天沒有什麼特別值得注意的事情要說,但是伊恩,也許你還有其他見解可以分享。

  • Ian Frederick Borden - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Ian Frederick Borden - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • Yes. You, I think, covered all the bases, Chris, but maybe just a couple of builds. I mean, I think we did see overall pricing for the year just around 10%. But as Chris noted, in the fourth quarter, that level of pricing came down, obviously, in line with inflation and was in that high single-digit range. I mean, I think we're continuing to see pretty consistent flow through with pricing, which I think is really important because it goes back to what I've spoken about before with just the tools and capabilities that we've put in place to make sure that when we are taking pricing, we're doing that in the most effective way possible.

    是的。我認為你涵蓋了所有基礎,克里斯,但也許只是幾個構建。我的意思是,我認為今年的整體定價確實只有 10% 左右。但正如克里斯指出的那樣,在第四季度,定價水平明顯下降,與通膨一致,並且處於較高的個位數範圍內。我的意思是,我認為我們將繼續看到定價方面相當一致的流程,我認為這非常重要,因為它可以追溯到我之前談到的內容,即我們已經部署的工具和功能確保我們在定價時以盡可能最有效的方式進行定價。

  • Obviously, as we head into 2024, knowing inflation has come down a fair bit from its peak. I think, as I said earlier, I think our pricing we certainly expect will come down roughly in line with that as we work through the year. We certainly know consumers are more weary or weary of pricing, and we're going to continue to be consumer led in our pricing decisions as we kind of look forward to 2024 and knowing that the environment will continue to be competitive. We'll be thoughtful together with our franchisees, obviously, who make those decisions in their own restaurants as we look forward.

    顯然,當我們進入 2024 年時,我們知道通膨已較高峰有所回落。我認為,正如我之前所說,我們預計的定價將大致與我們今年的工作一致。我們當然知道消費者對定價更加厭倦或厭倦,我們將繼續在定價決策中以消費者為主導,因為我們期待 2024 年,並知道環境將繼續具有競爭力。顯然,我們將與我們的特許經營商一起深思熟慮,我們期待他們在自己的餐廳中做出這些決定。

  • Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

    Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

  • Our next question is from Dennis Geiger with UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的丹尼斯蓋革。

  • Dennis Geiger - Director and Equity Research Analyst of Restaurants

    Dennis Geiger - Director and Equity Research Analyst of Restaurants

  • Great. Chris, wanted to just follow up on some of the color you just gave on the U.S. consumer and then some of that lower-income consumer, I think, managing the check a little bit. Just curious if you could elaborate anything more there on the consumer in the U.S. And is that check management largely been consistent with what you've seen in recent quarters? Or are you seeing any of the incidents or intensity there, pick up some? And ultimately, what does that mean as you kind of think about promotions and the evolving value options that you talk about in the U.S. this year.

    偉大的。克里斯,我想跟進你剛才對美國消費者以及一些低收入消費者的一些看法,我想,稍微管理一下支票。只是好奇您是否可以詳細說明有關美國消費者的更多信息,檢查管理是否與您最近幾個季度看到的情況基本一致?或者您是否看到了那裡的任何事件或強度,請挑選一些?最終,當你思考今年在美國談論的促銷活動和不斷變化的價值選擇時,這意味著什麼。

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure. I think consistent with what we talked about on the prior call, where you see the pressure with the U.S. consumer is that low-income consumer. So call it $45,000 and under. That consumer is pressured. From an industry standpoint, we actually saw that cohort decrease in the most recent quarter, particularly I think as eating at home has become more affordable. There's been much less pricing that's been taken more recently on packaged food. So you're seeing that eating at home is becoming more affordable that I think is putting some pressure from a IEO standpoint on that low-income consumer.

    當然。我認為與我們在之前的電話會議中討論的內容一致,你看到美國消費者面臨的壓力是低收入消費者。所以稱之為 45,000 美元及以下。那個消費者是有壓力的。從行業的角度來看,我們實際上看到最近一個季度的人潮減少,特別是我認為在家吃飯變得更便宜。最近包裝食品的定價要低得多。所以你會看到在家吃飯變得越來越便宜,我認為從 IEO 的角度來看,這給低收入消費者帶來了一些壓力。

  • If you think about middle income, high income, we're not seeing any real change in behavior with those. We continue to gain share with those groups. But the battleground is certainly with that low-income consumer.

    如果你考慮中等收入、高收入,我們沒有看到這些人的行為有任何真正的改變。我們繼續獲得這些群體的份額。但戰場肯定是低收入消費者。

  • And I think what you're going to see as you head into 2024 is probably more attention to what I would describe as affordability. So think about that as being absolute price point being probably more important for that consumer in a lower absolute price point to get them into the restaurants than maybe a value message, which is a 2 for $6 or something like that. Those probably are going to resonate a little bit less in '24, particularly we think in the front half with the consumer there may be something that's lower absolute price points.

    我認為,進入 2024 年,您可能會看到更多關注我所說的負擔能力。因此,考慮一下絕對價格點對於處於較低絕對價格點的消費者來說可能比價值資訊(6 美元 2 美元或類似的東西)更重要。這些在 24 年可能會減少一些共鳴,特別是我們認為在前半段消費者中可能會有一些絕對價格點較低的東西。

  • So that's -- we are set up well to be able to go after that. We have our D123 platform, as you know, and I think you're going to see probably some activity there in the U.S. at the local level to make sure we continue to provide good value for that low-income consumer.

    所以,我們已經做好了充分準備,能夠實現這個目標。如您所知,我們擁有 D123 平台,我認為您可能會看到美國地方層面的一些活動,以確保我們繼續為低收入消費者提供良好的價值。

  • Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

    Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

  • Our next question is from Sara Senatore with Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Sara Senatore。

  • Sara Harkavy Senatore - MD in Global Equity Research & Senior Analyst

    Sara Harkavy Senatore - MD in Global Equity Research & Senior Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about G&A and it came in actually just below the 2.2% of system-wide sales you guided to, which is true despite the fact that I suspect that the system-wide sales were lower than you might have expected in the fourth quarter, given the implications in the Middle East.

    我想詢問 G&A 的情況,它實際上略低於您指導的全系統銷售額的 2.2%,儘管我懷疑第四季度全系統銷售額低於您的預期,但這是事實考慮到對中東的影響。

  • And so I was just curious to what extent are you able to flex your G&A? I know you usually guide to percentage of system-wide sales, but trying to understand whether sort of internally you actually forecast more along the time -- along lines of dollar spend? And are you seeing any of the -- any improvements perhaps because of Accelerating the Arches? I'm curious to what extent you have flex there.

    所以我只是好奇你們能在多大程度上靈活調整一般管理費用?我知道你通常會指導整個系統的銷售額百分比,但試圖了解你在內部是否真的根據美元支出預測了更多的時間?您是否看到任何可能是由於加速拱門而帶來的任何改進?我很好奇你的彈性程度如何。

  • Ian Frederick Borden - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Ian Frederick Borden - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • Sara, it's Ian. Let me take that one. Well, look, I think you've heard me talk about this before. But the way we think about G&A is kind of in 2 broad buckets. I mean, firstly, we want to continue to work to run our business as efficiently as we can. We know we've got some opportunities in that area. It's why I talked about in our upfront remarks that we're going to continue to invest in the areas where we think we have strategic opportunities to drive greater efficiency. A lot of that work is going to be led by the Global Business Services organization that we stood up and is driving these transformation efforts in area like HR, finance, tech and getting after spend opportunities in areas like indirect sourcing.

    薩拉,是伊恩。讓我拿走那個。好吧,聽著,我想你以前聽過我談論過這個。但我們對一般行政費用的思考方式大致分為兩大類。我的意思是,首先,我們希望繼續努力盡可能有效率地經營我們的業務。我們知道我們在該領域有一些機會。這就是為什麼我在前面的評論中談到,我們將繼續投資於我們認為擁有策略機會來提高效率的領域。其中許多工作將由我們成立的全球商業服務組織領導,該組織正在推動人力資源、財務、技術等領域的轉型工作,並在間接採購等領域尋求支出機會。

  • So part of what we're focused on is continuing to make those strategic investments so that we can continue to drive greater efficiency in how we operate, which if you go back to the principles of kind of accelerating the organization, which was really what that whole initiative was designed around was how do we get faster, how do we get more innovative and how do we get more efficient in how we're running the business.

    因此,我們重點關注的部分內容是繼續進行這些策略性投資,以便我們能夠繼續提高營運效率,如果你回到加速組織的原則,這實際上就是整個計劃的設計圍繞的是我們如何變得更快、我們如何變得更具創新性以及我們如何在業務運營方面變得更有效率。

  • The second kind of broad area of G&A spend is obviously investing in the areas that we feel like we've got opportunity to drive growth and strong returns for the business. And part of running the business more efficiently is to make sure we have the resources available to invest behind the opportunities that we believe exist, and we continue to believe we've got significant opportunities. I think we've talked previously to the examples of kind of our tech platforms and digital capabilities where we continue to make significant investment. Those, I think, are really strong examples of the type of growth when you look at the growth mix that are coming from those investments and obviously continuing to drive strong returns for us, and we're going to continue obviously to invest behind those growth opportunity areas that we have.

    G&A 支出的第二個廣泛領域顯然是投資於我們認為有機會推動業務成長和強勁回報的領域。更有效地經營業務的一部分是確保我們擁有可用的資源來投資我們認為存在的機會,並且我們仍然相信我們擁有重要的機會。我想我們之前已經討論過我們繼續進行重大投資的技術平台和數位能力的例子。我認為,當你看到這些投資帶來的成長組合時,這些確實是成長類型的有力例子,並且顯然繼續為我們帶來強勁的回報,而且我們顯然將繼續投資支持這些成長我們擁有的機會領域。

  • And so I think that's -- over time, as you kind of look forward, I do believe we'll continue to be able to gain leverage in G&A as a percentage of sales. But I think certainly in the short term, our focus is going to be in those areas that I highlighted.

    因此,我認為,隨著時間的推移,正如你所期望的那樣,我確實相信我們將繼續能夠提高一般管理費用佔銷售額的比例。但我認為,從短期來看,我們的重點肯定是我強調的那些領域。

  • Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

    Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

  • Our next question is from Chris Carril with RBC.

    我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的克里斯·卡里爾。

  • Christopher Emilio Carril - Analyst

    Christopher Emilio Carril - Analyst

  • So just on McOpCo margins, I believe you mentioned you expect them to be relatively in line this year versus 2023. So can you expand maybe on some of the puts and takes around this outlook? Maybe any detail on U.S. versus IOM, your cost inflation outlook? And maybe finally, if and where you see opportunity for company margin upside?

    因此,就 McOpCo 的利潤率而言,我相信您提到您預計今年的利潤率與 2023 年相比會相對穩定。因此,您能否圍繞這一前景擴展一些看跌期權和看跌期權?也許有關於美國與國際移民組織的任何細節,以及您的成本通膨前景嗎?也許最後,您是否以及在哪裡看到公司利潤率上升的機會?

  • Ian Frederick Borden - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Ian Frederick Borden - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • Well, let me take that. Yes, you're right. I think as you said, in our opening comments, we talked about the fact that we think our '24 company-operated margin percent will be roughly in line with where we ended for 2023. I mean I think there are a few things that are going on, so I'll kind of talk about it, U.S. and then International.

    好吧,讓我接受。你是對的。我認為正如您所說,在我們的開場白中,我們談到了這樣一個事實,即我們認為我們24 年公司運營的利潤率將大致與我們2023 年結束時的水平一致。我的意思是,我認為有一些事情正在進行中,所以我會談談美國,然後是國際。

  • I mean I think in the U.S., if you look at kind of commodity inflation for '24, we think that will be in the low single-digit range. I think wage inflation probably in the mid- to higher single-digit range. Part of that is because of the impact of what we're going to have to work through in California, which I know you'll be aware of and the significant wage increases that come into effect there at the beginning of April.

    我的意思是,我認為在美國,如果你看看 24 年的商品通膨情況,我們認為這將處於較低的個位數範圍內。我認為薪資通膨可能在中位數到更高的個位數範圍內。部分原因是我們必須在加州完成的工作的影響,我知道你們會意識到這一點,以及四月初在那裡生效的大幅工資上漲。

  • I think internationally, on the commodity side, again, I think we expect commodity inflation to be in that low single-digit range. Wage inflation probably in the low to mid-single-digit range.

    我認為在國際上,在大宗商品方面,我認為我們預計大宗商品通膨將處於較低的個位數範圍內。薪資通膨可能在低至中個位數範圍內。

  • So obviously, we've still got kind of the current inflationary effects. And at the same time, we've got, obviously, carryover from much higher kind of inflation levels that we experienced as we work through 2023. So those are a bit of maybe kind of the -- kind of pressures.

    顯然,我們仍然受到當前通膨的影響。同時,顯然,我們在 2023 年工作期間經歷了更高的通膨水平,這些都可能是一種壓力。

  • Obviously, you've heard us talk about what we think from a sales perspective. So obviously, we're going to get a lift as we continue to grow sales through 2024 landing kind of where I said. But I think we remain really confident that we can continue to drive leverage in margins as we look forward as some of these inflationary pressures begin to settle on a more consistent basis. And we're able to continue to grow sales, which we're obviously really, really confident in our ability to do that with the plans and strategies that we've got in place.

    顯然,您已經聽過我們從銷售角度談論我們的想法。顯然,隨著我們的銷售額持續成長,到 2024 年達到我所說的目標,我們的銷售量將會得到提振。但我認為,隨著部分通膨壓力開始在更一致的基礎上得到緩解,我們仍然非常有信心能夠繼續提高利潤率。我們能夠繼續增加銷售額,我們顯然非常非常有信心透過我們已經制定的計劃和策略來實現這一目標。

  • Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

    Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

  • We have time for one more question from Lauren Silberman with Deutsche Bank.

    我們還有時間回答德意志銀行勞倫·西爾伯曼 (Lauren Silberman) 的另一個問題。

  • Lauren Danielle Silberman - Research Analyst

    Lauren Danielle Silberman - Research Analyst

  • Just a follow-up. Given the modest pricing in '24 in the U.S., do you expect positive traffic then?

    只是後續行動。鑑於 24 年美國的定價適中,您預計屆時會有積極的流量嗎?

  • And then my actual question is on the digital side. Can you talk about any changes as it relates to your approach, specifically to value offers as you look ahead into '24 in the U.S.? Have a lot of promotions on the app also driving higher ticket, frequency. So just -- to what extent is digital marketing accretive to franchisees? And just any thoughts there.

    我的實際問題是數字方面的。您能否談談與您的方法相關的任何變化,特別是在您展望「24 世紀」美國時所提供的價值方面的變化?該應用程式上有很多促銷活動,也推動了更高的門票和頻率。那麼,數位行銷對加盟商的增值作用有多大?還有任何想法。

  • Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

    Christopher J. Kempczinski - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure. Well, as you know, we don't give traffic guidance. So we won't get into kind of a specific what do we expect to see in traffic. But I think it's fair to say that the success in this industry is always about having balance and you need to have both traffic growth and you need to have price growth. That's the long-term formula for success. So that's kind of what we use as our North Star.

    當然。嗯,如您所知,我們不提供交通指導。因此,我們不會具體討論我們期望在流量中看到什麼。但我認為可以公平地說,這個產業的成功始終在於保持平衡,既需要流量成長,又需要價格成長。這就是成功的長期秘訣。這就是我們用作北極星的東西。

  • I think we're set up really well to have that kind of balance. As I look at our business around the world, our brand is in great shape. We are seeing some of our highest customer satisfaction scores around the world. We're seeing our operations in almost every single country around the world get better as we execute our Performance and Customer Excellence program or PACE, as you know it. I think globally, in Q4, we saw service times improve by 10 seconds.

    我認為我們已經做好了實現這種平衡的準備。當我審視我們在世界各地的業務時,我們的品牌狀況良好。我們看到世界各地的一些客戶滿意度得分最高。如您所知,隨著我們執行績效和客戶卓越計劃(PACE),我們發現我們在全球幾乎每個國家的營運都在改善。我認為在第四季度,全球範圍內的服務時間縮短了 10 秒。

  • And we've got very good alignment with our franchisees. In most of our big markets, we're seeing healthy franchising cash flows. In the U.S., franchising cash flows were up roughly $35,000 last year despite all the price headwinds.

    我們與我們的特許經營商有著非常好的合作關係。在我們的大多數大型市場中,我們都看到健康的特許經營現金流。在美國,儘管面臨各種價格阻力,去年特許經營現金流仍增加了約 35,000 美元。

  • So I think we're set up well as a business to have that balance right as part of our long-term focus.

    因此,我認為我們作為一家企業已經建立了良好的基礎,可以將這種平衡作為我們長期重點的一部分。

  • Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

    Mike Cieplak - Corporate SVP, Treasurer & IR

  • Okay. Thank you, Chris. Thanks, Ian, and thanks, everyone, for joining. Have a great day.

    好的。謝謝你,克里斯。謝謝伊恩,也謝謝大家的加入。祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes McDonald's Corporation Investor Call. You may now disconnect, and have a great day.

    麥當勞公司投資者電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開連接,祝您有美好的一天。