Moelis & Co (MC) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon and welcome to the Moelis & Company Earnings Conference call for the first quarter of 2025. To begin, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Matt Sucroft.

下午好，歡迎參加 Moelis & Company 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。首先，我將把電話轉給馬特·蘇克羅夫特先生。

Good afternoon and thank you for joining us from Moelis & Company's first quarter 2025 financial results conference call. On the phone today are Ken Moelis, Chairman and CEO; and Chris Callesano, Chief Financial Officer.

下午好，感謝您參加 Moelis & Company 2025 年第一季財務業績電話會議。今天打電話的是董事長兼執行長 Ken Moelis 和財務長 Chris Callesano。

Before we begin, I would like to note that the remarks made on this call may contain certain forward-looking statements which are subject to various risks and uncertainties, including those identified from time-to-time in the risk factors section of Moelis & Companies' filings with the SEC. Actual results could differ materially from those currently anticipated.

在我們開始之前，我想指出，本次電話會議中的言論可能包含某些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受各種風險和不確定性的影響，包括 Moelis & Companies 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中風險因素部分不時確定的風險和不確定性。實際結果可能與目前預期的結果有重大差異。

The firm undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Our comments today include references to certain adjusted financial measures. We believe these measures, presented together with comparable GAAP measures are useful to investors to compare our results across several periods and to better understand our operating results.

該公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。我們今天的評論提到了某些調整後的財務指標。我們相信，這些指標與可比較的 GAAP 指標一起呈現，有助於投資者比較我們不同時期的業績，並更好地了解我們的經營業績。

The reconciliation of these adjusted financial measures with the relevant GAAP financial information and other information required by Reg G is provided in the firm's earnings release, which can be found on our investor relations website at investors.moelis.com.

這些調整後的財務指標與相關 GAAP 財務資訊以及 Reg G 要求的其他資訊的對帳表已在公司的收益報告中提供，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站 investors.moelis.com 上找到該報告。

I will now send the call over to Chris, to discuss our results.

我現在將把電話轉給克里斯，討論我們的結果。

Thanks, Matt. Good afternoon, everyone. On today's call, I will go through our financial results, and then Ken will comment further on the business. We achieved revenues of $307 million in the first quarter, representing an increase of 41% over the prior year period. The revenue increase is attributable to growth in M&A and capital markets versus the prior year period.

謝謝，馬特。大家下午好。在今天的電話會議上，我將介紹我們的財務業績，然後肯將對業務進一步發表評論。我們第一季的營收為 3.07 億美元，比去年同期成長 41%。收入成長歸因於併購和資本市場較去年同期的成長。

Moving to expenses, our first quarter compensation expense ratio was 69%. As the year progresses, our compensation ratio will depend on the trajectory of revenues and the pace and magnitude of hiring throughout the year. Our first quarter non-com ratio was 19%. The quarterly year-over-year growth in non-compensation dollars is primarily attributable to increased costs associated with our investment in client conferences, many of which occurred during the first quarter.

談到費用，我們第一季的薪資費用率為 69%。隨著時間的推移，我們的薪酬比率將取決於收入的走勢以及全年招募的速度和規模。我們第一季的虧損率為 19%。非薪酬支出的季度同比增長主要歸因於我們對客戶會議的投資相關成本的增加，其中許多發生在第一季。

As indicated previously, we currently anticipate the full year growth of non-compensation expense to be approximately 15%. Moving to taxes. Our underlying corporate tax rate was 29.5% for the quarter before the discrete tax benefit related to the vesting of equity awards. Adding in this discrete benefit resulted in an overall net tax benefit for the quarter. Regarding capital allocation, the board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.65 per share. And lastly, we continue to maintain a strong balance sheet with no funded debt.

如前所述，我們目前預計非薪酬費用的全年增長約為 15%。轉向稅收。在與股權獎勵歸屬相關的單獨稅收優惠之前，本季我們的基本企業稅率為 29.5%。加上這項單獨收益，本季就有整體淨稅收收益。關於資本配置，董事會宣布每股定期季度股息為 0.65 美元。最後，我們繼續保持強勁的資產負債表，沒有已償債務。

I will now turn the call over to Ken.

現在我將把電話轉給肯。

Thanks, Chris, and welcome to your first earnings call as CEO, CFO, sorry, not CEO. As we finished the first quarter, we had record new business origination and a record pipeline. Our go to market, including the maturation of our investments in tech and energy, are extremely strong, and we finished the quarter with a very bullish point of view for 2025.

謝謝，克里斯，歡迎參加你作為執行長、財務長（抱歉，不是執行長）的第一次財報電話會議。在第一季結束時，我們創造了新業務發起數量和管道數量的新紀錄。我們的市場開拓，包括我們在技術和能源領域的投資日趨成熟，都非常強勁，並且我們在本季度結束時對 2025 年抱有非常樂觀的看法。

However, the new wave of volatility introduced into the capital markets post April 2nd has definitely slowed M&A transaction activity. Although the scale and time frame is hard to predict, we believe this is a temporary phenomenon, and we are planning our business accordingly. The silver lining is that no matter the outcome, our clients will need strategic advice, and we turn to our team to help them better understand their capital needs and how they can adapt or transform their business models.

然而，4 月 2 日之後資本市場出現的新一輪波動無疑減緩了併購交易活動。雖然規模和時間框架很難預測，但我們相信這只是暫時現象，我們正在據此規劃我們的業務。值得慶幸的是，無論結果如何，我們的客戶都需要策略建議，而我們則依靠我們的團隊來幫助他們更好地了解他們的資本需求以及如何調整或轉變他們的商業模式。

We continue to invest in the growth of our private funds advisory business. Following the announcement earlier this year of a senior banker to lead the team, we have a robust pipeline of additional senior talent and expect to have more news on that in the coming weeks. Private capital solutions and continuation vehicles will continue to be an important liquidity tool for sponsors, and our goal is to be the market leader in the space.

我們持續投資於私募基金諮詢業務的成長。繼今年稍早宣布由一位高級銀行家領導團隊之後，我們擁有了一批強大的額外高級人才，預計未來幾週將有更多相關消息。私募資本解決方案和延續工具將繼續成為發起人的重要流動性工具，我們的目標是成為該領域的市場領導者。

We also remain focused on adding talent to fill other areas of strategic importance to the firm. Technology focused managing director based in Europe recently joined the firm and one focused on business services in Europe will also join shortly. We're optimistic about the road ahead and are well positioned. Remember, there are no tariffs on relationships and the world class advice we deliver to our clients every day. We have no debt and a strong cash position. And our talent, breadth of experience, and culture of collaboration are stronger than ever before.

我們也將繼續致力於引進人才來填補對公司具有策略重要性的其他領域。一位專注於歐洲技術的董事總經理最近加入了該公司，一位專注於歐洲商業服務的董事總經理也將很快加入。我們對未來的道路充滿樂觀，並且已做好充分準備。請記住，我們每天為客戶提供的關係和世界一流的建議是沒有關稅的。我們沒有債務，而且現金狀況良好。我們的人才、豐富的經驗和協作文化比以往任何時候都更強大。

And with that, I'll open it up for questions.

現在，我將開始回答大家的提問。

(Operator Instructions) Devin Ryan, Citizens JMP.

（操作員指示）Devin Ryan，公民 JMP。

First question, Ken, great to hear about obviously the backlogs where they are right now and appreciate we're in a pretty uncertain moment here. So I guess there's still a little bit of TBD on the year. But I'm curious, just with the backlog, at what point do they get canceled versus just pushed out? And I guess I'm just trying to think through, there's a lot of competing forces here. Sponsors have a lot of pressure on them to do something with kind of the long duration of their portfolio today.

第一個問題，肯，很高興聽到他們目前積壓的情況，並意識到我們正處於一個非常不確定的時刻。所以我想今年還有一些待確定的事情。但我很好奇，由於積壓，它們什麼時候會被取消，而不是被推遲？我想我只是試著思考一下，這裡有很多相互競爭的力量。如今，發起人面臨著巨大的壓力，需要對其投資組合的長期性採取一些措施。

So it feels like there's a lot of pressure there. At the same time, volatile asset prices make it challenging. So I just love to get a sense of how the backlogs kind of move from here and what potentially would cancel them, if at all?

所以感覺那裡壓力很大。同時，資產價格的波動也使其面臨挑戰。所以我很想知道積壓訂單接下來會如何變化，以及哪些因素可能會取消它們？

It's a tough question to answer. It's a very specific policy dynamic that's going on right now. The reason I believe it's temporary because it's in the control. I'm not saying it might not work out to be exactly what the markets want, but it is in the control of the administration. Whereas I look back to prior problems like COVID and even the GFC back in 08, they seem to be outside the control of an individual, COVID definitely was.

這是一個很難回答的問題。這是目前正在發生的非常具體的政策動態。我認為這是暫時的，因為它在控制之中。我並不是說它可能不會完全符合市場的需求，但它是在政府的控制範圍內。而我回顧之前的問題，例如 COVID，甚至 08 年的全球金融危機，它們似乎都超出了個人的控制範圍，COVID 肯定是這樣的。

We didn't know what was going to happen, and it was very hard to know when the end would come. We've lost some from the quarter end backlog that I talked about, we have lost some. Strategic are -- might be quicker to put down their pencils on supply chain affected transactions. Sponsors will put things on hold. I think the go to market on sponsors that need liquidity are probably timing.

我們不知道會發生什麼，而且很難知道什麼時候會結束。正如我所說，由於季度末積壓訂單，我們已經損失了一些，我們已經損失了一些。策略方面－可能會更快地對受供應鏈影響的交易採取行動。贊助商將暫停一切活動。我認為需要流動性的贊助商進入市場可能時機已到。

Those -- you can't hold them forever. The sponsor liquidity backlog has been there for a while, and people are going to have to push the market. So I'd say the majority of those, I think, are on delay and pushback just because they have to be. But there are some transactions that have gotten shelved. And we do -- we no longer have them in backlog.

那些——你不可能永遠擁有它們。發起人流動性積壓已經存在了一段時間，人們將不得不推動市場。所以我想說，其中大多數都是因為不得不這麼做而被拖延和推遲。但有些交易已被擱置。而且我們確實如此——我們不再積壓這些訂單。

So our backlog is down from 331 as a result of it, and it's really hard to say what the effect of the day-to-day volatility. You have two things, the policy volatility and in the market volatility in pricing, interest rate volatility. So that's all taking a toll on it. But for now, we've lost some, but I would say the vast majority are in pushback, I think, or time frame pushback.

因此，我們的積壓訂單量從 331 下降，很難說日常波動會產生什麼影響。有兩件事，政策波動和市場定價波動，即利率波動。所以這一切都會對其造成損害。但就目前而言，我們確實失去了一些，但我想說絕大多數都是在反擊中，或是在時間框架內受到反擊。

Yes. Got it. Okay. Thanks Ken, really helpful. And then just a follow-up on the restructuring business. Just great to get a little bit of a maybe flavor for what you guys are seeing there, kind of whether there's been any tone shift just with some of the uncertainty in the markets. Anything around tariffs? I'm not sure if anything has changed there. And just the trajectory of kind of new mandates coming in, in that business as well. .

是的。知道了。好的。謝謝 Ken，真的很有幫助。然後只是對重組業務的後續跟進。很高興能對你們所看到的情況有一點了解，例如市場中的一些不確定性是否帶來了基調的轉變。有關於關稅的事情嗎？我不確定那裡是否有任何變化。而這只是該產業中新任務的軌跡。。

I think, again, the first quarter, it's a tail. Remember, the tariff thing was April 2. So you sort of have a first quarter in which you were going along in a different world than the next two or three weeks before this call. So I'd say the first quarter restructuring was kind of flat. It was what we were expecting, which was there's a good economy, the strong consumer, interest rates seem to be coming down.

我認為，第一季度，這是一個尾巴。請記住，關稅事宜是在 4 月 2 日。因此，第一季的情況與此次電話會議召開前的兩三週相比有所不同。所以我認為第一季的重組情況比較穩定。這正是我們所期待的，經濟狀況良好，消費者強勁，利率似乎正在下降。

So we weren't expecting a big year out of restructuring. Now you're talking about a two-to-three-week period since then in which, yes, there are lots of conversations starting to develop about things that might happen but haven't happened but could happen. So that conversation is picking up. Have there been a substantial increase in mandates due to events around April 2? I'd say no, I'd call it an increase of significant conversation.

因此，我們並不期望今年的重組會帶來巨大的成功。現在您談論的是從那時起的兩到三週的時間，是的，在這段時間裡，人們開始談論很多可能發生但尚未發生但有可能發生的事情。因此，這場對話正在升溫。由於 4 月 2 日左右發生的事件，授權數量是否大幅增加？我認為不是，我認為這是重要對話的增加。

More so, I think it's in the capital market side where people are, -- companies are trying to figure out if they've got to fund inventory purchases, supply chain transactions that have tariffs associated with them. So working capital financing has gone up. They have to actually finance the acquisition of supply chain goods that might have gone up a significant amount due to tariffs, et cetera.

更重要的是，我認為在資本市場方面，人們——公司正在試圖弄清楚他們是否必須為與關稅相關的庫存採購和供應鏈交易提供資金。因此營運資金融資增加。他們實際上必須為採購供應鏈商品提供資金，而這些商品的價格可能會因為關稅等原因而大幅上漲。

I think there's almost been more conversation around financing options than this idea of going straight to restructuring. And that's why we kind of combine the two when we talk about it, because they kind of subsume each other. And that's where we are, I think, where financing is probably the primary thing being talked about, not quite yet to restructuring.

我認為有關融資選擇的討論幾乎比直接進行重組的想法更多。這就是為什麼我們在談論它時會將兩者結合起來，因為它們有點相互包容。我認為，我們現在討論的重點可能是融資，而不是重組。

Kenneth Worthington, JP Morgan.

肯尼斯‧沃辛頓，摩根大通。

Hey, great. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. Ken, I would love to hear your thoughts when thinking about the volatility and the impact, looking at things three ways. One is sort of geographic, US versus Europe and Asia. Any sort of differences that the volatility has sort of brought out? I know it's really recent, but thus far, sponsor versus non-sponsor and then big versus small, what your guess is.

嘿，太棒了。午安.感謝您回答這些問題。肯，我很想聽聽你對波動性和影響的看法，從三個角度來看問題。一個是地理上的，美國與歐洲和亞洲。波動性帶來了什麼差異嗎？我知道這確實是最近的事，但到目前為止，贊助商與非贊助商，大贊助商與小贊助商，你的猜測是什麼。

What's sort of more resilient, what's more vulnerable? What are your thoughts? And to the extent you've heard, what have you heard?

什麼更有彈性，什麼比較脆弱？您的想法是什麼？就您所聽到的而言，您聽到了什麼？

And Ken, I think what you're asking me is post April 2, right? Because they're two different environments.

肯，我想你問我的是 4 月 2 日之後的事情，對嗎？因為它們是兩個不同的環境。

Post April 2, yes.

4 月 2 日之後，是的。

So look, I actually think -- again, I always say the US is the most dynamic market, but I think Europe is an interesting market post April 2. They've been less effective. They're trading better. They don't have some of the supply chain issues. So I think transactions in Europe haven't hiccupped as much. There are obviously less transactions to begin with, but they're not directly in the line of fire right now.

所以，我實際上認為——我總是說美國是最具活力的市場，但我認為 4 月 2 日之後歐洲是一個有趣的市場。它們的效率較低。他們的交易情況更好了。他們沒有遇到一些供應鏈問題。所以我認為歐洲的交易並沒有出現太多問題。顯然一開始交易就比較少，但現在還沒有直接受到威脅。

And there have been some indications that the economies in Europe are going to spend some capital and take some actions that I think could be actually positive for Europe. So I'll say that. That's a three-week read. Remember, I'm reading the tea leaves while they're still falling off the tree, I would say. Asia, I haven't seen. Obviously, China, Asia is going to be very different.

有跡象表明，歐洲各經濟體將投入一些資金並採取一些行動，我認為這實際上對歐洲有利。所以我會這麼說。這是一個為期三週的閱讀。請記住，我會說，當茶葉還在從樹上掉下來的時候，我就在觀察茶葉。亞洲，我沒看過。顯然，中國和亞洲將會有很大不同。

And I don't know that I have enough an update to tell you what happens to Hong Kong, Asia. Japan, Asia, by the way, seems pretty -- there's a lot of optimism around Japan as a market. But again, we're early on, and I assume China is going to be -- there's going to be -- without resolution, there will be a lot of difficulties out of China. I know you said big versus small. What was the second...

我不知道我是否有足夠的最新消息來告訴你香港、亞洲發生了什麼事。順便說一句，亞洲的日本看起來相當不錯——人們對日本市場充滿樂觀。但是，我們才剛開始討論這個問題，我認為，如果不解決這個問題，中國將會面臨許多困難。我知道您說的是大與小。第二個是什麼...

Sponsor versus non-sponsor.

贊助商與非贊助商。

I think if you're, -- it depends on the sector, right? If you're American based, if you're not a supply chain-oriented transaction. A lot of that's going forward. There is a lot of financing available. The private credit is out there looking to put capital to work. The bank market, little more difficult, but private credit is out there. And if you have a health care business in the United States, it's not affected by supply chain, you're probably going to get your transactions done, and that's both strategic and sponsor.

我認為這取決於行業，對嗎？如果您位於美國，如果您不是以供應鏈為導向的交易。其中很多都在向前推進。有大量融資可用。私人信貸正在尋求將資本投入使用。銀行市場稍微困難一些，但私人信貸就在那裡。如果你在美國有醫療保健業務，它不受供應鏈的影響，你可能會完成交易，這既具有戰略意義，也具有贊助意義。

I would actually think that it's more of what sector you're talking about than strategic versus sponsor? Are you affected? And when I say affected, I think there are people now trying to figure out kind of third derivatives. If there's no containers shipped for another month, because of the tariffs, you're starting to think of second and third derivatives.

我實際上認為您談論的更多的是哪個行業，而不是策略與贊助商？你受到影響了嗎？當我說受到影響時，我認為現在有人正在試圖找出第三種衍生品。如果由於關稅原因，下個月都沒有貨櫃運輸，您就會開始考慮第二和第三種衍生產品。

So I think the effects might get more widespread than people think. But right now, I don't see a big difference in those so long as you're talking about the effect of the supply chain. And I would say that kind of goes to your big versus small, which it's very hard to have. You don't have a lot of big companies that don't have a supply chain that is complicated.

所以我認為其影響可能比人們想像的更為廣泛。但目前，只要談論的是供應鏈的影響，我看不出它們之間有太大的差異。我想說，這涉及到大與小之間的對比，這是很難做到的。大多數大公司都擁有複雜的供應鏈。

But just by the characterization of being large companies, they have a very good chance of encountering a supply chain issue that would cause a transaction to go on hold. And I think it's because it's such a digital outcome on the policy that it's very hard to underwrite. People companies and sponsors can underwrite uncertainty, but not when it's digital and in the total outcome of the administration, I think.

但僅僅由於它們是大公司的特點，它們很有可能遇到導致交易暫停的供應鏈問題。我認為，正是因為保單的數位化結果太過複雜，所以很難承保。我認為，個人公司和贊助商可以承擔不確定性，但當不確定性是數位化的並且影響到政府的整體結果時，他們就不能承擔不確定性了。

So yes, a lot of those are going to go on hold. And it's going to it really starts with easier supply chain effect -- are you affected by the supply chain? I think that's where it breaks.

所以是的，很多事情都會被擱置。它實際上將從更簡單的供應鏈效應開始——您是否受到供應鏈的影響？我認為這就是問題所在。

Okay, great. I feel like that was three questions. So I won't be take. I'll be queue. I appreciate it.

好的，太好了。我覺得那是三個問題。所以我不會被接受。我會排隊。我很感激。

Thanks.

謝謝。

James Yaro, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的詹姆斯·亞羅。

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. So I just wanted to touch again quickly on CEO confidence. Ken, you've been through plenty of cycles and so you've seen various exogenous shocks. Maybe you could just help us think about how long it has taken on average perhaps in historic episodes that you think are most similar to this with the sort of [exogenous] shock before CEOs come back to the table and engaging M&A transactions.

嘿，下午好。感謝您回答這些問題。所以我只是想再次快速談談 CEO 信心。肯，你經歷過很多周期，所以你見過各種外部衝擊。也許您可以幫助我們思考一下，在您認為與此最相似的歷史事件中，執行長們重新回到談判桌並參與併購交易之前，平均需要多長時間才能經歷這種[外部]衝擊。

Well, I'm trying to -- I'm now trying to think of a good analogy. You're supposed to have a 40-year history and come up with a great analogy. And I don't have a great one because the last two or three I remember or COVID, regional banking, even the Fed hiking interest rates at the GFC before that. And you can even go back to some of -- let's say, I remember when the Iraq war shut down it. People were out on roadshows and you kind of blew a whistle and said, everybody come back home.

好吧，我正在嘗試——我現在正在嘗試想一個好的比喻。你應該有 40 年的歷史，並且能想出一個很好的類比。我並沒有想到什麼好的辦法，因為我記得最近兩三年，或者說是新冠疫情、地區銀行業務，甚至聯準會在那之前的全球金融危機期間都提高了利率。你甚至可以回顧一下——比如說，我記得伊拉克戰爭導致它關閉的時候。人們出去路演，你吹了聲口哨，說，大家都回家吧。

This was not, by the way, this was the first Iraq war, and you just signal out, everybody come home. There's nothing to do until we figure out what's going to happen here. But that was a more complicated decision. I really believe this -- my gut on this is it will be short, sharp because there will be a policy outcome. That policy outcome could be very negative, or it could move on very quickly.

順便說一句，這不是第一次伊拉克戰爭，你只需發出信號，讓所有人回家。在我們弄清楚接下來會發生什麼之前，我們什麼都做不了。但這是一個更複雜的決定。我確實相信這一點——我的直覺是，這將是短暫而尖銳的，因為將會有一個政策結果。該政策結果可能非常負面，也可能很快就會改變。

And I think it's in control, right? We're not waiting to see, is COVID a disease that will rampage throughout the plan and have no solution. We're -- we sort of have people could call it off tomorrow if they wanted to, right? You go back almost with some shocks to the system. So it is a directed policy decision. My belief is that if you tell me somebody stopped their fingers and all of the policy was settled, I believe M&A would return very rapidly, very rapidly.

我認為一切都在掌控之中，對嗎？我們並不是在等待，看看 COVID 是否是一種會在整個計劃中肆虐且沒有解決方案的疾病。我們——如果他們願意的話，我們可以讓人們明天取消它，對嗎？你幾乎帶著一些對系統的衝擊回去了。所以這是一個有針對性的政策決定。我相信，如果你告訴我有人停止了他們的手指並且所有的政策都得到了解決，我相信併購將會非常迅速地回歸。

People have growth plans. They have strategic things they want to affect, even what I just talked about, about our own firm. I mean, we have a deal slowdown and yet we are very actively hiring in private capital advisory. We are hiring into our -- we are hiring into a world that is going to be very active in M&A. And I think that tells you what I think about the world.

人們有成長計畫。他們想要影響一些策略性的事情，甚至是我剛才談到的關於我們自己公司的事情。我的意思是，我們的交易速度有所放緩，但我們仍在積極招募私人資本顧問。我們正在招募人才，進入一個併購活動非常活躍的世界。我想這告訴了你我對世界的看法。

Don't look what I say, look what I do. And I am going to continue to put together a team that is ready to advise as soon as this policy situation is over. Because I think it will snap back pretty quickly to an active deal market where people will want to execute on their plans that they've been waiting to execute on and got disrupted. So I think it will be pretty quick is the answer.

不要看我說了什麼，看我做了什麼。我將繼續組建一個團隊，準備在這項政策情勢結束後立即提供建議。因為我認為它會很快恢復到一個活躍的交易市場，人們會想要執行他們一直在等待執行但卻被打亂的計劃。所以我認為答案是會很快。

Okay. That's super clear. Maybe just another one on restructuring here. So within restructuring, you've seen a lot of the activity over the recent years be driven by liability management. I think a significant portion of that has been refinancing of a sponsor portfolio company debt stacks. So let's just say we do end up with a harder landing. How would you think about the trajectory for restructuring revenue?

好的。這非常清楚。也許這只是另一個關於重組的例子。因此，在重組領域，你會看到近年來許多活動都是由負債管理所推動的。我認為其中很大一部分是發起人投資組合公司債務的再融資。因此，我們只能說最終我們確實會遭遇一次更硬的著陸。您如何看待重組收入的軌跡？

Obviously, liability management exercises are shorter in duration, and chapter 11 and traditional bankruptcy are longer, and the fees are back-end weighted. So how would you think about the path for restructuring in a weaker economic scenario, if that's what we end up with?

顯然，負債管理練習的持續時間較短，而第 11 章和傳統破產的持續時間較長，費用是後端加權的。那麼，如果我們最終面臨經濟疲軟的局面，您如何看待重組的路徑？

Yes. I think a lot of it would be liability management. I believe as opposed to the restructuring environment, let's say, you go back 10-years ago in the GFC and there's so much more equity inside of -- in most sponsored deals now have more than 50% of the purchase price in equity. It just leaves you a lot of value to go to private capital or alternative sources and structure some pretty interesting securities to extend out the runway and try to figure out, is this a temporary shock to the system?

是的。我認為其中很大一部分是責任管理。我認為，與重組環境相反，假設你回到 10 年前的全球金融危機，那時的股權要多得多——現在大多數贊助交易中，股權佔購買價格的 50% 以上。它只是給你留下了很多價值，讓你去私人資本或其他來源，並建立一些相當有趣的證券來延長跑道，並試圖弄清楚，這是對系統的暫時衝擊嗎？

And as I said, everybody would prefer high-cost debt to Chapter 11. There's no choice between those two. And I just think that you don't have an over levered -- when I say you don't have an over levered balance sheet, you might have leverage vis-a-vis the cash flow, but some of these companies were valued at 15 times to 18 times EBITDA. So they may have cash flow difficulties, but the valuation, the amount of equity put in under the value, I think, will be -- make liability management a very interesting part, and that will be where all the activity is, I think.

正如我所說，每個人都寧願選擇高成本債務，而不是選擇破產保護。這兩者之間沒有選擇的餘地。我只是認為，你們沒有過度槓桿—​​—當我說你們沒有過度槓桿的資產負債表時，你們可能對現金流有槓桿，但其中一些公司的估值是 EBITDA 的 15 倍到 18 倍。因此，他們可能會面臨現金流困難，但估值，即低於價值的股權數量，我認為，將使負債管理成為一個非常有趣的部分，而且我認為，這將是所有活動的重點。

Unless you have a tremendously unexpected continuation of tariffs that are so difficult that it actually does disrupt the whole global order for a long period of time. That would be the alternative that we really do have a long-term, very punitive tariff system that really -- that is -- really does disrupt American business. I don't expect that.

除非出現意想不到的持續關稅，這種關稅非常困難，實際上會在很長一段時間內擾亂整個全球秩序。否則，我們確實會有一個長期的、非常嚴厲的關稅制度，這確實會擾亂美國的商業。我並不指望這一點。

Okay. Super clear. Just one ticky-tacky one. Do you -- could you give us the split of revenue this quarter, perhaps across M&A, cap markets and restructuring?

好的。超級清晰。只是一個俗氣的一個。您能否告訴我們本季的營收分佈情況，例如併購、資本市場和重組？

It's about 2/3 M&A and 1/3 cap markets and restructuring. And again, I'm going to combine those 2 because they really are a blindable item.

其中約 2/3 為併購，1/3 為資本市場和重組。再次，我將把這兩者結合起來，因為它們確實是可致盲的物品。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Brendan O'Brien, Wolfe Research.

布倫丹·奧布萊恩（Brendan O'Brien），沃爾夫研究公司。

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I just want to talk about the recruiting backdrop. I know that recruiting this year was expected to be focused on the build-out of your private capital advisory team, which it sounds like you're off to a good start on. But given activity at the start of the year has been a bit slower. I just want to get a sense as to whether you're seeing any improvement in the recruiting environment and whether you might look to lean in more aggressively than you expected at the start of the year.

午安.感謝您回答我的問題。我只想談談招聘背景。我知道今年的招募重點是組建您的私人資本諮詢團隊，聽起來您在這方面已經有了一個好的開始。但考慮到年初的活動速度有點慢。我只是想了解一下，您是否看到招募環境有所改善，以及您是否會比年初預期的更積極地採取行動。

Again, you're talking about a three-week period. And so because the first quarter, I think everybody is pretty bullish. It was going to be a great year for everybody. I haven't seen a dramatic change in the last three weeks. I think it would be too soon for almost for me to see it. But we're seeing good talent. I think, again, one of the things I always talk about is we are an unlevered company with a lot of excess capital.

再說一遍，您說的是三週的時間。因此，因為第一季度，我認為每個人都非常樂觀。對每個人來說，這都將是偉大的一年。過去三週我並沒有看到任何顯著的變化。我認為現在看到它還為時過早。但我們看到了優秀的人才。我想，我經常談論的事情之一是，我們是一家擁有大量過剩資本的無槓桿公司。

Most of the big banks are very heavily levered whether, -- they are deposit institutions with 9:1 leverage. And so I do think as -- if the world stays this volatile, I continue to be -- I believe the talent will leave 9:1 levered institutions that have mismatched deposits versus assets and liabilities and are very shaky in a volatile -- I think people have learned that no matter what you're told, those balance sheets are not as clean as they're portrayed in a shaky, volatile world.

大多數大銀行的槓桿率都非常高，它們都是槓桿率為 9:1 的存款機構。因此，我確實認為——如果世界繼續如此動盪，我會繼續——我相信人才將離開槓桿率為 9:1 的機構，這些機構的存款與資產和負債不匹配，在動蕩的環境中非常不穩定——我認為人們已經認識到，無論你被告知什麼，這些資產負債表並不像動盪、動蕩的世界中描繪的那樣乾淨。

As I said, if you were 10:1 levered right now, I don't know any asset that I own that's not down 10% since April 2. So you'd have to wonder about how you can be 10:1 levered and say -- and be confident in your balance sheet. So I think we'll be the beneficiary of that. It's one of the reasons we keep a very strong balance sheet.

正如我所說，如果你現在的槓桿率為 10:1，那麼我不知道我擁有的任何資產自 4 月 2 日以來沒有下跌 10%。因此，您一定會想知道如何才能實現 10:1 的槓桿率，並且對您的資產負債表充滿信心。所以我認為我們將從中受益。這是我們維持強勁資產負債表的原因之一。

We know it's attractive to that banker that is looking where to place their lifetime, their family and their lifetime future career. And I think more and more people look at it and go, yes, that's where I want to be. So we keep -- that's one of the reasons we do keep our balance sheet so strong. And so I don't see a big change right now. We're going to go after the private capital advisory situation very hard.

我們知道，它對那些正在尋找自己的一生、家人和未來事業歸宿的銀行家來說很有吸引力。我認為越來越多的人看到它後會說，是的，這就是我想要的。所以我們保持——這是我們保持資產負債表如此強勁的原因之一。所以我現在看不到有什麼大的改變。我們將大力推動私人資本諮詢業務。

We'll fill in, but we're always planning on filling in some of our other places, but you'll see us be strong in private capital. And I think we have a good line of sight into some very strategic hires right now that I can't talk about.

我們會填補，但我們一直計劃填補我們其他一些地方，但你會看到我們在私人資本方面很強大。我認為我們現在對一些非常具有戰略意義的招聘有了很好的了解，但我不能談論這些。

That's great. And then for my follow-up, I just wanted to touch on the comp ratio. I understand there's a lot of unknowns at the moment and the accrual is at a reflection of like the bifurcated potentially outcomes of this year. But I was hoping you could help us or help frame how to think about the level of revenue growth needed to keep your comp ratio flat year-on-year or maybe like what the breakeven point is.

那太棒了。然後，對於我的後續問題，我只想談談補償比率。我知道目前有很多未知數，而應計數字反映了今年可能出現的兩種結果。但我希望您能幫助我們，或幫助我們制定如何思考保持同店銷售額同比持平所需的收入增長水平，或者盈虧平衡點是多少。

I'm going to try to stay away from the algorithm. Last year, we were at a point where we had invested a lot in the tech group, and we have made so much investment. We had to give you a road map, and I was very nervous that we've given you the right road map because there's so many movable things. So I want -- I'm not going to try to get back into that because it will, how fast we hire people, how long this stays, how rapidly -- if this is a six-week downturn.

我將嘗試遠離演算法。去年，我們對科技集團進行了大量的投資，並且做出了巨大的投資。我們必須給你一份路線圖，而且我非常緊張，我們是否給了你正確的路線圖，因為有太多可移動的東西。所以我想要——我不會試圖回到那個狀態，因為它會，我們僱用員工的速度有多快，這種情況會持續多久，速度有多快——如果這是一個為期六週的低迷期。

And then it rapidly springs back like I'm saying, I'm going to continue to build pretty significantly for what I think are a strong next 12-months is really what I want to do anyway. I think it's just too volatile, and there are too many moving parts for me to give you an algorithm. But our intention is to get the comp ratio down while building a great business. And that is, -- I just don't want to get caught into some algorithm that doesn't match the opportunity or the volatility inherent in the market.

然後它迅速反彈，就像我說的，我將繼續為接下來的 12 個月的強勁表現而努力，這才是我真正想做的事情。我認為它太不穩定了，而且有太多變動的部分，我無法給你一個演算法。但我們的目的是在打造偉大企業的同時降低同店銷售額比率。那就是——我只是不想陷入一些與市場固有的機會或波動性不匹配的演算法。

Mike Brown, Wells Fargo Securities.

富國證券的麥克布朗。

Hai. Great. Thanks. Good afternoon. Ken, I just wanted to dive into 2Q here. We're just a few weeks into the quarter. Certainly a much more volatile environment. Can you maybe just give us a little bit of views into the quarter relative to 1Q? It's not easy from really anyone's perspective, but maybe you can shine a light on to how to think about the revenue potential just based on either what you can see in terms of the deals that are set to close and which ones you maybe have some greater confidence in, the contribution of non-M&A. Just some color relative to Q2 would be helpful as we think about the near-term. Thank you.

嗨。偉大的。謝謝。午安.肯，我只是想在這裡深入探討 2Q。本季才剛過幾週。毫無疑問，環境會變得更加動盪。您能否向我們介紹本季相對於第一季的情況？從任何人的角度來看這都不容易，但也許您可以闡明如何考慮收入潛力，僅僅基於您所看到的即將完成的交易以及您可能更有信心的交易，即非併購的貢獻。當我們考慮近期情況時，一些與第二季相關的資訊將會很有幫助。謝謝。

So things -- we're getting pushed out. Some things are getting delayed that we thought would be in Q2, and we don't think. And then there are some that are dying. Like I said, our pipeline is down, not dramatically, but it's down from March 31. Interestingly, there are some things that were announced and are in the process of closing. So it's not like there's a shutdown on the quarter.

所以事情——我們被趕出去了。有些事情被推遲了，我們以為會在第二季發生，但我們認為不會。還有一些正在死去。就像我說的，我們的管道正在下降，雖然不是大幅下降，但從 3 月 31 日開始就下降了。有趣的是，有些事情已經宣布，但目前正處於結束階段。所以這並不意味著本季就停擺了。

But the quarter we're having trouble getting our hands a lot exactly when things we thought were going to get pushed in the market are going to go to market. It's difficult for us to know that as well. So I would just say it's -- things are being pushed out. It's not -- I don't look at it as, -- it's not horrible. It's not as bad as the volatility of the market, which would imply in terms of just how difficult it is for people to understand what's going on.

但在本季度，我們遇到了許多困難，無法準確掌握我們認為將在市場上推出的產品的上市時間。我們也很難知道這一點。所以我只想說——事情正在被推遲。我不認為這有什麼可怕的。它並不像市場波動那麼糟糕，市場波動意味著人們很難理解正在發生的事情。

Because again, things that were announced during the first quarter, we'll close in the second. But there's many things getting pushed out. So I'm going to leave it at that, which is I don't think it's disastrous, but it's not as good as I was hoping it was going to be.

因為，第一季宣布的事情，我們將在第二季完成。但有很多事情被推遲了。所以我就不多說了，我不認為這是災難性的，但也沒有我所希望的那麼好。

Okay. Yes, that's fair. Wanted to maybe follow up on the talent question. So with this M&A upswing being pushed out, perhaps this tariff related turmoil is quick. But if it's not, and the eventual recovery is kind of slower with more fits and starts and maybe just a bit weaker overall or more spread out. What I'm interested to hear about is how do you think about protecting the margins, investing in the talent, building out the private capital business?

好的。是的，這很公平。也許想跟進一下人才問題。因此，隨著併購熱潮的推進，與關稅相關的動盪或許很快就會到來。但如果不是，最終的復甦就會比較慢，會斷斷續續，而且整體復甦可能會比較弱或比較分散。我感興趣的是，您如何看待保護利潤、投資人才、拓展私人資本業務？

What do you do in terms of retaining talent? Do you take a closer look at the mix of talent that you currently have and what the opportunities are? And do you kind of reassess or maybe do some rightsizing? Just maybe talk through that a little bit for us. Thank you.

在留住人才方面您做了什麼？您是否仔細審視過您目前擁有的人才組合以及有哪些機會？您是否會重新評估或進行一些調整？也許可以為我們稍微討論一下這個問題。謝謝。

We would look at all the above, which we do look at every year. We do believe that the private capital, -- by the way, I think we're transitioning the name. So it's private funds advisory. We're thinking of transitioning the names. These names get confusing, but it is the group that does the secondaries. And I think that's an important part of the world, by the way. So we're not going to slow down.

我們會審查上述所有內容，我們每年都會審查這些內容。我們確實相信私人資本——順便說一句，我認為我們正在轉變名稱。所以它是私募基金諮詢。我們正在考慮改變名稱。這些名稱可能會讓人感到困惑，但這是負責二級事務的小組。順便說一句，我認為這是世界的重要組成部分。所以我們不會放慢腳步。

We think that is key. And maybe even at the M&A environment in the IPO market gets more difficult, like you said, if you think they're going to be in a difficult mode, you want to have that asset, that expertise in go to market. So that's very important. And then we're going to fight to keep all our good talent.

我們認為這是關鍵。也許甚至在 IPO 市場的併購環境中也會變得更加困難，就像你說的，如果你認為他們將處於困難模式，你會希望擁有那種資產，那種進入市場的專業知識。所以這非常重要。然後我們將努力保留所有優秀人才。

We think in the last couple of years, what we did in technology and energy and then our existing people in -- and by the way, in industrials, we hired some great people, our media, our health care franchises. We're extremely happy with where the fourth quarter came in, where the first quarter was trending to, up 40%. What are we up? 41%, I think, was the number.

我們想想過去幾年我們在技術和能源領域所做的工作，以及我們現有的人才——順便說一下，在工業領域，我們聘請了一些優秀的人才，我們的媒體，我們的醫療保健特許經營權。我們對第四季的業績感到非常滿意，第一季的業績呈現上漲 40% 的趨勢。我們在做什麼？我認為這個數字是 41%。

Those are not bad numbers. If policy event didn't happen on April 2. And you can't put it on the sidelines and come back and just say, everybody come back. We sent you out for a vacation. We put together an extraordinary go-to-market team, and we're going to protect it unless we see something that is so awful that we think it extends out over a period of time.

這些數字還不錯。如果4月2日沒有發生政策事件。你不能把它放在場邊，然後回來只是說，大家都回來吧。我們送你出去度假。我們組建了一支出色的行銷團隊，我們將保護它，除非我們發現一些非常糟糕的事情，以至於我們認為它會在一段時間內延續下去。

And I can't imagine that a policy decision over tariffs is that idle. This is not a world war, maybe a world tariff war, but it's not a -- I believe it is a policy issue that's going on and not a fundamental degradation of business and especially the transaction business.

我無法想像有關關稅的政策決定會如此無意義。這不是一場世界大戰，也許是一場世界關稅戰，但這不是——我相信這是一個正在發生的政策問題，而不是商業、特別是交易業務的根本衰退。

Okay, great. Thanks for taking my questions, Ken.

好的，太好了。謝謝你回答我的問題，肯。

(Operator Instructions) Ryan Kenny, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示） 瑞安肯尼，摩根士丹利。

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I want to follow up on the comp ratio discussion earlier. Understand that you're not giving us a formula this year, which makes a lot of sense given the uncertainty. But can you just clarify, was the 69% in the first quarter based on your revenue assumption for the full year as of March 31? Or is that your current expectation? If this environment persists, is it fair to assume that could go up for the rest of the year?

嘿，下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。我想跟進一下之前的補償比率討論。請理解，今年您不會給我們一個公式，考慮到不確定性，這很有意義。但您能否澄清一下，第一季的 69% 是基於您對截至 3 月 31 日的全年收入的假設嗎？還是這是您當前的期望？如果這種環境持續下去，是否可以合理地預期今年剩餘時間內油價還會上漲？

Yes. So I'll have Chris answer. But my understanding is the requirement is you take your best efforts, guess and that's what that on revenue and estimate for the year. So Chris?

是的。所以我會讓克里斯回答。但我的理解是，要求你盡最大努力，猜測這就是當年的收入和估計。那麼克里斯？

Yes. I mean 69% for the quarter. It's our best estimate for the second quarter and the full year at this time. As Ken said, it's dependent on the trajectory of revenues and the hiring as we make investments in strategic areas like private funds advisory. But yes, it's our best estimate currently at this time.

是的。我的意思是本季為 69%。這是我們目前對第二季和全年的最佳估計。正如肯所說，這取決於收入的走勢和招聘情況，因為我們在私募基金諮詢等策略領域進行了投資。但確實，這是我們目前最好的估計。

So it's your best estimate after the tariff announcement, not as of March 31.

因此，這是關稅公告發布後的最佳估計，而不是截至 3 月 31 日的估計。

Yes.

是的。

Yes. It's our best estimate given everything we know, and it includes even a pretty good hiring. We want to hire into private funds advisory. We know that so we included that in there. And things may change, but that's our best estimate given all the elements that we know and hope to succeed on and the liberation day event.

是的。這是我們根據所了解的情況做出的最佳估計，其中甚至包括相當不錯的招募。我們想聘請私募基金顧問。我們知道這一點，所以我們將其包括在內。事情可能會發生變化，但這是我們根據已知和希望成功的所有因素以及解放日活動做出的最佳估計。

All right, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Ben Rubin, UBS.

瑞銀的本·魯賓。

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. Last week, you announced another senior hire for your tech franchise over in London. So I'm just curious, what are you seeing from the tech team that you lifted out in 2023? Have they been performing better or worse than your original expectations? And maybe how does their productivity compare to your broader M&A business at large? Thanks.

你好。感謝您回答我的問題。上週，您宣佈為倫敦的科技特許經營店招募另一位高級職員。所以我很好奇，你對 2023 年解聘的技術團隊有何看法？他們的表現比你最初的預期好還是差？他們的生產力與您更廣泛的併購業務相比如何？謝謝。

Thank you for that question. The tech team has been a stunning success. Now I don't want to tell Jason that it's better than I expected because then he'll think I thought he wasn't a good guy. I thought we hired a great team, and it's been a great team. And I wish we didn't have the April 2nd event because I think it would have shown how successful an operation that was.

謝謝你的提問。該技術團隊取得了驚人的成功。現在我不想告訴傑森這比我預期的要好，因為那樣他就會認為我認為他不是一個好人。我認為我們聘請了一支優秀的團隊，而且它也確實是一支優秀的團隊。我希望我們沒有舉辦 4 月 2 日的活動，因為我認為它會顯示出那次行動有多成功。

And by the way, the same with the energy. I think people -- we quietly have hired a significant energy team that has an incredible backlog and is making real gains there as well. But the technology has been just a phenomenal addition. And what it's done is, again, in the sponsor world, we want to be important to sponsors. We want them to think, okay, is Moelis showing us their best and we've given them enough?

順便說一句，能源也是一樣的。我認為人們——我們悄悄地聘請了一支重要的能源團隊，該團隊擁有大量積壓工作，並且也正在取得真正的進展。但這項技術只是一個非凡的補充。再次強調，在贊助商領域，我們希望成為贊助商眼中的重要人物。我們希望他們思考，好吧，Moelis 是否向我們展示了他們最好的一面，而我們已經給予他們足夠的力量了？

It's kind of a bilateral trade, right, I'll bring the trade agreement into this, with sponsors and advisers. Like are we showing you too much good? I should get Trump in here to negotiate for me. But are we showing you too many good ideas and you're not giving us back enough? And that kind of goes on, it's trade. And what the tech team does has added like 6,000 or 7,000 calls, idea calls where we're in the -- over and above everything we were doing.

這是一種雙邊貿易，對，我會將貿易協定、贊助商和顧問納入其中。我們是否向你展示了太多好東西？我應該讓川普來這裡為我談判。但是，我們向你們展示了太多好的想法，而你們卻沒有給我們足夠的回報嗎？這種情況一直持續下去，這就是貿易。技術團隊所做的工作增加了 6,000 或 7,000 通電話，這些電話都是我們正在進行的想法電話——超出了我們所做的一切。

So if we were important in the halls of sponsors, prior to that, not only are they producing significant revenue backlog, but they're also improving everybody else's impact at the sponsor level. So it's been phenomenal. So energy is doing the same thing. So it's been, if I had to admit it, it's been even better than we thought when we did it.

因此，如果我們在此之前在贊助商殿堂中佔有重要地位，那麼他們不僅會產生大量的收入積壓，而且還會在贊助商層面提高其他人的影響力。這真是太驚人了。能量也在做同樣的事情。所以，如果我必須承認的話，事情比我們想像的還要好。

That's great to hear. I'm not going to ask explicitly about the comp ratio but is there any chance you could share the dollar impact to comp expense in the first quarter from the accelerated vesting of retirement-eligible bankers?

聽到這個消息真是太好了。我不會明確詢問薪酬比率，但您是否可以分享一下符合退休資格的銀行家加速歸屬對第一季薪酬費用產生的美元影響？

Maybe, Chris?

也許吧，克里斯？

Yes. I mean I think you're going to see that in the 10-Q. So the Q1 always has a higher fixed comp ratio due to the retirement-eligible equity hitting all in Q1. I would say it's about double the expense than a normal quarter. And so we also accrue an incentive comp, right? It just means that there's a higher proportion of fixed comp versus variable comp in the first quarter. And we balance it out over the year.

是的。我的意思是，我認為你會在 10-Q 中看到這一點。因此，由於退休合格股權在第一季全部到賬，因此第一季的固定薪資率始終較高。我想說，這大約是正常季度支出的兩倍。因此我們也獲得了獎勵補償，對嗎？這只是意味著第一季固定薪酬與浮動薪酬的比例更高。我們會在一年內達到平衡。

Great. Thanks, Chris.

偉大的。謝謝，克里斯。

And there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Ken, for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話轉回給肯，請他做最後發言。

Thank you. A pleasure to be with you. It was the first time I think we were first to go. And I think with the everyday you want to be later and later, maybe there'll be a resolution before some other people tell you what's going on in the world in the whole tariff war. But look forward to seeing you, and hopefully, we'll have this all behind us and talking about some brighter future. Thanks.

謝謝。很高興和你在一起。我認為這是我們第一次第一個離開。我認為，隨著你一天天越來越晚地等待，也許在其他人告訴你整個關稅戰爭中世界上正在發生的事情之前，就會有一個解決方案。但我期待著見到你，希望我們能把這一切拋在腦後，談論更美好的未來。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。