Moelis & Co (MC) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone and welcome to the Moelis & Company earnings conference call for the fourth quarter of 2024. To begin, I'll turn the call over to Mr Matt Suv. Please go ahead, sir.

大家下午好，歡迎參加 Moelis & Company 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。先生，請繼續。

Good afternoon and thank you for joining us for Moelis & Company fourth's quarter and full year 2024 financial results conference call. On the phone today are Ken Moelis, Chairman, CEO; and Joe Simon, Chief Financial Officer.

下午好，感謝您參加 Moelis & Company 第四季和 2024 年全年財務業績電話會議。今天打電話的是董事長兼執行長 Ken Moelis；以及首席財務官喬·西蒙（Joe Simon）。

Before we begin, I would like to note that the remarks made on this call may contain certain forward-looking statements which are subject to various risks and uncertainties, including those identified from time to time in the Risk Factors section of moles and company' filings with the SEC.

在我們開始之前，我想指出的是，本次電話會議中的言論可能包含某些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受各種風險和不確定性的影響，包括公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中「風險因素」部分不時確定的風險和不確定性。

Actual results could differ materially from those currently anticipated. The firm undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Our comments today include references to certain adjusted financial measures. We believe these measures when presented together with comparable GAAP measures are useful to investors to compare our results across several periods and to better understand and our operating results. The reconciliation of these adjusted financial measures with the relevant GAAP financial information and other information required by Reg G is provided in the firm's earnings release, which can be found on our investor relations website at investors dot mills dotcom.

實際結果可能與目前預期的結果有重大差異。該公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。我們今天的評論提到了某些調整後的財務指標。我們相信，這些指標與可比較的 GAAP 指標一起呈現，有助於投資者比較我們不同時期的業績，並更好地理解我們的經營業績。這些調整後的財務指標與相關 GAAP 財務資訊及 Reg G 要求的其他資訊的對帳表已在公司的收益報告中提供，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站 investors dot mills dotcom 上找到該報告。

I'll now turn the call of the Joe to discuss our results.

我現在將轉接喬的電話來討論我們的結果。

Thanks Matt. Good afternoon, everyone on today's call, I'll go through our financial results and then Ken will comment further on the business. We reported $439 million of revenues in the fourth quarter, an increase of 104% versus the prior year period for the full year. Our adjusted revenues increased 40% to $1.2 billion.

謝謝馬特。大家下午好，在今天的電話會議上，我將介紹我們的財務結果，然後肯將對業務進一步發表評論。我們報告第四季的營收為 4.39 億美元，比去年全年成長 104%。我們的調整後營收成長了 40%，達到 12 億美元。

Our revenue growth was powered by year over year increases across all products regarding expenses, our adjusted compensation expense ratio was 58.4% for the fourth quarter and 69% for the full year. Our non-comp expense ratio was 11.4% for the fourth quarter and 15.9% for the full year. Non-compensation expenses of $50 million in the fourth quarter include approximately $2 million of transaction related expenses.

我們的營收成長得益於所有產品費用的年成長，我們第四季的調整後薪資費用率為 58.4%，全年的調整後薪資費用率為 69%。我們第四季的非經營性費用率為 11.4%，全年非經營性費用率為 15.9%。第四季 5,000 萬美元的非薪資費用包括約 200 萬美元的交易相關費用。

In 2025, we anticipate non-compensation expenses to trend higher as a result of an expected increase in technology occupancy and T&E spent. We achieved a pretax margin of 31.4% for the fourth quarter and 16.4% for the full year. Regarding taxes, our normalized corporate tax rate for the year was 30.1% and our effective tax rate was 23.5%. The difference in rates is primarily driven by the excess tax benefit related to the delivery of equity based compensation in the first quarter of 2024.

到 2025 年，我們預計非薪酬費用將呈上升趨勢，原因是技術佔用率和差旅與費用支出預計將增加。我們第四季的稅前利潤率為 31.4%，全年的稅前利潤率為 16.4%。至於稅收，我們今年的標準化企業稅率為 30.1%，有效稅率為 23.5%。利率差異主要源自於 2024 年第一季提供股權薪酬相關的超額稅收優惠。

Consistent with prior years, the annual vesting of RSUs will occur later this month for purposes of quantifying the excess tax benefit in quarter one, we expect the impact to EPS to be approximately $0.01 for each $1.25 difference between the vesting price and adjusted grant price of $41 a share. So it is as an example, if market price at time of vest were $76 the estimated impact on EPS would be $0.28. Regarding capital allocation, the board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.65 per share an 8% increase from the prior quarter. And lastly, we continue to maintain a strong balance sheet with $560 million of cash and no debt.

與往年一致，RSU 的年度歸屬將在本月稍後進行，以量化第一季度的超額稅收優惠，我們預計歸屬價格和調整後授予價格每股 41 美元之間每 1.25 美元的差額將對每股收益產生約 0.01 美元的影響。舉個例子，如果歸屬時的市場價格為 76 美元，則預期對每股盈餘的影響為 0.28 美元。關於資本配置，董事會宣布定期季度股息為每股 0.65 美元，較上一季增加 8%。最後，我們繼續保持強勁的資產負債表，擁有 5.6 億美元現金且沒有債務。

I'll now turn the call over to Ken.

我現在將電話轉給肯。

Thanks Joe and good afternoon everyone. We're pleased with our strong year over year performance in 2024 across all products and sectors, all driven by the collaboration commitment and dedication of our global team and their relentless focus on executing for our clients.

謝謝喬，大家下午好。我們對 2024 年所有產品和部門的強勁同比業績感到滿意，這一切都歸功於我們全球團隊的合作承諾和奉獻精神以及他們對為客戶執行的不懈關注。

During the M&A slowdown, we made significant investments in key sectors and products while remaining deeply committed to developing internal talent highlighted by the promotion of 12 new managing directors earlier this year. The performance resulting from the large investments we made in technology, industrials, and energy in 2023 have exceeded our expectations in 2024.

在併購放緩期間，我們對關鍵產業和產品進行了大量投資，同時仍致力於培養內部人才，今年稍早提拔了 12 位新董事總經理。 2023年我們在科技、工業和能源領域的大規模投資所帶來的業績已經超出了我們對2024年的預期。

In fact, technology was the largest sector contributor to our 2024 revenues. The industrials and energy sectors have also been quite active and the capital markets group had a strong year and continues to be a strategic weapon as deal making accelerates and private capital providers play an increasing role in the transaction financing markets.

事實上，科技是我們 2024 年收入的最大貢獻者。工業和能源產業也相當活躍，資本市場集團今年表現強勁，隨著交易加速以及私人資本提供者在交易融資市場中發揮越來越大的作用，資本市場集團繼續成為一種戰略武器。

Looking ahead, I'm optimistic for 2025 the M&A market is poised to benefit from the new administration's pro growth strategy. And at the same time, we're seeing early evidence of a pickup in sponsor activity in capital structure advisory, elevated rates and our enhanced credit or coverage capabilities provide a constructive environment for our restructuring business.

展望未來，我對 2025 年的併購市場充滿信心，因為該市場將受益於新政府的親增長策略。同時，我們看到早期證據表明，資本結構諮詢領域的發起人活動有所回升，利率上升以及我們信用或覆蓋能力的增強為我們的重組業務提供了建設性的環境。

And earlier this week, we announced the hire of a market leading banker who will join the firm as global head of private funds advisory. This appointment underscores our commitment to expanding our capabilities in providing private capital solutions to sponsors and limited partners globally. We've never been better positioned to deliver innovative solutions for our clients and results for our shareholders. And I've never been more energized about the future of the firm with that. I'll open it up for questions.

本週早些時候，我們宣布聘請一位市場領先的銀行家，他將加入公司擔任私募基金諮詢全球主管。此項任命凸顯了我們致力於擴大向全球贊助商和有限合夥人提供私募資本解決方案的能力。我們從未像現在這樣有能力為客戶提供創新解決方案並為股東帶來豐厚回報。我從未對公司的未來感到如此興奮。我將開放給大家提問。

Devin Ryan, Citizens JMP.

德文·瑞安（Devin Ryan），公民 JMP。

Really nice end of the year here for you guys. And I just wanted to dig in a little bit on what you're seeing in the environment. Obviously, you saying backlogs have been at records? And then, we see this really strong quarter here. I know turnover has been a bit slow. But I'm just curious if we should think about this quarter as maybe there being a catalyst where there's been a change in that conversion ratio or timing or is it just more seasonality from this quarter? And then just more broadly how we should think about that conversion ratio or timing of deals moving through the backlog as we look into 2025? Thanks.

對你們來說這真是美好的一年的結束。我只是想深入了解您在環境中看到的情況。顯然，您說積壓量已經達到紀錄了？然後，我們看到這個季度非常強勁。我知道營業額有點慢。但我只是好奇，我們是否應該認為本季可能存在一個催化劑，即轉化率或時間發生了變化，或者只是本季度的季節性變化？那麼更廣泛地說，當我們展望 2025 年時，我們應該如何看待交易的轉換率或交易完成積壓的時間？謝謝。

Well, it felt to me like that just the pace of deals closing. There's always some seasonality in the fourth as opposed to some of the other quarters, but this one felt like something happened and it might have been the election, but something happened and conversion did pick up. What's interesting is like we always talked about you have this book to bill with your pipeline. So you can look at the fourth quarter and say, you emptied the pipeline of a significant amount of revenue. But our pipeline is at the highest levels ever it's increasing.

嗯，我感覺這就是交易完成的速度。與其他季度相比，第四季度總是會有一些季節性，但這個季度感覺好像發生了一些事情，可能是因為選舉，但確實發生了一些事情，轉換率確實上升了。有趣的是，就像我們總是談論的那樣，您有這本書要與您的管道一起計費。因此，你可以看看第四季度，並說你損失了大量收入。但我們的管道處於有史以來的最高水平，而且還在增加。

So we're building backlog faster than even, than, than it is converting. But I think the problem was Devin, it was just, it was really in that period of the fed uncertainty and maybe even some of the regulatory uncertainty, it was just everything just took a long time. There was some accordion effect that started at 2022 I guess when rates started to move where everything just took longer to get through your pipe from start to finish, it feels different. Now, it's not quite as quick to completion as 2021 but it's much clearer and more rapid to go from deal start to deal end. It feels.

因此，我們建立積壓業務的速度甚至比轉換速度還快。但我認為問題在於德文，那隻是，那確實處於聯準會不確定性的時期，甚至可能存在一些監管不確定性，一切都花了很長時間。我想，從 2022 年開始出現了一些手風琴效應，當利率開始變動時，所有事情從頭到尾都需要更長的時間才能通過你的管道，感覺會有所不同。現在，完成速度不如 2021 年那麼快，但從交易開始到交易結束更加清晰、更快捷。有感覺。

Got it. Okay. That's great color Ken. Thank you. And then a follow up for Joe, I heard you mention I think some inflationary noncomp expense items as we look ahead. So I'm just curious if we can maybe flesh those out a little bit. You know, is there any degree of of how significant those will be or how to think about non comp growth into 2025? Because obviously you have that on one end. But then my senses, there's also probably less SVB contract -- contracted expenses if I'm correct. So I just wanted to think about some of the puts and takes as we are modeling out non comp expenses for '25. Thanks.

知道了。好的。肯，顏色真棒。謝謝。然後是喬的後續問題，我聽到您提到，我認為展望未來，會出現一些通貨膨脹的非薪酬費用項目。所以我只是好奇我們是否可以稍微充實一下這些內容。您知道，這些因素的重要性如何，或如何看待 2025 年的非同尋常成長？因為很明顯你一端有這個。但根據我的感覺，如果我沒錯的話，SVB 的合約費用可能也會減少。因此，我只是想在我們為'25 年非薪酬支出建模時考慮一些得失。謝謝。

Yeah, sure. So there, there to be perfectly clear, there are no more SVB related transaction expenses, but I'd say the underlying run rate in '25 is going to increase over '24 and it's primarily driven by continued ads to headcount. I think, if I took out transaction expenses projecting into '25 I'm thinking probably around 15% we're adding and building out space in the UK. We're having tremendous success with client events and so we expect to expand on that and then always technology and information services, particularly as headcount grows, that expense by definition will grow as well.

是的，當然。因此，非常清楚的是，不再有與 SVB 相關的交易費用，但我想說 25 年的基本運行率將比 24 年增加，這主要是受持續的廣告與員工人數增長的推動。我想，如果我去掉預計到25年的交易費用，我想大概有15%左右我們會在英國增加和建造空間。我們在客戶活動方面取得了巨大的成功，因此我們希望在此基礎上進一步擴大技術和資訊服務，特別是隨著員工人數的增加，這些費用也將隨之增加。

James Yaro, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的詹姆斯·亞羅 (James Yaro)。

Just want to turn to restructuring quickly, obviously very strong for you and for the industry in 2024. As you think about the outlook for 2025 what's the ability to hold this level of activity? Is there any potential that we could see a further acceleration from here and then any ability for you to just give a rough split of how much revenue in the quarter was from M&A versus restructuring versus capital markets? Thanks.

只是想快速轉向重組，這對您和 2024 年的行業來說顯然非常強勁。我們是否有可能從現在開始看到進一步的加速，然後您能否粗略地劃分本季來自併購、重組和資本市場的收入？謝謝。

Look, it's always hard to project. This restructuring is based on the economy, interest rates. I look we did have a very good year, the economy feels strong enough that you know, as of now, I don't see an event that would cause a major disruption. Of course, I have to also say that things are pretty volatile in and around the things like the government and, and things like that. So anything could happen. I would expect 2025 to be a year that looked a lot like 2024 as of now as of now. And that's without any external events in the restructuring world. I think on the -- to your answer about 60% of our revenue was M&A that doesn't mean it was all restructuring. The rest is capital markets, really capital markets and restructuring and those numbers, by the way are for the full year.

瞧，預測總是很困難的。這次重組是基於經濟、利率的。我認為我們確實度過了非常好的一年，經濟感覺足夠強勁，你知道，截至目前，我還沒有看到會造成重大破壞的事件。當然，我還必須說，政府內部和周圍的局勢非常不穩定，等等。所以任何事情都有可能發生。我預計 2025 年將與 2024 年非常相似。而這還不是重組領域發生任何外部事件的情況。我認為——關於您的回答，我們 60% 的收入來自併購，但這並不意味著全部都是重組。其餘的是資本市場，實際上是資本市場和重組，順便說一下，這些數字是全年的。

Maybe just quickly on the comp ratio. I think you were well within the range of the sensitivity that you gave for the comp ratio for 2024 maybe if you could just provide any context on the comp ratio progression to 2025 and whether that sensitivity is still something we should be thinking about.

也許只是快速了解一下補償比率。我認為您給出的 2024 年同店銷售額比率的敏感度範圍完全在允許範圍內，如果您能提供到 2025 年同店銷售額比率變化的任何背景信息，以及這種敏感度是否仍然是我們應該考慮的問題。

So I think it gets it's more complicated look, we gave a pretty good algorithm and stuck to it for the year as you get closer to market based, low 60s comp it's going to start flattening out. It's not a linear progression. I think we do have leverage if everything stayed the same, I think we probably get 75% of those savings if, and that's, if we didn't do anything exciting for the year, but I will say we, 75% of the savings for $100 million is what we gave you.

所以我認為它看起來更加複雜，我們給出了一個非常好的演算法，並堅持了一年，當你更接近基於市場的水平時，低 60 年代的比較它將開始趨於平穩。這不是一個線性進展。我認為，如果一切保持不變，我們確實有槓桿作用，我認為我們可能會獲得 75％的節省，那是如果我們今年沒有做任何令人興奮的事情的話，但我會說，我們給了你 1 億美元節省的 75％。

And again, I just want to reiterate as you get down near the low 60s, it just becomes competitive with the market and what what everybody else is doing. That's a we're not planning on linearly going through that in any capacity, but then you have other things like this private funds, advisory hire. We made, we do intend to build a market leading business around that. How big and how fast we do that will affect that. But we do intend to, we think we have a market leading banker to put us in position. We think it's an important project for us and we'll be aggressive.

我再說一遍，我想重申，當價格降到 60 多美元時，它就會與市場以及其他所有人所做的事競爭。我們不打算以任何方式線性地經歷這個過程，但還有其他事情，例如私募基金、顧問聘用。我們確實打算圍繞這一點打造一個市場領先的企業。我們這樣做的規模和速度都會對此產生影響。但我們確實打算這樣做，我們認為我們有一個市場領先的銀行家來幫助我們。我們認為這對我們來說是一個重要的項目，我們會積極推進。

Brennan Hawken, UBS.

瑞銀的布倫南‧霍肯 (Brennan Hawken)。

Curious on capital, Ken. So saw the dividend increase clear sign of confidence from you and I know that you have a and expressed fondness for dividends and being in the dividend growing club and whatnot, but with fully diluted shares on an average basis from 4Q '23 to 4Q '24. It increasing by 12%. What -- what are your thoughts on allocating some of your excess capital or capital generation to buy back to neutralize the employee comp?

肯，對資本很好奇。因此，看到股息增加，您顯然很有信心，而且我知道您對股息有濃厚的興趣，並且加入股息增長俱樂部等等，但從 2023 年第四季度到 2024 年第四季度，平均而言，股票完全稀釋了。增加了12%。您對分配部分過剩資本或資本產生來回購以抵銷員工補償有何想法？

Can I just correct one thing that you said Brennan. You're looking at an accounting result with respect to share count. And as you may remember when you run losses, which is what we did in '23 you only have basic count. And the fully diluted count is what you're looking at the end of '24. So you basically are looking at apples and oranges. It did not grow by 12% but I'll let Ken answer the question now.

我能糾正布倫南你說的一件事嗎？您正在查看與股份數量有關的會計結果。您可能還記得，當您出現虧損時，也就是我們在 23 年所做的那樣，您只有基本計數。完全稀釋的數量就是你在 24 年底看到的。因此你基本上是在看蘋果和橘子。它並沒有成長 12%，但現在我讓肯來回答這個問題。

The gist of the question, which is, look, we're 12 months away from I think on this earnings hall being asked if our dividend was safe and today we're being asked what we're going to do with our excess capital. So we increased the dividend because it very timely and quickly gives away what we think will be excess cash generation and we're confident in that. So we raised the dividend and from there, we will return the capital. It may be a series of things, right? It might be stock repurchases. We're not against that.

問題的要點是，看，我認為，距離我們在這個收益大廳被問及我們的股息是否安全還有 12 個月的時間，而今天我們被問及我們將如何處理我們的過剩資本。因此，我們增加了股息，因為它可以及時且迅速地發放我們認為的過剩現金，我們對此充滿信心。因此，我們提高了股息，然後我們將返還資本。這可能是一系列的事情，對吧？這可能是股票回購。我們並不反對這一點。

We repurchased a large amount of stock a few years ago. So we're not against that. It's going to be determined by us, the Board, the market, how we want to get the capital back to you a series of things. But, again, this is, it's a good, it's a good conversation and I'll be discussing what we're going to do with our substantial excess capital versus can we make our dividends? So, we'll address that and believe me, we will not keep any of the capital, it will be returned in the best way we can think of and as quickly as possible.

幾年前我們回購了大量股票。所以我們並不反對。這一切都將由我們、董事會、市場來決定，以及我們如何將資本回饋給你等一系列事情。但是，這又是一次很好的對話，我將討論如何處理我們大量的過剩資本以及我們能否獲得股息？所以，我們會解決這個問題，相信我，我們不會扣留任何資本，我們會以我們能想到的最好的方式盡快歸還。

And I get the irony, can there's no doubt. And Joe, thanks for pointing that out. If we just convert to 1Q, then it's 8%. And that's over, a year and a half, nearly two years. So it's a, it's a more modest amount of pollution for sure. So appreciate all that when you're thinking about the productivity levels, right? So you guys did really, there's no other way to describe it. I mean, you really did quite a great job here in 2024 very strong finish to the year. You got to like, nearly $8 million of advisory revenue per trailing MD.

我明白其中的諷刺意味，毫無疑問。喬，謝謝你指出這一點。如果我們轉換為 1Q，那麼它就是 8%。一年半，差不多兩年的時間就過去了。所以，這肯定是一種較為溫和的污染量。所以，當您考慮生產力水平時，您要重視這一切，對嗎？所以你們確實做到了，沒有其他方式可以描述它。我的意思是，你在 2024 年確實做得非常出色，為這一年畫上了非常圓滿的句點。每位現任 MD 的諮詢收入接近 800 萬美元。

So, really turned what we were all thinking was going to be a pretty bad year into quite a solid one. How given the quantum of banking talent and the caliber that you've added, you flagged the tech team's contribution here this year? And how should we be thinking about that metric and given the new team and the new capabilities, is 2021 really such a stretch from a productivity perspective. I know you guys did 12.5 in that year.

所以，我們原本以為會是相當糟糕的一年，現在卻變成了相當穩健的一年。考慮到銀行人才的數量和所增加的素質，您如何評估今年技術團隊的貢獻？我們應該如何考慮這個指標，考慮到新的團隊和新的能力，從生產力的角度來看，2021 年真的有這麼大的延伸嗎？我知道你們那一年做了 12.5。

Well, look, II don't know the full answer to that, but I will say the tech team, remember it's only 18 months into it. So I don't think we're at full run rate with the revenue per head on that team. This is again, it takes time to build up and we're seeing the benefits our industrials team we added in from credit suisse. So that's about a, that's also about a year in maybe a little, a little more. And we then made a big investment in energy and we're extremely happy with energy and energy. I think you're going to see ramp up and it's a big fee.

嗯，看，我不知道這個問題的完整答案，但我會說技術團隊，記住這才剛開始 18 個月。因此，我認為我們該團隊的人均收入還沒有達到最大運行率。這再次需要時間來建立，我們看到了從瑞士信貸招募的工業團隊帶來的好處。所以那大概是，大概還要一年多一點的時間。然後我們在能源方面進行了大量投資，我們對能源和能源感到非常滿意。我想你會看到費用的增加，而且費用很高。

And then lastly, I'm very excited, but we had to have some garden leave on the private funds advisory. You, it's a large business for many of our peers and it's been a very small business for us. So the head count, and that's the same, a lot of same calling effort to the, to the sponsors. We will add MDS there, but I think the revenue per MD there, Brendan, I don't really know the answer but my gut feel and my hope is that, yeah, that 2021 you probably had an S&P 500.

最後，我很高興，但我們必須在私募基金諮詢方面給予一些休假。對我們許多同行來說，這是一門大生意，而對我們來說，這卻是一項非常小的生意。因此，人數和贊助商的數量是一樣的，我們付出了很多相同的呼籲努力。我們將在那裡添加 MDS，但我認為那裡每個 MD 的收入，Brendan，我真的不知道答案，但我的直覺和我的希望是，是的，2021 年你可能會有標準普爾 500 指數。

I'm doing this out of memory. That was probably at the beginning or is up significantly, I'll just leave it. It's up significantly. The amount of private capital is up significantly, the opportunity to do business in a larger global economy, with larger with larger deals. By the way, we had no tech team in 2021 which was a glaring hole in our go to market, especially because 2021 was a pretty good tech year. So I'm look, I'm excited to find out, let's leave it that way. I'm excited to find out and I'm not limiting it to that. I've never limited it to that, but we'll find out.

我是根據記憶這樣做的。那可能是在開始的時候，或者已經大幅上升了，我就不提了。它大幅上升了。私人資本的數量大幅增加，在更大的全球經濟中開展業務的機會越來越多，交易也越來越大。順便說一句，我們在 2021 年沒有技術團隊，這是我們進入市場的一個明顯漏洞，尤其是因為 2021 年是一個相當不錯的技術年份。所以我看，我很高興發現，讓我們保持這種狀態吧。我很高興能夠發現這一點，但我並不局限於此。我從未將其限制於此，但我們會找到答案。

Brendan O'Brien, Wolfe Research.

奧布萊恩（Brendan O’Brien），沃爾夫研究公司（Wolfe Research）。

I guess to start just on the sponsor business, you said that you're starting to see signs of a pickup. There would be great to get a sense as to, how meaningful of an acceleration we could start to see. And on top of that, a lot of the restructuring activity has been focused among sponsor clients through LME activity. I was just wondering whether there's any connection between the elevated restructuring activity among sponsor backed companies and the subdued sponsor M&A backdrop.

我想先從贊助商業務開始，您說您開始看到回升的跡象。如果我們能夠開始看到這種加速有多麼有意義，那將會非常棒。除此之外，許多重組活動都透過倫敦金屬交易所的活動集中在發起人客戶之間。我只是想知道，贊助商支持的公司重組活動的增加與贊助商併購背景的低迷之間是否存在某種聯繫。

I think sponsors are definitely coming forward. I mean, again, is it, I don't know, on a scale of 1 to 10, I guess, a year ago I'd give it a two or a three. I think we're probably at a six, I'm, again, very rough estimate of mine. I don't think we're at full speed where again, I'd go to 2021 when, if, on a scale of 1 to 10 that was a 10, everybody, everybody was buying and selling at the same time and it was active, but I think we're at a six. But my feeling is people want to get, as opposed to a year ago where I think people are like, hey, we're not doing anything and we really don't expect to do anything. I think it's, we're doing things and we expect to do more and want to do more.

我認為贊助商肯定會挺身而出。我的意思是，我不知道，如果以 1 到 10 來打分，我想，一年前我會給它 2 分或 3 分。我認為我們可能達到 6 個，再次重申一下，這只是我的粗略估計。我認為我們還沒有全速發展，如果以 1 到 10 來衡量，那麼到 2021 年，每個人都同時買賣，而且很活躍，但我認為我們現在處於 6 分。但我的感覺是人們想要得到，而不是像一年前那樣，我認為人們會說，嘿，我們什麼都沒做，我們真的不指望做任何事情。我認為，我們正在做一些事情，我們期望做更多，也希望做更多。

So I think the desire and the bias is to be more aggressive on the creditor side. It's interesting. Probably our biggest opening is a lot of our restructurings were company side or debtor side. It's where we do a lot. I mean, it's probably 70-30. And we're being much more active now on the private credit side and trying to get in on that side of the restructurings is your point like these companies couldn't sell. So they're getting into trouble.

因此我認為，債權人方面的願望和傾向是更積極主動。這很有趣。我們最大的突破可能是許多重整都是公司方或債務人方的。這是我們做很多事情的地方。我的意思是，可能是 70-30。我們現在在私人信貸方面更加活躍，並試圖參與重組，這就是你的觀點，就像這些公司無法出售一樣。所以他們陷入麻煩了。

I don't think that's the answer, because it's hard to sell a company that can't cover its debt. So I don't think M&A truly covers restructuring. I think restructuring might be driven more by interest rates would just make the onerous debt obligations come in quicker than they would have three or four years ago. But I don't think it's the M&A that's driving and in fact, if anything, I think some of the private capital solutions that we're doing, very pick preferred structured rescue credit, that's probably staving off some of the restructuring more than M&A would.

我認為這不是答案，因為很難出售一家無法償還債務的公司。因此，我認為併購並不真正涵蓋重組。我認為重組可能更多地受到利率的驅動，這只會使繁重的債務義務比三、四年前更快到來。但我不認為併購是推動因素，事實上，如果有的話，我認為我們正在實施的一些私人資本解決方案，非常優先的結構化救助信貸，可能比併購更能避免一些重組。

That's, that's helpful context, I guess for my follow up, I just wanted to touch on the comp ratio. It was great to see the comp leverage come through this year. And, I think you alluded to this in your prior answer to a prior question, but when you provided the incremental guidance, you indicated that you thought you could get back to a low 60s comp ratio with about $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion of revenues. I just want to get a sense as to whether you think that's still the case today or as the continued investment in the business maybe push that number a bit higher.

這是一個很有幫助的背景訊息，我想，對於我的後續跟進，我只想談談補償比率。很高興看到今年公司槓桿率提升。而且，我認為您在先前對先前問題的回答中提到了這一點，但是當您提供增量指導時，您表示您認為您可以通過約 13 億美元至 14 億美元的收入將同店銷售額比率恢復到 60% 的低位。我只是想知道您是否認為今天情況仍然如此，或者隨著對該業務的持續投資可能將這個數字推高一點。

Yeah, I don't remember saying it exactly. You know, because even the algorithm we hit didn't really go to that number if you did it straight line. So I don't think that, I think I might have said something like by the fourth quarter we might be having a run rate of revenue. I might have said at one point that would justify getting back to low 60-60 in that range.

是的，我不記得具體說過這句話。你知道，因為即使我們達到的演算法，如果你直線執行，也不會真正達到那個數字。所以我不這麼認為，我想我可能會說類似到第四季我們可能會有一個收入運行率這樣的話。我可能曾經說過，這可以證明回到該範圍的 60-60 以下是合理的。

And I think that's where I, that that's where you get. So that would be a couple of 100 point. I think it's higher than the revenue number. You're talking about there is leverage by the way, all the way up, but it just gets more and more difficult as you get there.

我想這就是我、這就是你所得到的。因此這將是百分之幾。我認為它高於收入數字。你說的是，順便說一下，一路上都有槓桿作用，但越到那裡，難度就越高。

And we've been making, we continue to make substantial investments last year this year, we expect to. So yes, that will also have a -- that's a headwind to the operating leverage that.

我們去年就一直在進行大量投資，預計今年也將繼續進行。所以是的，這也會對經營槓桿產生不利影響。

You want to be clear on that. It's not like we didn't do anything this year in terms of investing, even bringing down the comp ratio, we did invest and so inherent in 2025 is some investment, the private funds advisory think could be a little larger and more aggressive than just regular way sector banker. It -- it'll depend how fast and how quick we get we can get moving on that. We have garden periods and lots of things like that, but we're going to, we're going to move as quickly as we possibly can to build that out.

你要清楚這一點。並不是說我們今年在投資方面什麼都沒做，即使降低了補償比率，我們也確實進行了投資，因此 2025 年必然會有一些投資，私募基金諮詢機構認為，其規模可能比常規方式的行業銀行家更大、更積極。這取決於我們能以多快的速度進行這項工作。我們有花園期和許多類似的東西，但我們會盡快將其建成。

Ryan Kenny, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的瑞安肯尼。

So you've been really strong at hiring and protecting your workforce in downturns and then taking share in market upturns. So as the market starts to recover is the recruiting environment getting more competitive. And does that slow the pace of leaning into hiring or do you expect to continue hiring at pace?

因此，你們在經濟低迷時期非常善於招募和保護員工，並在市場復甦時佔有一定份額。因此，隨著市場開始復甦，招募環境的競爭也變得更加激烈。這是否會減慢招聘的速度，還是您預計會繼續快速招聘？

I think the environment's not gotten, it's, it's competitive. It's about the same as it's been. I actually think the continuing what I call the continuing regulatory crunch on the major banks makes, makes people available. I actually think the onerous capital restrictions, I think there was a, I said it at the Goldman conference when I was there. I do believe that the entire transaction, financing economy is switching from being bank centric to being.

我認為環境並沒有好轉，競爭十分激烈。和以前差不多。我實際上認為，我所說的對主要銀行持續的監管緊縮使得人們變得可用。我實際上認為，繁重的資本限制是存在的，我在高盛會議上就說過這一點。我確實相信整個交易、融資經濟正在從以銀行為中心轉變為以...為中心。

I won't call it private credit centric but to be institutional centric, whether that be sovereign wealth funds insurance, private credit. I do think the regulators are intent on taking the risk out of the taxpayer guaranteed financing sector, which is commercial banks and I agree with them that should have been done long ago, but you can see it. I think there was a major bank that two weeks ago announced they were shutting down their entire investment bank.

我不會稱之為以私人信貸為中心，而是以機構為中心，無論是主權財富基金保險還是私人信貸。我確實認為監管機構有意消除納稅人擔保融資領域（即商業銀行）的風險，我同意他們早就應該這樣做了，但你也能看到這一點。我認為兩週前有一家大銀行宣布將關閉整個投資銀行。

And I think bankers are starting to see all you have to do is look at the market and realize that being independent and not having the conflicts and the problems of being a regulated financial institution, the lead the best. I think the best people in the world tend to want to come to an independent firm in which creativity and intellectual talent is highly recognized. So that continues to happen. And that's where a lot of the talent comes from.

我認為銀行家開始意識到，你所要做的就是觀察市場，並意識到保持獨立、沒有衝突和受監管的金融機構的問題，才能發揮最佳領導作用。我認為世界上最優秀的人才往往願意來到一家高度認可創造力和智力的獨立公司。這樣的事還會繼續發生。許多人才都是從這裡來的。

And then just to follow up on the quarter revenues were clearly really strong. Should we think about the build through 2025 as building off of 4Q annualized revenue numbers or should we look more at full year '24? Is there anything idiosyncratic in the quarter? Any big fee events or pull forwards that we should be thinking about as we model into 2025?

然後從季度追蹤來看，營收顯然非常強勁。我們是否應該將 2025 年的成長視為基於第四季度年度化收入數字的成長，還是應該更專注於 24 年全年的成長？本季有什麼特別之處嗎？在製定 2025 年模型時，我們應該考慮哪些重大費用事件或提前事件？

Interestingly, there was nothing really unusual about Q4. I think our pull forward, Joe was what.

有趣的是，第四季並沒有什麼不尋常的事情。我認為我們的前進之路，喬就是如此。

Eight, which was the same as third quarter.

八個，與第三季相同。

So very light, the pull forward wasn't there, there was no unusual fee if anything, we always have puts and takes deals, move and deals move in deals, move out. The most interesting part is the deals that moved out in the fourth quarter were mostly regulatory and so they almost, they, the moveouts are going to skip a quarter that we had some things move from, not from quarter four to quarter one, but from quarter four to quarter two because they were regulatory and I thought it was about normal of what went in versus what got delayed, other than what got delayed, didn't get delayed by weeks. It got delayed by a couple of months again. It's always been a bit of a seasonal business.

因此非常輕鬆，不存在提前拉動，也不存在任何不尋常的費用，我們總是有賣出和接受交易，移動交易，進出交易。最有趣的部分是，第四季度轉移的交易大多是監管方面的，因此它們幾乎，它們的轉移將跳過一個季度，有些交易不是從第四季度轉移到第一季度，而是從第四季度轉移到第二季度，因為它們是監管方面的，而且我認為，除了延遲的交易外，轉移的交易與延遲的交易相比，都是正常的，沒有延遲數週。它又被推遲了幾個月。這一直是個有點季節性的行業。

The amount of transaction. Animal spirits we saw arise in the fourth quarter. I think we're more important than the seasonality alone, but I don't want to discount. We always have a, first quarter is always the lightest in fourth quarter is always, not always, usually the best in the first quarter is usually the lightest.

交易金額。我們在第四季看到了動物精神的崛起。我認為我們比單純的季節性更重要，但我不想忽視。我們總是有一個，第一季總是最輕的，第四季度總是，並非總是，通常第一季通常是最輕的。

But I do think over the full course of the year, I feel like the trend is good. I just can't say that you should annualize one quarter, right?

但我確實認為，從全年來看，趨勢是好的。我只是不能說你應該將一個季度進行年度化，對嗎？

Ken Worthington, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的肯‧沃辛頓。

Big questions largely answered and asked and answered, Joe a little one for you. The comp ratio usually early in the year. The comp ratio is, is like a placeholder and then you chew up later in the year. How should we think about, the, placeholder as we start thinking about compensation for 2025?

大問題基本上都已經得到解答，而且有人問過、有人回答過，喬，給你一個小問題。補償比率通常在年初確定。補償比率就像一個佔位符，然後您會在今年稍後將其消耗掉。當我們開始考慮 2025 年的薪資時，我們該如何考慮佔位符？

Yeah, good question. I think, as you know, we always have a bump in the equity charge due to the incentive equity, which is granted later this month. And then the retirement eligible participants, are accelerated in the first quarter. And then what Ken was describing as typical seasonality in the first quarter, I would probably start with where we landed for the full year as a starting point placeholder and we'll go from there.

是的，好問題。我認為，如你所知，由於本月稍後授予的激勵股權，我們的股權費用總是會增加。然後，退休合格參與者的人數在第一季加速增加。然後，肯恩所描述的第一季的典型季節性，我可能會以我們全年的水平作為起點佔位符，然後我們從那裡開始。

(Operator Instructions) James Yaro, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）高盛的詹姆斯·亞羅 (James Yaro)。

I just want to clarify on your comment around the 25% comp ratio here. Just, just to confirm, are you saying that for you know, let's say $100 million increase in revenue that 75% of that would drop to the bottom line. So that'd be like a 25% margins. Is that the right? Is that what you --

我只是想澄清一下您關於 25% 補償比率的評論。只是想確認一下，您是否是說，假設收入增加 1 億美元，其中 75% 就會落入利潤中。所以利潤率大概是 25%。那是正確的嗎？這就是你——

Joe is looking at me because he said stay away from extending out the algorithm we want, and of course, I stepped in it. I was just saying that, it it's not straight line. I was going to say it's asymptotic. What happens as you go to 61. But Joe told me no one will know what that means. So I'll try it and see if anybody writes that and gets it, but it's just going to slow that, we were doing 400 basis points. I think we gave you at the beginning of last year per 100. It's, it can't go that fast. It's not straight line. There is a room to improve. So I was saying, would we get, would we get 300 basis points if we did nothing else? Maybe that would be right.

喬看著我，因為他說不要擴展我們想要的演算法，當然，我介入了。我剛才說了，它不是直線。我本來想說它是漸近的。當你到達 61 時會發生什麼。所以我會嘗試一下，看看是否有人寫了並且得到了它，但這只會減慢速度，我們之前做的是 400 個基點。我想我們在去年年初就給了你每 100 個。這不是直線。還有改進的空間。所以我說，如果我們不採取其他行動，我們會得到 300 個基點嗎？也許這是對的。

But again, that's going to change because as you get that you're getting down closer and closer to 60 low 60s and then you're going to look around and see what is the competitive environment. What do you, what do you have to do as you get there? That's, you're not going to go through that.

但是，情況又會改變，因為當你越來越接近 60 出頭時，你會環顧四周，看看競爭環境是什麼樣的。當你到達那裡時你必須做什麼？也就是說，你不會經歷這些。

So the question is how close, how quick and when do you do it? I don't think it look, I don't think the right answer here is to have an algorithm from this point on other than to say to you, I think we can get a lot of savings and then offset that by any outsized investment in a new business that is outsized. I think inside of that comp ratio, we always do think we're going to hire some people.

所以問題是您要多接近、多快、何時做到？我不認為這看起來正確，我不認為這裡的正確答案是從現在開始有一個演算法，而不是告訴你，我認為我們可以得到很多節省，然後透過對新業務的任何超額投資來抵消這些節省。我認為，在那個薪資比率中，我們總是認為我們會僱用一些人。

So I don't want to say that. But if we do something in which let's say PA, which could be a sizable thing that might affect it too. So it's complicated and Joe told me not to do it and I made the mistake.

所以我不想這麼說。但是如果我們在 PA 中做一些事情，這可能是一件很重要的事情，也可能會對它產生影響。所以這很複雜，喬告訴我不要這樣做，但我犯了錯。

I mean, again, remember the purpose that we were at an 83% comp ratio in 2023. We wanted to demonstrate that there was a path to getting -- to something that was more reasonable. And that's why we put out that, that algorithm, I think it's going to be more difficult to be precise around that given some of the opportunities that are before us with respect to investment and where we are today, but we will be striving for operating leverage. That is absolutely on the on the bingo card.

我的意思是，再次記住我們在 2023 年的目標，即 83% 的複合年率。這就是我們提出該演算法的原因，我認為，考慮到我們面臨的一些投資機會以及我們目前的狀況，要精確地做到這一點會更加困難，但我們將努力實現營運槓桿。這絕對是在賓果卡上。

Thank you. And everyone at this time, there are no further questions. I'll hand things back to our speakers for any additional or closing remarks.

謝謝。各位，此時，沒有其他問題了。我將把發言者交還給我們的發言人，讓他們做進一步的發言或結束語。

Well, thanks for joining us and we hope to come back and continue to improve all all the elements that you've been asking about. So, thank you.

好吧，感謝您的加入我們，我們希望回來繼續改進您所詢問的所有元素。所以，謝謝你。

And once again, everyone that does conclude today's conference. We would like to thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

再次，大家結束今天的會議。我們感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。