Moelis & Co (MC) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Moelis & Company earnings conference call for the third quarter of 2024. To begin, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Matt Tsukroff.

下午好，歡迎參加 Moelis & Company 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。首先，我會把電話轉給 Matt Tsukroff 先生。

Good afternoon and thank you for joining us for Moelis & Company's third quarter 2024 financial results conference call. On the phone today are Ken Moelis, Chairman and CEO; and Joe Simon, Chief Financial Officer.

下午好，感謝您參加 Moelis & Company 2024 年第三季財務業績電話會議。今天接聽電話的是董事長兼執行長肯‧莫里斯 (Ken Moelis)；和首席財務官喬·西蒙。

Before we begin, I would like to note that the remarks made on this call may contain certain forward-looking statements which are subject to various risks and uncertainties, including those identified from time to time in the Risk Factors section of Moelis & Company's filings with the SEC. Actual results could differ materially from those currently anticipated. The firm undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，我想指出，本次電話會議中的言論可能包含某些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到各種風險和不確定性的影響，包括Moelis & Company 向其提交的文件的風險因素部分中不時確定的風險和不確定性。實際結果可能與目前預期有重大差異。該公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Our comments today include references to certain adjusted financial measures, we believe these measures, when presented together with comparable GAAP measures, are useful to investors to compare our results across several periods and to better understand our operating results.

我們今天的評論包括參考某些調整後的財務指標，我們相信這些指標與可比較的公認會計準則指標一起提出時，有助於投資者比較我們在多個時期的業績，並更好地了解我們的經營業績。

The reconciliation of these adjusted financial measures with the relevant GAAP financial information and other information required by Reg G is provided in the firm's earnings release, which can be found on our Investor Relations website at investors.moelis.com.

這些調整後的財務指標與相關 GAAP 財務資訊和 Reg G 要求的其他資訊的調整在公司的收益報告中提供，該報告可以在我們的投資者關係網站 Investors.moelis.com 上找到。

I'll now turn the call over to Joe to discuss our results.

現在我將把電話轉給喬討論我們的結果。

Thanks, Matt. Good afternoon, everyone. On today's call, I'll go through our financial results, and then Ken will comment further on the business.

謝謝，馬特。大家下午好。在今天的電話會議上，我將詳細介紹我們的財務業績，然後肯將進一步評論該業務。

We reported $281 million of adjusted revenues in the third quarter. Our adjusted revenues for the first nine months were $763 million, up 18% from the prior year period. The year-over-year increase in revenues for the first nine months of the year is driven by growth across all major product areas and our year-to-date revenue distribution remains approximately 60% M&A, 40% non-M&A.

我們報告第三季調整後營收為 2.81 億美元。我們前 9 個月的調整後營收為 7.63 億美元，比去年同期成長 18%。今年前 9 個月的營收年增率是由所有主要產品領域的成長推動的，而我們年初至今的營收分配仍然約 60% 是併購，40% 是非併購。

Moving to expenses. Our third quarter compensation expense was accrued at 75%, consistent with the first two quarters. Our non-compensation expenses in the third quarter were $48 million, and we expect a similar non-comp expense result in quarter four.

轉向開支。我們第三季的薪資費用應計率為 75%，與前兩季一致。第三季的非薪酬支出為 4,800 萬美元，我們預期第四季的非薪酬支出結果類似。

Moving to taxes. Our underlying corporate tax rate was 34%, consistent with the prior quarter. Regarding capital allocation, the Board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.60 per share, consistent with the prior period. And lastly, we continue to maintain a strong balance sheet with $298 million of cash and no debt.

轉向稅收。我們的基本企業稅率為 34%，與上一季一致。關於資本分配，董事會宣佈定期派發每股 0.60 美元的季度股息，與上一季一致。最後，我們繼續保持強勁的資產負債表，擁有 2.98 億美元現金且無債務。

And I'll now turn the call over to Ken.

我現在會把電話轉給肯。

Thanks, Joe, and good afternoon, everyone. We've seen gradual improvement in the M&A market throughout the year. Equity market valuations are at or near all-time highs. The Fed has changed course and appears to be committed to lower interest rates, although the pace may be up for debate. At the same time, rapid innovation driven by technology fuels the need for M&A. And these factors suggest we are getting closer to the next up cycle in M&A.

謝謝喬，大家下午好。我們看到全年併購市場逐步改善。股市估值處於或接近歷史高點。聯準會已經改變方針，似乎致力於降低利率，儘管降息步伐可能存在爭議。同時，技術驅動的快速創新推動了併購的需求。這些因素表明我們正在接近併購的下一個上升週期。

In our capital structure advisory business, we continue to experience elevating activity and engagement with clients. We anticipate a prolonged restructuring cycle centered around liability management exercises due to a large amount of noninvestment-grade debt maturing in the next few years.

在我們的資本結構諮詢業務中，我們不斷提升與客戶的活動和互動。由於大量非投資等級債務將在未來幾年到期，我們預計以負債管理活動為中心的重組週期將會延長。

Turning to capital markets. The rise of private credit has allowed us to compete with the legacy banks on arranging capital for our clients. This market actually appears to be larger and developing more rapidly than we had anticipated. We were early to identify, and we have invested in this secular trend. We continue to experience strong demand for structured capital solutions as issuers look to grow their businesses or to refinance upcoming maturities.

轉向資本市場。私人信貸的興起使我們能夠在為客戶安排資本方面與傳統銀行競爭。這個市場實際上似乎比我們預期的更大並且發展得更快。我們很早就發現了這一長期趨勢，並對其進行了投資。隨著發行人尋求發展業務或即將到期的債券再融資，我們對結構性資本解決方案的需求持續強勁。

Turning to talent. We recently added a biotech MD, who is set to join the firm next month. Our recruiting efforts remain active, and we will continue to selectively add talent in areas of key strategic importance to the firm. Our expertise across products, sectors and regions has deepened, allowing us to deliver even more impactful, independent and conflict-free advice. We are well positioned to drive long-term growth.

轉向人才。我們最近增加了一位生技董事總經理，他將於下個月加入公司。我們的招募工作仍然活躍，我們將繼續有選擇地在對公司具有關鍵策略意義的領域中添加人才。我們在產品、產業和地區的專業知識不斷加深，使我們能夠提供更有影響力、獨立和無衝突的建議。我們已做好充分準備來推動長期成長。

And with that, I'll open it up for questions.

接下來，我將開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Devin Ryan, Citizens JMP.

（操作員說明）Devin Ryan，Citizens JMP。

First question, just on comp ratio kind of near term and intermediate term. Revenue is up 18% year-to-date. I think comp expense is up about 7%. So you're already seeing some leverage there, but obviously, backlogs appear to be building.

第一個問題，只是關於近期和中期的補償比率。今年迄今為止，收入增長了 18%。我認為補償費用增加了約 7%。所以你已經看到了一些槓桿作用，但顯然積壓的訂單似乎正在增加。

So just love to get some sense around whether you feel like there might be some positive leverage in the fourth quarter off of the 75% level and then how we should think about that relationship into 2025. Should we still think about kind of that guide that you guys have been previously given every -- I think, $100 million or so is 4 to 5 points. Just how we should think about that, that connection as we look into 2025 and beyond?

因此，我想了解您是否認為第四季可能會在 75% 的水平上出現一些積極的槓桿作用，然後我們應該如何考慮到 2025 年的這種關係。我們是否也應該考慮一下你們之前收到的那種指南——我認為，1 億美元左右就是 4 到 5 分。當我們展望 2025 年及以後時，我們該如何思考這種連結？

I'm going to ask Joe to reiterate because I think we think the model that we gave you that kind of algorithm works. And your question about the fourth quarter is yeah, dependent on the fourth quarter revenue. This market continues to show signs of having energy behind it and having a desire or again, I've said this, I think, two or three calls now, but our pipelines continue to be at all-time highs. Our announced transactions are all-time highs. The amount of activity is very significant and yet the time to complete the transactions continues to be longer than you'd see in a full-scale bull market.

我要請喬重申一下，因為我認為我們認為我們為您提供的那種演算法的模型是有效的。你關於第四季的問題是的，取決於第四季的收入。這個市場繼續顯示出背後有能量、有慾望的跡象，或者我已經說過了，我想，現在有兩三個電話，但我們的管道仍然處於歷史最高水平。我們宣布的交易量創歷史新高。活動量非常大，但完成交易的時間仍然比全面牛市中看到的要長。

So I just don't think we've seen the increase in the speed to market that we might have thought we saw when the Fed first started to move rates. So yeah, the answer is there is leverage, and I hope the fourth quarter continues on the pace of improvement that we've seen. And I think I'll turn it over to Joe for a second, but I think the algorithm we gave you on 4 to 5 points per $100 million still holds true.

因此，我認為我們並沒有看到聯準會首次開始調整利率時所認為的入市速度的加快。所以，是的，答案是存在槓桿作用，我希望在第四季度繼續保持我們所看到的改善步伐。我想我會把它交給 Joe 一會兒，但我認為我們為您提供的每 1 億美元 4 到 5 個點的演算法仍然適用。

Yeah, I think that's right. The -- it does barring any significant hiring phase, which we don't expect at this time. So I think that the algorithm is still relevant.

是的，我認為這是對的。- 它確實禁止任何重要的招募階段，而我們目前預計不會發生這種情況。所以我認為這個演算法還是有意義的。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then just a follow-up, Ken, just on the interplay M&A with interest rates. So obviously, we've been talking about rates coming down as a catalyst, but we just had one move, right, and it was recent, and we're still pretty far away from, I think, what many people consider a neutral rate.

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。肯，接下來是關於併購與利率相互作用的後續行動。顯然，我們一直在談論利率下降作為催化劑，但我們只是採取了一項舉措，對吧，而且是最近的，我認為我們離許多人認為的中性利率還很遠。

So in terms of sponsor reengagement, do you think we need to kind of see where rates settle out to really see reacceleration? Or is this just the rates coming down, people see the writing and so they're starting to try to progress things with the expectation that by the time you're actually getting to closing a deal, rates will maybe be closer to that neutral rate. I'm just curious kind of how that interplay is working out based on the first move we've seen.

那麼，就贊助商重新參與而言，您認為我們是否需要看看費率穩定在哪裡才能真正看到重新加速？或者這只是利率下降，人們看到了文字，所以他們開始嘗試取得進展，期望當你真正完成交易時，利率可能會更接近中性利率。我只是好奇這種相互作用是如何基於我們所看到的第一步而發揮作用的。

A lot of that question, Devin, anticipates that I know exactly what the neutral rate is or the Fed does or anybody does. Interestingly, the 10-year probably disagrees with you and has moved in the other direction, maybe that's causing some of the slowdown. But I think the whole system will move together. What's -- we find that the sponsors are engaged. It's very different than it was, I'd say, 18 months ago when the default was -- everybody knew you weren't going to do anything. It was kind of like Waiting for Godot, waiting for something to happen.

德文，很多這樣的問題預計我確切地知道中性利率是什麼，或是聯準會做什麼，或任何人做什麼。有趣的是，10 年期公債可能不同意你的觀點，並且已經朝另一個方向發展，也許這導致了經濟放緩。但我認為整個系統將共同發展。我們發現贊助商很投入。我想說，這與 18 個月前的情況非常不同，當時的預設是——每個人都知道你不會做任何事情。這有點像《等待果陀》，等待著某件事發生。

We are in active conversations in and around all sorts of things, liability management, private credit placement, M&A, there's a lot of things going on. I still think one of the missing ingredients is, and we were talking about this the other day is there's a lot of partners, sector partners in private equity and others -- placing sponsors like that, that are out there on their front foot. Getting long ideas and maybe even transactions.

我們正在圍繞各種事情進行積極的對話，負債管理、私人信貸配售、併購，有很多事情正在發生。我仍然認為缺少的要素之一是，我們前幾天討論過這個問題，有很多合作夥伴、私募股權領域的合作夥伴和其他人——把這樣的贊助商放在了前面。獲得長期想法，甚至可能是交易。

And then I think it gets back to the investment committee and maybe it's the slowness of the replacement capital. The replacement LP capital, and so the whole system hasn't really started back up where everybody knows they can go back out and raise another fund. And I think somewhere between the partner on the transaction itself and the entity as a firm, an investment committee decides where they're going to allocate capital. Things just seem to slow down a little bit.

然後我認為這又回到了投資委員會，也許是因為補充資本的緩慢。替代有限合夥人資本，因此整個系統還沒有真正啟動，每個人都知道他們可以回去籌集另一筆資金。我認為，在交易合作夥伴本身和公司實體之間，投資委員會決定他們將在哪裡分配資本。事情似乎只是慢了一點。

And the exact opposite happens to the bull market. In 2021, things just accelerated right through to completion. So it can be maybe of interest rates, if the Fed continues to cut, that will restart the whole process. But it's kind of a whole system that will move together, I think.

而牛市的情況則恰恰相反。2021 年，事情加速完成。因此，如果聯準會繼續降息，這可能是利率的問題，這將重新啟動整個過程。但我認為這是一個可以一起移動的整個系統。

Kenneth Worthington, JPMorgan.

肯尼斯‧沃辛頓，摩根大通。

This is sort of a pie in the sky question as well. If we go back to the beginning of the year, Ken, you were optimistic about the outlook for M&A. You're still optimistic about the outlook for M&A. At the beginning of the year, you mentioned that Moelis' pipeline was at in a record levels. We're still at record levels. The S&P is at sort of record highs.

這也是一個天上掉餡餅的問題。如果我們回到今年年初，肯，您對併購前景持樂觀態度。您對併購前景依然樂觀。今年年初，您提到 Moelis 的管道處於創紀錄的水平。我們仍處於創紀錄的水平。標準普爾指數正處於歷史新高。

But M&A, the recovery has been fine so far. You called it gradual. If there are no surprises, so nothing out of left field, so to speak, could 2025 just be another kind of so-so year, better than '24, but maybe disappointing relative to high expectations.

但到目前為止，併購的復甦勢頭良好。你稱之為漸進。如果沒有什麼意外，所以沒有什麼出乎意料的事情，可以這麼說，2025 年可能只是另一種馬馬虎虎的一年，比 24 年更好，但相對於高期望來說可能會令人失望。

And if we have our chat a year from now and activity with so-so rather than great, what are the likely drivers of expectations that -- a reality that falls short of expectations next year? Is it just rates? You mentioned that a lot of things are working together. What else sort of comes to mind on what could drive a mediocre rather than like a really healthy recovery in activity levels next year?

如果我們一年後的談話和活動一般而不是很好，那麼預期的可能驅動因素是什麼——明年的現實低於預期？僅僅是費率嗎？你提到很多事情正在協同工作。對於明年的活動水平會出現平庸而不是真正健康的復甦，我還能想到什麼？

Again, a good question. So I'm going to repeat what I was trying to say, maybe I got too involved. I think everything about it, barring an unseen external event, '25, as you said, I think it will be a good year, it will be somewhere between good and very good. The activity levels are picking up. It is different than it was if you went back a year ago, I don't think we were quite at the levels we were of activity, of optimism, of people on their front foot.

又是一個好問題。所以我要重複我想說的話，也許我太投入了。我認為這一切，除非發生看不見的外部事件，25，正如你所說，我認為這將是美好的一年，它將介於好和非常好之間。活動水準正在回升。如果你回到一年前，情況會有所不同，我認為我們的活動、樂觀和積極主動的程度還沒有達到。

If I had to say one thing, Ken, I think the thing that's going to -- and it might be a derivative of interest rates. But it's the ability to raise capital in the LP market. Is there a Fund 10, behind Fund 9 that is available if you allocate capital and use up your last 25% of capital. And that may not be -- that may be related to interest rates. It's -- I'm not discounting interest rates. It may be related to a lot of things.

肯，如果我必須說一件事，我認為這可能是利率的衍生性商品。但這是在有限合夥人市場籌集資金的能力。如果您分配資本並用完最後 25% 的資本，基金 9 後面是否有基金 10 可用。這可能不是——這可能與利率有關。我不會打折利率。可能和很多事情都有關係。

Because I think the rise in interest rates definitely stopped that allocation of capital going into at least private equity alternatives, a lot of capital is going into private credit alternatives. But if I had a thermometer and you could tell me how that market looked, how the reallocation of capital into the private equity market looked, that might be a derivative, I said, of interest rates, but it would probably be the best indicator of whether we'll have a mediocre recovery or a very good recovery.

因為我認為利率的上升肯定會阻止資本配置至少進入私募股權替代品，因此大量資本正在進入私人信貸替代品。但如果我有一個溫度計，你可以告訴我那個市場的情況如何，資本重新分配到私募股權市場的情況如何，我說，這可能是利率的衍生品，但它可能是我們的復甦是平庸還是非常好。

Brennan Hawken, UBS.

布倫南霍肯，瑞銀集團。

So it's a bit of unusual environment for sure. But as we're thinking about the coming quarter, do you expect that we'll be seeing the typical seasonality and a stronger fourth quarter than what we've been seeing year-to-date. Is the seasonality you think still something we can count on?

所以這肯定是一個不尋常的環境。但當我們考慮下一個季度時，您是否預計我們會看到典型的季節性和比今年迄今為止更強勁的第四季度。您認為季節性仍然值得我們信賴嗎？

Again, I don't want to guide, but yeah. The business seems to feel, and I'm not sure it's totally about the seasonality as much as it -- there'll be some deals that always try to close in the fourth. So that's the little bit of seasonality as people rush to close at year-end.

再說一次，我不想指導，但是的。生意似乎有這樣的感覺，我不確定這是否完全與季節性有關——總是有一些交易試圖在第四季度完成。所以這就是季節性因素，因為人們都在年底匆忙打烊。

The business also seems to be gradually getting better each quarter, somewhere between a gradual or mediocre recovery every quarter. And that could change -- by the way, we're going to have an event here in a couple of weeks, elections. I think what Powell does after that. There's a lot of things that could accelerate that. So it feels like things are improving. Let's put it that way. I'm not going to try to guide to a number. And then I think there are things that could accelerate that.

這項業務似乎每季都在逐漸好轉，介於每季逐漸復甦或平庸復甦之間。這可能會改變——順便說一句，幾週後我們將在這裡舉行一場活動，即選舉。我想鮑威爾在那之後會做什麼。有很多事情可以加速這個過程。所以感覺事情正在改善。這麼說吧。我不會試著指導一個數字。然後我認為有些事情可以加速這個過程。

Okay. Yeah, I wasn't trying to fish for a number, but thanks for the high-level commentary. So if we end up seeing some seasonality then and the leverage as Joe just endorsed earlier on the call, and we have a decent fourth quarter here, it sounds as though you're implying that the 75% comp ratio that we saw in the first 9 months, that's not necessarily the way we're going to shake out for the year, and we have to see how solid the fourth quarter can end up being before we can make that call. Is that fair?

好的。是的，我並不是想撈一個數字，但感謝您的高水準評論。因此，如果我們最終看到一些季節性因素以及喬早些時候在電話會議上認可的槓桿作用，並且我們在第四季度表現不錯，那麼聽起來您似乎在暗示我們在第一季度看到的75％的補償比率9個月，這不一定是我們今年要擺脫的方式，我們必須看看第四季最終能有多穩定，然後才能做出決定。這樣公平嗎？

Yeah, what we look at is what does the run rate as of today based on this market indicate.

是的，我們關注的是截至今天基於這個市場的運行率顯示了什麼。

Brendan O'Brien, Wolfe Research.

布倫丹‧奧布萊恩，沃爾夫研究中心。

I guess to start, I just wanted to talk about head count. While your MD count is down slightly year-on-year, your employee count is up nearly 20%, with a fairly significant increase quarter-on-quarter in 3Q. I just wanted to get a sense as to what drove the big step up in head count, is it simply because you need to fill out some of the teams after the significant recruiting done over the past few years or something else?

我想首先，我只想談談人數。雖然你們的 MD 人數較去年同期略有下降，但你們的員工人數卻成長了近 20%，其中第三季較上季成長相當顯著。我只是想了解是什麼推動了員工人數的大幅增加，是否僅僅是因為在過去幾年進行了大量招聘之後需要填補一些團隊的空缺，還是其他什麼原因？

It's a little bit of both. I think we're a little -- we believe our ratio is a little overstaffed per MD. But I will say some of that is -- there are some sectors where we are recruiting in senior talent where we have junior talent that we liked as well, and that might have -- that might distort it just a little bit, that we kept some teams pending. I think we announced -- we just said we're going to hire a senior biotech banker.

兩者都有一點。我認為，我們認為每個總經理的比例有點人浮於事。但我要說的是，在某些領域，我們正在招募高級人才，我們也有喜歡的初級人才，這可能會稍微扭曲它，我們保留了這些人才。我想我們剛剛宣布，我們將聘請一名高級生物技術銀行家。

Those types of ratios might end up as a result of having a team that we think is capable of calling on it, but they're not MDs yet, and we're going to bring in MD on top of that. And some of it was is just, again, part of the comp ratio, and I think I've said this before, is as deals take longer and your backlog kind of stays there, you don't abandon your backlog. You sort of have all the deals that you thought you were going to do six months ago. And you still have all the deals that you want to execute on in the next six months.

這些類型的比率可能最終是由於擁有我們認為有能力調用它的團隊的結果，但他們還不是 MD，我們將在此基礎上引入 MD。其中一些只是補償比率的一部分，我想我之前已經說過，因為交易需要更長的時間並且你的積壓訂單會留在那裡，你不會放棄你的積壓訂單。你已經擁有了六個月前你認為要做的所有交易。而且您仍然擁有未來六個月內想要執行的所有交易。

And so I think some of it is drawing out of the pipeline and backlog and even the length of time it gets to take deals done, you end up with a larger head count just because you can't walk away from them. You can't just leave them on the shelf. It's not a commodity. You have to service the client, whose transaction you took on 18 months ago but has not completed.

因此，我認為其中一些是從管道和積壓中抽出的，甚至是完成交易的時間長度，你最終會得到更多的員工，只是因為你無法擺脫他們。你不能把它們放在架子上。它不是商品。您必須為客戶提供服務，您在 18 個月前接受了該客戶的交易，但尚未完成。

Yeah. And just one correction, Brendan. I'm not sure what figure you're looking at. But year-to-date, I think we're closer to 12%, not 20%.

是的。還有一點更正，布倫丹。我不確定你在看什麼數字。但今年迄今為止，我認為我們更接近 12%，而不是 20%。

I was looking at year-on-year, Joe. Because I wasn't sure if there's some seasonality in terms of like summer hiring and the like, but Yeah. No, that all makes sense, Ken. I guess for my follow-up, I just wanted to touch on capital allocation.

我正在查看同比情況，喬。因為我不確定夏季招聘等方面是否存在季節性，但是是的。不，這一切都有道理，肯。我想我的後續行動只是想談談資本配置。

And specifically, whether you would consider doing an acquisition to accelerate growth. I know it's something that you've not been interested in previously, but given where you and your peers are trading today, it feels like there could be some interesting opportunities out there to leverage your multiple to do some accretive acquisitions and accelerate growth. So just want to get a sense as to how your thinking has evolved here, if at all.

具體來說，您是否會考慮進行收購以加速成長。我知道這是您以前不感興趣的事情，但考慮到您和您的同行今天的交易情況，感覺可能存在一些有趣的機會，可以利用您的市盈率進行一些增值收購併加速增長。所以只是想了解你的思維在這裡是如何演變的（如果有的話）。

So I'm not -- I've never been 100% against acquisitions. I just -- there's never going to be -- I don't see a way that a large M&A deal happens, by the way, again, you're a function of where you've grown up in the world. I was at DLJ when Credit Suisse merged. I don't think I can ever do a transaction of that magnitude. But what we did with SVB, in my mind, was as close to an acquisition as you can get.

所以我不是——我從來沒有100%反對收購。我只是——永遠不會——我不認為大型併購交易會發生，順便說一句，再說一遍，你是你在世界上成長的地方的函數。瑞士信貸合併時我在 DLJ。我認為我永遠無法完成如此規模的交易。但在我看來，我們對 SVB 所做的一切最接近收購。

We took 50 bankers out without doing an acquisition. So I think there are -- is that type of a situation where you might have to accomplish it through, as you said, a purchase, I'm not averse to that. If it makes sense, if it's the right price, if it's the right culture, I think they're very difficult to do.

我們沒有進行收購就撤掉了 50 名銀行家。所以我認為，在這種情況下，你可能必須透過購買來完成它，我並不反對這樣做。如果有意義，如果價格合適，如果文化合適，我認為它們很難做到。

I think the earn-out method of buying those comes with risks. They don't show up for five years. I know that can make financials look good. I think at the end of five years and when earn-outs run out, I've seen what can happen. So again, I'm not averse -- I'm not saying I won't do it, but it would be the -- it would look and feel much more like an SVB type of thing that it would anything dramatic.

我認為購買這些產品的獲利方法是有風險的。他們已經五年沒有露面了。我知道這可以讓財務狀況看起來不錯。我認為五年後，當盈利用完時，我已經看到會發生什麼了。再說一次，我並不反對——我不是說我不會這樣做，但它看起來和感覺起來更像是一種 SVB 類型的東西，它會很戲劇化。

Mike Brown, Wells Fargo Securities.

麥克布朗，富國銀行證券。

Ken, I just want to maybe follow up on the comp ratio discussion. How is the competitive landscape in terms of hiring? Are you finding that the fight for talent is getting tougher and resulting in the need to pay up? And are you also finding a need to pay up to retain your talent?

肯，我只是想跟進薪酬比率的討論。招募方面的競爭格局如何？您是否發現人才爭奪戰變得越來越激烈並導致需要付費？您是否也發現需要付費才能留住您的人才？

I guess I'm just trying to figure out if there's potentially some more structural pressure on the comp cost as we start to think more about 2025. And of course, I appreciate the comp ratio algorithm that you guys have laid out, but just trying to think about that dynamic right now.

我想我只是想弄清楚，當我們開始更多地考慮 2025 年時，補償成本是否可能面臨更多的結構性壓力。當然，我很欣賞你們提出的補償比率演算法，但現在只是想考慮一下這種動態。

I would say it feels fairly stable over the last really 18 months, I think there are people available. I think the market has quieted down a little. But as in all markets, there's always going to be 5%, 10% of people who want to move for whatever reasons. I think the large banks continue, especially with this pressure on what I call as, again, this disintermediation of lending from the bank going to private credit. I think the regulators have our intent on pushing risky credit off of the major bank's balance sheet and into the private credit market. I think that's what's driving that market.

我想說，在過去的 18 個月裡，感覺相當穩定，我認為有人可以利用。我認為市場已經平靜了一些。但與所有市場一樣，總會有 5% 到 10% 的人出於某種原因想要搬家。我認為大型銀行仍在繼續，尤其是在我所說的銀行貸款向私人信貸脫媒的壓力下。我認為監管機構有意將高風險信貸從主要銀行的資產負債表中剔除，進入私人信貸市場。我認為這就是推動該市場的因素。

And as a result, I think bankers who would tend to have gone to those banks in order to be able to provide I call it off-market credit or better credit are going to become more and more available. But I think it's been stable. I mean it's hard to say, overall, if you go for certain segments and there is a shortage in that segment, you could find some pressure. But I think talent is available and it stayed about, look, the market's been pretty flat. I think that the cost of acquisition has been pretty flat for 18 months.

因此，我認為那些傾向於去這些銀行以便能夠提供我稱之為場外信貸或更好信貸的銀行家將變得越來越容易獲得。但我認為它已經穩定了。我的意思是，總的來說，很難說，如果你進入某些細分市場，而該細分市場存在短缺，你可能會發現一些壓力。但我認為人才是可用的，而且人才仍然存在，看，市場相當平淡。我認為收購成本在過去 18 個月相當穩定。

Okay. Great. Just change gears and talk about restructuring. How has activity been holding up there? And when we think about the next 18 months, how do you expect restructuring activity to progress? And what will be kind of the interplay between, call it, traditional restructuring and liability management?

好的。偉大的。只是改變方向並談論重組。那裡的活動進度如何？當我們考慮未來 18 個月時，您預計重組活動將如何進展？傳統重組和負債管理之間的互動會是什麼樣的？

I think it will be more liability management than restructuring because the capital markets are open. Really, the Chapter 11 part of financial restructuring usually happens when you get to a maturity and there's no other alternative. Chapter 11 is always the last alternative, that kind of a full-scale restructuring is the last alternative.

我認為，由於資本市場是開放的，因此更多的是負債管理而不是重組。事實上，財務重組的第 11 章部分通常發生在您到期且別無選擇的情況下。第11章永遠是最後的選擇，那種全面重組是最後的選擇。

And today, there is aggressive money. There's risk-oriented money. There's a lot of capital that will find a way to play in a capitalization and extend maturity. There's also -- again, the liability management exercises we do now are pretty sophisticated. The large institutions are willing to participate and do the analysis. And if the company has a valid business usually provide runway. So I think that will be the dominant part of what we call restructuring.

如今，資金進取。有風險導向的資金。有很多資本會找到一種方式來發揮資本作用並延長成熟度。此外，我們現在所做的責任管理工作也相當複雜。大型機構願意參與並進行分析。而如果公司擁有有效的業務通常會提供跑道。所以我認為這將是我們所說的重組的主要部分。

And I think it's going to be gradual and continuous because the size of the credit market just has gotten so much bigger over the last seven or eight years, and it's -- you can almost do a regression and it's the amount of restructuring or liability management you have is a direct correlative event to how much issuance happened somewhere between two to four years before the event. There's just going to be a percentage of issues. And if the market is growing, the liability management market will continue to grow.

我認為這將是漸進和持續的，因為信貸市場的規模在過去七八年裡已經變得越來越大，而且你幾乎可以做一個回歸，這是重組或負債管理的數量您所看到的是與該事件發生前兩到四年之間發生的發行量直接相關的事件。只會有一定比例的問題。如果市場不斷成長，負債管理市場也將持續成長。

Aidan Hall, KBW.

艾丹·霍爾，KBW。

Ken, maybe just a follow-up on your M&A comments or large team lift-outs. Curious how you would characterize appetite for not just like traditional M&A bankers, but maybe some of the non-M&A capabilities, obviously, private capital advisory, primary fundraising as well are areas that come to mind that some of your competitors have been a little more aggressive in kind of growing. So any appetite there? Do you guys have ambitions to grow in those verticals?

肯，也許只是您的併購評論或大型團隊離職的後續行動。很好奇您如何描述對傳統併購銀行家的興趣，也許還有一些非併購能力，顯然，私人資本諮詢、主要籌款以及您的一些競爭對手在這些領域的表現要強一些侵略性的增長。那麼有胃口嗎？你們有在這些垂直領域發展的野心嗎？

Yeah. The answer is yeah and yeah. We have significant ambitions to be in there. We think it's an important part. One of the things we want to be is the most valuable and important provider of services to the private equity community and alternatives private credit as well. So we're looking at that.

是的。答案是肯定的。我們有雄心壯志要進入那裡。我們認為這是一個重要的部分。我們希望成為私募股權界和替代性私人信貸最有價值和最重要的服務提供者。所以我們正在研究這個。

And yeah, if that were -- that would be on the order something that I think would look and feel like almost an SVB. When I use that, it's just of a size that -- of the size and shape that if it were something that made sense for us, might make sense in M&A as well as hiring talent either way.

是的，如果是這樣的話——我認為這將是看起來和感覺上幾乎像一個 SVB 的東西。當我使用它時，它的大小和形狀如果對我們有意義，可能對併購以及招募人才有意義。

Got it. I appreciate the color there. And maybe just a follow up on Brendan's question about kind of head count more on a sequential basis. It looks like the MD head count decreased by five quarter-over-quarter. Anything to call out there? It just seems pretty elevated, but I know there can be some noise here and clarifications. So I just want to clarify.

知道了。我很欣賞那裡的顏色。也許只是布倫丹關於按順序統計人數的問題的後續行動。看起來 MD 人數較上季減少了 5 名。那裡有什麼要喊的嗎？它看起來相當高，但我知道這裡可能會有一些噪音和澄清。所以我只想澄清一下。

Yeah. I think what happens is those might have occurred four, five, six months ago. Some that are voluntary or we might give people time. There's also a garden leave if somebody would leave. So yeah, I think those are a result of things that might have happened in and around bonus time or after right around that time where I'm not saying they're all managed, but we manage our head count.

是的。我認為所發生的事情可能發生在四、五、六個月前。有些是自願的，或者我們可能會給人們時間。如果有人要離開的話，還有花園假。所以，是的，我認為這些是可能在獎金期間或之後發生的事情的結果，我並不是說它們都得到了管理，但我們管理了我們的人數。

Some of them are not on our things that we promote. But I do think that's what happens. It's -- it takes time, sometimes four, five, six months for an exit to show up in your headcount.

其中一些不屬於我們推廣的產品。但我確實認為事情就是這樣發生的。退出需要時間，有時是四、五、六個月，才會出現在你的員工人數中。

(Operator Instructions) Ryan Kenny, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）Ryan Kenny，摩根士丹利。

Just on the comments around longer lag to complete transactions. Can you just give us an update on what's still driving that? Is it all regulatory driven? Is it just a longer vetting process? And do you expect that lag to normalize as the cycle picks up and sponsors start coming back and forth?

只是關於完成交易的延遲較長的評論。您能否向我們介紹一下推動這一趨勢的最新情況？都是監管驅動的嗎？這只是一個更長的審查過程嗎？隨著週期的加快和贊助商開始來回，您是否預計這種滯後會正常化？

It can be all of the above. I think in the public markets, it can be some regulatory, in the private markets is usually not regulatory in private equity. But I do think, again, these dynamics are kind of interesting. You have these large organizations and sector partners go out and we might have a product that is attractive to them.

它可以是以上所有。我認為在公開市場上，可以進行一些監管，在私募市場上通常不會對私募股權進行監管。但我確實認為這些動態很有趣。你有這些大型組織和部門合作夥伴出去，我們可能有一個對他們有吸引力的產品。

You might go through a long process of which you're getting close to having a transaction. Well, when it gets coordinated inside the larger entity, the investment committee of that entity, it might not be the right time for their capital, for their fundraise needs, for their exit needs. There's -- I think there's a lot of dynamics going on around positioning private equity and trying to figure out how much capital do we have in Fund I, when do we want Fund V, whatever fund you're in? When do we want to go to market?

您可能會經歷一個漫長的過程，在這個過程中您即將完成交易。好吧，當它在更大的實體（該實體的投資委員會）內部進行協調時，對於他們的資本、融資需求和退出需求來說，這可能不是合適的時機。我認為，圍繞著私募股權的定位，並試圖弄清楚我們在基金 I 中擁有多少資本，我們什麼時候需要基金 V，以及您所在的基金是什麼，存在著很多動態。我們什麼時候想去市場？

I think in 2020 and 2021, again, I use those markets because they were kind of the epitome of a bull market. The answer was we can complete that transaction and the sooner the better because if we want to go back to market and raise another fund, everybody is waiting for, and we already have commitments and things will roll. The fundraising market has been very slow. That's been -- if you think M&A has been painful, I think the active fundraising in the private equity market was extremely slow in '23, getting a little better in '24 and people are hoping for a brighter '25.

我認為在 2020 年和 2021 年，我會再次使用這些市場，因為它們是牛市的縮影。答案是我們可以完成這筆交易，而且越早越好，因為如果我們想回到市場並籌集另一筆資金，每個人都在等待，而且我們已經做出了承諾，一切都會順利進行。融資市場一直非常緩慢。如果你認為併購是痛苦的，那麼我認為私募股權市場的積極融資在 23 年極其緩慢，在 24 年有所好轉，人們希望 25 年會更加光明。

But I also think the inability to project that and feel confident about that, I think slows everybody down in the process. I think that's just one of those things that is lurking behind the scenes as part of the slowdown. And so -- and by the way, it's not always when you have a deal.

但我也認為，無法預測這一點並對此充滿信心，我認為這會減慢每個人在這個過程中的速度。我認為這只是經濟放緩背後隱藏的因素之一。所以——順便說一句，這並不總是當你達成協議的時候。

Look, there are bake-offs we've done, been assigned a project and done the diligence, gotten to work on it and then it was put on hold for six months. That happens, too. So it's not all regulatory. It's not all market. It's not all interest rates. It's a whole bunch of things that just come together when markets are rockier or do not seem to be -- interest rates do not seem to be going rapidly in one direction and definitely, the funding from private sources does not seem to be going directly in one direction. So I think it's all of the above.

看，我們已經完成了一些烘烤，被分配了一個項目並完成了盡職調查，開始工作，然後它被擱置了六個月。這種情況也會發生。所以這並不全是監管。這不全是市場。並非全部都是利率。當市場波動或看似波動不大時，一系列因素就會聚集在一起——利率似乎並沒有朝一個方向快速變化，而且肯定的是，來自私人來源的資金似乎並沒有直接流入市場。 。所以我認為以上都是。

All right. Helpful. And then one technical question. On the $7 million gain on Moelis Australia shares, was that a one-off? And any update on how Australia fits into your strategy from here?

好的。有幫助。然後是一個技術問題。Moelis Australia 股票上漲 700 萬美元，這是一次性的嗎？關於澳洲如何融入您的策略有什麼最新消息嗎？

Australia has been -- when we started with Australia, it was purely advisory, and we wanted to do advice with them. They have been very entrepreneurial and they created a pretty significant public company down there called MA Financial now. That was a reverse inquiry. They called us up. They went public, I think, 4 years ago, or something.

澳洲一直——當我們開始與澳洲合作時，這純粹是建議性的，我們想與他們一起提供建議。他們非常有創業精神，他們在那裡創建了一家相當重要的上市公司，現在稱為 MA Financial。那是反向詢問。他們打電話給我們。我想，他們是在 4 年前上市的。

They called this up and said we have a buyer for 5 million shares and we just decided why not take the liquidity and do it. It was helpful to them, and it was helpful to us. We continue to do things with them. We continue to use them and co-advise on anything that happens in Australia. It's a significant alliance for us. And we have no plans on any of the other stocks that happened to be reverse inquiries, so we executed.

他們打電話給我們並說我們有一個買家購買 500 萬股，我們只是決定為什麼不利用流動性並這樣做。這對他們有幫助，對我們也有幫助。我們繼續與他們一起做事。我們將繼續使用它們，並就澳洲發生的任何事情共同提供建議。這對我們來說是一個重要的聯盟。我們沒有計劃對任何其他碰巧被反向詢問的股票進行，所以我們執行了。

James Yaro, Goldman Sachs.

詹姆斯·亞羅，高盛。

I think we've seen a couple of recent successful sponsor IPOs. Is that something that's starting to come up in your dialogues with private equity and do you think that's something that could lead to more activity either in ECM or M&A in that part of the market?

我認為我們最近已經看到了幾起成功的保薦人首次公開募股。這是您與私募股權公司對話中開始出現的問題嗎？

I think there'll be more sponsor IPO. Some of the transactions are large enough that finding an exit buyer is difficult. Very successful large buyouts end up having even larger exits. And the IPO market, I think, is an obvious place for them to go.

我認為將會有更多的IPO保薦人。有些交易規模夠大，很難找到退出買家。非常成功的大型收購最終會導致更大的退出。我認為，IPO 市場顯然是他們的去向。

And look, again, with the stock market at all-time highs and interest rates coming down, you would expect to see an IPO market develop. It's actually kind of strange. Nasdaq is an all-time high. So it's kind of strange that there is no IPO market.

再看一次，隨著股市處於歷史高點和利率下降，你會期望看到 IPO 市場的發展。這實際上有點奇怪。那斯達克指數創歷史新高。所以沒有IPO市場有點奇怪。

And I think -- if people come to market with the right price with quality product, that there will be an IPO market and people will take advantage of it.

我認為，如果人們以合適的價格和優質的產品進入市場，就會出現 IPO 市場，人們會利用它。

Okay. Just a quick one here. Maybe any way you could just size the percentage contribution to revenue this quarter from restructuring and capital markets versus M&A?

好的。這裡只是快速介紹一下。也許有什麼方法可以衡量本季重組和資本市場與併購對營收的貢獻百分比？

Yeah. I think M&A was about 60 and all the other was about 40. So that's been pretty consistent throughout the year.

是的。我認為併購大約有 60 起，其他的大約有 40 起。所以這一年的情況非常穩定。

At this time, there are no further questions. And I would like to turn it back over to Mr. Ken Moelis. Please go ahead.

目前，沒有其他問題了。我想把它轉回肯·莫里斯先生。請繼續。

Thank you very much. Appreciate it. Look forward to talking to you after the end of the year.

非常感謝。欣賞它。期待年底後與您交談。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。