在 Mobileye 2023 年第四季財報電話會議上,該公司公佈了強勁的營收和調整後營業收入成長業績。他們強調了 SuperVision 產品的成功,並預計在 2024 年繼續成長。
該公司討論了擴大其在汽車行業影響力的策略,並宣布了設計勝利和 OEM 擴張。他們也解決了影響 2024 年上半年的庫存調整問題,但計劃在下半年恢復正常收入。
Mobileye 提供了他們與 OEM 廠商的合作、在中國的競爭格局以及對未來成長的預期的最新資訊。他們預計 ADAS 在行業中的市場份額會增加,採用率也會提高。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Hello, everyone, and welcome to Mobileye's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call for the period ending December 30, 2023.
大家好,歡迎參加 Mobileye 於 2023 年 12 月 30 日結束的 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。
Please note that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements based on the business environment as we currently see it.
請注意,今天的討論包含基於我們目前所看到的商業環境的前瞻性陳述。
Such statements involve risks and uncertainties.
此類陳述涉及風險和不確定性。
Please refer to the accompanying press release which includes additional information on the specific factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.
請參閱隨附的新聞稿,其中包含有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的具體因素的更多資訊。
Additionally, on this call, we will refer to both GAAP and non-GAAP figures.
此外,在這次電話會議上,我們將參考公認會計原則和非公認會計原則資料。
A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures is provided in our posted earnings release.
我們發布的收益報告中提供了 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。
Joining us on the call today are Professor Amnon Shashua, Mobileye's CEO and President, and Moran Shemesh, Mobileye's CFO.
今天加入我們電話會議的有 Mobileye 執行長兼總裁 Amnon Shashua 教授和 Mobileye 財務長 Moran Shemesh。
Also joining today for the Q&A session is Nimrod Nehushtan, Mobileye's Executive Vice President of Strategy and Business Development.
Mobileye 策略和業務開發執行副總裁 Nimrod Nehushtan 也參加了今天的問答環節。
Thanks, and now I'll turn the call over to Amnon.
謝謝,現在我會把電話轉給 Amnon。
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Thanks, Dan.
謝謝,丹。
Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining our earnings call.
大家好,感謝您參加我們的財報電話會議。
Starting with our results in Q4, they were in line with the press release we provided on January 4, 2024, and with the prior guide, so no surprises here.
從我們第四季的結果開始,它們與我們在 2024 年 1 月 4 日提供的新聞稿以及先前的指南一致,所以這裡沒有什麼意外。
At a high level, Q4 was a strong quarter in terms of revenue growth of 13% and adjusted operating income growth of 14%.
從高水準來看,第四季是一個強勁的季度,營收成長 13%,調整後營業收入成長 14%。
We are pleased with the sequential growth and SuperVision volumes and we expect to see continued excellent growth in that product in 2024.
我們對 SuperVision 的連續成長和銷售感到滿意,預計 2024 年該產品將繼續實現出色成長。
I'd also call attention to our operating expenses, which were significantly lower than what we expected in 2023, much of which relates to transitory issues, but also some of which captures efficiencies that should benefit our cost structure over the long term.
我還想提請注意我們的營運支出,該支出明顯低於我們2023 年的預期,其中大部分與暫時性問題有關,但也有一些提高了效率,從長遠來看,這應該有利於我們的成本結構。
Looking ahead, the guidance we provided today is unchanged from the outlook we provided in early January.
展望未來,我們今天提供的指引與一月初提供的展望沒有改變。
The inventory correction that is impacting the first half of the year has been well publicized.
影響今年上半年的庫存調整已經廣為人知。
While we did not learn of this build up until late in the year, we believe we have our arms around this issue and the clear out plan.
雖然我們直到今年年底才了解到這一情況,但我們相信我們已經解決了這個問題並制定了明確的計劃。
We have implemented additional processes to more closely monitor shipments versus demand.
我們實施了額外的流程來更密切地監控出貨與需求。
And we believe we have good visibility into how to put this behind us and get back to normalized revenue in the back half of 2024.
我們相信,我們很清楚如何擺脫這一困境,並在 2024 年下半年恢復正常收入。
Moran will provide some additional cover.
莫蘭將提供一些額外的掩護。
Switching gears, as we close out 2023 and come out of CES, it's a good time to remind you of our high level strategy and assess the progress made.
轉換方向,當我們結束 2023 年並走出 CES 之際,現在是提醒您我們的高層策略並評估所取得進展的好時機。
Our strategy is very simple.
我們的策略非常簡單。
Our products were in about 40% of auto production in 2023 and the higher percentage of vehicles would aid us.
到 2023 年,我們的產品約佔汽車產量的 40%,更高的車輛比例將對我們有所幫助。
We can continue to grow that in the coming years as a bigger and bigger percentage of cars are equipped with some level of driving assist technology.
隨著越來越多的汽車配備一定程度的駕駛輔助技術,我們可以在未來幾年繼續發展這一點。
But the more important growth driver is average revenue per vehicle, driven by our advanced portfolio products.
但更重要的成長動力是由我們先進的產品組合推動的每輛車的平均收入。
SuperVision, Chauffeur, and Drive would generate much higher average system prices than our core ADAS products.
SuperVision、Chauffeur 和 Drive 的平均係統價格將比我們的核心 ADAS 產品高得多。
Events and progress in 2023 gave us more confidence than ever that a very large market for these advanced products is developing, and that our technology and business model makes us best positioned to enable and win in that market.
2023 年發生的事件和進展讓我們比以往任何時候都更有信心,相信這些先進產品的巨大市場正在發展,而我們的技術和商業模式使我們處於最佳位置,能夠在該市場中實現並獲勝。
On the industry segment itself, we see three clear distinct value propositions that we expect will drive consumer demand and turn into a new, very large automotive TAM.
就產業區隔本身而言,我們看到了三個明確的價值主張,我們預計這些價值主張將推動消費者需求並轉變為新的超大型汽車 TAM。
Number one is a meaningful improvement in safety, related to the surround cameras that are a must on the next generation of eyes-on, hands-free, Level 2 plus systems like our SuperVision platform.
第一個是安全方面的有意義的改進,與環繞攝影機相關,這是下一代注視、免持、2 級以上系統(如我們的 SuperVision 平台)所必需的。
It is underappreciated that in addition to the convenience of hands-free driving, the 360 degree perception can support a step change in safety.
令人低估的是,除了免持駕駛的便利性之外,360度感知還可以支援安全性的階梯改變。
Current single camera systems don't support the many evasive maneuvers that can limit accidents, like merging into an open lane to avoid a rear-end collision or avoid vehicles running red lights.
目前的單一攝影機系統不支援許多可以限制事故的規避操作,例如併入開放車道以避免追撞或避免車輛闖紅燈。
Number two is the higher productivity for the car owner.
第二是車主的生產力更高。
Eyes-off systems like Chauffeur can offer valuable time back to the car owner.
像 Chauffeur 這樣的無人值守系統可以為車主節省寶貴的時間。
If the operational design domain is only 80% to 90% of the time, this is seen as very high value by automakers.
如果操作設計領域僅佔 80% 到 90% 的時間,那麼這被汽車製造商視為非常高的價值。
Number three is turning vehicles into highly utilized resources.
第三是將車輛變成高利用率的資源。
This corresponds to our fully autonomous Drive product.
這對應於我們的全自動駕駛產品。
We'll be able to offer self-driving systems for lower than the annual cost of a driver.
我們將能夠以低於司機每年的成本提供自動駕駛系統。
This unlocks an ability for our customers to generate revenue at a much lower operating cost per mile and with no need to pay or find drivers.
這使我們的客戶能夠以更低的每英里營運成本創造收入,並且無需付費或尋找司機。
We believe these value propositions align perfectly with our advanced product portfolio.
我們相信這些價值主張與我們先進的產品組合完美契合。
And there was much evidence in 2023 to support our view that those products are the highest performing, most scalable, and lowest cost available options in the market.
2023 年有大量證據支持我們的觀點,即這些產品是市場上性能最高、可擴展性最強且成本最低的可用選項。
At a high level, all the industry trends were in our direction.
從高水準來看,所有行業趨勢都朝著我們的方向發展。
The pace of innovation really picked up in China and the pressure on OEM capital efficiency rose.
中國的創新步伐確實加快了,OEM資本效率的壓力加大。
These both are pushing global OEMs to focus more on programmatic issues like time to market, cost, and performance, exactly where Mobileye has advantages.
這兩者都在推動全球 OEM 廠商更專注於上市時間、成本和性能等程序化問題,而這正是 Mobileye 的優勢所在。
At the same time, we launched the ZEEKR SuperVision software to high praise which was significant proof point.
同時,我們推出的ZEEKR SuperVision軟體獲得高度評價就是一個重要的證明。
Finally, we recently brought to our customers a collaboration framework called DXP that enables the automaker to control the driving experience of a SuperVision or Chauffeur based system.
最後,我們最近為客戶帶來了一個名為 DXP 的協作框架,使汽車製造商能夠控制基於 SuperVision 或 Chauffeur 的系統的駕駛體驗。
Finding sweet spot that enables the OEMs to control the look and feel of the system but rely on our core technologies for all the objective and safety critical aspects is already paying dividends with customers.
找到最佳位置,使原始設備製造商能夠控制系統的外觀和感覺,但依靠我們的核心技術來實現所有目標和安全關鍵方面,這已經為客戶帶來了紅利。
On a more specific basis, we announced the value of our 2023 design wins at CES two weeks ago.
更具體地說,我們兩週前在 CES 上宣布了 2023 年設計獲勝的價值。
Future projected revenue was $7 billion for the second year in a row.
未來預計收入連續第二年達到 70 億美元。
This compares to our 2023 revenue of $2 billion.
相較之下,我們 2023 年的營收為 20 億美元。
Implied ASP of these agreements was $122 in 2023, $105 in 2022.
這些協議的隱含平均售價在 2023 年為 122 美元,在 2022 年為 105 美元。
This compares to ASP for 2021 design wins of $65 and ASP of our actual revenue in 2023 of $53.
相比之下,2021 年設計獲勝的平均售價為 65 美元,2023 年實際收入的平均售價為 53 美元。
The volume associated with the design wins the last two years is $60 million plus compared to mid-$30 million today.
過去兩年與該設計贏得的相關金額為 6000 萬美元以上,而如今為 3000 萬美元左右。
Beyond the design wins, 2023 was an important year for execution, customer acquisition, and expansion of OEMs in the opportunity set.
除了設計上的勝利之外,2023 年對於執行、客戶獲取和 OEM 廠商擴展機會集來說也是重要的一年。
Our SuperVision system is now on more than 190,000 vehicles.
我們的 SuperVision 系統現已安裝在超過 190,000 輛車輛上。
We delivered the full highway software in August and it's providing to be a highly capable system and we have expanded design domain to 22 cities from only two back in September.
我們在 8 月交付了完整的高速公路軟體,它是一個功能強大的系統,我們已將設計範圍從 9 月的兩個城市擴展到 22 個城市。
We believe that proving ourselves in what is the most challenging environment for Mobileye, given data restrictions, proves our global scale and that's unique selling point that is underappreciated.
我們相信,在考慮到資料限制的情況下,在 Mobileye 最具挑戰性的環境中證明自己,可以證明我們的全球規模,而這是被低估的獨特賣點。
We were awarded SuperVision design wins with Porsche, FAW, Mahindra and a major western OEM over the course of 2023.
我們在 2023 年贏得了保時捷、一汽、Mahindra 和一家主要西方 OEM 的 SuperVision 設計獎。
The number of models included in all our design wins are now projected at 30 models as compared to 9 models at the beginning of 2023.
我們所有贏得的設計中包含的車型數量目前預計為 30 款,而 2023 年初為 9 款。
Our portfolio strategy where SuperVision serves as a bridge to Chauffeur is being proven out as Polestar, FAW, and a multi-brand major western OEM, all awarded production programs on the Chauffeur platform during 2023.
我們的投資組合策略(SuperVision 作為通往 Chauffeur 的橋樑)已被 Polestar、一汽和一家多品牌主要西方 OEM 所驗證,所有這些都在 2023 年在 Chauffeur 平台上獲得了生產計劃。
We diversified the business significantly during 2023 from mostly Chinese OEMs and mostly electric vehicles to a diverse set of OEMs, price points, and powertrain types.
2023 年,我們的業務大幅多元化,從主要是中國 OEM 和電動車,到多元化的 OEM、價位和動力總成類型。
The most important catalyst was the landmark design win to bring our entire product set to a major western OEM.
最重要的催化劑是具有里程碑意義的設計勝利,將我們的整個產品系列引入西方主要原始設備製造商。
It's the first global OEM to align behind our complete portfolio, especially mirroring their future intelligent driving product development plan to our portfolio.
它是第一家支援我們完整產品組合的全球原始設備製造商,特別是將他們未來的智慧駕駛產品開發計劃反映到我們的產品組合中。
It is more than doubles the number of vehicle models in the pipeline and spans across all markets and powertrain types.
正在醞釀的車型數量增加了一倍以上,涵蓋所有市場和動力系統類型。
And the endorsement of this automaker will be high value in terms of closing additional deals.
就完成額外交易而言,這家汽車製造商的認可將具有很高的價值。
We were successful in moving many OEMs into our business development funnel as the high-level trends I described earlier increased the sense of urgency in the marketplace and the confidence in our solutions.
我們成功地將許多原始設備製造商轉移到我們的業務發展漏斗中,因為我之前描述的高級趨勢增加了市場的緊迫感和對我們解決方案的信心。
We now have design wins or are in advanced discussions with 11 OEMs representing 37% of industry production as compared to 3 OEMs representing 9% of industry production as of the start of 2023.
目前,我們已贏得設計或正在與 11 家 OEM 廠商進行深入討論,這些 OEM 廠商佔行業產量的 37%,而截至 2023 年初,只有 3 家 OEM 廠商佔行業產量的 9%。
In summary, we know of no other competitor in the ADAS-AV space with a similar breadth of design wins that has actual navigate on-pilot systems in production and has production programs for eyes-off systems with multiple automakers.
總而言之,據我們所知,在ADAS-AV 領域,沒有其他競爭對手擁有類似的設計優勢,能夠在生產中擁有實際的導航導航系統,並與多家汽車製造商共同製定非目視系統的生產計劃。
Overall, as we have shared previously, we do not expect 2024 financial results to be where we want them to be, given the inventory correction.
總體而言,正如我們之前所分享的,鑑於庫存調整,我們預計 2024 年的財務表現不會達到我們想要的水平。
But we expect to leverage all the groundwork laid in 2022 and 2023 to take a leap forward in terms of visibility toward the next leg of our growth story.
但我們希望利用 2022 年和 2023 年奠定的所有基礎,在我們成長故事的下一階段的可見性方面取得飛躍。
I'll now turn the call over to Moran.
我現在將把電話轉給莫蘭。
Moran Rojansky - CFO
Moran Rojansky - CFO
Thank you, Amnon, and thanks for joining the call, everyone.
謝謝阿姆農,也謝謝大家加入我們的電話會議。
Before I begin, please be aware that all my comments on profitability will refer to non-GAAP measurements.
在開始之前,請注意,我對盈利能力的所有評論都將參考非 GAAP 衡量標準。
The primary exclusion in Mobileye's non-GAAP numbers is amortization of intangible assets, which is mainly related to Intel's acquisition of Mobileye in 2017.
Mobileye 的非 GAAP 資料中主要排除的是無形資產攤銷,這主要與英特爾 2017 年收購 Mobileye 有關。
We also exclude stock-based compensation.
我們也排除了以股票為基礎的薪酬。
Starting with Q4 results, we had another very good quarter with revenue up 13% year-over-year, adjusted operating income up 14%, and adjusted operating margin at 39%.
從第四季業績開始,我們又迎來了一個非常好的季度,營收年增 13%,調整後營業收入成長 14%,調整後營業利潤率為 39%。
SuperVision volumes were 38,000 units in Q4, up from 29,000 in Q3.
SuperVision 第四季的銷量為 38,000 台,高於第三季的 29,000 台。
The 67,000 units we did in the second half was significantly higher than 35,000 in the first half.
我們下半年做的6.7萬台,明顯高於上半年的3.5萬台。
Operating expenses were again meaningfully below expectations, about $30 million this quarter.
本季營運支出再次大幅低於預期,約 3,000 萬美元。
There were two main areas, each about the same magnitude.
有兩個主要區域,每個區域的大小大致相同。
Favorable expenses were lower due to favorable ethics and due to some reimbursement for employees on military reserve duty.
由於良好的道德規範以及對軍事預備役僱員的一些報銷,有利費用較低。
The other factor was higher than expected engineering reimbursement for pre-designed win activities with certain OEMs.
另一個因素是與某些原始設備製造商預先設計的獲勝活動的工程報銷高於預期。
Over the course of 2023, our operating margin rose from 27% to 39% on sequentially higher revenue and consistent operating expenses.
2023 年,我們的營業利潤率從 27% 上升至 39%,因為收入連續增加且營業費用保持穩定。
Obviously, this is a backward-looking, but it should give investors some sense of the operating leverage possible once more meaningful SuperVision and Chauffeur volumes start to drive revenue significantly higher.
顯然,這是一種回顧性的做法,但一旦更有意義的 SuperVision 和 Chauffeur 銷售開始顯著推高收入,它應該會讓投資者對營運槓桿可能產生一些認識。
On a cashflow basis, we generated almost $400 million of operating cashflow in fiscal year 2023.
以現金流計算,我們在 2023 財年產生了近 4 億美元的營運現金流。
And it's important to note that we invested around $200 million in rebuilding the safety buffer of EyeQ chips on our own balance sheet.
值得注意的是,我們投資了約 2 億美元,在我們自己的資產負債表上重建 EyeQ 晶片的安全緩衝區。
We expect to maintain a consistent level of balance sheet inventory in 2024.
我們預計 2024 年資產負債表庫存將維持穩定水準。
Capital expenditure was just below $100 million for the year, in line with our prior comments.
與我們先前的評論一致,今年的資本支出略低於 1 億美元。
Looking ahead, you are all aware that as part of the process of setting order schedules for Q1 and the remainder of 2024, we learned that there is 6 million to 7 million units of excess inventory of EyeQ chips at our customers.
展望未來,大家都知道,作為製定第一季和 2024 年剩餘時間訂單規劃過程的一部分,我們了解到我們的客戶有 600 萬至 700 萬個 EyeQ 晶片的過剩庫存。
We understand that much of this excess inventory reflects decisions by Tier 1 customers to build inventory in the basic ADAS category due to supply chain constraints and a desire to avoid part shortages in 2021 and 2022, as well as lower than expected production in certain OEMs during 2023.
我們了解到,庫存過剩很大程度上反映了一級客戶決定在基本ADAS 類別中建立庫存,原因是供應鏈限制以及避免2021 年和2022 年零件短缺的願望,以及某些OEM 的產量低於預期。2023 年。
The inventory situation is related to the base ADAS business only, as SuperVision inventory is at normal level.
庫存情況僅與基礎 ADAS 業務相關,因為 SuperVision 庫存處於正常水準。
As we noted in our January 4th press release and 8-K, we expect Q1 revenue to be down approximately 50% to around $230 million.
正如我們在 1 月 4 日新聞稿和 8-K 中指出的那樣,我們預計第一季營收將下降約 50%,至 2.3 億美元左右。
We expect EyeQ volume to be around $3.4 million units in Q1.
我們預計第一季 EyeQ 銷量約為 340 萬美元。
We expect SuperVision in the low 30,000 unit range, reflecting normal seasonality in China.
我們預計 SuperVision 的銷量將在 30,000 台左右,反映了中國的正常季節性。
Given the unusually low EyeQ volume, SuperVision will be a larger portion of revenues in Q1, which will result in gross margin in the mid-60 range.
鑑於 EyeQ 銷量異常低,SuperVision 將在第一季營收中佔據較大比例,這將導致毛利率在 60 左右左右。
Extracting our operating expenses, which will likely be a bit higher than the recent $200 million run rate, the outlook for Q1 adjusted operating income is for a loss of $65 million to $80 million.
扣除我們的營運費用(可能會略高於最近 2 億美元的運行率),第一季調整後營運收入的前景為虧損 6,500 萬至 8,000 萬美元。
But we see revenue and volume snapping back fairly quickly and believe we have very good visibility on this.
但我們看到收入和銷售迅速回升,並相信我們對此有很好的了解。
Due to the nature of our business, all of this inventory is for specific OEMs and production of specific vehicle platforms.
由於我們業務的性質,所有這些庫存都是針對特定 OEM 和特定車輛平台的生產。
The process to clear the inventory is simply to stop shipping chips for specific vehicles and have our customer use the existing inventory to satisfy demand.
清理庫存的過程只是停止運輸特定車輛的晶片,並讓我們的客戶使用現有庫存來滿足需求。
There is no uncertainty regarding who the customers are, there is no alternative product that can be used, and there is no discounting or other economic action needed to clear the inventory.
客戶是誰沒有不確定性,沒有可以使用的替代產品,也不需要折扣或其他經濟行動來清理庫存。
As we compare our prospective shipment with vehicle production schedule, we believe approximately 5 million units can be cleared in Q1 and the vast majority of the remainder in Q2.
當我們將預期出貨量與汽車生產計畫進行比較時,我們認為第一季可以清除約 500 萬輛,而剩餘的絕大多數可以在第二季清除。
In terms of our full year guidance, it is unchanged from the preliminary outlook we provided in January 4, 2024, and our visibility has improved over the last several weeks.
就我們的全年指引而言,與我們在 2024 年 1 月 4 日提供的初步展望相比沒有變化,而且我們的能見度在過去幾週有所改善。
From a volume perspective, we are assuming 31 million to 32 million EyeQ shipments and 175,000 to 195,000 SuperVision shipments in 2024.
從銷量角度來看,我們預計 2024 年 EyeQ 出貨量為 3,100 萬至 3,200 萬台,SuperVision 出貨量為 175,000 至 195,000 台。
We expect the cadence of EyeQs assuming the midpoint of the guidance to be around $3.4 million in Q1, an increase of at least 100% in Q2 versus Q1, and then the balance of unit shipments in the second half of the year.
我們預期 EyeQs 的節奏假設第一季指導中位數約為 340 萬美元,第二季則較第一季成長 100%,然後下半年單位出貨量平衡。
We believe that this cadence, based on our analysis and discussions with customers, should result in a vast majority of excess on the inventory to be cleared by the middle of 2024.
我們認為,根據我們的分析和與客戶的討論,這種節奏應該會導致絕大多數過剩庫存在 2024 年中期之前被清理。
We expect average system price to increase in 2024 as compared to 2023 due to an increase of SuperVision as a percentage of total revenue.
由於 SuperVision 佔總收入的百分比增加,我們預計 2024 年的平均係統價格將比 2023 年上漲。
In terms of gross margin, we look at it on a product by product basis.
就毛利率而言,我們是按產品來看。
On the ADAS side, we expect a slight down tick in growth margin this year for two reasons.
在 ADAS 方面,我們預計今年的成長率將略有下降,原因有二。
One, as you know, the cost of EyeQ chips from our supplier went up at the beginning of 2023.
第一,如您所知,我們供應商的 EyeQ 晶片的成本在 2023 年初上漲。
We passed that along to our customers; however, there were a decent number of units in 2023 where we generated revenue at 2023 prices but used cheaper chips in 2022 costs.
我們將這一點傳遞給了我們的客戶;然而,2023 年有相當多的單位我們以 2023 年的價格產生收入,但在 2022 年的成本中使用了更便宜的晶片。
That's a minor headwind this year.
這是今年的一個小阻力。
We are also assuming some continued normalization of production mix after a very rich mix during the supply chain crisis.
我們也假設,在供應鏈危機期間生產組合非常豐富之後,生產組合將繼續正常化。
We expect these two headwinds to be partially offset by higher cloud enhanced ADAS volume and REM recurring revenue.
我們預計這兩個不利因素將被更高的雲端增強型 ADAS 銷售量和 REM 經常性收入所部分抵銷。
Regarding SuperVision, the optimized domain controller is now in production.
關於SuperVision,優化的網域控制器現已投入生產。
This comes at a meaningfully lower cost, and we are sharing a portion of that with our customers.
這樣做的成本顯著降低,我們將與客戶分享其中的一部分。
ASP will be down a bit compared to last year, but we expect gross margin to be up meaningfully to low 40% as of Q2 2024 as compared to low- to mid-30% in 2023.
與去年相比,平均售價將略有下降,但我們預計,到 2024 年第二季度,毛利率將大幅上升至 40%,而 2023 年將達到 30% 的中低水平。
In addition, we would expect some level of software licensing revenue to begin making an impact in Q4 of this year once the ZEEKR free trials are over.
此外,我們預計,一旦 ZEEKR 免費試用結束,一定程度的軟體授權收入將在今年第四季開始產生影響。
Any consumer that chooses to pay for the SuperVision-based feature after the free trial will drive incremental revenue and profit for Mobileye.
任何在免費試用後選擇付費購買基於 SuperVision 的功能的消費者都將為 Mobileye 帶來增量收入和利潤。
With respect to operating expenses, we are assuming 20% increase over the final 2023 number on an adjusted basis, excluding amortization of intangible asset and stock-based compensation.
關於營運費用,我們假設調整後的 2023 年最終數字較 2023 年增加 20%,不包括無形資產攤提和股票薪酬。
The OpEx bears a bit more discussion.
營運支出值得更多討論。
Our forecast for 2024 is unchanged from what we projected several months ago and not too far above our original forecast for 2023.
我們對 2024 年的預測與幾個月前的預測相比沒有變化,並且比我們最初對 2023 年的預測高出不遠。
Much of the lower cost in 2023 related to more transitory things like foreign exchange and delayed moving to our new campus, good news on some engineering reimbursement and reimbursement of certain payroll costs for employees on military reserves.
2023 年成本下降很大程度上與外匯等暫時性因素有關,以及推遲搬遷到新園區、一些工程報銷和軍事預備役員工某些工資成本報銷的好消息。
But some of it is structural.
但其中一些是結構性的。
Certain adjustment to the way we collaborate with OEMs, including ASP, means that SuperVision and Chauffeur programs can scale more efficiently than we originally envisioned.
我們與原始設備製造商(包括 ASP)合作方式的某些調整意味著 SuperVision 和 Chauffeur 計劃可以比我們最初設想的更有效地擴展。
The refinement of our mobility-as-a-service strategy to focus on supplying the self-driving system leads to structurally lower costs, but we don't believe a reduction in the opportunity.
我們對行動即服務策略的完善,專注於提供自動駕駛系統,可以從結構上降低成本,但我們不認為機會會減少。
Bottom line is that we do believe our operating expenses in the near and long term should be structurally lower than we expected as of a year ago.
最重要的是,我們確實相信我們近期和長期的營運支出在結構上應該低於我們一年前的預期。
We continue to believe that OpEx percentage growth in 2025 and beyond should be significantly lower than in 2024.
我們仍認為 2025 年及以後的營運支出百分比成長應顯著低於 2024 年。
Lastly, in terms of tax rates, we are assuming a non-GAAP effective tax rate of between 15% and 17% for 2024 in comparison to 11% in 2023.
最後,就稅率而言,我們假設 2024 年非 GAAP 有效稅率在 15% 至 17% 之間,而 2023 年為 11%。
Thank you and we will now take your questions.
謝謝您,我們現在將回答您的問題。
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Thank you, Moran. [Kat] if you could compile the Q&A queue, please analysts if you could limit your questions to one main question and one follow-up.
謝謝你,莫蘭。 [Kat] 如果您可以編制問答隊列,請分析師是否可以將您的問題限制為一個主要問題和一個後續問題。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Mark Delaney, Goldman Sachs.
(操作員指示)Mark Delaney,高盛。
Mark Delaney - Analyst
Mark Delaney - Analyst
Yes, good morning and thanks very much for taking the question.
是的,早上好,非常感謝您提出問題。
I was hoping to start with an update on the engagements with the OEMs with some of your more advanced solutions like SuperVision and Chauffeur.
我希望先介紹一下與 OEM 廠商合作的最新情況,以及你們的一些更先進的解決方案,例如 SuperVision 和 Chauffeur。
I think as of the 3Q call, you said you were either booked or in advanced discussions with 10 OEMs.
我想在第三季的電話會議上,您說您已經與 10 家 OEM 進行了預訂或進行了高級討論。
I think, Amnon, you said today that's now at 11, and then I believe there's another four OEMs where there were more preliminary discussions underway.
我想,Amnon,您今天說過現在是 11 點,然後我相信還有另外四家 OEM 正在進行更多初步討論。
Can you give any more color on how those discussions are going, your general sense of progress?
您能否進一步說明這些討論的進展以及您對進展的整體感覺?
And were any OEMs maybe deciding to go another direction?
是否有任何 OEM 可能決定走另一個方向?
Or do you still feel like you're well positioned with that set of customers?
或者您仍然覺得自己在這群客戶中處於有利地位嗎?
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Well, yes, SV and Chauffeur are complex systems.
嗯,是的,SV 和 Chauffeur 是複雜的系統。
So early adopters, they need a lengthy due diligence process.
所以早期採用者,他們需要一個漫長的盡職調查過程。
For example, before winning SuperVision on Porsche, we underwent thousands of miles of public road rides in Europe and in the US with a due diligence that took almost a year.
例如,在保時捷贏得 SuperVision 之前,我們在歐洲和美國進行了數千英里的公共道路騎行,並進行了近一年的盡職調查。
But now we are facing the effects of, I would call this the law of innovation of diffusion, which means that more OEMs buy into SuperVision and Chauffeur, the shorter their due diligence phase.
但現在我們面臨著我稱之為擴散創新法則的影響,這意味著越多的 OEM 購買 SuperVision 和 Chauffeur,他們的盡職調查階段就越短。
So after winning the big western OEM, I believe that due diligence phase is getting much shorter.
因此,在贏得西方大型OEM之後,我相信盡職調查階段會變得越來越短。
And we foresee a number of design wins, both in western and in China during 2024.
我們預計 2024 年將在西方和中國獲得多項設計勝利。
And I believe that the announcement of those design wins would be in the second half of the year.
我相信這些設計獲勝的消息將在今年下半年公佈。
Mark Delaney - Analyst
Mark Delaney - Analyst
That's helpful.
這很有幫助。
One of the things I was hoping for an update on was the DXP platform.
我希望更新的內容之一是 DXP 平台。
It was a big part of your speech and presentation at CES this year.
這是您今年 CES 演講和演示的重要組成部分。
I imagine you met with a number of current and potential customers at CES.
我想您在 CES 上會見了許多現有和潛在的客戶。
Maybe you can share more around how impactful DXP is and the receptivity of auto OEMs to DXP?
也許您可以更多地分享 DXP 的影響力以及汽車 OEM 廠商對 DXP 的接受程度?
And maybe touch a little bit on how DXP is different from EyeQ Kit?
或許可以稍微了解一下 DXP 與 EyeQ Kit 有何不同?
Thank you.
謝謝。
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
I think that the DXP really solves the problem of how the OEM can own the driving experience in a very efficient manner.
我認為DXP真正解決了OEM如何以非常有效率的方式擁有駕駛體驗的問題。
So previously before DXP, OEMs would come to us and say, look, we want to take your two EyeQ 6 chips, add another microprocessor, a strong microprocessor that would cost hundreds of dollars and will write our driving policy code on that microprocessor.
因此,在DXP 之前,原始設備製造商(OEM) 會來找我們說,看,我們想採用你們的兩個EyeQ 6 晶片,添加另一個微處理器,一個強大的微處理器,需要花費數百美元,並將在該微處理器上編寫我們的駕駛策略代碼。
Or they would come and say that writing our code on your EyeQ 6 chip would create all sorts of clashes because our code and your code, fighting on resources, so we prefer to put it on a separate chip.
或者他們會過來說,在您的 EyeQ 6 晶片上編寫我們的程式碼會產生各種衝突,因為我們的程式碼和您的程式碼會爭奪資源,所以我們更願意將其放在單獨的晶片上。
Now this means that the cost of the system is higher and the economical scalability is very, very important.
現在這意味著系統的成本更高,經濟的可擴展性非常非常重要。
With DXP, they do not need to add any additional microprocessor.
借助 DXP,他們無需添加任何額外的微處理器。
They do not need to write code on our EyeQ 6 chip.
他們不需要在我們的 EyeQ 6 晶片上編寫程式碼。
They write code on the MCU, and they write high-level code, and they use our infrastructure for writing their driving policy.
他們在 MCU 上編寫程式碼,編寫高級程式碼,並使用我們的基礎設施來編寫他們的駕駛策略。
So, it does two things, it reduces the bill of materials of the system because you don't need to add another chip and it allows Mobileye to scale much faster because all the code written on the EyeQ 6 chip is more or less the same for all the platforms.
因此,它做了兩件事,它減少了系統的材料清單,因為您不需要添加另一個晶片,而且它允許Mobileye 更快地擴展,因為EyeQ 6 晶片上編寫的所有程式碼或多或少都是相同的適用於所有平台。
All the differences are in the MCU.
所有差異都在 MCU 中。
Maybe Nimrod wants to add something.
也許寧羅德想補充一些東西。
Nimrod Nehushtan - Senior Vice President Business Development and Strategy, Co-Manager REM
Nimrod Nehushtan - Senior Vice President Business Development and Strategy, Co-Manager REM
If I may add, we had the opportunity during CES to present this concept to multiple OEMs in dozens of meetings and the reception was very compelling in the sense that although OEMs now have more focus on pragmatic considerations like cost, performance, and time to market, this does not come at the expense of owning the user experience and being able to influence and craft their own kind of user experience for their customer base.
如果我可以補充一點,我們有機會在CES 期間在數十次會議上向多個OEM 廠商展示這一概念,並且反響非常引人注目,因為儘管OEM 現在更加關注成本、性能和上市時間等務實考慮因素,這並不以犧牲擁有用戶體驗以及能夠影響和為其客戶群打造自己的用戶體驗為代價。
And what's really missing in industry to find the sweet spot in between the best performance cost in time to market solution and full flexibility in crafting a unique user experience.
業界真正缺少的是在上市時間解決方案的最佳性能成本和打造獨特用戶體驗的充分靈活性之間找到最佳平衡點。
And this is where DXP comes in and it is really perceived as a driving operating system by OEMs, which is kind of simplifying the task for OEMs who are now interested in offering new driving experiences in this new generation of driver assist and autonomous driving products.
這就是DXP 的用武之地,它確實被OEM 視為駕駛操作系統,這在某種程度上簡化了OEM 的任務,他們現在有興趣在新一代駕駛員輔助和自動駕駛產品中提供新的駕駛體驗。
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Thank you.
謝謝。
Next question, please.
請下一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Emmanuel Rosner, Deutsche Bank.
伊曼紐‧羅斯納,德意志銀行。
Emmanuel Rosner - Analyst
Emmanuel Rosner - Analyst
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
My first question is around the chip destocking situation that you flagged a few weeks or so ago.
我的第一個問題是關於您幾週前提出的晶片去庫存情況。
Can you maybe just go back over how you became aware of it?
你能回顧一下你是如何意識到這一點的嗎?
How do you get confidence around the magnitude of the issue and the timing of it being resolved in line with what you reiterated today, please?
請問您如何根據您今天重申的內容對問題的嚴重程度以及解決問題的時間充滿信心?
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
I think, Moran?
我想,莫蘭?
Moran Rojansky - CFO
Moran Rojansky - CFO
Yes.
是的。
So, as I mentioned in the script, so the inventory buildup issue started actually three years ago, in the mid-COVID period when global production went down dramatically, and the industry was all about the desire to secure production and to go after every chip.
因此,正如我在腳本中提到的,庫存累積問題實際上始於三年前,當時是新冠疫情中期,全球產量急劇下降,整個行業都渴望確保生產並追求每一個晶片。
That was also the atmosphere for us with the suppliers and also from the sense of urgency that we got from our customers.
這也是我們與供應商的氛圍,也是我們從客戶那裡得到的迫切感。
That of course, we believe, led to some stocking, billing activity.
我們相信,這當然導致了一些庫存和計費活動。
In addition, with related to your question, in 2022 and 2023, actually the ordering process changed.
另外,與你的問題相關,在2022年和2023年,實際上訂購流程發生了變化。
So, we needed to make full year commitment to our chief supplier.
因此,我們需要對我們的主要供應商做出全年承諾。
So, we asked our customers to do the same and make full year commitment for this year in both 2022 and 2023, which led to less ability from their side to adjust purchases to demand as they did it pre-COVID period.
因此,我們要求客戶也這樣做,並在 2022 年和 2023 年做出全年承諾,這導致他們根據需求調整採購的能力不如新冠疫情之前。
So, adjusting again the quantities was impossible actually in 2023.
因此,到2023年再次調整數量實際上是不可能的。
In 2023, we know the supply chain crisis largely was over, but it was still unclear when will global production get back to normal to pre-COVID levels, which might be the reason that the Tier 1s kept holding this inventory through the year.
2023年,我們知道供應鏈危機已基本結束,但仍不清楚全球產量何時能恢復到疫情前的正常水平,這可能是一級供應商全年保持庫存的原因。
They were also, again, obligated with commitments, but they held it through the year and we weren't informed of such quantity.
他們也有義務履行承諾,但他們全年都持有這些承諾,我們沒有被告知這樣的數量。
Over the course of 2023, we believe that our core customers underperformed in terms of production for our top customers, which make the majority of our ADAS customers, they grew 4% versus the overall market growing of 9%.
在 2023 年期間,我們認為我們的核心客戶在我們的頂級客戶(我們的大多數 ADAS 客戶)的生產方面表現不佳,他們增長了 4%,而整體市場增長了 9%。
And then towards the end of the year, when the commitments were ending, and now in 2024 we got back to normal in terms of orders, so we have quarterly orders and customers can adjust to the quarterly, we think that's the reason it came up towards the end of 2023 and not at the beginning of the year or some other time during this period.
然後到了年底,當承諾結束時,現在到了 2024 年,我們的訂單量恢復正常,所以我們有季度訂單,客戶可以調整到季度訂單,我們認為這就是它出現的原因到2023 年底,而不是年初或在此期間的其他時間。
Emmanuel Rosner - Analyst
Emmanuel Rosner - Analyst
Understood.
明白了。
That is helpful.
這很有幫助。
And then just a quick one on SuperVision.
然後簡單介紹一下 SuperVision。
I guess as part of this update a few weeks or so ago, you also sort of tweaked down expectations for SuperVision units in 2024.
我猜想,作為幾週前更新的一部分,你們也降低了對 2024 年 SuperVision 設備的預期。
I think part of it was maybe an exercise in de-risking around like timing launches.
我認為其中一部分可能是為了降低風險,例如發佈時機。
Could you provide us sort of similar type of de-risking around what the trajectory looks like beyond 2024?
您能否為我們提供類似類型的去風險措施,以了解 2024 年後的發展軌跡?
Obviously, launches have generally sort of happened a little bit later than expected, at CES about a year or so ago.
顯然,產品發布通常比預期晚一些,大約一年前在 CES 上發布。
So just want to make sure that investor expectations are properly calibrated for what's beyond 2024 in the ramp-up initially when you only have sort of a few initial customers.
因此,我只想確保在最初只有少數初始客戶的情況下,投資者的預期能夠針對 2024 年之後的情況進行適當調整。
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
At the beginning of 2023, we had a small number of car models and it's difficult to make accurate forecasts.
2023年初,我們的車型數量較少,很難做出準確的預測。
Today, we have 30 car models, and we can improve our forecasts.
今天,我們有 30 種車型,我們可以改進我們的預測。
For 2023, in production we had two car models in China to base our forecast and all what we had to rely on was OEM numbers which turned out to be optimistic.
對於 2023 年,我們在中國有兩款正在生產的車型作為我們預測的基礎,我們所依賴的只是 OEM 數據,事實證明這是樂觀的。
Now we know that most of the production of SuperVision is coming out in 2026.
現在我們知道《SuperVision》的大部分作品將於 2026 年上映。
By 2025, we'll have between 9 to 11 models of SuperVision.
到 2025 年,我們將擁有 9 到 11 年 SuperVision。
Now the five models from the Geely Group, two from ZEEKR, one from Smart, one from Polestar, one from Volvo, and then between four to six car models from the FAW.
現在吉利集團的五款車型,ZEEKR的兩款,Smart的一款,Polestar的一款,Volvo的一款,然後是一汽的四到六款車型。
So that's the production in 2024 and 2025.
這就是 2024 年和 2025 年的產量。
And then in 2026, we have Porsche, and we have the big western OEM with 17 car models, and we have Mahindra.
然後到 2026 年,我們擁有保時捷,我們擁有擁有 17 款車型的西方大型 OEM,我們還有 Mahindra。
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
And just one follow up from me, this is Dan.
我的一個後續行動是丹。
In terms of calibration, for the leading edge analysts that have calibrated their models and estimates to the tracking document that we provided at CES, as well as their own updated analysis, these estimates look reasonable and achievable to us.
在校準方面,對於根據我們在 CES 上提供的追蹤文件以及他們自己的更新分析來校準模型和估計的前沿分析師來說,這些估計對我們來說看起來是合理且可實現的。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Next question.
下一個問題。
Emmanuel Rosner - Analyst
Emmanuel Rosner - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Operator
Operator
Dan Levy, Barclays.
丹·利維,巴克萊銀行。
Dan Levy - Analyst
Dan Levy - Analyst
Hi.
你好。
Good afternoon to you.
你下午好。
Thank you for taking questions.
感謝您提出問題。
I wanted to start with just tying to your comments about the engagements with 11 OEMs, I think broadly there is this narrative out there that, like you said, automakers do want to own technology, but the challenge is it's been very difficult to scale and there's a notable example of a North American automaker that is pulling back on some of their more advanced ADAS plans given some struggles there.
我想先談談您對與 11 家原始設備製造商合作的評論,我認為廣泛存在這樣一種說法,正如您所說,汽車製造商確實希望擁有技術,但挑戰在於規模化和規模化非常困難有一個值得注意的例子,一家北美汽車製造商由於在該地區遇到了一些困難,正在撤回一些更先進的ADAS 計劃。
So, to what extent are you seeing more engagement with automakers that despite the desire to own the technology really are coming to the realization that they have no choice but to come to you because you are the easiest and fastest way to scale?
那麼,您在多大程度上看到了與汽車製造商的更多接觸,儘管他們渴望擁有這項技術,但實際上他們已經意識到他們別無選擇,只能來找您,因為您是最簡單、最快的擴充方式?
To what extent are you seeing automakers come around to you?
您在多大程度上看到汽車製造商向您求助?
Nimrod Nehushtan - Senior Vice President Business Development and Strategy, Co-Manager REM
Nimrod Nehushtan - Senior Vice President Business Development and Strategy, Co-Manager REM
Yes, I'll take it.
是的,我會接受的。
So I think what we are seeing is this domino effect that in one sense it is becoming a realization in the industry that the next few years are going to be very heavily influenced by OEM's ability to offer these products that offer hands-free driving, eyes-off driving, and it is going to become a growingly more important feature for consumers.
因此,我認為我們看到的是這種骨牌效應,從某種意義上說,業界正在意識到,未來幾年將受到 OEM 提供免持駕駛、眼睛功能產品的能力的嚴重影響。駕駛時,它將成為消費者越來越重要的功能。
And this is what gives rise to the sense of urgency amongst OEMs to create the shortest path they can for a high quality product.
這使得原始設備製造商迫切需要為高品質產品創造最短的路徑。
And maybe a few years ago, OEMs had the perception that they have some time to invest, and they can take the longer path to get there while still owning the technology stack.
也許幾年前,原始設備製造商認為他們有一些時間進行投資,他們可以走更長的路來實現這一目標,同時仍然擁有技術堆疊。
Now the clock is ticking for them, and they are looking for the kind of the best performance at the shortest time to market so that they can compete.
現在對他們來說時間已經不多了,他們正在尋找一種能在最短的時間內上市的最佳性能,以便他們能夠參與競爭。
And we already see this dynamic happening in China and it's growing outside of China already today.
我們已經看到這種動態正在中國發生,並且今天已經在中國以外的地方增長。
So we do see more and more traction from OEMs who were maybe in the past more bullish on owning the technology stack who have come to a realization that they need to at least find a parallel path inside their company to de-risk the activity towards the next generation of ADAS products.
因此,我們確實看到來自原始設備製造商的越來越多的關注,他們在過去可能更看好擁有技術堆棧,現在他們已經意識到,他們至少需要在公司內部找到一條平行的路徑,以降低面向未來的活動的風險。下一代 ADAS 產品。
So, a certain portion of our engagements are with OEMs who have invested significantly in the past in-house activities can say that.
因此,我們的一部分合作是與在過去的內部活動中投入大量資金的原始設備製造商進行的,可以這麼說。
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
I can say a lot of it that it's really a flywheel effect.
我可以說很多,這確實是飛輪效應。
A few years ago, the only reference to such a system was the Tesla Autopilot and FSD.
幾年前,此類系統的唯一參考是 Tesla Autopilot 和 FSD。
Now you have Chinese automakers with systems of a similar setup and those Chinese automakers are also -- some of the models are being exported to the West and those are mobilized systems.
現在,中國汽車製造商擁有類似設置的系統,而這些中國汽車製造商也有——其中一些車型正在出口到西方,而這些都是移動系統。
Now they know that Porsche and the big western OEM are also going to introduce these systems.
現在他們知道保時捷和西方大型原始設備製造商也將推出這些系統。
So, it creates a flywheel effect.
因此,它產生了飛輪效應。
And as an OEM, you need to cater to the rising competition in terms of intelligent driving.
作為 OEM,您需要迎合智慧駕駛方面日益激烈的競爭。
So, this creates more and more incentive to start working with Mobileye on these advanced products, whether instead of their in-house development or in parallel to their in-house development.
因此,這使得越來越多的人開始與 Mobileye 合作開發這些先進產品,無論是內部開發還是與內部開發並行。
Dan Levy - Analyst
Dan Levy - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thank you.
謝謝。
As a follow-up, somewhat related, maybe you could just provide us with an update on the competitive landscape in China?
作為有點相關的後續行動,也許您可以向我們提供有關中國競爭格局的最新資訊?
I appreciate that some of the earlier engagements you've had with SuperVision are based on China, but we also know that China is the market where there is right now the most rapid development cycle.
我很欣賞你們與 SuperVision 的一些早期合作是基於中國的,但我們也知道中國是目前發展週期最快的市場。
There are also data barriers within China.
中國內部也存在數據壁壘。
So, to what extent are you -- maybe you could talk about share trends or win rates in China.
那麼,您的水平如何——也許您可以談談中國的份額趨勢或贏率。
And to what extent are you as competitive in China as you are in the West?
你們在中國的競爭力與在西方的競爭力有多大?
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Okay, so actually it's going to be a lengthy answer, so bear with me.
好吧,實際上這將是一個很長的答案,所以請耐心等待。
It's really a complicated landscape.
這確實是一個複雜的景觀。
So, I'll start with West.
那麼,我將從西方開始。
With the western OEMs, we have about 90% share in eight out of the 10 biggest OEMs.
在西方整車廠中,我們在 10 家最大整車廠中的 8 家中擁有約 90% 的份額。
This is true not only today, but given all the design wins to date, this is true for the foreseeable future.
這不僅在今天如此,而且考慮到迄今為止所有的設計勝利,在可預見的未來也是如此。
Actually, given all the current design wins, our market share is growing.
事實上,考慮到當前所有的設計勝利,我們的市場份額正在增長。
Now in China, there are a number of OEMs where we have above 90% market share, including some local OEMs like Chery.
現在在中國,有許多整車廠我們的市佔率在90%以上,其中包括一些本土整車廠,像是奇瑞。
There are also some local OEMs where we have around 30%, and some which we do not have a relationship yet.
還有一些本地整車廠我們佔了30%左右,有些我們還沒有合作關係。
So, for example, at BYD, we have 30% market share, and with Changan, we have zero.
例如,在比亞迪,我們擁有 30% 的市場份額,而在長安,我們的市場份額為零。
So Chinese OEMs growth is faster than our market share growth.
所以中國整車廠的成長速度快於我們市場佔有率的成長速度。
BYD and Changan are growing fast.
比亞迪和長安發展迅速。
Now in terms of competition, there's the low-end and high-end.
現在就競爭而言,有低端和高端。
At the low-end ADAS, we have some supplier competing at the very low-end solutions, very low cost, very low-end solutions.
在低端ADAS方面,我們有一些供應商在非常低端的解決方案、非常低成本、非常低端的解決方案上競爭。
And at the high-end, we have the in-house development of OEMs.
在高端領域,我們擁有 OEM 的內部開發。
So, at the low end, competing systems suffer from a large performance gap on the very basic features like autonomous emergency braking, for example.
因此,在低端市場,競爭系統在自動緊急煞車等非常基本的功能上存在巨大的性能差距。
The performance will never pass any Western regulator.
這種表現永遠不會透過任何西方監管機構。
For them to catch up, they'll need to have more expensive system which will reduce their competitive offering.
為了迎頭趕上,他們需要擁有更昂貴的系統,這會降低他們的產品競爭力。
Moreover, we are adding REM to the low-end ADAS to provide a cloud-enhanced system and Chery just announced that in two months, car models with Mobileye Cloud Enhanced solution will be launched.
此外,我們正在將REM添加到低端ADAS中,以提供雲端增強系統,奇瑞剛剛宣布,兩個月後將推出採用Mobileye雲端增強解決方案的車型。
This will add more pressure on our competitors by creating a moving target for single camera ADAS.
透過為單相機 ADAS 創建移動目標,這將為我們的競爭對手增加更多壓力。
For the high-end systems, those are developed in-house by some OEMs, there are still significant proof points to pass, I'll say along three axis.
對於高端系統,這些系統是由一些原始設備製造商內部開發的,仍然有重要的證據點需要通過,我會說沿著三個軸。
There's geographic scalability, performance scalability, and economic scalability.
具有地理可擴展性、性能可擴展性和經濟可擴展性。
So geographic-wise, there is this move from highway to urban.
從地理角度來看,正在從高速公路轉移到城市。
This is a big challenge because high definition maps provided by map makers are done manually, do not scale too urban.
這是一個很大的挑戰,因為地圖製作者提供的高清地圖是手動完成的,不會縮放得太城市化。
Mobileye has REM.
Mobileye 有 REM。
This is a big advantage.
這是一個很大的優勢。
Also, geographic-wise, OEMs want to export systems outside of China and meet regulation.
此外,從地理角度來看,原始設備製造商希望將系統出口到中國境外並滿足監管要求。
Mobileye has an advantage there.
Mobileye 在這方面有優勢。
Performance wise, the goal is to move from eyes on to eyes off.
就性能而言,目標是從注視轉變為閉目。
This is a significant step-up in performance and focus on safety.
這是性能和安全性方面的重大提升。
Mobileye has an advantage there.
Mobileye 在這方面有優勢。
Economical wise, in-house systems are more expensive and require more sensors to reach a reasonable performance level.
從經濟角度來看,內部系統更昂貴,並且需要更多感測器才能達到合理的性能水準。
Mobileye has an advantage there.
Mobileye 在這方面有優勢。
So, Chinese, I think the Chinese market is the most interesting and dynamic market to date.
所以,中國人,我認為中國市場是迄今為止最有趣、最有活力的市場。
And I think we're doing well there, and our market share will grow but the growth of the market is faster than our growth of the market share and I hope we'll catch up soon.
我認為我們在那裡做得很好,我們的市場份額將會成長,但市場的成長速度快於我們市場佔有率的成長,我希望我們很快就能趕上。
Dan Levy - Analyst
Dan Levy - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Thank you, Dan.
謝謝你,丹。
Next question, please.
請下一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Itay Michaeli, Citi.
伊泰‧米凱利,花旗銀行。
Itay Michaeli - Analyst
Itay Michaeli - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thanks, everybody.
謝謝大家。
Good afternoon.
午安.
Just two quick questions for me on the pipeline.
關於管道,我只想問兩個簡單的問題。
First, hoping you can kind of dimension what portion of the pipeline is both looking at SuperVision and Chauffeur combined, just given the momentum you've seen with Chauffeur recently?
首先,考慮到您最近看到的 Chauffeur 的勢頭,希望您能夠確定 SuperVision 和 Chauffeur 結合起來的管道的哪一部分?
And second question, since the big announcement at CES, have you seen an increase in activity and conversations, including maybe with the second wave OEMs you described in the last earnings call?
第二個問題,自從 CES 上發布重大消息以來,您是否看到活動和對話有所增加,可能包括您在上次財報電話會議中描述的第二波 OEM 廠商?
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Yes, Nimrod will take it.
是的,寧錄會接受它。
Nimrod Nehushtan - Senior Vice President Business Development and Strategy, Co-Manager REM
Nimrod Nehushtan - Senior Vice President Business Development and Strategy, Co-Manager REM
Yes.
是的。
So, regarding the first question, it depends.
所以,關於第一個問題,這要看情況。
In some of the engagements we have, we have parallel engagements for both SuperVision and Chauffeur with the same OEM.
在我們的一些合作中,我們與同一 OEM 進行了 SuperVision 和 Chauffeur 的並行合作。
This is in the case where the OEMs are interested in a few car models with which maybe they want to have different offerings for different segments in the market, different price levels of cars.
在這種情況下,原始設備製造商對幾種車型感興趣,他們可能希望為市場的不同細分市場、不同價格水平的汽車提供不同的產品。
On the other hand, there are some OEMs who might be more interested in specific product offering and maybe to start from Chauffeur or to focus on hands-off for their cars because of whatever considerations they have.
另一方面,有些 OEM 可能對特定產品更感興趣,可能會從 Chauffeur 開始,或出於任何考慮而專注於他們的汽車的「放手」。
So, we can say we have a mixed bag of engagements in general.
因此,我們可以說我們的業務總體上是五花八門的。
We see a good mixture of both Chauffeur and SuperVision in our pipeline engagement.
我們在管道參與中看到了 Chauffeur 和 SuperVision 的良好結合。
And I think regarding -- what was your second question, please?
我想關於──你的第二個問題是什麼?
You can just repeat?
你可以重複一下嗎?
Itay Michaeli - Analyst
Itay Michaeli - Analyst
Just since CES, any increase in activity and engagement with the second wave?
自 CES 以來,第二波的活動和參與度有增加嗎?
Nimrod Nehushtan - Senior Vice President Business Development and Strategy, Co-Manager REM
Nimrod Nehushtan - Senior Vice President Business Development and Strategy, Co-Manager REM
Yes.
是的。
So I think one of the interesting outcomes of CES is that we have had just over a couple of weeks after CES, we already have, I think, three engagements within our pipeline that specifically want to focus on evaluating DXP hands on, to actually start working technically on DXP, to start experimenting with it, to start feeling the tools, seeing how they can influence the driving experience.
因此,我認為 CES 的一個有趣的成果是,我們在 CES 結束後才幾週多,我認為我們的管道中已經有了三項工作,特別是想要專注於親自評估 DXP,以真正開始在DXP上進行技術工作,開始嘗試它,開始感受這些工具,看看它們如何影響駕駛體驗。
And this is just after a couple of weeks since we have announced it for the first time.
這距離我們首次宣布這項消息只過了幾週。
So, it is a very promising start to this promotion process that we are executing.
因此,對於我們正在執行的促銷流程來說,這是一個非常有希望的開始。
Itay Michaeli - Analyst
Itay Michaeli - Analyst
Perfect.
完美的。
That's very helpful.
這非常有幫助。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Thanks, Itay.
謝謝,伊泰。
Next question, please.
請下一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Joe Spak, UBS.
喬·斯帕克,瑞銀集團。
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Thanks everyone.
感謝大家。
You talked a lot about the progress on the SuperVision program wins.
您談到了 SuperVision 計劃獲勝的進展。
I was wondering if you could shed a little bit of light on how -- when you have those conversations with customers, how they think about implementation on those programs or take rates?
我想知道您是否可以透露一下當您與客戶進行這些對話時,他們如何考慮這些計劃的實施或收取費用?
Like, are they convinced they can charge for these features or -- Amnon, you mentioned that as you sort of get to more higher end features like Chauffeur where you get time back, maybe do we need features like that to really see significantly higher levels of adoption and willingness to pay?
例如,他們是否確信他們可以對這些功能收費,或者——Amnon,你提到當你獲得更高端的功能,比如 Chauffeur,你可以節省時間,也許我們需要這樣的功能才能真正看到更高的水平採用和支付意願?
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
In the West we have a reference and that's the cost of Tesla FSD.
在西方,我們有一個參考,就是特斯拉 FSD 的成本。
This is why it's so important to have a very economical, very low cost system to allow the car maker flexibility in pricing.
這就是為什麼擁有一個非常經濟、成本非常低的系統如此重要,以允許汽車製造商靈活定價。
Now, Mobileye system with the sensors is less than $2,000.
現在,帶有感測器的 Mobileye 系統售價不到 2,000 美元。
So, this gives the OEM lots of flexibility in pricing considering that the Tesla FSD is $12,000 to the end customers.
因此,考慮到特斯拉 FSD 對最終客戶的售價為 12,000 美元,這為 OEM 提供了很大的定價彈性。
So, most of our engagements, the system is a standard fit.
因此,在我們的大多數活動中,該系統都是標準配置。
So, it's not with a take rate calculation, but it comes on every and every car.
因此,這不是採用率計算,而是每輛車都有。
So, this is the situation right now.
所以,現在的情況就是這樣。
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
And then just the second one, you mentioned, just with respect to the inventory bill that occurred, you mentioned that you're implementing some procedures to put in place to make sure you keep better track of sell-through.
然後,您提到的第二個問題,就發生的庫存帳單而言,您提到您正在實施一些程序以確保更好地追蹤銷售情況。
Can you talk a little bit more about what you're doing there or is this really just -- you mentioned also that over the past couple years you went to full year commitment.
您能否多談談您在那裡所做的事情,或者這真的只是 - 您還提到在過去幾年中您進行了全年承諾。
So, have you sort of pulled back on full year commitments?
那麼,您是否取消了全年承諾?
Is that part of that procedure?
這是該程式的一部分嗎?
Moran Rojansky - CFO
Moran Rojansky - CFO
Yes.
是的。
So, I'll take it.
所以,我會接受它。
So first of all, of course, I must say that we never experienced the situation before as our customers have done all through the 10 plus years period a very good job in ordering the demand.
當然,首先我必須說,我們以前從未經歷過這種情況,因為我們的客戶在十多年的時間裡在訂購需求方面做得非常好。
Given the recent history and the inventory issue, of course we are taking action in several fronts to add capabilities to monitoring of shipment versus demand.
鑑於最近的歷史和庫存問題,我們當然正在多個方面採取行動,以增加監控發貨與需求的能力。
So, the first thing that you mentioned, yes, the order process is now back to normal.
所以,你提到的第一件事是,訂單流程現在已經恢復正常。
So, commitment for 12 months is no longer relevant.
因此,12 個月的承諾不再適用。
So, the commitment is only a quarter ahead.
因此,承諾只提前了四分之一。
So, we do get forecast, 12 month forecast, but that's just a forecast.
所以,我們確實得到了 12 個月的預測,但這只是一個預測。
It's not a commitment.
這不是一個承諾。
So, the same thing with our suppliers.
所以,我們的供應商也是如此。
So again, the industry and what we've been saying, that the 12 month commitment is no longer relevant in 2024 and we don't expect it to be relevant also in the future as it was specific to COVID.
因此,業界和我們一直在說的,12 個月的承諾在 2024 年不再適用,我們預計它在未來也不會適用,因為它是針對新冠疫情的。
We will also try to receive some input from our customers on inventory level, but it's not that something that we have visibility to, it's important to mention.
我們也將嘗試從客戶那裡獲得一些關於庫存水準的意見,但這並不是我們能看到的,但值得一提的是。
In terms of actions, we're taking internally.
在行動方面,我們正在內部採取行動。
So, we have established a regular process to match shipments to detailed vehicle production, both looking backwards and forward.
因此,我們建立了一個常規流程,將發貨與詳細的車輛生產相匹配,無論是回顧過去還是展望未來。
We are putting more focus on market-based forecast that incorporate the adoption rate and OEM share trends.
我們更加關注基於市場的預測,其中包括採用率和 OEM 份額趨勢。
We always have used and updated the forecast and compared to the market, but we will now put more weight on this as another input of the customer provided forecast.
我們始終使用和更新預測並與市場進行比較,但現在我們將更加重視這一點,作為客戶提供的預測的另一個輸入。
We will also consider working with external vendors to build some statistical models forecast to incorporate macro level data and additional headcount to support this.
我們還將考慮與外部供應商合作建立一些統計模型預測,以納入宏觀層面的數據和額外的人員數量來支持這一點。
That's the steps that we are taking.
這就是我們正在採取的步驟。
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Moran Rojansky - CFO
Moran Rojansky - CFO
Another clarification that Dan mentioned, it wasn't clear in my script.
丹提到的另一個澄清,在我的劇本中並不清楚。
So, the full guidance for 2024 hasn't changed from January 4th.
因此,2024 年的完整指導方針自 1 月 4 日起沒有變更。
So, for EyeQ we are anticipating 31 million to 33 million units of EyeQ shipment.
因此,對於 EyeQ,我們預計 EyeQ 的出貨量為 3,100 萬至 3,300 萬台。
A clarification since the line was down a bit.
由於線路下降了一點,需要澄清。
Thanks.
謝謝。
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Thank you, Moran.
謝謝你,莫蘭。
Next question, please.
請下一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Vijay Rakesh, Mizuho Securities.
維傑‧拉克什 (Vijay Rakesh),瑞穗證券。
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Just a quick question on the company landscape again.
再次簡單問一下公司的狀況。
I think and obviously Mobileye is doing very well in the Western hemisphere, I think, especially with CARIAD gone and GM Cruise having problems as well.
我認為,很明顯,Mobileye 在西半球做得很好,尤其是在 CARIAD 消失、通用汽車 Cruise 也遇到問題的情況下。
But in China, are you seeing -- there's been some concerns on potentially NVIDIA gaining share.
但在中國,人們對 NVIDIA 可能獲得的市場份額有些擔憂。
Any thoughts on that?
對此有什麼想法嗎?
What's driving that?
是什麼推動了這一點?
Is that any price performance or just OEMs trying to diversify?
這是性價比還是只是 OEM 試圖多元化?
Can you talk to what you're seeing there?
你能談談你在那裡看到的嗎?
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
I think in China, I mentioned the in-house development in China.
我想在中國,我提到了中國的內部開發。
Those systems, they have significant proof points to still undergo.
這些系統有重要的證據需要繼續進行。
And I said about geographic scalability, economic scalability, performance scalability.
我談到了地理可擴展性、經濟可擴展性、效能可擴展性。
On the economical side these systems are way more expensive than our system.
從經濟角度來看,這些系統比我們的系統貴得多。
For example, on NIO they have four Orin chips.
例如,蔚來汽車有四個 Orin 晶片。
Orin is NVIDIA owned and is a very expensive chip and they have four of them and they have ladders for reaching and the performance level is not even reaching the performance level of SuperVision.
Orin 是 NVIDIA 旗下的晶片,是非常昂貴的晶片,他們有四個晶片,而且有階梯,性能水平甚至達不到 SuperVision 的性能水平。
This is on the economical side.
這是經濟方面的。
On the geographical side, the big game now is going from highway to urban.
在地理方面,現在的重大遊戲正在從高速公路轉向城市。
HD maps are not scaling too urban.
高清地圖的縮放比例較不都市化。
It's not economically scalable.
它在經濟上不具有可擴展性。
None of those in-house developments claim that they'll be using high definition maps in urban.
這些內部開發項目都沒有聲稱他們將在城市中使用高清地圖。
Some of them are claiming they'll go mapless.
他們中的一些人聲稱他們將沒有地圖。
Good luck for them.
祝他們好運。
Some of them say they'll only provide the commute feature where you record your normal commute, and you'll get performance only on that route.
他們中的一些人表示,他們只會提供通勤功能,您可以在其中記錄正常通勤,並且您只能在該路線上獲得表現。
Mobileye has REMs.
Mobileye 有 REM。
And also, they want to export outside of China.
而且,他們想出口到中國以外的地區。
There are all sorts of regulations that Mobileye is very good at.
Mobileye 非常擅長各種法規。
So that's also an advantage.
所以這也是一個優勢。
So geographic performance, you want to go to eyes-off.
所以地域表現,你想走到哪裡就眼睛過關。
This is the holy grail of all of this is an eyes-off system.
這是一個無眼系統的聖杯。
Their safety is paramount.
他們的安全至關重要。
You cannot just provide a system that you feel comfortable, but you can have all sorts of safety issues there because the driver is responsible.
你不能只提供一個讓你感覺舒服的系統,但你可能會遇到各種各樣的安全問題,因為司機要負責。
In an eyes-off system, there are no discounts.
在無視系統中,沒有折扣。
You have to be perfect.
你必須完美。
This also adds an advantage to Mobileye.
這也為Mobileye增加了一個優勢。
So I think China is very dynamic which I think is a very good thing, competitive-wise and moving forward very fast with the technology.
所以我認為中國非常有活力,這是一件非常好的事情,從競爭角度來看,而且技術進步非常快。
We like that very much.
我們非常喜歡這一點。
And I think the OEMs that are doing in-house development now are keeping all their options open.
我認為現在正在進行內部開發的原始設備製造商正在保留所有選項。
So, for example, ZEEKR, they have an in-house development and they're working also with Mobileye.
例如,ZEEKR,他們有內部開發,也與 Mobileye 合作。
We have long visibility to the continuation of work with ZEEKR.
我們對與 ZEEKR 的持續合作有著長期的預見性。
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
And just another question on SuperVision.
還有一個關於 SuperVision 的問題。
Obviously, there is good ramp there, but as you look out through '25, '26, can you talk to what kind of conservatism you're embedding either on the OEM unit side or on the number of OEMs, I guess, as you build that outlook on the SuperVision side?
顯然,那裡有很好的增長,但當你觀察‘25’、‘26時,你能談談你在 OEM 單位方面或 OEM 數量上嵌入了什麼樣的保守主義嗎?我想,正如你所言在SuperVision 方面建立這樣的前景?
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Yes, so I mentioned that previously.
是的,所以我之前提到過。
So, in 2024, there are going to be five car models all from the Geely Group.
因此,到2024年,吉利集團將有五款車型。
Two of ZEEKR, Smart, Volvo, and Polestar, four.
ZEEKR、Smart、Volvo 和 Polestar 中的兩個,四個。
And then starting end of 2024, beginning of 2025, four to six FAW car models would be added.
然後從2024年底、2025年初開始,將新增四到六款一汽車型。
And then the big jump is in 2026, where we have Porsche, we have the 17 car models of the big western OEM, and we have Mahindra in China.
然後是 2026 年的大躍進,我們有保時捷,我們有西方大型 OEM 的 17 款車型,我們在中國有馬恆達。
And in all cases...
在所有情況下...
Nimrod Nehushtan - Senior Vice President Business Development and Strategy, Co-Manager REM
Nimrod Nehushtan - Senior Vice President Business Development and Strategy, Co-Manager REM
India.
印度。
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Mahindra in India.
印度馬恆達。
And in all cases, we're talking about the standard fit.
在所有情況下,我們談論的是標準配合。
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
Great, thank you so much.
太好了,非常感謝。
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Just to follow up, Vijay, yes, we want to be more conservative, right?
只是為了跟進,Vijay,是的,我們想要更加保守,對吧?
And this is why we provided more of a tracking document with the number of models, the OEMs, the launch dates for analysts to make their own estimates for these years.
這就是為什麼我們提供了更多的追蹤文件,其中包括車型數量、原始設備製造商、發布日期,以便分析師對這些年做出自己的估計。
And like we said before, kind of the analysts that have calibrated to this and adjusted their forecasts, we see those as reasonable and achievable.
正如我們之前所說,分析師已經對此進行了校準並調整了他們的預測,我們認為這些是合理且可實現的。
So, thank you.
所以謝謝。
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Vijay Rakesh - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Next question, please.
請下一個問題。
Kat are their additional questions?
吉他們還有其他問題嗎?
Operator
Operator
Luke Junk, Baird.
路克垃圾,貝爾德。
Luke Junk - Analyst
Luke Junk - Analyst
Good afternoon.
午安.
Thanks for taking the question.
感謝您提出問題。
First question, you stated in the prepared remarks that EyeQ visibility has improved in recent weeks.
第一個問題,您在準備好的演講中表示,EyeQ 的知名度在最近幾週有所提高。
Just hoping you can expand on what is better understood sitting here in late January.
只是希望您能在一月下旬坐在這裡進一步闡述更好理解的內容。
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
I think the visibility is better understood.
我認為可見性更好理解。
Moran Rojansky - CFO
Moran Rojansky - CFO
Okay.
好的。
Yes.
是的。
So first of all, I mean, based on the shipment schedule for 2024 and the information that we have on specific inventory levels from our own research and based on also on customers' input.
首先,我的意思是,基於 2024 年的發貨計劃以及我們透過自己的研究獲得的具體庫存水平的信息,也基於客戶的輸入。
So, we of course reviewed the detailed production forecast and as we mentioned we expect the majority of the excess inventory should be cleared by the end of Q1 with most of the rest clearing in Q2.
因此,我們當然審查了詳細的生產預測,正如我們所提到的,我們預計大部分過剩庫存應在第一季末清除,其餘大部分將在第二季清除。
Of course, actual production levels of per OEM customers will play a role.
當然,每個 OEM 客戶的實際生產水準也會發揮作用。
But based on our projection, again we believe the excess inventory will be fully cleared by year end.
但根據我們的預測,我們再次相信過剩庫存將在年底前完全清除。
At the end of the day, we had a very true analysis of again, ADAS self-treatment rate and lower production per OEM to understand that in order to meet the production of this year, that's what we need to provide, of course, taking into account the inventory issue.
歸根結底,我們再次對ADAS自處理率和每個OEM的較低產量進行了非常真實的分析,並了解到為了滿足今年的產量,這就是我們需要提供的,當然,考慮到庫存問題。
So, we have better visibility.
所以,我們有更好的可見性。
We also, of course, we've mentioned Q1, we have also some visibility to Q2 that we said will be at least 100% higher than Q1.
當然,我們也提到了第一季度,我們也對第二季度有一定的了解,我們說第二季度將比第一季高出至少 100%。
So yes, and for the rest of the year, again, in line with production expectation and the analysis and what we got from our customers, that's where we think we're going to land.
所以,是的,在今年剩下的時間裡,根據生產預期、分析以及我們從客戶那裡得到的信息,這就是我們認為我們將實現的目標。
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Thanks, Moran.
謝謝,莫蘭。
I'll just follow up with a couple of things because we've been obviously looking very closely.
我將跟進一些事情,因為我們顯然一直在非常仔細地觀察。
So, the visibility since January 4, 2024, has improved because we have commitments for Q1.
因此,自 2024 年 1 月 4 日以來,可見度有所改善,因為我們對第一季做出了承諾。
We know what the -- generally what the volume is going to be in Q1.
我們知道第一季的銷售量通常是多少。
We have more visibility in terms of Q2 starting to adjust into commitment.
我們對第二季開始調整承諾有更多的了解。
So that's why we have the confidence to say that Q2 will be at least 100% higher than Q1.
這就是為什麼我們有信心說第二季將比第一季高出至少 100%。
And then in terms of the back half, we have the indications from the Tier 1s and these kind of match up with kind of the market-based forecast that we're looking at as well.
然後就後半部分而言,我們有來自一級的跡象,這些跡象與我們正在研究的基於市場的預測相符。
So overall, we feel good about kind of the visibility towards the 31 million to 33 million units of EyeQ volume in 2024 and that, that level of production will or that level of shipments will result in the elimination of the excess inventory almost completely by the middle of the year and then potentially with a little bit left in the back half.
因此,總體而言,我們對 2024 年 EyeQ 銷量達到 3,100 萬至 3,300 萬台的前景感到滿意,並且這種生產水平或那種出貨量將導致幾乎完全消除過剩庫存。年中,然後下半年可能還剩下一點時間。
Luke Junk - Analyst
Luke Junk - Analyst
Understood.
明白了。
Thanks for that, Dan.
謝謝你,丹。
And then my follow-up question, hoping you could comment on some of the key facets of the anticipated expense growth in 2024.
然後是我的後續問題,希望您能對 2024 年預期費用增長的一些關鍵方面發表評論。
In particular, there's been certainly an increasing focus on the AI-related facets of driving policy development.
特別是,人們越來越關注推動政策制定的人工智慧相關面向。
I think it would just be clarifying to understand how Mobileye is investing incrementally in generative AI tools this year.
我認為,了解 Mobileye 今年如何在生成式人工智慧工具上進行增量投資將會更加清晰。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Our OpEx growth is mostly devoted on our desire to execute all these programs in SuperVision.
我們的營運支出成長主要是因為我們希望在 SuperVision 中執行所有這些計劃。
The Porsche, the western OEM, all of those are converging to 2026 to continue supporting ZEEKR, of course with the many OTAs that are going forward.
保時捷、西方 OEM,所有這些都將在 2026 年繼續支持 ZEEKR,當然還有許多正在推進的 OTA。
Our move from a Tier 2 to Tier 1 with Porsche and the western OEM, we're acting as a Tier 1 supplier.
我們與保時捷和西方原始設備製造商一起從二級供應商轉變為一級供應商,我們充當一級供應商。
In some other cases, we're acting as a Tier 1.5, but all of this requires more resources to support this in a very good way.
在其他一些情況下,我們充當第 1.5 層,但所有這些都需要更多資源來以非常好的方式支持這一點。
As of using AI, this does not need growth.
至於使用AI,這不需要成長。
This is our normal activity with the existing manpower that we have.
這是我們利用現有人力進行的正常活動。
It is more moving from a Tier 2 to Tier 1 and supporting so many car models that are coming out in production in the next few years that requires some growth.
它更多的是從 Tier 2 轉向 Tier 1,並支持未來幾年即將投產的眾多車型,這需要一些增長。
Moran Rojansky - CFO
Moran Rojansky - CFO
Yes.
是的。
Of course, the headcount cost increases, again, a few tens of millions relates to the higher number of employees and maybe more enhanced salary raises and also the savings that we had in 2023.
當然,人員成本也會增加,數千萬與員工數量增加、加薪幅度可能更大以及我們在 2023 年節省的費用有關。
We need to recall in Q4 we had some reimbursement for military service.
我們需要回顧一下,在第四季度,我們有一些兵役報銷。
These are not things that necessarily will happen in 2024.
這些事情不一定會在 2024 年發生。
Also, the ILS effect, Israeli Shekel effect in 2023.
此外,還有 2023 年的 ILS 效應、以色列謝克爾效應。
Besides that, we have also significant facilities growth of a few tens of millions.
除此之外,我們的設施也大幅增加了數千萬美元。
We're moving to the new campus.
我們要搬到新校區了。
The appreciation there is approximately $20 million higher, so also in terms of facilities.
那裡的升值大約高出 2000 萬美元,設施方面也是如此。
And besides that, also our EyeQ platform, EyeQ 6 and EyeQ 7, our Radar product as we approach 2025.
除此之外,還有我們的 EyeQ 平台、EyeQ 6 和 EyeQ 7,以及我們在 2025 年接近時的雷達產品。
Also in the Lidar domain, we have some growth in 2024.
同樣在光達領域,我們到 2024 年也會有一些成長。
Luke Junk - Analyst
Luke Junk - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Thank you.
謝謝。
Thanks, Luke.
謝謝,盧克。
Next question please.
請下一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Chris McNally, Evercore.
克里斯·麥克納利,Evercore。
Chris McNally - Analyst
Chris McNally - Analyst
Thanks so much, Amnon.
非常感謝,阿姆農。
Thanks team.
感謝團隊。
So maybe just some quick math, batting cleanup here on the ADAS hand.
所以也許只是一些快速的數學計算,在 ADAS 方面進行清理。
So, I think previously, Mobileye has discussed 50%, '21 penetration for the industry moving to about 75%, '25, '26.
所以,我認為之前,Mobileye 已經討論過 '21' 行業的滲透率達到 50%,'25'、'26 約為 75%。
This seems slightly pushed out now looking at '25 or '26, something like in the low- or mid-60% penetration.
現在看看 25 或 26 年,這似乎有點被推遲了,就像 60% 的中低滲透率一樣。
So first, can we talk about industry adoption on base ADAS?
首先,我們可以談談基礎 ADAS 的產業採用嗎?
And then second, around global market share, Amnon, you discussed lower share on maybe some of the domestics of China share maybe 50% or below.
其次,關於全球市場份額,Amnon,您討論了中國某些國內市場份額可能低於 50% 或更低的份額。
Is it fair to see your 65% to 70% historical share maybe move to this kind of, I don't know, 64%, 65% on that mix effect over the next couple of years?
看到你的 65% 到 70% 的歷史份額在未來幾年可能會轉變為這種混合效應,我不知道,64%、65%,這公平嗎?
So, any new high level math that you could provide us on industry chips, sort of later in the decade would be really helpful.
因此,在本世紀後期,您可以在行業晶片上為我們提供的任何新的高級數學都會非常有幫助。
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
I think on the western OEMs, our market share is continuing to grow.
我認為在西方整車廠中,我們的市佔率正在持續成長。
Just based on all the design wins that we had in 2023 and 2022, we are growing our market share.
基於我們在 2023 年和 2022 年所獲得的所有設計成果,我們的市佔率正在持續成長。
As I said before, eight of the 10 biggest OEMs, we have more than 90% market share.
正如我之前所說,10家最大的整車廠中,我們有8家擁有超過90%的市佔率。
With China, the growth of the Chinese OEMs is faster than the growth of our market share.
就中國而言,中國整車廠的成長速度快於我們市場佔有率的成長速度。
So, our market share there is reducing naturally.
所以,我們在那裡的市佔率自然在減少。
As I mentioned before, Changan is growing very, very fast and we have zero -- we have no relationship with Changan.
正如我之前提到的,長安的發展非常非常快,而我們的關係為零——我們與長安沒有任何關係。
BYD is growing very fast.
比亞迪的發展速度非常快。
We have only 30% market share with BYD.
我們與比亞迪的市佔率只有30%。
But we are continuing to win, to get design wins, and both the low end ADAS and the high end ADAS like SuperVision.
但我們正在繼續獲勝,贏得設計勝利,包括低階 ADAS 和 SuperVision 等高端 ADAS。
So we will see how the market share in China will play out in the next few years, but now it's really an unstable position because the market is going very, very fast.
因此,我們將看看未來幾年中國的市場份額將如何發揮,但現在它的地位確實不穩定,因為市場發展得非常非常快。
Nimrod Nehushtan - Senior Vice President Business Development and Strategy, Co-Manager REM
Nimrod Nehushtan - Senior Vice President Business Development and Strategy, Co-Manager REM
If I may add, I think that if you refer to a correction to the market share calculation based on the inventory levels, we really think that the inventory levels that we've disclosed were accumulated over a period of time that is longer than a year, likely closer to three years.
如果我可以補充一點,我認為如果您指的是根據庫存水準對市場份額計算進行的修正,我們確實認為我們披露的庫存水準是在超過一年的時間內累積的,可能接近三年。
So, if you kind of try to compound what will be the effect for the annual volumes that we have disclosed, it's more about a $2 million reduction per year on average, which accounts for maybe 1%, 2% of the market share calculation that we've had in the past.
因此,如果您嘗試將我們揭露的年度銷售的影響綜合起來,那麼平均每年減少 200 萬美元,這可能佔市場份額計算的 1%、2%我們過去有過。
So, we don't think that this indicates for a significant change in our market share forecast on a global level.
因此,我們認為這並不能表明我們的全球市場份額預測發生重大變化。
Chris McNally - Analyst
Chris McNally - Analyst
All makes sense on the explanation on market share.
對於市場份額的解釋一切都是有道理的。
Maybe if we can go back to that industry adoption, sort of when will we hit on a global basis, 75% penetration?
也許如果我們可以回到產業採用率,那麼我們什麼時候才能在全球達到 75% 的滲透率?
Obviously some of those western players, Amnon, I have been pretty slow to make standard fit, obviously outside of Toyota.
顯然,有些西方球員,阿姆農,我在製定標準配合方面相當緩慢,顯然是在豐田之外。
But any view on what is sort of a ballpark year we can think about industry ADAS penetration being around 75%?
但是,對於 ADAS 行業滲透率達到 75% 左右的大致年份,有什麼看法嗎?
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
Amnon Shashua - President, CEO, and Director
From external sources, this is the number that is being projected until the end of the decade, 75% market share of ADAS.
從外部來源來看,這是預計到本世紀末的數字,ADAS 的市佔率為 75%。
We have no reason to believe this is going to change.
我們沒有理由相信這種情況會改變。
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Even possibly higher.
甚至可能更高。
And I think that India is an area where we see a lot of growth.
我認為印度是一個我們看到大量成長的地區。
So, the western markets are fairly well penetrated, probably above 70%.
因此,西方市場的滲透率相當高,可能超過 70%。
But there's still some growth there.
但那裡仍然有一些增長。
But I think a market like India, which is maybe single digit ADAS penetration, but the systems that have been on the road in production the last couple of years have been extremely successful.
但我認為像印度這樣的市場,ADAS 的普及率可能只有個位數,但過去幾年投入生產的系統非常成功。
So now everybody's trying to kind of catch up and we have a very good position there.
所以現在每個人都在努力追趕,我們在那裡處於非常好的位置。
So I think that that's going to be a good market for ADAS adoption as well as our share over the next couple of years.
因此,我認為這對於 ADAS 的採用以及我們未來幾年的份額來說將是一個良好的市場。
Nimrod Nehushtan - Senior Vice President Business Development and Strategy, Co-Manager REM
Nimrod Nehushtan - Senior Vice President Business Development and Strategy, Co-Manager REM
If I may add, we do see in the last year, we did start to see a growing pull from regulatory bodies in emerging markets in order to kind of start promoting the adoption of ADAS systems in new markets like South America, India as Dan mentioned.
如果我可以補充一點,我們確實在去年看到,我們確實開始看到新興市場監管機構的吸引力越來越大,以便開始促進ADAS 系統在南美、印度等新市場的採用,正如Dan 所提到的那樣。
In addition, in Europe and the United States, there is a move towards mandating safety systems for vehicle production.
此外,歐洲和美國正在採取行動,要求汽車生產採用安全系統。
This started just recently in Europe with GSR, which is not just a kind of a bonus feature, it's a mandate in order to sell cars.
最近在歐洲,GSR 開始了這種做法,這不僅是一種獎勵功能,更是銷售汽車的強制要求。
So, these two driving forces are what we think will push the industry towards higher adoption rates within the next few years.
因此,我們認為這兩個驅動力將推動該行業在未來幾年內實現更高的採用率。
Chris McNally - Analyst
Chris McNally - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Thanks, Chris.
謝謝,克里斯。
Operator
Operator
This concludes our question-and-answer session.
我們的問答環節到此結束。
I would like to turn the floor back over to Dan Galves for closing comments.
我想把發言權交還給丹·加爾維斯(Dan Galves)以供結束評論。
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Dan Galves - Chief Communications Officer
Thank you, Kat, for managing the call.
凱特,謝謝您管理這通通話。
Thanks to the management team of Mobileye and thanks to everyone for joining.
感謝Mobileye的管理團隊,感謝大家的加入。
We'll talk to you next quarter.
我們將在下個季度與您交談。
Thank you.
謝謝。