萬豪國際 (MAR) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q2 營收與 EPS 均優於預期,全球 RevPAR 年增 3.4%,美加區 RevPAR 年增 5%,為 13 季來新高,帶動整體財務表現強勁
    • 上修 2026 全年全球 RevPAR 成長指引至 3%~3.5%,全年 gross fee guidance 亦上調至 11% 成長($6.03B~$6.06B),IMF 預估年增 3%~5%
    • 市場反應未於逐字稿中揭露
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 美加區 World Cup 與非 World Cup 市場需求強勁,帶動 RevPAR 及財務表現超預期
      • 豪華與度假型飯店持續領先,豪華酒店 RevPAR 年增逾 9%,選擇型服務酒店 RevPAR 年增逾 4%
      • 全球簽約創新高,開發管線年增近 7%,轉換型(conversion)飯店佔簽約 34%、開幕 40%,推動未來成長
      • 新信用卡合作協議(JPMorgan Chase、Amex)帶來高成長潛力,預期 2028 年 co-brand card fee 年增 $100M~$125M
      • AI 與數位轉型推動營運效率與顧客體驗提升,Ask Bonvoy AI 搜尋已於 6 月啟動分階段上線
    • 風險:
      • 中東地區衝突持續影響 EMEA 業績,Q2 中東 RevPAR 年減 43%,全年全球 RevPAR 受中東影響約 100bps
      • 中東建案延遲導致 2026 淨房間數成長指引下修至原區間低端(4.5%~5%)
      • 日圓貶值影響日本聯名卡手續費收入,對全球信用卡費用成長帶來逆風
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 全球 RevPAR:年增 3.4%,美加區年增 5%,APEC 年增逾 5%,大中華區年增逾 3%,EMEA 年減逾 5%(中東年減 43%,歐洲年增逾 4%)
    • 豪華酒店 RevPAR:美加區年增逾 9%
    • 選擇型服務酒店 RevPAR:美加區年增逾 4%
    • 全球淨房間數:12 個月年增 4.5%,總房間數超過 180 萬間
    • 全球開發管線:年增近 7%,達 629,000 間房,279,000 間在建
    • Q2 總 gross fee revenue:年增 13% 至 $1.58B
    • Q2 incentive management fees(IMF):年增 6% 至 $212M
    • Q2 adjusted EBITDA:年增 13% 至 $1.59B
    • Q2 adjusted diluted EPS:年增 20% 至 $3.19
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 全年 gross fee revenue 預估 $6.03B~$6.06B,年增 11%
    • 2026 全年 adjusted EBITDA 預估 $5.97B~$6.03B,年增 11%~12%
    • 2026 全年投資支出(CapEx)預估 $1.25B~$1.35B,較前次預期上調
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: ITR(Intent to Recommend)激勵方案對業主與財報的影響?
      A: ITR 激勵方案是為提升業主經濟效益,達標者可獲最高 50bps 房租收入費用回饋,將於下半年開始反映,屬於公司 reinvestment,對 owned, leased and other revenue 有影響。
    • Q: 新聯名信用卡協議的 ramp-up 與未來貢獻?
      A: 2026 年下半年將帶來 $30M 增量,完整效益需數季新卡產品推出,預期 2028 年全年貢獻 $100M~$125M,主要利益流向忠誠計畫。
    • Q: Q4 fee revenue 增長是否有保守成分?有何抵銷因素?
      A: Q4 RevPAR 預期低於 Q3,主因美加區 Q4 無 World Cup 加持,中東 Q4 為旺季且去年基期高,ADR 難以複製去年多場大型活動帶來的高點。
    • Q: 2027 年淨房間數成長展望與開發商情緒?
      A: 中東延遲影響 2026 指引,但 30 個月 CAGR 仍達 5.2%,開發商信心強,2026 上半年簽約創歷史新高。
    • Q: 投資支出(CapEx)增加的細節與數位轉型進度?
      A: 競爭激烈導致 key money 增加,40% 投資用於合約取得,25% 用於數位轉型(多數可回收),其餘為自有/租賃酒店翻新等。數位轉型仍在早期階段,未來 tech 投資會逐步下降但仍持續投入。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Please stand by, your meeting is about to begin. Hello, and welcome, everyone, joining today's Marriott International Q2 2026 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this call is being recorded. We are standing by if you should need any assistance.

    請稍候,您的會議即將開始。各位好,歡迎大家參加今天的萬豪國際 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意,本次電話會議將被錄音。如您需要任何協助,我們將隨時待命。

  • It is now my pleasure to turn the meeting over to Jackie Burka McConagha. Please go ahead.

    現在我很榮幸將會議交給 Jackie Burka McConagha。請開始。

  • Jackie McConagha - Senior Vice President

    Jackie McConagha - Senior Vice President

  • Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Marriott's second quarter 2026 earnings call. On the call with me today are Tony Capuano, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Jen Mason, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Pilar Fernandez, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

    各位早安,歡迎參加萬豪 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有:我們的總裁兼執行長 Tony Capuano;執行副總裁兼財務長 Jen Mason;以及投資人關係資深總監 Pilar Fernandez。

  • Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments.

    在開始之前,我想提醒各位,我們今天的許多評論並非歷史事實,依據聯邦證券法屬於前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受到我們在 SEC 申報文件中所述的眾多風險與不確定性影響,可能導致未來結果與我們評論中明示或暗示的內容出現重大差異。

  • Unless otherwise stated, our RevPAR, occupancy, average daily rate and property-level revenues comments reflect system-wide constant currency results for comparable hotels and all changes refer to year-over-year changes for the comparable period. Statements in our comments and the press release we issued earlier today are effective only today and will not be updated as actual events unfold. You can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks today on our Investor Relations website.

    除非另有說明,我們對 RevPAR、入住率、平均每日房價(ADR)及物業層級收入的評論,反映的是可比飯店之全系統固定匯率結果,且所有變動均指可比期間的年對年變動。我們在評論及今日稍早發布的新聞稿中的陳述僅於今日有效,且不會隨實際事件發展而更新。您可在我們的投資人關係網站上找到本次財報新聞稿,以及我們今日發言中提及之所有非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的調節表。

  • And now I will turn the call over to Tony.

    現在我將把電話會議交給 Tony。

  • Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Jackie, and good morning, everyone. We reported a very strong second quarter this morning with RevPAR and financial results above our prior expectations. We grew net rooms by 4.5% over the 12 months ending June 30, further expanding our industry-leading global portfolio to over 1.8 million rooms across more than 10,000 properties. Second quarter global RevPAR rose 3.4%. RevPAR in the US and Canada region rose 5%, the highest quarterly increase in 13 quarters, with strength in World Cup and non-World Cup markets. Excluding the World Cup, second quarter RevPAR rose 4%.

    謝謝 Jackie,各位早安。我們今天早上公布了非常強勁的第二季表現,RevPAR 與財務結果均高於我們先前的預期。截至 6 月 30 日止的 12 個月內,我們的淨客房數成長 4.5%,進一步擴大我們業界領先的全球版圖,房間數超過 180 萬間、遍及逾 10,000 家物業。第二季全球 RevPAR 上升 3.4%。美國與加拿大地區 RevPAR 上升 5%,為 13 個季度以來最高的單季增幅,世界盃與非世界盃市場皆表現強勁。若排除世界盃因素,第二季 RevPAR 上升 4%。

  • Luxury and resort hotels continued to lead in the region in the quarter with luxury RevPAR up over 9%. Importantly, strength was pervasive across chain scales with select service RevPAR increasing over 4%. With the conflict in the Middle East weighing on results, second quarter international RevPAR declined slightly year-over-year.

    本季在該地區,奢華與度假型飯店持續領先,其中奢華 RevPAR 上升超過 9%。重要的是,強勁表現遍及各連鎖等級,精選服務(select service)RevPAR 增加超過 4%。由於中東衝突對結果造成壓力,第二季國際 RevPAR 年對年小幅下滑。

  • RevPAR in EMEA declined just over 5% as solid performance in Europe was offset by a meaningful decline in the Middle East. RevPAR in Europe rose over 4% in the second quarter, driven by strength in leisure, particularly in the Mediterranean countries, including Italy, Spain and Greece. Middle East RevPAR declined 43% in the quarter, a bit better than prior expectations on better-than-expected domestic leisure demand.

    EMEA 地區 RevPAR 下滑略高於 5%,歐洲的穩健表現被中東的顯著下滑所抵銷。第二季歐洲 RevPAR 上升超過 4%,主要由休閒需求帶動,尤其是地中海國家,包括義大利、西班牙與希臘。中東 RevPAR 本季下滑 43%,因國內休閒需求優於預期,表現略好於先前預估。

  • Second quarter RevPAR in APEC rose over 5%. While Middle East travel corridor disruptions did weigh on select APEC markets in April, RevPAR surpassed our previous expectations in May and June, thanks to improved flight capacity as well as strong intra-regional demand. RevPAR in Greater China rose over 3%, led by strong inbound leisure demand recovery as our hotels continued to gain share in an uneven consumer spending environment.

    第二季 APEC 地區 RevPAR 上升超過 5%。雖然 4 月中東旅遊走廊的中斷確實對部分 APEC 市場造成壓力,但在航班運能改善以及區域內需求強勁的帶動下,5 月與 6 月的 RevPAR 超出我們先前預期。大中華區 RevPAR 上升超過 3%,在消費支出環境不均衡之下,受入境休閒需求復甦帶動,且我們的飯店持續提升市占。

  • Luxury, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Hainan remain the key drivers. RevPAR in CALA rose 3% in the second quarter, driven by strong luxury and leisure demand across the Caribbean. Looking ahead, as Jen will discuss further, with strong broad-based demand generally expected to continue, we are raising our full year 2026 guidance range to 3% to 3.5% global RevPAR growth.

    奢華、香港、台灣與海南仍是主要驅動因素。CALA 地區第二季 RevPAR 上升 3%,主要受加勒比海地區奢華與休閒需求強勁帶動。展望未來,如 Jen 將進一步說明,鑑於預期強勁且廣泛的需求大致將延續,我們將 2026 全年指引區間上調至全球 RevPAR 成長 3% 至 3.5%。

  • Now let's turn to results by customer segment. In the second quarter, leisure RevPAR rose 5% globally and 7% in the US and Canada. Group RevPAR rose 3% globally and 4% in the US and Canada. Second quarter business transient RevPAR rose 2% globally and 3% in the US and Canada. Within business transient in the US and Canada, government RevPAR increased 5%, benefiting from easier year-over-year comparisons, while nongovernment business transient RevPAR rose 3% with mid-single-digit ADR increases offsetting slight declines in room nights.

    接著我們來看依客戶區隔的表現。第二季,全球休閒 RevPAR 上升 5%,美國與加拿大上升 7%。團體 RevPAR 全球上升 3%,美國與加拿大上升 4%。第二季商務散客(business transient)RevPAR 全球上升 2%,美國與加拿大上升 3%。在美國與加拿大的商務散客中,政府 RevPAR 上升 5%,受惠於較容易的年對年比較基期;非政府商務散客 RevPAR 上升 3%,其中 ADR 的中個位數增幅抵銷了間夜數的小幅下滑。

  • On the development front, we experienced record global signings in the first half of the year. Our global pipeline grew nearly 7% year-over-year to a new record of approximately 629,000 rooms at the end of June. We led the industry with over 279,000 rooms under construction, including pending conversions. Conversions, including multiunit deals remain a significant driver of growth, representing 34% of signings and 40% of openings in the first half of the year.

    在開發方面,我們在上半年創下全球簽約量新高。截至 6 月底,我們的全球在建管線年對年成長近 7%,達到約 629,000 間客房的新紀錄。我們以超過 279,000 間在建客房領先同業,其中包含待轉換(pending conversions)。轉換案(含多物業交易)仍是成長的重要驅動力,上半年簽約中占 34%,開業中占 40%。

  • One multiunit deal to highlight. In June, we announced a strategic agreement to introduce Series by Marriott to Greater China, with plans to add approximately 100 hotels under this collection brand with the first openings expected later this year. With our growing pipeline and strong momentum in conversions, we still expect net rooms to grow in the mid-single-digit range over the next few years.

    這裡特別提一筆多物業交易。6 月,我們宣布一項策略協議,將 Series by Marriott 引進大中華區,計畫在此系列品牌下新增約 100 家飯店,首批開業預計於今年稍晚。隨著我們的管線持續成長且轉換動能強勁,我們仍預期未來幾年淨客房數將以中個位數區間成長。

  • In fact, our compound annual growth rate since the end of 2023 is 5.2%. Our full year 2026 net rooms growth is now more likely to be towards the low end of our previous 4.5% to 5% range, primarily due to construction delays in the Middle East and including our typical assumption of between 1% and 1.5% room deletions.

    事實上,自 2023 年底以來,我們的複合年成長率為 5.2%。我們對 2026 全年淨客房數成長的預期,現在較可能落在先前 4.5% 至 5% 區間的低端,主要原因是中東的施工延誤,並且包含我們一貫假設的約 1% 至 1.5% 客房退出(room deletions)。

  • As we grow our global portfolio, we are also intensely focused on working with our hotel owners who are foundational to our business, to help strengthen hotel level economics and drive owner returns and long-term value across the system. As part of these efforts, we've implemented productivity enhancements from our prior enterprise-wide efficiency exercise, and we continue to identify ways to enhance top line performance and improve productivity at the hotel level.

    在擴大全球版圖的同時,我們也高度聚焦與飯店業主合作;業主是我們業務的基石。我們致力於協助強化飯店層級的經濟效益,並在整個系統中推動業主報酬與長期價值。作為這些努力的一部分,我們已落實先前全企業效率專案所帶來的生產力提升,並持續尋找方法以提升營收表現並改善飯店層級的生產力。

  • Let me outline some of the specific steps we've taken. At the beginning of the year, we lowered loyalty charge-out rates across our global system by roughly 5% to what we believe are the lowest in the industry across all chain scales. In addition, earlier this year, we enhanced owner reimbursement for Bonvoy redemption stays on high-demand nights. We have also introduced streamlined brand standards, which simplify operations and reduce costs, and we have rolled out flexible renovation scopes that focus on customer-facing elements of the hotels.

    我來概述我們採取的一些具體措施。年初,我們將全球系統的會員忠誠計畫(loyalty)分攤費率下調約 5%,我們相信這在各連鎖等級中均為業界最低。此外,今年稍早,我們也提高了在需求旺盛夜晚的 Bonvoy 兌換住宿之業主補償。我們亦導入精簡的品牌標準,以簡化營運並降低成本,同時推出更具彈性的翻新範圍,聚焦於飯店面向顧客的要素。

  • As Jen will discuss further, we are also now planning to roll out a new ITR or intent to recommend incentive in the US and Canada that will provide a fee discount for top hotels that receive strong guest satisfaction scores. I am also pleased to announce that we recently executed new long-term agreements for our co-branded credit card program in the US with our valued long-standing market-leading partners, JPMorgan Chase and American Express.

    如 Jen 將進一步說明,我們目前也規劃在美國與加拿大推出新的 ITR(intent to recommend,推薦意願)獎勵機制,對於獲得高顧客滿意度分數的頂尖飯店提供費用折扣。我也很高興宣布,我們近期已與長期且備受重視、並在市場上領先的合作夥伴 JPMorgan Chase 與 American Express,就美國聯名信用卡計畫簽署新的長期協議。

  • These agreements reflect the strength of the Marriott Bonvoy brand and the extraordinary value of our brand portfolio, the continued growth of our global lodging system and the powerful combination of scale and engagement represented by our cardholders and more than 295 million loyalty program members. We expect the new economics and cardholder benefits to drive significant value across the Marriott Bonvoy ecosystem, including to our hotel owners, cardholders and loyalty program members.

    這些協議反映了萬豪旅享家(Marriott Bonvoy)品牌的實力,以及我們品牌組合的卓越價值、全球住宿系統的持續成長,並展現出由持卡人與超過2.95億名忠誠計畫會員所代表的規模與互動參與所形成的強大結合。我們預期新的經濟條款與持卡人權益將在萬豪旅享家生態系中帶來顯著價值,包括為我們的飯店業主、持卡人及忠誠計畫會員創造效益。

  • Additionally, we continue to make great progress in our multiyear technology transformation while increasingly leveraging AI across the enterprise to help deliver revenue to owners more efficiently as well as elevating the guest experience and automating workflows for associates. In June, we began our phased rollout of Ask Bonvoy, our AI-powered conversational search experience on marriott.com and the Marriott Bonvoy app, reflecting our commitment to using technology to enhance the customer experience, strengthen engagement with our members and drive greater operational efficiency. With our well-respected brands and industry-leading scale, we are also working closely with Google and other leading AI platform providers as their travel search and commerce tools evolve.

    此外,我們在多年期的科技轉型方面持續取得重大進展,同時在全企業範圍內日益運用AI,以更有效率地協助為業主帶來營收、提升賓客體驗,並為同仁自動化工作流程。6月,我們開始分階段推出 Ask Bonvoy——我們在 marriott.com 與萬豪旅享家App上的AI驅動對話式搜尋體驗,反映我們致力於運用科技提升客戶體驗、強化會員互動並推動更高的營運效率。憑藉我們備受尊敬的品牌與業界領先的規模,我們也正與Google及其他領先的AI平台供應商密切合作,因應其旅遊搜尋與商務工具的演進。

  • Before I end my prepared remarks, I want to thank our Marriott teams around the world. Our results today would not have been possible without their hard work and dedication.

    在結束我事先準備的發言之前,我想感謝全球各地的萬豪團隊。若沒有他們的辛勤付出與投入,我們今天的成果不可能達成。

  • And now I will turn the call over to Jen for more details on our financial results. Jen?

    接下來我將把電話會議交給Jen,請她更詳細說明我們的財務結果。Jen?

  • Jennifer Mason - Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jennifer Mason - Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Tony. I'll start by reviewing our strong second quarter results. Second quarter total gross fee revenues increased 13% year-over-year to $1.58 billion, reflecting higher RevPAR, rooms growth and increases in co-branded credit card fees and residential branding fees. Incentive management fees, or IMF, rose 6% to $212 million in the second quarter, led by a significant increase in the US and Canada, which more than offset a meaningful decline in EMEA due to the Middle East.

    謝謝你,Tony。我先回顧我們強勁的第二季業績。第二季總毛費用收入(total gross fee revenues)年增13%至15.8億美元,反映RevPAR提高、客房數成長,以及聯名信用卡費用與住宅品牌費用增加。第二季獎勵性管理費(Incentive management fees,IMF)成長6%至2.12億美元,主要由美國與加拿大的顯著增加所帶動,且其增幅足以抵銷因中東因素導致EMEA出現的明顯下滑。

  • Owned, leased and other revenue, net of owned, leased and other expenses totaled $49 million compared to $78 million in the second quarter of last year, primarily due to a $27 million property-related litigation accrual as well as lower termination fees. Second quarter G&A rose 5% year-over-year, primarily due to timing of compensation costs. Adjusted EBITDA increased 13% to $1.59 billion and adjusted diluted EPS rose 20% to $3.19.

    自有、租賃及其他收入(扣除自有、租賃及其他費用)合計為4,900萬美元,較去年第二季的7,800萬美元下降,主要因提列2,700萬美元與物業相關的訴訟應計費用,以及終止費用較低。第二季一般及行政費用(G&A)年增5%,主要由於薪酬成本認列時點所致。調整後EBITDA成長13%至15.9億美元,調整後稀釋每股盈餘(EPS)成長20%至3.19美元。

  • Now let's talk about our outlook for the third quarter and the full year. We are raising our full year global RevPAR guidance to 3% to 3.5% growth, reflecting our second quarter global outperformance as well as stronger outlook for the second half of the year for all regions. Note that the strong World Cup performance in June and July provided a slightly larger boost to full year global RevPAR than expected at closer to 45 basis points globally, above our prior expectation of 30 to 35 basis points.

    接下來談談我們對第三季與全年展望。我們上調全年全球RevPAR指引至成長3%至3.5%,反映第二季全球表現優於預期,以及對下半年各區域更強勁的展望。請注意,6月與7月世界盃的強勁表現,對全年全球RevPAR的提振略高於預期,全球約接近45個基點,高於我們先前預期的30至35個基點。

  • Third quarter global RevPAR is expected to increase 3.5% to 4%. In the US and Canada, we expect the strong demand trends that extended into July across chain scales and customer segments to continue. Third quarter RevPAR is expected to be helped by the strong World Cup performance, while the fourth quarter could see a small negative impact from November's midterm elections.

    預期第三季全球RevPAR將成長3.5%至4%。在美國與加拿大,我們預期7月延續至今、涵蓋各連鎖等級與客群的強勁需求趨勢將持續。第三季RevPAR預期將受惠於世界盃的強勁表現,而第四季可能因11月期中選舉而出現小幅負面影響。

  • In Greater China, full year RevPAR is expected to be up 2% to 3%. In APEC, we anticipate continued strength in the back half of the year, driven by solid domestic and international demand, especially from the US CALA performance continues to be led by strong leisure demand across the Caribbean, offsetting weakness in Mexico.

    在大中華區,全年RevPAR預期將成長2%至3%。在APEC,我們預期下半年將持續強勁,受穩健的國內與國際需求帶動,尤其來自美國;CALA的表現仍由加勒比海地區強勁的休閒需求所主導,並抵銷墨西哥的疲弱。

  • EMEA is expected to continue to be impacted by the conflict in the Middle East, though to a lesser extent than previously anticipated. Year-over-year RevPAR in EMEA is expected to improve in the third quarter relative to the second quarter before moderating again in the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter, the Middle East faces difficult comparisons from the fourth quarter of 2025, where several large events drove meaningful ADR increases.

    EMEA預期仍將受到中東衝突影響,但程度將低於先前預期。EMEA的年對年RevPAR預期在第三季相較第二季有所改善,之後在第四季再度趨於放緩。在第四季,中東將面臨2025年第四季的高基期比較,當時多場大型活動帶動ADR顯著上升。

  • In addition, because the Middle East enters its peak tourism season in October, the region's performance will have a greater impact on EMEA's fourth quarter results than it did in the third quarter. We are also raising our full year 2026 gross fee guidance. For the full year, gross fee revenues could rise 11% to $6.03 billion to $6.06 billion. IMF are now expected to rise 3% to 5% year-over-year. The sensitivity of 1% change in full year 2026 RevPAR versus 2025, could be around $55 million to $65 million of RevPAR-related fees.

    此外,由於中東在10月進入旅遊旺季,該區表現對EMEA第四季結果的影響將大於第三季。我們也上調2026年全年毛費用指引。就全年而言,毛費用收入可能成長11%至60.3億至60.6億美元。IMF目前預期將年增3%至5%。2026年全年RevPAR相較2025年每變動1%,其對RevPAR相關費用的敏感度可能約為5,500萬至6,500萬美元。

  • Turning to our co-branded credit card fees. The improved economics from our new US agreements with JPMorgan Chase and American Express are expected to benefit the overall loyalty program. Our owners and franchisees, our cardholders and loyalty program members and our co-branded credit card fee stream. As a reminder, Marriott recognizes a portion of the global credit card funding as co-branded credit card fees in our franchise fee line, reflecting the royalty or compensation Marriott takes for licensing Marriott's intellectual property to the credit card issuers.

    接著談我們的聯名信用卡費用。我們與摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)及美國運通(American Express)在美國簽訂的新協議所帶來的經濟條款改善,預期將使整體忠誠計畫受益。這將惠及我們的業主與加盟商、持卡人與忠誠計畫會員,以及我們的聯名信用卡費用收入流。提醒一下,萬豪將全球信用卡資金挹注的一部分認列為加盟費用項下的聯名信用卡費用,反映萬豪就授權其智慧財產予信用卡發卡機構所收取的權利金或補償。

  • The expected incremental impact to our 2026 co-branded credit card fees solely from a partial year of the new terms of our cards under the Chase and Amex agreements in the US is approximately $30 million. We are now expecting global credit card fees to rise in the high 30% range this year, reflecting the terms of the new deals, partially offset by lower expectations for fees in Japan due to the decline in the yen. The benefit to the loyalty program and to our fees from our new US co-branded card deals is expected to build over time as new and refreshed US card products with new cardholder benefits are introduced, supporting anticipated growth in new accounts and cardholder spend.

    僅就美國Chase與Amex協議下新卡條款在2026年部分年度適用所帶來的增量影響而言,對我們2026年聯名信用卡費用的預期增量約為3,000萬美元。我們目前預期今年全球信用卡費用將上升至接近高30%區間,反映新交易條款,但部分被因日圓走貶而下調的日本費用預期所抵銷。新美國聯名卡協議對忠誠計畫及我們費用的效益,預期將隨時間逐步累積;隨著推出新卡與更新後的美國卡產品及新的持卡人權益,將支持新帳戶與持卡人消費的預期成長。

  • Full year residential branding fees are now expected to increase 55% to 65% due to the timing of unit sales. Timeshare fees are still expected to be relatively in line with the prior year at $110 million to $115 million. Owned, leased and other revenue, net of owned, leased and other expenses is now anticipated to total $175 million to $185 million in 2026.

    全年住宅品牌費用目前預期將因單位銷售時點而成長55%至65%。分時度假(Timeshare)費用仍預期大致與前一年持平,約為1.10億至1.15億美元。2026年自有、租賃及其他收入(扣除自有、租賃及其他費用)目前預期合計為1.75億至1.85億美元。

  • Full year results are expected to be impacted by the timing of renovations at certain large hotels in the portfolio, a slower expected ramp-up of Marriott Media Networks, the second quarter litigation accrual and the second quarter sale of a hotel in the US that will remain in the portfolio under a new long-term management agreement.

    全年結果預期將受到以下因素影響:投資組合中部分大型飯店整修時點、Marriott Media Networks較預期緩慢的爬坡、第二季訴訟應計費用,以及第二季出售一間位於美國的飯店(該飯店將在新的長期管理合約下仍留在投資組合中)。

  • Additionally, this updated outlook includes the impact from the ITR incentive that Tony discussed, which will be paid for by Marriott and not the system fund and will be in our owned, leased and other expenses. We view this as a reinvestment in our business that benefits our owners, enhances the experience of our guests and further strengthens Marriott's brand equity.

    此外,此次更新後的展望也納入Tony所提及的ITR獎勵之影響;該獎勵將由萬豪支付而非由系統基金支付,並將列入我們的自有、租賃及其他費用。我們將此視為對業務的再投資,可使業主受益、提升賓客體驗,並進一步強化萬豪的品牌資產。

  • 2026 G&A expense is still anticipated to increase just 1% to 3% compared to 2025 levels as year-over-year comparisons are expected to benefit from timing in the second half of the year, particularly in the fourth quarter. Full year adjusted EBITDA could increase between 11% and 12% to $5.97 billion to $6.03 billion. Our 2026 adjusted effective tax rate is expected to remain between 26% and 26.5%. Our underlying core tax rate for cash is anticipated to remain in the low 20% range. Strong adjusted EBITDA growth, combined with a meaningful reduction in share count leads to the expected full year adjusted diluted EPS growth between 16% and 18%.

    2026 年的 G&A 費用仍預期僅較 2025 年水準增加 1% 至 3%,因為年對年比較預計將受惠於下半年、特別是第四季的時點因素。全年調整後 EBITDA 可能增加 11% 至 12%,達 59.7 億美元至 60.3 億美元。我們 2026 年調整後有效稅率預期將維持在 26% 至 26.5% 之間。我們現金的基礎核心稅率預期將維持在 20% 出頭的區間。強勁的調整後 EBITDA 成長,加上股數顯著下降,帶動預期全年調整後稀釋 EPS 成長介於 16% 至 18%。

  • In the third quarter, gross fees are expected to rise 10% to 11%, even with residential branding fees expected to be down 15% to 20%. Third quarter IMF are expected to rise in the high single-digit to 10% range. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase 7% to 9%. We now expect 2026 investment spending to be $1.25 billion to $1.35 billion, an increase versus our prior expectations with slightly higher expectations across most categories.

    第三季總費用預期將上升 10% 至 11%,即便住宅品牌費預期將下降 15% 至 20%。第三季 IMF 預期將上升至高個位數到 10% 的區間。調整後 EBITDA 預期將增加 7% 至 9%。我們目前預期 2026 年投資支出為 12.5 億美元至 13.5 億美元,較先前預期增加,且多數類別的預期略為提高。

  • Contract acquisition costs are now expected to be around 40% to 45% of the total spending. The second largest bucket at around 25% of the total is expected to come from continued spending on our digital tech transformation, the overwhelming portion of which is expected to be reimbursed over time as well as corporate systems. The remaining portion is spending related to renovations at owned and leased hotels as well as other investing activities.

    合約取得成本目前預期約占總支出的 40% 至 45%。第二大項約占總額的 25%,預期來自我們持續投入數位科技轉型(其中絕大部分預期將隨時間獲得補償)以及企業系統。其餘部分為自有與租賃飯店的整修相關支出,以及其他投資活動。

  • Our capital allocation philosophy has not changed. We are committed to our investment-grade rating and investing in growth that is accretive to shareholder value. Excess capital is returned to shareholders through a combination of share repurchases and a modest cash dividend, which has risen meaningfully over time. We now expect to return over $4.5 billion to shareholders in 2026. Full year guidance details for the third quarter and the full year are in the press release.

    我們的資本配置理念沒有改變。我們致力於維持投資級評等,並投資於能增厚股東價值的成長。多餘資本將透過股票回購與適度的現金股利組合返還給股東,而現金股利隨時間已顯著提高。我們目前預期在 2026 年向股東返還超過 45 億美元。第三季與全年之全年指引細節已載於新聞稿中。

  • Tony and I are now happy to take your questions. Operator?

    Tony 和我現在很高興回答各位的問題。接線員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Shaun Kelly, Bank of America.

    美國銀行 Shaun Kelly。

  • Shaun Kelley - Analyst

    Shaun Kelley - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking my question. Tony and Jen, just wondering if we could dig in a little bit on some of the commentary around the kind of the owner reinvestment here. For Tony, if you could just talk a little bit about especially the new ITR program, sort of what kind of in your mind, are you thinking about just trying to kind of get across to owners through this?

    嗨,大家早安,謝謝讓我提問。Tony 和 Jen,我想再深入一點了解你們對於業主再投資方面的一些評論。Tony,能否談談特別是新的 ITR 計畫,你心中希望透過這個計畫向業主傳達什麼?

  • Any feedback you've had thus far? And then, Jen, if you could just elaborate a little bit on kind of the timing of how this may flow through. It sounds like maybe a partial year impact that's starting to be factored in here in the owned and leased line, but maybe help us think a little bit more holistically as we look out at our models beyond 2026. Thanks.

    到目前為止你們收到哪些回饋?另外,Jen,能否再多說明一下這可能在時間上如何反映?聽起來在自有與租賃項目中,可能已開始納入部分年度影響,但也請協助我們更全面地思考,當我們在 2026 年之後建模時應如何看待。謝謝。

  • Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks for the question, Shaun. As I think you know, we're deeply appreciative of the engagement we've had with our owners. We have, for as long as I've been around certainly and probably decades before that, believe that our success and our owners' success is inexorably linked. Our owners are foundational to our business and the health and owner of that owner and franchisee community is of paramount importance, and it's always a big focus area for us.

    謝謝你的提問,Shaun。如你所知,我們非常感謝與業主之間的互動與投入。至少在我任內一直如此,甚至在此之前數十年,我們都相信我們的成功與業主的成功密不可分。業主是我們業務的基石,而業主與加盟商社群的健全與活力至關重要,這一直是我們高度聚焦的領域。

  • That long-standing recognition leads to regular constructive discussions with that community on a whole range of issues, sometimes and most of the time, proactively and sometimes reactively. But that's reflective of the way we approach the business broadly and the way we approach the partnership.

    這項長期的認知,使我們與該社群就各式各樣的議題進行定期且具建設性的討論,多數時候是主動的,有時也會是因應式的。但這反映了我們整體經營業務的方式,以及我們看待合作夥伴關係的方式。

  • We're very focused on hotel level economics. And that really means looking at every variable in the equation and looking for opportunities both to drive improvement in top line and look at every element of expenses and see if there are opportunities to drive margins and as a result, ultimately drive returns. I think the ITR incentive that Jen talked about in her prepared remarks is just one step in that process to both look for opportunities to improve owner economics. And as Jen said, an ITR incentive, I think, benefits all the constituents we serve.

    我們非常專注於飯店層級的經濟效益。這意味著檢視方程式中的每一個變數,尋找提升營收端的機會,同時檢視費用的每一個要素,看看是否有機會推動利潤率,進而最終提升報酬。我認為 Jen 在事先準備的發言中提到的 ITR 獎勵,只是這個流程中的一步,用以尋找改善業主經濟效益的機會。而如 Jen 所說,我認為 ITR 獎勵能讓我們服務的所有利害關係人受益。

  • Jennifer Mason - Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jennifer Mason - Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. And Shaun, a bit of a follow-up on your question. We are launching the ITR incentive this week to our owners. It's up to 50 basis points of gross room revenue, fee reimbursement for achieving defined ITR thresholds. And so that will start to be baked in for the back half of the year. As a reminder, though, there's multiple things impacting our owned, leased and other revenue, as I talked about in my prepared remarks. We also have the timing of renovations at large hotels, media network, the litigation accrual and the sale of a US hotel asset.

    是的。Shaun,針對你的問題再補充一下。我們本週將向業主推出 ITR 獎勵。若達成既定 ITR 門檻,最高可獲得相當於總客房收入 50 個基點的費用補償。因此,這將開始在今年下半年逐步反映。不過提醒一下,如我在事先準備的發言中提到的,我們的自有、租賃及其他收入同時也受到多項因素影響。我們也有大型飯店整修的時點、媒體網路、訴訟應計,以及出售一項美國飯店資產。

  • Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you both.

    謝謝你們兩位。

  • Jennifer Mason - Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jennifer Mason - Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Sean.

    謝謝,Sean。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stephen Grambling, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利 Stephen Grambling。

  • Stephen Grambling - Analyst

    Stephen Grambling - Analyst

  • Hey, thank you maybe another follow-up just on the co-brand side. Just wondering if there's anything that investors should be thinking about in terms of how that will ramp over time? And also if there's any changes to the agreement as we think about either new cards being launched, new geographies or other factors that may be different versus prior agreements? Thank you.

    嗨,謝謝。我想再追問一下聯名卡(co-brand)方面。想請教投資人是否需要考量它隨時間推進的爬坡方式?另外,當我們思考新卡推出、新市場/地區或其他因素時,協議內容是否有任何變更,與先前協議相比有哪些不同?謝謝。

  • Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Great. Thank you, Stephen. The -- as Jen said, the $30 million number she referenced, that is solely from the new credit card terms for the balance of this year. The full benefit to the program is really expected to build over time as new and refreshed card products are introduced. Our experience in the past is the development and introduction of those new cards take several quarters.

    好的,很好。謝謝你,Stephen。如 Jen 所說,她提到的 3,000 萬美元數字,僅來自今年剩餘期間新信用卡條款的影響。該計畫的完整效益預期將隨著新卡與更新卡產品的推出而逐步累積。我們過去的經驗是,這些新卡的開發與推出需要好幾個季度。

  • But I think the way you should be thinking about it is by full year 2028, the impact on Marriott's co-brand card fees from these new deals could be somewhere between $100 million and $125 million at our current royalty rate of 26%.

    但我認為你應該這樣看待:到 2028 年全年,依我們目前 26% 的權利金率,這些新交易對萬豪聯名卡費用的影響可能介於 1 億美元至 1.25 億美元之間。

  • Jennifer Mason - Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jennifer Mason - Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. And I would just add a reminder that the majority of the benefits do go into our loyalty program that benefits owners and guests and our loyalty program members.

    是的。我也想補充提醒,多數效益會投入到我們的忠誠計畫中,讓業主、旅客以及我們的忠誠計畫會員受益。

  • Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Great. Thank you so much to jump back in the queue.

    很好。非常感謝,我再回到排隊序列。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Trey Bowers, Wells Fargo.

    富國銀行 Trey Bowers。

  • Trey Bowers - Analyst

    Trey Bowers - Analyst

  • Hey, guys. Just a bit of a modeling question for the balance of the year. As I look at the new fee revenue growth, about $60 million higher than where it was before. Just the credit card fee and the branded license fee alone kind of explain a lot of that increase, especially with a nice beat in Q2. So is this just conservatism? Or is there any kind of offsets to fees we should think about for the balance of the year?

    嗨,各位。這是一個關於今年剩餘期間的建模問題。我看新的費用收入成長,比之前高出約 6,000 萬美元。單就信用卡費用與品牌授權費,似乎就能解釋這個增幅的大部分,尤其是第二季表現不錯。所以這只是保守估計嗎?或者在今年剩餘期間,費用端是否有任何我們應該考量的抵銷因素?

  • Jennifer Mason - Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jennifer Mason - Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. So a few things. As a reminder on the credit card fees, we have the new credit card deal of about $30 million, but we have some FX headwinds with our Japanese card because of the decline in the yen. And -- but the rest of the RevPAR pull-through, you see that in our beat. We do expect that Q4 RevPAR is a bit lower than Q3. I would say there are two primary drivers of that.

    是的。所以有幾點。提醒一下關於信用卡手續費,我們有一項新的信用卡合作案,約3,000萬美元,但由於日圓走貶,我們的日本卡業務面臨一些外匯逆風。而且——至於其餘的RevPAR(每可供出租客房收入)傳導效應,你可以在我們的優於預期表現中看到。我們確實預期第四季RevPAR會比第三季略低。我會說主要有兩個驅動因素。

  • First, we still see very strong global demand around the world other than the Middle East. But US and Canada does not benefit, obviously, from the World Cup in Q4. And the Middle East has a more significant impact in Q4 than it did in Q3. We are definitely seeing that when the conflict resolves, that business picks up quickly, but -- and we are seeing ramping occupancy impact.

    第一,除中東以外,我們仍看到全球各地需求非常強勁。但美國與加拿大在第四季顯然無法受惠於世界盃。而中東在第四季的影響比第三季更為顯著。我們確實看到,一旦衝突解決,業務會很快回升,但——我們也看到入住率爬升所帶來的影響。

  • The challenge in Q4 is that is by far the -- in the Middle East, that is the largest quarter for revenue. It's something like 35% of the Middle East full year revenue happens in Q4. And while we're expecting recovering occupancy, ADR is up against a very impactful Q4 of last year where we had multiple events that were compressing ADR.

    第四季的挑戰在於——在中東,第四季無疑是營收最大的季度。大概有35%的中東全年營收發生在第四季。而雖然我們預期入住率會復甦,但ADR(平均每日房價)將面臨去年第四季非常有影響力的高基期,當時有多個活動推升需求、壓縮供給,進而推高ADR。

  • Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Great. Thanks all.

    很好。謝謝各位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Bellisario, Baird.

    Michael Bellisario,Baird。

  • Michael Bellisario - Analyst

    Michael Bellisario - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Just on the net rooms outlook, any initial thoughts on trends into '27? And then what's the recent feedback been from developers regarding their appetite to sign deals and put shovels in the ground now that the demand backdrop is a little bit more favorable today? Thanks.

    謝謝。各位早安。關於淨新增客房(net rooms)展望,對於到2027年的趨勢有沒有初步想法?另外,近期開發商的回饋如何——在目前需求背景稍微更有利的情況下,他們對於簽約以及現在就動工的意願如何?謝謝。

  • Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Great. Thanks for the question, Michael. The -- as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, the guide to the lower end of the range is largely driven by perhaps not terribly unanticipated project delays in the Middle East given the conflict. As we've talked about in prior calls, to me, looking at a multiyear CAGR on NUG is a little more instructive rather than a single quarter. And I'm quite encouraged by the 30-month CAGR of 5.2%, which is right in line with the broad guidance we've provided in the past about mid-single-digit growth.

    很好。謝謝你的問題,Michael。正如我們在事先準備的發言中提到的,指引落在區間下緣主要是因為中東在衝突影響下出現一些(可能並不太令人意外的)專案延遲。如同我們在先前的電話會議中談過的,我認為以多年期的NUG複合年成長率(CAGR)來看,比只看單一季度更具參考性。而我對30個月CAGR達5.2%感到相當鼓舞,這與我們過去提供的「中個位數成長」廣泛指引一致。

  • And then on the second part of your question on owner sentiment, I think the best illustration of owner sentiment, not that they are immune to some of the economic factors and headwinds that are out there, but we signed more deals in the first half of 2026, than in any first half of the year ever. And so I think that is a great testament to the confidence that the owner and franchisee community has investing in our portfolio of brands long term.

    至於你問題的第二部分、關於業主情緒,我認為最好的例證是:雖然他們並非不受外部經濟因素與逆風影響,但我們在2026年上半年簽下的合約數量,超過以往任何一年上半年。因此我認為這充分證明了業主與加盟商社群對於長期投資我們品牌組合的信心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dan Politzer, JPMorgan.

    Dan Politzer,JPMorgan。

  • Dan Politzer - Analyst

    Dan Politzer - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for the question. I wanted to touch on the investment spend. I think it ticked up a few hundred million. And I think in the prepared remarks, you mentioned the contract acquisition cost and digital tech transformation. I guess a couple of things there. Can you maybe unpack the trends that you are seeing in terms of the key money front? And then in terms of the digital tech transformation, I guess, what inning are we in? And going forward, how should we think about that net investment spend in the next couple of years?

    嗨,各位早安。謝謝讓我提問。我想談一下投資支出。我記得它增加了幾億美元。而且在事先準備的發言中,你們提到合約取得成本以及數位科技轉型。我想就這兩點問幾個問題。你能否拆解一下你們在「key money」方面看到的趨勢?另外就數位科技轉型而言,我們目前進行到第幾局(哪個階段)?往前看,未來幾年我們應該如何看待這項淨投資支出?

  • Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Great. Thank you. The competitive environment gets more and more fierce. Whether we like it or not, key money seems to be the weapon of choice in many of those competitive circumstances. I think for Marriott, nearly 40% of our pipeline rooms are in the top 2 quality tiers, luxury and full service, which tend to have more key money, but in parallel, generate much higher fees and value. Maybe the one emerging trend, we are seeing some small amounts of key money being used in some of our newer mid-scale brands as we prove out the value proposition for those brands. And the momentum we're seeing is really encouraging to us.

    很好。謝謝。競爭環境愈來愈激烈。不管我們喜不喜歡,在許多競爭情境下,key money 似乎成了首選武器。以萬豪而言,我們在建管線(pipeline)客房中,將近40%位於品質最高的兩個層級——奢華與全服務——這些通常需要較多key money,但同時也能帶來更高的費用收入與價值。或許有一個新興趨勢是:我們看到在一些較新的中階(mid-scale)品牌上,也開始使用少量key money,以驗證這些品牌的價值主張。而我們看到的動能確實讓我們很受鼓舞。

  • And then maybe the only other comment I would make from a trend -- a broader trend perspective, if you compare back to 2019, of course, the proportion and the absolute money of key money is up, which you would expect given the growth of the system size, but we are using less key money per signed deal. And this is anecdotal. But when we review transactions in our development committees, it feels like we are able to negotiate a bit less key money than some of our peers are offering, which I think is reflective of the strength and performance of the brands in the portfolio.

    另外,若從更廣泛的趨勢角度來看,若與2019年相比,當然key money的占比與絕對金額都上升了——考量系統規模成長,這是可預期的——但我們每簽下一筆合約所使用的key money反而更少。這是一些軼事觀察。但當我們在開發委員會審視交易時,感覺我們能談到比部分同業所提供的更少key money,我認為這反映了我們品牌組合的強度與表現。

  • Jennifer Mason - Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jennifer Mason - Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, and I'll take your next two questions. On DTT, we're making excellent progress. We're still in the early phases of deployment. We have over 2,000 select service in US Canada hotels that have transitioned. And as you think about your third question in terms of what to expect for investment spending going forward, obviously, we're too early to talk about 2027, but maybe a little bit of color on each of the buckets.

    好的,我來回答你接下來兩個問題。關於DTT(數位科技轉型),我們進展非常好。我們仍處於部署的早期階段。在美國與加拿大,已有超過2,000家精選服務(select service)飯店完成轉換。至於你第三個問題、未來投資支出該如何預期,顯然現在談2027年還太早,但我可以就各個支出桶(類別)提供一些補充說明。

  • On tech and DTT spend, that over time will go down, but we will continue to invest in technology given the critical importance that it has in our business. Key money, as Tony talked about, as our system rises, right, you're likely to see key money grow with that. And owned, leased and other is the next big category. We're never done with owned, leased, right? We're renovating hotels, and we have others that are there. So just big picture, that's where we are.

    在科技與DTT支出方面,隨著時間推進會下降,但鑑於科技對我們業務的關鍵重要性,我們仍會持續投資科技。至於key money,如Tony所說,隨著我們的系統規模擴大,你很可能會看到key money也隨之成長。而自有、租賃及其他(owned, leased and other)是下一個大類別。我們在自有、租賃方面永遠不會「做完」,對吧?我們會翻新飯店,也還有其他項目在進行。所以從大方向來看,我們目前就是這樣的狀況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lizzie Dove, Goldman Sachs.

    Lizzie Dove,Goldman Sachs。

  • Lizzie Dove - Analyst

    Lizzie Dove - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Thinking about the US. I'm curious kind of how you're thinking about the rest of the year in terms of group versus business and leisure. And I suppose even longer term, we heard from one of your peers some building blocks in terms of how to think about 2027 RevPAR. I appreciate it's early, but anything you'd share in terms of how you're thinking about that longer term?

    嗨,早安。謝謝讓我提問。談到美國市場。我想了解你們如何看待今年剩餘時間在團體(group)相較於商務與休閒(business and leisure)方面的走勢。另外更長期來看,我們聽到你們某位同業分享了一些用來思考2027年RevPAR的組成要素。我知道現在還早,但你們是否願意分享一下對更長期的看法?

  • Jennifer Mason - Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jennifer Mason - Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, so I'll start with '26, and then Tony will jump in on '27. So we continue to expect all segments to be up for the full year with leisure continuing to lead, followed by group and then BT. So think about similar trends to what we saw in Q2. Leisure has been especially strong, especially in the US but across all of our regions outside of the Middle East.

    好的,我先談2026年,接著Tony會補充2027年。我們仍預期全年所有客群都會成長,其中休閒將持續領先,其次是團體,然後是BT(商務旅遊)。因此可以把它想成與我們在第二季看到的趨勢相近。休閒表現特別強勁,尤其是在美國,但在除中東以外的所有區域也都是如此。

  • Full year group pace is up about 5%. That's the same as a quarter ago, but could moderate over the year given fewer in the year, for the year bookings. And then BT revenue, which was up 2% in Q2, we expect kind of similar for the rest of the year.

    全年集團進度約成長5%。這與一季前相同,但由於今年全年訂房的在手量較少,全年可能會有所放緩。接著是BT營收,第二季成長2%,我們預期今年剩餘期間大致會維持相近水準。

  • Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And then let me try to tackle '27, acknowledging it's a little early given that we're just starting work on '27 budgets and the ability to have great clarity is further compounded by the short transient booking window we see around the world. But with that said, we continue to be quite bullish on the global outlook. We could see continued strong global RevPAR growth next year.

    接著我試著談談'27年,先承認現在談還稍早,因為我們才剛開始著手'27年的預算,而要有很高的清晰度也更具挑戰,原因在於我們在全球看到的短期散客訂房窗口。但即便如此,我們仍然對全球前景相當樂觀。我們可能會在明年看到全球RevPAR持續強勁成長。

  • And I think the thing that's most encouraging is the broad-based strength we're seeing in both rate potential and demand. Both across chain scales and across geographies outside the Middle East. Now we will have the challenge of the comp of the World Cup next year. But I think the flip side of that coin is we could see strong year-over-year growth in EMEA as the Middle East recovers.

    我認為最令人鼓舞的是,我們在房價提升空間與需求兩方面都看到廣泛的強勢。不論是在各個連鎖等級,或是在中東以外的各個地區。當然,明年我們會面臨世界盃的比較基期挑戰。但另一方面,隨著中東復甦,我們可能會看到EMEA年對年強勁成長。

  • Lizzie Dove - Analyst

    Lizzie Dove - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • You're welcome.

    不客氣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Patrick Scholes, Truist Securities.

    Patrick Scholes,Truist Securities。

  • Patrick Scholes - Analyst

    Patrick Scholes - Analyst

  • Hi. Good morning, everyone. Thank you. A question, Tony, for you that I'm sure you and counsel are well prepared for. You certainly have alluded to a number of positive changes to currently and upcoming to help owners. But I'm wondering if you could give a specific official public response directly to that owner letter at this time. Thank you.

    嗨。各位早安。謝謝。Tony,我有個問題要問你,我相信你和法務顧問都已經準備得很充分。你確實提到了一些目前以及即將推出、用以協助業主的正面變革。但我想知道,你是否能在此刻針對那封業主來信,給出一個具體、正式且公開的回應?謝謝。

  • Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, yes, I'm not going to give an official response. That's a matter between us and our owners. But maybe I'll reiterate what I said earlier. The success and financial strength of our owner and franchisee community is closely tied to Marriott's success. Given our asset-light model, we continue to work every day to address issues, concerns and opportunities with the broad owner and franchisee community around the world. And those discussions have gone on for decades and will continue to go on for decades.

    嗯,是的,我不會給出正式回應。那是我們與業主之間的事。但我可以重申我先前說過的話。我們業主與加盟商社群的成功與財務實力,與萬豪的成功緊密相連。基於我們的輕資產模式,我們每天都持續與全球廣泛的業主與加盟商社群合作,處理議題、關切與機會。而這些討論已經持續了數十年,也將繼續持續數十年。

  • The letter that we received, I think, is reflective of the passion and commitment that, that group of owners has to the relationship and to -- and is an acknowledgment of that linkage between our mutual success. And we have had a number of meetings already with that group, continue to have those discussions and are encouraged with the progress we're making.

    我認為我們收到的那封信,反映了那一群業主對這段關係的熱情與投入,並且——也可視為對我們彼此成功之間連結的認同。我們已經與該團體進行了多次會議,也會持續進行這些討論,並且對我們正在取得的進展感到鼓舞。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Katz, Jefferies.

    David Katz,Jefferies。

  • David Katz - Analyst

    David Katz - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Along the same lines, one of the conversations we've been having, and I think to the degree that you can discuss it here is helpful are the ongoing updates and/or changes within platform fees or reimbursed elements versus what you've talked about taking on some of your own P&L, right? I assume that there's ongoing evolution in both of those. And I think, frankly, just understanding how much you're doing that passes through versus how much you're taking on. Again, if you can discuss it here, it would be, I think, helpful or instructive for everybody.

    嗨,早安。謝謝讓我提問。沿著同樣的方向,我們一直在討論的一個議題是——在你們能在此談到的範圍內會很有幫助——平台費用或可報銷項目的持續更新和/或變更,相對於你們提到要把部分成本納入你們自己的損益表(P&L),對吧?我想這兩者都在持續演進。坦白說,我們想了解的是:有多少是過手(pass-through),又有多少是你們自行承擔。同樣地,如果你能在這裡談談,我想對大家會很有幫助或具啟發性。

  • Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure, David. Thanks for the question. The -- as I've said now a couple of times, the discussions are collaborative and constructive and ongoing. In terms of potential impact to the Marriott P&L, our guidance is reflective of our expectations of the impact of those discussions on Marriott's P&L going forward.

    當然,David。謝謝你的問題。如我已經提過幾次,這些討論是協作、具建設性且持續進行的。至於對萬豪損益表(P&L)的潛在影響,我們的指引已反映我們對這些討論未來對萬豪P&L影響的預期。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brandt Montour, Barclays.

    Brandt Montour,Barclays。

  • Brandt Montour - Analyst

    Brandt Montour - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So I want to circle back on net rooms growth. I know that the guidance update was related to the Middle East. But just sort of as it relates to '27 and the momentum that you have in conversions, we see contract acquisition costs coming up a little bit.

    早安。謝謝讓我提問。我想回到淨客房成長(net rooms growth)。我知道這次指引更新與中東有關。但就'27年以及你們在轉換(conversions)方面的動能而言,我們看到合約取得成本略有上升。

  • RevPAR in those middle chain scales where you've launched conversion brands, RevPAR has kind of flipped positively in a meaningful way. So the question is, is there any sort of countercyclicality or risk to net rooms growth as you see that segment do better on a fundamental basis and maybe those -- the brands and distribution are needed a little bit less on the margin by those hotel owners.

    在你們推出轉換品牌的那些中階連鎖等級中,RevPAR已經以相當明顯的幅度轉為正向。所以問題是:當你看到該細分市場在基本面上表現更好時,淨客房成長是否存在任何逆週期性或風險?也就是說,對那些飯店業主而言,邊際上可能較不需要這些品牌與通路分銷。

  • Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Brandt, I would actually respectfully say what we see and what we hear from the owner community is just the opposite. As they look at the impact of affiliation with our revenue engines and our loyalty platform and the impact that has on performance, we're actually seeing a strengthening in the interest. You look at the performance we've seen with platforms like Autograph and Tribute. I think that illustrates that the power of that affiliation continues to drive developer interest and that developer interest manifests itself in the strongest first half of the year of signings we've ever experienced.

    是的。Brandt,我必須恭敬地說,我們看到、也從業主社群聽到的其實正好相反。當他們看到與我們的營收引擎與忠誠平台結盟所帶來的影響,以及對績效的提升,我們反而看到興趣正在增強。你看看像Autograph和Tribute這些平台的表現。我認為這說明了這種結盟的力量持續推動開發商的興趣,而這份興趣也體現在:我們今年上半年簽約量創下歷來最強。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Duane Pfennigwerth, Evercore ISI.

    Duane Pfennigwerth,Evercore ISI。

  • Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

    Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

  • Hi, thank you. I understand the revised credit card agreements will build out with new products and new cards. But just in trying to get to the underlying run rate, can you confirm this is two full quarters or 6 months of impact here in 2026? And then relatedly, have you sized full year impact from the Middle East to both EBITDA and RevPAR?

    嗨,謝謝。我了解修訂後的信用卡協議會透過新產品與新卡片逐步擴展。但為了掌握底層的運行率(run rate),你能否確認:在2026年這裡反映的是兩個完整季度、也就是6個月的影響?另外相關地,你們是否已量化中東對全年EBITDA與RevPAR的影響?

  • Jennifer Mason - Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jennifer Mason - Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So on your first question, yes, the $30 million of incremental fees is for two quarters of 2026. I had mentioned before that we are seeing some headwinds from the Japanese cards because of the decline in the yen that somewhat impacts the overall credit card fees. In terms of the Middle East, we are now expecting the impact to our full year global RevPAR to be about 100 basis points.

    關於你的第一個問題,是的,新增的3,000萬美元費用是針對2026年的兩個季度。我先前提過,由於日圓走弱,日本卡片帶來一些逆風,這在某種程度上會影響整體信用卡費用。至於中東,我們目前預期其對全年全球RevPAR的影響約為100個基點。

  • Last quarter, we said between 100 and 125 basis points. So a bit better than our last guide. And as we talked about, those hotels are predominantly managed and certainly have an impact on our IMF, but that's all reflected in our updated guidance that we provided.

    上季我們說是100到125個基點。所以比我們上次的指引稍微好一些。而如我們所談到的,那些飯店主要是管理合約酒店,確實會影響我們的IMF,但這些都已反映在我們提供的最新指引中。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robin Farley, UBS.

    Robin Farley,UBS。

  • Robin Farley - Analyst

    Robin Farley - Analyst

  • Great, thanks. I wanted to ask about the conversions. You mentioned that signings in the quarter were about one-third, about 40% of openings. Should we think about conversions being a smaller or bigger percent of net unit growth when we think about next year and this year, kind of how that's trending as a percent of total? Thanks.

    很好,謝謝。我想問關於轉換(conversions)。你提到本季簽約中約三分之一,而開業中約40%是轉換。當我們思考明年與今年時,轉換在淨單位成長(net unit growth)中所占比重,應該視為變小還是變大?也就是它占總量的趨勢如何?謝謝。

  • Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. So thank you for the question, Rob. We've talked about this a few times. Maybe I'll reiterate some comments I've made in the past. Early in my career in development, you tended to see an ebb and flow when new build ramped up, conversions receded. When you found yourself in a softer economic environment where there was less new build activity, you saw conversions ramp up. I don't personally believe that will be the trend going forward. And I don't believe that for a few reasons.

    當然。Rob,謝謝你的問題。我們已經談過幾次。我再重申一些我過去的看法。在我早期的開發職涯中,你通常會看到一種此消彼長:當新建案加速時,轉換會回落。當你處於較疲弱的經濟環境、新建活動較少時,你會看到轉換增加。我個人不認為未來會延續這種趨勢。我之所以這麼認為,有幾個原因。

  • I think number one, from an approach perspective, in terms of the dedicated resources we've put in place around the world to chase both individual asset conversions and portfolio conversions in terms of the responsiveness on things like PIPs and time line to get them into the system. And when I look across the composition of the portfolio, I would submit to you, we've never had a stack of brands across quality tiers that are better suited to conversions than what we have today.

    我認為第一點,從方法論的角度來看,就我們在全球投入的專責資源而言,無論是推動單一資產轉換或投資組合轉換,在像是PIP與將其納入系統的時程反應速度方面。而當我檢視整個投資組合的組成時,我會向各位表示,我們從未擁有過一套橫跨各品質層級、比我們今天更適合做轉換的品牌組合。

  • And so it's a long-winded way of saying when you throw all of that into the blender, even when we find ourselves in a market where new build activity ramps up sharply, I don't think it's binary. I don't think that will be at the expense of conversions. I think the approach and the tools that we have in place today should drive conversion volume for the foreseeable future.

    所以用比較冗長的方式來說,當你把這些因素全部放進攪拌機裡,即使我們身處新建案活動急遽升溫的市場,我也不認為這是非黑即白的問題。我不認為那會以犧牲轉換為代價。我認為我們目前具備的方法與工具,應能在可預見的未來推動轉換量。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

    Conor Cunningham,Melius Research。

  • Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst

    Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst

  • Everyone, thank you. You've covered a lot today. But I was hoping you could talk a little bit about the growth on the international pipeline. I mean I totally understand the Middle East construction issue that you're facing. But are you seeing that linger like that impact at all in Asia? And maybe you could just talk a little bit about what you're seeing specifically in Asia and China just in terms of growth. Thank you.

    各位,謝謝。你們今天涵蓋了很多內容。但我希望你們能談談國際開發儲備(pipeline)的成長。我的意思是,我完全理解你們在中東面臨的施工問題。但你們是否看到這種影響在亞洲也持續存在?也許你們可以更具體談談你們在亞洲與中國看到的情況,就成長而言。謝謝。

  • Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. So the answer to your first question is we really aren't. I think in terms of business conditions, as we mentioned, the first month of the quarter, we saw a bit of a ripple impact in APEC as the load factors for some of the big Middle East carriers going into markets like India and the Maldives had some impact on operating performance, but the team pivoted quickly to focus on intra-region travel, and you saw really strong May and June across APEC.

    當然。所以你第一個問題的答案是:我們其實沒有看到。我認為就營運環境而言,如同我們提到的,本季第一個月,我們在APEC看到一些漣漪效應,因為部分大型中東航空公司飛往印度、馬爾地夫等市場的載客率,對營運表現造成一些影響;但團隊很快就轉向聚焦區域內旅遊,因此你在APEC看到5月與6月都非常強勁。

  • From a deal perspective, we continue to see very strong both MOU approvals and signings across both APEC and China. And I think one of the facets of our China growth that is particularly encouraging is the select brand momentum that we have. I mentioned in my prepared remarks, the launch of Series across China, which we think will generate something on the order of 100 incremental hotels starting with openings later this year. So really good news across the board in terms of development momentum in the Asia Pacific region.

    從交易角度來看,我們在APEC與中國的MOU核准與簽約都持續非常強勁。而我認為我們中國成長中特別令人鼓舞的一個面向,是我們精選品牌(select)的動能。我在事先準備的發言中提到,Series在中國的推出,我們認為將帶來約100家新增飯店,並從今年稍晚開始陸續開幕。因此,就亞太地區的開發動能而言,各方面都是好消息。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Aryeh Klein, BMO Capital Markets

    Aryeh Klein,BMO Capital Markets

  • Aryeh Klein - Analyst

    Aryeh Klein - Analyst

  • Thanks, and good morning. The luxury segment has continued to outperform. Did that segment benefit more from the World Cup than select service? And what's your view on just K-shape versus C-shaped more broadly? And do you think the high-end piece of the market can sustainably outperform?

    謝謝,早安。奢華(luxury)區隔持續表現優於其他。該區隔是否比精選服務(select service)更受惠於世界盃?以及你對更廣泛的K型走勢相對於C型走勢有何看法?你認為高端市場能否持續性地跑贏?

  • Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I think we saw the upside impact from World Cup across chain scales, which was really encouraging. Your opening comment is spot on. Despite rumors that eventually we're going to run out of steam in terms of luxury demand, the momentum that we continue to see and take advantage of given our industry-leading portfolio in luxury is really encouraging. To get to almost double-digit RevPAR growth in our luxury business in US and Canada is a great illustration of that continued strength.

    是的。我認為我們在各個連鎖等級(chain scales)都看到世界盃帶來的正面影響,這非常令人鼓舞。你開場的評論非常到位。儘管外界一直有傳言說奢華需求終究會失去動能,但鑑於我們在奢華領域擁有業界領先的投資組合,我們持續看到並把握的動能仍然非常令人振奮。我們在美國與加拿大的奢華業務幾乎達到雙位數的RevPAR成長,正是這種持續強勁的最佳例證。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Smedes Rose, Citi.

    Smedes Rose,Citi。

  • Smedes Rose - Analyst

    Smedes Rose - Analyst

  • Hi, thank you. I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit more about what you're seeing specifically in the group segment for 2027, if you could share revenue pace and if you're seeing just really for the US any kind of change in composition between kind of larger corporates booking, larger groups or if it's more sort of smaller business enterprises or kind of anything you can share on how that's shaping up for next year?

    嗨,謝謝。我想請你們再多談一點你們對2027年團體(group)區隔的具體觀察,若可以的話,能否分享營收進度(revenue pace);以及就美國而言,你們是否看到組成上有任何變化,例如較大型企業的預訂、較大型團體,或是更多偏向較小型的企業客戶等——任何你們能分享的、關於明年走勢如何成形的資訊?

  • Jennifer Mason - Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jennifer Mason - Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. So I'll start with '26, which we touched on briefly. It's a good group year. We have paced up 5% which is flat to a quarter ago. In the US specifically, pace is up about 6% versus 5% a quarter ago. To your question on 2027, as we look out, it looks flattish, rate up and room nights down slightly.

    當然。我先從我們稍早簡要提到的2026年開始。那會是團體表現不錯的一年。我們目前的進度上升了5%,與一季前持平。就美國而言,進度約上升6%,高於一季前的5%。至於你問的2027年,往外看目前大致持平,房價上升、間夜數(room nights)略為下降。

  • But just a reminder, right, as we sit here today, about 40% to 55% of the following year's group is usually on the books by midyear of the current year. So we still see, obviously, a lot of runway on group for 2027. And one other point I would just make is that we've seen a lot of strength in the select service space, and that definitely tends to book closer in.

    但提醒一下,對吧,以我們現在這個時間點來看,通常到當年度年中,下一年度的團體訂單大約有40%到55%會已經在帳上(on the books)。所以我們仍然看到2027年團體業務還有很大的成長空間。另外我還想補充一點:我們在精選服務領域看到很強的力道,而那一類通常會更接近入住日期才下訂。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We've reached our allotted time for questions. I'll now turn the call back to Tony Capuano.

    我們已到達分配的提問時間。我現在把電話會議交回給Tony Capuano。

  • Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Anthony Capuano - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Great. Well, thank you all again for your interest and your continued coverage. We appreciate all the effort and the thoughtful questions and look forward to talking to you a quarter from now. Have a great day.

    很好。再次感謝各位的關注以及持續的追蹤報導。我們感謝大家的投入與深思熟慮的提問,也期待在一季後再與各位交流。祝各位有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This does conclude today's program. You may now disconnect your lines. We appreciate your time and participation. Have a good day.

    謝謝。今天的節目到此結束。您現在可以掛斷電話。感謝您的時間與參與。祝您有美好的一天。