萬豪國際 (MAR) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome, everyone, joining today's Marriott International Q1 2026 earnings call.

各位好，歡迎大家參加今天的萬豪國際 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Please note, this call is being recorded. We are standing by if you should need any assistance. It is now my pleasure to turn the meeting over to Jackie McConafgha, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意，本次電話會議將被錄音。如您需要任何協助，我們將隨時待命。現在我很榮幸將會議交給投資人關係資深副總裁 Jackie McConafgha。請開始。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Marriott's first-quarter 2026 earnings call. On the call with me today are Tony Capuano, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Jen Mason, our new Executive Vice President, and Chief Financial Officer; and Pilar Fernandez, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

謝謝。各位早安，歡迎參加萬豪 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：我們的總裁暨執行長 Tony Capuano；我們新任執行副總裁暨財務長 Jen Mason；以及投資人關係資深總監 Pilar Fernandez。

Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments.

在開始之前，我想提醒各位，我們今天的許多評論並非歷史事實，依據聯邦證券法屬於前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受到我們在 SEC 申報文件中所述的眾多風險與不確定性影響，可能導致未來結果與我們評論中明示或暗示者出現重大差異。

Unless otherwise stated, our RevPAR, occupancy, average daily rate, and property level revenue comments reflect system-wide constant currency results for comparable hotels and all changes refer to year-over-year changes for the comparable period. Statements in our comments and the press release we issued earlier today are effective only today and will not be updated as actual events unfold. You can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks today on our Investor Relations website.

除非另有說明，我們對 RevPAR、住房率、平均每日房價（ADR）以及物業層級收入的評論，反映的是可比飯店之全系統固定匯率（constant currency）結果；所有變動均指可比期間的年對年變動。我們在評論以及今日稍早發布的新聞稿中的陳述僅於今日有效，且不會隨實際事件發展而更新。您可在我們的投資人關係網站上找到本次財報新聞稿，以及我們今日談及之所有非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的調節表。

And now I will turn the call over to Tony.

現在我把電話交給 Tony。

Thanks, Jackie, and good morning, everyone. We reported excellent first-quarter performance this morning with RevPAR and financial results above the top end of our guidance ranges. Development activity remained robust with record first-quarter global signings and net rooms growth of 4.5% over the trailing 12 months through March. First-quarter global RevPAR rose 4.2%. RevPAR in the US and Canada region rose 4%. Luxury and resort hotels continued to lead in the region, though strength was broad-based across segments and chain scales. While luxury RevPAR rose nearly 7%, select service RevPAR increased 3.5%, a meaningful improvement from the fourth-quarter when select service was down more than 1% year-over-year.

謝謝 Jackie，各位早安。今天早上我們公布了非常出色的第一季表現，RevPAR 與財務結果均高於我們指引區間的上緣。開發活動依然強勁，第一季全球簽約量創下歷史新高，且截至 3 月、過去 12 個月的淨客房成長達 4.5%。第一季全球 RevPAR 上升 4.2%。美國與加拿大地區 RevPAR 上升 4%。該地區仍由奢華與度假型飯店領先，但各細分市場與各連鎖等級皆呈現廣泛走強。奢華 RevPAR 上升近 7%，而精選服務（select service）RevPAR 增加 3.5%，相較第四季精選服務年對年下滑逾 1% 有顯著改善。

While the conflict in the Middle East weighed on results in March, first-quarter international RevPAR increased 4.6%. First-quarter RevPAR in APAC rose over 7%, driven by strong ADR growth and an increase in demand from Chinese guests. Beginning in March, Middle East travel corridor disruption started to impact select APAC markets, including India and the Maldives. In Greater China, our hotels continued to gain market share and stronger leisure demand drove first-quarter RevPAR up nearly 6%. RevPAR growth was led by Hong Kong and Hainan Island, which were both up around 20% year-over-year on the back of very strong ADR growth.

雖然中東衝突在 3 月對業績造成壓力，第一季國際 RevPAR 仍增加 4.6%。亞太（APAC）第一季 RevPAR 上升逾 7%，主要由強勁的 ADR 成長以及來自中國旅客的需求增加所帶動。自 3 月起，中東旅遊走廊的中斷開始影響部分亞太市場，包括印度與馬爾地夫。在大中華區，我們的飯店持續提升市占率，且更強勁的休閒需求帶動第一季 RevPAR 上升近 6%。RevPAR 成長由香港與海南島領先，兩地年對年均上升約 20%，主要受非常強勁的 ADR 成長帶動。

RevPAR in CALA rose 2%, led by record leisure results in the Caribbean, partially offset by a decline in RevPAR at Mexican luxury resorts. first-quarter RevPAR in EMEA increased over 3% with increases in Europe and Africa, partially offset by a decline in the Middle East. In March, RevPAR in the Middle East declined over 30%, while RevPAR in Europe rose 4% as the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on European markets was relatively minimal and largely contained to countries near the Middle East, such as Cyprus and Azerbaijan.

加勒比與拉丁美洲（CALA）RevPAR 上升 2%，由加勒比海創紀錄的休閒表現帶動，但部分被墨西哥奢華度假村 RevPAR 下滑所抵銷。歐洲、中東與非洲（EMEA）第一季 RevPAR 增加逾 3%，其中歐洲與非洲上升，部分被中東下滑所抵銷。3 月中東 RevPAR 下滑逾 30%，而歐洲 RevPAR 上升 4%；由於中東衝突對歐洲市場的影響相對有限，且大多侷限於靠近中東的國家，例如賽普勒斯與亞塞拜然。

Since day one of the conflict, our top priority has been the safety of our associates and our guests. While we expect continued volatility and ongoing impact from the conflict, particularly at our Middle East hotels, looking ahead, as Jen will discuss further, we are raising our full year global RevPAR guidance and now expect growth of 2% to 3%.

自衝突爆發第一天起，我們的首要任務一直是同仁與賓客的安全。雖然我們預期仍將持續波動並受到衝突的持續影響，特別是在我們的中東飯店，但展望未來，正如 Jen 稍後將進一步說明，我們上調全年全球 RevPAR 指引，現預期成長 2% 至 3%。

Now let's turn to results by customer segment. In the first-quarter, leisure RevPAR rose 6% globally and 5% in the US and Canada. Group RevPAR rose 5%, both globally and in the US and Canada. And first-quarter business transient RevPAR rose 1% globally and 2% in the US and Canada, with mid-single-digit declines in government room nights and slight declines in other BT room nights, partially offset by higher ADR.

接著看各客群的表現。第一季全球休閒 RevPAR 上升 6%，美國與加拿大上升 5%。團體（Group）RevPAR 全球與美國及加拿大均上升 5%。第一季商務散客（business transient，BT）RevPAR 全球上升 1%，美國與加拿大上升 2%；其中政府客房晚數出現中個位數下滑，其他 BT 客房晚數亦小幅下滑，但部分被較高的 ADR 所抵銷。

We remain focused on steadily expanding our industry-leading portfolio and presence to reach new markets and new travellers worldwide. Global signings are off to an excellent start this year with first-quarter deal signings up 9% year-over-year. Key recent multiunit deals signed include another agreement with Sun Group to add 10 hotels across 8 brands in Vietnam over the next few years.

我們仍專注於穩健擴大我們業界領先的產品組合與據點，以觸及全球新市場與新旅客。今年全球簽約開局極佳，第一季簽約案量年對年增加 9%。近期簽署的重要多店（multiunit）交易包括與 Sun Group 再度簽訂協議，未來幾年將在越南跨 8 個品牌新增 10 家飯店。

We also signed deals to bring our regionally rooted collection brand, Series by Marriott, to Europe, signing six projects in Italy and five in the United Kingdom. Additionally, we announced that Lefay, our first brand dedicated exclusively to luxury wellness is expected to enter our portfolio later this year.

我們也簽署協議，將我們具區域在地特色的精選系列品牌「Series by Marriott」引進歐洲，在義大利簽下 6 個專案、在英國簽下 5 個專案。此外，我們宣布 Lefay——我們首個專注於奢華健康（luxury wellness）的專屬品牌——預計將於今年稍晚納入我們的產品組合。

Our global pipeline rose over 5% year-over-year to a new record of nearly 618,000 rooms at the end of the quarter, with 43% of pipeline rooms under construction, including rooms that are pending conversion. Marriott has more rooms in its pipeline and more pipeline rooms under construction than any other global lodging company.

截至本季末，我們的全球開發管線年對年成長逾 5%，創下新高，接近 618,000 間客房；其中 43% 的管線客房已在施工中，包含待轉換（pending conversion）的客房。萬豪的管線客房數量以及施工中的管線客房數量，均高於任何其他全球住宿業公司。

Conversions, including multiunit deals, remain a significant driver of growth, representing over 35% of signings and over 40% of openings in the quarter. With our growing pipeline and strong momentum in conversions, we still expect net rooms growth between 4.5% and 5%, including our typical assumption of between 1% and 1.5% room deletions.

轉換（conversion）——包含多店交易——仍是重要的成長動能，本季占簽約量逾 35%，占開業量逾 40%。在管線持續成長與轉換動能強勁的帶動下，我們仍預期淨客房成長介於 4.5% 至 5%，其中包含我們一貫假設的 1% 至 1.5% 客房刪減。

Our powerful industry-leading Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program had nearly 283 million members at the end of March. As we focus on enhancing engagement with our members, we've continued to roll out new co-branded credit cards around the world. Today, we have 37 cards in 13 countries after recently launching cards in Indonesia and Brazil. Our scale, combined with strong engagement helps drive more direct bookings, more repeat stays, and value for owners across our worldwide system.

我們強大的業界領先 Marriott Bonvoy 忠誠計畫在 3 月底會員數接近 2.83 億。隨著我們專注提升會員互動，我們持續在全球推出新的聯名信用卡。目前我們在 13 個國家共有 37 張卡，近期也在印尼與巴西推出新卡。我們的規模結合高度互動，有助於帶動更多直接訂房、更多回訪入住，並為全球系統內的業主創造價值。

And our multiyear technology transformation is well underway. Just yesterday, we transitioned our 1,000 hotel over to our new tech ecosystem. Our new technology platforms automate multiple processes that used to be done manually and are expected to enhance owner returns while positioning our hotel associates to focus more time on quality of service to deliver on customer expectations.

我們為期多年的科技轉型也正順利推進。就在昨天，我們已將第 1,000 家飯店轉移至新的技術生態系。我們的新技術平台可自動化多項過去需人工處理的流程，預期能提升業主報酬，同時讓飯店同仁能投入更多時間在服務品質上，以滿足顧客期待。

We're also excited about increasingly leveraging AI across the company to assist our associates, serve our guests and drive results for our owners. Some examples are rolling out AI-powered desktop assistance at our customer engagement centers and using AI for guest pre-arrival communications.

我們也很期待在公司內部日益擴大運用 AI，以協助同仁、服務賓客並為業主帶來成果。例如，我們在顧客互動中心推出 AI 驅動的桌面助理，並運用 AI 進行賓客到店前的溝通。

As AI platforms continue to enrich the trip planning experience, we believe our unparalleled depth of inventory and global reach are significant competitive advantages. While it is early days for travel searching and planning in AI, we believe AI presents an exciting opportunity to connect directly and in a more personalized manner with our customers, and we're optimistic about the potential for AI to help strengthen our lower-cost direct booking channels.

隨著 AI 平台持續豐富旅程規劃體驗，我們相信我們無與倫比的庫存深度與全球觸及範圍是重要的競爭優勢。雖然以 AI 進行旅遊搜尋與規劃仍在早期階段，我們認為 AI 提供了一個令人振奮的機會，能更直接且更個人化地與顧客連結；我們也對 AI 有助於強化我們低成本的直接訂房通路之潛力保持樂觀。

We continue to optimize our content for Gen AI services and are working with multiple players across the space. We're also very excited about beginning a phased rollout of robust natural language search experience on marriott.com, and our app planned by the end of the second-quarter. This experience will leverage real-time inventory to respond to guest inquiries and help them explore our portfolio more easily from answering hotel-level questions to supporting multi-destination searches.

我們持續為生成式 AI（Gen AI）服務優化內容，並與該領域的多家業者合作。我們也非常期待在 marriott.com 以及我們的 App 上，於第二季末前開始分階段推出強大的自然語言搜尋體驗。此體驗將運用即時庫存回應賓客詢問，並協助他們更輕鬆探索我們的產品組合，從回答單一飯店層級問題到支援多目的地搜尋。

Before I end my prepared remarks, I want to express my sincere admiration and gratitude to all of our associates around the world for their hard work and dedication with a special thanks and recognition for those who have been impacted by the conflict in the Middle East.

在結束我預先準備的發言之前，我想向全球所有同仁表達由衷的敬佩與感謝，感謝大家的辛勤付出與投入；並特別向受到中東衝突影響的同仁致上謝意與肯定。

And now I will turn the call over to Jen for more details on our financial results. Jen?

現在我把電話交給 Jen，請她就我們的財務結果提供更多細節。Jen？

Thank you, Tony. Very happy and honoured to be here with you all this morning. While I have listened to over 130 earnings calls over my 33 years with Marriott, this is, of course, my first time on the call as CFO. I will start by reviewing our strong first-quarter results.

謝謝你，Tony。今天早上能與各位同在，我感到非常高興與榮幸。雖然在我於萬豪服務的 33 年中，我聽過超過 130 場財報電話會議，但這當然是我首次以財務長身分參與。我將先回顧我們強勁的第一季成果。

As Tony noted, global RevPAR rose 4.2%. First-quarter total gross fee revenues increased 12% year-over-year to $1.43 billion, reflecting higher RevPAR, rooms growth, a 37% increase in co-branded credit card fees and an over 70% increase in residential branding fees. Incentive management fees, or IMF, rose 9% to $222 million in the first-quarter, led by a 13% increase in the US and Canada.

如 Tony 所提，全球 RevPAR 上升 4.2%。第一季總毛費用收入（total gross fee revenues）年對年增加 12% 至 14.3 億美元，反映 RevPAR 提升、客房數成長、聯名信用卡費用增加 37%，以及住宅品牌授權費用增加逾 70%。第一季獎勵管理費（incentive management fees，IMF）上升 9% 至 2.22 億美元，其中以美國與加拿大年對年增加 13% 為主要帶動。

Owned leased and other revenue, net of owned leased and other expenses rose 21% due to higher termination fees and strong results at the Elegant Hotels in Barbados and certain other portfolio hotels. First-quarter G&A rose 5% year-over-year, primarily due to timing of compensation costs, partially offset by lower litigation expenses. Adjusted EBITDA increased 15% to $1.4 billion and adjusted diluted EPS rose 17% to $2.72.

自有、租賃及其他收入（扣除自有、租賃及其他費用）因解約費提高，以及巴貝多 Elegant Hotels 與投資組合中若干其他飯店表現強勁而成長 21%。第一季一般及行政（G&A）費用年增 5%，主要因薪酬成本認列時點所致，部分被訴訟費用下降所抵銷。調整後 EBITDA 成長 15% 至 14 億美元，調整後稀釋每股盈餘（EPS）上升 17% 至 2.72 美元。

Now let's talk about the outlook for quarter two and full year. For the full year, we now expect 2% to 3% global RevPAR growth. This outlook incorporates our out-performance in the first-quarter as well as higher than previously anticipated RevPAR growth in the US and Canada, with the strength seen across chain scales in the first-quarter continuing into April. We are also raising our outlook in Greater China, where we now expect full year RevPAR growth in the low single-digit range, primarily reflecting strong first-quarter performance.

接下來談第二季與全年展望。就全年而言，我們目前預期全球 RevPAR 成長 2% 至 3%。此展望納入我們第一季的超預期表現，以及美國與加拿大 RevPAR 成長高於先前預期；第一季在各品牌層級所見的強勁動能延續至 4 月。我們也上調大中華區展望，目前預期全年 RevPAR 以低個位數成長為主，主要反映第一季表現強勁。

We expect lower than previously anticipated RevPAR growth in the near term in APAC, driven by softer long-haul demand into certain markets that rely on golf hub connectivity. Additionally, we are slightly reducing our outlook versus prior expectations in CALA for the rest of the year, primarily due to Mexico.

我們預期亞太（APAC）短期 RevPAR 成長將低於先前預期，主因部分仰賴高爾夫樞紐航線連結的市場，長程需求轉弱。此外，我們也將今年其餘期間對加勒比與拉丁美洲（CALA）的展望較先前預期略為下調，主要因墨西哥所致。

Turning to EMEA. We assume that air capacity and travel sentiment will continue to be impacted, particularly in the Middle East through the end of the year. As a reminder, the Middle East accounts for 3% of open rooms, 7% of pipeline rooms and for full year 2025, 3% of global gross speeds. We are lowering our RevPAR outlook in EMEA, reflecting continued year-over-year declines in our Middle East properties with the most severe decline expected to occur in the second-quarter. Our guidance assumes the conflict in the Middle East could impact full year global RevPAR growth by 100 to 125 basis points.

再來看歐洲、中東與非洲（EMEA）。我們假設航空運能與旅遊情緒將持續受到影響，尤其是中東地區，並延續至年底。提醒一下，中東占已開業客房的 3%、在建/簽約管線客房的 7%，以及 2025 全年全球總開業速度的 3%。我們下調 EMEA 的 RevPAR 展望，反映中東物業持續出現年對年下滑，且預期第二季跌幅最為嚴重。我們的指引假設中東衝突可能使全年全球 RevPAR 成長降低 100 至 125 個基點。

Finally, I'll note that the World Cup is still expected to add 30 to 35 basis points to global RevPAR growth this year. We are raising our 2026 gross fee guidance to $5.93 billion to $5.99 billion, up 9% to 10%. IMFs are expected to be around flat year-over-year as outperformance in the first-quarter is expected to be offset by year-over-year IMF declines in the Middle East in the last three quarters of the year. The sensitivity of 1- percentage-point in full year 2026 RevPAR versus 2025 could be around $55 million to $65 million in RevPAR-related fees.

最後補充，世界盃今年仍預期可為全球 RevPAR 成長貢獻 30 至 35 個基點。我們將 2026 年總費用（gross fee）指引上調至 59.3 億至 59.9 億美元，年增 9% 至 10%。獎勵管理費（IMF）預期年對年大致持平，因第一季的超預期表現預計將被今年後三季中東 IMF 年對年下滑所抵銷。若 2026 全年 RevPAR 相較 2025 變動 1 個百分點，其對 RevPAR 相關費用的敏感度約為 5,500 萬至 6,500 萬美元。

Co-branded credit card fees are still expected to increase around 35%. As you know, this does not include any impact from new deals in the United States. Our discussions with Visa, Chase and American Express are going well, and we still expect to have new deals in place later this year. Full year residential branding fees are now expected to increase around 45% to 50%. Timeshare fees are still expected to be relatively in line with prior year at $110 million to $115 million.

聯名信用卡費用仍預期增加約 35%。如各位所知，這不包含美國新合約的任何影響。我們與 Visa、Chase 及 American Express 的討論進展順利，仍預期今年稍晚可敲定新合約。全年住宅品牌授權費目前預期增加約 45% 至 50%。分時度假（timeshare）費用仍預期與前一年大致相當，約 1.10 億至 1.15 億美元。

Owned leased and other revenue, net of owned leased and other expenses is now expected to total $215 million to $225 million. Results are expected to be impacted by renovations at certain large hotels in the portfolio, including W Barcelona and the Frankfurt Marriott as well as the expected sale later this quarter of a long-held hotel in the United States that will stay in the portfolio under a new long-term management agreement.

自有、租賃及其他收入（扣除自有、租賃及其他費用）目前預期合計為 2.15 億至 2.25 億美元。業績預期將受到投資組合中若干大型飯店整修影響，包括 W Barcelona 與 Frankfurt Marriott；以及預期本季稍晚出售一間在美國長期持有的飯店，該飯店將在新的長期管理合約下繼續留在投資組合中。

2026 G&A expense is anticipated to increase just 1% to 3% compared to 2025 levels as year-over-year comparisons are expected to benefit from timing later this year, particularly in the fourth-quarter. Full year adjusted EBITDA could increase 9% to 11% to roughly $5.88 billion to $5.97 billion. Our 2026 adjusted effective tax rate is expected to remain between 26% and 26.5%. Our underlying core tax rate is anticipated to remain in the low 20% range. Strong adjusted EBITDA growth, together with meaningful reduction in share count is expected to result in full year adjusted diluted EPS of $11.38 to $11.63, representing growth of 14% to 16%.

2026 年 G&A 費用預期僅較 2025 年增加 1% 至 3%，因年對年比較預期將受惠於今年稍晚的時點因素，尤其在第四季。全年調整後 EBITDA 可能成長 9% 至 11%，至約 58.8 億至 59.7 億美元。我們預期 2026 年調整後有效稅率維持在 26% 至 26.5% 之間；核心基礎稅率預期維持在 20% 出頭的區間。強勁的調整後 EBITDA 成長，加上股數顯著下降，預期將帶動全年調整後稀釋 EPS 達 11.38 至 11.63 美元，年增 14% 至 16%。

In the second-quarter, global RevPAR is expected to increase 1.5% to 2.5% and gross fees are expected to rise 10% to 11%. Credit card fees and residential branding fees are both expected to be up meaningfully with residential branding fees anticipated to more than double. Second-quarter IMFs are expected to be down in the mid-single-digit range, driven by significant declines in the Middle East. Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase 8% to 10%, driven by higher fees with a decline in owned leased and other net and a mid- to high single-digit increase in G&A due to timing of certain compensation expenses.

第二季全球 RevPAR 預期成長 1.5% 至 2.5%，總費用預期上升 10% 至 11%。信用卡費用與住宅品牌授權費皆預期顯著成長，其中住宅品牌授權費預期將增加逾一倍。第二季 IMF 預期下滑中個位數百分比，主要受中東大幅下滑所拖累。第二季調整後 EBITDA 預期成長 8% 至 10%，由費用增加所帶動，但自有、租賃及其他淨額下滑，以及因部分薪酬費用認列時點因素導致 G&A 中到高個位數成長，將形成抵銷。

We now expect 2026 investment spending to be around $1.05 billion to $1.15 billion, an increase versus our prior expectations, primarily due to an anticipated investment in Lefay. Investment in our contracts are still expected to be around 35% to 40% of the total spending. The second largest bucket at around 30% to 35% of the total is expected to come from continuing spend in our digital tech transformation, the overwhelming portion of which is expected to be reimbursed over time as well as other corporate systems. The rest is spending related to renovations at owned leased hotels as well as other investing activities.

我們目前預期 2026 年投資支出約 10.5 億至 11.5 億美元，較先前預期增加，主要因預期對 Lefay 的投資。我們對合約相關投資仍預期約占總支出的 35% 至 40%。第二大項目約占 30% 至 35%，預期來自持續投入數位科技轉型（其中絕大部分預期將隨時間獲得補償）以及其他企業系統。其餘則為自有/租賃飯店整修及其他投資活動相關支出。

Our capital allocation philosophy has not changed. We are committed to our investment-grade rating and investing in growth that is accretive to shareholder value. Excess capital is returned to shareholders through a combination of share repurchases and a modest cash dividend, which has risen meaningfully over time. We now expect to return over $4.4 billion to shareholders in 2026. Full guidance details in the second-quarter and for the full year are in the press release.

我們的資本配置理念並未改變。我們致力維持投資級評等，並投資於能增厚股東價值的成長。多餘資本將透過股票回購與適度的現金股利回饋股東，而股利隨時間已顯著提高。我們目前預期 2026 年將回饋股東超過 44 億美元。第二季與全年完整指引細節已載於新聞稿。

Tony and I are now happy to take your questions. Operator?

Tony 和我現在很樂意回答各位的問題。接線員？

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Shaun Kelley, Bank of America.

Shaun Kelley，美國銀行。

Welcome, Jen. Nice to hear you on here. Look forward to working with you.

歡迎你，Jen。很高興在這裡聽到你的聲音。期待與你合作。

Thank you, Shaun.

謝謝你，Shaun。

So Tony, batting leadoff here, I think it would be really helpful to just unpack a little bit about what you're seeing on US trends to date. Obviously, a big resurgence of activity. I think you called out the low end. But could you just walk us around a little bit whether it's the segment components that you talked about, what do you think is driving the growth right now in the US? And what are you excited about based on what you're seeing kind of real time through April?

那 Tony，我先開個頭，我覺得如果能稍微拆解一下你們目前看到的美國趨勢會很有幫助。顯然活動大幅回升。我想你提到了低端市場。但你能否再帶我們多走一圈：不論是你提到的各細分構成，你認為目前美國成長的驅動因素是什麼？以及基於你們一路看到 4 月的即時情況，你最感到興奮的是哪些？

Thanks, Shaun. I think at a high level, obviously, really encouraged by the Q1 results globally, but in the US and Canada, in particular. April, we've seen continued strength across the US and Canada. And I think one of the things that's encouraging is it's really across segments, right? We talked in our prepared remarks about the continued strength in leisure. Group continues to be solid. And if you exclude government, business transient is pretty solid as well.

謝謝，Shaun。我想從較高層次來看，顯然我們對全球第一季的結果感到非常鼓舞，尤其是美國與加拿大。4 月我們看到美國與加拿大持續走強。我覺得令人振奮的一點是，這股強勁其實橫跨各個客群區隔。我們在事先準備的發言中提到休閒需求持續強勁；團體需求仍然穩健；而若排除政府需求，商務散客（business transient）也相當穩健。

We're also seeing strength across sectors, which I think is quite exciting to me. We have talked for the last number of quarters about the continued strength in luxury. But over the course of a quarter to go from relative weakness in the select service tiers to about 3.5% RevPAR growth in the first-quarter. I think it's a really, really encouraging sign about continued strength really across all the tiers where we operate.

我們也看到各產業別都呈現強勁，我覺得這點讓我相當興奮。過去幾季我們一直談到奢華市場持續強勁。但在一季之內，從精選服務（select service）層級的相對疲弱，轉為第一季約 3.5% 的 RevPAR 成長，我認為這是非常、非常令人鼓舞的訊號，顯示我們所營運的各個層級都持續走強。

And then lastly, I would say you heard Jen's comments about World Cup. And notwithstanding some of the things that we continue to hear in the press more broadly, we continue, at least across the Marriott portfolio to feel really good about that 30 to 35 bps of impact that Jen referenced.

最後我想說，你們也聽到 Jen 對世界盃的評論。儘管我們在更廣泛的媒體上仍持續聽到一些不同的聲音，但至少就萬豪（Marriott）投資組合而言，我們仍對 Jen 提到的 30 到 35 個基點影響感到非常有信心。

Richard Clarke, Bernstein.

Richard Clarke，Bernstein。

Welcome to Jen as well. I look forward to working with you. Maybe just dialling in a bit more on the Middle East. Qualitatively, have you seen any improvement since the cease fire? How are kind of full year booking trends there?

也歡迎 Jen。期待與你合作。或許再更聚焦一點談中東：就質性而言，自停火以來你們是否看到任何改善？那邊全年訂房趨勢大概如何？

And then quantitatively, I guess your 100 to 125 basis point assumption looks like that 30% in the March, you're kind of holding that through the rest of the year. Maybe what are you assuming for Q2? What did you see in April? And then what are the assumptions maybe baked into the second half to get to that 100 to 125 basis points impact?

然後就量化而言，我想你們 100 到 125 個基點的假設，看起來像是把 3 月的 30%（跌幅）大致延續到今年其餘時間。那你們對第二季的假設是什麼？4 月看到了什麼？以及為了得出 100 到 125 個基點的影響，你們在下半年可能納入了哪些假設？

Thanks for the question, Richard. So clearly, our forecast reflects the fluidity and certainty of the situation in the Middle East. We have certainly seen booking activity showing some signs of recovery from the lows that we experienced in March. But we do expect that the impact to the Middle East properties will continue through the end of the year. The hardest hit quarter we are looking at or we're anticipating about a 50% reduction in RevPAR in Q2, but that it will continue to impact Q3 and Q4, but it will get better consecutively across the quarters.

謝謝你的提問，Richard。很明顯，我們的預測反映了中東局勢的流動性與不確定性。我們確實看到訂房活動相較於3月的低點出現一些復甦跡象。但我們預期，中東物業所受的影響將持續到今年年底。我們認為受衝擊最嚴重的季度是第二季（Q2），我們預估RevPAR將下滑約50%；影響也會延續到第三季（Q3）與第四季（Q4），但會在各季度之間逐季改善。

And just a reminder, Q4 of last year was an incredible quarter in the Middle East, driven by some large citywide events that drove high ADR. So we do expect recovery in the back half of the year sequentially, but we clearly are still seeing an impact.

另外提醒一下，去年第四季（Q4）在中東是一個非常亮眼的季度，主要受一些大型全城活動帶動，推升了較高的ADR。因此，我們確實預期今年下半年會呈現逐季復甦，但我們也清楚仍在承受影響。

Stephen Grambling, Morgan Stanley.

Stephen Grambling，摩根士丹利。

I may have missed in the remarks, but it looks like the investment spend ticked up a bit versus the prior guide. I know you talked about some of the automation that's happened on the back end of some of the technology refresh that you've had underway, and you also touched on the optionality from AI. Can you perhaps talk bigger picture on how to think through investment spend from here? And is the AI component of this something that we should be thinking about will require incremental investment? Or is that a lower capital spend and actually create some potential optionality for either fees or owners?

我可能在發言中漏聽了，但看起來投資支出相較於先前的指引略有上調。我知道你談到一些後端自動化，這是你們正在進行的部分技術更新所帶來的成果，你也提到AI帶來的選擇性（optionalitiy）。你能否從更宏觀的角度談談，接下來該如何看待投資支出？另外，AI這一塊是否需要我們預期會有額外的增量投資？還是說它屬於較低的資本支出，反而能為費用或業主帶來一些潛在的選擇性？

Thanks, Stephen. So maybe just to clarify or reiterate what Jen said in her prepared remarks. For this year, the bit of an uptick is almost entirely tied to the investment we're making in Lefay, our new luxury wellness platform. But I'll let Jen answer the second part of your question.

謝謝你，Stephen。我先澄清或重申一下Jen在事先準備的發言中提到的內容。今年投資支出小幅上調，幾乎完全是因為我們在Lefay（我們新的奢華健康平台）上的投資。不過，你問題的第二部分我讓Jen來回答。

Yes. So if you think broadly, as I talked about in my prepared remarks of where we spend our investment dollars between investment in contracts, the big technology investment and then investment in own lease. To Tony's point, the reason we raised guidance about $50 million was predominantly Lefay. As you think about 2027 and beyond, I would consider with our size and scale and growth, you would expect about the same amount of investment. We are not guiding for '27 for sure, but the categories of spend relatively stay the same.

好的。若從整體來看，正如我在事先準備的發言中提到的，我們的投資資金主要分配在幾個方向：合約投資、大型科技投資，以及自有租賃（own lease）投資。就Tony所說，我們把指引上調約5,000萬美元，主要是Lefay所致。展望2027年及之後，考量我們的規模、體量與成長，你可以預期投資金額大致會維持在相近水準。我們當然沒有對2027年提供指引，但支出類別相對而言會保持一致。

Michael Bellisario, Baird.

Michael Bellisario，Baird。

On the group segment, I think, Tony, you mentioned it being solid. Have you seen a similar uptick in bookings and pace as you have on the transient side? And then on a related note, are there any of your tech upgrades? Are they going to be benefiting either the group meeting planner or your potential Marriott market share going forward?

關於團體（group）業務，我想Tony你提到表現穩健。你們是否也看到團體訂房與訂房節奏（pace）出現類似於散客（transient）那樣的上升？另外相關地，你們的任何技術升級是否會讓團體會議策劃者受益，或在未來提升萬豪（Marriott）的市占？

Sure. So I'll take the first part of your question. Obviously, we're very pleased with group performance in the quarter, and we expect group to be a nice driver of growth for the remainder of the year. Our pace for the year is up about 5%. And while pace is not indicative of where group RevPAR will actualize, we certainly are encouraged by the base of business on the books and continue to be -- expect that to be a growth driver.

當然。我先回答你問題的第一部分。我們對本季團體業務表現非常滿意，也預期團體將在今年剩餘時間成為不錯的成長驅動力。今年的訂房節奏約成長5%。雖然節奏不一定代表團體RevPAR最終會落在何處，但我們確實對目前帳上已訂的基本盤感到鼓舞，並且仍然預期它會成為成長動能。

Yes. And then I think on the second part of the question, Michael, we expect the tech upgrades to help all the constituents we serve, our guests, our associates, and our owners and to be impactful across every sector where we do business. The most notable place where I think there will be an impact of both the new technology platforms and our continued work on the AI front is in the generation of group RFPs.

至於第二部分，Michael，我們預期技術升級將有助於我們服務的所有利害關係人——住客、同仁以及業主——並且在我們經營的每個業務領域都產生影響。我認為新技術平台以及我們在AI方面的持續投入，最顯著的影響點會是在團體RFP（提案邀請/詢價）產生的流程上。

Dan Politzer, JPMorgan.

Dan Politzer，摩根大通（JPMorgan）。

Jen, look forward to working together. I wanted to go back to the US demand, and I think you guys specifically called out a broadening of demand. And Tony, I think you mentioned that select service really seemed to start to inflect in the first-quarter. Can you maybe talk about what specifically is driving that? And how -- what do you think has changed over the last kind of 90 or 180 days?

Jen，期待一起合作。我想回到美國需求的話題，我記得你們特別提到需求正在擴散（broadening）。Tony，我想你也提到精選服務（select service）在第一季似乎開始出現拐點。你能否談談具體是什麼在驅動？以及過去大約90到180天之間，你認為有哪些變化？

Yes. It's a few things. I think, again, not or I suppose, notwithstanding some of the reported weakness in consumer confidence. I do think you're seeing some pivot to domestic travel because of some of the uncertainty. You are seeing some pivot to drive to destinations versus fly to destinations given the impact of rising fuel prices on airline fares. And I think all of those dynamics are positively impactful to the lower chain scales where we operate.

是的，有幾個因素。我想再次強調，儘管有一些報導指出消費者信心走弱，但我確實認為你會看到因不確定性而轉向國內旅遊的趨勢。你也會看到相較於搭飛機，更多人轉向自駕目的地，因為燃油價格上升推高了機票票價。這些動態對我們所營運的較低連鎖等級（lower chain scales）品牌是正向的。

Yes. And a few other things I might add to Tony's comments. First, I think the tax refunds, the increase in those year-over-year have had an impact and the relative low supply growth in the US and Canada over the last few years.

是的。我再補充幾點呼應Tony的看法。第一，我認為退稅（tax refunds）金額年增，確實帶來了一些影響；第二，美國與加拿大過去幾年的供給成長相對偏低。

Yes. And then the last thing I might mention, Dan, we've spoken for the last few quarters about really digging into the consumer spending data that we get from our credit card partners. And really across demographics, we continue to see a prioritization of travel and experiences over consumption of hard goods. And even in lower-income households, you're seeing that shift. And I think that's having a pretty materially positive impact on the performance of our select brands.

是的。最後一點，Dan，我們過去幾季一直在談，我們會深入研究從信用卡合作夥伴取得的消費者支出數據。整體來看，跨各個族群，我們仍看到相較於購買實體商品，消費者更優先把支出放在旅遊與體驗上。即便在較低收入家庭，也能看到這樣的轉變。我認為這對我們精選品牌的表現帶來相當顯著的正面影響。

Aryeh Klein, BMO Capital Markets.

Aryeh Klein，BMO資本市場。

Tony, I think you mentioned business travel room night -- business transient room nights declined outside of government slightly. Hoping you could provide a little bit more detail on what you're seeing there. And then just on the World Cup, you touched on the expectations being maintained there. Obviously, a lot of reports on softer demand and maybe some group cancellations. So any other color would be helpful.

Tony，我想你提到商務旅遊間夜（business travel room night）——在政府以外的部分，商務散客（business transient）間夜略有下滑。希望你能提供更多細節，說明你們看到的情況。另外關於世界盃，你提到仍維持原先的預期。顯然市場上有很多報導提到需求較疲弱，甚至可能有一些團體取消。所以如果能再補充一些背景會很有幫助。

Sure. Maybe I'll take the first one, and then I'll let Jen chat a little bit more about World Cup. So just to ground you, in Q1, global business transient RevPAR was up 1%, which compares favourably to being down 2% a quarter ago. To get to that 1% improvement, we saw a 3% increase in ADR. That's a global number, while room nights were down 2%.

當然。我先回答第一個問題，然後再請Jen多談一些世界盃。先提供一些基礎數字：第一季（Q1）全球商務散客RevPAR年增1%，相較於上一季年減2%是更好的表現。要達到這1%的改善，我們看到ADR上升3%。這是全球數字，而間夜數下滑2%。

In the US and Canada, business transient RevPAR was up 2%, again, largely driven by 3% ADR gains, and that was offset a little bit by a 1% room night decline. US and Canada business transient RevPAR, excluding government, was up 2%. Government transient RevPAR was down 6%. Government RevPAR was down 12% to 13% in January and February and then rose about 8% in March because the comps became a little bit easier.

在美國與加拿大，商務散客RevPAR上升2%，同樣主要由ADR上升3%所帶動，但被間夜數下滑1%稍微抵銷。美國與加拿大的商務散客RevPAR（不含政府）上升2%。政府散客RevPAR下滑6%。政府RevPAR在1月與2月下滑12%到13%，然後在3月回升約8%，因為比較基期變得稍微容易一些。

Great. So -- and I'll take your question on World Cup. Despite what you're hearing and reading in the press, we continue to feel confident in our 30 to 35 basis point impact globally from World Cup. We did extensive research before we guided that number. We benchmarked against other large citywide events that we had experienced.

很好。那我來回答你關於世界盃的問題。儘管你在媒體上聽到與讀到的內容如此，我們仍對世界盃帶來的全球影響維持信心，預估為30到35個基點。我們在給出這個數字之前做了大量研究，也拿我們過去經歷過的其他大型全城活動作為對標。

The total revenue is pacing up nicely over the match dates and in line with our expectations, though there obviously is still a lot left to book, which is expected given where we are in this booking window and the fact that we haven't gotten the exact matchups for the latter half of the competition.

在比賽日期期間，總收入的訂房節奏（pacing）表現不錯，且符合我們的預期；當然，仍有大量尚待預訂，這也符合預期，因為就目前的訂房窗口而言仍在早期，而且賽事後半段的確切對戰組合尚未確定。

The FIFA room block cancellations, we expected for this type of event and had baked that into our forecast. And just a little bit on the mix. We expect the group occupancy for this type of event to be closer to the 15% range versus something like the Super Bowl that's in the 40% range. So we continue to be optimistic about the opportunity.

至於FIFA房間配額（room block）的取消，我們對這類型活動本就有所預期，並已納入我們的預測中。再補充一點關於組合（mix）：我們預期這類活動的團體入住率會更接近15%的區間，而不像超級盃（Super Bowl）那樣約在40%的區間。因此，我們仍對這個機會保持樂觀。

Lizzie Dove, Goldman Sachs.

Lizzie Dove，高盛（Goldman Sachs）。

Just wanted to ask on rooms growth and your latest thinking in terms of percent of that, that might come from conversions and new builds, any brands you're leaning into? And then you mentioned upfront, I think about 7% of your pipeline is from Middle East. So just any impact that you're expecting there on the rooms growth side of things near term?

我想請教客房成長（rooms growth）以及你們最新的看法：其中有多少比例可能來自改牌/轉換（conversions）與新建（new builds）？你們是否更偏重哪些品牌？另外你一開始提到，我想大約有7%的開發管線（pipeline）來自中東。那麼在短期內，你們預期這會對客房成長帶來什麼影響嗎？

Sure. So there's a lot in there. Let me try and answer most of it. I think on your first question or the first part of your question, I suppose, the -- we continue to feel really good about the guidance we've given you. The conversion story continues to be a terrific story for us.

當然。你這裡面包含很多問題，我盡量回答大部分。先談你第一個問題或第一部分：我們對提供給你們的指引仍然感覺非常良好。改牌/轉換（conversion）的故事對我們而言仍然是一個非常出色的成長動能。

In the quarter, 35% of the signings and 40% of the openings were conversion related. I referenced a couple of portfolio conversions, Sun Group in Vietnam and some Series activity across Europe. As we've discussed the last few quarters, while our development teams around the world are out there fighting tooth and nail for every single asset conversion opportunity that exists, they are doing that in parallel with some very focused efforts supported by some very focused resources to chase portfolio conversion opportunities. And the results that are coming from those focused efforts, I think, are a pretty compelling part of the Marriott growth story.

本季，35%的簽約與40%的開業與轉換相關。我提到過幾個投資組合轉換案例，包括越南的Sun Group，以及歐洲各地的一些系列性活動。正如我們過去幾季所討論的，雖然我們全球各地的開發團隊正為每一個現存的資產轉換機會全力以赴、寸土必爭，但他們同時也在一些非常聚焦的努力上並行推進，並由非常聚焦的資源支持，以追逐投資組合轉換機會。而我認為，這些聚焦努力所帶來的成果，是萬豪成長故事中相當有說服力的一部分。

I think the second part of your question, remind me, Lizzie, I'm sorry. I don't know if they muted you. Specific brands, sorry, yes. The other piece I'd like to focus on a little bit is the traction we're getting in mid-scale. Mid-scale is an area that, as you know, we just entered a couple of years ago.

我想你問題的第二部分，提醒我一下，Lizzie，抱歉。我不知道他們是不是把你靜音了。特定品牌，抱歉，是的。我另外想稍微聚焦的一點，是我們在中端（mid-scale）市場取得的動能。中端是你知道的，我們大約在幾年前才剛進入的領域。

And we already between open and pipeline have hit the 500 hotel mark. And so that's not -- it's not a binary choice. We're not shifting resources to mid-scale at the expense of our growth in the other tiers where we compete. It is incremental, but I think the speed with which we've seen our ramp-up in mid-scale openings and pipeline is a really, really encouraging part of the growth story as well.

而且我們目前開業加上在建/籌備中的管線（pipeline）已經達到500家飯店的規模。所以這不是——這不是非此即彼的選擇。我們並不是把資源轉向中端而犧牲我們在其他競爭層級的成長。這是增量的，但我認為，我們在中端開業與管線的爬坡速度之快，也是這個成長故事中非常、非常令人鼓舞的一部分。

And Lizzie, your third part of your question was on net unit growth openings and impacts in the Middle East. We still feel comfortable with 4.5% to 5% global outlook for full year. Though as a reminder, it's more instructive to look over a multiyear CAGR. We still expect anticipated openings in the Middle East to generally proceed as planned, although we are absolutely watching it very closely. We've already opened a few hotels there this year even since the war started.

Lizzie，你問題的第三部分是關於淨單位成長（net unit growth）開業以及中東的影響。我們對全年全球4.5%到5%的展望仍然感到有信心。不過提醒一下，從多年期的複合年成長率（CAGR）來看更具參考性。我們仍預期中東的預計開業大致會按計畫推進，儘管我們確實正在非常密切地關注。我們今年甚至在戰爭開始後，也已經在那裡開了幾家飯店。

But to give you some context, Middle East hotels yet to open this year only account for about 4% of our full year expected net rooms openings.

但提供一些背景，今年尚未開業的中東飯店僅約占我們全年預期淨新增客房開業數的4%。

David Katz, Jefferies.

David Katz，Jefferies。

Welcome, Jen. Look forward. I wanted to go back to the AI efforts. Seeing one of the industry participants launching a native app this morning, probably with intent. What can we literally expect to see and put our hands on? And I suppose I'd like to get a sense for what are the gating factors or success factors? How can we tell if you're doing well with it between now and the end of the year?

歡迎你，Jen。期待接下來的進展。我想回到AI的推動工作。今天早上看到某個產業參與者推出原生App，可能是有意為之。我們實際上可以期待看到什麼、能夠親手使用什麼？另外我也想了解，關鍵的門檻因素或成功因素是什麼？我們要如何在現在到年底之間判斷你們在這方面做得好不好？

Great. Well, let me take a shot at that. And Jen, feel free to jump in and help me out. So I'm going to give you sort of a three-pronged answer, David. I think broadly, Marriott's focus is to implement a unified enterprise-wide generative AI strategy, again, with a focus on elevating the experience of all of our core stakeholders, associates, guests, and owners. As we sit here today, I'll give you a few, not an exhaustive list, but a few examples of how we've already incorporated AI into our day-to-day business.

很好。我來嘗試回答一下。Jen，也請你隨時補充、幫我一下。所以David，我會給你一個大概三個面向的回答。我認為整體而言，萬豪的重點是推動一個統一的、企業層級的生成式AI策略，同樣聚焦於提升我們所有核心利害關係人——員工、賓客與業主——的體驗。以我們今天的現況，我給你幾個例子，不是完整清單，但幾個我們已經把AI納入日常營運的做法。

The business transient sales tool that we put in place for our sales teams. In our customer engagement centers, the real-time call assistance that we have, event planning intelligence tools that we've made available to our team, marketing campaign assistance. And then probably the most impactful this quarter will be the rollout of our conversational search across the marriott.com platform. How will we measure success? I think a few ways.

我們為銷售團隊導入的商務差旅銷售工具；在客戶互動中心，我們提供的即時通話輔助；我們提供給團隊的活動規劃智慧工具；行銷活動輔助。然後本季可能影響最大的是，我們在marriott.com平台上推出對話式搜尋。要如何衡量成功？我想有幾種方式。

On the sales side, clearly, conversion rates, the direct impact on hotel revenue from the implementation of these tools. And then I would say the third area that we would look at in terms of measuring success would be in the above property opportunities that we see in both in regional and headquarters disciplines in areas like legal, like global finance, where we think there's a real opportunity.

在銷售端，顯然是轉換率，以及這些工具導入後對飯店營收的直接影響。接著我會說，第三個我們用來衡量成功的面向，是我們在物業之外（above property）的機會——也就是在區域與總部職能中，例如法務、全球財務等領域——我們認為那裡有很實質的機會。

And then the last thing I would say is we talked about this a quarter ago, but the manner in which we are working with some of the most advanced players, whether that is Google's AI mode travel product, whether that's being one of the first participants in travel with OpenAI on their ad pilot program, there are a wide range of parallel activity streams meant to impact our above property and our on-property effectiveness and efficiency to drive top line and margin improvement.

最後我想說的是，我們在一季前談過：我們與一些最先進的玩家合作的方式——不論是Google的AI模式旅遊產品，或是成為旅遊領域最早一批參與OpenAI廣告試點計畫的參與者之一——都有非常廣泛的並行工作流，目的在於提升我們物業之外與物業內（on-property）的效能與效率，以帶動營收成長並改善利潤率。

Brandt Montour, Barclays.

Brandt Montour，Barclays。

Welcome to Jen. So Tony, I was hoping maybe you could even take that -- some of those comments a little bit further, specifically with regards to the distribution side of things for AI. Obviously, we all know or we don't know exactly where the tech giants will sort of land and what the sort of AI interface will look like in that economic model and how that will evolve. But from what you're seeing on the ground today, what is your sense on where it's -- how it's evolving and where it could kind of land between you and the other players that sort of compete in that sort of top of funnel for customer attention?

歡迎Jen加入。所以Tony，我希望你或許可以把——你剛才的一些評論再延伸一點，特別是關於AI在分銷端（distribution）的影響。顯然，我們都知道——或我們其實也不確定——科技巨頭最終會落在什麼位置，以及在那個經濟模型下AI介面會長什麼樣、又會如何演進。但就你今天在第一線看到的情況，你對它如何演變、以及在你們與其他在客戶注意力漏斗頂端（top of funnel）競爭的玩家之間，可能會落到什麼樣的格局，有什麼看法？

Great. I appreciate the question. You stole the start to my response to your question, which is exactly what you said. None of us know exactly how the online booking space will evolve and transform. But we do think that Marriott's industry-leading scale creates a really advantageous position due to our physical and geographic footprint, our scale, and data, that creates a natural digital content and search advantage relative to some of our peers. We've got more stays. We've got more reviews. We've got better insights into preferences, rates, the ability to refresh availability in real time. I think those are all meaningful advantages.

很好，謝謝你的問題。你把我回答的開頭都說完了——也就是你剛才講的：我們沒有人能確切知道線上訂房領域會如何演進與轉型。但我們確實認為，萬豪在產業領先的規模，因為我們的實體與地理佈局、規模與數據，使我們相較部分同業具備天然的數位內容與搜尋優勢。我們有更多住宿量；有更多評論；對偏好、房價有更好的洞察；也有能力即時更新可售房量。我認為這些都是很有意義的優勢。

How Marriott's distribution costs could evolve as a result of changes in the distribution landscape. I think we're very optimistic about the potential for AI to bring more consumers into the Marriott Bonvoy ecosystem and to help strengthen our direct booking channels. I mean it's quite interesting to watch some of the experimentation that the big AI players have made. They've got decisions to make about how they monetize these platforms. The two areas that we've seen experimentation are in advertising and in transactions.

至於萬豪的分銷成本可能如何因分銷版圖的變化而演進，我想我們對AI把更多消費者帶入Marriott Bonvoy生態系、並協助強化我們的直訂渠道（direct booking channels）的潛力非常樂觀。觀察一些大型AI玩家的實驗其實很有意思。他們必須決定要如何將這些平台變現。我們看到他們主要在兩個方向做實驗：廣告與交易。

At least in the early days, you've seen a heavy predisposition towards monetization through ads. There's been some experimentation. But we think the ability of these platforms to drive customers to book in our proprietary channels and take advantage of all of the loyalty benefits that you get from booking directly represent a significant opportunity for us.

至少在早期，你會看到他們明顯偏向透過廣告來變現。雖然也有一些實驗，但我們認為，這些平台把客戶導向我們自有渠道完成預訂，並讓客戶享受直訂所帶來的所有會員忠誠福利，對我們而言代表一個重大的機會。

And then the last thing I would say is some of the pilots that we're launching, while we're not ready to share really detailed specifics, we do believe they will have favourable cost benefits for our owner and franchise community.

最後我想說的是，我們正在啟動的一些試點，雖然我們還沒準備好分享非常具體的細節，但我們確實相信，這些試點將為我們的業主與加盟社群帶來有利的成本效益。

Duane Pfennigwerth, Evercore ISI.

Duane Pfennigwerth，Evercore ISI。

Just on Middle East, can you speak to not what is embedded in your guidance, but just how quickly markets have historically bounced back after conflict, if that's quarters, years or if it sort of surprises you that they can kind of come back more quickly? And then you mentioned markets that are dependent upon airlift from the Middle East, which is a little bit surprising because I do think some of that has shifted to other global connecting hubs. What markets would you consider those to be?

就中東而言，你能否談談——不是你們指引（guidance）中已經納入的假設——而是歷史上市場在衝突後通常反彈得有多快？是以季度計、以年計，還是有時會讓你意外地更快回來？另外你提到一些依賴來自中東航班運力（airlift）的市場，這有點出乎意料，因為我確實認為其中一些已經轉向其他全球轉機樞紐。你認為哪些市場屬於這一類？

Yes. Thank you for the questions. I wish that you could look at a single or a couple of regional conflicts and draw deep conclusions about what the impact of this conflict will be. As you well know, they're all quite different. I think that the -- maybe the most notable aspect of this conflict is how quickly the impact on fuel prices might change and what the impact will be on travel more broadly.

是的，謝謝你的問題。我希望能夠看一個或幾個區域衝突就對這次衝突的影響下很深的結論，但如你所知，每一場衝突都很不一樣。我認為——也許這次衝突最值得注意的一點，是它對燃油價格的影響可能變化得多快，以及這會如何更廣泛地影響旅遊需求。

On your second question, as I'm sure you're aware, we are, for instance, the largest hotel company in India. And so the impact of some of those Middle East carriers into India, you are absolutely right. You're already seeing a pivot to some other carriers. But -- the reality is the Middle East accounts for 10% of global transit traffic demand. And so that ripple effect, particularly for a company like Marriott that has such a dominant footprint in markets like India is something we've got to watch closely.

關於你的第二個問題，如你所知，例如我們是印度最大的飯店公司。因此，中東航空公司飛往印度的影響——你說得完全正確——你已經看到部分需求轉向其他航空公司。但——現實是，中東約占全球轉機交通需求的10%。因此，這種外溢效應，特別是對像萬豪這樣在印度等市場擁有如此主導性佈局的公司而言，是我們必須密切關注的。

Now Jen talked to you a little bit about how we're thinking about guidance. I think the APAC team believes the most significant impact to their business will be in the current quarter in Q2, and they've made some assumptions about that softening a bit as some of the other carriers fill the breach of some lost capacity coming out of Emirates and Etihad and some of the other regional carriers.

至於Jen剛才跟你談到我們如何看待指引，我想亞太（APAC）團隊認為，對他們業務最顯著的影響會落在本季，也就是第二季（Q2）；他們也做了一些假設，認為隨著其他航空公司補上阿聯酋航空（Emirates）、阿提哈德航空（Etihad）以及其他區域航空公司部分流失的運力缺口，這種疲軟會有所緩解。

Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

Conor Cunningham，Melius Research。

Congrats, Jen. Just trying to tie together a couple of things you said. So you're seeing improvement in the select service and steady trends in luxury. I don't get the sense that you're fully endorsing the C-shaped economy, but I'm just trying to understand the uplift a little bit. So when you look at your initial guidance relative to where you are today, like what is -- from a travel type, what has actually advanced the most? It seems like it's business transient, but I don't -- I just -- if you could give me a little bit more color there, I think that would be helpful.

恭喜你，Jen。我只是想把你剛才提到的幾點串起來。你說你看到精選服務（select service）有所改善，而奢華（luxury）維持穩健趨勢。我不覺得你是在完全認同所謂的「C 型經濟」，但我想更了解這個回升的力道。當你把最初的指引和你們目前的狀況相比，從旅遊類型來看，實際上進展最大的是哪一塊？看起來像是商務散客（business transient），但我不太確定——如果你能再多給一些細節，我想會很有幫助。

Sure. Thanks for the question. I -- look, we clearly have seen strength across all chain scales and segments in Q1. We're seeing that continue in US and Canada in April. So relative to our last guidance, we have raised US and Canada expectations. And if you think about how that fits into our global guidance, it's on the higher end of the global guidance. We do see -- we are expecting higher strength in the first half of the year versus the second half. A lot of that is -- and I'm talking US and Canada right now.

當然。謝謝你的問題。我——你看，我們在第一季確實看到所有連鎖等級與各個細分市場都呈現強勁表現。我們也看到這個趨勢在 4 月於美國與加拿大持續。因此，相較於我們上一次的指引，我們已上調美國與加拿大的預期。若你思考這如何反映在我們的全球指引中，它位於全球指引的較高端。我們確實看到——我們預期上半年會比下半年更強。這其中很大一部分——我現在講的是美國與加拿大。

A lot of that is we expect uplift from the World Cup in Q2 and Q3. In Q4, we do expect a bit of an impact from the midterm elections. So relative to our last guidance, we certainly feel better about US and Canada. And then as we've talked about, I think if you go around the world, Middle East is by far the biggest impact. We're expecting 100 to 125 basis points.

其中很大一部分是我們預期世界盃會在第二季與第三季帶來提振。第四季我們確實預期期中選舉會帶來一些影響。所以相較於我們上一次的指引，我們對美國與加拿大的看法確實更樂觀。然後如同我們談過的，我認為如果你放眼全球，中東的影響是迄今為止最大的。我們預期會有 100 到 125 個基點。

That being said, it's a very fluid uncertain situation, and we are watching it closely and reacting. But that if things perform better there, that would be uplift to guidance. China, we are raising to low single digits. We had a great first-quarter, predominantly driven by leisure. So we feel good about that.

話雖如此，這是一個非常流動且不確定的情勢，我們正密切關注並做出反應。但如果那邊的表現優於預期，將會對指引形成上行空間。中國方面，我們上調至低個位數成長。我們第一季表現非常好，主要由休閒旅遊帶動。因此我們對此感覺良好。

APAC, Tony talked about that, that in the near term, we are impacted by long-haul flights. And -- but we expect that we will pick back up to where we were in the back half of the year. And then CALA, a little bit of reduction mainly from Mexico. But otherwise, relatively, we feel good.

亞太方面，Tony 已經談到，短期內我們受到長程航班的影響。而——但我們預期在下半年會回升到先前的水準。至於 CALA（加勒比與拉丁美洲），略有下調，主要來自墨西哥。不過除此之外，整體而言我們感覺不錯。

Trey Bowers, Wells Fargo.

Trey Bowers，Wells Fargo。

I noticed in the press release, you stated that the guidance does not include the impact of renegotiation of the credit card deals. I guess two parts of the question. One, how would you view kind of success in renegotiating those deals? And then two, could there actually be an impact from the renegotiated deal in '26? I thought that was more of a '27 impact but would love a little clarity around that.

我注意到在新聞稿中，你們提到指引不包含重新談判信用卡合作協議的影響。我想問題分兩部分。第一，你們會如何看待重新談判這些協議的「成功」？第二，重新談判後的協議在 2026 年是否可能就會產生影響？我原本以為那會更多是在 2027 年才反映，但希望能釐清一下。

Sure. Thanks for the question. I'll start with we're very pleased with how things are going. We're in active negotiations, as I talked about in the prepared remarks, with Visa, Chase and Amex, and we do still expect to have new deals in place the latter part of the year. Your comment on timing, I think, is spot on.

當然。謝謝你的問題。我先說，我們對目前的進展非常滿意。正如我在事先準備的發言中提到的，我們正與 Visa、Chase 以及 Amex 進行積極談判，我們仍預期在今年下半年完成新協議。你對時點的評論，我認為非常到位。

These deals take time to -- there's a renegotiation of the card that will bring benefit both to the loyalty program for guests and owners and to our royalty fees. So we -- you can expect some upside this year, but the real opportunity is when you refresh the cards and relaunch them, and that will take some time. It is important to keep in mind the size and scale of our credit card program already. We are largest among the lodging companies. And so everything -- we have to think about it in that context already.

這些協議需要時間——信用卡的重新談判將同時為住客與業主的忠誠計畫，以及我們的權利金費用帶來效益。因此，今年你可以預期會有一些上行，但真正的機會是在你更新卡片並重新推出時，而那需要一些時間。也很重要的一點是，要記得我們現有信用卡計畫的規模與量體。我們在住宿公司中是最大的。因此所有事情——我們都必須在這個既有背景下來思考。

Smedes Rose, Citi.

Smedes Rose，Citi。

I know you've covered a lot of ground here, but I guess I wanted to ask specifically just on the leisure side, as you look out into kind of the summer vacation. I mean, do you have -- you kind of hinted at this, I think. But I mean, do you see sort of solid evidence that Americans might be leaning into domestic travel here versus international travel, given you talked about a little bit weaker in Mexico specifically, but just a lot of other things going on. And I'm just wondering if that's something you definitely see sort of a pattern of how you think about how the vacation period could shape up?

我知道你們已經涵蓋很多內容，但我想特別就休閒端問一下：當你展望暑期度假季時——我的意思是，你們是否有——我想你剛才有稍微暗示。你們是否看到明確證據顯示，美國人可能更傾向於國內旅遊而非國際旅遊？因為你提到墨西哥特別偏弱一些，但同時也有很多其他事情在發生。我只是想知道，你們是否確實看到某種模式，並據此思考度假期間可能會如何發展？

Yes. Thank you for the question, Smedes. What I would tell you is while I am very encouraged by what we saw in April, you heard in the prepared remarks some commentary about the pretty modest booking window of plus or minus three weeks for transient business. So anecdotally, are we feeling good about the summer travel season? We are.

是的。謝謝你的問題，Smedes。我想告訴你的是，雖然我對 4 月看到的情況非常受到鼓舞，但你也在事先準備的發言中聽到一些評論：商務散客的訂房窗口相當短，大約正負三週。因此，就經驗觀察而言，我們對暑期旅遊旺季有信心嗎？我們是有的。

We're hoping that the benefit of tax refunds and the like will ripple through to that. But in terms of hard advanced booking data, that short transient window is really making it a little blurry right now.

我們希望退稅等因素帶來的好處能夠擴散到那段期間。但就硬性的提前訂房數據而言，這個短的散客窗口確實讓目前的能見度有點模糊。

Yes. And I would just say in terms of travel patterns, in the first few weeks of the conflict, we did see that US travellers slowed their international bookings a bit, but those trends have normalized. And so we're back to kind of pre-conflict trends in terms of domestic versus international travel bookings from the US.

是的。我也想補充，就旅遊型態而言，在衝突發生的最初幾週，我們確實看到美國旅客的國際訂房稍微放緩，但這些趨勢已經正常化。因此，就美國出發的國內與國際旅遊訂房而言，我們已回到衝突前的趨勢。

Steve Pizzella, Deutsche Bank.

Steve Pizzella，Deutsche Bank。

Just wanted to follow up a little more on the development as it seems like conversions overall are going to be a bigger driver of net rooms growth longer term, including the licensing deals and multiunit deals as you referenced. What do you view as the addressable market for these? And is there any difference in the fee structures?

我想再追問一下開發（development）方面。看起來整體而言，轉換加盟（conversions）在長期會成為淨客房成長更大的驅動因素，包括你提到的授權協議與多店（multiunit）協議。你們如何看待這些的可觸及市場（addressable market）？另外，費用結構是否有任何差異？

Yes. So the -- maybe I'll go in reverse order. The vast, vast majority of the deals that we do are under fee structures that should be very familiar to you. They are -- even if it's a multi-unit conversion deal, the fees, whether they are managed fees in a managed scenario or franchise fees in a license deal, they are very typical to the sorts of deals you've grown accustomed to over the year.

是的。那——也許我倒過來回答。絕大多數我們做的交易，其費用結構你應該都非常熟悉。它們——即使是多店的轉換加盟交易，費用不論是在委託管理情境下的管理費，或是在授權協議下的加盟費，基本上都非常典型，和你多年來所熟悉的交易類型一致。

In terms of the addressable market, Jackie may kick me if I say infinite, but it's something approaching infinite. I mean, notwithstanding the really tremendous market share we enjoy in the US and Canada and globally, you've got markets around the world where we've got mid-single-digit market share. So the runway for growth and the runway for conversions, you think about markets like Europe where you've still got a very significant portion of the lodging supply that are independents, which is fertile hunting grounds for us.

至於可觸及市場，Jackie 可能會因為我說「無限大」而踢我一腳，但它確實接近無限大。我的意思是，儘管我們在美國與加拿大以及全球都享有非常可觀的市占率，但世界各地仍有一些市場，我們的市占率只有中個位數。因此成長的跑道、轉換加盟的跑道都很長。你想想像歐洲這樣的市場，住宿供給中仍有非常顯著的一部分是獨立飯店，對我們而言是非常肥沃的獵場。

And then the last thing I would say is the fact that we've got such compelling conversion platforms across effectively every quality tier where we operate allows us to think pretty aggressively about the trajectory for conversion volume for the next number of years.

最後我想說的是，我們在幾乎所有我們營運的品質層級上，都擁有非常具吸引力的轉換平台，這讓我們能夠相當積極地思考未來數年轉換量的成長軌跡。

And at this time, we have reached our allotted time for questions. I will now turn the call back over to Tony Capuano for closing comments.

此刻，我們已達到提問時間的上限。接下來我將把電話會議交回給 Tony Capuano 作結語。

Great. Well, thank you again. It is a delight to be here with Jen. I look forward to lots of upcoming quarterly earnings calls with Jen going forward. We, as always, appreciate your interest and look forward to seeing you on the road. Thanks, and have a great day.

很好。再次感謝。能與 Jen 一起在這裡我感到非常愉快。我也期待未來與 Jen 一起進行更多季度財報電話會議。一如既往，我們感謝各位的關注，也期待在旅途中與各位相見。謝謝，祝各位有美好的一天。

Thank you. This brings us to the end of today's meeting. We appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。感謝各位的時間與參與。您現在可以斷線。