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Operator
I would like to thank everyone for waiting and welcome you to today's conference call.
Today's conference call will be in a listen-only mode until the end of the presentation.
We will take questions at the end and will also give instructions on how to participate.
As requested, we are recording today's conference call.
I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Karen Hoguet.
Thank you for using Sprint Conferencing Services.
Karen Hoguet - CFO
Good morning and welcome to the Federated Department Stores conference call scheduled to discuss our third quarter earnings.
I'm Karen Hoguet, CFO of the Company.
Any transcription or other reproduction of statements made in this call without our consent is prohibited.
A replay of the call will be available on our web site beginning approximately two hours after the call concludes.
Please refer to the investor relations section of our web site www.fds.com for a discussion and reconciliations of any non-GAAP financial measures discussed this morning.
This morning, I will first provide an overview of our performance in the third quarter and then I will highlight our key planning assumptions for the fourth quarter.
I will also discuss the key components of the Florida rebranding to Burdines/Macy's, the details of which were also announced today.
I will then open the call for questions.
We were pleased to see our sales trends improve in the third quarter and to exceed our profit expectations.
We believe this indicates some strengthening in the economy, as well as improvement in our own performance.
Sales in the quarter were particularly strong at Bloomingdale's, but every division produced an improved sales trends in the quarter.
By family of business, sales were strong in men's and women's apparel, driven by career apparel and more contemporary fashions.
Jewelry, handbags, cosmetics, furniture and bedding were also very strong.
Sales were weaker in the quarter in housewares, which is continuing our year-to-date trend.
Gross margin in the quarter was 40 percent, up 70 basis points versus last year's 39.3 percent.
The improved gross margin rate was due to lower markdowns resulting from the low inventory levels, combined with the good sales.
Inventory at the end of the quarter was down 5 percent below last year.
SG&A dollars in the third quarter were $1.222 billion.
Included in SG&A were $29 million of store closing and consolidation costs.
This includes $20 million for the previously announced Atlanta integration and the future closing of our downtown Columbus story, plus $9 million for costs associated with the future closing of our Boynton Beach, Florida store as discussed today in the announcement on the Florida rebranding.
Of the $29 million, approximately $20 million is non-cash.
There were no store closing and consolidation costs last year in the third quarter.
Excluding those store closing and consolidation costs, SG&A dollars in the third quarter were up 1.2 percent.
As a percent of sales, SG&A was 35 percent, up from last year's 33.9 percent.
Excluding the store closing and consolidation costs, SG&A was up 30 basis points.
Depreciation in the quarter was $176 million, up from $167 million a year ago.
There were increases and decreases across all of the expense ledgers during the third quarter, but there were no major callouts or major variances.
EBIT in the quarter was $173 million, or 5 percent versus $188 million, or 5.4 percent last year.
Interest expense was $61 million versus $73 million last year.
Tax expense was $45 million.
Income from continuing operations was $67 million versus $75 million last year.
EPS from continuing operations on a diluted basis was 36 cents versus 38 cents last year.
And as you know, this was above our original guidance of 25-30 cents as well as our revised guidance of 30-33 cents.
Keep in mind also that the store closing and consolidation costs were worth 9 cents per share in the quarter and there were no such costs last year in the third quarter.
Share count was 185.7 million shares on a diluted basis versus 195.9 million a year ago.
In the third quarter, we utilized $258 million to buy back 5.8 million shares.
Year-to-date, we have spent $485 million to buy back 13.1 million shares.
Cash flow year-to-date after investing activities, but before financing activities, was $274 million versus a cash outflow last year for the first 39 weeks of the year of $201 million.
In other words, for the first 39 weeks of 2003, we have generated $475 million more cash before financing activities than last year.
This is due to lower inventory levels this year, lower cash taxes, lower CapEx, offset in part by higher accounts receivable.
We use the excess cash as well as cash on hand to buy back stock for the $485 million I had just mentioned, and we also reduced debt by $456 million and paid dividends of $46 million.
At the end of the quarter, our debt to cap net of cash was 40.4 percent, down from 44.2 percent a year ago.
So it was a very good quarter.
Sales improved versus our year-to-date trend and were as expected.
EPS was better-than-expected and we continued to produce very strong cash flow.
Let's now talk about the key planning assumptions for the fourth quarter.
Keep in mind that all forward-looking statements are subject to risk and uncertainties that could cause the Company's actual results to differ materially from the assumptions mentioned today due to a variety of factors that affect the Company, including the risks specified in the Company's most recently filed form 10-K and form 10-Q.
First, sales.
We continue to expect comp store sales to range between minus 1 percent and plus 1 percent in the fourth quarter.
New stores net of closed stores are expected to result in total sales growth that will be about a half a point below the comp store sales growth.
We have opened 12 stores this year, six department stores and six home or furniture stores, and we have closed 14 stores since the third quarter last year.
The gross margin rate is still expected to the above last year in the fourth quarter by a similar amount to the increase in the third quarter.
SG&A dollars, excluding the store closing and consolidation costs, is expected to be up in dollars by a similar percent as in the third quarter.
Given what has been announced for the Atlanta and Florida integrations, we are expecting $10-$15 million of store closing and consolidation costs in the fourth quarter.
Interest in the fourth quarter is expected to be similar or slightly higher than in the third quarter.
EPS is still expected to be to $2.15 to $2.20 in the fourth quarter.
Cap Ex for the full year 2003 we now expect to come in below the low end of our prior guidance of $600-$625 million.
This reduction is due both to normal delays, as well as our discipline to be sure to only approve projects that offer good returns on investment.
Now let me make a few comments about Florida and then I will open the call for questions.
As announced earlier this year, we are rebranding all of our headquarters department stores to add the Macy's name to our regional names, thereby leveraging the great strength of the Macy's brand.
The change has already happened everywhere in the Company, except Florida.
At the time of the announcement, we had said the Florida change would happen at the end of the fiscal year, and in fact, we are on track for the conversion to happen on January 30th.
And as you saw today, we announced the specifics of that integration.
As you will recall, in Florida, we're not just changing the store names, but we are also integrating the Macy's Florida operations into Burdines.
We currently operate seven Macy's stores in Florida, four of which directly overlap the Burdines stores.
We're only closing one of these overlapping stores, Boynton Beach.
At Aventura and PGA, two of the best malls in south Florida, we are going to make our offerings even more compelling for the customer by utilizing both of our boxes and expanding our assortments.
In both cases, we're adding furniture to our department stores, which as you know, has been one of our best businesses.
At Plantation where our stores are a few blocks apart, we will operate two full-line stores.
The other three Macy's stores in Florida at the Falls, City Place and Orlando, where we do not directly overlap with Burdines, these stores will be converted to Burdines-Macy's.
Because of the greater concentration of Burdines-Macy's stores, as well as the closing of Boynton Beach, we do expect to do less volume in Florida, about $50 million annually.
The EBIT impact, however, is expected to be minimal, other than the store closing and consolidation cost.
This integration does involve store closing and consolidation costs of roughly $35-$40 million. $9 million of this consisting primarily of non-cash charges we've already booked in the third quarter.
About $5-$10 million of the remaining $26-$31 million in charges are expected to be booked in the fourth quarter of this year, with the remainder in 2004.
Also, approximately $5-$10 million of the charges relate to incremental markdowns needed to make the assortments congruent.
These costs will negatively impact gross margin rather than SG&A.
The timing of these markdowns is now expected to be divided between the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2004.
There also will be capital spent to convert the stores, but we will fund that within our existing budget.
As Terry Lundgren, our President and CEO said in the press release this morning, we have been pleased as far with the benefits of expanding the Macy's in all of our regional markets and we believe the excitement and positive customer response we have seen elsewhere will be replicated in Florida as this strategy continues to unfold.
The enthusiasm across Federated is high.
There is the excitement about the expansion of the Macy's brand and the result and simplification of our strategy.
There is excitement about the outlook for the business and the continuing positive trend we are experiencing in the career businesses, and there is excitement about some of the new merchandise lines expected to hit the stores in spring 2004.
That sure is a good way to enter the all-important holiday selling season.
And now I will take your questions.
Operator
(Operator Instructions).
George Strachan, Goldman, Sachs & Co.
George Strachan - Analyst
Thank you very much, and congratulations.
Terrific quarter, Karen.
I noted the inventory was down 5 percent working capital.
I also noted the payables were up pretty dramatically and we recognized that there's other stuff in there besides merchandise payables, and there's some timing issues.
But I was wondering first of you could comment on that.
Also, given your focus on the fashion customer that you began to announce earlier this year, how do you measure the success of that strategic initiative?
Is it sell-through, is it average price point?
I recognize it is a gradual process.
How do you feel, what kind of progress do you think you're making on that front?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
Let me start on the first question.
On the payables, payables is not so much a function of inventory, it's really a function of the receipts that we bring in October receipts were higher, and therefore, the payables as a percent of receipts was consistent with historical patterns, so that is not as unusual as it looks.
The second question relating to the fashion customer, obviously, we're looking at comp store sales trends to see if in fact we are making our assortments more compelling to that customer, and we are also looking at average retail which is up in the third quarter for the first time in a long time.
So we feel very good about that, particularly in the apparel fashion businesses, so that is a good sign as well.
And over a longer period of time, we will be tracking the sales of our private-label and exclusive merchandise to see that that is growing also, which it has done year-to-date.
George Strachan - Analyst
More reasons I guess to be optimistic about holiday.
Karen Hoguet - CFO
Optimistic within the range of minus 1 to plus 1.
George Strachan - Analyst
Thank you very much.
Operator
Daniel Barry, Merrill Lynch & Co.
Daniel Barry - Analyst
Good morning, Karen.
Following up on the Christmas, you're cutting your inventories and you beat your sales in the third quarter.
Everyone is talking about a good Christmas.
It seems like you ought to be maybe guiding a little bit more up in the fourth quarter.
Is there anything we're missing here, any concern you have about the fourth quarter?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
No.
Again, third quarter was an improvement versus the year-to-date trend, and we do expect the fourth quarter to still be within this range.
So that does include improvement in the trend.
Do we think it is going to be significantly higher than that?
Today, we don't.
But obviously as I said, we are enthusiastic.
We will just have to see.
Daniel Barry - Analyst
You said Bloomingdale's (indiscernible).
Did the flagship stores (indiscernible) did they do particularly well?
I mentioned that because it might be an indication that tourism is improving?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
I have not looked at that, Dan, I should not comment.
Daniel Barry - Analyst
Okay, thank you.
Operator
Bob Buchanan, AG Edwards.
Bob Buchanan - Analyst
Good morning, Karen.
Just wanted first of all if you could comment on any difference you've seen in terms of the pace of business between moderate and better?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
There really has not been a huge difference here.
We are thinking of that more in terms of fashion and exclusive merchandise versus basics, and the fashion and exclusives have done better, both in moderate and in the better price point.
Bob Buchanan - Analyst
Fine.
In terms of your buying and related complements of folks in Miami and in Atlanta post the integration moves, if you could you comment on what you will have in place before integration?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
There is no change there.
The Burdines operation will now buy for the additional Macy's stores that they're adding, but they will be doing all of the merchandising for Burdines-Macy's, just like the people in Atlanta are doing the Rich's-Macy's.
Bob Buchanan - Analyst
I assume in the past for the few Macy's locations, for example, in Florida, those have been purchased by Macy's East?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
That's correct.
Bob Buchanan - Analyst
Okay, thanks.
Operator
Deborah Weinswig, Smith Barney.
Deborah Weinswig - Analyst
Hi, Karen, good morning.
Can you update us on the Macy's national ad campaign, where we stand now, and how will the marketing differ in Boston, San Diego and Atlanta and some other markets?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
We're testing a national approach to advertising which has multiple components.
The two biggest are that the message is much more simplified, has a little bit of an attitude and different from sort of the pounded out sale advertising that we did so much of at this time of year in the past.
The second major component is a shift to more television and less ROP than what we have done in the past.
The three markets where we're testing it are San Diego, Boston and Atlanta.
In terms of how it's doing, so far, it looks like it is doing a little bit better, but really at this point, it's just too early to tell.
We just launched it a week ago Sunday.
Deborah Weinswig - Analyst
In this is very minor, but we received the B magazine -- could you talk about who that was distributed to, and what we might see in the future?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
I honestly don't know the exact distribution of the magazine, but Bloomingdale's, as everybody knows, is working on a branding strategy to really differentiate it from Macy's sort of in the niche between Macy's and the normal department stores and the Neiman's and the upscale specialty stores.
And as part of that, they had put out this new magazine or magalog which looks terrific if you have not seen it.
But I don't, Deborah, know the exact distribution of that, I'm sorry.
Deborah Weinswig - Analyst
Okay great.
Thank you very much.
Operator
BobDrbul, Lehman Brothers.
Bob Drbul - Analyst
Good morning, Karen.
Two questions.
The first is -- could you maybe comment around some of the initiatives for some of the in-store boutiques and the lease space within part of your reinvent strategy, and your expectations around some of those?
And then the second one is, in terms of the promotional environment around holiday, could you give us an idea, in terms of the cadence that you expect out of on a Federated maybe out of some of the competitors?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
In terms of the in-store boutiques, we're doing experimenting in all components of sort of the in-store shopping experience to make it easier and more comfortable for the customer to shop, as well as in some cases to build traffic.
So we are doing some experimentation.
But again at this point, it is still premature to be talking about that.
In terms of your second question relating to promotions, I really don't think it's going to be much different than prior years.
As you know, we're trying very hard to reduce the amount of couponing activity that we do.
But we still will be giving a great deal of value to the customer, so we are not trying to do this to increase our gross margin rate.
It is more just to simplify the promotional offering to the customer, and I really don't see any difference as we go into holiday.
Bob Drbul - Analyst
Thank you.
Operator
Jeff Stein, McDonald Investments.
Jeff Stein - Analyst
Karen, I'm wondering if you might comment on the success to date that you have had in your reinvent strategy, and if those locations are outperforming the rest of the fleet?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
Those locations in total are outperforming the rest of the Company, both versus relative to plan and relative to last year, so that is good news.
Now within that mix, there's some that are doing dramatically better and others that are doing worse, and so we're trying to sort through the reasons behind that because obviously we would like to repeat the dramatic improvement.
But overall, it appears to be working quite well.
Jeff Stein - Analyst
Second question.
Can you talk a bit about your leverage point and on a go forward basis as you look at your expenses.
Historically, this company has required kind of a 2-3 percent comp increase to leverage SG&A.
Is that changing on a go-forward basis, based on some of the expense reductions that you have initiated?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
Given recent performance, and also our outlook at least for the next year or so, we are working very hard to make sure we can leverage more in the 1-2 percent range.
You're right.
Historically, it has been 2-3, but we are working very hard to bring the expense structure down such that we can leverage it on a lower sales growth.
Jeff Stein - Analyst
Okay, thank you.
Operator
Linda Kristiansen, UBS Warburg.
Linda Kristiansen - Analyst
Hi, Karen.
In terms of the better brands that are coming our next year, I know you're excited and enthusiastic.
Could you be a little bit more or quantify a little bit more what you might be expecting, in terms of comp impact or how incremental you think this will be.
Do you think it will be an important driver of traffic to the malls and average tickets?
Any quantification?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
It's going to be hard to quantify, Linda.
We do think it will bring traffic to the malls, we think it will bring traffic to our stores because in some cases, the product is exclusive just to Federated.
For example, the H collection, which we think will be great.
So we feel very good about that.
Now that is the apparel piece of our business, so you need to keep in mind that that is not the whole store.
So, again, we have not yet completed our plans for '04, but I think people need to be careful not to translate the excitement we're seeing, particularly in better sportswear into a total store comp increase.
Linda Kristiansen - Analyst
But this won't be really fully (indiscernible), in terms of the impact I guess until the fall of '04, or it would be a bigger impact in the fall, I assume?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
No, if the lines -- there's a couple of lines not coming out until the fall, but a lot of that newness should happen first quarter.
Linda Kristiansen - Analyst
Secondly, maybe a minor point, but I guess housewares is one of the categories that were weak.
And if I remember correctly, you were doing a little bit more EDLP, or a little bit less promotional pricing in that category. (multiple speakers)
Karen Hoguet - CFO
That is correct.
I do not think that is the reason for the weakness.
Their weakness had started before.
And in fact on the EDLP items, we're very pleased with how they are doing, so I don't think that is a factor.
Linda Kristiansen - Analyst
Okay, thank you Karen.
Operator
Lee Backus, Buckingham Research.
Lee Backus - Analyst
Hi, Karen.
First, good quarter.
Second, in the focus on the women's better, how much of a shift is there in total open to buy dollars from a women's moderate to women's better?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
I don't know the answer to that, I'm sorry.
Over time, as we think about our overall assortments, if you divide them between good, better, best, with good being the moderate, we are expecting to shift more into the better and best.
But I can't tell you specifically for spring what the open to buy shift is.
Lee Backus - Analyst
Also, you commented about your everyday low pricing value program in the past.
Could you give us a sense of how that is working?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
It is still early.
In the spring season, however, you're going to start to see a common signing program across all of our headquarters divisions and within a store, across families of business, that over the next 2-3 years, we expect to grow to 10-15 percent of our assortment.
However, it will start below 5 percent.
So again, it will take time.
But in categories such as housewares, we are expecting it to start quicker.
Lee Backus - Analyst
Also, on your credit card operations?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
There's really no standout there.
The penetration has continued to be good, meaning the usage of the card and all of the financial statistics look good.
Lee Backus - Analyst
Thank you.
Operator
Shari Schwartzman-Ebert, J.P. Morgan.
Shari Schwartzman-Eberts - Analyst
Good morning, Karen.
First, just on the CapEx, I guess when we came in a little bit below the low end of your plan for the year, I'm wondering if this is a permanent change?
You mentioned some of it was timing, but just how you would be thinking about the Cap Ex going forward?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
I was waiting for that question to come up.
The truth is, Shari, I don't know right now.
We're in the middle of planning '04, and our current plan for '04 stays at this $650 million.
And so whether we choose to bring that down a little bit, I don't know for sure.
But my guess is it would not go below $600 million, and it very well could stay at the $650.
Shari Schwartzman-Eberts - Analyst
Okay.
Second question just on the gross margin improvement, it was very strong, and obviously expect it to be similar for the fourth quarter.
Can you talk about what you think a normalized gross margin is in your business is?
Is there more improvement possible in '04 and beyond?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
Truthfully, we had said over the longer term to think about gross margins as being flattish.
And in fact year-to-date, our gross margins happen to be flat.
So I don't see huge gross margin rate improvement opportunities at this point.
Shari Schwartzman-Eberts - Analyst
Okay and the improvement that you have seen in the back half or are expecting in the back half is really just inventory management more than any (multiple speakers)
Karen Hoguet - CFO
It's not a mix shift or something else happening.
Shari Schwartzman-Eberts - Analyst
Okay, thank you Karen.
Operator
Wayne Hood, Prudential.
Wayne Hood - Analyst
Karen, a couple of questions.
You mentioned the markdowns for '04 related to the Florida conversions would occur in first and second quarter. (indiscernible) the expenses, would they occur, outside markdowns occur in the second and third quarter when you begin the construction?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
The markdowns I said would be in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year.
The expenses, we don't have the timing downyet.
Some of it will be in the fourth quarter, but some will go through the third quarter of next year as we complete the construction.
Wayne Hood - Analyst
Back to the CapEx question.
You're running below $600 million now, yet your depreciation is running $680 to $700 million.
Is it logical to think your Cap Ex would fall below your depreciation in the future?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
Yes.
Wayne Hood - Analyst
Why wouldn't you be reinvesting in at least at what your depreciation would be?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
Because I don't think it is a function of what the depreciation is.
It is a function of the needs for the business.
We're able to do our capital projects now for less dollars per square foot than we could 10 years ago.
So as a result, depreciation, it's a benchmark, but I wouldn't view it as the absolute guide.
Wayne Hood - Analyst
You mentioned your average unit retail was up.
Could you maybe quantify how much and what the driver of that was, in terms of businesses that were driving that?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
It was up just a little bit, so it's not a huge increase.
In terms of the business driving it, other than kids, we saw flat or increases throughout the store.
Wayne Hood - Analyst
My final question -- in the press release, you talked about the Macy's Aventura store being reconfigured to focus on fashion apparel for women's and children.
I don't want to read anything into that.
Are you talking about really just women's and children's, and so we can think about this as maybe something different you're trying, going more for contemporary apparel in children's, or is there anything to be read into that, or is that just going to be typical department store?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
Our hope as it goes is that Aventura and PGA will be better than the typical department store.
The idea is to make these really fabulous destination shopping environments.
But in many locations, we do have split stores like this.
And the fact that we're putting womens and kids together is just a function of square footages and how the store lays out best.
Wayne Hood - Analyst
Thanks, Karen.
Operator
Christine Augustine, Bear Stearns.
Christine Augustine - Analyst
Thank you.
Karen, what will inventories look like, do you think, by the end of the fourth quarter?
Would it be at similar decline?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
My guess is it will be less of a decline, just because we are year rounding on the big declines.
Christine Augustine - Analyst
But still down?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
I believe so.
Christine Augustine - Analyst
What were the traffic trends like for you in the third quarter?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
We don't track traffic as closely as you may think, but in the malls where we do track traffic, it seemed to be pretty healthy in the third quarter, particularly when the weather was favorable.
As we hit the warm spot in October, it obviously went down significantly.
Christine Augustine - Analyst
Is there any indication on spring '04 pricing or I guess maybe even by now fall '04 pricing out of the Far East? (multiple speakers)
Karen Hoguet - CFO
I have not seen anything, Christine, I'm sorry.
Christine Augustine - Analyst
How about reinvents for '04?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
We continue to expand the four key ideas -- shopping buggies, the fitting room environments, the price checkers and the way finding signage, and we continue to expand through another X stores next year.
Christine Augustine - Analyst
But you have not announce how many yet?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
We have not.
We're still working on the plans.
And as we did this year, we're going to do it market by market so that we can make an impact in the total market, as opposed to isolated stores.
Christine Augustine - Analyst
Great, thank you very much.
Operator
Brian Eisenberg (ph).
Brian Eisenberg - Analyst
Good morning.
I was wondering if you could give us some color on how your downtown locations are doing, versus the malls, because one of the issues in the past has been declining mall traffic.
And given the state of the economy for the last three years, the downtown shopping locations have been hit by various things.
I was wondering if you could give us some light there.
And also, considering you're putting new five-story Bloomberg (ph) location in downtown San Francisco?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
I don't have it split between the downtown stores and our mall stores.
I don't think there is a huge difference in performance based on that factor.
Brian Eisenberg - Analyst
So you are seeing about similar store comps?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
I don't know.
I haven't looked at the data that way.
Brian Eisenberg - Analyst
Okay, thank you.
Operator
Teresa Donohue (ph), Neuburger Berman.
Teresa Donohue - Analyst
Good morning, Karen.
Two quick questions.
First, the transition related markdowns for Florida -- was that incorporated into your previous earnings guidance?
And secondly, the accounts receivable increase, I assume that means it's a positive indicator on utilization (indiscernible)?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
Yes, that is very good news on the accounts receivable.
We like that, because that means people are using our cards more, which is good.
Teresa Donohue - Analyst
That's the first increase in a long time, I believe.
Karen Hoguet - CFO
I believe it is.
I'd have to go back and check that, but I think it is, so we are pleased with that.
And, yes, our guidance does include the Florida onetime costs.
Teresa Donohue - Analyst
Thanks.
Operator
David Berman, Berman Capital.
Steve Kernkraut - Analyst
This is Steve Kernkraut from Berman.
The question was on the promotional strategy.
If you're going from less pre-print to more television, what are you going to be doing in terms of -- it seems that in the prior years, every week there was a different coupon event.
So, how are you going to be communicating that as effectively on television, and/or are you going to go to far less coupons this year?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
We are going to less coupons, but remember that that's being tested only in three markets.
It's not companywide yet.
And in fact, that's one of the things we're trying to test is to make sure we can keep the business going with this change in advertising.
Steve Kernkraut - Analyst
And how flexible do you end up being in the sense where, depending on what the competitive environment is, you can always throw coupons back into this cycle if you see (indiscernible) you can always start couponing again in early December.
There is no great leadtime.
Karen Hoguet - CFO
Correct.
Steve Kernkraut - Analyst
Secondly, on the Cap Ex depreciation question, if you don't really have that many growth opportunities internally, what is the status, what is the view in terms of acquiring or starting other businesses?
I know May's (ph) is setting up all these specialty stores, but is that something you're at least contemplating or you are sticking to the acquisition of department store properties when they come available?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
Steve at this point, we believe the best way of adding value for you all is to get the comp store sales growing and accelerated back to the 2-3 percent range.
And at this point, we're not contemplating starting any new and different businesses.
We don't believe that is where we can add the most value for you.
Steve Kernkraut - Analyst
Thank you very much.
Good luck.
Operator
Karen Young, Allstate.
Karen Young - Analyst
My question has been answered.
Thank you.
Operator
Michael Fern (ph), JLF Asset Management.
Jeff Feinberg - Analyst
Good morning, it's actually Jeff Feinberg.
Good morning, Karen, congratulations.
Two quick follow-ups.
With regard to the markdowns in Florida, could you give us a sense of how much those costs are, these transition costs this quarter?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
What we had said was we expect the cost this quarter to be $5-$10 million and some of that will be markdowns, some of that will be falling into the SG&A category.
I don't have the markdowns split between fourth and first quarter precisely yet.
Jeff Feinberg - Analyst
I'm sorry -- you don't have the amount, that $5-$10.
Karen Hoguet - CFO
There happens to be two $5-$10 million estimates, one is for how much we're going to spend on the Florida integration in the fourth quarter.
Coincidentally, the markdown number is also $5-$10 million, but that is not all going to be in the fourth quarter.
Jeff Feinberg - Analyst
So just to make sure I understand.
These store closing costs, that will be this quarter, that's $5-$10 million?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
That includes the markdowns.
Jeff Feinberg - Analyst
So the $10-$15 total store closing costs in the fourth quarter include the Florida markdowns costs?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
That is correct.
That also includes the end of the Atlanta.
Jeff Feinberg - Analyst
Okay and that is $10-$15 million, call it a nickel a share, that is incorporated into this EPS guidance you already gave?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
Correct.
Jeff Feinberg - Analyst
Thank you.
The other question just at a big picture level, I heard you comment about margins flattish year-to-date.
You're not expecting anything different.
But if you sort of look at whether it's your own performance this quarter, May's performance, what we're hearing a big improvement at Dillard's, all of the players in the industry, even Dillard's having inventories 4, 5, 6 percent and having demand just picked up with comps accelerating and having nice margin improvements now.
For you guys, 70 basis points this quarter, and I think what you said for the fourth quarter.
Given that backdrop, why would it not make sense to have margin improvements going forward?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
The inventory levels I don't think are going to keep coming down for the same degree that they do.
Put differently, I don't think inventory turnover is going to speed up as much as it has over the last 12-18 months.
So I don't see the same opportunity for improvement.
I would like to dream of the scenario where that happens, Jeff, but I certainly would not count on it.
Jeff Feinberg - Analyst
Okay.
Even if inventories don't go down anymore, there's still the growth (indiscernible) down 5 percent, it's still way below sales growth, and that seems to be the case for the industry.
I wondered if there is any offset to the supply demand equation of demand better, supply less that is causing that conservative nature?
Karen Hoguet - CFO
I don't think so.
Jeff Feinberg - Analyst
Okay, thank you very much.
Operator
There are no questions in queue at this time.
Karen Hoguet - CFO
Wonderful.
Thank you very much.