Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Lloyds Banking Group 2025 half year results call. (Operator Instructions) There will be presentations from Charlie Nunn and William Chalmers followed by a question-and-answer session (Operator Instructions) Please note this call is scheduled for 90 minutes and is being recorded. I will now hand over to Charlie Nunn, please go ahead.

感謝您的支持，歡迎參加勞埃德銀行集團 2025 年上半年業績電話會議。（操作員指示）Charlie Nunn 和 William Chalmers 將進行演講，隨後進行問答環節（操作員指示）請注意，本次通話預計持續 90 分鐘，並且正在錄音。現在我將把時間交給 Charlie Nunn，請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our 2025 half year results presentation. I'll start today with an overview of our financial and strategic performance, where we've continued to make strong progress having moved into the second day of our transformation at the beginning of the year. I'll then hand over to William, who will run through the financials in detail before we take your questions. Let me begin on slide 3.

謝謝接線員，大家早安，謝謝大家參加我們的2025年半年業績發表會。今天，我將首先概述我們的財務和策略業績，自年初轉型進入第二天以來，我們繼續取得了強勁進展。然後我將把時間交給威廉，他將詳細介紹財務狀況，然後我們再回答你們的問題。我從幻燈片 3 開始。

I'd like to start by highlighting the following key messages. Firstly, we're continuing to deliver strong outcomes for all stakeholders. Our strategy is providing our customers with leading propositions and supporting the real economy, creating attractive growth opportunities and improved operating leverage across the group. We're on track to meet our 2026 targeted strategic outcomes.

首先我想強調以下幾個關鍵訊息。首先，我們將繼續為所有利害關係人帶來強勁成果。我們的策略是為客戶提供領先的主張並支持實體經濟，創造有吸引力的成長機會並提高整個集團的營運槓桿。我們正按計劃實現 2026 年目標策略成果。

Secondly, we continue to demonstrate broad-based and sustained strength in financial funds. This has enabled continued improvement in shareholder distributions with the ordinary dividend up 15% at the interim stage. And finally, we remain confident of delivering higher, more sustainable returns. We are reaffirming our guidance for 2025 and remain confident in our 2026 commitments.

其次，我們的金融資金持續表現出廣泛而持續的強勁勢頭。這使得股東分配持續改善，中期普通股息成長了 15%。最後，我們仍然有信心實現更高、更永續的回報。我們重申對 2025 年的指導，並對 2026 年的承諾充滿信心。

On slide 4, I'll provide a few examples of how we're successfully delivering for all our stakeholder. We continue to build a highly differentiated franchise. Our purpose is embedded throughout our business and is driving sustainable and profitable growth. For example, we continue to take a leading role and support critically important housing sector, lending more than GBP8 billion to first-time buyers, and supporting over GBP1 billion of funding to the social housing sector in the first half.

在第 4 張投影片中，我將提供一些範例，說明我們如何成功為所有利害關係人提供服務。我們將繼續打造高度差異化的特許經營權。我們的宗旨貫穿我們的業務，並推動可持續和盈利的成長。例如，我們繼續發揮主導作用，支持至關重要的住房領域，上半年向首次購房者提供了超過 80 億英鎊的貸款，並為社會住房領域提供了超過 10 億英鎊的資金支持。

At the same time, we're delivering growth through our strategic initiatives in a number of areas. This includes significantly increasing our penetration of protection products for mortgage customers and gaining share in sterling interest rate swaps. This business momentum is underpinning our sustained strength and financial performance. We delivered growth across both sides of the balance sheet and a 6% increase in net income, including ongoing OOI strength, up 9% in the first half.

同時，我們透過多個領域的策略舉措實現成長。這包括大幅提高我們針對抵押貸款客戶的保護產品的滲透率，並增加英鎊利率互換的份額。這種業務動能支撐著我們持續的實力和財務表現。我們實現了資產負債表兩端的成長，淨收入成長了 6%，其中包括持續的 OOI 成長，上半年成長了 9%。

This supports a return on tangible equity of 14.1% for the half and 86 basis points of capital generation. Our highly capital-generative business model is a key enabler to increasing shareholder distributions. Before covering our strategic progress in the first half in more detail, I'll briefly highlight on slide 5, where we believe the external environment provides a supportive backdrop to our plans over the coming years. Our current forecast for the UK remains one of a resilient but slower growth economy.

這支持了上半年有形資產回報率 14.1% 和資本產生率 86 個基點。我們高度資本產生的商業模式是增加股東分配的關鍵推動因素。在詳細介紹我們上半年的策略進展之前，我將在第 5 張投影片上簡要強調一下，我們認為外部環境為我們未來幾年的計畫提供了支持性背景。我們目前對英國經濟的預測仍然是具有韌性但成長放緩。

William will provide more detail on our latest estimates shortly.

威廉將很快提供有關我們最新估計的更多詳細資訊。

The economic environment and uncertainty remains difficult for some of our customers. However, the underlying fundamentals continue to strengthen. And alongside new policy measures, we see the opportunity for the economy to move to a higher growth trajectory that is forecast today over the medium term.

對於我們的一些客戶來說，經濟環境和不確定性仍然很困難。然而，基本面繼續增強。隨著新政策措施的出台，我們看到經濟有機會在中期內邁向今天預測的更高成長軌跡。

To elaborate on this, I'd highlight the following key points. Third, the underlying health of the economy remains robust. Households and businesses finances have further strengthened in the first half and business confidence remains above the long-term average. There is scope for increased activity as confidence further improves and rates fall.

為了詳細說明這一點，我想強調以下幾個重點。第三，經濟基本面依然強勁。上半年家庭和企業財務狀況進一步增強，商業信心仍高於長期平均。隨著信心進一步增強和利率下降，活動將有增加的空間。

Secondly, the government has placed a clear focus on growth. The recently launched industrial strategy will provide significant investment into faster growing and high potential sectors, and we welcome the ambition of the announced financial services reforms. We are well positioned to be an important partner to both sets of plans. And finally, despite significant geopolitical uncertainty in recent months.

其次，政府明確以成長為中心。最近推出的產業策略將為成長更快、潛力更大的產業提供大量投資，我們對宣布的金融服務改革的雄心表示歡迎。我們有能力成為這兩套計畫的重要夥伴。最後，儘管近幾個月來地緣政治存在著很大不確定性。

The UK is well placed to navigate any headwinds relative to other economies and remains an attractive destination for foreign direct investment.

與其他經濟體相比，英國有能力應對任何不利因素，並且仍然是吸引外國直接投資的理想目的地。

Taken together, we are constructive on the outlook for the UK economy with our strategy focused on faster-growing areas, such as housing, transition finance, infrastructure and pensions. As such, we see the potential for the group to continue to grow faster than the wider economy over the coming years. Let me now cover some examples of the growth we are driving through our strategic initiatives on slide 6.

總的來說，我們對英國經濟前景持樂觀態度，我們的策略重點在於住房、過渡融資、基礎設施和退休金等成長較快的領域。因此，我們認為未來幾年該集團有潛力繼續以高於整體經濟的速度成長。現在，讓我在第 6 張投影片中介紹我們透過策略舉措推動的成長的一些例子。

In February, we provided more details on how we're accelerating our transformation in the second phase over 2025 and '26, we've delivered strong progress in the first half of the year and are on track to achieve our '26 targeted strategic outcomes. We're delivering on our growth priorities with meaningful contributions from all divisions and increasing synergies between them. In Retail we're winning market share in lending, deepening relationships and growing high-value areas, such as through our new Lloyd's Premier offering following a successful launch in May.

今年 2 月，我們提供了更多關於如何在 2025 年和 2026 年第二階段加速轉型的細節，我們在今年上半年取得了強勁進展，並有望實現 2026 年的目標策略成果。我們正在透過各部門的有意義的貢獻以及不斷增強各部門之間的協同作用來實現我們的成長重點。在零售領域，我們正在贏得貸款市場份額，深化關係並發展高價值領域，例如透過我們於 5 月成功推出的全新勞合社 Premier 服務。

In Commercial Banking, we are digitizing and driving OOI accretive diversification, gaining share in priority areas. And in IPNI, we are transforming engagement and increasing group connectivity, we now have more than 0.5 million users of our Scottish Widows app and are expanding our product set for retail customers, improving our bancassurance model. We continue to expect to deliver more than GBP1.5 billion of additional revenues from strategic initiatives by 2026, with over GBP1 billion delivered to date on an realized basis.

在商業銀行業務方面，我們正在數位化並推動OOI增值多樣化，在重點領域中獲得份額。在 IPNI，我們正在改變參與方式並增強群體連接性，現在我們的蘇格蘭寡婦應用程式擁有超過 50 萬用戶，並且正在擴展針對零售客戶的產品組合，改進我們的銀保模式。我們預計到 2026 年，策略性舉措將帶來超過 15 億英鎊的額外收入，迄今已實現超過 10 億英鎊的收入。

Now turning to cost and efficiency on slide 7. Alongside growing revenues, our commitment to efficiency is paramount to driving sustained operating leverage. We continue to focus on increasing productivity as our customers shift to mobile first as well as decreasing costs associated with our reducing legacy technology estate. Having surpassed our original target in the first phase, we realized another GBP300 million of gross cost savings in the first half, taking the total to circa GBP1.5 billion since 2021.

現在轉到投影片 7 上的成本和效率。除了增加收入之外，我們對效率的承諾對於推動持續的經營槓桿至關重要。隨著我們的客戶首先轉向行動設備，我們將繼續專注於提高生產力，並降低與減少遺留技術資產相關的成本。在第一階段超額完成原定目標之後，我們上半年又實現了 3 億英鎊的總成本節約，自 2021 年以來，總成本節約已達到約 15 億英鎊。

At the same time, we're continuing to improve capital efficiency through growth in fee-generating cap-light areas and further scaling of SRTs and new origination capabilities. This supported more than GBP2 billion of additional RWA optimization in the first half, taking the total to circa GBP20 billion since 2021. I -- our continued strong progress in these areas underpins our confidence in delivering a cost-to-income ratio of below 50% and more than 200 basis points of capital generation in 2026.

同時，我們將繼續透過增加收費低資本領域的收入以及進一步擴大 SRT 和新的發起能力來提高資本效率。這支持了上半年超過 20 億英鎊的額外 RWA 優化，使 2021 年以來的總額達到約 200 億英鎊。我們在這些領域持續取得的強勁進展鞏固了我們在 2026 年實現成本收入比低於 50% 和資本創造超過 200 個基點的信心。

Moving on to our enablers on slide 8. Our track record of digital, AI and data investment is unlocking a competitive advantage with leadership in this area being critical to long-term success. Significantly rationalizing and modernizing our state in the first phase of our plan has created the capacity to increasingly shift our focus to driving revenue growth and further efficiency savings across three areas. Firstly, we're delivering leading experiences to our nearly 21 million mobile app users to drive increased engagement and build deeper relationships. Secondly, we're broadening our addressable revenue base by growing beyond financial services, such as through home and travel ecosystems and our market intelligence data propositions.

繼續討論幻燈片 8 上的推動因素。我們在數位、人工智慧和數據投資方面的業績記錄正在釋放競爭優勢，而該領域的領導地位對於長期成功至關重要。在我們計劃的第一階段，我們對國家進行了大幅的合理化和現代化，使我們能夠將重點逐漸轉移到推動三個領域的收入成長和進一步提高效率節約。首先，我們為近 2,100 萬行動應用用戶提供領先的體驗，以增強參與度並建立更深的關係。其次，我們正在透過超越金融服務來擴大我們的潛在收入基礎，例如透過家庭和旅行生態系統以及我們的市場情報數據主張。

And thirdly, we're digitizing front to back through improved journeys and increased automation, reducing unit costs and the cost of change. Looking ahead, our multiyear investment in leading engineering talent is helping us to increase adoption of our new technologies that will drive the next stage of our transformation.

第三，我們透過改進流程和提高自動化程度來實現從前到後的數位化，從而降低單位成本和變更成本。展望未來，我們對領先工程人才的多年投資將幫助我們提高新技術的採用率，從而推動我們轉型的下一階段。

To this end, we're building upon our existing AI leadership position with more than 800 AI models live today by developing and scaling a significant number of exciting generative and agentic AI use cases across the group. For example, over 10,000 frontline colleagues are currently using our Gen AI knowledge management tool, to help them support customers better and more effectively. We will share more details on these and our broader technology and data strategy in an investor seminar later this year.

為此，我們正在透過在整個集團內開發和擴展大量令人興奮的生成性和代理性 AI 用例，鞏固我們現有的 AI 領導地位（目前有超過 800 個 AI 模型）。例如，目前有超過 10,000 名第一線同事正在使用我們的 Gen AI 知識管理工具，以幫助他們更好、更有效地為客戶提供支援。我們將在今年稍後的投資者研討會上分享有關這些以及我們更廣泛的技術和數據策略的更多細節。

Let me now close on slide 9. We continue to successfully execute against our strategy and are on track to deliver our 2026 talented outcomes. This reinforces our confidence in meeting our 2026 financial commitments with significant operating leverage supporting a return on tangible equity of greater than 15% and greater than 200 basis points of capital generation. Thank you for listening. I'll now hand over to William to talk you through the financials in more detail.

現在讓我以第 9 張投影片作為結束。我們將繼續成功執行我們的策略，並有望實現 2026 年的卓越成果。這增強了我們履行 2026 年財務承諾的信心，顯著的經營槓桿支持有形股權回報率超過 15% 和資本產生超過 200 個基點。謝謝您的聆聽。現在我將把時間交給威廉，讓他更詳細地向您介紹財務狀況。

Thank you, Charlie. Good morning, everyone, and thanks again for joining. As usual, let me start with an overview of the financials on slide 11. Lloyds Banking Group demonstrated sustained strength in financial performance during the first six months of the year. Statutory profit after tax in the first half was GBP2.5 billion with a return on tangible equity of 14.1%.

謝謝你，查理。大家早安，再次感謝大家的加入。像往常一樣，讓我先從第 11 張投影片上的財務概況開始。勞埃德銀行集團今年上半年的財務表現持續強勁。上半年法定稅後利潤為25億英鎊，有形資產回報率為14.1%。

Net income of GBP8.9 billion was 6% higher than the prior year. This was driven by continued momentum in net interest income alongside 9% year-on-year growth in other operating income. We remain committed to efficiency. H1 operating costs of GBP4.9 billion were up 4% year-on-year, in line with our expectations for this stage.

淨收入為89億英鎊，比上年增長6%。這是由於淨利息收入持續成長以及其他營業收入年增 9% 所致。我們始終致力於提高效率。上半年營運成本為 49 億英鎊，年增 4%，符合我們現階段的預期。

Asset quality meanwhile remains robust, H1 impairment charge of GBP442 million equates to an asset quality ratio of 19 basis points. Our performance resulted in strong capital generation of 86 basis points in the first half.

同時，資產品質依然強勁，上半年減損費用 4.42 億英鎊，相當於資產品質比率 19 個基點。我們的業績表現強勁，上半年資本產生了 86 個基點。

This supports our 15% increase in the interim dividend alongside our closing pro forma CET1 ratio of 13.8%. I'll now turn to slide 12 to look at developments in our customer franchise. Our customer balances showed good growth in the first six months across both the lending and the deposit franchise. Focusing on Q2, Group lending balances of GBP471 million were up GBP4.8 billion or 1% versus Q1. We saw broad-based growth across all of our lending activities.

這支持了我們將中期股息提高 15%，同時使我們的期末 CET1 比率達到 13.8%。我現在翻到第 12 張投影片來了解我們的客戶特許經營的發展。前六個月，我們的客戶餘額在貸款和存款業務方面均呈現良好成長。關注第二季度，集團貸款餘額為 4.71 億英鎊，較第一季增加 48 億英鎊，增幅為 1%。我們所有貸款活動均實現了廣泛成長。

Within retail, loans and advances were up GBP3.1 billion. Mortgage book is up GBP0.8 billion since March, reflecting accelerated growth in the first quarter, driven by stamp duty changes. In this context, it's good to see volumes picking up again June.

在零售領域，貸款和預付款增加了 31 億英鎊。自 3 月以來，抵押貸款帳簿增加了 8 億英鎊，反映出受印花稅變化推動的第一季成長加速。在此背景下，很高興看到六月交易量再次回升。

But we're in retail business, we saw continued and broad-based growth across each of our cards, loans and motor businesses as well as European retail. Commercial lending balances were also up in Q2 by GBP0.9 billion. Within this, we saw growth in CIB, particularly infrastructure and SPG lending. In BCB payments were driven by government-backed lending balances. Excluding these, it's good to see the private lending business growing in the first six months, including in Q2.

但我們從事零售業務，我們的信用卡、貸款和汽車業務以及歐洲零售業務都實現了持續廣泛的成長。第二季商業貸款餘額也增加了 9 億英鎊。其中，我們看到 CIB 有所成長，尤其是基礎設施和 SPG 貸款。在 BCB，付款由政府支持的貸款餘額推動。除此之外，很高興看到私人借貸業務在前六個月（包括第二季）有所成長。

Turning to liability franchise. Again, we saw a good performance in deposits, up GBP6.2 billion or 1% in Q2, now standing at GBP494 billion. Retail increased by GBP1 billion. Notably, savings accounts were up GBP2.9 billion, following significant inflows to ISA products in what was a very strong season, offset by current accounts down GBP1.9 billion, largely reflecting the same flows. Post tax and ISA driven migration is, of course, slowing Commercial deposits were up in Q2 by GBP5.3 billion.

轉向責任特許經營。我們再次看到存款表現良好，第二季增加了 62 億英鎊，即 1%，目前達到 4,940 億英鎊。零售額增加了10億英鎊。值得注意的是，由於本季資金大量流入 ISA 產品，儲蓄帳戶增加了 29 億英鎊，而經常帳戶減少了 19 億英鎊，這在很大程度上反映了相同的資金流入。當然，稅後和個人儲蓄帳戶 (ISA) 驅動的移民正在放緩，第二季商業存款增加了 53 億英鎊。

This was driven by growth in targeted sectors across both CIB and BCB.

這是由 CIB 和 BCB 目標產業的成長所推動的。

Alongside deposit developments in banking, we continue to see steady AUM growth in insurance, pensions and investments. with circa GBP2 billion of net new money in Q2.

隨著銀行存款的發展，我們繼續看到保險、退休金和投資領域的 AUM 穩步成長。第二季淨新增資金約 20 億英鎊。

Turning to interest income on slide 13. Net interest income grew 5% first half to GBP6.7 billion. This included GBP3.4 billion in Q2, growth of 2% versus the prior quarter. Income growth continues to be supported by positive momentum in the net interest margin, with the Q2 margin of 3 or 4 basis points, up slightly on Q1. The mortgage refinancing and deposit churn headwinds continue to be more than offset by a growing structural hedge contribution.

轉到第 13 張投影片上的利息收入。上半年淨利息收入成長 5%，達到 67 億英鎊。其中第二季為 34 億英鎊，較上一季成長 2%。淨利差的正面動能持續支撐著營收成長，第二季淨利差為 3 或 4 個基點，較第一季略有上升。抵押貸款再融資和存款流失的不利因素繼續被不斷增長的結構性對沖貢獻所抵消。

NII was further supported by AIEAs of GBP460 billion in Q2, up GBP4.5 billion versus Q1.

NII 得到了第二季 4,600 億英鎊 AIEA 的進一步支持，比第一季增加了 45 億英鎊。

The increase was driven by the impact of strong mortgage growth towards the end of the first quarter. The Q2 nonbanking NII charge was GBP124 million, slightly up quarter-on-quarter, in line with our expectations for an upward trajectory across the year. As usual, this is driven by business growth in ROI and associated funding repricing. Looking ahead, we continue to expect net interest income for 2025 to be circa GBP13.5 billion. H2 growth will be driven by gradual margin improvements in the IEA growth from franchise expansion.

這一增長是受到第一季末強勁抵押貸款增長的影響所致。第二季非銀行 NII 費用為 1.24 億英鎊，較上季略有上升，符合我們對全年上升趨勢的預期。像往常一樣，這是由投資回報率的業務成長和相關資金重新定價所推動的。展望未來，我們預計2025年的淨利息收入仍約為135億英鎊。下半年成長將由特許經營擴張帶來的 IEA 利潤率的逐步提高所推動。

Let's turn to the mortgage portfolio on slide 14. The mortgage book now stands at GBP318 million. This is up GBP5.6 billion in H1, 0.8 billion in Q2. increase mortgage balances are a result of healthy underlying market demand as well as our strategic initiatives in this area, helping to support a 19% market share of net new lending in the first half. In Q2, completion margins averaged around 70 basis points, slightly tighter than the prior quarter.

讓我們來看看第 14 張投影片上的抵押貸款組合。目前抵押貸款總額為3.18億英鎊。上半年增加了 56 億英鎊，第二季增加了 8 億英鎊。抵押貸款餘額的增加是健康的潛在市場需求以及我們在該領域的戰略舉措的結果，有助於支撐上半年 19% 的淨新增貸款市場份額。第二季度，完工利潤率平均約 70 個基點，比上一季略有下降。

Maturities in the book meanwhile remained higher at just over 90 basis points. Based on current applications, we expect the market to remain competitive and completion margins to be at or around Q2 levels in the second half. Needless to say, this will depend on short rate volatility, competitive dynamics and no doubt, product margins elsewhere.

同時，帳面到期收益率仍維持在較高水平，略高於 90 個基點。根據目前的應用情況，我們預計市場將保持競爭力，下半年完成利潤率將達到或接近第二季的水平。不用說，這將取決於短期利率波動、競爭動態，以及其他地方的產品利潤率。

As Charlie mentioned, we continue to enhance our depth of customer relationships in mortgages, including across business areas. 20% of new mortgage customers now take up protection insurance, an increase of 7 percentage points versus last year. We also recently launched a new digital remortgage journey, delivering increased share of direct-to-bank applications, up 4 percentage points to 25% in H1. Together, these initiatives help offset margin pressure.

正如 Charlie 所提到的，我們繼續加強抵押貸款領域的客戶關係深度，包括跨業務領域。目前，20% 的新抵押貸款客戶購買了保護保險，比去年增加了 7 個百分點。我們最近也推出了新的數位再抵押貸款服務，上半年直接向銀行申請的份額增加了 4 個百分點，達到 25%。這些措施共同幫助抵銷了利潤壓力。

Now looking at the other lending books on slide 15. Consumer lending balances are performing well. Within both cards and loans, our strategic investment in tools such as your credit score used by 4.8 million customers in the last three months alone, is enabling us to drive growth by leveraging data to enhance decision-making and personalization. Accompanied by an improved risk scorecard, this is supporting growth in our personal loans business, with balances up GBP0.8 billion since year-end.

現在看一下投影片 15 上的其他借閱書籍。消費貸款餘額表現良好。在信用卡和貸款領域，我們對信用評分等工具進行了策略性投資，僅在過去三個月就有 480 萬客戶使用了這些工具，這使我們能夠利用數據來增強決策和個人化，從而推動成長。加上風險記分卡的改進，這支持了我們的個人貸款業務的成長，自年底以來餘額增加了 8 億英鎊。

Alongside, card balances were up GBP0.7 billion in motor finance lending about the same. In the commercial book, lending balances increased by GBP1.2 billion in the first half. This was driven by growth of GBP1.8 billion in the CIB business, particularly institutional balances alongside securitized products. In BCB, balances were down GBP0.6 billion, but as I said earlier, up GBP0.2 billion when adding back government lending repayments.

同時，汽車金融貸款的卡片餘額也增加了 7 億英鎊。在商業帳簿中，上半年貸款餘額增加了12億英鎊。這是由於 CIB 業務增長了 18 億英鎊，特別是機構餘額和證券化產品。在 BCB，餘額減少了 6 億英鎊，但正如我之前所說，加上政府貸款償還後，餘額增加了 2 億英鎊。

Delivery of the initiatives highlighted in Charlie's section earlier, such as mobile onboarding SME clients is clearly having an impact here. Moving on to deposits on slide 16. I -- our deposit franchise grew strongly in the first half of the year. Total deposits are up by GBP11.2 billion or 2% to GBP494 million. Within this, retail deposits increased by GBP0.7 billion.

查理之前在文章中強調的舉措的實施，例如行動入職中小企業客戶，顯然在這裡產生了影響。前往投影片 16 上的存款。我們的存款業務在上半年強勁成長。總存款增加了 112 億英鎊，即 2%，達到 4.94 億英鎊。其中零售存款增加7億英鎊。

Continued growth in savings balances more than offset current account reductions. Retail savings were up GBP4.9 billion, supported by net new money inflows and strong retention activity. This included a strong performance throughout what was a busy ISA season, up 30% on last year. Notably, our existing and new ISA customers are valuable to us with average product holdings of almost 2x the group average.

儲蓄餘額的持續成長足以抵銷經常帳戶的減少。受淨新資金流入和強勁的保留活動推動，零售儲蓄增加了 49 億英鎊。這包括在繁忙的 ISA 季節的強勁表現，比去年增長了 30%。值得注意的是，我們現有和新的 ISA 客戶對我們來說非常有價值，他們的平均產品持有量幾乎是集團平均的 2 倍。

Current account balances meanwhile fell slightly in the first half by GBP0.7 billion. Flows were driven by switches to savings, including ISAs, whilst wage growth and spend remains broadly stable. Pleasingly, commercial deposits increased by in H1 by GBP7.6 billion, driven by growth in targeted across both BCB and CIB. As you're aware, our deposit franchise supports the structural hedge, which I'll now update on.

同時，上半年經常帳餘額小幅下降了7億英鎊。資金流動是由轉向儲蓄（包括個人儲蓄帳戶）所推動的，而薪資成長和支出則基本上保持穩定。令人高興的是，受 BCB 和 CIB 目標存款成長的推動，上半年商業存款增加了 76 億英鎊。如您所知，我們的存款特許經營權支持結構性對沖，我現在將對此進行更新。

Our structural hedge continues to provide a significant and growing tailwind to income. The hedge notional currently stands at GBP244 billion, up GBP2 billion in Q2. This follows strong deposit performance in the first half. In H1, we saw gross hedge income of GBP2.6 billion, around GBP0.7 billion higher than last year. The average earnings rate on the hedge was circa 2.2% in Q2.

我們的結構性對沖繼續為收入提供顯著且不斷增長的推動力。目前對沖名目金額為 2,440 億英鎊，比第二季增加了 20 億英鎊。這是繼上半年存款表現強勁之後的另一個表現。上半年，我們的總對沖收入為 26 億英鎊，比去年同期高出約 7 億英鎊。第二季對沖的平均收益率約為 2.2%。

The reinvestment rate for maturities meanwhile, continues to be significantly higher than this or around 3.5 years, the weighted average life of the hedge provides strong support for income going forward.

同時，到期再投資率繼續大幅高於這一水平，約為 3.5 年，對沖的加權平均壽命為未來的收入提供了強有力的支持。

Looking ahead, we continue to expect 2025 hedge income to be around GBP1.2 billion higher versus GBP224 million. We also continue to expect 2026 hedge income to be around GBP1.5 billion higher from 2025. Moving on to other income, slide 18. I -- we continue to build momentum in other income across the franchise. Other income of GBP3 million in the first half was up 9% on H1 last year.

展望未來，我們繼續預期 2025 年對沖收入將從 2.24 億英鎊高出約 12 億英鎊。我們也繼續預計 2026 年的對沖收入將比 2025 年高出約 15 億英鎊。繼續討論其他收入，請參閱第 18 張投影片。我——我們繼續在整個特許經營中建立其他收入的勢頭。上半年其他收入為 300 萬英鎊，較去年上半年成長 9%。

This included GBP1.5 billion in the second quarter, also 9% higher year-on-year. Pleasingly, this growth is driven by broad-based momentum across the business and to our strategic initiatives as well as BAU growth. Within retail, 11% growth versus the prior year was supported by higher income from personal current accounts and continued strength in our motor leasing business. In commercial, year-on-year strength in transaction banking income was offset by lower loan markets activity.

其中第二季為 15 億英鎊，年增 9%。令人高興的是，這一成長是由整個業務的廣泛發展勢頭、我們的策略舉措以及 BAU 成長所推動的。在零售業，由於個人活期帳戶收入增加以及汽車租賃業務持續強勁，銷售額較上年增長了 11%。在商業領域，交易銀行收入的同比強勁成長被貸款市場活動的下降所抵消。

Having said that, more recently, we've seen a healthy rebound in client activity levels. Insurance Pensions & Investments delivered a strong performance in the first half, up 6% year-on-year. General Insurance did particularly well with income net of claims up 35%. We Member contributions in workplace pensions meanwhile, also saw good momentum. In equity investments, Lloyds Banking is developing well, with income up 19% year-on-year alongside LDC growth.

話雖如此，最近我們看到客戶活動水平出現了健康反彈。保險、退休金和投資上半年表現強勁，較去年同期成長6%。一般保險表現特別出色，扣除理賠後的收入增加了 35%。同時，我們會員在職場退休金方面的繳款也呈現良好動能。在股權投資方面，勞埃德銀行發展良好，隨著LDC的成長，營收年增19％。

Looking forward, we continue to expect strategic investment and BAU activity to drive ongoing growth in other income. Turning to operating lease depreciation. The first half charge of GBP710 million included GBP355 million in Q2, flat in Q1. This is a good result in the context of further adverse movements in used car prices, particularly electric vehicles over the second quarter. As mentioned at Q1, we implemented a number of significant strategic actions, which have improved business performance and helped offset the impact of both asset growth and car price movements.

展望未來，我們繼續預期策略投資和 BAU 活動將推動其他收入的持續成長。轉向經營租賃折舊。上半年費用為 7.1 億英鎊，其中第二季費用為 3.55 億英鎊，與第一季持平。在第二季二手車價格（尤其是電動車）進一步下跌的背景下，這是一個不錯的結果。正如第一季所提到的，我們實施了一系列重大策略舉措，這些舉措提高了業務績效，並有助於抵消資產成長和汽車價格變動的影響。

These include enhanced used car leasing, remarketing agreements and risk sharing with OEMs. Together, we should meaningfully reduce volatility in operating lease depreciation going forward.

這些措施包括加強二手車租賃、再行銷協議和與 OEM 的風險分擔。我們應該共同努力，大幅降低未來營業租賃折舊的波動性。

Moving to costs on slide 19, the group continues to maintain strong cost discipline. H1 operating costs were GBP4.9 billion, up 4% on the prior year or 2% excluding the previously disclosed front-loaded severance charges in Q1. Second quarter costs of GBP2.3 billion are down quarter on quarter 1, partly helped by investment timing, including lower severance charges. Overall, operating costs are tracking in line with full year expectations, with business growth and inflationary impacts, including National Insurance, partially mitigated by savings driven by our strategic investment.

轉到幻燈片 19 上的成本，該集團繼續保持嚴格的成本紀律。上半年營運成本為 49 億英鎊，比上年增長 4%，若不計第一季先前披露的前期遣散費，則增長 2%。第二季的成本為 23 億英鎊，環比第一季下降，部分原因是投資時機的考慮，包括遣散費的降低。整體而言，營運成本與全年預期一致，業務成長和通膨影響（包括國民保險）部分被我們的策略投資帶來的節省所緩解。

Continued pace of these investment-driven savings, including reduced cost of change, as Charlie highlighted, alongside in growth, gives us confidence in operational leverage and our medium-term cost-to-income ambitions. Looking ahead, we continue to expect operating costs of circa GBP9.7 billion for the full year. Remediation remains low at GBP37 million in the quarter. There was no further charge for motor finance.

正如查理所強調的，這些由投資驅動的節約持續成長，包括降低變更成本，以及成長，使我們對營運槓桿和中期成本收入目標充滿信心。展望未來，我們預計全年營運成本仍約為 97 億英鎊。本季的補救措施仍然較低，為 3700 萬英鎊。汽車融資不再收取任何額外費用。

Let me move to asset quality on slide 20. Asset quality remains robust. Credit quality was stable in the period with either stable or improving new to arrears across our portfolios. Similarly, early warning indicators remained low and stable. For example, minimum repayment levels in cards remain modest as due our CF utilization levels in commercial.

讓我轉到第 20 張投影片上的資產品質。資產品質依然強勁。本期間信貸品質維持穩定，我們投資組合中的欠款情況穩定或有所改善。同樣，預警指標仍然處於低位且穩定。例如，由於我們的商業 CF 利用率水平，信用卡的最低還款水平仍然保持適中。

First half impairment charge was GBP442 million, equating to an asset quality ratio of 19 basis points. Indeed, the second quarter continued the benign trends of the first for the pre- MES asset quality ratio of 15 basis points.

上半年減損費用為4.42億英鎊，相當於資產品質比率為19個基點。事實上，第二季延續了第一季的良性趨勢，MES 之前的資產品質比率為 15 個基點。

In Q2, there was an (inaudible) release of GBP44 million. This consisted of the removal and integration of the Q1 GBP100 million charge to cover tariff risks into our base case assumptions. Alongside, we saw a benefit from improvements to the HPI outlook in retail. Together, the observed performance and MES outcome resulted in a low Q2 impairment charge of GBP133 million, or an asset quarter ratio of 11 basis points.

第二季度，共釋出了 4,400 萬英鎊（聽不清楚）。這包括取消並將第一季 1 億英鎊的費用納入我們的基準假設中，以彌補關稅風險。此外，我們也看到零售業房屋價格指數前景的改善帶來了好處。綜合起來，觀察到的表現和 MES 結果導致第二季度的減值費用較低，為 1.33 億英鎊，或資產季度比率為 11 個基點。

Our stock of ECLs and the balance sheet is now GBP3.5 billion, remaining circa GBP400 million above our base case. We are very confident in the balance sheet given our prime customer base and a prudent approach to risk. We continue to expect the asset quality ratio to be circa 25 basis points for the full year.

我們的預期信用損失和資產負債表存量目前為 35 億英鎊，比我們的基準情況高出約 4 億英鎊。鑑於我們的主要客戶群和審慎的風險處理方式，我們對資產負債表非常有信心。我們繼續預計全年資產品質比率約為25個基點。

Let me briefly update on our latest economic assumptions. We have made minor changes to our macroeconomic forecast since Q1. We now expect 1% growth in GDP in 2025 and a similar level in 2026, slightly lower than previously forecasted. We now expect unemployment to rise a little further, peaking at 5% in 2026. Given this context, we now assume 2 further rate cuts in 2025 and 1 in 26 to a terminal rate of 3.5%. Our assumptions for house prices meanwhile have improved, largely reflecting FCA affordability interest.

讓我簡單介紹一下我們最新的經濟假設。自第一季以來，我們對宏觀經濟預測做了一些小幅調整。我們現在預期 2025 年 GDP 成長率為 1%，2026 年成長率與此類似，略低於先前的預測。我們現在預計失業率將進一步上升，到 2026 年達到 5% 的高峰。有鑑於此背景，我們現在假設 2025 年將再降息 2 次，2026 年將再降息 1 次，最終將終端利率降至 3.5%。同時，我們對房價的假設有所改善，這在很大程度上反映了 FCA 的可負擔性興趣。

Let me now address returns in TNAV on slide 22. The return on tangible equity of 14.1% in the first half is a strong performance, turning 15.5% in Q2. Within the H1 performance, the volatility and other items charge of GBP48 million was driven by negative insurance volatility and the usual fair value unwind partly offset by gains on the sale of our bulk annuities business, which completed in the second quarter.

現在讓我在第 22 張投影片中討論 TNAV 中的回報。上半年有形資產回報率為 14.1%，表現強勁，第二季則達 15.5%。在上半年業績中，4,800 萬英鎊的波動性和其他項目費用是由負面保險波動性和通常的公允價值平倉所驅動，但部分被我們在第二季度完成的大宗年金業務出售收益所抵消。

Tangible net assets per share at 54.5p are up 2.1p since year-end. The increase was driven by profit build and the unwind of the cash flow hedge reserve offset by shareholder distributions, including the full year ordinary dividend payment in April. As usual at this time, TNAV is also temporarily suppressed by an accrual for the share buyback over the H1 close period with no corresponding share count reduction. This is worth 1p per share and will mechanically reverse in Q3.

每股有形淨資產為 54.5 便士，自年底以來上漲 2.1 便士。成長的動力來自於利潤的成長和現金流對沖儲備的解除，以及股東分配的抵消，包括四月份支付的全年普通股息。與往常一樣，此時 TNAV 也會因 H1 收盤期間股票回購的應計費用而暫時受到抑制，且不會相應減少股票數量。這相當於每股 1 便士，並將在第三季度機械逆轉。

Looking ahead, we continue to expect further material TNAV per share growth this year and indeed over the medium term. Alongside, we continue to expect the return on tangible equity for 2025 and to be around 13.5%.

展望未來，我們仍預計今年以及中期內每股淨值將進一步成長。同時，我們繼續預期 2025 年有形股權回報率將達到 13.5% 左右。

Turning now to capital generation on slide 23. Capital generation was strong in the first half of the year, including in the second quarter. Within this, total RWAs ended the first half at GBP231 million. up GBP6.8 billion in H1 and up GBP1.3 billion in Q2. The increase was driven by lending growth, partly offset by optimization activities and credit calibrations. Q2 also saw a partial reversal of the GBP2.5 billion temporary RWAs that we mentioned in Q1.

現在轉到投影片 23 上的資本產生。今年上半年（包括第二季）的資本創造能力強勁。其中，上半年風險加權資產總額為 2.31 億英鎊，上半年增加 68 億英鎊，第二季增加 13 億英鎊。這一增長是由貸款成長推動的，但被優化活動和信貸校準部分抵消。我們在第一季提到的 25 億英鎊臨時風險加權資產在第二季也部分逆轉。

The remaining balance of around GBP1.2 billion will reverse in the third quarter. Just to note that no new additions for CRD-IV secured risk ratings were taken in the first half. We will revisit the position later this year. Given the healthy banking profitability and the interim insurance dividend, capital generation of 86 basis points in the first half was, as said, a strong result.

剩餘約12億英鎊的餘額將在第三季逆轉。需要注意的是，上半年沒有新增 CRD-IV 擔保風險評級。我們將在今年稍後重新審視這一立場。鑑於銀行獲利能力良好以及中期保險紅利，上半年資本產生 86 個基點，正如所說，是一個強勁的業績。

Looking ahead, we continue to expect full year 2025 capital generation to be circa 175 basis points. Capital ratios are strong. closing pro forma CET1 ratio after 50 basis points of ordinary dividend accrual was 13.8%. I'll now move on to capital distributions on slide 24. The group's strong capital generation continues to support sustained growth in shareholder distributions.

展望未來，我們繼續預期 2025 年全年資本創造量將達到約 175 個基點。資本比率強勁。在提列 50 個基點的普通股利後，預計收盤 CET1 比率為 13.8%。我現在將轉到第 24 張投影片上的資本分配。集團強大的資本產生能力持續支持股東分配的持續成長。

Today, the Board announces an increased interim dividend of 1.22p per share, 15% growth on last year. As usual, we will consider further capital distributions at the year-end. Dividends per share have grown consistently over our strategic plan, now ARPU with 80% versus 2021. Alongside this, we have undertaken consecutive and significant share buyback programs. These have reduced the group share count by circa 16% since the end of 2021, supporting growth in value for our shareholders.

今天，董事會宣布將中期股息提高至每股 1.22 便士，比去年增長 15%。與往常一樣，我們將在年底考慮進一步的資本分配。在我們的策略計畫中，每股股息一直持續成長，現在的 ARPU 比 2021 年成長了 80%。除此之外，我們也進行了連續且大規模的股票回購計畫。自 2021 年底以來，這些舉措已使集團股份數量減少了約 16%，從而支持了股東價值的成長。

By executing on our strategy for the benefit of all stakeholders, we expect the profit distribution to continue returning material excess capital to our shareholders. Therefore, we remain committed to paying down to a circa 13% CET1 ratio in 2026, with the end of 2025 being a staging posted towards that target.

透過執行造福所有利害關係人的策略，我們預期利潤分配將繼續為股東帶來大量過剩資本。因此，我們仍致力於在 2026 年將 CET1 比率降至約 13%，並在 2025 年底分階段實現該目標。

Let me now wrap up the financials on slide 25. To summarize, group is showing sustained strength and delivering in line with expectations. In the first six months of the year, we saw continued growth in net income, cost discipline and robust asset quality, driving strong capital generation and increased interim dividend. Looking forward and based on this sustained strength, we feel very comfortable with our 25% guidance and remain confident in our 2026 commitment, both as you can see, are set out in full on the slide.

現在讓我總結一下第 25 張投影片上的財務狀況。總而言之，該集團表現出持續的實力並符合預期。今年上半年，我們的淨收入持續成長，成本控制嚴格，資產品質穩健，推動了強勁的資本產生和中期股息的增加。展望未來，基於這種持續的實力，我們對 25% 的指導感到非常滿意，並對我們的 2026 年承諾充滿信心，正如您所見，這兩點均在幻燈片中完整列出。

Finally, and as you may have seen in the RNS, building on our transformation and consistent with our ambition to move at pace into next year, we intend to move to preliminary reporting this year-end. Accordingly, we'll announce our full year 2025 results on 29th of January 2026, with our full annual report and accounts following on the 18th of February. That concludes my comments for this morning. Thank you for listening. Let me now hand back to Charlie for closing remarks.

最後，正如您可能在 RNS 中看到的那樣，在我們轉型的基礎上，並與我們快速邁入明年的雄心壯志相一致，我們打算在今年年底開始進行初步報告。因此，我們將於 2026 年 1 月 29 日公佈 2025 年全年業績，並於 2 月 18 日發布完整的年度報告和帳目。我今天早上的評論就到此結束。謝謝您的聆聽。現在請查理做最後發言。

Thank you, William. So to briefly summarize I'm very pleased by our strong progress in the first half of the year. We're delivering significant strategic change in the second phase of our transformation and remain on track to meet our 2026 targeted outcomes. This underpins broad-based and sustained strength in financial performance with our highly capital-generative business model, supporting increasing shareholder distributions.

謝謝你，威廉。簡單總結一下，我對我們今年上半年的強勁進展感到非常高興。我們正在進行轉型第二階段的重大策略變革，並將繼續朝著實現 2026 年目標的目標邁進。這為我們高度資本生成業務模式的廣泛而持續的財務表現奠定了基礎，支持了股東分配的增加。

The group remains on a clear path to delivering higher, more sustainable returns. We're reaffirming our 2025 guidance and remain confident in our 2026 commitments. Thank you for listening this morning. That concludes our presentation, and we're now very happy to take your questions.

該集團仍在朝著實現更高、更永續回報的明確方向前進。我們重申 2025 年的指導方針，並對 2026 年的承諾充滿信心。感謝大家今天早上的收聽。我們的演示到此結束，現在我們很高興回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Guy Stebbings, BNP.

（操作員指示）Guy Stebbings，英國國家銀行。

Two questions. The first one was on mortgage spreads. You talked to 70 basis points completion spreads in Q2 was coming a little bit but very much consistent with why the industry data if we stay at that sort of level as suggested, I mean how do you be thinking about backup mortgage spread churn from here? Perhaps you could frame it against that 3 basis points Q-on-Q headwind in terms of how that could moderate into future periods? Or perhaps you could give us the average back spread. Now I presume that's come in much closer to the front book now than was the case a few quarters ago. So even with the slightly tighter front book spreads, the sort of back to front book churn should be easing from here.

兩個問題。第一個是關於抵押貸款利差的。您談到第二季度 70 個基點的完成利差略有上升，但與行業數據非常一致，如果我們保持建議的這種水平，我的意思是您如何考慮從現在開始的備用抵押貸款利差流失？或許您可以將其與環比下降 3 個基點的逆風進行比較，看看這種逆風在未來時期會如何緩和？或者也許您可以給我們平均回差。現在我認為現在的情況比幾個季度前的情況更接近前書了。因此，即使前書價差略為收窄，後書到前書的流失情況也應該會逐漸緩解。

And then the second question was just on deposits, some negative mix effect for the quarter, as you talked before. And again, we've seen that in interest data, given the sort of new tax impact clearly paid a role on ISA flows, are you able to cover those PCA outflows landed largely in April and maybe the start of May and perhaps eased as we got to the end of the quarter? Or were you still seeing some PCA outflows in the month of June for instance?

第二個問題是關於存款的，正如您之前談到的，這對本季產生了一些負面混合影響。而且，我們再次看到，在利息數據中，考慮到新的稅收影響顯然對 ISA 流量產生了影響，您是否能夠彌補 4 月份和 5 月初大量出現的 PCA 流出，並且可能在本季度末有所緩解？或者您仍然看到 6 月份有一些 PCA 流出？

Thank those questions,. I'll take them in turn. First of all, in relation to mortgage spreads. As mentioned in my script, we saw mortgage spreads in the course of quarter two and around 70 basis points. That was probably a couple of basis points tighter than what we had seen during quarter one, not much more than that, but a couple of basis points tighter. When we look at the applications that we're now seeing, which will, of course, be completions in quarter 3, we're looking at spreads that are basically similar.

感謝這些問題。我會依序接待他們。首先，關於抵押貸款利差。正如我在腳本中提到的那樣，我們在第二季度看到了抵押貸款利差約為 70 個基點。這可能比我們在第一季看到的水平收緊了幾個基點，雖然不會太多，但確實收緊了幾個基點。當我們查看現在看到的申請時（當然這些申請將在第三季完成），我們看到的利差基本上相似。

So we're expecting more or less the quarter two patterns in terms of mortgage spreads to continue into quarter three, and then we'll see how we fare during the remainder of the year. But that's the pattern today. You asked about the differential between that and the maturity margins on the book. And the maturity margins just to give you some idea. They're coming out at around 90 to 95 basis points in that zone during the course of Q2, that is going to taper a little bit in the second half of this year.

因此，我們預計抵押貸款利差在第二季度的模式將基本延續到第三季度，然後我們將看看今年剩餘時間的表現如何。但這就是今天的模式。您詢問了這與帳面到期保證金之間的差異。成熟度保證金只是為了給你一些概念。在第二季期間，該區域的利率將達到約 90 至 95 個基點，而今年下半年該水準將略有下降。

But to be clear, both the second half of this year and next year is not totally linear in terms of maturity margins and therefore, the mortgage headwind within any given period might vary with that nonlinearity. Having said that, we do expect the mortgage headwind, as we discussed before, to play out during the course of 2026, we talked in the past about the midyear being about that time zone. We'd be roughly in the same space now.

但需要明確的是，今年下半年和明年的到期利潤率並不是完全線性的，因此，任何特定時期內的抵押貸款逆風都可能隨著這種非線性而變化。話雖如此，我們確實預計抵押貸款逆風將在 2026 年期間顯現，正如我們之前所討論的那樣，我們過去曾談到年中與那個時區有關。我們現在大致處於同一空間。

Clearly, if you get a slight weakness in mortgage margins, it might take a month or two longer, thereabouts, but overall, the picture is much the same as we described to you before, with that give and take.

顯然，如果抵押貸款利潤率略有下降，那麼可能需要一兩個月左右的時間才能恢復，但總體而言，情況與我們之前描述的大致相同，有得有失。

Your second question, in respect to deposit, Guy, couple of points to me. First point is the picture on deposits, as you know, has been actually very favorable during the course of the half. So we've seen deposits up GBP11.3 billion during H1, we've seen deposits up GBP6.3 billion during the course of Q2. So some really good deposit profits, which, of course, we're pleased to see and is balanced across both the retail business, GBP3.7 billion in the half and the commercial business, GBP7.6 billion in the half overall, up 2%. Good to see the deposit franchise working.

蓋伊，你的第二個問題是關於存款，我有幾個要點。第一點是，如你所知，上半年存款情況實際上非常良好。因此，我們看到上半年存款增加了 113 億英鎊，第二季存款增加了 63 億英鎊。因此，存款利潤確實不錯，當然，我們很高興看到這一點，零售業務（上半年為 37 億英鎊）和商業業務（上半年總體為 76 億英鎊）的利潤保持平衡，增長了 2%。很高興看到存款特許經營權發揮作用。

Now within that, there are clearly some moving pieces during Q2. And most notably, you highlighted there the PCA movement PCA movement in Q2 overall down by that 1.9%. I think it's right to see it, Guy, in the context of the half as a whole. So I would look at the GBP0.7 billion down in the half as a whole, simply because within any given quarter, you're going to get different month-end effects that's going to affect the numbers, but GBP0.7 billion down over the course of the half.

現在，第二季度顯然存在一些變動。最值得注意的是，您強調了 PCA 運動，第二季 PCA 運動總體下降了 1.9%。蓋伊，我認為從整個半程的角度來看這個問題是正確的。因此，我會將上半年 7 億英鎊的下降視為一個整體，因為在任何一個季度內，你都會得到不同的月末效應，這將影響數字，但上半年下降了 7 億英鎊。

Alongside of that, we've had a strong ISA season, as I mentioned in my comments earlier on, and to be fair, we are very pleased to participate in that strong ISA season. The overall quantum ISA season is up 30% year-on-year. Our market share of that strong ISA season is at around 20%. We're pleased to see it because these are valuable often -- relatively affluent customers, and we want them to be part of our customer base.

除此之外，正如我之前在評論中提到的那樣，我們經歷了一個強勁的 ISA 季節，公平地說，我們很高興參加這個強勁的 ISA 季節。量子ISA整體季度年增30%。在 ISA 表現強勁的那個季節，我們的市佔率約為 20%。我們很高興看到這一點，因為這些客戶通常很有價值——相對富裕，我們希望他們成為我們客戶群的一部分。

Indeed, many of them are existing Lloyds customers already are, and we're very pleased to attract some new customers into it by virtue of the ISA product offering. In addition to that, ISA customers tend to have broader product holdings with the group, deeper product holdings of the group. And I mentioned in my comments just now that, that was around twice the group average. You asked about the timing of the flows in non-tech, Guy. Just to give you some idea, ISA is inevitably, of course, are connected with the tax year-end.

事實上，他們中的許多人已經是勞埃德銀行的現有客戶，我們很高興透過 ISA 產品吸引一些新客戶。除此之外，ISA 客戶往往持有集團內更廣泛的產品，更深層的產品。我剛才在評論中提到，這大約是該組平均值的兩倍。蓋伊，你詢問了非技術領域的流動時間。只是為了給你一些想法，ISA當然不可避免地與納稅年度結束時有關。

So we saw particularly head lows in March, likewise going into April. But to give you some idea, the flows that we saw in April were then more in half by the time we got to May, and the flows that we saw in June were again 1/3 lower than they have been in May. So you can see the tapering off of the ISA flow during that time period. which gives you some idea that deposit flows are starting to kind of return to normality, if you like, the longer the quarter goes on.

因此，我們在三月看到了特別低的氣溫，四月也是如此。但給你一個大概的印象，到 5 月份，我們看到的 4 月份的流量減少了一半以上，而 6 月份的流量又比 5 月份低了 1/3。因此，您可以看到該時間段內 ISA 流量逐漸減少。這讓您覺得，隨著季度的推移，存款流量開始恢復正常。

Now having said that, we're in a declining base rate environment and you would really expect customers to continue to migrate in that declining base rate environment, at least those that want to secure fixed term deposits. We're very happy to be part of that, Guy. It's a part and parcel of our business. It's pretty much as expected in terms of our expectations and forecast for the duration of this year. And as I said, that's a profitable attractive customer base.

話雖如此，我們正處於基準利率下降的環境中，你確實會預期客戶會在基準利率下降的環境中繼續遷移，至少是那些想要獲得定期存款的客戶。蓋伊，我們很高興能參與其中。這是我們業務不可或缺的一部分。就我們對今年全年的預期和預測而言，這基本上符合預期。正如我所說，這是一個有利可圖且具有吸引力的客戶群。

So hopefully, that gives you some insight into the dynamics of the deposit base, guy.

所以希望這能讓你對存款基礎的動態有所了解，夥計。

Benjamin Toms, RBC.

班傑明‧湯姆斯（Benjamin Toms），加拿大皇家銀行。

The first one is on the structural hedge. I think your guidance implied half two structural hedge contribution is GBP2.8 billion. I get that rounding makes a difference here, but that number is a bit lower than what I was expecting. If I assume that the notional continues to grow a bit. So maybe if you could give us a latest thoughts on where you expect the notional might go to this year and next.

第一個是關於結構性對沖。我認為您的指導暗示了一半的結構性對沖貢獻為 28 億英鎊。我知道這裡的四捨五入有所不同，但這個數字比我預期的要低一些。如果我假設名目金額繼續增長一點。所以，您能否向我們介紹一下您預計今年和明年名目匯率走勢的最新情況？

And then secondly, you showed on the slides that the FCA affordability changes materially impacted your house price expectations. Does it materially change your mortgage volume expectations into the medium term. I would thought it was just a bit helpful around the edges and what's the mortgage pipeline looking like into half two, please?

其次，您在投影片上展示了 FCA 負擔能力變化對您的房價預期產生了重大影響。它是否會從根本上改變您對中期抵押貸款額度的預期？我認為這在邊緣方面有一點幫助，請問下半年的抵押貸款管道是什麼樣的？

I'll take the first. I'll start on the second, and Charlie will add on the second two, Ben. First of all, in terms of the structural hedge, the structural hedge is developing pretty much exactly as we had expected it to over the course of the first half, and we expect to continue to do so over the course of the second. If anything, rates have maybe been a touch stronger than we had expected. So maybe there's a little bit of upside building into that.

我要第一個。我將從第二個開始，查理將補充後兩個，本。首先，就結構性避險而言，結構性避險的發展基本上符合我們在上半年的預期，我們預計下半年將繼續如此。如果有的話，利率可能比我們預期的要高一點。因此，這也許會有一定的好處。

But I wouldn't want to overstate that. It's pretty much according to plan. Now interestingly, what is going on there is, as I said, the expectation for earnings from the structural hedge is going to be GBP1.2 billion higher in '25 than it wasn't before, exactly as we said at the beginning of the year, our expectation '26, again, GBP1.5 billion higher in '26 than it was in '25. And we are getting increasingly confident of that.

但我不想誇大這一點。一切基本上都按照計劃進行。現在有趣的是，正如我所說的，現在發生的情況是，對結構性對沖收益的預期在 25 年將比以前高出 12 億英鎊，正如我們在年初所說的那樣，我們對 26 年的預期是，26 年將比 25 年高出 15 億英鎊。我們對此越來越有信心。

As said, a little bit of rate upside, but let's see how the rest of the rate cycle fares over the next 18 months or so. Specifically what I mean by the confidence, I'm obviously referring to the amount of the hedge that we have locked in. So we now have '25 done, essentially, 97%, 98% in that zone. We have more than 4 fits of '26 locked in as well. And of course, as the days go by, that number is creeping up.

正如所說，利率略有上行，但讓我們看看未來 18 個月左右利率週期的其餘部分錶現如何。具體來說，我所說的信心顯然是指我們鎖定的對沖金額。因此，我們現在已經完成了 25 個，基本上是該區域的 97%、98%。我們還鎖定了 4 多個 26 年的裝備。當然，隨著時間的推移，這個數字正在逐漸上升。

And so as a result, the confidence in the hedge is increasing off the back of increasingly locked in volumes both in respect to '25 and in respect to '26. In any given period, having said that, Ben, you're going to see the structural hedge contribution ebb and flow a little bit. You saw a strong contribution to the margin from the structural hedge in quarter one. I think it was about 10 basis points you saw a slightly weaker but still strong contribution from the structural hedge in quarter two, I think it's about 7 basis points. Looking at because of maturity dynamics, it's going to ebb away a little bit from that, but that's fine.

因此，隨著 2025 年和 2026 年鎖定量的不斷增加，對沖的信心也在增強。話雖如此，本，在任何特定時期，你都會看到結構性對沖貢獻略有起伏。您看到第一季結構性對沖對利潤率做出了巨大貢獻。我認為大約是 10 個基點，你看到第二季度結構性對沖的貢獻略弱但仍然強勁，我認為大約是 7 個基點。從成熟度動態來看，它會稍微消退一點，但這沒關係。

That's pretty much exactly as we planned. And then it will strengthen significantly going into the fourth quarter. I realize -- I mean you're probably more detail than maybe even you want, Ben, but nonetheless, hopefully, it's helpful in terms of giving you the picture as to how we expect structural hedge to mature. As I said, very much consistent with our expectations. One further point to make before I leave that topic, by the time we get to the end of '26, as I think came up at our year-end results, we are still seeing a yield on the structural hedge that is below the yield that we currently see in the market for term offerings.

這幾乎和我們計劃的完全一樣。進入第四季度，這一勢頭將顯著增強。我意識到——我的意思是，你可能比你想要的更詳細，本，但儘管如此，希望它能幫助你了解我們預期結構性對沖將如何成熟。正如我所說，這與我們的預期非常一致。在我結束這個主題之前，我還要指出一點，當我們到達 26 年底時，我認為這是我們年終業績的結果，我們仍然看到結構性對沖的收益率低於我們目前在定期產品市場上看到的收益率。

That means that structural hedge will continue to give us support into the years thereafter, consistent with the weighted average life of the hedge of around 3.5 years. So we're seeing, therefore, the structural hedge play out in, as I said, pretty much exactly the way we expected. I'll add one further point. Having said a second ago, the confidence in the hedge is good to see manifested in the context of the notional balances, which we put up by a couple of billion during the course of this year.

這意味著結構性對沖將在未來幾年繼續為我們提供支持，與約 3.5 年的對沖加權平均壽命一致。因此，正如我所說，我們看到結構性對沖的發揮幾乎與我們預期的完全一致。我再補充一點。正如剛才所說，我們很高興看到對沖的信心在名義餘額的背景下得到體現，我們在今年期間增加了幾十億。

And just referring back to Guy's second question a second ago, the fact that we have put the hedge up by a couple of billion over the course of this year, it shows you the belief that we have and the stability of the deposit behavior that we've seen over H1 as a whole. So that's an insight, I suppose, on a structural hedge, but hopefully also gives a bit of insight into what we've seen in the deposit book as a whole.

剛才蓋伊提出的第二個問題是，我們在今年已經增加了幾十億美元的對沖，這表明了我們的信心，也表明了我們在整個上半年看到的存款行為的穩定性。所以我認為這是對結構性對沖的一種見解，但希望也能讓我們對整個存款帳簿的情況有所了解。

I'll kick off on the second of your questions then on FCA HPI improvements and the like, and then hand over to Charlie. It is fair to say that we see the FCA affordability changes as helpful to the overall prospects for the housing markets. We think it's going to inspire more first-time buyers, we think it's going to aspire more movement, and therefore, strength in HPI and that's what's behind 3%, it's actually 2.6% up this year, then about 3% up next year as expected.

我將從您的第二個問題開始，然後討論 FCA HPI 改進等問題，然後將時間交給 Charlie。公平地說，我們認為 FCA 負擔能力的變化有助於房地產市場的整體前景。我們認為這將激勵更多的首次購房者，我們認為這將激發更多的活動，因此，房屋價格指數將走強，這就是 3% 背後的原因，今年它實際上上漲了 2.6%，然後明年將如預期那樣上漲約 3%。

Mortgage volumes, if you take quarter one and quarter two together, you've got GBP5.6 billion up on mortgages over the course of the first half of this year. That's a good performance. Looking forward, with our HPI strength in mind, we do expect continued mortgage growth over the course of the second half. I'm not going to put a number on it. It may be a touch lower than GBP5.6 billion.

就抵押貸款金額而言，如果將第一季和第二季加在一起，那麼今年上半年的抵押貸款總額將達到 56 億英鎊。表現不錯。展望未來，考慮到我們的房屋價格指數 (HPI) 實力，我們確實預計下半年抵押貸款將繼續增長。我不會給出具體數字。它可能略低於56億英鎊。

Again, that's a pretty pay performance in the first half. But we certainly expect healthy mortgage performance. And indeed, we do expect it to be boosted at the margin by that FCA HPI contribution, Ben.

再次，這是上半年相當不錯的業績。但我們確實預期抵押貸款業績表現良好。事實上，我們確實預計 FCA HPI 的貢獻將在一定程度上提高利潤率，Ben。

The only thing I'd add, Ben, is, I think you can characterize well, it does allow us to compete well around the margin, allow us to do that. We did share last week in the press that the latest changes would enable us to support an extra (technical difficulty)

本，我唯一要補充的是，我認為你可以很好地描述，它確實使我們能夠在邊緣地區很好地競爭，讓我們做到這一點。我們上週確實在媒體上分享了最新的變化，這將使我們能夠支持額外的（技術難度）

talks about some growth related to just corporate uncertainty about the broader environment, just want to get a sense of -- do you expect some of that to reverse in the coming periods? Or is that sticky.

談論一些與企業對更廣泛環境的不確定性相關的成長，只是想了解一下——您是否預計未來一段時間內這種情況會有所逆轉？或者說是黏性的。

Yes. Thanks for those questions, Amit. I'll kick off on the first and the second, Charlie may want to add on the second in particular. But let me just address, first of all, your nonbanking net interest income point, nonbanking net interest income in Q2, as you obviously know, GBP124 million, that is on top of GBP112 million in Q1. So together, GBP239 million. We don't guide to nonbanking net interest income. As you know, we guide to the totality of net interest income at circa GBP13.5 billion.

是的。謝謝你提出這些問題，阿米特。我將從第一點和第二點開始，查理可能特別想補充第二點。但首先，我只想談談您的非銀行淨利息收入點，第二季的非銀行淨利息收入，如您所知，為 1.24 億英鎊，高於第一季的 1.12 億英鎊。所以總計2.39億英鎊。我們不提供非銀行淨利息收入的指導。如您所知，我們預計淨利息收入總額約為 135 億英鎊。

At the same time, we gave some insights at the beginning of the year as to how we expect it to develop over the course of the year. Two points that I would make in respect to that, and which hopefully address your concerns. One is that when we look at it, it is going to be driven by both volume related issues, which in turn, inspire other operating income growth as well as rate trends. And so within that mix, if you like, we're going to not necessarily see any disturbance to other income growth, simply because rates are only -- alongside of that, it isn't going to be linear during the course of the year.

同時，我們在年初就其在今年的發展給出了一些見解。關於這一點我想提出兩點，希望能解決您的擔憂。一是，當我們觀察它時，它會受到與數量相關的問題的驅動，進而激發其他營業收入的成長以及利率趨勢。因此，在這種組合中，如果你願意的話，我們不一定會看到對其他收入成長的任何干擾，僅僅是因為利率只是 - 除此之外，它在一年內不會呈線性變化。

That is to say it's going to accelerate and decelerate over periods during the year, in line effectively with the refinancing obligations that come up for certain tranches of activity, EG within motor. Final point there is that the nature of nonbanking net interest income is going to depend upon the nature of commercial banking income, and in particular, CIB income and therefore, if CIB is growing in some areas, but not others, that is going to affect the trend within nonbanking net interest income because it will drive the extent to which we need to finance part of that CIB activity.

也就是說，它會在一年中的不同時期加速和減速，與某些活動（例如汽車）產生的再融資義務有效一致。最後一點是，非銀行淨利息收入的性質將取決於商業銀行收入的性質，特別是 CIB 收入，因此，如果 CIB 在某些領域增長，而在其它領域沒有增長，這將影響非銀行淨利息收入的趨勢，因為這將決定我們需要為 CIB 活動提供多少資金。

So as a result, there's nothing alarming at all that we're seeing in the on (technical difficulty) strengthened through the course of the second quarter. which is great to see in terms of the relationships that we have with clients and obviously great to see in terms of the performance of the business.

因此，我們看到第二季技術難度加強，這並不令人擔憂。從我們與客戶的關係來看，這是件好事，從業務表現來看，顯然也是好事。

Yes. Look, the only thing I'd add is, obviously, on the large commercial deposits and some of those wells the margin tends to be lower, so it's less of a material, whether it's switching in or out, and we obviously work on that basis. The core point that William just made around SMEs or BCB as we call it, BCA business and deposits is we've continued over the last three years to grow market share.

是的。你看，我唯一要補充的是，顯然，在大型商業礦床和一些油井中，利潤往往較低，因此無論是轉入還是轉出，其重要性都較低，我們顯然在此基礎上開展工作。威廉剛才就中小企業（或我們所謂的 BCB）、BCA 業務和存款提出的核心觀點是，我們在過去三年中一直在持續擴大市場份額。

So we see that really importantly. It's, as you know, the SME segment is a hugely important segment for the economy. It's a very profitable business for Lloyds Banking Group. And it's a very liability-driven business. It's typically only a 30%-ish loan-to-deposit ratio.

所以我們認為這確實很重要。如您所知，中小企業對於經濟來說是一個非常重要的領域。對於勞埃德銀行集團來說，這是一項非常有利可圖的業務。這是一個非常依賴責任的業務。貸款與存款比率通常只有 30% 左右。

So winning in market share there is really important. And we continue to see either win or strength or maintain our position, which is really important.

因此贏得市場佔有率確實很重要。我們繼續看到勝利或實力或保持我們的地位，這真的很重要。

Ben Caven-Roberts, Goldman Sachs.

本·卡文-羅伯茨，高盛。

Just two for me, please. First, on cost of risk. So you had an MES release in the quarter and reiterated the 25 bps guidance for the year. But I do know you took up your unemployment base case a bit and took down GDP assumptions. So how are you thinking on the underlying asset quality of the loan book at the moment given it does sound like you're not expecting any meaningful change in the trends from here given the relatively constructive backdrop you're seeing for the UK economy.

給我兩張就行。第一，關於風險成本。因此，您在本季度發布了 MES，並重申了今年 25 個基點的指導。但我知道你稍微提高了失業率基本預測，並降低了 GDP 假設。那麼，鑑於您所看到的英國經濟相對積極的背景，您似乎並不認為目前的趨勢會發生任何有意義的變化，那麼您如何看待目前貸款帳簿的底層資產品質？

And then secondly, on equity investments, how do you see the opportunity set there, particularly given this was a focus of the recent Mansion House speech?

其次，關於股權投資，您如何看待其中蘊含的機會，尤其是考慮到這是最近 Mansion House 演講的重點？

Thanks for the question, Ben. First of all, maybe just to give a bit of context in terms of impairment during the course of the half and the quarter Half quarter impairment, GBP442 million, as you know, at 19 basis points comfortably inside of our circa '25 guidance for the year. In the half as a whole, ex MES, ex multiple economic scenarios, that is the impairment performance is at around the same level as say, 19 basis points. So it's true pre and post multiple economic scenarios.

謝謝你的提問，本。首先，也許只是提供一些關於上半年和本季減損的背景資訊。上半年減損金額為 4.42 億英鎊，如您所知，為 19 個基點，完全符合我們對 2025 年左右的年度指引。就上半年整體而言，扣除 MES 和多種經濟情景，減損表現大約處於 19 個基點的水平。因此，在多種經濟情景之前和之後，這都是正確的。

But in Q2, we're seeing, as I mentioned in my script earlier on, a similarly benign pattern, 11 basis points, but of course, benefiting in the quarter at least from an MES relief. But if you look beneath that, you will still see within Q2 observed impairments, 15 basis points in terms of the impairment level, which again gives you an idea as to the relatively benign trends that we're seeing and that is across both the retail franchise, particularly benign, but also true within Commercial Banking, where really the only types of impairments that we have seen during the course of the quarter have been idiosyncratic in relation to particular sectors, which have run into some issues. EG, the fiber sector in Q2 has been an example of that.

但在第二季度，正如我之前在腳本中提到的那樣，我們看到了類似的良性模式，即 11 個基點，但當然，至少在本季度受益於 MES 的緩解。但如果你進一步研究，你仍然會看到第二季度觀察到的減值，減值水平為 15 個基點，這再次讓你了解我們所看到的相對良性的趨勢，而且這種趨勢不僅在零售特許經營中尤其良性，而且在商業銀行中也是如此，我們在本季度看到的唯一類型的減值與特定行業有關，這些行業遇到了一些問題。例如，第二季的光纖產業就是一個例子。

So very benign performance across the piece within retail, within commercial. How does that fit with our MES adjustments, if you like, our forecast adjustments? I would make the observation that the changes to forecasts that we've undertaken between quarter one and quarter two have been really at the margin. They are relatively minor overall macro adjustments. GDP, we expect to grow 1% '25, 1% '26 that takes '25 up a little bit because of a strong first quarter.

因此，零售業和商業領域的整體表現非常良好。如果您願意的話，這與我們的 MES 調整以及我們的預測調整有何關係？我想指出的是，我們在第一季和第二季之間所做的預測變化確實只是微不足道的。這些都是相對較小的整體宏觀調整。我們預計 2025 年 GDP 將成長 1%，2026 年將成長 1%，由於第一季表現強勁，2025 年的 GDP 將略有上升。

It takes '26 down a little bit. And then shading up of unemployment, but only by about 20 basis points or so from about 4.8% peak to about 5% peak. And then alongside of that, the HPI change that we mentioned earlier on. In that context, it allows, we think, the Bank of England to accelerate one of the bank base rate changes.

它使 '26 稍微下降了一點。隨後失業率上升，但僅從高峰 4.8% 左右上升至 5% 左右，上升幅度約 20 個基點。除此之外，還有我們之前提到的 HPI 變化。在此背景下，我們認為，它允許英格蘭銀行加速其中一項銀行基準利率的調整。

It was previously going to be '26 in our estimates in '25, you add all of that together, Ben, and the changes in whole are not terribly significant. As we look at the performance of the client base right now, again, both on the retail and also on the commercial side, everything that we're seeing is constructive in terms of that overall macro backdrop. So early warning indicators, for example, new to arrears, minimum repayments within cards, utilization of RCFs or liquidity levels within commercial they're all pretty supportive of a strongly performing customer base, obviously off the back of prudent risk underwriting standards, but also off the back of that relatively stable macro forecast that we're putting out, Ben.

之前我們估計 25 年會是 26 年，本，你把所有這些加在一起，整體的變化並不是太顯著。當我們再次審視目前客戶群的表現時，無論是在零售方面還是在商業方面，我們所看到的一切在整體宏觀背景下都是建設性的。因此，早期預警指標，例如新的欠款、卡內的最低還款額、RCF 的利用率或商業內的流動性水平，它們都非常支持表現強勁的客戶群，顯然是基於審慎的風險承保標準，也是基於我們發布的相對穩定的宏觀預測，本。

Great. And then my second question on Mansion House and the focus on enabling retail investors more broadly indicated to invest more in equities in the UK. But we really welcome this. And in fact, our strategy in '22 assumed this would be a bigger part of the economy going forward. And we're positioned to really take advantage of it. I suppose there's two lenses where there's been regulatory reform focused.

偉大的。然後我的第二個問題是關於 Mansion House 以及讓散戶投資者更廣泛地投資英國股票的重點。但我們確實對此表示歡迎。事實上，我們 2022 年的策略假設這將成為未來經濟的重要組成部分。我們已做好準備，真正利用它。我認為監理改革的重點有兩個面向。

One is through the pensions business. Obviously, pensions is actually the biggest way in which people take equity risk. As you know, DC schemes, which is where our workplace pension business, this is about GBP1 trillion in the UK, with a strong bias towards equities and investments. So we see that there's an ongoing opportunity for us to grow that business. We're launching an LTAF, a long-term asset fund. It's announced now, it's coming in later this year. It will provide more choice to pension customers.

一是透過退休金業務。顯然，退休金實際上是人們承擔股票風險的最大方式。如您所知，DC 計劃（即我們的工作場所退休金業務）在英國的規模約為 1 兆英鎊，主要集中在股票和投資方面。因此，我們看到了持續發展該業務的機會。我們正在推出 LTAF，這是一種長期資產基金。現在已經宣布，將於今年稍後推出。這將為退休金客戶提供更多選擇。

And then the consultation they're doing, which my expectation is it will be a fuse out will come over the next few years to increase contribution rates. Would again, just provide the growth engine that consistent growth engine we have for that business. an opportunity to continue to grow even faster than it is already.

然後他們正在進行磋商，我預計這將成為未來幾年提高繳費率的導火線。再次強調，我們只是為該業務提供了持續的成長引擎，一個以比現在更快的速度繼續成長的機會。

And then the second part is around bringing advice and guidance and helping more broadly the UK population invest in equities and other risk-taking assets. And as you know, the RDR regulation that was launched in 2014 came into effect around 2016, basically limited the ability to provide advice people who had less than GBP75,000 to GBP100,000 worth of money to invest. And yet, those are the customers that most need support. And so the real focus of some of the Mansion House reforms and then the FDA is focused around this in their advice and guidance to introduce something called targeted advice.

第二部分是提供建議和指導，幫助英國民眾更廣泛地投資股票和其他風險資產。如您所知，2014 年推出的 RDR 法規於 2016 年左右生效，基本上限制了向投資資金低於 75,000 至 100,000 英鎊的人提供建議的能力。然而，這些卻是最需要支援的客戶。因此，Mansion House 的一些改革的真正重點以及 FDA 在其建議和指導中都集中於此，以引入所謂的有針對性的建議。

Really leans into that well. Now what do you need to do that? Well, you need the range of products that Lloyds Banking Group has, investments, a self-directed platform, which we have and we have well, the advice platform that we have, obviously, through Schroders Personal Wealth, but as you'll recall, we launched something called Ready-Made Investments about two years ago, a digital journey, and we took our equity ISA share from less than 10%, significantly over 20%.

確實傾向於那口井。現在你需要做什麼呢？嗯，你需要勞埃德銀行集團擁有的一系列產品、投資、自主導向平台，我們擁有這些平台，當然，我們也有透過施羅德個人財富提供的諮詢平台，但你會記得，大約兩年前，我們推出了一種叫做「現成投資」的東西，這是一次數位化之旅，我們將我們的個人儲蓄帳戶份額從不到 10% 以上到了 20% 以上股票。

And even though we're a bank, so most equity adviser, equity investments happened through nonbank platforms. We think that's really important. We see it as a big growth opportunity for us. And then Blunden will talk about this later in the year. I'm sure the opportunities with and generative AI, particularly to really innovate in this space, we're already doing stuff in a regulatory sandbox with the FCA is going to enable us to really support customers in a different way.

儘管我們是一家銀行，但大多數股票顧問和股票投資都是透過非銀行平台進行的。我們認為這確實很重要。我們認為這對我們來說是一個巨大的成長機會。布倫登將在今年晚些時候談論此事。我確信，生成性人工智慧帶來的機會，特別是在這個領域的真正創新，我們已經在與 FCA 的監管沙盒中開展工作，這將使我們能夠以不同的方式真正支持客戶。

Now that's not going to grow the income line quickly. It takes time to engage customers, to build their assets for them to invest over months, quarters, years and for that to drive the top line. But it is going to be a really good enabler of our strategy. And it'll give us very sustainable revenue growth and obviously OI-biased growth going forward and be core to our higher-value customer segment proposition as well. Very supportive around what they're doing. And I think it just gives us more support around our strategy.

現在，這不會快速增加收入。吸引客戶、建立他們的資產以供他們在數月、數個季度、數年內進行投資並以此推動營業收入成長需要時間。但它確實會成為我們策略的良好推動者。它將為我們帶來非常可持續的收入成長，並且顯然會在未來帶來以 OI 為主導的成長，並成為我們更高價值客戶細分主張的核心。非常支持他們所做的事情。我認為這為我們的策略提供了更多支持。

Aman Rakkar, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的阿曼‧拉卡爾 (Aman Rakkar)。

I had two questions, please. It's obviously -- it's (inaudible) on the call. So I don't know what you can really say on it. But interested if there's any color that you could add on finance. Obviously, you haven't taken a charge in the quarter, but there have been some developments, particularly around the interest rate that the fall is looking like new cases that come in. I'm not sure if -- I'm not sure if that's applied to any potential remediation scheme by the FDA.

我有兩個問題，請問一下。顯然──這是在通話中（聽不清楚）。所以我不知道你對此究竟能說些什麼。但我感興趣的是您是否可以添加一些有關財務的內容。顯然，本季你還沒有收取任何費用，但已經出現了一些進展，特別是圍繞利率的下降，看起來像是出現了新的案例。我不確定——我不確定這是否適用於 FDA 的任何潛在補救計劃。

But there have been some developments. I know we're awfully close to the Supreme Court ruling, hopefully. So it might not be easy thing to talk about, but any color that you can give on your expectations there would be really helpful. And then the second question was on protection penetration rate, which, I guess, the data point you've been throwing out there for a few quarters now. Two-part question, so how high do you think this can get?

但目前已經取得了一些進展。我知道我們非常接近最高法院的裁決，希望如此。所以這可能不是一件容易談論的事情，但如果你能夠表達出你的期望，那將會非常有幫助。第二個問題是關於保護滲透率，我想，這是您幾個季度以來一直在提出的數據點。問題分為兩部分，您認為這個數字能達到多高？

So what proportion of mortgage customers you think could ultimately take a protection product from you? And I'm interested in what it means for your ability to compete in the mortgage market from here? Is this something that allows you just the period unit economics? And should we think about this kind of enabling you to just take market share as a kind of long-term pivot from what we're seeing in market with Lloyds.

那麼您認為最終有多少比例的抵押貸款客戶會向您購買保護產品？我感興趣的是，這對你們在抵押貸款市場的競爭力意味著什麼？這是不是能讓你實現週期單位經濟效益的東西？我們是否應該考慮這種方式，讓您能夠佔據市場份額，作為我們在勞合社市場上看到的一種長期支點。

Yes. Thanks, man, both for the questions. The motor finance question is entirely legitimate. So we'll certainly do our best to answer it even though will needless to say the incomplete. The motor finance position is like you, we wait to see what the Supreme Court is going to hand down, without having any insight on the point, we do expect it to come during the course of the next couple of weeks before the court shuts down for the summer period.

是的。謝謝兩位提出的問題。汽車融資問題是完全合理的。因此，儘管答案可能不完整，但我們一定會盡力回答。汽車金融的情況和您一樣，我們等著看最高法院會做出什麼判決，雖然對這一點還沒有任何見解，但我們確實預計它會在接下來的幾週內到來，在法院因夏季關閉之前。

So we'll see, but that's our expectation, too, in terms of timing. In terms of -- I'll address first of all, the specific interest rate point that you made, there was, as you say, the news out of the FOS or bank base rate plus 1% being the relevant interest rate to apply going forward. It is, as you also say, Aman, unclear as to what that applies to, whether it is cases such as the motor case they're in play right now or whether it is only forward-looking. And I think we have to how that is clarified.

所以我們會看到，但就時間而言，這也是我們的期望。就——我首先要談談您提出的具體利率點，正如您所說，有消息稱 FOS 或銀行基準利率加上 1% 是未來適用的相關利率。正如您所說，阿曼，目前還不清楚這適用於什麼，是他們目前正在處理的汽車案件，還是只是前瞻性的。我認為我們必須澄清這一點。

The 1 point that I would make is that we are hopeful that it will apply to both on the basis that it would seem a little odd for it to be, if you like, an accident of timing, as to which interest rate you get. So let's see how that plays out, but we are hopeful that it should in theory at least apply to both, but we do not have clarity on it, to be clear, right now.

我想說的一點是，我們希望它能夠適用於兩者，因為如果你願意的話，這似乎有點奇怪，因為你獲得的利率是一個時間上的偶然事件。所以讓我們看看結果會如何，但我們希望它至少在理論上適用於兩者，但目前我們對此還不清楚。

Should that the case in terms of the financial impact on it, as you know, our provision is built up of a variety of scenarios from a legal perspective, from an FDA perspective and from a customer response perspective. And those scenarios have variables that are playing out in different ways within them. Some of them have lower rate scenarios, some of them have higher rate scenarios in terms of the rate that will be applied. And that is what it is important to bear in mind in the context of figuring out what the difference of that bank base rate plus 1% will make.

如果就財務影響而言確實如此，那麼如您所知，我們的規定是從法律角度、FDA 角度和客戶回應角度構建的多種場景。這些場景中存在以不同方式發揮作用的變數。就適用的利率而言，有些國家採用較低的利率方案，有些國家則採用較高的利率方案。在計算銀行基準利率加上 1% 的差額時，請牢記這一點很重要。

It does make a positive difference to our provision to be clear. It does make a positive difference, but it isn't simply swapping in that interest rate for what was previously, let's say, the 8% rate used in other FDA inquiries because of that scenario-based approach that we have employed to figuring out what the provision is in relation to the motor finance and where we are in terms of how we might look at the provision over the course of the coming weeks. To be clear, as I said, we have a variety of scenarios built into the provision. Those look at or envisage different Supreme Court outcomes.

明確地說，這確實對我們的規定產生了正面的影響。它確實帶來了積極的影響，但它並不是簡單地將該利率換成之前的利率，比如說，其他 FDA 調查中使用的 8% 的利率，因為我們採用了基於情景的方法來弄清楚與汽車融資相關的規定，以及我們在未來幾週內如何看待該規定。需要明確的是，正如我所說，我們在條款中考慮了多種場景。這些都審視或設想了不同的最高法院判決結果。

They also envisage different FCA outcomes, and they also envisage different customer response outcomes. And so therefore, there is a base case of outcomes, if you like, whereby the Supreme Court comes out with the judgment, and we don't actually make any change to provision because we want to see what the FCA does before we make into determination as to what the provision impact might be.

他們還設想了不同的 FCA 結果，並且還設想了不同的客戶回應結果。因此，如果你願意的話，有一個基本的結果，即最高法院做出判決，我們實際上不會對規定做任何改變，因為我們想在確定規定的影響之前看看金融行為監管局會做什麼。

Now clearly, there are outlying Supreme Court scenarios whereby the Supreme Court says something that is at either end of the distribution of probability is either very good or alternatively very bad. And we would have to look at that and figure out what the financial implications of that might be in the moment that the judgment gets handed down. To be clear, that is not our base case, but we obviously have to see what the judgment says at the time that it says it. So that hopefully gives you some insight on Motor Finance.

現在很明顯，最高法院存在一些異常情況，即最高法院認為概率分佈兩端的事情要么非常好，要么非常糟糕。我們必須考慮這一點，並弄清楚判決下達後，這可能會帶來哪些財務影響。需要明確的是，這不是我們的基本情況，但我們顯然必須看看判決當時是怎麼說的。希望這能讓您對汽車金融有所了解。

And like you and I, we look forward to moving expeditiously with this and getting it behind us. Protection penetration. I'll make some comments, Charlie may wish to add. But First of all, as you say, we are really pleased to see protection penetration in the context of our mortgage offering going up in a fairly consistent way. I think when we spoke at the year-end, it was around 15% mark, now speaking and it's around a 20% mark, and that's really good progress.

和你我一樣，我們也期待著迅速推進這項進程並取得成果。防護穿透。我會發表一些評論，查理可能想補充一下。但首先，正如您所說，我們非常高興地看到，我們的抵押貸款保障滲透率正在以相當穩定的方式上升。我認為，當我們在年底談論時，這個數字約為 15%，現在則約為 20%，這是一個非常好的進展。

To give you some idea of what is behind that, the mechanics of it, what used to be a very cumbersome two-part customer journey is now used together much more straightforward singular customer journey, and it is predominantly that, that has made a difference in terms of our ability to offer a more value-added proposition in a cure time frame, if you like, that the customer is willing to listen.

為了讓您了解背後的機制，過去非常繁瑣的兩部分客戶旅程現在被結合使用，形成更加直接的單一客戶旅程，而這主要是因為我們有能力在規定的時間內提供更具附加價值的主張，如果您願意的話，客戶也願意傾聽。

It is behind that a value-added product to be clear at the same time. And so we think we're giving really good value to the customers as well as obviously secure a good outcome for the group as a whole. And that's what's helping us build the penetration going forward. Our aspiration, to be clear, Aman, is to be better than that, I -- we would like to succeed and go beyond the 20% that we're at right now. We believe the best practice out in the market is at least another 50% on top of what we've seen to date.

同時背後還有一個附加價值產品需要明確。因此，我們認為我們不僅為客戶提供了真正良好的價值，而且顯然也為整個集團帶來了良好的結果。這有助於我們進一步擴大滲透率。阿曼，明確地說，我們的願望是做得更好，我希望取得成功，超越目前的 20%。我們相信，市場上的最佳實踐至少比我們迄今為止所見的還要高出 50%。

And so we would aspire to be that, in fact, as a bancassurer, we would aspire better than that, to be clear, Aman, but we'll take it one step at a time. Does that affect our competitive position in the market? I think inevitably, if we have a more profitable customer relationship, we are going to look at the nature of that customer relationship in terms of what we can offer and to who and when. And so therefore, it is an added, I suppose, lever to pull in the context of building what we hope will be sensible and advantageous customer relationships, first and foremost, from the perspective of the customer.

因此，我們渴望成為這樣的企業，事實上，作為一家銀行保險公司，我們渴望做得更好，阿曼，要明確一點，但我們會一步一步來。這會影響我們在市場上的競爭地位嗎？我認為，如果我們擁有更有利可圖的客戶關係，我們就必然會從我們能提供什麼、向誰提供以及何時提供的角度來審視這種客戶關係的性質。因此，我認為，在建立我們希望的合理且有利的客戶關係的背景下，這是一個額外的槓桿，首先從客戶的角度來看。

And then secondarily, by implication from our own perspective, I hope over time, that contributes to strengthening market share. But so far, if we're taking it one step at a time, and I think progress has been so far so good, and we'll look for more going forward.

其次，從我們自身的角度來看，我希望隨著時間的推移，這有助於加強市場份額。但到目前為止，如果我們一步一步地前進，我認為進展到目前為止都很好，我們會期待未來會取得更多進展。

Yes. Look, the best practice in the world is kind of 20%, that's looking in the rearview mirror around how people run customer mortgage journeys. When we look at the innovation we're doing and how we're engaging customers, let's see if we get there first and whether we can go further. Remember, we're also -- I kind of made a nice bold one-way assertion part of this, our bancassurance model is working. We provide home insurance, and we do that very successfully.

是的。你看，世界上最好的做法是 20%，這是透過後視鏡觀察人們如何進行客戶抵押貸款旅程。當我們審視我們正在進行的創新以及我們如何吸引客戶時，讓我們看看我們是否能率先實現這一目標以及我們是否可以走得更遠。請記住，我們也——我對此做出了一個很好的大膽的單向斷言，我們的銀保模式正在發揮作用。我們提供家庭保險，並且做得非常成功。

William highlighted that our revenues there have grown 35% year-on-year. But we took a lot of market share in the last 18, 24 months. We've been -- it's been a very competitive market this year, but that relates into this. How we're using our home hub and our digital engagement, I talked about that earlier, to support people through their home ownership journey into renewals and product transfers, how we start to think going forward about the biggest asset in the UK isn't investments or cash.

威廉強調，我們在那裡的收入年增了 35%。但我們在過去 18 到 24 個月內佔據了很大市場份額。我們——今年的市場競爭非常激烈，但這與此有關。我們如何利用我們的家庭中心和數位參與，我之前談過，以幫助人們完成房屋所有權的整個過程，包括續約和產品轉移，我們如何開始思考英國最大的資產不是投資或現金。

It's actually the GBP7 trillion to GBP8 trillion worth of unmortgaged retail real estate. And we're obviously a leader in -- to be able to support customers and about how that asset could be used going forward. So we see a lot of opportunity to leverage our unique position with customers and across our businesses to continue to grow and be run to mortgages. I suppose the one other thing of caution, William I've always said, there may be quarters where mortgage margins and/or the attractiveness of the market isn't to be and we're not going to chase market share for sake. We're very focused on how do we build the three-cycle profitable business around mortgages and then the associated products.

實際上是價值 7 兆至 8 兆英鎊的未抵押零售房地產。我們顯然在為客戶提供支援以及如何在未來使用該資產方面處於領先地位。因此，我們看到許多機會可以利用我們在客戶和業務方面的獨特地位來繼續發展並經營抵押貸款業務。我想還有一件需要注意的事情，威廉，我一直說，在某些季度，抵押貸款利潤率和/或市場吸引力可能不高，我們不會為了追求市場份額而追逐市場份額。我們非常關注如何圍繞抵押貸款和相關產品建立三週期獲利業務。

And we feel like we're continuing to extend our ability to do just that.

我們感覺我們正在繼續擴展我們實現這一目標的能力。

Jonathan Pierce, Jefferies.

喬納森·皮爾斯，傑富瑞。

Got a couple of questions on the structural hedge please. But before that, can I just quickly clarify these preliminary results, thanks for moving them out at the half term week in February. Will they look like the normal set of preliminary results. So there will be a detail as what we normally get in February.

請問關於結構性對沖有幾個問題。但在此之前，我能否快速澄清一下這些初步結果，並感謝您在二月的半學期週將其發佈出來。它們看起來會像正常的初步結果嗎？因此我們將獲得與二月份通常獲得的資訊相同的詳細資訊。

Yes. Would you let me say that first of Jonathan, and I'll come to your second question. The First of all, thank you for raising the question. It is -- it has been an ambition of us for some time actually to accelerate the results. The principal reason for it is -- of course, we all have kids in half turn.

是的。請容許我先談談喬納森，然後再回答你的第二個問題。首先感謝您提出這個問題。事實上，我們一直以來的目標就是加速成果。主要原因是──當然，我們都有半個孩子。

But actually the principal report is to look forward into the next year, in this case, 26 is an important year for us and to move forward at pace and spend less of the year kind of looking backwards, if you like. prelims will enable us to do that.

但實際上，主要的報告是展望明年，在這種情況下，26 年對我們來說是重要的一年，我們要快速前進，減少一年中回顧過去的時間，如果你願意的話。初賽將使我們能夠做到這一點。

They will also bring us into line, as you know, with our European and US peers who follow similar practice. So we're really pleased to make that move today. We do think it will allow us to move with pace into 2026. Unfortunately, my kids are now too old for me to benefit from the half turn break, but I'm sure a lot of others will do. And both set prelims a very welcome development for us.

如你所知，他們也將使我們與遵循類似做法的歐洲和美國同行保持一致。所以我們很高興今天採取這項措施。我們確實認為它將使我們步入 2026 年。不幸的是，我的孩子現在太大了，我無法從半轉休息中受益，但我相信很多人會這樣做。兩場預賽對我們來說都是一個非常受歡迎的進展。

Jonathan, does that answer your question? In terms of detail -- sorry, in terms of the detail of the print, the prelim results will be substantially all the material that you need in order to make a financial assessment of the company. We have an accounting obligation before we can publish prelims to be substantially complete effectively as to the numbers that we put forward at that time. That essentially tells us that we need to deliver to you and obviously to ourselves, confirmation are all of the key numbers that we would expect to put forward.

喬納森，這回答了你的問題嗎？就細節而言——抱歉，就印刷細節而言，初步結果基本上就是對公司進行財務評估所需的全部材料。在我們發布初步數據之前，我們有一項會計義務，以確保當時提出的數字基本上完整且有效。這實際上告訴我們，我們需要向您和我們自己提供確認，這些都是我們期望提出的關鍵數字。

From a presentational format, they will look something a bit like the half year results. There may be some added notes. There may be some other details on top of that, to be clear. For presentation at least, they will look somewhat similar with a chunky R&S docking upfront, which again will give you, I hope, more than enough analysis numbers, financial insight in order to assess the performance of the business. Jonathan, does that answer your question?

從呈現形式來看，它們看起來有點像半年業績。可能還有一些附加的註解。除此之外，可能還有一些其他細節需要明確。至少從演示來看，它們看起來有些相似，前面有一個厚實的 R&S 對接，我希望這能給你足夠的分析數字和財務洞察力，以評估業務的表現。喬納森，這回答了你的問題嗎？

Yes, it does. And let's hope other banks follows too. On the hedge question, I mean, I suppose one of the things investors see those (inaudible) Lloyd's at the moment and are waiting for the motor judgment, sort of things they're thinking about, in particular, the confidence in the 2026 RoTE and then how it may develop thereafter. So on the hedge, can you tell us how much of the maturities that are coming through next year have already been repositioned.

是的。我們希望其他銀行也能效法。關於對沖問題，我的意思是，我認為投資者目前看到的（聽不清楚）勞合社正在等待汽車行業的判決，他們正在考慮的事情，特別是對 2026 年 RoTE 的信心，以及它此後將如何發展。那麼，關於對沖，您能否告訴我們明年到期的債券中有多少已經重新定位。

I know you said over 80% of the income is locked in, but how much of the maturities are pre-hedged. And then the post-2026 piece, as you said, your guidance is pointing to about a 2.7% yield on the hedge on average next year. There's still probably an under earn versus the current curve of 4 percentage points of ROTE. Could you give us a little bit of a flavor as to there's lots of moving parts, but when that will start, when that will come through? Is it pretty linear in '27 and '28.

我知道您說過超過 80% 的收入是鎖定的，但有多少到期收益是預先對沖的。然後是 2026 年以後的部分，正如您所說，您的指導表明明年對沖的平均收益率約為 2.7%。與目前 ROTE 曲線相比，可能仍存在 4 個百分點的低收入現象。您能否向我們稍微介紹一下其中涉及的許多活動部件，但這些部件什麼時候會開始，什麼時候會完成？在 27 年和 28 年，它是否相當線性？

Is that how we should think about it?

我們該這樣思考嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Jonathan. In respect of the maturities, we don't really disclose as to the precise maturity schedule within the hedge. As I mentioned earlier on, in terms of, if you like, value coming off of the hedge. So the ultimately GBP6.9 million I think it equates to in respect to '26 million.

是的。謝謝，喬納森。就到期日而言，我們實際上並沒有透露對沖中確切的到期時間表。正如我之前提到的，就價值而言，如果你願意的話，可以擺脫對沖。因此，我認為最終的 690 萬英鎊相當於 2600 萬英鎊。

We have, as said, over 4/5 of that locked in, and that is growing. The That, in turn, should kind of hopefully gives you what you need from a numbers perspective. In terms of maturities, there are maturities coming out during the course of '26.

正如我們所說，其中超過 4/5 已被鎖定，而且這個數字還在增長。反過來，從數字的角度來看，這應該能給你所需要的東西。就到期日而言，26 年期間將有到期日。

Equally, some of those maturities are effectively pre-hedged so that we can avoid undue concentration risks in terms of those maturities during the year. That's probably about as far as I'll go in terms of the overall expectation around maturities, mainly for fear of just if you like, giving you information that doesn't lead to a helpful result, to be honest with you, Jonathan. In terms of your yield analysis, we're probably a touch above your 2.7% by the time we get to 2026, not by much, but by a little bit.

同樣，其中一些到期日已被有效地預先對沖，以便我們可以避免年內這些到期日的過度集中風險。就到期日的整體預期而言，這可能就是我所能想到的全部了，主要是因為擔心如果你願意的話，給你提供的資訊不會帶來有用的結果，老實說，喬納森。根據您的收益率分析，到 2026 年，我們的收益率可能會略高於您的 2.7%，雖然不會高太多，但也會高一點點。

And having said that, clearly still materially below where swap rates are. And I think consumer with the disclosures that we gave at year-end still below 3% to be clear at that point in time. In respect of your question for '27 and '28, it plays out during the course of '27 a little bit during the course of '28. And then if swap rates stay the same, you've then got a steady contribution from the hedge in the years thereafter by definition. But that is all built upon our 3.5% terminal rate assumption to be clear, and the swap rates that we expect consistent with that.

話雖如此，但顯然仍遠低於掉期利率。我認為，我們在年底披露的消費者利率在當時仍低於 3%。關於您關於 27 年和 28 年的問題，它在 2027 年期間有所體現，在 2028 年期間也有所體現。然後，如果掉期利率保持不變，那麼根據定義，你在接下來的幾年裡就會從對沖中獲得穩定的貢獻。但這一切都建立在我們 3.5% 的終端利率假設之上，而我們預期的掉期利率也與此一致。

Well, this is a very helpful answer. Thank you. Most of the internal structural hedge catch-up will come through in 2027.

嗯，這是一個非常有用的答案。謝謝。大部分內部結構性對沖補缺將在 2027 年實現。

It's '27 and I would include kind of 2/3, 3/4 of '28, something like that in that calculation in Jonathan. So it's not solely concentrated in '27. Continues to play out in '28. But by the time you are at '28, you've got most.

這是 27 年，我會在 Jonathan 的計算中包括 28 年的 2/3、3/4 之類的數字。所以它並不只集中在 27 年。'28 年繼續上演。但當你 28 歲時，你已經擁有最多的東西了。

Edward Firth, KBW.

愛德華·弗斯，KBW。

I just had two questions. One was just clarifying the answer, the question on Motor Finance, not about the liability really, but just to get my understanding of the timetable right because I think you said in answer to the earlier question that you still expected something in the next two weeks. But if I read the website right I don't think they're due to give you a judgment next week, and then we're closed for the summer I thought.

我只有兩個問題。一是澄清答案，關於汽車金融的問題，實際上與責任無關，而只是為了讓我正確理解時間表，因為我認為您在回答之前的問題時說過，您仍然期待在接下來的兩週內有所進展。但如果我沒看錯的話，我認為他們不會在下週給你一個判決，然後我們就會因為夏天而關閉。

So can I just clarify? Am I missing something on that because I guess you'll have a much better advice than I do on exactly how the Supreme Court work. So that's my first question.

那我可以澄清一下嗎？我是否忽略了什麼，因為我想你會比我更清楚最高法院的具體運作方式。這是我的第一個問題。

And then the second one was can I just ask you about your capital generation target for next year, the 200 basis points because everybody is talking a lot about growth and a lot of the clients are asking about growth and volume growth. But if I take a 15 -- I mean, I know it's greater than 15%. But if I take a 15% plus ROTE and then square that away with 200 basis points of capital generation.

然後第二個問題是，我可以問您明年的資本產生目標嗎？ 200 個基點，因為每個人都在談論成長，很多客戶都在詢問成長和數量成長。但如果我取 15——我的意思是，我知道它大於 15%。但如果我取 15% 加上 ROTE，然後將其與 200 個基點的資本生成相平衡。

That doesn't sound like an awful lot of growth. And I suppose my first question is, is that right? Am I missing something in the capital generation? And then secondly, if there is more growth, why are you bound to this 200 basis points? Because I assume that if you could get more growth, why would you not take it and sacrifice capital generation?

這聽起來並不像是一個很大的成長。我想我的第一個問題是，這是對的嗎？我在資本生成方面是否遺漏了一些東西？其次，如果還有更多的成長，為什麼一定要達到 200 個基點？因為我認為如果你能夠獲得更多的成長，為什麼不接受它並犧牲資本創造呢？

Yes. Thanks. I'll kick off on the first one. And I'll add some comments on the second one, but then hand over to Charlie to complete the answer. In respect of the first, first of all, we do not have any insight on the motor timing or the nature of the judgment that is anything in addition to what you have to be clear.

是的。謝謝。我先從第一個開始。我會對第二個問題添加一些評論，然後交給 Charlie 來完成答案。關於第一點，首先，除了你必須清楚的之外，我們對運動時機或判斷的本質沒有任何見解。

So we wait it, in just the same way as you do. We do not know what the content is going to be in the Supreme Court judgment just as you don't.

因此，我們像你們一樣等待它。正如您一樣，我們也不知道最高法院的判決內容是什麼。

So that's just for say, clarity. In respect to the timetable, you may be watching the website more closely at this moment in time than I am. But as we understand it, we may or may not get notification during the course of today that will come next week. If it doesn't come next week, there is still an opportunity for notification next week that it will come the week after. And all of that is consistent with the then closing down for the summer.

所以這只是為了清楚起見。關於時間表，您現在可能比我更仔細地關注該網站。但據我們了解，我們今天可能會收到或可能不會收到下週的通知。如果下週沒有到貨，下週仍有機會收到通知，告知下週會到貨。所有這些都與當時夏季的關閉一致。

So that's as much as we can say on the timing. There is, of course, I guess, a scenario that this actually goes over into the autumn into September. But having heard what the judge justices have said both in independent statements, but also in front of, I think, parliament at some stage. The expectation that we have, I think, is the same as everybody else is that it is going to come this side of the summer. And then as I said, we will calibrate what our reaction needs to be at that time.

關於時間，我們只能說這麼多。當然，我猜有一種情況是這種情況實際上會持續到秋季到九月。但聽完法官們在獨立聲明中以及在議會面前所說的話後，我想。我認為，我們和其他人一樣，都希望它在今年夏天到來。然後正如我所說的，我們將校準當時所需的反應。

One point to add, which may be helpful, Ed, is consistent with my earlier comments, we do then expect the FCA to come out. It said that it will come out within six weeks. We expect what it comes out with at that point in time will be inconclusive. It seems likely to us that it will come out at that point in time with some perspectives on whether or not our address scheme is appropriate and if it is, broadly speaking, at least, what the parameters of it might be. But we expect that to be subject to further consultation and discussion and appears thereof, which might mean that you get a period of continued, if you like, uncertainty, for want of a better word, about what exactly any FCA scheme might be like even after he has come out of that initial opinion, if you like, six-week period.

艾德，需要補充的一點可能會有幫助，這與我之前的評論一致，我們確實期待 FCA 的出面。據稱將在六週內發布。我們預計到那時結果還無法確定。我們認為，到那時很可能會出現一些觀點，表明我們的地址方案是否合適，如果合適，至少從廣義上講，它的參數可能是什麼。但我們預計這需要進一步的磋商和討論，這可能意味著你會經歷一段持續的不確定性時期，如果你願意的話，可以說這是一個不確定的時期，關於任何 FCA 計劃究竟會是什麼樣子，即使在他得出初步意見之後，如果你願意的話，也可以說是一個六週的時間。

So just worth bearing that in mind. Moving on in respect to capital generation, growing 200 basis points and grow than 15% RoTE and is absolutely our expectation for next year. And as I said, in both Charlie and my commentary, we remain very confident in those outcomes. That is off the back of I'll speak to the R&D and I guess, by extension of capital generation, that is off the back of increased operational leverage in the business which comes from strengthening NII plus OI and comes from a flattening cost base, not a flat cost base, but a flattening cost base alongside continued with stable macros consistent with our assumptions right here, which in turn delivered the ROTE growth, which in turn delivers capital generation benefits.

所以值得記住這一點。在資本生成方面繼續前進，成長 200 個基點，RoTE 成長超過 15%，這絕對是我們對明年的期望。正如我在查理和我的評論中所說的那樣，我們對這些結果仍然非常有信心。這是基於我將要談論的研發，我想，透過延伸資本生成，這是基於業務中運營槓桿的增加，這來自於加強 NII 加 OI 以及來自於平坦的成本基礎，不是平坦的成本基礎，而是平坦的成本基礎以及持續穩定的宏，與我們目前的假設一致，這反過來又帶來了 ROTE 增長，進而帶來了資本增長，進而帶來了資本收益。

Now I would say before handing over to Charlie, is that based upon our analysis of our own metrics, our expectations as to how markets will develop, we are still seeing pretty material AIEA growth, average interest-earning asset growth into 2026 and that is a reflection of continued performance on the asset side, supported by continued strength in the deposit offering, not unlike what we've seen during the course of the first half of this year. So I really don't think that we are making a profit versus growth trade-off here, Ed. In fact, I think we're seeing both play out at the same time during the course of '26, which is very consistent with the strategic investments that we have made alongside, again, a stable macro.

現在，在交給查理之前，我想說的是，根據我們對自身指標的分析，以及對市場發展前景的預期，我們仍然看到 AIEA 增長相當可觀，到 2026 年平均生息資產將增長，這反映了資產方面的持續表現，並受到存款供應持續強勁的支持，與我們今年上半年看到的情況並無不同。所以，艾德，我真的不認為我們在這裡是在進行利潤與成長之間的權衡。事實上，我認為在2026年，我們看到了兩者同時發揮作用，這與我們所做的戰略投資以及穩定的宏觀經濟政策非常一致。

Yes. I think that's the key point, right, Ed, we see growing the balance sheet profitably. Let's be clear, profitably, as a very good investment given the returns of the business and what we're doing. And the plan for this year, you've seen in the first half performance, you felt our confidence, I hope, around we'll continue to see asset growth. You can never judge the market, but you will continue to see asset growth in the second half.

是的。我認為這是關鍵點，對的，艾德，我們看到資產負債表獲利成長。讓我們明確一點，從業務回報和我們所做的事情來看，這是一項非常好的投資。至於今年的計劃，你們已經看到了上半年的表現，感受到了我們的信心，我希望，我們將繼續看到資產成長。你永遠無法判斷市場，但下半年你將繼續看到資產成長。

And we're absolutely assuming that we'll continue to grow the balance sheet next year. So the ROTE and the capital generation you're seeing, as we've always said, which we think us as a very strong performer, assumes that we're growing the balance sheet, and also from a ROTE perspective assumes TNAV progression.

我們絕對相信明年我們的資產負債表將繼續成長。因此，正如我們一直所說的那樣，您所看到的 ROTE 和資本生成表明我們的表現非常強勁，這假設我們的資產負債表正在增長，並且從 ROTE 的角度來看，TNAV 也在不斷進步。

And that's the business we're building. A business that through cycle is growing, is going to be growing TNFs still delivering, creating the capacity to grow the balance sheet and still delivering high rates and capital generation, which we'll revisit with our Board at the end of the year as to how we distribute. The one other thing that we are particularly focused on, and I know you know this all very painfully is -- we did commit to diversify into a more diversified business model and grow OOI.

這就是我們正在建立的業務。一個在整個週期中不斷成長的企業，將繼續創造成長的TNF，創造成長資產負債表的能力，並繼續提供高利率和資本生成，我們將在年底與董事會重新討論如何分配。我們特別關注的另一件事，我知道你們非常痛苦地知道這一點——我們確實致力於實現多元化發展，建立更多元化的商業模式，並發展 OOI。

Now that 9% growth quarter-on-quarter year-on-year, we think is a really differentiating and important part of our business model. We have parts to our business model that no one else has, and that's by design. But that doesn't come without investment. Sometimes that sit on banking net interest income or us building the supporting funding and underpinning those businesses.

現在，我們認為季度環比成長 9% 是我們商業模式中真正與眾不同且重要的一部分。我們的商業模式中有一些其他人所沒有的部分，這是設計使然。但這需要投資。有時，這些資金來自銀行淨利息收入，或由我們建立支持性資金並支持這些業務。

Sometimes that's in the technology investment we've done, the additional GBP4 billion we all asked you for permission for that we think we are investing very successfully for us. Sometimes that's OpEx, right? You need people to actually grow those businesses, wealth businesses, transport businesses. So we see that as a really important part of this. It's a bit more complex to get you comfortable with the tows building because those businesses will tend to have very good capital generation, and then we'll have an opportunity to distribute that if that's the right thing to do.

有時這就是我們所做的技術投資，我們額外要求你們批准的 40 億英鎊，我們認為這項投資對我們來說非常成功。有時這就是營運支出 (OpEx)，對嗎？你需要人才來真正發展這些業務、財富業務、運輸業務。因此我們認為這是其中非常重要的一部分。讓您適應拖車建設會稍微複雜一些，因為這些企業往往具有非常好的資本生成能力，然後我們將有機會分配這些資本，如果這是正確的事情的話。

So we just would ask you the investment we're making in those businesses and probably least comfortably, I'm looking at William, basically is an investment in that OOI growth and because of the nature of the way cars depreciate, when you're growing the transport fleet, you're going to see OLDs earlier in the life cycle of a three- to four-year car duration. So it's a bit like the older insurance business, was very accretive upfront. And then you saw it pay back over time. Car is the opposite. When you're growing the franchise, it looks very -- it looks more dilutive, but it's actually -- the profitability is very good and good for the shareholders.

因此，我們只想問您在我們對這些業務所做的投資，也許最不舒服的是，我正在看威廉，基本上是對 OOI 增長的投資，並且由於汽車貶值方式的性質，當您增加運輸車隊時，您會在三到四年的汽車生命週期的早期看到 OLD 車。所以它有點像傳統的保險業務，前期加值能力很強。然後你會看到它隨著時間的推移而得到回報。汽車則相反。當你擴大特許經營權時，它看起來非常——它看起來更具稀釋性，但實際上——盈利能力非常好，對股東有利。

So no, I love the question because it leans into -- we're trying to do all of those above, grow the balance sheet, grow the OOI, invest in that growth and still deliver strong capital generation available for distribution and strong routing. Sorry, you got a longer answer than you wanted, but you got me excited.

所以不，我喜歡這個問題，因為它傾向於——我們正在努力做到上述所有事情，增加資產負債表，增加 OOI，投資於這種增長，並且仍然提供可用於分銷和強大路由的強大資本生成。抱歉，你的答案比你想要的答案還要長，但你讓我很興奮。

But I feel like it's mathematically, a 15% return is around 210 basis points of capital generation, something like that. So I mean, I get it's greater than 15%, so it'd be 60% and 70% whatever. But it doesn't feel like if that's the sort of base level, I'm just trying to what else I might be missing in terms of capital generation. I guess it could be some of the cash flow hedge reserve coming back, but is there some other big chunk of capital that I'm missing in terms of how you're going to support finance that growth.

但我覺得從數學上講，15% 的回報率大約相當於 210 個基點的資本生成，諸如此類。所以我的意思是，我知道它大於 15%，所以它會是 60% 或 70% 不管怎樣。但如果這不是基本水平，我只是想看看在資本創造方面我還缺少什麼。我猜可能是部分現金流對沖儲備的回歸，但就如何支持融資成長而言，是否還有其他一些我忽略的大筆資本？

I don't think so. And I would just make the comment, the cash flow hedge reserve is not -- is neutral on capital. So that will not be part of the contributory factors at all. I think what you're seeing is continued ROTE performance, which is off a combination of capital-intensive and capital-light activities. Charlie just talked there about the OOI, many of the OOI activities are actually relatively capital light. And you can see that witnessed in terms of some of the activities going on within the insurance business.

我不這麼認為。我只是想評論一下，現金流對沖儲備對資本來說不是中性的。所以這根本不是促成因素的一部分。我認為，您所看到的是持續的 ROTE 表現，這是資本密集型活動和輕資本活動的結合。Charlie 剛才談到了 OOI，OOI 的許多活動實際上相對資本較少。您可以從保險業中的一些活動中看到這一點。

For example, right now, and so you have the potential, if you like, to drive the ROE, not just off the back of the lending businesses, which grow RWAs for the capital need associated with them. but also to drive ROE off the back of, let's say, a strengthening wealth business types of activities, workplace pensions, for example, which are relatively capital light and therefore, consistent with capital generation inside a decent ROE.

例如現在，如果你願意的話，你就有潛力推動 ROE，不僅僅是依靠貸款業務，貸款業務會為滿足與其相關的資本需求而增加 RWA，而且還可以透過加強財富業務類型的活動（例如工作場所退休金）來推動 ROE，這些活動的資本相對較少，因此與體面的 ROE 中的資本生成相一致。

Jason Napier, UBS.

瑞銀的傑森·納皮爾。

First one, please, for William. I appreciate exactly what Charlie was saying a moment ago about the investment in OLD. Being cognizant of the fact that there was the revaluation of the fleet in the second quarter and that there may have been some costs associated with that.

第一個有請 William。我非常同意查理剛才所說的有關對 OLD 的投資。意識到第二季船隊重新估價，並可能與此相關產生一些成本。

I just wonder, William, can you give us a sense as to what the clean number for the quarter might have been and how you think about growth from here? It's good to see that the hedging and mitigation is working, just a sense as to how we should think about the evolution in the remaining three quarters, two quarters of the year? And then I have a question for Charlie. Secondly, please.

我只是想知道，威廉，您能否告訴我們本季的淨利潤數字可能是多少，以及您如何看待未來的成長？很高興看到對沖和緩解措施正在發揮作用，只是對於我們應該如何看待今年剩餘三個季度、兩個季度的演變有一個認識？然後我有一個問題要問查理。其次，請。

Yes. Thanks, Jason. Just to spend a moment on lot lease depreciation. You'll have seen in the Q2, as you obviously did was GBP355 million which is stable on Q1, in fact, exactly the same number, which is an accident rather than a design. But the fact that it was stable was definitely a design.

是的。謝謝，傑森。只需花一點時間討論一下地段租賃折舊。您可能已經看到，第二季的銷售額顯然是 3.55 億英鎊，與第一季持平，實際上，數字完全相同，這是一個意外，而不是設計。但事實上它的穩定絕對是經過設計的。

That was intentional and the result of reasonably significant management initiatives, which I'll describe in just a second. Now underneath that, what have you got going on within that number? You've got two or three moving pieces. One is you've got growth in the business, which is a function both of increased fleet size, which, of course, drives other operating income results and growth in that area.

這是有意為之，也是相當重要的管理措施的結果，我將在稍後進行描述。那麼，在這個數字下面，你得到了什麼呢？你有兩三個活動部件。一是業務成長，這是機隊規模擴大的結果，當然，這又推動了其他營業收入結果和該領域的成長。

Alongside of that, you've got higher-value vehicles, which likewise drives other operating income performance and is behind the retail or part at least of the retail growth within OOI. So those are both good to see.

除此之外，您還擁有更高價值的車輛，這同樣推動了其他營業收入表現，並且是 OOI 零售或至少部分零售成長的推動力。所以這些都是值得高興的事。

At the same time, you've also got RV prices, and in particular, electric vehicles within RV prices showed a bit of weakness during the course of quarter two. In fact, weakness that was beyond our expectations during the course of quarter two. At the same time, the third component of what is going on in that number is a series of management initiatives that we talked about Q1, which include things like lease extensions, which include things like remarketing, both of which give significant value to the customers, and there, they are very strong customer propositions.

同時，房車價格也出現了一定幅度的下降，尤其是電動車房車價格在第二季出現了一些疲軟。事實上，第二季的疲軟超出了我們的預期。同時，該數字的第三個組成部分是我們在第一季討論的一系列管理舉措，其中包括租約延期、再行銷等，這兩項舉措都為客戶帶來了巨大的價值，並且，它們都是非常強大的客戶主張。

Alongside improved deals, if you like, in the context of our auction sales process, which gives us better secondhand car prices. The combinate of those initiatives had a beneficial effect on operating lease depreciation, not just in Q2 but will have a beneficial effect on operating lease depreciation going forward. So that if you see continued weakness, let's say, in electric vehicle prices, if you see that, then we're not immune from it. But on the other hand, we are now much less exposed to it than we were, let's say, 12 months ago, 6 months ago by virtue of these types of measures.

除了改善交易之外，如果您願意的話，在我們的拍賣銷售過程中，我們可以提供更優惠的二手車價格。這些措施的結合對經營租賃折舊產生了有益的影響，不僅在第二季度，而且將對未來的經營租賃折舊產生有益的影響。因此，如果您發現電動車價格持續疲軟，那麼我們就無法倖免。但另一方面，透過採取這些措施，我們現在受到的影響比 12 個月前或 6 個月前要小得多。

As a result, what you'll see in all these depreciation line, Jason, going forward, which is going to be much more stable than you have seen before. Again, not immune from difficulties and our pricing should those arise, but more stable than what you have seen before and more closely tied into underlying business growth, if you like, which into what drives other operating income.

因此，傑森，你將在所有這些折舊線中看到，未來它將比你以前看到的更穩定。再次強調，我們無法免受困難的影響，如果出現這些困難，我們的定價也會受到影響，但比你以前看到的更穩定，並且與基礎業務增長更緊密地聯繫在一起，如果你願意的話，這會推動其他營業收入。

I won't give you a precise number to forecast to lease depreciation with simply because it's not one of the lines that we give guidance on. But over the course of this year, we do expect that operating lease depreciation line to be, as said, less volatile, more pretty linked into the other operating income growth that we see in line with fleet growth, in line with higher value cars growth, which hopefully gives you some idea for predicting and making forecast in your modeling, Jason?

我不會給你一個精確的數字來預測租賃折舊，因為這不是我們提供指導的內容之一。但在今年，我們確實預計經營租賃折舊線的波動性會更小，與我們看到的與車隊增長、與高價值汽車增長相一致的其他經營收入增長更加緊密地聯繫在一起，希望這能為您在建模中進行預測和做出預測提供一些思路，傑森？

The second question was really following on from what you were saying about investment in the business and so on. And I was caught by the disclosure on page 8, the tech run and change costs are down 20% since 2021, while you've hired 8,000 people and are investing billions in tech and so. So the first -- the half of the question is, what do you mean by that disclosure? But what are you saying about the composition of the spend then and now because aggregate costs are up nearly 20% over that period?

第二個問題其實是對您所說的業務投資等問題的延續。第 8 頁的揭露內容讓我印象深刻，自 2021 年以來，技術運作和變更成本下降了 20%，而您卻僱用了 8,000 名員工，並在技術等方面投資了數十億美元。所以第一個問題——一半是，你所說的披露是什麼意思？但是，由於那段時期的總成本上漲了近 20%，您對當時和現在的支出組成有何看法？

And then secondly, if you think about the investment thesis into next year, the way I see it. Lloyd's is going to produce something like 8% jaws, consensus things in 2026 on the back of and that's pre-remediation on the back of costs that expand very little the market thinks and then sustain good top line growth. And so Charlie, in the way that you chunk the costs of the group, we would love to have tech as distinct from brunches as distinct from risk, how do you think about cost evolution into next year? And in what ways are those chunks evolving differently one year forward than they have one year back?

其次，如果你考慮明年的投資論點，我是這樣看的。勞合社將在 2026 年實現 8% 左右的利潤，這是市場認為的在成本擴張很小的情況下進行補救前的共識，然後維持良好的營收成長。那麼查理，在您劃分集團成本的方式中，我們希望將技術與早午餐和風險區分開來，您如何看待明年的成本演變？那麼，這些區塊未來一年的演變與過去一年的演變有何不同？

Yes. No, thank you, Jason. It's a really important question. I know -- let me just talk about '26 is the way you've asked the question. And although we're not giving guidance beyond that.

是的。不，謝謝你，傑森。這是一個非常重要的問題。我知道——讓我只談論‘26’，這是你提出問題的方式。儘管我們沒有提供進一步的指導。

Obviously, I think the exciting part for the group is what's achievable in the future, which we'll obviously come back to later in detail, but not for now. So look, the first thing is William laid out, I think, the overall cost trajectory. We've got our hard cost target for this year. And I think language you use William is when you think about achieving the 50% cost income ratio for next year, we are expecting good top line revenue growth, and we're expecting a flattening, not a reduction in costs.

顯然，我認為對團隊來說最令人興奮的部分是未來可以實現的目標，我們稍後會詳細討論這個問題，但現在還不是。所以，首先我認為威廉列出了總體成本軌跡。我們已經確定了今年的硬成本目標。我認為威廉你使用的語言是當你考慮實現明年 50% 的成本收入比時，我們預計營收將有良好的成長，我們預計成本將持平，而不是降低。

And that's how we get to our 50% or less than 50% cost income ratio. So at the macro level of the kind of top line that you look at and you hold us accountable for, I think that's still the right way to look at it. Obviously, for us and how we manage this, it's very differentiated by different parts of the business. So let me just give you some examples. I'll start with the one you started with, which is tech and change.

這就是我們的成本收入比達到 50% 或低於 50% 的方法。因此，從宏觀層面來看，從你所關注的營收情況以及我們對這些營收情況負責的角度來看，我認為這仍然是正確的看法。顯然，對於我們以及我們如何管理這一點而言，業務的不同部分有很大區別。讓我給你舉幾個例子。我將從您開始討論的那個主題開始，即技術和變革。

The dynamic on run and change for tech, sorry, is there's a need for us to continue to drive significant productivity and gross cost saves. And I'll talk about that on both sides.

抱歉，技術運作和變化的動態是我們需要繼續推動顯著的生產力和總成本節約。我將從雙方角度討論這個問題。

But at the same time, we're investing more and delivering more innovation. So we're reinvesting some of that back into the business. and as we also turn to a more heavily -- heavy dependence on tech to run the whole bank as we build productivity elsewhere. We're seeing a higher cost of run.

但同時，我們正在加大投資並實現更多創新。因此，我們將其中一部分資金重新投資到業務中。隨著我們在其他地方提高生產力，我們也將更加依賴科技來經營整個銀行。我們看到運行成本越來越高。

So for example, we've seen significant efficiencies by demising legacy environment by optimizing our relationships with third parties on the run side by automating the way we drive the infrastructure side of technology. So all of the scripts that we run all of our daily processes.

例如，透過自動化推動技術基礎設施方面的方式，優化我們與營運方面的第三方的關係，我們消除了遺留環境，從而實現了顯著的效率提升。因此，我們在日常流程中運行的所有腳本。

However, at the same time, as you know, we're investing in cloud and AI, and those are incremental but there variable costs that we've created the capacity for. On the change side, we've seen a very significant increase in productivity. And at the same time, when we started this phase of the strategic cycle, we had a heavy on third parties for our engineering talent, and we didn't necessarily have the engineering talent that was fit for the new technologies that we're using.

然而，與此同時，正如您所知，我們正在投資雲端運算和人工智慧，這些都是增量的，但存在可變成本，我們已經為其創造了能力。從變化方面來看，我們看到了生產力的顯著提高。同時，當我們開始戰略週期的這個階段時，我們大量依賴第三方來獲取工程人才，而我們並不一定擁有適合我們正在使用的新技術的工程人才。

So we've been through a really significant restructuring of our ways of working, of the way we do productivity for change of the sourcing model and we've attracted a lot of critical talent that's being -- is what's delivering the kind of capabilities that are helping us win today and will be even more important going forward. So that 20%, 30% productivity change has enabled us to do that refreshes the talent and to continue to invest and drive change for what its worth.

因此，我們對工作方式、生產效率的提高方式進行了重大的調整，改變了採購模式，並吸引了大量關鍵人才，這些人才為我們提供瞭如今幫助我們取勝的能力，並且在未來將變得更加重要。因此，20%、30% 的生產力變化使我們能夠做到這一點，更新人才，並繼續投資和推動變革，實現其價值。

And when we do the seminar later in the year, I'm sure Ron, our COO, who is -- and I say this as well, but I can say it with my last job on this one, really one of the best CIOs and COOs in the world. We'll talk about how do we think about our productivity in this space. I think about speed and quality. We need change to radically increase the speed and improve the quality, and that enables us to innovate and compete. Now other parts of the bank's cost base is changing differently.

當我們在今年稍後舉辦研討會時，我相信我們的營運長羅恩——我也這麼說，但我可以用我上一份工作來這麼說，他確實是世界上最好的首席資訊長和營運長之一。我們將討論如何看待這一領域的生產力。我考慮的是速度和質量。我們需要變革來從根本上提高速度和質量，這使我們能夠創新和競爭。現在，銀行成本基礎的其他部分正在發生不同的變化。

You've seen the really significant and market-leading shift towards digital that we have made in our retail bank and how we've continued to significantly increase the productivity of our physical channels. That's a huge cost lever for us. We still, as we digitize and enable customers to get better quality end-to-end services and more digital services are seeing significant opportunity to automate back-office processes and build productivity in those areas. And of course, the kind of efficiency we've seen in decision-making and logic in things like credit decisioning and economic crime, are seeing very, very significant increases.

您已經看到我們零售銀行向數位化邁出的真正重大且市場領先的轉變，以及我們如何繼續大幅提高實體通路的生產力。這對我們來說是一個巨大的成本槓桿。隨著我們數位化並使客戶能夠獲得更優質的端到端服務，越來越多的數位服務正在看到自動化後台流程和提高這些領域生產力的重大機會。當然，我們在信貸決策和經濟犯罪等方面看到的決策效率和邏輯正在顯著提高。

At the same time, relationship managers in our SME business are fundamental. We're improving their productivity, but to grow that business, we know we're going to need to support them and the coverage and trading capability we have and financing capability in our CIB business has been an area we're investing on a marginal basis, significantly below our revenue growth, but still as a net growth cost. So I don't know if that helps kind of how we're seeing the next 18 months, but need the surface, there's some very aggressive gross cost saves, productivity saves, and then we're reinvesting in areas that drive differentiation and growth.

同時，我們中小企業業務中的關係經理也至關重要。我們正在提高他們的生產力，但為了發展這項業務，我們知道我們需要支持他們，而我們的覆蓋範圍和交易能力以及 CIB 業務的融資能力一直是我們邊際投資的領域，遠低於我們的收入成長，但仍然是淨成長成本。所以我不知道這是否有助於我們展望未來 18 個月，但需要從表面上看，有一些非常積極的總成本節約、生產力節約，然後我們會在推動差異化和成長的領域進行再投資。

Net-net, the cost at the top level of the bank. We're seeing we'll deliver GBP9.7 billion this year and then flatten into next year. Just one thought for going forward, of course, is we see the opportunity to continue to drive efficiency and it as an ongoing opportunity -- and then the use of AI and specifically generative AI, we think will give us another ability to drive a step change in that into the future. So we'll talk more about that when we talk about our next phase of our strategy, but that's why we're investing heavily in those capabilities. You mentioned the 8%.

淨額，即銀行頂層的成本。我們預計今年的交付額將達到 97 億英鎊，明年將持平。當然，對於未來，我們只有一個想法，那就是我們看到繼續提高效率的機會，這是一個持續的機會——然後，我們認為使用人工智慧，特別是產生人工智慧，將賦予我們另一種能力，推動未來的重大變革。因此，當我們談論我們策略的下一階段時，我們會更多地談論這一點，但這就是我們在這些能力上投入大量資金的原因。您提到了 8%。

That's exactly what we expect.

這正是我們所期望的。

Chris Cant, Autonomous.

克里斯·坎特（Chris Cant），《自治》。

I just wanted to invite you, Charlie, to comment on the Schroders joint venture in the context of the retail investment opportunity you cited in your earlier remarks. It's obviously something you inherited. Is that something you're happy with the performance of -- and when we think about the retail opportunity going forward with the advice changes, are you expecting to capture that through the JV?

查理，我只是想邀請您根據您在先前評論中提到的零售投資機會對施羅德合資企業進行評論。這顯然是你繼承的東西。您對這樣的表現感到滿意嗎？當我們考慮未來零售機會隨著建議的變化而變化時，您是否希望透過合資企業來抓住這個機會？

Or is it something that you're going to seek to capture more through kind of Lloyd stand-alone product, for instance, that the readymade investments suite that you mentioned. And then in terms of your targets for next year, I appreciate it beyond that. But if I think about your reiteration of the guidance, more than 15% RoTE consensus there, consensus is some way off the cost income target of sub-GBP50 million -- and that's the case even if I adjust for the fact it looks like there's a little bit of motor finance embedded in consensus for next year as well.

或者您是否想透過勞合社獨立產品（例如您提到的現成投資套件）來獲得更多收益。至於您明年的目標，我對此非常感激。但是，如果我考慮到您對指導意見的重申，即超過 15% 的 RoTE 共識，共識與低於 5000 萬英鎊的成本收入目標還有一段距離——即使我根據事實進行調整，情況也是如此，看起來明年的共識中也包含一點汽車融資。

It would still be around 51%. So is consensus missing something in terms of how the targets fit together? Or is it really that you focus on the ROTE and less so the cost income in the context of flattening, I guess, the question boils down to is consensus right to have a nine handle on the cost number for next year?

仍將在 51% 左右。那麼，在目標如何協調方面，共識是否缺少了什麼？或者說，在平緩的背景下，您真正關注的是 ROTE，而不是成本收入，我想，問題歸結為對明年的成本數字設定 9 個數字是否是正確的共識？

Thanks, Chris. Maybe I'll take the first one and then, I mean, I talked a little bit about the other one, but William will give you his view on that. So on the punchline on the wealth one is, we're pleased with SPW. It's actually growing well relative to the market.

謝謝，克里斯。也許我會選擇第一個，然後，我的意思是，我稍微談論另一個，但威廉會就此給出他的看法。因此，關於財富的妙語是，我們對 SPW 感到滿意。相對於市場而言，它實際上成長良好。

It's not a huge part, as you know, of our business model in terms of the revenue, but it is very important for those customers that are looking to full-service advice. And we've been improving the handoff of customers and then the support for customers from our retail businesses and our -- actually, our BCB business is into that, and we're going to continue to do that.

如您所知，就收入而言，它在我們的商業模式中並不佔很大比重，但對於那些尋求全方位服務建議的客戶來說，它非常重要。我們一直在改善客戶的交接，然後改善我們零售業務和我們的客戶的支援 - 實際上，我們的 BCB 業務就是這麼做的，我們將繼續這樣做。

However, I think you asked the question exactly right, Chris. When we look at the targeted advice and broadening out of advice wealth, too much broader retail base in the UK. We think that's going to be much more led by digital first journeys. And by definition, actually, if the regulator won't be a full advice journey because if you were to charge for advice, you couldn't really do the right thing for a customer that's only investing GBP5,000, GBP10,000, GBP5,000, GBP20,000 and as you know, for advice, still in the industry costs somewhere circa GBP1,000 to GBP2,000 depending on the complexity of it.

不過，我認為你問的問題非常正確，克里斯。當我們研究有針對性的建議和擴大建議財富時，英國的零售基礎太廣泛了。我們認為這將更多地由數位化優先旅程所引領。實際上，根據定義，如果監管機構不提供完整的諮詢服務，因為如果您要收取諮詢費用，那麼您就無法為僅投資 5,000 英鎊、10,000 英鎊、5,000 英鎊、20,000 英鎊的客戶做正確的事情，而且如您所知，對於諮詢，行業成本仍然在 1,0000 英鎊左右，具體取決於其複雜程度。

So we definitely think that's where our Ready-Made Investments journey, the broader digital investments that we've done a whole bunch of work we've done with the FCA around our regulatory sandbox to support this new kind of guidance and advice work. And then looking even a bit further into the future, our capabilities around generative AI, we think, will be very helpful for really helping people get a very personalized contextual and relevant set of advice for them in their financial situation to invest safely. So I think that's where we see the growth. William, I'll let you have another crack with what I tried with Jason.

因此，我們確實認為這是我們的現成投資之旅，更廣泛的數位投資，我們與 FCA 圍繞監管沙盒做了大量工作，以支持這種新型的指導和建議工作。展望更遠的未來，我們認為，我們在生成人工智慧方面的能力將非常有助於真正幫助人們獲得非常個人化的背景和相關的建議，以便他們在財務狀況方面進行安全投資。所以我認為這就是我們看到的成長。威廉，我讓你再試一次我和傑森試過的方法。

Thanks, Charlie. Thanks for the question, Chris. The start point is that we expect to meet all of our guidance for next year. That is to say, we expect to meet the ROTE guidance. We expect to meet the capital guidance, and we expect to meet the cost/income ratio guidance.

謝謝，查理。謝謝你的提問，克里斯。起點是我們預計將實現明年的所有目標。也就是說，我們期望滿足 ROTE 指導。我們預計將達到資本指導，我們預計將達到成本/收入比率指導。

As I think I've said before, we will not meet the cost/income ratio guidance by much. I mean this is going to be a fairly close thing, but nonetheless, we do expect to meet it to be very clear, and we will make sure that we meet it. What is going on there? I don't think necessarily the market has seen anything, but maybe just to give you some thoughts from our side.

我想我之前說過，我們不會達到成本/收入比率指導的水平。我的意思是，這將是一件相當接近的事情，但儘管如此，我們確實希望能夠非常清楚地滿足它，並且我們將確保滿足它。那裡發生什麼事了？我認為市場不一定已經看到了什麼，但也許只是從我們的角度給你一些想法。

First of all, when you look back at our year-end results from the end of last year, we gave hopefully, some useful graphics in the context of explaining how we expect income to grow and how we expect costs to stabilize.

首先，當您回顧我們去年年底的年終業績時，我們希望能夠提供一些有用的圖表來解釋我們預期收入如何成長以及我們預期成本如何穩定。

So to elaborate a little on that. First of all, we expect macro is something that is roughly consistent with the numbers that we put out here today. That, of course, is kind of an important underpin -- but with that, we expect the interest income to grow. We've talked a lot about structural hedge today and the strength of that. At the same time, we know what the headwinds are going to do, the mortgage headwind, in particular, is very predictable as it plays itself out during '26, the deposit churn, we expect to continue to be clear for the remainder of this year and going into next, but we do expect it to attenuate as base rates come down.

因此，對此進行一些詳細說明。首先，我們預期宏觀數據與我們今天公佈的數字大致一致。當然，這是一種重要的支撐——但有了這個，我們預計利息收入將會成長。今天我們已經討論了很多有關結構性對沖及其優勢的問題。同時，我們知道逆風會帶來什麼影響，尤其是抵押貸款逆風，這是可以預測的，因為它將在 26 年期間逐漸顯現，我們預計存款流失將在今年剩餘時間和明年繼續顯現，但我們確實預計，隨著基準利率下降，這種影響會減弱。

So those big structural factors within the net interest income and then alongside of that, through a combination of BAU activity and indeed, the benefits of strategic investments, we expect to see volume increases. AIA, as we've talked about during this call, but of course, there's liability-driven volume increases as well as well as many of the capital light, if you like, non-asset-intensive volume increases that we see in some of our related businesses, whether that's OOI within CIB or whether that's many of the initiatives within investments, workplace pensions and the like within insurance.

因此，淨利息收入中的這些重大結構性因素，以及透過結合 BAU 活動和策略投資的好處，我們預計交易量將會增加。正如我們在這次電話會議中討論過的，友邦保險，當然，還有負債驅動的交易量增長，以及我們在一些相關業務中看到的許多輕資本（如果你願意的話）非資產密集型的交易量增長，無論是 CIB 內的 OOI，還是保險內的投資、工作場所養老金等許多舉措。

And these initiatives are maturing pretty much as we speak right now. Charlie mentioned that GI income, for example, is up 35% year-to-date net of claims. That is alongside a series of other initiatives in that area within insurance. These are maturing today, and they continue to step up through the quarter '25 and going into '26. Alongside of that, you've got operational leverage achieved through flatter costs, again, not flat costs but flatter costs.

正如我們現在所說，這些舉措正在逐漸成熟。查理提到，例如，今年迄今為止，美國退伍軍人事務部的收入扣除索賠後已上漲了 35%。這與保險領域內的一系列其他措施同時進行。這些因素如今已日趨成熟，並將在 2025 年季度和 2026 年繼續增強。除此之外，您還可以透過降低成本來實現營運槓桿，再次強調，不是降低成本，而是降低成本。

I won't kind of confirm or deny the 9.8 points that you mentioned in your question, Chris, but you can tell, I hope, the type of flatter cost base that we are building in and then final point, that stronger return comes off the back of a flat TNAV to be clear. We do expect TNAV to grow as part of this. So this is not a question of getting a higher return off of the flat TNAV. In fact, quite different to that. It's a stronger return of a very high TNAV which in turn gives us expectations of credit 15% on an ROTE basis, but also the proceeding points that I made give us confidence that we are going to meet that cost income ratio target.

克里斯，我不會確認或否認你在問題中提到的 9.8 點，但我希望你能看出我們正在構建的更平坦的成本基礎類型，最後一點，更強勁的回報來自於平坦的 TNAV，這一點很清楚。我們確實希望 TNAV 能夠因此而成長。因此，這並不是從固定 TNAV 中獲得更高回報的問題。事實上，情況完全不同。這是非常高的 TNAV 帶來的更強勁的回報，這反過來又使我們預期在 ROTE 基礎上獲得 15% 的信貸，而且我提出的後續要點也讓我們有信心實現成本收入比目標。

We'll make sure we do.

我們一定會做到的。

Thank you. As you know, this call is scheduled 90 minutes, and we have now reached the end of the allotted time. So this is the last question we have time for this morning. If you have any further questions, please contact the Lloyd's Investor Relations team. Our final caller is Sheel Shah from JPMorgan.

謝謝。如您所知，本次通話預計持續 90 分鐘，目前已到達規定時間。這是我們今天早上能回答的最後一個問題。如果您有任何其他問題，請聯絡勞合社投資者關係團隊。我們最後一位來電者是摩根大通的 Sheel Shah。

It's actually a follow-up to the first question that was asked, on the deposit outlook. We've seen some recent policy announcements focusing on the savings gap in the UK, which I think it presents a bit of a risk to deposit flows on the front book -- on the front book going forward, but possibly on the back book as well. I know you previously said that you expect the LDR to rise from current levels of around 95 to above 100. But just wondering how you're thinking about the outlook on liabilities and funding going forward does this change the outlook for deposit growth that you previously had in your forecast?

這實際上是對第一個問題（關於存款前景）的後續回答。我們看到最近一些政策公告重點關注英國的儲蓄缺口，我認為這對前台帳戶的存款流動構成了一定風險——對前台帳戶的未來而言，但對後台帳戶而言，也可能如此。我知道您之前說過，您預計 LDR 將從目前的 95 左右上升到 100 以上。但我只是想知道您如何看待未來負債和融資的前景，這是否會改變您之前預測的存款成長前景？

Yes. Thanks for that question, Sheel. I'll kick off and then hand over to Charlie because it has both a financial and a strategic component to it. Your question is around the much talked about encouragement, if you like, towards investment that we saw evidence in the recent Mansion House speech and how that might affect the funding and deposit flows than the business going forward.

是的。謝謝你的提問，Sheel。我將開始工作然後交給查理，因為它既有財務部分，也有戰略部分。您的問題是關於人們經常談論的鼓勵投資，如果您願意的話，我們在最近的 Mansion House 演講中看到了證據，以及這將如何影響資金和存款流動以及未來的業務。

So with that in mind, as you can see, we've had -- we've enjoyed very strong deposit growth during the first half of this year. We expect continued deposit growth during the second part of this year. The fund -- the loan-to-deposit ratio within the business right now is 95%, as you can see. That gives us an awful lot of room for continued asset growth going forward and in support of those AIA expects that I mentioned for second half of '25 and indeed going into 2026.

考慮到這一點，正如您所看到的，我們在今年上半年實現了非常強勁的存款成長。我們預計今年下半年存款將持續成長。如您所見，該基金目前的業務貸存比率為 95%。這為我們未來資產的持續成長提供了巨大的空間，並支持了我所提到的友邦保險對 2025 年下半年乃至 2026 年的預期。

The strength of the deposit franchise is really across the piece from personal current accounts through (inaudible) and into fixed term I think the -- any encouragement that is given to investment deployment, if you like, I do not see is coming at the expense of the overall deposit base, which I think will continue to stay strong. because of the strength of the franchise, because of the strength of the brands, the product offerings, the branch network, the customer base and so forth, I think that is going to continue to be the case.

存款特許經營的實力確實貫穿了從個人活期帳戶到（聽不清楚）再到定期帳戶的各個方面，我認為——任何鼓勵投資部署的措施，如果你願意的話，我都不認為是以犧牲整體存款基礎為代價的，我認為整體存款基礎將繼續保持強勁。由於特許經營的實力，由於品牌的實力、產品供應、分支機構網絡、客戶群等等，我認為這種情況將繼續下去。

There is a point, and this is where I'll hand over to Charlie that if individuals are encouraged to diversify their investments, it is most likely to impact those individuals that are otherwise going into cash, fixed-term savings. Those cash fixed-term savings are inherently the lower margin part of the deposit base that we have. And when they go into investments, there is a decent chance and there's actually some margin pickup from that transfer. And if it does being a kind of if you like, bancassure, who has a combined cash and investment offering, which is, of course, one of our key strategic advantages is something that we'll be very happy to accommodate. I'll hand over to Charlie for the strategic perspectives.

有一點，在這裡我要交給查理，如果鼓勵個人分散投資，那麼最有可能影響到那些原本會選擇現金和定期儲蓄的個人。這些現金定期儲蓄本質上是我們存款基礎中利潤較低的部分。當他們進行投資時，就會有相當大的機會，而這種轉移實際上會帶來一些利潤成長。如果它確實是一種銀保業務，提供現金和投資相結合的服務，這當然是我們的主要策略優勢之一，我們非常樂意提供這種服務。我將把策略觀點交給查理。

Yes. Thanks, William. I think you made the key points. Look, there's a few other markets in the world that are pretty mature on this. And what you learned from them is those two things.

是的。謝謝，威廉。我認為您說出了關鍵點。你看，世界上還有其他一些市場在這方面已經相當成熟了。你從他們身上學到的就是這兩件事。

First of all, you really want to be the provider, whether people are holding their money in cash or in equities but they're holding in a tech or nin a pension solution or straight in a self-directed platform, you want to be there for your customers. and be able to meet their needs and the way you build sustainable through-cycle profitability for Lloyds Banking Group will be to be that provider.

首先，你確實想成為提供者，無論人們是以現金還是股票形式持有資金，但他們是持有技術或退休金解決方案或直接持有自主導向平台，你都希望為客戶服務。並且能夠滿足他們的需求，而你為勞埃德銀行集團建立可持續的全週期盈利能力的方式就是成為這樣的提供者。

And what's exciting for us in this context is we're almost unique in the UK and our ability to bring those services and those offerings. And then the second thing that William said, which is critical, which is if we are successful, we'll typically be taking lower value deposits and putting them into investments or equities. And that's not always the case at different times in the cycle for different customers, but it's exactly where you would start.

在此背景下，令我們興奮的是，我們在英國幾乎是獨一無二的，我們有能力提供這些服務和產品。然後，威廉說的第二件事很關鍵，那就是如果我們成功了，我們通常會吸收較低價值的存款並將其投入投資或股票。對於不同的客戶，在周期的不同時間點，情況並不總是如此，但這正是您應該開始的地方。

The third thing that's important, look, I hope this happens relatively quickly. my experiences in other markets is this will take us a few years. I hope we build confidence more broadly in the UK to invest appropriately in risk-based assets. I think it will be good for all of us, actually, including everyone's call and for the UK.

第三件重要的事情是，我希望這能相對較快發生。我在其他市場的經驗是，這將需要幾年時間。我希望我們能夠更廣泛地建立英國對基於風險的資產進行適當投資的信心。我認為這實際上對我們所有人都有好處，包括每個人的呼籲以及英國。

But my experience is it doesn't happen overnight. It happens over a few years, building confidence, people making decisions. And then typically, what you'll see customers will try a smaller part of their wealth before they start investing into it. And so you really want to build savings habits and have solutions to do that. And that comes back to the discussions earlier in this call about you do that with great digital engagement, great brand and a very, very simple way of accessing and then pivoting your portfolio.

但我的經驗是，這不會在一夜之間發生。這個過程需要幾年時間，人們會建立信心，做出決定。通常情況下，你會看到客戶在開始投資之前會先嘗試一小部分財富。因此，您確實希望養成儲蓄習慣並找到解決方案。這又回到了本次電話會議早些時候的討論，即透過出色的數位參與、出色的品牌以及非常非常簡單的方式來存取和調整您的投資組合。

So yes, a really important development. I don't see it having a big impact overnight. We are going to be well placed to take advantage of it.

是的，這是一個非常重要的發展。我認為它不會在一夜之間產生巨大影響。我們將充分利用這一優勢。

I think that may be the last question. So just to say thank you to everybody for participating and for your questions this morning. I hope you found it useful session and have an enjoyable time.

我認為這可能是最後一個問題。所以，我只想對大家今天早上的參與和提問表示感謝。我希望您發現這次會議很有用並且度過了愉快的時光。

Thanks, everyone.

謝謝大家。

This concludes today's call. There will be a replay of the call and webcast available on the Lloyds Banking Group website. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。勞埃德銀行集團網站將提供電話會議和網路直播的重播。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。