Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our 2024 full year results presentation at our brilliant new London headquarters. We will officially open the building to colleagues over the coming weeks. So we are very pleased to welcome you as our first guests.

大家早安，感謝您參加我們在倫敦新總部舉行的 2024 年全年業績發表會。我們將在未來幾週內正式向同事開放大樓。因此，我們非常高興歡迎您成為我們的第一位客人。

Let's hope everything goes all right. As we now reached the end of our first phase of our five year strategic transformation, our presentation will be slightly longer today. I'll start with a brief overview before handing over to William, who will run through the 2024 financials in detail. After this, I'm excited to share more detail on our strategic progress over the first three year phase as well as our plans for the remaining two years as we continue to transform the business at pace.

希望一切順利。由於我們現在已經到了五年策略轉型第一階段的結束，所以今天的演講會稍微長一點。我將首先進行簡要概述，然後交給威廉，他將詳細介紹 2024 年的財務狀況。在此之後，我很高興與大家分享更多有關我們前三年戰略進展的細節，以及我們剩餘兩年的計劃，因為我們將繼續快速轉變業務。

We'll then have the usual time allocated for your questions. Let me begin on slide 3. I'd like to start by highlighting three key messages. Firstly, our purpose led strategy is continuing to deliver strong outcomes for all stakeholders. We've made excellent progress in the first phase driving broad based momentum and positioning us well to accelerate our transformation in the second phase.

然後，我們將安排通常的時間來解答您的問題。我從幻燈片 3 開始。首先我想強調三個關鍵訊息。首先，我們的目標主導策略將持續為所有利害關係人帶來強勁成果。我們在第一階段取得了顯著進展，推動了廣泛的發展勢頭，為加速第二階段的轉型做好了準備。

Secondly, our financial performance in 2024 was robust, in line with guidance. Our highly capital generative business model enables strong shareholder distributions, including a 15% increase in the ordinary dividend and a share buyback of GBP1.7 billion.

其次，我們 2024 年的財務表現強勁，符合指引。我們高度資本產生的商業模式能夠實現強勁的股東分配，包括普通股息增加 15% 以及 17 億英鎊的股票回購。

This is despite an additional GBP700 million provision relating to motor finance commissions taken in the fourth quarter. And finally, we're providing new guidance for 2025 and reaffirming our target for '26. We remain confident of delivering higher and more sustainable returns.

儘管第四季額外提列了 7 億英鎊的汽車金融佣金撥備，但情況仍然如此。最後，我們為2025年提供了新的指導，並重申了2026年的目標。我們仍有信心實現更高、更永續的回報。

On slide 4, I'll briefly cover how our purpose is driving value for all our stakeholders. We have a long standing purpose of helping Britain prosper, and a proven track record over many years of delivering outcomes that benefit all our stakeholders.

在投影片 4 中，我將簡要介紹我們的目標如何為所有利害關係人創造價值。我們長期以來致力於幫助英國繁榮，並且多年來已取得令所有利益相關者受益的成果。

Our actions provide clear benefits for our customers and communities across the UK, whilst driving business value and supporting the real economy in areas where we're placed to lead the change. At the same time, these actions unlock new attractive growth opportunities for the group.

我們的行動為英國各地的客戶和社區帶來了明顯的利益，同時推動了商業價值並支持了我們引領變革領域的實體經濟。同時，這些舉措也為集團釋放了新的有吸引力的成長機會。

For example, as the UK's largest mortgage lender, we're deeply involved in the housing sector. We've now lent nearly GBP100 billion to first time buyers since 2018, including GBP15 billion in 2024. Alongside, we've continued to build our customers' financial resilience and savings.

例如，作為英國最大的抵押貸款機構，我們深度涉足住房領域。自 2018 年以來，我們已向首次購屋者貸款近 1,000 億英鎊，其中包括 2024 年的 150 億英鎊。同時，我們也將持續增強客戶的財務韌性和儲蓄。

And in the last few years, we've provided nearly GBP20 billion of funding to the social housing sector, GBP90 billion of infrastructure financing, and almost GBP50 billion of sustainable financing. As you heard from me at the half year, we welcome the emphasis placed on sustainable economic growth by the government.

在過去幾年裡，我們為社會住宅領域提供了近 200 億英鎊的資金，900 億英鎊的基礎設施融資，以及近 500 億英鎊的可持續融資。正如大家在半年報中聽到的，我們對政府對永續經濟成長的重視表示歡迎。

This combined with signs of an improving macro backdrop and resilient fundamentals for consumers and businesses, positions the UK for faster growth. We believe we're well placed to support this.

再加上宏觀環境改善的跡像以及消費者和企業基本面的強勁成長，英國有望實現更快的成長。我們相信我們有能力支持這一點。

Turning now to the strategic progress on slide 5. I'll elaborate on this in more detail in the second part of my presentation. But I wanted to briefly highlight the strong progress we've made in the first phase of our strategic transformation across 2022 to '24.

現在就來看幻燈片 5 的策略進展。我將在演講的第二部分更詳細地闡述這一點。但我想簡要地強調我們在 2022 年至 2024 年戰略轉型第一階段所取得的重大進展。

Significantly, we've returned the franchise to growth. This has been delivered through multiple levers, including leveraging our digital leadership position and increasing focus on higher value areas such as mass affluent. At the same time, we've reinforced our efficiency position with an increased focus on end-to-end digitization and the simplification of our technology estate.

值得注意的是，我們已讓特許經營重新恢復成長。這是透過多種手段實現的，包括利用我們的數位領導地位以及更加關注大眾富裕階層等更高價值領域。同時，我們更加重視端到端數位化和技術資產的簡化，從而鞏固了我們的效率地位。

Our success in both areas is a result of the transformation of the group's capabilities across people, technology and data. We've made great strides in this area, significantly increasing the hiring of key engineering talent and adopting new technologies to drive innovation, creating the platform for the next phase.

我們在這兩個領域的成功是集團在人員、技術和數據方面的能力轉型的結果。我們在這一領域取得了長足進步，大幅增加了關鍵工程人才的聘用，並採用新技術來推動創新，為下一階段奠定了平台。

Our execution in the first three years has already delivered clear financial benefits, including circa GBP2 billion of net income growth, a turnaround in our other income lines, and significant improvements in returns and capital distributions. On the latter, our capital distributions over the past three years exceed GBP11 billion. As I'll discuss later, we see further financial upside looking ahead 2026.

我們在前三年的執行已經帶來了明顯的財務效益，包括約20億英鎊的淨收入成長、其他收入線的改善以及回報和資本分配的顯著改善。就後者而言，我們過去三年的資本分配超過 110 億英鎊。正如我稍後將討論的那樣，展望 2026 年，我們預計財務方面將有進一步的上升空間。

I'll now close this section with a brief look at our 2024 financials on slide 6. Building upon our continued strategic progress, our financial performance in 2024 was robust, with positive business momentum in both the fourth quarter and over the course of the full year.

現在，我將透過在第 6 張投影片上簡要介紹我們的 2024 年財務狀況來結束本節。基於我們持續的策略進步，我們 2024 年的財務業績表現強勁，第四季度和全年的業務勢頭都保持了積極的勢頭。

Our 2024 financials also demonstrate delivery against the medium term guidance we laid out for the first phase of our strategic plan. We've delivered GBP0.8 billion of additional revenues from strategic initiatives, ahead of our GBP0.7 billion target, and GBP1.2 billion of gross cost savings more than offsetting the impact of paying inflation during the period.

我們的 2024 年財務狀況也表明，我們已經實現了為策略計畫第一階段所製定的中期指導方針。我們透過策略性舉措實現了 8 億英鎊的額外收入，超出了 7 億英鎊的目標，並且實現了 12 億英鎊的總成本節約，這足以抵消同期通貨膨脹的影響。

Our 2024 return on tangible equity and capital generation were impacted by the additional provision relating to finance commissions. However, both were ahead of the circa 13% and circa 175 basis points, excluding this. I'll provide more details on our financial performance on a three year view as well as the outlook to 2026 in the second part of my presentation.

我們 2024 年的有形權益報酬率和資本創造受到與財務佣金相關的額外撥備的影響。不過，若不包括此項，二者均領先約 13% 和約 175 個基點。我將在演講的第二部分詳細介紹我們三年的財務表現以及 2026 年的展望。

But for now, I'll hand over to William to cover 2024 in more detail.

但現在，我會把話題交給威廉，讓他更詳細地介紹 2024 年。

Thanks, Charlie. Good morning, everybody. Thank you again for joining. As usual, I'll provide an overview of the group's financial performance, starting on slide 8. Lloyds Banking Group delivered a robust financial performance in Q4 and indeed in 2024 as a whole.

謝謝，查理。大家早安。再次感謝您的加入。像往常一樣，我將從第 8 張幻燈片開始概述該集團的財務表現。勞埃德銀行集團在第四季乃至整個 2024 年都表現強勁。

Statutory profit after tax for the year was GBP4.5 billion or GBP5 billion, excluding the Q4 motor provision. This equates to a return on tangible equity of 12.3% or 14% ex-motor. Supported by franchise growth, net income for the full year was GBP17.1 billion. This includes a net interest margin of 2.95% in line with guidance, alongside 9% growth in other operating income.

全年法定稅後利潤為 45 億英鎊，若不包括第四季的汽車撥備則為 50 億英鎊。這相當於有形資產回報率為 12.3% 或 14%（不含汽車）。受特許經營成長的推動，全年淨收入達到171億英鎊。其中包括符合預期的2.95%的淨利差，以及其他營業收入9%的成長。

In Q4, net income was GBP4.4 billion, up 1% versus Q3. This was driven by 1% growth in net interest income, in turn, supported by a rising quarterly net interest margin consistent with the improvement that started in Q3. Full year operating costs of GBP9.4 billion were up 3% year-on-year, again, in line with our guidance.

第四季度，淨收入為44億英鎊，較第三季成長1%。這是由淨利息收入成長 1% 所推動的，而這又受到季度淨利差上升的支持，與第三季開始的改善情況一致。全年營運成本為 94 億英鎊，年增 3%，再次符合我們的預期。

Asset quality remains strong. The impairment charge for the year of GBP433 million equates to an asset quality ratio of 10 basis points or 19 basis points pre-releases from changes to our economic assumptions. Meanwhile, TNAV per share increased to 52.4p, up 1.6p in the year. Our performance delivered capital generation of 148 basis points in the year or 177 basis points, excluding the Q4 motor provision.

資產品質依然強勁。年度減損費用4.33億英鎊相當於資產品質比率10個基點，或根據我們的經濟假設變化而提前發布的19個基點。同時，每股 TNAV 增至 52.4 便士，比去年同期上漲 1.6 便士。我們的業績在全年實現了 148 個基點的資本創造，若不包括第四季度的汽車撥備，則為 177 個基點。

I'll now turn to slide 9 to talk through our balance sheet growth. Lending and deposits continued to exhibit robust growth in 2024. Group lending balances of GBP459 billion were up GBP9 billion or 2% in the year and over GBP2 billion in Q4.

我現在將轉到第 9 張投影片來討論我們的資產負債表成長。2024年貸款和存款持續呈現強勁成長。集團貸款餘額為 4,590 億英鎊，年增 90 億英鎊，增幅 2%，第四季增加超過 20 億英鎊。

Within this, we delivered another strong quarter of mortgage growth, up GBP2.2 billion or GBP3.2 billion, excluding legacy book securitization. Staying within Retail lending, in Q4, credit card balances were flat, slightly reduced spend offset by lower repayment rates. Unsecured lending balances were up slightly, whilst motor finance in Black Horse was down, driven by lower dealer stocking.

其中，我們又實現了一個季度的強勁抵押貸款成長，成長了 22 億英鎊（不包括遺留帳簿證券化），增幅為 32 億英鎊。繼續零售貸款領域，在第四季度，信用卡餘額持平，支出略有減少，但還款利率下降。無擔保貸款餘額略有上升，而受經銷商庫存減少的影響，Black Horse 的汽車融資出現下降。

Commercial lending balances were down slightly by GBP1 billion in 2024, although up when excluding government backed lending repayments. In Q4, a reduction of GBP0.3 billion was led by lower balances in PCB, outweighing growth in our CIB franchise.

2024 年，商業貸款餘額小幅下降了 10 億英鎊，但如果不包括政府支持的貸款償還額，則有所上升。第四季度，由於 PCB 餘額減少，導致 3 億英鎊的減少，超過了我們 CIB 特許經營權的增長。

Turning to liability franchise. Deposits grew by 2% or GBP11 billion during the year. The year finished with Q4 growth in deposits of GBP7 billion. Within this, we saw an increase of 1% quarter-on-quarter in retail, with savings accounts up GBP4 billion and current accounts up GBP0.7 billion.

轉向責任特許經營。年內存款增加了 2%，即 110 億英鎊。今年第四季存款增加了 70 億英鎊。其中，零售額較上季成長 1%，儲蓄帳戶增加 40 億英鎊，活期帳戶增加 7 億英鎊。

Deposit churn continues to ease as we had anticipated. In PCA, there was some benefit in the quarter from calendar effects and the impact of the October budget, but the underlying stability in balances is an encouraging performance.

正如我們預期的那樣，存款流失繼續緩解。在PCA中，日曆效應和10月預算的影響在本季度帶來了一些好處，但餘額的基本穩定性是一個令人鼓舞的表現。

Q4 commercial deposits were up GBP1.9 billion quarter-on-quarter. This was mainly driven by CIB, reflecting growth in targeted sectors as well as some positive FX impacts. Alongside these developments, insurance, pensions and investments saw GBP5.3 billion of net new money in 2024, GBP1.8 billion in Q4.

第四季商業存款較上季增加19億英鎊。這主要得益於 CIB 的推動，反映了目標產業的成長以及一些正面的外匯影響。除了這些發展之外，保險、退休金和投資在 2024 年的淨新增資金為 53 億英鎊，第四季為 18 億英鎊。

Turning now to interest income on slide 10. The group delivered net interest income of GBP12.8 billion in 2024. This included growth of 1% in Q4 over the prior quarter, continuing the upturn that started in Q3. Average interest earning assets for the year were GBP451 billion, in line with our guidance.

現在來看第 10 頁的利息收入。該集團 2024 年實現淨利息收入 128 億英鎊。其中第四季較上一季成長 1%，延續了第三季開始的上升勢頭。全年平均生息資產為 4,510 億英鎊，符合我們的預期。

Q4 AIAs were GBP455 billion, up GBP4 billion off the back of the lending growth that we saw in the second half of the year. The full year net interest margin was 295 basis points. Q4 margin was 297 basis points, up 2 basis points from Q3, and continuing to increase at a gradual pace as we had anticipated.

第四季的 AIA 為 4550 億英鎊，由於下半年貸款增長而增加了 40 億英鎊。全年淨利差為295個基點。第四季利潤率為 297 個基點，較第三季上升 2 個基點，並繼續以我們預期的速度穩定成長。

The 2024 non-banking NII charge was GBP469 million, with a Q4 charge of GBP122 million, probably a little lower than we had expected. Going forward, we will focus on net interest income in our guidance. This is to simplify our approach and to focus on what matters, i.e., income.

2024 年非銀行 NII 費用為 4.69 億英鎊，第四季費用為 1.22 億英鎊，可能比我們預期的略低。展望未來，我們的指引將聚焦在淨利息收入。這是為了簡化我們的方法並專注於重要的事情，即收入。

In 2025, we expect net interest income to grow to around GBP13.5 billion, up about GBP700 million from last year. This guidance is built on expected further robust lending and deposit growth and a significant increases in the contribution from the structural hedge. These tailwinds will be partly offset by some further churn in deposits and the impact of rate reductions alongside a continuation of the mortgage refinancing headwind.

2025年，我們預計淨利息收入將成長至約135億英鎊，比去年增加約7億英鎊。該指引建立在預期貸款和存款將進一步強勁增長以及結構性對沖貢獻大幅增加的基礎之上。這些順風因素將被存款的進一步流失、利率降低的影響以及抵押貸款再融資逆風的持續部分抵消。

These pressures remain meaningful, but they will gradually ease through the year. As I said, we'll no longer be providing guidance around our net interest margin. However, to support the transition, our 2025 net interest income expectations are consistent with the banking NIM of around 305 basis points.

這些壓力仍然很大，但它們將在一年內逐漸緩解。正如我所說，我們將不再提供有關淨利差的指導。然而，為了支持轉型，我們對 2025 年淨利息收入的預期與銀行淨利息收入約 305 個基點一致。

Let me now move to our mortgage book on slide 11. Mortgage performance in 2024 was strong. Mortgage book grew by GBP6.1 billion in the year or GBP8 billion, excluding legacy book securitizations. This growth is a result of a recovering market and our strategic initiatives, helping to support a 20% share of new lending over the year around 1 percentage point ahead of our share of stock.

現在讓我轉到第 11 張投影片上的抵押貸款帳簿。2024 年的抵押貸款表現強勁。抵押貸款帳簿在當年增長了 61 億英鎊，若不包括遺留帳簿證券化則增加了 80 億英鎊。這一成長是市場復甦和我們策略舉措的結果，有助於支持全年 20% 的新增貸款份額，比我們的庫存份額高出約 1 個百分點。

Our expectation is for further growth in the mortgage book this year, supported by a continued recovery in the market and robust new business share. Completion margins in the fourth quarter remained resilient at around 75 basis points, stable on Q3. This remains below margins on our maturing mortgages. However, the difference will continue to narrow this year before then playing itself out in 2026.

我們預計，在市場持續復甦和新業務份額強勁的支持下，今年的抵押貸款規模將進一步成長。第四季的完成利潤率保持穩定，約 75 個基點，與第三季持平。這仍然低於我們到期抵押貸款的利潤率。然而，今年這一差距將持續縮小，並將在 2026 年逐漸縮小。

Let me now turn to our other asset books on slide 12. We saw a solid performance in our consumer and commercial lending portfolios in 2024. Combined balances for cards, unsecured loans and motor were up GBP2.8 billion in the year or 8%.

現在讓我轉到第 12 張投影片上的我們的其他資產帳簿。2024 年，我們的消費者和商業貸款組合表現穩健。信用卡、無擔保貸款和汽車貸款的綜合餘額在去年增加了 28 億英鎊，增幅為 8%。

Within this, unsecured loans were up GBP2.2 billion on the back of organic growth as well as lower repayment volumes following the securitization in 2023. Cards were up GBP0.6 billion or 4%. Motor balances were flat as we focused on attractive growth opportunities in leasing business and in particular, Tusker.

其中，無擔保貸款由於有機增長以及 2023 年證券化後還款量下降而增加了 22 億英鎊。信用卡業務增加了 6 億英鎊，增幅為 4%。由於我們專注於租賃業務（尤其是Tusker）中有吸引力的成長機會，因此汽車餘額持平。

Turning to Commercial Banking. Lending was down GBP1 billion in the year. Targeting boost in CIB, including key strategic areas such as infrastructure and project finance was more than offset by net repayments in PCB, including the GBP1.6 billion of government-backed lending.

轉向商業銀行。當年貸款減少了10億英鎊。包括基礎設施和專案融資等關鍵策略領域在內的 CIB 目標成長被 PCB 的淨償還額（包括 16 億英鎊的政府支援貸款）所抵消。

Let's take a look at deposits on slide 13. Our deposit franchise did well in 2024. Total deposits were up by over GBP11 billion or 2% to GBP483 billion. In retail, we continue to see the benefits of our attractive and differentiated propositions.

讓我們看一下投影片 13 上的存款。我們的存款特許經營權在 2024 年表現良好。總存款增加了110多億英鎊，即2%，達到4,830億英鎊。在零售領域，我們繼續看到我們具有吸引力的差異化主張所帶來的好處。

Total retail balances were up GBP11 billion in the year. Current account balances ended at GBP101 million, reflecting a slightly better performance than expected with increasing wages, gyro credits and slow spend. In particular, it was pleasing to see our market share of balance is increasing over the period.

全年零售總額增加了110億英鎊。經常帳餘額最終為 1.01 億英鎊，由於工資增加、陀螺儀信貸和支出放緩，表現略好於預期。尤其令人高興的是，我們的市佔率在這段時間內不斷增加。

Savings were up GBP13.4 billion in the year, supported by continued significant inflows in particular, to our limited withdrawal products. Given the rate environment, we saw further deposit churn in 2024, but as anticipated, it has eased over the year.

今年儲蓄增加了134億英鎊，這主要得益於我們有限提款產品的持續大量流入。考慮到利率環境，我們預計 2024 年存款流失將進一步增加，但正如預期的那樣，今年存款流失情況有所緩解。

Commercial deposits were broadly stable in the year. PCB balances increased by GBP1.3 billion due to targeted growth initiatives in mid-corporates, offset by an expected outflow in CIB concentrated in the third quarter.

全年商業性存款基本穩定。由於中型企業有針對性的成長舉措，PCB 餘額增加了 13 億英鎊，但被第三季集中的 CIB 預期流出所抵消。

The performance of our deposit franchise supports the structural hedge. So let me now turn to that. The structural hedge is a significant and strengthening tailwind to income. The hedge notional currently stands at GBP242 billion, while down GBP5 billion in 2024, the notional was stable in the second half of the year off the back of our strong deposit performance.

我們的存款特許經營權的表現支持結構性對沖。現在讓我來談談這個問題。結構性對沖對收入而言是一個重要且強勁的推動力。目前對沖名目金額為 2,420 億英鎊，雖然 2024 年下降了 50 億英鎊，但由於我們強勁的存款表現，下半年名目金額保持穩定。

Last year, hedge income was GBP4.2 billion, GBP0.8 billion higher than 2023. The average yield on the hedge was 1.7%, increasing to over 1.9% in the fourth quarter. And as you know, the reinvestment rate as the hedge rolled over, continues to be significantly higher than the current yield. The weighted average life of the hedge meanwhile remains stable at around 3.5 years.

去年對沖收入為42億英鎊，比2023年高出8億英鎊。對沖平均殖利率為1.7%，第四季升至1.9%以上。如您所知，隨著對沖的延續，再投資利率仍然明顯高於當前收益率。同時，對沖的加權平均壽命保持穩定在3.5年左右。

Looking forward, based on our national and soft rate expectations, we're guiding for hedge income this year to be GBP1.2 billion higher than 2024. Thereafter, we expect 2026 hedge income to a further GBP1.5 billion higher than in 2025.

展望未來，基於我們的國家和軟利率預期，我們預計今年的對沖收入將比 2024 年高出 12 億英鎊。此後，我們預計 2026 年的對沖收入將比 2025 年再增加 15 億英鎊。

Moving to other income on slide 15. 2024 was another year of encouraging and broad-based growth in other income. We expect this pattern to continue. Other income of GBP5.6 billion was 9% higher than the prior year. Despite Q4 being a seasonally weaker quarter, it was flat versus Q3 and indeed 11% up year-on-year.

轉到投影片 15 的其他收入。我們預計這種模式將會持續下去。其他收入為56億英鎊，比上年增長9%。儘管第四季度是季節性較弱的一個季度，但與第三季度相比持平，並且年增 11%。

Growth during the year was evidenced across the division, driven by higher customer activity and by our strategic investment. Retail was up 10% year-on-year, supported by our strengthening contribution from our motor leasing business and a resilient performance across our other banking income lines.

在客戶活動增加和策略性投資的推動下，整個部門都實現了全年成長。零售額年增 10%，這得益於我們汽車租賃業務的貢獻不斷增強以及其他銀行收入線的強勁表現。

Commercial was up 8% versus 2023 driven by a positive performance in our Markets business across the year. Growth was supported by share gains as well as by higher client activity. Insurance, pensions and investments OOI was up 7% year-on-year. This included healthy growth within General Insurance as well as workplace pensions and individual annuities.

由於我們全年市場業務的積極表現，商業收入較 2023 年增長了 8%。市場份額的增加和客戶活動的增加推動了成長。保險、退休金和投資 OOI 年比成長 7%。這包括一般保險以及工作場所退休金和個人年金的健康成長。

We also saw growth in other income associated with the group's equity investment businesses in the year. This was driven by Lloyd's Living previously, Citra and LDC. Looking forward, as we continue to invest in our strategic initiatives across the business, we expect strong growth in other income to continue.

我們也看到該集團股權投資業務相關的其他收入在本年度有所增長。這一趨勢之前由 Lloyd's Living、Citra 和 LDC 推動。展望未來，隨著我們繼續對整個業務的策略性舉措進行投資，我們預計其他收入將繼續強勁成長。

Turning to operating lease depreciation. The 2024 charge of GBP1.3 billion included GBP331 million in Q4. Card price developments followed our expectations as we set out at H1. Looking forward, we expect this charge to grow in line with fleet growth and higher value vehicles, supporting progress in other income.

轉向經營租賃折舊。2024 年的費用為 13 億英鎊，其中包括第四季的 3.31 億英鎊。正如我們在上半年所預期的那樣，卡片價格的發展符合我們的預期。展望未來，我們預計該費用將隨著車隊的成長和車輛價值的提高而成長，從而支持其他收入的成長。

Let me move to costs on slide 16. Operating costs were GBP9.4 billion in 2024, again, in line with our guidance. This represents 3% growth year-on-year or 2% excluding the sector-wide BOE charge introduced in the first quarter. Cost discipline remains an imperative for the group. Last year, we continue to invest while offsetting inflationary pressure with further cost savings.

讓我轉到第 16 張投影片上的「費用」部分。2024 年的營運成本為 94 億英鎊，同樣符合我們的預期。這意味著年增 3%，若不計第一季引入的全行業 BOE 費用，則增長 2%。成本紀律對於該集團來說仍然是至關重要的。去年，我們繼續投資，同時透過進一步節省成本來抵銷通膨壓力。

We now hit our target of GBP1.2 billion of gross cost saves versus 2021. Most recently, Q4 operating costs were GBP2.5 billion, stable on Q3, excluding the annual payment of the bank levy. Looking ahead to this year, we expect operating costs of circa GBP9.7 billion. This is in the context of continued investment alongside inflationary pressures, partly offset by ongoing efficiency benefits.

與 2021 年相比，我們現已實現了節省 12 億英鎊的總成本的目標。最近，第四季的營運成本為 25 億英鎊，與第三季持平，不包括年度銀行稅。展望今年，我們預計營運成本約為 97 億英鎊。這是在持續投資和通膨壓力的背景下發生的，但持續的效率效益部分抵消了這種影響。

It also includes the impact of higher national insurance contributions, which are equivalent to about GBP100 million per annum. Our continued tight BAU cost control enabled us to make ongoing investment into the business to support our growth ambitions within our planned cost budgets.

其中還包括更高的國民保險繳款的影響，相當於每年約 1 億英鎊。我們持續嚴格的 BAU 成本控制使我們能夠對業務進行持續投資，以在計劃的成本預算內支持我們的成長目標。

This means that our investment in severance spend, 2026, will be slightly higher than previously planned, driving further income growth, cost savings and reinforcing operating leverage. All of this is consistent with our 2026 ambitions, including the below 50% cost to income ratio.

這意味著我們在 2026 年遣散費方面的投資將略高於先前的計劃，從而進一步推動收入成長、成本節約並加強經營槓桿。所有這些都符合我們 2026 年的目標，包括低於 50% 的成本收入比。

The remediation charge is GBP899 million for the full year, and GBP775 million in the quarter. GBP700 million of the charge relates to the incremental motor finance provision. Stepping back for the typical full year run rate, we still see GBP200 million to GBP300 million is an appropriate guide.

全年補救費用為8.99億英鎊，本季補救費用為7.75億英鎊。其中 7 億英鎊的費用與增量汽車融資條款有關。回顧典型的全年運行率，我們仍然認為 2 億至 3 億英鎊是一個合適的指導價。

I'll elaborate on motor finance on the next slide. In Q4, we took an additional GBP700 million provision for the potential remediation costs relating to motor commission arrangements. This provision is following the recent quarter of appeal judgment, which changes the previously understood law around the disclosure and consent to motor commissions. It also goes beyond the scope of the original FCA review.

我將在下一張投影片中詳細說明汽車融資。第四季度，我們額外提列了 7 億英鎊，用於支付與汽車佣金安排相關的潛在補救費用。該規定是根據最近一個季度的上訴判決做出的，它改變了先前對機動車委員會披露和同意的法律理解。這也超出了FCA原先審查的範圍。

In this context, we welcome the Expedited Supreme Court hearing at the beginning of April. I'll take a moment to explain the framework around the provision. Provision is built upon a number of key inputs, including the potential outcomes from the Supreme Court appeal, any subsequent FCA intervention.

在此背景下，我們歡迎四月初舉行的最高法院快速聽證會。我將花一點時間來解釋該條款的框架。該規定基於一系列關鍵輸入，包括最高法院上訴的可能結果以及任何後續的 FCA 幹預。

And depending on that, the potential remedy per case the customer claim rate, the potential rate of interest applied and so forth. These inputs give rise to a range of scenarios against which we assess probabilities to determine the probability weighted provision.

並且取決於此，每個案件的潛在補救措施、客戶索賠率、潛在適用的利率等等。這些輸入產生了一系列情景，我們根據這些情景評估機率來確定機率加權準備金。

Clearly, there's significant uncertainty around each of these inputs. But combined with the previous provision of GBP450 million, the total amount of GBP1.15 billion represents our best estimate. The final financial impact could, of course, differ meaningfully, both higher or lower from the amount that we have provided.

顯然，每個輸入都存在很大的不確定性。但加上之前的4.5億英鎊撥備，11.5億英鎊的總金額是我們的最佳估計。當然，最終的財務影響可能會有很大差異，可能高於或低於我們提供的金額。

Let me now turn to asset quality on slide 18. Asset quality remains very strong. It reflects our prime customer base and a prudent approach to risk. 2024 impairment charge was GBP433 million, equivalent to an asset quality ratio of 10 basis points. This incorporates a low underlying charge as well as some one-offs such as the release of inflationary judgments.

現在我來談談第 18 張投影片上的資產品質。資產品質依然強勁。它反映了我們的主要客戶群和審慎的風險處理方式。 2024年減損費用為4.33億英鎊，相當於資產品質比率為10個基點。這包括較低的基礎費用以及發布通膨判斷等一些一次性措施。

It also benefits from improvements in our economic assumptions or MES throughout the year. On a pre-MES basis, the impairment charges are still low GBP827 million, an AQR of 19 basis points. The Q4 impairment charge is GBP160 million or 14 basis points, including a GBP70 million MES credit. Pre-MES, the charge is 20 basis points.

這也受益於我們全年經濟假設或 MES 的改進。在 MES 之前的基礎上，減損費用仍然較低，為 8.27 億英鎊，AQR 為 19 個基點。第四季的減損費​​用為 1.6 億英鎊或 14 個基點，其中包括 7,000 萬英鎊的 MES 信貸。MES 之前，費用為 20 個基點。

Our stock of ECL on the balance sheet is now GBP3.7 billion. About GBP450 million in excess of our base case and like-for-like higher than pre-pandemic levels. Looking forward, we expect the asset quality ratio to be circa 25 basis points for 2025 based upon our stated economic assumptions.

我們資產負債表上的預期信用損失存量目前為 37 億英鎊。比我們的基準預測高出約 4.5 億英鎊，且較去年同期上升至疫情前的水準。展望未來，根據我們所陳述的經濟假設，我們預期 2025 年的資產品質比率將達到約 25 個基點。

Let me move to slide 19 and briefly look at our portfolio. Our portfolio is low risk and highly resilient. New to arrears in UK mortgages improved throughout 2024. Over two-thirds of our book are now on payment rates in excess of 3%, with the portfolio, of course, having been stress tested to much higher rates.

讓我轉到第 19 張投影片並簡單介紹一下我們的投資組合。我們的投資組合風險低且彈性大。2024 年英國抵押貸款拖欠情況將有所改善。我們帳簿上三分之二以上的資產的償還利率目前都超過3%，當然，投資組合也已經接受過更高利率的壓力測試。

Our mortgage book average LTV stands at 43.7%. The reason defaults across other portfolios remain low and in most cases falling. Importantly, across retail and commercial, early warning indicators continue to be reassuring.

我們的抵押貸款平均 LTV 為 43.7%。原因是其他投資組合的違約率仍然很低，而且大多數情況下還在下降。重要的是，在零售和商業領域，預警指標繼續令人放心。

In retail, for example, minimum payers in cards remain low and stable. Commercial, we're seeing stable SME working capital utilization trends. Our asset quality performance has been underpinned by extensive derisking in recent years, both in retail and in commercial portfolios. A lower ECL and our improved results in recent external stress tests testified to this progress.

例如，在零售業，信用卡的最低還款額仍然較低且穩定。商業方面，我們看到中小企業營運資金利用趨勢穩定。近年來，無論是零售還是商業投資組合，我們的資產品質表現都得到了廣泛降低風險的支持。較低的 ECL 和我們在最近的外部壓力測試中改善的結果證明了這一進展。

Moving on, I'll turn to slide 20, let's take a look at the updated macroeconomic outlook. The macroeconomic outlook continues to be stable. In the fourth quarter, we've made only minor revisions to our forecast in Q3. We now forecast 1% growth in GDP for 2025.

接下來，我翻到第 20 張投影片，讓我們來看看更新的宏觀經濟展望。宏觀經濟前景持續穩定。在第四季度，我們僅對第三季的預測做了小幅修改。我們現在預測2025年GDP成長1%。

We expect three 25 basis point cuts in the UK bank rate this year. We then expect a further two cuts in 2026. Our unemployment forecast remains largely unchanged, averaging 4.7%, both in 2025 and in 2026. We expect modest house price growth of around 2% this year, supported by a lower rate environment.

我們預計英國銀行利率今年將下調三次，每次25個基點。我們預計 2026 年還會再降息兩次。我們對失業率的預測基本上保持不變，2025 年和 2026 年的平均失業率均為 4.7%。在低利率環境的支撐下，我們預計今年房價將溫和上漲 2% 左右。

As usual, we present a full set of economic and associated ECL provisions in the appendix. So moving on, let's turn to slide 21 to look at the below the line items, TNAV and RoTE. Return on tangible equity for 2024 was 12.3%.

像往常一樣，我們在附錄中提供了全套經濟和相關的預期信用損失條款。接下來，我們翻到第 21 張投影片來查看下面的項目，TNAV 和 RoTE。2024 年有形股本回報率為 12.3%。

Excluding the motor provision, the full year RoTE was 14%. Within this, restructuring costs were low at GBP40 million in the year and GBP19 million in Q4. The volatility and other items charge was GBP332 million in the year, and GBP150 million in the final three months.

除去汽車撥備，全年股東權益報酬率為 14%。其中，重組成本較低，當年為 4,000 萬英鎊，第四季為 1,900 萬英鎊。當年的波動性及其他項目費用為 3.32 億英鎊，最後三個月的費用為 1.5 億英鎊。

The fourth quarter charge in particular, was significantly driven by negative insurance volatility and the rate movements that we saw. Tangible net assets per share at 52.4p were up 1.6p in 2024. The increase over the year was driven by profits and a reduced share count from our buyback program.

尤其是第四季的費用，很大程度上受到負面保險波動和我們看到的利率變動的影響。每股有形淨資產為 52.4 便士，到 2024 年上漲 1.6 便士。今年以來的成長主要得益於利潤以及回購計畫導致的股份數量減少。

This was offset by shareholder distributions. In Q4, growth in TNAV per share dampened by the motor provision was more than offset by the impact of higher rates on the cash flow hedge reserve and the pension surplus.

這被股東分配所抵銷。在第四季度，汽車撥備抑制了每股 TNAV 的成長，但這一增長被利率上調對現金流避險準備金和退休金盈餘的影響所抵消。

Looking ahead, we expect TNAV per share to materially grow as the business builds alongside support from the unwind of the cash flow hedge reserve and the reduced share count from the buyback. In 2025, including the impact of a growing TNAV, we expect to return on tangible equity circa 13.5%.

展望未來，我們預計，隨著業務的發展以及現金流對沖儲備解除和回購減少的股份數量帶來的支持，每股 TNAV 將大幅成長。到 2025 年，包括 TNAV 成長的影響在內，我們預計有形資產回報率將達到約 13.5%。

Let me now turn to capital generation on slide 22. Group delivered capital generation in the year of 148 basis points or 177 basis points, excluding the motor provision. This strong underlying capital build is in line with our expectations and before motor, consistent with our target of circa 175 basis points for the full year.

現在讓我轉到第 22 張投影片上的資本創造部分。集團當年的資本創造額為 148 個基點，不包括汽車撥備，則為 177 個基點。這一強勁的基礎資本累積符合我們的預期，在汽車之前，與我們全年約 175 個基點的目標一致。

Within this, risk-weighted assets were GBP224.6 billion, in line with the guidance that we set out in 2022. The GBP5.5 billion increase in the year includes lending growth as well as GBP3.3 billion relating to our adjustments for CRD IV secured risk weightings.

其中，風險加權資產為 2,246 億英鎊，符合我們在 2022 年制定的指導方針。今年 55 億英鎊的成長包括貸款成長以及與我們對 CRD IV 擔保風險權重的調整有關的 33 億英鎊。

We've previously guided that CRD IV was going to result in about GBP5 billion of incremental RWA growth from 2024 to '26. We now expect the ultimate impact may be modestly greater than this, depending upon our discussions with the PRA.

我們先前曾預測，CRD IV 將導致 2024 年至 2026 年期間 RWA 增量成長約 50 億英鎊。我們現在預計最終的影響可能會略大於此，這取決於我們與 PRA 的討論。

Suffice to say, we will continue to focus on RWA efficiency and optimization to offset these regulatory pressures. While on the topic of regulatory change, you'll know that Basel 3.1 has now been delayed to the start of 2027. We expect this to lead to a moderate reduction in RWAs when it is eventually implemented.

可以這麼說，我們將繼續專注於 RWA 效率和最佳化，以抵消這些監管壓力。說到監管變化，您會知道巴塞爾協議 3.1 現已推遲到 2027 年初。我們預計，當政策最終實施時，將導致 RWA 適度減少。

At the end 2024, our closing CET1 ratio after our dividend and buyback distributions is 13.5%. This meets our guidance to pay down to this level by the end of the year. Looking forward, we expect 2025 capital generation to be circa 175 basis points and to move to our target CET1 ratio of 13% by the end of 2026.

截至 2024 年底，我們支付股利和回購後的期末 CET1 比率為 13.5%。這符合我們在年底前將還款額降至這一水平的指導目標。展望未來，我們預計 2025 年的資本創造率將達到約 175 個基點，到 2026 年底，CET1 比率將達到我們的目標 13%。

I'll now move to slide 23 to discuss distributions. We remain highly committed to returning capital to shareholders. Our consistent capital generation underpins strong distributions. For 2024, with a robust financial performance and capital position enables the Board to announce a final ordinary dividend of 2.11p per share for a total of 3.17p.

我現在轉到第 23 張投影片來討論分佈。我們仍然高度致力於向股東返還資本。我們持續的資本創造支撐了強勁的分配。對於 2024 年，憑藉強勁的財務業績和資本狀況，董事會可以宣布每股 2.11 便士的末期普通股息，總計 3.17 便士。

This is up 15% on the prior year. In addition to the final dividend, today, we're announcing a buyback of GBP1.7 billion. This is a good result after taking into account the additional motor provision. Together, this means that the group will distribute a total of up to GBP3.6 billion in respect to 2024, around 9% of our market cap.

這比上年增長了 15%。除了末期股利外，今天我們也宣布回購 17 億英鎊。考慮到附加馬達配置後，這仍然是一個很好的結果。總的來說，這意味著到 2024 年，該集團將分配總計高達 36 億英鎊的資金，約占我們市值的 9%。

Dividend is now around 60% higher than it was in 2021. Our consecutive buyback programs meanwhile, so far reduced share count by more than 15% over the same period. Going forward, prospects for continued healthy growth in our distributions are good.

現在的股息比 2021 年高出約 60%。同時，我們連續的回購計畫迄今已導緻同期股票數量減少了 15% 以上。展望未來，我們的分銷業務持續健康成長的前景良好。

Let me now wrap up the financial section of the presentation on slide 24. In sum, 2024 represented another robust financial performance, reflecting income growth in the second half of the year as well as continued cost discipline and reassuring asset quality.

現在，讓我總結一下第 24 張投影片上的簡報的財務部分。總而言之，2024 年再次取得了強勁的財務業績，反映了下半年的收入成長以及持續的成本控制和令人放心的資產品質。

Together, this offers strong capital generation and healthy distributions. We are building firm foundations. For 2025, we now expect net interest income to be circa GBP13.5 billion. Operating costs to be circa GBP9.7 billion. The asset quality ratio to be circa 25 basis points.

總之，這提供了強大的資本創造和健康的分配。我們正在奠定堅實的基礎。到 2025 年，我們預計淨利息收入將達到約 135 億英鎊。營運成本約為97億英鎊。資產品質比率約25個基點。

The return on tangible equity to be circa 13.5% and capital generation, to be circa 175 basis points. We also reconfirm our 2026 targets, which you've seen before and laid out here on the slide. We are confident of delivering higher, more sustainable returns.

有形資產報酬率約為 13.5%，資本創造率約為 175 個基點。我們也再次確認了我們的 2026 年目標，您之前已經看過並在投影片上進行了闡述。我們有信心實現更高、更永續的回報。

That concludes my comments this morning. Thank you for listening. I'll now hand back to Charlie to provide an update on our strategic progress.

這是我今天早上的評論。感謝您的聆聽。現在我將把麥克風交還給查理，讓他報告我們的策略進展。

Many thanks, William. So it's now been three years since we presented our strategic plan covering the period to 2026, with 2024, representing a major checkpoint along this journey. I'm very encouraged with the progress we've made to date, and I'm highly confident of delivering long term differentiation across our businesses, cementing our position as a leading national champion.

非常感謝，威廉。自從我們提出至 2026 年的策略計畫以來，已經過去了三年，而 2024 年是這一歷程中的一個重要關口。我對我們迄今為止所取得的進展感到非常鼓舞，並且我非常有信心在我們的業務中實現長期差異化，鞏固我們作為全國領先冠軍的地位。

In this section, I want to share with you the following key messages. Firstly, our purpose driven strategy is delivering and driving long term competitive advantage across the business. Secondly, there have been a number of key strategic deliveries in the first phase, which are creating broad based momentum.

在本節中，我想與大家分享以下關鍵資訊。首先，我們的目標是實現並推動整個業務的長期競爭優勢。其次，第一階段已經實現了一系列關鍵策略成果的實現，創造了廣泛的發展動能。

And thirdly, we are excellently positioned to accelerate our transformation in the second phase and deliver an enhanced financial profile to 2026. Let's start on slide 26 with an overview of our strategy.

第三，我們已做好準備，在第二階段加速轉型，到 2026 年實現更佳的財務狀況。讓我們從第 26 張投影片開始概述我們的策略。

We have a clear strategy anchored around our purpose of helping Britain prosper. Our strategic priorities of grow, focus, and change, build upon and reinforce our competitive advantages that come from our deep scale, customer relationships, our proven track record and efficiency, and our commitment to being a leader when it comes to digital technology.

我們有一個明確的策略，其核心目標是幫助英國繁榮。我們的策略重點是發展、專注和變革，建立並加強我們的競爭優勢，這些優勢源自於我們的深厚規模、客戶關係、我們經過驗證的業績記錄和效率，以及我們致力於成為數位技術領域的領導者。

Our strategic execution is enhancing our customer proposition, whilst at the same time, delivering a compelling investment case for our shareholders. This is characterized by growing revenues and significant operating leverage, supporting strong returns and increased distribution capacity.

我們的策略執行正在增強我們的客戶主張，同時為我們的股東提供令人信服的投資案例。其特點是收入不斷增長、經營槓桿顯著增加，從而支持強勁的回報和增強的分銷能力。

Building on this on slide 27, I'll provide a brief reminder of the opportunities we identified when we started our transformation in 2022. Our strategy is built upon strong foundations. As a leading integrated financial services provider in the UK, the group's scale, distinctive customer propositions, broad product offering and trusted brands, provide a platform from which we can unlock our full potential.

基於第 27 張投影片，我將簡要回顧我們在 2022 年開始轉型時發現的機會。我們的策略建立在堅實的基礎上。作為英國領先的綜合金融服務供應商，集團的規模、獨特的客戶主張、廣泛的產品供應和值得信賴的品牌為我們提供了一個充分發揮潛力的平台。

To achieve this, a number of strategic opportunities were identified in 2022. This included returning the group to growth, derisking in a number of areas, further improving our cost and capital efficiency. and transforming our digital AI and talent to further differentiate our services for customers and position us for the future.

為實現這一目標，2022年確定了許多戰略機會。這包括使集團恢復成長、在多個領域降低風險、進一步提高我們的成本和資本效率。並轉變我們的數位人工智慧和人才，以進一步為客戶提供差異化的服務，並為我們的未來做好準備。

There are a few specific targeted outcomes that we did not deliver in the first phase. But overall, we've made excellent progress in this regard, and I'll provide examples of this over the coming slides. Looking ahead, with the majority of derisking activities now complete, we see the opportunity to accelerate the scale of our transformation over the next two years as we become unencumbered by some of these challenges.

我們在第一階段未能達成一些具體的目標成果。但總體而言，我們在這方面取得了顯著進展，我將在接下來的幻燈片中提供相關範例。展望未來，隨著大多數風險降低活動已經完成，隨著我們不再受到其中一些挑戰的束縛，我們看到了在未來兩年內加速轉型規模的機會。

This will support the delivery of a truly differentiated franchise for both our customers and shareholders by 2026 and a stronger competitive position for us to progress into the future.

這將支持我們在 2026 年前為客戶和股東提供真正差異化的特許經營權，並為我們未來的發展提供更強大的競爭地位。

Starting on slide 28, I'll highlight the progress we've made across our three strategic pillars. When we laid out the strategy in February '22, we provided you with a selection of targeted outcomes that would help you track the progress we were making to 2024.

從第 28 張投影片開始，我將重點放在我們在三大策略支柱上的進展。當我們在 2022 年 2 月制定策略時，我們為您提供了一系列有針對性的成果，以幫助您追蹤我們在 2024 年之前所取得的進展。

Encouragingly, we have successfully delivered 80% of these. In a few areas, we're slightly behind our original expectations, such as mass affluent investment flows as higher interest rates drove a shift to savings instead. However, this has been more than offset by meaningfully surpassing our targets in other areas.

令人鼓舞的是，我們已經成功實現了其中的80％。在某些領域，我們略微落後於最初的預期，例如，由於更高的利率推動了向儲蓄的轉變，大量富裕的投資流動。然而，我們在其他領域大幅超越目標，足以抵銷這一損失。

A full scorecard of our progress has been provided in the appendix. As a result, we've delivered GBP0.8 billion of additional revenues from strategic initiatives ahead of target, and realized GBP1.2 billion of gross cost savings, having increased this from GBP1 billion.

附錄中提供了我們進展的完整記分卡。結果，我們透過策略性舉措提前實現了 8 億英鎊的額外收入，並實現了 12 億英鎊的總成本節約（之前為 10 億英鎊）。

We've delivered this at the same time as undertaking significant derisking activity, such as addressing a GBP7 billion pension deficit, more than halving our legacy mortgage portfolio, removing circa 650 legacy technology applications, and achieving GBP18 billion of RWA optimization over the three years.

我們在實現這一目標的同時，也開展了重大的風險降低活動，例如解決 70 億英鎊的退休金赤字、將遺留抵押貸款組合減少一半以上、刪除約 650 個遺留技術應用程序，並在三年內實現 180 億英鎊的 RWA 優化。

The ability to deliver these outcomes whilst also growing the core franchise, demonstrates a shift in organizational agility. Looking at our strategic priorities in order, on slide 29, I'll highlight the strong revenue momentum our growth has delivered in the first three years.

在實現這些成果的同時發展核心特許經營權的能力，體現了組織敏捷性的轉變。按順序來看看我們的策略重點，在第 29 頁上，我將重點介紹我們在前三年實現的強勁收入成長勢頭。

The first phase of our strategy represented a clear shift in focus towards growth. Aligned to this, we've built momentum across the business, and in turn, delivered net income growth of nearly GBP2 billion since 2021. We've seen meaningful headwinds during this period, including margin pressures for the runoff of our SVR mortgage book and a prolonged period of weaker front book margins.

我們的策略第一階段明顯體現出向成長的重點轉變。與此一致，我們在整個業務範圍內建立了發展勢頭，並自 2021 年以來實現了近 20 億英鎊的淨收入成長。我們在這段期間看到了明顯的阻力，包括 SVR 抵押貸款帳簿流失帶來的保證金壓力，以及長期的頭期帳簿利潤率下降。

Operating lease depreciation has also normalized from historically low levels, whilst the runoff of government backed lending has acted as a drag on our commercial banking business. In aggregate, this headwind has more than offset a GBP2 billion increase in structural hedge income in the period.

經營租賃折舊也已從歷史低點恢復正常，而政府支持貸款的減少對我們的商業銀行業務造成了拖累。總體而言，這一不利因素抵消了該期間結構性對沖收入 20 億英鎊的成長幅度有餘。

However, this has been outweighed by approximately GBP3 billion of net income growth from the core franchise. This includes the GBP0.8 billion of additional revenues from strategic initiatives, combined with more than GBP2 billion of BAU income growth.

然而，核心特許經營權約 30 億英鎊的淨收入增長抵消了這一增長。其中包括來自策略性舉措的8億英鎊額外收入，以及超過20億英鎊的BAU收入成長。

Whilst latter does capture the benefit of higher rates, it also reflects strong growth not linked to our strategic investment, such as in IP&I and CIB, where we have benefited from increased focus. Our revenue growth also includes a significant contribution from other income, with an 11% CAGR over the period across our three main reporting divisions.

雖然後者確實獲得了更高利率的好處，但它也反映了與我們的策略投資無關的強勁增長，例如在 IP&I 和 CIB 方面，我們從這些領域的關注度增加中受益。我們的營收成長還包括其他收入的重大貢獻，我們三個主要報告部門在此期間的複合年增長率為 11%。

This is in line with our focus on growing more diversified revenue streams and reducing long term NII reliance. Let me now explain on slide 30, how we've delivered this strong growth. As you've heard in our half yearly updates and through our investor seminars, we have multiple levers to drive revenue growth.

這符合我們致力於增加更多樣化的收入來源和減少長期對 NII 的依賴的重點。現在，讓我在第 30 張投影片上解釋我們如何實現這一強勁成長。正如您在我們的半年更新和投資者研討會中所聽到的，我們有多種槓桿來推動收入成長。

Firstly, we've delivered growth through the core franchise, supported by our renewed growth focus and strengthened capabilities. For example, our gross mortgage lending share in 2024 was the highest for over a decade. We delivered strong growth in segments of strength, such as first-time buyers, whilst investments in intermediary journeys and our home hub ecosystem are driving improved acquisition and retention outcomes.

首先，我們透過核心特許經營實現了成長，這得益於我們新的成長重點和增強的能力。例如，我們 2024 年的抵押貸款總額份額是十多年來最高的。我們在首次購屋者等優勢領域實現了強勁成長，同時對中間旅程和家居中心生態系統的投資正在推動獲取和保留結果的改善。

Secondly, we're deepening relationships across the group, leveraging our broad offering to meet more needs for our customers and clients. Our market leading digital experiences, trusted relationship teams and advanced data insights are a key to this.

其次，我們正在深化整個集團的關係，並利用我們廣泛的產品來滿足客戶的更多需求。我們市場領先的數位體驗、值得信賴的關係團隊和先進的數據洞察是實現這一目標的關鍵。

Thirdly, we're driving growth in high value areas such as mass affluent. Previously, we did not have a dedicated proposition for this important customer group. But in the past three years, we've grown our customer base to over 3 million and increased banking balances by around GBP25 billion.

第三，我們正在推動大眾富裕階層等高價值領域的成長。此前，我們並沒有針對這群重要的客戶群提出專門的主張。但在過去三年裡，我們的客戶群已經成長到300多萬，銀行存款增加了約250億英鎊。

And finally, we're driving greater cross group collaboration, increasing the penetration of protection, home insurance and investments across our retail customer base, and driving greater links between our workplace business and CIB clients. This is an area where we see more opportunity looking forward, increasing access to the group's unique breadth of businesses.

最後，我們正在推動更大範圍的跨集團合作，提高保護、家庭保險和投資在我們的零售客戶群中的滲透率，並加強我們的工作場所業務和 CIB 客戶之間的聯繫。我們在這個領域看到了更多的機遇，增加了集團獨特業務範圍的管道。

Turning now to our second strategic pillar, focus, which covers both cost and capital efficiency. I'll start with costs on slide 31. Our commitment to cost efficiency is equally important as our growth focus with both contributing to improving operating leverage. Our GBP1.2 billion of gross cost savings have more than offset elevated pay and inflation period.

現在談談我們的第二個策略支柱，重點，它涵蓋成本和資本效率。我將從第 31 張投影片開始討論成本。我們對成本效率的承諾與我們的成長重點同等重要，兩者都有助於提高營運槓桿。我們節省了12億英鎊的總成本，足以抵銷薪資上漲和通貨膨脹的影響。

These savings were broad based, but with meaningful contributions from our technology decommissioning efforts, the consolidation of our office footprint and improving efficiency within our branch network as we shift to mobile first. These savings have mitigated headwinds and created capacity to drive growth in the business.

這些節約是基礎廣泛的，但我們在向行動優先轉型的過程中，技術退役努力、辦公場所整合和分支機構網路效率提高都做出了有意義的貢獻。這些節省減輕了不利因素並創造了推動業務成長的能力。

This investment capacity will help unlock the additional revenues from strategic initiatives that we've targeted for 2026, with many of these having a lower marginal cost income ratio than the group today. As well as enabling further gross cost savings, we continue to target a cost income ratio of less than 50% by 2026.

這種投資能力將有助於釋放我們為 2026 年設定的策略計畫帶來的額外收入，其中許多計畫的邊際成本收入比低於集團目前的水平。除了進一步節省總成本外，我們還將繼續努力實現 2026 年成本收入比低於 50% 的目標。

As you'd expect from us, costs will remain a key area of focus over the next few years and beyond. Turning now to capital efficiency. Our second priority within the focus pillar on slide 32. Our strategic participation choices are supportive of driving improved cap efficiency growing in fee-generating capital-light areas.

正如您對我們的期望，成本在未來幾年及以後仍將是關注的重點領域。現在來談談資本效率。這是我們在第 32 張投影片中重點提到的第二大優先事項。我們的策略參與選擇有助於推動費用產生較少資本領域的資本效率提高。

However, we've also proactively delivered significant RWA optimization since 2021, supported by growing originate to distribute capabilities within our CIB business and increasing adoption of SRT transactions. This optimization activity has more than offset regulatory inflation in the period, ensuring that RWA growth is more closely aligned to business growth with our end 2024 position within the GBP220 billion to GBP225 billion guidance we provided three years ago.

然而，自 2021 年以來，我們也積極實現了重大的 RWA 優化，這得益於我們 CIB 業務中發起到分銷能力的不斷增長以及 SRT 交易的日益採用。此項優化活動足以抵銷同期的監管通膨，確保 RWA 成長與業務成長更加緊密地結合在一起，2024 年底我們的 RWA 水準將處於我們三年前提供的 2,200 億至 2,250 億英鎊的指引範圍內。

Ongoing optimization actions, combined with portfolio derisking we've undertaken increase the predictability of capital generation going forward. On slide 33, I'll move to our third pillar, change. Critical to our growth priorities is the way we leverage our strength in technology and data to drive improved customer and business outcomes.

正在進行的最佳化行動，加上我們已經採取的投資組合去風險措施，提高了未來資本產生的可預測性。在第 33 張投影片上，我將轉到我們的第三個支柱，即變革。對於我們的成長重點來說，至關重要的是如何利用我們在技術和數據方面的優勢來推動改善客戶和業務成果。

Having established the largest UK retail digital bank with over 20 million app users and over 6 billion log-ons, our focus has been twofold. Firstly, to replicate this success across the group, delivering best-in-class digital experiences that drive superior levels of engagement in areas such as IP&I and BCB.

我們建立了英國最大的零售數位銀行，擁有超過 2000 萬應用程式用戶和超過 60 億次登錄，我們的重點是雙重的。首先，在整個集團複製這一成功，提供一流的數位體驗，推動 IP&I 和 BCB 等領域的更高水準的參與。

It's early days in both areas, but our progress is encouraging. For example, our Scottish Widows app was rolled out to workplace customers during 2024. And as already recorded 8 million log-ons as customer interaction increases off the back of personalized experiences and innovative gamification.

這兩個領域都還處於早期階段，但我們的進展令人鼓舞。例如，我們的「蘇格蘭寡婦」應用程式於 2024 年向工作場所客戶推出。隨著個人化體驗和創新遊戲化的發展，客戶互動不斷增加，登入次數已達 800 萬次。

This level of engagement is significant in an area that customers have historically neglected, and we see scope for further improvements over time as we extend this to more of our ignite customer base and eventually the open market.

這種程度的參與對於客戶歷來忽視的領域具有重要意義，隨著我們將其擴展到更多的點燃客戶群並最終擴展到開放市場，我們看到了進一步改進的空間。

Secondly, we're focused on driving greater value from our engagement shifting our digital businesses from a servicing channel to one of acquisition too. To enable this shift, we've delivered a number of innovative propositions over the last three years. I'll cover some of these on slide 34.

其次，我們專注於從我們的參與中獲取更大的價值，將我們的數位業務從服務管道轉變為收購管道。為了實現這一轉變，我們在過去三年中提出了許多創新主張。我將在第 34 張投影片上介紹其中的一些內容。

We have meaningfully increased the pace of innovation since 2021, building and scaling unique mobile-first propositions across our core customer ecosystems. By leveraging new technologies and harnessing the power of the significant data asset, we've been able to meet clear customer needs, drive greater engagement and ultimately deliver business value.

自 2021 年以來，我們大幅加快了創新步伐，在我們的核心客戶生態系統中建立和擴展了獨特的行動優先主張。透過利用新技術並發揮重要數據資產的力量，我們能夠滿足明確的客戶需求、推動更大的參與度並最終實現商業價值。

For example, our mobile-first home hub ecosystem available to both relationship and intermediary customers is a one-stop shop helping customers to improve their home ownership experience, from understanding the value of their homes to sourcing retrofit solutions.

例如，我們的行動優先家居中心生態系統可供關係客戶和中介客戶使用，是一站式服務，幫助客戶改善他們的房屋所有權體驗，從了解房屋價值到尋找改造解決方案。

This has driven increased direct customer engagement in a highly intermediated market, and is ultimately improving our retention experience and building deeper relationships. Similarly, we have meaningfully scaled and expanded your credit score, improving creditworthiness and driving increased conversion rates and lending volumes for the business.

這推動了高度中介化的市場中直接客戶的參與度提高，並最終改善了我們的保留體驗並建立了更深的關係。同樣，我們也大幅擴大了您的信用評分，提高了信用度，並提高了企業的轉換率和貸款量。

Having initially focused on eligibility linked to personal loans, customers are now able to consider the full suite of retail products from car finance to mortgages. This level of innovation would not have been possible three years ago and is a testament to the organizational and cultural change that has taken place.

客戶最初關注的是與個人貸款相關的資格，現在可以考慮從汽車金融到抵押貸款的全套零售產品。這種程度的創新在三年前是不可能實現的，它證明了組織和文化已經改變了。

This has been supported by our targeted investments in technology and talent in key areas, including the hiring of more than 4,000 technology and data specialists. Having covered our progress to date, I'll now shift to focus on the second phase and cover our exciting plans for 2025 and '26, starting on slide 35.

這得益於我們在關鍵領域對技術和人才的定向投資，包括聘請 4,000 多名技術和數據專家。在介紹了我們迄今為止的進展後，我現在將把重點轉移到第二階段，並從第 35 張幻燈片開始介紹我們 2025 年和 2026 年令人興奮的計劃。

Our strategy is a five year one, and therefore, many of the items that I've discussed in the first phase will continue to be relevant as we move through to 2025 and '26. Before commenting on our strategic priorities, let me take a moment to reflect on the external environment we see over the next few years.

我們的策略是五年策略，因此，我在第一階段討論的許多事項在 2025 年和 2026 年仍將具有現實意義。在評論我們的策略重點之前，請允許我花一點時間來思考未來幾年我們所看到的外部環境。

We believe this provides a supportive backdrop for our strategy during this period and for broader investment in the UK. As William said, our current forecast for the UK is for a resilient but slow growth economy. However, we see both the opportunity for economic growth to accelerate and for Lloyds Banking Group to grow faster than the economy. This is for a few key reasons.

我們相信這為我們在此期間的策略以及在英國的更廣泛投資提供了支持背景。正如威廉所說，我們目前對英國經濟的預測是具有彈性但成長緩慢。然而，我們既看到了經濟成長加速的機會，也看到了勞埃德銀行集團成長速度超過經濟成長的機會。這有幾個主要原因。

Firstly, households and businesses financial health has strengthened again in 2024. The government is committed to growth and regulatory reform and sees financial services as an important part of enabling it. Although there's significant geopolitical uncertainty, we see the UK is well placed to navigate it relative to other economies and expect base rates to continue to come down through 2026.

首先，2024年家庭和企業的財務健康狀況再次增強。政府致力於成長和監管改革，並將金融服務視為實現這一目標的重要組成部分。儘管存在巨大的地緣政治不確定性，但我們認為，相對於其他經濟體，英國處於有利地位，預計基準利率將持續下降至 2026 年。

And finally, our strategy is focused on higher growth economic areas such as housing, infrastructure, transition finance, pensions and mass affluent customers. In that context, during the next two years, we will build on the strong foundations and business momentum we've developed in the first phase to drive growth across the group with a focus on high value areas.

最後，我們的策略重點是住房、基礎設施、過渡融資、退休金和大眾富裕客戶等高成長經濟領域。在此背景下，未來兩年，我們將在第一階段打下的堅實基礎和業務動能的基礎上，重點放在高價值領域，推動整個集團的成長。

Our commitment to cost and capital efficiency will be reinforced by further savings, delivering strong operating leverage, whilst we will extend optimization capabilities further to mitigate headwinds and facilitate growth.

我們對成本和資本效率的承諾將透過進一步的節省、提供強大的營運槓桿來加強，同時我們將進一步擴展優化能力，以減輕阻力並促進成長。

And we'll begin the next phase of our technology transformation, increasing the adoption of new technologies, including extending Gen AI use cases across the group, driving benefits in both the near and longer term. Over the coming slides, I'll talk through our priorities for each of the main business units, where we're building upon our existing strength to drive long term competitive advantage.

我們將開始技術轉型的下一階段，增加新技術的採用，包括在整個集團範圍內擴展 Gen AI 用例，以在短期和長期內帶來利益。在接下來的幻燈片中，我將討論我們每個主要業務部門的優先事項，我們將在現有優勢的基礎上推動長期競爭優勢。

Let me start with our consumer relationships business within retail on slide 36. Our consumer business has significant scale and reach. We have relationships with over half of the UK adult population with leading positions across both products and channels. Our strategic focus within consumer relationships is to deliver market leading mobile-first and highly personalized experiences.

讓我從第 36 張投影片上的零售業的消費者關係業務開始講起。我們的消費者業務規模龐大，影響力大。我們與超過一半的英國成年人口建立了關係，在產品和通路方面均處於領先地位。我們在消費者關係方面的策略重點是提供市場領先的行動優先和高度個人化的體驗。

This complemented by targeted human interactions, will drive more meaningful engagement with our customers, allowing us to meet more of their broader lifetime needs and further increase depth of relationship.

結合針對性的人際互動，我們將與客戶進行更有意義的互動，滿足他們更廣泛的終身需求，並進一步加深關係。

In line with our focus on growing in high value areas, we are further enhancing our mass affluent offering. Our new PCA proposition will be a key lever for increasing customer acquisition and building deeper relationships with a customer group that has more needs than that of the mass market.

為了符合我們對高價值領域發展的關注，我們正在進一步增強我們面向大眾富裕階層的服務。我們新的 PCA 主張將成為增加客戶獲取和與比大眾市場需求更多的客戶群建立更深層關係的關鍵槓桿。

We're also exploring the use of GenAI as a channel, providing personalized financial goal planning and money management journeys for customers as we continue to identify ways to close the advice gap.

我們也正在探索使用 GenAI 作為管道，為客戶提供個人化的財務目標規劃和資金管理歷程，同時繼續尋找縮小建議差距的方法。

Turning now to consumer lending on slide 37. We are a leading provider across all the main retail lending product lines in which we participate with number one shares in mortgages, credit cards, loans and transport.

現在轉到第 37 頁的消費貸款。我們是所有主要零售貸款產品線的領先供應商，在抵押貸款、信用卡、貸款和運輸領域佔有第一的份額。

Our focus is to maintain these leadership positions through ongoing improvements to customer journeys across all channels whilst delivering innovative new solutions to drive deeper customer engagement and value.

我們的重點是透過持續改善所有管道的客戶旅程來保持這些領導地位，同時提供創新的新解決方案來推動更深入的客戶參與和價值。

In mortgages, we're focused on maintaining strong gross lending flows, increasing participation in high-value areas and meeting more needs across the homes ecosystem. In unsecured, we will build upon the strong progress in the first phase where we grew share in key areas such as credit card spend and loans, the latter by around 3 percentage points.

在抵押貸款方面，我們專注於維持強勁的總貸款流量，增加高價值地區的參與，並滿足整個住房生態系統的更多需求。在無擔保方面，我們將在第一階段取得強勁進展的基礎上再接再厲，提高信用卡消費和貸款等關鍵領域的份額，其中貸款份額將增加約 3 個百分點。

Over the next two years, we plan to drive further value from the your credit score and scale our differentiated embedded finance offering, FlexPay, having launched this at the end of 2024. And in transport, we will maintain our strong share through targeted participation in high growth areas, including our fast growing salary sacrifice business, Tusker.

在未來兩年內，我們計劃進一步提升您的信用評分價值，並擴大我們差異化的嵌入式金融產品 FlexPay 的規模（該產品已於 2024 年底推出）。在交通運輸領域，我們將透過有針對性地參與高成長領域來維持強勁的市場份額，包括我們快速成長的薪酬犧牲業務Tusker。

I'll now cover IP&I on slide 38. IP&I enables us to deliver a truly differentiated experience, with 10 million customers, of which only roughly 2 million have a banking relationship with the group, there is significant opportunity for driving deeper relationships through an integrated bancassurance model.

我現在將在第 38 張投影片上介紹 IP&I。IP&I 讓我們能夠提供真正差異化的體驗，我們擁有 1000 萬客戶，其中只有大約 200 萬客戶與集團有銀行業務關係，透過綜合銀保模式，有很大機會建立更深的關係。

As I mentioned earlier, we're driving increased engagement with this customer base and plan to scale the Scottish Widows app from 400,000 customers today to more than 1.5 million by the end of 2026. At the same time, we're embedding IP&I products and experiences into the retail banking app, including investment solutions. This is an important lever for increasing penetration of our banking customers.

正如我之前提到的，我們正在加強與該客戶群的互動，並計劃在 2026 年底將 Scottish Widows 應用程式的客戶數量從目前的 40 萬擴展到 150 多萬。同時，我們將 IP&I 產品和體驗嵌入到零售銀行應用程式中，包括投資解決方案。這是增加我們銀行客戶滲透率的重要槓桿。

Finally, in workplace pensions, we'll continue to build profitable scale supported by increased connectivity with the rest of the group, particularly our CIB clients. Our repositioning of the IP&I business will ensure that it continues to be a sustainable source of earnings and dividends for the group.

最後，在工作場所退休金方面，我們將透過加強與集團其他成員（特別是我們的 CIB 客戶）的聯繫，繼續擴大獲利規模。我們對IP&I業務的重新定位將確保其繼續成為集團可持續的收入和股息來源。

Turning now to Commercial Banking and firstly, our BCB business on slide 39. BCB is a highly profitable business, and we're well established in this area, with trusted long standing relationships with businesses that make a significant contribution to the UK economy.

現在轉向商業銀行，首先是第 39 張投影片上的 BCB 業務。BCB 是一家利潤豐厚的企業，我們在這個領域根基深厚，與對英國經濟有重大貢獻的企業建立了長期可靠的合作關係。

We're building the best digitally led relationship bank bringing together the expertise and knowledge of our team of our dedicated relationship managers with compelling mobile-first experiences. Building upon our deposit franchise, we see opportunities to diversify across both products and sectors.

我們正在建立最好的數位化關係銀行，將我們專門的關係經理團隊的專業知識和知識與引人注目的行動優先體驗結合在一起。在我們的存款特許經營基礎上，我們看到了跨產品和跨行業多元化的機會。

We're targeting groups and sectors such as manufacturing that have a broader range of needs beyond lending, and therefore, tend to have higher product holdings. We've got headroom here in product areas that support capital light returns accretive growth.

我們的目標群體和產業是製造業，因為他們除了貸款之外還有更廣泛的需求，因此往往擁有更高的產品持有量。我們在支持輕資本回報增值成長的產品領域還有很大的發展空間。

Our focus on digitization is front to back, having made strong progress on digital origination in the first phase, we're now focused on digitizing key servicing journeys, improving experience and driving efficiencies for the group. More broadly, we believe the capabilities we've built thus far position us well to capitalize on an improving outlook for businesses and are already seeing green shoots across priority lending areas to evidence this.

我們對數位化的關注是從前端到後端，在第一階段的數位化起源方面取得了重大進展之後，我們現在專注於數位化關鍵服務旅程，改善體驗並提高集團效率。更廣泛地說，我們相信，我們迄今所建立的能力使我們能夠充分利用企業不斷改善的前景，並且已在優先貸款領域看到復甦跡象，這便是證據。

I'll now move to CIB on slide 40. CIB is an exciting growth area and one where we've made great strides in the first phase. The business has built upon leading positions in core areas such as UK infrastructure and project finance and selling DCM. Underpinning this is a simple business model with disciplined participation across cash, debt and risk management.

我現在將轉到第 40 張投影片上的 CIB。CIB 是一個令人興奮的成長領域，我們在第一階段取得了長足的進步。該業務在英國基礎設施和專案融資以及銷售 DCM 等核心領域建立了領先地位。支撐這一目標的是一種簡單的商業模式，其中包括對現金、債務和風險管理的嚴格參與。

We've made great progress on becoming a broader solutions provider, meeting more transaction banking and market needs. The latter has been an important source of revenue diversification and will continue to be so as we seek to grow CIB OOI by circa 45% over the five year period.

我們在成為更廣泛的解決方案提供者、滿足更多交易銀行和市場需求方面取得了巨大進展。後者一直是收入多樣化的重要來源，並將繼續如此，因為我們尋求在五年內將 CIB OOI 增長約 45％。

Over the next two years, we will solidify our position as well as growing selectively in Europe and the US, supporting UK linked clients. A continued focus on capital efficiency ensures disciplined growth. We've improved our income per average RWA by more than 150 basis points over the last three years, targeting a further meaningful increase by 2026.

在接下來的兩年裡，我們將鞏固我們的地位，並有選擇地在歐洲和美國發展，為英國相關客戶提供支援。持續關注資本效率確保規範的成長。過去三年來，我們的平均 RWA 收入提高了 150 個基點以上，目標是到 2026 年實現進一步的顯著增長。

Turning now to slide 41, where I'll briefly cover the technology step change we are driving. Our technology strategy over the next two years will have two distinct elements; ongoing modernization and rationalization of our estate will continue to deliver savings and improve efficiency, providing the capacity for investment in new technologies.

現在翻到第 41 張投影片，我將簡要介紹我們正在推動的技術變革。我們未來兩年的技術策略將有兩個不同的要素；我們正在進行的房地產現代化和合理化改造將繼續帶來節省和提高效率，並提供對新技術的投資能力。

With regard to the latter, we're well positioned as an AI leader, with 800 AI models live today supporting our colleagues and customers, whilst we continue to attract key hires at all levels. Having established the necessary capabilities, we've already launched a significant number of GenAI, AI use cases across the group, including rolling out a knowledge management tool to more than 10,000 of our frontline colleagues to help them better support customers.

就後者而言，我們在人工智慧方面處於領先地位，目前有 800 個人工智慧模型為我們的同事和客戶提供支持，同時我們繼續吸引各個層級的關鍵員工。在建立了必要的能力後，我們已經在整個集團推出了大量 GenAI、AI 用例，包括向 10,000 多名一線同事推出知識管理工具，以幫助他們更好地支援客戶。

We see opportunities to scale and extend these use cases over the next few years, improving speed to market, lowering cost to serve, and delivering more personalized experiences. While some of these use cases will extend beyond the current plan period, these investments are critical to driving structural advantage that will support long term financial benefits, and reinforce the group's technology leadership position into the future.

我們看到了未來幾年擴大和擴展這些用例的機會，提高了產品上市速度，降低了服務成本，並提供更個人化的體驗。雖然其中一些用例將超出當前計劃期，但這些投資對於推動支持長期財務利益的結構性優勢以及鞏固集團未來的技術領導至關重要。

Let me turn now to the financials in 2026, starting with slide 42. The acceleration in our strategic transformation over the next two years will further enhance our franchise and financial performance. Building upon the improvements in financial performance in the first phase, we see further upside over the final two years.

現在讓我來看看 2026 年的財務狀況，從第 42 張投影片開始。未來兩年我們策略轉型的加速將進一步提升我們的特許經營和財務表現。在第一階段財務表現改善的基礎上，我們預計最後兩年將有進一步的上升空間。

This is supported by growing revenue momentum and the continued commitment to cost savings, along with reduced headwinds relative to those in the first phase. This will support increasing levels of capital generation with a reducing number of claims.

這是由不斷增長的收入動能和對成本節約的持續承諾以及相對於第一階段的阻力減少所支持的。這將有助於在減少索賠數量的同時提高資本創造水準。

To bring this to life, let me elaborate on our revenue outlook on slide 43. We're entering this next phase with a net income position of circa GBP17 billion in 2024, having increased this by almost GBP2 billion over the preceding three years. Headwinds to our revenue growth will persist over the next two years to some degree, making me the ongoing but easing mortgage headwind and the timing and impact of base rate cuts.

為了說明這一點，讓我在第 43 張投影片上詳細說明我們的收入前景。我們將進入下一階段，到 2024 年，淨收入將達到約 170 億英鎊，而在過去三年中，這一數字已增加了近 20 億英鎊。未來兩年，我們營收成長面臨的阻力將在一定程度上持續，這使我感受到持續但緩解的抵押貸款阻力以及基準利率下調的時機和影響。

However, as we see it today, we expect the headwinds to be smaller than they were in the years to 2024. As we've guided for some time, we continue to expect year-on-year progression in our structural hedge earnings across both 2025 and '26.

然而，正如我們今天所看到的那樣，我們預計阻力將比 2024 年前更小。正如我們一段時間以來的預期，我們仍然預期 2025 年和 2026 年結構性對沖收益將逐年成長。

We are today quantifying this impact with a combined uplift of around GBP2.7 billion. Importantly, we expect the hedge tailwind to be materially larger than the headwinds in the second phase. Added to this, we expect to see further growth across our strategic initiatives and BAU activities.

今天，我們量化了這項影響，總計增幅約 27 億英鎊。重要的是，我們預期第二階段的對沖順風將遠大於逆風。除此之外，我們預計我們的策略計劃和 BAU 活動將進一步成長。

On strategic initiatives, based on our performance in the first three years, we are upgrading our guidance to greater than GBP1.5 billion of additional revenues. Taking these factors together, we're confident in the outlook for net income growth.

在策略性舉措方面，基於我們前三年的業績，我們將額外收入預期上調至超過 15 億英鎊。綜合這些因素，我們對淨收入成長的前景充滿信心。

Let me now close with the full suite of 2026 guidance on slide 44. The group is on a clear path to delivering an enhanced financial performance in 2026. As I've just mentioned, we see strong revenue upside in the second phase, including further OOI growth.

現在，讓我以第 44 張投影片上的全套 2026 年指導方針作為結束。該集團預計在 2026 年實現更好的財務業績。正如我剛才提到的，我們看到第二階段的收入將有強勁成長，包括 OOI 的進一步成長。

Alongside, we'll retain our clear focus on cost and capital efficiency, delivering additional savings and RWA optimization. This will support a cost-income ratio of below 50%, and we remain committed to managing to a 13% CET1 ratio by 2026. The significant operating leverage we are generating in the second phase will support higher, more sustainable returns and capital generation.

同時，我們將繼續明確關注成本和資本效率，實現額外的節約和 RWA 優化。這將支持成本收入比低於 50%，我們仍致力於在 2026 年將 CET1 比率控制在 13%。我們在第二階段產生的巨大經營槓桿將支持更高、更永續的回報和資本創造。

For 2026, this represents a return on tangible equity of greater than 15%, and greater than 200 basis points of capital generation. We found this to be a useful update on our progress to date and future plans. To summarize, I'm very pleased with the strong progress so far, and I'm excited about the opportunities to accelerate our transformation as we deliver a highly compelling investment case for shareholders.

對於 2026 年而言，這意味著有形資產回報率將超過 15%，資本創造能力將超過 200 個基點。我們發現這對我們迄今為止的進展和未來計劃來說是一個有用的更新。總而言之，我對迄今為止的強勁進展感到非常高興，並且我對我們為股東提供極具吸引力的投資案例的同時加速我們轉型的機會感到興奮。

Thank you for listening. I'll now hand over to Douglas, who will manage the Q&A. Douglas?

感謝您的聆聽。現在我將問題交給道格拉斯，他將負責主持問答環節。道格拉斯？

Thank you, Charlie. (Event Instructions) So why don't we start? How should we start with Andrew?

謝謝你，查理。（活動說明）那我們為什麼不開始呢？我們該如何從安德魯開始呢？

Thank you very much for the presentation. I have a number of questions, but I will try and limit myself to two. Let's do one numbers question and one broader strategic question. On the numbers question, firstly, a big thank you for the guidance on the structural hedge, but would love a bit more substance and the building blocks behind it.

非常感謝您的演講。我有許多問題，但我盡量只問兩個。讓我們做一個數字問題和一個更廣泛的戰略問題。關於數字問題，首先，非常感謝您對結構性對沖的指導，但希望了解更多實質內容和背後的基礎。

So if you could possibly give us your thoughts on the trajectory of the nominal, how much you expect to mature in '25 and in '26? And then if there is anything you can say on what you've assumed both on maturing yields and reinvestment yields as well, that would be incredibly helpful.

那麼，如果您可以告訴我們您對名目匯率走勢的看法，您預期 25 年和 26 年名目匯率將成熟到什麼程度？如果您能就到期收益率和再投資收益率的假設發表一些看法，那將會非常有幫助。

And then the second question on the strategic initiatives. You're obviously very proud of what you've achieved. You have GBP100 million ahead of where you expected to be at this stage. You've increased it to greater than 1.5 cumulative.

第二個問題是關於策略性舉措。您顯然對自己所取得的成就感到非常自豪。您目前所預期的還超出了 1 億英鎊。您已將其累計增加到 1.5 以上。

I think previously when you gave this guidance at the end of 2021, you had that 50%, 50% in NII slip, but it was always expected that a lot of the ROI based benefits will come through in the latter couple of years because of some of the initiatives they were more focused on OOI were coming through then.

我認為之前當您在 2021 年底給出這一指導時，NII 下滑了 50%，但人們一直預計，許多基於 ROI 的收益將在後幾年實現，因為當時他們更關注 OOI 的一些舉措正在實施。

So perhaps you can just elaborate on the greater than 0.7 that's now expected to come through over the next two years, how much of that is NII versus how much of those non-NII? And which initiatives you particularly thinking are going to drive that?

因此，您能否詳細說明一下目前預計未來兩年內將實現的 0.7 以上的數字，其中有多少是 NII，又有多少是非 NII？您認為哪些措施特別能夠推動此目標的實現？

Do you want to take the first one? I'll take the second.

您想拿第一個嗎？我要第二個。

Thanks, Charlie. Thanks, Andrew, for the question. I'm glad you're pleased to see the additional disclosure around the structural hedge. The structural hedge, as I said in my comments earlier on, is a significant and accelerating tailwind to the income profile of the group.

謝謝，查理。謝謝安德魯提問。我很高興您樂意看到有關結構性對沖的額外披露。正如我之前的評論中所說，結構性對沖對於集團的收入狀況來說是一個重要且加速的推動力。

What are we seeing within that over the course of 2024. We held the notional, as you know, at GBP242 billion. That represented a reduction in balances of about GBP5 billion in the first half, but then because of the deposit performance of the business and ability to keep the notional stable during the second half.

在 2024 年期間我們將會看到什麼？如您所知，我們的名義持有量為 2420 億英鎊。這意味著上半年餘額減少了約 50 億英鎊，但由於下半年業務的存款表現和保持名義穩定的能力。

You asked about yields and how we get to '25 and '26. The yield in 2024 Q4 was 1.9%. And you can tell from that, that it's significantly below the refinancing yield of the business. So what do we look at when we go forward on the yield point, first of all. We've obviously got a big jump in terms of maturing yield versus refinancing yield.

您詢問了收益率以及我們如何達到 25 和 26 年。2024年第四季收益率為1.9%。由此可以看出，它明顯低於該企業的再融資收益率。那麼，當我們繼續討論屈服點時，我們首先要考慮什麼？相對於再融資收益率，我們的到期收益率顯然有了很大的提高。

There's two points to make there that are sometimes missed. One is what are we refinancing at? We've got rates of about 4% versus the 1.9% yield that we're running right now. That's one. The second factor is that the yield on the existing derivatives that are maturing is somewhat uneven in their profile. And so you're going to get growth of the type that we suggested there, both off the back of rates as they are today, but also off the back of the yield that is in the maturing derivatives.

有兩點有時會被忽略。一是我們要以什麼價格再融資？我們的利率約為 4%，而目前的收益率為 1.9%。那是一個。第二個因素是，現有到期衍生性商品的收益率狀況有些不均衡。因此，您將獲得我們所建議的成長類型，既得益於當前的利率，也得益於到期衍生性商品的收益率。

Third point, growth in the notional. We are not really expecting any material growth in the notional for 2025, and we're expecting very modest growth in the notional for 2026. Now based upon the deposit performance that we've seen to date, including the GBP11.3 billion up that we saw in 2024, I'd be quite surprised if we don't beat that actually.

第三點，名義的成長。我們實際上並不期望 2025 年名目金額會有任何實質增長，而且我們預計 2026 年名目金額將出現非常溫和的增長。現在，根據我們迄今為止看到的存款表現，包括我們在 2024 年看到的 113 億英鎊的增長，如果我們實際上沒有超越這個數字，我會感到非常驚訝。

But purposes of our forecast, the notional expansion in '25 is really very limited, and the notional expansion in '26 is also limited, albeit not quite as much as '25. Further question, how much of that has got, have we got locked in? How do we feel about it today?

但就我們的預測而言，25 年的名義擴張實際上非常有限，26 年的名義擴張同樣有限，儘管不如 25 年那麼多。進一步的問題是，我們鎖定了多少？我們今天對此有何感受？

Essentially, although we are somewhat active at the margins in terms of managing the structural hedge to make sure that we don't invest in flat yield curve environments. Nonetheless, the hedge by and large, is more like a caterpillar than anything else.

本質上，儘管我們在管理結構性對沖方面有些積極，以確保我們不會在平坦的殖利率曲線環境中進行投資。儘管如此，整體而言，樹籬看起來更像一條毛毛蟲。

And so the types of the lock-in that we have more or less reflects that pattern off the back of a 3.5 year weighted average life hedge. What does that mean in very literal terms? What it means is that we've got about 90% of our hedge expectation this year locked in.

因此，我們所擁有的鎖定類型或多或少反映了 3.5 年加權平均壽命對沖的模式。從字面上來說，這是什麼意思？這意味著我們今年的對沖預期已經鎖定了大約90%。

We've got out 75% of the 2026 hedge expectations locked in. So when we talk about the GBP4.2 billion in '24, expanding by GBP1.2 billion in '25, we're pretty certain that's going to happen because it's already on the books. When we talk about it then expanding a further GBP1.5 billion in '26 getting to a total of GBP6.9 billion, we're pretty sure that's going to happen because most of it, three quarters of it is on the books.

我們已經鎖定了 75% 的 2026 年對沖預期。因此，當我們談論24年的42億英鎊，25年增加12億英鎊時，我們非常確定這將會發生，因為它已經記在帳上了。當我們談論到 26 年再擴大 15 億英鎊，達到總計 69 億英鎊時，我們非常確定這將會發生，因為其中大部分，即四分之三已經記入帳目。

So hopefully, that gives you an idea that we're not relying upon any heroic assumptions at all in respect of the hedge progress from here, it's really pretty much mechanical as I've described it before.

所以希望，這能讓你明白，我們根本不依賴任何關於從現在開始的對沖進展的英勇假設，它實際上非常機械，就像我之前描述的那樣。

Great. And then on NII, yes, we haven't been 100% transparent on '24 on the split of the GBP800 million. We're in fact original GBP700 million. We never gave a split, but we did give the split of 50%, 50% as you said, on the GBP1.5 billion, and we think that's still good.

偉大的。然後關於 NII，是的，我們在 24 年對 8 億英鎊的分割還沒有 100% 透明。我們原來的資金實際上是 7 億英鎊。我們從未進行過分割，但正如您所說，我們確實對 15 億英鎊進行了 50% 的分割，我們認為這仍然很好。

I think the more strategic answer because what we defined as strategic initiatives versus BAU growth was always a very specific answer. If you look at that chart that William look through, which shows you NII progression over the last three years, it's grown GBP1 billion in revenue with a CAGR consistently growing quarter-on-quarter with the seasonality of Q4 always being weaker.

我認為更具策略性的答案是，因為我們定義的策略舉措與 BAU 成長始終是一個非常具體的答案。如果你看一下威廉瀏覽的圖表，它向你展示了過去三年的 NII 進展情況，它的收入增長了 10 億英鎊，複合年增長率持續逐季增長，而第四季度的季節性始終較弱。

And it's been pretty consistent across the four divisions that are running that. So retail, IP&I, BCB and then, of course, our equity investments group at the center that has two businesses in there that support it.

負責此項工作的四個部門一直保持著相當一致的狀態。因此，零售、IP&I、BCB，當然還有我們位於中心的股權投資集團，其中有兩項業務為其提供支援。

So the real shareholder value story is around GBP1 billion of growth that at 11% CAGR, if you exclude equity investments, but 9% CAGR on that business. And our expectation is a chunk of that is coming on strategic initiatives.

因此，真正的股東價值故事是成長約 10 億英鎊，複合年增長率為 11%（如果不包括股權投資），但該業務的複合年增長率為 9%。我們預計其中很大一部分將來自策略性舉措。

For example, the growth in the transport business, the growth in credit card payments, growth in working capital in BCB. And then some of it's been more linked to us bringing in new talent, new focus and then a new operating model around existing businesses.

例如，運輸業務的成長、信用卡支付的成長、BCB 營運資本的成長。其中有些與我們引進新的人才、新的重點以及圍繞現有業務的新營運模式更為相關。

And I think William and I highlighted it IP&I and BCP as examples, sorry, CIB as examples where we had existing initiatives, but we brought in new talent. We didn't tag that as strategic initiatives, but it's obviously a really important part of getting the economics and the trajectory around NII growing.

我認為 William 和我強調了 IP&I 和 BCP 作為例子，抱歉，CIB 是例子，我們有現有舉措，但我們引進了新的人才。我們沒有將其標記為戰略舉措，但顯然它是推動經濟和國家資訊基礎設施成長軌蹟的重要組成部分。

So we're very comfortable with the kind of longer term outlook. And I think from our perspective, this is a really strategic part of our commitment in this strategic phase. It's we know NII has expanded through this period, but really getting those OOI businesses growing faster, linked to strategic competitive advantage and seeing that trajectory and the momentum we think, is a really important part of what we're going to deliver in the next two years and what we've already delivered in the last three.

因此，我們對這種長期前景感到非常滿意。我認為從我們的角度來看，這是我們在這一戰略階段的承諾中真正具有戰略意義的一部分。我們知道 NII 在這段時期內已經擴張，但真正讓那些 OOI 業務更快地成長，與策略競爭優勢聯繫起來，並看到我們認為的軌跡和勢頭，是我們在未來兩年內要實現的目標以及過去三年已經實現的目標的重要組成部分。

Thank you. Excellent.

謝謝。出色的。

Ben, why don't you take the next question.

本，為什麼不回答下一個問題呢？

Thank you for my questions. Ben Toms from RBC. The first one is on your tangible value per share growth. You talked about in the presentation that you expect material growth in that balance. And it will be one of the underpins of analysts RoTE expectations.

感謝您的提問。來自 RBC 的 Ben Toms。第一個是關於每股有形價值的成長。您在演講中談到，您預計這種平衡將實現物質成長。這將成為分析師 RoTE 預期的基礎之一。

Can you just give us an idea of how fast you expect the cash flow hedge reserve unwind. I think we look at consensus, it has growth of 6% in tangible value per share growth for next year. Is that what you envisage when you say material?

您能否告訴我們，您預期現金流對沖儲備解除的速度有多快？我認為，我們一致認為，明年每股有形價值將成長 6%。這就是您所說的材料所設想的嗎？

And then secondly, on motor finance, I think you probably said all you're going to say in terms of the assumptions, but I'm just interested in terms of timing. We have the court case at the beginning of April. Everything we've seen so far means that expedited and means expedited. Do you think we could get an outcome by the time we get to our half year results. Thank you.

其次，關於汽車金融，我想您可能已經說出了所有要說的假設，但我只是對時間感興趣。四月初我們將開庭審理此案。到目前為止我們所看到的一切都意味著加速，這意味著加速。您認為我們在獲得半年業績時能夠得到結果嗎？謝謝。

Can I take the second one?

我可以拿第二個嗎？

Sure. Yeah, thanks. Thanks Charlie. Thanks for those questions, Ben. Both important questions. In respect to TNAV, as you know, we ended up the year at 52.4p per share. That was in part driven by rates development actually, and was probably a little shy of what we might have expected if you had asked us this time last year.

當然。是的，謝謝。謝謝查理。謝謝你提出這些問題，本。這兩個問題都很重要。就 TNAV 而言，如您所知，我們今年的收盤價為每股 52.4 便士。這實際上在一定程度上是由利率發展推動的，如果您去年這個時候問我們的話，這可能比我們預期的要低一些。

But nonetheless, based upon the rate expectations that we have, based upon the progress of the business expectations that we have, we do expect as your comment alluded to, and as I said in my script, TNAV per share to grow materially over the course of this year.

但儘管如此，根據我們對利率的預期，根據我們對業務進展的預期，我們確實預計，正如您在評論中提到的，以及我在腳本中所說的，每股 TNAV 將在今年大幅增長。

Your question is, what does it materially mean? I'm not going to comment directly on consensus. Safe to say that I think it looks more like double digits than I see in consensus right now. Why is that? I think a couple of points.

你的問題是，它實質上意味著什麼？我不會直接對共識發表評論。可以肯定地說，我認為它看起來比我現在共識的更接近兩位數。這是為什麼？我認為有幾點。

One is we see the rates evolution. That, if you like, unwinds the cash flow hedge reserve number one, but you've also got the maturity of derivatives on the cash flow hedge reserve as well as that. And so you've got those two factors like aiding the reduction in the cash flow hedge reserve over the course of the year.

一是我們看到了利率的演變。如果您願意，可以解除第一現金流對沖儲備，但同時您也可以獲得現金流對沖儲備衍生性商品的到期日。所以你有這兩個因素，例如幫助在一年內減少現金流對沖儲備。

Combined with that, and maybe as important, the business build, and the business build will obviously build in RWAs and therefore have associated with that in the context of capital to the TNAV per share. You've then got the pension build.

除此之外，也許同樣重要的是，業務建設，業務建設顯然會在 RWA 中建立，因此在資本背景下與每股 TNAV 相關聯。這樣你就得到了退休金。

I wouldn't rely upon that too much, but it should be a factor in building TNAV per share over the course of the year. And then finally, of course, the buyback. The buyback is a significant tailwind over course of the year, clearly depends on our share price.

我不會太依賴這一點，但它應該是全年每股 TNAV 建造的因素。最後，當然是回購。回購是今年的一個重要的順風，顯然取決於我們的股價。

So in our respect, at least less the tailwind the better. And of course, you'd expect me to say that. But nonetheless, you're going to get some driving benefit, if you like, from that component. So again, when I look at TNAV, the growth is expected to be material. I'm not going to put a number on it, but I would expect it to be sort of double digits and I see sometimes comment.

因此從我們的角度來看，至少順風越少越好。當然，你會期待我會這麼說。但儘管如此，如果您願意的話，您將從該組件獲得一些駕駛優勢。因此，當我再次查看 TNAV 時，預計增長將是實質性的。我不會給出一個數字，但我希望它是兩位數，而且我有時會看到評論。

Great. And then on the second question, as we've discussed, well, first of all, thank you for your carefully asked question. We'll see how far we spend on this much time we spend on this topic. But obviously, we welcome Supreme Court having an accelerated timeline. As you know, they're going to hear the court cases in the first week of April.

偉大的。然後關於第二個問題，正如我們所討論的，首先，感謝您仔細提出的問題。我們將看看我們在這個主題上花了多少時間。但顯然，我們歡迎最高法院加快時間表。如您所知，他們將在四月第一週審理這些案件。

We don't exactly know when they would come out, an accelerated timeline for them would be kind of three months. And so it might be at the start of the summer, it might be in time for the results. A more normal time line would be longer than that.

我們並不確切知道它們什麼時候會發布，加速的時間表大概是三個月。因此，它可能會在夏季開始的時候出現，也可能會在結果公佈的時候出現。更正常的時間表應該比這更長。

So we're not sure exactly when we'll hear from the Supreme Court. Of course, the next step once we've got that clarity is then to see how the FCA then intervened. William talked about the uncertainties, but that's a really important part of this. And obviously, our role where we are doing it appropriately is supporting the appellants around that Supreme Court case.

所以我們不確定何時能聽到最高法院的判決。當然，一旦我們弄清楚了這一點，下一步就是看看 FCA 如何介入。威廉談到了不確定性，但這是其中非常重要的一部分。顯然，我們的職責就是為最高法院案件的上訴人提供支持，這也是我們所做的適當的事情。

Guy?

蓋伊？

Morning, thank you very much for the update today. The first question was around costs, and thanks for the 2025 guide, around GBP100 million higher than consensus. If we look 2026, consensus has you falling short of the cost income guidance.

早安，非常感謝您今天的更新。第一個問題是關於成本，感謝 2025 年的指南，比普遍共識高出約 1 億英鎊。如果我們展望 2026 年，普遍共識是您將無法達到成本收入指引。

So I'm just wondering whether we shouldn't be rolling forward that sort of uplift from 2025 and perhaps be thinking about sort of flattish OpEx versus that GBP9.7 billion guide? Or is it just simple fact that you're much more positive on the top line when thinning about cost to income?

所以我只是想知道我們是否不應該從 2025 年開始推進這種提升，也許應該考慮與 97 億英鎊的指導價格相比持平的營運支出？或者這只是一個簡單的事實，當你考慮成本收入比時，你對營業收入更樂觀？

And then the second question was on deposits. A really strong quarter for deposit flows, particularly retail savings. You note the noise around the budget, but even so it looks like some encouraging underlying trends.

第二個問題是關於存款。本季存款流量、特別是零售儲蓄非常強勁。你注意到了圍繞預算的喧囂，但即便如此，它看起來也有一些令人鼓舞的潛在趨勢。

Can you just give a bit more flavor the color you've seen perhaps what you saw post the budget later in the period, things around deposit mix and then how you're thinking about that into 2025, given some of more comments around the structural hedge notional certainly sounds encouraging. Thank you.

您能否更詳細地介紹一下您所看到的情況，例如您在本期預算後期看到的情況，以及有關存款組合的情況，以及您對 2025 年的看法，考慮到有關結構性對沖名義價值的一些評論聽起來確實令人鼓舞。謝謝。

Sure, yeah, I'll take that Charlie. Great. Guy, you started off asking about costs, but then you ended up that same question talking about cost to income. So I'm going to pick up where you left off as it were. When we look at cost income, it is, of course, a function of both of those -- both sides of the equation.

當然，是的，我會接受這個，查理。偉大的。蓋伊，你一開始問的是成本，但最後你又問了同樣的問題，談論的是成本收入。因此我將從你上次中斷的地方繼續講下去。當我們考慮成本收入時，它當然是等式兩邊的函數。

So what do we expect to see in income over the course of the year? We've been pretty explicit in terms of the net interest income expectations, GBP13.5 billion, up about GBP700 million. That is composed of a very number of headwinds and tailwinds. I shouldn't get into this right now, but I'm sure we will over the course of the Q&A.

那我們預計今年的收入會是多少呢？我們對淨利息收入的預期已經非常明確，為135億英鎊，增加約7億英鎊。它是由大量逆風和順風組成的。我現在不應該談論這個，但我相信我們會在問答過程中談論這個。

That is likely to be supplemented by decent OOI growth. We were up 9% OOI year-on-year. Quarter four was actually up 11% year-on-year. I would expect that OOI growth to continue in a similar vein to what we've seen in '24 in '25. Indeed, I would expect that OOI growth to continue over the course of '26, again in a similar sort of way.

這可能會因 OOI 的良好成長而得到補充。我們的OOI同比增長了9％。第四季度實際上同比增長了 11%。我預計 OOI 成長將繼續保持與我們在 2024 年和 2025 年看到的類似的水平。事實上，我預計 OOI 成長將在 26 年繼續，並且方式類似。

At the same time, within the income line, you've seen operated depreciation normalizing over the last year or two, but that is now more or less normalized. So as a result, that, which has been a headwind in the past, there's no longer really a headwind going to the income equation going forward.

同時，在收入線內，您已經看到經營折舊在過去一兩年內趨於正常化，但現在或多或少已經正常化。因此，過去的阻力不再會對未來的收入產生影響。

Having said all of that, where are these -- so what are the sources of this growth? We talked about BAU and we've talked about strategic initiatives. And Charlie in his comments mentioned that strategic initiatives are now expected to exceed GBP1.5 billion. So you've got a combination of customer activity, but that is then broadened and deepened by the strategic initiative investments that we are making, which in turn builds our income picture I just described.

說了這麼多，這些在哪裡──那麼這種成長的來源是什麼呢？我們討論了 BAU 並且討論了戰略舉措。而查理在評論中提到，現在的策略舉措預計將超過15億英鎊。因此，您獲得了多種客戶活動，但是，我們正在進行的策略計畫投資會擴大和深化這些活動，從而建立我剛才描述的收入狀況。

Now moving on to the cost side of that equation. We put forward a number of GBP9.7 billion for 2025. If you strip out the [NIC] contributions, that's up about 2%. It's obviously up more than we would like, but frankly, it's a lot lower than inflation at the same time.

現在來討論這個等式的成本面。我們為2025年提出的數字是97億英鎊。如果去掉 [NIC] 的貢獻，這個數字將會上升約 2%。顯然，這一增幅超出了我們的預期，但坦白說，這一增幅比同期通貨膨脹率要低得多。

So just to give some color in terms of what is going into that and then project it forward into 2026, there's a number of things. First of all, the cost savings, the GBP1.2 billion of cost savings that we've achieved to date, those roll forward and indeed, they grow going forward.

因此，為了說明其中的具體內容並將其預測到 2026 年，有許多事情要做。首先，成本節約，我們迄今為止已經實現了 12 億英鎊的成本節約，這些成本將會持續下去，而且事實上，它們會繼續增長。

So that's obviously a very helpful tailwind for one of a better word to the cost equation. Against that, you've got inflation. You know what the inflation picture is like. We're seeing it for sure. And then we've got OpEx in the context of both BAU and in the context of strategic initiatives. As we build the business, as we see more volumes, inevitably OpEx comes through our P&L as a result.

因此，這顯然是一個非常有用的順風，可以為成本方程式提供更好的單字。與此相反，卻出現了通貨膨脹。你知道通貨膨脹的狀況是什麼樣的。我們確實看到了它。然後我們在 BAU 和戰略計劃的背景下獲得了 OpEx。隨著我們業務的發展，業務量不斷增大，營運支出不可避免地會出現在我們的損益表中。

And then finally, we've got investment, and we've got ongoing investment, as I commented in my remarks earlier on. But a component part of that investment is severance costs. Severance costs for '25 are going to be up some 25%-odd -- 25% to 30% in '25 versus '24. So the overall investment that we are making continues. Severance is an important component of that. What does that do?

最後，我們得到了投資，並且得到了持續的投資，正如我之前的評論中所說。但該項投資的一個組成部分是遣散費。2025 年的遣散費將上漲約 25% 左右，與 2024 年相比將上漲 25% 至 30%。因此，我們整體的投資仍會持續下去。遣散費是其中一個重要組成部分。那有什麼作用？

It gives us confidence in two things. One is it gives us confidence in the revenue growth going back to my earlier comments. But it also gives us confidence in stability of costs going forward, and therefore, the operating leverage coming out of that.

它使我們對兩件事充滿信心。一是它讓我們對收入成長充滿信心，就像我之前所說的。但這也讓我們對未來成本的穩定性充滿信心，進而產生經營槓桿。

And it's that combination that when we get to 2026, allows us to have confidence in the continued revenue growth, not least boosted by the net interest income development above and beyond what we've seen in '25, continuation of OOI, but also gives us confidence in flattening, not necessarily flat but flattening costs. And it's that combination that gives us, as I said, confidence in the sub 50% cost income ratio.

正是這種結合，讓我們對 2026 年的收入持續增長充滿信心，這不僅得益於超出我們在 25 年所見的淨利息收入發展的推動，也讓我們對收入趨於平穩充滿信心，不一定是平穩，而是成本趨於平穩。正如我所說，正是這種結合讓我們對低於 50% 的成本收入比充滿信心。

Second question on deposits.

第二個問題關於存款。

Shall I kick off on that? Sorry. Yes, deposits, Guy. A couple of comments to make there. As you say, GBP11.3 billion deposit growth during the quarter '24, which is a great achievement. In Q4, not least within that, up GBP7 billion over the course of the quarter.

我該開始做這個嗎？對不起。是的，存款，蓋伊。我要提出幾點評論。正如您所說，2024 年季度存款增長了 113 億英鎊，這是一項偉大的成就。在第四季度，尤其如此，整個季度增加了 70 億英鎊。

Looking forward, we expect a couple of things to happen within the deposits picture. First of all, we think there's going to be a decent rate of market growth within the deposits and deposit market forgive me. That's clearly going to be applicable to everybody in the market. And it's a bit of a tailwind, I suppose, to the market as a whole.

展望未來，我們預計存款領域將發生一些事情。首先，我們認為存款和存款市場將有一個不錯的市場成長率。這顯然適用於市場上的每個人。我想，這對整個市場來說是一個推動力。

It's not all good because some of that is coming from slightly subdued spending patterns in the economy. So a lot of it is good off the back of things like wage settlements, things like general credits and the like, all of which will be sustained going forward.

情況並非全是好的，因為部分原因是經濟中消費模式略有減弱。因此，很多事情都是透過諸如工資結算、一般信貸等措施實現的，所有這些都將在未來持續下去。

But some of it, as I said, is coming from prudent spending habits within the economy too. And that's helping, and it's helping build a pretty strong deposit market. We saw it in '24. We expect it to continue in '25.

但正如我所說，其中一部分也來自於經濟內部審慎的消費習慣。這很有幫助，有助於建立一個相當強大的存款市場。我們在'24年就見過它。我們預計這種趨勢將在25年持續下去。

But at the same time, if you look at shares within High Street banks, we have been outperforming the High Street banks, and that's a function of the product characteristics that I just mentioned a second ago, limited withdrawal in particular, has been successful in that respect. And that has helped us perform in '24. And we do expect that performance to continue over the course of '25. So we do expect some growth.

但同時，如果你看看高街銀行的股票，我們的表現一直優於高街銀行，這是我剛才提到的產品特性的功能，特別是有限的提款，在這方面是成功的。這對我們在24年的表現有了幫助。我們確實預計這種表現將在25年內持續下去。因此我們確實期待一定會成長。

Now the final point that I'll make here is that actually per my comments on structural hedge a second ago, we are not relying upon that for structural hedge notional growth. We've got really very modest, low -- very low single-digit growth within structural hedge notional in '25.

現在我要說的最後一點是，實際上根據我剛才對結構化對沖的評論，我們並不依賴結構化對沖名義增長。在 25 年，我們的結構性對沖名目金額的成長率確實非常溫和，很低，只有非常低的個位數。

When we look forward in '26, I mean, to put a rough number on it, we are mid-single digits growth within '25 expectations around structural hedge notional. So really, again, pretty modest growth. So we are expecting to see a decent clip in deposits both as a function of markets and as a function of our successful share, but we are not relying on that purpose of our structural hedge expectations.

當我們展望26年時，我的意思是，粗略地估算一下，我們在結構對沖名義金額方面將實現25年預期內的中等個位數增長。所以實際上，這仍然是相當溫和的成長。因此，我們預計存款將出現不錯的成長，這既取決於市場，也取決於我們的成功份額，但我們並不依賴結構性對沖預期的目的。

Let's get to Perlie who makes it easier from a microphone perspective.

讓我們來談談 Perlie，從麥克風的角度來說，它讓一切變得更容易。

Yeah, thank you. It's Perlie Mong from Bank of America. I will not disappoint in your expectation that we might spend a little bit more time on motor finance. So can you talk a little bit more about the methodology for the provisions? Because obviously, when we spoke Q3, you said that there are many variables after the Court of Appeals ruling, so scenario analysis is quite difficult. So thank you for giving us an update anyway.

是的，謝謝。我是來自美國銀行的 Perlie Mong。我們可能會在汽車金融上花更多時間，我不會辜負您的期望。那麼您能否進一步談談這些規定的方法論？因為很明顯，當我們談到問題 3 時，您說上訴法院裁決後有很多變數，因此情境分析相當困難。無論如何，感謝您向我們提供最新消息。

So can I just ask, in your scenario analysis, what of the basket of drivers, which ones were the more material ones, and I appreciate you may not want to comment on it. But how wide was the range of outcomes? So the GBP700 million or GBP1.15 billion in total -- is that -- as a central scenario? Or is it an average of some very wide-ranging outcome in the scenarios? So that's number one.

所以我是否可以問一下，在您的情境分析中，一籃子驅動因素中哪些是更重要的因素，我知道您可能不想對此發表評論。但結果的範圍有多大？那麼 7 億英鎊或總計 11.5 億英鎊 —— 這是 —— 作為中心情景嗎？或者它是場景中一些非常廣泛的結果的平均值？這是第一點。

And I guess the second question is still staying on the theme of regulations. Not sure how you feel about all the talk about making regulation work with growth given the whole motor situation. But I guess what can regulators do to make your lives easier? Is it about mortgage affordability testing around that? Or is it reducing the reporting burden that the FCA talked about.

我想第二個問題仍然圍繞著法規主題。考慮到整個運動狀況，我不確定您對讓監管與增長一起發揮作用的所有討論有何感想。但我想監管機構可以做些什麼來讓你的生活更輕鬆呢？這是關於抵押貸款承受能力測試嗎？或者是減輕FCA所說的報告負擔。

And I guess there's some chatter amount maybe like removing cash as a product and to encourage investments which one of that would be helpful. And what else can regulators do?

我想，有人可能會討論取消現金作為產品以鼓勵投資，這可能會有所幫助。監管機構還能做什麼？

I'll take the second.

我要第二個。

Sure. Yes. Thanks Charlie. Thanks, Perlie. We didn't expect to escape without a motor question. So fair enough. First of all, what triggers the provision within motor. As you know, the provisioning standards require you to take a provision when you have probable impact and you can make a reasonable estimate around that impact.

當然。是的。謝謝查理。謝謝，Perlie。我們沒想到能毫髮無傷地逃脫。所以很公平。首先，是什麼觸發了機動車內部的規定。如您所知，撥備標準要求您在可能產生影響時提列撥備，並且可以對該影響做出合理估計。

When we look at the situation right now, there are lots of uncertainties. What we've done is effectively bucket those up in two, three areas. One is the legal uncertainties. So what will the Supreme Court decide? What is the extent of? What are the obligations around disclosure and so forth.

當我們審視當前情勢時，會發現存在著許多不確定性。我們所做的是有效地將它們分為兩、三個領域。一是法律的不確定性。那麼最高法院將會做出什麼裁決呢？程度是多大？有關揭露等方面的義務是什麼。

Second bucket, what will the FCA response to that be? If indeed, it is determined that it needs to be addressed regime, what will that look like? So will there be a zero or a reasonable commission standard, for example? Will it be proactive or reactive? Will there be a time bar? What will the interest rate apply be? What will the interpretation of the contract length of time be? Will it be behavioral or will it be contractual?

第二個問題，FCA 對此將作何反應？如果確實確定需要解決這個問題，那麼會是什麼樣的呢？那麼，是否會有一個零佣金標準或一個合理的佣金標準呢？它是主動的還是被動的？會有時間限制嗎？適用的利率是多少？合約期限該如何解釋？它是行為性的還是契約性的？

Those types of things would feed into any structured approach to address that the FCA will adopt depending upon what the Supreme Court decides. There's then a third question about what the customer response will be.

這些事情將納入金融行為監理局根據最高法院的裁決所採取的任何結構化解決方法。第三個問題是客戶的反應是什麼。

Third bucket, if you like, about what the customer response will be. How many customers will respond what the uphold rate be and so forth. So you can see, Perlie, that there is -- there are quite a number of uncertainties applied to any one of those three buckets that I've just described.

第三個桶，如果你願意的話，是關於客戶的反應。有多少客戶會回應，維持率是多少等等。因此，Perlie，您可以看到，我剛才描述的三個桶中的任何一個都存在相當多的不確定性。

What we've done is to look at those and to develop a series of scenarios. And then based upon legal advice, we have attached probability weightings to each of those scenarios and come up with our GBP700 million additional provision, GBP1.15 billion in total.

我們所做的就是研究這些問題並制定一系列方案。然後根據法律建議，我們對每種情況都附加了機率權重，並提出了 7 億英鎊的額外準備金，總計 11.5 億英鎊。

I'm not going to answer your question directly in terms of what is the range of those scenarios in terms of the impact. I'm not sure you'd expect it to necessarily, but it is safe to say that we have some scenarios that are above that.

我不會直接回答你的問題：這些情境的影響範圍有多大。我不確定你是否一定會期望如此，但可以肯定地說，我們有一些高於這一水平的場景。

If the Supreme Court were determined that there's a fiduciary duty and so forth, you're going to get outcomes that are slightly above that combined with the FCA address regime that, if you like, dials, all of what I've just said to the more negative outcomes.

如果最高法院認定存在受託責任等，那麼您將獲得略高於這一結果的結果，再加上 FCA 地址制度，如果您願意的話，可以將我剛才所說的所有結果轉向更負面的結果。

But equally, there are scenarios that are significantly below that. And again, they depend upon a Supreme Court determinations of what duties are, but also dialing those dials as it were to more benign scenarios, more benign outcomes.

但同樣，也存在明顯低於這一水平的情況。再次，它們依賴最高法院對職責的裁定，但同時也要將這些裁定轉向更良性的情景和更良性的結果。

So there is a range around that GBP1.15 billion, but we feel very comfortable about it being the best estimate as to where we are today. And then we await and frankly, in many respects, look forward to resolution of some of these uncertainties starting with Supreme Court in the early part of April.

因此，這個數字大約在 11.5 億英鎊左右，但我們非常放心，這是我們目前的最佳估計。然後我們等待，坦白說，在很多方面，期待從四月初最高法院開始解決其中一些不確定因素。

And I think there was a question earlier on about how quickly that would come to pass and we learn about it. It's hard to say, but it's not impossible we'll get news before the half year results. And certainly, from our perspective, the least. Again, we feel very comfortable with where we are. We'd like to get this uncertainty behind us so that we can focus on value creating things for our customers.

我認為之前有人提出過一個問題，關於這個事情多久會實現，以及我們多久才能了解到它。很難說，但在半年結果公佈前得到消息並非不可能。當然，從我們的角度來看，這是最少的。我們再一次對目前的狀況感到非常滿意。我們希望消除這種不確定性，以便我們能夠專注於為客戶創造價值。

Great. And then on regulation, I think about it in three ways. We certainly do think there are things that the government can do to enable the UK to grow faster. And then because of our purpose and who we are, we will grow faster with it.

偉大的。然後關於監管，我從三個方面考慮。我們確實認為政府可以採取一些措施來推動英國更快發展。然後，由於我們的目標和我們的身份，我們將更快地成長。

The first thing is in the broader regulatory context. I think the Chancellor has just revealed there's 130 regulators in the UK across industries and sectors, and she's distributed that list to the cabinet. And when we look at where we're aligned, housing, infrastructure, project finance, transition to net zero, social housing as a specific subset beyond broader homeownership, pensions.

首先是更廣泛的監管背景。我認為財政大臣剛剛透露，英國跨行業和跨領域共有 130 個監管機構，她已將名單分發給內閣。當我們審視我們的一致性時，住房、基礎設施、專案融資、向淨零過渡、社會住宅是除廣泛的房屋所有權、退休金之外的一個特定子集。

Anything they do around their supply side reforms, the broader regulatory agenda, unblocking planning and then driving investment in growth, we will be able to really support drive and then get to get additional growth. So that's the first area.

他們在供給面改革、更廣泛的監管議程、解除規劃阻礙以及推動成長投資方面所做的任何事情，我們都將能夠真正支持推動，並獲得額外的成長。這是第一個領域。

Within finance service, I think there's two ways of looking at it. And we've had good discussion but the starting point is the Mansion House speech that I think the Chancellor made last November, it was really quite a bold agenda, and we really welcome the agenda that she laid out.

在金融服務領域，我認為有兩種看待這個問題的方式。我們進行了很好的討論，但我認為起點是財政大臣去年 11 月在市政廳發表的演講，這確實是一個相當大膽的議程，我們非常歡迎她提出的議程。

But we think about it in two ways. There are specific areas of the economy that we are a leader in typically and that we think the combination of looking at both conduct and prudential regulation could accelerate. So how do you build 1.5 million new homes? How do you think about home equity as an asset that could be leveraged for broader policy and social issues?

但我們從兩個方面來思考這個問題。在經濟的某些特定領域我們通常處於領先地位，我們認為，同時關注行為和審慎監管可以加速這些領域的發展。那麼如何建造150萬套新房呢？您如何看待房屋淨值作為一種資產可以用於更廣泛的政策和社會問題？

That's a huge area that requires unlock. How do you think about scale-up and SME financing and taking appropriate risk, how do we enable pensioners in the UK to take more risk and pivot away maybe from cash into more investments and align that with a growth agenda here and abroad. All of those areas, we think, are need very specific regulatory support with that competitiveness and growth agenda. So that's specific areas.

這是一個需要解鎖的巨大區域。您如何看待擴大規模和中小企業融資以及承擔適當的風險，我們如何使英國的退休金領取者能夠承擔更多風險，並將資金從現金轉向更多投資，並將其與國內外的成長議程相結合。我們認為，所有這些領域都需要非常具體的監管支持，以實現競爭力和成長議程。這些是特定區域。

And then the third area, which will come back and motor will be a good example, is we do still think that a healthy economy needs a healthy financial system. And we think the way the regulation is working here today in the UK isn't as competitive as it should be.

然後是第三個領域，它將再次出現，汽車就是一個很好的例子，我們仍然認為健康的經濟需要健康的金融體系。我們認為，目前英國的監管方式並不像應有的那樣具有競爭力。

Probably the single biggest area is around providing a more predictable forward-looking conduct agenda. We know for our investors and all of you, the kind of thing we're going through on motor finance is unsettling, right?

可能最大的領域是提供更可預測的前瞻性行為議程。我們知道，對於我們的投資者和你們所有人來說，我們在汽車金融方面所經歷的事情是令人不安的，對嗎？

To have had 30 years of regulation and oversight to be unwound by a court of appeal view, which has then created this uncertainty makes the UK financial system and Lloyd's less investable increases our cost of equity and makes us less able to deploy capital to support the economy.

上訴法院的裁決導致英國30年的監管和監督被取消，這導致了這種不確定性，使英國金融體系和勞合社的投資價值降低，增加了我們的股權成本，並使我們更無力部署資本來支持經濟。

And there's similar themes actually around potential regulation. If you look at how the competitiveness and growth objective that the government has given the potential regulator, we think it's a real opportunity given our capital resilience and our position to optimize that secondary objective as well.

事實上，圍繞潛在的監管也存在類似的主題。如果你看看政府為潛在監管機構賦予的競爭力和成長目標，我們認為，鑑於我們的資本彈性和優化次要目標的地位，這是一個真正的機會。

So we're working closely with the government is asking for help and they give them specific ideas in all of those areas. What's great sitting in my role, I think I said it just now, I've never led an organization to have the privileged leading organization where if we deliver on our purpose, we will deliver growth and we'll deliver for our shareholders. And it's just a great place there all of the things that society and this government is looking to change, we're right at the heart of.

因此，我們正在與政府密切合作，尋求幫助，他們也在所有這些領域提出了具體的想法。擔任我的職務最棒的地方在於，我想我剛才就說過了，我從未領導過一個組織擁有如此特權的領導組織，如果我們實現了我們的目標，我們就會實現增長，並為我們的股東帶來回報。這裡真是一個很棒的地方，社會和政府正在尋求改變的一切，我們都處於中心位置。

Thank you, Charlie. Jonathan?

謝謝你，查理。喬納森？

Good morning both. Jonathan Pierce from Jefferies. Can I ask two questions again, please. The first one, I'm just going to come out with this direct question on 2026 income. If I triangulate everything you've just told us cost income, TNAV, RoTE, other income growth, the hedge tailwind, it feels like GBP20 billion is the number. Incentives is down at 19.1%, I think.

兩位早安。傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的喬納森·皮爾斯 (Jonathan Pierce)。我可以再問兩個問題嗎？第一個問題，我要直接問一下關於 2026 年的收入。如果我對您剛剛告訴我們的成本收入、TNAV、RoTE、其他收入成長、對沖順風進行三角測量，感覺這個數字是 200 億英鎊。我認為激勵措施下降了 19.1%。

Is that the way we should be thinking about this? I know you don't probably want to talk specifically about '26 income, but I mean everything seems to be suggested that 20% is the right number. So if you could help us on that, that would be good.

我們應該這樣思考這個問題嗎？我知道您可能不想具體談論 26 年的收入，但我的意思是一切似乎都表明 20% 是正確的數字。所以如果您能在這方面幫助我們，那就太好了。

Second question, thinking into 2027, the structural hedge tailwinds, if you bolt them on to the 2024 number would get you to a yield in '26 of about 2.8%. Even if there's no notional growth, and it sounds like it's going to be a bit.

第二個問題，考慮到 2027 年，如果將結構性對沖順風與 2024 年的數字結合起來，26 年的收益率將達到約 2.8%。即使沒有名義上的成長，聽起來也會有一點。

So that would be suggestive again, that there's actually quite a powerful tailwind still to come in 2027 and maybe 2028. So if you could maybe just help us a little bit as to how this develops beyond 2026. And whether there's further upside, therefore to the return on tangible equity number as we move into '27 and '28? Thanks.

所以這再次表明，2027 年甚至 2028 年實際上仍會出現相當強勁的順風。因此，如果您能幫助我們了解 2026 年以後的情況，我們將如何發展。那麼，當我們進入 27 年和 28 年時，有形資產回報率是否還有進一步上升的空間？謝謝。

Do you want to take this? I'll have a crack at the second one, then you can get me back into my box.

你想拿走這個嗎？我會嘗試第二個，然後你就可以把我帶回我的盒子了。

Let me kick off on both Charlie, and then perhaps you can just add on both as we go through. The first of all, in respect to '26, Jonathan, you're right, we won't comment precisely on numbers, but just to give you some sense of what's going on there and indeed, fill in some of the points on Charlie's chart earlier on '24 through '26 that he presented.

讓我先從查理開始，然後你可以在我們進行的過程中補充兩者。首先，關於 26 年，喬納森，你是對的，我們不會準確評論數字，而只是讓你了解那裡發生的事情，並且確實填補了查理早些時候在 24 年至 26 年期間提出的一些要點。

You will have seen on that chart, we basically have three blocks, headwinds, hedge and strategic initiatives and BAU income growth. Within the headwinds, it's the familiar headwinds that we've seen to date, which is to say the mortgage book number one.

您會在圖表上看到，我們基本上有三個區塊，即逆風、對沖和戰略舉措以及 BAU 收入成長。在逆風中，我們至今所見的都是熟悉的逆風，也就是第一大抵押貸款帳簿。

We've got mortgages coming off the book at a maturity rate of about 1.09% in quarter four. That's going back on at about 75 basis points as a completion rate per my comments in my script earlier on. That is a mortgage refinancing headwind that plays itself out through the course of '25, but it's not really done with -- it's not really dealt with until we're into, let's say, mid-26 roughly speaking.

第四季度，我們的抵押貸款到期利率約為 1.09%。根據我之前在腳本中的評論，這將以大約 75 個基點的完成率回歸。這是抵押貸款再融資的逆風，它將在 25 年期間逐漸顯現，但並沒有真正結束——它要等到我們進入，比如說，26 年中期，才會真正得到解決。

The second headwind there is, again, familiar territory of deposit churn augmented somewhat by bank base rate reductions, which, as you know, have a lag in terms of our ability to pass that on to customers. So those are the two big blocks within headwinds.

第二個不利因素是，我們熟悉的存款流失問題，加上銀行基準利率下調，導致存款流失加劇。所以，這是逆風中的兩大障礙。

They're somewhat supplemented by bounce-back repayments, government backed lending repayments, but minor, frankly, those are the two big headwinds that I pointed out just a second ago. The hedge we've given you the information about clearly, and I'll come back to that and answer your second question. But that's GBP2.7 billion in the course of '24 through '26 -- sorry, GBP2.7 billion incremental income, '24 to '26.

它們在某種程度上受到了反彈還款、政府支持的貸款還款的補充，但坦白說，這些是我剛才指出的兩大阻力。我們已經向您清楚地提供了有關對沖的信息，我將回過頭來回答您的第二個問題。但這是 1924 年至 1926 年期間的 27 億英鎊 - 抱歉，是 1924 年至 1926 年的增量收入 27 億英鎊。

And then finally, the strategic initiatives and BAU income growth. We pointed you to greater than GBP1.5 billion now for strategic initiatives, income growth, which hopefully gives you some idea of what we would expect to achieve in addition to the GBP0.8 billion that we've already achieved for that bucket, if you like.

最後，策略舉措和 BAU 收入成長。我們指出，目前戰略舉措和收入增長的資金已超過 15 億英鎊，如果您願意的話，希望這可以讓您了解除了我們已經實現的 8 億英鎊之外，我們還期望實現什麼目標。

And then beneath that, you've got primarily volume-based expansion in BAU. Asset growth in the main. So mortgage is unsecured, deposit volumes as well on the liability side, but in the main asset growth. And that's contributing to that BAU growth.

在此之下，您主要看到的是 BAU 的基於體積的擴展。資產成長為主。因此，抵押貸款是無擔保的，存款量在負債方面也一樣，但在主要資產成長方面。這有助於 BAU 的成長。

So where does that, because again, I won't put a number on it. But we feel pretty comfortable that we said we should see a reasonable clip in terms of earnings this year off the back of the point that I described in response to, I think it was Ben's question earlier on, maybe Guy's question earlier on.

那麼，這在哪裡呢？但我們感到相當放心，我們說我們應該看到今年的獲利成長合理，基於我在回答中描述的觀點，我想這是本之前提出的問題，也許是蓋伊之前提出的問題。

But then we do feel that most probably accelerates during the course of 2026. The interest income sector is a big part of that. OOI keeps on with its pace in the way that we've seen in '24, '25, '26 more or less evenly in terms of the growth expectation. So I won't put a number on Jonathan, but we feel to be comfortable with respect to the income growth that we expect to see over that period.

但我們確實感覺到，這一趨勢很可能會在 2026 年加速。利息收入部門佔其中很大一部分。OOI 的成長預期與我們在 24、25、26 年看到的大致一致，基本上保持平穩。因此，我不會為喬納森設定一個數字，但我們對預計在此期間的收入成長感到滿意。

The second point on structural hedge, and Charlie, we want to comment on both. In respect to structural hedge, we've given numbers today, which I hope are useful in respect of the build of the structural hedge through '26.

第二點是關於結構性對沖，查理，我們想對這兩點進行評論。關於結構性對沖，我們今天給了一些數字，我希望這些數據對於 26 年結構性對沖的建立有用。

I won't comment directly upon your yield point, but I'll make two points. One is our expectation for notional growth a little bit this year, a little bit more than that over the quarter '26. But overall, the notional will probably not exceed 250 even over that course of time, i.e., will be marginally below 250.

我不會直接評論你的屈服點，但我會提出兩點。一是，我們預計今年的名目成長會比 2026 年季度略高一些。但總體而言，即使在這段時間內，名目金額可能不會超過 250，即略低於 250。

That means that the yield and you'll be able to work this out is still south of where three year, four year, five year rates are today. And so is there more kind of room for growth, if you like, in '27? Yes, logically, if rates today at the sharp market on a term basis are indeed correct, there should be more scope for hedge earnings growth in the period beyond '26.

這意味著收益率（您將能夠計算出）仍然低於目前三年期、四年期、五年期利率的水平。那麼，如果您願意的話，27 年是否還有更多的成長空間？是的，從邏輯上講，如果當今敏銳的市場利率按期限計算確實正確，那麼在 26 年以後的時期內對沖收益增長的空間應該更大。

So I'd only add two things. And I wonder where you're going to go, how far you're going to go. We always said we're going to manage this institution for medium term shareholder returns. We've got a different structural hedge in that context. And that's why you see upside beyond '26 on the structural hedge.

因此我只想補充兩點。我想知道你要去哪裡、要走多遠。我們總是說，我們要管理這個機構以實現中期股東回報。在此背景下，我們得到了不同的結構性對沖。這就是為什麼你認為結構性對沖在 26 年以後還有上行空間。

On the core business though, I hope what you're seeing and hearing today is the momentum we've built through the first three years that we take into '25 and '26 will continue, and the intent is we're building competitive advantage and where we think we do it at attractive returns for our shareholders.

不過，就核心業務而言，我希望大家今天看到和聽到的是，我們在前三年建立的勢頭將在25年和26年繼續延續，我們的目的是建立競爭優勢，我們認為我們可以為股東帶來有吸引力的回報。

We're capturing market share. And then we're changing the speed and the agility of the organization to compete. So without us talking about the strategy beyond '26, that momentum is being built for the long term. And the second part of that, which I know you all know, when you run an organization like this in a slower growth economy, you expose yourselves to parts of the economy that grow faster than the economy.

我們正在佔領市場份額。然後我們正在改變組織的速度和敏捷性來參與競爭。因此，我們雖然不討論 26 年以後的策略，但這種勢頭是長期形成的。第二部分，我知道大家都知道，當你在成長較慢的經濟體中運作這樣的組織時，你會將自己暴露在經濟成長速度快於經濟成長的領域。

So if you think about transition finance housing, which set a much higher growth in the economy, the mass affluent customer segments, pensions and the pension consolidation plays that we've got. I've gone through a whole set of these, project finance and infrastructure in the context of this government. Those are all going to be growing significantly faster than the economy.

因此，如果您考慮過渡融資住房，它將為經濟、大眾富裕客戶群、退休金和退休金合併帶來更高的成長。我已經經歷了這一系列的事情，包括本屆政府的專案融資和基礎設施。這些產業的成長速度都將遠遠快於經濟成長速度。

And that's a deliberate choice when you run an institution like this that is so well positioned for us to be able to participate and choose where we really make a difference in the economy. So we're building a franchise to continue to grow and to grow ahead of the GDP and ahead of our competitors and that's plan.

當你經營這樣的機構時，這是一個深思熟慮的選擇，它為我們提供了良好的條件，讓我們能夠參與並選擇真正對經濟產生影響的地方。因此，我們正在建立一個特許經營權，以繼續成長，並領先於 GDP 和我們的競爭對手，這就是計劃。

Excellent, thank you. Let's go to Ben, next door.

非常好，謝謝。我們去隔壁的本吧。

Thank you very much, Ben Caven-Roberts from Goldman Sachs. So first question, just on lending. I know you've already given some helpful color around your expectations for growth into 2025. But just wondering if there's anything else you would add in terms of the underlying mix.

非常感謝高盛的 Ben Caven-Roberts。第一個問題是關於貸款的。我知道您已經對 2025 年的成長預期做出了一些有益的闡述。但我只是想知道您是否還有什麼關於底層混合的內容要添加。

And then also just for your impairment guide of the roughly 25 basis points, if there's anything beneath the surface there in terms of which segments maybe are doing relatively better or less well. And then secondly, just a bit more of a holistic question on the path ahead for digitalization in terms of how much you feel like you've reaped a lot of the low hanging fruit?

然後，對於大約 25 個基點的減損指南，如果其中有任何潛在因素，則表示哪些部分可能表現相對較好或較差。其次，關於數位化的未來道路，您覺得您已經獲得了多少唾手可得的成果，這是一個更全面的問題嗎？

And then maybe how much there is still to go and make progress there? And how potentially the continued improvements in the challenger banks are influencing your strategy at all? Or if there is any read across sort of in a longer-term perspective in that regard? Thank you.

那麼也許還有多少可以取得進展呢？挑戰者銀行的持續改善可能對您的策略產生怎樣的影響？或者是否有任何關於這方面的長期見解？謝謝。

So I'll take the third one.

因此我選擇第三個。

Sure. Thanks, Charlie. Thanks, Ben, for your question. In respect of lending, first of all, we saw lending growth of 2% which equates to about GBP9.5 billion thereabouts, which we think was pretty respectable. It was, of course, led by mortgages.

當然。謝謝，查理。謝謝本的提問。在貸款方面，首先，我們看到貸款增加了 2%，相當於約 95 億英鎊，我們認為這是相當可觀的。當然，其中最主要的是抵押貸款。

If you exclude amortizations, mortgages were up GBP8 billion. If you include them about GBP6 billion. So pretty strong growth there, but then supplemented by growth in other areas of activity. What would I say about 2025? Our expectation is that mortgages continue to grow at a reasonably healthy rate over the course of this year.

如果不計攤銷，抵押貸款將增加 80 億英鎊。如果把它們也算上的話，大約是60億英鎊。因此，那裡的成長相當強勁，而且也受到其他活動領域的成長的補充。我對 2025 年有什麼看法？我們預計今年抵押貸款將繼續以合理健康的速度成長。

We've seen some support to that thesis, if you like, in the first quarter of 2025 so far, albeit maybe some of that is front-loaded, pending stamp duty changes at the budget and the like. But nonetheless, reasonably healthy mortgage growth through the remainder of this year.

到目前為止，我們已經在 2025 年第一季看到了對這一論點的一些支持，儘管其中一些可能是前期投入的，等待預算中的印花稅變化等。但儘管如此，今年剩餘時間內抵押貸款的成長仍將相當健康。

The distinction, I think then with 2025 is probably twofold. One is, I would expect to see slightly broader-based growth in respect of some of the other areas. So personal loans, cards and so for personal loans actually grew pretty strongly, but some of that is catch up because securitization in the balance sheet or rather off the balance sheet.

我認為 2025 年的差異可能有兩個面向。一是，我預計其他一些領域也會出現略微更廣泛的成長。因此，個人貸款、信用卡等個人貸款實際上增長相當強勁，但其中一些是趕上來的，因為資產負債表內的證券化，或者更確切地說是表外的證券化。

So a bit more of an even spread in the other retail books over the course of '25. And then the second point that I would make is when you look at commercial. We've so far been held back a bit in BCB by government repayments outweighing new business in BCB. And that's been a combination of government payments repairer, but also be relatively slow demand that we've seen from our BCB clients.

因此，在 25 年期間，其他零售書籍的分佈更加均勻。我要說的第二點是關於商業方面。到目前為止，由於政府償還款項超過巴拿馬城商業銀行的新業務，我們在巴拿馬城商業銀行的發展受到了一定阻礙。這是政府支付修復的綜合結果，但也是我們從 BCB 客戶那裡看到的相對緩慢的需求。

I think over the quarter '25, the government repayments will start to ever way. And we don't expect, frankly, particularly strong growth from our BCB clients, but perhaps a bit more than we have seen in 2024. Let's see. So I think that's probably a second characteristic of asset growth during '25. Overall, it won't be hugely different from '24, but overall, maybe a little bit of an improvement, perhaps like the best way to put it.

我認為在 25 年季度，政府還款將開始見效。坦白說，我們並不期望我們的 BCB 客戶實現特別強勁的成長，但可能會比 2024 年的成長略高一些。讓我們來看看。所以我認為這可能是25年資產成長的第二個特徵。總體而言，它與 24 年不會有太大不同，但總體而言，可能會有所改進，也許這是最好的說法。

In respect to AQR, Ben, a couple of comments. One is the charge in '24 was, as you know, very low 10 basis points over the course of the year, GBP430 million thereabout GBP33 million. It's not going to be 10 basis points in '25. It's going to be more like circa 25 basis points that we've guided to over the course of '25. And why is that?

關於 AQR，Ben，有幾點評論。一是如您所知，1924年的收費非常低，全年僅收取 10 個基點，即 4.3 億英鎊，約 3,300 萬英鎊。到 25 年，它不會達到 10 個基點。它將更接近我們預計在 25 年內達到的 25 個基點左右。這是為什麼呢？

I think two points to make. One is we're not expecting almost by definition, MES benefits over the course of '25. We set out our economics. We obviously expect that to transpire and therefore, we don't forecast MES benefits over the course of '25.

我認為有兩點。一是，我們幾乎不可能根據定義預期 MES 在 25 年內帶來效益。我們闡述了我們的經濟學。我們顯然預期這種情況會發生，因此，我們不會預測 25 年期間的 MES 收益。

The second reason is that if you look at the underlying over the course of the year, excluding MES benefits, we were at 19 basis points over the course of the year, but that benefits a little bit at the margin from things like removal of inflationary judgments. We saw inflation, but we didn't asset quality impact. And so we didn't feel that the judgment made sense anymore.

第二個原因是，如果看一下全年的基本情況，不包括 MES 福利，全年的收益為 19 個基點，但由於取消了通膨判斷等因素，這在邊際上略有好處。我們看到了通貨膨脹，但沒有看到資產品質的影響。所以我們覺得這個判斷不再有意義了。

Likewise, we had an asset sale in the course of '24 in respect of the unsecured book. We're not planning for one of that size again in '25. And so there were one or two benefits from those types of issues in '25, which meant that the true underlying asset quality ratio in '25 when you strip three, four, forgive me -- when you strip those points out, looks more like 22, 23, 24 basis points in that zone.

同樣，我們在 24 年間出售了無擔保帳簿的資產。我們不打算在25年再次舉辦同樣規模的會議。因此，在 25 年，這類問題確實帶來了一兩個好處，這意味著，當你去掉三、四個點，請原諒我 — — 當你去掉這些點時，25 年真正的基礎資產質量比率看起來更像是該區域的 22、23、24 個基點。

And that's why we're circa 25 as we see it off the back of relatively stable economic forecasts for 2025. That's where it's coming from. It's coming from analysis of the underlying them.

這就是為什麼我們根據 2025 年相對穩定的經濟預測將其定為 25 左右。它的來源就在這裡。它來自於底層內容的分析。

Great. And then on digitization, Ben, thanks for the question, for my favorite questions. Look, I think the first thing is just to recognize where Lloyds Banking Group starts from. Go with the retail, I can go any way you want, but the retail business, we've increased the number of app users by 40% and the number of log-ons to 7 billion transactions per year. So that's increased 50% in this last cycle.

偉大的。然後關於數位化，本，謝謝你的提問，這是我最喜歡的問題。我認為，首先要認識到勞埃德銀行集團的起點。就零售業而言，我可以走任何你想要的路，但在零售業務方面，我們的應用程式用戶數量增加了 40%，登入次數達到每年 70 億筆交易。因此在上一周期中這一數字增加了 50%。

And you saw a whole set of the screenshots I shared around the kind of user experiences and how we're engaging customers. We're by far the biggest digital service in the UK. And when you look at the power of that flow of customers, we're seeing it as a fantastic way of engaging customers, getting them to think differently about their relationship with us and to significantly increase our reach and our cost to serve.

您看到了我分享的整套螢幕截圖，這些截圖涉及用戶體驗以及我們如何吸引客戶。我們是迄今為止英國最大的數位服務公司。當你看到客戶流的力量時，我們會發現這是吸引客戶的絕佳方式，讓他們以不同的方式思考與我們的關係，並顯著提高我們的覆蓋範圍和服務成本。

So what we're demonstrating so far is our ability to drive growth and then reduce the cost to serve and the cost to acquire is significant as we build out our digital capabilities. I mentioned in the presentation, we've taken that leadership position in retail.

到目前為止，我們展示的是我們推動成長的能力，然後在建立數位化能力的過程中降低服務成本和收購成本。我在演講中提到，我們已經在零售業中佔據了領導地位。

We've taken it to BCB to our SME business, and that's got a bit of way to go, and we've taken it to IP&I. And that's really exciting when you think about pensions investments and the leadership position that we're building there. Have we got a way to go? I'll always tell you, we're just scratching the surface, we're just starting.

我們已經將它帶到了 BCB，應用到我們的中小企業業務中，這還有一段路要走，然後我們又將它帶到了 IP&I。當你想到退休金投資和我們在那裡建立的領導地位時，這真的令人興奮。我們還有路可走嗎？我總是告訴你，我們才剛觸及表面，我們才剛開始。

When I think what we've done to date, it's a lot. And relative to this market, it's a significantly leading position. But in every area of differentiation, engagement and efficiency, I think there's more ways to go. I'm particularly excited about how Generative AI and then our AI can start to differentiate our services and deliver new services.

當我想到我們迄今為止所做的事情時，我發現它們很多。相對於這個市場，它處於明顯的領先地位。但在差異化、參與度和效率等各個領域，我認為還有更多的路要走。我特別興奮的是生成式人工智慧以及我們的人工智慧如何開始區分我們的服務並提供新的服務。

So again, I mentioned earlier, we're working in an FCA regulatory sandbox across our IP&I and retail businesses to say how do we break down the advice guidance barrier? How do we get democratized advice and guidance using really personalized digital experiences and that could radically change.

所以，我之前再次提到過，我們正在 FCA 監管沙盒中開展工作，涉及我們的 IP&I 和零售業務，以討論我們如何打破建議指導障礙？我們如何利用真正個人化的數位體驗來獲得民主化的建議和指導，這可能會發生根本性的改變。

No one does that today, so it would be us creating the market for the future. I think there's lots of opportunities for us like that. You asked about the challenger banks. Our view is always it's been -- they have brought in a different expectation around digital experiences.

今天沒有人這樣做，所以我們將為未來創造市場。我認為我們有很多這樣的機會。您詢問的是挑戰者銀行。我們的觀點始終是──他們對於數位體驗帶來了不同的期待。

Some of them actually just differentiate through pricing. As you know, it's not about the digital experience, and that's a different question because there's a question for our shareholders around how we manage that. But no, we do see them as relevant. They do set the standard in some areas, but we've been able to either replicate or exceed them.

其中一些實際上只是透過定價來區分。如你所知，這與數位體驗無關，這是一個不同的問題，因為我們的股東對我們如何管理這一點存在疑問。但事實並非如此，我們確實認為它們是相關的。他們確實在某些領域設定了標準，但我們已經能夠複製甚至超越他們。

And when you look at Lloyds Banking Group, none of them can come close to the kind of ecosystems and breadth of engagement that we can provide. So we very much think this is down to us improving our capabilities, talent, tech, data and then really leading the market, and that's what we plan to do.

看看勞埃德銀行集團，你會發現沒有一家銀行能夠提供與我們類似的生態系統和廣泛的參與範圍。因此，我們非常認為這取決於我們提高我們的能力、人才、技術、數據，然後真正引領市場，這也是我們計劃要做的。

Excellent. Thank you. Before taking a couple of questions in there, there's been a couple of questions that have come online as well. So Sheila at JPMorgan has in a couple of areas. Firstly, with strategic initiatives to drive greater than GBP1.5 billion of additional revenues, what areas have surprised more positively compared to expectations to drive the upgrade? And should we think about higher absolute costs associated with that? That was the first part.

出色的。謝謝。在回答幾個問題之前，網路上也出現了幾個問題。摩根大通的 Sheila 涉足了幾個領域。首先，透過策略性措施帶來超過 15 億英鎊的額外收入，與預期相比，哪些領域帶來了更積極的驚喜，從而推動了升級？我們是否應該考慮與此相關的更高的絕對成本？這是第一部分。

The second part, I think he's definitely gone over the two questions here, but here we go. Second one was, can you elaborate on the regulatory board discussions that went into the GBP1.7 billion share buyback given the motor finance uncertainty? And what gives you confidence in getting down to the 13% CET1 ratio by 2026?

第二部分，我想他肯定已經討論過這兩個問題了，但讓我們開始吧。第二個問題是，考慮到汽車金融的不確定性，您能否詳細說明監管委員會對 17 億英鎊股票回購的討論情況？那麼，您如何有信心在 2026 年將 CET1 比率降至 13％？

Shall I take the first one, William, and then maybe you can of course, share our regulatory discussions. So I did, by the way, we're always going to be honest and humble around this. I did share that we didn't meet our targets in some areas.

我來先問第一個問題吧，威廉，然後你當然可以分享我們的監管討論。順便說一句，我確實這麼做了，在這個問題上我們會一直保持誠實和謙虛。我確實說過，我們在某些​​領域沒有達到目標。

So I'm going to talk more about the positive areas, but we also, in the appendix, we'll continue to be honest around the areas that didn't work very well or fully in line with our expectations. So which are a couple of the areas that probably exceeded our expectations. I'll give you a couple.

因此，我將更多地談論積極的領域，但在附錄中，我們也將繼續誠實地指出那些表現不太好或完全不符合我們預期的領域。那麼，哪些領域可能超出了我們的預期。我會給你一些。

The first one is in our CIB franchise. And probably I could pick out a number of areas, but we've realized that our very focused strategy on kind of cash debt risk management with a really clear participation strategy and the fact that we're a national champion means we don't compete with most financial institutions globally, and we go with a really clearly distinctive proposition to those providers.

第一個是在我們的 CIB 特許經營店。或許我可以挑選出一些領域，但我們已經意識到，我們非常專注於現金債務風險管理的策略，擁有非常明確的參與策略，而且我們是全國冠軍，這意味著我們不會與全球大多數金融機構競爭，我們對這些提供者提出了非常明確的獨特主張。

And so we're seeing that a lot of intermediaries -- sorry, asset managers, pension funds, private credit companies, private equity companies and other big international banks recognize that we're the best at what we do, and they've brought significantly more business to us. And of course, as we've started to use our balance sheet more efficiently, we're a great counterparty through our optimization activities.

因此，我們看到很多中介機構——對不起，資產管理公司、退休基金、私人信貸公司、私募股權公司和其他大型國際銀行都承認我們是最好的，他們為我們帶來了更多的業務。當然，隨著我們開始更有效地使用資產負債表，我們透過優化活動成為了出色的交易對手。

So that's an example that wasn't in the strategic initiatives. But as we just got the new management team with the right expertise with the right focus, and we started to really operate as a joined up team, we saw really significant value on the table, and that was exciting.

這是一個策略性舉措中沒有的例子。但當我們剛剛擁有了擁有正確專業知識和正確重點的新管理團隊，並且我們開始真正地作為一個聯合團隊運作時，我們看到了真正巨大的價值，這是令人興奮的。

Another one that was in the BAU growth, if I just talk about that, was around our lending business and then the link to the full ecosystem and the digital engagement we build out. We didn't put specific strategic initiative investment behind that business, but we grew our market share by 3%.

如果我只談論 BAU 成長中的另一個成長，那就是我們的貸款業務，以及與完整生態系統的連結以及我們建立的數位參與。我們沒有對該業務進行具體的策略計畫投資，但我們的市佔率卻成長了 3%。

And if you think about how that ties into our ability to compete through third-party aggregators leverage the power of those 7 billion log-ons through our mobile app and then tie it into services like your credit score. We've managed to join up the capabilities and really give a differentiated service and win market share in a very accretive business.

如果您想一想，這與我們透過第三方聚合器的競爭能力有何關聯，我們就可以利用透過我們的行動應用程式獲得的 70 億次登入的力量，然後將其與您的信用評分等服務聯繫起來。我們成功地整合了各方能力，真正提供了差異化的服務，並在一個增值業務中贏得了市場份額。

I could go on, right? But there's two specific examples. Should they increase the costs, as William has been clear, there are some of the businesses overall that have some higher OpEx linked to the growth. I don't think those two examples are great examples of that. They won't need significantly more capacity.

我還可以繼續，對吧？但有兩個具體的例子。如果他們增加成本，正如威廉明確指出的那樣，總體而言，一些業務的營運成本會隨著成長而增加。我認為這兩個例子並不是很好的例子。他們不需要顯著增加的容量。

But some of these areas where we grow will need more OpEx. What we're very focused on and William talked about this, is making sure that the cost-income ratio, if you like, on a marginal basis is better than the one we've got in the group so that you can see that operating leverage coming through. And that's certainly what we've been seeing in the first three years and what we're planning to do over the next two.

但我們成長的某些領域將需要更多的營運支出。我們非常關注的，威廉也談到了這一點，就是確保成本收入比，如果你願意的話，在邊際基礎上要比我們集團現有的要好，這樣你就能看到經營槓桿的發揮。這確實是我們在前三年看到的情況，也是我們計劃在未來兩年內實現的情況。

Second question, thanks for the question. Our regulatory discussions on this topic as on all topics were very constructive. The nature of the conversation was to take a look at the risk item in isolation, i.e., what is it that might become of motor and to take into account in that consideration the provision that we have taken against it, i.e., the incremental GBP700 million.

第二個問題，感謝您的提問。我們針對該主題以及所有主題進行的監管討論都非常有建設性。談話的性質是單獨地研究風險項目，即，汽車可能變成什麼樣子，並考慮到我們針對它所採取的措施，即增量的7億英鎊。

Alongside of that, there was a discussion around the likely performance of the business going forward and indeed, the performance of the business under a potential stress event should the macro economy take a dive, which we don't expect, but nonetheless, what might it look like.

除此之外，大家也討論了未來業務可能的表現，事實上，如果宏觀經濟出現下滑，在潛在的壓力事件下，業務的表現會如何，這是我們所不希望看到的，但無論如何，情況可能會是怎樣的。

And that combination, if you like, led the discussion to end with approval, I suppose, is the best way to put it, for the GBP1.7 billion buyback alongside going to 13.5% CET1 ratio. Now looking forward, it's worth bearing in mind in that construct this business is a highly cash-generative business. It earns close on GBP4 billion per year.

如果您願意的話，這種組合可以讓討論以批准而結束，我想，這是最好的說法，即 17 億英鎊的回購計劃以及 13.5% 的 CET1 比率。現在展望未來，值得牢記的是，這項業務是一個高度現金創造的業務。其每年收入近40億英鎊。

That is a substantial cushion for anything that might get thrown in its way. We don't expect it to be clear, GBP700 million, the GBP1.15 billion is our best estimate based upon the variety of scenarios. But the business has an awful lot of cushion built into it off the back of the cash generation that it secures, if you like, every year going forward.

這對於應對可能遇到的任何阻礙都具有實質的緩衝作用。我們並不指望它會很清楚，7 億英鎊，11.5 億英鎊是我們基於各種情境所做的最佳估計。但是，如果你願意的話，你可以想像，該公司透過每年都能獲得的現金流，為自己建立了巨大的緩衝。

So within that, we have confidence and our regulator had confidence to allow us to get to 13.5% and to allow us to undertake a GBP1.7 billion buyback. It's that confidence combined with that cash generation that gives me every confidence that we're going to get to 13% in 2026.

因此，我們有信心，我們的監管機構也有信心允許我們達到 13.5%，並允許我們進行 17 億英鎊的回購。正是這種信心加上現金創造讓我完全有信心我們將在 2026 年達到 13%。

Aman?

阿曼？

Morning guys, thanks for the presentation. Two questions, one on mortgages and one on capital, please. I just wanted to check, you did talk about 75 basis points completion spread in Q4. It looks like spreads have probably come off a bit since then, given the higher swap rate. So is there any way you could kind of tell us what you're assuming for the front book spread this year? If not a number, is it in line or below that level?

大家早安，感謝你們的演講。請問兩個問題，一個關於抵押貸款，一個關於資本。我只是想檢查一下，您確實談到了第四季度 75 個基點的完成利差。由於掉期利率較高，利差似乎自此下降。那麼您能否告訴我們您對今年前冊書的銷售有何預期？如果不是數字，它是否與該水平一致或低於該水平？

And relatedly, you've been taking market share in mortgages for a while now, which is clearly a departure from what we're used to seeing much of the last 10 years. And just interested, is this just a new kind of domain for market share in mortgages? Are you now just back into the mode of driving market share from here? And to what extent is it price dependent?

與此相關的是，你們在抵押貸款市場已經佔據了一定份額有一段時間了，這顯然與我們在過去 10 年中大部分時間所看到的情況不同。我只是感興趣，這是否只是抵押貸款市場份額的一個新領域？您現在是否剛回到從這裡開始推動市場佔有率的模式？它在多大程度上依賴價格？

The second question is a follow-on on distribution. So I think you're pointing to your guidance for '26 greater than 200 basis points of CET1 capital generation and running your target CET1 ratio down to target of 13%. It does imply a massive step-up in the surplus capital in '26.

第二個問題是關於分佈的後續問題。因此，我認為您指的是 26 年 CET1 資本產生超過 200 個基點的指導，並將目標 CET1 比率降至 13% 的目標。它確實意味著1926年剩餘資本的大幅增加。

I think very crudely, I can get to GBP6 billion of excess capital in '26. The Street's modeling dividends of around GBP2 billion. Without being too smart, it implies potentially really quite outsized surplus distributions in '26, Motor Finance notwithstanding. I mean, is it realistic to think about a buyback of GBP4 billion in full year '26 results, whenever that may be? Thank you.

我粗略地算了一下，我可以在26年獲得60億英鎊的過剩資本。華爾街的模型股利約 20 億英鎊。儘管這可能不太聰明，但這意味著26年的盈餘分配可能會非常龐大，儘管汽車金融公司除外。我的意思是，考慮在 26 年全年業績中回購 40 億英鎊是否現實，無論何時？謝謝。

Should I take the first one? So yes, just on mortgages, as you said, our performance last year, we were really pleased with. And yes, it was a higher market share than we've seen for a while. We always said when we started this strategy, if you drew the line for the group and how market shares have changed in the last decade, if you drew those forward through until the end of this decade, the group wouldn't be able to generate the capital for shareholders that it was.

我該選第一個嗎？是的，就抵押貸款而言，正如您所說，我們對去年的表現感到非常滿意。是的，它的市場份額比我們之前見過的要高。我們一開始製定這個策略時就說過，如果你為集團劃一條分界線，看看過去十年市場份額是如何變化的，如果你把這條分界線一直拖到這個十年末，那麼集團就無法為股東創造資本。

And so it was important to be able to stabilize some of the big businesses and then grow in high-value areas. And last year was important because we did that at healthy margins based on real interventions, and I can see our head of that business or the CEO of that division up here on really specific interventions around how we were competing, how we were positioning ourselves with intermediaries our own customer base and getting them to remortgage with us, affordability changes.

因此，穩定一些大企業並在高價值領域發展非常重要。去年是重要的一年，因為我們透過實際幹預實現了健康的利潤率，而且我可以看到我們該業務的負責人或該部門的首席執行官在這裡採取了非常具體的干預措施，包括我們如何競爭，如何向中介機構定位我們自己的客戶群，如何讓他們與我們進行再抵押貸款，以及負擔能力的變化。

It was a really nice set of changes that led to that. As you said, margins were about 75 basis points. You should expect that to flow through into Q1. The first few weeks and the first month of the year has been tighter to your point, it's always seemed to be the way in the last few years when the swap curve is going up, it's margins tighten.

這是一系列非常好的變化導致了這一點。正如您所說，利潤率約為 75 個基點。您應該預期這將延續到 Q1。正如您所說，今年頭幾周和第一個月的利潤比較緊張，過去幾年似乎總是如此，當掉期曲線上升時，利潤率就會收緊。

I don't think we're going to guide to specific margins for the whole year unless you're going to, William, but you should expect it to tighten at this stage, if the conditions stay the same, but let's see where it's going. I think importantly, and I really back on your point about market share.

威廉，除非你願意，否則我認為我們不會指導全年的具體利潤率，但如果條件保持不變，你應該預期它在此階段會收緊，但讓我們看看它會走向何方。我認為重要的是，我非常贊同你關於市場佔有率的觀點。

Look, we always said we will not chase market share in mortgages as the biggest provider. You have the potential not to do the right thing for our shareholders and actually for our position and trading to a specific market share in any month, week, quarter, and create quite a negative impact on the overall market pricing. So you should expect us to trade smartly.

你看，我們總是說，我們不會追逐成為最大抵押貸款提供者的市場份額。您有可能無法為我們的股東以及我們的地位和在任何月份、一周或一個季度的特定市場份額做出正確的事情，從而對整體市場定價產生相當大的負面影響。所以你應該期望我們能夠明智地進行交易。

We know we to manage and grow that portfolio over time. We're proving that we can do it, but we're not going to chase a certain market share in any specific moment. I don't think that's right for the shareholders, actually for the franchise or for our customers in that context.

我們知道，隨著時間的推移，我們要管理和擴大該投資組合。我們正在證明我們可以做到這一點，但我們不會在任何特定時刻追逐特定的市場份額。我認為這對股東來說是不對的，實際上對特許經營權或對我們的客戶來說都是不對的。

So let's see how the year goes. We'll give you the update in Q1. As you said, the volumes in the market have been high in Q1 as people are looking to try and exchange houses before the stamp duty comes in, margins have been a bit tighter. We think the outlook for the whole year is probably more stable than that, but the first few months has been quite busy.

那麼讓我們看看今年的情況如何。我們將在第一季向您提供更新資訊。正如您所說，第一季的市場交易量很高，因為人們想在印花稅徵收前嘗試交換房屋，利潤率有點緊張。我們認為全年的前景可能比這更穩定，但前幾個月相當繁忙。

Thanks, Charlie. Aman, just to give you a number on the mortgage book yield right now, which might help you with some of the analysis that you're doing. We're looking at a mortgage book yield right now of somewhere between 90 to 100 basis points for the book as a whole.

謝謝，查理。阿曼，我只想給你一個目前抵押貸款帳簿收益率的數字，這可能會對你正在進行的一些分析有所幫助。我們現在看到的抵押貸款帳簿收益率大約在 90 到 100 個基點之間。

I mentioned that in Q4, we were seeing maturity yield after rolling off of about 1.09%, which is the right number. That's now leaving a book behind of about 90 to 100 basis points, as I said versus the 75 that Charlie mentioned just now that gives you an idea as to the mortgage financing headwind.

我提到，在第四季度，我們看到到期收益率下降了約 1.09%，這是正確的數字。正如我所說，這意味著現在帳面餘額將減少約 90 到 100 個基點，而查理剛才提到的帳面餘額為 75 個基點，這可以讓您了解抵押貸款融資的逆風情況。

The '26 guidance, you're right to point out that our capital guidance does take a step up in 2026. And as you know, we've guided to in excess of 200 basis points without being more specific about that, exactly what does greater than GBP200 million. That's off the back of uncertainties that are out there for sure, macro uncertainties regulatory, which I'll come back to in just a second. But nonetheless, all of those points are what notwithstanding, we are very comfortable with our greater than 200 basis points guidance that we have given you in 2026. And that is off the back of everything that we know, and particularly that which is in our control.

對於 2026 年的指引，您指出得對，我們的資本指引在 2026 年確實有所提升。如你所知，我們已經指導超過 200 個基點，但沒有具體說明超過 2 億英鎊到底意味著什麼。這是由於肯定存在的不確定性、宏觀不確定性和監管因素造成的，我稍後會繼續討論這個主題。但儘管如此，儘管存在所有這些問題，我們對 2026 年給出的超過 200 個基點的指導感到非常滿意。這基於我們已知的一切，特別是我們能夠控制的一切。

A couple of points. First of all, I don't think you're missing anything in respect to the P&L, the capital build and so forth. We pointed all of that out, and you've got collectively. The market, I think, has got to dams around that. There are some uncertainties that are still out there.

有幾點。首先，我認為您沒有遺漏任何有關損益表、資本建設等方面的資訊。我們已經指出了所有這些，並且你們已經團結在一起。我認為，市場必須對此採取限制措施。一些不確定因素仍然存在。

I won't mention the macro because everybody knows about that and there's a point of view on it. I highlighted earlier on the CRD IV still requires a bit of ironing out in the conversations. We are looking at modestly greater than GBP5 billion potentially. It depends upon how the PRA conversations land.

我不會提及宏觀，因為每個人都知道這一點，並且對此都有自己的看法。我之前強調過，CRD IV 在對話中仍然需要一些解決。我們預計該金額可能略高於 50 億英鎊。這取決於 PRA 對話的結果。

So there's an uncertainty there. Now that was until very recently offset by the introduction of Bal 3.1, which has now been delayed. Now what you've got is Bal 3.1 happening on the first or the first '27. So there's a little -- there isn't now the overlap that there was, albeit it's not terribly different in its overall timetable.

因此，這裡存在不確定性。直到最近，這個問題才被 Bal 3.1 的推出所抵消，但現在已被推遲。現在您所看到的是 Bal 3.1 發生在第一個或第一個 '27。因此，雖然整體時間表沒有太大不同，但現在不再有重疊了。

So those uncertainties perhaps worth mentioning. I don't want to confirm the number that you put out a second ago. But I do want to say that we do expect a meaningful step up in capital generation in respect of 2026. And then we'll be up to the board up to the Board to figure out, hopefully, with Charlie's and my inputs members of the Board, tell you what do we do with that capital. Thanks Aman.

因此這些不確定性也許值得一提。我不想確認你剛才說出的數字。但我想說的是，我們確實預期 2026 年的資本創造能力將會顯著提高。然後我們將由董事會來決定，希望在查理和我的意見下，董事會成員會告訴你們我們該如何處理這些資金。謝謝阿曼。

Thanks. Okay, thank you. Before -- actually, I'll come to Chris in a second. There's another question online, which comes from Ed Firth from KBW. You very helpfully highlight the tailwind from the maturing hedge across full year '25 and full year '26. Does this mean that we are looking at a proforma NIM of greater than 3.5%? And what are your deposit pass through assumptions?

謝謝。好的，謝謝。之前 — — 實際上，我馬上就會談到克里斯。網路上還有另一個問題，來自 KBW 的 Ed Firth。您非常有幫助地強調了 25 年全年和 26 年全年到期對沖帶來的順風。這是否意味著我們正在看到形式上的淨利息收益率 (NIM) 大於 3.5%？您的存款轉嫁假設是什麼？

I take that, yeah. Thank you for the question, Ed. I feel somehow that's going to attempt to circumvent our efforts to move to NII guidance over the course of next year. So I'm not going to answer that in a direct way at least.

是的，我明白了。謝謝你的提問，艾德。我覺得這會在某種程度上試圖阻礙我們在明年轉向 NII 指導的努力。所以至少我不會直接回答這個問題。

Safe to say that 3.05%, 3.05% NIM is consistent with the GBP13.5 billion net interest income guidance we've given for 2025. My expectation is that margin is going to gradually move up over the course of the year. So we hit 2.97% in quarter four.

可以肯定地說，3.05%、3.05% 的 NIM 與我們給出的 2025 年 135 億英鎊的淨利息收入指引一致。我預計利潤率將在一年內逐步上升。因此我們在第四季度達到了2.97％。

My expectation is that it will build pretty much quarter-on-quarter as we go forward. And that will be a function of, if you like, gathering strength of the tailwinds, Ed in his question talked about the structural hedge together with a gradual waning of some of the headwinds. And we talked a lot about mortgage refinancing, including in the prior question. We also expect that the headwind in respect to deposit churn to slow.

我的預期是，隨著我們向前發展，這個數字將會逐季大幅成長。如果你願意的話，這將是順風力量聚集的一個功能，艾德在他的問題中談到了結構性對沖以及一些逆風的逐漸減弱。我們討論了很多關於抵押貸款再融資的問題，包括前面的問題。我們也預計，存款流失方面的阻力將會減緩。

We saw deposit churn in '24. We expect to see deposit churn in '25, but we expect that deposit churn to be some 20% less or so in '25 versus '24. So it gradually ebbs a way consistent with a falling interest rate environment. Ed's question that implicitly asked what's the pattern in respect to '26.

我們在24年看到了存款流失。我們預計25年存款流失率將上升，但我們預計25年的存款流失率將比24年下降20%左右。因此，它會以與利率下降環境一致的方式逐漸消退。艾德的問題隱含地詢問了 26 年的模式是什麼。

You can tell from our comments around the structural hedge and my comments just now about the waning headwinds, forgive me, that we would expect net interest income to continue to grow quite materially in respect of 2026.

您可以從我們圍繞結構性對沖的評論以及我剛才關於逆風減弱的評論中看出，請原諒我，我們預計到 2026 年淨利息收入將繼續大幅增長。

I'm not going to put a margin figure around it. What we will do this time next year is give you an NII expectation as to what that means. But that, in a very broad sense, would be consistent with gathering pace of the margin. But Ed, I'm not going to comment on your number.

我不會在它周圍標註邊距數字。明年此時，我們將為您提供 NII 預期，以了解這意味著什麼。但從廣義上講，這與利潤率的提高步伐是一致的。但是艾德，我不會對你的號碼發表評論。

Okay. And the deposit pass through assumptions?

好的。存款轉嫁假設如何？

Sorry, deposit pass-through assumptions. So far, we've seen about 50%. So of the bank base rate changes that we have seen late last year, beginning of this year, basically 50% is the short answer.

抱歉，存款轉嫁假設。到目前為止，我們已經看到了大約 50%。因此，就去年年末和今年年初我們看到的銀行基準利率變化而言，簡單的答案基本上是 50%。

Chris, I think you had a question back there.

克里斯，我想你剛才有一個問題。

Morning. It's Chris Cant from Autonomous. Thank you for the presentation. Thanks for taking the questions. I wanted to come back on the structural hedge, if I might, William. In terms of the numbers, I think Andrew tried this at the very beginning of the Q&A. You've got GBP240 billion of hedge, 3.5 year life. You've said it's fairly mechanical or caterpillar shaped ever we want to describe it.

早晨。我是 Autonomous 公司的 Chris Cant。感謝您的演講。感謝您回答這些問題。如果可以的話，我想回到結構性對沖的話題上，威廉。就數字而言，我認為安德魯在問答環節一開始就嘗試過這一點。您有 2400 億英鎊的對沖，期限為 3.5 年。您說過，無論我們如何描述它，它都相當機械化或像毛毛蟲一樣。

So should we be thinking about GBP69 billion of maturities over two years, which should just be 2/7 of that number and your knowledge your head, I don't know whether I'm way off base with that. (multiple speakers)

那麼，我們是否應該考慮兩年期 690 億英鎊的到期債務，這應該只是這個數字的 2/7，而您的知識只是您的頭腦，我不知道我是否錯了。（多位發言者）

About GBP69 billion implied by that. And then you've said it would remain south of GBP250 million through '26. So maybe we're talking about mid-single-digit billions of volume growth in the hedge over this period of time.

這意味著約690億英鎊。然後您說到26年這個數字將維持在2.5億英鎊以下。因此，也許我們談論的是這段時間內對沖量成長數十億美元的中等個位數。

So all in, were something in the high 70s of billions of notional where you've got a yield pickup coming through. To get to the GBP2.7 billion that you're talking about, the GBP2.7 billion tailwind, that would appear to imply a churn yield on the back book of maybe 50 basis points in terms of the derivatives that are rolling in '25 and '26.

因此，總而言之，名目金額大約在 700 億美元左右，收益率正在上升。為了達到您所說的 27 億英鎊，即 27 億英鎊的順風，這似乎意味著在 25 年和 26 年衍生品方面，後期帳簿的流失收益率可能為 50 個基點。

I just want to see whether I'm putting the pieces together correctly. I know you tend to think about things in terms of the year-over-year gross income. And I think from where most of us in this room is sitting, we try to think about it as a NIM build-off of the 4Q. So it's important to understand the churn yield. So anything you could say on that would be appreciated, please.

我只是想看看我是否正確地把各個部分組合在一起。我知道您傾向於從同比總收入的角度來考慮問題。我認為，從我們這個房間裡的大多數人的角度來看，我們試圖將其視為第四季度的 NIM 構建。因此，了解客戶流失率非常重要。因此，如果您對此有任何意見，我們將非常感激。

And then in terms of the cost of risk development, just curious to understand what your view on the through-the-cycle cost of risk for the balance sheet you now have is, obviously, we've had a very benign asset quality trends for some time. But as we think out to your 2026 and potentially longer term expectations for the business, what do you think through the cycle cost of risk is for the balance sheet? Thank you.

然後就風險發展成本而言，我很好奇地想了解您對目前資產負債表的周期風險成本的看法，顯然，我們在一段時間內已經擁有非常良性的資產品質趨勢。但是，當我們考慮您對 2026 年以及潛在的更長期業務預期時，您認為整個週期的風險成本對資產負債表的影響是多少？謝謝。

Thanks, Chris. I'll comment on both of those. Charlie might want to pick up on the second in addition to what I say. First of all, on the structural hedge, Chris, I won't comment precisely on your numbers, save maybe just to kind of fill in a few pieces here and there. We've got GBP2.2 billion notional right now, as I said, stable in the second half of the year off the back of strong deposit performance.

謝謝，克里斯。我會對這兩點發表評論。除了我所說的內容之外，查理可能還想了解第二點。首先，關於結構性對沖，克里斯，我不會對你的數字做出準確評論，也許只是在這裡或那裡填寫一些內容。正如我所說，我們目前的名義資產為 22 億英鎊，由於存款表現強勁，下半年將保持穩定。

We do expect strong deposit performance over the course of the next two years, but some of that is going to be fixed. Some of it is going to be limited to withdrawal. Some of it is going to be inter access. Some of it is going to be, I would say, consolidation more or less in the PCA world, rather than necessarily significant expansion.

我們確實預計未來兩年存款表現會強勁，但其中一些問題需要解決。其中一些將僅限於提款。其中一些將是相互訪問的。我想說，其中有些或多或少會是 PCA 領域的整合，而不一定是顯著的擴張。

Overall, our expectation is that only a modest amount of that will feed into structural hedge. And I said earlier on that during the next couple of years, we are, as you commented back to me, expected to be just south of GBP250 billion.

總體而言，我們預計其中只有少量資金會用於結構性對沖。我之前說過，在接下來的幾年裡，正如您對我所說的，我們預計將達到 2500 億英鎊左右。

I'll stick with that. It is just south of GBP250 billion though. So just to be clear, we're not talking about a big gap there. I think the point that I would highlight on the second part of your question is, yes, if you think about a 3.5 year weighted average life, you've got basically a seven year total life, you're not really far wrong if you just do that on a caterpillar basis, not really far arm, you won't be precisely right, but you won't be far wrong.

我會堅持這一點。不過，這數字略低於2,500億英鎊。因此需要明確的是，我們談論的並不是巨大的差距。我認為我要強調的關於你問題的第二部分的觀點是，是的，如果你考慮 3.5 年的加權平均壽命，那麼你的總壽命基本上是七年，如果你只是以毛毛蟲為基礎來做這件事，你就不會錯，不是真的遠臂，你不會完全正確，但你不會錯得太離譜。

Then at the same time, you talked about yield on hedges that are put on it's worth just saying that there is a bit of lumpiness in terms of the yield on hedges that drop out. And that's the point that I was trying to make earlier on about why it's not necessarily totally predictable in terms of the income streams, hopefully, in turn, why the GBP1.2 billion for '25 and GBP1.5 billion for '26 incremental growth is helpful in that context.

然後與此同時，您談到了對沖的收益率，值得一提的是，就對沖的收益率而言，存在一些不穩定性。這就是我之前試圖說明的觀點​​，關於為什麼收入流不一定完全可預測，希望反過來，為什麼25 年 12 億英鎊和 26 年 15 億英鎊的增量增長在這種情況下是有幫助的。

But think about both the yields that come on and the yields that drop out when you think about the hedge earnings. There's a little bit because we want to make sure that the hedge is not unduly exposed to any given concentration risk in any given time period, there is a little bit of what I've termed in the past is pre-hedging.

但是，當你考慮對沖收益時，要同時考慮產生的收益率和下降的收益率。有一點是因為我們想確保對沖在任何給定時間段內不會過度暴露於任何給定的集中風險，這有一點我過去所說的預先對沖。

We've tried to iron out those concentration risks over time periods. But that's part of the picture, but the first two points, the more important parts. So Chris, hopefully, that gives you a rough idea. Again, if you think about it as a seven year total like 3.5 year average life and pull it forward on that basis.

我們一直試圖在一段時間內消除這些集中風險。但這只是情況的一部分，而前兩點是更重要的部分。所以克里斯，希望這能給你一個大概的了解。再說一次，如果你把它看作是一個七年的總數，就像 3.5 年的平均壽命，並在此基礎上將其向前推進。

Bearing in mind current rates and bearing in mind the current yield, you're not going to be a miles off where we're headed towards. The second question, cost of risk, it's an interesting one. As I said earlier on, we saw a very low cost of risk in '24, but that was off the back of significant MES benefits.

考慮到當前的利率和目前的收益率，你不會偏離我們前進的方向太遠。第二個問題，風險成本，這是一個有趣的問題。正如我之前所說，我們看到 24 年的風險成本非常低，但這是得益於 MES 的巨大優勢。

The run rate cost of risk that we saw in '24, it came in a bit over the course of the quarters. But for the time we got to quarter three, quarter four, it was remarkably consistent, actually, as I said before, 22 to 24 basis points after having kind of taken out all of the movements that might be considered vaguely one-off in their nature.

我們在 24 年看到的風險運行率成本在幾個季度內上升。但到了第三季度和第四季度，正如我之前所說，實際上，它非常穩定，在剔除所有可能被認為本質上是一次性的變動之後，保持了 22 到 24 個基點的穩定。

Where are we in terms of that, two points that I'd make. One is we're seeing very favorable developments across the book. I only partly answered Ben's question earlier on is to how we see the different components of the book developing. But in short, both across retail and in commercial, we're seeing very steady development. So very low NTAs, for example, across the retail book, likewise, very low flows to default.

就這一點而言，我們處於什麼位置？一是我們看到整本書都出現了非常有利的發展。我之前只部分回答了本的問題：我們如何看待這本書的不同部分的發展。簡而言之，無論是零售業還是商業業，我們都看到了非常穩定的發展。因此，例如，在零售帳簿中，NTA 非常低，同樣，違約流量也非常低。

Business support unit and watch list developments in the commercial book, very benign. You're always going to get one and two that break that rule. But basically, as a rule, it's very, very benign. Now we are, as I said, guiding 25 basis points for 2025.

商業帳簿中的業務支援單位和觀察名單發展非常良性。你總是會遇到一兩件違反這項規則的事情。但基本上，作為一項規則，它是非常非常無害的。正如我所說，現在我們預期 2025 年的通膨率為 25 個基點。

I think there is a question that is emerging as to given the risk standards over the last few years, and I really mean since the financial crisis that have been implemented across the group is our cost of risk systematically lower than the circa 30 basis points that we pointed to in the past, there's an argument about that.

我認為現在出現了一個問題，即考慮到過去幾年的風險標準，我的意思是，自金融危機以來，我們在整個集團實施的風險成本是否係統地低於我們過去指出的約 30 個基點，對此存在爭論。

There is, I think, a fair debate to be had about it. we certainly feel very secure in the context of the experience that we're seeing, combined with the asset quality of the book, whether it's things like loan deposit ratios in mortgages quality of our customer of ACG, greater than GBP80,000 average household income for a mortgage customer or greater than GBP45,000 for a personal unsecured loan customer.

我認為，對此可以進行公平的辯論。從目前的經驗來看，結合帳簿的資產質量，我們當然感到非常有安全，無論是 ACG 客戶的抵押貸款品質中的貸款存款比率，抵押貸款客戶的平均家庭收入是否超過 80,000 英鎊，還是個人無擔保貸款客戶是否超過 45,000 英鎊。

We feel very, very comfortable as the asset -- the underlying asset quality. And I think, Chris, over time, we'll see, but we certainly feel comfortable with where we are right now, including the cost of risk of 25 basis points for this year.

我們對資產－基礎資產的品質感到非常非常放心。克里斯，我認為，隨著時間的推移，我們會看到，但我們對目前的狀況感到滿意，包括今年 25 個基點的風險成本。

Yeah, well, I don't think I should really add much that because that's the key message I just suppose the other thing which hopefully you've had a feeling for from today and over the last few years is we've done significant derisking on top of just seeing the performance in the ongoing originations. So more than half the legacy portfolio in mortgages business, that's very significant.

是的，嗯，我認為我不應該再補充太多，因為這是關鍵訊息，我只是認為另一件事，希望您從今天和過去幾年中已經感受到，那就是我們除了看到正在進行的發起中的表現之外，還進行了重大的風險降低。因此，超過一半的遺留投資組合屬於抵押貸款業務，這是非常重要的。

As you know, and specifically under stress scenarios, that's very significant. We had a CRE portfolio, some of which was below water from an ROE perspective and then where we looked at SRT there's more efficient capital holders of that risk.

如您所知，特別是在壓力情況下，這非常重要。我們有一個 CRE 投資組合，從 ROE 的角度來看，其中一些是處於虧損狀態，而從 SRT 的角度來看，我們發現有更有效的創投持有人。

And that's been material as part of our optimization. And then I won't go into them, but there's been some high-profile single names in our CIB business that we've clarified over the last couple of years. So that's been a very deliberate strategy to make sure that we were using our capital as efficiently as we could and creating the capacity for growth.

這是我們優化的重要組成部分。然後我就不再贅述了，但在過去幾年中，我們已經澄清了 CIB 業務中的一些備受矚目的單一名稱。所以這是一個非常謹慎的策略，以確保我們盡可能有效率地利用資本並創造成長能力。

And so I think that does give us that opportunity going forward to continue to grow. And I agree, William will continue to look at how we guide around this, but we feel good about the resilience and the quality of the book that we have.

因此我認為這確實為我們未來繼續發展提供了機會。我同意這一點，威廉將繼續研究我們如何解決這個問題，但我們對這本書的韌性和品質感到滿意。

Thank you Charlie. I think we are out of time, but I'll just take the one final question from just the room itself and then we'll call it a day. There were a couple of other questions on online, but essentially most of those have already been addressed via other questions. So we'll have this as the last question.

謝謝你，查理。我想我們已經沒有時間了，但我只想回答房間裡的最後一個問題，然後我們就可以結束這一天了。網路上還有其他幾個問題，但基本上大多數問題已經透過其他問題得到解答了。因此我們將此作為最後一個問題。

Thank you. It's Amit Goel here from Mediobanca. So one, a follow-up to Jonathan's question on the revenues. Again, just working back as I think you said costs kind of flattening. So I mean, look, if I take [9.8], [9.9], if I apply 48% or 49% cost income on that, I end up actually closer to the [20.5] of revs, which would imply actually no wins I just want to check what I'm kind of maybe missing there?

謝謝。我是 Mediobanca 的 Amit Goel。首先，我想問喬納森關於收入的問題。再說一遍，我認為正如您所說，成本已經趨於平穩。所以我的意思是，看，如果我拿[9.8]，[9.9]，如果我將48％或49％的成本收入應用於此，我最終實際上更接近[20.5]的轉速，這實際上意味著沒有勝利，我只是想檢查我可能遺漏了什麼？

And then secondly, on the remediation and the charge taken, when I compare to the other organizations that taking charges so far, and I compare it to kind of market share, this number does seem to be a little bit higher.

其次，關於補救措施和收取的費用，當我與迄今為止收取費用的其他組織進行比較並將其與市場份額進行比較時，這個數字似乎確實高一些。

So I just wanted to check what that you think could be relative conservative within your modeling assumptions or whether maybe some of that market share data isn't quite the right thing to be using when assessing relative costs?

所以我只是想檢查一下，您認為在您的建模假設中什麼可能是相對保守的，或者在評估相對成本時，某些市場份額數據是否不太合適？

That's on the motor particular. (multiple speakers) Amit, thanks for the question. I'm going to only comment at a relatively high level on your first question, simply because otherwise, it will drag me into confirming numbers that go beyond where I'd like to go for today.

這具體與引擎有關。（多位發言者）阿米特，謝謝你的提問。我只會以相對較高的水平來評論你的第一個問題，因為否則，我會被迫確認超出我今天想要達到的數字。

But safe to say, we do expect the cost picture to flatten out over the course of '25 through '26, not necessarily completely flattened but get to a flat, let's say, outcome. Why is that? Importantly, what's going on?

但可以肯定地說，我們確實預期成本狀況將在 25 年至 26 年期間趨於平穩，不一定完全趨於平穩，但可以這麼說，是趨於平穩的結果。這是為什麼？重要的是，發生了什麼事？

I mentioned earlier on that we've got a continuation of our GBP1.2 billion cost savings that we've achieved to date, i.e., 2024. That is then offset by inflation by OpEx associated with expanding volumes but also by investment.

我之前提到過，我們將繼續實現迄今為止（即 2024 年）已實現的 12 億英鎊的成本節約目標。這部分費用會被伴隨產量擴大而來的營運成本以及投資帶來的通貨膨脹所抵銷。

Overall, very tight BAU cost discipline has allowed us, as I said in my comment earlier on to maintain the investment in the business going forward within our existing cost ambitions. And part of that investment is things like replacing systems, things like reduced data centers, things like automation, things like cloud migration.

總體而言，正如我先前的評論所說，非常嚴格的 BAU 成本紀律使我們能夠在現有的成本目標範圍內維持對業務的投資。這項投資的一部分包括更換系統、減少資料中心、自動化、雲端遷移等。

All of these things give us confidence ability to control costs in the period thereafter. And then I also commented within our investment is a layer of severance that we have previously not necessarily planned for quite the same way, which in turn gives us confidence in the overall cost profile of the business.

所有這些都使我們對此後控製成本充滿信心。然後我還評論說，我們的投資包含一層遣散費，我們以前不一定以同樣的方式規劃過，這反過來讓我們對業務的整體成本狀況充滿信心。

So I would make that comment, I suppose, in response to your question. On the motor point, the key point on the motor issue is that there are a range of uncertainties. So I talked about the legal uncertainties. I talked about the FCA uncertainties, and I talked about the customer response uncertainties.

所以我想我會做出這樣的評論來回答你的問題。關於運動點，運動問題的關鍵點在於存在一系列的不確定性。我談到了法律的不確定性。我談到了 FCA 的不確定性，也談到了顧客反應的不確定性。

And within that, within each of those three buckets, there are a variety of -- a number of uncertainties. Now therefore, market share is kind of interesting to look at, but it is far from being the determinative feature, if you like, of what a provision should look like.

在這三個類別中，都存在著大量的不確定性。因此，現在，市場佔有率看起來很有趣，但它遠非一項條款應該是什麼樣子的決定性特徵。

When we look at it, and clearly, we've taken a lot of legal advice on this topic. We think the GBP700 million provision that we've taken is the right estimate for our business. But it, of course, implies that we have been suitably prudent in respect to what we think various outcomes might look like, whether they're legal outcomes, FCA outcomes or customer outcomes.

當我們審視這個問題時，顯然我們已經就此主題聽取了許多法律建議。我們認為，我們提取的7億英鎊撥備對我們的業務來說是正確的估計。但這當然意味著我們對各種結果可能會是什麼樣子持適當謹慎的態度，無論它們是法律結果、FCA 結果還是客戶結果。

And so that's what we based our GBP700 million, GBP1.15 billion total provision on. And as I said, we feel very, very comfortable with it.

這就是我們 7 億英鎊、11.5 億英鎊總撥備的依據。正如我所說，我們對此感到非常非常滿意。

Excellent. Thank you. So we'll call it there for questions. And Charlie, do you just want to --

出色的。謝謝。因此我們會打電話到那裡詢問問題。查理，你只是想--

Yes. Well, first of all, thank you very, very much for sitting through what was a slightly longer presentation than normal. But we really appreciate questions. Really appreciate the time. And we know we keep giving you uncertainties.

是的。嗯，首先，非常感謝您聽完這次比平常稍長的演講。但我們非常感謝您的提問。真的很感謝你抽出時間。我們知道我們一直在帶給你們不確定性。

But what I hope today was can really give you some clarity around the scope and scale of the risks associated with motor finance. Sure there's going to be more questions, but really appreciate it, and we look forward to the Q1 results, which will be William without me. So thanks very much for joining us today.

但我今天的希望能夠真正讓大家清楚了解與汽車金融相關的風險的範圍和規模。當然還會有更多問題，但我真的很感激，我們期待第一季的結果，那將是沒有我的威廉。非常感謝您今天加入我們。

Thank you.

謝謝。