Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and thanks very much for joining us at our 2023 full year results presentation. In line with prior results, I'll begin with a short overview of the group's financial and strategic performance. William will then provide the usual detail on our financials. Following a brief summary, we'll then take your questions. Let me begin on Slide 3.

大家早安，非常感謝您參加我們的 2023 年全年業績發表會。根據先前的結果，我將首先簡要概述該集團的財務和策略績效。然後威廉將提供有關我們財務狀況的常規詳細資訊。在簡短的總結之後，我們將回答您的問題。讓我從幻燈片 3 開始。

I'm really pleased with the progress we've made on implementing our customer-focused strategy, whilst at the same time, delivering strong outcomes for our shareholders. Now there are lots of moving parts in Q4 that William will talk through shortly. But underlying that, the business has performed strongly.

我對我們在實施以客戶為中心的策略方面取得的進展感到非常高興，同時為我們的股東帶來了強勁的成果。現在，第四季有很多變化的部分，William 很快就會談到。但在此基礎上，該業務表現強勁。

With that in mind, I'd like to highlight the following 3 things. Firstly, we've now completed the second year of our strategic transformation and are generating real business momentum. We remain on track to meet our strategic targeted outcomes. Secondly, we've met or exceeded the guidance that we laid out during the year, whilst taking proactive action to address a number of headwinds. Our financial performance has enabled increased capital returns of GBP 3.8 billion in the year.

考慮到這一點，我想強調以下三件事。首先，我們現在已經完成了策略轉型的第二年，並且正在產生真正的業務動力。我們仍有望實現我們的策略目標成果。其次，我們已經達到或超過了我們在這一年中製定的指導方針，同時採取了積極行動來解決一些不利因素。我們的財務表現使得今年的資本回報增加了 38 億英鎊。

And finally, we're confident of delivering higher, more sustainable returns for shareholders. Importantly, we are reiterating both our returns and capital generation for 2024 and 2026. Turning now to Slide 4, where I will highlight how we've delivered for all stakeholders in 2023. We have provided proactive and targeted support during a period of ongoing uncertainty for our customers. For example, we've contacted more than 15 million customers in 2023 to increase awareness regarding savings options and enhanced propositions.

最後，我們有信心為股東帶來更高、更永續的回報。重要的是，我們重申了2024 年和2026 年的回報和資本生成。現在轉向幻燈片4，我將在其中重點介紹我們在2023 年如何為所有利益相關者提供服務。在持續不確定的時期，我們提供了主動和有針對性的支援為我們的客戶。例如，我們在 2023 年聯繫了超過 1500 萬客戶，以提高他們對儲蓄選項和增強建議的認識。

Off the back of this, more customers trusted us with their savings, with balances actually growing in the year. We've also used our data insights to contact around 7.5 million customers offering support where required. Alongside this, our purpose-driven strategy is focused on building a more inclusive society.

在此背景下，更多的客戶信任我們的儲蓄，今年餘額實際上有所增長。我們也利用數據洞察聯繫了約 750 萬客戶，在需要時提供支援。除此之外，我們以目標為導向的策略重點是建立一個更具包容性的社會。

To this end, we've provided further support to first-time buyers and the social housing sector. Those are both part of a multiyear commitment that combined totals nearly GBP 100 billion of support since 2018.

為此，我們為首次購屋者和社會住宅部門提供了進一步的支持。這些都是多年承諾的一部分，自 2018 年以來總計提供近 1000 億英鎊的支持。

Finally, supporting the transition to a low carbon economy and creating a more sustainable future remains of great importance. Linked to this, we are increasing our commercial banking sustainable financing target to GBP 45 billion by 2026. Combined, these actions are representative of the strength of our purpose, helping Britain prosper, which enables us to successfully deliver for all stakeholders and deliver profitable growth for the business. On Slide 5, let me now address how we delivered for our shareholders with a brief overview of some of the key financial and nonfinancial metrics. William will take you through the detail later, but we have delivered a robust financial performance in line with both our expectations and the guidance we provided.

最後，支持向低碳經濟轉型和創造更永續的未來仍然非常重要。與此相關，我們將商業銀行可持續融資目標提高到2026 年450 億英鎊。這些行動綜合起來，體現了我們幫助英國繁榮的宗旨的力量，這使我們能夠成功地為所有利益相關者提供服務並實現獲利成長為了生意。在投影片 5 上，現在讓我介紹我們如何為股東提供服務，並簡要概述一些關鍵的財務和非財務指標。威廉稍後將向您介紹詳細信息，但我們已經實現了穩健的財務業績，符合我們的預期和我們提供的指導。

This is despite some difficult unexpected headwinds, combined with an uncertain external environment. Net income growth of 3% was supported by growth in both net interest income and other operating income. Combined with disciplined operating costs and strong asset quality, the group delivered a return on tangible equity of 15.8% for the year. This translated into strong capital generation of 173 basis points even after the impacts of regulatory headwinds and a provision relating to the FCA review of Motor Finance Commission arrangements. Excluding these exceptional items, our underlying capital generation was significantly stronger in excess of 200 basis points.

儘管存在一些難以預料的逆風，加上外部環境的不確定性，但情況仍然如此。淨利潤成長 3% 得益於淨利息收入和其他營業收入的成長。加上嚴格的營運成本和強大的資產質量，該集團今年的有形股本回報率為 15.8%。即使在受到監管阻力以及與 FCA 對汽車金融委員會安排審查相關的規定的影響之後，這也轉化為 173 個基點的強勁資本生成。排除這些特殊項目，我們的基礎資本產生能力顯著增強，超過 200 個基點。

This enabled total capital return of GBP 3.8 billion, equivalent to around 14% of the group's market capitalization. This includes a 15% increase in the ordinary dividend as well as a share buyback of up to GBP 2 billion. To pause briefly on the FCA motor finance review, as you will have seen, we have taken a charge of GBP 450 million. However, the extent of misconduct and customer loss, if any, remains unclear. We therefore welcome the independent intervention from the regulator to help ensure clarity for the industry and our customers on these issues.

這使得總資本回報達到 38 億英鎊，相當於該集團市值的 14% 左右。這包括普通股息增加 15% 以及高達 20 億英鎊的股票回購。暫時暫停 FCA 汽車財務審查，如您所見，我們已收取 4.5 億英鎊的費用。然而，不當行為和客戶流失的程度（如果有）仍不清楚。因此，我們歡迎監管機構的獨立幹預，以幫助確保行業和我們的客戶在這些問題上的清晰度。

Finally, with regards to nonfinancial performance, we continue to see strong business momentum, including a further increase in our leading levels of digital engagement with 21.5 million users now digitally active comfortably surpassing our 2024 targets. To build on this, I'll provide more detail on our strategic progress, starting with Slide 6. We've now completed the second year out of our 5-year transformation with just 1 year to go to deliver the interim 2024 actions. Our progress has been made possible by an ongoing commitment to investment. We've now delivered more than GBP 2 billion of incremental strategic investment with GBP 1.3 billion invested in 2023.

最後，在非財務業績方面，我們繼續看到強勁的業務勢頭，包括我們領先的數位參與水平進一步提高，目前有 2,150 萬數位活躍用戶，輕鬆超過了我們 2024 年的目標。在此基礎上，我將從投影片 6 開始詳細介紹我們的策略進展。我們現在已經完成了 5 年轉型的第二年，距離實施 2024 年中期行動只剩下 1 年了。我們的進步是透過持續的投資承諾來實現的。目前，我們已交付超過 20 億英鎊的增量策略投資，其中 2023 年將投資 13 億英鎊。

We're delivering continued momentum across our strategic initiatives. We remain on track to deliver the majority of our 2024 strategic objectives with 20% currently tracking ahead of plan. Whilst we have a small proportion that are currently behind schedule, in part due to changes in the external environment, that is to be expected in a strategic transformation as significant as ours. Encouragingly, our strategic delivery is translating into positive financial benefits. We've now realized around GBP 0.5 billion of additional strategic revenues and GBP 0.7 billion of gross cost savings. These provide us with the confidence that we will deliver the targeted financial benefits in both 2024 and 2026.

我們正在為我們的策略舉措提供持續的動力。我們仍有望實現 2024 年大部分策略目標，其中 20% 目前已提前完成計畫。雖然我們目前有一小部分進度落後於計劃，部分原因是外部環境的變化，但在像我們這樣重大的策略轉型中，這是可以預期的。令人鼓舞的是，我們的策略交付正在轉化為積極的經濟效益。我們現在已經實現了約 5 億英鎊的額外戰略收入和 7 億英鎊的總成本節省。這些讓我們有信心在 2024 年和 2026 年實現目標財務效益。

This includes a return on tangible equity of greater than 15% and capital generation of more than 200 basis points in 2026. On Slide 7, I'll provide a few examples of strategic delivery in 2023. Our consumer business is the largest contributor to our additional revenues from strategic initiatives. As you heard in our first investor seminar in October, this is an area where we're making great progress. In addition to the growing levels of digital engagement I highlighted previously, we have grown in areas that we see as attractive, including sustainable mortgages and financing and leasing for electric and hybrid electric vehicles. The latter has been supported by the highly complementary and successful acquisition of Tesco, which is delivering benefits well ahead of our expectations. We also have several exciting consumer proposition developments in the pipeline for 2024.

這包括 2026 年有形股本回報率超過 15%，資本產生超過 200 個基點。在投影片 7 上，我將提供一些 2023 年策略交付的例子。我們的消費者業務是我們的最大貢獻者。來自策略舉措的額外收入。正如您在 10 月的第一次投資者研討會上聽到的那樣，這是我們正在取得巨大進展的領域。除了我之前強調的數位化參與水準不斷提高之外，我們還在我們認為有吸引力的領域取得了成長，包括永續抵押貸款以及電動和混合動力汽車的融資和租賃。後者得到了對樂購的高度互補和成功收購的支持，樂購帶來的效益遠遠超出了我們的預期。我們也正在醞釀 2024 年一些令人興奮的消費者主張開發專案。

This includes our innovative embedded finance e-commerce proposition, which we are currently putting in place agreements with key merchants. Our mass affluent business is growing both customer numbers and banking balances. We're also improving our investment offering for this customer group through a new service called Ready-Made Investments. You'll hear more about our progress and plans in this space in our next strategy seminar, which takes place in March. Now turning to our progress on the commercial initiatives on Slide 8. Our commercial priorities are split across our SME and CIB businesses.

這包括我們創新的嵌入式金融電子商務主張，我們目前正在與主要商家達成協議。我們的大眾富裕業務的客戶數量和銀行餘額都在增加。我們也透過一項名為「現成投資」的新服務來改善為該客戶群提供的投資服務。您將在三月舉行的下一次策略研討會上了解更多有關我們在該領域的進展和計劃的資訊。現在轉向幻燈片 8 中我們在商業計劃方面的進展。我們的商業優先事項分為中小企業和 CIB 業務。

In SME, we remain focused on digitizing our offering and growing in underrepresented areas. For example, we were the first to launch a combined business current account and merchant services proposition in a new mobile-first origination journey for clients. This has driven a reduction in account opening times of up to 15x as well as supporting more than 20% growth in new merchant services clients for the second year in a row.

在中小企業中，我們仍然專注於產品的數位化以及在代表性不足的領域的發展。例如，我們是第一個在新的行動優先發起旅程中為客戶推出結合企業活期帳戶和商家服務主張的公司。這使得開戶時間減少了多達 15 倍，並支援新商業服務客戶連續第二年成長超過 20%。

In CIB, we are investing for growth across our cash debt risk management offering. And in 2023, exceeded our strategic target of GBP 15 billion of sustainable financing. We're increasing our focus on our award-winning transaction banking business and across our uniquely positioned markets franchise, delivering more than 20% growth in other operating income relative to 2021, in line with our strategic target. This is supporting capital-light revenue diversification for the group. I'll now briefly cover our enablers on Slide 9. Our enablers are focused on ensuring that our growth priorities are delivered alongside a business that is more cost efficient and less capital intensive with modern capabilities that are fit for the future.

在 CIB，我們正在投資現金債務風險管理產品的成長。並在 2023 年超過了我們可持續融資 150 億英鎊的策略目標。我們正在更加重視我們屢獲殊榮的交易銀行業務以及我們獨特定位的市場特許經營權，與 2021 年相比，其他營業收入增長超過 20%，這符合我們的戰略目標。這支持了該集團的輕資本收入多元化。現在，我將在投影片9 上簡要介紹我們的推動因素。我們的推動因素致力於確保我們的成長優先事項與更具成本效益、資本密集程度較低、具有適合未來的現代能力的業務一起實現。

With regard to cost efficiency, we have continued to transform our physical footprint, further improving the efficiency within our distribution network and delivering ongoing reductive -- reductions in our office spaces. At the same time, we're progressively modernizing our technology estate and improving our ways of working to increase the pace and efficiency of change.

在成本效率方面，我們繼續改變我們的實體足跡，進一步提高我們分銷網路的效率，並持續減少辦公空間。同時，我們正在逐步實現技術資產的現代化，並改進我們的工作方式，以加快變革的步伐和效率。

These activities position us well to deliver the 2024 gross cost savings target of circa GBP 1.2 billion. We've also taken proactive action to improve capital efficiency, for example, through the optimization initiatives and the elimination of our pension deficit.

這些活動使我們能夠很好地實現 2024 年約 12 億英鎊的總成本節約目標。我們也採取積極行動來提高資本效率，例如透過優化措施和消除退休金赤字。

I'll now close on Slide 10. So as you can see, we continue to make strong strategic and financial progress as we head towards the end of the first phase of our 5-year transformation. We're reinforcing the strength of our franchise by growing and deepening relationships with customers right across the group. Our progress to date increases our confidence in delivering our strategic initiatives as well as realizing the associated financial benefits. In turn, this will produce higher, more sustainable returns and capital generation for shareholders.

現在我將結束投影片 10。正如您所看到的，隨著我們的 5 年轉型第一階段即將結束，我們將繼續取得強勁的策略和財務進展。我們透過發展和深化與整個集團客戶的關係來增強我們的特許經營權的實力。迄今為止，我們所取得的進展增強了我們實施策略性舉措以及實現相關財務效益的信心。反過來，這將為股東帶來更高、更永續的回報和資本創造。

Thanks for listening. I'll now hand over to William for the financials.

感謝收聽。我現在將財務事宜交給威廉。

Thank you, Charlie. Good morning, everyone, and thanks again for joining. Let me now provide an overview of the financials on Slide 12. The group delivered a robust financial performance in 2023, meeting our guidance and demonstrating a resilient franchise.

謝謝你，查理。大家早安，再次感謝您的加入。現在讓我概述幻燈片 12 上的財務狀況。該集團在 2023 年實現了強勁的財務業績，符合我們的指導方針並展示了富有彈性的特許經營權。

Statutory profit after tax was GBP 5.5 billion, with a return on tangible equity of 15.8%. Net income of GBP 17.9 billion was up 3%, supported by a higher net interest margin of 311 basis points, in line with guidance and 10% growth in other income. This was partially offset by a higher operating lease depreciation charge, reflecting growth in lower used car prices.

法定稅後利潤為 55 億英鎊，有形股本回報率為 15.8%。淨利差達 179 億英鎊，成長 3%，淨利差提高 311 個基點，符合指引，其他收入成長 10%。這被較高的營業租賃折舊費用部分抵消，反映出二手車價格下降的成長。

We continue to manage costs tightly. Operating costs were GBP 9.1 million, in line with guidance and up 5% year-on-year. This was driven by higher planned strategic investments, including elevated severance charges, new business costs and ongoing inflationary pressures.

我們繼續嚴格管理成本。營運成本為 910 萬英鎊，符合指引，年增 5%。這是由於計劃中的策略性投資增加，包括遣散費上漲、新業務成本和持續的通膨壓力。

Asset quality is strong. The impairment charge of GBP 308 million includes a significant write-back as well as the impact of an improved economic outlook. Excluding these, the asset quality ratio would have been 29 basis points, still in line with our guidance.

資產品質強勁。 3.08 億英鎊的減損費用包括重大回撥以及經濟前景改善的影響。排除這些因素，資產品質比率將為 29 個基點，仍然符合我們的指引。

Tangible net assets per share, 50.8p were up 4.3p in 2023, including 3.6p in the fourth quarter. This performance resulted in strong capital generation of 173 basis points, again, in line with guidance and after significant regulatory headwinds.

每股有形淨資產為 50.8 便士，2023 年成長 4.3 便士，其中第四季成長 3.6 便士。這一業績使得資本產生強勁，達到 173 個基點，再次符合指導方針，並且在經歷了重大監管阻力之後。

Strong capital generation enabled an increased total capital return of GBP 3.8 billion. This includes a 2.76p per share total dividend, up 15% year-on-year and a share buyback program of up to GBP 2 billion.

強勁的資本生成使總資本回報增加了 38 億英鎊。其中包括每股 2.76 便士的總股息，年增 15%，以及高達 20 億英鎊的股票回購計畫。

Let me now turn to Slide 13 to look at the development of our customer franchise. Our customer franchise is resilient. Total lending balances stood at GBP 450 billion, down 1% on the prior year, including GBP 2 billion in the fourth quarter. Notably, the year-on-year movement includes securitizations of over GBP 5 billion of legacy mortgages and unsecured loans. Excluding these, lending balances were stable on the year.

現在讓我轉到投影片 13 來看看我們的客戶特許經營的發展。我們的客戶群具有彈性。貸款餘額總額為 4,500 億英鎊，比上年下降 1%，其中第四季為 20 億英鎊。值得注意的是，年比變動包括超過 50 億英鎊的遺留抵押貸款和無擔保貸款的證券化。除此以外，年內貸款餘額維持穩定。

Focusing on the fourth quarter. Mortgages were down slightly, but with the growth in the open book. There was modest growth in consumer finance, excluding the GBP 2.7 billion securitization.

重點關注第四季。抵押貸款略有下降，但未結帳有所增長。不包括 27 億英鎊的證券化，消費金融略有成長。

Commercial Banking was down GBP 2.9 billion in the quarter. This included GBP 0.5 billion of repayments of government-backed lending within the small and medium business enterprise. On the liability side, total deposits were down 1% in 2023 as a whole, however, up more than GBP 1 billion in Q4.

商業銀行業務本季下跌 29 億英鎊。其中包括 5 億英鎊償還政府支持的中小型企業貸款。負債方面，2023 年全年存款總額下降 1%，但第四季存款總額增加超過 10 億英鎊。

Deposit churn appears to be slowing. In the fourth quarter, retail current accounts were down GBP 1.9 billion compared to GBP 3.2 billion in Q3. This was more than offset by savings inflows of almost GBP 4 billion, again with slowing churn evident in the mix.

存款流失似乎正在放緩。第四季零售經常帳減少 19 億英鎊，而第三季為 32 億英鎊。這被近 40 億英鎊的儲蓄流入所抵消，而且客戶流失率也明顯放緩。

In the commercial franchise, deposits were down GBP 0.9 billion in Q4, predominantly within small and medium businesses. And in insurance, pensions and investments, we saw 8% growth in assets under administration in the fourth quarter.

在商業特許經營方面，第四季度存款減少了 9 億英鎊，主要是在中小型企業。在保險、退休金和投資領域，第四季管理資產成長了 8%。

Moving on to Slide 14, net interest income. NII of GBP 13.8 billion was up 5% on the prior year. Q4 was down 4% quarter-on-quarter. Average interest earning assets of GBP 453 billion were up slightly compared to 2022, with the fourth quarter broadly stable.

轉到投影片 14，淨利息收入。 NII 為 138 億英鎊，比上年增長 5%。第四季季減 4%。平均生息資產為 4,530 億英鎊，較 2022 年略有成長，第四季基本穩定。

Full year margin was up 17 basis points from 2022 at 311 basis points, in line with our guidance for greater than 310 basis points. This benefited significantly from the annualized impact of base rate changes as well as continued structural hedge reinvestment. Together, these outweighed pressures from mortgage pricing and deposit mix change.

全年利潤率較 2022 年上升 17 個基點，達到 311 個基點，符合我們超過 310 個基點的指引。這很大程度上受益於基本利率變化的年化影響以及持續的結構性對沖再投資。總之，這些壓力超過了抵押貸款定價和存款結構變化帶來的壓力。

The Q4 margin of 298 basis points was down 10 basis points compared to Q3, a touch more than we expected. This reflects lower PCA balances through most of the quarter, a higher-than-expected reduction in noninterest-bearing deposits in the commercial bank and mortgage pressures driven by swaps volatility.

第四季利潤率為 298 個基點，較第三季下降 10 個基點，略高於我們的預期。這反映出本季大部分時間PCA餘額下降、商業銀行無息存款減少幅度高於預期、掉期波動帶來的抵押貸款壓力。

Nonbanking net interest income was GBP 311 million, including a further GBP 80 million in Q4. This is up significantly compared to the prior year. It is likely to continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace in 2024.

非銀行淨利息收入為 3.11 億英鎊，其中第四季進一步增加了 8,000 萬英鎊。與去年相比，這一數字大幅上升。到 2024 年，它可能會繼續增長，儘管增速會放緩。

Looking forward, we now expect average interest-earning assets to be above GBP 450 billion in 2024. This implies a modest reduction year-on-year, driven by growth in the core business being offset by reductions in the SVR mortgage book and repayments of government support scheme loans in commercial. Alongside, we now expect the net interest margin to be greater than 290 basis points this year.

展望未來，我們目前預計，到2024 年，平均生息資產將超過4500 億英鎊。這意味著同比略有下降，這是由於核心業務的增長被SVR 抵押貸款賬簿的減少和還款額的減少所抵消。政府支持計劃商業貸款。此外，我們現在預計今年的淨利差將超過 290 個基點。

Within this, we'll see further pressure from mortgage book refinancing and ongoing deposit churn, albeit both of these headwinds are expected to ease throughout 2024. In the other direction, structural hedge provides a continued tailwind. Our assumption of 3 bank base rate reductions in 2024, starting in June, is obviously an important input to this guidance.

在此期間，我們將看到抵押貸款帳面再融資和持續存款流失帶來的進一步壓力，儘管這兩個不利因素預計將在2024 年全年緩解。另一方面，結構性對沖提供了持續的推動力。我們假設從 6 月開始，2024 年銀行基本利率將下調 3 次，這顯然是對該指引的重要輸入。

Let me now turn to Slide 15 to look at the mortgage book. The open mortgage book fell by GBP 1.1 billion in 2023, growing in the second half, including modestly in the fourth quarter. Strong customer retention in fixed rate products was offset by the roll-off from the SVR book.

現在讓我轉到投影片 15 來查看抵押貸款簿。 2023 年，開放式抵押貸款帳簿減少了 11 億英鎊，下半年有所增長，其中第四季度小幅增長。固定利率產品的強勁客戶保留率被 SVR 帳簿的下滑所抵銷。

Our market share demonstrated resilience in what was a slow market environment. The group margin continues to be impacted by the difference between new and maturing mortgage spreads. While pricing remained competitive in the fourth quarter, the market has slightly strengthened. Completion margins were around 60 basis points, slightly higher than we saw in Q3.

我們的市佔率在低迷的市場環境中表現出了彈性。集團利潤率繼續受到新抵押貸款利差和到期抵押貸款利差之間的差異的影響。儘管第四季度的定價仍然具有競爭力，但市場略有走強。完成利潤率約為 60 個基點，略高於第三季的水平。

And looking forward, as we move through the year, margins on maturing mortgages will reduce gradually. This means the mortgage pricing headwind is abating through 2024 and into 2025. The expectation is for modest growth in the open mortgage book across the year. This is supported by strong customer retention and a slightly improving net lending market.

展望未來，隨著今年的推移，到期抵押貸款的利潤將逐漸減少。這意味著從 2024 年到 2025 年，抵押貸款定價的阻力將會減弱。預計全年未平倉抵押貸款將溫和成長。這得益於強勁的客戶保留率和略有改善的淨借貸市場。

Let me now turn to our other asset books on Slide 16. Excluding the impact of securitizations, we saw a solid performance in our other lending portfolios. Combined balances for U.K. cards, unsecured loans and motor were up GBP 2.7 billion in 2023, again, excluding the securitization activity. In Q4, credit cards were flat. Within this, interest-bearing balances were up slightly based on growth in low-risk customer segments. Motor balances and unsecured lending likewise, were both up slightly.

現在讓我談談投影片 16 上的其他資產帳簿。排除證券化的影響，我們看到其他貸款投資組合表現穩健。 2023 年，英國信用卡、無擔保貸款和汽車的總餘額再次增加 27 億英鎊（不包括證券化活動）。第四季度，信用卡持平。其中，由於低風險客戶群的成長，帶息餘額略有增加。汽車餘額和無擔保貸款同樣略有上升。

Commercial balance -- commercial banking lending was down GBP 5.1 billion in 2023. In the fourth quarter, balances across small and medium businesses were down GBP 1.2 billion, including repayments of government-backed lending. CIB lending meanwhile fell by GBP 1.7 billion, reflecting a disciplined approach to lending in the context of growing income streams.

商業餘額－2023 年商業銀行貸款減少 51 億英鎊。第四季度，中小企業餘額減少 12 億英鎊，其中包括政府支持貸款的償還。與此同時，CIB 貸款減少了 17 億英鎊，反映出在收入流不斷增長的背景下採取了嚴格的貸款方式。

Let's move to the other side of the balance sheet on Slide 17. Deposit performance was robust over the year. Total customer balances of GBP 471 billion were down GBP 4 billion or 1% in 2023, but up GBP 1 billion in Q4.

讓我們轉到投影片 17 上資產負債表的另一面。這一年存款表現強勁。 2023 年，客戶總餘額為 4,710 億英鎊，減少 40 億英鎊或 1%，但第四季增加 10 億英鎊。

Retail deposits ended the year at GBP 308 billion. Over the year, we recaptured a significant proportion of the current account outflows within our own savings proposition. Indeed, our retail savings accounts were up GBP 12 billion in 2023, including GBP 4 billion in the fourth quarter. This performance was driven by enhanced propositions and proactive customer communications.

年底零售存款為 3,080 億英鎊。一年來，我們在自己的儲蓄計劃中收回了很大一部分經常帳戶流出。事實上，我們的零售儲蓄帳戶到 2023 年增加了 120 億英鎊，其中第四季增加了 40 億英鎊。這項業績是由增強的主張和主動的客戶溝通所推動的。

As I said, we're now seeing deposit churn in the retail business slowdown. The switch into fixed-term savings accounts from Instant Access in Q4, for example, was materially less than we saw in Q3. Commercial deposits are down GBP 1 billion in both 2023 and Q4. This was driven by customers reducing balances primarily in the SMB business, partially offset by targeted growth in the CIB franchise.

正如我所說，我們現在看到零售業務放緩導致存款流失。例如，第四季度從即時存取轉向定期儲蓄帳戶的數量大大少於我們在第三季看到的情況。 2023 年和第四季商業存款均減少 10 億英鎊。這是由於客戶主要減少中小型企業業務的餘額，部分被 CIB 特許經營的目標成長所抵消。

Going forward, based on the current rate outlook, we expect deposit mix shift to continue to slow gradually in 2024.

展望未來，根據目前的利率前景，我們預期 2024 年存款結構轉變將持續逐漸放緩。

Let me now turn to the structural hedge on Slide 18. Structural hedge notional ended the year at GBP 247 billion. This includes a GBP 4 billion reduction in Q4, in line with our expectations for a modest notional reduction in the second half. The weighted average duration of the hedge remains around 3.5 years. As you know, we manage structural hedge prudently. Given the slowing deposit churn we expect in 2024, we're planning for a further modest reduction in the notional balance this year, stabilizing in the second half.

現在讓我談談幻燈片 18 上的結構性對沖。年底結構性對沖名義金額為 2,470 億英鎊。這包括第四季減少 40 億英鎊，符合我們對下半年名義上小幅減少的預期。對沖的加權平均久期維持在3.5年左右。如您所知，我們謹慎管理結構性避險。鑑於我們預計 2024 年存款流失將放緩，我們計劃今年進一步小幅減少名目餘額，並在下半年趨於穩定。

We have around GBP 40 billion of maturities during the year, which gives us significant flexibility in our hedge management. In 2023, hedge income was GBP 3.4 billion, GBP 0.8 billion than the prior year. Looking forward, we expect this to be around GBP 0.7 billion higher this year given the continued benefit from rolling the hedge into higher swap rates. Indeed, the refinancing of the hedge remains a powerful driver of income growth for the foreseeable future.

我們年內擁有約 400 億英鎊的到期債券，這為我們的對沖管理提供了極大的靈活性。 2023年，對沖收入為34億英鎊，比前一年增加8億英鎊。展望未來，鑑於對沖轉入更高掉期利率的持續收益，我們預計今年這一數字將增加約 7 億英鎊。事實上，在可預見的未來，對沖再融資仍然是營收成長的強大推動力。

Moving to other income on Slide 19. Other income of GBP 5.1 billion was 10% higher than 2022, driven by growth across the businesses. Retail saw an improved current account and credit card performance in the context of recovering activity as well as a growing motor contribution.

轉向幻燈片 19 上的其他收入。在各業務成長的推動下，其他收入為 51 億英鎊，比 2022 年增長 10%。在經濟活動復甦以及汽車貢獻不斷增長的背景下，零售業的經常帳戶和信用卡表現有所改善。

Commercial saw growth in markets and bond financing based on increased market shares. Meanwhile, IP&I other income was up 26% year-on-year. This included the benefit from the strong new business levels, income releases from a higher contractual service margin and improved general insurance performance.

商業市場和債券融資因市場份額的增加而成長。同時，IP&I 其他收入較去年同期成長 26%。這包括強勁的新業務水平、更高的合約服務利潤帶來的收入釋放以及一般保險業績的改善。

Looking forward, we expect gradual progress in other income driven by higher levels of activity and the realization of our strategic initiatives.

展望未來，我們預計在更高水準的活動和實現我們的策略舉措的推動下，其他收入將逐步取得進展。

Turning to operating lease depreciation. GBP 956 million is a significantly higher charge year-on-year. The increase is driven by 2 factors: Firstly, volumes are continuing to grow in the motor leasing business, driven by organic growth and the acquisition of Tesco. Secondly, after a period of outperformance, used car prices have fallen including a particular decline in the fourth quarter. This has resulted in a normalization of the depreciation expense as well as an additional nonrun rate charge of around GBP 100 million taken in Q4 to restock our forward-looking provision given used car price falls.

轉向經營租賃折舊。 9.56 億英鎊的費用較去年同期大幅增加。這項成長由兩個因素推動：首先，在有機成長和收購特易購的推動下，汽車租賃業務的銷售持續成長。其次，經過一段時間的表現優異後，二手車價格出現下跌，尤其是第四季的下跌。這導致折舊費用正常化，並在第四季度收取額外約 1 億英鎊的不良費用，以在二手車價格下跌的情況下補充我們的前瞻性準備金。

Looking forward, you should, therefore, expect the quarterly charge to be roughly the Q4 run rate level plus organic growth but excluding the GBP 100 million provision restock.

因此，展望未來，您應該預期季度費用大致為第四季度運行率水準加上有機增長，但不包括 1 億英鎊的補充庫存。

Moving on, let me talk about our continued focus on efficiency on Slide 20. Operating costs of GBP 9.1 billion are again in line with guidance. This was up 5% from the prior year, driven by planned investments, the costs associated with new business and inflation. Q4 was impacted by investment, including additional severance and as usual, the bank levy. We'll continue to manage the cost base tightly. We now expect 2024 operating costs to be GBP 9.3 billion, slightly higher than our original expectation. This in turn, is due partly to higher inflation than expected, but mainly due to higher severance payments that will improve efficiency over time.

接下來，讓我談談幻燈片 20 中我們對效率的持續關注。91 億英鎊的營運成本再次符合指引。在計劃投資、新業務相關成本和通貨膨脹的推動下，這一數字比前一年增長了 5%。第四季受到投資的影響，包括額外的遣散費和像往常一樣的銀行稅。我們將繼續嚴格管理成本基礎。我們現在預計 2024 年營運成本為 93 億英鎊，略高於我們原來的預期。這部分是由於通膨高於預期，但主要是由於較高的遣散費將隨著時間的推移而提高效率。

The GBP 9.3 billion is net of achieving our GBP 1.2 billion of cost saves as we continue to successfully absorb material inflationary pressure. It's worth noting here that our operating cost guidance does not include the potential for a net neutral charge of around GBP 100 million. This is driven by a sector-wide change to the way in which the Bank of England charges for supervisory costs. And if it is enacted, this will result in an equivalent offsetting gain in net interest income.

93 億英鎊是我們在繼續成功應對重大通膨壓力的過程中節省的 12 億英鎊成本的淨值。值得注意的是，我們的營運成本指引不包括潛在的約 1 億英鎊的淨中性費用。這是由英格蘭銀行收取監管成本的方式在整個行業範圍內發生的變化所推動的。如果該法案得以實施，這將帶來淨利息收入的同等抵銷收益。

Remediation costs in the year increased to GBP 675 million. This is principally due to the GBP 450 million provision for the potential impact of the FCA review into historical motor finance commissions. This provision reflects estimates for operational and legal costs. It also reflects an assessment of potential redress based upon a range of scenarios.

當年的修復成本增加至 6.75 億英鎊。這主要是由於 FCA 審查歷史汽車金融委員會的潛在影響而撥備了 4.5 億英鎊。該規定反映了營運和法律成本的估計。它也反映了根據一系列情境對潛在補救措施的評估。

To be clear, there remains significant uncertainty and the financial impact could differ materially from the amount that we have provided. We welcome the independent FCA intervention to help ensure that we get to the right outcome.

需要明確的是，仍然存在很大的不確定性，財務影響可能與我們提供的金額有重大差異。我們歡迎 FCA 的獨立幹預，以幫助確保我們取得正確的結果。

Looking now at asset quality on Slide 21. Asset quality remains strong across the group. The impairment charge of GBP 308 million reflects the resilience of our prime customer base and our prudent approach to risk. Alongside, we experienced a significant write-back in Q4.

現在看看幻燈片 21 上的資產品質。整個集團的資產品質仍然強勁。 3.08 億英鎊的減損費用反映了我們主要客戶群的韌性以及我們對風險的審慎態度。同時，我們在第四季經歷了重大的回寫。

Furthermore, the charge includes an MES release of GBP 257 million from forecast adjustments to reflect the slightly improved economic outlook. Excluding the write-back and the updated economic forecast, the asset quality ratio was 29 basis points, which is still in line with our guidance. The Q4 impairment charge was a net credit of GBP 541 million, again, excluding the write-back in MES release, the charge was stable quarter-on-quarter.

此外，該費用還包括 MES 釋放的 2.57 億英鎊預測調整，以反映經濟前景略有改善。剔除回撥更新的經濟預測，資產品質率為29個基點，仍符合我們的指引。第四季減損費用為淨貸方 5.41 億英鎊，不包括 MES 發布的回寫，該費用環比穩定。

The stock of ECL on the balance sheet now stands at GBP 4.3 billion. This remains above prepandemic levels, reflecting uncertainties in the economic outlook. Given the ongoing resilience of the portfolio, we expect the asset quality ratio to be less than 30 basis points in 2024.

ECL 資產負債表上的存量目前為 43 億英鎊。這仍高於疫情前的水平，反映出經濟前景的不確定性。鑑於投資組合的持續彈性，我們預期 2024 年資產品質比率將低於 30 個基點。

Let me now turn to Slide 22 to look at our economic assumptions in more detail. We have made modestly positive revisions in our updated economic outlook. We believe GDP growth will be subdued this year. However, we now expect inflation to fall more sharply. This will allow 3 base rate cuts in 2024 from the current 5.25% level starting in June. Our HPI outlook has improved since our last estimate. We now expect only a slight fall of around 2% this year, helped by a lower rate environment.

現在讓我轉向投影片 22，更詳細地了解我們的經濟假設。我們對最新的經濟前景做出了適度的正面修正。我們認為今年 GDP 成長將放緩。然而，我們現在預計通膨將大幅下降。這將允許從 6 月開始在 2024 年從目前的 5.25% 水平下調 3 次。自上次預測以來，我們的 HPI 前景有所改善。我們現在預計，在較低利率環境的幫助下，今年的經濟成長只會小幅下降 2% 左右。

Meanwhile, unemployment is expected to remain low, peaking at 5.2% in Q4 2024. As usual, we present the full set of economics and associated ECL provisions in our appendix.

同時，失業率預計將保持在較低水平，並在 2024 年第四季達到 5.2% 的峰值。像往常一樣，我們在附錄中介紹了全套經濟學和相關的 ECL 條款。

Moving on, let me turn to Slide 23 to look at our credit performance. Performance across our portfolios continues to be resilient. In particular, (inaudible) arrears in U.K. mortgages were stable throughout 2023, after increasing slightly at the start of the year. As mentioned before, this trend was largely driven by new to arrears in the '06 to '08 legacy book.

接下來，讓我轉到投影片 23 來看看我們的信用表現。我們的投資組合的表現持續保持彈性。特別是，英國抵押貸款的（聽不清楚）拖欠率在年初略有增加後，在 2023 年全年保持穩定。如前所述，這一趨勢主要是由 06 年至 08 年遺留帳簿中的新欠款所推動的。

Meanwhile, arrears and defaults in the unsecured book continue to be very stable, remaining similar to or below prepandemic levels. Alongside, early warning indicators in retail remain reassuring.

同時，無擔保帳簿中的欠款和違約繼續非常穩定，並保持在與大流行前水平相似或低於水平。同時，零售業的預警指標仍然令人放心。

Credit quality in the commercial book also remains resilient. Likewise, early warning indicators are healthy. Our commercial portfolio is high quality. Around 90% of SME lending is secured and more than 80% CIB exposure is to investment-grade clients.

商業帳簿的信用品質也保持彈性。同樣，早期預警指標也很健康。我們的商業投資組合品質很高。大約 90% 的中小企業貸款有擔保，超過 80% 的 CIB 貸款面向投資等級客戶。

Also within the commercial business, our net CRE exposure continues to reduce. It's now around GBP 10 billion with an average interest cover ratio of 3.3x and average indexed LTV of 46%. Meanwhile, the portfolio is well diversified across sectors with only 14% of exposures relating to offices.

同樣在商業業務中，我們的商業房地產淨敞口持續減少。目前約 100 億英鎊，平均利息覆蓋率為 3.3 倍，平均指數 LTV 為 46%。同時，該投資組合在各個行業都實現了高度多元化，其中只有 14% 的風險敞口與辦公室相關。

Moving on, I'll turn to Slide 24 to look at the below-the-line items and TNAV. Consistent with our objectives, there continues to be convergence between underlying and statutory profit. Restructuring costs were GBP 154 million in 2023. This includes integration costs for Embark and Tesco, but it also reflects a significant one-off cost to ensure business continuity following the administration of a key supplier.

接下來，我將轉到投影片 24 來查看線下項目和 TNAV。與我們的目標一致，基本利潤和法定利潤之間繼續趨同。 2023 年的重組成本為 1.54 億英鎊。這包括 Embark 和 Tesco 的整合成本，但也反映了在關鍵供應商管理後確保業務連續性的巨大一次性成本。

Volatility and other of GBP 152 million includes the usual items for fair value unwind and amortization of intangibles. It also includes modest positive volatility, mostly driven by lower rates in the fourth quarter.

1.52 億英鎊的波動性及其他包括無形資產公允價值平倉和攤銷的常見項目。它還包括適度的正波動，主要是由於第四季度利率下降所致。

Statutory profit after tax of GBP 5.5 billion resulted in a return on tangible equity of 15.8% for 2023. Tangible net assets per share at 50.8p were up 4.3p in the year, including 3.6p in Q4. The increase was driven by profit accumulation, a lower share count and a reduction in the cash flow hedge reserve as the yield curve fell.

法定稅後利潤為 55 億英鎊，2023 年有形股本回報率為 15.8%。每股有形淨資產為 50.8 便士，年內增長 4.3 便士，其中第四季度增長 3.6 便士。這一增長是由於利潤累積、股票數量減少以及殖利率曲線下降導致現金流對沖儲備減少所致。

Based on our current economic expectations, we expect further TNAV growth in 2024 and beyond, driven by much of the same factors.

根據我們目前的經濟預期，我們預計 2024 年及以後的 TNAV 將在許多相同因素的推動下進一步成長。

Turning now to capital generation on Slide 25. The group remains highly capital generative. RWAs were up GBP 8.2 billion during 2023. This includes a GBP 5 billion increase relating to CRD IV, of which GBP 2 billion was taken in Q4.

現在轉向幻燈片 25 上的資本產生。該集團仍然具有很高的資本產生能力。 2023 年 RWA 增加了 82 億英鎊。其中包括與 CRD IV 相關的 50 億英鎊增加，其中第四季度增加了 20 億英鎊。

Regulatory pressures were offset by NPV positive balance sheet management, including securitizations. Beyond that, lending and operational impacts increased RWA. The implementation of CRD IV is ongoing. We expect a further RWA increase of about GBP 5 billion, phased between 2024 and 2026, subject, of course, to further PRA review.

監理壓力被包括證券化在內的淨現值正資產負債表管理所抵銷。除此之外，貸款和營運影響增加了 RWA。 CRD IV 的實施正在進行中。我們預計 RWA 將在 2024 年至 2026 年間分階段進一步增加約 50 億英鎊，當然，這取決於 PRA 的進一步審查。

And in this context, we continue to expect RWAs to be within guidance of GBP 220 billion to GBP 225 billion at the end of this year. Lending growth continues alongside active balance sheet management to offset regulatory pressures.

在此背景下，我們繼續預計今年底 RWA 將在 2,200 億英鎊至 2,250 億英鎊的指導範圍內。貸款持續成長，同時積極進行資產負債表管理，以抵銷監管壓力。

Capital generation in year was 223 basis points before 50 basis points of regulatory headwinds. Net of that, capital generation was still strong at 173 basis points, in line with guidance and driven by robust profitability. The impact of the higher remediation charge in Q4 in this context was more than offset by the one-off write-back in the same period.

在受到監理阻力 50 個基點之前，當年的資本產生量為 223 個基點。扣除此因素後，資本產生仍然強勁，達到 173 個基點，符合指引並受到強勁獲利能力的推動。在這種情況下，第四季較高的補救費用的影響被同期的一次性沖銷所抵消。

The group's strong capital position and capital generation enables the Board to announce a final ordinary dividend of 1.84p per share, making a total of 2.76p. The dividend is up 15% on 2022. And alongside a buyback program of GBP 2 billion means the group will distribute a total of up to GBP 3.8 billion. This, as you know, is around 14% of our current market cap.

該集團強大的資本狀況和資本產生能力使董事會能夠宣布每股 1.84 便士的末期普通股息，總計 2.76 便士。 2022 年股息將增加 15%。加上 20 億英鎊的回購計劃，意味著該集團將分配總計高達 38 億英鎊的股息。如您所知，這約占我們當前市值的 14%。

As shown today, the Board is committed to a progressive and sustainable dividend and an additional excess capital distributions. It's worth noting that in Q4, we also made a GBP 250 million further pension contribution. This closes off the remainder of the deficit and means there will be no further deficit contributions in the current triennial period till December 2025.

正如今天所表明的，董事會致力於漸進和可持續的股息以及額外的超額資本分配。值得注意的是，第四季我們也追加了2.5億英鎊的退休金繳款。這將消除剩餘的赤字，這意味著在當前三年期至 2025 年 12 月之前將不再有進一步的赤字貢獻。

Our year-end pro forma CET1 ratio of 13.7% remains strong. As you know, the Board continually reviews the appropriate capital target for the group. Based on regulatory, economic and business considerations, including our risk profile, we've now determined that 13% CET1 is the right target. As before, our target continues to include a management buffer of 1%.

我們的年底預計 CET1 比率仍保持在 13.7% 的強勁水平。如您所知，董事會不斷審查集團適當的資本目標。基於監管、經濟和商業考慮，包括我們的風險狀況，我們現在確定 13% CET1 是正確的目標。和以前一樣，我們的目標仍然包括 1% 的管理緩衝。

To be clear, this change in target is a positive development, indicating the strength of our group. In order to manage risks and distributions in an orderly way, we expect to pay down to circa 13% by the end of 2026. This year, we expect capital generation of around 175 basis points, as previously guided.

需要明確的是，這一目標的改變是一個積極的發展，表明了我們集團的實力。為了有序地管理風險和分配，我們預計在 2026 年底將支付率降低至 13% 左右。根據先前的指導，今年我們預計資本產生約為 175 個基點。

Looking further forward, we continue to expect capital generation to be greater than 200 basis points by 2026.

展望未來，我們繼續預期到 2026 年資本生成將超過 200 個基點。

So let me bring this together on Slide 26. We are, as Charlie said, progressing well towards our ambition of generating higher, more sustainable returns for shareholders. For 2024, we now expect the margin to be greater than 290 basis points. Operating costs to be around GBP 9.3 billion and the asset quality ratio to be less than 30 basis points. We also continue to expect the return on tangible equity to be circa 13%, RWAs to be between GBP 220 billion and GBP 225 billion, capital generation to be around 175 basis points and to pay down to a 13.5% CET1 ratio.

因此，讓我在投影片 26 上將這些內容匯總起來。正如查理所說，我們正在朝著為股東創造更高、更永續回報的目標邁進。對於 2024 年，我們現在預計利潤率將超過 290 個基點。營運成本約93億英鎊，資產品質比率低於30個基點。我們也繼續預期有形股本回報率約為 13%，RWA 將在 2,200 億英鎊至 2,250 億英鎊之間，資本產生將在 175 個基點左右，CET1 比率將降至 13.5%。

In the medium term, we remain confident in delivering our vision of higher, more sustainable returns by 2026. We are retaining our medium-term targets, specifically, cost-to-income ratio to be below 50%. Return on tangible equity to be greater than 15% and capital generation to be greater than 200 basis points. In addition, and as mentioned, we now expect to pay down to a circa 13% CET1 ratio by the end of 2026.

從中期來看，我們仍然有信心在 2026 年實現更高、更永續回報的願景。我們將維持中期目標，特別是成本收入比低於 50%。有形股本回報率高於 15%，資本產生高於 200 個基點。此外，如前所述，我們現在預計在 2026 年底將 CET1 比例降低至約 13%。

In sum, we look forward to continuing to deliver for our shareholders. That concludes my comments. Thank you very much for listening this morning. I'll now hand back to Charlie to finish up.

總而言之，我們期待繼續為股東提供服務。我的評論到此結束。非常感謝您今天早上的收聽。我現在將交還給查理完成。

Many thanks, William. So to summarize, the group delivered a strong performance in 2023, in line with expectations that we've laid out, aligned to our purpose of helping Britain prosper, we have continued to proactively support customers and meet our broader societal objectives whilst successfully executing against our strategic plans.

非常感謝，威廉。總而言之，該集團在 2023 年取得了強勁的業績，符合我們設定的期望，符合我們幫助英國繁榮的目標，我們繼續積極支持客戶並實現更廣泛的社會目標，同時成功執行我們的戰略計劃。

In addition, despite the external headwinds and uncertainty we faced in 2023, we've taken actions to deliver robust financials and increased capital returns. We remain on track to meet our 2024 and 2026 strategic targets, which will support the delivery of higher, more sustainable returns and capital generation.

此外，儘管我們在 2023 年面臨外部阻力和不確定性，但我們已採取行動實現穩健的財務狀況並提高資本回報。我們仍有望實現 2024 年和 2026 年的策略目標，這將支持實現更高、更永續的回報和資本產生。

Thank you very much for listening. That concludes our presentation, and I'll hand over to Douglas, who will lead the Q&A. Douglas?

非常感謝您的聆聽。我們的演講到此結束，接下來我將把時間交給 Douglas，他將主持問答環節。道格拉斯？

Thank you, Charlie. So moving to questions. (Operator Instructions) Okay. So let's begin. Let's start with Alvaro.

謝謝你，查理。現在開始提問。 （操作員指示）好的。那麼就讓我們開始吧。讓我們從阿爾瓦羅開始。

Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley. I've got a question on motor finance and one on margins. On motor finance, I realize there's still a lot of uncertainty, as you pointed out, William, but can you help us reconcile why you think GBP 450 million is enough? I realize some estimates out there point to GBP 1.5 billion, GBP 2 billion.

摩根士丹利的阿爾瓦羅·塞拉諾。我有一個關於汽車金融的問題和一個關於利潤的問題。在汽車金融方面，我意識到仍然存在許多不確定性，正如您所指出的，William，但是您能否幫助我們協調為什麼您認為 4.5 億英鎊就足夠了？我意識到一些估計指向 15 億英鎊、20 億英鎊。

And -- so what's the difference in view there? And also, how does that fit in with the Board approving the GBP 2 billion share buyback and basically the lower capital ratio that the bank needs to run with? How can you square that?

而且──那麼觀點有什麼不同呢？此外，這與董事會批准 20 億英鎊股票回購以及銀行營運所需的較低資本比率有何關係？你怎麼能把它平方呢？

And then the second question on NIM. How do you see the year progressing? You previously talked about a trough in margins in Q1, Q2, is that still the case? And you pointed out you expect the mix shift in deposits to continue. There's central bank data points to more stability, so why use that still expecting that mix of change?

然後是關於NIM的第二個問題。您如何看待這一年的進展？您之前談到第一季、第二季利潤率出現低谷，現在仍然如此嗎？您指出，您預計存款的混合變化將持續下去。央行數據顯示更加穩定，那麼為什麼還要使用這些數據來期待這種變化？

Sure. Thanks, Alvaro. Shall I take those, Charlie?

當然。謝謝，阿爾瓦羅。我可以拿走那些嗎，查理？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question, Alvaro. I'll take them in turn. First of all, on the motor point. As you know, in this context, as acknowledged by the FCA, the extent of misconduct and customer loss, if any, remains unclear. We believe that we have complied with all the relevant regulations in the relevant dates. So that's the backdrop.

謝謝你的提問，阿爾瓦羅。我會依序帶他們去。首先，關於電機點。如您所知，在這種情況下，正如 FCA 所承認的那樣，不當行為和客戶損​​失（如果有）的程度仍不清楚。我們相信我們在相關日期遵守了所有相關規定。這就是背景。

In the meantime, we've had 1 financial ombudsman judgment, and we've had a series of county court cases, most of which have actually decided in our favor. When we look at the review therefore, we welcome it in order to get some clarity on the situation.

同時，我們已經做出了一項金融監察員判決，並且我們已經受理了一系列縣法院案件，其中大多數實際上都做出了對我們有利的判決。因此，當我們查看審查時，我們對此表示歡迎，以便澄清情況。

You asked about the GBP 450 million provision. In that context, there are 2 components to the GBP 450 million provision. One is operational and legal expenses and the other is redress. Both of those 2 are encompassed within the GBP 450 million. The redress is built upon a variety of scenarios, various scenarios, which in turn are built upon various inputs to those scenarios.

你問及4.5億英鎊的撥款。在這種情況下，4.5 億英鎊的撥款有兩個組成部分。一是營運和法律費用，二是補救費用。這兩項均包含在 4.5 億英鎊之內。補救措施是建立在各種場景的基礎上的，各種場景又是建立在這些場景的各種輸入的基礎上的。

So for example, time periods, how far back does this go? 2007 being 1 example, but other time periods could be taken into consideration. Likewise, what are the commission models that have taken into account? Likewise, what is the relevant benchmark for compensation should redress arise? Should it be a 0 commission structure or should it be a reasonable commission structure?

例如，時間段，這可以追溯到多遠以前？ 2007 年是一個例子，但也可以考慮其他時間段。同樣，考慮了哪些佣金模式？同樣，應採取補救措施的相關賠償基準是什麼？應該是0佣金結構還是合理的佣金結構？

Likewise, what type of redress measure might the FCA want us to consider? Is it proactive or is it reactive, response rates, not hold rates. These are all variables that feed into the various scenarios that we've constructed off the back of which we have positioned our GBP 450 million provision.

同樣，FCA 可能希望我們考慮哪種類型的補救措施？是主動的還是被動的，回應率，而不是保留率。這些都是影響我們建構的各種情景的變量，我們在此基礎上製定了 4.5 億英鎊的撥款。

There are, as you can see from my comments, quite a few uncertainties, and we'll obviously update on those as the situation develops. But I would note that when you consider it against other numbers that might be out there, there are a number of quite important dependencies. So for example, whether it is a 0 commission number that is taken as a benchmark for any potential address, whether it is a reasonable rate of commission makes a big difference to the ultimate provision that might be necessary for redress, cutting it by more than 50%, for example.

正如您從我的評論中看到的那樣，存在相當多的不確定性，我們顯然會隨著情況的發展而更新這些不確定性。但我要指出的是，當您將其與可能存在的其他數字進行比較時，會發現存在許多非常重要的依賴。例如，是否將 0 佣金數字作為任何潛在地址的基準，是否合理的佣金率，都會對補救可能需要的最終條款產生很大影響，將其削減超過例如，50%。

So there are some important dependencies in the numbers that are out there. Secondly, you asked about how that all squares with the Board approving the GBP 2 billion buyback and indeed, the capital ratio reduction to 13% by 2026. I would say both are an expression of the Board's confidence in the business. We'll talk more about it, I'm sure, but when we've looked at both and in particular, when we've looked at capital ratios, we've looked at both the regulatory outlook, we've looked at the business risk reduction that has been embarked on over the last several years and indeed, we've looked at retaining our buffer for uncertain economics.

因此，現有的數字存在一些重要的依賴性。其次，您詢問董事會如何批准 20 億英鎊的回購，以及在 2026 年將資本比率降低至 13%。我想說，這兩者都反映了董事會對業務的信心。我相信我們會更多地討論這個問題，但是當我們研究了這兩個方面，特別是當我們研究了資本比率時，我們研究了監管前景，我們研究了過去幾年我們一直致力於降低業務風險，事實上，我們一直在考慮為不確定的經濟狀況保留緩衝。

And all of that adds up to the 13% CET1 target ambition that we have. So both of those 2, the GBP 2 billion and the target reduction of 13% are expressions of confidence in the business.

所有這些加起來就是我們的 13% CET1 目標雄心。因此，20 億英鎊和削減 13% 的目標這兩個數字都表達了對業務的信心。

Moving on, you asked about the margin. The margin, as you know, we have committed to is circa -- is greater than 290 in the course of 2024. When we look at the performance in 2023, we delivered on guidance greater than 310, delivered at 311. But the relevant number is the quarter 4 closing rate of around 298.

接下來，您詢問了保證金。如您所知，我們承諾的利潤率在 2024 年期間大約大於 290。當我們查看 2023 年的業績時，我們提供的指導值大於 310，實際交付值為 311。但相關數字第四季收盤率約為298。

So when we look at the trajectory going into 2024, we expect what will very likely be a gentle decline in the first half of 2024. And I'd underline the word gentle, nothing like what we saw in Q4. And then we expect that to gently increase in the second half of Q4, certainly -- in the second half of 2024 certainly by the end of the year, certainly by Q4.

因此，當我們審視進入 2024 年的軌跡時，我們預計 2024 年上半年很可能會出現溫和下降。我會強調「溫和」這個詞，與我們在第四季度看到的情況完全不同。然後，我們預計這一數字將在第四季下半年溫和成長，當然在 2024 年下半年，當然到今年年底，當然到第四季。

So what you're seeing, therefore, is a closing rate -- closing margin of 298 in Q4 of '23, and expectation for 2024 that we will see a gentle decline in the first half, a gentle incline in the second half as I say, certainly realized by Q4, if not before.

因此，你看到的是收盤率——23 年第四季的收盤利潤率為 298，預計 2024 年我們將看到上半年溫和下降，下半年溫和上升。可以說，如果不是之前的話，肯定會在第四季實現。

What's going on kind of underneath the hood there, a couple of points to make. One is we do expect to see, as your question alluded to, Alvaro, some continued deposit churn over the course of the year. Two is, we do expect the mortgage refinancing headwind to still be there over the course of this year. But in both cases, in deposits and in mortgages, we expect each of those headwinds to gradually abate over the course of the year.

幕後到底發生了什麼，有幾點需要說明。其中之一是，正如您的問題所提到的，阿爾瓦羅，我們確實預計在這一年中會出現一些持續的存款流失。二是，我們確實預計抵押貸款再融資的逆風在今年仍然存在。但在存款和抵押貸款這兩種情況下，我們預期這些不利因素將在一年內逐漸減弱。

And we can talk more about the reasons for that, but they are at least, in the mortgage case, very mechanical, and then deposit case, rely upon the kind of rates trajectory, the rates outlook that we've described to you.

我們可以更多地談論其原因，但至少在抵押貸款案例中，它們非常機械，然後是存款案例，依賴我們向您描述的利率軌跡和利率前景。

And then finally, offset against that is the structural hedge, which cumulatively gathers pace during the course of the year, and all of that nets out to greater than 290 for the 2024 margin outlook.

最後，抵消這一影響的是結構性對沖，該結構性對沖在這一年中不斷加快步伐，所有這些因素使 2024 年的利潤率前景超過 290。

Well, let's take the next question from Joe.

好吧，讓我們來回答喬的下一個問題。

Joe Dickerson from Jefferies. Two things from me. First, on the severance costs that you have. Could you try to quantify those or express them in materiality terms? And then is this just a present part of your cost base? Or at some point, will this abate and become a tailwind on the cost base? That's question number one.

來自傑富瑞集團的喬·迪克森。我的兩件事。首先，關於您的遣散費。您能否嘗試量化這些或用重要性術語來表達它們？那麼這只是您成本基礎的當前部分嗎？或者在某個時候，這種情況會減弱並成為成本基礎的動力嗎？這是第一個問題。

And then number two, just on the cash flow hedge reserve. I think off the top of my head looking this morning, it's about GBP 3.8 billion. How do we think about the sensitivity around that and how that comes back? Because obviously, the 15% return on tangible number by '26 is very different if the TNAV is that much higher. And I'm not sure that TheStreet estimates have that quite right.

然後是第二點，就是現金流對沖儲備。今天早上我猛然一看，大約是 38 億英鎊。我們如何看待這方面的敏感度以及它如何回歸？因為顯然，如果 TNAV 高得多，那麼到 26 年，有形數字的 15% 回報率就會非常不同。我不確定 TheStreet 的估計是否完全正確。

Yes. Thanks, Joe. Just to give you a couple of numbers on each of those. Severance costs, first of all. We always have an allowance for severance costs within our overall cost budgets. We had it in 2023, we again have it in 2024. What is different is that in the final quarter of 2023, we actually took a bit more severance than we normally would do. And likewise, when we head into 2024, the same is going to be true.

是的。謝謝，喬。只是為您提供每個方面的幾個數字。首先是遣散費。我們的整體成本預算中始終有遣散費補貼。我們在 2023 年有過，在 2024 年再次有過。不同的是，在 2023 年最後一個季度，我們實際上比平常多拿了一點遣散費。同樣，當我們進入 2024 年時，情況也會如此。

Now in 2023, we were able to offset that against various other mitigants within our overall cost profile. In 2024, it's tougher to do so again. And that's the reason why we've moved from the GBP 9.2 billion that we described to you before as the '24 cost guidance to GBP 9.3 billion that we're describing to you today.

現在到了 2023 年，我們能夠在整體成本概況中抵銷其他各種緩解措施。 2024 年，再次做到這一點會更加困難。這就是為什麼我們從之前向您描述的 24 世紀成本指引中的 92 億英鎊改為我們今天向您描述的 93 億英鎊。

So I won't put a precise number on severance, but that is the principal driver between GBP 9.2 billion to GBP 9.3 billion. It's increased severance above and beyond our regular severance budgets. It's worth saying before leaving the severance topic that, as you can imagine, we subject that to pretty severe business case tests. And so any severance that we deploy, we expect to get benefits out of it.

因此，我不會給出遣散費的具體數字，但這是 92 億英鎊至 93 億英鎊之間的主要驅動因素。遣散費的增加超出了我們的常規遣散費預算。在離開遣散費主題之前值得一提的是，正如您可以想像的那樣，我們對此進行了相當嚴格的業務案例測試。因此，我們部署的任何遣散費，我們都希望從中獲得好處。

Now you don't typically realize those full benefits in year. You would expect to see them in the years thereafter. But as you know, a big part of our story is around operating leverage within the business. As the headwinds abate as strategic initiatives come in, we hope to deliver a flatter cost base going forward. And that in line with lower investment levels leads us to predict the returns that we're predicting for 2026 and have, as I say, full confidence in.

現在，您通常無法在一年內實現這些全部好處。你會期望在之後的幾年裡見到他們。但如您所知，我們故事的很大一部分是圍繞企業內部的營運槓桿。隨著策略措施的出台，不利因素逐漸減弱，我們希望未來能實現更平穩的成本基礎。這與較低的投資水平一致，使我們能夠預測 2026 年的回報，正如我所說，我們對此充滿信心。

So the severance has business cases. The business cases are relied to the profile of operating leverage that we expect to deliver over the course of '25 and in particular, in 2026.

所以遣散費有商業理由。這些業務案例依賴我們預計在 25 年（特別是 2026 年）期間交付的營運槓桿概況。

Cash flow hedge reserves, you mentioned. You're right, cash flow hedge reserve is around GBP 3.8 billion right now. The pace of it or the movement, I should say, in the cash flow hedge reserve is, as you know, very interest rate dependent. There are 2 things that go on there. One is the valuation of the existing stock of derivatives against which structural hedge is positioned.

您提到了現金流對沖儲備。你是對的，現金流對沖儲備目前約為 38 億英鎊。我應該說，現金流對沖儲備的節奏或變動非常依賴利率。那裡發生了兩件事。一是結構性避險所針對的現有衍生性商品存量的估值。

And then second is, as the derivatives mature, I mentioned GBP 40 billion of structural hedge maturities this year. So you get a repricing on a mark-to-market basis of new derivatives that come in. Those 2 compress the structural hedge -- sorry, compress the cash flow hedge reserve and indeed lead to TNAV growth.

其次，隨著衍生性商品的成熟，我提到今年有 400 億英鎊的結構性避險到期。因此，你可以對新推出的衍生品按市值計價重新定價。這兩者壓縮了結構性對沖——抱歉，壓縮了現金流對沖儲備，確實導致了 TNAV 增長。

We saw a bit of that through the course of '23. We saw a good part of it in the course of Q4 of '23. We do expect to see more of it in the course of '24. I think we've given a PV01 of around GBP 12 million or thereabouts, 1 basis point move leading to about GBP 12 million cash flow hedge reserve adjustment. That, in turn, leads to expected TNAV growth over the course of the year.

我們在 23 年的過程中看到了一些這樣的情況。我們在 23 年第四季看到了其中的很大一部分。我們確實希望在 24 年期間看到更多這樣的情況。我認為我們已經給出了約 1200 萬英鎊左右的 PV01，1 個基點的變動導致約 1200 萬英鎊的現金流對沖準備金調整。這反過來又導致了全年預期的 TNAV 成長。

We ended up '23 probably a touch higher than we expected to end it up on TNAV per share. That will carry through into TNAV per share build for cash flow hedge reserve reasons, but also for the other reasons I mentioned in my comments, over the course of '24.

我們最終的 23 年每股 TNAV 可能比我們預期的要高一些。出於現金流對沖儲備的原因以及我在評論中提到的其他原因，這將在 24 年期間納入每股 TNAV 的構建中。

Joe, just one thing on the severance because obviously, William covered it well. We should expect an ongoing baseline severance, as you say. Why an increase this year, which is kind of your question? I think it's because as we've got into the strategy, we've seen additional opportunities for efficiency and to provide reinvestment into areas that are going to drive the growth. So it's really a demonstration of our confidence around what we're doing. And you should expect the baseline level, but this is really a demonstration of this year. We think we can do a bit more.

喬，只是關於遣散費的一件事，因為顯然，威廉很好地涵蓋了它。正如你所說，我們應該預期持續的基線遣散費。為什麼今年會增加，這是您的問題嗎？我認為這是因為當我們制定策略時，我們看到了額外的提高效率的機會，並為將推動成長的領域提供再投資。所以這確實表明了我們對我們正在做的事情的信心。你應該期待基線水平，但這確實是今年的一個示範。我們認為我們可以做得更多。

Let's move to the front row now. Rohith.

現在我們到前排吧。羅希斯。

I had a couple, please. The first, actually, just sort of following on from the cash flow hedge question. But just CET1, the move to 13%. Can you give us a little bit more in terms of your thinking behind that? And then how also that factors into the TNAV for 2026, presumably that takes about GBP 1 billion off, so you've got cash flow hedge build and then you've got GBP 1 billion less from a lower CET1 ratio.

我有一對，拜託。實際上，第一個問題只是現金流對沖問題的後續。但僅僅 CET1，就上升到了 13%。您能給我們更多關於您背後的想法嗎？然後，這也是如何影響 2026 年 TNAV 的因素，大概會減少約 10 億英鎊，因此您可以建立現金流對沖，然後透過較低的 CET1 比率可以減少 10 億英鎊。

And then how in turn that feeds into greater than 15% RoTE? My read of your guidance is you haven't changed the -- more than 200 basis points capital generation. So it's not a comment on earnings. It's just a change to the denominator. That was the first question. And then the second question, just on average interest-earning assets. So at 453 in Q4, 450 for 2024 on average. What was the jump-off point for '23 and what are the headwinds in '24, please?

那麼這又是如何讓 RoTE 超過 15% 的呢？我讀到的指導意見是，你沒有改變超過 200 個基點的資本產生。所以這不是對收益的評論。這只是分母的變化。這是第一個問題。然後是第二個問題，平均生息資產。因此，第四季為 453 個，2024 年平均為 450 個。請問 23 年的起點是什麼？24 年的阻力是什麼？

Yes. Thanks, Rohith. Rohith, there's sort of 3 questions there in a way, actually. CET1 reductions, first of all, it's worth me just starting off with the point the CET1 target ratio from 13.5% to 13% is a very positive sign for the business. It's a positive sign, we believe, for all stakeholders, clearly for shareholders but also for customers. It allows us to price product, for example, more efficiently.

是的。謝謝，羅希斯。 Rohith，實際上，在某種程度上存在 3 個問題。 CET1 降低，首先，值得我一開始就認為 CET1 目標比率從 13.5% 降至 13% 對於企業來說是一個非常積極的信號。我們相信，這對所有利害關係人來說都是一個正面的訊號，顯然對股東來說也是如此，對客戶來說也是如此。例如，它使我們能夠更有效地為產品定價。

Why have we gone there? As you know, the Board when it looks at the target CET1 ratio looks at what capital is required to operate the business, to grow the business and to absorb stresses the business might encounter. When we've looked at the business, we've looked at 3 things.

我們為什麼要去那裡？如您所知，董事會在考慮目標 CET1 比率時會考慮營運業務、發展業務和吸收業務可能遇到的壓力所需的資本。當我們審視業務時，我們審視了三件事。

One is business risk reduction. As you'll be aware, over the course of the last 10 years-or-so, but particularly in the last 5 years, this business has materially reduced the risk that it's exposed to. You can see that evidence in the CRE exposure, for example, I made a comment in my earlier script.

一是降低經營風險。如您所知，在過去 10 年左右的時間裡，尤其是在過去 5 年裡，該業務大大降低了其面臨的風險。你可以在 CRE 曝光中看到這些證據，例如，我在先前的腳本中發表了評論。

You can see that evidenced in the runoff of the legacy mortgage portfolios, for example. You can see that evidenced in terms of some of the metrics around the business, whether it's LTVs, interest cover ratios, secured backing for the SME portfolio and so forth.

例如，您可以在遺留抵押貸款投資組合的流失中看到這一點。您可以看到圍繞業務的一些指標證明了這一點，無論是生命週期價值、利息覆蓋率、中小企業投資組合的安全支援等等。

And you can also see it manifested in regulatory assessments, [e.g:] the ACS performance from about a year ago. So significant risk in business -- significant reduction in business risk as evidenced by the statistics that we will give you, but also testified to by things like the ACS test.

您還可以看到它在監管評估中得到體現，[例如：]大約一年前的 ACS 表現。業務風險如此之大——業務風險顯著降低，我們將向您提供的統計數據證明了這一點，而且 ACS 測試等也證明了這一點。

Secondly, the regulatory uncertainties, we believe have diminished. We -- as we look forward, we can see more or less the outlines of CRD IV. We talked about that in the context of our earlier comments. We can see more or less the outlines of Basel 3.1. We can also see our Pillar 2A coming down, as you've seen, this is a public number.

其次，我們認為監管的不確定性已經減少。當我們展望未來時，我們或多或少可以看到 CRD IV 的輪廓。我們在之前的評論中談到了這一點。我們或多或少可以看到巴塞爾3.1的輪廓。我們還可以看到我們的第 2A 支柱正在下降，正如您所看到的，這是一個公眾號。

And so therefore, the regulatory uncertainties, we think are starting to reduce. And certainly, our visibility as to regulatory outcomes is greater than it was a year ago also. And then finally, of course, macro remains uncertain. We all know about that. But that's why we've kept the 1% buffer in our overall CET1 target, even when we move to the 13% outlook.

因此，我們認為監管的不確定性正在開始減少。當然，我們對監管結果的了解也比一年前更高。最後，當然，宏觀經濟仍然不確定。我們都知道這一點。但這就是為什麼我們在整體 CET1 目標中保留 1% 的緩衝，即使我們將前景轉向 13%。

So as a result, as we adopt the 13% target, as said, we see it as a very positive sign for all stakeholders an expression of confidence in the overall business position, backed up by the evidence of what we think is going on in the regulatory space.

因此，正如我們所說，當我們採用13% 的目標時，我們認為這對所有利害關係人來說是一個非常積極的信號，表達了對整體業務狀況的信心，並得到了我們認為正在發生的事情的證據的支持。監管空間。

When you look at 2026, as you say, we do expect the cash flow hedge reserves to further reduce as it were to build the TNAV in the business. And that is one of the factors driving TNAV. But driving TNAV or other factors, including profit add-ons, for example, including pension build, for example. And driving TNAV per share is also the net of the buyback, which, as you've seen today, is a GBP 2 billion addition. And as long as we're buying shares below book, that's going to contribute to a constructive TNAV per share outlook.

當你展望 2026 年時，正如你所說，我們確實預期現金流對沖儲備將進一步減少，因為它是為了建立業務中的 TNAV。這是驅動 TNAV 的因素之一。但推動 TNAV 或其他因素，包括利潤附加，例如退休金建設。推動每股 TNAV 的也是回購淨值，正如您今天所看到的，回購淨值增加了 20 億英鎊。只要我們以低於帳面價值的價格購買股票，就將有助於建立建設性的每股 TNAV 前景。

So all of that is positive. But as you say, the key point, Rohith, is that our greater than 15% RoTE outlook is not dependent upon the 13% CET1 target shift. Had we stuck with 13.5% CET1 as a target, our guidance for you in terms of greater than 200 basis points in terms of greater than 15% RoTE outlook in 2026 would have been exactly the same.

所以所有這些都是積極的。但正如您所說，Rohith，關鍵的一點是，我們超過 15% 的 RoTE 前景並不依賴 13% CET1 的目標轉變。如果我們堅持將 13.5% CET1 作為目標，那麼我們為您提供的 2026 年 RoTE 前景超過 200 個基點的指導將完全相同。

All this does is add to the extent that we were able to achieve RoTE in excess of 15%. But the greater than 15% would have stood whether we adopted the 13% or not.

所有這些都使我們能夠實現超過 15% 的 RoTE。但無論我們是否採用 13%，超過 15% 的比例都會保持不變。

The final point that you mentioned, Rohith, is in relation to AIEAs. And just to be clear there, our guidance on AIEAs is greater than GBP 450 billion. That is, as I said in my comments, a touch down on 2023.

Rohith，您提到的最後一點與 AIEA 有關。需要明確的是，我們對 AIEA 的指導超過 4500 億英鎊。正如我在評論中所說，這就是 2023 年的觸底。

There's a couple of things going on there. One is organic business growth. So we do expect the organic business to grow in terms of our core franchise. So on the retail side, on the commercial side, we expect balances to grow. There are 2 mitigants to that.

那裡發生了一些事情。一是業務有機成長。因此，我們確實期望有機業務在我們的核心特許經營方面能夠成長。因此，在零售方面，在商業方面，我們預計餘額將會成長。有兩個緩解措施。

One is around the repayment of bounce back loans, in particular, in respect to the commercial business, most obviously in the BCB or SME franchise. And then 2 is, as you've seen over the course of '23, the back book within mortgages will continue to pay off. The SVR book is likely to come down. But to be clear, the ongoing look-forward business, whether it's the open mortgage book, or whether it's corporate and institutional balances, for example, those will grow.

一是圍繞反彈貸款的償還，特別是在商業業務方面，最明顯的是BCB或中小企業特許經營權。然後 2，正如您在 23 年所看到的那樣，抵押貸款中的欠帳將繼續得到回報。 SVR書很可能會下來。但需要明確的是，正在進行的前瞻性業務，無論是開放式抵押貸款帳簿，還是企業和機構餘額，都將成長。

And I'll make a final comment, which is our guidance is, as I said, greater than GBP 450 billion AIEAs, it is greater than both because that's the way that we saw it as of December 31, but as testified to by slightly stronger markets that we've seen open up during the course of January and so far in February. So it's quite deliberately greater than GBP 450 billion.

我將做出最後的評論，正如我所說，我們的指導大於 4500 億英鎊的 AIEA，它大於兩者，因為這是我們截至 12 月 31 日的看法，但正如我們在一月份和二月份迄今為止看到的市場走強。所以這個數字是故意大於 4500 億英鎊的。

Let's have the next question.

我們來問下一個問題。

It's [Parlie] from KBW. Just -- the first one is just going back to the motor. I know obviously, there's lots of uncertainty within that. But can I just clarify whether you think that the Land Rover portfolio, the captive book is part of the review?

我是 KBW 的[Parlie]。只是——第一個只是回到馬達。我顯然知道，其中存在著許多不確定性。但我能否澄清一下，您是否認為路虎產品組合、專屬書籍是評論的一部分？

And secondly, again, I know the GBP 450 million, we have all sorts of assumptions in it. But broadly speaking, how is the split between the redress and the operational cost? Because obviously, the data going back to 2007, there's a lot of records that may not be around. So just what are you thinking about the split between the 2?

其次，我知道 4.5 億英鎊，我們有各種各樣的假設。但從廣義上講，賠償和營運成本之間如何分配？因為很明顯，從 2007 年的數據來看，有很多記錄可能不存在。那麼您對兩者之間的分歧有何看法？

And then I guess, secondly, going back to deposit. Do you have a sense as to what's driving the slowdown in the churn in deposits. In Q4, is it slowing because it's typically a higher spend season, so Christmas and everything?

然後我想，其次，回到存款。您是否了解是什麼原因導致存款流失速度放緩？第四季度，成長放緩是否是因為通常是消費較高的季節，例如聖誕節等？

Or is it because there was lack of a rate rise effectively and so just less prompts? And in a falling rate environment, would you see that slow more or less because if rates were to come down, maybe people want to lock in rates sooner rather than later, is that a possibility?

還是因為缺乏有效的升息，所以只是提示較少？在利率下降的環境中，您是否會看到這種速度或多或少地放緩，因為如果利率下降，也許人們希望儘早鎖定利率，而不是稍後鎖定利率，這有可能嗎？

And I guess, since we're talking about assumptions on the NIM, just noticing that you are factoring 3 rate cuts and one of your peers is factoring 5. So if that were to happen, just how would that greater than 290 evolve?

我想，既然我們正在談論 NIM 的假設，只是注意到您正在考慮 3 次降息，而您的一位同行正在考慮 5 次降息。因此，如果發生這種情況，那麼大於 290 的數字將如何演變？

Sure. Do you want to take the first one? I'll give you a rest on the part of the second one and then you can talk about the 290.

當然。你想拿第一個嗎？我會讓你在第二部分休息一下，然後你可以談論290。

Sure. Thank you, (inaudible) for the question. First one on Motor, a couple of points that you raised there. One is Land Rover exposure. The second is the split between redress and operational costs. You're right, Land Rover has been a significant part of our portfolio for a while.

當然。謝謝（聽不清楚）提出的問題。第一個是關於 Motor 的，您在那裡提出了幾點。一是路虎曝光。第二個是補救成本和營運成本之間的分攤。您是對的，路虎一段時間以來一直是我們產品組合的重要組成部分。

The -- I shan't comment on any kind of numerical aspect of that, but it is probably fair to say that Land Rover, both because it's new cars and because you might imagine, therefore, there's less scope to discretionary movements within pricing, perhaps has lower redress consequences if that is the direction that the FCA review goes in than other aspects.

- 我不會對此進行任何數字方面的評論，但可以公平地說，路虎，既因為它是新車，也因為你可能會想像，因此，定價方面的自由裁量權變動的範圍較小，如果這是FCA 審查的方向，那麼補救後果可能比其他方面要低。

But I would be just careful about how much you read into that for the GBP 450 million provision because as I was mentioned earlier on, we've taken a variety of scenarios in the context of our GBP 450 million. Second, you asked about redress versus operational costs. We are not specifying exactly how that GBP 450 million is split. The only comment I'll make, is that there is a decent chunk of each within that overall GBP 450 million. Charlie, do you want to...

但我會小心你對 4.5 億英鎊準備金的解讀程度，因為正如我之前提到的，我們在 4.5 億英鎊的背景下採取了各種方案。其次，您詢問了賠償與營運成本的問題。我們沒有具體說明這 4.5 億英鎊如何分配。我要說的唯一評論是，在 4.5 億英鎊的總金額中，每一項都佔有相當大的份額。查理，你想...

Great. Yes, let me have a go to deposit channel, and you can talk about the impact on NIM of rate rises. So first of all, as you say, this is obviously a hugely important part of the development through Q4 and into this year. What you saw as you'll recall, is a lower change in our retail customer deposits, which is obviously the most important deposit base for the bank.

偉大的。是的，我去存款頻道，你可以談談升息對淨利差的影響。首先，正如您所說，這顯然是第四季度和今年發展的一個非常重要的部分。您會記得，我們​​的零售客戶存款變化較低，這顯然是銀行最重要的存款基礎。

So we saw a slowdown in Q4. And as you saw across the year, actually relative to other high street banks, we performed materially better on that churn, and we were winning in the savings market, which is exactly what we wanted to try and do with our broader propositions around our mass affluent base. So it was on a relative basis, good performance.

所以我們在第四季看到了放緩。正如您在這一年中所看到的，實際上相對於其他商業街銀行，我們在客戶流失方面的表現要好得多，並且我們在儲蓄市場上取得了勝利，這正是我們想要圍繞我們的大眾更廣泛的主張嘗試和做的事情富裕基地。所以相對而言，它的表現還是不錯的。

We think what we saw in Q4 is what we would expect. There were 2 dynamics going on. First of all, we've obviously seen the shifts out of PCAs at the higher part of the yield curve or the increase in where time deposits were priced up above 6% in the middle of last summer, which is where the biggest gap was.

我們認為第四季的情況正是我們所期望的。有兩種動態正在發生。首先，我們明顯看到PCA在殖利率曲線的較高部分發生了變化，或者在去年夏天中旬定期存款定價超過6%，這是最大的差距。

We've seen a significant amount of moves. And so you'd expect that to slow down as you get further into the rate cycle, number one. Number two, obviously, the gap between time deposits and then instant access deposits has narrowed. And so people can actually get the value from liquidity, which we know they value without having to lock up their deposits for 12 months or 24 months.

我們已經看到了大量的舉措。因此，隨著你進一步進入利率週期，你會預期這一速度會放緩，第一。第二，顯然，定期存款和即時存款之間的差距已經縮小。因此，人們實際上可以從流動性中獲得價值，我們知道他們重視流動性，而無需將存款鎖定 12 個月或 24 個月。

And so we think those are the dynamics that we saw happening through Q4. And obviously, as William said, we do expect that still as the rate cycle continues to mature so you'll still see people making choices to put money into savings accounts. But the choice now between putting it into Instant Access versus time deposits, we think will continue to narrow because of the yield curve and what you can price at 12 and 24 months out, which is where most people were choosing to put their deposits.

因此，我們認為這些是我們在第四季看到的動態。顯然，正如威廉所說，我們確實預計隨著利率週期的不斷成熟，您仍然會看到人們選擇將錢存入儲蓄帳戶。但我們認為，由於殖利率曲線以及 12 個月和 24 個月後的定價（大多數人選擇將存款存入其中），現在在即時存取還是定期存款之間的選擇將繼續縮小。

So we think this is a good development. I think importantly for us, we want to make sure, given the nature of our customer base and how we can engage customers on a relative basis, we say performing strongly in this context.

所以我們認為這是一個很好的發展。我認為對我們來說重要的是，考慮到我們客戶群的性質以及我們如何在相對的基礎上吸引客戶，我們希望確保在這方面表現強勁。

Where does this end up? I've talked about this a lot with you in the last couple of years. When you look at the longer-term yield curve still being above 300 basis points, we always said, as you get further into the cycle, people would have rebalanced their portfolios into the liquidity deposits that they want in PCAs and instant access. But as you see time deposits come down and the returns, people will be more comfortable without not growing that further. So we think there will be stabilization through the back end of this year, but it will depend on where rates go, obviously.

這最終會走向何方？在過去的幾年裡，我和你多次談論過這個問題。當你看到長期殖利率曲線仍然高於300 個基點時，我們總是說，隨著你進一步進入週期，人們會重新平衡他們的投資組合，進入他們想要的PCAs 和即時訪問的流動性存款。但當你看到定期存款下降和回報率下降時，人們會感到更加舒適，而無需進一步增加。因此，我們認為今年年底將會趨於穩定，但這顯然取決於利率的走勢。

William, just talk about if there's sensitivity beyond 3 base rates?

William，請談談是否存在超過 3 個基本利率的敏感度？

Sure. Yes, yes. No, I will. Perhaps actually, care to just to add a couple of numbers to the analysis as well on deposits that you might find helpful. One is, as you've seen, PCA reductions have gone down from a GBP 3.2 billion level of Q3 to a GBP 1.9 billion level in Q4.

當然。是的是的。不，我會的。也許實際上，只需在分析中添加一些您可能認為有用的存款數字即可。一是，正如您所看到的，PCA 削減額已從第三季的 32 億英鎊水準下降到第四季的 19 億英鎊水準。

Now to be clear, a lot of that was back-end loaded in the quarter, but nonetheless, that's quite a significant reduction in PCA outflows. Secondly, the non -- what we described as a nonmaturity churn within our overall savings book, i.e., savings moving from Instant Access to fixed term for the first time, if you like, has gone down from around GBP 10 billion to around GBP 7 billion between quarter 3 to quarter 4, so quite a material reduction.

現在需要明確的是，其中許多是本季後端加載的，但儘管如此，PCA 流出量仍顯著減少。其次，我們所說的整體儲蓄帳簿中的非到期流失，即首次從即時訪問轉向固定期限的儲蓄，如果你願意的話，已經從大約 100 億英鎊下降到大約 7 英鎊第三季度到第四季度之間減少了10 億美元，因此大幅減少。

That appears to be continuing during the course of January and February of this year. And then thirdly, we retain the vast majority of fixed-term deposits that mature, the vast majority. Of those, we reckon about 60%, [6-0] percent, are going back on to fixed term versus the rest which are basically staying within Instant Access. So you've got that effect as well going on in the overall mix. And I think together, those 3 factors that we witnessed in Q4 and we're continuing to witness in Q1 of this year, support the thesis at least that deposit churn does appear to be slowing. Now again, it's early days and we have to see how things transpire, driven by all the points that Charlie mentioned, but the data certainly supports the supposition.

今年一月和二月期間這種情況似乎仍在持續。第三，我們保留了絕大多數到期的定期存款。其中，我們估計大約 60%（[6-0]%）會回到固定期限，而其餘的則基本上停留在即時訪問範圍內。所以你在整體混音中也得到了這種效果。我認為，我們在第四季度看到的以及今年第一季繼續看到的這三個因素至少支持了存款流失似乎正在放緩的論點。現在再說一遍，現在還為時過早，我們必須看看在查理提到的所有觀點的推動下事情會如何發展，但數據肯定支持這個假設。

Bank base rate cuts and what impact that might have? As you know, our guidance is greater than 290 for this year. That is predicated upon 3 bank base rate cuts. So we start out now at 5.25%. We end the year at 4.5%. We are also starting those in June and at both the quantum and the timing of those bank base rate cuts makes a difference.

銀行基準利率下調以及可能產生什麼影響？如您所知，我們今年的指導值大於 290。這是基於銀行 3 次基準利率下調。所以我們現在以 5.25% 開始。我們年底的成長率為 4.5%。我們也將從 6 月開始實施這些措施，銀行基本利率下調的幅度和時間都會產生影響。

But to answer your question, we've given some guidance in the disclosures around the impact of a 25 basis points parallel shift reduction, just like we did on the way up, we're giving the same guidance on the way down. Now that is both base rate inspired, but also it assumes a parallel shift in all associated curves of 25 basis points. And that gives you about GBP 150 million hit to income off the back of that 25 basis points reduction.

但為了回答你的問題，我們在披露中圍繞 25 個基點平行移動減少的影響給出了一些指導，就像我們在上漲時所做的那樣，我們在下跌時也給出了相同的指導。現在，這既是受基本利率啟發，也假設所有相關曲線平行移動 25 個基點。減少 25 個基點後，收入將減少約 1.5 億英鎊。

But it's worth making a couple of points. One is in that lower rate environment, just as Charlie's comments were indicating, you would expect deposit churn to slow even further, why bother churning in the context of lower rates. Likewise, you might expect offsetting steps, if you like, in the context of other prices, including, in particular, in asset markets, you certainly saw that on the way up.

但值得提出幾點。一是在較低的利率環境下，正如查理的評論所表明的那樣，你會預期存款流失速度會進一步放緩，為什麼要在較低利率的背景下進行存款流失呢？同樣，如果你願意的話，你可能會期望在其他價格的背景下，特別是在資產市場上採取抵消措施，你肯定會在上漲過程中看到這一點。

It's hard for me to believe that you don't also see it on the way down, and therefore, compensating effects or adjustments, if you like, in other asset markets. And possibly, who knows, you might see stronger levels of activity in that type of market, too.

我很難相信你在其他資產市場上也沒有看到它的下跌，因此，如果你願意的話，你也可以看到補償效應或調整。也許，誰知道呢，您也可能會看到這類市場的活動量更高。

Overall, what that means is that while the GBP 150 million number is a kind of crude estimate, if you like, of the effect of a 25 basis point parallel shift, the net number is likely to be lower than that because it is offset by the 2 or 3 factors that I just mentioned.

總體而言，這意味著雖然 1.5 億英鎊的數字是對 25 個基點平行移動效果的粗略估計，但淨數字可能會低於該數字，因為它被我剛才提到的2或3個因素。

As to the ultimate outcome, I suspect rate reductions above and beyond what we have given in our forecast, they are negative from an income point of view, for sure. But as said, they are less negative than that GBP 150 million sensitivity might point out. And the extent of that, I think, will depend upon not just the quantum, but also the timing. If things are late in the year, they don't make much difference to 2024. If they're earlier in the year, they clearly make more.

至於最終結果，我懷疑降息幅度超出了我們的預測，從收入的角度來看，它們肯定是負面的。但正如我們所說，它們的負面影響沒有 1.5 億英鎊的敏感性可能指出的那麼負面。我認為，其程度不僅取決於數量，還取決於時機。如果事情發生在今年晚些時候，那麼對 2024 年不會有太大影響。如果發生在今年早些時候，他們顯然會賺得更多。

So next question from (inaudible).

那麼下一個問題就來自（聽不清楚）。

Yes. Two then, please. One, so your Britain's mortgage bank, and nobody is really asking about what seems to be a very significant improvement in the outlook for the mortgage market? I wonder if that's because you're not charging enough for mortgages, kind of 60 basis points. It doesn't seem like very much, right? So the value-added for mortgage growth feels pretty low.

是的。那麼請來兩個。一，那麼英國的抵押貸款銀行，沒有人真正詢問抵押貸款市場前景似乎有非常重大的改善嗎？我想知道這是否是因為你們的房貸收費不夠，大概是 60 個基點。看起來不太像，對吧？因此，抵押貸款成長的附加價值感覺相當低。

So is there any reason to hope that as the largest lender, you can influence that to a level that's more competitive so that we're more interested, frankly? And then secondly, insurance. I mean, you don't seem to make any money in insurance anymore or you certainly didn't. In theory, you should, right? You sound like you're fairly growing the business and you've got all the CSM now, can that be a driver of earnings because it wasn't in 2023?

那麼，坦白說，有什麼理由希望作為最大的貸方，您可以將其影響到更具競爭力的水平，以便我們更感興趣？其次，保險。我的意思是，你似乎不再靠保險賺錢了，或者說你確實賺不到錢了。理論上，你應該這樣做，對嗎？聽起來你的業務正在相當成長，而且你現在已經擁有了所有的 CSM，這會成為收入的驅動因素嗎，因為它不是在 2023 年嗎？

So I've got that William and then you can come in.

我已經找到了威廉，然後你就可以進來了。

Sure.

當然。

So yes, you are right. We are the leading mortgage bank. And as William said, and you know the data, the start of the year has been a good start. I always say to the teams, 1 month doesn't make a quarter, let alone a year, but it's been good to see the confidence coming back into market and the margins have stabilized, as you say, just north of 60 basis points.

所以是的，你是對的。我們是領先的抵押貸款銀行。正如威廉所說，而且你也知道數據，今年年初是一個好的開始。我總是對團隊說，1 個月不足以構成一個季度，更不用說一年了，但很高興看到信心重新回到市場，而且利潤率已經穩定下來，正如你所說，略高於60個基點。

I think the first point is about 50 basis points, which we wrote business at last year and 60 basis points is very accretive business. And it's important to recognize that. You're shaking ahead, but I can assure you, when you look at the numbers, it's accretive.

我認為第一點大約是50個基點，這是我們去年寫的業務，60個基點是非常增值的業務。認識到這一點很重要。你正在搖搖欲墜，但我可以向你保證，當你看到這些數字時，它會不斷增加。

The other point, which just goes back to the last discussion, which I think is really important. I said to you before, on the way up in rate cycles, we've lived through them a long way. What you want is both sides of the balance sheet.

另一點，回到上次的討論，我認為這非常重要。我之前對你說過，在利率週期的上升過程中，我們已經經歷了很長一段路。你想要的是資產負債表的兩面。

You want a balance sheet, which is kind of a 100% loan-to-deposit ratio. You want a good mix of secured and unsecured assets and you want stable deposit bases, which are really grounded in strong relationships in the retail business. And what you've seen on the way up is we're differentiated in the stability of our deposit base and still competing effectively on assets. And on the way down, which is what you're alluding to, we've got the best leverage and the best mix of assets to compete on the way down. And so we do think there will be upside on the way down.

你需要一份資產負債表，也就是 100% 的貸存比。您需要有擔保和無擔保資產的良好組合，並且需要穩定的存款基礎，而這些存款基礎確實建立在零售業務的牢固關係之上。在上升過程中你看到的是，我們在存款基礎的穩定性方面具有差異化，並且在資產方面仍然具有有效的競爭能力。在下跌過程中，這就是你所提到的，我們擁有最好的槓桿和最佳資產組合，可以在下跌過程中競爭。因此，我們確實認為下跌過程中會有上行空間。

You need both sides of the balance sheet to be able to really win relative to our competitors in that context. And of course, underpinning all of this is still a structural hedge, which, as you know, has significant upside for us in each of the following 3 years and actually beyond, but obviously, relative to our guidance.

在這種情況下，你需要資產負債表的兩側才能真正相對於我們的競爭對手獲勝。當然，支撐這一切的仍然是結構性對沖，正如你所知，結構性對沖在接下來的三年甚至更長時間內對我們都有顯著的上行空間，但顯然是相對於我們的指導而言。

And we do still think that the longer-term yield curve is going to give us confidence in investing in the structural hedge as it rolls off, that underpins both sides of the balance sheet. Now how you assign the transfer price, capital and cost of funding to both sides of the balance sheet?

我們仍然認為，隨著結構性對沖的結束，長期殖利率曲線將使我們對投資結構性對沖充滿信心，這支撐了資產負債表的兩側。現在如何將轉讓價格、資本和融資成本分配到資產負債表兩側？

I don't know if you were shaking your head about returns. But I can assure you that even if you take a very competitive market price, third-party way of pricing mortgages, 50 to 60 basis points is good. And as you say, there is positive momentum in that market. In insurance, let me just deal with that one on insurance. What we've laid out is a strategy for growth around capital-light parts of the insurance business where we know we have leading franchises and also the broader investment businesses, so the workplace pensions, home insurance and protection. There are businesses where we make money going forward.

不知道你是否對退貨感到搖頭。但我可以向你保證，即使你採取非常有競爭力的市場價格，第三方抵押貸款的定價方式，50到60個基點也是不錯的。正如您所說，該市場存在積極勢頭。在保險方面，讓我簡單談談保險方面的問題。我們制定的是圍繞保險業務輕資本部分的成長策略，我們知道我們擁有領先的特許經營權以及更廣泛的投資業務，包括工作場所退休金、家庭保險和保障。有些業務是我們未來可以賺錢的。

We're also growing market share, and we are winning in those markets. And what we committed to in the strategy, and we'll talk again more about this in the next few years. But again, now what we're starting to see is the benefits of having 26 million customers through the broader relationships of the bank, being brought together with those very distinctive capabilities in our insurance business.

我們的市場份額也在不斷增長，我們正在這些市場上獲勝。以及我們在策略中承諾的內容，我們將在未來幾年內再次更多地討論這一點。但現在我們再次開始看到，透過銀行更廣泛的關係擁有 2,600 萬客戶，以及我們保險業務中那些非常獨特的能力，所帶來的好處。

We talked about our growth in annuities market share. You've seen the data, not the full data, but the underlying growth in our home insurance business and you've seen the growth in our workplace pensions business and what to say great about those businesses is they're all capital light and more predictable. And yes, the CSM does become a significant tailwind as we build that business going forward. So we're both excited about what we're starting to see is the growth, which we committed to, and the proof points that we're starting to see our ability to bring those to our 26 million customers and differentiate our distribution.

我們討論了年金市場份額的成長。您已經看到了數據，不是完整的數據，而是我們家庭保險業務的潛在增長，您也看到了我們工作場所退休金業務的增長，對這些業務的優點是它們都是輕資本的，而且更多可預測。是的，隨著我們繼續發展該業務，CSM 確實成為了一個重要的推動力。因此，我們都對我們開始看到的成長感到興奮，這是我們所承諾的，並且證明我們開始看到我們有能力將這些成長帶給我們的 2600 萬客戶並讓我們的分銷脫穎而出。

But you're right, what we need to do is prove that to you in terms of underlying returns over the next few years. There was -- we didn't disclose the insurance dividends, did we? Yes. There were strong dividends this year, which obviously is ultimately how you get as a shareholder, the returns from that business. They were strong actually for all of the period of time I've been here. But this year, we increased the dividend well in the last quarter of the year.

但你是對的，我們需要做的是在未來幾年的基本回報方面向你證明這一點。我們沒有揭露保險紅利，是嗎？是的。今年的股息很豐厚，這顯然是作為股東最終獲得該業務回報的方式。事實上，在我來這裡的這段時間裡，他們都很強大。但今年，我們在最後一個季度很好地增加了股息。

Al, just to give you 1 or 2 numbers on that as well to back up Charlie's point, the -- we saw insurance income of GBP 1.2 billion this year. That is up 26% on last year, number one. Number two, to Charlie's point, we've seen the dividend be, frankly, extremely helpful from a capital generation point of view for the group.

Al，只是為了給您一兩個數字來支持查理的觀點，我們今年的保險收入為 12 億英鎊。比去年增長 26%，位居第一。第二，就查理的觀點而言，坦白說，從資本生成的角度來看，我們看到股利對該集團極為有幫助。

We had GBP 250 million insurance dividend this year. We had GBP 400 million last year, and as [Cher] over there, now who runs the insurance business, I'll always take that as group CFO. So we've seen really strong performance in terms of profit growth for insurance. We've also seen very strong capital contributions to the group from it. And then as Charlie said, we've got a strategic commitment to it in the context of the transformation that we launched in '22, which should grow that further.

今年我們有2.5億英鎊的保險紅利。去年我們有 4 億英鎊，作為那邊的 [Cher]，現在負責保險業務，我將始終將其視為集團首席財務官。因此，我們看到保險業利潤成長的強勁表現。我們也看到它對該集團的資本貢獻非常大。然後，正如查理所說，我們在 22 年啟動的轉型背景下對此做出了戰略承諾，這應該會進一步發展。

Okay. Can you just take the next question from Raul?

好的。你能回答勞爾的下一個問題嗎？

It's Raul Sinha from JPMorgan. Obviously, lots of detailed questions already on NII. Perhaps if I can invite you to comment on total income in terms of consensus and kind of what people are expecting for Lloyd. So when I think about margin, I think consensus going for 296, you're very, very clear gentle decline in the first half, gentle upwards second half that's greater than 290.

我是摩根大通的勞爾辛哈。顯然，NII 上已經有很多詳細的問題。也許我可以邀請您就共識和人們對勞埃德的期望來評論總收入。因此，當我考慮保證金時，我認為共識為 296，上半年非常非常明顯地溫和下降，下半年溫和上升，大於 290。

It sounds like that might be a bit higher than you've got the average interest-earning assets number. I think consensus is up on at 455. You haven't commented specifically on OI. And I think you've given us some help on operating lease depreciation. So I was just wondering whether or not you think sort of the GBP 17.7 billion in consensus is broadly correct?

聽起來這可能比你得到的平均生息資產數量要高一些。我認為共識已達到 455。您還沒有具體評論 OI。我認為您在經營租賃折舊方面給了我們一些幫助。所以我只是想知道您是否認為 177 億英鎊的共識總體上是正確的？

Maybe NII is too high, other income offsets that? Or perhaps there might be some optimism there? And then I guess, the second one, just broader on the agenda of consumer duty. One, how long do you think it takes to get to the other end in terms of clarity that you need for not just the motor finance issue which, I guess, is going to be a live issue, and I guess you're waiting like everybody else till the end of this year.

也許NII太高了，其他收入可以抵銷嗎？或者也許存在一些樂觀情緒？然後我想，第二個，只是在消費者責任議程上更廣泛。一，您認為需要多長時間才能到達另一端，您需要的不僅僅是汽車金融問題，我想這將是一個實時問題，我想您正在等待其他人直到今年年底。

But also there's a broader suite of changes that are coming in for the industry. How long do you think this process takes? And when do you think you'll have enough clarity to maybe, one, give us some clarity on overall provisioning, but two, perhaps make some changes to how you might compete in businesses where it might be opportunities for you against competitors?

但該行業也正在發生一系列更廣泛的變化。您認為這個過程需要多長時間？您認為什麼時候您才能有足夠的清晰度，一方面，讓我們對整體配置有一些明確的了解，另一方面，也許對您在業務中的競爭方式做出一些改變，這可能是您與競爭對手競爭的機會？

Let me take the second question, sure.

當然，讓我回答第二個問題。

Sure. Yes.

當然。是的。

Thanks, Raul. I guess on your first question, I should start out by saying I'm not going to comment overtly on consensus. What I will do is give you the kind of building blocks, if you like, to allow you to build the income profile for the business. As you say, we have got guidance for greater than 290 basis points. We feel very comfortable in that guidance.

謝謝，勞爾。我想關於你的第一個問題，我應該先說我不會公開評論共識。如果您願意，我要做的就是為您提供建置模組，讓您能夠建立企業的收入狀況。正如您所說，我們得到的指導值超過 290 個基點。我們對這項指導感到非常滿意。

It is driven by the 3 or 4 factors that I mentioned earlier on. That is to say deposit churn continuing but slowing, number one, the mortgage refinancing headwind continuing through the year, albeit abating through the year, number two. That being somewhat augmented by an expected degree touch more retail asset margin pressure, which you'll have seen from our slides, we saw in '23, probably a little bit more of in '24, but then all of that offset by the principal tailwind of the structural hedge, which builds momentum.

它是由我之前提到的 3 或 4 個因素所驅動的。也就是說，第一，存款流失仍在繼續，但正在放緩；第二，抵押貸款再融資逆風在這一年中持續存在，但在這一年有所減弱。預期程度會在一定程度上加劇零售資產利潤率壓力，您可以從我們的幻燈片中看到這一點，我們在23 年看到，可能在24 年看到更多，但隨後所有這些都被本金抵消了結構性對沖的順風車，形成了勢頭。

And that's what gives us comfort in really 2 things. One is the margin guidance of greater than 290, the second is the kind of shape that we discussed earlier on, which is to say a gentle decline during the first half, gentle incline in the second half, certainly confirmed by the time we get to quarter 4. That's our expectation.

這就是讓我們在兩件事上感到安慰的原因。第一個是大於 290 的保證金指導，第二個是我們之前討論過的那種形狀，也就是說上半年溫和下降，下半年溫和上升，肯定會在我們到達時得到證實。第四季度。這是我們的預期。

Things could change. Things could change like activity, things could change like bank base rate expectations and the like. But at the moment, that's based upon our GDP outlook, and it's based upon our rate expectations, which look pretty much like the market as far as I can tell today.

事情可能會改變。事情可能會發生變化，例如活動，事情可能會發生變化，例如銀行基本利率預期等。但目前，這是基於我們的 GDP 前景和我們的利率預期，就我今天所知，這看起來與市場非常相似。

The AIEA expectation, as I said earlier on, is deliberately greater than GBP 450 billion. And that is partly because of the uncertainties. It's partly obviously the call that we make based on how we see the business. I should add, and I didn't say this in my earlier comments that we had a bit of an overhang from open mortgage book refinancings in quarter 4. They did not refinance in quarter 4.

正如我之前所說，AIEA 的預期故意高於 4500 億英鎊。這部分是因為不確定性。顯然，這在某種程度上是我們根據我們對業務的看法所做的決定。我應該補充一點，我在之前的評論中並沒有說過，我們在第四季度的開放式抵押貸款賬面再融資中遇到了一些懸而未決的問題。他們在第四季度沒有進行再融資。

We expect that to happen in quarter 1. So if you see some slight nuance to my comments around AIEAs in respect of the open mortgage book in quarter 1, that's why. We're expecting some -- a reasonable flow of refinancings in the open mortgage book, which will probably attenuate the growth that you might see in that book in quarter 1. So I say that just the context. And ahead, I guess, of reporting to you at the end of the quarter.

我們預計這將在第一季發生。因此，如果您發現我對第一季開放抵押貸款帳簿方面的 AIEA 的評論有一些細微差別，那就是原因。我們預計公開抵押貸款帳簿中會有一些合理的再融資流量，這可能會削弱您在第一季該帳簿中可能看到的成長。所以我說的只是背景。我想，我們將在季度末向您報告。

The OOI, as you say, we haven't commented on. I guess I'll make a couple of comments there. One is, as you know, OOI was up 10% in 2023. I think that was probably a little bit ahead of where the market expected us to be. We do expect OOI to continue to grow during the course of 2024.

OOI，正如你所說，我們還沒有發表評論。我想我會在那裡發表一些評論。其一，如您所知，2023 年 OOI 成長了 10%。我認為這可能比市場預期的要提前一點。我們確實預計 OOI 將在 2024 年繼續成長。

Now whether it will be ahead of or in line with or below market expectations, I shan't comment, but we are confident in a reasonable pace, if you like, of OOI growth. Whether it will be 10% or not, let's see that may be a little bit south of that, but it should be reasonably healthy growth. And it should be, in turn, achieved across all of our business areas, that is to say, retail, commercial, IP&I and also central as well, which include primarily our equity businesses, as you know, Lloyds Development Capital is an illustration of that.

現在，無論是超越、符合或低於市場預期，我都不會發表評論，但如果你願意的話，我們對 OOI 成長的合理速度充滿信心。無論是否達到 10%，讓我們看看可能有點偏高，但應該是相當健康的成長。反過來，它應該在我們所有的業務領域實現，也就是說，零售、商業、IP&I 以及核心業務，其中主要包括我們的股權業務，如你所知，勞埃德發展資本就是一個例子。

So I would expect that to grow over the course of the year. Again, I shan't comment on it versus the market. But overall, it leads us to feel comfortable with the overall income profile when set against the cost guidance that we've given you and the below 30 basis points impairment guidance, and that below is worth underlining to get to our 13% RoTE target as a whole. So perhaps I'll pause there, Charlie and hand over to you.

因此，我預計這一數字在這一年中將會成長。再次強調，我不會針對市場對其進行評論。但總的來說，根據我們給您的成本指導和低於 30 個基點的減值指導，這讓我們對整體收入狀況感到滿意，並且值得強調的是，為了達到我們 13% 的 RoTE 目標，整個。所以也許我會停在那裡，查理，然後把任務交給你。

Yes. In consumer duty, so it's obviously a really important question. A couple of thoughts in reaction to it. The first is, obviously, we implemented the first phase of this last July. We worked very closely with the FCO on that. We had strong feedback that the capabilities we bring and the experience that Lloyds Banking Group has had around thinking about good customer outcomes and then dealing with remediations and supporting vulnerable customers, means that we were right at the front of the pack around how we were thinking about consumer duty.

是的。在消費者責任方面，這顯然是一個非常重要的議題。對此的一些想法。首先，顯然，我們在去年七月實施了第一階段。我們在這方面與英國外交部密切合作。我們得到了強烈的回饋，我們帶來的能力以及勞埃德銀行集團在思考良好的客戶結果、然後處理補救措施和支持弱勢客戶方面所擁有的經驗，意味著我們在思考方式方面處於領先地位關於消費者義務。

And then we've got another implementation this summer for the next phase of implementation. So it's early days. And I said when I joined Lloyds Banking Group, it was one of the areas I really saw the depth of competence, capability and proactive thinking in the bank. It's a really important capability for me as the CEO of this group to think we have product, channel and then broader operational teams that really do think about customer outcomes and then put in place effective controls across all of our people and our 26 million customers.

然後我們在今年夏天為下一階段的實施提供了另一個實施方案。所以現在還為時過早。我說過，當我加入勞埃德銀行集團時，這是我真正看到銀行的能力、能力和主動思維深度的領域之一。作為該集團的首席執行官，我認為我們擁有產品、管道以及更廣泛的營運團隊，這些團隊真正考慮客戶成果，然後對我們所有員工和2600 萬客戶實施有效控制，這對我來說是一項非常重要的能力。

Your question around the go-forward and when this becomes clear and what the opportunities are? I think the pragmatic answer is it's going to take a couple of years to bed in, both for the industry and us is the major -- biggest participant to really demonstrate how we're now measuring outcomes from customers and taking actions and for the regulator to determine how they think about that in the context of their business.

您的問題是關於未來的發展以及這一點何時變得清晰以及機會是什麼？我認為務實的答案是，這需要幾年的時間才能適應，無論是對於行業還是我們來說，我們都是最大的參與者，才能真正向監管機構展示我們現在如何衡量客戶的結果並採取行動以確定他們在業務背景下如何看待這一點。

You know me well enough by now, I sat down with my teams, some of whom are here on day 1 and said, what are the opportunities to serve customers better? And there are, there are opportunities. Because if you think simply in the last 15 years, what's happened in the U.K. is we've put lots of constraints on how you interact with customers at the point at which you sell a product to them and wealth is probably the best example.

您現在已經足夠了解我了，我與我的團隊（其中一些人在第一天就來到這裡）坐下來問，有哪些機會可以更好地為客戶服務？機會是存在的。因為如果你簡單地想一想，在過去 15 年裡，英國發生的事情就是，我們在向客戶銷售產品時與客戶的互動方式設置了很多限制，而財富可能就是最好的例子。

But if you can then move to certainty around looking at how people use our services and products, most of our customers are with us for 10, 20, 30, 40 years and you can get confidence around how to use them, you can actually make it easier for them to upfront, get access to them if they're still well-designed products.

但是，如果您能夠確定人們如何使用我們的服務和產品，我們的大多數客戶已經與我們合作了10 年、20 年、30 年、40 年，並且您可以對如何使用它們充滿信心，那麼您實際上可以如果它們仍然是設計精良的產品，那麼他們就更容易預先獲得它們。

So I think there are -- I know that's conceptual, but it's really important. I think there will be opportunities for the industry but that won't emerge for a few years, I think. One other thought, which I think is important in this context. I'll let William take all of the detailed questions on motor finance.

所以我認為——我知道這是概念性的，但它非常重要。我認為這個行業將有機會，但幾年內不會出現。我認為在這種情況下很重要的另一個想法。我將讓威廉回答有關汽車金融的所有詳細問題。

But having a strong relationship with your regulator is really important. Actually, I think the way you've seen the FCA intervene, we have said we welcomed their intervention. It's different, right? It's different from prior examples. They've stepped in quickly. They understand what the implications could be for customers for the industry. You know actually the biggest participant in this industry is the car manufacturing industry, not actually the banks.

但與監管機構建立牢固的關係非常重要。事實上，我認為從你所看到的 FCA 幹預方式來看，我們已經說過我們歡迎他們的干預。這是不同的，對吧？它與前面的範例不同。他們很快就介入了。他們了解這對該行業的客戶可能產生的影響。大家知道其實這個行業最大的參與者是汽車製造業，而不是銀行。

We're not biggest finances. We are the biggest individual financer, but it's a much broader industry. And the FCA is very proactively leading into consumer duty to make sure they get the balance right, and I think that's important. And it's different from if you go back 15 years ago, what I saw at the start of this journey between the conduct regulator and the banks.

我們不是最大的金融公司。我們是最大的個人金融機構，但這是一個更廣泛的行業。 FCA 非常積極地引入消費者責任，以確保他們取得正確的平衡，我認為這很重要。如果你回到 15 年前，我在行為監管機構和銀行之間的旅程開始時所看到的情況有所不同。

Okay. Take the next question from Jonathan.

好的。回答喬納森的下一個問題。

Jonathan Pierce from Deutsche Numis. Can I ask you 2 questions? Sorry, I'm back on motor. The market has obviously moved to take circa GBP 3 billion out of the market cap in no small part, I think, because of this. The analysts naturally are going to think about worst-case scenarios and many figures are out there, but GBP 2 billion, GBP 3 billion higher than that in some cases.

來自 Deutsche Numis 的喬納森·皮爾斯 (Jonathan Pierce)。我可以問你2個問題嗎？抱歉，我又開始騎車了。我認為，正因為如此，市場顯然已經從市值中抽走了約 30 億英鎊。分析師自然會考慮最壞的情況，而且有很多數字，但在某些情況下會高出20億英鎊、30億英鎊。

I don't expect you to give us your worst-case scenario that's feeding into that [450], but it would be helpful to get a little bit more color on how you're thinking about the worst-case scenarios relative to the market. I mean, naturally, we're going to assume that of the GBP 42 billion of originations in Black Horse since 2007 to 2020 all of it was discretionary commission arrangement linked, which probably isn't the case.

我不希望您向我們提供您的最壞情況，這會影響到[450]，但如果能更詳細地了解您如何考慮相對於市場的最壞情況，將會很有幫助。 。我的意思是，自然地，我們會假設自 2007 年至 2020 年以來 Black Horse 的 420 億英鎊起源中，所有這些都與全權委託安排相關，但事實可能並非如此。

But it would be helpful if you could give us some color on that. And I think also if you could just confirm, and this is a matter of fact as much as anything else, the trust documents from Cardiff in the late 2010s suggests that 2/3 of the business was written in APR below 7%. Is that representative of the business that was written more broadly?

但如果您能為我們提供一些相關信息，將會很有幫助。我想如果你能確認的話，這也是事實，2010 年代末卡迪夫的信託文件表明，2/3 的業務年利率低於 7%。該代表是更廣泛的業務代表嗎？

I mean there's a good sample size, it's GBP 4 billion accretive loans in those securitizations. So that would be the first question. The second question is more simple, really about the trajectory to this 15% RoTE in 2026. I mean the market will go away this morning and worry a bit about near-term NIM, operating lease depreciation, those sorts of things. But you're still targeting an RoTE above consensus a couple of years out on probably a TNAV that's at least as high as consensus, probably higher than consensus rather.

我的意思是，這些證券化的樣本量很大，有 40 億英鎊的增值貸款。這是第一個問題。第二個問題更簡單，實際上是關於 2026 年 15% RoTE 的軌跡。我的意思是，今天早上市場將會消失，並擔心近期的淨利差、經營租賃折舊等問題。但你的目標仍然是幾年後的 RoTE 高於共識，而 TNAV 可能至少與共識一樣高，甚至高於共識。

Is the bottom line here that the deposit margin, one of the most striking numbers this morning, I found actually was Slide 17, where the deposit margin in the second half was 122 basis points, which again is a backdrop of base rate of 5%-plus, is very low, and it's clearly a function of the structural hedge cost.

這裡的底線是存款保證金，今天早上最引人注目的數字之一，我發現實際上是幻燈片17，其中下半年的存款保證金為122個基點，這又是在基準利率為5%的背景下-加上，非常低，而且它顯然是結構性對沖成本的函數。

If we stand back from deposit betas and mix and hedge unwinds and all that sort of good stuff, is the simple message here that in a rate environment when base rate is, I don't know, 3%, 3.5% a few years forward, you should be making quite a lot more than 122 basis points on your deposit book? And that's how we get to 15% RoTE.

如果我們放棄存款貝塔，混合和對沖平倉以及所有諸如此類的好東西，那麼這裡傳達的一個簡單信息是，在基本利率為我不知道的利率環境中，幾年後將達到 3%、3.5% ，您的存款簿上的存款應該遠遠超過122 個基點嗎？這就是我們達到 15% RoTE 的方法。

Yes. Yes. Thanks, John. Should I take that, Charlie?

是的。是的。謝謝，約翰。我該接受嗎，查理？

Yes. I might be able second one because it's a great question.

是的。我可能會問第二個，因為這是一個很好的問題。

Thanks, Jonathan. On the motor question, first of all, we won't comment on models that are out there right now. The GBP 450 million provision, as you know, is both operational and legal expenses on the one hand and a variety of redress scenarios and another -- on the other hand, which in turn build into the 450.

謝謝，喬納森。關於馬達問題，首先，我們不會評論現有的型號。如您所知，4.5 億英鎊的撥款一方面是營運和法律費用，另一方面是各種補救方案，另一方面，這些費用又納入 450 計劃中。

Within that, I mentioned some of the variables that are put into those scenarios. Again, time periods, commission model, 0 versus reasonable commission proactive versus reactive redress campaigns, response and uphold rates, these types of things. Within that, I think there are some variables that are particularly sensitive.

其中，我提到了這些場景中的一些變數。同樣，時間段、佣金模式、零佣金與合理佣金、主動與被動補救活動、回應和維持率等。其中，我認為有些變數特別敏感。

And I would highlight the 0 rate versus reasonable rate, as an example, I said that could lead to a circa greater than 50% reduction in any redress provision that might be necessary here. Likewise, the behavioral versus contractual life is an important one. Likewise, is this a proactive redress campaign if that is what it gets to or is it a reactive one? That's another big one.

我想強調 0 費率與合理費率的比較，例如，我說過這可能會導致此處可能需要的任何補救措施減少約 50% 以上。同樣，行為生活與契約生活也是一個重要的議題。同樣，如果這是一項積極的補救運動，如果這是它所達到的目的，或者它是一個被動的補救運動嗎？那又是一件大事了。

And these things make a very big difference to the overall provision that might be necessary. And when we observe the outside market and the assessment that it makes, without commenting on them, we note the absence of that type of sensitivity, if you like, in those numbers.

這些事情對可能需要的整體供應產生了很大的影響。當我們觀察外部市場及其所做的評估而不對其發表評論時，我們注意到這些數字缺乏這種敏感性（如果你願意的話）。

The -- you asked a question about the proportion of financings that are linked to discretionary commission models. The reason why we're not giving further detailed information at this point is because we see the big judgments that will make a massive difference to whatever the redress might come out of this are basically in the hands of the regulator, of the issues that I just mentioned as examples.

您詢問了與酌情佣金模式相關的融資比例的問題。我們現在不提供進一步詳細資訊的原因是，我們看到重大判斷將對由此產生的任何補救措施產生巨大影響，這些判斷基本上掌握在監管機構手中，我所討論的問題基本上掌握在監管機構手中。只是作為例子提到的。

There's also an awful lot of kind of intricacies in the detail that we might give you. So if we start to give you a piece of detail around, let's say, discretionary proportions, there is a whole load more detail behind that about when they were replied about the extent to which there's flexibility in the model, about the type of discretionary model and all of these types of things. And so I think at the moment, at least, recognizing that the big judgments that will make a material difference to the provision are in the hands of the regulator and then any detail that we will give you or only kind of nuance around the edges in comparison with that, that's the reason why we're sort of sticking with where we're at.

我們可能會為您提供大量錯綜複雜的細節。因此，如果我們開始向您提供有關可自由支配比例的一些細節，那麼當他們回答有關模型的靈活性程度以及可自由支配模型的類型時，背後就會有更多詳細信息以及所有這些類型的事情。因此，我認為目前至少要認識到，對條款產生重大影響的重大判斷掌握在監管機構手中，然後我們將向您提供的任何細節，或者只是邊緣的細微差別。與此相比，這就是我們堅持現況的原因。

There is, as you say, some publicly available information, and you mentioned the trust documents there in the context of Black Horse. I shan't comment on that. Safe to say that there's quite -- I think as you have been doing, if you kind of scratch me at the surface, there's quite a lot of public information out there that enables you to get to views on these things.

正如你所說，有一些公開信息，你在黑馬的背景下提到了信託文件。我不會對此發表評論。可以肯定地說，我認為正如您一直在做的那樣，如果您觸及了我的表面，那麼有相當多的公共資訊可以讓您了解對這些事情的看法。

But bear in mind that again, the key judgment is not so much that. The key judgment is where does regulator go in respect to some of these big calls that we highlighted. On the 15%, first of all, I can't resist, but it's worth just underlying we expect greater than 15%. I mentioned earlier on, that is not contingent upon 13.5% moving to 13%, we would still be saying greater than 15% even if we're stuck with 13.5% as a CET1 target. So with that in mind, I guess, a couple of building blocks.

但請再次記住，關鍵的判斷並不那麼重要。關鍵的判斷是監管機構對我們強調的一些重大呼籲將採取什麼行動。首先，對於 15%，我無法抗拒，但它的價值只是我們預期高於 15% 的基礎。我之前提到過，這並不取決於 13.5% 升至 13%，即使我們堅持將 13.5% 作為 CET1 目標，我們仍然會說高於 15%。因此，考慮到這一點，我想，有幾個構建塊。

One is we do expect the business as usual, which, in my parlance, I suppose, includes structural hedge to significantly ramp up in the period between now to 2016 -- 2026. The primary reasons for that are the headwinds I say, go into [abeyance]. The mortgage one is very mechanical. As long as you don't think the completion margin is going to completely collapse. The fact that our maturity margins are coming down over this time period means that the mortgage refinancing headwind kind of moving out of the picture, that's a pretty mechanical outcome. The deposit one is a bit more of a judgment call based upon where rates will go, based upon how many people move from Instant Access into fixed term and so forth. But as Charlie said, the incentives for that type of move seem to be kind of disappearing during this time frame.

一是我們確實預期一切如常，用我的話來說，我想，包括從現在到 2016 年至 2026 年期間，結構性對沖將大幅增加。我所說的主要原因是不利因素， [暫停]。抵押貸款是非常機械的。只要你不認為完成率會完全崩潰。事實上，我們的到期收益率在這段時間內下降，這意味著抵押貸款再融資的逆風已經消失，這是一個相當機械的結果。存款更像是一種判斷，基於利率的走向，基於有多少人從即時訪問轉為定期存款等等。但正如查理所說，在這段時間內，這類措施的誘因似乎正在消失。

And then the third big driver, the big tailwind, of course, the structural hedge, again, is a relatively mechanical input predicated upon a certain interest rate assumption, base rates, forward curves and the like. And as long as you believe that base rates and forward curves are more or less as we have depicted them, and it is more or less, it doesn't need to be precisely clearly. Then again, you've got a very mechanical building in terms of the structural hedge profile over time within the business as usual earnings profile.

第三個大驅動力，當然是結構性對沖，也是一個大順風，它是一種相對機械的輸入，基於一定的利率假設、基本利率、遠期曲線等。只要您相信基本利率和遠期曲線或多或少與我們所描述的一樣，而且或多或少，它不需要非常清楚。話又說回來，在正常獲利情況下，隨著時間的推移，就結構性對沖狀況而言，你已經有了一個非常機械的建築。

And I'll make one more comment there, which is that at the moment within the structural hedge, we have, because of the legacy of when it was built up in a low rate environment, quite a lot of low-yielding hedges. Those come through at various different points in time. They come through a little bit less in 2025, a little bit more in 2026. So you get more of the low-yielding hedges out in '26 than you did in '25, which leads in turn to a bit of a ramp-up in structural hedge earnings in that time period.

我還要再補充一點，那就是，目前在結構性對沖中，由於低利率環境下建立的遺留問題，我們擁有相當多的低收益對沖。這些是在不同的時間點發生的。他們在 2025 年的表現會少一點，在 2026 年會多一點。因此，你在 26 年獲得的低收益對沖數量比 25 年多，這反過來又導致了一些增長該時期的結構性對沖收益。

So that's the business as usual picture. It is then supported by the strategic initiatives, where we expect to gather pace. We talked a bit about insurance. And the interaction between insurance and retail is one example. As you know, there are many more across the retail, commercial and insurance spaces that we expect to build to the GBP 1.5 billion incremental revenues over the 2026 time period.

這就是一切照舊的情況。然後，它得到戰略舉措的支持，我們預計將加快步伐。我們討論了一些關於保險的問題。保險與零售的互動就是一個例子。如您所知，我們預計在 2026 年期間，零售、商業和保險領域將有更多的增量收入達到 15 億英鎊。

Alongside of that, we -- I hope people will acknowledge, we try to keep very tight grip on costs. Now as you've seen today, we've upped our cost guidance from 9.2 to 9.3, but that is in the interest of securing some severance benefits. Those in turn and other cost savings metrics allow us to plan for a flatter cost outcome in the '25 to '26 period.

除此之外，我希望人們會承認，我們努力嚴格控製成本。正如您今天所看到的，我們已將成本指引從 9.2 上調至 9.3，但這是為了確保獲得一些遣散費。這些反過來和其他成本節省指標使我們能夠在 25 至 26 年間規劃更平坦的成本結果。

I won't be more precise than that because we'll come back to you at the end of the year on it. But that, together with an ebbing of the overall investment program, we're going to continue to invest heavily in the business. We should do and we will do. But nonetheless, the type of boost that we've had in the last few years, that will at least plateau out and potentially at least come down a little.

我不會比這更精確，因為我們會在今年年底回覆您。但隨著整體投資計畫的減少，我們將繼續對該業務進行大量投資。我們應該做並且我們將會做。但儘管如此，過去幾年我們所獲得的這種成長至少會趨於穩定，並且可能至少會下降。

So that gives us a relatively faster cost picture, resting upon a macro environment of the type that we portrayed in our forecast, that's what gives us confidence in the context of the greater than -- than 15% RoTE expectations for '26. And specifically on your question, Jonathan, therefore, a big part of it, as you say, is a normalization of the deposit margin off the back of the structural hedge maturing. So in short, the answer to your question is yes.

因此，這為我們提供了相對較快的成本情況，基於我們在預測中描述的宏觀環境，這讓我們對 26 年 RoTE 預期超過 15% 充滿信心。因此，具體到你的問題，喬納森，正如你所說，其中很大一部分是在結構性對沖到期後存款保證金的正常化。簡而言之，你的問題的答案是肯定的。

Can I just jump in because it's a really important strategic question. The answer is yes. And we've worked and you do analysis across banking markets across the whole world. One of the consequences of a decade or more of very low interest rates. And when we started this journey together, William and I with you, we had a few things that we inherited. We had over GBP 250 billion of the structural hedge, which was returning 1%.

我可以插話一下嗎，因為這是一個非常重要的策略問題。答案是肯定的。我們和你們一起對全世界的銀行市場進行了分析。十年或更長時間極低利率的後果之一。當我們一起開始這段旅程時，威廉和我以及你，我們繼承了一些東西。我們有超過 2500 億英鎊的結構性對沖，回報率為 1%。

We had a GBP 7.3 billion pension deficit. We had a very large legacy mortgage portfolio at margins that you all looked at and said, we knew we couldn't return. We hadn't been able to invest in some of the modern technology that we knew we needed to do to compete. And if you think through what's happening here, if you have a well positioned customer-centered balance sheet, which is leveraged on both sides of the balance sheet with good diversity across secured and unsecured, which we do have, with a loan deposit ratio of 96%, 97%.

我們的退休金赤字為 73 億英鎊。我們有一個非常大的遺留抵押貸款投資組合，你們都看過了，然後說，我們知道我們無法返回。我們無法投資一些我們知道競爭所需的現代技術。如果你想一想這裡發生的事情，如果你有一個定位良好的以客戶為中心的資產負債表，資產負債表的兩側都有槓桿，在擔保和無擔保方面具有良好的多樣性，我們確實擁有這一點，貸款存款比率為96%、97%。

Through cycle, and as base rates go up, you will get a rise at the base on that balance sheet. That is what's happened in every banking market and the U.K. over history. So your simple thesis, I think, is the right one. Now there's a lot you need to have to be able to do that successfully. And I think Lloyds Banking Group does have those things. And the tenant that we've always said is by 2026, we will have got out of most of those problems. We've already dealt with the pension deficit, which I thought was a horrible drag on us, and you've heard the other things we've talked about that we're doing. And then on top of that, we're layering on GBP 1.5 billion of additional revenue growth. So we look at the targets, and we think we're very glad with the strategy we laid out and it enables us to compete whether rates go up or down. But as the base rate environment increases, it really strengthens our business model.

在整個週期中，隨著基本利率的上升，資產負債表上的基數將會上升。這就是歷史上每個銀行市場和英國所發生的情況。所以我認為你的簡單論文是正確的。現在，您需要做很多事情才能成功做到這一點。我認為勞埃德銀行集團確實擁有這些東西。我們一直說的租戶是到 2026 年，我們將擺脫大部分問題。我們已經解決了退休金赤字問題，我認為這對我們來說是一個可怕的拖累，你也聽說過我們正在做的其他事情。除此之外，我們還將實現 15 億英鎊的額外收入成長。因此，我們著眼於目標，我們認為我們對制定的策略非常滿意，它使我們能夠在利率上升或下降時進行競爭。但隨著基本利率環境的提高，它確實增強了我們的業務模式。

Okay. I'll just take a couple of more questions. Chris.

好的。我再問幾個問題。克里斯。

It's Chris Cant from Autonomous. If I could just come back to your CET1 target, please, on the 13%. So I know in your fixed income deck, you show a 10.3% MDA, but you do have the ring-fence buffer as well. So just in terms of how credit markets are going to price your debt, are you happy to run with headroom to MDA at the very lower end of what we observe across European banks.

我是 Autonomous 的 Chris Cant。如果我能回到你的 CET1 目標，請在 13% 上。所以我知道在你的固定收益套牌中，你顯示了 10.3% 的 MDA，但你也有圍欄緩衝區。因此，就信貸市場將如何為你的債務定價而言，你是否願意在我們觀察到的歐洲銀行的最低水平上為 MDA 提供空間？

I appreciate that there is a countercyclical component to your MDA, which isn't the case for some peers, but you are going to screen pretty badly on those charts that some of my credit colleagues run. So how do you think that's going to impact the pricing of your debt, please? And then on a sort of related capital point, you've said now EUR 5 billion of further RWA inflation from regulatory change across 2024 to 2026. I'm just curious if you can give us a little bit of a pointer as to where you expect RWAs to be by 2025, say. So you've had that [220] to 225 kicking around for a little while. I get the impression that some of the reg inflation is maybe going to come a bit later now than you expect. I don't know. But obviously, we've got Basel 3.1 in 2025. Just curious as to how your thinking is developing around 2025 RWAs, please?

我很欣賞你的 MDA 中有一個反週期成分，這對某些同行來說並非如此，但你會在我的一些信貸同事運行的那些圖表上進行非常糟糕的篩選。那麼您認為這將如何影響您的債務定價？然後在某種相關的資本點上，您現在說過，從2024 年到2026 年，監管變化將導致RWA 進一步通貨膨脹50 億歐元。我只是好奇您能否給我們一些指示，告訴我們您的目標是什麼預計 RWA 將在 2025 年實現。因此，[220] 到 225 已經運行了一段時間了。我的印像是，一些監管通膨可能會比你預期的要晚一些。我不知道。但顯然，我們已經在 2025 年推出了巴塞爾 3.1。只是想知道您的想法在 2025 年 RWA 周圍是如何發展的？

Yes. Thanks, Chris. Perhaps I'll deal with those 2. The CET1 point, first of all, as I said in my comments, we think this reduction from 13.5% to 13% is good news actually for all stakeholders. And I think, Chris, the reason why is because you have to look behind the reasons as to why we're doing this. We're doing this because we significantly reduced risk in the business. As I mentioned earlier on, you can look at various different portfolios that we have to testify to that. But perhaps most objectively, you can look at the ACS results to testify to that.

是的。謝謝，克里斯。也許我會處理這些 2. CET1 點，首先，正如我在評論中所說，我們認為從 13.5% 到 13% 的減少實際上對所有利益相關者來說都是個好消息。我認為，克里斯，原因是因為你必須了解我們這樣做的背後原因。我們這樣做是因為我們顯著降低了業務風險。正如我之前提到的，您可以查看我們必須證明的各種不同的投資組合。但也許最客觀的是，您可以查看 ACS 結果來證明這一點。

So I would hope that debt holders very much welcome the risk reduction measures that we've been taking in the portfolio, particularly in the last 5 years, as I mentioned, but also you witnessed it in 2023 securitizations are an example of that. There are many others. That's point number one. Point number two is that you'll be aware because of CRD IV, we are seeing an increase in RWA density over this time. That RWA density means that actually a reduction from 13.5% to 13% is not as much of an equity reduction as you might first think.

因此，我希望債務持有人非常歡迎我們在投資組合中採取的風險降低措施，特別是在過去 5 年中，正如我所提到的，但您在 2023 年也看到了證券化就是一個例子。還有很多其他的。這是第一點。第二點是，由於 CRD IV，您會意識到，我們看到 RWA 密度在此期間有所增加。 RWA 密度意味著實際上從 13.5% 減少到 13% 並不像您首先想像的那樣減少了股本。

Because we are expecting CRD IV to continue to give us GBP 5 billion of RWAs over the course of the period between now to mid '26, that CRD IV add-on continues. So I think, Chris, debt holders will look at not so much the equity Tier 1 ratio, but what is the total quantum of equity that we are holding in the business. And what they'll see is that against a reduced risk profile for the reasons that I mentioned, we are holding an equity base that isn't terribly different over this time period. I would expect, therefore, the type of spreads that we trade out within debt markets, which are typically better than anybody else's at least in the local markets, will stay that way. The RWAs point, you mentioned it's a very fair question.

因為我們預計 CRD IV 從現在到 26 年中期期間將繼續為我們提供 50 億英鎊的 RWA，所以 CRD IV 附加項目仍在繼續。因此，克里斯，我認為債務持有人不會太在意一級股權比率，而是會關注我們在企業中持有的總股權數量。他們將看到的是，由於我提到的原因，風險狀況有所降低，但我們所持有的股本基礎在這段時間內並沒有太大不同。因此，我預計，我們在債務市場內交易的利差類型（至少在本地市場上通常比其他任何人都好）將保持這種狀態。 RWA 觀點，您提到這是一個非常公平的問題。

We've given guidance of GBP 220 million to GBP 225 million, and that's over the course of 2024. We've stuck with that guidance despite some material headwinds within the context of regulatory measures, in particular, again, CRD IV. We thought a lot about that, Chris. We thought about should we be sticking with it in the context of the CRD IV headwinds, and we determined that we would do because we had opportunities in part to offset those regulatory headwinds with NPV positive securitizations and other forms of optimization. And as you know, from our numbers, we developed those over the course of 2023 and expect to continue that in 2024.

我們給出了 2.2 億至 2.25 億英鎊的指導，而且是在 2024 年期間。儘管在監管措施（尤其是 CRD IV）的背景下存在一些重大阻力，但我們仍然堅持這一指導。我們對此想了很多，克里斯。我們考慮過在 CRD IV 逆風的背景下是否應該堅持下去，我們決定這樣做，因為我們有機會透過 NPV 正證券化和其他形式的優化來部分抵消這些監管逆風。如您所知，根據我們的數據，我們在 2023 年開發了這些產品，並預計在 2024 年繼續開發。

That then enables us to stick with the guidance, which I hope from a shareholder point of view is good news. We remain very committed to controlling RWA growth. When we look towards 2026, there are a couple of things going on. One is the organic growth in the business. Charlie mentioned some of the lending ambitions, for example, in that context. And that will clearly add on RWAs. Two is CRD IV. We've hopefully given guidance around that of the incremental GBP 5 billion subject to PRA confirmation, but that's where we expect it to land there or thereabouts.

這使我們能夠堅持指導方針，我希望從股東的角度來看這是個好消息。我們仍然致力於控制 RWA 的成長。當我們展望 2026 年時，會發生一些事情。一是業務的有機成長。例如，查理在這方面提到了一些貸款野心。這顯然會增加 RWA。二是CRD IV。我們希望就需要 PRA 確認的增量 50 億英鎊給予指導，但這就是我們預計它會達到的水平。

Three is the expectation for Basel 3.1, which at the moment, as you know, from our perspective, at least, we do not expect it to make any difference in the near term. That might be give or take a few hundred million, but it isn't necessarily much more than that. So Basel 3.1, we see is net neutral over this time period. And then finally, as I said earlier on, we remain committed to optimization, which is a good thing to do because it's NPV-positive.

三是對巴塞爾3.1的期望，正如你所知，目前，至少從我們的角度來看，我們預計它不會在短期內產生任何影響。這可能需要幾億美元，但不一定比這個多得多。因此，我們認為巴塞爾 3.1 在這段時間內是淨中性的。最後，正如我之前所說，我們仍然致力於優化，這是一件好事，因為它的 NPV 為正。

And therefore, you ought to do it anyway, no matter what the regulatory situation is. But nonetheless, it also gives us a tool, if you like, or a lever to assess any RWA increases that might be beyond our initial expectations with optimization in mind. So Chris, I'm not answering your question directly. I'm not giving 2026 RWA expectations, but you can see that effectively, we would expect regulatory measures to be either neutral or neutralized by our RWA optimization. But then at the same time, perhaps some lending growth beyond what we see in '24 to an increased pattern of RWAs in the period thereafter, but we'll update you on what that means over the course of the next period.

因此，無論監管情況如何，您都應該這樣做。但儘管如此，它也為我們提供了一個工具（如果您願意的話）或一個槓桿來評估任何 RWA 的增加，這些增加可能超出我們在考慮優化的情況下的最初預期。所以克里斯，我不會直接回答你的問題。我沒有給出 2026 年 RWA 預期，但您可以看到，實際上，我們預計監管措施要么是中性的，要么被我們的 RWA 優化所抵消。但與此同時，也許一些貸款增長超出了我們在 24 年看到的水平，導致此後一段時間內 RWA 的增加，但我們將在下一個時期向您通報這意味著什麼。

And that is, of course, we're front-end loaded actually the CRD IV impact in 2023.

當然，我們的前端實際上​​加載了 2023 年 CRD IV 的影響。

It's Aman from Barclays. I've got 2 questions. One on deposit pricing and the second on strategic revenues. Deposit pricing, interested in how confident you are in being able to react to base rate cuts in a timely fashion. I do note that the FCA seemingly externally took a keen interest in pass-throughs, particularly towards the end of the cycle. I think you also passed through ultimately less than some of your peers, which is obviously a reflection of your franchise strength, but also arguably gives you a little bit less room to kind of cut on that part of the book on the way down.

這是巴克萊銀行的安縵。我有 2 個問題。第一個是關於存款定價，第二個是關於策略收入。存款定價，感興趣的是您對能夠及時對基本利率下調做出反應的信心。我確實注意到，FCA 表面上似乎對傳遞非常感興趣，尤其是在週期結束時。我認為你最終的通過率也低於你的一些同行，這顯然反映了你的特許經營實力，但也可以說給你在下降的過程中削減這本書的那部分的空間。

So interested in your thoughts on your reaction function without giving away your commercial secrets. Relatedly, could I ask about term deposit pricing. So I think about a year ago, you were originating term deposits comfortably below the relevant swap materially below. So should we be thinking about this kind of repricing headwind on term deposits. So you're retaining the stock, but at narrow spreads. Is that a material consideration that we should be thinking about this year? So that's one question, believe it or not. The second -- I have to take the chance while Charlie is here around strategic revenue.

對您對反應函數的想法非常感興趣，而不會洩露您的商業秘密。相關地，我可以詢問定期存款定價嗎？因此，我認為大約一年前，您發放的定期存款遠低於相關掉期利率。因此，我們是否應該考慮定期存款的這種重新定價逆風。所以你保留了股票，但價差很小。這是我們今年應該考慮的重要考量嗎？所以這是一個問題，不管你信不信。第二個——當查理在這裡圍繞著戰略收入時，我必須抓住機會。

So interested for your observation about your progress there. It's remarkable that you're 1/3 of the way through your GBP 1.5 billion target. I would say it doesn't feel like you're a third of way through because we can't see it in terms of the kind of net impact on revenue. So could you kind of give us a view on what you think is going kind of better or worse than your expectations? And any color on that residual billion? How much of it is OOI versus NII from here?

對你對你在那裡的進展的觀察很感興趣。值得注意的是，您已完成 15 億英鎊目標的 1/3。我想說的是，感覺還沒有完成三分之一，因為我們看不到它對收入的淨影響。那麼您能否告訴我們您認為哪些方面比您的預期更好或更差？剩下的十億有什麼顏色嗎？這裡有多少是 OOI 與 NII 的比較？

So obviously, good questions. Thank you for that. Just on deposit pricing, your 2 points, just in terms of can we respond in a timely way? The answer is yes. And obviously, that's something that we worked on last year. Again, the issue on deposit pricing and like mortgage pricing is mortgage pricing, obviously, it's just a new price for frontbook customers, you can do that very quickly. Deposit pricing, we normally have to inform 15 million to 20 million customers and give the appropriate level of warning and set that up. So we have the ability to do that quickly, but actually need to give appropriate warning. The one thing I'd say is I think the regulators will be less concerned about timely passing of rate cuts than they were around increases. So we're in a good place operationally let's see how the competitive dynamic plays out around that, which I think is important.

顯然，這是個好問題。謝謝你。就存款定價而言，您的2點意見是，我們能否及時回應？答案是肯定的。顯然，這是我們去年所做的工作。再次強調，存款定價問題和抵押貸款定價一樣，都是抵押貸款定價，顯然，這只是針對前台客戶的新價格，您可以很快做到這一點。存款定價，我們通常要通知1500萬到2000萬客戶，並給予適當級別的警告並進行設定。所以我們有能力快速做到這一點，但實際上需要給予適當的警告。我要說的一件事是，我認為監管機構不會像擔心升息那樣關心及時通過降息。因此，我們在營運上處於有利位置，讓我們看看圍繞這一點的競爭動態如何發揮作用，我認為這很重要。

And then on time deposits, yes, I even said at this stage last year, I'm never worried of when the rate -- when there's a high yield curve around time deposits because you can price it at a good place for margin. The interesting time, which is the one that's going to come in this year is when if the yield curve is now lower than your Instant Access or base rates, and you've got existing time deposits that are coming off, what happens to the competitive pricing to retain those. And I have seen at other [late] stages in the U.K. and in other markets, people don't want to retain those deposits, start pricing either at the cost of funding those TDs or even negatively.

然後是定期存款，是的，我甚至在去年的這個階段說過，我從不擔心利率何時——當定期存款周圍存在高收益率曲線時，因為你可以將其定價在一個良好的保證金位置。有趣的時刻，即今年即將到來的時刻，是如果收益率曲線現在低於您的即時訪問或基本利率，並且您現有的定期存款即將到期，那麼競爭性的存款會發生什麼？定價以保留這些。我在英國和其他市場的其他[後期]階段看到，人們不想保留這些存款，開始以為這些 TD 提供資金的成本甚至是負數定價。

That obviously hasn't happened yet. That's in front of us. As you know, if the time deposits are -- if our deposits are in time deposits, that doesn't benefit the structural hedge. So there's no issue around that from a structural hedge perspective. And I think what we're seeing so far is we're able, as we've seen the yield curve come down and our time deposit rates come down, we're still competing and winning.

這顯然還沒有發生。那就在我們面前。如您所知，如果定期存款是—如果我們的存款是定期存款，這並不利於結構性對沖。因此，從結構性對沖的角度來看，這不存在任何問題。我認為到目前為止我們看到的是，正如我們看到殖利率曲線下降和定期存款利率下降一樣，我們仍然能夠競爭並獲勝。

So we'll give you more update as we go into this, but it's definitely one to watch. I'm not worried about it from our fundamental economics and our starting point is strong.

因此，我們會在討論此問題時為您提供更多更新信息，但這絕對值得一看。從我們的基本經濟角度來看，我並不擔心這一點，而且我們的起點很強大。

Strategic revenues. So if I can disagree with you a little bit. I think you have seen the benefits of some of the things we're doing. Other operating income is, as I said, up 10% year-on-year. We saw growth last year. I think we said last year, it was about 7% to 8% underlying growth. The numbers were a bit noisy last year because of some of the one-offs, especially in the insurance business.

戰略收入。所以如果我可以不同意你一點點。我想您已經看到了我們正在做的一些事情的好處。正如我所說，其他營業收入比去年同期成長了10%。去年我們看到了成長。我想我們去年說過，基本成長約為 7% 至 8%。去年的數字有點吵雜，因為存在一些一次性的情況，尤其是在保險業。

So that's the most -- that's the easiest way for you to see some of the growth. And I'll talk about where we're doing well and where there are some challenges relative to what we set out historically. As you'll recall, today, we've said -- we've delivered GBP 0.5 billion, GBP 500 million, of revenue growth, net new from the investments and GBP 0.7 billion of cost efficiencies, that's relative to the GBP 0.7 billion and GBP 1.5 billion of revenue growth in '26.

所以這是最——這是你看到一些增長的最簡單的方法。我將討論我們在哪些方面做得很好，以及哪些方面與我們歷史上設定的目標相比存在一些挑戰。您可能還記得，今天我們說過——我們已經實現了 5 億英鎊、5 億英鎊的收入增長、來自投資的淨新增長和 7 億英鎊的成本效率，這是相對於 7 億英鎊而言的2026 年營收成長15 億英鎊。

So that's a good place, and it's actually ahead of where I thought we'd be when I talk to you in February 2022 starting from new and back building these businesses, it's always slightly back-end loaded. We're actually ahead of gain on the revenues, which is good.

所以這是一個好地方，它實際上領先於我在 2022 年 2 月與您交談時所設想的情況，從新建和回建這些業務開始，它總是有輕微的後端負載。我們實際上已經領先於收入成長，這很好。

Where do I see the progress? It's across the pitch, and then there's 2 areas probably that have been more challenging, which is largely linked to the external environment. So in our Corporate and Institutional business, you've seen the growth in OOI. You can also then go and look at the market shares, go look at U.K. DCM, look at our share of FX, look at the awards and our growth in transaction banking.

我在哪裡可以看到進展？在球場的另一邊，有兩個領域可能更具挑戰性，這在很大程度上與外部環境有關。因此，在我們的企業和機構業務中，您已經看到了 OOI 的成長。然後，您還可以查看市場份額、英國 DCM、我們的外匯份額、獎項以及我們在交易銀行業務的成長。

We've learned -- there were 5 big university mandates last year. We won all 5. That's never happened in our history. So there's great evidence in that business. In Business & Commercial Banking, that's been one of the areas that's been most negatively impacted by the market environment. When we started this strategy, we thought we'd see underlying growth in SMEs on both sides of the balance sheet.

我們了解到——去年有 5 個大型大學授權。我們贏得了全部 5 場比賽。這在我們的歷史上從未發生過。因此，這項業務有很好的證據。在商業銀行業務中，這是受市場環境負面影響最嚴重的領域之一。當我們開始這項策略時，我們認為我們會看到資產負債表兩側中小企業的潛在成長。

What we've actually seen is both sides deleveraging, cash flows, reducing and lending levels debt reducing. Underpinning that, we pulled out some key growth areas, and we are seeing progress. So for example, our merchant acquiring business, which again is a nice fee-based business and is really linked to some of our broader relationships into the large corporate side.

我們實際上看到的是雙方去槓桿化、現金流減少和貸款水準減少。在此基礎上，我們退出了一些關鍵的成長領域，並且我們正在看到進展。例如，我們的商家收單業務，這又是一項很好的收費業務，並且確實與我們與大公司方面的一些更廣泛的關係相關。

We've seen good year-on-year growth, that needs to get to scale to deliver the underlying profitability that we want. And we focus on trading businesses because this business historically had been largely a secured lending business, which is great. So it's not an or strategy, but it's an and. And we're building out this digital transactional banking, working capital proposition, and we're growing customers in that space.

我們已經看到了良好的同比成長，需要擴大規模才能實現我們想要的基本獲利能力。我們專注於貿易業務，因為這項業務歷史上主要是擔保貸款業務，這很好。所以這不是“或”策略，而是“與”策略。我們正在建立數位交易銀行業務、營運資本主張，並且我們正在該領域增加客戶。

It's tiny relative to the net changes in that balance sheet. So it's hard for you to see. So that's an area which is more difficult because of the trading environment. Insurance, protection, investments, we talked about the annuity business, market share is up after the difficulty around pricing in home insurance.

相對於資產負債表的淨變動來說，這是很小的。所以你很難看到。因此，由於交易環境的原因，這是一個更困難的領域。保險、保障、投資，我們談到了年金業務，在家庭保險定價困難之後，市佔率有所上升。

We saw a really strong year. Our ability to start bringing protection products to our mortgage customers. We'll give you more evidence of that later in the year, but we're seeing good upticks in that. And our workplace pensions business is the #2 business in the U.K., and we have strong ambitions. We want to be #1. So we're seeing the growth in that business.

我們看到了非常強勁的一年。我們有能力開始為抵押貸款客戶提供保護產品。我們將在今年稍後向您提供更多證據，但我們看到這方面的良好成長。我們的工作場所退休金業務是英國第二大業務，我們雄心勃勃。我們想成為#1。所以我們看到該業務的成長。

On the relationship bank, I won't go through everything. Mass Affluent, we gave you some of the stats. We're seeing growth in Mass Affluent, growth in Mass Affluent balances. We've launched a new investment service, that's small, and that's slightly slower than we thought it would be partly because interest rates have been so strong on savings, but we're now live with a ready-made investment product.

關於關係銀行，我不會經歷所有事情。大眾富裕，我們給了你一些統計數據。我們看到大眾富裕人群的成長，大眾富裕人群餘額的成長。我們推出了一項新的投資服務，規模很小，而且比我們想像的要慢一些，部分原因是儲蓄利率太高，但我們現在使用的是現成的投資產品。

And I mentioned earlier that one of the things we're really interested is we start to bring that back to U.K. banking, investments as by the U.K. banking. More than 50% of the customers that have engaged with that service are below 35, and they're doing monthly contributions. So that's going to take some time to scale, but that's really important for lots of reasons.

我之前提到過，我們真正感興趣的事情之一是我們開始將其帶回英國銀行業，即英國銀行業的投資。超過 50% 使用該服務的客戶年齡在 35 歲以下，並且每月進行捐款。因此，這將需要一些時間來擴展，但由於多種原因，這確實很重要。

And then finally, on our customer -- consumer lendings business, you've seen the growth in the transport business. We've over-delivered on our Tesco franchise. We're seeing underlying growth in the consumer finance business. And we've announced this embedded finance business. It's going to take some time for that to become material from an economics perspective.

最後，在我們的客戶—消費貸款業務上，您已經看到了運輸業務的成長。我們已經超額交付了特易購特許經營權。我們看到消費金融業務的潛在成長。我們已經宣布了這項嵌入式金融業務。從經濟學的角度來看，這需要一些時間才能變得重要。

But strategically, it's really important. The other area that's been more challenging than we originally laid out is mortgages, and we've had the discussion around, I remember, we were the first institution to say we thought mortgage margins would go down to about 75 to 100 basis points, and we said that in February '22 and there was kind of deep intake in the room around that.

但從戰略上來說，這確實很重要。比我們最初提出的更具挑戰性的另一個領域是抵押貸款，我們已經進行了討論，我記得，我們​​是第一家表示我們認為抵押貸款利潤率將下降至約75 至100 個基點的機構，而我們在 22 年 2 月就說過這件事，房間裡對此深有感觸。

Obviously, both the scale of the mortgage market and the margins have been significantly tighter than we thought originally. The resilience of the business model has more than offset that because we increased our margin guidance for 2026 by 300 basis points at the start of 2023.

顯然，抵押貸款市場的規模和利潤率都比我們最初想像的要緊得多。商業模式的彈性足以抵消這一影響，因為我們在 2023 年初將 2026 年的利潤指導提高了 300 個基點。

But that's a more challenging market. Now the good news is we haven't been standing still and we'll continue to give you updates, so I can see the CEO of the business over there around where we've been investing to engage customers, be better at remortgaging and then compete in parts of the mortgage market, and there's some really good stories within that.

但這是一個更具挑戰性的市場。現在好消息是我們並沒有停滯不前，我們將繼續向您提供最新消息，這樣我就可以看到那邊的業務首席執行官，我們一直在投資吸引客戶，更好地進行再抵押，然後在抵押貸款市場的部分領域展開競爭，其中有一些非常好的故事。

But obviously, as you've seen, our growth in mortgages has been behind where we wanted to be. So yes, we have real confidence around the GBP 1.5 billion by '26, to GBP 700 million by the end of this year. For me, the more important thing is to look at the underlying growth in market shares and then the resilience and stability of these franchises.

但顯然，正如您所看到的，我們的抵押貸款成長一直落後於我們的預期。所以，是的，我們確實有信心在 26 年達到 15 億英鎊，到今年年底達到 7 億英鎊。對我來說，更重要的是專注於市場份額的潛在成長，然後是這些特許經營權的彈性和穩定性。

Recognizing, as you know, that the majority of Lloyds Banking Group's businesses have been losing market share for the previous decade. So we're -- you can already look at the data and see that stabilized, and we've turned the corner. And these strategic areas are growing well.

如您所知，勞埃德銀行集團的大部分業務在過去十年中一直在失去市場份額。所以我們——你已經可以查看數據並看到穩定下來，我們已經度過了難關。這些戰略領域發展良好。

Excellent. We're nearly 15 minutes over. So I think that feels like a great place to stop. I am conscious that there are a couple of other questions, which we'll deal with either after this in the form of conference or indeed directly. But otherwise, let me just hand back briefly to Charlie just for final...

出色的。我們已經快結束 15 分鐘了。所以我認為這感覺像是一個停下來的好地方。我意識到還有一些其他問題，我們將在這之後以會議的形式或直接直接解決。但除此之外，讓我簡單地交還給查理最後的…

Thanks, Douglas. Well, look, just very briefly, thank you so much for coming today, and thank you very much for your attention. 15 minutes over, this is the end of a very long season for you. I'm guessing you started with the American banks in January, and we're near the end of the Europeans in the U.K. So really appreciate the time.

謝謝，道格拉斯。嗯，聽著，非常簡單，非常感謝您今天的到來，也非常感謝您的關注。 15 分鐘結束了，這對你來說是一個漫長的賽季的結束。我猜你在一月就開始與美國銀行合作，而我們在英國的歐洲銀行已經接近尾聲了，所以我非常感謝這段時間。

One kind of sales pitch, if that's all right. We have our Mass Affluent and IP&I seminar on the 20th of March. It will be part of [Cher's] insurance business, not the whole thing, the investments piece, but that's going to be another example where we can unpick the covers of what we are doing and we're making progress. So if you're interested in that, please join us for that. And again, thank you very, very much for joining today.

一種推銷方式，如果可以的話。我們於 3 月 20 日舉辦大眾富裕與智慧財產權與智慧財產權研討會。這將是[Cher]保險業務的一部分，而不是整個業務、投資部分，但這將是另一個例子，我們可以揭開我們正在做的事情的面紗，並且我們正在取得進展。因此，如果您對此感興趣，請加入我們。再次非常非常感謝您今天的加入。