利安德巴塞爾 (LYB) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the LyondellBasell teleconference.

歡迎參加利安德巴塞爾電話會議。

At the request of LyondellBasell, this conference is being recorded for instant replay purposes. Following today's presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session.

應利安德巴塞爾公司的要求，本次會議將進行錄影，以便即時重播。今天的報告結束後，我們將進行問答環節。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. David Kinney, Head of Investor relations. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

現在我將把會議交給投資者關係主管大衛金尼先生。謝謝您，先生。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝接線生。

Before we begin the discussion, I would like to point out that a slide presentation that accompanies today's call is available on our website at investors.lyondellbasell.com.

在開始討論之前，我想指出，今天電話會議的幻燈片簡報可在我們的網站 investors.lyondellbasell.com 上找到。

Today, we will be discussing our business results while making reference to some forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures. We believe the forward-looking statements are based upon reasonable assumptions and the alternative measures are useful to investors. Nonetheless, the forward-looking statements are subject to significant risk and uncertainty. We encourage you to learn more about the factors that could lead our actual results to differ by reviewing the cautionary statements in the presentation slides and our regulatory filings, which are also available on our Investor Relations website.

今天，我們將討論我們的業務成果，同時提及一些前瞻性陳述和非GAAP財務指標。我們認為這些前瞻性陳述是基於合理的假設，而替代指標對投資人是有用的。然而，這些前瞻性陳述存在重大風險和不確定性。我們鼓勵您透過查閱簡報中的警示性聲明和我們的監管文件（這些文件也可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到）來了解可能導致我們實際結果與預期結果不同的因素。

Comments made on this call will be in regard to our underlying business results, using non-GAAP financial measures such as EBITDA and earnings per share excluding identified items. Additional documents on our Investor website provide reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP financial measures, together with other disclosures including the earnings release and our business results discussion.

本次電話會議中將就我們的基本業務績效發表評論，使用非公認會計準則財務指標，例如 EBITDA 和每股盈餘（不包括特定項目）。我們投資者網站上的其他文件提供了非GAAP財務指標與GAAP財務指標的調節表，以及其他披露信息，包括盈利報告和我們的業務成果討論。

A recording of this call will be available by telephone beginning at 1:00 PM Eastern Time, today until March 2, by calling 8776606853 in the United States and 2016127415 outside the United States. The access code for both numbers is 13746203.

從今天下午 1 點（美國東部時間）起至 3 月 2 日，可透過撥打以下電話收聽本次通話的錄音：美國境內撥打 8776606853，美國境外撥打 2016127415。這兩個號碼的存取代碼都是 13746203。

Joining today's call will be Peter Vanacker, LyondellBasell's Chief Executive Officer; our current CFO, Michael McMurray; our incoming CFO, Agustin Izquierdo; Kim Foley, our Executive Vice President of Global Olefins and Polyolefins and Refining; Aaron Ledet, our EVP of Intermediates & Derivatives; and Torkel Rhenman, our EVP of Advanced Polymer Solutions.

今天參加電話會議的有：利安德巴塞爾執行長 Peter Vanacker；現任財務長 Michael McMurray；即將上任的財務長 Agustin Izquierdo；全球烯烴、聚烯烴和煉油執行副總裁 Kim Foley；中間體和衍生物執行副總裁 Aaron Ledet；以及先進聚合物解決方案執行副總裁 Torkel Rhenman。

During today's call, we will focus on fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results and progress on our strategic initiatives. We will also discuss current market dynamics and our near-term outlook.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將重點討論 2024 年第四季和全年業績以及我們在策略舉措方面取得的進展。我們也將討論當前的市場動態和近期展望。

With that being said, I would now like to turn the call over to Peter.

接下來，我想把電話交給彼得。

Thank you, Dave and welcome to all of you. We appreciate you joining us, today, as we discuss our fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results. I'm very proud of how our people navigated challenges, leveraged our strengths, and remained laser-focused on our strategy throughout a year that was not easy for our industry, particularly the fourth quarter.

謝謝你，戴夫，也歡迎各位。感謝您今天與我們一起討論我們 2024 年第四季和全年業績。我為我們的員工在過去一年中，尤其是在第四季度，面對行業挑戰時，能夠克服困難、發揮自身優勢並始終專注於我們的策略而感到非常自豪。

Let's begin, as we always do, with our safety results on slide 3.

讓我們像往常一樣，從幻燈片 3 上的安全結果開始。

During 2024, our employees and contractors demonstrated their commitment to outstanding safety performance. I am proud to share that our total recordable injury rate for 2024 was 0.13, our second-lowest year for the company.

2024年，我們的員工和承包商展現了他們對卓越安全表現的承諾。我很自豪地宣布，我們 2024 年的總可記錄工傷率是 0.13，這是公司歷史上第二低的年份。

Even more impressive, as LYB continues to grow, we achieved the lowest number of injuries in our history. This truly is a testament to our goal-zero commitment to safety and operational excellence. With such an impressive safety record, I would like to take a moment to highlight some of the amazing milestones we have reached this year.

更令人印象深刻的是，隨著 LYB 的不斷發展，我們實現了公司歷史上最低的受傷人數。這充分證明了我們「零事故目標」對安全和卓越營運的承諾。鑑於我們取得瞭如此令人矚目的安全記錄，我想藉此機會重點介紹我們今年取得的一些令人矚目的里程碑。

We celebrated [six sites], surpassing 10-plus years of no injuries and our APS segment at record-breaking safety performance, reducing their incident rate by 39% compared to 2023. Operating safely is a prerequisite to achieving high reliability and creating shareholder value.

我們慶祝了[六個站點]連續10多年無事故，我們的APS部門也取得了破紀錄的安全績效，與2023年相比，事故率降低了39%。安全營運是實現高可靠性和創造股東價值的先決條件。

I applaud our team for what we have achieved in 2024 and look forward to carrying this momentum into 2025, as we continue to strive for goal-zero performance.

我為團隊在 2024 年的成就表示讚賞，並期待將這種勢頭延續到 2025 年，我們將繼續努力實現零失誤的目標。

Let's now turn to slide 4 to discuss our financial results.

現在讓我們翻到第 4 張投影片，討論一下我們的財務表現。

There is no getting around it. 2024 was another challenging year for petrochemicals. However, in spite of the headwinds, our strategic focus on value creation maximized cash generation and delivered solid returns to shareholders.

無可否認，2024年對石化產業來說又是充滿挑戰的一年。然而，儘管面臨許多不利因素，我們以創造價值為策略重點，最大限度地提高了現金流，並為股東帶來了穩健的回報。

Earnings were $6.40 per share, with EBITDA of $4.3 billion. LYB generated $3.8 billion of cash from operations, with an outstanding 90% cash conversion ratio. We returned $1.9 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and repurchases.

每股收益為6.40美元，EBITDA為43億美元。 LYB公司透過經營活動產生了 38 億美元的現金，現金轉換率高達 90%。我們以股利和股票回購的形式向股東返還了 19 億美元。

Now, let's turn to slide 5 and take a moment to reflect on where LYB and the industry are in the current cycle.

現在，讓我們翻到第 5 張投影片，花點時間思考一下 LYB 和整個產業在當前週期中的位置。

Across our key businesses, fourth-quarter industry margins are about 60% of historical averages, underscoring the depth of the current downturn. Let me share three thoughts on this challenging environment.

在我們各個主要業務領域，第四季產業利潤率約為歷史平均的 60%，凸顯了當前經濟衰退的嚴重程度。針對這個充滿挑戰的環境，我想分享三點想法。

First, this deep and prolonged downturn is not permanent. Global demand for durable goods will inevitably return following this post-pandemic downturn. Second, LYB has the potential to capture substantial upside from the cyclical recovery in volumes and margin. And third, LYB's strategic progress in unlocking incremental value could enable us to surpass our historical cycle performance.

首先，這種深度且持續時間長的衰退並非永久性的。疫情後的經濟低迷過後，全球對耐用品的需求必將回升。其次，LYB 有可能從銷售和利潤率的周期性復甦中獲得巨大的成長空間。第三，LYB 在釋放增量價值方面的策略進展可能使我們能夠超越我們歷史上的週期表現。

The opportunity is apparent in our sizable polypropylene business, where fourth-quarter margins are less than 50% of historical averages and operating rates are at least 5% to 10% points below industry norms, reflecting the severity of the downturn. For polyethylene, the margin compression is smaller but the higher unit margins for the integrated value chain provide meaningful upside.

在我們規模龐大的聚丙烯業務中，機會顯而易見。該業務第四季的利潤率不到歷史平均的 50%，開工率比業界標準低至少 5% 到 10 個百分點，這反映了經濟衰退的嚴重程度。對於聚乙烯而言，利潤率壓縮較小，但一體化價值鏈較高的單位利潤率提供了有意義的成長空間。

In contrast, our oxyfuels business is currently experiencing typical fourth-quarter seasonality. But the recent peak seen in 2023, when full-year margins averaged $560 per ton, provide a measure of the upside available for this business.

相較之下，我們的含氧燃料業務目前正經歷典型的第四季季節性波動。但 2023 年出現的近期峰值，全年平均利潤率達到每噸 560 美元，顯示該產業還有很大的上漲空間。

We recognize that current dynamics represent more than just typical cyclical pressures. They also reflect some structural shifts in the industry, relative to prior cycles. Slower global growth, particularly in China, structurally higher energy costs, regulatory impacts in Europe and other regions, along with the potential for capacity additions to outpace demand have introduced sectoral challenges. These shifts are contributing to the depth and duration of the current downturn and will likely moderate future [mid-cycle] margins, relative to the prior decade.

我們認識到，當前的動態變化不僅代表了典型的周期性壓力。與之前的周期相比，它們也反映了該行業的一些結構性變化。全球經濟成長放緩，尤其是在中國，能源成本結構性上漲，歐洲和其他地區的監管影響，以及產能成長可能超過需求，都為能源產業帶來了挑戰。這些變化加劇了當前經濟衰退的深度和持續時間，與前十年相比，未來（週期中期）的幅度可能會有所緩和。

This is why our strategic initiatives to unlock sustainable value across our portfolio are essential. These actions are enabling us to pivot to high-value opportunities and respond more effectively to changing market dynamics.

因此，我們為釋放投資組合中可持續價值所採取的策略性舉措至關重要。這些舉措使我們能夠轉向高價值機遇，並更有效地應對不斷變化的市場動態。

Our focal points during 2025 for the transformation of our Houston Refinery, the strategic review of select European assets, and strong execution of our global operating model. We are confident that these actions will lead to a durable uplift of our EBITDA margins and provide lasting benefits for navigating future cycles.

2025 年，我們的重點工作包括：改造休士頓煉油廠、對部分歐洲資產進行策略審查以及大力執行我們的全球營運模式。我們相信，這些措施將使我們的 EBITDA 利潤率持續提升，並為應對未來的周期帶來持久的益處。

Now, if you turn to slide 6, we highlight the progress on our strategy during 2024.

現在，請翻到第 6 張投影片，我們將重點放在我們在 2024 年的策略進展。

In nearly two years since our Capital Markets Day, LyondellBasell has unlocked approximately $1.3 billion of incremental normalized EBITDA through the execution of our three-pillar strategy. With focus and urgency, we are leveraging our strengths and extending our advantages.

自我們舉辦資本市場日以來的近兩年時間裡，利安德巴塞爾透過執行我們的三大支柱策略，釋放了約 13 億美元的增量正常化 EBITDA。我們正以專注和迫切感，發揮自身優勢，擴大自身優勢。

The successful start-up of our PO/TBA Plant in 2023 is adding approximately $450 million, on a mid-cycle basis, to our normalized EBITDA by leveraging our proprietary technology and advantaged feedstock positions in these attractive markets.

我們的 PO/TBA 工廠於 2023 年成功投產，利用我們在這些有吸引力的市場中的專有技術和優勢原料地位，在中期基礎上，將為我們正常的 EBITDA 增加約 4.5 億美元。

I'm very pleased to report that our Value Enhancement Program is exceeding our expectations. In 2024, the VEP unlocked a year and run rate of more than $800 million of recurring annual EBITDA improvements while contributing approximately $600 million to the 2024 EBITDA.

我非常高興地報告，我們的價值提升計劃超出了我們的預期。2024 年，VEP 釋放了超過 8 億美元的年度經常性 EBITDA 改善，同時為 2024 年 EBITDA 貢獻了約 6 億美元。

In addition, we successfully completed the divestment of our non-core EO&D business, leveraging the sale proceeds to strengthen our portfolio by acquiring a 35% share in NATPET -- that cost-advantaged, integrated, fully-propylene joint venture.

此外，我們成功完成了非核心EO&D業務的剝離，利用出售所得資金收購了NATPET（具有成本優勢的一體化全丙烯合資企業）35%的股份，從而加強了我們的投資組合。

During 2025, you can expect additional progress towards toward capturing value through our strategic priority. We are confident in the progress of our VEP program and expect to exceed our goal to achieve a year-end run rate of $1 billion of recurring annual EBITDA improvements.

2025 年，您可以期待我們在透過策略重點實現價值創造方面取得更多進展。我們對 VEP 計畫的進展充滿信心，並期望能夠超額完成目標，實現年底經常性年度 EBITDA 改善 10 億美元。

As you have, seen our APS transformation has encountered headwinds from automotive production declines at some of our key customers in North America and Europe. But the improved customer focus of our APS team has allowed LYB to increase our win rate for new project approvals.

正如您所看到的，由於我們在北美和歐洲的一些主要客戶的汽車產量下降，我們的APS轉型遇到了阻力。但是，我們APS團隊對客戶的關注度提高，使得LYB在新專案審批中的得標率有所提高。

And Yvonne's team is doing an excellent job in growing volumes in our Circular and Low Carbon Solutions business while our exit from the refining business remains on track.

Yvonne 的團隊在擴大我們循環和低碳解決方案業務的銷售方面做得非常出色，同時我們退出煉油業務的計劃也仍在按計劃進行。

At the same time, we are remaining extremely disciplined in how we allocate capital during this downturn by carefully prioritizing high-return capital projects and remaining steadfast to our highly-selective approach towards M&A.

同時，我們在經濟低迷時期仍保持著極其嚴格的資本配置紀律，優先考​​慮高回報的資本項目，並堅定不移地採取高度選擇性的併購方式。

As Michael will share, our capital expenditures will be lower than our prior guidance. But we have been mindful to ensure our prudence does not meaningfully impact future growth. And you can be assured that we will not compromise our M&A discipline to fill growth targets with risky or marginal acquisitions.

正如邁克爾將要介紹的那樣，我們的資本支出將低於我們先前的預期。但我們一直注意確保我們的謹慎不會對未來的成長產生實質影響。您可以放心，我們絕不會為了實現成長目標而進行風險高或收益微薄的收購，從而損害我們的併購紀律。

On slide 7, we provide an update on the growth of our Circular and Low Carbon Solutions or CLCS business. We continue to build CLCS through a focused strategy that leverages our existing infrastructure and our competitive advantages, such as innovative technologies and leading positions in growing markets with a global network of deep customer relationships.

在第 7 張投影片中，我們將介紹我們的循環和低碳解決方案 (CLCS) 業務的成長。我們將繼續透過一項重點策略來發展 CLCS，該策略充分利用我們現有的基礎設施和競爭優勢，例如創新技術和在不斷增長的市場中的領先地位，以及遍布全球的深厚客戶關係網絡。

Our CLCS business continues to grow at an impressive pace. CLCS volumes increased by 65% during 2024 to over 200,000 tons across product lines, based on mechanical recycling, chemical recycling, and renewable feedstocks. And we are generating attractive margins that are incremental to our fossil fuel-based polymers.

我們的 CLCS 業務繼續以驚人的速度成長。2024 年，CLCS 的產量增加了 65%，達到 20 萬噸以上（涵蓋所有產品線），主要得益於機械回收、化學回收和再生原料。而且，我們正在創造可觀的利潤，這些利潤是相對於我們化石燃料基聚合物而言的增量。

Our CLCS business is targeting $1 billion of incremental EBITDA, from 2 million tons of annual volumes by 2030. Despite the challenges in the chemical industry over the past year, our 2024 CLCS margins and volumes are on track with our 2030 plan.

我們的 CLCS 業務目標是到 2030 年實現 10 億美元的增量 EBITDA，年產量達到 200 萬噸。儘管過去一年化學工業面臨諸多挑戰，但我們 2024 年 CLCS 的利潤率和銷售仍與我們的 2030 年計畫保持一致。

Please turn to slide 8 and let's take a look at our updated views on the supply-and-demand picture for circular plastics. Market demand for circular plastics remains robust. Consumer preferences., and brand-owner commitments to increase utilization of recycled plastics or driving demand growth, and European regulation is bolstering demand by mandating increased utilization of recycled content in plastic packaging.

請翻到第 8 張投影片，讓我們一起來看看我們對循環塑膠供需情況的最新看法。市場對循環塑膠的需求依然強勁。消費者的偏好，以及品牌所有者承諾增加再生塑膠的使用或推動需求成長，還有歐洲的法規透過強制增加塑膠包裝中再生材料的使用來提振需求。

But this transition to circularity takes time. Infrastructure for plastics waste collection and sorting needs to be built. Large companies like LYB are developing technologies and building assets to increase supply while smaller companies are having mixed success improving new technologies and launching businesses. We believe capacity growth will continue to be outpaced by rising demand.

但向循環經濟的轉型需要時間。需要建設塑膠垃圾收集和分類的基礎設施。像LYB這樣的大公司正在開發技術和建設資產以增加供應，而小公司在改進新技術和推出業務方面則是喜憂參半。我們認為產能成長速度將持續低於需求成長速度。

As brand owners discover the supply of circular plastics is not keeping pace with their growth plans, they are pragmatically deferring their targets for utilizing circular plastics. And some brand owners have revised previously ambitious targets to more realistic levels after considering the supply constraints. Demand growth is merely being delayed due to lack of capacity but not being eliminated.

由於品牌所有者發現循環塑膠的供應速度跟不上他們的成長計劃，他們務實地推遲了使用循環塑膠的目標。考慮到供應限制，一些品牌所有者已將先前雄心勃勃的目標調整為更切合實際的水平。由於產能不足，需求成長只是被延緩了，但並沒有消失。

As such, LYB and other industry observers are incorporating these constraints by scaling back 2030 forecast for industry capacity and the addressable markets. The [mega] trends and investment thesis remain intact. The market for circular plastics is expected to be short of supply and supportive of attractive margins for quite some time.

因此，LYB 和其他行業觀察人士正在考慮這些限制因素，下調 2030 年行業產能和目標市場的預測。宏觀趨勢和投資邏輯依然不變。預計循環塑膠市場在相當長的一段時間內將面臨供應短缺和利潤豐厚的局面。

LYB's strategy has not changed. The construction of our first MoReTec chemical-recycling facility in Germany is progressing well and we are planning MoReTec-2 for Houston, with regional hubs for sourcing and sorting plastic waste in both locations. We are leveraging LYB's technologies, operations, and global marketing network to execute our strategy and build a leading position in these attractive markets.

LYB的策略沒有改變。我們在德國的第一座 MoReTec 化學回收設施的建設進展順利，我們正在為休士頓規劃 MoReTec-2，並在這兩個地點設立區域中心，用於收集和分類塑膠垃圾。我們正在利用 LYB 的技術、營運和全球行銷網路來執行我們的策略，並在這些有吸引力的市場中建立領先地位。

Please turn to slide 9 and let's briefly review the evolving regulatory framework for circular plastics in Europe.

請翻到第 9 張投影片，讓我們簡單回顧一下歐洲循環塑膠不斷發展的監管框架。

While consumer preference is a dominant driver for circular plastics, forward-thinking regulation in Europe is also strengthening demand growth. In Europe, we see regulation moving in the right direction with PPWR, the new packaging and packaging waste regulation.

雖然消費者的偏好是循環塑膠的主要驅動力，但歐洲具有前瞻性的監管也在加強需求成長。在歐洲，我們看到新的包裝和包裝廢棄物法規 PPWR 的出台，標誌著監管正朝著正確的方向發展。

With mandatory levels of recycled content in packaging, we expect PPWR will drive meaningful incremental demand for circular plastics, on the order of 4 million to 5 million tons by 2030. And even more by 2040. LYB is well positioned, through its differentiated technologies and solutions, to take advantage of this growing opportunity.

隨著包裝中再生材料含量的強制性要求，我們預計 PPWR 將推動循環塑膠需求的顯著增長，到 2030 年將達到 400 萬至 500 萬噸。到2040年，這數字還會更高。LYB憑藉其差異化的技術和解決方案，已做好充分準備，把握這一不斷增長的機會。

Contact-sensitive packaging with circular content is likely to require polymers produced using chemical recycling. Our proprietary catalytic MoReTec technology, currently under construction in Germany, will provide a profitable commercial scale solution.

採用循環方式的接觸敏感包裝可能需要使用化學回收技術生產的聚合物。我們專有的 MoReTec 催化技術目前正在德國建設中，將提供獲利的商業規模解決方案。

Before I turn over the call, I would like to take a moment to share my appreciation for our CFO, Michael McMurray. As we previously announced, Michael has decided to retire, in line with his personal plan, after five years of service to LyondellBasell.

在將電話轉接給下一位來賓之前，我想花一點時間表達我對我們財務長邁克爾·麥克默里的感謝。正如我們之前宣布的那樣，邁克爾已決定按照他的個人計劃退休，結束他在利安德巴塞爾公司的五年職業生涯。

Michael has been an incredible friend and thought partner over the past three years, as we developed and executed the new strategy for the company. In addition, Michael provided outstanding leadership for our global finance team, wise counsel to our commercial leaders, and oversaw the recapitalization of our balance sheet to lock in the most favorable rates and maturities we're likely to see in our lifetimes.

在過去的三年裡，麥可一直是我非常棒的朋友和思想夥伴，我們一起制定並執行了公司的新策略。此外，Michael 為我們的全球財務團隊提供了傑出的領導，為我們的商業領導人提供了明智的建議，並監督了我們資產負債表的資本重組，以鎖定我們有生之年可能遇到的最有利的利率和期限。

Chief, I thank you for your leadership and look forward to continuing our personal friendship for many years to come.

長官，感謝您的領導，並期待在未來的許多年裡繼續保持我們的友誼。

Peter, thank you for your kind words. You have also been a great friend and partner over the past three years. Thank you.

彼得，謝謝你的好意。過去三年裡，你也一直是我的好朋友和好夥伴。謝謝。

I also want to thank my team, my colleagues, and our Board. The last five years have been fun, rewarding, and challenging. And much has been accomplished.

我還要感謝我的團隊、同事和董事會。過去的五年既充滿樂趣，又富有成就感，同時也充滿挑戰。已經取得了許多成就。

LYB is a great company with great people and I'm confident the company is positioned for continued success.

LYB是一家很棒的公司，擁有很棒的員工，我相信公司已經做好了繼續成功的準備。

I look forward to following LYB's progress over the coming years. And finally, on my 50th and last earnings call as a public-company CFO, I thank all of you in the investing community. It has been a good ride.

我期待在未來幾年裡關注LYB的發展。最後，在我擔任上市公司財務長的第 50 次也是最後一次財報電話會議上，我要感謝投資界的各位。這段旅程很美好。

Thank you, Michael.

謝謝你，麥可。

I'm also pleased to share that our Board has selected Agustin Izquierdo to become LyondellBasell's next CFO, effective March 1. Agustin joined LYB in 2022, after 13 years of service in various commercial and financial roles at BASF and nearly a decade in Morgan Stanley's Investment Banking division. More recently, Augustin was responsible for LYB's O&P - Americas segment, with full P&L responsibility. Prior to that, he was a member of the I&D leadership team.

我也很高興地宣布，董事會已選定 Agustin Izquierdo 擔任 LyondellBasell 的下一任財務官，自 3 月 1 日起生效。Agustin 於 2022 年加入 LYB，此前他在巴斯夫擔任 13 年的各種商業和金融職務，並在摩根士丹利的投資銀行部門工作了近十年。最近，奧古斯丁負責 LYB 的 O&P - 美洲業務部門，並承擔全部損益責任。在此之前，他是 I&D 領導團隊的成員。

We're also pleased that Agustin is LYB's first CFO to have been promoted from within the company. We aim to continue developing top talent across all levels of the organization, as we step up our performance and culture.

我們也很高興 Agustin 是 LYB 首位從公司內部晉升的財務長。我們的目標是在提升公司績效和企業文化的同時，繼續在公司各個層面培養頂尖人才。

Agustin is with us here today. Would you like to say a few words, Agustin?

阿古斯丁今天和我們在一起。奧古斯丁，你想說幾句話嗎？

Certainly, Peter.

當然，彼得。

I am humbled, honored, and thrilled for this opportunity. And I would like to thank our Board, LYB's executive committee and the entire finance organization for their warm welcome.

我對這個機會感到無比榮幸、謙卑和激動。我還要感謝董事會、LYB執行委員會和整個財務部門的熱情歡迎。

I look forward to engaging with the investment community over the coming months and working to build on [micro strong] foundations to drive results for LYB.

我期待在接下來的幾個月與投資界進行交流，並努力在[微實力]的基礎上，為LYB創造業績。

Thank you, Augustin.

謝謝你，奧古斯丁。

Michael, can you please continue with a few words about our progress on capital allocation?

邁克爾，請你再簡單介紹一下我們在資本配置上的進展？

Absolutely, Peter. And good morning again, everyone.

當然，彼得。大家早安。

Let's continue with slide 10.

我們繼續看第10張投影片。

As Peter mentioned, we are laser-focused on advancing our strategic priorities while maintaining a robust balance sheet that serves us well throughout the cycle. At the same time, we are committed to returning cash to our shareholders through a growing dividend and share repurchases.

正如彼得所提到的，我們正全力推進我們的戰略重點，同時保持穩健的資產負債表，這使我們能夠在整個週期中都保持良好的發展勢頭。同時，我們致力於透過提高股利和股票回購來向股東返還現金。

During 2024, we invested $1.8 billion in capital expenditures, carefully prioritizing projects to balance investment and future profitability. Our acquisition of a 35% position, in a NATPET pet joint venture, was offset by the divestment of our non-core Ethylene Oxide & Derivatives business. We ended the year with $3.4 billion of cash and short-term investments and $8 billion of available liquidity.

2024 年，我們在資本支出方面投資了 18 億美元，並仔細確定了專案的優先順序，以平衡投資和未來的獲利能力。我們收購了 NATPET 寵物合資企業 35% 的股份，但同時剝離了我們非核心的環氧乙烷及其衍生物業務，從而抵消了上述收益。年底時，我們擁有 34 億美元的現金和短期投資，以及 80 億美元的可用流動資金。

Our strong cash conversion enabled us to maintain a resilient balance sheet and fully fund $1.7 billion in dividends and $195 million in share repurchases in May. We increased our quarterly dividend by 7%, marking the 14th consecutive year of annual dividend growth and continuing our track record of providing a secure, growing, and competitive dividend. And we are well positioned to extend our track record of growing our dividend in 2025. Our capital allocation priorities are unchanged and we remain committed to returning 70% of our free cash flow to shareholders over the long term.

我們強大的現金轉換能力使我們能夠保持穩健的資產負債表，並在 5 月份全額支付了 17 億美元的股息和 1.95 億美元的股票回購。我們將季度股息提高了 7%，連續第 14 年實現年度股息成長，並繼續保持提供安全、成長和具有競爭力的股息的良好記錄。我們已做好充分準備，在 2025 年繼續保持股息成長的良好記錄。我們的資本配置優先事項保持不變，我們仍然致力於在長期內將70%的自由現金流返還給股東。

Please turn to slide 11 and let me begin by highlighting the strong cash performance from our business during 2024.

請翻到第 11 頁，首先讓我先重點介紹一下我們公司在 2024 年強勁的現金流表現。

Over the past year, our business teams generated $3.8 billion of cash from operating activities. Cash on hand remained flat for the year at $3.4 billion.

過去一年，我們的業務團隊透過經營活動創造了 38 億美元的現金流。年內現金餘額維持不變，為34億美元。

During 2024, we achieved cash conversion of 90%, well above our long-term target of 80%. In addition to typical fourth-quarter drawdown of inventories, the company was able to pull forward the release of some of the working capital provided by the closure of the Houston Refinery.

2024 年，我們的現金轉換率達到了 90%，遠高於我們 80% 的長期目標。除了第四季度典型的庫存消耗外，該公司還能夠提前釋放因休士頓煉油廠關閉而獲得的部分營運資金。

During the first quarter, we will utilize some of our cash on hand to rebuild lean year and inventories in support of our upcoming Channelview turnaround and seasonal improvements across our businesses.

第一季度，我們將利用部分手頭現金來重建淡季庫存，以支援即將到來的 Channelview 業務轉型和各業務的季節性改進。

In the US, tax relief associated with Hurricane Beryl allowed us to defer cash tax payments during the second half of 2024. And these tax payments will be settled during February 2025.

在美國，與颶風貝裡爾相關的稅收減免使我們能夠推遲在 2024 年下半年繳納現金稅。這些稅款將於 2025 年 2 月結算。

Now, I'd like to provide an overview of the quarterly results of each of our segments, on slide 12.

現在，我想在第 12 張投影片上概述我們各個業務部門的季度業績。

LYB's business portfolio delivered $689 million of EBITDA during the fourth quarter. Sequentially higher ethane and energy cost and lower seasonal demand impacted both of our O&P segments. Overall, olefins and polyolefins demand remained soft, particularly in Europe where utilization rates remained low.

LYB 的業務組合在第四季度實現了 6.89 億美元的 EBITDA。乙烷和能源成本持續上漲，季節性需求下降，對我們的油氣產業兩個部門都產生了影響。整體而言，烯烴和聚烯烴的需求仍然疲軟，尤其是在歐洲，那裡的產能利用率仍然很低。

Additionally, margin compression on declining gasoline cracks and oxyfuels impacted profitability within the Intermediates and Derivatives segment.

此外，汽油裂解價差和含氧燃料價格的下降導致利潤率壓縮，影響了中間體和衍生性商品業務的獲利能力。

In 2025, refining activities will be reported as discontinued operations and our financial results will be reported under the five remaining segments.

2025 年，煉油業務將作為終止經營業務進行報告，我們的財務表現將以剩餘的五個業務板塊進行報告。

The fourth quarter included identified items of $852 million net of tax. The items included non-cash write-downs related to our O&P - Europe, - Asia, and - International and Advanced Polymer Solution segments of $769 million and $0.42 million, respectively in costs incurred from plans to exit the refining business.

第四季包括已確定的項目，稅後淨額為 8.52 億美元。這些項目包括與我們的 O&P - 歐洲、- 亞洲、- 國際和先進聚合物解決方案部門相關的非現金減值，分別為 7.69 億美元和 42 萬美元，這些成本是由於計劃退出煉油業務而產生的。

The impairments reflect the challenging market conditions for these businesses and include O&P EAI assets in our European strategic review and an Asian joint venture while the APS impairment was incurred in our specialty powders business.

這些減損反映了這些業務面臨的嚴峻市場環境，其中包括我們歐洲策略審查中的 O&P EAI 資產和一家亞洲合資企業，而 APS 減損則是在我們特種粉末業務中產生的。

Across the portfolio, a non-cash LIFO inventory valuation charge decreased pre-tax fourth-quarter results by approximately $23 million. As a reminder, our fourth quarter LIFO reconciliations reflect changes in inventory valuation over the full year. The LIFO reconciliation is not necessarily linked to our fourth-quarter valuations.

在整個投資組合中，非現金後進先出法存貨估值費用導致第四季度稅前利潤減少了約 2,300 萬美元。再次提醒，我們第四季度的後進先出法 (LIFO) 調整反映了全年庫存估值的變化。後進先出法 (LIFO) 調整與我們的第四季估值不一定相關。

Before we discuss our segment results in detail, let me discuss our capital expenditures plans for 2025 and beyond. Given the difficult operating environment and our disciplined approach to capital allocation, we are deferring some growth investments until later in the decade.

在詳細討論各業務板塊的表現之前，讓我先談談我們2025年及以後的資本支出計畫。鑑於當前艱難的經營環境以及我們對資本配置的嚴格把控，我們將一些成長投資推遲到本十年稍後進行。

For 2025, we expect our CapEx will be approximately $1.9 billion. Our 2025 capital plan includes approximately $700 million for profit-generating growth projects and $1.2 billion of sustaining investments to keep our assets running safely and reliably. The reduced capital plan prioritizes strategic investments in our CLCS business, our second tranche of Flex capacity, and high-return projects in our Value Enhancement Program.

我們預計到 2025 年，我們的資本支出將約為 19 億美元。我們的 2025 年資本計畫包括約 7 億美元用於獲利成長項目，以及 12 億美元用於維持資產安全可靠運作的持續性投資。縮減後的資本計畫優先考慮對我們的 CLCS 業務、第二批 Flex 產能以及價值提升計畫中的高回報項目進行策略性投資。

We expect our 2025 effective tax rate will be approximately 17% and our cash tax rate will be approximately 10 percentage points higher. The higher cash tax rate is largely due to the deferral of 2024 US tax payments into 2025 that was provided under Hurricane Beryl disaster relief.

我們預計 2025 年的實際稅率約為 17%，而現金稅率將比實際稅率高出約 10 個百分點。現金稅率較高主要是由於颶風貝裡爾災害救濟措施允許將 2024 年的美國稅款延期至 2025 年繳納。

As we always do during the fourth-quarter call, we have provided additional 2025 modeling information in the appendix to the slide deck, describing expected impacts from major plant maintenance and other useful financial metrics.

像往常一樣，我們在第四季度電話會議上，在幻燈片附錄中提供了額外的 2025 年建模信息，描述了主要工廠維護的預期影響和其他有用的財務指標。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Kim. Kim?

接下來，我將把電話交給金。金？

Thank you, Michael.

謝謝你，麥可。

Let's begin the segment discussions on slide 13, with the performance of our Olefins and Polyolefins - Americas segment. Fourth-quarter EBITDA was $496 million. During the quarter, integrated polyethylene margins decreased as ethane and natural gas prices increased, negatively impacting margins.

讓我們從第 13 張投影片開始討論，先來看看我們美洲烯烴和聚烯烴業務板塊的表現。第四季 EBITDA 為 4.96 億美元。本季度，隨著乙烷和天然氣價格上漲，聚乙烯一體化利潤率下降，對利潤率產生了負面影響。

Strong demand from export markets increased our polyethylene volumes. We operated our assets at approximately 80% of nameplate capacity, in line with market demand.

出口市場的強勁需求提高了我們的聚乙烯產量。我們依照市場需求，以約 80% 的額定產能營運資產。

Our olefins crackers ran at approximately 98% of rates during the quarter. Our strong operational performance allowed us to capture additional spot sales in olefins markets, benefiting our results by approximately $40 million.

本季我們的烯烴裂解裝置運作率約為98%。我們強勁的營運表現使我們能夠在烯烴市場獲得更多現貨銷售，使我們的業績增加了約 4000 萬美元。

During the first quarter, we expect higher ethane and natural gas costs due to winter-energy demand, with modest improvements in product volumes following seasonal weakness and ongoing strength in export markets.

第一季度，由於冬季能源需求，我們預計乙烷和天然氣成本將上漲，產品銷售量在季節性疲軟和出口市場持續強勁之後將略有改善。

We expect to operate our O&P - Americas assets at an average rate of approximately 80% during the first quarter, due to planned maintenance downtime at our Channelview olefins assets as well as the impact of Winter Storm Enzo.

由於 Channelview 烯烴資產的計畫維護停機以及冬季風暴 Enzo 的影響，我們預計第一季美洲油氣資產的平均營運率約為 80%。

Ahead of the storm, LYB proactively reduced rates and shut down some assets. We estimate that lost volumes from the storm-related downtime will impact first-quarter EBITDA by approximately $45 million.

在風暴來臨之前，LYB主動降低了利率並關閉了一些資產。我們估計，風暴造成的停工損失將使第一季 EBITDA 減少約 4,500 萬美元。

In line with our commitment to build a profitable CLCS business, in November, we announced a second investment in Cyclyx, a joint venture with Agilyx and ExxonMobil, reaching final investment decisions to build a second Cyclyx circularity center in Fort Worth, Texas. The facility will have the capacity to produce more than 130,000 tons per year of plastic feedstock on [advanced] for mechanical recycling and is expected to start up in the second half of 2026.

為了履行我們打造盈利的 CLCS 業務的承諾，我們在 11 月宣布對 Cyclyx 進行第二次投資，Cyclyx 是與 Agilyx 和埃克森美孚的合資企業，我們最終決定在德克薩斯州沃思堡建造第二個 Cyclyx 循環經濟中心。該設施將具備每年生產超過 13 萬噸用於機械回收的先進塑膠原料的能力，預計將於 2026 年下半年投產。

Now, let's turn to slide 14 and review the performance of our Olefins and Polyolefins - Europe, - Asia, and - International segment.

現在，讓我們翻到第 14 張投影片，回顧一下我們的烯烴和聚烯烴——歐洲、亞洲和國際業務部門的表現。

During the fourth quarter, European markets remained weak with higher feedstock cost and softer seasonal demand. Extended maintenance activities at our Wesseling site, along with additional unplanned downtime in France, reduced volumes and impacted EBITDA by approximately $20 million during the fourth quarter.

第四季度，由於原料成本較高和季節性需求疲軟，歐洲市場依然疲軟。由於我們在韋瑟林工廠的維護活動延長，加上法國工廠額外的計劃外停機時間，導致產量下降，第四季度 EBITDA 減少了約 2000 萬美元。

Due to this downtime, we operated our assets at rates of approximately 55%. The combined impact of weak demand and lower rates led to an EBITDA loss of $146 million. As we move into 2025, we expect improved European seasonal demand to drive higher volumes and margins.

由於停機，我們的資產運作率約為 55%。需求疲軟和利率下降的雙重影響導致 EBITDA 虧損 1.46 億美元。展望 2025 年，我們預期歐洲季節性需求的改善將推動銷售和利潤率的成長。

In contrast to 2024, our O&P EAI segment has no major turnaround scheduled for the coming year. Nevertheless, feedstock supply for one of our German crackers is currently constrained due to unplanned downtime at a nearby refinery. With those constraints and ongoing soft market demand, we expect to operate our European assets at a rate of 75% during the first quarter.

與 2024 年相比，我們的 O&P EAI 部門在未來一年內沒有重大調整計畫。然而，由於附近煉油廠計劃外停產，我們德國某裂解裝置的原料供應目前受到限制。受這些限制以及持續疲軟的市場需求影響，我們預期第一季歐洲資產的營運率為 75%。

Our team in Wesseling, Germany successfully completed our largest turnaround in the region during 2024. Our European strategic review continues and we expect to be in a position to issue an update on the progress in the second half of this year.

2024 年，我們位於德國韋瑟林的團隊成功完成了該地區最大的檢修工作。我們的歐洲戰略評估仍在進行中，我們預計將在今年下半年發布最新進展報告。

Our CLCS business continues to grow. In October, we acquired APK, allowing us to integrate its unique solvent-based, low-density polyethylene recycling technology into our comprehensive portfolio for building a profitable CLCS business. And construction is well underway for our first commercial catalytic chemical recycling plant, MoReTec-1, in Germany.

我們的CLCS業務持續成長。10 月，我們收購了 APK，使我們能夠將其獨特的溶劑型低密度聚乙烯回收技術整合到我們全面的產品組合中，從而建立一個盈利的 CLCS 業務。我們在德國的第一座商業催化化學回收工廠 MoReTec-1 的建設正在順利進行中。

Now, let's turn to slide 15 and discuss the results of the Refining segment.

現在，讓我們翻到第 15 張投影片，討論一下「提煉」部分的結果。

During the fourth quarter, we incurred an EBITDA loss of $24 million. Margins remained relatively flat despite falling gasoline and diesel spreads due to improved utilization of our catalytic cracker. During the quarter, we operated the refinery at approximately 90% of capacity, following unplanned downtime in the third quarter, with an average crude rate of 244,000 barrels per day.

第四季度，我們錄得 EBITDA 虧損 2,400 萬美元。儘管由於催化裂解裝置的利用率提高，汽油和柴油價差有所下降，但利潤率仍保持相對穩定。本季度，由於第三季度出現計劃外停機，煉油廠以約 90% 的產能運行，平均原油日加工量為 244,000 桶。

Looking forward, refinery shutdown activities began, following Winter Storm Enzo in January and are expected to be completed within the first quarter. While the storm caused a slight delay, we remain on track as we have already shut down the first train of crude and coker units. With the second train, the CAT cracker and auxiliary equipment to follow.

展望未來，煉油廠停產檢修工作已於 1 月冬季風暴恩佐後開始，預計將在第一季完成。雖然風暴造成了一些延誤，但我們仍按計劃進行，因為我們已經關閉了第一列原油和焦化裝置。第二列火車將運抵，CAT裂解裝置和輔助設備隨後也將運抵。

In light of these activities, we expect final refinery utilization rates to be approximately 35% over the quarter.

鑑於這些活動，我們預計本季煉油廠最終利用率約為 35%。

Our team remains highly focused on a safe and reliable shutdown, as we wind down operations of our 107-year-old refinery. Our number one priority has and always will be safety.

在逐步關閉這座擁有 107 年歷史的煉油廠的過程中，我們的團隊始終高度重視安全可靠的停產。安全始終是我們的首要任務。

I would like to take the opportunity to commend our team for an amazing job during this journey.

我想藉此機會表揚我們的團隊，感謝他們在這段旅程中所做的出色工作。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Aaron.

接下來，我將把電話交給亞倫。

Thank you, Kim.

謝謝你，金。

Please turn to slide 16, as we take a look at our Intermediates and Derivatives segment.

請翻到第 16 頁，我們將一起來看中間體和衍生性商品部分。

Fourth-quarter EBITDA was $250 million. Fourth-quarter oxyfuels margins were in line with typical winter lows, driven by lower prices for crude oil as well as lower gasoline crack spreads.

第四季 EBITDA 為 2.5 億美元。第四季受原油價格走低以及汽油裂解價差走低的影響，含氧燃料利潤率與典型的冬季低點持平。

We experienced modest volume improvement in our (inaudible) derivatives business during the quarter despite weak demand for durable goods. (inaudible) margins remain under pressure, given global supply and demand fundamentals.

儘管耐用品需求疲軟，但我們的衍生性商品業務在本季實現了小幅交易量成長。鑑於全球供需基本面，利潤率仍承壓。

Despite declining raw material prices, we operated our I&D assets at a rate of approximately 70% during the fourth quarter to match low seasonal demand.

儘管原物料價格下跌，但為了滿足季節性低迷的需求，我們在第四季仍以約 70% 的開工率運作我們的 I&D 資產。

The I&D business achieved several strategic milestones in 2024, including the divestment of our non-core Ethylene Oxide and Derivatives business and the operation of our newest PO/TBA asset, at 78% rates for the year, surpassing our 2024 goal of 70%.

I&D 業務在 2024 年實現了幾個戰略里程碑，包括剝離非核心環氧乙烷及其衍生物業務，以及運營我們最新的 PO/TBA 資產，該年度的運營率為 78%，超過了我們 2024 年 70% 的目標。

With this steady progress, operating rates are expected to run at benchmark rates going forward. These significant milestones highlight the decisive actions we are taking to exit businesses where LYB does not have a path to market leadership while growing and upgrading our core businesses and assets that are aligned with our long-term strategy.

隨著這一穩步進展，預計未來營運利率將達到基準利率水準。這些重要的里程碑突顯了我們正在採取的果斷行動，即退出 LYB 沒有市場領導地位的業務，同時發展和升級與我們的長期策略一致的核心業務和資產。

As we begin the first quarter, we expect to see moderate demand improvement across most businesses as customers begin restocking after year-end inventory management. Additionally, we anticipate octane premiums will improve with the end of the winter and the favorable butane-to-crude ratios will continue to support long-term oxyfuels fundamental.

第一季開始，我們預計大多數企業的需求將出現溫和成長，因為客戶在年底庫存管理後開始補充庫存。此外，我們預計隨著冬季結束，辛烷值溢價將會改善，而有利的丁烷與原油比例將繼續支撐長期含氧燃料的基本面。

We plan to operate our assets at approximately 80% during the first quarter, inclusive of a small amount of unplanned downtime and lost volumes due to Winter Storm Enzo.

我們計劃在第一季以大約 80% 的產能運作我們的資產，其中包括少量計劃外停機時間和因冬季風暴恩佐造成的產量損失。

With that, I will now turn the call over to Torkel.

接下來，我將把電話交給托克爾。

Thank you, Aaron.

謝謝你，亞倫。

Now, let's review the results of our Advanced Polymer Solutions segment on slide 17.

現在，讓我們回顧一下第 17 頁幻燈片上「先進聚合物解決方案」部分的結果。

Fourth-quarter EBITDA was $15 million. Volumes were pressured by significantly lower fourth-quarter demand from automotive customers across all regions, slightly offset by favorable margins.

第四季 EBITDA 為 1500 萬美元。受第四季度汽車客戶在各個地區需求大幅下降的影響，銷售量受到衝擊，但有利的利潤率略微抵消了這一影響。

Looking ahead, we expect the first quarter will reflect continued progress from our efforts to regain market share, with our renewed focus on customer-centricity. Our customer-centric approach helped drive approximately 20% EBITDA improvement during 2024 and an increase of 46% in our net promoter score from customers versus the prior year.

展望未來，我們預計第一季將反映出我們在重新奪回市場份額方面所取得的持續進展，同時我們將重新聚焦於以客戶為中心。我們以客戶為中心的策略幫助我們在 2024 年實現了約 20% 的 EBITDA 成長，與前一年相比，客戶的淨推薦值提高了 46%。

The team has made substantial progress in transforming our business with strategic customers by building back trust and increasing our win rate to gain new project qualifications. This progress helped us achieve above market global volume growth for our sizable polypropylene compounds and masterbatch businesses during 2024.

團隊透過重建信任和提高中標率，獲得了新的專案資格，從而在與策略客戶的業務轉型方面取得了實質進展。這項進展幫助我們在 2024 年實現了龐大的聚丙烯化合物和母料業務的全球銷量成長高於市場平均水平。

In addition to our focus on transforming the business, I would like to congratulate the APS team for achieving record-setting safety performance in 2024, surpassing our prior record from 2023. I truly believe our progress in refilling our growth funnel and achieving superior safety results reflects our attention to detail and confirms we are on the right path to restoring and exceeding our historical performance.

除了專注於業務轉型之外，我還要祝賀 APS 團隊在 2024 年取得了創紀錄的安全業績，超過了我們 2023 年的記錄。我堅信，我們在重新充實成長管道和取得卓越的安全成果方面取得的進展，體現了我們對細節的關注，並證實我們正走在恢復和超越歷史業績的正確道路上。

With that, I will return the call to Peter.

就這樣，我會回撥給彼得的電話。

Thanks, Torkel.

謝謝你，托克爾。

I would like to thank the entire LyondellBasell team for delivering such resilient results amidst a very challenging macroenvironment.

我要感謝利安德巴塞爾團隊在如此充滿挑戰的宏觀環境中取得如此穩健的成果。

To close out on the segments, let's turn to slide 18 and discuss the results for our Technology business, on behalf of Jim Stewart.

最後，讓我們翻到第 18 張投影片，代表 Jim Stewart 討論我們科技業務的表現。

During the fourth quarter, catalyst volumes moderated on typical seasonality while we achieved higher licensing revenue by reaching project milestones that resulted in segment EBITDA of $108 million. With this progress, fourth-quarter EBITDA exceeded the prior year by approximately 40%.

第四季度，催化劑銷售量受季節性因素影響有所下降，同時我們透過實現專案里程碑獲得了更高的授權收入，使得該部門的 EBITDA 達到 1.08 億美元。憑藉這一進展，第四季度 EBITDA 比上年同期成長約 40%。

First-quarter results for the Technology segment are expected to decline to levels at or below the third quarter of 2024. While catalyst sales should improve with favorable seasonality, we expect moderating licensing revenue as project approvals for polyolefin-capacity additions subside across the world.

預計科技部門第一季的業績將下降至 2024 年第三季或更低的水平。雖然催化劑的銷售會隨著有利的季節性因素而改善，但我們預計隨著全球聚烯烴產能新增項目的批准減少，許可收入將會放緩。

Please turn to slide 19, as we discuss the near-term outlook by region and end markets.

請翻到第 19 頁，我們將討論按地區和終端市場劃分的近期前景。

As you heard from our business leaders, we expect modest seasonal demand improvements across most businesses during the first quarter.

正如您從我們的業務領導者那裡聽到的那樣，我們預計第一季大多數業務的季節性需求將出現小幅增長。

In the Americas, we expect typical seasonal demand recovery will be met with tighter supply due to planned downtime across the industry, from an unusually high level of spring cracker maintenance, including our Channelview turnarounds.

在美洲，我們預計典型的季節性需求復甦將面臨供應緊張，這是由於整個行業的計劃停機時間，以及春季裂解裝置維護量異常高，包括我們的 Channelview 裝置檢修。

In Europe, we expect rising energy costs will continue to pressure the European market. Seasonal demand recovery and modest restocking of low inventories should provide some support. Moving forward, ongoing capacity rationalization appears likely and should help improve market balance between supply and demand.

在歐洲，我們預計不斷上漲的能源成本將繼續給歐洲市場帶來壓力。季節性需求復甦和低庫存的適度補充應該會提供一些支撐。展望未來，持續的產能合理化似乎勢在必行，這將有助於改善市場供需平衡。

In Asia, markets are showing slow but steady improvements in both volumes and margins. We are encouraged by China's targeted stimulus programs but remain cautious while monitoring for signs that these efforts can translate into more meaningful market improvements.

亞洲市場銷售和利潤率均呈現緩慢但穩定的改善趨勢。我們對中國有針對性的刺激計劃感到鼓舞，但仍保持謹慎，密切關注這些努力能否轉化為更有意義的市場改善。

For the packaging sector, we expect to continue seeing steady global demand as we move ahead in the new year.

對於包裝產業，我們預計在新的一年裡，全球需求將持續保持穩定。

In building and construction, the US' infrastructure stimulus efforts are supporting increased industrial activity. Additionally, leading indicators for remodeling activity are predicting increased activity for the second and third quarters of 2025.

在建築施工領域，美國的基礎設施刺激措施正在支持工業活動的成長。此外，改造活動的領先指標預測，2025 年第二季和第三季改造活動將會增加。

In the automotive sector, a modest recovery and seasonal demand could be pressured by elevated inventory levels across the industry. Additionally, we're watchful for changes in trade policies that could impact production as we move through the year.

汽車產業方面，由於整個產業的庫存水準居高不下，溫和的復甦和季節性需求可能會受到抑制。此外，我們密切關注貿易政策的變化，這些變化可能會在今年稍後影響生產。

For oxyfuels, stronger crude prices and typical springtime improvements in gasoline crack spreads should provide benefit as we move through the quarter. Our focus remains on reliable operations and continuous optimization across our global footprint to capture market opportunities. And as Michael emphasized, we are maintaining our laser-focus on cash generation.

對於含氧燃料而言，隨著本季的推進，原油價格走強和春季汽油裂解價差的典型改善應該會帶來利多。我們將繼續專注於在全球範圍內實現可靠營運和持續優化，以抓住市場機會。正如邁克爾所強調的那樣，我們將繼續把重點放在創造現金流上。

Now, let me provide an overview of our outlook and how we are positioning LYB over the longer term, in slide 20.

現在，讓我在第 20 張幻燈片中概述我們的展望以及我們如何從長遠角度定位 LYB。

As we move into 2025, we're beginning to see signs of recovery in key end markets. After two years of declines, domestic demand for US polyolefins had a positive inflection in 2024. Reduced global interest rates, moderating inflation, and pent-up demand all provide a supportive backdrop for the inevitable recovery in demand for durable goods. But we remain watchful of the potential impacts that tariffs could have on affordability and global trade.

進入 2025 年，我們開始看到主要終端市場出現復甦跡象。經過兩年的下滑，美國國內對聚烯烴的需求在 2024 年出現了正面的轉折。全球利率下降、通膨放緩以及被壓抑的需求，都為耐久財需求的必然復甦提供了有利背景。但我們仍將密切關注關稅可能對商品價格和全球貿易的潛在影響。

Despite these uncertainties, LYB remains well positioned as the favorable oil-to-gas ratio continues to provide a cost advantage for our US and Middle East [projection].

儘管存在這些不確定因素，但由於有利的油氣比率持續為我們在美國和中東的業務帶來成本優勢，LYB 仍處於有利地位。[投影]。

Our portfolio transformation is well underway, with strategic initiatives to strengthen and upgrade our core businesses. Recent milestones include the acquisition of NATPET, the divestment of our EO&D business, ongoing progress for our European strategic review, and our exit from Refining.

我們的業務組合轉型正在穩步推進，我們已採取策略性舉措來加強和升級我們的核心業務。近期取得的里程碑包括收購 NATPET、剝離 EO&D 業務、歐洲策略審查的持續進展以及退出煉油業務。

During 2024, we have made excellent progress toward building our profitable CLCS business, by starting construction of our first MoReTec facility and bolstering our technology position with investments such as APK.

2024 年，我們在發展盈利的 CLCS 業務方面取得了卓越的進展，我們啟動了第一個 MoReTec 工廠的建設，並透過 APK 等投資鞏固了我們的技術地位。

Recent assessments by EcoVadis and Sustainalytics rate LYB in the Top 10% for our industry. LYB is at the forefront of providing sustainable solutions for our customers.

EcoVadis 和 Sustainalytics 最近的評估將 LYB 評為我們行業前 10% 的公司。LYB始終致力於為客戶提供永續的解決方案。

And our VEP is now on track to unlock at least $1 billion of recurring annual EBITDA by the end of this year.

我們的 VEP 目前正按計劃推進，預計在今年年底前實現至少 10 億美元的年度經常性 EBITDA。

I am very proud of the progress our teams have made during 2024. And I'm confident that LYB is well positioned to achieve our strategic priorities while rewarding shareholders.

我為我們團隊在 2024 年所取得的進步感到非常自豪。我相信，LYB 已做好充分準備，在實現我們的策略重點的同時，為股東帶來回報。

Now, with that, we're now pleased to take your questions.

現在，我們很高興接受大家的提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Steve Byrne, Bank of America.

史蒂夫伯恩，美國銀行。

Yes. Thank you.

是的。謝謝。

I was just curious how much CapEx you expect to invest to reach that 2 million-ton-level of circular plastic in the next five years?

我只是好奇，為了在未來五年內達到每年200萬噸循環塑膠的目標，你們預計需要投入多少資本支出？

Presumably, that will be largely the [circularly] revive but how do you get that margin uplift from that?

想必這主要將來自（循環經濟的）復甦，但如何從中獲得利潤率的提升呢？

You have a lot of confidence in it, is that level of confidence sufficient to get some long-term contracts before you build the plan?

你對它很有信心，這種信心是否足以讓你在製定計劃之前就獲得一些長期合約？

Thank you, Steve. This is Peter. Very good question.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。這是彼得。問得好。

We alluded to the fact that we have around 20% of our total CapEx that is being invested in our CLCS business. We remain very confident because you have seen the very good growth that we have in the entire CLCS portfolio in 2024. And we see the margins - that they are in line with what we have said at the Capital Markets Day in March 2023.

我們曾提到，我們約有 20% 的總資本支出投資於我們的 CLCS 業務。我們依然充滿信心，因為你們已經看到了我們在 2024 年整個 CLCS 投資組合中取得的非常好的成長。我們看到利潤率——這與我們在 2023 年 3 月資本市場日上所說的一致。

So remember the incremental margin of $500 per ton. And it's incremental because that does not include the margin that is, for example, in the cracker. Take into consideration, as well, that our portfolio in 2024 did not yet include any substantial chemical recycling -- so MoReTec, technology products -- as we are investing in the 50,000 tons capacity in Cologne.

所以請記住每噸500美元的增量利潤。而且這是增量，因為這不包括例如裂解裝置中的利潤。此外，還要考慮到，由於我們正在投資科隆的 5 萬噸產能，我們 2024 年的產品組合中還沒有包含任何實質的化學回收業務——例如 MoReTec 技術產品。

If you do the back-of-the-envelope calculation, that would stand for, let's say, around $25 million to $30 million incremental EBITDA, starting up towards the end of 2026. And as I said in my prepared remarks, as well, we are now very deeply engaged in the second investment, which is at double capacity.

如果粗略估算一下，這相當於大約 2500 萬美元到 3000 萬美元的增量 EBITDA，從 2026 年底開始。正如我在事先準備好的演講稿中所說，我們現在正全心投入第二個投資項目中，該項目的產能是第一個項目的兩倍。

So 100,000 tons of MoReTec that would then be built at our refinery site in Houston. Not a final investment decision but there is quite a lot of resources, in the meantime, that are busy with the engineering and the preparation to move them into a final investment decision.

因此，我們將在休士頓的煉油廠生產 10 萬噸 MoReTec 產品。雖然尚未做出最終投資決定，但目前已投入大量資源進行工程設計和準備工作，以便最終做出投資決定。

Patrick Cunningham, Citi.

派崔克‧坎寧安，花旗銀行。

Hi. Good morning.

你好。早安.

Peter, you painted the picture of material upside and margins, just from getting back to normal mid-cycle levels. But I think there were some very abnormal things which, maybe, benefited 10-year averages.

Peter，你描繪了一幅物價上漲和利潤豐厚的景象，僅僅恢復到正常的周期中期水平就足以帶來巨大的收益。但我認為有一些非常不尋常的事情，這些事情或許有利於十年平均值。

Now, sitting with plenty of supply overhang across a number of chains, sluggish demand, does anything suggest this is the new normal? If it is, can you be more aggressive with your strategy pivots?

目前，許多供應鏈都存在大量供應過剩，需求疲軟，這是否預示著這將是新的常態？如果是這樣，你能否在策略調整方面採取更積極的策略？

Yeah. Thank you, Patrick. A very good question as well.

是的。謝謝你，派崔克。這是一個很好的問題。

We showed this chart to show what the upside is, as we are moving towards an environment that, maybe, will not happen in Q1 but that we believe will continue to develop as we move towards the second half of 2025.

我們展示這張圖表是為了說明哪些有利因素，因為我們正在邁向一種環境，這種環境或許不會在第一季度出現，但我們相信，隨著我們邁向 2025 年下半年，這種環境將繼續發展。

In terms of higher demand, we see some uptick in demand and you've seen the numbers if you just look, for example, at the demands in North America for polyethylene. Well, the year-on-year domestic demand improved by 4%. The overall demand improved by 8% in polyethylene. And that is because there was a very good cost position and continues to be a good cost position that the North American players have in order to be able to export more. So export grew by 12% year on year.

就更高的需求而言，我們看到需求上升，例如，如果你看一下北美對聚乙烯的需求數據，你就會看到這一點。國內需求年增了 4%。聚乙烯整體需求成長了8%。這是因為北美企業過去和現在都擁有非常有利的成本優勢，因此能夠出口更多產品。因此，出口額較去年同期成長了12%。

But you see the same, already, if we look at our Propylene Oxide and Derivatives, even if everybody is saying: 'Okay, durable goods, we don't see a big uptick in demand.' Well, we were able to grow our Propylene Oxide and Derivatives business by 4% year on year, 2024, compared to 2023.

但如果你看看環氧丙烷及其衍生物，你會發現情況也是如此，即使每個人都說：“好吧，耐用品，我們沒有看到需求大幅增長。”2024 年，我們的環氧丙烷及其衍生物業務比 2023 年年增了 4%。

So we see that there is this uptick possible.

由此可見，這種成長是有可能的。

Another point I want to repeat: we have alluded to that also in the previous earnings calls, there is not a huge amount of additional capacity that is coming on steam cracker capacity, polyethylene and polypropylene capacity this year and also next year.

我想重申一點：我們在之前的財報電話會議上也提到過，今年和明年，蒸汽裂解產能、聚乙烯和聚丙烯產能都不會有太大的新增產能。

And we are well positioned also on the other side. In oxyfuels and Propylene Oxide and Derivatives because we have our new unit, which is performing extremely well -- very pleased with that.

我們在另一邊也佔據了有利位置。在富氧燃料和環氧丙烷及其衍生物方面，我們有了新的裝置，而且運作得非常好——對此我們非常滿意。

So lowest cost, lowest carbon footprint, propylene oxides are very well positioned also, as we see continuous demand, growth for oxyfuels, on a global basis.

因此，丙烯氧化物成本最低、碳足跡最小，而且我們看到全球對含氧燃料的需求持續成長，因此其市場地位非常有利。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀集團的 Josh Spector。

Hi. Good morning. It's Christopher Perrella, on for Josh.

你好。早安.克里斯多福·佩雷拉，替補喬許上場。

With all the moving parts in the first quarter, is EBITDA growth positive in the first quarter, with the turnarounds? Can you bracket what your EBITDA expectations are, near term?

考慮到第一季諸多變數，在業務轉虧為盈的情況下，第一季的 EBITDA 成長是否為正？您能否大致估算一下您近期的 EBITDA 預期？

Let me answer that question, Christopher.

讓我來回答這個問題，克里斯多福。

Of course, what you always see, normally, in the first quarter is that there is an uptick in demand -- that is seasonality. But of course, I also need to point out to the fact that the first quarter always starts with where the fourth quarter, actually, is ending.

當然，通常情況下，第一季需求都會上升——這是季節性因素造成的。當然，我還需要指出，第一季總是從第四季結束的地方開始。

So we start at a low point, higher heating costs. For example: feedstock costs, higher energy costs as we move into the first quarter.

所以我們從較低的點開始，那就是較高的暖氣成本。例如：原料成本上漲，以及進入第一季後能源成本上升。

What will be, of course, very important for you to look at over first quarter is that we have a very large turnaround in Channelview. This is not a small one. You've seen the financial impacts that that turnaround has.

當然，在第一季度，您需要重點關注的是 Channelview 的大幅扭虧為盈。這可不是小事。你已經看到了這種轉變所帶來的財務影響。

In addition to that, we anticipated or we took measures prior to the freeze. Enzo hitting, let's say, Houston and surrounding. So we did, proactively, take measures. We did shut down a number of lines to minimize the impact of the freeze. So that will, of course, impact Q1, with slightly lower operating rates as a consequence in (inaudible).

除此之外，我們也預料到了寒流的到來，或是在寒流到來之前就採取了相應的措施。假設恩佐襲擊了休士頓及其周邊地區。因此，我們主動採取了措施。為了盡量減少凍害的影響，我們關閉了一些生產線。因此，這當然會對第一季產生影響，導致營運率略有下降。（聽不清楚）

We have slightly higher rates than in I&D, slightly higher rates than, also, in Europe, Asia and International for O&P. Let me point out that North American demand, as I said before, in PE and PP, remains on that trajectory of recovery.

我們的收費標準比 I&D 略高，也比歐洲、亞洲和國際的 O&P 收費標準略高。讓我指出，正如我之前所說，北美對PE和PP的需求仍然處於復甦軌道上。

So it remains strong but, as said before, Q1 starts where Q4 ended. So a slow start in the year but we remain having wider level of confidence.

所以它依然強勁，但正如之前所說，第一季是從第四季結束的地方開始的。雖然今年開局緩慢，但我們仍然保持著較高的信心水平。

As we move towards 2025, we see points in certain industries, also regionally, that has a huge amount of additional capacity asset. And so we see points whereby demand is starting slowly but steadily to improve.

隨著我們邁向 2025 年，我們看到某些產業，甚至某些地區，擁有大量的額外產能資產。因此，我們看到需求開始緩慢但穩定地改善。

Peter, if I might, could I add a comment about the turnaround? Or turnarounds I think is a better way to characterize it

彼得，如果可以的話，我能否就此事的轉變補充一點看法？或者說，我認為用「扭虧為盈」來形容更為貼切。

I want to help all of you with your modeling. When we're taking down an olefins unit, as well as our metathesis or Flex unit and all of our C4 processing, the impact is not just the olefins, it's the propylene and C4 molecules, when we talk in each of these calls about optimizing the cost of ethylene.

我想在建模方面幫助大家。當我們拆除烯烴裝置、複分解裝置或Flex裝置以及所有C4加工裝置時，其影響不僅是烯烴，還包括丙烯和C4分子。我們在每次電話會議中都會談到如何優化乙烯的成本。

I wanted to make sure I highlighted that because last year, we had a turnaround and it was a $70 million impact. You see, this time, it's $190 million. So I wanted to help everybody better understand what that is.

我想強調這一點，因為去年我們實現了扭虧為盈，帶來了 7000 萬美元的影響。你看，這次是 1.9 億美元。所以我想幫助大家更理解那是什麼。

Jeff Zekauskas, J.P. Morgan.

Jeff Zekauskas，摩根大通。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Lyondell has been characterized by dividend increases, through the years, and EBITDA has been under pressure but cash flows have been good.

多年來，利安德公司一直以股息成長為特徵，儘管 EBITDA 面臨壓力，但現金流狀況良好。

Has the dividend increases for Lyondell come to an end or are dividends looking like they could increase in 2025?

利安德烈集團的股息成長是否已經結束，還是說股息預計在 2025 年繼續成長？

Thank you, Jeff. Good question as well.

謝謝你，傑夫。問得好。

I'm going to start and, maybe then, also hand over to Michael.

我先開始，然後也許會把接力棒交給麥可。

You heard me saying and you heard Michael say, as well, in the prepared remarks, fantastic cash flow generation throughout the year 2024, after the year 2023 where we did that as well -- and I'm personally very pleased with the attention that all our people have on cash flow generation -- you see, the results out of that, it is not just by coincidence.

你們都聽到我和麥可在事先準備好的發言稿中提到，2024 年全年現金流生成情況非常出色，繼 2023 年之後，我們也實現了這一目標——我個人對我們所有員工對現金流生成的重視程度感到非常滿意——你們看，最終的結果絕非偶然。

In addition to that, of course, we're doing that big transformation during 2025, which helps in having a very focused portfolio that is then also helping us to continue the trajectory, as we have said at the Capital Markets Day, on very good cash flow conversion

當然，除此之外，我們還將在2025年進行重大轉型，這有助於我們打造一個高度聚焦的投資組合，從而幫助我們繼續保持良好的現金流轉換率，正如我們在資本市場日上所說。

So if you look at all these factors, that's why we -- Michael and I -- said in the prepared remarks, we continue to be very well positioned to continue the trajectory to increase our dividends.

所以，如果你看看所有這些因素，這就是為什麼我和麥可在準備好的發言稿中說，我們仍然處於非常有利的位置，可以繼續保持提高股息的勢頭。

Of course, not a decision, at this point in time. As you all know, that's a decision that is following in May. And that will be taken then by the Boards. But if we look at the numbers, we continue to be quite confident.

當然，目前還不是最終決定。正如大家所知，這項決定將在五月做出。然後，這將由董事會決定。但從數據來看，我們依然相當有信心。

Michael?

麥可？

A couple of things that I'd add, Peter, is one, the balance sheet is in phenomenal shape, maturity profile looks wonderful.

彼得，我還要補充幾點：第一，資產負債表狀況極佳，到期結構看起來也很棒。

And then, we've been very disciplined and balanced from a capital allocation perspective. We've been rewarding our shareholders with the dividend. We're also, in the market, buying back shares as everyone has seen.

而且，從資本配置的角度來看，我們一直都非常自律和平衡。我們一直透過派發股息來回報股東。正如大家所看到的，我們也在市場上回購股票。

But we've also been very disciplined from a capital expenditure perspective. And for the benefit of investors, if you'll recall that we said, on average, we're going to spend about $2 billion over the period '23, '24, and '25.

但從資本支出角度來看，我們也一直非常自律。為了投資者的利益，如果您還記得的話，我們說過，平均而言，我們將在 2023 年、2024 年和 2025 年期間花費約 20 億美元。

And actually, we've taken out about $750 million from those previous plans. So we are being very, very disciplined, given the market conditions. But we're confident that we have the ability to responsibly grow our dividend in the future.

事實上，我們已經從先前的計劃中削減了大約 7.5 億美元。鑑於目前的市場狀況，我們採取了非常非常自律的策略。但我們有信心在未來以負責任的方式提高股利。

And that CapEx -- the prioritization that we did, very intensively, during 2023 and 2024 and, again, now for 2025 is, really, a different view on how we are prioritizing our CapEx. Diligent view on all the different projects, taking into the consideration the portfolio change that we are making.

而我們在 2023 年和 2024 年以及現在的 2025 年非常密集地進行的資本支出優先排序，實際上體現了我們對資本支出優先排序方式的不同看法。認真審視所有不同的項目，同時考慮到我們正在進行的投資組合調整。

So it's not a major impact that I expect that that has -- if you look at our growth for the big projects like, for example, the MoReTec-2 project; like for example, our next flexible metathesis, the Flex(2) units in Channelview -- it's not impacting those very important strategic growth projects.

因此，我預計這不會產生重大影響——如果你看看我們的大專案成長情況，例如 MoReTec-2 專案；例如，我們下一個柔性複分解裝置，Channelview 的 Flex(2) 單元——它不會影響這些非常重要的策略成長專案。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

文森安德魯斯，摩根士丹利。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Peter, you made a couple of comments about capacity: one in Europe suggesting that we might finally some meaningful rationalization there.

彼得，你對產能發表了一些評論：其中一篇是關於歐洲的，這表明我們可能最終可以在那裡進行一些有意義的合理化。

And I think, also, when you were talking about the Technology segment, you talked about how you're seeing some future projects from customers that I think you said canceled but, maybe, you only said deferred.

而且，我認為，當您談到技術部分時，您提到您看到一些客戶的未來項目，我想您說這些項目被取消了，但也許您只是說這些項目被推遲了。

But if you could just give us a little insight on what you're hearing and seeing and how meaningful either both of those might be to the near or medium term.

但如果您能給我們一些關於您所聽到和看到的內容的見解，以及這些內容對近期或中期可能具有的意義，那就太好了。

Thank you, Vincent. Very good strategic questions.

謝謝你，文森。非常好的戰略性問題。

Capacity rationalization in Europe is ongoing. There has been quite some announcements, in the meantime, out there. And you know from the market that these have not just been announcements but, actually, capacities are being shut down.

歐洲的產能合理化進程正在進行中。同時，外界也發布了不少公告。從市場反應來看，這些不僅僅是公告，實際上產能正在關閉。

And it's not a coincidence because we all know that there is quite some challenges in the European market. Energy costs, just to point to that, is extremely high.

這並非巧合，因為我們都知道歐洲市場面臨許多挑戰。僅舉一例，能源成本非常高。

Everybody is asking for support from the regulators to keep the industry in Europe. But in the meantime, it takes time until these decisions are being taken by the authorities and the entire industry is taking action. The list is getting longer and longer on rationalizations in Europe.

大家都在請求監管機構的支持，以將該行業留在歐洲。但同時，從當局做出這些決定到整個產業採取行動，都需要時間。歐洲的合理化清單越來越長了。

You know that we have been very early in that entire process, with our European strategic assessments. And we continue to make very good progress on the strategic assessments. Nothing that we can announce, at this point in time. But rest assured, we're making very good progress in that regard.

你知道，我們很早就參與整個過程中，並進行了歐洲戰略評估。我們在戰略評估方面繼續取得非常好的進展。目前我們沒有什麼可以宣布的。但請放心，我們在這方面取得了非常好的進展。

Now, you see the other side and that gives us, always, a good hedging and a good visibility. Because in our Technology segment, we do see that there is a slowdown in demand for licenses and that fits, very well, together with what we have been saying: that there is a slowdown in additional capacities that will be built up during the next years, five years, as long as we can look forward.

現在，你看到了另一面，這始終能為我們帶來良好的對沖和良好的視野。因為在我們的技術領域，我們確實看到許可證需求放緩，這與我們一直所說的非常吻合：未來幾年、五年內，只要我們能夠展望未來，新增產能就會放緩。

Frank Mitch, Fermium Research.

Frank Mitch，Fermium Research。

Hey. Good morning. And best wishes, again, Michael. And best and congrats, again. Agustin.

嘿。早安.再次祝你一切順利，邁克爾。再次恭喜你，祝一切順利。奧古斯丁。

Peter, you offered that we're starting out Q at a low level, mentioning energy prices, ethane prices, et cetera. Obviously, there's a lot of price increases that are on the table. I'm speaking, specifically, on polyethylene and just O&P - Americas in general.

Peter，你曾說過，我們應該從較低的水平開始，例如能源價格、乙烷價格等等。顯然，有很多價格上漲的可能性。我指的是聚乙烯以及整個美洲地區的O&P產業。

So we have some price increases on the table. We also have some contract resets. How do you view the margin profile for polyethylene playing out as we move through the first quarter?

所以，我們可能會提價。我們還有一些合約重置。您如何看待聚乙烯在第一季的利潤率走勢？

Thank you, Frank. And of course, also, thank you for sending best wishes to Michael. And I'm absolutely confident that Agustin is going to be a very good successor of Michael, having worked now with Agustin since a number of years.

謝謝你，弗蘭克。當然，也感謝你向邁克爾送上最美好的祝愿。我與奧古斯丁共事多年，我完全相信他將成為麥可的優秀繼任者。

To your question, if you look at all the data points, no major capacity increases in North America that are hitting the markets. The surprise that we had in Q4: that prices didn't go up for polyethylene but, actually, went down, despite the fact that the quarter was very balanced with quite a lot of exports outside of the United States.

關於你的問題，如果你查看所有數據點，你會發現北美並沒有出現對市場造成衝擊的大規模產能成長。第四季我們遇到的意外是：聚乙烯價格沒有上漲，反而下降了，儘管該季度市場非常平衡，美國以外的出口量相當大。

You know these price increases that are out there, for both, PE as well as for PP.

你知道現在聚乙烯（PE）和聚丙烯（PP）的價格都在上漲。

So let me hand over ,now, to our Head of the business units. To Kim. Kim, how confident are you?

現在，讓我把麥克風交給我們的業務部門負責人。致金。金，你有多大信心？

I want to build a little bit on this story before I talk about confidence and price increases.

在談論信心和價格上漲之前，我想先稍微展開一下這個故事。

In January and December, as we've alluded to, you saw these higher feedstock and energy costs that translate to about a $0.05 or $0.06 per pound increase in ethylene. So we're coming into this market with lower starting polymer prices, as well as you've said, Frank, contract resets. So LYB and other producers have announced $7 and $5.

正如我們之前提到的，1 月和 12 月的原料和能源成本較高，導致乙烯價格每磅上漲約 0.05 或 0.06 美元。因此，當我們進入這個市場時，聚合物的起始價格較低，而且正如弗蘭克所說，合約重置也是如此。所以LYB和其他製作商宣布了7美元和5美元的價格。

Do I have a crystal ball and can say that: 'Well, what's the probability of that?' No.

我有沒有水晶球，可以告訴我：“這件事發生的機率是多少？”不。

But what I want to remind you, to help you understand this full picture, is 5% of the industry crackers are coming offline. That's a lot of capacity. So if I'm an integrated producer and I've got an olefins outage, am I going to buy expensive ethylene to have a negative market margin and produce polyethylene? I don't think so.

但我想提醒你們，為了幫助你們了解全貌，有 5% 的產業破解者正在下線。容量很大。所以，如果我是一家綜合生產商，而我的烯烴生產線停產了，我是否要購買價格昂貴的乙烯，從而接受負的市場利潤，去生產聚乙烯？我不這麼認為。

So I think it's really important that everybody understands the full gist and the importance of 'we've got to have margin throughout the chain'. So don't have a crystal ball but I'm pretty confident that we're going to see some margin or some price improvement in the first quarter.

所以我認為，讓每個人都理解「我們必須在整個供應鏈中保持利潤空間」這一要點及其重要性，這一點非常重要。雖然我沒有水晶球，但我相當有信心，第一季我們將看到利潤率或價格有所改善。

And it had some impacts on (inaudible) as well.

而且對（聽不清楚）也產生了一些影響。

Yes.

是的。

Yes, very good.

是的，非常好。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

Kevin McCarthy，Vertical Research Partners。

Yes. Thank you and good morning, everyone.

是的。謝謝大家，大家早安。

My compliments on slide number 5, which I think is interesting to compare and contrast the degree of depression across some of these markets.

我對第 5 張投影片表示讚賞，我認為它很有意思，可以比較和對比這些市場中的一些蕭條程度。

Peter, I'd appreciate your updated cycle view on the propylene chain or polypropylene. It seems to me, on the one hand, these cracker closures should also serve to diminish supply of propylene monomer. On the other hand, I think you have a lot of these crude oil-to-chemical projects around the world, particularly longer term, that are meant to maximize propylene coming out of refineries and so forth.

Peter，我很想聽聽你對丙烯或聚丙烯產業鏈的最新看法。在我看來，一方面，這些裂解裝置的關閉也應該有助於減少丙烯單體的供應。另一方面，我認為世界各地有許多原油製化學品項目，特別是長期項目，旨在最大限度地提高煉油廠丙烯的產量等等。

So how do you view, maybe, the next two or three years in that chain? And might you plan to take strategic action there yourselves?

那麼，您如何看待未來兩三年的發展趨勢？你們是否也計劃在那裡採取戰略行動？

Yeah. Thank you very much.

是的。非常感謝。

Kevin, let me hand over to Kim on that question.

凱文，這個問題我交給金來回答。

Kevin, I think as you've seen, the industry go to lighter feedstocks, more ethane versus (inaudible).

凱文，我想正如你所看到的，業界正在轉向更輕的原料，更多的是乙烷而非其他物質。（聽不清楚）

You've seen a decline in propylene. A lot of people have, as such, built PDH units that were converting propane to propylene.

丙烯價格已經下滑。因此，許多人建造了 PDH 裝置，將丙烷轉化為丙烯。

And see, a lot of that capacity has been in China. So you're seeing China set the floor here for propylene and to polypropylene dynamics.

而且，很多產能都在中國。所以你可以看到中國正在為丙烯和聚丙烯市場的發展奠定基礎。

LyondellBasell, for us, being an integrated propylene producer, it's important for us not only on polypropylene but on propylene oxide. So we've announced that we are -- an FID for what we call our Flex(2) or metathesis unit.

對我們利安德巴塞爾來說，作為一個綜合丙烯生產商，丙烯氧化物對我們來說不僅對聚丙烯很重要，而且對環氧丙烷也很重要。因此，我們已經宣布，我們——我們稱之為 Flex(2) 或複分解裝置的 FID。

And we are taking back control of the propane molecules for us. Not only as we shut down our refinery and lose our refinery-grade propylene. But also, as we think about how to have better integration through our chains.

我們正在重新掌控丙烷分子。不僅如此，我們還會關閉煉油廠，失去煉廠級丙烯。但同時，我們也在思考如何更好地整合我們的供應鏈。

I want to add to that, of course, that we continue to be very engaged in Saudi Arabia with our joint venture that we have built up called NATPET.

當然，我還要補充一點，我們將繼續透過我們建立的合資企業 NATPET 在沙烏地阿拉伯開展積極業務。

So we have, of course, that capacity in polypropylene, which is the lowest-delivered cost capacity, very good feedstock conditions, and we continue to work with our partner on the expansion project to more than double that capacity.

當然，我們在聚丙烯方面擁有產能，這是交付成本最低的產能，原料條件也非常好，我們正在繼續與合作夥伴共同推進擴建項目，以使產能翻一番以上。

The other part on strategic measures is falling in European assessments. Remember, before we started with the European assessment, we took out capacity in the southern part of Italy. And as we are still working on the European assessments, we are in the markets, making good progress on that as well.

戰略措施的另一部分在歐洲評估中有所下降。請記住，在我們開始進行歐洲評估之前，我們已經排除了義大利南部地區的產能。由於我們仍在進行歐洲評估工作，我們也在市場上積極開展工作，並且在這方面也取得了良好進展。

So you see that shift, strategically, with all these elements, the ones that Kim alluded to, the ones that I mentioned, to be very well positioned to grow, on one-hand side. But grow also, with a much lower cost position.

所以你可以看到這種戰略轉變，所有這些因素，金正恩提到的那些因素，我提到的那些因素，一方面使美國處於非常有利的發展地位。但同時也能實現成長，而且成本更低。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question-and-answer session.

女士們、先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。

I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Vanacker for any final comments.

我將把發言權交還給範納克先生，請他作最後的總結發言。

Thank you, again, for all the excellent questions.

再次感謝大家提出的所有精彩問題。

I also want to, again, thank our global team for delivering outstanding value and maximizing cash conversion during these challenging times, while operating safely and reliably.

我還要再次感謝我們的全球團隊，感謝他們在這些充滿挑戰的時期，在安全可靠營運的同時，創造了卓越的價值並最大限度地提高了現金轉換率。

Now, I would like to leave you with four key messages.

最後，我想給大家留下四個關鍵訊息。

First of all, we continue to make excellent progress on our strategy to make LYB a much more focused company, with a leading, streamlined, and advantaged asset footprints and product offering.

首先，我們在使 LYB 成為更專注的公司、擁有領先、精簡和優勢的資產佈局和產品組合的策略方面繼續取得優異進展。

Secondly, we're best positioned to navigate this long downcycle and we see early signs of improvement.

其次，我們處於最有利的位置來應對這個漫長的下行週期，而且我們已經看到了早期改善的跡象。

Third, our cash conversion and dividend yield continues to be leading in our industry. And we are well positioned to extend our track record of growing our dividends in 2025.

第三，我們的現金轉換率和股息殖利率在業界持續保持領先地位。我們已做好充分準備，在 2025 年繼續保持股息成長的良好勢頭。

And fourth, we're progressing well with the execution of our company transformation to grow our asset portfolio of cost-advantaged operations from 60% to 70%. And we have started work to simplify our operating model, as a consequence and out of that.

第四，我們在執行公司轉型方面進展順利，目標是將具有成本優勢的業務資產組合從 60% 提高到 70%。因此，我們已經開始著手簡化我們的營運模式。

So with that, we wish you all a great and safe weekend. Stay well. Thank you.

最後，祝大家週末愉快平安。祝您身體健康。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines, at this time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。現在可以斷開線路了。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。