利安德巴塞爾 (LYB) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the LyondellBasell Teleconference. At the request of LyondellBasell, this conference is being recorded for instant replay purposes. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. David Kinney, Head of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

您好，歡迎來到利安德巴塞爾電話會議。應利安德巴塞爾的要求，本次會議正在錄製以供即時重播。 （操作員指示）我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係主管 David Kinney 先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Good day, everybody, and thank you for joining today's call. Before we begin the discussion, I would like to point out that a slide presentation accompanies today's call and is available on our website at www.lyondellbasell.com/investorrelations.

大家好，感謝您參加今天的電話會議。在我們開始討論之前，我想指出今天的電話會議附帶了一張幻燈片演示文稿，可以在我們的網站 www.lyondellbasell.com/investorrelations 上查看。

Today, we will be discussing our business results while making reference to some forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures. We believe the forward-looking statements are based upon reasonable assumptions, and the alternative measures are useful to investors.

今天，我們將討論我們的業務成果，同時參考一些前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則財務指標。我們認為前瞻性陳述是基於合理的假設，替代措施對投資人有用。

Nonetheless, the forward-looking statements are subject to significant risks and uncertainty. We encourage you to learn more about the factors that could lead our actual results to differ by reviewing the cautionary statements in the presentation slides and our regulatory filings, which are also available on our Investor Relations website.

儘管如此，前瞻性陳述仍面臨重大風險和不確定性。我們鼓勵您透過查看簡報投影片和監管文件中的警告聲明（也可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到）來詳細了解可能導致我們的實際結果有所不同的因素。

Comments made on this call will be in regard to our underlying business results using non-GAAP financial measures, such as EBITDA and earnings per share, excluding identified items. Additional documents on our Investor website provide reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP financial measures, together with other disclosures, including the earnings release and our business results discussion.

本次電話會議的評論將涉及我們使用非公認會計原則財務指標的基本業務成果，例如 EBITDA 和每股收益，不包括已確定的項目。我們的投資者網站上的其他文件提供了非公認會計準則財務指標與公認會計準則財務指標的調節表，以及其他披露信息，包括收益發布和我們的業務業績討論。

A recording of this call will be available by telephone beginning at 1:00 p.m. Eastern time today until May 26 by calling (877) 660-6853 in the United States and (201) 612-7415 outside the United States. The access code for both numbers is 13743073.

本次通話的錄音將於下午 1:00 開始透過電話提供。東部時間今天至 5 月 26 日，美國境內請致電 (877) 660-6853，美國境外請致電 (201) 612-7415。這兩個號碼的接入碼都是 13743073。

Joining today's call will be Peter Vanacker, LyondellBasell's Chief Executive Officer; our CFO, Michael McMurray; Kim Foley, our Executive Vice President of Global Olefins and Polyolefins and Refining; Aaron Ledet, our EVP of Intermediates and Derivatives; and Torkel Rhenman, our EVP of Advanced Polymer Solutions.

利安德巴塞爾執行長 Peter Vanacker 也將參加今天的電話會議。我們的財務長麥可‧麥克默里； Kim Foley，我們的全球烯烴和聚烯烴及煉油執行副總裁； Aaron Ledet，我們的中間體和衍生性商品執行副總裁；以及我們先進聚合物解決方案執行副總裁 Torkel Rhenman。

During today's call, we will focus on first quarter results, current market dynamics, our near-term outlook and our long-term strategy.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將重點放在第一季業績、當前市場動態、近期前景和長期策略。

With that being said, I would now like to turn the call over to Peter.

話雖如此，我現在想把電話轉給彼得。

Thank you, David, and welcome to all of you. We appreciate you joining us today as we discuss our first quarter results. During today's call, our leaders will be discussing results in line with the organizational changes we announced on February 19. In addition to her prior responsibilities for Refining & Supply Chain, Kim Foley is now our Executive Vice President for Global Olefins and Polyolefins. Kim will discuss the results for both O&P segments as well as the refining segments.

謝謝你，大衛，歡迎大家。我們感謝您今天加入我們討論我們第一季的業績。在今天的電話會議上，我們的領導者將根據我們2 月19 日宣布的組織變革討論結果。 。 Kim 將討論營運與生產部門以及煉油部門的表現。

Joining us for the first time on our earnings telephone conference in his new role as Executive Vice President, is Aaron Ledet, who is taking over responsibility from Kim in leading our Intermediates and Derivatives segment. Over more than 20 years in the petrochemical industry, with 12 of those years at LYB, Aaron has served in a variety of roles in both Europe and the United States. Most recently, Aaron was responsible for the manufacturing and commercial operations for our O&P Americas segment, where he was also responsible for developing future options for our Houston refinery. Please join me in welcoming Aaron to this call.

Aaron Ledet 以執行副總裁的新身分首次參加我們的財報電話會議，他將接替 Kim 領導我們的中間體和衍生性商品部門。 Aaron 在石化行業工作了 20 多年，其中 12 年在 LYB，曾在歐洲和美國擔任過各種職位。最近，Aaron 負責我們的 O&P 美洲部門的製造和商業運營，同時他也負責為我們的休士頓煉油廠開發未來的選擇。請和我一起歡迎亞倫參加這次電話會議。

Before we dive into the results, I hope you will invest some time to review this year's addition of our Sustainability Report that we released a few weeks ago. Over the past year, we embedded sustainability into our strategy and made significant progress on our ambitions. This year's Sustainability Report describes how LYB is making everyday sustainability a reality.

在我們深入研究結果之前，我希望您花一些時間回顧我們幾週前發布的今年新增的永續發展報告。在過去的一年裡，我們將永續發展納入我們的策略，並在實現我們的雄心壯志方面取得了重大進展。今年的永續發展報告描述了 LYB 如何使日常永續發展成為現實。

Let's turn to Slide 3 and begin the discussion with our continued leadership in safety performance. There is no greater accomplishment than having every member of our team return home to their families every day in the same health as when they began their working day. This is a cornerstone of our successful and sustainable business. LyondellBasell's first quarter incident rate for employees and contractors improved to a rate of only 1 injury per 2 million hours worked. We believe our safety metrics continue to hold a leading position in our industry. And I want to congratulate our team for their outstanding safety performance.

讓我們轉向投影片 3，開始討論我們在安全績效方面的持續領先地位。沒有什麼比讓我們團隊的每個成員每天都以與開始工作時相同的健康狀況回到家人身邊更偉大的成就了。這是我們成功和永續業務的基石。利安德巴塞爾第一季員工和承包商的事故率改善為每 200 萬小時工作時僅發生 1 起受傷事故。我們相信我們的安全指標將繼續在行業中保持領先地位。我要祝賀我們團隊出色的安全表現。

Moving to Slide 4. As we discuss our company's performance during today's teleconference, we hope you will take away 2 main messages. First, LyondellBasell continues to generate resilient results while managing challenging market conditions, which have pressured our industry over the past 2 years. In the first quarter, LYB increased its EBITDA modestly over the fourth quarter. Our cash generation was negatively impacted by a build in working capital for good reasons, higher prices and higher volumes. And we see other encouraging signs that the industry is beginning to recover.

轉向投影片 4。首先，利安德巴塞爾繼續創造有彈性的業績，同時管理充滿挑戰的市場條件，這在過去兩年給我們的行業帶來了壓力。第一季度，LYB 的 EBITDA 較第四季小幅成長。我們的現金產生受到營運資本增加的負面影響，這是有充分理由的：價格上漲和數量增加。我們還看到了其他令人鼓舞的跡象，表明該行業正在開始復甦。

The ratio of oil to gas prices strongly favors LYB's advantage production in North America and the Middle East. Our olefins and polyolefins, Europe, Asia and International segment has returned to profitability. And we're seeing early indications of improvements in the performance of our APS segment.

油氣價格比強烈有利於LYB在北美和中東的優勢生產。我們的烯烴和聚烯烴、歐洲、亞洲和國際部門已恢復獲利。我們看到了 APS 部門業績改善的早期跡象。

The second key message is that LyondellBasell's focused strategy is creating unique opportunities to transform our business. As you have heard me say many times, we are executing on 3 strategic pillars: we're growing and upgrading our core businesses through the startup of our new PO/TBA capacity and the acquisition of our NATPET joint venture in the Middle East. We intend to give a more substantive update on this pillar of our strategy during our second quarter results.

第二個關鍵訊息是利安德巴塞爾的重點策略是創造獨特的機會來實現業務轉型。正如您多次聽到我說過的那樣，我們正在執行 3 個策略支柱：透過啟動新的 PO/TBA 產能以及收購我們在中東的 NATPET 合資企業，我們正在發展和升級我們的核心業務。我們打算在第二季業績報告中對我們策略的這一支柱進行更實質的更新。

Now we're stepping up our performance and culture to embrace value creation through our Value Enhancement Program and the transformation of our APS segment. As you might recall, we gave a detailed update on our VEP during last quarter's results. But the most impactful transformation is the progress we have made on our strategic pillar to build a profitable circular and low-carbon solutions business.

現在，我們正在加強我們的績效和文化，透過我們的價值提升計劃和 APS 部門的轉型來擁抱價值創造。您可能還記得，我們​​在上個季度的業績中提供了有關 VEP 的詳細更新。但最具影響力的轉型是我們在建立獲利的循環和低碳解決方案業務的策略支柱方面取得的進展。

The so-called CLCS business will move our feedstocks away from fossil fuels towards an increasing share of recycled and renewable sources. We're building this business through a disciplined, capital-efficient strategy that leverages our existing infrastructure and our competitive advantages, such as leading positions in growing markets and a global network of deep customer relationships.

所謂的 CLCS 業務將使我們的原料從化石燃料轉向越來越多的回收和再生能源。我們正在透過嚴格的資本效率策略來建立這項業務，該策略利用我們現有的基礎設施和競爭優勢，例如在不斷增長的市場中的領先地位和深厚的客戶關係全球網絡。

In addition to the first quarter improvements in our underlying businesses, I hope you will come away from this call with an improved understanding of our progress in building CLCS and share our excitement for the future of LyondellBasell.

除了第一季我們基礎業務的改善之外，我希望您在結束本次電話會議後能夠更好地了解我們在建立 CLCS 方面的進展，並分享我們對利安德巴塞爾未來的興奮。

Moving to Slide 5. Let's focus on the actions we are taking to build a profitable CLCS business. LYB is targeting capabilities across the circular and low-carbon solutions value chain. We are making a series of strategic investments in plastic waste sourcing, advanced sorting, mechanical recycling and advanced recycling. Slide 5 illustrates how all of these investments fit together to form a comprehensive approach to value creation for LyondellBasell's CLCS business.

轉到投影片 5。 LYB 的目標是跨循環和低碳解決方案價值鏈的能力。我們正在塑膠廢棄物採購、高級分類、機械回收和高級回收方面進行一系列策略性投資。投影片 5 說明了所有這些投資如何結合在一起，形成為 LyondellBasell 的 CLCS 業務創造價值的綜合方法。

LyondellBasell's investments in waste sourcing and advanced sorting enable our company to maximize value from a wide variety of recycled and renewable waste streams. Our network will allow LYB to select the highest value proposition for a particular waste feedstock, whether that involves mechanical recycling, advanced recycling or renewables.

利安德巴塞爾在廢棄物採購和先進分類方面的投資使我們公司能夠從各種回收和可再生廢物流中實現價值最大化。我們的網路將使 LYB 能夠為特定廢棄物原料選擇最高價值主張，無論是機械回收、高級回收或再生能源。

We continue to use JV structures where appropriate to improve capital efficiency and builds in supply chain resiliency, while growing scale and gaining access to market-leading technologies.

我們繼續在適當的情況下使用合資企業結構，以提高資本效率並增強供應鏈彈性，同時擴大規模並獲得市場領先的技術。

Construction is underway in Germany at our Cologne integrated hub for our first advanced recycling asset using LYB's proprietary catalyst technology, MoReTec, with a final investment decision expected next year for a second unit in Houston that will likely be twice the size of the German facility.

我們正在德國科隆綜合中心使用 LYB 專有催化劑技術 MoReTec 建造我們的首個先進回收資產，預計明年將做出最終投資決定，在休士頓建造第二個裝置，其規模可能是德國工廠的兩倍。

We are evaluating options for the potential reuse of the hydro treaters at our Houston refinery to purify recycled and renewable cracker feedstocks. All of these capabilities enable LYB to leverage to substantial investments in our existing cracker and polymerization capacities to process recycled and renewable feedstocks.

我們正在評估休士頓煉油廠加氫處理裝置的潛在再利用方案，以淨化回收和可再生的裂解裝置原料。所有這些能力使 LYB 能夠利用對現有裂解裝置和聚合裝置的大量投資來處理回收和可再生原料。

Finally, in collaboration with converters and brand owners, we bring the recycled and renewable content of these polymers to market through both direct channels and through the custom compounding solutions offered by our APS business. Using mass balancing, the majority of our sales volumes were sold under our well-known Circulen brands.

最後，我們與加工商和品牌所有者合作，透過直接管道和 APS 業務提供的客製化複合解決方案將這些聚合物的回收和可再生成分推向市場。透過品質平衡，我們的大部分銷售都是以我們著名的 Circulen 品牌銷售的。

Turning to Slide 6. You can see how the focused execution of our CLCS strategy is resulting in rapid and meaningful growth in sales volumes for LYB's recycled and renewable-based polymers. In 2023, our volumes grew to 123,000 tons, doubling our 2022 sales. And we expect this excellent momentum will continue as we drive towards our 2030 target of at least 2 million tons per year.

轉向幻燈片 6。 2023 年，我們的產量增加至 123,000 噸，是 2022 年銷量的兩倍。我們預計，隨著我們努力實現 2030 年每年至少 200 萬噸的目標，這種良好的勢頭將持續下去。

Last year, at our Capital Markets Day, we outlined our financial targets for LyondellBasell's CLCS business. We continue to expect an incremental EBITDA contribution of $500 million by 2027 and $1 billion by 2030 from this business. By expanding our regional hubs with disciplined acquisitions and organic growth, we are confident we can continue to build and strengthen the leadership position to serve this undersupplied market while generating attractive margins to achieve our financial targets.

去年，在資本市場日，我們概述了利安德巴塞爾 CLCS 業務的財務目標。我們仍然預計該業務到 2027 年將增加 EBITDA 貢獻 5 億美元，到 2030 年將增加 10 億美元。透過嚴格的收購和有機成長來擴大我們的區域中心，我們有信心能夠繼續建立和加強領導地位，為這個供應不足的市場提供服務，同時創造有吸引力的利潤來實現我們的財務目標。

Let's turn to Slide 7 and summarize our financial results. During the first quarter, LyondellBasell's businesses delivered resilient results from our well-positioned and diverse portfolio. Earnings were $1.53 per share. EBITDA was $1.1 billion. During the quarter, cash from operating activities consumed about $100 million, and our balance sheet remains robust with $6.5 billion of available liquidity.

讓我們轉向投影片 7 來總結我們的財務表現。在第一季度，利安德巴塞爾的業務憑藉我們定位良好和多元化的投資組合取得了富有彈性的表現。每股收益為 1.53 美元。 EBITDA 為 11 億美元。本季，經營活動產生的現金消耗約 1 億美元，我們的資產負債表依然穩健，可用流動資金為 65 億美元。

Let me turn the call over to Michael first, and then to each of the business leaders who will describe our financial and segment results in more detail.

讓我先將電話轉給邁克爾，然後轉給每位業務領導人，他們將更詳細地描述我們的財務和部門表現。

Thank you, Peter, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 8, and let me begin by addressing our cash generation. During the past 4 quarters, LyondellBasell generated $4.3 billion of cash from operating activities. Our team efficiently converted 93% of our EBITDA into cash over the last 12 months. At the end of the quarter, our cash balance was $2.3 billion.

謝謝你，彼得，大家早安。請前往投影片 8，讓我先討論我們的現金產生問題。在過去 4 個季度中，利安德巴塞爾的經營活動產生了 43 億美元的現金。在過去 12 個月裡，我們的團隊有效地將 93% 的 EBITDA 轉化為現金。截至本季末，我們的現金餘額為 23 億美元。

LYB's investment-grade balance sheet remains strong and enables us to continue to execute on our strategy and grow profitably while increasing returns for our shareholders. Let's continue with Slide 9 and review the details of our capital deployment.

LYB 的投資等級資產負債表依然強勁，使我們能夠繼續執行我們的策略並實現獲利成長，同時增加股東的回報。讓我們繼續看投影片 9，回顧一下我們的資本部署的詳細資訊。

During the first quarter, our businesses consumed about $100 million in cash from operating activities. EBITDA improvement was more than offset by a working capital build of just over $600 million. As Peter mentioned, our working capital build was for good reasons, including higher prices and higher volumes, primarily within our O&P-EAI and I&D segments. In O&P-EAI, receivables increased with higher sales volumes as we benefited from the Red Sea logistic disruptions. Our I&D segment had higher receivables due to styrene price increases, and we rebuilt some oxyfuel inventories after fourth quarter maintenance.

第一季度，我們的業務從經營活動中消耗了約 1 億美元的現金。 EBITDA 的改善被略高於 6 億美元的營運資本建設所抵消。正如 Peter 所提到的，我們的營運資本建設有充分的理由，包括更高的價格和更高的產量，主要是在我們的 O&P-EAI 和 I&D 領域。在 O&P-EAI 中，由於我們受益於紅海物流中斷，應收帳款隨著銷售量的增加而增加。由於苯乙烯價格上漲，我們的 I&D 部門的應收帳款增加，並且我們在第四季度維護後重建了一些富氧燃料庫存。

Our resilient cash generation has resulted in $1.8 billion returned to shareholders over the last 12 months through both dividends and share repurchases.

我們富有彈性的現金產生能力在過去 12 個月中透過股息和股票回購為股東帶來了 18 億美元的回報。

During the quarter, we successfully issued $750 million worth of bonds to refinance our 2024 maturity, which reduced our coupon rate by 25 basis points. Our balance sheet is in great shape. We have $11 billion in long-term debt with an average maturity of about 18 years and a 4% average cost of debt.

本季度，我們成功發行了價值 7.5 億美元的債券，為 2024 年到期的債券進行再融資，這使我們的票面利率降低了 25 個基點。我們的資產負債表狀況良好。我們有 110 億美元的長期債務，平均期限約為 18 年，平均債務成本為 4%。

I would now like to provide a brief overview of the results from each of our segments on Slide 10. LyondellBasell's business portfolio delivered $1.1 billion of EBITDA during the first quarter. Profitability improved quarter-over-quarter in 5 of our 6 segments. In our O&P-Americas segment, the absence of fourth quarter inventory valuation benefits sequentially impacted first quarter results. Conversely, our I&D and Refining segments benefited from the absence of fourth quarter inventory valuation charges.

現在，我想在投影片 10 上簡要概述我們每個部門的業績。我們的 6 個細分市場中有 5 個細分市場的獲利能力較上季有所改善。在我們的 O&P-Americas 部門，第四季度庫存估值效益的缺失連續影響了第一季的表現。相反，我們的 I&D 和煉油部門受益於第四季度沒有庫存評估費用。

In our fourth quarter teleconference, we outlined $105 million of first quarter estimated EBITDA impact from planned maintenance in O&P-Americas and Refining. Additional unplanned downtime from winter storm Heather in Houston and other events increased the first quarter estimated EBITDA impact from downtime by approximately $150 million.

在我們第四季度的電話會議上，我們概述了 O&P-Americas 和 Refining 計劃維護對第一季 EBITDA 的估計影響為 1.05 億美元。休士頓冬季風暴希瑟和其他事件導致額外的計劃外停機，使第一季因停機而造成的預計 EBITDA 影響增加了約 1.5 億美元。

Our estimate for second quarter planned maintenance EBITDA impact remains at $30 million and is focused on a turnaround of one of the POSM units in Channelview.

我們對第二季計劃維護 EBITDA 影響的估計仍為 3000 萬美元，重點關注 Channelview 的一個 POSM 部門的周轉。

We continue to align our operating rates with market demand to optimize working capital. During the second quarter, we expect operating rates of 85% for our global olefins and polyolefins assets and 80% for our intermediates and derivative assets.

我們繼續根據市場需求調整我們的開工率，以優化營運資金。第二季度，我們預期全球烯烴和聚烯烴資產的開工率為 85%，中間體和衍生性商品資產的開工率為 80%。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Kim. Kim?

這樣，我就把電話轉給 Kim。金？

Thank you, Michael. After more than 35 years in various leadership positions at LYB, I am very excited to assume responsibility for our O&P segments. Earlier in my career, I was the site manager for our largest site here in Channelview, Texas. It is an honor for me to now lead LyondellBasell's work to grow and upgrade these core businesses for our company.

謝謝你，麥可。在 LYB 擔任各種領導職務超過 35 年後，我非常高興能夠承擔起我們 O&P 部門的責任。在我職業生涯的早期，我是德克薩斯州 Channelview 最大站點的站點經理。我很榮幸現在能夠領導利安德巴塞爾的工作，為我們公司發展和升級這些核心業務。

Let's begin the segment discussions on Slide 11 with the performance of our Olefins and Polyolefins – Americas segment. –First quarter O&P-Americas EBITDA was $521 million. Lower feedstock and energy costs, coupled with stable domestic polyethylene prices, were offset by lower volumes due to planned and unplanned downtime. Olefins margins were supported by higher co-product pricing. As a reminder, fourth quarter results benefited from LIFO inventory valuation changes of $75 million.

讓我們從幻燈片 11 的烯烴和聚烯烴 - 美洲細分市場的表現開始進行細分討論。 – 第一季 O&P-Americas EBITDA 為 5.21 億美元。原料和能源成本的下降，加上國內聚乙烯價格的穩定，被計畫內和計畫外停工導致的產量下降所抵銷。烯烴利潤率受到聯產品定價上漲的支撐。提醒一下，第四季度的業績受惠於 LIFO 庫存估值變動 7,500 萬美元。

During the first quarter, the North American polyethylene demand continued to strengthen and, with the support of strong export markets, led to stable domestic prices despite new capacity entering the market. For the North American industry, domestic polyethylene sales volumes improved by more than 5% relative to the fourth quarter. The addition of new capacity to the North American market in 2023 has led to much higher exports from the region.

一季度，北美聚乙烯需求持續走強，在出口市場強勁的支撐下，儘管有新增產能進入市場，國內價格仍保持穩定。北美產業方面，國內聚乙烯銷量較第四季成長超過5%。 2023年北美市場新增產能導致該地區出口大幅增加。

During the first quarter, North American exports of polyethylene were significantly higher than 2023 average. For LYB, our strong domestic share in North America resulted in approximately 30% of our first quarter sales going to the export customers.

第一季度，北美聚乙烯出口量顯著高於2023年平均值。對於 LYB 來說，我們在北美的強勁國內份額導致我們第一季銷售額的約 30% 流向了出口客戶。

In the second quarter, we expect feedstock and energy costs will remain relatively low, with LYB targeting higher operating rates following downtime in the first quarter. North American integrated polyolefin producers, including LYB, continue to benefit from a highly advantaged oil to gas ratio, leading to a significantly lower cost relative to oil-derived production.

我們預計第二季原料和能源成本將保持相對較低，LYB 的目標是在第一季停工後提高開工率。包括 LYB 在內的北美綜合聚烯烴生產商繼續受益於高度優勢的油氣比，從而導致相對於石油衍生生產的成本顯著降低。

With the remainder of the U.S. polyethylene capacity now online, the market is well supplied, yet demand is keeping the industry inventories relatively balanced at about 40 days of supply. We remain focused on aligning our operating rates to serve domestic and export market demand.

由於美國剩餘的聚乙烯產能現已上線，市場供應充足，但需求使產業庫存保持相對平衡，供應量約 40 天。我們仍專注於調整開工率，以滿足國內和出口市場的需求。

As Peter mentioned, we are focused on growing our circular and low-carbon solutions business to build our leadership in the attractive markets of premium recycled and renewable-based polymers. In February, we announced the acquisition of mechanical recycling assets from PreZero and Jurupa Valley, California. These assets extend our recycling footprint into the Greater Los Angeles Metropolitan area, providing good access to plastic waste feedstock in the region. We believe California offers a favorable backdrop to increase the recovery of plastic waste with better infrastructure, higher recycling rates and supportive policies.

正如彼得所提到的，我們專注於發展我們的循環和低碳解決方案業務，以建立我們在優質回收和可再生聚合物的有吸引力的市場中的領導地位。 2 月，我們宣布收購 PreZero 和加州 Jurupa Valley 的機械回收資產。這些資產將我們的回收足跡擴展到大洛杉磯都會區，為該地區的塑膠廢棄物原料提供了良好的取得途徑。我們相信，加州擁有更好的基礎設施、更高的回收率和支持性政策，為增加塑膠廢棄物的回收提供了有利的背景。

Please turn to Slide 12 as we review the performance of our Olefins and Polyolefins Europe, Asia and International segment. In the first quarter, higher volumes from near-shoring, combined with increased demand from restocking, drove improved results in Europe and Asia, resulting in EBITDA of $14 million. Additionally, throughout the quarter, logistical challenges in the Red Sea proved beneficial for local European producers, resulting in increased volumes and fixed cost recovery. In Europe, variable margins benefited from modest price increases that were mostly offset by higher feedstock costs.

請參閱投影片 12，我們將回顧歐洲、亞洲和國際烯烴和聚烯烴部門的表現。第一季度，近岸交貨量增加，加上補貨需求增加，推動歐洲和亞洲業績改善，EBITDA 達到 1,400 萬美元。此外，整個季度，紅海的物流挑戰對歐洲當地生產商有利，導致產量增加和固定成本回收。在歐洲，可變利潤受惠於價格小幅上漲，但大部分被原料成本上漲所抵銷。

As we progress through the second quarter, we expect European Olefins and Polymers results to improve due to firm pricing, lower energy costs and improved seasonal demand. In addition, we continue to monitor the slow and gradual return of Chinese demand.

隨著第二季的進展，我們預期歐洲烯烴和聚合物業績將因定價堅挺、能源成本下降和季節性需求改善而改善。此外，我們持續關注中國需求緩慢且逐步恢復的情況。

Finally, we are staying true to our commitment to grow and upgrade our core businesses. Our acquisition of the Saudi Arabian NATPET joint venture is expected to close in the coming months. The NATPET acquisition is an excellent example of LyondellBasell's strategy to drive long-term growth with advantaged assets.

最後，我們恪守發展和升級核心業務的承諾。我們對沙烏地阿拉伯 NATPET 合資企業的收購預計將在未來幾個月內完成。收購 NATPET 是利安德巴塞爾利用優勢資產推動長期成長策略的一個很好的例子。

In line with our sustainability goals, we signed another renewable power purchase agreement of 208 megawatts of generation capacity in Germany. With this new agreement, LyondellBasell is rapidly moving towards our 2030 target to supply at least half of our electricity from renewable sources. We now have more than 90% of our 2030 target sourced through agreements for wind and solar electricity capacity.

根據我們的永續發展目標，我們在德國簽署了另一份 208 兆瓦發電量的再生能源電力採購協議。透過這項新協議，利安德巴塞爾正在迅速朝著我們的 2030 年目標邁進，即透過再生能源供應至少一半的電力。現在，我們 2030 年目標的 90% 以上是透過風能和太陽能發電能力協議實現的。

Now let's turn to Slide 13 and discuss the results for the Refining segment. First quarter EBITDA was $71 million. Fourth quarter 2023 results were impacted by LIFO charges of approximately $40 million. Improvement in the gasoline crack spread was partially offset by lower volumes related to planned and unplanned downtime. As previously mentioned, we have implemented a hedging program for a portion of our distillate production to mitigate risk throughout 2024. During the first quarter, distillate cracks outperformed expectations and our results include a mark-to-market losses for the program.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 13 並討論精煉部分的結果。第一季 EBITDA 為 7,100 萬美元。 2023 年第四季的業績受到約 4,000 萬美元的 LIFO 費用的影響。汽油裂解價差的改善被計劃內和計劃外停機相關的產量減少部分抵消。如前所述，我們對部分餾分油生產實施了避險計劃，以降低2024 年全年的風險。 。

In the near term, we expect seasonally stronger demand for gasoline amid rising crude oil prices. We intend to maximize crude throughput at the refinery, and operated approximately 95% of capacity in the second quarter.

短期內，我們預期在原油價格上漲的情況下，汽油需求將出現季節性走強。我們打算最大限度地提高煉油廠的原油吞吐量，並在第二季度運作了約 95% 的產能。

Looking ahead, we remain committed to the safe and reliable operation of these assets. We will continue to target high operating rates until ramp-down begins in the first quarter of 2025. Our team is evaluating several new projects to transform the site in support of our circular and low-carbon solution growth strategy.

展望未來，我們仍致力於這些資產的安全可靠營運。我們將繼續以高開工率為目標，直到 2025 年第一季開始停產。

With that, I will turn the call over to Aaron.

這樣，我會將電話轉給亞倫。

Thank you, Kim, and thank you, Peter, for the kind introduction at the beginning of the call. Like Kim, I'm honored to have the opportunity to lead the Intermediates & Derivatives segment.

謝謝金，謝謝彼得在通話開始時的熱情介紹。和 Kim 一樣，我很榮幸有機會領導中間體和衍生性商品部門。

During my career at LyondellBasell, I have served in leadership roles touching on supply chain, APS, Europe, I&D, Refining, and most recently leading O&P in the Americas. I look forward to my new responsibilities to drive value creation and growth across the core businesses within Intermediates & Derivatives at LYB.

在利安德巴塞爾的職業生涯中，我曾擔任過供應鏈、APS、歐洲、I&D、煉油以及最近在美洲負責 O&P 的領導職務。我期待著新的職責，推動 LYB 中間體和衍生性商品核心業務的價值創造和成長。

Please turn to Slide 14 as we look at the Intermediates & Derivatives segment. In the first quarter, segment EBITDA was $312 million. As a reminder, the fourth quarter results were impacted by LIFO charges of approximately $95 million. Our European propylene oxide and derivatives business benefited from logistics disruptions in the Red Sea, leading to near-shoring of local demand that drove higher volumes and margins in the region, a dynamic which has continued into the second quarter.

請參閱投影片 14，我們將了解中間體和衍生物部分。第一季度，該部門 EBITDA 為 3.12 億美元。需要提醒的是，第四季業績受到約 9,500 萬美元後進先出費用的影響。我們的歐洲環氧丙烷和衍生性商品業務受惠於紅海的物流中斷，導致當地需求近岸化，從而推動了該地區銷售和利潤的增加，這種動態一直持續到第二季​​。

In the first quarter, oxyfuels margins declined due to lower premiums for oxyfuels relative to gasoline. Despite these headwinds, oxyfuels margins remained more than double the level typically seen during the seasonally slow first quarter. Industry outages during the first quarter led to higher styrene margins that have since normalized in April.

第一季度，由於富氧燃料相對於汽油的溢價較低，富氧燃料利潤率下降。儘管存在這些不利因素，富氧燃料的利潤率仍是季節性放緩的第一季通常水準的兩倍以上。第一季的產業停電導致苯乙烯利潤率上升，此後該利潤率已於 4 月恢復正常。

Looking ahead, we anticipate seasonal improvements across all businesses in the segment including benefits from the summer driving season and lower butane costs, providing support for continued strength in oxyfuels margins.

展望未來，我們預計該領域所有業務都會出現季節性改善，包括夏季駕駛季節帶來的好處和較低的丁烷成本，從而為富氧燃料利潤率的持續走強提供支持。

In line with our guidance from the beginning of the year, we have planned maintenance underway at one of our POSM assets in Channelview, Texas. We expect higher volumes across most of our business following unplanned downtime in the first quarter. Our team continues to do a fantastic job in running our new PO/TBA facility with high reliability and utilization while ensuring superb product quality. After considering planned maintenance, we expect to operate at an average rate of about 80% of I&D capacity during the second quarter.

根據我們今年年初的指導，我們計劃對位於德克薩斯州 Channelview 的 POSM 資產之一進行維護。我們預計，在第一季計劃外停機之後，我們大部分業務的銷售量都會增加。我們的團隊繼續出色地運行我們的新 PO/TBA 設施，具有高可靠性和利用率，同時確保卓越的產品品質。在考慮計劃維護後，我們預計第二季 I&D 產能的平均運作率約為 80%。

The process to complete the sale of our ethylene oxide derivatives businesses to INEOS is well underway, and we expect to finalize the transaction in the second quarter. We anticipate a book gain on sale of $275 million, which will be reflected as an identified item during the second quarter.

完成向英力士出售環氧乙烷衍生性商品業務的過程正在順利進行，我們預計將在第二季完成交易。我們預計銷售帳面收益為 2.75 億美元，這將在第二季作為一個確定的項目反映出來。

With that, I will turn the call over to Torkel.

這樣，我會將電話轉給托克爾。

Thank you, Aaron. Let's review the first quarter results for the Advanced Polymer Solutions segment on Slide 15. First quarter EBITDA was $35 million. Volumes increased 12% across our portfolio driven by improving seasonal demand and the lack of typical fourth quarter customers' downtime.

謝謝你，亞倫。讓我們回顧一下幻燈片 15 上先進聚合物解決方案部門的第一季業績。由於季節性需求改善以及第四季度客戶正常停機的情況減少，我們的產品組合銷售量增加了 12%。

Variable margins increased due to higher pricing and product mix improvements. This was offset by fixed cost investments during the quarter as we moved forward on our APS transformation.

由於定價上漲和產品組合改進，可變利潤增加。隨著我們推進 APS 轉型，本季的固定成本投資抵銷了這一影響。

In the second quarter, we expect volumes will continue to show modest improvement benefiting from both seasonally higher demand and our growing pipeline of new business. We continue to see good momentum as we expand our growth funnel, with our team highly focused on winning projects with both new and existing customers. Utilizing both our recently acquired metal assets as well as our existing asset base, we are providing customers with innovative and sustainable solutions. We believe that our APS transformation, coupled with market recovery, will deliver results to reach the goals we laid out at our Capital Markets Day last year.

在第二季度，我們預計，受益於季節性需求增加和新業務不斷增長，銷售將繼續出現適度改善。隨著我們擴大成長管道，我們繼續看到良好的勢頭，我們的團隊高度專注於贏得新客戶和現有客戶的專案。利用我們最近收購的金屬資產以及現有的資產基礎，我們為客戶提供創新和永續的解決方案。我們相信，我們的 APS 轉型，加上市場復甦，將取得成果，實現我們在去年資本市場日所設定的目標。

With that, I will return the call back to Peter.

這樣，我會將電話回給彼得。

Thank you, Torkel. And please turn to Slide 16, and I will discuss the results for the Technology segment on behalf of Jim Seward.

謝謝你，托克爾。請參閱投影片 16，我將代表 Jim Seward 討論技術部分的結果。

First quarter EBITDA of $118 million reflected higher licensing revenue and improved catalyst margins. In the second quarter, we expect that revenue associated with licensing milestones will decrease, matching fourth quarter 2023 levels, but will be slightly offset by an increased catalyst volumes. As a result, we estimate that second quarter Technology segment results will be similar or perhaps, slightly better than fourth quarter results.

第一季 EBITDA 為 1.18 億美元，反映出授權收入的增加和催化劑利潤率的提高。在第二季度，我們預計與許可里程碑相關的收入將減少，與 2023 年第四季度的水平相當，但將被催化劑數量的增加略有抵消。因此，我們估計第二季技術部門的業績將與第四季的業績相似或可能略好。

Please turn to Slide 17 as we discuss the near-term market outlook by regions and end markets. As you heard from our business leaders, we expect to see typical increases in seasonal demand along with some moderate improvements in markets throughout the year. In the Americas, improving export demand for polyethylene is expected to further tighten domestic markets. And additionally, low ethane costs should continue to strengthen integrated polyethylene margins.

請參閱投影片 17，我們將按地區和終端市場討論近期市場前景。正如您從我們的企業領導人那裡聽到的那樣，我們預計季節性需求將出現典型增長，同時市場全年也會出現一些溫和的改善。在美洲，聚乙烯出口需求的改善預計將進一步收緊國內市場。此外，較低的乙烷成本應會持續增強聚乙烯的綜合利潤率。

As we move through the year, we expect European markets will begin to see modest improvements. Industrial activity in the region is increasing, and we expect demand will continue to recover as long energy costs gradually improve confidence. The Red Sea logistics disruptions that bolstered first quarter demand continued to influence local purchasing decisions. China markets are exhibiting very slow but steady improvements. We're encouraged by China's targeted stimulus efforts and remain watchful for indications that these measures will deliver meaningful improvements in demand for LYB's products.

隨著今年的進展，我們預計歐洲市場將開始出現適度的改善。該地區的工業活動正在增加，我們預計隨著長期能源成本信心的逐步提高，需求將繼續復甦。紅海物流中斷提振了第一季的需求，持續影響當地的採購決策。中國市場正在呈現非常緩慢但穩定的改善。我們對中國的定向刺激措施感到鼓舞，並繼續關注這些措施將顯著改善 LYB 產品需求的跡象。

For the packaging sector, demand for nondurables has been consistent. Given that destocking across the packaging value chain seems to be complete, we look forward to the potential for restocking ahead.

對於包裝業來說，對非耐用品的需求一直保持不變。鑑於整個包裝價值鏈的去庫存似乎已經完成，我們期待未來重​​新庫存的潛力。

In Building & Construction, we expect to see some benefits from moderating and perhaps falling interest rates and the inevitable recovery in demand for durable goods. In the U.S., stimulus funding from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law will begin to support improving demand for commercial construction with growing benefits expected as the year unfolds.

在建築業中，我們預計利率放緩甚至可能下降以及耐用品需求不可避免的復甦將帶來一些好處。在美國，兩黨基礎設施法案提供的刺激資金將開始支持商業建築需求的持續增長，預計今年的效益將持續增長。

In the automotive sector, global production is expected to modestly improve from first quarter levels throughout 2024. Moreover, our APS segment is committed to strategic initiatives focused on winning back customers and growing the business.

在汽車產業，預計 2024 年全球產量將較第一季水準略有改善。

And in oxyfuels and refining, gasoline crack spreads are improving from the lows we saw at the end of the fourth quarter of last year. U.S. vehicle miles traveled have returned to pre-pandemic levels and the value for octane from our oxyfuels is strong. At LYB, we continue to optimize our assets on a global scale by aligning our operating rates to meet market demand and maximize cash generation.

在富氧燃料和煉油領域，汽油裂解價差正從去年第四季末的低點有所改善。美國的車輛行駛里程已恢復到大流行前的水平，並且我們的富氧燃料的辛烷價值很高。在 LYB，我們透過調整營運率來滿足市場需求並最大化現金生成，從而繼續在全球範圍內優化我們的資產。

Now let me summarize the first quarter, our outlook and our long-term strategy for the company, with Slide 18. As we move into the summer months, we anticipate seasonal improvements across our businesses in the second quarter. Moving through the year, we expect improvement in the second half driven by stable to lower interest rates and modestly higher demand. LYB's U.S. and Middle East production should continue to benefit from advantaged natural gas-based feedstock and energy costs compared to oil-based peers. Red Sea logistic disruptions were beneficial to our European businesses in the first quarter of 2024 and the time it will take for these tailwinds to fade is uncertain.

現在讓我用投影片 18 總結第一季、我們的前景和公司的長期策略。展望今年，我們預計下半年將出現改善，原因是利率穩定至較低以及需求小幅上升。與石油同行相比，LYB 在美國和中東的生產應繼續受益於天然氣原料和能源成本的優勢。 2024 年第一季度，紅海物流中斷對我們的歐洲業務有利，但這些利好何時消退尚不確定。

As we mentioned in our fourth quarter earnings call, we are committed to delivering $600 million of recurring annual EBITDA by the end of 2024 through our Value Enhancement Program. We continue to see enthusiastic support for the program across the company as it becomes an evergreen part of our culture. Our team will continue to remain focused on advancing value creation through the 3 pillars of our long-term strategy.

正如我們在第四季度財報電話會議中所提到的，我們致力於透過我們的價值提升計劃，到 2024 年底實現 6 億美元的經常性年度 EBITDA。我們繼續看到整個公司對該計劃的熱情支持，因為它已成為我們文化中常青的一部分。我們的團隊將繼續專注於透過長期策略的三大支柱來推動價值創造。

Progress continues on growing and upgrading our core businesses. In the coming months, we expect to close on the acquisition of our NATPET propylene and polypropylene joint venture in Saudi Arabia. Our divestiture of ethylene oxide and derivatives business to INEOS is expected to occur during the second quarter.

我們的核心業務不斷發展和升級。在接下來的幾個月中，我們預計將完成對沙烏地阿拉伯 NATPET 丙烯和聚丙烯合資企業的收購。我們預計將在第二季將環氧乙烷和衍生性商品業務剝離給英力士。

As we discussed today, LYB continues to build a comprehensive business model to support a profitable Circular and Low-Carbon Solutions business. LyondellBasell is making smart investments to build capabilities across every step of the value chain with a global scale in mind.

正如我們今天所討論的，LYB 繼續建立全面的業務模式，以支援可獲利的循環和低碳解決方案業務。利安德巴塞爾正在進行明智的投資，以在全球範圍內建立價值鏈每一步的能力。

With construction already underway for our first MoReTec advanced recycling assets in Germany, we're building on this momentum with FID for our second larger unit in Houston plants for 2025. Our actions demonstrate LYB's commitment to capture value with Circular and Low-Carbon Solutions.

我們在德國的第一個MoReTec 先進回收資產的建設已經開始，我們將在此勢頭的基礎上，於2025 年為休斯頓工廠的第二個大型裝置進行FID。碳解決方案獲取價值的承諾。

Our value enhancement program continues to grow and is a key element of our company culture. Currently, the program is on track to add up to $1 billion of incremental recurring annual EBITDA by the end of 2025, significantly surpassing our original goals. We're laser focused on our target to deliver a more profitable and sustainable growth engine for LyondellBasell.

我們的價值提升計畫不斷發展，是我們公司文化的關鍵要素。目前，該計劃預計在 2025 年底前增加高達 10 億美元的經常性年度 EBITDA，大大超越我們最初的目標。我們專注於為利安德巴塞爾提供利潤更高、更永續的成長引擎的目標。

Now with that, we're pleased to take your questions.

現在，我們很高興回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Steve Byrne。

I'm interested in the level of demand that you're hearing from your downstream polyethylene customers for your renewable products, whether (technical difficulty) are they willing to sign a long-term contract (technical difficulty) in Houston, will you (technical difficulty) long-term contracts (technical difficulty) and do you expect these to be cost plus given how hydrogen requirements (technical difficulty) feedstocks. So just curious whether you think this would be cost plus.

我對您從下游聚乙烯客戶那裡聽到的對您的可再生產品的需求水平感興趣，他們是否（技術難度）願意在休斯頓簽署長期合約（技術難度），您願意嗎？ 困難）長期合約（技術難度），考慮到氫需求（技術難度）原料，您是否期望這些是成本加成。所以只是好奇你是否認為這會增加成本。

Steve, I mean, thanks for your question. This is Peter. It was a bit difficult, I mean, to understand the line was breaking up. But you were asking for our level of demand on the renewable side of polyethylene as well as if it is cost plus or not.

史蒂夫，我的意思是，謝謝你的問題。這是彼得。我的意思是，要理解線路正在中斷有點困難。但您詢問我們對聚乙烯可再生的需求程度以及是否為成本加成。

Well, we continue to see very good traction in that market. You saw from our presentation that last year we doubled approximately the volumes of our Circulen family, so the mechanical recycles, the advanced recycles and as well the nonplastic waste renewables, so biowaste recycled products. We have -- continue to see very good demand in that regard. We see also that regulation is advancing, particularly in Europe.

嗯，我們繼續看到該市場的良好吸引力。您從我們的演示中看到，去年我們將 Circulen 系列的產量增加了一倍，包括機械回收、高級回收以及非塑膠廢物可再生能源，即生物廢物回收產品。我們繼續看到這方面的需求非常旺盛。我們也看到監管正在進步，特別是在歐洲。

With regards to the contract structures, if we take our first investments in the advanced recycling technology, our MoReTec technology in the Cologne up in Wesseling, then we have a big part of the capacity already contracted. We, on purpose, do not contract the entire capacity because we believe there will be value that we can capture for that part that is not contracted once we start up the facility.

就合約結構而言，如果我們將第一筆投資用於先進的回收技術，即我們在科隆的 MoReTec 技術，那麼我們的大部分產能已經簽訂了合約。我們故意不承包整個產能，因為我們相信一旦我們啟動設施，我們就可以從未承包的部分中獲取價值。

We are not contracting on a cost-plus basis. I said that multiple times. These markets will have its own supply and demand, and that is actually what we currently are seeing. That means that pricing for renewable, recycled polyethylene, but also polypropylene, has its own price points that is being set in the marketplace. And all that we see is still very much aligned even ahead of what we had said in March last year at the Capital Markets Day.

我們不是在成本加成的基礎上簽訂合約。我說過很多次了。這些市場將有自己的供給和需求，這實際上就是我們目前所看到的。這意味著可再生、再生聚乙烯以及聚丙烯的定價都有自己的市場定價點。我們所看到的一切仍然與我們去年三月在資本市場日所說的內容非常一致。

Our next question comes from the line of Patrick Cunningham with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Patrick Cunningham。

So O&P-EAI seems to be seeing some nice benefits from volume trends and firmer prices, particularly in Europe. How do you expect prices to trend into the second quarter and throughout the year? And do you get any sense we may see some reversal in this near shoring and restocking trends that you've highlighted?

因此，O&P-EAI 似乎從銷售趨勢和堅挺的價格中看到了一些不錯的好處，尤其是在歐洲。您預計第二季和全年的價格趨勢如何？您是否感覺到我們可能會看到您強調的近岸和補貨趨勢出現一些逆轉？

Good question, Patrick. And of course, we are very pleased that we see that the situation is changing in Europe. Of course, as you alluded to and as we said in the prepared remarks, held by discontinuity because of the issues in the Red Sea.

好問題，派崔克。當然，我們很高興看到歐洲的情況正在改變。當然，正如你所提到的，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，由於紅海問題而造成了不連續性。

Generally spoken, and then I will hand over to Kim. Generally spoken, we see that situation not changing very rapidly because the behavior of our customers has changed, that they are buying more locally than eventually relying on cheap imports. So therefore, we expect, as we alluded to in the prepared remarks, I mean, to see further advancement in our profitability in that particular region in the second quarter. Kim, you want to add something to that?

一般而言，然後我將交給 Kim。一般來說，我們認為這種情況並沒有很快改變，因為我們客戶的行為發生了變化，他們更多地在本地購買而不是最終依賴廉價進口產品。因此，正如我們在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我的意思是，我們預計第二季度該特定地區的盈利能力將進一步提高。 Kim，你想補充一些東西嗎？

I think the only thing that I would add, Peter, is we continue to see strength in packaging, which you alluded to in our prepared remarks. And none of us can predict what's going to happen with the supply chains, and so long as that threat is out there, I think we'll continue to see more nearshoring.

彼得，我想我唯一要補充的是，我們繼續看到包裝的力量，您在我們準備好的演講中提到了這一點。我們誰都無法預測供應鏈會發生什麼，只要這種威脅存在，我認為我們就會繼續看到更多的近岸外包。

And another topic that I want to point out is everybody has noticed that now in Europe, there is consolidation announcements in the market. So if you do the back-of-the-envelope calculation of, in total, now the 3 announcements that have been made, then we're talking about approximately 1.5 million tons of ethylene capacity, that in, let's say, relatively short term should disappear in the market.

我想指出的另一個主題是，大家都注意到，現在在歐洲，市場上有整合公告。因此，如果您對目前已發布的 3 項公告進行粗略計算，那麼我們談論的是大約 150 萬噸乙烯產能，可以說，在相對短期內應該在市場上消失。

Another point that I want to allude to is that the average age of crackers in Europe is about 45 years, whereby in Europe and the United States it's less than 30 years. There are about 40 crackers in Europe, close to half of them have a capacity that is lower than 500,000 tons per year. So you see that restructuring is actually starting to happen in Europe. And if these announcements are being made, then we would expect also that is being taken into consideration in the value chain, that means our customers and customers of our customers, in where they want to secure their products.

我想提到的另一點是，歐洲餅乾的平均年齡約為45年，而歐洲和美國則不到30年。歐洲約有40家裂解裝置，其中近一半的產能低於每年50萬噸。所以你可以看到，歐洲其實已經開始重組。如果發布了這些公告，那麼我們預期價值鏈中也會考慮到這一點，這意味著我們的客戶和我們客戶的客戶，他們希望在其中保護他們的產品。

Having said that, we do not see yet in Europe that there is restocking. So what Kim was alluding to is mainly based upon higher demand because of higher consumption downstream of products being produced. So it's not yet restocking.

話雖如此，我們在歐洲還沒有看到補貨的情況。因此，金所指的主要是由於生產產品的下游消費增加而導致需求增加。所以還沒有補貨。

Our next question comes from the line of Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

And congrats, Kim, on the new role. Why don't we stay with Europe for a minute or two? First off, you indicated that global O&P operates, you expect that 85% in the second quarter. Curious what the split might be Americas versus Europe. But it does seem that the business is catching a break with the Red Sea issues. And to your point, Peter, you also indicated that you were starting to see some rationalizations and so forth.

恭喜 Kim 擔任新職務。我們為什麼不在歐洲待一兩分鐘？首先，您表示全球 O&P 正在運營，您預計第二季將達到 85%。很好奇美洲與歐洲的分歧可能是什麼。但該業務似乎確實正在擺脫紅海問題。就你的觀點而言，彼得，你也表示你開始看到一些合理化等等。

You have already taken some actions. Is there more that we should be expecting to happen in Europe? Theoretically, the threat in the Red Sea will be neutralized, and then we'll start to see the global trade flows again, and that will obviously appear to catalyze some actions. So any color there would be very helpful.

你已經採取了一些行動。我們應該期待歐洲發生更多事情嗎？從理論上講，紅海的威脅將被消除，然後我們將開始再次看到全球貿易流動，這顯然會催化一些行動。所以任何顏色都會非常有幫助。

Let me take the latter part of your question. Very good question, as usual, Frank. The latter part, I mean around our assets. You rightfully said, we took a very early step when the industry was not undertaking any steps yet, by rationalizing our polypropylene facility to 1 line in the southern part of Italy, in Brindisi. Of course, we've always said that we continue to look at all the different assets that we have in Europe, taking into consideration that we have flexible assets in Europe compared to some other assets that are still there in the industry that are not flexible, that are subscale, that were dealing with high costs, that we have a quite good position with our assets if you look at the cash cost curve in Europe.

讓我回答你問題的後半部。像往常一樣，非常好的問題，弗蘭克。後一部分，我的意思是圍繞我們的資產。您說得對，當產業尚未採取任何措施時，我們採取了非常早期的步驟，將我們的聚丙烯工廠合理化為義大利南部布林迪西的 1 條生產線。當然，我們一直說我們會繼續關注我們在歐洲擁有的所有不同資產，考慮到我們在歐洲擁有靈活的資產，而行業中仍然存在一些其他不靈活的資產。高成本，如果你看看歐洲的現金成本曲線，我們的資產處於相當好的位置。

But nevertheless, as we said before, we continue to strategically evaluate our positions in Europe. As I alluded to before, we are quite positive by the dynamics around new regulation that supports the demand for recycled products. And therefore, we've also said, I mean, our Cologne assets were very strategic in that regard. We're building up our Cologne hub around, I mean, renewable polyolefins, around advanced recycling with the MoReTec investments. So that will continue to get a lot of focus as we move forward.

但儘管如此，正如我們之前所說，我們將繼續策略性地評估我們在歐洲的地位。正如我之前提到的，我們對支持回收產品需求的新法規的動態非常樂觀。因此，我們也說過，我的意思是，我們的科隆資產在這方面非常具有戰略意義。我的意思是，我們正在透過 MoReTec 投資圍繞可再生聚烯烴和先進回收利用來建造我們的科隆中心。因此，隨著我們的前進，這將繼續成為人們關注的焦點。

On the short-term question with the Red Sea, anything that we can add, I mean, Kim?

關於紅海的短期問題，我的意思是，金，我們可以補充什麼？

I think I want to go back to the first part of Frank's question, just so I answer that. As many of you saw in the prepared remarks and the releases this morning, our first quarter North American olefins and polyolefins would operate at our crackers at about 75%. So you asked the question about operating rates for global OPAM. I would say OPAM or global O&P-Americas as well as global, Europe, Asia and International are both at 85% in the second half -- or the second quarter of the year.

我想我想回到弗蘭克問題的第一部分，這樣我就可以回答這個問題。正如你們許多人在準備好的發言和今天早上發布的新聞稿中看到的那樣，我們第一季的北美烯烴和聚烯烴將以約 75% 的速度在我們的裂解裝置上運行。您問了有關全球 OPAM 開工率的問題。我想說，OPAM 或全球 O&P-美洲以及全球、歐洲、亞洲和國際在下半年（即今年第二季）都達到 85%。

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Blair with Tudor Pickering Holt.

我們的下一個問題來自馬修·布萊爾和都鐸·皮克林·霍爾特的對話。

Could you go into your outlook for PE pricing in the second quarter as well as the back half of the year? Is it fair to say that the export demand right now is stronger than domestic demand for PE? And then also, could you talk a little bit about just overall inventory levels?

您能否談談對第二季和下半年PE定價的展望？可以說目前PE的出口需求強於國內需求嗎？另外，您能談談整體庫存水準嗎？

Thank you, Matthew. Before I hand over to Kim, let me point out that we are, of course, very pleased to see that domestic demand in the United States has improved by 5% versus Q4 last year. Reminding everybody that this is the strongest quarter since Q3 2022.

謝謝你，馬修。在我向 Kim 報告之前，請容我指出，我們當然非常高興看到美國的國內需求比去年第四季增加了 5%。提醒大家，這是自 2022 年第三季以來最強勁的季度。

In addition to that, as you rightfully said, I mean, the export sales continue to grow, actually breaking records, for the fourth consecutive quarter, which is not so much a surprise if you see at the cost base and if you see the differential between oil and gas. So these are very good dynamics that we see in the marketplace for PE and for producers like ourself with a very low cost basis in the Gulf. Kim?

除此之外，正如您所說，我的意思是，出口銷售繼續增長，實際上連續第四個季度打破記錄，如果您看到成本基礎和差異，這並不令人意外石油和天然氣之間。因此，我們在 PE 市場以及像我們這樣在海灣地區成本非常低的生產商中看到了非常好的動態。金？

So Peter, I think what I would add to that, and it's hidden throughout our messaging today, is that domestic demand, as you mentioned, is up, export demand is up. Just to put numbers to your comment around year-on-year. Year-on-year PE exports out of North America are up 27%. So the new capacity that's now online is absolutely being exported around the world. Those channels to market are open. We're involved in all of those. And we're very optimistic now that we have our cracker back up in Corpus Christi, that we're going to be able to fulfill all those channels.

彼得，我想我要補充的是，正如您所提到的，國內需求上升，出口需求上升，這一點隱藏在我們今天的訊息中。只是為了在您的評論中添加與去年同期相比的數字。北美 PE 出口量年增 27%。因此，現在上線的新產能絕對會出口到世界各地。這些市場通路是開放的。我們參與了所有這些。現在我們非常樂觀，因為我們的破解者已經在科珀斯克里斯蒂恢復了，我們將能夠滿足所有這些管道的需求。

So yes, as you think about it, we've got a high oil to gas ratio, we've got low energy. The U.S. is set with a very competitive advantage to meet the demands of the world.

所以，是的，正如你所想，我們的石油與天然氣的比率很高，但能源卻很低。美國在滿足世界需求方面具有非常強的競爭優勢。

And a couple of points that I also want to outline here, if you look at days on hand and PE, it went down from Q4 to Q1, I mean, from 42 to 40. So you see there as well domestic demand going up, export sales, the topics, I mean, also that Kim highlighted. So we saw also that the capacity utilization [industry] despite, I mean, that we saw a lot of additional capacity being brought online, and we believe that most of that capacity is now producing, maybe a couple of exemptions there with some technical issues, but there is not a lot of major capacities in the United States that still need to come online. So we saw capacity utilization actually moving up to around 90% in PE in the United States.

我還想在這裡概述幾點，如果你看看現有天數和市盈率，它從第四季度下降到第一季度，我的意思是，從42 下降到40。上升，我的意思是，出口銷售也是金強調的主題。因此，我們也看到了產能利用率[行業]，儘管我的意思是，我們看到了許多額外的產能上線，而且我們相信大部分產能現在正在生產，也許有一些豁免存在一些技術問題，但美國仍然需要上線的主要產能並不多。因此，我們看到美國 PE 的產能利用率實際上上升到了 90% 左右。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的傑夫‧澤考斯卡斯 (Jeff Zekauskas)。

I have a 2-part question. Is the real break on polyethylene prices, the overcapacity situation in China? And do you think that what the market needs is either a tighter supply/demand balance in China or something moving China prices up in order for prices to really be affected positively in the other jurisdiction?

我有一個由兩個部分組成的問題。聚乙烯價格真正突破，是中國的產能過剩狀況嗎？您認為市場需要的是中國的供需平衡更加緊張，還是推動中國的價格上漲，以便真正對其他司法管轄區的價格產生正面影響？

The second part is, on Slide 11, under the our actions and talking about olefins and polyolefins America, you say balancing domestic demand with disciplined capacity utilization. What does that exactly mean?

第二部分是，在投影片 11 上，根據我們的行動並談論美國的烯烴和聚烯烴，您說平衡國內需求與嚴格的產能利用率。這究竟意味著什麼？

Let me go I mean to your first question, [Josh]. Indeed, as you rightfully pointed out, even if we have seen a little bit of an uptick in demand in China, I would make the case that everybody is bleeding. Margins are not where they need to be. Naphtha is expensive.

讓我走吧，我是說你的第一個問題，[喬許]。事實上，正如您正確指出的那樣，即使我們看到中國的需求略有上升，我也會證明每個人都在流血。利潤不在他們需要的地方。石腦油價格昂貴。

And then the question is how long will that last? Because there may be newer facilities, of course, that can hold on longer, but there is also quite a lot of subscale capacities in China. And I'm sure after, how much, 12, 18 months of bleeding, even 24 months of bleeding, how long will that then last until we will see some actions being undertaken?

那麼問題是這種情況會持續多久？當然，因為可能有更新的設施，可以維持更長時間，但中國也有相當多的小規模產能。我確定，經過多少、12、18 個月的出血，甚至 24 個月的出血，這種情況會持續多久，直到我們看到採取一些行動？

But nevertheless, despite the fact, I mean, the China supply and demand is not where it should be, you see these exports from the United States into other parts of the world reaching breaking records. So the material finds its way then into other markets, markets where maybe also, again, older facilities, not backward integrated, not flexible, fully dependent on naphtha, these are the facilities, of course, that have been very difficult to be competitive.

但儘管如此，我的意思是，中國的供應和需求並未達到應有的水平，你會看到從美國到世界其他地區的出口達到了破紀錄的水平。因此，這些材料隨後進入了其他市場，這些市場可能還有較舊的設施，不落後集成，不靈活，完全依賴石腦油，當然，這些設施很難具有競爭力。

As a consequence, we continue to believe -- you've seen, I mean, the price increases at the beginning of the year. You saw the 2 rounds of price increases in the United States last year -- at the end of last year. We have these price increases out in the market, more April and May. And there's a very strong case, if you look at everything that is happening, for those price increases, I mean, to stick.

因此，我們仍然相信——我的意思是，你已經看到了年初的價格上漲。去年，去年年底，美國有兩輪物價上漲。市場上的價格上漲，四月和五月的漲幅更大。如果你看看正在發生的一切，有一個非常有力的理由，我的意思是，堅持這些價格上漲。

If I turn to Kim on the second question.

如果我轉向金回答第二個問題。

Second question, I think the easiest way to explain that is it's an optimization. You're going to look at what margin you have on your domestic demand, you're going to look at your incremental cost of production to export, and you're going to make the right optimization across our assets?

第二個問題，我認為最簡單的解釋方法是它是一種最佳化。你要看看你的國內需求有多少利潤，你要看看你的出口生產增量成本，你要對我們的資產進行正確的優化？

Our next question comes from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Josh Spector。

I wanted to ask on the cost side of the equation. So I mean, you continue to make good progress on your Value Enhancement plan. But at the same time, you're investing to stand up a new business in CLCS. I think, correct me if I'm wrong, that's probably a big driver about why your SG&A continues to increase, up about $100 million over the last couple of years. So I'm wondering if you could kind of break the pieces apart in terms of the benefit from VEP you see yourself getting, the costs that you're adding for that new business maybe over the next couple of years that don't have the EBITDA to match that at this point, and maybe inflation, so we can maybe better model over '24 and '25 what the actual drop-through was of the savings versus cost versus new businesses.

我想問一下等式的成本方面。所以我的意思是，您的價值提升計劃繼續取得良好進展。但同時，您正在投資在 CLCS 中開展新業務。我認為，如果我錯了，請糾正我，這可能是您的 SG&A 持續增加的重要推動因素，在過去幾年中增加了約 1 億美元。因此，我想知道您是否可以根據您認為自己從 VEP 中獲得的收益、您可能在未來幾年內為新業務增加的成本（沒有EBITDA 與此時的情況相匹配，也許還有通貨膨脹，因此我們也許可以更好地對24 年和25 年節省與成本與新業務的實際下降情況進行建模。

Let me go first, and then I hand over to Michael. Of course, I mean, we continue to be very pleased with our VEP program, the acceptance in the organization, the value that we have been able to create last year that we continue to see being created this year. We are very well on track, as I said, to reach or exceed our targets on the VEP for this year.

讓我先走，然後我把事情交給麥可。當然，我的意思是，我們仍然對我們的 VEP 計劃、組織的接受度以及去年我們能夠創造的價值感到非常滿意，今年我們將繼續看到這些價值的創造。正如我所說，我們正在順利實現或超過今年 VEP 的目標。

I give you an example, I mean, because last year, mid-cycle margin value creation at the end of the year was slightly above $400 million. Bottom line, with effective margins and effective products being sold, for the year was around, I mean, $300 million. Well, a part of that $300 million, that's how the 3 pillars work, have been reinvested in building up the second pillar, and that is the business unit Circular and Low-Carbon Solutions. Not to complete amounts we have invested, but a substantial amount of that $300 million has been reinvested to build up that pillar and as such also more (technical difficulty).

我舉個例子，我的意思是，因為去年年底的中期利潤價值創造略高於 4 億美元。我的意思是，考慮到有效利潤和銷售有效產品，這一年的底線約為 3 億美元。嗯，這 3 億美元的一部分（這就是三大支柱的運作方式）已被再投資於建造第二支柱，即循環和低碳解決方案業務部門。並不是要完成我們已投資的金額，而是這 3 億美元中的很大一部分已被再投資以建立該支柱以及更多（技術難度）。

That, of course, also leads, remember, we have bought out joint venture partners, we have done a number of bolt-on acquisitions. So of course, with that, of course, you get higher SG&A on your balance sheet. But all that is where it works together, I mean, the pillars in our strategy.

當然，這也導致了，請記住，我們已經收購了合資夥伴，我們已經進行了許多補強收購。當然，有了這個，你的資產負債表上當然會得到更高的SG&A。但我的意思是，所有這些都是我們策略的支柱。

Yes, Josh, and maybe just a few more comments in regards to cost. I think we have a pretty good reputation for operating lean, which we think actually gives us an advantage versus others. When times are good, we actually continue to be disciplined. Quite frankly, in 2023, I think underlying cost control was strong. SG&A as a percent of sales totaled 3.8%, despite revenue and cost headwinds. We also made investments in our footprint when we started up PO/TBA in circularity, as you noted, and VEP, and some capability building across the enterprise. And clearly, inflation was a significant headwind last year.

是的，喬什，也許還有一些關於成本的評論。我認為我們在精實營運方面享有盛譽，我們認為這實際上給了我們相對於其他公司的優勢。當形勢好的時候，我們其實會繼續遵守紀律。坦白說，2023年，我認為潛在的成本控制是很強的。儘管收入和成本有不利因素，SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比仍達 3.8%。正如您所指出的，當我們啟動循環 PO/TBA 和 VEP 以及整個企業的一些能力建設時，我們也對我們的足跡進行了投資。顯然，通貨膨脹是去年的重大阻力。

And as we've moved into 2024, we continue to make some targeted investments, for example, in our CLCS business and our VEP program, where we will invest about $270 million this year. 1/4 of that is OpEx, 3/4 of that is CapEx.

進入 2024 年，我們將繼續進行一些有針對性的投資，例如，我們的 CLCS 業務和 VEP 計劃，今年我們將投資約 2.7 億美元。其中 1/4 是營運支出，3/4 是資本支出。

But again, we're managing well, and driving actions this year both in CapEx and in OpEx. And so I'd say, overall, cost control is strong, and we are making targeted investments, and you can continue to expect us to manage costs well going forward.

但同樣，我們今年管理得很好，並在資本支出和營運支出方面推動了行動。所以我想說，總體而言，成本控制是強而有力的，我們正在進行有針對性的投資，你可以繼續期望我們能夠很好地管理未來的成本。

And our portfolio management, of course, helps with that. I mean, as you know, we're almost, I mean, at the point of closing the divestiture of ethylene oxide and derivatives. And we're almost closed at closing our NATPET joint venture, and that triggers then, of course, also soon after that, a final investment decision to expand with an additional line with newer technology. So these things all work together, is what I wanted to highlight.

當然，我們的投資組合管理對此有所幫助。我的意思是，如你所知，我們幾乎即將完成環氧乙烷及其衍生物的剝離。我們幾乎即將關閉我們的 NATPET 合資企業，當然，在那之後不久，我們就做出了最終投資決定，即用更新的技術擴展一條額外的生產線。所以這些事情都是協同作用的，這就是我想強調的。

Our next question comes from the line of Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

Peter, you obviously mentioned a couple of the joint ventures and you recently did, obviously, the NATPET sort of venture out in Saudi Arabia as well. Would love to hear your latest and greatest thoughts about where you guys stand in terms of potentially maybe consolidating the Sasol joint venture.

彼得，你顯然提到了幾家合資企業，而且你最近顯然也在沙烏地阿拉伯建立了 NATPET 之類的合資企業。我很想聽聽你們對於鞏固沙索合資企業的立場的最新和最偉大的想法。

Thank you, Hassan. Good question. As you alluded to, I mean, in Saudi Arabia, we have lots of activities ongoing, not just with the existing joint ventures, but then, of course, also with the NATPET joint venture and then the next step with the investment.

謝謝你，哈桑。好問題。正如你所提到的，我的意思是，在沙烏地阿拉伯，我們正在進行許多活動，不僅是與現有的合資企業，當然還有 NATPET 合資企業，然後是下一步的投資。

We are happy, and actually, that deal was done before my time, so I'm even super happy, with the fact that we have entered in that joint venture with Sasol. I would say, generally spoken, operation is running well in that joint venture. We're pleased, I mean, with our position that we have in there. And of course, we continue, as we have said multiple times, to always look at opportunities in the marketplace where we can grow and upgrade the core. So we are not focusing now on just one thing, but we are continuing to look at growing and upgrading the core. Having said that, we have multiple times outlined that we will be extremely disciplined in our M&A activities. Michael?

我們很高興，事實上，這筆交易是在我之前完成的，所以我甚至非常高興，因為我們已經與沙索建立了合資企業。我想說，總的來說，該合資企業的營運狀況良好。我的意思是，我們對我們在那裡的地位感到高興。當然，正如我們多次說過的那樣，我們將繼續在市場上尋找可以發展和升級核心的機會。因此，我們現在不僅專注於一件事，而是繼續專注於核心的發展和升級。話雖如此，我們已多次表示，我們將在併購活動中嚴格遵守紀律。麥可？

Yes. And maybe, Hassan, I'd say a couple more things. I think clearly, just looking back upon the last 2 years we've been much more active from a portfolio management perspective, both on bringing things in, but also jettisoning things where there are better owners. But I don't think it's appropriate for us as to comment on a specific transaction?

是的。哈桑，也許我還想再說幾句話。我清楚地認為，回顧過去兩年，我們從投資組合管理的角度變得更加積極，既引入了東西，也放棄了有更好所有者的東西。但我認為我們對具體交易發表評論不合適嗎？

Our next question comes from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自垂直研究合作夥伴的凱文·麥卡錫 (Kevin McCarthy)。

Peter, last March, or March of '23 I should say, you unveiled some financial goals around your CLCS initiatives, $0.5 billion in EBITDA by 2027 en route to $1 billion in 2030. I was wondering if you could speak to your level of confidence in the March toward the first piece of that in 2027. And part of the reason I ask is, it sounds like you may not take a final investment decision on MoReTec in Houston until next year. I'm not sure exactly how long that might take to build out. But maybe you could kind of speak to the timing and ramp of tonnage extending on what you show on Slide 6. How does that 123 kilotons maybe ramp over the next 2 or 3 years towards your medium- and long-term goals?

Peter，去年3 月，或者說23 年3 月，我應該說，您圍繞CLCS 計劃公佈了一些財務目標，到2027 年EBITDA 達到5 億美元，到2030 年達到10 億美元。談談您的信心程度在 2027 年邁向第一部分。我不確定具體需要多長時間才能完成。但也許您可以談談投影片 6 中顯示的時間安排和噸位增量。

Thank you, Kevin, for your very good question. Generally spoken, we continue to be very confident that we can reach what we have said a bit more than 1 year ago on C&LCS, but also on the overall targets that we had put out there, $0.5 billion on C&LCS 2027, and additional profitability. We are making very good progress, I mean, with the entire family. You saw that one particular slide, I mean, doubling the volumes, very good margins that we are generating for the entire family.

謝謝你，凱文，你提出了很好的問題。總的來說，我們仍然非常有信心能夠實現一年多前就 C&LCS 所說的目標，而且也對我們提出的總體目標（2027 年 C&LCS 5 億美元）以及額外盈利能力抱有信心。我的意思是，我們和整個家庭都取得了很好的進展。你看到了一張特別的幻燈片，我的意思是，銷量翻了一番，我們為整個家庭創造了非常好的利潤。

We, as you know, Kevin, some of the parts go faster than other parts. So it's clear that the renew, CirculenRenew family goes faster because we have been in the market since a couple of years with the biowaste based polyolefins. The network that we have build up and continue to build up on the mechanical recycles, remember all the deals, and it's also on the slide that we did in Europe, and then also starting in the United States, is ramping up very fast as we had planned.

正如你所知，凱文，有些部分比其他部分運行得更快。因此，很明顯，可更新的 CirculenRenew 系列的發展速度更快，因為我​​們幾年來一直在使用基於生物廢物的聚烯烴進入市場。我們已經建立並繼續建立的機械回收網絡，記住所有的交易，它也在我們在歐洲所做的幻燈片上，然後也在美國開始，隨著我們的發展，網絡正在快速發展。

And the advanced recycling parts, yes, of course, we have the first investment decision taken for the capacity in the Cologne hub. It's on track. Work is on the go, it's underway. The team is on the ground. We look positively on the time line that we have there, I mean, to reach what we had said starting up by the end of 2025.

還有先進的回收零件，是的，當然，我們對科隆樞紐的產能做出了第一個投資決定。一切步入正軌。工作正在進行中，正在進行中。團隊已在地面上。我們對時間表持正面態度，我的意思是，從 2025 年底開始實現我們所說的目標。

And we are now looking at, of course, the concepts, as we have alluded to and is in the slides, to double that capacity, bring, I mean, to Houston at the refinery sites, do the necessary work on the upgrading, looking at that from a technical point of view by leveraging upon our hydrotreaters that we have in the refining. So that one, I would say, you're right. I mean final investment decision not this year, but next year, and then it takes time to build.

當然，我們現在正在研究這些概念，正如我們在幻燈片中提到的那樣，將產能加倍，我的意思是，將煉油廠帶到休斯敦，進行必要的升級工作，尋找從技術角度來看，通過利用我們在煉油中擁有的加氫處理裝置。所以我想說，你是對的。我的意思是最終的投資決定不是今年，而是明年，然後需要時間來建立。

But in the meantime, what we are also doing is we are working up -- as, remember, we always said we will be technology agnostic. So we work together with different partners on the advanced recycling side. So as an off-taker of plastic oil, that we can either upgrade or move directly into our steam crackers. So from that perspective, it gives us the possibility to continue to grow with the advanced recycling polyolefins in the marketplace. So I have no indications that we would not be able to reach our targets. We continue to be very confident.

但同時，我們也在做的是我們正在努力——記住，我們總是說我們將與科技無關。因此，我們在先進回收方面與不同的合作夥伴合作。因此，作為塑膠油的承購商，我們可以升級或直接轉移到我們的蒸汽裂解裝置中。因此從這個角度來看，它使我們有可能隨著市場上先進的回收聚烯烴的發展而繼續發展。因此，我沒有任何跡象表明我們將無法實現我們的目標。我們仍然非常有信心。

Ladies and gentlemen, our final question this morning comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

女士們先生們，我們今天早上的最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

Can I just ask on the cash flow going forward, are we done with the working capital build? Or is there probably a little bit more of that to come in the second quarter?

我可以問一下未來的現金流嗎？或者第二季可能會出現更多這樣的情況嗎？

Vincent, it's Michael. Yes. Well, I'd probably answer the question in 2 ways. I think for the second quarter, it should be relatively stable. But I hope things actually get better in the second half when we consume a bit. But that said, I don't expect us to consume anything that's material?

文森特，這是麥可。是的。嗯，我可能會用兩種方式來回答這個問題。我認為第二季度應該會比較穩定。但我希望下半年當我們消耗一點時情況會真正好轉。但話雖如此，我不希望我們消費任何物質的東西？

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Vanacker for any final comments.

謝謝。女士們先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我將把發言權交還給瓦納克先生，徵求最後的意見。

Yes. Thank you, everybody. Very good questions. But of course, I was missing a little bit questions around our propylene oxide business, our Oxyfuels business, and our APS business.

是的。謝謝大家。非常好的問題。但當然，我遺漏了一些有關我們的環氧丙烷業務、富氧燃料業務和 APS 業務的問題。

Now let me highlight that the team is doing a fantastic work in all of these businesses. We're making very good progress, and we're moving, I mean, to driving season, which, as you know, is always good for oxyfuels, I mean, from an oxyfuels point of view. We continue to see early indications that durable goods demand is going up, which is, of course, also good for our leadership position that we have in low-cost and low-carbon footprint propylene oxides.

現在讓我強調一下，該團隊在所有這些業務中都做得非常出色。我們正在取得非常好的進展，我的意思是，我們正在進入駕駛季節，正如你所知，這對富氧燃料總是有利的，我的意思是，從富氧燃料的角度來看。我們繼續看到耐用品需求正在上升的早期跡象，這當然也有利於我們在低成本和低碳足跡環氧丙烷領域的領導地位。

And I'm also very pleased, as I said in the prepared remarks, by seeing how we are on track in the transformation of our APS business. Our win rates, our service level, these are things that we are looking at. And Circulen has seemed or making fantastic progress. So also very pleased with that, despite, of course, certain markets on a global basis, especially in durable goods, not being at the top level yet. So it is very promising when those markets also continue back, I mean, to sustainable growth.

正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我也很高興看到我們的 APS 業務轉型正步入正軌。我們的勝率、我們的服務水平，這些都是我們正在關注的事情。 Circulen 似乎已經取得了巨大的進步。因此，我們對此也非常滿意，當然，儘管全球某些市場，特別是耐用品市場，尚未達到最高水準。因此，當這些市場也繼續恢復永續成長時，這是非常有希望的。

So thank you all for the thoughtful questions. And of course, we look forward to sharing updates over the coming months as we continue to make progress on our long-term strategy. We hope you all have a great weekend. Stay well and stay safe. Thank you.

謝謝大家提出的深思熟慮的問題。當然，隨著我們繼續在長期策略上取得進展，我們期待在未來幾個月分享最新資訊。我們希望大家週末愉快。保持健康並保持安全。謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。