利安德巴塞爾 (LYB) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the LyondellBasell Teleconference. At the request of LyondellBasell, this conference is being recorded for instant replay purposes. Following today's presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. David Kinney, Head of Investor Relations.

您好，歡迎參加利安德巴塞爾電話會議。應利安德巴塞爾公司的要求，本次會議將進行錄影，以便即時重播。今天的報告結束後，我們將進行問答環節。現在我將把會議交給投資者關係主管大衛金尼先生。

Sir, please go ahead.

先生，請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everyone, to today's call. Before we begin the discussion, I would like to point out that a slide presentation accompanies the call and is available on our website at investors.lyondellbasell.com. Today, we will be discussing our third quarter results while making reference to some forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures.

謝謝接線員，歡迎各位參加今天的電話會議。在正式開始討論之前，我想指出，本次電話會議附帶一份幻燈片演示文稿，您可以在我們的網站 investors.lyondellbasell.com 上查看。今天，我們將討論第三季業績，並會提及一些前瞻性陳述和非GAAP財務指標。

We believe the forward-looking statements are based upon reasonable assumptions, and the alternative measures are useful to investors. Nonetheless, the forward-looking statements are subject to significant risk and uncertainty. We encourage you to learn more about the factors that could lead our actual results to differ by reviewing the cautionary statements in the presentation slides in our regulatory filings, which are also available on our Investor Relations website.

我們認為這些前瞻性陳述是基於合理的假設，而替代指標對投資人是有用的。然而，這些前瞻性陳述存在重大風險和不確定性。我們鼓勵您透過查閱我們監管文件中的簡報中的警示性聲明來了解可能導致我們實際結果與預期結果不同的因素，這些文件也可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

Comments made on this call will be in regard to our underlying business results using non-GAAP financial measures, such as EBITDA and earnings per share, excluding identified items. Additional documents on our Investor website provide reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP financial measures, together with other disclosures, including the earnings release and our business results discussion.

本次電話會議中將對我們使用非公認會計準則財務指標（如 EBITDA 和每股盈餘）的基本業務績效進行評論，但不包括已確定的項目。我們投資者網站上的其他文件提供了非GAAP財務指標與GAAP財務指標的調節表，以及其他披露信息，包括盈利報告和我們的業務成果討論。

A recording of this call will be available by telephone beginning at 1 p.m. Eastern Time today until December 1 by calling (877) 660-6853 in the United States and (201) 612-7415 outside the United States. The access code for both numbers is 13746-207. Joining today's call will be Peter Vanacker, LyondellBasell's Chief Executive Officer; our CFO, Agustin Izquierdo; Kim Foley, our Executive Vice President of Global Olefins and Polyolefins; Aaron Ledet, our EVP of Intermediates and Derivatives; and Torkel Rhenman, our EVP of Advanced Polymer Solutions.

從今天下午 1 點（美國東部時間）起至 12 月 1 日，可透過撥打以下電話收聽本次通話的錄音：美國境內撥打 (877) 660-6853，美國境外撥打 (201) 612-7415。這兩個號碼的存取代碼都是 13746-207。今天參加電話會議的有：利安德巴塞爾執行長 Peter Vanacker；財務長 Agustin Izquierdo；全球烯烴和聚烯烴執行副總裁 Kim Foley；中間體和衍生物執行副總裁 Aaron Ledet；以及先進聚合物解決方案執行副總裁 Torkel Rhenman。

With that being said, I would now like to turn the call over to Peter.

接下來，我想把電話交給彼得。

Thank you, Dave, and thank you all for joining today's call as we discuss our third quarter results. The LYB team is making excellent progress on managing the cycle with meaningful progress from our cash improvement plan, which contributed to our very high cash conversion of 135% in the third quarter. We're well on our way to delivering on our $600 million target by year-end. And our actions are expected to increase cash flow by at least $1.1 billion by the end of 2026.

謝謝戴夫，也感謝各位參加今天的電話會議，我們今天將討論第三季業績。LYB 團隊在周期管理方面取得了卓越的進展，我們的現金改善計劃也取得了實質進展，這使得我們在第三季度實現了 135% 的極高現金轉換率。我們正朝著年底前實現 6 億美元的目標穩步前進。預計到 2026 年底，我們的措施將使現金流增加至少 11 億美元。

Let us first take a moment to review LYB safety performance with Slide number 3. Safe operations are fundamental to our core values and essential for our future success. This is demonstrated by our September year-to-date total recordable incident rate of 0.12 which is even better than last year's top decile results. Safety performance improved year-on-year, and this sustained trend is a direct reflection of the dedication and commitment of all our employees and contractors to operational excellence.

讓我們先花點時間透過投影片 3 來回顧 LYB 的安全效能。安全營運是我們核心價值的基石，也是我們未來成功的關鍵。9 月至今的總可記錄事故發生率為 0.12，證明了這一點，甚至比去年排名前 10% 的結果還要好。安全績效逐年提高，這一持續趨勢直接反映了我們所有員工和承包商對卓越營運的奉獻和承諾。

Please turn to Slide 4 as we discuss our financial performance. During the third quarter, cash generation improved as LYB continued to navigate the cycle. Earnings were $1.01 per share with EBITDA of $835 million and $983 million of cash from operating activities. We returned $443 million to shareholders in the form of dividends.

請翻到第 4 頁，我們將討論我們的財務表現。第三季度，隨著 LYB 繼續應對經濟週期，現金流狀況有所改善。每股收益為 1.01 美元，EBITDA 為 8.35 億美元，經營活動產生的現金為 9.83 億美元。我們以股息的形式向股東返還了 4.43 億美元。

Turning to Slide 5. Let's discuss some encouraging trends developing in polyethylene markets. In recent months, PE demand has started to improve following the multiyear post COVID downturn in both North America and Europe, 2025 domestic demand for polyethylene is the strongest we have seen since the start of the downturn in the third quarter of 2022. Despite the recent volatility in U.S exports, caused by shifting trade and tariff policies, third quarter year-to-date North American demand is up by 2.5% relative to 2024.

翻到第5張投影片。讓我們來探討一下聚乙烯市場正在出現的一些令人鼓舞的趨勢。近幾個月來，北美和歐洲在經歷了多年的新冠疫情后經濟低迷之後，聚乙烯需求開始好轉。 2025 年，國內對聚乙烯的需求是自 2022 年第三季經濟低迷開始以來我們所看到的最強勁的。儘管受貿易和關稅政策變化的影響，美國出口近期出現波動，但今年第三季北美需求仍比 2024 年同期成長 2.5%。

After a prolonged weakness following the onset of the Russia Ukraine conflict, August year-to-date polyethylene volumes in Europe are up approximately 3% compared to the same period last year.

在俄烏衝突爆發後經歷了長期的疲軟之後，歐洲 8 月聚乙烯銷量較去年同期成長了約 3%。

Consumer packaging demand remains resilient, reflecting the essential role of polyolefins and everyday applications despite changing consumer behavior. At the same time, investments in durable goods to support trends in energy, digitalization and infrastructure are also driving demand growth. Renewable energy and data center construction requires durable, high-performance polymers for wire and cable jacketing, conduits and water piping. Electric vehicles use approximately 10% more plastic by weight than vehicles powered by internal combustion engines.

儘管消費者行為發生了變化，但消費包裝需求仍保持韌性，反映出聚烯烴及其在日常應用中的重要角色。同時，為支持能源、數位化和基礎設施發展趨勢而對耐用品進行的投資也在推動需求成長。再生能源和資料中心建設需要耐用、高性能的聚合物來製造電線電纜護套、導管和水管。電動車使用的塑膠重量比內燃機汽車約多10%。

LYB's broad portfolio of innovative polymers position us well to meet the stringent performance and sustainability benchmarks required to address these attractive and growing market opportunities. Let me be clear, these are not yet green shoots for our financial results. Markets will need to absorb new capacity and operating rates will need further improvement before suppliers develop meaningful pricing power. But these inflections in demand trends are encouraging and could be the early indicators of our market recovery.

LYB 擁有廣泛的創新聚合物產品組合，這使我們能夠很好地滿足應對這些極具吸引力且不斷增長的市場機會所需的嚴格性能和永續性標準。我要明確指出，這些都不是我們財務表現好轉的跡象。市場需要消化新增產能，營運率也​​需要進一步提高，供應商才能獲得有意義的定價權。但這些需求趨勢的轉變令人鼓舞，可能是我們市場復甦的早期跡象。

With this in mind, let's turn to Slide 6 and take a longer view on demand growth for polyethylene and polypropylene. As shown in the top chart, global polyethylene demand has consistently grown at GDP plus rates of over 3% for at least 35 years. Unlike other markets like automobiles, our housing polyethylene markets have exhibited consistent growth. Even after recessionary downturns and pandemic-related spikes, polyethylene demand quickly returns to its long-term trajectory. This reflects the power of the underlying trends driving global consumption, population growth, deurbanization and a rising middle class.

考慮到這一點，讓我們翻到第 6 張投影片，從更長遠的角度來看聚乙烯和聚丙烯的需求成長。如上圖所示，全球聚乙烯需求至少在過去 35 年中一直以 GDP 加 3% 以上的成長持續成長。與其他市場（如汽車市場）不同，我們的房屋聚乙烯市場一直保持持續成長。即使經歷了經濟衰退和疫情相關的需求激增，聚乙烯需求也能迅速恢復到其長期發展軌跡。這反映了推動全球消費、人口成長、城市化放緩以及中產階級崛起等潛在趨勢的力量。

Some observers questions whether the flatter growth rate seen in 2022 and 2023 after the 2021 spike were reflective of a secular change. But as you can see, in 2025, we are reverting to long-term global historic growth rates of over 3%. Most consultants are predicting continued growth through at least 2035 with some shifts in share of production from fossil-based feeds towards circular feedstocks.

一些觀察家質疑，2021 年的激增之後，2022 年和 2023 年出現的較為平緩的成長率是否反映了長期變化。但正如你所看到的，到 2025 年，我們將恢復到長期全球歷史成長率 3% 以上。大多數顧問顧問預測，至少到 2035 年，經濟成長將持續，生產份額將從化石基原料轉向循環原料。

Looking at the bottom chart, mature markets such as North America and Europe, leads in per capita consumption aligned with established demand patterns. Meanwhile, emerging regions, such as India and Africa, provides significant long-term growth opportunities as living standards improve in these regions. China continues to demonstrate strong volume growth, supported by its extensive manufacturing base and industrial activity. In contrast, South America reflects comparatively lower consumption, which can attribute it to a smaller manufacturing footprint and lower industrial intensity relative to other regions.

從底部圖表可以看出，北美和歐洲等成熟市場的人均消費量領先，這與既定的需求模式相符。同時，隨著印度和非洲等新興地區生活水準的提高，這些地區蘊藏著巨大的長期成長機會。由於龐大的製造業基礎和活躍的工業活動，中國持續保持強勁的銷售成長動能。相較之下，南美洲的消費水準相對較低，這可能是由於其製造業規模較小，工業強度低於其他地區。

These trends reinforce the importance of regional dynamics, shaping the growth of polyolefins in the global market. While mature markets remain critical for stability, demand growth within these regions will be increasingly driven by infrastructure developments. Electrification, EV mobility, home care and pharma, while emerging economies will drive meaningful volume growth. Importantly, this demand growth is not negatively impacted by circularity. In fact, we are seeing growth shifting towards innovation, efficiency and circularity in these markets.

這些趨勢凸顯了區域動態的重要性，塑造了聚烯烴在全球市場的成長。雖然成熟市場對穩定仍然至關重要，但這些地區的需求成長將越來越受到基礎設施建設的驅動。電氣化、電動車出行、家庭護理和製藥業，以及新興經濟體，將推動銷量顯著成長。重要的是，這種需求成長並未受到循環經濟的負面影響。事實上，我們看到這些市場的成長正向創新、效率和循環經濟方向轉變。

LYB continues to lead in sustainable solutions by investing in innovative feedstock sourcing, positioning us to capture value across diverse markets as we advance our strategy.

LYB 透過投資創新的原料採購，持續引領永續解決方案的發展，這使我們能夠在推動策略的過程中，在多元化的市場中獲取價值。

On Slide 7, let's shift to the supply side and discuss how capacity rationalization trends are accelerating and reshaping the global ethylene supply landscape. As seen on the chart to the left, announced and anticipated closures and idling from 2020 through 2028, add up to more than 21 million tonnes of ethylene capacity representing roughly 10% of global supply. Asia is leading the way with recent government announcements highlighting the magnitude of this trend. South Korea is targeting closures of up to 25%, while Japan recently announced closures of 1.5 million tonnes. China is also a critical driver for global rationalization.

在第 7 張投影片中，讓我們轉向供應方面，討論產能合理化趨勢如何加速並重塑全球乙烯供應格局。從左側圖表可以看出，2020 年至 2028 年已宣布和預計關閉和閒置的乙烯產能加起來超過 2,100 萬噸，約佔全球供應量的 10%。亞洲正引領這一趨勢，各國政府近期發布的公告凸顯了這一趨勢的規模。韓國的目標是關閉高達 25% 的工廠，而日本最近宣布關閉 150 萬噸工廠。中國也是全球理性化過程中的關鍵驅動力。

With high costs for feedstocks, much of the Chinese petrochemical industry is on the wrong end of the cost curve. China's anti-involution measures core focused on reducing uncompetitive capacity and approvals for new facilities are facing increased scrutiny.

由於原料成本高昂，中國石化產業在很大程度上處於成本曲線的不利位置。中國的反產業倒退措施的核心是減少不具競爭力的產能，對新設施的批准也面臨越來越嚴格的審查。

In Europe, regulatory burdens, persistently high operating costs and weak margins are driving massive reductions in petrochemical capacity. Announced rationalizations total approximately 20% of regional capacity and we expect more announcements will follow. The domino effect of these rationalizations is leading to an acceleration. Smaller petrochemical clusters are finding that the economics for cogeneration or industrial gas partners no longer work when a few assets are shuttered in smaller industrial parks. About 30% of our global closures have been announced in just the past 12 months, underscoring the speed and magnitude of this shift.

在歐洲，監管負擔、持續高企的營運成本和微薄的利潤率正在推動石化產能大幅下降。已公佈的合理化措施總計約佔區域產能的 20%，我們預計後續將有更多公告發布。這些合理化解釋的骨牌效應正在加速發展。規模較小的石化產業群發現，當小型工業園區中的一些資產關閉時，與熱電聯產或工業氣體合作夥伴合作的經濟效益不再可行。在過去 12 個月中，我們宣布關閉了全球約 30% 的工廠，凸顯了這項轉變的速度和規模。

We're confident that these closures will help to partially offset the overhang from the substantial capacity additions underway in China.

我們相信，這些工廠的關閉將有助於部分抵銷中國正在進行的大規模產能擴張所帶來的產能過剩問題。

At LYB, we're leveraging the market trends that reinforce our strategy. We're growing our presence in cost-advantaged regions, upgrading our challenged positions and leveraging our technology to ensure a strong presence in attractive markets. We're also cultivating deep partnerships with governments and regulators to ensure a fair trade environment and working towards smart policies, especially in Europe that will provide critical support for our industry.

在 LYB，我們正在利用市場趨勢來強化我們的策略。我們正在擴大在成本優勢地區的業務，提升我們在弱勢領域的地位，並利用我們的技術來確保在有吸引力的市場中擁有強大的影響力。我們也在與各國政府和監管機構建立深厚的合作關係，以確保公平的貿易環境，並努力製定明智的政策，尤其是在歐洲，這將為我們的行業提供關鍵的支持。

Now with that, I will turn it over to Agustin to discuss capital allocation and the progress on our cash improvement plan.

現在，我將把發言權交給奧古斯丁，讓他討論資本配置和現金改善計畫的進展。

Thank you, Peter, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin with Slide 8 and review the details of our third quarter capital allocation. As Peter mentioned, we generated $983 million of cash from operating activities, an improvement of over 2.5 times relative to the prior quarter. During the quarter, we returned $443 million through dividends while funding $406 million of capital investment. Our team remains focused and committed to balanced and disciplined capital allocation as we navigate the cycle.

謝謝你，彼得，大家早安。讓我們從第 8 張投影片開始，回顧一下我們第三季的資本配置細節。正如彼得所提到的，我們從經營活動中產生了 9.83 億美元的現金，比上一季成長了 2.5 倍以上。本季度，我們透過股息返還了 4.43 億美元，同時為 4.06 億美元的資本投資提供了資金。在經濟週期中，我們的團隊始終專注於平衡和嚴謹的資本配置。

Our investment-grade balance sheet remains our priority while we invest in safe and reliable operations and work to preserve shareholder returns. We continue to advance our strategic initiatives to build a stronger and more resilient LYB.

我們始終將保持投資等級資產負債表作為首要任務，同時投資於安全可靠的運營，努力維護股東回報。我們將繼續推動策略舉措，以打造更強大、更具韌性的LYB。

Today, we are announcing a further reduction in our 2026 capital expenditures to $1.2 billion. We will continue to work to complete our MoReTec 1 chemical recycling facility in Germany as we work to optimize our 2026 spending on maintenance. We are continuing to make good progress on the value enhancement program, which remains on track to exceed our target for 2025. Similarly, our cash improvement plan is on track to deliver our $600 million target of incremental cash flow. Year-to-date, we have achieved $150 million in fixed cost reductions.

今天，我們宣布將 2026 年的資本支出進一步削減至 12 億美元。我們將繼續努力完成我們在德國的 MoReTec 1 化學回收設施的建設，同時優化我們在 2026 年的維護支出。我們在價值提升計劃方面繼續取得良好進展，該計劃仍有望超過我們 2025 年的目標。同樣，我們的現金改善計畫也正按計畫推進，預計將實現 6 億美元的增量現金流目標。今年迄今為止，我們已實現固定成本削減 1.5 億美元。

I will review the progress on our cash improvement plan in more depth on the next slide. We are taking clear actions to ensure that we can continue to successfully navigate the cycle with a commitment to our investment-grade credit rating as the foundation of our disciplined capital allocation framework.

我將在下一張投影片中更深入地回顧我們的現金改善計劃的進展。我們正在採取明確的行動，以確保我們能夠繼續成功應對經濟週期，並將投資等級信用評級作為我們嚴謹的資本配置框架的基礎。

Please turn to Slide 9, and let's continue by reviewing the progress on our 2025 cash improvement plan. For this year, we are targeting $600 million of improvement through a combination of working capital, fixed costs and CapEx reductions as part of our total commitment to deliver $1.1 billion of improvement by the end of next year. We are making progress on working capital reductions through our traditional levers of managing inventories and payables. With this in mind, we are on track to meet our target of realizing approximately $200 million of working capital reductions.

請翻到第 9 頁，讓我們繼續回顧一下 2025 年現金改善計畫的進展。今年，我們的目標是透過減少營運資金、固定成本和資本支出，實現 6 億美元的改進，這是我們在明年年底實現 11 億美元改進目標的一部分。我們正透過管理庫存和應付帳款等傳統手段，在減少營運資金方面取得進展。基於此，我們可望實現減少約 2 億美元營運資金的目標。

As you all know, LYB has historically led the industry with a low-cost operating model. Nevertheless, we have identified further opportunities to streamline our operations and are on track to exceed our $200 million fixed cost reduction target by the end of 2025 and with year-to-date fixed cost reductions at approximately $150 million relative to our 2025 plan. And from a CapEx reduction standpoint, we are making progress to reduce spending on an accrued basis, but these reductions are impacted by timing of payments with cash realization currently trailing. We continue to prioritize safe and reliable operations while making progress on MoReTec 1 and delaying construction of Flex-2 and MoReTec 2 until we see market conditions improve. Together with working capital and fixed cost initiatives, these actions position us to deliver on our target to achieve $600 million of incremental cash flow in 2025.

眾所周知，LYB 一直以來都以低成本的營運模式引領著產業發展。儘管如此，我們已經發現了進一步簡化營運的機會，並預計在 2025 年底前實現 2 億美元的固定成本削減目標，而截至目前，與 2025 年計劃相比，固定成本已削減約 1.5 億美元。從減少資本支出的角度來看，我們在按應計基礎減少支出方面取得了進展，但這些減少受到付款時間的影響，目前現金實現滯後。我們將繼續優先考慮安全可靠的運營，同時推進 MoReTec 1 的建設，並將 Flex-2 和 MoReTec 2 的建設推遲到市場條件改善之後。結合營運資金和固定成本的舉措，這些行動使我們能夠實現 2025 年增加 6 億美元現金流的目標。

Now please turn to Slide 10 as we outline our cash generation. Over the past year, LyondellBasell generated $2.7 billion of cash from operating activities. Our team converted EBITDA into cash at a rate of 99% over the past 12 months and 135% during the third quarter, well above our long-term target of 80%. In the third quarter, we were able to maintain robust shareholder returns with dividends and share repurchases totaling $2 billion over the last 12 months. Our cash balance increased during the third quarter to end at $1.8 billion.

現在請翻到第 10 頁，我們將概述我們的現金流狀況。過去一年，利安德巴塞爾透過經營活動產生了 27 億美元的現金。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們的團隊將 EBITDA 轉化為現金的比例為 99%，第三季更是達到了 135%，遠高於我們 80% 的長期目標。第三季度，我們透過過去 12 個月累積 20 億美元的股息和股票回購，維持了強勁的股東回報。第三季末，我們的現金餘額增加至 18 億美元。

We will continue to take proactive steps to protect our investment-grade balance sheet as we navigate the cycle.

我們將繼續採取積極措施，在經濟週期中保護我們投資等級的資產負債表。

Now let's turn to Slide 11, and I'll provide a brief overview of our segment results. Our business portfolio generated $835 million of EBITDA during the third quarter. Profitability in Olefins and Polyolefins Americas improved with lower cost of ethylene due to co-product contributions coupled with less downtime following the successful completion of turnarounds at our Channelview complex in the second quarter. In Intermediates & Derivatives, improvements in oxyfuel margins were partially offset by planned maintenance at our La Porte, Texas acetyls facility and the normalization of unusually high second quarter styrene margins. In technology, subdued licensing activity impacted third quarter profitability, and all segments benefited from our progress on fixed cost reductions.

現在讓我們來看看第 11 張投影片，我將簡要概述我們的細分市場結果。第三季度，我們的業務組合創造了 8.35 億美元的 EBITDA。由於副產品貢獻以及我們 Channelview 工廠在第二季度成功完成檢修後停機時間減少，美洲烯烴和聚烯烴業務的盈利能力有所提高，乙烯成本降低。在中間體和衍生物方面，氧燃料利潤率的提高部分被我們在德克薩斯州拉波特乙醯基裝置的計劃維護以及異常高的第二季度苯乙烯利潤率的正常化所抵消。在科技方面，授權活動的低迷影響了第三季的獲利能力，但所有業務部門都受益於我們在降低固定成本方面取得的進展。

Third quarter results included identified items of $1.2 billion, net of tax, primarily associated with asset write-downs in our O&P EAI and Advanced Polymer Solutions segments. Related to the prolonged downturn in the European petrochemical and global automotive industries. We have also updated the guidance for our 2025 full year effective tax rate to negative 13% primarily due to these noncash impairments recognized during the third quarter. In addition, our cash tax rate is expected to be substantially lower than our prior guidance. Please refer to our updated 2025 modeling guidance in the appendix to this slide deck describing impacts from planned maintenance and other useful financial metrics.

第三季業績包括已確定的 12 億美元項目（扣除稅款後），主要與我們的 O&P EAI 和先進聚合物解決方案部門的資產減損有關。與歐洲石化產業和全球汽車產業的長期低迷有關。我們也更新了 2025 年全年實際稅率的預期，調整為負 13%，這主要是由於第三季確認了這些非現金減損。此外，我們的現金稅率預計將遠低於我們先前的預期。請參閱本投影片附錄中更新的 2025 年建模指南，其中描述了計畫維護的影響和其他有用的財務指標。

With that, I will turn the call over to Kim.

接下來，我將把電話交給金。

Thank you, Agustin. Let's begin the segment discussions on Slide 12 with the performance of the Olefins and Polyolefins Americas segment. During the third quarter, O&P Americas EBITDA was $428 million, an improvement of 35% quarter-on-quarter. Seasonally higher demand and increased utilization following our Channelview turnarounds supported sequential growth. For third quarter operating rates for the segment was approximately 85%, with our crackers running at approximately 95%.

謝謝你，奧古斯丁。讓我們從第 12 張投影片開始，討論美洲烯烴和聚烯烴板塊的表現。第三季度，O&P Americas 的 EBITDA 為 4.28 億美元，季增 35%。季節性需求增加以及 Channelview 專案改造後利用率提高，推動了環比成長。第三季該部門的開工率約為 85%，其中裂解裝置的開工率約為 95%。

During the third quarter, North American olefins industry operating rates remained high, driven by -- 3% quarter-over-quarter supported by the restart of the Channelview assets.

第三季度，北美烯烴產業的開工率保持高位，環比成長 3%，這得益於 Channelview 資產的重啟。

During 2025, operations of our Hyperzone polyethylene plant in La Porte have significantly improved with more uptime higher rates and increased on-spec production of the full range of premium products. We will perform some modifications at the plant in early 2026 that should allow our Hyperzone PE technology to reliably deliver high-quality premium products with performance advantages that our customers desire. This is part of our portfolio transformation towards more specialized applications.

2025 年，我們在拉波特的 Hyperzone 聚乙烯工廠的運作情況顯著改善，正常運作時間更長，生產力更高，全系列優質產品的合格率也更高。我們將於 2026 年初對工廠進行一些改造，這將使我們的 Hyperzone PE 技術能夠可靠地提供客戶所期望的具有性能優勢的高品質優質產品。這是我們產品組合轉型為更專業化應用的一部分。

In the fourth quarter, we expect typical seasonal trends of softer demand and customers' desire to minimize year-end inventories will pressure sales volumes. Nonetheless, producers are also seeking to minimize inventories and reductions in the industry operating rate are providing evidence of adjustments to market conditions. The balance of supply/demand will ultimately determine the success of our price increase initiatives. Sequentially higher natural gas and ethane prices are likely to result in somewhat higher costs during the fourth quarter, but we expect that this will be partially offset by our fixed cost reduction initiatives. Despite volatile oil prices, the favorable oil to gas ratio continues to provide an advantage to North American ethylene producers relative to oil-based production in other parts of the world.

第四季度，我們預期典型的季節性趨勢，即需求疲軟和客戶希望在年底前盡量減少庫存，將對銷售量構成壓力。儘管如此，生產商也在努力減少庫存，行業運營率的下降表明市場狀況正在調整。供需平衡最終將決定我們提價措施的成敗。天然氣和乙烷價格環比上漲可能會導致第四季度成本略有上升，但我們預計這將被我們的固定成本削減措施部分抵消。儘管油價波動，但有利的油氣比仍然為北美乙烯生產商相對於世界其他地區的石油基乙烯生產提供了優勢。

We remain focused on aligning our operating rates to manage working capital while serving domestic and export market demand. We expect to reduce our operating rates by 5% and are targeting 80% utilization across the segment during the fourth quarter.

我們將繼續專注於調整營運效率，以管理營運資金，同時滿足國內和出口市場需求。我們預計第四季度營運率將降低 5%，目標是在該業務板塊實現 80% 的利用率。

Please turn to Slide 13 as we review the results of the Olefins and Polyolefins Europe, Asia and International segment. During the third quarter, the segment generated EBITDA of $48 million. Altogether, EBITDA for both O&P segments improved by 31%. In EAI, segment EBITDA remained relatively flat as operational improvements helped offset margin pressures in polymers due to weak demand. Despite fewer operational constraints on some of our own assets, polymer margins declined due to increased competition from imports originating in cost-advantaged regions such as North America and the Middle East.

請翻到第 13 頁，我們將回顧歐洲、亞洲和國際烯烴及聚烯烴業務的表現。第三季度，該業務類股的 EBITDA 為 4,800 萬美元。O&P 兩個業務部門的 EBITDA 整體成長了 31%。在 EAI 業務中，由於營運改善幫助抵消了聚合物需求疲軟帶來的利潤率壓力，該業務部門的 EBITDA 保持相對穩定。儘管我們自身部分資產的營運限制較少，但由於來自北美和中東等成本優勢地區的進口產品競爭加劇，聚合物利潤率下降。

We continue to advance our strategic objectives in the regions as we progress on the proposed sale of the select European assets.

隨著我們推動擬議的歐洲部分資產出售計劃，我們將繼續推進我們在各地區的戰略目標。

As part of this transaction, I am proud to share that we have achieved a major milestone with the signing of the sales and purchase agreement. This marks another step towards closing the transaction, which we expect to occur in the first half of 2026. The transaction is another example of our strategy to grow and upgrade the core through optimizing our portfolio for long-term value creation. Additionally, as part of our second strategic pillar to build a profitable CLCS business, we are making good progress on the construction of our MoReTec 1 facility in Wesseling, Germany. Major equipment deliveries are underway and structural steel is being installed to position us for a successful ramp-up in 2027.

作為交易的一部分，我很自豪地宣布，隨著買賣協議的簽署，我們已經取得了重大里程碑式的進展。這標誌著距離完成交易又近了一步，我們預計將在 2026 年上半年完成交易。此次交易再次體現了我們透過優化投資組合以實現長期價值創造，從而發展和升級核心業務的策略。此外，作為我們建立盈利的 CLCS 業務的第二個戰略支柱的一部分，我們在德國韋瑟林建設 MoReTec 1 工廠方面取得了良好進展。主要設備交付正在進行中，結構鋼正在安裝，這為我們在 2027 年成功實現產能提升奠定了基礎。

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect similar seasonal softness in Europe. Rising feedstock costs are expected to add further pressure on margins. In response, we are taking steps to significantly reduce fourth quarter production. We intend to idle the larger of the 2 crackers in Wesseling, Germany, OM6, for at least 40 days during November and December. As such, we are targeting operating rates for approximately 60% across the segment during the fourth quarter.

展望第四季度，我們預期歐洲市場也會出現類似的季節性疲軟。原料成本上漲預計將進一步擠壓利潤空間。為此，我們正在採取措施大幅削減第四季的產量。我們計劃在 11 月和 12 月期間，讓位於德國韋瑟林的兩套裂解裝置中較大的一套（OM6）至少停產 40 天。因此，我們的目標是在第四季度實現該業務板塊約 60% 的營運率。

With that, I will turn the call over to Aaron.

接下來，我將把電話交給亞倫。

Thank you, Kim. Please turn to Slide 14 as we look at the Intermediates and Derivatives segment. In the third quarter, segment EBITDA sequentially increased to $303 million as improved margins for Oxyfuels were partially offset by planned maintenance downtime at our La Porte acetyls assets. Oxyfuels margins were supported by planned and unplanned outages that reduced the supply of high octane gasoline blend stocks in the Atlantic Basin. Our Bayport facility had a 3-week unplanned outage related to a third-party supplier, impacting EBITDA by approximately $15 million, while other notable outages included competitors along the Gulf Coast and in Western Africa.

謝謝你，金。請翻到第 14 頁，我們來看中間體和衍生性商品部分。第三季度，由於氧燃料業務利潤率的提高被拉波特乙醯基資產的計畫維護停機部分抵消，該業務部門的 EBITDA 環比增長至 3.03 億美元。大西洋盆地高辛烷值汽油調合原料的供應減少，計畫內和計畫外停產支撐了富氧燃料的利潤率。我們的 Bayport 工廠因第三方供應商的原因發生了 3 週的計劃外停產，導致 EBITDA 損失約 1500 萬美元，而其他值得注意的停產事件包括墨西哥灣沿岸和西非的競爭對手。

As a result of our downtime, LYB operating rates across the segment fell 5 percentage points short of our goal of 80% rates for the third quarter. Styrene margins normalized following second quarter supply disruptions across the industry. In September, we began a planned turnaround of our acetyls assets that will continue into the fourth quarter. The turnaround will support the first steps of our catalyst conversion initiative aimed at improving margins and productivity while reducing our reliance on costly precious metals. As we navigate the cycle, our focus on operational excellence continues to deliver results.

由於停機時間，LYB 在該業務板塊的第三季度營運率比我們設定的 80% 的目標低了 5 個百分點。在第二季整個產業供應中斷之後，苯乙烯利潤率恢復正常。9 月份，我們開始了對乙醯基資產的計劃性調整，該計劃將持續到第四季度。此次扭虧為盈將支持我們催化劑轉化計畫的第一步，該計畫旨在提高利潤率和生產率，同時減少我們對昂貴貴金屬的依賴。在應對週期性變化的過程中，我們對卓越營運的關注持續帶來成果。

In addition to executing on the La Porte turnaround, we recently achieved a milestone with our Channelview PO/TBA facility exceeding benchmark production rates during the quarter, reflecting focused execution and reliability across the site. Moving into the fourth quarter, we expect oxyfuels margins to moderate as typical year-end trends take hold in both gasoline and butane prices, although perhaps not as pronounced as in previous years. As part of our work to manage inventories, we will idle one of our PO/SM units in Channelview at the beginning of November for approximately 40 days. With this additional downtime, we expect to operate our I&D assets at a weighted average rate of approximately 75% during the fourth quarter.

除了成功完成 La Porte 工廠的改造之外，我們最近還取得了里程碑式的成就，Channelview PO/TBA 工廠在本季度超過了基準生產率，這反映了整個工廠專注的執行力和可靠性。進入第四季度，我們預計隨著汽油和丁烷價格典型的年末趨勢逐漸顯現，含氧燃料利潤率將有所緩和，儘管可能不如往年那麼明顯。作為庫存管理工作的一部分，我們將於 11 月初將 Channelview 的一個 PO/SM 單元閒置約 40 天。由於額外的停機時間，我們預計第四季度我們的 I&D 資產的加權平均運行率約為 75%。

With that, I will turn the call over to Torkel.

接下來，我將把電話交給托克爾。

Thank you, Aaron. Please turn to Slide 15 as we review results for the Advanced Polymer Solutions segment. Third quarter EBITDA was $47 million as our cost discipline supported margin improvement to overcome headwinds in automotive markets. Global automotive production volumes declined as OEMs experienced typical downtime in the third quarter, and our volumes slightly declined due to lower demand from customers in the construction and electronics industries. EBITDA for the first 9 months of 2025 exceeded full year results for 2023 or 2024 clearly demonstrating the excellent progress the APS team is making to transform the business despite the challenging market environment.

謝謝你，亞倫。請翻到第 15 頁，我們將回顧先進聚合物解決方案領域的表現。第三季 EBITDA 為 4,700 萬美元，這得益於我們的成本控制措施，從而提高了利潤率，克服了汽車市場的不利因素。由於汽車製造商在第三季度經歷了典型的停產期，全球汽車產量有所下降；同時，由於建築和電子行業客戶的需求下降，我們的產量也略有下降。2025 年前 9 個月的 EBITDA 超過了 2023 年或 2024 年全年業績，這清楚地表明，儘管市場環境充滿挑戰，APS 團隊在業務轉型方面取得了卓越的進展。

Looking ahead, we expect near-term demand to remain soft across key sectors and regions. Pricing pressures are partially offsetting the benefits of fixed cost reductions achieved through our cash improvement plan. The slightly challenging market backdrop, we remain laser focused in our work to transform our APS segment to a customer-centric growth business. With a 75% improvement in our Net Promoter Score with customers since 2023 and having been recognized with supplier excellence awards by customers like Toyota, Nissan and Stellantis amongst others, we continue to increase our growth funnel and improve our win rates to gain new project qualifications. We are proactively managing the business portfolio and remain confident that the work we are doing will profitably transform the APS business and enable us to achieve our long-term goals.

展望未來，我們預期近期主要產業和地區的需求將保持疲軟。價格壓力在一定程度上抵消了我們透過現金改善計畫實現的固定成本降低所帶來的收益。儘管市場環境略有挑戰性，但我們仍將全力以赴，致力於將我們的APS業務轉型為以客戶為中心的成長型業務。自 2023 年以來，我們的客戶淨推薦值提高了 75%，並獲得了豐田、日產和 Stellantis 等客戶的供應商卓越獎，我們將繼續擴大成長管道，提高中標率，以獲得新的專案資格。我們正在積極管理業務組合，並堅信我們正在進行的工作將使 APS 業務實現盈利性轉型，並使我們能夠實現長期目標。

With that, I will return the call to Peter.

就這樣，我會回撥給彼得的電話。

Thank you, Torkel. Please turn to Slide 16, and I will discuss the results for the Technology segment on behalf of Jim Seward. Third quarter EBITDA of $15 million was lower than the guidance we provided during our second quarter call. Licensing profitability decreased as revenues declined and market dynamics remain challenging with very low licensing activity and lower catalyst volumes. We see licensing activity has dropped nearly 2/3 since its cyclical peak in 2018, with current levels comparable to the lows seen in the early 2000s.

謝謝你，托克爾。請翻到第 16 頁投影片，我將代表 Jim Seward 討論技術部分的結果。第三季 EBITDA 為 1500 萬美元，低於我們在第二季財報電話會議上給出的預期。隨著收入下降，授權獲利能力也隨之下降，市場動態依然充滿挑戰，授權活動非常低，催化劑銷售量也較低。我們看到，自 2018 年的周期性高峰以來，許可活動已下降了近 2/3，目前的水平與 2000 年代初的低點相當。

Underscoring the significant slowdown of investments in global petrochemical capacity. In contrast, margins for our catalyst increased on sales mix improvements. . In the fourth quarter, we expect improved profitability as previously sold licenses achieved revenue milestones. Additionally, catalyst demand is expected to improve from the unusually low level seen in the third quarter.

凸顯全球石化產能投資大幅放緩。相較之下，由於銷售組合的改善，我們催化劑的利潤率有所提高。。我們預計第四季度獲利能力將有所提高，因為先前售出的許可證已達到收入里程碑。此外，催化劑需求預計將從第三季異常低的水平有所改善。

As a result, we estimate that the fourth quarter Technology segment results will be similar to the first quarter results.

因此，我們預計第四季度科技部門的業績將與第一季的業績類似。

Let me share our views on our key regional and product markets on Slide 17. In line with earlier comments, we expect typical year-end seasonality and our actions to proactively reduce operating rates will create headwinds across most businesses, resulting in lower fourth quarter profitability. In the Americas, exports will continue to play a critical role in balancing markets. Despite a small uptick in fourth quarter ethane costs, the U.S feedstock-based cost advantage is durable and will sustain regional competitiveness despite trade volatility.

在第 17 張投影片中，我將分享我們對主要區域和產品市場的看法。正如先前的評論所述，我們預計典型的年末季節性因素以及我們主動降低營運率的措施將對大多數業務造成不利影響，從而導致第四季度盈利能力下降。在美洲，出口將繼續在平衡市場方面發揮關鍵作用。儘管第四季度乙烷成本略有上漲，但美國原料成本優勢依然持久，即使貿易波動，也能維持區域競爭力。

As global trade flows adjust these structural advantages will continue to allow LYB to capture opportunities from cost advantaged U.S production. Within Europe, fourth quarter demand is particularly weak and polyolefin pricing remains under pressure from increased imports from the Middle East and North America. Nonetheless, circularity initiatives continue to benefit from supportive regional regulations reinforcing consumer preferences for sustainable products in the region. In addition, accelerating capacity rationalizations will help to improve supply and demand balances across the industry.

隨著全球貿易流向的調整，這些結構性優勢將繼續使 LYB 能夠從具有成本優勢的美國生產中抓住機會。在歐洲，第四季需求尤其疲軟，來自中東和北美的進口增加導致聚烯烴價格持續承壓。儘管如此，循環經濟措施仍受益於區域內支持性法規，這些法規強化了該地區消費者對永續產品的偏好。此外，加快產能合理化將有助於改善整個產業的供需平衡。

In Asia, near-term capacity additions will continue to pressure regional supply and demand dynamics. That said, we remain cautiously optimistic as recent rationalization efforts in the region as well as China's anti-involution measures could provide partial offsets over the medium term. Within packaging markets, demand remains good even amid broader economic uncertainty has a shift towards value-driven consumption for packaged foods and other essential products sustained steady demand for our products. In building and construction markets, while lower interest rates are driving an increase in mortgage applications, affordability continues to constrain pent-up consumer demand for new and existing homes.

在亞洲，近期產能的增加將持續對區域供需動態構成壓力。儘管如此，我們仍然保持謹慎樂觀，因為該地區最近的合理化努力以及中國的反捲入措施可能會在中期內起到部分抵消作用。在包裝市場，即使在更廣泛的經濟不確定性中，需求仍然良好，包裝食品和其他必需品的消費轉向價值驅動型消費，從而維持了對我們產品的穩定需求。在建築市場，雖然較低的利率推動了房貸申請的增加，但房屋負擔能力仍然限制了消費者對新房和二手房的積壓需求。

In automotive markets, forecasts have become less pessimistic in the industry as recent trade agreements are providing greater clarity and reducing uncertainty across the sector. Lastly, in oxyfuels, despite a strong October, the seasonal compression in gasoline crack spreads are expected to reduce profitability for the remainder of the year. However, we expect industry downtime will provide some modest support for margins relative to typical fourth quarter trends.

在汽車市場，隨著近期貿易協議的達成，整個產業的不確定性降低，產業預測也變得不那麼悲觀了。最後，在含氧燃料方面，儘管 10 月表現強勁，但汽油裂解價差的季節性收窄預計將降低今年剩餘時間的獲利能力。不過，我們預期產業低迷期將對利潤率提供一定的支撐，使其與典型的第四季趨勢相比有所改善。

As we conclude today's call, I would like to acknowledge the resilience and discipline our team continues to demonstrate. Throughout the third quarter, we faced market headwinds and we will undoubtedly face more challenges before the year is done. But our team continues to make smart decisions while operating our assets safely and reliably to deliver on their commitments and provide value for customers. We continue to navigate the cycle with discipline, agility and a clear vision that will position LYB to emerge stronger and deliver lasting value for all our stakeholders. I am proud to lead this dedicated team as we continue taking strategic actions to reshape LYB, create value and position our company for sustainable success.

在今天的電話會議即將結束之際，我想對我們的團隊持續展現出的韌性和自律精神表示讚賞。第三季度，我們面臨市場逆風，毫無疑問，在今年結束之前，我們將面臨更多挑戰。但我們的團隊將繼續做出明智的決策，安全可靠地經營我們的資產，以履行承諾並為客戶創造價值。我們將繼續以嚴謹的態度、敏捷的思維和清晰的願景來應對週期性變化，這將使 LYB 變得更加強大，並為所有利害關係人帶來持久的價值。我很榮幸能夠領導這支敬業的團隊，我們將繼續採取策略行動來重塑 LYB，創造價值，並為公司的永續發展奠定基礎。

Now with that, we are pleased to take your questions.

現在，我們很高興回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Patrick Cunningham with Citigroup.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自花旗集團的 Patrick Cunningham。

I guess just on polyethylene, we seem to sit in a position of pretty resilient demand. You have some confidence exiting into next year on this growth trajectory. But with $65 crude net capacity addition is more likely to accelerate versus this year before closures become meaningful and then some trade flow uncertainty on top of that, how would you wait the likelihood of any sort of inflection point in supply and demand or underlying prices and margins into next year?

就聚乙烯而言，我們似乎處於需求相當強勁的局面。您對明年繼續保持這種成長勢頭有一定的信心。但是，在原油價格達到每桶 65 美元的情況下，淨產能增加可能會比今年加速，之後才會出現大規模的停產，再加上貿易流動的不確定性，您如何看待明年供需或基本價格和利潤率出現任何拐點的可能性？

Thank you, Patrick. Let me make a couple of comments on your question, and then I will hand over to Kim. Rightfully so, yes, as we've shown in the presentation, you see that spike of additional capacity coming on stream in China during the next couple of years. But as we have also shown about 1 million tons of Italian capacity is about to disappear as well. That's our estimation.

謝謝你，派崔克。我先就你的問題發表幾點看法，然後把麥克風交給Kim。沒錯，正如我們在簡報中所展示的那樣，未來幾年中國將迎來新增產能激增的局面。但正如我們所展示的，義大利約有 100 萬噸的產能也將消失。這是我們的估計。

Of course, not all of that has been really communicated and decided yet. But we believe that, that will be a good balancing out of the overcapacity.

當然，並非所有這些事項都已真正溝通和決定。但我們相信，這將很好地平衡產能過剩的問題。

Please remind, I mean that a lot of that capacity in China is at the wrong side of the cash cost curve, as we said in the prepared remarks. So they will have continuously difficulties to compete as well. And therefore, if margins remain low, then they would run at minimum technical capacity. So one may not -- and I've said that before, look at nameplate capacities only one needs to look at economical feasible capacity based upon current market conditions.

請注意，我的意思是，正如我們在準備好的演講稿中所說，中國許多產能都處於現金成本曲線的錯誤一側。因此，他們在競爭中也將持續面臨困難。因此，如果利潤率持續走低，那麼它們將以最低技術產能運作。所以，人們可能不應該──我以前也說過──只看銘牌產能，而應該根據當前的市場狀況來考慮經濟上可行的產能。

We continue to see that polyethylene globally is very robust in terms of demand. That, of course, has to do with the different application that it goes in. Consumer packaging continues to be very robust. What we have seen also in the past during critical periods in time like, for example, a pandemic. We also see that there is more and more support by having lower inflation rates, lower interest rates that, of course, we would expect will lead to more demand in durable goods.

我們持續看到，全球聚乙烯的需求非常強勁。當然，這與它所應用的領域不同有關。消費品包裝依然非常堅固耐用。我們過去在一些關鍵時期，例如疫情期間，也曾看到過這種情況。我們也看到，通貨膨脹率和利率的下降帶來了越來越多的支持，我們當然預期這將導致對耐用品的需求增加。

One may expect during the next couple of years than the housing market would be more positive than what we have experienced in 2025. And the last thing that I want to point out is that, I mean government spending on infrastructure is one element that is driving demand, tech, artificial intelligence, data centers, utility construction for power, EV cars and that -- they all demand, I mean, applications. These are all applications that increased demand, not just for polyethylene but also for polypropylene.

人們可能會預期，未來幾年房地產市場將比 2025 年的情況更加樂觀。最後我想指出的是，政府在基礎設施方面的支出是推動需求的一個因素，科技、人工智慧、資料中心、電力公用設施建設、電動車等等——所有這些都需要應用。這些應用都增加了對聚乙烯和聚丙烯的需求。

Kim, anything you want to add?

金，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I think the only thing that I would add to all those comments, Peter, as it relates to LyondellBasell and our ability for an inflection point in 2026 is going to be -- there's been new capacity -- derivative capacity brought online this year by one of our competitors. And there's another proposed set of assets coming online next year. So you're going to see a tightening in the ethylene market and that's going to likely improve change in margins as we think about '26.

彼得，我認為我唯一要補充的是，就利安德巴塞爾以及我們能否在 2026 年迎來轉捩點而言，今年我們的一個競爭對手新增了衍生性商品產能。還有另一批擬建資產將於明年上線。因此，乙烯市場將會趨於緊張，而當我們展望 2026 年時，這可能會改善利潤率的變化。

And with regards to mean to the oil gas ratio, I mean, we continue to believe that the high oil gas ratio is sustainable. We've seen oil gas ratios in the range of 15% to 25%. It would actually have to go down to, let's say, around 6, 7 for the productions in the Gulf Coast to, let's say, have a flattening cost curve, and we don't see that happening. We don't see that happening. We're more looking at something in the range of 12% to 15% and the immediate for foreseeable future.

至於油氣比，我的意思是，我們仍然認為高油氣比是可持續的。我們看到的油氣比例在 15% 到 25% 之間。實際上，墨西哥灣沿岸的生產成本曲線要趨於平緩，成本可能需要下降到比如說 6、7 左右，但我們看不到這種情況發生。我們認為這種情況不會發生。我們預計近期及未來一段時間內，這一比例將維持在 12% 到 15% 之間。

Our next question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Peter, in China, can you just talk to what -- discuss what's happened there? You have a unique perspective of getting your JV. So how -- why and how are these plants still running? Is it cheap Russian crude? Is it government support?

彼得，你在中國，能不能跟人聊聊──聊聊那裡發生了什麼事？您對成立合資企業有著獨特的見解。那麼，這些工廠為什麼還能繼續運作呢？這是廉價的俄羅斯原油嗎？這是政府支持嗎？

Or are they not allowed to close? Maybe you can relate that to your own experience with the board JV.

或者他們根本不被允許關門？或許你可以將此與你自己在董事會合資方面的經驗連結起來。

Thank you, David. That allows me. I mean then also that question to again highlight what I said in the prepared remarks. I mean you said it rightfully, we have unique access to the Chinese markets also due to our licensing activities. And the licensing activities, they have dropped about 80% from its peak in 2019.

謝謝你，大衛。這讓我可以。我的意思是，這個問題也是為了再次強調我在準備好的演講稿中所說的話。我的意思是，你說得對，由於我們的授權活動，我們也擁有進入中國市場的獨特管道。而授權活動則比 2019 年的高峰下降了約 80%。

So that's really what you see. I mean, that slow down, that cyclicality because, of course, on one hand side, there is no profitability in China. On the other hand side, you hear more and more in the next 5-year plan, discussions locally going on around ethylene and related projects, the burden, I mean, to get the approval from Central NDRC is much higher than eventually it has been by local NDRC in the past. If you look at our joint venture, we are running at technical minimum capacity if you look at -- and we are in first quartile, lowest cost in China. If you compare that to the others, why are they running a minimum technical capacity and not shutting down?

這就是你所看到的。我的意思是，這種放緩，這種週期性，因為一方面，當然，在中國沒有獲利能力。另一方面，在接下來的五年計劃中，你會越來越多地聽到地方上圍繞乙烯及相關項目的討論，我的意思是，獲得中央國家發改委的批准比過去地方國家發改委的批准要困難得多。如果你看看我們的合資企業，你會發現我們目前以技術最低產能運作——而且我們在中國處於成本最低的前四分之一水平。與其他公司相比，為什麼他們只維持最低技術產能而不關閉？

I think it continues to be mainly because of safeguarding employments. But everybody knows and everybody talks about the anti-involution measures. And even if it's still early, and we don't have the full visibility. You saw the chart in our presentation, we do expect and hear that on the ground that there will be quite some closures that will flow out of that anti-involution. So our level of confidence from quarter-to-quarter is increasing that there will be capacity shutdowns in China.

我認為這主要還是因為要保障就業。但人人都知道，人人都在談論反內捲措施。即使現在還為時過早，我們無法完全了解情況。您在我們的簡報中看到了圖表，我們預計並聽說，由於這種反內捲化趨勢，將會出現相當多的關閉事件。因此，我們每季對中國將會出現產能關閉的信心都在增強。

Kim?

金？

I think the only thing that I would add is just this week we announced at our JV that we have added ethane to the feed slate. So we're looking to improve our cost position even more.

我唯一要補充的是，就在本週，我們在合資企業宣布，我們已將乙烷添加到原料清單中。因此，我們希望進一步改善成本狀況。

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Blair with Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

我們的下一個問題來自馬修布萊爾與都鐸、皮克林、霍特的血統。

Great. Can you talk a little bit about the security of the dividend? I think the current yield is up to 12%. And despite the strong cash conversion this year, your free cash flow appears pretty unlikely to cover the dividend. So how are you thinking about this?

偉大的。能談談股息的安全性嗎？我認為目前的收益率高達 12%。儘管今年的現金轉換率很高，但你的自由現金流似乎不太可能支付股息。你對此有何看法？

And with the cash that you spent on the dividend, would that be better served in areas like shoring up the balance sheet or maintenance CapEx or things like that?

那麼，把用於分紅的現金，是否更適合用於改善資產負債表、維護性資本支出或其他類似方面呢？

Thank you, Matthew. And of course, I mean, we were expecting that someone would ask that question. So thank you for asking the question. Let me highlight, I mean 4 points on our thoughts on our dividends. First of all, as you all know, we were very careful in how we were managing our cash during the last couple of years.

謝謝你，馬修。當然，我的意思是，我們預料到有人會問這個問題。謝謝你提出這個問題。讓我重點強調一下，關於我們分紅的四點想法。首先，正如大家所知，在過去幾年裡，我們在現金管理方面一直非常謹慎。

And I know some people have asked us questions why are we keeping that cushion. Today, I'm happy that we did took those -- take those decisions in the past. So we started 2025 with a cash balance that provides us a cushion. It's a robust cash balance of $3.4 billion which has been much higher than the cash balance that we had in the past, which was more around $1.7 billion.

我知道有些人問過我們，為什麼要保留這筆緩衝資金。今天，我很高興我們過去做出了那些決定。因此，我們在 2025 年初擁有一定的現金餘額，這為我們提供了緩衝空間。目前現金餘額高達 34 億美元，遠高於我們過去的現金餘額（約 17 億美元）。

That's the first point.

這是第一點。

Second point, we continue to take a balanced approach to capital allocation especially as we are navigating the cycle. We reminded you, again, we are on track on the cash improvement plan. $1.1 billion at least until the end of 2026, the first tranche of $600 million until the end of 2025, we said well on track. And we also communicated today when we looked into more details on our CapEx for next year that we could further reduce our CapEx from $1.4 billion to $1.2 billion again in 2026.

第二點，我們繼續採取平衡的資本配置方法，尤其是在我們應對經濟週期波動的情況下。我們再次提醒各位，現金改善計畫進展順利。到2026年底，至少將籌集11億美元；到2025年底，首批6億美元的資金也將到位，我們當時就說過，一切進展良好。今天，我們在進一步研究明年資本支出細節時也表示，我們可能會在 2026 年將資本支出從 14 億美元進一步減少到 12 億美元。

The third point is our investment-grade balance sheet remains, of course, the foundation of our capital allocation strategy. You all know, I mean that investment grade makes it cheaper to do business, avoids -- I mean having to make dramatic changes to our strategy, our portfolio to address, I mean, the balance sheet and we continue to have very proactive dialogues with credit agencies. We are also fully aware of their expectations and the sensitivities. So also as part, you saw our actions of navigating the cycle. We proactively renegotiated the net debt-to-EBITDA covenants on our RCF in September from 3.5 notable to 4.5 turns and that through 2027.

第三點是，我們投資層級的資產負債表當然仍是我們資本配置策略的基礎。你們都知道，我的意思是，投資等級信用評級可以降低營運成本，避免——我的意思是，不得不對我們的策略和投資組合進行重大調整來解決資產負債表問題，而且我們一直在與信用評級機構進行非常積極的對話。我們也充分了解他們的期望和敏感點。所以，作為其中的一部分，你們也看到了我們應對這週期的行動。9 月份，我們主動重新協商了 RCF 的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率，從 3.5 倍提高到 4.5 倍，有效期至 2027 年。

And that's, of course, also -- these are activities that build trust with the rating agencies.

當然，這些活動也有助於建立與評級機構之間的信任。

And the last point I want to make is safe and reliable operations at sustaining CapEx remains a core priority for us. So we are not making -- we're not short cutting. We're not putting safety and reliability in jeopardy. But as we have transformed already our portfolio, it means that also moving forward, we can do with less safe and reliability so sustaining CapEx.

最後我想強調的是，安全可靠的營運和持續的資本支出仍然是我們的核心優先事項。所以我們沒有偷工減料——我們沒有走捷徑。我們不會拿安全性和可靠性冒險。但由於我們已經改變了投資組合，這意味著未來我們也可以在安全性和可靠性方面有所降低，從而維持資本支出。

And the last element is progressing, as we said, very well in that portfolio management, and that is the exit of the 4 sites, the sale that we have as said, with very good involvements of equity in the entire process. They are very committed. So therefore, we continue to believe that we will be able to close in the first half of 2026. And that, of course, will continue to free up CapEx for LYB.

最後一個方面，正如我們所說，在投資組合管理方面進展非常順利，那就是 4 個站點的退出，正如我們所說，我們已經完成了出售，整個過程中都有非常好的股權參與。他們非常投入。因此，我們仍然相信我們能夠在 2026 年上半年完成交易。當然，這將繼續為LYB騰出資本支出。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Your CapEx number for next year that you project $1.2 billion is below your depreciation and amortization. Are there any growth projects that are left in the capital budget for next year? And if there are, which ones? And for Agustine, do you expect your accounts payable to be very different in the fourth quarter than they were in the third quarter?

您預計明年資本支出為 12 億美元，低於您的折舊和攤提費用。明年的資本預算還有哪些成長項目？如果有的話，是哪些？對於 Agustine 而言，您預計第四季的應付帳款與第三季相比會有很大不同嗎？

Thank you, Jeff, for your question. Let me take the first part, and then I will hand over to Agustin to take the second part. If you remember well, I mean, then we have been investing quite above, I mean, depreciation during the last at least 4 or 5 years. And that gives us opportunities because we are not fully leveraging but those opportunities yet because of where the market today is. Let me remind you that we have our Hyperzone that was standing for $170 million per year improvements.

傑夫，謝謝你的提問。讓我先講第一部分，然後把第二部分交給奧古斯丁。如果你還記得的話，我的意思是，至少在過去的四、五年裡，我們的投資金額一直遠高於折舊。這為我們帶來了機遇，因為我們還沒有充分利用這些機遇，但鑑於目前的市場狀況，這些機會仍然存在。我想提醒各位，我們有一個“超級區域”，每年需要投入 1.7 億美元進行改進。

We are ramping it up. We do some additional smaller investments in Hyperzone so to make it very further reliable. We do the investment in acetyls reliability and the debottlenecking, the new technology, standing for $75 million. All of that, of course, mid-cycle margins. .

我們正在加大力度。我們對 Hyperzone 進行了一些額外的小額投資，使其更加可靠。我們投資 7,500 萬美元用於提高乙醯基的可靠性並消除瓶頸，採用新技術。當然，所有這些都是周期中期的利潤率。。

Our MRT-1 continued to progress, which is standing for about $25 million plus per year in EBITDA. MRT-2, we have progressed it up to a point where we said, okay, we will see, I mean, how the market further develops but we can activate it relatively quickly if the market develops further. And in addition to that, if we also -- if it fits from a cash, I mean perspective. PO/TBA, as you know, was standing for $450 million mid-cycle margin. We've worked, I mean, on capacity creep which adds another $50 million on top of that $450 million.

我們的 MRT-1 計畫持續推進，預計每年可帶來約 2,500 萬美元以上的 EBITDA。MRT-2，我們已經推進到一定階段，我們說，好吧，我們會看看市場如何進一步發展，但如果市場進一步發展，我們可以相對快速地啟用它。除此之外，如果──我的意思是，如果從現金角度來看也合適的話。如你所知，PO/TBA 代表 4.5 億美元的中期利潤。我的意思是，我們已經著手解決產能擴張問題，這在 4.5 億美元的基礎上又增加了 5,000 萬美元。

We've done productivity improvements in our PO/SM, $25 million. APS even if the market is very challenging, we continue to make very good progress. We have invested in net bad. We're still working on the second phase.

我們在採購訂單/銷售經理 (PO/SM) 部門實現了 2,500 萬美元的生產力提升。 APS即使市場充滿挑戰，我們仍然取得了非常好的進展。我們投資了淨虧損項目。我們仍在進行第二階段的工作。

And remember, we've launched, I mean, about 3 years ago, our value enhancement program. We're well on track to exceed, I mean, the $1 billion exit run rate mid-cycle margin target for the end of 2025. Of that, a real contribution is about $700 million, so what we call in periods is $ 700 million up to the end of this year. So the delta between the $1.15 billion and the $700 million, which is about $450 million is something we did not capture yet on one hand side because of future potential growth. And on the other hand side, because we are substantially below mid-cycle margins.

請記住，我們大約在 3 年前啟動了價值提升計畫。我們很有希望超過 2025 年底的週期中期利潤率目標，即 10 億美元的退出運行率。其中，實際貢獻金額約為 7 億美元，因此我們所說的「各期貢獻金額」是指截至今年年底的 7 億美元。因此，11.5 億美元和 7 億美元之間的差額（約 4.5 億美元）一方面是我們尚未捕捉到的，因為未來存在潛在的成長。另一方面，因為我們的利潤率遠低於週期中期的水準。

So if you add it all up, I think we have some -- quite some impressive growth opportunities as the markets continue -- as the market returns back, let's say, and we hope that, that will happen already in 2026, but definitely 2027, '28 and beyond.

所以，總而言之，我認為隨著市場持續復甦，我們將迎來一些——相當可觀的成長機會。我們希望這種情況能在 2026 年發生，但肯定會在 2027 年、2028 年及以後發生。

So with that, Agustin the second part of the question?

那麼，奧古斯丁，問題的第二部分是什麼？

Sure, Jeff. Thank you for the question. Happy to answer. I think it's just consistent with the remarks and comments on operating rates that we're expecting for Q4. It is also normal that our payables will be lower, probably in the neighborhood 40-50 lower versus what you saw in Q3.

當然可以，傑夫。謝謝你的提問。樂意解答。我認為這與我們預期第四季度的營運率相關評論和意見是一致的。我們的應付帳款減少也是正常的，可能比第三季減少 40-50%。

But I would also highlight that we are expecting a working capital release in Q4 close to $1 billion. This is consistent also with the cash improvement plan with all the very good measures we're taking throughout the year and not dissimilar actually to what we did during fourth quarter of 2024. So we know how to do this, and we will again be very focused on cash generation.

但我還要強調，我們預計第四季將釋放近 10 億美元的營運資金。這也與我們全年採取的所有非常好的措施所製定的現金改善計劃相一致，實際上與我們在 2024 年第四季度所做的事情並沒有太大區別。所以我們知道該怎麼做，我們將再次非常注重現金流的創造。

Our next question comes from the line of John Roberts with Mizuho Securities.

下一個問題來自瑞穗證券的約翰羅伯茲。

When you sell or out-license technology, the customer's plant starts up several years later, and you noted the low activity currently. But you have your catalyst sales kind of lag that. When do your catalyst sales peak? And more importantly, when is the drop-off than in the new start-ups of the companies that you've licensed -- out-licensed to?

當你出售或授權技術時，客戶的工廠幾年後才開始運營，而你注意到目前的業務量很低。但是你的催化劑銷售額卻有點滯後。你們的催化劑銷售高峰期是什麼時候？更重要的是，在你授權給其他公司（或稱外發公司）的新興新創公司中，何時會下滑？

Thank you, John. Very good detailed question. I mean, normally, the catalyst sale, I wouldn't say really peaks and then it drops down. It's more dependent on the run rates of the assets. So what you see today is assets that are buying our catalysts like, for example, in China, when they run at minimum technical capacity, then of course, the sales of catalysts are slower because you don't consume the catalyst as fast.

謝謝你，約翰。非常好的問題，問得很詳細。我的意思是，通常情況下，催化劑的銷售額不會先達到頂峰然後回落。這更取決於資產的運行速度。所以你今天看到的是，像中國這樣的資產正在購買我們的催化劑，當它們以最低技術產能運作時，催化劑的銷售速度當然會變慢，因為催化劑的消耗速度不會那麼快。

But as if operating rates would go up or for example, if new investments and common stream, then you would continue to see that our catalyst sale is going up. We've done in the last couple of years. I didn't mention that when answering the question of Jeff. But of course, during the last couple of years, we had done some investments on debottlenecking also on the catalyst side to be prepared if the market picks up, then we would be able, of course, also to then produce and sell those catalysts.

但是，如果營運率上升，或者例如，如果新的投資和共同流，那麼你就會看到我們的催化劑銷售額繼續上升。過去幾年我們一直這樣做。我在回答傑夫的問題時沒有提到這一點。當然，在過去的幾年裡，我們也對催化劑的瓶頸消除進行了一些投資，以便做好準備，如果市場回暖，我們當然也能生產和銷售這些催化劑。

Our next question comes from the line of Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 公司的 Frank Mitsch。

Happy Halloween, everyone. Peter, a comment on a question, my comment or I guess to summarize your thoughtful response on the dividend is that yes, we will pay it in the near term. Am I interpreting that correctly? And then secondly, from a high-level perspective, looking at the fourth quarter, you outlined $110 million sequential headwinds from turnarounds obviously, we'll layer in some seasonality that's typical in the fourth quarter. Are there any other material puts and takes that we should be aware of looking at the fourth quarter relative to the third quarter?

萬聖節快樂，各位。Peter，關於您提出的一個問題，或者說，總結您關於股息的深思熟慮的回答，我的評論是：是的，我們將在近期支付股息。我的理解正確嗎？其次，從宏觀角度來看，展望第四季度，您指出，由於業務轉型，第四季度將面臨 1.1 億美元的環比不利影響，顯然，我們還要考慮第四季度常見的季節性因素。相對於第三季度，在觀察第四季時，還有哪些重要的買賣交易值得我們注意？

Thank you, Frank, and thanks for wishing us a nice Halloween. I'm not going to tell you if we are having a Halloween costumes here in our room. To your first question, again, as I said, on the 4 points and what you see from our actions in navigating the cycle, we have that very sharp focus on cash conversion. We have our cash improvement plan. We're proceeding very well in that.

謝謝你，弗蘭克，也謝謝你祝我們萬聖節快樂。我不會告訴你我們房間裡會不會有萬聖節服裝活動。對於你的第一個問題，正如我所說，關於這 4 點以及你從我們應對週期的行動中看到的情況，我們非常注重現金轉換。我們有現金流改善計劃。我們在這方面進展得非常順利。

We have a strong balance sheet to start -- that we have started with, and it continues to be in very good shape. I know, I mean, from our history, I mean, this is a fantastic team that is really focused, I mean, on execution.

我們一開始就擁有非常穩健的資產負債表——而且它一直保持著非常好的狀態。我知道，我的意思是，從我們的歷史來看，這是一個非常優秀的團隊，他們非常注重執行力。

The team has shown in the past that we are excellent in execution. So from that perspective, that's what we are doing. I mean control the controllables, focus on the execution and make sure that we continue to make progress. So I don't know what else I mean that I should say, I mean, to that, I'm very pleased. Yes, when I see, I mean, how aligned everybody in the company is and how everybody is doing its best diligently by controlling the controllables.

團隊過去已經證明，我們在執行方面非常出色。所以從這個角度來看，這就是我們正在做的事情。我的意思是，控制好可控因素，專注於執行，確保我們持續進步。所以我不知道我還能說什麼，我的意思是，我對此非常滿意。是的，當我看到公司裡的每個人目標一致，每個人都盡心盡力控制自己可控的因素時，我就會明白。

To your second question, Q4 outlook, you're right. I mean we -- when we looked at the market environment, and we had some work, I mean, that we wanted to do in Wesseling at OM6 some work that we had to do, I mean, in Matagorda and then also looking at acetyls and PO/SM and I&D. So we said let's take the opportunity. Now let's do it now in Q4 instead of waiting until, I don't know, maybe the second half of 2026. So then we are ready, and we don't have a lot of these downtimes with its respective impact on the bottom line for 2026.

關於你的第二個問題，第四季展望，你說得對。我的意思是，當我們審視市場環境時，我們有一些工作要做，我的意思是，我們想在韋塞林的 OM6 做一些工作，我們必須做一些工作，我的意思是，在馬塔戈達，然後還要關注乙醯基、PO/SM 和 I&D。所以我們說，讓我們抓住這個機會。現在就讓我們在第四季完成這件事，而不是等到，我不知道，也許等到 2026 年下半年。這樣一來，我們就做好了準備，不會出現很多停機時間，也不會對 2026 年的最終收益造成太大影響。

So that's a decision that we took and assets you rightfully recalled, I mean, what that delta is compared to me to Q3.

所以這是我們做出的決定，你正確地收回了資產，我的意思是，與第三季相比，這對我來說意味著什麼。

We have polyethylene price increases on the table. We, of course, continue to look at everything what is happening in the market. I mean, polyethylene has grown. Exports continue to be robust based upon low delivered cost positions that manufacturers, including ourselves, have in the Gulf Coast. So we will continue to, of course, push, I mean, for price increases because we believe it is appropriate that polyethylene prices go up.

聚乙烯價格上漲的問題已經提上日程。當然，我們會繼續關注市場上發生的一切。我的意思是，聚乙烯產業發展壯大了。由於製造商（包括我們自己）在墨西哥灣沿岸地區擁有較低的交貨成本，出口仍然強勁。所以，我們當然會繼續推動價格上漲，因為我們認為聚乙烯價格上漲是合理的。

Too early to say if we will be successful, but it gets a lot of attention, of course. Maybe I want to hand over also to Aaron to talk a little bit about MTBE raw material margins seasonality to give a little bit more color on that because October was very strong in his area.

現在說我們是否會成功還為時過早，但當然，它已經引起了很多關注。也許我還想把麥克風交給 Aaron，讓他談談 MTBE 原材料利潤率的季節性，以便更詳細地說明這一點，因為在他所在的地區，10 月份的業績非常強勁。

Yes. Thanks, Peter. I appreciate the opportunity to talk a little bit about MTBE. So it has, to your point, a really good start to the quarter with premiums carrying over from September into October. As I mentioned in my planned remarks, much of the third quarter benefit was from both planned and unplanned outages, not only in the U.S.

是的。謝謝你，彼得。我很榮幸有機會談談MTBE。所以，正如你所說，本季開局非常好，保費從9月延續到了10月份。正如我在計劃的發言中提到的，第三季的大部分收益來自計劃內和計劃外的停電，而不只是發生在美國。

Gulf Coast, but in the Atlantic Basin. And as we've seen those premiums carry over into October, I just want to remind everyone that 20% of U.S. Gulf Coast capacity remains off-line and should be back in operation maybe second half of November. So it's still possible that we see positive premiums carry over into November. And what we would usually say is a seasonally low quarter for oxyfuels margins.

位於墨西哥灣沿岸，但屬於大西洋盆地。鑑於這些溢價已經延續到 10 月份，我只想提醒大家，美國墨西哥灣沿岸 20% 的輸電能力仍然處於停駛狀態，預計要到 11 月下半月才能恢復營運。因此，正保費仍有可能延續到11月。我們通常會說，這是氧氣燃料利潤率的季節性低谷季度。

And many have a look, I mean, also Europe, I mean, diesel cracks are very strong, with everything that is happening around Russia. Gasoline is performing better. I'll point you to our gasoline inventories. They are materially lower than normally at that point in the cycle. And we are not done yet with our fixed cost reductions in our cash improvement plan.

很多人都在關注，我的意思是，歐洲也是如此，柴油裂縫非常嚴重，這與俄羅斯周圍發生的一切有關。汽油表現較好。我會帶你查看我們的汽油庫存。它們比周期該階段的正常水平要低得多。我們的現金改善計劃中的固定成本削減工作尚未完成。

We've delivered very well in Q3 but of course, you will see more that is flowing in Q4 as well. So if I take everything together, yes, I mean, there is an impact that we have from that -- those decisions on the increased downtime in Q4, very deliberate decisions, do the turnarounds, do the maintenance work now instead of postponing it or doing it as normally we would probably say we would do it in 2026 somewhere.

我們在第三季取得了非常好的成績，當然，您也會在第四季看到更多成果湧現。所以，如果我把所有因素綜合起來考慮，是的，我的意思是，這確實對我們產生了影響——第四季度增加停機時間的決定，是非常慎重的決定，現在就進行檢修和維護工作，而不是推遲或像往常一樣說我們會在 2026 年的某個時候進行。

Our next question comes from the line of Matt DeYoe with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Matt DeYoe。

This is Salvator Tiano filling in for Matt. I wanted to ask about the slide where you show car already happened and projected ethylene capacity closures. And firstly, can you discuss how many of these have already happened in prior years before 2024 because I believe the notes as this goes back to 2020? And for both ethylene as well as polyethylene, can you talk about where operating rates are today. So essentially, how important would the incremental closures be from today rather than just on the 2020 to 2024 period?

這是薩爾瓦托·蒂亞諾，他代替馬特出場。我想問一下您展示的關於乙烯產能關閉已經發生和預計關閉的幻燈片。首先，您能否討論其中有多少事件在 2024 年之前的年份已經發生過？因為我相信相關記錄可以追溯到 2020 年。乙烯和聚乙烯目前的開工率分別是多少？那麼，從本質上講，從今天開始逐步關閉的門市，與僅僅關注 2020 年至 2024 年期間的門市相比，究竟有多重要？

Let me give you the first shot, Matt. Thank you for your question. If I look at the closures and the announcements that have been made so far, it's somewhere, let's say, in the ballpark of 9.5 million tonnes of ethylene capacity. So there's still things that have been communicated that have been talked about that we would expect to see to come up with that 21 million tonnes. And again, on the 21 million tonnes, especially also on regions where it's -- these assets are not very competitive like in Europe, for example.

馬特，我先給你一次機會。謝謝你的提問。如果我看一下目前關閉的工廠和已經發布的公告，那麼乙烯產能的減少量大概在 950 萬噸左右。所以，還有一些已經溝通過、討論過的事情，我們希望能夠實現 2,100 萬噸的目標。再說，這 2,100 萬噸的儲量，尤其是在歐洲等地區，這些資產的競爭力並不強。

Even if there is 20% of ethylene capacity that we expect to disappear based upon the announcements, we don't believe that we are at the end of all the announcement yet. We still expect there will be more to come.

即使根據已公佈的消息，我們預計乙烯產能將減少 20%，但我們並不認為所有公告都已經發布完畢。我們仍然期待會有更多後續發展。

Yes. I think the simple answer, and the reason that we created this chart, the way that we did is so that you know what is closed today because so many people are announcing closures in the future and then there's this anticipation. So I will also go back to some of the comments that Peter made in his prepared remarks. You'll notice, for example, in China, we don't show any anticipated closures yet we all are hearing comments every day about anti-involution and what that will be and whether you believe the criteria about 300 kt plants and 20 years for some of the new evolving criteria that is being discussed in China now. You have the potential for another 4 million to 8 million metric tons that comes out there.

是的。我認為簡單的答案，也是我們製作這張圖表的原因，就是為了讓大家知道今天哪些地方關閉了，因為很多人都在宣布未來會關閉哪些地方，然後大家就會有這種期待。所以，我也會回顧彼得在事先準備好的演講稿中提到的一些內容。例如，你會注意到，在中國，我們沒有顯示任何預期關閉的工廠，但我們每天都能聽到關於反內卷的評論，以及這將是什麼，以及你是否相信關於30萬噸級工廠和20年期限的標準，這是中國目前正在討論的一些新的發展標準。那裡還有可能開採出另外 400 萬至 800 萬噸原油。

And then the last comment that I want to reiterate is this domino effect. A lot of these are ethylene cracker announcements. So now the feedstocks are coming out of these derivatives and industrial parks, and it leaves a lot of ambiguity around what's the steam provider going to do? What's the natural gas provider going to do? Is this still going to be an economic situation for all parties involved in the complex.

最後我想重申一點，那就是骨牌效應。其中很多都是乙烯裂解裝置的公告。現在原料來自這些衍生性商品和工業園區，這給蒸汽供應商接下來要做什麼留下了很多不確定性？天然氣供應商打算怎麼做？對於該項目的所有相關方而言，這是否仍將是一種經濟狀況？

So I do believe there's dominos that we will also see.

所以我相信還會出現一些連鎖反應，我們也會看到這些反應發生。

And I want to point out to your second question on operating rates. I mean, we need to differentiate. That's a key message that I had in one of the first questions because low-cost delivered assets are running at very high capacity at this point in time, because they are competitive. If you look at European capacities, if you look at Chinese capacities then there, I would say, yes, they are running at minimum technical capacity. So that may be 70%, 75% some of them minimum technical capacity if they don't have the flexibility as close to 80%.

我想就你提出的第二個問題，即營運率，指出一些問題。我的意思是，我們需要區分一下。這是我在第一個問題中傳達的關鍵訊息之一，因為目前低成本交付的資產正以非常高的產能運行，因為它們具有競爭力。如果你看看歐洲的產能，如果你看看中國的產能，那麼我會說，是的，它們都在以最低技術產能運作。所以，如果他們沒有足夠的彈性，那麼他們的最低技術能力可能達到 70% 或 75%，接近 80%。

But that's the scenario that you see unfolding during the entire year 2025, and that's what you would expect also in a market where supply and demand is not balanced is that the low-cost delivered capacities will continue to make good returns, create good cash flow and run at maximum capacity, whereby the other ones are either force the mean to consolidate to idle, to shut down or run at technical minimum capacity.

但這就是你在 2025 年全年將會看到的情景，也是在供需不平衡的市場中你所預期的：低成本產能將繼續獲得良好的回報，創造良好的現金流並滿負荷運轉，而其他產能要么迫使平均水平停滯，要么關閉，要么以技術最低產能運轉。

Our final question this morning will come from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

今天早上的最後一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

This is Turner Hinrichs on for Vincent. I'm wondering if you all can help provide some thoughts on the bridge to 2026 in I&D. Specifically, there are some items that we may need to level set for including sizable U.S propylene oxide closure, potential headwinds to octane cracks from a refinery in Nigeria, assuming the rates return to high levels. Reversal of this year's [cetyls] turnarounds for you all and U.S.

這是特納·欣里希斯替補文森特上場。我想知道大家能否就 I&D 領域到 2026 年的過渡階段提供一些想法。具體來說，我們可能需要對一些項目進行調整，包括美國大型環氧丙烷工廠的關閉，以及假設尼日利亞煉油廠的產量恢復到高位，可能對辛烷值裂解造成不利影響。今年[cetyls]的逆轉對你們所有人以及美國來說都是如此。

Gulf Coast competitor capacity coming back online and MTBE. It'd be great to hear some thoughts.

墨西哥灣沿岸競爭對手的產能恢復上線，以及MTBE。很想聽聽大家的想法。

Yes. Thank you for the final question. So maybe I'll point to a few different comments and we have reason for optimism as we look to 2026. I'll start with PO rationalization, to your point, 10% of global capacity has been announced to come off-line in the last 12 months. And so in the primary regions that we serve, we're already seeing market share improvement, particularly in the U.S.

是的。謝謝你提出的最後一個問題。所以，我或許可以指出一些不同的評論，讓我們有理由對2026年保持樂觀。我先從採購訂單合理化說起，正如你所說，過去 12 個月裡，全球 10% 的產能已宣布停產。因此，在我們主要服務的地區，我們已經看到市場份額有所改善，尤其是在美國。

and in Europe. You spoke to asset deals. That's an investment that we've been waiting to make really at this level since COVID. We've been pushing capital out and waiting to invest in the asset.

在歐洲也是如此。你談過資產交易。自從新冠疫情以來，我們一直在等待機會進行這樣規模的投資。我們一直在投入資金，等待投資該資產。

But the investment that we're making, we do expect it not only to show in terms of improvement from reliability, but we'll also see additional capacity coming out of our acid unit next year. I already mentioned in my planned remarks from a PO/TBA capacity perspective, we've demonstrated that we can run beyond benchmark rates, a little less than 10%. And remember, that's CapEx free capacity. So I'd say that's -- combine all 3 of those, and that's the reason why I look to 2026 and have some optimism.

但我們所做的投資，我們期望它不僅能提高可靠性，而且明年我們的酸裝置還將增加產能。我已經在我計劃的發言中從 PO/TBA 產能的角度提到過，我們已經證明我們可以超越基準率，略低於 10%。記住，這是無需資本支出的產能。所以我覺得，把這三點結合起來，就是我對 2026 年抱持樂觀態度的原因。

Thank you. That concludes our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Vanacker for any final comments.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。我將把發言權交還給範納克先生，請他作最後的總結發言。

Thank you again for all your thoughts, for questions. Let me make some final comments. Our sharp focus on cash conversion, our cash improvement plan and our strong balance sheet is allowing us to successfully navigate through this prolonged downturn, and our execution track record clearly demonstrates our progress. We have captured some of the value from our past investments in the new PO/TBA facility, Hyperzone PE, the [net bad] joint venture and our value enhancement program. These investments will provide further upside as markets recover.

再次感謝大家的想法和問題。最後，我再補充幾點。我們高度重視現金週轉，制定了現金改善計劃，並擁有強勁的資產負債表，這使我們能夠成功度過這段長期的經濟低迷期，而我們的執行記錄也清楚地表明了我們的進步。我們已經從過去對新的 PO/TBA 設施、Hyperzone PE、[淨虧損]合資企業和我們的價值提升計劃的投資中獲得了一些價值。隨著市場復甦，這些投資將帶來進一步的上漲收益。

In addition, with our ongoing investments in MoReTec 1 and our acetyls technology, LYB is well positioned to capture market growth and create additional durable long-term value for our shareholders.

此外，憑藉我們對 MoReTec 1 和乙醯基技術的持續投資，LYB 已做好充分準備，抓住市場成長機遇，並為股東創造更多持久的長期價值。

Over the past 3.5 years, we've actively managed our business portfolio and we are progressing well with the execution of our European strategic assessment. Upon completion, we will have established a much more focused industry-leading low-cost model. We're finding some tailwinds for 2026 and 2027. Monetary policy is becoming more accommodative for the industrial economy. And LYB is prepared.

在過去的3.5年中，我們積極管理我們的業務組合，並且我們在歐洲策略評估的執行方面取得了良好進展。完成後，我們將建立一個更具針對性、業界領先的低成本模式。我們發現2026年和2027年有一些利多因子。貨幣政策正變得更加寬鬆，以利於工業經濟。LYB已經做好準備。

After several years of heavy maintenance, we expect next year, we will have less downtime and our smaller footprint will require less sustaining capital to support our results over '26 and '27. We hope that you all have a great weekend and a great Halloween. Stay well and stay safe. Thank you.

經過幾年的大力維護，我們預計明年停機時間會減少，而且我們較小的佔地面積所需的維持性資本也會減少，從而支持我們在 2026 年和 2027 年的業績。祝大家週末愉快，萬聖節快樂！祝您身體健康，注意安全。謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。您可以在此時斷開線路。感謝您的參與。