藍威斯頓 (LW) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the Lamb Weston First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Dexter Congbalay. Please go ahead.

    美好的一天,歡迎參加 Lamb Weston 第一季度收益電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。此時,我想將會議交給 Dexter Congbalay。請繼續。

  • Dexter P. Congbalay - VP of IR

    Dexter P. Congbalay - VP of IR

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Lamb Weston's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. This morning, we issued our earnings press release, which is available on our website, lambweston.com.

    早上好,感謝您參加 Lamb Weston 的 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。今天早上,我們發布了我們的收益新聞稿,該新聞稿可在我們的網站lambweston.com 上找到。

  • Please note that during our remarks, we'll make some forward-looking statements about the company's expected performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our SEC filings for more details on our forward-looking statements.

    請注意,在我們的講話中,我們將對公司的預期業績做出一些前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於我們今天看待事物的方式。由於風險和不確定性,實際結果可能存在重大差異。請參閱我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中的警示性聲明和風險因素,了解有關我們前瞻性聲明的更多詳細信息。

  • Some of today's remarks include non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with our GAAP results. You can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations in our earnings release.

    今天的一些評論包括非公認會計準則財務措施。這些非公認會計原則財務指標不應被視為替代我們的公認會計原則結果,而應與我們的公認會計原則結果一起閱讀。您可以在我們的收益發布中找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的對賬。

  • With me today are Tom Werner, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bernadette Madarieta, our Chief Financial Officer. Tom will provide an overview of the current environment. Bernadette will then provide details on our first quarter results and our fiscal 2023 outlook. With that, let me now turn the call over to Tom.

    今天和我在一起的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Tom Werner;和我們的首席財務官 Bernadette Madarieta。 Tom 將概述當前環境。伯納黛特隨後將提供有關我們第一季度業績和 2023 財年展望的詳細信息。有了這個,現在讓我把電話轉給湯姆。

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Dexter. Good morning, and thank you for joining our call today. We're pleased with our performance in the quarter. We drove strong sales growth, expanded our gross margin and nearly doubled adjusted EBITDA, including unconsolidated joint ventures. Our results reflect our continued focus on implementing pricing actions to offset input and transportation cost inflation, driving productivity and cost saving initiatives, increasing service levels for our customers in each of our sales channels and supporting our people and talent.

    謝謝你,德克斯特。早上好,感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。我們對本季度的表現感到滿意。我們推動了強勁的銷售增長,擴大了毛利率,調整後的 EBITDA 幾乎翻了一番,包括未合併的合資企業。我們的業績反映了我們繼續專注於實施定價行動以抵消投入和運輸成本膨脹、推動生產力和成本節約計劃、提高每個銷售渠道中客戶的服務水平以及支持我們的員工和人才。

  • We built good operating momentum over the past few quarters by focusing on these near-term objectives, and we are confident in our ability to deliver the upper end of our sales and earning target ranges for the year.

    通過專注於這些近期目標,我們在過去幾個季度建立了良好的運營勢頭,我們有信心實現全年銷售和盈利目標範圍的上限。

  • I'm especially proud that the Lamb Weston team has continued to generate solid results in a very difficult macroeconomic environment. We expect this environment to remain challenging, at least through fiscal 2023, as inflation, a growing threat of recession and industry-wide supply chain disruptions continue to pressure demand for fries as well as our cost structure.

    我特別自豪的是,Lamb Weston 團隊在非常困難的宏觀經濟環境中繼續取得可觀的成果。我們預計,至少到 2023 財年,這種環境仍將充滿挑戰,因為通貨膨脹、日益嚴重的衰退威脅和全行業供應鏈中斷繼續對薯條的需求以及我們的成本結構構成壓力。

  • It's no surprise that inflationary trends for food, energy and housing have affected restaurant traffic in the U.S. over the past 6 months. We saw similar restaurant traffic trends during the Great Recession as consumer discretionary income came under pressure. While traffic at quick service restaurants has held up relatively well, it has come at the expense of casual dining and full-service restaurants as consumers increasingly choose less expensive options when dining away from home.

    過去 6 個月,食品、能源和住房的通脹趨勢影響了美國的餐廳客流量,這並不奇怪。由於消費者可自由支配收入面臨壓力,我們在大蕭條期間看到了類似的餐廳客流量趨勢。雖然快餐店的客流量保持相對較好,但其代價是休閒餐飲和全方位服務的餐廳,因為消費者在外出就餐時越來越多地選擇較便宜的選擇。

  • In the past month or so, we've seen casual dining and full-service restaurant traffic tick up from summer lows, but traffic remains below levels achieved just prior to the war in Ukraine. Unlike traffic trends, fry demand continues to be solid when dining out. The fry attachment rate, which is the rate at which consumers order fries when visiting a restaurant or other food-service outlets remains above pre pandemic levels. Fry demand in retail channels has also benefited as restaurant traffic slows.

    在過去一個月左右的時間裡,我們看到休閒餐飲和全方位服務餐廳的客流量從夏季的低點回升,但客流量仍低於烏克蘭戰爭前的水平。與客流量趨勢不同的是,外出就餐時油炸食品的需求依然穩定。炸薯條附著率,即消費者在訪問餐廳或其他餐飲服務網點時訂購炸薯條的比率,仍高於大流行前的水平。隨著餐廳客流量放緩,零售渠道的油炸需求也受益。

  • Overall, we expect volatility in restaurant traffic and demand trends will continue through fiscal 2023. But history has shown that this category is resilient during economic downturns. Although we may see some category weakness in the near term, we remain confident in the long-term growth prospects of the category in the U.S. and in our key international markets.

    總體而言,我們預計餐廳客流量和需求趨勢的波動將持續到 2023 財年。但歷史表明,這一類別在經濟低迷時期具有彈性。儘管我們可能會在短期內看到一些類別的疲軟,但我們仍然對該類別在美國和我們主要國際市場的長期增長前景充滿信心。

  • In addition, as category growth returns to historical rates, we should be well positioned to capture at least our share of growth with our investments in new processing capacity in Idaho and China as well as our newly announced expansion in Argentina.

    此外,隨著類別增長恢復到歷史水平,我們應該做好準備,通過我們在愛達荷州和中國的新加工能力的投資以及我們在阿根廷新宣布的擴張,至少獲得我們的增長份額。

  • With respect to pricing, our overall price/mix growth accelerated for the fourth consecutive quarter. In our Foodservice and Retail segments, we continue to realize a carryover benefit of multiple product pricing actions that we have taken over the past 15 months and expect the benefit of these actions will continue to gradually build through the first half of fiscal 2023.

    在定價方面,我們的整體價格/組合增長連續第四個季度加速。在我們的餐飲服務和零售部門,我們繼續實現過去 15 個月採取的多項產品定價行動的結轉收益,並預計這些行動的收益將在 2023 財年上半年繼續逐步建立。

  • In our Global segment, we made good progress in increasing price/mix through price escalators included in multiyear contracts while also securing some price adjustments outside of these agreements. In addition, we've nearly completed negotiating contract renewals that represent about 1/3 of our Global segment volume. Overall, we feel good about how the discussions played out, and we'll generally begin to see the results of these new pricing structures during the second half of fiscal 2023.

    在我們的全球部門,我們通過多年合同中包含的價格自動扶梯在提高價格/組合方面取得了良好進展,同時還確保了這些協議之外的一些價格調整。此外,我們幾乎完成了合同續約談判,約占我們全球業務量的 1/3。總體而言,我們對討論的結果感到滿意,我們通常會在 2023 財年下半年開始看到這些新定價結構的結果。

  • Finally, with respect to this year's potato crop. Our preliminary view is the potato crop in our growing regions in the aggregate will be around the lower end of historical average range. Specifically, the overall quality of the crop, including shape, color, level of defects and solid content is good and consistent with historical averages. Yields, however, are below average. The unusually hot weather during August affected the growth of the potatoes and resulted in a greater-than-average proportion of potatoes failing to bulk up to the desired size.

    最後,關於今年的馬鈴薯產量。我們初步認為,我們種植區的馬鈴薯總產量將在歷史平均範圍的低端附近。具體來說,作物的整體質量,包括形狀、顏色、缺陷程度和固體含量,都很好,與歷史平均水平一致。然而,收益率低於平均水平。 8 月異常炎熱的天氣影響了馬鈴薯的生長,導致馬鈴薯未能達到所需大小的比例高於平均水平。

  • In response, we've already begun to secure the additional potatoes needed to meet our production forecast and expect to purchase most of this from growers in the Columbia Basin in Idaho. That's in contrast to last year when we purchased potatoes at significant premiums to contracted prices and transported them from as far away as the East Coast.

    作為回應,我們已經開始確保滿足我們的產量預測所需的額外馬鈴薯,並希望從愛達荷州哥倫比亞盆地的種植者那裡購買大部分馬鈴薯。這與去年我們以高於合同價格的高價購買馬鈴薯並從遠至東海岸運輸它們時形成鮮明對比。

  • As you may recall, our financial targets for the year were predicated in part on an average potato crop, and we believe this crop is broadly consistent with our expectations. While the low average yields will result in additional open market purchases at higher-than-contracted prices, we do not expect this to affect our ability to deliver our financial targets.

    您可能還記得,我們今年的財務目標部分基於平均馬鈴薯產量,我們相信這一產量與我們的預期大體一致。雖然較低的平均收益率將導致以高於合同價格的額外公開市場購買,但我們預計這不會影響我們實現財務目標的能力。

  • To be clear, we view this crop as significantly better than last year's, which was poor both in terms of yield and quality due to the prolonged extreme summer heat in the Pacific Northwest. We'll provide our final assessment of the crop, including how it performs out of storage when we report our second quarter results in early January.

    需要明確的是,我們認為今年的收成明顯好於去年,由於太平洋西北部的夏季酷熱時間延長,去年的產量和質量都很差。我們將在 1 月初報告我們的第二季度業績時提供對作物的最終評估,包括它在儲存後的表現。

  • So in summary, we generated strong sales and earnings growth in the first quarter by executing pricing actions in each of our business segments and driving productivity savings. We expect restaurant traffic and fry demand will be volatile in the near term as consumers continue to adjust to the inflationary environment. And on a preliminary basis, we believe the potato crops in our growing regions are at the lower end of historical average range and that any effect on our operations or financial performance will be manageable.

    因此,總而言之,我們通過在每個業務部門執行定價行動並推動生產力節約,在第一季度實現了強勁的銷售和盈利增長。我們預計,隨著消費者繼續適應通脹環境,餐廳客流量和油炸食品需求將在短期內波動。初步而言,我們認為我們種植區的馬鈴薯作物處於歷史平均範圍的低端,對我們的運營或財務業績的任何影響都是可控的。

  • Let me now turn the call over to Bernadette to review the details of our first quarter results and our progress towards our fiscal 2023 financial commitments.

    現在讓我將電話轉給伯納黛特,以審查我們第一季度業績的詳細信息以及我們在 2023 財年財務承諾方面的進展。

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Tom, and good morning, everyone. As Tom said, we're pleased with our performance in the quarter, and we are confident in our ability to deliver at the high end of our financial target ranges for the year. In the quarter, our sales grew 14% to more than $1.1 billion. Price/mix was up 19% as we continued to benefit from product and freight pricing actions that we announced last fiscal year and as we began to execute new pricing actions during the fiscal -- for the first quarter.

    謝謝,湯姆,大家早上好。正如湯姆所說,我們對本季度的表現感到滿意,並且我們有信心實現今年財務目標範圍的高端。本季度,我們的銷售額增長了 14%,超過 11 億美元。由於我們繼續受益於我們上一財年宣布的產品和運費定價行動,以及我們在第一季度開始執行新的定價行動,價格/組合上漲了 19%。

  • Our sales volumes were down 5%, primarily reflecting the softer restaurant traffic trends in U.S. casual dining and full-service outlets that Tom described earlier as well as the timing of shipments to large chain restaurant customers. In Retail, while branded product volumes were up, overall Retail segment volumes were down with the ongoing effect of losing certain low-margin private label business. Sales volumes in Foodservice and Retail also continued to be affected by our inability to fully serve customer demand as a result of constrained production at our facilities.

    我們的銷售額下降了 5%,主要反映了 Tom 之前描述的美國休閒餐飲和全方位服務店的餐廳客流量趨勢疲軟,以及向大型連鎖餐廳客戶發貨的時間。在零售方面,雖然品牌產品銷量上升,但整體零售部門銷量下降,原因是失去某些低利潤的自有品牌業務的持續影響。由於我們設施的生產受限,我們無法充分滿足客戶需求,這也繼續影響餐飲服務和零售的銷量。

  • Gross profit increased $122 million to $273 million in the quarter. Gross margin expanded nearly 900 basis points versus the prior year quarter and 230 basis points sequentially to more than 24%. Pricing actions and productivity savings drove these improvements, more than offsetting the impact of higher costs on a per pound basis and lower sales volumes. Cost per pound increased high single digits, with inflation again accounting for essentially all of the increase. Higher prices for inputs such as edible oils, ingredients for batter and other coatings, labor and transportation were the primary drivers.

    本季度毛利潤增加 1.22 億美元至 2.73 億美元。毛利率較去年同期增長近 900 個基點,環比增長 230 個基點至 24% 以上。定價行動和生產力節省推動了這些改進,不僅抵消了每磅成本較高和銷量下降的影響。每磅成本增加了高個位數,通貨膨脹再次佔了所有增加的主要原因。食用油、麵糊和其他塗料配料、勞動力和運輸等投入品價格上漲是主要驅動因素。

  • Potato costs were also up as a result of the [poor] crop that was harvested last fall. We'll continue to realize the financial impact of this crop through most of the second quarter of fiscal 2023 as we sell the final finished goods produced from the crop. And finally, we continue to incur higher costs and operational inefficiencies associated with labor, spare parts and ingredient shortages and other industry-wide supply chain challenges. Benefits from our portfolio simplification and other cost mitigation efforts, however, offset some of these higher costs.

    由於去年秋天收穫的[糟糕]作物,馬鈴薯成本也上漲了。在 2023 財年第二季度的大部分時間裡,我們將繼續意識到這種作物的財務影響,因為我們將出售這種作物生產的最終成品。最後,我們繼續招致與勞動力、備件和成分短缺以及其他全行業供應鏈挑戰相關的更高成本和運營效率低下。然而,我們的投資組合簡化和其他成本降低措施所帶來的好處抵消了其中一些較高的成本。

  • Moving on from cost of sales, our SG&A increased $25 million to $116 million, largely due to higher compensation and benefits expense and expenses related to improving our IT infrastructure, including designing a new ERP system. Equity method earnings from unconsolidated joint ventures in Europe and the U.S. increased nearly $170 million. More than $140 million of the increase was related to the change in unrealized gains from mark-to-market adjustments related to changes in natural gas and electricity derivatives as commodity markets in Europe have experienced significant volatility.

    從銷售成本開始,我們的 SG&A 增加了 2500 萬美元至 1.16 億美元,這主要是由於更高的薪酬和福利費用以及與改進我們的 IT 基礎設施相關的費用,包括設計新的 ERP 系統。歐洲和美國未合併合資企業的權益法收益增加了近 1.7 億美元。超過 1.4 億美元的增長與因歐洲商品市場經歷重大波動而導致的天然氣和電力衍生品變化相關的按市值計價調整的未實現收益變化有關。

  • Another $15 million of the increase relates to a gain recognized in connection with us acquiring an additional 40% interest in our joint venture in Argentina. Excluding these comparability items, as well as other mark-to-market adjustments not associated with natural gas and electricity derivatives, equity earnings increased $13 million. This largely reflects improved results in our joint venture in Europe.

    增加的另外 1500 萬美元與我們在阿根廷的合資企業中獲得額外 40% 的權益有關而確認的收益。剔除這些可比性項目,以及與天然氣和電力衍生品無關的其他按市值計價調整,股本收益增加了 1300 萬美元。這在很大程度上反映了我們在歐洲的合資企業的業績有所改善。

  • In addition, in September, our European joint venture withdrew from its joint venture in Russia after receiving all regulatory approvals. In the prior year quarter, earnings from the Russia joint venture were not material. So putting it all together, adjusted EBITDA, including unconsolidated joint ventures, nearly doubled to $228 million, while adjusted diluted earnings per share more than tripled to $0.75 per share. Strong sales growth and gross margin expansion primarily drove the increases.

    此外,9月,我們的歐洲合資企業在獲得所有監管批准後退出了其在俄羅斯的合資企業。在上一季度,俄羅斯合資企業的收益並不重要。綜上所述,調整後的 EBITDA(包括未合併的合資企業)幾乎翻了一番,達到 2.28 億美元,而調整後的攤薄後每股收益增長了兩倍多,達到每股 0.75 美元。強勁的銷售增長和毛利率擴張主要推動了增長。

  • Moving on to our segments. Sales in our Global segment were up 12% in the quarter. Price/mix was up 14%, reflecting domestic and international pricing actions associated with customer contract renewals, inflation-driven price escalators and higher prices charged for freight. Mix was also positive.

    繼續我們的細分市場。我們全球部門的銷售額在本季度增長了 12%。價格/組合上漲 14%,反映了與客戶續約、通脹驅動的價格自動扶梯和更高的運費價格相關的國內和國際定價行為。混合也是積極的。

  • Overall segment volumes declined 2% as North American volumes fell, primarily due to the timing of shipments to large QSR chain customers, including the effect of lapping a notable limited-time product offering in the prior year quarter. Global's product contribution margin, which is gross profit less advertising and promotion expenses, nearly doubled to $84 million. Favorable price/mix more than offset the impacts of higher manufacturing and distribution costs per pound.

    由於北美銷量下降,整體細分市場銷量下降了 2%,這主要是由於向大型 QSR 連鎖客戶發貨的時間安排,包括在上一季度推出顯著的限時產品的影響。 Global 的產品貢獻率(即毛利潤減去廣告和促銷費用)幾乎翻了一番,達到 8400 萬美元。有利的價格/組合抵消了更高的每磅製造和分銷成本的影響。

  • Sales in our Foodservice segment grew 14%. Price/mix increased 26% as we continued to drive product and freight pricing actions that we announced throughout fiscal 2022 and earlier in the quarter to counter inflation. Sales volumes decreased 12% as casual dining and full-service restaurant traffic softened. While traffic trends progressively softened each month since the war in Ukraine began at the end of February, it began to tick upward in August.

    我們餐飲服務部門的銷售額增長了 14%。由於我們繼續推動我們在整個 2022 財年和本季度早些時候宣布的產品和運費定價行動,以應對通貨膨脹,價格/組合增長了 26%。由於休閒餐飲和全方位服務餐廳客流量疲軟,銷售額下降了 12%。雖然自 2 月底烏克蘭戰爭開始以來,交通趨勢每個月都在逐漸減弱,但在 8 月開始上升。

  • Sales volumes were also affected by the timing of incremental losses of certain low-margin noncommercial business as well as our inability to fully serve demand as a result of constrained production. Foodservice's product contribution margin rose more than 40% to $138 million as favorable price more than offset higher manufacturing and distribution cost per pound and the impact of lower volumes.

    銷量也受到某些低利潤非商業業務的增量虧損時間以及由於生產受限而無法充分滿足需求的影響。 Foodservice 的產品貢獻率增長了 40% 以上,達到 1.38 億美元,因為有利的價格抵消了每磅更高的製造和分銷成本以及銷量下降的影響。

  • In our Retail segment, sales increased 28%. Price/mix was up 32%, reflecting pricing actions across our branded and private label portfolios as well as favorable mix with the sale of more branded products. Volume was down 4%, reflecting incremental losses of certain lower-margin private label products. We'll be lapping the last of that -- lost private label business in the second quarter. Sales volumes were also tempered by our inability to fully serve customer demand due to the constrained production. Retail's product contribution margin more than tripled to $49 million behind pricing actions and favorable mix. This was partially offset by higher manufacturing and distribution cost per pound.

    在我們的零售部門,銷售額增長了 28%。價格/組合上漲了 32%,反映了我們品牌和自有品牌產品組合的定價行為,以及銷售更多品牌產品的有利組合。銷量下降 4%,反映出某些利潤率較低的自有品牌產品的虧損增加。我們將在第二季度結束其中的最後一個 - 失去的自有品牌業務。由於生產受限,我們無法充分滿足客戶需求,也影響了銷量。在定價行動和有利的組合之後,零售的產品邊際貢獻增加了兩倍多,達到 4900 萬美元。這部分被每磅更高的製造和分銷成本所抵消。

  • Moving to our liquidity position and cash flow. We ended the quarter with $485 million of cash and a $1 billion undrawn revolver. While our net debt remained relatively flat at about $2.25 billion, our leverage ratio fell to 2.7x from 3.1x at the end of the fiscal 2022 as earnings grew. We generated more than $190 million of cash from operations, which is up about $30 million versus the prior year quarter, largely due to higher earnings.

    轉向我們的流動性狀況和現金流。我們以 4.85 億美元的現金和 10 億美元的未動用左輪手槍結束了本季度。雖然我們的淨債務保持相對平穩,約為 22.5 億美元,但隨著收益的增長,我們的槓桿率從 2022 財年末的 3.1 倍降至 2.7 倍。我們從運營中產生了超過 1.9 億美元的現金,與去年同期相比增加了約 3000 萬美元,這主要是由於更高的收益。

  • Capital expenditures were about $120 million. That's up about $40 million as we continue to construct new french fry lines in Idaho and China. In addition, we paid about $42 million to acquire the additional 40% interest in our joint venture in Argentina. We now own 90% of that joint venture. We returned $64 million of cash to our shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases and have about $240 million of authorization remaining under our share repurchase program.

    資本支出約為 1.2 億美元。隨著我們繼續在愛達荷州和中國建設新的炸薯條生產線,這增加了約 4000 萬美元。此外,我們還支付了約 4200 萬美元收購了我們在阿根廷合資企業的額外 40% 權益。我們現在擁有該合資企業 90% 的股份。我們以股息和股票回購的形式向股東返還了 6400 萬美元的現金,並且在我們的股票回購計劃下剩餘約 2.4 億美元的授權。

  • Turning to our fiscal 2023 outlook. Our financial targets for the year remain unchanged as we continue to build our operating momentum. While the macro environment remains volatile, we're on track to deliver at the high end of our sales target of $4.7 billion to $4.8 billion with price driving the growth. We'll continue to realize the carryover benefit of product pricing actions in our Foodservice and Retail segments. And in our Global segment, we expect to see the benefit of pricing actions, including pricing structures for contract renewals billed as the year progresses.

    轉向我們的 2023 財年展望。隨著我們繼續建立我們的經營勢頭,我們的年度財務目標保持不變。雖然宏觀環境仍然不穩定,但我們有望實現 47 億至 48 億美元的銷售目標的高端,價格推動增長。我們將繼續在我們的餐飲服務和零售部門實現產品定價行動的結轉收益。在我們的全球部門,我們希望看到定價行動的好處,包括隨著時間的推移而計費的合同續簽定價結構。

  • Forecasting volume continues to remain more difficult due to the near-term volatility in restaurant traffic and demand. As we saw in the first quarter, we believe that consumer behavior during inflationary or recessionary times will continue to affect overall demand as well as our sales channel and product mix, with QSRs and retail outlets benefiting at the expense of casual dining and full-service restaurants. In addition, we expect our sales volumes will be affected by near-term production and throughput constraints as we continue to face disruptions and availability of key product inputs and spare parts.

    由於餐廳客流量和需求的近期波動,預測數量仍然更加困難。正如我們在第一季度看到的那樣,我們認為通貨膨脹或衰退時期的消費者行為將繼續影響整體需求以及我們的銷售渠道和產品組合,QSR 和零售店以休閒餐飲和全方位服務為代價而受益餐館。此外,我們預計我們的銷量將受到近期生產和吞吐量限制的影響,因為我們繼續面臨關鍵產品投入和備件的中斷和可用性。

  • Additionally, while labor and access to shipping containers have improved, we continue to see the impact of shortages. We're on track to deliver at the high end of the range of our earnings target, including adjusted net income of $360 million to $410 million, adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.45 to $2.85, and adjusted EBITDA including unconsolidated joint ventures of $840 million to $910 million. These targets exclude the items impacting comparability that I described earlier.

    此外,雖然勞動力和運輸集裝箱的使用有所改善,但我們繼續看到短缺的影響。我們有望實現盈利目標範圍的高端,包括調整後淨收入 3.6 億美元至 4.1 億美元,調整後稀釋每股收益 2.45 美元至 2.85 美元,調整後 EBITDA 包括未合併合資企業 8.4 億美元至 9.1 億美元。這些目標不包括我之前描述的影響可比性的項目。

  • We expect our earnings increase will be driven primarily by sales growth and gross margin expansion. We continue to expect gross margins during the second half of fiscal '23 that approach our normalized annual rate of 25% to 26%, and we feel good about the 4 key factors underlying this target. First, as Tom noted, we believe the potato crops in our primary growing regions will be at the lower end of the historical average range, and that any effect on our operations and financial performance will be manageable.

    我們預計我們的盈利增長將主要受到銷售增長和毛利率擴張的推動。我們繼續預計 23 財年下半年的毛利率將接近我們 25% 至 26% 的正常化年率,我們對該目標的 4 個關鍵因素感到滿意。首先,正如湯姆所說,我們相信我們主要種植區的馬鈴薯作物將處於歷史平均範圍的低端,並且對我們的運營和財務業績的任何影響都將是可控的。

  • Second, we're pleased with the continued progress in implementing pricing actions to counter cost inflation. Third, we're making steady progress in adding production workers in order to ease labor pressures in our factories. And finally, the availability of domestic rail and trucking assets as well as access to shipping containers continues to improve. While a broad rail strike has likely been averted, we continue to closely monitor the status of discussions with the West Coast Stock Workers Union and the impact of potential work slowdown or stoppage may have on our exports.

    其次,我們對在實施定價行動以應對成本上漲方面取得的持續進展感到高興。第三,我們正在穩步增加生產工人,以緩解工廠的勞動力壓力。最後,國內鐵路和卡車運輸資產的可用性以及集裝箱的使用情況繼續改善。雖然可能避免了廣泛的鐵路罷工,但我們繼續密切關注與西海岸股票工人工會的討論情況以及潛在的工作放緩或停工可能對我們的出口產生的影響。

  • We continue to target SG&A expenses of $475 million to $500 million, which reflects higher compensation and benefits expenses to attract and retain talent, higher spending for our new ERP system and other IT infrastructure upgrades, higher advertising and promotion expenses as we look to return support back to historical levels and overall inflation for third-party services. We continue to expect equity earnings of $25 million to $30 million, excluding items impacting comparability but also expect increased volatility, given the likelihood of a poor crop in Europe as well as possible limitations on natural gas usage that may affect our production.

    我們繼續將 SG&A 費用定為 4.75 億美元至 5 億美元,這反映了吸引和留住人才的更高薪酬和福利費用、我們新的 ERP 系統和其他 IT 基礎設施升級的更高支出、更高的廣告和促銷費用,因為我們希望獲得支持第三方服務恢復到歷史水平和總體通脹水平。我們繼續預計股權收益為 2500 萬至 3000 萬美元,不包括影響可比性的項目,但也預計波動性會增加,因為歐洲可能收成不佳,以及可能影響我們生產的天然氣使用限制。

  • In addition, we believe that the severe inflation outlook for Europe will likely translate into more pressure on restaurant traffic and demand. Our estimates for our other financial targets are unchanged, including: capital expenditures of $475 million to $525 million, excluding acquisitions; interest expense of approximately $115 million; depreciation and amortization expense of about $210 million; and an effective tax rate, excluding items impacting comparability, of about 24%. Now here's Tom for some closing comments.

    此外,我們認為歐洲嚴峻的通脹前景可能會轉化為對餐廳客流量和需求的更大壓力。我們對其他財務目標的估計保持不變,包括:資本支出為 4.75 億美元至 5.25 億美元,不包括收購;大約 1.15 億美元的利息支出;折舊和攤銷費用約為 2.1 億美元;有效稅率(不包括影響可比性的項目)約為 24%。現在是湯姆的一些結束評論。

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Bernadette. Let me quickly sum up by saying we are managing well through this challenging environment and continue to build good operating momentum. We're well positioned to deliver at the upper end of our financial target ranges for the year, and we're making the necessary investments in our production capacity and operating infrastructure to support long-term growth and create value for our shareholders. Thank you for joining us today, and now we're ready to take your questions.

    謝謝,伯納黛特。讓我快速總結一下,我們在這個充滿挑戰的環境中管理得很好,並繼續建立良好的運營勢頭。我們已準備好在今年財務目標範圍的上端實現目標,我們正在對我們的生產能力和運營基礎設施進行必要的投資,以支持長期增長並為我們的股東創造價值。感謝您今天加入我們,現在我們已準備好回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Chris Growe with Stifel.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題將來自 Stifel 的 Chris Growe。

  • Christopher Robert Growe - MD & Analyst

    Christopher Robert Growe - MD & Analyst

  • I just had a quick question for you and -- that was a very strong first quarter performance. Congratulations on that. Obviously, you are looking more towards the higher end of your guidance now for the year. With this strong first quarter and this recovery in the gross margin, it would seem like you could see an even stronger EBITDA performance. I realize it's early in the year.

    我剛剛問了一個簡單的問題,而且第一季度的表現非常強勁。對此表示祝賀。顯然,您現在更傾向於今年的指導方針的高端。憑藉強勁的第一季度和毛利率的回升,您似乎可以看到更強勁的 EBITDA 表現。我意識到現在是年初。

  • But I just want to get a sense of items, maybe like in SG&A, if there's investments you can make there or perhaps even as you start to kind of rebuild your production with better labor and availability and that, if there are some items like that we should keep in mind as we move through the year, that could put a bit of a limit on the EBITDA performance.

    但我只是想了解一下項目,可能就像在 SG&A 中一樣,如果你可以在那裡進行投資,或者甚至當你開始用更好的勞動力和可用性重建你的生產時,如果有一些類似的項目在我們度過這一年時,我們應該記住,這可能會限制 EBITDA 的表現。

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, Chris. It's Tom. I'll just reiterate, we're off to a terrific start this fiscal year. And our focus -- if you think about a year ago, our focus has been rebuilding our margin structure back to pre-pandemic levels. That's the focus of the team and they've done a terrific job. And just in terms of SG&A, and I'll let Bernadette add on to this, we have some elevated spend due to the ERP, a lot of it.

    是的,克里斯。是湯姆。我只是重申一下,我們本財年的開局非常好。我們的重點——如果你想想一年前,我們的重點是把我們的利潤結構重建到大流行前的水平。這是團隊的重點,他們做得非常好。就 SG&A 而言,我會讓 Bernadette 補充一下,由於 ERP,我們有一些增加的支出,其中很多。

  • There's some wages also that has increased our SG&A based on the market conditions we have. But it's really about focusing on the mix, margin management. That's what we've been focused on for the last year when I started talking about it. The team has done a great job executing that. It's -- the volume's a little bit choppy right now, and I think that's going to continue for the balance of this fiscal year, just based on the economic environment we're all operating in and as well as some of the supply chain issues we continue to experience within freight and containers, those kind of things.

    根據我們擁有的市場條件,還有一些工資增加了我們的 SG&A。但這實際上是關於關注組合,利潤管理。這就是去年我開始談論它時我們一直關注的問題。團隊在執行這方面做得很好。這是 - 現在的數量有點波動,我認為這將在本財年的剩餘時間內繼續下去,這取決於我們都在經營的經濟環境以及我們的一些供應鏈問題繼續體驗貨運和集裝箱之類的東西。

  • So it's early. We got to understand how the crop processes through the factories in the next 60 days. And on that note, in Q2, we'll reassess kind of how we're feeling about the year.

    所以還早。在接下來的 60 天內,我們開始了解作物是如何通過工廠加工的。在這一點上,在第二季度,我們將重新評估我們對這一年的感受。

  • Christopher Robert Growe - MD & Analyst

    Christopher Robert Growe - MD & Analyst

  • Okay. Just a follow-up question on your gross margin. Obviously, a much stronger gross margin here in the first quarter than we expected and really more like your historical first quarter gross margin performance. I realize there's a lot going in, in the gross margin today from pricing and cost inflation and the old crop and all that. I just want to get a sense of the factors that are aiding the gross margin performance this quarter. And maybe along with that, just to get a sense of how much these supply chain challenges are still weighing on the gross margin?

    好的。只是關於您的毛利率的後續問題。顯然,第一季度的毛利率比我們預期的要高得多,而且更像您的歷史第一季度毛利率表現。我意識到今天的毛利率有很多,來自定價和成本通脹以及舊作物等等。我只想了解有助於本季度毛利率表現的因素。也許與此同時,只是為了了解這些供應鏈挑戰仍在多大程度上影響毛利率?

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Chris, the main factor, if you think about a year ago, we were at 15% margin. And so it's really focused on pricing through inflation. We have absorbed a tremendous amount of cost inflation in this business, just like everybody else has in the space. So it's really driving pricing to offset inflation. And we're making, obviously, great progress against that.

    是的。克里斯,主要因素,如果你想想一年前,我們的利潤率為 15%。所以它真正專注於通過通貨膨脹定價。我們已經在這項業務中吸收了大量的成本膨脹,就像該領域的其他人一樣。因此,它確實在推動定價以抵消通貨膨脹。顯然,我們在這方面取得了很大進展。

  • We have a lot more to do. It's still -- from an input cost standpoint, we're going to see more inflation come at us in the future. So we're adjusting our pricing architecture to offset that as much as we can and we believe we will. So that's kind of -- that's the driver, Chris.

    我們還有很多事情要做。它仍然 - 從投入成本的角度來看,我們將在未來看到更多的通貨膨脹。因此,我們正在調整我們的定價架構,以盡可能多地抵消這一點,我們相信我們會的。所以這有點——那是司機,克里斯。

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. And we are making steady progress as we add production workers based on some of the actions that we've taken to attract and retain employees while there's still those labor shortages. We are seeing the impact of that and some of the changes we've made to shift schedules and other things, just getting back to your run rates and throughput question.

    是的。我們正在穩步推進,因為我們在勞動力短缺的情況下,根據我們為吸引和留住員工而採取的一些行動增加了生產工人。我們看到了這一點的影響以及我們對輪班時間表和其他事情所做的一些更改,只是回到您的運行率和吞吐量問題。

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. And just one of the big challenges we still have is container issues for our international business, Chris. And it's -- while it's getting better, it's still hindering our ability to ship to some of our international markets in a pretty significant way, which is impacting the overall volume in our Global business unit. The team is working through it as best we can, but it's still challenging from a container standpoint on the West Coast.

    是的。我們仍然面臨的一大挑戰是我們的國際業務的容器問題,克里斯。而且它 - 雖然它正在變得更好,但它仍然以相當重要的方式阻礙我們向我們的一些國際市場發貨的能力,這正在影響我們全球業務部門的整體銷量。該團隊正在盡最大努力解決這個問題,但從西海岸的集裝箱角度來看,這仍然具有挑戰性。

  • Christopher Robert Growe - MD & Analyst

    Christopher Robert Growe - MD & Analyst

  • Okay. That was a lot of good color. I appreciate it.

    好的。那是很多好顏色。我很感激。

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Peter Galbo with Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Peter Galbo。

  • Peter Thomas Galbo - VP & Research Analyst

    Peter Thomas Galbo - VP & Research Analyst

  • Tom, I just wanted to ask actually like more of a technical question, I guess, around the 2022 potato crop. Realizing that yields are down and maybe the sizing is down a bit, but with the quality being good, can you just, I guess, educate us a little bit more on why the quality being above-average or very good kind of helps pull up maybe a down yield year, what that does for you from a manufacturing standpoint?

    湯姆,我想問的實際上更像是一個技術問題,我猜是關於 2022 年馬鈴薯作物的問題。意識到產量下降了,也許尺寸下降了一點,但是質量很好,我猜,你能不能告訴我們為什麼質量高於平均水平或非常好的有助於拉升也許是產量下降的一年,從製造業的角度來看,這對您有什麼影響?

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So the way to think about it is the quality of the potato, as we're manufacturing it or running it through the factories, it will provide good solids and good color and the length is fine, which last year, we had all kinds of issues with the crop. So the -- so set that aside so quality is good. You're going to be able to -- the finished product's going to be more normalized, I'll say.

    是的。所以考慮它的方式是馬鈴薯的質量,當我們製造它或通過工廠運行它時,它會提供良好的固體和良好的顏色,長度也很好,去年,我們有各種各樣的作物問題。所以 - 所以把它放在一邊,這樣質量就很好。你將能夠 - 我會說,成品將更加標準化。

  • The yield impact is literally -- there's just less potatoes on the plant as it grows than what we historically have. So it's just -- you just have less potatoes per acre. And so we're -- I feel great about our ability to procure open potatoes as we have every year. We do it every year. So it's -- while it's not at historical levels, like we said on the call, we will manage through it. We have a great ag team that will help us manage through it and procure the potatoes, and we'll be able to deliver our customers the product they need.

    從字面上看,產量影響是——植物生長時的馬鈴薯數量比我們歷史上的要少。所以它只是 - 你每英畝的土豆更少。所以我們 - 我對我們每年都能採購開放土豆的能力感到非常滿意。我們每年都這樣做。所以它 - 雖然它不在歷史水平,就像我們在電話會議上所說的那樣,我們將通過它來管理。我們擁有一支優秀的農業團隊,可以幫助我們管理並採購土豆,我們將能夠為客戶提供他們需要的產品。

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. And Tom, I would just add on to that. In terms of the quality component being better this year where it was worse last year. Last year, that lower quality really resulted in lower potato utilization, so it required more potatoes to produce the same amount of finished goods. And we're not going to have that issue this year with a better crop in terms of quality. And then potato quality also affects line speed times in our plants. Again, we won't have that issue this year with a better quality crop.

    是的。湯姆,我想補充一下。就質量部分而言,今年比去年更差。去年,較低的質量確實導致馬鈴薯利用率降低,因此需要更多的馬鈴薯來生產相同數量的成品。今年我們不會因為質量更好的作物而出現這個問題。然後馬鈴薯質量也會影響我們工廠的生產線速度。同樣,今年我們不會因為質量更好的作物而出現這個問題。

  • Peter Thomas Galbo - VP & Research Analyst

    Peter Thomas Galbo - VP & Research Analyst

  • Got it. That was going to be my follow-up. And then maybe just as a second question, more of a technical question for modeling purposes. Just can you quantify at all the shipment timing impact on QSRs in the first quarter? Does that shift to the second quarter at all? And then just again, seasonally, I think historically, gross margins tick up from 1Q to 2Q in a normal year. Should we expect some of that normal sequential acceleration into the second quarter?

    知道了。那將是我的後續行動。然後可能只是作為第二個問題,更多的是用於建模目的的技術問題。您能否量化第一季度對 QSR 的所有出貨時間影響?這會轉移到第二季度嗎?然後再一次,季節性地,我認為從歷史上看,毛利率在正常年份從第一季度上升到第二季度。我們是否應該預期到第二季度會出現一些正常的連續加速?

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes, as it relates to our gross margin, we'll continue to see the normal seasonality. And then as it relates to the first question and the impact to the QSR, we don't give certain guidance as it relates to specifics, but essentially, that will flow through in the second quarter in terms of timing, just given the delay in shipments.

    是的,因為它與我們的毛利率有關,我們將繼續看到正常的季節性。然後因為它涉及到第一個問題和對 QSR 的影響,我們沒有給出與細節相關的某些指導,但基本上,這將在第二季度通過時間安排,只是考慮到延遲出貨量。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from Tom Palmer with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tom Palmer。

  • Thomas Hinsdale Palmer - Analyst

    Thomas Hinsdale Palmer - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask on COGS inflation expectations. It sounds like based on Bernadette's prepared remarks that maybe it decelerated just a little bit in the first quarter. Is the assumption that as the year progresses, you see the rate of inflation ease a little bit? Just wondering what's kind of embedded in that.

    我想問一下 COGS 通脹預期。聽起來根據伯納黛特准備好的言論,它可能在第一季度減速了一點。假設隨著時間的推移,您會看到通貨膨脹率有所緩和嗎?只是想知道其中嵌入了什麼。

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. So we did end the quarter with high single-digit cost inflation, including transportation. But then we also had some of the increased costs related to inefficiencies for run rates. So those were the 2 pieces. As it relates to inflation though going forward, although they've come off their recent highs, they still do remain well elevated compared with pre-pandemic levels. And then it also will be impacted going forward by the timing of when some of our hedges drop off for some of our natural gas.

    是的。因此,我們確實以高個位數的成本通脹結束了本季度,包括運輸。但是,我們也有一些與運行率低效相關的成本增加。所以那些是2件。由於它與未來的通脹有關,儘管它們已經脫離了近期的高點,但與大流行前的水平相比,它們仍然保持在很高的水平。然後它也將受到我們的一些對沖對我們的一些天然氣下降的時間的影響。

  • Thomas Hinsdale Palmer - Analyst

    Thomas Hinsdale Palmer - Analyst

  • Okay, understood. And then just maybe get a quick recap of pricing actions at this point. You cited list price increases that flowed through during the first quarter. So I guess presumably, there'll be carryover in the second quarter. From a list price standpoint, is there anything beyond that at this point? Or is kind of the next step-up as we move into the new year and global contracts are adjusted?

    好的,明白了。然後也許可以快速回顧一下此時的定價行為。您引用了第一季度的定價上漲。所以我想大概,第二季度會有結轉。從標價的角度來看,目前還有什麼其他的嗎?或者隨著我們進入新的一年和全球合同的調整,下一步是什麼?

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So the big thing, Tom, is our global contract negotiations are kind of wrapping up for this next fiscal year. Most of those will start flowing through in the back half. And as I said in the remarks, we feel good about where all those ended up. So we'll start seeing -- realizing those in the back half.

    是的。所以重要的是,湯姆,我們的全球合同談判即將在下一個財年結束。其中大部分將在後半部分開始流動。正如我在評論中所說,我們對所有這些最終的結果感到滿意。所以我們將開始看到 - 意識到後半部分的那些。

  • In terms of the other segments, we've been ahead of the curve in terms of the pricing to offset inflation. And we -- as we always do, we'll continue to evaluate based on what we're seeing on our cost structure, evaluating when we go to market and change prices going forward in the Retail and Foodservice segment.

    就其他部分而言,我們在抵消通脹的定價方面一直處於領先地位。而且我們 - 一如既往,我們將繼續根據我們對成本結構的看法進行評估,評估我們何時進入市場並在零售和餐飲服務領域改變價格。

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes, that's right. And then the last price increase that we announced in Foodservice, Retail in July, you'll begin to see more benefit of that in Q2, Q3.

    是的,這是正確的。然後我們在 7 月在餐飲服務零售業宣布的最後一次提價,您將在第二季度和第三季度開始看到更多的好處。

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • You might start to see a little bit of slowdown in transport though, just so you have that. So remember, we've been talking about product pricing here, but transport will start to come off a little bit just as the cost of transport goes down as it -- and most people on the call know that we try to make that as a pass-through as possible. It's -- over time, it tends to be gross profit neutral, but it will be a little bit more volatility on the top line because of that.

    不過,您可能會開始看到運輸速度有所放緩,這樣就可以了。所以請記住,我們在這裡一直在討論產品定價,但是隨著運輸成本的下降,運輸將開始有所下降——大多數參加電話會議的人都知道我們試圖將其作為盡可能通過。它是 - 隨著時間的推移,它往往是毛利潤中性的,但正因為如此,它的收入波動性會更大一些。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Rob Dickerson with Jefferies.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Rob Dickerson。

  • Robert Frederick Dickerson - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Robert Frederick Dickerson - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Maybe just got a followup for the gross margins (inaudible) in the back half that Q1 gross margin, (inaudible).

    也許剛剛對第一季度毛利率後半部分的毛利率(聽不清)進行了跟進(聽不清)。

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Rob, you're breaking up a little bit.

    羅布,你有點分手了。

  • Robert Frederick Dickerson - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Robert Frederick Dickerson - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I'm sorry. Yes, sorry. I was just saying gross margin in the first quarter was obviously impressive, not that far from expectations in the back half. And then it sounds like contract negotiations for the summer in Global gone well. So I guess as we think kind of just to that Q3 time period with some of the incremental pricing coming through, like Tom, what would you consider some of the drivers that might get you at the high end of that gross margin guide in the back half? Maybe some of the drivers to get you to the lower half or to the lower end. It sounds like it's kind of more of the demand side relative to maybe volatility on cost or pricing or anything around the crop.

    對不起。是的,對不起。我只是說第一季度的毛利率顯然令人印象深刻,與後半部分的預期相差不遠。然後聽起來全球夏季的合同談判進展順利。所以我想,當我們想到第三季度的時候,一些增量定價正在通過,比如湯姆,你會考慮一些可能讓你在後面的毛利率指南高端的驅動因素一半?也許一些驅動程序可以將您帶到下半部分或低端。相對於成本或定價或作物周圍任何因素的波動,這聽起來更像是需求方面。

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, Rob. The -- as we've been very consistent, I feel good about where our gross margins are going to progress towards our historical averages in the back half pre pandemic. So that's what our focus is on. And we're off to making good progress against that, obviously. And so I feel confident about us returning back to normalized levels. So I'm not going to talk about high end, low end, all those kind of things, Rob. I just -- it's about making progress and we're doing that as an organization and the team is executing against that.

    是的,羅伯。 - 由於我們一直非常一致,我對我們的毛利率將在大流行前的後半段向歷史平均水平發展的方向感到滿意。所以這就是我們的重點。顯然,我們將在這方面取得良好進展。所以我對我們回到正常水平充滿信心。所以我不打算談論高端,低端,所有這些東西,Rob。我只是 - 這是關於取得進展的,我們作為一個組織正在這樣做,而團隊正在為此執行。

  • Robert Frederick Dickerson - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Robert Frederick Dickerson - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • All right, fair enough. And then just quickly, Tom, I know you said earlier on the call, it sounds like you've been able to secure incremental supply, just given a little of a lower yield on the crop. At this point, kind of given where you stand, is it fair to say that you have plenty of supply, right? You have plenty of potatoes. As you kind of get through the fiscal year, this shouldn't be like an issue or sitting here in March or April, such that the market's all out trying to fight for potatoes in the open market, and that's it.

    好吧,夠公平的。然後很快,湯姆,我知道你早些時候在電話會議上說過,聽起來你已經能夠確保增量供應,只是作物產量略有下降。在這一點上,有點給定你的立場,可以說你有足夠的供應,對吧?你有很多土豆。當你度過這個財政年度時,這不應該成為一個問題,或者在 3 月或 4 月坐在這裡,這樣市場就會全力以赴地在公開市場上爭奪馬鈴薯,僅此而已。

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, Rob, I feel great. We have great partner growers. We work in tandem with them on our needs, and we had a great ag team that has tremendous relationships with our growers. So feel confident that we'll be able to execute against our production plan and sales plan for the year. And we have some things we can do to adjust new crop, old crop. So I feel good about where we're positioned going forward.

    是的,羅伯,我感覺很好。我們有很好的合作夥伴種植者。我們與他們一起滿足我們的需求,我們擁有一支優秀的農業團隊,與我們的種植者有著密切的關係。因此,請相信我們將能夠執行我們當年的生產計劃和銷售計劃。我們可以做一些事情來調整新作物,舊作物。所以我對我們未來的定位感覺很好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的亞當薩繆爾森。

  • Guillermo Huerta Gallego - Analyst

    Guillermo Huerta Gallego - Analyst

  • This is Guillermo stepping in for Adam. I was wondering if you could help us understand a little bit better your underlying assumptions as it relates to your guidance. You reaffirm it now that we have 3 more months. Has anything changed in terms of your underlying price/mix assumptions or volumes?

    這是吉列爾莫接替亞當。我想知道您是否可以幫助我們更好地理解您的基本假設,因為它與您的指導有關。你重申,現在我們還有 3 個月的時間。您的基本價格/組合假設或交易量有什麼變化嗎?

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. Thanks, Adam. No, there's 4 key factors that we've alluded to in our prepared remarks as it relates to our guidance that we've been watching, and that's crop pricing, our run rates and then logistics. And we feel good about where we're at on all of those. And therefore, I think we'll be at the higher end of the range of our earnings targets that we have outlined. So feel good about all 4 of those factors.

    是的。謝謝,亞當。不,我們在準備好的評論中提到了 4 個關鍵因素,因為它與我們一直在關注的指導有關,那就是作物定價、我們的運行率和物流。我們對我們在所有這些方面的表現感覺良好。因此,我認為我們將處於我們概述的盈利目標範圍的高端。所以對所有這四個因素感覺良好。

  • Guillermo Huerta Gallego - Analyst

    Guillermo Huerta Gallego - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And as a follow-up, as it relates to your investment in Argentina, how does it benchmark in terms of profitability versus the rest of the portfolio?

    這很有幫助。作為後續行動,當它與您在阿根廷的投資有關時,它在盈利能力方面與其他投資組合的基準如何?

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, this is Tom. It's right in line with our long-term strategic growth plans. It gives us in-country production capabilities alongside of our -- we have a joint venture down there. And it gives us a footprint in the South American market, which is a huge market and we're under-indexed in terms of share. So -- and it's super cost competitive. So I feel good about our investment. It's right along our strategic long-term plan that we've been executing against for the past 6 years. And I'm excited about it, and it's going to give us a tremendous competitive advantage in that market down there going forward.

    嗯,這是湯姆。這符合我們的長期戰略增長計劃。除了我們之外,它還為我們提供了國內生產能力——我們在那裡有一家合資企業。它讓我們在南美市場佔有一席之地,這是一個巨大的市場,我們的份額被低估了。所以 - 它具有超級成本競爭力。所以我對我們的投資感覺很好。這與我們過去 6 年一直在執行的長期戰略計劃相吻合。我對此感到很興奮,它將為我們在未來的市場中帶來巨大的競爭優勢。

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. And we expect that the return on that expansion to be attractive and in line with our other expansions.

    是的。我們預計該擴展的回報將具有吸引力並與我們的其他擴展保持一致。

  • Guillermo Huerta Gallego - Analyst

    Guillermo Huerta Gallego - Analyst

  • That's very helpful.

    這很有幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And moving on to William Reuter with Bank of America.

    並轉向美國銀行的威廉路透社。

  • William Michael Reuter - MD & Research Analyst

    William Michael Reuter - MD & Research Analyst

  • I just have 2. The first is with the second year of kind of below-average crop yields, has there been any change in the amount of area or land that is being dedicated to the production of potatoes? I'm wondering whether there could be long-term implications if some of the growers aren't making as much money as they historically did.

    我只有 2 個。第一個是第二年的作物產量低於平均水平,用於生產馬鈴薯的面積或土地數量是否有任何變化?我想知道如果一些種植者沒有像以往那樣賺到那麼多錢,是否會產生長期影響。

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • No. I mean -- this is Tom. The acres fluctuate a bit, nothing major. So the acres around our growing areas has been pretty consistent over time. There is some change but it's really not -- has not been material as long as I've been around this business.

    不,我的意思是——這是湯姆。英畝波動有點,沒什麼大不了的。因此,隨著時間的推移,我們種植區周圍的英畝數一直保持一致。有一些變化,但實際上並沒有——只要我一直在這個行業工作,就沒有實質性的變化。

  • William Michael Reuter - MD & Research Analyst

    William Michael Reuter - MD & Research Analyst

  • Great to hear. And then kind of on a related topic, there is some trade press that suggests that some of your contract negotiations in the Columbia Basin are already complete for calendar year '23. Is there anything you can provide there in terms of color?

    很高興聽到。然後在一個相關主題上,有一些貿易媒體表明,你們在哥倫比亞盆地的一些合同談判已經在 23 日曆年完成。在顏色方面你能提供什麼嗎?

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. No, we won't provide any color on that in the next couple of calls as some of those things finalize. As we always do, we'll communicate that on one of these calls in the near future once everything is done.

    是的。不,我們不會在接下來的幾次電話會議中提供任何顏色,因為其中一些事情已經完成。與往常一樣,一旦一切完成,我們將在不久的將來通過其中一個電話進行溝通。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And moving on to Carla Casella with JPMorgan.

    (操作員說明)並繼續與摩根大通一起前往 Carla Casella。

  • Carla Casella - MD & Senior Analyst

    Carla Casella - MD & Senior Analyst

  • I'm wondering, you've been making a lot -- you've been spending a lot of your investing on additional capacity. Can you talk about your -- whether your view towards M&A or further JV investments may change as those facilities are done? Or is that not inhibiting any of your M&A JV investment opportunities?

    我想知道,你已經賺了很多錢——你已經把很多投資花在了額外的產能上。您能否談談您對併購或進一步合資企業投資的看法是否會隨著這些設施的完成而改變?或者這不會抑制您的任何併購合資投資機會?

  • Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas P. Werner - President, CEO & Director

  • This is Tom. Strategically, our investment in expanding capacity has been very consistent as we see the category growth and we think about the next really 2, 3, 4, 5, 7 years as the category continues to grow, even at low single digits, it's a big growth number in terms of overall volume.

    這是湯姆。從戰略上講,我們在擴大產能方面的投資一直非常一致,因為我們看到了品類的增長,我們認為接下來的 2、3、4、5、7 年隨著品類的持續增長,即使是低個位數,這是一個很大的總量的增長數字。

  • So over time, we're going to continue to invest in the business and invest in the growth of the category. In terms of M&A, I've been very consistent since I've been sitting in this chair that we are as active as we can be in pursuing M&A actions. But the timing of those are always hard to predict, but it is absolutely, going forward, part of our growth strategic plan, organic capacity investment and potential M&A as those opportunities present themselves.

    因此,隨著時間的推移,我們將繼續投資於業務並投資於該類別的增長。在併購方面,自從我擔任這一主席以來,我一直非常一致地認為,我們在尋求併購行動方面會盡可能積極。但這些時間總是難以預測,但絕對是,未來,我們的增長戰略計劃、有機產能投資和潛在併購的一部分,因為這些機會本身就出現了。

  • Carla Casella - MD & Senior Analyst

    Carla Casella - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay, great. And then can you -- did you -- I might have missed it. Did you give a leverage target?

    好,太棒了。然後你能 - 你 - 我可能錯過了。您是否給出了槓桿目標?

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. So our leverage target remains the same at 3.5 to 4x. Certainly, we're considerably below that right now. But we maintain that strong balance sheet during these periods of economic volatility and it preserves optionality for M&A.

    是的。因此,我們的槓桿目標保持在 3.5 到 4 倍不變。當然,我們現在遠遠低於這個水平。但我們在這些經濟動盪時期保持強勁的資產負債表,並保留了併購的選擇權。

  • Carla Casella - MD & Senior Analyst

    Carla Casella - MD & Senior Analyst

  • That's great. And then just one last one. On hedging, can you just talk about what you can in our hedging and if your (inaudible) policies are changing there just in light of the current environment?

    那太棒了。然後只是最後一個。關於對沖,您能否談談您在我們的對沖中可以做些什麼,以及您的(聽不清)政策是否會根據當前環境發生變化?

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. Just high level, we do hedge our natural gas and oil that's used in processing our potatoes. Our policies have not changed. We've always had a risk oversight committee that has monitored the markets, and we've entered into those contracts as we've seen appropriate.

    是的。只是高水平,我們確實對沖用於加工土豆的天然氣和石油。我們的政策沒有改變。我們一直有一個風險監督委員會來監控市場,並且我們已經在我們認為合適的時候簽訂了這些合同。

  • Carla Casella - MD & Senior Analyst

    Carla Casella - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Have you said how much you're hedged in for the year?

    你有沒有說你今年有多少對沖?

  • Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

    Bernadette M. Madarieta - Senior VP & CFO

  • We haven't disclosed that.

    我們還沒有透露。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And that does conclude the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the conference back over to Mr. Congbalay for any additional or closing remarks.

    這確實結束了問答環節。我現在將會議轉回給 Congbalay 先生,以獲取任何補充或閉幕詞。

  • Dexter P. Congbalay - VP of IR

    Dexter P. Congbalay - VP of IR

  • Thanks for joining us today. If you want to set up a follow-up call, please e-mail me and we can set up a time either today or in the following days. Thanks again for joining, and I'll talk to you later. Bye.

    感謝您今天加入我們。如果您想安排後續電話,請給我發電子郵件,我們可以安排今天或以後的時間。再次感謝您的加入,我稍後再與您交談。再見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That does conclude today's conference. We do thank you for your participation. Have an excellent day.

    今天的會議到此結束。我們非常感謝您的參與。有一個美好的一天。