西南航空 (LUV) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to today's Southwest Airlines' Second Quarter 2019 Conference Call.

女士們，先生們，歡迎來到今天的西南航空公司 2019 年第二季度電話會議。

My name is Greg, and I'll be moderating today's call.

我叫格雷格，我將主持今天的電話會議。

This call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on southwest.com in the Investor Relations section.

本次通話正在錄音，重播將在 south.com 的“投資者關係”部分提供。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Ryan Martinez, Managing Director of Investor Relations.

在這個時候，我想把電話轉給投資者關係董事總經理 Ryan Martinez 先生。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thanks, Greg, and thank you all for joining us today.

謝謝，格雷格，感謝大家今天加入我們。

We need to cover a few disclaimers before today's comments.

在今天的評論之前，我們需要介紹一些免責聲明。

First, we will be making forward-looking statements based on our current expectation of (inaudible).

首先，我們將根據我們目前對（聽不清）的預期做出前瞻性陳述。

We'll also reference non-GAAP results, which exclude special items, both in our earnings release.

我們還將在我們的收益發布中參考非 GAAP 結果，其中不包括特殊項目。

Also given the ongoing MAX groundings, our current outlook is based on the most recent guidance from Boeing.

同樣考慮到 MAX 的持續停飛，我們目前的展望是基於波音公司的最新指導。

That includes an assumption of regulatory approval of the MAX return to service during fourth quarter 2019.

這包括假設監管機構批准 MAX 在 2019 年第四季度恢復服務。

Any changes to these assumptions could result in additional adjustments to our flight schedule beyond January 5 as well as further aircraft delivery delays, and that could result in additional financial impacts.

對這些假設的任何更改都可能導致我們在 1 月 5 日之後對航班時刻表進行額外調整以及進一步的飛機交付延誤，這可能會導致額外的財務影響。

Please also check our IR website for more detailed information and disclosures.

另請查看我們的 IR 網站以獲取更多詳細信息和披露。

So we've got a great lineup of speakers today, including Mike Van de Ven, our Chief Operating Officer; Tom Nealon, our President; Tammy Romo, our Executive Vice President and CFO.

所以我們今天有很多演講者，包括我們的首席運營官 Mike Van de Ven；我們的總裁湯姆·尼倫； Tammy Romo，我們的執行副總裁兼首席財務官。

And to kick us off, I will turn over the call to our Chairman and CEO, Gary Kelly.

為了讓我們開始，我將把電話轉給我們的董事長兼首席執行官加里·凱利。

Thank you, Ryan.

謝謝你，瑞安。

And thanks, everybody, for joining us for our second quarter earnings call.

感謝大家加入我們的第二季度財報電話會議。

This year turned out to be quite a wild ride.

事實證明，今年是一段瘋狂的旅程。

We had some subplots earlier in the year, but the story is overwhelmed by the MAX grounding.

今年早些時候我們有一些次要情節，但這個故事被 MAX 接地所淹沒。

The good news is we were exceptionally well prepared for the unexpected.

好消息是我們為意外做好了充分的準備。

We are healthier than ever, and that's despite the body blow from the MAX, and we'll get through it, and we will get back on track.

我們比以往任何時候都更健康，儘管 MAX 對身體造成了打擊，但我們會度過難關，我們會重回正軌。

The frustrating thing since our last call is that the MAX grounding has extended much longer than we had anticipated.

自從我們上次打電話以來，令人沮喪的是，MAX 接地的時間比我們預期的要長得多。

Of course that's no surprise now, given that this news was revealed last month.

當然，現在這並不奇怪，因為這個消息是上個月披露的。

Boeing won't have the latest software fix done until September.

波音公司要到 9 月才能完成最新的軟件修復。

And in the meantime, we will be operating a great airline and produce very strong financial results, all without any amounts from a Boeing settlement.

與此同時，我們將經營一家偉大的航空公司，並產生非常強勁的財務業績，所有這些都不需要波音和解的任何金額。

Our people have done a heroic job, and I don't use that word lightly.

我們的人民已經完成了一項英勇的工作，我不會輕易使用這個詞。

And not only are they resilient, they're tough, they are brilliant, they are compassionate, and I want to thank them for a job well done.

他們不僅堅韌，而且堅韌，他們才華橫溢，富有同情心，我要感謝他們出色的工作。

Our frontline employees have truly risen to the occasion, dealing with 20,000 flight cancellations.

我們的前線員工確實挺身而出，處理了 20,000 次航班取消。

But you don't hear a lot about our back office folks, and we have numerous unsung heroes, so I want to sing for them.

但是你很少聽說我們的後台人員，我們有很多無名英雄，所以我想為他們唱歌。

The frontline is at a hard time -- they certainly have a hard time completing their mission without a plan.

前線處於艱難時期——他們當然很難在沒有計劃的情況下完成任務。

And our planners that I'm going to have to rename replanners have done an amazing job, and I would lead that off with network planning, our operations planning, our financial planning groups, just to name a few.

我將不得不重新命名的規劃師做得非常出色，我將通過網絡規劃、我們的運營規劃、我們的財務規劃小組來引領這一切，僅舉幾例。

They have worked grueling hours, they have improvised, and they have really, really delivered.

他們辛苦工作了好幾個小時，他們即興發揮，他們真的，真的交付了。

And I'm very proud of everybody.

我為每個人感到非常自豪。

While the financial results are remarkably strong, strong margins, strong cash flow, revenues, and a really good cost performance, there's a lot of news in the press release.

儘管財務業績非常強勁、利潤率高、現金流量大、收入高，而且成本效益非常好，但新聞稿中有很多新聞。

You're going to get a lot of excellent insights from Mike, Tom and Tammy, but I would like to point out just a few things.

你會從 Mike、Tom 和 Tammy 那裡得到很多出色的見解，但我只想指出一些事情。

Number one, it's really all about the MAX.

第一，這真的都是關於 MAX 的。

That's the only issue that we are dealing with, and of course, it is helpful just to have one thing to be able to focus on.

這是我們正在處理的唯一問題，當然，只關註一件事是有幫助的。

So everything else within the company is rock solid.

因此，公司內部的其他一切都堅如磐石。

Secondly, business is strong.

二是業務強勁。

Second quarter came in as expected.

第二季度如期而至。

We had strong RASM.

我們有強大的RASM。

Third quarter is forecasted up 3% to 5%, which is right where it should be relative to second quarter.

預計第三季度將增長 3% 至 5%，這與第二季度相比應該是正確的。

Thirdly, our cost management is solid.

第三，我們的成本管理紮實。

Taking into account the MAX and the out-of-service aircraft, we are where we expect to be, if not better, for the second, third and -- quarters and in the full year.

考慮到 MAX 和停止服務的飛機，我們在第二、第三和 - 季度和全年中處於預期狀態，如果不是更好的話。

We told you all at the beginning of the year that we were looking at flat CASM-Ex in the second half, and that's where we think we will be taking, again, the MAX into account.

我們在年初告訴大家，我們正在研究下半年的平坦 CASM-Ex，這就是我們認為我們將再次考慮 MAX 的地方。

Fourthly, Newark.

第四，紐瓦克。

Any student of Southwest will quickly understand our approach here, and this is a tactical decision forced by the MAX groundings and the painful cut of 8% of our capacity.

西南航空的任何學生都會很快理解我們在這裡的做法，這是一個由 MAX 基礎和我們痛苦地削減 8% 的產能所迫使的戰術決定。

As a little bit of background, we acquired 18 Newark slot pairs in 2010, and that was a consequence of the United Continental merger, where they were required to divest some slots.

作為背景知識，我們在 2010 年收購了 18 個紐瓦克老虎機對，這是聯合大陸航空合併的結果，他們被要求剝離一些老虎機。

So we did that deal in about 24 hours.

所以我們在大約 24 小時內完成了這筆交易。

At that time, we had virtually no presence at LaGuardia, and in fact had only been there for about a year.

那時，我們在拉瓜迪亞幾乎沒有任何存在，實際上只在那里呆了大約一年。

On the LaGuardia side of things, in 2011, we acquired more slots at LaGuardia with our AirTran acquisition.

在拉瓜迪亞方面，2011 年，我們通過收購 AirTran 在拉瓜迪亞獲得了更多席位。

In 2013, we acquired yet again more slots from the divestiture caused by the U.S. Airways and American merger.

2013 年，我們再次從美國航空和美國航空合併造成的剝離中獲得了更多的航班。

So we find ourselves with a significantly larger presence at LaGuardia than we had contemplated back in 2010 when we went into Newark.

因此，我們發現自己在拉瓜迪亞的存在比我們在 2010 年進入紐瓦克時的預期要大得多。

We also find ourselves in a magnificent facility, which is certainly significantly better than what we started with in 2009.

我們還發現自己處於一個宏偉的設施中，這肯定比我們在 2009 年開始時的設施要好得多。

So we currently offer 37 daily departures from LaGuardia.

因此，我們目前每天提供 37 趟從拉瓜迪亞出發的航班。

That will be as of October.

那將是截至 10 月。

New York is a huge market, but for us, it is a destination market.

紐約是一個巨大的市場，但對我們來說，它是一個目的地市場。

Given our relatively small position at Newark and LaGuardia and our inability to add any meaningful number of flights to these market, it makes sense for us to consolidate our New York City flying into one airport.

鑑於我們在紐瓦克和拉瓜迪亞的位置相對較小，而且我們無法為這些市場增加任何有意義的航班數量，我們將紐約市的航班整合到一個機場是有意義的。

LaGuardia is the choice for the vast majority of our New York City-bound customers.

LaGuardia 是我們絕大多數前往紐約市的客戶的選擇。

And it's not out of character for us.

這對我們來說並不是不合時宜的。

We consolidated our operations in a couple of Ohio locations in 2017.

2017 年，我們在俄亥俄州的幾個地點整合了我們的業務。

We consolidated Flint, Michigan into Detroit in 2018.

2018 年，我們將密歇根州弗林特市併入底特律。

And then with larger markets like Chicago, Houston, Dallas, we served one airport.

然後在芝加哥、休斯頓、達拉斯等更大的市場中，我們為一個機場提供服務。

Newark underperforms financially.

紐瓦克在財務上表現不佳。

And to offset our reduction in service there, we'll be able to add seats at LaGuardia and be more productive with a superior financial result.

為了抵消我們在那裡服務的減少，我們將能夠在拉瓜迪亞增加座位，並通過卓越的財務結果提高生產力。

So that's what's happening with Newark.

這就是紐瓦克正在發生的事情。

The other thing I could add is that as to the timing, it's very straightforward.

我可以補充的另一件事是，關於時間安排，它非常簡單。

We need the airplanes.

我們需要飛機。

We can't afford in this highly competitive environment, where our capacity overall is cut to have underperforming assets, which leads to my fifth point, which is Hawaii.

在這個競爭激烈的環境中，我們承受不起，我們的整體產能被削減以擁有表現不佳的資產，這導致了我的第五點，即夏威夷。

We'll be resuming our expansion without having to wait on the MAX any further and as we described in the press release.

正如我們在新聞稿中所描述的那樣，我們將繼續我們的擴張，而無需再等待 MAX。

Adding Hawaii and quickly becoming relevant is strategic for us, and this move better supports execution of that strategy.

加入夏威夷並迅速變得相關對我們來說具有戰略意義，而這一舉措更好地支持了該戰略的執行。

So to be clear, we aren't backing off of New York City with this move, but we are accelerating our growth in California and Hawaii.

因此，需要明確的是，我們並沒有因為這一舉措而退出紐約市，但我們正在加速我們在加利福尼亞和夏威夷的發展。

So those are the high points.

所以這些是高點。

And to kick us off with more details and better insights, I'm going to turn the call over to, first, our Chief Operating Officer, Mr. Mike Van de Ven.

為了讓我們開始了解更多細節和更好的見解，我將首先將電話轉給我們的首席運營官 Mike Van de Ven 先生。

Well, thanks, Gary.

好吧，謝謝，加里。

I want to start just by reiterating what Gary said about our people.

我想首先重申加里對我們人民的評價。

They are indeed resilient, and they make this company great by taking care of our customers, our operations and each other.

他們確實很有彈性，他們通過照顧我們的客戶、我們的運營和彼此使這家公司變得偉大。

And I am immensely thankful for their efforts.

我非常感謝他們的努力。

Well, in an environment where we have 34 MAX aircraft out of service, our performance for the quarter, I believe, was very good.

好吧，在我們有 34 架 MAX 飛機停運的環境中，我相信我們本季度的表現非常好。

Most importantly, we took very good care of our customers.

最重要的是，我們非常照顧我們的客戶。

First, we used all of our spare aircraft to cover any scheduled MAX flying through June 7. We then reaccommodated the remaining impacted customers to other flights where possible.

首先，我們使用所有備用飛機覆蓋 6 月 7 日之前的所有預定 MAX 航班。然後，我們盡可能將其餘受影響的客戶重新安排到其他航班。

So we ran an all-time quarterly record load factor of 86.4%.

因此，我們創下了 86.4% 的歷史季度客流量記錄。

And we did that without any spare aircraft from April 1 to June 7. And just to state the obvious, spares are important.

從 4 月 1 日到 6 月 7 日，我們在沒有任何備用飛機的情況下做到了這一點。而且很明顯，備用飛機很重要。

They protect against unexpected events, like the unforecasted hail event we had in Denver on May 28.

它們可以防止意外事件，例如我們 5 月 28 日在丹佛發生的意外冰雹事件。

And that took 24 aircraft out of service for a period of up to 2 weeks in a time we were already without spares.

在我們已經沒有備件的情況下，這使 24 架飛機停止服務長達 2 週。

So in that kind of environment with no margin for recovery for any unexpected events like that, our people found a way to get 85% of our customers to their destinations within 30 minutes per scheduled arrival time.

因此，在那種無法為此類意外事件恢復餘地的環境中，我們的員工找到了一種方法，可以讓 85% 的客戶在每個預定到達時間的 30 分鐘內到達目的地。

Through aircraft swaps, crew changes, extending the operating day, just whatever it took.

通過飛機調換、機組人員更換、延長運營日，不惜一切代價。

And just as a reminder, we schedule our operations with less block and turn time than any other carrier in the industry to begin with.

提醒一下，與業內任何其他運營商相比，我們一開始就以更少的阻塞和周轉時間來安排我們的運營。

We carried 99.5% of the checked bags on the flights they were checked on.

我們在托運行李的航班上攜帶了 99.5% 的托運行李。

We led all marketing carriers with the lowest DOT customer complaint ratio, and our Net Promoter Score was still industry-leading at about 59% for the quarter.

我們以最低的 DOT 客戶投訴率領先所有營銷運營商，並且我們的淨推薦值在本季度仍處於行業領先地位，約為 59%。

Now all those numbers were down a bit from last year, but given the impacts of the MAX grounding, to have our overall operations results still in the upper tier of the industry is really a testament to the people of Southwest Airlines.

現在所有這些數字都比去年有所下降，但考慮到 MAX 停飛的影響，我們的整體運營業績仍處於行業領先水平，這確實是西南航空公司人民的證明。

Going into the third quarter in the peak summer travel month, we are focused on continuing to improve all aspects of our operational liability.

進入夏季旅遊高峰月的第三季度，我們專注於繼續改善我們運營責任的各個方面。

So we've operated with the appropriate spare levels beginning in June 8 and we're going to carry that throughout the year.

因此，我們從 6 月 8 日開始以適當的備用水平運行，我們將全年進行。

And we're already seeing improvements in the reliability of our service.

我們已經看到我們服務的可靠性有所提高。

So our on-time performance, which was really the most significantly impacted item, has rebounded nicely since adding back the spares.

因此，我們的準時性能確實是受影響最大的項目，自從添加備件以來，它已經很好地反彈。

We finished the month of June fourth place in the industry with respect to marketing carriers, and we expect to finish July either third or fourth.

在營銷運營商方面，我們在 6 月份完成了行業第四名，我們預計將在 7 月份完成第三或第四名。

And of course, one of the carriers ahead of us is Hawaiian, and they benefit by a larger percentage of their network being interisland service in Hawaii.

當然，我們前面的航空公司之一是夏威夷航空公司，他們受益於夏威夷島間服務網絡的更大比例。

So in terms of delivering our product in a reliable and a hospitable manner, I'm very pleased with our performance thus far.

因此，在以可靠和熱情好客的方式交付我們的產品方面，我對我們迄今為止的表現感到非常滿意。

Turning to the MAX.

轉向MAX。

While the operational challenges are manageable, they do grow in complexity as the groundings extend.

雖然運營挑戰是可控的，但隨著基礎的擴展，它們的複雜性確實會增加。

So Boeing, as Gary mentioned, still has work they must complete.

因此，正如加里所提到的，波音公司仍有他們必須完成的工作。

The FAA must review and improve that work before granting regulatory approval of the return to MAX to service, and we are in continued conversations with Boeing and the FAA.

FAA 必須在批准監管機構批准 MAX 恢復服務之前審查和改進這項工作，我們正在與波音和 FAA 繼續進行對話。

And as Ryan said earlier, we are dependent on them for a timeline to return the MAX to service.

正如瑞安之前所說，我們依賴他們來確定讓 MAX 重新投入使用的時間表。

As we mentioned in the press release, we're in the process of removing all MAX aircraft from service through January 5. So I'll walk you through a high level outline of our approach to reintroducing the MAX to our regularly scheduled service on January 6.

正如我們在新聞稿中提到的，我們正在將所有 MAX 飛機從服務中移除，直到 1 月 5 日。因此，我將向您簡要介紹我們在 1 月將 MAX 重新引入我們的定期服務的方法6.

But before I start with that, just for context, when the MAX grounding is lifted, we're going to have 3 groups of aircraft to address, and each of them have a unique process.

但在我開始之前，就上下文而言，當 MAX 接地解除時，我們將有 3 組飛機需要處理，每組都有一個獨特的過程。

So first, we have a 34 aircraft, MAX aircraft, that Southwest has in long-term storage in Victorville, California.

首先，我們有 34 架 MAX 飛機，西南航空長期存放在加利福尼亞州維克多維爾。

Second, we're going to have a group of aircraft that Boeing is storing that have not yet been through the delivery process to Southwest Airlines.

其次，我們將有一批波音公司正在存儲的飛機尚未完成交付給西南航空公司的過程。

So we don't own those airplanes, and they're not on our operating certificates.

所以我們不擁有這些飛機，它們不在我們的運營證書上。

And then, lastly, there will be aircraft coming from the Boeing production line after the grounding is lifted, which we will want to except as delivered in the normal course of business.

然後，最後，在解除停飛後，波音生產線將有飛機出來，我們希望除非在正常業務過程中交付。

The first step in the process, regardless of the grouping, is instruction from the FAA as to the specific requirements that will be mandated to make the fleet operational.

無論分組如何，該過程的第一步都是來自 FAA 的指令，說明將強制執行使機隊運行的具體要求。

That will likely include software uploads and/or other technical requirements to the aircraft, along with some required pilot training.

這可能包括對飛機的軟件上傳和/或其他技術要求，以及一些必需的飛行員培訓。

Now we're going to assume that the pilot training requirements will not include additional simulator training.

現在我們將假設飛行員培訓要求不包括額外的模擬器培訓。

We have an agreed-upon 30-day time frame with our pilot union to complete the expected computer-based training, and we plan to -- we plan to time the work to bring the aircraft back into the operational fleet to correspond to the end of our pilot training period so that every pilot is prepared to fly every aircraft in the fleet.

我們與我們的飛行員工會商定了 30 天的時間框架，以完成預期的基於計算機的培訓，我們計劃 - 我們計劃安排將飛機帶回運營機隊的工作時間，以對應結束我們的飛行員培訓期，以便每位飛行員都準備好駕駛機隊中的每架飛機。

In addition to those mandated activities, there will be additional maintenance procedures to transition the aircraft from long-term storage into an operational readiness state.

除了這些規定的活動外，還將有額外的維護程序將飛機從長期存放狀態轉變為運行準備狀態。

And at this point, we believe that those activities and approvals could take 1 to 2 months to complete for the Victorville aircraft, and that we could intake up to 3 Boeing storage aircraft per week once they're ready to begin their storage deliveries.

在這一點上，我們認為維克多維爾飛機的這些活動和批准可能需要 1 到 2 個月才能完成，一旦它們準備好開始存儲交付，我們每週最多可以接收 3 架波音存儲飛機。

So like I mentioned, we plan to take production aircraft as they're available for delivery.

所以就像我提到的那樣，我們計劃在可以交付的情況下使用量產飛機。

Our delivery schedule with Boeing continues to evolve as their production and their schedules change.

我們與波音的交付時間表隨著他們的生產和時間表的變化而不斷發展。

And we expect the majority of our 41 contracted deliveries for the remainder of this year, which by the way would have been in the Boeing storage grouping, and will likely be moving into 2020.

我們預計今年剩餘時間我們的 41 份合同交付中的大部分，順便說一句，這些交付將在波音存儲集團中，並且很可能會進入 2020 年。

Assuming regulatory approval to return the MAX to service by early November, our baseline plan will be to control the process so we can provide the network at least 30 MAX aircraft to the operational fleet by January 6 schedule, and then we would ramp from there in a controlled fashion, depending on the delivery schedules.

假設監管部門批准在 11 月初之前讓 MAX 恢復服務，我們的基線計劃將是控制流程，以便我們可以在 1 月 6 日之前為運營機隊提供網絡至少 30 架 MAX 飛機，然後我們將從那裡開始受控方式，具體取決於交付時間表。

So that approach is intended to balance as best we can aircraft availability with customer demand in early 2020, then match the crew staffing to the aircraft availability.

因此，這種方法旨在在 2020 年初盡可能平衡飛機可用性與客戶需求，然後將機組人員配備與飛機可用性相匹配。

In terms of the pilot staffing, given the removal of the MAX line through January 5, we're going to defer our October pilot new hire class and the associated captain upgrade class until March or April next year.

在飛行員人員配置方面，鑑於 MAX 航線將在 1 月 5 日之前拆除，我們將把 10 月的飛行員新員工課程和相關的機長升級課程推遲到明年 3 月或 4 月。

And so while there is some cost savings in 2019 from deferring those classes, the primary driver was to better match flight crews with their flying needs to give them more productive schedules.

因此，雖然 2019 年推遲這些課程可以節省一些成本，但主要驅動因素是讓機組人員更好地滿足他們的飛行需求，從而為他們提供更有效率的時間表。

In closing, I'm very proud of our people and our performance this quarter.

最後，我為我們的員工和本季度的表現感到非常自豪。

And as it relates to the MAX, we have a plan to remove MAX flying for the remainder of the year.

由於它與 MAX 有關，我們計劃在今年剩餘時間內取消 MAX 飛行。

We have the detailed plans for the ungrounding of the fleet once that occurs.

一旦發生這種情況，我們已經制定了解除機隊停飛的詳細計劃。

We have an idea of how we can resume taking deliveries from Boeing, and we're ready to make adjustments to those plans if we need to.

我們對如何恢復波音公司的交付有了一個想法，如果需要，我們準備對這些計劃進行調整。

So just as our people are doing this summer, we really want to be prepared to provide exceptional customer service to our customers for the holidays later this year.

因此，正如我們的員工在今年夏天所做的那樣，我們真的希望為今年晚些時候的假期為我們的客戶提供卓越的客戶服務做好準備。

So we remain focused on running a safe, reliable, and on time and an enjoyable operation.

因此，我們始終專注於運行安全、可靠、準時和愉快的運營。

And I really think we've got the best team in the industry to do just that.

我真的認為我們擁有業內最好的團隊來做到這一點。

And with that, I will turn it over to Tom.

有了這個，我會把它交給湯姆。

Okay.

好的。

Well, thanks, Mike.

好吧，謝謝，邁克。

Good morning -- or I guess, good afternoon, everybody.

早上好——或者我猜，大家下午好。

So as Gary and Mike has said, this has been a challenging quarter.

正如加里和邁克所說，這是一個充滿挑戰的季度。

But I think in spite of the issues we've had to deal with, our results were very strong.

但我認為，儘管我們不得不處理這些問題，但我們的結果非常強勁。

We produced record passenger revenues, record operating revenues in the quarter, along with a record load factor of 86.4%, which I think by any measure is a pretty impressive set of results, especially considering what we're going through.

我們在本季度創造了創紀錄的客運收入、創紀錄的營業收入，以及創紀錄的 86.4% 的載客率，我認為無論以何種標準衡量，這都是一組令人印象深刻的結果，尤其是考慮到我們正在經歷的事情。

I think what's equally impressive, just to reemphasize what Mike said, was simply the quality of the operation in spite of the MAX cancellations.

我認為同樣令人印象深刻的，只是為了再次強調邁克所說的話，儘管取消了 MAX，但操作的質量很簡單。

Our on-time performance was strong, our customer satisfaction scores, our brand scores remain at the very top of the industry.

我們的準時表現非常出色，我們的客戶滿意度得分、我們的品牌得分保持在行業的最高水平。

I know that you guys hear this a lot and you may think it's a throwaway line, but these results truly are because of our people.

我知道你們經常聽到這句話，你可能認為這是一句廢話，但這些結果確實是因為我們的人。

Mike, and Gary, and I, have spent a lot of time in the stations this past quarter.

上個季度，邁克、加里和我在車站呆了很多時間。

And I can tell you the morale is high, and the focus of our people is very clear, eyes on running a great operation and taking care of our customers.

我可以告訴你，士氣高漲，我們員工的重點非常明確，著眼於經營一個偉大的業務並照顧我們的客戶。

And you can see it in our metrics, and you can see it, and read it, and here it in the feedback from our customers.

你可以在我們的指標中看到它，你可以看到它，閱讀它，並在我們客戶的反饋中看到它。

It's pretty amazing.

這真是太神奇了。

From a schedule perspective, we've been very focused on maintaining the strength of our network, albeit with significantly fewer aircraft than we've planned.

從時間表的角度來看，我們一直非常專注於保持我們網絡的實力，儘管飛機數量比我們計劃的要少得多。

Our network team, as Gary has already alluded to, has done an absolutely incredible job of adjusting and republishing our schedules.

正如 Gary 已經提到的，我們的網絡團隊在調整和重新發布我們的日程安排方面做得非常出色。

And our revenue management team has done an equally incredible job of managing the revenue environments.

我們的收入管理團隊在管理收入環境方面做得同樣出色。

And there's no doubt that we're continuing to benefit the revenue management capabilities that were enabled by our new reservation system.

毫無疑問，我們將繼續受益於我們的新預訂系統啟用的收入管理功能。

Overall, I'm very pleased with our second quarter RASM result of 6.8% year-over-year growth, which is right in line with the improved guidance that we provided in our June 19 investor update.

總體而言，我對我們第二季度 RASM 同比增長 6.8% 的結果感到非常滿意，這與我們在 6 月 19 日投資者更新中提供的改進指導一致。

And just as a reminder, on the April 25 earnings call, we expected Q2 RASM to increase in the range of 5.5% to 7.5%.

提醒一下，在 4 月 25 日的財報電話會議上，我們預計第二季度的 RASM 將在 5.5% 至 7.5% 的範圍內增長。

And as you might recall, there were several key things that we entered in that original guidance.

您可能還記得，我們在原始指南中輸入了幾項關鍵內容。

Just a quick summary of that.

只是一個快速的總結。

First, we were expecting an improvement in leisure demand trends as compared to the first quarter.

首先，與第一季度相比，我們預計休閒需求趨勢會有所改善。

We also had expectations of solid demand for both leisure and business travel, and both of these held true throughout the second quarter, and actually improved each month during the quarter.

我們還對休閒和商務旅行的需求保持穩定的預期，這兩者在整個第二季度都是如此，並且在該季度每個月實際上都在改善。

So we're pleased with that.

所以我們對此很滿意。

And second, we were expecting a strong yield environment, especially with close-in fares, which we did, in fact, experience.

其次，我們期待一個強勁的收益環境，尤其是在近距離票價的情況下，我們確實經歷過這種情況。

And we actually saw a slight improvement in our base business as we progressed through the second quarter as supported by our system-wide fare increase in mid-May.

在 5 月中旬全系統票價上漲的支持下，隨著第二季度的推進，我們的基礎業務實際上略有改善。

Third, we are expecting a 1 point year-over-year RASM benefit from our reservation system, which occurred as expected.

第三，我們預計 RASM 將從我們的預訂系統中獲得 1 點的同比收益，這正如預期的那樣。

Next, we are expecting a 1 point year-over-year RASM benefit in the lower capacity, due to the removal of MAX flights in the schedules.

接下來，由於取消了時間表中的 MAX 航班，我們預計較低運力的 RASM 收益同比增長 1 個百分點。

This action ended up being about 2 points.

這個動作最終得到了大約 2 分。

Fifth, we had 3 points of year-over-year tailwinds from second quarter 2018 items, including Flight 1380 as well as last year's suboptimal flight schedule.

第五，與 2018 年第二季度相比，我們有 3 個同比順風，包括 1380 航班以及去年的次優航班時刻表。

And finally, no surprise, we had a half point year-over-year benefit in the Easter shift out of Q1.

最後，毫不奇怪，我們在第一季度的複活節轉移中獲得了半個百分點的同比收益。

So these 6 drivers net out for a 6.8% RASM growth for Q2, which again, is a very strong performance, especially considering the challenges.

因此，這 6 個驅動因素在第二季度實現了 6.8% 的 RASM 增長，這又是一個非常強勁的表現，尤其是考慮到挑戰。

Both our domestic and international businesses performed well in the quarter, with international RASM performance being especially robust, in particular in our Mexican beach markets.

我們的國內和國際業務在本季度均表現良好，國際 RASM 表現尤為強勁，尤其是在我們的墨西哥海灘市場。

Obviously, Q2 was not without execution risk.

顯然，第二季度並非沒有執行風險。

Our network planning team has the challenge of removing MAX flying from Q2, and we had to manually work our way through March and republish our April and our June base schedules in such a way that best maintains the integrity of our network.

我們的網絡規劃團隊面臨著從第二季度移除 MAX 飛行的挑戰，我們不得不手動工作到 3 月，並重新發布我們的 4 月和 6 月基本時間表，以最好地保持我們網絡的完整性。

Our revenue management team had to manage through a bit more due to grounding of the MAX, which reduced our higher-yielding inventory, due to past -- passenger reaccommodations, in particular with close-in inventory during April.

由於 MAX 的停飛，我們的收入管理團隊不得不進行更多的管理，這減少了我們的高收益庫存，原因是過去的乘客重新住宿，特別是 4 月份的近距離庫存。

But the impact also carried them through the first half of May.

但這種影響也讓他們度過了 5 月上半月。

So we had a lot of moving parts to manage to throughout the quarter, and I think the commercial team's execution was simply extraordinary.

因此，我們在整個季度都有很多活動要處理，我認為商業團隊的執行簡直是非凡的。

They were incredibly focused, and the result was that they were able to produce flight schedules that mitigated as much risk as possible.

他們非常專注，結果是他們能夠制定盡可能降低風險的航班時刻表。

And these schedules work for our customers, but they also work for Southwest, both operationally and commercially.

這些時間表適用於我們的客戶，但它們也適用於西南航空，無論是運營上還是商業上。

Our ancillary products also performed very well in Q2 with other revenue being up 11% year-over-year.

我們的輔助產品在第二季度也表現出色，其他收入同比增長 11%。

And we continue to have a lot of success with our EarlyBird variable pricing product, which we implemented last fall, and which was enabled by our new reservation system.

我們在去年秋天實施的 EarlyBird 可變定價產品繼續取得巨大成功，並由我們的新預訂系統啟用。

We also launched a new business-oriented credit card last month as we planned, which is targeted at our small to medium-size business customers.

上個月，我們還按計劃推出了一款新的商業信用卡，主要針對我們的中小型企業客戶。

And so far, the early results are very, very strong.

到目前為止，早期的結果非常非常強大。

We had another extraordinarily strong performance from our Rapid Rewards program this past quarter.

在上個季度，我們的快速獎勵計劃又取得了非常強勁的表現。

Our total loyalty program revenue grew 15% in the second quarter, and we continue to have strong credit card acquisitions.

我們的忠誠度計劃總收入在第二季度增長了 15%，並且我們繼續擁有強勁的信用卡收購。

And our credit card retention rates also continue to be very high.

我們的信用卡保留率也繼續很高。

So we're obviously very pleased with the performance of our Rapid Rewards program, which by the way continues to be recognized most recently as program of the year by the Freddie Awards for best loyalty card, best airline redemption building, and best customer service.

因此，我們顯然對我們的快速獎勵計劃的表現非常滿意，順便說一句，該計劃最近繼續被房地美獎評為最佳忠誠卡、最佳航空公司兌換建設和最佳客戶服務的年度計劃。

The economics of the program are very, very strong.

該計劃的經濟性非常非常強大。

The customer benefits are best-in-class, and we see a tremendous number of opportunities to significantly grow the Rapid Rewards program going forward.

客戶的利益是一流的，我們看到了大量的機會來顯著發展快速獎勵計劃。

So that's it for Q2.

這就是第二季度的內容。

So let's talk about Q3.

那麼讓我們談談Q3。

So our third quarter business trends continue to be very strong as well.

因此，我們第三季度的業務趨勢也繼續非常強勁。

We continue to see healthy leisure and business travel demand across the booking curve and a positive year-over-year yield trend thus far.

我們繼續看到整個預訂曲線上的休閒和商務旅行需求健康，以及迄今為止的積極同比收益率趨勢。

And we're expecting a strong Q3 RASM performance in the range of up 3% to 5%.

我們預計第三季度 RASM 的強勁表現將在 3% 至 5% 的範圍內增長。

And just as a reminder, the MAX aircraft are already on the schedule through the entire third quarter, which means we don't have the same closed-in reaccommodation challenges we had coming into Q2.

提醒一下，MAX 飛機在整個第三季度都已按計劃進行，這意味著我們沒有像第二季度那樣面臨同樣的封閉式重新安置挑戰。

Our Q3 RASM outlook does have a 1 point benefit due to headwinds from Q3 2018, which is made up of 0.5 point from 1380 and 0.5 point again from our suboptimal schedule from last year.

由於 2018 年第三季度的不利因素，我們的第三季度 RASM 前景確實有 1 個百分點的收益，其中包括從 1380 年以來的 0.5 個百分點和從去年我們的次優時間表中的 0.5 個百分點。

Similar to the second quarter, we are estimating a year-over-year RASM benefit in Q3 of about 2 points from the reduced capacity due to the MAX grounding, and we expect a half point year-over-year RASM benefit from our new reservation system.

與第二季度類似，我們估計第三季度由於 MAX 接地導致產能減少，RASM 收益同比增長約 2 個百分點，我們預計新預訂帶來的 RASM 收益同比增長半個百分點系統。

We are seeing a slight negative impact to Rapid Reward redemptions and ancillary revenue as a result of MAX-related flight cancellations, but we still expect another strong year-over-year performance of both categories.

由於與 MAX 相關的航班取消，我們看到快速獎勵兌換和輔助收入受到輕微的負面影響，但我們仍然預計這兩個類別的同比表現將再次強勁。

Turning to Hawaii.

轉向夏威夷。

Well, I can tell you this.

好吧，我可以告訴你這個。

Hawaii is off to a fantastic start.

夏威夷有了一個美妙的開始。

And although we're early on in our expansion, our results so far are exceeding our expectations in every category.

儘管我們處於擴張的早期階段，但到目前為止，我們在每個類別中的結果都超出了我們的預期。

So we're now up to 14 daily flights, 6 in California, 2 Hawaii, and 8 interisland round-trip flights.

因此，我們現在每天有 14 個航班，其中加利福尼亞有 6 個，夏威夷有 2 個，島際往返航班有 8 個。

Demand for our service to Hawaii is very, very strong, and our load factors are far exceeding our system average.

我們飛往夏威夷的服務需求非常非常強勁，我們的載客率遠遠超過我們的系統平均水平。

Our Hawaii in-flight product and customer experience is performing extremely well with our Net Promoter Scores above our system average, which as you know, were also very high.

我們的夏威夷機上產品和客戶體驗表現非常出色，我們的淨推薦值高於我們的系統平均水平，如您所知，這也非常高。

Demand for our interisland service is also very strong, and is made up of a very strong mix of local customers.

對我們的島際服務的需求也非常強勁，並且由非常強大的本地客戶組合組成。

And the brand and customer experience for us for the interisland service is actually above our total system performance, which again leads the industry.

而且島際服務對我們的品牌和客戶體驗實際上高於我們的整體系統性能，再次引領行業。

And our fares are where we'd expect them to be at this point.

我們的票價是我們目前期望的票價。

It is fair to say that we're seeing the Southwest Effect in the markets that we're serving, and this is obviously enabled by our low-cost structure.

公平地說，我們正在服務的市場中看到西南效應，這顯然是由我們的低成本結構實現的。

Now regarding the eventual transition of Hawaii flight to MAX, well, we're obviously very eager to realize the cost efficiencies.

現在關於夏威夷航班最終過渡到 MAX，我們顯然非常渴望實現成本效益。

But we can fly the 800 NGs to Hawaii as long as we need to while the MAX is grounded.

但是我們可以在 MAX 停飛時將 800 NG 飛機飛到夏威夷。

As we announced this morning, we have more Hawaii service plan to go on sale soon, so we'll talk about that more later.

正如我們今天早上宣布的那樣，我們有更多夏威夷服務計劃即將上市，所以我們稍後再談。

Now looking forward, our commercial team will continue to be very proactive in managing any additional MAX flight cancellations and network adjustments through the end of the year.

現在展望未來，我們的商業團隊將繼續非常積極地管理任何額外的 MAX 航班取消和網絡調整，直至今年年底。

And as you'd expect, we'll continue to be very focused on our execution.

正如您所期望的那樣，我們將繼續非常專注於我們的執行。

And our 2019 RASM outlook continues to be year-over-year growth in excess of 3%.

我們對 2019 年 RASM 的展望仍然是同比增長超過 3%。

Now regarding the capacity impact to Q4 RASM, we'll be at a point where we are approaching a 75 MAX aircraft deficit by year-end, and as such, the estimated revenue penalty from second quarter grows sequentially into the third quarter and grows further in the fourth quarter.

現在關於對第四季度 RASM 的產能影響，我們將在年底前接近 75 架 MAX 飛機的赤字，因此，從第二季度到第三季度的估計收入損失將連續增長並進一步增長在第四季度。

So when combined with the normal seasonality in the peak versus off-peak nature of Q4 and the complexity of the holiday schedule, we simply still have work to do over the next month or so.

因此，結合第四季度高峰與非高峰性質的正常季節性以及假期安排的複雜性，我們在接下來的一個月左右仍有工作要做。

So it's too early for us to give any guidance or perspective on the impact to our fourth quarter RASM.

因此，我們現在就對第四季度 RASM 的影響提供任何指導或觀點還為時過早。

But one of our priorities, clearly, is to protect holiday travel and minimize the impact for our customers.

但顯然，我們的首要任務之一是保護假期旅行並將對客戶的影響降至最低。

But as you know, the schedule changes and the decisions get tougher as our fleet deficit grows.

但如您所知，隨著我們機隊赤字的增加，日程安排會發生變化，並且決策會變得更加艱難。

And finally, despite the challenges that we faced, the Southwest brand remains very strong.

最後，儘管我們面臨挑戰，西南品牌仍然非常強大。

Our Net Promoter Scores are tremendous, and we remain at the very top of the industry in spite of our challenges.

我們的淨推薦值非常高，儘管面臨挑戰，我們仍然處於行業的領先地位。

And we expect to continue to grow revenues, despite declining year-over-year capacity here in the near term.

儘管短期內產能同比下降，但我們預計收入將繼續增長。

And as with our Q2 results, our Q3 RASM outlook should also put us at or near the top of the industry.

與我們的第二季度業績一樣，我們的第三季度 RASM 前景也應該使我們處於或接近行業的頂端。

So with that update, I'll turn it over to Tammy

所以有了這個更新，我會把它交給 Tammy

Thank you, Tom, and hello, everyone.

謝謝你，湯姆，大家好。

Thank you for joining us today, and I'd like to add my thanks to all of our terrific employees for their focus and hard work.

感謝您今天加入我們，我要感謝我們所有出色的員工，感謝他們的專注和辛勤工作。

Our people are simply the best, and they have proven that time and time again.

我們的員工是最優秀的，他們已經一次又一次地證明了這一點。

Gary, Mike, and Tom have outlined the challenges that we've been managing through with the MAX groundings, and I will round out our remarks with some commentary on the MAX impact on our cost, fleet and capacity plans, and our balance sheet and cash flow.

Gary、Mike 和 Tom 概述了我們在 MAX 基礎上一直在應對的挑戰，我將補充一些關於 MAX 對我們的成本、機隊和容量計劃以及我們的資產負債表和資產負債表的影響的評論。現金周轉。

Starting with cost.

從成本開始。

I'd like to commend our people for a great job at managing cost in a challenging quarter.

我想讚揚我們的員工在充滿挑戰的季度管理成本方面的出色工作。

Our second quarter nominal cost, excluding fuel and profit sharing, came in a little better than we expected at the beginning of the quarter.

我們第二季度的名義成本（不包括燃料和利潤分享）比我們在本季度初的預期要好一些。

On a unit basis, ex fuel, special items and profit sharing, our cost increased 10.9% year-over-year.

按單位計算，不含燃料、特殊項目和利潤分享，我們的成本同比增長 10.9%。

The impact of the MAX groundings drove 6 points of this year-over-year increase with the remainder of the increase primarily related to planned increases in salary, wages and benefits, maintenance spend and airport cost.

MAX 停飛的影響推動了今年同比增長 6 個百分點，其餘增長主要與工資、工資和福利、維護支出和機場成本的計劃增長有關。

Our second quarter CASM-Ex increase was favorable to the guidance we provided in our June investor update, when we were expecting a year-over-year increase in the 11.5% to 12.5% range.

我們第二季度的 CASM-Ex 增長有利於我們在 6 月投資者更新中提供的指導，當時我們預計同比增長 11.5% 至 12.5%。

Following our investor update, the combination of the grounded MAX aircraft and weather resulted in a lower completion factor than expected, which drove ASMs down further.

在我們的投資者更新之後，停飛的 MAX 飛機和天氣的結合導致完成率低於預期，這進一步推動了 ASM 的下降。

However, the incremental unit cost pressure was more than offset by lower-than-expected airport cost shifting of advertising and maintenance expenses to future quarters and solid cost controls.

然而，增加的單位成本壓力被低於預期的機場成本轉移到未來幾個季度的廣告和維護費用以及可靠的成本控制所抵消。

Turning to third quarter.

轉向第三季度。

The year-over-year unit cost pressure due to the MAX groundings continued.

由於 MAX 接地，同比單位成本壓力持續存在。

We started the year expecting about 2 points of inflation in CASM-Ex in third quarter 2019.

我們年初預計 2019 年第三季度 CASM-Ex 的通脹率約為 2 個百分點。

We now expect 7 points of the year-over-year CASM-Ex impact from the groundings in this quarter compared with the previously communicated 3-point impact I mentioned on our April earnings call, when we had the MAX aircraft removed from our flight scheduled through August 5.

我們現在預計本季度停飛對 CASM-Ex 的同比影響為 7 個百分點，而我之前在 4 月財報電話會議上提到的 3 個百分點的影響，當時我們將 MAX 飛機從預定的航班中移除到 8 月 5 日。

When combined with about a 1 point increase in year-over-year CASM-Ex from cost shifting from first half 2019, we now expect our third quarter 2019 CASM-Ex to increase in the 9% to 11% range year-over-year.

再加上 2019 年上半年成本轉移導致 CASM-Ex 同比增長約 1 個百分點，我們現在預計 2019 年第三季度 CASM-Ex 將同比增長 9% 至 11% .

Sans shifting and the MAX impact, our third quarter CASM-Ex is relatively in line with our cost plan at the beginning of the year.

沒有轉移和 MAX 影響，我們第三季度的 CASM-Ex 相對符合我們年初的成本計劃。

The good news is that we have gained some nonfuel cost offsets for third quarter as our flight schedule changes were well in advance of our flight crew bidding process, and we also had temporarily lowered landing fees.

好消息是，我們在第三季度獲得了一些非燃料成本抵消，因為我們的航班時刻表更改遠遠早於我們的機組人員招標過程，而且我們還暫時降低了著陸費。

As Mike mentioned, we've also temporarily delayed some flight crew hiring.

正如邁克所說，我們還暫時推遲了一些機組人員的招聘。

These offsets pale in comparison to the year-over-year unit cost penalty, but we are doing what we can to mitigate near-term pressure, and we will continue to do so.

與同比單位成本損失相比，這些抵消相形見絀，但我們正在盡我們所能減輕近期壓力，我們將繼續這樣做。

Looking at the full year, our current guidance is based on MAX cancellations through January 5. The MAX groundings are driving an incremental 6 points to full year CASM-Ex year-over-year as we are 6 to 7 points off our original capacity growth plan to grow 2019 ASMs nearly 5%.

縱觀全年，我們目前的指導基於 1 月 5 日之前的 MAX 取消。MAX 接地正在推動全年 CASM-Ex 同比增長 6 個百分點，因為我們比原來的產能增長低 6 到 7 個百分點計劃將 2019 年 ASM 增長近 5%。

Therefore, we currently estimate annual 2019 CASM-Ex to increase in the 8% to 10% range year-over-year.

因此，我們目前估計 2019 年 CASM-Ex 將同比增長 8% 至 10%。

As a reminder, our annual CASM-Ex increase also includes the previously communicated 0.5 point increase year-over-year from cost related to the ratified agreement with our mechanics and approximately $10 million of incremental maintenance expense for 7 of our 737-700 aircraft that we have decided to keep instead of retire this year, which I'll cover in a moment.

提醒一下，我們的 CASM-Ex 年度增長還包括先前傳達的與我們的機械師批准協議相關的成本同比增長 0.5 個百分點，以及我們 737-700 飛機中的 7 架飛機的大約 1000 萬美元的增量維護費用我們決定今年保留而不是退休，我稍後會介紹。

I won't spend too much time on fuel as the market held fairly steady through second quarter.

我不會在燃料上花太多時間，因為市場在第二季度保持相當穩定。

Our second quarter economic fuel price was right around the midpoint of our most recent guidance at $2.13 per gallon, which included hedging gains per gallon of $0.06 and premium expense per gallon of $0.05.

我們第二季度的經濟燃料價格正好在我們最近指導的中點附近，即每加侖 2.13 美元，其中包括每加侖 0.06 美元的對沖收益和每加侖 0.05 美元的保費費用。

We have a great fuel hedging protection in place this year, with about a 65% hedge in both third and fourth quarters.

今年我們有一個很好的燃料對沖保護措施，在第三和第四季度都有大約 65% 的對沖。

Our hedging premiums for this year remain at approximately $95 million or about $0.05 per gallon, and we have a 58% hedge position for 2020.

我們今年的對沖溢價保持在大約 9500 萬美元或每加侖 0.05 美元左右，我們在 2020 年的對沖頭寸為 58%。

So we are well prepared.

所以我們做好了充分的準備。

For third quarter 2019, based on market prices as of July 19 and given our current hedge, we expect our fuel price per gallon to fall in the $2.05 to $2.15 range.

對於 2019 年第三季度，根據截至 7 月 19 日的市場價格並考慮到我們當前的對沖，我們預計每加侖燃油價格將在 2.05 美元至 2.15 美元之間下降。

As I mentioned last quarter, our fuel efficiency has been significantly impacted by the MAX grounding.

正如我上個季度提到的，我們的燃油效率受到 MAX 接地的顯著影響。

Second quarter ASMs per gallon declined 1.7% year-over-year and third quarter ASMs per gallon are also expected to decline year-over-year in the 1% to 2% range.

第二季度每加侖 ASM 同比下降 1.7%，第三季度每加侖 ASM 預計也將同比下降 1% 至 2%。

This decline highlights the fuel efficiency of the MAX, which is about 14% better than the 737 NG fleet.

這一下降凸顯了 MAX 的燃油效率，比 737 NG 機隊高出約 14%。

Once the MAX returns to service, we expect to get back on track with our desired fuel efficiency gains.

一旦 MAX 重新投入使用，我們希望能夠重回正軌，實現我們期望的燃油效率提升。

Turning to fleet and capacity.

轉向車隊和容量。

We have not taken delivery of any aircraft since the MAX groundings in mid-March, and we didn't retire any aircraft this quarter.

自 3 月中旬 MAX 停飛以來，我們沒有接收任何飛機，本季度我們也沒有退役任何飛機。

So we started and ended the quarter with 753 airplanes.

因此，我們以 753 架飛機開始和結束了本季度。

We don't have an update to our contractual delivery schedule with Boeing at this point, which shows 41 remaining deliveries this year.

我們目前沒有更新與波音的合同交付時間表，顯示今年還有 41 架交付。

But we expect the majority of these will shift to 2020.

但我們預計其中大部分將轉移到 2020 年。

We have been working through the delivery delays with Boeing.

我們一直在與波音公司一起解決交貨延誤問題。

Based on their guidance, we are currently assuming we will get 16 aircraft deliveries during fourth quarter 2019, which includes 7 leased aircraft.

根據他們的指導，我們目前假設我們將在 2019 年第四季度交付 16 架飛機，其中包括 7 架租賃飛機。

To help mitigate the impact of the delivery delays, we are postponing the retirement of 7 of our own -700s.

為了幫助減輕交付延遲的影響，我們將推遲 7 架我們自己的 -700 的退役。

With this in mind, we now expect to retire 11 -700s this year was our original retirement plan of 18.

考慮到這一點，我們現在預計今年退休 11 -700 是我們最初的 18 退休計劃。

Turning back to second quarter, our ASMs declined 3.6% year-over-year.

回到第二季度，我們的 ASM 同比下降 3.6%。

For third quarter, given the absence of the MAX aircraft for the entire quarter, we expect capacity to be down in the 2% to 3% range year-over-year.

對於第三季度，鑑於整個季度都沒有 MAX 飛機，我們預計運力將同比下降 2% 至 3%。

With the extension of the MAX cancellations through year-end, fourth quarter 2019 capacity is expected to be flat to down 1% year-over-year.

隨著 MAX 取消時間延長至年底，預計 2019 年第四季度的運力將持平至同比下降 1%。

So looking at our second half 2019 plan versus where we are now, the impact of the groundings is far greater in the back half of the year, and of course, that's a function of the growing number of MAX aircraft we have planned to have in our fleet.

因此，看看我們 2019 年下半年的計劃與我們現在的情況，今年下半年停飛的影響要大得多，當然，這是我們計劃擁有的 MAX 飛機數量不斷增長的結果我們的艦隊。

For full year 2019, we now estimate capacity to be down in the 1% to 2% range year-over-year.

對於 2019 年全年，我們現在估計產能將同比下降 1% 至 2%。

And finally, turning to the balance sheet and cash flows, we ended the quarter with very healthy cash and short-term investments of approximately $4 billion.

最後，轉向資產負債表和現金流，我們以非常健康的現金和約 40 億美元的短期投資結束了本季度。

We originally estimated our total 2019 CapEx spend would be in the $1.9 billion to $2 billion range, with approximately $1 billion in aircraft-related spend.

我們最初估計我們 2019 年的總資本支出將在 19 億美元至 20 億美元之間，其中與飛機相關的支出約為 10 億美元。

Based on Boeing's most recent guidance for our remaining deliveries this year, we now expect total 2019 CapEx to be in the $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion range, with aircraft-related CapEx to be in the $400 million to $500 million range.

根據波音對今年剩餘交付量的最新指導，我們現在預計 2019 年資本支出總額將在 12 億美元至 13 億美元之間，與飛機相關的資本支出將在 4 億美元至 5 億美元之間。

The $500 million to $600 million reduction in this year's aircraft CapEx will shift to 2020, assuming the deliveries delays are caught up next year.

今年飛機資本支出減少 5 億至 6 億美元將轉移到 2020 年，假設交付延遲在明年被趕上。

Despite the year-to-date operating income penalty of $225 million from the MAX groundings, $175 million of which was in the second quarter, we generated strong operating cash flows in the first half of the year of $2.1 billion, with free cash flow of $1.7 billion, allowing us to return $1.2 billion to our shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

儘管 MAX 停飛導致年初至今的營業收入罰款 2.25 億美元，其中 1.75 億美元發生在第二季度，但我們在上半年產生了 21 億美元的強勁運營現金流，自由現金流為17 億美元，使我們能夠通過股票回購和分紅向股東返還 12 億美元。

In closing, I'd like to extend another huge thank you to all of our employees who are managing through all the challenges the MAX groundings have presented.

最後，我想再次向我們所有的員工表示衷心的感謝，他們正在應對 MAX 基礎提出的所有挑戰。

I am tremendously pleased with our financial results this quarter.

我對本季度的財務業績感到非常滿意。

Despite the negative financial impacts and operational challenges from the MAX groundings, and the 20,000 canceled flights, we still managed to produce strong margins and all-time high quarterly revenues, load factors and earnings per diluted share.

儘管 MAX 停飛帶來了負面的財務影響和運營挑戰，並且取消了 20,000 次航班，但我們仍然設法實現了強勁的利潤率和創歷史新高的季度收入、載客率和每股攤薄收益。

Our pretax return on invested capital was a strong 23.4%, even with a 1- to 2-point year-to-date penalty from the MAX grounding.

我們的投資資本稅前回報率高達 23.4%，即使今年迄今因 MAX 接地而受到 1 至 2 個百分點的懲罰。

Our balance sheet and cash flows remained strong, allowing us to continue to provide meaningful shareholder return.

我們的資產負債表和現金流保持強勁，使我們能夠繼續為股東提供有意義的回報。

Our revenue production is strong, and we continue to benefit significantly from our new revenue management system, our Rapid Rewards program and ancillary revenues.

我們的收入增長強勁，我們繼續從新的收入管理系統、快速獎勵計劃和輔助收入中受益匪淺。

We have a great fuel hedging protection in place in 2019 and beyond to mitigate fuel price pressure.

我們在 2019 年及以後製定了出色的燃料對沖保護措施，以減輕燃料價格壓力。

While lower capacity is putting year-over-year pressure on our nonfuel unit costs, we remain diligent on controlling the cost we can.

雖然較低的產能給我們的非燃料單位成本帶來了同比壓力，但我們仍在努力控製成本。

Based on what we know today, we continue to expect solid margins in 2019 at or near industry-leading FX, even with the MAX penalty, with the opportunity to continue delivering stellar returns on capital.

根據我們今天所知道的，我們繼續預計 2019 年的利潤率將達到或接近行業領先的外匯水平，即使有 MAX 罰金，也有機會繼續提供可觀的資本回報。

We will get past our near-term challenges from the MAX groundings, and our second quarter 2019 financial results demonstrate the strength of our low-cost business model, our network, and our amazing people.

我們將克服 MAX 基礎帶來的近期挑戰，我們 2019 年第二季度的財務業績證明了我們的低成本商業模式、我們的網絡和我們出色的員工的實力。

With that, Greg, I'll turn it back to you now to take questions.

有了這個，格雷格，我現在把它轉給你回答問題。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

(Operator Instructions) We'll now begin with our first question from Andrew Didora with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們現在從美國銀行的 Andrew Didora 提出的第一個問題開始。

Gary, I know you've got versions of this question on the last call, but just given everything that's going on with the MAX, I thought it was important to ask again.

加里，我知道你在上次電話會議上收到了這個問題的不同版本，但鑑於 MAX 發生的一切，我認為再次提問很重要。

I guess, when does the risk tied to having a single fleet type offset the economics of that single fleet type?

我想，與單一機隊類型相關的風險何時會抵消該單一機隊類型的經濟性？

Andrew, yes, thanks for the question.

安德魯，是的，謝謝你的提問。

It's something that we'll want to explore.

這是我們想要探索的東西。

There is no way to avoid risk with a fleet.

艦隊沒有辦法避免風險。

Period.

時期。

If we had one manufacturer that's 50% today, and the other is 50%, 50% of our fleet being grounded would be a huge problem.

如果我們今天有一個製造商是 50%，而另一個是 50%，那麼我們 50% 的機隊停飛將是一個大問題。

So I don't have anything new to tell you today.

所以我今天沒有什麼新東西要告訴你。

We think that Boeing is a very strong company, a great partner, and believe that the MAX 8 is the best airplane in its category.

我們認為波音是一家非常強大的公司，一個偉大的合作夥伴，並且相信 MAX 8 是同類產品中最好的飛機。

We haven't learned anything different in 90 days to change our view on that.

我們在 90 天內沒有學到任何不同的東西來改變我們對此的看法。

I think the nuance of your question is something that we'll want to explore, because in the current scenario, some of our competitors who do have a diversified fleet, aren't having their growth plans impacted as drastically as we are.

我認為你的問題的細微差別是我們想要探索的，因為在當前情況下，我們的一些競爭對手確實擁有多元化的機隊，他們的增長計劃並沒有像我們一樣受到嚴重影響。

But the odds of having this unique scenario again, and then executing a plan that's so narrowly focused on avoiding this, I don't -- right now, I just don't think that would be very wise.

但是，再次出現這種獨特情況的可能性，然後執行一個如此狹隘地專注於避免這種情況的計劃，我不 - 現在，我只是不認為這是非常明智的。

But the short answer is, right now, we don't see that we need a change in strategy.

但簡短的回答是，目前，我們認為不需要改變戰略。

The longer answer is, I think it's something that needs to be fully explored and debated, and that's not something we're going to do in 90 days.

更長的答案是，我認為這是需要充分探索和辯論的事情，這不是我們在 90 天內要做的事情。

As a practical matter, if we want to diversify the fleet, it would take us years.

實際上，如果我們想使機隊多樣化，我們需要數年時間。

So absent going out and acquiring another carrier, and operating a separate airline in that sense, there's just no easy way around that.

因此，如果沒有走出去收購另一家航空公司，並在這個意義上經營一家獨立的航空公司，就沒有簡單的方法。

Fair enough.

很公平。

My second question, maybe for Tammy.

我的第二個問題，也許是針對 Tammy。

Just want to get your thoughts around IMO 2020 and your hedging policies.

只想了解您對 IMO 2020 和您的對沖政策的看法。

The 58% hedge in 2020, how much of that is just a WTI as compared to jet tracks and just curious to get your expectations for the potential impact of this regulation on jet fuel?

2020 年 58% 的對沖，與噴氣軌道相比，其中有多少只是 WTI，只是想知道您對這項法規對噴氣燃料的潛在影響的預期？

Yes -- no, thanks for the question.

是的 - 不，謝謝你的問題。

We've been contemplating IMO 2020 for quite some time and that has certainly involved -- informed our hedging strategy.

我們已經考慮 IMO 2020 很長一段時間了，這肯定涉及 - 為我們的對沖策略提供了信息。

We have about a 10% position in heating oil for 2020, and we have a combination of Brent and WTI.

到 2020 年，我們在取暖油中的份額約為 10%，我們擁有布倫特和 WTI 的組合。

So we have a diversified portfolio, and we feel like we're positioned well, should we see prices increase -- or the crack spreads, rather, increase from current levels.

所以我們有一個多元化的投資組合，如果我們看到價格上漲——或者說裂縫價差從當前水平增加，我們覺得我們的定位很好。

And just in case you missed it in our earnings release, we have a 58% hedge for 2020.

萬一您在我們的收益發布中錯過了它，我們在 2020 年有 58% 的對沖。

So again, very well hedged.

再次，很好地對沖。

Moving on.

繼續。

From Stifel, we have Joseph DeNardi.

在 Stifel，我們有 Joseph DeNardi。

Gary, I'm wondering if you can just talk about, given the plan that Mike laid out for reintroducing the MAX, how we should think about capacity growth and if you'd like to discuss that CASM-Ex kind of into next year, just given all the moving pieces.

加里，我想知道你是否可以談談，鑑於邁克為重新引入 MAX 制定的計劃，我們應該如何考慮容量增長，以及你是否想討論明年的 CASM-Ex，剛剛給出了所有的移動部件。

Mike has a lot of work to do, when you think about the variability in the Boeing delivery schedule from here.

當您從這裡考慮波音交付時間表的可變性時，邁克有很多工作要做。

So all we can do at this point is put a stake in the ground, make some assumptions.

所以我們現在所能做的就是把賭注放在地上，做出一些假設。

I think we've been clear what our assumptions are here for the near term.

我認為我們已經很清楚我們在短期內的假設是什麼。

I think when you then, under the assumption that we hit those dates, Mike, where Boeing has done in September, FAA signs off in October, and we begin taking deliveries, I guess, that would be sometime in December, let's say.

我認為，當您假設我們達到這些日期時，邁克，波音公司在 9 月份完成的工作，FAA 在 10 月份簽署，我們開始接受交付，我猜，假設是在 12 月份的某個時間。

Right now, we're making assumptions as to how many airplanes we can physically unground ourselves, how many Boeing can physically unground, and then how many Boeing can deliver.

現在，我們正在假設我們自己可以在物理上解散多少架飛機，可以在物理上解散多少架波音飛機，然後可以交付多少架波音飛機。

So there's 3 different sources of MAX 8s.

所以有 3 種不同的 MAX 8 來源。

And there's always so many.

而且總是有這麼多。

We can do in a day or in a week.

我們可以在一天或一周內完成。

And we just don't know.

而我們只是不知道。

We're in uncharted territory there.

我們在那里處於未知領域。

So I think that has some bearing.

所以我認為這有一定的意義。

We've got a retirement plan for some number of, Tammy, MAX or rather a 737-700s planned for next year.

我們已經為一些數量的 Tammy、MAX 或者更確切地說是明年計劃的 737-700 制定了退休計劃。

We have some interest in either accelerating or decelerating the retirements.

我們對加速或減速退休有一些興趣。

So we'll just have to see.

所以我們只需要看看。

At this point, I'll tell you, our overarching goal is we want as many MAXes as we can practically deploy as soon as possible.

在這一點上，我會告訴你，我們的首要目標是我們希望盡快部署盡可能多的 MAX。

And if we don't like the resulting capacity, then I think we would then lean more heavily to, perhaps, accelerate some of the -700s.

如果我們不喜歡由此產生的容量，那麼我認為我們會更加傾向於加速一些-700s。

As we look at all of our route performance, and just market, after market, after market, it is obvious that we're short capacity, that we're spilling traffic and leaving money on the table and helping our competitors.

當我們審視我們所有的航線表現，以及一個又一個市場，一個又一個市場時，很明顯我們的運力不足，我們正在溢出流量，把錢留在桌子上，幫助我們的競爭對手。

And I will also tell you that, that is not anything that we will leave unattended.

我還要告訴你，這不是我們會無人看管的事情。

So if there's a range of behavior that you would expect from us next year from, never reckless, from being aggressive to being passive, I can assure you we're going to want to restore our operation and our system just as quickly as, again, we can safely and efficiently do that.

因此，如果您期望我們明年有一系列行為，從不魯莽，從激進到被動，我可以向您保證，我們將希望盡快恢復我們的運營和系統，我們可以安全有效地做到這一點。

But a lot of questions, and right now, its unproductive to try to give you any number about what that might be.

但是有很多問題，而且現在，試圖給你任何關於這可能是什麼的數字是徒勞的。

My goal would be, by the time we get to the end of next year, to hope that we were back smoothly on our delivery schedule and our operation.

我的目標是，到明年年底時，希望我們能夠順利恢復交貨計劃和運營。

And I think it's possible that we beat that by 6 months, just depending on whether, again, whether we meet the current time frame, and whether Boeing can deliver at the rate that we are assuming next year.

而且我認為我們有可能超過 6 個月，這取決於我們是否再次滿足當前的時間框架，以及波音能否以我們明年假設的速度交付。

And just to maybe jump in to help with what all this means for our 2020 cost, well, the MAX groundings are obviously creating a material impact on our year-over-year ASM growth in CASM-Ex trends for 2019, and our long-term unit cost target is unchanged.

也許只是為了幫助解決這一切對我們 2020 年的成本意味著什麼，好吧，MAX 基礎顯然對我們在 2019 年 CASM-Ex 趨勢中的 ASM 同比增長產生了重大影響，以及我們的長期-長期單位成本目標不變。

Our unit cost goal, excluding fuel and profit sharing, is annual year-over-year growth below 2% as I discussed on last quarter's call.

正如我在上個季度的電話會議上討論的那樣，我們的單位成本目標（不包括燃料和利潤分享）是年同比增長率低於 2%。

And I just do want to point out that this cost target incudes our estimates for salary, wages and benefits, and increases for our people.

我只想指出，這個成本目標包括我們對工資、工資和福利的估計，以及我們員工的增長。

We are experiencing pressure on our 2019 unit cost due to the lower capacity as a result of the MAX groundings.

由於 MAX 接地導致容量降低，我們 2019 年的單位成本面臨壓力。

And that's about, again, 6 points to the full year.

這大約是全年的 6 個百分點。

And while this does create some near-term challenges for us, these pressures are onetime and will pass.

雖然這確實給我們帶來了一些近期挑戰，但這些壓力是一次性的，將會過去。

The year-over-year comparisons for next year, obviously, would be more favorable given this year's impact from the grounding.

顯然，考慮到今年接地的影響，明年的同比比較會更有利。

So in terms of just a target for next year, it would be to absolutely drive towards declining year-over-year CASM-Ex in 2020.

因此，僅就明年的目標而言，絕對是在 2020 年實現 CASM-Ex 同比下降。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then Gary, just another one for you.

然後是加里，再給你一個。

Given your tenure at the airline, can you just talk about over the last 25 years how the economics of your partnership with Chase have changed, what that means for helping the durability of your business over a cycle?

鑑於您在該航空公司的任期，您能否談談在過去 25 年中，您與 Chase 合作的經濟狀況發生了怎樣的變化，這對幫助您的業務在一個週期內保持持久性意味著什麼？

And then where your economics are now relative to the industry given that you most recently did the deal in 2015?

那麼，鑑於您最近在 2015 年完成了這筆交易，您現在的經濟相對於行業的情況如何？

And it's pretty clear that the economics have become more favorable for airlines over the past few years.

很明顯，過去幾年經濟對航空公司來說變得更加有利。

Yes.

是的。

So I'll give you a quick comment.

所以我會給你一個快速的評論。

And then Tom, would love for you to opine on that topic.

然後湯姆，希望你能就這個話題發表意見。

But just starting with 25 years, I think 25 years ago, we didn't have an affinity card and saw that as a great opportunity.

但從 25 年開始，我認為 25 年前，我們沒有親和卡，並認為這是一個很好的機會。

And so in the industry, I don't know that I have as much of a perspective there.

所以在這個行業，我不知道我在那裡有這麼多的觀點。

But certainly for us, yes, we've come a long way in 25 years.

但對我們來說，是的，我們在 25 年裡取得了長足的進步。

The -- when I started as CEO in '04, we quickly concluded that the #1 enhancement that we needed to make for the Southwest brand was to overhaul our frequent flyer program, and Tom covered a lot of material in his remarks but I'll just cover it again.

——當我在 04 年開始擔任首席執行官時，我們很快得出結論，我們需要為西南品牌做出的第一大改進是徹底改革我們的常旅客計劃，湯姆在他的講話中涵蓋了很多材料，但我將再次覆蓋它。

It is an award-winning industry-leading frequent flyer program, and that is the foundation for the, obviously, driving the revenues.

這是一個屢獲殊榮的行業領先的常旅客計劃，顯然這是推動收入的基礎。

We have a great plan.

我們有一個偉大的計劃。

Our customers love it.

我們的客戶喜歡它。

They take our credit card in droves, and we obviously factor all of that into our economics.

他們成群結隊地拿走我們的信用卡，我們顯然將所有這些因素都納入了我們的經濟中。

So we are far more stable, I would say, in terms of our revenue generation today than we were before.

因此，我想說，就我們今天的創收而言，我們比以前穩定得多。

Then the new program was launched in 2011, very proud of that.

然後新計劃於2011年推出，為此感到非常自豪。

That may be even the single biggest accomplishment that Southwest had over the last 10 to 15 years.

這甚至可能是西南航空在過去 10 到 15 年中取得的最大成就。

It was really, really significant.

這真的非常重要。

Tom, you want to -- anything you want to add on the economics?

湯姆，你想 - 你想在經濟學上添加什麼？

Obviously, we hold a lot of that very close to the vest, but it seems that...

顯然，我們把很多東西都放在離背心很近的地方，但似乎……

We do all the economics really close to vest.

我們所做的所有經濟學都非常接近背心。

What I can tell you is just the growth of the program has -- continues to be incredible.

我可以告訴你的是，該計劃的增長——仍然令人難以置信。

It's just a massive growth engine for us.

對我們來說，這只是一個巨大的增長引擎。

The retention, the customer affinity, the value of that customer is just so much greater than our noncard-holding customer.

該客戶的保留、客戶親和力和價值遠遠高於我們的非持卡客戶。

But we don't get into the economics of it.

但是我們沒有進入它的經濟學。

What I can tell you is we are really thrilled with the partnership.

我可以告訴你的是，我們對這種夥伴關係感到非常興奮。

We're thrilled for a long time.

我們激動了很久。

We did, as you know -- well, not going to get into that either.

如您所知，我們做到了——好吧，我們也不打算談這個。

But we are really thrilled with Chase.

但我們對 Chase 感到非常興奮。

It's a good partnership.

這是一個很好的伙伴關係。

Next, we have Helane Becker with Cowen and Company.

接下來，我們有 Cowen and Company 的 Helane Becker。

I'm not sure who can answer this question.

我不確定誰能回答這個問題。

But when you talk about the pilot training and taking 1 to 2 months, do you have to put them through the simulator?

但是當你談到飛行員培訓和需要1到2個月的時間時，你是否必須讓他們通過模擬器？

Can you just sort of maybe address that?

你能解決這個問題嗎？

Hi, Helane.

嗨，海蘭。

This is Mike.

這是邁克。

We're not expecting to have to put them through the simulator for the pilot training on the MAX.

我們預計不必讓他們通過模擬器進行 MAX 飛行員培訓。

What we believe is that there needs to be an awareness of the MCAS system, how that works, what it's doing in the airplane and that there can be -- my understanding is there can be sufficient computer-based training that shows the pilots of what is going on there.

我們認為，需要了解 MCAS 系統，它是如何工作的，它在飛機上做什麼，並且可以——我的理解是可以有足夠的基於計算機的培訓來向飛行員展示什麼正在那裡進行。

We have for -- at Southwest, we've been doing training with our pilots in terms of hand-flying the airplanes since kind of really the inception of the airline.

我們有 - 在西南航空，自從航空公司成立以來，我們就一直在與我們的飛行員進行手動駕駛飛機的培訓。

And over the last 2 years, we've introduced this training called the extended envelope training.

在過去的 2 年中，我們引入了這種稱為擴展信封培訓的培訓。

And our pilots have been through scenarios where the airplanes are at the boundaries of their performance limits.

我們的飛行員已經經歷過飛機處於性能極限邊界的情況。

And they've been in situations like the Ethiopian and Hawaiian Air incident, and they've already been through simulator training for those kind of things.

他們經歷過埃塞俄比亞航空和夏威夷航空事件等情況，而且他們已經接受過針對此類事情的模擬器培訓。

So this will be the second year that they've completed all of that.

所以這將是他們完成所有這些的第二年。

So when you bundle all that together, that's why we think that the computer-based training coming out of this grounding is appropriate.

因此，當您將所有這些捆綁在一起時，這就是為什麼我們認為基於此基礎的基於計算機的培訓是合適的。

And then we supplement that ongoing with the recurrent training in the simulator.

然後我們通過模擬器中的複訓來補充這一點。

Helane, the other thing that I would add, which is really beyond your question, but it does -- it sort of explained the environment here.

Helane，我要補充的另一件事，這確實超出了你的問題，但確實如此——它有點解釋了這裡的環境。

I think Southwest is the gold standard for the industry.

我認為西南航空是該行業的黃金標準。

We hire first officers that on average have 6,000 hours of flight experience.

我們聘請的副駕駛平均擁有 6,000 小時的飛行經驗。

And in addition to that, we hire first officers that have captain experience.

除此之外，我們還聘請有船長經驗的副駕駛。

So you start with a very experienced cockpit crew.

因此，您從經驗豐富的駕駛艙機組人員開始。

Then we obviously only fly the 737.

那麼我們顯然隻飛737。

We are the industry leader when it comes to training and operations, and Mike covered our philosophy about flying the airplane and training for certain scenarios.

在培訓和運營方面，我們是行業領導者，Mike 介紹了我們關於駕駛飛機和針對特定場景進行培訓的理念。

So we'll be very well prepared to take on this new training requirement.

因此，我們將做好充分準備迎接這一新的培訓要求。

Our pilots, I think -- more importantly, our pilots are very comfortable and love the MAX and are looking forward to restoring it to service.

我認為，我們的飛行員——更重要的是，我們的飛行員非常舒適，喜歡 MAX，並期待將其恢復使用。

And they'll play a key role obviously when we communicate and when we're reintroducing the MAX to our customers.

當我們進行溝通以及將 MAX 重新介紹給客戶時，他們顯然將發揮關鍵作用。

But we factored all of that into our plans.

但我們將所有這些因素都納入了我們的計劃。

We're allowing more than ample time for the training and the reintroduction of the fleet.

我們為訓練和重新引入艦隊留出了充足的時間。

And I think as we were talking earlier, what is going to be as much of a challenge, if maybe not more of a challenge, is just the maintenance and the reintroduction of all the airplanes back into service will be a task.

而且我認為正如我們之前所說的那樣，即使不是更大的挑戰，也將是一項挑戰，那就是維護和讓所有飛機重新投入使用將是一項任務。

And again, I think that Mike has allowed more than enough time for that with our January 5 target date.

再一次，我認為邁克已經為我們 1 月 5 日的目標日期留出了足夠的時間。

Got you.

得到你。

And then can I just ask you one question about Newark so I understand this?

然後我可以問你一個關於紐瓦克的問題，以便我理解這一點嗎？

So this is not just a suspension of service.

因此，這不僅僅是暫停服務。

And when the MAX does come in, you're going to go back?

當 MAX 真的進來時，你會回去嗎？

This is just leaving the market, returning the slots?

這只是離開市場，歸還插槽？

Those -- right now, it's not slotted anymore.

那些——現在，它不再被開槽了。

It was when we acquired them in 2010.

那是我們在 2010 年收購它們的時候。

But the FAA, whatever that term is, they unslotted them several years ago.

但是美國聯邦航空局，無論這個術語是什麼，他們幾年前就取消了它們。

But no, this is a decision where -- and that's why I like the word consolidate.

但是不，這是一個決定——這就是為什麼我喜歡鞏固這個詞。

So we'll have a significant New York City presence.

因此，我們將在紐約市佔有重要地位。

It will be focused where our customers want to go, which is LaGuardia.

它將專注於我們的客戶想去的地方，那就是拉瓜迪亞。

And we have -- actually, with the new facility and the 800s and the MAX 8, we have an opportunity to grow our seat capacity there by, I don't know, 10%, 20% over time.

我們有——實際上，有了新設施、800s 和 MAX 8，我們有機會在那裡增加座位容量，我不知道，隨著時間的推移，增加 10% 或 20%。

So we have ample opportunity to do that, and we'll have a far more efficient, cost-effective operation and revenue production by consolidating into one airport as opposed to having it diluted over 2. So again, it's 2 still relatively small operations today that will consolidate into a much more efficient and arguably larger operation at LaGuardia.

所以我們有足夠的機會做到這一點，通過整合到一個機場，而不是將其稀釋超過 2 個，我們將擁有更高效、更具成本效益的運營和創收。所以，今天它仍然是相對較小的 2 個運營這將在拉瓜迪亞整合成一個更高效、可以說規模更大的業務。

And next from JPMorgan, we have Jamie Baker.

接下來來自摩根大通，我們有 Jamie Baker。

Gary, I'm already kicking myself for asking this question last quarter because I'm basically going to ask it again today and probably will continue to do so for as long as the MAX remains grounded.

加里，我已經在上個季度問這個問題了，因為我今天基本上會再問一次，而且只要 MAX 保持停飛狀態，我可能會繼續這樣做。

Have you give any further thought to how long you can tolerate or would choose to tolerate year-on-year capacity declines before you potentially consider nonorganic growth?

在您可能考慮非有機增長之前，您是否進一步考慮過您可以容忍或選擇容忍同比產能下降多長時間？

You're clearly agitated by funneling profits and market share into your competitors' coffers.

將利潤和市場份額轉移到競爭對手的金庫中，您顯然會感到不安。

You've said as much today and I respect that.

你今天說了這麼多，我尊重這一點。

So I've got to imagine there's a breaking point out there somewhere.

所以我必須想像在某個地方有一個突破點。

Again, I'm just trying to be pragmatic without being overly legalistic here with you.

再說一次，我只是想變得務實，而不是在你這裡過分墨守成規。

Obviously, we can't comment on anything like that in substance.

顯然，我們不能對類似的事情進行實質評論。

I mean I'm just trying to play the game a little bit.

我的意思是我只是想玩一點遊戲。

As a practical matter, we came into this in March with a view that this was a short-term problem.

作為一個實際問題，我們在 3 月份考慮到這是一個短期問題。

And one of the things that I think we've tried to emphasize or clarify here today is that we've got a strategy, we're executing the strategy, and this is really not affecting any of that.

我認為我們今天在這裡試圖強調或澄清的一件事是，我們有一個戰略，我們正在執行該戰略，這實際上並沒有影響到這一切。

So all of that is a view that it's going to be ungrounded by the summer.

所以所有這一切都是一種觀點，即到了夏天它就會變得毫無根據。

And again, it was disappointing to find yet another delay, which essentially pushes it out to early next year.

再一次，令人失望的是又一次延遲，這基本上將其推遲到了明年年初。

But all that we can handle and we can manage.

但我們可以處理的所有事情，我們都可以管理。

So I think the tolerance -- and in fairness to your question, the tolerance for this scenario goes well beyond that because then the nature of your question moves into a huge strategic question.

所以我認為容忍度——公平地說，對你的問題的容忍度遠遠超出了這個範圍，因為你的問題的性質變成了一個巨大的戰略問題。

And that -- so hopefully I made answer to your question.

那 - 所以希望我回答了你的問題。

We're -- we can work our way through this.

我們 - 我們可以通過這個工作。

Obviously, the financial results that we've got right now are superb even in -- relative to our competitors, it's actually incredible that we're -- that we compare so strongly, and we'll get through this.

顯然，我們現在獲得的財務結果是非常棒的——相對於我們的競爭對手，我們實際上是令人難以置信的——我們的對比如此強烈，我們會度過難關的。

We're going to end the year healthier than we started the year.

我們將比年初更健康地結束這一年。

And we've actually exercised a few new muscles here and there in really good shape.

我們實際上已經在這里和那裡鍛煉了一些新的肌肉，而且狀態非常好。

If we have to continue to manage a ragged schedule, we're doing pretty well at that.

如果我們必須繼續管理一個參差不齊的時間表，我們在這方面做得很好。

So I just don't think that that's going to be an issue for us.

所以我只是不認為這對我們來說是個問題。

Okay.

好的。

Fair enough.

很公平。

I appreciate that.

我很感激。

As a -- and just as a follow-on to that, I mean I have a real quick question for Tammy, you talked about some soul-searching as to this whole fleet-type structure.

作為一個 - 並且作為一個後續，我的意思是我有一個非常簡短的問題要問 Tammy，你談到了對整個艦隊型結構的一些反省。

Should we assume that Boeing competitors are circling you more aggressively in the current environment than they ordinarily do?

我們是否應該假設波音的競爭對手在當前環境中比平時更積極地圍繞著你？

Or is that not the case?

或者事實並非如此？

Well, that's always the case.

嗯，情況總是如此。

And -- yes, that's always the case.

而且——是的，情況總是如此。

And again, we've been open -- mike has been looking at other airplanes and there's nothing.

再說一次，我們一直是開放的——邁克一直在看其他飛機，但什麼也沒有。

That's a duty we have.

這是我們的職責。

We want to know what's out there in the marketplace, and we need to be comfortable that we've made the best decision for our company, our shareholders, our customers, on and on and on.

我們想知道市場上有什麼，我們需要確信我們已經為我們的公司、我們的股東、我們的客戶做出了最好的決定，等等。

But -- so hopefully, I answered that question.

但是——希望如此，我回答了這個問題。

And then a quick follow-up or a quick housekeeping for Tammy.

然後對 Tammy 進行快速跟進或快速整理。

How should we think about the engine overhaul expense on the 700s that you're keeping?

我們應該如何考慮您保留的 700 的發動機大修費用？

Just wondering if that will hit the P&L or if the plan is to run them down before you park them?

只是想知道這是否會影響損益，或者是否計劃在您停放它們之前將它們耗盡？

I suppose MAX, I mean, might impact that calculus.

我想MAX，我的意思是，可能會影響微積分。

And thank you both.

謝謝你們倆。

It's been an exceptionally thorough conference call, best one this season.

這是一次非常徹底的電話會議，是本賽季最好的電話會議。

Well, thank you, Jamie.

好吧，謝謝你，傑米。

And I don't want to kick you after that.

我不想在那之後踢你。

So -- but we -- on your question on the maintenance expense, there is about $10 million associated with pushing those 7 aircraft, and that's all contemplated in the guidance that we provided to you this morning.

所以 - 但我們 - 關於你關於維護費用的問題，推動這 7 架飛機大約需要 1000 萬美元，這一切都在我們今天早上提供給你的指導中得到了考慮。

And that's going to hit fourth quarter as we at least largely ...

這將影響到第四季度，因為我們至少在很大程度上......

And next we have Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore.

接下來是 Evercore 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

So just this replanning challenge that you've been managing through, in broad brush strokes, you are going to grow mid-single digits in 4Q.

因此，就您一直在應對的重新規劃挑戰，粗略地說，您將在第四季度增長中個位數。

By our math, the MAX was more than 100% of that.

根據我們的數學計算，MAX 超過了 100%。

The MAX was like 11 points of that growth.

MAX 是增長的 11 個點。

So ex MAX, your plan was actually to just shrink the fleet, maybe shrink stage, maybe shrink utilization.

所以前 MAX，你的計劃實際上只是縮小機隊，也許縮小階段，也許縮小利用率。

So can you just talk about how you practically unwind that?

所以你能談談你實際上是如何放鬆的嗎？

I assume in 4Q, some of the aircraft were going away related to maintenance events that are due.

我假設在第四季度，一些飛機因到期的維護事件而離開。

Just in broad brush strokes, how do you unwind that and minimize the schedule damage?

就在粗略的筆觸中，您如何放鬆並最大程度地減少進度損失？

Tammy, would you mind if I take a swing at that?

塔米，你介意我試一試嗎？

You can clean it up.

你可以把它清理乾淨。

Is that okay?

可以嗎？

I do not mind at all.

我一點也不在意。

Well, we're in the middle of the sausage-making with that.

好吧，我們正在製作香腸。

I would say that as the -- if we were to take the MAX out of the schedule gross for the fourth quarter, I believe that is close to 11%.

我想說的是——如果我們將 MAX 從第四季度的總收入中剔除，我相信這接近 11%。

So again, as a reference point, we're talking about a reduction in the second quarter because of the MAX of 7%, 8% in third quarter.

因此，再次作為參考，我們談論的是第二季度的減少，因為 MAX 為 7%，第三季度為 8%。

So it goes up because we have more airplanes.

所以它上升是因為我們有更多的飛機。

Now the holiday schedules are really complicated because of the vast difference between a peak day and an off-peak day.

現在假期安排真的很複雜，因為高峰日和非高峰日之間的巨大差異。

And it's really complicated for our network planners.

對於我們的網絡規劃人員來說，這真的很複雜。

And they've really honed those schedules over the years, and it's fully automated.

多年來，他們確實磨練了這些時間表，而且它是完全自動化的。

And so this scenario blows all that up, and they have to go back and now try to do it manually.

所以這個場景把這一切都搞砸了，他們必須回去，現在嘗試手動完成。

We don't want to eliminate 10% to 11% of our capacity.

我們不想消除 10% 到 11% 的產能。

And because of the off-peak days and the off-peak nature of some of the days, there's an opportunity to add back some flying, maybe fly the day longer and a few things like that where we could trim that back instead of being down 10% or 11% to something less.

由於非高峰日和某些日子的非高峰性質，有機會增加一些飛行時間，也許飛行時間更長，以及一些類似的事情，我們可以將其調整回來而不是下降10% 或 11% 少一些。

And until we figure out what that is, I'd rather not give you a number.

在我們弄清楚那是什麼之前，我寧願不給你一個數字。

But we do have that choice.

但我們確實有這樣的選擇。

It won't be the greatest schedule.

這不會是最大的時間表。

It might come with some RASM penalty because some of those flights won't be optimal for our customers.

它可能會帶來一些 RASM 罰款，因為其中一些航班對我們的客戶來說不是最佳的。

But we will do it with and without here.

但無論有沒有這裡，我們都會這樣做。

What's more productive from a profit perspective versus narrowly focusing on CASM or RASM independently, and that's the way we're thinking about it.

從利潤的角度來看，與狹隘地單獨關注 CASM 或 RASM 相比，什麼更有效率，這就是我們正在考慮的方式。

But I don't know if that's where you were coming from with your question.

但我不知道你的問題是否來自那裡。

But you are correct that the fourth quarter is more complicated because of the number of different schedules and because I think Tom said we're looking for 75 airplanes at that point.

但你說得對，第四季度更複雜，因為有很多不同的時間表，而且我認為湯姆說我們當時正在尋找 75 架飛機。

And that's why as time goes by, it gets more challenging for us.

這就是為什麼隨著時間的推移，它對我們來說變得更具挑戰性。

So having said all that, no matter what, we're still going to have a solid quarter.

所以說了這麼多，無論如何，我們仍然會有一個穩定的季度。

We'll have a solid profit.

我們將獲得可觀的利潤。

We will publish a schedule that we're proud of in the sense that Mike can operate it.

我們將發布一個我們引以為豪的時間表，因為邁克可以操作它。

It'll be well staffed, et cetera, et cetera.

它將配備充足的人員，等等，等等。

It just won't be tuned and operated or optimized rather like it normally is.

它只是不會像往常一樣進行調整、操作或優化。

Tom?

湯姆?

Well, yes.

嗯，是。

I just want to add to that.

我只是想補充一點。

I think your -- part of your question was so how are you going unwind this not just financially but from the quality of the schedule perspective?

我認為您的部分問題是，您將如何不僅在財務上，而且從日程安排的質量角度來解決這個問題？

I think that's how I interpret it.

我想這就是我的解釋。

Obviously, when I get the customers, we need to -- we're going to need to be in that kind of thing.

顯然，當我得到客戶時，我們需要 - 我們將需要參與那種事情。

But we weren't thinking about it as to -- and on to Gary's comments where we had to take a shorter-term view perhaps with some routes that have lower RASM performance as well as routes that are poor CASM performers.

但我們並沒有考慮到 - 以及 Gary 的評論，我們不得不採取短期觀點，也許是一些 RASM 性能較低的路線以及 CASM 性能較差的路線。

And the way we're working through it in our network team is just -- as Gary said, we haven't got through this manually.

我們在我們的網絡團隊中處理它的方式只是 - 正如 Gary 所說，我們還沒有手動完成它。

There's not a process to do this on this kind of scale.

沒有一個流程可以在這種規模上做到這一點。

So we've had to pare back some of our long-haul routes that are underperforming against the average.

因此，我們不得不削減一些表現低於平均水平的長途航線。

There are also routes that were -- long-haul routes where there are alternative options.

還有一些路線——有替代選擇的長途路線。

We can pare those back.

我們可以削減這些。

And we're also reducing some of the international frequencies.

我們還減少了一些國際頻率。

So we're being very opportunistic.

所以我們非常投機取巧。

We happen to look at it line by line, and that's how we're doing it.

我們碰巧一行一行地查看它，這就是我們的做法。

But it's about profitability.

但這是關於盈利能力的。

It's about getting our customers where they needed to be.

這是為了讓我們的客戶到達他們需要的地方。

But to Gary's point about the unsung heroes, that's the network planning role right now and they are the heroes.

但就加里關於無名英雄的觀點而言，這就是現在的網絡規劃角色，他們是英雄。

That's what they're doing.

這就是他們正在做的事情。

So...

所以...

Tammy, anything you want to clean up there?

Tammy，你有什麼想清理的嗎？

No.

不。

I don't think there is much to add to all of that.

我認為沒有什麼可以補充的。

All of that -- just in terms of what we're expecting for capacity, just to maybe put a bow around all of that, and again, we're obviously still working through all of this as we sit here today.

所有這一切——就我們對容量的期望而言，只是為了對所有這些表示敬意，而且，當我們今天坐在這裡時，顯然我們仍在努力解決所有這些問題。

But we did give you our full year ASM guidance of down 1% to 2% year-over-year.

但我們確實為您提供了同比下降 1% 至 2% 的全年 ASM 指導。

So just backing into that, it does imply exactly as you're coming up with there, Duane, that we'd be maybe down a little bit, maybe down a point or so for our fourth quarter.

所以只是支持這一點，這確實意味著正如你所想的那樣，杜安，我們可能會下降一點，也許在第四季度下降一個點左右。

But again, a lot of moving parts and I will firm up any of that guidance as we go here.

但同樣，有很多活動部件，我會在我們走到這裡時鞏固任何指導。

And then just real quick on the follow-up.

然後快速跟進。

Really appreciate all the moving parts on 2020 outcomes and appreciate your commentary about the -- that you want to make up in any lost ground that you gave up this year.

非常感謝關於 2020 年成果的所有動人部分，並感謝您對您希望彌補今年放棄的任何失地的評論。

But based on your current knowledge of the approvals, based on your current knowledge of Boeing's ability to deliver, do you really think you'll end next year at that same shell count you expected to end 2020 before this MAX grounding?

但是，根據您目前對批准的了解，根據您目前對波音公司交付能力的了解，您真的認為明年您會以您預計在 MAX 接地之前到 2020 年結束的相同數量結束嗎？

Well, based on what we know today, we're aware that 6 deliveries, Tammy, would slip into 2021.

好吧，根據我們今天所知道的，我們知道 6 次交付，Tammy，將滑入 2021 年。

So just trying to take your question literally here.

因此，只是想從字面上理解您的問題。

And yes, it'll be less than what we thought.

是的，它會比我們想像的要少。

But I think I'm fine with that.

但我認為我對此很好。

That's plenty close enough.

這已經足夠接近了。

And as everybody is aware, we're talking about putting a lot of airplanes into service next year.

正如每個人都知道的那樣，我們正在談論明年將大量飛機投入使用。

So if 6 slipped out of 2020 into 2021, from that perspective, that's fine as well.

因此，如果 6 從 2020 年滑到 2021 年，從這個角度來看，那也很好。

It's not going to make a huge difference.

這不會有很大的不同。

I think what's more in play, again, is whether we want to try to accelerate some retirements.

我認為更重要的是，我們是否想嘗試加速一些退休。

And there's just work to be done there, and our teams do a tail-by-tail analysis to see what maintenance cost could be avoided and whether that's sensible and whether it really is profit-accretive to try to do that.

那裡還有一些工作要做，我們的團隊進行了逐尾分析，以了解可以避免哪些維護成本，這是否明智，以及嘗試這樣做是否真的能增加利潤。

There's just a lot that goes into that.

這裡面有很多內容。

Our staffing plan for next year looks really good, Mike.

邁克，我們明年的人員配備計劃看起來非常好。

So we haven't slowed our hiring such that we have a real snapback next year to catch up.

因此，我們並沒有放慢招聘速度，這樣我們明年就有了真正的回升來迎頭趕上。

So that's another, I guess, a fancy way of saying we're a bit overstaffed.

所以我猜這是另一種說法，我們有點人滿為患。

I don't think it's unproductive.

我不認為這是徒勞的。

But we have had to defer a couple of flight attendant and pilot classes, as you pointed out earlier, into next year.

但正如你之前指出的，我們不得不將一些空乘和飛行員課程推遲到明年。

So all the way around, again, I think we're set up very well.

所以一直以來，我認為我們的設置非常好。

We can manage this.

我們可以做到這一點。

We're getting good at it.

我們做得很好。

So hopefully, it will -- hopefully, we'll hit the assumed time line that we shared with you.

所以希望它會——希望我們會達到我們與您分享的假設時間線。

And I think if that's the case, we'll be reasonably back in line with where we should have been by midyear, if not earlier.

而且我認為，如果是這樣的話，我們將合理地回到年中（如果不是更早的話）我們應該達到的水平。

So we could potentially recover quickly, which will be very welcome.

所以我們可能會很快恢復，這將是非常受歡迎的。

Yes.

是的。

Just to add on to what Gary had said, and we've talked about this a lot, we have tremendous flexibility in our fleet plan.

只是為了補充 Gary 所說的，我們已經討論了很多，我們的艦隊計劃有很大的靈活性。

So we'll work through this, and obviously, with the goal to produce financial results that we'll all be proud of and do it in a way that takes care of our customers.

因此，我們將解決這個問題，顯然，我們的目標是產生我們都會引以為豪的財務成果，並以照顧我們客戶的方式做到這一點。

So we -- as Gary said, we're working through our retirement plan, but we've got a lot of flexibility there.

所以我們——正如加里所說，我們正在製定我們的退休計劃，但我們在那裡有很大的靈活性。

And so we'll work through all that.

因此，我們將解決所有這些問題。

And I think you'll be really proud of the results when it's all said and done.

而且我認為，當一切都說完了，你會為結果感到非常自豪。

And we have time for one more analyst question.

我們有時間再回答一個分析師問題。

We'll take that last question from Rajeev Lalwani with Morgan Stanley.

我們將回答來自摩根士丹利的 Rajeev Lalwani 的最後一個問題。

Gary, Mike, a question for you on the obvious with the MAX.

加里，邁克，一個關於 MAX 的問題。

Can you talk about the plan to make sure you get confidence from passengers in terms of flying the plane and how you're going to tackle that if you don't have the load factors and yields that are suffering in the first couple of months?

您能否談談確保您在乘坐飛機方面獲得乘客信心的計劃，以及如果您沒有前幾個月遭受的載客率和產量，您將如何解決這個問題？

And then relating to that, can you talk about any dialogue that you're having with the FAA?

然後與此相關，你能談談你與 FAA 的任何對話嗎？

And any color about whether you sense urgency on their part to sort of move this along given some of the pressures that you're obviously highlighting?

考慮到你明顯強調的一些壓力，你是否感覺到他們迫切需要推動這一點？

Well, why don't I take them in reverse.

好吧，我為什麼不把它們反過來。

And Tom, if you want, you can talk about the reintroduction.

湯姆，如果你願意，你可以談談重新引入。

So -- and Mike, can you help me out here on the FAA?

那麼——邁克，你能幫我在美國聯邦航空局工作嗎？

Well, yes, the answer on the FAA is yes.

嗯，是的，FAA 的答案是肯定的。

We have daily dialogue with the FAA.

我們每天都與 FAA 進行對話。

And I think that the FAA is -- well, these are Gary's words.

我認為美國聯邦航空局是——嗯，這是加里的話。

I believe that the work of Boeing on MCAS is done, and I believe that the FAA is signed off on it.

我相信波音公司在 MCAS 上的工作已經完成，我相信 FAA 已經簽署了它。

Although they are -- they will clearly tell you that they're not going to sign off on the MAX 8 until it is "all done." But I think the MCAS component is done.

雖然他們是——他們會清楚地告訴你，在“全部完成”之前，他們不會在 MAX 8 上簽字。但我認為 MCAS 組件已經完成。

I'll be shocked if we learn anything different on that, and I'd be disappointed to learn anything different.

如果我們在這方面學到任何不同的東西，我會感到震驚，而我會因為學到不同的東西而感到失望。

But I don't sense that the FAA is at all motivated to extend this grounding.

但我不覺得美國聯邦航空局完全有動力擴展這一基礎。

I think they want to make sure that everything is covered and they are doing their job quite frankly.

我認為他們希望確保所有內容都被涵蓋，並且他們正在坦誠地開展工作。

This other thing came up, and it is such a remote chance that anything would go wrong.

這件事又出現了，而且發生任何事情的機會都太渺茫了。

But in this environment, no one wants that remote chance.

但在這種環境下，沒有人想要那個遙遠的機會。

So Boeing readily agreed with that.

所以波音欣然同意了這一點。

And we're fine with that as well, by the way.

順便說一句，我們也很好。

It's -- I wished we had known it sooner so it could have been worked on sooner.

這是 - 我希望我們早點知道它，這樣它就可以早點工作了。

And I will admit to those thoughts.

我會承認這些想法。

But no, I think it's all set up very well.

但是不，我認為這一切都設置得很好。

And so unless we learn something new, it feels like our assumed time line is a reasonable one.

因此，除非我們學到新東西，否則感覺我們假設的時間線是合理的。

Anything you want to add there, Mike?

邁克，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think that's right.

不，我認為這是對的。

I think the FAA is just better focused on a high-quality review, dotting their Is, crossing their Ts, making sure that they've addressed any type of unknown risk out there.

我認為 FAA 更好地專注於高質量的審查，點綴他們的 Is，跨越他們的 T，確保他們已經解決了任何類型的未知風險。

And once they're comfortable with that, they will issue the guidance to go forward.

一旦他們對此感到滿意，他們就會發布繼續前進的指導。

Tom, you want to talk about the reintroduction?

湯姆，你想談談重新引入嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think -- so I think, Rajeev, there's just so much media on the topic.

我想——所以我想，Rajeev，關於這個話題的媒體太多了。

I think it's going to increase as the aircraft begins to be reintroduced to service, and I think there are certainly going to be some people who book away from the MAX for some period of time.

我認為隨著飛機開始重新投入使用，它會增加，而且我認為肯定會有一些人在一段時間內離開 MAX 預訂。

I think it's going to be less than we might expect, maybe shorter duration than we expect.

我認為這將比我們預期的要少，也許持續時間比我們預期的要短。

And I think we've done a pretty good job honestly of understanding where not just our customer but even non-Southwest customers' heads are at with respect to the MAX aircraft and their intent to fly in all of those kind of things.

而且我認為我們在了解 MAX 飛機以及他們在所有這些事情上飛行的意圖方面，不僅我們的客戶而且甚至非西南客戶的頭腦在哪裡方面做得很好。

And what's really interesting is our customers -- so there's different ways to break all this above.

真正有趣的是我們的客戶——所以有不同的方法可以打破上述所有這些。

We're spending a lot of time actually with customers.

我們實際上花了很多時間與客戶在一起。

And our customers' perception of Southwest has not changed one iota, not at all, in terms of their intent to fly, their trust in Southwest, the confidence they have in Southwest, et cetera, et cetera.

我們的客戶對西南航空的看法並沒有改變一丁點，就他們的飛行意圖、他們對西南航空的信任、他們對西南航空的信心等等而言，一點也沒有改變。

So obviously, based all that, we're working through a very robust part of our return-to-service plan, if you will.

很明顯，基於這一切，如果您願意的話，我們正在努力完成我們的恢復服務計劃的一個非常強大的部分。

I mean there's a big piece for Mike in the operational side.

我的意思是邁克在運營方面有很大的貢獻。

There's a big piece for the commercial side, and there's a big piece for marketing and communication in terms of how we want to communicate.

商業方面有很大一部分，就我們想要如何溝通而言，營銷和溝通方面也有很大一部分。

And we're going through that.

我們正在經歷那個。

It's going to be a very robust plan.

這將是一個非常穩健的計劃。

I think one of the questions that's -- I've been asked several times is what if a customer doesn't want to fly, are you going to be flexible?

我認為其中一個問題——我被問過好幾次了，如果客戶不想坐飛機怎麼辦，你會靈活嗎？

And obviously, yes, we're going to be flexible if the customer has an issue flying on a MAX initially.

顯然，是的，如果客戶最初在 MAX 上飛行時遇到問題，我們將變得靈活。

And to be honest with you, we have customers change flights all the time, so it's not a big change for us.

老實說，我們有客戶一直在更換航班，所以這對我們來說並不是什麼大的變化。

In fact, I'm not sure what percent but a massive percent of our itinerary has changed.

事實上，我不確定我們的行程有百分之多少但很大一部分發生了變化。

So that's not a big deal for us.

所以這對我們來說沒什麼大不了的。

I think that we're just going to have to be flexible for a while as our customers get comfortable and those that aren't.

我認為我們將不得不在一段時間內保持靈活性，因為我們的客戶感到舒適而那些不舒適。

But we're very aware of it.

但我們非常清楚這一點。

We're thinking through it all, and I feel pretty confident where we are.

我們正在考慮這一切，我對我們所處的位置充滿信心。

Yes.

是的。

And I do, too.

我也是。

And we're going to have to have a communications campaign.

我們將不得不開展一場宣傳活動。

We're good at that.

我們擅長這一點。

And just know that our pilots will play a key role in this communication.

並且只知道我們的飛行員將在這種溝通中發揮關鍵作用。

They're the ones obviously that have to be comfortable and they're the ones that are credible.

顯然，他們是那些必須感到舒適的人，而且他們是可信的人。

So nobody in this company, and especially our pilots, is going to do anything that they deem to be unsafe.

因此，這家公司中的任何人，尤其是我們的飛行員，都不會做任何他們認為不安全的事情。

So then it's just a matter of convincing our constituents of that, and we're going to work hard to do that.

因此，這只是讓我們的選民相信這一點的問題，我們將努力做到這一點。

All right.

好的。

Well, that does it for the analyst portion of the call.

好吧，這對於電話的分析師部分來說是這樣。

Thank you guys for joining us.

謝謝你們加入我們。

And of course, if you have follow-ups, just give me a ring.

當然，如果您有後續行動，請給我打個電話。

All right.

好的。

And ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin with our media portion of today's call.

女士們，先生們，我們現在開始今天電話會議的媒體部分。

I'd like to first introduce Ms. Laurie Barnett, Managing Director of Communications and Outreach.

我想首先介紹一下傳播和外聯部董事總經理 Laurie Barnett 女士。

Thank you, Greg.

謝謝你，格雷格。

I'd like to welcome members of the media to our call today.

我想歡迎媒體成員參加我們今天的電話會議。

And before we begin taking questions, Greg, would you please give instructions on how everyone should queue up for a question?

在我們開始提問之前，格雷格，請您指導一下每個人應該如何排隊等待提問？

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Mary Schlangenstein with Bloomberg News.

（操作員說明）我們將向彭博新聞社的 Mary Schlangenstein 提出第一個問題。

I just had 2 really quick questions.

我只有 2 個非常快速的問題。

The first is, Gary, in your earlier remarks, you mentioned 20,000 cancellations.

首先是，加里，在你之前的評論中，你提到了 20,000 次取消。

Are those all MAX cancellations?

這些都是MAX取消嗎？

And over what time frame did those occur?

這些發生在什麼時間範圍內？

Mike, that was total.

邁克，那是全部。

I think normally, you'd have 3,000 cancellations.

我認為通常情況下，您將有 3,000 次取消。

So to put it into perspective -- but I would attribute the vast majority of that excess to the MAX.

因此，從長遠來看——但我會將大部分過剩歸因於 MAX。

Yes.

是的。

Mary, when we talk about the 20,000 cancellations, they really come into 2 forums with the schedule out there to sell the MAX, and we had to change the schedule.

瑪麗，當我們談到 20,000 次取消時，他們真的來到了 2 個論壇，上面有銷售 MAX 的時間表，我們不得不更改時間表。

So before we operated that schedule, we pulled a lot of flights, I don't know, flights we pulled out we included in that 20,000 cancellation number.

所以在我們操作那個時間表之前，我們取消了很多航班，我不知道，我們取消的航班包括在那個 20,000 個取消號碼中。

And secondly, once we did operate the schedule, because we were so close into the booking curve and trying to reaccommodate as many customers as we could, we operated April and May without any spare aircraft, which I would attribute to the MAX.

其次，一旦我們完成了時間表，因為我們非常接近預訂曲線並試圖重新容納盡可能多的客戶，我們在沒有任何備用飛機的情況下在 4 月和 5 月運行，我認為這歸功於 MAX。

And so as you have weather events or unexpected maintenance events or hailstorms or other things like that, we just had no way to recover the airplanes, and that drove the cancellations up also.

因此，當您遇到天氣事件或意外維護事件或冰雹或其他類似情況時，我們無法恢復飛機，這也導致了取消。

So as Gary said, that was around 12,000, 11,000, 12,000 cancellations for the quarter just in the operations.

正如加里所說，僅在運營期間，該季度的取消量約為 12,000、11,000、12,000 次。

And those numbers are normally under 3,000.

這些數字通常低於 3,000。

So the vast majority of that 20,000 cancellation number is MAX-related.

因此，這 20,000 個取消數量中的絕大多數與 MAX 相關。

And that 20,000 is just for the second quarter?

那20,000只是第二季度的嗎？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

My other question real quick was on the Newark gates.

我的另一個問題很快就在紐瓦克的大門上。

What happens to those?

那些會發生什麼？

Are you able to sublease those gates to somebody else?

你能把這些大門轉租給別人嗎？

It's a month-to-month lease, so no.

這是一個月租，所以沒有。

Okay.

好的。

And are you re-leasing them from United?

你是從美聯航重新租用它們嗎？

I don't know.

我不知道。

I don't think so.

我不這麼認為。

But it's -- No.

但它——不。

No.

不。

It has to be -- yes, it's with month-to-month and with the Port Authority.

它必須是——是的，它是按月和港務局的。

So...

所以...

Next from The Wall Street Journal, we have Alison Sider.

下一位來自《華爾街日報》，我們有艾莉森·賽德。

My question is do you think -- do you feel that -- do you feel like Boeing misled or provided any incomplete information at Southwest about the MAX, either about the AOA disagree alerts, it's about MCAS more broadly or about whether it was safe to fly after Lion Air or really anything else?

我的問題是你認為 - 你覺得 - 你覺得波音誤導或在西南提供任何關於 MAX 的不完整信息，無論是關於 AOA 不同意警報，它是關於更廣泛的 MCAS 還是關於它是否安全飛獅航空還是其他什麼？

Well, I don't think there was any malintent at all.

好吧，我認為根本沒有任何惡意。

I think, Alison, obviously, in hindsight, we wish that this never happened.

我想，艾莉森，顯然，事後看來，我們希望這永遠不會發生。

We wish that all the things that are being done now were done then.

我們希望現在正在做的所有事情都在那時完成。

And all the knowledge that we have now, yes, we wish we had it then.

我們現在擁有的所有知識，是的，我們希望我們當時擁有它。

So there were judgments made about the remoteness of the risk, and I think that's why Boeing behaved the way they did.

因此，人們對風險的偏遠做出了判斷，我認為這就是波音採取這種方式行事的原因。

Got it.

知道了。

So you don't, from your perspective, see that there was anything criminal that happened?

所以，從你的角度來看，你沒有看到發生了什麼犯罪事件嗎？

No.

不。

No.

不。

Now -- and again, I get asked about Boeing a lot.

現在——又一次，我被問到很多關於波音的問題。

Boeing is a great company, and Boeing is important to not just Southwest but our country.

波音是一家偉大的公司，波音不僅對西南航空很重要，對我們國家也很重要。

And they have a problem.

他們有一個問題。

They recognize the problem, and I'm very confident they're focused on addressing the problem and taking care of their customers.

他們認識到問題，我非常有信心他們專注於解決問題並照顧他們的客戶。

So it's a tough situation, and I have no doubt that the mistakes have been made.

所以這是一個艱難的局面，我毫不懷疑已經犯了錯誤。

Some are harder for us to evaluate than others.

有些對我們來說比其他的更難評估。

But my focus at this point is to get the problem solved, get the MAX restored to service, have Boeing do its job in terms of establishing confidence with customers, as in the flying public.

但在這一點上，我的重點是解決問題，讓 MAX 恢復服務，讓波音公司在與客戶建立信心方面做好工作，就像在飛行公眾中一樣。

And obviously, we just need to be comfortable that all the issues that have been raised have been adequately addressed.

顯然，我們只需要對提出的所有問題都得到充分解決感到滿意。

And I think that's where, with what Mike was covering earlier, we all want to see what the airworthiness directive provides for.

我認為這就是邁克之前所涵蓋的內容，我們都想看看適航指令提供了什麼。

We'll want to go through the training, and we'll want to validate for ourselves that it all works as intended.

我們希望通過培訓，並且我們希望自己驗證這一切都按預期工作。

So -- but no, they're a great company.

所以——但不，他們是一家很棒的公司。

They're great people to work with.

他們是可以一起工作的好人。

This is a terrible situation and I hate that they're in it.

這是一個可怕的情況，我討厭他們身處其中。

And obviously, there are many of us that have been affected, not just Southwest.

顯然，我們中的許多人都受到了影響，而不僅僅是西南航空。

There are a lot of people that have been affected here.

這裡有很多人受到影響。

So we just -- we need to keep our eye on the ball and solve the problem and move forward.

所以我們只是 - 我們需要關注球並解決問題並繼續前進。

And next, we have Tracy Rucinski with Reuters.

接下來，我們有路透社的 Tracy Rucinski。

You've said that you expect some of your MAX deliveries to slip into 2020.

您曾說過，您預計部分 MAX 交付將滑到 2020 年。

How confident are you that you will receive those planes when you need them given that planes are stacking up at Boeing facilities?

鑑於飛機在波音工廠堆積如山，您對在需要時收到這些飛機的信心有多大？

And can you tell us a little bit more about the technical kits that Boeing is preparing to help that delivery process?

你能告訴我們更多關於波音準備幫助交付過程的技術套件嗎？

Mike, I'll let you talk on the latter.

邁克，我會讓你談談後者。

Well, we're sort of in a range of we're not confident to we're 100% confident, and I don't know where to put a percent -- percentage on it.

好吧，我們有點在我們沒有信心到我們 100% 有信心的範圍內，而且我不知道在哪裡放一個百分比 - 百分比。

But no, there's no way we could be 100% confident that we're going to hit our assumed time line.

但是不，我們不可能 100% 確信我們會達到我們假設的時間線。

And this is new territory for Boeing to unground airplanes, so we're not quite sure of that.

對於波音公司來說，這是不接地的飛機的新領域，所以我們不太確定。

Then we've got -- we have to support that with our own resources and so does the FAA.

然後我們得到了——我們必須用我們自己的資源來支持它，FAA 也是如此。

So yes, all that has to be estimated at this point, and with a view towards, we're going to have to be flexible.

所以是的，所有這些都必須在這一點上進行估計，並且為了實現這一目標，我們將不得不保持靈活性。

So we'll learn as we go, I'm sure, and I would assume that we'll get better at it as we start ungrounding the airplanes and that maybe it will accelerate.

所以我們會邊走邊學，我敢肯定，我會假設當我們開始讓飛機不接地時，我們會做得更好，也許它會加速。

But no, I mean, there's -- yes, there's a lot of uncertainties surrounding exactly what that will look like when it starts.

但是不，我的意思是，有 - 是的，有很多不確定性圍繞著它開始時的樣子。

Yes.

是的。

So Tracy, this is Mike.

所以特蕾西，這是邁克。

We have 41 airplanes on a delivery schedule to take in 2019.

我們有 41 架飛機按計劃在 2019 年交付。

And just my preference is certainty.

只是我的偏好是確定的。

And so if they made all those airplanes and they put them in a Boeing storage facility, that just increases a pile of 700-ish airplanes out there.

因此，如果他們製造了所有這些飛機並將它們放在波音的存儲設施中，那隻會增加一堆 700 架左右的飛機。

And to get those out of storage, we have -- we're part of the bigger economy.

為了將這些從存儲中取出，我們擁有 - 我們是更大經濟體的一部分。

So it makes sense to us to have some of those airplanes rescheduled into 2020 where we can take them right off of production line in a normal course of business.

因此，對我們來說，將其中一些飛機重新安排到 2020 年是有意義的，我們可以在正常的業務過程中將它們從生產線中取出。

That would give us more certainty and less complexity.

這會給我們更多的確定性和更少的複雜性。

As to the airplanes that are coming out of storage, what I understand is that most of the fixes, at least at this point, are software upgrades to the airplane.

至於即將出庫的飛機，我的理解是大多數修復，至少在這一點上，是對飛機的軟件升級。

So there will be a service bulletin that will come out from Boeing that the FAA will mandate as an airworthiness directive.

因此，波音公司將發布一份服務公告，美國聯邦航空局將強制其作為適航指令。

And then we will take that requirement and we will perform hopefully a software upgrade to the airplane.

然後我們將接受該要求，並希望對飛機進行軟件升級。

That is not complicated to do.

這樣做並不復雜。

There might be other work that we may need to do.

我們可能還需要做其他工作。

And if we will, we will do those things also.

如果我們願意，我們也會做這些事情。

And then as I mentioned earlier, there's a second piece in terms of the airworthiness directive, which will be associated with pilot training.

然後正如我之前提到的，還有關於適航指令的第二部分，它將與飛行員培訓相關聯。

And so long as it is -- does not require simulator time, we will get our pilots through that training in 30 days.

只要是——不需要模擬器時間，我們將讓我們的飛行員在 30 天內完成培訓。

So the technical kits, are those related to the software upgrade?

那麼技術包，與軟件升級有關嗎？

I'm not for sure what the technical kits are right now because I don't know what the final fix is going to be for the airplane.

我不確定現在的技術套件是什麼，因為我不知道飛機的最終修復是什麼。

But at least my interpretation of your question is what Mike is describing as a software is the technical package.

但至少我對你的問題的解釋是邁克所描述的軟件是技術包。

So I don't know what else -- I'm with Mike.

所以我不知道還有什麼——我和邁克在一起。

I don't know what else it would be.

我不知道還會是什麼。

So all we know is that we're going to update the MCAS software and then the software -- this piece of firmware in the flight control system.

所以我們所知道的是，我們將更新 MCAS 軟件，然後是軟件——飛行控制系統中的這個固件。

And then the only thing I want to make -- yes, I don't know if you heard our earlier analyst call.

然後我唯一想做的就是——是的，我不知道你是否聽到我們之前的分析師電話。

But the simulator training we don't feel is necessary because our pilots are extensively trained in the simulator and for the kinds of scenarios that this software is being modified for.

但是我們認為沒有必要進行模擬器培訓，因為我們的飛行員在模擬器中接受了廣泛的培訓，並且針對該軟件正在修改的各種場景進行了培訓。

So there will be training, but we think that it can be done on a computer-based approach.

所以會有培訓，但我們認為可以通過基於計算機的方法來完成。

And that's what the FAA seems to be leaning towards anyway.

無論如何，這就是 FAA 似乎傾向於的方向。

But we're comfortable with that.

但我們對此感到滿意。

Next from the Associated Press, we have David Koenig.

接下來是美聯社，我們有 David Koenig。

This is really quick for Gary.

這對加里來說真的很快。

Just to clarify, I think it was the last question on the analyst portion that FAA -- you said that FAA is reviewing MCAS and signed off on it, and all that got left to check is that issue that came up last month.

澄清一下，我認為這是美國聯邦航空局關於分析師部分的最後一個問題——你說美國聯邦航空局正在審查 MCAS 並簽署了它，剩下要檢查的是上個月出現的那個問題。

I wasn't clear, did you hear that from Boeing?

我不清楚，你是從波音那裡聽到的嗎？

Or did you hear that from the FAA?

還是您從 FAA 那裡聽到的？

Yes.

是的。

And David, that's not exactly what I said.

大衛，我不是這麼說的。

So those are Gary's words.

這是加里的話。

That's not the FAA telling -- they, in fact, will not tell us whether they have "signed off" on MCAS because they want it all comprehensively together, and I don't blame them.

這不是美國聯邦航空局的說法——事實上，他們不會告訴我們他們是否已經“簽署”了 MCAS，因為他們希望將所有內容全面整合在一起，我不怪他們。

I think all I was saying is that based on the status reports that we've gotten from Boeing and from the FAA on where they stand, that I don't think sense that there is any more work to be done by either the Boeing or the FAA on that piece.

我想我所說的只是根據我們從波音公司和美國聯邦航空局獲得的關於他們所處位置的狀態報告，我認為波音公司或美國聯邦航空局沒有更多工作要做。美國聯邦航空局在那件作品上。

I'm not speaking for them.

我不是為他們說話。

I'm just telling you that we're not getting any sense that there's any more continuing on those functions by either Boeing or the FAA.

我只是告訴你，我們沒有任何感覺波音或美國聯邦航空局繼續執行這些職能。

What is still now in suspense is Boeing has gone off to work on this second issue.

現在仍然懸而未決的是，波音公司已經著手解決第二個問題。

And until they get that done, we're all sitting here waiting for that construction to be completed.

在他們完成之前，我們都坐在這裡等待建造完成。

And then I suppose they'll show it to us, and they'll show it to the FAA and we'll know more.

然後我想他們會向我們展示它，他們會向美國聯邦航空局展示它，我們會知道更多。

But I'm not expecting any activity on that with us until September.

但我預計在 9 月之前我們不會有任何活動。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

So you don't want to explain where you got that sense that that's your reading of the situation?

所以你不想解釋你從哪裡得到那種感覺，那就是你對情況的解讀？

Well, I thought I did, yes.

好吧，我以為我做到了，是的。

But based on the discussions that we've had with Boeing and the FAA, they've implied that, if you will.

但根據我們與波音和美國聯邦航空局的討論，如果你願意的話，他們已經暗示了這一點。

So -- but they're -- but I've asked them if they would separate it.

所以 - 但他們是 - 但我已經問過他們是否會分開它。

And they told me, "We will not." So I want to be -- I hopefully made that clear.

他們告訴我，“我們不會。”所以我想成為——我希望能說清楚。

No, they won't tell us officially that they have signed off.

不，他們不會正式告訴我們他們已經簽字。

And like I said, I don't blame them.

就像我說的，我不怪他們。

They want to get the rest of it done and see it all together and make sure all those systems work as planned.

他們希望完成其餘的工作並一起查看所有內容，並確保所有這些系統按計劃工作。

But the good news is it's our sense that all of that work is in fact done, and we're just waiting on the second piece.

但好消息是，我們感覺所有這些工作實際上都已完成，我們只是在等待第二部分。

And we have time for one more question.

我們還有時間再問一個問題。

And we'll take that final question from Allison Schaefers with the Honolulu Star-Advertiser.

我們將回答 Allison Schaefers 與檀香山明星廣告商的最後一個問題。

I just wanted to see if you could be a little bit more specific about when you anticipate selling flights for Southwest Hawaii service for previously announced San Diego, Sacramento, Lihue and Hilo routes?

我只是想看看您是否可以更具體地說明您預計何時為之前宣布的聖地亞哥、薩克拉門托、里胡和希洛航線銷售夏威夷西南航線的航班？

And is actual service on those routes expected to start this year or not likely until 2020 based on the ramp-up time needed?

根據所需的啟動時間，這些路線的實際服務預計會在今年開始，還是可能要到 2020 年才能開始？

Well, I should try, I guess, to disclose our schedule intent.

好吧，我想我應該嘗試透露我們的日程安排意圖。

I think I'm not going to do that today.

我想我今天不會那樣做。

But thank you for wanting...

但是謝謝你想要...

But we're really excited and we're very -- we're really making some announcements soon.

但我們真的很興奮，我們非常 - 我們真的很快就會發布一些公告。

And I will tell you that all the things we said previously, we still mean, right?

而且我會告訴你，我們之前所說的所有事情，我們仍然是認真的，對吧？

So we still intend to serve Hawaii from Sacramento and San Diego, and we still intend to serve Kona and Lihue.

所以我們仍然打算從薩克拉門托和聖地亞哥為夏威夷服務，我們仍然打算為科納和里胡服務。

And we still intend to have interisland between Hilo and the other islands.

而且我們仍然打算在希洛和其他島嶼之間建立島際。

So everything we said is still spot on.

所以我們所說的一切仍然是正確的。

So we just have a little more work to do still, and we're working on our schedules right now.

所以我們還有一點工作要做，我們現在正在按計劃工作。

We're not ready to announce it, but we can't wait to begin those flights as well.

我們還沒有準備好宣布它，但我們也等不及要開始這些航班了。

So -- and I'll tell you, the reception we've had from the local communities has been phenomenal, and we could not be more excited, as you heard from our very robust aloha when you said that.

所以 - 我會告訴你，我們從當地社區得到的接待非常好，我們非常興奮，正如你從我們非常強大的 aloha 中聽到的那樣。

So thanks.

那謝謝啦。

Is there any way you can -- okay, any way you can elaborate a little bit with some specifics on the demand that you've seen for Hawaii?

有什麼方法可以——好的，有什麼方法可以詳細說明您對夏威夷的需求的一些細節？

Well, I don't have any at my fingertips.

好吧，我手頭上沒有任何東西。

I don't have any specific demand numbers.

我沒有任何具體的需求數字。

What I can tell you is that as I said in my comments earlier, the load factors are significantly higher than what we're experiencing across the system.

我可以告訴你的是，正如我之前在評論中所說，負載因子明顯高於我們在整個系統中所經歷的。

And keep in mind, we just announced record load factors for the entire company, and our Hawaii business is surpassing that.

請記住，我們剛剛宣布了整個公司創紀錄的載客率，而我們的夏威夷業務正在超越這一數字。

In terms of actual demand, I kind of think about it in terms of load and it's just phenomenal.

就實際需求而言，我從負載的角度來考慮它，這簡直是驚人的。

And that's a true for interisland as well as for the California to the islands routes.

這對於島際以及加利福尼亞到島嶼的路線都是如此。

So as I said, we have 6 mainland California to the islands and we have 8 round trips, and it's just -- it's going phenomenally.

所以正如我所說，我們有 6 個加州大陸到這些島嶼，我們有 8 次往返，這只是 - 它的進展非常驚人。

It really is.

確實如此。

So...

所以...

And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our question-and-answer session.

女士們，先生們，這確實結束了我們的問答環節。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to Ms. Barnett for any additional or closing remarks.

目前，我想將電話轉回給 Barnett 女士，以獲取任何補充或結束語。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

If you all have any other questions, our communications group is standing by to assist at (214) 792-4847.

如果您還有任何其他問題，我們的溝通小組隨時待命，可致電 (214) 792-4847 提供幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call.

女士們先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for joining.

感謝您的加入。