西南航空 (LUV) 2015 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Southwest Airlines third-quarter 2015 conference call.

My name is Tom and I'll be moderating today's call.

This call is being recorded and a replay will be available on Southwest.com in the Investor Relations section.

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Ms. Marcy Brand, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

Please go ahead, ma'am.

Thank you, Tom, and good morning, everyone.

Welcome to today's call to discuss third-quarter 2015 results.

Joining the call today, we have Gary Kelly, Chairman, President and CEO; Tammy Romo, Executive Vice President and CFO; Bob Jordan, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer; and Mike Van De Ven, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer.

Please note today's call will include forward-looking statements and because of these statements are based on the Company's current intent, expectations, and projections, they are not guarantees of future performance and a variety of factors could cause actual results to differ materially.

As this call will include references to non-GAAP results, excluding special items, please reference this morning's press release in the Investor Relations section of Southwest.com for further information regarding forward-looking statements and reconciliations of non-GAAP results to GAAP results.

At this time, I would like to go ahead and turn the call over to Gary for opening remarks.

Thank you, Marcy, and good morning, everybody.

And thank you all for joining our third-quarter 2015 earnings call.

We're celebrating.

This is a terrific quarter and really a terrific year.

I'm very proud of all of our people, all 47,000 of them, and I want to thank them and congratulate them on these stellar results.

This is the culmination of years of hard work on their part, as well as daily dedication to running a great airline and taking great care of our customers.

While it is true that the majority of the 71% surge in our earnings per share was due to a dramatic drop in jet fuel prices, there are a lot of other good things happening in this quarter.

Our Rapid Rewards program continues to grow in terms of members and revenues, and obviously, the amended credit card deal is a highlight for the quarter and for future years.

Next, our core passenger business overall is solid and steady, and that's despite the very brisk competitive environment that we find ourselves in.

I'm especially pleased with our record load factor and record revenues, considering the aggressive Dallas Love Field expansion, the transition of the AirTran markets this year, the slot acquisitions at DCA and LaGuardia, and our continuing international expansion.

Next, our cost performance was also very good.

Profit sharing was up significantly, and, of course, that's a very good thing.

Our nine-month accrual for profit sharing was a record $484 million and well earned by our people, and of course they, too, are benefiting from dramatically lower fuel prices.

As far as the year 2015 goes, I just want to recap our plan for perspective.

This year is a confluence of events, some planned and some not, but the result is spectacular.

We have significant opportunities to expand Dallas Love Field, Washington Reagan, LaGuardia International, Houston International, all converging here in 2015.

While we have significant opportunities, we also have significant access to low-cost incremental capacity to pursue these opportunities, and that's through the restoration of our aircraft utilization to more historic levels.

And our fleet over the last several years has been underutilized as we've been going through the merger process.

And then finally, with dramatically lower fuel prices, we've had the cushion to mitigate this expansion risk, and actually have been very fortunate to have that help to drive record profits at the same time that we're growing.

So we've been able to significantly augment our revenue production this year also with the amended credit card deal.

So all of this has supported our growth plan of 7% in ASMs for 2015 and still resulted in record earnings and returns, and our plans for 2016 are unchanged from our previous guidance.

We are expecting unit-revenue growth year over year in fourth-quarter 2015, which will be an improvement from the third quarter, and that's primarily because our developing markets are continuing to mature rapidly.

So we expect to end this year with roughly 700 airplanes and add roughly 15 aircraft next year, again, for an available seat-mile growth of between 5% and 6%.

So the work over the last five years, in particular, has come together exceptionally well.

We are exceptionally well positioned for future growth, and that will continue, dependent upon our continued success with our low-fare brand, which, of course, is built with low cost and our transparency.

And we're exceptionally well positioned for future growth, but also dependent upon our continued success with our customer service, and especially the hospitality of our people, which is something that Southwest is beloved by our customers for.

So with that very brief overview, I would like to turn it over to Tammy Romo, our CFO, who will take us through the quarterly results.

Thank you, Gary, and welcome, everyone.

We are pleased to report incredibly strong third-quarter results marked by many records.

Our third-quarter earnings, excluding special items, were a record $623 million, or $0.94 per diluted share, an increase of 71% over last year's $0.55 per diluted share.

Our GAAP net income was $584 million, including $39 million in special items.

In addition to our usual special items related to out-of-period fuel hedging adjustments, we had two other large special items this quarter.

First, we recorded an expense of $140 million associated with the tentative agreement with our pilots, in accordance with accounting guidance.

And second, as we discussed last quarter, we had a special revenue item of $172 million related to the required change in accounting methodology as a result of our amended credit card agreement with Chase.

That was effective in July.

Our operating income, excluding special items, was a third-quarter record, $1 billion, which produced nearly a 700 basis point improvement and operating margin of 20.3%.

And to top off these records, we produced a 12-month trailing pretax return on invested capital, excluding special items of 31.1%.

So congratulations to all of our terrific employees on these outstanding achievements.

Total operating revenues in third quarter, also a record, were $5.3 billion, up 10.8% year over year on a capacity increase of 7.6%.

Passenger revenues were also a record for $4.7 billion.

Demand for our low fares remained very strong throughout the quarter, resulting in nearly 9% growth in traffic and an all-time quarterly high record load factor.

The yield in environment remains soft, but stabilized, and sequentially our third-quarter unit revenue trends were above average, driven by our credit card agreement with Chase, which, again, was amended in July.

Our third-quarter operating revenues included a $300 million benefit from the amended Chase contract and resulting change in accounting.

Included in that benefit was a one-time, non-cash adjustment of $172 million that reduced the deferred revenue liability, and thereby, increased revenue.

This was recorded as a special revenue adjustment and was excluded from the RASM that we reported.

The remaining $130 million incremental benefit was due to the improved economics of the co-brand contract and required accounting treatment combined.

This $130 million of benefit was about a 2 to 3 point improvement to RASM, and we expect a similar benefit in fourth-quarter 2015, which is incorporated into the guidance I will discuss here with you shortly.

With the amended agreement with Chase and change in accounting treatment, our third quarter of 2015 passenger revenues would have been $40 million higher and our other revenues would have been $170 million lower, for a net incremental reduction to operating revenues of $130 million, and of course, we wouldn't have had the $172 million special revenue adjustment.

As Gary said, our Rapid Rewards program overall is a huge success and continues to contribute significant incremental revenue year over year.

On a unit basis, our third-quarter operating revenues declined 0.4% on a 7.6% capacity increase, and we are pleased with this very solid performance, especially considering the impact of increased gauge and stage length, which impacted our third-quarter, year-over-year unit revenues by about 2 points, as well as the high percentage of development markets, which impacted year-over-year unit revenues by 1 additional point.

For third quarter, about 18% of our network was under development.

We are delighted, as we have been talking about here for some time with the performance of these new markets, which are performing at or above our expectations.

And Dallas continues to outperform the system on margins and returns, with robust demand in all phases of our Dallas growth.

International is also developing as planned, and, again, very excited to begin international service out of Houston last week.

So looking ahead to fourth quarter so far, demand for our low fares remains strong.

Based on our current bookings and revenue trends, we are estimating fourth-quarter RASM will increase approximately 1% year over year, including about $130 million estimated benefit from the Chase agreement and corresponding change in accounting treatment.

Considering the estimated 2 percentage point impact of more stage and gauge, as well as another 1 point impact from 12% of our network under development, all year over year, we are very pleased with our fourth-quarter revenue outlook.

Turning to freight and other revenues, we're also very pleased there.

And we currently expect our fourth-quarter rate revenues to be comparable to third quarter this year.

And as I've discussed previously, other revenues increased significantly year over year, and that was largely due to the amended Chase agreement.

And in addition to certain ancillary revenues, such as EarlyBird and upgraded boarding, those were also strong contributors to our other revenue growth.

The growth in such ancillary revenues completely offset the loss of AirTran's ancillary revenues, so we were, again, just a very strong performance on the ancillary revenue side.

We expect another significant year-over-year increase in fourth-quarter 2015 other revenues, largely due to the combined impact of the Chase agreement and required accounting treatment change.

So now I'll walk through our cost performance briefly.

Third-quarter unit costs, excluding special items, decreased approximately 8% year over year due to substantially lower fuel prices and cost control, particularly fleet modernization.

Our economic fuel costs decreased almost $300 million year over year, driven by the 25% decline in fuel prices and an improvement in fuel burn.

Our fuel price per gallon declined $0.74 to $2.20, versus $2.94 in third quarter of last year.

And our third-quarter fuel burn improved 1.8% year over year, reducing our third-quarter fuel cost by approximately $18 million.

And we are on track to achieve our target of at least 74 that we mentioned in November, last November at our Investor Day.

Based on our hedge position and market prices as of Monday, we expect our fourth-quarter 2015 fuel price per gallon to be in the $2.05 to $2.10 range, which is well below fourth quarter of last year's $2.62 per gallon.

And since last fall, we've, just remind everybody, we've significantly participated in the market decline, and we currently expect 2015 economic fuel costs to decline approximately $1.3 billion over last year.

Excluding fuel and special items, our unit costs were up less than 1%, which was largely driven by the 77% year-over-year increase in profit sharing.

And our profit-sharing expense accrued thus far is a record $484 million, as Gary mentioned.

Excluding profit sharing and special items, our non-fuel unit cost decreased 1.6% year over year, which was better than expected due to some spend, particularly in advertising and technology related to project costs that has been shifted to fourth-quarter 2015 and better-than-expected airport costs.

Our fleet modernization remains on track to produce an estimated $700 million EBIT this year, even with the drop in fuel prices.

Based on current cost trends, we expect total fourth-quarter unit costs, excluding fuel, special items, and profit sharing, to be comparable to fourth-quarter last year's $0.0822.

Now I'll move to the balance sheet and cash flow.

Our investment-grade balance sheet and cash flows remain very strong, and we ended the quarter with $3.1 billion in cash and short-term investments.

Our free cash flow was $1.6 billion, with $583 million in third quarter alone.

Our very strong cash flow generation has allowed us to deliver on our commitment to return significant value back to our shareholders, while we continue to reinvest prudently in our business.

During the third quarter, we repurchased $500 million in common stock, which brings our share repurchases this year to nearly $1.2 billion thus far.

We received approximately 9.7 million shares under the $500 million accelerated share repurchase during -- and we expected to receive the remaining 25% of total shares expected by the end of this month.

We currently have $700 million remaining of the $1.5 billion repurchase program that was authorized in May of this year.

We've also repaid $170 million in debt and capital-lease obligations thus far this year, and our leverage, including off-balance sheet aircraft leases is in the low to mid 30% range.

We continue to estimate our 2015 capital spend to be approximately $1.8 billion, and that excludes assets constructed for other, which is estimated to be in the $50 million to $100 million range net.

And that includes approximately $1.1 billion in aircraft spend.

And for 2016, we continue to estimate aircraft spend in the $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion range, with total CapEx estimated to be roughly $2 billion.

Turning to our fleet plans for just a quick minute, we ended third quarter with 692 aircraft in our fleet and continue to expect our fleet to end with roughly 700 by the end of this year.

And regarding capacity, our fourth-quarter available seat miles are estimated to increase year over year approximately 8.5% on year-over-year seat growth of 4.4%.

Our full-year capacity growth remains on pace to increase approximately 7% year over year, with seat growing only 2.9% year over year, which as you all know, is driven in large part by Dallas' new nonstop longer haul flying and also on Washington Reagan, LaGuardia, and our new international markets.

Our 2016 growth plans haven't changed, as Gary said, and we continue to expect to grow our available seat miles for the full year in the 5% to 6% range versus 2015.

And as a reminder, the vast majority of 2016's growth will simply be the annualized impact of 2015 capacity additions that we've discussed.

So in conclusion, we couldn't be more thrilled with our results this quarter, substantially lower fuel prices, along with solid revenues, and cost controls produced record earnings, and our balance sheet and cash flows remain strong.

And we continue to be disciplined with our approach to capital allocation, as evidenced by our very strong return on invested capital.

So with that brief overview, I would like to close, again, by thanking all of our employees for their hard work and outstanding contributions to these strong results.

Tom, with that, we're ready to take questions.

Thank you.

(Operator Instructions)

Thank you for waiting.

We'll now begin with our first question from Savi Syth with Raymond James.

Hey, good afternoon.

Just on the growth opportunity that I would like to discuss, you've talked about, I think that there is still being a substantial domestic growth opportunity here.

I was wondering, does that come from just routes that you're not in today that you want to add?

Or is it more from just increasing frequency and gaining share in the markets that you are in today, outside of obviously what happened in Dallas?

We have 85 domestic mainland, 48 state destinations today.

I don't believe we have many more dots that we can add to the route map.

So that's the first part of the answer.

Among the 85, we have a variety of opportunities to add non-stop segments.

And especially in short-haul markets, if those markets begin to return to pre-2000 traffic levels, we'll have a lot of opportunities to add frequencies in those markets as examples.

Great, Gary.

And you've also talked about, and I think I've seen you in articles talking about the potential to gain share in the long-haul market.

Now, again, going to Dallas, I understand that there was kind of an artificial holding back in that market.

But wonder if you can elaborate a little bit more on your comments on long-haul market share opportunity, and why it -- why maybe Southwest is lagging there and how you go about increasing that market share?

Savi, I think what you're picking up there was an interview that was done with Fortune, and I really think that's old news.

So that article was really recounting where we've come over the last decade.

So that was much more of a story 10 or 15 years ago.

Today, we're very pleased with the progress that we've made.

You're very familiar with the initiatives that we've been working on over the last five years.

So I think prospectively, that would not be our messaging today, that we believe that we can, quote, gain share in long-haul markets.

Now, in terms of the expansion opportunities that we have, just geographically, since we're just now getting started flying transborder, obviously those will be long-haul opportunities.

But that's really more a function of us building off of our domestic base, having a very small presence internationally, and having a lot of potential destinations that we can add to our route map.

So we're pleased with the customer experience as we have it today.

We're very pleased with the market performance, whether it's long, medium or short, and we're happy to have the 737-800 as a component of our fleet.

It's just performing exceptionally well.

That's helpful.

If I just may, what I'm trying to understand, Gary, is just the opportunity to grow 5% or 6% type levels in the future.

I'm trying to understand just how much of that comes from domestic?

I know [past] commentary on international has been more of this slow growth, and it's 1% of ASM, so it's a small base.

Just trying to figure out, as you look out over the next three, four years even, just how the growth will be -- what the composition of the growth and what level of growth is reasonable for Southwest?

Well, the only guidance I can give you on the growth rate is for 2016, and there we're going to grow 5% to 6%.

Next year, about 1 point or 2 of that will be international.

And beyond that, we'll just take that on a year-to-year basis and we'll pursue the opportunities that are the most advantageous for us.

Over time, I think that most of our growth opportunities in the future will skew towards domestic, but clearly, most of the -- virtually all of the new destinations will be international.

But we're not operating under a rote target either way.

We've got decisions that we're making still for, even for 2016, as to what we want to do with the additional capacity that we're adding next year.

And as Tammy's already pointed out, there's not much new planned for 2016 anyway, because most of it's just going to be the full-year effect of decisions that you're already familiar with here in 2015.

Got it.

All right, thank you, very helpful.

And we'll take our next question from Julie Yates with Credit Suisse.

[Thank you for] taking my question.

Realizing it's a little early to comment on 2016 unit cost trends, can you offer any color, at least directionally, on what we should expect in 2016, assuming the pilot deal is ratified?

And can we look at the Q4 run rate of flat as a good proxy?

Julie, you were breaking up a little bit there, but I believe that you were asking about our 2016 cost performance, if I picked your question up right.

Is that correct?

Correct.

Yes, I just said I know it's a little early, but can you offer any color directionally, assuming that the pilot deal is ratified?

And can we look at the Q4 run rate of flat as a good proxy as we move into next year?

Sure.

I can provide a little bit of color, but we are still working through our 2016 plan, so I'm not prepared to give you cost guidance here today, but just a couple of items of note, as you're thinking through 2016.

While I would expect ongoing benefit from our fleet modernization efforts, I wouldn't expect the year-over-year impact to be as significant as this year, since we're past the anniversary of the 717s.

So we'd still get some benefit there.

I would also anticipate some cost pressures, particularly salary, wages and benefits, as I think you noted.

And in addition, while we aren't prepared to provide an implementation date of our reservation system until we get past a couple of milestones here, I would encourage you to keep in mind that we would expect to have some training costs associated with that implementation as well.

But as always, I think we've demonstrated year in and year out that we're very diligent when it comes to our cost-control efforts, and we'll work hard here in 2016.

But until we have completed our planning efforts here for 2016, I'll hold off on giving you any specific guidance until later this year.

Tammy, I might just add -- (multiple speakers).

Tammy, to be clear, is that going to be later this year or will that be in January with Q4?

Well, it may be with Q4 with earnings.

I don't know, Julie.

But it will be later.

I'm just not prepared here today to give you specific guidance yet, simply because we're still working through our plan with respect to costs for 2016.

Julie, the only thing I was going to add to what Tammy said is that, again, to be clear, with the pilot tentative agreement, if that is ratified, that will be a cost -- for that work group, that will be a cost increase next year.

But that is an investment in our people; it's an investment in Southwest Airlines.

It gives us certainty that we can plan around, and obviously our objective here is to work together to grow Southwest Airlines.

So obviously, we're very pleased to have a tentative agreement, and we should know the results of that voting here in, I guess, two weeks.

Okay.

Gary, let me ask you -- it's something we had talked about I think during a headquarters visit back in May, about you guys continuing to focus on expanding your fundamental margins.

And so you're doing that again in the fourth quarter, now that your RASM is back to positive and your costs are flat.

Looking into next year, would you expect the spread for RASM to exceed the growth in CASM?

That will clearly be the target, and I would just, again, defer to Tammy and repeat what she said, which is, once we're ready, we'll provide the cost outlook for next year.

But part of the strategy with our growth in 2015/2016 is to allow this large percentage of markets that are under development, give them a chance to mature next year.

So the percentage of markets under development a year from now, I think, Bob, will be in about the 5% range?

Yes, very close.

So clearly, we'll set an expectation for some tailwinds here with RASM improvement, and do the best job we can to match that up with some of the cost pressures that Tammy has referred to for next year.

Clearly, that will be our objective.

And, Julie, the only other thing I would add to that, too, just keep in mind, we will have a full-year impact from the Chase agreement.

So just make sure to factor that into your thoughts as you're thinking about next year.

Okay, great.

Thank [you].

And you all, I know, will take some time to evaluate our revenue results, but there's quite a bit of noise in those numbers.

They look very solid to me.

When you tease apart the increase in the stage length, the increase in the gauge, some of the effective reclassification for accounting purposes from passenger revenues to other, there's quite a bit of noise there.

And it looks very good.

So it's just helpful that, even with the noise, the fourth-quarter number shows positive, so you don't have to go through a lot of this analysis.

But if you're careful when you look at the analysis, I think you'll be pretty impressed with the revenue performance here in the third quarter also.

I would agree.

Thank you.

And we'll take our next question from Rajeev Lalwani with Morgan Stanley.

Thanks for the time.

Just first on capacity growth as we look at next year, can you just talk about the cadence, and maybe compare the beginning of the year going towards the end of the year?

In terms of just capacity, Rajeev, yes, you'll see similar -- in terms of ASM growth, you'll see similar trends in the first quarter as you're seeing here in the fourth quarter.

And then it will, obviously, taper out as we go through the year.

Okay.

And then just on the, continuing on the last comment around the revenue environment, I was just hoping to get more color.

Gary, you touched on the brisk competitive environment, so just get your thoughts on what makes that calm down going forward?

Is it fuel?

Is it just lapping certain dynamics?

Just your thoughts there would be great.

Well, I'm chuckling because you're talking about competition and industry, et cetera.

So, we're doing well in this environment.

We're a low-cost carrier.

We're a low-fare brand.

And we're growing, and we love the competition, and we love being pro consumer.

So I think we'll continue to manage our growth according to our ability to generate appropriate returns, and we're going to continue to work very hard to deliver on our low-fare brand promise to our customers.

So, low fares is our specialty and our business, and we've been profitable for 42 years with that, so I would expect that will continue.

All right, thanks.

We'll take our next question from Darryl Genovesi with UBS.

Hi, guys.

Thanks for the time.

So, Gary, you've got a couple things going on.

I guess you've got a -- some new IT on the merchandising side.

At the same time, your average stage length continues to increase.

I just wondered if you could give us some updated thoughts on any, perhaps, big-picture changes to the product positioning that you're considering currently?

I know there's been various questions asked on this topic over the years.

We're just wondering how you're thinking currently about things like perhaps doing a premium economy, perhaps putting in more of a seat-selection ability in the main cabin, those types of opportunities.

Anything you could say there would be helpful.

You bet.

Again, yes, thanks for the question there.

And you're right, we are continuing to invest in the Company in various ways.

So we have investments under way that are physical in nature, in terms of airport capacity.

We just opened up Houston Hobby.

We've got a large project under way at LAX.

We've got a large project under way at Fort Lauderdale, which will create international flying capability there.

So that's one thing that we're doing that I think fits in somewhat with your question.

From a technology perspective, we're replacing our reservation system, but there's a broader commercial agenda that will roll out, Bob, over the next five years I would say?

A lot of it will come online sooner than that.

But that will give us significantly updated capabilities to pursue our commercial goals.

And then thirdly, we also have a similarly large agenda with Mike Van De Ven and his team on the operations side of the house.

So there's a lot of infrastructure investment taking place.

There is a lot of infrastructure spending, by the way, that will be occurring in 2016.

So that will be something that Tammy will want to share when we're ready here at a future date.

We're excited about all of that.

With respect to the customer experience, there is no question that we'll have better tools in the future to make more tactical decisions in terms of changes to the current approach.

Having said that, and looking at the current results and our expectation for 2016, I am very happy with our customer experience.

And our focus right now is very much on the basics.

It is using the tools that we have to improve the reliability of our operation, and also to invest in our people to improve the hospitality of our customer service.

And that we can do without new technology, and it's something that we're very excited about.

The technology I think will certainly enhance our ability to better execute against those two goals.

But we're real happy with the product that we have right now.

I think we've actually got opportunities to improve further, and the kinds of considerations that you're asking for I think something that we could think about in the future, but we have no plans to make any changes that are material along those lines.

Great.

Thanks for that.

And then, Tammy, on the fuel hedge margin, it looks like you reversed about half of what you had posted last quarter.

I think it looks like you've got about $200 million left.

Should that come through in Q4?

That's -- yes, that's correct.

We provided you the liability.

And for the remainder of 2015, I want to say that's in the $100 million to $125 million range.

I think it was $116 million.

Great.

Thanks very much.

And we'll take our next question from David Fintzen with Barclays.

Hey, good afternoon, everyone.

Question on the Wright Amendment flying: Now that you've got about a year under your belt, do you view the new flying as markets that just jump-started the typical market development cycle, where you got to that 18- to 24-month process and you got there quite fast?

Or do you think it's these markets from here develop, like they are not finished developing and they continue to go?

Well, it's both.

First of all, we've never had anything like this.

It's a pretty unique -- well, it's a very unique scenario.

And we were already in those markets already and had a lot of customers, and I know you know all of this.

So that clearly gave us a head start.

And it allowed us, in terms of our planning, if you go back 12 months before the launch of these flights, it allowed us to be more bold and more aggressive in just believing that those flights wouldn't be a drag on our earnings.

As we were -- our objective for 2013, 2014 and 2015 was to hit our earnings targets, and we've done that.

Having said that, while they've, out of the box, virtually every flight, not literally, but almost every flight has been very successful financially, they are still developing.

Any -- as you know, our flight activity is up 50%.

I believe the available seat mile capacity is up 188%.

We all know that is huge.

And there are bound to be some imperfections there that need to be tuned.

So we'll continue to look at our schedule, and we'll continue to look at our revenue management, and with the idea that we'll continue to improve from here.

But it is with the understanding that -- and we've been very clear about this -- the financial performance out of Dallas has been superb from day one.

So the improvement may not be as sharp in those markets as it will be in some others, but nonetheless, I absolutely would expect that we'll continue to see improvement from that capacity.

Okay.

That's helpful.

Just maybe a quick one in terms of -- a couple weeks from now we find out about the TA.

If it is voted down, how does the CASM X guide change for the fourth quarter?

We will -- if there is any change to our guidance, we'll just update you, as appropriate, later this quarter.

Okay.

All right.

And the first -- I'm just trying to help you a little bit here.

You don't get a full-quarter change because -- and think about the fourth quarter -- because the effective pay rate change date is November 1, Mike, if I remember right?

So it's not the -- you wouldn't have a full-quarter effect of the pay increase in the fourth quarter.

Okay, and in terms of how the contract is implemented, are there things that, from a crew planning standpoint, et cetera, that hit you costwise up front that you manage over time?

Or is it once the contract goes in, that's the right run rate on the pilot side?

Again, I think we'll need to -- when that is all certain, one way or the other, I think we'll need to go into the effects of the contract.

Okay.

But at least for the time being, you've got good guidance from Southwest on the fourth-quarter cost outlook.

Okay.

We've booked the accrual for the bonus, and with that, we are assuming in our guidance that the agreement is ratified.

Right.

Okay.

I appreciate that.

We'll take our next question from Michael Linenberg with Deutsche Bank.

Hey, everyone -- just two quick ones here.

Tammy, next year's growth, the 5% to 6% ASMs, do you have a -- what the sense that is on departures?

I think you gave us departure growth for the fourth quarter.

And then, with the new Houston International terminal, and it looks like you've been adding international flights from other markets, how should we think about what part of that is international -- split between international and domestic?

For 2016?

Yes, 2016.

Most of that's going -- it's going to be weighted, obviously, toward domestic.

So a small, probably call it 1 point or so would be international, and the rest of that would be domestic.

And then just the departure growth rate?

Our seats are -- we're expecting those to be up 3 -- somewhere 3.5%, call it 3.5%, 3.6%.

And that is going to, of course, Dallas, LaGuardia and Reagan National.

And that's, call it, probably half of that, and then the remainder would be other just regional additions that we've made here this year.

Okay, great.

And then just second question: I caught it somewhere in the press.

I think it was reported that you paid $120 million to get access to the Love Field gates.

I was just wondering maybe if you could talk about how you got to that fair value, and whether or not -- do you have exclusivity of those gates or will you have to accommodate Delta?

What's the story there?

Well, I'll answer the question, Mike.

I just want to recognize that we're under a gag order from the federal judge on this case.

So I'm going to be very careful not to not comply with his order.

Right.

The value was pretty straightforward.

We simply looked at equivalent values for slot-controlled airports, as slots are readily traded.

And I would argue to you that there is no more effectively slot-controlled airport in the United States than Dallas Love Field.

So it was pretty straightforward on how we arrived at that value.

And obviously, you heard our results from Love Field.

With respect to the exclusivity, this sublease operates like any other airport lease where, yes, we do have preferential rights to the gates, and then are required to make reasonable accommodation, which simply means, if you have room available, then you can't prohibit someone from using the gate.

And that's the way it works.

That's the way it works at Love Field.

That's the way it works everywhere.

Obviously, there is no room at Love Field for anybody other than Southwest on our gates, by the way we are operating.

Perfect.

Thanks.

Appreciate it, Gary.

Yes, sir.

Hey, Mike, just one clarification: The numbers I gave you were for carryover.

And so I wasn't clear if your question was carryover or in total.

But it's not going to move a lot.

It's probably somewhere in that 4% -- the seats are probably somewhere in the 4% growth range.

Very helpful.

Thanks, Tammy.

We'll take our next question from Hunter Keay with Wolfe Research.

Hi.

Thank you very much.

We all think of Dallas as being Dallas, obviously; it is very competitive.

In reality, there's two different airports there; and at times, they behave like different markets.

So I would love to hear what you guys have discovered as the Wright Amendment [roots is schooled] up about the competitive dynamic in Dallas, in terms of when Love Field and DFW fully compete with each other, and maybe when they don't.

As in, maybe, does the competitiveness become a little bit less important during trough period travel times?

And are there times where maybe these two airports are maybe distinct, more distinct to one another than maybe a lot of people realize at a high level?

Anything you can share of your experience, I would appreciate it.

Thank you.

I would be happy to.

I would say, more than any other dual or multiple airport market that I can think of, they operate as one airport.

And they have -- I've been here for 30 years, and they always have.

So the prices are matched.

They are matched, obviously, when it's Southwest Airlines leading in the market.

It's been rare historically to have any low-fare offering at DFW because of the dominance at that airport.

So really, Southwest -- it was left to Southwest in this market to provide that low-fare competition.

That changed materially in 2006 when President Bush signed the Wright Amendment compromise because we could then begin offering itineraries beyond the Wright Amendment area, and you saw prices come down significantly.

Now we're able, of course, after 2014, to fly those markets non-stop, and so there are more seats available at lower fares.

You've seen the increase in traffic, not just at Love, but by virtue of that increased competition, over at DFW.

What we've typically seen over a 30-year period is, as we've grown with a focus on local traffic, the hub-and-spoke carriers, and especially in DFW, began to deemphasize that, and shift their focus to flow traffic, which is why, in the old days, you would see one-third of the flights coming from Southwest, one-third from, in a city pair, one-third from Delta, one-third from American, and Southwest would have two-thirds of the traffic on that segment.

Dallas to Austin was my all-time favorite example.

And that phenomenon continued more and more and more because they simply could not compete effectively with their costs on those, especially those short-haul segments.

So they absolutely compete.

I talk to customers here in the DFW area all the time who tell me that they choose between DFW and Southwest for various reasons, or rather Love Field, for various reasons.

And I'm in the same situation; I can drive to DFW just as fast as I can drive to Love Field, and obviously I drive to Love Field.

But they are very close together, and it is much more of a single market than Houston, as an example, or the Washington DC area.

Maybe it's more akin to the Bay Area, where Oakland and SFO, I think, are pretty interchangeable.

But it operates as one market.

Okay.

That's interesting.

And then as it relates to fuel hedging, Tammy, can you talk about some of the risk parameters that you guys put in place when you think about taking out a hedge position?

And how much risk you're willing to absorb in terms of, not just premium expense, but in terms of downside and upside and collateral being posted?

What are the risk parameters you use when putting on hedges?

And when you make unfortunate hedging choices, is there a level of accountability that exists within your department if the wrong choice is made?

Thanks.

Yes, I would be happy to walk you through that, Hunter.

As you are aware, fuel represents one of our largest expenses, so always either our first or our second, and it's really pretty straightforward.

Our fuel hedging program is just designed to provide insurance when prices are rising.

Obviously, when prices are low, that's not as great of a risk, and I think this quarter is evidence of that, where we're producing very nice earnings.

So we really look at our fuel hedging to help us mitigate the impact of the volatile swings that we see in fuel prices, and just provide us at least a little more certainty with respect to what kind of fuel spikes we might have as we're planning for the future.

So in terms of what do we think about, I think it's all the things that you would expect us to.

We certainly do consider our balance sheet in determining how much risk we're able to absorb, either on the high side or the low side, with respect to risks that we might be willing to accept with on the floor side.

But that's simply what we do.

We really do a lot of scenario planning to make sure that we're comfortable with the possible prices, the possible fluctuations in fuel as we work through our plans.

So, hopefully that gives you a little bit of insight.

We're looking up and down the curve to make sure that we're comfortable when prices are high, as well as when prices are low.

Thank you.

And we'll take our next question from Joseph DeNardi with Stifel.

Thank you very much.

Gary, I think in that Fortune interview, you also talked about potentially getting to a 90% load factor within five years.

So I'm wondering if that's how you're managing the Airline, whether Southwest can handle that operationally, and whether you have the appropriate ancillary revenue stream to have that strategy make sense?

To be honest with you, I don't remember saying that.

You might be right.

Mike Van De Ven is sitting next to me; he's about to punch me for saying that.

But I don't know.

Honestly, I don't know if 90% is a realistic number or not.

I really don't know the context of the statement.

But today -- I'll answer it today, rather than trying to reconcile whatever is in that article.

Last year, Mike, we were at 83% annual load factor?

That is 15 points higher than what we produced 15 years ago in the year 2000.

And a lot of that increase -- of course, it's all been necessary.

We've had economic imperatives to adjust our schedule to have fewer empty seats, but we're also carrying more connecting passengers.

Still very heavily weighted towards non-stop passengers, but I think that that's all important background to think about your question.

We lag the industry.

I think a lot of our employees believe that we're the highest load factor, but actually we lag in the industry because we don't hub and spoke, and we don't schedule so intentionally for connecting customers.

We've had a nod more that way in recent years, but not nearly as much as the rest of the industry.

So it seems to me, unless we continue to evolve more towards trying to fill airplanes up with connections, we're going to be somewhere here in the low-80%s.

We're running a bit ahead this year, of a year ago.

We just had a record load factor for the third quarter, which was at 85%.

That was up 1 point versus a year ago.

It feels like we'll probably beat last year's 83%-ish 2014 load factor, Mike, that we had?

So I think we can kind of inch things along from here.

I'm happy at these levels, as long as the rest of our economics continue to be successful.

So, one of the things that we've tried to do over the last 5 to 10 years is have more customers per departure, so we would be relying less on having to raise our fares.

That's a great way to increase revenues and still keep our fares low.

And obviously, we're getting closer to the point where that may not be as achievable.

I think we have opportunities to manage our revenues better with revenue management techniques.

That's one of the things that will come with our new reservation system, and by adding value in areas like our frequent flyer program.

So, very pleased with the improvement that we've seen with our credit card compensation there.

So, we'll continue to look for opportunities to grow our unit revenues.

And I think, for the most part, that will need to come from optimizing our route network, and less so in terms of trying to fill more empty seats.

Okay.

That's helpful.

And then, I think at the investor day, you also said that, once you get beyond 2015, the growth out of Love, that you see yourselves as a low single-digit type grower domestically.

Is that still the case, or has that changed at all?

I'm sorry.

I was thinking about your question.

Is the question about our domestic growth opportunities to grow?

Yes.

Beyond Love Field?

Yes.

Well, no, I think we have a large opportunity to grow.

It depends upon a number of things.

It depends on fuel prices, fares, the economy, all things that you know.

It depends on our competition.

But as we see things today, there are more than ample opportunities to grow domestically.

And as I've said many, many times, we'll want to grow in a sensible way, and we'll want to make sure that we maintain a strong balance sheet, we maintain hitting our profit targets, our return targets.

But it is important to grow.

It is important to keep the customers that we have.

We'll need to continue to add service to meet their needs, as long as the traffic is growing.

So, not growing is obviously not -- is not a good alternative.

But if the domestic economy continues to grow, and especially if the short-haul traffic continues to rebuild as what -- some of the early signs we've seen here in 2015 -- then we'll have ample opportunities to grow.

I'm reluctant to put a number on it.

Whatever I say, it really doesn't matter; we're going to grow at the rate that is justified by our financial parameters, as well as the demand in the marketplace.

And if we are lucky to have growth opportunities like we are experiencing right now out of Dallas, out of Washington, out of Houston International, then that will be fantastic.

And we'll grow and we'll manage it, and we'll continue hopefully to have record earnings.

That would be our goal.

Okay.

And then just a quick one: Tammy, can you provide what the no-show fee revenue was in the quarter?

Sure.

I would be happy to pull that for you.

It was $16 million for third quarter.

Thank you very much.

Ladies and gentlemen, we have time for one more question.

We'll take our last question from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore.

Thanks for the time.

Only two for me; I'm not going to ask you six or seven.

So, on the other revenue line, it looks like it increased nicely, even excluding the new credit card agreement.

Can you just talk about what is driving that, and trends you expect going forward?

Yes.

As I mentioned as we opened the call, we have had nice growth in our ancillary revenue.

Obviously, the Chase agreement is benefiting significantly in the other revenue line.

So that's going to be the large -- that's going to be the biggest piece of that, Duane.

And we also had freight -- freight and others are also performing well.

So we were actually quite pleased because our ancillaries offset.

As you know, we had the AirTran [bag fees] coming off, so we were pleased that that offset our revenue.

But it's primarily the Chase agreement.

And then in addition, we had a nice showing with EarlyBird and upgraded boarding.

Those were also contributors to our other revenue growth, and I think that those are really the headlines.

Thank you.

And then just -- (multiple speakers).

One other note is just charters.

We also saw very strong growth during the third quarter as well.

I think our charters were up in the 20% to 30% range.

Duane, again, just -- I'm saying the same thing Tammy is, but the Chase deal, if I do my arithmetic here right, accounts for all but about $25 million of the increase.

So there's a $40 million adjustment out of passenger into other, in addition to the $130 million that we've been talking about that it added during the quarter.

So there's actually $170 million.

In other.

In other.

Got it.

I think the trick was to get beyond AirTran, because it was shrinking for a while, and now it looks like it's growing even ex this deal.

That's true.

On the domestic res migration, sounds like you're messaging a little bit on the cost side the things that we can look forward to on the revenue side, levers that you haven't pulled yet.

Can you give any update there?

Is it 2017?

Is it 2018?

When can we start to get excited about the new levers that you haven't pulled yet?

Thanks for taking the questions.

Well, I'm thinking to myself about the new levers that you must be referring to.

In terms of the levers that we have been talking about, I think it's primarily our new reservation system, with some enhanced revenue management capability.

So I'll let Tammy talk about that.

But beyond that, our immediate focus -- and she's already made this point.

You get the full-year benefit of the new credit card deal, which is something we're excited about for next year.

And then we're working really hard to mature our route network.

It's gone through a lot of change over the last couple years.

We're absolutely expecting that we're going to drive more performance from that, especially with the maturing of the developing markets.

But, Tammy, anything else you want to add there?

No, I really don't have much to add to that.

The first phase of that, I agree, would be the revenue management opportunities and just continuing to optimize the network.

And then, as we get past turning on our new reservation system, we'll certainly provide more insight at that time.

So, when would you expect it to turn on?

Is that a 2016 event?

We have not given the exact date yet, but what we have said is that we will be on our current reservation through the end of 2016, and we have transition assistance beyond that.

So we're getting closer, so just stay tuned, and we'll be back in probably not too much longer with more details on the timeline.

But we're just not ready to lay out all of that out for you today.

Thanks for taking the questions.

Thank you.

And that concludes the analyst portion of today's call.

Thank you for joining.

Ladies and gentlemen, we'll now begin our media portion of today's call.

I would like to first introduce Ms. Linda Rutherford, Vice President of Communications and Outreach.

Good day, everyone.

We'll just jump straight to the questions.

So, Tom, if you could instruct them on how to queue up, we'll get started.

(Operator Instructions)

We'll take our first question from Michael Lindenberger with Dallas Morning News.

Thank you very much for the time.

I'm wanting to ask -- you've saved a lot of money on fuel, and you've made a lot of efforts to try to keep your prices low by finding other revenue, I guess, by volume.

Is there any calculation that you ought to invest some of these savings rather than in share buybacks, but in more aggressive pricing to drive up your volume and to give the flying public the benefit that you guys have been sharing with your shareholders currently?

Well, first of all, we want to be America's low-fare leader, and I think that we are.

We're the only, I think the only -- I was going to say the only major carrier -- we're the only carrier that doesn't nickel and dime with bag fees, change fees.

So, we offer a tremendous value.

And we are meeting our financial goals with respect to our cash and our balance sheet, and we're trying to serve all of our constituents -- our people, our customers, our shareholders.

So we're trying to take care of each one of those.

Nobody, a year ago, saw a 50% decline in fuel prices looming.

Nobody saw that.

And so logic would tell you that, as we sit here today, it is going to be very difficult for any of us -- you, me, Tammy, anybody -- to predict what fuel prices will be a year from now.

What I can tell you from experience is it is very difficult to increase fares rapidly.

Customers hate that, and it tends to chase away demand very rapidly.

Every one of our legacy competitors that we compete against has been bankrupt over the past decade, and bankrupted primarily because of surging fuel prices.

So, I think, speaking for Southwest, I am very reluctant to take our customers through a roller-coaster ride of fares.

And if we're all lucky, and energy prices remain low for an extended period of time, I can assure you that we'll continue to offer low fares, and continue to add flights and grow Southwest Airlines.

So that's where the money is going.

It's going back to invest in the infrastructure for Southwest.

We're building new airports.

We're building new technology for commercial purposes, for operational purposes, and we're buying more airplanes.

We're replacing our older airplanes, and we're also adding growth so that we can expand into exciting places like we did last week by launching new international flights out of Houston.

Thank you.

And if I could just ask one quick follow-up, you mentioned legacy airlines.

Obviously, you guys have stayed out of the fight between them and the Gulf carriers.

But it does implicate this sort of -- you're all in the same competitive mix, not obviously as much on the international carriers.

But I'm just wondering if you think there's any weakness in the legacy carriers' position of arguing against the Gulf carriers' huge gains in the US market, based in large part by lower fares and better service?

Well, I would certainly acknowledge that we're all in the same industry, but I would also be quick to add that we often take a differing view.

With particular -- with respect to the particular issue that you mentioned, it is not our priority.

We haven't spent any time on it and, therefore, we just have not taken a position.

Thank you very much.

(Operator Instructions)

We'll go next to Andrea Ahles with the Star-Telegram.

Hi, Gary.

I was wondering if you -- I heard you talk on the call about the Love Field case with Delta that's in front of a federal judge.

Delta was asked last week if they plan to appeal the ruling, if it goes against them.

And I wanted to ask you the same question.

Will you appeal -- will Southwest appeal the judge's ruling if it goes against Southwest?

Well, really, I want to honor the judge's order here and comply, first of all.

We're looking forward to the decision, and would expect that hopefully soon, and I think we'll respond accordingly at that time.

You're not willing to come out like Delta did and say that, yes, we definitely plan to appeal this to the circuit court if the judge rules against us?

I'm not going to not comply with the judge's order to not comment on this case.

All right.

Thank you.

And we'll take our next question from David Koenig with the Associated Press.

Hi, folks.

Two questions, because I think the first one's probably a quick answer.

But can you say what your early load factors are on those international flights out of Houston?

And also, on the cost side, that labor cost line really stands out.

And even if that includes the pilots' ratification bonus, even if it does, you're still up 14.4%.

And I'm wondering if that is going to be a trend that investors should expect to see going forward.

Well, David, on the latter, that's really profit sharing that's driving that.

So, I would welcome that kind of increase.

Okay.

But, yes, that's our variable pay component.

When the Company does well, our employees do even better.

I talked long enough, I forgot your first easy question.

Houston Hobby load factors on the international?

Well, I can report this: We've got -- by far, the majority of our destinations are leisure destinations.

Those load factors are consistently very high.

These are brand-new markets.

I'm expecting us to have periods of time, though, when we have pretty light loads.

The only markets that we've typically seen softer loads than we would like would be the more business markets, which is primarily Mexico City.

And some of the flight times there aren't optimal yet with the slot controls that they have in place.

But the -- I was there on Thursday, and virtually every flight going out that day was full.

So I think the early returns are pretty much what we would have expected, and I think we'll do very well in that market.

The fares have been very high.

We're going to come in with famous low fares, and we'd very much expect to have the Southwest effect to kick in.

All right.

Thanks.

And we have time for one more question.

We'll take our last question from Jeffrey Dastin with Reuters.

(Operator Instructions)

Hello?

Is this better?

We can hear you now.

Okay, great, great.

I was trying to speak for a couple moments there.

Well, thank you for taking the call.

Has Southwest finished its response to the Justice Department's civil investigative demand?

And can it give any other update on where that process stands now?

I think the only thing that I can appropriately comment on is that we're fully complying with the civil investigative demand.

Certainly, we worked hard, and turned over a lot of information.

But as to exactly where that stands, I can't really comment any further.

Thank you very much.

At this time, I would like to turn the call back to Ms. Rutherford for any closing remarks.

Thank you all very much.

Of course, if there's any follow-up questions, don't hesitate to call us.

Or you can always reach out at SWAmedia.com, and we'll take care of you.

Thanks, and have a great day.

And this concludes today's call.

Thank you for joining.