Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q3 2024 Louisiana-Pacific Corporation earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加路易斯安那太平洋公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I'd now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Aaron Howald, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給今天的第一位發言人，投資者關係副總裁 Aaron Howald。請繼續。

Thank you, Operator. And good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，接線生。大家早安。

Thank you for joining us to discuss LP's results for the third quarter of 2024, as well as our updated outlook for the fourth quarter and full year. Hosting the call with me this morning are Brad Southern, LP's Chief Executive Officer; and Alan Haughie, LP's Chief Financial Officer.

感謝您與我們一起討論 LP 2024 年第三季的業績，以及我們對第四季和全年的最新展望。今天早上與我一起主持電話會議的是 LP 執行長 Brad Southern；和 LP 財務長 Alan Haughie。

After prepared remarks, we will take one round of questions. During this morning's call, we will refer to a presentation that has been posted to LPs IR web page, which is investor.lpcorp.com. Our 8-K filing, earnings press release and other materials are also available there.

準備好發言後，我們將接受一輪問題。在今天早上的電話會議中，我們將參考已發佈到有限合夥人投資者關係網頁（investor.lpcorp.com）上的簡報。我們的 8-K 文件、收益新聞稿和其他資料也可以在那裡找到。

As always, I will caution you that today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial metrics as described on slides 2 and 3 of the earnings presentation. The appendix of the presentation also contains reconciliations that are further supplemented by this morning's 8-K filing. Rather than reading those statements, I will incorporate them by reference.

像往常一樣，我會提醒您，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則財務指標，如收益簡報 2 和 3 所述。簡報的附錄還包含調節結果，今天早上的 8-K 歸檔進一步補充了調節結果。我不會閱讀這些陳述，而是透過引用將它們納入其中。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Brad.

這樣，我會將電話轉給布拉德。

Thanks, Aaron, and thank you all again for joining us today.

謝謝亞倫，再次感謝大家今天加入我們。

LP's teams continue to execute our strategy effectively in the third quarter. As a result, Siding net sales grew by 22%, well above the underlying markets we serve. Siding set new records for sales and EBITDA, help our ongoing improvements in ExpertFinish margins. Our OSB business operated safely and efficiently with strong price realization to make the most of the sequentially softer price environment.

LP 團隊在第三季繼續有效執行我們的策略。結果，Siding 淨銷售額成長了 22%，遠高於我們服務的基礎市場。壁板創下了銷售和 EBITDA 的新記錄，幫助我們持續提高 ExpertFinish 利潤率。我們的定向刨花板業務安全高效地運營，價格實現強勁，充分利用了持續疲軟的價格環境。

Page 5 of the presentation shows LPs high-level financial results for the quarter. LP generated $722 million in net sales with 22% side and growth almost completely offsetting the $88 million impact of lower commodity OSB prices. Siding's EBITDA of $123 million was a record

簡報的第 5 頁顯示了有限合夥人本季的高階財務表現。LP 的淨銷售額為 7.22 億美元，成長了 22%，成長幾乎完全抵消了商品 OSB 價格下跌帶來的 8,800 萬美元的影響。Siding 的 EBITDA 達到創紀錄的 1.23 億美元

ExpertFinish saw another record quarter for both revenue and margin and with margin expansion driven by higher volumes and efficiency improvements that are dedicated prefinishing facilities. Under $53 million of EBITDA translated cleanly into $184 million of operating cash flow. We invested this cash and our future growth with $44 million in capital expenditures in the quarter before returning $91 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, leaving LP with nearly $900 billion of liquidity in a very strong balance sheet.

ExpertFinish 的季度收入和利潤率再次創下歷史新高，而專用預塗飾設施產量的增加和效率的提高推動了利潤率的增長。不到 5,300 萬美元的 EBITDA 乾淨地轉化為 1.84 億美元的營運現金流。我們在本季將這些現金和未來成長投入了4,400 萬美元的資本支出，然後透過股息和股票回購向股東返還9,100 萬美元，使LP 在非常強大的資產負債表中擁有近9,000 億美元的流動性。

Let me turn briefly to the market and what we are seeing in the channel. The new home construction market is slowing somewhat with the combined effects of the risks that rebound in mortgage rates and the approach of colder weather. Housing starts have leveled at about $1.4 million in recent months, which is also the current consensus for next year, but the single-family mix remains higher than average. In the new construction market, LP is over indexed to single-family starts. So it was encouraging to see the run rate for single-family starts back above 1 million in the September census report.

讓我簡單談談市場以及我們在通路中看到的情況。在抵押貸款利率反彈風險和天氣轉冷的綜合影響下，新房建設市場正在放緩。近幾個月來，新屋開工率約為 140 萬美元，這也是目前對明年的共識，但單戶住宅的結構仍高於平均水平。在新建市場中，LP 過度依賴單戶住宅的開工。因此，在 9 月的人口普查報告中看到單戶住宅的開工率重新回到 100 萬以上，令人鼓舞。

Repair remodeling spend is still a few percentage points lower than last year, but the outlook for R&R has improved. The recently published a leading indicator of remodeling activity published by the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies suggest that R&R spending has bottomed and projects to return to positive year-over-year growth in 2025. Given that about a third of LP, SmartSide Siding goes for our applications. This is a positive development. We believe inventories in the channel within normal seasonal ranges post the inventory is somewhat leaner, which might be contributing to recent strength in commodity prices.

維修改造支出仍比去年低幾個百分點，但 R&R 的前景有所改善。哈佛住房研究聯合中心最近發布的一項改造活動領先指標表明，R&R 支出已觸底，預計將在 2025 年恢復同比正增長。鑑於大約三分之一的 LP，SmartSide Siding 適用於我們的應用。這是一個積極的發展。我們認為，通路庫存在正常季節性範圍內，庫存減少，這可能是近期大宗商品價格走強的原因之一。

Siding inventory assume or an absolute volume of this time last year, but lower in days of sales that consistent with normal seasonal patterns. We have announced a price increase for next year in Siding and that will be a factor as we manage your in shipments to position our sales and channel for a strong start of 2025.

壁板庫存假定為去年同期的絕對數量，但銷售天數較低，與正常的季節性模式一致。我們宣布明年 Siding 的價格上漲，這將成為我們管理您的出貨量以定位我們的銷售和通路以在 2025 年取得強勁開局的一個因素。

Looking forward, interest rates and affordability remain the dominant macroeconomic factors to watch, but housing undersupply and the aging housing stock must ultimately to be resolved. We believe that LP's uniquely well positioned to address these needs. And as a result, we are confident that we will continue to grow Siding and Structural Solutions in 2025 and beyond.

展望未來，利率和承受能力仍然是值得關注的主要宏觀經濟因素，但住房供應不足和房屋存量老化問題最終必須解決。我們相信 LP 具有獨特的優勢來滿足這些需求。因此，我們有信心在 2025 年及以後繼續發展壁板和結構解決方案。

Our results demonstrate that LP strategy is working and reinforce our confidence to invest in future growth, which Alan will speak to in a moment. Before I turn call over to [hail], I'll highlight two additional accomplishments for the quarter.

我們的結果表明，有限合夥人策略正在發揮作用，並增強了我們投資未來成長的信心，艾倫稍後將談到這一點。在我將電話轉交[冰雹]之前，我將強調本季的另外兩項成就。

First, LP published environmental product declaration for the entire SmartSide trim and Siding product portfolio. BCP days validated by AST Human International confirmed that SmartSide Expert Federation Builder Series products, our carbon negative, meaning they store more carbon than is emitted throughout their lifecycle.

首先，LP 發布了整個 SmartSide 裝飾和壁板產品組合的環保產品聲明。AST Human International 驗證的 BCP 天證實，SmartSide Expert Federation Builder 系列產品是我們的碳負值產品，這意味著它們儲存的碳多於其整個生命週期中排放的碳。

This is made possible by our sustainable use of renewable fiber resources as well as our innovative and efficient manufacturing processes. And I want to thank the LP teams who support this, especially forestry operations and our sustainability team.

這得益於我們對再生纖維資源的可持續利用以及我們創新且高效的製造流程。我要感謝支持這一點的 LP 團隊，特別是林業營運和我們的永續發展團隊。

Last and most importantly, LP was notified in August that we have had earned a 2023 Safest Company Award from APA Engineered Wood Association. This is the 12th time in the 16-year history of the award program that LP has won the Safest Company designation. Five of our mills, also more than individual site to recognitions. I want to thank and congratulate every LP team member for this recognition and challenge us all to keep building upon LPs high performance safety culture. Safety is a core value for all of us at LP. Of all, we are pleased with the honor. We won't rest on all the [holes].

最後也是最重要的是，LP 在 8 月收到通知，我們已獲得 APA 工程木材協會頒發的 2023 年最安全公司獎。這是 LP 在該獎項 16 年歷史上第 12 次榮獲「最安全公司」稱號。我們的五個工廠，也比個別工廠獲得了表揚。我要感謝並祝賀每位 LP 團隊成員獲得這項認可，並向我們所有人提出挑戰，繼續建立 LP 的高性能安全文化。安全是 LP 所有人的核心價值。總之，我們對這項榮譽感到高興。我們不會滿足於所有[洞]。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Alan for more detail on our results and guidance before we take a round of questions.

接下來，在我們回答一輪問題之前，我會將電話轉給艾倫，以獲取有關我們結果和指導的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Brad.

謝謝，布拉德。

As usual, slides 7 and 8 of the presentation shows third-quarter year-on-year variances in net sales and EBITDA for the Siding and OSB businesses. Both are fairly straightforward with the exception of some timing wrinkles in Siding that I'll spend a bit more time on before I move on to our updated guidance for the full year.

與往常一樣，簡報的幻燈片 7 和 8 顯示了壁板和 OSB 業務第三季淨銷售額和 EBITDA 的同比差異。兩者都相當簡單，除了側板中的一些時間問題之外，在我繼續討論全年更新的指導之前，我將花更多時間來討論這些問題。

Turning to slide 7. Siding net sales increased year-over-year by $75 million or 22% for revenue of $420 million on 460 million square feet of volume, both sequentially above second quarter levels. This year-over-year growth is the result of 6% higher average selling prices and 15% volume growth.

轉到投影片 7。壁板淨銷售額年增 7,500 萬美元，增幅為 22%，營收為 4.2 億美元，面積為 4.6 億平方英尺，均高於第二季水準。這一同比增長是平均售價上漲 6% 和銷量增長 15% 的結果。

Roughly half of the 6% price improvement was the result of annual list price increases with the other half due to favorable mix. ExpertFinish comprise 9% of volume in the quarter contributing significantly to this positive price mix.

6% 的價格上漲大約一半是年度標價上漲的結果，另一半是有利的組合所致。ExpertFinish 佔本季銷量的 9%，對這種積極的價格組合做出了重大貢獻。

The incremental volume generated EBITDA of 44% contribution margin, that is $24 million of EBITDA from volume divided by $54 million of revenue from increased volume. When we include price, the contribution to EBITDA on incremental revenue was 61%. You can find that by adding $22 million of price to both the numerator and denominator in the previous calculation. And this healthy conversion is exactly what we should expect from the business as it continues to grow into recently added primed capacity at the (inaudible) and ExpertFinish capacity at Bath.

增量產生的 EBITDA 貢獻率為 44%，即 2,400 萬美元的 EBITDA 除以 5,400 萬美元的增量收入。如果算上價格，增量收入對 EBITDA 的貢獻為 61%。您可以透過將 2200 萬美元的價格添加到先前計算中的分子和分母中來發現這一點。這種健康的轉變正是我們對業務的期望，因為它繼續增長到最近增加的巴斯（聽不清楚）和 ExpertFinish 產能。

Investments in sales and marketing, mostly boots on the ground with the sales team totaled $6 million more than prior year on a helping LP's Siding business continues to grow despite flat housing and lower year over year repair and remodel expenditures and raw material and freight costs were roughly in line with last year.

銷售和行銷方面的投資（大部分是實地啟動）與銷售團隊的投資總額比上年增加了600 萬美元，以幫助LP 的壁板業務繼續增長，儘管公寓住房和同比維修和改造支出以及原材料和運輸成本較低與去年基本一致。

In the other column, the far right. The first and simplest item is a $5 million EBITDA benefit from the non-recurrence of last year's press rebuild at Dawson Creek. The remaining $8 million benefit is the net of a handful of small puts and takes, but one item does bear mentioning as it will impact the fourth quarter, a maintenance project in our Houlton Mill that was planned for September was pushed into October because of delays in equipment delivery caused by the East Coast post-strike. The project is currently underway, and it will require about four weeks of downtime.

在另一列中，最右邊。第一個也是最簡單的項目是去年 Dawson Creek 印刷機重建不再重複帶來的 500 萬美元 EBITDA 收益。剩下的800 萬美元收益是扣除少量小額投入和產出後的淨額，但有一個項目確實值得一提，因為它將影響第四季度，即計劃於9 月進行的霍爾頓工廠維護項目，由於延誤而推遲到10 月。該項目目前正在進行中，需要大約四個星期的停機時間。

For total cost and production impact in the second half of the year is unchanged for the delay pulled production forward into the third quarter and pushed costs into the fourth. The delayed cost and inventory absorption effective extra production boosted third-quarter EBITDA by a bit over $5 million and added probably up points to the EBITDA margin.

對於下半年的總成本和生產影響沒有變化，因為延遲將生產提前至第三季度，並將成本推至第四季度。延遲的成本和庫存吸收有效地增加了生產，使第三季的 EBITDA 增加了略多於 500 萬美元，並可能增加了 EBITDA 利潤率。

Now, I mention this only because all else equal, one could reasonably assume that this pull forward might create a corresponding reduction in our fourth quarter EBITDA outlook. Happily, this is not the case as I will detail in a moment when I get to our updated guidance.

現在，我提到這一點只是因為在其他條件相同的情況下，人們可以合理地假設這種提前可能會導致我們第四季度 EBITDA 前景的相應減少。令人高興的是，情況並非如此，稍後我將在獲得更新的指南時詳細介紹。

On Slide 8. I'm sure you'll all be relieved to know the OSB waterfall is far simpler, so I won't elaborate it. Commodity prices were lower, reducing [Neovia] sales and EBITDA by $88 million. Variance system higher volumes, incremental margin from Structural Solutions, raw material and labor inflation will all immaterial by comparison.

在投影片 8 上。我相信當知道 OSB 瀑布要簡單得多時，你們都會鬆一口氣，所以我不會詳細說明。商品價格下跌，[Neovia] 銷售額和 EBITDA 減少了 8,800 萬美元。相較之下，差異系統更高的產量、結構解決方案的增加利潤、原料和勞動力通膨都無關緊要。

For the story this chart doesn't tell very well is that the combined impacts of OEE cost control and strong price realization allowed the OSB business to outperform the small increase in our algorithmic guidance, implied by modestly higher random lengths prices late in the quarter.

這張圖表並沒有很好地說明這一點，OEE 成本控制和強勁的價格實現的綜合影響使OSB 業務的表現超過了我們演算法指導的小幅增長，這由本季度末隨機長度價格適度較高所暗示。

Slide 9 shows a similarly straightforward quarter of cash flow. This $184 million of operating cash flow includes $44 million of working capital inflows, mostly from accounts receivable. And $73 million of share repurchases of shares outstanding to almost exactly $70 million as of this November 1.

投影片 9 顯示了同樣簡單的季度現金流。這 1.84 億美元的營運現金流包括 4,400 萬美元的營運資本流入，其中大部分來自應收帳款。截至今年 11 月 1 日，已發行股票回購額為 7,300 萬美元，幾乎達到 7,000 萬美元。

We also made a locally funded $17 million investment in a nonconsolidated joint venture in South America. This venture already well established specializes in off-site construction of modular social housing and this should help stimulate and sustained demand for LPs products address chronic undersupply of housing in the region and support the ongoing shift in South American building practices from bricks and cement to more sustainable and seismically robust engineered wood.

我們也向南美洲的一家非合併合資企業投資了 1700 萬美元的本地資金。該合資企業已經成熟，專門從事模組化社會住房的異地建設，這將有助於刺激和維持對LP 產品的需求，解決該地區長期住房供應不足的問題，並支持南美建築實踐從磚塊和水泥轉向更多建築的轉變。

So slide 10 shows our updated guidance. Ongoing growth and margin expansion in Siding are expected to more than offset the timing issue I mentioned earlier. So we now expect fourth-quarter Siding revenue growth of between 9% and 10% for sales of about $365 million and this would bring full year sales growth to about 17% and revenue to about $1.55 billion. Siding's fourth-quarter EBITDA should be between $70 million to $80 million. This would deliver full year EBITDA in the $390 million to $400 million range for a margin of about 25%, which is our long-term target. In other words, continued strength in the Siding order file has allowed us to increase the full year growth and margin expectations for Siding by about 1.8 compared to last quarter's full-year guidance.

因此幻燈片 10 顯示了我們更新的指南。Siding 的持續成長和利潤率擴張預計將足以抵消我之前提到的時機問題。因此，我們現在預計第四季度 Siding 的營收將成長在 9% 到 10% 之間，銷售額約為 3.65 億美元，這將使全年銷售成長約 17%，營收約 15.5 億美元。Siding第四季的EBITDA應該在7000萬至8000萬美元之間。這將使全年 EBITDA 在 3.9 億至 4 億美元範圍內，利潤率約為 25%，這是我們的長期目標。換句話說，Siding 訂單文件的持續強勁使我們能夠將 Siding 的全年增長和利潤率預期比上季度的全年指引提高約 1.8。

In OSB, Random Length's prices have climbed a bit in the fourth quarter, but we expect the typical seasonal downtime to impact volumes and incorporating these factors and using our normal approach for OSB. Assuming prices stay flat at current levels, we would expect OSB EBITDA in the fourth quarter in the $15million to $25 million range.

在 OSB 中，Random Length 的價格在第四季度略有攀升，但我們預計典型的季節性停機會會影響銷量，並結合這些因素並使用我們對 OSB 的正常方法。假設價格保持在當前水準不變，我們預計第四季度 OSB EBITDA 在 1500 萬至 2500 萬美元範圍內。

Adding this all up and as usual and netting off South America's EBITDA with unallocated corporate costs, we now believe that LP's full year 2024 EBITDA will be between $655 million to $million, an increase of about $65 million compared to the midpoint of our guidance from August and $13 million of this is coming from signing.

將所有這些加起來，像往常一樣，扣除南美洲的EBITDA 與未分配的企業成本，我們現在認為LP 2024 年全年EBITDA 將在6.55 億美元至100 萬美元之間，比我們指導的中位數增加了約6500 萬美元。

CapEx for the year should come in around $200 million. And as Brad said, growth and share gains gives us continued confidence to invest in new Siding capacity. As a result, while we won't get offer revenue or EBITDA guidance for 2025, we do expect CapEx for the next two years to be meaningfully higher than this year's as we launch the next Siding expansion project.

今年的資本支出應約為 2 億美元。正如布拉德所說，成長和份額成長讓我們有信心投資新的側線產能。因此，雖然我們無法獲得 2025 年的報價收入或 EBITDA 指導，但隨著我們啟動下一個 Siding 擴建項目，我們預計未來兩年的資本支出將顯著高於今年。

We'll share more specifics on this project in coming quarters. For now, though, I can say that we expect total CapEx investments next year to be between $350 million and $375 million, including $100 million to $125 million dedicated to the next Siding mill, most of which should land in the third and fourth quarters.

我們將在未來幾季分享有關該項目的更多細節。不過，就目前而言，我可以說，我們預計明年的資本支出總額將在3.5 億至3.75 億美元之間，其中包括1 億至1.25 億美元專門用於下一個側板工廠，其中大部分應在第三和第四季投入。

In summary, it was another strong quarter for LP. We executed our strategy safely, and we're well positioned to see continued growth and margin expansion in 2025 and beyond. And with that, we'll be happy to take a round of questions.

總而言之，對於 LP 來說，這是另一個強勁的季度。我們安全地執行了我們的策略，並且我們有能力在 2025 年及以後實現持續成長和利潤率擴張。至此，我們將很樂意回答一系列問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

蘇珊·馬克拉里，高盛。

Thank you. morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. Good morning.

謝謝。早安，大家。感謝您提出問題。早安.

And maybe starting on Alan's comments on CapEx. Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing in the business and how you're thinking about the demand that will come through over the next several years that has driven the decision to perhaps invest in the the next wave of capacity additions in Siding?

也許可以從艾倫對資本支出的評論開始。您能否談談您在業務中看到的情況以及您如何看待未來幾年將出現的需求，這些需求促使您決定投資下一波產能增加的決定壁板？

So we are obviously very pleased with the growth we've seen this year and SmartSide on the recovery from a disappointing year last year. And as we project forward and at any reasonable growth rate, we're now getting to a point where we are on really looking at that next wave of capacity, what we're going to need.

因此，我們顯然對今年的成長感到非常滿意，也對 SmartSide 從去年令人失望的一年中的復甦感到非常滿意。隨著我們以任何合理的成長率向前推進，我們現在已經到了真正關注下一波產能的地步，即我們將需要什麼。

We do try to stay ahead of production, so we don't mind bringing on capacity a little bit early in order to minimize the chances of going on any kind of allocation. So that is -- given the growth this year that's resulted in us stepping up the planning for the next significant capacity expansion with Alan or I mentioned in the call against both of us did, we are looking at that investment next year, beginning that investment next year and that would get us up and running either late 2026 are in 2027, depending on the timing and how the year plays out next year's how our Siding grow.

我們確實努力保持領先於生產，因此我們不介意提前一點增加產能，以盡量減少任何類型分配的機會。因此，考慮到今年的成長導致我們與艾倫或我在反對我們的電話中提到的下一次重大產能擴張的計劃，我們正在考慮明年的投資，開始這項投資明年，這將使我們能夠在2026 年末或2027 年啟動並運行，具體取決於時間安排以及明年的情況以及我們的壁板發展。

Okay, that's helpful. Maybe just thinking about priced for 2025, you mentioned that you saw half of the (inaudible) this quarter coming from mix versus on a like for like basis. But as you think about putting pricing through for next year, can you just talk a little bit about the range that you expected and how you're managing the inventories heading into that increase?

好的，這很有幫助。也許只是考慮 2025 年的定價，您提到您看到本季的一半（聽不清楚）來自混合與同類基礎。但是，當您考慮明年的定價時，您能否簡單談談您預期的範圍以及您如何管理庫存成長？

Sure. So we're back to kind of historical normal price increase environment that we were experiencing pre-COVID. So we're out currently with a gross price increase depending on skew in region of 4% to 5% and we believe we'll net around three. At least it's a good way to plan for next year that excludes any kind of mix change next year.

當然。因此，我們又回到了新冠疫情前所經歷的歷史正常價格上漲環境。因此，目前我們的總價格上漲幅度取決於 4% 至 5% 的偏差，我們相信我們的淨價將達到 3% 左右。至少這是一個為明年做計劃的好方法，排除了明年任何類型的組合變化。

The price increases effective January 1, and we will be limiting on sales in December so that we don't get -- we have tried to minimize pull forward as a result of the price increase and set ourselves in our own distribution by makes up for a really good Q1 as for sales goes. So that's the current plan and we're executing to it. And as I mentioned, we are out with that price increase. So it is in the market now.

價格上漲從1 月1 日起生效，我們將限制12 月的銷售，這樣我們就不會得到——我們已經嘗試最大限度地減少價格上漲帶來的影響，並通過彌補來將自己置於我們自己的分銷中。這就是當前的計劃，我們正在執行它。正如我所提到的，我們不再接受價格上漲。所以現在市場上也是這樣。

Okay. That's helpful color. Thank you. Good luck with everything.

好的。這是有用的顏色。謝謝。祝一切順利。

Thank you. You're welcome.

謝謝。不客氣。

Michael Roxland, Truist Securities.

邁克爾·羅克克蘭 (Michael Roxland)，Truist 證券公司。

Yes. Thank you, Brad, Alan and Aaron for taking my questions and congrats on a very strong quarter.

是的。感謝布拉德、艾倫和亞倫回答我的問題，並祝賀這個季度的表現非常強勁。

First question I have this at your SmartSide has continued to gain share and what does the competitive response from fiber cement final? Have you seen increasing price pressures? Are they trying to retain and win back some share and what has been LP's response?

第一個問題，我在您的 SmartSide 上看到的這一點已繼續獲得份額，纖維水泥最終的競爭反應是什麼？您是否看到價格壓力不斷增加？他們是否試圖保留並贏回一些份額？

Well, look, we're competing in a very competitive environment. That's always been the case by about 25 years of working around SmartSide business. And so I would say the competitive situation is normal. And so we are negotiating deals with big builders, obviously, there's a couple of counterparty that's trying to hold on the business on and so that typically the kind of with -- from a pricing standpoint that is managed through back-end rebates from US customers.

嗯，看，我們正在一個競爭非常激烈的環境中競爭。在從事 SmartSide 業務約 25 年以來，情況一直如此。所以我想說競爭情況是正常的。因此，我們正在與大型建築商談判交易，顯然，有幾個交易對手試圖繼續維持業務，因此，從定價的角度來看，通常是透過美國客戶的後端回扣進行管理的。

But I would say right now still kind of normal as far as what we have to do in order to secure this business. So I think primarily what's beginning to be realized in the market more and more as just the value proposition of the product. It is superior to the substrates that each quarter in there. And that is much of the reasons we're winning is any pricing concessions.

但我想說，就我們為確保這項業務所必須採取的措施而言，現在仍然很正常。因此，我認為市場上開始越來越意識到產品的價值主張。它優於那裡每季的基材。我們獲勝的大部分原因是價格優惠。

Got it. Okay. Thanks for that, Brad. And then just quickly on (inaudible) in Houlton Mill that you may have not been running fully. What's your -- given that you do intend to add capacity, what's the outlook into? I guess one, whether we'll have those mills currently operate and where do you see them to operate next year that would want you to bring on our aim to bring on new capacity call on a year and a half or two years now? Thank you.

知道了。好的。謝謝你，布拉德。然後在霍爾頓米爾（Houlton Mill）快速前進（聽不清），您可能還沒有完全跑動。鑑於您確實打算增加產能，您的前景如何？我想，我們目前是否會讓這些工廠運營，您認為它們明年將在哪裡運營，希望您能實現我們在一年半或兩年內增加新產能的目標？謝謝。

I'll take a whack at that. In Q3, our volume was $460 million on a nameplate capacity of 2.3. So that annualizes out the utilization in the high 70% to 80% range. Of course, with seasonality, Q2 and Q3 will tend to be a little bit heavier than Q1 and Q4. So with that pattern continues, you just sort of project that forward and that gives us the confidence that we'll need capacity in the timeframe that Brad mentioned earlier.

我會對此進行打擊。第三季度，我們的銷售額為 4.6 億美元，銘牌容量為 2.3。因此，年化利用率在 70% 到 80% 的高範圍內。當然，由於季節性因素，第二季和第三季往往會比第一季和第四季重一些。因此，隨著這種模式的繼續，您只需向前進行預測，這讓我們有信心在布拉德之前提到的時間範圍內需要產能。

(inaudible) and Houlton and Bath are all running very well, but they exist within a system. And so their capacity utilization is a function of product mix and geographic demand patterns and a lot of other factors that we're very pleased with the ramp up.

（聽不清楚）霍爾頓和巴斯都運作得很好，但它們存在於一個系統內。因此，他們的產能利用率是產品組合、地理需求模式以及許多其他因素的函數，我們對產能利用率的提高感到非常滿意。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sean Steuart, TD Cowen.

肖恩·斯圖爾特，TD·考恩。

Thanks. Good morning and congrats on a very good result. Brad, wondering if you can give some context on the Siding expansion options as you look ahead, as we start to build CapEx in '25, in '26, in your forecasts. Whether it's expansion at existing sites, Wawa, what you're thinking of in terms of the best option and for adding supply?

謝謝。早安，恭喜取得了很好的成績。Brad，想知道您是否可以在展望未來時提供一些有關側板擴展選項的背景信息，因為我們在您的預測中開始在 25 年、26 年建立資本支出。無論是現有站點的擴張，Wawa，您在最佳選擇和增加供應方面的想法是什麼？

Yes. Great question. So let me let me just remind the audience of the options that we have. We do have two remaining Aspen based OSB mills, one in Quebec, one in British Columbia, that is a potential -- future of potential conversion option for us. We do have the idle facility in Wawa, Ontario, that we're now studying in detail.

是的。很好的問題。因此，請允許我提醒觀眾我們擁有的選擇。我們確實還有兩家位於阿斯彭的定向刨花板工廠，一家位於魁北克省，一家位於不列顛哥倫比亞省，這對我們來說是一個潛在的未來轉換選擇。我們在安大略省瓦瓦確實有閒置設施，我們現在正在進行詳細研究。

And then we have options at existing Siding mills to press lines. And so all those are still on that table for this next wave of capacity. What will drive the decision will be, first of all, the feasibility of converting that one of the either of the two Aspen based mills in Canada, those are large press setups. In either case, [Milwaukee] or Peace Valley would be, by far, the biggest press existing in our Siding operations.

然後我們可以在現有的壁板工廠選擇沖壓線。因此，所有這些仍然在下一波容量的桌子上。首先，推動這項決定的因素是改造加拿大阿斯彭兩家工廠之一的可行性，這些工廠都是大型印刷機裝置。無論哪種情況，[密爾瓦基]或和平谷都將是我們側線業務中現有的最大壓力機。

And so that there is some technical things we'd need to work out of Mac Data feasible conversion at this time and then we have Wawa and adding a press line at our at our existing facility. I like both of those options. What will drive the decision there will be capital capital efficiency.

因此，此時我們需要對 Mac 資料進行一些技術上的可行轉換，然後我們擁有 Wawa 並在我們現有的設施中添加一條沖壓線。我喜歡這兩個選擇。推動決策的因素將是資本效率。

As it relates to those two, Wawa is essentially a mill startup for us. We're adding a press line might be a little bit more on capital, less capital intensive, but then also weighing into that we now run our Siding a portfolio as a network.

就這兩者而言，Wawa 對我們來說本質上是一家工廠新創公司。我們正在增加一條新聞線，這可能會更專注於資本，減少資本密集度，但同時也考慮到我們現在將我們的壁板投資組合作為一個網路來運作。

And so when you when you look at that, the way we distribute SKUs across our current platform, you look at their location, you look at where we're growing geographically with customers that can swing us regionally into favoring capacity at a mill in Houlton, Maine versus a mill in Ontario versus a mill in Sagola, Michigan, a mill in Dawson Creek, British Columbia.

因此，當你看到這一點時，我們在當前平台上分配SKU 的方式，你會看到它們的位置，你會看到我們在地理上與客戶一起成長的地方，這些客戶可以使我們在區域上偏向霍爾頓一家工廠的產能。

So all that we're still in the preliminary phase of planning that out from a network optimization, capital efficiency. What we would probably be doing soon is ordering some of the or getting approval from our Board to order some of the equipment that is kind of side agnostic.

因此，我們仍處於網路優化和資本效率規劃的初步階段。我們可能很快就會做的是訂購一些與側面無關的設備或獲得董事會的批准訂購一些與側面無關的設備。

And then when we get into the middle part of next year, that's when we'll really have to be sharpening the pencils on location and making a commitment to where. But at this point, that decision has not been made, but we've got a ton of great options, that's the point. And on and we will do -- we'll make the decision based on net present values of the equivalent capacity that we made.

然後，當我們進入明年中期時，那時我們真的必須在現場削鉛筆並做出承諾。但目前尚未做出決定，但我們有很多不錯的選擇，這就是重點。接下來，我們將根據我們所做的等效容量的淨現值做出決定。

That's great detail. Thanks for that. My second question, Brad, is a hypothetical one. Wondering if there any internal views if Trump wins the election and proceeds with a blanket tariff on imports. Is there any internal view on that, I guess, your exposure to Canadian panel and our imports of Canadian panels into the US, with the US MCA protect against us? A loaded question but wondering if you have any internal views on that.

這是非常詳細的。謝謝你。布拉德，我的第二個問題是一個假設性問題。想知道如果川普贏得選舉並繼續對進口產品徵收全面關稅，內部人士是否有任何看法。我想，你們對加拿大面板的敞口以及我們向美國進口加拿大面板並受到美國 MCA 的保護，對此有什麼內部看法嗎？這是一個沉重的問題，但想知道您對此是否有任何內部看法。

Look, let me just -- the one thing that I think that we should be transparent about -- I don't really have a view on it impacting panel flow across the border, OSB or Siding. We do on get a significant portion of our MDI from a source in China. And while we have been working through the tariff issues in the economics around that as part of over the past month, since Trump took office and Biden kept the truck, the tariffs in place, that's the only kind of cost risk that we would be facing.

聽著，讓我說——我認為我們應該透明的一件事——我真的不認為它會影響跨邊界、定向刨花板或壁板的面板流動。我們確實有很大一部分 MDI 來自中國。儘管我們在過去一個月裡一直在解決圍繞這個問題的經濟關稅問題，但自從川普上任、拜登保留了卡車、關稅以來，這是我們面臨的唯一一種成本風險。

There's never been any limitations on OSB or any tariff on OSB going across the border so I don't anticipate that becoming something that in the near term. But I mean, who knows, so I will respond accordingly. And I mean, there would be certainly an impact on OSB pricing if all of the sudden Canadian OSB couldn't flow into the US.

定向刨花板從未受到任何限制，跨境定向刨花板也沒有任何關稅，因此我預計短期內不會出現這種情況。但我的意思是，誰知道呢，所以我會做出相對應的回應。我的意思是，如果加拿大定向刨花板突然無法流入美國，肯定會對定向刨花板定價產生影響。

And so just that would be a lot of offsets of kind of understanding what the true impact of that would be. But I don't -- we're not planning on that being an issue. Whoever wins the election, but keeping an eye on imported raw material from China could be impactful to the industry, and it would be impactful for us as it relates to MDR purchases.

因此，這將在很大程度上抵消對它的真正影響的理解。但我不——我們不打算讓這成為一個問題。無論誰贏得選舉，但密切關注從中國進口的原材料都可能對該行業產生影響，而且對我們也會產生影響，因為這與 MDR 採購有關。

Understood. That's all I had. Thanks very much.

明白了。這就是我所擁有的一切。非常感謝。

Steven Ramsey, Thompson Research Group.

史蒂文·拉姆齊，湯普森研究小組。

Good morning. A couple of questions on Builder Series. First one being the attached rate on that product have been very strong year to date. First, is this something that could have upside on the attached rates as you look into 2025? And then maybe just stepping back is Builder Series a net benefit to mix for these attached rates?

早安.關於 Builder 系列的幾個問題。第一個是該產品的附加費率今年迄今非常強勁。首先，展望 2025 年，附加費率是否可能會上漲？然後，也許退一步來說，建造者係列是否可以為這些附加費率帶來淨收益？

Well, first of all, let me take that into 2025 years. We are expecting continued success with that as we can -- as we build credibility with the big builder base and continue to work on the current becoming the choice for builders and those talks are ongoing, we're gaining our share of wins in those talks. And so yes, I see Builder Series growth being a meaningful part of our growth story for next year.

好吧，首先讓我把這個時間放到 2025 年。我們期待盡我們所能繼續取得成功——隨著我們與大型建築商建立信譽，並繼續努力使當前成為建築商的選擇，並且這些談判正在進行中，我們正在這些談判中獲得勝利。所以，是的，我認為 Builder 系列的成長是我們明年成長故事中有意義的一部分。

And then the second part of your question, I think is on their tax rates, that does pull through trend and soffit and some panel sales into the builder channel and even into distribution. And those typically waste for trim or higher margin items for us. So while I would say Builder Series is margin neutral to us as part of our portfolio, the pull through on other skews that are sold along with our Lap Siding, which is Builder Series, especially as it relates to trim, can be margin accretive to us.

然後你問題的第二部分，我認為是關於他們的稅率，這確實將趨勢和拱腹以及一些面板銷售引入建築商渠道，甚至分銷。這些通常會浪費在我們的裝飾或更高利潤的產品上。因此，雖然我想說，作為我們投資組合的一部分，Builder 系列對我們來說利潤率是中性的，但與我們的搭接壁板（即Builder 系列）一起銷售的其他傾斜產品的拉動，尤其是與裝飾相關的，可以增加利潤我們。

Okay. That's helpful. And then on always be structural shipments does being lower than commodity shipments for the last two quarters, kind of what is driving this in the near term? And then how are you thinking that this dynamic shapes up in Q4 heading into next year?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，過去兩個季度的結構性出貨量確實低於大宗商品出貨量，短期內推動這一趨勢的因素是什麼？那麼您認為這種動態在第四季到明年會如何？

What I mean, we're still -- we're really focused on growing our Structural Solutions as a percent of our portfolio, that can change, it does change quarter to quarter and frankly, as big builder business pools, commodity OSB for one thing. But also we do manage that around margins and so I think we're in a situation that we're making sure that selling Structural Solutions is margin accretive to us, when that's not, then we could go back to more commodity type sales.

我的意思是，我們仍然- 我們真正專注於增加我們的結構解決方案占我們投資組合的百分比，這是可以改變的，它確實每個季度都在變化，坦率地說，作為大型建築商業務池，商品定向刨花板是一個事物。但我們也確實圍繞著利潤進行管理，所以我認為我們所處的情況是，我們要確保銷售結構解決方案能夠為我們帶來利潤成長，如果不是，那麼我們可以回到更多商品類型的銷售。

So we're going to save the trend of Structural Solutions as part of our portfolio is going to continue to increase. But quarter to quarter there are variations and that can happen as the price and margin dynamics of our commodity, OSB and Structural Solutions and the preference for some of these big builder deals that we do might may pull, might wait commodity OSB greater than than what we would like in the moment. But ultimately, we're focused on a strategy to grow that. And I'm sure we'll be successful there. But in reality, they're going to be swings as it relates to what our customers want it to (inaudible).

因此，我們將挽救結構解決方案的趨勢，因為我們的產品組合的一部分將繼續增加。但每季都會出現變化，這種情況可能會發生，因為我們的商品、定向刨花板和結構解決方案的價格和利潤動態以及我們所做的一些大型建築商交易的偏好可能會拉動，可能會等待商品定向刨花板大於我們想在這一刻。但最終，我們專注於發展這項策略。我相信我們會在那裡取得成功。但實際上，它們會有所波動，因為它與我們的客戶想要的東西有關（聽不清楚）。

Makes sense. Thank you.

有道理。謝謝。

Matthew McKellar, RBC Capital Markets.

馬修·麥凱勒，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. At the Q4 citing revenue guidance implies EBITDA something like 13% quarter over quarter at the midpoint, I think. Which should be usually poor sequentially into Q4 compared to what you've done historically. Is there anything you're seeing the order file that suggests your recent pattern of outperforming normal revenue seasonality should reverse?

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我認為，在第四季度，引用收入指引意味著 EBITDA 環比中位數約為 13%。與您歷史上所做的相比，進入第四季度通常會很差。您看到的訂單檔案中是否有任何內容表明您最近表現優於正常收入季節性的模式應該會逆轉？

No, I'm not sure there's anything unusual here. But if you look back over the last couple of years, you reference normal. I'm not sure what normal is and I think that's the challenge we face. If you look at the profile of revenue in 2023, that was definitely abnormal. And we were -- as it were coming out of the destocking.

不，我不確定這裡有什麼不尋常的地方。但如果你回顧過去幾年，你會發現一切都很正常。我不確定什麼是正常，我認為這就是我們面臨的挑戰。如果你看一下 2023 年的收入概況，那絕對是不正常的。我們是——因為它是從去庫存中走出來的。

And again, generally speaking, bucking the seasonal seasonality trend. So what you're seeing reflected in Q4 right now and our Q4 guidance is every time I would tend to have most seasonally normal pattern if we jump back four or five years, as well as Brad mentioned earlier in response to one of the questions, as making sure that we effectively we manage demand relative to the January, the first price increase, that if the principal factors that make this Q4 compared to Q3, look a little stock.

總的來說，與季節性趨勢相反。因此，您現在在第四季度和我們的第四季度指導中看到的反映是，如果我們回溯四到五年，每次我都會傾向於擁有最季節性正常的模式，以及布拉德之前在回答其中一個問題時提到的，為了確保我們有效地管理相對於一月份的需求，第一次價格上漲，如果第四季度與第三季度相比的主要因素看起來有點庫存。

Okay. Thanks very much for that color. and the last one for me. Recognizing it's a somewhat smaller part of your business, how material do you expect a pickup in South American volumes to be with the investment in the modular housing business you've noted? And could you just provide a bit more color around why this was an attractive investment therapy?

好的。非常感謝那種顏色。最後一個是給我的。考慮到它在您的業務中所佔的比例較小，您預計南美銷量的增長會隨著您所注意到的模組化住房業務的投資而增加多少？您能否提供更多資訊來解釋為什麼這是一種有吸引力的投資療法？

The South America strategy from day one has been a conversion strategy away from a scenario type of construction. This investment really is strategic for us in that this joint venture partner is a major manufacturer module housing and integrated all the way through to the sale of that in the real estate development. So it's very strategic partner and have been a large customer for us.

南美戰略從第一天起就是一種脫離場景類型建構的轉換策略。這項投資對我們來說確實具有戰略意義，因為這個合資夥伴是一家主要的模組住房製造商，並一直整合到房地產開發中的銷售。因此，它是非常重要的策略合作夥伴，並且一直是我們的大客戶。

So immediately there won't be income of the significant volume -- incremental volume because we have been essentially supplying that product anyway. But as we look at continuing to grow the share of that build homes across South America best for, we see the strategic fit. And so this is a long-term play, we'll be happy to speak to it quarter to quarter as we get further into it. But materially, it won't impact what we're doing this quarter are probably next year. Because again, we had that business secured pretty volatile.

因此，立即不會有大量收入——增量收入，因為無論如何我們基本上一直在供應該產品。但當我們考慮繼續增加南美洲最適合建造房屋的份額時，我們看到了策略契合。因此，這是一個長期的遊戲，隨著我們進一步深入，我們將很樂意逐季度地討論它。但實質上，它不會影響我們本季或明年所做的事情。因為我們的業務非常不穩定。

Okay. Thanks very much. I'll turn it back.

好的。非常感謝。我會把它轉回來。

Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners.

馬克‧溫特勞布 (Mark Weintraub)，海港研究夥伴。

Thank you. Congrats on another very good quarter. So what I was hoping to get a little more color on is if we look at that 17% volume increase that you're projecting for Siding year over year, is it possible to give us a sense as to what it looks like in their categories are in our single-family sheds?

謝謝。恭喜又一個非常好的季度。因此，我希望獲得更多資訊的是，如果我們看看您預計壁板銷量逐年增加 17%，是否有可能讓我們了解其類別中的情況在我們的獨棟小屋裡嗎？

Yes. So let me just say directionally, the strength has been in new construction and R&R that is driven essentially all of this growth above trend line. The retail business has been okay, so let's just say about average and then shed has been flat this year. And so the strength has certainly been in new construction and repair and remodel. And it's been around I mean, our prime business has been phenomenal, but the Builder Series and ExpertFinish granted off a smaller base goes growth percent have been a significant upside to the year.

是的。因此，我只是從方向上說，新建築和 R&R 的優勢在於，它們基本上推動了所有高於趨勢線的成長。零售業務一直不錯，所以我們只說平均水平，然後今年的銷售量持平。因此，實力肯定是在新建、維修和改造方面。我的意思是，我們的主要業務一直是驚人的，但 Builder Series 和 ExpertFinish 授予的較小基數的成長率是今年的顯著上升。

And then, Brad, how much is there a way that you can assess how much is a function of same store sales growth versus your expanding distribution base?

然後，布拉德，有什麼方法可以評估同店銷售成長與不斷擴大的分銷基礎之間的函數關係有多大？

Yes. So let me take that first segment. So for new construction, having the big builder credibility that's come along with some of these deals that we've been able to get to this year does bring around, not necessarily -- not net, not two-step distribution adds, but it does bring lumberyard adds in the geographic areas.

是的。讓我來談談第一部分。因此，對於新建築來說，擁有大型建築商的信譽以及我們今年達成的一些交易確實帶來了一定的影響，不是淨增加，不是兩步分配增加，但它確實帶來了影響。新增到該地理區域。

We're gaining new business with a bit over so that kind of new lumber yard distribution is incremental. And that usually means to an inventory build -- small inventory build because these aren't two steppers, but it's an inventory build and then pull through and ancillary sales to the customer that we aim.

我們正在獲得新的業務，因此新的木材場分佈是增量的。這通常意味著庫存建設——小庫存建設，因為它們不是兩個步進器，而是庫存建設，然後向我們的目標客戶進行輔助銷售。

But also if you've got placement at the lumber yard, you're getting sales to other builders and contractors that existed and didn't have access to the product before. So that has been an important part of the story this year for new construction.

而且，如果您在木材場獲得了安置，您就可以向其他現有但以前無法使用該產品的建築商和承包商進行銷售。因此，這是今年新建築故事的重要組成部分。

And then repair and remodel, that is metering contractor. Okay. Sorry. Securing a contractor loyalty is a big part of what we're doing with these incremental marketing and sales spans. But that also is accompanied by continued growth in our one-step distribution of geographic channel exposure. And so that has been something that we are coming out of allocation we've really been focused on. So while we're gaining market share ultimately with contractors and R&R and builders in new construction, there is the added benefit somewhat necessary reality of adding distribution as we go along.

然後進行維修改造，即計量承包商。好的。對不起。確保承包商的忠誠度是我們透過增量行銷和銷售跨度所做的工作的重要組成部分。但這也伴隨著我們的地理管道曝光的一步式分佈的持續增長。因此，這是我們從分配中真正關注的事情。因此，雖然我們最終在新建築中贏得了承包商、R&R 和建築商的市場份額，但隨著我們的發展，增加分銷也帶來了額外的好處，這在某種程度上是必要的現實。

And as you think about maybe where you are in the lifecycle of that process, is next year potentially gain also benefit significantly from this? Or maybe how should we be thinking about these two drivers almost the single stores versus the expanded base?

當您考慮您處於該流程生命週期的哪個位置時，明年是否也可能從中受益匪淺？或者也許我們應該如何考慮這兩個驅動因素（幾乎是單一商店與擴大的基地）？

Our R&R, I would say we're still underexposed enough to where we will continue to add one-step distribution locations through as ExpertFinish becomes more available through our capacity expansion. That will be a significant part of our growth for, Mark, probably for the next several years as we grow that market share into -- because we still have pockets of geographical weakness where we don't have strong distribution there.

我想說的是，我們的 R&R 仍然暴露不足，我們將繼續增加一站式分銷地點，因為 ExpertFinish 透過我們的產能擴張變得更加可用。馬克，這可能是我們未來幾年成長的重要組成部分，因為我們仍然有一些地理弱點，在那裡我們沒有強大的分銷。

And then for new construction or for the traditional channel to market to to new construction, I think that will be localized around a regional win with a big builder and then the necessary lumber yard adds that have to go to support those wins. So that might not be quite as significant as landing (inaudible) has been this year to that. But there still is opportunities for further penetration within the channel in both those areas.

然後，對於新建築或新建築的傳統行銷管道，我認為這將圍繞與大型建築商的區域勝利進行本地化，然後增加必要的木材場來支持這些勝利。因此，這可能不像今年的著陸（聽不清楚）那麼重要。但這兩個領域的管道內仍有進一步滲透的機會。

I appreciate it. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

我很感激。我會把它留在那裡。謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Ketan Mamtora, BMO Capital Markets.

Ketan Mamtora，BMO 資本市場。

Good morning and congrats on a very strong quarter, especially in Siding, maybe just sticking with the Siding expansion that in the past you've also talked about, the product categories that inciting where you see growth would also be one of the factors in deciding where you will expand capacity. Is that still one of the factors or is that becoming less of a factor given your size now?

早安，恭喜一個非常強勁的季度，尤其是在Siding，也許只是堅持您過去也談到的Siding擴張，刺激您看到增長的產品類別也將是決定的因素之一您將在其中擴展容量。這仍然是影響因素之一嗎？

No, that's a good point. That is a factor. And as some as you know, Ketan, some of the mills that we have converted, Dawson in particular -- no, I'm sorry. The Swan mill and Sagola mill or have large presses that are conducive to panel production for Houlton was a smaller mill, more conducive to lap and trim and soffit production.

不，這是一個好點。這是一個因素。正如你們所知，Ketan，我們已經改造了一些工廠，特別是道森——不，我很抱歉。Swan工廠和Sagola工廠都擁有大型壓機，有利於面板生產，而Houlton則擁有較小的工廠，更有利於搭接、修邊和拱腹生產。

And so when I speak of those opportunities around the press size and around the location, we will be looking at the skew of distribution, a portfolio profile as we make the decisions. The more we are looking at lap and trim as where we need volume, the less appealing a larger press size maybe to us. And the more that may swing us back to adding a press line, of kind of a specialized press line at an existing facility. So that is certainly a factor. And just given all we've talked about in the last few calls in this call, in particular, the growth really is in lap and trim more so than in panel right now, which would kind of push us to a more specialized setup as far as the next mill conversion.

因此，當我談到圍繞印刷機規模和地點的機會時，我們在做出決策時將考慮分佈的傾斜，即投資組合概況。我們越是專注於捲邊和修剪作為我們需要體積的地方，對我們來說，更大的印刷機尺寸的吸引力就越小。更重要的是，我們可能會重新考慮在現有設施中添加一條沖壓線，一種專門的沖壓線。所以這肯定是一個因素。考慮到我們在本次電話會議的最後幾次電話會議中討論的所有內容，特別是，增長確實是在圈中，並且比現在在面板中修剪得更多，這將推動我們採取更專業的設置作為下一個工廠的轉換。

All right. That's helpful. And then just one more on Siding. Outside of the seasonality, Brad, as you look at demand, factors, drivers, are you seeing anything as you move to Q3 and October? It's things that either starting to look a little bit better in terms of order activity are still the same and there is uncertainty? How would you characterize in terms of activity?

好的。這很有幫助。然後在賽丁上又多了一個。除了季節性之外，Brad，當您研究需求、因素、驅動因素時，您在第三季和 10 月時看到了什麼嗎？是不是訂單活動開始好轉了一些，但仍然是一樣的，並且存在不確定性？您如何描述活動的特徵？

I would say activity has been good -- okay to good this slide in the season. Weather patterns have been warm across the country, so that certainly helped.

我想說的是，活動一直都很好——這個賽季的這張幻燈片還不錯。全國各地的天氣都很溫暖，這肯定有幫助。

But Ketan, it feels like a pre-COVID solid year as far as how we been -- how our order file has been stayed steady throughout the fall so far. And how we've been able to took from the visibility we've had inventories in the channel, see kind of like, as we mentioned, normal inventories. So I mean, it's just been a really, really solid year across the board.

但 Ketan，就我們的表現而言，這感覺像是新冠疫情爆發前的堅實一年——到目前為止，我們的訂單文件在整個秋季都保持穩定。我們如何從渠道中的庫存可見性中獲得信息，就像我們提到的那樣，看到正常的庫存。所以我的意思是，從整體來說，這是非常非常堅實的一年。

And we're continuing to see, given the season that we're in, a nice order file. And I don't really don't see that being a ton of risk to that given the price increase that we have announced now. So we feel good as we've reflected in our guidance about the rest of the year. And as we get closer to next year, we're feeling better and better about what we are able to execute to next year.

考慮到我們所處的季節，我們將繼續看到一個不錯的訂單文件。鑑於我們現在宣布的價格上漲，我真的不認為這會帶來很大的風險。因此，我們感覺良好，正如我們在今年剩餘時間的指導中所反映的那樣。隨著明年的臨近，我們對明年能夠執行的任務感覺越來越好。

That's very helpful. Good luck, and I'll lead them back into queue.

這非常有幫助。祝你好運，我會帶領他們重新排隊。

Kurt Yinger of D.A. Davidson.

D.A. 的庫爾特·英格戴維森。

Great. Thanks, and good morning, everyone. Without trying to pin you down on 2025 guidance, I'm curious with the visibility you have on the Builder Series and take builder side and some of the expanded stocking position you've discussed. How does that play into your thoughts around goal or potential level of market outperformance as we look into next year within the Siding business?

偉大的。謝謝，大家早安。我不想試圖向您確定 2025 年的指導，但我很好奇您對 Builder 系列和建築商方面的可見度以及您討論過的一些擴大的庫存位置。當我們展望明年的壁板業務時，這對您關於目標或潛在市場表現水平的想法有何影響？

Well, if you look at the outlook for single-family or for new construction starts next year is flat, we're not planning to be flat. And so I think the momentum that we've generated this year having the capacity and being off allocation, we're feeling better and better about next year. I mean, there's all kind of -- we got political risk, we've got a tariff risk. I mean, there's all there's all kind of potential headwinds, but we feel like the value proposition for our product is very strong as we continue to gain exposure in the field with the contractors and builders that credibility around the product offering is beginning -- is growing as well.

好吧，如果你看看明年單戶住宅或新建築開工的前景是持平的，那麼我們不打算持平。因此，我認為我們今年產生的勢頭，有能力並且沒有分配，我們對明年的感覺越來越好。我的意思是，我們有各種各樣的政治風險，我們有關稅風險。我的意思是，存在各種潛在的阻力，但我們覺得我們產品的價值主張非常強大，因為我們繼續在承包商和建築商的領域獲得曝光，圍繞產品提供的可信度正在開始 - 是也在成長。

And so, I feel like kind of pre-COVID growth rates on that we've had -- that we enjoy the 8% to 10% is certainly something we should be able to execute to. I'm not guiding for next year, but that would be the historical pattern we've had, and we'll get more specific about it on the next call. But I feel good about that, but we'll have to take a good, solid look at the headwinds that we what we see over the next two or three months as we make that call for for how we guide next year.

因此，我覺得我們應該能夠實現新冠疫情之前的成長率——我們享有 8% 到 10% 的成長率。我不會為明年提供指導，但這將是我們已經擁有的歷史模式，我們將在下次電話會議上更具體地說明這一點。但我對此感覺很好，但在我們呼籲明年如何指導時，我們必須認真、紮實地審視未來兩三個月內所看到的不利因素。

Right. I appreciate that. And on the comment on value proposition kind of ties into my next question, clearly, we haven't seen it at all yet, but with the affordability challenges and efforts by builders to take cost out, does that change the dynamic for premium materials like your own and conversion from maybe less expensive substrates that we've seen historically? I'm just curious if you have any high-level thoughts around that in the current backdrop.

正確的。我很欣賞這一點。關於價值主張的評論與我的下一個問題有關，顯然，我們還沒有看到它，但是隨著負擔能力的挑戰以及建築商為降低成本所做的努力，這是否會改變優質材料的動態，例如您自己的以及從我們歷史上見過的可能更便宜的基材轉換而來的？我只是好奇在當前背景下您是否對此有任何高層想法。

Yes. The affordability, I think does play a little bit to the strength of vinyl Siding, it ultimately just purely a cost play. Vinyl Siding is the products that have a contractor builders to choose. But when you have things like are prefinished Siding now which ExpertFinish is going into new construction so you eliminate the painting step in new construction that can be -- that can help the affordability of a home. And then as we -- the labor savings that has realized from -- and primarily the labor savings that is realized by using a SmartSide versus all other substrates can be -- is real.

是的。我認為負擔能力確實發揮了乙烯基壁板的優勢，它最終只是純粹的成本遊戲。乙烯基壁板是承包商建築商可以選擇的產品。但是，當您擁有像預塗壁板這樣的東西時，ExpertFinish 正在進入新建築，這樣您就可以消除新建築中的油漆步驟，這可以幫助提高房屋的可負擔性。然後，正如我們所實現的——主要是透過使用 SmartSide 相對於所有其他基材實現的勞動力節省——是真實的。

And as builders and contractors experience the product, they realize that and that's what strengthens the value proposition that I spoke to earlier. That makes us confident that this penetration that we've been enjoying the past 12 months or something that we can grow off of next year.

當建築商和承包商體驗產品時，他們意識到這一點，這也強化了我之前談到的價值主張。這讓我們相信，我們在過去 12 個月中一直享受著這種滲透，或者明年我們可以繼續發展。

Right. Okay. And mix, that makes sense. And just to squeeze one more, Alan, in terms of Q3 to Q4 Siding EBITDA, could you maybe just level set on a one-time maintenance or project Impact embedded within that?

正確的。好的。混合起來，這是有道理的。艾倫，為了再壓縮一點，就第三季到第四季的側板 EBITDA 而言，您是否可以對一次性維護或嵌入其中的專案影響進行水平設定？

Yes, I'll do it. I'll do it with reference to Q3, though, I'm going to sort of put a setup in my prepared remarks.

是的，我會做的。不過，我將參考第三季來做這件事，我將在我準備好的評論中進行一些設定。

If you take $123 million from Q3, there was about $5 million in that that we had intended to one-time costs and inventory, this reduction that we intended to do in in Q4, we did we did in Q3, we did the opposite in Q3. So let's look shipped $5 million between those two, right? So I'm going to take 123 knock off 5 from Q3 and get 118. I'm going to take that 5 and add it on to the midpoint of our range for Q4, which could be 75 plus 5 so $80 million. Lives is about $38 million to explain, about $30 million of that would be the impact of the lower volume in from Q3 to Q4. And the balance, call it $8 million to 10 million is the one-time, think of it as the one-time maintenance costs and mill downtime that we, as a matter of necessity, we have to take to perform the necessary maintenance in Q4, and that's the principal difference.

如果你從第三季拿走1.23 億美元，大約有500 萬美元是我們打算一次性成本和庫存的，我們打算在第四季度減少成本，我們在第三季度做了，我們在第三季度做了相反的事。那麼讓我們看看這兩者之間的運費是 500 萬美元，對吧？所以我將從 Q3 中拿走 123 淘汰 5 並得到 118。我將把這個 5 添加到我們第四季度範圍的中點，這可能是 75 加 5，所以 8000 萬美元。《Live》的成本約為 3,800 萬美元，其中約 3,000 萬美元將受到第三季至第四季銷售下降的影響。餘額，稱其為 800 萬至 1000 萬美元，是一次性的，將其視為一次性維護成本和工廠停機時間，作為必要的問題，我們必須在第四季度執行必要的維護，這就是主要區別。

Also, if you didn't ask between the Q4 EBITDA and Q1 EBITDA, very similar revenue levels. But a lower EBITDA because in Q1 of this year, we were not taking that downtime and building inventory. And in Q4, we're taking that necessary downtime and depleting inventory. So you get that sort of both double double whammy from a negative absorption on inventory, as well as the necessary downtime.

另外，如果您不問第四季 EBITDA 和第一季 EBITDA 之間的營收水準非常相似。但 EBITDA 較低，因為在今年第一季度，我們沒有採取停工和建立庫存的措施。在第四季度，我們將採取必要的停機時間並耗盡庫存。因此，你會因為庫存的負面吸收以及必要的停機時間而受到雙重打擊。

Got it. Okay. Appreciate the color.

知道了。好的。欣賞顏色。

(multiple speakers) Sorry, I spoke earlier.

（多個發言者）抱歉，我剛才已經發言了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would like to turn it back to management for closing remarks.

目前我不會再提出任何問題。我想將其轉回給管理層以供結束語。

Okay. Operator, thank you very much. And thank you, everyone, for joining us. With no further questions, we'll bring the call to a close. Everyone, stay safe, and we'll look forward to seeing you again next quarter.

好的。接線員，非常感謝您。感謝大家加入我們。如果沒有其他問題，我們將結束通話。大家注意安全，我們期待下個季度再次見到您。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的會議。這確實結束了該程式。您現在可以斷開連線。