Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q4 2024 Louisiana-Pacific corporation earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Aaron Howald, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 2024 年第四季路易斯安那太平洋公司財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人，投資者關係副總裁 Aaron Howald。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。

Thank you for joining us to discuss LP's results for the fourth quarter of 2024 as well as our full year results and our outlook for Q1 and 2025. Hosting the call with me this morning are Brad Southern, LP's Chief Executive Officer; and Alan Haughie, LP's Chief Financial Officer. After prepared remarks, we will take a round of questions.

感謝您與我們一起討論 LP 2024 年第四季度的業績以及我們的全年業績以及我們對第一季和 2025 年的展望。今天早上與我一起主持電話會議的是 LP 的首席執行官布拉德·索森 (Brad Southern)；以及 LP 首席財務官 Alan Haughie。準備好發言後，我們將進行一輪提問。

During this morning's call, we will refer to a presentation that has been posted to LP's IR web page, which is investor.lpcorp.com. Our 8K filing, earnings press release and other materials are also available there.

在今天早上的電話會議中，我們將參考已發佈到 LP 的 IR 網頁（即 investor.lpcorp.com）的簡報。我們的 8K 文件、收益新聞稿和其他資料也可在那裡取得。

Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial metrics as described on Slides 2 and 3 of the earnings presentation. The appendix also contains reconciliations that are further supplemented by this morning's 8-K filing. Rather than reading those materials, I will incorporate them by reference.

今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 財務指標，如收益報告的第 2 張和第 3 張幻燈片所述。附錄還包含由今天上午的 8-K 文件進一步補充的對帳表。我不會閱讀這些材料，而是透過引用來整合它們。

And with that, over to Brad.

接下來，交給布拉德。

Thanks, Aaron, and thank you again for joining us today. Q4 was a strong finish to a record year for Siding that featured growth, share gains and margin expansion. In 2024, Siding set records for net sales and EBITDA overall as well as multiple records for export finish. In OSB, we saw slightly higher market prices than in 2023, but more importantly, the business executed our strategy effectively, grew structural solutions, increased operating efficiency and manage capacity with agility and discipline.

謝謝，Aaron，再次感謝你今天加入我們。Siding 在第四季度取得了創紀錄的成績，實現了成長、份額增加和利潤率擴大。2024年，Siding創下了淨銷售額和EBITDA總體記錄，以及多項出口完成記錄。在OSB方面，我們看到市場價格比2023年略高，但更重要的是，該業務有效地執行了我們的策略，發展了結構性解決方案，提高了營運效率，並靈活而有紀律地管理產能。

Page 5, of the presentation shows financial highlights for the fourth quarter and full year. In Q4, we saw the expected seasonal slowdown as winter weather brought the building season to a close. Compared to the prior year, Siding sales grew by 9% in the quarter. For LP as a whole, the net effect of Siding growth, a decline in OSB prices and an increase in OSB sales volumes resulted in $681 million in sales, $125 million in EBITDA and $105 million in operating cash flow.

簡報的第 5 頁展示了第四季和全年的財務亮點。在第四季度，由於冬季天氣導致建築季節結束，我們看到了預期的季節性放緩。與上年相比，本季壁板銷量成長了 9%。對於整個 LP 而言，壁板成長、OSB 價格下降和 OSB 銷售量增加的淨效應導致銷售額達到 6.81 億美元、EBITDA 達到 1.25 億美元，經營現金流達到 1.05 億美元。

After investing $61 million in sustaining maintenance and growth capital, LP returned $42 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. For the full year, Siding sales grew by 17% to $1.56 billion. Thanks to Siding growth, slightly higher OSB prices the margin expansion driven by increased capacity utilization and operating efficiency, we achieved $2.9 billion in sales and $688 million in EBITDA. These represent increases of 14% and 44%, respectively. This nearly doubled earnings per share to $5.88.

在投資 6,100 萬美元作為維持和成長資本後，LP 透過股息和股票回購向股東返還了 4,200 萬美元。全年來看，Siding 銷售額成長了 17%，達到 15.6 億美元。由於壁板業務的成長、定向刨花板價格的略微上漲以及產能利用率和營運效率的提高推動的利潤率擴大，我們實現了 29 億美元的銷售額和 6.88 億美元的 EBITDA。這兩個數字分別代表 14% 和 44% 的成長。這使得每股收益幾乎翻了一番，達到 5.88 美元。

LP (inaudible) to $605 million in operating cash flow to continue executing our capital allocation strategy by investing $183 million in CapEx and returning $286 million to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases. Most importantly, we accomplished this safely, ending the year with 0.67 total incident rate. This is considered a world-class TIR, but it's not good enough for LP. We will never stop working to improve our safety performance to ensure no one gets injured while working at LP.

LP（聽不清楚）的經營現金流達到 6.05 億美元，繼續執行我們的資本配置策略，投資 1.83 億美元的資本支出，並透過股利和股票回購向股東返還 2.86 億美元。最重要的是，我們安全地完成了這項工作，今年年底的總事故率為 0.67。這被認為是世界級的 TIR，但對於 LP 來說還不夠好。我們將永不停止努力提高我們的安全性能，以確保沒有人在 LP 工作時受傷。

As we look forward to 2025, the market is not radically different to what it was a year ago. On our call this time last year, we said that we expected 2024 to be a flat year for housing and a soft year for R&R, but we expected both businesses to outperform both markets. This is exactly what happened.

展望 2025 年，市場與一年前相比並沒有太大的差異。在去年這個時候的電話會議上，我們表示，預計 2024 年房屋市場將持平，R&R 市場將疲軟，但我們預計這兩項業務的表現都將優於兩個市場。事實確實如此。

In 2024, total US. housing starts were down 4% for the year and 6% in the fourth quarter. LP is over-indexed to single-family housing, which fared better, especially in the first half of the year. Single-family starts were up 7% for the full year, but down 5% in the fourth quarter. It's hard to be precise about the repair and remodeling market, but we estimate that total US. R&R expenditures were down low to mid-single digits.

2024 年，美國總計。今年新屋開工量下降了 4%，第四季下降了 6%。LP 對單戶住宅的指數化程度較高，這類住宅的表現較好，尤其是在今年上半年。全年獨棟住宅開工率上漲 7%，但第四季下降 5%。很難準確估計維修和改造市場，但我們估計美國的整體情況是這樣的。R&R 支出降至個位數中段。

Against this backdrop, Siding revenue grew by 9% in Q4 and 17% for the full year. We saw the resumption of normal seasonal demand patterns in Siding as well as broad-based growth in all product categories and in all geographies we serve. This growth is driven by new product innovation, our demand creation efforts superior product offerings and by our amazing teams that make it all happen.

在此背景下，Siding 第四季營收成長了 9%，全年營收成長了 17%。我們看到 Siding 恢復了正常的季節性需求模式，並且所有產品類別和我們服務的所有地區都實現了廣泛成長。這一成長是由新產品創新、我們的需求創造努力、優質的產品供應以及我們出色的團隊所推動的。

Volume growth enabled margin expansion for Siding as we more duly utilized our new capacity at LP's Houlton, Sagola and Bath facilities. As a result of this growth, Siding achieved our long-term EBITDA margin target of 25% for the full year despite a soft market. In OSB, despite housing starts below long-term average demand, the business achieved EBITDA above our long-term cycle average, thanks to efficient cost control and disciplined capacity management.

由於我們更充分地利用了 LP 的霍爾頓、薩戈拉和巴斯工廠的新產能，產量成長使 Siding 的利潤率得以擴大。由於這一成長，儘管市場疲軟，Siding 仍實現了全年 25% 的長期 EBITDA 利潤率目標。在 OSB 領域，儘管新屋開工量低於長期平均需求，但由於有效的成本控制和嚴格的產能管理，該業務的 EBITDA 高於長期週期平均水平。

The consensus expectation for housing starts in 2025 is looking like another flat year with perhaps a modest remound in R&R spending. Accordingly, in OSB, LP is planning for another year of operational excellence cost control and strategic execution. In Siding the focus is on share gains and volume growth. We are seeing encouraging evidence of that growth so far in 2025 with a healthy Siding order file that we will detail in our guidance discussion.

市場普遍預期 2025 年新屋開工量將再持平，R&R 支出或許會小幅回升。因此，在 OSB，LP 計劃再進行一年的卓越營運成本控制和策略執行。在 Siding，重點是份額增長和銷量增長。到 2025 年為止，我們已經看到了令人鼓舞的增長證據，並且擁有健康的 Siding 訂單文件，我們將在指導討論中詳細說明。

Accordingly, we are increasing our investments in new product innovation, demand creation and capacity expansion to meet our customers needs. 2024 was a relatively light year for capital investments. The recent conversions of our Sagola and Houlton mills and the opening of our pre-finishing facility in Bath gave us room to grow in Siding. If demand continues to increase, we want to ensure that we do not outgrow our Siding capacity.

因此，我們正在增加對新產品創新、需求創造和產能擴張的投資，以滿足客戶的需求。 2024 年是資本投資相對較少的一年。我們最近對 Sagola 和 Houlton 工廠進行了改造，並在巴斯開設了預加工工廠，這為我們在 Siding 的發展提供了空間。如果需求持續增加，我們希望確保我們的壁板產能不會超出其能力。

That means that 2025 and 2026 will see significantly increased investments in capacity expansion starting later this year. The next projects will include a second manufacturing line at LP Houlton, starting the next Siding expansion project after that and increasing capacity at our existing export finished pre-finishing facilities with a significant portion of this work happening in parallel.

這意味著從今年稍後開始，2025 年和 2026 年產能擴張投資將大幅增加。下一個項目將包括在 LP Houlton 建立第二條生產線，隨後啟動下一個 Siding 擴建項目，並提高我們現有的出口預加工設施的產能，其中很大一部分工作將同時進行。

At our historic volume growth rate of about 7% per year and our much higher growth rate for export finish prefinished Siding, these projects should be completed in time to keep Siding capacity utilization with inefficient balance. We would much rather be a little early than late with new capacity, and so we are starting now to preserve our ability to grow rather than risking an extended period of allocation like we saw during COVID.

按照我們每年約 7% 的歷史產量成長率和更高的出口預製壁板成長率，這些項目應該能及時完成，以保持壁板產能利用率與低效率平衡。我們寧願早一點增加產能，也不願晚一點增加產能，因此我們現在就開始保持我們的成長能力，而不是像在新冠疫情期間那樣冒著長期配置的風險。

As Alan will detail in a few minutes, we expect the Siding business to generate over $400 million in EBITDA this year, reinforcing our confidence that Siding can comfortably fund its own growth. The LP team is fully committed to executing our growth strategy, and I'm confident that we will continue to innovate new products, gain market share, operate safely and increase the scale and efficiency of our manufacturing network. With that, I will turn the call over to Alan to detail these investments, the financial results and our 2025 outlook, after which, we will take your questions.

正如艾倫幾分鐘後將詳細介紹的那樣，我們預計 Siding 業務今年的 EBITDA 將超過 4 億美元，這增強了我們對 Siding 能夠輕鬆資助自身成長的信心。LP團隊全力致力於執行我們的成長策略，我相信我們將繼續創新產品、獲得市場份額、安全營運並提高我們製造網路的規模和效率。接下來，我將把電話交給艾倫，詳細介紹這些投資、財務結果和我們的 2025 年展望，之後我們將回答您的問題。

Thanks, Brad.

謝謝，布拉德。

As Brad said, the fourth quarter brought the year to a strong finish. And as I'll explore in a few minutes, the first quarter of 2025 also seems to be shaping up well.

正如布拉德所說，第四季為今年畫上了圓滿的句點。正如我幾分鐘後將要探討的，2025 年第一季似乎也將呈現良好的勢頭。

Page 7, shows the fourth quarter waterfall for Siding. 2024 largely exhibited normal seasonal demand patterns with a sequential drop in volumes in the fourth quarter as building activity faded. Single-family starts were down not just seasonally, but also by 5 points year-over-year. Despite this, Siding volumes grew by 3%, beating single-family starts by 8 points.

第 7 頁展示了 Siding 的第四季瀑布。 2024 年基本上呈現正常的季節性需求模式，隨著建築活動的減少，第四季的需求量較上季下降。單戶住宅開工數量不僅出現季節性下降，而且年比也下降了 5 個百分點。儘管如此，外牆板銷量仍成長了 3%，比單戶住宅開工量高出 8 個百分點。

Higher selling prices added another 6 points of revenue growth, with roughly half coming from list price increases [the half] from mix. And we largely reinvested these earnings in selling and marketing and in meal staffing, with the expectation that 2025 demand will require higher production.

更高的銷售價格又使收入增加了 6 個百分點，其中大約一半來自標價上漲，而另一半則來自產品組合上漲。我們將這些收益主要重新投資於銷售、行銷和餐飲人員配備，預計 2025 年的需求將需要更高的產量。

For the full year on Page 8, Siding revenue grew by 17 points outgrowing the underlying markets, as Brad said. This growth added $230 million in revenue, $79 million of it from prices and $151 million from volume and it added $143 million in EBITDA, being the flow-through of $79 million in price with $64 million coming from volume.

正如布拉德所說，第 8 頁全年，壁板收入增加了 17 個百分點，超過了基礎市場。這一增長使收入增加了 2.3 億美元，其中 7,900 萬美元來自價格，1.51 億美元來自銷售；EBITDA 增加了 1.43 億美元，其中 7,900 萬美元來自價格，6,400 萬美元來自銷售量。

Increased investments in demand creation and mill staffing, partially offset by a $60 million benefit from raw material price deflation for 2024 to a close with a 25% EBITDA margin, 500 basis points higher than last year, 2023. We sold just over 1.7 billion square feet of siting in 2024, which is about 75% of our nameplate capacity. So we have a healthy runway of capacity to grow into while we execute new expansion projects.

需求創造和工廠人員配備的投資增加，部分抵銷了 2024 年原物料價格通縮帶來的 6,000 萬美元收益，最終實現 25% 的 EBITDA 利潤率，比去年（2023 年）高出 500 個基點。2024 年，我們的售出土地面積略高於 17 億平方英尺，約占我們額定容量的 75%。因此，我們在實施新的擴張項目時擁有健康的產能成長空間。

For OSB, on Page 9, the lower prices in the fourth quarter cost the segment about $18 million in both revenue and EBITDA. However, by effectively managing what we can control, the business recovered most of the revenue impact and half of the EBITDA impact of these lower prices through the combined effects of higher volumes, improved OEE and efficient raw material utilization.

對於第 9 頁的定向刨花板 (OSB)，第四季度的較低價格導致該部門的收入和 EBITDA 損失約 1800 萬美元。然而，透過有效管理我們能夠控制的因素，業務透過提高產量、改善 OEE 和高效利用原材料的綜合作用，恢復了大部分收入影響和一半的降價對 EBITDA 的影響。

Page 10, shows the full year for OSB. On average, prices were slightly higher year-over-year, but the $35 million pricing benefit was overshadowed somewhat by the $106 million in revenue and $55 million in EBITDA from higher commodity and structural solutions volumes, helped, of course, by a 3 percentage point improvement in OEE which, in essence, means that when we ran, we had so more efficiently.

第 10 頁顯示了 OSB 的全年情況。平均而言，價格同比略有上漲，但 3500 萬美元的定價收益在一定程度上被 1.06 億美元的收入和 5500 萬美元的 EBITDA 所掩蓋，這得益於商品和結構解決方案銷量的增加，當然，這得益於 OEE 提高了 3 個百分點，這實質上意味著當我們運行時，我們的效率更高。

Raw material deflation, labor inflation and a hodgepodge of other small items left the year at just under $1.2 billion in net sales and $298 million in EBITDA. So the fourth quarter was a bit below our declared cycle average quarterly EBITDA of $60 million for the year ended well above that level.

原物料通貨緊縮、勞動力價格上漲，以及其他一些小因素的影響，導致今年的淨銷售額略低於 12 億美元，EBITDA 為 2.98 億美元。因此，第四季的EBITDA略低於我們宣布的週期平均季度EBITDA 6000萬美元，但全年EBITDA遠高於該水準。

Page 11, shows cash flows for the quarter and full year. Both are pretty straightforward with EBITDA translating cleanly to operating cash flow, helped by a slight decrease in working capital and a normal cash tax rate. We invested to maintain and expand our manufacturing capabilities and returned most of the excess to shareholders, paying $74 million in dividends and $212 million in the year to repurchase shares at a volume-weighted average price below $90.

第 11 頁顯示了本季和全年的現金流。兩者都相當簡單，EBITDA 可以清楚地轉化為經營現金流，這得益於營運資本的輕微減少和正常的現金稅率。我們投資以維持和擴大我們的製造能力，並將大部分盈餘返還給股東，支付了 7,400 萬美元的股息，並在當年支付了 2.12 億美元以低於 90 美元的成交量加權平均價格回購股票。

LP ended 2024 with $340 million in cash, zero net debt and almost $900 million in total liquidity. As of February 14, LP has paid an additional $51 million to repurchase roughly 0.5 million more shares. And this leaves 69.7 million shares outstanding and $187 million remaining under the pre-existing share repurchase authorization.

截至 2024 年，LP 擁有 3.4 億美元現金、零淨債務和近 9 億美元的總流動資金。截至 2 月 14 日，LP 已額外支付 5,100 萬美元回購約 50 萬股股票。這樣，流通股數將達到 6,970 萬股，而先前授權的股票回購金額仍為 1.87 億美元。

Now LP's guidance for the first quarter and full year of 2025 is on Page 12. For Siding, the order file continues to be healthy and to be clear, consistent with the typical seasonal rebound early in the year. Now while there was minimal price lag in January, price realization now fully reflects the annual list price increases.

現在，LP 對 2025 年第一季和全年的指導在第 12 頁。對於 Siding 來說，訂單文件繼續保持健康和清晰，與年初典型的季節性反彈一致。雖然一月份的價格滯後很小，但現在的價格實現已經完全反映了年度標價上漲。

Accordingly, we expect sales growth in the first quarter between 9% and 11% for revenue in the $390 million to $400 million range. EBITDA should land between $95 million and $105 million for an EBITDA margin of about 25%. For the full year, although we currently expect flat housing starts, we nonetheless anticipate revenue growth of 7 points to 9 points bringing revenue to between $1.65 billion and $1.7 billion.

因此，我們預計第一季銷售額將成長 9% 至 11%，營收將在 3.9 億美元至 4 億美元之間。EBITDA 應在 9,500 萬美元至 1.05 億美元之間，EBITDA 利潤率約為 25%。就全年而言，儘管我們目前預計新屋開工數量將持平，但我們預計收入將增加 7 到 9 個百分點，達到 16.5 億美元到 17 億美元之間。

EBITDA should be between $415 million and $425 million for an EBITDA margin, again, of around 25%. And for OSB, assuming random length prices are flat to last Friday's published levels, we would expect first quarter EBITDA to land between $35 million and $45 million. And for future quarters, we offer no estimate of OSB prices and merely revert to cycle average as a reasonable approach to modeling the longer-term EBITDA potential of the OSB business.

EBITDA 應在 4.15 億美元至 4.25 億美元之間，EBITDA 利潤率也約為 25%。對於定向刨花板 (OSB)，假設隨機長度價格與上週五公佈的水平持平，我們預計第一季 EBITDA 將在 3500 萬美元至 4500 萬美元之間。對於未來幾個季度，我們不提供 OSB 價格的估計，而只是恢復週期平均值作為模擬 OSB 業務長期 EBITDA 潛力的合理方法。

I should note that while we're using the same algorithm to estimate cycle average EBITDA, the inclusion of 2024 data does increase net cycle average EBITDA slightly from $60 to $65 per 1,000 square feet, which is reflected in the outlook for the second through the fourth quarters. And finally, for the avoidance of doubt, we have insufficient clarity about them to incorporate any tariff impacts in our guidance. The first quarter and full year guidance, therefore, assumes the current state continues.

我應該指出，雖然我們使用相同的演算法來估算週期平均 EBITDA，但納入 2024 年數據確實會使淨週期平均 EBITDA 從每 1,000 平方英尺 60 美元略微增加到 65 美元，這反映在第二季至第四季的展望中。最後，為避免疑問，我們對這些因素的了解不夠清楚，無法將任何關稅影響納入我們的指導中。因此，第一季和全年的指導假設當前狀態持續下去。

Now if Siding growth proceeds on this trajectory, we will need new press capacity sometime in the next 2 to 3 years, and we'll need additional prefinishing capacity somewhat sooner. The chart on Page 13, shows the schedule of capacity additions that will be necessary to meet demand under these scenarios. As a result, 2025 will be a year of significant investment.

現在，如果 Siding 繼續按照這種軌跡成長，我們將在未來 2 到 3 年內需要新的壓力機產能，並且我們將更早需要額外的預加工產能。第 13 頁的圖表顯示了在這些情況下滿足需求所需的容量增加計畫。因此，2025年將是投資重大的一年。

We expect to spend about $200 million in growth capital largely in the second half of 2025 and 2026 will also most likely be a year of heavy investment with two expansion projects in parallel, as Brad mentioned. We'll have more specifics on timing, total project costs and expected returns in coming quarters. Sustaining maintenance is also increasing in 2025 with some green end modernization projects in OSB designed to improve efficiency yield and most importantly, safety.

我們預計將在 2025 年下半年投入約 2 億美元的成長資本，而正如布拉德所提到的那樣，2026 年也很可能成為大量投資的一年，同時將同時開展兩個擴建項目。我們將在未來幾季公佈更多有關時間安排、專案總成本和預期回報的具體資訊。2025 年，持續維護也將增加，OSB 中的一些綠色終端現代化專案旨在提高效率產量，最重要的是提高安全性。

So in conclusion, 2024 was a strong year. We executed our growth strategies, and that execution generated over $600 million in operating cash flow, which we invested to maintain and enhance our manufacturing capabilities, generate more demand for our products and to develop and reward our people. And we return the rest to shareholders consistent with our capital allocation strategy.

總而言之，2024 年是強勁的一年。我們執行了成長策略，並產生了超過 6 億美元的營運現金流，我們將其投資於維持和提高我們的製造能力、創造對我們產品的更多需求以及發展和獎勵我們的員工。我們將剩餘的資金按照我們的資本配置策略返還給股東。

We believe we have a strategy that works, a record of solid execution and a robust balance sheet, all of which gives us confidence that we're very well positioned to make the most of what the housing and repair and remodel markets have to offer and to invest further in more product innovation, growth, capacity expansion and shareholder returns.

我們相信，我們擁有有效的策略、穩健的執行記錄和強勁的資產負債表，所有這些都讓我們有信心，我們完全有能力充分利用住房和維修及改造市場所提供的資源，並進一步投資於更多的產品創新、成長、產能擴張和股東回報。

And with that, I'll open the call for Q&A. Operator?

現在，我將開始問答環節。操作員？

(Operator Instruction)

（操作員指令）

Michael Roxland, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Michael Roxland。

Yeah, thank you, Brad, Allan, and Aaron for taking my questions. Congrats on a strong finish to the year. I'm wondering if you could comment, obviously, Siding demand is, as you've noted, continuing to be strong. Could you comment on the [Lennar] pull-through and help us think about the cadence of that growth this year?

是的，謝謝布萊德、艾倫和亞倫回答我的問題。恭喜您今年取得了圓滿的成績。我想知道您是否可以評論一下，顯然，正如您所說，壁板需求持續強勁。您能否評論一下 [Lennar] 的成長勢頭並幫助我們思考今年的成長節奏？

Yeah. So I would say we have ramped into like full contract execution with [Lennar]. There was a ramp-up period after the deal was signed. We didn't get all the homes immediately, obviously. So we're running at full scale with them. We're in the second year that agreement. And I would say it's at or exceeded at or have exceeded our expectations as far as volume pull-through.

是的。所以我想說我們已經全面執行了合約[萊納]。協議簽署後有上升期。顯然，我們並沒有立即得到所有的房屋。因此，我們正在與他們全面合作。我們已簽署該協議兩年了。我想說，就銷量拉動而言，它達到或超越了我們的預期。

Yeah, right, would you say this -- I mean or exceeded, would you say it's more of the latter than the (inaudible) that it's performed?

是的，對，你會這麼說嗎——我的意思是或超出了，你會說它更多的是後者而不是（聽不清楚）它的表現？

Yeah, it's performed as expected. Yes, sorry for any confusion. I mean we are contracted for a certain amount of homes and we've gotten those homes. And I mean, a little extra here and there, but materially, it's with within the bounds of the agreement.

是的，表現符合預期。是的，很抱歉造成混淆。我的意思是我們已經簽訂了一定數量的房屋合約並且已經得到了這些房屋。我的意思是，這裡或那裡會有一些額外費用，但實質上是在協議範圍內。

Got it. Okay. And just second question, just given the weakness or what (inaudible) weakness in commodity OSB, have you shifted any more of the production to structural solutions, which should be -- which are more margin-accretive? And are you [handicapped] any way for making a large shift to structure solutions from commodity OSB, particularly as you look to build out builder series given tie-ins sell opportunities?

知道了。好的。第二個問題是，鑑於商品 OSB 的弱點或（聽不清楚）弱點，您是否將更多的生產轉移到結構性解決方案上，這些解決方案應該 - 哪些更能增加利潤？您是否面臨從商品 OSB 向結構解決方案進行大規模轉變的困難，特別是當您希望透過搭配銷售機會來打造建築商系列時？

Yeah. We do have to invest to continue to grow Structural Solutions from a manufacturing standpoint. Those investments tend to be small relative to sided conversion and fairly quick to execute. So there are times that we run into constraints around product availability and structural solutions, but that's very rare.

是的。從製造的角度來看，我們確實必須進行投資才能繼續發展結構解決方案。與單邊轉換相比，這些投資往往較小，且執行速度相當快。因此，有時我們會遇到產品可用性和結構解決方案的限制，但這種情況非常罕見。

So yes, you're right. As commodity pricing flattens out or is below trend lines, and we really enjoy that incremental margin we get from structural solutions and our strategy is to continue to sell -- have a strategy to pull those SKUs through distribution and capture that margin. It's been a key part of our strategy. I'm proud of where we were for 2024, and we have plans to grow on that in 2025.

是的，你是對的。隨著商品價格趨於平穩或低於趨勢線，我們真正享受從結構性解決方案中獲得的增量利潤，而我們的策略是繼續銷售——制定策略透過分銷來拉動這些 SKU 並獲取利潤。這是我們策略的關鍵部分。我為我們在 2024 年取得的成績感到自豪，我們計劃在 2025 年繼續發展。

Ketan Mamtora, BMO Capital Markets.

Ketan Mamtora，BMO 資本市場。

Good morning and thanks for taking my question. Perhaps to start with on Siding. Can you talk about sort of the EBITDA and the margin level in Siding for 2025? Clearly, the export finished business is growing quite nicely. We know that is the higher price point products should be margin enhancing. Can you talk about a couple of offsetting factors that may be keeping margins at the same level? Is it SG&A? Is it anything else?

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。或許可以從 Siding 開始。您能談談 2025 年 Siding 的 EBITDA 和利潤率水準嗎？顯然，出口成品業務成長相當良好。我們知道，價格較高的產品應該可以提高利潤率。您能否談談可能使利潤率保持在同一水平的幾個抵消因素？是銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 嗎？還有別的嗎？

Yeah. Thanks, Ketan, for the question. I'm sure that's a bit of a burning question. I do want to say -- so I'm going to be sort of trying to be a little thoughtful and careful in my response. This is the first time that we've guided to a 25% EBITDA margin for the Siding business. So I do want to sort of answer the question in reverse.

是的。謝謝 Ketan 提出的問題。我確信這是一個亟待解決的問題。我確實想說——所以我會嘗試在回答時更加深思熟慮和謹慎。這是我們首次將壁板業務的 EBITDA 利潤率設定為 25%。所以我確實想反過來回答這個問題。

The volume leverage and the price flow-through that you're used to seeing on our waterfalls that you see in the Q4 and the 2024 full year waterfall, they're expected to continue. Let's say, the pure volume conversion of revenue to EBITDA at about 40% and of course, price flows through 100%. So we get that kind of blended volume and price flow-through of about 65%.

您在我們的第四季和 2024 年全年瀑布圖中看到的成交量槓桿和價格流通預計會持續下去。假設純數量所得轉換為 EBITDA 約為 40%，當然價格流動率為 100%。因此，我們獲得了約 65% 的混合成交量和價格流通。

But -- so thank you for the question, but we're not harvesting. It's way too early in LP's growth trajectory for us to even consider that. So the costs that are included in this full year guide there's about $20 million of inflation. Now one-third of that is labor, so that's certain. The remainder is, let's call it, raw materials, and I will admit that's largely speculative.

但是—感謝您的提問，但我們沒有收穫。對於 LP 的成長軌跡而言，我們考慮這一點還為時過早。因此，本全年指南中包含的成本中，通貨膨脹率約為 2,000 萬美元。現在其中三分之一是勞動力，所以這是肯定的。剩下的，我們稱之為原料，我承認這在很大程度上只是推測。

There is about $10 million to $15 million closer to the high end of additional selling and marketing expense. And so yes, in order to generate future business as well as help secure this year's growth, we are continuing to invest in adding, selling and marketing dollars. And I've said it before on sort of broad public calls and individual discussions, we encourage this.

額外銷售和行銷費用的高端約為 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元。是的，為了創造未來的業務以及幫助確保今年的成長，我們將繼續投資於增加、銷售和行銷資金。我之前在廣泛的公開呼籲和個人討論中都說過，我們鼓勵這樣做。

We encourage discretionary selling and marketing investments in order to generate future growth. I will say that the push into repair and remodel does require, let's call it, a higher level of marketing dollars per foot of business gain. Then again, further on the discretionary side, there's roughly $5 million of, let's call it, engineering costs and staffing associated with the capacity expansions and some additional mill. Staffing are very much in the hope that the market or the market share gains give us further growth on top of the amount that we've guided to.

我們鼓勵自主銷售和行銷投資，以實現未來成長。我想說的是，推動修復和改造確實需要每平方英尺業務收益更高的行銷資金。再說，進一步從可自由支配的方面來看，大約有 500 萬美元，我們稱之為與產能擴張和一些額外工廠相關的工程成本和人員配備。員工們非常希望市場或市場佔有率的成長能讓我們實現預期目標之上的進一步成長。

So we are certainly, as always, building in the necessary discretionary spending that would overachieve. And there's about a 1.5- to 2-point margin impact from all of that stuff that I just described. What's not included that we have not assumed any material price mix favorability. It's too early to know whether or not and how expert finish will progress in the year. We're obviously optimistic, but it always feels a bit reckless to just basically take that as a given.

因此，我們當然會像往常一樣，增加必要的可自由支配的支出，以達到超額完成目標。我剛才描述的所有這些因素都會對利潤率產生大約 1.5 到 2 個百分點的影響。不包括的是，我們沒有假設任何材料價格組合有利性。現在還不知道專家完成度在今年是否會取得進展以及如何取得進展。我們顯然很樂觀，但僅僅將其視為理所當然總是感覺有點魯莽。

Given the fact that 2025 as the housing market is going to be challenging. It's a flat market in housing and probably down in R&R. So this is definitely a market share gain year and we can't always predict where and quite how when those market share gains will occur. So that's the answer.

考慮到2025年的房地產市場將面臨挑戰。房屋市場表現平淡，R&R 市場可能出現下滑。因此，這絕對是市場佔有率成長的一年，我們無法預測市佔率成長將在何時何地發生。這就是答案。

Thanks, Alan. That's very helpful and very detailed. So I appreciate it. And then switching to kind of Siding capacity expansion on Houlton Line two, can you share with us at this point kind of what type of capacity expansion you are you are planning? And what kind of total investments will be on Line two?

謝謝，艾倫。這非常有幫助並且非常詳細。所以我很感激。然後轉到霍爾頓二號線的側線產能擴建，您能否與我們分享您計劃進行哪種類型的產能擴建？二號線總投資是多少？

Yeah, Ketan, that will add about 300 million feet of volume. The Houlton expansion would be adding a parallel manufacturing line to the existing mill, so adding a forming line in a press. I don't think we've gotten into the details precisely of how expensive that's going to be. But the returns are consistent with previous expansion projects that we've had. So as we get closer to that and have more specifics about timing and things like that, we'll be able to share that.

是的，Ketan，這將增加約 3 億英尺的體積。霍爾頓的擴建將在現有工廠中增加一條平行的生產線，從而在壓力機中增加一條成型線。我認為我們還沒有詳細了解這將花費多少。但回報與我們先前的擴建項目一致。因此，當我們接近目標並掌握有關時間和類似事項的更多細節時，我們可以分享。

And Ketan, I would just say from a manufacturing standpoint, we'd be focusing that line on lap and trim capacity versus panel.

Ketan，我只想說，從製造的角度來看，我們會將重點放在整車和裝飾件產能上，而不是面板上。

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的蘇珊馬克拉里 (Susan Maklari)。

Thank you. Good morning. This is [Charles Perron] in for Susan today.

謝謝。早安.今天由 [Charles Perron] 取代 Susan 發言。

Your voice has gone down a couple of octaves, Susan.

蘇珊，你的聲音降低了幾個八度。

Yeah, no. Maybe first, I want to ask about the Siding guide and the implication for the volume outperformance versus the market, where do you see the biggest opportunity for growth and outperformance across new construction, R&R and maybe shed as we look into 2025?

是的，不。首先，我想問一下關於 Siding 指南以及其對市場銷售表現的影響，展望 2025 年，您認為新建築、R&R 和棚屋的最大增長和表現機會在哪裡？

Yeah. Good question. We are really expecting volume growth across all product offerings this year. There is -- when we compare to 2024, there probably is some recovery volume or percentage in shed. Shed was rather weak, especially first half of last year. So fortunately, that's back to normal. It's not a little strong right now.

是的。好問題。我們確實期待今年所有產品的銷售都會成長。與 2024 年相比，可能會有一些恢復量或恢復百分比。棚屋銷售相當疲軟，尤其是去年上半年。幸運的是，一切都已恢復正常。現在它已經不那麼強了。

So that to be -- if any one sector is kind of leading the good growth that shed at the moment, but we're expecting above margin growth across all sectors, retail, the builder new construction as well as repair and remodel. And we're also looking at it across all geographies. So we've got a really -- there to a good start and the visibility we have into order files to strength -- really strength everywhere.

因此，如果任何一個行業能夠引領目前的良好成長，那麼我們預計所有行業，包括零售、建築商新建築以及維修和改造，都將實現高於利潤率的成長。我們也正在從各個地區來觀察它。因此，我們確實有一個良好的開端，並且我們對訂單文件的可見性可以增強——真正在各個方面都具有優勢。

Got you. That's good color. And maybe can we talk about also the raw material and freight expectation for '25. I think on Siding, you alluded for $20 million inflation. What does it imply for price cost? And how would potential tariff impact your setting cost structure as we think about the year ahead?

明白了。這顏色真好。也許我們還可以談談 25 年的原料和貨運預期。我認為在 Siding 上你提到了 2000 萬美元的通貨膨脹。這對於價格成本意味著什麼？當我們考慮未來一年時，潛在的關稅將如何影響您的設定成本結構？

Well, I'll take the easy one first, and that will avoid the second one. The $20 million I referenced does include about $8 million or so of labor inflation. So that's as it was certain. That's already been given and gifted as it well. And the rest is raw material. And there will be -- we think we'll see increases in paper (inaudible) overbid costs, mostly offset by reductions in MDI costs. So there is some potential for raw material inflation. But I will admit that piece is broadly speculative. (inaudible) to anything in particular.

好吧，我先選擇簡單的一個，這樣就可以避免第二個了。我提到的 2000 萬美元確實包括了約 800 萬美元的勞動力通膨。所以這是肯定的。這已經是給予和贈予的了。其餘的是原料。而我們認為我們會看到紙本（聽不清楚）超額投標成本的增加，但大部分會被 MDI 成本的降低所抵消。因此原物料價格上漲存在一定的可能性。但我承認這篇文章大致上只是推測。 （聽不清楚）針對任何特定的事情。

Most of our major raw material other than wood are indexed to various derivative products that go into it. So we have to do some kind of forecasting around benzene cost, oil cost to do these analysis. So that's the analysis that we did that drove the assumptions around the price increases for raw materials other than wood. And there's no assumptions in nothing that we've talked about as far as the cost assumes any tariffs replaced on raw material flows.

除木材之外，我們大多數的主要原料都與其所含的各種衍生產品掛鉤。因此，我們必須圍繞苯成本、石油成本進行某種預測來進行這些分析。這就是我們所做的分析，它推動了有關木材以外原料價格上漲的假設。就成本假設原材料流動的任何關稅而言，我們所談論的一切都沒有任何假設。

Sean Steuart, TD Cowen.

肖恩·斯圖爾特（Sean Steuart），TD Cowen。

Thanks, good morning everyone. A couple of questions. I want to revisit tariff exposure. Can you give us a sense of your approach in engaging with customers on OSB and Siding if and when tariffs materialize, is the intention to try and pass it on and complete to fully offset the tariff in terms of pricing. And Brad, I'm just wondering if you can speak to, I guess, your perspective on demand elasticity intention in the market, the ability to pass those tariffs on and how much of a supply response might be needed for both OSB and Siding?

謝謝，大家早安。有幾個問題。我想重新討論一下關稅風險。您能否向我們介紹一下，如果關稅真的出現，您在與 OSB 和壁板客戶接觸時採取的措施，是否打算嘗試將其轉嫁出去，並在定價方面完全抵消關稅。布拉德，我只是想知道您是否可以談談您對市場需求彈性意圖的看法、轉嫁這些關稅的能力以及 OSB 和 Siding 可能需要多少供應響應？

Well, for OSB, it's a traded commodity. So there's not a direct way to pass cost into the customer in OSB other than through -- at the trading floor. And that will be -- I mean, you know how that works. So there's -- the price of OSB will be the price of OSB in the cost structure -- cost structure change to the industry that's due to tariffs will reset the cost curve and price will be where price will be.

嗯，對於 OSB 來說，它是一種交易商品。因此，除了透過交易大廳之外，沒有其他直接的方法將成本轉嫁給 OSB 的客戶。那就是——我的意思是，你知道它是如何運作的。因此，OSB 的價格將是成本結構中 OSB 的價格 - 由於關稅導致的行業成本結構變化將重置成本曲線，價格將是價格所在。

It's hard to know what the impact will be on Siding with the information that we have today. As you know, we do have two Siding mills in. In Canada, we have the ability to move volume around in our network. And there are some things we can do on supply chain to optimize the supply chain if tariffs were to change the dynamics there.

很難知道根據我們今天掌握的信息，這會對 Sideg 產生什麼影響。如您所知，我們確實有兩家壁板廠。在加拿大，我們有能力在我們的網路中移動容量。如果關稅改變了供應鏈的動態，我們可以在供應鏈上做一些事情來優化供應鏈。

And so we would -- we certainly have done scenario planning around what we would do and how we would go about doing it. But we haven't gotten to a situation yet where we've really put a number on it because of the lack of clarity. And we've had minimal -- I mean, obviously, because we're aware that the industry would be significantly impacted across the board, particularly Canadian tariffs. But we haven't gotten into any level of discussion around how that would get manifested from a Siding perspective.

因此，我們當然會針對我們要做什麼以及如何做進行情境規劃。但由於缺乏明確性，我們尚未真正給出確切的數字。而且我們受到的影響很小——我的意思是，顯然，因為我們知道整個產業將受到重大影響，尤其是加拿大的關稅。但我們還沒有從 Siding 的角度深入討論如何實現這一點。

Okay, thanks for that, Brad. And I wanted to revisit the 2025 Siding sales growth targets that you provided, the 7% to 9% sales growth. And maybe I'm paraphrasing, you tell me if I'm right, and if there's any nuance to it, but 7% to 9% reflects market share gains and still a very difficult housing environment. In a more normalized scenario where we potentially get a bit of an uplift in housing, is 10% annual sales growth at a feasible number for you guys and when you're thinking about longer-term growth whether it's Houlton two or expansion beyond that, is that the premise of the longer-term sales growth potential for that segment?

好的，謝謝你，布拉德。我想重新審視您提供的 2025 年 Siding 銷售成長目標，即 7% 至 9% 的銷售成長。也許我只是在解釋，請告訴我我是否正確，以及其中是否存在任何細微差別，但 7% 到 9% 反映了市場份額的增長和仍然非常困難的住房環境。在更正常的情況下，我們的住房可能會有所提升，10% 的年銷售額成長率對你們來說是一個可行的數字嗎？當您考慮長期成長時，無論是霍爾頓二號還是更遠的擴張，這是否是該領域長期銷售成長潛力的前提？

Sean, I would -- so certainly, single-family housing recovery, along with broader which -- I mean, to get a little more detail, which would probably drive increased R&R spend, if we got existing home sales as a part of that. Well, let me back up even more. If interest -- if mortgage rates were lower and the housing market took off across the board, we would see increases in the family construction.

肖恩，我當然會——當然，單戶住宅的復甦，以及更廣泛的復甦——我的意思是，如果我們把現有房屋銷售作為其中的一部分，這可能會推動 R&R 支出的增加。好吧，讓我再多說幾句。如果利息—如果抵押貸款利率較低且房地產市場全面起飛，我們將看到家庭建設的增加。

We would see increases in R&R spend, and that would provide a really nice tailwind that we haven't had since the COVID tailwind, which was the tailwind of all tailwinds. And that would certainly push the addressable market real-time addressable market for us up and allow us to grow at a higher growth rate than what we're seeing in a year where we're kind of expecting the market to be flat.

我們將看到 R&R 支出的增加，這將為我們帶來自 COVID 順風以來從未有過的真正順風，而 COVID 順風是所有順風中的順風。這肯定會推動我們的可尋址市場即時可尋址市場的成長，並使我們以比我們預期市場持平的一年更高的成長率成長。

I mean also in Siding probably gives you a little more pricing pressure -- pricing opportunity, which means that the revenue, you get maybe another point on the revenue as a result of that. So yes, if your question is, would a recovering and stronger housing market and R&R market allow us to go above 7% to 9% growth? Yes, it would. And both help on volume and pricing, I believe.

我的意思是，Siding 可能會給你帶來更多的定價壓力 - 定價機會，這意味著收入，你可能會因此獲得另一點收入。所以是的，如果您的問題是，復甦和強勁的房地產市場和 R&R 市場是否會讓我們的成長率超過 7% 到 9%？是的，會的。我相信，兩者都有助於提高銷售和定價。

And just to point about capacity investments. Our biggest fear in Nashville is that we would -- is being late to that party. So we've got to make sure that we have the capacity because we are convinced that it is going to happen at some point, and we need to be ready.

僅指出產能投資。我們在納許維爾最大的擔心就是我們會遲到。因此，我們必須確保我們有能力，因為我們確信這將在某個時候發生，我們需要做好準備。

Steven Ramsey, Thompson Research Group.

史蒂文·拉姆齊，湯普森研究小組。

Hi, good morning. Maybe to start with the order file in Siding be encouraging. If I recall, this is what you guys were seeing a year ago early in 2024. I'm curious what the makeup of the order file now is compared to a year ago and if it's telling you anything different compared to a year ago when you think about the portfolio between Smart Side, Builder Series and Expert Finish?

嗨，早安。也許從 Siding 中的訂單文件開始會令人鼓舞。如果我沒記錯的話，這就是你們一年前，也就是 2024 年初所看到的。我很好奇現在的訂單文件組成與一年前相比有什麼不同，當您考慮 Smart Side、Builder Series 和 Expert Finish 之間的產品組合時，它是否告訴您與一年前相比有什麼不同？

I would say the only material difference in the order file strength this quarter versus year ago was -- we have seen stronger shed polls this year than we had last year in the first quarter. Other than that, the other single-family or a big builder retail and R&R are consistent with what we were seeing in Q1 of last year. And the same thing is true geographically if that's of interest.

我想說，本季與去年同期相比，訂單文件強度的唯一實質差異是——我們看到今年的民調結果比去年第一季更為強勁。除此之外，其他單戶住宅或大型建築商零售和 R&R 與我們去年第一季看到的情況一致。如果你有興趣的話，從地理來看，同樣的事情也是正確的。

Okay. That's helpful. And then secondly, Bath margins. This has been on a positive trajectory over the last year or 2. Is there an assumption that it stays on that kind of trajectory in 2025? Or maybe another way to ask it, is it less of a margin headwind in '25 than it was last year even as it's increasing?

好的。這很有幫助。其次，巴斯的利潤率。過去一兩年來，這一情況一直呈現正面發展趨勢。是否有假設認為它在 2025 年仍會保持這樣的軌跡？或者換一種問法，2025 年利潤率的逆風是否比去年減弱，儘管它還在增加？

We basically assumed in our guide and our budgeting that we make kind of make slow progress in 2025, still improving, but we're adding capacity at a rate that will drag on that a little. But it's improving, definitely, but not quite about same amount as in 2024. That's our modeling assumption anyway.

我們在指南和預算中基本上假設，我們將在 2025 年取得緩慢的進展，仍在改進，但我們增加產能的速度會稍微拖累這一點。但確實在改善，但不會與 2024 年的情況完全相同。無論如何，這是我們的建模假設。

Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners.

馬克‧溫特勞布 (Mark Weintraub)，海港研究夥伴。

Thank you. First, Alan, just one point of clarification. So when you were talking on the Siding margin bridge, you mentioned price mix flattish. Was that just mix -- are you still -- should we -- are we still building like 3% on price from list price adjustments?

謝謝。首先，艾倫，我只想澄清一點。因此，當您談論壁板邊際橋時，您提到價格組合平穩。那隻是混合嗎 - 您仍然 - 我們應該 - 我們是否仍然根據標價調整將價格提高 3% 左右？

Yes, yes, yes. What I meant was that this year, we enjoyed something closer to 6%. I don't model that additional mix benefit. So yes, the underlying price increase is exactly that. Yes.

是的，是的，是的。我的意思是，今年我們的成長率接近 6%。我沒有模擬這種額外的混合效益。是的，根本的價格上漲確實如此。是的。

Got you. So we do get that, let's say, $45 million or something.

明白了。所以我們確實得到了，比如說 4500 萬美元左右。

Yes.

是的。

And then second, you spoke on Siding how you've been driving the market share gains through innovation and demand creation efforts. And last year, we had Lennar, [Home Depot], you had the smooth side introduction, although maybe that fills into this year more. Maybe can you talk a little bit more about -- more specifically what some of the items that are going to help drive it this year will be that are perhaps new and different?

其次，您在 Siding 上談到如何透過創新和需求創造努力來推動市場份額的成長。去年，我們有 Lennar、[Home Depot]，你們進行了順利的介紹，儘管今年可能更多地涉及這些方面。也許您能否再多談一點——更具體地說，今年有哪些新的和不同的舉措將有助於推動這一進程？

Well, we would invite anybody to come by our booth in Las Vegas next week and take a look at the new products that we've launched and talked about but also some new things that we have on board things around coloring for our pre-finish, some really interesting product expansion there.

好吧，我們邀請任何人下週來拉斯維加斯參觀我們的展位，看看我們推出和討論的新產品，以及我們在預完成著色方面的一些新事物，一些非常有趣的產品擴展。

Obviously, to your point, having the full portfolio of smooth in market all of this year, including January is a nice add compared to last year at this time. So innovation has been a key to all the growth we've gotten particularly after we've gotten come off allocation. Some of that work was done before COVID, but the Builder series and Expert Finish growth, as we've talked about, market has been phenomenal.

顯然，正如您所說，與去年同期相比，今年全年（包括一月份）市場的整體表現都很平穩，這是一個不錯的補充。因此，創新是我們實現所有成長的關鍵，特別是在我們擺脫分配之後。其中一些工作是在 COVID 之前完成的，但正如我們所討論的，Builder 系列和 Expert Finish 市場的成長非常驚人。

So we -- certainly innovation will continue to play a big part in our growth story because that increases our addressable market with customers that we have. The easiest customer [sale]. And then as far as expanding customers, we are continuing to make inroads around builders, both large, medium-sized and small and then on the R&R side, that's a contractor play. And the number is how many loyal contractors do you have pushing and installing your product, and that's a big part of the marketing spend increase that Alan talked about is in support of that initiative.

因此，創新無疑將繼續在我們的成長故事中發揮重要作用，因為這將擴大我們現有的客戶目標市場。最容易的顧客[銷售]。就擴大客戶而言，我們將繼續向大型、中型和小型建築商發起進攻，然後在 R&R 方面，這是一個承包商的行動。這個數字就是有多少忠實的承包商在推銷和安裝你的產品，而這正是艾倫所說的增加行銷支出的很大一部分，是為了支持這項舉措。

That's just a steady constant execution play that we'll never end. I mean there's a lot of site contractors in North America, and we are selling to rather small percentage of them. And so the opportunity there is huge and it's just an annual localized execution that we're encouraged by the progress that we've made. I'm encouraged about what we've learned about how to do that.

這只是一個我們永遠不會結束的穩定而持續的執行過程。我的意思是北美有很多現場承包商，而我們只向其中一小一部分人銷售產品。因此，那裡的機會是巨大的，這只是每年一次的本地化執行，我們對所取得的進展感到鼓舞。對於我們學到的如何做到這一點，我感到非常鼓舞。

And that's given us a lot of confidence that we'll be able to continue to grow as we gain that expertise, round out the portfolio of products in the case of repair and the model, continue to strengthen distribution and create a recognizable brand that's beautiful and works well and customers want and contractors want to install.

這給了我們很大的信心，隨著我們獲得專業知識，我們將能夠繼續成長，完善維修和模型的產品組合，繼續加強分銷，並創建一個美觀、運作良好、客戶想要和承包商想要安裝的知名品牌。

Thank you, Brad. And then just lastly, I know you've had efforts underway to try to get a better sense of where customer inventories are two parts. One, where are you in that process? Do you feel that you now do have a much better sense of where customer inventories and Sidings tend to be or are and where are they currently?

謝謝你，布拉德。最後，我知道您一直在努力嘗試更好地了解客戶庫存的兩個部分。一、您處於這個過程的哪個階段？您是否覺得現在對客戶庫存和壁板的趨勢或現狀以及它們目前在哪裡有了更好的了解？

Yeah. So look, we'll never have perfect visibility, but we have way better visibility we've ever had. And over the last couple of years, it's gotten a lot better. And we are normal for where we would expect to be here in the middle of February, which is a little on the high side because coming into the year, distributors tend to want to build some inventory in anticipation of the spring selling season.

是的。所以，雖然我們永遠不會擁有完美的可見性，但我們已經擁有了比以往更好的可見性。在過去的幾年裡，情況已經好多了。我們預計二月中旬的庫存水準會比較正常，但略高一些，因為進入今年以來，經銷商往往希望建立一些庫存，為春季銷售季節做好準備。

And so it's there's more in the channel now than there was 30 days ago, but normal given where we are as relation in relationship to the home building season and the busy season for -- are on our contractors being able to get back outside and get to work. So we're pleased with where inventories are. I'm very pleased with the way we were able to manage that with the cooperation of our distribution base through the price increase and across year-end as well.

因此，現在渠道中的內容比 30 天前要多，但考慮到我們與房屋建築季節和繁忙季節的關係，這很正常 - 我們的承包商能夠回到外面開始工作。因此我們對庫存狀況感到滿意。我對我們能夠在價格上漲期間以及年底前透過分銷管道的合作來管理這一問題的方式感到非常滿意。

Matthew McKellar, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的馬修麥凱勒 (Matthew McKellar)。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Just looking at your Siding capacity slide, am I correctly in thinking this implies you'll start investing in another exciting line essentially as you complete the expansion at Houlton and with that, I recognize there are lots of moving parts here, but how would you think about what the trough for Siding margins looks like as you work through this next capacity cycle?

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。僅查看您的 Siding 容量幻燈片，我是否正確地認為這意味著您將開始投資另一條令人興奮的生產線，基本上就像您完成 Houlton 的擴建一樣，並且我認識到這裡有很多活動部件，但是您如何看待在下一個容量週期中 Siding 利潤率的低谷是什麼樣的？

I'll talk a little bit about the execution, Aaron can join in. He's part of that team and then Alan can speculate on margin with a double execution. So I've been part of Siding for 20 years or so, 25 years, is the first time if we end up doing it, which we certainly believe that's going to be required, we'll be running two parallel expansion projects, not completely overlapped. We will start Houlton first, but then move into the second one after that. And it's going to be pretty intense.

我會稍微談論一下執行情況，Aaron 可以加入。他是該團隊的一員，然後艾倫可以透過雙重執行來推測利潤。我已經在 Siding 工作了 20 年左右，25 年了，如果我們最終這樣做的話，這是第一次，我們當然相信這是必要的，我們將運行兩個並行的擴展項目，而不是完全重疊。我們將首先開始霍爾頓，然後再進入第二階段。而且將會非常激烈。

We are staffing, as Alan talked about, our engineering group, in anticipation of that. A lot of that work will be executed from -- with contract engineers, but we are increasing our in-house capability as well. And it's pretty exciting to be in a position now, given our scale where 10% growth leads to us being a kind of a continual expansion mode versus more of a batch process that we've had in the past.

正如艾倫所說的，我們正在為工程團隊配備人員，以應對這種情況。很多工作將由合約工程師來執行，但我們也在提高內部能力。考慮到我們的規模，現在處於這樣的位置是相當令人興奮的，10% 的成長率將使我們進入持續擴張模式，而不是像過去那樣採用批量處理模式。

So that provides good continuity on expertise, good continuity with vendors that are a big part of those expansions. So yes, we'll be starting Houlton and talking specifically about that soon. And then shortly after that, have a decision made on where the second or the next expansion goes. As we mentioned in the prepared comments, we have a lot of options, and we're narrowing those options today. And I'll just future tariff situation will have an impact on that decision, obviously, because we have opportunities in both or options in both Canada and in the US.

因此，這提供了專業知識的良好連續性，以及與作為這些擴展的重要組成部分的供應商的良好連續性。是的，我們將開始討論霍爾頓並很快專門討論這個問題。然後不久之後，就決定第二次或下一次擴張的方向。正如我們在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，我們有很多選擇，今天我們正在縮小這些選擇的範圍。我認為未來的關稅情況顯然會對這項決定產生影響，因為我們在加拿大和美國都有機會或選擇。

All right. Thank you, Brad. The risk we've gone out on a limb. I think we're more likely to be having when we're in the throes of these this sort of parallel expansion. Having a conversation not dissimilar to this one about margins, but I think it will be closer to why the hell (inaudible) margin is rising as opposed to why they falling? It's more likely that you might see us absorbing, again, additional -- the benefits of additional growth with the headwind that comes from margin expansion. So I would like to believe that our scale has reached a point where -- but that's sort of right in wave has a higher minimum than before.

好的。謝謝你，布拉德。我們已經冒了很大的風險。我認為，當我們處於這種平行擴張的陣痛中時，我們更有可能遇到這種情況。關於利潤率的對話與此類似，但我認為它更接近為什麼（聽不清楚）利潤率會上升而不是為什麼會下降？更有可能的是，您可能會看到我們再次吸收額外的成長帶來的好處，以及利潤率擴張帶來的逆風。因此，我想相信我們的規模已經達到了一個點——但那在某種程度上是正確的，波浪的最低值比以前更高。

Great. Thanks very much for all that color. Next one for me, just sticking with your capacity plans and taking to the investment in Green Bay. Aside from the incremental capacity shown on the slide, how should we think about other improvements you hope to drive through your investments in particular thinking about potential automation opportunities and risk cost savings?

偉大的。非常感謝所有這些顏色。對我來說，下一步就是堅持你的容量計劃並進行對綠灣的投資。除了投影片上顯示的增量容量之外，我們應該如何考慮您希望透過投資推動的其他改進，特別是考慮潛在的自動化機會和風險成本節約？

Let me start on the pre-finish as you mentioned. It's just remarkable how fast that technology is advancing look, and we started out basically doing prefinished gunk work. So there was a lot of opportunity for us to increase investment and get better throughput and automation, and we're certainly doing that in Expert Finish.

讓我從您提到的預完成部分開始。科技進步的速度真是令人驚嘆，而我們一開始基本上就是在做一些預先完成的粗糙工作。因此，我們有很多機會增加投資並獲得更好的產量和自動化，我們肯定會在 Expert Finish 中做到這一點。

And a little bit for us, it's been somewhat -- the delay maybe has been good because the technology has advanced so much that we've really been able to see significant efficiency gains as we've added capacity. So I think there's way more to come on the Expert Finish side as we continue to scale that business.

對我們來說，這有點——延遲也許是件好事，因為技術已經取得了很大進步，隨著產能的增加，我們確實能夠看到效率的顯著提高。因此，我認為，隨著我們繼續擴大業務規模，Expert Finish 方面還有很大的發展空間。

We are still relatively small in the big picture of prefinished manufacturing and every increment of capacity that we add will be significantly more efficient than our average efficiency gain. That's a little bit -- there's not quite that opportunity on the press side of the business, though we do have active projects around automation of our finishing operation, which tends to be high labor and more highly labor-intensive and in cases from a safety standpoint, more hands-on.

在預製件製造業中，我們的規模仍然相對較小，我們增加的每一個產能增量都將比我們的平均效率增益高得多。這有點——在業務的印刷方面沒有那麼多機會，儘管我們確實有一些圍繞整理操作自動化的活躍項目，但這往往需要大量勞動力，而且從安全的角度來看，需要更多的實踐操作。

That technology is advancing as well, particularly in the packaging area. And so we see opportunities there. I think those margins will be more -- maybe less obvious to see at any one period of time, but just part of an overall continuous improvement effort. And then I'll just close that by saying one of the most exciting things, though, is this second line after Houlton could give us an opportunity to -- for really the first time for us to be designing almost an entire mill footprint for Siding production versus I know with the production line that gets converted.

該技術也在不斷進步，特別是在包裝領域。因此我們看到了那裡的機會。我認為這些利潤將會更加——也許在任何時期都不太明顯，但這只是整體持續改進努力的一部分。最後，我想說的是，最令人興奮的事情之一是，霍爾頓之後的第二條生產線可以給我們一個機會——這是我們第一次真正為壁板生產設計幾乎整個工廠的佔地面積，而不是我所知道的經過轉換的生產線。

And we've Houlton Line two will have some of that element in it, but the one after that will most probably be almost like a greenfield even if it said a current location of an existing Siding mill. And so the opportunity for us to design specifically the entire footprint of the mill for Siding production versus forcing it in on an existing OSB mill is want to be more capital intensive, but the opportunity and the efficiencies that we could design in will be pretty interesting.

我們已經擁有霍爾頓二號線，其中會包含一些這樣的元素，但是之後的一條線很可能幾乎就像一片綠地，即使它是現有 Siding 工廠的當前位置。因此，我們有機會專門設計用於壁板生產的工廠的整個佔地面積，而不是將其強制納入現有的 OSB 工廠，這需要更多的資本密集型，但我們在設計中可以發揮的機會和效率將非常有趣。

So more to come as we lap that, but I do see that as an opportunity for another step change in margin, at least at that facility when it comes online at full production.

隨著我們繼續推進這一進程，未來還會有更多進展，但我確實認為這是一個進一步提高利潤率的機會，至少在該工廠全面投產後是如此。

Kurt Yinger, D.A. Davidson.

庫爾特·英格（Kurt Yinger），地方檢察官戴維森。

Great thanks and good morning everyone. I just wanted to circle back on [Lennar], and I'm curious as that business has ramped and you've executed against the agreement. If there are any -- has there been any surprises or big learnings that you can kind of take and look to leverage as you continue to pursue other larger builders in the space?

非常感謝，大家早安。我只是想回到[Lennar]的話題上，我很好奇，因為該業務已經發展壯大，而且你們已經按照協議執行了。如果有的話—在您繼續追求該領域的其他大型建築商時，有沒有什麼驚喜或重大教訓可以讓您接受並加以利用？

Well I said no, Not really any surprises. It's been executed as planned, more or less a normal course of business. And I guess the learning. I mean this is not a learning that surprised us, but what we've been good at with Lennar is making sure that their contractor base is trained up, technically able to install our Siding the first time they do it in a very efficient and a beautiful way.

嗯，我說不，真的沒有什麼驚喜。一切都按計劃進行，或多或少是正常的業務流程。我想這就是學習吧。我的意思是，這並不是一個令我們感到驚訝的學習，但我們與 Lennar 合作時擅長的是確保他們的承包商基地經過培訓，從技術上講能夠在第一次安裝我們的壁板時就以非常高效和漂亮的方式完成。

And so with the technical support that's gone in to this conversion, let's call it that for them, has been significant on our part. And we understand now that a key part of the selling process for the builder is not when the procurement battle for that business, but then it quickly becomes an execution play around educating the installer base and making sure that we have local distribution in place to serve every one of their developments.

因此，對於他們來說，我們為這次轉換提供的技術支援非常重要。我們現在明白，對於建築商來說，銷售過程的關鍵部分不是爭奪該業務的採購戰，而是迅速變成圍繞教育安裝人員群體的執行環節，並確保我們有本地分銷渠道來服務他們的每一個開發項目。

And there were cases where that was not true with some of the business that we garnered from (inaudible) dollar and other builders that we've won in. So it is an execution game once you get the agreement. And of course, [nor] was a big one for us. So the learnings there certainly will translate well into how we approach for future opportunities in that area.

但有些情況下，我們從（聽不清楚）美元和其他建築商那裡獲得的一些業務並不如此。因此，一旦達成協議，這就是一場執行遊戲。當然，這對我們來說也不是什麼大問題。因此，在那裡學到的知識肯定能夠很好地幫助我們掌握該領域未來的機會。

Is it fair to think that, I mean, given how important kind of the contractor training or technical details of installation would be that as you grow in scale and you convert some of these bigger builders, like the next conversion is a little bit easier because that contractor base is just naturally more aware of installation and whatnot?

這樣想是否公平，我的意思是，考慮到承包商培訓或安裝的技術細節有多麼重要，隨著規模的擴大和一些大型建築商的轉型，下一次轉型會變得更容易一些，因為承包商群體自然而然地對安裝等有了更多的了解？

Yeah, No doubt. The wider we cast our net in both R&R and new construction. And by the way, there's installers that do both depending on where the strength of the market is locally. Every contractor we get, we had the opportunity to train up as a contractor now knows how to install our product. And we believe and have evidence that they become advocates for our product because of the ease of installation. And so there's a stickiness there.

是的，毫無疑問。我們在 R&R 和新建築領域的覆蓋範圍更廣。順便說一句，安裝人員會根據當地市場的實力來做這兩件事。我們招募的每一位承包商，我們都有機會接受培訓，因為承包商現在知道如何安裝我們的產品。我們相信並且有證據表明，他們之所以成為我們產品的擁護者，是因為我們的產品安裝簡單。因此存在一種黏性。

And then that also translates into -- this has been historic for us. But as we grow the business, both R&R and new construction and open up new distribution, the channel makes money off our product. And so that creates some loyalty and we're going to sell what the contractor wants, but it does strengthen our overall effort beyond just the framework work of that one deal in the case of the builder or that one contractor that you convert on the R&R side.

這也意味著──這對我們來說是歷史性的。但隨著我們業務的成長，包括 R&R 和新建築以及開闢新的分銷管道，通路可以透過我們的產品賺錢。這樣就創造了一些忠誠度，我們將出售承包商想要的東西，但它確實加強了我們的整體努力，而不僅僅是建築商或在 R&R 方面轉換的那個承包商的那筆交易的框架工作。

So I mean, I mentioned building scale for Expert Finish, but we're also building scale with distribution and the contractor base is probably more valuable than the scale we build on the operations side.

所以我的意思是，我提到了為 Expert Finish 建立規模，但我們也在透過分銷建立規模，承包商基礎可能比我們在營運方面建立的規模更有價值。

George Staphos, Bank of America Securities.

喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)，美國銀行證券公司。

Thanks very much. Hi everyone, good morning. Thanks for the details. Given the success with Smart Side, it doesn't sound like you need to make any changes, but does there come a time in the horizon where the marketing advertising maybe needs to change or change because of the scale and the acceptance of the product, recognizing it's right now much more of a technical sale you're working on the installer and that's been working just fine. But does national advertising or something like that ever come into play at this -- in the next 2- to 3-years?

非常感謝。大家好，早安。謝謝你的詳細資料。鑑於 Smart Side 的成功，聽起來您不需要做任何改變，但是，未來是否會出現營銷廣告需要改變的情況，或者由於產品的規模和接受度而改變的情況，要認識到現在更多的是技術銷售，您正在與安裝人員合作，而且效果很好。但是，在未來 2 到 3 年內，全國性廣告或類似廣告是否會發揮作用？

Yeah. I would say, George, for the next 2- to 3-years, what's been working for us and what we're increasing our investment in is having boots on the ground with -- on our sales force, so being -- having folks selling, actively selling our product every day and supporting that for the technical sales discussion which I won't repeat.

是的。喬治，我想說，在接下來的 2 到 3 年裡，對我們有利的以及我們正在增加投資的就是在我們的銷售隊伍中建立實地團隊，讓人們每天積極地銷售我們的產品，並支持技術銷售討論，我不會重複。

And then from an R&R standpoint, where we've had success is really more on focused local markets where we've gone into areas and where we do consumer advertising but at a local level in the local basis using local media. And then we're doing that in places where we have distribution, we have contractors that are on board.

然後從 R&R 的角度來看，我們之所以取得成功，實際上更多的是集中在本地市場，我們進入了這些地區，並在當地使用當地媒體進行消費者廣告。然後我們在有分銷的地方進行這項工作，我們有承包商參與其中。

And then we follow that groundwork, let's say, that foundation with focused local marketing, we're seeing really, really good results. And so I'm -- the markets change, over the years, my opinions have changed, but I do think that this is more of a local selling, but there's more value, more return on local selling, local brand awareness than there is on national programs.

然後我們遵循這個基礎，比如說，在這個基礎上進行有針對性的本地行銷，我們看到了非常非常好的結果。所以我認為——市場在變化，這些年來，我的觀點也發生了變化，但我確實認為這更多的是一種本地銷售，但與全國性計劃相比，本地銷售和本地品牌知名度更有價值、回報更高。

That's my personal view. But -- and it can be changed with evidence otherwise we could accelerate growth with more of a national branding opportunity. But I like what we're doing locally, and it's really been something that we've seen the results of as we executed that.

這是我的個人觀點。但是——它可以用證據來改變，否則我們可以利用更多的國家品牌機會來加速成長。但我喜歡我們在當地所做的事情，而且我們在執行過程中確實看到了成果。

And it's working. And at the same time, you have to stage it with your ability to produce and meet the demand. So no, I mean, that all makes sense. Yes, exactly. I'm sorry, Alan, is that -- do you have a comment there?

並且它正在發揮作用。同時，你也必須運用你的生產能力來滿足需求。所以不，我的意思是，這一切都是有道理的。是的，確實如此。抱歉，艾倫，你有什麼評論嗎？

No, I'm agreeing with you. Yeah.

不，我同意你的看法。是的。

Yeah. Sounds good. In terms of the next line, what are the lead times such that if you're going to be producing around 2029, you need to actually start to have the orders in place to the equipment dealers? And what kind of inflation maybe or maybe not, are you seeing in terms of press capacity versus what we've seen in the past per 1,000 square feet?

是的。聽起來不錯。就下一條生產線而言，如果您要在 2029 年左右開始生產，那麼交貨時間有多長？您實際上需要開始向設備經銷商下訂單嗎？與過去每 1,000 平方英尺的印刷產能相比，您是否看到了什麼樣的通貨膨脹？

Yeah. So let me just kind of give comment on where we're at and then Alan, Aaron comment kind of on what we're seeing far down the road. But we've started securing pieces and parts of what we need to do for both Houlton Line one and actually for equipment or orders that we could fit that we could place at our location agnostic, that has begun.

是的。因此，請允許我簡單評論我們目前所處的階段，然後艾倫和亞倫可以評論一下我們對未來的看法。但我們已經開始確保我們需要為霍爾頓一號線以及實際上我們可以安裝的設備或訂單做好各部分工作，這些工作和訂單我們可以放置在我們的位置，這項工作已經開始。

We've gotten preliminary approval -- we've got approval from the Board for Houlton, the preliminary approval from the Board to start the pre-buys, let's call it, securing factory time and fabrication time or steel and in some cases, beginning the fabrication of the equipment. So that has started.

我們已經獲得了初步批准——我們已獲得董事會對霍爾頓的批准，董事會的初步批准可以開始預購，我們稱之為確保工廠時間和製造時間或鋼材，在某些情況下，開始製造設備。那麼一切已經開始了。

The inflationary impact has been significant over the past couple of mill conversions, Houlton, Sagola and now this one. We're not seeing increases in inflationary issues there other than I would say, more normal. But compared to what it costs to do these projects pre-COVID is significantly more expensive. And then I think Aaron can speak more to the specifics of where we are on the two projects and what we're seeing.

在過去的幾次工廠改造中，通貨膨脹的影響都非常顯著，例如霍爾頓工廠、薩戈拉工廠以及現在的這家工廠。除了我認為更正常的以外，我們沒有看到通貨膨脹問題的加劇。但與新冠疫情之前開展這些項目的成本相比，成本要高得多。然後我認為 Aaron 可以更詳細地談談我們在這兩個項目上的進展以及我們所看到的情況。

Yeah. Inflation is certainly a factor, but the nature of the projects are also changing. So Sagola and Houlton were conversions of existing plants. The Houlton Line two is an expansion. So we're not converting a press, we're actually adding a (inaudible).

是的。通貨膨脹當然是一個因素，但專案的性質也在改變。因此，Sagola 和 Houlton 都是現有工廠改建的。霍爾頓二號線是一條擴建路線。所以我們不是在改造印刷機，而是在增加（聽不清楚）。

So the nature of the products also, the nature of the projects themselves can drive some changes in the total cost. Fortunately, the other thing that's inflating is Siding price. So the cost of the projects go up, but the returns stay very healthy because we've got pricing power for the specialized product that we're producing at those mills.

因此，產品的性質、專案本身的性質也會導致總成本的變化。幸運的是，另一個正在上漲的價格是壁板價格。因此，專案成本雖然上升了，但回報仍然非常可觀，因為我們對這些工廠生產的專用產品擁有定價權。

In terms of timing, as Brad said, some of the items are longer lead time and site agnostic. And so it makes sense to secure that capacity now because there's not a huge amount of production capacity for some of these specialized pieces of equipment. And we're pretty confident that if we continue to grow with the historical volume CAGR that we've seen over the past several years that we'll have capacity ready in time that we minimize the risk of another extended period of a managed order file.

就時間安排而言，正如布拉德所說，有些項目的交貨時間較長，與地點無關。因此，現在確保產能是有意義的，因為某些專用設備的生產能力並不大。我們非常有信心，如果我們繼續按照過去幾年的歷史複合年增長率成長，我們將及時準備好產能，從而最大限度地降低再次延長管理訂單文件期限的風險。

Understood. My two last questions, and then I'll turn it over. I wouldn't expect it would be a factor, you didn't really call it out, but with shed growing a little bit more quickly this year, is that any kind of impact on the margin trend -- is it -- would it maybe take a few basis points off of margin because of mix? And then in terms of maintenance, can you remind me, are there any specific cadence factors we should be considering as we're modeling out the quarters?

明白了。我的最後兩個問題，然後我再討論。我不認為這會是一個因素，你並沒有真正提到這一點，但是今年棚屋的增長速度有點快，這對利潤趨勢有什麼影響嗎 - 它會不會因為混合而降低幾個基點的利潤率？然後就維護而言，您能否提醒我，在對季度進行建模時，我們是否應該考慮任何特定的節奏因素？

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Yes. On the shed, it would be -- that tends to be lower than average price but not lower than average margin. So it's not a margin hit, but we'd see a pricing hit. As always, Q4 will be the heaviest in terms of maintenance projects and spending.

是的。在棚子裡，它會——這往往低於平均價格，但不會低於平均利潤。因此，這不會對利潤造成影響，但會對價格帶來影響。像往常一樣，第四季將是維護項目和支出最繁重的季度。

Yeah. And we've got a few projects here that are maybe a little larger than normal, but they're in the OSB business, not the Siding business. So you won't see a large maintenance projects being a source of perturbation in the Siding margin this year. Yeah, knock on wood.

是的。我們這裡有幾個項目可能比平常大一點，但它們屬於 OSB 業務，而不是 Siding 業務。因此，今年您不會看到大型維護項目成為 Siding 利潤率的擾動源。是的，敲敲木頭。

Thank you. And I'm now showing no further questions. I would now like to turn the conference back to Aaron for closing remarks.

謝謝。我現在沒有其他問題了。現在我想請 Aaron 致結詞。

Okay. Thank you, everyone, for joining us. With no further questions, we'll end the call there. Stay safe, and come and see us next week in Vegas and see some of the new products that we were talking about driving our growth in 2025.

好的。謝謝大家加入我們。如果沒有其他問題，我們就結束通話。注意安全，下週來拉斯維加斯看我們，看看我們談論的推動 2025 年增長的一些新產品。

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。