Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Q4 2023 Louisiana-Pacific Corporation Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Aaron Howald, Vice President, President, Investor Relations and Business Development. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加路易斯安那太平洋公司 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人，副總裁兼投資者關係和業務發展總裁 Aaron Howald。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us to discuss LP's results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2023. My name is Aaron Howald, and I am LP's Vice President of Investor Relations and Business Development. With me this morning are Brad Southern, LP's Chief Executive Officer; and Alan Haughie, LP's Chief Financial Officer. During this morning's call, we will refer to a presentation that has been posted to LP's IR webpage, which is investor.lpcorp.com. Our 8-K filing, press release and other materials detailing LP's strategy and sustainable business model are also available there.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。感謝您與我們一起討論 LP 2023 年第四季和全年的業績。我叫 Aaron Howald，是 LP 負責投資者關係和業務發展的副總裁。今天早上和我在一起的是 LP 執行長 Brad Southern；和 LP 財務長 Alan Haughie。在今天早上的電話會議中，我們將參考已發佈在 LP IR 網頁（investor.lpcorp.com）上的簡報。我們也提供 8-K 文件、新聞稿和其他詳細介紹 LP 策略和永續商業模式的資料。

As usual, today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial metrics, as detailed on Slides 2 and 3 of the earnings presentation. The appendix of the presentation also contains reconciliations that are further supplemented by this morning's 8-K filing. Rather than reading those materials, I incorporate them herein by reference.

與往常一樣，今天的討論將包含前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 財務指標，詳見收益簡報的幻燈片 2 和 3。簡報的附錄還包含今天早上的 8-K 歸檔進一步補充的調節結果。我沒有閱讀這些資料，而是透過引用將它們納入本文。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Brad.

這樣，我會將電話轉給布拉德。

Thanks, Aaron, and thank you all for joining us to discuss LP's results for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2023. 2023 ended much better than it began for LP in the markets we serve. In the fourth quarter, Siding achieved its highest EBITDA margin of the year. I'm pleased to share that Siding is back on a growth footing having returned to normal inventory and order flows after a destocking cycle in the first half of last year. We are well positioned to gain share in R&R and with homebuilders.

謝謝亞倫，也感謝大家與我們一起討論 LP 2023 年第四季和全年的業績。在我們所服務的市場中，2023 年 LP 的業績比年初好得多。第四季度，賽丁實現了年內最高的 EBITDA 利潤率。我很高興地告訴大家，在去年上半年的去庫存週期之後，賽丁已恢復正常的庫存和訂單流，重新回到了成長的基礎上。我們處於有利位置，可以在 R&R 以及住宅建築商中獲得份額。

Commodity OSB prices fell early in Q4, but rebounded later in the quarter. These factors, along with strong price realization and efficient operations, contributed to an EBITDA result meaningfully above our guided range.

大宗定向刨花板價格在第四季初下跌，但在本季後期反彈。這些因素，加上強勁的價格實現和高效的運營，使得 EBITDA 業績顯著高於我們的指導範圍。

Page 5 of the presentation summarizes some of our results for the quarter and year. LP generated $658 million in sales and $129 million in EBITDA in Q4, bringing the full year total to $2.6 billion and $478 million, respectively. This translated into $0.71 of earnings per share in Q4 and $3.22 for the full year. The full year comparisons are negative, largely due to normalized OSB prices, but LP's businesses demonstrated exceptional management of elements within our control.

簡報的第 5 頁總結了我們本季和年度的一些結果。 LP 第四季的銷售額為 6.58 億美元，EBITDA 為 1.29 億美元，使全年總額分別達到 26 億美元和 4.78 億美元。這意味著第四季度每股收益為 0.71 美元，全年每股收益為 3.22 美元。全年比較結果為負，主要是由於定向刨花板價格正常化，但 LP 的業務在我們控制範圍內表現出了卓越的管理能力。

2023 was a year of heavy investment in capacity to enable growth in siding and structural solutions. LP invested $300 million in capital in 2023 with the largest projects being the conversion of our mill in Sagola, Michigan, to SmartSide from OSB and the construction of our newest ExpertFinish facility in Bath, New York. These projects were completed safely and efficiently and both facilities are fully up and running. LP also completed the strategic acquisition of a mill in Wawa, Ontario which expands our portfolio of future Siding conversions.

2023 年是對產能進行大量投資的一年，以實現壁板和結構解決方案的成長。 LP 將於 2023 年投資 3 億美元，其中最大的項目是將我們位於密西根州薩戈拉的工廠從 OSB 改造為 SmartSide，以及在紐約巴斯建造我們最新的 ExpertFinish 工廠。這些項目安全且有效率地完成，兩個設施均已全面投入運作。 LP 也完成了對安大略省 Wawa 一家工廠的策略性收購，擴大了我們未來的壁板改造產品組合。

Alan will offer more details on capital allocation but I will summarize by saying that even after another year of significant investment in SmartSide and ExpertFinish capacity, the Wawa acquisition and $69 million return to shareholders via dividends, LP ended 2023 with $222 million in cash on hand and over $770 million in liquidity. Like LP results, the new residential construction markets we serve saw a meaningful recovery in the second half of 2023 after starting the year notably weaker. Affordability challenges persist, but interest rates have fallen over 100 basis points from their peak in Q4, contributing to improved optimism about single-family housing starts.

艾倫將提供有關資本配置的更多細節，但我總結一下，即使在對SmartSide 和ExpertFinish 產能進行了另一年的重大投資、收購Wawa 以及透過股息向股東回報6,900 萬美元之後，LP 截至2023 年仍持有 2.22 億美元的現金以及超過 7.7 億美元的流動資金。與 LP 的結果一樣，我們服務的新住宅建築市場在年初明顯疲軟後，在 2023 年下半年出現了有意義的復甦。負擔能力挑戰依然存在，但利率已較第四季度的峰值下降了 100 個基點以上，這有助於改善人們對單戶住房開工的樂觀情緒。

The Repair and Remodel sector remains softer than new construction, but lower rates and better affordability may encourage more sales of existing homes or offer homeowners the interest rate clarity needed to take on larger home improvement projects. The current consensus for total housing starts is about flat to last year at a bit below $1.4 million, but many forecasters expect a higher single-family mix. Compared to the consensus a year ago, we are cautiously optimistic that this improving outlook will translate into a stronger market for LP in 2024.

維修和改造行業仍然比新建建築疲軟，但較低的利率和更好的負擔能力可能會鼓勵更多的現有房屋銷售，或為房主提供進行更大的房屋裝修項目所需的利率清晰度。目前新屋開工總額的共識與去年持平，略低於 140 萬美元，但許多預測者預計單戶住宅結構會更高。與一年前的共識相比，我們謹慎樂觀地認為，這種改善的前景將轉化為 2024 年 LP 市場的強勁表現。

Regardless of the near-term market, I'm very confident LP's strategy positions us well with a strong portfolio of products and a long runway for profitable growth. The durability, beauty and performance of LP's products solve problems for builders, contractors and homeowners. We are investing in new capacity and new process technologies. This improves our productivity, accelerates product innovation and enhances our margins. We operate our capacity with discipline and utility whatever the market brings, and we are prudent stewards of our capital investing strategically in growth and innovation while returning cash to shareholders.

無論近期市場如何，我都非常有信心 LP 的策略為我們提供了強大的產品組合和長遠的獲利成長空間。 LP 產品的耐用性、美觀性和性能為建築商、承包商和房主解決了問題。我們正在投資新產能和新製程技術。這提高了我們的生產力，加速了產品創新並提高了我們的利潤。無論市場如何變化，我們都以紀律和效用來運作我們的能力，我們是謹慎的資本管理者，策略性地投資於成長和創新，同時向股東返還現金。

None of this happens without the dedication of LP's people. Our operations teams delivered significantly better efficiency in sector performance in 2023, ending the year with a world-class total incident rate of 0.5. The single injury is too many, but I'm incredibly proud of our operations team for this performance. We will never stop working to ensure a safe work environment for everyone at LP. I also want to acknowledge and thank LP les and marketing teams for navigating the difficult process of transitioning off a managed order file.

這一切的發生，離不開LP員工的奉獻。 2023 年，我們的營運團隊在部門績效方面顯著提高了效率，年底總事故率為 0.5，處於世界一流水平。單次受傷人數太多了，但我對我們營運團隊的表現感到非常自豪。我們將永遠不會停止努力，確保 LP 的每個人都有一個安全的工作環境。我還要感謝 LP 文件和行銷團隊，感謝他們完成了從託管訂單文件過渡的艱難過程。

As a result of our highly talented teams and the great culture we've built LP was recognized in 2023 by Newsweek nationally and in Nashville by our local paper, The Tennessean as a great place to work. Thank you to every LP team member for your contributions in 2023.

憑藉我們才華橫溢的團隊和我們所建立的偉大文化，LP 於 2023 年被全國《新聞周刊》和納什維爾當地報紙《田納西州報》認可為理想的工作場所。感謝每位 LP 團隊成員在 2023 年所做的貢獻。

And with that, Alan will share more details about LP's financial performance in the quarter as well as our outlook for Q1 and 2024.

隨後，艾倫將分享更多有關 LP 本季財務業績的細節以及我們對第一季和 2024 年的展望。

Thanks, Brad. I'll briefly review the results for the Siding and the OSB businesses for the fourth quarter and full year and then offer guidance for EBITDA and capital expenditures.

謝謝，布拉德。我將簡要回顧第四季度和全年壁板和 OSB 業務的業績，然後提供 EBITDA 和資本支出的指導。

Slide 6 shows Siding's quarterly results. Jumping 12 months back in time, the fourth quarter of 2022 was the last quarter in which Siding was on a managed order file. And as such, it represents rather a difficult comp. The biggest difference in the year-over-year waterfall is, therefore, the 15% drop in volume, a corresponding $55 million drop in revenue and a $26 million drop in EBITDA. On the plus side, Bath and Sagola are now fully up and running, resulting in lower conversion and ramp-up costs. This, combined with continued improvements in raw material costs, produced a $13 million EBITDA tailwind.

幻燈片 6 顯示了 Siding 的季度業績。時間回溯 12 個月，2022 年第四季是 Siding 進入託管訂單檔案的最後一個季度。因此，它代表著相當困難的比賽。因此，同比瀑布的最大差異是銷量下降了 15%，相應的收入下降了 5,500 萬美元，EBITDA 下降了 2,600 萬美元。從好的方面來看，巴斯和薩戈拉現在已全面啟動並運行，從而降低了轉換和提升成本。再加上原料成本的持續改善，帶來了 1,300 萬美元的 EBITDA 收益。

Net of $6 million in inventory absorption and other stuff, the Siding business finished the quarter with $72 million of EBITDA. The EBITDA margin of 22% was the highest of the year, which reinforces our confidence in Siding's long-term 25% EBITDA margin target. Now I won't belabor the full year waterfall on Slide 7, given that we've discussed the most important elements in prior quarters. However, it is perhaps useful to recap that the transition from a managed order file made for a difficult year with respect to volume, particularly in the first 6 months, while inventories normalized. Nonetheless, the full year EBITDA of $269 million represents a robust EBITDA margin of 20%, particularly so in light of the carrying cost of new capacity. Capacity, which I would like to stress, provides a long runway for growth with meaningfully lower future CapEx, at least until customer demand necessitates further investments.

扣除 600 萬美元的庫存吸收和其他費用後，Siding 業務本季的 EBITDA 為 7,200 萬美元。 22%的EBITDA利潤率為年內最高，這增強了我們對賽丁25%的長期EBITDA利潤率目標的信心。鑑於我們已經在前幾個季度討論了最重要的元素，現在我不會在幻燈片 7 上詳細闡述全年瀑布。然而，回顧一下管理訂單文件的轉變可能是有用的，這一年在數量方面是困難的一年，特別是在前 6 個月，而庫存正常化。儘管如此，全年 2.69 億美元的 EBITDA 意味著 20% 的強勁 EBITDA 利潤率，特別是考慮到新產能的持有成本。我想強調的是，產能為成長提供了一條漫長的道路，並且未來的資本支出顯著降低，至少在客戶需求需要進一步投資之前是如此。

Slide 8 covers the fourth quarter for OSB. While our prices fell steeply during the shoulders of the third and fourth quarters, they subsequently recovered and ended the year higher than the prior year, adding about $17 million to year-over-year EBITDA. Volumes were lower in part because of the Sagola conversion, but this was partially offset by a significant improvement in operating efficiency. Structural Solutions accounted for 52% of OSB volume in the quarter with value-added products producing $20 million of incremental EBITDA on $39 million of incremental revenue. Lower raw material, Mill and SG&A costs added a $30 million tailwind, resulting in a very respectable $59 million of EBITDA in the quarter.

投影片 8 介紹了 OSB 第四季的情況。雖然我們的價格在第三季和第四季大幅下跌，但隨後有所回升，年終價格高於上年，EBITDA 年比增加約 1700 萬美元。銷售量下降的部分原因是薩古拉轉換，但這部分被營運效率的顯著提高所抵消。結構解決方案佔本季 OSB 銷售的 52%，增值產品在增量收入 3,900 萬美元的基礎上產生了 2,000 萬美元的增量 EBITDA。較低的原材料、工廠和 SG&A 成本增加了 3,000 萬美元的推動力，導致本季 EBITDA 達到非常可觀的 5,900 萬美元。

OSB's full year results on Slide 9 are dominated by price normalization, but other than that, the year can be summarized as one of lower volume, partially offset by higher OEE lower raw material costs and lower overhead costs given the transfer of Sagola to the Siding business. Taken as a whole, despite volatility quarter-to-quarter, 2023 was slightly better than the historical cycle average for the OSB business, which shows the power of LP's OSB strategy: Improved efficiency in operations, disciplined capacity management and the value generated by the consistent incremental uplift from the Structural Solutions portfolio.

幻燈片9 上的OSB 全年業績主要由價格正常化主導，但除此之外，這一年可以概括為銷量較低的一年，部分被較高的OEE、較低的原材料成本和較低的間接費用所抵消，因為Sagola 轉移到了側板商業。總體而言，儘管存在季度波動，2023 年 OSB 業務仍略好於歷史週期平均水平，這顯示了 LP 的 OSB 策略的力量：提高營運效率、嚴格的產能管理以及 OSB 所產生的價值。結構解決方案組合的持續增量提升。

Other than the acquisition of Wawa, cash flows for the quarter and year was straightforward, as shown on Slide 10. For the year, LP earned $478 million of EBITDA, paid $65 million in cash taxes and built $93 million of working capital, resulting in $316 million of operating cash flow. After investing $300 million in CapEx, paying $80 million to acquire the Wawa mill and returning $69 million to shareholders via dividends, the net outflow of $161 million left us with $222 million in cash.

除了收購Wawa 之外，該季度和年度的現金流量很簡單，如幻燈片10 所示。這一年，LP 賺取了4.78 億美元的EBITDA，繳納了6,500 萬美元的現金稅，並建立了9,300萬美元的營運資金，從而產生了營運現金流 3.16 億美元。在資本支出投資 3 億美元、支付 8,000 萬美元收購 Wawa 工廠並透過股息向股東返還 6,900 萬美元之後，1.61 億美元的淨流出給我們留下了 2.22 億美元的現金。

Now before I transition to guidance, let me anticipate and answer one question. LP's capital allocation strategy is unchanged. We will earn cash, invest in growth and return cash to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases in that order. LP did not repurchase any shares in 2023, but our motivation to do so is undiminished, and we retain a $200 million authorization from the Board. We will resume share repurchases when our cash flows and cash balances warrant.

現在，在我轉向指導之前，讓我預測並回答一個問題。 LP的資本配置策略不變。我們將賺取現金，投資於成長，並透過股利和股票回購的順序向股東返還現金。 LP在2023年沒有回購任何股票，但我們這樣做的動力不減，並且我們保留了董事會2億美元的授權。當我們的現金流量和現金餘額有保證時，我們將恢復股票回購。

2024 should be a year of growth and meaningfully lower CapEx in Siding. So [all else equal], share repurchases are very much back on the table, which brings us to guidance on Slide 11. With the inventory destocking behind us and Siding back on our growth footing, as well as more historically normal OSB prices. We have improved visibility to offer a full year outlook for both businesses if you'll forgive some very obvious caveats.

2024 年應該是 Siding 成長的一年，資本支出將大幅降低。因此，[其他條件相同]，股票回購在很大程度上重新回到桌面上，這給我們帶來了幻燈片11 的指導。隨著庫存去庫存的結束和我們的增長基礎的恢復，以及歷史上更正常的OSB 價格。如果您能原諒一些非常明顯的警告，我們已經提高了可見性，可以為兩家公司提供全年展望。

In Siding, we expect a year of resumed growth in a more normal seasonal order pattern consistent with what we saw in the fourth quarter and have seen so far in 2024. Revenue growth is expected to outpace both the current flat consensus for total U.S. housing starts and the forecast for single-digit declines in Repair and Remodel. We, therefore, expect revenue growth of about 8% to 10% for the full year from a combination of volume and price. And this would result in Siding revenue of, let's say, $1.45 billion, approaching 2022's record level. An EBITDA margin of around 20% and would result in full year EBITDA for Siding of between $280 million and $300 million, with reduced investments in capacity, partially offset by discretionary increases in selling and marketing.

在Siding，我們預計今年將在更正常的季節性訂單模式下恢復成長，這與我們在第四季和2024年迄今所看到的情況一致。營收成長預計將超過目前美國新屋開工總量持平的共識以及維修和改造的個位數下降預測。因此，從銷售和價格來看，我們預計全年營收將成長約 8% 至 10%。這將使 Siding 的收入達到 14.5 億美元，接近 2022 年的創紀錄水平。 EBITDA 利潤率約為 20%，在產能投資減少的情況下，Siding 的全年 EBITDA 將達到 2.8 億至 3 億美元之間，部分被銷售和行銷方面的酌情增加所抵消。

So what does this mean for the first quarter? Well, the expected return to more normal seasonal demand pattern means somewhat higher demand in the second and third quarters compared to the first and the fourth. Accordingly, first quarter sales for Siding are expected to be in the range of $340 million to $350 million, with EBITDA between $65 million and $70 million, assuming an EBITDA margin of about 20%.

那麼這對第一季意味著什麼呢？嗯，預期將恢復到更正常的季節性需求模式，這意味著與第一季和第四季相比，第二季和第三季的需求將會增加。因此，假設 EBITDA 利潤率約為 20%，Siding 第一季銷售額預計將在 3.4 億至 3.5 億美元之間，EBITDA 將在 6,500 萬至 7,000 萬美元之間。

For OSB, full year revenue guidance is impossible without a price reduction, which we won't even pretend to offer. Instead, we're going to introduce the concept of cycle average EBITDA spread. This is the EBITDA that the OSB business earns per 1,000 square feet of volume on average over the cycle. This spread accounts for variations in both selling prices and the cost of production. As demand and therefore, commodity prices fluctuate, in response, we adjust our capacity utilization, our product mix, our maintenance costs and other factors. And to illustrate how this distinction can be useful, recall that in the third quarter of 2019, the OSB business achieved breakeven EBITDA. And in the first quarter of 2023, we reported a small positive EBITDA. These were very similar outcomes, but at very different nominal selling prices and cost of manufacture.

對於 OSB 來說，如果不降價，全年收入指引是不可能的，我們甚至不會假裝提供降價。相反，我們將引入周期平均 EBITDA 利差的概念。這是 OSB 業務在整個週期內每 1,000 平方英尺體積平均賺取的 EBITDA。這種價差考慮了銷售價格和生產成本的變化。隨著需求和商品價格的波動，我們會調整產能利用率、產品結構、維護成本和其他因素。為了說明這種差異的作用，請回想一下，2019 年第三季度，OSB 業務實現了盈虧平衡 EBITDA。 2023 年第一季度，我們的 EBITDA 呈現小幅正值。這些結果非常相似，但名目售價和製造成本卻截然不同。

Now historically, LP cycle average OSB spreads have been around $60 per thousand square feet of sales volume. This is actually the trailing 10-year average for LP's OSB business, excluding the outlier years of 2021 and 2022, when the spread was actually much higher. Actual commodity price fluctuations resulted in an EBITDA range with a floor that we've demonstrated can be held above 0 when prices are low, such as in the 2 examples I just cited. And then actually, with a very high ceiling when prices rise. So if we take this concept and apply it to current conditions. I would estimate that LP's 4 billion square feet of capacity, running at about 85% average utilization at $60 per 1,000 square feet should generate about $200 million in EBITDA on a cycle average basis. And this is actually very close to the EBITDA we just generated in 2023.

從歷史上看，LP 週期平均 OSB 價差約為每千平方英尺銷售 60 美元。這實際上是 LP 定向刨花板業務的過去 10 年平均值，不包括 2021 年和 2022 年的異常年份，這兩個年份的利差實際上要高得多。實際的商品價格波動導致 EBITDA 範圍的下限我們已經證明，當價格較低時，該下限可以保持在 0 以上，例如我剛才引用的兩個例子。實際上，當價格上漲時，上限非常高。因此，如果我們採用這個概念並將其應用於當前的情況。我估計，LP 的 40 億平方英尺產能，平均利用率約為 85%，每 1,000 平方英尺 60 美元，在周期平均基礎上應產生約 2 億美元的 EBITDA。這實際上非常接近我們剛剛在 2023 年產生的 EBITDA。

To use this concept to construct the outlook for OSB, we'll start with the first quarter and build from there. For the first quarter, we expect shipment volumes to be similar to fourth quarter levels at around 770 million to 790 million square feet. So far, random length prices have averaged about $25 higher than the fourth quarter we've just reported. So under that volume assumption, if the OSB price holds, EBITDA in the first quarter should be around $65 million to $75 million. We're making no attempt to predict future OSB prices. So our full year outlook for OSB is the sum of the first quarter outlook I just gave, followed by 3 quarters of cycle average EBITDA. Adding the 2 businesses together and assuming for simplicity that LP South America's EBITDA covers corporate costs, we expect full year EBITDA of about $495 million to $525 million. with the first quarter and the $130 million to $145 million range.

為了使用這個概念來建立 OSB 的前景，我們將從第一季開始，並從那裡開始建立。我們預計第一季的出貨量將與第四季的水平相似，約為 7.7 億至 7.9 億平方英尺。到目前為止，隨機長度價格平均比我們剛剛報告的第四季度高出約 25 美元。因此，根據該產量假設，如果定向刨花板價格保持不變，第一季的 EBITDA 應在 6500 萬至 7500 萬美元左右。我們不會嘗試預測未來定向刨花板價格。因此，我們對 OSB 的全年展望是我剛剛給出的第一季展望的總和，然後是 3 個季度的週期平均 EBITDA。將這兩項業務加在一起，並為簡單起見假設 LP South America 的 EBITDA 涵蓋了公司成本，我們預計全年 EBITDA 約為 4.95 億至 5.25 億美元。第一季的營收範圍為 1.3 億至 1.45 億美元。

A quick word on Sensitivities. As we are already realizing the January price increase in Siding, the most significant sensitivity in that business is volume. Each increase or decrease in volume of 10 million square feet from this baseline would add or subtract about $4 million in EBITDA at typical incremental EBITDA margins. For OSB, Sensitivities for incremental volume and price shown in the table are based on the same utilization and EBITDA assumptions used to construct our outlook and would, of course, compound.

關於敏感性的簡短說明。由於我們已經意識到 Siding 一月份的價格上漲，因此該業務最重要的敏感性是數量。在此基準基礎上，每增加或減少 1,000 萬平方英尺的面積，以典型的增量 EBITDA 利潤率計算，將增加或減少約 400 萬美元的 EBITDA。對於 OSB，表中顯示的增量和價格的敏感度是基於用於構建我們的前景的相同利用率和 EBITDA 假設，當然會復合。

With respect to capital spending, LP invested heavily in SmartSide and ExpertFinish capacity in 2022 and 2023. As a result, we have a healthy runway of capacity ahead of us. We will continue to invest in growth this year, albeit on a smaller and more targeted scale compared to recent years. Accordingly, 2024 should see capital investments roughly $100 million lower than 2023, with sustaining maintenance comprising roughly 75% of the total.

在資本支出方面，LP 在 2022 年和 2023 年對 SmartSide 和 ExpertFinish 產能進行了大量投資。因此，我們面前有一條健康的產能跑道。今年我們將繼續對成長進行投資，儘管與近年來相比，規模較小且更有針對性。因此，2024 年的資本投資將比 2023 年減少約 1 億美元，其中持續維護約佔總額的 75%。

So in many ways, 2024 is a return to normal. Siding is growing again after something of a destocking hangover. OSB prices are currently in a historically normal range, albeit on the high side of that range. And LP's capital investment in 2024 will be nearly $100 million lower than last year, because the Sagola, Houlton and Bath projects are complete.

所以從很多方面來說，2024 年都是回歸正常的一年。經過庫存去化的影響後，壁板再次成長。 OSB 價格目前處於歷史正常範圍內，儘管處於該範圍的偏高位置。而LP 2024年的資本投資將比去年減少近1億美元，因為Sagola、Houlton和Bath計畫已經完成。

And with that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

因此，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Ketan Mamtora from BMO.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 BMO 的 Ketan Mamtora。

Alan, perhaps to start with, when I think about the 2024 Siding EBITDA guidance, can you talk about sort of at a high level, what are the sort of the key elements as we think from 2023 to 2024, given that in 2023, volume was a big drag, there was probably inefficiencies as you were working through the inventory destocking phase? And then you also have a price increase for this year. So can you talk about just sort of 3 or 4 key elements as we think about the bridge?

艾倫，也許首先，當我考慮 2024 年 Siding EBITDA 指南時，您能否從較高的層面談談我們認為 2023 年至 2024 年的關鍵要素是什麼，考慮到 2023 年的銷量是一個很大的拖累，在您進行庫存去庫存階段時可能效率低？然後今年的價格也會上漲。那麼，當我們考慮橋樑時，您能談談 3 或 4 個關鍵要素嗎？

Sure, Ketan, thanks for the question. I do want to stress that this is the most comprehensive guidance to my knowledge that the company has ever given. And one of the objectives, particularly around the 20% EBITDA margin for Siding was to actually convey a sense of comfort. If you think about the volume sensitivities, the margin is obviously heavily impacted or would -- can be heavily impacted by fluctuations in volume. And so we're confident that we're going to see a volume increase in 2024. And hence, that our EBITDA margin will benefit from that -- the presence of that volume uplift.

當然，科坦，謝謝你的提問。我確實想強調，這是據我所知，該公司提供的最全面的指導。 Siding 的目標之一，特別是圍繞 20% 的 EBITDA 利潤率，是真正傳達一種舒適感。如果考慮成交量敏感性，邊際顯然會受到成交量波動的嚴重影響，或者可能會受到成交量波動的嚴重影響。因此，我們有信心在 2024 年看到銷售成長。因此，我們的 EBITDA 利潤率將從銷售成長中受益。

On the question of volume, though, we are expecting and anticipating increases in our ExpertFinish production, which is itself right now as we grow that business, not necessarily margin accretive. It's profitable, but not to the same degree as the rest of the business, a situation which I have absolutely no doubt, we will improve as the years progress. We are also investing rather heavily in selling and marketing, certainly more heavily in 2024 than we did in 2023. And that's largely offsetting the benefits that we get from removal of the ramp-up costs that you saw in 2023.

不過，就產量問題而言，我們預期並預期我們的 ExpertFinish 產量會增加，這本身就是我們業務成長時的情況，不一定會增加利潤。它是有利可圖的，但與其他業務的程度不同，我絕對毫不懷疑這種情況，隨著時間的推移，我們會有所改善。我們也在銷售和行銷方面投入了大量資金，2024 年的投入肯定比 2023 年要多。這在很大程度上抵消了我們從 2023 年消除上升成本中獲得的收益。

And secondly, or thirdly, rather, we are actually carrying still, as you will note, in essence, one extra mill in our network. Again, this is a decision that we're making in order to make sure that we have all of our mills, let's say, agile at a depth of producing Siding product as we move ourselves from 2024 into 2025 continued future growth. And there is, of course, some labor inflation and freight inflation that we're anticipating that's by no means certain yet.

其次，或者說第三，正如您所注意到的，我們實際上在我們的網路中實際上還保留著一個額外的工廠。同樣，我們做出這項決定是為了確保我們所有的工廠，比如說，在我們從 2024 年進入 2025 年持續未來成長的過程中，能夠靈活地生產壁板產品。當然，我們預計還會出現一些勞動力通膨和貨運通膨，但目前還不確定。

So they're the factors -- basically throwing those all in the pot -- in this guidance that we're giving you. And so I was tempted to say at least 20% EBITDA margin. But occasionally, when I've said at least, we've literally blown the number out of the water, and I don't want to send any signal that I think blowing this number out of the water is on the cart. But I think 20%, given all of these investments we're making, and our confidence in the volume uplift is a very safe number.

因此，它們是我們為您提供的本指南中的因素 - 基本上將所有這些因素放在一起。所以我想說至少 20% 的 EBITDA 利潤率。但偶爾，當我至少說過時，我們確實已經把這個數字從水中吹出來了，而且我不想發出任何信號，表明我認為把這個數字從水中吹出來是在車上。但我認為，考慮到我們正在進行的所有這些投資，以及我們對銷售提升的信心，20% 是一個非常安全的數字。

Understood. No, that's very helpful context. And one more on Siding. Can you talk maybe perhaps Brad, in terms of how the Sheds business is performing? I know in the middle of the year, we went through this pretty big destocking phase there. What are you seeing in Sheds demand?

明白了。不，這是非常有幫助的背景。還有一個關於壁板的。您能談談布拉德（Brad）的棚屋業務表現如何嗎？我知道在今年年中，我們經歷了相當大的去庫存階段。您認為棚屋的需求是什麼？

Yes. So Ketan, we had a good recovery in Shed demand second half of last year. So certainly, Q4 was okay to good. Right now in our order file, it's probably the weakest sector that we have. I think there was a little bit of inventory build in that shed serving channel but it's okay, but right now, it's the weakest part of our order file. But we do not anticipate that carrying out throughout the year. It's just kind of what's happening right now.

是的。因此，Ketan，我們去年下半年的棚屋需求恢復良好。所以當然，第四季的表現還不錯。目前在我們的訂單文件中，它可能是我們最薄弱的部分。我認為該棚屋服務管道中有一點庫存，但沒關係，但現在，這是我們訂單文件中最薄弱的部分。但我們預計這種情況不會全年持續。這就是現在正在發生的事情。

As you are referencing, I'm sure we'd certainly experience kind of an overhang post-COVID of Shed demand being very like first half of this year. We're seeing this year being more of a normal demand pool for that sector. Again, but we did carry a little inventory -- well, the channel carried a little inventory across the year that we're working through right now. No worries there, just kind of the current situation in the market.

正如您所提到的，我確信我們肯定會經歷疫情後棚屋需求的懸而未決，就像今年上半年一樣。我們看到今年該產業的需求池更加正常。再說一遍，但我們確實有一點庫存——嗯，我們現在正在處理的全年渠道都有一點庫存。不用擔心，只是市場目前的狀況。

Our next question comes from the line of Steven Ramsey from Thompson Research Group.

我們的下一個問題來自湯普森研究小組的史蒂文拉姆齊。

Maybe to continue the Siding sales and marketing spend topic curious where that spend is focused by product set or customer type? And can you talk to how you're judging the success there, the ROI, the timing between spend to sales?

也許是為了繼續壁板銷售和行銷支出主題，好奇這些支出按產品集或客戶類型集中在哪裡？您能否談談您如何判斷那裡的成功、投資報酬率以及支出與銷售之間的時間安排？

So the 2 areas of focus, first of all, from a sales resource standpoint, is around new construction and the sales assets that are focused on that segment along with the technical support that goes into ensuring a smooth transition of the incumbent siding product on to SmartSide. So we're adding sales resources in support of that, that push in new construction. And then on the marketing side, the focus there is primarily in Repair and Remodel. That is a different sales process where contractors are actually convincing a homeowner to reside their house and then to use our product, and that requires a good bit of personalized or more consumer-oriented marketing support. And so not all of the increases is there, but certainly, the majority of the marketing spend increase is focused on our growth of Repair and Remodel.

因此，首先，從銷售資源的角度來看，兩個重點領域是圍繞新建築和專注於該細分市場的銷售資產，以及確保現有壁板產品順利過渡到的技術支援。聰明的一面。因此，我們正在增加銷售資源來支持這一點，推動新的建設。然後在行銷方面，重點主要是維修和改造。這是一個不同的銷售流程，承包商實際上是說服房主居住，然後使用我們的產品，這需要大量的個人化或更以消費者為導向的行銷支援。因此，並非所有的成長都存在，但可以肯定的是，大部分行銷支出的成長都集中在我們的維修和改造業務的成長上。

Okay. That's perfect. And then on the Siding margin outlook you have a consistent 20% on Slide 11 for both Q1 and the full year. But just going midpoint to midpoint, it looks like about 100 bps of improvement. Just curious how you think about the cadence through the year? How seasonality plays into that and volume uptake off of the higher base of production?

好的。那很完美。然後，在側板利潤率展望中，幻燈片 11 中第一季和全年的利潤率始終保持在 20%。但只要從中點到中點，看起來就有大約 100 個基點的改進。只是好奇您如何看待這一年的節奏？季節性因素如何影響較高生產基數的產量成長？

Yes. Well, the second and third quarters are obviously going to see if this plays out, higher high volumes year-over-year than first and fourth quarters, most likely. So my anticipation is that the -- if the margin peaks, it will -- well, I'm not sure. But certainly, I think third and -- second and third quarters will be healthy EBITDA margins given the extra volume.

是的。嗯，第二和第三季顯然會看到這種情況是否會發生，比第一季和第四季的銷量很可能更高。所以我的預期是——如果利潤率達到峰值，它會——嗯，我不確定。但當然，我認為考慮到額外的銷量，第三季以及第二季和第三季的 EBITDA 利潤率將是健康的。

Our next question comes from the line of George Staphos from Bank of America Securities, Inc.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行證券公司的 George Staphos。

Aaron, Alan, Brad, I had a question on Siding margin as well and sort of the investment that you're making this year on marketing and selling. Is there much of a lag between when you ultimately expect to get the volume and the investment that you need to support the volume growth that you're expecting? I said differently, should we expect the selling, general and administration, the marketing to move more or less in tandem with the incremental volume and incremental margin? That's question number one.

亞倫、艾倫、布拉德，我也有一個關於壁板利潤以及你們今年在行銷和銷售方面進行的投資的問題。您最終期望獲得銷售的時間與支持預期銷售成長所需的投資之間是否存在很大的延遲？我換句話說，我們是否應該期望銷售、一般和管理、行銷或多或少與增量和增量利潤同步進行？這是第一個問題。

Question number 2, I'll jump back in queue. Can you talk to us -- I reckon -- I think it's very difficult to project anything in OSB? What would you be looking to in terms of structural solutions as a percentage of the overall mix when we're all said and done with '24?

第 2 個問題，我會插回隊列。你能和我們談談嗎——我想——我認為在 OSB 中投影任何東西都非常困難？當我們都說完「24」時，您希望結構解決方案佔整體組合的百分比是什麼？

George, let me on these additional sales and marketing spend -- the impact by spend is not instantaneous. It's always an investment in support of our CapEx investment we've made over the last 3 or 4 years. We did consciously cut back on sales and marketing spend as we were in managed order file. Obviously, there wasn't an immediate need for demand creation and any demand that would have been created, we would have had trouble satisfying. And so we're seeing this year really is a return to the -- more in line with our prior-COVID rate plus added emphasis around the 2 segments that I mentioned before, where we have historically been underpenetrated and not had to have either the sales assets or the level of marketing spend that we anticipate to support our Repair and Remodel.

喬治，讓我談談這些額外的銷售和行銷支出——支出的影響並不是立竿見影的。這始終是支持我們過去三、四年所進行的資本支出投資的投資。我們確實有意識地削減了銷售和行銷支出，因為我們處於管理訂單文件中。顯然，並沒有立即需要創造需求，而且任何可能創造的需求，我們都很難滿足。因此，我們看到今年確實是回歸——更符合我們之前的新冠疫情發病率，並且更加強調我之前提到的兩個細分市場，在這兩個細分市場中，我們歷來滲透不足，也不必擁有我們預計支持維修和改造的銷售資產或行銷支出水準。

But I would -- from a marketing standpoint, you create -- I mean, just at a high level, you create an impression, you create some brand equity, in anticipation of that creating the demand that you feel later on. And then on the sales side, yes, some of these technical support staff that we add can have an immediate impact, but really, that's more or less helping us with volume we've already converted the more strategic sales investments, it takes a few months to hire them, a few months to train them and then a few months for them to start being effective out in the field. So I would say most of this incremental sales and marketing spend maybe other than the technical sales support is going into demand creation that we'll feel at the best case late this year, probably more into next year.

但我會——從行銷的角度來看，你創造——我的意思是，在高水準上，你創造了一種印象，你創造了一些品牌資產，預期這會創造你稍後感受到的需求。然後在銷售方面，是的，我們添加的一些技術支援人員可以產生立竿見影的影響，但實際上，這或多或少幫助我們提高了我們已經轉化為更具戰略性的銷售投資的數量，這需要有些僱用他們幾個月，培訓他們幾個月，然後讓他們開始在現場發揮作用。因此，我想說，除了技術銷售支援之外，大部分增量銷售和行銷支出可能都將用於創造需求，我們將在今年稍後感受到最好的情況，可能會持續到明年。

But bottom line, there will be a bias in terms of incremental and overall EBITDA margin. Attention to the upside as the year progresses, would be my takeaway, both because of the seasonal pickup in volume -- and then even as we get into fourth quarter, some of that investment you've already made and so you should be getting the benefit of that later in the year. Not trying to be too precise, but just conceptually, is that right? Or would you disagree with any of that?

但最重要的是，增量和整體 EBITDA 利潤率會有偏差。我的結論是，隨著時間的推移，關注上行趨勢，這既是因為銷量的季節性回升，而且即使我們進入第四季度，您已經進行了一些投資，因此您應該獲得今年晚些時候將受益於此。不想太精確，只是從概念上講，對嗎？或您不同意其中任何一個？

No, I agree with that, conceptually, yes. And then the question -- I'll -- most of the OSB question. If you want to come back to the Siding question, we certainly can. But on the Structural Solutions, mid-55% -- I mean between 50% and 60%, I think, is a realistic goal for this year. I'd love to see 55%. We do manage that for margin more so than for volume. But certainly, our strategy is to get volume growth as well. And so have it fixed -- our ability to push that volume is somewhat dependent on the current price level and our enthusiasm about margin management, but a realistic goal will probably be 53%, 54% and then upside goal maybe 55%, 56%.

不，我同意這一點，從概念上講，是的。然後是大部分 OSB 問題。如果你想回到側邊問題，我們當然可以。但就結構解決方案而言，55% 中間——我的意思是 50% 到 60% 之間，我認為是今年的現實目標。我很想看到 55%。我們確實是為了利潤而不是數量來管理這一點。但當然，我們的策略也是實現銷售成長。因此，我們推動這項交易量的能力在某種程度上取決於當前的物價水準和我們對利潤管理的熱情，但現實的目標可能是53%、54%，然後上行目標可能是55%、56 % 。

Our next question comes from the line of Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Susan Maklari。

My first question is on Siding. You had mentioned on the last quarter call that you were limiting the amount of pre-buy ahead of the January price increase. I guess, one, was that a success? And two, given that, how are you thinking about the order files as we are coming into this year and the channel inventories and what that could suggest for the volumes in that segment as we think about the next couple of quarters?

我的第一個問題是關於壁板的。您在上個季度的電話會議上提到，您在一月份價格上漲之前限制了預購數量。我想，第一，這成功了嗎？第二，考慮到這一點，您如何看待今年即將到來的訂單文件和通路庫存，以及當我們考慮未來幾季時，這對該細分市場的銷售有何建議？

Susan, we did limit [Repair and Remodel] volume to basically the average purchases over the prior 9 months for our customers. So we had essentially no into minimal prebuy or prebuy into December volume for January. So I feel really good how we carry that across the year, and I feel good about the first 6 weeks activity and our order file. And I feel -- there always is some seasonal inventory build this time of year in Siding as people come back from the holidays in anticipation of the spring build, especially now that we're also in the prefinished business. But I would call a seasonal build right now in the channel normal, pre-COVID normal. And so we feel good about pave for order file, and we feel good about for inventory's level -- inventory levels are now in the channel and our own inventories at the mill level.

蘇珊，我們確實將 [維修和改造] 數量限制為基本上是我們客戶過去 9 個月的平均購買量。因此，我們基本上沒有對 1 月的最低預購量或 12 月的預購量進行預購。因此，我對我們全年的表現感到非常滿意，而且我對前 6 週的活動和我們的訂單文件也感覺良好。我覺得，每年的這個時候，當人們從假期回來，期待春季的庫存時，賽丁總是會出現一些季節性庫存的增加，特別是現在我們也從事預成品業務。但我認為現在通路中的季節性建設是正常的，在新冠疫情之前是正常的。因此，我們對訂單文件的準備感到滿意，並且對庫存水準感到滿意 - 庫存水準現在處於渠道中，而我們自己的庫存處於工廠水準。

Okay. That's helpful. And then perhaps a higher level question, as we think about the potential that rates will come down as we move through the year, and that could drive some pickup in existing home sales. How are you thinking about what that could mean for the business? And any thoughts on the timing around that increase in the turnover in housing relative to when it could cut through to the actual results?

好的。這很有幫助。然後也許是一個更高層次的問題，因為我們考慮隨著這一年的推移，利率可能會下降，這可能會推動現有房屋銷售的一些回升。您如何看待這對企業意味著什麼？對於房屋成交量增加的時間相對於何時可以影響實際結果有什麼想法嗎？

Susan, I think interest rate reduction this year would have a -- I think it would have a significant impact on housing. I think that the kind of the short term would be more emotional perhaps than economic, just the movement downward, I think, would provide some homebuyers confidence to move into the market. I do think that over a period of time and could free up some existing homes to go on the market for homeowners that have been kind of hesitant in this interest rate environment to make that move, and that won't necessarily translate into new home construction. I mean wouldn't at all but it's certainly -- the housing that would be on the market.

蘇珊，我認為今年的降息會對住房產生重大影響。我認為，這種短期可能比經濟更情緒化，我認為，光是下行趨勢就會為一些購屋者提供進入市場的信心。我確實認為，在一段時間內，可能會釋放一些現有房屋進入市場，供那些在這種利率環境下猶豫不決的房主採取這一行動，但這不一定會轉化為新房建設。我的意思是根本不會，但肯定是——市場上的住房。

So I think for this year, on new construction, the impact would be maybe a little more emotional or feel good than it is really the economics changing. But I think over -- for 2025, it could be a very powerful driver of demand. And then secondly, on the Repair and Remodel, the residing project is a high dollar project that is highly likely to be financed instead of paying out of savings. And so I do think that interest rate reduction will have a more immediate impact on repair remodel by just making those projects more affordable for a homeowner. So -- if we get that reduction, I think it would provide new constructions on tailwind but maybe it would be more impactful to '25. I think for Repair and Remodel impact could be immediate for us.

因此，我認為今年，對於新建築，其影響可能會比經濟實際變化更加情緒化或感覺良好。但我想一想，到 2025 年，它可能會成為非常強大的需求驅動力。其次，在維修和改造方面，居住項目是一個高美元項目，很可能透過融資而不是用儲蓄支付。因此，我確實認為，降息將使這些項目對房主來說更負擔得起，從而對維修改造產生更直接的影響。因此，如果我們實現這一減少，我認為它將提供順風的新建築，但也許到 25 年會產生更大的影響。我認為維修和改造對我們的影響可能是立竿見影的。

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew McKellar from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的馬修麥凱勒 (Matthew McKellar)。

Maybe first, just setting aside the price increases, are you able to talk to how you would expect mix shift from what you seem to be more ExpertFinish and potentially more BuilderSeries product year-over-year to affect average selling price in Siding in 2024?

也許首先，拋開價格上漲，您能否談談您預計混合轉變將如何影響 2024 年 Siding 的平均售價？

Yes. So I think it's -- certainly, our focus this year is around growing our BuilderSeries and our ExpertFinish brands, one for -- ExpertFinish Repair and Remodel BuilderSeries for new construction. The BuilderSeries, it depends on the SKU, but typically, that is a price point item to a certain extent. So that would be a damper on average price as that volume increases, not necessarily on margin, but on price. And then for ExpertFinish that sells for a much higher pricing. And so that would be weighting our revenue up if we get more experts in it. So I'm not -- I think there's probably more opportunity from a net-net for the ExpertFinish to have a bigger impact possibly than BuilderSeries would have negatively, but we'll have to see how that plays out as we go through the year. So maybe mix would be a slight positive upside to the year compared to '23.

是的。所以我認為，當然，我們今年的重點是發展我們的 BuilderSeries 和 ExpertFinish 品牌，其中一個是用於新建築的 ExpertFinish Repair 和 Remodel BuilderSeries。 BuilderSeries，它取決於 SKU，但通常情況下，這在一定程度上是一個價格點項目。因此，隨著銷量的增加，這將抑制平均價格，不一定是利潤率，而是價格。然後 ExpertFinish 的售價要高得多。因此，如果我們擁有更多這方面的專家，我們的收入就會增加。所以我不是——我認為 ExpertFinish 可能有更多的機會產生比 BuilderSeries 產生的負面影響更大的影響，但我們必須看看這一年的結果如何。 。因此，與 23 年相比，今年的混合可能會略有積極的上升。

Okay. That's helpful. And then next, in new home construction, can you talk about what the tone is like from your customers in that segment. And with that, do you have a view at this point on whether housing starts by regional builders should trend much differently than housing starts across the industry?

好的。這很有幫助。接下來，在新住宅建設中，您能談談該細分市場客戶的基調嗎？那麼，您目前對於區域建築商的新房開工趨勢是否應該與整個行業的新房開工趨勢有很大不同有何看法？

Yes. So I would say, just given the exposure that we have at conferences and one-on-one conversations, I think that maybe in the middle of fall last year, I felt like there was some -- I felt more pessimistic about this year from a builder standpoint. I think the move there has strengthened through Q4 and certainly the tone right now is pretty solid. Obviously, the conversations around rate reduction has a positive impact on sentiment there or on the mood -- but the large national builders that are -- that we partner with are certainly optimistic about this year. They've put infrastructure in place to sell through this year and are anticipating growth.

是的。所以我想說，考慮到我們在會議和一對一對話中的曝光，我認為也許在去年秋天中旬，我覺得有一些——我對今年感到更加悲觀建設者的立場。我認為第四季的走勢有所加強，而且目前的基調肯定相當穩固。顯然，圍繞降息的對話對那裡的情緒或情緒產生了積極影響，但與我們合作的大型國家建設者肯定對今年持樂觀態度。他們已經準備好基礎設施以供今年銷售，並預計會出現成長。

I do -- I was surprised to hear in the conference I was in, in Q4 or maybe it was in January, anticipating some strengthening from the regional builders just because there's such a need for new home construction because the existing homes are on the market. And I mean, at the end of the day, there is only so much the national builders can do in the moment as they continue to grow. And also post-COVID, there has been some capability for the regional builders to get the permitting, get the infrastructure in place where they're maybe not as efficient as that as a big builder, but they have been working on it. So overall, I think we could see some recovery or some growth at the regional level. Honestly, that plays to our existing sweet spot in sign. We've always had a really good presence there. You couple that with continued growth at the national builder level, we could really play out for a good year for us in new construction.

我確實如此——我很驚訝地在我參加的第四季度或可能是一月份的會議上聽到，預計地區建築商會有所加強，因為現有房屋已在市場上，因此需要新房屋建設。我的意思是，歸根結底，國家建設者在不斷成長的過程中能做的就只有這麼多了。而且在新冠疫情之後，區域建築商也有能力獲得許可，將基礎設施建設到位，雖然他們的效率可能不如大型建築商，但他們一直在努力。總的來說，我認為我們可以看到區域層面的一些復甦或成長。老實說，這符合我們現有的星座優勢。我們在那裡一直表現得非常好。再加上國家建築商水準的持續成長，我們真的可以在新建築領域度過美好的一年。

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Weintraub from Seaport Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Mark Weintraub。

Alan, I appreciate the qualitative drivers behind the Siding margin changes. I was hoping maybe that we could get a little bit more color on how that translates into the quantitative 20% which, I guess, is a little bit lower than my back of the envelope would come out. But obviously, there's lots of stuff you guys know I don't. And so maybe if you -- maybe open ended, what you can add to the conversation at this point? Otherwise, I have kind of more pointed questions too.

艾倫，我很欣賞側邊利潤變化背後的定性驅動因素。我希望我們能夠對如何將其轉化為定量的 20% 獲得更多的了解，我猜這比我的信封背面的結果要低一些。但顯然，有很多事情你們知道而我不知道。所以也許如果你——也許是開放式的，你現在可以在對話中添加什麼？否則，我還有一些更尖銳的問題。

I'm not sure which one I prefer. Let me give you a couple of big numbers that are in this. And I'm going to give you ranges. So high level, the selling and marketing investment is $15 million to $20 million year-over-year. And the mill reversal, the mill investment reversal is $15 million to $20 million of reversing. We are adding other elements of SG&A around development of new products and the rest of the sort of infrastructure and the Siding business of in a region of, say, $10 million and we're anticipating inflation, which can change, of course, except for the labor part of maybe $20 million or so. So there are some big ticket items that are sort of more discrete. They are, in some instances, manageable, such as the Siding and marketing investment. And that's probably about as much detail I'm willing to give.

我不確定我更喜歡哪一個。讓我給你幾個其中的大數字。我將給你範圍。如此高的水平，銷售和行銷投資比去年同期達到 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元。而工廠逆轉，工廠投資逆轉是1500萬美元到2000萬美元的逆轉。我們正在圍繞新產品的開發以及其他基礎設施和壁板業務添加其他SG＆A要素，例如1000萬美元的區域，並且我們預計通貨膨脹，當然，通貨膨脹可能會發生變化，除了人工部分大概是2000萬美元左右。因此，有一些大件物品比較離散。在某些情況下，它們是易於管理的，例如壁板和行銷投資。我願意提供的細節大概就這麼多了。

That's super helpful. Maybe 2, is it that one shouldn't use like the 50% on incremental margins, which is sort of what you pence out on the anything new above and beyond on the sensitivity chart you provide for the increase in volumes that you've you embedded in the guide? Or is it...

這非常有幫助。也許2，人們不應該使用像50%這樣的增量利潤，這就是你在為你所提供的交易量增加而提供的敏感度圖表上的任何新的東西上花費的錢嵌入在指南中？或者說是...

Given those big ticket items I'd call that, if you use the incremental margins, it should all work and the risk of going further and giving you a way forward, okay. Based on something we're not going to be particularly forthcoming yet on because there is a relationship between the 2 on how volume and price breakdown within that revenue guide, it's simply too early in the year for us to give a reasonable call on that. But if you make your volume and price assumptions and use the sensitivities accordingly, you should get something in there.

考慮到我所說的那些大件物品，如果你使用增量利潤，它應該一切正常，並且有進一步前進的風險，並為你提供前進的道路，好吧。基於我們目前還不會特別透露的內容，因為收入指南中的銷售和價格細分兩者之間存在關係，所以今年我們對此做出合理的預測還為時過早。但如果你做出數量和價格假設並相應地使用敏感性，你應該會得到一些東西。

And so I guess that was the last question, which I had and maybe you sort of embedded it in your answers. The first one was -- and then pricing, would that be discrete? And if we're getting 2% additional pricing, that should be incremental to the EBITDA? Or did you just say that sort of embedded in the incremental margin analysis?

所以我想這是我的最後一個問題，也許你已經把它嵌入你的答案中了。第一個是——然後是定價，這會是離散的嗎？如果我們獲得 2% 的額外定價，這應該會增加 EBITDA 嗎？還是你只是說這種嵌入在增量利潤分析中？

That was -- it's not embedded in the incremental margin. The incremental margin discussion is always purely volume, so a pre-existing mix. So yes, the pricing is incremental, revenue and EBITDA.

那是——它沒有嵌入增量利潤。增量保證金討論始終純粹是數量，因此是預先存在的組合。所以是的，定價是增量、收入和 EBITDA。

Our next question comes from the line of Sean Steuart from TD Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自道明證券的 Sean Steuart。

Question on the OSB cycle average you're giving, which seems to make sense. But you're talking about an 85% operating rate assumption that underlies that, which isn't great. And I guess what I'm wondering is if you can speak to the shape of the cost curve in your OSB portfolio and thoughts on potential asset closures above and beyond siding conversions over the long run, the possibility on that front for the company.

關於您給出的 OSB 週期平均值的問題，這似乎是有道理的。但你談論的是作為其基礎的 85% 的開工率假設，這並不好。我想我想知道的是，您是否可以談談您的 OSB 投資組合中的成本曲線的形狀，以及對長期資產轉換之外的潛在資產關閉的想法，以及公司在這方面的可能性。

Well, I'll do the cost shape or the cost curve. It's pretty flat. And Sean, obviously, we have some mills that are our cost and lower cost. But and that's how we rationalize capacity when we do take the downtime. But if it's probably unmeasurable into $4 billion level, we had a shift back at Maniwaki or something like that on (inaudible) from a cost standpoint. So pretty flat cost curve. And then obviously, we've learned how to move that the capacity or the production up and down pretty efficiently. So the cost of downtime isn't great either. So yes, flat cost curve for us and relatively flat for the industry, at least when we do the analysis earlier in my career within the paper business where the cost curves could be pretty steep, and that's certainly not the case in OSB.

好吧，我會做成本形狀或成本曲線。它非常平坦。肖恩，顯然，我們有一些工廠是我們的成本和較低的成本。但這就是我們在停機時合理化容量的方式。但如果它可能無法衡量到 40 億美元的水平，那麼從成本的角度來看，我們會回到 Maniwaki 或類似的地方（聽不清楚）。成本曲線非常平坦。顯然，我們已經學會如何有效地上下移動產能或產量。因此，停機成本也不高。所以，是的，我們的成本曲線平坦，行業也相對平坦，至少當我們在造紙行業職業生涯的早期進行分析時，成本曲線可能相當陡峭，而定向刨花板肯定不是這種情況。

But you would -- sorry, go ahead.

但你會——抱歉，繼續吧。

For utilization, the 85% is the trailing 10-year actual average utilization. So it's very consistent with historical.

對於利用率，85%是過去10年的實際平均利用率。所以說是非常符合歷史的。

Second question on the growth CapEx of $50 million to $60 million in 2024, can you give us an idea of where that's being focused? Is it a few specific projects, a broad array of projects across several assets, any detail on that front?

關於 2024 年 5,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元成長資本支出的第二個問題，您能否告訴我們其重點在哪裡？是一些特定的項目，還是跨多個資產的廣泛項目，這方面有任何細節嗎？

It's everything and everywhere. We are -- the biggest single item is the investment in Structural Solutions enhancements for -- given the value-added OSB. But it's a bunch of small projects. There's no major project that I can really call out. But -- and again, 90% of -- sorry, 80% of that -- the strategic projects are basically inside it.

它是一切、無所不在。考慮到增值定向刨花板，我們最大的單一專案是對結構解決方案增強的投資。但這是一堆小項目。沒有什麼重大項目是我真正可以呼籲的。但是——再說一次，90%——抱歉，80%——戰略項目基本上都在裡面。

Our next question comes from the line of Kurt Yinger from D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Kurt Yiner。戴維森。

I was just curious, how important is BuilderSeries itself to your objectives to grow in the new residential construction segment? And I guess, along those lines, what has been kind of the primary feedback from production builders with that product to date? And what do you think is most important in terms of really hitting a tipping point and penetrating that specific customer set going forward?

我只是很好奇，BuilderSeries 本身對於您在新住宅建設領域發展的目標有多重要？我想，沿著這些思路，迄今為止，生產建構者對該產品的主要回饋是什麼？您認為，對於真正達到臨界點並滲透到特定客戶群而言，最重要的是什麼？

Yes. So the BuilderSeries is very important to our growth objectives as -- for our segment and for the company. It is -- it provides a competitive alternative for the big builder in new construction, of course. The reception upon use has been very good. It is a very workable product and certainly -- as are installed and the competitive product that we're going up against. So the reception has been good. The key trial and getting the product -- there's an incumbent product that we're having to compete against, and so the -- and that has a long sales process, these aren't something that is tracking -- the decision is not made weekly we're exciting a builders is going to use. And so it's a long sales process.

是的。因此，BuilderSeries 對於我們的細分市場和公司的成長目標非常重要。當然，它為新建建築的大型建築商提供了一個有競爭力的選擇。使用後的反應非常好。這是一個非常實用的產品，當然，就像我們面對的已安裝產品和競爭產品一樣。所以反應很好。關鍵的試驗和獲得產品——我們必須與現有產品競爭，所以——而且有一個漫長的銷售過程，這些不是正在跟踪的東西——沒有做出決定每週我們都會為建築商將要使用的產品感到興奮。所以這是一個漫長的銷售過程。

It I'll tell you, we have a great value proposition with BuilderSeries stand-alone, but as we couple that with Structural Solutions and even our commodity OSB, which is also a valuable part of the homebuilders package, we bring a halt to the sales process around these big builders that incorporates all of the products we make in North America. And we're finding traction with that as we couple Siding with the Structural Solutions portfolio and as I mentioned, even with the commodity OSB. We are a meaningful supplier -- have been a meaningful supplier to the big builder for a long time in our OSB business. And so bringing a Siding solution to that relationship, we're finding to be very helpful. The relationship that we've built through our OSB business is helpful in the sales process for Siding.

我會告訴您，我們對BuilderSeries 獨立產品有一個巨大的價值主張，但是當我們將其與結構解決方案甚至我們的商用定向刨花板（這也是住宅建築商包的重要組成部分）結合起來時，我們停止了圍繞這些大型建築商的銷售流程包含了我們在北美生產的所有產品。當我們將壁板與結構解決方案組合結合時，我們發現了這一點，正如我所提到的，甚至與商品定向刨花板結合在一起。我們是一家有意義的供應商——長期以來，我們的 OSB 業務一直是大型建築商的有意義的供應商。因此，我們發現為這種關係引入側線解決方案非常有幫助。我們透過 OSB 業務建立的關係對於 Siding 的銷售流程很有幫助。

So we're getting started. I feel good about the progress we've made since we launched BuilderSeries. I have a tremendous amount of confidence in the product. I have a lot of confidence that once we get the trial, once we get some usage and conversion, conversion, the product is going to be sticky because the installers going to love the product, as we've experienced across our portfolio for 25 years. And we were very under-penetrated at the national builder level. So all that volume is incremental to us and as those builders continue to grow and gain market share, this provides us a real -- a large opportunity to continue this growth story that we've been working on for the past 15 years in Siding.

那我們就開始吧。我對自推出 BuilderSeries 以來所取得的進展感到滿意。我對這個產品充滿信心。我非常有信心，一旦我們獲得試用，一旦我們獲得了一些使用和轉化，該產品就會具有粘性，因為安裝人員會喜歡該產品，正如我們 25 年來在我們的產品組合中所經歷的那樣。我們在國家建築商層面的滲透率非常低。因此，所有這些數量對我們來說都是增量，隨著這些建築商不斷發展並獲得市場份額，這為我們提供了一個真正的——一個巨大的機會來繼續我們過去15 年在Siding 一直致力於的成長故事。

Understood. I appreciate the color there, Brad. And then just for my second one, I mean, bigger picture on Siding margins, it sounds like the increase in investment in sales and marketing and SG&A this year is kind of getting back to normal as opposed to kind of a one-off step up. There's a pretty large gap still between 20% and call it, the mid-20s target for the segment. I'm just kind of curious if you could talk about the time line for getting back to those targeted siding EBITDA margins and whether that's possible prior to another conversion coming up to the extent that demand warrants it.

明白了。我很欣賞那裡的顏色，布拉德。然後，就我的第二個而言，我的意思是，關於 Siding 利潤率的更大前景，聽起來今年銷售和營銷以及 SG&A 投資的增加有點恢復正常，而不是一次性的提升。 20%（即該細分市場 20 多歲的目標）之間仍然存在相當大的差距。我只是有點好奇你能否談談恢復目標支線 EBITDA 利潤率的時間表，以及在另一次轉換達到需求保證之前是否有可能。

Yes. Good question. Yes, it's eminently possible before another mill comes up because the fundamental drag on the EBITDA margin right now is the fact that we're running with one extra mill in the network, which -- and so the margins will become healthier as that -- as we successfully fill that mill with new high-priced product. So yes, I am -- it is possible that we can enjoy a certain good movement towards 25% as we fill them, the capacity we have. As we've said, significant amount of our capacity additions are behind us and now in operation. So we are carrying that fixed costs, and we're carrying it because we're very confident that the volume needed by those mills to run profitably is very much in our future.

是的。好問題。是的，在另一家工廠出現之前這是完全有可能的，因為目前對 EBITDA 利潤率的根本拖累是我們在網路中運作著額外的工廠，因此利潤率將變得更健康——當我們成功地用新的高價產品填滿該工廠時。所以，是的，我認為，當我們填滿我們擁有的容量時，我們有可能享受到邁向 25% 的良好發展。正如我們所說，我們新增的大量產能已經過去，現在已投入運作。因此，我們承擔固定成本，因為我們非常有信心這些工廠獲利所需的產量在我們的未來是很大的。

And just one quick follow-up. I mean sequentially siting EBITDA margins look kind of down in Q1 versus Q4, it looks like volume could be flat, maybe a little bit better. You'll have the price increase. I mean, is that all just kind of the increase in selling and marketing that's weighing it down Q1 versus Q4? Or anything else to call out there?

只需一個快速跟進。我的意思是，按順序排列，第一季的 EBITDA 利潤率看起來比第四季度有所下降，看起來銷量可能持平，甚至可能好一點。你就會漲價。我的意思是，這是否只是銷售和行銷的增加導致第一季與第四季相比下降？或是還有什麼需要注意的地方嗎？

Labor inflation -- with January 1 pricing, wage increases and so on and things like that. Nothing other than what you might call normal economics.

勞動力通膨——1 月 1 日定價、薪資上漲等等。除了你所謂的正常經濟學之外什麼都沒有。

At this time, I would now like to turn the conference back over to Aaron Howald for closing remarks.

現在，我想將會議轉回艾倫霍華德 (Aaron Howald) 致閉幕詞。

Okay. Thank you, operator. There's no more questions, we'll end there. But before I do, let me briefly remind everyone that LP will be hosting an Investor Day in Las Vegas at the International Builder Show, 2 weeks from today on the 28th of February, starting at 10:00 in the morning, local time. The event will be in-person only with no simultaneous webcast, but we will record it and post the recording to the IR web page pretty soon thereafter. So if you're interested in attending, check the IR web page for details or reach out, contact me.

好的。謝謝你，接線生。沒有更多問題了，我們就到此結束。但在此之前，讓我簡單提醒大家，LP 將於兩週後的今天，即2 月28 日，在拉斯維加斯國際建築展上舉辦投資者日活動，時間為當地時間上午10:00 。活動將僅以現場形式進行，不會同時進行網路直播，但我們將對其進行錄製，並很快將錄製內容發佈到 IR 網頁上。因此，如果您有興趣參加，請查看 IR 網頁以了解詳細資訊或與我聯絡。

And with that, we'll close the call. Thank you, everyone, and we hope to see you in Vegas.

至此，我們就結束通話了。謝謝大家，我們希望在維加斯見到你們。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。