Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Q3 2023 Louisiana-Pacific Corporation Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加路易斯安那太平洋公司2023年第三季業績電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Mr. Aaron Howald, Vice President of Investor Relations and Business Development. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我想將會議發言權交給投資者關係和業務發展副總裁Aaron Howald先生。先生，請發言。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us to discuss LP's results for the third quarter of 2023 as well as our updated full year outlook. My name is Aaron Howald, and I am LP's Vice President of Investor Relations and Business Development. With me this morning are Brad Southern, LP's Chief Executive Officer; and Alan Haughie, LP's Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝接線員，大家早安！感謝大家加入我們，共同討論LP 2023年第三季的業績以及我們最新的全年展望。我叫Aaron Howald，是LP投資人關係與業務發展副總裁。今天上午，與我一起出席的還有LP執行長Brad Southern和財務長Alan Haughie。

During this morning's call, we will refer to a presentation that is available on LP's IR web page, which is investor.lpcorp.com. Our 8-K filing is also available there along with our earnings press release and other materials detailing LP's strategy and sustainable business model.

在今天早上的電話會議上，我們將參考LP投資者關係網頁（investor.lpcorp.com）上的一份簡報。我們的8-K文件、收益新聞稿以及其他詳細介紹LP策略和永續商業模式的資料也在此提供。

Today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial metrics as described on Slides 2 and 3 of the earnings presentation. The Appendix of the presentation also contains reconciliations that are further supplemented by this morning's 8-K. I will incorporate that content here in my reference rather than reading the slides.

今天的討論將包含收益簡報第2頁和第3頁所述的前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則財務指標。簡報的附錄還包含對帳表，這些對帳表由今天上午的8-K報表進行了進一步補充。我將把這些內容納入我的參考資料中，而不是直接閱讀投影片。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Brad.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給布萊德。

Thanks, Aaron, and thank you all for joining us to discuss LP's Q3 results and our full year outlook. The third quarter was our strongest of the year by far for both Siding and OSB. It was also a quarter in which LP's teams achieved key milestones for growth and sustainability, one of which we will recognize for our continuing focus on building a stronger and more inclusive culture.

謝謝Aaron，也感謝大家與我們一起討論LP的第三季業績和全年展望。對Siding和OSB來說，第三季是今年迄今業績最亮眼的季度。 LP團隊在本季也取得了成長和永續發展的關鍵里程碑，我們將以此為契機，繼續致力於打造更強大、更具包容性的文化。

Page 5 of the presentation shows financial highlights for the quarter. LP generated $728 million in net sales in the quarter, which was 15% lower than Q3 last year. At higher OSB prices and improved sell-through and inventory normalization in Siding led to a higher overall EBITDA margin than last year. With the result that LP earned $190 million in EBITDA, only 5% less in Q3 of last year. As a result, LP exceeded the high end of our guidance range despite OSB prices falling in September.

簡報的第5頁展示了本季的財務亮點。 LP本季淨銷售額為7.28億美元，較去年第三季下降15%。由於定向刨花板（OSB）價格上漲，加上Siding地區銷售量和庫存正常化，導致整體EBITDA利潤率高於去年。因此，LP的EBITDA為1.9億美元，僅比去年第三季下降5%。因此，儘管9月份OSB價格有所下降，LP的業績仍超出了我們預期的上限。

The $190 million in EBITDA translated very cleanly to $187 million in operating cash flow, and LP ended the quarter with $160 million in cash on hand after returning $17 million to shareholders via dividends and investing $49 million in growth and sustaining capital. We repaid our revolving credit facility and ended the quarter with over $700 million in liquidity.

1.9億美元的EBITDA非常清楚地轉化為1.87億美元的營運現金流，LP在本季度末持有1.6億美元的現金，此前該公司透過股息向股東返還了1700萬美元，並投資了4900萬美元用於增長和維持資本。我們償還了循環信貸額度，本季末的流動資金超過7億美元。

Page 7 of the presentation shows Siding growth relative to the housing market on a trailing 12-month basis. Remember the Q3 of 2022 was the best quarter on record for Siding volume and revenue as we remained on a managed order file until early December of last year. Despite this very difficult comp on a trailing 12-month basis, SmartSide sales volume beat single-family housing starts by 10 percentage points. Starts were down 16%, but Siding volume was down only 6% and Siding prices were up 8%. As you can see in the pie chart to the right, ExpertFinish was stable at 8% of volume in the quarter.

簡報的第7頁展示了過去12個月Siding相對於房地產市場的成長。請記住，2022年第三季度是Siding銷售和收入有史以來最好的一個季度，因為我們直到去年12月初才開始管理訂單。儘管與過去12個月相比，SmartSide的銷量非常艱難，但其銷售量仍比獨棟住宅開工率高出10個百分點。開工率下降了16%，但Siding銷量僅下降了6%，而價格上漲了8%。正如您在右側餅圖中所看到的，ExpertFinish在本季的銷售份額穩定在8%。

In the first half of 2023, Siding sales were dampened by inventory destocking after we finally transitioned from a managed order file late last year. Q3 saw the normalization of sell-through rates and inventory levels. As expected and despite market that is facing increasing affordability challenges, higher interest rates and elevated economic uncertainty, the third quarter saw sequentially higher volumes and average selling prices in the Siding business compared to Q2.

2023年上半年，由於我們去年年底最終從管理訂單文件過渡到庫存去化，壁板業務的銷售受到抑制。第三季度，銷售率和庫存水準已恢復正常。正如預期，儘管市場面臨日益嚴峻的負擔能力挑戰、利率上升和經濟不確定性加劇，但壁板業務第三季度的銷售和平均售價較第二季度環比有所增長。

As a result, we believe that the order patterns in channel inventory levels we are experiencing now are consistent with normal seasonal patterns with minimal lingering headwinds from destocking.

因此，我們認為，我們現在所經歷的通路庫存水準的訂單模式與正常的季節性模式一致，去庫存帶來的持續阻力最小。

This was not the first time that the Siding business has been on a managed order file, and the inventory digestion period before the resumption of a normal order cadence takes time. I am proud of the perseverance and dedication to Siding sales and operations teams demonstrated as we work through this process.

這並非Siding業務首次採用管理訂單模式，恢復正常訂單節奏之前的庫存消化期需要時間。 Siding銷售和營運團隊在這過程中展現出的毅力和奉獻精神令我感到自豪。

Before I hand the call over to Alan, I want to mention a few additional accomplishments in the quarter. Last month, we officially opened our newest prefinishing facility in Bath, New York. This brings enhanced scale, efficiency and geographic expansion to ExpertFinish. I want to officially welcome the Bath team to LP.

在將電話交給艾倫之前，我想提一下本季取得的一些額外成就。上個月，我們在紐約州巴斯市正式啟用了最新的預加工工廠。這將提升ExpertFinish的規模、效率和地理擴展。我在此正式歡迎巴斯團隊加入LP。

Bath is a third new facility for the Siding business in the past 2 years after the conversions of Houlton and Sagola. I am proud of the safe and efficient execution of all our recent capacity additions in Siding and confident that we are well positioned to resume growth in the diverse markets we serve.

繼霍爾頓和薩戈拉工廠轉型之後，巴斯工廠是Siding業務在過去兩年內新增的第三家工廠。我為Siding近期所有新增產能的安全高效運作感到自豪，並堅信我們已做好準備，在多元化的市場中恢復成長。

In the third quarter, LP published our third sustainability report as well as environmental product declarations for the Structural Solutions portfolio of value-added OSB products.

第三季度，LP 發布了我們的第三份永續發展報告以及結構解決方案組合增值 OSB 產品的環境產品聲明。

Structural Solutions products like TechShield Radiant Barrier, WeatherLogic sheating with integrated air and water barrier and legacy flooring all sequester more carbon than is emitted during their manufacturing and life cycle. Our customers and shareholders can be confident that LP's suite of engineered wood products combined with our responsible and sustainable management of resources means that LP can deliver best-in-class OSB and Siding products while also having a positive impact on the environment.

結構解決方案產品，例如 TechShield 輻射屏障、整合空氣和水阻隔層的 WeatherLogic 板以及傳統地板，其碳封存量均高於其製造和生命週期內的排放量。我們的客戶和股東可以放心，LP 的工程木產品系列，加上我們負責任且可持續的資源管理，意味著 LP 能夠提供一流的定向刨花板 (OSB) 和壁板產品，同時對環境產生積極影響。

This is most notable in Siding where competing products are made predominantly of cement or vinyl. When it comes to durable products with great curb-appeal and positive impact for builders, contractors, home owners and the environment, it is very hard to beat LP's portfolio of sustainable and carbon-negative engineered wood building solutions.

這一點在Siding領域尤其明顯，因為競爭產品主要由水泥或乙烯基製成。說到耐用、外觀精美、對建築商、承包商、房主和環境產生積極影響的產品，LP的可持續和碳負性工程木建築解決方案組合無疑是無可比擬的。

Lastly, before I turn the call over to Alan, I'm happy to say that LP was named by our local newspaper, The Tennessean and U.S.A. TODAY as a top workplace in Middle Tennessee. And by Newsweek as one of America's Greatest Workplaces, building a safe and inclusive culture where all of our team members feel welcome and encouraged to this own reward. And while we will never stop trying to improve, I am proud of our company and the progress we continue to make.

最後，在把電話轉給艾倫之前，我很高興地告訴大家，LP 被我們當地的報紙《田納西人報》和《今日美國》評選為中田納西州最佳工作場所之一。同時，它也被《新聞周刊》評選為美國最佳工作場所之一。我們建立了安全包容的文化，讓所有團隊成員都感到賓至如歸，並為此感到鼓舞。雖然我們永遠不會停止努力改進，但我為我們的公司以及我們不斷取得的進步感到自豪。

And with that, I will turn the call to Alan.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給艾倫。

Thanks, Brad. Slide 7 of the presentation shows the third quarter year-over-year revenue and EBITDA waterfall for Siding. The third quarter of last year was a high watermark for both Siding volume and revenue and admittedly, presents a difficult comp this year. However, as predicted, volumes and prices improved sequentially over the second quarter of this year by 6% and 2%, respectively.

謝謝，布拉德。簡報的第7張投影片展示了Siding第三季的年收入和EBITDA瀑布圖。去年第三季Siding的銷售和營收都創下了歷史新高，而今年的年比表現也不太樂觀。不過，正如預期的那樣，Siding的銷量和價格環比分別上漲了6%和2%。

On a year-over-year basis, prices were up 3 percentage points. The combined impact of last January's list price increase and favorable product mix added $10 million of revenue and EBITDA. Volume was down 16% with ExpertFinish holding its ground rather better than primed.

與去年同期相比，價格上漲了3個百分點。去年1月的標價上漲和有利的產品組合共同作用，增加了1000萬美元的收入和EBITDA。銷量下降了16%，但ExpertFinish的銷售表現比預期好得多。

I'm going to take a moment now to recap the ramp-up and conversion cost trend this year. The business carried embedded ramp-up costs of $16 million in the first quarter of this year, $10 million in the second quarter and now $8 million this quarter, including $1 million for the recently opened Bath prefinishing facility. This $8 million is $3 million higher than the $5 million we incurred in the third quarter of last year, and it is this $3 million increase that shows up on the waterfall.

現在，我想花點時間回顧今年的產能提升和轉換成本趨勢。今年第一季度，該業務的內含產能提升成本為1,600萬美元，第二季為1,000萬美元，本季為800萬美元，其中包括最近啟用的巴斯預加工工廠的100萬美元。這800萬美元比去年第三季的500萬美元高出300萬美元，而瀑布圖中顯示的正是這300萬美元的增幅。

Now, I mentioned this detail to emphasize the point that our current EBITDA margins are carrying the burden or the weight, if you will, of these costs. Moreover, the recently opened Bath facility will add about $4 million of incremental costs in the fourth quarter as it begins ramping up.

我提到這個細節是為了強調，我們目前的EBITDA利潤率正在承受這些成本的負擔，或者說，是這些成本的重擔。此外，最近開業的巴斯工廠隨著產能的提升，將在第四季增加約400萬美元的增量成本。

So despite generating a respectable 21% EBITDA margin in the third quarter, adding back the embedded $8 million I just referenced together with $5 million for the Dawson press rebuild, as shown in the last column of the waterfall, would produce an underlying EBITDA margin of about 24%.

因此，儘管第三季產生了可觀的 21% 的 EBITDA 利潤率，但如果加上我剛才提到的 800 萬美元內含資金以及 Dawson 印刷機重建的 500 萬美元（如瀑布圖最後一列所示），則會產生約 24% 的基礎 EBITDA 利潤率。

This margin was, of course, helped by the slowing of inflationary pressures on freight and raw materials, which delivered a $9 million EBITDA tailwind net of wage inflation.

當然，這一利潤率得益於貨運和原材料通膨壓力的減緩，扣除工資通膨因素，這帶來了 900 萬美元的 EBITDA 順風淨額。

Slide 8 tells the third quarter story for OSB, where price gains and cost controls more than offset volume reductions resulting in a small year-over-year increase in EBITDA despite the revenue decline. An OSB price drop late in the quarter, notwithstanding higher prices added $28 million of revenue and EBITDA to last year.

幻燈片8展示了定向刨花板（OSB）第三季的業績。價格上漲和成本控制抵消了產量下降的影響，儘管收入下降，但息稅折舊攤提前利潤（EBITDA）比去年同期小幅增長。儘管價格上漲，但本季末定向刨花板（OSB）價格有所下降，為去年帶來了2800萬美元的收入和EBITDA。

However, despite higher net price, the overall demand environment was softer than last year with open market volumes, particularly weak. And so the volume reduction in the quarter reflects not only the removal of the Sagola mill from the OSB fleet but also market curtailments in response to the softer demand.

然而，儘管淨價上漲，但整體需求環境較去年疲軟，公開市場交易量尤其疲軟。因此，本季交易量的減少不僅反映了Sagola工廠退出定向刨花板生產線的影響，也反映了為因應需求疲軟而採取的市場減產措施。

As with Siding, raw material deflation provided a small tailwind, but the star of the show was cost control, which contributed $11 million of EBITDA. In other words, despite significantly lower volumes, the OSB business run very efficiently, as demonstrated not only by the dollars, but by the 4 percentage point improvement in operating efficiency or OEE.

與Siding一樣，原料通貨緊縮帶來了些許利好，但最亮眼的還是成本控制，它貢獻了1100萬美元的EBITDA。換句話說，儘管產量大幅下降，OSB業務仍運作高效，這不僅體現在銷售額上，也體現在營運效率（OEE）提高了4個百分點。

As Brad has already mentioned, it was a clean quarter for cash flow, as shown on Slide 9, with $190 million of EBITDA producing a $187 million of operating cash flow. We spent $49 million in growth and maintenance capital, returned $17 million to shareholders via the quarterly dividend and repaid the $30 million draw on our revolver. As a result, cash balances increased by $90 million in the quarter to end September at $160 million. Cash has continued to increase subsequently and currently stands at a little over $200 million.

正如Brad先前提到的，本季現金流表現良好，如第9張投影片所示，1.9億美元的EBITDA帶來了1.87億美元的營運現金流。我們支出了4900萬美元的成長和維護資本，透過季度股息向股東返還了1700萬美元，並償還了3000萬美元的循環信貸額度。因此，截至9月底的季度，現金餘額增加了9,000萬美元，達到1.6億美元。隨後，現金餘額持續成長，目前略高於2億美元。

Finally, let me discuss our updated full year outlook on Slide 10. With respect to CapEx, having already spent $236 million so far in 2023, the fourth quarter will likely look a lot like the third quarter for capital spending. The bulk of the near-term growth and conversion capital is behind us with Sagola and Bath now up and running, so the fourth quarter spend will mostly be on sustaining maintenance.

最後，請容許我在幻燈片10上討論我們最新的全年展望。就資本支出而言，2023年迄今已支出2.36億美元，因此第四季的資本支出可能與第三季大致相同。由於Sagola和Bath工廠現已投入運營，近期成長和轉換資本的大部分已完成，因此第四季度的支出將主要用於持續維護。

Siding revenue for the third quarter largely met our internal expectations, so we are reiterating the guidance we provided on our second quarter call that we expect a full year Siding revenue decline of about 10%, which implies a fourth quarter revenue decline of about 16%.

第三季的壁板收入基本上符合我們的內部預期，因此我們重申我們在第二季電話會議上提供的指導，即我們預計全年壁板收入將下降約 10%，這意味著第四季度收入將下降約 16%。

For OSB, we will continue to offer algorithmic revenue guidance based on the assumption that OSB prices remain at the levels published by Random Lengths last Friday. Under this price model and accounting for market downtime, we would expect OSB revenue to be down 30% sequentially compared to the third quarter.

對於定向刨花板 (OSB)，我們將繼續基於假設 OSB 價格維持在 Random Lengths 上週五公佈的水平來提供演算法收入指引。根據此價格模型，並考慮到市場低迷時期，我們預計 OSB 收入將環比第三季下降 30%。

Under these assumptions, including the start-up costs of the Bath prefinished facility I referenced earlier and some maintenance expenses in both businesses, we would expect total company fourth quarter EBITDA to be between $60 million and $80 million.

根據這些假設，包括我之前提到的巴斯預製工廠的啟動成本以及兩個業務的一些維護費用，我們預計公司第四季度的 EBITDA 總額將在 6000 萬美元至 8000 萬美元之間。

Now before we take your questions, please allow me to anticipate one. We're not yet in a position to offer revenue or EBITDA guidance for 2024, but our capital allocation strategy remains unchanged as well the flexibility with which we deploy capital to invest in capacity. If the housing and repair and remodel markets are basically flat next year, as most forecasters currently anticipate, then Sagola and Bath provide LP Siding business with sufficient capacity to press and prefinish enough SmartSide to meet demand.

在回答大家的問題之前，請容許我先預測一下。我們目前還無法提供2024年的收入或EBITDA指引，但我們的資本配置策略以及我們靈活部署資本投資產能的策略保持不變。如果明年住房和維修改造市場基本上持平（正如大多數預測者目前預測的那樣），那麼Sagola和Bath將為LP Siding業務提供足夠的產能，以壓制和預先加工足夠的SmartSide以滿足需求。

And when might we start converting the recently acquired Wawa facility of Siding? Well the answer, as established on prior calls is when the market demands it. We don't know exactly when that will be, but we have sufficient capacity, liquidity and most importantly, flexibility to be responsive to demand when that time comes. And in the meantime, our capital allocation strategy remains to earn cash, invest in our growth as needed and return a significant amount of the remainder to shareholders.

我們什麼時候可以開始改造最近收購的Wawa Siding工廠？答案是，如同先前的電話會議所述，市場需要的時候就會開始。我們不確定特定時間，但我們擁有充足的產能、流動性，最重要的是，我們擁有足夠的彈性，能夠在市場需求到來時做出回應。同時，我們的資本配置策略仍然是賺取現金，根據需要投資我們的成長，並將剩餘的大部分回饋給股東。

And with that, we'll be happy to take a round of questions.

接下來，我們很樂意回答大家的提問。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from the line of Mark Weintraub with Seaport Research Partners.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Mark Weintraub。

The first question, if we think about the fourth quarter Siding margins, I guess we're going to have Bath against us. But kind of order of magnitude, how should we think about it being relative to the third quarter?

第一個問題，如果我們考慮第四季壁板的利潤率，我猜巴斯的利潤率會對我們不利。但具體到數量級，我們該如何看待它與第三季的對比呢？

Yes. Given that volumes in the fourth quarter, if we hit this forecast, they're going to be lower than the third quarter, and the business has a high available margin, then even excluding the Bath costs, the EBITDA margin would have been a little lower than Q3. And then, of course, as we add on, as you point out, the Bath costs are lower the margin a little bit more. So the closest approximation to the Siding in Q4 performance, closest to approximation is probably Q2 of this year, similar-ish in terms of most of the drivers.

是的。考慮到第四季度的銷售量（如果我們達到這個預測），銷量將低於第三季度，而且該業務的可用利潤率很高，那麼即使剔除巴斯的成本，EBITDA利潤率也會比第三季度略低。當然，正如您所指出的，我們補充一下，巴斯的成本會進一步拉低利潤率。因此，與Siding第四季業績最接近的可能是今年第二季度，就大多數驅動因素而言，兩者的表現都差不多。

Got it. And I believe that was at about 18% to 19% EBITDA margins in Q2?

明白了。我記得第二季的EBITDA利潤率大概在18%到19%之間吧？

Yes, that was Q2. So closest to approximation. I'm not necessarily committing to that number but closest to approximation, the shape of the quarter is very similar. Yes.

是的，那是第二季的數據。所以非常接近近似值。我不一定要確定這個數字，但非常接近近似值，本季的走勢非常相似。是的。

And then as we're thinking about next year, assuming you're not moving forward with Wawa and the start-up costs there, which I guess seems kind of unlikely, can we add that $38 million of start-up costs with Sagola, press rebuilds, the Bath expansion, et cetera, when we bridge '24 versus '23? Or would you suggest we think about it differently from that?

那麼，我們考慮明年的情況，假設您不繼續推進Wawa的運營，以及那裡的啟動成本（我想這似乎不太可能），我們能否在2024年和2023年之間，加上Sagola的3800萬美元啟動成本、印刷機重建、Bath擴建等等？或者您建議我們換一種思路？

I'd like -- I suggest thinking about it slightly differently. So a proportion of those costs are permanently embedded. They're the fixed cost of having the facilities. Now of course, that sets us up to be able to bring on incremental volume very efficiently because their fixed cost infrastructure is largely already in place. So the real way to think about it is those embed costs set us up to potentially have a high variable incremental margin on additional volume next year.

我想——我建議換個角度思考這個問題。這些成本中有一部分是永久嵌入的。它們是設施運作的固定成本。當然，這使我們能夠非常有效率地實現增量，因為他們的固定成本基礎設施基本上已經到位。所以，真正的思考方式是，這些嵌入成本使我們有可能在明年的新增產量上獲得較高的變動增量利潤。

That's the way to think about it. So they're there, but it means that as volume comes on, those costs don't need to be added again because they're already embedded in our current run rate. And it's an investment, and I say this a lot, I know it's an investment in the future that allows us to immediately recognize the EBITDA from incremental volume when we get it.

我們應該這樣想。這些成本確實存在，但這意味著隨著產量的增加，這些成本無需再次增加，因為它們已經包含在我們當前的運行率中了。這是一項投資，我經常這麼說，我知道這是一項面向未來的投資，它讓我們在獲得增量產量時，能夠立即確認EBITDA。

Okay. So, but would none of that $38 million have been quasi onetime, it should all be viewed as embedded or...

好的。那麼，這3800萬美元不應該是一次性支出嗎？它們都應該被視為嵌入支出，或者…

Yes. I'm being a little bit cagey, some of it's embedded and some of it is onetime because some of the costs that -- here's a good example on the ramp-up cost. When you're ramping up, we have to -- we know we don't make a great product. So some of the product that gets produced as we ramp up is essentially scrapped as we learn to run efficiently.

是的。我有點謹慎，有些是內生的，有些是一次性的，因為有些成本——這裡有一個很好的例子，關於產能提升成本。當你產能提升時，我們必須－我們知道我們生產的產品不夠好。所以，在我們學習如何有效率運作的過程中，一些在產能提升過程中生產出來的產品其實會被廢棄。

So some of those costs are indeed those very start-up costs, but it's a bit too early for me to commit to a precise separation. You're right that some of those are inherent inefficiencies that would not be repeated. The rest is fixed cost infrastructure that will be.

所以，其中一些成本確實屬於啟動成本，但現在我下定決心進行精確劃分還為時過早。你說得對，其中一些是固有的低效率，不會再發生。其餘的是固定成本基礎設施，以後會再發生。

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Kurt Yinger with D.A. Davidson.

請稍等片刻，我們下一個問題將由 D.A. Davidson 的 Kurt Yinger 提出。

I guess as you've kind of wrapped up this inventory normalization in Q3. Any thoughts on how much of a headwind that's going to ultimately pose to volumes this year? And how have incoming orders trended as you've gone from kind of Q3 to Q4 here?

我想您大概在第三季完成了庫存正常化。您覺得這最終會對今年的銷售造成多大的阻礙？從第三季到第四季度，新訂單的趨勢如何？

Yes. Well, so for 2023, we're -- it's not the easiest thing to settle on a number for what the headwind was. But if you look at historical sales, if you look at some of the inventory reporting we're getting now from distribution, it can be as much as 100 million feet of volume that we sold last year and then moved out of the channel this year, which has caused the headwind that you've mentioned.

是的。嗯，所以對於2023年來說，我們很難確定一個數字來衡量逆風究竟有多大。但如果你看看歷史銷量，看看我們現在從分銷渠道獲得的庫存報告，你會發現，去年我們售出的庫存量可能高達1億英尺，而今年卻從渠道中流出，這才是你提到的逆風的原因。

As far as where we are today, we do have all customers back in the order file routinely like on a normal cadence based on history. And so we feel good at across the board, across all different channels that we've worked through the inventory situation, and we're seeing real demand flow back through -- consumer demand flowing back through to our order file.

就目前情況而言，我們確實已將所有客戶訂單按照歷史記錄的正常節奏定期重新錄入訂單檔案。因此，我們對所有管道（包括所有管道）的庫存情況感到滿意，我們看到真正的需求正在回流——消費者需求正在回流到我們的訂單檔案中。

Got it. Okay. That's very helpful. And then I guess as you look at across some of the different products within SmartSide, ExpertFinish, the BuilderSeries, maybe some of the volume that was going into the shed manufacturers that was weaker earlier in the year, I guess, are there any parts of that, that you're particularly excited about kind of growing next year, notwithstanding a big change in kind of the macro demand environment? Or what do you see as kind of the biggest kind of above-market growth drivers over the next 12 months?

明白了。好的。這很有幫助。然後，我想，當您查看SmartSide、ExpertFinish和BuilderSeries等不同產品時，也許其中一些產品今年早些時候進入棚屋製造商的銷量較低，我想，儘管宏觀需求環境發生了巨大變化，您是否對明年的增長感到特別興奮？或者，您認為未來12個月最大的高於市場的成長動力是什麼？

So Kurt, if you would just say for the sake of this question that new home construction is flat next year on our spend is flat next year, we're excited. I'm excited about the opportunity to gain market share in Repair and Remodel due to our ExpertFinish growth, the Bath, New York facility, the Houlton plant behind it, it is making product for the Eastern seaboard, an area where it's a highly active Siding repair and remodel market, but one where we are underpenetrated. So as we build capability and capacity there and scale, there's just a lot of opportunity for market share gains.

所以，庫爾特，如果你只是為了回答這個問題而說，明年新房建設支出持平，我們對此感到很興奮。我很高興有機會在維修和改造領域獲得市場份額，這得益於我們ExpertFinish業務的成長，以及位於紐約州巴斯的工廠及其背後的霍爾頓工廠，這些工廠正在為東海岸地區生產產品。東海岸地區的壁板維修和改造市場非常活躍，但我們的滲透率還很低。因此，隨著我們在那裡提升能力、產能並擴大規模，我們將擁有很大的市場份額提升機會。

And then on the new construction side, we continue to go to market with our BuilderSeries portfolio of products, which provides us a competitive offering for the builder. And while we have depending on the geography, decent to good market share with smaller -- the smaller regional builders, we are underpenetrated when it comes to the more national players. And we're excited about the possibility for BuilderSeries to compete in that environment in a very meaningful way and us to gain market share next year there as well.

在新建築方面，我們繼續向市場推出BuilderSeries產品組合，這為建築商提供了極具競爭力的產品。雖然我們在某些​​地區，尤其是小型區域建築商中擁有不錯的市場份額，但對於全國性建築商，我們的滲透率仍然不足。我們很高興BuilderSeries能夠在這樣的市場環境中以極具競爭力的方式參與競爭，並且明年我們也能獲得更高的市場份額。

Now share, we already have really high market share there. There's -- we're looking at tweaking that or getting a few more points. But I think the meaningful growth above overall market growth for us over the next 5 years or so is going to be an ExpertFinish through Repair and Remodel and then with the bigger builders.

現在就市場佔有率而言，我們在那裡已經擁有很高的市場佔有率。我們正在考慮調整，或再提高一些份額。但我認為，未來五年左右，我們能夠超越整體市場成長的真正成長點，將是透過維修和改造，打造專業裝修服務，然後與更大的建築商合作。

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Michael Roxland with Truist Securities.

請稍等片刻，我們下一個問題將由 Truist Securities 的 Michael Roxland 提出。

I just want to follow up on Kurt's question in terms of market share and how intend to gain market share. It seems like one of your Siding competitors are gaining share with homebuilders and continues to be very vocal about it. You also mentioned last quarter that you're a little underpenetrated with the large national builders, you just mentioned that again, Brad here. So I just want to understand your approach with the builders, what are you doing to gain share? And aside from market conditions and what had been destocking, is there anything constraining you from gaining more notable share with the builders?

我想繼續回答庫爾特關於市場佔有率以及如何提升市場佔有率的問題。看起來你們Siding的一個競爭對手正在搶佔住宅建築商的市場份額，並且一直在積極宣傳這一點。上個季度你也提到，你們在大型全國性建築商中的滲透率略低，布拉德，你剛才又提到了這一點。所以我想了解你們與建築商的合作方式，你們正在採取哪些措施來提升市場佔有率？除了市場行情和去庫存的影響之外，還有什麼因素阻礙你們在建築商中獲得更多市場份額？

No, there's no constraint other than us being generally new to that sales cycle. Let me -- and I will caveat that a little bit because we've had decent pull-through with our TRIM portfolio of products with national builders for a while. So it's not like that's alien to us to sell into the big national builders, also very strong market share there on the OSB side.

不，除了我們對這個銷售週期還不熟悉之外，沒有其他限制。我稍微補充一下，因為我們的TRIM產品組合已經與全國性建築商合作了一段時間，並且取得了不錯的業績。所以，向大型全國性建築商銷售產品對我們來說並不陌生，而且我們在定向刨花板（OSB）方面也擁有非常強大的市場份額。

So the relationships exist with these big national public builders primarily through our history of selling OSB products through that channel. But the key to us has been -- is having a competitive product, which we do now. The fact that we know we believe the product is more than competitive, if it's superior. And so -- but it's a long sales cycle in these kind of deals, and we've been working those hard all through this year and are optimistic about the progress we've made. And as we look forward into next year, we see that opportunity for growth, as I've already mentioned.

因此，我們與這些大型全國性公共建築商建立的合作關係主要源自於我們透過該管道銷售定向刨花板 (OSB) 產品的歷史。但對我們來說，關鍵在於擁有一款具有競爭力的產品，而我們現在就擁有了。我們堅信，如果產品品質卓越，那麼它就不僅僅是具有競爭力。這類交易的銷售週期很長，我們今年一直在努力，對所取得的進展充滿信心。展望明年，正如我之前提到的，我們看到了成長的機會。

And we are building off -- from a lap Siding standpoint, we're building off a very small base. And so with the big national builders. So the ability for us to grow, what for us would be substantially as we're pretty encouraged about, but it will take time. But the good thing about these deals is they are multiyear or at least a single year, at least, and so there is some surety of supply once you're able to retain it or get it.

從搭接壁板的角度來看，我們目前的基礎非常小。大型全國性建築商也是如此。因此，我們有能力實現成長，這對我們來說將是巨大的，我們對此感到非常鼓舞，但這需要時間。但這些交易的好處是，它們是多年期的，或至少是一年期的，所以一旦你能夠保留或獲得供應，就會有一定的保障。

Got it. Appreciate the color. And then just one quick follow-up on your competitors. I believe one is out with a Siding price increase in early January. Is that something that maybe you could use your advantage and maybe in terms of trying to gain share? Use that against them as they've -- my understanding have been pretty aggressive with their pricing with builders over the last 12 to 15 months or so.

明白了。欣賞你的配色。然後我想快速跟進你的競爭對手。我相信其中一家公司將在1月初提高壁板的價格。這是不是你可以利用的優勢，或許可以試著提升市場佔有率？利用這一點來對付他們，因為據我了解，在過去12到15個月左右的時間裡，他們與建築商的定價相當激進。

Well, there's -- I answered that a little bit more generally than against just one competitor. I mean, obviously, when it comes to these big programs, price or cost of the whole package is critical to the success there. And so yes, I mean, if a competitor has a higher price than us, that box gets ticked in our favor as we work these deals.

嗯，我的回答比較籠統，而不是只針對一個競爭對手。我的意思是，顯然，對於這些大型專案來說，整套方案的價格或成本對於成功至關重要。所以，是的，我的意思是，如果競爭對手的價格比我們高，那麼在我們進行這些交易時，這對我們來說就有利了。

But typically, that kind of always gets worked out in the back end anyway. And so really, where we're trying to compete is off our value proposition which is the quality of the product, the aesthetics of the product and the ease of installation.

但通常情況下，這類問題最終都會在後端解決。所以，我們真正想要競爭的是我們的價值主張，也就是產品的品質、產品的美觀和安裝的便利性。

And so that's how we lead, and then, obviously, though, at the end of the day, we've got to be competitive on price as well. And as I've mentioned, probably 100 times -- already 4 or 5 times on this call, we finally, have a product we're able to be competitive on pricing as well as bringing all the other advantages of SmartSide to the builder conversation.

這就是我們的領先優勢。當然，最終，我們也必須在價格上保持競爭力。正如我之前提到的，大概100次了──這次電話會議已經提到了四、五次了。我們終於推出了一款既有價格競爭力的產品，又能將SmartSide的所有其他優勢帶到與建築商的對話中。

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs.

請稍等片刻，回答我們的下一個問題。這個問題將由高盛的Susan Maklari提出。

My first question is, last quarter you had mentioned that you saw a fairly substantial decline in shed demand during that, and that was part of what was going through that Siding segment. Is there anything that's changed or that is impacting the business as you think about the fourth quarter guide there?

我的第一個問題是，您提到上個季度棚屋需求大幅下降，這也是Siding部門所經歷的部分原因。就第四季的業績預期而言，有什麼變化或影響業務的因素嗎？

No, the shed business has rebounded a good bit from what we reported for what would have been Q2 results. I will call that back to more of a normal cadence there. I do think the -- from just overall demand and that channel has been suppressed this year a little bit given how active it was last year. But we feel good, ultimately reiterate all of those customers are also back on our order file.

不，棚屋業務比我們預期的第二季業績反彈。我認為業務恢復到了更正常的節奏。我確實認為——從整體需求來看，考慮到去年的活躍程度，今年該頻道略有抑制。但我們感覺良好，最終重申，所有這些客戶也都回到了我們的訂單清單上。

And so we are seeing pulls in shed, and then typically -- so there is a little bit more of a pull this time from now on, as folks build some inventory and preparation of the builds they do to have product to sell in the spring. And so typically, late Q4 to early Q1 are pretty strong product pulls in that segment. We're expecting similar -- but we're expecting to see that increase in demand as we look forward.

因此，我們看到庫存的拉動，通常情況下——從現在開始，拉動會更大一些，因為人們正在建立庫存，並為春季銷售的產品做準備。通常情況下，第四季末到第一季初，該細分市場的產品拉動會相當強勁。我們預計情況也類似——但我們預計未來需求會有所增長。

And so I would call it back to normal, though I will say compared to all the other channels, normal is probably still a little less than what the kind of demand we were seeing in 2021 and 2022.

因此，我認為它會恢復正常，但我想說，與所有其他管道相比，正常情況可能仍比我們在 2021 年和 2022 年看到的需求要低一些。

I wanted to add something for the general audience as well. The Q4 revenue guide for Siding does include the fact that we are limiting prebuy in advance of January price increase, partly so that we don't have a repeat of last year where we limited our ability to read the market. So the Q4 guide does include a limit on prebuy.

我還想為大家補充一些資訊。 Siding 的第四季收入指南確實提到了，我們在 1 月份價格上漲之前會限制預購，部分原因是為了避免重蹈去年的覆轍，當時我們限制了對市場的解讀能力。所以，第四季指南確實包含了預購的限制。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe turning to OSB for a minute. When you think about that segment, and sort of the more recent trends there, they seem like they're a bit in contrast to what we are seeing from, especially the large big public builders and their tone as they think about 2024?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我們來談談定向刨花板 (OSB)。當你思考這個細分市場以及它最近的趨勢時，你會發現它們似乎與我們所看到的，尤其是大型公共建築商以及他們對 2024 年的展望，形成了鮮明對比。

Can you just comment a bit about the channel inventories in OSB, including perhaps some of your structural solution products in there? And how you're thinking about the potential for those volumes to move over the fourth quarter or maybe even into the early parts of 2024?

您能否簡單談談OSB的通路庫存，包括一些結構性解決方案產品？您認為這些庫存在第四季度，甚至2024年初的趨勢潛力如何？

Well, look, inventory situation for -- in the channel for OSB remains, I would say, normal to slightly lean currently as of today, that can change pretty quickly in the OSB world. So I know you understand, but I would -- unlike Siding, there's really never was any meaningful OSB inventory build. I mean it can happen over -- for 2 or 3 weeks at a time, but typically, our order file is staying pretty normal right now. So we're not having -- we're not extending it, we're not shortening it. And so I feel good about where inventories are.

嗯，就目前而言，OSB 通路的庫存情況，我想說，目前仍然處於正常甚至略微偏低的水平，OSB 行業的情況變化很快。我知道您明白，但我想說的是，與 Siding 不同，OSB 庫存從未出現任何顯著的增加。我的意思是，這種情況可能會持續兩三週，但通常情況下，我們的訂單文件目前保持相當正常的狀態。所以我們沒有延長庫存週期，也沒有縮短庫存週期。因此，我對庫存狀況感到滿意。

I mean I do think there's going to be some seasonal component to demand with the builder beginning Thanksgiving -- the week of Thanksgiving through probably the first couple of weeks of January. That's normal of what we've seen historically. The pre-COVID -- before COVID screwed all seasonality up for us. So I would not be surprised to see the OSB demand decline, again, around the Thanksgiving time frame.

我的意思是，我確實認為，從感恩節開始，建築商的需求會受到一些季節性因素的影響——從感恩節那週到大概一月的頭幾週。這在我們歷史上是正常的。在新冠疫情之前，我們所有的季節性因素都被打亂了。所以，如果在感恩節前後看到定向刨花板（OSB）的需求再次下降，我一點也不會感到驚訝。

Typically, our channel partners are going to -- want across the year with its lean inventories as they can kind of live with. So we also get a little bit of that negatively impacting demand. And then we typically get a pop once folks are back from the holidays and then they start looking forward to the spring -- a building season.

通常情況下，我們的通路夥伴會希望全年庫存保持低位，因為他們可以接受。因此，我們的需求也會受到一些負面影響。通常情況下，當人們假期回來後，我們的需求就會激增，然後他們開始期待春季——一個建築旺季。

So I'm expecting for both Siding and OSB for this -- for normal seasonality to return this year. We have not had that over the last 3 winters, so we're planning accordingly. We obviously have the ability to respond in both businesses either up or down as demand -- real demand becomes apparent. But I can see -- personally see building slowing from middle of November to middle of January.

因此，我預計今年外牆板和定向刨花板的季節性都會恢復正常。過去三個冬天我們都沒有恢復，所以我們正在相應地進行規劃。隨著需求——實際需求的顯現——我們顯然有能力對這兩個業務的產量進行調整，無論是增加還是減少。但我個人認為，從11月中旬到1月中旬，建築業的成長會有所放緩。

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Ketan Mamtora with BMO.

請稍等片刻，我們下一個問題將由BMO的Ketan Mamtora提出。

Alan, just one quick clarification to what you just said. So should I read this as you guys are already out in the market with the January price increase on Siding?

艾倫，我只想簡單澄清一下你剛才說的話。既然你們已經在市場上銷售壁板，1月的價格已經上漲了，我該看看這篇文章嗎？

Yes. I'll answer that, Ketan. We have communicated to the channel, a price increase is coming. We will be communicating. Those are highly tailored by region, by channel. And so that specific communication will be going out over the next couple of weeks. It is a January 1 price increase. And as Alan mentioned, we're doing it a little different this year in the way we're implementing that.

是的。 Ketan，我來回答這個問題。我們已經和通路溝通過，價格即將上漲。我們會持續溝通。具體價格會根據地區和通路進行調整。具體的溝通會在接下來的幾週內發布。價格將於1月1日起上漲。正如Alan所提到的，我們今年的漲價方式略有不同。

Historically, we have allowed our channel partners to buy 110% of their kind of normal purchases like prior 6 months or something like that. We'll pick a time frame and so you can buy 110%, we're doing this year going to buy 100% of your prior purchase history as a way to mitigate the probability of us building prebuys impacting Q4 positively and Q1 negatively. And also that allows us to realize pricing quicker with -- on that volume.

過去，我們允許通路夥伴購買相當於其正常購買量的110%，例如過去6個月的購買量。我們會選擇一個時段，這樣您就可以購買110%的預購量。今年我們將實現100%的預購量，以降低我們進行預購對第四季產生正面影響、對第一季產生負面影響的可能性。同時，這也使我們能夠更快地實現基於該數量的定價。

So yes, increase is being announced for January 1 one and other meaningful piece of news there is that we're -- of the way we're kind of trying to manage the prebuy out of existence, actually by limiting the purchases prior to the price increase.

是的，我們宣布將於 1 月 1 日漲價，另一個有意義的消息是，我們正在嘗試透過限制漲價前的購買量來消除預購現象。

Got it. That's very helpful, Brad. And then just one quick follow-up on OSB. What was your kind of operating rate in Q3? And whether it's fair to assume that those curtailments that you all took outside of Sagola continues into Q4?

明白了。布拉德，這很有幫助。然後我想快速跟進一下OSB。你們第三季的營運率是多少？是否可以合理地假設，你們在Sagola之外採取的減產措施會持續到第四季？

So we were running about 80% of capacity -- ran about 80% capacity in Q3. And in Q4, we're planning for that or a little lower. I would say probably with more downside than upside. As the way I responded to Sue's question, if we really see a demand slowdown in the latter half of the quarter, we'll plan to take more capacity out as we balance our capacity to demand. But that's how we're planning to operate during the quarter, and we will make sure that we satisfy our customers' needs but not get out of balance to that demand that we're feeling in our order file.

所以，我們第三季的產能利用率大約是80%。第四季度，我們計畫的產能利用率也差不多，或略低。我想說，可能下行空間大於上行空間。正如我回答Sue的問題時所說的，如果本季後半段需求真的放緩，我們計劃在平衡產能和需求的同時，減少更多產能。但這就是我們本季的營運計劃，我們將確保滿足客戶的需求，但不會與訂單文件中反映的需求失衡。

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Sean Steuart with TD Securities.

請稍等片刻，我們接下來提問。這個問題由道明證券的 Sean Steuart 提出。

Question on input costs. Can you give us a sense of variance versus Q3 for fiber and resin that's embedded in the Q4 guidance? And any context on trends you're seeing headed into 2024 on that front?

關於投入成本的問題。您能否介紹一下第四季指引中纖維和樹脂方面與第三季相比的變化？您認為2024年這方面的趨勢如何？

Well, generally speaking, trends are favorable as we head into Q4 and 2024. But we're cautious forecasters, so we generally don't bake in any sort of further improvement, meaning we assume that input costs are going to hold roughly at current levels as we forecast from Q3 to Q4. So the improved there's a tailwind there.

嗯，總體而言，隨著我們進入第四季和2024年，趨勢是正面的。但我們是謹慎的預測者，因此通常不會考慮任何進一步的改善，這意味著我們假設投入成本將大致保持在當前水平，正如我們預測的從第三季度到第四季度的情況一樣。因此，改善會帶來順風。

Okay. And just one question on modeling. The Siding price realizations this quarter improved a little bit sequentially, which is encouraging. How much of that is just a mix issue as the inventory bubble progressed through the quarter? Is there anything more to it than that and seeing that, the modest improvement sequentially?

好的。關於建模，我只想問一個問題。本季壁板價格實現環比略有改善，令人鼓舞。這在多大程度上只是庫存泡沫在本季持續發酵帶來的混合因素？除了比季略有改善之外，還有其他原因嗎？

Yes, it is mostly mix. So strong distribution business relative, which has particularly good pricing, ExpertFinish hold nicely, things like that. So it's -- there was no Q2 to Q3 price increase. So it's fundamentally the continuation of that favorable mix from Q2 to Q3.

是的，主要是混合型的。例如，分銷業務表現強勁，定價也特別好，ExpertFinish 表現也很好，諸如此類。所以，第二季到第三季的價格沒有上漲。所以，從根本上來說，這是第二季到第三季良好組合的延續。

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America.

請稍等片刻，下一個問題將由美國銀行的喬治·斯塔福斯（George Staphos）提出。

I wanted to talk a little bit about Siding. So you mentioned that you were eliminating the ability for your customers to buy somewhat ahead of your price increase coming in January. Are there any other changes that you're making with any of your commercial strategy or distribution strategy that you could relay on open my call to continue the progress into next year?

我想簡單談談Siding。您之前提到，在明年一月價格上漲之前，你們取消了客戶的提前購買功能。你們在商業策略或分銷策略方面還有其他調整嗎？能否在電話會議上透露一下，以便明年繼續推進這項進程？

And relatedly, with -- and one of the other analysts, I think Mike was talking about, your peers also saying that they're growing. You want to grow market share with the large builders. You have the BuildersSeries product. How do you ultimately make the progress you want to make towards the 25% margin given that product would typically have, I would imagine perhaps a little bit lower margin and you're trying to gain share. I know it's going to be around selling the value, but I want to hear additional thoughts there. So any change in the commercial strategy and how do you get to the margin you want, given what you want to get to in terms of your share with builders?

與此相關的是——我想 Mike 提到的另一位分析師也提到了，您的同行也表示他們的業務正在成長。您希望擴大與大型建築商的市場份額。您有 BuildersSeries 產品。考慮到該產品通常的利潤率（我猜想可能略低一些），而您又在努力擴大市場份額，您最終如何實現 25% 的利潤率目標？我知道這主要圍繞著價值的銷售，但我想聽聽您對此的其他看法。那麼，商業策略方面有什麼改變嗎？考慮到您希望在與建築商的市場份額方面達到的目標，您如何實現理想的利潤率？

Yes. So let me do the commercial first. And I would say that during COVID, being on allocation for all of 2 years, maybe a little more than 24 months, we've constantly cut back on our marketing spend as we were sold out. And so we will focus more on assets and resources that helped us optimize our order file versus getting into this -- into a growth and market share gain mindset. And so as we roll into next year and putting our budgets together, we're going to be more -- by allocating more resources to demand creation and a growth mindset versus how we've managed the business over the last couple of years, and that will be certainly in support of our BuilderSeries products as well as our Repair and Remodel products.

是的。我先來做個廣告。我想說的是，在新冠疫情期間，我們整整兩年，大概兩年多一點的時間都處於分配狀態，由於產品銷售一空，我們一直在削減行銷支出。因此，我們將更專注於那些幫助我們優化訂單文件的資產和資源，而不是專注於成長和市場份額的提升。因此，隨著我們進入明年並整合預算，我們將更多地——透過分配更多資源來創造需求並保持成長心態，而不是像過去幾年那樣管理業務，這無疑將支持我們的 BuilderSeries 產品以及我們的維修和改造產品。

And everything of what we do in retail across the board, really leaning into the new market condition here, which is in a flat to slightly growing housing market, we need to get more aggressive on share gains.

我們在零售領域所做的一切，都真正適應了這裡的新市場狀況，即房地產市場平穩或略有增長，我們需要更積極地提高市場份額。

On the margin question, you're generally right about the way you're thinking about lap Siding sold into the big builder. I will say, compared to prior years, though, and I've mentioned this several times on the call, the BuilderSeries was engineered to be competitive there. So it's not a ginormous margin hit for us to SKU volume there. But really where the offsetting -- 2 offsets to any margin that we have to give up to secure a big builder business.

關於利潤率的問題，你對大型建築商銷售搭接壁板的看法基本上正確。不過，我想說的是，與前幾年相比，BuilderSeries 的設計初衷就是為了在當地保持競爭力，這一點我在電話會議上已經多次提到過。因此，增加 SKU 數量不會對我們造成巨大的利潤損失。但真正的抵銷因素是——為了獲得大型建築商的業務，我們必須放棄 2 倍的利潤。

First of all, Repair and Remodel, it's not that way. It's a value sell. We're selling ExpertFinish, and the opportunity to gain market share through also growing our -- I'm sorry, again, margin by increasing our market share and Repair and Remodel can be a significant offset.

首先，維修和改造業務並非如此。它是一項價值銷售。我們銷售的是ExpertFinish，同時，我們也有機會透過增加市佔率來提升利潤率——抱歉，再次強調，透過增加市場佔有率和維修和改造業務，利潤率可能會顯著抵消我們損失。

Second to all that, Sagola as an example, on the manufacturing side, take Sagola or take Bath, New York, both of those are large mills, high-scale mills, low-cost mills compared to our average. And so as we ramp up these bigger pressing facilities or pre-finishing facilities, we're also seen an opportunity for cost reduction that will meaningfully impact our margins going forward.

其次，以薩戈拉（Sagola）為例，在製造業方面，無論是薩戈拉或紐約巴斯，這兩家工廠都是大型工廠，規模龐大，成本也低於我們的平均水準。因此，隨著我們擴大這些大型壓制設施或預精加工設施的規模，我們也看到了降低成本的機會，這將對我們未來的利潤率產生重大影響。

So it is a constant area of management and analysis around pricing, margin, cost reduction, OEE. And we've gotten way more sophisticated on how we manage pricing by channel, by customer, in some cases. So I'm confident that we'll manage it well, but I'm equally confident that our ability to get meaningful margin in this business is not going to be -- we've always had a spread of low margin to higher margin SKUs in our portfolio. If we add hypothetically, say, BuilderSeries is on the lower side of that, we've got plenty of opportunities on the upper side of our portfolio to gain margin, especially when you couple that with a more efficient operating platform.

因此，這是一個圍繞定價、利潤、成本削減和設備綜合效率 (OEE) 進行持續管理和分析的領域。而且，在某些情況下，我們對按管道、以客戶管理定價的方式也變得更加精明。因此，我相信我們能夠管理好，但我同樣相信，我們在這個業務中獲得可觀利潤的能力不會受到限制——在我們的產品組合中，低利潤和高利潤的 SKU 一直存在差異。假設 BuilderSeries 處於利潤較低的水平，那麼我們產品組合中利潤較高的部分就有很多機會來提高利潤，尤其是在結合更有效率的營運平台的情況下。

Sure. Brad, just quickly on distribution. Any change in terms of the way you're going to approach '24 versus '23 or pretty much the same approach. And from my vantage point, maybe simplistically, maybe a little bit more of a 1 step versus 2 step.

當然。布拉德，簡單談談發行版的問題。你對24年和23年的做法有什麼改變嗎？或者說，你的做法基本上相同。從我的角度來看，可能更簡單一點，可能更像一步一步來，而不是兩步。

Yes. George, you know we've talked about, we have set up DCs and some major metropolitan areas to provide more of a direct model. That is largely driven by the focus on the builder, though other customers benefit off that as well. So I would say that is not new for '24, it was new for '23. But we will continue to focus on optimizing that and pushing volume through that more direct path.

是的。喬治，你知道我們之前討論過，我們在一些主要大都市地區設立了配送中心，以提供更直接的模式。這主要是因為專注於建築商，儘管其他客戶也從中受益。所以我認為這對2024年來說並不新鮮，對2023年來說卻是新鮮事。但我們將繼續專注於優化配送中心，並透過更直接的管道來提升銷售量。

And we're only doing that to be more efficient -- in delivering more efficient from a cost standpoint and responsiveness, delivering product into strategic customers that need that level of service and honestly and some cost advantage, but that -- but as we look into 2024, no major changes in the way we're going to market other than continued growth in that more direct selling model.

我們這樣做只是為了提高效率——從成本和響應的角度提高效率，將產品交付給需要這種服務水平的戰略客戶，說實話，還有一些成本優勢，但是——但是，展望 2024 年，除了更直接的銷售模式繼續增長之外，我們的營銷方式不會發生重大變化。

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Paul Quinn with RBC Capital Markets.

稍等片刻，我們下一個問題將由加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的保羅·奎因（Paul Quinn）提出。

It sounds like the 2 big levers to run a successful Siding operation or this penetration of the big builders and the rollout of ExpertFinish. So just on the big builders, is there -- just so I can kind of increase my knowledge on what you're doing on BuildersSeries, is there a regional penetration difference? Like are you making more gains in the South than the Northeast? And in terms of the manufacturing of that product, is that done at all of your Siding mills or only a couple?

聽起來，成功經營Siding業務的兩大關鍵在於對大型建築商的滲透以及ExpertFinish的推出。那麼，就大型建商而言，為了進一步了解您在BuildersSeries上的工作，請問不同地區的滲透率是否有差異？例如，您在南部地區的收益是否比東北部更大？至於該產品的生產，您所有的Siding工廠都生產該產品嗎？還是只有幾家工廠生產？

On the manufacturing side Paul, it's done in our 24-foot press mills, Dawson Creek, British Columbia being primarily where we're sourcing it now. Sagola will have that capability -- or does have that capability. Obviously, a little bit closer to market there as well, which will help on the cost of margin side. But it's the most recent prices that we have converted, which are 24 foot in length because that -- to remind everybody the BuilderSeries is 12 foot, our normal lap SKU historically has been 16. Okay.

在製造方面，保羅，它是在我們位於不列顛哥倫比亞省道森克里克的24英尺壓機廠完成的，目前我們主要從那裡採購。 Sagola將擁有這種能力——或者說確實擁有這種能力。顯然，它也更接近那裡的市場，這將有助於降低成本和利潤。但我們換算的最新價格是24英尺長，因為－－提醒大家，BuilderSeries的長度是12英尺，而我們以往的常規搭接SKU（單板SKU）是16英尺。好的。

And then you asked about penetration. Well, with the big national builders, you have to go where they are, and if you look at the smile of the country, that's where a lot of the housing starts that are being driven by the big national builders that are in that smile.

然後你問到滲透率的問題。嗯，對於大型全國性建築商來說，你必須去他們所在的地方。如果你看看這個國家的笑容，你會發現很多房屋開工都是由那些在笑容中綻放的大型全國性建築商所推動的。

We have had historically good -- pretty good penetration in Texas, Colorado markets, but just because of a SmartSide's history there. So where we're focused on penetration, it'd be the more South Central, Southeast Atlantic seaboard as opportunities for us to really gain market share.

我們在德克薩斯州和科羅拉多州市場的滲透率一直都很好——相當不錯，但這只是因為SmartSide在那裡的歷史。因此，我們專注於滲透的區域是中南部和東南大西洋沿岸地區，這對我們來說是真正獲得市場份額的機會。

And just to round out that question, Paul. I would say from the central part of the country, we have been strong there, even with our 16-foot product offering with the bigger builders. So obviously, we're -- that would be a sweet spot for us to pick up incremental business, but the big potential opportunities for us to gain volume is in South Central, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.

保羅，我來補充一下這個問題。我想說，在美國中部地區，我們的業務一直很強勁，即使我們向大型建築商提供16英尺的產品。所以顯然，那裡是我們獲得增量業務的最佳地點，但我們獲得銷售的巨大潛在機會在於中南部、東南部和中大西洋地區。

Okay. That's great. Just on the ExpertFinish side or R & R, how should we think about that progression margin uplift in volume through that? Is that -- do you expect that to be slow and steady gains through '24 into '25?

好的。太好了。就ExpertFinish或R&R而言，我們該如何看待由此帶來的銷售成長？您是否預計2024年至2025年期間銷售量會緩慢且穩定地成長？

Yes. It's probably more slow and steady than big bang other than to say and we -- what finishing line we've put in to Bath, which we put a similar line into our existing facility in Green Bay. We are seeing economies of scale. That's the right term that are exceeding expectations. And so as we ramp those up, there will be somewhat of a step change in margin. I think by the time you run it through all the Siding that we sell in the quarter, it might be a little bit harder to see but it's common. And as we learn how to do this at scale, and we just see a lot of opportunity for incremental margin above the decent margins we're enjoying today.

是的。除了我們在巴斯工廠投入的成品線，以及我們在綠灣現有工廠投入的類似生產線之外，這或許更像緩慢而穩健的進程，而不是一蹴而就。我們正在看到規模經濟效應。用「超出預期」來形容規模經濟，再恰當不過了。因此，隨著規模經濟的提升，利潤率將會出現一定程度的階躍變動。我認為，如果將本季我們銷售的所有壁板都納入考量，可能會更難看出這一點，但這很常見。隨著我們學習如何大規模地做到這一點，我們看到了在目前可觀的利潤率之上，還有很大的提升利潤率的機會。

Okay. And then just lastly, if you could -- South America looked a little weak in the quarter, what can we expect going forward?

好的。最後，如果您能…南美洲在本季看起來有點疲軟，我們對未來有何期待？

Yes. That's -- South America right now, it's a good solid business economically across that whole continent. Unfortunately, right now, there's a lot of political and economic unrest. So we are winning where we can, there's no alarms from a market share standpoint. I mean, honestly, from kind of it's chaotic, it might be a little bit too strong of a lower, but the chaotic economies down there are kind of discouraging import volumes there. So from that standpoint, that's been a little bit helpful.

是的。目前南美洲市場經濟狀況良好，整個大陸都保持著穩健的勢頭。可惜的是，目前政治和經濟局勢動盪。所以我們正在盡力爭取勝利，從市場佔有率的角度來看，沒有什麼值得擔憂的。說實話，雖然那裡比較混亂，但低迷的市場可能有點過於強勁，但那裡混亂的經濟狀況確實抑制了進口量。所以從這個角度來看，這多少有點幫助。

The pricing is really challenging in all the countries there. We have taken a significant capacity outages across our operations down there. And so we are pedaling really hard to hold our own in South America, waiting for all that to term, which in our 25 years down there, it's been that way a little bit cyclical economies -- can get out of kilter, and that's certainly happening right now.

南美所有國家的定價都極具挑戰性。我們在那裡的業務遭遇了嚴重的產能中斷。因此，我們正在竭盡全力維持在南美的市場份額，等待這一切結束。在我們在那裡的25年裡，經濟週期性波動可能會失衡，而這種情況現在肯定正在發生。

So we're optimistic on the long term, but I think we should be thinking about next year being somewhat similar to this year as far as the earnings potential down there as we walk through these economic headwinds that are facing basically all the economies we operate in down there.

因此，我們對長期持樂觀態度，但我認為，當我們克服基本上所有我們在那裡開展業務的經濟體都面臨的經濟逆風時，我們應該認為明年的盈利潛力與今年有些相似。

Can I add one other thing at the risk of opening can of worms, we did transfer Entekra's assets to South America and the cost of transferring and packing, shipping and everything is noncapitalizable, if you're interested. And therefore, the cost of doing so is reflected in the EBITDA. That's $2 million to $3 million in Q3 that was a quote I use the traditional freight that a one-off that we left it in their EBITDA because the corporation is always moving equipment about as a whole. So there's no reason not to include an EBITDA. So that put -- made a top environment appear slightly worse than it really is.

我可以補充一點，儘管這可能會引發一些爭議，但我們確實將Entekra的資產轉移到了南美，轉移、包裝、運輸等所有成本都是不可資本化的，如果你感興趣的話。因此，這樣做的成本反映在EBITDA中。第三季的報價是200萬到300萬美元，我使用的是傳統的一次性運費，我們把它留在了EBITDA中，因為公司總是在整體上移動設備。所以沒有理由不包括EBITDA。這樣一來，頂級環境看起來比實際情況略差。

Thank you. That concludes today's question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Aaron Howald for any closing remarks.

謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。現在，我想將發言權交還給Aaron Howald先生，請他做最後發言。

Okay. Thank you, operator. With no further questions, we'll end the call there. Thank you for joining LP for our third quarter earnings call. Stay safe, and we look forward to connecting again soon. Thanks, everyone.

好的。謝謝接線生。沒有其他問題了，本次通話就此結束。感謝您參加LP的第三季財報電話會議。請您注意安全，期待很快再次與您聯繫。謝謝大家。

Thank you all for participating. This concludes today's program. You may now disconnect.

感謝各位的參與。今天的節目到此結束。現在可以斷開連線了。