Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q4 2022 Louisiana-Pacific Corporation Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference call is being recorded. I would like to turn the conference over today to Aaron Howald, Vice President, Investor Relations.

謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加 2022 年第四季度 Louisiana-Pacific Corporation 收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的電話會議正在錄製中。我想將今天的會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Aaron Howald。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. And thank you for joining us to discuss LP's results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2022 as well as our updated outlook for the first quarter of 2023. As the operator said, my name is Aaron Howald, and I am LP's Vice President of Investor Relations and Business Development. I'm joined this morning by Brad Southern, LP's Chief Executive Officer; and Alan Haughie, LP's Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，運營商。大家，早安。並感謝您加入我們討論 LP 2022 年第四季度和全年的業績以及我們對 2023 年第一季度的最新展望。正如運營商所說，我的名字是 Aaron Howald，我是 LP 的副總裁投資者關係和業務發展。今天早上，LP 的首席執行官 Brad Southern 加入了我的行列； LP 的首席財務官 Alan Haughie。

During this morning's conference call and podcast, we will refer to an accompanying presentation that is available on LP's IR web page, which is investor.lpcorp.com. Our 8-K filing is also available there along with our earnings press release and other materials. Today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial metrics, as described on Slides 2 and 3 of the earnings presentation. Rather than reading these statements, I incorporate them herein by reference. The appendix of the presentation also contains reconciliations that are further supplemented by this morning's 8-K filing. And with that, I will turn the call over to Brad.

在今天上午的電話會議和播客中，我們將參考 LP 的 IR 網頁 investor.lpcorp.com 上提供的隨附演示文稿。我們的 8-K 文件以及我們的收益新聞稿和其他材料也可以在那裡獲得。今天的討論將包含前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 財務指標，如收益演示文稿的幻燈片 2 和 3 中所述。我沒有閱讀這些陳述，而是通過引用將它們併入本文。演示文稿的附錄還包含對賬，今天上午的 8-K 文件進一步補充了對賬。有了這個，我會把電話轉給布拉德。

Thanks, Aaron. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining LP's conference call to discuss our fourth quarter and full year results. In 2022, LP's 50th year, we delivered record siding volume and earned $1.4 billion in EBITDA and returned nearly $1 billion to shareholders, including repurchasing 14 million shares. We also invested in our ongoing transformation by completing the conversion of our Houlton, Maine, starting the conversion of Sagola from OSB to Siding and growing our capacity to produce ExpertFinish and structural solutions.

謝謝，亞倫。大家早上好，感謝您參加 LP 的電話會議，討論我們的第四季度和全年業績。 2022 年，LP 成立 50 週年，我們實現了創紀錄的交易量，EBITDA 收入達到 14 億美元，並向股東返還近 10 億美元，包括回購 1400 萬股股票。我們還通過完成緬因州霍爾頓的改造，開始將 Sagola 從 OSB 轉變為壁板，並提高我們生產 ExpertFinish 和結構解決方案的能力，從而投資於我們正在進行的轉型。

In Q4, we grew Siding Solutions net sales by 38% and remain EBITDA positive in OSB despite prices falling to levels not seen since 2019. Another highlight of the year was publishing our second sustainability report inherently carbon-negative products and efficient manufacturing processes, meaning that LPX delivering value to customers, homeowners and shareholders while also positively impacting communities and the environment every day. It was a truly remarkable year, and I want to thank every LP employee whose contributions help make it possible.

在第四季度，儘管價格跌至 2019 年以來的最低水平，我們的壁板解決方案淨銷售額增長了 38%，並且在 OSB 中保持 EBITDA 為正。今年的另一個亮點是發布了我們的第二份可持續發展報告，該報告本質上是負碳產品和高效的製造工藝，這意味著LPX 為客戶、房主和股東帶來價值，同時每天都對社區和環境產生積極影響。那真是不平凡的一年，我要感謝每一位 LP 員工，他們的貢獻使這一切成為可能。

The recent slowdown in housing starts is likely top of mind for most of the audience. So let me address that, starting with a reminder that LP's OSB and Siding businesses have very different relationships with that underlying market. Q4 saw 26% fewer single-family starts than in Q4 of 2021 and single-family starts were down 11% for the full year. LP's OSB segment is closely correlated with new residential construction. As a result, after a remarkable year of cash generation, commodity OSB prices fell to near cash cost in Q4 and as demand slowed to reduce housing starts.

近期房屋開工放緩可能是大多數觀眾最關心的問題。因此，讓我來解決這個問題，首先提醒一下，LP 的 OSB 和 Siding 業務與該基礎市場有著截然不同的關係。與 2021 年第四季度相比，第四季度單戶住宅開工量減少了 26%，全年單戶住宅開工量下降了 11%。 LP 的 OSB 部門與新住宅建設密切相關。因此，在經歷了非凡的現金生成年之後，商品 OSB 價格在第 4 季度跌至接近現金成本，並且需求放緩導致房屋開工率下降。

We responded with disciplined management of capacity and exceptional execution by our sales team, which allowed the OSB segment to earn $13 million in EBITDA which is above our algorithmic guidance given how far prices fell. LP Siding segment, on the other hand, is more specialized, has no connection to commodity prices and has significantly more diverse channels and end users with only about 40% of signing volume going to new residential construction, and we think SmartSide is the best siding product available.

我們通過嚴格的產能管理和銷售團隊的出色執行來應對，這使得 OSB 部門的 EBITDA 收入達到 1300 萬美元，這高於我們根據價格下跌幅度計算的算法指導。另一方面，LP Siding 部分更專業，與商品價格無關，渠道和終端用戶更加多樣化，只有約 40% 的簽約量用於新住宅建設，我們認為 SmartSide 是最好的壁板產品可用。

As a result, Siding has consistently outperformed the underlying housing market with net sales increasing by 38% in the fourth quarter and by 26% for the full year. In the fourth quarter, our side and distribution customers continue to order, but some of their customers' pulls slowed. This resulted in an inventory build in the channel of which we were unaware until late December due to the time lag inherent in a managed order file. By quarter end, therefore, most SmartSide products has finally caught up to customer demand bringing lead times and inventories back to more seasonably normal levels.

因此，Siding 的表現一直優於基礎房地產市場，第四季度淨銷售額增長 38%，全年增長 26%。四季度，我方和分銷客戶繼續接單，但他們部分客戶拉動放緩。由於託管訂單文件固有的時間滯後，這導致渠道中的庫存增加，直到 12 月下旬我們才意識到這一點。因此，到季度末，大多數 SmartSide 產品終於趕上了客戶需求，將交貨時間和庫存恢復到更季節性的正常水平。

Alan will talk more about that in the guidance section. Looking back, single-family starts grew by 14% from 2020 to 2021, then fell by 11% in 2022, ending essentially flat over 2 years. Over that same 2-year period, we have grown Siding Solutions revenue by more than 50%. Siding is not immune to a housing slowdown, but it has consistently outperformed the underlying market. We are confident this trend will continue as we execute our strategy to grow and take share by focusing on repair remodel markets and driving product innovation.

艾倫將在指導部分詳細討論這一點。回顧過去，單戶住宅開工率從 2020 年到 2021 年增長了 14%，然後在 2022 年下降了 11%，兩年間基本持平。在同一 2 年期間，我們的壁板解決方案收入增長了 50% 以上。賽丁也不能倖免於房地產市場放緩，但它的表現一直優於基礎市場。我們相信，隨著我們通過專注於維修改造市場和推動產品創新來執行我們的增長和份額戰略，這一趨勢將繼續下去。

Let me talk a bit about LP's view of the current market and how we are navigating it. Consensus for total U.S. housing starts for 2023 is around $1.25 million or 20% lower than 2022, although data released last week was a bit better than this. Most observers expect the housing market will strengthen in the back half of the year implying that Q1 could see housing starts fall by more than 20% compared to 2022. There is significant uncertainty in housing and R&R markets at the moment particularly with regard to interest rates and affordability.

讓我談談 LP 對當前市場的看法以及我們如何駕馭它。儘管上周公布的數據略好於此，但普遍認為 2023 年美國房屋開工總額約為 125 萬美元，即比 2022 年低 20%。大多數觀察家預計房地產市場將在今年下半年走強，這意味著與 2022 年相比，第一季度的房屋開工率可能下降 20% 以上。目前，房地產和 R&R 市場存在很大的不確定性，尤其是在利率方面和負擔能力。

As a result of this near-term uncertainty, we are seeing softer demand in Siding and OSB. But I want to reinforce that LP's strategy is not simply to wait for strong housing starts for high commodity OSB prices. Our strategy is to grow SmartSide, grow expert finish, grow our exposure in R&R, grow our portfolio of structural solutions and expand our rates geographically. We will continue to execute on our strategy because we have shown that it delivers value. This strategy is the reason why siding has gained share and consistently outperformed the housing market.

由於這種近期的不確定性，我們看到 Siding 和 OSB 的需求疲軟。但我想強調的是，LP 的策略不僅僅是等待高商品 OSB 價格的強勁房屋開工。我們的戰略是發展 SmartSide，發展專家完成，增加我們在 R&R 的曝光率，增加我們的結構解決方案組合，並在地理上擴大我們的費率。我們將繼續執行我們的戰略，因為我們已經證明它可以帶來價值。這種策略是壁板獲得份額並始終跑贏房地產市場的原因。

As we have said before, we have more than enough flexibility in our production plans and capital projects to respond effectively to short-term weakness and more than sufficient liquidity to continue investing for long-term growth in Siding and Structural Solutions. In the long run, fundamentals remain very strong with demographics and structural undersupply as tailwinds for new construction and aging housing stock supporting R&R growth.

正如我們之前所說，我們在生產計劃和資本項目中有足夠的靈活性來有效應對短期疲軟，也有足夠的流動性來繼續投資於壁板和結構解決方案的長期增長。從長遠來看，基本面仍然非常強勁，人口結構和結構性供應不足是新建築和老齡住房存量支持 R&R 增長的順風。

LP repriced the short-term gap from taking against market downside while preserving our ability to benefit when the housing market regains its footing. And we'll do it by executing our strategy with disciplined operations and capital allocation. And with that, I will turn it over to Alan to discuss our financial results for the quarter and an update on our capital allocation strategy.

LP 重新定價短期缺口，以應對市場下行，同時保持我們在房地產市場重新站穩腳跟時受益的能力。我們將通過有紀律的運營和資本配置來執行我們的戰略來做到這一點。有了這個，我將把它交給艾倫來討論我們本季度的財務業績和我們資本配置戰略的最新情況。

Thanks, Brad. I'll spend a few minutes reviewing the LP's performance for the fourth quarter and full year, and then I'll discuss the current market environment and its impact on our near-term outlook. Slide 7 shows sizing growth compared to housing starts on a trailing 12-month basis. As Brad mentioned, the disconnect was even more pronounced in the fourth quarter. The pie chart to the right show the mix of the most specialized siding products, primarily ExpertFinish (inaudible) shapes. Although the percentage of total volume shrunk by one percentage point, this is an artifact of the exceptional 20% growth of overall volume, which was admittedly magnified by the soft comp.

謝謝，布拉德。我將花幾分鐘回顧有限合夥人第四季度和全年的業績，然後我將討論當前的市場環境及其對我們近期前景的影響。幻燈片 7 顯示了過去 12 個月與房屋開工相比的規模增長。正如布拉德所提到的，這種脫節在第四節更加明顯。右側的餅圖顯示了最專業的壁板產品的組合，主要是 ExpertFinish（聽不清）形狀。儘管總成交量的百分比縮小了一個百分點，但這是總成交量異常增長 20% 的產物，無可否認，這一增長被 soft comp 放大了。

Resulting from a press rebuild in the fourth quarter of 2021. ExpertFinish revenue grew by 65% year-over-year. Slide ensures the quarter for signing in more detail. The story is a fairly simple one. List price increases and favorable mix drove net prices 15% higher, while volume grew by 20%. These 2 factors added $70 million to EBITDA. The inflation of raw materials and freight costs for conversions and increased selling and marketing produced a $32 million headwind. In other words, the EBITDA gain from growth was double the negative impact of inflation and investments in future growth. The resulting EBITDA margin increased by 6 points to 23%, again, in a quarter on single-family housing starts fell by 26%. (inaudible) tells a similar story for the full year. 14% higher prices and 11% volume growth added $212 million of EBITDA, partially offset by $31 million of discretionary investments, meaning no conversion costs and selling and marketing.

由於 2021 年第四季度的印刷機重建。ExpertFinish 收入同比增長 65%。 Slide 確保了用於更詳細簽名的季度。這個故事是一個相當簡單的故事。目錄價格上漲和有利的組合推動淨價上漲 15%，而銷量增長 20%。這兩個因素使 EBITDA 增加了 7000 萬美元。原材料和運輸成本的上漲以及銷售和營銷的增加產生了 3200 萬美元的逆風。換句話說，增長帶來的 EBITDA 收益是通貨膨脹和未來增長投資的負面影響的兩倍。由此產生的 EBITDA 利潤率增加了 6 個百分點，達到 23%，在一個季度內，單戶住宅開工率再次下降了 26%。 （聽不清）講述了全年的類似故事。 14% 的價格上漲和 11% 的銷量增長增加了 2.12 億美元的 EBITDA，部分被 3100 萬美元的可自由支配投資所抵消，這意味著沒有轉換成本以及銷售和營銷。

And after $122 million of inflation, EBITDA was $50 million higher than the prior year for a full year EBITDA margin of 23%. On many year with 2 press rebuilds, significant inflation and 11% lower single-family starts. The OSB charts on Pages 10 and 11 are dominated by the impact of falling OSB prices and rising raw material costs. The volume reduction is caused by market containment late in the quarter resulted in $61 million of lower EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2021, $11 million from commodity OSB and $50 million from higher-priced structural solutions.

在扣除 1.22 億美元的通貨膨脹後，EBITDA 比上一年高出 5000 萬美元，全年 EBITDA 利潤率為 23%。多年以來，有 2 次壓機重建、嚴重的通貨膨脹和 11% 的單戶住宅開工率下降。第 10 頁和第 11 頁的 OSB 圖表主要受到 OSB 價格下跌和原材料成本上漲的影響。銷量減少是由於本季度末的市場遏制導致 2021 年第四季度 EBITDA 減少 6100 萬美元，商品定向刨花板減少 1100 萬美元，價格較高的結構解決方案減少 5000 萬美元。

There was a $14 million hit from inflation, mostly raw materials and a $10 million impact from inventory devaluation. Despite this, higher price realization resulted in the OSB segment outperforming our alogrithmic guidance and generating $30 million of EBITDA. While the full year award to fall on Page 11 is again dominated by price inflation, I do want to highlight that the $65 million of increased EBITDA from Structural Solutions growth more than offset the $41 million impact from lower commodity volumes. This shows the incremental margin impact of the higher value-add Structural Solutions products. And so these 4 slides are LP's transformation strategy in a nutshell.

通貨膨脹造成 1400 萬美元的損失，主要是原材料，庫存貶值造成 1000 萬美元的影響。儘管如此，更高的價格實現導致 OSB 部門的表現優於我們的算法指導並產生了 3000 萬美元的 EBITDA。雖然第 11 頁的全年獎勵再次受到價格上漲的影響，但我確實想強調的是，結構解決方案增長帶來的 6500 萬美元 EBITDA 增加抵消了商品銷量下降帶來的 4100 萬美元影響。這顯示了附加值更高的結構解決方案產品對增量利潤的影響。因此，這 4 張幻燈片簡而言之就是 LP 的轉型戰略。

OSB prices ebb and flow outside our control, we generate significant amounts of cash when demand and prices are high, and we manage our production capacity with discipline and focus on demand end. Siding on the other hand, is our growth and value creation engine specialized products, steady prices and a long runway for continued growth well above the underlying market.

OSB 價格起伏不在我們的控制範圍內，當需求和價格高時，我們會產生大量現金，並且我們會嚴格管理我們的產能並專注於需求端。另一方面，支持我們的增長和價值創造引擎的專業產品、穩定的價格和遠高於基礎市場的持續增長的漫長跑道。

Slide 12 shows a very high level roll forward for the revenue and EBITDA for the quarter OSB price drops reduced revenue by $120 million. This was almost completely offset by $105 million or 38% of saving growth, a remarkable accomplishment for the siding team. OSB market curtailment and the losses for [Gola's] OSB capacity further reduced revenue by $37 million and $19 million, respectively, partly offset by $13 million from increased commodity OSB volume. Mostly due to (inaudible) ramp-up. LPSA, et cetera and inserting else saw revenues for (inaudible) combined $22 million. The EBITDA story in the right-hand column is similar other than the call out in North America, some of what we can control, specifically siding growth, Structural Solutions growth and OSB volume netted a $37 million positive EBITDA contribution. It was not enough, however, to offset falling OSB prices and inflationary pressures with the result that LP delivered $100 million in EBITDA in the quarter, lower than the prior year quarter by $178 million.

幻燈片 12 顯示了本季度 OSB 價格下降的收入和 EBITDA 的非常高水平的前滾，使收入減少了 1.2 億美元。這幾乎完全被 1.05 億美元或 38% 的儲蓄增長所抵消，這對支持團隊來說是一項了不起的成就。 OSB 市場縮減和 [Gola] OSB 產能的損失分別進一步減少了 3700 萬美元和 1900 萬美元的收入，部分被商品 OSB 產量增加的 1300 萬美元所抵消。主要是由於（聽不清）加速。 LPSA 等以及插入其他內容（聽不清）的收入總計 2200 萬美元。右側欄中的 EBITDA 故事與北美的呼聲類似，我們可以控制的一些內容，特別是壁板增長、結構解決方案增長和 OSB 銷量淨賺了 3700 萬美元的正 EBITDA 貢獻。然而，這不足以抵消 OSB 價格下跌和通貨膨脹壓力，LP 在本季度實現了 1 億美元的 EBITDA，比去年同期減少了 1.78 億美元。

Slide 13 provides the same analysis for the full year for revenue of $456 million of growth more than offset the impact of falling OSB prices. For EBITDA, the growth of Siding and Structural Solutions produced $294 million of EBITDA compared to 2021. Other than OSB prices, this $294 million was almost enough to offset the combined impact of inflation, the cost of mill conversions. so goal is Q4 outage for conversion to signing, LPSAs EBITDA drop and everything else besides.

幻燈片 13 對全年 4.56 億美元的收入增長進行了相同的分析，這大大抵消了 OSB 價格下跌的影響。對於 EBITDA，與 2021 年相比，壁板和結構解決方案的增長產生了 2.94 億美元的 EBITDA。除 OSB 價格外，這 2.94 億美元幾乎足以抵消通貨膨脹和工廠轉換成本的綜合影響。所以目標是第四季度中斷以轉換為簽名，LPSA 的 EBITDA 下降以及除此之外的所有其他內容。

Page 14 of the presentation shows cash flows for the quarter and full year. We began the quarter with $482 million in cash. Operating cash flow of $41 million is the net result of $100 million of EBITDA plus $29 million in working capital decreases, less $78 million in taxes. The fourth quarter saw heavy CapEx spending of $133 million, mostly on Sagola siding conversion and Green Bay expert finish expansion. And after $16 million of dividends and a few other things, our cash balance fell by $99 million, ending the year at $383 million. Finally, if you look at the P&L account on Page 17 of the presentation, you will see an $82 million nonoperating charge in the quarter. This includes a $78 million noncash charge resulting from the settlement of our defined contribution pension plan.

演示文稿的第 14 頁顯示了本季度和全年的現金流量。我們在本季度開始時擁有 4.82 億美元的現金。 4,100 萬美元的運營現金流是 1 億美元的 EBITDA 加上 2,900 萬美元的營運資本減少，減去 7,800 萬美元的稅收後的淨結果。第四季度資本支出高達 1.33 億美元，主要用於 Sagola 壁板轉換和 Green Bay 專家完成擴建。在支付了 1600 萬美元的股息和其他一些東西之後，我們的現金餘額減少了 9900 萬美元，到年底為 3.83 億美元。最後，如果您查看演示文稿第 17 頁的損益表，您將看到該季度有 8200 萬美元的非運營費用。這包括因結算我們的固定供款養老金計劃而產生的 7800 萬美元的非現金費用。

This charge is omitted from EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share. And with that, let me move on to the current market dynamics and how LP's strategy helps us respond before transitioning to guidance. As Brad described, and as you all know, there is significant uncertainty in the housing market LP is investing in growth for smart size as per finished structural solutions to meet customer demand. As we said before, we have significant flexibility to delay the timing of capacity expansion projects should we anticipate that current market softness is likely to continue.

此費用已從 EBITDA 和調整後的每股收益中扣除。就此，讓我繼續談談當前的市場動態，以及 LP 的戰略如何幫助我們在過渡到指導之前做出回應。正如布拉德所描述的那樣，眾所周知，房地產市場存在很大的不確定性，LP 正在根據完成的結構解決方案投資於智能規模的增長，以滿足客戶需求。正如我們之前所說，如果我們預計當前的市場疲軟可能會持續下去，我們有很大的靈活性來推遲產能擴張項目的時間。

However, we also have more than enough liquidity to withstand the temporary reduction in cash flow that reduced customer demand would imply. LP will continue to manage its mills and discipline to meet customer demand. In signing, we are working through the inventory digestion that as a company that transitioned from a managed order file and all indications are that inventory is now slowing naturally. In OSB, just as we took market downtime at the end of the quarter, we are constantly assessing customer demand, mill inventories and OSB prices to balance supply and demand. I'm confident that this strategy will allow us to manage this period of decreased demand which I hope and expect is temporary with the agility to respond up or down as the market evolves.

然而，我們也有足夠的流動性來承受客戶需求減少所暗示的現金流暫時減少。 LP 將繼續管理其工廠和紀律以滿足客戶需求。在簽約時，我們正在努力消化庫存，作為一家從管理訂單文件過渡的公司，所有跡像都表明庫存現在正在自然放緩。在 OSB 方面，正如我們在本季度末市場停工一樣，我們不斷評估客戶需求、工廠庫存和 OSB 價格以平衡供需。我相信，這一戰略將使我們能夠管理這段需求下降的時期，我希望這是暫時的，並且能夠隨著市場的發展靈活地做出反應。

Our capital allocation strategy remains unchanged, though the timing is somewhat cash flow dependent. As a reminder, that strategy is to first on the cash then to invest in growth and only then to return the remainder to stockholders via dividends and share repurchases. In the fourth quarter, as OSB prices and cash flow fell, we did not repurchase any shares, leaving our share count at about $72 million. We have a remaining Board authorization for $200 million of repurchases and consistent with our belief that our shares are undervalued, cash flow allows will be back in the market.

我們的資本配置策略保持不變，儘管時機在一定程度上取決於現金流。提醒一下，該策略是首先使用現金，然後投資於增長，然後才通過股息和股票回購將剩餘部分返還給股東。第四季度，由於 OSB 價格和現金流下降，我們沒有回購任何股票，因此我們的股票數量約為 7200 萬美元。我們還有 2 億美元回購的剩餘董事會授權，並且與我們認為我們的股票被低估的信念一致，現金流允許將回到市場。

In terms of liquidity, we retained a $550 million undrawn revolver. We have $350 million of long-term debt at 3.625% during 6 years. We intend to protect this very strong balance sheet but use it to execute our strategy. While 2023 is shaping up to be a year of negative cash flow -- at least at the current housing consensus and OSB prices, we will manage our CapEx and balance sheet with appropriate discipline. For the first quarter, as Brad mentioned, we expect inventory digestion following our transition from a managed or final signing with the result that revenue for siding Solutions is expected to be flat to 5% lower than the first quarter of 2022, with price increases roughly offsetting lower volumes.

在流動性方面，我們保留了 5.5 億美元的未動用左輪手槍。我們在 6 年內有 3.5 億美元的長期債務，利率為 3.625%。我們打算保護這個非常強大的資產負債表，但用它來執行我們的戰略。雖然 2023 年將成為負現金流的一年——至少在當前的住房共識和 OSB 價格下，我們將以適當的紀律管理我們的資本支出和資產負債表。對於第一季度，正如 Brad 提到的那樣，我們預計在我們從託管或最終簽約過渡後會消化庫存，因此 sided Solutions 的收入預計將持平至比 2022 年第一季度低 5%，價格大致上漲抵消了較低的銷量。

In OSB, assuming prices remain constant at the level published classified by random length, OSB revenue would be down by about 20% sequentially from fourth quarter levels. With OSB prices at these levels, please bear in mind that LP's now [given] the guidance for OSB revenue reflects currently plant capacity reductions taken to match production to customer demand. And all of these factors would result in a first quarter EBITDA of at least $35 million. Now given the current uncertainty in the market with regard to full year housing and repair and remodel demand, it's difficult to offer accurate full year guidance residing revenue growth.

在定向刨花板中，假設價格保持在公佈的按隨機長度分類的水平不變，定向刨花板收入將比第四季度水平連續下降約 20%。對於這些水平的 OSB 價格，請記住 LP 現在 [給出] OSB 收入的指導反映了當前為使生產與客戶需求相匹配而採取的工廠產能削減。所有這些因素將導致第一季度的 EBITDA 至少達到 3500 萬美元。現在，鑑於目前市場對全年住房和維修改造需求的不確定性，很難提供準確的全年居住收入增長指導。

However, we are confident that the Siding segment will outperform the underlying market by a substantial margin. But since the underlying market itself is difficult to predict, we're going to hold off for offering meaningful guidance until our next earnings call by which point we expect to have greater clarity. Similarly, for full year CapEx guidance, we will make the investments necessary to grow and outperform the underlying market. As I said, we have significant flexibility in our CapEx plans and more than enough liquidity to adjust up or down as we gain more data about customer demand. And now I'd like to hand it back to Brad for some closing comments.

然而，我們相信 Siding 板塊的表現將大大優於基礎市場。但由於基礎市場本身難以預測，我們將推遲提供有意義的指導，直到我們的下一次財報電話會議，屆時我們預計會更加清晰。同樣，對於全年資本支出指導，我們將進行必要的投資以實現增長並跑贏基礎市場。正如我所說，我們的資本支出計劃具有很大的靈活性，並且隨著我們獲得更多有關客戶需求的數據，我們有足夠的流動性來上下調整。現在我想把它交還給 Brad，徵求一些結束意見。

Thanks, Alan. As Alan detailed, we are working through the effects of catching up the Siding order file, and we are managing OSB capacity to match current market demand. I don't want to minimize the near-term challenges these factors present as we enter a period of softer housing starts. The market is still quite uncertain in housing starts and R&R activity have never been easy to predict. However, there are a few things we are very confident about.

謝謝，艾倫。正如 Alan 詳述的那樣，我們正在研究追趕 Siding 訂單文件的影響，並且我們正在管理 OSB 產能以滿足當前市場需求。當我們進入一個較軟的住房開工期時，我不想將這些因素帶來的近期挑戰最小化。市場在房屋開工方面仍然相當不確定，R&R 活動從來都不容易預測。然而，有幾件事我們非常有信心。

First, there is a structural undersupply of homes in the U.S. This undersupply must eventually be resolved. Second, the age of the average house in the U.S. suggests a very long runway for growth in R&R. And third, we know that we have the best products and team in the industry. LP siding segment has a long history of outperforming the underlying market and gaining share, and that will continue. And we will manage our OSB capacity our CapEx plans and our balance sheet with discipline so that we can continue to outperform the market and deliver results for our shareholders.

首先，美國的房屋存在結構性供應不足的問題。這種供應不足的問題最終必須得到解決。其次，美國普通房屋的年齡表明 R&R 的增長還有很長的路要走。第三，我們知道我們擁有業內最好的產品和團隊。 LP 壁板部分在跑贏基礎市場和獲得份額方面有著悠久的歷史，而且這種情況將繼續下去。我們將嚴格管理我們的 OSB 容量、我們的資本支出計劃和我們的資產負債表，以便我們能夠繼續跑贏市場並為我們的股東帶來成果。

2022 was an incredible year. 2023 has started with market conditions different than what we have experienced in the past 2.5 years. However, we are not resting on the laurels as we bring our first 50 years to a close, I have never been more confident that LP will build on our record of growth, innovation and sustainability to deliver shareholder value in our next 50 years. And with that, we will be happy to take your questions

2022 年是不可思議的一年。 2023 年以不同於我們過去 2.5 年經歷的市場條件開始。然而，當我們結束第一個 50 年時，我們並沒有滿足於現狀，我從未像現在這樣堅信 LP 將在我們的增長、創新和可持續發展記錄的基礎上，在未來 50 年中為股東創造價值。因此，我們很樂意回答您的問題

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our first question today will be coming from George Staphos of Bank of America.

謝謝。 （操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題將來自美國銀行的 George Staphos。

Brad, Alan, I know it's difficult, but is there a way to assess for us what your production stance is right now in siding relative to takeaway. Are you still -- I'm assuming producing at a lower rate relative to demand just to clear inventories? Or are you now -- have you largely gone through that and you're producing as far as you can tell, pretty much in line with takeaway.

布拉德、艾倫，我知道這很困難，但有沒有辦法為我們評估你們目前的生產立場相對於外賣的立場。您是否仍然 - 我假設生產率相對於需求較低只是為了清理庫存？或者你現在 - 你是否已經基本上經歷了這些並且你正在生產你所知道的，幾乎與外賣一致。

And in terms of first quarter, thank you for the guidance points, recognizing it's very difficult given all the moving parts and the volatility related to pricing with OSB. Is there a way for you to give us a bit more color in terms of how you see OSB and siding stacking up in that more than $35 million guidance.

就第一季度而言，感謝您的指導點，認識到考慮到所有移動部件以及與 OSB 定價相關的波動性，這是非常困難的。在超過 3500 萬美元的指導中，您如何看待 OSB 和壁板堆積，有沒有辦法讓我們更清楚一點。

So George, let me start with the production question around siding. So just keep in mind that Houlton has -- been Houlton line 1 ramped up all through last year and is right at or close to production -- have the capability to produce at full production. We had a governed that volume back a little bit in Houlton as we went into Q4 and the beginning of Q1 well more so actually in Q1. And so we are -- the answer to the question is we're running a siding plants at full production other than Houlton, were we going to have decided to take some capacity out there just to try to match the order pull through a little bit better.

所以喬治，讓我從圍繞壁板的生產問題開始。所以請記住，Houlton 已經 - Houlton 1 號線在去年一直在增加並且正在或接近生產 - 有能力全面生產。當我們進入第 4 季度和第 1 季度開始時，我們在 Houlton 稍微控制了這個數量，實際上在第 1 季度更是如此。所以我們 - 問題的答案是除了 Houlton 之外，我們正在全面生產壁板工廠，我們是否會決定在那裡拿出一些產能來嘗試匹配訂單拉動一點點更好的。

And then the second question, George, was could we give color around the $35 million. Yes. I actually agree with you on that .Bear in mind, please, that the number motor OSB is based predicated out algorithmically on OSB prices of last Friday holding flat. So the $35 million roughly breaks through as follows, rough about $50 million from Siding, about negative $10 million from OSB. And then everything else, including a bit of conservatism, perhaps, LPSA offsetting corporate of minus $5 million. So plus $50 for siding, minus $10 million for OSB, minus $5 million for everything else. $35 million.

然後第二個問題，喬治，我們能否在 3500 萬美元左右給出顏色。是的。我實際上同意你的觀點。請記住，電機 OSB 的數量是基於上週五持平的 OSB 價格通過算法預測出來的。所以這3500萬美元大致突破如下，大概是Siding的5000萬美元左右，OSB的負1000萬美元左右。然後是其他一切，包括一些保守主義，也許是 LPSA 抵消公司負 500 萬美元。所以加上 50 美元的壁板，減去 OSB 的 1000 萬美元，減去 500 萬美元的其他一切。 3500 萬美元。

And the last one, I'll turn it over. You mentioned you have the flexibility to push ahead or delay as needed in terms of your capacity ramp in siding. What will be the key mile markers for you relative to how quickly you go ahead or decide to pull back? One of your peer companies talked about some weakness that we're seeing in repair remodel activity, is that going to be -- whether it's dollars of revenue or commentary out of the big box retailers? What will you be looking to? And what should we be looking at as analysts engaging that?

最後一個，我會把它翻過來。你提到你可以根據需要靈活地推進或延遲你的壁板容量斜坡。相對於你前進或決定後退的速度，你的關鍵里程標記是什麼？您的一家同行公司談到了我們在維修改造活動中看到的一些弱點，這將是——無論是美元收入還是來自大型零售商的評論？你會尋找什麼？作為分析師，我們應該關注什麼？

So George, on the -- let me just say for press production, we're full steam ahead on bringing Sagola up the full year by the end of the year. We see no reason to back off at all and the path forward for Sagola start-up, which added a significant amount of press capacity. Similarly, in Bath, New York, we're full staying ahead on that production for ExpertFinish. And then as we get to the next tier of volume from a press capacity standpoint, that would be hold on line 2 and then various options on ExpertFinish, we'll just be looking at the market as we go through the year, looking at ultimately what we feel like growth will be for this year and apply that well and also look over what we expect for housing the next couple of years.

所以 George，關於——我只想說，對於媒體製作，我們正全力以赴，在年底前將 Sagola 提升到全年。我們認為完全沒有理由退縮，Sagola 初創公司的前進道路已顯著增加了壓機產能。同樣，在紐約巴斯，我們在 ExpertFinish 的製作上完全保持領先。然後，當我們從印刷機容量的角度進入下一個數量級時，將保持在第 2 行，然後是 ExpertFinish 上的各種選項，我們將在這一年中關注市場，最終關注我們認為今年的增長會很好，並且會很好地應用它，還會考慮我們對未來幾年住房的預期。

And those will inform our decision on whether to -- or what kind of pace to continue that capacity expansion. We're still actively involved in engineering and design for ExpertFinish capacity beyond that. And as we've talked about on the call previously, we have begun procurement for different capital components for Houlton Line 2. But we haven't -- we're not -- we haven't delayed anything. We haven't had many decisions on beginning to actually put still on the ground or for foundations. And as we get to the spring and summer, we'll have a better feel for what the market is looking like in the near term, and then we'll govern our capacity spend around the reality of what we're seeing in the order file.

這些將為我們決定是否繼續擴大產能或以何種步伐繼續擴大產能提供信息。除此之外，我們仍在積極參與 ExpertFinish 產能的工程和設計。正如我們之前在電話會議上談到的那樣，我們已經開始為霍爾頓 2 號線採購不同的資本成分。但我們沒有——我們沒有——我們沒有推遲任何事情。我們還沒有做出很多決定，開始真正將靜物放在地面上或作為地基。當我們進入春季和夏季時，我們將更好地了解近期市場的情況，然後我們將圍繞我們在訂單中看到的現實來管理我們的產能支出文件。

(Operator Instructions) And our next question will be coming from Ketan Mamtora of BMO.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題將來自 BMO 的 Ketan Mamtora。

First question, coming back to Siding, Alan, in your prepared remarks, you talked about meaningfully outperforming the broad market. Is that a way to think about either in terms of sensitivity or if there is a better way to think about sort of the degree of out performance or sort of volume growth at different housing starts level?

第一個問題，回到賽丁，艾倫，在你準備好的發言中，你談到了有意義地跑贏大盤。這是一種考慮敏感性的方法，還是有更好的方法來考慮不同房屋開工水平下的表現程度或數量增長？

I'm just trying to understand what is the kind of -- what is the best way to think about volume in the Siding business, recognizing that there is still a lot of uncertainty?

我只是想了解什麼是 - 考慮 Siding 業務量的最佳方式是什麼，認識到仍然存在很多不確定性？

Yes, it's a great question, and it's a very hard question to answer, particularly given that our experience over the last couple of years, we put on a managed to order file. But very high level of sufficiently for periods of time, we believe that we outperform on a revenue basis, the underlying market by let's say, 8 to 10 percentage points of growth. And so a simple way of articulating that. And I say the underlying market, we've only really got one clear marker of the market, and that's single-family housing.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，也是一個很難回答的問題，特別是考慮到我們在過去幾年的經驗，我們放置了一個管理訂單文件。但在一段時間內足夠高的水平，我們相信我們在收入基礎上表現優於基礎市場，比方說，增長 8 到 10 個百分點。這是一種簡單的表達方式。我說的是基礎市場，我們只有一個明確的市場標誌，那就是獨戶住宅。

And so single family housing will, let's say, to be down 10%. And I would argue that we should be able to grow our revenue above that. And that model, you might expect flat revenue year-over-year. Of course, it depends on what and to what extent that's impacted by the housing family housing starts. And I would argue, and I'd like to think that a 10% housing decline, we might actually see some strength in repairment model, and maybe that will be better. So it's flexible, the housing don't necessarily move in tandem, but we use it as a simple working model to 10 points better than the market. However, whatever that market [marker] ends up being -- and we believe we have a long history of all able to do that through market share gains, partly driven by our innovations.

因此，比方說，單戶住宅將下降 10%。我認為我們應該能夠將收入增長到高於此水平。而那個模型，你可能預計收入同比持平。當然，這取決於住房家庭新房開工的影響程度和程度。而且我會爭辯說，我想住房下降 10%，我們實際上可能會看到修復模型的一些優勢，也許會更好。所以它是靈活的，外殼不一定是串聯移動的，但我們將它作為一個簡單的工作模型來使用，比市場好 10 分。然而，無論那個市場 [marker] 最終是什麼——我們相信我們有很長的歷史可以通過市場份額的增加來做到這一點，部分是由我們的創新驅動的。

Got it. No, that's helpful perspective. And Alan, perhaps I missed it. Did you talk about sort of 2023 CapEx guidance?

知道了。不，這是有用的觀點。艾倫，也許我錯過了。您是否談到了某種 2023 年資本支出指南？

No, I didn't quite specifically. And it's very hard to give guidance in -- without being able to discuss it in a sort of open form like this. So last -- I think last couple of quarters, I've guided to -- I said the 2023 will be a figure closer to $500 million. I'm obviously going to lower that guidance a bit. But let me tell you what our working model is as of today, and I'm happy to do that because it indicates that the range. I would say our working model for CapEx. This is not a projection. This is basically describing what we see and the level of flexibility we think would be wise.

不，我沒有說得很具體。如果不能以這樣一種開放的形式進行討論，就很難提供指導。所以最後 - 我認為過去幾個季度，我已經指導過 - 我說 2023 年的數字將接近 5 億美元。我顯然會稍微降低該指導。但是讓我告訴你我們今天的工作模式是什麼，我很樂意這樣做，因為它表明了範圍。我會說我們的資本支出工作模型。這不是預測。這基本上描述了我們所看到的以及我們認為明智的靈活性水平。

Our working model is in the range of $350 million to $450 million of CapEx in 2023. It's hard to say, as Brad said, where that will land because we will use the flexibility that we have. Q1 CapEx will be pretty heavy. I'm willing to quote a number of something like $120 million to $125 million of Q1 CapEx the but that will be fairly heavy. And we have a number of commitments for long lead time items that we intend to play ahead with. And of course, we're creating spilled up. So there's no -- absolutely no slowdown there.

我們的工作模式在 2023 年的資本支出範圍內為 3.5 億至 4.5 億美元。正如布拉德所說，很難說這將落在何處，因為我們將利用我們擁有的靈活性。第一季度資本支出將相當沉重。我願意引用一些類似 1.2 億至 1.25 億美元的第一季度資本支出，但這將是相當沉重的。我們對我們打算提前完成的長交貨期項目有許多承諾。當然，我們正在創造溢出。所以那裡沒有 - 絕對沒有放緩。

Understood. No, that's very helpful. I'll jump back in the queue. Good luck.

明白了。不，這非常有幫助。我會跳回到隊列中。祝你好運。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is coming from Susan Malkari of Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Susan Malkari。

My first question is talking a bit about the pricing environment for Siding. First of all, I guess, can you give us any update on the success that you've seen with that increase that you announced in -- I believe it was late last year, effective in early January. And then in this environment, with volumes moving lower, how do you think about price versus volume?

我的第一個問題是談談 Siding 的定價環境。首先，我想，你能否向我們介紹一下你所宣布的增長所取得的成功——我相信那是去年年底，1 月初生效。然後在這種環境下，隨著交易量下降，您如何看待價格與交易量的關係？

What's the ability to continue to hold the pricing that you've realized? And would you be willing to think about the volume versus price a little differently given where we are from a macro and a housing perspective.

有什麼能力繼續保持你已經實現的定價？鑑於我們從宏觀和住房的角度來看，您是否願意以不同的方式考慮數量與價格。

Susan, for the first question, we were able to implement our price increase January 1. I would say just as consistent with the way we've done it in the past, there could be a little lingering effect through Q1 of realization, but predominantly all of it was accepted in the marketplace. So we have minimal concerns there. And then for the price volume trade-off, generally, siding doesn't work that way. I mean, there's slow pricing in the distribution.

蘇珊，對於第一個問題，我們能夠在 1 月 1 日實施價格上漲。我想說的是，與我們過去的做法一樣，在實現的第一季度可能會有一些揮之不去的影響，但主要是所有這些都被市場接受了。所以我們在那裡的擔憂很小。然後對於價量權衡，一般來說，支持不是那樣的。我的意思是，分銷定價緩慢。

I don't think most siding jobs are a cost play to start with. And so we feel like we're pricing the product equivalent to the value that it warrants in the market and our distribution partners have done a good job of getting that price through the channel. Now I do want to say there is an exception to that and that is around of large national builder deals, which typically do require some back-end rebates.

我不認為大多數支持工作都是從成本開始的。因此，我們覺得我們對產品的定價與其在市場上所保證的價值相當，而且我們的分銷合作夥伴在通過渠道獲得該價格方面做得很好。現在我想說的是，有一個例外，那就是大型國家建築商交易，通常需要一些後端回扣。

And obviously, we're part of that game and we are active in and continuing to process those kind of opportunities now. And that can result in a rebate pattern that ships away at that list price increase for specific customers and for large volume type of deals. But I've got -- I would just say, for the year, we should expect to see by the time we get to the second quarter that January price increase has worked its way into our P&L.

顯然，我們是這場比賽的一部分，我們現在積極參與並繼續處理這些機會。這可能會導致一種回扣模式，即針對特定客戶和大批量交易以該標價上漲的價格發貨。但我有——我只想說，就今年而言，我們應該期望在進入第二季度時看到 1 月份的價格上漲已經影響到我們的損益表。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then turning to the OSB segment. You talked a bit about some production curtailments there. Can you give us more color on some of those locations and how you're thinking about holding production as we think about where pricing may move for OSB through the year?

好的。這很有幫助。然後轉向 OSB 部分。你談到了那裡的一些減產。你能給我們更多關於其中一些地點的顏色嗎？當我們考慮全年 OSB 的價格可能變動時，你是如何考慮生產的？

Yes, Susan, I'm not going to go through mill by mill and talk about what we did. I would say -- I would describe it this way in gen and Q4 was pretty general across our entire system. With downtime that is somewhat easier to do during the holiday season. And so we -- it was a widespread distribution of downtime late in Q4 to try to match demand. And then as we come into the Q1 and everybody comes back from the holidays, it is more targeted around mill cost and including the transportation and so in Q1, the downtime will be a little bit more concentrated, but we'll be taking as needed in order to match demand. Thank you

是的，蘇珊，我不會逐個工廠討論我們所做的事情。我會說——我會在 gen 中這樣描述它，而 Q4 在我們整個系統中非常普遍。有了停機時間，在假期期間更容易做到這一點。因此，我們 - 第四季度末出現廣泛的停機時間分佈，以試圖滿足需求。然後當我們進入第一季度並且每個人都從假期回來時，更多的是圍繞工廠成本，包括運輸等，因此在第一季度，停機時間會更加集中，但我們會根據需要採取為了匹配需求。謝謝

One moment, while we prepare for the next question. Our next question is coming from Mike Roxland of Truist.

一會兒，當我們準備下一個問題時。我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Mike Roxland。

Just on siding, realizing we can give an excess inventory. And as you've mentioned, you've transitioned away from a managed order file I'm just trying to get a sense of what gives you the confidence that siding will continue to grow as the economy softens, home equity value declines, unemployment increases? And the premise of the question is this, you grew the siding business during an economic and housing up cycle, and it really has yet to be stress tested during a down cycle.

就在旁邊，意識到我們可以提供多餘的庫存。正如你所提到的，你已經從一個管理訂單文件過渡了，我只是想了解是什麼讓你相信隨著經濟疲軟、房屋淨值下降、失業率上升，支持將繼續增長？問題的前提是，您在經濟和住房上升週期中發展了壁板業務，而在下降週期中它確實還沒有經過壓力測試。

In addition, R&R likely grew more than normal in the last few years, given work from home people, obviously, during COVID building out [deck] building sheds, other things during the lunch break. So there's a risk that R&R could actually slow more given the backdrop and as consumers choose to focus on, let's say, on more small ticket items. I'm just trying to get a sense of how you're framing signing in the current environment.

此外，在過去幾年裡，R&R 的增長可能超過正常水平，因為家庭成員的工作，顯然，在 COVID 建造 [甲板] 建築棚屋期間，以及午休期間的其他事情。因此，在這種背景下，隨著消費者選擇關注更多的小票商品，R&R 實際上可能會放緩更多的風險。我只是想了解您是如何在當前環境中構建簽名的。

Yes. So Michael, so you the risk that you described around just some kind of macro R&R spend is real. And then we -- as we talked about in our prepared remarks, the outlook for new construction is uncertain to say the least right now kind of all over the board depending on the analysts that you look at. And so the underlying market certainly will impact the results for signing volume growth as we go through this year. No question about it. But where I disagree with you is the point about the business not being stress tested during other periods of downtime of a housing slowing or housing going down.

是的。所以邁克爾，所以你所描述的圍繞某種宏觀 R&R 支出的風險是真實存在的。然後我們——正如我們在準備好的評論中談到的那樣，新建築的前景不確定，至少現在可以說是全面的，這取決於你所看到的分析師。因此，基礎市場肯定會影響今年簽約量增長的結果。毫無疑問。但我不同意你的觀點是，在住房放緩或住房下跌的其他停機期間，企業沒有接受壓力測試。

We've consistently outpace the market on volume growth and certainly on revenue growth. And so I think -- and the reason we've been able to do that is, first of all, our portfolio is pretty highly diversified given the exposure to non-housing and even non-repair and remodel segments like shared and in positions in retail. And then also over the past 5 to 7 years. We've done a really good job around product innovation that has opened up new opportunities for us, and that's why we show that slide in our deck about the percentage of the revenue that is new products.

我們在銷量增長和收入增長方面一直超過市場。所以我認為 - 我們能夠做到這一點的原因是，首先，我們的投資組合非常多樣化，因為我們接觸到非住房甚至非維修和改造部分，如共享和頭寸零售。然後也是過去 5 到 7 年。我們在產品創新方面做得非常好，這為我們開闢了新的機會，這就是為什麼我們在幻燈片中展示新產品佔收入的百分比。

So the fact that we have an ExpertFinish kind of just coming into any kind of significant market position now. R&R could be down, but because of our market share being pretty low in R&R and the fact that we're essentially in the last phases of introducing our ExpertFinish to the market. We see that -- we see a lot of upside to that from a market share standpoint. Again, we can't overcome R&Rs down, upsiding R&R down 10%. This year, we're going to feel that. But we are confident that there's still -- we still have the ability, given how well our product performs given the innovation that we've been able to bring to market in the last 5 years or so.

因此，事實上我們現在擁有一種 ExpertFinish 剛剛進入任何一種重要的市場地位。 R&R 可能會下降，但由於我們在 R&R 中的市場份額非常低，而且我們基本上處於將我們的 ExpertFinish 引入市場的最後階段。我們看到了——從市場份額的角度來看，我們看到了很多好處。同樣，我們無法克服 R&R 下降，上行 R&R 下降 10%。今年，我們將感受到這一點。但我們有信心，我們仍然有能力，鑑於我們在過去 5 年左右的時間裡能夠將創新推向市場，我們的產品表現如何。

And given depending on the geography and the segment, relative lower penetration rates in certain parts of the country in certain segments. We're confident that we're going to fill up as a go facility. From a press standpoint, we're confident we're going to have to continue to build ExpertFinish capacity, and we're confident we're going to grow. But that growth can be gauged somewhat by the underlying R&R and single-family historic market.

並且根據地理位置和細分市場，某些細分市場在該國某些地區的滲透率相對較低。我們有信心，我們將填補作為一個去設施。從媒體的角度來看，我們有信心我們將不得不繼續建立 ExpertFinish 產能，我們有信心我們會成長。但這種增長可以通過潛在的 R&R 和單戶歷史市場來衡量。

But we're all in on gaining market share and I'll just make one final remark. Historically, this is a general statement, but historically, that we've actually picked up more market share in a down market in the upmarket and have been able to hold that market share. So I'm not say excited about a down market at all. But I do believe that it brings opportunity for customers to shop around a little bit. And given the -- how well our product performs once we get a trial, that can bode pretty well for us over the long term.

但我們都在爭取獲得市場份額，我只想說最後一句話。從歷史上看，這是一個籠統的說法，但從歷史上看，我們實際上在高端市場的低迷市場中獲得了更多的市場份額，並且能夠保持該市場份額。所以我一點也不對市場低迷感到興奮。但我確實相信它為顧客帶來了貨比三家的機會。考慮到——我們的產品在試用後的表現如何，從長遠來看，這對我們來說是個好兆頭。

Got it. Just one quick follow-up on that. Just you mentioned lower penetration rates in certain parts of the country and segments. Can you provide a little bit more color about what parts of the country and what segments have lower penetration rates that you're trying to increase your share?

知道了。只是對此進行快速跟進。剛才你提到了該國某些地區和細分市場的較低滲透率。你能否提供更多關於該國哪些地區和哪些細分市場的滲透率較低的顏色，而你正試圖增加你的份額？

Yes. So let me just -- in general, so geographically, in the center of the country, north to south, so Texas up to Minnesota, and we've got good market share there. But if you once you go east of Texas and the South of the Atlantic Sea Board, a lot of opportunity there for both new construction and repair remodel at the reason -- we've converted Houlton in Maine and (inaudible) building as per finished capacity in New York and expanding the capacity that we have in North Carolina for ExpertFinish.

是的。所以讓我 - 總的來說，在地理上，在這個國家的中心，從北到南，從德克薩斯到明尼蘇達，我們在那裡有很好的市場份額。但是，如果你去得克薩斯州東部和大西洋海域南部，那裡有很多機會進行新建築和維修改造，原因是——我們已經改造了緬因州的霍爾頓和（聽不清）建築紐約的產能並擴大我們在北卡羅來納州的 ExpertFinish 產能。

So there's an opportunity there. And then I would say that there's been pockets of the Pacific Northwest, there are some good markets for us there historically, but there's still opportunity for growth, particularly with ExpertFinish.

所以那裡有機會。然後我會說太平洋西北地區有一些地方，歷史上我們在那裡有一些很好的市場，但仍然有增長的機會，特別是 ExpertFinish。

Got it. And then just one last question before turning it over. Obviously, you have a large shareholder which slightly increased its stake last quarter to slightly under 10%. Obviously, you've been doing a good job in terms of reorienting the portfolio to higher growth, higher value-add products. Do you see more shareholder value being created through the involvement of the shareholder?

知道了。然後是最後一個問題，然後再將其翻過來。顯然，你有一個大股東，上個季度將其持股略微增加到略低於 10%。顯然，您在將投資組合重新定位到更高增長、更高附加值的產品方面做得很好。您是否看到通過股東的參與創造了更多的股東價值？

Well, maybe reputationally, it helps a little bit, but I don't think there's any direct and we haven't noticed any direct improve shareholder value as a result of that. But I mean, we're proud to have it. I'll tell you that. But I think any -- so not directly, but I would assume that the credibility that brings to our strategy cannot hurt.

好吧，也許在聲譽上，它有一點幫助，但我認為沒有任何直接的影響，我們也沒有註意到任何直接提高股東價值的結果。但我的意思是，我們為擁有它而自豪。我會告訴你的。但我認為任何 - 所以不是直接的，但我認為為我們的戰略帶來的可信度不會受到傷害。

Got you. Good luck in 2023.

明白了祝你2023年好運。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is coming from Mark Weintraub of Seaport.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport 的 Mark Weintraub。

So for first quarter, if I'm doing my math right, you seem to be pointing to order of magnitude 16% EBITDA margins for the Siding business. So I was hoping to get a little bit of color on some of the variables at play because obviously below the types of ranges you've been achieving beforehand. In particular, how much in the way of like start-up or conversion costs related to Sagola might be included in there?

因此，對於第一季度，如果我的計算正確，您似乎指出 Siding 業務的 EBITDA 利潤率達到 16% 的數量級。所以我希望對一些正在發揮作用的變量有一點了解，因為顯然低於你事先達到的範圍類型。特別是，其中可能包含多少與 Sagola 相關的類似啟動或轉換成本？

How much of this is kind of just fixed absorption higher cost and what other variables might we want to contemplate besides that -- what other variables might we want to contemplate?

其中有多少只是固定吸收更高的成本，除此之外我們可能還想考慮哪些其他變量——我們可能還想考慮哪些其他變量？

Yes.a good question, Mark. Let me articulate this in the context of a year-over-year for Q1. Year-over-year, we basically said that we think more or less pricing and volume will offset and that would fundamentally leave 0 EBITDA impact. What you're left with high level is last year's EBITDA of $83 million dropping to the figure at quote $50 million. $33 million drop. About $20 million unchange of that is raw material costs, the carrier and raw material inflation.

是的，馬克，問得好。讓我在第一季度同比的背景下闡明這一點。與去年同期相比，我們基本上說我們認為或多或少的定價和數量將抵消，這將從根本上留下 0 EBITDA 影響。剩下的高水平是去年 8300 萬美元的 EBITDA 下降到 5000 萬美元的數字。下降 3300 萬美元。大約 2000 萬美元不變的是原材料成本、承運人和原材料通脹。

Now as we all know, normally that would be offset with pricing. And technically, it is except for the fact that in Q1 volumes are down, so to me solving (inaudible) differently, yes, with volumes being down. One of the problems of having profitable product is that when your volumes are down, you make less money. And as I said, more than months on calls like this, we enjoy a high variable margin on the outstanding products. So yes, when volumes are down year-over-year, the is a heavy EBITDA impact of 45% to 50% of the revenue drop caused by volume.

眾所周知，通常這會被定價所抵消。從技術上講，除了第一季度的交易量下降之外，所以對我來說解決（聽不清）不同的是，是的，交易量下降了。擁有有利可圖的產品的問題之一是，當您的銷量下降時，您賺的錢就會減少。正如我所說，在這樣的通話中，我們在優秀產品上享有很高的可變利潤率。所以是的，當銷量同比下降時，EBITDA 的影響很大，佔銷量下降的 45% 到 50%。

So the way I look at it is pricing and volume, EBITDA impacts basically net off we're left with $20 million unchange of raw material and then $5 million to $10 million of yes, continuing investments. So that's really how it co compares year-over-year. We are planning on with the conversion of Sagola and other projects. And those do put a, let's call it, a strain on the EBITDA. But it's the right strain, in my opinion. But so $10 million of investments in stuff and about $20 million and change of raw material with pricing and volume impacts offsetting in EBITDA.

所以我看待它的方式是定價和數量，EBITDA 的影響基本上是淨額，我們剩下 2000 萬美元的原材料不變，然後是 500 萬到 1000 萬美元的持續投資。所以這真的是它如何與去年同期相比。我們正計劃改造 Sagola 和其他項目。這些確實給 EBITDA 帶來了壓力。但在我看來，這是正確的壓力。但是，1000 萬美元的東西投資和大約 2000 萬美元以及原材料的變化與定價和數量影響抵消了 EBITDA。

Great. And I realize this is tough and lots of moving pieces. But did you have any assessment as to how much of the volume weakness is either you sold a little bit ahead of time or destock is kind of really maybe the same thing and so really trying to get a sense of let's just say conditions were to remain similar to what they are.

偉大的。我意識到這很艱難，而且有很多動人的部分。但是你有沒有評估過有多少銷量疲軟是你提前賣了一點或者去庫存可能真的是一回事，所以真的想了解一下讓我們只是說情況將保持不變類似於他們是什麼。

Would you -- what type of volume improvement might you expect on a go-forward basis. I guess what I'm really sort of just trying to get a sense of is kind of ranges for volume expectations, recognizing you don't want to give a full year estimate given all these uncertainties but if there's some like sort of sensitivity analysis you can provide to us under the different macro situations of where you might think volume and siding might come out, that'd be super helpful.

你會 - 在前進的基礎上你期望什麼樣的音量改進。我想我真正想了解的是銷量預期的範圍，認識到鑑於所有這些不確定性，你不想給出全年的估計，但如果有某種類似的敏感性分析，你可以在不同的宏觀情況下為我們提供您可能認為成交量和壁板可能出現的位置，這將非常有幫助。

So Mark, let me start there, and Alan can add maybe some color to this. But -- so in the context of gauging where we are today, and I'm talking about Q1 relative to the market condition. We guided 30% growth in Q4 and 38% we had a price increase January 1. We were all managed order file, which means customers are ordering 6 to 8 weeks or longer out in our managed order cost situation. And so I do believe that there was some order pull forward into Q4 that allowed that drove an outstanding Q4 growth relative to what we were guiding to when we talked to you guys late October, first November.

馬克，讓我從這裡開始，艾倫也許可以為此添加一些色彩。但是——所以在衡量我們今天所處位置的背景下，我說的是與市場狀況相關的第一季度。我們指導第四季度增長 30%，1 月 1 日價格上漲 38%。我們都是管理訂單文件，這意味著客戶在我們的管理訂單成本情況下訂購 6 到 8 週或更長時間。因此，我確實相信，有一些訂單會提前進入第四季度，這使得第四季度的增長相對於我們在 10 月下旬、11 月與你們交談時所指導的情況。

And so I think that you've got to kind of look at the 2 quarters combined to understand kind of what's happened there. And then as we look into Q2, there's a bit of that gauging what are really on pull-throughs, which have been kind of hard to understand because there was the inventory build at the end of the quarter. But I think we are right now -- it feels like right now in our order file. We are beginning to see where we're servicing true demand and I think, as Alan, I think, mentioned in his prepared remarks, when we get to -- I know this doesn't help you in the meantime.

所以我認為你必須結合這兩個季度來了解那裡發生的事情。然後當我們研究第二季度時，有一些衡量真正的拉動的東西，這有點難以理解，因為在本季度末有庫存增加。但我認為我們現在就在——感覺就像現在在我們的訂單文件中一樣。我們開始看到我們在哪里為真正的需求提供服務，我認為，正如艾倫在他準備好的發言中提到的那樣，當我們到達時——我知道這同時對你沒有幫助。

But when we get to the next call, we'll have a really good feel for that. It's just that the uncertainty around what was being pulled out of distribution from, say, January 1 until a week or so ago has been difficult for us to gauge because there was an inventory build as a result of what I've just spoken to. So I don't know, Alan, if you

但是當我們接到下一個電話時，我們會有一種非常好的感覺。只是，從 1 月 1 日到一周左右之前，從分銷中撤出的產品的不確定性對我們來說很難衡量，因為我剛才所說的導致庫存增加。所以我不知道，艾倫，如果你

There's isn't anything I should add to that.

沒有什麼我應該補充的。

Great. That's just squeezing real quickly because you did note another big inflation year-over-year impact it seems like some folks are seeing lower wood costs in other different businesses. I mean there has been some optimism, maybe resin comes down a little bit. When might we start -- are we not seeing that yet in siding? And when might that start showing up?

偉大的。這只是在快速擠壓，因為你確實注意到了另一個同比大的通貨膨脹影響，似乎有些人看到其他不同行業的木材成本降低了。我的意思是有一些樂觀情緒，也許樹脂會下降一點。我們什麼時候可以開始——我們是否還沒有在壁板中看到這一點？什麼時候會開始出現？

So on the resin side and basically, just to say all materials other than wood, those major material streams are contracted and there's a contract price which is based on some derivative of oil, but it is a lag. And so -- but if we continue to see oil prices fall and even some that we have -- some of that have fallen as already happened. We haven't realized yet. Certainly, it could be helpful for margin this year. We certainly are not seeing any more increases in that area.

所以在樹脂方面，基本上，除了木材以外的所有材料，那些主要的材料流都是收縮的，並且有一個基於石油的一些衍生物的合同價格，但這是一個滯後。所以——但如果我們繼續看到油價下跌，甚至我們已經看到的一些——其中一些已經下跌，就像已經發生的那樣。我們還沒有意識到。當然，這可能有助於今年的利潤率。我們當然不會在該領域看到任何更多的增長。

And then on the wood side, same thing, a big driver for us, and we're buying pulp wood. So there's a big driver for us is base as far as us getting the wood into the facilities. And but I will say structurally, we have experienced some price increases in to service our Canadian mills due to us having to go further to procure wood, given some of the restrictions on harvesting in Canada. And so you may not be surprised us were from an OSB perspective, that's where we're looking at some downtime.

然後在木材方面，同樣的事情，對我們來說是一個很大的驅動力，我們正在購買紙漿木材。因此，就我們將木材投入設施而言，對我們來說有一個很大的驅動力。但我要說的是結構性的，由於加拿大對採伐的一些限制，我們不得不進一步採購木材，因此我們在為加拿大工廠提供服務時經歷了一些價格上漲。因此，從 OSB 的角度來看，您可能不會感到驚訝，這就是我們正在尋找停機時間的地方。

But I think costs for moderate mark as we go through the year, certainly on the resin side, and we're having to just really manage hard on the wood side to bring those costs down. But relief development with diesel pricing would be certainly helpful there.

但我認為，隨著我們度過這一年，成本適中，當然是在樹脂方面，我們必須真正努力管理木材方面，以降低這些成本。但柴油定價的救濟發展肯定會有所幫助。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is coming from Kurt Yinger of D.A. Davidson.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Kurt Yinger。戴維森。

Great. Good morning, everyone. Just starting off on the OSB segment, any thoughts on the relative weakness in Structural Solutions versus commodity volumes in Q4? And do you think that reflects maybe timing differences in terms of prices declining or kind of a larger trend we should be aware of in terms of those products, perhaps being less in demand and a weaker commodity pricing environment.

偉大的。大家，早安。剛剛從 OSB 部分開始，對第四季度結構解決方案相對於商品數量的相對疲軟有什麼想法？你認為這是否反映了價格下降的時間差異或我們應該注意這些產品的更大趨勢，也許是需求減少和商品定價環境疲軟。

Yes. Yes. We certainly saw from an overall volume standpoint, those go down. I just think primarily the market got so competitive in Q4 as folks were kind of rationalizing inventory and production. We certainly saw a falloff there. I am totally optimistic on the long term about our ability to grow Structural Solutions. But I do think I think in both directions in a strong up market, it's easier to push structural solutions into the market in a hard down market, those -- given where how pricing could lag around certain Foreign SKUs. We can really become that those SKUs could really become disadvantaged against more commodity products. And so I think we have to be careful of the about gauging and where we are, both on the upside and downside of Structural Solutions because of that kind of value the value proposition and get out of kilter from a pricing standpoint when the market is moving.

是的。是的。從整體數量的角度來看，我們當然看到了這些下降。我只是認為主要是市場在第四季度變得如此競爭激烈，因為人們正在合理化庫存和生產。我們當然在那裡看到了衰減。從長遠來看，我對我們發展結構解決方案的能力完全樂觀。但我確實認為，我認為在一個強勁的上漲市場的兩個方向上，在一個艱難的市場中將結構性解決方案推向市場更容易，那些 - 考慮到某些外國 SKU 的定價可能如何滯後。我們真的可以成為那些 SKU 真的可以在更多商品面前處於不利地位。因此，我認為我們必須小心衡量和我們所處的位置，無論是在結構解決方案的上行還是下行，因為這種價值是價值主張，並且在市場變化時從定價的角度擺脫失衡.

So I -- it's something that we're keeping an eye on, but I do believe the strategy is sound. We did grow it, obviously, from an annual standpoint. And just like I had mentioned earlier with Siding, we've introduced some really exciting new SKUs to give us an opportunity to continue to grow that.

所以我 - 這是我們一直關注的事情，但我確實相信該戰略是合理的。顯然，從每年的角度來看，我們確實增長了它。就像我之前提到的 Siding 一樣，我們推出了一些非常令人興奮的新 SKU，讓我們有機會繼續發展它。

Got it. Okay. That makes sense. And then just for my second, there was a question earlier around pricing and you alluded to kind of the volume discounts and rebate program with builders. But One of your competitors, I guess, had some interesting comments in regards to kind of the pricing dynamic there and perhaps just getting more aggressive.

知道了。好的。這就說得通了。然後就我的第二個問題而言，早些時候有一個關於定價的問題，你提到了與建築商的批量折扣和回扣計劃。但我猜你的一個競爭對手對那裡的定價動態有一些有趣的評論，也許只是變得更加激進。

I mean do you have any thoughts around that dynamic as it relates to SmartSide. And maybe you could also just touch on the success that you've seen with the builder series introduction.

我的意思是你對與 SmartSide 相關的動態有任何想法嗎？也許您也可以簡單地談談您在構建器系列介紹中看到的成功。

Yes. We're excited about the progress we made last year with the builder series. We're excited about some wins that we've had recently and some ongoing negotiations that are happening now. But it is competitive. I mean, there's no question about it. That's the reason we engineered a product specifically for that channel or that end use. And so as the market slows -- there's certainly that's a competitive landscape right there where big builders have negotiating leverage given the volume that they'll consume and the market share that they've gained during COVID.

是的。我們對去年在建造者係列中取得的進展感到興奮。我們對最近取得的一些勝利以及現在正在進行的一些談判感到興奮。但它是有競爭力的。我的意思是，這是毫無疑問的。這就是我們專門為該渠道或最終用途設計產品的原因。因此，隨著市場放緩——肯定存在競爭格局，大型建築商在考慮到他們將消耗的數量和他們在 COVID 期間獲得的市場份額的情況下具有談判籌碼。

So -- but unlike in our history, we now have a product that is very competitive there. That is very Aesthetically pleasing. It is -- once it is [track] trialed. It seems to -- tends to be accepted and there's a stickiness to it. So we're going to continue to grow that. But you point out correctly that, that is a competitive landscape, unlike probably India that we operate in, where price can be a dominant driver sometimes even not necessarily what we view as the entire value proposition. But I feel good about our -- the way we're positioned to win there, but we won't win them all.

所以 - 但與我們的歷史不同，我們現在擁有一種在那裡非常有競爭力的產品。這在美學上非常令人愉悅。它是——一旦它被 [track] 試用。它似乎 - 傾向於被接受並且有粘性。所以我們將繼續發展。但是你正確地指出，這是一個競爭格局，不像我們經營所在的印度，在那裡價格有時可能是主要驅動因素，甚至不一定是我們認為的整個價值主張。但我對我們的 - 我們在那裡獲勝的方式感到滿意，但我們不會贏得所有人。

Right. Okay. Well, appreciate the details. I'll turn it over

正確的。好的。好吧，欣賞細節。我會把它翻過來

(Operator Instructions) Our next question will come from Paul Quinn of RBC.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題將來自 RBC 的 Paul Quinn。

Just one of your siding competitors is signed contracts with 24 to 25 top U.S. builders to supply hard siding. Just wondering how you expect that to affect your builder series. Also, they've also reintroduced their low price [sampling] product. Just wondering that's going to have a material headwind on sort of the growth of builder series.

只有您的壁板競爭對手之一與 24 到 25 家美國頂級建築商簽訂了供應硬壁板的合同。只是想知道您期望這會如何影響您的構建器系列。此外，他們還重新推出了低價 [樣品] 產品。只是想知道這會對建造者係列的增長產生重大不利影響。

As I just mentioned, it's a very competitive field of around big builder lap siding. But I really feel like the product that we introduced, Paul, that Builder shares is a superior product of everything that's out there for that application. We're able to price it competitively I mean, to win our share of the opportunities. But it's a negotiated deal. It's a lot of volume involved. And we'll kind of have to see how it plays out this year, but the market share we gained last year is sticky. And then -- so I mean, I think -- I'm confident that we can battle head-to-head with anybody around that type of business now given that we have this product.

正如我剛才提到的，這是一個圍繞大型建築商搭接壁板的競爭非常激烈的領域。但我真的覺得我們推出的產品，Paul，Builder 分享的是該應用程序的所有產品中的卓越產品。我的意思是，我們能夠為其定價具有競爭力，以贏得我們的機會份額。但這是經過談判達成的協議。涉及的數量很大。我們將不得不看看它今年的表現如何，但我們去年獲得的市場份額是粘性的。然後——所以我的意思是，我認為——鑑於我們擁有這種產品，我相信我們現在可以與圍繞此類業務的任何人進行正面交鋒。

And I'm also confident that once a builder tries the product they're going to really like it because it's superior to their alternative hard sidings. But I don't circle back around, it's a competitive landscape and sometimes you can win off a price -- and sometimes the price gets to poor we don't want the business anymore. And then we have to walk away or we lose it because we bid to for it.

而且我也相信，一旦建築商試用了該產品，他們就會非常喜歡它，因為它優於他們的替代硬壁板。但我不會回過頭來，這是一個競爭格局，有時你可以通過價格贏得勝利——有時價格會變得很差，我們不再想要這項業務了。然後我們必須走開，否則我們會因為競標而失去它。

Got it. And then just over on expert finish, if you could give us an idea of what that margin boost is on that product. I mean it's great to see the growth. Just wondering how that affects the overall margin profile.

知道了。然後就在專家結束時，如果你能告訴我們該產品的利潤率提升是多少。我的意思是很高興看到增長。只是想知道這如何影響整體利潤率。

Significant price post associated with expert finish, the margin post today isn't that material, Paul. But as we get these newer lines up in bath and the expansion that we've contemplated out West, the line we just added a Green Bay. There's a -- the margin boost from expert finish is ahead of us. it's then. But it's currently in our -- with our reported margin, it's kind of immaterial. It's pretty much a wash right now.

與專家完成相關的重要價格帖子，今天的保證金帖子不是那麼重要，保羅。但是，當我們在巴斯獲得這些更新的線路以及我們在西部考慮的擴展時，我們剛剛添加了一個綠灣線路。有一個 - 專家完成的利潤率提升就在我們前面。就在那時。但它目前在我們的 - 我們報告的保證金中，它有點無關緊要。現在差不多可以洗了。

Okay. Great.

好的。偉大的。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is coming from Sean Steuart of TD Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自道明證券的肖恩斯圖爾特。

And thanks for all the thoughtful answers to the questions. I just have one, and it's with respect to the share buyback program. And Alan, I think your wording was you could remain -- you could finish off that program subject to cash flow supporting it and with potentially a tempered CapEx outlook. Is there an implication there that you forgo the share buyback activity for the foreseeable future? And presuming your thoughts on intrinsic value haven't really changed, I guess, your intent to stay active on that program in light of share price weakness we've seen of late?

並感謝所有對問題的深思熟慮的回答。我只有一個，它與股票回購計劃有關。艾倫，我認為你的措辭是你可以留下來——你可以在現金流支持的情況下完成該計劃，並且資本支出前景可能會有所緩和。這是否暗示您在可預見的未來放棄股票回購活動？假設你對內在價值的想法沒有真正改變，我想，鑑於我們最近看到的股價疲軟，你打算繼續積極參與該計劃嗎？

I want to reiterate something. It's a great question. Thank you. We don't buy opportunistically. So day like this, one might imagine wish take the opportunity to buy back shares. But we put investments in the business first as I'll repeat my mantra. That we put investments in the business first, and we don't buy opportunistically. So we do maintain that discipline that we have to have the cash already generated to engage in buybacks. And I'm sure that point will come, I just can't predict well.

我想重申一件事。這是一個很好的問題。謝謝。我們不會投機取巧。這樣的日子，不禁讓人想趁機回購股票。但我們首先要對業務進行投資，因為我會重複我的口頭禪。我們首先對業務進行投資，我們不會投機取巧。因此，我們確實堅持這樣的紀律，即我們必須擁有已經產生的現金才能進行回購。而且我確信那一點會到來，我只是不能很好地預測。

Understood. And the rest of my questions have been answered.

明白了。我的其餘問題已得到解答。

Thank you. This concludes today's Q&A session. I would like to turn the call back over to Aaron Howald for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。我想將電話轉回給 Aaron Howald 作結束語。請繼續。

Okay. Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us. We are at the hour and there are no further questions. So we will bring the fourth quarter earnings call for our healthy building solutions to close. Thank you very much for joining us, and we look forward to speaking with you again soon.

好的。謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家加入我們。我們已經到了，沒有其他問題了。因此，我們將結束第四季度關於健康建築解決方案的財報電話會議。非常感謝您加入我們，我們期待很快再次與您交談。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for joining, and please enjoy the rest of your day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入，祝您度過愉快的一天。