Dorian LPG Ltd (LPG) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Dorian LPG Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Additionally, a live audio webcast of today's conference call is available on Dorian LPG's website, which is www.dorianlpg.com.

歡迎來到 Dorian LPG 2023 年第三季度收益電話會議。此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。 （操作員說明）。提醒一下，這次會議正在錄製中。此外，Dorian LPG 的網站 www.dorianlpg.com 還提供今天電話會議的現場音頻網絡廣播。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ted Young, Chief Financial Officer. Thank you, Mr. Young. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給首席財務官 Ted Young。謝謝你，楊先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Daryl. Good morning, everyone, and thank you all for joining us for our third quarter 2023 results conference call. With me today are John Hadjipateras, Chairman, President and CEO of Dorian LPG Limited; and Tim Hansen, Chief Commercial Officer.

謝謝你，達里爾。大家早上好，感謝大家參加我們的 2023 年第三季度業績電話會議。今天和我在一起的有 Dorian LPG Limited 董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 John Hadjipateras；首席商務官蒂姆·漢森 (Tim Hansen)。

As a reminder, this conference call webcast and a replay of this call will be available through February 8, 2023. Many of our remarks today contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations. These statements may often be identified with words such as expect, anticipate, believe or similar indications of future expectations. Although we believe that such forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot assure you that any forward-looking statements will prove to be correct.

提醒一下，本次電話會議的網絡直播和本次電話會議的重播將在 2023 年 2 月 8 日之前提供。我們今天的許多評論都包含基於當前預期的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述通常可以用諸如預期、預計、相信或類似的未來預期指示來識別。儘管我們認為此類前瞻性陳述是合理的，但我們無法向您保證任何前瞻性陳述都將被證明是正確的。

These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors as well as general economic conditions. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize or should underlying assumptions or estimates prove to be incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those we express today.

這些前瞻性陳述受已知和未知的風險和不確定性以及其他因素以及總體經濟狀況的影響。如果這些風險或不確定性中的一項或多項成為現實，或者如果基本假設或估計被證明是不正確的，實際結果可能與我們今天表達的結果大不相同。

Additionally, let me refer you to our unaudited results for the period ended December 31, 2022, that were filed this morning on Form 10-Q. In addition, please refer to our filings on Form 10-K, where you'll find risk factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements. Finally, you may find it useful to refer to the investor highlight slides posted this morning on our website.

此外，讓我向您推薦我們今天上午在 10-Q 表格中提交的截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日期間未經審計的業績。此外，請參閱我們的 10-K 表格文件，您會發現風險因素可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。最後，您可能會發現參考今天上午發佈在我們網站上的投資者重點幻燈片很有用。

With that, I'll turn over the call to John Hadjipateras.

有了這個，我將把電話轉給 John Hadjipateras。

Thank you, Ted. Good morning, and thank you for joining Ted, Tim and me to discuss our third quarter financial year 2023 results. John Lycouris isn't with us this morning because he's having knee surgery. John Lycouris has contributed a slide you will find in the deck with much interesting information, which I think you will may -- want to note and take and we will follow with. We will have some remarks read by -- from him at the end of our presentation and for any questions you may have.

謝謝你，特德。早上好，感謝你加入泰德、蒂姆和我討論我們 2023 財年第三季度的業績。 John Lycouris 今天早上沒有和我們在一起，因為他正在接受膝蓋手術。 John Lycouris 提供了一張幻燈片，您可以在幻燈片中找到許多有趣的信息，我想您可能會想要記錄下來，我們會跟進。在我們的演示結束時以及您可能有的任何問題，我們將讓他朗讀一些評論。

After me, Tim will present and then -- sorry, after me Ted will present and then Tim.

在我之後，蒂姆將出席，然後 - 抱歉，在我之後，特德將出席，然後是蒂姆。

Including the $1 a regular dividend announced today, we will have returned over $500 million to shareholders since our IPO. Our Board has focused on returns to shareholders while remaining commercial -- retaining commercial flexibility and ensuring a strong balance sheet. We are still investing in our business as evidenced by the 4 vessels joining our fleet in this calendar year and our commitment to the installation of 3 additional scrubbers.

包括今天宣布的 1 美元定期股息在內，自首次公開募股以來，我們已向股東返還超過 5 億美元。我們的董事會專注於股東回報，同時保持商業性——保持商業靈活性並確保穩健的資產負債表。我們仍在投資我們的業務，本日曆年有 4 艘船加入我們的船隊，並且我們承諾安裝 3 個額外的洗滌器。

For the quarter, our EBITDA was $76.2 million, and net income was $51.3 million. The net income is the second highest in our corporate history. Our net debt to capitalization was about 34%. And Ted will give you details and of course, answer any questions you may have on our quarter's financial results.

本季度，我們的 EBITDA 為 7620 萬美元，淨收入為 5130 萬美元。淨收入是我們公司歷史上第二高的。我們的資本化淨債務約為 34%。 Ted 會為您提供詳細信息，當然還會回答您對我們季度的財務結果可能提出的任何問題。

Global LPG market fundamentals strengthened in 2022 with increased volumes from both major export basin and more frequent cargo routes to Europe. Global exports increased 4% this past quarter and are up 6% for the year with support primarily from North America. Total exports for 2022 increased to $117.5 million from 110.9 million tonnes in 2021. U.S. exports increased 6% or 700,000 metric tons from the third calendar quarter, supported by favorable arbitrage economics, which persist today.

2022 年，全球液化石油氣市場基本面得到加強，主要出口盆地的產量增加，通往歐洲的貨運航線更加頻繁。在主要來自北美的支持下，上個季度全球出口增長了 4%，全年增長了 6%。 2022 年的總出口量從 2021 年的 1.109 億噸增加到 1.175 億美元。美國出口量比第三季度增長 6% 或 700,000 公噸，這得益於有利的套利經濟，這種情況一直持續到今天。

2022 U.S. volumes were up 3%, an increase of 1.3 million tons from 2021. Middle East export volume showed continued growth despite maintenance in some terminals in the beginning of December. Annual volumes out of the region are up 18%, increasing by 6.4 million tons from 35.9 million tons in 2021 to 42.3 million in 2022 driven by reversals to OPEC plus production cuts.

2022 美國出口量增長 3%，比 2021 年增加 130 萬噸。中東出口量繼續增長，儘管 12 月初部分碼頭進行了維護。該地區的年產量增長了 18%，增加了 640 萬噸，從 2021 年的 3590 萬噸增加到 2022 年的 4230 萬噸，這得益於歐佩克的逆轉和減產。

Freight rates were this past quarter, underpinned by a strong arbitrage and increased waiting time in Panama. Rates fell in early December as can now waiting ease and some terminals in the Middle East underwent maintenance and demand in Asia was subdued. We are now seeing a rapid reversal and an increase in freight rates in both basins.

上個季度的運費受到強勁套利和巴拿馬等待時間增加的支撐。費率在 12 月初下降，因為現在可以輕鬆等待，中東的一些碼頭正在進行維護，亞洲的需求受到抑制。我們現在看到兩個流域的運費迅速逆轉和上漲。

On the shore side, Dorian's operation, we continue to work hard to ensure the well-being of our crew especially our Ukrainian and Russian sea fares and their families. On the performance side, we have been very focused on our strategy to comply with the 2023 IMO emission regulations, the EEXI and the CII. We have built out dashboards and forecasting tools that assist our commercial team in optimizing our utilization and achieve a solid CII score for each vessel in the pool.

在岸邊，Dorian 的運營，我們繼續努力確保我們船員的福祉，特別是我們的烏克蘭和俄羅斯海運費及其家人。在性能方面，我們一直非常專注於遵守 2023 年 IMO 排放法規、EEXI 和 CII 的戰略。我們已經構建了儀表板和預測工具，幫助我們的商業團隊優化我們的利用率，並為池中的每艘船取得可靠的 CII 分數。

Our team has spent the past 2 years preparing for these regulations and see this year as a turning point and a journey to decarbonize shipping. We will continue our research efforts and installations of various energy-saving devices and premium paints to reduce consumption cost and carbon footprint.

我們的團隊在過去 2 年中一直在為這些法規做準備，並將今年視為轉折點和航運脫碳之旅。我們將繼續研究和安裝各種節能設備和優質塗料，以降低消耗成本和碳足跡。

Looking ahead, at the market estimates for U.S. exports point to further growth in '23 and '24. And its January short-term outlook report, the EEIA said it now estimates that U.S. LPG exports will grow 15.9% in 2023 year-over-year. This is up from their October estimate of $11.3 million in 2023. The U.S. is now producing well over 100 million tons of LPG a year with 2022 numbers coming in at about 106 million tons.

展望未來，市場對美國出口的估計表明 23 和 24 年將進一步增長。 EEIA 在 1 月份的短期展望報告中表示，它現在估計美國液化石油氣出口在 2023 年將同比增長 15.9%。這高於他們 10 月份估計的 2023 年 1130 萬美元。美國現在每年生產超過 1 億噸液化石油氣，2022 年的產量約為 1.06 億噸。

I'll hand you over to Ted now for his remarks.

我現在將你交給 Ted，請他發表意見。

Thanks, John. my comments to be will focus on the recent capital allocation events, our financial position and liquidity and our unaudited third quarter results.

謝謝，約翰。我的評論將集中在最近的資本配置事件、我們的財務狀況和流動性以及我們未經審計的第三季度業績上。

At December 31, 2022, we reported $129.8 million of cash which was net of the $40 million dividend payment made at the beginning of the month. On January 30, 2023, we had roughly $165 million in cash with the increase from December 31, reflecting the January distribution from the Helios Pool. Also, as John mentioned, we will pay another $1 per share is an irregular dividend of roughly $40.3 million in total of dividends on or about February 28, 2023, to shareholders of record as of February 15, 2023.

截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，我們報告的現金為 1.298 億美元，扣除月初支付的 4000 萬美元股息。到 2023 年 1 月 30 日，我們擁有大約 1.65 億美元的現金，比 12 月 31 日有所增加，反映了 Helios Pool 在 1 月份的分配情況。此外，正如 John 提到的那樣，我們將在 2023 年 2 月 28 日左右向截至 2023 年 2 月 15 日登記在冊的股東再支付每股 1 美元的不定期股息，總股息約為 4030 萬美元。

The irregular dividend announced this morning reflects the strong rate environment and our resulting cash flow. Once paid at the end of February, Dorian will have paid over $300 million in dividends and have repurchased nearly $229 million in stock, representing 18.8 million shares which together totals nearly $530 million in capital returned to our investors since our IPO in 2014.

今天上午宣布的不定期股息反映了強勁的利率環境和我們由此產生的現金流。一旦在 2 月底支付，Dorian 將支付超過 3 億美元的股息，並回購近 2.29 億美元的股票，代表 1880 萬股股票，自我們 2014 年首次公開募股以來，總共向投資者返還近 5.3 億美元的資本。

Our Board continues to take a pragmatic quarter-by-quarter review of the company's performance, the LPG chartering market environment and other macroeconomic and industry factors to determine whether to pay and if so, how much in dividends.

我們的董事會繼續對公司的業績、液化石油氣租船市場環境和其他宏觀經濟和行業因素進行務實的逐季度審查，以確定是否支付股息，如果支付，將支付多少股息。

With a debt balance at quarter end of $635.6 million, our debt to total capitalization stood at 43.2%, and our net debt to total cap is, of course, even lower given our large cash balance.

季度末的債務餘額為 6.356 億美元，我們的債務佔總資本的比例為 43.2%，考慮到我們的大量現金餘額，我們的淨債務佔總上限的比例當然更低。

Moving into this calendar year, we will take delivery of our dual fuel new building from Kawasaki at the end of March as well as 3 long-term time chartered in dual fuel ships, representing nearly 20% growth in our commercially managed fleet. With these additional vessels, our cash cost per day will increase to $24,000 to $25,000 a day, but I would also note that these vessels offer higher earnings potential given their size, fuel efficiency and dual-fuel optionality.

進入這個日曆年，我們將在 3 月底從川崎接收我們的雙燃料新船以及 3 艘雙燃料船的長期定期租用船，這意味著我們的商業管理船隊增長了近 20%。有了這些額外的船隻，我們每天的現金成本將增加到 24,000 美元到 25,000 美元，但我還要指出，考慮到這些船隻的規模、燃油效率和雙燃料可選性，它們具有更高的盈利潛力。

For the discussion of our third quarter results, you may also find it useful to refer to the investor highlight slides posted this morning on our website. Turning to our third quarter chartering results, we achieved a total utilization of 97.8% for the quarter with a daily TCE per operating day as those terms are defined in our filings, of 52,768 yielding a utilization adjusted TCE of about 51,630, that again is TCE per available day. Spot TCE per available day, which reflects our portion of the net profits of the Helios Pool for the quarter was about $52,583. Also, the overall Helios pool reported a spot TCE, including COAs, of approximately $57,000 per available day for the quarter. You will note that these results are somewhat correlated with the average Baltic rate recorded on a 2-month lag. As many investors and analysts look to model the business, we would note that a 2-month lag Baltic is more in line with the actual cycle of the business. Our team books voyage is about 30 days out and the average load to discharge i.e., one-way age is about 30 days.

對於我們第三季度業績的討論，您可能還會發現參考今天上午在我們網站上發布的投資者亮點幻燈片很有用。談到我們第三季度的租船結果，我們在本季度實現了 97.8% 的總利用率，每個工作日的每日 TCE 為 52,768，產生利用率調整後的 TCE 約為 51,630，這又是 TCE每個可用的一天。每個可用日的現貨 TCE，反映了本季度我們在 Helios Pool 的淨利潤中所佔的部分約為 52,583 美元。此外，整個 Helios 池報告的現貨 TCE（包括 COA）在本季度每個可用日約為 57,000 美元。您會注意到，這些結果與 2 個月滯後記錄的平均波羅的海匯率有些相關。由於許多投資者和分析師希望對業務進行建模，我們會注意到波羅的海滯後 2 個月更符合業務的實際週期。我們的團隊預定航程約為 30 天，平均卸貨負荷，即單程船齡約為 30 天。

It is also worth reminding the investment community that the published Baltic rate assumes 100% utilization and is based only on the Ras Tanura-Chiba route. Turning to the cost side. Our daily OpEx for the quarter was $9,739 which is up marginally from the quarter ended September 30, 2022. The Crew costs, which include crew travel, appear to have found a new normal as crew cost per day has been relatively stable over the last 3 quarters, and spares and stores were actually down sequentially. Repairs and maintenance and lubricant costs drove the increase this quarter. Our time trigger in expense for the 2 TCM vessels remained stable at $5.2 million.

還值得投資界提醒的是，公佈的波羅的海費率假設 100% 利用率，並且僅基於 Ras Tanura-Chiba 航線。轉向成本方面。我們本季度的每日運營支出為 9,739 美元，比截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日的季度略有上升。船員成本（包括船員差旅費）似乎找到了新常態，因為過去 3 天船員成本相對穩定宿舍，備件和商店實際上順序下降。維修和維護以及潤滑油成本推動了本季度的增長。我們對 2 艘 TCM 船隻的時間觸發費用保持穩定在 520 萬美元。

Total G&A for the quarter was $6.9 million and cash G&A is G&A excluding noncash compensation expense, was $5.9 million. Included in the $5.9 million is approximately $200,000 that we spent to provide accommodation and food to the families of our seafares affected by the war in Ukraine, we also recognized about $250,000 of performance-based bonuses for some employees in the quarter. Thus, our core G&A for the quarter was about $5.5 million, which is consistent with our expectations.

本季度總 G&A 為 690 萬美元，現金 G&A 為 G&A，不包括非現金補償費用，為 590 萬美元。在這 590 萬美元中，我們花費了大約 200,000 美元為受烏克蘭戰爭影響的海員家屬提供住宿和食物，我們還在本季度為一些員工確認了約 250,000 美元的基於績效的獎金。因此，我們本季度的核心 G&A 約為 550 萬美元，這與我們的預期一致。

Our reported adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $76.2 million, up sharply from the prior quarter's $46.2 million. We look at cash interest expense on our debt as the sum of the line items, interest expense, excluding deferred financing fees and other loan expenses and realized gain/loss on interest rate swap derivatives. On that basis, total cash interest expense for the quarter was $6.6 million. Our hedges saved us $1.4 million in cash interest this period, and we recently extended our existing hedge profile to ensure that the 2022 debt facility is 80% hedged until its maturity in 2029.

我們報告的本季度調整後 EBITDA 為 7620 萬美元，大幅高於上一季度的 4620 萬美元。我們將債務的現金利息支出視為項目、利息支出（不包括遞延融資費用和其他貸款支出）以及利率掉期衍生品的已實現損益的總和。以此為基礎，本季度的現金利息支出總額為 660 萬美元。在此期間，我們的對沖為我們節省了 140 萬美元的現金利息，而且我們最近擴展了現有的對沖方案，以確保 2022 年的債務融資在 2029 年到期之前得到 80% 的對沖。

Although we currently hold an 87.5% economic interest in Helios, we do not consolidate its P&L or balance sheet accounts, which has the effect of understating our cash and working capital. Thus, we believe it's used to provide some additional data in order to give a more complete picture. As of Monday, January 30, 2023, the Helios Pool held $20.5 million of cash on hand.

儘管我們目前持有 Helios 87.5% 的經濟權益，但我們並未合併其損益表或資產負債表賬戶，這會低估我們的現金和營運資金。因此，我們認為它用於提供一些額外的數據以提供更完整的圖片。截至 2023 年 1 月 30 日星期一，Helios Pool 手頭持有 2050 萬美元現金。

Page 5 of the investor highlights materials outlines the economics of our scrubber investments, and clearly, this investment has been valuable for our shareholders. Of note, the total scrubber cost savings have now paid back the entire initial investment. In addition, as John noted, we have committed to 3 additional scrubbers and I would note that the installed cost of these 3 scrubbers will be roughly 2/3 of the cost that we incurred on the first 10 retrofits.

投資者重點材料的第 5 頁概述了我們洗滌塔投資的經濟性，顯然，這項投資對我們的股東來說很有價值。值得注意的是，洗滌器總成本節省現在已經收回了全部初始投資。此外，正如 John 指出的那樣，我們已承諾增加 3 個洗滌器，我會注意到這 3 個洗滌器的安裝成本大約是我們前 10 次改造所產生成本的 2/3。

You also note that our investments in performance monitoring have also proven their value as both our AER and EEOI have on the basis of unaudited figures for calendar year 2022 falling by mid-single-digit percentages versus the prior year. Thus, Dorian's contribution to a cleaner environment continues unabated.

您還注意到，我們在績效監控方面的投資也證明了它們的價值，因為我們的 AER 和 EEOI 都基於 2022 日曆年未經審計的數據，與上一年相比下降了中個位數百分比。因此，Dorian 對清潔環境的貢獻有增無減。

The significant irregular dividends in the last 12 months underscore our Board's commitment to a sensible capital allocation policy, the balances market outlook operating and capital needs of the business and appropriate level of risk tolerance given the volatility in shipping. We also continue to evaluate potentially interesting investment opportunities that may represent attractive risk-adjusted returns.

過去 12 個月的重大不定期股息突顯了我們董事會對明智的資本分配政策、平衡市場前景運營和業務資本需求以及鑑於航運波動的適當風險承受水平的承諾。我們還繼續評估可能代表有吸引力的風險調整後回報的潛在有趣投資機會。

With the continuing solid freight market backdrop, we remain cautiously optimistic about our cash flow generation over the coming months. With that, I'll pass it over to Tim Hansen.

在持續穩固的貨運市場背景下，我們對未來幾個月的現金流產生持謹慎樂觀態度。有了這個，我會把它傳遞給蒂姆漢森。

Thank you, gentlemen. Good day, everyone. Thanks for filling in. The October to December 2022 quarter saw increased LPG export as well as import demand, which translated into a current freight market. North American export was void by regulatory winter, dampening domestic LPG consumption and continued record-setting production levels. The quarter is often characterized by seasonality as Asian importers tend to stock pilot of the winter and 2022 was no exception.

謝謝你們，先生們。今天是個好日子。感謝您的填寫。2022 年 10 月至 2022 年 12 月的季度液化石油氣出口和進口需求均有所增加，這轉化為當前的貨運市場。北美出口因監管冬天而無效，抑制了國內液化石油氣消費和繼續創紀錄的生產水平。該季度通常具有季節性特徵，因為亞洲進口商傾向於庫存冬季飛行員，2022 年也不例外。

North American exports set a record for exports for the quarter, while South Korea and Japan posed a strong import level, also helped by demand for the (inaudible) to navigate the cold winter. Middle East export volumes were slightly down compared to previous quarter, but nonetheless, it was a record high fourth quarter exports.

北美出口創下了本季度的出口記錄，而韓國和日本的進口水平也很高，這也得益於對（聽不清）度過寒冬的需求。與上一季度相比，中東出口量略有下降，但仍創下第四季度出口量的歷史新高。

The East of Suez market saw the BLPG1, which is the benchmark for [cheaper rate], continued the upward trend from the quarter prior despite a brief low during the Golden Week holidays in the Far East. Several delays at key discharge ports in India and in the Far East saw considerable tonnage during October and November. Meantime, market players also had to plan with long lead times because the West market was seen fixing in those 5 to 6 weeks in advance of the low delay hands.

蘇伊士以東市場 BLPG1 作為 [低價] 的基準，儘管在遠東黃金周假期期間出現了短暫的低點，但仍延續了上一季度的上漲趨勢。在 10 月和 11 月期間，印度和遠東地區的主要卸貨港發生了幾次延誤，造成相當大的噸位。同時，市場參與者還必須計劃較長的交貨時間，因為西方市場在低延遲手之前的 5 到 6 週內就已確定。

The result of the favorite product market of solving tonnage discharge port and navigating long lead times was a bullet market in October and November. On the 21st of November, we saw a record high BLPG1 posted at $148 per metric tons. December was relatively quiet as a seasonal back rotation in the market impacted the product market and a significant downward correction was seen in the second half of December.

解決噸位卸貨港和航行超長交貨期的熱門產品市場結果是10月和11月的子彈市場。 11 月 21 日，我們看到 BLPG1 創下歷史新高，達到每公噸 148 美元。 12 月相對平靜，因為市場的季節性反轉影響了產品市場，12 月下半月出現了顯著的向下修正。

For the rest of Suez market, it was likewise -- the rest of Suez likewise saw a rising market during October and November with a down mark correction in December. The rest of the Suez market was also impacted by delays at this charge for, but also had to contend with increasing delays for transiting the Panama Canal. These delay factors to vessels resulted in market players having to secure tonnage well in advance of the lake cans.

對於蘇伊士市場的其他地區，情況也是如此——蘇伊士其他地區在 10 月和 11 月同樣出現了上漲行情，並在 12 月出現了下行修正。蘇伊士運河的其他市場也受到此項費用延誤的影響，但也不得不應對越來越多的通過巴拿馬運河的延誤。這些船舶延誤因素導致市場參與者必須在湖罐之前確保噸位。

The Western Suez market did not climb at the same pace as these market, partly due to the fact that shipowners being enticed to lock in firm earnings and longer voyages. Which increased the competition for cargoes known to be destined for the Far East discharge ranges. By September, a weakening in arbitrage, as you can see in our investor deck online, due to the forward delivery prices of product in the Far East, the activity levels in the last few trading days of calendar. This resulted in a significant grade market reductions.

西蘇伊士市場沒有以與這些市場相同的速度攀升，部分原因是船東被誘使鎖定穩固的收益和更長的航程。這增加了對已知運往遠東卸貨範圍的貨物的競爭。到 9 月，由於遠東產品的遠期交付價格，以及日曆最後幾個交易日的活動水平，您可以在我們的在線投資者平台上看到套利活動減弱。這導致等級市場大幅減少。

The East and West market rates indicated a well-balanced shipping market supported by strong fundamentals, whereas in the summer, the balance shipping market demonstrated that the VLCC market could weather seasonal summer doldrums, the early into demonstrated how strong the market will rise when shipping demand increased. The positive fundamentals of the market has been deemed over the quarters. This remain, however, the market players attempting to understand the impact of the new COVID-19 normal in China and whether a world recession is looming in the horizon.

東西方市場運價表明航運市場在強勁的基本面支撐下處於平衡狀態，而在夏季，平衡的航運市場表明 VLCC 市場可以度過季節性的夏季低迷期，早盤表明航運市場將強勁上漲需求增加。市場的積極基本面在幾個季度中被認為是積極的。然而，這仍然是市場參與者試圖了解新的 COVID-19 常態對中國的影響以及世界經濟衰退是否迫在眉睫。

Despite the present external risk, propane inventories continue to build in North America, and demand for LPG remains robust. Also, there is reasonable optimism of increasing demand for LPG in China once a hard landing of sudden opening is handled with more PDH truly coming onstream and industry operating on more and the industry operating on a more stable basis.

儘管目前存在外部風險，但北美的丙烷庫存繼續增加，對液化石油氣的需求依然強勁。此外，有理由樂觀地認為，一旦突然開放的硬著陸得到解決，更多的 PDH 真正投產，行業運營更多，行業運營更加穩定，中國對 LPG 的需求將增加。

With that, now I hand it back to John.

有了這個，現在我把它還給約翰。

Yes. Thank you. As I said in the beginning, I think, we'll have the remarks briefly that John Lycouris had prepared briefly read now, and then we'll go back for questions. Thank you. [Peter]?

是的。謝謝。正如我一開始所說，我想，我們將簡要閱讀 John Lycouris 準備的評論，然後我們將返回提問。謝謝。 [彼得]？

Thank you. In John's absence, I'll give everyone a brief on scrubber operation results and our near-term ESG strategy. Starting with our scrubber fuel spreads for calendar fourth quarter '22, our third quarter '23 widened between LSFO and HSFO, benefiting our scrubber vessels with improved voyage economics averaging about $5,831 per day, net of our scrubber OpEx costs. The realized average cases were about $246 per metric ton of HSFO consumed by our scrubber vessels versus the cost of LSFO. The hybrid features of our scrubbers provided additional upside for all ECA and SECA areas of trading.

謝謝。在約翰缺席的情況下，我將向大家簡要介紹洗滌塔的運營結果和我們近期的 ESG 戰略。從我們 22 年第四季度的洗滌器燃料價差開始，我們的 23 年第三季度在 LSFO 和 HSFO 之間擴大，使我們的洗滌器船受益，平均每天約 5,831 美元的航行經濟性得到改善，扣除我們的洗滌器 OpEx 成本。與 LSFO 的成本相比，我們的洗滌器船消耗的每公噸 HSFO 的實際平均案例約為 246 美元。我們洗滌器的混合功能為所有 ECA 和 SECA 交易領域提供了額外的優勢。

In addition, scrubbers reduced not only stocks but also significantly reduce particulate matter and black carbon and we feel are necessary precursor for putting future carbon capture systems on our vessels.

此外，洗滌器不僅減少了庫存，而且還顯著減少了顆粒物和黑碳，我們認為這是在我們的船舶上安裝未來碳捕獲系統的必要先驅。

Pivoting to our ESG strategy. Our immediate focus is on our fleet's IMO mandated EEXI and CII rating, which will come into effect in stages in 2023. We are reducing emissions and improving commercial performance by installing various energy-saving devices or ESDs. We have also implemented real-time data monitoring, as we mentioned before, with sensors that track performance and optimize onboard operations and voyage completion. We combine this with robust crew training efforts, which we feel are paramount to getting this done.

轉向我們的 ESG 戰略。我們當前的重點是我們船隊的 IMO 強制性 EEXI 和 CII 評級，這些評級將於 2023 年分階段生效。我們正在通過安裝各種節能設備或 ESD 來減少排放並提高商業績效。正如我們之前提到的，我們還實施了實時數據監控，使用跟踪性能並優化船上操作和航程完成的傳感器。我們將此與強大的船員培訓工作相結合，我們認為這對於完成這項工作至關重要。

In addition, we have contracted 3 additional scrubbers, which will be installed in the next 2 quarters on 3 of our vessels, which have upcoming dry docks.

此外，我們還簽訂了 3 台額外的洗滌器合同，將在接下來的 2 個季度內安裝在我們的 3 艘即將建有乾船塢的船隻上。

Looking ahead, we are investigating the potential for carbon capture and storage onboard our vessels. We're continuing to improve our energy efficiency, onboard our vessels with a focus in vessel performance and emissions improvement, and we're continuing to study technological innovations and advances as they mature and implementing them as soon as we can.

展望未來，我們正在研究船上碳捕獲和儲存的潛力。我們將繼續提高我們的能源效率，在我們的船上專注於船舶性能和排放改善，我們將繼續研究成熟的技術創新和進步，並儘快實施它們。

With that, I'll pass it back to our Chairman.

有了這個，我會把它傳回給我們的主席。

Thank you. Thank you. And Daryl, we can go to questions now. Thank you very much.

謝謝。謝謝。達里爾，我們現在可以開始提問了。非常感謝。

Thank you. With the prepared remarks completed, we will now open the line for questions. (Operator Instructions) Our first questions come from the line of Omar Nokta with Jefferies.

謝謝。準備好的發言完成後，我們現在將打開提問熱線。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Omar Nokta。

It's a nice solid quarter obviously, and it looks like more is on the way here, especially given what we've seen in the spot market here in the past week or so. (inaudible). Sorry, John. What was that?

顯然，這是一個不錯的穩定季度，而且看起來還有更多的東西要來，尤其是考慮到我們在過去一周左右的現貨市場上看到的情況。 （聽不清）。對不起，約翰。那是什麼？

I said from your mouth to God's ear. I'm sure God is listening to the analysts, right?

我說從你的嘴到上帝的耳朵。我確定上帝正在傾聽分析師的意見，對吧？

He's looking happily on you. I would say that the dollar dividend you declared, I think, clearly, you're conditioning us to -- or I think I'm being conditioned to expect these payments and I know you're still viewing them as irregular. And you mentioned on the -- in your opening remarks that the Board takes a more pragmatic approach to the payout each quarter. But how should we think of Dorian's use of cash here as we think about the near to medium term? Are dividends the #1 priority?

他很高興地看著你。我想說的是，你宣布的美元股息，我認為，很明顯，你正在讓我們接受——或者我認為我正在接受這些支付，我知道你仍然認為它們是不正常的。你在開場白中提到，董事會對每個季度的支出採取更務實的方法。但是，當我們考慮中短期時，我們應該如何看待多里安在這裡使用現金？股息是第一要務嗎？

No. They are not, our capital allocation is our #1 priority. And our -- the way we think about the dividends are as part of a whole. And which includes -- it has included in the past, buybacks and now they could include them again. Dividends, obviously, and reserves for a rainy day and for investment so -- including renewal. So up until now, we've -- as you know, we've invested on only 1 new ship. We feel that we're covered with the 3 double fuel ships that we've chartered in, plus the new building that we're taking in for ourselves.

不，他們不是，我們的資本配置是我們的第一要務。而我們——我們對股息的看法是作為一個整體的一部分。其中包括 - 它過去包括回購，現在他們可以再次包括它們。顯然，股息和未雨綢繆和投資儲備——包括續約。所以到目前為止，我們 - 如您所知，我們只投資了一艘新船。我們覺得我們已經被租用的 3 艘雙燃料船以及我們自己租用的新建築所覆蓋。

We've got -- we're investing a little more in the scrubber because we feel that, that has given us good returns, and we think the prospects are good. So while dividends are right up there, I think you asked specifically are the first priority, and I think we should say that there are equal weight in -- that's how we view them, equal weight within every quarter capital decision allocation, which is kind of long term and medium term.

我們已經 - 我們在洗滌塔上投入了更多資金，因為我們覺得這給了我們很好的回報，而且我們認為前景很好。因此，雖然股息就在那裡，但我認為你具體問到的是第一要務，我認為我們應該說 - 這就是我們看待它們的方式，每個季度的資本決策分配中的權重相等，這很好長期和中期。

Okay. That's fair. I appreciate that color. And maybe you did mention the investment and you've got the 1 new build, the 3 charter-in and at this point, it looks like you're deploying capital on those 3 scrubbers. Just out of curiousity, you mentioned that those will carry a cost. That's about 2/3 of the initial program a few years ago. I think generally, people have just assumed that it would be more costly today. And so I just want to get a sense of what makes it cheaper this time around?

好的。這還算公平。我很欣賞那種顏色。也許你確實提到了投資，你有 1 座新船，3 艘租船，在這一點上，看起來你正在為這 3 台洗滌器部署資金。出於好奇，您提到這些會帶來成本。這大約是幾年前初始計劃的 2/3。我認為一般來說，人們只是假設今天的成本會更高。所以我只想了解是什麼讓它這次變得更便宜？

I think the production really because you're right, there should be more expensive. But if you compare it to the first time we put scrubbers on board, which was in our initial 2 new buildings, it's not only -- it's probably 1/3 of the cost, not just 1/3 of the -- 1/3 off of. So they're just -- they keep coming down. I'm sure there's -- they will level off somewhere, but they're more efficient. They're more compact, easier to install. And that's it really. I think, Ted, do you want to add to that?

我認為生產真的因為你是對的，所以應該更貴。但是如果你將它與我們第一次在船上安裝洗滌器進行比較，那是在我們最初的兩座新建築中，它不僅 - 它可能是成本的 1/3，而不僅僅是 - 1/3 的 1/3關閉。所以他們只是 - 他們一直在下降。我敢肯定 - 他們會在某個地方趨於平穩，但他們更有效率。它們更緊湊，更易於安裝。就是這樣。我想，泰德，你想補充一下嗎？

I mean I think the other thing is there was some costs when we initially did the first retrofit some basically, I'm not talking of that, but like high-tech MRIs of the structure to see exactly what it puts stuff Well, now we know the plan of the ship. So some of that we've avoided, and we've gotten better at installing them, our piece of it and the yards have gotten better, too. So it's all the learning curve, I think, like John said.

我的意思是我認為另一件事是當我們最初進行第一次改造時有一些成本基本上，我不是在談論那個，而是像結構的高科技 MRI 來確切地看到它放了什麼東西好吧，現在我們知道船的計劃。所以我們避免了其中一些，並且我們在安裝它們方面做得更好，我們的部分和院子也變得更好了。所以這就是學習曲線，我認為，就像約翰所說的那樣。

Okay. Yes. And is it -- what do you think in terms of timing? It sounds like -- I think Peter had mentioned in the second and third quarters, you expect to complete them. What's the expected sort of off-hire time for those ships?

好的。是的。它是——你認為時機如何？聽起來——我想彼得在第二和第三季度提到過，你希望完成它們。這些船隻的預計停租時間是多少？

We've modeled for the time being 30 days. That's what it's worked out to historically. We've been a little bit better than that, 27, 28 days but we've assumed 30 for our internal modeling purposes.

我們已經模擬了 30 天。這就是歷史上的結果。我們比這要好一些，27 天、28 天，但我們假設 30 天用於我們的內部建模目的。

Okay. And that will happen anyway with the surveys that are due?

好的。無論如何，到期的調查都會發生這種情況嗎？

It would, except it's worth remembering, Omar, that when we normally do our special surveys, we actually are only in dock for 15 days. So it takes sort of an additional 2 weeks to install the scrubber. So we normally do not have 30-day regular dry dockings.

它會，但值得記住的是，奧馬爾，當我們通常進行特殊調查時，我們實際上只在碼頭停留 15 天。因此安裝洗滌器需要額外 2 週的時間。所以我們通常沒有 30 天的定期幹塢。

Okay. Got it. And then maybe just one more. And I guess maybe a bit more bigger picture just on what we're seeing in the market. You referenced this earlier in the commentary. And maybe Tim, just what's been going on, I guess, with the spot market here recently? It kind of came into the year a bit softer, trended a little lower. It looks like the first couple of weeks. And then here, maybe over the past week or so we've seen a big jump. Just wondering what's driving that uptrend here recently?

好的。知道了。然後也許只有一個。而且我想根據我們在市場上看到的情況，可能會有更大的圖景。您之前在評論中提到了這一點。也許蒂姆，我猜最近這裡的現貨市場發生了什麼？它有點進入今年有點軟，趨勢有點低。看起來像頭幾週。然後在這裡，也許在過去一周左右的時間裡，我們看到了巨大的飛躍。只是想知道最近是什麼推動了這種上升趨勢？

Tim, do you want to try and make a stab at that?

蒂姆，你想嘗試一下嗎？

Yes. I think it's a combination of things that probably at the end of December, we came from a very high point and as we closed in on Christmas and the arbitrage flows in a little bit, I think people got quite keen to take the cargo that was there before the holidays, and that made the rates fall. Then you have kind of 2 weeks of quietness before people got back in the seat and in that time, it's really the, you can say, the broker setting the politic that kind of dictates the market without any much actions. So probably the market probably felt more than it should have done from that perspective.

是的。我認為這是多種因素的結合，可能在 12 月底，我們從一個非常高的點開始，隨著聖誕節臨近，套利活動開始出現，我認為人們非常熱衷於購買貨物假期前就在那裡，這使得利率下降。然後在人們回到座位之前你有 2 週的安靜時間，在那個時候，你可以說，這真的是經紀人設定的政治，在沒有任何行動的情況下支配市場。因此，從這個角度來看，市場可能感覺比它應該做的更多。

But also at the same time, as we came back, we normally see the quarter of the Chinese New Year. But this year, due to the cold spell suddenly hitting Asia we actually saw the Chinese coming back during the Chinese holidays, which normally they take a week or so before they get back in their seats. So the demand really picked up due to the cold spell in Asia and we saw them scrambling for tons even during the holidays, we normally don't see.

但同時，當我們回來時，我們通常會看到農曆新年的季度。但今年，由於寒潮突然襲擊亞洲，我們實際上看到中國人在中國假期回來，通常他們需要一周左右的時間才能回到座位上。因此，由於亞洲的寒流，需求真正回升，我們看到他們即使在假期也爭搶大量，我們通常看不到。

So that, of course, that demand opened up and kick back the action in the market and actually, when we then saw that there was actually not a length in the shipping market, which became apparent quite quickly. But as there was no demand, the previous week or activity at least and then that kind of made the market drop quite quickly and then it rebounded actually to probably where it should have been time.

因此，當然，這種需求打開了市場的行動，實際上，當我們看到航運市場實際上沒有長度時，這一點很快就變得很明顯。但由於沒有需求，至少前一周或活動沒有，然後那種情況使市場迅速下跌，然後實際上反彈到可能應該出現的位置。

Got it. I appreciate the time, guys. Congrats again on a solid quarter, and I'll turn it over.

知道了。我感謝時間，伙計們。再次祝賀一個穩定的季度，我會把它翻過來。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, if you would like Our next questions come from the line of Sean Morgan with Evercore.

謝謝。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，如果您願意 我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Sean Morgan。

Team, I want to wish John Lycouris a speedy recovery from his new surgery.

團隊，我希望 John Lycouris 能從他的新手術中早日康復。

And yes, and just kind of I guess, sort of a macro question about the market. How do you sort of think about the current order book, 1 in 5, I guess, versus the existing fleet and that the delivery schedule in '23 versus kind of some of the petchem build out in Asia and sort of the ability of the market to sort of absorb that new tonnage? Like how do you -- how do you get comfortable with sort of the rate outlook in that context?

是的，我猜有點像關於市場的宏觀問題。您如何看待當前的訂單，我猜是五分之一，與現有機隊相比，以及 23 年的交付時間表與在亞洲建立的一些 petchem 以及某種市場能力吸收新的噸位？就像你如何 - 在這種情況下你如何對利率前景感到滿意？

We think about it a lot. And we never get comfortable. We just weigh the balance of probability and to the best of our ability. So I'll let Tim give you some -- the benefit of some of the conclusions that we've reached on the projected equilibrium. We're generally, I think, a little bit more optimistic than some other people and he'll tell you why. Tim?

我們考慮了很多。我們永遠不會感到舒服。我們只是權衡概率和力所能及的平衡。所以我會讓蒂姆給你一些 - 我們就預計平衡得出的一些結論的好處。我認為，我們通常比其他人更樂觀一點，他會告訴你原因。蒂姆？

Yes. So of course, we -- one thing that you can't hide is obviously is evident to everybody is at 46 ships or so delivering in this year. But what we think we believe will balance this out the additional production, especially from the U.S., which have surprised quite a lot on the upside. So we see that most of the you could say 80% of whatever is produced in the U.S. will go to the Far East. So the demand side is really in the Far East.

是的。所以當然，我們 - 你無法隱藏的一件事顯然對每個人來說都是顯而易見的，今年交付了 46 艘左右的船。但我們認為，我們相信這將平衡額外的產量，尤其是來自美國的額外產量，這在上行方面已經出人意料。所以我們看到大多數人可以說美國生產的任何東西中有 80% 將流向遠東。所以需求方真的在遠東。

So when we model that, we see kind of around 20 ships absorbed due to that increase of volume at least, and that's without any inefficiencies.

因此，當我們對其進行建模時，我們看到至少由於體積的增加而吸收了大約 20 艘船，而且沒有任何效率低下的情況。

On top of that, then we have more congestions in the board as we see more and more as a lot of places, the infrastructure isn't built out for the increased volume, especially like India and other places. We're also seeing a lot more going into Europe due to the war in Ukraine. So here, we've also seen more delays than usual as it's bigger volumes coming in.

最重要的是，隨著我們看到越來越多的地方，我們在董事會中遇到了更多的擁堵，基礎設施並不是為了增加數量而建造的，尤其是像印度和其他地方。由於烏克蘭戰爭，我們還看到更多人進入歐洲。所以在這裡，我們也看到了比平時更多的延誤，因為進貨量更大。

And then as I think we mentioned a few times, the Panama Canal delays. We do see them increasing. You can say the -- some of the delays have been due to the quite firm container market. But again, even though that is kind of the easing off, you're going to have significant amount of LNG carriers built for the next year or delivering in the next year. And we're also going to see more Panamax container ships delivering and the new regulations in the Panama also allow another or larger container ships actually to go through as they do not have to take the tax into the box anymore.

然後正如我想我們提到過幾次，巴拿馬運河延誤了。我們確實看到它們在增加。你可以說 - 一些延誤是由於相當堅挺的集裝箱市場。但同樣，儘管這有點緩和，但你將在明年建造或交付大量液化天然氣運輸船。我們還將看到更多的巴拿馬型集裝箱船交付，巴拿馬的新規定也允許另一艘或更大的集裝箱船實際通過，因為它們不再需要將稅款放入箱中。

So we do see increased Panama Canal delays. And then we have, as Peter mentioned earlier, the regulations on the EEXI and CII, which will have an impact on the shipping fleet as VLGC normally goes very close to full speed, where you see the tanker market and the dry markets previously has not been running on full steam. So for them, the EEXI reduction is not so significant, sorry. But for VLGC, this will have an impact on fleet, which is quite significant, actually. So we see these factors as being able to absorb this shipping fleet coming in.

所以我們確實看到巴拿馬運河的延誤有所增加。然後，正如彼得之前提到的，我們有關於 EEXI 和 CII 的規定，這將對航運船隊產生影響，因為 VLGC 通常非常接近全速，而油輪市場和乾貨市場以前沒有一直在全速運轉。所以對他們來說，EEXI 的減少並不那麼顯著，抱歉。但是對於VLGC來說，這會對船隊產生影響，其實是相當大的。因此，我們認為這些因素能夠吸收進來的船隊。

That's really interesting. So basically, I think you have a little bit of a natural hedge, the downside, I guess, of more VLGCs coming in the market and obviously a larger impact from the big container ship rate. But what you're saying is that there's still only one Panama Canal and you're just going to have more congestion. So are you sort of now thinking that the new steady state is just constant congestion and the Panama canal that's effectively slowing down fleets for not just obviously VLGCs but just global fleets and increasing kind of utilization based on wait times.

這真的很有趣。所以基本上，我認為你有一點自然對沖，我猜的不利因素是更多的 VLGC 進入市場，顯然大型集裝箱船運價的影響更大。但你的意思是，巴拿馬運河仍然只有一條，而且只會更加擁堵。所以你現在是否認為新的穩定狀態只是持續的擁堵和巴拿馬運河，這有效地減緩了船隊的速度，不僅明顯是 VLGC，而且只是全球船隊，以及基於等待時間的利用率增加。

Yes. I would -- that is our view. I mean you have about 260 new Panamax container ships on order and about 250 LNG new Panamax ships on order. So this will -- not all of them will naturally use a canal, but there is more ships going in that way. And I think the LNG from the U.S. eventually even though you've seen it lately due to the ore going into Europe. There will be more going to the east as well.

是的。我願意——這是我們的觀點。我的意思是你有大約 260 艘新的巴拿馬型集裝箱船和大約 250 艘新的液化天然氣巴拿馬型船。所以這將 - 並不是所有的人都會自然地使用運河，但有更多的船隻走這條路。我認為來自美國的液化天然氣最終會出現，儘管你最近看到它是因為礦石進入歐洲。也會有更多人去東部。

So I think the utilization of the Panama Canal will be or it will be more busy. And we have also seen LPG carriers probably being the hard ahead of those because we are excluded from booking ahead well where other liners and LNG carriers that can speculatively book slots a year ahead. LPG ships can only book 14 days ahead for the canal and due to the ranking that most companies have, and then that is an issue as the larger container lines have the higher rankings. So I see this increase continue.

所以我認為巴拿馬運河的利用將會或者會更加繁忙。我們還看到液化石油氣運輸船可能領先於那些運輸船，因為我們被排除在提前預訂之外，而其他班輪和液化天然氣運輸船可以提前一年提前預訂。由於大多數公司的排名，液化石油氣船隻能提前 14 天預訂運河，這是一個問題，因為較大的集裝箱航線排名較高。所以我看到這種增長仍在繼續。

And also the Panama Canal authorities have increased the cost of the LPG carriers passing. I guess the LPG carriers is the smallest ship that can pass that count party canal and thus giving the lease revenue to the canal. So we see significant increases of the actual transit cost plus people is most of the time having to bid for the auctions, which goes everything from $100,000 to $2 million on the auction fee. So we're seeing more people also taking the longer route around the Cape or through the Suez Canal to ensure that they can actually meet their hands and have a firmer schedule.

巴拿馬運河當局還增加了液化石油氣運輸船通過的成本。我想液化石油氣運輸船是可以通過那條運河的最小的船，從而給運河帶來租賃收入。所以我們看到實際運輸成本顯著增加，加上人們大部分時間不得不競標拍賣，拍賣費用從 10 萬美元到 200 萬美元不等。因此，我們看到越來越多的人也選擇繞過好望角或穿過蘇伊士運河的較長路線，以確保他們能真正與他們見面，並有一個更確定的時間表。

So also that longer route will give some more tons in the balance of things. And that consideration is done due to the delays and due to the uncertainties and the auction fees, of course, we also now to know what will be. So these things, I think is there to stay.

因此，更長的路線也會在事物的平衡中提供更多的噸位。由於延遲、不確定性和拍賣費用，我們已經做出了考慮，當然，我們現在也知道會發生什麼。所以這些東西，我認為會留下來。

And then if I could just squeeze in one more on this. I think, Ted, in the prepared remarks said that the Baltic rate reflects Ras Tanura-Chiba route. If I'm hearing it correctly, it's almost sounding like he doesn't view that as maybe as central and important route relative to the actual rates that you guys are seeing at your charter best. So what routes do you think like now are kind of more indicative of how the trade is really happening for VLGCs on kind of a weekly basis?

然後，如果我能再擠一個就可以了。我想，Ted，在準備好的發言中說，波羅的海費率反映了 Ras Tanura-Chiba 航線。如果我沒聽錯的話，這聽起來幾乎就像他不認為相對於你們在包租時看到的實際費率而言，這可能是中心和重要的路線。那麼，您認為現在什麼樣的路線更能說明 VLGC 每週的交易情況？

Sean, let me take this as 2 questions, actually, and we'll give you 2 answers. Tim will answer you specifically on the part of your question, which is what kind of mix -- the trade, how we should think of the mix, right? Because it's not just AG East, obviously, it's a Western route. And even the West is both AG U.S. Gulf East, but also U.S. Gulf to the continent and other short term. So I'll let him give you that.

肖恩，實際上，讓我把這當作 2 個問題，我們會給你 2 個答案。 Tim 會在你的問題部分具體回答你，這是一種什麼樣的組合——交易，我們應該如何思考組合，對嗎？因為不只是AG東線，很明顯，是西線。甚至西邊既是AG美灣東，又是美灣到大陸等短線。所以我會讓他給你那個。

But first, I want to shed to address the reason why he said the lag and the 100% because when you -- I notice that most analysts now use a 1-month lag on the VLGC rate on the AG rate. And of course, it's still 100% utilization, which is fine. But I think -- I'd like Ted to explain to you why we think the 1-month lag will not reflect the actual earnings because the lag and receipt of freight is at least 2 months. Ted, do you want to?

但首先，我想說明他說滯後和 100% 的原因，因為當你——我注意到大多數分析師現在對 AG 利率的 VLGC 利率使用 1 個月的滯後。當然，它仍然是 100% 的利用率，這很好。但我想 - 我想 Ted 向您解釋為什麼我們認為 1 個月的滯後不會反映實際收入，因為運費的滯後和接收至少有 2 個月。泰德，你想要嗎？

Yes, sure. Yes. So Sean, exactly what John said. So aside from there being a mix, it's really the business, it's really the cycle, right? Our guys are booking now here at the beginning of February, for voyages that won't complete until at the earliest sort of April and maybe even further out. And so as a result, when you're trying to undertake a modeling exercise -- and given how the loaded -- or sorry, the revenue recognition accounting works, you really tend to find that it's that a 2-month lagged average is going to be a lot better.

是的，當然。是的。肖恩，正是約翰所說的。所以除了混合之外，這真的是生意，這真的是周期，對吧？我們的人現在正在 2 月初在這裡預訂，航行最早要到 4 月才能完成，甚至可能更遠。因此，當您嘗試進行建模練習時 - 考慮到加載方式 - 或者抱歉，收入確認會計工作，您真的傾向於發現 2 個月的滯後平均值正在發生變得更好。

Tim will give you more on the specific trade lines, and there's some -- the rates behave differently there, particularly we've seen U.S. Gulf to Northwest Europe be a sweet spot, but Tim will comment on that. But it's really just simply a better -- look, there's no perfect way to do this, and we acknowledge that, but we wanted to give a little guidance to the investment community about how to maybe narrow or make it somewhat more accurate.

蒂姆會給你更多關於特定貿易線路的信息，而且有一些 - 那裡的利率表現不同，特別是我們看到美國墨西哥灣到西北歐是一個最佳地點，但蒂姆會對此發表評論。但這實際上只是一種更好的方法——看，沒有完美的方法可以做到這一點，我們承認這一點，但我們想就如何縮小範圍或使其更準確一些向投資界提供一些指導。

And again, I mean, averages are tricky. We book somewhere around 9 to 10 voyages a month and they're 20-some-odd working days in any given month. So it becomes quite tricky to strike broad averages, but we at least feel that looking at a 2-month lag is going to give you a better indication of what we expect to see intra-quarter and what you can expect to see when we deliver quarterly results.

再一次，我的意思是，平均數很棘手。我們每月預訂大約 9 到 10 次航次，每個月都有 20 多個工作日。因此，要達到廣泛的平均水平變得非常棘手，但我們至少認為，觀察 2 個月的滯後會讓您更好地了解我們期望看到的季度內情況以及您期望在我們交付時看到的情況季度業績。

You want to hear from Tim about our mix actually, yes, or no?

你想從蒂姆那裡聽到關於我們混音的實際情況，是或否？

That would be good, actually.

實際上，那會很好。

Okay, Sean. It was a great question. Tim, have a go and you can do it quickly.

好的，肖恩。這是一個很好的問題。蒂姆，試一試，你很快就能做到。

Okay. I'll try to (inaudible). But yes, as Ted mentioned, there's basically 3 routes, so the Ras Tanura-Chiba or East of Middle East to Far East. And then there's around U.S. Gulf to the Far East and U.S. Gulf to Europe. And there are actually indexes for these 3 routes. They are not used very much because there have been too illiquid and you can say, trading purposes and other which was really the intended for these routes to be published. So they're not really used on a paper trading basis, and the market is not so big to have too many indexes, which makes them equipped.

好的。我會嘗試（聽不清）。但是，是的，正如 Ted 提到的，基本上有 3 條路線，所以 Ras Tanura-Chiba 或中東東部到遠東。然後是美國海灣到遠東和美國海灣到歐洲。這 3 條路線實際上有索引。它們使用不多，因為流動性太差，您可以說，交易目的和其他真正打算發布這些路線的目的。所以他們並不是真正在紙上交易的基礎上使用，市場也沒有那麼大，沒有太多的指標，這讓他們有了裝備。

But you can say our trading is probably 80% out of the U.S. and 20% out of the 18% and the U.S. East is the most active spot market routes -- of the routes. And it's also the longer route. So if I say it will have a bigger impact taxing on U.S. to the East than 80 to the East or by U.S. to the West. So it will employ the ship for 70 days instead of 30 to 40 days. So that route is really the most significant route, I would say, to match it up.

但你可以說我們的交易可能有 80% 來自美國，20% 來自 18%，而美國東部是最活躍的現貨市場航線。這也是更長的路線。因此，如果我說它對美國向東方徵稅的影響將大於對東方 80 或美國對西方徵稅的影響。因此它將使用這艘船 70 天而不是 30 到 40 天。所以這條路線真的是最重要的路線，我會說，匹配它。

And of course, people will change from one patient to the other. If one of the route is paying far less than the other ones, but it's a matter of how do you deploy your ships and which cargo do you go for and where do you come open. But I would say the most traded route is U.S. to the Far East or kind of watch out for that as well as to kind of judge your earnings.

當然，人們會從一個病人變成另一個病人。如果其中一條航線的費用遠低於其他航線，但這是一個問題，你如何部署你的船隻，你去哪些貨物，你從哪裡開。但我想說交易量最大的航線是美國到遠東，或者要注意這一點並判斷你的收入。

And there, like Ted said on the AG East the index route doesn't take into account Panama waiting, and it doesn't take into account I think, time as well or auction fees for the Panama Canal. So again, when you calculate the TCE returns on those, you will have to take that with the pinch sold as well. And then you have the premium market has been U.S. to the West where that's a difficult market to operate in because you are open quite close to the low ports and as I mentioned before, sometimes the fixtures are 5 to 6 weeks ahead when we fixed a ship. So you're hardly opening the AG when you are open in the Far East or when you fix the ships let alone open 14 days on the low port.

在那裡，就像 Ted 在 AG East 上所說的那樣，索引路線沒有考慮巴拿馬等待，而且我認為它沒有考慮時間或巴拿馬運河的拍賣費用。因此，當您計算這些的 TCE 回報時，您也必須將其與已售出的部分一起計算在內。然後你有高端市場一直是美國到西方，這是一個很難經營的市場，因為你在離低端港口很近的地方開放，正如我之前提到的，有時當我們固定一個時，固定裝置會提前 5 到 6 週船。因此，當您在遠東或修理船隻時，您幾乎不會打開 AG，更不用說在低端口打開 14 天了。

So a lot of people avoid giving ending up in the West due to these reasons. But they do pay a premium. So if you kind of figure out how to manage it, then it's an attractive market for some. But that also, again, when you then your earnings, it's really depending on where I come open on the previous version in the West and go to the Far East, of course, I will give you a significantly higher return on discharge versus ballasting from the East and then ending up on a short voyage in the West.

因此，由於這些原因，很多人避免放棄在西方結束。但他們確實支付了溢價。所以如果你想出如何管理它，那麼它對某些人來說是一個有吸引力的市場。但是，同樣，當你然後你的收入時，這實際上取決於我在西方打開以前版本並去遠東的地方，當然，我會給你一個顯著更高的放電回報而不是壓載東方，然後結束在西方的短途航行。

So these are kind of the variances as you see in these ways that we fix sometimes 5 to 6 weeks ahead, if the market is tight. If the market is not so tight, then you will fix 2 to 3 weeks ahead in the West. But in the East, it will be more like 10 to 30 days ahead of the picture of 30 days in the tight market, 10 days in a not so tight market. And that's, of course, again, kind of the lag that we will have to use would depend on how tight the market is and how far it goes.

因此，如果市場緊張，我們有時會提前 5 到 6 周修复這些差異。如果市場不是那麼緊張，那麼你會提前 2 到 3 週確定西方的價格。但在東部，市場緊張 30 天和不太緊張的市場 10 天的情況更像是提前 10 到 30 天。當然，這又是我們必須使用的一種滯後，這取決於市場的緊張程度和市場的發展程度。

Thanks, Tim. I mean, Sean, does that give you more than you want or?

謝謝，蒂姆。我的意思是，肖恩，這會給你帶來比你想要的更多的東西嗎？

Yes. No, that's great, Tim. A lot of deep nuance on kind of how it works.

是的。不，太好了，蒂姆。關於它的工作原理有很多細微差別。

We thought it would be useful.

我們認為它會有用。

Daryl, I think we're done. Thank you very much, everyone, for joining us, and we look forward to our next quarter's call. Thanks again. Bye-bye.

達里爾，我想我們已經完成了。非常感謝大家加入我們，我們期待著下一季度的電話會議。再次感謝。再見。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路。享受你剩下的一天。