Dorian LPG Ltd (LPG) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Dorian LPG First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Additionally, a live audio webcast of today's conference call is available on Dorian LPG's website, which is www.dorianlpg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ted Young, Chief Financial Officer. Thank you, Mr. Young. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining us for our first quarter 2023 results conference call. With me today are John Hadjipateras, Chairman, President and CEO of Dorian LPG Limited; John Lycouris, Chief Executive Officer of Dorian LPG USA; and Tim Hansen, Chief Commercial Officer. As a reminder, this conference call webcast and a replay of this call will be available through August 10, 2022. Many of our remarks today contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations. These statements may often be identified with words such as expect, anticipate, believe or similar indications of future expectations. Although we believe that such forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot assure you that any forward-looking statements will prove to be correct.

These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors as well as general economic conditions. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize or should underlying assumptions or estimates prove to be incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those we express today.

Additionally, let me refer you to our unaudited results for the period ended June 30, 2022, that were filed this morning on Form 10-Q. In addition, please refer to our previous filings on Form 10-K, where you'll find risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements. With that, I'll turn the call over to John Hadjipateras.

Thanks, Ted, and thank you for joining John, Ted, Tim and me to discuss our first quarter financial year 2023 results. The War in Ukraine has added complexity to our crew operation, and our crew departments work diligently and quickly to ensure safety and well-being of many of our Ukrainian seafarers. The cover pandemic and recent port closures in China have continued to create challenges around crew changes.

But through close interdepartmental coordination, we have managed these challenges well and without creating major deviations or delays. Global LPG exports increased 2.6 million tons or about 5% in the first 6 months of this year compared to the same period last year, with the Middle East as the main contributor to global export growth, up 13% year-on-year. Estimates for U.S. exports point to further growth in 2022 and 2023. We -- in its July short-term energy outlook report the EIA estimated that U.S. LPG exports will grow in '22 and expect the trend to continue with exports increasing in '23 driven by continued production growth and flat domestic demand. Tim will give you more details on this supply growth and our view of the market. We are leveraging our in-house expertise to optimize our fleet's technical and commercial performance.

Our bunkering manager and the chartering operations departments are making considerable impact on sourcing best quality and best price buckets for our fleet and our pool fleet. The price spread between heavy fuel oil and low sulfur fuel oil currently at about $300 per ton is providing a good return on our investment in scrubbers. The 2023 IMO emission regulations are coming up quickly, and our technical and fleet performance teams have been actively assessing and ordering retrofit equipment, which will reduce our consumption and emission footprint.

Through the diligent assessment of hardware and software retrofits on our ships, we will be able to meet IMO targets and continue to harness the superior earnings potential of our modern fleet. John will give you much more information on this shortly. Considering the age profile of our fleet, our dual fuel newbuilding, the time charter of 3 dual fuel new ships and the additional flexibility following the refinancing of our term facility, which we announced today, we are well positioned to pursue an optimal capital allocation strategy.

Our declaration of a $1 per share dividend supports this view and demonstrates our continued commitment to shareholders, which is possible because of our focus on serving our charter as well and ensuring the well-being of our seafarers and shore side staff to whom we are grateful. I will now pass the line over to Ted for more on this in our financial results.

Thanks, John. My comments today will focus on the reasonable capital allocation events, our financial position and liquidity, as well as our unaudited first quarter results. You may wish to refer to the investor highlight materials posted this morning on our website.

At June 30, 2022, we reported $155.5 million of free cash. During the quarter ended June 30, we voluntarily prepaid $25 million of debt under our 2015 AR facility and refinanced the Cougar, which generated about $30 million in net proceeds. We, of course, also paid out roughly $100 million in dividends. As John also just mentioned, we will pay another $1 per share as an irregular dividend or roughly $40 million in total in dividends on or about September 2 to shareholders of record as of August 15.

Since the quarter ended, we concluded a new $260 million loan agreement that will refinance debt related to our 2015 AR facility, the Corvette and the Concorde. The Concorde actually won't happen until September 6. In total, debt across the 8 vessels in the facility today and the Concorde and the Corvette was about $242 million. And the new facility will begin with $240 million of term debt drawn. So it is a leverage neutral transaction for us. We're extremely pleased to be working with Credit Agricole, ING and SEB again and to welcome BNP Paribas and DSF that's Dana Ship Finance to our loan facility.

We have summarized key terms of the new facility in the investor highlights materials posted this morning. A few highlights though. The facility is 7 years in duration, carries an interest rate of SOFR plus 2.20 and has a 20-year age-adjusted profile, which translates into $5 million of quarterly amortization. We will also have an undrawn $20 million revolver at close. In addition, we have a sustainability feature that can reduce our margin if we are ahead of IMO trajectory values on our AER, average emissions ratio, which we were at year-end December 31, 2021.

The new facility has identical financial covenants to those of the current facility. More importantly, it moves our nearest debt refinancing event from 2015 out to 2027, which is our ball cap facility. And of course, it moves out the maturity on the old 2015 AR facility from 2025 all the way out to 20 -- or fiscal 2030 or July 2029.

Also and finally, we will be able to maintain our existing hedges, which are priced quite attractively, although we will convert them from LIBOR to SOFR. We expect that the SOFR equivalent rate on both swaps will be below 1%.

With the debt balance at quarter end of $663.7 million, our debt-to-total-book capitalization stood at 44% and our net debt to net total cap at 34%. With our new debt facility, an undrawn revolver, and one debt-free vessel, coupled with our strong free cash balance, we have a comfortable measure of financial flexibility. We expect our cash cost per day for the coming year to be approximately $23,000 per day.

I'll now turn to our first quarter results. And again, we've summarized most of this information in the investor highlights materials that were posted this morning. For the first quarter, we achieved total utilization of 95.9% with a daily TCE, that's time charter equivalent revenue over operating days, as we define those terms in our filings, of $39,608, yielding utilization adjusted TCE that's TCE revenue per available day of about $37,986. Spot TCE per available day, which reflects our portion of the net profits of the Helios Pool for the quarter, was about $38,416.

Also, overall, the Helios Pool reported a spot TCE, including COAs of approximately $40,165 per day -- per available day for the quarter.

Daily OpEx was $9,378 for the 3 months ended June 30, 2022. That was virtually flat sequentially with the prior quarter. Crew costs trended down, reflecting a somewhat more normal operating environment, and they were offset a little bit by modest increases in repairs and maintenance and spares and stores. Our time charter in expense for the 2 time charter in vessels remained stable at $5.4 million.

Total G&A for the quarter was $9.4 million and cash G&A, that's G&A excluding noncash compensation expense, was about $8.8 million. That number included $3.2 million of cash bonuses paid during the quarter. Plus our core G&A, really what we consider we incur quarter-to-quarter to run the business, was $5.6 million, which is consistent with our expectations.

On that basis, our reported adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $46.9 million. As we've said, we look at cash interest expense on our debt as the sum of the line items, interest expense, excluding deferred financing fees and other loan expenses and realized gain/loss on interest rate swap derivatives. On that basis, total cash interest expense for the quarter was $6.5 million, which only reflected half a quarter with the Cougar financing in place. When we have a full quarter of the Cougar and the full quarter of the new bank facility, we estimate that our cash interest expense will be about $7.7 million.

Although we currently hold a 90.7% economic interest in Helios, we do not consolidate its P&L or balance sheet accounts, which has the effect of understating our cash and working capital, as we believe it is useful to provide some additional insight in order to give a more complete picture. As of Tuesday, August 2, 2022, the Pool had roughly $26.8 million of cash on hand.

The dividend declared today of $1 per share brings to $5.50 per share in dividends that we have paid in the last year. Together with our open market stock repurchases and our $113.5 million self-tender offer, we will have returned over $444 million to our shareholders since our IPO. The significant dividend payments in the last year underscore our Board's commitment to a sensible capital allocation policy, the balances market outlook, operating and capital needs of the business, and an appropriate level of risk tolerance given the volatility in shipping. With a solid freight market backdrop, we remain cautiously optimistic about our cash flow generation over the coming months.

With that, I'll pass it over to Tim Hansen.

Thank you, Ted, and good day, everyone. Thanks for dialing in. The second quarter of 2022 saw increased LPG export and import demand. The global seaborne LPG transport for the second quarter was almost 2 million tons above the levels that we saw during the first quarter. North American export continued to increase on the back of record-setting production levels. Middle East export volumes has also shown growth, particularly from United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The export volumes for the second quarter was the highest second quarter on record, indicating that the OPEC+ production cost reversals have indeed had a positive impact on the LPG transport.

Freight levels for both BLPG1 and BLPG 3, which are the indexes for the East and West market respectively, were higher than in Q1 and even with bunker prices fluctuating and going somewhat up, earnings still increased versus previous quarter. The East of Suez markets saw the BLPG1 benchmark for AG to cheaper carrying the freight momentum from March into April, primarily due to a firm west market that absorbed lesser capacity. During May, there was a period of inactivity due to the Gold Week holidays, but by the end of May, a sudden burst of activity from the Middle East producers, JOLCO vessel, supply-demand balance and the BLPG1 jumped above $100 per metric ton for the first time since January 21.

The rapid rise in the freight index was quickly followed by a downward correction in June, bringing the numbers more in line with what was seen in April. For the west of Suez market, April likewise carried on the momentum from the previous quarter, as was also the case in the East. May was the most active months. The beginning of the month was somewhat negatively impacted by a lot of vessels ballasting in from the Far East.

But 1 major exporter released a flurry of inquiries at mid-May, freight rates increased significantly. As a case in the East, June was a month of downward correction. Although activity remained firm, the burst of exports from both East and West markets during May oversupplied the forward cargo delivery market and there was 2 opportunistic cargo liftings, both from the U.S. and Asia or Middle East Asia in June as the [ARP] narrowed.

It was expected that the second quarter '22 would see firm LPG demand, increased North American production and increased Middle East export. And this all transpired as well as market adapting to the realities of the war in Europe. For example, VLGCs has been slowing down to enact a control of cost of bunker consumption amidst dramatically high bunker prices.

The second quarter also saw a renewed impact of the COVID-19-related lockdowns in China, while worry still loomed about recessions in the news. The worries of reduced LPG demand, specifically for China import and globally also were a factor for market players, which we saw being more risk adverse and reducing opportunistic trades.

The impact of these macroeconomic factors for the next quarter remains to be seen, but LPG fundamentals heading into a winter -- heading into winter remains positive. And inventories in the U.S. continue to rise. Propane is still the preferred feedstock for steam cracking and in the Far East, they are going into the stockpiling season.

Furthermore, there is more PDH plants in the Far East coming online and is ready to increase the LPG demand. All these fundamentals are favorable for what is seasonally a period of firm activity for the VLGC market.

With that, I will pass over to John Lycouris.

Thank you, Tim. In the last quarter -- in the last quarter, the concerns of a global economic recession outweighed the supply chain concerns of the previous quarter and caused oil markets to retreat from their highs. It is interesting to note that the global very-low sulfur fuel oil prices did not follow the oil markets moved to lower levels. Refiners have been struggling to replace Russian exports of middle distillate products, causing them to outpace Brent crude prices as has the very-low sulfur fuel oil, which requires blending of distillates to produce.

According to Shipandbunker.com, very-low sulfur fuel oil has significantly outstripped global crude oil markets, hitting a record high on July 5 of $314 per metric ton or 141% of the Brent crude price. Taking the average of the major bunkering hubs, very-low sulfur fuel oil currently stands at 110% of Brent crude price. A more significant development for Dorian LPG has been the average bunker fuel spread of the heavy fuel oil to the very-low sulfur fuel oil, which reached almost $400 per metric ton during July.

For the second quarter of 2022, our average savings were about $270 per metric ton for heavy fuel oil supplied to our vessels against the very-low sulfur fuel oil prices. Our original expectations continue to be validated, not only with our selection of hybrid multi-loop scrubbers as opposed to open single loops, but also with our investment payback estimates, having paid back more than 73% of the equipment, capital expenditure and all the installation costs.

As we move closer to 2023, we continue the plan to retrofit various energy saving devices to own our fleet, which in conjunction with engine power limitation when applied, will improve the fuel efficiency, reduce emissions and render the fleet capable to exceed the upcoming EEXI and CII regulations.

The close monitoring and optimization of energy consumption onboard our vessels support our initiatives on vessel performance and emissions reduction. In general, younger vessels will have to implement less extensive retrofits and EPL to comply, meaning they will enjoy a greater trading flexibility compared to older, less efficient ones.

Our new tech department is following latest developments on novel technologies that will improve the environmental score of our fleet. Several promising solutions exist, including partial carbon capture and storage, which we believe leads to improving decarbonization of our fleet. For the time being, our objective is to implement marine technologies that have a good track record results, while researching into -- researching into innovative solutions until they become available and commercially mature. Our decision to invest in scrubbers was possible because of our financial strength and has helped us generate very solid results, which gives us confidence as we look forward and evaluate the next wave in marine technology advancements.

There have been some significant regulatory updates regarding shipping's enrollment into the EU emissions trading system. All 3 EU institutions, the Commission, the Council and the Parliament agree on the inclusion of shipping, but disagree on the timing, progression and intensity of the rules.

The negotiations process and the ultimate finalization were set to begin, but quite possibly -- were set to begin about now, but quite possibly will extend into 2023, pushing implementation date to 2024. The EU faced with the ongoing energy crisis is under increased pressure to either suspend the emissions trading system or increase the number of available allowances, bringing the cost of carbon compliance down, ultimately reducing inflation in the EU.

The IMO's MEPC 78 session was conducted in early June, and finalized all technical guidelines for EEXI, CII and SEEMP Part III implementation. CII correction factors and voyage exclusions for certain operational conditions were also decided. Moreover, it produced to render the Mediterranean Sea as a special emissions zone effective July 1, 2025, which means that ships navigating these waters either have to burn 0.1% sulfur fuel oil, which is the low sulfur medium gas oil or be fitted with an exhaust gas cleaning system. The proposal will be presented for adoption at MEPC 78 in December 2022.

Meantime, the committee continues its work on developing the life cycle greenhouse gas and carbon intensity guidelines for marine fuels, which are expected to be approved at MEPC 80, which is in July 2023. If passed, a well to wait emissions approach will be adopted, which will significantly alter the environmental profile of existing and alternative marine fuels.

At Dorian, our goal is to continue improving our greenhouse gas footprint, eventually reaching 0 emissions target. And we're optimistic that our fleet will be among the best positioned to meet the demands of charters, regulators and shareholders.

And now I will pass it over back to John Hadjipateras.

Thank you, John, and we're ready to open for questions. If anyone has something to ask, we are here.

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Omar Nokta with Jefferies.

I wanted to ask about capital allocation. You guys definitely over the past 2 years, have really ramped up the shareholder rewards with the buybacks, the tender offer, the special dividend and the regular dividend. I did want to ask, we're starting to see these irregular dividends becoming more frequent. And just wanted to ask, what are your thoughts on dropping that moniker irregular and going with regular in the future?

Thanks for the question, Omar. It's something I'll let Ted answer and give you -- because we've been discussing that. But we're coming from the -- from a point of view that I think at the moment, we're happy with where -- with how we describe it. And I think our shareholders are happy to receive what they've been receiving. But -- so before I let you go on to Ted, I want to congratulate you on your new position and good luck. We're looking forward to working with you.

So Omar, yes, it's a fair question. I think the alternative would be some sort of a formula. And we kind of struggle because there is not a great match between income statement accounting and shipping and cash flow necessarily. So for example, a common metric has been EPS for people to pay out. So if you look at this quarter, right, we recorded $0.62 of net income. We paid out 133% or something. That's not a customary ratio. And while I know people like to be able to expect something, we think given the volatility that we've seen in shipping, we think kind of our approach of [care] makes the most sense, because while we're obviously focused on doing right by shareholders, 1 of the ways we think we can best do it is by focusing on total shareholder return.

Trying to manage for stock price or yield is going to be awfully tough in this sector, whereas as we pay dividends, that does improve our total shareholder return, which we think is our shareholders care about.

I appreciate that. It's just good to kind of hear your perspective, definitely feels maybe more and more with each passing quarter. I'm not sure if it's conviction, I guess, that's the right word, but it definitely feels you guys are more confident in how you're positioned, especially with the -- recently with the -- as you refinanced your debt. I then maybe want to ask a bit more of a bigger picture kind of looking at the company and the business.

It looks like cargo flow here has been pretty plentiful in recent months, as you guys outlined and it looks like that's going to continue from OPEC and from the U.S. We do also have a sizable order book as we look into next year. How do you think about Dorian's positioning in the market as we move ahead here over the next, say, 18 months?

Tim, do you want to give our perspective on that?

Yes. So as you rightly say, there's a lot of new buildings coming into the market. I think we have or buy -- sold a few of the older ships. You also, as John mentioned, have 1 new building and 3 long-term time charters coming. So I think we kind of keep our position in the market size-wise, even though the market is growing. And we also see that this supply that we expect from the U.S., which have been much more positive than previously forecasted and the ramp-up of the Middle East suppliers is going to be enough to support the market and keep the market growing even with the number of new buildings coming in. That is being helped also.

I think we mentioned last call also by the new regulations in '23 with where we expect somewhat slowdown of the world fleet, and also, we are still seeing a lot of delays in Panama and so on. So we think all in all, these you can say, inefficiencies in the market will end the huge production and increase of products will be enough to absorb renewal in fleet and take our sales through the next couple of years and then start looking better again.

(Operator Instructions) This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to the Chairman and CEO for any closing remarks.

Thanks a lot. And wishing you all a good August and look forward to seeing you and hearing you at the next quarter call. Thank you very much.

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.