使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Moderator
This is Premiere Conferencing, please
stand by. We are about to begin. Good morning, everyone
and welcome to the Lowe's Companies first quarter earnings
release conference call. This call is being recorded.
Statements made during this call my include forward-looking
statements within the meaning of Section 27-A of the Securities
and Exchange act. The company believes that such statements
are reasonable, it can give no assurance they will prove
to be correct. Possible risks and uncertainties are detailed
in the company's May 20th, 2002, earnings release and the
company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Hosting today's conference will be Mr. Robert Tillman, president
and CEO, Larry Stone and Mr. Robert Niblock, executive
vice president and chief financial officer. Please note the
call will conclude at 9:40 EST. I will turn the
call over to Robert Tillman. Please go ahead.
Robert Tillman - President and CEO
Thank
you for joining us. Today after hearing from Robert Niblock,
chief financial officer and Larry Stone, we will review
the factors that drove our performance during the quarter.
The first - I would like to highlight a few items from
the first quarter results. Sales in the quarter total
$6.5 billion a 22.6 percent increase over last year. Comparable
store sales increased 7.5 for the quarter.
During the quarter, we experienced widespread sprints across
geographic regions and product categories. Our strong
results are also a sign that our initiatives like SOS, CBC
and installed sales are working to drive incramental sales
across our chain. During the quarter, we continued our
focus on metro markets and continue to be pleased with the
results our Metro market stores are [inaudible], particularly
in the northeast and western U.S.
For our expansion in the first quarter, more than 50 percent
of our stores are in Metro markets, which we define as
MSA's with 500,000 people. Our Metro market growth continues
this year with nearly 65 percent of our expansion occurring
in Metro markets. Highlighting of the items on the income
statement, we achieved a record [inaudible] of 29.7 percent,
which when combined with effective expense controls drove
pre-tax earnings to a Lowe's record 8.5 percent, quite
an accomplishment considering the difficulty many others
experienced during the first quarter. The results we delivered
for the past several quarters certainly adds to our conviction
we have a successful model, despite concerns about the economy,
the American consumer continues to spend and home improvement
customers remain willing to invest in their homes.
We approach the balance of the year with optimism, but
continue to keep a sharp eye on unemployment, housing trends
and the effect these have on the consumer. Our optimism
comes from the fact we know we are putting the right stores
and the right markets with the right assortments of product
and services, all supported with a marketing program driving
traffic.
We will continue to approach the year with some caution
and to the economic pilot climate becomes more clear. Our
caution hasn't slowed expansion plans. In the first quarter,
we opened 46 stores, including four relocations, while closing
1 older and smaller store, bringing total store count to
785. Square footage increased to 86 million square feet
and 19.7 percent increase over the first quarter of 2001.
We remain on plan to open 123 new stores this year. However,
we won't rest on the success of our first quarter. Our
business process improvement teams remain focused on eliminating
wastes and inefficiency. We will continue to diligently
control expenses, while at the same time ensuring service
levels in our stores remain high. We will continue to
leverage our distribution and support infrastructure as
we drive higher volumes through our big stores. Focus
on these initiatives will ensure a better shopping experience
and continue improving home improvement for customers.
With that, let me turn the call over to Larry Stone.
Larry Stone - EVP Store Operations
Thanks,
Bob. I would like to talk about sales trends, highlights
by Metro market stores, as well as details to the store
managers to drive increased sales and productivity out of
our store base. First, we were impressed with the quarter.
We experienced positive comps in 17 or 18 regions. The
only negative region experienced unseasonably cold and wet
weather during the quarter, which nipped sales. Our regional
sales balance shows consumers are willing to invest in their
home, despite the economic environment. We saw a balance
across product categories, with no one category driving
our performance. In fact, all 17 product categories experienced
positive comps in the first quarter.
We continue to be please wide above-average comps in appliances.
We achieved 12.1 percent share of the appliance market
at the end of the first calendar quarter, up from 9.3 percent
in the first quarter of 2001. This market share gain exceeded
all other competitors and supports our belief consumers
prefer offering of premium national brands with 250 SKU's
in stock in a bright, clean, shopable environment. We
are not resting on our success. Despite our strong market
share gains, we continue to invest in our stores. This
year, we will remerchandise the appliance areas of 170 of
our existing stores.
Those stores don't have the newest sets. To provide an
even better service to customers. The investment we are
making is representative of our continued investment in
the future and our dedication to provide customers with
the best home improvement stores in the industry. Our
outdoor power equipment category also performed well during
the quarter. Many of you have heard us describe our intentions
to offer well-known brands in this category to exclusive
agreements with [inaudible]. Those new brands help drive
double digit comps during the quarter and also served to
re-enforce our strategy. Lumber, millwork and hardware
delivered solid comp increases during the quarter, a sign
commercial business initiatives are providing continued
success. Our [inaudible] categories remain strong, also
delivering double digit comps in the quarter.
As Bob mentioned, we are still very pleased with results
we are seeing in the Metro markets around the country,
especially the strong store performance experienced in the
northeast and west. In the second quarter, we will add
to Metro store base by opening two stores in the Boston
area. We continue to add stores in the Metro markets
in California and our plans to store the greater New York
city area continue with a new store in Homedale New Jersey
and a second store in Long Island, expected to open in
the third quarter of the year. While the results we are
experiencing grate enthusiasm about expansion, we know that
the key to our continued success lies in the efficient and
proper alteration of our existing store base. We can't
and I won't allow our comp store base to lose sight of
the fact we must continue to improve execution in our existing
stores everyday.
It all hinges on our vision, which is for a customer's
first choice store in each and every market we serve. We
continue to be focused on the fundamentals of retailing.
We challenged our stores to improve on five measures this
year. Customer service, inventory strength, employee turnover,
inventory turnover and management involvement. Our first
quarter results show we are making progress. The first
step in building a strong retail foundation is to provide
exceptional customer service. We have made great strides
in the service we deliver in stores. Independent surveys
show we have reached [inaudible] from in the industry.
We must strive to be better. As good as is not good enough.
We know that we can drive higher volume by increasing
the average ticket. Our real focus is to drive more traffic
through the stores. This is accomplished by using staffing
plans that better match payroll and sales and improve stock
programs and clear direction of our cross-merchandising,
are just a few examples of new plans we have grown to improve
service.
This year we completely revamped our customer first program.
A program developed a few years ago to promote and measure
customer service in our stores. This year's enhancement
provide our teams more and better information to help them
stay focused on service. Our mystery shop program has
been revamped to dig deeper and better understand why we
are not achieving exceptional customer service. Through
our 800-CALL-LOWES[phonetic] numbers we get instant feedback from
customers. Our call-back report tells us where staffing
is needed. Our goal is to answer every service call in
60 seconds or less. By using complaint index, we can determine
which stores are failing to solve issues at the local store
level.
Stores we measured against established standards, as well
as against other stores. A detailed report will show how
each store stacks against other stores, where the store
can improve and how each store compares to our standards.
All stores receive a quarterly score and detailed action
plans will be developed for each store below the standard.
First quarter results show our efforts of paying dividends.
Average ticket was up and total customer traffic was up
19 percent. The second challenge for our stores in 2002,
is controlled inventory stream. By controlling strength,
we improved our in-stock position, helped gross margin and
helped drive performance of our stores. We added increased
focus on technology, to control shrinkage in the stores.
We have worked closely with vendors to develop new ways
to track the product they supply and ensure merchandise
is not walking out of the doors of our stores. Electronic
article surveillance tags have been incorporated into many
products as part of the process, not just placed on the outside
of the packaging. This makes it difficult for shoplifters
in our EAS system by removing tags from the products. We
know that some thieves will continue to find ways [inaudible]
even the best electronic systems.
We have challenged our stores to provide the human component
to compliment our electronic system to control strength.
We will also have greeters at our entrance to help control
the thieves that come in empty-handed. We have issued
a tough refund policy for customers without a receipt.
We will not give cash back, only a merchandise credit card,
which can never be cashed out. We have been inputting a better
track record for repeat offenders. In some case, we will
not issue a new card. New job descriptions and new focus
of cashiers are helping.
More scan errors are being detected. I know issues with
scanning will be greatly reduced with the renewed focus
of head cashiers. All are small steps, together, they
can deliver large results. In the first quarter, shrink
was down 24 basis points to last year, an improvement that
drove our gross margin improvement for the fourth quarter.
The third challenge is to reduce employee turnover. In
our efforts, we challenged our store manages to become more
involved in the hiring process. I have told them to spend
at least 15 minutes with every potential new hire and not
just leave the hiring process to the coordinators in the
stores. Store managers are required to participate in
new employee orientation. By doing this, new employees
better understand standards and the opportunity they have
with Lowe's. To help us achieve our goals, we provide
our employees with a total compensation package that includes
competitive pay, employee discount, medical, dental and
life insurance programs, retirement plans and a discounted
stock purchase plan. This package has allowed employees,
even at entry levels, to see the opportunity and think about
their employment not as a job, but as a career. We are
finding in many markets people want to work for Lowe's.
So far this year, we have received 400,000 applications
in our stores, allowing us to become more selective.
We know our efforts are working, turnover of hourly employees
improved by 18 percentage points in the quarter, continuing
a 16-month improvement in turnover rates. Employee retention
measured as percentage of people that begin the year and
are working with us at the end of the year tells an impressive
story, improving seven percentage points in the first quarter.
Retention of part-time employees is up over 7 percentage
points in the quarter. The challenge we get is to help
drive productivity to inventory turnover. Inventory turnover
has remained flat. We have not totally leveraged our distribution
network and sometimes higher inventory are driven by over
zealous managers. Last year we turned inventory 3.3 times.
Our goal is to improve by 30 basis points per year. To
achieve our goal with initiatives directed toward this issue.
First, for the past nine months we worked on a functional
effort to improve internal supply chain. One initiative
we have adopted and currently implementing is moving safety
stock into the network. The network we have in place today,
we can maintain safety stocks of many items out of D.C.
and reduce inventory in our stores. Should a store have
a run on an SKU, we can replenish the store quickly from
D.C., most of the time in 48 hours or less. We are evaluating
every SKU to see if we will have the opportunity to reduce
inventory without sacrificing service levels or sales.
We have done an extensive study on manufacturing case quantities
to determine what we need to decrease or increase the quantities
needed to meet customer demand. The merchant and logistics
teams have [inaudible] and to make sure just in time strategy
meets demands of our customers. Lastly, we challenged
our stores to get involved and manage the assets. We must
find the battles between lean inventories and sales, but
our managers are aware of the benefit scheme for managing
inventory. Our managers must ensure product is pulled
down during the recovery process. Inventory discrepancies
must be handled immediately to ensure automatic [inaudible]
process is supplying the store with the appropriate level
of inventory. If the first quarter, inventory increased
16 basis points.
In the fifth challenge we have given our operations team
is to ensure every member of the management team that is
engaged and involved in helping effectively run our stores.
In 2001, we added five regions and 16 districts to our
operational structure. This new structure was put in place
to assure regional vice president and district managers
can provide the appropriate level of supervision, guidance
and time in the stores they are accountable for. Their
expanding regional structure will drive better corporate
initiatives and provide consistent and safe shopping environment
for customers.
As I mentioned earlier, these initiatives are fundamental
in retail, but to improve performance, we must improve our
execution of these and other initiatives everyday in every
store. By improvements, it will allow us to continue our
aggressive market expansion. The results we delivered
in first quarter are a step in the right direction. Our
customer service, measured by independent sources, continue
to improve. I will continue to push our stores to excel
in this critical area. Inventory strength has helped drive
gross margins for the past several quarters and the internal
controls should continue to drive improvements in shrink
results. The progress we have made in employee turnover
and retention has been significant. Not only does that
lead to reduced training costs, but better trained and more
tenured employees to provide great customer service. Inventory
turnover has turned in the quarter and we expect gains in
the next several quarters.
Finally, the management teams are engaged in successfully
introducing Lowe's to millions of new customers every week.
For the past 12 to 18 months, our business process improvement
team worked to take a deep look at many of our processes;
including representatives from operations, logistics,
merchandising and real estate, the teams look for ways to
improve the basis of activities with the goal of improving
efficiency of the whole company, not just one district.
While our continued expansion was the focus on the Metro
markets provide tremendous opportunity for Lowe's over
the next several years, we have the capability to drive
our existing store base and help identify and develop in
our VPI process. Store directives incorporate some of
what these teams have identified and the impact these directives
had on first quarter results, mark only the beginning of
what we expect to gain through this focus on efficiencies.
With that, I will turn over to Robert Niblock to describe
financial details in more detail. Robert.
Robert Niblock - CFO and EVP
Thanks
and good morning. As Bob indicated, sales were 6.5 billion
for the first quarter, representing a 22 percent
increase over last year's first quarter and ahead of our
guidance of 21 percent. Comp sales were 7.5 percent for
the quarter, which exceeded our four to six percent guidance.
Comp performance was relatively consistent throughout
the quarter. Inflation in lumber and building materials
resulted in a favorable impact on first quarter comps of
eight basis points. As Larry mentioned, we experienced
widespread strength in comps with all, but one region reporting
positive comps for the quarter. With regard to product
categories, the categories that performed above average
in the first quarter include millwork, outdoor power equipment,
appliances, paint, windows and walls, fashion plumbing,
fashion electrical, cabinets, flooring and home organization.
In addition, hardware and lumber performed at approximately
the overall corporate average. Gross margin for the first
quarter was 29.71 percent, improvement of 140 basis points
over last year's first quarter and significantly ahead of
our guidance of 20 to 30 basis points. The improvement
was attributed to a number of factors, including better
rates, product mix improvements and 24-basis point reduction
in inventory shrink that Larry discussed.
SG and A leveraged 17 basis points in the quarter, below
our guidance of 20 to 30 basis points of leverage. The
shortfall is attributable to higher than planned incentive
compensation which deranged 24 basis points and was driven
by earnings which exceeded our plan for the quarter. Store
cost leverage 11 basis points and reflects the opening of
42 new and 4 relocated stores in the quarter.
This compares to 32 new and 5 relocated stores last
year. The decrease in average store opening costs versus
last year, derived by providing opening costs in the financial
statements by the number of stores open in the quarter is
attributable to timing differences since we expense opening
cost as occurred. Excluding timing differences our average
store opening cost has not changed from last year's first
quarter. Depreciation at 2.24 percent of sales total $145
million and leveraged two basis points. At the understand
of the first quarter, we owned 73 percent of our stores,
versus 16 percent at the end of last year's first quarter.
For the quarter we achieved a record EBIT margin of 9.2
percent which represents an improvement over last year's
first quarter. Interest expense increased to 47 million
for the quarter, with leverage 5 basis points. For the
quarter, total expenses were 21.18 percent of sales and
leverage 35 basis points, which exceeded our guidance of
20 to 30 basis points with leverage. As Bob mentioned,
for the for the, pre-tax earnings were 175 basis points
over the prior year. The tax rate for the quarter was
37.4 percent versus 37.3 percent. The increase was driven
by above-planned earnings. We are anticipating an effective
tax REIT of 37.4 percent for the remainder of the year.
Diluted earnings per share of 44 cents increased 51.7
percent, versus last year's 29 cents and exceeded our guidance
of 35 to 36 cents.
Diluted shares outstanding total 798 million for the
quarter. The competition of diluted shares takes into
act the effective convertible debentures, which increased
first quarter weighted average shares by 16.5 million.
In computing first quarter earnings per share, the after
tax to net income for interest on convertible debentures
was [inaudible]. For each of the remaining quarters of
2002, the after-tax is $2.6 million. For the second
quarter, we are projecting diluting shares of 800 million.
For the year, projected diluted shares outstanding of
801 million. For the quarter, we saw increase in average
ticket to $58.08. Customer count increases 19 percent
during the quarter.
Now, highlighting a few items on the balance sheet. First
of all, our cash position improved to 1.5 billion at the
end of the quarter. In addition, inventory increased 11.3
percent, significantly less than 22.6 sales growth. Internal
invested capital measured using beginning debt and equity
and earnings decreased 28 basis points for the quarter and
14.07 to 13.79 percent. The decrease is attributable to
our decision to prefund our 2002 financing needs. For
the entire fiscal year 2002, we expect investment capital
to increase 10 to 20 basis points. For 2003, we expect
return on investment capital to increase 60 basis points,
as we currently anticipate being able to fund our 2003 expansion
program with little to no external financing. Our strong
first quarter performance drove shareholders equity, determined
use of beginning equity and earnings to 19.83 percent, representing
increase of 244 basis points.
Cash flow from operations was $1.2 billion, representing
increase of 88 percent, compared to the first quarter of
last year. The increase was driven by increased earnings
and improved payables leverage. As we have discussed many
times before, our process of relocating our older is some
smaller stores is almost complete. As a result, for the
quarter, our big stores represented 97 percent of total
sales and generate 98 percent of operating profits. These
percentages will continue to grow. We replace smaller
stores with large format stores
I would like to discuss several items detailed in the outlook.
A second quarter sales increase of 21 to 22 percent incorporates
a comp assumption of 4-6 percent, which is expected to generate
diluted earnings of 53 to 54 cents, representing an increase
of 26 to 29 percent. As a result of our strong first quarter
earnings for fiscal 2002, we are now anticipating diluted
earnings per share of $1.66 to $1.69, which represents
an increase over last year of 28 to 30 percent. Gross
margin for the second quarter is expected to increase between
50 to 60 basis points. For the entire fiscal year, we
are also anticipating a gross margin improvement of 50 to
60 basis points. For the year, we are estimating a comp
sales increase of 5 percent. This guidance incorporates
a comp assumption of 4 percent for the second half of the
year as we cycle against tougher comp comparison.
We expect to open 23 stores in the second quarter and are
on track to open 123 in fiscal 2002. Regarding current
sales trends, our business outlook for the second quarter
anticipates 4-6 percent comps. For the first 16 days our
comps are at the upper end of the range. Before I turn
over to the operator for inquiry questions, in addition
to Bob, Larry and myself, Dale Pond, Bill Warden and Perry
are present. We are ready for questions.
Moderator
Thank you. Today's question and
answer session will be conducted electronically. To ask
a question press the * followed by 1 on the touchtone telephone.
That is * 1 on your touchtone telephone. We will take
as many questions as time permits. We will pause for a
moment to assemble the roster.
Moderator
Our first question will come from Bill Julian
of Salomon Smith Barney.
Analyst
Good morning. And, congratulations.
Your guidance for the gross margin for the back half of
the year looks like it is all of 20 basis points of expansion,
given what happened in the first half. Yet, when I look
at your comparison for the last two years, it is not like
they get that much more difficult. Talk about what is
driving the slow down.
Robert Niblock - CFO and EVP
Bill, this is Robert. We have
been consistently saying we expect 20 to 30 basis points
per year, that is what we charge the merchants with.
If you look over the back half of the year, you are looking
at increase in the 20 to 30 basis point range. I think
in the fourth quarter of last year we were up one hundred
basis points. We are cycling in tough numbers in the fourth
quarter and we just want to maintain the flexibility in
our business as we look out over the longer term to manage
the business the way we think is most prudent. Short-term,
we are taking out the guidance once we have seen the performance.
Longer term, I want to take up the guidance until we
think it is necessary or until we think it is prudent, that
is after the second quarter. We think we have a better
outlook on the back half of the year. I guess it is wrapped
up in our stance we have taken for the past several quarters,
which is being cautiously optimistic.
Analyst
Okay. Did you mention
what your level of inventory shrink is today?
Robert Niblock - CFO and EVP
We don't disclose that. 24 basis
points improvement as an explanation through the 140 basis
point increase in margin. The 24 base improvement exceeded our
planned improvement in inventory shrink.
Analyst
Any sense on whether you
are above or below industry average, can you give us that
much on shrink?
Robert Niblock - CFO and EVP
We believe below.
Moderator
Next, we will hear from Bud [inaudible]of Raymond
James.
Analyst
Hi. My congratulations, as well.
I am still perplexed about the guidance on gross margin
for the second quarter, up 50 to 60 basis points. It
looks like - I am not sure why it wouldn't be better
than that or stronger than that.
Robert Niblock - CFO and EVP
We are sitting here at the
beginning of the quarter. Certainly we will not guide
you to more than 50 to 60 basis points in the quarter.
We need to maintain flexibility in the business. If we
decide we want to get aggressive on pushing through, discontinued
or nonproductive inventory, we will maintain flexibility
in the business. We will deliver 50 to 60 basis points.
Depending on how on the weather, that number could be
more. We feel comfortable with 50 to 60 basis points,
but will not guide you above that.
Analyst
Correct me if I am wrong.
Doesn't look like mixed [inaudible] change evident in
the numbers. If I look historically first to second quarter
gross margins, look at them quarter by quarter, year over
year, quarter over quarter, looks like relatively stable
margin performance in the last couple of years.
Robert Niblock - CFO and EVP
It is. In the second quarter of
the past three years we had 34 basis points and 45 basis points
improvement over the last three years, 50 to 60 is in line
with the numbers.
Analyst
I understand that. Then
that looks like where the first quarter came in significantly
better than that.
Robert Niblock - CFO and EVP
There are several things out there.
Inventory shrink and other drivers that we are just -
not knowing how you will sell through seasonal categories
and not knowing how we will be at the end of the spring
season, that inventory to sale through if it doesn't sell
through. We are optimistic and will not guide you above
that.
Analyst
Congratulations. Thank
you.
Moderator
Next David Chick of [inaudible].
Analyst
Hi, good morning. Could
you give us a little bit more update on the CBC initiative
in terms of progress during the quarter, anything you would
release on numbers?
Larry Stone - EVP Store Operations
The
CBC continues to perform. We had positive comps in CBC
for the quarter. We don't have any new, exciting initiatives
we have added. We continue to do the things we outlined
in the past, making sure we have the right people to take
care of our customers and inventory and certainly have the
the right folks on all the various key places in the stores,
whether the paint deck or CBC desk or millwork deck or whatever.
Very pleased with it, still driving positive comps and
still on plan based on how we projected 2002.
Analyst
Thanks.
Moderator
And again, * 1 to ask a question.
Next we will hear from Matt Savler[phonetic] of Goldman Sachs.
Analyst
Thanks a lot and good morning.
I want to get another derivative on the gross margin question.
Give us more detail on how mixed plays into the gross
margin improvement that you saw and whether you would expect
changes to sustain themselves through the second half of
the year? Your guidance on this?
Robert Niblock - CFO and EVP
15 basis points in gross
margin in the quarter. We will anticipate mix continuing
to be a positive driver over the balance.
Analyst
Following up, if mix was
15 base points and shrink was 25 that would suggest over
one hundred basis points was your original mark-up.
Robert Niblock - CFO and EVP
Also, margin REIT is driven
by better acquisition cost. It is also driven by what we
saw as rational pricing environment in the first quarter.
It didn't have to do a lot of discounting or anything
like that. A number of things we won't - we don't know
what the future holds, we won't count of that much of a
REIT improvement over the balance of the year.
Analyst
Were there initiatives
you had on a corporate basis in terms of acquisition costs
and were there any reasons to believe those would not be
sustained in the competitive environment? It is a wildcard.
Look at the areas under your control.
DALE POND, EVP Merchandising: We are continuing
the process of reviews. We are working with vendors in
terms of working with them in lowering the cost of goods.
So, that is certainly continuing the initiative. There
is mix within mix that has been favorable. Certainly a
lot of our reset that we put into play last year are starting
to deliver the kind of results we were hoping for within
the margin, as well. So, those are some of the issues
we have got. Logistics has been a big help in the cost
of business, as well. That is part of the way we have
lowered the cost through vendors.
Analyst
Got you. Thank you so
much for the details.
Moderator
Aaron Rubenson[phonetic] of [inaudible].
Analyst
Thanks, guys. Great job.
Robert, your mentioned return capital [inaudible]. I
am curious what is embedded in that from a capex standpoint
and therefore, square footage?
Robert Niblock - CFO and EVP
I think we have given that
in '03 square footage would be between 17 percent in '03.
As far as capex on a cash capex basis, you are looking
at a couple of hundred million for '02. As I said, I
think previously we had started out, if you look maybe six
months ago, we talked in the neighborhood of needing 500
million of external funding [inaudible]. The max and depending
on how well performance goes, the back half of the year,
there is a good likelihood we may not need any external
financing for next year.
Analyst
Does that represent a change
in psychology internally or natural progression with decelerated
square footage growth rate?
Robert Niblock - CFO and EVP
It is a natural progression
of the growth rate, new stores performing very well, maturity
base of the old stores. One thing that is a key driver
is inventory turns, if you can imagine that generates a
significant amount of cash flow to fund the business.
Analyst
You don't have a ton of
discretionary cash on hand, but you will get there. You
do seem to have earnings cushion built in. Do you have
an area to invest in more so than you are now, what areas
would those be, pricing or people or corporate or what?
Robert Niblock - CFO and EVP
We will address those when
we get there. We are talking about the balance of this
year, we need the cash on the books to fund the expansion
plan. We think we will have four or 500 million carry-over
if we meet our plan for the rest of the year. That funds
the shortfall we otherwise would have next year.
Then, we will continue to invest in our logistics and regional
distribution and infrastructure in the future. You are
looking at real between 2004 and 2005, before you would
really be significantly on a cash flow basis beyond your
expansion plan. Up to 2005, we have 600 million of debt
maturities out there. We could use it. By that point
in time, we may have other things we are investing in.
We still have time to make that decision.
Analyst
Thanks.
Moderator
Thank you. Our final question will
come from Daniel of J.P. Morgan
Analyst
Thank you. Where did
the pick-up in accounts payable leverage back to historical
levels come from? I am wondering how you were able to
team it with such a large gross margin gain with the trade-off
between the two in vendor negotiations?
Robert Niblock - CFO and EVP
That is Robert. There is no real
change in vendor negotiations. At the end of the year,
there were timing issue that is drove us down lower than
where we had historically been. There was no real change
in vendor negotiations and inventory improving drives that
leverage up. Between inventory turn and getting back -
that helped us get back to that historical level. No real
change in negotiation with vendor terms in the fourth quarter.
Analyst
One final question. This
past year you increased the percentage of new store openings
in large Metro markets. Are Metro stores comping at
a higher rate than non-Metro stores that were open at the
same time?
Larry Stone - EVP Store Operations
If
there is no change in the landscape, they comp at a higher
rate. Most of the time in Metro markets, there is a change
in landscape, given a static environment, Metro stores
will comp higher than stores in a small to mid-sized market.
Analyst
Thank you.
Moderator
That will conclude our question and
answer session. We will turn the conference back over
to Mr. Tillman for closing remarks.
Robert Tillman - President and CEO
Thanks to you
for your continued interest in Lowe's. We look forward
to speaking with you again to report our second quarter
results in August. Goodbye and have a great day.
Moderator
That concludes today's teleconference, we thank
you for your participation.