Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Grand Canyon Education's Fourth Quarter 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Grand Canyon Education 2023 年第四季電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Dan Bachus, CFO. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人、財務長 Dan Bachus。請繼續。

Joining me on today's call is our Chairman and CEO, Brian Mueller. Please note that many of our comments today will contain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Various factors could cause our actual results to be materially different from any future results expressed or implied by such statements. These factors are discussed in our SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and current reports on Form 8-K. We undertake no obligation to provide updates with regard to the forward-looking statements made during this call, and we recommend that all investors review these reports thoroughly before taking a financial position in GCE.

我們的董事長兼執行長布萊恩·穆勒 (Brian Mueller) 參加了今天的電話會議。請注意，我們今天的許多評論將包含涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述。各種因素可能導致我們的實際結果與此類聲明明示或暗示的任何未來結果有重大差異。這些因素在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中進行了討論，包括表格 10-K 的年度報告、表格 10-Q 的季度報告以及表格 8-K 的當前報告。我們沒有義務提供有關本次電話會議期間所做前瞻性陳述的最新信息，我們建議所有投資者在對 GCE 進行財務狀況之前仔細閱讀這些報告。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Brian.

然後，我會將電話轉給布萊恩。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining Grand Canyon Education's Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Conference Call. GCE had another strong quarter, exceeding enrollment expectations by producing online new starts that were in the mid-teens over prior year and also continuing to produce greater-than-expected retention numbers, exceeding revenue guidance estimates at midpoint by $3.3 million, producing a $0.05 beat in adjusted diluted earnings per share to consensus while continuing to invest heavily in initiatives for our university partners.

下午好，感謝您參加 Grand Canyon Education 2023 財年第四季電話會議。 GCE 迎來了一個強勁的季度，線上新入學人數比上年增長了15%，超出了入學預期，並且繼續產生了高於預期的保留人數，超出了中點收入指導預期330 萬美元，產生了0.05 美元調整後的稀釋每股收益超出共識，同時繼續大力投資我們的大學合作夥伴的計劃。

Judging by these results and the current organic lead flow, there has never been greater interest in what is happening at Grand Canyon Education and its 25 partner institutions. There is a vast amount of untapped potential in the American labor force today. There are still universities that chase after U.S. News & World Report rankings. Unfortunately, the criteria for attaining those rankings have nothing to do with tapping into the unmet potential. For example, the fact that there are nursing and teacher shortages is a direct result of misplaced university priorities.

從這些結果和當前的自然引導流來看，人們對 Grand Canyon Education 及其 25 家合作機構正在發生的事情產生了前所未有的興趣。今天的美國勞動力還有大量尚未開發的潛力。仍有一些大學追逐《美國新聞與世界報道》的排名。不幸的是，獲得這些排名的標準與挖掘未滿足的潛力無關。例如，護士和教師短缺的事實是大學優先事項錯位的直接結果。

Our success is the result of trying to understand the life situation of students and the nature of what it is they need to learn. The combination of relevant programs and creative delivery models is what is driving the interest in what we are doing. GCU's traditional ground campus is designed around the needs of 18-year-old high school graduates, who are able to spend 3 or 4 years on a college campus, preparing for life and work as adults. Their learning is primarily in physical brick-and-mortar classrooms in other on-campus venues and in internships in organizations throughout the Greater Phoenix area.

我們的成功是努力了解學生的生活狀況以及他們需要學習的本質的結果。相關計劃和創意交付模式的結合激發了人們對我們正在做的事情的興趣。 GCU 的傳統地面校園是圍繞著 18 歲高中畢業生的需求而設計的，他們能夠在大學校園度過 3 到 4 年，為成年後的生活和工作做好準備。他們的學習主要是在其他校內場所的實體教室以及在整個大鳳凰城地區的組織中實習。

Second, GCU's online campus is designed for working adult students who enter academic programs, whose content can be learned totally in an online environment. The third platform is for students, who can't spend 3 or 4 years on a college campus, but what they are learning can't be done totally online. The 80 hybrid locations we are building is for students entering programs where some of the content can be learned online, while a significant part must be learned in a brick-and-mortar laboratory setting. Currently, it is health care program, specifically nursing, that are offered in those settings.

其次，GCU 的線上校園是為進入學術課程的在職成人學生而設計的，其內容可以完全在線上環境中學習。第三個平台是針對學生的，他們不能在大學校園待上三、四年，但他們所學的東西又不能完全在網路上完成。我們正在建造的 80 個混合地點是供學生參加課程的，其中一些內容可以在線上學習，而大部分內容必須在實體實驗室環境中學習。目前，在這些環境中提供的是醫療保健計劃，特別是護理計劃。

The fourth platform is for students, who want to access the rapidly expanding trade professions. These are shorter programs in a physical brick-and-mortar setting that combine real-world work experience with classroom learning. These students after gaining employment can finish their bachelors degree online. We are developing a fifth platform for students, who are 18-year-old high school graduates, who want a 3- or 4-year college experience, but want to do it at a distance.

第四個平台是為那些想要進入快速發展的貿易職業的學生提供的。這些是在實體環境中進行的較短課程，將現實世界的工作經驗與課堂學習結合。這些學生就業後可以在線上完成學士學位。我們正在為學生開發第五個平台，這些學生是 18 歲的高中畢業生，想要獲得 3 年或 4 年的大學經歷，但又想遠距學習。

I spent some time on this 40,000-foot view of what we are doing with our partners, because there are people writing about why they think we are experiencing success in a troubled industry. The reality is higher education needs to move away -- needs to move way past the simple dichotomy of either learning on a campus or doing it online. There are vast shortages in areas like teaching and nursing, because we lack creative models of delivery that take into account the student's life situation and the nature of what it is they need to learn rather than pursuing outdated and irrelevant U.S. News & World Report rankings. But to teach these programs at scale, and in certain cases, at a distance, take significant investment in people, technology and process, investments we have made and will continue to make.

我花了一些時間從 40,000 英尺的高度觀察我們與合作夥伴正在做的事情，因為有人寫了為什麼他們認為我們在一個陷入困境的行業中取得了成功。現實是高等教育需要擺脫——需要超越在校園學習或線上學習的簡單二分法。教學和護理等領域存在嚴重短缺，因為我們缺乏考慮到學生生活狀況和他們需要學習的性質的創意教學模式，而不是追求過時且不相關的《美國新聞與世界報道》排名。但是，要大規模教授這些課程，並且在某些情況下要遠距離教授這些課程，需要在人員、技術和流程方面進行大量投資，這些投資是我們已經進行的並將繼續進行的。

With that, I would like to review the results of the 4 delivery platforms at Grand Canyon Education. First, the online campus at Grand Canyon University. New starts were up in the mid-teens over the fourth quarter of the prior year and total enrollment growth significantly exceeded our expectations as it is up 10% over the prior year.

說到這裡，我想回顧一下大峽谷教育的4個交付平台的結果。首先是大峽谷大學的線上校園。與去年第四季相比，新開工率增加了 10%左右，總入學人數成長顯著超出了我們的預期，比去年同期增加了 10%。

There are many reasons for this, but I want to highlight 4: one, we have stayed hyper focused on opportunities that exist in today's labor market and since the beginning of the pandemic, GCU has rolled out 135 new programs, emphases and certificates across the 10 colleges. These programs are tied directly to labor market opportunities for students and accounted for 6.7% of the new students that started in the fourth quarter. One of the responses of universities to declining enrollments during the pandemic was to reduce the number of programs they offer.

造成這種情況的原因有很多，但我想強調4 個：第一，我們一直高度關注當今勞動力市場中存在的機會，自大流行開始以來，GCU 已在全球範圍內推出了135 個新項目、重點和證書10所學院。這些項目與學生的勞動市場機會直接相關，佔第四季新生的 6.7%。大學對大流行期間入學人數下降的反應之一是減少其提供的課程數量。

Number two, we continue to work with employers directly to address their workforce shortages. This effort is focused on the industries of education, health care, technology, public safety in the military. In the fourth quarter, new starts from this work increased 18.6%.

第二，我們繼續與雇主直接合作，解決他們的勞動力短缺問題。這項工作的重點是教育、醫療保健、科技、軍隊公共安全等產業。第四季度，這項工作的新開工量增加了 18.6%。

Number three, the retention of students in the fourth quarter went up 120 basis points, which we believe continues to improve because of the relevancy of the programs the students are entering and they're direct tie to the student's career aspirations.

第三，第四季度學生的保留率上升了 120 個基點，我們相信這種情況會繼續改善，因為學生正在進入的課程具有相關性，並且與學生的職業抱負直接相關。

Four, GCU has resisted responding to the slower growth during the pandemic by raising tuition significantly, which many institutions have done. Online net tuition increases since 2018 have averaged approximately 1% per year. We anticipate new enrollments to be up year-over-year in 2024 in the mid- to high single digits. This deceleration from new enrollment growth in 2023 is not the result of a decrease in interest in GCU Online as we anticipate new enrollments to be up significantly on an absolute basis. It's primarily due to re-acceleration of online starts that took place in 2023.

第四，GCU 拒絕大幅提高學費來應對疫情期間增長放緩，而許多院校已經這樣做了。自 2018 年以來，線上淨學費平均每年增長約 1%。我們預計 2024 年新入學人數將年增中高個位數。 2023 年新入學人數成長放緩並不是因為人們對 GCU Online 的興趣下降，因為我們預計新入學人數的絕對值將大幅上升。這主要是由於 2023 年線上啟動的重新加速。

Second, the GCU ground campus for traditional students. We currently believe based on early indications that for fall of 2024, that GCU's traditional on-campus enrollment will return to its normal growth trajectory based on discovered GCU visits being up 43% year-to-date. While the number of traditional-aged students desiring to attend online continues to significantly exceed prior years as well.

其次，GCU 面向傳統學生的地面校園。目前，我們認為，根據早期跡象，到 2024 年秋季，GCU 的傳統校內入學人數將恢復到正常成長軌跡，因為今年迄今發現的 GCU 訪問量增加了 43%。而希望在線學習的傳統年齡學生的數量也繼續大大超過前幾年。

Because of GCU's significant advantages, including the very low price point, very low average debt levels, percent of students completing in less than 4 years and the relevancy of GCU academic programs, we anticipate that GCU will benefit from both trends. We will continue to focus on meeting GCU's growth goals for traditional students attending on GCU's campus with GCU's goal still being 50,000 and also focus on traditional-aged students across the country, who want to do their academic work from home. We are concerned about the Department of Education's past the delays. But as is true with every other university, we are working around them the best we can.

由於 GCU 的顯著優勢，包括非常低的價格、非常低的平均債務水平、學生在 4 年內完成學業的百分比以及 GCU 學術課程的相關性，我們預計 GCU 將從這兩種趨勢中受益。我們將繼續專注於實現 GCU 在 GCU 校園就讀的傳統學生的成長目標，GCU 的目標仍然是 50,000 名，並關注全國各地想要在家完成學業的傳統年齡學生。我們對教育部過去的延誤感到擔憂。但與其他所有大學一樣，我們正在盡最大努力圍繞這些問題開展工作。

Third, Grand Canyon Education's hybrid campus had a decline in enrollment year-over-year of 3.3% in the fourth quarter. However, we believe the hybrid campus has turned the corner. New fall enrollments were up in the high single digits year-over-year, and we expect the new enrollment growth rate in both the spring of '24 and summer of '24 to be up over 20% year-over-year.

第三，大峽谷教育混合校區第四季的入學人數較去年同期下降了3.3%。然而，我們相信混合校園已經度過了難關。秋季新生入學人數年增幅高達個位數，我們預計 2024 年春季和夏季的新生入學成長率將年增 20% 以上。

There are 2 main reasons for this: one, almost all of our active ABSN partners have responded to the younger students interested in ABSN programs by admitting Advanced Standing students or are in the process of making that change. Students with partially completed degrees haven't accumulated a great deal of debt and are very interested in nursing careers but didn't have an efficient way to earn the prerequisite science course work. GCU created the science courses and some other gen ed courses, so they could be delivered online in 8 weeks. Students can access these courses from anywhere in the world.

造成這種情況的主要原因有兩個：第一，我們幾乎所有活躍的ABSN合作夥伴都透過錄取高級學分學生來回應對ABSN計畫感興趣的年輕學生，或者正在做出這種改變。部分完成學位的學生沒有累積大量債務，並且對護理職業非常感興趣，但沒有有效的方法來獲得必備的科學課程作業。 GCU 創建了科學課程和其他一些生成課程，因此可以在 8 週內線上交付。學生可以從世界任何地方訪問這些課程。

There are start opportunities almost every week. These courses have been made very affordable, are taught by experienced faculty, class sizes are low, and there is a tremendous amount of academic support, including an artificial intelligence project that went live in October which provides students 24/7 access to tutoring.

幾乎每週都有開始的機會。這些課程價格非常實惠，由經驗豐富的教師授課，班級規模較小，並且有大量的學術支持，包括 10 月份上線的人工智能項目，為學生提供 24/7 的輔導。

Since implementing these courses, we have already enrolled approximately 6,816 students. We have a waterfall report that allows us to know how students are progressing through their pre-requisite courses and when they will be eligible to start at of our ABSN sites. The success rate of students, who successfully entered the ABSN programs is 90%. And the first time pass rate on the NCLEX exam is approximately 90% as well.

自從實施這些課程以來，我們已經招收了大約 6,816 名學生。我們有一份瀑布報告，使我們能夠了解學生的先修課程進度以及何時有資格在我們的 ABSN 站點開始學習。成功進入ABSN計畫的學生成功率為90%。 NCLEX 考試的首次通過率也約為 90%。

We now have an extremely efficient way to get students academically eligible and prepared to enter the program. We saw positive results in the fall semester, and we believe it will get better from there. There has never been greater interest among potential students for entering the health care professions and specifically nursing. Because of the low unemployment rate, the interest has shifted to these younger students, who haven't accumulated a great deal of debt, completing a bachelor's degree in another area and are underemployed.

我們現在有一種極其有效的方法來讓學生獲得學術資格並為進入該計畫做好準備。我們在秋季學期看到了積極的成果，我們相信從那時起情況會變得更好。潛在的學生對進入醫療保健行業，特別是護理行業表現出前所未有的興趣。由於失業率較低，人們的興趣轉移到了這些年輕的學生身上，他們沒有累積大量債務，在另一個領域完成了學士學位，而且就業不足。

Nearly all our partners have responded positively to the change needed to serve the Advanced Standing students. 2 institutional partners have not responded, and we are discontinuing our partnership with them, resulting in 2 sites closing. In addition, we, along with another partner institutions have agreed to close one of their sites due to its small market size. We will be teaching out the students at 2 of these sites and thus, there will continue to be revenue and expense for the next year or so, but the losses will be less as a result of the closings and the lost revenue thereafter is small.

幾乎我們所有的合作夥伴都對服務高級學分學生所需的變革做出了積極回應。 2 個機構合作夥伴尚未回應，我們將終止與他們的合作夥伴關係，導致 2 個站點關閉。此外，由於市場規模較小，我們與另一家合作機構已同意關閉他們的一個網站。我們將在其中兩個站點為學生授課，因此，明年左右將繼續有收入和支出，但由於關閉而造成的損失將會減少，並且此後的收入損失也很小。

Related to the third site, our partner recently notified us that they would like to determinate the agreement due to the enrollments underperforming, and they will begin teaching out the students on their campus beginning with the summer term. This partner had not agreed to make the change to admit students without completed bachelor's degrees, which is why we believe the enrollments at this site continued to underperform both the partner expectations and ours.

與第三個站點相關，我們的合作夥伴最近通知我們，由於招生表現不佳，他們希望確定協議，他們將從夏季學期開始在他們的校園裡為學生授課。該合作夥伴不同意做出改變以招收未完成學士學位的學生，這就是為什麼我們認為網站的入學人數繼續低於合作夥伴和我們的預期。

As a result, revenue will be lower than what had been anticipated, but expense will as well as this site was expected to shift from profitability in prior years to a loss in 2024 due to the decline in enrollments. These closings are not in any way a reflection of our excitement for this platform of our business. Our goal is still to have 80 locations with approximately 25 partners with 40 of the locations being GCU locations.

因此，收入將低於預期，但由於入學人數下降，費用以及該網站預計將從前幾年的盈利轉變為虧損。這些關閉絕不反映我們對這個業務平台的興奮。我們的目標仍然是擁有 80 個地點，大約 25 個合作夥伴，其中 40 個地點是 GCU 地點。

Fourth, the Center for Workforce Development at Grand Canyon University. The 2022-'23 school year, we started 80 students in GCU's electricians pre-apprenticeship program in partnership with companies that are experiencing labor shortages in that area and are excited about hiring GCU's graduates. The program consists of 4 credit courses and runs 1 semester. 74 students could successfully completed the program. This upcoming school year, we will start 230 students in the program and expect the same results. 119 students started in this program in the fall, and we expect approximately 110 in the spring of 2024.

第四，大峽谷大學勞動力發展中心。 2022-23 學年，我們與該地區面臨勞動力短缺的公司合作，為 80 名學生啟動了 GCU 電工學徒前計劃，並對僱用 GCU 畢業生感到興奮。該計畫由 4 個學分課程組成，為期 1 個學期。 74名學生順利完成了課程。在即將到來的學年，我們將讓 230 名學生開始參與該計劃，並期望獲得相同的結果。秋季有 119 名學生開始參加該項目，我們預計 2024 年春季將約有 110 名學生。

GCU also has plans to begin offering this program at one of our locations outside of Arizona in 2024. This past fall, GCU also started 19 students in a manufacturing certificate program. GCU is running a small parts manufacturing business on campus that is doing work for some of the major companies in Arizona. These students are going to school for 20 hours a week and then work in the facility as a paid employee for 20 hours. At the end of the semester, they received a manufacturing certificate and became eligible for employment in Arizona's fast-growing manufacturing industry.

GCU 還計劃於 2024 年開始在亞利桑那州以外的一個地點提供該計畫。去年秋天，GCU 還為 19 名學生開設了製造證書課程。 GCU 在校園內經營一家小型零件製造企業，為亞利桑那州的一些大公司提供服務。這些學生每週上學 20 小時，然後作為受薪僱員在設施中工作 20 小時。學期結束時，他們獲得了製造業證書，並有資格在亞利桑那州快速發展的製造業就業。

GCU's growing engineering college also has students assisting with this project. Once this concept has been successfully proved out, we expect to work with GCU to scale this program and then add others.

GCU 不斷發展的工程學院也有學生協助此計畫。一旦這個概念被成功證明，我們希望與 GCU 合作擴展這個項目，然後添加其他項目。

I started out talking about the relevant programs and creative delivery models that GCE has implemented with its 25 partner institutions. In the 5-plus years since GCE has become a service provider, it has helped its partners accomplish the following: in that time, GCE has helped Grand Canyon University graduate 154,318 students, 42,438 in education, including 19,842 first-time teachers at a time when teacher shortages have created a national crisis. 42,941 in nursing and health care professions including 2,267 pre-licensure nurses at a time when there is a huge shortage of nurses. 30,115 in the college of humanities and social sciences, including thousands in counseling and social work where there are also huge shortages.

我首先談論了 GCE 與其 25 個合作機構實施的相關專案和創意交付模式。 GCE成為服務提供者以來的5年多時間裡，幫助其合作夥伴完成了以下任務：在此期間，GCE已幫助大峽谷大學畢業了154,318名學生，42,438名教育畢業生，其中一次性教師19,842名當教師短缺造成國家危機。護理和醫療保健行業有 42,941 名護士，其中包括 2,267 名預執照護士，而此時護士卻嚴重短缺。人文社會科學學院有30115人，其中諮商和社會工作領域也存在巨大短缺。

The College of Business has become one of the largest business schools in America has produced 26,627 graduates. The College of Science, Engineering and Technology has grown by 246% and provided 4,874 graduates. The Doctoral College, Honors College and College of Theology also continue to grow. In addition, GCE has helped its other partners graduate 11,848 pre-licensure nurses and occupational therapist assistants. The numbers that I have just cited have all happened in the 5-plus years since the GCU, GCE transaction and since GCE has become an education services provider.

商學院已成為美國最大的商學院之一，並培養了 26,627 名畢業生。科學、工程與技術學院成長了246%，提供了4,874名畢業生。博士學院、榮譽學院和神學院也在不斷發展。此外，GCE 還幫助其他合作夥伴培養了 11,848 名預執照護理師和職業治療師助理。我剛才引用的數字都是自GCU、GCE交易以來以及GCE成為教育服務提供者以來的5年多時間裡發生的。

Service revenue was $278.3 million for the fourth quarter of 2023, an increase of $19.6 million or 7.6% as compared to the $258.7 million for the fourth quarter of 2022. The increase year-over-year in service revenue was primarily due to an increase in GCU enrollments of 8% and an increase in revenue per student year-over-year. Operating income for the 3 months ended December 31, 2023, was $97.8 million, an increase of $7.1 million as compared to $90.7 million for the same period in 2022. The operating margin for each of the 3 months ended December 31, 2023, and 2022 was 35.1%.

2023 年第四季的服務收入為 2.783 億美元，比 2022 年第四季的 2.587 億美元成長了 1,960 萬美元，即 7.6%。服務收入年增主要是由於GCU 入學率達8%，學生人均收入年成長。截至2023年12月31日止三個月的營業收入為9,780萬美元，較2022年同期的9,070萬美元增加710萬美元。截至2023年12月31日及2022年12月31日止三個月的營業利益率為35.1%。

Net income increased 13.6% to $80.7 million for the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to $71 million for the same period in 2022. The GAAP diluted income per share for the 3 months ended December 31, 2023, is $2.71. As adjusted, non-GAAP diluted income per share for the 3 months ended December 31, 2023, is $2.77.

2023 年第四季淨利成長 13.6%，達到 8,070 萬美元，而 2022 年同期為 7,100 萬美元。截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日止 3 個月的 GAAP 攤薄每股收益為 2.71 美元。調整後，截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日止 3 個月的非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益為 2.77 美元。

With that, I would like to turn it over to Dan Bachus, our CFO to give a little more color on our 2023 4th quarter, talk about changes in the income statement, balance sheet and other items as well as to discuss the 2024 guidance.

接下來，我想將其交給我們的財務長丹·巴克斯(Dan Bachus)，他會為我們的2023 年第四季度提供更多的信息，討論損益表、資產負債表和其他項目的變化，並討論2024 年的指導。

Thanks, Brian. Included in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC, we have included non-GAAP net income and non-GAAP diluted income per share for the 3 months ended December 31, 2023 and 2022. Non-GAAP amounts exclude the tax-affected amount of the amortization of intangible assets of $2.1 million in the fourth quarters of both 2023 and '22 and the tax-affected amount of the losses on fixed asset disposals of $0.2 million and $0.1 million for the 3 months ended December 31, 2023, and 2022, respectively.

謝謝，布萊恩。我們向 SEC 提交的 8-K 表格中包含截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日和 2022 年 3 個月的非 GAAP 淨利潤和非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益。非 GAAP 金額不包括受稅收影響的金額2023 年和22 年第四季無形資產攤銷210 萬美元，以及截至2023 年12 月31 日和2022 年3 個月固定資產處置損失受稅收影響的金額分別為20 萬美元和10 萬美元， 分別。

We believe that non-GAAP financial information allows investors to develop a more meaningful understanding of the company's performance over time. As adjusted, non-GAAP diluted income per share for the 3 months ended December 31, 2023, and 2022 is $2.77 and $2.36, respectively.

我們相信，非公認會計原則財務資訊可以讓投資者對公司的長期表現有更有意義的了解。調整後，截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日和 2022 年 3 個月的非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益分別為 2.77 美元和 2.36 美元。

Service revenue was higher than our expectations in the fourth quarter of 2023 due to higher-than-expected enrollments at GCU and some of our other university partners. Revenue per student continues to grow on a year-over-year basis primarily due to the service revenue impact of the growth in the GCU traditional campus enrollments between years, which has a higher revenue per student and the higher revenue per student at off-campus classroom and laboratory sites.

由於 GCU 和我們其他一些大學合作夥伴的入學人數高於預期，2023 年第四季的服務收入高於我們的預期。學生人均收入持續同比增長，主要是由於多年來 GCU 傳統校園入學人數增長對服務收入的影響，其中學生人均收入更高，校外學生人均收入也更高教室和實驗室場地。

Service revenue per student for hybrid ABSN students generates a significantly higher revenue per student than we earn on the other students as these agreements generally provide us with a higher revenue share percentage, partners have higher tuition rates and the majority of their students take more credits on average per semester as they are in accelerated programs. The increase in revenue per student was negatively impacted in the fourth quarter of 2023 by year-over-year differences in the timing of the GCU traditional campus fall semester such that $1.2 million shifted from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the third quarter in 2023 as compared to last year.

混合ABSN 學生的每個學生的服務收入比我們從其他學生身上獲得的收入要高得多，因為這些協議通常為我們提供更高的收入分成百分比，合作夥伴的學費更高，而且他們的大多數學生獲得更多學分每學期的平均水平，因為他們在加速課程中。由於 GCU 傳統校園秋季學期時間表的同比差異，2023 年第四季度每位學生的收入成長受到負面影響，導致 120 萬美元從 2023 年第四季轉移到 2023 年第三季度，如下：與去年相比。

Our operating margin was slightly lower than our expectations primarily due to higher-than-expected investments, including higher Discover visitors and increased head count and higher technology costs. As I discussed on prior quarter's earnings calls, we have been aggressively hiring in which headcount had been mostly flat since March of 2020 to meet our partners' expected future growth, which is driving increased compensation costs, primarily in counseling services and support costs. We also plan for and have incurred significant increases year-over-year in travel primarily related to Discover.

我們的營業利潤率略低於預期，主要是由於投資高於預期，包括發現訪客數量增加、員工數量增加以及技術成本上升。正如我在上一季的財報電話會議上討論的那樣，我們一直在積極招聘，自2020 年3 月以來，員工人數基本持平，以滿足合作夥伴預期的未來增長，這導致薪酬成本增加，主要是諮詢服務和支援成本。我們還計劃主要與探索相關的旅行量同比顯著增加。

We also planned and have incurred increased clinical costs at off-campus classroom and laboratory sites due to the nursing shortage. We also continue to spend more in technology services both in headcount and licensing fees as a result of new technology requests by our partners, and we are incurring costs related to new hybrid locations that have opened in the last 6 months or will open in 2024. And the shift of $1.2 million of revenue from the fourth quarter to the third quarter as compared to prior year negatively impacts the fourth quarter margin.

由於護理人員短缺，我們還規劃並增加了校外教室和實驗室地點的臨床費用。由於我們的合作夥伴提出了新技術要求，我們也繼續在技術服務方面投入更多資金，包括人員數量和許可費用，並且我們正在承擔與過去6 個月內開業或將於2024 年開業的新混合地點相關的成本。與去年同期相比，120 萬美元的收入從第四季度轉移到第三季度，對第四季度的利潤率產生了負面影響。

Our effective tax rate for the fourth quarter of 2023 was 19.9%, compared to 22.8% in the fourth quarter of 2022 and our guidance of 20.3%. The decrease in our effective tax rate between periods was primarily driven by other discrete tax items recorded in the respective periods. We repurchased 134,747 shares of our common stock in the fourth quarter of 2023 at a cost of approximately $16.8 million. And another 50,703 shares were repurchased since December 31, 2023. We have $258.6 million remaining available as of today under our share repurchase authorization. The Board and the company intends to continue using a significant portion of its cash flows from operations to repurchase its shares.

我們 2023 年第四季的有效稅率為 19.9%，而 2022 年第四季為 22.8%，我們的指導值為 20.3%。我們的有效稅率在各期間之間的下降主要是由各期間記錄的其他離散稅項所驅動的。我們在 2023 年第四季以約 1,680 萬美元的成本回購了 134,747 股普通股。自 2023 年 12 月 31 日起，我們又回購了 50,703 股股票。截至今天，我們的股票回購授權仍有 2.586 億美元可用。董事會和公司打算繼續使用經營現金流的很大一部分來回購其股票。

Turning to the balance sheet and cash flows. Total unrestricted cash and short-term investments as of December 31, 2023, were $244.5 million. GCE CapEx in the fourth quarter of 2023, including CapEx for new off-campus classroom and laboratory sites was approximately $10.4 million or 3.7% of service revenue. We expect CapEx for 2024 to be between $30 million and $40 million. The slightly higher CapEx expectations is due to higher spend on internal IT projects and due to a couple of the new off-site locations incurring slightly higher-than-expected tenant improvement and equipment costs.

轉向資產負債表和現金流量。截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日，無限制現金及短期投資總額為 2.445 億美元。 2023 年第四季的 GCE 資本支出（包括新的校外教室和實驗室場地的資本支出）約為 1,040 萬美元，佔服務收入的 3.7%。我們預計 2024 年的資本支出將在 3,000 萬美元至 4,000 萬美元之間。資本支出預期略高的原因是內部 IT 項目支出增加，以及幾個新的場外地點的租戶改善和設備成本略高於預期。

Last, I would like to provide color on the guidance we have provided in our 8-K filed today. As a reminder, the guidance that we have provided in the outlook section of our 8-K filed today is GAAP net income and diluted income per share with a component to adjust the GAAP amounts to non-GAAP as adjusted net income and non-GAAP as adjusted diluted income per share. Consistent with the prior year, we have provided ranges for revenue, operating margin and earnings per share for each of the 4 quarters of 2024. We do this because our financial results are seasonal.

最後，我想對我們今天在 8-K 歸檔中提供的指導進行說明。提醒一下，我們在今天提交的 8-K 展望部分中提供的指導是 GAAP 淨利潤和稀釋每股收益，其中包括將 GAAP 金額調整為非 GAAP 調整後淨利潤和非 GAAP 的部分調整後的稀釋每股收益。與上一年一致，我們提供了 2024 年 4 個季度每季的收入、營業利潤率和每股收益範圍。我們這樣做是因為我們的財務表現是季節性的。

The revenue range assumes the following: GCU ground enrollment will grow to 22,900 in the spring, 7,800 in the summer and between 25,800 and 27,100 in the fall. The ground number continues to include GCU hybrid and professional study students. Residential students are projected to grow to 16,000 in the spring and between 17,500 and 18,500 in the fall. Timing differences in the start and end of the traditional campus semester is pushing $2.1 million from Q2 2024 to Q1 2024 in comparison to 2023, $0.2 million from Q3 2024 to Q2 2024 and $2.7 million from Q4 2024 to Q3 2024 in comparison to 2023.

收入範圍假設如下：春季 GCU 地面入學人數將增至 22,900 人，夏季增至 7,800 人，秋季增至 25,800 至 27,100 人。地面人數繼續包括 GCU 混合型和專業學習學生。預計春季寄宿學生人數將增至 16,000 人，秋季將增至 17,500 至 18,500 人。與2023 年相比，傳統校園學期開始和結束的時間差異導致從2024 年第二季到2024 年第一季的收入比2023 年增加了210 萬美元，從2024 年第三季到2024 年第二季度的收入增加了20 萬美元，從2024 年第四季到2024 年第三季與2023 年相比增加了270 萬美元。

We anticipate that new online enrollments will be up year-over-year in the mid- to high single digits in each quarter during 2024 and that total online enrollment will continue to grow in the high single digits over the prior year throughout 2024.

我們預計，2024 年每季的新線上註冊人數將年比以中高個位數成長，並且線上註冊總數將在 2024 年全年繼續以高個位數成長。

As Brian has discussed, the online enrollment results were outstanding in 2023. Not only did new enrollment grow at a much higher rate than we expected and in the second half, these growth rates were coming off a very difficult year-over-year comp, but retention rates significantly improved over the prior year. These factors will impact the total enrollment growth rate in 2024. The new enrollment growth is a deceleration from 2023 in growth rate, but not in the overall new students being added and the total online growth rates are expected to remain over our long-term objectives of mid-single-digit growth throughout the year.

正如布萊恩所討論的，2023 年的線上招生結果非常出色。不僅新入學人數的成長速度遠高於我們的預期，而且在下半年，這些成長率是在非常困難的同比比較中實現的，但保留率比上一年顯著提高。這些因素將影響2024年的總入學成長率。新入學成長率較2023年有所放緩，但整體新生成長並未放緩，預計線上總成長率將維持在我們的長期目標之上全年實現中個位數成長。

There could be some upside to these projections given the strong lead trends, but given the very difficult -- the very significant growth in 2023 and thus the difficult comps, we believe these estimates are appropriate. We also anticipate seeing a decline in the growth rate of re-entries, students returning to school after break due to 2023 retention rates and a significant year-over-year increase in graduates both of which will put pressure on the total enrollment growth rate.

鑑於強勁的領先趨勢，這些預測可能會有一些上行空間，但考慮到非常困難的情況——2023 年的成長非常顯著，因此比較困難，我們認為這些預測是合適的。我們也預計，由於 2023 年的保留率，重新入學、放假後學生返校的成長率將會下降，而且畢業生的年比大幅成長，這都會給總入學成長率帶來壓力。

As Brian discussed earlier, the new student growth rate in the hybrid pillar is predicted to grow on a year-over-year basis greater than 20% in each of the next 2 start periods during 2024 and the total hybrid enrollment will return to growth in the first quarter, which is much sooner than we had previously predicted. The revenue growth rate for the hybrid pillar as a result of the enrollment growth will be partially offset by changes made to the contracts for the university partners that are no longer being reimbursed for faculty cost and the site closings discussed earlier. We estimate that this will lower revenue approximately $6.1 million during 2024.

正如 Brian 之前討論的那樣，混合支柱的新生增長率預計在 2024 年接下來的 2 個開始階段將同比增長超過 20%，並且混合入學總數將在 2024 年恢復增長。第一季度，比我們之前的預測要早得多。混合支柱因入學人數增長而帶來的收入增長率將被大學合作夥伴合約的變化部分抵消，這些變化不再償還教職員工費用以及前面討論的站點關閉。我們估計這將使 2024 年的收入減少約 610 萬美元。

On the expense side, as you'll recall, we made significant investments in the past few years, primarily in headcount and travel expenses to meet the growth goals of our partners. Our headcount growth will slow in 2024, which will allow us to return to margin expansion, but there are still expense categories that we anticipate will see year-over-year increases greater than revenue growth.

在費用方面，您可能還記得，我們​​在過去幾年中進行了大量投資，主要是在員工人數和差旅費用方面，以滿足合作夥伴的成長目標。我們的員工人數成長將在 2024 年放緩，這將使我們能夠恢復利潤擴張，但我們預計仍有一些費用類別的年增率將大於收入成長。

As Brian mentioned earlier, beginning this past fall and continuing in the spring, we have seen a significant increase in the demand for GCU's traditional campus discover events and thus, we anticipate a continued increase year-over-year in travel expenses. This is a significant expense we believe we need to incur to meet GCU's desired traditional campus growth rate. We also anticipate increases in technology and academic services costs as we spend more in technology services both in headcount and license fees as a result of new technology requests by our partners, and we will incur costs for the new hybrid locations that have opened in the last 6 months or will open in 2024-'25.

正如布萊恩之前提到的，從今年秋季開始一直到春季，我們發現對 GCU 傳統校園探索活動的需求顯著增加，因此，我們預計差旅費用將逐年持續增加。我們認為，為了滿足 GCU 期望的傳統校園成長率，我們需要承擔這筆巨額費用。我們也預計技術和學術服務成本會增加，因為由於我們的合作夥伴提出了新技術要求，我們在技術服務方面的支出增加了，無論是在人員數量還是許可費上，我們都會為去年開設的新混合地點 承擔費用。6 個月或 2024-'25 年開放。

We do anticipate that the hybrid pillar will continue to lose money in 2024, given that a number of mature sites remain significantly below pre-COVID student count. The newer sites are generally back to historical margin profiles as they are back to growing at rates more similar to what we experienced pre-COVID. But to get back to profitability, the mature sites need to get back to pre-COVID enrollment levels.

我們確實預計混合支柱將在 2024 年繼續虧損，因為許多成熟站點的學生人數仍遠低於新冠疫情前的學生人數。較新的網站通常會恢復到歷史利潤水平，因為它們的成長速度與我們在新冠疫情之前經歷的情況更為相似。但為了恢復獲利，成熟的網站需要恢復到新冠疫情前的註冊水準。

Those are now admitting Advanced Standing students are generally back to growth. Those that have not generally continue to see enrollment challenges. We are also continuing to observe that our cost to service students in the licensure online programs that GCU is seeing significant growth in is higher than other programs. We anticipate that this will continue to put pressure on long-term margins as these programs continue to grow.

現在那些錄取高級學分的學生普遍已經恢復成長。那些沒有這樣做的人通常會繼續面臨入學挑戰。我們也繼續觀察到，我們為 GCU 線上許可計畫的學生提供服務的成本顯著增長，高於其他項目。我們預計，隨著這些項目的持續成長，這將繼續對長期利潤率構成壓力。

Last, we anticipate an increase in legal fees in 2024 over prior years as we have a couple of lawsuits filed in prior years that are expected to go into the discovery phase and/or into trial during 2024. Litigation fees and regulatory reserves are included as a component of our non-GAAP measure adjusted EBITDA. With all that said, we anticipate returning to long-term margin growth.

最後，我們預計 2024 年的法律費用將比往年增加，因為我們在前幾年提起了幾起訴訟，預計將在 2024 年進入發現階段和/或審判。訴訟費用和監管準備金包括在內我們的非GAAP 措施調整後EBITDA 的組成部分。話雖如此，我們預計將恢復長期利潤成長。

In estimating interest income for 2024, we assume similar cash balances to 2023 and a similar interest rate environment in the first half of 2024. So we projected similar interest income in the first half but are conservatively projecting a decline in interest rates in the second half of 2024 and thus slightly lower interest income. We believe the effective tax rate for the fourth quarters of 2024 will be 23.4%, 24.9%, 24.9% and 22.8%.

在預測 2024 年利息收入時，我們假設現金餘額與 2023 年類似，且 2024 年上半年利率環境類似。因此，我們預期上半年利息收入類似，但保守預測下半年利率將下降2024 年，利息收入略有下降。我們認為2024年第四季的有效稅率將為23.4%、24.9%、24.9%和22.8%。

The effective tax rate will be higher in 2024 than 2023 because of the impact of state income taxes as revenues continue to grow at the offsite locations outside of Arizona, driving our tax rate increase and the first quarter effective tax rate is much higher than in 2023, as in 2023, we received a large onetime Arizona state income tax refi. These estimates do not assume a contribution in lieu of state income taxes, but if one is made, that will increase G&A expense in the third quarter and decrease the effective tax rate in the second half of the year.

由於州所得稅的影響，2024 年的有效稅率將高於 2023 年，因為亞利桑那州以外的異地地點的收入持續增長，推動我們的稅率上升，第一季的有效稅率遠高於 2023 年與2023 年一樣，我們收到了亞利桑那州一次性的大筆所得稅重新調整。這些估計並未假設用捐款代替州所得稅，但如果這樣做，將增加第三季的一般管理費用，並降低下半年的有效稅率。

Our weighted average shares guidance assumes that we purchased most of the remaining amount authorized by our Board over the rest of the year, although given the rise in the stock price, we anticipate purchasing less stock in 2024 than in 2023. The Board continues to authorize the repurchase of shares as it believes the stock remains undervalued based on the metrics that it uses to evaluate, including the ratio of enterprise value to adjusted EBITDA and the free cash flow yield rather than multiples of other education companies as although we can be viewed as being in the same sector, there are few, if any, appropriate comps.

我們的加權平均股票指引假設我們在今年剩餘時間內購買了董事會授權的大部分剩餘金額，儘管考慮到股價上漲，我們預計 2024 年購買的股票將少於 2023 年。董事會繼續授權回購股票，因為它認為根據其用於評估的指標，該股票仍然被低估，包括企業價值與調整後EBITDA 的比率和自由現金流收益率，而不是其他教育公司的倍數，儘管我們可以被視為在同一領域，即使有，也很少有適當的比較。

On an enterprise value to adjusted EBITDA basis, the stock is currently trading at roughly [11.8], which is less than the recent S&P average of [17]. The average free cash flow yield for the S&P 500 is 2.8%, whereas the company's free cash flow yield is approximately 5.7%.

以調整後 EBITDA 為基礎的企業價值計算，該股目前的交易價格約為 [11.8]，低於標準普爾近期的平均值 [17]。標普 500 指數的平均自由現金流收益率為 2.8%，而該公司的自由現金流量收益率約為 5.7%。

I will now turn the call over to the moderator so that we can answer questions.

我現在將把電話轉給主持人，以便我們回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Jeff Silber。

This is Ryan on for Jeff. Just a question on some of the FAFSA delays. Have you seen any impact there in Orbis or GCU and just anything related to call out there?

這是瑞恩替傑夫發言。只是關於 FAFSA 的一些延遲的問題。您是否在 Orbis 或 GCU 中看到任何影響以及與在那裡呼籲相關的任何事情？

We haven't -- where we're going to see it is on the ground campus, and that's where we'll see it more so than any place else. And what we have to do is stay in touch with students, who are interested and give them as much information as we can about our programs, the cost of our programs, invite them to campus through Discover GCU. And we believe that eventually the site will get fixed, and we will be able to get them the FAFSA -- they will be able to get the FAFSA information that they need to make a decision. And so our ability to stay with the students and keep them motivated is what's key here, and that's going to be true for every university.

我們還沒有——我們將在地面校園看到它，而那是我們比其他任何地方都更容易看到它的地方。我們要做的就是與有興趣的學生保持聯繫，並為他們提供盡可能多的有關我們的課程、課程費用的信息，並透過 Discover GCU 邀請他們來到校園。我們相信該網站最終會得到修復，我們將能夠向他們提供 FAFSA——他們將能夠獲得做出決定所需的 FAFSA 資訊。因此，我們與學生在一起並保持他們積極性的能力是這裡的關鍵，對於每所大學來說都是如此。

One of the things that we saw in the fall was that, again, enrollments in 4-year institutions were down. Enrollment -- the only place the enrollments were really up was in community colleges. And that was significant given the reductions in community college enrollments during the pandemic. What this is a reflection of, we believe, is that inflation is real for middle-class Americans. And the whole idea of questioning the return on investment for higher education continues in this country.

我們在秋季看到的一件事是，四年制院校的入學人數再次下降。入學率－唯一入學率真正上升的地方是社區大學。考慮到大流行期間社區大學入學人數的減少，這一點意義重大。我們認為，這反映出美國中產階級確實有通膨。質疑高等教育投資回報的整個想法在這個國家仍在繼續。

And if you're questioning the return you're going to get, you're going to look for less expensive options. And so in the short run, community colleges benefit from that. But we also eventually will benefit that from that, we believe, the reason we're over-investing in visits to the campus this year and are running 43% ahead is that as President of the University, I still believe that we have an incredibly strong value proposition that's still relatively unknown for the majority of Americans. And we are so excited about what we have to offer here.

如果您對將獲得的回報有疑問，您將尋找更便宜的選擇。因此，從短期來看，社區大學將從中受益。但我們最終也會從中受益，我們相信，我們今年在校園參觀方面投入過多並領先 43% 的原因是，作為大學校長，我仍然相信我們擁有令人難以置信的優勢對於大多數美國人來說仍然相對陌生的強大價值主張。我們對在這裡提供的服務感到非常興奮。

And what's happening with our graduates of this campus that we're going to continue to over-invest in that process even with some of the challenges from a FAFSA perspective. And so there are challenges related to that, but we believe that we are better positioned than everybody else to respond to those challenges, and we're looking forward to having a real successful fall semester here.

我們這個校園的畢業生正在發生的事情是，即使從 FAFSA 的角度來看存在一些挑戰，我們仍將繼續在這個過程中過度投資。因此存在與此相關的挑戰，但我們相信我們比其他人更有能力應對這些挑戰，我們期待在這裡度過一個真正成功的秋季學期。

That's great. And sorry, just one more clarifying one. Can you go over the $6.1 million you called out? And when is that expected to be phased out? I'm assuming that's just the 2 partners and the other one closing down.

那太棒了。抱歉，還有一個需要澄清的地方。你能超過你喊出的 610 萬美元嗎？預計什麼時候會被淘汰？我假設這只是兩個合作夥伴和另一個倒閉的情況。

Yes, the $6.1 million is the net impact of, if you remember, we changed the contract on some of the hybrid partners where they now are paying their own faculty costs, we're no longer reimbursing them. So that has the effect of reducing revenue and reducing our expenses and netting to basically 0. So a big portion of that $6.1 million is that. And some of that impact was obviously in last year as well. And then the rest of it is the impact of the closing of the sites. That amount is pretty minimal of the overall $6.1 million, and most of that is in the second half of the year.

是的，如果您還記得的話，610 萬美元是我們更改了一些混合合作夥伴的合約的淨影響，他們現在要支付自己的教員費用，我們不再向他們報銷。因此，這會減少收入、減少開支，淨額基本上為零。因此，這 610 萬美元的很大一部分就是這個。其中一些影響顯然也發生在去年。剩下的就是網站關閉的影響。在 610 萬美元的總金額中，這個金額相當小，而且大部分是在今年下半年。

Our next question comes from Jeff Meuler with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jeff Meuler 和 Baird。

It's [Stephen Pollock] on for Jeff. Just on the GCU Discover strength, obviously, good numbers there. But just maybe some more detail. Are you seeing that you have better reach or better conversion of students, I guess just kind of what are some of the driving forces behind some of those strong numbers?

傑夫的[史蒂芬·波洛克]上場了。就 GCU Discover 的實力而言，顯然，那裡的數字不錯。但也許只是更多細節。您是否發現您有更好的覆蓋率或更好的學生轉換率，我想這些強勁數字背後的驅動力是什麼？

The number of visitors, like we said, is strong. The number of students that eventually apply to the institution is strong. What's lagging behind a little bit is the number of students that are committing by putting a down payment down, because many of them are waiting for FAFSA information. And so there's no question that we are -- again, I'll say this as President of the University, I'm so bullish on what we have here. And I think it's so -- the knowledge of what we have and the value proposition is still very under known in most of the country. We are becoming more well known. I mean currently, 25% of our ground students are from Arizona, 20% or so from California, but we're growing like crazy in the Midwest, in the Northwest and the Southeast.

正如我們所說，參觀者的數量很大。最後申請該機構的學生數量很多。稍微落後的是承諾支付首付款的學生數量，因為他們中的許多人都在等待 FAFSA 資訊。因此，毫無疑問，我們——再次，作為大學校長，我會這麼說，我對我們在這裡所擁有的一切非常樂觀。我認為確實如此——我們所擁有的知識和價值主張在該國大部分地區仍然鮮為人知。我們越來越出名。我的意思是，目前，我們 25% 的地面學生來自亞利桑那州，20% 左右來自加州，但我們在中西部、西北和東南部正在瘋狂成長。

And so our ability to hang with these students and keep them as informed as we possibly can and then execute once they receive the FAFSA information that they're waiting for, and we think we'll be in a better spot to convert those students than others that we're competing against. And so obviously, we've got to prove that out. But again, our goal is 50,000 students on this campus. And we're going to continue to push through that goal, because we're so excited about what's going on in Arizona and in the greater Southwest from the standpoint of these students getting jobs. We've got 25 advisory boards. We've got over 600 companies represented on those advisory boards and a lot of them are participating, because they want access to our graduates.

因此，我們有能力與這些學生保持聯繫，盡可能讓他們了解情況，然後在他們收到他們正在等待的 FAFSA 資訊後立即執行，我們認為我們將比 FAFSA 更好地轉變這些學生。我們正在與之競爭的其他人。顯然，我們必須證明這一點。但我們的目標是校園內有 50,000 名學生。我們將繼續推動這一目標，因為從這些學生找到工作的角度來看，我們對亞利桑那州和大西南部正在發生的事情感到非常興奮。我們有 25 個顧問委員會。我們的顧問委員會中有 600 多家公司代表，其中許多公司都參與其中，因為他們希望接觸到我們的畢業生。

And the difference, our graduates are making in the workforce is really well understood by the hospitals, the school districts, the engineering firms, the technology firms. And so we are overspending to get students to campus. And we did go through the -- what happened last year with more students deciding to do it from home.

醫院、學區、工程公司、科技公司都非常了解我們的畢業生在勞動市場中所帶來的改變。因此，我們在送學生到校園方面花費太多。我們確實經歷了去年發生的事情，更多的學生決定在家做。

But we really believe, and I talk to these people almost on an everyday basis that are actually doing the work, that we're 1 year now removed, further removed from COVID and the likeliness of students to be okay moving from home, parents being okay with them moving from home. We think that being 1 more year removed from it puts us in a different place. And we're excited about this investment and the return it could provide in the fall. So we know there's a little bit of a risk involved there, but we are very bullish on what goes on here and its impact on students and families and the economy.

但我們真的相信，而且我幾乎每天都與這些真正從事這項工作的人交談，我們已經離開了一年，進一步遠離了新冠病毒，學生們很可能可以離開家，父母也可以離開家。他們從家裡搬出去沒問題。我們認為，再多一年的時間，我們就會處於不同的情況。我們對這項投資及其在秋季可能提供的回報感到興奮。所以我們知道那裡存在一點風險，但我們非常看好這裡發生的事情及其對學生、家庭和經濟的影響。

Do you have any -- Brian, I think he was asking, do you have any thoughts on why Discover visits are up so much? Is the university brand growing nationally?

Brian，我想他是在問，你對為什麼「發現」訪問量成長如此之多有什麼想法嗎？大學品牌在全國成長嗎？

Yes, absolutely. Absolutely. The value proposition that we have here is -- people are responding to that given inflation. And if you're doubting the return on investment for going to college, it's becoming really -- it's becoming more well known that you can get involved here, graduate in 3 years, graduate with less debt than the average state university students. Our parent loan amounts are 50% of the parent loan amounts for in-state, our in-state institutions.

是的，一點沒錯。絕對地。我們這裡的價值主張是──人們正在對特定的通貨膨脹做出反應。如果你懷疑上大學的投資回報，那麼事實正在變得越來越廣為人知：你可以在這裡參與，三年內畢業，畢業時債務比普通州立大學學生少。我們的母公司貸款金額是州內機構母公司貸款金額的 50%。

And so if you're at all questioning the value of going into $100,000 or $150,000 worth of debt or go to college, you don't have to do that going here. And so the interest -- that's what's primarily driving the interest and the willingness of people to take the time to come here and visit.

因此，如果您對欠下 100,000 美元或 150,000 美元的債務或上大學有任何疑問，那麼您不必在這裡這樣做。所以興趣——這就是人們花時間來這裡參觀的興趣和意願的主要驅動力。

No, that makes sense. I appreciate the color. And then, Brian, I think you said start on a fifth pillar in terms of traditional age students being a program online, I guess -- did I hear that correctly? And then b, how would that be different than your GCU Online program?

不，這是有道理的。我很欣賞它的顏色。然後，布萊恩，我想你說從傳統年齡學生成為線上計畫的第五個支柱開始，我猜——我聽對了嗎？然後 b，這與您的 GCU 線上課程有何不同？

We -- right now, the students that are 18 years old or 19 years old and want to earn a degree in business or earn a degree in education and they want to do it from home, they really start in the same program that our 35-year-old started, our working adult students. There's not much difference in those things. What we're working on is eventually a fifth platform that would take into consideration the students are younger, they have lesser work experience, they bring less to the classroom in terms of that work experience. And so over time, we might differentiate those 2 groups a little bit more than we do today.

我們——現在，18 歲或 19 歲的學生想要獲得商業學位或教育學位，他們想在家中完成，他們實際上是從與我們 35 歲的學生相同的課程開始的。三歲開始，我們的打工成人學生。這些事情沒有太大差別。我們最終正在開發第五個平台，該平台將考慮到學生更年輕，他們的工作經驗較少，他們在工作經驗方面為課堂帶來的東西也較少。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們可能會比今天更加區分這兩個群體。

Today, we basically put them in the same program that, for example, a 32-year-old would go into if they were to return to college, they want to earn a degree in one of those areas. So there's not much difference today. But the fact that we are able to do it in the way that we do it differentiates us. If you're living in wherever state in the country, and you're thinking, I want to go to college, but I'm okay staying home. I've got a network of friends. I've got a good part-time job, I'm making $20 an hour. I can do this from home, at least for a year or maybe longer. There's not a lot of institutions that give you the ability to do that.

今天，我們基本上把他們放在同一個項目中，例如，一個 32 歲的人如果要重返大學，他們會進入同一項目，他們想在其中一個領域獲得學位。所以今天沒有太大差別。但事實上，我們能夠以自己的方式做到這一點，這讓我們與眾不同。如果你住在這個國家的任何一個州，而且你在想，我想上大學，但我可以待在家裡。我有一個朋友網路。我有一份不錯的兼職工作，每小時賺 20 美元。我可以在家做這件事，至少一年或更長。沒有很多機構可以讓你有能力做到這一點。

And so as we look at traditional age students, we want to grow our ground campus to 50,000 students. But for those students that are that age that want to stay home, we have an opportunity to serve them as well, whereas most institutions don't. So we'll work on both those lines.

因此，當我們考慮傳統年齡的學生時，我們希望將我們的地面校園擴大到 50,000 名學生。但對於那些想留在家裡的那個年齡層的學生，我們也有機會為他們提供服務，而大多數機構卻沒有。因此，我們將在這兩條線上開展工作。

Our next question comes from Alex Paris with Barrington Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Barrington Research 的 Alex Paris。

I just had a follow-up on the hybrid campus, a lot of information. I was writing as fast as I could. So hybrid, you had a 3.3% decline in total enrollment during the fourth quarter, but fall, new student was up in the high single digits. You're expecting, and I'm just trying to get some clarification. New student enrollment growth in the spring and the summer are expected to be up over 20% and you expect total student enrollment to inflect positive in the first quarter among the hybrid campus.

我剛剛對混合校園進行了跟進，了解了很多資訊。我盡可能快地寫著。因此，第四季的總入學人數下降了 3.3%，但秋季新生人數卻出現了較高的個位數成長。你在期待，而我只是想得到一些澄清。春季和夏季的新生入學人數預計將增加 20% 以上，並且您預計第一季混合校園的學生總入學人數將出現積極變化。

Correct.

正確的。

You got it right, Alex.

你說得對，亞歷克斯。

All right. And then with regard to the site closures. Of your 24 partnerships, only 2 have not responded to the Advanced Standing students proposition, and that led to the closure of these 2 sites and the discontinuing of business with these 2 institutions, right?

好的。然後是關於網站關閉的問題。在您的 24 個合作夥伴中，只有 2 個沒有對高級學分學生的提議做出回應，這導致了這 2 個網站的關閉以及與這 2 個機構的業務中止，對嗎？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

And then you had 1 other that you were closing just because it was below expectations, which then led to you discontinuing business with that. So you've gone from 24 partners to 21 partners within the hybrid pillar.

然後你又關閉了另外一家公司，只是因為它低於預期，這導致你停止了與該公司的業務。因此，混合支柱內的合作夥伴已從 24 個增加到 21 個。

One point of clarification. The last one is a partner that had multiple locations and the decision was made this quarter to close 1 of their multiple locations. So we are only decreasing our partners -- a number of partners by 2.

澄清一點。最後一個是擁有多個地點的合作夥伴，本季決定關閉其中一個地點。所以我們只是減少了我們的合作夥伴——合作夥伴的數量減少了 2 個。

Okay. Good. Now your goal is to have 80 site locations, 40 of which will be GCE locations with 25 partners. So you expect to add based on that target, 3 net new university partners in the hybrid pillar over time?

好的。好的。現在，您的目標是擁有 80 個站點位置，其中 40 個將是 GCE 位置，並擁有 25 個合作夥伴。那麼您希望根據該目標，隨著時間的推移，在混合支柱中淨增加 3 個新的大學夥伴？

That's an approximate number. There are areas of the country and states where it's easier to operate with an existing institution in that state than for GCU to get in that state. And for those states, we will add an additional partner. The difference is this time, as we add additional partners, it will be with the common understanding that the place we really need to focus is on those 19-, 20- and 21-year old students who've earned 30 college credits. They don't have a lot of debt accumulated from a previous degree program. And so they're very open to doing their pre-requisite work online and then pay what they need to pay in order to earn the degree in nursing. And so we won't sign another partner who doesn't come with that understanding, in that agreement that they will admit those students.

這是一個大概的數字。在該國和州的某些地區，與該州的現有機構合作比 GCU 進入該州更容易。對於這些州，我們將增加一個額外的合作夥伴。不同的是，這次，當我們增加更多的合作夥伴時，我們的共識是，我們真正需要關注的是那些已經獲得 30 個大學學分的 19 歲、20 歲和 21 歲的學生。他們沒有因之前的學位課程而累積大量債務。因此，他們非常願意在網上完成必要的工作，然後支付他們需要支付的費用，以獲得護理學位。因此，我們不會與任何不具備這種理解的合作夥伴簽約，在協議中他們將錄取這些學生。

And when you -- back to your 20% increase, that seems dramatic given what we've done in the last year. But remember, we started over 6,000 students in these pre-req courses. And so the students being able to access those courses anywhere in the country and largely take them without the help of financial aid or without taking loans is another huge step in the right direction.

當你回到 20% 的成長時，考慮到我們去年所做的事情，這似乎是戲劇性的。但請記住，我們為 6,000 多名學生開設了這些先修課程。因此，學生能夠在全國任何地方訪問這些課程，基本上不需要經濟援助或貸款的幫助，這是朝著正確方向邁出的又一大步。

If we can get 19, 20 and 21 year old students to understand that they can do the necessary academic work to prepare them without debt and they haven't already accumulated debt from a previous baccalaureate program, the investment in the ABSN program makes unbelievable amount of sense given the number of -- given the money they will make in their career as a nurse. And the shortages and all of that. So we think we've turned the corner from the standpoint of the hybrid programs, and we're very excited about where it's going in the future.

如果我們能讓19、20 和21 歲的學生明白，他們可以做必要的學術工作來為自己做好準備，而無需承擔債務，並且他們還沒有因之前的學士學位課程而積累債務，那麼對ABSN計劃的投資將是令人難以置信的金額考慮到他們在護士職業生涯中能賺到的錢，這是有道理的。還有短缺等等。因此，我們認為從混合計劃的角度來看，我們已經渡過了難關，我們對未來的發展感到非常興奮。

That's great. And then, obviously, there's a lag between new student enrollment and total student enrollment, although we expect total student enrollment to be up in the first quarter. Yet, Dan, I think you said that you expect the hybrid pillar to still lose money in 2024. What level of revenue do we need or what level of enrollment do we need for it to break even? And do you expect it to be breakeven or better in 2025?

那太棒了。然後，很明顯，新生入學率和學生總入學率之間存在滯後，儘管我們預計第一季學生總入學率會上升。然而，丹，我想你說過你預計混合支柱在 2024 年仍會虧損。我們需要什麼水準的收入或我們需要什麼水準的入學率才能達到收支平衡？您預計 2025 年會達到損益兩平或更好嗎？

We're hopeful. I mean, we expect a significant decrease in the loss between '23 and '24, and we're hopeful it will get back to profitability in '25. The key, as I mentioned earlier, is to get these mature locations that were at capacity, pre-COVID and have seen significant declines in their enrollments back to or close to capacity. And so we're obviously very focused on that, working along with our university partners and the things that Brian talked about. We're on our way, but we have work to do to get those mature locations back to capacity.

我們充滿希望。我的意思是，我們預計 23 年至 24 年間的虧損將大幅減少，並希望在 25 年恢復盈利。正如我之前提到的，關鍵是讓這些成熟的地點在新冠肺炎疫情發生之前就已達到容量，並且入學人數大幅下降，恢復到或接近容量。因此，我們顯然非常關注這一點，與我們的大學合作夥伴以及布萊恩談到的事情一起工作。我們正在路上，但我們還有很多工作要做，讓這些成熟的地點恢復產能。

Great. And then last question, unrelated. FAFSA, Brian, I think you said that you're watching it most closely for the ground campus. Why is it less of a concern for the online students or the hybrid students?

偉大的。然後是最後一個問題，無關的。 FAFSA，布萊恩，我想你說過你最密切關注的是地面校園。為什麼線上學生或混合學生不太關心這個問題？

I guess I shouldn't say it's less concern. But it doesn't -- the -- our ability to work with online students given the delays in FAFSA is easier than it is with ground students,, who are first-time students entering college, coming from backgrounds where their parents haven't gone to college, understood college and that kind of thing. There's just a little bit of -- there's a greater amount of uncertainty with the traditional ground students versus online students. And then in addition to that, remember that 50% of our online students are grad students and not eligible for (inaudible) grant anyway.

我想我不應該說這不那麼令人擔憂。但事實並非如此——鑑於 FAFSA 的延誤，我們與線上學生合作的能力比與地面學生合作的能力要容易，這些學生是首次進入大學的學生，來自父母沒有的背景上過大學，了解大學之類的事情。與線上學生相比，傳統地面學生存在更多的不確定性。除此之外，請記住，我們 50% 的線上學生是研究生，無論如何都沒有資格獲得（聽不清楚）助學金。

Got you. That's helpful. And then does it also -- is it also easier with online students because of the frequent starts? So if you miss a start, you don't have to wait an entire semester to enroll that student and risk losing that student in the interim?

明白你了。這很有幫助。那麼，由於頻繁的開始，線上學生是否也更容易？因此，如果您錯過了開學時間，您不必等待整個學期來招收該學生，並冒著在此期間失去該學生的風險？

That's part of it, too. Yes, that is part of it.

這也是其中的一部分。是的，這是其中的一部分。

We've reached the end of our fourth quarter conference call. We appreciate your time and interest in Grand Canyon Education. If you still have questions, please contact myself, Dan Bachus. Thank you.

我們的第四季電話會議已經結束。感謝您花時間關注大峽谷教育。如果您仍有疑問，請聯絡我本人 Dan Bachus。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。