Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q3 2024 Grand Canyon Education earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 2024 年第三季 Grand Canyon Education 收益電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Dan Bachus, CFO. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給今天的第一位發言人，財務長 Dan Bachus。請繼續。

Joining me on today's call is our Chairman and CEO, Brian Mueller.

我們的董事長兼執行長布萊恩·穆勒 (Brian Mueller) 參加了今天的電話會議。

Please note that many of our comments today will contain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Various factors could cause our actual results to be materially different from any expressed or implied by such statements. These factors are discussed in our SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and current reports on Form 8-K.

請注意，我們今天的許多評論將包含涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述。各種因素可能導致我們的實際結果與此類聲明中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。這些因素在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中進行了討論，包括表格 10-K 的年度報告、表格 10-Q 的季度報告以及表格 8-K 的當前報告。

We undertake no obligation to provide updates with regard to the forward-looking statements made during this call, and we recommend that all investors review these reports thoroughly before taking a position in GCE.

我們沒有義務提供有關本次電話會議期間所做前瞻性陳述的最新信息，我們建議所有投資者在持有 GCE 頭寸之前仔細閱讀這些報告。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Brian.

然後，我會將電話轉給布萊恩。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining Grand Canyon Education's third-quarter 2024 conference call.

下午好，感謝您參加 Grand Canyon Education 2024 年第三季電話會議。

GCE had another solid quarter, producing online enrollment growth of 5.8%, and hybrid growth excluding the closed site and those in teach-out, 12.6%. Although we are disappointed that ground enrollment is down slightly year over year, this was not unexpected given the widely reported challenges faced industry-wide.

GCE 又一個強勁的季度，線上入學人數成長了 5.8%，排除封閉站點和教學站點的混合成長為 12.6%。儘管我們對入學人數同比略有下降感到失望，但鑑於廣泛報道的全行業面臨的挑戰，這並不令人意外。

We also continue to produce strong retention rates, while investing heavily in initiatives for our university partners. The investment GCE and its 22 partner institutions are making are based on the belief that there is a vast amount of untapped potential in today's workforce. Many recent high school graduates did not go to college this year because of exorbitant tuition rates, potentially exorbitant debt levels, and difficulty managing the fastest site. Many older students who could benefit from higher education are not attending because of the lack of creative delivery models that do not take into account their life situations.

我們也繼續保持較高的保留率，同時大力投資於我們的大學合作夥伴的計劃。GCE 及其 22 家合作機構正在進行的投資是基於這樣的信念：當今的勞動力市場仍有大量尚未開發的潛力。由於高昂的學費、潛在的過高債務水平以及管理最快站點的困難，許多應屆高中畢業生今年沒有上大學。許多原本可以從高等教育中受益的年齡較大的學生沒有參加，因為缺乏沒有考慮到他們生活狀況的創意教學模式。

Grand Canyon Education will continue to grow at our stated goals over the long run, because we are addressing those challenges in ways that work for students and employers. With that, I would like to review the results of the four delivery platforms at GCE.

從長遠來看，大峽谷教育將繼續按照我們既定的目標發展，因為我們正在以對學生和雇主都有利的方式應對這些挑戰。說到這裡，我想回顧一下 GCE 四個交付平台的成果。

First, the online campus at Grand Canyon University. New starts were up again in the third quarter of 2024, and total enrollment growth met our long objectives, up 5.8% over the prior year. The new start growth rate in the low single digits in the third quarter was slightly lower than we had expected. But as we have discussed previously, the year-over-year comp was extremely tough, given growth in the third quarter of 2023, significantly exceeded our long-term objectives and which was made more difficult given the third quarter is the largest start quarter of the year.

首先是大峽谷大學的線上校園。2024 年第三季新開工率再次上升，總入學人數成長實現了我們的長期目標，比上年增長 5.8%。第三季新開工成長率為低個位數，略低於我們的預期。但正如我們之前討論的那樣，考慮到2023 年第三季度的增長，同比增長極其艱難，大大超出了我們的長期目標，而且考慮到第三季度是2023 年最大的開局季度，這一目標變得更加困難。

We still anticipate starts for the fourth quarter to be up in the mid-single digits even with what continues to be challenging comps. There are many reasons for this, but I want to highlight four.

即使競爭仍然充滿挑戰，我們仍然預計第四季的開局將實現中個位數成長。造成這種情況的原因有很多，但我想強調四個。

One, we continue to stay hyperfocused on opportunities that exist in today's labor market. And since the beginning of the pandemic, GCU has rolled out 148 new programs, emphases and certificates across the 10 colleges. These programs are tied directly to deliver market opportunities for students. One of the responses of universities to the declining enrollments during the pandemic was to reduce the number of programs they offer.

第一，我們持續高度關注當今勞動市場中存在的機會。自疫情爆發以來，GCU 已在 10 所學院推出了 148 個新項目、重點和證書。這些項目與為學生提供市場機會直接相關。大學對大流行期間入學人數下降的反應之一是減少其提供的課程數量。

Two, we continue to work with employers directly to address their workforce shortages. This effort is focused on the industries of education, health care, technology, public safety and the military. In the third quarter, new starts from this work increased 7.5% year over year.

第二，我們繼續與雇主直接合作，解決他們的勞動力短缺問題。這項努力的重點是教育、醫療保健、科技、公共安全和軍事產業。第三季新開工量年增7.5%。

Number three, the retention of students in the third quarter remained strong, which we believe continues because of the relevancy of the programs that students are entering and they're direct tie to the student's career aspirations.

第三，第三季的學生保留率依然強勁，我們相信這種情況會持續下去，因為學生正在進入的課程具有相關性，並且與學生的職業抱負直接相關。

And four, GCU has resisted responding to the slower growth during the pandemic by raising tuition significantly, which many institutions have done. Online net tuition increases since 2018 have averaged approximately 1% per year. The recent Grand Canyon Education and its largest partner, Grand Canyon University, has produced consistent results over the last 16 years as that we stay focused on programs that are a real benefit to students and employers. I want to reiterate that the low single-digit new online start number was due to the above-average growth rates one year ago.

第四，GCU 拒絕大幅提高學費來應對疫情期間增長放緩，而許多院校已經這樣做了。自 2018 年以來，線上淨學費平均每年增長約 1%。最近成立的 Grand Canyon Education 及其最大的合作夥伴 Grand Canyon University 在過去 16 年中取得了一致的成果，因為我們始終專注於對學生和雇主真正有利的計畫。我想重申，新的線上起始數量較低的個位數是由於一年前的成長率高於平均水平。

Again, we will continue to stay focused on our stated growth plan and believe new start growth will return to mid-single digit rates in the fourth quarter and continue at that level into next year.

同樣，我們將繼續專注於我們既定的成長計劃，並相信新開工成長將在第四季度恢復到中個位數，並在明年繼續保持這一水平。

Second, the GCU ground campus for traditional students. New and total traditional campus enrollment was down slightly year over year. Although this is a disappointing result, this is equal to or better than what is occurring nationwide. Department of Education's FAFSA issues in which processing problems and glitches caused major delays in universities receiving the FAFSA data from eligible students.

其次，GCU 面向傳統學生的地面校園。新校區和傳統校區的總入學人數較去年同期略有下降。儘管這是一個令人失望的結果，但這等於或優於全國的情況。教育部的 FAFSA 問題，處理問題和故障導致大學從符合條件的學生那裡接收 FAFSA 資料出現嚴重延誤。

And once they did, millions of forms were found to have errors and needed to be reprocessed, forcing a lot of universities to push back deadlines. As a result of these delays, the number of FAFSA completions among high school seniors is down significantly, including at GCU.

一旦他們這樣做了，數以百萬計的表格被發現有錯誤，需要重新處理，迫使許多大學推遲最後期限。由於這些延誤，高中畢業生（包括 GCU）完成 FAFSA 的人數大幅下降。

According to preliminary data released recently by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, freshmen enrollment dropped more than 5% from last year at colleges and universities, and that at both public and private four-year schools that admit the largest share of students receiving Cal Grants freshmen enrollment dropped by more than 10% from 2023 levels. Our percentage of ground traditional students that receive Cal Grants is comparable to state universities.

根據國家學生資訊交換中心研究中心最近發布的初步數據，學院和大學的新生入學率比去年下降了5% 以上，在接受加州助學金的學生比例最高的公立和私立四年制學校中，新生入學率下降了5% 以上。我們獲得加州助學金的地面傳統學生比例與州立大學相當。

GCU ended its recruiting cycle up year over year as was expected in applications and registrations with students that did not complete the FAFSA, but was down in applications and registrations with students that completed the FAFSA. GCU will be able to reaccelerate growth on the ground campus, because of GCU's significant advantages, including a very low price point, very low average debt levels, percent of students completing in less than four years, and the relevancy of GCU academic programs. We anticipate that GCU will benefit from both trends.

GCU 結束了其招生週期，未完成 FAFSA 的學生的申請和註冊數量逐年上升，但完成 FAFSA 的學生的申請和註冊數量有所下降。由於 GCU 的顯著優勢，包括非常低的價格、非常低的平均債務水平、不到四年的學生完成學業的百分比以及 GCU 學術課程的相關性，GCU 將能夠重新加速地面校園的成長。我們預計 GCU 將從這兩種趨勢中受益。

We will continue to focus on meeting GCU's growth goals for traditional students attending on GCU's campus, with GCU's goal still being 50,000 and focus on traditional aged students across the country, who want to do their academic work from home.

我們將繼續致力於實現 GCU 對在 GCU 校園就讀的傳統學生的成長目標，GCU 的目標仍然是 50,000 名學生，並重點關注全國各地希望在家完成學業的傳統老年學生。

It is our understanding that the Department of Education continues to work on fixes to the FAFSA issues and that the initial results have been positive. We believe that this, along with a number of strategy changes, to address this specific challenge for 2025, '26 that we have made will help us meet the university's new enrollment growth goals of a 15% increase in new enrollments over 2024, '25.

據我們了解，教育部將繼續致力於解決 FAFSA 問題，初步結果是正面的。我們相信，為了應對 2025 年的這一具體挑戰，我們制定的戰略變化以及一些戰略變化，'26 將幫助我們實現大學的新入學增長目標，即比 2024 年，'25 新入學人數增加 15% 。

Third, Grand Canyon Education's hybrid campus had an increase in enrollment year over year up 8.1% in the third quarter. Excluding the closed site and those that are on teach-out, enrollment increased 12.6% year over year. New fall enrollments, excluding the close site and those that are on teach-out, were up approximately 10% year over year with slightly better than our projected mid- to high single-digit growth year-over-year expectation. We expect the new enrollment growth rate in the spring of 2025 to show similar growth on a year-over-year basis.

第三，大峽谷教育混合校區第三季的入學人數較去年同期成長8.1%。排除封閉站點和授課站點，入學人數較去年同期增加 12.6%。秋季新生入學人數（不包括封閉校區和授課的入學人數）年增約 10%，略優於我們預期中高個位數的成長預期。我們預計 2025 年春季的新生入學成長率將呈現類似的年成長。

There are two main reasons for this continued growth. Number one, almost all of our active ABSN partners have responded to the younger students interested in ABSN programs by admitting advanced standing students or are in the process of making the change. Students with partially completed degrees haven't accumulated a great deal of debt and are very interested in nursing careers, but didn't have an efficient way to earn a prerequisite science coursework. GCU created the science courses and some other GenEd courses to they can be delivered online in eight weeks.

這種持續成長有兩個主要原因。第一，我們幾乎所有活躍的 ABSN 合作夥伴都透過招收高年級學生來回應對 ABSN 計畫感興趣的年輕學生，或正在做出改變。部分完成學位的學生沒有累積大量債務，並且對護理職業非常感興趣，但沒有有效的方法來獲得必備的科學課程。GCU 創建了科學課程和其他一些 GenEd 課程，可以在八週內在線授課。

Students can access these courses from anywhere in the world. There are start opportunities almost every week. These courses have been made very affordable, are taught by experienced faculty, class sizes are low, and there's a tremendous amount of academic support, including an artificial intelligence project that went live in October 2023, which provides students 24/7 access to tutoring.

學生可以從世界任何地方訪問這些課程。幾乎每週都有開始的機會。這些課程價格非常實惠，由經驗豐富的教師授課，班級規模較小，並且有大量的學術支持，包括 2023 年 10 月上線的人工智慧項目，該項目為學生提供 24/7 的輔導。

Since implementing these courses, we have already enrolled approximately 11,522 students. We have a waterfall report that allows us to know how students are progressing through their pre-req courses and when they will be eligible to start at one of our ABSN sites. The success rate of students, who successfully entered the ABSN program is in the high-80s. And the first-time pass rate on the NCLEX exam is approximately 90%. We now have an extremely efficient way to get students academically eligible and prepared to enter the program.

自從實施這些課程以來，我們已經招收了大約 11,522 名學生。我們有一份瀑布報告，可以讓我們了解學生的先修課程進度以及他們何時有資格在我們的ABSN 站點之一開始學習。成功進入ABSN計畫的學生的成功率在80多歲。NCLEX 考試的首次通過率約為 90%。我們現在有一種極其有效的方法來讓學生獲得學術資格並為進入該計畫做好準備。

These positive results, we anticipate will continue. There has never been greater interest among potential students for entering the health care professions and specifically, nursing. Because of the low unemployment rate, the interest has shifted to these younger students who haven't accumulated a great deal of debt, completing the Bachelor's degree in another area and are currently underemployed. Nearly all our partners have responded positively to the changes needed to serve the advanced standing students. Our goal is to still have 80 locations with our partners, with 40 of those locations being GCU locations.

我們預計這些積極成果將持續下去。潛在的學生對進入醫療保健行業，特別是護理行業表現出前所未有的興趣。由於失業率較低，人們的興趣已轉移到這些尚未累積大量債務、在另一個領域完成學士學位且目前就業不足的年輕學生身上。幾乎我們所有的合作夥伴都對為高年級學生提供服務所需的變革做出了積極回應。我們的目標是與我們的合作夥伴仍然擁有 80 個地點，其中 40 個地點是 GCU 地點。

Fourth, the Center for Workforce Development at Grand Canyon University. In the 2022-2023 school year, we started 80 students in GCU's electricians pre-apprenticeship program, in partnership with companies that are experiencing labor shortages in that area and are excited about hiring these graduates. The program consists of four credit courses and runs one semester.

第四，大峽谷大學勞動力發展中心。在 2022-2023 學年，我們與該地區勞動力短缺的公司合作，為 80 名學生啟動了 GCU 電工學徒前計劃，並很高興僱用這些畢業生。該計畫由四門學分課程組成，為期一學期。

74 students successfully completed the program in the first year. This past school year, we started 233 students in the program. 123 students completed this program in the fall and 82 in the spring of 2024. GCU has 164 students enrolled in this program in the fall of 2024, including 23 in Austin, Texas.

第一年有 74 名學生成功完成課程。上學年，我們啟動了 233 名學生參加該計劃。 2024 年秋季有 123 名學生完成了該項目，春季有 82 名學生完成了該項目。2024 年秋季，GCU 有 164 名學生報名參加該項目，其中 23 名學生來自德克薩斯州奧斯汀。

A year ago, GCU also started 19 students in the manufacturing certificate program and has 23 students in that program this fall. GCU was running a small parts manufacturing business on campus that is doing work for some of the major companies in Arizona. These students are attending school for 20 hours a week and then work in the facility as a paid employee for 20 hours. At the end of the semester, they receive a manufacturing certificate and become eligible for employment in Arizona's fast-growing manufacturing industry.

一年前，GCU 還為 19 名學生開設了製造證書課程，今年秋季該課程已有 23 名學生。GCU 在校園內經營一家小型零件製造企業，為亞利桑那州的一些大公司提供服務。這些學生每週上學 20 小時，然後作為受薪員工在工廠工作 20 小時。學期結束時，他們將獲得製造證書，並有資格在亞利桑那州快速發展的製造業就業。

GCU's growing engineering college also has students assisting with this project. Once this concept has been successfully proved out, we expect to work with GCU to scale this program and then add others.

GCU 不斷發展的工程學院也有學生協助此計畫。一旦這個概念被成功證明，我們希望與 GCU 合作擴展這個項目，然後添加其他項目。

I started out talking about the relevant programs and creative delivery models that GCE has implemented with its 22 partner institutions. In the six-plus years since GCE has become a service provider, this helped its partners accomplish the following,

我首先談論了 GCE 與其 22 個合作機構實施的相關專案和創意交付模式。自 GCE 成為服務提供者以來的六年多時間裡，這幫助其合作夥伴實現了以下目標：

In that time, GCE has helped Grand Canyon University graduate 175,209 students, 47,419 in education, including 22,492 first-time teachers at a time when teacher shortages have created a national crisis. 47,615 in nursing and health care professions, including 2,594 pre-licensure nurses at a time when there is a huge shortage of nurses. 35,211 in the College of Humanities and Social Sciences, including thousands in counseling and social work, where there are also huge shortages.

在此期間，GCE 幫助大峽谷大學畢業了 175,209 名學生，其中 47,419 名教育專業學生，其中包括 22,492 名初任教師，而當時教師短缺已經造成了全國性危機。 47,615名護理和醫療保健專業人士，其中包括2,594名預執照護士，而當時護士嚴重短缺。人文社會科學學院有35,211人，其中諮商和社會工作人員有數千人，這方面也存在巨大短缺。

College of Business has become one of the largest business schools in America and has produced 30,577 graduates. The College of Science, Engineering, and Technology has grown by 218% and provided 7,127 graduates. The Doctoral College, Honors College, and College of Theology also continue to grow.

商學院已成為美國最大的商學院之一，並培養了 30,577 名畢業生。科學、工程和技術學院成長了 218%，提供了 7,127 名畢業生。博士學院、榮譽學院和神學院也在不斷發展。

In addition, GCE has helped its other partners graduate 17,644 pre-licensure nurses and occupational therapist assistants. The numbers that I've just cited have all happened in the past six-plus years, since the GCU-GCE transaction and since GCE has become an education services provider.

此外，GCE 還幫助其他合作夥伴培養了 17,644 名預執照護理師和職業治療師助理。我剛才引用的數字都是自GCU-GCE交易以來以及自GCE成為教育服務提供者以來的過去六年多的時間裡發生的。

Service revenue was $238.3 million for the third quarter of 2024, an increase of $16.4 million or 7.4% as compared to $221.9 million for the third quarter of 2023. The increase year over year in service revenue was primarily due to an increase in GCU enrollments of 4% and an increase in at our off-campus classroom and laboratory sites of 8.1% and an increase in revenue per student year-over-year.

2024 年第三季的服務收入為 2.383 億美元，較 2023 年第三季的 2.219 億美元增加了 1,640 萬美元，增幅為 7.4%。服務收入年增主要是由於 GCU 入學人數增加了 4%，校外教室和實驗室場地增加了 8.1%，以及每個學生的收入同比增加。

Operating income for the three months that ended September 30, 2024, was $48.2 million, an increase of $6.7 million as compared to $41.5 million for the same period in 2023. The operating margin for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was 20.2% as compared to 18.7% for the three months ended September 30, 2023.

截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日的三個月營業收入為 4,820 萬美元，比 2023 年同期的 4,150 萬美元增加了 670 萬美元。截至2024年9月30日止三個月的營業利益率為20.2%，而截至2023年9月30日止三個月的營業利益率為18.7%。

Net income increased 16% to $41.5 million for the third quarter of 2024 compared to $35.7 million for the same period in 2023. GAAP diluted income per share for the three months that ended September 30, 2024, is $1.42. As adjusted, non-GAAP diluted income per share for the three months ended September 30, 2023, is $1.48.

2024 年第三季淨利成長 16%，達到 4,150 萬美元，而 2023 年同期淨利為 3,570 萬美元。截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日的三個月的 GAAP 攤薄每股收益為 1.42 美元。調整後，截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日止三個月的非 GAAP 攤薄每股收益為 1.48 美元。

With that, I would like to turn it over to Dan Bachus, our CFO, to give a little more color on our 2024 third quarter, talk about changes in the income statement, balance sheet, and other items as well as to discuss the updated 2024 guidance.

說到這裡，我想把它交給我們的財務長Dan Bachus，為我們的2024 年第三季提供更多的信息，討論損益表、資產負債表和其他項目的變化，並討論更新後的財務狀況。

Thanks, Brian. Included in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC, we have included non-GAAP net income and non-GAAP diluted income per share for the three months ended September 30, 2024, and 2023. The non-GAAP amounts exclude the tax-affected amount of the amortization of intangible assets of $2.1 million in the third quarters of both 2024 and 2023, and the tax-affected amount of the losses on fixed asset disposals of $0.4 million for the three months ended September 30, 2023.

謝謝，布萊恩。我們向 SEC 提交的 8-K 表格中包含了截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日和 2023 年的三個月的非 GAAP 淨利潤和非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益。非公認會計原則金額不包括 2024 年和 2023 年第三季無形資產攤銷受稅收影響的金額 210 萬美元，以及三個月固定資產處置損失受稅收影響的金額 40 萬美元截至2023 年9 月30日。

We believe the non-GAAP financial information allows investors to develop a more meaningful understanding of the company's performance over time. As adjusted, non-GAAP diluted income per share for the three months ended September 30, 2024, and 2023 is $1.48 and $1.26, respectively.

我們相信，非公認會計準則財務資訊可以讓投資人對公司的長期表現有更有意義的了解。調整後，截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日和 2023 年 3 月的非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益分別為 1.48 美元和 1.26 美元。

Service revenue was slightly lower than our expectations in the third quarter of 2024, primarily due to lower-than-expected revenue per student and slightly lower-than-expected enrollments. As Brian discussed earlier, online and ground traditional enrollments were slightly less than expected, while hybrid was slightly higher than we expected.

2024 年第三季的服務收入略低於我們的預期，主要是由於每位學生的收入低於預期以及入學人數略低於預期。正如布萊恩之前討論的那樣，線上和地面傳統入學人數略低於預期，而混合入學人數略高於我們的預期。

We continue to see a decline in professional study students, working adult students attending GCUs, ground traditional campus in the evening. These enrollments are included in the ground enrollment number reported in our filings.

我們繼續看到，就讀 GCU 的專業學習學生、在職成人學生以及晚上在傳統校園上課的學生數量不斷減少。這些入學人數包含在我們的備案文件中報告的地面入學人數中。

Although revenue per student continues to grow on a year-over-year basis, primarily due to the growth in hybrid ABSN students, as these students generate a significantly higher revenue per student than we earn on the other students as these agreements generally provide us with a higher revenue share percentage, the partners have higher tuition rates and the majority of their students take more credits on average per semester as they are in accelerated programs, the growth was slightly less than we expected in the third quarter for two primary reasons.

儘管每位學生的收入持續逐年增長，主要是由於混合 ABSN 學生的增長，因為這些學生的每個學生產生的收入明顯高於我們從其他學生身上獲得的收入，因為這些協議通常為我們提供收入分成比例較高，合作夥伴的學費較高，而且大多數學生在加速課程中平均每學期獲得更多學分，第三季度的增長略低於我們的預期，主要有兩個原因。

First, the net tuition rate for GCU's ground traditional campus was slightly less than we expected as scholarships were higher than expected. And second, ancillary revenues were less than expected. Residential enrollment was slightly less than expected. But in the third quarter, we also saw a decline in student spend, which we believe is the result of inflationary pressures.

首先，GCU 地面傳統校區的淨學費略低於我們的預期，因為獎學金高於預期。其次，輔助收入低於預期。住宿入學人數略低於預期。但在第三季度，我們也看到學生支出下降，我們認為這是通膨壓力的結果。

As was expected, the increase in revenue per student was also due to the timing of the fall semester for the ground traditional campus. The fall semester started two days earlier in 2024 than in 2023, which had the effect of shifting $2.2 million in service revenue from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the third quarter of 2024. In addition, contract modifications for some of our university partners, in which the revenue share percentage was reduced in exchange for us no longer reimbursing the partner for certain faculty costs, had the effect of reducing revenue per student.

正如預期的那樣，每位學生收入的增加也是由於地面傳統校園秋季學期的時間安排所致。2024 年秋季學期比 2023 年提前兩天開始，這導致 2024 年第四季 220 萬美元的服務收入轉移到 2024 年第三季。此外，我們對一些大學合作夥伴的合約進行了修改，其中收入分成百分比減少，以換取我們不再向合作夥伴償還某些教職員工費用，這導致了每個學生的收入減少。

Our operating margin in the third quarter of 2024 was higher than our expectations, primarily due to lower spend than expected. Although we continue to invest to meet our clients' growth goals, head count and certain other spend were less than projected. The third quarter operating margin was also positively impacted on a year-over-year basis due to the timing of the fall semester start and contract modifications.

我們 2024 年第三季的營業利潤率高於我們的預期，主要是由於支出低於預期。儘管我們繼續投資以滿足客戶的成長目標，但員工人數和某些其他支出低於預期。由於秋季學期開學時間和合約修改，第三季營業利潤率同比也受到正面影響。

Our effective tax rate for the third quarter of 2024 was 20.8% compared to 19.3% in the third quarter of 2023 and our guidance of 20.8%. The effective tax rate increased year-over-year due to higher state income taxes, partially offset by higher contribution in lieu of state income taxes year over year. Contributions in lieu of state income taxes of $4.5 million were made in July 2024. These contributions have the effect of increasing G&A expense in the third quarter by this amount and decreasing the effective tax rate in the third and fourth quarters by this amount, roughly three-quarters in the third quarter and a four-quarters in the fourth quarter.

我們 2024 年第三季的有效稅率為 20.8%，而 2023 年第三季為 19.3%，我們的指導值為 20.8%。由於國家所得稅增加，有效稅率較去年同期增加，但部分被替代國家所得稅的繳款增加所抵銷。2024 年 7 月，繳納了 450 萬美元的捐款來代替州所得稅。這些貢獻使第三季的一般管理費用增加了這筆金額，並使第三和第四季的有效稅率降低了這筆金額，大約是第三季的四分之三和第四季的四分之四。

Excluding the impact of the contributions in lieu of state income taxes, our effective tax rate would have been 24.9% in the third quarter of 2024 and 23% in the third quarter of 2023. We repurchased 272,497 shares of our common stock in the third quarter of 2024 at a cost of approximately $39.3 million and another 133,792 shares were repurchased since September 30, 2024. We have $146.4 million remaining available as of today under our share repurchase authorization.

排除取代州所得稅繳款的影響，我們的有效稅率在 2024 年第三季為 24.9%，在 2023 年第三季為 23%。我們在 2024 年第三季以約 3,930 萬美元的成本回購了 272,497 股普通股，自 2024 年 9 月 30 日以來又回購了 133,792 股。截至今天，我們的股票回購授權仍有 1.464 億美元可用。

The Board and the company intend to continue using a significant portion of its cash flows from operations to repurchase shares, and we anticipate daily purchases during the rest of 2024 and early 2025 will be accelerated from what was purchased year-to-date.

董事會和公司打算繼續使用營運現金流的很大一部分來回購股票，我們預計 2024 年剩餘時間和 2025 年初的日常購買量將比年初至今的購買量有所加快。

Turning to the balance sheet and cash flows. Total unrestricted cash and short-term investments as of September 30, 2024, were $263.6 million. GCE CapEx in the third quarter of 2024, including CapEx for new off-campus classroom and laboratory sites, was approximately $9.6 million or 4% of service revenue. We still anticipate CapEx for 2024 to be between $30 million and $40 million.

轉向資產負債表和現金流量。截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日，無限制現金及短期投資總額為 2.636 億美元。普通教育考試2024 年第三季的資本支出（包括新的校外教室和實驗室場地的資本支出）約為 960 萬美元，佔服務收入的 4%。我們仍預期 2024 年的資本支出將在 3,000 萬美元至 4,000 萬美元之間。

Last, I'd like to provide color on the guidance we have provided in our 8-K filed today. As a reminder, the guidance that we have provided in the outlook section of our 8-K filed today is GAAP, net income and diluted income per share with a component to adjust the GAAP amount to non-GAAP as adjusted net income and non-GAAP as adjusted diluted income per share.

最後，我想對我們今天在 8-K 歸檔中提供的指導進行說明。提醒一下，我們在今天提交的 8-K 展望部分中提供的指導是 GAAP、淨利潤和稀釋每股收益，其中包括將 GAAP 金額調整為非 GAAP 的調整後淨利潤和非 GAAP 金額。為調整後的稀釋每股收益。

We have updated full year 2024 guidance to include the third quarter revenue and earnings results. We have narrowed the fourth quarter revenue range using actual fall semester ground traditional campus and hybrid enrollment and current revenue per student trends. We continue to anticipate that new online enrollments will be up year-over-year in the mid-single digit in the fourth quarter of 2024, although the comps remain difficult.

我們更新了 2024 年全年指引，納入第三季營收和獲利結果。我們使用實際秋季學期傳統校園和混合招生以及當前每個學生的收入趨勢縮小了第四季度的收入範圍。我們仍然預計 2024 年第四季新的線上註冊人數將同比增長中個位數，儘管比較仍然很困難。

We have slightly increased the midpoint of our revenue guidance from previous estimates as we estimate that higher hybrid and online revenues will then offset the lower ground campus revenue.

我們比之前的估計略微提高了收入指導的中點，因為我們估計更高的混合和線上收入將抵消較低的地面校園收入。

On the expense side, we have adjusted our assumptions for current spending trend and for the investments that are planned during the rest of the year, primarily in headcount to meet our clients' growth expectations in 2025, resulting in a slight increase in operating income for the quarter.

在費用方面，我們調整了針對當前支出趨勢和今年剩餘時間規劃投資的假設，主要是在人員數量上，以滿足客戶 2025 年的成長預期，從而導致營業收入略有增加該季度。

We anticipate the hybrid pillar will continue to lose money during the remainder of 2024 and given that a number of mature sites remain significantly below pre-COVID student accounts. The newer sites are generally back to historical margin profiles as they are back to growing at rates more similar to what we experienced pre-COVID.

我們預計混合支柱在 2024 年剩餘時間內將繼續虧損，因為許多成熟網站的資金仍遠低於新冠疫情前的學生帳戶。較新的網站通常會恢復到歷史利潤水平，因為它們的成長速度與我們在新冠疫情之前經歷的情況更為相似。

But to get back to profitability, the mature sites need to get back to pre-COVID enrollment levels. Those that are now admitting advanced standards are generally back to growth, those that are not generally continue to see enrollment challenges. In estimating interest income for the fourth quarter of 2024, we assume cash balances will decline as we use more of our excess cash to buy back stock.

但為了恢復獲利，成熟的網站需要恢復到新冠疫情前的註冊水準。那些現在承認高級標準的學生通常會恢復成長，而那些沒有接受高級標準的學生通常會繼續面臨入學挑戰。在估計 2024 年第四季的利息收入時，我們假設現金餘額將會下降，因為我們使用更多的多餘現金回購股票。

We have reduced the effective tax rate for the fourth quarter of 2024 to 21.2%. Our weighted average shares guidance assumes the increased buyback activity. The Board continues to authorize the repurchase of shares as we believe the stock remains undervalued based on the metrics that it uses to evaluate, including the ratio of enterprise value to adjusted EBITDA and the free cash flow yield rather than the multiples of other education companies, as although we can be viewed as being in the same sector, there are few, if any, appropriate comps.

我們已將 2024 年第四季的有效稅率降低至 21.2%。我們的加權平均股票指引假設回購活動增加。董事會繼續授權回購股票，因為我們認為根據其用於評估的指標，該股票仍然被低估，包括企業價值與調整後 EBITDA 的比率和自由現金流收益率，而不是其他教育公司的倍數，雖然我們可以被視為處於同一領域，但合適的比較（如果有的話）很少。

Although we do not give 2025 financial guidance until our next quarter's earnings call, as we have just recently kicked off our 2025 budget process, given the significant changes that have occurred with some of our hybrid contracts during 2024, I thought it would be helpful to provide some color on the impact these changes will have on 2025 revenues and on our preliminary expectations for 2025 revenues. We estimate that the contract modifications and site closing will lower revenue by $8.9 million in comparison to 2024 and -- but that this reduction will have only a minimal impact on operating income.

儘管我們在下一季度的財報電話會議之前不會給出2025 年的財務指導，但由於我們最近剛啟動2025 年預算流程，考慮到2024 年我們的一些混合合約發生了重大變化，我認為這將有助於提供一些關於這些變化將對 2025 年收入產生的影響以及我們對 2025 年收入的初步預期的影響。我們估計，與 2024 年相比，合約修改和工廠關閉將使收入減少 890 萬美元，但這種減少對營業收入的影響很小。

Excluding these items, we currently anticipate hybrid revenues will be up year over year in the high single-digit/low teens and we are hopeful that our hybrid pillar will come close to breaking even. This growth rate is impacted by the fact that we have 10 locations that are at or near full capacity and thus, we will have little to no growth year-over-year in total enrollments at those locations.

不包括這些項目，我們目前預計混合收入將同比增長高個位數/低雙位數，我們希望我們的混合支柱將接近收支平衡。這一增長率受到以下事實的影響：我們有 10 個地點已達到或接近滿負荷，因此，這些地點的總註冊人數同比幾乎沒有增長，甚至沒有增長。

We are hopeful that a lot of these locations will get approval to grow in the future as they currently have waitlist. Excluding the impact of leap year in 2024 that we estimate to be $1.6 million, online enrollments and revenue should continue to grow in the mid-to-high single digits year over year, while ground revenues will be relatively flat year over year in the first eight months of the year and up mid-to-high single digits in the last four months as new enrollment growth will be partially offset by the increasing percentage of graduates.

我們希望這些地點中的許多地點都能獲得批准在未來發展，因為它們目前有候補名單。排除 2024 年閏年的影響（我們估計為 160 萬美元），線上註冊人數和收入應繼續以中高個位數增長，而地面收入將同比相對持平。數增長，因為新入學人數的增長將被畢業生比例的增加部分抵消。

I will now turn the call over to the moderator so that we can answer questions.

我現在將把電話轉給主持人，以便我們回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Ryan Griffin, BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）Ryan Griffin，BMO 資本市場。

Thank you so much. It's actually Jeff Silber with BMO. Had a few questions. In your prepared remarks, you talked about the lower student spend. I think it was at the ground that is specifically because of higher inflation. Can we get a little bit more color on that? Is that something new? I mean, inflation has been around for a few years. I'm just curious why it's impacting you now?

太感謝了。實際上是 BMO 的 Jeff Silber。有幾個問題。在您準備好的發言中，您談到了學生支出的減少。我認為這是由於通貨膨脹率上升而造成的。我們可以在上面多一點色彩嗎？這是新事物嗎？我的意思是，通貨膨脹已經存在好幾年了。我只是好奇為什麼現在它會影響你？

Inflation is probably -- it was a little bit of a delay there because higher education is such a big picture item, and there was such a strong mandate to go to college, if you're going to be successful in the world. I think it took people a while to catch up to the fact that there were some very hard realities that middle-class families had to face. But we think we're through that. We're very excited about what's going to happen in our ground campus just next year for three reasons.

通貨膨脹可能會有點延遲，因為高等教育是一個大項目，如果你想在世界上取得成功，就必須上大學。我認為人們花了一段時間才意識到中產階級家庭必須面對一些非常艱難的現實。但我們認為我們已經度過了難關。我們對明年地面校區將發生的事情感到非常興奮，原因有三。

One, we've got plans in place to deal with the FAFSA problem. We've got some strategies that we believe are going to be very successful. And there are a lot of schools in the state that are very successful -- are very excited about what we're able to provide for students. Even if there are delays from the FAFSA's perspective. So we're prepared for that now. And our [percent] those students are going to go up.

第一，我們已經制定了解決 FAFSA 問題的計劃。我們有一些我們相信會非常成功的策略。該州有許多非常成功的學校——對我們能夠為學生提供的服務感到非常興奮。即使從 FAFSA 的角度來看存在延遲。所以我們現在已經做好準備了。我們這些學生的[百分比]將會上升。

Secondly, the middle class students, who -- we lost some of those because parents got just very nervous about sending them away from campus and incurring debt. We're watching if some of that is subsiding. All of our -- probably 90% of our programs now students can graduate in three years?

其次，中產階級學生——我們失去了其中一些學生，因為父母對將他們送出校園並承擔債務感到非常緊張。我們正在觀察其中的一些是否正在消退。現在我們所有的課程——大概 90% 的課程學生都可以在三年內畢業？

And so the word about the ability to come here, graduate in three years, graduate with a minimum amount of debt, is starting to circulate in a way that we think is going to increase the number of out-of-state students that are willing to come because of the low debt levels that students are accumulating here.

因此，關於能夠來到這裡，在三年內畢業，以最低債務額畢業的說法開始以一種我們認為會增加願意的州外學生數量的方式流傳開來。 。

And so we think that -- the third thing that we're watching is that a lot of the offers that were being made to students, especially by some of our in-state universities, the last couple of years, there offers are no longer out there. Both University of Arizona and Arizona State University, our Arizona State just announced a $350 surcharge on every one of this students in the middle of the semester because of a $25 million shortfall. University of Arizona has significant financial issues.

因此，我們認為，我們正在關注的第三件事是，向學生提供的許多錄取通知書，尤其是我們的一些州內大學，在過去幾年中，不再有錄取通知了。亞利桑那大學和亞利桑那州立大學，我們的亞利桑那州立大學剛剛宣佈在學期中期對每位學生收取 350 美元的附加費，因為缺口達 2500 萬美元。亞利桑那大學存在嚴重的財務問題。

In an effort to keep their growth goals going. In the past years, they've maybe offers to students that just haven't worked out from a financial perspective for the university. We didn't do that. We stayed very true to what our scholarship program was -- and I think where our percent of in-state students now is going to go up as a result of that.

努力保持他們的成長目標。在過去的幾年裡，他們可能向學生提供的錄取通知書從財務角度來看對大學來說並不奏效。我們沒有那樣做。我們非常忠於我們的獎學金計劃——我認為我們州內學生的比例將因此而上升。

So some of the shortfall this year from a revenue standpoint is just the extra spend students didn't during welcome weeks, students didn't spend as much money in our bookstore. And so the ancillary revenues were down, just like they're down almost everywhere in this country. And so those things did impact us, but we think we're through that to a large extent.

因此，從收入的角度來看，今年的一些短缺只是學生在歡迎週期間沒有花的額外支出，學生在我們的書店沒有花那麼多錢。因此，輔助收入下降了，就像這個國家幾乎所有地方的收入都下降了一樣。這些事情確實對我們產生了影響，但我們認為我們在很大程度上已經度過了難關。

And I think the results of the election are going to give a lot of middle-class families a lot more confidence at that the financial situation that a lot of middle-class families are in is going to get better, and they're going to be doing their kids a disservice by not supporting them and going to college. And so we're ready to have a big year on our ground campus this year and rebounded in a very significant way.

我認為選舉結果會讓許多中產階級家庭更有信心，相信許多中產階級家庭的財務狀況會變得更好，他們會不支持孩子上大學，對他們的孩子造成了傷害。因此，我們已經準備好今年在我們的地面校園度過重要的一年，並以非常顯著的方式反彈。

The only thing I'd add to that, Jeff, and Brian did a great job of explaining it, is we benefit -- if you go back and listen to our calls, for the last few years, we benefited from the fact that GCU's ancillary revenues grew at a faster pace than overall revenues.

傑夫和布萊恩做了很好的解釋，我唯一要補充的是，我們受益——如果你回去聽聽我們的電話，在過去的幾年裡，我們受益於 GCU 的事實輔助收入的增長速度快於總收入的成長速度。

And just surprisingly, this year, for the reasons like Brian just explained, ancillary revenues actually grew at a slightly low pace than other revenues. And so it was just kind of a weird anomaly that we believe, as Brian said, had to do with inflationary pressures that families are having.

令人驚訝的是，今年，由於布萊恩剛剛解釋的原因，輔助收入的成長速度實際上略低於其他收入。因此，正如布萊恩所說，這只是一種奇怪的異常情況，我們認為這與家庭面臨的通膨壓力有關。

Okay. Got it. I appreciate that. Brian, you mentioned the elections, so that's a good segue to my next question. Obviously, it should benefit or hopefully will benefit the parents as you had mentioned. But I'm just curious from you as a company, what do you think the potential change is money under a Trump administration?

好的。知道了。我很欣賞這一點。布萊恩，你提到了選舉，所以這是我下一個問題的一個很好的延續。顯然，正如您所提到的，它應該使父母受益或有望使父母受益。但我只是對你們公司感到好奇，你們認為川普政府領導下的金錢可能會發生什麼變化？

Well, I think it has to do with what the future is as much as what the past has been. And what I mean by that is there are a lot of rules being discussed. For future implementation in higher education, they are not going to be helpful to students, and they are not going to be helpful to the economy. What I said early on in my remarks is that there's a vast amount of untapped potential in today's workforce. We had six graduations, online graduations a couple of weeks ago.

嗯，我認為這既與過去有關，也與未來有關。我的意思是有很多規則正在討論。對於未來在高等教育中的實施，它們不會對學生有幫助，對經濟也不有幫助。我在發言中早些時候說過，當今的勞動力還有大量尚未開發的潛力。幾週前，我們舉行了六場線上畢業典禮。

We had a lady that is 60 years old and attended our ABSN site, it's nursing and now it's going to make a 15-year run as a nurse in one of our hospitals. We had a lady who gave a graduation speech that's 42 years old from Newark, New Jersey that is becoming a math teacher in the Newark public school districts and this is going to have a 20-year run in the Newark public school districts.

我們有一位 60 歲的女士，曾在我們的 ABSN 網站上工作，從事護理工作，現在她將在我們的一家醫院擔任護士 15 年。我們有一位來自新澤西州紐瓦克的 42 歲女士做了畢業演講，她將成為紐瓦克公立學區的數學老師，這種活動將在紐瓦克公立學區持續 20 年。

Some of the restrictions that are being discussed, like the gainful employment restriction on teachers, which is so counterproductive to what we are doing here and what is necessary to produce more teachers that we think -- and people have reached out to us. And I believe that we're going to have a voice in what's going to happen in this next administration, in terms of what the future of higher education should be.

正在討論的一些限制，例如對教師的有酬就業限制，這對我們在這裡所做的事情以及培養更多我們認為必要的教師產生了反作用——人們已經向我們伸出了援手。我相信，就高等教育的未來而言，我們將對下一屆政府將要發生的事情擁有發言權。

The creative delivery models that we've developed are allowing people in the workforce to re-career into very important areas that other universities -- because of their lack of creativity, they're not providing people those options. And I think an economic development report just came out about Grand Canyon University.

我們開發的創意交付模式允許勞動力中的人們重新進入非常重要的領域，而其他大學則因為缺乏創造力而沒有為人們提供這些選擇。我認為一份關於大峽谷大學的經濟發展報告剛剛發布。

We paid to have it produced. But what we're worth to the economy versus what many state institutions are pulling out of the economy. This new administration is going to be very interested in what's going on here, why it's working, and why it's the anecdote to many of the challenges that exist in higher education.

我們付錢讓它生產。但我們對經濟的價值與許多國家機構從經濟中撤出的價值相比。這屆新政府將對這裡正在發生的事情、為什麼它起作用以及為什麼它是高等教育中存在的許多挑戰的軼事非常感興趣。

And so we're very bullish about -- versus being looked at by the previous administration that we were it's going to be just the opposite in this administration. And we want to be a very active voice in making sure that the creativity that institutions like us bring to the university landscape is something that's going to be appreciated and encouraged rather than in crazy ways restricted. And so we're very much looking forward to the next four years.

因此，我們非常看好 - 與上屆政府的看法相反，本屆政府的情況將恰恰相反。我們希望成為一個非常積極的聲音，確保像我們這樣的機構為大學景觀帶來的創造力得到讚賞和鼓勵，而不是瘋狂地受到限制。因此，我們非常期待未來四年。

Appreciate the color. Thank you so much.

欣賞顏色。太感謝了。

Steven Pawlak, Robert W. Baird.

史蒂文·帕拉克，羅伯特·W·貝爾德。

Brian, strip softness in new online enrollment. Could you just help understand maybe what's driving that? Is it labor market? Is it just demand certain programs using any detail as to some of the softness there?

布萊恩，消除新線上招生的疲軟。您能幫助理解是什麼推動了這一點嗎？是勞動市場嗎？是否只是要求某些程序使用有關其中某些軟性的任何細節？

No, it's not -- we're trying to grow at -- for our new online enrollments, we're trying to grow 5% to 6% per year. We're trying to grow total enrollments at 7% per year. We want to grow with really high-quality students. We want to produce great graduation rates. We want to produce -- we're up to now 24 advisory boards with over 800 companies on those advisory boards because people want access to our graduates not only in Arizona, but throughout the country.

不，這不是——我們正在努力成長——對於我們新的線上註冊人數，我們正在努力每年增長 5% 到 6%。我們正努力以每年 7% 的速度成長總入學人數。我們希望與真正高素質的學生一起成長。我們希望能取得很高的畢業率。我們想要產出——目前我們已經成立了 24 個顧問委員會，這些顧問委員會中有超過 800 家公司，因為人們不僅希望在亞利桑那州，而且在全國範圍內接觸到我們的畢業生。

And we just want to make sure that the people that we're bringing in are going to graduate and be able to produce in the economy. And so in this quarter, we staffed and spent and got the same amount, but we so overly produced a year ago that it doesn't appear as if we had a good quarter. The raw numbers are very good. It's just the year-over-year comps don't look quite as good, but we're not going to be thrown off by that. We're on target for the fourth quarter to again grow in the mid-single digits from a new enrollment growth.

我們只是想確保我們引進的人能夠畢業並能夠在經濟中進行生產。因此，在本季度，我們配備了人員、支出並獲得了相同的金額，但我們一年前的生產過多，以至於看起來我們的季度表現不佳。原始數據非常好。只是逐年比較看起來不太好，但我們不會因此而失望。我們的目標是第四季的新入學人數成長再次實現中個位數成長。

And we were putting together a plan. We're working very hard on a plan for next year and believe it will grow at that level throughout next year. In addition to that, we're extremely excited about the fact that we've turned the corner on these hybrid programs. And the revenue per student in those program is so high and our retention rates are so strong. Our completion rates are so strong. As that thing kicks in, we're very bullish about where we're going in the next four years.

我們正在製定一個計劃。我們正在非常努力地制定明年的計劃，並相信明年的計劃將保持在這個水平。除此之外，我們對這些混合計劃的轉變感到非常興奮。這些項目中每位學生的收入非常高，我們的保留率也非常高。我們的完成率非常高。隨著這件事的發生，我們對未來四年的發展非常樂觀。

Okay. And then Dan, just to clarify, the 225 framework. The hybrid breakeven, is that for the full year? Or is that a comment on sort of a crossover at some point during the year?

好的。Dan，我想澄清一下 225 框架。混合損益平衡是全年的嗎？或者這是對今年某個時候的某種交叉的評論？

Well, again, we haven't done the budget, but the goal is to get us as close to breakeven for the full year as we can get it. But yes, I think we'll probably start out in the spring with some type of small loss, and that will improve as the year goes on.

好吧，再說一次，我們還沒有製定預算，但我們的目標是讓我們盡可能接近全年收支平衡。但是，是的，我認為我們可能會在春季開始出現某種類型的小損失，隨著時間的推移，這種情況將會有所改善。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

We have reached the end of our third quarter conference call. We appreciate your time and interest in Grand Canyon Education. If you still have questions, please contact myself, Dan Bachus. Thank you very much.

我們的第三季電話會議已經結束。感謝您花時間關注大峽谷教育。如果您仍有疑問，請聯絡我本人 Dan Bachus。非常感謝。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的會議。這確實結束了該程式。您現在可以斷開連線。