Lineage, Inc. (LINE) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to Lineage fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call (Operator Instructions)

    大家好。感謝您參加本次電話會議,歡迎來到 Lineage 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。(操作說明)

  • I will now hand the call over to Ki Bin Kim, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我將把電話交給投資者關係主管金基彬(Ki Bin Kim)。請繼續。

  • Ki Bin Kim - Head of Investor Relations

    Ki Bin Kim - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you. Welcome to Lineage's discussion of its fourth quarter 2025 financial results. Joining me today are Greg Lehmkuhl, Lineage's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Robb LeMasters, Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings presentation, which includes supplemental financial information, can be found on our Investor Relations website at ir.onelineage.com. Following management's prepared remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions.

    謝謝。歡迎收聽 Lineage 對 2025 年第四季財務表現的討論。今天與我一同出席的有 Lineage 的總裁兼執行長 Greg Lehmkuhl 和財務長 Robb LeMasters。我們的獲利報告(包括補充財務資訊)可在投資者關係網站ir.onelineage.com上找到。管理層發言結束後,我們將樂意回答您的問題。

  • Before we start, I would like to remind everyone that our comments today would include forward-looking statements under federal securities law. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our filings with the SEC. These risks could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Forward-looking statements in the earnings release that we issued today, along with the comments on this call, are made only as of today and will not be updated as actual events unfold.

    在開始之前,我想提醒大家,我們今天的發言將包含聯邦證券法規定的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受到許多風險和不確定性的影響,詳情請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。這些風險可能導致我們的實際結果與我們在評論中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。我們今天發布的獲利報告中的前瞻性陳述,以及本次電話會議中的評論,僅代表截至今日的觀點,不會隨著實際情況的發展而更新。

  • In addition, reference will be made to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information regarding our use of these measures and a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures can be found in the press release and supplemental package that was issued this morning. Unless otherwise noted, reported figures are rounded and comparisons of the fourth quarter of 2025 are to the fourth quarter of 2024.

    此外,也將提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關我們使用這些措施的資訊以及非 GAAP 措施與 GAAP 措施的調整表,請參閱今天早上發布的新聞稿和補充資料包。除非另有說明,報告的數字均已四捨五入,2025 年第四季的比較是與 2024 年第四季的比較。

  • Now I would like to turn the call over to Greg.

    現在我想把電話交給格雷格。

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Ki Bin, and good morning, everyone. Let me start by first thanking our valued customers and all our incredible team members at Lineage, who did an outstanding job driving efficiencies and executing on significant new business wins in the quarter and throughout 2025. I'm truly grateful to be working alongside such an outstanding group of men and women each and every day. I'll walk through our agenda for this morning.

    謝謝 Ki Bin,大家早安。首先,我要感謝我們尊貴的客戶以及 Lineage 所有傑出的團隊成員,他們在本季度和 2025 年全年都出色地完成了工作,提高了效率,並贏得了重要的新業務。我非常感激每天都能與這樣一群傑出的男士和女士一起工作。我將簡要介紹我們今天上午的議程。

  • First, I'll recap our fourth quarter performance, which came in line or slightly ahead of our expectations on all key metrics. Then we'll discuss our 2026 outlook, followed by our latest view of cold storage supply and demand. Following my remarks, I'll turn it over to Robb LeMasters, our new CFO, who started back in November and has already made meaningful contributions to the business. Robb will walk through the details of our segment performance, expense management initiatives, capital structure and our outlook for 2026.

    首先,我將回顧我們第四季的業績,所有關鍵指標都達到或略高於我們的預期。接下來我們將討論我們對 2026 年的展望,以及我們對冷庫供需的最新看法。我發言完畢,接下來將把發言權交給我們的新任財務長羅布‧勒馬斯特斯,他於去年 11 月上任,已經為公司做出了重要貢獻。Robb 將詳細介紹我們的業務部門績效、費用管理措施、資本結構以及我們對 2026 年的展望。

  • I'll then return to share some closing comments before we open up the line to your questions. Turning to quarterly performance on slide 4. During the fourth quarter, total revenue was flat year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA decreased 2% to $327 million. Total AFFO of $214 million and AFFO per share of $0.83 were flat year-over-year, but both ahead of our expectations. AFFO this quarter was propelled by better management of maintenance capital expenditures and more advanced cash tax planning relative to our initial expectations.

    接下來,我將作一些總結發言,之後我們將開放提問環節。接下來請看第 4 張投影片,了解季度業績。第四季度,總營收與去年同期持平,調整後 EBITDA 下降 2% 至 3.27 億美元。調整後營運資金總額為 2.14 億美元,每股調整後營運資金為 0.83 美元,與去年同期持平,但均超出我們的預期。本季 AFFO 的成長得益於維護性資本支出管理的改善以及相對於我們最初預期更為先進的現金稅收規劃。

  • I continue to push the team to optimize every aspect of our business to drive cash flow generation. Robb will expand on these efforts later in his remarks. Full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA declined 2.3% year-over-year to $1.3 billion and full year AFFO per share increased 2.4% year-over-year. Looking at the underlying business drivers, we saw further occupancy stabilization in the fourth quarter. Same-store physical occupancy improved sequentially by 400 basis points to 79.3%, further signaling that our business is returning to a more normalized seasonality just as we anticipated when providing second half guidance last year.

    我持續督促團隊優化業務的各個層面,以推動現金流的產生。羅布將在稍後的演講中詳細闡述這些努力。2025 年全年調整後 EBITDA 年減 2.3% 至 13 億美元,全年每股調整後營運資金年增 2.4%。從根本的業務驅動因素來看,我們看到第四季入住率進一步趨於穩定。同店實體入住率環比提高 400 個基點至 79.3%,進一步表明我們的業務正在恢復到更正常的季節性,正如我們在去年提供下半年業績指引時所預期的那樣。

  • Year-over-year physical occupancy was down only 50 basis points and improved cadence compared to the first half. That being said, we're entering 2026 at a slightly lower occupancy level compared to last year. Encouragingly, our economic occupancy continues to track nicely with our physical occupancy. and we expect to maintain a similar spread between the two metrics to what we observed throughout 2025. We look to partner with our customers to manage the seasonal ebb and flow of their inventory levels, and we are comfortable that our physical versus economic occupancy spread is both appropriate and sustainable.

    與上半年相比,實際入住率僅下降了 50 個基點,且入住率的提升速度有所加快。也就是說,與去年相比,我們進入 2026 年時的入住率略有下降。令人鼓舞的是,我們的經濟入住率與實際入住率繼續保持良好的同步性,我們預計這兩個指標之間的差距將在2025年全年保持與我們觀察到的類似的水平。我們期待與客戶合作,共同管理其庫存水準的季節性波動,我們相信,我們的實際佔用率與經濟佔用率之間的差距既適當又可持續。

  • As a reminder, we have largely navigated the volume guarantee adjustments stemming from our customers' multiyear inventory destocking post COVID. During the quarter, we grew rent and storage revenue per pallet year-over-year by more than 1.5% on a same-store basis and by over 3% for the total warehouse segment despite headwinds from the industry's challenging macro environment. Throughput volumes declined 2.8% and warehouse services per throughput pallet was down 70 basis points as a result of lower import/export volumes that we highlighted as a concern in our third quarter call.

    再次提醒大家,我們已經基本應對了因新冠疫情后客戶多年庫存清倉而導致的銷售保證調整。本季度,儘管面臨行業宏觀環境的挑戰,我們仍實現了同店租金和倉儲收入同比增長超過 1.5%,整個倉儲業務的租金和倉儲收入同比增長超過 3%。由於進出口量下降,吞吐量下降了 2.8%,每個吞吐量托盤的倉儲服務下降了 70 個基點,這是我們在第三季電話會議上強調的一個令人擔憂的問題。

  • Our container volumes for the fourth quarter were down 9% year-over-year. This softer volume and lower price mix weighed on profitability, resulting in lower margins for the warehousing segment. Overall, same-store NOI was down 5% year-over-year, but was in line with our guide. We continue to see early signs of stabilization in many areas of our business. And in fact, many geographies are stable or growing, including Europe, Asia Pac, Canada and most US regional markets. While we're not out of the woods yet, we believe we will continue to build on these trends throughout 2026 and drive further productivity to address this temporary new normal.

    第四季我們的貨櫃吞吐量年減了 9%。銷售疲軟和價格組合走低對獲利能力造成了影響,導致倉儲業務的利潤率下降。整體而言,同店淨營業收入較去年同期下降 5%,但符合我們的預期。我們持續看到公司業務的許多領域出現穩定的早期跡象。事實上,包括歐洲、亞太地區、加拿大和美國大部分地區市場在內的許多地區都保持穩定或正在成長。雖然我們還沒有完全擺脫困境,但我們相信,在 2026 年,我們將繼續鞏固這些趨勢,並進一步提高生產力,以應對這種暫時的新常態。

  • We plan to deliver significant incremental new business given our strong performance for customers, strategically located assets and our unmatched breadth of service offerings. Turning to our Global Integrated Solutions segment. In the fourth quarter, GIS saw year-over-year NOI growth of 15%, led by our US transportation and foodservice businesses. This rounds out a really great year for the global GIS team who delivered nearly 10% year-over-year NOI growth in 2025. Great job to Greg Bryan and the entire GIS team.

    鑑於我們為客戶帶來的卓越業績、策略性佈局的資產以及無與倫比的服務範圍,我們計劃實現顯著的成長性新業務。接下來,我們來看看全球整合解決方案板塊。第四季度,GIS 的淨營業收入年增 15%,主要得益於美國交通運輸和餐飲服務業務的成長。全球 GIS 團隊在 2025 年實現了近 10% 的年均淨營業收入成長,為這一年畫上了圓滿的句號。Greg Bryan 和整個 GIS 團隊做得非常出色。

  • Turning to capital investments, which is a compelling driver of upside to our medium-term growth model. In the quarter, we invested $170 million of growth capital primarily in our development projects, and we're pleased with the continued progress on these projects. As a reminder, we have 24 facilities that are under construction or in the process of ramping and stabilizing. These projects represent over $1 billion of previously invested capital and a significant amount of our future asset mix. We expect these assets to deliver over $150 million of incremental EBITDA once stabilized, a considerable addition to the Lineage earnings base.

    轉向資本投資,這是我們中期成長模式強勁的推動力。本季度,我們投入了 1.7 億美元的成長資本,主要用於我們的開發項目,我們對這些項目的持續進展感到滿意。再次提醒大家,我們有 24 個設施正在建設中或正在進行施工和穩定化改造。這些項目代表了超過 10 億美元的先前投資資本,並且是我們未來資產組合的重要組成部分。我們預計這些資產一旦穩定下來,將帶來超過 1.5 億美元的增量 EBITDA,這將為 Lineage 的獲利基礎帶來相當大的成長。

  • Also, we're not just growing to grow. We are constantly looking to manage our portfolio of assets. In December, we sold a noncore asset in Santa Maria, California at a mid-6 cap rate for $60 million. This is consistent with several other recent private cold storage transactions that were executed around a 6 cap, further reinforcing the strength and resilience of private market valuations for our real estate. We're actively looking at numerous options to take advantage of the mispricing between the public and private markets to enhance shareholder value.

    而且,我們發展不只是為了發展。我們一直在尋求管理資產組合的方法。去年 12 月,我們以 6% 的資本化率出售了位於加州聖瑪麗亞的一項非核心資產,售價為 6,000 萬美元。這與最近幾筆以 6 倍上限執行的私人冷庫交易一致,進一步鞏固了我們房地產私人市場估值的實力和韌性。我們正在積極研究多種方案,以利用公開市場和私募市場之間的定價差異來提升股東價值。

  • We think this makes sense, especially as you consider that most recent research implies that we traded over a 35% discount to our NAV, over an 8.5% implied cap rate and in our view, an even larger discount to the replacement cost of our portfolio. We have plenty of attractive opportunities to redeploy this capital into our balance sheet to further enable strategic acquisitions, customer-led developments and capital return strategies. This is a very active work stream, and we look forward to updating you in future quarters.

    我們認為這是合理的,尤其是考慮到最近的研究表明,我們的交易價格較淨資產值折讓超過 35%,隱含資本化率折讓超過 8.5%,而且在我們看來,較我們投資組合的重置成本折讓幅度更大。我們有很多有吸引力的機會,可以將這筆資金重新部署到我們的資產負債表中,以進一步實現策略性收購、以客戶為導向的發展和資本回報策略。這是一個非常活躍的工作流程,我們期待在未來的幾季向您報告最新進展。

  • We believe these efforts will not only highlight the mismatch between private and public valuations, but also position us to continue to consolidate the US market as opportunities present themselves. Turning now to our outlook for 2026. We expect same-store NOI growth of negative 4% to negative 1%, adjusted EBITDA of $1.25 billion to $1.3 billion and AFFO per share of $2.75 to $3 per share. Robb will provide future guidance details in a moment, but I'll share the macro assumptions that inform our guidance.

    我們相信,這些努力不僅會凸顯私人估值和公共估值之間的不匹配,而且還將使我們能夠在機會出現時繼續整合美國市場。現在讓我們展望一下2026年。我們預期同店淨營業收入成長率為-4%至-1%,調整後EBITDA為12.5億美元至13億美元,調整後每股營運資金為2.75美元至3美元。Robb稍後會提供未來業績指引的細節,但我會先分享我們業績指引所依據的宏觀假設。

  • In 2026, we expect 1% to 2% net pricing increases in our warehousing segment. While it's only February, we've already worked through 65% of our warehousing revenue base. We also expect our business to track to normal seasonality in 2026, albeit entering the year at a slightly lower occupancy level than we entered 2025. We anticipate that the industry will continue to digest new supply and remain competitive. Our observations mirror what many food producers and distributors are saying.

    預計到 2026 年,我們的倉儲業務淨價格將上漲 1% 至 2%。雖然現在才二月,但我們已經消耗了倉儲收入基礎的 65%。我們也預計,2026 年我們的業務將恢復正常的季節性規律,儘管年初的入住率水準會比 2025 年略低。我們預計該行業將繼續消化新增供應並保持競爭力。我們的觀察結果與許多食品生產商和分銷商的說法不謀而合。

  • Global food demand remains stable as highlighted by the recently published Circana and Nielsen data. But the consumer continues to exhibit value-seeking behavior, trade down activity and incrementally shifting their spend from restaurants to retail. Given that we ultimately serve the end customer, whether they choose to eat at home or at a restaurant, by national or store brands, demand in our business in the long run remains stable.

    根據最近發布的 Circana 和 Nielsen 數據,全球食品需求仍然保持穩定。但消費者仍表現出追求性價比的行為,消費檔次降低,並逐漸將支出從餐飲轉向零售。鑑於我們最終服務的是終端客戶,無論他們選擇在家用餐還是在餐廳用餐,無論是全國性品牌還是自有品牌,從長遠來看,我們業務的需求將保持穩定。

  • And as I mentioned, we believe that we're past the inventory drawdown after COVID and remain optimistic that the categories we serve will continue to grow. Overall, we're assuming a similar operating environment as 2025 and not building into our guidance any upside from potential catalysts such as tariff resolution, interest rate reductions, a stronger consumer or the benefits to the consumer from pending tax relief. In the meantime, we're not standing by waiting for a stimulus.

    正如我之前提到的,我們相信新冠疫情後的庫存下降期已經過去,並且對我們所服務的品類將繼續增長保持樂觀。總體而言,我們假設營運環境與 2025 年類似,並且沒有將關稅解決方案、利率降低、消費者信心增強或即將實施的稅收減免對消費者的好處等潛在催化劑帶來的任何上行收益納入我們的預期。同時,我們不會坐等刺激措施出台。

  • Lineage remains focused on controlling the controllables and driving efficiencies wherever possible. Robb will discuss this more later, but he has helped accelerate our efforts, and we expect to remove $50 million annualized admin and indirect costs by the end of this year. These savings will not discourage our investments in our sales, our customer support team nor our prudent technology investments to stay the industry leader in automation and warehouse execution. We are using this challenging time in the industry to become a better, leaner company with even more positive operating leverage in the future.

    Lineage 始終專注於控制可控因素,並盡可能提高效率。羅布稍後會對此進行更多討論,但他幫助加快了我們的工作進度,我們預計到今年年底將減少 5000 萬美元的年度管理和間接成本。這些節省下來的資金不會影響我們對銷售、客戶支援團隊以及審慎的技術投資,以保持在自動化和倉儲執行領域的行業領先地位。我們正利用產業面臨的這段充滿挑戰的時期,努力成為一家更好、更精簡的公司,並在未來獲得更大的經營槓桿效應。

  • Turning to slide 5. As a reminder, last quarter, we collaborated with CBRE to gain additional insights into new supply and demand trends within the industry. At this point, our analysis is focused on US markets where we have the most accessible data. To recap the analysis we put out recently, CBRE data shows that from 2021 to 2025, US public refrigerated warehouse supply increased 14.5% on a square foot basis, while consumer demand for these categories stored in our network grew 5%.

    翻到第5張投影片。提醒一下,上個季度,我們與世邦魏理仕 (CBRE) 合作,以更深入地了解業界新的供需趨勢。目前,我們的分析主要集中在美國市場,因為我們擁有最容易取得的數據。回顧我們最近發布的分析,CBRE 數據顯示,從 2021 年到 2025 年,美國公共冷藏倉庫的供應量以平方英尺計算增長了 14.5%,而消費者對我們網路中存儲的這些類別的需求增長了 5%。

  • That implies a 9.5% excess capacity across the US over four years. Even so, Lineage's 2025 average physical occupancy was 75%, only 300 basis points below its 2021 level despite tariffs, reduced US agricultural exports and inventory destocking, a testament to our network scale, hardworking commercial team and the customer desire to align with the industry leader. Looking ahead, new supply in 2026 is expected to slow significantly, which is logical given the current environment just does not support speculative development.

    這意味著未來四年美國產能將過剩 9.5%。即便如此,Lineage 2025 年的平均實體入住率仍達到 75%,僅比 2021 年的水平低 300 個基點,儘管面臨關稅、美國農產品出口減少和庫存去庫存等問題,這證明了我們網絡的規模、勤奮的商業團隊以及客戶希望與行業領導者合作的願望。展望未來,預計 2026 年的新供應量將大幅放緩,考慮到當前環境並不支援投機性開發,這是合乎邏輯的。

  • To further mitigate supply side challenges, we are idling buildings where appropriate with finding alternative real estate uses. We also think competitor weaknesses and asset obsolescence could help ease industry capacity. On the demand side, potential catalysts such as tariff resolution, tax stimulus, moderating food inflation and lower interest rates could serve as meaningful tailwinds to our business.

    為了進一步緩解供應方面的挑戰,我們正在適當地閒置建築物,並尋找其他房地產用途。我們也認為,競爭對手的弱點和資產過時可能有助於緩解產業產能壓力。在需求方面,關稅解決、稅收刺激、食品通膨緩和以及利率下降等潛在催化劑,可能對我們的業務產生重要的推動作用。

  • Moving to Slide 6. Using the latest CBRE data, we take a closer look at when the new supply has come online and its magnitude. As new supply is added to the market, customers naturally reassess their options. They decide whether to stay with Lineage or to switch providers, which in the near term increases competitive pressure. What we've observed is that this customer switching largely occurs in the first 1 to 2 years after new supply comes online. Then markets typically begin to stabilize.

    切換到第6張投影片。我們利用世邦魏理仕的最新數據,仔細研究了新增供應何時上線以及其規模。隨著新的供應進入市場,客戶自然會重新評估他們的選擇。他們需要決定是否繼續使用 Lineage 的服務或更換供應商,這在短期內會加劇競爭壓力。我們觀察到,這種客戶轉換主要發生在新的供應上線後的前 1 到 2 年內。然後市場通常會開始趨於穩定。

  • To break this down, we're focusing on a subset of our US assets that have been in the same-store pool since 2021 and represent over $0.5 billion of our US NOI. The top chart shown in green reflects markets that have seen less than 15% cumulative new supply over the last four years. Many of these markets have high barriers to entry, constrained land, challenged permitting and high building costs. And together, they represent over 60% of our US portfolio. NOI growth in these markets has been relatively insulated from new supply pressure, though they were impacted by inventory destocking coming out of COVID in 2023 and 2024 as well as other macro factors like declines in import-export volumes and tariffs.

    為了更清楚地說明這一點,我們將重點放在自 2021 年以來一直屬於同店資產池的美國資產子集,這些資產占我們美國淨營業收入的 5 億美元以上。頂部綠色圖表顯示的是過去四年累計新增供應量低於 15% 的市場。這些市場大多有進入門檻高、土地資源有限、審批困難和建築成本高等問題。它們加起來占我們美國投資組合的 60% 以上。儘管這些市場在 2023 年和 2024 年受到 COVID 疫情後庫存去庫存的影響,以及進出口量下降和關稅等其他宏觀因素的影響,但其淨營業收入增長相對不受新的供應壓力的影響。

  • Now that customers have rationalized their inventories, we are seeing stabilization in 2026. The next two charts represent markets that have experienced more than 15% cumulative new capacity in the last 4 years. We further split these into early cycle supply markets shown in blue, where most of the new capacity was delivered in 2022 and 2023 and late cycle supply markets shown in gray, where most of the new capacity was delivered in 2024 and 2025. The early cycles chart in blue saw on average same-store NOI declines in 2023 and 2024.

    現在客戶已經合理化了庫存,我們預計 2026 年市場將趨於穩定。接下來的兩張圖表代表了過去 4 年累計新增產能超過 15% 的市場。我們進一步將這些市場分為早期週期供應市場(藍色),其中大部分新增產能於 2022 年和 2023 年交付;以及晚期週期供應市場(灰色),其中大部分新增產能於 2024 年和 2025 年交付。藍色早期週期圖表顯示,2023 年和 2024 年同店淨營業收入平均下降。

  • But thereafter, these markets saw slight organic NOI growth in 2025 and are forecasted to be relatively flat in 2026. To be clear, these markets still carry new capacity overhang, but NOI has begun to stabilize as the inventory destocking is behind us and as the markets absorb the new supply, leading to market rent equilibrium. Importantly, in many cases, customers who originally left for lower prices have since returned to our network because of our service excellence.

    但此後,這些市場在 2025 年出現了輕微的有機 NOI 成長,預計在 2026 年將保持相對穩定。需要明確的是,這些市場仍有新增產能過剩,但隨著庫存去庫存化進程的結束以及市場對新增供應的吸收,淨營業收入已開始趨於穩定,從而達到市場租金均衡。重要的是,在許多情況下,最初因為價格較低而離開的客戶,後來都因為我們卓越的服務而回到了我們的網絡。

  • With limited incremental new supply over the past couple of years and with inventory destocking behind us, we have a more favorable outlook for this group, which accounts for 21% of our sampled NOI. Combined, the low new supply markets and the early cycle supply markets make up 85% of our US NOI and both groups have demonstrated improved NOI stability, something we expect to continue in 2026. Finally, the gray chart at the bottom represents the late cycle supply segment. These are places where we are seeing the most competitive pressure today as the new supply was delivered more recently, and we expect this competitive pressure to continue into 2026.

    由於過去幾年新增供應有限,且庫存去庫存化已經完成,我們對該群體的前景持更加樂觀的態度,該群體占我們抽樣淨營業收入的 21%。低新供應市場和早期週期供應市場合計占我們美國淨營業收入的 85%,這兩個群體都表現出更高的淨營業收入穩定性,我們預計這種情況將在 2026 年繼續維持。最後,底部的灰色圖表代表週期後期的供應部分。由於這些地區的新供應是最近才交付的,因此我們目前看到這些地區競爭壓力最大,我們預計這種競爭壓力將持續到 2026 年。

  • These markets make up only about 15% of our US NOI in this pool. Importantly, across the US overall and especially in these late cycle supply markets, we expect to see a significant decline in new deliveries in 2026. And as this supply is digested, we expect to regain opportunities to grow with our customers. Net-net, this data shows while a small portion of our portfolio is navigating a temporary supply-demand imbalance, 85% of our NOI in the US is on stable footing. Despite macro headwinds, I'm confident that we are well positioned to grow over time as the food industry normalizes, new capacity is absorbed and our commercial, energy, admin and productivity initiatives, including LinOS continue to accelerate.

    這些市場僅占我們美國淨營業收入的約 15%。重要的是,我們預計 2026 年美國整體以及這些處於週期後期的供應市場的新車交付量將大幅下降。隨著這些供應被消化,我們期望能夠重新獲得與客戶共同發展的機會。總而言之,該數據顯示,雖然我們投資組合的一小部分正在應對暫時的供需失衡,但我們在美國的淨營業收入的 85% 處於穩定狀態。儘管面臨宏觀不利因素,但我相信,隨著食品行業的正常化、新增產能的消化以及包括 LinOS 在內的商業、能源、行政和生產力舉措的持續加速,我們已做好充分準備,隨著時間的推移實現增長。

  • Now let me turn it over to Robb LeMasters. Robb, welcome to Lineage.

    現在讓我把麥克風交給羅布‧勒馬斯特斯。羅伯,歡迎來到《血統》。

  • Robb LeMasters - Chief Financial Officer

    Robb LeMasters - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. I joined Lineage a little over 3 months ago, and it has been great meeting our talented team members and many of the investors on this call. These past 3 months have confirmed my view that Lineage is a world-class organization, and I look forward to actively engaging further with you all in the months to come.

    謝謝你,格雷格,大家早安。我加入 Lineage 三個多月了,很高興能見到我們才華橫溢的團隊成員以及本次電話會議上的許多投資者。過去三個月更加印證了我之前的看法,Lineage 是一家世界級的公司,我期待在接下來的幾個月與大家進一步積極互動。

  • Now on slide 7, you can see our Global Warehouse segment. In the fourth quarter, total warehouse NOI declined 2.4% year-over-year to $373 million, while same-store NOI declined 5% year-over-year to $340 million, both in line with our previously provided guidance.

    現在,在第 7 張投影片上,您可以看到我們的全球倉庫部分。第四季度,倉庫總淨營業收入年減 2.4% 至 3.73 億美元,同店淨營業收入較去年同期下降 5% 至 3.4 億美元,均與我們先前提供的指引一致。

  • In our same warehouse segment, as Greg highlighted, we grew our rent, storage and blast revenue per physical pallet by 1.7% year-over-year. We also saw an impressive sequential growth in our physical utilization of 400 basis points to 79.3%, signaling further evidence of a return to the more normal seasonality Greg forecasted last summer. Conversely, throughput volumes were slightly softer, down 2.8% year-over-year with services revenue per throughput pallet down 70 basis points.

    正如 Greg 所強調的那樣,在我們同一個倉庫領域,我們每個實體托盤的租金、倉儲和爆破收入同比增長了 1.7%。我們還看到,我們的實體利用率環比增長了 400 個基點,達到 79.3%,這進一步證明了 Greg 去年夏天預測的更正常的季節性正在回歸。相反,吞吐量略有下降,年減 2.8%,每托盤吞吐量的服務收入下降 70 個基點。

  • For the full year, total warehouse NOI declined 3.3% to $1.48 billion, while same-store NOI growth was minus 5.8%. While our occupancy has been stable, services mix and throughput volume continue to be weighed down by lower import/export volumes related to the shifting tariff announcements during the second half of the year. Keep in mind, volume shifts in certain higher-value commodities can incrementally impact results given the attachment of higher value-added services.

    全年來看,倉儲總淨營業收入下降了 3.3%,至 14.8 億美元,而同店淨營業收入成長為 -5.8%。雖然我們的入住率一直保持穩定,但由於下半年關稅政策的變動導致進出口量下降,服務組合和吞吐量持續受到拖累。請記住,某些高價值商品的數量變化可能會對結果產生漸進式影響,因為高附​​加價值服務會與之掛鉤。

  • Shifting to Slide 8. Global Integrated Solutions segment's EBITDA grew 15% to $61 million in our fourth quarter and was up 9% to $251 million for the full year 2025, continuing this division's great trends all year. Our fourth quarter NOI margin for GIS improved by 470 basis points to 19.5%. We are continuing to see strong momentum in our US transportation and foodservice businesses due to the value these integrated solutions provide to our customers. As a reminder, we see solid longer-term upside in the combined offerings of our GIS businesses and our Warehouse segment. Our ability to bring to market a global network of assets to offer customers an end-to-end solution is unique and rewarded by our customers.

    切換到第 8 張投影片。全球整合解決方案部門的 EBITDA 在第四季度成長了 15%,達到 6,100 萬美元,預計 2025 年全年將成長 9%,達到 2.51 億美元,延續了該部門全年的良好發展趨勢。我們第四季 GIS 的 NOI 利潤率提高了 470 個基點,達到 19.5%。由於這些綜合解決方案為我們的客戶帶來了價值,我們在美國的運輸和餐飲服務業務持續保持強勁成長勢頭。再次提醒大家,我們認為公司地理資訊系統業務和倉儲業務的合併產品具有穩健的長期成長潛力。我們能夠將全球資產網路推向市場,為客戶提供端到端的解決方案,這是獨一無二的,也得到了客戶的認可。

  • Turning to slide 9. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA declined 2.4% year-over-year to $327 million and full year adjusted EBITDA declined 2.3% to $1.3 billion, both in line with our expectations. Fourth quarter AFFO per share was flat compared to the prior year at $0.83 and full year AFFO per share grew 2.4% to $3.37 per share, both ahead of our expectations and consensus. As we progress through the wrap-up of 2025, our first full year as a publicly traded REIT, our tax team was able to successfully enhance its tax planning initiatives to substantially drive upside to our guidance.

    翻到第9張投影片。第四季調整後 EBITDA 年減 2.4% 至 3.27 億美元,全年調整後 EBITDA 年減 2.3% 至 13 億美元,均符合我們的預期。第四季調整後營運資金(AFFO)每股盈餘與去年同期持平,為0.83美元;全年調整後營運資金(AFFO)每股盈餘成長2.4%,達3.37美元,皆超出我們的預期和普遍預期。隨著我們即將結束 2025 年,也就是我們作為一家上市 REIT 的第一個完整年度,我們的稅務團隊成功地加強了稅務規劃舉措,從而大幅提高了我們的業績預期。

  • We finished the year with a current tax expense for AFFO of $15 million versus our prior guidance of $30 million to $35 million. Our fourth quarter tax expense was better than our expectations by approximately $18 million or $0.07 per share. On a go-forward basis, we expect about half of that beat to be sustainable. Hats off to our tax team for driving continuous improvement in our tax structure. Ultimately, even if we excluded $0.04 of nonrecurring tax benefits, we still came in above the high end of the guidance range.

    本年度調整後營運資金 (AFFO) 的當期稅金支出為 1,500 萬美元,而我們先前的預期為 3,000 萬美元至 3,500 萬美元。我們第四季的稅收支出比預期好約 1800 萬美元,即每股 0.07 美元。展望未來,我們預計其中大約一半的節拍能夠持續下去。向我們的稅務團隊致敬,感謝他們不斷改進我們的稅務架構。最終,即使我們排除 0.04 美元的非經常性稅收優惠,我們的結果仍然高於指導範圍的上限。

  • In addition, our heightened cash flow focus allowed us to better manage recurring maintenance capital expenditures, allowing us to come in slightly lower than our guidance at $56 million for the quarter. We know investors focus on same-store NOI, and so do we, but we are also focused on driving every lever of efficiency and cash generation, not just same-store metrics. We are proud to see our team members also focus on EBITDA and AFFO outperformance.

    此外,我們更加重視現金流,從而能夠更好地管理經常性維護資本支出,使我們本季的實際支出略低於預期,為 5,600 萬美元。我們知道投資人關注的是同店淨營業收入,我們也是如此,但我們也專注於推動提高效率和現金流的每一個槓桿,而不僅僅是同店指標。我們很自豪地看到我們的團隊成員也專注於 EBITDA 和 AFFO 的優異表現。

  • To that end, today, I want to announce that we have accelerated our internal efforts to drive efficiencies on our admin and indirect expense cost base. We see opportunities to further streamline our organization while continuing to fully support our team members in the field. We have line of sight to $50 million plus of annualized cost savings by year-end 2026 by streamlining and centralizing select functions. We have been studying this opportunity for a couple of quarters and believe we can prudently rightsize the combined teams to drive immediate savings and speed up decision-making. We see about half of this hitting 2026, and we'll describe how we layer this into our guidance further in my prepared remarks.

    為此,今天,我想宣布,我們已經加快了內部工作,以提高行政和間接費用成本的效率。我們看到了進一步精簡組織架構的機會,同時將繼續全力支持第一線團隊成員。透過精簡和集中特定職能,我們預計在 2026 年底前實現每年 5,000 萬美元以上的成本節約。我們已經研究這個機會幾個季度了,相信我們可以謹慎地調整合併後的團隊規模,從而立即節省成本並加快決策速度。我們預計其中大約一半將在 2026 年實現,我將在準備好的演講稿中進一步闡述我們如何將此納入我們的指導方針。

  • Turning to slide 10. We ended the quarter with total net debt of $7.7 billion and total liquidity of $1.9 billion. During the quarter, we issued $700 million of 7-year eurobonds at a 4.125% coupon and locked in a $1.25 billion floating to fixed forward swap at a rate of 3.15% through February 2028. These fourth quarter transactions come on the back of our inaugural USD 500 million bond offering issued at a coupon of 5.25% in June of 2025. We appreciate the confidence of our fixed income investors in our investment-grade rated balance sheet.

    翻到第10張投影片。本季末,我們的淨債務總額為 77 億美元,流動資金總額為 19 億美元。本季度,我們發行了 7 億美元的 7 年期歐洲債券,票面利率為 4.125%,並鎖定了 12.5 億美元的浮動利率轉固定利率遠期互換,利率為 3.15%,有效期至 2028 年 2 月。這些第四季的交易是在我們首次發行 5 億美元債券之後完成的,該債券於 2025 年 6 月發行,票面利率為 5.25%。我們感謝固定收益投資者對我們投資等級資產負債表的信心。

  • We welcome all these new global fixed income investors to our call, and I look forward to meeting you in the coming months. On leverage ratios, you can see here that our net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 6.0 times at the end of the quarter. Also on this slide, we added what we hope is a helpful supplemental disclosure commonly asked for by our investors. This metric, adjusted net debt to transaction adjusted EBITDA adjusts for the $1 billion of capital investments made into our development pipeline, the corresponding non-stabilized NOI and the NOI tied to intra-quarter acquisitions or dispositions.

    我們歡迎所有這些新的全球固定收益投資者參加我們的電話會議,我期待在接下來的幾個月與你們見面。從槓桿比率來看,您可以看到,截至本季末,我們的淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 6.0 倍。此外,在這張投影片上,我們還添加了投資者通常要求提供的、我們希望對投資者有所幫助的補充揭露資訊。此指標(經調整的淨債務與經交易調整的 EBITDA)調整了我們開發項目儲備的 10 億美元資本投資、相應的非穩定 NOI 以及與季度內收購或處置相關的 NOI。

  • Under this methodology, which is consistent with the reporting practices of other top companies within the REIT sector like Prologis and First Industrial, our leverage is 5.2 times. Also, keep in mind that our development projects have been significantly derisked given most of these projects are anchored by customers with long-term commitments. Thanks to our new great leader of Investor Relations, Ki Bin Kim, who many of you know from his prior life, you will notice this and other supplemental disclosure enhancements now and into the future.

    根據這種方法,與 Prologis 和 First Industrial 等 REIT 行業其他頂級公司的報告做法一致,我們的槓桿率為 5.2 倍。此外,請記住,由於我們的大多數開發項目都由具有長期承諾的客戶支持,因此這些項目的風險已大大降低。感謝我們新任投資者關係負責人金基彬先生(許多人之前就認識他),您將會注意到現在和將來會有這項以及其他補充披露方面的改進。

  • Finally, I would be remiss to not mention the sale of our Santa Maria site, a great example of the shareholder value-enhancing transactions we are evaluating. As Greg mentioned, we will explore every opportunity to address the valuation mismatch between the public and private markets, including joint ventures and/or partial monetization actions that help generate capital and highlight the locked-up potential in our world-class portfolio.

    最後,我必須提及我們聖瑪麗亞基地的出售,這是我們正在評估的提升股東價值的交易的一個很好的例子。正如格雷格所提到的,我們將探索一切機會來解決公開市場和私募市場之間的估值錯配問題,包括合資企業和/或部分變現行動,以幫助產生資金並突出我們世界一流投資組合中尚未開發的潛力。

  • On Page 11, let's discuss our outlook for 2026. We are initiating 2026 guidance with same-store NOI growth of minus 4% to minus 1%, total warehouse NOI growth of minus 2% to plus 1%, GIS NOI growth of 0% to 2%, adjusted EBITDA of $1.25 billion to $1.3 billion and AFFO per share of $2.75 to $3 per share. You can also see the additional guidance details we have provided in the past, including admin of $465 million to $480 million, stock-based comp of $125 million, interest expense of $340 million to $360, current tax expense for AFFO calculations of $20 million to $30 million and recurring CapEx of $170 million to $180 million.

    在第 11 頁,讓我們討論一下我們對 2026 年的展望。我們首次發布 2026 年業績指引,預計同店淨營業收入成長率為 -4% 至 -1%,總倉庫淨營業收入成長率為 -2% 至 +1%,GIS 淨營業收入成長率為 0% 至 2%,調整後 EBITDA 為 12.5 億美元至 13 億美元,每股調整後營運資金為 2.75 美元至 3.75 美元。您還可以查看我們過去提供的其他指導詳情,包括 4.65 億美元至 4.8 億美元的管理費用、1.25 億美元的股票補償、3.4 億美元至 3.6 億美元的利息支出、2000 萬美元至 3000 萬美元的 AFFO 計算的當前稅費資本支出以及 1.7 億美元的經常性支出。

  • Further, we expect our same-store NOI cadence to start the year at the lower end of our annual range and see improvement into the second half. Supporting this outlook will be the ramp of our development projects and the 2025 purchased M&A coming online throughout the year. We will also see acceleration of our productivity and SG&A initiatives as we move through the year. As we centralize and optimize some field expenditures into admin, this will create a modest headwind to admin expense. This will also conversely act as a tailwind of about 100 basis points to 2026 same-store NOI.

    此外,我們預計今年年初同店淨營業收入將處於年度預期範圍的下限,並在下半年有所改善。支撐這一前景的是我們開發項目的逐步推進以及2025年收購的併購項目在年內陸續上線。隨著年內推進,我們的生產力提升與銷售、管理及行政費用控制措施也將加速推進。隨著我們將一些現場支出集中並優化到行政管理中,這將對行政費用造成一定的不利影響。反過來,這也將對 2026 年同店淨營業收入發揮約 100 個基點的推動作用。

  • Ultimately, our guidance for admin is $465 million to $480 million, which contemplates the field cost shifts, inflation and higher 2026 bonus. These items will be offset by the cost savings initiatives we outlined earlier. Together, these factors and the typical seasonal shift from Q4 to Q1 will result in adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2026 following a sequential decline comparable to that experienced in the first quarter of 2025.

    最終,我們對行政管理的指導意見是 4.65 億美元至 4.8 億美元,其中考慮了現場成本變化、通貨膨脹和更高的 2026 年獎金。這些費用將透過我們先前概述的成本節約措施來抵銷。綜合這些因素以及從第四季度到第一季的典型季節性變化,2026 年第一季的調整後 EBITDA 將出現與 2025 年第一季類似的環比下降。

  • Finally, AFFO in 2026 will experience a headwind from expiring interest rate hedges and from annualized interest expense from the US dollar and euro bond offerings we did in the middle of 2025. However, prudent CapEx management and improved tax planning will allow us to deliver a solid base of cash flow per share. All of this should set us up to deliver a solid 2026 and allow us to focus on continuing to mature the organization and remain the industry leader for years to come.

    最後,2026 年的 AFFO 將受到到期的利率對沖以及我們在 2025 年年中進行的美元和歐元債券發行所產生的年度利息支出的不利影響。然而,審慎的資本支出管理和改進的稅務規劃將使我們能夠實現穩健的每股現金流基礎。所有這些都將為我們實現2026年的穩健發展奠定基礎,並使我們能夠專注於繼續改善組織,並在未來幾年保持行業領先地位。

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Now that Robb has walked you through our 2026 guidance, I want to reaffirm that while we're operating in a difficult environment in certain markets, we believe Lineage remains extremely well positioned to exit these challenges as an even stronger company by increasing our future operating leverage across the business. Allow me to summarize with 4 key points. First, our industry is showing signs of normalization with a return to normal seasonality, customer inventory destocking largely behind us and many markets stabilizing after digesting new supply.

    羅伯已經向大家詳細介紹了我們 2026 年的業績指引,我想重申,雖然我們在某些​​市場面臨艱難的經營環境,但我們相信 Lineage 仍然處於非常有利的地位,能夠通過提高未來業務的運營槓桿,使公司變得更加強大,從而擺脫這些挑戰。讓我用以下4點來總結一下。首先,隨著季節性恢復正常,我們所在的行業正在出現正常化的跡象,客戶庫存去庫存的情況已基本結束,許多市場在消化了新的供應後趨於穩定。

  • Second, we are focused on controlling the controllables as highlighted by our $50 million admin and indirect expense saving announcement. These are in addition to our already in progress productivity initiatives, including LinOS that are expected to offset inflation again this year. Third, while not built into our guidance, we see potential headwinds turning into tailwinds, including reduced inflation, interest rate reduction, consumer tax stimulus and international trade stabilization.

    其次,我們專注於控制可控因素,正如我們宣布節省 5000 萬美元的行政和間接費用所強調的那樣。除了這些之外,我們還在推進生產力提升計劃,包括 LinOS,預計今年將再次抵消通貨膨脹的影響。第三,雖然我們的指導方針中沒有考慮到這一點,但我們看到潛在的不利因素正在轉變為有利因素,包括通貨膨脹下降、利率降低、消費者稅收刺激和國際貿易穩定。

  • Lastly, while our balance sheet is already in great shape, we will continue to look for opportunities to unlock value, further enhancing our liquidity. This will maintain our investment-grade rating and enable us to opportunistically take advantage of strategic investment opportunities. Before turning it over to your questions, I'll provide a quick update on LinOS, our proprietary warehouse execution system. As of today, we've deployed LinOS to 10 sites and expect to at least double that number in 2026 before accelerating even further in 2027.

    最後,雖然我們的資產負債表狀況良好,但我們將繼續尋找釋放價值的機會,進一步增強我們的流動性。這將維持我們的投資等級評級,並使我們能夠抓住策略投資機會。在回答各位的問題之前,我先簡單介紹一下我們專有的倉庫執行系統 LinOS。截至目前,我們已在 10 個站點部署了 LinOS,預計到 2026 年該數字至少翻一番,然後在 2027 年進一步加速。

  • We remain confident and on track to deliver the savings we outlined at Nareit in December of $110 million run rate savings over 3 to 5 years. When I take a step back and look at our company, I see the largest best positioned player in a mission-critical business with excellent team members in a resilient long-term industry. The cash flow generation of our company remains strong. Our balance sheet remains solid, and our dividend is well covered and likely to grow over time. We grew this business successfully for 15 years leading up to the IPO, and we believe the industry's fundamentals are stabilizing. Again, I want to thank our global team members for their dedication and commitment to our customers.

    我們仍然有信心並按計劃實現我們在 12 月 Nareit 會議上提出的目標,即在 3 到 5 年內每年節省 1.1 億美元。當我退後一步審視我們公司時,我看到的是一家規模最大、地位最穩固的公司,在一項至關重要的業務中擁有優秀的團隊成員,身處一個具有韌性的長期行業。我公司現金流狀況依然強勁。我們的資產負債表依然穩健,股息支付充足,並且隨著時間的推移可能會成長。在上市前的 15 年裡,我們成功地發展了這項業務,我們相信該行業的基本面正在穩定下來。再次感謝我們全球團隊成員對客戶的奉獻與付出。

  • Operator, at this time, I'd like to open it up for questions.

    操作員,現在我想開放提問環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ronald Kamdem, Morgan Stanley.

    羅納德‧卡姆登,摩根士丹利。

  • Ronald Kamdem - Analyst

    Ronald Kamdem - Analyst

  • Great. I just had a question on the same-store NOI guidance. You exited the year down 5%. You talked about sort of the first half versus second half dichotomy in 2026. And the disclosure on the markets that are stabilizing down, I think, is really helpful. But just wondering if you could just contextualize just the conviction on the same-store getting better. And when you think about sort of the markets and the different supply cycle, any sort of numbers on how the same-store NOI ranges between those buckets?

    偉大的。我有一個關於同店淨營業收入指導原則的問題。今年結束時,你的虧損是 5%。你談到了2026年上半年和下半年的二分法。我認為,揭露市場趨於穩定下跌的資訊真的很有幫助。但我只是想知道,您能否具體解釋一下您為何如此確信同一家門市的情況會好轉。當你考慮到市場和不同的供應週期時,有沒有關於這些不同區間內同店淨營業收入 (NOI) 差異的數據?

  • Robb LeMasters - Chief Financial Officer

    Robb LeMasters - Chief Financial Officer

  • that Greg and I talked about. First was on the volume or occupancy side, if you will. We're coming into the year in 2026 at a little bit of a lower level. You can see that in our same-store metrics. So you can see that we're going to ultimately have that as a little bit of a headwind as we go in. That's just a minor headwind as we go into 2026. The second element of how we thought about our guidance is that while we're seeing great net price put out to the market, we have the same factors that impacted us in 2025 in terms of mix, in terms of import/export just as we look out.

    就是我和格雷格談論的那件事。首先是從入住率或入住率來看。進入 2026 年,我們的水準會略微下降一些。您可以從我們的同店指標看出這一點。所以你可以看出,我們最終會遇到一些阻力。這只是我們在邁入 2026 年時遇到的一點小阻力。我們制定指導方針的第二個要素是,雖然我們看到市場上出現了非常好的淨價,但就產品組合、進出口而言,我們仍然面臨著與 2025 年相同的影響因素。

  • And so that ultimately will be a little bit of a drag of our revenue per pallet, if you will. Again, we're seeing net pricing of 1% to 2% that blends just slightly lower. And then the final factor as we thought about it is just we are fighting inflation overall as a company. We're doing a lot on the productivity side. And so we're really striving to keep NOI margin, if you will, flat. But then, of course, you have just minor pressure there. We saw a little bit of that in 2025. So those three factors really kind of blend up. And we'll see a good pattern as we evolve through the year. As we said, we're starting at the low end, but all the initiatives that Greg outlined really sets us up nicely as we kind of move through the year.

    因此,從長遠來看,這會對我們的每個托盤收入造成一定程度的拖累。再次,我們看到淨定價在 1% 到 2% 之間,混合比例略低一些。最後,我們考慮的最後一個因素是,我們公司整體上都在與通貨膨脹作鬥爭。我們在提高生產力方面做了很多工作。因此,我們正在努力維持淨營業收入利潤率(NOI利潤率)保持不變。當然,那裡的壓力只會很小。我們在 2025 年看到了些許這樣的跡象。所以這三個因素其實是交織在一起的。隨著時間的推移,我們會看到一個好的發展趨勢。正如我們所說,我們是從低端起步的,但格雷格概述的所有舉措確實為我們今年的發展奠定了良好的基礎。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

    瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

  • Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

    Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

  • Can you talk through the impact of idling assets? How many assets did you idle during the quarter? Did that have a positive impact on occupancy? And if you can quantify that? And then also, if you're idling assets, what are the add-backs to earnings just to try to get a better understanding of kind of what has been moving in and out of the same-store pool and the financial aspects.

    能詳細談談資產閒置的影響嗎?本季您有多少資產處於閒置狀態?這是否對入住率產生了正面影響?如果可以量化的話?此外,如果您閒置資產,收益中需要添加哪些項目,以便更好地了解同店資產池的流入和流出情況以及財務方面的情況。

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. Thanks, Michael. So last year, we idled 10 sites and the benefits are obvious. We can move labor, move the customers to adjacent sites and lower our overall cost and increase our occupancy in the receiving sites. This for 2026, because our physical occupancy is relatively strong, we don't think we'll see quite as many opportunities in 2026 as 2025. And the overall impact on the NOI and the occupancy was pretty negligible. We took out less than 1% or around 1% of our supply. And as far as how we treat these, we don't add back any of these costs. They roll into our non-same-store pool and roll up to AFFO and EBITDA accordingly.

    當然。謝謝你,麥可。所以去年我們停用了 10 個站點,其好處顯而易見。我們可以調配勞動力,將客戶轉移到鄰近地點,降低整體成本,並提高接收地點的入住率。鑑於我們 2026 年的實際入住率相對較高,我們認為 2026 年的機會不會像 2025 年那麼多。對營業淨收入和入住率的整體影響微乎其微。我們取出的庫存不到1%,或說大約只有1%。至於我們如何處理這些費用,我們不會把這些成本加回去。它們計入我們的非同店利潤池,並相應地計入調整後營運資金 (AFFO) 和息稅折舊攤銷前利潤 (EBITDA)。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs.

    Caitlin Burrows,高盛員工。

  • Caitlin Burrows - Analyst

    Caitlin Burrows - Analyst

  • On dispositions, the noncore [ SoCal ] disposition you did, what made that property noncore? And how representative is the mid-6% cap rate in the US? And then are you willing to sell international assets? And what types of multiples or cap rates are you seeing in the international assets?

    關於資產處置,你所做的非核心[南加州]資產處置,是什麼使該資產成為非核心資產?在美國,6%左右的資本化率有多大的代表性?那麼,您是否願意出售國際資產?您在國際資產中看到的倍數或資本化率是什麼樣的?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Caitlin. So the [ SoCal ] asset, I would say, was kind of a medium quality asset in our US portfolio. It was a single user and did not support any of the surrounding public customers in that region. And so the user wanted to purchase it. It was a reasonable price for us, reasonable valuation. So we decided to go ahead and achieve a little bit of liquidity there. As far as other dispositions, Robb will probably talk about this on other questions, but we're looking at the entire portfolio to optimize and certainly analyzing the public versus private disconnect in valuations and kind of more to come on that as the year progresses. Nothing to announce today.

    凱特琳。所以,我認為[南加州]資產在我們美國投資組合中屬於中等品質資產。這是一個單一用戶服務,不為該地區的任何週邊公共客戶提供支援。所以用戶想買它。對我們來說,這是一個合理的價格,估價也合理。所以我們決定繼續推進,爭取獲得一些流動資金。至於其他資產處置方面,羅布可能會在其他問題上談到這一點,但我們正在審視整個投資組合以進行優化,當然也會分析上市和非上市資產估值之間的脫節,隨著時間的推移,我們會對此進行更多探討。今天沒有什麼要宣布的。

  • Robb LeMasters - Chief Financial Officer

    Robb LeMasters - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. I guess I would just comment, I had the group, as I'm new, kind of look at the overall environment and what we're seeing in terms of transactions and actually pleasantly surprised with some of the comps that I'm seeing out there. Over the past year, we've seen over $1 billion at least of transactions that we've been tracking, whether it's DHL or Cold-Link or otherwise. And of course, we're familiar with the multiple we saw on our property.

    是的。我想說的是,因為我是新來的,所以我讓團隊觀察了一下整體環境以及我們在交易方面看到的情況,實際上,我看到的一些比較數據讓我感到驚喜。過去一年,我們追蹤到的交易額至少超過 10 億美元,無論是 DHL、Cold-Link 或其他公司。當然,我們對在我們房產上看到的多個項目也很熟悉。

  • But we're really seeing strong mid-teens EBITDA multiples. Now sometimes these are in certain geographies, but that ultimately translates into those low 6% to mid-6 cap rates. So we're feeling good about it. I wouldn't say there's any comment we have about specific geographies per your exact question. We'll really look, as Greg said, as are we the best owner of that asset or not. And so we'll be going through an evaluation just of our whole portfolio as we always do.

    但我們確實看到了十幾倍的強勁 EBITDA 倍數。現在,這些情況有時會出現在某些特定地區,但這最終會轉化為 6% 到 6% 左右的資本化率。所以我們對此感覺很好。就您提出的具體問題而言,我並不認為我們針對特定地區有任何評論。正如格雷格所說,我們會認真考慮,我們是否是該資產的最佳所有者。因此,我們將像往常一樣,對我們的整個投資組合進行評估。

  • We'll be looking very unemotionally at that. And frankly, we see the opportunity to create capacity for opportunities that we are almost sure will present themselves. We don't currently have anything on the docket now, but we're looking hard as this industry turns, really having the firepower to do whatever we want to do.

    我們會非常冷靜地看待這件事。坦白說,我們看到了為那些我們幾乎可以肯定將會出現的機會創造條件的機會。我們目前還沒有任何計劃,但隨著行業的發展,我們正在密切關注,我們確實有足夠的實力去做任何我們想做的事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

    Alexander Goldfarb,Piper Sandler。

  • Alexander Goldfarb - Analyst

    Alexander Goldfarb - Analyst

  • Just going back to the topic of customers switching. You mentioned sort of 1 to 2 years after a tenant takes a new facility that they may end up switching. We've been hearing about this for quite some time. And I just want to get a sense, is this more of a talking point? Or are you seeing like tangible or anecdotal evidence where, hey, in the past 6 months, we've seen a noticeable uptick in people moving out of new entrants into your facilities? Just trying to see as the supply ebbs, how much this is really a tailwind versus just something that is a talking point, as I say?

    回到客戶轉換的話題。您提到租戶在新設施投入使用後約 1 到 2 年內可能會更換設施。我們已經聽說這件事很久了。我只是想了解一下,這是否是一個值得討論的話題?或者,您是否看到一些確鑿的證據或軼事證據表明,在過去的 6 個月裡,我們看到搬離您設施的人員數量明顯增加,或者有新人員進入您的設施?我只是想看看,隨著供應減少,這究竟是真正的利好因素,還是只是人們談論的話題,就像我說的?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Thanks, Alex, and happy birthday to you. So as we talked about in the prepared materials, we are seeing a clear trend. So in the US, where we're seeing really the only region in the world where we're seeing the excess supply, 60-plus percent of our markets are have not seen excess new supply. We had to work through the destocking, but those have been on stable ground for some time, and we expect them to be on stable ground in 2026.

    是的。謝謝你,亞歷克斯,祝你生日快樂。正如我們在準備的材料中所討論的那樣,我們看到了一個明顯的趨勢。因此,在美國,我們看到世界上唯一出現供應過剩的地區,超過 60% 的市場沒有新的供應過剩。我們必須經歷去庫存化的過程,但這些庫存已經穩定了一段時間,我們預計到 2026 年它們仍將保持穩定。

  • Where we're directly to your question and why we feel so good about our ability to compete in the medium term is because markets like New Jersey, Dallas, Houston, where this new supply hit earliest, we did take a hit there. And now we're seeing this isn't anecdotal. We're seeing a lot of customers come back to us because of our because of all the structural advantages we have, especially our service excellence. And so we can group those into a very large pool and say, the NOI went down and now the NOI is up or stabilizing.

    我們之所以直接回答您的問題,以及為什麼我們對中期內的競爭力充滿信心,是因為像新澤西、達拉斯、休士頓這樣的市場,由於新供應最早湧入,我們確實受到了衝擊。現在我們看到,這並非個案。我們看到許多顧客因為我們擁有的各種結構性優勢而再次光顧,尤其是我們卓越的服務。因此,我們可以將這些歸為一類,並說,NOI 下降了,現在 NOI 上升了或趨於穩定。

  • And then when we look at our 2026 plan, we can see late cycle markets like Allentown and Miami, where we're still facing pressure. But the fact that we've seen so many markets go through this cycle, and we're seeing ourselves starting to win again gives us confidence that we can kind of work through this last wave and the new supply being delivered in '26 and beyond is minimal. And so even without supply absorption, which we think there's lots of reason to believe that will happen faster than some may fear, we think we can win in this existing environment.

    然後,當我們審視 2026 年的計畫時,我們可以看到像阿倫敦和邁阿密這樣的周期後期市場,我們仍然面臨著壓力。但我們看到許多市場都經歷了這個週期,而且我們也開始再次取得勝利,這讓我們有信心能夠度過這最後一波浪潮,而且2026年及以後的新供應量也微乎其微。因此,即使沒有供應吸收(我們認為有很多理由相信供應吸收的速度會比一些人擔心的要快),我們認為我們也能在這個現有環境下取得成功。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Blaine Heck, Wells Fargo.

    Blaine Heck,富國銀行。

  • Blaine Heck - Analyst

    Blaine Heck - Analyst

  • More of a high-level question. There's been a lot of attention paid to the impact of AI on different businesses over the last several weeks and months. I know you guys have done a lot on the technology enhancement and data analytics sides already. But in general, how do you see your business being impacted by AI, whether that be on the warehouse or GIS side?

    這更像是一個高層次的問題。在過去的幾週和幾個月裡,人工智慧對不同行業的影響受到了廣泛關注。我知道你們在技術提升和數據分析方面已經做了很多工作。但總的來說,您認為人工智慧會對您的業務產生怎樣的影響,無論是在倉庫方面還是地理資訊系統方面?

  • Robb LeMasters - Chief Financial Officer

    Robb LeMasters - Chief Financial Officer

  • So I'm glad you asked that. We've been thinking a whole lot about this. I mean, so certainly, AI promises to make supply chain more efficient. And that could potentially reduce storage needs over time. But supply chains take a long time to change and optimize. And what we're seeing right now is that customer inventory levels are effectively at the bottom, given a couple of years of destocking after COVID, high interest rates, food inflation, international trade chaos driven by the tariffs, for all these reasons, our customers' inventories are very low.

    很高興你問了這個問題。我們一直在認真思考這個問題。我的意思是,人工智慧當然有望提高供應鏈效率。隨著時間的推移,這可能會減少儲存需求。但供應鏈的改變和優化需要很長時間。我們現在看到的情況是,由於新冠疫情後幾年的去庫存、高利率、食品通膨、關稅引發的國際貿易混亂等種種原因,客戶的庫存水準實際上已經降至最低點,因此客戶的庫存非常低。

  • But when you take a step back and you think about our industry and AI, we think we're one of the most insulated from disruption. And actually, at Lineage, we think we have some of the most upside driven from AI. So think about the industry first. So fundamentally, cold storage infrastructure is necessary to bridge the duration between when food is produced and when it's consumed. And AI cannot change when food is produced or when it's consumed. So cold storage is durable and essential in the long term, even in the world of AI. And there's millions of examples of this.

    但當我們退後一步,思考我們所在的產業和人工智慧時,我們認為我們是受顛覆性影響最小的產業之一。事實上,在 Lineage,我們認為我們擁有人工智慧帶來的最大成長潛力。所以首先要考慮產業本身。因此,從根本上講,冷藏基礎設施對於彌合食品生產和消費之間的時間間隔至關重要。人工智慧無法改變食物的生產時間和消費時間。因此,即使在人工智慧時代,冷藏技術從長遠來看也是持久且必不可少的。這樣的例子數不勝數。

  • But think about a frozen chicken, frozen French fries and steak, we don't think those will ever ship directly from a processing plant directly to somebody's home. And AI can't change the seasons nor when seasonal products are harvested. So they'll always need to be stored. AI is not going to change the need for people need. We're pretty sure that's a durable trend. And our industry has hard expensive assets required to operate our industry and AI cannot create nor replicate those. And if AI does change how consumers behave, so if there's more online shopping, more multichannel, that just generally increases the need for warehousing because of more SKUs and more nodes of distribution.

    但想想冷凍雞肉、冷凍薯條和牛排,我們認為這些食品永遠不會直接從加工廠運送到某人的家中。人工智慧既不能改變季節,也不能改變時令產品的收穫時間。所以它們總是需要儲存起來。人工智慧並不會改變人們的需求。我們相當肯定這將是一個持久的趨勢。我們的產業擁有營運所需的昂貴硬資產,而人工智慧既不能創造也不能複製這些資產。如果人工智慧確實改變了消費者的行為方式,例如,如果網路購物增多、多通路購物增多,那麼由於 SKU 增多和分銷節點增多,對倉儲的需求總體上就會增加。

  • Also, I think as our recent announcement is evidence of our industry has an evolving data center and self-driving electric vehicle use case that's unique to our high-powered assets. So plug-ins for electric vehicles and using our excess power to fuel small to midsized data centers. And so but if you double-click on the industry to a lineage perspective, we think we're farthest along on the use of AI. We've been investing in data science, as many of you know, for more than 10 years. We're cloud native. We're API-oriented already. We already rely on AI to make operational decisions within our warehouse.

    此外,我認為我們最近的公告證明,我們行業正在不斷發展資料中心和自動駕駛電動車用例,而這些用例是我們高性能資產所獨有的。所以,我們可以為電動車提供插電裝置,並利用我們多餘的電力為中小型資料中心供電。所以,如果你從發展歷程的角度深入分析這個產業,我們認為我們在人工智慧的應用方面走得最遠。正如你們許多人所知,我們已經在數據科學領域投資了十多年。我們採用雲端原生技術。我們已經面向 API 開發了。我們已經在倉庫營運決策中運用了人工智慧。

  • The most recent example of that is our rollout of LinOS, where our AI, our patented AI is deciding which operator performs, which task, which priority to optimize labor and to optimize our customer performance. We're also already using AI for our entire automation stack. I think everybody knows we're the world leader in cold storage automation for our energy management initiatives that have shown over many years to offset energy inflation. And we're also using AI in our computer vision in a technology we call the Lineage Eye in our most tech forward warehouses, and that's technology that basically identifies what the pallet is and its contents and streamlines the inbound process and makes our receiving more accurate and efficient.

    最近的例子是我們推出的 LinOS,其中我們的人工智慧(我們獲得專利的人工智慧)決定由哪個操作員執行哪個任務、哪個優先級,以優化勞動力並優化我們的客戶績效。我們已經在整個自動化堆疊中應用了人工智慧。我認為大家都知道,我們在冷庫自動化領域處於世界領先地位,這得益於我們多年來的能源管理舉措,這些舉措已經證明能夠抵銷能源通膨。此外,我們還在最先進的倉庫中使用人工智慧電腦視覺技術,我們稱之為 Lineage Eye,這項技術可以識別托盤及其內容物,簡化入庫流程,使我們的收貨更加準確和高效。

  • We're also best positioned and maybe this is the most important one. We're best positioned to leverage robotics and AGVs or automated guided vehicles because of our approach with LinOS. LinOS is built to tell robots the next task, the next best task just like it tells people the next best task today. And so as AGVs and robots get certified for cold and they're quickly getting there, we are ready to inter read those into our workforce and gain efficiencies faster than anybody else in our space, we feel.

    我們也處於最佳位置,而這或許是最重要的一點。由於我們採用 LinOS 技術,因此我們能夠更好地利用機器人和 AGV(自動導引車)。LinOS 的設計目的是告訴機器人下一個任務,下一個最佳任務,就像它告訴人們今天下一個最佳任務一樣。因此,隨著 AGV 和機器人獲得低溫環境認證(而且它們正在迅速實現這一目標),我們感覺,我們已經準備好將它們融入我們的勞動力隊伍中,並比我們領域的任何其他人更快地提高效率。

  • We're also I think we proved we're effective acquirers and developers and can apply AI tools to the acquired companies and developments better than any other company. And lastly, we have far and away the largest data set of warehousing data and probably the biggest data set of temperature-controlled transportation data other than arguably C.H. Robinson. And we can harness that data to provide our customers with insights that help them optimize their supply chain overall. And so overall, yes, could this help customers optimize their supply chains over 10 years? Sure. But we think we're very much insulated from disruption as an industry, and we see upside across the business here at Lineage.

    我認為我們也證明了我們是高效的收購方和開發商,並且能夠比任何其他公司更好地將人工智慧工具應用於被收購的公司和開發項目。最後,我們擁有迄今為止最大的倉儲資料集,除了 C.H. Robinson 之外,我們可能擁有最大的溫控運輸資料集。我們可以利用這些數據,為客戶提供有助於他們優化整體供應鏈的洞察。所以總的來說,是的,這能否幫助客戶在 10 年內優化其供應鏈?當然。但我們認為,作為一個產業,我們受到的衝擊很小,而且我們看到了 Lineage 各個業務領域的成長潛力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Carroll, RBC Capital Markets.

    Michael Carroll,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

  • Michael Carroll - Analyst

    Michael Carroll - Analyst

  • Greg, can you provide us some color on the seasonal pickup that was delivered this past quarter? I mean how would you qualify that pickup? Was it more muted than normal seasonal patterns? Or was it in line with the historical patterns? And if it's more in line, I mean, can we assume that the inventory destocking is probably behind most of these customers? Or I guess, how should we think about this occupancy being higher than expected probably in the fourth quarter, at least versus consensus estimates?

    格雷格,你能給我們詳細介紹一下上個季度交付的季節性貨物嗎?我的意思是,你如何評價那輛皮卡?與正常的季節性變化相比,它是否更為平緩?或者,這是否符合歷史法則?如果情況更符合實際情況,我的意思是,我們是否可以假設庫存去庫存可能已經落後於大多數客戶?或者說,我們該如何看待第四季入住率可能高於預期(至少高於市場普遍預期)的情況呢?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Michael, good question. I mean we kind of called the bottom of inventory destocking in the first quarter of '25, and I think history is proving us right there. And in mid-'25, we said that the seasonal pattern was very much back to a normal seasonal pattern. The uptick happened a little bit later in it happened in July versus June and then it hit as normal.

    是的。邁克爾,問得好。我的意思是,我們大致預測到 2025 年第一季庫存去庫存的底部,我認為歷史正在證明我們是對的。2025 年中期,我們表示季節性模式已經基本恢復正常。疫情高峰出現的時間稍晚了一些,是在7月份而不是6月份,然後就恢復了正常水準。

  • So I think two things that are really important takeaways here. We believe inventory destocking is behind us. We believe our customers' inventories are at very, very low and lean levels given all the macro factors. We believe normal seasonality has returned, and we think that's evidence the evidence of that is our 400 basis points pickup in physical occupancy going into the fourth quarter. And we would expect a similar seasonal pattern, and it varies a little bit each year, year-to-year, but we would expect a similar pattern in 2026, and that's what our guidance is based on.

    所以我認為這裡有兩點非常重要的啟示。我們認為庫存清倉階段已經過去。鑑於所有宏觀因素,我們認為客戶的庫存水準非常非常低,屬於精簡狀態。我們認為正常的季節性已經恢復,我們認為第四季實體入住率上升 400 個基點就是最好的證明。我們預計2026年會出現類似的季節性模式,雖然每年都會略有不同,但我們預計2026年也會出現類似的模式,這也是我們做出預測的依據。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greg McGinniss, Scotiabank.

    格雷格·麥金尼斯,加拿大豐業銀行。

  • Greg McGinniss - Equity Analyst

    Greg McGinniss - Equity Analyst

  • I just want to talk on the Integrated Solutions. We saw the considerable margin improvement with the European disposition. Is there more room to run on that business? Would you get back into Europe? Can margin improve further from here?

    我只想談談整合解決方案。我們看到,歐洲市場的佈局帶來了顯著的利潤率提升。這個業務還有發展空間嗎?你會重返歐洲嗎?利潤率還能進一步提高嗎?

  • Robb LeMasters - Chief Financial Officer

    Robb LeMasters - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. I'll take that. It's Robb. So we had a really good margin performance in the fourth quarter. I think that's emblematic of kind of how we see the business. Now generally, the GIS segment has a strong Q2 and Q3, so just be aware of that. But overall, the reason the margin really ticked up was just as you shedded that European business, which frankly did not have comparable margin to the overall base, you take that out, you take the revenue out.

    是的。我接受。是羅伯。因此,我們在第四季度取得了非常好的利潤率表現。我認為這體現了我們看待這個行業的方式。一般來說,GIS 板塊在第二季和第三季表現強勁,所以請注意這一點。但總的來說,利潤率真正上升的原因是,當你剝離了歐洲業務時(坦白說,歐洲業務的利潤率與整體業務相比並不可比擬),你剝離了歐洲業務,也就剝離了收入。

  • And really, as you start looking at the fourth quarter, that's the way to start thinking of the underlying business. So we still see opportunity overall. We see good growth in that business. So of course, we'll leverage the cost there. But I think that's a good run rate to kind of be thinking about margins and the profile going forward.

    實際上,當你開始關注第四季時,這就是思考公司基本面的方式。所以總體而言,我們仍然看到機會。我們看到該業務發展勢頭良好。所以,我們當然會利用這部分成本優勢。但我認為這是一個不錯的運行速度,可以開始考慮利潤率和未來的發展前景了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Craig Mailman, Citi.

    克雷格‧梅爾曼,花旗銀行。

  • Craig Mailman - Analyst

    Craig Mailman - Analyst

  • I just want to circle back on the asset sales and kind of market potential pricing for assets. I know you guys said the 6 cap was on a user sale. Just curious, was that already a triple net lease? Or were you guys kind of operating that? And what do you think that would have been on a kind of a true sale to an investor rather than a user? And also, Robb, I think you said pricing may be in the mid-teens EBITDA. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you said that translates into the low 6% cap range. Could you kind of just bridge that comment and just provide as much color as you guys can?

    我只是想再談談資產出售以及資產的市場潛在定價問題。我知道你們說過6級上限提升是在用戶促銷活動中。我只是好奇,那份租賃合約已經是三方淨租賃合約了嗎?或者說,你們當時就是在進行某種形式的運作?那麼,你認為如果是真正賣給投資人而不是用戶,價格會是多少呢?還有,羅伯,我想你說過定價可能在十幾個百分點的 EBITDA 左右。如果我理解有誤請指正,但您說過這相當於 6% 的低上限範圍。你們能不能稍微補充一下這個評論,盡可能詳細地描述一下?

  • Robb LeMasters - Chief Financial Officer

    Robb LeMasters - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Overall, it was a triple net lease. So that was the property. It's always hard to say with the buyer and so forth, how would they play pay relative. We can't really go there. We think it was a good sale price overall. As I mentioned, we're seeing mid-teens EBITDA multiples and low to mid-6 cap rates. So ultimately, I mean, it depends on the region they're sold. It depends on the mix, depends on the buyer, as you say. So I'm just trying to give you a general sense for what it is, but it really matters what geography you're in and so forth and who the buyer is.

    是的。整體而言,這是一份三方淨租賃合約。這就是那處房產的情況。對於買家等等情況,很難說他們會如何支付相對費用。我們不能真的去那裡。我們認為整體來說,這個售價很划算。正如我之前提到的,我們看到 EBITDA 倍數在 15 倍左右,資本化率在 6 倍左右。所以歸根結底,我的意思是,這取決於它們在哪個地區銷售。正如你所說,這取決於產品組合,也取決於買家。所以我只是想給你一個大致的概念,但你所在的地理位置等等,以及買家是誰,都非常重要。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Griffin, Evercore.

    Michael Griffin,Evercore。

  • Michael Griffin - Equity Analyst

    Michael Griffin - Equity Analyst

  • I'm curious your thoughts on the feasibility of converting a lot of cold storage facilities out there to alternative uses. I know there have been some reports. I think there was a facility in LA that was getting converted to a sound stage. Greg, you talked about the potential for data center conversions. Is this a real catalyst to improve the supply picture? Or I realize any prospective investor would probably have to get in at a favorable basis. So is it just on the margin going to help supply? Just curious your thoughts there.

    我很想知道您對將大量冷庫設施改作他用這種可行性有何看法。我知道有一些報導。我認為洛杉磯有一個設施正在改造成攝影棚。格雷格,你談到了資料中心改造的潛力。這真的會成為改善供應情勢的催化劑嗎?或者說,我意識到任何潛在投資者可能都必須以優惠的價格才能入場。所以它只是在邊緣程度上能幫助供應嗎?只是好奇你對此有何看法。

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure, Michael. Let me take that question and broaden it a little bit just to our thoughts on overall supply. And so we think there's a bunch of reasons why supply could get absorbed over time faster than if you just take the new supply minus the 1% increase in end consumer demand. The first one is the one you highlighted there is just the alternative uses. I think we are seeing that. There was in the last couple of quarters, there was a facility in Atlanta that was quite large. I believe it was about 1 million square feet that was repurposed for residential.

    當然可以,麥可。讓我把這個問題稍微擴展一下,談談我們對整體供應的看法。因此,我們認為有很多原因導致供應量隨著時間的推移被吸收的速度比僅僅用新增供應量減去終端消費者需求 1% 的增長速度更快。第一種就是你標出來的那個,它只是替代用法。我認為我們正在看到這一點。在過去的幾個季度裡,亞特蘭大有一個相當大的設施。我相信大約有100萬平方英尺的建築被改建成了住宅。

  • We are days away from signing our second small data center installation, and we continue to pursue those types of opportunities as we have excess power in the network already. And we believe we have the ability to dial up power with the utilities over time. So I think this is a really real opportunity. It's not going to dramatically change the supply picture in itself in 2026. But we're evaluating our global portfolio. We've calculated how much excess power we have in a number of buildings already, and we're looking to see how much more power we can get in areas that would be attracted to data center partners.

    我們距離簽署第二個小型資料中心安裝專案僅剩幾天時間,而且由於我們的網路中已有剩餘電力,我們將繼續尋求此類機會。我們相信,隨著時間的推移,我們有能力逐步提高與公用事業公司的合作效率。所以我認為這是一個非常難得的機會。就其本身而言,它不會在2026年顯著改變供應格局。但我們正在評估我們的全球投資組合。我們已經計算出一些建築物中剩餘的電力有多少,並且我們正在研究在那些能夠吸引資料中心合作夥伴的地區,我們還能獲得多少額外的電力。

  • Other things that could impact the supply picture are we believe that some of the new entrants into our industry over the last 4 years based on our channel checks and direct conversations with some of these companies, we think that they'll exit the industry. And we think some of those assets, especially in kind of the most oversupply markets will not continue to be cold storage, and that will take out some supply. And where they're in good markets, if a competitor that is failing has 4 buildings, we want to be in the position to absorb 2 in the markets where we're full, and it would make sense to add those buildings to our network.

    其他可能影響供應情勢的因素包括:根據我們的管道調查和與其中一些公司的直接對話,我們認為過去 4 年進入我們行業的一些新企業將會退出該行業。我們認為,其中一些資產,尤其是在供應過剩最嚴重的市場中,將不再是冷庫,這將減少一些供應。在市場行情好的地區,如果一個經營不善的競爭對手擁有 4 棟樓,那麼在我們市場飽和的情況下,我們希望能夠吸收其中的 2 棟樓,並將這些樓添加到我們的網絡中是有意義的。

  • The other thing I'd like to highlight is obsolescence. And so over the last couple of years, especially coming out of COVID or during COVID, when every single pallet position basically in the US and around the world was full because our customers were overstocking, if you will, it didn't make sense to retire old assets because they could still cash flow them. And despite the kind of structural advantages of a little less productivity, a little more higher ongoing maintenance, it made sense to keep those open.

    我想強調的另一點是產品過時。因此,在過去的幾年裡,尤其是在新冠疫情之後或疫情期間,由於我們的客戶過度囤貨,美國乃至全世界的每一個托盤位基本上都滿了,所以淘汰舊資產沒有意義,因為他們仍然可以從中獲得現金流。儘管生產效率略低、日常維護成本略高,但保留這些設施在結構上具有一定的優勢,因此這樣做是有意義的。

  • But the average age of cold storage facilities here in the US is 42 years. And given that there is oversupply that we think we'll start to see some of these buildings being shuttered and repurposed to residential or various other applications. And we don't have perfect estimates here, but we think that number could approach up to 1% a year in the coming years. Also, we talked about this already, but the large operators have the advantage, Houston Cold basically have the advantage to idle facilities and take supply out that way.

    但美國冷庫設施的平均使用年資為 42 年。鑑於目前供應過剩,我們認為我們將會看到其中一些建築物被關閉,並改建為住宅或其他各種用途。雖然我們沒有精確的估計,但我們認為未來幾年這個數字可能會接近每年 1%。另外,我們之前也討論過這個問題,大型營運商具有優勢,休士頓冷鏈公司基本上可以利用閒置設施,透過這種方式減少供應。

  • Between us and Houston Cold, we took out 20 buildings last year. I think they said they're going to take out another, I don't know, what it was, 9 or 10 last week, and we'll do more this year as well. So that will lead to some supply being absorbed. And I think maybe most importantly, as I've already discussed, even in the current environment, we think the best capitalized operators with the best service, with the best long-term reputation with the best technology, with the best scope of services with the highest level of customer relationships are going to win. And even in this environment, we can be successful.

    去年,我們和休士頓寒流公司聯手拆毀了 20 棟建築物。我想他們說他們還要再打掉一個,我不知道,是多少個,上週打掉了 9 個還是 10 個,今年我們還會打掉更多。這樣一來,部分供應就會被消化掉。而且我認為,正如我之前討論過的,或許最重要的是,即使在當前環境下,我們認為資金最雄厚、服務最好、長期聲譽最好、技術最好、服務範圍最廣、客戶關係最好的運營商將會獲勝。即使在這種環境下,我們也能取得成功。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Samir Khanal, Bank of America.

    薩米爾·卡納爾,美國銀行。

  • Samir Khanal - Analyst

    Samir Khanal - Analyst

  • I guess, Greg, I'm sorry if I missed this, but when I look at the GIS segment and your guidance for the year, 0% to 2%. I mean it is a decel. You did, I think, 8% last year, double digit in 4Q. Is it just sort of tougher comps? Or is there something I'm missing?

    格雷格,如果我錯過了什麼,我很抱歉,但當我查看 GIS 部分以及你對今年的預測時,0% 到 2%。我的意思是,這是一個減速動作。我認為你們去年成長了 8%,第四季成長了兩位數。是不是比賽難度更高了?還是我遺漏了什麼?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. It's I mean we had a great year this year. So there are tougher comps, but there's a couple of things I'd highlight that are weighing on our guidance there. The first one is fuel. Fuel is down, and we actually we mark up fuel like we do everything else. So when fuel declines, especially as it's happening right now and is forecast to happen in the first half year, that weighs on our results. Also, as trucks as fuel is down and trucking continues to be relatively inexpensive, our rail business doesn't do as well. Modal shifting happens for economic reasons. And when truck is strong, rail is weak. And for those two reasons, we're a little bit more cautious on our guide in GIS for 2026.

    是的。我的意思是,我們今年過得非常棒。所以確實存在更難比較的情況,但有幾點因素會影響我們對這方面的指導意見,我想重點強調一下。第一樣是燃料。燃油價格下跌,但我們實際上像對待其他商品一​​樣,提高了燃油價格。因此,當燃料價格下跌時,尤其是像現在這樣,而且預計上半年還會繼續下跌,這會對我們的業績造成影響。此外,由於卡車燃料消耗量下降,卡車運輸成本仍相對較低,我們的鐵路運輸業務也因此受到影響。交通方式的轉變是出於經濟原因。卡車運輸強勢時,鐵路運輸則相對薄弱。基於這兩個原因,我們對 2026 年 GIS 指南持更加謹慎的態度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Daniel Guglielmo, Capital One Securities.

    Daniel Guglielmo,Capital One Securities。

  • Daniel Guglielmo - Analyst

    Daniel Guglielmo - Analyst

  • Can you just give us a quick update on the Lean journey? How many facilities have been done there to date? And as you roll out to additional warehouses, have there been any changes to that program or how you implement it?

    能否簡單介紹一下精益之旅的最新進展?截至目前,那裡已經建造了多少個設施?隨著您將該計劃推廣到更多倉庫,該計劃或實施方式是否有任何變化?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I mean we're up to, call it, one-third of our revenue base being directly supported by a Lean manager. We are taking those resources now and elevating them from a single building or 2 buildings to regional support. And we're also kind of joining their efforts with our LinOS deployment team. So we're deploying technology and process at the same time and seeing good results there even since the Nareit conference in December.

    是的。我的意思是,我們目前有高達三分之一的收入基礎是由精實管理者直接支持的。我們現在正將這些資源從一兩棟建築提升到區域支援。同時,我們的 LinOS 部署團隊也積極參與他們的工作。因此,我們正在同步部署技術和流程,並且自 12 月的 Nareit 會議以來,已經看到了良好的結果。

  • And so we're committed to Lean as a philosophy, as a way to remove waste from our business, and we continue down the same path we've been on and continue to see good results. And I think that's why you'll see year-over-year, we expect to offset inflation through those efforts and other productivity initiatives even before LinOS gets meaningful to our financial results.

    因此,我們致力於將精益作為一種理念,以消除業務中的浪費,我們將繼續沿著這條道路前進,並不斷取得良好的成果。我認為這就是為什麼你會看到,我們預計即使在 LinOS 對我們的財務業績產生實質影響之前,我們也能透過這些努力和其他生產力提升舉措來抵銷通貨膨脹的影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Todd Thomas, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    Todd Thomas,KeyBanc Capital Markets。

  • Todd Thomas - Analyst

    Todd Thomas - Analyst

  • I wanted to see if you're able to share in end of January or year-to-date occupancy update. And then I think you commented that the 600 basis point spread between physical and economic occupancy is expected to be stable throughout the year and that you are through a good portion of the volume-based guarantees and resets this year. Last year, there was a little bit of volatility moving from 4Q to 1Q. So I was just wondering if you can provide a little bit more detail on where you're at in that process.

    我想了解您是否能夠分享一月底或今年迄今為止的入住率更新數據。然後,我認為您評論說,實際入住率和經濟入住率之間 600 個基點的差額預計將在全年保持穩定,並且您今年已經完成了很大一部分基於數量的擔保和重置。去年,從第四季到第一季出現了一些波動。所以我想知道您能否更詳細地介紹一下您目前在這個過程中的進展。

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. So January has come in line with our forecast. For modeling purposes, keep in mind that the first quarter is a seasonally soft quarter. Historically, if you just look at kind of pre-COVID USDA data, the first quarter would be down 3-ish percent in occupancy from Q4. And again, we think the seasonal pattern this year will reflect more normal times. And so we would expect a step down from Q4 to Q1.

    當然。所以一月份的情況與我們的預測相符。為了便於建模,請記住第一季是季節性淡季。從歷史數據來看,如果只看新冠疫情前的美國農業部數據,第一季的入住率會比第四季下降3%左右。我們再次認為,今年的季節性模式將反映出更正常的時期。因此,我們預計第四季到第一季會出現下滑。

  • Also weighing on our Q1 is the ongoing reduction in the trend in import/export container volume. If you look at Q4, import/export volume was down 9% year-over-year, and that trend has continued into the first quarter, which we expect to be a headwind for us. With regard to the volume guarantees and the spread between physical and economic occupancy, 400 to 600 basis points is our normal. We would expect to hold that trend through the year. And I think as we've discussed in prior calls, we effectively mark-to-market the majority of our business each year.

    對我們第一季業績造成影響的還有進出口貨櫃吞吐量的持續下降趨勢。如果看一下第四季度,進出口量將年減了 9%,而且這一趨勢延續到了第一季度,我們預計這將對我們構成不利影響。關於銷售保證和實際入住率與經濟入住率之間的差額,400 至 600 個基點是我們的正常範圍。我們預計這一趨勢將持續到年底。而且我認為,正如我們在之前的電話會議中討論的那樣,我們每年實際上對大部分業務都進行了市值計價。

  • So there's no big resetting coming here in January. We've already worked through 65% of our revenue base as we sit here today on our contract negotiations. And that just gives us more confidence that the volume guarantee spread will be or the economic physical spread will be consistent, and we'll be able to achieve that net new pricing increases of 1% to 2%.

    所以一月不會有什麼大的調整。在我們今天坐在這裡進行合約談判的時候,我們已經消耗了 65% 的收入基礎。這讓我們更有信心,銷售保證價差或經濟實體價差將保持一致,我們將能夠實現 1% 到 2% 的淨新增價格成長。

  • Robb LeMasters - Chief Financial Officer

    Robb LeMasters - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. I might just comment that it's one of the lowest levels we've seen, if you look at our supplemental, we go back over several quarters, you look at our same-store data, that 6% really represents. So Greg had made comments earlier last year about working through sort of that disparity that we had in economic and physical.

    是的。我只想說,這是我們見過的最低水平之一。如果你看看我們的補充數據,回顧幾個季度,看看我們的同店數據,你會發現這 6% 的確代表了這一點。所以,格雷格去年早些時候曾發表過關於努力解決我們在經濟和物質方面存在的這種差距的評論。

  • So we sort of try to address that as early as we could. As we look at other players having to address that, that is a painful factor, just trying to work through your economic versus physical. And so I think the team has done a great job as I come in here of working that through and not having that as a headwind that others maybe have to contend with in the future.

    所以我們盡量儘早解決這個問題。當我們看到其他球員必須面對這個問題時,這確實是一個痛苦的因素,他們必須努力平衡經濟和體能之間的關係。所以我認為,在我加入球隊之後,團隊已經很好地解決了這個問題,沒有讓這個問題成為其他人將來可能需要面對的阻力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brendan Lynch, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的布倫丹·林奇。

  • Brendan Lynch - Analyst

    Brendan Lynch - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask on the evolving tariff situation and how it's going to impact your business. I think post Liberation Day, there were some concerns around seafood in particular. So is the current 10% or I guess it's now 15% blanket tariff better or worse than the tariff policies that have been in place since April?

    我想了解一下不斷變化的關稅情況以及它將如何影響貴公司的業務。我認為解放日之後,人們對海鮮尤其存在一些擔憂。那麼,目前10%(或現在應該是15%)的全面關稅,與4月以來實施的關稅政策相比,是更好還是更差呢?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Great question. I mean our seafood customers are very opportunistic, I would say, in when they order and the tariffs drive that, the ocean rates drive that, the sales prices here in the US drive that. And we'll see what happens with the Supreme Court hearing. Obviously, it's being challenged multiple ways. I think the bear or the bull case there is that tariffs could be lowered on China and Brazil, which could be meaningfully increasing trading partners with us given where they've sat in the last couple of years and the tariff rates they've been experiencing.

    是的。問得好。我的意思是,我們的海鮮客戶非常善於把握機會,他們會根據關稅、海運價格以及美國本土的銷售價格來決定何時下單。接下來,我們將拭​​目以待最高法院的聽證會結果。顯然,它正受到多方面的質疑。我認為利空或利好因素在於,對中國和巴西的關稅可能會降低,考慮到它們過去幾年的處境和所經歷的關稅稅率,這可能會顯著增加我們的貿易夥伴。

  • But it's just really hard it's really hard to know as all these are still being challenged in the state and federal courts. I think we're if we look at import/export, we're in if you look at multiple years of both the import and export side, we are at a historic low right now, and that's hurting us. It hurt us in the fourth quarter. We expect to hurt us in the first quarter. But we would expect that to normalize at some point, and that could be a meaningful upside to our business as so much of our real estate is in high-value, hard-to-replace port markets around the world.

    但這真的很難說,因為所有這些案件仍在州法院和聯邦法院受到質疑。我認為,如果我們看一下進出口情況,如果看一下多年的進出口數據,我們現在正處於歷史低位,這對我們造成了損害。這在第四節給我們造成了很大的麻煩。我們預計第一節會為我們帶來損失。但我們預計這種情況會在某個時候恢復正常,這對我們的業務來說可能是一個重要的利好,因為我們的許多房地產都位於世界各地高價值、難以替代的港口市場。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Omotayo Okusanya, Deutsche Bank.

    Omotayo Okusanya,德意志銀行。

  • Omotayo Okusanya - Analyst

    Omotayo Okusanya - Analyst

  • The $10 million of savings that was discussed, just wanted to kind of get some clarification around that. Is that mostly G&A type expenses? Is it more of a focus on kind of cost of operations in terms of labor and power? And also, hello.

    之前討論過的節省 1000 萬美元的問題,我想就此澄清一下。這主要是管理費用嗎?是否更著重於勞動力和電力方面的營運成本?還有,你好。

  • Robb LeMasters - Chief Financial Officer

    Robb LeMasters - Chief Financial Officer

  • Go ahead, Omotayo. We can hear you.

    請繼續,奧莫塔約。我們能聽到你的聲音。

  • Omotayo Okusanya - Analyst

    Omotayo Okusanya - Analyst

  • Okay. Perfect. And I also want to kind of get a sense of in terms of timing as well, I think you kind of mentioned half of it kind of coming on in '26, but how do we kind of think of beyond 2026?

    好的。完美的。我還想了解一下時間安排方面的情況,我想你提到其中一半會在 2026 年實現,但是我們該如何看待 2026 年之後的事情呢?

  • Robb LeMasters - Chief Financial Officer

    Robb LeMasters - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks for the question. Yes. So the $50 million of annualized savings that we hope to essentially get our hands around during 2026 to see the full impact of that in 2027 is both an admin thing as well as indirect, if you will. We are seeing opportunities at the indirect side at the sites. These are exercises that we've frankly been looking at for a while. We've been growing quite rapidly as a company. I came into the middle of an exercise that was being done to really look across the company and say, where can we sort of centralize, where can we optimize, where we bring some productivity? Are there overlapping functions that are frankly happening at the sites versus an admin.

    是的。謝謝你的提問。是的。因此,我們希望在 2026 年實現的 5,000 萬美元年度節省,並在 2027 年看到其全部影響,這既是行政方面的問題,也是間接方面的問題。我們看到了這些站點間接方面的機會。坦白說,我們已經研究這些練習一段時間了。我們公司發展速度非常快。我加入的時候,公司正在進行一項工作,目的是全面檢視公司,看看哪些方面可以集中管理,哪些方面可以優化,哪些方面可以提高生產力。網站上和管理員之間是否有功能重疊的情況?

  • We're also looking to deploy different technologies and AI and just frankly, figure out how to make do more with less. And so these are never easy decisions. So the timing of how we actually see that playing out in 2026, we're roughly think about half of that, but we'll see how the year goes, and we need to progress through all those initiatives. But again, it's about $50 million. Just to touch on how the site level expenditures happen versus the admin. We talked about that 100 basis points.

    我們也正在尋求部署不同的技術和人工智慧,坦白說,就是想辦法用更少的資源做更多的事情。所以,這些決定從來都不容易。所以,至於我們預計到 2026 年這些計劃將如何實現,我們大致認為能實現一半,但我們會看看這一年的情況如何,我們需要推進所有這些計劃。但再說一遍,這大約是 5000 萬美元。簡單說明一下網站層面的支出與管理層面的支出是如何發生的。我們討論過那100個基點。

  • So we went out to the sites and at corporate and sort of tried to do an inventory, and we saw some opportunity at the sites to essentially bring some of those costs in. We would have optimized them anyways, frankly, at the sites. And so as we combine those and actually bring those into corporate, we're sort of saying that, that's going to be a net impact.

    因此,我們前往各個工地和公司總部,嘗試進行一次盤點,我們發現了一些機會,可以將部分成本控制在內。坦白說,即便沒有這些優化措施,我們也會直接在網站上進行最佳化。因此,當我們把這些結合起來,並真正將它們引入公司時,我們實際上是在說,這將產生淨影響。

  • If we had not sort of brought that into corporate, that would have been a net impact of about 100 basis points. I wouldn't be surprised if we actually figure out how to optimize that even more and bring that at a lower impact, if you will on a pro forma basis to something like 75 basis points, but that gives you a sense for both the $50 million as well as how we see that playing in admin.

    如果我們沒有把這些因素引入公司層面,那將會產生約 100 個基點的淨影響。如果我真的能找到進一步優化它的方法,並以更低的影響將其降低到大約 75 個基點,我不會感到驚訝。但這可以讓你了解 5000 萬美元的意義,以及我們是如何看待它在行政管理中的作用的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Ki Bin Kim, Head of Investor Relations, for closing remarks.

    目前沒有其他問題了。現在我將把電話轉回給投資人關係主管金基彬,請他作總結發言。

  • Ki Bin Kim - Head of Investor Relations

    Ki Bin Kim - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, everyone, for joining the fourth quarter conference call. Have a good week, and we're around if you have any questions.

    感謝各位參加第四季電話會議。祝您一週愉快,如有任何疑問,歡迎隨時與我們聯繫。

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, everybody.

    謝謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝各位的出席。您現在可以斷開連線了。