Lineage Inc (LINE) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Desiree, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Lineage third quarter 2021 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

    女士們、先生們,感謝你們的耐心等待。我叫黛西蕾,今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。在此,我謹代表 Lineage 歡迎各位參加 2021 年第三季財報電話會議。(操作說明)

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Ki Bin Kim, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin.

    現在我將把會議交給投資者關係主管金基彬先生。你可以開始了。

  • Ki Bin Kim - Head of Investor Relations

    Ki Bin Kim - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, operator. Welcome to the Lineage discussion of its third quarter 2021 financial results. Joining me today are Greg Lehmkuhl, Lineage's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Rob Crisci, Lineage's Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings presentation, which includes supplemental financial information, can be found on our Investor Relations website at ir.onelineage.com. Following management's prepared remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions.

    謝謝接線生。歡迎來到 Lineage 對 2021 年第三季財務表現的討論。今天與我一同出席的有 Lineage 的總裁兼執行長 Greg Lehmkuhl,以及 Lineage 的財務長 Rob Crisci。我們的獲利報告(包括補充財務資訊)可在投資者關係網站ir.onelineage.com上找到。管理層發言結束後,我們將樂意回答您的問題。

  • Turning to slide 2, before we begin, I would like to remind everybody that our comments today will include forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, as described in our filings with the SEC. These risks could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments.

    翻到第二張投影片,在開始之前,我想提醒大家,我們今天的發言將包含聯邦證券法規定的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明有許多風險和不確定性,詳情請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。這些風險可能導致我們的實際結果與我們在評論中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。

  • Forward-looking statements in the earnings release that we issued today, along with the comments on this call, are made only as of today and will not be updated as actual events unfold.

    我們今天發布的獲利報告中的前瞻性陳述,以及本次電話會議中的評論,僅代表截至今日的觀點,不會隨著實際情況的發展而更新。

  • In addition, reference will be made to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information regarding our use of these measures and a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures can be found in the press release that was issued this morning. Unless otherwise noted, reported figures are rounded, and comparisons of the third quarter 2025 are to those of third quarter 2024.

    此外,也將提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關我們使用這些措施的資訊以及非GAAP措施與GAAP措施的調節表,請參閱今天早上發布的新聞稿。除非另有說明,報告的數字均已四捨五入,2025 年第三季的比較是與 2024 年第三季的比較。

  • Now I'd like to turn the call over to Greg.

    現在我想把電話交給格雷格。

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good morning, everyone. Thank you, Ki Bin, and welcome to the Lineage family. We're thrilled to have you. As many of you know, Ki Bin joined us from a distinctive career at Truist, bringing 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, most recently as a leading sell-side analyst. He's now two weeks into his new role, and we are already feeling his positive impact.

    各位早安。謝謝 Ki Bin,歡迎加入 Lineage 大家庭。我們非常高興你能來。正如你們許多人所知,Ki Bin 加入我們之前在 Truist 擁有卓越的職業生涯,在房地產行業擁有 20 年的經驗,最近擔任首席賣方分析師。他上任兩週以來,我們已經感受到了他的正面影響。

  • Let me start by walking you through our agenda for this morning. First, I'll recap our third quarter performance, which came in slightly ahead of our expectations. Then we will review occupancy and price, followed by our latest view of supply and demand for our industry. We know this is an important topic that many of you are interested in.

    首先,讓我為大家介紹一下今天早上的議程。首先,我將回顧我們第三季的業績,該業績略高於我們的預期。接下來,我們將回顧入住率和價格,然後介紹我們對行業供需的最新看法。我們知道這是一個很多人都感興趣的重要主題。

  • Following my remarks, I will turn it over to Rob Crisci, who will walk through the details of segment performance capital structure and our updated guidance. I'll then return to share closing comments before we open up the line for your questions.

    我發言結束後,將把發言權交給羅伯·克里斯奇,他將詳細介紹分部業績資本結構和我們更新後的業績指引。然後我會再回來作總結發言,之後我們會開放提問環節。

  • Turning to our quarterly performance on slide 4. Total revenue increased by 3% and adjusted EBITDA increased 2% to $341 million, which is a quarterly record for the company. Total AFFO grew 6% year-over-year, and we delivered AFFO per share of $0.85, which declined 6% year-over-year. As a reminder, our IPO occurred in the third quarter of last year, which impacts the comparability of these periods.

    接下來請看投影片 4 的季度業績。總營收成長 3%,調整後 EBITDA 成長 2% 至 3.41 億美元,創下公司季紀錄。調整後營運資金總額年增 6%,每股調整後營運資金為 0.85 美元,年減 6%。需要提醒的是,我們的IPO是在去年第三季進行的,這會影響這些時期的可比較性。

  • Looking at our business segments, global warehousing performed in line with expectations, consistent with the outlook we shared on last quarter's call. Same-store physical occupancy improved sequentially by 50 basis points to 75%, and we anticipate further occupancy gains in the fourth quarter, consistent with the muted seasonal pattern we discussed last quarter.

    從我們的業務部門來看,全球倉儲業務表現符合預期,與我們在上個季度電話會議上分享的展望一致。同店實體店入住率環比提高了 50 個基點,達到 75%,我們預計第四季度入住率將進一步提高,這與我們上個季度討論的較為溫和的季節性模式一致。

  • Same-store NOI increased sequentially to $351 million from $340 million, although it declined 3.6% year-over-year. Same warehouse storage revenue per physical occupied pallet remained stable as expected, growing at 1%. Our Global integrated solutions business saw a year-over-year NOI growth of 16%, led by our US transportation and direct-to-consumer businesses.

    同店淨營業收入較上季成長至 3.51 億美元,從 3.4 億美元增至 3.51 億美元,但年減 3.6%。如預期,每個實際佔用托盤的同店儲存收入保持穩定,成長了 1%。我們的全球綜合解決方案業務實現了同比增長 16% 的淨營業收入增長,這主要得益於我們在美國運輸和直接面向消費者的業務。

  • In the quarter, we invested $127 million of growth capital, primarily in our development projects. We're pleased with the continued progress on these projects. As a reminder, we have 25 facilities that are in process or ramping. We expect these assets to deliver $167 million of incremental EBITDA, once stabilized.

    本季度,我們投入了 1.27 億美元的成長資本,主要用於我們的開發項目。我們對這些項目取得的持續進展感到滿意。再次提醒,我們有 25 個設施正在建造或正在擴建中。我們預計這些資產一旦穩定下來,將帶來 1.67 億美元的額外 EBITDA。

  • In Q3, we delivered in-line same-store NOI and exceeded our adjusted EBITDA and AFFO per share guidance. However, we expect a lower fourth quarter than previously anticipated and are, therefore, moving to the lower end of our full-year guidance range for both EBITDA and AFFO per share.

    第三季度,我們實現了符合預期的同店淨營業收入,並超越了調整後每股 EBITDA 和 AFFO 的預期。然而,我們預計第四季度業績將低於先前的預期,因此,我們將全年每股 EBITDA 和 AFFO 的業績指引範圍下限調整至較低水準。

  • This is largely driven by a $20 million decline in our outlook for same warehouse NOI due to two primary factors. First, tariff uncertainties impacting import, export container volumes, leading to softer year-end services revenue.

    這主要是由於兩個主要因素導致我們對同店淨營業收入預期下調了 2,000 萬美元。首先,關稅的不確定性影響了進出口貨櫃數量,導致年底服務收入疲軟。

  • Second, while our total occupancy outlook for the fourth quarter is unchanged versus our previous guidance, U.S. occupancy is slightly lower due to import, export volumes and less-than-expected US new business hitting in the quarter. This is being offset by higher occupancy outside the United States, where we are in lower margins.

    第二,雖然我們對第四季的總入住率預期與先前的預期持平,但由於進出口量以及本季美國新業務量低於預期,美國入住率略有下降。但這被美國以外地區較高的入住率所抵消,因為我們在這些地區的利潤率較低。

  • Despite these near-term headwinds, we remain focused on providing world-class service to our valued customers by leveraging our industry-leading network and cutting-edge technologies. I'm confident that we are well positioned to grow as the food industry normalizes, new capacity is absorbed and our LinOS labor management and energy efficiency initiatives accelerate.

    儘管近期面臨這些不利因素,我們仍將專注於利用我們行業領先的網路和尖端技術,為我們尊貴的客戶提供世界一流的服務。我相信,隨著食品業的正常化、新增產能的消化以及我們的 LinOS 勞動力管理和能源效率舉措的加速推進,我們已經做好了充分的準備,實現成長。

  • Moving to slide 5, as I mentioned, Q3 and Q4 total occupancy are in line with our prior forecast and pricing remains stable as expected. Note that we typically see a sequential decline in storage revenue per pallet in the fourth quarter due to normal seasonal mix changes. Additionally, we saw a sequential 180 bps increase in our minimum storage guarantees to 46.7 as our customers continue to want to secure space across our network.

    翻到第 5 張投影片,正如我之前提到的,第三季和第四季的總入住率與我們先前的預測一致,價格也如預期般保持穩定。請注意,由於正常的季節性產品組合變化,我們通常會在第四季度看到每個托盤的倉儲收入環比下降。此外,由於我們的客戶繼續希望在我們的網路上獲得儲存空間,我們的最低儲存保證也連續提高了 180 個基點,達到 46.7。

  • Turning to slide 6, we understand that our industry is a specialized part of the real estate landscape with limited publicly available data. Accordingly, we continue to collaborate with CBRE to provide insights into new supply growth for the cold storage industry. At this point, our analysis is focused on the U.S. where we have the most successful data and in certain markets, are seeing the most acute supply, demand imbalance.

    翻到第 6 張投影片,我們了解到,我們的產業是房地產領域中一個特殊的部分,公開可用的數據有限。因此,我們繼續與世邦魏理仕合作,為冷藏業的新增供應成長提供見解。目前,我們的分析重點是美國,因為我們在美國擁有最成功的數據,在某些市場,我們看到了最嚴重的供需失衡。

  • Let me quickly walk through this slide. The upper left-hand chart, labeled A, shows from 2021 through 2025, public refrigerated warehouse supply grew at approximately 14.5% on a square foot basis, which is weighing on occupancy and pricing in certain markets. Importantly, CBRE's outlook for new capacity in 2026 is down substantially from recent levels to 1.5%.

    讓我快速瀏覽一下這張投影片。左上角的圖表(標記為 A)顯示,從 2021 年到 2025 年,公共冷藏倉庫的供應量以平方英尺計算增長了約 14.5%,這給某些市場的入住率和價格帶來了壓力。值得注意的是,世邦魏理仕對 2026 年新增產能的預期已從近期水準大幅下調至 1.5%。

  • The upper right-hand chart, labeled B, is based on Nielsen and Circana data for fresh and frozen food volumes in both the retail and foodservice channels. The data shows demand for the food category stored in our network grew cumulatively by 5% during the 2021 through [2025] time period.

    右上角的圖表,標記為 B,是根據尼爾森和 Circana 的數據,統計了零售和餐飲服務管道的新鮮和冷凍食品銷售。數據顯示,2021 年至 2025 年期間,我們網路中儲存的食品類別的需求累計增加了 5%。

  • To be clear, in spite of continued pressure from tariffs, consumer price inflation and other headwinds, end-consumer demand for the products that flow through our network has been and continues to grow.

    需要明確的是,儘管面臨關稅、消費價格上漲和其他不利因素的持續壓力,但終端消費者對我們網路中流通的產品的需求一直在增長,並且還在繼續增長。

  • On the bottom left-hand of the slide, we bring these two concepts together to calculate estimated excess capacity of approximately 9.5% for the U.S. market over the last 4 years. Despite this nearly 10% imbalance, our 2025 total estimated average physical occupancy is 75%, down only 3 points from 78% in 2021. We are using our network size and the strength of our operations to perform relatively well in a very challenging environment.

    在投影片的左下角,我們將這兩個概念結合起來,計算出過去 4 年美國市場預計過剩產能約為 9.5%。儘管存在近 10% 的不平衡,但我們預計 2025 年的平均實際入住率將達到 75%,僅比 2021 年的 78% 下降 3 個百分點。我們運用自身的網路規模和營運實力,在極具挑戰性的環境中取得了相對不錯的成績。

  • Looking forward, CBRE is expecting less new supply, which we believe is logical, as further speculative development is not supported by current industry dynamics.

    展望未來,世邦魏理仕預計新增供應量將減少,我們認為這是合乎邏輯的,因為目前的產業動態不支援進一步的投機性開發。

  • Before handing it over to our CFO, Rob Crisci, most of you are aware that he announced his retirement in June and we'll be handing over the rents to our new CFO on Monday. I just want to take this opportunity to sincerely thank Rob for his numerous contributions to Lineage over the last few years, helping to lead us through the IPO process with a lot of passion in building an excellent finance team here at Lineage.

    在將這項業務移交給我們的財務長羅伯克里斯奇之前,你們大多數人都知道他已於 6 月宣布退休,我們將於週一將租金業務移交給我們的新財務長。我謹藉此機會真誠地感謝 Rob 在過去幾年為 Lineage 做出的諸多貢獻,他滿懷熱情地帶領我們完成了 IPO 流程,並在 Lineage 建立了一支優秀的財務團隊。

  • It's been a pleasure getting to know you, both personally and professionally. Also cannot thank you enough for all your help in making this a smooth transition. I look forward to getting together in Sarasota and wish you the very best in retirement.

    很高興能有機會認識你,無論是在個人層面還是職業層面。另外,我非常感謝您為使過渡過程順利進行所提供的所有幫助。我期待在薩拉索塔與您相聚,並祝您退休生活一切順利。

  • Robb LeMasters, our incoming CFO, what we call BB because he spells his first staying with two Bs, has been with us in an unofficial capacity over the last few weeks shadowing our earnings process. He has an exceptional background with two decades of finance and buy-side investing experience, including a very successful run as a public company CFO at BWX Technologies.

    我們即將上任的財務長 Robb LeMasters,我們稱他為 BB,因為他把第一個職位拼寫成了兩個 B,在過去的幾周里,他以非正式身份和我們在一起,觀察我們的盈利過程。他擁有卓越的背景,二十年來一直從事金融和買方投資工作,其中包括在 BWX Technologies 擔任上市公司財務長期間取得的非常成功的業績。

  • He has a lot of great experience managing complex financial operations at asset-intensive businesses. Robb has already been out to visit a bunch of our sites, and I know he is very excited to officially get started next week. Welcome, Robb. We're excited to work with you and expect great things.

    他在管理資產密集型企業的複雜財務營運方面擁有豐富的經驗。羅布已經去考察過我們的一些工地,我知道他非常期待下周正式開始工作。歡迎你,羅伯。我們很高興能與您合作,並期待豐碩成果。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Rob Crisci.

    接下來,我將把麥克風交給羅布·克里斯奇。

  • Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer

    Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. I greatly appreciate the kind words. My colleagues at Lineage have also become great friends, which is a testament to the culture you, Kevin, Adam and the team have built here. Robb LeMasters is a great fit for Lineage, and I've really enjoyed getting to know him. The finance organization is an excellent hands. I'm here to help as needed my advisory role, but I doubt Robb will need much.

    謝謝你,格雷格,大家早安。非常感謝您的鼓勵和讚揚。我在 Lineage 的同事也都成了我的好朋友,證明了你、Kevin、Adam 和團隊在這裡建立的文化。Robb LeMasters 非常適合 Lineage,我很高興能認識他。財務部門管理得非常好。我會在需要時以顧問的身份提供幫助,但我懷疑羅布不需要太多幫助。

  • I'd also like to add, we are incredibly excited to add Ki Bin into the team. It's been great having you as part of our process the last couple of weeks.

    我還要補充一點,我們很高興基彬加入團隊。過去幾週,你的參與對我們非常重要。

  • Turning to our global warehousing segment, total revenue grew 4% and total NOI grew slightly to $384 million, in line with our expectations. Same warehouse NOI declined 3.6%. We continue to focus on operating efficiency. And to that end, we saw our same warehouse cost of operations decline 1%. We will dive deeper into this on the next slide.

    再來看我們的全球倉儲業務,總收入成長了 4%,總淨營業收入略微成長至 3.84 億美元,符合我們的預期。同店營業淨收入下降3.6%。我們將繼續專注於提高營運效率。因此,我們的倉庫營運成本下降了 1%。我們將在下一張投影片中深入探討這個問題。

  • Looking to the fourth quarter, we now expect the same warehouse NOI decline of the 3% to 6%, a reduction of approximately $20 million at the midpoint versus our prior implied Q4 outlook. Greg already outlined the main drivers behind this reduction, including the impact of tariffs on the import and export activity. We've been monitoring the tariff situation closely and are cautiously optimistic about some of the recently announced trade agreements, which should benefit both our customers and Lineage.

    展望第四季度,我們現在預計倉庫淨營業收入將下降 3% 至 6%,與我們先前對第四季的預期相比,中位數將減少約 2,000 萬美元。格雷格已經概述了造成這一下降的主要原因,包括關稅對進出口活動的影響。我們一直在密切關注關稅情勢,並對最近宣布的一些貿易協定持謹慎樂觀態度,這些協定應該會讓我們的客戶和 Lineage 都受益。

  • We continue to fight through the competitive environment, as Greg discussed earlier. We feel good about the positive trend in occupancy and the return to more normal seasonality this year, albeit somewhat muted loss.

    正如格雷格之前所說,我們將繼續在競爭激烈的環境中奮力拼搏。我們對入住率的正面趨勢以及今年季節性活動的恢復感到滿意,儘管損失有所緩和。

  • Turning to Slide 8, diving deeper into warehouse efficiency. As we all know, the current inflationary environment has driven labor cost increase. As a reminder, labor is, by far, our largest controllable cost of $1.5 billion per year. On a same warehouse basis, we've been able to hold labor costs flat over the last couple of years.

    接下來請看第 8 張投影片,深入探討倉庫效率。眾所周知,當前的通膨環境推高了勞動成本。需要提醒的是,勞動成本是我們最大的可控成本,每年高達 15 億美元。在現有倉庫規模的基礎上,過去幾年我們一直能夠維持勞動成本不變。

  • This year, throughput has declined low single digits, making the progress our operations team has made on labor per throughput pallet even more impressive. You can see this on the right-hand chart. We remain hyper focused on lowering costs and increasing warehouse efficiency. This benefits us both in the short term and will drive strong operating leverage by the incremental growth.

    今年,吞吐量出現了個位數的下降,這使得我們營運團隊在每托盤吞吐量的人工成本方面取得的進展更加令人印象深刻。您可以在右側圖表中看到這一點。我們始終高度專注於降低成本和提高倉庫效率。這在短期內對我們雙方都有利,透過增量成長將推動強勁的營運槓桿。

  • Next slide. Shifting to Slide 9 and covering our global integrated solutions segment, revenue was flat and NOI grew 16% to $65 million. Our NOI margin was up 250 basis points to 17.9%. We're continuing to see strong momentum in our US transportation and direct-to-consumer businesses due to the value these integrated solutions provide to our customers.

    下一張投影片。切換到第 9 張投影片,介紹我們的全球整合解決方案部門,營收持平,淨營業收入成長 16% 至 6,500 萬美元。我們的營業淨收入利潤率上升了 250 個基點,達到 17.9%。由於這些綜合解決方案為我們的客戶帶來了價值,我們在美國的運輸和直接面向消費者的業務繼續保持強勁的成長勢頭。

  • For the fourth quarter, we expect the strong momentum to continue with 10% to 15% growth. Notably, we benefited in the third quarter for approximately $4 million of NOI that was previously expected for the fourth quarter. We now see full-year NOI growth of 8% to 10% versus prior range of 8% to 12%. The slight reduction at the midpoint is due to less trade services also associated with lower import export activity. Really great year overall and solid execution by Greg, Brian and the global GIS team.

    我們預計第四季強勁的成長勢頭將持續,成長率將達到 10% 至 15%。值得注意的是,我們在第三季獲得了約 400 萬美元的淨營業收入,而這原本預計要到第四季才能實現。我們現在預計全年淨營業收入將成長8%至10%,而先前的預期範圍為8%至12%。中點略有下降是由於貿易服務減少,這也與進出口活動減少有關。整體來說,今年是非常出色的一年,Greg、Brian 和全球 GIS 團隊的執行非常出色。

  • Turning to Slide 10, we ended the quarter with total net debt of $7.55 billion. Total liquidity at the end of the quarter stood at $1.3 billion, including cash and revolving credit facility capacity. Our leverage ratio defined as net debt to adjusted EBITDA, was 5.8 times at the end of the quarter. We remain highly disciplined on future capital deployment.

    翻到第 10 張投影片,本季末我們的淨債務總額為 75.5 億美元。截至季末,公司總流動資金為 13 億美元,包括現金和循環信貸額度。本季末,我們的槓桿率(定義為淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率)為 5.8 倍。我們將在未來的資本部署方面保持高度自律。

  • We continue to actively manage our interest rate exposure in light of our existing SOFR hedges that expire at year-end. We have been opportunistically executing new hedges and working to further optimize our investment-grade balance sheet.

    鑑於我們現有的SOFR對沖合約將於年底到期,我們將繼續積極管理我們的利率風險敞口。我們一直在抓住機會進行新的對沖操作,並努力進一步優化我們的投資等級資產負債表。

  • Given these year-end expirations, we are providing a very early look for 2026 forecasted interest expense to help with your modeling. At this time, we see approximately $340 million to $360 million of total interest expense in 2026, which is approximately $80 million higher than this year.

    鑑於這些年末到期事項,我們提前提供 2026 年預測利息支出,以幫助您進行建模。目前,我們預計 2026 年的總利息支出約為 3.4 億美元至 3.6 億美元,比今年高出約 8,000 萬美元。

  • A little more than half of the increase is due to the expiring hedges, and the remainder is due to our recent capital deployment, which we anticipate will drive attractive risk-adjusted returns and further support for customer-driven growth.

    成長的一半多一點是由於對沖合約到期,其餘部分是由於我們最近的資本部署,我們預計這將帶來有吸引力的風險調整後收益,並進一步支持客戶驅動型成長。

  • Turning to the guidance slide. We are initiating Q4 with EBITDA of $319 million to $334 million, an AFFO per share of $0.68 to $0.78. For the full year, EBITDA is $1,290 million to $1,305 million and AFFO per share at $3.20 to $3.30. In short, we are going to the lower end of our of previous ranges on adjusted EBITDA and AFFO per share. We see total and same warehouse NOI about $20 million lower than previous guidance for the reasons mentioned earlier.

    切換到指導幻燈片。我們預計第四季度 EBITDA 為 3.19 億美元至 3.34 億美元,調整後營運資金 (AFFO) 為每股 0.68 美元至 0.78 美元。全年 EBITDA 預計為 12.9 億美元至 13.05 億美元,調整後營運資金 (AFFO) 為每股 3.20 美元至 3.30 美元。簡而言之,我們調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後營運資金 (AFFO) 預計均處於先前預期範圍的下限。由於前面提到的原因,我們預期總倉庫淨營業收入和同店淨營業收入將比先前的預期減少約 2,000 萬美元。

  • With that, I'll turn it back over to Greg to wrap up before opening up to your questions.

    接下來,我將把發言權交還給格雷格,讓他做個總結,然後再回答大家的問題。

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Rob has walked you through our updated guidance, and I want to reaffirm that while we are operating in a challenging environment, we believe Lineage remains positioned to win. As outlined in detail on our prior earnings call, we're focused on driving competitive differentiation across three key areas: delivering customer success, leveraging our network effects and enhancing warehouse productivity.

    Rob 已經向大家詳細介紹了我們更新後的指導方針,我想再次強調,儘管我們身處充滿挑戰的環境中,但我們相信 Lineage 仍然能夠取得成功。正如我們在先前的財報電話會議上詳細闡述的那樣,我們專注於在三個關鍵領域實現競爭差異化:實現客戶成功、利用我們的網路效應和提高倉庫生產力。

  • Before summarizing and turning it over for your questions, I'd like to provide a quick update on LinOS, our proprietary warehouse execution system. As of today, we've deployed the platform in seven conventional sites. And the results have exceeded our expectations. We're seeing double-digit productivity improvements in key metrics like units per hour, translating to higher output and lower unit costs.

    在總結並交由各位提問之前,我想先快速介紹一下我們專有的倉庫執行系統 LinOS。截至目前,我們已在七個傳統站點部署了該平台。結果超出了我們的預期。我們看到關鍵指標(如每小時產量)的生產力提高了兩位數,這意味著更高的產量和更低的單位成本。

  • We expect to complete 10 deployments by year-end, setting the stage for an accelerated rollout in 2026. We look forward to sharing more details at NAREIT, where we'll be hosting an in-person and webcast-ed investor forum on Monday afternoon to separate. The presentation will focus on operational excellence and our LinOS technology.

    我們預計到年底將完成 10 次部署,為 2026 年加速推廣奠定基礎。我們期待在 NAREIT 大會上分享更多細節,屆時我們將於週一下午舉辦一場現場和網路直播的投資者論壇,以進行區分。本次演講將重點介紹卓越營運和我們的 LinOS 技術。

  • Turning to slide 13 and in summary, it's obviously been a very bumpy road since our IPO last July for our external investors and for our Lineage team, who are also owners of our company. But when I take a step back and look at the company, I see the largest, best positioned player in a mission-critical business where underlying consumer demand has been growing, even in the face of some of the worst food inflation in decades.

    翻到第 13 張投影片,總而言之,自從去年 7 月我們進行 IPO 以來,對於我們的外部投資者和我們 Lineage 團隊(他們也是我們公司的所有者)來說,這顯然是一條非常坎坷的道路。但當我退後一步審視這家公司時,我看到的是一家規模最大、地位最穩固的關鍵業務參與者,即使在面臨幾十年來最嚴重的食品通膨的情況下,潛在的消費者需求仍在增長。

  • This is a great company in a resilient long-term industry that is clearly facing short-term challenges due to excess supply and macro headwinds like tariffs. The cash flow generation of our company remains strong, our trading valuation is currently about half of the replacement cost of our assets, and we believe we have an unmatched portfolio of buildings in critical markets for our customers.

    這是一家很棒的公司,它身處在一個具有韌性的長期產業,但由於供應過剩和關稅等宏觀不利因素,顯然正面臨短期挑戰。我們公司的現金流依然強勁,目前的交易估值約為資產重置成本的一半,我們相信我們在關鍵市場擁有無可比擬的建築物組合,能夠為我們的客戶提供服務。

  • While Q4 will be challenged due to near-term headwinds, there are green shoots of optimism, including less new supply coming online, growing demand and potential global trade policy resolution. We grew this business successfully for 15 years leading up to the IPO. And while we can't predict the moment of inflection, we believe in this industry's fundamentals and that stability is on the horizon.

    儘管第四季將因短期不利因素而面臨挑戰,但仍有一些樂觀的跡象,包括新增供應減少、需求成長以及全球貿易政策可能得到解決。在上市前的15年裡,我們成功地發展了這項業務。雖然我們無法預測轉折點何時到來,但我們相信這個行業的基本面,並相信穩定即將到來。

  • In the meantime, we will continue to focus on the areas of our business that are under our control, becoming a leaner, smarter company, investing in our people, processes and technology. And when the industry does inflect, we will come out stronger than ever. Finally, I want to thank our global team members for their dedication and commitment to our customers.

    同時,我們將繼續專注於我們可控的業務領域,並努力成為一家更精簡、更聰明的公司,投資我們的員工、流程和技術。當行業發生轉變時,我們將比以往任何時候都更加強大。最後,我要感謝我們全球團隊成員對客戶的奉獻和承諾。

  • Operator, I'd like to open it up for questions now.

    接線員,現在我想開放提問環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Caitlin Burrows, Goldman Sachs.

    Caitlin Burrows,高盛集團。

  • Caitlin Burrows - Analyst

    Caitlin Burrows - Analyst

  • I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about that expected lower US new business in 4Q. I guess, how important is new business versus existing business throughout the year and in 4Q specifically? And how has new business fared to date? And are you suggesting some change for 4Q? Or is it more of the same?

    我想請您再詳細談談預計第四季美國新業務量將下降的問題。我想問的是,全年以及第四季度,新業務與現有業務哪個更重要?那麼,新業務迄今進展如何?您是否建議在第四季做出一些改變?還是老樣子?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks for your question. So let me just provide a little more color on the lower -- on both the tariff and the new business front. So I think we're all sick of hearing about tariffs at this point, but we're definitely seeing the tariff uncertainty impact import export, volumes more than we did earlier this year and certainly more than when we were guiding last quarter.

    謝謝你的提問。那麼,讓我再詳細闡述一下下層的情況──包括關稅和新業務方面。所以我想我們現在都聽膩了關稅問題,但我們確實看到關稅的不確定性對進出口量的影響比今年早些時候更大,也比我們上個季度預測時的影響更大。

  • So this has been specifically impactful in our West US business unit, where the ocean import, export container volumes are down about 20% from where they were trending most of the year through July and back when we gave guidance.

    因此,這對我們美國西部業務部門的影響尤其顯著,該部門的海運進出口貨櫃量比今年大部分時間(截至 7 月)以及我們發布業績指引時的趨勢下降了約 20%。

  • And this is lucrative business with substantial accessorial revenue like services for customs documentation, bonded fees, [glass freezing].

    這是一項利潤豐厚的業務,也能帶來可觀的附加收入,例如海關文件服務費、保稅費等。[玻璃結凍]

  • For example, in our seafood category, many customers ordered back in the summer and are bleeding down their inventory right now awaiting tariff resolution. And they're telling us that there's -- while there's a possibility they'll reorder by year-end, it's more likely going to be after the first of the year, and that's what our guidance is based on.

    例如,在我們海鮮類別中,許多客戶在夏季下了訂單,現在正在消耗庫存,等待關稅問題解決。他們告訴我們,雖然有可能在年底前重新下單,但更有可能是在新年之後,而我們的指導意見正是基於此。

  • We're also forecasting that this impact of container volume, not only it's warehousing same-store NOI, but also it's GIS in the fourth quarter as we provide a lot of drayage around the ports for our customers in our GIS segment.

    我們也預測,貨櫃吞吐量的影響不僅體現在倉儲同店淨營業收入上,也體現在第四季度的GIS業務上,因為我們為GIS部門的客戶提供了大量的港口周邊短程運輸服務。

  • To your question more specifically on the new business side, competition in certain US markets is impacting new business. And while we continue to expect to have a record new business year overall and we continue to have a very strong pipeline, we're just forecasting a little bit less than we were previously guiding to hit in the fourth quarter.

    更具體地說,關於您提出的新業務方面的問題,美國某些市場的競爭正在影響新業務。儘管我們仍然預計今年整體新業務將創歷史新高,並且我們的業務儲備也非常強勁,但我們對第四季度業績的預測略低於先前的預期。

  • And obviously, the contribution margin on new business is very high, given the fixed cost nature of our business. And therefore, a relatively small change in new business revenue has an outsized impact on NOI. And that happens the other way when we land a lot of new business, as we get the operating -- the positive operating leverage.

    顯然,考慮到我們業務的固定成本性質,新業務的貢獻毛利非常高。因此,新業務收入的相對較小變化會對營業淨收入產生巨大的影響。反過來,當我們獲得大量新業務時,就會出現這種情況,因為我們會獲得營運槓桿——積極的營運槓桿。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

    瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

  • Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

    Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

  • Greg, can you provide an update on the pricing strategy during the quarter, just given some of the demand headwinds that you talked about and then also the supplies? So I'm just trying to get an update on how you've approached pricing as a lever to maintain occupancy.

    Greg,鑑於你剛才提到的需求逆風以及供應方面的問題,你能否介紹一下本季的定價策略?所以我想了解一下你們是如何運用定價策略來維持入住率的。

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. We've been -- so first of all, I want to start by saying, in Q2 we provided, for the first time, a multiyear revenue per pallet chart, both on services and rent storage and blast.

    是的。首先,我想說的是,在第二季度,我們首次提供了多年每托盤收入圖表,包括服務和租賃倉儲以及爆破服務。

  • And I think it's really important that I reinforce this every quarter that the metric that we all look at externally is going to be volatile quarter-to-quarter, driven by a number of factors.

    我認為非常重要的一點是,我每季都要強調,我們所有人都在關注的外部指標會因多種因素而出現季度波動。

  • Rate is certainly a piece of it, but volume guarantees, inventory turns, [blast] freezing rising volumes, commodity mix, exchange rate seasonality, all play into that metric, and it caused a little volatility in the short term. That's why we provide that multiyear view to show that our pricing is making progress over time.

    利率當然是其中的一部分,但銷售保證、庫存週轉率、銷售激增導致的凍結、商品組合、匯率季節性等因素都會影響此指標,並在短期內造成一些波動。這就是為什麼我們提供多年期數據,以表明我們的定價策略隨著時間的推移而不斷進步。

  • And so in the quarter, there was no change to our pricing strategy. We will achieve -- in some challenged markets, we did have to talk about volume versus price as the year progressed. But overall, we'll see a net price increase between 1% and 2% this year.

    因此,本季我們的定價策略沒有改變。我們將取得成果——在一些充滿挑戰的市場中,隨著時間的推移,我們確實不得不討論銷售與價格之間的關係。但總體而言,今年淨價格漲幅將在 1% 到 2% 之間。

  • And so we -- nothing changed in the quarter. We're not -- one of our core strategies is not to trade volume for price. We're talking to each customer uniquely. And again, in aggregate, we saw net price increases this year.

    所以,這個季度沒有任何變化。我們不是-我們的核心策略之一就是不以成交量換取價格。我們與每位客戶進行個人化溝通。再次強調,今年整體而言,我們看到淨價格上漲。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

    Steve Sakwa,Evercore ISI。

  • Steve Sakwa - Analyst

    Steve Sakwa - Analyst

  • Greg, I appreciate the added color you provided on the excess capacity. And it's nice to see that you guys didn't take as big of a hit on occupancy. But given that there's still a lot of excess capacity, I guess, in the market overall and there's still some new supply to come on in '26, I guess just what are your expectations looking forward on that physical occupancy? And how is that excess capacity kind of being absorbed and priced in the marketplace against the existing stock?

    格雷格,感謝你對剩餘容量的補充說明。很高興看到你們的入住率沒有受到太大影響。但鑑於目前市場整體仍有大量過剩產能,而且2026年還有一些新的供應即將到來,那麼您對未來的實際入住率有何預期呢?那麼,這些過剩產能是如何在市場上被吸收,並與現有庫存進行定價的呢?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Great question. So at this point, the new supply is really just trickling in. You saw the CBRE forecast for next year is 1.5% new capacity. We think that will stay the same or go down over time as it just doesn't make sense to add more capacity speculatively in this market.

    是的。問得好。所以目前來看,新增供應真的只是涓涓細流。您已經看到世邦魏理仕對明年新增產能的預測是1.5%。我們認為這種情況會保持不變或隨著時間的推移而下降,因為在這個市場中投機性地增加產能是沒有意義的。

  • And so when we look at our -- this is really a US phenomenon, it's not really the same situation outside of the U.S. And some markets remain challenged, like I've talked about Jacksonville and Miami in prior calls. Chicago has had a lot of new capacity, and we're having to work through that new supply getting onboarded.

    所以當我們審視我們的市場時——這實際上是美國特有的現象,美國以外的情況並非如此。一些市場仍然面臨挑戰,就像我之前在電話會議中談到的傑克遜維爾和邁阿密一樣。芝加哥新增了許多產能,我們正在努力解決這些新增產能的投入使用問題。

  • But we are actually more optimistic about some key markets that have had new capacity delivered in the last couple of years, like New Jersey, Dallas and Houston, we basically absorbed that new capacity. We worked through our book of business. We've kind of fought the fight, and now we're building back inventories in those markets.

    但實際上,我們對過去幾年新增產能的一些關鍵市場,如新澤西州、達拉斯和休士頓,持更樂觀的態度,我們基本上已經吸收了這些新增產能。我們處理完了所有待辦事項。我們已經打贏了這場仗,現在正在這些市場重建庫存。

  • And so I think it's market-by-market. And once the supply gets delivered and we kind of have those discussions with our book of business in that market, we think it's kind of a reset and we can build up from there, and that's what we're seeing in the markets that I just discussed.

    所以我認為這要視具體市場而定。一旦供應到位,並且我們與該市場的業務部門進行討論後,我們認為這就像是重置,我們可以從那裡開始發展,而這正是我剛才提到的市場中正在發生的事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Craig Mailman, Citi.

    克雷格‧梅爾曼,花旗銀行。

  • Craig Mailman - Analyst

    Craig Mailman - Analyst

  • Just as we think about the third consecutive guidance cut we've had, I'm just kind of curious, if you guys are having this much trouble underwriting your own portfolio, like how do we get comfortable with yields on the capital you're deploying into development and potential acquisitions that we're not going to be a couple of hundred basis points kind of below pro forma here because looking at your schedule, you still have a lot to stabilize in terms of the portfolio? I think only about 15% kind of stabilized here.

    就在我們考慮連續第三次下調業績指引的時候,我很好奇,如果你們在評估自身投資組合時都遇到了這麼多困難,那麼我們如何才能對你們投入到開發和潛在收購中的資本的收益率感到放心呢?畢竟,根據你們的進度安排來看,你們的投資組合還有很多需要穩定的地方。我認為這裡只有大約 15% 的情況比較穩定。

  • And just a second one to sneak it in here. Just have you guys thought about -- is a REIT maybe the right structure for this company, given the fact that you guys are more of a 3PL than you are a real estate company and it might be beneficial for you to be able to retain capital and redeploy that? Just some thoughts there.

    再加一個,偷偷放進來。你們有沒有想過──鑑於你們更像是第三方物流公司而不是房地產公司,房地產投資信託基金(REIT)或許是適合貴公司的結構,能夠保留資本並重新部署這些資本可能對你們有利?一些想法而已。

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. So certainly, the last thing we want to be doing is sitting here lowering the fourth quarter. And the fact is our industry has been challenged and -- with the new supply and very, very hard to predict, given we talk to our 15,000 customers every month about them forecasting their volumes and what they're going to do. And it's very difficult for them to predict and you heard that from the producers in their quarterly releases.

    是的。所以,我們最不想看到的就是第四季業績下滑。事實上,我們的行業受到了挑戰,而且由於新的供應情況,很難預測,因為我們每個月都會與 15,000 名客戶討論他們預測銷售以及他們將採取的行動。他們很難預測,這一點你在製作人每季發布的報告中也聽到了。

  • So it's -- we're the recipient of that short-term volatility. Again, the underlying demand for our products is growing, not shrinking. And we think that's good for the long term as we absorb this new supply and get back to kind of equilibrium in the market. And as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we're not sure exactly when that is, but we feel very good about our positioning, about our technology, about all the things that we can control are going well.

    所以,我們成了這種短期波動的受害者。再次強調,我們產品的潛在需求正在成長,而不是減少。我們認為這有利於長遠發展,因為我們可以吸收這些新的供應,並將市場恢復到某種平衡狀態。正如我在準備好的演講稿中提到的,我們還不確定具體時間,但我們對我們的市場定位、技術以及所有我們能夠控制的事情都感到非常滿意,一切都進展順利。

  • On the new developments, I mean, we track this every quarter. It's one of my KPIs for by bonus every single year, and we performed well versus our underwrites for many years and continue to do

    關於新的進展,我的意思是,我們每季都會追蹤這方面的資訊。這是我每年獎金的關鍵績效指標之一,多年來我們一直表現出色,超過了承保標準,現在仍然如此。

  • so. Those developments are very -- are generally customer-led developments. Many of them have strict volume guarantees and revenue guarantees, and we're not out there building spec buildings where we don't have certainty that we're going to get the returns that our expecters expect.

    所以。這些發展非常——通常都是以客戶為主導的發展。許多公司都有嚴格的銷售保證和收入保證,我們不會去建造投機性建築,因為我們無法確定能否獲得客戶期望的回報。

  • And so is there pressure around are things uncertain? Absolutely. That's why we -- things performed pretty much exactly how we thought they would in the third quarter. And here, we are looking at the fourth quarter, and our customers are telling us their container volumes are going to be down 20% in our largest business unit.

    所以,是否有壓力?情況是否不明朗?絕對地。這就是為什麼我們——第三季的情況幾乎完全符合我們的預期。現在,讓我們來看第四季度,我們的客戶告訴我們,在我們最大的業務部門,他們的貨櫃吞吐量將下降 20%。

  • And that's the -- those are the type of things that we -- that are very, very difficult or impossible to predict. And all we can do is execute our plan, control our controllables, treat our customers great, treat our team members great and work through this challenging time.

    而這些事情,正是我們──非常非常難以預測或根本無法預測的事情。我們所能做的就是執行我們的計劃,控制我們可控的因素,善待我們的客戶,善待我們的團隊成員,並努力度過這段充滿挑戰的時期。

  • Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer

    Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. And I would say we do believe REIT is the right structure for us. We have an incredibly valuable real estate portfolio. We think the benefits outweigh the -- there really aren't very many negatives to being a REIT. So we're very, very happy to REIT.

    是的。而且我認為,我們確實相信 REIT 是適合我們的結構。我們擁有極具價值的房地產投資組合。我們認為收益大於弊端——成為房地產投資信託基金(REIT)的缺點真的不多。所以我們對 REIT 非常非常滿意。

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I mean we -- if you can choose to pay taxes or not, we're going to choose not.

    是的。我的意思是,如果可以選擇是否要繳稅,我們會選擇不繳稅。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ronald Kamdem, Morgan Stanley.

    羅納德‧卡姆登,摩根士丹利。

  • Ronald Kamdem - Analyst

    Ronald Kamdem - Analyst

  • Just a lot of really helpful breadcrumbs on 2026 with the interest guidance and so forth. I just -- going back to the question of excess capacity. I was just wondering if you could sort of think about the next 12 to 18, and in this sort of environment, what can you control? And what do you think sort of the pricing versus occupancy impact can be and so forth? So what have you sort of seen in this sort of environment?

    有很多關於 2026 年的非常有用的信息,包括利率指導等等。我只是──回到產能過剩的問題上。我只是想問,你能不能想想接下來的 12 到 18 個月,在這種環境下,你能控制什麼?那麼,您認為價格與入住率之間會造成哪些影響等等?那麼,在這種環境下,你都看到了什麼?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. So on the pricing side, looking forward, we are -- a lot of our volume guarantees, for example, got reset in '25 earlier this year in the first and second quarter after the big destocking from COVID that I talked about in the last several quarters.

    當然。因此,在定價方面,展望未來,例如,我們許多銷售保證在今年年初的第一季度和第二季度都進行了重置,這是由於我在過去幾個季度中談到的 COVID 疫情導致的大規模去庫存造成的。

  • And now we're kind of in a new -- we're kind of in a more stable point. We are having conversations with customers already about '26 pricing. Those conversations obviously haven't been wrapped yet. But despite the new supply we discussed, we were targeting inflationary-level increases, and we believe that we're going to be able to achieve net increases in the low single digits for '26.

    現在我們進入了一個新的階段——我們進入了一個更穩定的階段。我們已經開始與客戶討論 2026 年的定價問題了。顯然,這些對話還沒結束。但儘管我們討論了新的供應,我們的目標是實現通膨水準的成長,我們相信我們能夠在 2026 年實現個位數低水準的淨成長。

  • And we don't think we'll have to give up occupancy to achieve those low single-digit price increases. Our customers do understand that we have to pay our people more and there is inflation out there. And I don't -- we're not going to get 10%. But low single digit, we think is very achievable. Even now the supply.

    我們認為,為了實現個位數的低價漲幅,我們無需犧牲入住率。我們的客戶理解我們必須給員工加薪,而且現在通貨膨脹也很嚴重。而且我也不認為——我們不可能拿到 10%。但我們認為,達到個位數低點是完全可以實現的。即使現在供應依然充足。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Carroll, RBC.

    Michael Carroll,RBC。

  • Michael Carroll - Analyst

    Michael Carroll - Analyst

  • Greg, can you give us some color on how Lineage was able to push their guarantee contracts up a little bit this quarter? I mean, is it abnormal to do this in the third quarter? And is that the reason why economic occupancy was up bigger sequentially in 3Q versus fiscal occupancy?

    Greg,你能給我們詳細介紹一下Lineage是如何在本季度提高其擔保合約金額的嗎?我的意思是,在第三季這樣做正常嗎?這就是第三季經濟入住率較上季成長幅度大於財政入住率的原因嗎?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It was the reason. And the reason for the volume guarantee progress is some new customer-led developments include long-term contracts with higher volume guarantees than our average.

    這就是原因。銷售保證取得進展的原因是,一些新的客戶主導的發展包括簽訂長期合同,其中銷售保證高於我們的平均水平。

  • Also, our sales team, I said that -- I mentioned on the last question that our volume guarantees got reset at a lower level in the first and second quarter this year. We've kind of been through that pain, if you will. And now on new business, our sales team is doing a phenomenal job broadening the customer base that are utilizing volume guarantees.

    另外,關於我們的銷售團隊,我在上一個問題中提到過,今年第一季和第二季的銷售保證被重新設定在了較低的水平。我們某種程度上也經歷過那種痛苦。現在,在拓展新業務方面,我們的銷售團隊做得非常出色,他們正在擴大利用大量保證的客戶群。

  • So our new business, despite the challenges in certain parts of the US, we're seeing new business come in with higher volume guarantees than our average. And so those are the two impacts.

    因此,儘管美國某些地區面臨挑戰,但我們的新業務仍然獲得了比平均水平更高的銷售保證。所以,以上就是兩方面的影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

    Alexander Goldfarb,Piper Sandler。

  • Alexander Goldfarb - Analyst

    Alexander Goldfarb - Analyst

  • And first, Robb with the BB, welcome aboard. Rob with the single B. Congrats on retirement. And Ki Bin, welcome to the inside.

    首先,歡迎 Robb 和 BB 登船。羅布,只有一個B。恭喜你退休。奇彬,歡迎來到內部。

  • Greg, you mentioned that international is performing much better versus the U.S. Is it simply a matter of the excess supply, and that's really the difference? Or are there other things at work?

    格雷格,你提到國際市場的表現比美國市場好很多。這只是因為供應過剩,而這才是真正的差別嗎?或是有其他原因嗎?

  • I mean, there are always trade disputes from country-to-country. There are always geopolitical things, inflation tension, whatever happening overseas. So I'm just trying to isolate what the key difference is for why global is performing well versus the US, and I wonder if it's simply the supply or if there's other factors at work?

    我的意思是,國家之間總是存在著貿易爭端。總是會有地緣政治因素、通膨緊張局勢以及海外發生的各種事情。所以,我只是想找出全球市場表現優於美國市場的關鍵差異所在,我想知道這只是供應方面的原因,還是還有其他因素在起作用?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Alex, good question. So I don't want to overemphasize this. I mean the occupancy in the US is a little bit lower than we were forecasting back in -- after Q2, and Europe is a little bit higher. That's the difference.

    Alex,問得好。所以我不想過度強調這一點。我的意思是,美國的入住率比我們在第二季之後預測的要低一些,而歐洲的入住率則略高一些。這就是差別所在。

  • And the impacts are -- really are exactly what I laid out, Alex. And that's container volume, which is mostly seafood, which I think everyone knows we love that business. It's 13% of our book, we were trending at literally like our customers are telling us that we're seeing right now as the quarter progresses, a 20% reduction in import, export volume, and that's impactful.

    而其影響——確實和我描述的一模一樣,亞歷克斯。這是貨櫃體積,其中大部分是海鮮,我想大家都知道我們熱愛海鮮生意。這占我們帳面價值的 13%,正如我們的客戶告訴我們的那樣,隨著本季度的推進,我們目前的趨勢是進出口量下降了 20%,這影響很大。

  • And just more broadly, certainly in the US, in certain markets, like the one I mentioned -- the ones I mentioned earlier, there is competitive pressure. And those are the two big impacts versus what we thought before.

    更廣泛地說,尤其是在美國,在某些市場,像我之前提到的那些市場,存在著競爭壓力。這就是與我們之前預想的兩個主要影響。

  • But again, I mean, it's isolated markets that we are absorbing this capacity. We are keeping our occupancy up despite the new supply. And we're getting that price increases despite the new supply. So we think, in a very unpredictable and very challenged environment, the company is executing as well as possible.

    但話說回來,我的意思是,我們目前只是在一些孤立的市場中吸收了這些產能。儘管新增供應,我們的入住率依然保持穩定。儘管新增了供應,我們仍然面臨價格上漲。因此我們認為,在這樣一個充滿不確定性和挑戰的環境中,該公司已經盡了最大努力去執行好業績。

  • Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer

    Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer

  • And it's another benefit of having a very diversified global footprint, right? So we can benefit from growth in other markets to help balance out our performance. So I think it's a positive for Lineage overall.

    這也是擁有多元化全球佈局的另一個好處,對吧?因此,我們可以從其他市場的成長中受益,從而幫助平衡我們的業績。所以我認為這對《天堂》系列整體來說是件好事。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tayo Okusanya, Deutsche Bank.

    Tayo Okusanya,德意志銀行。

  • Omotayo Okusanya - Analyst

    Omotayo Okusanya - Analyst

  • Yes. Ki Bin, welcome aboard. Rob with the BB, also welcome aboard.

    是的。Ki Bin,歡迎登船。Rob 和 BB 也歡迎加入。

  • First quarter in a while you guys really haven't done much on the acquisition side. Just curious what you're seeing from that perspective. I know I kind of curious, again, is it just really more tied to your overall cost of equity right now that you slowed down or kind of how you're kind of looking at acquisitions going forward?

    這是你們近來第一個在收購方面動作不多的季度。只是好奇你從這個角度看到了什麼。我知道我有點好奇,您放慢收購步伐,是真的更多地與目前的整體股權成本有關,還是與您未來看待收購的方式有關?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. So we're highly disciplined as always on capital deployment. We're cognizant of developments that we're working on. We see our leverage ratios, they're in a really good spot. We don't obviously view our equity as a place anywhere but very, very undervalued. So we're not interested in issuing equity, and so we're managing the portfolio, and we'll be really smart on capital deployment.

    是的。因此,我們在資金部署方面一如既往地保持高度自律。我們清楚我們正在推進的專案進展。我們查看了槓桿率,發現它們處於非常有利的位置。我們當然不認為我們的股權有任何價值,它被嚴重低估了。因此,我們對發行股票不感興趣,所以我們正在管理投資組合,並且我們會非常明智地進行資本部署。

  • There's obviously a ton of opportunity out there, and there's more things becoming available in the market. So we'll be opportunistic, but we're going to be very disciplined.

    顯然,外面有很多機會,市場上也湧現越來越多的產品和服務。所以我們會抓住機會,但同時也會非常自律。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • McGinniss, Scotiabank.

    麥金尼斯,加拿大豐業銀行。

  • Greg McGinniss - Equity Analyst

    Greg McGinniss - Equity Analyst

  • Greg, I was hoping to get some more insight into the earnings commentary regarding improvement in fresh and frozen demand that Lineage is seeing. Is that in reference to the Q2 seasonality trend? Or is there something more broadly that you're seeing in the market?

    格雷格,我希望能更深入地了解一下關於 Lineage 公司在生鮮和冷凍食品需求改善方面的盈利評論。這是指第二季的季節性趨勢嗎?或者,您在市場上觀察到了更普遍的趨勢嗎?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So it's third-party data that -- yes, that's going. It's not our view, it's third party.

    所以,是第三方數據——是的,這些數據將被移除。這不是我們的觀點,而是第三者的觀點。

  • Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer

    Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, this is third-party data from Nielsen, which is the retail data, and then Circana is the rolled-up food service data. So it's the full picture of food consumed in the United States from the two best sources that we purchased this last quarter because we had -- our data showed that underlying demand was growing, but we didn't have third-party data.

    是的,這是來自尼爾森的第三方數據,即零售數據,而 Circana 是匯總的餐飲服務數據。因此,這是我們上個季度從兩個最佳來源購買的美國食品消費情況的完整圖景,因為我們的數據顯示潛在需求正在成長,但我們沒有第三方數據。

  • So we want to provide that every quarter. And what that shows is continued growth in the categories that we supply in fresh and frozen. It's -- we very much believe it's accurate, and that's what we thought. Despite the -- again, despite the elevated food inflation, the underlying categories continue to grow.

    所以我們希望每季都能提供這項服務。這表明我們供應的新鮮和冷凍食品類別持續成長。我們非常相信它是準確的,我們也是這麼想的。儘管——再次強調,儘管食品通膨居高不下,但各品類仍持續成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dan Guglielmo, Capital One.

    Dan Guglielmo,Capital One。

  • Daniel Guglielmo - Analyst

    Daniel Guglielmo - Analyst

  • You all mentioned the stronger international trends versus the US, which does align some with what we've seen for other global brands this earnings season. Can you just remind us what the rough revenue breakdown is between the U.S. and international? And then are there certain international markets where you see opportunities to lean in?

    你們都提到了國際趨勢比美國更強勁,這與我們在本財報季看到的其他全球品牌的情況有些吻合。能否簡要說明美國市場和國際市場的大致收入組成?那麼,您是否看到一些值得深入開拓的國際市場?

  • Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer

    Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So overall, we're 70-30 sort of US versus Rest of the World.

    是的。所以整體來說,美國與世界其他地區的佔比大概是70比30。

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I think Europe overall, our European team is crushing it and winning it in a lot of different markets in Europe, and we're excited about continued growth there, both in same-store and non-same-store.

    是的。我認為總體而言,我們的歐洲團隊在歐洲許多不同的市場都取得了巨大的成功,我們對歐洲市場的持續成長感到興奮,無論是在同店銷售還是非同店銷售方面。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vikram Malhotra, Mizuho.

    Vikram Malhotra,瑞穗銀行。

  • Vikram Malhotra - Analyst

    Vikram Malhotra - Analyst

  • Congrats to everyone on their new roles. I guess just two clarifications. One, on just the numbers, maybe you can share some color on what you've seen in October, specifically to keep sort of the occupancy seasonal uptick. Your peers sort of assume the occupancy does an uptick. So why are you still assuming occupancy upticks?

    恭喜各位榮任新職。我想只澄清兩點。首先,就數字而言,您能否分享一下您在十月看到的情況,特別是關於入住率季節性增長的情況。你的同行似乎都認為入住率會上升。那麼,為什麼你仍然假設入住率會上升呢?

  • And just on the comment on you can get pricing next year, I mean if there's still supply volumes are muted, like what gives you confidence on pricing? So that's just the first.

    至於你說的明年能拿到價格的問題,我的意思是,如果供應量仍然低迷,你憑什麼對價格有信心?這只是第一個。

  • And then second, do you mind sharing some specific examples -- like all the acquisitions you've done in the past 5 years, maybe just give us some overall sense of how underwriting -- how actual performance has trended versus underwriting in terms of whether it's NOI growth or yields or anything else, just to give the sense of what those properties recently acquired are doing?

    其次,您能否分享一些具體的例子——例如您過去 5 年完成的所有收購,或許可以讓我們大致了解一下承銷情況——實際業績與承銷情況的趨勢,無論是淨營業收入增長、收益率還是其他方面,以便我們了解最近收購的那些物業的運營情況?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. So on the occupancy front inter quarter, it's pretty much spot on what we thought it would be after last quarter. So our total occupancy guide and the seasonality that we predicted is happening in our network. In fact, on Monday, I get the occupancy report every week. And for the first time in, I don't know, 8 quarters maybe, the occupancy was higher than prior year, total, in the same store. So that was great to see.

    當然。因此,就入住率而言,本季的情況與上一季相比,基本上符合我們的預期。因此,我們預測的總入住率和季節性變化在我們的網路中正在發生。事實上,我每週一都會收到入住率報告。而且,不知是多久以來,可能是 8 個季度以來,同一家商店的總入住率首次高於去年同期水準。看到這一幕真是太好了。

  • And so we're seeing that trend. It's a combination of the new supply kind of settling and us performing well in the marketplace. And again, on the pricing front, what gives us confidence that we can get price next year is we got it this year. And there was probably no harder year in our industry's history than this year, given the new supply that's been delivered over the last couple, and we were able to get net increases in price, and the initial conversations with customers are for next year that they're open to very modest price increases, and we think we'll get that price.

    所以我們看到了這種趨勢。這是新供應模式逐漸穩定以及我們在市場上表現良好的共同結果。再次強調,在定價方面,我們今年已經獲得了理想的價格,這讓我們有信心明年也能獲得理想的價格。鑑於過去幾年新供應的增加,今年可能是我們行業歷史上最艱難的一年,儘管我們能夠實現價格淨增長,但與客戶的初步洽談表明,他們對明年非常溫和的價格上漲持開放態度,我們認為我們能夠達到這個價格。

  • On the M&A front, we bought 70 companies in the last five years. It's varied by region and facility. Overall, we're certainly happy with the acquisitions of the network we built as we think it's irreplaceable and industry-leading. We don't break down each individual past acquisitions, we roll that in up into global [Avnet]. And a lot of things change when we buy. But we certainly made progress on cost productivity, occupancy as we roll companies into Lineage family.

    在併購方面,我們過去五年收購了 70 家公司。因地區和設施而異。總的來說,我們對所建立的網路的收購感到非常滿意,因為我們認為它是不可替代的,並且處於行業領先地位。我們不會逐筆列出過去的收購案例,而是將它們匯總到全球範圍內。[Avnet]買東西之後,很多事情都會改變。但隨著我們將公司納入 Lineage 大家庭,我們在成本效益和入住率方面確實取得了進展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Blaine Heck, Wells Fargo.

    Blaine Heck,富國銀行。

  • Blaine Heck - Analyst

    Blaine Heck - Analyst

  • Just following up on guidance. With respect to the fourth quarter, it's a relatively wide range between $0.68 and $0.78. So can you just share your thoughts on what key drivers or line items are kind of the biggest variables that could result in AFFO coming in towards the upper or lower end of the range?

    只是根據指導意見進行後續跟進。就第四季而言,其波動範圍相對較大,介於 0.68 美元至 0.78 美元之間。您能否分享一下您對哪些關鍵驅動因素或專案是可能導致調整後營運資金 (AFFO) 最終落在該範圍上限或下限的最大變數的看法?

  • Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer

    Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So the bigger thing, obviously we can manage is the recurring maintenance CapEx. And and for the fourth quarter, it's always typically our seasonally highest quarter. We expect that again that certainly can move $5 million or $10 million based on spending.

    是的。所以,顯然我們能夠掌控的更重要的事情是經常性的維護資本支出。而第四季通常都是我們季節性業績最高的季度。我們預計,根據支出情況,這肯定可以再次帶來 500 萬至 1000 萬美元的收益。

  • Obviously, same-store NOI is the thing we care about the most. And we're working hard to, as Greg mentioned, we -- so far, October is looking okay, but that's embedded in our guidance. But certainly, if we have more year-end activity, that will help because really services revenue and a lot of that is related to these tariffs and containers; and so as Greg mentioned, that could certainly get a lot better at the end of the year.

    顯然,同店淨營業收入是我們最關心的指標。正如格雷格所提到的那樣,我們正在努力——到目前為止,10 月的情況看起來還不錯,但這已經體現在我們的指導方針中。但可以肯定的是,如果我們年底有更多業務活動,那將會有所幫助,因為服務收入很大程度上與關稅和貨櫃有關;正如格雷格所提到的,年底情況肯定會好轉很多。

  • But we're just being very, very cautious based on what we see right now. And it's hard to predict November, December end-of-year activity. And so that was our thought process on the guidance.

    但根據我們目前看到的情況,我們採取了非常非常謹慎的態度。11月、12月年底的活動很難預測。這就是我們制定指導方針的想法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Lewis, Truist Securities.

    Michael Lewis,Truist Securities。

  • Michael Lewis - Equity Analyst

    Michael Lewis - Equity Analyst

  • Great. Thank you. Well, we're welcoming people. I'll welcome Robb. I'll, of course, welcome my good buddy and pal, Kevin and maybe welcome myself to covering this name as well.

    偉大的。謝謝。我們歡迎大家。我將歡迎羅布。我當然會歡迎我的好朋友凱文,也許我也會很樂意替他代言。

  • My question, I wanted to ask, I don't think anybody asked about this lapsing SNAP benefits, right? So it will be a temporary thing. I just wonder if there could be any impact on 4Q from that. Surprisingly to me, I guess, one out of every eight Americans is on food stamps. Is there any potential for that to cause anything in the numbers in 4Q if this drags on? Or is that not really a concern?

    我想問的是,我想應該沒有人問過關於 SNAP 福利即將到期的問題吧?所以這只是暫時的。我只是想知道這是否會對第四季度產生任何影響。令我驚訝的是,每八個美國人中就有一張領取食物券。如果這種情況持續下去,是否有可能對第四季的數據造成影響?或者說,這根本不是個問題?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. And Ki Bin's concerned because part of this comp package is food stamps. So let me start with the SNAP, but I'll talk more broadly about the government shutdown.

    是的。Ki Bin很擔心,因為補償方案的一部分是食物券。那麼,我先從SNAP(補充營養援助計畫)說起,但之後我會更廣泛地談談政府停擺問題。

  • So just a little context on SNAP in overall food consumption, so in '24, US consumers spent roughly $2.7 trillion on food and the SNAP benefits from the federal government were about $100 billion or about 4% of total food expenditures.

    簡單介紹一下 SNAP 在整體食品消費中的作用。 2024 年,美國消費者在食品上的支出約為 2.7 兆美元,而聯邦政府提供的 SNAP 福利約為 1,000 億美元,約佔食品總支出的 4%。

  • But the data shows that for every dollar in change in SNAP benefits, the total food spending only changes about $0.30 because consumers just change their budgets and they're going to continue to eat. And so who knows what's going to happen here if the courts are going to step in or the states are going to pick up the tab or it just goes back to normal.

    但數據顯示,SNAP 福利每變動 1 美元,食品總支出只會變動約 0.30 美元,因為消費者只是調整了預算,他們仍然會繼續吃東西。所以誰也不知道接下來會發生什麼,是法院介入,還是各州承擔費用,或者一切就恢復正常了。

  • But even in the most dire case, where SNAP benefits are completely eliminated, the impact on total food consumption would only be about 1%. And so we do not see this being a meaningful impact in the short, medium or long-term, as we don't think it will totally go away. And even if it did, it's 1% of total consumption.

    但即使在最極端的情況下,SNAP 福利完全取消,對食品總消費量的影響也僅約為 1%。因此,我們認為這在短期、中期或長期內不會產生實質影響,因為我們認為它不會完全消失。即使真的如此,也只佔總消費量的 1%。

  • More broadly, on the government shutdown, we are seeing other impacts -- for example, the USDA cold storage survey that the holdings report that you all report on every month or most of you do isn't being issued during the shutdown. We are seeing import, export order delays.

    更廣泛地說,政府停擺也帶來了其他影響——例如,美國農業部冷藏庫調查報告(你們每月都會提交,或者說你們中的大多數人都會提交)在政府停擺期間沒有發布。我們發現進出口訂單延誤。

  • So while customs is operational, the FDA, the EPA, the USDA all have reduced staffing, leading to delays in inspections and certifications and documentation. So we are seeing, as a result of that, some increased dwell times in the ports and terminals. We're also seeing delays in export license approvals. But I think most importantly, though, the USDA and the FDA actual food inspections have been unaffected.

    因此,雖然海關仍在運作,但美國食品藥物管理局 (FDA)、美國環保署 (EPA) 和美國農業部 (USDA) 都減少了人員配備,導致檢查、認證和文件處理延誤。因此,我們看到港口和碼頭的停留時間增加。我們也發現出口許可證審批出現了延誤。但我認為最重要的是,美國農業部和食品藥物管理局的實際食品檢查並未受到影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Samir Khanal, Bank of America.

    薩米爾·卡納爾,美國銀行。

  • Samir Khanal - Analyst

    Samir Khanal - Analyst

  • I guess, Greg, I was looking at this chart on Page 30, which is the presentation you have up there, where you show economic and physical, an 80% economic today; I mean do you have data going back prior to, let's say, '21 and even 2020? Just trying to see if there was any other time before 2020 or '21, where occupancy was below 80%. It's clearly been a problem forecasting occupancy in this business. So I was trying to figure out how today's levels compare to historically before 2020.

    格雷格,我剛剛看了第 30 頁的圖表,就是你上面展示的那張圖表,上面顯示了經濟和實體經濟,目前經濟狀況為 80%;我的意思是,你有沒有 2021 年甚至 2020 年之前的數據?我只是想看看在 2020 年或 2021 年之前是否還有其他入住率低於 80% 的時期。顯然,預測該行業的入住率一直是個難題。所以我想弄清楚,目前的水平與 2020 年之前的歷史水平相比如何。

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, good question. And the second half, we are -- we did forecast occupancy accurately, to be clear. But you're right, it is very, very challenging to forecast it in this environment.

    是的,問得好。至於下半年,我們——需要明確的是,我們確實準確預測了入住率。但你說得對,在這種環境下進行預測確實非常非常具有挑戰性。

  • And the answer is it's very challenging to go back prior to 2020 because we bought so many new companies in that time frame and the same-store pool is so different. And so I do think just from my memory, not supported by like-for-like data. There were certainly times prior to 2021 where our occupancy was lower than it is today.

    答案是,要回到 2020 年之前是非常具有挑戰性的,因為我們在那段時間收購了太多新公司,同店市場已經發生了很大的變化。所以,我的想法只是憑記憶,並沒有同等數據的支持。在 2021 年之前,我們的入住率確實曾經低於現在的水平。

  • I'm thinking about 2016, '17, '18, back when we were just kind of still a young company and much smaller. Obviously, different footprint, we weren't in Europe yet. But yes, there were times in our core business where economic occupancy was lower.

    我想起了 2016 年、2017 年、2018 年,那時我們還是一家年輕的公司,規模也小得多。顯然,足跡不同,我們當時還沒到歐洲。但確實,我們核心業務也曾出現過經濟入住率較低的情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Mueller, JPMorgan.

    邁克爾·穆勒,摩根大通。

  • Michael Mueller - Analyst

    Michael Mueller - Analyst

  • Curious, what are your larger customers telling you at this time about volume expectations for 2026? And have you seen any customers wanting to shrink their fixed commitment agreement yet?

    很好奇,您的大客戶目前對 2026 年的銷售預期是什麼?您有看過有客戶想要縮短固定期限合約嗎?

  • Greg McGinniss - Equity Analyst

    Greg McGinniss - Equity Analyst

  • So 2026 is very difficult to predict. And I think that's what our customers are telling us. We're just in the midst of our -- we don't even have October numbers finally yet. We're just in the midst of -- our business unit presidents are working on their '26 budgets right now and -- with the finance team next week, and I'll see a roll up in a couple of weeks.

    所以2026年很難預測。我認為這正是我們的客戶告訴我們的。我們目前正處於統計過程中——我們甚至還沒有最終的十月數據。我們現在正處於——我們的業務部門總裁們正在製定他們的 2026 年預算,下週將與財務團隊一起制定,我將在幾週內看到匯總結果。

  • And certainly, puts and calls as I sit here today, but hard to predict. And that hard to predict is driven by all the conversations we're having with our customers worldwide, who see their business as hard to predict. And so it's -- we'll see, we'll be continuing to have those conversations through the budget cycle.

    當然,就我目前所見,看漲期權和看跌期權都有,但很難預測。這種難以預測的現像源自於我們與全球客戶的交流,他們都認為自己的事業難以預測。所以,我們拭目以待,我們將在整個預算週期中繼續進行這些討論。

  • And -- but as far as the volume guarantees, as I mentioned, Michael, a lot of them got reset in the first half of this year, and we think that we're at a very healthy level of volume guarantees now.

    至於銷售保證,正如我之前提到的,邁克爾,今年上半年很多銷售保證都進行了重置,我們認為我們現在的銷售保證水平非常健康。

  • We're actually kind of -- we kind of reset the bar, and now we're making a little bit of progress. I wouldn't see those dropping a bunch more. I don't think we have kind of an overhang of incremental resets. And new business that we're earning, as I mentioned, is coming in with slightly higher volume guarantees than our average.

    實際上,我們算是——我們算是重新設定了標準,現在我們已經取得了一些進展。我覺得價格不會再大幅下跌了。我不認為我們有增量重置過多的問題。正如我之前提到的,我們新獲得的業務量保證略高於我們的平均水平。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Todd Thomas, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    Todd Thomas,KeyBanc Capital Markets。

  • Todd Thomas - Analyst

    Todd Thomas - Analyst

  • Just in terms of the tariff uncertainty that you cited and the decrease in container traffic, it seems like some of this is just lost business, but is there an impact on inventory levels as a result of this decrease in container traffic that you mentioned that might create some pent-up demand to the extent that there's improved visibility or if there's some change around tariffs here? How could this sort of play out in the quarters ahead?

    就您提到的關稅不確定性和貨櫃運輸量的下降而言,似乎部分損失只是業務損失,但您提到的貨櫃運輸量下降是否會對庫存水準產生影響,從而在能見度提高或關稅方面有所變化的情況下,產生一些被壓抑的需求?接下來的幾個季度,這種情況會如何發展?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. The answer is yes. I mean we were seeing consistent container volumes through July bounce around month-to-month, but it was pretty consistent. And then we saw a drop through September and that lower level is being [steep], as of this point.

    是的。答案是肯定的。我的意思是,7 月我們看到的貨櫃吞吐量一直比較穩定,雖然每個月都有小幅波動,但總體來說相當穩定。然後我們看到9月出現下跌,而且截至目前,這個下跌幅度相當大。

  • And again, 20% in our Western business unit is not small, and it is not driven by new business. It is driven by predominantly our seafood customers that are holding off to reorder. And that's the impact. So yes, are they going to reorder some point for (technical difficulty) Easter? Absolutely. We're just not predicting that's going to be in the fourth quarter at this point.

    再次強調,我們西部業務部門 20% 的成長率並不算低,而且這並非由新業務驅動的。這主要是由於我們的海鮮客戶推遲了重新訂購的計劃。這就是影響。所以,他們是否會因為技術問題而重新安排復活節的某些環節?絕對地。我們目前還不能預測這種情況會在第四季發生。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nick Thillman, Baird.

    Nick Thillman,Baird。

  • Nicholas Thillman - Analyst

    Nicholas Thillman - Analyst

  • Good morning, everyone. Just as we think about the excess capacity you all highlighted within the presentation, we're hearing a lot from the food manufacturers on restructuring, rationalizing supply chains.

    各位早安。正如我們在演講中提到的產能過剩問題一樣,我們也聽到食品製造商對重組和合理化供應鏈的許多回饋。

  • I was wondering if there's anything Lineage just been doing on their own network, whether it be closing underutilized facilities or just rationalizing their footprint within the US being a large player that could maybe close that gap with excess capacity we're just seeing from a national picture.

    我想知道 Lineage 是否在其自身網路上採取了什麼措施,例如關閉未充分利用的設施,或者作為一家大型營運商,對其在美國的業務佈局進行合理化調整,以彌補我們從全國範圍內看到的產能過剩問題。

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Great question. So there's kind of two things going on with customers. The first big one, the huge impact over the last couple of years was the destocking from COVID. We think that's behind us, that's really good, kind of back to normal inventory levels or bouncing across the bottom, but certainly, there's not more excess inventory that's being depleted at this point broadly.

    是的。問得好。所以,顧客方面大致存在兩種情況。第一個重大影響,也是過去幾年影響最大的影響,是新冠疫情導致的庫存減少。我們認為這種情況已經過去了,這真的很好,庫存水準基本上恢復正常,或者說在底部反彈,但可以肯定的是,目前總體上不會再出現大量庫存積壓的情況了。

  • There's customers who have been optimizing their supply chains across my 30-year career, and we are their partners in helping them position inventory properly to satisfy their customers' requirements, and help them determine how much to store where and how to transport those products into our facilities and out to their customers.

    在我 30 年的職業生涯中,我們一直與客戶合作,幫助他們優化供應鏈,並幫助他們合理安排庫存以滿足客戶的需求,同時幫助他們確定存儲多少庫存、存儲地點以及如何將這些產品運輸到我們的設施並交付給他們的客戶。

  • And so Tyson is a great example of that. We were right in the middle of their optimization. And we're the recipient of core business, given that optimization. We're having those conversations with customers all the time.

    泰森就是一個很好的例子。我們當時正處於他們優化過程的關鍵階段。鑑於這種優化,我們是核心業務的受益者。我們常和客戶進行這類對話。

  • On the new supply as far as kind of how it could come out, it's an excellent question. We've idled 8 buildings so far this year. We know some of our competition has as well. And we do that for obvious reasons. We take out the labor, we lower or eliminate the energy costs, and we're able to move that business into the adjacent facilities, and that's part of what's so great about having such a large debt network is that we have the opportunity to do this where much of our competition doesn't.

    關於新供應將如何出現,這是一個很好的問題。今年到目前為止,我們已經閒置了 8 棟建築。我們也知道有些競爭對手也這麼做了。我們這樣做是有原因的,這一點顯而易見。我們省去了勞動力成本,降低了能源成本,並且能夠將業務轉移到鄰近的設施。擁有如此龐大的債務網絡的好處之一就是,我們有機會做到這一點,而我們的許多競爭對手卻做不到。

  • And so if you look at other ways that capacity is going to come out, we're idling -- others are idling old buildings that have higher maintenance CapEx where that are not needed, where we can move that product elsewhere. We also feel that some of the new operators are really struggling as they have a high basis in their properties if they own the assets, and they're paying very high leases if they lease them.

    因此,如果你看看其他釋放產能的方式,你會發現我們正在閒置——其他人也在閒置那些維護成本較高的舊建築,而這些建築並不需要,我們可以把這些產品轉移到其他地方。我們也覺得一些新業者確實處境艱難,因為如果他們擁有資產,那麼他們的資產成本很高;如果他們租賃資產,那麼他們支付的租金也很高。

  • And because they built it peak construction cost timing. And so we believe that some of these companies are going to not succeed and we plan to assess these opportunities for consolidation and bring those facilities into our network as they present themselves. I think an important caveat to that is that not all warehouses are created equal, and we're pretty good at making strategic acquisitions for the capacity only when it makes sense for our network.

    而且因為他們選擇在建造成本最高的時期建造。因此,我們認為其中一些公司不會成功,我們計劃評估這些整合機會,並在機會出現時將這些設施納入我們的網路。我認為需要特別注意的是,並非所有倉庫都一樣,而且我們非常擅長根據自身網路情況進行策略性容量收購。

  • We also believe that some of the inventory that's been added was just added in the wrong locations or it was built in a way the actual development itself and the configuration of the building makes it fundamentally disadvantaged and we think it will just fail in the medium term.

    我們也認為,新增的一些庫存只是放在了錯誤的位置,或者建造方式本身,以及建築物的配置,使其從根本上處於劣勢,我們認為它在中期內注定會失敗。

  • And so we think capacity will come out that way as well. And we did see we are hearing directly from some competitors that they're struggling in a big way and there is instances where companies and close our doors as well.

    所以我們認為產能也會朝著那個方向發展。我們也直接從一些競爭對手那裡了解到,他們正面臨巨大的困境,甚至有些公司已經關門大吉。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tayo Okusanya, Deutsche Bank.

    Tayo Okusanya,德意志銀行。

  • Omotayo Okusanya - Analyst

    Omotayo Okusanya - Analyst

  • Yes. Could you talk a little bit about sort of labor on your same-store pool, kind of pretty well managed; but on the non-same-store pool, some kind of large year-over-year increases kind of understanding, you've added kind of new assets over time? But just curious, are these new rule assets have, again, lower occupancy assets but already fully staffed or kind of what's kind of happening on the nonsame-store side to kind of have these really large jobs with the increased number of facilities?

    是的。您能否談談同店成本池的勞動成本,管理得相當不錯;但在非同店成本池方面,由於您隨著時間的推移增加了新的資產,出現了一些同比大幅增長的情況?但我很好奇,這些新規則下的資產是否再次出現了入住率較低但人員配備齊全的情況,或者說,非同店方面的情況是否與設施數量增加導致的大型項目有關?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Good question. Obviously, on the non-same-store pool, frankly, I wouldn't focus on it because there's so much going on there. We have 25 buildings either ramping or in development. And we have to -- for example, in that labor line is our General Manager and our Assistant Manager and our supervisors, and we hire them before a pallet even hits the building.

    是的。問得好。顯然,坦白說,對於非同店投注池,我不會把注意力放在它上面,因為那裡發生的事情太多了。我們有 25 棟建築正在建造或開發中。例如,我們必須這樣做——在這個勞動力隊伍中,有我們的總經理、助理經理和主管,我們甚至在貨物運到廠房之前就僱用了他們。

  • And so all these are in different phases of the J-curve. And so you'll see kind of abnormalities in that labor line until they move into the same-store pool.

    因此,所有這些都處於 J 曲線的不同階段。因此,你會看到勞動力隊伍中出現一些異常情況,直到他們進入同一家商店的勞動力池。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Caitlin Burrows, Goldman Sachs.

    Caitlin Burrows,高盛集團。

  • Caitlin Burrows - Analyst

    Caitlin Burrows - Analyst

  • I had a question on the pricing side. So one of the concerns I've heard from investors is that I think it's like half of your portfolio one-year agreements. So those were recently reset in '25. But the other half, that means, they're on leases from a few years ago. Maybe you could tell us how far back they go. But what's the risk of rent roll outs from those older contracts that were established a few years ago in '26? And is that incorporated into your view of low single-digit rate increase in '26? Or is that '26 low single-digit price increase only related to those one-year agreements and the rest could be an incremental headwind?

    我有一個關於定價方面的問題。我從投資人那裡聽到的一個擔憂是,我認為你們投資組合中大約有一半都是一年合約。所以這些在 2025 年最近進行了重置。但另一半,也就是說,它們是幾年前簽訂的租約。或許您可以告訴我們它們的歷史可以追溯到多久以前。但是,那些幾年前(2026 年)簽訂的舊合同,其租金到期會帶來什麼風險?您是否將此因素納入您對 2026 年低個位數利率成長的看法中?或者說,2026 年的個位數低點價格上漲僅與那些一年期協議有關,而其餘部分可能只是逐漸增加的不利因素?

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Great question. We don't see an overhang from long-term agreements that are going to get reset at lower levels. And definitely, all those are included in our projections of low single-digit net price increase.

    問得好。我們認為,長期協議將被重置到較低水平,不會造成太大的影響。當然,所有這些都已包含在我們對淨價格小幅上漲(個位數百分比)的預測中。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Ki Bin Kim for closing remarks.

    問答環節到此結束。我謹將電話交還給金基彬先生,請他作總結發言。

  • Ki Bin Kim - Head of Investor Relations

    Ki Bin Kim - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you. On behalf of the entire Lineage team, thank you for joining us today. We hope you will be able to attend our [NAREIT] Investor Forum on Monday, December 8, where we will highlight our operational and excellence and unique LinOS list platform. We look forward to speaking with you again. Thank you, everyone.

    謝謝。我謹代表整個 Lineage 團隊,感謝您今天蒞臨現場。我們希望您能參加我們於 12 月 8 日星期一舉行的 [NAREIT] 投資者論壇,屆時我們將重點介紹我們的營運卓越性和獨特的 LinOS 清單平台。我們期待再次與您溝通。謝謝大家。

  • Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, everybody.

    謝謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining in. You may now disconnect.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。