使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to the Lineage Logistics second-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) It is my pleasure to turn the call over to Mr. Evan Barbosa. Sir, you may begin.
早安,歡迎參加 Lineage Logistics 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)我很高興將電話轉給 Evan Barbosa 先生。先生,您可以開始了。
Evan Barbosa - Vice President, Investor Relations
Evan Barbosa - Vice President, Investor Relations
Thank you. Welcome to Lineage's discussion of its second quarter 2025 financial results. Joining me today are Greg Lehmkuhl, Lineage's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Rob Crisci, Lineage's Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings presentation, which includes supplemental financial information can be found on our Investor Relations website at ir.onelineage.com. Following management's prepared remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions.
謝謝。歡迎參加 Lineage 2025 年第二季財務業績討論。今天與我一起出席的還有 Lineage 總裁兼執行長 Greg Lehmkuhl 和 Lineage 財務長 Rob Crisci。我們的收益報告(包含補充財務資訊)可在投資者關係網站 ir.onelineage.com 上查閱。管理層發表完準備好的發言後,我們很樂意回答您的問題。
Turning to slide 2. Before we start, I would like to remind everyone that our comments today will include forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our filings with the SEC. These risks could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Forward-looking statements in the earnings release that we issued today, along with the comments on this call, are made only as of today and will not be updated as actual events unfold.
翻到幻燈片 2。在我們開始之前,我想提醒大家,我們今天的評論將包括聯邦證券法下的前瞻性陳述。正如我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述,這些聲明受到眾多風險和不確定性的影響。這些風險可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的評論中表達或暗示的結果有重大差異。我們今天發布的收益報告中的前瞻性陳述以及對本次電話會議的評論僅截至今天為止,不會隨著實際事件的展開而更新。
In addition, reference will be made to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information regarding our use of these measures and a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures can be found in the press release that was issued this morning. Unless otherwise noted, reported figures are rounded, in comparisons of the second quarter of 2025 or to the second quarter of 2024.
此外,也將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關我們使用這些指標以及非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標與公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標的對帳信息,請參閱今天上午發布的新聞稿。除非另有說明,報告的數字都是四捨五入的,與 2025 年第二季或 2024 年第二季相比。
Now I would like to turn the call over to Greg.
現在我想把電話轉給格雷格。
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Evan and thanks everyone for joining us today. I'll start by going over our agenda for this morning. First, I'll recap our second quarter performance, which was in line with our expectations. Next, we'll cover our updated second half outlook, including our occupancy and price expectations for the remainder of the year. After that, we'll cover our guidance update, which is a reduction versus our prior outlook, driven by muted CECL inventory levels.
謝謝,埃文,也謝謝大家今天的參加。我先來介紹一下我們今天早上的議程。首先,我來回顧一下我們第二季的業績,這符合我們的預期。接下來,我們將介紹最新的下半年展望,包括今年剩餘時間的入住率和價格預期。之後,我們將介紹我們的指導更新,由於 CECL 庫存水準低迷,與我們先前的展望相比,這項更新有所減少。
I will then turn it over to Rob to review segment details and provide an update on our balance sheet. Lastly, I will summarize the quarter and turn it over to your questions. Turning to our quarterly performance on slide 4, we delivered AFFO per share growth of above 8%.
然後,我將把它交給 Rob 來審查分部細節並提供我們資產負債表的更新。最後,我將總結本季並回答大家的提問。回顧幻燈片 4 上的季度業績,我們實現了每股 AFFO 成長 8% 以上。
Total revenue increased modestly by 1% and adjusted EBITDA decreased by 2%, reflecting the challenging market dynamics we're currently navigating. These dynamics are driven by persistently higher food prices, interest rates, tariff impacts and a general sense of uncertainty helped by our customers and are leading to reduced expectations around the balance of the year inventory build.
總營收小幅成長 1%,調整後 EBITDA 下降 2%,反映了我們目前面臨的充滿挑戰的市場動態。這些動態是由持續走高的食品價格、利率、關稅影響以及客戶普遍存在的不確定感所驅動,並導致對今年庫存餘額的預期降低。
This updated outlook has led us to reduce our annual AFFO per share guidance to $3.20 to $3.40 compared to our prior range of $3.40 to $3.60. Transition to our second quarter results. Our global warehousing segment was in line with our expectations as we laid out in last quarter's call. Same warehouse NOI was down 6% year-over-year against elevated inventory levels we experienced last year. While these market dynamics are fluid and obviously difficult to predict, we remain confident in our core business.
此次更新的展望使我們已將年度每股收益預期 (AFFO) 下調至 3.20 美元至 3.40 美元,而先前的預期範圍為 3.40 美元至 3.60 美元。請關注我們第二季的業績。我們的全球倉儲部門符合我們在上個季度電話會議上提出的預期。與去年庫存水準上升相比,同一倉庫的 NOI 年比下降了 6%。儘管這些市場動態瞬息萬變且難以預測,但我們對我們的核心業務仍然充滿信心。
We saw a sequential improvement during the second quarter in our same-store NOI, which increased from $336 million to $343 million. Notably, Q2 is normally the lowest seasonal occupancy quarter of the year. We're also seeing storage revenue for physical occupied pallet stability as expected as I'll discuss more in a minute. Our Global Integrated Solutions saw 8% year-over-year segment NOI growth led by our US transportation and direct-to-consumer businesses.
我們第二季的同店淨利較上季成長,從 3.36 億美元增至 3.43 億美元。值得注意的是,第二季通常是一年中入住率最低的季度。我們還看到物理佔用托盤穩定性的儲存收入符合預期,我將在稍後詳細討論。我們的全球綜合解決方案部門淨營業利潤年增 8%,這主要得益於美國運輸和直接面向消費者的業務。
Across the company, we are acutely focused on partnering with our customers as they navigate through these terminal times. We will continue to work as strategic partners to help them to improve their supply chain efficiency. Additionally, the rollout of LinOS, now at six conventional sites, continues to accelerate and perform above our expectations, showing double-digit productivity improvements. We expect to have 10 conversions completed by year-end, setting us up to further accelerate the broader rollout of 2026. Also during the quarter, we completed our inoperable $500 million investment rate bond offering.
在整個公司範圍內,我們高度重視與客戶合作,幫助他們度過這段艱難時期。我們將繼續作為策略合作夥伴幫助他們提高供應鏈效率。此外,LinOS 現已在六個常規站點推出,其速度持續加快,性能超出我們的預期,生產率實現了兩位數的提高。我們預計到年底將完成 10 項轉換,為進一步加快 2026 年更廣泛的推廣做好準備。此外,在本季度,我們也完成了 5 億美元無法操作的投資利率債券發行。
Additionally, we executed on our M&A and development pipeline and accretively deployed $535 million in growth capital, including closing our agreements with Tyson Foods in addition to three smaller acquisitions. Before moving on to a more detailed analysis of our performance, I want to say a few words about our company.
此外,我們還執行了併購和開發計劃,並累積部署了 5.35 億美元的成長資本,包括與泰森食品達成協議以及進行三項較小規模的收購。在對我們的業績進行更詳細的分析之前,我想先介紹一下我們的公司。
Lineage is positioned as the industry leader with broad and deep customer relationships, the largest network, cutting-edge technology and is a world leader in warehouse automation. I'm confident that we are well positioned to grow as the food industry inventory stabilize, new capacity is absorbed and our internal initiatives continue to get traction. I would also like to take a moment to sincerely thank all of our team members across the world for living our values as they deliver excellent service to our customers every day.
Lineage 定位為行業領導者,擁有廣泛而深厚的客戶關係、最大的網絡、尖端的技術,並且是倉庫自動化領域的全球領導者。我相信,隨著食品業庫存的穩定、新產能的吸收以及我們的內部舉措的持續推進,我們已做好充分的準備來實現成長。我也想藉此機會真誠地感謝我們在世界各地的所有團隊成員,感謝他們每天都實踐我們的價值觀,為我們的客戶提供優質的服務。
Moving to slide 5. When we met with investors in early June (inaudible) we reaffirmed guidance based on what we were seeing in the marketplace at that time. The blue line on this chart shows our actual and projected physical utilization whereas the green line shows typical quarterly USDA seasonality from 2015 through 2019, the years before the pandemic caused disruption in the normal seasonal pattern and the red line shows 2025 actual USDA seasonality.
移至投影片 5。當我們在六月初與投資者會面時(聽不清楚),我們根據當時在市場上看到的情況重申了指導。這張圖表中的藍線顯示了我們的實際和預期的物理利用率,而綠線顯示了 2015 年至 2019 年(大流行導致正常季節性模式中斷之前的幾年)典型的美國農業部季度季節性,紅線顯示了 2025 年實際的美國農業部季節性。
As you can see, throughout much of the first half of the year, we were slightly above the pre-pandemic USDA averages which we see as a proxy for normal seasonality and informed our prior guidance. Late in the second quarter, with inventories historically started to decline, we saw muted seasonality in occupancy. This trend continued into the third quarter, and we've only recently seen a positive inflection in their inventories.
如您所見,在今年上半年的大部分時間裡,我們的產量略高於疫情前的美國農業部平均水平,我們認為這是正常季節性的代表,並為我們先前的指導提供了參考。第二季末,由於庫存量開始下降,入住率的季節性特徵逐漸減弱。這一趨勢一直持續到第三季度,我們最近才看到他們的庫存出現正面變化。
This delayed occupancy improvement, combined with persistently high feed prices, tariff uncertainty, and elevated customer inventory carrying costs drove our decision to lower outlook for the second half. To be clear, our occupancy projection is what changed as our assumptions around cost efficiencies, price, throughput and GIS growth remained unchanged from our previous guidance. All that said, we still expect inventories to build through the third quarter and into the fourth quarter supporting sequential same warehouse NOI and adjusted EBITDA improvement in each quarter of the year.
入住率改善的延遲,加上飼料價格持續高企、關稅不確定性以及客戶庫存持有成本上升,促使我們決定下調下半年的預期。需要明確的是,我們的入住率預測發生了變化,因為我們對成本效率、價格、吞吐量和 GIS 成長的假設與先前的指導保持不變。儘管如此,我們仍然預計庫存將在第三季和第四季增加,從而支持全年每季連續的相同倉庫 NOI 和調整後的 EBITDA 改善。
Turning to slide 6. We had a number of questions about price in relation to our storage revenue for physical pallet after we announced our first quarter results. A quick reminder that our storage revenue per physical pallet consists of red storage and blast revenue. As outlined at NAREIT, we expect to see stable trends for the balance of the year.
翻到幻燈片 6。在我們宣布第一季業績後,我們對與實體托盤儲存收入相關的價格提出了許多疑問。快速提醒一下,我們每個實體托盤的儲存收入包括紅色儲存和爆炸收入。正如 NAREIT 所述,我們預計今年剩餘時間的趨勢將保持穩定。
This quarter, we saw nearly 5% sequential improvement in same warehouse storage revenue per physical pallet. As you can see on the chart, there's always some short-term volatility in this metric, which is driven by a number of factors, including rate, volume guarantees, inventory turns, blast freezing volumes, commodity mix, exchange rates and seasonality.
本季度,我們看到每個實體托盤的相同倉庫儲存收入較上季成長了近 5%。正如您在圖表上看到的,該指標總是存在一些短期波動,這是由許多因素驅動的,包括費率、數量保證、庫存週轉率、速凍量、商品組合、匯率和季節性。
Additionally, we saw a sequential increase in our minimum storage guarantees, increasing 290 basis points from Q1 to Q2 as the new business we are winning has a higher percentage of storage guarantees [that are based] While it remains a competitive environment. about 90% of contracts to be renegotiated this year have been completed, giving us confidence in our stable price outlook for the balance of the year.
此外,我們的最低儲存保證也較上季增加,從第一季到第二季增加了 290 個基點,因為我們贏得的新業務具有更高比例的儲存保證(基於)。雖然競爭環境依然存在,但今年約有 90% 的重新談判合約已經完成,這使我們對今年剩餘時間的穩定價格前景充滿信心。
Moving to slide 7. Based on the factors I described today, we're lowering our full year 2025 outlook. Coupled with the AFFO per share reduction I've already outlined, we're revising our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance to the range of $1.29 billion to $1.34 billion, down from our previous range of $1.35 billion to $1.4 billion.
移至幻燈片 7。根據我今天描述的因素,我們下調了 2025 年全年預期。加上我已經概述的每股 AFFO 減少,我們將全年調整後的 EBITDA 指引從先前的 13.5 億美元至 14 億美元下調至 12.9 億美元至 13.4 億美元。
Given the dynamics unfolding in the industry, we want to provide more clarity regarding our near-term expectations. And accordingly, we are initiating guidance for the next quarter. For Q3, we expect AFFO per share to be between $0.75 and $0.79 and adjusted EBITDA to be between $326 million and $336 million. Some of the maintenance CapEx spend moved from the second quarter into the third quarter, which is reflected in our AFFO per share guidance.
鑑於產業的發展動態,我們希望更清楚地說明我們的近期預期。因此,我們將開始為下一季制定指導。對於第三季度,我們預計每股 AFFO 將在 0.75 美元至 0.79 美元之間,調整後的 EBITDA 將在 3.26 億美元至 3.36 億美元之間。部分維護資本支出從第二季度轉移到第三季度,這反映在我們的每股 AFFO 指引中。
It's obviously been a very tough road since our IPO with customer inventories rationalizing tariff uncertainty, higher interest rates and food prices and new competition entering our market. We believe the industry demand is bouncing along the bottom right now.
自從首次公開募股以來,我們的道路顯然非常艱難,客戶庫存合理化了關稅的不確定性、更高的利率和食品價格,而且新的競爭對手進入了我們的市場。我們認為,目前產業需求正在觸底反彈。
Unfortunately, the uncertain macro backdrop is slowing our expectations of a broader market inflection in inventories and throughput. Lowering guidance is both difficult and disappointing for us but we remain focused on executing our business plan and driving shareholder value. We are also aligned with our investors as our management team has the majority of our compensation tied to long-term equity incentives.
不幸的是,不確定的宏觀背景正在減緩我們對庫存和吞吐量更廣泛的市場拐點的預期。降低預期對我們來說既困難又令人失望,但我們仍然專注於執行我們的業務計劃並推動股東價值。我們也與投資者保持一致,因為我們的管理團隊的大部分薪酬與長期股權激勵掛鉤。
In summary, we believe we've turned the corner that our business has begun to steadily improve in the short term, while we continue to invest to win in the long term. We saw sequential NOI improvements in Q2, which is normally the lowest quarter of the year. We expect this improvement to continue in the second half with same-store NOI trending positively, positioning us well for growth in 2026.
總而言之,我們相信我們已經渡過了難關,我們的業務在短期內已經開始穩步改善,同時我們將繼續投資以取得長期勝利。我們看到第二季的淨營業利潤 (NOI) 出現連續改善,而第二季通常是一年中營業利潤最低的季度。我們預計這種改善將在下半年持續,同店淨營業利潤將呈現正面趨勢,為我們在 2026 年實現成長奠定良好基礎。
To that end, on slide 8, (inaudible) outlined some of the actions we're taking to position Lineage for long-term success. We're focused on driving competitive differentiation across three key areas: delivering customer success, leveraging our network effects and enhancing warehouse productivity.
為此,在第 8 張投影片上,(聽不清楚)概述了我們為 Lineage 的長期成功所採取的一些行動。我們專注於在三個關鍵領域推動競爭差異化:實現客戶成功、利用我們的網路效應和提高倉庫生產力。
Starting with customer success. We're focused on addressing our customers' primary concerns, which include optimizing supply chain costs, increased efficiency and further improving service by marrying our global integrated solutions offering with our expansive global warehouse network. We're also enhancing our responsiveness in customer service consistency.
從客戶成功開始。我們專注於解決客戶的主要顧慮,包括優化供應鏈成本、提高效率,並透過將我們的全球綜合解決方案與廣泛的全球倉庫網路結合來進一步改善服務。我們也正在增強客戶服務一致性的回應能力。
Through a new partnership with Cognizant, we are elevating our customer care model through proven best-in-class technologies, expanded service hours and deep customer service expertise, all while retaining the same team members as points of contact that our customers have known for years.
透過與 Cognizant 建立新的合作夥伴關係,我們透過經過驗證的一流技術、延長的服務時間和深厚的客戶服務專業知識提升我們的客戶關懷模式,同時保留客戶多年來熟悉的團隊成員作為聯絡點。
Next, on network effects, we're leveraging our best practices, economies of scale, investments in technology, broad service offerings and presence across 19 countries to support the increasingly global needs of our customers. We're also using our scale to drive cost savings across our platform in areas such as energy and insurance. In markets experiencing excess capacity, we're proactively consolidating facilities to drive higher occupancy and efficiency. As the industry leader, our scale and breadth position us to create value through network optimization efforts like these.
其次,在網路效應方面,我們利用我們的最佳實踐、規模經濟、技術投資、廣泛的服務產品和遍布 19 個國家的業務來支持客戶日益增長的全球化需求。我們也利用我們的規模來推動整個平台在能源和保險等領域的成本節約。在產能過剩的市場中,我們積極整合設施,以提高入住率和效率。作為行業領導者,我們的規模和廣度使我們能夠透過此類網路優化工作創造價值。
Finally, regarding warehouse productivity, I truly believe we have the best operating team in the business. LinOS has always been at the core of our operating culture. It has helped us deliver service excellence and consistent productivity gains over many years. We expect LinOS to build on this foundation and accelerate efficiencies while making Lineage an even better place to work. As previously mentioned, our ongoing LinOS pilots are continuing to show double-digit productivity improvements.
最後,關於倉庫生產力,我堅信我們擁有業界最好的營運團隊。LinOS 一直是我們營運文化的核心。多年來,它幫助我們提供卓越的服務和持續的生產力提升。我們希望 LinOS 能夠在此基礎上提高效率,同時使 Lineage 成為一個更好的工作場所。如前所述,我們正在進行的 LinOS 試點繼續顯示兩位數的生產力提升。
We look forward to sharing more financial details with investors by year-end. Lastly, our industry leadership in automation remains unmatched as illustrated by our agreements with Tyson Foods discussed last quarter. Simply put, we will never stop working to earn the right to grow with our value customers.
我們期待在年底前與投資者分享更多財務細節。最後,正如我們上個季度與泰森食品達成的協議所表明的那樣,我們在自動化領域的行業領導地位仍然無與倫比。簡而言之,我們將永不停止努力,爭取與我們的價值客戶共同成長的權利。
Now I'd like to turn the call over to our CFO, Rob Crisci.
現在我想將電話轉給我們的財務長 Rob Crisci。
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Greg. Good morning, everyone. Starting on slide 9 and quickly recapping our segment performance. In our Global Warehouse segment, total revenue grew slightly and total NOI declined 4% to $367 million. Same warehouse revenue was down 3%, while same warehouse cost of operations decreased 1% aided by our continued labor and energy productivity initiatives.
謝謝,格雷格。大家早安。從第 9 張投影片開始,快速回顧我們的細分市場表現。在我們的全球倉庫部門,總收入略有成長,總淨營業利潤下降 4% 至 3.67 億美元。由於我們持續的勞動力和能源生產力舉措,同倉收入下降了 3%,而同倉營運成本下降了 1%。
Contribution from non-same warehouse NOI grew 33%, driven by acquisitions and developments that continue to ramp. We received some positive contributions from the Tyson Foods agreements, which closed in June, and we are off to a great start.
受持續成長的收購和開發的推動,非同一倉庫淨營業收入 (NOI) 貢獻增加了 33%。我們從六月達成的泰森食品協議中獲得了積極的貢獻,我們有了一個很好的開始。
Additionally, we expect $109 million of incremental future NOI from previously completed and in-process development projects that have yet to stabilize. We've already spent over $1.1 billion of the $1.2 billion total investment on these projects where the future NOI benefit is yet to be realized. In summary, we are well positioned to grow, aided by the impact of these nearly completed developments.
此外,我們預計,先前已完成和正在進行但尚未穩定的開發項目未來將帶來 1.09 億美元的增量淨營運收入。我們已經在這些項目上花費了總投資 12 億美元中的 11 億美元以上,但未來的 NOI 效益尚未實現。總而言之,在這些即將完工的開發案的幫助下,我們已做好充分的成長準備。
Shifting to slide 10 and covering our Global Integrated Solutions segment. Revenue was up 2% to $380 million and NOI was up 8% to $68 million. Our NOI margin was up 100 basis points to 17.9%. We are seeing strong momentum in our US transportation and direct-to-consumer businesses. Our customers continue to appreciate Lineage's integrated solutions and unmatched global service offering. For the remainder of 2025, we expect this strong momentum to continue with double-digit growth in the second half.
前往第 10 張投影片並介紹我們的全球整合解決方案部分。營收成長 2% 至 3.8 億美元,淨利潤成長 8% 至 6,800 萬美元。我們的淨營業利潤率上升了 100 個基點,達到 17.9%。我們看到美國運輸和直接面向消費者的業務發展勢頭強勁。我們的客戶持續讚賞 Lineage 的整合解決方案和無與倫比的全球服務。對於 2025 年剩餘時間,我們預計這一強勁勢頭將持續,並在下半年實現兩位數成長。
Moving to slide 11. We ended the quarter with net debt of $7.4 billion. Total liquidity stood at $1.5 billion, including cash and available capacity on our revolving credit facility. Our leverage ratio, defined as net debt to LTM adjusted EBITDA was 5.7%. We will remain highly disciplined on future capital deployment. In June, we successfully completed our inaugural $500 million investment-grade bond offering, which carried a 5.25% coupon on a five-year term.
移至投影片 11。本季末我們的淨債務為 74 億美元。總流動資金為 15 億美元,包括現金和循環信貸額度的可用容量。我們的槓桿率(定義為淨負債與 LTM 調整後 EBITDA 的比率)為 5.7%。我們將對未來的資本部署保持高度自律。6 月份,我們成功完成了首筆 5 億美元投資等級債券的發行,該債券期限為五年,票面利率為 5.25%。
Our new bond has been well received by investors and has traded tighter since the offering. I'd like to thank Michele Devon, our world-class treasury team and our banking partners for the great execution on our inaugural deal. Investment-grade status was a key driver of our decision to go public and we are excited to have access to these markets moving forward. With that, I'll turn it back over to Greg to wrap up before opening it up to your questions.
我們的新債券自發行以來一直受到投資者的歡迎,交易較為緊張。我要感謝 Michele Devon、我們世界一流的財務團隊以及我們的銀行合作夥伴在我們首筆交易中的出色執行。投資等級地位是我們決定上市的關鍵驅動因素,我們很高興能夠進入這些市場。說完這些,我將把時間交還給 Greg 總結,然後再開始回答你們的問題。
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
In summary, on slide 12, our Q2 results were in line with our expectations. We're lowering our guidance due to our revised outlook regarding the seasonal inventory build, pricing remains stable. And importantly, we saw sequential revenue, NOI and EBITDA improvement, which we expect to continue going forward. We are the global [cold] chain leader in providing the critical infrastructure for the food industry, an industry with positive long-term growth.
總而言之,在第 12 張投影片上,我們的第二季業績符合我們的預期。由於我們對季節性庫存增加的展望進行了修改,我們下調了指導價,但價格保持穩定。重要的是,我們看到了連續的收入、淨利潤和息稅折舊攤提前利潤的改善,我們預計這種趨勢將持續下去。我們是全球冷鏈產業的領導者,為食品產業提供關鍵的基礎設施,而食品產業則具有長期積極的成長動能。
We're achieving meaningful progress on our internal initiatives such as our LinOS technology. We are positioned to deliver strong operating leverage when the industry improves. And finally, our management team has never been more committed to delivering results and to driving long-term shareholder value.
我們在 LinOS 技術等內部措施上取得了有意義的進展。當產業好轉時,我們有能力提供強大的經營槓桿。最後,我們的管理團隊從未像現在這樣致力於實現成果並推動長期股東價值。
With that, let's open it up for questions. Operator?
好了,讓我們開始提問吧。操作員?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指示)
Mr. Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.
亞歷山大·戈德法布先生,派珀·桑德勒。
Alexander Goldfarb - Analyst
Alexander Goldfarb - Analyst
Hey. Good morning out there. I guess for my one question, Greg, at NAREIT, you guys reiterated the guidance from earlier this year. Clearly, you had a chance at that point to revise down. And just want to understand everything was tracking well until basically June 1. And then after that, things fell off. It just seems a little tough again, especially given that you guys had an opportunity to revise them. Just curious what you're thinking and how things were trending then versus what materially happened subsequent to NAREIT that caused you guys to reduce the outlook?
嘿。大家早安。我想對於我的一個問題,格雷格,在 NAREIT,你們重申了今年早些時候的指導。顯然,此時你有機會向下修改。我只是想知道直到 6 月 1 日一切都進展順利。但從那以後,事情就開始變得更糟了。這似乎又有點困難,特別是考慮到你們有機會修改它們。只是好奇您在想什麼,當時的情況如何,以及 NAREIT 之後發生了什麼實質性的事情導致您們降低了前景?
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Good morning, Alex. Honestly, great question. And you're right. What changed is our occupancy guide. We had been trending in line with typical seasonality. And I think everyone remembers we described and we described typical seasonality is the normal seasonal pattern of -- we were referencing 2015 to 2019 before all the disruptions of COVID, when the normal seasonal pattern happened for generations really before that disruption and that you start in Q1, you dropped to a bottom in Q2 and then you build up to through Q3 and Q4.
是的。早安,亞歷克斯。說實話,這個問題問得好。你是對的。改變的是我們的入住指南。我們的趨勢一直與典型的季節性一致。我想每個人都記得我們描述過,我們描述的典型季節性是正常的季節性模式——我們指的是 2015 年至 2019 年,在 COVID 造成所有乾擾之前,當時正常的季節性模式在幹擾發生之前已經持續了幾代人,從第一季度開始,在第二季度跌至谷底,然後一路攀升第三季度和第四季度。
And so at NAREIT, we were trending actually in line with typical seasonality, actually a little bit better than normal seasonality and how the USDA indicated the market was performing. So we were above the line, as indicated on our slide 5.
因此,在 NAREIT,我們的趨勢實際上與典型的季節性一致,實際上比正常季節性以及美國農業部指示的市場表現要好一些。因此,如幻燈片 5 所示,我們處於該線之上。
In June, when we typically see utilization in fact after bottoming in May. And this year, we just started to see the typical seasonal uplift of utilization in late July which is obviously later than usual, and that pickup has been a little bit more gradual than it typically is. So we do still anticipate a seasonal uplift in the second half, and we do see that happening now in the last couple of weeks.
6月份,我們通常會看到利用率在5月份觸底後上升。今年,我們在 7 月下旬才開始看到典型的季節性利用率上升,這顯然比平常晚,而且這種上升速度比平常慢一些。因此,我們仍然預計下半年會出現季節性上漲,而且我們確實看到這種情況在過去幾週內正在發生。
But because of the delay and because of the muted seasonal pattern that we're seeing today versus what we were seeing when we talked at NAREIT and because of the ongoing uncertainty around tariffs that elevated inventory carrying costs we're just lowering our expectations on the magnitude of the uplift. Importantly, as you saw, we did see sequential improvement in our same-store NOI Q1 to Q2, and we expect to improve in each quarter of the year.
但由於延遲,以及我們今天看到的季節性模式與我們在 NAREIT 談話時看到的情況相比有所減弱,而且由於圍繞關稅的持續不確定性導致庫存持有成本上升,我們只是降低了對上漲幅度的預期。重要的是,正如您所看到的,我們確實看到第一季至第二季的同店淨銷售額有所改善,並且我們預計今年每季都會有所改善。
Alexander Goldfarb - Analyst
Alexander Goldfarb - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Ki Bin Kim, Truist.
Ki Bin Kim,Truist。
Ki Bin Kim - Analyst
Ki Bin Kim - Analyst
Thanks. Good morning. Maybe we can just start off at a higher level. What's the best argument you think you've heard from your clients in terms of why occupancy is too low or throughput volume is too low today versus what, I guess, the industry players and yourselves included might think what is normal going forward. So what are the best argument for that?
謝謝。早安.也許我們可以從更高的層次開始。關於為什麼今天的佔用率太低或吞吐量太低,您認為您從客戶那裡聽到的最好的論點是什麼?我想,包括您在內的業內人士可能會認為未來的正常情況是什麼?那麼對此最好的論點是什麼呢?
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I think as I mentioned on the prepared remarks, we believe the industry is bouncing along the bottom right now. I mean food producers on their earnings calls and in all of our meetings continue to cite just high food pricing and value-seeking behavior from customers. Our view right now is that inventories have been under serious pressure for a couple of years now and in servicing consumers without stock outs, which nobody will handle would be very difficult at even lower levels. And so we definitely feel we're bouncing off the bottom.
是的。我想,正如我在準備好的演講中提到的那樣,我們相信該行業目前正處於底部反彈階段。我的意思是,食品生產商在他們的收益電話會議和我們所有的會議上繼續提到食品價格高和顧客的價值追求行為。我們現在的觀點是,庫存幾年來一直承受著巨大的壓力,在沒有缺貨的情況下為消費者提供服務將會非常困難,因為沒有人能夠處理缺貨的情況,即使在庫存水平較低的情況下也是如此。因此,我們確實感覺到我們正在從底部反彈。
There are some data positive data points out there like the beef herd counts, which are obviously still below the 2021 levels, that appears to stabilize based on the 2025 USDA data, and (inaudible) data showed that restaurant industry in -- the whole industry gained momentum after a slow start to the year. Also, our customers are pushing very, very hard for -- to increase volumes through incentives and their sales efforts. And if those incentives are successful or we get any interest rate relief either one of those things could act as a stimulus for increasing inventories moving forward.
有一些積極的數據點,例如肉牛存欄數量,顯然仍低於 2021 年的水平,但根據 2025 年美國農業部的數據,這一數據似乎已趨於穩定,並且(聽不清)數據顯示,餐飲業——整個行業在年初緩慢增長後獲得了發展動力。此外,我們的客戶也非常努力地透過激勵措施和銷售努力來增加銷售量。如果這些激勵措施取得成功,或者我們獲得任何利率減免,那麼其中任何一項都可以刺激未來庫存的增加。
Ki Bin Kim - Analyst
Ki Bin Kim - Analyst
And do you think GLP-1 drugs are having a significant impact on volumes or occupancy?
您認為 GLP-1 藥物對銷售量或占有率有顯著影響嗎?
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
We don't, and our customers don't. I mean certainly, if you look at our commodity mix of heavy in proteins, seafood, food and veg, those are areas where people are eating more of, not less of. And we think long term, if the drugs work, and hopefully, they do and dramatically impact diabetes deaths that people will live longer and people will eat more in the long term.
我們不會,我們的客戶也不會。我的意思是,如果你看看我們的商品結構,其中富含蛋白質、海鮮、食品和蔬菜,你會發現這些是人們吃得更多而不是更少的。我們認為,從長遠來看,如果這些藥物有效,並且希望它們有效,並顯著影響糖尿病死亡人數,那麼人們將活得更長,從長遠來看人們將吃得更多。
Ki Bin Kim - Analyst
Ki Bin Kim - Analyst
All right. Thank you, guys.
好的。謝謝你們。
Operator
Operator
Mr. Michael Griffin, Evercore.
Evercore 的邁克爾格里芬先生。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Great. Thanks. Appreciate the comments earlier on the LinOS pilot. And I know you said you'd kind of quantify the benefits of that later in the year. But maybe can you give us any anecdotal examples of initiatives you're undertaking and maybe some of the benefits you've seen from the implementation of these pilot 6 or 10 facilities, however many it's been?
偉大的。謝謝。感謝您先前對 LinOS 試辦的評論。我知道您說過您會在今年稍後量化其好處。但是,您能否給我們一些您正在採取的舉措的軼事例子,以及您從實施這些 6 個或 10 個試點設施(無論有多少)中看到的一些好處?
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. We have six implemented so far, we'll do 10 by the end of the year. And all I can say is this is our initiative is exciting. It's on track. It's exceeding expectations. And we're seeing double-digit total labor productivity improvements across the six-line site. So to remind everyone, LinOS is our proprietary warehouse execution system. This started many years ago from a vision and a belief from Sudarsan Thattai, our CIO; and Elliott Wolf, our Chief Data Scientist and their teams that we can reimagine the way warehouses run and that technology and data science are the enablers.
是的。到目前為止我們已經實施了 6 項,到今年年底我們將實施 10 項。我只能說,我們的倡議令人興奮。一切進展順利。這超出了預期。我們看到六條生產線的總體勞動生產力都實現了兩位數的提高。因此提醒大家,LinOS 是我們專有的倉庫執行系統。這始於多年前我們的資訊長 Sudarsan Thattai 和首席資料科學家 Elliott Wolf 及其團隊的願景和信念:我們可以重新構想倉庫的運作方式,而技術和資料科學是推動因素。
And so LinOS through our own proprietary algorithms optimizes literally every resource and movement that happens in the warehouse, much like air traffic control, if you will, from how trucks are loaded and unloaded to where product is put away to directing each task in the building with the result of optimizing performance for customers and dramatically increasing our warehouse efficiency. And so we have the evidence now that this vision is coming to life and can fundamentally change our competitive position over time given its impact on customers' cost and even our employee experience.
因此,LinOS 透過我們自己的專有演算法優化了倉庫中發生的每種資源和移動,就像空中交通管制一樣,從卡車的裝卸方式到產品的存放位置,再到指揮建築物中的每項任務,從而優化客戶的性能並顯著提高我們的倉庫效率。因此,我們現在有證據表明,這個願景正在變成現實,隨著時間的推移,考慮到它對客戶成本甚至員工體驗的影響,可以從根本上改變我們的競爭地位。
And most great things take time and LinOS is no different. And this year is about proving out the functionality and getting it rolled out to different types of facilities before a much broader and accelerated rollout next year and the year after. And so we're increasingly excited about how this can just fundamentally transform our operations because we see the benefit now across the six sites, not only in direct labor, which was the primary focus, but also in indirect labor, employee benefits, energy, safety, employee turnover, the employee experience training expense.
大多數偉大的事情都需要時間,LinOS 也不例外。今年的目標是驗證其功能,並將其推廣到不同類型的設施,然後在明年和後年進行更廣泛、更快速的推廣。因此,我們越來越興奮於這將如何從根本上改變我們的運營,因為我們現在看到了六個站點的好處,不僅在直接勞動力方面(這是主要關注點),而且在間接勞動力、員工福利、能源、安全、員工流動率、員工體驗培訓費用方面。
We even think it's going to materially lower both our CapEx and our facility maintenance expense over time as we're more efficient in the use of our facilities and our material handling equipment. And so over time, we think it will materially lower our cost structure, help us compete and improve what we already have as an excellent service for our customers. So we're highly encouraged, and we believe LinOS is going to be everything we thought it would be, and we can't wait to share a lot more detail around kind of financials and how these algorithms work around the NAREIT conference later this year.
我們甚至認為,隨著我們更有效率地使用我們的設施和物料搬運設備,它將隨著時間的推移大幅降低我們的資本支出和設施維護費用。因此,隨著時間的推移,我們認為它將大幅降低我們的成本結構,幫助我們競爭並改善我們現有的、為客戶提供優質服務的產品。因此,我們受到很大的鼓舞,我們相信 LinOS 將成為我們想像中的樣子,我們迫不及待地想在今年稍後的 NAREIT 會議上分享更多有關財務狀況和這些演算法如何運作的細節。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Great. Thank you.
偉大的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Brendan Lynch, Barclays.
巴克萊銀行的布倫丹·林奇。
Brendan Lynch - Analyst
Brendan Lynch - Analyst
Great. Thank you for taking my questions. Greg, you mentioned this a bit in your prepared remarks, but can you discuss the pricing strategy in the second quarter for rent storage relative to the first quarter? It looks like you recaptured the trend line on that slide 6, which was a little bit of a surprise given it sounded like you were giving some price concessions in the first quarter to get volume. So maybe just what has changed and what we should expect going forward?
偉大的。感謝您回答我的問題。格雷格,您在準備好的發言中提到了這一點,但是您能討論一下第二季度相對於第一季度的租賃存儲定價策略嗎?看起來您重新捕捉到了第 6 張投影片上的趨勢線,這有點令人驚訝,因為聽起來您在第一季做出了一些價格優惠以獲得銷售量。那麼也許只是發生了哪些變化以及我們應該對未來抱持什麼樣的期待?
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. The short answer is nothing has changed. And let me explain why. So we communicated over the last quarter's results and at NAREIT that we thought pricing levels would be stable for the balance of the year. In our prepared remarks today, we discussed that there's always some short-term volatility in this metric, and you'll see that on slide 6, which is driven by a number of factors.
是的。簡短的回答是,什麼都沒有改變。讓我來解釋一下原因。因此,我們在上一季的業績和 NAREIT 中傳達了這樣的訊息:我們認為今年全年的物價水準將保持穩定。在我們今天的準備好的發言中,我們討論了該指標總是存在一些短期波動,您會在第 6 張投影片上看到這一點,這是由多種因素驅動的。
I'll repeat them. Rate or price is certainly a piece of that, but also volume guarantees, inventory turns, last reason volumes, commodity mix, geographic mix, exchange rate and seasonality can all impact the way this metric fluctuates quarter-to-quarter. And so yes, the pricing was up the Rent, Storage and Blast, 5% sequentially. But much like we weren't concerned that it went down a little bit last quarter, we're not over celebrating this quarter of the sequential 5% because it's not all price. This quarter was benefited by European FX and elevated volume guarantees which (inaudible) reset in the first quarter, given the resetting inventory levels.
我會重複一遍。費率或價格當然是其中的一部分,但數量保證、庫存週轉率、最後原因數量、商品組合、地理組合、匯率和季節性都會影響該指標的季度波動方式。是的,租金、倉儲費和爆炸費的價格較上月上漲了 5%。但就像我們不擔心上個季度的銷量略有下降一樣,我們也不會過度慶祝本季環比成長 5%,因為這並不是全部價格上漲的結果。本季受惠於歐洲外匯和增加的銷售保證,由於庫存水準重置,銷售保證在第一季重置(聽不清楚)。
The second quarter is normally and is this year likely to be the lowest occupancy quarter of the year, so you're collecting a little bit more about volume guarantees, which elevates your rep storage and blast per occupied pallet. And so again, long story short, nothing has changed. We got our 2% to 3% price. We see the pricing environment as competitive but stable, and we wouldn't -- we're not concerned about this element for the balance of the year and is consistent with our prior guidance.
第二季度通常是(今年也可能是)一年中佔用率最低的季度,因此您可以多收集一些有關容量保證的信息,從而提高您的代表性儲備量和每個佔用托盤的爆炸力。長話短說,什麼都沒有改變。我們獲得了 2% 到 3% 的價格。我們認為定價環境具有競爭力但穩定,我們不會——我們不會擔心今年剩餘時間的這一因素,這與我們先前的指導一致。
Brendan Lynch - Analyst
Brendan Lynch - Analyst
Okay, very good. Thank you.
好的,非常好。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Ronald Kamdem, Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利的羅納德‧坎登 (Ronald Kamdem)。
Ronald Kamdem - Analyst
Ronald Kamdem - Analyst
Hey. Thanks so much. Just a quick two-parter. Just can you talk a little bit more about sort of throughput was down same-store 3.2% this quarter, which decelerated from the last quarter number. Just help us think about sort of what's happening on that front? Is product just being stuck somewhere in the supply chain, is number one. And then the second comment is just updated thoughts on supply in the industry. Thanks.
嘿。非常感謝。這只是一段簡短的雙人表演。您能否再多談本季同店吞吐量下降 3.2% 的情況,與上一季相比有所下降。能否幫助我們思考這方面正在發生什麼事?產品是否只是滯留在供應鏈的某個地方,這是首要的。第二條評論只是對行業供應的最新想法。謝謝。
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
You got it. So we talked about this concept of core holdings in the last quarter, and we define that as volumes from customers that have not meaningfully changed their business with us over the last four years. So we didn't win business, we didn't lose business. They're consistent, and that represents over 70% of our global warehouse holdings. So as we talked about, core holdings have been under pressure since the beginning of the inventory unwind coming out of COVID starting in '23.
你明白了。因此,我們在上個季度討論了核心持股的概念,我們將其定義為過去四年來與我們的業務沒有重大變化的客戶的交易量。因此,我們既沒有贏得生意,也沒有失去生意。它們是一致的,並且占我們全球倉庫持有量的 70% 以上。正如我們所討論的,自 2023 年 COVID 疫情導致庫存減少以來,核心持股一直面臨壓力。
And as a reminder, and as we explained on the last call, the total outbound pallets on an annual basis have remained remarkably flat over the last few years. In this quarter, as you mentioned, we did see throughput pallets down 3% in our same-store warehouse portfolio year-over-year. But we would expect that given the elevated inventory levels we saw last year. And if you look sequentially, the throughput was up about 1%.
需要提醒的是,正如我們在上次電話會議中所解釋的那樣,過去幾年中,每年出貨托盤總量一直保持相當平穩。正如您所提到的,本季我們同店倉庫吞吐量托盤數量年減了 3%。但考慮到去年庫存水準上升,我們預計會出現這種情況。如果你按順序來看,吞吐量上升了約 1%。
And so our view is the core holdings remain under pressure due to the items I've already mentioned, higher food prices, elevated inventory carrying costs, higher interest rates and just the uncertainty around tariffs. On the supply side, I think -- we all know that it's not a super transparent industry like some other sectors.
因此,我們認為核心資產仍面臨壓力,原因是我已經提到的因素,包括食品價格上漲、庫存持有成本上升、利率上升以及關稅的不確定性。在供應方面,我認為——我們都知道,它不像其他一些行業那樣是一個超級透明的行業。
And it's not widely tracked by third-party brokers and things are published and talk about supply and demand in our space. So we've been working collaboratively with CBRE to create a database of new announcements this year. And what that database and data shows is that we peaked at -- the new openings peaked in '23 and we've seen elevated levels in the two years since then.
它並沒有被第三方經紀人廣泛跟踪,而是發布並討論我們領域的供需。因此,我們今年一直與世邦魏理仕 (CBRE) 合作創建新公告資料庫。資料庫和數據顯示,新開幕酒店數量在 2023 年達到頂峰,此後兩年內,酒店數量一直呈上升趨勢。
The latest information we have now shows that over the last two years, 3% to 4% capacity came online each year, and we now expect 2025 to be at a similar level. However, announcements for '26 deliveries are showing a substantial decrease in new volume coming online versus the past few years. Our data right now shows about 1% new supply being delivered in '26.
我們目前掌握的最新資訊顯示,在過去兩年中,每年有 3% 到 4% 的產能上線,我們預計 2025 年的產能將達到類似的水平。然而,26 年交付公告顯示,與過去幾年相比,新上線的數量大幅減少。我們目前的數據顯示,26 年交付的新供應量約為 1%。
And of course, that could change as new announcements are made, but we certainly anticipate a drop going forward. And so just one more data point, as you guys probably already all know, we observed a similar pattern of construction in the broader industrial warehousing sector. Where there was roughly a three-year period of elevated new supply post COVID, and that has now returned to historical levels.
當然,隨著新公告的發布,這種情況可能會發生變化,但我們肯定預計未來會下降。因此,再多一個數據點,正如你們可能已經知道的,我們在更廣泛的工業倉儲領域觀察到了類似的建設模式。在新冠疫情之後,大約有三年的時間新增供應量增加,現在已恢復到歷史水準。
Ronald Kamdem - Analyst
Ronald Kamdem - Analyst
Helpful. Thank you.
很有幫助。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Michael Goldsmith, UBS.
瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。
Michael Goldsmith - Analyst
Michael Goldsmith - Analyst
Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Can you walk through the assumptions that underpin the third quarter and fourth quarter guidance? And what gives you confidence in the material step-up in trends expected in the fourth quarter? Thanks.
早安.感謝您回答我的問題。您能否解釋一下第三季和第四季指引所依據的假設?是什麼讓您對第四季預期的趨勢實質提升充滿信心?謝謝。
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Why don't know I start just --
為什麼我不知道我開始--
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, go ahead.
是的,繼續吧。
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So just to talk about the biggest assumption that gives us confidence is continued progress on internal initiatives, on productivity savings, on energy savings, on all the things that we're doing across our company to drive efficiency and new business. And the occupancy that we -- the reason we changed our guidance is the occupancy expectation being more muted than we were previously guiding to.
因此,讓我們充滿信心的最大假設是內部舉措、生產力節約、能源節約以及我們公司為提高效率和開展新業務所做的所有事情都將繼續取得進展。我們改變入住率指導的原因是入住率預期比我們之前預測的要低。
But we are already seeing that we bounced off the bottom in occupancy, and we are climbing into the season that we would expect to climb into although it'd just be a couple months later than we anticipated. Our price assumptions, our productivity assumptions are almost everything else same. Tariffs have a little impact. But that's really what changed. Rob?
但我們已經看到入住率已從谷底反彈,並且我們正在進入我們預期的旺季,儘管這比我們預期的晚了幾個月。我們的價格假設、生產力假設幾乎與其他所有假設都相同。關稅的影響不大。但那確實發生了改變。搶?
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, that's right. Yeah. And so we're trying to give you a little bit more data here. So we gave you slide 5, which is our occupancy guide for the rest of the year, which mirrors everything that Greg said. And I think there's confidence in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter, which is very similar to prior to what we saw last year.
是的,沒錯。是的。因此,我們嘗試在這裡為您提供更多數據。因此,我們為您提供了第 5 張幻燈片,這是我們今年剩餘時間的入住率指南,其中反映了 Greg 所說的一切。我認為與第三季相比,第四季的信心與去年同期非常相似。
So we talked about starting to see normal seasonality in the second half of last year. and that's embedded in our guide here. So I think we feel really good about it, and we lowered all the reasons Greg said. But again, it's just occupancy and it's our industry and it's evolving, and we feel really good that we are now sequentially improving and that's a great place to be.
因此,我們談到去年下半年開始出現正常的季節性。這已包含在我們的指南中。所以我認為我們對此感覺很好,並且我們降低了格雷格所說的所有理由。但同樣,這只是入住率,這是我們的行業,它正在不斷發展,我們感到非常高興,我們現在正在逐步改善,這是一個很好的地方。
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
(inaudible) as much as it has in prior years, then there's -- then we'll be seen as conservative, I guess, but trying to take a prudent view given what we're seeing.
(聽不清楚)與前幾年一樣,那麼-我想,我們會被視為保守的,但根據我們所看到的情況,我們會試圖採取謹慎的觀點。
Michael Goldsmith - Analyst
Michael Goldsmith - Analyst
Thanks, again.
再次感謝。
Operator
Operator
Samir Khanal, Bank of America.
薩米爾·卡納爾,美國銀行。
Samir Khanal - Analyst
Samir Khanal - Analyst
Yeah, thank you. Good morning, everybody. I guess, Greg, help us understand how to think about the rebound or the inflection in occupancy? I mean, clearly, there's very little visibility from our side here, right? So is it the macro? Is it the health of the consumer? What should we be paying attention to as we think about the timing of the inflection? And then at this point, I think folks are trying to understand what the trajectory of growth even looks like into the '26. So help us understand kind of what you track and that would be helpful. Thanks.
是的,謝謝。大家早安。我想,格雷格,請幫助我們理解如何看待入住率的反彈或轉折點?我的意思是,顯然,從我們這邊來看,能見度很低,對吧?那麼它是宏嗎?這是消費者的健康嗎?當我們思考拐點的時機時,我們該注意什麼?然後,我認為此時人們正試圖了解 26 年的成長軌跡是什麼樣的。因此,請幫助我們了解您所追蹤的內容,這將會很有幫助。謝謝。
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. I mean the number 1 thing we track is our conversations with customers and our own occupancy. And if you think about our second half guide, we did see us come off the bottom, and we've had a few weeks of -- a couple of weeks of increase, which trends like it did last year, where we saw substantial occupancy resets going in the late third quarter to the fourth quarter.
當然。我的意思是,我們追蹤的第一件事是我們與客戶的對話以及我們自己的入住率。如果你看一下我們的下半年指南,我們確實看到我們已經走出了谷底,並且已經經歷了幾週的增長,這種趨勢與去年一樣,我們看到在第三季度末到第四季度入住率大幅重置。
And so that underpins our guide. As far as when the industry will start to rebound, I think again, our customers' inventories are -- we feel about as well as they can be, while still servicing the consumer everybody is looking to stimulate new demand and interest rates and tariff deals getting finalized, both actives could act as stimuli for increased inventories.
這就是我們的指南的基礎。至於行業何時開始反彈,我再次認為,我們的客戶庫存 - 我們感覺他們狀況很好,同時仍然為消費者提供服務,每個人都在尋求刺激新的需求和利率以及關稅協議的最終確定,這兩項活動都可以刺激庫存增加。
Samir Khanal - Analyst
Samir Khanal - Analyst
Okay. Thank you.
好的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Todd Thomas, KeyBanc Capital Markets.
托馬斯 (Todd Thomas),KeyBanc 資本市場。
Todd Thomas - Analyst
Todd Thomas - Analyst
Hi, thanks. I guess two questions. One, just a follow-up. Are you able to provide for July, any detail around occupancy or some of the specific drivers around warehouse storage in the Services segment? Any specific updates regarding July specifically, it sounds like there was a little bit of a pickup here later in the month?
你好,謝謝。我想問兩個問題。第一,只是後續行動。您能否提供 7 月份有關入住率的詳細資訊或服務部門倉庫存放的一些具體驅動因素?關於 7 月份有什麼具體更新嗎,聽起來本月晚些時候情況會有所改善?
Second question though is around the dynamic between the softness that you experienced in the warehouse business relative to GIS, which grew 8% in the quarter. Can you talk about some of the growth drivers for GIS in the period and what's behind the sharp acceleration in the second half of the year?
第二個問題是關於您在倉庫業務中經歷的相對於 GIS 的疲軟之間的動態,GIS 本季度增長了 8%。您能否談談該時期 GIS 的一些成長動力以及下半年急劇加速背後的原因?
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. So we're just closing out July. But in terms of occupancy levels, we're back now above April, May, right? So it's back to that again, as you see in our chart, you start to move up. We just started moving up several later, right? And then you just have less months with more things in the warehouse, and that's what led to the guidance cut. But we are seeing what we expected, which is good to see.
當然。所以我們即將結束七月。但就入住率而言,我們現在已經回到了四月、五月的水平,對嗎?所以它又回到了那個狀態,正如你在我們的圖表中看到的那樣,你開始向上移動。我們只是後來才開始進步,對嗎?然後,倉庫裡的物品越來越多,而庫存卻越來越少,這就是導致預期下調的原因。但我們看到了我們所期望的,這是令人高興的。
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. And then we're just taking a more muted view on the slope of the trend (inaudible) balance of the year given that it happened late, and we're trying to be prudent with our guidance. On the GIS side, I got to say, I've never been more proud of our GIS team around the world. They're doing a fabulous job. We have better players on the field.
是的。然後,考慮到它發生得較晚,我們對今年趨勢(聽不清楚)平衡的斜率採取了更為謹慎的看法,並且我們正試圖謹慎地進行指導。在 GIS 方面,我必須說,我從未對我們遍布全球的 GIS 團隊感到如此自豪。他們做得非常出色。我們在場上有更好的球員。
It remains, as you guys know on the trucking side of the business on all the services we provide in our GIS group, which are very complementary to our warehousing business and very critical to our customers' total supply chain optimization. But this team is doing a phenomenal job. The sales team is doing a great job selling new business.
如你們所知,我們在卡車運輸業務方面為 GIS 集團提供的所有服務都與我們的倉儲業務相輔相成,對我們客戶的整個供應鏈優化至關重要。但這支團隊的表現非常出色。銷售團隊在銷售新業務方面表現出色。
And I think we're just doing a better job than ever talking to our customers about their end-to-end cold chain. And what we -- and some of them a few years ago didn't even know that we have these services and now we're the services have developed the team strengthened and the technology strengthened and the coupling of the warehouse with the GIS services has gotten stronger. And so I would expect this trend to continue for the foreseeable future as they're just gaining momentum.
我認為我們在與客戶討論端到端冷鏈方面做得比以往更好。幾年前,有些人甚至不知道我們有這些服務,而現在我們的服務已經發展起來,團隊得到了加強,技術得到了加強,倉庫與 GIS 服務的結合也變得更加緊密。因此我預計這種趨勢將在可預見的未來持續下去,因為它們才剛開始獲得發展動力。
Todd Thomas - Analyst
Todd Thomas - Analyst
All right. Thank you.
好的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Craig Mailman, Citi.
花旗銀行的克雷格‧梅爾曼 (Craig Mailman)。
Craig Mailman - Analyst
Craig Mailman - Analyst
Hey. Good morning, guys. Just want to circle back on inventories and kind of how you guys are viewing them going forward? I mean I just heard your comment that a pretty common refrain over here in the last couple of quarters from you and your peer that it doesn't feel like inventories can get any lower for your tenants and yet we're still seeing kind of occupancy from a nominal perspective stay pretty muted.
嘿。大家早安。只是想回顧一下庫存以及你們對未來庫存的看法?我的意思是,我剛剛聽到您的評論,在過去的幾個季度中,您和您的同事在這裡經常說,感覺您的租戶的庫存不會再低了,但從名義上看,我們仍然看到入住率保持相當低迷。
The low-end consumer is under pressure, they're shrinkflation. So even though people are spending the same amount, you're getting less what you're spending. You're seeing fast food companies like McDonald's, see tepid sales because the value proposition isn't there.
低端消費者面臨壓力,他們正在經歷縮水通膨。因此,儘管人們花費的金額相同,但您得到的卻比花費的少。你會看到,像麥當勞這樣的速食公司,由於缺乏價值主張,銷售表現不溫不火。
I guess, is it wishful thinking at this point to think that the trend to seasonality should be confused with an inflection in nominal inventory levels? I mean can't we have both where you get that seasonality, but you're just off a base that's not going to materially improve given the outlook and given the financial situation of a lot of people in the country?
我想,現在認為季節性趨勢應該與名義庫存水準的變化相混淆,這只是一廂情願的想法嗎?我的意思是,我們難道不能同時擁有這兩種情況嗎?即既有季節性,又有基礎,而考慮到前景和全國許多人的財務狀況,這種情況不會有實質性的改善?
I mean I'm just trying to kind of circle the square here because we're -- it just feels like the USDA data has been year-over-year negative for over two years. And yet when we hear from you and your peers, it's just [kind of] say things are going to get better that it doesn't happen, right? And the post-COVID world is just different. I don't know if it's technology improvements on the tenant side. I don't know if it's the shrinkflation, GLP-1s, whatever it is, but it just doesn't feel like the needle is moving back on inventory levels despite that consistent comment that it just doesn't feel like inventories could shrink anymore and still service the end user?
我的意思是,我只是想在這裡畫個圈,因為我們——感覺美國農業部的數據已經連續兩年同比下降了。然而,當我們聽到您和您的同事的聲音時,我們只是說事情會變得更好,但這種事情並沒有發生,對嗎?後疫情時代的世界已經完全不同了。我不知道這是否是租戶方面的技術改進。我不知道是不是因為縮減通膨、GLP-1 還是其他原因,但感覺庫存水準並沒有回升,儘管一直有人評論說庫存不可能再縮減,但仍然可以為最終用戶提供服務?
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So fair point, certainly. And our guide does not assumed any inflection in the underlying environment or that kind of general consumption inventory levels get better for the balance of this year. There's no doubt that consumer is still under pressure because of high food prices, high interest rates, uncertainty and that's putting pressure on overall food sales. The seasonality we talked about, we saw last year even in this top environment, and we're guiding to even more (inaudible) than we saw last year. And so we think we're being conservative.
所以,這確實是一個公平的觀點。我們的指南並不假設基本環境會出現任何變化,也不假設今年的整體消費庫存水準會有所改善。毫無疑問,由於食品價格高、利率高、不確定性等因素,消費者仍面臨壓力,這給整體食品銷售帶來了壓力。我們談到的季節性,即使在這種頂級環境下,去年我們也看到了,而且我們的指導甚至比去年看到的還要多(聽不清楚)。因此我們認為我們是保守的。
We're not depending on an inflection for all the reasons that you pointed out. We think long term, leading up to the 2020 -- call it, '22, fresh and frozen food consumer preference, it's shifting that direction. Consumers want to be healthy. We -- the majority of our food fits in that category. And we think that the long-term trend and the data -- that the people like (inaudible) and other organizations feel that there'll be growth in the long term. But we are bouncing off the bottom right now, and we're not trying to predict or dictate when we think that's going to change.
由於您指出的所有原因,我們並不依賴語調變化。我們從長遠角度考慮,到 2020 年,也就是 2022 年,新鮮和冷凍食品消費者的偏好正在轉變。消費者希望健康。我們——我們的大部分食物都屬於這一類。我們認為長期趨勢和數據——像(聽不清楚)這樣的人和其他組織都認為長期內會出現成長。但我們目前正從底部反彈,我們不會試圖預測或決定何時情況會改變。
But that said, our -- we saw sequential improvement in our results in the first and second quarter. We expect to see that in third and fourth despite the challenging environment, the technology we're putting in place we think is a game changer for our business. Our GIS segment is doing very well. We're doing great job controlling costs in every aspect of our business around the world.
但話雖如此,我們的第一季和第二季的業績都有所改善。儘管環境充滿挑戰,我們仍希望看到第三和第四名,但我們認為我們正在實施的技術將改變我們的業務。我們的 GIS 部門表現非常好。我們在全球業務的各個方面都出色地控制著成本。
And we think our network, our technology, our customer relationships, our GIS service offering puts us in a great position to win in the long term. And we do still feel, despite the fact we don't know when, that volumes at the consumer of fresh and frozen will start to grow again at some point.
我們認為,我們的網路、我們的技術、我們的客戶關係、我們的 GIS 服務使我們在長期內處於有利地位。儘管我們不知道具體時間,但我們仍然覺得,新鮮和冷凍食品的消費量最終會在某個時候再次開始成長。
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, that's right. Everything you said, which I think is fair point, is currently reflected in our numbers. So that's what's been happening. We are seeing things getting better slowly. We're doing everything we can on our end to control what we can control.
是的,沒錯。我認為您所說的一切都是正確的,目前已反映在我們的數字中。這就是正在發生的事情。我們看到情況正在慢慢好轉。我們正在盡一切努力控制我們能夠控制的事情。
And so I think any change to any of the things that you said is upside opportunity, and we're not expecting any of that to happen this year in our guide. But we do think over the long term, there is quite a bit of upside opportunity, but we're going to wait to see it happen.
因此,我認為您所說的任何事情的任何改變都是上行機會,而我們預計今年在我們的指南中不會發生任何這樣的事情。但我們確實認為,從長遠來看,存在相當大的上行機會,但我們將拭目以待。
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. And we think we'll leave this year with good momentum. We think the (inaudible) for each quarter and the momentum going into next year. Obviously, we're not guiding next year right now, but we good about all the internal initiatives we're doing, our new business with customers the way we're -- our partnerships with customers are only strengthening and we think that will benefit us long term.
是的。我們相信今年我們將以良好的勢頭結束。我們認為每季的(聽不清楚)以及明年的發展動能。顯然,我們現在還沒有為明年做出指引,但我們對正在進行的所有內部舉措、與客戶的新業務以及我們與客戶的合作關係不斷加強感到滿意,我們認為這將使我們長期受益。
Craig Mailman - Analyst
Craig Mailman - Analyst
Great. Thank you.
偉大的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Mike Carroll, RBC.
加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的 Mike Carroll。
Michael Carroll - Analyst
Michael Carroll - Analyst
Hey, thanks. Greg, can you provide some color on where cold storage companies are currently trading or at least being valued in the private market? I mean has private market valuations changed as much as we've seen in the public markets? I guess what's the right valuation metric that these assets are traded at?
嘿,謝謝。格雷格,您能否介紹一下冷藏公司目前的交易情況,或至少在私人市場上的估值?我的意思是私人市場估值的變化是否和我們在公開市場看到的一樣大?我猜這些資產交易的正確估值指標是什麼?
I mean, should we be thinking about EV-to-EBITDA ranges? And I know it's -- each asset is different, each company is different, but what's the typical EV-to-EBITDA range that coal storage companies are trading in the private market today or at least if [trade start] like where do they typically trade at?
我的意思是,我們應該考慮 EV-to-EBITDA 範圍嗎?我知道——每項資產都不同,每家公司都不同,但目前煤炭儲存公司在私人市場上交易的典型 EV-to-EBITDA 範圍是多少,或者至少如果 [交易開始] 它們通常在哪裡交易?
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I mean it's obviously an evolving metric. But right now, they're probably trading higher than the higher (multiple speakers) in multiples. Yeah, I think we're trading at a 55% to 60% of NAV. We think it's obviously undervalued --
我的意思是,這顯然是一個不斷發展的指標。但目前,他們的交易價格可能比更高(多個發言者)的倍數還要高。是的,我認為我們的交易價格是資產淨值的 55% 到 60%。我們認為它明顯被低估了--
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. The private markets take a longer-term view, right? And so the quality of the assets, but just the long-term growth of this industry, yes, there's definitely a disconnect. Now as you know, we've deployed a bunch of capital. I think we're in a good place.
是的。私人市場有更長遠的眼光,對嗎?因此,除了資產品質之外,這個產業的長期成長也存在著脫節。正如您所知,我們已經投入了大量資金。我認為我們處境很好。
We've got a lot still to come, as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, in terms of NOI that's still developing -- in terms of Tyson and the acquisition. So we've deployed a lot of capital at attractive multiples. Now that that's going to flow through our results, we're going to do our best here to improve sequentially and then we'll continue to monitor the markets. But there's certainly, at this point in time, the sort of true long-term value of our industry is not -- we don't feel shown in the public valuations than private a different story.
正如我們在準備好的演講中提到的那樣,就仍在發展的 NOI 而言,就泰森和收購而言,我們還有很多事情要做。因此,我們以頗具吸引力的倍數部署了大量資本。現在這將影響到我們的業績,我們將盡最大努力逐步改進,然後繼續關注市場。但可以肯定的是,目前,我們產業的真正長期價值還沒有反映出來——我們並不認為公開估值與私人估值有差異。
Michael Carroll - Analyst
Michael Carroll - Analyst
Like what's the typical EV-to-EBITDA range that assets trade in the private market, I guess, compared to your valuation, I guess, where does that typically go?
例如,與你的估值相比,私人市場上資產交易的典型 EV-to-EBITDA 範圍是多少?我猜,它通常會達到什麼程度?
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
It really depends on region. There's so many dynamics, but they're things trading double-digit EBITDA to 15, 20 times EBITDA that we see in smaller transactions in Europe and other places. It's a pretty big disconnect as well.
這確實取決於地區。有很多動態,但它們的交易額是兩位數的 EBITDA 到 EBITDA 的 15 倍、20 倍,我們在歐洲和其他地方的小額交易中看到過這種情況。這也是一個相當大的脫節。
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, wide range, I would say.
是的,我想說範圍很廣。
Operator
Operator
Vikram Malhotra, Mizuho.
瑞穗的維克拉姆·馬洛特拉 (Vikram Malhotra)。
Vikram Malhotra - Analyst
Vikram Malhotra - Analyst
Thanks for the questions. I have two clarifications. I guess this first one, and I'm still struggling to get a sense of like how conservative you truly are in the back half, given kind of we're still seeing elevated inventory levels. Do you mind just from that chart you've provided, like what is your actual occupancy build just a number sequentially into the second half, whether physical or economic, if you can give?
感謝您的提問。我有兩點澄清。我想這是第一個,考慮到我們仍然看到庫存水準上升,我仍然很難理解你在下半年到底有多保守。您是否介意僅從您提供的圖表中,按順序列出下半年的實際入住率(無論是物理的還是經濟的),您可以給出嗎?
And compare that to -- how does that compare to, say, like recover historical trends, just like how conservative you are, like what -- and give us the exact -- like occupancy from that chart? And then just second question is on G&A. Your G&A did come in, I guess it was a big benefit in 2Q versus we anticipated and the second half assumes a big pickup. So cash G&A, like what is driving that in the second half?
並將其與——與恢復歷史趨勢相比如何,就像你有多保守,像什麼——並給我們確切的——像圖表中的佔用率?第二個問題是關於一般及行政事務 (G&A) 的。您的 G&A 確實進來了,我想這比我們預期的第二季度有了很大的好處,並且預計下半年會有大幅回升。那麼現金 G&A 的推動因素是什麼呢?
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So slide 5 -- I mean that's exactly -- to answer your question, that's what slide 5 is here for. So 2015 and 2019 is your pre-COVID USDA seasonality. That's the green line. What we are embedding at the midpoint of our guide here, which is, you could look at the charts, basically, call it, 75% plus or minus in Q3, 78% in Q4.
是的。因此投影片 5 — — 我的意思是這正是 — — 回答您的問題,這就是投影片 5 的目的。因此,2015 年和 2019 年是新冠疫情之前的 USDA 季節性。那是綠線。我們在這裡將指南的中間點嵌入其中,也就是說,你可以查看圖表,基本上稱之為第三季加減 75%,第四季 78%。
So that has muted seasonality compared to history. We think it's prudent like we're not trying to be overly conservative or overly aggressive. This is what we see right now. Our team is going to work hard to beat these numbers. And in terms of G&A, again, we're managing the company prudently.
因此與歷史相比,季節性減弱。我們認為這是謹慎的,因為我們不想過於保守或過於激進。這就是我們現在所看到的。我們的團隊將努力超越這些數字。就一般及行政費用而言,我們再次謹慎地管理公司。
And we have -- we think there's room to grow the business quite a bit at this level G&A, right? We expect to grow the business over the long term. We think we'll get great leverage in the short term. We're certainly going to look everywhere and to make sure we're investing the right amount in the right areas, and that's something that never changes. It's something we do continue to work on.
而且我們認為,在這一水準的 G&A 下,業務還有相當大的成長空間,對嗎?我們希望長期實現業務成長。我們認為我們將在短期內獲得巨大的槓桿作用。我們肯定會到處尋找,確保我們在正確的領域投入正確的金額,這是永遠不會改變的。這是我們將繼續努力的事情。
Operator
Operator
Blaine Heck, Wells Fargo.
布萊恩·赫克,富國銀行。
Blaine Heck - Analyst
Blaine Heck - Analyst
Thanks. Good morning. Just following up on guidance, can you give us a little bit more color on what's driving the AFFO decline expected in the third quarter versus Q2 despite the increased occupancy, same-store EBITDA, is that all driven by CapEx seasonality? Or is there anything else going on there? And then with respect to the fourth quarter, it's a pretty wide range between $0.78 and $0.94. So can you just share your thoughts on what key drivers would result in AFFO coming in towards the upper or lower end of that range?
謝謝。早安.只是跟進指導,您能否向我們提供更多細節,說明儘管入住率和同店 EBITDA 有所增加,但預計第三季度 AFFO 相對於第二季度仍會下降的原因是什麼,這是否都是由資本支出季節性所驅動的?或者那裡還有其他事情發生嗎?就第四季而言,其區間相當寬,在0.78美元到0.94美元之間。您能否分享一下您認為哪些關鍵驅動因素會導致AFFO接近該區間的上限或下限?
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. Q3 is just timing of CapEx. So we -- some of the CapEx we expect in Q2 pushed into Q3. I think we're still working to get better at being even every quarter. We used to have an annual budget process. The team is doing a great job, but we're just -- there's still some seasonality in maintenance CapEx, which over time will work to remove, but we definitely have higher maintenance CapEx in Q3 and Q4 (inaudible) numbers.
是的。Q3 只是資本支出的時間。因此,我們預計第二季的部分資本支出將延後到第三季。我認為我們仍在努力使每個季度都更加均衡。我們過去有一個年度預算流程。團隊做得很好,但是我們只是 - 維護資本支出仍然存在一些季節性,隨著時間的推移,這種季節性會逐漸消除,但我們在第三季度和第四季度的維護資本支出肯定更高(聽不清)數字。
I mean, yeah. In terms of the range, I mean, I think there's -- it really depends on occupancy. That's the biggest driver. As Greg mentioned, price is stable. Our cost controls are in place. Our team will work hard if occupancy is lower to take out costs to make sure we can still produce as high as EBITDA (inaudible) possibly can. But we just thought it was prudent.
我的意思是,是的。就範圍而言,我的意思是,我認為這確實取決於入住率。這是最大的驅動力。正如格雷格所說,價格穩定。我們的成本控制已經到位。如果入住率較低,我們的團隊將努力降低成本,以確保我們仍能實現盡可能高的 EBITDA(聽不清楚)。但我們只是認為這是謹慎的。
Because, again, you're in an industry here that's inflecting from a seasonality standpoint, and it's just a week or two change can drive very different results. And so we wanted to give you, again, we're trying to be as transparent as we can and show you, here's what we see. Here's what we're assuming. And then obviously, people can make their own determinations from there. But that's our goal of this call.
因為,再說一次,你所處的行業從季節性的角度來看正在發生變化,僅僅一兩週的變化就可能導致截然不同的結果。因此,我們想再次向您展示,我們正努力做到盡可能透明,並向您展示我們所看到的。以下是我們的假設。顯然,人們可以從那裡做出自己的決定。但這正是我們此次通話的目的。
Blaine Heck - Analyst
Blaine Heck - Analyst
Okay. Thanks.
好的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Caitlin Burrows, Goldman Sachs.
凱特琳·伯羅斯,高盛。
Caitlin Burrows - Analyst
Caitlin Burrows - Analyst
Hi, good morning. Maybe just back to the private market valuation discussion. I know you guys have only been public for a year. But I guess, how do you think about the option of being private versus public? And do you think it -- or under what circumstances or do you think it would be better for shareholders to take the company private?
嗨,早安。也許只是回到私人市場估值討論。我知道你們才上市一年。但我想,您如何看待私有化與公有化之間的選擇?您認為——或者在什麼情況下,或者您認為股東將公司私有化會更好?
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Certainly, it's been a -- I mentioned in the prepared remarks, I think we went public at a very interesting time as the industry was resetting. That said, I think getting our investment-grade rating, having access to the capital markets. We're better -- we're still better in the public space despite tough quarters like this.
當然,我在準備好的發言中提到過,我認為我們上市的時機非常有趣,因為整個行業正在重置。話雖如此,我認為獲得投資等級評級,就能進入資本市場。我們變得更好了——儘管經歷了像這樣的艱難時期,我們在公共領域的表現仍然更好。
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, I think that's right. Getting the cost of capital, having the ability to issue equity moving forward for accretive opportunities. We continue to do that. Like we're going to look hard at how do we compound and grow this company and having that flexibility to be an investment-grade company is huge. So I think the future is very bright even though, obviously, the first year has been tough.
是的,我認為是這樣。獲得資本成本,有能力發行股票以獲得增值機會。我們將繼續這樣做。就像我們將認真研究如何使這家公司複合成長,並擁有成為投資級公司的靈活性一樣重要。因此,儘管第一年顯然很艱難,但我認為未來非常光明。
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I mean we -- if you look at our guidance, we see sequential improvement. We think our mission is to help the stock rebound through our performance as fast as it's come down. And we think we can do that. We think we're very well positioned. And even at the current deflated stock level, we're still seeing accretive deals in the marketplace where we can generate alpha through those deals. So we're -- there's still a ton of opportunities even at these levels.
是的。我的意思是──如果你看一下我們的指導,我們會看到連續的改善。我們認為我們的使命是透過我們的表現幫助股價盡快反彈。我們認為我們可以做到這一點。我們認為我們處於非常有利的位置。即使在當前低迷的股票水準下,我們仍然看到市場上存在增值交易,我們可以透過這些交易產生阿爾法收益。所以,即使在這些層面上,仍然有大量的機會。
Caitlin Burrows - Analyst
Caitlin Burrows - Analyst
Got it. Thanks.
知道了。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Omotayo Okusanya, Deutsche Bank.
Omotayo Okusanya,德意志銀行。
Omotayo Okusanya - Analyst
Omotayo Okusanya - Analyst
Yes. Good morning. We talked a lot about just customer trends in the USDA data and -- just kind of curious, the occupancy declines and everything you're seeing in regards to a more tempered outlook. Is this all US centric? Or are you also seeing similar trends in your international business as well?
是的。早安.我們討論了很多有關美國農業部數據中的客戶趨勢,只是有點好奇,入住率下降以及您所看到的有關更加溫和的前景的一切。這一切都是以美國為中心的嗎?或者您在國際業務中也看到了類似的趨勢?
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. We're really -- I mean, we want to show you USDA data because it's something people look at. It's just -- it represents the trend. But the point is that it's not necessarily our entire portfolio that track nor US, for that matter. I mean, it's about as we put on the slide, about 40% of our portfolios reflect in USDA trends, but there is seasonality throughout the world.
是的。我們真的——我的意思是,我們想向你們展示美國農業部的數據,因為這是人們會關注的東西。這只是——它代表了一種趨勢。但關鍵在於,這並不一定是我們的整個投資組合或美國都追蹤這種情況。我的意思是,正如我們在幻燈片上所說的那樣,我們大約 40% 的投資組合反映了美國農業部的趨勢,但世界各地都存在季節性。
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. I think we're seeing inventories hold up better in other regions, both in Europe and Australia, which is our largest market in (inaudible). So the US is driving the year-over-year occupancy decline.
是的。我認為,我們看到其他地區的庫存狀況更好,包括歐洲和澳大利亞,後者是我們最大的市場(聽不清楚)。因此,美國是導致飯店入住率年減的原因。
Omotayo Okusanya - Analyst
Omotayo Okusanya - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Greg, Scotia Capital.
格雷格,蘇格蘭資本。
Greg McGinniss - Equity Analyst
Greg McGinniss - Equity Analyst
Hey. Good morning. I'm curious on this occupancy and whether the lower seasonal occupancy you're experiencing is ratable across all categories? Or if there's specific categories that are under more pressure. And if you could comment on the more import/export focused category specifically as well, that would be appreciated.
嘿。早安.我對這個入住率感到好奇,以及您所經歷的較低季節性入住率是否適用於所有類別?或是否有特定類別面臨更大的壓力。如果您能針對更側重進出口的類別做出具體評論,我們將不勝感激。
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So it is pretty broad-based, I would say, the pressure we're seeing. I'll comment a little bit about tariffs. We're certainly seeing chicken sell well and the beef herd is low. Those are two categories that are mixed. Seafood, the inventories have stabilized, but the end sales are at a pretty low historic level.
所以我想說,我們看到的壓力是相當廣泛的。我將對關稅發表一些評論。我們確實看到雞肉賣得很好,而牛群數量很少。這是兩個混合的類別。海鮮方面,庫存已經穩定,但最終銷售處於歷史較低水平。
And a lot of these are, of course, out of the import export side are a result of tariff policies. Our customers are constantly redirecting product around the world and kind of managing through with their (inaudible) on the tariff policies. One of the things that we were hoping to see as a result of tariff negotiations is to open up new markets for US exports as the US is the most efficient producer of food in the world.
當然,其中很多都是進出口方面的關稅政策造成的。我們的客戶不斷地將產品轉移到世界各地,並透過(聽不清楚)關稅政策進行管理。我們希望透過關稅談判看到的結果之一是為美國出口開闢新的市場,因為美國是世界上最高效的食品生產國。
I mean, for example, agriculture and particularly proteins, as one of America's last great exports. The US is extremely competitive. I think the protein space are on the world stage and many of these markets have been either partially closed or closed to US protein imports in recent -- until recent trade deals are finalized and we're closed historically.
我的意思是,例如農業,特別是蛋白質,是美國最後的出口產品之一。美國競爭極為激烈。我認為蛋白質領域是世界舞台上的,其中許多市場最近要么部分關閉,要么對美國蛋白質進口關閉——直到最近的貿易協議最終達成,我們歷史上一直處於關閉狀態。
So as an example, the UK and Australia just opened up their markets to you have beef imports if these deals get closed that are likely going to be in the near term here. And while that won't stimulate a lot of new exports in the short term because [beef are still low] in the midterm, long term certainly could. And we're looking for more deals like this to help stimulate production in the US.
舉個例子,英國和澳洲剛剛開放了牛肉進口市場,如果這些交易達成,那麼很可能在短期內就會實現。雖然這在短期內不會刺激大量新的出口,因為[牛肉價格仍然很低]但從中期來看,長期來看肯定會有效果。我們正在尋求更多類似的交易來幫助刺激美國的生產。
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. So to quantify, we did go through and really try to quantify our tariff impact in all of our review calls. We got about $10 million, our estimate NOI headwind in the second half. That's embedded in the guidance on the occupancy chart that you could see. So we do have some locations that have more inventory because of tariffs. But then again, enough that have lower to lead to a headwind overall. So we did want to give that number to give everyone a sense of sort of what we've been seeing.
是的。因此,為了量化,我們確實在所有審查電話中都嘗試量化關稅影響。我們獲得了約 1000 萬美元,預計下半年的淨利潤將面臨阻力。這包含在您所看到的佔用率圖表的指導中。因此,由於關稅的原因,我們確實有一些地方擁有更多的庫存。但話又說回來,低位足以導致整體逆風。所以我們確實想給出這個數字,讓每個人都了解我們所看到的情況。
Greg McGinniss - Equity Analyst
Greg McGinniss - Equity Analyst
Okay. Thank you. Are you not worried about the use of like growth hormone in our beef that's going to limit exports?
好的。謝謝。您不擔心我們的牛肉使用生長激素會限制出口嗎?
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I think the protein space will adapt to that and figure it out [correctly]
我認為蛋白質空間將會適應這一點並解決這個問題[正確]
Greg McGinniss - Equity Analyst
Greg McGinniss - Equity Analyst
Okay. Thank you.
好的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Michael Mueller, JPMorgan.
摩根大通的邁克爾·穆勒。
Michael Mueller - Analyst
Michael Mueller - Analyst
Yeah, hi. Can you talk about the strategy to manage interest expense going forward after the caps and swaps burn off at year-end?
是的,你好。您能否談談在年底上限和掉期消失後管理未來利息支出的策略?
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, for sure. So we did the bond deal. We did a new swap here just recently. So we are actively managing it. There is about a $10 million per quarter headwind in 2026 versus 2025 because of the expiring swaps. So we benefited a lot from them.
是的,當然。所以我們進行了債券交易。我們最近剛在這裡進行了一次新的交換。因此我們正在積極管理它。由於掉期到期,2026 年與 2025 年相比每季將面臨約 1,000 萬美元的逆風。所以我們從他們身上受益匪淺。
We're glad we did on they're expiring, and we are working hard to mitigate that through a number of different areas, the bond deal, [chicken deal] investment-grade markets, we have the opportunity to do potentially financing in different currencies. And we'll continue to do all we can to make sure we have the lowest cost of capital.
我們很高興在它們到期時採取了行動,我們正在努力透過多個不同領域、債券交易、[雞肉交易]投資級市場來緩解這種情況,我們有機會以不同的貨幣進行融資。我們將繼續竭盡全力確保我們的資本成本最低。
Michael Mueller - Analyst
Michael Mueller - Analyst
And real quick as a follow-up. Was the new swap you mentioned was that just on the recent quarter and how significant is it?
並迅速跟進。您提到的新掉期是否只是最近一個季度發生的,其重要性如何?
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
$750 million. I think it's about 3.2%.
7.5億美元。我認為大約是3.2%。
Michael Mueller - Analyst
Michael Mueller - Analyst
Okay. Thanks.
好的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Nick Thillman, Baird.
尼克·蒂爾曼,貝爾德。
Nicholas Thillman - Analyst
Nicholas Thillman - Analyst
Hey. Good morning. Greg, maybe just wanted to get your comments on what you're seeing from some of the smaller operators in the space today, what you're seeing they're doing from like a pricing standpoint? Are you seeing them starting to be under more pressure than you? Do you see them exiting the market? I guess, a little commentary because it is you and a larger player that have the small market share, but curious on kind of the more fragmented part of the industry.
嘿。早安.格雷格,也許你只是想聽聽你對目前該領域一些小型業者的看法,從定價的角度來看,你認為他們在做什麼?你是否發現他們開始承受比你更大的壓力?您認為他們會退出市場嗎?我想,這是一點評論,因為您和一個更大的參與者擁有較小的市場份額,但對行業中較為分散的部分感到好奇。
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I mean there's obviously a number of new competitors. There is -- there has been some discounting going on, and some are more aggressive than others. Most are very rational on price, I'd say. And there's a few that are discounting in areas where supply is greater than demand.
是的。我的意思是顯然有很多新的競爭對手。確實存在一些折扣,而且有些折扣幅度比其他折扣更大。我想說,大多數人對於價格的態度都是非常理性的。在供應大於需求的地區,有些商店甚至會打折。
I mean I think, as I mentioned, we see the waning of new supply coming online and demand increasing for any reasons that we already talked about, will probably be the primary driver of that absorption over time. But also both us and another company are consolidating buildings, which are taking some capacity out of the market.
我的意思是,正如我所提到的,我們看到新供應的減少和需求的增加,由於我們已經討論過的任何原因,這可能是隨著時間的推移吸收的主要驅動力。但我們和另一家公司都在合併建築,這會佔用一些市場容量。
Also, there's a lot of old inventory in the US and geographies around the world that's becoming obsolete quickly and will come offline in the coming years, which will help offset some of the supply that's come online in the last couple of years.
此外,美國和世界各地有大量舊庫存,這些庫存正在迅速過時並將在未來幾年內下線,這將有助於抵消過去幾年上線的部分供應。
Nicholas Thillman - Analyst
Nicholas Thillman - Analyst
Helpful. Thank you.
很有幫助。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Vince Tibone, Green Street.
文斯提博內 (Vince Tibone),綠街。
Vince Tibone - Analyst
Vince Tibone - Analyst
Hi. Good morning. Could you discuss the current rollout plan for LinOS over the next several years? And also like what percentage of your facilities are you targeting for LinOS, is it all of them? And then what is it just like a realistic implementation timeline to get all these potential efficiencies flowing through the portfolio?
你好。早安.您能討論一下未來幾年 LinOS 的推廣計畫嗎?還有,您計劃將 LinOS 用於哪些設施,是全部設施嗎?那麼,讓所有這些潛在效率流經投資組合的現實實施時間表是怎麼樣的呢?
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. Well, I mean, our (inaudible) is pretty fast. I mean, as Greg mentioned, during the pilots, we quickly see gains within weeks.
是的。嗯,我的意思是,我們的(聽不清楚)非常快。我的意思是,正如格雷格所提到的,在試點期間,我們很快就在幾週內看到了收益。
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. We see gains generally the first week, which is amazing for a new technology I think, in any aspect of any business. But as far as the implementation, we'll share more later in the year on our -- we are working based on how excited we are about it. We are literally working every day on how we can further accelerate our implementation. We'll have 10 done this year, and we look to dramatically increase that number in the coming years.
是的。我們通常在第一周就看到收益,我認為這對於一項新技術來說,對於任何業務的任何方面來說,這都是令人驚奇的。但就實施而言,我們將在今年稍後分享更多資訊——我們正在根據我們對此的興奮程度開展工作。我們實際上每天都在努力研究如何進一步加快實施速度。今年我們將完成 10 項,並希望在未來幾年大幅增加這個數字。
It will probably take us two or three years to get the majority of our network converted. And again, we're working really, really hard to accelerate that given how excited we are at (multiple speakers) Yeah, the majority of our conventional facilities eventually will be on LinOS.
我們可能需要兩到三年的時間才能完成大部分網路的轉換。再說一次,我們正在非常非常努力地加速這一進程,因為我們對此感到非常興奮(多位演講者)是的,我們的大多數常規設施最終都將在 LinOS 上。
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Absolutely. And new acquisitions will go immediately on to LinOS, including the Tyson ones we just bought. So this will provide more accretion for future M&A. It will make our new builds more productive and transform our existing conventional facilities. We're very excited, and I know we've been talking about it for the past year, but we'll start to have benefit in our numbers in '26, and it will accelerate from there.
絕對地。新收購的產品將立即轉移到 LinOS 上,包括我們剛收購的 Tyson 產品。因此這將為未來的併購提供更多的累積。它將使我們的新建築更加高效,並改造我們現有的傳統設施。我們非常興奮,我知道我們在過去一年中一直在談論這個問題,但我們將在 26 年開始在數字上受益,並且從那時起加速成長。
And as Greg mentioned, around NAREIT, we plan to give a bunch of detail around this. We'll probably do a special session around NAREIT to provide a lot more detail and color on what we're seeing.
正如 Greg 所提到的,圍繞著 NAREIT,我們計劃提供大量相關細節。我們可能會圍繞 NAREIT 舉辦一次特別會議,以提供更多有關我們所看到內容的細節和資訊。
Vince Tibone - Analyst
Vince Tibone - Analyst
Great. That's really helpful. Thank you. Maybe just a quick follow-up. Is there any incremental capital we should be thinking about with this broader rollout? Or it's really more of a workflow system, the tech investment has already been made. If you can just talk a little bit about is there a CapEx associated with this?
偉大的。這真的很有幫助。謝謝。也許只是一個快速的跟進。在這次更廣泛的推廣中,我們是否應該考慮增加資本?或者它實際上更像是一個工作流程系統,技術投資已經完成。您能否稍微談談這是否涉及資本支出?
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I mean, majority of the second [investment] hasn't made, there's some operating costs when you're going and having people on site and training people. But it's not material. You should not expect a CapEx bubble from LinOS implementation.
是的。我的意思是,第二筆投資的大部分還沒完成,當你去現場安排人員並培訓人員時,會產生一些營運成本。但這不是物質的。您不應該期望 LinOS 實施會產生資本支出泡沫。
Vince Tibone - Analyst
Vince Tibone - Analyst
Great. Thank you.
偉大的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Daniel Guglielmo, Capital One Securities.
丹尼爾·古列爾莫(Daniel Guglielmo),Capital One Securities。
Daniel Guglielmo - Analyst
Daniel Guglielmo - Analyst
Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. The labor expense line accelerated this quarter versus being flattish last quarter. Is there anything to call out there? Are there certain regions or countries where it's been harder to keep employees or where labor rates are rising faster than expected?
大家好。感謝您回答我的問題。本季勞動力費用線加速成長,上一季則持平。那裡有什麼東西需要呼叫嗎?是否有某些地區或國家在留住員工方面變得更加困難,或者勞動力價格上漲的速度超出了預期?
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Greg Lehmkuhl - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So our wage increases are implemented for the majority of our markets on April 1. That's probably what you're seeing. That said, we -- in our guidance and what we're seeing is continued productivity improvement.
因此,我們的大多數市場將於 4 月 1 日實施薪資上漲。這可能就是您所看到的。也就是說,在我們的指導下,我們看到的是生產力的持續提升。
Even outside of LinOS, we have a ton of levers we're pulling and a myriad of productivity initiatives that impact that labor line outside of just the LinOS that always talk about to increase both labor productivity, things like daily labor planning is being implemented throughout the US to start with.
即使在 LinOS 之外,我們也採取了大量的措施和生產力舉措,這些舉措不僅影響 LinOS 以外的勞動力線,也總是談論提高勞動生產力,例如每天的勞動力計劃正在美國各地實施。
We're implementing a next-generation labor management system that both of these things are just designed to match the labor dynamically to the facility activity. And so we're seeing good productivity trends even before the LinOS implementation and those act is a perfect foundation for the LinOS rollout as we decelerate next year.
我們正在實施下一代勞動力管理系統,這兩個系統都是為了將勞動力與設施活動動態匹配而設計的。因此,我們在 LinOS 實施之前就看到了良好的生產力趨勢,這些措施為我們明年減速時推出 LinOS 奠定了完美的基礎。
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
Robert Crisci - Chief Financial Officer
And same warehouse labor was down year-over-year, same warehouse cost of operations was down year-over-year.
同一倉庫的勞動成本較去年同期下降,同一倉庫的營運成本較去年同期下降。
Daniel Guglielmo - Analyst
Daniel Guglielmo - Analyst
Okay. Thank you.
好的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
That concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Evan Barbosa, for closing remarks.
我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把發言時間交給埃文·巴博薩先生,請他致最後發言。
Evan Barbosa - Vice President, Investor Relations
Evan Barbosa - Vice President, Investor Relations
On behalf of the entire Lineage team, thank you for joining us today and for your interest in Lineage. We look forward to speaking with you on our next quarterly earnings call.
我代表整個 Lineage 團隊感謝您今天的加入我們以及您對 Lineage 的關注。我們期待在下次季度收益電話會議上與您交談。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。