林德集團 (LIN) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Linde plc Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Teleconference. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Juan Pelaez, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

各位好，感謝您稍候。歡迎參加林德（Linde plc）2021 年第三季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）請注意，今天的會議將被錄音。（接線員指示）現在我想將會議交給投資人關係主管 Juan Pelaez 先生。先生，請開始。

Thanks, David. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for attending our 2021 third quarter earnings call and webcast. I'm Juan Pelaez, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined this morning by Steve Angel, Chief Executive Officer; Matt White, Chief Financial Officer; and Sanjiv Lamba, Chief Operating Officer.

謝謝你，David。各位早安，感謝各位參加我們 2021 年第三季財報電話會議與網路直播。我是投資人關係主管 Juan Pelaez，今天早上與我一同出席的有：執行長 Steve Angel、財務長 Matt White，以及營運長 Sanjiv Lamba。

Today's presentation materials are available on our website at linde.com in the Investors section. Please read the forward-looking statement disclosure on Page 2 of the slides and note that it applies to all statements made during this teleconference. The reconciliations of the adjusted numbers are in the appendix of this presentation. Steve will provide some opening remarks, and then Sanjiv and Matt will give an update on Linde's business outlook and third quarter performance, after which, we will wrap up with Q&A. Let me turn the call over to Steve.

今天的簡報資料已公布於我們網站 linde.com 的「投資人」專區。請閱讀投影片第 2 頁的前瞻性陳述揭露，並注意其適用於本次電話會議期間所做的所有陳述。調整後數字的調節表列於本簡報的附錄。Steve 將先做開場致詞，接著 Sanjiv 與 Matt 將更新林德的業務展望與第三季表現，之後我們將進行問答。現在把電話交給 Steve。

Thanks, Juan, and good morning, everyone. Linde employees delivered another solid quarter, continuing Q2's record EPS performance, despite increasingly challenging market conditions. Operating cash flow and return on capital reached record levels, and our project backlog nearly doubled, providing a strong foundation for high-quality, long-term growth.

謝謝你，Juan，各位早安。林德員工再度交出穩健的一季成果，儘管市場環境愈發具挑戰性，仍延續第二季每股盈餘（EPS）創紀錄的表現。營運現金流與資本報酬率達到歷史新高，而我們的專案在手訂單（backlog）幾乎倍增，為高品質、長期成長奠定堅實基礎。

We also stepped up our commitment to reducing our greenhouse gases emissions footprint, and Sanjiv will share that road map with you. But frankly, this isn't something new. It's what we committed to our shareholders since the merger and had been delivering on ever since, irrespective of the macro environment. Most of you know this, but I think it bears repeating: our operating culture runs deep at Linde, our people take great pride in demonstrating continuous improvement across the key operating metrics in their business. The best day of the month for our management team is when we review the operating performance of each of our regional business units.

我們也加大了對降低溫室氣體排放足跡的承諾，Sanjiv 將與各位分享相關路線圖。但坦白說，這並不是新鮮事。自合併以來，我們就對股東做出這項承諾，並且一路以來持續交付成果，不受總體環境影響。多數人都知道，但我認為值得再強調一次：林德的營運文化根深蒂固，我們的同仁以在各自業務的關鍵營運指標上展現持續改善為榮。對管理團隊而言，每個月最棒的一天，就是我們檢視各區域事業單位營運績效的那一天。

This is what we do for fun in Danbury, among other things. While I'm sure you've seen the announcement earlier this week where I will become the Chairman of the Board, and Sanjiv will become CEO effective March 1. His appointment is the culmination of a diligent 3-year succession planning process, in which Sanjiv clearly demonstrated he was the right choice to lead this company going forward. I will continue to provide guidance, both from the perspective of a Director and a significant shareholder. But my primary responsibility shifts to chairing the Board of Directors, while Sanjiv takes over day-to-day management of the company.

在丹伯里（Danbury），這就是我們的樂趣之一。各位應該已看到本週稍早的公告：我將出任董事會主席，而 Sanjiv 將自 3 月 1 日起出任執行長。他的任命是我們嚴謹的 3 年接班規劃流程的成果，Sanjiv 清楚展現他是帶領公司邁向未來的最佳人選。我將持續提供指導，無論是以董事身分，或以重要股東的角度。但我的主要職責將轉為主持董事會，而 Sanjiv 將接手公司日常營運管理。

Supporting Sanjiv is a highly capable and experienced leadership team. I have been CEO for 15 years, and I have never felt better about how the company is positioned. Obviously, our strategy is working well and the team is executing at a high level. Some say we are a well-oiled machine. I wouldn't disagree. We are a company for all seasons, and I'm confident Linde's best days lie ahead. Before handing off to Sanjiv, I would like to take a moment and thank Wolfgang Reitzle for his partnership and bringing our highly successful merger to fruition, and our directors and investors for their continuing support.

支持 Sanjiv 的是一支能力卓越且經驗豐富的領導團隊。我擔任執行長已 15 年，從未像現在這樣對公司的定位感到更有信心。顯然，我們的策略運作良好，團隊也以高水準在執行。有些人說我們是一部運轉順暢的機器，我不反對。我們是一家能適應各種景氣循環的公司，我相信林德最好的日子仍在前方。在交棒給 Sanjiv 之前，我想花點時間感謝 Wolfgang Reitzle 的合作，促成我們極為成功的合併圓滿完成，也感謝董事們與投資人持續的支持。

Lastly, I want to thank our employees worldwide for creating the leading industrial gases and engineering company in the world. I'll now hand the call over to Sanjiv.

最後，我要感謝全球的員工，打造出世界領先的工業氣體與工程公司。現在我把電話交給 Sanjiv。

Thank you, Steve. I'm honored to be given the opportunity to lead this outstanding company into the future. I appreciate your confidence and support over the years. Before I jump into the slides, I wanted to build on Steve's comment of a seamless leadership transition. Here at Linde, we are proud of our industry-leading performance, which starts with living our core values while maintaining a disciplined execution culture.

謝謝你，Steve。能有機會帶領這家卓越的公司邁向未來，我深感榮幸。也感謝你多年來的信任與支持。在進入投影片之前，我想延續 Steve 對於領導交接無縫的評論。在林德，我們以業界領先的績效為傲，而這一切始於我們實踐核心價值，同時維持紀律嚴明的執行文化。

As CEO, I fully intend to build upon our foundation. My focus will be on areas that are aligned with the interest of our shareholders: profitable growth, optimize the business, cash generation and, of course, the truth serum for our industry, ROC. Linde will remain focused on the things that create value for Linde owners such as strong pricing and productivity culture, an active commitment to sustainability, a disciplined investment philosophy, a shareholder-friendly capital policy, and of course, pursuing high-quality and sustainable growth initiatives with emphasis on ROC. Ultimately, it's about being the best-performing industrial gases and engineering company in the world. Stated differently, you can expect a seamless transition with minimal change.

身為執行長，我完全打算在既有基礎上再接再厲。我將聚焦於與股東利益一致的領域：獲利成長、最佳化業務、現金創造，當然還有我們產業的「真實血清」——資本報酬率（ROC）。林德將持續專注於為股東創造價值的事項，例如強健的定價與生產力文化、對永續發展的積極承諾、紀律性的投資理念、以股東為友善的資本政策，以及在強調 ROC 的前提下，推動高品質且可持續的成長計畫。歸根結底，就是要成為全球表現最好的工業氣體與工程公司。換句話說，各位可以期待一個無縫交接、變動極小的過渡。

Now with that said, let's move on to Slide 3 for an update on our growth initiatives. Last quarter, I mentioned some key growth drivers, including the secured project backlog, accretive base CapEx investments and the strength of our growth in low-capital intensity areas such as health care, food and beverage, engineering and our packaged gas business.

在此基礎上，讓我們翻到投影片第 3 頁，更新我們的成長計畫。上季我提到幾項關鍵成長動能，包括已取得的專案在手訂單、具增益性的基礎資本支出（CapEx）投資，以及我們在低資本密集領域的強勁成長，例如醫療保健、食品與飲料、工程，以及我們的瓶裝氣體業務。

Today, I'm happy to report that our project backlog has increased from $7.5 billion to $13.4 billion or up 81% sequentially from the last quarter. You will recall, this backlog only includes contractually secured incremental growth with fixed payments to ensure targeted returns. We're also beginning to see a return of the capital cycle, especially in upstream operations, such as natural gas production that bodes well for our overall pipeline of opportunities.

今天我很高興報告，我們的專案在手訂單已由 75 億美元增加至 134 億美元，較上季季增 81%。各位會記得，這些在手訂單僅包含已以合約確保的增量成長，並透過固定付款以確保達成目標報酬。我們也開始看到資本循環回歸，特別是在上游業務，例如天然氣生產，這對我們整體機會管線的前景相當有利。

On top of that, the electronics sector continues to be very active. We recently announced a $600 million investment -- sale of gas investment indeed to supply a world-class fab in Phoenix, Arizona. This will supply only the first phase of this project, and we expect to see further opportunities as that area builds out. Overall, I'm pleased to see how the entire Linde team has come together and is leveraging our combined strengths to secure high-quality growth opportunities through our leading high-density industrial gas network combined with the world-class engineering capabilities. This backlog, combined with our supply network density, enables profitable and secured growth for years to come.

此外，電子產業仍然非常活躍。我們近期宣布一項 6 億美元投資——確實是氣體供應投資——以供應位於亞利桑那州鳳凰城的一座世界級晶圓廠。這將僅供應該專案的第一期，我們預期隨著該區域持續擴建，將出現更多機會。整體而言，我很高興看到整個林德團隊凝聚一致，運用我們整合後的優勢，透過領先的高密度工業氣體供應網路，結合世界級工程能力，來取得高品質的成長機會。這些在手訂單，加上我們供應網路的密度，將使我們在未來多年實現獲利且有保障的成長。

Now before moving to the quarterly results, I want to update you on Linde's new and more ambitious greenhouse gas emission goals. A good way to stop this is to first explain the role our products play in people's lives and the overall economy. You'll find this on Slide 4. We make products that are critical for society, products such as medical oxygen for hospitals, ultra high-purity nitrogen for semiconductors, liquid nitrogen for food freezing, krypton to insulate windows and hydrogen to produce cleaner fuels to give you just a few examples.

在進入季度業績之前，我想向各位更新林德新的、且更具企圖心的溫室氣體排放目標。要理解這點，一個很好的方式是先說明我們的產品在民眾生活與整體經濟中扮演的角色。各位可在投影片第 4 頁看到。我們生產對社會至關重要的產品，例如供醫院使用的醫療氧氣、用於半導體的超高純度氮氣、用於食品冷凍的液態氮、用於窗戶隔熱的氪氣，以及用於生產更潔淨燃料的氫氣，僅舉幾例。

In order to make these products, we expect to have a total of 39 million metric tons of Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions this year. As you know, the production of gases require significant amounts of electricity. When such electricity is generated using hydrocarbons, we're penalized for those indirect emissions called Scope 2 emissions. We also have Scope 1 emissions, which are significantly lower than our Scope 2 emissions, but are significant nonetheless. Now these emissions are largely as a result of using natural gas to make hydrogen, which is used by refiners to produce cleaner fuels.

為了生產這些產品，我們預期今年的範疇 1（Scope 1）與範疇 2（Scope 2）排放總量將達 3,900 萬公噸。如各位所知，氣體生產需要大量電力。當電力以碳氫化合物發電時，我們會因這些被稱為範疇 2 的間接排放而被計入排放。我們也有範疇 1 排放，雖然明顯低於範疇 2，但仍然不可忽視。這些排放主要來自使用天然氣製造氫氣，而氫氣被煉油業者用來生產更潔淨的燃料。

Our gases play a critical role in the economy. In addition to saving lives, improving energy efficiency, increasing shelf life, our products also help our customers eliminate or reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In 2020, we generated a total of 37 million metric tons of emissions to make products that helped our customers avoid more than twice our emissions or 85 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent. In other words, without Linde's products, there would be significantly higher net carbon emissions in our world.

我們的氣體在經濟中扮演關鍵角色。除了拯救生命、提升能源效率、延長保存期限之外，我們的產品也協助客戶消除或降低溫室氣體排放。2020 年，我們為生產產品而產生的排放總量為 3,700 萬公噸，但這些產品協助客戶避免的排放超過我們自身排放的兩倍，達 8,500 萬公噸二氧化碳當量。換言之，若沒有林德的產品，全球的淨碳排放將會顯著更高。

At Linde, we have been doing our part to support our planet for many decades, but we know we need to do more. In 2019, we set a goal to reduce the carbon intensity of Linde 35% by 2028. We are well ahead of that goal and expect to exceed it, which is, of course, good news. But an intensity goal doesn't fully address the absolute Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions. So we are determined to continue on our mission of making our world more productive, enabling our customers to decarbonize and commit to reducing our own carbon footprint.

在林德，我們數十年來一直盡一己之力支持地球，但我們知道還需要做得更多。2019 年，我們設定目標：在 2028 年前將林德的碳強度降低 35%。我們目前大幅領先該目標，並預期將超越它，這當然是好消息。但強度目標並未完全涵蓋範疇 1 與範疇 2 的絕對排放量。因此，我們決心持續推進使命：讓世界更具生產力、協助客戶去碳化，並承諾降低我們自身的碳足跡。

With that in mind, I'd like to announce Linde's new medium- and long-term emission goals, which you will find on Slide 5. The first goal is to achieve a 35% reduction in our Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by the year 2035 or simply 35 by 35. To achieve this goal, we must materially reduce our Scope 1 emissions, which are driven by hydrogen production. We will do this by focusing our efforts on carbon capture and sequestration, developing blue and green hydrogen production and progressively transitioning to a zero-emission fleet.

基於此，我想宣布林德新的中期與長期減排目標，您可在第 5 張投影片中看到。第一個目標是到 2035 年將我們的範疇 1 與範疇 2 排放量降低 35%，簡稱「35 by 35」。為了達成此目標，我們必須實質降低由氫氣生產所驅動的範疇 1 排放。我們將透過聚焦碳捕集與封存、發展藍氫與綠氫生產，並逐步轉型為零排放車隊來達成。

Our Scope 2 emissions are related to electricity consumption. Today, we consume approximately 45 terawatt hours of power, a 1/3 of which is from renewable and low-carbon sources. In order to achieve the 35 by 35 goal, we will triple, triple our renewable and low-carbon power sourcing by 2035 through new PPAs and by supporting renewable energy projects with offtake agreements and even co-investment. To put this goal in perspective, the amount of renewable energy we were planned to purchase is equivalent of all the power consumed annually in New York City. That's a big number.

我們的範疇 2 排放與用電量相關。目前我們約消耗 45 太瓦時的電力，其中三分之一來自再生能源與低碳來源。為了達成「35 by 35」目標，我們將在 2035 年前把再生能源與低碳電力的採購提高到三倍、三倍，方式包括簽訂新的購電協議（PPA），並透過承購協議，甚至共同投資來支持再生能源專案。為了讓您理解這個目標的規模，我們原計畫購買的再生能源電量，相當於紐約市每年消耗的全部電力。這是一個很大的數字。

Of course, in addition to that, we will continue improving the energy efficiency of our plants as well. These goals are being embedded across the entire global organization, being reviewed as part of our operating rhythm and will be incorporated into our annual variable compensation. This is what gives me the confidence in our ability to deliver these goals, which is no different than how we would approach anything of importance in our company. Now in addition to the 35 by 35 goal, we are also committed to pursuing our goal of becoming climate-neutral by 2050. We will do our part to achieve this goal, but we also need strong policy support and regulatory support.

當然，除此之外，我們也將持續提升工廠的能源效率。這些目標將被嵌入整個全球組織，納入我們的營運節奏進行檢視，並將納入我們的年度變動薪酬。這讓我對我們達成這些目標的能力充滿信心，這與我們在公司內處理任何重要事項的方式並無不同。除了「35 by 35」目標之外，我們也承諾追求在 2050 年達成氣候中和。我們會盡一己之力達成此目標，但我們也需要強而有力的政策支持與監管支持。

Let me summarize this journey on Slide 6. We have defined a road map to reach climate neutrality. The road map is underpinned by numerous initiatives and milestones, which will be embedded into our operating system, providing us the greatest opportunity for success. Going forward, we will continue to share our progress, ensuring accountability and transparency for our stakeholders.

讓我在第 6 張投影片總結這段旅程。我們已定義一條通往氣候中和的路線圖。這份路線圖以眾多倡議與里程碑為基礎，並將嵌入我們的營運系統中，為我們提供最大的成功機會。展望未來，我們將持續分享進展，確保對利害關係人具備問責性與透明度。

I'll now turn it over to Matt to walk you through the numbers.

接下來我把時間交給 Matt，請他帶各位看一下數字。

Thanks, Sanjiv. Please turn to Slide 7 for an overview of the third quarter results. Sales of $7.7 billion increased 12% over last year, and 1% from the second quarter. Cost pass-through, which represents the contractual billing of energy cost variances, primarily in the on-site business, rose 3% over last year and 2% sequentially. Recall that cost pass-through has no effect on profit dollars, but will impact profit margins as we gross up or down sales and variable costs. Foreign exchange was a 2% tailwind versus prior year, but a 1% headwind sequentially, as most currencies have recently devalued against the U.S. dollar.

謝謝你，Sanjiv。請翻到第 7 張投影片，了解第三季業績概覽。銷售額 77 億美元，較去年成長 12%，較第二季成長 1%。成本轉嫁（cost pass-through）主要代表現場供氣業務中，依合約就能源成本差異進行的開票，較去年上升 3%，較前一季上升 2%。請記得，成本轉嫁不影響利潤金額，但會在我們上調或下調銷售與變動成本時影響利潤率。外匯相較去年帶來 2% 的順風，但較前一季帶來 1% 的逆風，因為近期多數貨幣相對美元貶值。

Excluding these items, underlying sales grew 11% over prior year and 1% sequentially. The 8% volume increase over last year was broad-based across all geographies and end markets, as we continue to see recovery from the pandemic. Sequentially, volumes are flat as contribution from project start-ups were mostly offset by lower volumes in China. Pricing levels are up 3% from last year and 1% from the second quarter, as we continue to adjust merchant and packaged gas product pricing in line with local inflation.

排除上述項目後，基礎銷售額較去年成長 11%，較前一季成長 1%。相較去年，銷量成長 8%，在所有地區與終端市場皆呈現廣泛成長，因為我們持續看到疫情後的復甦。就季比而言，銷量持平，因為專案啟動帶來的貢獻大多被中國較低的銷量所抵銷。定價水準較去年上升 3%，較第二季上升 1%，因為我們持續依據當地通膨調整散裝與瓶裝氣體產品價格。

Note that some of these contracts have lagging recovery mechanisms, which may not take effect for 2 to 6 months, depending upon the terms and conditions. Operating margin of 23.6% is 150 basis points above 2020, but 60 basis points below the high mark set in the second quarter. Excluding the impact of cost pass-through, operating margin would have increased 220 basis points above last year and had a negligible decline sequentially. As mentioned, merchant and package cost recovery can lag 1 to 2 quarters. So going forward, I expect continued pricing momentum.

請注意，其中部分合約具有遞延的回收機制，依據條款與條件不同，可能需要 2 到 6 個月才會生效。營業利益率為 23.6%，較 2020 年高出 150 個基點，但較第二季創下的高點低 60 個基點。若排除成本轉嫁的影響，營業利益率將較去年提升 220 個基點，且季比僅有可忽略的下滑。如前所述，散裝與瓶裝的成本回收可能會落後 1 到 2 個季度。因此展望未來，我預期定價動能將持續。

EPS of $2.73 is up 27% over last year from higher volumes and price over a relatively stable cost base. As both Steve and Sanjiv mentioned, Linde has a strong productivity culture, which enables consistent profit growth, irrespective of the economic climate. This is also evident in the 16.7% return on capital, which represents another record as profit continues to grow double-digit percent over a flat capital base.

每股盈餘（EPS）為 2.73 美元，受惠於在相對穩定的成本基礎上，銷量與價格提升，較去年成長 27%。如 Steve 與 Sanjiv 所提到，林德擁有強大的生產力文化，使我們無論經濟景氣如何，都能持續實現獲利成長。這也反映在 16.7% 的資本報酬率上，這再次創下紀錄，因為在資本基礎持平的情況下，獲利仍以兩位數百分比成長。

The reason we've been able to maintain such a steady capital base is due to a combination of disciplined capital management and healthy cash generation, which I'll cover on Slide 8. You can see to the left, our operating cash progression resulting in a record level of $2.6 billion in the third quarter. The 3 main drivers are stronger earnings, timing benefits from last quarter and engineering contract prepayments. In light of the record sale of plant backlog, I anticipate further project repayments into the next few quarters.

我們之所以能維持如此穩定的資本基礎，是因為嚴謹的資本管理與健康的現金創造能力相結合，我將在第 8 張投影片說明。您可以在左側看到，我們的營運現金流走勢在第三季達到創紀錄的 26 億美元。三大驅動因素為更強勁的獲利、來自上季的時點效益，以及工程合約的預付款。鑑於工廠積壓訂單銷售創下紀錄，我預期未來幾季將有更多專案回款。

As far as how we allocated year-to-date cash, the pie chart to the right shows $2.3 billion invested into the business and $4.8 billion distributed back to shareholders through dividends and stock repurchases. Note that investments exclude sale of plant since we are paid in advance for engineering projects, which means that we are committing much larger amounts toward contractually secured growth than what's shown on this chart.

至於我們如何配置年初至今的現金，右側圓餅圖顯示：23 億美元投入業務，48 億美元透過股利與庫藏股回購回饋股東。請注意，投資金額不包含工廠出售，因為工程專案我們會先收取預付款，這表示我們對合約保障的成長所承諾的金額，遠高於此圖表所呈現的數字。

In addition to generating significant surplus cash we have access to very attractive capital through the debt markets. In September, we issued almost EUR 2 billion at 5-, 12- and 30-year maturities, with all-in coupons of 0%, 0.38% and 1%, respectively. Overall, the combination of excess cash generation and low-cost incremental debt gives us a high degree of confidence to maintain shareholder-friendly allocation policies over the long term.

除了產生可觀的超額現金外，我們也能透過債券市場取得非常具吸引力的資金。9 月，我們發行了近 20 億歐元的債券，期限分別為 5 年、12 年與 30 年，綜合票息分別為 0%、0.38% 與 1%。整體而言，超額現金創造能力與低成本的新增負債相結合，使我們對長期維持友善股東的資本配置政策充滿信心。

I'll wrap things up with guidance on Slide 9. The fourth quarter EPS guidance range of $2.60 to $2.70 is 13% to 17% above last year and 38% to 43% above 2019. Consistent with prior quarters, we believe it's important to distinguish true multiyear growth from mere recovery of 2020 recessionary conditions. Versus the third quarter, this range represents a sequential decrease due to normal seasonal declines plus an estimated 1% foreign currency headwind. Underlying volumes are assumed to be roughly in line with the third quarter, but if current conditions hold, I'd expect to be at the upper end of this range. This quarterly update results in a new full year guidance of $10.52 to $10.62, which represents a growth rate of 28% to 29% over 2020 and 43% to 45% over 2019.

我將以第 9 張投影片的財測作結。第四季 EPS 指引區間為 2.60 至 2.70 美元，較去年高出 13% 至 17%，較 2019 年高出 38% 至 43%。與前幾季一致，我們認為區分真正的多年期成長與僅是 2020 年衰退環境的復甦非常重要。相較第三季，該區間代表季比下滑，原因是正常的季節性走弱，加上預估 1% 的外幣逆風。基礎銷量假設大致與第三季相當，但若目前狀況維持，我預期將落在區間上緣。本次季度更新使全年新指引為 10.52 至 10.62 美元，較 2020 年成長 28% 至 29%，較 2019 年成長 43% 至 45%。

In summary, another solid quarter despite some challenging conditions. And regardless of the macro, we remain confident in Linde's ability to continue delivering industry-leading performance. I'd now like to turn the call over to Q&A.

總結而言，儘管面臨一些具挑戰性的情況，本季仍表現穩健。無論總體環境如何，我們仍對林德持續交出業界領先表現的能力充滿信心。接下來我想把電話會議交給問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Bob Koort。

I was wondering if you guys could comment a little bit on the hydrogen markets and your engagement there with customers and partners, how that may have evolved over the last several quarters? Maybe from the context of -- from the outside, it just seems like there's a massive broadening of participation as people start reaching for that opportunity. Just maybe give us some insights into how you've seen that evolving at Linde?

我想請教各位能否談談氫能市場，以及你們與客戶與合作夥伴在該領域的參與情況，在過去幾個季度可能有哪些演變？也許從外部來看，似乎隨著大家開始追逐這個機會，參與者大幅擴大。能否分享一些你們在林德所觀察到的演進情況？

Thanks, Bob. I'll take that very quickly. I agree with you that there's been significant and continuing momentum in the space. And I'm very pleased to suggest that we are seeing a reflection of that in the activities that we are actively pursuing. I'll start off by just describing what the opportunity pipeline looks like because that's reflective of the level of activity that Linde is seeing and then talk a little bit about the particular areas where we see some of that momentum reflected now.

謝謝你，Bob。我很快回應。我同意你所說，這個領域的動能顯著且持續。我也很高興地表示，我們正從我們積極推進的活動中看到這種動能的反映。我先簡要說明機會管線的樣貌，因為那反映了林德所看到的活動程度，接著再談談我們目前在哪些特定領域看到這些動能的體現。

So starting over the projects that we're looking at. As you know, we run this monthly call on the Hydrogen Council that Linde runs internally. We've got about 260 projects in our pipeline. We've got a probability weighted sort of conservatively probability weighted number in terms of investment decisions of up to $4-plus billion now. And these are decisions we expect to see happen in the next 3 years or so. In the past, you've heard me say that we expect to see us investing about $1 billion a year roughly in this space. And then on top of that, there may be some mega projects that come along as well.

先從我們正在評估的專案談起。如各位所知，我們在氫能委員會上每月都有一次內部電話會議，由林德在內部運作。我們的管線中大約有 260 個專案。就投資決策而言，我們有一個以機率加權、相對保守的機率加權估算，目前最高可達 40 億美元以上。我們預期這些決策將在未來約 3 年內發生。過去你們聽我說過，我們預期在這個領域每年大約投資 10 億美元。此外，上面也可能還會出現一些超大型專案。

So that's just to give you a sense of the level of activity that there is happening around that space. Now remember, and I've said this before, Bob, so you'll kind of recall, Linde has a unique position in what is happening in the evolving space around clean energy. We've kind of described to you previously, under decarbonization, we look at carbon solutions and we look at hydrogen. In the hydrogen space, we obviously are very mindful and interested in the developments around blue hydrogen.

所以這只是讓你了解一下，在那個領域周邊正在發生的活動量級。現在請記得，而且我之前也說過，Bob，所以你應該還記得，Linde 在潔淨能源這個持續演進的領域中，擁有獨特的定位。我們先前在去碳化（decarbonization）之下，已向你說明，我們會看碳解決方案，也會看氫能。在氫能領域，我們當然非常關注並且對藍氫相關的發展很有興趣。

We see that as a very important transition in this clean energy road map that lies ahead. And this is where we are seeing significant pickup in terms of activity. We are currently involved in a number of projects, which have a range of investments and those are progressing well. And again, for projects in this space to make sense, you need 3 things to be happening. You need the technology provider. in this case, that is us, for carbon capture. You need partnerships to ensure that you're then looking at sequestration effectively with partners who have long-standing experience and knowledge of that space. We're currently actively pursuing those as well.

我們認為這是未來潔淨能源路線圖中非常重要的一個過渡環節。而這正是我們看到活動顯著升溫的地方。我們目前參與了多個專案，投資規模各不相同，且進展良好。同樣地，要讓這個領域的專案具備合理性，你需要同時具備三個條件。你需要技術提供者——在這個案例中，碳捕捉的技術提供者就是我們。你需要合作夥伴，以確保你能與在該領域具備長期經驗與知識的夥伴有效地進行封存（sequestration）。我們目前也正在積極推進這些合作。

And of course, third, very importantly, you need an offtaker. You need a partner who is willing to stay in the game and actually offtake the blue hydrogen that comes off that and is able to create some value as a result of that. For us, those 3 things are very important. And again, I'm pleased to say that we're seeing those partnerships actually take -- gather a lot of momentum as we move forward. I'll kind of stop there for a moment and give you -- see if that answered your question.

當然，第三點也非常重要，你需要承購方（offtaker）。你需要一個願意長期投入、實際承購由此產出的藍氫，並且能因此創造價值的合作夥伴。對我們而言，這三件事都非常重要。而且我很高興地說，隨著我們往前推進，我們確實看到這些合作關係正在——正在累積非常強的動能。我先在這裡暫停一下，看看這是否回答了你的問題。

Yes. That's very helpful. What about the competitive intensity as that landscape has been populated with more and more companies maybe trying to edge in on the turf that has historically belonged to the industrial gas companies?

是的。這非常有幫助。那麼，隨著越來越多公司進入這個版圖、可能試圖切入過去歷來屬於工業氣體公司的領域，競爭強度如何？

So the way I'd answer that, I think, Bob, is just to kind of remind you, a lot of -- so firstly, lots of announcements. I think you see them, we see them every day. And every morning, I wake up to this long list of announcements that are happening. A large number of people who make those announcements have either never seen or heard of hydrogen before this. Most of them don't even understand that we have a colorless molecule that obviously is now defined by very, very many colors. But putting that aside in terms of experience and expertise, the reality is there will be a number of players who will make a difference in this space. And as part of that, you will see a range of outcomes.

我想我會這樣回答，Bob：先提醒你一下——首先，公告非常多。我想你也看得到，我們每天都看得到。每天早上醒來，我都會看到一長串正在發生的公告。做出這些公告的人當中，有相當一部分在此之前從未見過或聽過氫。多數人甚至不理解，我們有一個本來無色的分子，現在卻被賦予了非常、非常多的顏色。不過先把這點放一邊，回到經驗與專業能力，現實是：在這個領域會有一些參與者真正產生影響。而在這個過程中，你也會看到各種不同的結果。

You will see us competing where we need to, and you will see us partnering with a number of those as well. This is an area that requires strong partnerships for that initial momentum and the ecosystem development to really happen. And I see that development happened where we are kind of speaking to a range of partners across different areas helping move this along. So I don't particularly kind of see this as a space that you're going to see the intensity of competition being any different to what we see otherwise.

你會看到我們在需要競爭的地方競爭，同時也會看到我們與其中一些參與者合作。這是一個需要強大合作夥伴關係的領域，才能讓初期動能與生態系的發展真正發生。我也看到這樣的發展正在發生——我們正在與不同領域的一系列夥伴對話，協助推動這件事向前。因此，我並不特別認為這個領域的競爭強度會與我們在其他領域所看到的有任何不同。

We'll take our next question from Duffy Fischer with Barclays.

我們下一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Duffy Fischer。

First, I just want to say congrats to Sanjiv on great promotion, and thank you to Steve for the decade and a half. And I think from an investor standpoint, maybe even more from the way the transition was handled, almost picture perfect. So thank you guys all for that. I guess my question is around Lincare and maybe the medical business in general. If you go back before COVID started and just kind of analyze how that business has developed with COVID as kind of a driver, how do you see that business structurally different today? And how much has it grown through that period relative to the rest of the business?

首先，我想恭喜 Sanjiv 獲得很棒的升遷，也感謝 Steve 過去十五年的付出。我想從投資人的角度來看，甚至可能更重要的是這次交接的處理方式，幾乎堪稱完美。所以謝謝你們各位。我想我的問題是關於 Lincare，或更廣泛的醫療業務。若回到 COVID 開始之前，並分析在 COVID 作為一個推動因素之下這項業務的發展，你認為這項業務在結構上今天有哪些不同？在這段期間它相對於公司其他業務成長了多少？

Duffy, thanks. Let me get into it. And I'll start off by just taking a step back and outlining the health care space that we operate in and also reminding everyone that we have strong leadership in that space. So we think of our health care business in 2 different areas. We look at hospital care, where we are the primary provider of medical gases to hospitals, and of course, a home care business, where as you referenced, Lincare is a very, very important player in the U.S., but we obviously have smaller home care businesses elsewhere in the world as well.

Duffy，謝謝。我來談談這個。我先退一步，概述一下我們所處的醫療保健領域，也提醒大家，我們在這個領域擁有強而有力的領導地位。我們把醫療保健業務分成兩個不同的面向：一是醫院照護（hospital care），我們是醫院醫用氣體的主要供應商；當然還有居家照護（home care）業務，如你所提到的，Lincare 在美國是非常、非常重要的參與者，但我們在世界其他地區也有規模較小的居家照護業務。

So thinking structurally about that business, let me just kind of say to you, there are 2 things happening as we speak. Obviously, you've heard us talk about how we've -- how that business is supported and saved lives and supported hospitals and patients at home over the last 18-plus months now. So clearly, it's played a very important role. Lincare, in particular, in the U.S. was almost seen as a second line of defense supporting COVID patients at home through the respiratory offerings that we have.

從結構面來看這項業務，我想先跟你說，現在有兩件事正在發生。顯然，你已經聽我們談過，在過去 18 個月以上的時間裡，這項業務如何支援並拯救生命，並支援醫院以及在家中的病患。所以很明顯，它扮演了非常重要的角色。尤其是在美國，Lincare 幾乎被視為第二道防線，透過我們的呼吸相關產品與服務，支援在家中的 COVID 病患。

What has happened as a consequence of the pandemic is that a number of regulators and governments have, in the best way to describe it is, woken up to the realities of how they need to manage this more professionally in terms of storage, in terms of piping, in terms of infrastructure necessary for these high levels of medical gases and oxygen, in particular, to be delivered to their infrastructure and network.

疫情帶來的結果是，許多監管機構與政府——用最貼切的說法——開始正視他們需要更專業地管理這件事的現實，包括儲存、管線配置，以及為了能提供如此高水準的醫用氣體（尤其是氧氣）到其基礎設施與網路所必需的相關基礎建設。

We have been participating in many of those conversations. In fact, most governments have reached out to us seeking support and help in structuring those conversations, and we are obviously leading many of those conversations across the world today where we are helping governments and regulators make sure that they have a well thought through infrastructure program and a development process around how they will manage this going forward.

我們一直參與許多這類對話。事實上，多數政府都主動聯繫我們，尋求在架構這些討論上的支援與協助；而我們目前也確實在全球各地引領許多這類對話，協助政府與監管機構確保他們擁有周全規劃的基礎建設方案，以及未來將如何管理這件事的發展流程。

A kind of pandemic preparedness a little bit late in the day, but nonetheless important to make sure for the future. The reason I mentioned this is because this means as we move forward, we're going to see continuing activity in this space. We will be participating in those activities and expecting a level of growth out of that. We've said this before, Duffy, you've heard us describe mid-single-digit growth for the health care business overall, and I still maintain that we will see that.

這有點像是疫情整備（pandemic preparedness）來得稍晚，但無論如何，為了未來仍然很重要。我之所以提到這點，是因為這意味著，往前看，我們將在這個領域看到持續的活動。我們會參與這些活動，並預期由此帶來一定程度的成長。我們之前也說過，Duffy，你也聽過我們描述醫療保健業務整體的成長為中個位數（mid-single-digit），我仍然認為我們會看到這樣的表現。

Obviously, in the Lincare world, in particular, tuck-in acquisition is something that we are very interested and excited about. So we'll continue to see those come through, adding on to that mid-single digit or contributing to that mid-single digit that I referenced earlier on as well. So I do see this a solid secular growth trend. I see it progressing with a strong mid-single-digit growth that I described earlier on, and I see us seeing kind of areas in the world where we will see that probably grow at -- not probably, will grow at a higher pace, Asia being one such example. Again, because of the strength of our footprint there, we have the ability to make sure that we leverage that footprint for that incremental growth in Asia as an example.

當然，特別是在 Lincare 的業務中，補強式併購（tuck-in acquisition）是我們非常感興趣、也很期待的方向。所以我們會持續看到這些案子落地，並在我先前提到的中個位數成長之上再加碼，或對該中個位數成長做出貢獻。因此，我確實認為這是一個穩健的長期結構性成長趨勢。我看到它以我先前描述的強勁中個位數成長持續推進；同時我也看到，全球某些地區我們將會——不是可能——而是將會以更快的速度成長，亞洲就是其中一個例子。同樣地，因為我們在那裡的佈局很強，我們有能力確保能運用這個佈局來帶動例如亞洲的增量成長。

Terrific. And then maybe just a quick one. As we start to look into 2022, when you look at just the new project growth coming on stream, how will that impact 2022 relative to what we've seen over the last couple of years?

太好了。那再問一個簡短的問題。當我們開始展望 2022 年時，從新專案的成長與投產（coming on stream）來看，這將如何影響 2022 年，相較於過去幾年我們所看到的情況？

All right. So I have to say I expected that question, so that's good. Now so I want to maybe take a step back and just go back to what we said maybe a couple of earnings calls before, right? We committed to delivering a 10-plus percent EPS growth for the midterm. As you can imagine, I feel pretty confident about that today as I'm sitting here. It's obviously supported by this very strong backlog that you just referenced. I had to say that this strong backlog will provide us with mid-single-digit EPS growth, if you like, for the next 4 years or so.

好的。我得說我預期你會問這個問題，所以很好。那我想先退一步，回到我們在大概前兩次財報電話會議所說的內容，對吧？我們承諾在中期交付 10% 以上的每股盈餘（EPS）成長。你可以想像，坐在這裡的我，今天對此相當有信心。這顯然也受到你剛提到的非常強勁的在手訂單（backlog）所支撐。我得說，這個強勁的在手訂單將在未來大約 4 年左右，為我們提供中個位數的 EPS 成長貢獻。

So that's a pretty strong contributor right there for you. Now on 2022 specifically, Duffy, I'm going to say to you that in about 3 weeks' time, we're going to spend 3 whole days with every region around the world going through our planning meeting. Steve mentioned to you how we have fun in Danbury, this is going to be one of those fun events. We will review, we will dissect, we'll analyze their numbers and then in the end, we'll agree with them what they need to deliver for 2022. So I'm looking forward to coming back in January and giving you an update on the outlook and our guidance for 2022 once we've had this meeting.

所以這本身就是一個相當強的貢獻。至於 2022 年的具體情況，Duffy，我要跟你說的是，大約三週後，我們會花整整三天，與全球各個區域一起進行規劃會議。Steve 跟你提過我們在 Danbury 玩得很開心，這會是其中一個「有趣」的活動。我們會檢視、拆解、分析他們的數字，最後我們會與他們達成一致，確認他們在 2022 年需要交付什麼。因此，我期待在一月回來，在我們完成這次會議後，向你更新 2022 年的展望與我們對 2022 年的指引（guidance）。

We'll take our next question from Nicola Tang with Exane BNP Paribas.

我們將請 Exane BNP Paribas 的 Nicola Tang 提出下一個問題。

Congratulations to both Steve and Sanjiv. First I would like to ask a question on China. I think Matt, in your prepared remarks, you talked about volume weakness in China. I was wondering if you could comment on what you're seeing on the ground there in terms of sort of direct and indirect impacts from the energy control measures. I guess, both in terms of today -- the impact today and in terms of -- with respect to future investment opportunities?

恭喜 Steve 與 Sanjiv。首先我想問一個關於中國的問題。我想 Matt，在你事先準備的發言中，你提到中國的銷量疲弱。我想請你評論一下，你們在當地看到的情況，特別是能源管控措施所帶來的直接與間接影響。我想，無論是就目前——當下的影響，以及就未來投資機會而言？

And then the second question was on engineering, and congrats on this very big project. I think you used to talk about kind of mid- -- or low to mid-teens through the cycle kind of margin. But we've been tracking above that for some time now. And so I was wondering whether there's any reason to assume that this new business would be at a different margin to what we've been seeing in the recent past?

第二個問題是關於工程業務，也恭喜拿下這個非常大的專案。我記得你們過去談到，穿越景氣循環的利潤率大概在中十位數——或低到中十位數。但我們追蹤下來，你們已經有一段時間高於這個水準。因此我想問，是否有任何理由認為這項新業務的利潤率會與我們近期看到的水準不同？

Sure, Nicola. I can take this one. So starting with China, yes, to your point, we did see some volume curtailments as you would expect with the power outages. We do feel very confident about our customer base. They're still paying the MTOPs. These are Tier 1 customers. This is something you've seen, as you probably know, in prior times in China when there are some centrally managed slowdown. So from that perspective, yes, there were reductions on a sequential basis. Now if you look at the APAC segment, you actually see volumes are up 2% sequentially and the primary driver there is because our backlog pretty much offset any of that China sequential decline. And then the rest of our APAC business still performed quite well on growth, including some seasonal growth that we tend to see in the South Pacific. So from that perspective, yes, we had some of that. We anticipate a little bit of that to continue here into the fourth quarter.

當然，Nicola。我可以回答這題。先從中國開始，是的，如你所說，因為停電，我們確實看到一些如預期的銷量限縮。我們對我們的客戶基礎非常有信心。他們仍在支付 MTOP。這些都是一級（Tier 1）客戶。你可能也知道，過去在中國出現一些中央管理的放緩時，你也曾看過這種情況。所以從這個角度來看，是的，按季比較確實有所下降。不過如果你看亞太（APAC）分部，其實銷量按季上升 2%，主要原因是我們的在手訂單（backlog）幾乎抵消了中國按季下滑的影響。此外，我們在亞太其他業務的成長表現仍相當不錯，包括我們在南太平洋通常會看到的一些季節性成長。因此從這個角度來看，是的，我們確實受到一些影響。我們預期這種情況在第四季仍會持續一點。

So when we talked about volumes assumed to be flat sequentially into our guidance range, it does take into account some continuing just volume softness based on this. But overall, we feel very good about our asset base. We see this as temporary. And to some extent, we tend to come out stronger on these things with our customer base. So we'll see how that plays out.

因此，當我們談到在指引區間中假設銷量按季持平時，這已納入基於上述因素而持續存在的一些銷量疲弱。但整體而言，我們對我們的資產基礎感覺非常良好。我們認為這是暫時性的。而且在某種程度上，這類情況往往會讓我們與客戶基礎的關係更為強化。我們會看看後續如何發展。

On the engineering, you're exactly right, I mean, we have been operating kind of mid-teens or a little better. And as you can imagine, as you know, this business has pretty much a negative working capital. So what you see on the margins can be a pretty good indication of the type of returns you get or can even be a little better just based on the cash profile.

至於工程業務，你說得完全正確。我的意思是，我們一直以來的營運利潤率大約在中十位數或略高。而且如你所能想像、也如你所知，這項業務基本上是負營運資金（negative working capital）。因此你在利潤率上看到的表現，通常能相當好地反映你能取得的報酬型態，甚至因現金流特性而可能更好一些。

So very good business that we have. We're very excited to have this backlog. It will contribute to growth. We tend to focus more on the E&P side as well, which helps with the risk management. So from this perspective, we still see margins kind of in this, I'll call it, low- to mid-teens, and we'll see how it plays out though over the cycle. You will always have timing in how you recognize the percent completion. So quarter-to-quarter, it's always tough to gauge on any particular one. But over the multiyear process, we still think that kind of low double-digit to mid-teens is still a reasonable estimate through this business as it kind of goes through the cycles.

我們擁有的是非常好的業務。我們對這些在手訂單非常興奮，它將帶動成長。我們也傾向更聚焦在 E&P 端，這有助於風險管理。因此從這個角度來看，我們仍然認為利潤率大致在我所稱的低到中十位數區間，但也要看其在景氣循環中的實際表現。你永遠會遇到完工百分比（percent completion）認列時點的差異。所以就單一季度而言，總是很難判斷。但從多年期的角度來看，我們仍認為低雙位數到中十位數，對這項業務在循環中的表現仍是合理的估計。

And if I may ask a follow-up question around sort of energy costs and not specifically related to China, but more globally. Obviously, with your business, it's clear in terms of the pass-through effect or the large pass-through effect. But I was wondering if you're seeing any impact on your customers deciding to idle or reduce production at their own facilities because of their own higher operating costs?

如果我可以追問一個關於能源成本的問題，並非特別針對中國，而是更全球性的。顯然，就你們的業務而言，轉嫁效應或大幅轉嫁效應是很清楚的。但我想知道，你們是否看到任何影響：也就是你們的客戶因自身營運成本上升，而決定讓自家設施停工或降低產量？

Yes, sure. I can handle that one, Nicola. As you can imagine, on the on-site, business, we have our fixed payments, whether it's a facility payment or an MTOP. So from that perspective, we tend not to really have much risk to the production volumes given that it's not really anything I would be overly concerned with. In fact, if anything, what we've seen, especially on our more industrial customers, they tend to run in harder. You could think steel, you could think refining, given the environment they're in and the margins that they're making on some of these products.

是的，當然。我可以回答這題，Nicola。如你所能想像，在現場供氣（on-site）業務中，無論是設施費（facility payment）或 MTOP，我們都有固定付款。因此從這個角度來看，鑑於我們對產量並沒有太多風險，我其實不會對生產量過度擔心。事實上，如果有什麼變化，我們看到的是，特別是在較偏工業的客戶，他們反而會更努力地運轉。你可以想到鋼鐵、也可以想到煉油，因為在目前環境下，他們在某些產品上能取得的利潤率。

As far as the merchant and package -- realizing package, it's a high rent business, so the volatility of the customers' demand will really only affect the gas molecules. And what we're seeing, especially in Americas and parts of Europe still seeing pretty strong growth across that package business. So I think that's been quite good.

至於散裝（merchant）與套裝——也就是套裝業務，這是一個高租金（high rent）的業務，因此客戶需求的波動只會真正影響到氣體分子（gas molecules）。而我們看到的是，特別是在美洲以及歐洲部分地區，套裝業務仍呈現相當強勁的成長。所以我認為這表現相當不錯。

But on the merchant side, no, we really haven't seen any significant negative changes. It's been up pretty much across the board. And you could imagine the customers want to produce, right? They want to make as much product as they can in this environment, given their opportunity to get some pricing. So from that perspective, we haven't seen any material effect on that. There may be some small pockets, but nothing that's coming up to the aggregate level.

但在散裝端，沒有，我們確實沒有看到任何顯著的負面變化，幾乎是全面上升。你也可以想像，客戶想要生產，對吧？在這樣的環境下，考量到他們有機會取得一些定價，他們希望盡可能多地生產產品。因此從這個角度來看，我們沒有看到任何實質影響。可能有一些小區域的情況，但沒有上升到整體層級。

We'll take our next question from Tony Jones with Redburn.

我們將請 Redburn 的 Tony Jones 提出下一個問題。

I wanted to come back on the margins. So on an ex cost pass-through basis, margins are up all regions, in some cases, materially. Just wanted to check whether there are any positives in there that we should be thinking about that could reverse as we go into 2022? And are we getting now also to a stage where this is about as good as it gets?

我想回到利潤率的問題。因此，在扣除成本轉嫁（ex cost pass-through）的基礎上，各地區的利潤率都在上升，有些情況甚至相當顯著。我只是想確認一下，這裡面是否有任何我們應該留意的正面因素，可能在進入 2022 年時反轉？另外，我們現在是否也到了某個階段，也就是這大概已經是最好的狀況了？

You want to answer that?

你要回答嗎？

Yes, I can answer that. So Tony, that's right. You can see the margins moving up. Ex pass-through year-on-year, our margins are up and a strong showing by all the segments within that. So I think we see that momentum of what we've been working on kind of playing out in Q3. Now I don't really -- as I mentioned earlier on, we're going into the planning cycle on 2022. I have to say one of the variables as we think about this is, how does inflation play out and how do energy costs play out in the year ahead? I don't really want to be forecasting that, to be honest.

是的，我可以回答。Tony，你說得對。你可以看到利潤率在上升。扣除轉嫁後（ex pass-through）按年比較，我們的利潤率上升，而且各分部都表現強勁。所以我認為，我們一直在推動的動能在第三季開始展現成果。至於我不太——如我先前提到的，我們正進入 2022 年的規劃週期。我必須說，我們在思考時的一個變數是：通膨會如何發展，以及明年的能源成本會如何變化。老實說，我不太想去預測這些。

But what I do want to give you is some assurance on the pricing, which then clearly then flows into the margin piece and addresses your question, which is you can expect us to always be keeping pace with inflation, global inflation, and that really is a reflection of how we will do that management around the pass-through elements, in particular, and pricing beyond that. And that's what will then come back through the leverage we have down to the operating margin that you'll see. So hopefully, we'll come back and tell you in January what we think is the outlook for 2022 with a bit more precision. But for now, you can expect us to keep pace on the pricing side with any cost inflation that we see.

但我想給你一些對定價的信心，而這會清楚地反映到利潤率，並回應你的問題：你可以預期我們會始終跟上通膨、全球通膨，而這確實反映在我們將如何管理轉嫁項目（pass-through elements），特別是，以及除此之外的定價。接著，這會透過我們的營運槓桿，回到你所看到的營業利潤率上。因此希望我們能在一月更精準地告訴你，我們對 2022 年展望的看法。但就目前而言，你可以預期我們在定價面會跟上我們所看到的任何成本通膨。

Just to add a comment to what Sanjiv said, this is Steve. I think as we go forward, I don't like to ever hear the word peak margins because I don't -- never believed in peak margins. And when we say our best days are ahead, you got to keep in mind that we are going through a period where there's been a tremendous amount of cost that came through the system, mostly in the form of power. If you were to look at EMEA, for example, costs increased 25% to 30% between Q2 and Q3. So that's a lot of cost that comes at you at once. We instantly pass that through, as Matt mentioned, on the on-site piece, but it takes a few months up to 6 months to be able to recover all of that through the merchant and the packaged business.

補充 Sanjiv 所說的一點，我是 Steve。我認為往前看，我不喜歡聽到「利潤率見頂」這個詞，因為我——我從不相信有所謂的利潤率見頂。當我們說我們最好的日子還在前方，你必須記住，我們正處於一段系統中出現大量成本上升的期間，主要以電力的形式呈現。以 EMEA 為例，成本在第二季到第三季之間增加了 25% 到 30%。這是一次性迎面而來的大量成本。我們會立刻把它轉嫁出去，如 Matt 提到的，在現場供氣（on-site）部分；但在散裝與套裝業務中，要在幾個月、最多到 6 個月，才能把這些成本完全回收。

But if you think going forward over time, and you've heard us describe this model before, we take the top line, and we're able to leverage that through pricing and productivity to deliver increased EBIT margins over the long term. And we've been able to do that for many years, and that's really going to be the model that we will be in going forward, especially as we clear this immediate wave of cost inflation that's coming through the system, and we deal with that in a very positive way in the coming quarters.

但如果你往前看、隨著時間推移，而且你也聽過我們以前描述這個模式：我們推動營收成長，並能透過定價與生產力把它槓桿化，長期帶來更高的 EBIT 利潤率。我們多年來一直能做到這點，而這也將是我們未來持續採用的模式，特別是在我們度過這一波立即性的成本通膨衝擊之後，並在接下來幾個季度以非常正面的方式加以應對。

That's really helpful. And if I could, just a small follow up on the 35 by 35 targets, I appreciate that also the update there. We've heard from some chemical companies that there's like extra costs or CapEx required to get sustainability targets. Is that going to be the case for Linde? And maybe if so, you could help us think a bit about what that could look like?

這真的很有幫助。另外如果可以的話，針對 35 by 35 目標我想再小小追問一下，也謝謝你們在這方面的更新。我們聽到一些化工公司表示，為了達成永續目標，可能需要額外成本或資本支出（CapEx）。林德也會是這樣嗎？如果會的話，能否幫我們稍微想像一下大概會是什麼樣子？

So Tony, as we've put those targets up and we've built a road map around that, clearly, you would have seen in our description of how we want to achieve that. We are working -- our mission here is to support our customers in their decarbonization attempt and ensuring that we have the technology and the solutions necessary for that. Now we make those commitments, keeping in mind the broader decarbonization trend that is happening. And of course, in our support of that, we will need to make investments along the way, which we look at on a project-by-project basis. And each of those investments we've said this previously, obviously, need to kind of live up to our investment criteria.

Tony，當我們提出這些目標並圍繞它建立路線圖時，從我們對如何達成的描述中你應該也看得很清楚。我們正在努力——我們在這裡的使命是支持客戶的去碳化努力，並確保我們具備所需的技術與解決方案。現在我們做出這些承諾時，也把正在發生的更廣泛去碳化趨勢納入考量。當然，在支持這個趨勢的過程中，我們一路上將需要進行投資，而我們會以逐案（project-by-project）的方式來評估。而且我們之前也說過，這些投資顯然都需要符合我們的投資標準。

They will, of course, be supported by incentives and carbon pricing or carbon penalties as the case might be, which actually makes that economic case necessary for that transition to successfully happen as we move forward. So I fully expect us to kind of see those economically feasible cases work out, ones that will actually have to meet our investment criteria as we support this broader transition for industry. As you know well, Tony, whatever we emit ourselves is really there to ensure that we're helping our customers either abate, avoid or completely eliminate emission, and that goal continues to be what we'll focus on going forward.

當然，這些投資也會受到激勵措施與碳定價或碳罰則（視情況而定）的支持，而這其實使得那個經濟可行性成為必要條件，讓這項轉型在我們往前推進時能夠成功發生。因此，我完全預期我們會看到這些在經濟上可行的案例逐步落地——而且它們確實必須符合我們的投資標準——同時我們也在支持產業更廣泛的轉型。Tony，你很清楚，我們自身的任何排放其實都是為了確保我們在幫助客戶減排（abate）、避免（avoid）或完全消除（completely eliminate）排放，而這個目標仍將是我們未來持續聚焦的重點。

We'll take our next question from Peter Clark with Societe Generale.

我們接下來的問題來自法國興業銀行（Societe Generale）的 Peter Clark。

Congratulations to Sanjiv and Steve for one hell of a deal. And I guess the share price reflected the thought that went in the transition there. I've got 2 big picture questions really.

恭喜 Sanjiv 和 Steve 完成了一筆非常了不起的交易。我想股價也反映了大家對這次交接所投入思考的看法。我有兩個比較宏觀的問題。

Looking at the engineering backlog and the way it's grown, I think, Steve, you were commenting not long ago that you saw a 50-50 as sort of a very nice mix in terms of what was internal, what was external. Obviously, as the cycle is picking up with [scoring] now we're at 75-25, just your thoughts on that, except obviously, you're looking at your return criteria, et cetera, but just your thoughts on that as we go through the cycle?

從工程積壓訂單（engineering backlog）以及其成長方式來看，我記得 Steve 你不久前提到，你認為 50-50 在內部與外部之間是一個非常好的組合。顯然，隨著景氣循環回升、現在又有[scoring]，我們變成 75-25。除了你們當然會看報酬標準等等之外，想請教你對於在這個循環過程中出現這種變化有什麼看法？

And the second one is your comments about best days ahead, hopefully. Obviously, your return on capital now is 200 basis points above where Praxair were 10 years ago at the peak. Just wondering your thoughts on the return on capital, obviously, a lot of momentum to support that, but how you see this sort of on a structural basis as we move forward?

第二個問題是你提到「最好的日子還在前面」，希望如此。顯然，你們目前的資本報酬率（return on capital）比 Praxair 在 10 年前高峰時還高出 200 個基點。想請教你對資本報酬率的看法：當然有很多動能支撐，但你如何看待未來在結構性層面上的走勢？

Are we structurally higher now with the -- all the benefits of the merger against what we thought we could get in gases prior to that? Those are my 2 questions.

我們現在在結構上是否已經更高了——也就是把併購帶來的所有效益，對照我們在併購前對氣體業務原本能達到的水準？以上是我的兩個問題。

Well, given I'm not going to be the CEO past March 1, I really don't want to provide too much long range thinking about return on capital. But I think if you go back to what I said about being able to take growth, convert it to higher levels of profitability, good capital management. Over the time, we should be able to march the return on capital number up a little higher.

嗯，鑑於我在 3 月 1 日之後就不會再擔任 CEO，我其實不太想對資本報酬率做太多長期的展望。不過我想，如果你回頭看我剛才提到的：能夠承接成長、把成長轉化為更高的獲利水準，以及良好的資本管理。隨著時間推進，我們應該能把資本報酬率這個數字再往上推一點。

With respect to the 50-50 comment, if you think about -- when we book sale of gas projects, they typically are in the hundreds of millions of dollar range. So if you look at the TSMC project, that's $600 million of capital investment that would be tied for our largest with Samsung. So when we see sale of gas, it tends to be -- that's a very big project.

至於 50-50 的評論，如果你想一下——當我們簽下現場供氣（sale of gas）專案時，通常規模都是數億美元。所以如果你看台積電（TSMC）這個專案，那是 6 億美元的資本投資，會和三星並列成為我們最大的專案之一。因此，當我們看到現場供氣時，往往——那就是非常大的專案。

And clearly, we landed some very large projects, third-party projects with Linde Engineering, and that obviously shifted the weighting in terms of whatever that is, 75%, 80% of the total backlog is -- third-party sales is driven by these very large projects.

而且很明顯，我們透過林德工程（Linde Engineering）拿下了一些非常大型的第三方專案，這也顯然改變了權重；也就是說，總積壓訂單中大約 75%、80% 是第三方銷售，而這是由這些非常大型的專案所驅動的。

Matt alluded to this. These very large projects have very strong contractual terms. They're very high-quality contracts, I will say. We have cash flows that -- incoming cash flows that certainly are well ahead of our cost outlays as we work through these projects. So they're excellent projects, and we're delighted to have them.

Matt 也提到過這點。這些非常大型的專案有非常強的合約條款。我會說，它們是非常高品質的合約。我們的現金流——流入的現金流——確實遠遠領先於我們在執行這些專案時的成本支出。因此它們是很棒的專案，我們也很高興能拿到。

We'll take our next question from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們接下來的問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 David Begleiter。

Looking at EMEA in Q3, can you quantify the amount of power costs or cost pass-through or we captured during the quarter?

看第三季（Q3）EMEA 的表現，你能否量化一下本季電力成本的金額，或成本轉嫁（cost pass-through）/我們在本季所捕捉到的部分？

Yes. So David, this is Matt. That's not a number we're going to provide publicly. But I think if you look at kind of the sequential margin profile and you adjust for the stated cost pass-through, that obviously associates itself with the on-site business. Some of those differentials could -- of the remaining amount are things that we would want to be going chasing related to some timing related.

可以。David，我是 Matt。這個數字我們不會對外公開提供。不過我想，如果你看一下序列性的毛利率/利潤率走勢，並且針對已揭露的成本轉嫁做調整，那顯然主要會對應到現場（on-site）業務。剩餘部分的一些差異，可能是我們想要去追補的，與某些時點（timing）因素有關。

And as you can imagine, EMEA has a much larger package and merchant percent than on-site. So that will also play into having a larger proportion of cost that need to be captured on a delay. And one thing I just want to be clear on is, this lag is normal. This lag is inherent in the industry.

而且如你所想，EMEA 的瓶裝與商用（packaged and merchant）占比遠高於現場（on-site）。因此也會導致有更大比例的成本需要在延遲後才能被捕捉/回收。我想特別說清楚一點：這種落後（lag）是正常的，這種落後是這個產業固有的。

We have faced this lag since our inception going back decades. It just so happens in this particular quarter, the movement of the energy prices, the movement of some of these numbers are faster in a shorter time period. So given that, you're going to have some recovery, that will be next quarter and the quarter after. But EMEA would be probably disproportionately larger than most other regions with that lag, just given the packaged and merchant exposure.

從我們創立以來、回溯數十年，我們一直都面對這種落後。只是剛好在這一季，能源價格的變動、以及其中一些數字的變動，在更短的時間內變得更快。因此在這種情況下，你會看到一些回收會發生在下一季以及再下一季。不過就這種落後而言，EMEA 可能會比大多數其他區域更為明顯，主要是因為瓶裝與商用的曝險較高。

Got it. And given that, would you expect price mix to accelerate further in Q4 from the 3% we had in Q3?

了解。那在這樣的背景下，你是否預期第四季（Q4）的價格/組合（price mix）會比第三季的 3% 進一步加速？

So as I stated in the prepared remarks, yes, we absolutely anticipate and expect the pricing momentum to continue, and this is something that as we go and recover this that will play into it. So that's our expectation.

如我在事先準備的發言中所說，是的，我們絕對預期並期待定價動能會持續，而當我們去回收這些成本時，這也會反映在其中。所以這就是我們的預期。

We'll take our next question from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

我們接下來的問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Jeff Zekauskas。

The backlog and first sale of plant went up $6 billion sequentially. Can you talk about what it is that you're going to build? If you can talk about the customers, that would be great. If you can't, but how did it grow so much? And does that mean that your CapEx order of magnitude is now going to be, I don't know, $5.5 billion higher than you thought over a number of years to execute that?

積壓訂單與第一方售廠（first sale of plant）按季增加了 60 億美元。你能談談你們將要建造什麼嗎？如果你能談到客戶，那就更好了；如果不能，那也沒關係，但它為什麼會成長這麼多？另外，這是否意味著你們未來數年為了執行這些案子，資本支出（CapEx）的量級會比你們原先想的高出——我不知道——大約 55 億美元？

And then lastly, so if you're getting, I don't know, $480 million into your cash flow statement from prepayments, but I take it that, that then will -- you'll fund that with capital expenditures later on. So in a certain sense, your cash flow from operations is overstated. Can you talk about those issues?

最後，如果你們在現金流量表中因預收款（prepayments）而增加了——我不知道——4.8 億美元，但我理解那之後你們會用後續的資本支出把它花掉。所以某種意義上，你們的營運現金流（cash flow from operations）被高估了。你能談談這些問題嗎？

Yes. Maybe David, I could start with the cash and then Sanjiv could talk about the backlog project itself. So just to make sure we level-set and get the accounting correct. This is sale of plant, so this never touches CapEx. This is under percent completion accounting. So what happens is the backlog that we have actually translates essentially 1:1 to sales, $1 backlog equals $1 sales.

可以。也許 David，我先從現金的部分開始，然後 Sanjiv 可以談談積壓訂單的專案本身。先確保我們把基準拉齊、把會計處理說清楚。這是售廠（sale of plant），所以它完全不會碰到資本支出（CapEx）。這是採用完工百分比（percent completion）會計。也就是說，我們的積壓訂單基本上幾乎是 1:1 轉換成營收，1 美元的積壓訂單就等於 1 美元的營收。

And as we construct it, it goes to inventory and then when we meet the criteria, it's released out of inventory to sales. So therefore, it never actually hits CapEx, given the nature of how the structure works. And then as the prepayments come in, they sit on the balance sheet as a liability.

在我們建造的過程中，它會先進到存貨（inventory），然後當我們符合認列條件時，就會從存貨釋出到營收。因此，基於這種結構運作的性質，它實際上不會打到 CapEx。接著，當預收款進來時，它會先在資產負債表上以負債的形式列示。

And then obviously, we work and deliver the performed work, which then goes against that liability to relieve that liability as we deliver. So this is a classic percent completion accounting style. So given that -- and maybe let's talk about the cash flow real quick. In this business, in this industry of engineering and percent completion, when you're in a declining backlog, what tends to happen is your cash outflows are obviously higher than your inflows because you are delivering on the work, the engineering, the procurement and you basically think of like a book-to-bill ratio, right?

然後很明顯地，我們會執行並交付已完成的工作，並以此沖減該負債，隨著交付而解除該負債。這就是典型的完工百分比會計模式。所以在這樣的前提下——另外我們快速談一下現金流。在工程業務與完工百分比這個產業裡，當積壓訂單在下降時，通常會發生的是：你的現金流出顯然會高於流入，因為你正在交付工作、進行工程、採購，你基本上可以把它想成像是接單出貨比（book-to-bill ratio），對吧？

So as your book-to-bill ratio starts to drop and drop and drop, you're going to have more cash outflow than inflow. Now that trend is reversed. So we've actually had more outflow than inflow over the last few quarters because we were building off a backlog that was shrinking. Now it has grown dramatically, that process is reversing. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we have a few quarters. We expect some prepayments given the size and increase of this. And then we'll work them down over the next several years as the outflows go, but you still have more backlog that if you win, it can

因此，當你的接單出貨比（book-to-bill ratio）開始一路下滑、下滑、再下滑時，你的現金流出就會多於流入。現在這個趨勢已經反轉了。過去幾個季度我們實際上是流出多於流入，因為我們是在消化一個正在縮小的在手訂單（backlog）。現在在手訂單大幅成長，這個過程正在反向進行。如同我在事先準備的發言中提到的，我們接下來會有幾個季度。我們預期會有一些預付款，因為這個規模與增幅都很大。接著在未來幾年，隨著相關支出發生，我們會把它逐步消化，但你仍然會有更多的在手訂單；如果你贏得新案，它可以

mitigate that.

緩解這種情況。

So that's how to think about this. It's not in CapEx. That's why I said in the prepared remarks, the growth that we have is much greater than what's being shown in CapEx because of this delivery. And as Sanjiv had mentioned, we're going to be probably mid-single digit in terms of our contribution. So hopefully, that makes sense, but I can hand it off to Sanjiv to talk about the project.

所以這就是看待這件事的方式。它不在資本支出（CapEx）裡。這也是為什麼我在事先準備的發言中說，我們的成長幅度遠大於CapEx所呈現的，因為有這些交付所致。而且如Sanjiv提到的，就我們的貢獻而言，可能會是中個位數百分比。希望這樣說得通；不過我可以把話交給Sanjiv來談這個專案。

Thanks, Matt. So Jeff, let me just kind of talk through the project a little bit and give you a little bit of color on that. So we have the $6 billion incremental 2 large wins that we're talking about are the reason why you're seeing this significant buildup in our backlog.

謝謝，Matt。Jeff，我簡單帶你過一下這個專案，補充一些背景。我們所談的額外60億美元、兩個大型新增得標，是你看到我們在手訂單顯著累積的原因。

We are very happy with these projects, I have to tell you. They are with a very high-quality customer. I am going to name the customer now just for you, which is Gazprom. It's a customer with whom we have excellent relationships. We have got great experience thus far. We have got solid contract terms, which makes us pretty comfortable around taking on these large projects.

我必須告訴你，我們對這些專案非常滿意。它們的客戶品質非常高。我現在就特別為你點名這位客戶：Gazprom。我們與這位客戶的關係非常好；到目前為止的合作經驗也很棒。我們拿到的合約條款很扎實，讓我們對承接這些大型專案相當有信心。

Also, as Matt kind of referenced, strong cash flows. I want to remind you also that these cash flows tend to come in, the inflows are ahead of any commitments we make. So we tend to be net positive as far as our cash curves are concerned. And of course, it's in an area where we've got good experience of execution. So again, you put all of that together, that's kind of the projects.

另外，如Matt剛才提到的，現金流也很強。我也想提醒你，這些現金流通常是先有流入、才會有我們做出的任何承諾；因此就現金曲線而言，我們往往是淨正向。當然，這也是我們在執行上很有經驗的領域。把這些因素綜合起來，這就是這些專案的概況。

Now what are we building? Let me just give you a little bit of color on that. So we are building some GPPs. So these are gas processing plants for Gazprom at the site called Ust-Luga. And we're also building a separate project also at that same site, which is a separate win, but an important one also is an LNG plant for them. I expect natural gas developments will continue given the energy kind of challenges that the world is seeing. And this is kind of a major milestone as Gazprom have continued down the path of investing in that space.

那我們在建什麼？我再補充一些細節。我們正在建一些GPP，也就是在Ust-Luga這個場址為Gazprom興建的天然氣處理廠（gas processing plants）。同時我們也在同一個場址建另一個獨立專案，這也是另一個得標、同樣重要：為他們興建一座LNG工廠。我預期在全球面臨能源挑戰的情況下，天然氣開發仍會持續。這也算是Gazprom持續投資該領域道路上的一個重要里程碑。

Okay. Great. And then secondly, I think your cash balance was $4.7 billion. Is that too much? What should your normal cash balance be as you manage your cash flows?

好的，很好。第二個問題，我想你們的現金餘額是47億美元。這會不會太多？在管理現金流時，你們正常的現金水位應該是多少？

Yes, Jeff, I can answer that. Well, when you're getting paid to take commercial pay for 65 basis points, you do end up with a little bit of a grossing up of your cash in your CP. So yes, we're still getting paid up to 5 years on the curve with Europe. So our cash balances are swelling a little bit. Now those are U.S. dollar cash balances, so they are earning a return, but we're also earning a return on what we're borrowing.

是的，Jeff，我可以回答。嗯，當你以商業票據（CP）65個基點的成本就能拿到資金時，你的現金與CP部位確實會有些放大。所以是的，我們在歐洲那邊的利率曲線上，最長到5年期仍然是「拿錢還能收利息」的狀態。因此我們的現金餘額有些膨脹。這些是美元現金餘額，所以它們有在賺取報酬；但同時，我們借入的資金也在賺取報酬。

So at this point, that is causing a bit of the swelling. But as you've seen between our projects that we're undertaking, between some of the shareholder-friendly actions we're taking, we're going to keep working those cash balances down.

所以目前這造成了一些膨脹。不過如你所見，隨著我們正在推進的專案，以及我們採取的一些對股東友善的行動，我們會持續把這些現金餘額降下來。

We'll take our next question from Geoff Haire with UBS.

下一題我們請UBS的Geoff Haire提問。

I just wanted to ask a sort of slightly longer-term question and maybe to Sanjiv. Obviously, the sustainability targets you've put out are great, but I think you did mention that to achieve the sort of 20 -- the 30 by 35, you need government support. What happens if you don't get it? What can you do yourself without any government support, particularly thinking about green hydrogen and other sorts of areas?

我想問一個稍微偏長期的問題，可能請Sanjiv回答。顯然你們提出的永續目標很棒，但我記得你們提到，要達成那個20——也就是35年達成30（30 by 35），需要政府支持。如果拿不到支持會怎麼樣？在沒有任何政府支持的情況下，你們自己能做些什麼？特別是從綠氫以及其他領域來看。

Thanks, Geoff. It's a good question. So I think when you think about the sustainability targets that we've put out there, 35 by 35, there as -- you have to think about the framework within which this is happening. So clearly, there are activities that we can undertake and we are undertaking today, which will continue to move in that direction.

謝謝，Geoff。這是個好問題。我想談到我們提出的永續目標——35 by 35——你必須把它放在其發生的框架下來看。很明顯地，有一些我們可以做、而且今天也正在做的事情，會持續推動我們朝那個方向前進。

These are efficiency programs. This is about fleet replacement, et cetera. So there are a number of initiatives that are ongoing and will continue to -- we'll continue to work towards, which will execute towards that. But it's also correct to say that even today, there are government initiatives and government incentives available. So we're not suggesting that there is a complete void over here and then we need a complete kind of remake of that.

這些包括效率提升計畫、車隊汰換等等。所以有許多倡議正在進行中，也會持續推進——我們會持續朝那個方向努力並加以落實。不過也確實要說，即使在今天，政府的倡議與政府的獎勵措施也已經存在。所以我們並不是在說這裡完全是真空，然後需要徹底重建一套制度。

In the U.S., we have the 45Q that is being effectively utilized to look at investment profiles like this. Now I have to be honest and tell you that much rather that 45Q, which currently provides $45 to $50 per ton of CO2, be anywhere between $90 to $110 per CO2. That's where I would see the inflection point with momentum for development of these projects would significantly ramp up because there'd be an economic case for it.

在美國，我們有45Q，正被有效用來評估這類投資案的投資輪廓。坦白說，我更希望45Q目前每噸CO2提供45到50美元，能提高到每噸CO2 90到110美元。因為我認為那會是動能的拐點，這些專案的開發速度會顯著加快，因為那樣就具備經濟可行性。

In Europe, clearly, there's the ETS, the trading scheme that is currently valuing CO2 anywhere between EUR 60 to EUR 65 per ton. So again, as we see that move forward, where there is a plan similarly in Canada and South Korea and Australia, I could name a number of countries where these incentives or penalties are coming into play today.

在歐洲，顯然有ETS，也就是目前的排放交易制度，對CO2的定價大約是每噸60到65歐元。因此同樣地，隨著它往前推進——加拿大、南韓、澳洲也都有類似規劃——我可以列出很多國家，這些獎勵或懲罰機制今天就已經在發揮作用。

So we're working in that environment. We think that more support is necessary. But there isn't a complete lack of support. So a number of our projects will be relying on the support infrastructure that's available through the incentives and penalties to leverage all that to continue down that decarbonization trend. And of course, as we look longer term to carbon neutrality in our assumption when we think about our road map, clearly, we've got some levels of support available.

所以我們是在這樣的環境下運作。我們認為需要更多支持，但並不是完全沒有支持。因此，我們的一些專案會依賴現有的支持性基礎設施，也就是透過獎勵與懲罰機制來槓桿運用，持續沿著去碳化的趨勢前進。當然，從更長期來看，當我們在路線圖假設中思考碳中和時，很明顯我們是有一定程度的支持可用的。

They range anywhere between $100 to $200 per ton of CO2 in equivalent terms, longer term to make sure that we get to that level of the neutrality that we're talking about -- climate neutrality that we're talking about as being the goal that we achieve by then.

長期而言，這些支持以等值計算大約落在每噸CO2 100到200美元之間，以確保我們能達到我們所談的那個中和水準——也就是我們所說的氣候中和——作為我們屆時要達成的目標。

I'll just put a point on Sanjiv's excellent response to that. If you think about decarbonization and the cost of capturing and the cost of sequestration, it can vary $80 to $120, something like that. And to really tip the scales in terms of capital investment to decarbonize, you're going to need something like that in terms of a carbon price. So up until now, the 45Q can work in certain projects. It's $50, the low carbon fuel standard in California provide some support, too. But as we look forward to really make meaningful strides of decarbonization, you're going to need a stronger carbon price. That's our view.

我補充一下Sanjiv非常好的回覆。如果你思考去碳化、捕捉成本與封存成本，它可能落在80到120美元左右。要在資本投資上真正讓去碳化「天平傾斜」，你需要差不多那樣的碳價。到目前為止，45Q在某些專案上可行；它是50美元；加州的低碳燃料標準也提供一些支持。但往前看，若要在去碳化上取得真正有意義的進展，你需要更強的碳價。這是我們的看法。

Our next question comes from P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

下一題來自花旗的P.J. Juvekar。

On your Slide 18, the slide on blue hydrogen, is that where you're seeing some order activity today? And then looking at your joint venture with ITM in electrolyzers, how do you see blue versus green hydrogen backlog, let's say, in the next 5 years? And are your industrial customers wanting to go to blue hydrogen first before thinking about green hydrogen?

在你們第18頁投影片、關於藍氫的那頁，你們現在看到的訂單活動是在那裡嗎？另外，看看你們與ITM在電解槽的合資企業，未來5年你們怎麼看藍氫與綠氫的在手訂單（backlog）？以及你們的工業客戶是否想先轉向藍氫，再來考慮綠氫？

P.J., the way I'm going to answer that question is to kind of take you back a step and just to remind you of some of the messaging that we provided in the previous earnings call. So I've said before that when people think about what hydrogen is most appropriate, one of the things you have to think about is the strength individual countries have, the assets that they have, where countries today have -- hydrocarbon assets have natural gas as an asset, we firmly believe that they will pursue the path of blue hydrogen because that is the most meaningful way to kind of move forward on this transition. The reason it's meaningful is because it's to scale. It can be done today, and we're not waiting for technology developments to happen.

P.J.，我回答這個問題的方式是先帶你退一步，提醒一下我們在上一通財報電話會議中傳達的一些訊息。我之前說過，當人們在思考哪一種氫最合適時，其中一個要考量的是各國自身的優勢、他們擁有的資產。對於今天擁有——擁有碳氫資產、把天然氣視為資產的國家，我們堅信他們會走藍氫路徑，因為那是推動這個轉型最有意義的方式。之所以有意義，是因為它可以規模化；今天就能做；我們不需要等待技術發展才開始。

And I'll talk about ITM in a minute, but you'll hear me reflect that comment over there as well. So the answer is where we see that natural gas resource available in the U.S. and Canada, Australia, Russia, Middle East, we believe -- we know that those countries are actively pursuing, and we are looking at a number of counterparties over there as partners looking at some of those developments ourselves.

我稍後會談到 ITM，但你也會聽到我在那邊呼應那個評論。所以答案是：我們看到美國與加拿大、澳洲、俄羅斯、中東等地都有可用的天然氣資源；我們相信——也知道——那些國家正在積極推動，而我們也正在那邊與多個交易對手方洽談作為合作夥伴，並且我們自己也在評估其中一些開發案。

So -- and the Slide 18 gives you a sense that Linde Engineering's technology portfolio allows us to be able to flex any technical solution. We are uniquely positioned to provide that technical solution for blue hydrogen output, whether it's using an SMR, whether it's using an ATR or whether it's using POx gasifier. We have the ability and technology to provide the technology packages, execute them and operate them ourselves because of the expertise we have. So that's as far as blue hydrogen is concerned, and I do see a lot of momentum building up in that space, and we are very active in that space as well.

所以——第 18 張投影片讓你了解，林德工程（Linde Engineering）的技術組合使我們能夠彈性提供任何技術解決方案。我們具備獨特優勢，能為藍氫產出提供技術解決方案，不論是使用 SMR、使用 ATR，或是使用 POx 氣化爐。我們有能力與技術提供技術套件、執行並且憑藉我們的專業自行營運。因此，就藍氫而言，我確實看到這個領域的動能正在快速累積，而我們在這個領域也非常積極。

Let's talk about ITM and order kind of intake and backlog going forward. Now you're asking me to project 5 years out. I have to tell you, the only thing I'm going to project 5 years out is to tell you that the technology road map that we have going with ITM through our joint venture with them is to make sure that, that product scales up and that product then has the capital efficiency and operating efficiency in scale up to be able to then execute projects of a reasonable size.

我們來談談 ITM，以及未來的接單（order intake）與在手訂單（backlog）。你現在是在要我做 5 年後的預測。我必須告訴你，我唯一願意做 5 年後的預測是：我們透過與 ITM 的合資企業所推動的技術路線圖，是為了確保該產品能夠放大規模，並在放大後具備資本效率與營運效率，從而能夠執行規模合理的專案。

I'm going to give you a very quick example of that. So today, as we are building Leuna as you know, you've heard us announce this before. We're building a 24-megawatt electrolyzer complex there. Those 24 megawatts will come from 2-megawatt modules. That's the largest PEM electrolyzer module available in the world today. We're working with ITM to scale that up. We are hoping to scale that up based on our technology road map in literally months to 5 megawatts and then beyond that to 20 megawatts, et cetera.

我給你一個非常快速的例子。今天，如你所知我們正在建造 Leuna，你也聽過我們之前宣布過。我們正在那裡建造一座 24 兆瓦的電解槽綜合設施。這 24 兆瓦將由 2 兆瓦模組組成。那是目前全球可用的最大 PEM 電解槽模組。我們正與 ITM 合作把它放大。我們希望依照我們的技術路線圖，在短短幾個月內把它放大到 5 兆瓦，之後再到 20 兆瓦等等。

At that point in time, a 100-megawatt module, again, projects that we are actively working on today that are getting some preferential positioning as far as some European funding is concerned as well. Those will then move from 50 units of 2 megawatts, which you can imagine on the most efficient structure, to maybe 5 units or 20 units of 5 megawatts or 5 units of 20 megawatts as scale-up happens along the way.

到那個時點，100 兆瓦的模組——同樣地，我們今天正在積極推進的專案，也在歐洲資金支持方面獲得一些優先定位——將會從 50 個 2 兆瓦單元（你可以想像在最有效率的結構下）轉變為可能 5 個或 20 個 5 兆瓦單元，或是 5 個 20 兆瓦單元，隨著一路上的規模放大而發生。

So the fact that, that scale up is happening, the fact that the technology road map is providing that capital efficiency and economies of scale is happening right now and preparing us for what's likely to happen in the next 5 years. I don't want to speculate at this stage as to what that likely backlog might look like 5 years down the road, but clearly, I'm encouraged by the developments I see.

因此，規模放大正在發生、技術路線圖正在帶來資本效率與規模經濟，這些都正在此刻發生，並讓我們為未來 5 年可能出現的情況做好準備。我不想在此階段推測 5 年後在手訂單可能會是什麼樣子，但很明顯，我對我所看到的發展感到鼓舞。

Great. Thank you for the detailed answer. As you look at this technology road map and green hydrogen costs coming down, where do you see that? I know Steve had commented on some numbers maybe a year ago. And what about this production tax credit of $3 for green hydrogen? How would that play out?

很好。謝謝你如此詳細的回答。當你看這個技術路線圖以及綠氫成本下降時，你認為會走到哪裡？我知道 Steve 大概在一年前評論過一些數字。另外，綠氫每公斤 3 美元的生產稅收抵免（production tax credit）呢？那會如何發揮作用？

P.J., that production tax credit is actually very -- it will be a very good supporting mechanism. We talked earlier on about in the previous question about how we see the incentives support the development, that $3 per kg will be a good support mechanism. We obviously have to read the rules and it hasn't yet come through. So I'm looking with some eagerness to that coming through and getting an understanding of how that -- how those rules come into play. But that would be encouraging. Clearly, we believe that there is an opportunity here for us to move forward.

P.J.，那項生產稅收抵免其實非常——它會是一個非常好的支持機制。我們先前在上一個問題中談到，我們如何看待激勵措施支持發展；每公斤 3 美元將會是很好的支持機制。我們當然必須閱讀規則，而它目前還沒有正式出來。所以我很期待它落地，並了解那些規則如何——如何適用。但那會令人鼓舞。很明顯，我們相信這裡有機會讓我們繼續向前推進。

Steve mentioned to you in the past that if we get hydrogen, blue or green, green, obviously more challenged in this reference, at about between $1 to $2 per kg, it's at that point that you see an inflection point and you see widespread adoption of technologies utilizing hydrogen and really hydrogen becoming a reasonable fuel in the portfolio fuels we'll have. We'll always have fossil fuel, at least for many decades ahead. But it will be a more important part of that portfolio of fuels and energy basket as it will. Steve, do you want to add something?

Steve 之前跟你提過，如果我們能把氫——不論是藍氫或綠氫（在這個脈絡下綠氫顯然更具挑戰）——的成本降到每公斤約 1 到 2 美元之間，那時你就會看到拐點，並看到使用氫的技術被廣泛採用，而氫也會真正成為我們燃料組合中合理的一種燃料。我們仍會有化石燃料，至少在未來許多十年都是如此。但氫會成為燃料組合與能源組合中更重要的一部分。Steve，你要補充嗎？

Okay, Sanjiv, I'll add something. So yes, just to build on that, I mean, if you were to look at the cost of hydrogen today and you were to use the U.S. Gulf Coast, which obviously, we produce a lot of hydrogen, we use a lot of hydrogen in the U.S. Gulf Coast. Gray hydrogen is about $1.30 a kilogram, and that's at $5.50 natural gas. Carbon capture would add another $0.40, $0.50, maybe you're in the $1.7 range sort. And if you think about green, it's like about $4.5 a kilogram.

好的，Sanjiv，我補充一下。是的，延續剛才的說法，如果你看今天的氫成本，並以美國墨西哥灣沿岸為例——很明顯我們在美國墨西哥灣沿岸生產大量氫，也使用大量氫——灰氫大約是每公斤 1.30 美元，這是以天然氣 5.50 美元計算。碳捕集會再增加 0.40、0.50 美元，可能就落在大約 1.7 美元的區間。而如果你想綠氫，大概是每公斤 4.5 美元。

And out of that, probably $2.50, you call it, is the renewable power cost. And so if renewable power was free, then you would still have $2. And we all know renewable power isn't free. So we have some work to do to bring those costs down in terms of capital costs, operating costs. And as you were to work that down below that $2 number, then you've got a chance to have something competitive.

其中大概有 2.50 美元（你可以這麼稱呼）是再生能源電力成本。所以如果再生能源電力是免費的，你仍然會有 2 美元。我們都知道再生能源電力不是免費的。因此，我們還需要做一些工作，把資本成本、營運成本等降下來。而當你把成本降到 2 美元以下時，你就有機會讓它具備競爭力。

So you need the combination of low-cost renewable, low-cost capital, lower cost -- operate low-cost capital and better efficiencies and then you can drive that number lower. And I would say ideally below $2, but certainly in that range would be is what's needed.

所以你需要低成本再生能源、低成本資本、更低成本——以低成本資本運作並提升效率的組合，然後你就能把那個數字再往下拉。我會說理想上要低於 2 美元，但至少在那個區間內，就是所需要的。

And our last question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的 Vincent Andrews。

David, it looks like he has an issue. I think with that, we can wrap it up. For everyone on the line, thank you so much for attending today's call. For your reference, a copy of our transcript will be posted on our website within the next 24 hours. Thank you for listening. And anything else, let me know. Take care.

David，看起來他那邊有點問題。我想既然如此，我們就可以結束了。線上的各位，非常感謝你們參加今天的電話會議。供各位參考，我們的逐字稿副本將在接下來 24 小時內發布在我們的網站上。謝謝收聽。如果還有其他事情，請告訴我。保重。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以中斷連線。